Red Sox vs Twins
2 :10 ET |
8-Unit Best Bet on the red Sox using the money line and priced as 145 underdogs

The Twins were once six games Under 0.500 and now find themselves six games Over 0.500 after putting together an amazing 12-game win streak. The market has now over valued the Twins given the surge in betting passion by the public to back the win streak in irrational exuberance much like at the Roulette table where perhaps Red has come up 12 straight times.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 30-23 good for 57% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are:

·      Bet on any team where they and the host have winning records.

·      The host has won the last three matchups against our team.

·      The host has held our team to three or fewer runs in each of the last three games against the host.

If the game is a matchup of AL teams, our road team has done extremely well [posting a 14-10 record averaging a 140 bet resulting in a 37% Roi and the Dime Bettor making $11,830 in profits.

Mariners vs Astros

2:10 ET

8-Unit Bet on the Astros priced as -135 favorites using the money line.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 56-23 record for 71% winning bets that have averaged a -108-wager earning a 35% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $37,910 profit since 2004. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home teams coming off a home loss to a divisional foe.

·      That home team has won less than 38% of their games in the current season.

·      The road team has a winning record in the current season.

If the game is the last game of the series these hosts have produced a highly profitable 16-5 record averaging a -113-wager earning a 47% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $12,260 profit.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

Rangers vs Royals
7 :10 ET |
8-Unit Best Bet on the Royals using the money line and priced not greater than a -110 favorite.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 28-6 good for 82% winning bets since 20190. The requirements are:

·      Bet on any team that is outscoring their opponents by 1 or more RPG.

·      That team has allowed no more than one run in each of their previous three games.

The Royals are on a three-game win streak and defeated the Blue Jays 4-1 and then again 6-1 in the last game of that series and then defeated the Rangers in the first game of this three game set 7-1 Friday.

Angels vs Guardians
7:10 ET | Progressive Field
8-Unit bet on Angels priced as a +150 underdog using the money line

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 117-165 record for 42% winners averaging a 190 wager for a 19% ROI making $84,630 for the Dime Bettor. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road dogs of 150 and higher using the money line.

·      That unde3rdog won between 72 and 82 games in the previous season.

·      They are on a two or more-game losing streak.

·      The favorite has won at least 50% of their games in the current season.

Yankees vs Orioles
7:05 ET | Orioles Park at Camden Yards
8-Unit bet on the Orioles priced at -100 using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 104-99 (51.2%) record averaging a 125 underdog bet and earning a 15% ROI that has made the Dime Bettor a $46,980 profit since 2007. The requirements are:

·      Bet on teams priced as -110 favorite or underdog using the money line.

·      That team was shutout in the previous game.

·      That team is averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game.

If that host is avenging a loss to a divisional foe in the same series they soar to 38-24 (61%) averaging a 126 underdog bet and earning a 38% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $29,560 profit.

Nationals vs Rangers
8:05 ET | Globe Field Park
8-Unit bet on the Nationals priced at +170 using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 43-38 (53%) record averaging a 145 underdog bet and earning a 29% ROI that has made the Dime Bettor a $30,820 profit since 2019. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams in an inter-league matchup.

·      The host has won 50 to 60% of their games on the season.

·      The host is favored between -140 and -190 favorite.

·      The host averaged at least 1.37 home runs per game in the previous season.

If that host is averaging more than home run per game in the current season our road dogs have gone an impressive 40-33 for 55% averaging a 144 wager earning a 33% Roi and making the Dime Bettor a $30,590 profit.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

Nationals vs Rangers

8:05 ET | Globe Life Field

8-Unit Bet on the Nationals priced as +130 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has posted an exceptional 43-38 record (53%) wins that have averaged a +144-wager earning a 29% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $30,820 profit since 2017. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams in an inter-league matchup.

·      The home team is priced between a -140 and -190 favorite.

·      The home team averaged 1.37 or more home runs per game in their previous season.

·      The home team has won between 50 and 60% of their games in the current season.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

Twins vs CWS

7:40 ET | FS1 Guaranteed rate Field

8-Unit Bet on the White Sox priced as +140 underdogs using the money line.

This game and betting opportunity is certainly a great example of the 100% objective strategy these algorithms help to create each day. Normally, the CWS, with their six wins and riding a three-game win streak would not be on my radar but with the help fo the numbers they become a viable betting opportunity today. Always remember we are not betting teams or mascots and that these types of bets will lose on any given day but that the confidence lies in the fact that over the course of a month or full season these types of contrarian plays will add significantly to total profits made.

The following MLB betting algorithm has posted an exceptional 49-35 record (58.3%) wins that have averaged a +149-wager earning a 39% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $39,150 profit since 2017. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home underdogs.

·      That dog has batted 240 or lower spanning their last 10 games.

·      That dog is starting a pitcher that allowed 5 or more runs (earned and unearned runs) in each of his last two starts.

If our dog is priced at 140 or more they soar to an incredible 23-16 record averaging a 169 wager for a 61% Roi and making the Dime bettor a $30,580 profit on just 39 bets placed.

Note that teams that have won 33% or fewer or one-third of their games on the season and riding a current three or more-game win streak have produced a 40-35 record averaging a 145 underdog bet for a 27% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a 28,890 profit since 2004.

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox
7 ET | ESPN | Fenway Park

8-Unit bet on the Cubs priced as +110 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 29-10 record averaging a 105-underdog wager and making $2,040 per $100 wagered over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on any National League team, scoring 5.2 or more RPG on the season.

·      That team is coming off a dreadful loss by 8 or more runs.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

NY Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers

2:10 ET | American Family Field

8-Unit Bet on the Brewers priced as +115 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has posted an exceptional 49-35 record (58.3%) wins that have averaged a +149 wager earning a 39% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $39,150 profit since 2017. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home underdogs using the money line.

·      That dog saw their bullpen allow four or more earned runs in their previous game.

·      That dog was out hit by double-digits.

Yankees vs Brewers

8:10 ET | American Family Field

8-Unit Bet on the Yankees using the money line priced as a -125 road favorites.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 23-5 record (82%) earning a highly profitable 45% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $18,120 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on favorites in an inter-league game.

·      The Under is priced at 8.5 or more runs.

·      These favorites average four or more walks-per-game on the season.

·      The favorite has allowed three or fewer runs in each of their three previous games.

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers

8:05 ET | Globe Life Field

8-Unit bet on the Reds priced as +145 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 43-38 record (53%) averaging a +147 wager and earning a highly profitable 29% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $27,540 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs priced between 125 and 175 using the money line.

·      The game is an inter-league matchup.

·      They are facing a host that averaged 1.37 or more HR per game in their previous season.

·      They are facing a host that won between 50 and 60% of their games in their previous season.

If that host is averaging more home runs than they did in the previous season, our road underdogs have gone 21-17 averaging a 148 wager for a highly profitable 34% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $15,810 profit over the past five seasons.

 Dodgers at Blue Jays

7:07 ET | Rogers Centre

8-Unit bet on the Dodgers priced as -124 favorites using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 23-5 record (82%) earning a highly profitable 45% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $18,120 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on favorites in an inter-league game.

·      The Under is priced at 8.5 or more runs.

·      These favorites average four or more walks-per-game on the season.

·      The favorite has allowed three or fewer runs in each of their three previous games.

Oakland vs NY Yankees

7 ET | Yankee Stadium

8-unit be ton the A’s using the +1.5 run line.

Consider betting 6 units using the run line and 2 units using the money line for an optimized ROI accompanied by an acceptable risk-to-reward ratio.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-17 record and has averaged a +137 underdog wager and a 71% ROI. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams that are scoring 4.2 or fewer RPG.

·       They are facing an AL host with a starting pitcher that has a 3.50 or lower ERA.

·       The road team allowed one or zero runs in their previous game.

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies

8:40 ET | Coors Field

8-unit be ton the Rockies priced at 160 underdogs using the money line.

The Colorado Rockies start a four-game series against their NL West Divisional rival San Diego Padres with the first pitch scheduled for 8:40 ET, Monday at Coors Field in Denver Colorado. The market has priced the Padres as -190 favorites and the Rockies as 160 underdogs with a posted total of 10.5 runs.

The bad teams in any season are not going to lose every game and they will at some point achieve winning streaks. One of those bad teams is on my radar for the Monday card. Based on win percentage the bad teams are the CWS (3-18), the Miami Marlins (6-17), and the Colorado Rockies (5-17), who are active today based on the following sports betting algorithm.

The Monday MLB betting Algorithm

This betting algorithm has produced a 21-20 record, but by averaging a 178-underdog wager has earned a highly profitable 44% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $23,440 over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home underdogs of at least 150 using the money line.

·       Both teams are members of the same league.

·       The underdog is averaging fewer than one home run per game.

·       The underdog has scored no more than a single run in three or more of their last six games.

If our underdog has won no more than three of their past ten games, the improve to a 17-15 record averaging a 178 underdog bet and earning a 51% ROI making the Dime Bettor a huge profit of $20,380 on just 32 bets over the past five seasons.

Who Are the Starters For this Game?

Dylan Cease will be the starter for the Padres and is off to a solid start with a 2-1 record in four starts with a 1.99 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts. In each of his last three starts he has completed six innings of work and allowed just three earned runs, but he is pitching at mile-high altitude where the Rockies offense performs vastly better then when on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Rockies are batting 0.279 in home games as compared to just 0.227 in road games. They have hit 199 home runs at home as compared to 129 home runs on the road.

Left-hander Austin Gomez will have the ball for the Rockies and is 0-1 in four starts with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP for the season. He was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth round (135th overall) of the 2014 Amateur Draft out of Florida Atlantic University. He is an opposing figure on the hill standing at 6-5 and weighing in at 220 pounds. What he does best is keeping the ball down in the strike zone, which generates a high number of ground ball outs. The number one key to pitching well at Coors Filed and avoiding the home run derby is to keep the ball down in the lower third of the strike zone.

What The Predictive Model Projects

In this game the predictive model projects that the Rockies will have at least one multiple run inning and that Gomez will complete five or more innings. In past home games, the Rockies are 94-34 (73%) averaging a +111 wager earning a highly profitable 52% ROI and earning the Dime Bettor a $88,590 in profits when they have met that pair of performance measures over the past five seasons.  If they scored first in these games has seen the Rockies produce a 57-15 (79%) record averaging a 105 wager earning a 59% Roi that has made the Dime Bettor a $54,470 profit over the past five seasons.

The Player Prop Bets for this Matchup

·       Bet the Padres Fernando Tatis Over 2.5 total bases priced at -105 vig at DraftKings.

·       Bet the Rockies Charlie Blackman to hit a home run priced at +430 at FanDuel.

·       Bet the Rockies Brenton Doyle to hit a home run priced at +560 at FanDuel.

·       Bet the Rockies Ryan McMahon to have two or more hits priced at +240 at FanDuel.

Simply bet these player props as no more than 1-unit and I highly recommend ‘pizza money’ sized wagers. 

Diamondbacks vs Giants

4:05 ET | Oracle Park

8-Unit best bet on the Giants priced as a 105 underdog using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 48-33 record averaging a +150 wager and earning a 41% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $40,000 profit over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home underdogs using the money line.

·       Our underdog was out hit by 10 or more hits in their previous game.

·       Our underdog’s bullpen allowed four or more runs in their previous game.

The Snakes destroyed the Giants 17-1 Friday night and had 22 hits to just four hits by the Giants.

The Thursday card is quite small with most of the teams having the day off ahead of the weekend series. This matchup of NL West foes will start at 9:45 ET and is the first game of a four-game series.

For the season the Diamondbacks are off to a 9-10 start averaging a -104 wager and a losing-money -11% ROI. They have done quite well, though with a 10-4-5 first five record and a solid 13-6 record where they or their opponent scores in the first inning. The biggest problem for the Diamondbacks is their bullpen that is allowing an average of three runs per game ranking 24th in MLB. The Diamondbacks bullpen has posted a 2-6 record including only three saves and five blown saves. So, that unit needs to improve quickly for the Diamondbacks to contend for the playoffs.

The Giants Results Having Posted a Multiple-Run Inning

The Giants are 8-11 averaging a -104 wager and a losing-money -23% ROI for the season. They have been slow starters as evidenced by their anemic 5-13-1 first five innings record. They rank 20th in MLB with 18 multiple run innings, but they have attained a 76-36 (68%) record averaging a -108 wager and earning a 27% ROI when posting at least one multiple-run inning in games played over the past two seasons and an impressive 39-10 (80%) record when these games have been played at home.

Who is Starting for the Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks will have right-hander Ryne Nelson on the hill, who was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round of the 2019 June Amateur Draft and made his MLB debut on September 5, 2022. He averages 95 MPH with his fastball, 91 MOH with a cutter, 83 MOPH with the sider, 85 MPH with the change, and 76 MPH with the curve. However, he rarely throws the curve ball and relies mostly on his fastball and cutter that account for 75% of his offerings. His fastball is flat and gives batters a great opportunity to get the barrel on the ball and drive it into the gaps. He is allowing a poor 91 MPH exit velocity and a 44% hard-hit percentage this season.

The Giants Patrick Bailey and Matt Chapman are pounding the ball averaging better than 93 MPH exit velocities. Chapman, LeMonte Wade, Jr, and Michael Conforto have posted 50% or better hard-hit percentages. The probability is high that the Giants will have at least one multiple-run inning leading them to the victory tonight.

What are My Predictive Models Projecting?

From the predictive models, the Giants have an 85% probability of posting at least one multiple run inning and that their starter Logan Webb will complete more than five innings. The Giants are 44-10 (82%) averaging a -145 wager and earning a highly profitable 44% ROI in home games where their starter pitched more than five innings and the offense posted at least one multiple-run inning in game splayed over the past three seasons.

Bet the San Francisco Giants using the money line.

Guardians vs Red Sox

1:35 ET | Fenway Park

8-Unit bet on the Red Sox using the -1.5 run line.

The Red Sox are priced as -125 favorites so betting the money line is an acceptable strategy. I do recommend a combination wager placing 5 units on the money line and 3 units on the -1.5 run line.

The weather will be on the cooler side with temperatures just under 50 degrees amid cloudy skies. Showers are forecast to begin around 5 ET and later so the game is expected to be completed without any weather issues or delays.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an 88-75 (54%) record averaging a +110 underdog and earning a 12% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $21,430 profit. Using the -1.5 run line has produced a 33-39 record (46%), but by averaging a +148 wager has produced a 16% Roi making the Dime Bettor a $17,743 profit. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home teams playing on Thursday.

·       That home team is averaging 4.2 to 4.5 RPG for the season.

·       The matchup is two teams from the same league.

·       The opponent’s season-to-date starter ERA is 3.75 or lower for the season.

Thursdays are an important day in MLB schedules as they either are the first game of a series or the last game of a series. This game is the last game of the four-game series against the Guardians with the Red Sox looking to even the series at 2-games each with a win today.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 43-52 (45%) record averaging a 148 wager and earning an 11% ROI since 2019. The Dime bettor has made a $16,720 profit. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams from the AL.

·       The road team is priced between a 125 and 175 underdog.

·       The starter has posted an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season.

·       The host has a starter that averages 5 or more Ks per game on the season.

If the total is 8.5 or fewer runs, these road teams have produced a 32-36 record (47%) averaging a 148-underdog bet and earning a 16% ROI since 2019. The Dime Bettor has made $15,360 tailing this algorithm.

The following NBA betting algorithm has earned a 54-24 record averaging a -110 wager and earning a 33% ROI since 2016. The Dime bettor has made a $34,550 profit. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home teams that have won less than 38% of their games.

·       The home team is coming off an upset loss to a divisional foe.

·       The road team has a winning record.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks

9 :40 ET |

8-Unit bet on the Diamondbacks

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 53-14 (79%) winning bets averaging a -171 wager and earning a 42% ROI since 2015. The Dime Bettor has made a $33,930 profit. The requirements are:

·       Bet on a home favorite of -110 or greater using the money line.

·       That team is averaging five or more RPG.

·       The foe is from the NL.

·       The foe has attained a 3.70 or lower season-to-date starter ERA.

·       Our home team has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their last two games.

Royals vs CWS

7:40 ET |

8-Unit bet on the CWS priced as +155 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 21-19 record (53%), but by averaging a +179-underdog wager has earned a 47% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $24,400 profit since 2019. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home underdogs priced at 150 and more.

·       That team is averaging less than one home run per game.

·       That team has scored no more than a single run in three or more of their last 6 games.

·       The matchup is not an inter-league game.

The reason I call these betting algorithms “Blackjack Betting Systems” has nothing to do with the game strategy involved with the most popular casino game on the planet, but it does have to do with the payouts of the game and the algorithm. Ion the game of Blackjack you are paid $100 for a winning $100 hand/bet and 3:2 odds for getting Blackjack, which is 21 attained with the first two cards dealt to you. Let’s remove the 3:2 payout for simplicity reasons. Taking the betting algorithm above that has made 40 bets. In Blackjack if you play 40 $100 hands and win 21 and lose 19 of them, you would have made a profit of $200. However, in this specific betting algorithm you would have been paid $179 for every winning hand/bet made, which turns into a $2,140 profit. That is almost $2,000 more than sitting at a BJ table and you do not even have to leave the comfort of your home.

Note: As an optional bet, take dogs of +150 and more and consider parlaying them together for no more than a 1-Unit betting exposure. If there are three dogs on a specific card, then make them a three-team round robin parlay – again not exceeding more than 1-Unit on any of the three bets.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

Rockies vs Phillies

6:40 ET | Citizens Bank Park

8-Unit bet on the Phillies priced as -225 favorites using the money line.

Consider betting 5.5 units on the -1.5-run line and 2.5 units on the money line for a less aggressive betting strategy. Make certain to read the last paragraph of this report as that proves another solid betting strategy based on a situational angle working against the Rockies.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 38-22 SU (63%) and 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games.

·       The game is played in the second half of the season.

·       That team has lost to the spread by 47 or more points spanning their previous seven games.

·       The opponent has a winning record.

The Rockies are 4-38 losing 30 units when priced as a 200 or greater underdog in games played over the past two seasons. If the game is on the road they then go to a miserable 3-33 losing 27 units. If on the road and the home team is coming off a loss they have gone 1-9 losing 8 units. Of the 36 road games, there have been 17 of them in which the Rockies had a lead. In those games that they had a lead they went 3-14 losing 8.5 units.

So, 36 games saw the Rockies have a lead in 17 of them or just under 50%. Consider betting 50% preflop using the money line and then look to add 50% more when the Rockies have a lead at the end of their part of the inning (Top of the xth inning) add the remaining 50% betting the Phillies. I prefer that this strategy only include the first-five innings and not later. Worst case is you have 50% on the Phillies and if nothing more is added also reflects a Phillies lead.

The Phillies are off to an 8-8 start to their season, which is quite good considering they are batting just 0.234 and scoring 3.6 RPG. Their bullpen has steadily improved since the an abysmal start to the season, but still have posted a 5.24 ERA with a 1.447 WHIP on the season.

Since allowing 7 ER in his first start of the season, Nola has pitched well allowing just 2 ER over his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings of work. He will face a Rockies lineup that is below average and batting 0.237 and scoring 3.9 RPG in 10 road games this season. The Rockies bullpen is not good once again and the Phillies bats will score a lot of runs in this series.

Cal Quantrill will get the ball for the Rockies, who was drafted by the New York Yankees in the 26th round of the 2013 MLB June Amateur Draft from Trinity School located in Port Hope Ontario. He then was drafted by the San Diego Padres eight overall in the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Stanford University. He was traded to the Guardians in the 2020 season and pitched well highlighted by a 15-5 record in the 2022 season. Since then he has not pitched well going 4-9 the last two seasons including 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA this season.

I rarely bet on favorites this steep in MLB or the NHL as you have seen for decades. However, give the strength of this Dodgers’ roster, this is one of those situations where the bet is justified. For a more conservative strategy consider betting 5.5 units on the -1.5 run line and 2.5 units using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 44-8 record (85%) averaging a -206 wager and earning a 44% ROI making the Dime bettor a $58,400 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home favorites between -175 and -250 using the money line.

·       Our home favorite is coming off a one-run loss priced as a home favorite to a divisional foe.

·       The current opponent is coming off a win over a divisional foe.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

Braves vs Marlins

4:10 ET | Loan Depot

8-Unit bet on the Marlins priced as +165 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 20-19 SU (51%) averaging a 179 underdog bet and earning a highly profitable 44% ROI that has made the Dime bettor a $27,760 profit since 2019. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams priced as 150 or greater underdogs.

·       The underdog is averaging fewer than 1 home run per game.

·       The underdog has scored no more than one run in three of this last six games.

·       The game is not an inter-league game.

Angels vs Red Sox

7:10 ET | NESN/ESPN+

8-Unit bet on the Angels priced as -105 favorites using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 45-21 SU (68%) averaging a 121 underdog bet and earning a highly profitable45% ROI that has made the Dime bettor a $39,470 profit since 2019. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams that have won 50 to 55% if their games.

·       That host team is coming off a three-game series loss to a divisional foe.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 33-9 SU (79%) averaging a 101 underdog bet and earning a highly profitable 65% ROI. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams following three consecutive games where the bullpen allowed three or more runs.

·       The host has a bullpen posting a solid 1.200 WHIP over their last 10 games.

Detmers is a left-handed starter that has produced a 1-1 record in four career starts against the Red Sox posting a 2.53 ERA and a 1.031 WHIP. His last start was April 6 when he completed 6 innings allowing 1 ER on three hits including one walk and 12 strikeouts.

Brewers vs Orioles

7:05 ET | Apple TV+

8-Unit Bet on the Brewers using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 28-23 SU (55%) averaging a 139 underdog bet and earning a highly profitable 28% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on NL road underdogs.

·       The road team is facing an AL foe.

·       Both teams have strong offenses scoring an average of 4.75 or more RPG.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 38-18 SU (66%) averaging a 101 underdog bet and earning a highly profitable 33% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams.

·       The matchup features both teams that have won 62% or more of their games.

·       The home team is on a two or more-game win streak.

If the game occurs in the first 25% (41 games) of the regular season, these road teams have gone an outstanding 22-6 SU (79%) averaging a -103 wager and earning highly profitable 55% ROI.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 38-9 SU (81%) averaging a 107-underdog bet and earning a highly profitable 74% ROI over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams that have won their last two games by four or more runs.

·       The road team is an aggressive base-running team averaging 1.0 or more stolen bases per game.

“Bet with your head and Never Over it and May all the Wins be Yours!”

Athletics vs Rangers

8:05 ET | Globe Life Field

8-Unit bet on the Athletics using the money line and priced as 158 underdogs.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 14-8 record averaging a +150-underdog bet and producing a impressive 56% ROI making the Dime Bettor a profit of $14,910 over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road dogs priced between 125 and 175.

·       The host has lost three consecutive games against a divisional foe.

·       The foe has won 50 to 55% of their games.

If the total is priced at 9 or more runs, these unwanted puppies have gone 7-2 averaging a 152-underdog wager earning a 93% ROI.

White Sox vs Guardians

6:10 ET | Progressive Field

8-Unit bet on the White Sox using the money line priced at +168 underdogs.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned an 8-11 record averaging a +192-underdog bet and producing a impressive 21% ROI making the Dime Bettor a profit of $6,300 over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on a dog of 150 or more using the money line.

·       That dog has posted an anemic average of 1.80 or fewer RPG over their past 10 games.

If our dog is on the road, they have gone 6-7 averaging a 198 dog wager and earning a 30% ROI.

This bet is the definition of a value bet just like I would identify a value-based stock over a growth stock. I do not care what the name of the company is or what the name of the team or their mascot is only that they have gone through extraordinarily tough times recently. These teams/companies have become grossly mispriced by the sports betting/financial markets.

Same applies to the stocks as I do not completely care what the name of the stock is, but rather the industry I am investing in and the situations that industry finds itself relative to the high-flying growth stocks like NVDA and the AI industry sub-sector of technology. This is obviously a generalization and I do perform extensive underlying research for both the sports bets and my stock and commodity recommendations.

This value-based situation is why I call these plays Black Jack systems drawing on the most popular casino ever. BJ plays you 1:1 for winning hands and 3:2 for Black Jack hands. So, for simplistic reasons let’s remove the BJ pauouts and deal just with the winning hands paying 1:1. In the aforementioned betting algorithm our underdog has posted a losing record of 8-11. If you went to a casino and played 19 hands of BJ going 8-11 you would have lost $300 on those 19 hands played. However, based on this betting algorithm, you would have still gone 8-11, but with the payouts averaging $192 per $100 bet you come away with a profit of $276. That’s a difference of $576 dollars and you do not need to even leave your home or be dependent on a fellow BJ player drawing a card having 14 and the dealer showing a 2.

Miami Marlins vs NY Yankees

6:05 ET | Yankee Stadium

8-Unit bet on the Marlins using the money line priced at +145 and is valid to +130.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 49-49 record averaging a +150-underdog bet and producing a impressive 24% ROI making the Dime Bettor a profit of $30,090 over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road underdogs between +125 and +175 using the money line.

·       That team is batting 250 or less on the season.

·       The host has a solid bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 or less.

·       The game takes place in April.

·       The game is a non-divisional matchup.

·       The host has achieved an average of 37% of their base runner score.

Luzardo will have the ball for the Marlins and he is one of the best starters in MLB. He possesses a 97 MPH fastball that has tremendous late-breaking movement, a 92 MPH slider, and a very good 88 MPH changeup. He throws that fastball about 45% of the time and mixes in the other 50% of pitches using his slider and change equally. He gets an outstanding 34% whiff rate with batters chasing pitches out of the strike zone at a 26% clip.

Luzardo is expected to have strong success against this power and pull-hitting lineup. The Yankees Stanton swings at 46% of offerings that are out of the strike zone and whiffs on 41% of all pitches thrown. That is not to say if Luzardo makes a mistake to Stanton that the ball will not be crushed, but rather the probabilities of Luzardo getting him and other Yankee batters out, especially on ground balls, is much higher.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 23-27 SU (46%) record averaging a +131 underdog and earning a highly profitable 15% ROI since 2004. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home underdogs priced up to 150 using the money line.

·       The dog saw 15 or more runs scored in their previous game.

·       The total is 10 or more runs.

·       The game occurs in the first half of the season.

·       The opponent outscored their foes by at least 0.5 RPG in the previous season.

If the total is priced at 11 or more runs our underdogs improve to an outstanding 9-7 record averaging a 128 underdog bet and earning a 20% ROI.

Chicago White Sox

7:10 ET | Kauffman Stadium

8-Unit bet on the CWS priced as +180 underdogs using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned a 78-137 record good for 36% winning bets, but by averaging a robust 203 underdog bet has earned the Dime bettor a profit of $50,480 since 2018. The requirements are:

·       Bet on underdogs of 165 or more using the money line.

·       The underdog has had fewer than 10 hits in each of their last five games.

·       The underdog is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base-hits per game.

The betting markets have the 5-2 Guardians priced as a +135 underdogs at BetMGM when they face the 3-2 Twins Thursday afternoon starting at 4:10 PM EST. The total is priced at 7.5 runs at DraftKings.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 59-26 record for 69% winning bets that have averaged a -135 favorite and earned 22.78 units per unit wagered over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on any AL teams scoring 5.4 or more RPG.

·      That team’s defense has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games.

·      That team is facing a foe that has a solid bullpen posting a 3.75 or lower ERA.

If the game occurs in the first 20 games of the season, these teams have produced a highly profitable 17-7 record for 71% winning bets averaging a -140 wager and earning a stellar 178% ROI over the past five seasons. In addition, if they are priced as the underdog they have gone 5-0!

The following betting algorithm has produced a terrific and highly profitable 48-13 record for 79% winners averaging a +120 wager and making 39.13 units per unit wagered. The Dime Player has made a profit of $39,130 over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on a team that is coming off a 3-game series sweep of a divisional rival.

·       The current game is against a foe from the other League (inter-league).

If our team is on the road in the current matchup, they soar to a remarkable 21-4 record for 84% winners averaging a +107 wager and earning a highly profitable 63% Roi over the past five seasons.

The Weather Forecast

There is a 25% chance of light precipitation at game time, but may not be enough of a problem, to cause a stoppage. If the game is postponed, the bet will remain valid for the Tuesday card as an 8-Unit best bet.

Rangers vs Rays

6:50 ET | FS1 | Tropicana Field

8-Unit Bet on the Rays using the money lie priced at -125 and is valid to -135.

The following betting algorithm has produced a terrific and highly profitable 59-34 record for 63% winners averaging a -117 wager and making 24.61 units per unit wagered. The Dime Player has made a profit of $24, 610 over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on a team that has lost five consecutive games to the current opponent.

·       None of those losses occurred in this season.

·       They are favored between a -100 and -135 favorite on the money line.

The following betting algorithm has produced a terrific and highly profitable 59-34 record for 63% winners averaging a -117 wager and making 24.61 units per unit wagered. The Dime Player has made a profit of $24, 610 over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are:

·       Bet on any team that is facing a top-level offensive team that averaged 5.5 or more RPG in the previous season.

·       That elite offensive foe is coming off a game in which they allowed eight or more runs.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a profitable 21-23 record averaging a +135 wager and earning a 23% ROI since 2004. The Dime Bettor has made a profit of $9,940 following this algorithm. The requirements are:

·       Bet against the Nationals using the money line.

·       The Nationals are priced as a home favorite.

·       The game is the first game of a new series.

·       They had no days off between the last game played and this game.

·       They allowed six or more runs on their previous game.

Marco Gonzales (Pittsburgh Pirates): The 32-year-old lefty will take the mound for the Pirates. Last season, he posted a 5.22 ERA with a 4-1 record in 10 starts. Gozalez has a terrific 10 MPH speed differential between his fastball, which is 89 MPH and his change-up averaging 79 MPH. Batters have a difficult time differentiating between the fastball and the change-up pitch. Gonzalez throws a near equal amount of fastballs and change-ups and sprinkles in a curve ball about 24% of the time.

Weather Forecast
The forecast is for mostly could skies and temp in the mid 50’s this afternoon. There is no more than a 20% chance of rain and any type of precipitation may not be enough to cause a delay in the game.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 55-38 record averaging a +165 wager and earning 52 units per unit wagered spanning the past 25 seasons. Over the past five season it has produced a 6-5 record making 5.1 units per unit wagered and earning a solid 55% ROI. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road underdogs of =140 or more.

·       Our road team is facing an AL host.

·       The AL host is starting a pitcher that had a 4.20 to 4.70 ERA in the previous season.

The Orioles will start Grayson Rodriguez, who posted a 7-4 record and a 14-9 team record in 23 starts last season. He posted a 4.35 ERA and a 3.93 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) last season. He did a solid job at getting strikeouts and avoiding home runs, hit batters, and walks as reflected by a lower FIP than ERA.

He throws a solid fastball and slider, but still needs to improve on his changeup, which he has a tendency to leave up in the strike zone. He has faced the Angels three times in his career and those starts did not go well posting a 9.23 and a 2.210 WHIP spanning 12 2/3 innings of work. He faced them once last season in a home start at Camden Yards and took the loss allowing 9 hits and a hoe run in 5 1/3 inning of work in a 3-1 Angels win.

Griffin Canning is scheduled to start Saturday and is coming off a solid Spring Training and appears poised to take his arsenal to the next level. He posted a 3.78 ERA and a 1.128 WHIP including a 3.15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five Spring Training starts. This will be his fifth year in the Majors and with the Angels and is coming off career best in strikeout percentage (25%) and walk percentage (6%).

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park

8-Unit bet on the Phillies using the money line priced at +110 and is valid up to -115.

Date and Time: The game is scheduled for Friday, March 29, 2024, with the first pitch set for 3:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

Weather Delay: Due to inclement weather, the originally planned Thursday home opener has been postponed to Friday3. Gates will open at 12:35 p.m., and on-field festivities will begin around 2:20 p.m.

Pitching Matchup:

Atlanta Braves: Right-hander Spencer Strider is expected to start. Strider, a 2020 fourth-round draft pick, impressed in 2023 with a 20-5 record. In four starts against the Phillies last year, he went 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA, allowing just 18 hits and 7 earned runs while striking out 384.

Philadelphia Phillies: They’ll send Zack Wheeler to the mound. Wheeler had a solid 2023 season, posting a 3.86 ERA in 186.2 innings with 281 strikeouts.

Historical Context:

The Braves, fresh off their NL East championship in 2023, the Braves have not been able to defeat the Phillies in back-to-back NLDS losses to the Phillies.

The Phillies, who finished second in the division last year, made it to the NLCS but were upset in seven games to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The all-time series favors the Braves at 1174-1101, although the Phillies hold a 594-552 edge in games played at Philadelphia.

The Braves have not been a solid team to bet on in day games sporting a 58-59 record losing 30 units resulting in a -17% ROI spanning the past three seasons. The Braves are also just 3-7 losing 4.55 units on opening day spanning the past 10 seasons. The Phillies are 131-64 averaging a -137 favorite and earning a 22% ROI in home games when their starter completed more than five innings. Zack Wheeler, the ace is on the hill today. If the are priced as a home dog, they have gone 18-12 averaging a +120 wager and earning a 29% ROI over the past five seasons.

As an extra bet to consider I like Trea Turner to win the NL MVP Award this year priced at +2200 at BetMGM. No more than 1-Unit is recommended for this wager.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
10-Unit best bet on the Rangers using the money line.

If I am correct, this will be the last game of a tremendous 2023 MLB season.
Betting on teams in the world series that are on the rod and have three wins in the series has gone 12-6 averaging a +124-dog wager and earning a 48% ROI. Teams with three wins in the world series and are favored have gone 9-4 averaging a -144-wager good for a 22% ROI.

Nathan Eovaldi will be on the hill for the Rangers and is 3-0 in six starts against the Diamondbacks with a 3.12 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP. More importantly, he is pitching well in the playoffs posting a 4-0 record in five starts with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and five walks spanning 30 2/3 innings of work.  For Arizona, Zac Gallen will be on the hill and has struggled to a 2-2 record in five starts with a 5.27 ERAS and a 1.500 WHIP with just 18 strikeouts and 13 walks over 27 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.625 WHIP, with just 10 walks and terrible 8 free passes over 16 innings of work. His first start against the Brewers has been his only quality start in the playoffs and he has steadily worsened since.

Betting on road teams priced between -130 and +130 on the money line that have stranded 5 or fewer runners on base in each of their last two games and has an overworked bullpen that has thrown a total of 13 or more innings over their previous three games has gone 57-26 averaging a +105 dog spanning the past five seasons.

In the WS, teams that scored 10+ runs in their previous game are 14-5 for 74% averaging a -130 wager and earning a 44% ROI. And the clincher is the fact that these teams that scored 10 or more runs and now are favored have gone 13-1 averaging a -151 wager and earning a 67% ROI. In 10 of these games, the opponent never had the lead.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
8:07 PM EST, Game 7
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line.

Consider betting 6-Units on the money line preflop and then add the 2-units using the -1.5 alternative run line if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead at some point during the first four innings.

Game 7’s are special situations and the most exciting elimination game possible in all of sports. Since 2004, the home team is 10-8 averaging a -125 favorite for 56% winners and earning a 2% ROI. The average score has been 4.61-3.78 with the home team scoring 4.61 runs. It is all hands on deck for the every pitcher physically capable of throwing even a single out. However, the average pitchers used has been a combined total of 9 pitchers with the home team averaging 4.61 and the road team 4.39.

A potential live in game bet is to take whoever is leading after four innings are completed knowing that teams in this year’s playoffs that have held a lead after the 4th inning have gone 31-2 averaging a -101 wager and earning a 94%-win percentage. Also, the team leading after four innings, not tied, in game 7’s has gone to a 12-3 record for 80% averaging a -105 wager and earning a 57% ROI since 2004. IN the playoffs, the Phillies are 34-5 for 87% averaging a -116 wager and earning a 65% ROI since 2004 in game 7’s; and 21-2 for 91% winners averaging a -135 wager and earning a 72% ROI since 2004.

Ranger Suarez will be on the hill tonight for the Phillies and has been pitching in top-form durig the playoffs and has been a formidable force during the regular season. He is 20-10 making 15 units when facing a team with a winning record over the past two seasons; 12-1 making 12 units in home games facing a NL team that is batting 0.250 or lower in the second of the last three seasons; 9-0 making 11 units if that NL team is batting 0.260 or lower in the second half of the last two seasons. When Suarez has started in the playoffs, the Phillies are 8-1 making 11 units.

Suarez has posted a remarkable 0.64 ERA and a 0.643 WHIP with 13 strikeouts and just 2 walks in his three playoff starts this season.

NLCS Game 7 Best Bet

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
5:07 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line.

Consider betting 6-Units on the money line preflop and then add the 2-units using the -1.5 run line if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead at some point during the first four innings.

The Phillies have posted an excellent 0.344 on-base-percentage with 23 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and 22 doubles in 11 playoff games. The Snakes have posted a 0.308 OBP with 16 home runs, and just 13 doubles in 10 playoff games. Big offensive advantage to the Phillies lineup.

Betting against road teams in October and November that are batting 0.230 or lower spanning their last 15 games has earned a highly profitable 48-17 record for 74% winners averaging a -133 wager and earning a 42% ROI in playoffs games. In playoffs games only, betting against these road teams has gone 23-11 for 68% winners averaging a -123 wager and earning a 31% ROI over the past 5 seasons. If that road team is batting under 0.,220 over their previous 15 games, facing them has produced a 26-10 record for 72% winners averaging a 37% ROI over the past 10 playoff seasons.

The Phillies Aaron Nola is in top form posting a 0.96 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in three playoff starts. He has an exceptional K/walk ratio over 9 with 19 K’s and just 2 free passes in 18 2/3 innings of work. Overall, Nola has had 545 batted ball events for the season that have averaged a 12.7 degree launch angle, an excellent 89.3 average exit velocity, just 38% hard-hit percentage, 0.300 expected OBP, striking out 25.5% of the batters faced and walking just 5.7% of the batters faced.

The Phillies will look to be quite aggressive on the base paths knowing that Merrill Kelly is not all that good at keep runners close at first base and their catcher Gabriel Moreno has a 1.90 pop time. That POP time is above average in the majors, but the Phillies have the team speed to more than offset that asset. Moreover, the Phillies JT Realmuto has the MLB best POP time at 1.82 seconds averaging 87 MPH throw down to second base. Moreno averages just 82 MPH. Plus, Kelly throws off speed on 35% of his pitches so look for the Phillies to anticipate those softer pitches given them more than ample time to grab a stolen base.

NLCS Game 6 Best Bet

8-Unit Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered at by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night.

Only one other time in the past 20 seasons has a seven game playoff series saw the road team win the first six games. That was in the 2019 season when the Astros and Washington Nationals saw all seven games being won by the road team. With a 3-2 series lead heading back to Houston, the Astros failed to close out that World Series losing game 6 by a final score of 7-2 and then losing game 7 by a final score of 6-2. The current edition of the Astros is a vastly more formidable offense and I do not see them failing to score an abundance of runs in either game.

The Starters for Game 6

The Texas Rangers have the edge in starting pitching sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill to face the Astros Framber Valdez. Eovaldi is making his 29th start of the season and has posted a15-5 record with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP including 156 strikeouts over 163 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts all in the playoffs he has amassed a quite strong 2.29 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and one walk over 19 2/3 innings of work.

Valdez has logged a ton of innings over the past two seasons and that heavy workload is shoing in his recent starts. He will be making his 34th start with a 12-13 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and including 211 strikeouts spanning 205 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 9.82 ERA, 2.545 WHIP with 18 strikeouts and nine walks over just 11 innings of work. In two playoff starts he has been hammered to the tune of an 11.57 ERA and a horrid 2.571 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and four walks over just seven innings of work.

Valdez could be suffering from a ‘tired arm’ injury where many times the hand goes numb temporarily after a pitch. When this happens you will see the pitcher shaking his hand as if he is trying to loosen up his shoulder, but it is the hand that and fingers that he is tryig to get back to a sense of feeling. I am guessing, but I have been around baseball for more than three decades and I have seen this before and the injury is always accompanied by a significant loss of control and increase in the number of walks. I am surprised that Dusty Baker has elected to go with him for this incredibly important game tonight.

The Bullpen Edge Goes to the Astros

The reason why Baker may be opting to take a risk and start Valdez is that he knows he has the vastly better bullpen right now. The Rangers need Eovaldi to log as many scoreless innings as possible knowing their bullpen has posted a 4.12 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP, allowing six home runs, 33 strikeouts and 22 walks in the playoffs. The Astros have posted a 2.19 ERA and a 0.811 WHIP with 45 strikeouts, 11 walks, just three home runs allowed in 37 innings of work.

Situational Betting Algorithm Supports the Rangers

The following betting algorithm has produced a 35-15 record for 70% winners averaging a -105 wager over the past five seasons. Betting on road teams with a solid starter posting an ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season, are priced between a 125 dog and a -125 favorite and facing a host that is hitting no better than 0.260 on the season.

8-Unit Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered at by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

8:07 PM EST, October 20, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 4 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship.

Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season.

The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven.

In the playoffs, teams with a 2-1 series lead and lost their last game are 36-20 (64%) 30% ROI

If a rod favorite: 9-2 (82%) 47% ROI

Teams that are winning the series and have a bullpen that is allowing

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:07 PM EST, October 19, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 3 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship.

Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season.

The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. Road teams in the playoffs that have won the first two games of the series are 28-23 for 55% averaging a +111 DOG and earning a 17% ROI.

The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who was drafted #1569 overall in the 5th round of 2020 draft and attended Bellarmine University. He is a right-handed pitcher and MLB prototype 6-4 and 220 pounds. He throws 4-seam 45%, a slurve 27%, change up to mostly LH batters 12% and a sinker 10% and the rest a rare curveball. Since he does throw a slurve (Now called a sweeper and I hate it TBH) so the curve ball rarity is pointless.

The bad news for Pfaadt other than being thrown into the Lion’s den, is that he ranks poorly in pitching run value, and just the fifth percentile in fastball run value. Worse yet he ranks in the bottom third percentage in barrel percentage and that is what the Phillies lineup top to bottom does very well right now. I think the Diamondbacks will look to get him through the lineup at least once and no more than twice and then look to their bullpen to finish off the remaining innings.

Of the 1,612 pitches he has thrown, he has yielded 109 hits and 26 walks over 96 innings. 74 of the 109 hits allowed had exit velocities of over 100 MPH, which is horrid, especially against a power-hitting team like the Phillies. Moreover, his expected weighted OBP is 0.291enterig this game.

Brandon Pfaadt Under 11.5 recorded outs +110 at BetMGM

Bryson Stott to record an RBI +225 at UniBet

Corbin Carroll to record a double +550 at Bet365

Nick Castellanos to score a run +170 at DrfatKings

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

15.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

16.  Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

17.  Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

18.  Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100

19.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100

20.  Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100

21.  Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers – W +116

22.  Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel – L - 160

23.  Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM – W +100

24.  Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM – W +120

25.  Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one) L -50

                 Total: +701

Houston vs Texas

8:03 PM EST, October 18, 2023

Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX

8-UNIT BEST BET on the Texas Rangers using the money line

The Rangers have been nearly as hot as the Phillies in their playoff run and a bit surprising too given that they blew the division crown in the Final weeks and had to go on the road to play a best-of-three series at the Tampa Bay Rays. Texas has won all seven of their playoff games and just one of those games has been at home. They have outscored their foes 39-16 including two shutouts.

Teams that won the first two games of a playoff series on the road and now at home have gone 21-14 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 15% ROI. If they are a favorite of not more than -150, they have gone 15-9 SU averaging a -129 wager and earning a 17% ROI. Texas is 14-6 for 70% averaging a -117-wager earning a 35% ROI when facing a foe that is scoring an average of 4.8 or more RPG in games played after the all start break this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:07 PM EST, October 17, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

Dan Iassogna will be the home plate umpire and for the 2023 season, home teams have gone just 10-20 SU under his strike zone watch. This is quite misleading as coincidentally he was behind the plate in 14 of those games with the home team posting a losing record at the time and with that team going 4-10. So, winning record home teams went 6-10 on the season with Iassogna as the home plate umpire. In the playoffs this will be his 15th game behind the plate and the home team is 7-7, but the Over is 8-4 for 67%. Also, for his career, winning record home teams are 90-71 (56%) when facing a winning record foe.

Here is the umpire angle supporting the Phillies. When Iassogna has been behind the dish, winning record home favorites of -150 or more hosting a winning record foe have gone 33-12 for 73% averaging a -178 wager and earning a 22% ROI for his career.

Phillies’ skipper Rob Thomson is 41-15 making 22 units when facing a NL foe that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of the season in each of the previous two seasons.

In the playoffs, teams that have batted .230 or worse over their previous 15 games have gone 69-104 (40%) averaging a +105 wager and a money-losing -23% ROI. If these teams are on the road have gone 28-52 for 35% averaging a 121 wager and a losing -24% ROI. If the game 2 or beyond and coming off a loss, these road teams have gone 11-26 (30%) averaging a +118 wager and a losing -37% ROI.

Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers

Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel

Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM

Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM

Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one)

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

15.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

16.  Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

17.  Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

18.  Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100

19.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100

20.  Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100

                 Total: +575

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:07 PM EST, October 16, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to dd 2 unit smore if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

Based on the analytics, on-base-percentage supersedes home run hitting in the playoffs. Of course, there are the games like Game 4 of the NLCS where all the runs scored in the 3-1 Phillies win were solo home runs. However, the innings and at-bats prior to those home runs set the stage for the Phillies to hit six home runs in Game 3 and three in Game 4. In the playoffs, keeping a starting pitcher under duress with consistent base-running traffic will set the stage for the home run and ultimately the dominant factor in most playoff wins. Then first and third situation is the most stressful for a starting pitcher and the Phillies have generated far more of those situations than any other team in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, the Diamondbacks have 44 hits, 21 walks, and 19 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have amassed 54 hits, 23 walks, and 26 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have attained an outstanding 0.411 on-base-percentage while the Diamondbacks are right on their heels posting a 0.393 OBP in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks rank tops in the playoffs having seen an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearance and the Phillies rank 4th averaging 4.05 pitches seen per plate appearance.

The Phillies’ left fielder Nick Castellanos became the first player in MLB post season history to hit two or more home runs in consecutive games and ranks best with 23 total bases in the playoffs. He and teammate Trea Turner rank best with six extra-base hits. Turner ranks best with a remarkable 0.556 batting average of balls in play and 7th in Isolated Power.  The depth of this lineup gives the Phillies a significant offensive advantage over the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies’ Rookie sensation and center fielder Johan Rojas is already one of the best in the game today and was credited with a potential series saving catch in the gap in deep left-center fielder off the bat of Ronald Acuna. His defense far outweighs his struggles at the plate, and it is a bonus when he gets on base to turn the lineup over. JR Realmuto is the best catcher in the game bar none and over the Phillies defense is monumentally better and more consistent than the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson, who utilized 110 different starting lineups this season, and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against any team and have by far the best home field advantage and their incredibly supportive and passionate fan base. There are home field advantages and then there is Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park.

As was the case in the two previous series, the biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen, which was outstanding against the Braves. The unit is clearly an example of when you are called into the game just do your job. Phillies’ manager Rob Thomson used the relievers in various roles in the regular and playoff seasons and even had Matt Strahm on the hill to close out the series against the Braves, which was just hist his third save of the season.

In the Phillies’ 3-1 Game-4 win that clinched the Divisional Series over the Braves, both Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber failed to get a hit. In past games, the Phillies are 9-3 following a game in which Schwarber and Stott did not get a hit. Stott and Schwarber are on my radar for the DraftKings lineups for the first two games of this series. Supports Phillies in Game 1.

Phillies are 38-14 averaging a -165 wager and earning a 33% ROI in home games and taking on a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower in games played after the all-star break and playoffs in the past two seasons.

Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the first game of a playoff series spanning the last two seasons.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-8 record for 80% winning bets in games played in October and November over the past five regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a foe that has achieved a 0.480 slugging percentage over their previous five games in the month of October.

My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the money line and then look to add the remaining two units if the Diamondbacks score first or retake the lead during the first four innings of this game as offered at DraftKings.\

Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365

Bryson Stott to hit a double +525 at BetRivers

Alex Bohm to get a hit -250 at Unibet

Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

15.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

16.  Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

17.  Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

18.  Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers

                 Total: +875

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line

In this game, like yesterday’s game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability.

Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 36-11 record for 77% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

The Phillies tied a MLB Playoff record with 6 home runs in Wednesday’s huge 10-2 win over the Braves. Note that teams in the playoffs that have hit four or more home runs in their previous home game and now playing at home again have gone 9-3 SU averaging a -111 wager and earning a 47% ROI.

Harper hit two home runs and in previous games in which he hit 2+ home runs his teams have gone 10-5 for a 25% ROI. Castellanos hit two home runs in his previous game and the Phillies are 4-1 in the next game.

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

                 Total: +875

Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

7:07 EST

10-Unit Best Bet on the Twins using the money line, currently priced at -120.

This line is likely to trend a bit lower ahead of the first pitch in the aftermath of the monster win by the Astros last night and the public’s recency bias. So far, 76% of the tickets and only 55% of the money has been on the Astros and this sentiment is bullish on the Twins.

Betting on home teams that have gone 10 straight games committing no more than a single error in any of them and facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game have gone 101-55 SU for 65% winning bets averaging a -100 bet and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI since 2019. If in the playoffs, these teams have gone a perfect 7-0 averaging a -105 wager and earning a 100% ROI.

In the playoffs, Home teams that are facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game of the series have gone 11-2 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 64% ROI.

Aaron Nola Over 4.5 strikeouts -160 at DraftKings
Bryce Elder Under 11.5 recorded outs -105 at Caesars

Trea Turner top hit a home run +390
Realmuto to hit a home run +475

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

                 Total: +875

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Citizens Bank Park, Atlanta, GA

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line

In this game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability.

Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 35-11 record for 75% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line

As we did in the historic Game 1 win by the Phillies, consider betting 5.5 units on the money line and 2.5 units on the +1.5-run line.

The expectations for this Game 2 of the NLDS is that the Braves are too good not to bounce back with a ‘must-win’ performance tonight. However, the Braves Achilles heel was revealed in game 1 as their production has dropped significantly when facing power hurlers averaging 97+ MPH. Zack Wheeler is one of them and he is pitching tremendous baseball right and he is a priced as a dog.

Wheeler is 12-8 in 28 career starts against the Braves with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP. The Braves will start Max Fried, who has been battling nagging injuries and is 4-4 in 14 career starts against the Phillies with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP.

For his career, Wheeler is 6-6 averaging a 170-underdog bet and earning a 32% ROI when priced as a +150 and greater underdog. Every start has been on the road. For this season, he has gone 14-6 in 33 starts with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.062 WHIP including 220 strikeouts and just 39 walks spanning 198 2/3 innings of work. In 17 road starts he has been even better with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP including 115 strikeouts and just 20 walks and allowed just 7 home runs spanning 102 2/3 innings of work.

Of all starters with 450 or more batted ball events, Wheeler is tied with Corbin Burnes for the MLB best 3.4% barrels per plate appearance. This means that only three batters ever get credit with hitting the ball on the sweet spot or barrel of the bat. So, for every 27 batters Wheeler faces will square up the barrel of the bat on one of his deliveries. That is remarkable and that is the elixir that gives the Braves nightmares.

Wheeler ranks third in MLB with an 11.9% hard-hit percentage of pitches thrown 95 or more MPH and third with an average exit velocity of just 86.9 MPH.

Fried has not had enough batted ball events to be part of that list. He is an excellent starter and will throw fastball 45%, 12% slider, 17% change (used mostly to RH batters), and curve 26%. He does have one of the best curve balls in the game and largely because of the very high spin rate that averages 2800 MPH. At that high of a spin rate, makes it difficult for any batter to identify. However, that pitch starts a bit higher out of the release than his fastball and that will help Phillies batters. You can bet that he will throw that pitch a lot to the LH batters such as Schwarber and Harper tonight.

Betting on road underdogs coming off a an upset win over a divisional rival and is now starting a pitcher that has allowed no more than a single earned run in each of his last two outings has earned a highly profitable 26-20 for 57%, but has averaged a +152 wager and earning a 41% ROI in games bet over the past 5 seasons. If our road warrior is priced as a +140 and higher dog, they soar to a remarkable 16-11 record averaging a 175 wager and earning a 61% ROI over the past five seasons.

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round

Marlins vs Phillies

MLB 10-UNIT BEST BET Titan on the Phillies using the money line

Consider betting 7.5-Units on the money line pre-flop and then look to add the remaining 2.5 units if the Marlins score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of action.

OR

Place 7 units on the money line pre-flop because they are priced as a -150 money line favorite and then look for Miami to score first or possibly retake the lead over the first three innings and add the 3-units on the -1.5 run line, which would be at least +150 in this situation. Phillies have won many games coming from behind late in the games this season. In fact, they have won 18 games ranking second most being tied or down no more than 2 runs entering the 9th inning. Moreover, when the game was home at Citizens’ Bank Park, the Phillies won 9 games tied for most comeback wins with the Tampa Bay Rays.

In home games this season, the Phillies posted the best record at 25-21 when the foe scored first in the game.

Aaron Nola has had an up and down type of season, but he has pitched well down the stretch. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.60 ERA and a 1.038 WHIP with just one walk allowed and striking out 17 batters over 17 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed 32 home runs on the season, but just one over his last three starts and three over his last six starts. Earlier this year starting in late April he went 11 consecutive starts allowing at least one home run. So, don’t count on any starter’s season-to-date stats to have significant meaning in the playoffs rounds.

Braxton Garrett is a lefty and will start the game for the Marlins. The Phillies line up scored almost a run less versus LH starters than RH starters on the season, but they also averaged a bit more than the average NL team when facing a LH starter. Garrett throws a fastball with solid sinking action about 40% of the time and then adds a slurve (sweeper) about 42% and then the remaining 18% is the change thrown almost exclusively to RH starters and a curve to LH batters. His spin rates are average or slightly below average for a MLB pitcher and the Phillies are a disciplined hitting team overall. The best eye on the team is their leadoff slugger Kyle Schwarber and he will look to get a maximum number of pitches thrown before he reaches base or records an out. Patience on the first pitch will be key IMO.

Garrett has allowed a terrible 45% hard hit percentage. Nola just 38%. Garrett has recorded a 0.272 expected batting average as compared to Nola’s 0.241.

Last, the Phillies bullpen is completely rested, and this is by far the biggest advantage they have tonight. For the season the relievers have posted a 3.53 ERA and a 1.265 WHIP spanning 545 innings of work including 592 strikeouts. Over the past 7 games, the unit has posted a 1.27 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP with 37 strikeouts over 28 1/3 innings of work. The Marlines pen has thrown 80 innings more than the Phillies posting a 4.39 ERA and a 1.352 WHIP.

1.     Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet

2.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450

3.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM

1.     Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

                 Total: +515

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:00 PM EST, October 3, 2023
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line

Betting on NL home teams using the money line that are averaging 1.30 or more home runs per game and have batted .250 or lower spanning their last 20 games has earned a 77-31 record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Zack Wheeler will be on the hill tonight and he is 10-4 in 22 career starts against the Marlins with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.040 WHIP. He has allowed three or fewer ER in all but two of those 22 starts and allowed 6 ER in three starts spanning 18 innings. In 32 starts this season, Wheeler has posted a 13-6 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP including 212 strikeouts, just 39 BB over 192 inning of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.65 ERA and a 1.118 ERA with 16 K’s and 4 BB spanning 17 innings.

Wheeler has a great fastball that he can vary between a 97 MPH with late-breaking arm side movement that rides onto the hands of a RH batter to a fastball with heavy sinking action that averages 95 to 98 MPH. That pair of fastballs account for 62% of his pitches and then throws a knee buckling slider that averages 90 MPH and a curve that averages 81 MPH. His spins rates are quite high and among the best in MLB with FB averaging 2500 RPM, slider 2675 RPM, and the curve an amazing 2750 RPM. The high spin rates make the ball ‘tight’ and nearly impossible for the batters to identify which pitch he has thrown.

Jesus Lazardo takes the ball for game 1 and has average to below average spin rates and is facing one of the best and hardest hitting lineups in the NL. The Phillies have 8 batters averaging 42% and higher hard hit ball percentages and 7 of them are starters led by Kyle Schwarber, who is averaging 49% hard hit with a 92.4 average exit velocity.

Here are a few Player Props and I do not recommend more than 1-unit on these throughout the playoffs.

Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel

Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM

Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM

Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

8-Unit best bet on the on the Blue Jays using the money line

Game 1 of the MLB Wild Card playoffs are set and this is game 1 between the Blue Jays and the Twins set to take place at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN with the first pitch scheduled for 4:30 PM EST. This game is televised on ESPN.

In the Wild Card round, betting on teams that are priced between a -130 favorite and +130 underdog that won more games than their foe during the regular season has earned an outstanding 27-7 for 79% averaging a -102 money line and earning a highly profitable 60% ROI over the last 20 seasons when there were three game series.

Kevin Gausman is penciled in for the Blue Jays and is coming off another solid season going 12-9 in 31 starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP including 237 strikeouts spanning 185 innings of work. Over his last three starts he posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.302 WHIP including 20 strikeouts and 17 2/3 innings of work. He made 15 starts and went 5-3 with a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP including 116 strikeouts over 90 2/3 innings of work.

Pablo Lopez will on the hill for the Twins and he has posted weak number recently with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.305 WHIP including 21 strikeouts over his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings of work.

Currently 72% of the tickets, but just 49% of the money is being bet on the Twins and this reflects larger bets being made on the Blue Jays. Twins are 7-17 on the money line in games with a posted total of 7 or 7.5 runs this season.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

9:45 PM EST, September 26, 2023

8-Unit best bet on the Giants using the money line.

Betting on home teams that have averaged fewer than 2.5 extra-base hits over their last 15 games and now facing a foe that has batted 0.300 or better over their last five games has produced an 87-56 record for 61% winning bets averaging a +115 underdog and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves

7:20 PM EST, Tuesday 9/26

8-Unit Best Bet on the Braves using the money line

Consider betting 2.5 units on the run line and then 5.5 units on the money line.

The Braves clinched the NL East division title for 6th consecutive year, and it does feel like it was accomplished months ago. They are still competing for the top seed in the playoffs and home field advantage throughout over the Dodgers. So, you do not have to be concerned about them mailing this one in on Tuesday.

Betting on favorites between -140 and -195 using the money line that is scoring at least 4.5 RPG, is averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game, and facing a NL foe starting a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 33-11 record good for 73% winning bets averaging a -158 wager and earning a 30% ROI over the past 15 seasons.

Justin Steele will be on the hill for the Cubs and is not in good form especially having to face by far the best offense in baseball. He has posted a 4.31 ERA and a 1.437 WHIP including 2 walks and 17 strikeouts over his last three starts. Bryce Elder has not lost a start since August 15 and he is 12-4 in 30 starts with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season.

Tampa Bay vs Boston

7:10 PM EST, September 26, 2023

8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the money line.

The AL divisional race has been a great one, but now the Rays are 2.5 games back with just 5 games remaining on the schedule for the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, who have six games remaining. Realistically, the Rays are not going to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays, who they face in the final 3-games of the season. The Blue Jays are in the neck-to-neck race for the wire with the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners. I believe you will see the Rays get their starting pitching set for their first-round matchup against the Minnesota Twins.

This two-games series marks the final home games at Fenway Park, which will be sold out. The Red Sox have had a successful season despite not making into the postseason. Remember, they were not expected to win more than 70 games and sentiment was more focused on if they would lose 100 or more games. They certainly overachieved and the fans will up for fan appreciation celebrations in these two games.

Betting on teams that are on an excellent fielding streak that have gone 10 consecutive games committing no more than a single error in any of them and has a well-rested bullpen that has thrown three or fewer inning over their last two games has earned a 69-42 record. If our home team is priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 dog, their record improves to 17-6 averaging a 45% ROI and 45% Roi over the past five seasons.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
9:40 EST

8-Unit best bet on the Astros using the money line

What a great finish we have going on in MLB and the AL West is certainly center stage with three teams competing for divisional crowns and wild card berths not to mention their playoff lives. The Mariners really were not liked by the schedulers having to play the Rangers in Arlington over the weekend and they, as I had predicted, lost all of the games. Tie-breakers will come to the forefront this week as well.

Check out this betting algorithm that has produced a terrific 44-19 record good for 70% winning bets averaging a +121 underdog and earning a 48% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are facing a team fresh off a three-game losing sweep to a divisional foe and has won between 50 and 55% of their games on the season. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record for these road teams improves to 19-12 averaging a +133 wager and earning a 38% ROI. If the occurs in the month of September has produced a sensational 11-5 record averaging a +129 wager and earning a 58% ROI.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

8-Unit best bet on the Phillies using the money line

Friday

With everything going on with College (17-6 ATS 74% winning bets) and NFL Football (8-4-1 ATS 67% winning bets) these MLB reports will be brief, but still model identified and the same strength as any other MLB best bet.

Betting on home teams that are batting 0.220 or lower over their last 7 games and is starting a pitcher that allowed 5 or more runs including unearned runs in each of his last two starts has produced an exceptional 42-19 record for 69% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 44% ROI in games played over the past five seasons.

Former Met Taijuan Walker will be on the hill for the Phillies and has struggled of late posting a 7.27 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP, but has still averaged 5.8 innings per starts. He did allow 5 and 6 runs in this previous two starts, but is projected to bounce back with quality start tonight. Tylor Megill starts tonight and he has gotten hammered on road over 11 starts with a 7.08 ERA and a 2.085 WHIP averaging just 4.3 innings per road start. Phillies should get to him with multiple run innings and win the game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

10-Unit best bet on the Phillies boxed with Wheeler on the money line

Monday, September 18, 2023

The Braves will try to bounce back after being swept over the weekend, but it is uncertain whether MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. will be in the lineup when Atlanta hosts the Philadelphia Phillies for three games beginning Monday night.

The slugging right fielder left Friday's game early with right calf tightness and did not play Saturday or Sunday. He will work out on Monday and have his availability determined at that time. Acuna is batting .337 with 37 homers, 98 RBIs and 66 stolen bases this season. This opportunity is with Acuna playing, so it gets better if he is scratched.

The Braves (96-53) were swept in Miami over the weekend, the first time they've lost a series to an intra-division opponent since April 2021. Philadelphia (81-68) took two of three at St. Louis, dropping Sunday's series finale 6-5. The Braves were guaranteed a first-round playoff bye on Sunday when Milwaukee lost to Washington. Philadelphia has a three-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for the first NL wild-card spot. So, the Phillies certainly have an edge form a motivational standpoint as they are still being chased for the top wild card berth and the right to host the wild card 3-game playoff round.

Betting on winning record road teams facing another winning record divisional foe, who is coming off a three-game sweep to a divisional foe have gone 35-24 SU averaging a +105 wager and earning an outstanding 22% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. The +1.5 run line bet if available for the road team has earned a 26-87 record averaging a _150 bet and making a 35%Roi in games bet over the past five seasons.

NY Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Friday, 6:35 PM EST, September 15, 2023

8-Unit best bet on the Pirates using the money line, currently priced at +120 and is a valid bet to the Pirates being a -110 favorite.

The Betting Angles Supporting the Pirates

Yankees are 9-17 averaging a _142 favorite and earning a dismal -44% ROI when facing a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower on the season in games played after the break over the past two seasons. Pirates are 25-24 averaging a +145 wager and earning a 24% ROI when facing a team that is averaging 1.25 or more HR per game this season and if at home 10-7 averaging a +132 wager and earning a 37% ROI this season.

The Yankees may hit alot of home runs, but they do not hit well in situations with men on base and opportunities to score runs. Over the past seven games they have batted just 0.176 and scoring an average of 3.1 RPG. For the season, it is truly hard to believe this team with their 330MM+ payroll is scoring an average of 4.2 RPG and batting 0.225 with a horrid 0.298 on-base-percentage. They rank 29th of the 32 teams in the league in OBP and are ahead of the cellar dwelling Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Chicago White Sox.

Gerrit Cole will be on the mound and he has been one of the bright lights in an otherwise horrid Yankee seasons. He is 13-4 in 30 starts with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.027 EWHIP including 45 walks and 204 strikeouts spanning 187 inning of work. He has posted a 1.42 ERA and a o.895 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 19 innings of work. However, the Yankees bullpen is a mess of late and even if the Pirates trail when Cole is brought out of the game, they will still have a chance to win the game.

The PIrates will hand the ball to Johan Oviedo, who is making his 30th start and is 8-14 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP spanning 161 2/3 innings of work. He is pitching his best baseball right now posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. He has an electric fastball that averages 96 MPH with late arm-side tailing action. The Yankees are not a disciplined hitting team and this is the type of pitch that gets them out and produces weakly hit ground balls and strikeouts. His slider, though, may be his best pitch and averages an above average 88 MPH, but again has tremendous movement with many of these pitches being whiffed at and out of the strike zone.

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros
Friday, September 8, 2023
10-Unit best bet on the Astros using the money line.

Consider betting 8-Unit son the money line and 2-Units on the -1.5 run-line

Betting on home teams that are in an inter-league matchup and coming off a three-game series sweep of a divisional foe has earned a 46-12 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 47% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record has been an impressive 14-3 averaging a -138 wager and earning a 49% ROI over the past five seasons. Plus, a near-perfect 7-1 if facing a losing record foe. This algo has gone a quite impressive 10-2 averaging -116 wager and earning a 55% ROI this season.

The Astros, set to host the San Diego Padres in a three-game interleague series starting Friday, outscored Texas 39-10 and hit 16 home runs during the series while gaining sole possession of first place in the AL West Division for the first time this season spanning 141 games or with just 21 games remaining on the season.

Cy Young contender and left-hander Blake Snell, who is 12-9 with a 2.50 has the starting assignment for the Padres on Friday. Snell leads the NL in ERA, opponent batting average (.191) and opponent OPS (.611), and ranks second in both whiffs percentage (37.0) and strikeouts (201). However, he also has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors.

Snell is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA over seven career starts against the Astros. In his last appearance against Houston on May 30, 2021, Snell surrendered seven runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts over three innings in a 7-4 road loss. Despite being more than two years removed from facing the Astros the memories of facing them are not good and the Astros bats are scorching hot.

Since 2007, there have been only three other teams to have hit 15 home runs in a three-game span. In 2019, the Yankees did it and won their next game 12-6. IN 2019, the Nationals did it and lost the next game 4-1. In 2020, the Blue Jays did it and won the next game 7-2 and also in 2020, the Yankees did it and won the next game 6-5. So, overall, teams that have hit 15 or more home runs in a three game span are 3-1.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers

8-Unit best bet on the Rangers using the money line

I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play.

Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI.

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds
8-Unit best bet on the Reds using the money line.

I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play.

Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the money line

I suggest making a 6-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 2-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play.

Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 43-49 record for 47% winning bets, but by averaging a 147 underdog wager has earned a solid 15% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break, the record has been 20-18 for 53% winners averaging a 147 wager and earning a 30% ROI.

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs

8-Unit best bet on the Cubs using the money line

I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for the Giants to score first or retake the lead during the first 3 innings of action and then bet 1-unit on the Cubs using the money line.

After winning Game of their four-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres, the Giants lost the next three games scoring just 4 runs and getting shutout yesterday. The Cubs have won 8 of 12 games and are coming off a four-game split to their division-rival Cincinnati Reds.

The Phillies enjoy a 5.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, while the Cubs are currently in the second slot. Then there is a big-time log jam with the Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Reds in a dead heat for the third and final wild card berth. The key info to know is that the Giants own most of the tie-breakers and the Diamondbacks do not.

Betting on teams that have won 51 to 55% of their games that are facing a foe that is on a 3-game losing streak having lost each of those games to a divisional foe has gone 11-2 for 85% averaging a -141 wager and earning a 45% ROI since 2019. If our team is the home favorite, then our team has gone a near-perfect 8-1 averaging a -127 wager and earning a 65% ROI.

Thursday – Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers

10-Unit best bet on the Dodgers using the money line

I recommend betting this game with 8-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add the remaining two-unit amount if the Braves to score first, which they are quite good at doing this season, or retake the lead at some point over the first three innings of action.

The Braves own the major leagues' best record at 87-45 averaging a -181 wager and earning a 7% ROI, with the Dodgers second best at 83-49 averaging a -162 wager and earning a 6% ROI and closing fast with 24 victories in 28 games this month. The August success has given Los Angeles its third most wins in a single month in franchise history. With another victory on Thursday, the Dodgers would tie their single-month high accomplished in June 1947 and August 1953. This is certainly a potential preview of the NLCS, but the Philadelphia Phillies are playing spectacular baseball in their own right.

Betting on any team that is averaging 5.0 or more RPG and has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games and facing a NL foe with a strong starter with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 158-109 record good for 59% and earning a respectable 9% ROI. If the game takes place after the all start break the record improves to 62-30 for 67% winning bets and earns a 24% ROI. If our team is the dog, the record is 12-12, but averaging a +140 wager produces an exceptional 26% ROI and if they are a home dog, a perfect 3-0.

Betting on home dogs using the +1.5-run line that are facing a foe that is batting 0.290 or better over their previous 20 games has earned a 103-57 mark good for 64% winning bets over the past seven seasons. If our dog is priced at no higher than 150 on the money line, the run line record has gone 75-32 for 70% winning bets earning a highly profitable 27% ROI over the past seven seasons. I mention this as an alternative in-game bet to take the +1.5 run line if the Braves score first.

In only one other occasion this season has the Dodgers been priced as a home dog. Home dogs that are in a matchup where both they and their foe have won at least 60% of their games on the season and the game occurring after the all-star break has earned a 13-11 record for 54%, Averaging a 121 wager and earning a 19% ROI.

Thursday – Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins
10-Unit best bet on the Texas Rangers

Betting on teams priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that are facing an excellent starter that has posted an ERA of 0.00 over his previous three starts has earned a 22-6 record averaging a +111 wager and earning an outstanding 49% ROI since 2016. Yes, that is a great contrarian betting system and we are getting the Rangers cheap given their recent six game losing streak too.

The Twins bullpen has been a bit unstable recently compiling a 5.87 ERA and a 1.696 WHIP over their previous seven games. Pablo Lopez will have the ball to start the game and has produced amazing numbers with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP, 3-0 record including 22 strikeouts and just three free passes spanning 19 innings of work. He has worked 6 or more innings in each of his last five starts and has not allowed more than 2 ER in six straight starts. His recent excellence somehow works against him and other starters, who have managed to allow zero earned runs over a 3-start span.

Once again, the Twins bullpen imploded Wednesday in an extra-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Twins starter Maeda went 5 innings allowing 3 ER, 2 BB, and 6 Ks. The Twins used four relievers, who allowed a combined 4 ER over 5 innings including two walks and 3 Ks and one home run.

The Rangers will start Andrew Heaney, who is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.781 WHIP over his last three starts. He has recorded 122 strikeouts over 118 innings on the season. He is a traditional three-pitch starter featuring a 4-Seam fastball that is used 58%, an excellent slider, used 24%, and a change used 18% and mostly to left-handed hitters. Despite averaging 92.5 MPH with his fastball, the differential in speed to his slider is an optimal 12 MPH making it difficult for any batter, especially RH ones, to identify the pitch. He averages an excellent 27% whiff percentage on all pitches thrown and the Twins have 7 batters that have chase rates of more than 30%.

Pablo Lopez has above average spin rates, but not as elite as Heaney, who averages an amazing 2500 RPM with his slider. Lopez has excellent late-breaking sinking action with his fastball. However, the Rangers have 6 batters in the lineup that are averaging 90 MPH exit velocities and understand how to lay off a fastball that is heavy and has late movement that ride up the handle of RH batters.

Good luck to us and remember this is a marathon called sports betting. Across all sports and early four years of action, these 10-UNIT best bets have done remarkably well with a 55-26 mark for 68% winners or looked inversely, produces 32% losers. It’s the composite of my best bets that has produced the exceptional profits over my 28-year career and not a single best bet opportunity.

Boston vs Houston

8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line

Bet 7-unit son the money line and then look to add a 1-unit amount on the +1.5 run line if the Astros score first or take the lead at any point during the first three innings.

James Paxton will be on the hill for the Sox and the left-hander has gone 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.270 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Astros. He is 7-3 in 16 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP including 93 strikeouts and 23 walks over 86 1/3 innings of work. He is 6-2 in night starts with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP with 78 strikeouts and 17 walks over 68 1/3 innings of work.

Betting on any winning record team that is facing a foe coming off a three straight losses to a divisional foe priced as favorites and has won 54 to 60% of their games has gone 43-29 for 60% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 15 seasons. If our team is a road dog of any size, they have gone 21-7 for 75% winners averaging a +135 wager and earning a 57% ROI over the past 15 seasons.

Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Angels
8-Unit Best Bet on the Angels using the money line, currently priced as -110 favorites using the money line.

Betting on home favorites up to -125 using the money line that have lost five straight games to the current foe has produced a 31-19 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 20 seasons. The Angels have lost five straight games to the Rays with the last win taking place May 10 of the 2022 season. That win was 12-0.

The Rays will start Erasmo Ramirez, who is making his second start and will be kept on a short leash. He went three innings in his first start. The Rays bullpen is a mess currently and have posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.588 WHIP over their past seven games. So, this is an excellent situation for the Angels to bounce back with significant offensive output.

Friday – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
8-Unit best bet on the Mariners using the money line.

Start Time is 8:10 PM EST.

Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the money line and then look for the Astros to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action.

Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 4.5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 50-54 record for 48% winning bets, but by averaging a 147-underdog wager has earned a solid 18% ROI over the past five seasons. If ther game occurs after the all-star break, these road dogs have gone 19-17 for 53% an has earned a 30.4% ROI over the past five seasons.

Julio Rodriguez is hotter than the surface of the sun and he has led the Mariners, 5-2 with a plus-16 run differential against Houston this season, with their torrid play with a 6-4 road victory over the Kansas City Royals on Thursday. Seattle has won six consecutive road series and seven of eight series overall and closed to within 3 1/2 games of the Astros in pursuit of one of two American League wild-card bids.

The Mariners center fielder Rodriguez was moved into the leadoff spot and during that seven-game span, Rodriguez is batting .417 with 16 RBIs, including a 5-for-5 effort in the series finale with the Royals that included five RBIs and a go-ahead, three-run home run in the eighth inning. Rodriguez went 12-for-21 with 11 RBIs in the four-game series.

Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians.

The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game.


Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011. 


Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line.

Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians.

The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game.


Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011.


Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line.

Kansas City vs NY Mets

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets
(This play has been upgraded to an 8-Unit from the 5-Unit play released yesterday)

8-UNIT BEST BET on the Kansas City Royals using the money line.I recommend placing 85% of your normal bet size on the Royals pre flop (before the game starts) and then add the remaining 15% at any point over the first three innings that the Royals are trailing. This means adding at that moment, not when the ½ inning concludes, that the Mets take the lead in the first three innings.

Betting on teams that are coming off a three-game sweep against a divisional foe and now playing in an inter-league game have gone a quite impressive 46-11 averaging a +105 wager and earning a 52% ROI over the last five seasons. 
Betting on all underdogs of +140 or more that is starting a pitcher in poor form sporting an ERA of 7 or higher over his last five starts and taking on a foe that is allowing an average of just 4.5 or more RPG has earned a solid 45-35 record averaging a +171 wager and earning a 35% ROI over the last five seasons.

The veteran and seemingly ageless Zack Greinke will be on the hill for the Royals tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Cubs using the money line.

Let’s get right into the numbers. The following betting also has produced a 92-41 record averaging a -161 wager and earning a solid 21% ROI in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements to get a qualified betting opportunity are to bet on home favorites in the month of August that are facing a divisional foe and with that foe starting a pitcher with a solid season-to-date WHIP of 1.25 or lower. 


If our foe has a winning record the system record soars to a remarkable 29-11 averaging a -153 wager and earning a 24% ROI.

Despite the large number of injuries to the Dodger’s pitching staff, they are taking control of the NL West Division race. They are 17 games over .500 with a 57-40 record and have stretched their division-leading lead to four games over the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers have won 69% of their games played in July ranking third-best behind the surging Boston Red Sox (73%) and Milwaukee Brewers (71%). Even more impressive is that the Dodgers have won road series against the first-place Baltimore Orioles and now the first-place Texas Rangers that concludes a 9-game road trip today.

The Dodgers starting rotation includes names no one expected to see lumped together this season. Bobby Miller started Saturday’s 16-3 blowout win over the Rangers and completed six innings allowing three earned runs for a quality start. In 10 starts, Miller is 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA allowing 49 hits, 16 walks, and striking out 53 batters spanning 54 2/3 innings of work.

Sunday’s starter is scheduled to be Emmet Sheehan, who is 3-0 in five starts with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP including 11 walks and 18 strikeouts spanning 25 2/3 innings of work. He has a 95 MPH fastball, 87 MPH slider, and a 82 MPH changeup used against left-handed batters. He throws the fastball 65% of all pitches and you can expect the Rangers lineup to be looking at attacking that first pitch offering.

Sheehan may get into trouble early, but the Dodgers bullpen has been expectational posting a 1.03 ERA and a 0.949 WHIP spanning 26 1/3 innings of work over their last seven games. Their best relievers are all available today having needed none of them in yesterday’s blowout win.

The Rangers will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill to make his 19th start of the season. He has posted a mediocre 4.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP with 36 walks and 62 strikeouts spanning 96 2/3 innings of work. However, he has struggled in his three most recent starts posting an 8.03 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP including eight walks and just six strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings of work. He will be making his ninth day start of the season and has posted a terrible 7.54 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP with 15 walks and 19 strikeouts over 37 innings of work.

The Rangers and Dodgers rank first and second respective in scoring offense at 5.78 RPG and 5.71 RPG on the season. Both starters may not even make it into the fifth inning and for that reason I like the Dodgers will the monumentally better bullpen in this matchup.

A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System

The following situational betting system has earned a 43-30 record for 59% winning bets that have averaged a +118 wager for a 24% ROI in bets made over the past five seasons. The requirements are to be on NL road teams that are averaging at least 4.5 RPG on the season and facing a foe from the AL that is scoring at least 5.4 RPG. Drilling down a bit further, if the game is the last game of the series, the road teams have gone 16-10 for 62% winning tickets averaging a +114 wager and earning highly profitable 28% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.

Player Prop Bets

Bet Under Martin Perez 1.5 outs records -115 at BetMGM

Bet Martin Perez Over 2.5 walks allowed +127 at Caesars

Bet Max Muncy to hit a home run +310 at PointsBet

Bet Chris Taylor Over 0.5 RBI +195 at BetMGM

10-UNIT Best Bet on the San Diego Padres using the money line when take on the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday.

Let’s get right to the powerful and highly profitable analytics that support this 10-Unit play produced by the predictive models. Betting on a NL team in an inter-league matchup that has a starter on the hill has made six consecutive quality starts and is priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog has earned a solid 30-23 record (57%) averaging a -103 wager and earning a 14% ROI over the past 18 seasons. If our NL team is on a tow or more-game losing streak (padres are on a current 3-game losing streak) the record soars to 9-3 for 75% averaging a +104 dog and earning a 54% ROI. If our team is on the road no matter what the pricing is in the market, our teams has gone an amazing 11-1 averaging a +115 wager and earning a highly profitable 92% ROI.

Betting on any team that is starting a pitcher in excellent form posting a WHIP of lower than 1.000 spanning his last five starts and taking on a foe that has batted 0.350 or better over their last three games has earned a 21-11 record (66%) averaging a -120 wager and earning a solid 17% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game is played after the all-star break the record improves to a quite impressive 9-2 (82%) averaging a -125 wager and earning a 44% ROI over the past five seasons.

Joe Musgrove has been one of the best starters in baseball especially over the past several weeks. Since May 26, Musgrove has gone 7-0 in nine starts, allowing just 11 earned runs, two home runs, 8 walks, and 54 strikeouts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1.42 ERA and a 0.789 WHIP including two walks and 24 strikeouts spanning 19 innings of work. His spin rates for all his pitches are at elite levels, which makes it nearly impossible for any hitter to identify the pitch thrown. He ranks second among starters that have had a minimum of 200 batted ball events with a 30.5% hard-hit percentage, 4th with a 10.9% swing percentage, third allowing just 68 batters to hit the ball with an exit velocity of 95 or more-MPH, and second posting a 90% fly ball to line drive ratio.

The Blue Jays will have Alek Manoah on the hill and he is not in good form by an type of analysis sporting a 7.84 ERA and a 1.839 WHIP spanning just 10 1/3 innings of work. However, he is coming off his first start since June 5 in which he wen t six innings allowing an earned run  on five hits with eight strikeouts. Despite this solid outing, he is not at Musgrove’s elite level of pitching and the Padres bats are expected to get to him early and often. Manoah is 4-9 losing 11 units on the money line in home games when the total has been between 8.5 and 10 runs in starts made over the past two seasons.

10-Unit best bet on the Baltimore Orioles using the money line when take on the New York Yankees Thursday with the first pitch set for 7:05 PM EST. Despite playing in the early evening, the weather temps will be just off the highs of the days in the region.
I like playing this 10-Unit best bet using 7.5-units or 75% of your 10-Unit betting amount on the money line preflop and then look to add 25% more using the money line if the Yankees score first during the first three innings only. Also, make that second bet if it presents itself at the end of the inning given that the Yankees are the home team.

The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the hill and he is coming off a dreadful start allowing 9 runs, 7 ER including two home runs in just four innings of work in an 11-4 loss to the last place St. Louis Cardinals. Moreover, Severino is just 10-25 losing 17 units per unit wagered in games where he has been priced between a 125 dog and 125 favorite. None of the stat cast measures have been favorable for Severino this season. He has walked 9.5% of the batters faced while striking out just 18%. Batters have averaged a 90.5 MPH exit velocity on batted balls in play and 46% of them have been measured as hard-hit types. Last, he is getting just 20% whiffs on all his pitches throws.

The Orioles will have Kyle Bradish on the hill and he has excellent control of all pitches and can throw fastball, sinker, slider, and curve balls at any point during an at-bat. In fact, he uses the slider the most at 30% of pitches thrown. His curve has elite spin rates and makes it impossible for any hitter to identify and the result is that 23% of pitches thrown to right-handed batters seen chasing it out of the strike zone.

He is coming off an excellent start against the Minnesota Twins and completed six innings allowing one ER on seven hits with one walks and seven strikeouts on 94 pitches. Despite being a RH starter, he threw 11 curve balls to LH batters and not one batter made contact. His average spin rate was 2675 RPM, which is truly elite at the MLB level.

So, betting on road teams (Orioles) in the second half of the regular season that have won two or fewer of their last 8 games, in a matchup of winning record teams and are favored between -100 and -140 using the money line has earned a highly profitable 11-5 record fort 69% averaging a -111 wager and earning a highly profitable 33% ROI.

The Orioles are 7-3 earning a 35% ROI coming off a game in which they scored in only two innings, but both innings were multiple-run innings. From my predictive models, the Orioles are 8-0 averaging a -140 wager as a road favorite and had two or more multiple run innings.

8-Unit best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies using the money line when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays  
The Phillies are on a league-high 10-game road winning streak and will look to extend that streak with one of the hottest starters in all of MLB on the hill. Taijuan Walker has come into top form. In the six starts made in June, Walker posted a 5-1 record with a 1.50 ERA, allowing six runs, allowing 22 hits and two home runs while striking out 34 batters in 36 innings of work. 
Moreover, the Phillies bullpen has been outstanding posting a 0.00 ERA and 0.571 WHIP over their previous seven games.
The Phillies offense is batting 0.276 and scoring 6.1 RPG over their previous seven games. 
Betting on NL road teams that are scoring 4.5 or more RPG and facing a host from the AL that is scoring 5.4 or more RPG has gone 38-28 for 68% averaging a +117 wager and earning a highly profitable 23% ROI over the past five seasons.

10-Unit Best Bet on the Cleveland Guardians using the money line as they take on the Kansas City Royals. Betting AGAINST home teams priced between a 125 and 150 underdog who is facing a foe that has batted .270 or better over their previous 20 games and whose bullpen did not allow a run in their previous game have gone 17-2 for 90% winners since 2004. They have averaged a -152 bet and have earned a highly profitable 65% ROI. An extremely rare situation, but one that has done remarkably well for 20 seasons. 

Cleveland ranks in the middle of the pile of 30 MLB teams per my power ratings. Their opponent, though, ranks near dead last or last in many of my performance measures. The Royals rank 29th winning just 28% of their games, 28th scoring 3.78 RPG, 25th averaging 12.71 total bases per game, and 28th with a –122 run differential. What IU truly like about the Guardians is that despite being dead last in home runs averaging 0.65 per game, the rank 7th averaging 1.82 doubles per game. Doubles have become the most important extra-base-hit and not only put a man in an immediate scoring position but optimize multiple run-scoring innings too. The Guardian bats are hitting 0.286 and scoring 5.3 RPG over their last seven games. Royals batters are hitting just 0.230 and scoring 3.7 RPG when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 
 
The biggest difference between these teams is pitching where the Guardians rank 9th with a 3.84 ERA and the Royals a distant 28th with a lofty and quite awful 5.21 ERA for the season. The Guardians staff ranks 6th allowing just 1.01 home runs per game.  
 
The Royals are just 13-42 when facing a solid bullpen with a WIP of 1.45 or lower in games played this season. They are also 17-42 when playing in a game with a total of between 8.5 and 10 runs.  

NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line
1-unit bet that Kyle Schwarber will hit a home run

This betting opportunity is reinforced by a gross mismatch of starting pitchers, The Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the hill to make his 10th start and he has posted a 6.34 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP including 21 walks and 28 strikeouts in only 44 innings of work. This will be his sixth day start of the season and in his previous five days starts he has posted a horrid 8.43 ERA and a 1.828 WHIP with more walks (14) than strikeouts (13).

Even though the Phillies have a higher-than-average chase rate of pitches thrown out of the strike zone you can be sure that they will be selective on every first pitch delivery. For instance, right-handed batters will be shrinking the strike zone to only pitches that are thrown middle-in to them. That location is the best hot zone for RH batters. For left-handed batters like Kye Schwarber any pitch throw over the inner third and just above the knees is going to hit with an exit velocity around 110 MPH. Moreover, Schwarber has a great batting eye as evidenced by his 0.323 OBP percentage.

Zack Wheeler will be on the hill for the Phillies and he is 6-4 in 15 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP including 20 walks and 98 strikeouts spanning 88 innings of work. He has pitched remarkably well over his last three starts posting a remarkable 0.47 ERA and a 0.776 WHIP including four walks and 19 strikeouts spanning 19 1/34 innings of work.

Wheeler is a traditional 3-pitch power starter with an excellent fastball that has late-breaking arm-side movement with heavy sinking action averaging 96 MPH. What makes his fastball one of the best in MLB is that he averages a very tight and high spin rate of 2450 RPM. His slider averages 91 MPH and even higher spin rate at 2550 RPM. Then he will throw a curve with one of the highest spin rates in MLB at 2700 RPM. The spin rates are so high that it makes it nearly impossible for the batter to identify the pitch thrown. If the ‘red dot’ that can be seen on below average curve balls is invisible with Wheeler’s curve ball offerings. Moreover, just 4.5% of all pitches thrown have found the barrel of the bat this season.

Phillies skipper Thomson is 50-18 when facing a team that is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game and 9-3 in the 2023 season.

Minnesota vs Detroit
8-Unit best bet on the Minnesota Twins using the money line to defeat the Detroit Tigers Sunday. The AL Central is a mishmash of five struggling teams with the Twins leading with an even 39-39 record and the only team that has outscored their opponents. Four of the five teams are within six games of each other and will have to decide in the next few weeks if they are going to be buyers or sellers ahead of the trading deadline. The Boston Red Sox are last in the AL East division, but would be leading the AL Central division.

The following betting system has earned an outstanding 120-43 record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Requirements are to be on:
AL favorites between –125 and –175
The favorite has an OBP of 0.320 or lower
The favorite is starting a pitcher who did not walk a batter in his last start
The foe has a solid bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.

10-UNIT Best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds to defeat the Houston Astros using the money line.  
The Reds will start Hunter Greene, who is making his 14th start and has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP including 28 strikeouts over the past three starts spanning 17 1/3 innings of work. He has struck out an amazing 33% of the batters faced using a dominating 99 MPH fastball that has significant arm-side movement. He is a traditional three-pitch power pitcher with an elite 88 MPH slider and 91 MPH changeup. His fastball is extremely tight spinning averaging a 2350 spin rate, which is the same spin rate most starters get on their curve balls – not their fastballs. He works ahead in the count and batters swing 67% of the time on his first pitch offering. Overall, batters have whiffed on 32% of his pitches this season.  
  
Reds skipper Bell is 20-12 making 15 units when facing AL teams allowing fewer than 4 RPG. The Reds are 14-9 for a 29% ROI when facing a left-handed starter this season. They are hammering left-handed starters batting 0.285 with a 0.l354 OBP and scoring 5.4 RPG. The Red's bullpen has come together recently and has posted a 3.29 ERA over their last seven games. Astros are batting just 0.235 with a terrible 0.293 OBP and scoring only 4.1 RPG when facing right-handed starters this season.