Pacers/Rockets U199 2.2* bonus[/b]
The under is 10-3 in the Pacers last 13 home games and they face the second best offense in the league tonight after back to back losses. The Pacers have the best defense at home and it is not even close. I think to win this game they know they have to bounce back with a great defensive effort. The total in the Rockets/Bulls game was 191 and the Pacers defense is much better so I totally think we are getting some value here after the public pushed it up a few points. The under is also 15-7 in the last 22 meetings.

Bobcats +6.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
The Bobcats have played better than any other team on the road this year and the Pistons come into this game in a potential let down spot after just beating the Celtics and the Pacers on the road. If anything they are a bit over valued. I don't think they play enough defense to cover this spread and the Bobcats have nothing to look ahead to while the Pistons are starring at the Rockets on Saturday night. The under dog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings as well.

[b]Twolves -2 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
This is the 4th game in 5 days all on the road for the Blazers who have to start coming down to earth. The Timberwolves are on an extra day of rest after losing 2 of 3 on the road and need a big home win. I see this team coming up with a big home win as the Blazers struggled with the Cavs last night and now Lamarcus Aldridge is not 100% after injuring his hand last game. The Twolves are without Kevin Martin, but he's only shooting 40.6% so I do not see him as a huge loss. The favorite is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings as well.

[b]Bulls -1 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
The Bulls who have been decimated by injuries are starting to get healthy as they got Jimmy Butler back in their last game and they hope to have Deng back on Saturday. The Raptors meanwhile made a big trade sending Rudy Gay away and bringing in Vasquez, Patterson and Salmons. When you mess with the dynamic of a team you will struggle a bit to find chemistry and even though they won their first game I think they will struggle on the road especially with 0 days rest and no time to practice or put a plan together to face off against a Bulls team that is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Toronto won't have enough offense in this game and the Bulls will look to build momentum off their win last night.

[b]Grizzlies +2.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
Just working our way into this NBA season with selective picks and tonight I think we have value here on the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies come into this game a bit banged up, but now they get to face a team in the Hornets who are too without their best player in Anthony Davis. Memphis also wants a little revenge after they lost to the Hornets at home in early November. The Grizzlies have been playing much better on the road and in fact have won 5 straight on the road including 2 as under dogs. The Hornets have won 7 of their last 100 but they haven't cover any of their last 8 games vs. the West. They are getting wins against the East, but when they play the West they are just over valued right now. They have not beaten an elite team at home just yet losing to the Pacers, Warriors, Mavericks and Thunder and are coming off an OT win over the Pistons. I look for Memphis to step up here and get another key road win with a little revenge. They are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning home record.

[b]Thunder +2.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
I'll take the better defensive team going up against a team off a huge win. The Blazers just beat the Pacers at home handing the Pacers only their second loss of the season. The Blazers have been a surprise this year, but I don't think they are ready to handle the intensity of back to back games against elite opponents. The Thunder dominated this series last year and have been good on 0 days rest in the past. None of their players played over 40 minutes last night so I think they'll be in good position to win this game outright.

[b]Milwaukee Bucks +3 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
30% of the public are backing these Bucks and rightfully so as they are off back to back humiliating games, but much like the NFL on any given night any NBA team can win. I would agree that's even more so true in the NBA with the game riding on less people. Washington meanwhile just won 4 of 5, and is coming off wins against the Lakers and Knicks and has caught the public's attention. They are over valued at this point and I'll fade them in the right spot. Tonight is the right spot because the Wizards have the Pacers coming up next so it's a perfect let down spot with Thankgiving to follow tomorrow. I think Bucks win this one outright.

[b]Celtics +4 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
This game was just too hard to pass up. The Celtics have revenge after losing at home to the Bobcats earlier in the season. Boston has had a very challenging schedule while the Bobcats at 7-7 are a bit phony beating bad teams and have the leagues easiest schedule only facing 4 teams over .500 to date. In all 4 of those games they lost by double digits. The Bobcats just won and I hardly would be confident in them winning back to back games with a look ahead to the Pacers. Boston is stacked with young talent and can pull off upsets on any given night. They already have 3 outright road wins as significant under dogs including at Miami.

Magic +2 4.4* NBA POD

[b]Sacramento -1.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
These two teams just faced off last night, but nowt he series moves back to Sacramento and despite a 13 point win, the Kings are favorites. The Kings early in this season go as their rookie Ben McLemore go and he picked up 4 fouls in just 7 minutes of playing time. I expect him to bounce back with the rest of this team. Demarcus Cousins seems focused and had 35 points on Friday night, now going back home they should be able to pull off a victory against a Blazers team that is a bit over rated here in the early going.

Cavs +4 4.4* NBA POD The Cavs are going to be the surprise team early on. Kyrie Irving is a super star already and they add some solid players in free agency along with #1 overall pick Anthony Bennet out of UNLV. This team is stacked with depth and are under rated. The Nets went out and got Pierce and Garnett so the hype is there for the Nets. However, we have seen with teams that bring in big names to an already talented roster struggle early in the season. These players will defer to each other since they are all talented and it will be challenging to see the chemistry come together early. However, vegas does not take those things into consideration. They know the public will jump all over the Nets especially early on. I think Vegas is gambling here too allowing people to play the Nets knowing if the Nets win and cover they'll lose money. Nets also have a bigger game on Friday at home against the Heat so a look ahead is only natural. Cavs will take this game outright.

Spurs +6 4.4* NBA POD; Spurs +230 2* bonus; Spurs/Heat U189 2.2* bonus We got robbed in game 6 on the total with it going to OT as we covered the under in regulation. Tonight I expect the defenses to be even more intense in this game. The Spurs really have dominated this series at times or at least have been in control the entire way. I don't see a blow out here in Game 7 and the Spurs are a close team with a ton of veteran leadership that went 23-5 after a loss this season, 17-11 ATS. This series has been up and down and once again everyone is counting the Spurs out. The coaching advantage is still huge as Greg Popavich had his team rally together after the game instead of head to their rooms in disgust after blowing a 10 point 4th quarter lead. The fact of the matter is the Heat laid it all on the line and should have lost. They got so lucky with offensive rebounds in the closing minutes and clutch three pointer by Ray Allen. The Spurs are more motivated in my opinion to take this game because it really could be their last time around. I think they will fuel on being the first team in 35 years to win a game 7 on the road.

Spurs +6 4.4* NBA POD; Spurs +230 2* bonus; Spurs/Heat U189 2.2* bonus We got robbed in game 6 on the total with it going to OT as we covered the under in regulation. Tonight I expect the defenses to be even more intense in this game. The Spurs really have dominated this series at times or at least have been in control the entire way. I don't see a blow out here in Game 7 and the Spurs are a close team with a ton of veteran leadership that went 23-5 after a loss this season, 17-11 ATS. This series has been up and down and once again everyone is counting the Spurs out. The coaching advantage is still huge as Greg Popavich had his team rally together after the game instead of head to their rooms in disgust after blowing a 10 point 4th quarter lead. The fact of the matter is the Heat laid it all on the line and should have lost. They got so lucky with offensive rebounds in the closing minutes and clutch three pointer by Ray Allen. The Spurs are more motivated in my opinion to take this game because it really could be their last time around. I think they will fuel on being the first team in 35 years to win a game 7 on the road.

[b]Heat/Spurs U192 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I like the the under in this game after some high scoring affairs in San Antonio. Whenever the Heat have won they have won with their defense and I think that is where they buckle down in tonight's game as they force a game 7. I think you will see less of the Heat's small ball philosophy which has not worked which should slow down the game and get Tiago Splitter more playing time for the Spurs too. The total has gone under 16 of the Spurs last 21 road games where they just are not the same offensively. They scored 92 and 84 in Miami in games 1 and 2 and I expect a lower amount. Look for the Heat to keep them in the 70's or low 80's and San Antonio will do all they can to avoid a game 7. Both games in the series in Miami went under and I think this game will too.

[b]Spurs +1.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I like the Spurs in this game as everyone is over reacting once again to the previous game. We saw it after the Heat won in convincing fashion in game 3, then after game 4 with the Spurs blowing out the Heat, and again now everyone thinks the Heat will win the series because they looked so good in game 4. There was a lot of sloppy play by the Spurs in game 4 that should be cleaned up tonight in my opinion. 2 days off will leave the Spurs fresh for this game and once again the coaching edge and preparation on the Spurs side gives them a tremendous edge. The Spurs are also 22-5 on the season following a loss and 17-1 following a loss at home. That only loss at home after a loss came at the end of the season when the Spurs were resting up. This team has not lost more than 2 games in a row at home all season and even if the Heat are the best team I don't see Tim Duncan and his veteran led Spurs going down that easy. Spurs should take this game sending it back to Miami where they hope to get one win. The Heat are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win while the Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 on 2 days rest, and 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss of 10+ points

Heat +1 4.4* NBA POD Lets not over react here the Spurs hit an NBA Finals record 16 three pointers in game 3 in their blowout win. I expect the Heat to turn that around tonight and there is no way the Spurs can will shoot that way again tonight. Expect the Heat to come out and win with defense tonight by defending the perimeter. I also expect Lebron James to be more aggressive. The media is flipping out on this game and it appears like the Heat have no shot, but remember this team has won 11 in a row following a loss and have not lost 2 in a row since January. After game 2 we thought the Spurs were done, so it's hard to imagine that this game won't be much different. The Heat are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 revenging a loss to a team while the Spurs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points in their previous game. The Heat absolutely need this game and I don't see the best player in the game losing this game.

[b]Spurs -2 -107 4.5* NBA POD[/b]
The Spurs are 41-7 at home this season and are outscoring opponents by double digits. The Heat dominated game 2, but we have seen time and time again where opponents have made adjustments after getting beat big by the Heat. Once again Eric Spoelstra will be out coached and the Spurs will make the right adjustments to win at home. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. The Spurs are a determined bunch who still are the fresher team because they swept the Grizzlies and I think their defensive adjustments and the ability of Leonard to rebound will be the overall difference in this one. I don't expect the Heat to get any wide open three's like they did in game 2 that allowed them to pull away late in the game.

Heat -5.5 2.2* bonus, Heat/Spurs O187.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Heat have bounced back from losses better than anyone this year so I do think they will take this game, but it will be close in the first half. I think we are getting great value with the total as it was 190 in game 1 and it was looking like it was on pace to easily go over the way the game was going, but then both teams started missing shots in the 2nd half and the Spurs missed plenty of wide open threes. I don't expect that to happen here. Miami has been great offensively after losing their first game of a series scoring 115 and 114 in their last two series and the Spurs are good enough offensively that the Heat will let them do what they want this is a team that scored over 100 points on the road and have plenty of offensive options. I expect this to be very much like game 1's first half throughout as both teams play their best going up and down the court and the Heat can play some of their normal line ups that allow them to spread the court vs. the Spurs defense.

Heat -5.5 2.2* bonus, Heat/Spurs O187.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Heat have bounced back from losses better than anyone this year so I do think they will take this game, but it will be close in the first half. I think we are getting great value with the total as it was 190 in game 1 and it was looking like it was on pace to easily go over the way the game was going, but then both teams started missing shots in the 2nd half and the Spurs missed plenty of wide open threes. I don't expect that to happen here. Miami has been great offensively after losing their first game of a series scoring 115 and 114 in their last two series and the Spurs are good enough offensively that the Heat will let them do what they want this is a team that scored over 100 points on the road and have plenty of offensive options. I expect this to be very much like game 1's first half throughout as both teams play their best going up and down the court and the Heat can play some of their normal line ups that allow them to spread the court vs. the Spurs defense.

Spurs +5 4.4* NBA POD; U188.5
I really like the Spurs to win the series and if they are going to do so they must steal game 1. I really do not anticipate them to be too rusty, but I do anticipate the Heat to have a let down off a grueling 7 game series with the Pacers. The Spurs pose some of the same challenges the Pacers did in the conference finals only the Pacers are a bit stronger on the front line, but the Spurs still have Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter is 6'11 and 240 and should be a handful in this series. What the Spurs do have is better back court play and a true point guard in Tony Parker who can take over a game. We saw it all series against the Pacers that when the Pacers got output from their guards they won the game.

On the flip side the Spurs defensively match up wellas Kawhi Leonard is 6'7 and young and quick enough to at least tire Lebron James out and should offer a challenge much like the Pacers were able to do. Greg Popavich is a tremendous coach and he's got 9 days to prepare for this game. This is a veteran group and I don't see them coming out flat if anything I see the Heat who are not as hungry as the Spurs coming out in a let down spot. They have not played well in game 1's all post season and lost game 1 last year after beating the Celtics in a grueling 7 game series.

Pacers +7 5.5* NBA POD; Pacers +305 1*
I have watched all 6 games in this series and I have been right in 5 of the 6 games on POD's. It is obvious the Heat are not the same team right now because of a few reasons. #1 Wade is clearly not 100%, and #2 match up issues. I said from the beginning this would be a tough match up for the Heat because of the Heat's weakness inside and how Indiana has the strongest front line in the NBA and they have clearly showed that in this series. Their rebound advantage has been remarkable and they have been in all three of the games in Miami. The one game we had the Heat -7.5 was in game 5 and I will even admit we were extremely lucky when George Hill got into foul trouble because up until then the Pacers controlled that game as they did in game 1 and game 2.

Once again with everyone doubting the Pacers I will back them this is a team with a huge chip on their shoulder. If you disagree just youtube Roy Hibbert's response on defensive player of the year comment by the press. This entire team knows they are not getting respect and they would love nothing more than to beat Miami in their own house tonight. I was there for game 7 against the Celtics a year ago when the Heat should have ran away with the game, but the Celtics hung tough for all 4 quarters and I expect the Pacers to do so as well controlling the game like they have controlled this series.

Pacers +3 4.4* NBA POD
I love the Pacers in game 6 here this has been a resilient group all season long and they should be in this game. If it was not for Lebron completely taking over the third quarter they could easily be up in the series as they led at the half on the road again. The Heat can not win with Lebron being the only viable scorer and it is clear the Pacers defense has taken the other Heat shooters out of the series. The Heat are actually playing to what the Pacers do and have gone away from their regular rotation for the most part with guys like Allen and Battier getting less minutes. Now the Pacers don't have Birdman for game 6 which will hurt their rebounding even more. I expect Haslem to play a key role, but just like in game 4 the Pacers did not let Haslem hurt them after they killed them in game 3. The Pacers are also 27-12 after a loss and 18-2 at home. If the loss was between 10-19 points which it was they were 13-1 this year.

Heat -7.5 3.3* NBA POD/ Heat 1H -4 2.2* bonus
We saw how the Heat responded in game 3 after a loss and a chance at losing their grip on the series. Now back at home where they have not come close to playing their best game against the Pacers I expect them to come out with a lot of intensity and win and cover the spread. I really expect the Heat's defense to play extremely well while Lebron and his supporting cast should take the game over in the 4th to cover the spread and win by double digits sending it back to Indiana for Saturday.

Pacers +3.5 4.4* NBA POD Sportsinteraction
I am not backing off the Pacers now. The Heat made a clear strategy change in game 3 to get home court back. They put Lebron in the post and they ran the court every chance they got. Expect Indiana to have a response for this whether they double team Lebron in the post or come out in a zone they should be able to limit the Heat shooting over 60% again. After all this Pacers team was among the best in FG% defense. Expect this defense to rebound in a big way and for their offense to continue to produce as they did in game 3. This to me is just far too many points and I'll gladly take it. Remember the Pacers have a huge advantage on the boards and their front line is a match up advantage.

GRIZZLIES -143 5.5* NBA POD

Pacers +1.5 4.4* NBA POD I backed the Pacers in game 1 and 2 and will continue doing so in game 3. I think the Pacers have a real chance at upsetting the Heat as they seem to have the main ingredients to pull off the upset because their strengths are also the Heat's weaknesses. Now Paul George is continuing to solidify himself as a star in this league that even saw Lebron James take notice in game 2. The Pacers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs this year and they have are 2-0 against the Heat during the regular season here at home and I expect them to win yet again.

Grizzlies -5 3.3* NBA POD The big question is after 3 days off who has the advantage? Some will say the Spurs and others the Grizzlies who even though are the younger team came off a heart breaking loss in OT after they made a huge come back. Let's be honest the Spurs have dominated 7 Quarters in this series. What that means is the Grizzlies have a lot to look at and change and I believe they will have the advantage of the time off and extra preparation. Trends agree, going back to 1991 home teams in a game 3 after 3 days off are 40-23 SU and 36-27 ATS and if that team is down 2-0 they have gone 20-10 and 18-12 ATS. I really like how the Grizzlies played in the 2nd half and the refs seem to favor the home teams while the Grizzlies took care of business all year going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less. Tony Parker has a calf issue but will play, but there is no reason to really stretch him when they are up 2-0. Expect that once the Grizzlies have this game in hand in the 4th for the Spurs to really take the foot off the pedal and look toward game 3. I still think we have a great series ahead.

Pacers +7.5 -105 3.5* NBA POD
I think we still have value in Game 2 with the Pacers. As I mentioned in my analysis in game 1 the Pacers match up extremely well with the Heat. They have defenders in George and Stephenson who can match up pretty well with the Heat's top two scorers. Indiana's biggest strength is Miami's biggest weakness - rebounding, and front line play and when you have match up advantages like the Pacers do 7.5 points seems like an awful lot.

I also believe the Pacers will come out in this game with everything they got in order to get this series back to Indiana with the series tied. This has been a resilient group all year and could have easily won this game on Wednesday. The Pacers were never down by more than 5 throughout the entire game and they still did not play their best game defensively. I expect them to come back in game 2 with a better effort with another chance to come away with an outright win. The Pacers are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 following a loss and 18-7 ATS after a road loss. The Heat are 2-4 ATS in the playoffs at home this year.

Pacers +8 4.4* NBA POD; Pacers +4.5 1H 2.2* bonus The Heat have had an easy road playing the only team in this years playoffs with a losing record in the Bucks and then facing the banged up Chicago Bulls. In that same situation they had a long lay off and came out in Game 1 against the Bulls very rusty. I expect the same thing and the Pacers are very much under valued here. First of all they have all of the ingredients of a team that gives the Heat trouble. They have the biggest front line in the NBA in HIbbert, George and West and it's the reason they are #1 in rebound margin while the Heat are last. They also have very under rated defenders who can guard Lebron and Wade in Stephenson and George. I really like the value we are getting here with the Pacers and I think they could steal game 1 or game 2. The Heat have also been a 2nd half team in many games this year and I expect the Pacers to play well early. The 3 refs for tonight's game seem to also favor the road dogs as home favorites 5-9.5 points on the season are a combined 28-47 ATS. Pacers should be in this game because of their defense and their offense continues to improve as they are able to spread it out.

Knicks +5.5 4.4* NBA POD A lot has changed since game 5 in Indiana, but the spread has not. The Pacers are due to lose their first game at home and I think it happens tonight. The Knicks were in striking distance for much of the game in Indiana despite shooting 35% and getting out rebounded by 18. A lot of those rebounds were long rebounds that were just unlucky. As Reggie Miller said many times during the broadcast the offensive rebound is the Pacers best offense. The Knicks will have a game plan to avoid that situation and if they can do it they should win this game. What else is different? Well Pablo Prigioni and Chris Copeland saw significant more playing time. 25 minutes more than in game 4 combined. That's a different ball game for the Knicks as Copeland can stroke the 3 and Prigioni can distribute and make an occasional 3. JR Smiths hot the ball 10 less times and overall the Knicks played better defense without double teaming as much. I expect the same things here tonight and the Pacers are also likely without their PG George Hill (concussion) which is a huge loss. Stating all of that I don't see how the spread is the same as it was for Game 4 so I think we get value on the side of the Knicks.

Warriors +2 3.3* NBA POD
The Warriors had not lost 2 times in a row at home all season and it nearly happened in game 4, but they escaped in OT. That tells me how resilient this team is and they are 26-13 ATS on the season following a SU loss, 14-3 ATS in their last 17. I think there is value in this line considering the Warriors were 3 point favorites earlier in the series at home. Curry and Thompson had just 13 points combined and Andrew Bogut had series lows of just 2 poitns and 6 rebounds. Expect much better play while the Spurs have been wildly inconsistent shooting wise in this series, L4 they have shot 36%, 39% 51% and 52% I think the Warriors defense steps up tonight again. The Warriors have also dominated the boards in this series +9.4 margin despite losing the margin by 2 in their last game. Point being they couldn't play any worse in San Antonio.. Now they host the Spurs to force a game 7 in Oakland where the crowd will be wild. The Spurs also have not played well on 1 days rest all year and have gone 5-13 ATS in their last 18.

knicks +5.5 4.4* NBA POD

Bulls +8 3.3* NBA POD; Bulls +320 1* bonus I think the value is on the Bulls clearly they have been underestimated and if you had the Bulls in game 3 you know you were moosed when this was a 1 possession game for most of the 4th quarter. I expect the Bulls who are 8 point under dogs against to be in this game again throughout the 4th quarter. The Bulls who have been running with the short line up have 2 days rest now and have been at home meanwhile Miami has been on the road still. I have said all along Miami does not match up well against the Bulls because the Bulls have post players in Noah and Boozer who can dominate the boards and score. That's really where the Bulls strengths lie and now they continue to play physical. The Bulls have a lot of hungry leaders and I don't see them letting this game get out of hand. Nate Robinson has also been extremely impressive with his passing skills and timely shooting. Though he was just 1-7 from three in the last game I expect that to change enough to get the Bulls the win. Chicago is 13-4 ATS off a home loss this year and 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more games.

Warriors +2.5 4.4* NBA POD; Spurs/Warriors Over 197 2.2* bonus
I am going against the line movement today I think there has been significant line movement to find value in these lines right now. The total has been set 201-205 all series long and though I've played the under I have been nervous at times because both teams like to shoot early in the shot clock. Now that the total is at 197 and both teams are on shorter rest I think the defenses will suffer.

I like the Warriors because they hung in there last game despite the Spurs having there best shooting % game and the Warriors having their worst shooting % performance. At one point they were down 1 late in the 4th quarter and now I see nearly a 6 point swing in the spread because of 1 game? Steph Curry will play and will have the same type of impact so I'm not worried about that. The Warriors win with defense and they haven't lost 2 in a row at home all season long and I don't expect it to happen now. The Spurs will suffer form the energy they expended in the last game. They are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 on 1 days rest and just 2-8 ATS after scoring 100+ points in their last 10 while the Warriors are 13-3 ATS following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after their opponent scored 100+ in previous game. Take the Warriors and the over here today.

Warriors +2.5 4.4* NBA POD; Spurs/Warriors Over 197 2.2* bonus
I am going against the line movement today I think there has been significant line movement to find value in these lines right now. The total has been set 201-205 all series long and though I've played the under I have been nervous at times because both teams like to shoot early in the shot clock. Now that the total is at 197 and both teams are on shorter rest I think the defenses will suffer.

I like the Warriors because they hung in there last game despite the Spurs having there best shooting % game and the Warriors having their worst shooting % performance. At one point they were down 1 late in the 4th quarter and now I see nearly a 6 point swing in the spread because of 1 game? Steph Curry will play and will have the same type of impact so I'm not worried about that. The Warriors win with defense and they haven't lost 2 in a row at home all season long and I don't expect it to happen now. The Spurs will suffer form the energy they expended in the last game. They are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 on 1 days rest and just 2-8 ATS after scoring 100+ points in their last 10 while the Warriors are 13-3 ATS following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after their opponent scored 100+ in previous game. Take the Warriors and the over here today.

Grizzlies/Thunder U187.5 4.4* NBA POD
I really like the under and expect it to drop. A few books have it around 187.5 if you can grab it at 187 you are in great shape. I think we are getting good value with the under in this game today. The more these two play the more familiar they are and the more the defenses step up. Both teams know they need the defense to step up in order to win. The Thunder do not have as many scoring options since losing Westbrook, and the Grizzlies are a half court team and they should dictate the pace in this game. I do not see Michael Conley going off like he did in Game 2 and the Thunder have had 3 days to prepare a defensive scheme. The 3 days off also helps both teams really be ready for this game defensively where they know they have to win the game.

Both teams are ranked 2nd and 3rd in effecient FG% defense. When facing the other top 5 teams this season on the road the Thunder are under the total 5 out of the 6 games while the Grizzles are under the total 4 out of the 6 games at home. Making it a 9-3 under situation. 1 of the overs came in an OT game for the Grizzlies, and when these teams met in Memphis during the regular season the game went under the total despite going to an OT. The Thunder are under the total 12-4 this season when playing on revenge and they are also 9-4 on the under in their last 13 with 3 or more days of rest.

[b]Spurs +3 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
Everyone is jumping on the Warriors now, but I think the Spurs will use their veteran leadership to take back home court advantage on Friday night. Their defense has not lived up to expectations so far in this series and considering they are well rested playing just 3 games in the last 10 days I expect them to come with a full effort tonight. The Spurs also bounce back from losses pretty well including an 11-1 ATS record over the last 2 seasons after an upset loss as a home favorite. You also have to think the Warriors will be in a hang over spot here after winning in San Antonio for the first time in 30+ trips or since the Chris Mullin days which is pretty substantial. I don't expect Klay Thompson to shoot like he did in game 2 and the Spurs in back to back games have come out in the 2nd half with a defensive tenacity. Expect it to happen from the start. I would also like the under in this game, but the fact is both teams have decided to push the pace and take shots early in the shot clock.

Spurs/Warriors U205 5.5* NBA POD
Game 1 went into double OT and I think that has increased the total to 205 where it was 201 in game 1. 63% of the public actually still like the over yet you see the total dropping in some places. I think this is a great spot especially since the Spurs showed they can defend this team limiting them to 14 points in the 4th quarter. I think the Spurs will continue to want to turn this into a half court game and I don't see the Warriors shooting 51% again. I expect the Spurs to be up in the 2nd half and slow it down even more while playing excellent defense. The Spurs are 8-1 to the under in home games after scoring 110 points in their previous game. They are also 12-2 to the under at home when facing a team ranked in top 10 in efficient FG% defense and 205 is the highest total on the season in this situation which included two home games against the Warriors at home with both going under the total.

4* NBA POD Thunder -135
I think it will be hard for the Grizzlies to duplicate there performance from game #1. First of all the Thunder have found an answer for missing Russell Westbrook and that's Kevin Martin. People forget how good this team was on defense this year and it has held up since losing Westbrook. I definitely think the Thunder will win this game as the Grizzlies played there best game and still came up empty. Look for the Thunder to keep scoring and for the Grizzlies to struggle offensively here tonight.

Grizzlies +3 4.4* NBA POD The Grizzlies are red hot after winning 4 straight over the Clippers and now they go up against a Thunder team that barely got by the Rockets. The Thunder were able to get by the Rockets without Rusell Westbrook because the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Now that the Thunder have to play one of the best defenses we will really see what they are made of. The Grizzlies beat the Thunder twice int he regular season and they seem poised to make a run to the NBA Finals. Memphis is 26-17-1 ATS on the road this year and 31-16-2 ATS on 1 days rest. I expect Mike Conley to play a major impact in this series without Westbrook guarding him.

3.3* NBA POD

Knicks -130 5* NBA POD The Knicks are in serious trouble, but only 3 times this year did they lose 3 or more games in a row. And in the NBA Playoff history only 3 teams in 103 attempts have forced a game 7 after trailing 3-0. We have seen the Knicks come into Boston and win in dominating fashion in 2 of their last 3 trips. Their only loss was in game 4 which they lost in OT. Don't be surprised if the Celtics feed off the crowd and go up early in this game again, but the Knicks will have the youth and the legs in the end to pull off the victory. Celtics only went with 7 players in their last game as they logged some serious minutes. Rivers knows he can't do that again and if he does he'll be in serious trouble on Sunday. I don't think it will come to that as the Knicks will wrap it up tonight with Anthony having a huge game.

Pacers/Hawks U187.5 3.3* play
This is a critical game for the Hawks and I anticipate them to dictate the pace once again today and force this game under the total like they finally did in the last one. These are two top 10 defensive teams and the longer this series goes the more we see them take over.

4.4* NBA POD BUCKS +9

Under 4.4* play

[b]Nuggets -1 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I think the Nuggets won't play a third poor game in a row and the Warriors won't shoot 65% from the field again. The Warriors will finally feel their loss of David Lee tonight as Faried will play a more critical role for Denver as they will dominate the boards and steal home court advantage back. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS this season on revenge following a double digit loss and I think they also have the better coach who knows how to motivate his players and win a road playoff game.

Under 179 Clippers/Grizzlies 4.4* NBA POD
I see a ton of value here on this line despite it going over in the first two games. Not only is it due to go under, but the line has not changed and with the game being in Memphis that makes a huge difference as the Grizzlies should be able to dictate the pace of the game which they want to turn into a half court battle where they hold an advantage. The last 4 meetings here have gone under between the two and as a series goes on the defenses tend to take over as both realize what they need to do to stop the other. Memphis is also 9-2 on the under at home when playing a team ranked in the top 10 in 2 point defense.

Pacers/Hawks U187 3.3* NBA POD
We had the under in game 1 and I'm backing it up again like I should have done with the Bulls + the points. Pacers played fine defensively, but the Hawks need to wake up. This is a playoff game and they need to show that they are alive and I think they will show it tonight against the Pacers. These are two top 10 defensive teams with a pretty high total.

Celtics +7 (3.3* NBA POD)
Game 1 was played close the entire with the Knicks pulling the trigger late to win by 7. I see more of the same as the Celtics can easily win this game considering the Knicks are a 1 man shooting shop. Yes, JR Smith can catch fire, but generally not against the better defensive teams. The Knicks were extremely lucky that Carmello had some wide open three point shots he was able to step into. I don't anticipate that happening again with Doc as the coach. I also think the Celtics will use their bench more in this game which should lead to a more balanced game.

Bulls +4.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Bulls took 3 of the 4 match ups this year and are used to playing without Noah. This is a gritty tough team that has played all year with injuries and I expect them to take this game against the Nets. The Bulls win with defense and were ranked 5th in 2 point defense. The Nets were just 2-4 and 1-5 ATS at home this year vs. teams ranked in the top 5 in 2 point defense. The Bulls won on the road here without Noah this year and they lost the other one by just 4 points after leading by 4 entering the 4th quarter. I expect a game that comes down to the last minutes once again as the Bulls have kept Joe Johnson in check as he averages just 13ppg vs. the Bulls this year. The Bulls also were 12-4 SU and ATS vs. teams ranked in the bottom 10 in 2 point defense as the Nets are.

Warriors +8 2.2* play
I think the Warriors will give the Nuggets a huge test in the first round. The Nuggets lost their top scorer and if Faried is not 100% they will have issues down low with David Lee and Andrew Bogut. I question the Nuggets depth which could create issues with the style of play that they compete with which is up and down the court. The Warriors clearly can match them in pace and should stay in this game.

Bulls -8.5 3.3* NBA POD
The Bulls seem to have the most motivation and are playing the worst team today. The Wizards whose defense was their strength all season has faded as they have allowed 100+ poitns in 4 of their last 5 games. I expect them to give that up here again today to the Bulls who looked really healthy the other night. The Bulls defense will also strangle the Wizards who have no motivation to be in Chicago. The Bulls on the other hand win and they get the 5 seed, lose and a Hawks win they get the 6th seed. The difference will be playing the Pacers who they have lost 3 of 4 or playing the Nets who they have won 3 of 4. I think they match up much better against the Nets and would prefer playing them.

Nets/Pacers U187 4.4* NBA POD
I think there is a ton of value considering the total has gone under this number in the last 4 meetings between these two. This will also be a playoff type atmospher as the Pacers who are known for their defense any way are just two games behind the Knicks for the #2 seed while the Nets are trying to also stay in the #4 spot to keep home court advantage. The Nets on the road playing a good team has usually resulted in the game going under the total in fact 20 times in the last 28 meetings vs. teams with a home record of .600 or better.

Wizards +9 3.3* NBA POD
I like the Wizards in this spot today they are among the few that can run with the Knicks right now. They have a great defense and I expect the Knicks to be a bit hung over after going on the road and beating the Thunder. They also have a revenge game coming up against the Bulls and are very easily going to be the 2nd seed in the NBA Playoffs. The Knicks struggle against teams that play 2point defense and can play the perimeter and that's what the Wizards have. With the Bulls up next for the Knicks and after winning against the Thunder this team is playing with a lot of confidence and might cruise the rest of the season and we can take advantage.

Twolves +3.5 3.3* NBA POD
Memphis defense has really struggled of late and they come into this game on 0 days rest and are letting Marc Gasol play with his rib injury. I don't think it's the greatest idea and this team will likely be a bit hung over after beating Houston in a big game last night and with their next game being against the Spurs on Monday night they will surely be looking ahead to a potential playoff match up. Meanwhile Minnesota just keeps playing well they come into this game also on 0 days rest and that is where they seem to get in a groove shooting as they score their most points. Coming off a 100 point effort against the leagues 2nd best defense was impressive and I think it carries over to tonight as they improve on their 7-4 ATS record at home vs. teams in the top 10 in 2 point defense %. Minnesota has gotten some big wins at home recently and on the season vs. this type of team including beating Indiana and Oklahoma City twice, and the Spurs.

Hornets +6 3.3* NBA POD
Miami's long win streak finally came to an end and now they get a mental break as they go to play the Hornets, a game that means literally nothing. The Heat have wrapped up the 1st seed and home court throughout so this game literally means nothing to them. I expect them to have a major hang over after playing a very physical game against the Bulls. Don't be surprised if the Hornets win this game outright. Anthony Davis and Eric Gordan did not play in the first match up in Miami and they have been playing great at home of late beating Denver to end their long win streak then beating Memphis and 1 day ago they were in a battle with the Clippers before LA ran away with the game. The Heat have the Spurs and Knicks coming up and I'm sure they'd like to concentrate their efforts on those games rather than this one. The Hornets are also 22-5 ATS in their last 27 following a SU loss of 10+. They have the advantage down low as they are 11th in rebounds +8.4/game over their last 5 where Miami is 24th and -6/game over their last 5.

Grizzlies +1 4.4* NBA POD
I think this is a good spot for the Grizzlies after losing to defensive minded Wizards on the road. Now they go and play a bottom tier defense in the Knicks who rank 23rd in 2 point defense where the Grizzlies will take 84% of their shots. Both big mans are out in this game in Tyson Chandler and Marc Gasol for me that's a wash. Not only are the Grizzlies 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS on the road facing a team ranked 20-30th in the league in 2 point defense, but they play the Knicks who are on 0 days rest after coming off a huge win vs. the Celtics.

The Knicks should be a bit hung over in this game as the Grizzlies try to rebound from a disappointing loss against the lowly Wizards. Memphis is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss and going back further are 51-25-3 ATS in their last 79 vs. teams with a win% over .600.

Wizards +4 4.4* (NBA POD)
Ton of value here in this line. Memphis is going to be playing without Marc Gasol which is a huge key for them since they take roughly 85% of their shots from 2 point range and they'll be going against one of the better 2 point defensive teams in the Wizards who rank 7th.

Memphis also just beat Boston and has the Knicks and Rockets up next so they'll likely also be looking ahead to those games. The Wizards are a solid home team and I think they will win outright tonight as they have the ingredients to pull off the upset. They have the 2 point defense and the ability to hit 3's which is where Memphis is vulnerable allowing 37% from there on the road which is good for 16th.

However, without Gasol in the lineup I think the Wizards can shoot a bit better in the paint as well. Washington is 39.1% from three at home which is good for 4th in the NBA. The Wizards also score their most points on 1 days rest while the Grizzlies score their least. Wizards are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 after allowing 100+ points, 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games and 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. the West.

Pistons +16 3.3* NBA POD
Call me crazy but I see a ton of value on the Pistons here as the heat come off an exhausting 4 game road trip. They are 0-5 ATS off 4game or more road trips this season and three of those games went to OT and the opponents are not very impressive with Charlotte, Cleveland, Toronto, Dallas, and Milwaukee. Detroit also just lost to Brooklyn at home in a blow out so the line is a bit inflated for obvious reasons. The Heat had to try really hard to win their last 2 games and they'll want to enjoy a couple of easy victories. Meanwhile the Pistons did beat this team at home earlier in the year and are on 3 days rest. I'm sure they were scheming in those 3 days just how they could beat the Heat. I don't think it will happen, but who thought the Cavs would be up 27 poitns on the Heat on Wednesday. The Heat have struggled of late blowing teams out like this as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams with a win % less than .400

Portland +6 3.3* NBA POD I see a lot of value here for the Blazers as they have been competitive on the road over their last 5. They lost by 7, 1, 2, and 6 to Memphis and beat the Spurs by 30. Portland is also 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning SU record while the Bulls are 10-23 in their last 33 home games. I also think the Bulls who have had 2 days off are going to struggle a bit after their tough loss to Denver in OT. They also have Indiana up next which is more of an important game at this point in the season. Chicago is 4-12 ATS this season on 2 days rest for whatever reason and allows a significantly more amount of points 100.4. That's bad news against Portland and Chicago has been struggling lately any how allowing 52.5% from 2 point range over their last 3 games. Portland can also knock down the three so they'll have more than one way to score in this game.

Celtics +5.5 5.5* NBA POD
I fully expect Garnett to dress for this game and I think the Celtics match up quite well with the Heat in terms of what the Heat's biggest weakness is which is scoring and keeping opponents from scoring in the paint. The Celtics would just love to end this run and they come into this game on some decent rest while the Heat are coming in on 0 days rest flying in from Toronto. That's a huge deal for a team that relies on their starting 5 to score 75% of their points. The Heat are actually just 5-6 ATS on 0 days rest and score their least amount of points which falls into the hands of the Celtics defense which is ranked 4th in 2 point % defense and is even better at home. That could be a major issue and it's no coincidence that the Heat are just 3-6 overall in road games against teams ranked in the top 10 currently in 2 point % defense. The Heat are also 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at Boston and this line is inflated quite a bit because the books are tired of losing $ to Heat backer.s I love the Celtics to play this game like a playoff game tonight.

Raptors +8 NBA POD

Cleveland +7.5 2.2* Bonus (1-5 SCALE)
Dallas has been playing extremely well, but this is going to be ahrd game for them on 0 days rest after losing a tough game with the Spurs. The Mavericks are trying to still make a run at the playoffs and are playing extremely well, but it's hard to see them not resting up a bit and crusiing in this one when they have the Thunder up next.

Cleveland meanwhile has been playing good enough of late and is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 while also going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Dallas. Dallas is on a rare hang over with a lookahead up next. I expect Dallas to win a close one as theya re -5.2 ppg on 0 days rest this season.

Twolves +14 +100 4* NBA POD (1-5 SCALE)
This is an interesting game because Minnesota is off a 16 point loss and Houston is off a 30 point win thus this line is a bit inflated in my opinion. Houston is 4-12 ATS in theri last 16 vs a team with a losing SU record. Reason? I think they tend to rest some of their stars more since 80% of their points come from their starting 5. Given that they have a huge game up next with the Warriors on Sunday they should be heavily motivated to do the same thing.

Meanwhile Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss of 10+ points. Despite their 16 point loss they actually scored 91 points vs. the best defense in the league. A game before they beat the Spurs who are another top defense and if you recall they were in a battle with Miami in the 4th quarter before Miami turned it on late to win comfortably. Minnesota will have an opportunity to stick around in this game because Houston's 2 point defense is suspect and that's where Minnesota will take a huge percentage of their shots 78% of them. Minnesota has lost just 1 game by more than 14 on the road vs. a team ranked in the bottom 10 in 2 point defense and is 6-4 ATS. Houston ranks 22nd and add in that Houston takes too many 3 pointers they could easily struggle in a game. I look for the Twolves to stick around and continue to play spoiler.

Wizards ML -110 4.4* NBA POD
This is an interesting match up of two polar opposite teams. The Wizards win with defense specifically from 2 point range where they are ranked 3rd in the league on the road and 6th overall, meaning they play better defense on the road and they are playing even better in their last 3 games. Meanwhile the Cavs are last in the league in 2 point defense. That's important because both teams shoot a bevy of 2 pointers per game at over 75% of their shots. Cleveland does not have their best perimeter shooter that led them to two victories over the Wizards this year to help them spread the court so I think the Wizards will finally get their revenge.

Cleveland at home vs. top 10 2 point defenses has not been pretty as they have gone 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS. The Wizards on the road vs. teams ranked in the bottom 10 in 2 point defense are 6-3 ATS winning many times SU as a dog.

Warriors -1.5 5.5* NBA POD (1-5* SCALE)
The Rockets may be #1 in points per game but they'll have their hands full Friday night in an important game against the Warriors who would liket o hold their spot in the playoffs as they are a game up on the Rockets. The Warriors can score themselves so I see a lot of value in the -1.5 spread.

Houston just relies too much on the three point basket shooting it 35.2% of the time and they'll go up against the Warriors who defend better than many think. Golden State is 14th vs. the 2 point basket, but more importantly are ranked 7th against the 3 and ranked 4th at home allowing under 32% from 3. On the flip side the Warriors will shoot mostly two pointers 76% of the time in fact and the Rockets are suspect especially on the road.

The Rockets rank 22nd in 2 point defense and allow 50.3% on the road and are allowing 57.2% in their last three. The Warriors meanwhile have played 11 games against the bottom 12 teams in the leage in 2 point defense. In those games they have gone 9-2 and their victories have come by an average of 8.7 points. Warriors also have revenge in this game after losing at home to the Rockets earlier in the season.

Mavericks -1.5 3.3* NBA POD
Houston just beat Dallas by 33 points so they are not likely to take them seriously after out playing them and shooting 57.5% from the field going 41.2% from three, out rebounding by 13 and getting to the FT line +16 times. However, Dallas is not about to rollover as they are 5.5 games out of the playoffs. Meanwhile Houston has the Warriors up next and could be looking ahead considering the Warriors are 1 game up on them.

The thing I like in this game is Dallas relies much more on the 2 point game shooting 76% of their shots from there while Houston shoots 35% of their shots from three which normally does not transition well on the road. Houston actually struggles big time in defending the paint rankings 22nd ont he year. It just so happens the Mavericks are 10-2 SU and ATS at home against teams ranked 20th or worse in 2 point % defense.

Hawks +5.5 -105 4* NBA POD
I like the Hawks in this game here. Not only do the Lakers have the Thunder up next in what should be a potential let down spot or look ahead, but they are 1-12 on the season vs. teams ranked in the top 7 in two point % defense. The Hawks are ranked 6th in two point % defense and play better two point defense on the road. Considering over 70% of the shots taken by both these teams will be from two point land this is an important statistic. The Hawks also have a better perimeter offense statistically overall and on the road vs. what the Lakers do at home. I think the Lakers should win the game, but 5.5 points is a lot of points and I think we are getting it because they just came off a big win vs. the Twolves while the Hawks just lost on the road to Phoenix as a 4 point favorite. This is a favorable spot with a lot of value.

Celtics -4 -105 4* NBA POD (based on 1-5* rating)
I like the Celtics in this match up as this is the Warriors 3rd game in 4 nights after Curry played all 48 minutes vs. the Knicks. The Warriors also have to play again tomorrow making it 4 games in 5 nights meanwhile the Celtics are well rested.

Boston is on 3+ days rest where their offense has flourished this year. They need wins right now to climb the playoff ranking ladder or to get in so you know they are going to come with their best defensive effort. Meanwhile they don't play for another couple days. Speaking of defense the Celtics are ranked 9th in shooting defense. The Warriors are just 3-8 on the road this year vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in shooting defense. Those 3 wins came really early in the season 2 in November and 1 on December 8th vs. the Wizards.

All 8 losses have been by more than 4. 11, 25, 6, 21, 7, 16, 26 and 9 points. I expect the Celtics to come out and dominate here tonight. They are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors defense continues to slip especially on the road and especially in the paint where they have allowed over 50.5% over their last 3 games. The Celtics take nearly 80% of their shots inside the arch and should dominate here tonight.

Pacers -1.5 2.2* bonus play (based on a 1-5* rating)
I don't view this game as a hang over for the Pacers. I thought they hung with the Clippers for most of the night last night which was suprrising without Roy Hibbert who anchors that elite defense. Actually the Pacers are #1 in shooting defense in the league and that will be a major issue for the Raptors. Though the Raptors have improved and are in the playoff hunt they won't win this game in my opinion.

The Raptors vs. teams ranked in the top 12 in shooting defense are 2-9 at home. Pacers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on 0 days rest. This would have been a premium play if the Pacers did not have the Bulls and Celtics next, but I still think it's a strong play for them to rebound off a tough loss without one of their better players last night.

[b]Kings +15.5 4.4* NBA POD[/b]
I don't recommend watching this game as I'm sure the Heat will control the entire game, but lets be honest the Oddsmakers are about 2 points off here and they should inflate the number as the Kings are 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games vs. the Heat 1-10 ATS in Miami. However, the Kings have turned it up a little against tough competition going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a winning team. More than anything this game should get the most out of Demarco Cousins who will have the advantage in the Heat. The Heat also lack a guy that can guard Isiah Thomas as he showed in the first match up where the Kings lost by 29 points. The Kings will want to play for a little respect right here.

On the other hand the Heat have been looking ahead to the Grizzlies who they lost by 20 to in November and have a game with the Knicks following that. This team is not mentally checked in for this game. There is no way they can be against a team they beat on the road (in recent memory) by 29 points. Players are most likely planning their next two days off and looking ahead to the two playoff teams they have on schedule. I like this play a lot and I think we are getting a ton of value. I mean if the Heat cover this what is next? 20 point favorites for games?

Twolves +2.5 3.3* NBA POD
Many may see this line and jump all over the Warriors. In fact 70% of the public are thinking just that, but I can possibly back the Warriors on the road as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 and I already mentioned in my article on the 2nd half that Warriors would come down. I had the Warriors +4 on Friday as our NBA POD and won. Now I'm fading the Warriors after they just upset the Spurs. This is a major hang over game for them and with upcoming games against the Knicks and the Pacers I see them peaking ahead and not taking the Timberwolves seriously. Meanwhile Minnesota just came off a double digit loss to the Thunder and are 19-7 ATS following a SU loss of 10+ points.

Warriors +4 3.3* NBA POD
You'll find this line up to 4 in some places and I grabbed it. The Spurs coming off a huge victory in dominating fashion vs. the Clippers last night now they go on the road again as they continue this ridiculous road trip to face the Warriors. The Warriors ended the All Star break playing terrible defense, but they are still ranked 9th in the league in shooting % defense and I think that will give the Spurs trouble coming off a game where they had the adrenaline flowing.

The Warriors will have revenge from their 7 point loss in San Antonio. The Warriors have been a tough opponent at home and have beaten many of the top playoff teams. The Clippers twice, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers, Nuggets, Nets and Hawks to name a few. The Spurs play their 2nd worst defense on 0 days rest which could be an issue against the Warriors who can light up the scoreboard at home. I expect this to be one of those games the Spurs realize they don't absolutely need after getting up for their game last night. Most of the players already making plans to go back home Sunday night after they play the Suns.

[b]Rockets +10.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
Rockets are a pretty decent team and the Clippers just played awesome back to back games on the road to beat the slicers and Knicks but come home after the long road trip and have a game tomorrow night against their rival Lakers. This is an interesting sandwich game and I could see the Clippers slipping up or slacking off in the fourth while theRockets will cover.

[b]Bobcats +4 3.3* NBA pod[/b]
I think there is value here with the bobcats facing an older Boston team here tonight on 0days rest and after playing in 3 ots last night. They also are still playing without Rondo and they have the bulls up next.

Celtics -2 5.5* NBA POD

2.2* BONUS ON CLIPPERS +3.5

3.3* pod

Wizards -1.5 3.3* NBA POD

Pistons -1.5 3.3* NBA POD
I like the Pistons in this spot, the Brooklyn Nets are not playing good basketball and they will likely be a little hung over from their effort against the Lakers where they came up short just last night. They are clearly disappointed in that game and the Pistons are the type of team that gives them issues. The Pistons are among the best in defense ranked 10th in opponent shooting %. The Nets are just 2-7 vs. teams ranked in the top 11 and beat Detroit by only 2 in OT at home. I think the Pistons will have some revenge on their mind and they are clearly playing better ball right now. The Nets have eclipsed 100 points only 1 time in their last 10 games and on 0 days rest they allow their most points. Pistons have averaged 102.4 points in their last 5 home games. Detroit is also 8th in total rebound % and has won 42 of 47 at home against the Nets who clearly do not like paying here.

Cavs +1.5 5.5* NBA POD Kylie Irving has the Cavs playing some good basketball and the Warriors are playing their 4th game in just 5 days and they are short handed again. Curry and Bogut I believe will likely be out of this game but if they start I still feel comfortable with the Cavs covering and winning this game. Cavs have won 4 of their last 5 games including their last three straight up as under dogs.

Magic +9.5 3.3* NBA POD I think we are getting tons of value here with the Magic since the Nets are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and are looking ahead to their showdown at home against the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Orlando meanwhile has been having their own problems losing 5 straight up and ATS and now we catch some major value. The Nets don't deserve to be laying 9.5 points the way they've been playing. For one they have been dominated in the paint and they could have issues again tonight as the Magic are 10th in 2 point offense % wise. Brooklyn has already beaten the Magic 3 times so I doubt they'll take them too seriously in this one. Expect the Nets to be a little laid back int his one just coming off a 4 game road trip their longest of the season. The Nets are 6-15-2 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100+ points in previous game.

Wizards +2 3.3* POD

2* play Jazz +185

Mavericks +1 (4.4* NBA POD)
The Mavericks won

Clippers +1.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Clippers were clearly looking ahead to this game after losing last night in Golden State while the Thunder have played in back to back OT games on the road. The Clippers are 19-4 at home and all 4 of their losses are against subpar teams. This team always seems to muscle up for the big opponents beating the Grizzlies, Spurs, Heat, Bulls, Nuggets, Celtics, and Jazz at home. The dog is 10-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Thunder are 2-5 ats in the last 7 meetings. I think we get some value here because of the Clippers are on 0 days rest, but I think they have a significant advantage with this game being at home at 10:30pm when the Thunder are not used to playing. Right now these are the two favorite for the conference finals and the Clippers would like to make a statement.

Bulls -1 3.3* NBA POD
With or without Luol Deng I think the Bulls should win this game the way the Lakers are playing right now. The team

Nuggets +1.5 4.4* NBA POD
Denver definitely looking ahead to this game after losing Friday night at home to the Wizards as a 10.5 point favorite. Now the public is backing the Thunder to the tune of 70% and the line is not moving much. Denver plays up to the competition at home already beating the Clippers, Grizzlies, Spurs and Lakers. The Thunder will have a tough time after allowing over 100 points in their game on Friday night. Denver is 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in previous game. The Thunder were lucky to get by the Mavericks and now Russell Westbrook will face a team that's better on defense than the Mavericks.

Grizzlies -125 5.5* NBA POD
Got to love the Grizzlies tonight. Both teams are on 0 days rest and without arguably their best players in Luol Deng and Zach Randolph. Grizzlies seem to have the better defensive team despite both being in the top 10 in defense efficiency. I like the Grizzlies ability to play on short rest and the Bulls just came off an emotional victory in Boston last night that took OT to get there. Memphis is actually 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games on 0 days rest and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes so they are used to playing well in these type of situations.

The Bulls also have the Lakers up next and played Boozer and Noah over 40 minutes last night. Those two guys are the key to their defensive intensity and I think they'll struggle with the athletic Grizzlies tonight who are ranked 2nd in defense efficiency. The Bulls have not fared well against good defense teams going just 1-8 straight up against teams ranked in the top 7 in defense efficiency. They already lost and were held to a season low 71 points in a loss to Memphis.

Mavericks +6 4.4* NBA POD; Mavericks +200 .5* play I think there is just too much value here to not play this game especially the way the Mavericks have been playing winning their last 3 at home and holding opponents to 39% from the field. Dallas have given Russell Westbrook fits in Dallas as he only averaged 16 points in two games here last year and 35.5% shooting. I think this Mavericks team is rounding into form with a healthy Dirk Nowitzki and I think they will look to make a statement here tonight after losing in OT in December on the road to the Thunder with Dirk coming off the bench in just his second game. The dog is 21-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Warriors +2.5 3.3* POD

Rockets -145 4* NBA POD
Clippers just played last night and got a much needed win and now they'll play the Rockets who have had a couple of days off which is huge for a team that relies on their starting 5 score more than 75% of their points. The Clippers have played their worst defense by far on 0 days rest allowing 100.4 points per game. Their next worst defense is on 3+ days rest allowing 92.5 so it is obvious this team has trouble playing on back to back nights in my opinion where they are 3-5 ATS. I see the Rockets who have played well at home getting a big time win.

3.3* NBA POD

4.4* NBA POD

2.2* bonus

4.5* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY

3.3* PLAY

Jazz +9 3.3* NBA POD
I think we are getting tremendous value on the Jazz in this spot and I feel they match up well against the red hot Heat. However, the Heat are in a tough spot in their own as they look ahead to Christmas when they play the Thunder. I don't think the Heat believe it takes their full attention to dismiss the Jazz, but they will get the Jazz best. Jazz also have a couple extra days rest compared to the Heat and the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record so most of their ATS dominance has come against weak opponents.

Twolves +4 -115 4.6* NBA POD
This is a huge game for Minnesota and for the Thunder this is just another game. I actually think the Twolves match up extremely well vs. the Thunder despite going 0-4 last year both of their home games were decided by 1 and 4 points and one went to OT. On the road they lost by 8, and 9 (which was in OT). The Thunder are in an interesting spot here playing on 0 days rest and their starters combined for 160+ minutes last night and they'll face the Heat on Christmas next which is drawing tons of hype. Minnesota just got their buts whooped by the Heat but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss by 10+. Look for Minnesota to come away with a win here.

3.3* NBA POD