I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Saturday.  The Texas offense has only looked strong, (from a balanced standpoint), in one game this season, a 56-0 win over San Jose State.  But we take nothing from that game as SJSU may be the worst FBS team in the nation.  We take more from Texas' lack of offensive output against Iowa State last Thursday night.  The Cyclones had a horrible game plan themselves, passing the ball deep downfield over and over.  Texas was never challenged, yet finished with just 312 total yards, which included a mediocre night from QB Shane Buechele, and a running game that average less than 3 yards per carry.  We also note Texas averaged just 1.9 yards per carry against a slightly banged-up USC defense.  Kansas State is terrific on defense and on the other side of the ball, run it well, averaging a 27th best 229 yards per game.  K-State held Vandy to 2 yards per carry in their other road game this season and we expect another stout effort here.  The Wildcats have covered eight of the last 10 meetings, while Texas is on a 1-7 ATS slide the week before the big rivalry game with Oklahoma.  I'm grabbing the points with Kansas State, my Road Warrior.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday.  Nice revenge spot for the Cougars, but that's a small part of the equation.  Line value is obviously the main reason we make our plays on certain teams and the Cougars own the value in this one.  Houston has been a favorite of 21 or more in each of the last three meetings, including last year when they lost outright as a 23-point favorite.  While some faces have changed, including new HC Major Applewhite and no more Greg Ward at QB, the Cougars are still averaging over 280 yards passing per game.  But Houston has taken on the tougher slate, which includes a 19-16 win at Arizona and a tough 27-24 loss against an improved Texas Tech squad. SMU has had just one step-up game so far this season and the defense got clobbered, allowing 56 points in a 20-point loss to TCU.  SMU allowed 619 yards and 30 first downs.  They gave up over 5 yards per carry on the ground and a 24 of 30, 4 TDs & 0 INTs night through the air.  I'm not too crazy about SMU QB Ben Hicks who has completed just 54% of his passes after completing just 55% a season ago.  Hicks threw 15 INTs last season and while he's thrown just three this year, he's only faced one strong defense, throwing two against TCU.  His lack of accuracy and propensity to force throws means Houston could be in for a big pick or two in this one.  Our raw power numbers have Houston 11 points better than SMU in this contest, a big and rare gap for us.  We trust our power ratings and will back the Houston Cougars minus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with West Virginia on Saturday.  TCU's value is gone thanks to the big win over Oklahoma State two weeks ago.  The Horned Frogs find themselves laying nearly two full TDs when our raw power ratings are four points lower even with a few Mountaineer defenders potentially banged-up for this contest.  But we like the deep WVU running game to keep this one tight throughout.  The ground attack, ranked 26th in the nation really opens things up for the nation's 7th ranked passing offense.  And let's not forget that TCU was out-gained in the win over Oklahoma State, allowing 499 yards. The Cowboys simply couldn't overcome a 4-turnover night.  Being overvalued is nothing new for TCU, which is why they're on a 1-10 ATS slide at home.  The Horned Frogs might gain a measure of revenge from last year's loss, but we are betting the Mountaineers will hang the number.  I'm taking the points with West Virginia, our Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Florida State on Saturday.  The Seminoles haven't been the same since losing to Alabama and losing star QB Deondre Francois in the process.  But this team is beyond battle-tested, having also played NC State and Wake Forest.  Big win last week against the Demon Deacons, finding a way to win on the road.  We feel the first win of the season will be a jumpstart for this team and expect another win here.  FSU has had to deal with injuries, but Miami has played a soft slate, facing Bethune Cookman, Toledo, and an overrated Duke squad. Miami actually finished with 5 fewer first downs than Duke, but took care of business when needed.  Their top RB, Mark Walton, is probable, but his ankle is not 100%.  FSU is stingy against the run...and the defensive backfield will be by far the best one Miami QB Malik Rosier has faced.  Defensively, the Hurricanes' secondary leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 92nd against the pass, which we believe will be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Seminoles offense.  The dog has covered 15 of the last 18 in this series and Florida State is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run when listed as the underdog.  I'm taking the points with Florida State, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Thursday.  The last time the Pats started 2-2 was the 2014 season.  The defense looked suspect allowing 33 points in a 13-point loss to Miami and 41 points in a 27-point loss to Kansas City.  The very next week, the Patriots were a 2.5-point underdog to Cincy, but slammed the Bengals, 43-17. New England's defense looked just as bad in a couple games this season and the Pats are no longer the favorite to win the Super Bowl, falling behind Pittsburgh in Las Vegas books.  But they're facing a Tampa Bay defense ranked 31st against the pass.  Tom Brady and company ought to eat this defense up, whether Gronk is healthy enough to play or not.  Offensively, the Buccs are led by Jameis Winston, who continues to toss turnover-worthy passes game after game and already has a 3-INT game against the Vikings.  Winston has no help around him in the ground game to keep defenses honest.  The Pats enter on a 28-13 ATS run after allowing at least 30 points.  They're on a 5-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning record, and the Pats are 41-18-1 ATS off a SU loss.  We aren't giving up on the Pats just yet.  In fact, we're backing them here.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots, our Thursday Knockout.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday.  After disposing of the Titans in a fairly close battle and crushing the NY Jets, the Raiders came back to earth in a thumping at the hands of the Redskins.  Denver looked almost as sluggish in their outright loss in Buffalo.  But after the tough roadie, we expect Denver to bounce back at home. The fears and concerns some had regarding the Raiders' defense before the season, came to fruition when Kirk Cousins carved them up.  Offensively, we expect the Raiders to have some issues again.  One trusted stat site reported that Derek Carr is averaging a league-worst, 2.3 yards per pass under pressure and he was under pressure a lot on Sunday night.  That's scary news for Oakland facing Denver's outstanding rush ends, backed by a pair of elite corners. Denver enters on an 8-2-1 ATS run in the series.  They have also been an outstanding bankroll builder during the first half of the last couple seasons, covering 12 of 16.  I'm laying the points with the Broncos on Sunday, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the LA Chargers on Sunday, our Smackdown.  The Chargers were expected to be a darkhorse in the AFC West this season, but a tough 0-3 SU start has them at the bottom of the standings.  They actually out-gained KC last week and trailed by just 7 points, 17-10, with 2 minutes to go in the game, despite Philip Rivers looking like a turnover machine (3 INTs).  The Chargers are virtually two special teams plays away from a win in their first two games, and a couple of scrimmage plays away against KC from a possible 3-0 record.  Philly comes to town with a messy secondary, thanks in part to injuries.  The Eagles have allowed 266 yards passing per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.  They have allowed their last two opposing QBs, Eli Manning and Alex Smith to connect on 56 of 75 passes, a 75% completion rate. Offensively, Carson Wentz has been good but not great and we believe he's in for a rough outing with his bruised offensive line matched up against the Chargers' outstanding rush ends.  The Eagles have covered just two of their last nine road games, while the Chargers have covered four straight ATS off a double digit home loss.  We cashed going against the Eagles last week and we'll do so again in week-4.  We'll back the Chargers, our Smackdown on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  Houston came close at New England last week, but fell short when Tom Brady picked the defense apart on a game winning drive.  Deahaun Watson found plenty of holes in the Patriots' pass defense, which is still attempting to get on the same page.  The Pats made numerous mistakes in coverage. We highly doubt the fundamentally sound Titans will allow the same looks for Watson this week.  Offensively, Tennessee is moving defenses off the ball.  They ran the ball 36 times for 179 yards two weeks ago and another 35 times for 195 yards in last week's win over Seattle. The ground game takes pressure off Marcus Mariota and the passing game and we expect more success against a middle of the pack Houston defense.  But the biggest problem for Houston is the one dimensional offense, that runs well, but ranks 31st through the air.  Tennessee is 12-4 ATS after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games, while Houston has covered just 2 of 9 against teams that average at least 27 ppg under HC Bill O'Brien.  I'm backing Tennessee minus the points, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado on Saturday night.  The next time the UCLA Bruins slow an opponent down will be the first time.  The Bruins' defense has allowed 44, 48, and 58 points to Texas A&M, Memphis, and Stanford.  And even though Hawaii "only" scored 23 points against UCLA, the Warriors out-gained the Bruins 515-505.  Besides allowing over 43 ppg, UCLA ranks 130th against the run and 125th in total yards allowed per game.  Colorado lost to Washington last weekend, trailing 17-10 with about 4 minutes left in the third before the wheels came off as turnovers did them in.  But the Buffaloes' defense held Josh Browning to 11 of 21 passing for 160 yards with a TD and an INT.  It was Browning's worst game of the season.  I expect Josh Rosen to get his numbers, but without a ground game (104th in the nation) UCLA is slightly easier to defend.  This number is simply too high compared to our power ratings. CU has covered six of their last seven road games, while the Bruins are on a 1-7 ATS September slide.  UCLA is on a 1-6 ATS slide when laying 3 1/2 to 10 points, including 0-2 ATS this season.  I'm taking the points with Colorado, our DogPound on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker Game of the Month.  Scheduling lies completely in favor of the Huskies in this one.  NIU had last week off after beating Nebraska in Lincoln.  And if he has to go again, they've had one more week to get QB Daniel Santacaterina more reps with the first team -- not that he's had any issues so far, completing 38 of 56, 68% of his passes with 3 TDs and just 1 INT. The NIU signal caller also has help in the offensive backfield from RB Jordan Huff, who topped 100 yards rushing against Nebraska and is averaging 6.84 yards per carry in his 238 attempts at NIU.  The defense has been fantastic against the run thus far and will face a one-dimensional SDSU offense that's all about the run.  The NIU defense ranks 19th against the run allowing just 98 yards rushing per game and they're 26th in total yards allowed.  Now the second half of the scheduling advantage.  The Aztecs are off three straight physically and emotionally tough football games, beating Arizona State, Stanford, and Air Force, winning the last two games on the final score of the game.  SDSU got by Stanford, scoring the game winning TD with less than 10 seconds to go, and they beat AFA with a 53-yard TD run with just over 5 minutes to go.  We had SDSU last week, but we'll go against them here.  NIU wouldn't mind exacting a little revenge for last year's 42-28 loss.  This Huskies' version is much better than the one that started 1-6 SU last season, including the loss to the Aztecs.  NIU is a true road warrior, currently on a 24-7-2 ATS run on the road.  They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record.  I'm grabbing the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker of the Month. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Coastal Carolina on Saturday.  CC did not fare too well last weekend in a loss to FCS Western Illinois.  But WIU is an undefeated top-20 ranked FCS team and Coastal was no doubt looking ahead to this week, their first Sun Belt contest. We are not only getting an over-adjustment on the spread, but the UL-Monroe defense is coming off an OT win against their rival, UL-Lafayette, where the defense was on the field for 90 plays.  UL-M allowed 231 yards on 49 carries and head into this one ranked 124th against the run, allowing 278 yards rushing per game.  Guess what Coastal Carolina does best?  Yes, run the football.  Coastal ranks 21st in the nation, averaging nearly 240 yards rushing per game.  They'll take their shots lining up and pounding the football at an already weary Warhawks' defense.  UL-M has covered just 7 of their last 26 home games.  This marks the first time since October 15, 2016, that UL-M has been installed as a favorite, losing outright, 40-34 as 10-point home chalk to Texas State.  In fact, the Warhawks have been home chalk just three times since October 25, 2014 and they lost all three outright.  I'm taking the points with Coastal Carolina, our Road Warrior on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Saturday.  The Falcons are off to a 0-4 start, but this line has been over-adjusted, more than accounting for the slow start.  BG should be the favorite in this game and it's why we saw some underdog money midweek.  Akron is 1-3 SU and both teams have faced tough opposition.  But we feel BG will be getting "just what the doctor ordered," facing a Zips' team ranked 107th in total yards per game on offense, and 102nd in total yards allowed.  The Falcons numbers aren't pretty either, but we like the matchups in this head-to-head clash.  And while the Zips are 1-8 ATS as road chalk of 3 or less, the Falcons are on a 6-0 ATS run off two consecutive double digit road losses and they're on a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS run in this series.  I'm backing Bowling Green plus the points, our Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  Cluster injuries to any position will make life tougher on the rest of a football team, but when the cluster injuries occur at the QB position the term takes on a whole new meaning.  We saw what losing their top two QBs meant to Maryland last week when the Terps were throttled by Central Florida.  Maryland expects to start Max Bortenschlager with the team's other three QBs sidelined by injury.  The young QB certainly struggled last week. I expect Maryland to attempt to get the ground game in gear, but they ran for only 42 yards on 37 carries with the passing game a non-factor.  The Terps defense allowed UCF 250 yards rushing on 6.4 yards per carry.  P.J. Fleck and his Golden Gophers must be champing at the bit.  Minnesota ranks #1 against the run and in ppg allowed and #5 in total yards allowed.  They're outstanding on the ground and are all about owning time of possession.  The Gophers own the ground game to milk the clock in the final quarter after building a lead.  Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the game, so adjusting to defending the new QB will not be an issue.  The Terps have covered just one of their last seven road games and one of their last six against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, P.J. Fleck-coached teams are fast starters, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 September games.  I'm laying the points with Minnesota, our Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with USC on Friday night.  The Trojans are battle tested, while Washington State has had a pretty easy early season slate.  But the scary part for Cougar fans in this one is the fact their offensive line is allowing way too many sacks, and will face a Trojan defense that has been in the opposing backfield on a regular basis. USC has 11 sacks on the season, while Wazzu allowed 5 sacks to Boise alone, and 14 sacks on the season, overall. USC also owns a top shelf pass efficiency secondary and we do believe that combined with the pass rush, Luke Falk will be forced into a couple of mistakes.  Offensively, the best player on the field is USC QB Sam Darnold and the USC passing game is averaging over 306 yards per game without excluding the running game, which keeps defenses honest.  The Trojans enter on a 6-1 ATS run within the conference, while Washington State has dropped 5 in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We're laying the points with USC, our Friday beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cardinals on Monday night.  Dallas is looking to atone for last week's debacle in Denver, but this wasn't a sudden drop-off in offensive output.  The Cowboys have scored 19 or fewer points in five of their last seven regular season games. Teams have figured out how to slow down Dallas, it's just a matter of execution. Load up against the run and make QB Dak Prescott beat you with his arm.  One Denver defender even said they knew if they could stop the run Prescott wouldn't be able to beat them.  Because of this, Dallas is 24th in the league in yards rushing per game.  Arizona is 8th against the run.  The Cowboys have lost four straight ATS on the road. Meanwhile, Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of seven points or less and 6-0 as a home dog of three points or less.  We believe the Cardinals have the talent in place to control this contest and we'll grab the points.  Arizona is our MNF Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the LA Chargers on Sunday.  The KC Chiefs simply don't fit the mode of a team that wins more than 8 or 9 games, but here they are at 2-0.  KC has been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL the last two seasons, including garnering a league-best 30 takeaways going into this season.  They've also hovered around the top of the list in non-offensive touchdowns.  KC led New England 28-27 in week-1 with the Patriots driving, possessing the football near the KC 40. New England was stopped on downs and a few mistakes later and they fell victim. Last weekend, the Chiefs were out-gained by 62 yards, but beat the Eagles, 27-20. We feel the good fortune catches up this week against a Chargers' team that's two missed FGs away from a potential 2-0 record, themselves.  The talent is in place for Philip Rivers to lead his team to a decent season, but they need to stop the bleeding here.  LAC normally starts well, currently on an 11-4-2 ATS September run despite this year's 0-1-1 ATS start.  We'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with the Chargers on Sunday, our AFC West Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Not an easy trip for Denver.  The Broncos are off the big win over Dallas, blowing out the Cowboys. They hung on against AFC West rival the LA Chargers in week-1, and the Broncos have a home date with another AFC West opponent next week when the Oakland Raiders roll into Denver.  The Broncos can be forgiven if their heads aren't completely focused on the Bills.  Buffalo can run the football and they have been outstanding on defense thus far, holding their first two opponents to a grand total of 21 points.  The Bills are second in the NFL in total yards allowed, equally strong against the pass and the run.  We believe they'll slow down the Denver ground game and force Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, something he hasn't had to do yet.  Buffalo is on a 15-7 SU & 14-8 ATS run at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB. The Bills have covered four straight meetings with Denver.  We're backing the Buffalo Bills plus the points, our DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the NY Giants on Sunday.  The G-Men have played a decent brand of defense in weeks one and two and we expect a solid outing here. In fact, we expect a better job at slowing the run.  The Eagles have some offensive line issues in this matchup. They're also banged-up on defense, especially hurting their depth at safety and corner.  As far as the Giants are concerned, dropped passes and the play of OLT Ereck Flowers have hurt the offense.  But the Giants are addressing the issue and will give Flowers more help in pass blocking.  I expect the best game of the season from the passing game now that ODB is healthier and Brandon Marshall steps up his game after a bad drop against the Lions that could have tied the game in the second half. Despite the issues, Eli Manning has completed 73% of his passes thus far. We note that the Giants are 10-2 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in two straight games and 4-0 ATS the last three seasons when rushing for 75 or fewer yards in two straight.  And best of all is the line adjustment in our favor.  If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would have been a one-point favorite, according to my contact at CGT books in Las Vegas.  The Giants are 11-3-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and we like that trend to continue in a positive direction.  I'm taking the points with the NY Giants, our Shocker.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  This one is all about line value with our Power Ratings a solid 5 points off the number.  Oregon is riding a hot streak, but all of a sudden the 42-35 win against struggling Nebraska doesn't look so hot, while winning at Wyoming means not nearly as much with the Cowboys obviously overvalued before the season kicked off. ASU is just 1-2 SU, but the three teams they've played have a combined record of 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS.  And while losing to San Diego State felt bad for Sun Devil backers two weeks ago, that loss doesn't look too bad after watching the Aztecs knock off Stanford last week.  Arizona State has the firepower as far as the aerial game is concerned and we believe they will give Oregon's pass defense problems.  The Ducks have covered just 2 of their last 10 Pac-12 games, while Arizona State is on an 8-3 ATS run at home.  We'll trust our numbers and grab the points with Arizona State, our DogPound Crusher. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction and easy thing to do would be to back Air Force, believing the Aztecs are in for a letdown off the win over Stanford. We don't subscribe to a letdown under HC Rocky Long and we also believe part of the perception has been baked into this line.  The Falcons hung around at the Big House last week before losing 29-13 to Michigan.  The Air Force offense did next to nothing, especially in the passing game completing just 1 of 9 passes.  AFA is one dimensional, a likely problem against a SDSU defense holding opponents to 91 yards rushing per game.  SDSU held Stanford to 238 total yards just one week after holding Arizona State to 1.3 yards per carry on 31 attempts.  Rocky Long and his defensive staff know the AFA attack as well as anyone and we're betting there will be no letdown. We also expect SDSU's 21st ranked ground game will find holes against AFA's defense.  The Aztecs are on a 15-5-1 ATS conference run, while Air Force has covered just one of their last seven conference games.  And finally, SDSU has covered six of the last seven meetings.  We're laying the points with San Diego State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon.  Wake Forest is off to a great start, but this is a very tough situation, taking on an upset minded Mountaineers' team right before facing Florida State.  App State was a bit of a public dog when they faced Georgia in their first game of the season, but couldn't overcome the difference in pedigree, not to mention, UGA owns a very good team in 2017.  The ASU defense didn't play badly, holding Georgia to 368 total yards and just 11 of 20 passing.  Wake owns a good ground game, but the passing game is mediocre and will have issues against the ASU defense.  Bottom line:  The public jumped ship when ASU failed them ATS in their opener against UGA and we're now getting solid value with the home underdog that I had favored in this one before the season began.  This is an over-adjustment in our eyes and we'll grab the points with Appalachian State, our Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Miami-Ohio on Saturday afternoon.  Miami-Oh blew one last week. The Redhawks led Cincinnati 17-6 with less than five minutes to go in the game before falling apart, including giving up a pick-6 for the loss with about 90 seconds left in the contest.  Miami HC Chuck Martin called it one of the worst losses in his career.  But the team has reportedly responded like they have a chip on their shoulder for this week's game at Central Michigan (we waited to find out before posting).  The Chips are down a bit this season, escaping Rhode Island with a 30-27 OT win as a 5 TD favorite.  They beat pathetic Kansas, then got whipped 41-17 by Syracuse. Central Michigan is fairly one-dimensional on offense, not much of a running game.  The Chips are horrible on defense, ranked 117th in total yards allowed per game, equally bad against the run and pass, while playing against soft opposition.  I expect the CMU defense o be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Miami offense.  The Redhawks have covered 6 of their last 7 against teams that allow at least 4.75 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, CMU has covered just 3 of their last 13 games, overall.  Miami won last year's meeting 37-17, out-gaining the Chips by nearly 150 yards.  I expect more of the same on Saturday.  I'm backing Miami-Ohio, our Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday.  The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a tough spot, off a fortunate win over Miami-Oh in an in-state clash. Cincy trailed Miami, 17-6 with less than 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before a Miami meltdown allowed the Bearcats to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  Cincinnati scored the game winning TD on a pick-6 with 1:40 to go in the game.  It was obviously a huge win for the Bearcats and now they must gear-up for an offense they don't see. With UC and Navy playing in different divisions, this marks the first time the teams have met since the AAC was formed. Tough to get ready for an option you have never seen.  Navy was off last week after beating Tulane, 23-21 two weeks ago (we won with Tulane plus points). But it marked the 5th time Tulane had faced an option in three years, including having seen Navy.  And we should note Cincy ranks 88th against the run.  Meanwhile, the Cincy offense ranks 111th through the air, 113th on the ground and 124th in total yards per game.  The Middies are on a 14-4 ATS run at home and they start well, currently on a 6-1 ATS September run the last 2+ years.  I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday, our Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Idaho on Saturday afternoon.  We went against Idaho and cashed with UNLV a few weeks ago because the Rebels were undervalued after losing to Howard.  Idaho has now lost two straight and the Vandals are the undervalued team heading to Mobile to face South Alabama.  Idaho covered last week in a 37-28 loss to Western Michigan in a game the Sun Belt entry led 28-19 early in the fourth quarter.  The defense was outstanding as was the Idaho ground game (5 yards per carry) as they out-gained WMU.  I believe the solid play carries over to this conference tilt.  South Alabama allowed 91 points to their first two opponents before a meaningless 45-0 win over Alabama A&M last time out.  USA is averaging just 320 total yards per game and rank 101st on the ground.  The passing game has struggled too with QB Cole Garvin nursing an injured ankle (questionable).  Idaho isn't on par with USA's first two opponents, but they were good enough to nearly win on the road against Western Michigan and they are the better team in this matchup.  Idaho has covered seven straight conference games, while South Alabama is on a 4-17 ATS Sun Belt slide.  We'll back Idaho plus the points, our Hammer on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers on Thursday night.  The Rams opened the season well with a win over the rudderless Colts who were playing their first game of the season without Andrew Luck, and even worse, with Scott Tolzien behind center.  Things didn't go so well last week for the Rams when their run defense was torched for 229 yards on 5.8 yards per carry by the Redskins.  We do believe SFO will be able to run the football after watching Carlos Hyde have his way with the tougher Seattle defense.  Hyde ran for 124 yards on 15 carries.  In fact, if SFO receivers hung onto the football, the Niners likely enter this one off a win over Seattle. Instead, SFO has scored just 12 points on four FGs in two games.  But NFL teams are on a 34-11 ATS run if they scored less than 10 points in back-to-back games, averaging 24 ppg in those 45 contests.  SFO is also on a 4-0 ATS run within the NFC West, while the Rams enter on a 1-8 ATS slide in their last nine games after last week's loss.  I'm backing the Niners in a spot where I believe they'll find success on the ground. SFO plus the points is our Thursday Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins, our DogPound Crusher.  The Dolphins were off last week due to Hurricane Irma, but they handled it as well as a team could spending quite a bit of time on the west coast, now acclimated to their situation.  They practiced all week in Los Angels and Oxnard and should be fresh but ready to go.  We expect Jay Cutler to play like he did the last time he was under the tutelage of Adam Gase, which turned out to be his finest season as a pro. We also expect the Dolphins' offense to be able to control the game just like Denver did on Monday night.  The Chargers open their new soccer digs, but covered just 5 of their last 21 home games before this season.  They're also on a 0-5-1 ATS slide in their last six games.  I'm taking the points with the Dolphins, our week-2 DogPound.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Sunday.  Tampa Bay had last week's game postponed and had to deal with a lot of off the field issues due to Hurricane Irma.  But the main reason we're playing the other side in this one is because we aren't as enamored with the Buccaneers' offense as most.  Jameis Winston threw 33 INTs over the last two seasons and his turnover-worthy-throws keep him far from the top starting QBs in the league according to PFF.  The starting offense was stuck in neutral this preseason, the offensive line is mediocre at best, and Winston won't have RB Doug Martin, who is serving a suspension.  John Fox has revamped his secondary and we believe they'll matchup very well with the Buccs' offense.  Fox-coached teams are on a 10-2 ATS run on the road after allowing at least 300 yards passing in their previous game, the situation here. Offensively, the Bears will play ball control, running behind a stout offensive line, taking pressure off the passing game.  Chicago's also on a 6-2 ATS run overall, while Tampa has been a slow starter, covering just 3 of their last 12 September games.  I'm taking the points with the Bears, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Steelers on Sunday.  Pittsburgh was a little rusty on offense last week and it was no surprise as Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant finally got on the field with Big Ben.  I expect the offense to be in gear against Minnesota.  While the Vikings were the better team in their MNF win over New Orleans, let's also remember they allowed four drives of 73 yards or more and four drives of a dozen plays or more to an offense without Brandon Cooks (Patriots) and without Willie Snead (suspension), while playing with a rookie at OLT.  Meanwhile, the fierce Steeler defense will face a banged-up QB in Sam Bradford, who is suffering from knee issues heading into Sunday. Minnesota has covered just one of their last six road games and we'll back the chalk here.  I'm laying the points with the Steelers, our Best Bet KO.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday night.  Revenge is an overused term in sports betting, but we do believe Louisville is going to gain a measure of it tonight. The Cardinals came within a few yards of possibly beating the Deshaun Watson-led Tigers in a 42-36 loss last season. Clemson's defense was very good last season, overall, and can be dominant again, (ask Auburn), but just like last year, Jackson is the great equalizer. New Clemson QB Kelly Bryant is a heady signal caller, but he's no Watson, at least not yet, and we don't think his offense will be able to overcome Louisville's.  The best thing we like about Louisville this season is Lamar Jackson's accuracy.  The Heisman winner is connecting on 65% of his passes, about 10 percentage points higher than last year.  We note that home teams with a returning starting QB are on a 54-27 ATS run if they're off a season where they averaged at least 200 yards rushing per game and their opponent has a new starting QB.  We also note that under HC Dabo Swiney, Clemson is just 1-8 ATS as road chalk of seven or less, outscored by an average of 26-20.  We're taking the points with Louisville, our Smackdown on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kentucky on Saturday.  South Carolina is 2-0, but it's not due to great play on either side of the line of scrimmage.  The defense has given up an average of 330 yards passing per game and 463.5 total yards per game and the offense is barely topping 300 yards per contest, unable to run or pass the football with consistent success.  SC was outgained by 258 yards in their 35-28 win over NC State, rushing for 31 yards on 21 carries.  And they were outgained by 64 yards in last week's win over Missouri.  They do own a +4 turnover margin and have a couple of special teams TDs.  Kentucky's run defense should win the battle up front, turning SC into a one-dimensional offense and that's a major advantage for the Wildcats.  Kentucky is on a 6-1 ATS run in SEC action and have covered four straight meetings.  I'm taking the points with Kentucky, our Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Saturday.  Just about everybody who's anybody is back for K-State this season and QB Jesse Ertz is getting it done through the air, while also keeping defenses honest with his feet and ability to escape pressure.  Ertz is averaging nearly 14 yards per pass attempt, while connecting on 70.3% of his passes. Both teams are stepping up in class of opponent this week, but we believe the 'Cats will be more capable of handling it.  Vandy would like to grind it out a bit, but they ran for 2.2 yards per carry against MSTU in opening week action. They had to rely on arm of QB Kyle Shurmur, who has yet to fave any pressure.  That changes this week. We expect the K-State defense to hold the Vandy offense in check, while the Wildcat offense does the rest.  K-State averages 5.9 yards per carry, while Vandy averages just 3.5. We note that CFB teams averaging at least 4.8 yards per carry are on a 32-9 ATS run if they out-rushed their previous opponent by at least 125 yards and are facing a team that runs for 3 to 3.5 yards per carry.  Both teams fit the bill and K-State out-rushed Charlotte by nearly 200 yards last week.  The 'Cats also react well on the road off two straight home games, covering 15 of the last 20.  I'm laying the points with Kansas State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulsa on Saturday.  There ought to be a few points in this one with these two offenses going at it, but one of the differences -- Tulsa has already faced Oklahoma State. Toledo will not be the stiffest test the Golden Hurricane have had so far this season.  But Tulsa will be a step-up in class for the Rockets.  Toledo allowed Nevada 4.5 yards per carry last time out and we feel the defense will have a rough time with the prolific Tulsa ground game that even gained 244 yards against the Cowboys in week-one.  Tulsa has averaged nearly 45 ppg over the last dozen games.  They're a tough "out," having covered 12 of their last 15 on the road and Tulsa is taking aim at their 7th straight cover against teams with a winning record.  Toledo remains overvalued at home where they have dropped four in a row ATS.  I'm taking the points with Tulsa, our Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  This reminds me a little of MTSU's first game of the season when Vanderbilt really took it to them in a 28-6 Commodores win.  We said on our ESPN radio show that Vandy would power through the Blue Raiders and they did. Vandy out-gained MTSU 372-240 and held Brent Stockstill to 18 of 31 passing for 166 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  The Golden Gophers were a little sluggish in week-one, P.J. Fleck's first game as HC, ending in a win over Buffalo.  But Minnesota found their rhythm last weekend in a 48-14 pounding at Oregon State. When Fleck-coached teams find their rhythm they are dangerous, covering 14 of the last 18 after out-gaining their previous opponent by at least 125 yards.  Gopher QB Demry Croft is a bit banged-up, but it doesn't matter because Fleck had settled on Conor Rhoda, who has completed more than 65% of his passes this season, while averaging over 11 yards per attempt. Rhoda doesn't throw the ball often, but he will stretch the MTSU defense, allowing running lanes to open up for the Gopher ground game.  MTSU could also be hamstrung with QB Stockstill listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. MTSU is just 2-6-1 ATS off a SU win and we'll go against them here.  I'm laying the points with Minnesota, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the LA Chargers on Monday night.  We like the way the Chargers' offensive line matches up against the battered and bruised Denver defensive front.  LAC will test deep waters at times in this one, but it's no secret the Chargers want to establish the run and the use of TE Hunter Henry.  We feel they have the advantage in both with LB Brandon Marshall struggling last season in yards allowed after contact, ranked 51st out of 60 qualified LBs in run-stop percentage, as reported.  We also note that Henry should create major problems for Denver over the middle. LAC also has an advantage when Denver has possession of the football.  We especially like the Chargers front-line matched-up against Denver rookie OLT Garett Bolles, who has major potential, but we expect to be a liability for the Broncos tonight.  We believe the Bolts have the edge on both sides of the line of scrimmage and they have been at their money-making best in the situations they're in tonight.  LAC have covered five straight week-one games and they're on a 10-4 ATS run on the road.  Speaking of the road, the visiting team in this series is 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 meetings.  We're backing the Chargers, our MNF Showdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday.  The Raiders are once again one of the hottest tickets in Las Vegas sports books as the public cannot get enough of them.  However, Tennessee is one of the teams on our most improved list.  Tennessee won eight of their final 12 games last season, including wins over the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers and they've suffered 11 defeats by eight points or less over the last two seasons, coming close to a postseason berth with last year's 9-7 SU mark.  The offensive line has been bolstered in the off-season, while the defense gains needed talent and experience in the secondary with Logan Ryan and Johnathan Cyprien signing on. Offensively, QB Marcus Mariota already owned protection and a decent ground game and the WR corps just got more diverse and deeper with the selection of Corey Davis with the 5th pick in the 2017 draft.  Oakland is a squad that could challenge in the AFC this season, but we feel they're overvalued from a betting standpoint and their leaky defense will be exploited in week-one. I'm laying the points with the Titans on Sunday, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.  While the Cardinals disappointed last year and finished below .500, it wasn't much of a debate that they were actually a better team than the Lions.  Detroit made the postseason, but finished with a negative points differential, while Arizona averaged 3.5 ppg more than they allowed. Arizona is healthy on both sides of the line for this one, while the Lions' defense is an absolute mess with six players ruled out due to injuries and suspensions. The biggest loss is DE Kerry Hyder.  The Lions also lost OT Taylor Decker, who was expected to be a key cog up front.  The Cards have been "money" in the early going of late, covering six of their last eight September games.  Detroit enters on a 5-game ATS losing streak. These teams met four straight years from 2012 through 2015 and while some names have changed, the Cardinals won and covered all four, including a 42-17 win in Detroit two seasons ago.  We're betting Arizona makes it five straight. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my week-1 Smackdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn, our CFB Hammer.  The Auburn Tigers gave the Deshaun Watson-led Clemson offense to 19 points in last season's hard-fought 19-13 Clemson win.  New Clemson QB Kelly Bryant led his team to an easy win last week over Kent State, but Auburn HC Gus Malzahn owns the defensive talent to once again stand-up to the Clemson attack that's shy of where it was last year under Watson.  New Auburn QB Jason Stidham (Baylor transfer) got a chance to shake off the rust last week in a 41-7 win over Georgia Southern.  Stidham played well for the most part and the offense rolled-up 535 yards on 6.8 yards per play.  All that offense in week-1 for both teams, but we expect the Auburn defense to slow the Clemson attack for the second straight season.  Auburn owns serious depth at the skill positions, so missing a RB is not tough to overcome. Auburn has been "money," entering on a 10-4-1 ATS run in their last 15 games. We'll back them here.  We're taking the points with Auburn, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with TCU on Saturday.  The legit line in Nevada opened TCU -2.5.  Off-shore books opened TCU as much as a 2 1/2 point underdog. Bad line!  TCU lost to Arkansas in double-OT last season, despite out-gaining the Hogs 572-403.  TCU RB Kyle Hicks may not play, but the offense is superior to Arkansas' attack and the Razorbacks' defense had no answer for Frogs' QB Kenny Hill, who threw for 377 yards on 36 of 56 passing, while running for 93 yards in last year's meeting.  In fact, they had no answer for most teams on their schedule, allowing an FBS-worst 39 rushing TDs.  Arkansas also allowed almost 260 yards rushing per game in SEC play and the defense is even younger this season.  The fact TCU is better up front on defense than when these teams met last year will be the difference in the contest.  Arkansas QB Austin Allen played poorly down the stretch in 2016 with 7 TD passes and 9 INTs and we saw another pick last week with just one TD in a win over an out-manned Florida A&M team.  Arkansas is 0-6 ATS off a SU win and they have covered just one of their last five, overall.  We'll lay it with TCU, our Revenge GOM. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Indiana on Saturday afternoon.  We saw the Hoosiers give the heavily favored Buckeyes all they could handle for a good portion of the game.  The contest was definitely closer than the final score would indicate.  The job should get a bit easier for the defense this week, facing an offensive line that couldn't generate a running game in last year's debacle of a season. The Cavaliers have a couple of talented WR's, but pass-blocking is going to be a negative. Meanwhile, Indiana should have little trouble throwing downfield against a weak secondary.  The Cavaliers have dropped five straight games ATS, while when Indiana gets hot they have stayed so of late, currently on a 5-1 ATS run after throwing for more than 280 yards in their previous game. I'm laying the points with Indiana, our Best Bet KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulane over Navy on Saturday.  Willie Fritz employs his own version of triple-option offense at Tulane.  But the Green Wave spent more than one week prepping for what they'll attempt to defend on Saturday. In fact, Fritz had his defensive coaches spend time this summer coaching-up the defense specifically for this opponent. Tulane has also has the experience of facing Navy in each of the last two seasons, along with games against Georgia Tech and Air Force two seasons ago.  They're about as familiar with defending option football as any team in the nation.  Last year, I had Tulane's offense graded lower than this year's version, yet the Green Wave ran for 5.1 yards per carry against Navy and even led the game, 14-13 with less than three minutes to go, before Navy pulled out the 21-14 win.  Junior QB Jonathan Banks, a Kansas State transfer has the ability to run the football 20 times, while completing a decent rate of passes.  But again, the fact Tulane's defense will see Navy for the third straight season and an option attack for the 5th time in three seasons gives them a huge advantage.  I believe we're in for a close one for the second straight season, allowing Tulane to hang the number.  I'm taking the points with Tulane, our Road Warrior on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arkansas State on Saturday.  The Huskers are entering yet another new era, so to speak.  They have revamped their defense, hiring former UConn coach Bob Diaco, who has installed a 3-4 base defense.  But the offensive line could very well have issues both pass blocking and run blocking in this one.  Nebraska has some new parts up front and will look to protect a more pass-oriented QB in Tanner Lee.  We are not yet sold on the Tulane-transfer when it comes to running this offense.  Arkansas State expects to be tough in the front-six on defense and should hold the Huskers in-check.  We don't believe Nebraska will be ready to attack the young ASU secondary.  While the ASU offense left something to be desired last year, HC Blake Anderson has gotten more involved with this year's offensive attack. Arkansas State has grown used to going bowling in recent years and won't be intimidated by a program that stopped intimidating teams years ago.  Nebraska dropped four of their final six games last year and covered just three of their final nine games.  They also have a date with Oregon in Eugene next week and if Diaco's defense and even the Lee-led offense can get by ASU without revealing too much, they certainly will. ASU enters on a 7-2 ATS run, while Nebraska is just 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 as home chalk.  They covered each of their first two home games last season against Fresno State & Wyoming, but the wide-margin final scores were quite misleading as was their very fortunate home win (push) over Oregon in week-3. This one is tougher than expected for the home team and we're grabbing the points with Arkansas State, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Big-time revenge for the 'Cats for one of the uglier losses of 2016.  Kentucky jumped out to a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to go in the first half, before Southern Miss scored 34 straight points, winning 44-35 as a 3 1/2 point underdog. We remember it well, because we were on Southern Miss.  But the Golden Eagles are breaking in a new QB and have seven new starters on defense.  Nick Mullens is gone and the Eagles are left with a pair of underwhelming signal callers. So Miss is also replacing three starters on the offensive line, two of which are underclassmen.  Two of the seven starters lost on defense included their leading tackler and best pass rusher. Look for a confident and run-heavy Kentucky offense to push So Miss around on Saturday with arguably the best offensive line in the SEC East paving the road.  The ground game should lead to strong production from the aerial game behind dual-threat QB Stephen Jonson and a group of talented WR's who'll be tough covers for the So Miss secondary.  The 'Cats covered each of their last four road games, while the Golden Eagles are on a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home.  I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Troy over Boise State on Saturday afternoon.  The Trojans will line-up against a Bronco defense that will attempt to be more aggressive this season, but I just don't believe they have the parts to make great leaps and bounds.  INT's by the Bronco secondary were non-existent last season and while they'll likely load-up to slow the Trojan run early-on in this one, Troy has the weaponry in the passing game to make them pay, and eventually play an honest brand of defense.  Troy QB Brandon Silvers leads a fast-paced attack with a strong receiving corps that will have Boise on their heels.  Offensively, I don't believe BSU can pull away.  They're good on the offensive side of the football, but won't be able to shake the Trojans. BSU enters on a 0-9 ATS slide at home. Meanwhile, Troy enters on a 5-1 ATS September run and they have covered 9 of their last 12 on the road.  For what it's worth, Boise was having a tough time generating interest and ticket sales for their opener as recently as early this week.  Normal home value may not be there for this one, which is not a reason to fade Boise, but an interesting note.  I'm grabbing the points with Troy, our Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Friday night.  We certainly like teams playing a second game over one that's playing their first of the season when the programs are relatively close.  We saw CSU's offense kick into high gear in the second half of their 58-27 win over Oregon State. They were able to work out first game kinks. Colorado overachieved last season and while the offense has a lot of familiar faces, they do have a new starting QB with Sefo Liufao's departure.  Defense is where this team will be hurt the most.  CU has to replace one of the best DC's in college football with Jim Leavitt's departure, taking three assistants with him.  Making matters even worse, the Buffs have eight new starters to break in.  The defense will be tested all night long by the Rams' offensive attack.  CSU has been a money-maker, on a 35-17-1 ATS run in their last 53 games.  They're on a 14-3 ATS run after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  I expect Colorado State to snap their two-game head to head losing streak, covering at the very least.  I'm taking the points with Colorado State, my DogPound on Friday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Main Event on Sunday.  Casual NFL fans point to an improved defense when they talk about Pittsburgh's chances this weekend, but I'm not buying. The Steelers aren't bad, obviously.  But twice each this season the defense faced the Browns, Ravens, and Bengals, while also facing the Giants & Jets on one occasion each. That's eight games against teams that ranked 21st to 31st in scoring.  The Steelers allowed 27 in a regular season loss to the Patriots and 30 points in a loss at Miami with a healthy Ryan Tannehill at QB.  The playoff rematch came against Matt Moore.  And a game against Indy is misleading, because the Colts were forced to use Tolzien & McAfee at QB with Andrew Luck sidelined.  I expect the Patriot offense to attack the Steeler defense, topping 30 points. Eventually, I don't believe the Steelers will be able to keep up. The Pats enter on a 14-3 ATS winning run and they're on a 25-9-2 ATS run at home where they've won 33 of their last 37 outright.  Finally, New England is 7-1 ATS this season against teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play. Pittsburgh fits the bill.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the KC Chiefs, my Knockout on Sunday.  Pittsburgh got "just what the doctor ordered," in the wildcard round last weekend.  They took on a Dolphins' team with a backup QB and injuries to the secondary, including Byron Maxwell.  But this is certainly not an ideal situation. The Steelers roll into Arrowhead with some bumps & bruises of their own, including Ben Roethlisberger, who's ankle is and could be an issue.  Pittsburgh has been a little shaky on the road this season, losing to Baltimore, Miami, and Philadelphia, including 15 point and 31 point losses to the Dolphins & Eagles. Four of their road wins came against the Browns, the Colts (without Andrew Luck), the Bills, and the Bengals.  KC has won six of eight at home this season and are on a 5-1 ATS run, overall.  The Chiefs lost to Pittsburgh in blowout fashion in early October, but caught the Steelers off a 34-3 loss to Philly, their worst loss in 27 years.  KC is more dangerous now, able to throw downfield better than in recent years.  And we have an Andy Reid-coached team off a bye, where he's 19-2 SU.  His teams are 16-6 ATS in all games he's coached following a bye week, winning by an average margin of 10 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have covered just 14 of 38 road games off a home win under Mike Tomlin.  I'm backing the KC Chiefs, my NFL Knockout.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Atlanta Falcons, my Main Event on Saturday. Too much offense for the Seahawks to handle without Earl Thomas in the defensive backfield.  We also have Matt Ryan and his strong home TD-INT ratio of 19 scores and only 4 picks, while Russell Wilson has not fared quite so well through the air on the road, with as many INTs as TD passes (8).  In fact, Wilson has just 2 TD passes with 7 INTs in his last three road games.  We also have a situation where ATL HC Dan Quinn knows quite a bit about defending the Seahawk offense.  Quinn was the assistant HC & defensive line coach for Pete Carroll in 2009-2010 and returned as Seattle's defensive coordinator in 2013-2014 before taking the job in Atlanta.  Seattle ranks just 25th in yards rushing per game, the offensive line has had issues, and I expect a tough outing for the Seattle offense, overall.  I also expect this game to be about the Falcon offense, one of the best in the NFL, taking it to the Seattle defense.  ATL OC Kyle Shanahan will allow Matt Ryan to take advantage of the less than 100% Seahawk defensive backfield.  Seattle beat Atlanta 26-24 in October, but the Seahawks were at home off a bye, while the Falcons were off a road win in Denver.  We note the Falcons out-gained Seattle by 50 yards and led by seven with 5 minutes to go in the game, but ultimately couldn't overcome a minus-2 turnover ratio.  I'm betting ATL gets their revenge by a spread covering margin.  I'm laying the points with the Falcons, my Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday.  We know about Eli Manning's success in Green Bay and the fact the Giants' secondary has been the strength of the team.  But Aaron Rodgers is on fire, not simply because he's found another gear, but because it took until after the midway point of the season for Jordy Nelson to finally overcome last year's injury and the Pack found a running game, thanks mainly due to Ty Montgomery.  I do believe the Packer offense will end up being too much for the Giants to match.  This is also the Giants third straight road game and the offense has been held in-check virtually all season, but especially in their last five games.  I know about the Giants' playoff road success, but that's stuff that happened a few years ago.  Most recently, this team is 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record.  The Pack is on a 4-0 wildcard spread run and they're on a 5-1 ATS run, overall. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday.  Connor Cook gets his first NFL start when the Oakland Raiders take the field on Saturday.  While we like Cook's upside, this is simply too tall a task in our opinion.  When Derek Carr was healthy, his leadership and ability, combined with Oakland's offensive weaponry was so strong, it masked all the issues on defense. The mask is off, however, and the Raider defensive woes have been revealed.  Houston's defense is a tough nut to crack, ranked 2nd in defending the pass and #1 in the NFL, holding opponents to 301 total yards per game.  And let's not fail to mention Houston is 7-1 SU at home this season.  Brock Osweiler has been a disappointment in Houston, but he and the offense get "just what the doctor ordered" when they face the permissive Raider defense.  The Texans are on a 14-5 ATS run when laying points under HC O'Brien.  Oakland won the meeting in November, 27-20.  But we believe the Texans will win the important meeting on Saturday.  I'm laying the points with the Texans, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn, my Bowl Smash on Monday.  The Sooners closed with a blowout win over Oklahoma State, however, Stoops' troops fell short of where they'd hoped to be thanks to ugly losses to Houston & Ohio State.  OU enters on a nine-game winning streak, covering the final three.  Auburn finished 12 points from a 10-2 season and own the play in the trenches that gives the Sooners' defense fits.  Auburn has been a solid bowl entry under Malzahn, losing to Florida State & Wisconsin by identical 34-31 scores, while beating Memphis 31-10 as a 3-point fave last season.  Stoops' Sooners have won just five of their last 13 bowls, (4-9 ATS), including 3-5 SU / 2-6 ATS when favored.  We'll grab the points with Auburn, our Monday Bowl Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. No Derek Carr for the Raiders, so Matt McGloin will line-up behind center. The good news for the Raiders is that McGloin will still have the terrific offensive line, strong RBs, and outstanding WR corps to work with, that doesn't change a bit.  I do believe the troops will rally and pick up the slack for their injured signal caller.  The Raiders ran all over the Broncos in their 30-20 win in early November and this Bronco defense is suffering from numerous bumps & bruises.  Oakland still has a lot to play for with the AFC West title on the line and we feel they'll come away with the division crown in-hand.  Oakland enters on a 9-1 ATS road run, while Denver is on a 1-6 ATS slide within the division.  Finally, the Raiders are on a 7-2-1 ATS run in Denver.  I'm backing the Oakland Raiders, my KO on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Clemson on Saturday.  Ohio State struggled up front on offense against the better defenses on their schedule.  At times, J.T. Barrett was unfairly criticized when you consider he was under pressure.  Clemson has been outstanding at getting to the QB, posting a sack net of more than +20 on the season.  I do expect the battle in the trenches to be won by Clemson and prove to be the difference in the outcome.  We note the Tigers are 8-0 ATS away from home against teams that outscore the opposition by at least 17 ppg.  While this isn't a true road game, we get the picture.  Swiney's Tigers outscored the eight opponents by an average of 38-29. They're also 9-2 ATS against pass defenses that hold the opposition to no more than 5.75 yards per attempt, able to dissect and solve solid pass defenses.  And finally, they know how to prep for bowl action, on a 5-0 ATS bowl run.  I'm grabbing the points with Clemson, my Playoff Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Florida State, my Bowl Smash.  The Seminoles had bigger hopes before the season began as did Michigan.  But Jimbo Fisher's squad knew they were out of the mix long before the Wolverines had their hopes dashed.  Florida State was a very young football team when the season began, but are now a seasoned crew.  We do believe the ultra-quick FSU defense will be tough on the Michigan offense.  It's extremely tough to run on the Seminoles and the Michigan pass offense is on the wrong side of mediocre.  The Wolverines did not finish well on offense, gaining just 201, 284, and 310 yards in their final three games of the season, averaging just 3.86 yards per play.  I do believe the FSU defense will prove to be the difference in the game, at least hanging the number.  Florida State enters on an 8-2-1 ATS bowl run and they're on a 5-1 ATS run outside of conference play.  I'm grabbing the points with Florida State on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with South Alabama, my Bowl GOY.  The young Jaguar program is pumped to be here, obviously, and no one expected this year's Jags to go bowling before the season began.  In fact, South Alabama won six games, which doubled their preseason projected win total. But they've dropped five straight games ATS and covered just three of 12 games this season. Thanks to perception and typical public betting in games that involve a team like South Alabama, we tend to get value on that team.  We believe this is one of those cases. Let's also not forget the Jaguars beat Mississippi State outright to start the season and four of their losses came by one score.  South Alabama came pretty close to a nine win season.  The Jaguar coaching staff has had a month to prep for the Air Force option offense, a definite advantage.  Air Force heads into this one on a 0-5 ATS slide when laying double digits.  We saw South Alabama take out another Mountain West entry, beating San Diego State 42-24 as an 18 1/2 point underdog.  The Jags scored the game's final 21 points.  I expect another strong performance in this one.  I'm grabbing the points with South Alabama, my Bowl GOY.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Wednesday, my Bowl Smash.  After a 6-0 start and dreams of a CFB playoff appearance, Texas A&M HC Kevin Sumlin, is back on the proverbial hot-seat. After a loss to Alabama, A&M dropped three of their last five games with the only two wins coming against NMSU & UTSA.  That's been modus operandi under Sumlin.  The Aggies are 8-11 SU & 3-16 ATS, following their first loss of the season over the last three years combined, including a 27-21 SU/ATS loss to Louisville in last year's Music City Bowl.  The Aggie defense has allowed 37 ppg, 556 yards per game, and 7.22 yards per play in their last three bowl games, combined.  Bill Snyder's 'Cats run and stop the run!  Meanwhile, A&M enters on a 0-8 ATS slide.  I'm grabbing the points with Kansas State, my Bowl Smash on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Shocker GOM on Tuesday.  The Temple Owls were “money” this season AND ARE on a 12-0 ATS run.  They won their final seven games of the season SU, including a 34-10 blowout win over favored Navy.  But thanks to all the impressive wins and covers, the Owls are now an overvalued bowl team in my opinion and their HC is taking his expertise to Baylor.  Wake Forest, meanwhile, sails under the radar here, losing their final three games, while finishing with just six wins all season.  And when you consider the schedules, Wake's defensive numbers are nearly as strong as Temple's.  I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Top Shocker Game of the Month.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Miami-Ohio. This one has much to do with motivation and the RedHawks are pumped to be in this game with a chance to take on an SEC school. Mississippi State has fallen short of expectations and can thank their lack of a passing game and their 121st ranked pass defense.  The strength of the Miami offense is the aerial game, while the defense ranks in the top-30 in total yards allowed per game.  We have seen the Bulldogs struggle against less talented opposition this season and we believe this one will stay within the number. Miami enters on an 8-2 ATS run off a spread loss, while the Bulldogs are on a 1-5 ATS slide off a cover.  I'm grabbing the points with Miami-Ohio, my Hammer on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Saturday, my Top Dog Shocker!  It's been a while since SFO won a football game...week-1 to be exact and the opponent was the L.A. Rams.  The Niners won 28-0.  There have been a lot of changes on both sidelines since that September contest.  One of the changes came at QB, where Jared Goff continues to learn the difference between the speed of the NFL and what he saw in college.  Goff is a little banged-up (concussion), but he is expected to start for the Rams on Saturday.  While both teams have struggled at least SFO can count on a top-notch running game.  In fact, Carlos Hyde is just 50 yards from reaching 1,000 yards rushing on the season.  We also note that SFO QBs have thrown just one interception in their last six games, so they're not likely to give the Rams any "freebies" in this one.  The Rams have dropped five in a row ATS and we note NFL road non-favorites are on a 52-23 ATS run in the second half of the season, provided they've lost at least seven straight games.  I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, my Top Dog Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Jaguars, my Hammer release.  We cashed with the Titans as our NFL Dog of the Month last weekend.  Tennessee came through after falling behind early to KC, but this isn't an easy spot for the Titans. Not only are they off the come from behind win against the Chiefs, but they now have the added pressure of knowing they can win their division if they win out. The Titans are also not used to laying this many points.  In fact, they're on a 0-6-1 ATS multi-season slide when laying more than 3 points, including 0-3 ATS in this situation this season.  The Jaguars may be losing games, but they're still playing hard.  Five of their last seven games have been decided by one score. They'll also come in with a clean slate after the firing of HC Gus Bradley. Look for the Jags to respond under interim-HC Doug Marrone and at the very least, hang this number.  I'm grabbing the points with Jacksonville, my Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday, my DogPound Crusher. No one has quit in the Bears' locker room and that includes QB Matt Barkley and RB Jordan Howard.  We expect both to have a big game against a Redskins' defense ranked in the bottom-third in most important categories.  Chicago's defense is playing the better brand of football, overall, and the Bears have covered five straight.  Washington has failed to cover any of their last four off a double-digit home loss and we feel the loss last week was a back-breaker.  Finally, under HC John Fox, the Bears are on an 8-0 ATS run against offenses that average at least 5.65 yards per play. Fox and company have done a great job at preparing their defense for offensive attacks like the one Washington will present.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bears, my DogPound Crusher.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Ohio on Friday.  We like the dynamic QB Greg Windham brings to the Bobcats and the senior signal caller is expected to start on Friday.  Windham's energy leads the Bobcat offense and he enters with a 12-4, TD-INT mark, while also capable of pulling the ball down and beating Troy with his legs when needed. Defensively, the Bobcats are outstanding against the run and we expect Troy's balance to be tested in this one.  Bottom line:  The number is too high in our opinion, giving us value on the dog.  Ohio enters on a 9-2 ATS run in non-conference action and they're on a 6-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record.  I'm taking the points with Ohio, my Bowl Beatdown. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Idaho on Thursday, my Hammer release. This may turn out to be Idaho's final bowl game. The program has one more season at the FBS level before returning to their roots, the FCS and the Big Sky Conference.  Coaches, players, and fans alike, are not happy with the decision to step "down" a level and the team is reportedly fired-up to show the administration it made a mistake.  As far as the matchups, Idaho's defensive line is bigger than CSU's offensive line.  I'm not the first to point that out and not the first to believe Idaho will cause the Rams' problems up front.  The Vandals' defense held three of their last four opponents to 14 points or fewer.  Idaho won six of their last seven games and finished 8-4 SU with all four losses coming against teams that have made it to the postseason.  Idaho enters on a 7-0 ATS run and they're on a 9-1 ATS run the last two seasons against teams that allow at least 200 yards rushing per game.  The Rams allow 213 yards rushing per contest.  I'm grabbing the points with Idaho, my CFB Hammer on Thursday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Tuesday Bowl Knockout.  The Hilltoppers are well known for putting up big bowl numbers after scoring 94 points in their last two postseason appearances.  The passing game has flourished the last two years in bowl action and we expect more of the same.  WKU scored 44 or more points in each of their final nine games this season, averaging 52.1 ppg along the way.  They have passed for 947 yards on 10.9 yards per pass with 8 TDs and just 2 INTs in the last two bowl games, completing 72% of their attempts.  The offense ranks 5th in yards passing per game this season and 2nd in ppg, averaging 45.1.  I expect another big performance against a Memphis defense that's bad against both the pass and run.  The Tigers allowed 42 or more points in four of their last six games. Memphis is on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 15-6 ATS the last 21 times when a total of 63 or higher has been posted. They thrive in an expected shootout, out-scoring the 21 opponents by an average of 49-25.  I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Bowl KO on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Redskins on Monday, my KO release.  The Skins are in the playoff hunt and come home following a 27-22 win over the Eagles, snapping a 2-game losing streak. While they run the football pretty well (13th in the NFL) they love to put their trust in QB Kirk Cousins and the passing game.  The Skins average over 300 yards passing per game, which is 2nd best in the league.  Tonight, Washington gets the porous Carolina pass defense that allows a league-worst 272.4 yards passing per contest.  Panther LB Luke Kuechly is listed as questionable tonight, but we don't mind if he plays.  We note that the Skins are 7-0 ATS in the second half of this season and last when facing a defense that allows at least 235 yards passing per game. Washington outscored those seven teams by an average of 34-22.  I believe Carolina is going to have to play "keep-up" in this one, and with Cam Newton banged-up and the struggles of this team in general, I'm betting they won't be able to hang around.  The Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Skins are on an 8-2 ATS run against teams with a losing record.  We'll lay it with the Redskins, our Monday KO.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Raiders on Sunday, my KO release.  Analytics guys have not been too crazy about Oakland this season.  I get it.  Their defensive numbers don't always look too hot. But the offense has been tremendous most weeks and I expect Derek Carr and company to bounce back from last week's loss in KC with a big game in SDG.  They'll face a Chargers' defense that allows nearly 27 ppg and ranks 25th against the pass.  And SDG is too one-dimensional on offense to take advantage of Oakland...losing Melvin Gordon certainly doesn't help. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers has been struggling, throwing as many INTs (10) as TD passes over the last four games. Oakland enters on an 8-1 ATS run on the road, while the Chargers have covered just 3 of their last 13 at home against teams with a winning road record.  I'm laying the points with the Raiders, my Knockout GOW.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  Obviously, this is a bigger game for Denver than New England, even with the Patriots looking to avenge last year's sweep and hoping to claim top-spot in the AFC.  Denver has a few bumps & bruises to the LB corps, but owns the schemes in pass defense to keep Tom Brady in-check. Denver is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  They're 3-0 SU/ATS at home against the Pats since January 2014, holding the Patriots to an average of 19 ppg.  And while New England has been a road warrior, the Broncos continue to play well this time of year, entering on a 13-6 ATS December run.  I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos, my DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans, my NFL Dog of the Month. Kansas City found a way to win again last week. But the Chiefs' defense is 27th against the run and 27th in total yards allowed per game.  Their games almost always are decided late and in fact, their last six games have been decided by a grand total of 22 points. Tennessee has turned things around under HC Mike Mularkey and they're the playoff hunt thanks to a 6-3 SU run.  The Titans's strength plays right into KC's weakness in this one. Tennessee knows how to run the football effectively, ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards rushing per game.  And last but not least, the Chiefs are in a tough spot...a "sandwhich spot," as we call them.  KC is off the win over Oakland and they have another divisional foe, Denver up next.  KC has covered just 2 of their last 9 home games.  I'm grabbing the points with the Titans, my Underdog Game of the Month.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my first Smackdown of the bowl season.  Bowl favorites who have not had much point-spread success during the course of the regular season (33% ATS or worse) tend to be undervalued and we believe that's the case with Southern Miss (3-8-1 ATS). These teams are on a 21-6 SU & 20-7 ATS run.  We don't base plays solely on situations, but in this type of spot we feel the better team, the fave, is undervalued due in part to perception.  We also have a Golden Eagles' team that out-gained 11 of this year's 12 opponents.  They own the much better offense in this matchup.  Both teams average about 180 yards rushing per game, but UL-L's passing game is non-existent, dragging down their total yards gained per game to 365.9, or 104th in the nation.  Southern Miss ranks 23rd through the air, while pass defense is the weakness of the UL-L defense.  Another key bowl tool is motivation and in this case it's even.  Look for a spread-covering win for the New Orleans Bowl chalk.  I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Smackdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers, my DogPound Crusher.  The underdog is on a 10-3-1 ATS run in Packer games and we expect that trend to continue.  Two weeks ago, Seattle scored just 5 points in a 14-5 loss to Tampa Bay.  So, while many are singing the praises of the Seahawk attack off the 40-7 win over Carolina, I'm not quite sold.  They did that against the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL and the task gets a little tougher this week.  I don't believe you'll see Seattle moving the ball up and down the field this week.  What I do believe will happen is continued success for Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, who looks like he is finally back to 100%. Rodgers has completed 50 of his last 69 passes (72%) for 522 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs.  The Pack offense will face a Seattle defense without Earl Thomas (IR) and I believe that's a bigger deal than even some around the NFL are making it out to be.  We also have a Seattle team with a 3-game divisional lead, while it's virtually now or never time for the Pack.  Green Bay has been "money" in December under HC Mike McCarthy, going 28-15 ATS, including a current 6-1 ATS run.  They're also 10-2 ATS against teams that hold the opposition to an average of no more than 17 ppg. McCarthy has solved solid defenses more often than not in his stay in Green Bay.  I'm betting he'll do it again.  I'm taking the points with the Packers, my DogPound on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Falcons my Main Event on Sunday.  Atlanta has had a chance for a little separation in the division, but have lost two of their last three, including last week's heartbreaking loss to the KC Chiefs. ATL actually gained 32 first downs to 17 for KC, but couldn't overcome a pick-6 and a pick-2.  But the NFL's #1 offense gets "just what the doctor ordered" in this one against a Rams' defense that has shown leaks the last two weeks allowing over 950 yards and 75 points.  Jeff Fisher's offense isn't much better and inserting rookie QB Jared Goff hasn't boosted the sluggish attack.  We note that NFL home teams with a losing record and off two straight road losses are just 20-42 ATS.  And while the Falcons are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, the Rams are on a 1-6-1 ATS slide in their last eight home games.  I'm laying the points with the Falcons, my Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Redskins on Sunday, my Road Warrior.  Washington has dropped two straight, including the loss last week to Arizona.  They could use a win to inch closer to a wildcard playoff spot and while Kirk Cousins didn't have a great game last week, he's certainly been much better than his counterpart.  Carson Wentz looks to have hit the rookie-wall.  Wentz has thrown 10 INTs in his last seven outings.  Philly is a far cry from where they were when they began the season 3-0.  The Eagles have dropped seven of their last nine and the defense has allowed 26 or more points in five of their last six games.  And while the Skins enter on an 8-2 ATS run, the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  The Skins have also covered 5 straight in this series. I'm laying the short number with the Washington Redskins, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night, my KO release. The Raiders have been money on the road, having covered 10 of their last 11 and we expect the Raider offense to be the difference in this one once again.  Oakland's defense leaves something to be desired, but KC doesn't own the offense that gains a lot of separation.  They plod their way through games and give them credit, Andy Reid and Alex Smith have worked together well to win nine of 12 games this season.  The KC defense has their issues, in the bottom-third against both the run and pass and 29th in the league in total yards allowed per game. Look for the red-hot Raider offense to pull away in this one.  KC enters on a 1-7 ATS slide at home and the Raiders are on an 8-2 ATS run at Arrowhead. I'm taking the points with the Raiders, my KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, my DogPound Crusher.  The Buccs allowed 43 points in a 15-point loss to Atlanta to open the month of November.  But since then, the Buccaneers have been red-hot on the defensive side of the football, holding their last three opponents to a grand total of just 32 points, including last weekend when they held Seattle to 5 points.  The Buccs held the three opponents to an average of just 290 total yards per game, while the pass defense has 5 INTs, allowing just 2 TDs.  Meanwhile, Jameis Winston has been taking care of the football, throwing 14 TD passes in his last 7 games with just 3 INTs.  The Chargers won last week, but were outgained by 51 yards in a 21-13 win over the Texans. They took advantage of 4 Houston turnovers and a +3 turnover margin. SDG has covered just 2 of their last 10 off a win and they're 3-9 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU/ATS away from home.  I'm taking the points with the Buccaneers, my DogPound Crusher.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills, my Underdog KO.  Tough spot for the Oakland Raiders, who continue to win games despite a lot of fundamental flaws on the defensive side of the football.  The Raiders are off the hard-fought win over Carolina last week after blowing a 17-point halftime lead, then coming from behind after trailing 32-24 with less than nine minutes left in the fourth quarter.  Oakland has been "living right," with 1-point wins over the Saints & Ravens, 3-point wins over Carolina and San Diego, and an OT win over Tampa Bay.  It'll be interesting to see how effective the offense is this week, facing the Bills' stingy pass defense.  Meanwhile, Oakland ranks 26th against the run and 28th against the pass.  This is the type of defense Tyrod Taylor should enjoy facing.  Finally, NFL home teams have covered just 10 of their last 44 when the line is in the +3/-3 range and they're off a win, while failing to cover as chalk.  Also, Oakland is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. I'm grabbing the points with the Bills, my Underdog Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, my Road Warrior.  Philly hasn't had it easy since their 3-0 start to the season, but they're getting "just what the doctor ordered" in this one. The Eagles need to be able to run the football for the offense to operate at its best and Cincy's weak run defense is exactly what they need to get back on track.  Once the Eagles begin moving the ball on the ground, Carson Wentz can get back to the ball control passing game he ran early in the season.  Meanwhile, the Cincinnati offense is banged-up and have scored 20 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games.  The Eagles enter on a 9-1 ATS run against AFC opponents, while the Bengals are 0-6 ATS this season when the line is in the +3/-3 range as it is today.  I'm backing the Eagles, my Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with West Virginia on Saturday, my Main Event.  Baylor University went through a lot of tragedy due to the football program's behavior off the field, but the team itself was able to maintain focus while it was winning games.  HC Jim Grobe took the interim job as a favor to the administration, but assistants who remained had certainly given 100% of their loyalty to the dismissed Art Briles.  The Bears began the season 6-0, but once they took their first loss on October 29, the wheels came off.  The team completely lost focus and the coaching staff splintered.  No one is recruiting and assistants have been looking for other jobs.  Baylor has dropped five straight games SU & ATS, allowing 47.6 ppg during the skid.  The closest margin of defeat in their last four games was 19 points as a couple of Big-12 opponents exacted revenge. West Virginia is the final team to take a shot at revenge after losing 62-38 in Waco last season.  The Mountaineers are off a 49-19 win in Ames, and while they can't catch Oklahoma for top-spot in the conference, they can reach their 10th win of the season and possibly improve their bowl resume.  WVU's 23rd ranked running game and 25th ranked passing game (514.6 total yards per game) ought to have a field day with the "checked-out" Baylor defense.  All we need is focus from the Mountaineers and there's no reason to think they won't.  As mentioned, Baylor has dropped five in a row ATS.  They're also on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road. The season couldn't end fast enough for the Bears and I'm backing West Virginia, minus the points, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Temple on Saturday, my DogPound release.  The Owls have dropped their first game of the season ATS, but have covered each and every game since.  Defense is their calling card, one of the best units in all of college football defending the run, the pass, and in total yards allowed per game.  And if you can slow down the Navy ground game, their weak passing game is not going to beat you in all likelihood.  The Owls own the defensive athletes to handle the Middies.  Navy's defense gives up a lot of yardage, especially through the air where they rank 107th in yards passing per contest.  I expect Owls' QB Phillip Walker to take full advantage.  Navy is giving up 440 yards per contest and we note that Temple is on a 9-0 ATS run against teams that allow at least 425 yards per game.  The Owls have averaged 41 ppg in those nine games.  We'll grab the points with Temple, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.  We know about the situations that point against the Cowboys on Thursday, but this obviously is a different Cowboy edition. Dallas not only has a QB with 18 TD passes and just 2 INTs, but the running game is fantastic. Ezekiel Elliott has been nothing short of outstanding and while the Viking defense has played well again this season, the fact is, they're middle of the pack against the run.  Once Dallas flexes their running game muscle, Dak Prescott and the passing game should find enough openings to gain the SU and ATS win.  Dallas has had problems against decent passing games, but 1) Minnesota doesn't own a decent passing game, and 2) it sure hasn't hurt Dallas in the win/loss column.  As far as Minnesota is concerned, they have won just one of their last six games, and the win over Arizona happened thanks to a 100-yard pick-6 and a 104-yard kickoff return for a TD.  The offense gained just 217 total yards in the win.  Dallas is on a 9-1 ATS run, overall, and they're on 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's spread magic has hit the skids, dropping five of their last six ATS.  I'm laying the points with the Cowboys on Thursday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chiefs on Sunday night.  KC doesn't often disappoint on the road.  In fact, Andy Reid-coach teams have been true road warriors in the second half of the season under his direction, going 47-29 ATS.  His Chiefs enter this one on a 4-0 ATS run off a cover.  We expect the Chiefs' defense to set the tone in this one, facing a pedestrian Bronco attack.  Meanwhile, the KC offense should find room to run against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, setting up KC's conservative passing game.  The road team has been the way to go in this series, covering five straight and we'll go the way of the roadie tonight.  I'm grabbing the points with the Chiefs, my Sunday Slam.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.  

I'm taking the points with the NY Jets, my Top Shocker on Sunday.  This is a classic Sharps/Squares clash in Las Vegas sports books and we're siding with the sharp money, although that's not the reason we are on the dog.  This series has been ultra close with the Jets on a 5-0-1 ATS run.  Each of the last six meetings were decided by 7 or fewer points and four of the games were decided by no more than a field goal. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start on Sunday after throwing 5 TD passes with no INTs in last year's two meetings. The Jets certainly have the running game and receivers to keep this one close.  Meanwhile, I do believe the Jets and their 4th ranked run defense will keep New England in-check.  New York has bounced back well at home off a home loss, currently on an 18-5 ATS run in this spot.  I'm grabbing the points with the Jets, my Top Shocker on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the SDG Chargers, my Situational KO on Sunday.  Houston's obviously in a tough spot, having lost in the most frustrating of ways on Monday night in Mexico City. The problem with Houston is their one-dimensional offense, able to run the ball for the most part, but with one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL. Brock Osweiler is completing less than 60% of his passes with 12 TDs and 10 INTs.  SDG's defensive strength is their run defense and they're connecting for over 275 yards passing per game on offense.  We note that the Chargers six losses have come by a grand total of just 29 points, virtually in every single game.  The Bolts are on a 9-2 ATS run on the road and they're on a 9-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  Big situational advantage for the road team and we'll back the SDG Chargers, our Situational KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with New Mexico, my DogPound release.  We have been involved in a few Wyoming games this season, including a big win for us when they took down Utah State following a big win over Boise State.  This time we'll play against the Cowboys.  Wyoming is off four straight emotionally taxing games, culminating in last week's outright underdog, 34-33 win over San Diego State.  The defense leaves a lot to be desired and Bob Davie teams are 19-8 ATS against teams that allow at least 31 ppg.  They're also 9-1 ATS against teams that are playing .600 to .750 football. Look for UNM to run the football, doing what they do best against a WYO defense that has allowed 102 points and 579 yards rushing on 95 carries (6.1 yards per carry) in their last two games, combined.  I'm taking the points with New Mexico, my DogPound on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Utah Utes, my Pac-12 Knockout Game of the Month. Colorado controls their own destiny and will claim the Pac-12 South with a win in this one.  That's a lot of pressure on a team that was as low as it gets just a couple seasons ago. The current five-game winning streak is their longest in 14 years.  Utah was eliminated from the division title with a loss to Oregon last week as an 11 point favorite.  CFB conference dogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 42-13 ATS run following a SU loss as a double digit favorite.  The Utes are just 14 points from an 11-0 record.  The ground game should be able to set the tempo for this one and I do believe Joe Williams will find efficient yardage behind his offensive line.  I also like the fact they have been true road warriors, posting an 8-0 ATS run on the road against winning teams over the last three seasons.  I expect this one to remain close throughout, giving us value on the road team.  I'm grabbing the points with Utah, my Pac-12 Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Michigan, my Beatdown release.  Ohio State has owned this series of late, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, while scoring 42 points in each of the last three.  But few DC's have developed a scheme for slowing spread attack, Buckeye-style offenses like Michigan DC Don Brown.  This marks the first time J.T. Barrett and company have faced his schemes since Brown signed-on with Michigan last December after guiding Boston College to the #1 ranked defense in 2015.  The Wolverines have responded in quick fashion under his guidance and rank #1 in total yards allowed per game, passing yards per game, and in points allowed per game. And don't think about running against them, they allow 108.6 yards rushing per contest.  The Buckeyes are vulnerable to a well-coached, athletic defense as we've seen four times in Ohio State's last six games.  I do believe the Wolverines will be up to the task of slowing Ohio State's offense, while the U-M offense does enough to at least cover the spread if not win outright.  Michigan has covered five straight on the road against teams with a winning record and Ohio State has covered just 6 of their last 22 against teams that allow no more than 5.75 yards passing per attempt. Michigan's defense fits the bill.  I'm taking the points with Michigan.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.