WF/NC State 8:00: Both of these teams can light it up when they're on and I'm looking for a hot shooting night. NC State got smothered Sunday against THE best defense in the NCAA - Virginia. Tonight, shooting against WF, should seem like a major breath of fresh air; after all, the Demon Deacons allow a generous 74 PPG and 40% from 3 point range. NC State can shoot well on its home floor; at the same time, the Wolfpack is no defensive juggernaut. NC State allows nearly as many points as they make. WF has a number of 3 point marksmen and should find easy looks. WF is 17-5 O/U vs ACC foes and this series has gone "over" in 4 of the last 5 at NC State. Over it is.

Cleveland/Golden State 9:00: Golden State was lazy on the perimeter on Friday; consequently, Cleveland drained a 3pt. record setting barrage on the Warriors. Unlikely to happen on this floor though. Golden State sports a 1-11 O/U mark off a SU loss and 3-9 O/U after allowing 125+ points. This series has gone 1-7-2 O/U at this venue. This is the highest total ever for a final and I'm going against the grain and staying "under" while looking for less shots dropping with the increased defensive effort on the perimeter.

Cleveland/Golden State 9:00: Inflated total based on a few important factors. This series at Golden State has gone 1-8-2 O/U; moreover, looking at the history of those scores reveals an average of about 198 with the only top heavy number of 217 coming in its January 16th matchup. I do realize Cleveland's defense not what it was a year ago and, of course, Durant is added offensive weaponry to what was already a potent Warriors' team; nevertheless, 226 is slightly over-adjusted. The Warriors are 7-20 O/U vs Eastern Conference foes while Cleveland has been slightly on the "over" side against Western Conference foes at 16-14 O/U. But considering the magnitude of this game, the amount of time off for prep, and how important it plays in determining control of the series, I'm going to anticipate better tactical defensive schemes, and maximum defensive effort. History has it that Game 1 of the NBA Finals is 3-9-1 O/U since 2004. We'll stay with that trend Thursday.

Cavaliers/Celtics 8:30: Expected this 'total' to be set at around 210-212 but got a surprise at 219'. This series has gone Under in 10 of the last 14 meetings and 0-6 O/U at Boston! There will be matchup advantages in this series but ultimately this "total" is overinflated. "Under" the call.

Wizards/Celtics 8:00: Heavy "over" trends in Boston and I'm not jumping off here. Baskets were tempered on Friday as both benches gave little offensive production. Line over-adjusted to the lowest total in years in this series! This series has gone 4-1 O/U at Boston with an average of 227 PPG and a range of 212 to 248 (OT). Both of these teams have their share of defensive liabilities. And each team healthy, well rested (2 days) and equipped with speed and good transition; consequently, a good balance for high scoring in a tightly contested G7. And because of that, I'll look for heavy fouling to put points on the board when the clock is not running. Boston is 6-1 O/U off a SU loss and 4-0 O/U last 4 homeys. Washington 35-16 O/U traveling. Over it is! 

Boston/Washington 8:00: Still value with the 'over' in this high scoring series. The Over has hit 4 of the last 5 meetings and this series has averaged around 217.5 over the last four games played in Washington. Boston is capable of trading buckets with the Wizards on this floor. Defense has been difficult to come by. In Game 5, Wizards had open looks they were unable to convert. Tonight, I see those buckets falling and we'll roll "over".

Rockets/Spurs 8:00: This series has gone 6-1-1 O/U in San Antonio and there is still value with the Over. The Rockets, which give up about 115 PPG, are without their chief post stopper (Nene) and driving to the hole or posting up one the Rockets' defensive stiffs should materialize. Spurs should be able to attack the basket without much duress. On the other hand, the Rockets have enough offensive weaponry to continue to match points. Spurs are 7-0 O/U after allowing 100+ in previous game. "Over" it is.

Spurs/Rockets 9:00PM: This series has averaged just over 200 PPG on Houston's floor over the course of four games. And the range has been quite tight with the low of 195 and high of 206. I do realize the Rockets are offensively explosive averaging 115 PPG; however, they're facing the #2 defense in the NBA, which made a masterful adjustment in holding Houston under 100 points for the second straight time. Popovich is making D'Antonio look like a bush leaguer. As expected, Houston's Harden did get back on track in G3 with 43, but other than Ariza, who made some amazing shots that are unlikely to happen two games straight, prolific scorers: Anderson, Gordan, Lou Williams and even inside force Nene were held to a combined 12 points! Spurs should play a similar style with Murray starting at the 1 with Patty Mills coming off the bench. Spurs were methodical in getting Aldridge back in rhythm and we'll look for more of the same tonight. Rockets just 2-6 O/U at home and we'll look for this series at Houston to go "Under" for the sixth straight time at Houston.

Jazz/Warriors 10:30: This series at Golden State has overwhelmingly been lower scoring going "under" 18-7-1 at Golden State. Utah is well disciplined defensively but out of their element when attempting to clamp down on Golden State -- who have too many great shooters. Monday's game featured many good looks by both teams who have great 3 pt. marksmen. For Utah, of all the great shooters on that team, defensive stopper Gobert led them with 13! Open looks were not falling but I see them falling tonight as this 'total' shrinks to 204.

Golden State/Portland 10:30: Overthinking this one can lead to trouble. Sure, the Warriors are still without offensively prolific Durant and have defensive minded Mike Brown manning the bench. And the stats lean towards the "under" after the Warriors allow 100+; however, this series is 7-1 O/U in Portland with the last 5 producing 228, 257 (OT), 231, 224, 232, respectively. Portland is not defensively sound (25th in NBA) and won't stop the #1 scoring offense in the NBA. Golden State's personnel is equipped with shooters who've established chemistry long before Durant arrived. And surely offensively challenged Coach Mike Brown isn't going to attempt to slow it down. Taking the "under" is like playing with fire in this series at Portland. "Over" is the only way to go here.

Golden State/Portland 10:30: This series has gone 19-7 O/U in the last 27 meetings, including 6-1 O/U in Portland. Tonight, I see more points for Portland as they adjust to ways of creating more offense in their comfortable confines. The last four in this series at Portland produced 228, 257 (OT), 231 and 224, respectively. And surely Durant's absence won't inhibit the explosive Golden State offense against the defenseless Blazers -- ranked 25th in the NBA in defense. We'll look for Lillard and McCollum to get more offensive support on this floor and trade buckets effectively. "Over" the call.

Cavs/Pacers 7:00: The Cavaliers have continually stressed improving defensive assignments but fall short. Cavs on an 8-2 O/U run and no defensive improvement in sight. They're also 19-7-1 O/U after allowing 100+. The Pacers are in a nice offensive rhythm averaging 111 PPG over their last 10 games. And I don't believe the Pacers' defense has the wherewithal to stop Cleveland's big three. This series is 4-1 O/U in its last 5 and still see value with the "over" here.

Thunder/Rockets 8:00: Tonight's "total" came down 5 1/2 points from Sunday's game. And considering this series has gone 5-2 O/U in its last 7 at Houston, value with the "over". Sure, in Game 1, Houston hounded Westbrook with Patrick Beverley and it worked; however, Rockets' HC D'Antoni has never been considered a defensive genius and surely won't successfully counter OKC's offensive adjustments; after all,  the offensively prolific Rockets rank in the bottom tier of the NBA defensively. In Game 1, OKC had good looks at the basket, just couldn't convert. On the other hand, OKC's defense will continue to struggle against the well oiled machine of Harden and company. Let's face it, before Sunday this series produced totals of 238, 234, 262 respectively at Houston. We'll play the percentages and go "over" as this total softened up.

Thunder/Mavericks 7:05: The "under" for this NBA Playoff year has been profitable for bettors but tonight, we got great value with the "over" at a venue where this series has gone 24-9-1 O/U. Oklahoma City, which was in a rare shooting slump for Game 2, should bounce back strong tonight. KD rarely has back-to-back poor shooting days and should light up a Dallas defense which hasn't really guarded anyone for most of the year. The wounded Mavericks are 7-3 O/U on 2 days rest and 6-2 O/U at home against a team with a winning road record. The Thunder are 4-1 O/U in their last 5 road tilts and 5-2 O/U on the road against a team with a winning home record. Nowitzki (bruised kneecap) should be able to go to help spur the hobbling Mavericks on pouring in enough points to help send this one "over".  

Thunder/Cavaliers 8:05: This series has gone 2-8 O/U in Cleveland where the Cavaliers are allowing just 95.8 PPG. The Cavaliers have the mindset that defense will create offensive opportunities and we'll look for another strong defensive effort from them here. On the other hand, the Thunder has transformed into a defense first team under Donovan and it is working in the win column. The players have bought into the system and should remain staunch defensively. OKC is 1-10 O/U in its last 10 games and 1-10 O/U vs Eastern Conference foes. Good "under" value tonight!

Clippers/Rockets 3:30: Clippers let this series slip away with an epic 4th quarter collapse in Game 6; however, a few key members have G7 experience, including this season against incumbent champ San Antonio, so G7 is not too big for the Clippers. And clearly the Rockets' defense, which has allowed an average of 113 p.p.g. throughout the playoffs, will be quite accommodating. We'll look for the 2nd ranked offense in the NBA to get back on track. On the other hand, the Rockets are rolling offensively and guys who were struggling -- Josh Smith and Brewer -- are finding their range. And keep in mind that ticky tack fouls have been a staple with this officiating crew as stone cold Harden has produced 20+ points in this playoff series not by hot shooting but from the foul line. And at one time or another, brick laying free throw shooters' Howard and Jordan are bound to cash in on a few opportunities by throwing it up near the rim enough times. Rockets are 11-2 O/U in their last 13 home games and 20-7 O/U against Western Conference teams. The last six in this series have gone "over" and I see another high scoring game with the array of three bomb shooters, ally-oop post players and slashing Chris Paul and James Harden. "Over" it is.

Rockets/Clippers 10:35: I'll admit that neither of these teams are defensive stoppers with each giving up about 101 points per game; however, we got a high total in a venue that sports a 7-20 O/U mark in this series. The last three matchups ended in 194, 205 and 198 point games respectively. Tonight, Chris Paul's absence will surely take away points from him and his superior assist ability in which there is no adequate replacement to make up the difference. Houston's defense, which has been pathetic most of the year, locks in when the Paul-less Clippers get in to their half court set. Sure, the foul shots should remain plentiful but with Jordan and Howard bricking religiously from the charity stripe, the point accumulation should be limited. The Clippers are a sweet 2-8 O/U off a SU loss too. I like the over-inflated 217 total and we'll look for this one to stay "under".

Kings/Lakers 10:35: Two sad sacks end their season here so I don't expect to see a whole lot of defensive effort; after all, both teams haven't played defense all April. Why should they start now? The Kings have allowed an average of 109 points per game this month with all but one (vs Lakers) ending below triple digits. Over the same span, the Lakers allowed 108 ppg with all but one ending in triple digit scoring. Tonight, the Kings will most likely attack the basket, similar to what they did in their most recent win against Los Angeles; after all, the Lakers are devoid of a shot blocker; therefore, more free shots at the foul line without the clock running (positive for over). One worry is the Lakers inability to generate offensive rhythm; however, the Kings' defense, or lack there-of, should allow Clarkson to stay hot and integrate some ball movement to get some good looks. Kings are 6-0 O/U against losing teams, 12-5 O/U on road and 14-5 O/U on 1 day of rest. Lakers are 21-10 O/U against losing teams. This series has a tendency to go O/U in Los Angeles at 18-8 O/U and we'll roll with it.

Spurs/Cavaliers 7:05: The Spurs usually take what the defense gives them when playing on the road and the Cavaliers don't offer much resistance; consequently, we'll look for the flexible Spurs to drop triple digits on Cleveland tonight. Cleveland is allowing a generous 104.3 ppg and should open the door for the healthy big three: Parker, Duncan, Ginobili. San Antonio is well rested after the scrimmage like win over the pathetic 'Sixers on Monday. Sure, the Spurs haven't shown consistency with offensive prowess this season; however, they displayed the offensive output they're capable of on the 11th dropping 113 at Golden State. And San Antonio is 4-1 O/U against winning teams. Of course, vengeful LeBron should bring his "A game" against the team that ended his championship run in Miami. The Cavaliers are dropping a strong 106 ppg offensively. This series is 8-1 O/U and despite the changes in personnel for Cleveland, we'll look for that "over" trend to stay healthy!