3* Penn St

4* Nevada

3* Arizona St

3* Colorado

3* Alabama

3* Toledo

4* Western Michigan

4* SMU pk

4* Texas A&M

4* San Diego St +2.5
Utah's true colors have shown the last two weeks as they have been dismantled by TCU and Notre Dame. SDSU is an improving football team and are looking for a signature win in the program. Even though Utah is ranked, we feel SDSU has the better team based on who each team has played. The crowd at SDSU will be electric for the first time in years and SDSU is motive to win 10 games this year (includes bowl game0. With only UNLV on deck all emphasis is on this game as this is the biggest game in San Diego in a while for a team not names the Chargers. San Diego St 37-27

3* UAB -20
Memphis has the worst pass defense in the country allowing 9.1 yppa. UAB should exploit that weakness pretty easily this week. We firmly believe Memphis has packed it in for the season while UAB is playing for pride and have show improvement this year. UAB will look to put the hammer down in this one at home if they get a chance. UAB 41-13

3* California +6.5
We were on Cal last week as a 4* play and won. We like the way they are playing defense down the stretch. Don't look for an emotional letdown this week as this is one of the biggest rivalries in college football. We also went against Stanford last week and won. Stanford has an excellent team but we Cal's defense could prove to be too much in this game. Cal falls into an 87-37 bounce-back system of ours that we really like with underdogs from 3.5-10 points. Cal plays their best at home as they are 13-3 ATS in all home lined games the last three years. Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of Stanford. Our ratings have Stanford -5. We will call for Cal upset. Cal 27-24

4* Colorado +2.5
There seems to be a sense of relief in Boulder with the firing of Dan Hawkins. The Buffs responded well last week beating a decent Iowa St team. With that positive momentum they now take on a team where they are pretty evenly match-up with talent wise. KSU struggles defensively and will give up some points in this one. Colorado falls into a 23-6 positive momentum situation while KSU falls into a 8-33 negative stat match-up system of ours. Our ratings have Colorado -3. Colorado 33-27

3* Duke +10.5
GTech without Nesbitt is not the same team. They struggled last week and are just an average to below avg offensive team without him. Duke comes into the game a team that is playing better winning 2 out of their last three including losing as tough game last week at home to Boston College. GT has lost three in a row and we don't see any room for improvement. Duke falls into a 39-12 stat match-up system we like while GT falls into a negative 5-29 stat situation. Duke is improving while BT is not. Georgia Tech 28-27

4* Troy +21.5
With South Carolina having already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game last week at Florida, how in the world can they get up for this game? If Spurrier can get his team prepared and focused on little ole Troy, we will be stunned. Troy has talent but has not played up to their capabilities all season. They will be motivated in this one. Troy can score and with the spread being as large as it is it always leaves a room for a back-door. Troy won't need it. South Carolina 38-24

5* Boston College -7.5
BC is turning it on at the right time of year. They can become bowl eligible with a win. Their defense has been outstanding all year and we look for it to continue this week. They allow 4.4 yppl to teams that combine to avg 5.4 yppl. Virginia won't be able to run on them as BC allows 2.5 ypr and Virginia only avg 4.2 ypr vs. teams that combine to allow 4.5 ypr. BC has won three straight and our ratings call for a fourth straight win and cover. BC 34-13

3* Toledo
Bowling Green seems to have packed it in for the season. Toledo is coming off an embarrassing loss on nation tv last week. Look for them to rebound and play at a high level tonight. Toledo 37-17

3* Arizona
USC is terrible defensively and we called for ASU to get the ATS win last week and they did (4* executive play for us). This week they face a motivated Wildcat team coming off a bad loss at Stanford as they were never really in the game. Nick Foles made his return last week and did not look good. He should do better this week against a Trojan defense that allows 7.8 yppa. Arizona crowd will be loud and into it. USC did get upset last year at home to Arizona and this years UA team is much better. Our ratings have Arizona

4* California
Yes, yes, we know how great Oregon

3* Arizona St
Stanford has a high-powered offense and is 8-1 SU this season. However, they are only 5-4 ATS. ASU is 4-5 SU but 6-3 ATS. They are an underrated team and a dangerous team this time of year. ASU is avg 5.8 yppl and 32.1 ppg. Their numbers increase at home as they avg 42.0 ppg and 6.5 yppl. Stanford can move the ball and score, as they are avg 42.3 ppg but only avg 36.0 ppg on the road. ASU has an underrated defense as they allow 5.1 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.4 yppl. They did hold Oregon to only 338 yds for the game at home. Stanford has a HUGE rivalry game on deck at Cal and could get caught in a look a head situation. ASU had a chance to beat USC last week but missed a late fg. Our ratings have Stanford

4* Oklahoma
Oklahoma is a completely different team at home than on the road. They are 5-0 at home and 3-2 ATS and avg 40ppg. Texas Tech is coming off a 24-17 upset win at home and it sets them for a letdown on the road. Oklahoma is 16-7 ATS off a SU loss under Stoops and really needs to put the throttle down this week coning off their 2nd loss of the season. Texas Tech allows 5.7 yppl and Oklahoma has much better offense than they have shown this year. The Sooners are only avg 5.3 yppl but have faced defenses that combine to all 5.2-yppl. We see Stoops taking no prisoners in this game. Tech destroyed OU last year and the Sooners have not forgotten that. OU will be motivated in this game and get the big win. OU falls into a 40-13 statistical match-up system that goes against certain road underdogs with a poor pass defense. Oklahoma 48-24

5* College Game of the Month: Georgia
With all the controversy surrounding Cam Newton it would be pretty incredible if Auburn came out and played a great football game. No one is sure if Newton will be eligible or not and that is major distraction for Auburn. Auburn has a poor pass defense allowing 63.3% and even though their numbers state that they allow 6.5 yppa it is against teams that combine to avg 7.3 yppa. Georgia QB Aaron Murray will give the Tigers all they can handle as he avg 61.5%, 9.0 yppa and 18:6 ratio. Georgia has enough offense to keep this game close and possibly pull the upset. Georgia avg 6.1yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.6 yppl. Georgia defense is only allowing 19.4 ppg vs teams that combine to avg 25.1 ppg. Coach Richt does his best coaching job usually against the better teams on the road. Richt is 20-9 ATS in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of Georgia. Richt is 17-7 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) as the coach of Georgia. Our ratings have Auburn

3* Cincinnati
Zach Calleros is expected to return against WVU and he very well could be the deciding factor in this game. Calleros was having a great year until he got hurt early in the USF game. Cinci last los two straight and they really struggled to move the ball against Syracuse at home with back-up Chazz Anderson. Calleros is avg 61.8%, 8.5 yppa and 20:5 ratio. WVU pass defense is very good but have not seen a QB like Calleros all season. WVU has faced below average pass offenses combining for 6.1 yppa. Cinci will look to throw more this game now that Calleros is back. West Virginia is below average offensively as they avg 5.2 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl. Cinci should be able to neutralize the Mountaineer avg offense. Cinci needs to win 3 out of their last 4 to become bowl eligible so they will be motivated in this one. West Virginia falls into a 5-31 stat system on going against home favorites in a certain statistical position that we like. With Calleros back and WVU just average on offense, look for Cinci to pull the upset and take one more step to being bowl eligible. Cincinnati 23-17

3* Miami Fl
With Jacory Harris getting hurt for Miami it may be a blessing in disguise for them. Harris has been extremely inconsistent and many were calling for Frosh back-up Stephen Morris anyway. Morris led the Canes to a come form behind win last week against Maryland and performed very well completing 18-30 for 286 yards and 2 td

4* Arizona St
If that were USC's bowl game last week and they put everything they had into that game, how can they get up for playing Arizona St at home? There are negative momentum situations and this is one of them. USC has been talking about the Oregon for weeks and they got whipped. They somehow have to regroup and face a team they should beat on talent alone. ASU is not as bad as their 4-4 record may indicate. ASU is avg 5.8 yppl and 32.0 ppg. They are 2-1 their last three games so they have some confidence coming into this game. Last year ASU only lost to USC 14-9 and ASU is better defensively this year. ASU is allowing 5.1 yppl but have to face a potent offense like USC's. USC defense is allowing 6.2 yppl and will give up some points here. Arizona St may just stun USC in this game as they line has gone down from 7 to 5.5 and that is not public money. Our ratings have USC -6 but this is game they just won't get up for while ASU is extremely motivated. USC 28-27

3* SMU
Both teams come into this game at 5-4 SU. Looking at the numbers closely, SMU is the better team. SMU is avg 6.6 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.8 yppl. On defense, SMU is allowing 5.1 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.6 yppl. SMU has surprisingly been able to run the ball very well this year, as usually in June Jones systems the QB's are the stars. SMU is avg 5.3 ypr vs teams that combine to allow 4.3 ypr. UTEP does not stop the run as they allow 4.7 ypr vs teams that combine to avg 3.6 ypr. SMU will pound the football in their run and shoot offense and that should leave the UTEP corners in man-to-man coverage and open up the passing game. UTEP hasn't beaten anybody and the games they have lost they have not played well in. SMU is the better team and the linesmakers originally set the opening line at SMU -8.5 and it has dropped. Our ratings have SMU -7. SMU get a bigger win on the road, as they are the better team. SMU 34-23

3* Florida International
Florida International -9.5 - La Monroe comes in off an upset win against Troy and that sets an average team up in a road letdown situation for us. FIU is an improved football team even though their record is 2-5. They have played a difficult schedule this season as their non-conference games were Rutgers, Texas A&M, Maryland, and Pittsburgh. So they have been tested against quality teams. FIU rates the better offense, defense and strength of schedule. La Monroe applies to poor letdown situation 28-55 off of upsetting a team at home as a double-digit favorite. FIU 30-16

3* Arkansas
Arkansas has a potent passing attack led by Ryan Mallet. Mallet is avg 9.5-yppa, 66% and 18:7 ratio. Mallet and company now face the worst pass defense in the SEC in South Carolina. The Cocks are allowing 7.8 yppa and 66%. This sets it up for a big game from Mallet. Arkansas has a solid defense as they are allowing 5.2 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.6 yppl. The key for Arkansas will be there pass defense. Steven Garcia avg 9.8 yppa but does not get as many attempts as Mallet does. Garcia has become an efficient QB but we don't see him having great numbers in this game as Arkansas is allowing 6.9 yppa. If Mallet can protect the football and not have more than 2 turnovers in the game, Arkansas should win this game. Petrino is 26-11 ATS after a win by 17 or more points in all games he has coached. Our ratings have this game at even and computer calls for a 1-point Arkansas win. Arkansas 34-33

3* Navy +3
At the beginning of the year we had Navy rated much higher than ECU but ECU has done a nice job getting to their 5-3 SU record. Navy has underachieved this year, as they are also 5-3. Navy does a great job running the football as they avg 4.8 ypr. Defensively ECU gives up 4.5 ypr to teams that combine to avg 4.3 ypr. Look for Navy to pound the football and control the clock in this game. Navy runs on average 67 plays per game while ECU defense gives up 75 plays per game. We look for Navy to run about 70-75 plays with their ground game and picking up many first downs on the run. Offensively, ECU avg 5.6 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.5 yppl this year. Navy has been solid defensively allowing 5.4 yppl. Navy has just enough of a defense and a solid running game to get the upset win today. We love teams that control the clock and move the chains and play solid defense. Navy has an opportunistic defense, as they are +8 in TO margin while ECU is -1 in TO margin. East Carolina is banged up defensively so that won't help either, as they are not a very deep team. Our ratings have this game at a pk. Navy 34-28

4* BYU
Looks like UNLV has packed it in for the season as they have not been competitive their last 4 games (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS). BYU will always play hard for HC Mendenhall. UNLV is allowing 37.9 ppg this year on defense and 6.6 yppl. This is just the type of game that BYU needs at home to get some confidence back. They did beat up on Wyoming but the final score showed otherwise as they only won by 5 at home. UNLV is playing a lot of true freshman right now and they counting the days til the season is over. BYU is 2-1 there last three (only loss was to TCU and they played pretty well defensively allowing 5.1 yppl). UNLV doesn't seem to respond well off of blowout losses as they are 1-6 ATS when lose by 17 or more points. BYU also falls into a 36-10 statistical match-up system. Our ratings have BYU -23 but BYU gets a bigger win. BYU 38-9

3* Army
Air Force coming off an emotional loss at home against nationally ranked Utah and now has to travel across country and play another rivalry game. Air Force has the offensive edge and defenses are about even. Air Force has played the tough schedule as well. Not sure how much more the Falcons will have in the tank after last weeks loss. Army will be bowl eligible with an upset win and they will be focused in this game as they only had VMI last week and used it as a tune up for Air Force. Army falls into a 73-33 statistical match-up system. We will call for the upset. Army 24-23

5* Illinois
Looks like Michigan are in one of their end of the year funks under Rich Rodriguez. They have lost three SU and four ATS. Their defense is absolutely pathetic as they are allowing 6.1 yppl. Their last three games they are allowing 6.7 yppl. Michigan can score and have a prolific offense led by Denard Robinson but in this game they take on an underrated Illinois defense. Illinois is allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that combine to avg 5.6 yppl and rank in the top 25 in pass efficiency defense. Illinois over their last three games has tightened up the defense even more allowing 4.6 yppl (2 of the 3 had above average offenses, Indiana and Michigan St). We have not been high on Rich Rodriguez as the head coach of Michigan and his schemes are not fitting well defensively in The Big Ten. Michigan is 1-11 ATS against conference opponents over the last two year. Illinois looks like they are turning their season around and we will ride a team playing much better right now and with a lot of confidence. Illinois falls into a 27-4 system of ours since 2000 and that system is 3-0 this year. Illinois 34-27

3* Western Michigan
WMU is coming off an emotional loss at home to Northern Illinois where they had a chance to tie at the end of the game. WMU now mst gear up for another emotional game as they take on their arch rival CMU. CMU has won the last 4 in the series, largely due to the fact of NFL QB Dan Lefevour. WMU is 3-5 but has not had a quality win this season and the same goes for CMU, as they are 2-7 SU and their only two wins were against Hampton and Eastern Michigan. Both teams are rate closely on the offensive side of the ball. CMU has a slight edge on defense (we took out the Hampton game because they are an atrocious FCS team). The game could very well come down to special teams where WMU has a huge edge in that category. CMU has lost 6 straight and they are 1-5 ATS during that span. WMU ahs played better offensively their last three games avg 32.3 ppg and 6.0 yppl. Legitimate revenge for the Broncos in this one. WMU 30-27

4* Ohio U
Buffalo comes into the game 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS and is playing about as a bad as a team can play right now. They have lost 3 straight and ATS by a combined score of 108-23. For the season they are avg 4.2 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl. Their passing game has been atrocious avg 5/4 yppa vs teams that combine to allow 6.8 yppa. Looks like Buffalo are sticking with Alex Zordich and he has been horrible avg 5.3 yppa, 46.8% and 0:3 ratio. Buffalo has been pretty good defensively at the line of scrimmage as they are allowing 4.8 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.2 yppl. Their special teams have been a disaster as well. We don

3* Central Florida
Both teams come in with 3-game winning streaks and playing very well. East Carolina has surprised a lot of people this year with their consistent play especially on the offense side of the ball. There is no question that ECU can score points, as they are avg 36.9 ppg. But when looking at them closely are they really that good? They are also avg 5.7 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.6 yppl. They look like just an average offensive team even scoring that many points. Defensively, the Pirates are terrible as they allowing 35.3 ppg and 5.7 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.6 yppl. This is the game where it catches up to ECU. They now take on one of the most underrated and best defensive teams in the country. UCF is only allowing 4.2 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.3 yppl and 13.9 ppg. UCF should be able to shut down ECU

4* Troy
Troy is the best team in the Sun Belt Conference and is coming off a bye. They did not play well in their last game as they only beat La-Lafayette 31-24 as 20.5 pt favorites. Troy should be well rested as they have only played 2 games since Oct 5. Troy is avg 6.0 yppl and 34.8 ppg. They should be able to get to that avg this week and then some as face a UL Monroe team that is allowing 31.7 ppg and 5.9 yppl. Middle Tennessee St just buried UL Monroe last week and Troy is a much better team than MTSU. La Monroe

5* Iowa
Iowa let a lot of people down last week defensively as they couldn

4* San Diego St
SDSU disappointed us last week as they just went through the motions against New Mexico. They won

3* Miami, Fl
Miami, Fl is clearly the more talented team in this game. The question all season however is, which Miami team will show up. Last week the Canes dominated UNC. Miami needs to get on a roll as HC Shannon is on the hot seat. Virginia is not a good football team. They are 3-4 this year but their 3 wins are against Richmond, VMI and Eastern Michigan. Miami

3* Pittsburgh
Louisville is 7-2 ATS at Pittsburgh but has dropped their last two games by over 25 points. Louisville comes into this game winning 3 out of their last 4 and just blew out Connecticut. Overall, the Cards offense has been able to get back on track this year, as they are avg 6.7 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 6.0 yppl. Their rushing game has really done well this year avg 5.6 ypr vs teams that combine to allow 4.4 ypr. However, they face a very stout and tough Panther defense. The Panthers only allow 4.7 yppl and that is .9-yppl better than average. Pitt only allows 2.9 ypr vs teams that combine to avg 3.9 ypr. So look for Louisville to throw more in this one. Pitt

3* Western Michigan
We were on NIU big last week as we released them as a top-rated 5* to all of our premium clients and have been on them 3 of the last 4 weeks. NIU is clicking right now on all cylinders are clearly the best team in the MAC. NIU owns this match-up, as they are 10-2 ATS since 1992 but WMU is 8-6 SU. WMU is finally heading home after they were on a long 3 game road trip (2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS). WMU is playing much better recently as they are avg 6.4 yppl and (compared to avg 5.2 yppl on the season). QB Carder is avg 7.1 yppa but is finding a nice groove right now. WMU is defense is slightly improving the last few weeks but will have a tough test in this one. NIU is avg 6.2 yppl and they are doing a great job running the ball avg 5.6 ypr vs teams that allow 4.6 ypr. WMU allows 4.6 ypr and will have their hands full. WMU falls into two statistical match-up systems of 67-30 and 72-33. Our ratings have NIU

3* WVU/Conn under the total - Both teams come into this game off of losses however WVU was upset as 14-point underdog at home. WVU has the talent edge in this game but UConn has the better coach. UConn though this was going to be their year to get to the Orange Bowl but it doesn

3* San Diego St
This game is a complete statistical mismatch. How bad is New Mexico to be 24-point underdogs at home to San Diego St? Here

3* Marshall
This game features two teams going in opposite directions. Marshall is struggling at 1-5 SU and ECU has won 2 in a row and is 4-2 SU. ECU is coming off an emotional overtime win last week as an underdog at home vs NC State. This sets ECU up for a major letdown this week. Marshall struggles to move the ball and score but statistically they are not that bad of team. They may only be avg 4.9 yypl but they have faced teams that combine to only allow 4.8 yppl. Marshall is only avg 18.3 ppg but has faced teams that combine to allow 20.5 ppg. So looking at those numbers they may not be as bad of an offensive team as one would think considering the defenses they have faced. ECU has clearly been winning with their offense, which is very explosive. However, their defense is very poor allowing 6.1 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.7 yppl. Their pass defense hasn

5* Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is rolling right now winning 4 in a row SU and ATS and have a ton of positive momentum while CMU is struggling losing 4 in a row SU and 1-3 ATS. CMU has allowed 7.0 yppl the last three games and can

3* Baylor
Baylor comes into the game with an impressive road win last week at Colorado. This looks like a team that is really turning the corner and making great strides to building a very good program in the BIG XXII conference. Baylor is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS and continues to have an explosive offense. Over the last three games Baylor

3* Auburn
We all know that defense wins championships but for LSU to continue to beat high quality teams they have to start showing some offense. The defense can only stay on the field for so long and eventually it will crack and if a team like LSU gets down 2 td

4* Colorado
This is a must win for Colorado as HC Hawkins is on the hot seat. Colorado comes in to this game at 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS. The Buffs played Baylor well last week but it wasn

3* Maryland
Maryland dominated Clemson last week except the scoreboard and that loss last week set us up for good line value in this game. Maryland has the better team and they are the underdog in this situation. Maryland comes into the game a very underrated defensive team as they have only allowed 4.6 yppl. That is +.8-yppl better than average. Now they have not faced too many potent offenses but we are still impressed with their improvement defensively. BC really struggles offensively only avg 4.7 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl. They look like they have finally settled on a QB as they are throwing True Frosh QB Chase Rettig into the fire. He struggled last week against a very good and fast Florida St defense and will probably struggle again this week. It is very difficult for young QB

4* Notre Dame
Looks like ND it starting to hit their stride with new coach Brian Kelly. They have won 3 in a row SU and are facing the soft portion of their schedule over the next few games. Navy normally gives ND trouble with their wishbone attack but the Midshipmen are not as good offensively this year as they have been in the past. Navy is still running the ball well as they are avg 4.7 ypr vs teams that combine to allow 3.9 ypr but normally that number is higher and their production is much better inside the red zone. Navy ranks #109 nationally in red zone efficiency. QB Ricky Dobbs when needing to throw the ball is only avg 50% completions and has a 4:4 ratio. Notre Dame

4* Illinois
Illinois is coming off a disappointing 26-6 loss at Michigan St last week and were out-gained 5.3-3.7 yppl. Illinois has a very strong defense and over there last 3 games against Ohio St, Penn St and Michigan St, they have only allowed 4.9 yppl and 21.0 ppg. What is still hurting the Fughting Illini is their offense as they are only avg 5.1 yppl (and if you take out FCS Southern Illinois game it is worse). However, to their credit they have faced some TOP-NOTCH defenses. They get a nice break this week as they face a horrible Indiana defense at home so scoring should come a little easier for Illinois this week. Indians is allowing 6.7 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.7 yppl. Their rush defense will be exploited this week as they are allowing 5.5 ypr vs teams that combine to avg 4.8 ypr. While overall the numbers on offense for Illinois don

4* Hawaii - This should be a fun and entertaining game to watch last Saturday night! Nevada comes into the game the team many are starting to talk about as he team that could upset Boise this year. They need to first worry about a quality Rainbow team. Nevada is scoring a lot of points and has a very potent rush attack. Nevada is avg 6.7 ypr vs teams that combine to allow 4.9 ypr. However, what does Hawaii do well defensively? Stop the run. Hawaii is allowing 3.9 ypr vs teams that combine to avg 4.3 ypr. Hawaii is fast and physical defensively and will give the Wolfpack some issues. Nevda's defense is overrated as they are allowing 5.5 yppl but to teams that have combined to only avg 5.2 yppl. They have not faced an offense like this all season in Hawaii. Hawaii is avg 7.6 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 6.3 yppl. Even though Nevada's defense is better than what Hawaii has faced all season, we still feel that they will move the ball and score some points. Hawaii falls into a 36-12 home underdog system for us. We think Hawaii could pull the upset. Nevada 41-40

3* Mississippi St - One of the things we learned last week in LSU/Florida game is that Florida is not that good this year. The score was close last week but they got beat up by LSU. Florida is in desperate times as they have lost 2 in a row and could be out of the BCS picture with another loss. Florida's key skilled players are banged (Brantley and Demps) and will need a week or two to heal but they don't have a bye until after this game. Mississippi St comes into the game 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. Head Coach Dan Mullins used to be the OC at Florida and understands their personnel and schemes. Last year a much more talented Gator team went into Mississippi as 22.5 favs and only won 29-19. The Bulldogs are much more improved this year offensively as they are avg 6.3 yppl and 31.7 ppg. Defensively they are solid as well as they are allowing 5.2 yppl vs teams combined to avg 5.8 yppl. Florida still has the athletes on defense are doing a nice job only allowing 4.9 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5,7 yppl. Florida's offense just can't get on track and we won't see it happening this week as well. Until their skilled players get healthy the offense will still struggle. Mississippi St falls into an 80% system playing against home teams off a loss while they the road team just had a double-digit win. Urban Meyer should have his team focus this week but MSU is talented enough to keep the game close. It should be a low scoring as both teams have solid defenses. Florida 23-20

3* La Monroe - Western Kentucky is -2.5 in this game? This team hasn't won a game in 2 years and they are favored? Must be because they are home, we guess. Anyway, both teams stink but La Monroe has more talent and you don't want to play against streaks. Plus, our ratings have La Monroe -1.5 and computer calls for a 24-20 win. We like La Monroe as the public is on WKU for whatever reason. La Monroe 24-20

4* Troy - Troy is the best team in the Sun Belt conference and their offense is doing another great job this season. Troy is avg 80 plays per game, so they are wearing down defenses. They are also avg 487 yppg and 6.1 yppl. They have faced defenses that are slightly below avg as they have combined to allow 5.7 yppl. Troy will be able to move the ball against La Laf as they Louisiana is allowing 5.9 yppl. La Lafayette is struggling on offense only avg 4.7 yppl to average defenses. Look for Troy to control the line of scrimmage and put the hammer down at home. Troy as won 2 straight vs UL and will easily make it 3 straight today. Blakeney is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of TROY. They will continue to put yardage and points up today. Troy 45-16

4* Oklahoma St - The Red Raiders come into this game a team that is has nowhere the near the offensive capabilities that it has in prior years. They did score 45 points against Baylor but were outgained on a per play basis. Oklahoma St comes in with a great offensive attack avg 52.6 ppg! They are avg 6.8 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.9 yppl. They are doing a great job in the passing game as they are avg 8.7 yppa. They should no problem moving the ball against Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders have not faced as potent of an offense as this all season. The Red Raiders just played a very good Baylor team but gave up 537 yds of offense and 6.8 yppl. Expect much more of that this week. OSU defense has been solid as they are allowing 4.8 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.5 yppl. With Texas Tech's offense only avg 5.5 yppl we just can't see Texas Tech scoring more than 27 points in this game. Oklahoma St 37-27

5* California - How is USC still favored in this game? They are one of the most overrated teams in the country. We didn't even have them in the top 20 at the beginning of the season. They are favored because everyone still thinks that this is USC from prior years. Well, it isn't. They have an unproven coach and no depth up front on offense or defense. Since Cal was blown out on national tv by Nevada, they have played extremely well defensively (Arizona and UCLA). Cal is an underrated football team that because they were blown out on tv to Nevada and then lost to Arizona, many think they are not that good. They responded well by blowing out UCLA last week. Cal will be able to move the ball against a very poor USC defense. USC is allowing 6.2 yppl on the season and 6.6 yppl over their last 3 games. They don't have the depth like they have had in years past and that is slowly catching up to the Trojans. Cal's running attack with Shane Vereen (5.7 ypr. 8 td's) and Isi Sofele (5.4 ypr) should prove to be too much for USC's defense. USC has been able to move the ball offensively as they are avg 7.2 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 6.2 yppl. They now must face the best defense they have faced all season as Cal ranks 4th nationally y in pass efficiency defense. Cal falls into a great system where you play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (USC) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a home win by 17 points or more, 38-11 since 1992, 77.6%. Our ratings have Cal -3 and they are a team to watch out for the rest of the season and USC is a team that we feel will freefall the rest of the season. Cal 34-24

3* Ohio University - Akron is as bad of a football team as they come. The Zips come in at 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS. Their defense is allowing 37.8 ppg and 6.2 yppl. They have only faced below average teams (-.1yppl) on offense and their defense is still giving up a ton of yards and points. Their offense is absolutely dreadful as they are avg 4.2 yppl against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl. The Zips are only avg 16.8 ppg to a schedule of teams that have combined to allow 25.8 ppg. There were high hopes for Ohio U coming into the season and they are starting to play into form as they have won 3 straight up and ATS. Their 3 wins this year have been against poor defensive teams (Marshall, Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green). They now take on another horrible defensive team in Akron and we fully expect Ohio U to control the line of scrimmage and the time of possession in this game. Ohio U is 8-1 ATS against a conference rival the last three years. Coach Solich knows how to pound bad teams as he is 12-3 ATS when playing against a terrible team (less than 25% win percentage) while at Ohio U and 14-3 overall as a head coach. Teams that struggle to move plays right into the schemes of Coach Solich. Ohio U's defense has been solid only allowing 5.1 yppl, so don't look for a lot of scoring by Akron in this one. Ohio U 34-9

3* Maryland - We have said it all year and we said it last week, Clemson is as poorly coached a team as there is in college football. Since blowing the game at Auburn, they have collapsed. 3 straight losses for the Tigers (0-3 ATS) have them in disarray as usual. Maryland is an underrated football team this year as they are only allowing 5.3 yppl (taking Morgan St stats out of the mix). That is +.2 yppl better than average defensively. Their offense struggles with Jamarr Robinson at QB continue, as he is only avg 2.3 ypr and 7.2 yppa. Robinson is probably for Saturday's game but Marland should stick with QB Danny O'Brien as he his avg 7.9 yppa and 6:0 ratio. Clemson continues to be an overrated and average football team. Take the Presbyterian game out of the mix and they are just average on offense. Maryland will be able to keep it close, as the spread is just too big. Marylandis +8 in turnovers (+1.60-margin) and Clemson is +1 (+.20/margin). So expect Maryland to win the turnover battle here. Maryland has upset Clemson two years in a row winning both games by 3 points. The talent is about the same at both schools and Maryland has a coach who makes adjustments and has won in the past. Our ratings have Clemson -12.5 but we think it will be closer. We will take the generous points and the better coach. Clemson 34-26

4* Southern Mississippi - Memphis is one of the 10 worst teams in college football as they have absolutely no offense and a terrible defense. Memphis is avg 4.3 yppl, which is -1.4 yppl below average. They have faced average defenses all season that combine to allow 5.5 yppl and they still can't move the ball. Their defense is allowing 6.3 yppl and their pass defense is atrocious allowing 8.1 yppa. Look for Southern Miss to air it out and get a big win on the road. They are coming off an upset loss to ECU at home last week and will be focused in this game. Our ratings have Southern Miss -18 and computer calls for a 20 point win. We will call for a bigger win as our computer is being kind. Southern Miss 34-10

4* Central Florida - The Knights come into the game with a very underrated defense and not much national publicity for their defense. They are quietly putting up some great numbers defensively. Defensively they are only allowing 4.2 yppl vs teams that combine to avg 5.5 yppl. Also, they are only giving up 13.8 ppg. The teams they have faced are just about average offensively but they are dominating those average teams. UCF has covered three straight and have good momentum heading into this game on the road. Their offense hasn't been as good as their defense but still averaging 5.5 yppl. That is a little below averaging considering the defenses they have faced have allowed a combined 5.8 yppl. UCF should have no problems in this game airing it out as Marshall is has an extremely poor pass defensive allowing 7.8 yppa to teams that combine to avg 7.1 yppa and 65% completions. UCF will throw the ball a lot in this game with their 2 QB's, Jeff Godfrey and Rob Calabrese. Both are more than capable of throwing the football as Godfrey is avg 7.6 yppa and Calabrese is a little better at 8.1 yppa. Overall, Marshall is allowing 5.7 yppl and that's against teams that combine to avg 5.5 yppl. Marshall will have problems moving the ball against a tough UCF defense as they only avg 5.0 yppl. UCF has a terrific run defense and even better pass defense. With UCF's offense improving and the defense rock solid look for a big win by UCF on the road. UCF is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in road games all together the last 2 seasons. UCF 31-13

4* Arizona State - ASU is an underrated football team and have had some tough losses this year playing quality opponents. Their offense is moving the ball well and scoring points. ASU is avg 6.1 yppl and should be able to move the ball against a poor Washington defense that is allowing 440 ypg and 6.6 yppl. The Huskies are allowing 32.5 ppg this year and will probably give up close to that this week. The key will be if ASU can stop Washington. We think they can as their defense is underrated only allowing 5.4 yppl. The situation favors ASU as they catch Washington coming off an emotional win on the road at USC and Dennis Erickson and his team has lost three straight and all of them were to quality opponents. We will take the desperate team who appears to be underrated. Arizona St 34-28

4* Tulsa/SMU Over the total - A look like Tulsa

3* Arizona - Arizona comes into this game 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS and off a bye week. They look like a team that has all the tools to give Oregon a run for the PAC-10 title. Oregon St comes into the game with a below average offense at 5.3 yppl. They faced quality defenses so far this year but it really seems like the offense is not clicking especially the passing game. Oregon St is avg 6.9 yppa and only 51% of their passes. Arizona does a great job at attacking and blitzing the QB and their pass defense is one of the best in the country at only allowing 5.3 yppa. Oregon St is going to have to establish the run game and it will be difficult as Arizona is only allowing 2.9 ypr against teams that combine to average 3.9 ypr. Oregon St is 3-1 with smoke and mirrors so far this year as well as their very good special teams play. Look for Arizona to be fresh off a bye and be motivated in this one and stay undefeated. Oregon St

3* North Carolina - What a great job Butch Davis has done this year with a depleted defense. How good would this team be if they had all of their stud players? They would be a top 10 team. Davis is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game in all games. UNC

3* Arkansas - The Aggies have turned the ball over 14 times the last three weeks and Jerrod Johnson has 8 int

3* Ohio U - Ohio U

3* Wisconsin - Wisconsin comes in off a tough road loss to Michigan St was playing on a lot of adrenaline and emotion after what had happened to their coach and their big win against Notre Dame. Wisconsin is going to look to take some frustration out on a very poor Minnesota team. The Badgers have not played well this year as they have high expectations for a BCS bowl berth. Taking the Austin Peay out of the statistical equation (70-3 win), Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS have a looked average on both sides of the ball. They now a face team that is horrible defensively especially against the pass. Minnesota is allowing 7.2 yppl on and that is almost 2 full yards below an average defense. Minnesota is also allowing 9.1 yppa on the season and this is absolutely awful. Wisconsin will not take Minny lightly and will respond back and pound a bad football team. Several situation favor Wisconsin and our ratings have them at

4* Virginia Tech - Looks like CMU may have been exposed last week at home against Ball St as they allowed 306 yards rushing and 7.1 ypr. They were big favorites of

3* Baylor - Baylor comes into the game with one of the most explosive QB

3* Under - Central Florida comes into this game 2-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Their team through the first four games of the season has lived of their defense. Their defense rates as one of the best in the country as they are allowing 4.2 yppl vs teams that combine to average 5.6 yppl. Their run defense has been tremendous allowing 3.2 ypr vs teams that combine to average 4.1 ypr. They are facing average rushing teams this year but when doing so they have been able to control the defense line of scrimmage and stop the run. This has forced teams to pass the ball more and their pass defense has been great only allowing 5.7 yppa vs teams that combine to average 7.5 yppa. Teams they have faced combined are .2 yppa better than average so it becomes very difficult to move the chains on offense and sustain drives against UCF

5* Stanford - This is one of the marquee games for week 5 college football and it should be a classic to watch. Both these teams are evenly matched on both sides of the ball. The one stat we found interesting is Oregon

3* Northern Illinois - The Zips are an absolutely horrible football team. They can't move the ball on offense and they can't stop anybody. On offense they are averaging 4.4 yppl vs teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl. On defense they are giving up 6.4 yppl, which is .1.1 yppl worse than average. They even lost to Gardner-Webb at home. They come in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against FBC teams. Their lone cover was last week against Indiana but they were outgained 6.9-5.9 yppl. Much of their offense was in garbage time with Indiana not putting their full effort. Northern Illinois is playing their 4th road game out of 5 to start the season but has performed very well to start the season. The Huskies are moving the ball well on the ground avg 6.7 ypr vs teams that allow 5.3 ypr. They will be able to continue to move the ball against the Zips run defense, which hasn't faced a running attack like this all season and is still allowing 4.5 ypr vs teams that combine to avg 4.3 ypr. NIU has the momentum and even though this is their 3rd road game in a row they play a hideous football team that is searching for answers on both sides of the ball. Our ratings have NIU -16. Northern Illinois 34-13

3* Tennessee - Is there a bigger fraud than LSU? They have won just about every game with smoke and mirrors and miracles. LSU

4* Kent St - Kent St has one of the best defenses in the MAC Conference and should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage in this game. The Golden Flashes come in to the game off a bye and losing two tough games on the road to Boston College and Penn St. Both of those teams have above average defense so Kent St couldn't move the ball especially on the ground. Miami, OH has a good run defense so Kent will have to air it out a little more. Spence Keith has completed 62% of his passes this year with a 4:5 ratio. Miami, Oh pass defense is allowing 7.4 yppa vs teams that combine to avg 6.9 yppa. They are also giving up 65.6% through the air so Kent should take advantage of this. Kent St defense should dominate an absolutely horrible Miami, Oh offense. The Red Hawks are avg 4.5 yppl vs teams that combine to give up 5.7 yppl. With Kent St only allowing 4.9 yppl to Penn St and Boston College combined, they should hold Miami, Oh in check. Kent has the better defense as well as the better special teams so look for points to be set up by turnovers and good kick returns. KENT ST is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Play Against - A home team (MIAMI OHIO) - after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 9 points or less last game, 39-11 over the last 5 seasons, 78%. Our ratings have Kent St -4. Kent with the situations, the bye week and better defense get the job done. Kent St 23-10

4* Kentucky - Kentucky has really beaten up on the bad teams this year going 3-0 SU and ATS vs Louisville, Western Kentucky and Akron respectively. It doesn't get that much worse of an opponent than those three. Last week the Wildcats stepped up in class and got hammered by Florida. What category does Ole Miss fall into this year? Well, we say not very good. Ole Miss beat a Fresno team last week at home that is not very good. So the oddsmakers are no thinking that Ole Miss is good once again and Kentucky won't beat anyone in the SEC. Kentucky's offense has been able to move the ball against the below average teams. The Rebels pass defense is terrible as they rank #103 in passing efficiency defense and their schedule has been very weak to start the season. Kentucky is avg 8.4 yppa vs teams that combine to allow 7.4 yppa. Look for the Wildcats to really expose this weakness of the Rebels. Kentucky is still an underrated team in the SEC and they definitely have the talent to beat Ole Miss. Ole Miss is -6 in turnover margin while Kentucky is +3. Look for the opportunistic Wildcats defense to help pout their offense and get the outright upset. Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OLE MISS) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse, 33-10 76.7 % since 1992. Our rating have Kentucky -1 and computer has Kentucky 31-27. With the situation, line value, computer and system all in place, we will definitely side with Kentucky to get the upset road win. Kentucky 30-26 final.

4* Temple - Both teams come in this game with positive momentum, as they are both 3-1 SU. Army is really benefiting from the opposing teams turning the ball over as they have a +9 turnover edge! Army really struggles to move the ball and score, as they are avg 4.9 yppl vs teams that combine to average 6.3 yppl. Army will need to win the turnover battle again in this one. Most of Army's yards come on the ground as they avg 275/per game. However, a close look at that they are only avg 4.5 ypr vs teams that allow a combined 5.1 ypr. Temple played Penn St really well last week (we had a 4* on Temple). They have been able to run the ball effectively as they are avg 4.2 ypr vs teams that combine to only allow 3.3 ypr. Temple's top runner Brandon Pierce (5.2 ypr) is listed as double for Saturday. Temple does have Matt Brown (4.0 ypr) to fill in with more of the workload if Pierce can't go. Army's defense can't stop the run allowing 4.4 ypr vs teams that combine to avg 3.8 ypr. This should be a grind it out ball control game. Temple 29-16 even if Pierce does not play

3* Baylor - The big intangible in this game is Robert Griffin who is having a great year after coming off a knee injury last year. Griffin is avg 7.7 yppa and has an 8:2 ratio. He really presents trouble for the opposing teams because of his ability to run the football. Kansas will have trouble stopping him in this one. Kansas lost to FCS North Dakota St at home 6-3 and then changed their QB. Kansas is till having issues moving the ball and were totally outplayed by Georgia Tech and destroyed by Southern Miss. Last week they took their frustrations out on one of the 5 worst teams in FBS in New Mexico St. Baylor should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air as we project them to have to outgain Kansas 6.7-4.8 yppl. They should win the turnover battle and also have better special teams. Add the home field advantage and Robert Griffin, who is the best player on the field, and Baylor gets a big a win at home. Our ratings have Baylor -14. Baylor 37-19

3* West Virginia - LSU is a fraud. The are now facing a team that runs a spread offense and will give them some trouble. LSU has the advantage at special teams but they struggle to move the ball. All the emphasis for WVU will be this week to have good special teams. This game stays close. LSU 19-16 final.

3* UTEP - Memphis is atrocious defensively and Mike Price will look to air it out tonight. UTEP plays very well at home. They get the blowout win. 41-17

3* Northern Illinois - Our rating have Minny -1 in this game and computer simulated game has NIU winning by 1. We like NIU's defense and ability to run the football against a poo Minnesota run defense. NIU 24-21

3* Ohio U - These are two bad offensive teams but Ohio has the talent edge and special teams edge. We like O to turn their season around with a potential outright upset. The game will be close and come down to a field goal. Ohio U 20-17

4* Temple - The Owls have a tremendous run defense and very good overall defense. We look for their defense to keep the game close today as not too many people around the country are giving them a chance. However, we do and think the game will be low scoring and close. Penn St 20-16

4* Arkansas - Do you think the Hogs have been waiting all off-season for this game? Sometimes teams can psyche themselves out pointing to a big game like this but Arkansas has a very good coach and had them focused on the road last week at Georgia and get the win. Alabama has played nobody this year with a significant offense(Penn St, San Jose St, Duke). Look for Mallet to move the ball down field and get points. Arkansas will need to get a couple of td's and not settle for just fg's and we think they will. The game will be close...Alabama 24-23

4* Florida St - Wake Forest has one of the worst defenses in the country as they are allowing 6.4yppl vs teams that average 5.7yppl. They have a decent offense as they are avg 5.8 which is a little over the national average. They go up against a very tough, physical defense that can put pressure on the qb. This is revenge game from a couple of years ago as FSU was dominated at home by the Deacons. Florida St 48-20