Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day

4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints. 

Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season. 

Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
8:15 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points.

I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points.

Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990.

Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season.

Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite.

Arizona vs Philadelphia

4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points. 

From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. 

The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons. 

Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf. 

LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
4% Best Bet on the Chargers +3 points.

Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games.

Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game.

Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points

The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles.

Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes.

Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes.

This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored.

Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG.

New England vs LA Rams
8:15 PM EST, December 10, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line.

Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond.

This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG.

The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick.

The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too.

Denver vs Kansas City
4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos +13.5 points and sprinkle a small amount on the monmey line.

There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs.

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points.

Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons.

Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know.

Cleveland  Browns vs Tennessee Titans

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points.

The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes.

The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG.

This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season.

The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020

5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.

My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.

The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.

Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.

Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan

J

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
12:00 PM EST, November 26, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points.

Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets.

Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points.

Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points.

NFL Week 11
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts
4% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts

I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010.

The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game.

Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line.

NFL Week 11

4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career.

     Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance.  Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being  hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome.

     Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season.

    
My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models predict that Denver will average more yards-per-play than the Dolphins and score at least 20 points. In past home games in which the Broncos met or exceeded these measures has led to a 25-11 SU record for 69% wins and 27-7-2 ATS for 79% winning bets that have covered by an  average of 9 points in games played since 2010.

Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens

The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000.

NFL Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs
8:20 ET, November 8, 2020

5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor. 

 This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations.

The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes.

Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career.

 The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020

4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet.

The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season.

The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack.

RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average.

My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005.

Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight.

(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo
1:00 ET, November 1, 2020

4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots

I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements.

1.       Bet on any team regardless of the betting line.

2.       Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL).

3.       Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL.

4.       Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards.

Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career.

Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points.

(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers
8:20 PM EST, October 29, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Falcons +2 1/2 and is valid bet down to and including pick-em

Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers.

The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes.

My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures.

Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, October 26, 2020

10-Star NFL Game of the Month

The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.

My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.

The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.

The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.

The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.

The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.

Nick Foles has not set the world on fire since taking over the starting QB position from the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. His QBR is lower than Trubisky, but Foles wins. Just as he did in the 2016 regular season and culminating in the Super Bowl Championship and an MVP award for the Philadelphia Eagles. I am not suggesting a futures bet just yet on the Bears, but they are a united offensive unit when he is on the field, and Foles somehow makes the entire team better.

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.

From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.

Take the Bears and the points.

Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders
4:05 PM EST

4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders

Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE.

The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points.

 Green Bay vs Houston
1:00 PM EST, October 25, 2020

4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans

A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades.

When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2.

Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points.

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST, October, 25, 2020

4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season.

The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio

In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover.

The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns.

There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons.

Bet on any team on the money line when:

1.       The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush.

2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards.

From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 22, 2020
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.

The NFC East Division is a horror show with the Dallas Cowboys getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and remain in first place with an embarrassing 2-4 straight-up (SU) record. The Philadelphia Eagles have won once while losing four games, including a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles trail the Cowboys by a ½ game in the standings during the Washington Football Team, and New York Giants sport 1-5 SU records and trail by one game. So, a win by any of these inept teams would vault them into a tie for first place.

In light of how badly the Cowboys played in a 38-10 SU loss to the Arizona Cardinals, any of the four teams can win the NFC East with a losing record. The Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 when head coach Doug Pederson opted to play for the tie and not the win. However, that decision to avoid a loss at all costs looks to be prophetic now.

The Eagles are a terrible team, and any win is significantly magnified in the NFC East standings. None of these teams are poised to rip off three or more consecutive wins and when they meet against a divisional foe earning a win is akin to winning 1.5 victories. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-0 SU and against-the-spread (ATS) in Thursday Night games under Pederson. Two of the five wins have been against the Giants, who are the opponent this Thursday.

The Eagles have endured so many injuries that they fail to stack up against any opponent right now. Running back Miles Sanders, tight end Zack Ertz, offensive guard/tackle Lane Johnson, and offensive tackle Jack Driscoll are unlikely to play in this game. Ertz is listed as 'OUT' as of Tuesday morning due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the Ravens that will require at least four weeks to heal.

The Eagles starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery remain listed as questionable, and even if they do play, their overall effectiveness is unknown. The most massive personnel problem is having seven offensive linemen on the injury list or injured reserve and how best to plug new linemen into the lineup.

A scheduled game on Thursday Night forces NFL teams to execute more straightforward game plans. For the Eagles, this is a blessing given all the inexperienced backup players now put into starting roles. A simplistic game plan is what the Eagles need immediately to stop making many mental mistakes contributing to their losing ways. After this game, the Eagles have the Cowboys coming to town and then will play these Giants again in the Meadowlands. The Eagles must win all three games because the schedule gets rough, facing five consecutive teams with winning records. The Eagles' current form would not win any of those five games, but a 6-10 record might win the division crown if they hold the bulk of the tie-breakers.

This betting system underscores the importance of turnovers that determine the outcome of a football game. The betting system has earned a solid 56-45 SU record and 62-33-6 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are three simple requirements for this system.

1.       Bet on road teams.

2.       The road team is coming off two straight games, committing no more than one turnover in each.

3.       The host is coming off a game, having forced zero turnovers.

When the road team has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the record improves to 15-14 SU and 23-5-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Giants will gain a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play (YPPL) and gain more YPPL than the Eagles while scoring at least 20 points. In past games in which the Giants met or exceeded these measures have earned a 66-22 SU record and 68-20 ATS record, good for 77% winning bets over the last ten seasons. When these measures combine with the Giants installed as a road dog, the record improves to 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points.

Take the NY Giants plus the points as a Best Bet.

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
1:00 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

This line was as high as 10-points and has been steadily moving lower despite the majority of tickets still jumping on the home favorite Patriots.

This NFL betting system supports the Broncos and has earned an outstanding 70% ATS on a 44-19-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. Play on underdogs facing an opponent that is coming off a game with a -3 or worse turnover margin.

The Broncos have the best run defense in the NFL and are only second to the Bucs in total defense.  Stopping the run, is key to defeating the Patriots given that they rank 21st in the NFL in overall passing.

The machine learning projections call for the Patriots to not have more than 230 passing yards and that the Broncos will have fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Broncos met or exceeded thes measures as a road dog has seen them earn a solid 14-10 SU record for 58% wins and 18-5-1 ATS for 78% winning bets that covered by an average of 7.7 points.

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Chicago Bears

The Panthers defense has been awful this season ranking 27th overall in the NFL based on my numbers. The flash numbers may indicate a different picture but that one is a smoke and mirrors type. The Bears have been far better than them on defense ranking 6th-best overall and have shown excellent tackling of players in space too. I also have them ranked with the 4th-best pass rush in the NFL as well. They rank 15th with 11 sacks, but they have not been forced to use the blitz to generate pressure on the QB or to get penetration up field. Their defenswive line has been playing quite well and wht the unit ranks fifth in the NFL allowing 465 yards-after-the-catch.

DL Brent Urban, drafted in 2014, is having his best season and combined with Kamil Mack have been great run stoppers. Urbamn is listed as questionable for this game, but is expectd to play. Bilal Nichols has played on 187 snaps and can run a 4.9 Forty and has been getting better each week.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Bears in road games  are 32-11 SU for 74% wins and 35-6-2 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points when they held an opponent to fewer than 230 passig yards and had fewer turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

Bet on Bad NFL Road Teams

There are two betting systems that support the winless Falcons in this road game against the Vikings. The first one has earned a solid 113-69-2 against-the-spread for 62% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements focus on offensive and defensive scoring.

1.         Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

2.         Their opponents have outscored them by seven or more points-per-game.

3.         The dog is coming off back-to-back games, scoring seven or fewer points in the first half in each game.

The second NFL betting focuses on turnovers, which have a huge correlation to wins and losses for any football team. The system has earned a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets spanning the last five seasons and has four requirements.

1.         Bet on underdogs, including pick-em.

2.         The team is mistake-free, averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

3.         The opponent has a defense that forces an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers.

4.         The opponent is coming off two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover.

The Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick:

The Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been declared ‘OUT’ for this game, suffering from a groin injury. He is a massive part of the Vikings offense and will give the Falcons an even greater chance of winning this game.

The machine learning models project that the Falcons will out gain the Vikings by at least 100 total yards and will score at least 24 points. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 52-5 straight-up (SU) record good for 91% wins and a 49-8 ATS record good for 86% winning bets covered the number an average of 14 points. The Falcons finally hold on to a lead and win the game.