030117

4* Sacred Heart+ (577) over Mount St. Mary’s @ 7:00 Eastern

This should be somewhat of an overlay considering the spread opened at -8-1/2 at the Westgate, -9 and some off-shore outlets.  No matter, this is a triple revenge situation for Sacred Heart versus home standing Mount Saint Mary’s (16-15) is coming off a 77-62 success and a wild game over St. Francis-NY, prior they had lost to LIU on the road 62-58.  The Mount is 8-4 SU at home this season but, 0-3 SU on Wednesday’s.  Overall, they have won 7-of-the-last 10 SU but, come is 3-7 ATS L10.  Although they average just 67.8 points per game this season, they have improved over the last five outings 72.5 points per.  On the season, they are scoring just 67.8 points a game.    Defensively, Mount St. Mary’s has improved by three points a game the last five, 65.8 points.  Whereas, Sacred Heart can score and is averaging 77.2 points per game the last five out.  In addition, have competitive numbers 40.3% from three, and a critical 76.8% from the foul line. From the emotional standpoint, and despite the site, in this quarterfinal game in the NEC they just be overlooking an aggressive unit considering they won both conference games this season.  TAKE THE POINTS! 

4* SPC (851) over Canisius

A unique sort of revenge game statistically fraught with historical contradictions.  Exactly, in their last meeting this early February Canisius (17-13) held off SPC (17-12) on the road 72-70 shooting an incredible 54.9% from the field.  The Griffs were lax in the lanes and gave away too many open shots.  Now the Peacocks visit looking to return the favor carrying a solid 5 game win streak but, versus bad teams in conference.  The Griffs have lost back to back games coming in and must rebound to assure solid post season positioning.  However, in Vegas they are 6-14 ATS at home, and obviously the Peacocks have the emotional edge.  This late in the season, as we saw yesterday, current form is critical and that factor favors SPC the last five games scoring at 71.2 points per game allowing 49.8 points, while shooting 51%, 46.7% from three and 75% foul shooting.  I remind you the Griffs have come up short the last five games surrendering 77.6 points.  With SPC off a solid Friday edition and going 7-0 ATS on the road, lay the small number. 

5* LaSalle +1 (817) over UMASS

A-10 GAME OF THE MONTH...BDS

Rough spot for LaSalle traveling after shooting downer at home vs. Rams.  And that was after an emotional blowout win over banged up St. Joe on the same floor.  The M's show after three straight losses both SU & ATS losing by an average of 16 points with a 96-66 loss to Duquesne thrown in (?).  But, they have one of the best ATS marks on Sunday 13-2-1 L16.  LaSalle is finally getting accumulated to guard Powell being back in the lineup and he should have a big game.  In their initial meeting February 1st the Explorers won big at home 88-77 with Bob Johnson having monster game (28 points with 11 DRs).  No doubt UMass has a more effective defense than LaSalle.  Still, over the last five games (current form) they have allowed 80.8 points per.  With the line minimal we look for hidden edges inside the floor game and LaSalle has a major advantage in foul shooting and three balling the L5 games.  Although, this is revenge game for UMass can't back 1-9 ATS unit laying any points, especially considering the 3-12-2 ATS as home chalk.  LaSalle should be ready after hangover loss (St.Joe) vs. Rams when they shot just 36% overall.  Good Luck.

LATE MONEY MOVE....grab the line with +2-1/2 or higher.

5* Towson (537)+ over William & Mary @ 2:00

CAA GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Normally would not go against the Bill and Mary at home in a revenge situation in conference but, Towson (19-11) does have more overall talent and is trying to win a tourney championship for the first time, currently seeded #3 in CAA rounds next week.  The Tigers dropped a rough go last time to conference leading UNCW (25-5) on their floor.  Towson had won 6 straight prior, including a win over William and Mary 82-80.  Where Towson has improved the last five games is on defense allowing 68.6 points per game.  The Tribe (15-13) shows with a 12-1 SU mark at home.   In addition, the average win margin the last five home games is around 20 points per but, seemingly this is a different team than in prior years.  They were the tourney runner-up the last two seasons, however, they will see a 4th, 5th or 6th seed this time around.   Over their last six games they've covered only two.  Where they falter is on defense as documented the last five times on the floor with 82.6% points per game allowed.   Remember too, they were just crushed by Hofstra 96-82...mood? Technically, the dog has covered 3 straight in the series with the road unit 6-2 ATS of late.  Would normally give credence to the Tribe, however, still can't trust their defensive fall off this season.  Good Luck.

02/25/17

4* Bucknell (722) over Navy @ 12:00 Eastern

The Bisons (22-8) in their last home game and final regular season conference game face Navy (15-14) who they defeated earlier 59-55.  However, Bucknell did not play well in that encounter after a very emotional loss to Princeton 72-70, which still must have the school’s professors pissed off.  Navy visits off three straight losses by an average of 12.6 points, two of the teams were horrid Army and American.  As we know the Middies are grinders, play hard defense, position by position.  They have held the opposition to 64.8 points per game, but have failed lately and maybe a real tired bunch for this Patriot League encounter.  Bucknell plays in first place conference wide and will have the #1 seed in the post season tournament not playing until March 2nd, so you can expect a valid effort here.  Remember the Bisons are an outstanding shooting team ranked #22 in FG%, and come in off a 5 game run of 49%, while shooting 44.7% from three.  Believe Navy will develop trouble trying to reposition the Bisons deep threats, causing foul problems and slowed tempo.  The last time on this floor Bucknell handled Navy 88-58 back in December 2015.  In closing, the Middies are just 2-7 ATS L9 and 2-5 ATS vs. home unit with a >.600 mark.   Bucknell has covered 4 straight, 4-1 in conference and 6-2-1 ATS in Saturday editions.  Good Luck.

10* Hofstra (527) over James Madison @ 12:00 Eastern

TRIPLE REVENGE....Visiting Pride on a mission after losing three straight to JMU, and in fact, two OT losses in 2016 were simply heart breakers for the NY kids.  Hofstra (14-16) has covered 8-of-11 down in Virginia, while going 1-5 ATS in the series of late.   Still, must go against JMU off their emotional road win last time out over Drexel up in Philly.  Where, again, the Dragons committed too many ball handling errors down the stretch allowing the Dukes to win and cover.  Remember Madison (9-21) is just 1-6 ATS on Saturday, while Hofstra has covered on the road of late 3-1-1 ATS to be exact.   

Special note, since the JMU 4 game win streak early this season they have gone on a real downer 4-10 SU.  And in the earlier game with Hofstra the Dukes shot (for them) a solid 52.2% from the field. Can't see any effectiveness from the arc today, considering Hofstra has been allowing opponents just 26.7% from three the last five games, which should help the Hofstra break.  Finally, if JMU shows as a conference underdog in this encounter (with line movement), Hofstra becomes a stronger situation considering JMU becomes a home dog that won SU last time out, and went UNDER the total (old conference system).

022417

5* Princeton (865) over Columbia @ 7:00 Eastern

Not afraid to lay inflated road number with defensive smart Tigers (17-6) in this late season Ivy clash.   The Tigers sit nicely in the playoff realm Ivy style with a 10-0 league record, inconsistent defensive Lions show 4-6 and have NO shot of making the post season.  In their initial game this season down in New Jersey, Columbia (10-13) dropped a heart breaker 71-69 with the recent series battles being fairly close.  So, you can understand why the line is just -7 or -7-1/2 this morning.  The last test had Princeton -14, and they did not cover on the Strip.   Now, in current form must support Princeton who has been in shutdown mode defensively over the last five games holding the opposition to 54.2 points per game, shooting overall almost 48% from the field and 44.4% from the arc, while being deadly on the charity stripe with an incredible 83.3% mark.  Princeton does not waste offensive positions, just ask Harvard and Yale.  Technically, the visitor is 14-2 ATS in this series with Princeton on an incredible 7-0 ATS run at Columbia.  Although, we are always searching for the letdown theory application, feel Columbia’s 7-20 ATS mark as a home dog illustrates a whole different story that can be applied.

022317

4* James Madison (527) over Drexel @ 7:00 Eastern

What makes this situation more playable is the injury bug that has hit Drexel.  They could be minus two on the bench in this battle up in Philly.   The Dragons are 2-8 SU L10 and 0-3 SU and ATS most recently.  They do possess a winning record of 15-12 but, are just shooting 62.7% since early February.  In their last five games the foul shooting has killed them, 62% and the arc probability shows 35%.   James Madison (8-21) who has suffered through some tough losses this season travels looking to sweep the in season series after defeating Drexel in December at home.  Remember the Dukes have won 6 straight in the series and were favored in the last three games, winning and covering.  Now Madison is inked as road dog with the chalk and home team carrying solid ATS results but, this is Drexel!

4* Rider (879) +9-1/2 not less over Iona

Granted Iona (18-10) has the more talent and wiped out the Broncos on the road in January 95-76 but, now you're paying for the public perception if you're going chalk.  The favorite in the series has covered 5-of-7 but, at home in this price range, the Gaels are a horrid 5-13-1 ATS.  Both Rider (14-14) and Iona over their last five games have completely forgotten the word "defense."   Each is allowing in the 80's, but I like the fact the Broncos are shooting more effectively from the charity stripe of late considering the inflated number.  Also, Rider comes in 10-4 ATS in Sunday edition's.

021917

4* Canisius (873) over Marist @ 2:00 Eastern

Difficult number laying it on the road but, 6-22 Marist has too many defensive deficits to offset scoring abilities of the Griffs.  Canisius (17-11) has won and covered three straight in this series by an average of 22.3 points per game.   And now Marist shows with a defense that has been non-existent the last five games allowing 52% from the field.  Remember, Canisius in their current streak has been hot from three shooting a nice 41.2% from the arc.  Playing on foreign boards can be a real downer in the month of February when facing revenge by the opposition but, like our chances with the Griffs who are 23-7-1 ATS in the series, while shooting lights out.  Good Luck.

4* William & Mary (619) over Delaware

Not afraid to test the Blue Hens off their heart stopping win over Drexel by one on this court.  William & Mary (14-12) who has been inconsistent lately (especially) on defense comes in off the JMU loss.  But, WM should have the emotional edge off that loss playing with a 1-3 SU and ATS record L4 times on the hardwood.  Offensively, in their last five games, they are averaging a solid 83.2 points per game 51% from the field and 38.4% from three.   Critical here, the Blue Hens defense from the arc recently has been allowing around 43% effectiveness.  Overall, in this series Delaware has a commanding edge ATS at 17-6 L23 battle.  However, the visitor WM has won and covered the last three by an average margin of 25 points.  WM is 6-2 ATS in the CAA and 25-7-2 ATS off a SU loss showing consistency bouncing back.  Would expect the line to drop this evening to -6 or -6-1/2 with some public interest on Delaware, but can't pass up a chance to use an offensive-minded unit off a loss who has shown recent dominance in this series.

021817

10* Buffalo (562) over Miami Ohio @ 3:30 Eastern

When of the great trends so far in February has been same season revenge with a unit that has been playing off the charts L5 times on the hardwood.  Mid-American’s Buffalo has been rolling scoring 89.8 points per game with a 50.2% FG, and almost 40% from the arc.  Their offensive rebound numbers have improved too, 40.4% the last five.  Buffalo (14-12) has won 5 straight games overall.  Miami Ohio (10-16) at this point is not consistent enough to stay with the home standing unit.  Over the last six games in the series the ATS winner has switched successes, MO won and covered back in January by just one point at home. The spread series has recently belonged to MO but, can’t expect any response good enough to stay within this hefty price tag.   Remember over the L10 games, 0-10 SU and 3-10 SU in conference.  Buffalo is 4-0 ATS as chalk, 6-1 in this price range.  Overall the red hot unit is 15-5-1 ATS in the Mid-American Conference.

021717

4* Pennsylvania (859) over Brown @ 8:00 Eastern

Penn (9-12) travels to Rhode Island Friday knowing they have back-to-back revenge games with Brown and Yale this weekend.  Quakers come in off an improved run of back-to-back wins defeating Cornell and Columbia. Just as a support note, the Bears lost to Columbia recently.   Brown (11-13) has been hurt this season by their horrid defense which has allowed 80.4 points per game last five times out. The Bears have not held an Ivy unit to under 70 points.   Brown is just 2-8 SU L10 losing three straight to Dartmouth, Harvard and Columbia.  Theoretically, this is a bigger game for Penn knowing the Bears have won 6-of-7 in the series (7-0 ATS).  The road team (Penn) here is 11-4 ATS in the long-time series.  With the Quakers improving offensively, and considering the short price we’ll back their 6-2 ATS record in the price range of 0-5-6.5, and their nice 5-2 ATS record on the road vs. .600 plus home unit.

021717

4* Canisius (867) over Rider @ 7:00 Eastern

The Griffs (16-11) show up for a revenge situation in New Jersey against (14-13) Rider who won their initial meeting (01/30/17) 72-66 shooting 50% from the field.   However, can’t expect the #175th rated scoring offense to sweep the series against a visitor who can go on torrid long-distance runs from the field.  Canisius is averaging almost 82 points per game when traveling.   Granted Rider has the slightly better defense, but don’t trust a unit in almost in a pick situation that shoots 66.9% from the charity line.  The Broncos have covered 4-of-5 in the series but, Canisius is a super hot 9-1 ATS on the road versus a unit with a winning home mark.   And, they have a solid 9-3 ATS record overall on the road.

021517

4* Butler (564) over St. John’s @ 8:30 Eastern

CBB Blowout Alert…BDS

It would be easy to look at the Jonnies (12-14) recent 5-0 ATS run and on point 5-1 ATS record as a dog in this price range, but refer laying the points here.  Critical, the St. John’s defense “observing” defense leaves much to be desired whether home or away.   The did defeat Butler on in NY last December 76-73, but was smashed in the rebound outing (February) 89-56.  In the series, Butler has covered back-to-back games when booked as a double-digit chalk.  Now the Johnnies catch the Bulldogs off a heart-breaking loss, and seemingly a rough spot.   Remember, Butler comes in 8-1 ATS off a SU loss, and 10-4 ATS at home.   Also, the Butler defense (67.8) should be once again the difference in the game.  With a revenge game for the Bulldogs, coming off a SU loss, and at home, lay the points.  Good Luck.

021517

5* Temple (537) over East Carolina @ 7:00 Eastern

Noting, we are forecasting Owls (14-12) knowing, East Carolina guard Tyson (11.9) remains questionable (1:45 Eastern) for the game.  The Pirates (11-14) are at home in a same season revenge conference situation.   However, they have not played well of late and appear to have too many on court deficiencies to take advantage of traveling Temple. The Owls have perked recently playing well against talented Memphis.  And, bring an early January win 81-62 over ECU up in Philly to the court tonight.  The series has seen and exchange of wins of late.  Still, recent fundamentals point to the Owls who have far the superior offense in the last five games at 70.4 vs. ECUs 59.2.  Granted the Pirates have played slightly better defensively in the time span.  However, we must remember latter in the season in the second game of a home and away series, defenses seem to improve for the respective units.  Critical, the Pirates have a major deficit (29.9% vs. 35.6% for Temple) shooting from deep the last five times out, and their overall 64.2% foul shooting ineptness will hurt against a class coach like Fran Dunphy of Temple.  With the Owls having an outside shot at some tournament, and possessing an edge in strength of schedule must back their 5-1 ATS mark as chalk in this favorite price range.   In closing, Temple has covered 4-of-5 in the series.  Good Luck.

4* Ole Miss over LSU

Rough spot for the Tigers this evening, on the road versus triple revenge-minded Rebels.  We note the line evaluation has changed to OLE MISS -11-/2 or -12 tonight from LSU -10 last January.  That 21-1/2 point swing is an eye opener but, must critique current reality Tigers defense that is apathetic as they come.  Good Luck.

021417

4* Canisius+ (756) over Iona @ 7:00 Eastern

Talk about a revenge situation?   Well, the Griffs are looking to reverse their lackluster performance in January against the Gaels, who crushed the visitor 98-75 shooting an amazing 61%.  Iona (17-9) has won 4 straight in the series going 3-1 ATS.  In the last four series outings Iona has been favored -5, -12-1/2, -11-1/2, and -1.  The line here opened at -1-1/2 and is down to -1 overnight.  Canisius is 8-2 as an underdog, while the Gaels show 0-6 ATS off an ATS win.  Believe you will see a very close game throughout with Iona not shooting anywhere near 61% this time.  The key for Canisius is improve their second chance shots and rebounding.   Considering they will have the emotional edge, I’ll back their 7-2 ATS mark at home in the series, especially with the dog 15-7-1 ATS in its history.  TAKE ANY POINTS!

Don't miss our SEC special and late money moves!

021317

5* Monmouth (545) over Siena @ 7:00 Eastern

CBB Eastern Edge…BDS

At first glance this appears to be an upset spot for home standing Siena (12-14).  After all, the Hawks have won 11 straight and show off a scare in a road challenge versus Manhattan last week.  In their last series battle Monmouth (21-5) out-scored Siena 93-87 back in February 2016.  In the overall series, the Hawks have won 4 straight, 3-1 ATS in Vegas.  Critical from the current reality standpoint  Siena’s defense continues fading allowing 77.6 points per game last five times on the court, causing much doubt in the upset category.  Interesting the Saints come in off back-to-back road wins over Marist and Iona running their streak to 4-0 (4-0 ATS) L4 away.  Of late, Siena is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS at home.  Doubt aspiring Hawks will letdown as they continue to play well ATS on the road against home units with a .600 SU mark.  Like our chances with the more talented unit, Monmouth.  Good Luck.