Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET

Game# 357-358

Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*)

It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games.

Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions.

Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017.

UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET

Game# 201-202

Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*)

Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:40 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Buffalo +3.5 (10*)

We all know how good Kansas City has been in recent years let alone being the winner of last year’s Super Bowl. Yet, we have the #1 seed Chiefs as just a 3.0-point to 3.5-point home favorite in this contest. Remarkably enough, even after Patrick Mahomes was cleared to play there was very little line movement if any at all. I am not fearful whatsoever of the sportsbooks. Nonetheless I enormously respect their ability to set an accurate line and adjust to the money coming in. With all that in mind, the oddsmakers are telling you this is an even game and there was an adjustment of 3.0-points made to the Chiefs for homefield advantage.

By the way, since their 26-17 loss to Kansas City in Week 6, Buffalo has gone 11-1. Their lone defeat came on an Arizona Cardinal miracle last seconds “Hail Mary Pass” from Kyler Murray to Deandre Hopkins that resulted in that 32-30 setback. The Bills are also an extremely profitable 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Since the start of last season, Buffalo has gone a sparkling 12-5 on the road and that includes a money-making 7-2 ATS when installed as an underdog. By the way, since Week 12, Buffalo is the #1 red zone offense and Kansas City is the #26 red zone defense in the NFL. The Bills one of just a few teams in the NFL that can match the Chiefs offensive firepower. Bet on Buffalo plus the points for a 5* wager.

Buccaneers @ Saints 6:40 PM ET

Game# 307-308

Play On: Saints -3.0 (10*)

Since 2017, Tampa Bay is a lousy 2-9-2 ATS as an away underdog of 6.0 or less. Moreover, the Bucs are a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS during its last 5 games versus New Orleans, and that includes 0-2 SU&ATS this season. Tampa was outscored in those 2 losses by 72-26.

New Orleans has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite and won by an average of 15.0 points per contest. Furthermore, since last season, New Orleans is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less and won by 11.0 points per game.

If you are wondering how a playoff home favorite of 6.5 or less does against a division opponent that have beaten twice during regular season action. Well, you came to the right place. This situation has occurred only 6 times since 1983 with Sunday’s game being the 7th. So, it’s rare indeed. However, it’s important to note, the previous 6 have seen the home favorite of 6.5 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS, and with a decisive average victory margin of 16.0 points per game. Bet on the Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Ohio State vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET

Game# 499-500

Play On: Ohio State +9.0 (10*)

The Buckeyes will continue to play with a chip on their shoulders tonight after being heavily criticized for making the College Football Playoff despite playing only 6 games at the time. Ohio State is one of the few and maybe even the only team in the country that can match Alabama’s offensive explosiveness. The Buckeyes defense has given up its share of yards this season, but they have also forced an eye-popping 18 turnovers in just 7 games.

Ohio State has racked 254 yards or more rushing in each of its last 4 games. The Buckeyes have outrushed their opponents this season by a substantial 184 yards per game. This qualifies by a high percentage college football betting angle which is shown below.

Any neutral field underdog that has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their last 3 games, and they’re outrushing their opponents on the season by 100 or more yards per contest, resulted in those underdogs going an extremely profitable 30-7 ATS (81.1%) since 1992. The average point-spread in those 37 games was 7.1, and the underdog also won 18 of those 37 games straight up. This precise betting angle came up in the previous game for Ohio State and they came away with a 49-28 blowout win over Clemson as a 7.5-point underdog. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Ravens @ Titans 1:05 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: Titans +3.5 (10*)

I hear a lot of talking heads giving a lot of love to Baltimore. One team that surely isn’t buying it is the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has beaten Baltimore in both of their meetings since last season and did so as an underdog on each occasion. During last year’s Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs the Titans knocked off Baltimore 28-12 as a 10.0-point road underdog. That was a Ravens team that entered the playoffs on a 12-game win streak, and they were favorite to win the Super Bowl. Then earlier this season, Tennessee turned the trick again by winning at Baltimore 30-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. There was a constant theme in those 2 victories. Tennessee and namely Derek Henry gashed the Baltimore defense on the ground for a combined 390 yards and 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. The Ravens stop unit will once again be hard pressed to stop Henry who rushed for over 2000 yards this season. They will also be challenged by an improved Titans passing game.

Since 1980, NFL Playoff home underdogs of 3.5 or less (Titans) that have a win percentage of .687 or better, and they are facing a non-division opponent with a win percentage of .764 or worse, resulted in those postseason home dogs going a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by a decisive 16.7 points per game. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

North Carolina vs. Texas A&M 8:00 PM ET

Game# 497-468

Play On: North Carolina +7.5 (10*)

Whenever I get a winning team with an explosive offense as an underdog like North Carolina is in this contest it always prompts me to do further investigation. This situation qualifies in the regard. North Carolina is 8-3 and they averaged 43.0 points scored and 556.5 yards gained per game. They have also scored 41 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games which includes a regular season finale 62-26 win at nationally ranked Miami. I like to use the boxing analogy when it comes to these high scoring underdogs. I compare them to knockout artists in boxing, you are never out of it because you have a punchers chance.

Texas A&M is 8-1, winners of 7 straight, and ranked #5 in the country. However, Aggies players and coaches alike were perplexed by being snubbed by the college football playoff committee. One school of thought is they will be out to make a statement in this matchup. In my experience, it’s quite the contrary, and college teams that have been snubbed in either football or basketball more times than not come out flatter than a pancake in their following game. This will be a textbook example of such. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Ohio State vs. Clemson 8:00 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Ohio State +7.5 (10*)

For starters, Clemson head coach Dabo Sweeney gave the Ohio State locker room plenty of motivational press clippings after voicing his displeasure on Ohio State being included in the 4-team playoff field despite playing only 6 games. The Buckeyes will also be playing with big time revenge stemming from last season college football playoff loss to Clemson 29-23. Ohio State squandered a 16-0 lead in that contest and lost despite having an edge in total yards of 516-417. Ohio State also held almost a 7-minute edge in time of possession advantage and current quarterback Justin Fields outplayed highly prized Clemson signal caller Trevor Lawrence.

Ohio State is allowing 97 yards rushing per game this season. Conversely, Clemson is averaging 164 yards rushing per contest. These rushing stats leads us to an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below.

Any college football neutral field non-conference underdog (Ohio State) that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent (Clemson) that averages between 140 to 190 yards rushing per game, resulted in those underdogs going 22-11 (66.7%) straight up since 1992. Since this straight up betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added relevance. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for my “College Football Game of the Year”.

Rams @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)

The Seahawks have been beneficiaries of a soft non-division schedule. As a matter of fact, 9 of its 10 non-division games this season came against opponents that currently have a losing record. The lone exception was at Buffalo (11-3) on 11/8 and they lost that contest 44-34 in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite.

The Rams should be plenty motivated this week after coming off an embarrassing 27-17 home loss as a 14.0-point favorite to the then 0-13 Jets. That defeat dropped their season record to 9-5 and forced them to relinquish first place in the NFC West back to Seattle (10-4). On a positive note, since 2018, the Rams are 11-4 SU&ATS on the road and immediately following a home game. Additionally, the Rams are 4-0 straight up this season following a loss and won by an average of 9.7 points per game.

Quality NFL teams coming off embarrassing losses have historically responded with a strong performance more times than not in their next contest. The Rams did win the first meeting with Seattle this season 23-16. It’s simple for the Rams, win and their chances to win the AFC West remains alive. Or lose and possibly end up as low as a #7 in the NFC come playoff time. If that occurs it would be a first-round playoff game at either Green Bay or New Orleans. Desperation and urgency will be the difference in this contest on Sunday which surely favors the Rams. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.

Kansas City @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET

Game# 365-366

Play On: New Orleans +3.0 (10*)

The Saints had their 8-game win streak snapped during last Sunday’s 24-21 loss at Philadelphia. They were not only defeated by an Eagles team that entered that contest with a dismal 3-8-1 record but was also starting a rookie quarterback who was making his first start of his career. In my estimation they were clearly looking ahead to this Sunday’s game against the defending world champion Chiefs (12-1) in what many have been tabbing as a Super Bowl preview. On a much more positive note, New Orleans has gone an outstanding 11-1 straight up in their last 12 following a loss in their previous game. New Orleans will also get an emotional lift as Drew Brees returns from injury to make the start. Nevertheless, I would have liked New Orleans in this spot with Brees or Taysom Hill under center. 

Arizona State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET

Game# 225-226

Play On: Oregon State +7.5 (10*)

Arizona State is coming off a 70-7 shellacking over their winless in-state rival Arizona last Saturday. The Sun Devils have played just 3 games this season and last week marked its first win. Now they travel to Oregon State against a 2-4 Beavers team that in recent years has been a PAC-12 doormat. However, this is a better than advertised Beavers team whose 4 losses came by just a combined average of 6.3 points per contest.

Arizona State has allowed an average of just 20 points per game this season despite surrendering 423 yards per game. The Sun Devils defense has bailed themselves out by forcing a whopping 11 turnovers in their 3 games played. However, they will be facing an opponent on Saturday which has only committed 6 turnovers in 6 games. Oregon State also averages a healthy 31.0 points and 450.3 yards per game in their 4 contests played at home. Bet on Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Wisconsin @ Iowa 3:30 PM ET

Game# 385-386

Play On: Wisconsin -2.0 (10*)

This opening line and the following substantial line movement really caught my eye. Wisconsin opened as a 3.0-point road underdog and at the time of this writing they have moved all the way to a 2.0-point road favorite. Of curse I checked Iowa’s injury list and COVID-19 situation to see if something within those categories prompted this large of a move but there was nothing of the sort. Iowa enters this contest on a 5- game win streak. However, their wins have come over 5 Big 10 Conference opponents that enter this week with a cumulative 10-20 record and all currently have losing records.

Wisconsin has lost 2 straight and scored only a combined 13 points in those defeats. However, they were plagued by 7 turnovers committed during those 2 games.  Another words, they stopped themselves more so than opposing defenses did. On a positive note, the 2-2 Badgers have been outstanding on defense while allowing a mere 12.3 points and 229.3yards per game. Iowa is solid offensively, but they are far from a juggernaut. Bet on Wisconsin for a 10* Top Play.

Indianapolis @ Houston 1:00 PM ET
Game# 455-456
Play On: Houston +3.5 (10*)

Houston is coming off a 41-25 win over Detroit. That win improved their season record to 4-7 (.363). Indianapolis is coming off a 45-26 loss to Tennessee. The combination of these results provides with a NFL betting angle which has won 85.1% of the time since 2011.

Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .363 or better that's coming off a win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or worse, and that opponent (Indy) is coming off a loss by 14 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 63-11 (85.1%) straight up since 2011.

Coastal Carolina @ BYU 5:30 PM ET
Game# 493-494
Play On: BYU -10.0 (10*)

This is a situation that I have to trust my eyes and professional intuition. I firmly believe that BYU could have at the very least competed for a title in any Power 5 Conference if afforded the oppotunity. Regarding strength of schedules neither of these teams rates highly. However, my personal eye test indicates that BYU is the more physical team on both sides of the ball and especially so on the interior line. BYU quarterback Zach Wilson is an NFL quarterback waiting to happen. Coastal Carolina relies heavily on their run game to move the ball with 65% of their offensive plays this season being rushing attempts. Conversely, BYU allows a mere 88 yards per game on the ground and just 2.9 yards per rushing attempt. This line speaks volumes to me with the #9 Cougars as a double-digit road favorite against the #14 and undefeated Coastal Carolina. Bet on BYU minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chiefs @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Tampa Bay +3.5 (10*)

Tampa Bay has been a resilient team thus far. Despite their somewhat disappoing 6-4 record thus far, they have shown an ability to bounce back strong from a poor performance. The Bucs are coming off a Monday night 27-24 home loss to the Rams in a game they were only able to muster 251 yards of offense. However, Tampa Bay has gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by an enormous 21.7 points per game. Included in those 3 wins was a 38-10 rout of the 7-3 Green Bay Packers.

I may be in the minority and that’s okay when I say that Tampa Bay may matchup better against Kansas City than any other NFC team. They have an outstanding wide receiver corps, quality tight ends, and running back Ronald Jones is having a career year. Their defense is #1 against the run for 2 seasons running, #6 in total yards allowed, and #4 in sacks with 32. Their linebackers are extremely athletic and that always helps when facing a mobile quarterback, the caliber of Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs have a weakness it has been their ineffectiveness in consistently stopping opposing running games. They rank #27 in that specific category while allowing 133.5 yards per game. The combination of Jones and Leonard Fournette are more than capable of exposing that potential weakness. That will open up the play action passing game for Tom Brady and his star-studded wide receivers.

LSU @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET

Game# 235-236

Play On: Texas A&M -14.5 (10*)

Thee first college football playoff rankings came out this week and 5-1 Texas A&M is #5. The Aggies can justify their ranking with a decisive win over defending national champion LSU on Saturday night. LSU is a mediocre 3-3 and is a shell of the team they were a season ago. The Tigers are coming off a gratifying 27-24 win at Arkansas. However, they are 0-2 SU&ATS this season following a win and allowed a combined 93 points in those losses to Missouri and Auburn. As a matter of fact, LSU has allowed 44 points or more and 506 yards or greater in all 3 of their losses this season. They will be facing a Texas A&M offense which has averaged 39.8 points scored and 460.0 yards gained during their current 4-gamee win streak. The Aggies only loss this season came at the hands of #1 Alabama. Texas A&M will also be out to revenge a humiliating 50-7 loss at LSU last season. The Aggies will enter this game with plenty of rest as they take the field for a first time in 3 weeks. Bet on Texas A&M minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cincinnati @ Washington 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Washington -1.0 (10*)

For starters, Cincinnati is an abysmal 0-16-1 straight up during their last 17 away games. Considering what this point-spread is, it would be difficult to ignore the Bengals most recent futility on the road.

Cincinnati will be facing a vastly underrated Washington defense which goes overlooked because of its current 2-7 record. However, the Washington stop unit ranks #7 in yards allowed per game (320.7), #5 in sacks with 28, and surrenders an NFL best 194.7 yards passing per game.

What has been even more encouraging for Washington backers is their team has shown some life offensively of late. During their last 3 outing, Washington has averaged 24 points scored and 421 yards gained per game. Veteran 36-year-old quarterback Alex Smith made his first start in a 27-24 loss at Detroit last Sunday. He was magnificent in going 38-55 for 390 yards passing. His story is well documented and serves as an additional inspiration for a team that is still in contention for a NFC East Division title. Bet on Washington for a 10* Top Play wager.

Liberty @ NC State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 359-360

Play On: NC State -3.5 (10*)

If NC State even contemplated taking Liberty lightly all they need to do is use Virginia Tech as a lesson not to do so. Liberty went into Blacksburg earlier this season and defeated Virginia Tech 38-35 as a 17.0-point underdog. This certainly will be a bigger game for upstart Liberty while seeking their 2nd win over a Power 5 Conference school this season. However, NC State has unequivocally played the tougher schedule and combined with my previous point made should have no excuse on Saturday to come up with nothing less than a huge effort.

Liberty is coming off a 58-14 blowout win over West Carolina and that improved their season record to 8-0. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a 38-22 win over Florida State which now makes them 5-3 this season. The combination of this data sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below.

Any college football home favorite of 2.0 or more that has at least 1 loss on the season, and they scored 22 points or greater during its previous game, versus an undefeated opponent that is playing after Game 8 of their season who allowed 27 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 ATS since 1990. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests was 20.3 points per game. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seahawks @ Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Rams -2.0 (10*)

The Seahawks defense has been brutal this season and especially against opposing passing games. They rank dead last in total defense having allowed 455.8 yards per game and that includes an NFL worst 362.1 yards per contest. How bad is their defensive passing numbers? The next worst is Atlanta who surrenders 51.8 passing yards fewer per game than Seattle. The Seahawks have been bailed out by the heroics of their quarterback Russel Wilson. However, Wilson turned the ball over via interception or fumbles 7 times over the Seahawks last 3 games of which 2 of those contests resulted in losses.

The Rams are unequivocally the more balanced team in this matchup in terms of offense and defense. They are #2 in total defense and #6 in total offense heading into this game. Head coach Sean McVay is a brilliant offensive mind and will have a field day calling plays that will thoroughly exploit this inept Seattle defense. By the way, since 2018, the Rams are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.0 or less. Los Angles is coming off their bye week and benefit from that extra time to prepare and rest for this huge game against a team they trail by a mere 1.0 game in the NFC West standings. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arkansas @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Florida -17.0 (10*)

At first glance when looking at this line on Monday, my initial feeling was Florida would be in for an emotional letdown after defeating Georgia for a first time in 4 tries during its previous game. However, that win catapulted them to #6 in the country, and if they aspire to be in the SEC title game or the College Football 4-team Playoff, they have no room for error. Additionally, they are going to need some style points along the way.

Arkansas has been a nice story this season under first year head coach Sam Pittman. After being an SEC laughingstock for the past few seasons, the Razorbacks are a respectable 3-3 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in those contests. It is highly improbable that Florida will overlook this game in lieu of what they have at stake and how competitive of an opponent they will be facing. Furthermore, the Razorbacks will be without head coach Sam Pittman who tested positive for COVID-19 this week. Former Missouri head coach and now Arkansas defensive coordinator will take on the temporary head coaching duties. From an emotional standpoint, that will affect the Razorbacks in some way, shape, or form. I look for Florida to make a further emphatic statement in “The Swamp” on Saturday night. Bet on Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Dolphins @ Cardinals 4:25 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Cardinals -4.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off a 28-14 home win over the Rams. However, they were outgained in that game by a decisive margin of 471-145. The Dolphins scored 2 touchdowns in that win via a 78-yard fumble return and an 88-yard punt return. The Rams also committed 4 turnovers and 2 of which set the Miami offense up with a short field to work with. Tua Tagovailoa made his much-anticipated NFL debut last Sunday and was an uninspiring 12-23 for 90 yards passing. This will be his first career start on the road.

Arizona is coming off their bye week and is coming off a thrilling 37-34 overtime win over NFC West Division leading Seattle (6-1). Bet on the Cardinals minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Baylor @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET

Game# 345-346

Play On: Iowa State -13.5 (10*)

It is clear at this point that Baylor is nowhere near the caliber of team that they were a season ago under current Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Ruhle. Iowa State is better than their present 4-2 record indicates.

Iowa State is averaging 433.3 yards of total offense per game. The Cyclones are coming off a 52-22 blowout win at Kansas in a game they outgained the Jayhawks by 302 total yards. Baylor is allowing 371.8 yards per game. The combination of this data sets up a terrific college football betting angle displayed below.

Any college football home favorite of between 10.5 to 21.0 points that is coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 125 yards or more, and that home favorite is facing an opponent which is allowing between 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home favorites going 25-2 ATS since 2011. The average line in those 27 contests was 15.2 and those favorites outscored the underdogs by a substantial 24.9 points per game. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Steelers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET

Game# 281-282

Play On: Baltimore -3.5 (10*)

Pittsburgh is coming off a very physical game last week at Tennessee in a game in which they nearly squandered 20-point 2nd half lead before holding on for a 27-24 win. That win improved their season record to an unblemished 6-0. I am sure a good portion of public action will back the undefeated Steelers as an underdog this week. However, I am not one of those individuals. Especially when considering they will be facing a 5-1 Ravens team which is coming off their buy week and one that may be even more physical than Tennessee. Furthermore, since 2002, Baltimore has gone a terrific 15-3 straight up and 14-4 ATS following a bye week. During that time, the Ravens have had only two head coaches in Brian Billick and John Harbaugh. There is something to be said for continuity when making sense of those extremely profitable results. Bet on the Ravens minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Ohio State @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 135-136

Play On: Penn State +12.5 (10*)

Despite losing being upset 36-35 at Indiana last week as a 7.0-point favorite, Penn State outgained the Hoosiers 488-211. Ohio State is coming off a season opening home blowout win over Nebraska. However, the Cornhuskers were able to move the ball evidenced by its 370 yards of total offense in that contest.

Any college football conference home underdog of 14.0 or less that is coming off an away favorite of 7.0 or greater straight up loss in which they allowed 22 points or greater, and they are facing an opponent coming off a home win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2009. The home underdogs also won 6 of those 11 games straight up. Bet on Penn State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seahawks @ Cardinals 8:20 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Cardinals +3.5 (10*)

The Seahawks offense has been Super Bowl caliber thus far led by star quarterback Russell Wilson and an extremely talented group of wide receivers. Nevertheless, their defense has been another story and has shown no signs of improvement at this point. The Seattle stop unit is allowing 27.2 points and an atrocious 471.2 yards per game. They are especially inept against the pass which is indicated by them surrendering 280 yards per game in that specific category. Moreover, they allowed Minnesota (1-5) to rush for over 200 yards last week in a game they narrowly escaped with a 27-26 win as a home favorite of 6.5-points.

That porous Seattle defense will have their hands full on Sunday night against an Arizona offense that averages 27.7 points and 402.5 yards per game. You also may be surprised to know that the Cardinals defense has been stellar as well while allowing just 18.7 points per game which is 4th best in the NFL. The Cardinals are coming off an impressive 38-10 home win at Dallas. If they hope to be a serious contender in the NFC West race, then this is an early must win situation. A win moves them to within 1.0 game of Seattle, and a loss would put them in a substantial 3.0 game hole.

Any NFL team (Arizona) which is coming off a road win by 21 points or more and is facing an opponent (Seattle) coming off a home game in which both teams scored 24 points or greater, resulted in those teams going 41-11 (78.8%) straight up since 1983. This NFL straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the home underdog. Bet on Arizona plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

NC State @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: North Carolina -14.5 (10*)

The first thing that jumped out at me was the double-digit point-spread. Especially when consider North Carolina heads into this week ranked 14th and NC State comes in at #23. It seems the sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. I know that a high percentage of bettors will take the bait considering North Carolina was upset at Florida State last week as a 14.0-point favorite, and NC State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS since losing to Virginia Tech 45-24. Speaking of Virginia Tech, North Carolina beat them 56-45 just 2 weeks ago while racking up an enormous 558 yards of total offense. NC State turned the ball over 3 times in their previous game. Since 2018, the Wolfpack have gone 0-7 SU&ATS following a game in which they committed 3 or more turnovers and lost by an average of 23.1 points per contest. Bet on North Carolina minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Tampa Bay +1.5 (10*)

The Tampa Bay defense has been stout against the run since Bruce Arians took over as their head coach. They were #1 in the NFL pertaining to that category last season and they led the league this year as well while yielding a scant 58 yards per game. The Packers Aaron Rodgers is going to get his yards in the air. However, Rodgers has been aided by the stellar performance of running back Aaron Jones who has averaged 93.5 yards rushing per game during the Packers 4-0 start. The production by Jones has made the Packers play action passing game extremely effective. Nevertheless, I like the Bucs defense ability to shut down the run and make Green Bay a one-dimensional offense on Sunday.

Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 this season. However, all 4 wins have come against teams who currently have a win percentage of less than .500 and sport a cumulative record of 4-15. Conversely, Tampa Bay is 3-2 and their first 5 opponents currently have a combined 14-10 record. Additionally, legendary Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady will have his full compliment of wide receivers available for a first time since Week 1. Bet on Tampa Bay for a 10* Top Play wager.

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 4:00 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Bet On: Mississippi State +5.5 (10*)

This is a dangerous spot for Texas A&M after they pulled of a home upset over then #3 Florida last week. As a matter of fact, the Aggies last 2 games have come against #2 Alabama and the previously mentioned contest versus Florida. Now they face a Mississippi State team which is coming off a pair of disappointing losses to Arkansas and Kentucky after beginning their season with an upset win at LSU. As the old cliché goes, “beware of the wounded animal”. I just can not envision Texas A&M coming close to the same intensity level they had in their last games which came against Top 10 ranked teams. Despite suffering 2 straight losses, the Bulldogs outgained both those opponents by 125 and 136 yards. The problem was, they committed an alarmingly high 10 turnovers in those defeats and now have 14 in their first 3 games. I just do not see the volume of mistakes continuing to occur on Saturday. Furthermore, despite the offense putting their defense in tough sports because of turnovers, the Bulldogs are allowing only 285.7 yards per game to their opponents. They have been especially strong against the run while allowing only 39 yards rushing per game. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: 49ers -9.0 (10*)

The 49ers are coming off a disappointing 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia in a game in which they were a sizable 7.5-point favorite. They suffered that defeat despite outgaining the Eagles 417-290 but were plagued by committing 3 turnovers. San Francisco starting Jimmy Garoppolo returns is probable to return from injury after a 2-week absence due to injury. Garoppolo will be facing a Miami defense which has allowed 24.0 points and 410.0 yards per game. I am sure that Miami will receive their fair share of public action since San Francisco has gone 0-2 SU&ATS at home thus far. With that in mind, then why is San Francisco such a large favorite? The sportsbooks just are not so generous and they are begging you to take the underdog in this contest. I am not taking the bait. Bet on the 49ers minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Miami @ Clemson 7:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Clemson -14.0 (10*)

Both teams come in with unblemished 3-0 records. Nonetheless, Miami is 3-0 ATS during those contests while Clemson failed to cover as a double-digit favorite on each occasion. However, it must be noted, the defending ACC Champion Tigers were a favorite of 28.0 or greater in all those contests. Truth be told, they sleepwalked through each of those victories and obviously looked uninspired while playing vastly inferior opposition. That will not be the case with #7 Miami and their star transfer quarterback D’Eriq King coming to Death Valley. Bet on Clemson minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Bills @ Raiders 4:25 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Bills -3.0 (10*)

Buffalo has started 3-0 and covered 2 of those contests. They were a favorite on each of those occasions and their only ATS loss came when Miami was able to back door them on a touchdown with 0:49 left in the game. The Buffalo defense has not played well during their previous 2 games. However, this is the same core group of players that was one of the best stop units in the NFL last year. I look for a much better performance from the defense last week and more of what we were used to seeing a season ago.

The Buffalo offense has been terrific through the first 3 weeks. Quarterback Josh Allen has been especially good and has taken a giant leap thus far in his 3rd season. Allen has thrown for over 1000 yards in 3 games in addition to tossing 10 touchdown passes and ran for 2 scores as well.

The Raiders defense has not exactly been stellar during their 2-1 start. They are allowing 30.0 points and 406.0 yards per game. Conversely the bills offense is averaging 31.0 points and 434. Yards per game. Bet on Buffalo minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Oklahoma @ Iowa State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 123-12

Play On: Iowa State +7.5 (10*)

I know many college football bettors will not be courageous enough to fade Oklahoma following a loss. However, I am not only willing to do so but it is going to be my largest wager on Saturday. Oklahoma had a commanding 35-17 lead in the 4th quarter against Kansas State last Saturday. Nevertheless, the Wildcats scored 24 unanswered and came away with a huge 38-35 upset win as a 27.5-point road underdog. Now Oklahoma has not lost 2 consecutive regular season games since 1999. As a result, public betting has favorited Oklahoma big time thus far. Yet, this line went from Oklahoma opening as a 9.5-point favorite down its current state of -7.5.

This is a chance for redemption on many fronts for Iowa State. First, they will be out to atone for a poor showing in their home opener when they were knocked off by UL-Lafayette 31-14 in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Secondly, they will be out to revenge a narrow 42-41 loss at Oklahoma last year in a game they were a 14.5-point underdog, and failed on a 2-point conversion late in that contest which would have earned them an upset over the eventual Big 12 champion. Despite Oklahoma winning 5 straight Big 12 titles and making it to the College Football Playoffs the last 3 years, Iowa State has played the Sooners extremely tough. As a matter of fact, since Matt Campbell took over the head coach duties at Iowa State in 2016, The Cyclone have gone just 1-3 against Oklahoma but all 3 losses came by 10 points or less. Bet on Iowa State plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Cowboys @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET

Game# 485-486

Play On: Cowboys +5.5 (10*)

Despite playing poorly last week Dallas overcame a 29-10 halftime deficit to miraculously beat Atlanta 40-39 and avoid an 0-2 start. I look for them to carry that momentum into their game at Seattle this week.

The Seattle defense has been getting bailed out by some off the chart numbers from their star quarterback Russell Wilson during its 2-0 start. Nonetheless, the fact still remains, their pass defense is horrible, and it was last season as well. During their first 2 games, Matt Ryan has passed for 450 yards and Cam Newton went for 397 in the air against them. They will be facing a good one in Dak Prescott on Sunday who threw for 450 yards last week against Atlanta. Bet on the Cowboys plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Army @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET

Game# 435-436

Play On: Cincinnati -12.5 (10*)

Army has looked terrific in 2 blowout wins over Middle Tennessee State and UL-Monroe. Their vaunted triple option rushing attack has looked in midseason form while racking up 390 yards per game on the ground and averaging 36 minutes in time of possession per game. Nonetheless, they will be stepping up in class considerably in their first road game of the season against a Cincinnati team that has gone a superb 22-5 during the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats return 8 starters on defense and 15 of its top 17 tacklers from a year ago. The Cincinnati defensive line may be the best in the AAC this season. I look for the Bearcats to open an early lead and give Army a taste of its own medicine by controlling the tempo of this game. Bet on Cincinnati minus the points for a 10* Top Play

Packers @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Vikings -1.0 (10*)

I am not impressed whatsoever with the 2020-2021 version of the Green Bay Packers. The oddsmakers must agree because after a 13-3 2019-2020 regular season their win total this year was set at 9.5. They lack quality depth at wide receiver. I also question their recent draft and the lack of moves to upgrade the roster during this past offseason.

For starters, since 2015, Minnesota has gone an extremely profitable 22-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 or less, and that includes 13-1 ATS in the first 7 games of the season. Additionally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 home openers. Considering the small point-spread they are being asked to cover, it makes for an attractive betting value on the home favorite. Bet on the Vikings minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arkansas State @ Kansas State 12;00 PM ET

Game# 427-428

Play On: Kansas State -12.5 (10*)

Arkansas State hung tough last week at Memphis last week in a 37-24 loss in which they covered as a 17.0-point underdog. However, they allowed the quick strike Memphis offense to have 34 minutes in time of possession. They also allowed Memphis to rack up 502 yards of total offense in that contest. That is not good news since Kansas State was one of the best teams nationally in time of possession last season. Furthermore, since 2015, Arkansas State is 0-6 SU&ATS after their season opener as a non-conference away underdog. The average line in those 6 contests was 17.5 and they lost by an average of 34.8 points per game.

Since 2017, Kansas Sate is 3-0 SU&ATS as a non-conference home favorite when facing an opponent from a Group of 5 Conference. The average line in those 3 contests was 25.7 and the Wildcats won by 41.3 points per game. Kansas State will be a tad bit inexperienced on offense, but they do have a good one in senior dual threat quarterback Skyler Thomson who passed for 2315 yards while also running 405 yards and 11 touchdowns. Play on Kansas State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

BYU @ Navy 8:00 ET

Game# 243-244

Play On: Navy +1.0 (10*)

BYU recently had 10 of their originally scheduled 12 games cancelled to reasons pertaining to COVID-19. Their schedule has been reduced from 12 to 8 games. As a result, the coaching staff and players were just notified a few weeks ago that they would be traveling cross country to play Navy in Annapolis, Maryland. Instead of having an entire offseason to prepare for the highly efficient Navy triple option rushing attack, they had all of 3 weeks to do so. That certainly is not an easy task since it will be extremely difficult to simulate the efficiency and speed that the Navy offense operates at.

Besides the short preparation time for BYU, they will also be facing a Navy team that went 11-2 last season with their only 2 defeats coming against #17 Memphis and #12 Notre Dame which both took place on the road. The Midshipmen also defeated #22 Air Force (11-2) and SMU (10-3). Navy finished at #20 in the final 2019-2020 AP Poll.

Navy has gone 29-4 in their last 33 at home. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are 12-0 in their last 12 at home against non-conference opponents. Bet on Navy for a 10* Top Play wager.

San Francisco vs. Kansas City 6:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: San Francisco +1.5 (10*)

Despite their impressive journey to the Super Bowl, Kansas City has been a beneficiary of a pretty soft schedule. They finished their regular season slate with 6 games against teams who finished with a losing record. Furthermore, the Chiefs AFC playoff wins came against the #4 seed Houston Texans (11-7) and the #6 seed Tennessee Titans (11-7). Additionally, Kansas City had to overcome a 24-point deficit against Houston and a 10-point hole versus Tennessee.

One thing is for sure, nobody can say San Francisco reached the 2020 Super Bowl by way of an undemanding schedule. Counting the NFC Playoffs, San Francisco has played seven of their previous 8 games against teams who finished with a win percentage of better than .500. They went 6-2 in those contests and 1 of their losses came by 3 at Baltimore (14-3), and the other versus an Atlanta team which finished 4-0 SU&ATS during their last 4 games.

The 49ers success in running the football against Kansas City will go a long way in determining the outcome of

Titans @ Chiefs 3:05 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Titans +8.0 (10*)

Tennessee will not be intimidated by playing in a hostile environment. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 away games. I look for the runaway freight train called Derek Henry to continue his dominance on Sunday that he’s displayed over the past 8 games. During that stretch, Henry has rushed for over 1200 yards and 3 touchdowns. That includes a 186-yard rushing day in a 35-32 win over Kansas City on 11/10. The Chiefs defense has shown a marked improvement this year’s in comparison to the one fielded during recent seasons. However, I’m not convinced they’ll hold up in crunch time. I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict an outright upset although I wouldn’t be shocked if that would occur. Nevertheless, I love the Titans plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Vikings @ Saints 1:05 PM ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Vikings +9.0 (10*)

Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite after playing a division opponent in their previous game. For the record, they were at Carolina last Sunday. New Orleans did manage to win 4 of those 5 contests straight up. However, all 4 victories came by 6 points or fewer.

Minnesota enters the postseason with a 10-6 record. They will be facing a Saints team which is coming off a division win at Carolina which improved their season record to 13-3 (.812). The combination of this previously mentioned data sets up an NFL betting angle which is 15-0 ATS and is displayed below.

Any NFL road underdog of 10.0 or less that has a winning record and is playing after game 8 of their season, versus an opponent (Saints) with a win percentage of .750 or better and they’re coming off a division road win, resulted in those road underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2014. They also won 8 of those 15 games straight up. Bet on the Vikings plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Bills @ Texans 4:35 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: Bills +3.0 (10*)

Houston has gone 0-5 ATS and 3-2 straight up in their last 5 games as a home favorite versus AFC teams. Their 3 straight up wins came by only a combined 7 points. The Texans defense is a huge concern heading into postseason action. During their last 5 games, Houston has allowed an average of 27.2 points and 434.6 yards per game. Granted, J.J. Watt returns after an 8-game absence while recovering from a torn pectoral issue, and that should give the defensive unit a huge emotional lift. However, I wonder just how effective Watt can be after such a long layoff.

Buffalo went 6-2 straight up and 6-0-2 ATS in away games during their recently completed regular season slate. If defense wins championships, then the Bills are primed to make a deep postseason run. Buffalo is #2 in scoring defense (16.2 PPG) and #3 in Total defense (298.2 YPG). This Buffalo defense has 10 starters from last year’s 6-10 team that allowed just 13 offensive points, surrendered only 216 total yards, and sacked Deshaun Watson 7 times during a 7-point loss in 2018 at Houston. Bet on Buffalo plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Baylor vs. Georgia 8:45 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Baylor +5.0 (10*)

When it comes to college football bowl season handicapping, sometimes it’s a matter of what team you can bank on being more motivated. Georgia need a win in the SEC Championship Game against LSU to make the college football playoffs. However, they were throttled by LSU and thus had to settle for a Sugar Bowl invite against upstart Baylor.

Baylor has enjoyed a magnificent 11-2 season to this point. The Bears only 2 losses came at the hands of #4 Oklahoma (12-2). They suffered a heartbreaking 30-23 overtime loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game which cost them a trip to the college football playoffs. They also blew a 28-3 lead at home to Oklahoma in a 34-31 loss.

The bottom line is this. Nobody in college football was surprised by Georgia’s success this season. However, nobody expected Baylor to be this good let alone being one play away from reaching the college football playoffs. Baylor will be the more juiced up team in this one. Bet on Baylor plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Clemson vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET

Game# 243-244

Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*)

Ohio State has played the much tougher schedule of these pair of 13-0 teams and that will pay dividends in the outcome of this game. The Buckeyes have beaten #8 Wisconsin twice, #10 Penn State, #14 Michigan, and #21 Cincinnati. Clemson has recorded just 1 win over a team that’s currently ranked in the Top 25 and that was over #24 Virginia in the ACC Championship game. Bet on Ohio State plus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager.

USC vs. Iowa 8:00 PM ET

Game# 233-234

Play On: USC +2.5

Iowa has relied heavily on their defense this season to do its heavy lifting. The Hawkeyes are allowing a mere 13.2 points per game this season. Yet, they somehow managed to lose 3 games this season. Iowa’s offensive production has left much to be desired. The Hawkeyes have averaged only 304.2 total yards of total offense per game. Iowa went 6-3 in Big 10 Conference play but only 1 of those wins came against a team that finished with a winning record.

After suffering through an underachieving 5-4 start, USC finished their regular season slate by winning their last 3. Despite how goo the Iowa defense is, USC will present a stiff challenge with their multifaceted passing game. During their current 3-game win streak, USC has averaged an incredible 466 yards passing per contest. Bet on USC plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Washington vs. Boise State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Washington -3.0 (10*)

For starters, former Boise State and current Washington head coach Chris Peterson will be roaming the sidelines for a final time on Saturday. Peterson surprisingly resigned from his position in November due to personal issues. It’s har to imagine the Huskies not coming up with a huge effort in Peterson’s swan song.

Secondly, #19 Boise State enters this Las Vegas Bowl with a terrific 12-1 record. Nonetheless, the oddsmakers have made unranked and 7-5 Washington as the favorite. Like I’ve alluded to on many occasions, I trust the oddsmakers a heck of a lot more than college football poll voters. By the way, Boise State suffered their only defeat at BYU 28-25. Conversely, Washington won easily at BYU earlier this season by a decisive score of 45-19. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Houston @ Tennessee 1:00 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)

I know that Houston has yet to lose back to back games this season. However, getting blown out at home by Denver last Sunday was inexcusable, and hardly bodes well for a team fighting to make the postseason. The Texans defense isn’t playoff caliber. Houston has gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 division away games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Since Ryan Tannehill has taken over for Marcus Mariota at quarterback the Titans offense has an entirely different feel to it. More importantly, Tennessee has gone a red-hot 6-1 SU&ATS with Tannehill as their starter, and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS at home. Houston may have more pure talent on paper than Tennessee, but the Titans are the better team right now, and they’re peaking at the right time. Additionally, Tennessee has gone 3-0 SU&ATS during its last 3 home games against Houston. Bet on Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seahawks @ Rams 8:20 PM ET

Game# 157-158

Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)

Seattle is coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota. That victory improved the Seahawks record to 10-2 (.833). However, it must be noted, 9 of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. My point being, despite their stellar record it’s not like they’ve been dominant while doing so.

The Rams desperately need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’re coming off last Sunday’s impressive 34-7 win at Arizona that improved their record to 7-5 (.583). It was just one of a couple times this season they resembled the defending NFC champion. Los Angles is currently 1.0 game behind the Vikings (8-4) for the final NFL Wildcard spot. With Minnesota hosting Detroit as a double-digit favorite this week, the Rams can ill afford to lose and hope to have a realistic chance of making the postseason parade.

Any home team (Rams) that’s coming off a road win by 22 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .583 or better, versus an opponent coming off a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or greater, and they (Seahawks) own a win percentage of .833 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 30-0 straight up since 1986. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots @ Texans 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Texans +3.5 (10*)

The one quarterback that gave New England’s elite defense problems this season was Lamar Jackson. DeShaun Watson provides a similar skill set. He may not be as dynamic a runner as Lamar Jackson is, but he can still make plenty of plays with his legs whether it be taking off to run or keeping plays alive with elusive scrambling ability. It’s hard to poke holes at the 10-1 Patriots other to say that their offense is far from dynamic, and age seems to be creeping up on Tom Brady based on recent performances. Bet on the Texans plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

UNLV @ Nevada 3:00 PM ET

Game# 389-390

Play On: Nevada -7.0 (10*)

UNLV is coming off a 38-35 win over San Jose State and did so as a 7.0-point home underdog. That win improved the Rebels season record to 3-8 (.272). Conversely, Nevada is coming off a 35-28 upset win at Fresno State in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. The Wolfpack have now gone 3-0 SAU&ATS in their last 3 and 7-4 overall. Nevada will also be out to revenge last year’s 34-29 loss at UNLV.

Any college football home favorite of 7.0 to 24.0 that’s coming off a conference road SU&ATS win in which they covered by 6.5-points or more, versus an opponent (UNLV) who’s coming off a conference underdog of 6.0 or greater straight up win, and they own a win percentage of .250 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 28-1 ATS (96.5%) since 2006. Bet on Nevada minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cowboys @ Patriots 4:25 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Cowboys +6.0 (10*)

The Patriots defense has been outstanding with an exception of their 37-20 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens offense racked up 372 yards of offense on that day which is 122.6 more than Patriots defense current season average. Dallas will present similar challenges for New England. Dak Prescott doesn’t have the running capabilities of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, but he’s still very mobile and has the uncanny ability to keep plays alive with more than adequate scrambling abilities. You can also make a strong argument that Prescott is surrounded by better skilled players than Jackson possesses. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Dallas win this game outright. Nonetheless, I won’t be greedy and will surely accept the generous amount of points being given. Bet on the Cowboys for a 10* Top Play wager.

Boston College @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM ET

Game# 161-162

Play On: Notre Dame -20.5 (10*)

Notre Dame is coming off blowout wins over Navy 52-20 and Duke 38-7 during its last 2 games. Those wins improved #16 Notre Dame to 8-2 this season. Boston College is coming off a 38-31 home loss to Florida State. That defeat dropped the Eagles season record to 5-5 (.500).

Any college football favorite of 15.0 to 28.0 (Notre Dame) that’s coming off back to back wins by 28 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent (Boston College) with a win percentage of .125 or better and is coming off a straight up loss, resulted in those sizable home favorites going an outstanding 42-6 ATS (87.2%) since 1986. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Colts @ Texans 8:20 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Colts +4.0 (10*)

The Colts have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 division games. This is also a Indianapolis team which has gone an outstanding 15-5 straight up during its previous 20 regular season games. They will be without their starting running back Marlon Mack who injured his hand in last week’s 33-13 win over Jacksonville. However, backup Jonathan Williams stepped in ran for 116 yards on just 13 carries. Which further proves that the Colts offensive line is an elite unit and has been since last season. They certainly will have an opportunity to expose a Texans run defense that allowed 263 yards rushing during last Sunday’s 41-7 blowout loss at Baltimore. Granted 86 of those rush yards came from the best running quarterback in the NFL named Lamar Jackson. Nevertheless, 3 Ravens running backs combined to run for 178 yards and 6.9 yards per rushing attempt.

The Colts defense has been outstanding over their previous 4 games. During that time, they’ve allowed their opponents to accumulate just 272.3 yards of total offense per game. Throughout that same 4-game span, Indianapolis allowed 16 points or fewer on 3 occasions, and that includes in each of its previous 2 outings. Contrarily, the Texans defense has allowed 25.7 points and 385.0 yards per game over their last 6 contests.

Any NFL team (Colts) which has allowed 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 contests and is facing an opponent which has allowed 35 points or greater in their previous game, resulted in those teams going a terrific 45-14 (76.3%) since 2010. This NFL straight up betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this contest. Bet on the Colts plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Eagles +4.5 (10*)

Granted New England is 8-1, and they’re the reigning Super Bowl champions. However, they’ve beaten just 1 team that currently has a winning record and that’s Buffalo (6-3). Their other 7 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 15-40. The Patriots are coming off their first loss of the season after a 37-20 blowout defeat at Baltimore.

Philadelphia is coming off back to back wins over Buffalo 31-13 and Chicago 23-14. Their defense played exceptionally well in those wins while allowing only a combined 417 yards. Since 2016, the Eagles are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-division home games following wins in each of its previous 2 contests.

Any NFL team (Eagles) playing in a non-division game and is coming off 2 consecutive games in which they allowed 17 points or less, versus an opponent (Patriots) with a win percentage of .375 or better who allowed 35 points or more during its last contest, resulted in those teams going 16-1 (94.1%) straight up since 2010. Bet on the Eagles plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Stanford @ Washington State 4:30 PM ET

Game# 403-404

Play On: Washington State -10.0 (10*)

Washington State enters this week on a 2-game losing streak. Those losses dropped their season record to 4-5 (.444). This sets up a straightforward and extremely profitable college football betting angle which is displayed below.

Any college football favorite of 10.0 to 20.5 that owns a win percentage of .400 to .490, and they’re coming off losses during each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those favorites going 35-5 ATS (87.5%) since 2009. Bet on Washington State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Vikings @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Cowboys -3.0 (10*)

You may be surprised to know, Minnesota is 0-9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 away games when facing a team with a winning record. They’re coming off last Sunday’s 26-23 away favorite 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City. The Vikings will be facing a Cowboys team that won 2 straight to improve its season record to 5-3 (.625), and they’re coming off a 37-18 road win this past Monday night over the New York Giants.

Any non-division home favorite of 4.5 or less that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 2.0-points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .416 or better, versus an opponent (Vikings) coming off a SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 18.0-points or fewer, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a decisive 18.5 points per game. Bet on the Cowboys minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Ravens +3.5 (10*)

New England has started the season 8-0 and are deserving of all the accolades that they’re receiving. However, they’ve only defeated 1 team (Buffalo 5-2) that currently has a winning record. Their other 7 wins have come against opponents that presently have a combined record of 9-35 (.205). Additionally, during that 16-10 win at Buffalo, the Patriots were outgained by 151 yards and scored only 9 offensive points. The difference was a blocked punt returned for a touchdown by New England, and 4 Buffalo turnovers. By the way, Baltimore is averaging just 1 turnover committed per contest, and have also not had an offensive turnover in 4 of its 7 games.

Since John Harbaugh has taken over as head coach of Baltimore in 2008, the Ravens have gone 7-0 straight up in regular season action following a bye week and when facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or better. They won those contests by a decisive margin of 13.4 points per game. Bet on the Ravens plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Georgia vs. Florida 3:30 PM ET

Game# 371-372

Play On: Georgia -5.5 (10*)

Florida’s defense looked terrific through their first 6 games. Nevertheless, that hasn’t been the case over their previous 2 outing in which they allowed 34.5 points and 449.0 yards per game. During those 2 contests they permitted South Carolina to rush for 217 yards and LSU amassed 218 on the ground. The Gamecocks and Tigers also combined to average a huge 6.5 yards per rushing attempt. That’s troublesome when considering Georgia has averaged 237 yards per game rushing and a massive 6.1 yards per running attempt.

This is a perfect opportunity for Georgia to forge themselves right back into to the 4-team college football playoffs discussion. Despite being the favorite in this contest, they’re facing a higher ranked opponent (Florida). Nothing would elevate their status more than a convincing win which I truly believe they’re primed to do. The Georgia defense has been dominant thus far in 2019, allowing a mere 10.6 points and 266.7 yards per game. They suffered a shocking 20-17 home loss to South Carolina in a game they closed as a 20.5-point favorite. That’s been their only blemish of the season. The Bulldogs outgained South Carolina in that defeat by a decisive 468-297 yards. Unfortunately, they committed 4 turnovers in that setback while failing to create any of its own. Georgia dominated Florida in the last 2 head to head meeting by outscoring them 78-24 and outgaining the Gators 822-383. Bet on Georgia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Packers @ Chiefs 8:20 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Chiefs +4.5 (10*)

The Chiefs are still claiming that Patrick Mahomes has a chance to play in this game. However, that seems unlikely to me considering he suffered a dislocated knee cap a little over a week ago. However, by chance that does occur, then we have a tremendous underdog betting value because this line will be moved considerably as a result. But I handicapped this game and decided on this pick based on veteran backup quarterback Matt Moore being under center. Moore will still be surrounded by plenty of offensively skilled players capable of stepping it up for him. Secondly, look for the Chiefs to make a concerted effort to run the ball against a Green Bay defense that’s given up 142.7 yards per game on the ground throughout their previous 6 contests.

Kansas City is coming off a Thursday night 30-6 blowout win at Denver. This will be the first time since 2014 that Kansas City will be a home underdog and that itself should provide plenty of motivation. Furthermore, since 2016, Kansas City is 8-0 ATS and 7-1 straight up in its last 8 games as an underdog when facing an opponent with a win percentage of less than .900. Green Bay is 6-1 which is good for a win percentage of .857.

Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .583 or better (Chiefs) that’s coming off an away win by 15 points or more, and they allowed 24 points or fewer in that win, versus an opponent (Packers) coming off a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 55-3 (94.7%) straight up since 1984. The straight up results take on added significance since it supports the underdog in this contest. Bet on the Chiefs plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Ravens @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Seahawks -3.0 (10*)

Baltimore enters this week atop the AFC North with a 4-2 record. However, they’ve faced just 1 team in their first 6 games that currently has a winning record.

Seattle has maintained one of the strongest home field advantages in the NFL during the past 8 seasons. Specifically, the Seahawks are 51-13 at home since 2012, and that includes 35-6 when facing non-division opponents. That’s something I just can’t ignore when considering the small point-spread they’re being asked to cover in this contest. Furthermore, Seattle is 9.0 ATS as a non-division home favorite of between 1.5 and 5.0 since 2012. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests was a substantial 20.3 points per game. Seattle is coming off a 32-28 win at Cleveland last Sunday and it improved their season record to 5-1 (.833). Their only loss came to the 5-1 New Orleans Saints.

Any NFL home favorite of 2.5 to 7.0 with a win percentage of .800 or better, and they’re coming off a game in which they scored 28 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .666 to .818, and they’re playing after Game 6 of its season, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 16 contests came by an enormous average of 20.3 points per game. Vet on the Seahawks minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Arizona State @ Utah 6:00 PM ET

Game# 359-360

Play On: Utah -13.0 (10*)

This double-digit point-spread caught my eye immediately. Especially when considered each team owns identical 5-1 (.833) records, and both are nationally ranked with Utah coming in as #13 and ASU #17. It’s like the sportsbooks are begging you to take the sizable underdog in this contest. Upon further examination, I’m not falling for the trap. Utah has been terrific defensively this season. They’re allowing a mere 13.2 points and 271.5 yards per game. The Sun Devils defense has also been impressive at time during this 2019 campaign. However, they’ve allowed 30 or more points in half their games and permitted their opponents to amass 404 yards or more of total offense in 4 of its last 5 games. Furthermore, Utah hasn’t allowed any of their 6 opponents to eclipse 400 yards, and the Utes have racked up 457 yards or more of offense in each of their previous 4 games.

Utah is coming off a 52-7 win at Oregon State and easily covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Arizona State defeated Washington State 38-34 in their previous game and covered as a 1.0-point home underdog. This created a terrific college football betting angle displayed below.

Any conference home favorite of 8.0 to 31.0 with a win percentage of .900 or less (Utah), coming of conference favorite ATS win in which they covered by 2.0 or more and scored 35 points or greater, versus an opponent (Arizona State) with a win percentage of .636 or better who’s coming off a conference straight up underdog win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1985. The average margin of victory in those contests was 31.5 points per game. Bet on Utah minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Eagles @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Vikings -3.0 (10*)

The Eagles are coming off a convincing 31-6 home win over the Jets and easily covered as a large 13.0-point favorite. However, they were held to an alarmingly low 265 yards of total offense in that contest. That’s worrisome considering they will be facing a Vikings defense that’s #4 in the NFL in yards allowed at 292.4 per game. As a matter of fact, during their last 3 contests Minnesota has allowed just 13.3 points and 260.7 yards per game.

Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach of the Vikings in 2014, they’ve been a stellar 30-12 SU&ATS during regular season home games. Furthermore, they’ve gone a terrific 19-1 SU&ATS as a non-division home favorite of 11.0 or less under Zimmer, and that includes 10-0 ATS if they were facing an opponent with a winning record. Bet on the Vikings for a 10* Top Play wager.

Washington @ Arizona 11:00 PM ET

Game# 151-152

Play On: Arizona +6.5 (5*)

Washington is coming off a listless effort last Saturday night during a 23-13 loss at Stanford as a substantial 12.5-point favorite. It marked the 2nd time this season that the Huskies were upset as a double-digit favorite with the other coming against California.

After losing 45-38 in their season opener at Hawaii, Arizona has reeled off 4 straight wins, and includes last week’s 35-30 win at Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog. The Wildcats are an explosive offense team that averages 37.2 points and 539.2 yards per game. Additionally, since 10/7/2017, Arizona is 6-1 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 1.5 to 10.0.  Bet on Arizona plus the points for a 5* wager.

Browns @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: 49ers -4.5 (10*)

The Browns are coming off an excellent performance last week at Baltimore in which they won by a decisive 40-25 margin. The win evened their record at 2-2. Cleveland has won road games in consecutive weeks since 2002. They had one opportunity to accomplish the feat last season, but they lost at Houston 29-13. The Browns will be without the services of 2 of their young star defensive backs in Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward.

The 49ers are in a rare situation in which they’re playing at home on a Monday following a bye week. San Francisco is coming off a 24-20 win over Pittsburgh in their home opener 2 weeks ago that improved their season record to 3-0. They won that game against Pittsburgh despite turning the ball over 5 times. Any Monday night home favorite of 4.0 to 9.0-points that’s coming off a bye week, and they won their previous game, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those Monday home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. They won those 6 contests by an average of 21.7 points per game.

The 49ers have been strong defensively thus far while allowing only 18.0 points and 283.3 yards per game. During their last games San Francisco has amassed a combined 1008 yards of total offense.

Any non-division home favorite of 5.5 or less that’s coming off a straight up win by 17 points or fewer, and they possess a winning record, Versus an opponent coming off a division away underdog straight up win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 ATS since 1981. The average victory margin in those 12 contests came by 13.3 points per game. Bet on the 49ers for a 10* Top Play wager.

Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Chargers -6.0 (10*)

Denver is coming off a 26-24 home loss to Jacksonville in a game they failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. The loss dropped the Broncos season record to 0-4. Adding insult to injury, Denver lost Bradley Chubb to a season ending injury in that loss to the Jaguars.

The Chargers are of to their usual slow start and are 2-2 thus far. They’re coming off a 30-10 win at Miami last Sunday in a game they covered as a 14.5-point favorite. Los Angeles will get an extra boost by the return of star running back Melvin Gordon following a holdout.

Any NFL home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off an away favorite of 3.0 or greater ATS win in which they scored 21 points or more, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 20 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 14 contests was 24.6 points per game. Bet on the Chargers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Northwestern @ Nebraska 4:00 PM ET

Game# 361-362

Play On: Nebraska -7.0 (10*)

Northwestern is coming off a 24-15 loss to Wisconsin which dropped their season record to 1-3. The Wildcats only win came over UNLV who annually one of the poorest football programs in the country. Northwestern’s offense is averaging just 15.5 points and 292.7 yards per game. Furthermore, they’ve committed an alarmingly high 11 turnovers in their first 4 games of the season.

Nebraska was outclassed last week against Ohio State in a 48-7 home loss while also failing to cover as a 17.0-point home underdog. Despite that low scoring output in addition to being held to a mere 231 total yards, Nebraska is still averaging 31.8 points and 438.2 yards per game. The Cornhuskers will also be playing with double revenge stemming from 2 straight losses to Northwestern by narrow margins of 34-31 and 31-28.

Any conference favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off a conference home underdog of 11.0 or greater ATS loss in which they scored 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Northwestern) coming off a loss by 34 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1980. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 24.8 points per game. Bet on Nebraska minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cowboys @ Saints 8:20 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Saints +3.0 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a 31-6 home rout of hapless Miami which improved their season record to a perfect 3-0. New Orleans is coming off last Sunday’s 33-27 upset win at Seattle as a 5.5-point underdog. Even more impressive about that New Orleans victory is they did so with backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center like we’ll continue to see in the imminent future due to Drew Brees being sidelined. That victory enabled the Saints to start this season 2-1.

Any regular season home underdog of 2.0 to 5.5-points (Saints) that’s coming off a away underdog straight up win, and they possess a win percentage of better than .500, versus an opponent (Cowboys) coming off a home win, and they own a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going an outstanding 28-4 ATS (87.5%) since 1988. Those home underdogs also won 25 of those 32 games straight up. Bet on the Saints plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET

Game# 137-138.0

Play On: Minnesota -1.5 (10*)

Purdue is coming off a 34-13 home loss to TCU in which they failed to cover as a 3.0-point underdog. They also blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at Nevada in their season opening 34-31 loss. The Boilermakers are a disappointing 1-2 thus far with their only win coming at home over Vanderbilt. The Boilermakers starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar remains questionable while attempting to recover from a concussion.

Minnesota enters their Big 10 Conference opener with a 3-0 record and those wins came by 7 points or less. The Gophers are unlikely to blink in a close game. They defeated Fresno State 38-35 in their only 2019 road game to this point. Dating back to last season, Minnesota has won 5 straight games under 2nd year Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck.

Any conference away team that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent coming home a home underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 21.0-points or fewer, and they have a win percentage of .400 or worse, resulted in those away teams going 50-1 straight up since 1982. Bet on Minnesota for a 10* Top Play wager.

Rams @ Browns 8:20 PM ET

Game# 487-488

Play On: Browns +3.5 (10*)

If the Browns want to prove they aren’t overhyped this is certainly a spot to do so against the reigning NFC champion Rams. They will also be out to atone for a 43-13 embarrassing loss to Tennessee in their home opener. On a positive note they’re coming off last Monday night’s convincing win or the Jets in a game they easily as an away favorite of 6.5-points. Since 1988, home teams coming off a Monday night away favorite ATS have gone an outstanding 51-16 straight up. That’s surely a compelling statistic considering Cleveland will be a home underdog on Sunday night. This is the first time this season that Cleveland will be an underdog. The Browns were a very profitable 7-2 ATS a year ago as an underdog of 7.0-points or less.

The Rams are coming off a convincing 27-9 home win over New Orleans in what was a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game. That realistically opens the possibility of a flat spot for Los Angles this week.

Any non-division home underdog of 3.5 or less (Browns) that’s coming off a non-division away favorite ATS win in which they scored 34 points or less, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) coming off a win in which they scored 27 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 1980. Those home underdogs also won 12 of those 14 contests straight up. Bet on the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Jaguars @ Texans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Texans -8.0 (10*)

Jacksonville took a huge hit for their chances of contending for a playoff spot this season after their prized offseason acquisition Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle. Their chances now ride on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew out of Washington State. Minshew was impressive in relief last week while going 22-25 passing for 275 yards during a 40-26 home loss to Kansas City. However, the Texans will have ample time to prepare for Minshew in addition to tape on him while the Chiefs didn’t have that luxury. Houston lost a heartbreaker 30-28 at New Orleans last week with the winning points coming via a 58-yard field goal as time expired. I look for a huge effort out of the Texans in their season opener.

Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or more that’s coming off an away straight up loss in which they covered as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog ATS loss that they failed to cover by 8.0-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 7 contents came by a massive average of 29.4 points per game. Bet on the Texans minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

NC State @ West Virginia 12:00 PM ET

Game# 113-114

Play On: NC State -6.5 (10*)

This 2019 Mountaineers team is terrible in comparison to the successful precedent that was set before them at West Virginia. They barely got by James Madison 20-13 in their season opener thanks to a +3 margin in turnovers, and then was blown out 38-7 last week at Missouri. That was a Missouri team that had been upset at Wyoming the week before as a 15.5-point chalk.

NC State has been extremely impressive during its 2-0 start to 2019. They outscored their first 2 opponents East Carolina and West Carolina by a decisive margin of 74-6 while committing no turnovers in doing so.

Any college football away favorite of 3.5 or greater that’s coming off 2 straight win in which they allowed 14 points or fewer, versus an opponent that gave up 37 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away favorites going 50-14 ATS (78.1%) since 2008. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Steelers @ Patriots 8:20 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: Patriots -5.5 (5*)

Betting against the Patriots at home during the past 4 seasons has been a recipe for claiming bankruptcy. New England has gone an extremely profitable 26-9-3 ATS in Foxboro since 2015, and that includes an even better 12-2 ATS (83%) when they closed as a favorite of 6.5 or less. New England has also had the Steelers number in recent seasons. Specifically, since 2013, the Patriots have won 5 of the last 6 head to head meetings versus Pittsburgh, and they also went 4-1-1 ATS in those contests. Those results include New England going 3-0 at Gillette Stadiums while winning by a decisive average of 16.7 points per contest.

Counting the postseason, New England went 14-5 a season ago. Conversely, Pittsburgh went 9-7 and didn’t qualify for postseason actions. Those 2 records sets up a successful NFL season opener betting angle listed below.

Any NFL team (New England) playing in their season opener that’s a home favorite of 7.5 or less, and they won 12 or more games in the previous year, versus an opponent (Pittsburgh) that won 12 games or fewer during the previous year, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 11-0 ATS since 2005. The average victory margin in those 11 contests was 13.1 points per game. Bet on the Patriots minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots vs. Rams 6:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Rams +3.0 (10*)

New England has unequivocally more postseason experience let alone Super Bowl experience than the Rams do. However, I firmly believe the Rams are the more talented team on both sides of the ball, and that will trump all on Sunday. It’s also worth noting, since last season’s Super Bowl, New England has gone a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS as a favorite of 2.0 to 9.0-points when not playing at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. New England was outscored in those 5 contests by an average of 11.2 points per game. Bet on the Rams plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Rams @ Saints 3:05 PM ET

Game#311-312

Play On: Saints -3.0 (10*)

The Rams are coming off last week’s Divisional Round 30-22 home win over Dallas. The Rams covered their closing point-spread line of -7.0.

NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0-points or fewer (Saints) that’s facing an opponent (Rams) m coming off a playoff game in which they covered as a home favorite by 6.5-points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS (91.7%) since 1988. Bet on the Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Patriots 1:05 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Under 48.0 (10*)

The Chargers have seen 13 of their last 20 away games (65%) go under the total. They’ve also gone under in 8 of their last 11 overall which includes each of its previous 3. Additionally, they’ve allowed 19 points or fewer in 8 of their previous 13 games.

New England’s defense quietly performed extremely well during the 2nd of this season. Specifically, the Patriots allowed 17 points or fewer in 7 of their previous 9 games. Furthermore, New England went under the total during 8 of those 9 contests and that includes each of the last 3. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cowboys @ Rams 8:15 PM ET

Game# 303-304

Play On: Cowboys +8.5 (5*)

Despite Rams management spending an enormous amount of money on their defense, they still allowed a lofty 24.0 points per game during its regular season slate. As a matter of fact, the Rams have allowed 30 points or more in each of their last 4 home games. The Rams have also gone 1-5-2 ATS during this NFL campaign versus opponents that finished their regular season slate with a winning record.

During the past 3 seasons, Dallas has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in away games against teams that were allowing 24.0 or more points per game. The Cowboys are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an away underdog of 3.5 or more, and they won 10 of those 19 contests straight up. Bet on Dallas plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Baltimore -2.5 (10*)

Baltimore is #2 in rushing offense and #1 in total defense in the NFL. When it comes to playoff football, that’s unequivocally a recipe for success. The Ravens have won their last 4 at home and 6 of their last 7 overall. They also dominated the Chargers in a Week 16 road win in which they held a potent Los Angeles offense to less than 200 yards. Bet on the Ravens minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Washington vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Washington +7.5 (10*)

Washington was one of my 4 predictions to make the college football playoffs before the season began. Obviously, they fell short in that regard. However, this is an experienced Huskies team with an imposing defense which allowed just 15.5 points and 301.8 yards per game on their way to a 10-3 season and PAC-12 title. Conversely, Ohio State’s defense is a major concern and that was especially evident late in the year. The Buckeyes allowed 38.0 points and 451.3 yards per game during its last 3 contests against Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. The also gave up 49 points and 539 yards to Purdue during their lone loss of the season. Bet on Washington plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech 12:00 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Cincinnati -5.5 (10*)

Cincinnati has averaged 238 yards rushing per game on their way to an impressive 10-2 regular season campaign. That’s not good news for a Virginia Tech defense that’s surrendering an alarming 206 yards rushing per game this season. ASA a matter of fact, since 2016, Virginia Tech is a dismal 0-7 ATS when facing an opponent that’s averaging 230 or more rushing yards per game and they were outscored by 12.6 points per contest.

Cincinnati finished their regular season slate with a 56-6 blowout win over East Carolina. The Bearcats average an enormous 8.2 yards per offensive play during that victory. Cincinnati is averaging 458.2 yards of total offense per game. They’ll be facing a Virginia Tech defense which has allowed 436.7 yards per game during regular season action. The combination of all the previously mentioned statistical data sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is illustrated below.

Any favorite of 3.5 to 10.0-points (Cincinnati) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they’re coming off a game in which they averaged 6.75 yards or more per offensive play, versus an opponent (Virginia Tech) which is allowing 390 to 440 yards per game, resulted in those favorites going 33-8 ATS (80.5%) since 2009. The average point-spread was -7.9 and those favorites outscored the underdogs by an average of 15.0 points per game. Bet on Cincinnati minus the points for a 5* wager.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Tennessee +3.5 (10*)

The uncertain status of Tennessee starting quarterback Marcus Mariota has already been factored into the current point-spread. Tennessee enters this final week of regular season action on a 4-game winning streak and with their playoff hopes on the line. Tennessee has gone an outstanding 16-3 during its previous 19 home games and that includes a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS (+10.7 PPG) when facing a fellow AFC South team. Conversely, the Colts are a dismal 4-12 in their last 16 away games which hardly bodes well for a road favorite of better than a field goal.

Any NFL regular season home underdog of 4.0 or less that’s playing after game 6 and is coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent (Colts) coming off a win by 31 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going an unblemished 14-0 ATS since 1981, and they won 13 of those contests straight up. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Marshall vs South Florida 8:00 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: South Florida +3.0 (10*)

South Florida won their first 7 games and then when on to lose its last 5 regular season contests. Before jumping to conclusions, keep this in mind, any team entering a bowl game that lost 5 or more games in a row has gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS since 1980. By the way, all 4 of those contests occurred since 2011. The average margin of victory was 13.5 points per game. In the Bulls defense, the 5 losses were to Houston (8-4), Tulane (7-6), Cincinnati (10-2), Temple (8-4), and Central Florida (12-0). Those 5 teams are currently a combined 45-16 (.737) this season.

This 2018 Gasparilla Bowl will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa which is South Florida’s home field. Moreover, teams playing in a bowl game on their home field have gone 21-12 straight up and 20-13 ATS since 1998. If those teams were an underdog and faced an opponent with a win percentage of .636 or better, they improved to 6-1 ATS and 5-2 straight up. Marshall enters this bowl game having finished 8-4 (.666) during regular season play. Bet on South Florida plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Buccaneers @ Ravens 1:00 ET

Game# 311-312

Play On: Baltimore -7.5 (10*)

Tampa Bay has gone a dismal 2-14 in their last 16 away games and that includes 1-7-2 ATS if they were an underdog of 9.5-points or fewer. As a matter of fact, after winning their season opener at New Orleans, Tampa lost their next 5 on the road and allowed a enormous 39.8 points per game while doing so.

Baltimore has maintained a strong home field advantage since John Harbaugh has taken over the head coaching duties. Under the guidance of Harbaugh, Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a non-division home favorite of 5.5 to 10.5 points when facing an opponent coming off a loss in their previous game. They won those 7 contests by a substantial 20.6 points per game. Baltimore’s playoff hopes will be hanging in the balance during the final 3 weeks of regular season action. They can ill afford to lose a game like this against a Tampa team that struggles on the road and comes in with a lousy 5-8 record. Bet on Baltimore minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Patriots @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET

Game# 117-118

Play On: Dolphins +9.0 (10*)

You may be very surprised to know that Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against New England, and that includes winning 4 of the last 5 meetings straight up. Miami has been awful on the road this season but has fared extremely well at home. Miami is 5-1 SU&ATS at Hard Rock Stadium in 2018. Conversely, New England is a perfect 6-0 at home but a beatable 3-3 on the road. Bet on Miami for a 10* Top Play wager.

Minnesota @ New England 4:25 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Minnesota +5.5 (10*)

New England is coming off a 27-13 win over the Jets in a game they covered as a 13.0-point road favorite.

Minnesota is coming off a 24-17 win over Green Bay in a game they covered as a home favorite. That win improved their season record to 6-4-1 (.600). Minnesota has gone an extremely profitable 35-9 ATS (79.5%) in their last 44 non-division games and all under current head coach Mike Zimmer.

Any regular season NFL away underdog of 10.0-points or fewer with a win percentage of .600 or better, and is playing after game 8 of their schedule, and is coming off a home favorite ATS win, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and allowed 17 points or fewer, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-1 ATS since 1984. Those road underdogs also won 11 of those 13 games straight up. Bet on Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Northwestern vs. Ohio State 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Northwestern +15.0 (10*)

Northwestern has thrived in the underdog role under current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Since the latter part of the 2014 season, Northwestern has gone an outstanding 20-7 ATS (74%) as an underdog and that includes 18-3 ATS (85.7%) when facing an opponent that’s not undefeated. Northwestern lost their Big 10 opener to Michigan and then preceded to win its last 7 conference games.

Ohio State is coming off a huge upset win against Michigan in their regular season finale. By doing so the Buckeyes have keep their college football playoff hopes alive. It would be difficult for me to imaging they will be able to match the intensity level they displayed a week ago. Ohio State may come out on top but this game will be much closer than people will anticipate. Bet on Northwestern plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Tennessee @ Houston 8:15 ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Tennessee +4.0 (10*)

After staring the season 0-3, Houston has reeled off 7 straight wins and will be seeking a franchise record 8-game winning streaks tonight. Houston is coming off a narrow 23-21 win at Washington in their previous game but failed to cover as a 3.0-point favorite. Conversely, Tennessee is coming off an embarrassing 38-10 loss at Indianapolis last week which dropped their record to 5-5. Yet, the sportsbooks have Tennessee currently listed as just a 3.5 or 4.0-point underdog for tonight’s game. It’s never that easy when it comes to sports betting and that’s especially so as it applies to NFL wagering.

Any Monday night NFL road team with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5, versus an opponent (Houston) coming off a non-division ATS loss and they possess a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those road teams going 16-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The road teams won those 16 contests by an average of 12.6 points per game. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 10* wager.

Seahawks @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET

Game# 263-264

Play On: Panthers -3.0 (10*)

Carolina has gone 28-6 during its last 34 home games and that includes a current 10-game win streak in Charlotte. On a negative note, the Panthers are coming off road losses in each of their previous 2 games. Conversely, Seattle is coming off a 27-24 home win over Green Bay. That victory evened the Seahawks season record at 5-5.

Any non-division home favorite of 2.0 to 5.0-points that’s coming off road losses in each of their previous 2 games played, versus an opponent who’s coming off a win and that possesses a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory was 14.2 points per game. Bet on the Panthers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Michigan @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET

Game# 161-162

Play On: Ohio State 5.0 (10*)

Since 2011, Michigan is a dismal 2-12 straight up in away games against teams with a win percentage of better than .666. Conversely, since 2012, Ohio State has gone a terrific 28-1 during conference home games. Furthermore, Ohio State has won 13 of their last 14 against Michigan and is a perfect 6-0 against the Wolverines with Urban Meyer as their head coach. There’s just way too much home underdog value on the Buckeyes in this contest to pass up on. Bet on Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Nebraska @ Iowa 12:00 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Iowa -9.5 (10*)

Nebraska is coming off last Saturday’s 9-6 home win over Michigan State. That victory improved the Cornhuskers record to 4-7 and all 4 wins occurred on their home field. Iowa is coming off a 63-0 blowout win at Illinois in a game in which they covered as a 16.0-point road favorite. The combination of these teams results in their last games sets up an extremely successful college football point-spread betting angle which is illustrated below.

Any conference home favorite of 34.0-points or less (Iowa) that’s coming off a conference ATS win as an away favorite of 7.0-points or more in which they held their opponent scoreless, and they’re facing a team (Nebraska) that wasn’t shutout in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 32-2 ATS (94.1%) since 1992. Bet on Iowa minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Redskins @ Cowboys 4:30 ET

Game# 107-108

Play On: Redskins +7.5 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a thrilling 22-19 road win at Atlanta while doing so as a 3.0-point underdog. That win evened the Cowboys record at 5-5 (.500). Dallas is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite this season, and they lost 2 of those contests straight up.

The Redskins are coming off a 23-21 home loss to Houston. Although they covered that contest as a 3.0-point underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 6-4 which is still good for 1st place in the NFC East standings. Adding insult to injury with no pun intended, they lost their starting quarterback Alex Smith for the year in that contest after he suffered a gruesome leg injury. Colt McCoy will assume the starting quarterback and he’s proven to be very capable when given the opportunity which included nearly rallying the Redskins to a win in that loss against Houston. By the way, Washington is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS (+12.7 PPG) if they’re coming off a loss in their previous game.

Chiefs @ Rams 8:15 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Rams -3.0 (5*)

After running several NFL handicapping algorithms on this game, it was clear that games played in this precise situation clearing favorited the home favorite. Additionally, according to one major offshore sportsbook, 72% of point-spread betting ticket have gone the way of the underdog Chiefs. Since I’m not a big fan of siding with public betting, it’s just added that much more sugar to my spice.

Let’s start with all the betting parameters I used for the 3 extremely successful betting angles illustrated below. For starters, both teams enter this game with identical 9-1 (.900) records. The Rams suffered their only loss 2 weeks ago during a 45-35 setback at New Orleans. Kansas City is coming off last Sunday’s 26-14 home win over Arizona.

Any NFL home favorite (Rams) of 5.0-points or less that’s playing after game 9 of their season, and own a win percentage of .900 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a winning record, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 8 contests was 16.4 points per game.

Any home favorite (Rams) that’s won 3 of its last 4 games and is facing an opponent (Chiefs) that’s won 8 or more of its previous 10 contests, resulted in those home favorites going 25-4 ATS (86.2%) since 2009.

Any Monday night home favorite (Rams) that’s playing after game 9 of the season with a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off a win and has a win percentage of .643 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 10-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests was 22.2 points per game. Bet on the Rams minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Houston @ Washington 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Washington +3.0 (10*)

Houston enters this week on a red-hot 6-game winning streak. However, none of those 6 opponents currently have a winning record. It will get much tougher on the road this Sunday against a 6-3 Redskins team.

Speaking of the Redskins, they have plenty of successful experiences as a home underdog since 2015. Excluding season openers, Washington is 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog, and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS if they were facing a non-division opponent. Bet on Washington plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cincinnati @ Central Florida 8:00 PM ET

Game# 353-354

Play On: Central Florida -7.0 (10*)

Central Florida is coming off last Saturday’s 35-24 win over Navy. That victory improved their season record to a perfect 9-0. Cincinnati is coming off last week’s 35-23 win over South Florida. The Bearcats head into this huge American Athletic Conference showdown with an impressive 9-1 record.

Any home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0-points (UCF) with an undefeated record that’s playing after Game 9 of the season, and they’re coming off a win by 38 points or less while scoring 21 points or more, versus an opponent with at least 1 loss on the season, and they’re coming off a win in which they scored 31 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 ATS since 1988. The average margin of victory in those contests came by a decisive margin of 19.5 points per game. Bet on Central Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Seattle @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: LA Rams -9.0 (10*)

The worst thing that happened for Seattle regarding this matchup is the Rams suffering their first loss of the season last Sunday at New Orleans. Since 10/15/2017, the Rams are 3-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a loss in their previous contest and they won by an average of 17.0 points per game. They’re also 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS during their previous 6 games as a home favorite and their winning margin was 14.5 points per contest. The Rams have outscored Seattle 75-38 during the last 2 times these division rivals have met while winning both of those contests. The Seahawks defense had no answer for stopping Todd Gurley in those 2 losses to their division rival. Gurley rushed for a combined 229 and scored 7 touchdowns in those Rams wins. I look for more of the same on Sunday. Take the Rams minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Miami Fla. @ Georgia Tech 7:00 PM ET

Game# 139-140

Play On: Georgia Tech -3.0 (10*)

Miami has gone 0-3 SU&ATS during their last 3 games and were a favorite in each of those contests. Their offense has been anemic throughout this current losing streak and scored 14 points or fewer on each occasion. Furthermore, the Hurricanes last win came on 10/6 in a 28-27 home win over a not very good Florida State team, and they had to overcome a 27-7 second half deficit in that contest. Miami comes into this game with a disappointing 5-4 (.555) record after being ranked in the Top 20 throughout the first half of this season.

Georgia Tech is coming off SU&ATS wins in their previous 2 games. Even more impressive is both those wins came on the road at Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Additionally, they’ve gone 4-1 SU&ATS during their last 5 games and forced 13 turnovers throughout that time. The Yellowjackets enter this week with a 5-4 (.555) record.

Any conference home favorite of 4.5-points or less with a win percentage of .750 or worse, coming off conference away SU&ATS wins in their previous 2 games and last they covered their previous contest by 2.0-points or more, and they’re playing after Game 7 of their season, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 20-1 ATS (95.2%) since 1981. Bet on Georgia Tech minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

LA Rams @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (5*)

New Orleans is coming off an impressive 30-20 win at Minnesota last Sunday night. That marked their 6th straight win following a loss to Tampa Bay in their season opener. The Saints are also a very good 21-11 during their previous 32 games overall. The Rams remained unbeaten following last week’s 29-27 home win over Green Bay.

Any home team (New Orleans) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .600 or better, and they’ve won 24 game or fewer of their previous 32 contests. versus an opponent (LA Rams) who’s coming off a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 70-9 (88.6%) straight up since 1983. Considering the home team is an underdog in this spot, the straight up results in this betting angle take on an enormous amount more significance. Bet on New Orleans plus the points for a 5* wager.

Michigan State @ Maryland 12:00 PM ET

Game# 347-348

Play On: Maryland +3.0 (10*)

Michigan State is coming off a tough 3-game stretch in which they went 2-1 against Penn State, Michigan, and Purdue. Furthermore, following Saturday’s game at Maryland they’ll be hosting Ohio State and will be presented with an opportunity to squelch the Buckeyes national championship aspirations. With that in mind, this shapes up for a potential flat sport for a Spartans team which has already endured 3 losses this season.

Maryland has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in conference home games this season. Granted the competition in those wins was less than stellar. However, they defeated Minnesota, Rutgers, and Illinois by an average of 28.7 points per game. The Terrapins also upset #15 Texas earlier this season and did so as a 12.0-point underdog.

Maryland enters this week with a solid 5-3 record. The Terrapins racked up 712 yards of total offense in last Saturday 63-33 home win over Illinois. Maryland is averaging 377.6 yards of total offense per game and they’ll be facing a Michigan State defense which is yielding 353.2 yards per contest throughout its first 8 games. Which leads us to a powerful college football betting angle illustrated below which heavily favors the home underdog in this matchup.

Any college football home underdog playing after Game 6 of their season that averages 330 to 390 yards of total offense per game, and they amassed 475 yards or more of total offense in their previous game, versus an opponent (Michigan State) that surrenders 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home underdogs going 39-4 (90.7%) straight up since 1992. Bet on Maryland plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.  

Green Bay @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: LA Rams -8.5 (10*)

This is largest underdog role that Aaron Rogers has seen since he’s been Green Bay’s starting quarterback. Hence, the public has been hammering the sportsbooks with Packers bets like they’re stealing money from an open safe. The Packers enter this week with a mediocre 3-2-1 record and they’ve gone just 14-18 during their last 32 away games. The Rams are a perfect 7-0 thus far and are coming off last Sunday’s 39-10 win at San Francisco while easily covering as a 9.0-point favorite.

Any undefeated NFL non-division home favorite (LA Rams) that’s playing in games 2 through 8 of their season, and they’re coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they won straight up by 13 points or more, versus an opponent (Green Bay) with at least 1 loss, and they’ve won 14 or less of its last 32 away games, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 21.0 points per game. Bet on the LA Rams minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Navy vs. Notre Dame 8:00 PM ET

Game# 207-208

Play On: Notre Dame -23.5 (10*)

The only team that will prevent Notre Dame from winning this game by 4 touchdowns or more is Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a bye week and look for them to put forth an inspired effort after barely surviving against Pittsburgh in their previous game. As a matter of fact, that narrow 20-14 win as a 20.0-point home favorite may have been the worst thing for Navy. I look for Notre Dame to be a focused and hungry team in this nationally televised primetime matchup. This has been a down year for Navy this far and look for a continuation of just that on Saturday night. The Midshipmen won’t be able to match the physicality of Notre Dame’s offensive and defensive line. They’ll be worn out by the time 2nd half action rolls around. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

LA Rams @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: San Francisco +9.5 (10*)

San Francisco gave Green Bay all they can handle this past Monday night at Lambeau Field before losing 33-30 on a last second field goal. The 49ers easily covered that contest as a sizable 9.0-point road underdog.

The Rams came away with an uninspiring 23-20 road win at Denver last week and they failed to cover as a 7.0-point road favorite for a second consecutive week. In any event, they improved their season record to a perfect 6-0. Since 1983, NFL teams playing in their 3rd consecutive road game they gone just 81-152 straight up. If those teams are coming off a straight up win they’ve gone 3-9 straight up and 2-10 ATS since 2014.

Any NFL home underdog of 10.0-points or fewer that scored 19 points or fewer in their previous game, and they’re facing an undefeated opponent playing in Game 7 of their season, and that opponent scored 36 points or less in their previous outing, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Bet on San Francisco plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Oregon @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 367-368

Play On: Washington State -2.5 (10*)

Washington State is coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous 2 games. They barely coved in their previous game as an 18.5-point favorite during a 56-37 victory at Oregon State. That win improved the Cougars season record to 5-1 (.833). Oregon is coming off last Saturday’s thrilling 30-27 overtime win over then #7 Washington and they did so as a 3.5-point home underdog. The Ducks also enter this contest with a 5-1 (.833) record. I entered previously mentioned data into my college football handicapping software and it spit out a never lost ATS betting angle which is detailed below.

Any college football home favorite of 5.5-points or fewer that owns a win percentage of .833 or less after Game 5 of their season, and is coming off SU&ATS win in each of their previous 2 contests, and they covered their previous game by 32.0 or less while scoring 24 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a straight win and who possesses a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 19-0 ATS since 1980. The average victory margin in those 19 contests was 20.1 points per game. Bet on Washington State as a 10* Top Play wager.