CBB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The timing is right with UConn hitting the road off a No. 1 seed-clinching home win over Marquette, especially since they own a dismal 0-5 ATS record in the Last Game of the Season versus .600 or greater foes. Not so for Providence, who is 11-2 SU in Last Home Games, including 4-1 SUATS the last five contests. The Friars have been a strong underdog this season, going 9-3 ATS, including 3-0 ATS at home, and they just so happen to own a perfect 5-0 SUATS mark as a dog of more than 1-point in Last Home Games. With Providence primed to get even with the Huskies for a 9-point loss on the last day of January, finally Providence is 10-1 SUATS as a home dog since 2021, including 4-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater foes; and 4-0 SUATS when seeking revenge

Rating: 3 Units

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (18-12, 10-9 ACC) have carved a niche in the Atlantic Coast with dynamic play. The defeat to Georgia Tech in the last outing demonstrated the team's fighting spirit, despite the unexpected setback at home. With an offense that averages 78.6 points per game, Wake Forest slightly edges out Clemson in scoring. The Demon Deacons excel in shooting efficiency, boasting a 47.5% field goal percentage and an impressive 37.4% from three-point range. Free-throw shooting is among the best in the country, with an 80.0% success rate, showcasing the ability to capitalize on all scoring opportunities.

Rating: 2 Units

The Louisville Cardinals are playing for nothing more than pride and the chance to build some momentum heading into Tuesday's opening-round matchup in the ACC. The Cardinals fell to Virginia Tech at home on Tuesday night, 84-60. The loss ensures the Cardinals the 15th seed in the upcoming ACC Tournament and a date with the 10th seed. On Tuesday night, the Cardinals gave up 13 3-point field goals to fall behind early and never fully recovered. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield led the Cards with 19 points while Mike James chipped in with 16.

Rating: 2 Units

The Oregon State Beavers picked up a huge upset win on Thursday night, picking up a 92-85 win over Utah on the road. Jordan Pope had a huge night with 25 points in 7-of-13 shooting while going 10-of-11 from the free-throw line. Tyler Bilodeau also had a big night with 20 points and six rebounds. Dexter Akanno rounded out the double-digit scoring for the Beavers with 18 points. As a team, the Beavers shot 51 percent from the floor overall and over 40 percent from the line.

Rating: 3 Units

SC has been quite the surprise this season, going from 11-21 / 4-14 last year to 24-6 / 12-5 this campaign. Meanwhile, Mississippi State sits in mid-pack with an 8-9 conference ledger and a loss here tags head coach Chris Jans with his second straight 8-10 effort in two seasons in Starkville. Even so, we’ve got some good stuff in our corner with the Bulldogs today. For openers, MSU is 27-12- ATS at home coming off a previous home loss, including 22-6-1 against foes that are not coming off a loss of more than 7 points. Next, it’s Senior Day at The Hump, and with five starters who returned from last year’s squad being honored, the cowbells should be at full volume. And finally, there’s a matter of revenge, as the Bulldogs look to even the score for a 68-62 defeat in Columbia back on January 6. All of this leads to max value on this payback rematch, in addition the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS with revenge in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

Missouri State is playing for the second straight day here as they take the floor looking to advance to the semifinals. The problem for the Bears, other than potential fatigue, is that they have to deal with an Indiana State team that can pile up points in a hurry. We’ve seen Indiana State do a ton of damage on the offensive end as they are deadly inside the arc, from the perimeter and at the charity stripe. While the Bears put up a stellar defensive showing in their win over Murray State, expecting them to slow down the Sycamores the way they handcuffed the Racers is foolhardy. Look for Indiana State to take care of business and punch their ticket to the semifinals with a win here.

Rating: 2 Units

Sitting way back on the ‘Bubble’, the 14-win Bruins (at press time) need every win they can muster, and one or two against ranked foes like the Wildcats. At least UCLA is 9-3 ATS as a dog this season, including 7-1 ATS in Pac12 contests, plus Mick Cronin’s crew is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home dog. There’s also a revenge factor at work here in favor of the Bruins: Arizona edged UCLA at home earlier this season, and the desert Cats are a flimsy 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS the last six games in the series when UCLA has same-season revenge. Yep, we’ll be on the take tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Iowa State is ranked No. 2 in the nation in Turnover Margin (+6.8), No. 8 in Defensive Points Per game (62.9), and No. 9 in overall Scoring Margin (+15). BYU arrives in Ames off a Saturday homer versus TCU, and the Cougars could still have their heads in the clouds following their monumental road upset of Kansas last Tuesday. The boys from Provo are 1-3 SUATS in this series, and after beating Iowa State in an earlier meeting at home, 87-82, they will likely pay the price tonight. 

Rating: 2 Units

I'm going with the better record against the spread and the home record in this one. Let's face it, Indiana is not making the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Big 10 Tourney, so this game doesn't mean a whole lot. Minnesota needs to keep winning to have a shot at an at-large bid. This is also a revenge game where Minnesota shot just 3-of-20 from 3-point range and 13-of-24 (54%) from the free-throw line in that first meeting that ended up in a 12-point loss. At home, Minnesota shoots 35.6% from the three-point line and 70% from the free throw line. Indiana struggles to defend the three-point shot (34.8%) on the road.

CBB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Kansas stands 31-1 SU and 17-11 ATS at home off a previous home loss by an average win margin of 20.1 PPG, including 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with same-season revenge. The No. 7 Jayhawks have the weapons to do the job again tonight, ranking No. 4 in the land in Offensive Field Goal Percentage, just a bit under 50%. That fits just right with Kansas State’s 2-5 ATS record versus revenge-seeking foes this season (Kansas lost to K-State by 5 points in early February). Consider that Kansas State is 1-14 SUATS in its series against Kansas when the Jayhawks sport a sub .770 win percentage. Finally, Kansas is 5-0 SUATS in this series when seeking revenge from a same-season loss, by an average win margin of more than 15 PPG

Rating: 2 Units

The Bears are 15-5 SUATS in this series, including 14-2 ATS when Texas sports a greater than .555 win percentage, plus they’re 11-3 SUATS in games versus sub .720 foes this season, including 4-0 SUATS in Big 12 games. Yes, the Longhorns are an 18-win squad, but they’ve been major money burners this year, going 9-18-1 ATS at press time. NOTE: Texas owned a 3-14 ATS record this season in games following a win before hosting Oklahoma State on Saturday, and if Bevo banished the Cowboys, tonight’s game becomes an even stronger play on UT. The bottom line is Baylor has the look and feel of a team ready to make a lot of noise during March Madness. It starts tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

This seems like a big spread, but Colorado dominated Stanford the last time these teams met in Colorado (February 5, 2023) when they earned a 22-point victory. In addition, not only have they defeated Stanford in eight of the last 10 meetings, but they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Cardinals have lost five straight games, and they have lost each of those contests against the spread as well. The Buffaloes have not been great against the spread recently as well (2-6-0), but they have proven they can handle Stanford.

Rating: 2 Units

At first glance, this seems like a big number, but Nebraska has been taking care of business at home recently and winning by double digits. Their last three home games included an 18-point win against Minnesota, a 19-point win over Penn State and a 20-point win over Michigan. Rutgers is another unranked team playing on the road, and their 275th-ranked offense will not be able to produce much against Nebraska's 30th ranked defense. Rutgers' offense is by far the worst-ranked unit in the game, Jeremiah Williams doesn't shoot from the outside, and Omoruyi can only score around the bucket. Nebraska has four players averaging 11.9 PPG or more, they can score inside and out, especially with Tominaga on the perimeter and Mast inside. Rutgers looked good against Michigan, but so has every team in the league, in their previous game they lost by 17 to Maryland and only managed 46 points on offense. Nebraska has more to play for as they will find their way into the tournament and will win comfortably here.

Rating: 2 Units

Ohio State is heating up, motivated for revenge against their rivals, and desperate to win this game for any chance of dancing. Michigan is 2-8 on the road and amid a six-game losing streak. Each defeat during this slide came by double figures. The Wolverines allow 81.7 points per game on the road, so the Buckeyes will feast offensively. Michigan has only reached 70 points once during this losing streak. Ohio State's season average for points allowed is 69.9, so that stretch should continue. Expect the Buckeyes to beat Michigan by at least 15.

Rating: 2 Units

This should be fun, but the Crimson Tide get their revenge at home where they are 13-1. Alabama shot just 4-of-21 (19%) from beyond the arc in that first meeting. Their backcourt of Sears and Estrada shot just 11 of 21 and turned the ball over nine times combined. Expect Alabama to shoot much better considering they are at home, where they shoot 41.1% from beyond the arc. Tennessee struggles to defend the three-point shot on the road (37.2%) and will lose their first game in March.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

As we’ve alluded to previously, MSU was ranked No. 4 in the AP Preseason Top 25 poll, its highest ranking since 2020. And at 17-11 and residing in sixth place in the Big Ten entering this contest, they’ve certainly underperformed this campaign. That makes them a dangerous ‘Bubble Team’ here, playing with a double revenge chip on their shoulder from a pair of losses laid on them by the Boilermakers last season. No doubt that Purdue is one of the nation’s most talented teams and that head coach Matt Painter’s troops want to make amends for last year’s embarrassing first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament, but the Boilers are just 0-3 SUATS in this series when MSU is seeking double revenge from the previous season. Purdue has not performed well this year against avenging Big Ten foes coming off a loss, going just 3-6 ATS, and the Boilermakers might be looking ahead to Tuesday night’s huge road trip to Illinois. Finally, playing on the Michigan State Spartans from Game 20 out if they're coming off an ATS loss of 9 or more points and are seeking revenge in a conference game is 13-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

The No. 11 Tigers (21-7, 10-5) led No. 4 Tennessee by eight points midway through the second half before losing 92-84 in a road game that featured 12 lead changes on Wednesday night. The Tigers are tied for fourth in the SEC with Kentucky and Florida, two games ahead of Mississippi State. Auburn has alternated wins and losses in its last six games. The last time it had consecutive wins or losses was a three-game winning streak that began after a 64-58 loss at Mississippi State on Jan. 27.

Rating: 2 Units

The Stony Brook Seawolves, with a 16-14 overall record and positioning seventh in the Coastal Athletic Association, have displayed a resilient and competitive spirit throughout the season. Their recent clash against Drexel, although ending in a 90-86 road loss, was a hard-fought battle that highlighted the Seawolves' tenacity and skill. Despite the defeat, Stony Brook's performance in this game underscored their offensive capabilities and their never-say-die attitude, as they pushed a higher-ranked team to the brink. This game served as a microcosm of their season, reflecting their ability to compete at a high level, even in the face of adversity.

Rating: 2 Units

George Mason head coach Tony Skinn is aware that the Patriots are 17-6 SU and 12-7 ATS at home when coming off a pair of losses, including 10-2 ATS in games in which Georgie sports the better record. Duquesne won 20 games last year and went to the CBI Tournament, and the Dukes just avenged a conference tourney loss when they beat La Salle 75-63 on Wednesday. unfortunately, they are just 2-9 ATS when coming off a win of 6-plus points this season. The Pats are a solid 13-2 at EagleBank Arena with an average winning margin of 12.2 PPG

Rating: 3 Units

St. Joe’s did not qualify for postseason play last year following an exit in the conference tourney quarterfinals and the Hawks finished the campaign at 16-17, no thanks to a pair of losses laid on them by Fordham. The Rams won 24 games last season under promoted first-year head coach Keith Urgo but have felt the cold sting of reality this year, going 12-16 and just 3-8 SUATS when coming off a win. The Rams’ highly distasteful 1-14 ATS ledger the past two seasons in outright conference losses as an underdog is also a major concern. We’ve always been fans of 5-returning starter teams looking for revenge. Finally, St. Joseph’s is 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS in this series, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS when Joe’s owns a .500 or better win percentage.

Rating: 2 Units

Providence is 10-2 with an average winning margin of 10.4 PPG. The Friars will also be looking for some payback from Villanova after the Wildcats rolled in their first meeting earlier this season, 68-50, and they take the court today boasting a 12-1 ATS record with same-season revenge from a loss of 9-plus points in this series, including 9-0 ATS at home. Nova is only 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS away this campaign.

Rating: 2 Units

Fresno State has lost four straight games, while Nevada has won four straight games. There is a time to fade the trends, but there is also a time to realize why the trends are happening in the first place. Fresno State is down this year, the Mountain West is a tough conference, and they are struggling to keep up. Fresno only won four league games so far this season, and San Diego State just beat them by 32 points in a game played on Fresno's home court. The Bulldogs are started to sense the end of the season, as one loss in the conference tourney will wrap up their year. Nevada has everything to play for, they are on the right side of the bubble, and need every convincing win they can get at this point to strengthen their case for the Big Dance. It looks like Fresno will be without their big man Boakye, which will leave a huge hole in the middle defensively. Nevada has the best player in this game in Lucas, and has the most motivation as their season is far from over.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a small line for the much better team to cover. Dayton is ranked 25th overall in KenPom, 21st in the AP Top 25, and are the only team in the A-10 who looks like a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Dayton also has something else Loyola Chicago doesn't; a 6'10 future NBA player in their frontcourt. Holmes is a problem for all Atlantic 10 teams, he leads the conference in scoring and is third in rebounding, and will look to put on a show on national television. Dayton took two unexpected losses recently, but that will only refocus this team that still ranks 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago will have a difficult time keeping up, as their offense is the worst unit in the game ranking in at 183rd in the country. Loyola Chicago had a winning streak against some of the weaker teams in the conference, but they are now running into a powerhouse. Dayton is motivated to improve their league record, because they want to ensure that if they do not win the A-10 Tournament, they still get a spot in the Big Dance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Utes will certainly be glad be back in Salt Lake City after a trio of road games, and also to make amends for a pair of previous losses at the Huntsman Center where they are 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in this role since 2016. And when we see that Utah dropped a 79-73 contest to Stanford as small road chalk earlier this season – and were also sent packing from the Pac-12 tourney two seasons ago – we think head coach Craig Smith has had just about enough. It helps Utah’s cause that the Cardinal are 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in this series, including 0-3-1 ATS when the Utes are playing with the revenge chip. It also helps that Stanford has a revenger with Oregon State on deck and the Cardinal are just 1-7 ATS away before the battling the Beavers. Two teams that were neck and neck in the conference race should shake out with the Running Utes gaining the upper hand.

Rating: 2 Units

Talk about instant karma: this is just who the No. 4 Wildcats need to be crossing paths with at this time of the season as they bring an 0-10 ATS series log into contests in games after they beat the Sun Devils by 17 or more points. Bad ‘before and afters’ sound the alarm on the visitors, too, as they arrive off a Saturday game against Washington (2-6 ATS in U-Dub follow-ups) with dangerous Oregon on deck after tonight’s clash (1-5 ATS in games before going Duck hunting). The desert Devils ain’t much, standing 13-13 and tied with three others sporting 7-8 records in conference play, but they are rested with this being the third of a three-game homestand (25-15 ATS as a dog in this role). Realistically, ASU will need a deep run into the Pac-12 tourney to even sniff an invite to the Big Dance, so this becomes their championship game of the year. The Sun Devils are 2-0 ATS as home dogs this season and 10-5 ATS as a home dog of 6-plus points. 

Rating: 2 Units

After upsetting Tennessee 85-69 on February 10, the Aggies took a three game losing skein into Knoxville on Saturday as they continue to unravel after a smart 5-0 start to the season. South Carolina is 6-1 SUATS the last seven games in this series – the loss coming in their final meeting last season – and this 21-win squad has come a long way since winning only 11 games behind first-year head coach Lamont Paris last year. The former UT-Chattanooga mentor brings a super-sharp 18-8 ATS log this season into this payback while A&M can muster only a 2-7 ATS record against avenging conference opponents during the same time span. A win tonight by the Cocks keeps them hot on the heels of current SEC leaders Alabama, Tennessee and Auburn.

Rating: 2 Units

The Iowa State Cyclones have steadily become one of the best teams in college basketball, they have won five of their last six games, with their only loss coming to #2 Houston on the road. The Cyclones are alone in second place in the conference, ahead of typical powerhouses in Kansas and Baylor. In their last game, they were heavy favorites over West Virginia, it was closer than expected as West Virginia led with nine minutes left before Iowa State pulled ahead. The Cyclones were led by guard Tamin Lipsey with 14 points and six assists in the win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Jayhawks sent a message over the weekend, dominating a tough Texas team at home. Now, they get to host a BYU team that doesn't travel well. The Cougars are 2-6 (1-7-0 ATS) on the road, and that won't improve today. Their offense only shoots 42.3% in away games (29.6% from three-point range), which will leave them frustrated against a Kansas defense that's one of the nation's best at forcing misses. The Cougars allow almost 80 points per game on the road, a number that the Jayhawks should breeze by. Expect Kansas to win convincingly again.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hoosiers return to Assembly Hall after embarrassingly have dropped each of their previous three home games and the last time that same scenario played out three years ago, Indiana upended Iowa as a 3-point home dog. In fact, Indiana is 4-0 SUATS in this role as a pick or dog of three or fewer points, and 12-5-1 ATS as a home dog when seeking revenge (lost to Wisconsin by 12 points in most recent meeting). Pay attention to the line as Indiana should come off your playlist if favored as the Hoosiers have lost their last three games outright when laying points. The Badgers head into this contest off a revenge scrum against Maryland with another revenge contest against Illinois on deck, so it will be all coach Greg Gard can do to keep his team from falling to 6-14-1 ATS against foes seeking same-season revenge from a loss of 7-plus points.

Rating: 2 Units

Fortunately, one of our favorite handicapping principles is in play here as the Wildcats take the floor knowing they are 22-1 SU in the last twenty-three regular season meetings in this series. And if they are taking points they are 3-0 ATS as a dog in the series – which would make them a DIA DIA dog (Dogs In Action – Doing It Again). It also doesn’t hurt knowing that Coach Cal (John Calipari) is a long-term 91-61-4 ATS in games in which his teams are not laying points, including 34-18-1 ATS when his troops sport the better record. Hail State got bounced in the First Four of last year’s NCAA tourney and thanks to the return of 5 starters, the Bulldogs are still within striking distance at the regular season plays out. However, they’re just 3-6 SUATS the last nine game versus foes with a better record.

Rating: 2 Units

Baylor was also an AP preseason Top 20 ranked team this season, and we look for a season-ending super surge to start here for the No. 11 Bears. They enter off a showdown against conference bear Houston knowing they are 3-0 outright in games following the Cougars. And despite dropping a recent 105-103 triple overtime decision in Waco to the Frogs, the Bears bring a 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS ledger in this series into this rematch. Baylor also stands 14-8 ATS away with revenge in Big 12 play and rank in the nation’s Top 15 of Offensive Field Goal Percentage. Not so for TCU, who was just 2-3 in the month of February before Saturday’s same-season revenge contest against Cincinnati. The bottom line is with Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech on tap for Baylor’s stretch run, the Bears cannot afford a loss tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota's lengthy winning streak ATS is finally destined to end. Nebraska needs this game for their NCAA Tournament hopes, wants this game for revenge, and is playing well right now with their three straight wins. The Huskers also have an impeccable 16-1 (13-4-0 ATS) record on their home floor. Nebraska has better ball security, which will help them a lot. Minnesota allows 37.4% three-point shooting on the road and 25.4 free throw attempts. The Cornhuskers convert 36.3% of their threes and 75.7% of their free throws. Expect Nebraska to beat the spread in a winning effort.

CBB Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

This is  Tom Izzo’s time of the season and with his troops sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble, it’s important to remember that last year Izzo became the first men's basketball head coach in history to lead his team to 25 straight NCAA Tournament appearances. Just days before that record-setting appearance was confirmed, though, the Spartans were bounced, 68-58, in the first round of the Big Ten tourney by the Buckeyes last season, so you know exactly where their focus will be today. After edging Rutgers in the conference opener in January, the Buckeyes have been falling faster than the autumn leaves, going just 3-8 outright since – one of the reasons former head coach Chris Holtmann was issued a pink slip. Even worse for OSU today, the Buckeyes are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in this series with a sub .580 win percentage, including 0-3 SUATS when Sparty is coming off a loss. After suffering a costly home loss to Iowa last Tuesday, we look for Izzo to rally his troops again. Finally, playing on Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo at home with 3+ days of rest from Game 20 out in a conference game when seeking revenge against a sub .714 opponent. is 18-0 SU and 15-2-1 ATS.

Rating: 2 Units

Revenge will be a real factor on Saturday, as the Volunteers got smacked by the Aggies a few weeks ago. Tennessee is also trailing Alabama by one game in the SEC standings, so they can't afford to slip up now. Expect the Volunteers to send a message on their home floor this weekend. They will shoot much better than 37.1% (27.6% from three) now that the game is in Knoxville. The Aggies shot 46.7% (39.3% from deep) in the first meeting, far above their season averages. Tennessee's defense is elite, so that game was an outlier. Anticipate a blowout that sends the home fans streaming out with smiles tonight.

NCAAB Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Self stands 57-8 SU and 44-20-1 ATS with conference loss revenge, including 25-2 SU and 2-5 ATS versus .666 or fewer foes, and Kansas is 6-1-1 ATS in this series with a revenge chip on their shoulder, including 3-0 SUATS at home by an average win margin of 21 points per game. Enter Texas, who has seen an 11-2 season start head south after going only 6-7 since conference play began in January, including 1-5 SUATS when coming off a win. The 19-7 Longhorns did manage to bounce back from a 21-point rout by Houston to edge Kansas State on Monday, 62-56, but it was not enough to keep Bevo from falling out of this week’s AP poll. Texas is a poor 10-24 ATS in outright losses as a road dog against revenge-seeking opponents. Finally, Kansas is 6-0 SUATS playing with LTKO (League Tournament Knock Out) revenge when facing a sub .740 foe.

Rating: 2 Units

Rating: 2 Units