CFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
10-09-17 | Edmonton -7.5 v. Montreal | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Eskimos on Monday afternoon. Something has to give with these two teams struggling at the same time. Edmonton has dropped six straight games after beginning the season 7-0. Montreal has dropped seven in a row both SU & ATS. But the Esks are a playoff caliber team, while the Als are playing out the string. Montreal has allowed an average of 38 ppg during the losing streak. And they're 0-4 ATS this season in revenge of a road loss. Edmonton is getting just what the doctor ordered in this one. The Esks are the top offenisve unit in the league in total yards per game and yards passing per game. Montreal is a disaster, ranked dead last in yards rushing allowed and second to last in points allowed per game. Making matters worse, the Als' offense ranks second to last or last in the league in total yards, passing yards, and points scored. We'll side with the chalk. I'm laying the points with Edmonton on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-22-17 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg -7 | 9-29 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Blue Bombers on Friday night. Ottawa has gone on a nice run after a slow start to the season, but the run is likely being derailed by injuries. The Red Blacks will be missing their top two QBs in all likelihood with Drew Tate and Trevor Harris both nursing injured shoulders. Enter former Arizona Cardinals QB Ryan Lindley. I don't believe he fits the CFL game well, completing just 7 of 14 passes when called upon last time out, but mostly because he's not much of a threat with his legs. Lindley is averaging just 1.5 yards per carry on 36 carries this season. Winnipeg is 8-3 on the season, including 4-1 SU at home and need a win to stay within earshot of division leading Calgary. The Bombers have scored at least 33 points in each of their last four home games, averaging nearly 40 ppg. We don't believe the battered Ottawa offense will be able to keep up. We're laying the points with Winnipeg on Friday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-10-17 | Edmonton v. Ottawa -2 | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm backing Ottawa on Thursday, our KO release. Tough and close calls have led to a 1-5-1 start for the RedBlacks. This team is just a handful of plays from a terrific start to the season. In fact, they're 14 points away from a 7-0 mark. I believe they get "healthy" tonight against an Edmonton team that's a walking "mash" unit, especially up front on the offensive line. We had Ottawa last week and they blew the win in a 3-point loss to Winnipeg. But tonight I expect a strong start and finish. I'm backing Ottawa, our Thursday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-04-17 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -2.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 17 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Friday night. Ottawa got a much needed bye last week after coming up just short in a loss to Toronto the previous week. The RedBlacks are 1-3-1 SU on the season, but just 11 points from a 5-0 record. And when you consider they have a tie and a 4 point loss to Calgary, arguably the most talented team in the league and a 2 point loss to Edmonton, a definite contender in the West, you get a better picture at just how good this Ottawa team can be. Winnipeg owns the better record at 3-2 on the season, but the Blue Bombers don't exactly strike fear into opposing offenses, having allowed 40 or more points in three of five games and giving up an average of 35.8 ppg this season. The Bombers have allowed a whopping 5.35 yards per play on first down and a ridiculous 7.17 yards per play on second down in a league where you punt on third down. That's not good at all, obviously, and I believe it catches up to them on Friday. Winnipeg may have a tough time keeping up this week with their top offensive player banged-up. We'll lay the points with Ottawa as they look to extend their run to 8-1 ATS. The Ottawa RedBlacks are our CFL G.O.M.! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-29-17 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -3 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 38 h 13 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Saturday. We had Toronto last week and the Argos almost blew it in the fourth before eking our a 27-24 win over Ottawa. Toronto is probably a season away from truly contending. They are 3-2 in Marc Trestman's return to the CFL, but two of the wins came against Ottawa by a grand total of four points, while their other win came against winless and hapless Hamilton. Toronto's two games against the stronger West Division resulted in a 28-15 loss to BC and a 33-25 loss to Winnipeg. They're traveling and taking on a focused Saskatchewan team that can't afford too many more losses before picking up a couple wins. The Roughriders are 1-3, splitting their home games with two of the three losses coming by a total of four points. The defense has played well, holding their opponents to 3.32 yards per play on first down, an important handicapping tool in this three-down league. Toronto has had their problems with their first down offense the last couple of weeks, putting themselves in a hole, and we feel they're going to pay for it in this one. We also expect a now healthy Roughrider offense to have a major advantage over a badly banged-up Argo defense, playing on a short week. I'm laying the points with Saskatchewan, our KO release on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-24-17 | Ottawa v. Toronto -1.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 114 h 49 m | Show |
I'm laying the short points with the Toronto Argonauts on Monday night as they look to make it two wins over Ottawa in 16 days. The RedBlacks are in a tough scheduling spot playing their second game in five days and third game in 11 days. We had Ottawa on Wednesday and cashed the ticket. But I'm not too sure Ottawa would have won that game without help from Montreal. While the RedBlacks won, 24-19, Montreal suffered two turnovers inside the Ottawa 10-yard line and four turnovers, overall. The so-so Ottawa defense allowed the Als to gain an average of 8 yards per play on first down. This is really nothing new for this defense. They struggled against the Argos earlier this season, allowing 6.1 yards per play on first down, while the offense averaged just 2.7 yards per first down play. It's an important stat in this 3-down league. Toronto will play their first game since July 13, having plenty of rest and an opportunity to improve on their game. The Marc Trestman/Ricky Ray led offense will face an Ottawa defense that ranks second to last in the CFL in total yards allowed per game and yards passing allowed per game. They aren't much better against the run and rank third to last in ppg allowed. No team throws the ball for more yards per game than the Argos, while the Toronto defense is top-3 against the run, the pass, and in total yards allowed per contest. We'll back the Toronto Argonauts, our CFL Knockout on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-19-17 | Montreal v. Ottawa -4.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Wednesday. We cashed with Ottawa plus the points last week. The Redblacks have been close to landing in the win column and are now in a situation where they can't afford many more losses. They also have a beatable opponent this week. Ottawa has already faced Calgary twice, playing to a 31-31 tie and losing by four in the second meeting. Two weeks ago they lost 26-25 to Toronto and last week, lost by two points at Edmonton. Ottawa is a grand total of 8 points from a 4-0 start. Montreal is off one of its biggest wins in quite some time, knocking off Calgary last week in front of the home folks. It was an emotional win and the Al's may have a tough time reaching the same intensity level against an angry & desperate team that's much better than their record would indicate. I'm laying the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks, our Wednesday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-14-17 | Ottawa +5.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 24 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Friday. Ottawa has been close thus far and are now in a situation where they can't afford any more losses. Ottawa has already faced Calgary twice, playing to a 31-31 tie and losing by four in the second meeting. Last week, they lost 26-25 to Toronto and are a grand total of 6 points from a 3-0 start. Edmonton is off a bye week, overvalued due to records, and have not been too hot as home chalk. We'll grab the value...taking the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-08-17 | Toronto +4.5 v. Ottawa | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 41 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday night. The Argos made the hire of the year, maybe of the last few years in bringing Marc Trestman back to the CFL sidelines as a head coach. The NFL game might not have been the right fit, but Trestman has flourished north of the border. His Argos are 1-1 this season and came within a couple of decisive plays of a 2-0 start before losing last weekend to the BC Lions. But I expect a bounce back here. Ottawa is finished in a 31-31 tie as a 6-point dog to Calgary in their lone game of the season. The Ottawa offense played well, but the defense couldn't hold the Stamps in check. The secondary watched Bo Levi Mitchell complete 50 of 79 passes against them the last two weeks, allowing 5 TD passes with no picks. The defense has allowed 5.24 yards per first down play and a whopping 7.49 yards per play on second down in the three down league. The Ottawa defense should provide "just what the doctor ordered" as Ricky Ray looks to get his offense back on track after a defensive battle last week against BC. Ottawa is on a 1-7 ATS slide as home chalk, while Trestman-coached CFL teams are on a 7-0 ATS run off a double digit loss as a favorite. We'll grab the points with the Toronto Argos, our first Canadian Crush of the new season. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-06-17 | BC -3 v. Montreal | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Thursday night. As mentioned last week, BC played about as poorly as this Grey Cup contender can, yet still almost won their week-1 contest with Edmonton. They won and covered for us last week, an outright underdog winner over Toronto, but the game was in the balance until the fourth quarter. HC Wally Buono wants to see 60 minutes of focused action from BC and we believe he'll get it tonight in Montreal. Look for QB Jonathan Jennings to use his legs even more this week, complimenting the Lions' passing game. Jennings ran the ball just six times a week ago, averaging over 4 yards per carry. Montreal looks ripe to get beat a few times on the ground by Jennings. We also expect the listless Al's offense to find the going tough. Montreal is averaging just 3.3 yards per play on first downs this season, a tough hole to dig out of in the 3-downs league. In comparison, BC averaged nearly 5 yards per first down play against Edmonton and 5.8 yards on first down last week against Toronto. The Lions enter on an 11-4 ATS run on the road, while the Alouettes are on a 1-6 ATS slide as a home underdog. We're backing the BC Lions minus the points, our Thursday KO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-30-17 | BC +3 v. Toronto | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the BC Lions on Friday night. BC played about as poorly as this Grey Cup contender can, yet still almost won their week-1 contest with Edmonton, another contender. The Lions' offensive line had their issues in pass blocking situations, but I expect a better prepared team this week. Toronto benefited from playing against a banged-up and weak Hamilton team in their opening week win. The Ti-Cats were decimated in the secondary going into the game and Toronto took full advantage. The Argos were also aggressive on the defensive side of the football and I expect another aggressive effort after seeing the problems BC had up front last week. I also expect the approach to backfire. Look for BC HC Wally Buono turn athletic QB Jonathan Jennings loose in this one, taking advantage of his ability with his feet, complimenting the Lions' passing game. Argos HC Marc Trestman is back in his element, roaming the CFL sidelines, but I expect his squad to be out-played by a better team looking to avoid an 0-2 start. CFL underdogs are now a perfect 5-0 ATS after another cover on Thursday and they're on a 16-4-1 ATS run over the first four weeks of the season since the start of the 2016 campaign. The dog has covered four of the last five meetings and Toronto enters on a 1-7 ATS slide going back to last year. I'm grabbing the points with the BC Lions, our Friday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-24-17 | Edmonton v. BC -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 11 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Saturday. There's not much wrong with the Eskimos offense, but the Lions are the better unit and because of the advantage BC has on the defensive side of the football, Edmonton will be hard-pressed to keep up and we don't believe they will. Jonathan Jennings leads a very talented Lions' attack and the signing of WR Chris Williams gives Jennings the deep threat to complete a fantastic receiving corps. And while the defense lost a couple of studs to the NFL, they still have a future NFL LB in Loucheiz Purifoy and few know how to get the most from a defense like BC HC Wally Buono. BC ranks 2nd in my CFL power ratings, trailing only Calgary. Look for a strong week-1 start. I'm laying the points with the BC Lions, our KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-19-16 | Calgary v. BC -3 | 37-9 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Friday night. The Stamps & Lions have split the season series thus far, but BC, winners of the first meeting opening week, should probably have won the second meeting, also. BC held a 15 point fourth quarter lead with less than four minutes to go in the most recent meeting (July 29) before a massive collapse ended in a 44-41 OT loss. The Lions couldn't overcome a minus-2 turnover ratio in the contest and failed to put the Stamps away, but they've bounced back with two straight wins. The Lions have scored 38 or more points in each of their last four games. QB Jonathan Jennings has completed 68% of his passes over the last four games (98 of 145), averaging 360 yards passing per game on 9.93 yards per attempt, with 10 TD passes and just 4 INTs. He has a fantastic group of receivers and the ground game has churned out 86.3 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in their last four outings. Jeremiah Johnson has gained 136 yards on 30 carries with 3 TDs in his last two games. The Lions have covered four straight games and CFL home teams with a line range that includes tonight's number are on a 47-17 ATS run if they're at home and playing in revenge, provided they allowed at least 38 points in the loss. With the way the Lions' offense is hitting on all cylinders, we're looking for the home team to gain a measure of revenge. I'm backing the BC Lions minus the points, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-30-16 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -4 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with Saskatchewan on Thursday night. The Riders are looking to avenge last year's season sweep at the hands of the Argos. But then again, Sask will be in plenty of revenge situations after a horrible 2015 campaign. They're healthy though to start this one and will face a Toronto team with a lot of unanswered questions off of last week's season opening loss. The Argos thought they improved up front on the offensive line, but they couldn't keep QB Ricky Ray out of trouble and lost in their first game at their new home stadium. Another game or two could help, but tonight, they're in for what I believe will be a long night. Toronto is also banged-up at WR and in the defensive secondary. Sask HC Chris Jones was outstanding in the same position in Edmonton and his teams enter on a 10-1 ATS run as home chalk of no more than seven points, outscoring the 11 opponents by an average of 35 to 15. Meanwhile, the Argos enter just 1-5 ATS in their last six games going back to last season. I'm laying the points with Saskatchewan, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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11-29-15 | Ottawa +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Ottawa RedBlacks in Sunday's Grey Cup. Ottawa is led by QB Henry Burris, who led the league in passing at the young age of 40. Burris threw the football nearly 680 times this season, yet finished with a completion rate above 70%. He's blessed with more receiving weapons than any other team in the league and that's the main reason I like them here. Edmonton's style of defensive play doesn't account for four top-flight receivers. I also like Ottawa's chances on the defensive side of the football, where they'll face an Edmonton offense with a starting RB who just joined the team a few weeks ago. In fact, Akeem Shavers has 24 carries and three receptions on the season, including the playoffs. This not only hurts the running game against the league's best run defense, but it also hurts in pass blocking with familiarity being an issue. It's because of these issues on both sides of the line of scrimmage that I'm taking the points. The icing on the cake: Ottawa is on a 10-3 ATS run against teams that allow a completion rate of 61% or higher. They're also 10-3 ATS as an underdog this season. I'm grabbing the points with Ottawa on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-02-15 | Calgary Stampeders v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Hamilton on Friday night. Hamilton will look to exact some revenge after a week-one 24-23 loss in Calgary. The Tiger-Cats defense forced Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell into making a few mistakes and that's been a staple of Hamilton's defense all season. The Ti-Cats have scored 147 points off of turnovers. There is anxiety among Hamilton fans with QB Zach Collaros going down to injury in their previous contest. Rookie Jeff Mathews came into the game in relief and threw three interceptions. Mathews, a Cornell graduate, will make his first CFL start. He had a bye week last weekend to help him prepare as a starter, rather than a little used reserve. But interestingly enough, while at Cornell, Mathews quarterbacked a Big Red offense coached by his current Hamilton HC and OC. All three were at Cornell at the same time. Hamilton, one of the two highest scoring offenses in the CFL, is running virtually the same offense Mathews ran in college. Hamilton will face a Stamps' defense missing two of its best players and Calgary is also banged-up in the offensive trenches. We should note the Stamps are usually overvalued, which explains their 4-10 ATS slide, overall, and their 1-5 ATS slide on the road. Meanwhile, the Tiger-Cats are on a 6-0 ATS run off a non-cover. They're 8-1 ATS against teams with a winning record and have covered 16 of their last 21, overall. I'm grabbing the points with Hamilton, my CFL Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-18-15 | BC Lions v. Calgary Stampeders -11.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with Calgary on Friday night. Both teams are off a loss, but the Stamps are a Grey Cup contender, while BC may miss the playoffs, currently sitting with a 4-6 record. The Lions have been messy on the offensive side of the football, averaging just 19.2 ppg in their last six outings. Calgary enters on a 13-3 ATS run (second half of the season) against teams averaging no more than 23 ppg. The Stamps outscored those 16 weak offenses by an average of 32-16. And while Calgary owns the CFL's second highest scoring offense and gets star RB Jon Cornish back for the first time in weeks, the Lions allow a league high 392 yards per game, including the CFL's worst run defense. Then there's the Calgary defense that's tied for the most sacks in the league against the anemic attack they'll face tonight. The Stamps enter on a 20-7 ATS run off a SU loss, while the Lions are on a 1-7 ATS slide against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with Calgary, my KO release on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-07-15 | Edmonton Eskimos +4.5 v. Calgary Stampeders | 7-16 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Eskimos on Monday. Calgary comes into this one with a 7-2 mark and a four-game winning streak in-hand. But CFL teams on a winning streak of at least four games have covered just eight of their last 37, provided they own a winning record, overall. Calgary is also just 1-3 ATS at home this season and we released them at this site in the lone game they covered. Four of their seven wins were by three or fewer points and they're on a 2-8 ATS slide in their last 10 games. Edmonton owns the secondary to slow down the Stamps aerial attack. In fact, the Esks rank #1 in the CFL in run defense, pass defense, overall defense, and in points allowed per game. They also have a dynamic young QB in rookie James Franklin who passed and ran through Toronto last time out like a hot knife through butter. Franklin definitely adds another dimension to the Eskimos' offense. Edmonton enters on a 6-2 ATS run and I expect another cover in this one. One final note: both teams have been off for awhile and Calgary has not fared well in this spot, covering just two of their last 12 when playing with at least eight days off between games. I'm grabbing the points with Edmonton, my CFL Monday Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-06-15 | Winnipeg Bombers v. Saskatchewan Roughriders -4 | Top | 19-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Sunday. While they're winless on the season, the Riders could pull within three games of a playoff spot with a win on Sunday. And the team is absolutely fired-up. Sask canned their HC and GM following last week's latest loss and newly promoted HC Bob Dyce says it's time to infuse a little more of a ground game, which has been the case over the years when the Riders have been at their best. Dyce has been on the staff in some fashion for six years, so he has seen this organization at its very best. The offense still leads the CFL at 412 yards per game, and adding more of RB Anthony Allen to the mix, combined with Jerome Messam is going to help this squad become even more effective. After all, it's not about the yardage...it's about the win column. Winnipeg is down to its third string QB with Brian Brohm getting the start. Drew Willy is still out, while backup Robert Marve recently landed on the IL. Brohm has not thrown a TD in his CFL career, but has thrown five INTs. The Bombers enter on a 0-6 ATS September slide and they're 3-14 ATS in their last 17 against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes. Sask fits the bill. I'm laying the points with the Riders, my CFL GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-28-15 | Toronto Argonauts v. Edmonton Eskimos -5.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Eskimos on Friday night. This number has moved, but not enough in my opinion. Edmonton is a much different team than the one that lost in Toronto in week-1. That contest was tied to start the second half, but the Argos outscored the Esks, 16-1 over the final two quarters. Edmonton lost their starting QB (Mike Reilly) in the second half and their current starting QB, James Franklin, wasn't even the backup back then. Franklin is the man behind center now and has a much better receiving corps than the Esks had then, also. In fact, Edmonton's receiving corps is deep and loaded with talent. Rookie Derel Walker, who didn't factor at all in week-1, has come into his own with Franklin, and has 24 receptions the last two games. The Esks are also coming off a horrible outing against Hamilton, losing 49-20. The final score, however, doesn't tell the entire story. Edmonton committed 8 turnovers in the contest, yet still gained 464 total yards. Toss aside last week's result and Edmonton has allowed just 14 ppg to the rest of their opponents, owning the best defense in the league. The CFL's best secondary will face a Toronto team that has been eking out wins. The Argos have won just one game by more than seven points all season and could have easily lost in three of their six wins (6-2 SU). Toronto is a handful of plays away from a 3-5 SU record. The Argos enter this one on a 5-17 ATS slide against defenses that hold opponents to no more than six yards per play...Edmonton fits the bill. Toronto is 1-8 ATS on the road following a home game. And finally, the Esks are on a 10-1 ATS run as home chalk this season and last combined, outscoring the 11 opponents by an average of 33-11. I'm laying the points with Edmonton, my CFL Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-15-15 | OTTAWA v. CALGARY -8.5 | 3-48 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Calgary Stampeders on Saturday night. A chance at revenge for the defending Grey Cup Champs after Calgary lost 29-26 in OT at Ottawa just a few weeks ago. I believe they'll accomplish that goal in spread covering fashion. The Stamps are off a bye week and HC John Hufnagel has never lost off a bye as HC of Calgary. In fact, the Stamps are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven after having a week off. Hufnagel stated this week that his team is healthy, outside of RB Jon Cornish, and I'm not worried about that with Matt Walters & Tory Harrison able to pick up any slack. QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been taking care of the football in the passing game, throwing 106 consecutive passes without an INT. The Stamps are 19-4 SU in games Mitchell has started, including 11-2 at home. Ottawa has been the surprise team in 2015, and like Calgary, they're 4-2 on the season. But the Redblacks have enjoyed a favorable schedule. In fact, this marks just their second road game in six weeks. We played against them in their last roadie, and cashed an easy one when Edmonton whipped Ottawa, 46-17. The Redblacks are on a 2-11 ATS slide on the road against teams that connect on at least 61% of their passes. Combined with Calgary's 5-1-1 ATS mark already mentioned, we have a 16-2 ATS mark. I'm backing the Calgary Stampeders, my CFL Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-31-15 | SASKATCHEWAN +10 v. EDMONTON | Top | 5-30 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
I'm backing Saskatchewan plus the points on Friday night. I lost with the Riders last weekend - forced to watch them blow a fourth quarter lead and fall to 0-5 SU. As I stated in last week's analysis, the Riders are a much better team than their record indicates. Believe it or not, at 0-5 SU, the Riders still own the #1 rushing offense, #1 passing offense, and #1 total offense in the CFL! And at 478.8 yards per game, they out-distance the league's #2 offense by more than 70 yards per contest. They also average 126 yards per game more than tonight's opponent, the Edmonton Eskimos. The Riders lost two games in OT, including one at BC. They lost by three points in a second game against the BC Lions, despite out-gaining them by nearly 200 yards. The Riders lost by four points to Winnipeg, despite leading well into the fourth quarter, and as mentioned above, blew a fourth quarter lead in last week's loss to Hamilton. Saskatchewan was favored in three of their four home games and PK'm in the other. They were a 3-point underdog in their lone road game at BC. Thanks to their record (and not so much how they got there) combined with Edmonton's home field and 3-1 mark, the number on this one finds the Riders getting double-digits at the time of this post. CFL teams in Edmonton's situation have not fared well. In fact, you're 37-9 ATS going against home chalk of 3 1/2 to 10 points, provided that team is off a home win over a division rival and have a winning record on the season. And, Saskatchewan is on a 40-13 ATS run when facing teams playing .750 or better football on the season. The Riders averaged 26 ppg in those 53 outings, while allowing 27 ppg. I'm grabbing the points with the Roughriders on Friday, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-26-15 | HAMILTON v. SASKATCHEWAN | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
I'm backing Saskatchewan on Sunday. Roughrider fans have grown used to backing a team playing for championships. But this has been a disappointing start to the season with the Riders entering Sunday with a 0-4 record. The record, though, hardly tells the story. Sask has out-gained all but one opponent. They're averaging over 510 yards per game, easily the most explosive offensive unit in the CFL, out-distancing the league's second best offense by more than 120 yards per game. The Riders have the top rushing RB in the league in Jerome Messam and QB Kevin Glenn has thrown for more yards than any other QB in the CFL this season. Sask is 0-4, but they've been in every game, losing two games in OT. The Riders also lost by four to Winnipeg, despite leading well into the fourth quarter, and lost their most recent game, 27-24 to BC, despite out-gaining the Lions, 517-327. Hamilton's start (1-2) has been a little disappointing, also. But the Ti-Cats will be playing their fourth straight road game to start the season, while this marks Saskatchewan's fourth home game in five weeks, before heading out on the road for back-to-back contests. It's an extremely important game for the Riders and I believe they're up to the task at hand. The Riders enter on a 13-2-1 ATS run in their last 16 home games against Hamilton, including three straight wins and covers, winning by a combined score of 113-33. I believe it's breakout time for the Riders and I'm on board. I'm backing Saskatchewan, my CFL Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-09-15 | Ottawa Redblacks v. Edmonton Eskimos -6 | Top | 17-46 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Edmonton Eskimos on Thursday. The Ottawa Redblacks are off to a 2-0 winning start after suffering through a horrible 2014 season. But after catching every break in the book in week-one, including the opposition having QBs drop like flies during the game, the Redblacks faced what turned out to be a BC squad that had a very tough time dealing with the fact they hadn't played a game due to a week-one bye. BC was uncharacteristically sloppy and committed too many penalties. They simply looked like a team with the disadvantage of not having played a game against a team that had. Having said that, Ottawa barely edged by Montreal in week-one, and trailed the Lions heading into the fourth quarter last weekend. Tonight, the Ottawa offense, led by the seemingly never-aging Henry Burris, must face its toughest test yet, the Edmonton Eskimos nasty defense. The Esks were a very popular play in week-one, but lost to Toronto. Edmonton lost their starting QB, who's sidelined for at least 10 weeks. But they had a bye week last weekend and will be led by the capable Matt Nichols, who's certainly not new to the CFL game. I expect a completely focused effort and for the Esks defense to slam the door on the Redblacks. We should note the Eskimos are on a 6-0 ATS run off a bye week and a 5-0 ATS run at home. I'm backing Edmonton, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-04-15 | B.C. Lions -3 v. Ottawa Redblacks | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing the BC Lions minus the points. The Ottawa Redblacks are off to a winning start, downing Montreal 20-16 in a come from behind win last weekend. Ottawa caught the Als at the right time...a week before Montreal named Rakeem Cato starting QB (check out Cato's stats from last night). Instead, the Redblacks had the fortune of facing a Montreal offense stuck in neutral with three QBs showing they weren't ready for CFL action out of the blocks. Ottawa will face a hungry QB this week with Travis Lulay making his return behind center for the BC Lions in their season opener. Jeff Tedford takes over as HC of the Vancouver entry and he's looking to win right out of the blocks in his first game under the headset. The former CFL player and Cal Bears coach is quite excited with a BC defense that's not long removed from being one of the best in the CFL. Add in the weapons surrounding Lulay and I believe Ottawa is in for a much tougher contest in week-2. The Lions were an 8-point favorite in last season's meeting in Ottawa, falling short of the cover in a SU win, and they won the second meeting, 41-10. Now, laying just three points, the value lies with the road team. I'm laying the points with the BC Lions, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-24-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders +11 v. Calgary Stampeders | 27-40 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Friday night. There's no catching the Calgary Stampeders in the West Division or for best record overall, as the Stamps have it wrapped up with a 13-2 record and three weeks to go in the regular season. Tonight marks the Roughriders second to last game and they're looking to snap a four-game losing streak. The Riders were cruising along looking like a serious threat to capture another Grey Cup title and then the injury to QB Darian Durant (out for the season) derailed the green train. But the Riders signed 41-year old Kerry Joseph to the roster in the last two weeks and the veteran CFL signal caller has one game under his belt. Joseph didn't play badly at all last week against Edmonton, but was rusty at times. The difference in the game turned out to be an Eskimo kickoff return for a TD in a 24-19 Edmonton win. But with a week and game under his belt, I expect Joseph to be even sharper on Friday night. Calgary, as mentioned, has wrapped-up the best record in the CFL in 2014. While we expect all hands on deck at the start of the contest, don't be surprised to see a few more reserves getting playing time in the second half. There will be no home playoff games in Regina no matter what the Riders do in this one or in their final regular season game, but they need a win to hold off the BC Lions for third place in the West. Saskatchewan came within seven points in a 31-24 loss to Calgary a few weeks ago and that was with Sunseri & Doege splitting time at QB. It was a tie game with less than two minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Riders out-gained the Stamps by 101 net yards, but couldn't overcome three interceptions. With Joseph on the field, I expect better results behind center. Saskatchewan is on a 40-11 ATS run against teams winning at least 75% of their games on the season. I'm betting they cash again. I'm taking the points with the Roughriders, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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10-03-14 | Calgary Stampeders -4.5 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the Calgary Stampeders on Friday night. The season has hit the skids a bit for Sask after losing QB Darian Durant for the remainder of the season to an elbow injury. Since then, life has been tough on the Rider offense and we expect more problems tonight against a Stamps defense ranked #1 in points allowed per game and #2 against the run. The onus of the Sask offense will fall squarely on the shoulders of rookie QB Seth Doege. Tough spot to be thrown behind center in the CFL. Meanwhile, Calgary will start Drew Tate at QB, but Bo Levi Mitchell is also expected to be available if needed. Calgary enters on a 4-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record, while the Roughriders are on a 6-21-2 ATS slide off a SU loss. I'm laying the points with the Stampeders of Calgary, my Friday Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-26-14 | Montreal Alouettes v. Ottawa Redblacks +2.5 | Top | 15-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm backing the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday night. The first half of our Montreal betting block (for lack of a better term) cashed last week when the Alouettes not only covered as a 7-point underdog to Calgary, but made it easy in a 31-15 outright win. We not only cashed that ticket, but it set us up nicely for this week's contest. Montreal is off the big win and now have to guard against a bit of a hangover against a team they beat in August, and one that's 1-10 SU on the season. Montreal is also in uncharted waters. They have not been an away favorite in any of their last 13 road games. In fact, the last time the Als were installed as road chalk was June 27, 2013, when they laid 3 1/2 points to Winnipeg. Montreal is 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) on the road this season, scoring a grand total of 56 points, or 11.2 ppg. They're facing a much different Ottawa defense on Friday compared to the one they faced in August (and Montreal only score 20 in that one). The Redblacks allowed a whopping 31.5 ppg through their first six games of the 2014 season, but they have shored-up some issues and have held their last five opponents to an average of 20.2 ppg in regulation. Spread that out (20.2 ppg) over the course of the season and the expansion Redblacks would own the second stingiest scoring defense in the CFL, trailing only the BC Lions and by just a half-a-point per game. Ottawa has played two of the league's best right to the wire the last two games, losing by just 2 points to BC, and by 3 points, 35-32 in OT to Saskatchewan last week. Besides Montreal's 1-4 ATS mark on the road, CFL September home non-favorites (dogs or PK) off a road loss are on a 53-23 ATS run. We look for the situation to continue trending in a winning fashion. I'm taking the points with Ottawa, my Main Event GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-21-14 | Calgary Stampeders v. Montreal Alouettes +7 | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Alouettes on Sunday. Calgary has won six straight games, covering five. But they're heading into this one "fat & sassy" and likely looking ahead a little bit to next week's revenge matchup with BC. The Stamps have lost only one game all season, a 1-point defeat to the Lions on August 1. Today, it's Montreal in a revenge situation for a season-opening, 29-8 loss in Calgary. But the Als are better now than they were then, they have won two of their last three games, overall, including two straight outright wins at home. Als' HC Tom Higgins has done well in the situation they're in today. His teams are on a 12-2 ATS run in revenge of a game where they scored less than 14 points. They're also on a 14-4 ATS run against teams that allow opponents to complete at least 61% of their passes. Calgary may have the shiny record, but they're second to last in the CFL in pass defense. We began week-13 by taking underdog Toronto and easily winning when they beat BC outright, 40-23, getting at least six points. We'll end the CFL week with the underdog Montreal Alouettes, our CFL Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-19-14 | Toronto Argonauts +6.5 v. B.C. Lions | Top | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Toronto on Friday night. Tough spot for BC on Friday. The Lions are off a big division win over Winnipeg and are playing on a short week with a huge matchup against Calgary next week. BC beat the Blue Bombers last Saturday, 26-9. CFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points have covered just 15 of the last 63 times if they're off a home win against a divisional rival. And earlier this week, it seemed as though Lions' HC Mike Benevides was doing all he could to "sell" his team that this week's opponent, Toronto, should get 100% of their focus, rather than looking ahead to next week's game with the Stampeders. Speaking of Toronto, the Argos are off a 40-33 loss at Calgary. The Argos covered as an 11 1/2-point closing line underdog as the offense seems to be back on track. Toronto will be looking to avenge an earlier season home loss and they have been money in this spot, covering 11 of their last 13 in revenge of a home defeat. With the offense looking once again, like Toronto offenses of old, I believe they're going to give BC all they can handle and a possible SU upset would not surprise me. I'm taking the points with Toronto, my Friday night Knockout Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-14-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1 | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Sunday. Over-valued pro football teams aren't exclusive to the NFL. We see the same thing happening in the CFL. Saskatchewan is once again a contender for the Grey Cup title. They're 8-2 SU, but they're in a couple of tough spots on Sunday. First of all, that 8-2 SU record isn't quite as shiny as it looks. The Riders last five wins have come by a grand total of 26 points. Not a single win came by more than six points, fortunate to win each and every one of those contests. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats own a 2-7 SU record, but are just a handful of plays away from a winning record and have grown used to out-gaining the opposition, doing it more often than not in 2014. There are some serious situations backing the Cats in this one. First of all, you're 47-22 ATS going against road teams in games with a -3/+3 line range, provided they have won at least three straight games. And under HC Corey Chamblin, the Riders are 0-7 ATS against teams with a losing record after week-9 of a season, averaging just 19 ppg, while allowing 25 ppg. This shows his teams are somewhat overrated against losing teams, thanks to their usual shiny SU record after week-9. There's a reason a 2-7 Hamilton team is a slight favorite over an 8-2 Saskatchewan team, and we'll jump on it. I'm backing the Hamilton Tiger Cats, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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09-01-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1.5 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
I'm backing the Hamilton Tiger Cats on Monday. The Cats open up their "new digs" on Monday in the battle for Ontario. Hamilton is expected to have Zach Collaros at QB, who makes his return for the first time since suffering a concussion in week-2. Collaros' return will be welcomed. Hamilton has been so close to picking up a few more wins on the season with four of their last six losses coming by 7 points or less and three losses coming by less than 6 points. Mistakes on offense should be at a minimum with their top signal caller back behind center. The Cats are coming off their bye week, having extra time to work out the kinks, while this marks the Argos 4th game in 21 days. Toronto has allowed 74 points in their last two games, combined, and they have given up 33 points or more in five of their nine games this season. Hamilton enters on a 5-1 ATS run off a bye week, while the Argos are 1-5-1 in their last seven road games. I'm laying the short points with Hamilton on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-23-14 | Toronto Argonauts +7.5 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Toronto Argonauts, my Saturday Knockout. The last time these teams met in Edmonton, the Eskimos were a 1 point underdog. Toronto won the game 34-22 and just 11 months later, the Argos find themselves getting more than a full TD. While Edmonton is off to a 6-1 start to the season, thanks in part to stingy defensive play, they shouldn't be this big of a favorite. We went 2-0 with games involving Toronto last week. We had the Argos in their 38-21 win Tuesday, August 12, and we went against them and won just five days later in a 33-17 Toronto loss. Playing on short rest, the Argos kept it close for three quarters, before BC pulled away in the fourth. But Toronto is rested for this one and are catching too many points. This is a big game for Toronto QB Ricky Ray who returns to his old stomping grounds for the first time since leaving Edmonton before the 2012 season. And his coach has done a great job preparing his team for road action. The Argos are on a 12-3 ATS run on the road after the first month of the season under HC Scott Milanovich. I expect another cover in this one. I'm grabbing the points with Toronto, my Saturday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-17-14 | B.C. Lions -3 v. Toronto Argonauts | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm backing the BC Lions on Sunday. We played on the Argos on Tuesday and took advantage of a big scheduling factor when Toronto lined-up against a Winnipeg team playing with just five days off between games. Toronto is in that particular situation tonight. While the Argos were in a dogfight for three quarters on Tuesday, they pulled away with a 17-0 fourth quarter, when it became obvious the Bombers were gassed. Toronto is not only on a short week, but they're also a banged-up football team. BC hasn't announced their starting QB this week with Kevin Glenn and Travis Lulay taking snaps as though both are going to play. We are fine either way. And while Andrew Harris hurt his ankle last time out, the team has enough depth in the running game to make up for his potential loss. BC has run the ball at least 20 times in each of their last five games. They're on a 29-2 SU run when doing just that and that style of play, running at least 20 times should work to wear down the busy Argo defense. Not a single BC opponent has topped 300 yards passing so far this season and Argo QB Ricky Ray is 0-3 against the Lions since joining Toronto. I'm laying the points with the BC Lions as they look to extend their road August run to 24-8 ATS. The Lions are my Canadian Crush on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-16-14 | Montreal Alouettes +13 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | 11-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm grabbing the points with the Montreal Alouettes on Saturday night. Saskatchewan got off to a rough start this season, losing two of their first three games. But the Grey Cup champs went back to the drawing board during their bye week and have since won three straight games. Last week, the Riders won a hard-fought, slobber-knocker, a 23-17 win over Winnipeg. Next week, Saskatchewan will be on the road, looking to exact revenge for a 26-13 week-3 home loss to BC. This is the epitome of a sandwich spot...not to mention the CFL poster game for buy low - sell high. We're buying low with a Montreal team that has struggled to say the least. Finally - HC Tom Higgins has made the change, benching Troy Smith and starting former Washington State signal caller Alex Brink behind center. Higgins has also given the OC reigns to Ryan Dinwiddie and he has hired-on former CFL QB Jeff Garcia, also of 49ers fame, full-time to help direct the offense. Word is, the Als have had one of their best practice weeks since before the season began. And they're obviously in a great spot with the Riders likely looking ahead to next week's game in Vancouver. CFL non-favorites are on a 55-24 ATS run if they failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and Montreal is a perfect 6-0, 100% ATS in this spot over the last two years. Montreal is on a perfect 4-0, 100% run against Sask, (10-0 combined spots), covering the last two in Regina by a combined 20 1/2 points ATS. Last time here, Montreal lost 24-21 as a 12-point underdog and I expect another closer than expected contest tonight. I'm grabbing the points with the Montreal Alouettes, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-09-14 | Ottawa Redblacks +13.5 v. Calgary Stampeders | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the Ottawa Redblacks on Saturday night. Ottawa is an expansion team and their record represents it. But the team works their tails off, owns a fantastic coaching staff, and they're being undervalued in this one. One of those coaches is HC Rick Campbell, who knows the Stamps inside and out. Campbell was Calgary's DC the last two seasons and he was an offensive assistant with the Alberta entry in 2010. We went against the Stamps last time out and we cashed the ticket. Calgary is 4-1, but they don't always win by wide margin and the offense is questionable. I don't believe they'll pull away and reach the margin needed in the books in this one. Calgary has been over-valued at home going 1-3-1 ATS in their last five. And playing on CFL non-favorites off a loss by at least 20 points is on a 37-11 ATS run. I'm grabbing the points with Ottawa, my CFL Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-08-14 | Edmonton Eskimos v. Montreal Alouettes +5 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with Montreal on Friday night. While the Al's haven't always inspired this season, they have actually out-gained two of their three home opponents, and face an over-achieving Edmonton squad this week. While the Esks are off a bye, the Alouettes are off a 31-5 loss to Toronto. But CFL teams have been outstanding in the situation the Als are in, going 37-10 ATS the last 47 times a non-favorite has been off a loss by at least 20 points. The Als themselves, are on an 8-3 ATS run off a loss and they have dominated this series. Yes, Edmonton owns the much nicer record, but they're over-valued, in my opinion on Friday. I'm grabbing the points with the Alouettes, my Friday night Situational Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-01-14 | B.C. Lions +4.5 v. Calgary Stampeders | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the BC Lions on Friday night, our top CFL play for this week's card. The Lions disappointed again last week in a loss to Winnipeg, repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot. Kevin Glenn had a rough outings, throwing a couple of INTs, but not before driving the offense into Blue Bombers territory. While the Lions are well below projections at 2-3 SU, they are ranked 2nd in the league in total yards per game and in total yards allowed per game. The Lions also rank 1st in the league in yards passing allowed per contest and give up just 18.4 ppg. It's simply been a case of self-inflicted wounds at inopportune times. The last time BC was coming off a mistake-filled loss, we jumped on board for two straight weeks and cashed in a 26-13 win over Saskatchewan and a 41-5 win over Montreal. We then passed last week's contest against Winnipeg. But we're back on Friday and we'll take the points against a Calgary team we backed on these pages one week ago. We are backed by a key CFL situation in this one. CFL road dogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 23-4 ATS run if they're off an upset loss to a division rival in the first half of the season. And BC in particular, is on a 31-16 ATS run as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 7 points. We'll grab the points with the BC Lions, this week's KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-31-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4 | 27-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Thursday night. We played Hamilton last week and cashed the ticket and one of the reasons we backed the Cats, (as stated last week), was that Dan LeFevour was going to start at QB for injured Zach Collaros. We did not want to get involved, laying points, if Jeremiah Masoli was going to start. The former Oregon & Ole Miss QB needs more time at the CFL level to learn the ropes as Ti-Cat bettors found out in their previous contest. LeFevour passed for 361 yards and ran for 109. C.J. Gable finished that game with 167 all-purpose yards and veteran WR Andy Fantusz had five receptions, one of four WR's to catch at least three passes. LeFevour opens up the offense and I expect more of the same in this one. Defensively, Hamilton is best in the east in TD passes allowed (five), and they'll face a Blue Bombers' QB in Drew Wily with just two TD passes in his last four games. Winnipeg is off the big win over BC, a game where the Lions virtually gave the game away with numerous miscues, including three turnovers. The Bombers enter this one having covered just 3 of their last 15 off an upset double-digit win, getting outscored 31-21 on average. We should also note that teams that hold the opposition to no more than 6.9 yards passing per attempt are on a 28-9 ATS run when facing teams that average 7.5 to 8.3 yards per pass. Hamilton's defense should be up to the task again, and since they're now getting help from the offense, we'll back the home team. I'm laying the points with Hamilton, my Canadian Crush, as they look to extend their run to 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in this series. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-26-14 | Ottawa Redblacks v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -7 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I'm backing the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Saturday night. Hamilton is 0-3 on the season, but a win tonight and they could be in a tie for first in the East Division. They'll face an Ottawa team that won their first home game in their initial season in the league last weekend, an 18-17 win over Toronto. Hamilton lost 10-7 last week in Calgary. QB Zach Collaros missed the game and will miss this one, also. Last weekend, the Cats went with Jeremiah Masoli and it was obvious he wasn't ready for prime-time. Dan LeFevour will get the start over Masoli tonight. LeFevour came into the game in the second half last week, completed 9-of-11 passes in limited action, and led the Cats down the field for a potentially game-tying 29-yard FG attempt. But the kick was blocked and the Cats lost by 3. The offense clicked under LeFevour and I expect a strong performance tonight. The Ti-Cat defense will face an Ottawa offense that has scored just 1 touchdown in the last 11 quarters. We should note that Kent Austin-coached teams (HC Hamilton) are on a 10-1 ATS run against teams that average no more than 23 ppg. Look for Hamilton to get their first win of the season by a spread-covering margin. I'm laying the points with Hamilton, my Canadian Crush. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-24-14 | Calgary Stampeders -1 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 26-22 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
I'm backing the Calgary Stampeders in a battle of unbeaten CFL teams on Thursday night. Calgary has owned the series with Edmonton over the last few seasons and I expect their defense to lead them to another victory in this one. The Stamps are on an 8-0 SU run in the series, they have won seven straight SU in Edmonton, covering four in a row. Some will be playing the revenge factor, but I believe that's an over-used term in the world of sports betting as evidenced by the Stamps four straight covers in Edmonton. I believe Calgary will be too stout for the Eskimo offense tonight. The Stampeders have held their first three opponents to an average of just 71 yards rushing per game and have not allowed a single TD in two of their games so far this season. Edmonton's 4-0 start is unexpected. The Esks have now won as many games through the first four weeks as they did all of last season. They'll need to be able to gain yardage on the ground (2nd in the league) but as mentioned, they'll face the ultra-stingy Stamps' run defense. The Esks are middle-of-the-pack in yards passing per game and they have allowed 11 sacks (almost 3 per game) to just 3 sacks allowed (1 per game) by the Stamps' offensive line. I'm not surprised Calgary stands 3-0 on the season. I am a little surprised Edmonton is off to a 4-0 start and I believe the emotions will be a little too high for their return home in the battle of Alberta. The Stamps are on a 21-6 ATS run off a spread loss. And you're on a 51-19 ATS run going against winning CFL teams that have covered at least 3 of 4. Finally, under Coach Hufnagel, the Stampeders are 29-14 ATS when the line is in the +3/-3 range as it is tonight. I'm backing Calgary, my Thursday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-19-14 | Montreal Alouettes v. B.C. Lions -6.5 | Top | 5-41 | Win | 100 | 40 h 51 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with the BC Lions on Saturday night. This marks the second straight week we'll back BC as we look to win both. Last weekend, BC broke through on the road with a 26-13 outright underdog win over Saskatchewan. After a couple of poor performances by Lions' QB Kevin Glenn, the veteran signal caller got back on track in week-3 and we expect another strong outing in this one. He'll face a Montreal defense that's middle of the pack at best and will be tested by the BC attack. Meanwhile, the BC defense, ranked 3rd in the league in points allowed, finally got to take a normal approach, rather than having to "make up" for a turnover-plagued offense. They should have very little trouble with a Montreal offense that's been all ground and no air through the first three games. This is also a chance at revenge for the Lions after losing 24-9 at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in week-2. The game started with a Chip Cox INT for a Montreal TD and things simply snow-balled, with Glenn and the BC offense making mistake after mistake. The Als finished the game with 16 more offensive plays than BC thanks to a +2 turnover margin. But as stated, the Lions' offense is better now than it was then, getting used to the direction of Kevin Glenn, while starting QB Travis Lulay remains on the 6-week injured list (shoulder). Back to the BC defense. The Lions allow just 6.16 yards per pass and Montreal is on a 1-12 ATS slide against defenses that allow no more than 6.9 yards per pass. The Lions are also on a 13-3 ATS run at home against Montreal, winning the last three by scores of 36-14, 43-10, and 43-1. The 42-point win was our 2011 GOY. I'm riding BC again. I'm laying the points with the BC Lions, my Saturday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-12-14 | B.C. Lions +6 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with the BC Lions on Saturday. While Saskatchewan got rocked last weekend, this game has become much more important for a BC Lions team that is expected to contend for the Grey Cup, but has started the season 0-2. QB Kevin Glenn has not played well filling in for the injured Travis Lulay, but he's facing a bit of a leaky defense in this one. Saskatchewan played well in week-1, but the defense got torched for over 400 yards passing and 3 TD's by Argos' QB Ricky Ray last weekend. The Riders have made some changes, including a trade in the secondary and will give way to a little more youth. I do believe there will be a bit of a learning curve in this one and that's a positive for Glenn and the Lions' offense. We're also getting some value with the road dog. They were 4-point and 3 1/2-point underdogs in last year's final two meetings in Saskatchewan and they're getting a couple more points in this one. The Lions are 26-10 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points off a road loss as a favorite. CFL teams are on a 38-12 ATS run if they're getting 3 1/2 to 10 points and are off a week where they committed at least 3 turnovers. Finally, the Riders are 5-19-2 ATS off a SU loss. I'm taking the points with the BC Lions on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-04-14 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats +4 v. Edmonton Eskimos | 24-28 | Push | 0 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with Hamilton on Friday night. As I said last weekend, Hamilton spent the off-season making major news with key signings on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage, including bringing in former Saskatchewan-great and All-Star, DB Craig Butler. They also looked to shore-up their pass rush and have made strong moves in order to do so. The Ti-Cats are turning the quarterbacking reigns over to former Cincinnati Bearcat Zach Collaros in 2014 and I expect success for the offense beginning tonight. Hamilton enters on an 8-2 ATS run as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points, averaging 27.6 ppg in those games. The Tiger Cats certainly "laid an egg" last week in their season opener, but the offense will attack an Edmonton defense filled with plenty of question marks following last season's 4-14 campaign. The Eskimos will also be fresh for the picking after beating BC last week thanks to 4 interceptions thrown by Lions' QB Kevin Glenn. Just as we see in American college football and the NFL, there has been an overreaction to one game, in my opinion, and Edmonton is getting too much credit. Besides the 8-2 ATS spot mentioned earlier, we should note that CFL teams that lost by at least 20 points as a non-favorite are on a 32-10 ATS run. That's a combined mark of 40-12 ATS. I'm grabbing the points with Hamilton, my Friday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-26-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Winnipeg Blue Bombers +5 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. Big changes for the Bombers after losing 14 of their final 16 games to end last season. They hired one of the hottest coaching prospects in former Toronto assistant Mike O'Shea, who gives them immediate insights into the Argos plans. They will also start Drew Willy at QB, with an improved receiving corps and running game. Toronto is two seasons removed from winning the Grey Cup, but dropped a couple notches rather quickly last season from where they were in November of 2012. The Argos were knocked from the postseason in the first round and will now look to revamp the offense a bit with a running game that's certain to be down from the 2013 campaign. Ricky Ray will attempt to QB his squad through the changes, but it's not going to happen right out of the blocks, despite his leadership skills. The Bombers still have some improvements to make on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage, but they'll give the Argos all they can handle and then some tonight. Toronto closed last season on a 1-4-1 ATS slide, while CFL teams are on a 25-5 ATS run if they're getting 3 1/2 to 10 points from a non-conference opponent and are off a losing season. I'm grabbing the points with Winnipeg, my Thursday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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