Kansas City and Pittsburgh both come into this game with 2-1 records, but last week had the teams with opposite outcomes.  The Chiefs beat the Jets 24-3 at home while the Steelers lost 34-3 in Philadelphia.  Tonight’s game will have the Chiefs’ defense taking a major step back as the Steelers’ offense will bounce back with a strong performance.  Kansas City’s defensive numbers appear to be good; they are only giving up 16.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  However, the opposing offenses have been extremely weak while only averaging 21.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a potent Pittsburgh offense off a terrible performance, so expect the Chiefs’ worst defensive game of the season.

Pittsburgh has played just one home game so far, and that came in a driving rainstorm against divisional rival Cincinnati.  The Steelers still scored 24 points in that game.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been highly explosive at home, especially quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  He owns an incredible 42/13 touchdown/interception ratio while averaging 342 passing yards per game at home over the last three seasons.  Kansas City’s defense was shredded by Philip Rivers in the season opener, and Roethlisberger will do the same tonight.  Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing 6.5 yards per play, so Kansas City’s offense will also score their share of points.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Steelers on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

The Chicago Bears slogged thru a miserable 6-10 season last year, and they’ve picked-up right where they left off.  Chicago is 0-2 on the season after losses to the Texans and Eagles with the latter being an embarrassing effort on Monday night.  Quarterback Jay Cutler is out after hurting his thumb, but truth be told, that’s a positive thing for Chicago’s offense.  Brian Hoyer plays with much more gusto and confidence than Cutler, and we expect a surprisingly strong offensive game from the Bears tonight.  Chicago will face a Dallas defense that is allowing 21.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus offenses that only average 18.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.

Dallas is 1-1 on the season under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott.  He was the talk of the preseason, and so far so good in the regular season.  Prescott will look like he did in the preseason as he’ll be facing a Chicago defense that is decimated with injuries.  The Bears will be without five defensive starters tonight after they all got hurt in the last game.  Prescott dominated second unit defenses in the preseason, and that’s essentially what he’s facing tonight.  Overall, the Bears have given up 26 points per game despite playing a pair of offenses that only average 21.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Bears and Cowboys on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington has some major holes on the defensive side of the ball.  The Redskins defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 24 points and 379 yards per game.  On the road last season, Washington gave up 21 points or more in all eight of their games while giving up an average of 28.8 points per game.  The Redskins gave up 32 points to the Giants in New York last season.  In two games so far this season, Washington has given up 38 points to Pittsburgh and 27 points to Dallas.  And both of those games were at home.  Overall, Washington is allowing 32.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 27 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

New York is 2-0 on the season after squeaking out close wins over the Cowboys and Saints.  The Giants’ offense has yet to put things together while scoring just 20 and 16 points in their two games.  However, we expect New York’s potent offense to breakout in a major way this afternoon against the pathetic Washington defense.  Quarterback Eli manning is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season, and he’ll be throwing against a Redskins defense that is allowing a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Giants offense will have little resistance, and we certainly expect them to easily eclipse 28 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Redskins on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

Tennessee’s offense played much better than it appears on paper.  The Titans only scored 16 points in a home loss to the Vikings, but they led 10-0, and started to play conservatively.  They became predictable, and the strong Minnesota defense shut them down after that.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota then threw a 77-yard pick-6, and the offense lost two fumbles with one being returned for a touchdown in the second half.  That sequence of events turned the whole game around, and it prevented Tennessee’s offense from scoring more points.  The Titans still averaged 5.0 yards per play, and quarterback Mario Mariota completed 25 passes for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 

Detroit won 39-35 in a high-scoring shootout in Indianapolis last Sunday.  The Lions offense was terrific as they racked up 448 yards of total offense while averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent as he completed 79.5% (31-39) of his passes for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Stafford averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while earning a 128.6 quarterback rating; the second best of Week 1.  However, the Lions’ defense also gave up 35 points on 450 yards of total offense.  Their secondary was carved-up by Andrew Luck; he threw for 368 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Titans and Lions on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit and Indianapolis have some major question marks on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions defense was dreadful last season as they gave up 25 points and 349 yards per game.  On the road last season, the Lions gave up 20 points or more in six of their eight games.  That included games against woeful offenses like the Chargers, Rams, and Bears.  If the preseason was any indication, the Detroit defense may be even worse this season; they gave up 30 points in two of their four games.  Indianapolis’ defense was also poor last season as they gave up 25 points on 379 yards of offense per game.  The Colts held their opposition to less than 20 points in just four of their sixteen games in 2015.  Indianapolis also has cluster injuries in their secondary, so they’ll have to play unproven talent against what projects to be a potent Detroit offense in this game.  

The Lions and Colts will both possess potent offenses this season.  Detroit installed an up-tempo spread attack that really took off last season.  Their offense got better and better as the season went on, and in fact, the Lions scored 23 points or more in five of their last six games.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent in those games, and overall he finished the season by completing 67.2% of his passes with an excellent 32/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  The  Indianapolis offense will have a healthy Andrew Luck at quarterback, and his presence alone makes the Colts an efficient scoring team.  Luck threw 15 touchdown passes in just seven games in 2015 despite playing banged-up.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Colts on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Louisville’s offense was in mid-season form last week as they scored 70 points on 663 yards against Charlotte.  The Cardinals were extremely balanced in that game with 272 yards on the ground and 391 yards thru the air.  Quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 73.9% (17-23) of his passes while throwing six touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  Louisville’s offense should have another productive offensive game against a Syracuse defense that is taking a major step-up in class after facing a pedestrian Colgate offense last week.  The Orange gave up 31 points and 439 yards per game last season; they gave up 41 points on 579 yards of offense to Louisville.

Syracuse scored 33 points on 554 yards of total offensive in their easy 26-point win over Colgate last week.  New head coach Dino Babers brought his fast-paced, high-octane offense with him from Bowling Green where his teams averaged 30 and 42.2 points per game in his two years.  Syracuse’s offense was efficient as they ran 81 plays overall, including 46 pass attempts that averaged a whopping 9.5 yards per pass.  Quarterback Eric Dungey completed an incredible 85% (34-40) of his passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns.  Look for a lot of offense in this game; Louisville and Syracuse Over the total.      

9* Play OVER the total.

Carolina and Denver will open the 2016 NFL season in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl in which the Broncos won 24-10.  That was a low-scoring defensive struggle, and we expect tonight’s game to play out in a similar way.  Carolina’s offensive line was manhandled by Denver’s defensive line in the Super Bowl, and with the same personnel returning, it’s hard to see much difference tonight.  The Panthers are a run first offense, and when they are successful running the ball, passing plays open up for quarterback Cam Newton.  But even if that happens to a degree, Newton will be throwing against a very good Denver secondary that stifled him in the Super Bowl.

Denver will be beginning a new chapter tonight with second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian under center.  Siemian has limited experience, and he’ll be facing a tough and physical Carolina front seven.  The Panthers have questions to answer in the secondary with a pair of rookies starting at the corners, but it’s unlikely that Siemian will be able to take advantage of that in his first start of the season.  Denver will also look to run the ball with great frequency tonight as they do not want to pin this game on Siemian’s arm.  The Bronocs know their defense will keep them in this game, so a conservative offensive game plan will be seen.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Panthers and Broncos on Thursday night.  

10* Play UNDER the total.

Notre Dame was a loss away from reaching the college football playoff last season.  The Irish could find themselves in the hunt once again this season as their schedule sets up nicely for a deep run.  Notre Dame will play a two quarterback system with DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, so it will be interesting to see how the offense performs in that situation.  Notre Dame will be facing a Texas defense that should be much improved this year as they return eight starters on that side of the ball.

Texas has a lot of hype coming into 2016.  Head coach Charlie Strong is on a very hot seat, so it’s all or nothing for the Longhorns.  Texas will also be running a two quarterback offense with senior Tyrone Swoopes and true freshman Shane Buechele under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert who was behind Baylor’s potent offensive attack the last few seasons.  However, Texas is installing a fast tempo, full spread offense, and it’s simply going to take time for them to execute it correctly and efficiently.  Notre Dame’s defense held Texas to just 3 points and 8 first downs on just 163 yards of total offense in last year’s game, and it’s hard to see the Longhorns having a lot of success in this game.  We expect a low-scoring game between Notre Dame and Texas on Sunday night.      

9* Play UNDER the total.

Carolina’s two playoff games couldn't have started any better as they jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead over Seattle, and a 17-0 first quarter lead over Arizona.  The Panthers didn't stop there as they extended their leads to 31-0 at the half over the Seahawks, and 24-7 at the half over the Cardinals.  The Panthers had good fortune in both of those games with their opponents turning the ball over which led to easy scores for Carolina.  However, this game should be much different against the stout Denver defense.  The Panthers’ offense did lead the NFL in first half scoring while averaging 17.8 points per game.  But Denver’s defense ranked 5th in the league in first half scoring; they allowed just 8.8 points per game.  Overall, the Broncos are only allowing 18.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this season, so Carolina’s offense will have to earn every point they get in this game, especially in the first half against a fresh Denver defense.            

Denver had to play two different playoff games to reach the Super Bowl.  The Broncos trailed for most of the first 45 minutes against Pittsburgh before pulling out the win in the fourth quarter.  Denver led wire-to-wire against New England as their defense simply dominated that game at the line of scrimmage.  The Broncos gave up just 10 first half points to the Steelers, and just 9 first half points to the Patriots.  Denver’s defensive profile showed that they started games off strong before wearing down late; nothing should change in this game.  Denver’s best chance to win this game is to play ball control, and let their defense do the rest.  That is especially true early on in this game, so we expect a conservative game plan by the Broncos.  Carolina’s defense ranked #2 in the NFL while giving up just 7.1 points per game in the first half.  Denver’s offense only averaged 10.9 points per game in the first half.  We expect this game to have limited offense early on, and while the second half should produce more points, a low-scoring first half will provide enough cushion for this game to stay Under the full game total.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Arizona’s offense is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 63.5% (367-578) of his passes for 5,020 yards with an excellent 38/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt.  Palmer will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th.  The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Arizona wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield just like Seattle did last week.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 32.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 236.7 yards per game thru the air on 8.0 yards per pass attempt.  Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,998 yards this season with an excellent 36/10 touchdown/interception ratio.  Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against an Arizona defense that has allowed 56 points in their last two games.  The Panthers have scored 24 points or more in every home game this season.  We expect a high-scoring NFC Championship game between the Cardinals and Panthers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Seattle’s offense has been excellent over the second half of the season.  The Seahawks have scored 29 points or more in seven of their last nine games, including 35 points or more in four of those games.  Overall, Seattle is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 68.1% (329-483) of his passes for 4,024 yards with an excellent 34/8 touchdown/interception ratio.  Wilson is averaging a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt.  Wilson will face a young and inexperienced Carolina cornerback in Robert McClain who the Panthers just signed on December 15th.  The Panthers also play older veterans in the secondary, so the young and fast Seattle wide receivers will exploit that unit for big plays downfield.

Carolina also has a strong offense that is averaging 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 247.4 yards per game thru the air on 8.1 yards per pass attempt.  Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has thrown for 3,837 yards this season with an excellent 35/10 touchdown/interception ratio.  Carolina’s offense will score their share of points against a Seattle defense that has only faced one explosive offense in their last six games.  The Panthers scored 27 points on the Seahawks in Seattle in an earlier season meeting, and their offense has been better at home where they’ve scored 24 points or more in every game this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Seahawks and Panthers on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Green Bay and Washington match-up well for a high-scoring game on Sunday.  The Packers come into this game off back-to-back poor offensive performances.  They scored just 8 points in Arizona two weeks ago, and they scored just 13 points at home against Minnesota last week.  But Green Bay will bounce back with a much better performance in this game, especially since they are facing a Washington defense that has given up 72 points in their last three games against bad offenses like the Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys.  Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a fantastic 31/8 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  Rodgers and the Packers offense will go up against a Redskins defense that ranks 19th against the pass in efficiency while giving up 30 touchdown passes this season.  Washington’s defense has also been gouged on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 385 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush over their last three games.  Green Bay will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air.  

Washington’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 25.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins comes into this game in tremendous current form; he has completed 73% of his passes with an exceptional 11/0 touchdown/interception ratio over his last three games.  Overall, Cousins has thrown for 4,166 yards with a 29/11 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Green Bay defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road.  The Packers’ secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, so Cousins will throw the ball all over the field tonight.  Washington’s running game has also been terrific at home where they are averaging 130.7 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Packers give up 124 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road.  Both offenses will move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Packers and Redskins on Sunday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

West Virginia and Arizona State have two offensive-minded coaches that will result in a high-scoring shootout.  The Mountaineers’ offense averaged 33.2 points per game this season, and their recent bowl history suggests a lot of points in this game.  West Virginia’s last two bowl games were both shootouts; they lost 45-37 to Texas A&M last year and they beat Clemson 70-33 a few years back.  The Mountaineers have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they were night and day at home and on the road.  Away from home, West Virginia’s defense was simply terrible as they gave up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Against seven bowl opponents, West Virginia gave up 33 points per game on 429 yards of offense this season.  West Virginia is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Mountaineers’ defense to get exposed.       

Arizona State has a potent offense that averaged 34 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils were well-balanced as they averaged 185.2 yards on the ground and 288.6 yards thru the air per game this season.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of scoring a lot of points in bowl games; 36 points last year, 62 points in 2012, 62 points in 2010, 45 points in 2008, and 63 points in 2007.  Arizona State’s defense played below average this season as the Sun Devils allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Against the ten bowl teams they faced this season, Arizona State gave up 35 points on 457 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between West Virginia and Arizona State on Saturday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Kansas State and Arkansas are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Saturday afternoon.  Kansas State averaged 30.5 points per game this season.  The Wildcats are extremely well-balanced as they ran and passed for more than 160 yards per game this season.  Kansas State will be facing a poor Arkansas defense that allowed 28.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Overall, the Razorbacks gave up 6.1 yards per play against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 5.9 yards per play this season.  Against the nine bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas allowed 32 points on 437 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas also had a very good offense this season.  The Razorbacks averaged 35.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Like Kansas State, the Razorbacks were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 192 yards and threw for 264 yards per game this season.  Kansas State’s defense played below average football as the Wildcats gave up 30.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 31.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Kansas State allowed 41 points on 526 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Kansas State and Arkansas on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Mississippi and Oklahoma State both have explosive offenses, and on a fast track inside a dome, we expect a high-scoring game.  The Rebels have an offense that averaged 40.2 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 29.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Mississippi is well-balanced as they ran for 182 yards per game and passed for more than 333 yards per game.  The Rebels running game averaged 5.1 yards per rush this season, and they will face an Oklahoma State run defense that is not in good current form.  The Cowboys allowed 218 rushing yards or more in their last four games of the season.  Oklahoma State’s defense gave up 29 points or more in their last five games, and overall they allowed 37 points and 524 yards per game to the seven bowl opponents they faced this season.

Oklahoma State had an explosive passing attack this season.  The Cowboys threw for 357 yards per game on an incredible 9.1 yards per pass attempt.  Quarterback Mason Rudolph will face a Mississippi secondary that ranked 55th in efficiency while giving up 23 passing touchdowns this season.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense averaged 41.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Cowboys will face a Mississippi defense that allowed 31.6 points per game away from home this season.  The Rebels defense allowed 402 yards or more in four of their five road games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between Mississippi and Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl on Friday night.   

9* Play OVER the total.

Wisconsin and USC match-up well for a low-scoring game on Wednesday night.  The Badgers play a conservative style of football as they rely heavily on their running game and their defense to win games.  Quarterback Joel Stave is a below-average college quarterback, and it’s highly unlikely he will do much damage against a fast and aggressive USC defense.  Overall this season, Wisconsin’s offense only averaged 27.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Away from home, the Badgers only averaged 4.9 yards per play.  Wisconsin will face a USC defense that played very well considering the tough offensive teams they went up against.  The Trojans allowed 25.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 34.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.

USC’s offense was projected to be much better than they were this season.  The Trojans have a terrific quarterback in Cody Kessler, but their offensive line was a mess all season long, and that line is in shambles for this game.  Kessler got sacked 35 times this season, and the line in front of him tonight will be missing its starting left tackle while a right side starter will flip to the left side  with a true freshman starting as well.  USC’s success this season came when they were able to run the ball consistently, but that is going to be extremely difficult to do in this game.  Wisconsin has an excellent defense that is only allowing 13.1 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season.  The Badgers have been terrific in stopping the run as they only gave up 98.2 yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush this season.  Wisconsin and USC will both have trouble generating offense, so we expect a low-scoring game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

Texas Tech and LSU is a terrific matchup for a back and forth high-scoring shootout.  The Red Raiders will throw the ball on just about every play while the Tigers will run the ball for chunk yards on just about every play.  Texas Tech has a potent offense that averaged 46.6 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play this season.  Texas Tech was well-balanced as they ran for 206 yards per game and threw for 390 yards per game.  The Red Raiders played seven bowl opponents this season, and their offense didn’t slow down at all.  They averaged 41 points per game on 549 yards per game while gaining 6.7 yards per play.  The impressive thing about Texas Tech’s offensive numbers is the fact they accumulated them against a decent group of opposing defenses.  The Red Raiders’ opponents only allowed 5.9 yards per play as a group.  In three games in which LSU allowed 140 yards or more on the ground and thru the air, their opponents scored 30, 31, and 38 points.     

LSU had an explosive offense early in the season; the Tigers averaged 38.9 points per game over their first seven games this season.  They scored 44 points or more in four of those games.  But the Tigers struggled down the stretch against some stout SEC defenses; they only averaged 16.5 points per game in their last four conference games.  LSU will now face one of the worst defenses in the country, and we fully expect their offense to look like they did early in the season.  Overall, LSU averaged 30.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Tigers put those numbers up against a group of defenses that only allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  LSU has a potent running game that averaged 246.6 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  Texas Tech’s defense was shredded for 42.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  Against seven bowl teams, Texas Tech allowed 50 points per game on 7.2 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between Texas Tech and LSU on Tuesday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Cincinnati bounced back strongly as expected last week when they won 24-14 in San Francisco.  That win was preceded by a home loss to Pittsburgh after quarterback Andy Dalton left with a broken thumb.  A.J. McCarron was good in relief against the Steelers, and last week he simply played mistake-free football while not being asked to do too much.  The challenge for McCarron this week increases significantly against the stout Denver defense.  The Bengals’ offense will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  Denver’s defense is terrific against the run and the pass, and they lead the NFL in sacks with 47 on the season.  McCarron has taken seven sacks in the two games he has played, so that will be an issue for the Cincinnati offense in this game.  Overall, the Broncos are only allowing 18.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play at home this season.            

Denver returns home after blowing a 27-10 lead in Pittsburgh last week.  The Broncos’ offense was shutout in the second half for the third consecutive week after opposing defenses made adjustments in defending quarterback Brock Osweiler.  Denver’s offense has been non-explosive all season; they are only averaging 22 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense has been even worse at home where they are scoring just 21 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Cincinnati’s defense is also one of the best in the league; the Bengals are holding opponents to just 17 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  With two young quarterbacks facing strong, veteran defenses, we expect a low-scoring game between the Bengals and Broncos on Monday night.     

10* Play UNDER the total.

New York comes into this game off a high-scoring close loss at home to undefeated Carolina.  The Giants made a furious rally to tie the game after trailing 35-7 in the second half; they ultimately fell short in a 38-35 loss.  That was a draining game, and it was also costly as New York will be without their best offensive player (Odell Beckham); he’s suspended for fighting last week.  New York will be a flat team already, and without Beckham, the Giants will have a difficult time moving the ball in this game.  New York will face a Minnesota defense that is only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play at home this season.  The Vikings’ defense has held ten of their fourteen opponents to 20 points or less this season.       

Minnesota is 9-5 after beating Chicago last week.  The Vikings’ offense will look to control this game on the ground with running back Adrian Peterson.  Minnesota shouldn’t have any trouble doing exactly that as the Giants’ defense is allowing 114.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush this season.  The Vikings’ offense is not explosive by any means, especially at home where they are only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is essentially a game manager, and the Vikings offense isn’t built to take advantage of a poor New York secondary.  The two offenses will struggle, so we expect a low-scoring game between the Giants and Vikings on Sunday night.   

9* Play UNDER the total.

Tulsa and Virginia Tech both went 6-6 this season.  Both teams played difficult schedules, so this bowl game is a nice reward which means it should be played fast and loose.  Tulsa’s offense was explosive under head coach Philip Montgomery who was previously Baylor’s offensive coordinator.  Montgomery installed a similar scheme to the one he ran at Baylor, and Tulsa was a scoring machine this year.  The Golden Hurricane averaged 35.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  Their offense was even better away from home where they averaged 36.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Tulsa scored 40 points or more in six of their twelve games with three of those games coming on the road.  Tulsa will face a Virginia Tech defense that allowed 30 points per game on 6.0 yards per play against the six bowl teams they played this season.  

Virginia Tech’s offensive numbers were skewed this season because starting quarterback Michael Brewer missed five games because of injury.  But over the last five games of the season, the Hokies’ offense averaged 28.4 points per game.  Overall this season, Virginia Tech averaged 29 points per game against a slate of defensive opponents that only allowed 25.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Virginia Tech will face an atrocious Tulsa defense that allowed 38.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  Against six bowl teams this season, the Golden Hurricane gave up 45 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s offense will face the worst defense they’ve seen all season, and it would be shocking if they didn’t score 40 points or more in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Tulsa and Virginia Tech on Saturday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Boise State and Northern Illinois had similar records this season; the Broncos went 8-4 while the Huskies went 8-5.  Both teams played extremely easy schedules with Boise State facing the #105 schedule and Northern Illinois facing the #97 schedule.  Boise State’s offenses was terrific this season as they averaged 37.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Broncos’ offense was even better away from home where they averaged 40.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Broncos scored 52 points or more in four games this season.  Northern Illinois’ defense gave up 400 yards per game this season, so it doesn’t make sense that they only allowed 25.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Those numbers don’t jive, and in fact, the Huskies allowed 26 points or more in eight of their twelve games this season.  Against the six bowl teams they faced, the Huskies allowed an average of 197 rushing yards and 202 passing yards per game.

Northern Illinois also has a potent offense that is extremely well-balanced.  Overall this season, the Huskies averaged 33 points per game with 205 rushing yards and 222 passing yards per game.  They put those strong numbers up against a slate of defensive opponents that allowed 29.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Northern Illinois will face a Boise State defense that faced a slew of weak offenses that only averaged 25.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Broncos’ defense will face the best offense they’ve seen all season, and they’ve had trouble against strong rushing offenses.  In three games against bowl teams in which they allowed 150 rushing yards or more, Boise State gave up 52, 31, and 37 points.  We expect a high-scoring game between Boise State and Northern Illinois in this game on Wednesday afternoon.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Detroit and New Orleans match-up well for a high-scoring game tonight.  The Lions come into this game off a poor offensive performance in St. Louis last week; they only scored 14 points on 331 yards of total offense.  But Detroit will bounce back with a much better performance tonight, especially since they are facing a New Orleans defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has played well since their bye back in Week 9; he has a terrific 11/2 touchdown/interception ratio in his last five games.  Stafford and the Lions offense will go up against a Saints defense that has allowed 36 touchdown passes this season; the most in the league.  New Orleans has also been gouged on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 367 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per rush over their last three games.  Detroit will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground and thru the air.  

New Orleans’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 32.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.  Quarterback Drew Brees has completed 71.5% of his passes while averaging a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt at home.  Overall, Brees has thrown for 3,794 yards with a 25/11 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will face a Detroit defense that is giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Lions’ secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt, so Brees will throw the ball all over the field tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lions and Saints on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season.  The Cardinals’ offense is averaging 31.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona has taken their offense on the road as well; the Cardinals are averaging 31.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play away from home.  Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 64.5% (292-453) of his passes for 4,003 yards with a terrific 31/9 touchdown/interception ratio.  Palmer is averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll throw all over an Eagles defense that has given up 19 touchdown passes in their last six games. 

Philadelphia’s offense is starting to come around with Sam Bradford under center.  The Eagles have picked up the pace in recent games; they’ve scored 58 points in their last two games.  The Eagles have scored 23 points or more in seven games this season.  Arizona’s defense has faced three pedestrian offenses that can only run the football in their last three games; the Cardinals held the 49ers to 13 points, the Rams to 3 points, and the Vikings to 20 points last week.  Now Arizona will face an up-tempo offense on the road which makes them vulnerable.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Cardinals and Eagles on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Falcons opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record, and they were 6-1 after their first seven games.  But Atlanta has gone winless since, and they come into this game riding a 6-game losing streak.  The Falcons’ offense bottomed out last week in Carolina when they got shutout; Atlanta has scored 21 points or less in eight consecutive games.  However, this game against Jacksonville provides the Atlanta offense with a fantastic opportunity to break out in a major way.  Despite their scoring struggles, Atlanta is still averaging a respectable 5.7 yards per play this season.  QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,705 yards with 17 touchdown passes on the season.  Ryan gets an ideal matchup in this game as the Jaguars rank 27th in pass defense efficiency.  Overall, Jacksonville’s defense is giving up 27.5 points per game versus offenses that only average 22.7 points per game.   

Jacksonville has an exciting, young and explosive offense that should be one of the best in the NFL in the next couple of years.  The Jaguars are averaging 25.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Over their last three games, Jacksonville has scored 115 points.  The Jaguars have scored 22 points or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  Quarterback Blake Bortles is have a terrific season; he has thrown for 3,524 yards with a 30/13 touchdown/interception ratio.  He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games.  Bortles and the Jacksonville offense will face a terrible Atlanta defense that is allowing 23.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road this season.  The Falcons rank 24th in pass defense efficiency, and they are dead last in the league in sacks.  That combination will allow Bortles to throw the ball all over an Atlanta secondary that is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Falcons and Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play OVER the total.

Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Saturday night.  Louisiana Tech has a potent offense that averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Bulldogs were well-balanced as they ran for 154 yards and threw for 311 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech will be facing a poor Arkansas State defense that allowed 33.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play away from home this season.  Overall, the Red Wolves allowed 28.8 points per game against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 26.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  Against the four bowl teams they faced this season, Arkansas State allowed 38 points on 486 yards of offense per game.     

Arkansas State also had a very good offense this season.  The Red Wolves averaged 41 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 33.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Like Louisiana Tech, the Red Wolves were extremely well-balanced as they ran for 236 yards and threw for 212 yards per game this season.  Louisiana Tech’s defense played below average football this season as the Bulldogs gave up 31.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play away from home.  Against the five bowl teams they faced this season, Louisiana Tech allowed 40 points on 471 yards of offense per game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Tampa Bay and St. Louis haven’t been lighting-up opponents this season, but tonight’s matchup gives both teams a nice opportunity to breakout offensively.  The Bucs will lean heavily on their running game, especially since the Rams’ run defense has been torched over the last few weeks.  St. Louis has allowed 375 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per rush in their last three games with two of those games coming against teams that have had little success running the ball this season; the Lions and Cardinals.  Tampa Bay features running back Doug Martin who only had 11 carries last week because the Bucs trailed New Orleans by double digits for the majority of the game.  Martin will carry the workload in this game; he ranks second in the NFL with 1,214 rushing yards on the season.  Tampa Bay has also played better offense on the road where they are averaging 24.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season.

St. Louis’ offense has played well below average in the majority of their games, and that led to a new offensive coordinator.  Rob Boras called his first game last week, and the Rams responded with a win while scoring 21 points.  St. Louis will have a tough time running on a stout Tampa Bay rush defense that only allows 94.1 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush.  That means we expect quarterback Case Keenum to throw the ball a lot in this game, especially since the Bucs have been vulnerable to passing attacks all season.  Tampa Bay has allowed 20 points or more in three of their last four road games, so the Rams’ offense will have success since they’ve scored 21 points or more in four home games this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Buccaneers and Rams in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

New York comes into this game off a pair of terrible offensive games; two weeks ago they only scored 14 points in Washington, and last week they only scored 20 points at home against the Jets.  The Giants have scored 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, New York is averaging 25.6 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game.  The Giants will face a poor Miami defense that is giving up 25 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York has a strong passing attack under QB Eli Manning, and he will face a Miami secondary that has given up 24 passing touchdowns this season while allowing opposing quarterbacks a 16/5 touchdown/interception ratio over their last seven games.

Miami’s offense has also played well below average in their last couple of games, especially at home.  The Dolphins have scored just 29 total points in their last two home games, but there are reasons to expect a much better offensive output in tonight’s game against New York.  The Giants’ defense has given up 20 points or more in ten of their twelve games this season.  Overall, New York’s defense is allowing 24.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Giants have been worse on the road where they are giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Giants and Dolphins in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Pittsburgh’s offense has been excellent with Ben Roethlisberger this season.  The Steelers have scored 30 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 25.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Steelers have played two road games with Roethlisberger under center; they scored 30 points on 538 yards of offense at Seattle, and they scored 21 points on 464 yards of offense at New England.  The common thing about those two games is that they were both played on artificial turf; Pittsburgh’s home games are played on natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track in Cincinnati, so the Steelers’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.  Roethlisberger will face a depleted Cincinnati secondary that will be playing a pair of rookies because of injury.  In just eight games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 65.9% (201-305) of his passes for 2,702 yards and 15 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. 

Cincinnati also has a strong offense that is averaging 27.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Bengals have a good passing game at home where they are averaging 247 yards per game thru the air on 7.9 yards per pass attempt.  Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown for 3,191 yards this season while only throwing six interceptions on 381 pass attempts.  Cincinnati’s offense will score their share of points against a Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.2 points per game on 6.4 yards per play on the road this season.  The Bengals have scored 24 points or more in ten of their twelve games while the Steelers have scored 30 points or more in five of the seven games that Roethlisberger has played from start to finish.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Steelers and Bengals on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.

The Under is a perfect 9-0 the past nine years in this series.  It is not a surprise as both teams run the exact same option-offense and each defense is very familiar defending the run.  The past nine head-to-head meetings have averaged just 36 total points per game, despite the average Over/Under line being posted at 52 points.  The oddsmakers continue to base the total on the overall seasonal numbers for each team, but this is not an accurate projection on how these games play out on the field.  In fact, the same Under trend has been prevalent when facing the other military option team, Air Force, as well.  This season the Navy/Air Force game totaled just 44 total points (O/U line 49.5), while the Army/Air Force game totaled only 23 points scored (O/U line 50.5).  Army is now 14-3 Under in recent games versus Navy and Air Force, while Navy is on an incredible 17-2 Under run versus the other two service academies.

The reason these military games are lower scoring than expected is because the oddsmakers use overall season statistics which are inflated.  The military academies are less athletic in the defensive backfield, and unfamiliar with passing offenses, so opponents often put up big passing numbers.  Meanwhile, option offenses normally have more success against conventional defensive opponents who are not familiar with stopping a run-heavy attack.  This means both offensive and defensive seasonal scoring numbers are inflated for the service academies in regular games, but this does not apply when two service academies face each other because they all run the triple-option offense which means very few passes are thrown.  This means less big plays and more game clock being consumed on drives.

Army's weak defensive numbers this season are largely the result of a terrible pass defense that has allowed 62% completions and 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 57% and 7.3 ypp).  Army's secondary has been particularly bad on the road, allowing 68% completions and 9.2 ypp.  However, this defensive weakness is irrelevant today against a Navy offense that has run the ball on 88% of their total offensive plays this season (58 runs, 8 passes per game).  Army's run defense has actually been respectable this year, allowing just 163 yards and 4.5 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 156 yards and 4.2 ypr).

Navy has been a solid defensive team this season, allowing just 21.7 points per game and only 3.9 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 29.4 ppg and 4.5 ypr).  The Midshipmen should have no trouble stopping a weak Army offense that averages just 22.5 points per game this year (versus opponents that allow 28.9 ppg).  Army has run the ball on 87% of their total offensive plays this season (52 runs, 8 passes per game), so the Black Knights will have a tough time playing from behind in this game, especially since they average a paltry 44% completions overall this year.

9* Play UNDER (Army/Navy) the total.

Indianapolis’ offense is starting to come around with Matt Hasselbeck under center.  The Colts have picked up the pace as they are now playing with a much quicker tempo.  The Colts have scored 21 points or more in seven consecutive games, and they are averaging 25.5 points per game over their last four.  We fully expect another strong offensive performance from the Indianapolis offense since the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 80 points in their last three games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is allowing their opponents to average 6.0 yards per play this season.  That poor defensive efficiency plays right into the hands of what the Colts’ offense is doing now with Hasselbeck at quarterback.

Pittsburgh’s offense is terrific when Ben Roethlisberger is under center.  Their seasonal numbers are skewed from the games he missed, but Pittsburgh is still playing above average football.  The Steelers’ offense is averaging 24.2 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 22.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  In just seven games this season, Roethlisberger has completed 66.5% (177-266) of his passes for 2,343 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Roethlisberger is averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and he’ll throw all over a Colts defense that is allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Colts and Steelers on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total.

The New York Jets and the New York Giants will both have the same game plan for this game, and that is to throw the ball a lot.  The teams will both face stout rush defenses that do not give up much on the ground, so we expect the ball to be in the air throughout this game.  The Jets’ offense broke out last week as they scored 38 points on 411 yards of total offense.  We expect their scoring ways to continue against a Giants defense that has given up 20 points or more in nine of their eleven games this season.  Overall, the Jets are averaging 24.7 points per game this season while scoring 20 points or more in four of their five road games.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will face one of the worst secondaries in the league as the Giants rank 25th in efficiency while allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is allowing 24.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.

New York’s other team, the Giants, come in off their second worst offensive game of the season when they only scored 14 points in Washington last week.  That was just the second time this season in which the Giants failed to score at least 20 points in a game.  New York went into that game off a bye, and they were simply out of rhythm.  The Giants’ offensive flow will return this week, and we’ll see the team that averaged 33.5 points per game in the four weeks prior to their bye.  New York has a strong passing attack under QB Eli Manning who is averaging 309.9 yards per game on 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Manning will face a depleted Jets secondary that will be missing Darrelle Revis due to a concussion.  Both offenses will be the best units on the field, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Jets and Giants on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play OVER the total.