Washington/Michigan 7:30: In big games like this, the more physical team with playmakers will usually win. And I'm not going to label Washington finesse because they have an offensive line (Joe Moore Award) that protected Penix Jr. extremely well to the tune of just 8 sacks. And they faced four Top 25 defenses, including Oregon twice, Texas and Utah. Penix Jr. lit those defenses up for a combined 1,383 yards, 9 TDs to just 2 INTs. Michigan's stingy #1 defense sacked Alabama's Milroe 6 times and had 10 TFLs. Many a team has been blitz happy vs Penix Jr. and paid for it as explosive Huskies' receivers Odunze and Polk made the secondaries pay in man coverage. And if Michigan chooses to play zone, the Huskies versatile offense can run the football with 1100+ yard rusher with 16 TDs - Dillon Johnson (leg) who is good to go. No doubt, this is the best well rounded offense the Wolverines have faced this season. Defensively, Washington is yielding but has playmakers. The Huskies' defense is 12th in the nation in interceptions. Bottom line, Washington Coach Deboer has found ways to stay in games and win for the two years he's been there. He's a 10-0-1 ATS in non-conference games. We'll take the points. 

Texas/Washington 8:45: Washington beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl last season and should deliver tonight. Last season, Huskies were more well balanced in their offense and defensively forced the Longhorns' Ewers into throwing repeatedly when the run game stalled out. Today, Texas at full strength and should be able to move the football on a yielding Washington defense. But Huskies have defensive playmakers who consistently made plays in the red zone. Offensively, the Huskies, arguably, have the best offensive line in the nation. They'll be tested against a tremendous defensive front of Texas; however, Penix Jr. has been spot on in his quick release and locating three of the best receivers in the nation. And they're going against a yielding secondary. I'll take the Huskies here with one of the best coaches in college football - Deboer. 

Alabama/Michigan 5:00: Can't ignore the Wolverines 0-6 bowl mark in its last six attempts. Four of those teams were from the SEC and a few of them ugly losses. Sure, Michigan brings to the field the power run game behind a well-disciplined offensive line. But keep in mind that Alabama has faced some explosive run games in the SEC and fared quite well; as a matter of fact, they're in the top quarter percentile in rush yards allowed and yards per carry. And QB McCarthy was shaky down the stretch. Alabama has dynamic cornerbacks in McKinstry and Arnold. And another dominant edge rusher in Turner in a unit that averages 3 sacks per game. Offensively, QB Milroe progressed substantially since that early season benching after Texas. He's had a sensational season 23/6 TD/INT 2716 yards passing. He has a strong supporting cast in a productive offense that is much better than what the stats indicate. Wolves have the #1 defense, but this is the best offense they faced all season. Alabama the call. 

Liberty/Oregon 1:00: I told you that Georgia would drop 60 on Florida State and they did. Today, I don't see Oregon running away with this one. It seems lopsided but Liberty has some ballers. QB Salter did a super job running this offense. And the Flames sport the #1 rushing team in the nation. Coach Chadwell doing a good media job telling the press how great Oregon is but he knows his boys will compete today. Oregon's QB Bo Nix won't have his #1 receiver Troy Franklin nor his center - Powers-Johnson (Rimington Trophy Winner) and those are significant losses. Oregon does have the athletes but look for the Flames to hang around. Chadwell will surely hitch the wagon onto 1300+ rusher Cooley to move the chains. And defensively, the ball hawking secondary of the Flames (#1 interceptions) can keep them in this game. Liberty the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Toledo/Wyoming 4:30: Got to go with the Cowboys who should win one final one for their coach - Craig Bohl - who's retiring after this game. Bohl sports a 4-0-1 ATS mark in bowl games. Toledo had a solid season and would most likely be the favorite here; however, starting QB Finn is transferring to Baylor and top rusher - Boone 1,400 yards is in the portal. Rockets turn to QB Tucker Gleason who had limited playing time in mop up duty this season.  Wyoming has a solid defense and takes a methodical approach to offense with QB Peasley and RB Waylee (5.9 YPC). They're one of the least penalized teams in the nation and play hard. We'll look for Coach Bohl to go out a winner. 

Georgia/Fla State 4:00: This line opened at Georgia (-14) and now as high as (-21). We'll lay the wood. Florida State had a good argument to be in the playoffs but without Jordan Travis (broken leg), their offense just couldn't move the football. Backup Rodemaker (in portal) didn't develop and the 'Noles are forced to go to freshman Glenn. Glenn will make his second consecutive start. His first - against a mediocre Louisville defense, did not go well. Now he goes against a real defense - Top 10 in yards allowed and points per game. And considering that Glenn won't have four significant playmakers who opted out: RB Benson (905 yards rushing), Coleman (50 catches), Wilson (41 catches) and Bell (39 catches), I don't see much offensive production from Florida State.  And the rabid Bulldogs are hungry after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Sure, it's their own fault, but for a team that won 45 of its last 47 games, they're in an ornery mood to make a statement. And usually when that's the case, they deliver. Georgia's offense is well run with QB Beck (72% completions). And even without Bowers (ankle), McConkey (probable) should add to a dynamic cast of skill players. 'Noles defense won't have All-American Verse or DL Lovett. This one should get ugly late. Georgia the call.  

Missouri/Ohio State 8:00: Ohio State is used to playing for National Championships and I question their focus here; especially with a multitude of transfer portal players including QB McCord. And I can't see two-time All-American Harrison Jr. playing when he's up for an almost certain NFL first round selection. OSU does have a stellar defense guided by DC Knowles. Missouri, however, does have stability in their program with limited defections. All American RB Schrader, QB Brady Cook and playmaking WR Burden III will play behind a stable offensive line. And Missouri's defense, which recorded 35 sacks and 18 takeaways showed throughout the season that they can hang with elite teams. We'll take the points with the hungrier and more stable program. 

Clemson/Kentucky Noon: At full strength, Clemson could run away with this game; however, Tigers have 6 key defensive players opting out, including leading tackler and disrupter Jeremiah Trotter Jr. That opens the door for the Wildcats' NFL bound RB Ray Davis who wants to play. And veteran QB Leary, who played 5 seasons at NC State and played against Clemson 3 times. This will be his first bowl game and he should make the best of it. Clemson does not have near as many defections offensively, but Kentucky defense should be able to be competitive. Clemson offense is in the bottom tier of the NCAA in interceptions and fumbles. Kentucky Hc Stoops has won some bowl games in recent years to the tune of 4-1. Grab the points. 

Arizona/Oklahoma 9:15: This line pretty much dictates who should win this game and I'm rolling with it. Jedd Fisch, in 3 seasons at the helm, has taken the Wildcats from the PAC 12 doormat to a major contender. They were a covering machine this season to the tune of 8-2 ATS. Their defense went from 124th in total yards allowed to 37th yielding well over 100 yards less per game than a year ago. Offensively, Fr QB Fifita filled in the 4th quarter of the 4th game of the season and led the Wildcats to the 23 ranked scoring offense in the nation. His favorite target is 6'5" matchup nightmare McMillan (1242 yards 10 TDs). Oklahoma has several defensive players in the portal including starting safety who's off to Ole Miss. Moreover, offensively, the Sooners will rip off the red shirt of freshman Jackson Arnold. Arizona defensive coordinator Nansen has film on Arnold who went 18 of 24 for 202 yards and 2 TDs. Starting QB Dillon Gabriel off to Oregon. Arnold has skill weaponry; however, starting LG Green (transferred), while C Raym and RT Guyton are preparing for the NFL draft. That's more than half the starting offensive line! We'll rock with Arizona

NC State/Kansas State 5:45: Loads of transfers on each side. Kansas State better coached with Klieman. And the Wildcats QB Avery Johnson is arguably better than Will Howard (season starter) who entered the portal. Wildcats the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Kansas/UNLV 9:00: Great turnaround story for Barry Odom and the UNLV Rebels. First bowl game since 2013. They were a covering machine up until the last few weeks of the season. San Jose State and Boise State ran roughshod all over them. Kansas, which battled just about everyone strong in the Big 12, sports an explosive run game with RB Devin Neal (1000+ yards) behind a mammoth offensive line. UNLV defense is vulnerable - ranked 87th in nation against the run. And QB Jason Bean, no Jalen Daniels, but shifty and ran the offense well when called upon. UNLV has a very good "Go Go Offense" run by QB Maiava. Kansas' defense has taken on a number of fast paced offenses in the Big 12 and held their own. Kansas has a bit more talent and stability with HC Leipold who has done well as a more than TD favorite in his coaching career. Kansas the call. 

James Madison/Air Force 3:30: So far, Sun Belt showing weakness in bowls. JM had an incredible year and nearly ran the table had it not been for an OT loss to Appalachian State in OT. The success of the program springboarded Coach Cignetti and much of his staff to Indiana. And like many bowl teams this season, there are opt outs. The Dukes' recording setting QB McCloud, however, will play.  Not sure if this offense will run like a well-oiled machine like it did in the regular season with the coaching turnover. And Air Force defense no joke. They're a Top 10 defense in total yards allowed and Top 20 in points allowed. Offensively, AF QB Zac Larrier, along with other skill guys, had time to heal. When healthy, AF has a potent run game in the Triple Option. The Dukes' new coaching staff apparently has people familiar with stopping the unique system. We'll see if they can play the assignment football necessary to do so. It's hard to simulate the system with scout players in practice, and when AF is on, they're hard to stop. Dukes' defense was strong all-season vs the run but gave up yardage through the air. AF won't pass more than a handful of times, but I don't like defensive imbalances. Bottom line, AF slid down the stretch dropping their last 4 games, including the all-important game to Army to start it off; however, AF has stability in their coaching staff and know how to win bowl games under Calhoun at 5-1 the last 6. Air Force the call. 

Analysis to follow...

UTSA/Marshall 9:00: Seems like quite a few points to lay; however, at a close look, good value awaits with the Roadrunners. Jeff Traylor, in his fourth season coaching UTSA, has done a bang-up job by leading the Roadrunners to its 4th straight bowl appearance. He has a veteran QB Frank Harris who was instrumental in the success of the program. The only thing holding this program back is to win a bowl game. They've gone 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in their appearances for the last 3. Tonight, they should get it done. They're quite simply a better program on both sides of the ball. Marshall, under HC Huff, did not parlay last year's successful season into a burgeoning winner; instead, they lost tons of kids into the transfer portal, poor recruiting class, and tonight have key defections (transfer portal) at QB, offensive line, and wide receiver. QB Cole Pennington (Chad's son) sports an 0-6 TD/INT ratio. UTSA respectable defense will clearly focus on 1000+ rusher Rasheem Ali as the main weapon to shut down. Look for UTSA to finally get its first bowl victory in resounding fashion.

New Mexico State/Fresno State 5:45: In two years, Jerry Kill has transformed NMS into a winner and, with a win here, perhaps the best Aggies team in its history. He's got a tough QB in Pavia, a strong run game, and overachieving defense. Fresno, which is with interim Coach Skipper after Tedford left down the stretch for health reasons. Don't believe the Bulldogs can recapture that winning momentum after an embarrassing 0-3 slide down the stretch, including losses to lightweights New Mexico and San Diego State. New Mexico State the call. 

JSU/ULL 2:15: ULL showed promise this year until losing starting QB Wooldridge in the third game. Then his backup -Chriss - went down with a season ending injury November 4th. Then 5th year senior Fields took over down the stretch in a 1-3 slide. Fields actually did well during that stretch. Fields will have to face an opportunistic defense that was a big part of the Gamecocks success. Moreover, it's the defense of ULL I'm concerned with here. Their run-stop-unit allows 160 YPG (85th) and now face the #5 run team in the nation averaging 232 YPG under HC Rich Rodriguez. ULL has been to this bowl numerous times in recent years but 2023 FBS arrival JSU enters not only its first FBS season but its first ever FBS Bowl. The Gamecocks are excited to be in New Orleans and we'll take them. 

Georgia Southern/Ohio University 11:00: Physical vs finesse, we'll grab physical most of the time. The more physical Bobcats of Ohio University sports the #5 scoring defense in the nation (15.4 PPG) and #4 in yards allowed (264). Their offense compliments their defense by pounding the ball with RBs Bangura and Allison behind a sturdy offensive line. And veteran QB Rourke has been in Athens seemingly forever. Georgia Southern under former USC HC Helton brings a pass happy offense (#1 in pass attempts) with QB Davis Brin. He can air it out yet has little run support (104th nationally with 104 YPG). He's been sacked 2.4 times per game. That does not bode well vs the opportunistic Ohio defense that thrives on forcing turnovers. And the GS defense is yielding to the tune of allowing nearly 400 YPG and 30 PPG - both in bottom tier nationally. GS lost its bowl game last year to another MAC team - Buffalo. This year, look for the Bobcats to the do the damage to them and record their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons.

Army/Navy 3:00: Both teams similar in production on both sides of the ball. Army, however, equipped with the more dangerous QB in Bryson Daily. Daily lead the Cadets to two wins over winning teams including blasting Air Force. Navy, on the other hand, did not beat a winning team all season. Both offenses were tweaked this season - operating from the shotgun- yet will line up in heavy package full house around the goal line. Army has a bit more talent among its offensive line. Army should capture the Commander-in=Chief Trophy today at Gillette Stadium. 

Louisville/Florida State 8:00: Florida State doing everything they can to stay in the FBS Playoff picture but should run into trouble here. Seminoles got by Florida last week with QB Rodemaker. He did a decent job going 12 of 25 for 134 yards. He did have the run game to lean on with Benson (95 rush yards). But now that Louisville has film on Rodemaker, who should clear concussion protocol, the respectable Cardinals' defense should make the needed adjustments. And if Rodemaker can't go, 'Noles turn to freshman Brock Glenn, who is talented but very little experience in the Norvell system. I'm not a fan of Cardinals' QB Plummer but he's got a great mentor in Brohm. And Louisville dangerous off losses. They have some notable wins over ND, at NC State and 23-0 over Duke after they lost at Pitt. Perhaps a shakeup of the College Playoffs takes place tonight. Take Lousiville. 

Alabama/Georgia 4:00: Alabama is rarely a dog; as a matter of fact, you go back to 2021 in the SEC Championship, they were 6-point dogs to Georgia. Alabama won 41-24. The win was short lived as Georgia claimed the National Championship 33-18 as a 3-point favorite. Saban is dangerous with revenge and his 'Tide should put up a fight here. I like how his QB Milroe has developed. After that loss to Texas, Milroe has progressed well, to the tune of a passer rating of 70+ over the last 11 games. He's got great character, and the team feeds off that. Both of these teams can put up points, especially in critical moments of games - as each exhibited last week. Both can also make stops down the stretch when needed. We'll look for a competitive game here and go with the dog. 

Oregon/Washington 8:00: Must be insulting for the #3 seed - Washington to be getting double digits from the #11 seed - Oregon - a team the Huskies beat on October 14th. Primary reason is the surge in scoring differential over the last 6 games for Oregon (+29.33), while Washington struggled to win their last 3 games. Nevertheless, a win is a win and Huskies' HC Deboer knows how to win. His offensive line is getting to the health it was early in the season and WR McMillan is now healthy to add to the potent WR duo of Polk and Odunze. We'll look for Penix Jr. to rise to the occasion and deliver. 

South Alabama/Texas State 7:00: Uber talented South Alabama finally living up to their potential - putting back-to-back winning games together. Their rival - Texas State - suffered back-to-back losses including a 77-31 demolition at the hands of Arkansas State. Bobcats have a good offense with QB TJ Finley but defensively in the bottom tier of FBS teams. Jaguars' offense led by QB Carter Bradley should direct a good show tonight. Jaguars sport a top 20 defense in yards allowed and points allowed. We'll look for South Alabama to break their dry streak (0-4) at Bobcats Stadium with a resounding win. 

Arkansas State/Marshall 3:30: Arkansas State finishing season strong on a 4-0 ATS run including a 77-31 whitewashing of Texas State last week. Meanwhile, Marshall offense stuck in neutral as penalties and turnovers continue to do them in. Arkansas State defense not as bad as the stats suggest. Red Wolves should deliver here. 

Analysis to follow...

SJS/UNLV 3:00: Amazing turnaround for UNLV under first year HC Barry Odom. Rebels have been punchless for over a decade until this year. They can run the football and versatile QB Maiava has gotten better as the season progressed. SJS is having a solid year too. They've practically owned this series but should have a tough time here. UNLV has a pretty good defense with a ball hawking secondary. SJS weakness is their run stop unit (allow 173 YPG). UNLV has a run game that grinds out 188 YPG. We'll look for that to be the deciding factor over 4 quarters today. 

Ohio State/Michigan Noon: Both teams know this is for all the marbles. Ryan Day, especially, aware of the grumblings from boosters, fans, administrators demanding a win after going 0-2 vs that school up north. A few really good OSU coaches were run out of town for losing this game. This season, OSU has the best player on the field - Marvin Harrison Jr. who shows up in big games, as exhibited against the stalwart defense of Penn State. And Egbuka, Stover, and versatile RB Henderson give QB McCord plenty of weaponry behind a very good offensive line. Michigan does have the #1 scoring defense in the nation, but this is undoubtedly the best offense they've faced. Defensively, Buckeyes sport the #2 scoring defense in the nation behind DC Knowles. Knowles acknowledged his errors during this game last season and spent hours tweaking his system for this specific game. Michigan, offensively, has been more one dimensional with only OC Sherrone Moore on the sidelines. His QB McCarthy struggled (52%) last week at Maryland. Not having Harbaugh on the sidelines for support here could be costly in critical moments. Interesting to note that Michigan is 0-15 SU in their final Big Ten game of the season since 2001 when not favored by more than 5 points. On the other hand, OSU a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Buckeyes the call. 

Penn State/Michigan State 7:30: Penn State very capable of blasting any team in the Big Ten not named Ohio State or Michigan. As for Michigan State, no longer among the elite. Last week, Michigan State squeaked by with a win at Indiana 24-21. Two players the top tier Lions' defense will surely focus on in the secondary are TE Maliq Carr (career game last week) and Foster Jr. Penn State defense just too dominant to allow the 123rd offense in the nation to move the football today. On the other hand, Penn State will rely on their run game with Allen and Singleton to wear the Spartans' demoralized defense down over the course of this game. And even if QB Allar not able to go, versatile QB Primula good enough to get it done. This is the last year these teams will meet of the Land Grant Trophy and Penn State should run away with it.

Iowa/Nebraska Noon: Both offenses are brutal to watch; however, both defenses are top tier. This total is now set at a record low 25.5. When push comes to shove, Iowa usually wins these games. Ferentz is perfectly content on winning ugly. The Hawkeyes will rely on their run game with Leshon Williams carrying most of the load. Nebraska has started three different QBs in 11 games. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU in Lincoln. And they're looking to avenge last year's 24-17 loss to Scott Frost's Cornhuskers. Rhule will need another year or two to turn things around in Lincoln. Ferentz is a sweet 26-8 SU in rivalry trophies including 2-1 this year. Iowa the call.  

Ole Miss/Mississippi State 7:30: Mississippi State sports a 4-1 ATS mark in this series including last year's win and cover; however, that was under the late Mike Leach. Zach Arnett was named coach and was respectable considering the circumstances. Arnett was fired November 11th after a 51-10 blowout loss to Texas A&M. Greg Knox, the interim coach, was the beneficiary of having QB Will Rogers back in the lineup after a four-game absence with a shoulder injury. The Bulldogs rolled lightweight Southern Miss. Both teams will be fired up for the Egg Bowl trophy but Ole Miss equipped with more talent here. Bulldogs covered just one conference game this season. Kiffin surely wants revenge from last year's narrow loss, and also wants to control the recruits in the state. We'll lay the wood here with the more talented team. 

Bowling Green/Western Michigan 7:00: BG is bowl eligible. They're looking to finish the season strong after losing to one of the top teams in the MAC - Toledo. They put up a fight against the Rockets losing 32-31 as a 9'-point dog. WM will not be easy. The Broncos have a potent offense and tough at home; however, defensively yielding, and allow 31.5 PPG (110th). BG does not have a potent offense but takes care of the football and plays solid defense. The Falcons are one of the top teams in the nation forcing turnovers. They're also 8-2 ATS as weekday favorites of less than 8 points. And they've shown strength off losses this season at 3-0 ATS. BG the call. 

Washington/Oregon State 7:30: Revenge game for Oregon State. The Beavers lost 24-21 at Husky Stadium last season. Tonight, they have the undefeated Huskies in their dominant confines of Reser Stadium where they are 16-1 SU since 2021. Washington's QB Penix Jr. is having a phenomenal year but face a tenacious defense that gets after the QB (3.5 sacks per game). Washington's run game not the greatest (101st nationally). On the other hand, Beavers a bit more balanced with RB Martinez carrying a lot of the load and it's helping QB Uigalelei turn in a solid season. We'll look for Oregon State to deliver tonight. 

ULL/Troy 3:30: Troy has been an absolute machine with Jon Sumrall running the program. Trojans went 11-2 SU/ATS in Sumrall's first year as HC last season, and his boys are on a mission to win the Sun Belt Title on a current 6-0 SU/ATS tear. They sport a #8 scoring defense in the nation and have a very good QB in Gunnar Watson (21/4 TD/INT). ULL defense allows a generous 29 PPG and on the demise after Billy Napier left to Florida last season. We'll lay the wood with Troy. 

North Carolina/Clemson 3:30: NC still has a shot at the ACC title game. They'll need to sweep the remaining games and hope for a Louisville loss today. North Carolina has their share of defensive breakdowns but stay in games because of their explosive #3 offense led by Drake Maye. The Tar Heels defense doing a better job this year limiting explosive plays. And Mack Brown stays in games; as a matter of fact, 17 of the last 23 regular season losses under him have been one possession games. We'll take the 7 and a hook. 

Utah/Arizona 2:30: Jedd Fisch is doing an amazing job with Arizona. Dramatic improvement defensively from a year ago, and he's got a redshirt freshman QB Fifita who is lighting it up offensively. But I can't discount the king of PAC 12 coaches - Kyle Whittingham - who finds ways of winning, especially off losses. Utah coming off a hard-fought losing battle at Washington. Bryson Barnes has settled in as his QB and Whittingham should do what his team does best: run the football, play great defense, and win the game. Utah has controlled this series for a while and don't see them relinquishing it today. 

Analysis to follow...

Auburn/Arkansas 4:00: Hugh Freeze controls a 7-2 SU/ATS mark as an underdog vs SEC opponents and I like him here. He's developed QB Payton Thorne gradually throughout the year. Thorne has shown dramatic progress over his last few games. Auburn also has established a run game. Arkansas' defense has shown tendencies to allow QBs to settle in (104th QBR). And offensively, Arkansas struggles running the football (3.2 YPC) which will put pressure on QB K.J. Jefferson. Auburn defense allows just 21.7 PPG. The Tigers are looking to avenge last year's 41-27 loss at Auburn. The Tigers control a 6-1 SU mark in this series last 7 years. Auburn the call. 

New Mexico State/Western Kentucky 3:30: Hilltoppers QB Austin Reed can sling it and gets a lot of press; however, over the course of the game with a limited run game (114th nation) and a yielding defense (130th in yards allowed), they've eked out a 5-4 SU record this season. On the other hand, Jerry Kill's Aggies are 7-3 SU and gaining momentum just like they did last year down the stretch on their way to a bowl win. Their 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and tough as nails QB Pavia is running their offense to perfection. Like their chances here, especially with their solid ground game and a defense that allows just 20 PPG. NMS the call. 

Michigan/Penn State Noon: Penn State QB Allar looks great against run of the mill teams but crapped himself against Ohio State. Michigan enters this game with the #1 defense in total yards and scoring allowed. They are #2 in the country in holding QBs to their lowest rating. The Lions don't have the receivers who can create great separation and Michigan is very well versed in the secondary with athletic playmakers. Offensively, the Wolverines either have the run game or QB McCarthy wreaking havoc on defenses. Penn State has a great defense, but over the course of this game, Michigan, which has been sensational limiting turnovers and penalties, should run their offense effectively enough to win and cover. Wolverines a sweet 9-1 ATS vs conference opponent off double-digit SU win. Michigan the call. 

Wyoming/UNLV 10:45: Former Missouri HC Barry Odom has done an amazing job in his first year guiding the Rebels to a 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS mark. UNLV offense clicking with QB Jayden Maiava at the helm. And the bread and butter of the offensive production has come from a three-headed monster run game attack with Davis, Lester and Thomas accounting for nearly 200 YPG. Wyoming defense pretty good but on the road they've given up 31+ PPG. And offensively, Cowboys struggle in their pass game (125th). They're facing a pretty good UNLV defense that will yield yardage but tightens in the red zone. Wyoming has owned this series in recent years to the tune of 5-1 ATS, but Rebels no longer getting pushed around under Odom. Rebels are a sweet 9-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS win. UNLV the call. 

Eastern Michigan/Toledo 7:30: The Eagles won't scare any team on paper. Statistically, they're at the bottom of the NCAA in most offensive categories. And not great defensively; however, they stay in games, hence the 4-1 ATS roll in conference play. Eagles' HC Creighton gets the best out of his limited talent. And EMU has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. And you can't ignore Creighton's amazing 24-5-2 ATS mark on the road following a loss. And the Eagles are a sweet 10-1 ATS as a conference dog of more than 4 points vs a greater than .500 opponent off a SU win. And throw in EMU's 9-1 ATS mark as a weekday road dog, and we're taking the generous amount of points here. 

Bowling Green/Kent State 7:00: Golden Flashes off a demoralizing loss to their neighbor - Akron. That is simply the Super Bowl for bragging rights in Northeastern Ohio. Consequently, they now have little to play for since there is no bowl or even winning record in the offing. Kent's pedestrian offense (131st of FBS schools) that can't close (1.6 PPG in 4th quarter), should succumb to a pretty good Falcons' defense. Offensively, Falcons far from a juggernaut but do have a decent run game when hitching the wagon to RB Stewart (85 YPG). See this as wearing down the Flashes over the course of the game. BG playing for a bowl game with a win. Falcons should run away with it. 

Ball State/NIU 7:00: Cardinals down but not out. Although losing 5 of their last 6 games, they've covered 3 straight. And their defense is allowing just 19.5 PPG over their last 4 games. In this series, Ball State won 3 of the last 4 meetings. And the last 5 in this series was decided by less than 8 points. Cardinals' offense a concern; after all, they rank in the bottom of the FBS. They've had QB issues but HC Neu has settled on duel threat Kiael Kelly who's more dangerous with legs than arm; fortunately, NIU defense has trouble stopping the run allowing 169 YPG/4.5 YPC. Cardinals will most likely feed Marquez Cooper the rock. Cooper is on his way to his third consecutive 1000+ rush season. Cardinals will look to cover ground and eat clock to limit time with NIU's QB Lombardi and company. NIU 0-5 ATS as a home favorite after allowing 35+. Ball State the call. 

Army/Air Force 2:30: Army really struggling to gain traction this season. The primary reason for their demise is the inexplicable decision to go to a shotgun spread offense. They don't have the personnel with speed, quickness and accuracy at QB to stretch a field and win on one-on-one matchups. And their undersized offensive line won't intimidate the attacking defense of Air Force ranked #3 in the nation in yards allowed and #4 in points allowed. On the other hand, Air Force ground game #1 in the nation -grinding out 300 YPG led by steady QB Zac Larrier. Army's run-stop-unit is allowing a generous 183 YPG. Army has covered four straight in this series but the Falcons are laser focused on this one to bring home the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. This one is played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Lay the wood with Air Force. 

Arizona State/Utah 2:00: It might seem like I'm playing with fire here with an ornery Utah team coming off their biggest loss of the season. But the Utes are struggling to generate offense with uncertainty at QB. They've been unable to fill the void of injured Cameron Rising. Meanwhile, Arizona State is quietly building a pretty good program under first year HC Dillingham. The Sun Devils' defense did an amazing job vs Washington and Heisman frontrunner Penix Jr. picking him off twice and shutting down the run game. Sun Devils' QB Bourguet doing a pretty good job. And when RB Skattebo gets 11 or more carries, Sun Devils 4-0-1 ATS. We'll look for Arizona State to keep pounding the rock today. Arizona State the call. 

Notre Dame/Clemson Noon: Not ready to anoint Notre Dame as a major FBS contender; at the same time, not going to write off the Tigers. Notre Dame hasn't played this caliber of a defense since Week 5 vs Ohio State. Tigers are allowing just 4.3 yards per play (8th nationally). And given one or two plays over Clemson's last 3 losses, they could be sitting at 7-1. In those losses, the Tigers had self-inflicted mistakes such as penalties, QB failure on pre-snap read. Remember, Clemson had #4 ranked Florida State on the ropes before Clemson QB Klubnik failed to recognized pre-snap blitz off the edge. Clemson will be looking to avenge last year's 35-14 embarrassing defeat. Tigers need to get back to establishing run game with Shipley to relieve pressure off Klubnik. Lots of attention this week on the demise of Clemson's program while too much praise for ND after blowout win over quarterback deficient Pittsburgh. ND just 2-8 ATS after Pittsburgh. And keep in mind, Clemson's HC Swinney has won 142 games last 12 seasons with 10+ wins each season. That's only second to Alabama's Nick Saban. Take the points at home with Clemson.  

Kansas State/Texas Noon: Questions pop up regarding if Kansas State is a legitimate Big 12 contender; after all, they've had issues on the road. However, they answered with an emphatic "yes" October 14th with a solid win at Texas Tech. The Wildcats then went home and blew out TCU and Houston by a combined score of 82-3! Got to like a team with great defense and can run the football (#5 rush team in nation). Kansas State ranks in the Top 15 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. And they've been solid in special teams for decades. Meanwhile, Texas remains a formidable contender at 7-1 SU with a win at Alabama in its trophy case; however, that with Ewers at QB. Ewers is out with an A/C joint separation in throwing shoulder. Sure, his replacement - redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy looked good against BYU. We'll see if he can hold up against the heat of Kansas State. We'll bet against him. Kansas State eager to snap six game slide in this series and has a legitimate shot. Take the points. 

Boston College/Syracuse 7:30: Teams running hot and cold. BC on a four-game run while Syracuse on a four-game slide. Syracuse HC Babers in a familiar trend with protracted losing streaks. He's dropped 4 or more in 5 of the last 7 years. Sure, 'Cuse had a difficult schedule during their losing run taking on the likes of Clemson, NC, Florida State and Virginia Tech - last 3 on the road; however, they lost by a combined 150-34. BC took Florida State to the wire (2-point loss). BC has a running game that's ramped up with versatile QB Castellanos running the show. And defensively, they've flipped the switch. The first four games of the year, the Eagles allowed over 27 PPG. Over their four-game win streak they allowed under 24 PPG. Syracuse won this game at Chestnut Hill last year; however, worth noting that the Orange are a dismal 0-10 ATS vs less than a .666 opponent with revenge. On the flip side, BC a sweet 17-1 ATS with conference revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. Eagles the call. 

Kent State/Akron 7:30: Both teams struggling bad. Akron's season took a downward plunge when QB DJ Irons went down late with an ACL vs Buffalo September 30th. Replacement QBs Undercuffler and Bullock have not gotten it done. What the Zips can lean on, however, is their veteran offensive line and the run game with RB Lingard (5.1 YPC). He's also an asset out of the backfield as a key check down receiver. WRs George and Gathings are decent targets if Undercuffler can get them the ball. Fortunately, Kent State defense is yielding (bottom tier of NCAA) and have trouble sacking the QB (less than 1 sack per game). Defensively, Akron not bad but gives up explosive plays. Again, fortunately for the Zips, the Flashes have a pedestrian offense at the bare bottom tier FBS competition. This game means everything to Akron. It is for the Wagon Wheel and the Zips have lost to their crosstown enemy four straight times. We'll lean on the veteran players of Akron to utilize the strength of their line and control the line of scrimmage. Kent State is 1-9 ATS off back-to-back SU loss vs an opponent with revenge. Go Zips!

Northern Illinois/CM 7:00: Huskies 0-6 ATS vs conference opponent off SU favorite loss. CM got shocked last week vs lightweight Ball State. But look for Chippewas' to bounce back here. They're in desperation mode in their division and covered 8 of the last 9 in this series. This line has moved sharply to give us good value with the home team. Mcelwain may go with QB Emmanuel to give his lethargic offense a boost at this crucial juncture of the season. Central Michigan the call. 

Kentucky/Tennessee 7:00: Tennessee was within grasp of knocking off Alabama last week; as a matter of fact, prior to that game, Vol's HC Heupel was 22-0 with a lead at halftime. Tonight, look for Tennessee to bounce back strong. Vol's are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. They've covered at Lexington five straight times. Kentucky is coming off back-to-back losses after a strong start. They're off a bye week but just 1-6 ATS with rest. Kentucky defense has struggled against fast tempo offenses. Defensively, they're not deep enough up front and have been shredded in the secondary to the tune of 68% completions. Look for Tennessee QB Milton to get back on track. Kentucky offense has a run game but QB Leary not getting it done. They're facing a very good Tennessee defense that's well rounded across the board. Tennessee the call. 

Arkansas State/ULM 5:00: This should be the year that the UL Monroe finally defeats the Red Wolves. ULL has lost 10 times SU/ATS to Arkansas State. The Warhawks lost their last two games but covered in strong efforts. Bowden has them playing hard covering 3 of their last 4 games. On the other hand, Arkansas State dropped two straight in sluggish outings. Defense has been problematic for Butch Jones' bunch. Edge to ULM today to finally break the streak. 

Iowa State/Baylor 3:30: Iowa State offense finally starting to get it together. They're coming off back-to-back wins over TCU and Cincinnati. They've had a week of rest and looking for double revenge from two close losses in 2021-22. Baylor's defense has not been good. They've allowed too many explosive plays and have trouble stopping the run (199 YPG). They allow a generous 30 PPG. Offensively, a mediocre offense. Iowa State has a great DC in Jon Heacock. The Cyclones have a ball hawking secondary and are tough to score on in the red zone. Cyclones the call. 

West Virginia/Central Florida Noon: Both teams struggling. WV dropped two straight while UCF is on an 0-4 SU slide. UCF can run the ball and have a veteran QB in Plumlee; however, defensively, very yielding vs the run (allow 196.3 YPG). WV has a solid running game (191.4 YPG) and an offensive line that protects their QB Garrett Greene - allowing just 1.1 sacks per game. Greene won't dazzle you with numbers but is a good field general possessing versatility on the ground and through the air. West Virginia defense leaves much to be desired. They make plays early but need to close out games (allowing 10.3 PPG in 4th quarter). We'll look for WV to keep it tight. Neal Brown a sweet 14-3 ATS in games when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. 

NMS/LT 7:00: Two teams going in different directions. LT on a 1-4 SU slide; meanwhile, the Aggies have won 4 of the last 5 as Jerry Kill continues his great history of turning around losing teams. Aggies have a good leader on offense in Pavia. He's tough, mobile and increased his pass % from 53% to 62% from a year ago. LT defense does play the pass well; however, that's because they can't stop the run - allowing nearly 200 YPG and 5 YPC (111th nationally). Offensively, the o-line has its share of trouble protecting the QB and give up too many TFLs (101st). NMS 10-2 ATS as a road dog of less than 21 points off a double-digit SU win. NMS the call. 

Clemson/Miami Florida 8:00: Both teams coming off a bye week; however, Miami Florida has a two-game losing streak while Clemson is on a two-game winning run. 'Canes need some cleaning up; after all, they've killed themselves with fumbles (109th nationally), interceptions (Van Dyke threw 5 last 2 games), penalties (128th nationally), and coaching errors (failure to take a knee vs GT). Meanwhile, Tigers' HC Swinney has QB Klubnik progressing well, good running game behind Shipley (450 rush yards) and a defense that ranks 4th in points allowed. 'Canes have not beaten Clemson since 2010. We'll look for Swinney to get his 166th win tonight with a cover. 

Duke/Fla State 7:30: Duke HC Mike Elko has certainly turned this program into a legitimate contender in the ACC. They laid a beat down on Clemson (My Top Play) Week 1 and followed up with solid wins. In their only defeat, lost in the last minute to Notre Dame. Duke has a solid defense with a well-coached secondary. Offensively, I, like the rest of the Duke bettor universe, hoping that QB Riley Leonard (ankle sprain) is ready. He's had about 20 days to heal and prepare. Although, Belin IV stepped in to do enough to secure a win vs NC State last week. Duke has a veteran offensive line that's doing a sensational job opening holes for the running backs and protecting the QBs. We're taking the points. 

Ole Miss/Auburn 7:00: Auburn on an 0-3 SU slide including last week's 48-18 demolition in Baton Rouge. Don't count the Tigers out. Hugh Freeze is a sweet 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS as an SEC dog of less than 7 points. The Tigers have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series. And although Ole Miss looks like the clearcut favorite to thrash the offensively challenged Tigers, they have their weaknesses. Rebels' secondary has been torched repeatedly this year (261.5 YPG -112th nationally) and it may be what the doctor ordered for the struggling QBs of Auburn. Fortunately, the Tigers have a ground game (192 YPG) and a respectable defense that is stewing over last week's no show. Ole Miss a money burning 4-24-2 ATS as a road favorite of less than 16 points. Auburn the call. 

Tennessee/Alabama 3:30: Alabama has built a powerhouse under Saban, and although a Top 10 team, this team is down a notch from previous years. Their main concern is inconsistent play from their QB Milroe. He completed under 50% of his passes last week against a middle of the road secondary (Arkansas). He is more dangerous with his feet than through the air. And Alabama's QBs have collectively been sacked 4.4 times per game (129th nationally). Today, they take on a Top 20 defense that gets after the QB (4th nationally in sacks per game). Defense is where the Vol's have shown most of their improvement from previous seasons. And Tennessee still has a solid offense that can run the football (231 YPG - 6th nationally). Uber potential QB Joe Milton hasn't matured but he's got a great mentor in HC Heupel who puts him in winning situations. Heupel is leading Tennessee in the right direction and gaining yearly in the recruiting wars. Sure, Tennessee is playing into revenge (52-49 LY in Knoxville) but very able to hang today. 

Penn State/OSU Noon: I never like going against OSU in big games for their pool of talent and coaching has been outstanding for decades, not to mention they get up for big games; therefore, a money line bet on Penn State I will not go with; after all, Penn State HC Franklin is 1-8 SU vs the Buckeyes, including six straight losses. He's never beaten OSU in Columbus. The good news, however, Penn State has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series including three straight in Columbus. Franklin has arguably assembled his best team in his tenure. Although the Lions have played a relatively light schedule, their defense has been lights out, ranking in the Top 5 in virtually every statistical category. Offensively, their 5* recruit - Sophomore Drew Allar is already on the NFL radar. He sports a 65% completion, 12 TD/0 INT. OSU defense is #3 in the nation in scoring allowed. Their best qualities include limiting explosive plays and tightening immensely in the red zone. Penn State, however, can finish. Their well-balanced offense scores 44 PPG (6th nationally). Allar has the support of a potent ground game, really good skill weapons and a very good offensive line (0.7 sacks per game allowed). OSU defense ranks in the bottom tier in the nation in sacks, fumble recoveries and interceptions. Technically, Penn State a sweet 16-0-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins vs conference opponent. And they're 5-1 ATS as a road dog of less than 6 points with revenge. We'll take the points.

New Mexico State/UTEP 9:00: Double revenge game for the Aggies and they're equipped to get it done. Aggies are led by QB Diego Pavia who improved tremendously from a year ago. Last year vs UTEP, Pavia went just 7 of 20 for 100 yards through the air. And his backup - Frakes - threw a costly interception that allowed UTEP to pull away. This season, Pavia has developed into a dangerous duel threat. He's got good support on the line and in skill positions. Aggies are averaging a healthy 7.7 yards per play offensively - 5th in nation. Miners struggle to stop the run (allow 177 YPG) which should open the door for the Aggies to gain traction tonight. UTEP offensively, went with Cade McConnell last week as the starter. McConnell was 4th string going into camp, but injuries enabled him to climb ranks quickly. He was sharp last week vs a soft FIU defense. Aggies' defense shouldn't allow him to gain confidence tonight. Technically, UTEP a disturbing 0-8 ATS vs an opponent with revenge and 0-7 ATS as a conference home dog of less than 23 points vs greater than .500 foe. NMS the call. 

Western Kentucky/Jacksonville State 7:30: Pretty good matchup for the Gamecocks here. Run dominant "Rich Rod" offense couldn't get the ball moving against a tough Liberty team; consequently, Liberty covered easily (my top play). However, Western Kentucky has their weaknesses in the run stop unit allowing a generous 194 YPG on 4.6 YPC - bottom tier of FBS teams. On the flip side, WKY does have a QB Austin Reed and a dangerous receiver in Corley. The WKY run game won't strike fear in teams at 103 YPG and Gamecocks are sound against the run (allow 3 YPC). JSU is a Top 10 team pressuring QBs. Look for well-disciplined JSU defense to scheme well to limit explosive plays tonight. Take the points. 

Oregon/Washington 3:30: Two PAC 12 heavyweights but will give the edge to the favorite on their loud home field (Husky Stadium). Bo Nix is impressive but jury still out if he can step up his game on the road in a big conference game. Huskies' HC Deboer is a winner and he's had an extra week to prep. Huskies 7-1 ATS at home vs an opponent with rest. Former Georgia Bulldog DC now HC Lanning has Oregon's defense playing at a high level; however, QB Penix Jr. has shredded most secondaries over the last few years and not going to stop here. Washington the call. 

Texas A&M/Tennessee 3:30: Two SEC heavyweights clash but scheduling advantage to Tennessee. Both teams equipped with productive offenses and aggressive defenses that can get after the QB. We'll give the edge to Joe Milton and company. Tennessee is well rested after their 21-point burial of South Carolina back on 9/30. They've had this past week to rest and heal. Meanwhile, Aggies coming off a bruising battle in a loss to Alabama. HC Fisher now sports a money burning 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS mark as a dog of less than 5 points. And the Aggies are a dismal 1-11 ATS vs an opponent with rest off a SU/ATS win. With the Volunteers at a sweet 10-1 ATS vs conference opponent off SU/ATS loss, we'll jump on the Volunteers here. 

Michigan State/Rutgers Noon: I thought this line would be near a TD considering all the issues going on at Michigan State. Since Mel Tucker's unceremonious exit, the Spartans have been outscored 98-32 during their three-game skid. Harlon Barnett trying to hold the program together but defections lining up and on field turnovers (12) including nine over last two games, will not get it done. Rutgers has a solid Top15 defense that should give the Spartans' sputtering offense (111th nation) trouble. And throw in double revenge for Schiano, including 27-21 last year at East Lansing as a 10-point dog, and we got a play with the non-explosive but meticulous ball control Rutgers' team that hangs its hat on tough defense and a consistent ground game to wear down an opponent. We'll take it. Rutgers the call. 

Iowa State/Cincinnati Noon: On the stat sheet, Cincinnati dominates in virtually every category vs Iowa State. However, turnovers are keeping the Bearcats from winning football games. QB Emory Jones, who made stops at Florida and ASU before coming to Cincinnati, has thrown 5 TDs but 6 INTs won't have an easy time vs Iowa State's ball hawking secondary which got 4 picks vs TCU last week. On the flip side, Cyclones' QB Rocco Becht will not make Iowa State forget about Brock Purdy anytime soon. Becht does manage the game well with a 10:5 TD:INT ratio, and relies on a sturdy run game with Sanders, Sama III and Norton. Bearcats are coming off a bye, but not sold on Satterfield off byes. When he was at Louisville, 0-7 ATS with rest vs .500 or less opponent. Iowa State the call in the first ever meeting between these schools. 

Fresno State/Utah State 8:00: Statistically, Fresno State has a Top 25 defense in terms of yards given up and points allowed; however, closer look reveals a relatively light schedule vs impotent offenses. Last week, Fresno's defense was exposed against Wyoming (my free pick) which methodically worked their way down the field with the run and play action. Utah State has a potent offense (15th scoring nationally) that has a fine run/pass mix led by Cooper Legas (69% completion 10/4 TD/INT). Fresno can move the football too and Utah State is yielding defensively. But at a trading points standpoint, the Aggies can hang on their home field. Utah State HC Blake Anderson is a sweet 16-4 SU/ATS in conference games when coming off a win of more than 17 points. On the flip side, Bulldogs an ugly 0-11 ATS as a road favorite of more than 3 points off a SU/ATS loss. Utah State the call. 

West Virginia/Houston 7:00: West Virginia has a sound football team this year that isn't flashy but gets the job done. After an opening season loss to Penn State, the Mountaineers have reeled off four straight wins. They're winning with a solid run game, limiting mistakes, and playing tough defense. QB Greene won't overwhelm you with stats but he's a good leader, can run the football and limits mistakes (0 interceptions). On the other hand, Holgorsen (former WV head coach) and his bunch got blown out by two teams (TCU & Texas Tech) the Mountaineers beat. And they also lost to their in-state stepbrother - pass happy Rice. The Cougars' offense is good but their defense leaves much to be desired. Cougars sport a sluggish 106th ranked defense that allows a generous 4.6 YPC. Both of these teams are well rested, dormant since 9/30. Houston is a money burning 0-5 ATS at home with rest. WV a sweet 5-0 ATS on weekdays. We'll lay a FG on the road with West Virginia. 

Sam Houston State/New Mexico State 9:00: I was on NMS last Wednesday but I'm jumping off them tonight. Don't sleep on this Sam Houston team. They may be 0-5 SU but 3-1-1 ATS, have gotten better offensively each week, and have a leader (K.C. Keeler) who can flat out coach. The Bearkats may have one of the worst offenses in college football but have shown significant improvement recently, including against the class of Conference-USA -Liberty last week. They have a few weapons who are emerging in Noah Smith and Al'vonte Woodard. QB Shoemaker improving. New Mexico State has one of the weaker defenses SHS has faced this season. On the other hand, the Bearkats' defense has taken on some very good offenses in their tough schedule this year and only allowed 24.2 PPG. They're up for the task of limiting the Aggies' offense tonight. NMS has been inconsistent this season alternating losses and wins. They're coming off a big win at home on the 4th against FIU but won't have an easy time tonight. SHS the call. 

Analysis to follow..

LT/MTS 7:00: Blue Raiders record not indicative of the quality of their team. They faced Alabama and easily covered in Missouri. And last week, they had a good Jacksonville State team on the ropes but let them off the hook in the second half. Versatile QB Vattiato is a pretty good QB who occasionally forces throws. LT defense allows explosive plays and allows a generous 5.1 YPC on the ground. MTS does not have a proficient run game to thoroughly take advantage of it but can move the football enough to take pressure off Vattiato. Defensively, MTS much underrated. They dominated the line of scrimmage against JSU before turnovers led to the whitewash. LT may have QB Bachmeier (shoulder) back for this one. He's much better than Jack Turner. Still give edge to hungry Blue Raiders who are 8-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs less than .500 team. Throw in revenge from last year's 40-24 loss, and we'll lay the FG. 

Oregon State/California 10:00: Beavers clearly the better team here but they're coming off an emotional revenge win over Utah. They now travel to Berkeley where they've failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 attempts and playing into revenge from last season's 38-10 blasting. The Beavers won't have two key defensive players to start the first half (LB Hart Jr./DL Rawls) - both the subjects of targeting last week; consequently, Bears should be able to grind out some yards on the ground where they average 212 per game. On the other hand, Bears' defense remains respectable this season under defensive minded HC Wilcox. California is 10-1 ATS off a SU win vs greater than .666 opponent off a SU win. And they're 4-0 ATS after Arizona State. Take the points with the home team. 

Kentucky/Georgia 7:00: Stoops has been knocking at the door to enter the FBS elite; today, will be the quintessential test in knocking down that door. Georgia has won 13 straight in this series. And although Kentucky hasn't won SU in this series since 2009 at Athens 34-27, the Wildcats have covered 4 straight vs the Bulldogs. Like Georgia, Kentucky is off to a good start (5-0 SU) yet have a more experienced group of players back from last year's bowl team; as a matter of fact, last season no other team in the FBS started more freshmen than Kentucky. Add to that a few transfer portal players in QB Leary (NC State) and RB Ray Davis (Vanderbilt) who gashed the Florida defense last week for 280 yards rushing. Kentucky's veteran offensive line led the way to 329 yards rushing last week against a pretty good Florida defense! Keep in mind that Georgia lost 15 players to the NFL and another 10 to the transfer portal. Sure, they've reloaded through recruiting (#2) but the defensive numbers are down sharply from a year ago. Defensively, Kentucky enters this game bringing a Top 20 defense. Stoops will surely scheme around stopping the Bulldogs' best offensive weapon - TE Brock Bowers. Wildcats a sweet 6-0 ATS as a dog of more than 11 points. Kentucky the call.  

Kent State/Ohio U 3:30: Kent State in rebuilding mode with one of the worst offenses in FBS this year, scoring a meager 12.6 PPG. They face a Bobcats' defense that is Top 5 in yards allowed and points allowed with a ball hawking secondary. Ohio does not possess an explosive offense but should eventually wear down the pedestrian Flashes' offense to put this one away late. And they won't mind rubbing it in with double revenge in mind. Kent is 1-9 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs an opponent with revenge. 

Rutgers/Wisconsin Noon: On the surface, Rutgers statistically strong vs the run; however, as we delve deeper, we see that Michigan ran all over them to the tune of 201 yards. Wisconsin has changed its offense under new OC Phil Longo but still love running the rock behind behemoth offensive linemen. Sure, Mellusi (leg) is out but his backup - Braelon Allen is averaging a whopping 7.1 YPC. And SMU transfer Mordecai has a plethora of receiving weaponry at his disposal. On the defensive side of the ball, Fickell is gradually shaping his defense into a Top 25 unit like he did at Cincinnati. Each week, I see the progression. Rutgers' offense looks good vs a Wagner, but not quite ready against the big boys of the Big 10. We'll lay the wood here. 

Boston College/Army Noon: Boston College coming off a satisfying come from behind win over struggling Virginia. Meanwhile, Army had the week off to stew over their second half collapse against Syracuse on 9/23. QB Bryson Daily threw two costly interceptions to seal Army's fate. The well-disciplined Knights have made a winning history of avoiding getting behind the sticks. This year, they've gone into the shotgun but still have the run-game a staple of their offense. Army has grinded out 219.5 YPG this season. Look for Army to attack a Boston College run-stop-unit that allows 4.2 YPC. Getting on the scoreboard early against the BC defense which allows 162 YPG, will be crucial. BC offense is notoriously slow out of the gate this year scoring a paltry 2.8 points average in the first quarter. We'll look for Monken's well-disciplined Black Knights to start strong and this time finish. 

Jacksonville State/MTS 8:00: Rich Rodriguez, who was a major contributor to the outset of the no huddle, run oriented version of the spread offense. He did his best work as the HC of West Virginia, leading the Mounties to the 2005, 2006 Sugar Bowl, Gator Bowl wins. After failed stops at Michigan and Arizona, Rodriguez landed at Jacksonville State and guided the Gamecocks to a 9-2 record while scoring 34 PPG in the process. Lots of those starters returned this season as the Gamecocks land in Conference USA. They're proving they're worthy at 4-1 SU/ATS. Run game is cooking at 224 YPG (4.8 YPC) while QB Logan Smothers has been respectable running the offense (5 TD/O INTs). The Gamecocks play pretty good defense with a ball hawking secondary (1.6 INTs a game). Blue Raiders are just 1-4 SU/ATS but have taken on a tough non-conference schedule including two SEC teams. But fair value here with well-run Jacksonville State. We'll take the points. 

East Carolina/Rice 7:00:  Rice is 3-1 ATS, including covers at Texas and an outright win at home vs Houston. Defensively, they're yielding and give up yards and explosive plays. Today, however, they face a pedestrian offense (4.3 YPP) with little explosive play potential. And that's including last week's 44-0 demolition over lightweight Gardner-Webb. They're unsettled at QB after record setting QB Ahlers left. Flinn and Garcia rotate in at QB in an offense that produces a paltry 282.5 YPG. On the other hand, Rice has an offense capable of outscoring its opponent. Vagabond QB J.T. Daniels, who went from USC to Georgia, West Virginia, and now calling the signals at Rice. He airs it out in a pass happy offense. He sports a respectable 11/3 TD/INT. East Carolina has exhibited little pass rush at 0.8 sacks per game. Daniels should put up some big numbers today and outshoot the Pirates. 

Miami OH/Kent State 2:30: Since their opening day loss at Miami Florida, Miami OH has won and covered three straight, including impressive win at Cincinnati. The Redhawks have lots of returning production from last year's bowl eligible team. They've been a solid defense over the last few years under HC Martin and usually dominate inferior teams. Kent State, their conference rival, is an inferior team. The Flashes were gutted with transfers, coaches and graduating players. They're dead last in the NCAA FBS in returning production from last year. And so far, they're playing like it. Set aside FCS lightweight Central Connecticut University, and the Flashes have scored a meager 22 combined points against FBS opponents. Miami-OH should choke them out defensively; at the same time, the Red Hawks have some offensive prowess with QB Brett Gabbert (9/3 TD/INT) and a run game generated last week (466 yards with multiple backs). Kent State defense not much better than FCS punching bag Delaware State. Miami Ohio also has solid special teams which could come into play. Lay the wood with the traveling Redhawks.  

Clemson/Syracuse Noon: Syracuse turning in a good season with some good returning talent from last year's team. Garrett Shrader is a pretty good QB who fuels off the Syracuse strong run game. Unfortunately, Clemson boasts a Top Ten run stop unit that allows 2.7 YPC. It's one thing for Syracuse to move the football on Colgate, Western Michigan, Purdue and Army; however, Clemson defense, unlike the aforementioned, in the top tier. Offensively, Clemson made a few critical errors to cost them the game last week vs #5 Florida State. One being QB Klubnik - pre-snap and snap unaware of free rush blitzer off edge, clearly changed momentum and cost them the game; consequently, that will be addressed in the film room/practice for the talented but inexperienced QB. All things considered, Clemson offense is starting to gel under Clemson first year OC Riley. Surrounding talent is there with run game (Shipley), wideouts, and offensive line. Technically, Clemson an amazing 13-0 ATS as a road favorite of more than 6 points vs an opponent with revenge off a SU/ATS win. Clemson the call. 

Florida/Kentucky Noon: Florida coach Napier at his best when a dog of 4' or less at 10-1 ATS. His boys are looking to avenge last year's 26-16 loss at the Swamp. Both teams equipped with Top 25 defenses but the Gators are a bit more experienced and talented offensively. Veteran signal caller Mertz has a solid supporting cast, including Pearsall and RB Etienne. We'll look for the Gators to get er done. 

Utah/Oregon State 9:00: Utes a dynamic team on both sides of the ball under Whittingham. They're coming off a win vs UCLA but still no Cameron Rising (ACL). Rising was questionable last week before UCLA and is taking snaps with the first unit but still no "thumbs up" from his orthopedic surgeon. That leaves versatile QB Nate Johnson at the helm again. The good news is Johnson is secure with the football (no INTs), the bad news is only 2 TD passes in 3 games. Beavers' secondary was toasted by Washington State last week, but don't believe the Utes can take advantage of that with Johnson. Fortunately, the Utes have a Top 10 defense that flips field position often. Tonight, however, Utes may need a more dynamic offense to trade points with the potent Beavers. Beavers possess a strong running game (6.3 YPC) to help out QB Uiagalelei, who's putting up some big numbers. And he's comfortable, like his teammates, on this field where they've won 11 straight. Throw in 42-26 revenge from last year's drubbing in Utah, and we'll side with Oregon State. 

Louisville/NC State 7:00: NC State winning games but not covering. Despite the talent, they continue to underachieve under HC Doeren.  QB Armstrong not the guy he was at Virginia as the offense is stuck in neutral; consequently, it's having an effect on their defense. The Wolfpack no longer has a Top 25 defense. Louisville is potent offensively under Brohm. He did some great things with Western Kentucky and Purdue, and now - Louisville. Plummer starting to see the field better as the Cardinals are heating up. Cardinals a sweet 9-0 ATS as favorites vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Cardinals the call. 

Ohio State/ND 7:30: Last season, in Freeman's first game as HC, the Irish went into Ohio Stadium and played Stroud and company tough in a 21-10 loss but cover (+17). Tonight, the Buckeyes, with a QB (McCord) who has just 5 starts, will go into the frenzied South Bend Notre Dame Stadium against a Top 10 defense. It's one thing to drop 318 on a Western Kentucky, but against the #9 Irish, should be a different story. On the other hand, Irish QB Sam Hartman will make his 49th career start. Of course, he's got his work cut out for him against the #2 scoring defense in the nation. Hartman has been well schooled over the course of his career (Wake Forest) and should be up to the task. He's got a solid surrounding cast including a serious run game with Estime and explosive play WR weaponry with Merriweather and Tyree. When the Irish outgain their opponent, they usually win as their 44-0 SU record in that role indicates. Irish the call.  

Ole Miss/Alabama 3:30: Nick Saban has had tremendous success reloading coaching staffs and NFL drafted players. He did claim the #1 recruiting class for 2023; however, this coaching staff and player group is not gelling yet. A lot of miscommunication on the sidelines during Texas game between DC Steele and defensive backs coach Robinson. Moreover, QB play has been shaky at best under new OC Rees. Saban's going back to Jalen Milroe who threw 2 INTs vs Texas. Buchner and Simpson are not ready yet. On the other hand, Ole Miss has the continuity in the program to succeed here. They've been scratching at the door for a few years including a 30-24 (+11) loss/cover at home last season. Veteran journeyman QB Dart has developed well in his time with Kiffin. And the Rebels now have a run game that's rolling. Moreover, the defense has improved dramatically over the last few years. A good amount of returning production on a veteran team for the Rebels should give us a cover in Tuscaloosa. 

Maryland/Michigan State 3:30: Michigan State program in tatters as Mel Tucker (suspended) is on his way out and defensive back coach - Harlon Barnett trying to hold the program together. Last week, Washington walked into East Lansing and dropped a 41-7 whitewashing on them. Maryland has very good skill players including QB Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's little brother) who's having another solid season (67% completions). Michigan State can rush the passer but their strength is also a big weakness. The overly aggressive blitz packages the Spartans dial up result in repeated explosive plays given up; as a matter of fact, they're 99th in the nation vs the pass and 121st in completion % allowed at 67%. Maryland HC Locksley usually strong in early season action and should follow up with win and cover here. 

Florida State/Clemson Noon: Florida State eager to seek revenge against a Clemson team that's had their number. Clemson 5-0 SU/ATS last 5 in series and 3-0 SU/ATS in Death Valley. No doubt, Jordan Travis is a good QB, and I backed him and the 'Noles vs LSU, but he'll face the best defense of the season here. Clemson is a Top 10 defense in a number of categories. On the other hand, Florida State defense yielding - allowing a mediocre Boston College team to run up and down the field on them - barely escaping for the win. Clemson, which I bet against vs Duke, has gotten its offense in rhythm under Garrett Riley over the last few games. QB Klubnik is now ready to step up his game against a top contender. Swinney always dangerous as a dog, including 8-1 ATS after score 35+. Clemson the call.    

Auburn/Texas A&M Noon: Texas A&M underachieved last year despite landing the #1 recruiting class. And the Aggies already disappointed at Miami Fla as a favorite. Today, they're looking to avenge Auburn to whom they lost 13-10. Sure, Aggies have lots a returning production back and nearly all starters back; however, Auburn has an equal amount of returning production and 16 starters from last year's bunch. Moreover, they have a winning head coach in Hugh Freeze running the show. And Freeze is a ridiculous 14-5 ATS as an SEC dog, including 4-1 ATS vs Saban's Crimson Tide. Auburn defense 18th nationally in points allowed. We'll take the points here.