50* graded play ‘UNDER’ the posted total in the Notre Dame – North Carolina ACC showdown set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 150 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-28 ‘UNDER’ for 71% winners since 1997. Play ‘Under’ with neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (NOTRE DAME) that are good 3-Point shooting teams making better than 36.5% and is now facing an average 3-Point defense allowing between 32 to 36.5% shooting, good ball handling team forcing less than 14.5 TOPG against an average pressure defensive team forcing between 14.5 and 17.5 TOPG. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

UNC is a solid 8-2 UNDER (+5.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. 

ND is a solid 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. 

Brey is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in road games after playing a game as a home underdog as the coach of ND

25* graded play ‘UNDER” the posted total in the San Antonio (514) Denver matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that there will be fewer than 217 points scored in this game. 

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 mark good for 75% winners since 1996. Play ‘UNDER’ with home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, on Saturday games. Here is a second system that has gone 39-15 ‘under’ good for 72% winners since 2011. Play ‘under’ with home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 

Spurs are 44-29 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Spurs are 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Spurs are 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’.

25* graded play on the ‘UNDER’ in the Clippers-Warriors (507) matchup set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Clippers will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and that there will be fewer than 220 points scored. The play on the Clippers grades as 25* play as well representing a very rare side and total at TITAN grades. So, following is an outline of various combination wagers and parlays you can engage in designed to optimize the opportunity presented here in this matchup.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Clippers are 20-9 UNDER (+10.1 Units) when they attempt 18 to 22 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons.

Warriors are 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) when they make 39% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’ and the Clippers.

So, Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line.

Now, there is a wager that many of you may be familiar with already called a ‘reverse’ parlay. These types of parlays can be very dangerous to your bank account if not used with immense discipline and only in the correct spots. Over time, these situations will generate very nice income, BUT it does not mean that this specific situation will win. Our methods and wagering design are built to sustain profitability over the long-term and not one hyped promotional day. The reverse parlay pays 4:1 and would be comprised in two different manners, BUT not both. The first is a 5* play using the Clippers on the line and the ‘UNDER’ The second that offers even greater return, but with increased losing risk is to wager the Clippers using the money line and the ‘under’. WE highly recommend using the straight reverse using the line as the probability is significantly less than +600 given to the Clippers money line, that the Clippers will win. If you use the combination wager you already benefit from the upset potential and there is truly no reason to stretch the risk to include the reverse parlay wager too.

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ Miami-Milwaukee in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Miami is 29-17 UNDER (+10.3 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons.

Miami is solid 23-11 UNDER (+10.9 Units) when they make 65% to 70% of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons.

Miami is 40-18 UNDER (+20.2 Units) when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons.

Miami is 23-10 UNDER (+12.0 Units) in road games when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons.

Miami is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they score 93 to 98 points in a game this season.

Miami is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER” for this matchup.

25* graded play ‘OVER’ in the OKC-ATL NBA game set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 218 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 99-53 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 2010. Play ‘OVER’ with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ATLANTA) off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record. 

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ Kansas 544 – Nebraska 543 in NCAA action set to start at 3:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 140 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-16 mark ‘UNDER’ for 77% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total after 6 or more consecutive wins and is a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and now playing a marginal winning team sporting a record between 51% to 60%.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Nebraska is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when they make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Kansas is a solid 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons.

25* graded play ‘UNDER” the posted total in the Toronto-LA Lakers NBA game set to start at  7:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 205 points will be scored this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 159-105 over the last 5 seasons good for 60.2% and made a great 43.5 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team (TORONTO) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Under is 20-6 (+13.4 Units) when Lakers are playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 overall. Under is 9-2 in Lakers last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic. The last 2 games played in Toronto in this series have gone under.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Under.

Toronto limits it's opponents to 100 PPG at home. 

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ in the Denver Memphis NBA game set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-7 over the last 5 seasons good for 81.6% winners and made 23.3 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) coming off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog. Another great proven system supports this play posting a 140-76 over the last 5 seasons good for 64.8% winners and made a huge 56.4 units/unit wagered. Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - good ball handling team from last season - committed 14 or less turnovers/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 74-44 UNDER (+25.6 Units) in road games against Southwest division opponents since 1996. Memphis is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 overall. Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 14-6 in Nuggets last 20 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis. Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Memphis scored over 100 points in each of its first three games but is averaging 87.8 over the last four contests. Combining these teams current points per game the total would be 200 points. Denver is an extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. Take the UNDER.

25* graded play ’UNDER’ Brooklyn-Charlotte in set to start at 7:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 126-75 over the last 5 seasons good for 62.7% winners and made a nice 43.5 units/unit wagered. Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHARLOTTE) - good ball handling team from last season - committed under 14 turnovers/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Brooklyn is 56-37 UNDER (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 79-49 UNDER (+25.1 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996. In Brooklyn 2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER the total over the last 3 seasons. Under is 5-0 in Hornets last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 6-1 in Nets last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Fundamental Discussion Points “It all starts on the defensive end for us," Zeller told the team's website after the win over Philadelphia. "We had 15 deflections in the first half and 17 in the third quarter alone. Deflections are a big thing in charting our defensive activity. That’s what we’re going to need moving forward." With this defensive focus and a rash of injuries at the point guard spot for the Nets, they won't reach 200 points total this game. Take the UNDER.

50* graded play ‘UNDER’ Charlotte/Miami in Game 2 of their NBA playoff series set to start at 7:00 PM ET SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored and that both teams will not exceed the century mark. I also have a 25* play on Charlotte as graded by the SIM Algorithm. I also, would suggest making a ‘reverse’ parlay for no more than a 5* play using Charlotte and the ‘OVER’. There are two types of reverse bets. One is called a WIN ONLY and the second is ACTION. In Win Only bets, a loss or push by one of the legs terminates the wager. In ACTION wagers, a push does NOT terminate the wager. It is imperative that you get the ACTION Reverse type of parlay. A reverse action is a set of ‘if-bets’ going both forward and in reverse order. An "If-bet" is a two-part bet where the second part of the bet only has action if the first part wins or pushes.

For example:

a two-team reverse bet on teams A and B would imply two if-bets: if A then B and if B then A. So, if you wager $10 per * unit for my releases, you will receive a 4:1 payout or $200 for a $0 5* wager. If ‘A’ wins, but ‘B’ loses, then you lose $60. If both ‘A’ and ‘B’ lose, you lose $120.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a solid 24-11 UNDER (+11.9 Units) when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) when they grab 53 to 57 rebounds in a game this season. Charlotte is coming off a poor loss and were in deep trouble even before half-time. However, this bodes well for an ‘UNDER’ play noting they are 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Theses are two of the better defensive minded teams in the Eastern Conference. Miami ranks 4th in scoring defense, 2nd in opponent assists per game, 5th in opponent total rebounding, and 6th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. Charlotte ranks 9th in scoring defense, 5th in opponent points form the paint, and are third in opponent offensive rebounding. Both teams will be focused on solid rebounding on their defensive glass serving to minimize second change scoring opportunities. The battle of the paint will be won by Charlotte. Miami ranks 4th best in points scored from the paint, but Charlotte has the physicality and rotate extremely well to offset that strength.

25* graded play ‘OVER’ the posted total in the Boston – Golden State NBA game set to start at 10:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 235 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-18 ‘over’ mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play ‘over’ with road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season, in April games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) off a road loss this season. GS  is 19-9 OVER (+9.1 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons and they are 26-14 OVER (+10.6 Units) after a game where they covered the spread this season. GS is 35-23 OVER (+9.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season and Boston 40-21 OVER (+16.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Warriors needed two overtimes to edge the Celtics back in December, which always looks good for an OVER. Both teams put together this season average over 220. They are ranked #1 and #5 in PPG. In 4th quarters this year these two teams rank second and sixth totaling for more than 52 points. Also, defensively in fourth quarters this year they combine for allowing over 52 points and are ranked a lowly 24th and 27th. In this matchup these two teams will score and allow more points to easily cover the OVER. Pick OVER the total.

25* graded play ‘OVER’ in the MIDWEST Regional Final set to start at 6:05 PM ET SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 125 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 28-7 ‘OVER’ mark good for 80% winners since 1997. 55% of these games went ‘over’ the posted total by seven or more points. Play ‘over’ with neutral court teams against the total (SYRACUSE) after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse is a perfect 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game this season. UVA is a perfect 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in road games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better this season; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more

Fundamental Discussion Points ND shot horridly from the field in their Sweet 16 win against Gonzaga. However, they are 5-1 ‘OVER’ following a game where they shot under 40% this season. The Syracuse zone will not impact UVA’s offense as it can other teams simply because UVA can shoot well from the perimeter. They rank 10th in the nation making 40.3% of their 3-point shot attempts and this will pull the ‘zone’ out from the paint. In turn, this will open up that paint area for UVA where they rank 30th hitting 52.8% of those shots. UVA does not need to play slow-paced lock down defensive style in this matchup. I fully expect them to come up shooting and putting pressure on the Syracuse defense with every possession. Take the ‘OVER’

25* graded play ‘OVER’ Wisconsin-Notre Dame in the SWEET 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 7:25 PM ET, Friday, March 25, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that More than 140 points will be scored in this game. Truly remarkable that these two teams are playing each other in the Round of 16. Wisconsin and Notre Dame are not elite offenses by any stretch of the imagination or the stats. However, their defenses do not match up well against the offenses, as shown below in the fundamental discussion points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-19 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 73% winners: Play Over neutral court teams against the total (ND and Wisc) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is 8-2 OVER (+5.8 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. Brey is 85-62 OVER (+16.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite as the coach of ND. Wisconsin is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points ND ranks 122nd in opponent shooting percentage at 43%, 119th in overall opponent shooting efficiency at 1.050, 264th in FGA/game, 206th in FGM/game, 270th allowing 7.8 3-point shots per game. Wisconsin ranks below 200th level in the majority of offensive metrics, however, the SIM shows that they will have an above average night from beyond the arc. ND does shoot the ball well and are quite disciplined in this style of play. Wisconsin has a decent defense, but here again ND ranks 38th with a 1.139 shooting efficiency, and 28th in 2-point shot percentage at 53%. So, Wisconsin will be successful from the perimeter early and then spread the ND defense opening up the paint. Meanwhile, ND will be the opposite, looking to pound the paint early and then look to wide open shots from the perimeter. Take the ‘OVER’

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ the posted total currently at 145 points in the Maryland-Kansas Sweet 16 matchup set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 138 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is a solid 10-3 UNDER (+6.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game this season; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game this season. This last one begs to show Kansas winning the game comfortably, but the probabilities are too inconsistent to validate an individual play on Kansas. This game projects to be more of an intensive defensive battle, with spurts of offensive brilliance. 

Fundamental Discussion Points As the season ends and the tournament continues on totals are more prone to going UNDER than ever before, but especially in this game with two stout defenses. Players are going to tire as they play more and more games and as the tournament continues they are trying to score over better and more competitive teams. Maryland is 42nd best in the country only allowing opponents 66.4 PPG and Kansas is 61st only giving up 67.7 PPG. Kansas is 15th and Maryland is 31st in opponents effective FG percentage. Maryland turns the heat up as the game goes on ranking 39th in opponents 2nd half points. Also, Maryland is 13th BEST in blocks per game. Pick UNDER the total.

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ Portland-OKC in NBA action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. as they take on set to start at  PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 215 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 under good for 76.3% winners: Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OKC is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game this season. The Thunder are 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season and 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  

Fundamental Discussion Points 4 of 5 games in this series have gone under the total at Oklahoma City over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma City matched its lowest point total Saturday and shot below 40.0 percent. This factors well into an under pick, as does the fact both teams are playing their third game in 3 days. Late in the season and when teams are playing consecutive games they tend to be tired, shoot worse, and score less. Pick the Under.

50* graded play ‘UNDER’ the posted total in the Texas A&M-Kentucky SEC Championship game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 140 points will be scored. In addition, there is a high probability that both teams will not exceed 70 points in scoring.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 77% winners since 1997. Play ‘under’ with neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (KENTUCKY) in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 75 points or more 4 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. A&M is a solid 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 8-2 UNDER (+5.8 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points This is game where the A&M defense is being completely overlooked and a defense that can dominate the pace of play in this matchup. Moreover, Kentucky ranks best in the nation allowing 9.1 assists per game and with a 0.398 opponent assist-turnover ratio. A&M offense moves the ball very well, but will find those passing lanes impacted by the ‘length’ of the Kentucky defense. Both teams playing their third game in as many days and fatigue will be a factor leading to many shots that just don’t have the legs behind them. Take the ‘UNDER’

50* graded play ‘OVER” Kansas-Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 150 points will be scored in this game. I also have a 25* graded play on Oklahoma State so this offers up a very rare wagering opportunity. Always remember, you must be all about discipline and not for one second believing money has been won before it is even wagered at the window. Do not wager more than you have to lose. This should all be about fun, a little excitement, learning, and making a little more cabbage over time. For this play consider making a Reverse Parlay for a 7* amount using Oklahoma State and ‘OVER’ So, 50* amount on the ‘over’, 25* amount Ok State, and optional 7* reverse parlay wager.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-31 mark good for 68% winners since 1997. Play ‘over’ with home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (KANSAS) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season. Supporting the cowboys is a system that has gone 49-17 ATS for 74% winners since 1997. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (KANSAS) after 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’, an explosive offensive team scoring >=76 PPG against an average offensive team scoring 67 to 74 PPG after 15+ games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ok State is a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 56-30 OVER (+23.0 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game; 26-3 OVER (+22.7 Units) when they allow 81 to 86 points in a game; 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when they allow 81 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Kansas is a solid 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) when they score 81 to 86 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) in home games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points  Kansas is one of the best and most efficient scoring offenses in the nation. They rank 19th scoring 81 PPG, 20th in effective FG percentage, 7th in 3-point shooting, 17th in overall shooting efficiency. As a result, this game will be faster paced and will give Ok State solid chances to score in transition as well. Kansas players know they are the better team and know they simply need to score above their season average and make a push toward 100 points. However, this offensive focus, leads to diminished defensive presence and will allow Ok State to keep it close.

25* graded play ‘OVER’ Golden State-Philadelphia in NBA action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 221 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GS is a solid 24-14 OVER (+8.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season; 25-14 OVER (+9.6 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) facing poor ball handling teams committing >=16 turnovers/game this season. Further, GS is a solid 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season; 14-2 OVER (+11.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. GS is the best team in the NBA and perhaps the best regular season team ever to be on the court. They destroyed the second-best NBA team in the Spurs by 30 points and most recently easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks by 20 points. GS is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. The 76ers are 3-3 over their last 6 games and playing significantly better than they had in the beginning of the season. They will not win the game, but they can play a fast paced of game and make this a very entertaining game for the home fans. Take the ‘OVER’

35* graded play ‘UNDER’ Boston-Orlando in NBA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 204 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-9 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Orlando is 26-12 UNDER (+12.8 Units) in road games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 19-8 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in road games when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 30-12 UNDER (+16.8 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Orlando is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take the ‘UNDER’

25* graded play on ‘UNDER’ in the NCAA Hardwood showdown between Louisville and Kentucky set to start at 12:00 PM ET ST.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 135 points will be scored in this game. Neither team is projected to get 70 points and there is a 65% probability that both teams score 65 or fewer. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This play is a ‘total’ so you need access to the ‘adjusted lines’, which have grown in popularity this season. So, if you are able yo get those adjusted lines ALWAYS look to the dog line as it makes no sense from a ROI point to risk greater vig on a higher total line. So, you may see 130/132 for the adjust ‘under’ and a return of +200/+200. Wager a 21* play ‘under’ using the posted total and then add a 4* play using the adjusted total. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Louisville is a very good team and have outscored their opponents by 30 PPG so far this season. However, this is by far the best opponent they have faced to date. Louisville ranks second in the nation in scoring defense. Kentucky is a solid 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in home games facing elite defensive teams allowing

35* graded play ‘OVER’ Oklahoma City/Cleveland in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET and will be televised by TNT. As an added bonus I would play a 7* amount on the first half ‘over’ line and then another 67* play ‘OVER’ for the second half line too. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 210 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-20 ‘OVER’ record good for 71% winners since 1996. Play ‘over’ with home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) average defensive team allowing between 92 and 98 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 98 and 102 PPG, after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OKC is 62-16 OVER (+44.4 Units) when they allow 105 to 109 points in a game; 41-9 OVER (+31.1 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 62-14 OVER (+46.6 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland has been a strong 34-5 OVER (+28.5 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Based on the SIM projections, I feel very confident that both teams will exceed 105 points each. Take the ‘OVER’

25* graded play 'OVER' Chicago/Cleveland in NBA opening night action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows that more than 204 points will be scored and also a slightly less probability that both teams score 100 points each. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bulls are a solid 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons;  18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in home games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Rose and Chicago represent perhaps the biggest threat to Eastern Conference supremacy for Cleveland after the Bulls finished 50-32 last season. They lost in six games to the Cavaliers, getting eliminated by a James-led club for the third time in five seasons and dismissed defensive-oriented coach Tom Thibodeau. Hoiberg, who played for Chicago between 1999-2003, is now the man in charge after a successful stint coaching alma mater Iowa State. He has a long history with Bulls executives John Paxson and Gar Forman, an assistant under Tim Floyd at Iowa State when Hoiberg played there. Iowa State could put up some big numbers and I strongly believe that will translate to the Bulls this season. Not saying they will be the highest scoring team in the NBA, but they should add 5 points per game over the course of the season. One key to this is that he has already made a positive team decision having Joakim Noah NOT starting and coming off the bench. This adds significant depth to the bench and will allow for starter Nikola Mirotic and others to have extended rest in this game and throughout the season. Take the 'OVER' tonight.

25* graded play 'UNDER' in Game 5 of the NBA Finals set to start Sunday at  as they take on the  action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. I have had two winning plays in Game 3 + Game 4 playing the 'under' and for the same reasons they were validated, Game 5 is going to be more of the same. The public was all over the 'over' in Game 4 and I expect the Warriors Game 4 win to porduce an even greater 'over' betting sentiment. With that said, the line I see is 195 and I would not be surprised to see it move to 196 or even higher in the days ahead. Rest will be monumental for the Cavs, but also benefits the Warriors. You could readily see just hot tired the Cavs players were even before the end of the first half. Coach Kerr said it perfectly in the huddle that the Cavs are playing seven and that they will fatigue over the course of the game. It was correct and the 'small' lineup worked to near perfection in Game 4. The fact is that Warriors imposed their will on the Cavs and even a week of rest cannot overcome the vast depth that the Warriors possess. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cavs are 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) facing top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game over the last 2 seasons; 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in home games facing good 3 point shooting teams making >=36% of their attempts in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons; Warriors have been a solid  22-11 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season; 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season. Take the 'UNDER'

25* graded play 'UNDER' Game 4 of the NBA Finals set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  My SIM shows a high probability that fewer than 190 points will be scored in this game. As many of you know, I had the 'UNDER' in Game 3 and for the exact same reasons I have a play on the 'under'. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The media wants you to believe that Cleveland has suddenly found the magic potion to halt the Warriors incredible offensive attack. Yet, Cleveland has been doing this almost the entire season when facing high powered attacks. They have posted a 34-18 UNDER (+14.2 Units) facing defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game this season; 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) in home games facing very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last three seasons; 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) in home games when facing explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Over the course of this season, Cleveland ranks 2nd best allowing 33.3% opponent 3-point shooting, and 9th best in allowed 3-point shots per game. Warriors also have a very good defense presence. They rank best in opponent effective shooting percentage, third in opponent 3-point shooting, best in opponent 2-point shooting, and 5th in opponent 3-point shots made. Soon, the media will state the obvious, that defense wins Championships for one of these teams. Speaking of which, I do think Warriors will win the game and even the series. So, as an optional wager consider making a 10* play on Golden State, but certainly play the 'under' for a 25* play. 

25* graded play on the 'UNDER' in Game 3 of the NBA Finals set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The media is talking about the adjustments that GSW will make on offense in order to get their offense rolling. That this game will be vastly different then in Game 3 with much faster action leading to much higher scoring by both teams. What these 'talking heads' forget is that GSW are arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. Not to mention, Cleveland played incredible defense in Game 2. It was o fluke that Cleveland shot 32% in their win, which was an NBA Finals record. The talk has been that Lebron does not have anyone to share the ball with that can be a trusted scorer. This may be true, but what he does have is players with elite lateral quickness that can fill space and cut off GSW penetration. Now, that the action is in Cleveland I expect an even greater defensive presence by both teams and far more physical play by both teams. Cleveland ranks 3rd best in defending the three point shot this season. This fact was not diminished with the absence of Love from the playing the Center position. Instead, it has been all of the Cavs players including the bench that have done a great job at defending the perimeter. GSW rank best in the NBA with a 46.8% opponent shooting efficiency quotient. best in opponent 2-point shooting, second in 3-point defense, and 3rd best ion overall opponent shooting efficiency. Take the 'UNDER'

50* graded play 'UNDER' in Game 6 of the Wester Conference semifinal between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Houston Rockets set to start at 10:35 PM ET.   I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. When these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the 'UNDER' in this matchup. I also fully expect the Clippers to close the series out with a win tonight. Yet, the projections are just not strong enough to call the ATS cover. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-11 'under' record good for 79% winners since 2009. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) after a win by 10 points or more and is now facing an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 31-8 'under' for 79% winners since 2009. Play 'under' with any team (HOUSTON) after 2 or more consecutive 'overs' and is now facing an opponent after 6 or more consecutive 'overs'. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Further, Houston enters this matchup with a 26-10 UNDER (+15.0 Units) mark facing excellent ball handling teams committing

25* graded play on 'OVER' Chicago Bulls/Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of their first round playoff series set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 190 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chicago is a solid  21-10 OVER (+10.0 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in home games when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game this season;  17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) in home games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) in home games in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season. The Bulls do not play an extremely aggressive style of defense. This is quite evident in their 22nd ranking with a 1.657 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. They also rank 29th forcing just 12.2 turnovers per game and 29th with a 11.2% turnover per possession percentage. Milwaukee is a stout  15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games facing low pressure defensive teams forcing

25* graded play 'UNDER' Portland-Lakers in Western Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that  fewer than 200 points will be scored. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 5-24 record for 68% winners since 1996. Play 'under' with road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PORTLAND) in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams attempting >=82 shots/game after 42+ games and is a hot shooting team 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Lakers are a solid 20-9 UNDER (+10.1 Units) when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season; 34-16 UNDER (+16.4 Units) after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1996. Take the 'UNDER'.

25* graded play 'OVER' Brooklyn-Minnesota in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 200 points will be scored and a significant probability that both teams will exceed the century mark on their own merit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 324-202 ATS mark making 102 units in profits since 1996. Play 'over' with any team (BROOKLYN) in a game involving two poor three point shooting teams making

25* graded play 'OVER' Ohio State - Minnesota in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that more than 147 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a solid 8-2 OVER (+5.8 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game this season;  8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Given the inconsistent Minnesota defense , the only hope they have to upset Ohio State is to try and run them off the court. They rank 38th in scoring offense and 34th in assist-to-turnover ratio and matchup well in a high paced game against Ohio State. Now, Ohio State has a strong defense, but has been exposed in running attacks. They do have a very strong offense of their own that can easily match Gopher scoring runs. I expect this to be an up and down game with lots of action. Take the 'over'. 

25* graded play 'OVER' Golden State/LA Clippers in NBA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that more than 220 points will be scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clippers are a money making  29-5 OVER (+23.5 Units) when they allow 110 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons; Golden State is  18-3 OVER (+14.7 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season; 25-15 OVER (+8.5 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game this season;  22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) when they score 110 or more points in a game this season; 24-7 OVER (+16.3 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. GS ranks first in scoring offense and Clippers second, so it stands to reason this will be an old fashion Western Conference shootout this afternoon on National TV. Although the GS defense is one of the best in the NBA by many measures, I believer the pace of the game will reflect higher scoring than their respective season averages. Clippers rank second-best with a 47% shooting percentage and GS ranks best with a 47.7% shooting percentage. Take the 'OVER'.

25* graded play 'OVER' Tulsa/Cincinnati in C-USA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 120 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-13 'Over' record good for 76% winners since 1997. Play 'over' with road teams where the total is 119.5 or less (CINCINNATI) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tulsa is a solid  7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) in home games when competing against non-pressure defensive teams forcing

25* graded play 'UNDER' Lakers/Portland in NBA action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 195 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-32 'under' mark good for 69% winners since 1996. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA LAKERS) after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games and is a terrible team winning

25* graded play 'OVER' Orlando/Washington in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that these teams will score at least 200 combined points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Magic are 23-10 OVER (+12.0 Units) when they allow 105 to 109 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. Washington is 12-4 OVER (+7.6 Units) when they make 71% to 77% of their free throws in a game this season; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when they score 105 to 109 points in a game this season; 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game this season. There is just no reason for Washington to play a slower than normal tempo and dozens of reasons they will open up the speed gates and run the Magic off the court. Take the 'OVER'. 

25* graded play on the 'OVER' in the Lakers/Knicks game set to start at 2:00 PM ET. On a side note, I like taking the prop bet with Carmelo scoring LESS than the Patriots or Seattle. Since the game is pick, you may be able to get either team or both. I would recommend no more than 1* unit play on the prop.  The simulator shows a high probability that more than 195 points will be scored. This will be a higher than expected scoring game, but I don't think Carmello is going to go wild and score 40. If he would, then the 'over' should win very easily and then for the minimum risk prop bet we would need one of the teams to score big, which I do think is likely to happen. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Lakers are a solid  23-12 OVER (+9.8 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; Knicks are  24-13 OVER (+9.7 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Additionally, the Knicks are a near-perfect  9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record with the game taking place in the second half of the season in game splayed over the last two seasons. Lakers are a solid 21-10 OVER (+10.0 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.  Take the 'OVER' 

25* graded play 'UNDER' Colorado State/ Boise State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 11:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 130 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boise State is a perfect 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997; 41-24 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread since 1997. Boise has won and covered four striaght games with the 'over' winning the cash in three of those four games. In thier last game, they shot 58% from the field in a 77-68 win over Air Force. In the second to last game they defeated San Jose State 86-36 and shot 52%. Take the 'UNDER' 

25* graded play 'UNDER' Florida/Alabama in SEC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 120 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a solid 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) facing good ball handling teams committing

25* graded play 'UNDER' West Virginia/Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 132 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas State is a solid  21-9 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in home games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997;  18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons;  13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Huggins is 24-10 UNDER (+13.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of West Virginia. Weber is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1997. Take the 'under'.

25* graded play 'UNDER' Cleveland State/Oakland in Horizon League action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 132 points will be scored in this game.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland State is just  11-3 'UNDER' (+7.7 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last three seasons; 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, they are a solid money making 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) when facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots over the last two seasons; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons. CS runs a mostly three-guard set. Their fourth guard is Andre Yates, who is the team leader in steals (1.80). He is OUT for tonight's game as is Forward Marlin Mason (25 minutes, 8.1 PPG, and 4.6 RPG). That's 52 minutes of playing time that will need to be met by the bench. I don't see any combination of bench players being able to match their contribution. I see this game as a much lower style game and with shooting percentages by both teams under their team averages. Take the 'UNDER'. 

25* graded play 'UNDER' Wisconsin - Milwaukee (WM)/ Arkansas set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 140 points will be scored in this matchup. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Arkansas is a solid  22-10 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997;  33-14 UNDER (+17.6 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. WM is a solid 33-18 UNDER (+13.2 Units) in road games facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots since 1997. WM head coach Jeter is 29-13 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in road games facing solid shooting teams making >=45% of their shots; Arkansas HC Anderson is a solid 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Arkansas is off to a strong 8-2 start in large part due to their potent offense. Yet, their defense has been borderline awful in many games. They rank 248th in scoring defense, 215th in shooting percentage allowed, and 279th in FG made allowed. This is an opportunity against a WM team that struggles on the offensive end to tune up the defense. WM ranks a miserable 226th in scoring offense, 214th in assists per game, and 246th in assist-turnover ratio. I expect Arkansas to fully focused on the defensive end, slow the pace of the game knowing they are the superior team. Take the 'UNDER' 

25* graded play 'under' Dallas-NY in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. Knicks have already had a horrific start to their season. yet, if they are to get their NBA act together it will have to start on the defensive end. GM Jackson has had a strong history of focusing on the defensive end when in troubled times and I believe you will see that effort put forth tonight. Further, Knicks are a solid 20-9 UNDER (+10.1 Units) when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Same can said for Dallas, who after winning 5 straight games have gone just 2-3 since. I also believe they will focus more on the defensive end given the known Knicks offensive challenges. Dallas is the highest scoring offensive team in the NBA, but this is more than factored into the line. Defensively, the Knicks have done a good job in the paint ranking 6th best in points allowed in the paint this season. Knicks offense ranks 27th in scoring offense and 30th in paint scoring. Dallas has shown a strong paint defense ranking third best at just 38.8 PPG. Take the 'UNDER'. 

15* graded play 'UNDER' San Antonio-Houston TNT Thursday Night NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 56-24 mark for 70% winners since 1996. Play 'under' with any team (Houston and San Antonio) in a game involving two good three point shooting teams making >=36.5% and in a game involving two below average ball handling teams committing >=16.5 turnovers per game. I strongly believe defense will featured by the Spurs tonight and they certainly have the personnel to control the tempo of this game. They are also a sound rebounding team and this serves to minimize multi-shot possessions. Spurs are 40-24 UNDER (+13.6 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game over the last three seasons. Spurs have shown they are the best ball handling and ball distribution team in the NBA for many seasons. No team can move the ball faster and with greater precision than the Spurs. So, I look at the high number of turnovers as just 2 sub-par nights for them in the first three games of the season. Take the 'under'

15* graded play 'UNDER' Golden State/Portland in NBA Western Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. Both teams are excellent rebounding teams and this serves to minimize multi-shot possessions. I don't see either team with more than 12 offensive boards. Further, the public is betting with a bit of irrational exuberance with better than 76% of all wagers taking the 'over'. Being on the book side serves to reinforce the play that I have on the 'under'. I would also suggest waiting till mid-afternoon to anticipate the line moving past 208 and possibly as high as 210. Take the 'UNDER'.

10* graded play 'UNDER' in Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the SA Spurs and the Miami Heat set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 195 points will be scored in this game.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-6 'under' mark for 80% winners since 1996. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) and after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games and now facing an opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. Miami is a solid 19-9 UNDER (+9.1 Units) when they attempt 18 to 22 free throws in a game this season; 37-20 UNDER (+15.0 Units) when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Spurs are 39-24 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are by far the most fundamentally sound NBA team this season. Their ball movement and patience is second to none. They certainly are much deeper off the bench and rarely do any of the Spurs starters paly more than 32 minutes. Parker is playing and even if he has reduced minutes, the Spurs will still be in good shape. Parker was out in Game 6 and unable to return and the Spurs put on one of their best team games of the season against OKC. Miami is going to have many one shot possessions and neither team will shoot above 50% from the floor. I am looking for a very physical game with many possessions using the entire shot clock. Spurs have proven all season that the pace of play is not a factor to them. However, the Heat will play a slower style of game and will be greatly focused on the defensive end. Spurs are a solid 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in home games versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996. Take the 'UNDER' 

10* graded play 'OVER' Oklahoma City-San Antonio in Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinal set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 215 points will be scored. Game 1 had no trouble going over the total and both teams need to play the same type of pace. Arguably, the Thunder need to play even faster in an attempt to wear down the Spurs defense. In game 1, which I lost by the way playing the Thunder, I had though the combo of Westbrook and Jackson would be too much speed and quickness for the Spurs to handle. however, it was Tim Duncan that was too much for the Thunder to handle. He had 27 points and was +8 point while in the game; shot 11-19 and 5-6 form the charity stripe. Danny Green was an incredible +30 points while scoring his 16 points in 27 minutes of playing time. The day off helps the Thunder change defensive assignments and review defensive rotations. Westbrook and Jackson combined for 38 points, but Jackson was -9 points scoring 13 points in his 28 minutes of play. No player on the Thunder that played 10+ minutes was '+' in the game. That will change tonight. I feel very confident Thunder will come out blazing and look to get this game into a track meet. Spurs have been very comfortable all season and in the playoffs in games where both teams easily go over the century mark. Take the 'OVER' 

10* graded play 'UNDER' in Game of the Eastern Conference Finals between Indiana and Miami set to tip at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 180 points will be scored in this game. Based on the SIM projections I don't see either team exceeding 90 total points on their own merit. The Pacers have the physicality to disrupt the flow of the Miami offense as they proved clearly in the second half of their Game 1 win. This win was also one of my 10* Top Rated Titans too. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Miami is  422-311 UNDER (+79.9 Units) in slowdown games where they attempt 76 or less shots since 1996;  194-114 UNDER (+68.6 Units) when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game since 1996; 378-30 UNDER (+345.0 Units) where both teams score 92 or less points in a game since 1996;  Indiana is a perfect 19-0 UNDER (+19.0 Units) where both teams score 92 or less points in a game this season; 22-6 UNDER (+15.4 Units) when they score 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 38-16 UNDER (+20.4 Units) when they attempt 18 to 22 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. Yes, it is a self fulfilling prophesy when two teams score below their averages that the 'UNDER' would win the money. The point is that the SIM projects this scenario and outcome tonight and historically the results are quite strong. Moreover, Pacers are a solid 29-15 UNDER (+12.5 Units) when facing poor foul drawing teams attempting <=24 free throws/game  in the second half of this season. Indiana is also  33-13 UNDER (+18.7 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season; 18-7 UNDER (+10.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. As I stated in the Game 1 report, Bosh was a non-factor shooting 4-for-12 and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc for a grand total of nine points. This will be a building theme throughout the series. Moreover, the Pacers had just 6 fast break points and this reflects their willingness to control the pace of play and not a lack of fast break scoring opportunities. I believe both teams will turn up the defensive intensity tonight. The Pacers in no way whatsoever benefit from getting into a shootout with the Heat. The Heat need to get to the rim more often in the half court sets and draw fouls. Pacers will just not allow the Heat to get going on the fast break knowing how effective that was in the second half of Game 1. Take the 'UNDER'. 

10* graded play on 'UNDER' Portland-San Antonio in Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that  fewer than 205 points will be scored in this game. I have been on the 'UNDER' in this series having lost a Game of the Year play this past Saturday. However, with my SIM, you learn to have short memories and not allow any loss to prevent the exact play from being made again. Why? because we know the system works over time. It does amaze me many times, when an amateur bettor will swear-off betting a given NFL team, for example, 'because they screwed me the last time I played them'. That type of negative reaction keeps your mind in the past and doesn't allow you the freedom to pursue the next money making wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-13 'under' mark for 74% winners since 2008. Play 'under' with  all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) revenging a straight up loss to current opponent installed as  a favorite and in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season. The SIM shows that Portland will shoot between 39 and 42% of their shots. In past games, the Spurs are a solid 12-4 'UNDER' (+7.6 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 42% of their shots in a game this season. Spurs are a solid 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games facing low pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. This game situation is one that I strongly believe is why the 'UNDER' will be the correct play tonight. No other team in the NBA passes the ball better, faster, and with greater precision, than the Spurs. This has been the case for nearly a decade of NBA play and is nothing new. Some media personalities say it is the unselfish play of their starts. Well, that is one way to look at it, but it is more a desire to win big games by making the EXTRA pass that gets the wide open shot for ANY teammate on the floor. The fact that Portland packs the paint and does a decent job in protecting the rim simply allows the Spurs to make that extra pass and in some possessions, each of the five players touch the ball twice. Obviously, this winds the clock down and I expect many shot attempts by both teams to be in the less than 7 second range. Take the 'UNDER' 

10* graded play 'UNDER' San Antonio-Portland in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal game set to start at 10:30 PM ET.The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 205 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-31 'under' mark for 69% winners since 2008. Play 'under' with  any team (PORTLAND) after two or more consecutive overs and now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive overs.   Here is a second system that has gone 36-11 'under' for 77% winners since 2008. Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) after a blowout win by 15 points or more and is now facing an opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. Granted, these systems match because of the 7-game series being played, BUIT they are valid and supportive of the SIM grading. SIM shows that Portland will score 99 to 104 points in this game. In past games, they are a solid 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game this season. This also implies that Portland will win this game. I recommend a 5* play on Portland and a 3* parlay play using Portland on the money line and the 'under'. Spurs are a solid 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Take the 'UNDER' 

10* graded play 'UNDER' Portland-San Antonio in Game 2 of their Western Conference semifinal series set to start at 9:30 PM ET.The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored in this game. The first game was a run and shoot type of affair as SA got out to an impressive lead and Portland was forced to play fast. I strongly believe this game will be much more methodical and one that favors the Spurs to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. As I mentioned in my game 1 winner on the Spurs, both teams are elite offenses, but the most dominant difference is the superior Spurs defense. That defense will be on display tonight. One shot possessions is what the Spurs are excellent at inflicting upon their opponents. Portland cannot keep pace if the Spurs limit them to one shot possessions the majority of the time. Spurs can execute the half court offense and not always look to the fast break off missed shots in transition. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 'under' mark for 83.3% winners since 1996. Play 'under' home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) that is an excellent shooting team making >=47.5% of their shots and now facing against an defensive team allowing 43.5 to 45.5% and is a hot shooting team posting 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots.  SIM projects that Portland will shoot less than 42%. SA is a solid 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 42% of their shots in a game this season. Take the 'UNDER' 

10* graded play 'UNDER' Clippers-GS in game 6 of their Western Conference First Round playoff game set to start at 10:35 PM ET.The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 205 points will be scored in this game. One of three elimination games on the NBA card. I strongly believe this game will take on a much greater defensive intensity than in any of the previous five games in this series. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-28 mark for 68% winners since 2008. Play 'under' with road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (LA CLIPPERS) and is an eliteteam outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game and now facing an opponent after allowing 105 points or more. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. Golden State is a solid 20-10 UNDER (+9.0 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season; 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game this season; 19-8 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in home games when they make 71% to 77% of their free throws in a game over the last 3 seasons; 29-19 UNDER (+8.1 Units) when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game this season; 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) in home games in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Moreover, Golden State is a very strong 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more this season. Both teams will look to solid defensive rebounding looking to minimize multi-shot possessions. This type of game will be modestly slower-paced than the previous five given the meaning of the game for both teams. Take the 'UNDER' 

10* graded play 'UNDER' Portland/Houston in NBA action set to start at 9:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 208 points will be scored in this game. This is Game 5 with Portland leading 3-1 and looking to close out the series with a win. Much like the game last night between the Bulls and Washington a greater defensive presence will be on display by both teams tonight. It will certainly be higher scoring than the Bulls-Wizards game last night, but given this is an elimination game for the home team, the pace of play will be far more cautious and methodical. Houston cannot afford to get into a fast paced affair and end up trailing by double digits. They must work the ball and find the best shot available. If they are to be successful, Harden cannot look to take control of the game in the first quarter. There must be a scheme to work teammates and spread the Portland defense. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-12 mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) and after having lost 4 of their last 5 games; with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. Here is a second system that has gone 71-33 ATS for 68% winners since 2008. Play 'under' with  any team (PORTLAND) after 3 or more consecutive 'overs' and now facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive 'overs'. Houston is a solid money making 15-3 'UNDER' (+11.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. Take the 'UNDER'.  

10* graded play 'UNDER' Bulls-Washington in Game 5 of their First Round Eastern Conference Playoff series set to tip at 8:05 PM ET.The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 180 points will be scored in this game. Chicago is down 3-games-to-one and they must focus on the defensive end and then use solid ball movement in the offensive half court sets if they are to push this series back to Washington for Game 6. Obviously, I think they can get the job done and I would suggest playing a 5* amount on the Bulls. No parlay is warranted though so just play a 10* amount 'UNDER' the posted total and a 5* amount on the Bulls. Washington is an excellent perimeter shooting team, but I strongly believe they will struggle tonight. The Bulls ranked 2nd in opponent shooting efficiency during the regular season and their defensive presence will be significantly better at the arc. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-31 'UNDER' mark for 68% winners since 2008. Play 'UNDER' with any team (CHICAGO) after 2 or more consecutive 'overs' and is now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive 'overs'. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Chicago is a solid  34-18 UNDER (+14.2 Units) in home games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season; 18-8 UNDER (+9.2 Units) in home games when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons; 26-14 UNDER (+10.6 Units) in home games in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Take the 'UNDER'. 

10* graded play 'OVER' the posted total in the Toronto-Brooklyn Game 4 set to start at 7:05 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that more than 200 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this play is a series of game situations that match the projections produced by the SIM. Toronto is a near-perfect 17-1 OVER (+15.9 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game this season; 40-24 OVER (+13.6 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; Brooklyn is a solid 27-14 OVER (+11.6 Units) in home games when they grab 9 or less offensive rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons; 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game this season;  22-8 OVER (+13.2 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. The matchups favor a significantly fast paced game than has been seen in the first three games. The Nets know they have the Raptors on the ropes and Jason Kidd played for many teams that used up tempo to take the heart out of an opponent - especially in playoff series. Toronto is a solid  13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in games played in the 2nd half of this season. Brooklyn is a solid 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games when facing good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons;  16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game in games played in the 2nd half of this season. Take the 'OVER' 

10* graded play 'OVER' Portland/Houston in Game 3 of their Western Conference First Round playoff matchup set to start at 10:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that 220 points will be scored in this game. Houston finds themselves down 2-games to none in this best-of-seven series. In order for them to mount a comeback, they must get the offense rolling from the opening tip. Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon has been working with the Rockets and especially Howard during the past weeks. I view this as a highly positive development that can only help support the team and their mental approach to winning the game tonight. I will confirm with you that there is no graded play on the Rockets, but based on the matchups, I do think Houston has a solid shot at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-19 'over' mark for 65% winners since 2008. Play 'over' with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) and is off an upset loss as a home favorite and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points. The SIM shows very high probabilities for the following game situations to be validated tonight. Houston is a solid 34-7 OVER (+26.3 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season;  17-2 OVER (+14.8 Units) in road games when they score 105 or more points in a game this season; 40-10 OVER (+29.0 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. Portland already plays at a high pace and with Houston looking to push the pace to even higher amount, there will be a ton of shot attempts. Houston is a solid  16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game in the second half of this season. Portland is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) when playing against a strong team winning between 60% to 70% of their games this season; 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) facing teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season. Take the 'OVER'.