I'm taking the points with the Utah Utes, my Pac-12 Knockout Game of the Month. Colorado controls their own destiny and will claim the Pac-12 South with a win in this one.  That's a lot of pressure on a team that was as low as it gets just a couple seasons ago. The current five-game winning streak is their longest in 14 years.  Utah was eliminated from the division title with a loss to Oregon last week as an 11 point favorite.  CFB conference dogs of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 42-13 ATS run following a SU loss as a double digit favorite.  The Utes are just 14 points from an 11-0 record.  The ground game should be able to set the tempo for this one and I do believe Joe Williams will find efficient yardage behind his offensive line.  I also like the fact they have been true road warriors, posting an 8-0 ATS run on the road against winning teams over the last three seasons.  I expect this one to remain close throughout, giving us value on the road team.  I'm grabbing the points with Utah, my Pac-12 Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Michigan, my Beatdown release.  Ohio State has owned this series of late, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, while scoring 42 points in each of the last three.  But few DC's have developed a scheme for slowing spread attack, Buckeye-style offenses like Michigan DC Don Brown.  This marks the first time J.T. Barrett and company have faced his schemes since Brown signed-on with Michigan last December after guiding Boston College to the #1 ranked defense in 2015.  The Wolverines have responded in quick fashion under his guidance and rank #1 in total yards allowed per game, passing yards per game, and in points allowed per game. And don't think about running against them, they allow 108.6 yards rushing per contest.  The Buckeyes are vulnerable to a well-coached, athletic defense as we've seen four times in Ohio State's last six games.  I do believe the Wolverines will be up to the task of slowing Ohio State's offense, while the U-M offense does enough to at least cover the spread if not win outright.  Michigan has covered five straight on the road against teams with a winning record and Ohio State has covered just 6 of their last 22 against teams that allow no more than 5.75 yards passing per attempt. Michigan's defense fits the bill.  I'm taking the points with Michigan.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Tulsa on Friday night.  Not sure we can find two teams headed in an opposite direction as much as these two are.  Cincinnati is a mess with a HC on the hottest of seats, while Tulsa's offense is clicking on all cylinders.  The Golden Hurricane have won four of their last five games, covering six straight, and they're just a 7-point loss to Houston and a 2-point loss to Navy from a 10-1 SU record.  Tulsa has averaged 46 ppg in their last five outings, averaging 566 yards per game on 7 yards per play. HC Philip Montgomery has developed a running attack that's averaged 318 yards per game on 6.1 yards per carry over the last five games, while the passing game has generated 14 TD passes and just 2 INTs.  Montgomery was the OC & QB coach at Baylor from 2012 through 2014, so yes, he knows a thing or two about offense.  QB Dane Evans needs just 261 yards passing to hit 3,000 yards on the season and Tulsa has not one, but two RBs who have each rushed for more tha 1,200 yards on a combined 6 yards per carry.  And if that's not enough, Tulsa is loaded at WR with three players gaining between 635 and 988 yards receiving.  This is not good news for a Bearcats' squad that looks to have "checked out."  We like to call it our "dead team" list when we reach the second week of November and beyond and Cincy is surely a part of it.  UC has scored 13, 3, 3, & 7 points in their last four games, averaging 263 total yards per game on just 4.16 yards per play.  That includes 92.5 yards rushing per game on 3.14 per carry. The passing game isn't much better.  We also note that if needed, Tulsa should have little trouble distancing themselves from UC in the second half. Tommy Tuberville's troops have been outscored 48-7 in the second half of their last four contests.  They're 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and on a 0-6 ATS slide off a home loss.  Not only has Tulsa covered six straight, but CFB teams are 23-5 ATS as home chalk of 21.5 to 31 points, provided they average at least 230 yards rushing per game and their opponent averages just 100 to 140 yards rushing per game.  Tulsa gains a measure of revenge for last year's loss and builds their resume for the bowl season.  I'm laying the points with Tulsa, my CFB Game of the Year.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UCLA, my Rivalry Game of the Month.  Not having Josh Rosen behind center has led to a tough season for the Bruins, who have definitely fallen short of expectations. But while adjustments need to be made by the linesmakers for "missing parts" throughout the course of the season, we feel this line has been adjusted too much.  No one disputes USC being the chalk here, but this is a 17.5 point move from where we have the game after two weeks of the regular season.  The Bruins also showed signs of life in their 38-24 win over Oregon State last time out, extending their chance of gaining bowl eligibility with two more wins (as if these teams need extra motivation when facing each other).  USC is receiving a ton of hype after knocking off Washington in Seattle with some calling the Trojans a legit top-10 football team at the current time.  Yes, they have played well with Sam Darnold at QB, but we expect this one to be close to the very end.  Under HC Jim Mora, Jr., UCLA is 13-4 ATS against teams playing .600 to .750 football, outscoring those 17 teams by an average of 35-27.  Meanwhile, the Trojans have covered just 2 of their last 8 road games, while the Bruins are on a 5-1 ATS series run. The spread has ranged from 2 points to 5 points over the last four meetings and we believe their has been too big of an adjustment in this one.  I'm backing UCLA plus the points, my Rivalry GOM. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with West Virginia, my Top Shocker.  While OU saved what was looking like a potential rough season, the fact is, the Sooners have not beaten a list of challenging foes.  Even the win over Baylor means much less than it would have with Baylor coaches and players alike, seemingly playing out the string ever since they lost their undefeated season a few weeks prior to losing to OU.  The Sooners allow 31 ppg and have been horrible against the pass. They're going to face a WVU squad that's different than the typical Big-12 team in that they play a more deliberate brand of offense, and can run and pass effectively.  They also are unique to the conference in that they play defense, allowing just 20.6 ppg, the 19th stingiest mark in the nation.  Simply put - I believe the better team is getting points and at home.  We note Bob Stoops' Sooners have covered just 8 of 25 after winning seven straight games and they're on a 0-5 ATS slide off a cover.  I'm grabbing the points with West Virginia, my Top Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Virginia Tech, my Knockout on Saturday.  The Hokies travel to South Bend off a tough loss to Ga Tech, snapping a 3-game winning streak.  Va Tech owns road wins over North Carolina, Pitt, and Duke, and one could argue all three of those teams have had a better season than the Irish, even Duke, who beat Notre Dame under the golden dome earlier this season.  Va Tech's defense has been stellar most of the season, one of the top units in college football, while the offense is undervalued.  Jerod Evans can get it done with his arm (22-4 TD-INT) or his legs (600+ yards rushing & 6 TDs), while Notre Dame has been shaky both on the ground on offense and stopping the run on defense.  The Irish have won just 2 of their last 6 home games SU and we'll back the Hokies.  Virginia Tech is our Knockout GOM.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with Kansas State on Saturday, my Morning Massacre. Assistant coaches are looking for other jobs and have gone behind Jim Grobe's back in their support of former HC Art Briles.  No one has been on the recruiting trail and Baylor has dropped three straight games, allowing a whopping 143 points along the way. It's as though many of the coaches have checked-out.  This might not be one of Bill Snyder's top editions in Manhattan, but the Wildcats play hard for their HC and are in need of another win in order to become bowl eligible. They're also in revenge for a 31-24 loss a season ago.  K-State ran for 6.2 yards per carry in their previous outing, falling short at Oklahoma State.  But they've had an extra week to prepare, and road teams with a -3/+3 line range are on a 40-15 ATS run, provided they average at least 4.75 yards per carry and ran for 6 or more yards per carry in their most recent game.  I'm laying the short points with Kansas State, my Road Warrior against a fading Baylor squad. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Illinois Fighting Illini, my DogPound play on Saturday.  We expect Iowa to fall back to earth in a hurry, following last weekend's home win over then undefeated Michigan.  The Hawkeye offense leaves a lot to be desired and even if leading we suspect they'll have a tough time extending the lead.  Illinois will be a motivated football team, understanding they have a winnable game on senior day against a team in letdown mode.  The home team also expects to have their top QB back on the field with Wes Lunt expected to start.  We believe Illinois has a fighting chance to win this game outright, but we're taking the points for insurance.  My DogPound play is Illinois plus the points.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan, my MAC Game of the Week on Wednesday.  Northern Illinois is used to contending for conference titles and bowl berths, but not this season.  In fact, NIU had their bowl hopes dashed with last week's loss to Toledo in their home finale.  The Huskies are now just playing out the string.  Eastern Michigan is all about the pass on offense, while they're strong against the run on defense.  This means they'll attack NIU's weakness on both sides of the line of scrimmage, making the difference in this game.  The Huskies enter on a 2-8 ATS slide against teams with a winning record, while the Eagles have covered seven of their last eight games, overall.  I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan, my MAC Game of the Week.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Arkansas on Saturday night.  The Razorbacks are playing their final home game tonight and catch LSU at an opportune time, just like they did the last two seasons. The schedule makers have not done LSU any favors, placing Arkansas on their slate, following the Alabama game for the third straight season.  Two years ago LSU lost 20-13 to Bama, followed by a 17-0 shutout loss to Arkansas.  Last season, Arkansas whipped LSU 31-14 following LSU's 30-16 loss to the Tide.  Here we go again. We also have a Tiger squad that just had any dreams of playing for a national title swept out from under their feet. A lot of emotion and even their physical edge went out the window with the loss after leaving everything on the field in last week's loss. Arkansas, meanwhile, showed serious moxie, whipping Florida 31-10, following an embarrassing loss to Auburn.  QB Austin Allen played well after a sluggish start, leading the offense.  But the bottom line - timing is everything...and timing is certainly on the side of the Hog.  LSU has covered just one of their last six road games, while Arkansas is on a 22-8 ATS November run, getting strong down the stretch, and the Hogs have covered four straight meetings.  I'm grabbing the points with Arkansas, my SEC Shocker of the Year.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Vanderbilt, my SEC Knockout.  The Commodores need to win at least two of their last three games in order to become bowl eligible, and with Ole Miss and Tennessee to close the season, this winnable game becomes even more important.  Mizzou offers "just what the doctor ordered." The Tigers have fallen on hard times, just 2-7 SU on the season and no longer in bowl contention following a 31-21 loss at South Carolina, the Tigers 5th straight loss SU & ATS! The defense looks cooked, allowing an average of 40 ppg during their 5-game skid.  Besides Mizzou's 0-5 ATS slide, we have a Vandy program on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that average at least 275 yards passing per game, and they are on a 6-0 ATS run off a road loss the last two seasons (lost 23-16 at Auburn last week).  I'm grabbing the points with Vanderbilt, my Knockout Blowout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon.  Both teams are undefeated in the Sun Belt, along with Arkansas State.  But although Troy has played well enough to be in this spot, they aren't at App State's level in the trenches in my betting opinion.  App State's only losses came at Tennessee and at home to Miami (we had the Hurricanes).  They have won six straight games and have owned teams in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  App State has out-rushed each of their last six opponents by an average of 243 to 84!  We do believe the Mountaineers will be able to lean on and wear down the Trojans in the second half of this contest. App State has covered four straight road games, while Troy is on a 1-4 ATS slide at home.  And finally, road teams are on a 42-14 ATS run if the line is in the +3/-3 range and they out-rushed their previous opponent by at least 200 yards (out-rushed Texas State 307 to 133 last week). I'm backing Appalachian State, my Saturday Daytime Crusher.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with Navy.  I generally like playing on a ground-control and disciplined football team when facing an uptempo squad. Navy knows how to move the chains and keeps the clock moving when facing a team like Tulsa.  Navy should have little trouble on the ground against Tulsa's middle-of-the-pack run defense.  The Middies knocked off Notre Dame last weekend, but I expect no lull.  After all, Navy is and was the better team at this point of the season, so no surprise in what took place.  The Middies are excellent against teams that rush for at least 230 yards per game, covering 34 of the last 52 times and they're on a 10-1 ATS run at home.  I'm laying the short number with Navy, my Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with West Virginia on Saturday, my Road Warrior. Back to back wins by the Texas Longhorns, but the struggling defense could be in more trouble this week, likely gassed after facing 196 offensive plays the last two weeks combined.  The Mountaineers pile-up over 500 yards per game, but play a different style than most Big-12 offenses, which includes more ball control and deliberate looks.  I believe WVU will wear down the Texas defense throughout the second half. I also expect the 3-3-5 defense employed at times by WVU, to throw a wrench into the Longhorn offense.  We'll back West Virginia plus the points, my Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Oklahoma against a Baylor squad that seems to be looking for the end of the season. The coaching staff is looking for jobs at other locales, no matter what they say. No one is recruiting and the program has hit the skids, emotionally.  Baylor has allowed 97 points the last two weeks in losses to Texas & TCU. Three of their last four wins have come against teams who own a combined 3-24 SU record.  The fall from grace continues.  I'm laying the points with Oklahoma, my Morning Massacre GOM. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Utah Utes on Thursday night, my KO release. Both teams have had a little extra time to prep for this one, but we don't believe anything will help the permissive Arizona State defense.  The Sun Devils have allowed 40 or more points in six of their last eight games, including three straight.  ASU continues to blitz on 3rd down plays and has stuck with that plan despite getting burned time-after-time.  Utah had won three straight and seven of eight before a tough loss at home to Washington last time out.  The Utes took the nation's 4th ranked playoff polls team to the brink before a late punt return for a TD proved to be the difference.  Utah is a grand total of 12 points and two games away from a perfect 9-0 start to the campaign.  The Utes still have a chance at a Pac-12 title game appearance, but need to win out to start, so the motivation is certainly in place.  Utah enters on a 12-3 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record.  I'm laying the points with the Utah Utes, my KO release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wyoming, my Bailout release.  Many are expecting a letdown & hangover from the Cowboys after they upset Boise State one week ago.  I don't.  And with the number dropping from as high as 7, Wyoming is my side.  First of all, HC Craig Bohl is used to directing college kids to national titles, having done so at North Dakota State before arriving in Laramie.  There are no letdowns in winning multiple national titles and I believe he'll have his troops more than ready.  Bohl also only needs to point out what happened in Logan last season when his team was whipped 58-27 by the Aggies.  Wyoming is also surging, winners of four in a row SU & ATS. They own the running game to slam USU up front, wearing down the short-handed Aggies throughout the course of this game.  USU's offense doesn't run or pass well and they're 101st in the nation in ppg, averaging less than 24 per contest.  Meanwhile, the USU defense has serious holes when attempting to defend the run.  The Aggies have dropped four of their last five both SU & ATS, scoring just 16.8 ppg against Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State. I expect more of the same in this one. Look for a big game from Wyo RB Brian Hill, who has already rushed for 1,156 yards on the season.  Finally, while Utah State is on a 0-5 ATS November slide, the Cowboys are on a 5-0 ATS run in MWC action.  I'm laying the points with Wyoming, my Bailout Blowout. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with NC State, my Top Shocker. Florida State's last four games have all been hard-fought, close battles, having played Wake Forest, North Carolina, Miami, and Clemson. The energy level may not be what it would have had Florida State not lost three games through their first eight. The defense has struggled against the pass (91st in yards passing per game), and NC State can throw the football, averaging about 255 yards per contest. The Wolfpack defense is also stout against the run, which puts more of offensive burden on the shoulders of Seminoles' QB Deondre Francois, who has a tendency to rush things in the passing game. The Pack are used to giving FSU a run in Raleigh, on a 6-0-1 ATS run at home against the 'Noles, including a pair of outright wins in Florida State's last three visits. I expect another NC State cover at the least and I'm taking the points with NC State, my Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with SMU, my AAC DogPound Game of the Month. The Mustangs are getting closer and closer to being bowl eligible after a horrible 2-win campaign a season ago. SMU has kicked things into gear for second-year HC Chad Morris, scoring 113 points in their last three games combined. His team is averaging nearly 5 1/2 yards per play and QB Ben Hicks has 7 TD passes and just 2 INTs in those three outings. The Mustang defense has been outstanding of late, holding Tulane to 391 yards after holding the high scoring Houston Cougars to 303 yards on 4.45 yards per play! I expect SMU to have no trouble moving the ball on the ground and through the air against the weak Memphis defense that has allowed 101 points in their last two games, combined. The Tigers are wearing down for the second straight year. Memphis lost four of their last five games last season (including their bowl defeat) allowing 35.5 ppg in the losses. The only win in the five-game stretch came in blowout fashion over these SMU Mustangs. I expect serious payback in this one. I'm taking the points with SMU, my AAC DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Charlotte, my Road Warrior on Saturday.  So Miss has been sluggish quite a bit of late, including last weekend when they finally forged out to a 24-7 lead over fading Marshall, before giving up a long TD run and a backdoor cover. But the Golden Eagles are now on a 0-3 ATS slide when laying double digits and they're overvalued in this one. Charlotte has been surging, covering three straight, while coming within one point of a perfect 3-0 SU run.  We had them a couple weeks ago as a double-digit dog to Marshall and we cashed when they not only covered, but won outright on the road.  They've had an extra week to prepare for Southern Miss and I'm betting they'll keep this one much closer than the line would indicate.  So Miss has covered just 3 of their last 15 at home after outgaining their previous opponent by at least 225 yards.  They averaged 30 ppg, while allowing 24 in those 15 contests.  I'm grabbing the points with Charlotte, my Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wake Forest on Saturday, my TKO. The Demon Deacons have a chance to gain a bowl-eligible 6th win for the second straight game and I believe they'll get it by spread-covering margin, after a poor performance last weekend against Army. Virginia is a much different opponent than the Cadets were, one that's been wearing down in the second-half of games. UVA's pass defense is terrible, their run defense isn't good, and they can't run the ball on offense. Look for Wake's 33rd ranked run defense to shut the door on the Cavaliers, while UVA is heading to Winston-Salem with a slew of players listed as doubtful or out for this game. I'm laying the short points with Wake Forest, my TKO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arkansas State on Thursday night.  Most know by now how much I enjoy going against teams than can't run the football on offense or stop the run on defense. Georgia State certainly qualifies on both sides of the line of scrimmage, one of the worst teams in both important categories.  The problem for the Panthers -- they can't throw the ball either. Meanwhile, Arkansas State still has a shot at a bowl invitation, but they can't afford losses to beatable teams like GSU.  The Red Wolves season-long numbers aren't great at the two categories mentioned above, but they have been much better during their current three-game winning streak, gaining strength as the season progresses.  ASU has gained an average of 419 yards on 5.74 yards per play in their last three games, rushing for 222 yards per game on 5 yards per carry, while starting QB Justice Hansen has completed 61% of his passes for 7.64 yards per pass with 6 TDs and 3 INTs.  Meanwhile, the Red Wolves' defense has held their last three opponents to 319 yards per game, 3.36 yards per carry, and have allowed just 51% passing with 3 INTs and 1 TD pass allowed.  ASU is improving as the season progresses, while the same cannot be said for GSU. Arkansas State is on a 34-16-1 ATS conference run and they're 6-1 ATS following their last seven SU wins. Meanwhile, the Panthers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  GSU is also banged-up heading into Thursday's game.  I'm laying the points with Arkansas State, my Thursday night Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Southern Miss on Saturday night.  The Eagles had last weekend off, licking their wounds after back-to-back losses to UTSA & LSU.  The loss to LSU was understandable, facing a Tiger team that's finally playing like most thought they would before the season began.  This is also USM's chance to snap a five-game, somewhat ugly head-to-head losing streak, not having beaten Marshall since a 41-16 win in 2010.  We went against the Thundering Herd last week and cashed as Charlotte, who opened +14 (closed +8.5), beat Marshall outright. Marshall is a major disappointment this season and they're "this close" to being placed into our "dead team" category.  They're 119th running the football, averaging just 113 yards per game. Marshall's defense is equally horrible in every important category, including 100th against the pass and 98th defending the run.  I expect the Southern Miss offense to find little resistance, while the Eagles' defense slams the door on the struggling Herd offense.  Marshall enters on a 0-4 ATS conference slide and they're 1-6-1 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game (the ran for 88 yards last week). We began the season cashing a play on Southern Miss over Kentucky and we'll back them here.  I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Conf-USA Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

My Afternoon Annihilator is Wake Forest minus the points.  We played the Demon Deacons here two weeks ago and cashed when they covered against Florida State and we feel they're still flying a tad under the radar. The best thing about Wake is that they stop the run, ranked 23rd in yards rushing allowed, and running the football is all the Cadets can do.  Take away the run and their offense bogs down as it did against Duke and North Texas in two of their last three games.  Army has only thrown 74 passes on the season.  Wake Forest has dropped just two games on the season, remain undervalued and we'll back them whether QB Kendall Hinton (questionable) returns or not. I'm laying the points with Wake Forest, my Afternoon Annihilator.

I'm taking the points with Purdue on Saturday.  The coaching change seemed to energize the Boilermakers this past weekend and they gave Nebraska all the Huskers could handle in Lincoln, despite Nebraska being in a big revenge spot.  Purdue has actually been an excellent money-maker of late off a SU loss, covering seven of their last eight.  They're catching Penn State at the most opportune time they could ask for.  The Nittany Lions are off the big win over Ohio State despite doing next to nothing offensively.  PSU turned a blocked punt into a FG and returned a blocked FG attempt into a game winning TD with less than five minutes to go in the contest.  QB Trace McSorley connected on just 8 of 23 passes for 154 yards and 1 TD, and the running game gained just 3.3 yards per carry.  But they did find a way to win and the Nittany Lion faithful stormed the field.  The reality of it all from our perspective is that Penn State is 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 road games.  They allowed 91 points and 962 yards on 6.21 yards per play in their two road games this season.  Look for Purdue to keep this one close at the very least.  I'm taking the points with Purdue, my Top Dog Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Oklahoma State, my DogPound release.  The Cowboys have been red-hot on offense, especially in the passing game, and it's translated to points on the scoreboard, averaging about 44 ppg over the last three games.  West Virginia's defense is middle of the pack and outside of TCU, the Mountaineers have not beaten anyone of note during their 6-0 start to the season.  Even TCU, at 4-3 SU, is in rebuilding mode this season.  I expect OSU QB Mason Rudolph to find success against the WVU defense which must defend five OSU targets with double digits in receptions and 10 players who average at least 10.5 yards per grab. I'm taking the points with Oklahoma State, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Iowa State on Saturday.  The Cyclones have had a week off to prepare for Bill Snyder's crew, and came within a FG of upsetting Baylor last time in Ames. They'll look to gain a measure of revenge for a 3-point loss in the last meeting and catch a Wildcat squad in-between games with Texas & Oklahoma State.  K-State is one-dimensional on offense and can't stop the pass on defense, and have scored a grand total of just 46 points in three road games this season.  K-State's dominance in Ames ends today in our opinion, and we're grabbing the points with Iowa State, my TKO.

I'm grabbing the points with Pittsburgh on Thursday.  Pitt is one of the few teams on Va Tech's schedule that can out-work them on the offensive line and be more physical than the Hokies up front on defense, where I believe they'll put pressure on the Va Tech passing game.  Pitt is not only 20th in the nation in yards rushing per contest, but they're 5th in defending the run.  If the Hokies are unable to develop an early and consistent running game, I do believe too much of the offense will be placed on the shoulders of QB Jerod Evans.  The Panthers have scored at least 36 points in six straight games and had last weekend off to prep for the Hokies on both sides of the line of scrimmage, while Va Tech was busy with an emotional win over Miami.  Pitt has won the last two meetings, holding VT to a grand total of 35 yards rushing on 55 carries. Meanwhile, Pitt ran for a combined 376 yards on 89 carries.  The Panthers are on a 6-0 ATS run against Va Tech and they're 15-4 ATS at home off a double-digit conference win in their previous game.  I expect Pitt to be too much for the Hokies in the trenches, and I'm taking the points.  Pittsburgh is my Thursday KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Wyoming Cowboys on Saturday night, my MWC Main Event.  Craig Bohl comes from good stock, having both played and coached at Nebraska under Tom Osborne.  He also turned North Dakota State into a FCS giant, winning three straight national titles before taking the job in Laramie.  Now in his third season at Wyoming, you can see things beginning to click.  Wyoming enters Saturday 4-2 on the season as players are buying into Bohl's style.  The Cowboys rocked Air Force last time out, holding the nation's 6th-ranked ground game (275.2 yards per game) to 3.8 yards per carry in a 35-26 Wyoming win as a 13 1/2 point underdog.  That win followed a 38-17 punishing win at Colo State as a 5 1/2 point dog (we had Wyo).  The Cowboys head to Reno with an extra week to prepare and will send their strong running game into battle against Nevada's ultra-weak run defense, ranked 122nd, allowing 251 yards rushing per game.  The Wolf Pack defense is coming off four games where they allowed nearly 5 yards per carry to the anemic offenses of Purdue, Hawaii, Fresno State, and San Jose State.  Only Hawaii has a ground game ranked better than 82nd of that group. Offensively, the Pack scored a grand total of 68 points against those same teams, an average of just 17 ppg.  We point out the defenses in those four contests rank from 105th to 122nd in points allowed per game.  The Pack are just 65th running the football, but that's by far the best thing about their offense.  The problem for Nevada is that Wyoming's defense is at their best against the run.  One more note: The Pack ground game gained just 113 yards on 3.3 yards per carry against SJSU last week, the nation's 113th ranked run defense.  You get the picture.  With a week off to prep, we expect the Wyoming surge under Craig Bohl to continue in an upward direction.  Finally, Wyoming is on a 7-1 ATS run in October football, while the Pack are on a 4-game ATS losing streak. I'm laying the points with Wyoming, my MWC Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Charlotte on Saturday, my Hammer G.O.W.!  Marshall snapped a 4-game losing skid last time out with a 27-21 win (spread loss) over FAU.  The Herd have been underachievers and overrated this entire season, losing outright by 27 points as a 17.5-point favorite to Akron and outright by 17 points as a 13.5-point favorite to North Texas.  Take Morgan State out of the mix and Marshall is not only 0-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, but they lost two of the games outright as mentioned.  Marshall is one-dimensional on offense, ranked 118th passing the football.  Defensively, the Herd is about as bad as it gets in every important category. This is certainly a team that we feel should not be laying more than a TD, let alone, a double-digit fave yet again.  Charlotte can run the football, shorten this game a bit and hang the big number.  I'm grabbing the points with Charlotte, my Conf-USA Hammer GOW.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with TCU on Saturday, my Big-12 DogPound GOM.  The Horned Frogs have had a week off to prep for the undefeated West Virginia Mountaineers and by now, most know that TCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a bye the last three seasons, outscoring the half-dozen opponents by an average of 44-12.  We also expect TCU to find success on the arm of Kenny Hill, who has led his team to the 6th most passing yards per game on the season. TCU heads into this one a tad undervalued.  Yes, they have two marks in the loss column, but they were close defeats, losing in OT to Arkansas and by six points to Oklahoma.  WVU has struggled against the pass this season, ranked 90th in the nation, allowing about 251 yards passing per game.  The schedule has not exactly been daunting and TCU will be the best team they have faced so far this season.  Back to Kenny Hill for a moment -- the TCU signal caller is completing over 63% of his passes and we note that under Dana Holgorsen, the Mountaineers have allowed and average of 41 ppg in 25 outings against teams that complete at least 62% of their passes on the season.  WVU covered just six of those 25 contests.  They're also 0-6 ATS as a home fave of no more than seven points, again allowing a lot of points, 31 ppg in this case.  We love the extra week HC Gary Patterson has had to coach-up his troops and we'll grab the points. TCU is my Big-12 DogPound on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Boise State on Thursday night.  BYU has been in some nail-biters this season with six of their seven games decided by seven or fewer points.  But now the somewhat bad news.  BYU has been out-gained in four of their seven games and the losses to UCLA & West Virginia were not nearly as close as the final scores would indicate.  In fact, they trailed WVU 35-19 in the fourth quarter and the Mountaineers were about to extend before turning the ball over inside the BYU 10-yard line.  The final TD in the loss to UCLA came with roughly 30-seconds left in the contest and the Cougars were held to 273 yards, including 23 yards rushing on 25 carries.  Boise State is a tad undervalued in this one, thanks in part to their close score last week in a 28-23 win over Colorado State.  But the Broncos, while in look-ahead mode, led 28-3 with just over five minutes to go in the game.  Boise's one close-call this season came in a 31-28 win over Washington State.  The Broncos led that one by 17 points in the fourth quarter. And we all know just how well Wazzu has played since then, winning four in a row.  BSU is one of the top passing teams in college football and will face a BYU defense ranked 100th in defending the pass.  At the same time, the Cougar passing game has left a lot to be desired in their new offense under 1st year HC Kalani Sitake.  Boise enters on a 7-2 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record and we're backing them here.  I'm laying the points with Boise State, my Thursday Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Buffalo, my Top Shocker. Ball State will enter this one off three straight hard-fought, down to the wire affairs. That in itself is tough to shake, along with the fact they don't own a reliable passing attack, while their pass defense is 105th in the nation. Buffalo has been improving against same level opposition this season and remember, they did knock off a good Army team just a few weeks ago. Last week was a step back when they lost to Kent State, but we expect a highly competitive game that goes down the wire, making the double digits worth taking. I'm grabbing the points with Buffalo, my Top Shocker.

I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Underdog Hammer. Florida State has had their troubles with the Demon Deacons and aren't in the best spot to face them this week, especially laying around 3 TDs. FSU QB Deondre Francois (shoulder) is expected to play, but he and several other key Seminole players are a bit banged-up following close games with North Carolina and Miami. The 'Noles would like to get it going on the ground, but Wake is 24th in the nation defending the run. Last season, Wake covered against Clemson, Louisville, Notre Dame, and these Florida State Seminoles. WF enters on a 4-1 ATS road run, while the Seminoles have covered just 8 of their last 26 following a SU win. I'm grabbing the points with Wake Forest, my Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon.  Alabama has won four straight at Tennessee, doing so by scores of 34-20, 44-13, 41-10, and 29-9.  Saban will have no trouble getting his team's focus for another trip to the Volunteer State after a close, 19-14 win at home a season ago.  The Tide are also "catching" Tennessee at the right time.  The Vols are off five close calls in their first six games.  Even the win over Ohio U. was a 2-point game in the fourth quarter before the Vols won 28-19.  UT's 45-24 win over Va Tech is misleading when you consider Tennessee trailed 14-0 and had been outgained 193-6 until the Hokies lost the handle on the ball, losing five fumbles.  Tennessee is allowing 34.7 ppg in SEC play this season.  The defense is a mess with injuries and they were already ranked 86th against the pass.  We note that Tennessee enters on a 2-10 ATS slide at home after allowing 31 or more points in back-to-back games.  Offensively, Alabama should have little trouble flexing their muscle throughout this one, including wearing down the depleted Vols' defense over the final two quarters.  Jalen Hurts is averaging over 250 total yards per game and RB Damien Harris is familiar with topping 100 yards on the ground.  The Tide are balanced on offense and average nearly 45 ppg.  Last week against Arkansas, Alabama rushed for 264 yards on 7.8 yards per carry...a solid warm-up for this week's game.  Defensively, the Tide are as stingy as ever, allowing less than 16 ppg and Tennessee has covered just 6 of their last 25 at home against teams that allow no more than 17 ppg.  Bama will face a Tennessee offense averaging nearly 3 turnovers per game, an important note because CFB road teams are on a 53-21 ATS run against home teams that average at least 2.5 tpg, provided they're off a game where they committed at least four turnovers. The Tide enter on a 9-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 6-1 ATS run at Tennessee. Finally, Alabama is on a 6-0 ATS run on the road against defenses that allow at least 58% passing, winning those six games by an average score of 38-14!  I'm laying the points with Alabama over a worn-out Tennessee team, my SEC Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan, my DogPound release. The Eagles have been undervalued all season, having covered four straight and five of six this season, overall. It's an improved team on both sides of the ball with a decent passing game and a defense that has played well against the run, ranked 48th in the nation. You must be able to slow the run if you wish to hang with or beat Ohio. I do believe EMU can force the Bobcats to throw more than they wish to and also look for the Eagles to exploit Ohio's weak pass defense, at least enough to hang this number. I'm grabbing the points with Eastern Michigan, my DogPound release.

I'm taking the points with Virginia, my Knockout release.  If you can remotely pass the football, you're likely to put together consistent drives against the Pitt Panthers.  Pittsburgh rolls into Charlottesville with the nation's 125th-ranked pass defense, allowing over 300 yards passing per game.  The run defense isn't as good as the numbers would indicate because no one really needs to spend much time on the ground.  Virginia does own the passing attack to make the Panthers pay for their inauspicious ways.  The Cavaliers rank 28th in the nation, averaging over 290 yards passing per contest.  QB Kurt Benkert has four receivers averaging between 18 and 26 receptions on the season and he has underneath and long distance targets at his disposal.  Defensively, UVA's weakness at times has been their own pass defense, but Pitt's passing offense (102nd) is almost as weak as their defense.  Pitt wants to run the football, but UVA is at their defensive best against the run.  They aren't top-10 by any means, but they're not bad, especially when facing a team that doesn't make defenses stay honest.  And while Pitt enters on a 1-7 ATS slide, the Cavaliers are on a 7-0 ATS run in ACC action.  I'm grabbing the points with Virginia on Saturday, my First Release Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with SDSU on Friday, our Beatdown release.  This one plays out as an old fashioned smash mouth matchup that we believe will translate onto the field.  SDSU owns arguably the best RB west of the Mississippi, in Donnel Pumphrey, who has already rushed for 891 yards on 6.9 yards per carry with 9 rushing TDs. This after topping 1,600 yards rushing each of the last two seasons.  Pumphrey and the Aztecs will face a Fresno State defense ranked 126th in the nation, allowing over 273 yards rushing per game.  The Bulldogs can't run the ball either, where they rank 113th and the best part about SDSU's defense is the way they stop the run.  SDSU has a shot at an 11-1 season if they win out, beating their final seven opponents and it all starts on Friday in Fresno.  The Aztecs enter on a 9-1-1 ATS run against teams with a losing record.  They're on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and the chalk in this series has cashed four straight times.  I'm laying the points with San Diego State, my Friday Beatdown. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Stanford on Saturday night.  We played on Washington and against Stanford last weekend and cashed an easy one, but we saw that coming in our handicap and it came to fruition.  A lot of folks are now bailing on David Shaw's Cardinal, but not us.  Stanford has been "money" off a SU loss, going 9-1 ATS the last 10 times.  They're also on a 13-3 ATS winning run after being held to less than 20 points.  When David Shaw teams slip-up, they have refocused in a hurry.  We expect nothing less in this one.  The Cougar defense ought to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Christian McCaffrey and company to get right back on track after a couple of tough outings.  Washington State's run defense numbers are a little fraudulent because everyone passes the heck out of the Cougar secondary.  I don't believe Stanford QB Ryan Burns will face the kind of heat he felt against Washington.  And while his numbers are not spectacular, Burns has been efficient in 2016 and he may be primed for his best outing of the season against the nation's 112th-ranked pass defense.  Stanford has won eight straight in this series and won 34-17 "on the farm" last time here in 2014.  I expect more of the same in this one.  Wazzu allowed 45, 31, and 33 points to EWU, Boise, and Oregon.  I expect Stanford to be too much for them in this one.  I'm laying the points with Stanford, my Bailout Blowout. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Solid spot for an undervalued Va Tech football team.  Not only do the Hokies catch UNC off a last-second win over Florida State, but they have a road date with undefeated Miami up next.  Our problem with UNC is that they're one-dimensional on both offense and defense.  They rank 101st in the nation in yards rushing per game and 116th defending the run.  Va Tech brings one of the top defenses in college football and the offense can run and pass, averaging 196 yards per game on the ground and 254 yards per game through the air.  Va Tech is 3-1 SU on the season, outscoring their last two opponents (Boston College & East Carolina) by a combined 103-17. The lone loss to Tennessee was misleading. Va Tech jumped out to a 14-0 lead and had outgained the Vols 193-6 with about two minutes to go in the opening quarter. Unfortunately, Va Tech then turned it over no less than five times over the final 3 quarters, (all fumbles), driving the nails in their own coffin. The Hokies have not committed a single fumble in their last two games and we expect they'll gain a measure of revenge for last year's 30-27 overtime loss.  We note that CFB road teams with a +3/-3 line range are on a 39-12 ATS run, provided they average at least 35 ppg and are off a win by at least 17 points in their most recent game.  I'm taking the points with Virginia Tech, my Revenge GOM. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Army on Saturday.  Army looked well on their way to a 4-0 start two weeks ago, before blowing a 20-6 lead with 9 minutes left in the fourth quarter and losing 23-20 in OT. Army outgained Buffalo 444-265, including a 396-87 rushing advantage (5.9 yards per carry), but they couldn't overcome a pair of missed FGs and a turnover at their own 23-yard line that led to a Bulls' TD.  The nation's #1 ranked rushing attack has had two weeks to prep for Duke's stop unit.  But Army is more than an offensive ground game.  The Cadet defense is doing their part and more, ranked 11th against the run and 19th against the pass.  They'll face a Duke offense that's been one-dimensional, struggling to find a consistent ground game.  Duke is about to find out this is a much different opponent than the one they beat 44-3 last season.  We note that CFB road teams are on a 40-14 ATS run if they gain at least 1.75 yards per carry more than they allow, provided they out-rushed their most recent opponent by at least 200 yards.  And while Army enters on a 5-1 ATS run, Duke has covered just two of their last 12 as home chalk of 3 1/2 to 7 points. I'm backing Army plus the points, my non-conference DogPound GOM.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Minnesota on Saturday.  Both teams are coming off a loss, but these two programs have reacted differently when in this situation. While the Hawkeyes have gone into a shell off of SU losses, going 0-4 ATS the last four times, the Gophers have rebounded, covering six in a row. Minnesota has been a conference money-maker, currently on a 17-5-1 ATS run in Big-10 play. And of course, they're in revenge mode after losing 40-35 to Iowa last season.  The Hawks offense has been pathetic since the loss to North Dakota State.  Even in last week's loss to Northwestern, where Iowa scored 31 points, the offense, ranked 110th in the nation, gained just 289 total yards.  Minnesota runs well and they stop the run and we expect more of the same in this one.  I'm backing Minnesota, my Morning Massacre. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with New Mexico on Friday night.  Boise State's struggles against option attacks are well documented, including tough outings against Air Force and UNM over the last few seasons.  In fact, the Lobos beat the Broncos outright in Boise last season.  And we note that conference revenge has been over-hyped as Boise State enters tonight's game just 1-6 ATS in their last seven in this situation.  New Mexico is on a 5-0 ATS run in this series and 6-0 ATS against good run defenses, those allowing no more than 120 yards rushing per game.  UNM has averaged 33 ppg in those six contests.  I'm grabbing the points with New Mexico, my Friday night Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Wyoming on Saturday.  We really like this spot for the Cowboys after going against them last Friday and cashing with Eastern Michigan.  HC Craig Bohl is slowly turning this program around, while Colorado State is down in 2016.  CSU's two wins came in a close on against UTSA and against Northern Colorado. The Rams can't throw the football and rank 93rd in total offense.  Look for Wyoming to shock the Rams...we're taking the points with the Wyoming Cowboys, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Clemson, my ACC Game of the Week.  The Tigers have yet to "unleash" Deshaun Watson, the preseason Heisman favorite.  I expect that to change this week. And Watson will not only use his feet more in this game, but I don't believe Louisville will be able to keep Ray-Ray McCloud, Artavis Scott, and Mike Williams under wraps.  The three have a combined 57 receptions for 701 yards and 3 TDs.  All that and we haven't even mentioned RB Wayne Gallman yet.  Clemson's defense will be the most athletic and quickest Louisville will have seen all season and will do enough to slow the Cardinals' offense en route to the win. The Tigers have held their 2016 opponents to 126 yards passing per game and 93 yards rushing per game, while allowing just 11 ppg.  We note that Louisville has covered just four of their last 20 against teams that allow no more than 150 yards passing per game.  And under Dabo Swiney, the Tigers are 23-13 ATS against teams that average at least 31 ppg.  The adjustment has been too high in this one.  I'm taking the points with Clemson, my ACC Hammer GOW. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between Utah & California on Saturday.  We played against Cal last week and cashed a wild one with Arizona State.  The teams were playing a "normal" brand of football through three quarters before they combined for 55 points in the fourth. It wasn't just a case of offense and bad defense, with turnovers and special teams playing a big part.  But I expect the defense of Utah to dictate the pace in this one.  The Utes rank 28th against the pass and 23rd in overall defense.  Utah's offense will also provide a more traditional attack, again, helping them control the tempo and keeping the Cal offense on the sideline a little more than normal.  Despite all the craziness, the Bears enter on a 9-3 Under run in Pac-12 play, while the Utes are on a 21-6 Under run off a Pac-12 win by no more than seven points. The average total in Utah's four games this season is 46.25 and this one is nearly 20 points higher.  Last year's meeting saw 54 combined points scored. I expect more of the same.  I'm playing the Under between Utah & Cal, my Total Dominator.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Michigan on Saturday night.  We felt the Badgers were in a bit of a rebuilding mode before this season began.  We didn't believe Wiscy would be undefeated after four weeks of play.  We were wrong in that regard.  However, due to LSU and Michigan State being down on the offensive side of the football, and the fact they made plenty of unforced mistakes in some cases, we haven't raised Wisconsin's power rating as much as one would think.  We have however, begun to raise Michigan's and have them firmly in our top-10 in power ratings with a serious shot at a CFB playoff appearance at season's end.  And the balanced offense, which averages 52 ppg is the best thing, by far, the Badger defense will have faced.  Wisconsin will have to play "keep-up" in our opinion and we don't believe they have the offense or the QB to do so against the extremely athletic Wolverines' stop unit.  Jim Harbaugh-coached teams are 26-13 ATS as chalk, outscoring the 39 opponents by an average final score of 37-15.  I'm laying the points with Michigan, my Big-10 Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kent State on Saturday afternoon.  Greg Bollas is expected to get the start at QB for the Flashes on Saturday and that's fine by us.  Bollas runs well from the signal-caller position and the Kent offense will face one of their easier tasks so far this season, taking on an Akron defense that ranks 126th against the pass, 123rd in total yards allowed, and gives up 40 ppg.  And oh by the way, their best stat (run defense) ranks 95th in the nation.  One of the problems for the Zips as the season progresses is going to be a defense that spends too much time on the field. Akron opponents are averaging roughly 37 minutes of possession time per game against the Zips and even VMI held onto the football for more than 36 minutes.  Kent State should be able to take full advantage and has already faced Penn State & Alabama on the road as they toughened-up before MAC action.  The Flashes have been strong against the pass this season, which helps against the Zips, who are one-dimensional, able to pass, but ranked 107th in yards rushing per contest.  Akron is just 1-9 ATS following a game where they and their opponent combined for 80 or more points, while the home team in this series is on an 8-3 ATS run.  Revenge will be on the agenda for the Golden Flashes and I'm taking the points with Kent State, my DogPound play on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Washington on Friday night.  The Huskies struggled to an OT win over Arizona last week, with a little look-ahead to this week's home game with Stanford. Washington gained 512 yards and ran for 6.9 yards per carry, but they couldn't shake the Wildcats, due in part to turnovers. Washington turned it over on downs at the Wildcats' 28, QB Jake Browning threw an INT at the Arizona one-yard line, and the Huskies suffered a missed FGA, leaving a potential of 17 points off the scoreboard.  We note that despite the INT, Browning is connecting on 70.5% of his passes, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, with 14 TD passes and just 2 INTs.  The defense will need to shore-up some issues from the weekend in Arizona, but still ranks 22nd in yards passing allowed per game and 26th in total yards allowed per game.  We believe the "U-Dub" stop-unit is for real and will prove it on Friday. Stanford was quite fortunate to beat UCLA over the weekend.  The Cardinal trailed 13-9 before scoring a go-ahead TD with :24 left in the game. They then added a 58-yard fumble return for a TD with :04 left, for a miracle cover.  Stanford is still struggling in the passing game, where they rank 122nd in the nation, and they're 109th in total yards per game.  Meanwhile, they're 77th defending the pass.  Washington owns the defense to stop the one-dimensional Cardinal offense.  I'm laying the points with Washington, my Friday night Smash Game of the Month. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona State on Saturday night (9/24).  ASU will look to exact revenge for last year's last-second loss at Cal.  The Sun Devils led the game by as many as 17 points and looked in control at least twice in the second half.  But the Cal Bears, led by current rookie-NFL QB Jared Goff put PK Matt Anderson in place for a 26-yard, game-winning field goal as time ran out in the fourth quarter, for a 48-46 Cal win. The QBs are different for both teams in this one and I expect Sun Devils' signal caller Manny Wilkins to be the difference.  Wilkins has connected on 66% of his passes, while averaging 8.4 yards per pass on the season, but he also beats teams with his legs, rushing for 191 yards on nearly 6 yards per carry.  The ASU offense has posted 144 points in three games, showing fantastic balance, averaging 265 yards passing and 260 yards rushing per contest.  ASU is off a mistake-filled win over UTSA, outgaining the Roadrunners 469-322, but allowing UTSA to hang around thanks to a minus-3 turnover ratio.  Cal is off back-to-back barn-burners, beating Texas 50-43 after a 45-40 loss to San Diego State.  The Bears' defense has been torched for 504.3 yards per game (118th in NCAA).  Meanwhile, the offense, unlike ASU, is one-dimensional, ranked second through the air, but 106th on the ground.  ASU has covered five straight home games and they're 9-2 ATS under HC Graham against teams allowing at least 425 yards per game.  ASU averaged 47 ppg in those 11 contests.  I'm laying the points with Arizona State, my Knockout on Saturday night. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UCLA on Saturday night.  Stanford will attempt to do what they have done best under HC David Shaw -- muscle UCLA in the trenches.  But the Bruins have been attempting to follow the Cardinal model and while they aren't quite as physical as they hope to be soon, they do own the much better QB and passing game in this one.  Stanford has Christian McCaffrey, but UCLA does have a pair of capable RBs.  And the Cardinal enter with the nation's 120th-ranked passing game, while the defense is 83rd against the pass.  UCLA's defense held a physical BYU offense to 182 yards and seven points until the Cougars, "meaningless" final drive of the game.  I do believe they'll hold the one-dimensional Cardinal offense in-check on Saturday. I'm backing UCLA.  I do believe they'll snap their 8-game series losing streak.  I'm taking the points with UCLA, my DogPound GOW.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Lafayette.  I like the way Anthony Jennings, the UL-L QB is progressing...remember, he was at LSU for a couple of seasons before transferring.  Maybe it's something in the water, because he only connected on 49% of his passes in his final season in Baton Rouge, but Jennings has completed 68% of his passes this season and almost 8 yards per attempt and he does have decent escapability. Meanwhile, no one is slowing down RB Elijah McGuire, who's averaged 7.3 yards or more per carry in 3 of 4 seasons, and he's looking for his third straight thousand-yard rushing season.  Tulane's offense is completely one-dimension.  The Green Wave's passing game is non-existent and they've scored just 17 points combined against Wake Forest & Navy.  I'm grabbing the points with UL-Lafayette, my Saturday Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with West Virginia on Saturday afternoon.  The situation BYU is in is reminiscent of their 2015 season.  BYU is in off of three straight, down to the wire contests, just like they were when they traveled to Ann Arbor last year.  BYU had nothing left in the tank and it showed in a 31-0 Wolverines win as a TD favorite.  This time the Cougars make a trip to Landover, MD., off a last-second 18-16 win over Arizona in week-one, a 20-19 hard-fought loss at Utah, and a 17-14 loss to UCLA.  The loss to the Bruins wasn't quite as close as the score would indicate.  Until a last-minute, "meaningless" drive for a TD, the Cougars had a total of just 182 yards and seven points.  WVU has piled-up the yardage in their first two games, are loaded at the skill positions, and should find a weary BYU defense on the other side of the line of scrimmage, much like Michigan found last year.  We note that teams are just 11-35 ATS if they are averaging no more than 17 ppg and are off a loss by no more than three points.  I'm laying the points with West Virginia, my Blowout GOM.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Eastern Michigan on Friday night.  Wyoming will look to avenge last year's 48-29 loss in Laramie and while HC Craig Bohl is beginning to turn things around for the Cowboys' program, we believe the defense will be over-matched against the Eagles' undervalued pass offense.  Todd Porter is getting it done through the air and he will face Wyoming's weakness, their 118th-ranked pass defense.  And let's not forget those 310 yards passing per game allowed came against Northern Illinois, Nebraska, and UC-Davis, none of which are going to frighten teams with their passing games.  EMU rolled-up 506 yards, including 330 through the air in last year's win and I expect another victory in this one.  I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan, my Friday night Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oklahoma Sooners in Saturday's marquee clash with Ohio State. This is the spot where I believe the Buckeyes' defense will pay for their lack of starting experience. DT is the weakness (relatively speaking) for OSU and Oklahoma's strength includes taking their offense right to an interior defensive line. We're also getting a ton of line value. Oklahoma was a 4 1/2-point favorite over OSU the week before losing to Houston. Too much an adjustment in our opinion. I'm backing Oklahoma, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the USC Trojans on Saturday night. Getting crushed by Alabama was no shocker, USC had plenty working against them, including Nick Saban looking to punish USC for their treatment of current Alabama OC Lane Kiffin. But the Trojans bounced back well with a 45-7 win over Utah State, showing no hangover effect, and not doubting what they're attempting to accomplish. They'll now take on a Stanford team that I believe is overvalued in this game. The Trojans have shutdown and play-making ability at CB, allowing the front-seven to harass Stanford QB Ryan Burns. USC also owns the offensive line to keep Stanford's defensive front off-kilter enough to keep this contest close until the end. We're grabbing the points with USC, our Pac-12 Dog of the Week. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Southern Miss on Saturday.  This marks the second time in three weeks we'll have backed the boys from Hattiesburg.  We had them in week-one and cashed when they not only covered at Kentucky, but won outright, 44-35.  The Golden Eagles probably would have won by a bigger margin if not for a lot of unforced miscues in the first half.  But they came from behind and showed everyone why we backed them.  Southern Miss heads into Saturday with a chance at a 3-0 start and we feel they'll pull away from Troy after intermission.  Troy gave it their all and almost shocked the college football world with their near miss against a Clemson team that obviously had overlooked the Trojans.  That game itself, will help So. Miss. HC Jay Hopson keep his squad focused throughout.  QB Nick Mullens is back and leads the best offensive backfield in Conference-USA. Hopson is able to focus on the defense, thanks to offensive-minded assistants. So. Miss. averaged nearly 7 yards per play and almost 40 ppg last season. Even with a few new faces, including a pair of new starters at OT, the Golden Eagles' offense has not missed a beat in 2016. Southern Miss is 5-0-1 in their last six September games and they're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Texas State on Saturday. Tough spot for Arkansas when it comes to finding motivation to cover more than a 4-TD spread over Texas State. The Hogs are off the big road win over TCU and have a date at Texas A&M up next. TSU is an underrated squad this season as the Ohio Bobcats found out two weeks ago. Texas State won outright in OT as a 17 point underdog. QB Tyler Jones completed 40 of 55 passes for 418 yards, 4 TDs & 2 INTs, while four receivers caught between six and 10 passes. TSU has had two weeks to prep for this one and again Arkansas is in a tough sandwich spot. They'll win, but we'll bet they don't cover the big number. I'm taking the points with Texas State, my Top Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon.  The Huskies are off to a tough start, losing in OT at Wyoming, followed by a loss at South Florida.  The Huskies were in a tough spot last week in Tampa coming off a game in Laramie, Wyoming that ended around 4:30 AM ET on a Sunday morning thanks to a long weather delay.  QB Drew Hare is expected to miss the home opener with an ankle injury, but backup Ryan Graham is expected to start.  There isn't a big drop-off to Graham, at least not as much as the line would indicate. Graham is a decent passer and he owns the ability to escape pressure and use his feet to gain yardage on the ground. SDSU is off a big home win over Cal, but the defense looked highly susceptible.  The Aztecs won 45-40, failing to cover, while be out-gained 604-463.  Cal finished the game with 30 first downs on the Aztec defense.  We expect an overvalued SDSU squad to struggle to catch this week's spread against an undervalued NIU squad.  Last week was a rarity as the Aztecs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conf games.  They're also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games following a non-conf game.  SDSU was outscored by an average margin of 12 ppg in those 11 outings. I'm grabbing the points with Northern Illinois, my DogPound on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Miami-Florida on Saturday.  Appalachian State was impressive when they gave highly ranked Tennessee a scare.  But Tennessee overlooked the Mountaineers, something Hurricanes' HC Mark Richt will use to keep his team motivated and focused on the task at hand. Also, the 'Canes have nothing standing in the way of complete focus with a bye week on deck. Miami has not only tuned-up their experienced offense in their first two games, (albeit against out-manned opponents), but they have also played a very stingy brand of defense.  We believe Miami's pedigree and talent will wear down ASU in the second half.  The Mountaineers have jumped out fast in each of their first two games, but have scored a grand total of seven second half points, failing to score against the Vols, while scoring one TD after intermission in a 31-7 win over Old Dominion.  The offensive line has new faces and should struggle here against a solid defensive front seven.  Mark Richt-coached teams are 21-9 ATS on the road after holding their previous two opponents to no more than 17 points each.  Meanwhile, ASU is on a 0-5 ATS slide after a SU win. Finally, and more importantly, my ratings make Miami 8 points better than ASU at this venue.  I'm backing Miami, my Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with (387) UNLV on Saturday night.  UCLA is in off an incredibly tough season-opening loss at Texas A&M.  The Bruin defense was not only punished up front in a physical manner, but it was also a highly emotional contest.  UCLA also has little motivation in this one, at least to cover a near 4-TD spread, with a game at BYU on deck.  The Pac-12 entry was chewed-up on the ground last week and UNLV can open up holes with their ground game.  The Rebels won 63-13 last week and it could have been worse. Yes it was against a bad Jackson State program, but you'll recall last season when the Rebels played Michigan in the "Big House" and kept the game close, losing 28-7, while getting 32 points. UNLV held Michigan to seven points after halftime. This is a better UNLV squad with a true QB at the helm in Johnny Stanton, a Nebraska-transfer. This is a big number for a beat-up UCLA squad to be laying and while they'll win outright, I'm betting they won't cover the spread.  I'm grabbing the points with UNLV on Saturday, my DogPound GOW. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

Nothing like overreaction!  Wisconsin catches LSU in a 16-14 upset win and they go from being unranked to 10th in this week's AP poll.  Let's call it like it was.  LSU still has massive issues at QB and Wiscy loaded-up the line of scrimmage.  The offense is weak, though, and this week, they'll actually face a more competent passer in Akron QB Thomas Woodson.  The Zips made a ton of unforced miscues in their season opener, but put it all together with a big fourth quarter.  This week, they catch Wiscy at the right time and we'll grab the points. Road dogs of more than 21 points are on a 48-19 ATS run, provided they outgained their previous opponent by at least 175 yards. Akron, plus the points, my Value Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with (#333) Tulsa on Saturday afternoon.  I expect Ohio State to score their share of points in this one, but the young an inexperienced Buckeye defense, with only three returning starters, should be hard-pressed to hold Tulsa's offense in-check.  The Golden Hurricane crushed SJSU 45-10 last week as a short favorite, outgaining the Spartans 512 to 287.  While this is a big step up in class (obviously) the Tulsa offense is for real.  Tulsa is led by Phillip Montgomery, the former OC at Baylor. Seven starters return to an offense that averaged 37 ppg last season, including QB Dane Evans, and excellent skill personnel, despite losing their top receiver. So again, I do expect OSU to score quite a few points.  But I also expect a decent amount from Tulsa, leading to the cover.  The undervalued Golden Hurricane are on a 10-1 ATS run on the road and catch Ohio State in a potential look-ahead with a game at Oklahoma up next for the Buckeyes. Finally, road dogs of more than 21 points are on a 34-10 ATS run if they outgained their opponent by at least 225 yards in their previous game. We're grabbing the points with Tulsa, our Non-Conf Shocker of the Month.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing (311) Ohio University; (321) Cincinnati; and (329) Akron.  The Ohio Bobcats suffered what may seem like an embarrassing home loss last weekend to Texas State, but TSU was an underrated squad.  No, Ohio should not have lost the game outright, but it was apparent they weren't well prepared between the ears.  There were still positives to be taken from the game, including an offense that rolled-up 630 total yards, 5 yards per carry on the ground, and a 380 yard, 4 TD, 0 INT, performance from QB Greg Windham.  Kansas beat Rhode Island last week, as they should have.  After all, the game with URI is the main reason KU's win total at the books was 1 1/2 before the season kicked off.  Jayhawk fans stormed the field after a win over the lowly Rams, but not this week.  KU should not be favored.  We'll grab the points with Ohio, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Cincinnati, my Morning Massacre.  Purdue beat Eastern Kentucky last week and everyone around Big-10 country are talking about the new, uptempo Boilermaker offense. But they were supposed to beat EKU, and the win wasn't all that impressive. Purdue, a 3 TD favorite led by just 10 points early in the fourth quarter before pulling away.  The defense allowed nearly 400 yards of offense. Look for Cincy to get back on track after a sluggish outing in week-one. Tommy Tuberville-coached teams are on a 16-5 ATS run as a road fave of seven or less, while the Boilermakers are on a 1-8 ATS slide at home after playing a home game, allowing over 36 ppg.  I'm laying the points with Cincy, my Morning Massacre.  The Cincinnati Bearcats are my Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night.  As we saw last week, nothing wrong with the Louisville offense and QB Lamar Jackson, who was a terrific value at 100:1 to win the Heisman just a couple months ago.  But it's not just about Jackson.  The Cardinals are loaded at the skill positions, including RB and an outstanding WR corps.  Syracuse will be hard-pressed to hold this squad in check.  At the same time, I expect the Orange to put up their share of points sending this game over the posted total. Syracuse has eight starters back on offense from last season.  HC Dino Babers operates an uptempo passing attack, but again, the Cardinals' offense should find holes in the Syracuse Tampa-2 defense.  We should note that the Over is 41-13 when the total is 63 or higher, and at least one team (Syracuse) allowed at least a 58% completion rate the season before and held their most recent opponent to no more than 5 1/2 yards per attempt. And while Louisville is on a 5-1 Over run, the, the Orange have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 13 games. More of the same.  I'm playing the Over between Louisville & Syracuse on Friday night, my OU Dominator.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn on Saturday, Sept. 3. Home underdogs getting 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 32-8 ATS winning run in non-conference action, provided they played better than .500 football the previous season. The Auburn Tigers fit the bill. More importantly, Auburn fits the kind of team I like to play early in a college football season. I like to look for top shelf programs that failed to meet the hype the previous season, return a lot of top notch talent the current season, yet are receiving very little hype, relatively speaking. That's the case with the Auburn Tigers as they head into 2016. They're an undervalued football team off of two subpar seasons, getting plenty of points against a talented Clemson squad, but one that's over-valued a bit in this opener. Clemson has had their problems covering spreads on the road, dropping six of their last eight ATS. And while Sean White is expected to get the start for Auburn, we expect HC Gus Malzahn to use three QBs, making preparation a little tougher on the Clemson defense. Clemson lost over 73% of its sack production as reported, and Auburn should also be able to run the football. I expect Auburn to hang this number at the least. I'm taking the points with the Auburn Tigers, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with LSU on Saturday.  First things first -- Leonard Fournette is expected to play and according to Les Miles, he won't be limited due to an ankle injury suffered earlier. Fournette will operate behind an offensive line with three returning starters and plenty of tested depth.  The key to LSU's chances at a CFB final four appearance will be the passing game.  I expect to see more from Brandon Harris this season, beginning with this game, against a beatable and somewhat young Wisconsin secondary.  The Badgers' defense was no match for another SEC opponent to begin last season, when Alabama not only beat Wiscy 35-17, but gained 6.4 yards per carry, while outgaining the Baders 502 to 268, overall.  Gone from Wiscy's offense are QB Joel Stave and the team's leading WR.  Corey Clement is back from injury at RB and while the offensive line returns four starters, I expect the Badger offense to struggle against the LSU 3-4 defense.  New LSU DC and former Wisconsin DC, Dave Aranda inherits a ton of physical and speedy talent with the Tiger defense.  I believe they'll stuff the run, putting pressure on the Wisconsin so-so passing game, and cruise to the win and cover.  Finally, teams that averaged at least 200 yards rushing the previous season are on a 42-12 ATS run in games one through four of the current season, provided they return at least four starters and their QB and the opponent is breaking in a new starter at QB.  I'm laying the points with LSU, my Knockout release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Lafayette on Saturday (12 noon ET).  The Rajin' Cajuns are looking at a bounce-back season.  UL-L finished last season with just four wins, following a 2014 campaign where they won nine games, including a 13-point bowl win over Nevada.  They are a big home dog in this one with Boise State receiving plenty of hype heading into the season.  But while the Bronco offense owns plenty of talent, the defense has a lot of work to do to get to where they hope to be.  Boise is replacing six starters, including the entire defensive line.  Most of those returning up front didn't get a lot of quality playing time last season.  The inexperienced defensive front will face a UL-L offensive line with everyone back.  They're a strong run-blocking unit and have one of the best RBs Boise will face all season in Elijah McGuire.  I do believe UL-L will be able to control the Boise defense in the trenches.  At the same time, the Cajuns have three defenders with All Sun Belt first team potential.  BSU QB Brett Rypien and his fine group of receivers should be in for a big year and they should win this game outright.  But covering a near 3-TD spread is another story.  The Rajin' Cajuns have covered 18 of 27 as a dog under HC Mark Hudspeth, averaging over 26 ppg in those 27 games.  I believe they'll hang the number again.  I'm taking the points with UL-Lafayette, my Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Ball State on Friday night.  A shot at exacting a little revenge for the Cardinals after a 12-point loss to GSU last season. Ball State out-rushed the Panthers by 113 yards, holding GSU to 41 yards on 29 carries.  But they couldn't overcome their deficiencies against the pass, nor could they handle GSU QB Nick Arbuckle (28-38, 412 yards, 1 TD). But Arbuckle is no longer behind center and there's a significant drop-off as we kick-off the new season.  Ball State does return nine of 11 defensive starters and we should note (a well reported situation, but not one of my originals) that underdogs of more than 3 points but less than 10 1/2 points are on a 35-11 ATS run during the first month of the season, provided they're returning at least nine starters after allowing at least a 58% completion rate the previous season.  We also have a nice edge at the QB position with Riley Neal owning a big-time arm.  We'll grab the points with Ball State, our Friday night Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Oregon on Saturday. We liked the Ducks at +1 when Boykin was expected to start for TCU. Even though the line is now as high as it is, with Boykin's absence, we still side with the Ducks as a play. TCU will rely on senior QB Bram Kolhausen or freshman QB Forest Sawyer. The two have combined for a grand total of 69 pass attempts this season, completing just 37, with 5 TD passes and 4 INTs. That's in comparison to Boykin's 31 TDs, 10 INTs, and 65% completion rate. There's obviously no way to make-up for Boykin's running ability nor his know-how. Another issue, neither QB will have the team's top receiver to throw to with Josh Doctson ruled out of the game (wrist). He nearly doubled the amount of receptions over TCU's second best receiver and more than doubled the next receiver's yardage. Aaron Greene has had a strong season running the football for the Horned Frogs, but he's thrust into the role of the main "player" at this point for TCU, taking on a different role than he's used to. I expect Oregon to pull away in this one with TCU's inability to "keep up." TCU has covered just one of its last six bowls, while the Ducks enter on a 4-1 ATS bowl run. I'm laying the points with the Oregon Ducks, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Stanford. Motivation is obviously a key part of the bowl handicap. In this case, we've seen an interested Cardinal team as they prepped for the Rose Bowl. Iowa, on the other hand, had high hopes of participating in college football's four-team playoffs, going undefeated until their final game of the season, the loss to Michigan State in the Big-10 title game. I am not one to play on a bowl team if they suffered their first loss of the season in their final game. Iowa must develop an early effective ground game if they're going to hang in this one. Stanford was as flat as can be in their season opening loss at Northwestern. But the Cardinal have scored 30 or more points in 12 straight games, including 35 or more nine times. Christian McCaffrey is a matchup nightmare for the Hawkeyes and he's not the only dangerous offensive performer for the Cardinal. QB Kevin Hogan has had a tremendous year, connecting on nearly 69% of his passes with 24 TDs and just 7 INTs. Five receivers have at least 248 yards receiving on the season and no less than 11 players have been on the receiving end of a Hogan TD pass in 2015. Meanwhile, the Iowa defense is middle of the pack against the pass, while the offense is one-dimensional, finishing the regular season ranked 89th in the passing game. Stanford has covered five of their last six bowl games and they're on a 12-4 ATS run, overall. The Pac-12 entry is 9-1 ATS under David Shaw after gaining at least 6.25 yards per play in two straight games, a true momentum team. They outscored those 10 opponents by an average margin of 24 ppg. I'm laying the points with Stanford, my New Year Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northwestern on Friday. By now, those who have followed me know how much I like to back bowl teams that can run the football and stop the run. Northwestern does both incredibly well, averaging 193.2 yards rushing per game. Tennessee ranks 20th on the ground. But Northwestern stops the run (and the pass) like few others. The Wildcats rank 13th against the run, 26th defending the pass, and 11th in the nation overall, allowing just 310.5 yards per game. The Vols, meanwhile, are a little better than middle of the pack against both the run and pass. Northwestern won their first five games of the season and their final five games, losing to Michigan & Iowa in the middle. In fact, the Wildcats went 6-2 SU against bowl teams this season, including a 16-6 win over Stanford and a 13-7 road win at Wisconsin. The defense slammed the door over the final four games of the season, holding the opposition to 14 ppg. Tennessee didn't exactly look bowl bound with a 3-4 SU record through their first seven games. They won their final five games though, but none of the five wins came against teams playing in the postseason. The Vols played just six bowl teams this season, losing four. The passing game will be needed against the Wildcat defense and Tennessee would rather hand the ball off to Jalen Heard. After all, the passing game ranks 94th in the nation. Northwestern isn't likely to pile-up passing yardage either, but I do expect the offense to find more success than Tennessee's, based in part on the Wildcats' edge on the defensive side of the football. And besides their current 4-1 ATS run, the 'Cats are 46-27 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. I'm grabbing the points with Northwestern, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Michigan State. 35 sacks! That's a stat we must mention in the handicap of this game. Michigan State's defense tallied all of those sacks thanks to intelligent defensive coaching, mixing several zone-blitz looks. Alabama QB Jake Coker has played above expectations, but I do believe he's going to have enough trouble against the Spartan defense to keep this one inside the number. He also might not get the same comfort-zone to pass in if the Spartans can keep Tide RB Derrick Henry from busting loose and keeping MSU honest. Remember, the Spartans were the only team to hold Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott in check, holding the Buckeye star to 33 yards on 12 carries, virtually eliminating him from Heisman contention. Some find Michigan State's numerous close wins as a reason to believe they're a little over-valued. But I tend to look at it as solid coaching and player-efficiency that gives the Spartans the chance to win games in the end. Mark D'Antonio and staff have done another terrific job. We're taking nothing away from Nick Saban and Alabama's talented roster. We just don't believe they'll cover this number. Bama has struggled ATS outside of SEC play, currently on a 2-10-1 slide in those games. Meanwhile, Michigan State is on a 33-16-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 4-0 ATS run in bowl action. I'm grabbing the points with Michigan State, my Playoff Hammer! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Wisconsin on Wednesday night. Despite less than typical Wisconsin-like offensive numbers this season, the Badgers still finished 9-3 SU, with three losses coming against Alabama, Iowa, and Northwestern. The Tide are in the running for a possible national title, the Hawkeyes missed a spot in the CFB playoffs by one game, and the Wildcats are a sturdy 10-2 and playing in a New Year's Day bowl game. The three teams own a combined record of 34-4 SU. The Badger defense is nasty, stingy, and fierce, and I expect the unit to cause problems for the USC offense. Wisconsin ranks #4 against the run, allowing just 98 yards rushing per game. They're 6th against the pass, 3rd in total yards allowed per game (267.1), and #1 in scoring defense allowing just 13.1 ppg. USC QB Cody Kessler (thumb) is expected to play and he does possess future NFL weaponry at WR to throw to. But with the way Wisconsin has played on defense, I do believe the Badgers will throw a wrench into the USC attack. And let's not forget the Trojans lost five games this season, including two of their last three, while averaging less than 25 ppg in the losses. The USC defense has been a mess most of the season, ranked 96th against the pass, while also allowing over 400 total yards per game. They were scorched for 41 points or more on four occasions this season. USC allowed nearly 5 yards per carry over their last three games and saw their last six opponents complete 123 of 175, a whopping 70.3% of their passes, with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs. It's no wonder Clay Helton canned DC Justin Wilcox and three other assistants after the final game of the season. Look for Wisconsin to take full advantage. I'm taking the points with Wisconsin, my Wednesday night Hammer. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Nevada on Tuesday. These teams are obviously familiar with each other since both reside in the Mountain West Conference. However, they did not meet this season. The last time they met, Colorado State emerged victorious with a 31-24 win. This year's matchup provides us with an excellent ground game against a porous run defense. The Wolf Pack offense owns a top-30 running game and is one of two teams with two 1,000-yard rushers. Meanwhile, the Rams have been horrible against the run, allowing 208 yards rushing per game, which ranks 108th in the nation. We should note that Nevada is on a 6-1 SU run when they rush for at least 200 yards in a game. We've seen a few of these kind of matchups so far this bowl season and have found success when we've stepped in on teams with strong ground games (leading into Tuesday). Nevada might also have a new wrinkle or two in the Pistol offense with WR's coach Jim Hofher taking over the offensive play-calling. Colorado State's offense has shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with a high turnover rate...one of the worst turnover margins in the nation, and the Pack have a ball-hawking secondary, ready to take full advantage. As they head into Tuesday's contest, the Wolf Pack are on a 4-0-1 ATS run against fellow MWC teams. I'm taking the points with Nevada, my Bowl Hammer on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Air Force on Tuesday. As a bettor you do yourself a favor most bowl seasons if you look to play on strong running teams, especially if they're facing poor run defenses. That's the case in this one. Air Force owns the second best running game in college football, averaging 322 yards rushing per contest. They'll face Cal's 102nd ranked run defense that allows over 203 yards rushing per contest. The Falcons are led by thousand-yard rusher Jacobi Owens, who leads no less than seven players who have rushed for more than 300 yards this season. But Cal is not just horrible against the run. The Bears rank 94th against the pass and I expect a few Air Force play-action passes in this one. Cal QB Jared Goff put up serious numbers this season, but he has no ground game to keep the Air Force defense honest and the AFA stop unit has played well against both the run and pass this season. Cal went 0-6 ATS this season against teams that averaged at least 425 yards per game. Meanwhile the Falcons are on a 6-1 ATS run as an underdog. I'm taking the points with Air Force, my Daytime Knockout on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Duke on Saturday. Most folks are expecting a high scoring game. I get that, but I do believe it'll be Indiana's defense that gives up the majority of those points. I actually have Duke with the higher power rating of the two teams. Both teams can pile up the yardage and the points, but Duke owns the much better defense even with safety Jeremy Cash listed as out for this one with a wrist injury. But Duke was strong against the run, ranked 38th in the nation and they allowed just over 370 total yards per game. The Hoosiers are a disaster on the defensive side of the football, allowing 37 ppg, while ranked 128th against the pass and 121st in total yards allowed per contest. While this should be a high scoring game, I expect a few defensive stands to be the difference in this game and Duke wins that battle. The Blue Devils are on a 26-13 ATS run. They're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and 12-4 ATS under HC Cutcliffe when the line is in a +3/-3 range. I'm grabbing the points with the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Washington on Saturday. Great season for Southern Miss, but we went against them in their finale and cashed when the Eagles lost 45-28 to Western Kentucky. And we say now what we said then, Southern Miss has beaten just one team that currently owns a .500 record or better. The win came against La Tech. Southern Miss won 58-24, but the final score was misleading. The Eagles led 24-17 well into the third quarter, but eventually took advantage of no less than seven La Tech turnovers. Before the 17-point loss to WKU, and before the game with La Tech, Southern Miss played just two other teams with a winning record, losing 34-16 to Mississippi State and 31-10 to Marshall. That 13 ppg average was a far cry from the 47 ppg they scored against their other 10 opponents (before WKU). And high powered Southern Miss averaged just 4.92 yards per play, 3.2 yards per run, and 6.13 yards per pass with two TD passes and three INTs. Those were a few of the reasons we backed WKU a few weeks ago and are some of the same reasons we'll back Washington in this one. The Huskies scored a coaching coup when Chris Peterson agreed to sign-on, and this is one coach we know will have his team focused. Washington is 6-6 SU, but just 15 points from a 9-3 mark. And they won their final two games with ease, outscoring Oregon State & Washington State, 97-17. The defense is the best in the Pac-12 and will be a serious step-up in level of competition for Southern Miss. RB Myles Gaskin leads the U-W offense and I expect the offensive line to provide plenty of room, eventually opening up lanes in the passing game. We should note that teams off of back-to-back wins by 28 or more points are on a 60-23 ATS run, provided their opponent allowed more than 36 ppg in their previous contest. And Washington is on an 8-1 ATS run as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, outscoring those nine opponents by 22 ppg. I'm laying the points with Washington, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Georgia Southern on Wednesday night. Nice start spread-wise for the MAC, after entering this postseason on a 14-28 ATS slide. We had Akron yesterday, but today we'll go against MAC entry Bowling Green. First of all, the Falcons will be without popular and successful HC Dino Babers, who has taken the same position at Syracuse. The Falcons enjoyed slinging the ball around under Babers and I expect the new look to be high powered also, under new HC Mike Jinks. But that'll have to wait until next season before Jinks can sink his teeth into this program's playbook. This year's defense was another story, repeatedly through the air, ranked 94th in the nation against the pass. They were mediocre against the run. Georgia Southern will offer the top-ranked running game in the nation, basing everything out of their triple-option look. Normally, with extra time to prep, some defenses are able to get a grasp on how to cover option offenses. But BGSU is not as quick as GASO and with the coaching situation, I expect the Falcons to struggle against Kevin Ellison, Matt Breida, LA Ramsby, and the rest of the Eagles' ground game. Breida ran for over 1,500 yards on 8.1 yards per carry. In all, GASO has four players who have topped 600 yards rushing this season and three of those gained more than 6 yards per carry. Here's the kicker: The Eagles also plays defense, ranked 27th against the run, 39th against the pass, and 21st in total yards allowed per game. GASO is on a 10-2 ATS run in non-conference action and they're 13-4 ATS against teams that complete at least 58% of their passes. I'm grabbing the points with Georgia Southern, my Bowl Hammer on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Akron on Tuesday. Experienced and motivation are the key words to describe Akron's defense and the entire team's attitude heading into Tuesday's afternoon contest. They're also led by Terry Bowden and Chuck Amato, who aren't exactly in their first rodeo. Akron will face a Utah State squad with bigger and better things on their mind than the Idaho Potato Bowl after whipping Boise State, 52-26. But the Aggies finished 2-4 SU and had to settle for yet another bowl trip to Boise. The motivational edge certainly lies with the Zips, who're making their first bowl appearance since 2005. Chuckie Keeton will wrap-up his injury-filled career in this one. But the Aggies' QB has completed just 53% of his passes the last two seasons with 5 TD passes and 10 INTs. We'll see a pair of QBs in all likelihood for USU, but I don't expect either to have their way with the Aggies' defense. Akron enters having won and covered four straight games, while the Aggies have dropped four straight ATS and seven of their last 10 outside of conference play. I'm grabbing the points with Akron on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Appalachian State on Saturday. Motivation is a key factor in early bowl matchups and while Ohio University will never grow tired of bowling, this is a much bigger deal for Appalachian State, making their first bowl trip. To tell you how excited the Mountaineers are to be here, their first ticket allotment sold out in less than 48 hours. While that doesn't guarantee a great performance, we do know the coaches and players are as excited as the fan base. ASU owns a premier RB in Marcus Cox, who has rushed for more than 12-hundred yards each of the last three seasons, including 1,266 on 5.8 yards per carry this season. Jalin Moore, Terrence Upshaw, and QB Tyler Lamb combined to run for another 1,450 yards on more than 6 yards per carry. Speaking of Lamb, the duo-threat signal caller has thrown 29 TD passes this season with just 8 INTs, while averaging nearly 9 yards per attempt. The Mountaineers are very quick at wideout and even though they won't have Shaedon Meadors (out - ankle), they have enough depth to give Ohio's defense plenty of trouble when they overcompensate to defend the run. Add it up and we believe the number on App State is more than fair. And we should note, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 65-26 ATS if they're off a road win and the opposition has won at least two straight conference games. Finally, the MAC is on a 4-13 SU slide, losing 12 of 17 ATS (14-28 ATS last 42 bowls). I'm laying the points with Appalachian State, my Bowl TKO on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Michigan State on Saturday. While we respect the undefeated season the Iowa Hawkeyes have put together, the fact is, they have benefited from a soft slate in 2015. They've had close calls, escaping Pitt, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Minnesota, and would have likely lost last week's game to Nebraska if not for a Tommy Armstrong meltdown. The Husker QB looked like Iowa's best player on Saturday, tossing four INTs, and they weren't exactly of the forced variety, simply horrible decision making. Nebraska out-gained Iowa 433-250, holding the Hawkeyes to 97 yards passing and 11 first downs. Michigan State did not get so lucky in Lincoln, falling 39-38 in their only loss of the season. However, with two minutes to go in the game, the Spartans led 38-26. Michigan State is 15th in the nation against the run and 27th in total yards allowed per game. But Michigan State has proven themselves ever since. And if Iowa can't run, they're done. The Hawkeyes are 92nd in the nation passing the football. That's exactly what I expect to happen -- MSU clamps down on Jordan Canzeri and company, and it's game over. MSU is on an 18-7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and they're on a 6-0 ATS run at neutral sites. I'm laying the points with Michigan State, my Championship Tapout GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the USC Trojans on Saturday. The teams combined for 72 points in the first meeting, but I expect things to be different this time around. USC looked ready to roll during the first half of their 41-31 loss to the Cardinal, but Stanford HC David Shaw made the eventual game winning adjustments. There were no adjustments made on the USC sideline as they never made changes on the pass rush and got lit-up by Kevin Hogan. We should note that Steve Sarkisian was calling the shots. Now, with Clay Helton overseeing things, the Trojans are more of a run-based football team. USC has out-rushed each of their seven opponents since Helton took the interim, now permanent job. I believe the ground game will allow them to eventually open up the passing game, including a few early-down play-fakes. USC gained nearly 600 yards in the loss to Notre Dame, and since then have gone 5-1 SU with their only loss coming against Oregon, a team that ended Stanford's thoughts of playing for a national title. USC had taken two straight from Stanford before the Cardinal won in September and I expect a return to the win column for the Trojans. I'm grabbing the points with USC, my Shocker, as the dog moves to 5-0 ATS in this series. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky on Saturday. Southern Miss has been receiving their share of ink over the last few weeks and we have won with them a couple of times during their current 6-0 (5-1 ATS) run. The offense has been in high gear, but the fact is, Southern Miss has beaten only one team with a record that's currently .500 or better. The win came last time out against La Tech in a somewhat misleading final score of 58-24. Southern Miss led 24-17 well into the third quarter, but La Tech finished the game with a whopping seven turnovers. Southern Miss played just two other teams with a winning record, losing 34-16 to Mississippi State and 31-10 to Marshall. That 13 ppg average is a far cry from the 47 ppg they scored against their other 10 opponents. And that high powered Southern Miss offense averaged just 4.92 yards per play, 3.2 yards per run, and 6.13 yards per pass with two TD passes and three INTs. The Hilltoppers are the real deal in the passing game, ranked 6th in the nation. And remember, this game is being played on WKU's home field, where they have averaged nearly 48 ppg and beat Marshall 49-28, (the same team that slammed the door on Southern Miss). The Hilltoppers enter on a 7-2-1 ATS run in conference play. Finally, conference home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 46-24 ATS run, provided both teams average at least 34 ppg in conference action. I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Conf-USA Knockout GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Bowling Green on Friday night. Strong revenge spot for the Falcons who were blown out 51-17 by NIU in last year's title game. But the Huskies are banged up at the most important position...QB. NIU saw their offensive production hit the skids last week, gaining just 328 yards on 72 plays, including 73 yards rushing on less than 2 yards per carry. The previous week, QB Ryan Graham completed just 11 of 23 passes against WMU. Graham is questionable for this one, which means Tommy Fielder may get the start. There's nothing wrong with the Bowling Green offense that continues to pile-up points and yardage, ranked in the top-5 in the nation in ppg, passing yards per game, and total yards per game. BG enters on a 38-13 ATS run off a win by 21 or more, while the Huskies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 December contests. I'm backing Bowling Green to gain a measure of revenge and by a spread covering margin. Bowling Green minus the points, my Friday MAC Championship. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Colorado State on Saturday night. The Rams have actually played to a better record on the road (3-1) this season than they have at home (3-4). They're also better than their record overall, two OT losses away from an 8-3 mark (Colorado & Minnesota). Tonight, the Rams have a chance to close the season with their fourth straight win and a 7-5 mark. CSU will face statistically, one of the worst teams in college football when they take on Fresno State. The Bulldogs have endured a horrible season with their only wins coming against Hawaii, UNLV, and Abiline Christian. Fresno ranks 108th or worse in rushing yards and passing yards per game, total yards per game, and average points scored. The defense isn't much better, giving up 38.5 ppg, while ranked 118th defending the run and 110th in total yards allowed per contest. What we need from CSU is a focused effort, and with revenge on their mind, I expect nothing less. Two of the Rams' top three RBs are now listed as probable, an upgrade from earlier in the week. And the Nick Stevens - Rashad Higgins passing/receiving combo ought to flourish against the Bulldog defense. Fresno is on a 2-8 ATS slide, including 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-1 ATS November run. I'm laying the points with Colorado State, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Penn State on Saturday. Penn State's defense has been outstanding all season long, ranked in the top 15 in just about every key/important category. The unit has carried the Nittany Lions to a 7-4 record and they'll look to close strong against a still over-valued Michigan State team. Let's remember, the Spartans have seen five games go down to the closing minutes of gametime, winning four of those contests. They lost in Lincoln, and beat Michigan & Ohio State on the final play of the game, despite not once leading during regulation. They're a little banged-up and the secondary can be had at times. PSU QB Christian Hackenburg's accuracy has been nothing special, but he has thrown just three INTs in 306 attempts this season. And of course, Saquon Barkley has been a beast at RB in 2015. Penn State is a quality squad that can take this game to the wire. Favorites of 10 1/2 to 21 points are just 23-55 ATS after winning at least eight of their last 10 games and are playing at least .800 football on the season, provided the opponent is playing .600 to .800 football. I'm grabbing the points with Penn State, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Alabama on Saturday. When we've backed the Tide this season, we have always talked about whether or not the opposing offense is led by a dual-threat QB. To beat Alabama an offense needs to have a signal caller who is capable of escaping pressure and can also call his own number 10-12 times per game in the running game. That's not the case with Auburn QB Sean White. The offense is one-dimensional, ranked 108th in the passing game, and White is not the QB who will make Alabama's defense pay with his legs. Same goes for Jeremy Johnson when he's behind center. Johnson is a little more capable than White, but not enough to make a living off the difference. Bottom line: I expect the Bama defense to take care of business. Alabama ranks second against the run, 18th against the pass, and third in total yards allowed per game. They also allow just 14.5 points per contest. Offensively, the Tide has scored 30 or more points in nine of 11 games this season. RB Derrick Henry ought to put up big numbers (again) facing a permissive Auburn defense, which will eventually open things up for Jake Coker and the Alabama passing game. Auburn enters on a 5-17 ATS slide overall, and they have covered just one of their last 10 home games. Meanwhile, Alabama is on a 5-0 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record. The chalk has been the way to go in this series, covering seven of 10. More of the same in this one. I'm laying the points with Alabama, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday afternoon.  You can't blame the Iowa Hawkeyes for their schedule, but you can do your best not to overrate them like the championship committee has.  The Hawkeyes enter Friday 11-0 and if the Final Four began today, they'd be in it.  But the schedule has been extremely soft, they have escaped in a couple of games, and now an undefeated team with weaker raw power numbers than at least a dozen other teams, must travel to take on a Nebraska team looking for bowl eligibility.  The Huskers have shown all season they can compete.  They may be 5-6 SU, but four of their losses came on their opponents' final offensive play of the game.  Nebraska is just a handful of plays from 9-2 and they're the only team to knock-off Michigan State.  The Huskers had last week off and one of my favorite situations is when a team with a late season bye faces a team without one.  Iowa hasn't had a week off since October 24.  They also rely on the run with a passing game that ranks 82nd in the nation.  Nebraska has not fared well against the pass, but they're 9th defending the run.  And Nebraska's 33rd ranked passing offense should find enough holes in the Iowa pass defense, which isn't bad, but also isn't anything to write home about.  The Huskers enter on a 17-5 ATS run at home against teams that average at least 34 ppg.  And Mike Riley-coached teams have made the most of byes, covering 19 of 27 games following a week off.  I'm backing Nebraska, my Rivalry Beatdown on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Friday afternoon. Mizzou has brought it emotionally ever since HC Gary Pinkel announced his retirement. But the team just doesn't have the offensive talent to back it up and emotion at the end of the season affords a team one to two good quarters when the talent can't back it up. That's the case for the Tigers who rank 111th through the air, 118th on the ground, 126th in total yards per game, and average a measly 14.5 ppg. Mizzou barely has more offensive TDs than games played in 2015. Nothing wrong with the Arkansas offense that caught fire on October 24 and has not looked back. The Razorbacks averaged 50.2 ppg in their last five games. And while Mizzou's defense has played well all season, they won't be able to hold up to Brandon Allen (29 TD pass; 6 INTs) and the running of Alex Collins (1,262 yards rushing & 14 TDs). I expect Arkansas to wear out the Tigers and pull away from Missouri in the second half. The Razorbacks enter on a 12-2 ATS run against teams averaging no more than 310 yards per game, winning by an average score of 40-13. They've covered five of their last six conference games and I'm backing them here. I'm laying the points with Arkansas, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Northern Illinois on Tuesday. Ohio is bowl eligible, winning two straight games after dropping three in a row. The Bobcats are 7-4 on the season, but the competition gets much tougher after their last two games came against softies. Ohio allowed 49, 41, and 62 points to Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Bowling Green, respectively, during the losing streak. Tuesday's opponent, the NIU Huskies enter having won six straight games, going 5-0-1 ATS, and scoring an average of 42 ppg. They're about as balanced as it gets, averaging just over 226 yards on the ground, while passing for 225 yards per contest. And while they haven't been doing as much through the air since Ryan Graham took over for the injured Drew Hare, the Huskies have still averaged 485 yards per game in his two starts, including 311.5 yards per game on the ground at 5.66 yards per carry. And Graham can run the football. Ohio has faced two of the five MAC teams with conference records of 5-2 or better, allowing a total of 1,148 yards on 8.63 yards per play to Bowling Green & Western Michigan. I expect more troubles for the Ohio defense against the 6-1 (MAC record) NIU Huskies. Besides their 5-0-1 ATS run, the Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are on a 0-7 ATS slide over the last three seasons against teams that average at least 31 ppg, losing by an average score of 39-14. The matchup advantages are what counts the most, of course, but the situations are the icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with Northern Illinois, my Tuesday night Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Baylor Bears on Saturday night. A lot of us happen to believe Oklahoma State is overvalued and playing above their heads to a certain extent. The Cowboys have had some fortunate finishes this season, managing wins in multiple virtual 50-50 games (still in the balance in the 4th quarter) over Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia (OT), and Iowa State, by a combined 16 points. I don't believe their good fortune will continue against the Baylor Bears. Art Briles' squad suffered their first loss of the season to Oklahoma last time out, but no one in a Baylor uniform is hanging their heads, according to Briles. And while the Baylor defense faces a one-dimensional offense today, the Bears' offense will take on an OSU pass defense than can be had. The thing that makes BU so tough to defend is that they aren't just a "bombs away" offense. Baylor averages nearly 638 total yards per game (#1 in the nation), and they do it with college football's 11th ranked passing game and 5th ranked running game. We should also note that QB Jarrett Stidham was upgraded to probable on Friday. Stidham is connecting on over 71% of his passes, averaging 11.44 yards per attempt. Baylor enters on a 15-6 ATS run against teams with a winning record and I'm backing them here. I'm playing the Baylor Bears, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Ohio State on Saturday. The Buckeyes numbers (ratings) keep slipping and in fact, we have seen them go from a potential favorite over every team in CFB just a few weeks ago, to a 2 1/2 point underdog in a possible matchup with Alabama (Westgate) last week, to a current 4-point underdog to Bama this week. I still believe in OSU. The Buckeyes are taking heat for a soft schedule and not looking overly dominant. But they haven't had their competitive juices stoked since the season opener at Va Tech. This week, those competitive juices will be flowing for sure. And while the offense hasn't put up a ton of points, the defense has been strong. In fact, the Buckeyes have allowed just 53 yards rushing on their opponents last 51 carries, going back the last two games. Now, with the offense raring to go against a perceived step-up in competition, I'm expecting a wide margin Buckeye win. Michigan State may be 9-1 SU, but the Spartans have won five games that were in the balance in the fourth quarter. MSU has a power ranking of a decent 7-3 team. And the defense is not nearly as stout as they were the last few years, thanks in part to the departure of Pat Narduzzi who took the head job at Pitt. Ohio State has handled good teams, those outscoring their opponents by at least 10 ppg. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS the last two seasons in this situation, winning by an average score of 47-21. I'm laying the points with Ohio State, my Daytime Dominator on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Southern Miss on Saturday. The Golden Eagles have it going on offense, where they're one of the best in the nation, ranked 11th in total yards per game and getting there with outstanding balance. The defense is nearly as good, posting strong numbers in yardage allowed, but also in points allowed, giving up a grand total of just 43 points in their last four games combined, allowing for a margin of victory of 33 ppg. So Miss is over 100 points ahead of the Vegas spread. Old Dom has played better of late, landing in the win column in each of their last two games. But the numbers aren't there. The Monarchs won't be able to keep up when Southern Miss gets rolling. Old Dom enters on a 2-8 ATS slide and they have allowed 34 ppg on the season. Back to the balanced Southern Miss offense. QB Nick Mullens is enjoying Todd Monken's offense, throwing 30 TD passes on the season with just 7 INTs. His top four targets have between 60 & 36 receptions with 24 TDs. And then there's the running game where Jalen Richard and Ito Smith have combined for 1,575 yards rushing with both averaging more than 6 yards per carry. The team is loaded and I expect them to hand Old Dom a wide margin, spread covering loss. I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Temple Owls on Saturday. I went against the Owls last week and cashed with South Florida. The Owls were in a horrible spot and played like it. I went against Memphis two weeks ago and we cashed when Navy whipped the Tigers 45-20. Last week, Memphis suffered their second straight defeat, losing 35-34 to Houston. The final score doesn't tell the story. Memphis led 20-0 in the second quarter; 20-7 at halftime; and led by 20 again in the fourth, up 34-14 before a major collapse. The Tigers' season long goal of an undefeated season and more importantly for them, a spot in the AAC championship game are out the window. But Temple's potential spot in the title game is in their hands...they control their own destiny. Temple is on an 11-4 ATS run and before the flat spot against USF, had allowed just 132 yards per game on the ground. The Owls other loss came to Notre Dame, a 24-20 defeat. Temple led 20-17 with less than three minutes to go in the game. They have fared well against Memphis-type teams, currently on an 8-1 ATS run against teams connecting on 62% of more of their passes. They're also on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that average at least 10 more points per game than they allow. And they own the offense to control the pace of this one just like in last year's meeting that saw a combined 29 points on the scoreboard. But this time, Temple wins in my opinion. This is not likely to be the type of affair Memphis wants. We have also heard Memphis players and coaches publicly wondering how they're going to react to back-to-back losses, especially off of last week's heartbreaker. I do believe the Tiger defense has been worn down and we have seen it the last two weeks, getting outscored by a combined 56-24 in the second half. Memphis allowed Navy 374 yards rushing on 5.7 yards per carry and have allowed 35 or more points on five occasions this season. They'll enter this one on a 3-12-1 ATS slide on natural grass. It's the toughest situation I have seen for a winning team in 2015 and that team is facing a very good team with a season long goal still in hand. I'm backing the Temple Owls, my 2015 GOY. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday. I've read a lot of articles praising the Oregon offense of late, stating that QB Vernon Adams and the Ducks' offense have found their rhythm. I'm more of the opinion the Ducks' offense found a couple of horrible defenses. Oregon beat a disappointing Arizona State team that can't cover the pass and they beat Cal, losers of four straight and owners of a defense that can't stop the pass or the run. This will not be the case this week. Stanford is the most physical team Oregon will have faced this season on both sides of the football. And the Cardinal own the type of offense to control the all-important tempo. McCaffrey and company should have little trouble against an Oregon defense that's one of the worst in the nation against the pass, and not so hot defending the run. I'm just not buying the recent Oregon "surge." I am buying Stanford as a Final Four contender, but they can't slip-up and I don't believe they will in this one. The Cardinal are on a 30-3 SU run at home, covering 61% of those games. They're also a momentum team under HC David Shaw, entering on a 13-3 ATS run after scoring at least 42 points in their previous game. Stanford's average score in those 16 contests: 39-19. And finally, you're 31-10 ATS going against road dogs of more than 3 points, but less than 10.5 points, provided they're off back-to-back conference wins and their opponent is off a double digit road win. The matchups are what matter to me the most, but the situations provide icing on the cake. I'm laying the points with Stanford, my Knockout on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with South Florida on Saturday. The Bulls have won four of their last five, but are still one of the more undervalued teams in college football. One of their season losses came by 7 points to then undefeated Memphis, when USF slowed down the vaunted Tiger attack. And they trailed Navy by just 5 points with less than two minutes to go in the game before falling, 29-17. That's how close USF is to having a 7-2 SU mark. The Bulls are all about the run, ranked 21st in the nation and playing stout defense. They'll face a Temple team that had their dreams of an undefeated season dashed by Notre Dame two weeks ago, then struggling in a misleading 60-40 win over SMU last week. The Owls led the Mustangs 45-40 with just two minutes to go in the game before a couple of fortunate scores. Last week, USF held ECU to 8 first downs and 62 yards rushing. And Willie Taggert coached football teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS the week after holding an opponent to 75 or fewer yards rushing. His teams are momentum teams. And this year's Bulls are on a 6-0 ATS run on natural grass. I'm grabbing the points with South Florida, my Situational Shocker on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday. We had ISU a few weeks ago when they whipped Texas in Ames, Iowa. HC Paul Rhodes has developed a knack for knocking off big name opponents on his home turf. I mentioned in the Texas analysis that Rhodes had parted ways with then OC Mark Mangino. The two never saw eye-to-eye and Rhodes wanted to get back to a run-first philosophy. ISU owns a big scheduling advantage this weekend, playing their final home game against an Oklahoma State squad that's sandwiched between games against TCU & Baylor with a contest against chief rival Oklahoma following the game with the Bears. OSU is also getting a little too much credit for last week's win over TCU. Yes, the Cowboys won 49-29. But they were out-gained 663-456, taking advantage of a plus-4 turnover margin. ISU likes to play ball control on offense and OSU has struggled against teams that do so. The Cowboys have covered just six of their last 23 against teams that hold onto the football for at least 32 minutes per game and gain at least 21 first downs per game. OSU has been outscored 35-23 on average in those 23 games. Tough spot for the Cowboys and a solid spot for the home team. I'm taking the points with Iowa State, my DogPound release on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. Miami still has a shot to top their division in the ACC by the end of the year, but by numbers only. The fact is, the Hurricanes have not looked impressive for most of the season. Miami is just a handful of plays from a 3-6 record, having eked-out wins over Nebraska, Duke (officials mistake), and Virginia. They're a phony 6-3 in my book. There's nothing phony about the Tar Heels. UNC owns one of the best pass defenses in college football, and they're balanced on offense, ranked 25th through the air and 32nd on the ground, while averaging 40 ppg. They also own big play arsenal to boot. The Heels are 6-0 SU in Chapel Hill this season, outscoring their "guests" by an average of 47-17! In fact, their closest margin of victory in six home games was 13 points. UNC is also in revenge for a painful 27-point loss in Miami a season ago. I won't be shocked to see a similar score in this one, but this time, the Heels come out on top. UNC enters on a 21-6 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, Miami is on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams that average at least 250 yards passing per game. I'm laying the points with North Carolina, my Main Event on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.