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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-12-15	Minnesota v. Ohio State OVER 142	Top	73-79	Win	100	5 h 24 m	Show
25* graded play 'OVER' Ohio State - Minnesota in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 147 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a solid 8-2 OVER (+5.8 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game this season; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Given the inconsistent Minnesota defense , the only hope they have to upset Ohio State is to try and run them off the court. They rank 38th in scoring offense and 34th in assist-to-turnover ratio and matchup well in a high paced game against Ohio State. Now, Ohio State has a strong defense, but has been exposed in running attacks. They do have a very strong offense of their own that can easily match Gopher scoring runs. I expect this to be an up and down game with lots of action. Take the 'over'.
03-04-15	Cincinnati v. Tulsa OVER 118	Top	56-47	Loss	-115	4 h 37 m	Show
25* graded play 'OVER' Tulsa/Cincinnati in C-USA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 120 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 'Over' record good for 76% winners since 1997. Play 'over' with road teams where the total is 119.5 or less (CINCINNATI) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tulsa is a solid 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) in home games when competing against non-pressure defensive teams forcing
01-27-15	Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 136.5	Top	78-82	Loss	-105	8 h 52 m	Show
25* graded play 'UNDER' Colorado State/ Boise State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 11:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 130 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boise State is a perfect 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997; 41-24 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread since 1997. Boise has won and covered four striaght games with the 'over' winning the cash in three of those four games. In thier last game, they shot 58% from the field in a 77-68 win over Air Force. In the second to last game they defeated San Jose State 86-36 and shot 52%. Take the 'UNDER'
01-27-15	Florida v. Alabama UNDER 124.5	Top	52-50	Win	100	6 h 52 m	Show
25* graded play 'UNDER' Florida/Alabama in SEC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 120 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a solid 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) facing good ball handling teams committing
01-27-15	West Virginia v. Kansas State UNDER 137	Top	65-59	Win	100	4 h 53 m	Show
25* graded play 'UNDER' West Virginia/Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 132 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas State is a solid 21-9 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in home games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997; 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Huggins is 24-10 UNDER (+13.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of West Virginia. Weber is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1997. Take the 'under'.
01-26-15	Cleveland State v. Oakland UNDER 137.5	Top	56-59	Win	100	2 h 16 m	Show
25* graded play 'UNDER' Cleveland State/Oakland in Horizon League action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 132 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland State is just 11-3 'UNDER' (+7.7 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last three seasons; 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, they are a solid money making 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) when facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots over the last two seasons; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons. CS runs a mostly three-guard set. Their fourth guard is Andre Yates, who is the team leader in steals (1.80). He is OUT for tonight's game as is Forward Marlin Mason (25 minutes, 8.1 PPG, and 4.6 RPG). That's 52 minutes of playing time that will need to be met by the bench. I don't see any combination of bench players being able to match their contribution. I see this game as a much lower style game and with shooting percentages by both teams under their team averages. Take the 'UNDER'.
12-22-14	Wisconsin Milwaukee v. Arkansas UNDER 141	Top	54-84	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
25* graded play 'UNDER' Wisconsin - Milwaukee (WM)/ Arkansas set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 140 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Arkansas is a solid 22-10 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997; 33-14 UNDER (+17.6 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. WM is a solid 33-18 UNDER (+13.2 Units) in road games facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots since 1997. WM head coach Jeter is 29-13 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in road games facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots; Arkansas HC Anderson is a solid 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Arkansas is off to a strong 8-2 start in large part due to their potent offense. Yet, their defense has been borderline awful in many games. They rank 248th in scoring defense, 215th in shooting percentage allowed, and 279th in FG made allowed. This is an opportunity against a WM team that struggles on the offensive end to tune up the defense. WM ranks a miserable 226th in scoring offense, 214th in assists per game, and 246th in assist-turnover ratio. I expect Arkansas to fully focused on the defensive end, slow the pace of the game knowing they are the superior team. Take the 'UNDER'
04-07-14	Kentucky v. Connecticut UNDER 135.5	Top	54-60	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
10* graded play 'UNDER' in the NCAA Tournament Final featuring Kentucky versus UCONN. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 135 points will be scored in this game. I also like Kentucky as a 5* graded play and believe their freshman starters will rise to an even higher level at both ends of the court. The 'one and done' theme in NCAA hoops is a concern for the health of College Basketball programs and the individual players, whose lives are changed dramatically and suddenly. It certainly is a dream to just imagine what this Kentucky group would be like in 3 years? Reality is that we will never see that unfortunately and who can blame the players when so much money is at stake by entering the NBA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-37 mark for 66.1% winners since 1997. Play 'Under' with neutral court teams against the total (CONNECTICUT) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. UCONN is a perfect 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when facing solid rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games this season. Kentucky is a solid 31-14 UNDER (+15.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons; 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists this season; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season; UCONN is a perfect 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season; 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Ollie is a strong Ollie is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists as the coach of UCONN. Based on the matchups and the SIM projections, this game will be very physical and grinding. I also believe the refs will allow the players to dictate the pace and intensity and not call the 'ticky-tack' type of fouls. There will be fast break scores of course, but both teams will be focused on the defensive end first. Take the 'UNDER'
03-22-14	North Dakota State v. San Diego State UNDER 127	Top	44-63	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on 'UNDER' the posted total in the San Diego State-North Dakota State matchup set to tip at 6:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 120 points will be scored in this game. Most lines are north of 125 listed at 126 1/2 at most books. Both teams will focus on the defensive end and solid execution on the offensive end. I don't see fast break in transition of missed shots being a matchup advantage for either team. There will be a high number of one-and-done possessions by both teams and methodical ball movement on the offensive end. SDST is a solid 17-7 UNDER (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team winning > 80% of their games after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) facing low pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.; 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season; 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when facing solid ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Moreover, SDST is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season; 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. NDST may try and force the tempo early in the game, but is a huge risk should they fail to covert scoring opportunities. This would allow SDST to establish a sizable lead and then the pace of play will slow even more as SDST looks to shorten the game. Take the 'UNDER'
03-12-14	Notre Dame v. Wake Forest OVER 136	Top	69-81	Win	100	1 h 9 m	Show
10* graded play 'OVER' the posted total in the Notre Dame-Wake Forest matchup in the first round of the ACC Tournament set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that 140 or more points will be scored in this game. SIM projects that both teams will have above average shooting percentages. Specifically, one calls for ND to shoot 31 to 37% of their 3-pointers. In past games, ND is a solid 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Wake Forest is 69-33 OVER (+32.7 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. I strongly believe that both teams will score 70+ points in this game. Take the OVER.
02-26-14	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 142	Top	69-74	Loss	-110	8 h 14 m	Show
10* graded play on 'UNDER' Texas-Baylor in Big-12 Conference action set to tip at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 140 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-26 mark for 68% winners since 2008. Play 'Under' with Road teams against the total (BAYLOR) after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more and in a game involving two strong teams winning 60% to 80% of their games. Texas is coming off two very poor games and were hammered by then-No. 8 Kansas this past Saturday. Texas has shot a combined 33% over the last two games. HC, like Barnes, always revert back to defensive fundamentals and using strong defense to help generate offense in transition. The Longhorns are 19-1 when they shoot over 40% and are looking to extend a 7-game home winning streak. Yes, on a side note I like Texas to win this game and I strongly believe it will be a very intense defensive presence that will be the main reason why. I also like the fact that Texas is the third ranked rebounding team in the nation. Baylor ranks 18th in offensive boards, BUT Texas will make sure everyone is boxed out to minimize Baylor's second-chance scoring possessions. Barnes is 32-19 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game as the coach of the Longhorns. Take the 'UNDER'
01-26-14	Harvard v. Dartmouth OVER 127.5	Top	80-50	Win	100	4 h 49 m	Show
10* graded play taking the 'OVER' in the Harvard-Dartmouth Ivy League matchup. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 130 points will be scored in this matchup of 'Ancient Eight' Rivals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a remarkable 18-2 ATS over the past three seasons. 19 of these winning plays went over the total by at least 7 points. Play 'over' with all teams where the total is 129.5 or less (DARTMOUTH) after scoring 60 points or less 3 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less 4 straight games. Dartmouth ahs revenge in their minds today too after losing by 16 points in the first meeting. Playing at home this go around is going to help their offense greatly and they need to open up the offense to have any chance of competing with Harvard. The Crimson have no problems running a faster paced offense. Take the 'over'
04-06-13	Wichita State v. Louisville UNDER 134	Top	68-72	Loss	-110	5 h 42 m	Show
25* graded play UNDER Wichita State/Louisville in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament set to tip at 6:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 130 points will be scored in this game. Game situations show that Louisville is a solid 19-8 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 72-45 UNDER (+22.5 Units) versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points per game after 15+ games since 1997; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after a game with 9 or less assists over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 3 seasons. WS head coach Marshall is a solid 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. It will be a fantastic site to see Kevin Ware standing on crutches on the sidelines of this Final Four Game. However, when this game starts, I strongly believe the defenses will dominate and control the tempo of the game. Both coaches this is not a game where the first team to 80 points wins. There is no reason to force the pace of play by either squad. Wichita will certainly want a slower pace to the game being a double digit dog and look to have a chance to win the game in the final 10 minutes. Louisville ranks 14th allowing 58.1 PPG, 25th allowing 10.1 assists per game and first with a 0.546 assist-to-turnover ratio. WS ranks 38th allowing 60.9 PPG, 39th allowing 10.5 assists per game, and 27th allowing opponents a 39.3% shooting percentage. Take the UNDER
03-29-13	Michigan v. Kansas OVER 135.5	Top	87-85	Win	100	9 h 53 m	Show
25* graded play
03-24-13	Temple v. Indiana UNDER 148	Top	52-58	Win	100	4 h 12 m	Show
30* graded play on UNDER Indiana-Temple in a Third Round Matchup set to tip at 2:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 145 points will be scored. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a
03-19-13	Middle Tennessee St v. Saint Marys CA OVER 132	Top	54-67	Loss	-108	13 h 4 m	Show
25* graded play
02-27-13	St. Josephs v. St. Louis UNDER 126.5	Top	53-70	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
25* graded play UNDER St. Josephs - St. Louis in A-10 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 124 points will be scored in this game. This games projects to be more in the 110 to 115 point range. When first looking at this game, I believed that St. Jose might be able to execute a faster style of game that would favor their efforts for a major upset. However, St. Louis has a ton on the table right now at risk and they must play solid team basketball at both ends of the court. This means that St. Louis will be looking to use superior ball movement to get the best shot with each possession. St. Jose does have the defense to contain St. Louis. The SIM confirms this as it projects that STL will hit between 40 and 46% of their shots. In past games, they are 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in home games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. SlT is also off a huge upset at Butler defeating them 65-61 installed as a 2
11-09-12	Maryland Terrapins v. Kentucky OVER 134.5	Top	69-72	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
25* graded play OVER Maryland-Kentucky in College Hoops set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game will be played at the new Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York . The simulator shows a high probability that 138 or more points will be scored in this game and a modestly less probability that both teams will score 70 or more points. Kentucky lost more than just their starting five. They lost six players from last year
03-29-12	Stanford v. Minnesota UNDER 131.5	Top	75-51	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
30* graded play
03-27-12	Minnesota v. Washington OVER 143	Top	68-67	Loss	-108	13 h 36 m	Show
25* graded play
03-25-12	Baylor v. Kentucky UNDER 148	Top	70-82	Loss	-110	3 h 25 m	Show
30* graded play
03-23-12	Indiana v. Kentucky OVER 144	Top	90-102	Win	100	14 h 46 m	Show
25* graded play
03-22-12	Wisconsin v. Syracuse OVER 119.5	Top	63-64	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
30* graded play
03-15-12	Long Beach State v. New Mexico OVER 137.5	Top	68-75	Win	100	6 h 46 m	Show
15* graded play taking the
03-02-12	Harvard v. Columbia OVER 117	Top	77-70	Win	100	4 h 31 m	Show
15* graded play

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