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A.L. Total of the Month

10* Tigers/Twins over the total

Looking at the two pitchers tonight one would think that by looking at the over all season numbers this game should easily go under. Sanchez does have a 2.45 ERA on the road and Santana does have a 2.99 ERA overall for the season. However, we will look look closer at their last three starts and Sanchez has a 4.91 ERA while Santana has a 3.98 ERA. With those numbers we see pitchers that are not in great pitching form.  The Tigers bullpen is worn down is worn down and has been awful all season with a 7.17 ERA on the road this year. The Twins bullpen has not been great either as they are sporting a 5.07 ERA at home. All of these indicators look like it's going to be a nice night for the hitters.

The Twins are 60-31 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is also 41-17 OVER vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The over also falls into two situations our ours that are a combined 107-35 over the last 5 years. Take the over tonight.

American League Game of the Month

10* NY Yankees

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N.L. Game of the Month

10* Atlanta

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10* over

10* Reds/Rockies over 12.5

This is an extremely high total being set for this game but it should be high as these two pitchers are really struggling and are facing two quality offenses. The Rockies are avg 5.9-runs at home with a .290 BA. Homer Bailey may be nearing the end of his career as he has allowed  14 ER over his two starts this year. Over is 7-0-1 in Bailey's last 8 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.  The Reds are 51-26 OVER with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Kyle Freeland has given up 9 ER and 17 hits over his last two starts and with the thin air in Colorado on a hot day we look for him to continue that trend today giving up a ton of hits.  These two teams usually score some runs when they face each other in Colorado as the over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Colorado.

8* LA Angels +103

JC Ramirez comes into this game in poor pitching form as he has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts but most of the damage has been done when he pitches at home. On the road this year he is a different pitcher with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.2.15 WHIP. Angels are 6-0 in Ramirez's last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Kyle Gibson is struggling at home this year with a 7.08 ERA at home at 6.11 ERA overall. Twins are 1-5 in Gibson's last 6 home starts.

An interesting trend this year as the Angels are 12 against the money line when playing on Tuesday.  The situation favors the Angels in this one as play against any team (Minnesota) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)- AL, after scoring 8 runs or more (41-22 over the last 5 years).

10* LA Angels +113

We have a nice live dog situation here with the Angels as Minnesota is 10-20 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season. Alex Meyer seems to have found his groove as he has a 2.94 ERA over his last three starts. Angels are 7-1 in Meyers last 8 starts with 4 days of rest. 

While Meja has pitched well for the Twins his last htree starts, he still has a home ERA of 6.10 and a 1.749 WHIP. Look for the Angels to take advantage of his ineffectiveness at home today as the Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  When Minnesota plays at home in what Vegas perceives as a close match-up they do not do well. MINNESOTA is 28-48 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Twins are 9-29 in home games after 3 consecutive games versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

8* Boston -113

Tough to go against the Red Sox now as they are starting to hot their stride overall as a team. After scoring 15 runs yesterday we will use that good hitting form and roll it over into the humid state of Texas where the ball will travel tonight.  While Porcello does not have great overall numbers this and overall numbers against Texas. Looking closer he has pitched well in Texas only allowing 7 earned runs in his last 5 starts there.

8* Miami/St. Louis over 9.5

Both pitchers going today are in poor pitching form. Adam Wainright has a 7.20 ERA over his last three starts and Jeff Locke has a 7.24 ERA over his last three starts. Over is 25-11-5 in Marlins last 41 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 21-9 in Wainwrights last 30 starts overall.

8* Twins/Royals over 10 (-113)

The Twins starter Hector Santiago comes into this game in poor pitching form as he has 10.97 ERA over his last three starts with 1.874 WHIP. He has a career 4.42 ERA vs the Royals so we expect the Royals to have a lot of base runners today and to capitalize on that. The Royals Travis Wood makes his first start of the season but he is not a solid starting pitcher and we expect him to have some rust today.

This game falls into a great OVER situation as you want to Play Over - Any team (KANSAS CITY) - poor AL hitting team (AVG less than .260) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA greater than 4.50), hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 5 games. The over is 32-8 over the last 5 seasons in this situation.  

Also, Minnesota is 61-33 OVER vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons.

10* Boston +104

The Red Sox are playing very well lately as they are 5-1 their last 6. Drew Pomeranz has pitched very well lately with 1.53 ERA with a 1.019 WHIP over his last three starts. He opposes Joe Biagini who is not good pitching form. He actually qualifies for us in poor pitching form.  Over his last three starts he has a 9.75 ERA with a 2.167 WHIP. Biagni has not pitched well at home either as he is 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA.  With the Red Sox bullpen being dominant this Pomeranz just needs to give them 6 solid innings which he will do with the form he is in.

Toronto is 2-9 this year after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season. The Blue Jays are a play against team in this one as you play against home teams - poor AL offensive team better than 4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA less than 3.33), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP greater than 2.000 over his last 3 starts (37-11 since 1997)

Take the Red Sox today

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American League Game of the Month

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Interleague Game of the Month

10* Pittsburgh

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Run-Line Game of the Month

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