Rating; 2 Units

The Phillies have won eight of their last 10 games and three of their last five road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 17 runs in their last three road games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Musgrove has been shaky on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up six runs in his last start against the Phillies and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Padres have lost two of their last three home games. They struggled offensively during that stretch, scoring only six runs. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Nola has been dominant on the mound in recent starts, giving up five runs in his last four starts. He gave up four runs in his last two starts against the Padres and will keep their offense in check once again. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Tampa Bay Rays have not been at their best but this is a great spot to gain some confidence against the worst squad in baseball. The Chicago White Sox are rarely winning games, dropping nine of their last ten games. They could be on the way to 110 defeats this season. The Rays have Zach Eflin on the mound. The veteran has been dominant, posting 12.1 scoreless innings in his last two performances including a gem against the Yankees. He has conceded zero or one run in three of his last four outings. Chris Flexen has been shaky. He has been solid out of the 'pen but has surrendered 13 runs in 13.1 innings in his three starts this season.

Rating: 2 Units

If Demko was healthy for this game, the Canucks would be favored and likely would be up 2-0 in the series. Instead, he’s banged up and coach Rick Tocchet has said that DeSmith is going to be between the pipes for this contest. We saw how he struggled in the opener, stopping 12 of 15 shots before the empty net goal that closed the scoring. Vancouver was down a goal 74 seconds into the game and never managed to get even the rest of the way. With the backup goaltender between the pipes, Vancouver can’t be as freewheeling offensively as they usually are. Look for Nashville to feed off their home crowd and take Game 3 to earn the series lead.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have clashed seven times since November. Indiana is 5-2, including a 2-0 home record, because they've scored more than 120 points in all but one of those meetings. Considering that the Bucks have only scored more than 115 points once in April (117 on April 10), this game does not bode well for them. As is, Milwaukee has plenty of issues on the road, hence their 18-22 (16-24-0 ATS) record in away games. With a cold offense, no Giannis Antetokounmpo, and a defense that can't contain the Pacers, the Bucks are in danger. Milwaukee's weak offensive rebounding also doesn't challenge Indiana's awful defensive rebounding, an area where they could get points back. Take the Pacers to win by more than five points again now that this series is in Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Rating: 2 Units

Lugo has been outstanding thus far with four quality starts of his five starts. He's kept the ball on the ground, thus avoiding big innings despite giving up 30 hits in 31 innings of work. He will benefit from a Tigers team that has not hit the ball well at home and keep them in the park thanks to the daunting dimensions at Comerica Park as well as the ability to keep the ball on the ground. The Royals have shown surprising pop despite a relatively no-name lineup this season. They have 28 home runs but, more importantly, they can generate runs with a lineup that has some speed to complement the power. Olson has yet to win a game this season, has a WHIP of 1.45, and has given up more hits than innings pitched thus far. Look for the Royals to generate runs with speed and execution and Lugo to once again stay out of the big inning.

Rating: 2 Units

It is truly now or never for the Sixers in game three at home vs. the Knicks. This should be an angry bunch after coughing up a five-point lead in the final 30 seconds of the game on Monday night. The Sixers can blame the refs but they also know that they were dominated on the glass and physically dominated down the stretch. The Sixers' defensive strategy against Brunson has worked brilliantly and the Sixers have held the Knicks offense in check overall. Back at home, I expect the Sixers to get better performances out of the likes of Oubre and Harris to ease the burden of Maxey and Embiid to lead the Sixers to win. Batum should also have a stronger game after being limited offensively in the first two games. The Knicks have been a bit lucky in the first two games, losing in each game before rallying to victory. 

Rating: 2 Units

Both goaltenders have played well in this series. The Panthers are just getting more shots on goal in the series, and the result has been them taking two, one-goal victories. The series has been close though and should continue to be so. The Lightning are now at home, where they have been much better. That will be the difference in game three, as they get the win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Magic lost Suggs for nearly all of game two, but he's ready to play in game three. If he's close enough to 100 percent healthy, he'll give Orlando a capable defender to chase Mitchell and a three-point threat on offense. I expect he and Gary Harris to play much better in today's environment, providing a boost for the home team. With reliable performances from complementary players, Orlando will figure it out offensively. Protecting the paint on defense is another key, as Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen have scored too many easy buckets at the rim. Considering how poorly the Cavs have shot the three-ball in both games, reducing rim scoring is crucial.

Rating: 2 Units

Colorado's downfall is on the mound as the Rockies are 30th or last in each of the following: ERA, WHIP and batting average allowed. The Rockies cannot offset that poor pitching with hitting as Colorado is just 14th in batting average and 20th in slugging percentage, while producing 88 runs which is only 23rd. San Diego on the other hand has the eighth best team batting average and has scored the seventh most runs, while carrying the 10th best slugging percentage. On the mound, San Diego holds its own with the 10th best team ERA and 14th best batting average allowed at just .234. San Diego starting pitcher Randy Vasquez is just 0-1, but has a 1.80 ERA after allowing just one earned run in five innings last Saturday versus Toronto but the Padres played poorly in the field as San Diego gave up three unearned runs while Vasquez was on the mound. Colorado starting pitcher Dakota Hudson has been hit hard in each of the last three starts allowing a combined 12 runs in just 14 innings and needless to say Colorado lost each of the three games.

Rating: 2 Units

Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) hasn't allowed a run in his last three outings covering 19 2/3 innings. His overall scoreless-innings streak stands at 21 2/3 innings. After posting three consecutive wins, Berrios is off to the best start of his career. In 21 career starts against the Royals, Berrios is 7-5 with a 4.72 ERA, most recently going seven innings and allowing two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts in a 5-2 win on Sept. 10, 2023. Berrios has held Salvador Perez to a .200 average with just three extra-base hits -- all doubles -- in 40 at-bats. Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32 ERA) will take the ball for Kansas City today. The left-hander recorded just five outs while matching a career high with seven runs allowed on nine hits in a 9-7 loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday.

Rating: 2 Units

Peralta (2-0, 1.90 ERA) will hope to limit the bullpen's workload on Thursday. He is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 20 career appearances, 11 starts, against Pittsburgh. In his past two outings combined, Peralta has allowed just one run on nine hits in 12 innings, with two walks and 18 strikeouts. Right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller (2-2, 4.80 ERA) is expected to get the nod on the mound for the Pirates. Keller is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in six career starts against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Oilers controlled Game One and I see them dominating this game on both ends of the ice. The Oilers, who averaged 3.56 goals per game this season, should pile on the goals with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with quick passes. The Oilers also look to limit the Kings' offense with Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers at the blue line and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Stuart Skinner to make plenty of big saves. The Oilers should win the game and cover the spread with a strong performance on their home ice to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.

Rating: 2 Units

There wasn’t a whole lot to write home about offensively in Game 1 for either side. Both teams shot below 45% from the field and under 33% from beyond the arc. There has to be some positive regression for both teams in this contest but the fact remains that New Orleans is going to have to control the glass as they did in Game 1 to keep them in the mix. Oklahoma City has the best player on the floor with Gilgeous-Alexander and if their youth shakes off the rough shooting night in the opening game of the series, they should take the victory at home. With that said, expect the Pelicans to keep it close and cover the line. Straight up, the Thunder are the call but getting this many points after hanging tough in the opener, take the Pelicans with the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Twins have won three of their last five home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three home games. They will play well offensively in this game because Crochet has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 14 runs in his last three starts. He gave up nine runs in his two road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost five of their last six road games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only seven runs in their last four games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are batting under .200 against right-handers and Ryan has done a good job on the mound for the Twins, giving up 11 runs in four starts. He gave up six runs in three starts against the White Sox, and with Minnesota having the fourth-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Chicago’s offense in check. 

Rating: 2 Units

Sox need a bullpen game and could be without Casas and possibly Devers. Carrasco fared well enough in his last start and while pitching against the same club in consecutive outings can be challenging, the Sox haven't had enough continuity in their lineup to expect an improved performance this time around. Besides, the veteran righty has looked much better since returning in 2024 and has an elite bullpen backing him up. Cleveland's pen sports a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the most Ks and fewest HR allowed. The Guardians will string together enough hits against Boston's group of relievers to outlast them at home. They rank fifth in hits, sixth in total bases, and ninth in stolen bases per game this year. They're crushing lefty pitchers (.304/.365/.469/.834) and have performed well under the lights (.267/.333/.434/.767), as well. 16-6 both straight-up and against the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Montgomery (1-0, 1.50 ERA) won his first start for Arizona over the San Francisco Giants on Friday. He will make his second today as the Diamondbacks face the St. Louis Cardinals to close their three-game road series. The Cardinals won the series opener 5-3 on Monday and the Diamondbacks rolled to a 14-1 victory Tuesday. Montgomery, who spent the bulk of last season with the Cardinals before his trade to the Texas Rangers, went six innings in his first start for the Diamondbacks. He held the Giants to one run on four hits while striking out three and walking nobody. The Cardinals will start Kyle Gibson (1-2, 5.04), who delivered a quality start in his last outing, a 2-1, 10-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. Gibson allowed one run on three hits and four walks over six innings while getting in sync with catcher Willson Contreras. He is 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA in six career starts against the Diamondbacks.

Rating: 2 Units

The Avalanche look to even up the series but the Jets look to step up at home and control this game. The Jets, who averaged 3.16 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Jets, who allowed only 2.41 goals per game, should limit the Avalanche offense with Dylan DeMelo, Josh Morrissey, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to make plenty of big saves. The Jets should win the game to take a commanding series lead.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are trending in opposite directions, and the same could be said for the starting pitchers. The Orioles are hot, they have won six of their last seven games, and lead the major leagues in home runs with 33 home runs. They have four more home runs than the team in second place, the Red Sox. The Orioles generate runs at a high level, they rank 5th in the majors in run production. The Angels have not fared so well, they have lost four straight, including getting swept by the Reds. The Angels are only 20th in run production, and have not been putting up the same numbers as Baltimore. The Orioles will start Rodriguez here, they are 4-0 in his starts. In the other dugout, the Angels are starting Canning, and they are 0-4 in his starts. There pitching stats gives a big edge to the Orioles, as Rodriguez has 11 more strikeouts, has given up two fewer home runs, and has a much better ERA at 2.64, while Cannings is 8.05.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colorado offense has stalled out, and will have a tough time keeping up with San Diego's offense in this one. The Rockies have only generated four runs over the past three games combined, and are taking on the Padres who are in the top ten in runs scored, home runs and batting average as a team. It is a landslide in almost all statistical categories, the Padres have outscored the Rockies 118-80 this season, with ten more home runs, and a much lower ERA. The Rockies have the worst ERA in all of baseball at 5.88, as the thin Denver air is hurting them more than it helps. Colorado's starter Feltner has an ERA over 5, and will struggle to get out of innings against Tatis, Machado and company. Michael King has been far better on the mound, even in his only loss he struck out ten batters and only allowed two hits. San Diego will cruise an an easy victory here.

Rating: 2 Units

Indiana's offense rarely gets held under 110 points, let alone 100. Game one was a welcome to the postseason for them, but they should be the same team that haunted the Bucks all regular season. As for Milwaukee, their offense's inability to score 110 points again is concerning. In a matchup that features two heavily offensive-minded squads, the Pacers are more trustworthy right now. Milwaukee can't take advantage of arguably Indiana's greatest defensive weakness, rebounding. Expect the Pacers to bounce back with a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Panthers look to take a commanding series lead but the Lightning look to bounce back and take over this game from the first period. The Lightning, who averaged 3.51 goals per game this season, should create plenty of scoring chances with Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Lightning should limit the Panthers' offense with Victor Hedman and Mathew Dumba stepping up at the blue line and cutting off angels to the net on the rush while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to make plenty of big saves. The Lightning should win the game to even up the series. 

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland has been playing much better since its 1-7 start to the season. It gutted out a clutch win on Monday with just four hits, holding New York scoreless with zero extra-base hits. Now, it turns to Blackburn, who has been rock solid in 2024 and has fared well against the Yankees in the past. Plus, the Yankees are slashing just .227/.335/.351/.686 at home and really need Aaron Judge (.174 BA and 31 Ks in 86 ABs) to break out of his slump soon. With Stroman on the bump, I like Oakland's odds of at least keeping the final score close. The Yankees' starter got off to a solid start but wasn't as sharp in his last two appearances, putting eight runners on base in each outing. He gave up a home run in each of these starts and fanned just two Blue Jays in his last appearance. The A's may not be the most intimidating offense, but they're playing with some confidence. As long as Blackburn can give his team six innings of quality pitching, I like the value of a bet on the A's.

Rating; 2 Units

The Los Angeles Lakers needed to beat the Pelicans in the play-in round just to get to this series. They were outmatched in game one. The Lakers struggled against the Nuggets this season, dropping all three meetings. These were not close games. All three defeats were by eight or more points and they dropped game one by 11 points. These combatants met in the conference finals last year with the Nuggets earning the dominating sweep. Denver has now beaten the Lakers in each of the last nine meetings. The Lakers rely on the scoring to win games but Denver has the better offensive rating and is the superior defensive squad by a big margin. Anthony Davis is not going to have his usual success considering he is up against Nikola Jokic. Davis only averaged nine boards against the Nuggets this season. Jokic averaged 29 points against the Lakers and scored 32 points in game one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Stars have won seven of their last eight home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than three goals per game at home. They’ve also played well on special teams, converting over 24 percent of their power play opportunities. The Golden Knights are good at killing penalties, but they’ve struggled defensively, giving up 16 goals in their last three road games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Stars in this game. The Golden Knights have lost three straight road games and four of their last six road games. They have struggled offensively, scoring only eight goals in their last three road games. They’ve done a better job on special teams, converting over 20 percent of their power play opportunities. The Stars have killed over 80 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up only five goals in their last three home games, so expect them to keep Vegas’ offense in check. Go with Dallas to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Grayson Rodriguez bullied the Angels in his season debut on March 30. He punched out nine across six frames while giving up just an earned run on four hits and a walk. Since then, Rodriguez has allowed two earned runs in each of his next three starts. On the other side, Reid Detmers met the O’s on the last day of March and fanned seven across five innings. He emerged victorious, allowing one earned run on two hits and three walks. Detmers has been outstanding so far this season, and Rodriguez has been nothing short of spectacular, too. I’m backing the Orioles to come out on top because of their offense. Baltimore has been killing the southpaws over the last ten days, posting a ridiculous 259 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances (.444/.474/.750 triple-slash).

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have not been winning many games this season, and they are not going to win games in back to back days, especially while taking on San Diego. The Padres have far more offensive firepower, they have big name stars in Tatis and Machado, as well as up and comers who have been producing in Profar and Merrill. The pitching edge goes to San Diego here, Cease has 27 strikeouts to just 11 walks while giving up only one home run, while Gomber only has 18 strikeouts and has given up four home runs in the same amount of starts. Even with their recent struggles, the Padres are still sixth in the majors in home runs. and the Rockies are dead last in team ERA at 6.06. San Diego gets back on track and opens up this series with a big win.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08 ERA) will take the mound to open the series. In seven career starts against the Royals, Kikuchi is 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA, earning the lone win on April 4, 2023, while allowing a run on three hits over five innings. Hunter Renfroe has a home run among three hits in five at-bats against Kikuchi. Right-hander Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA) will start for Kansas City today. Singer is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Blue Jays, having won the most recent outing on April 3, 2023, while allowing a run on two hits in five innings. Varsho has a home run in five at-bats against Singer. The Royals have won all four of Singer's 2024 starts as he has allowed no more than two runs in any outing. All four runs allowed over 23 1/3 innings scored on homers. Singer's .163 opponent batting average ranks third in the American League. The development of a split-change has helped him induce more weak contact.

Rating: 2 Units

I'm going to lean on the Bruins again in game two. The goalie change should benefit a Bruins team that has stuck by the platoon goalie system in each of the last two regular seasons and has the most points in the NHL in that time. Ullmark, the defending Vezina Trophy winner, is certainly not a step down from Swayman and may benefit from actually watching the action in game one and seeing Swayman in action. The Bruins let up more shots than they are used to giving up in game one but some of that may be due to the desperation of the Leafs in the latter stages of the game after falling behind. The Bruins, as is their strength, took fewer shots overall but more quality shots. Leafs' goalie Samsonov is far from elite and did give up a couple of easy goals in this game. The Leafs will not win many if any, games if they score under three goals in this series. The Bruins should be able to once again control the pace, get ahead early, and dominate the neutral zone to pick up a 2-0 lead in this series.

Rating: 2 Units

It says a lot that the team with the higher seed and home-court advantage is the underdog in this one. Indiana had their number all season long. Also, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the best player in this series for either team, is unlikely to suit up for the Bucks due to a calf injury. Milwaukee's main issue is that they can't exploit Indiana's weak defensive rebounding. The Pacers' offense is too explosive and efficient to let those opportunities slip. That's without accounting for the fact that the Bucks' defense isn't much better. Take Indiana to beat the tight spread in game one.

Rating: 2 Units

Not having Leonard is a massive blow to the Clippers and without their top defender, it means they'll have issues slowing down the Doncic-Irving combination. Adding in that Harden is probable but battling an injury, means they could be without another key scorer too. Dallas has leaned heavily on the three-point shot, which translates well to the road and against the Clippers, who have taken a back seat on the defensive end. Before the back-to-back losses to end the season, Dallas had covered the spread in seven of their previous eight games, as they return to that trend to kickoff the playoffs.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have won two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because Varland hasn’t looked good on the mound for the Twins, giving up 15 runs in three starts. He gave up six runs in his last start against the Tigers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Twins have lost six of their last eight games. They have struggled offensively and scored nine runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are batting under .200 against right-handers and Mize has been solid on the mound, giving up seven runs in three starts. He gave up five runs in two road starts and with Detroit having the best bullpen in the league, they will keep Minnesota’s offense in check. Go with Detroit to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Stripling hasn’t earned a win in the majors since the 2022 campaign as he was 0-5 with the Giants last season ahead of being 0-4 this year. The A’s have hung tough early on this season and have been better than expected in the early going. Cleveland got the win in the opening game of this series as they were solid with runners in scoring position, going four of seven in those situations. The Guardians have had a lot of success in the early going this season and if Bibee can throw more strikes than he has in the early going, Cleveland should be in good shape here. Look for the Guardians to earn the victory in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia will hand the ball to right-hander Aaron Nola (2-1, 3.47 ERA), who will have a tough act to follow after Zach Wheeler flirted with a no-hitter on Saturday. Against the Rockies last Monday, Nola gave up four hits and one run with nine strikeouts and one walk over 7 1/3 innings. He did not factor into the decision as the Phillies won 2-1 in 10 innings. The White Sox will turn to right-hander Nick Nastrini (0-1, 3.60 ERA) on the mound. Nola is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in one career start against the White Sox. Despite scoring five runs in the ninth inning Saturday, the White Sox still fell to 3-17 for the worst 20-game start in franchise history.

MLB Free Pick - Tampa Bay at NYY

Although they are 14-7 in their first 21 games, the Yankees are 2-4 in their past six games. During that span, New York had a four-run ninth in Wednesday's 6-4 victory at Toronto, then put together a five-run seventh on Friday. Right-hander Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.74 ERA), who has completed six innings in three of his first four starts of the season, concludes the series for the Rays. Civale last pitched on Tuesday, when he took a no-decision after allowing three runs on five hits in six innings of Tampa Bay's 7-6 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Civale was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians ahead of last season's trade deadline. Yankee starter, Right-hander Luis Gil (0-1, 3.86) hopes he can display better command of the strike zone when he makes his 11th career start on Sunday. Gil has walked 14 in 14 innings across his first three outings. He issued seven free passes in five innings on Monday, also allowing three runs and three hits while taking a loss against the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Rating: 2 Units

The offense was great but the defense led the Panthers all season, allowing only 2.41 goals per game. Gustav Forsling and Niko Mikkola combined for 12.5 defensive point shares and 226 blocked shots while Aaron Ekblad, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Dmitry Kulikov combined for 12.3 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky put together a remarkable season with a .915 save percentage and a 2.37 goals-against average on 1584 shots with 18.1 goals saved above average.

Rating: 2 Units

Who will start in net for the Bruins may not be as big a factor as it may appear. Both Swayman and Ullmark are above-average goalies and either gives the Bruins a significant edge over Toronto's #1 goalie Illya Samsonov. Samsonov finished 38th in the NHL in GAA this season and just 45th in save percentage this season. Both Ullmark and Swayman finished in the top 10 in save percentage this season. Toronto has a huge edge offensively but Boston will have the advantage of the return of Patrick Maroon from his back surgery near the end of the season. His size and strength could be significant for Boston, particularly in the defensive zone against the likes of Matthews and others. Both teams come into this game cold with the Leafs losing each of their last four games and the Bruins losing three of four. The Bruins do have the edge in the head-to-head matchup having gone 2-0-2 this season against the Leafs and remaining undefeated against them in their last seven meetings. The Bruins will need to protect the puck in their end and be physical with Matthews every chance they get. I'll take the Bruins here thanks to their ability to get quality shots on net, the Leafs struggles protecting the net, and the Bruins dominance in net.

Rating: 2 Units

In four starts, Texas pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has allowed eight runs in 24 ⅔ innings but five of those eight were in just one start, while holding three opponents to just three runs across 18 ⅔ innings. Atlanta starter Charlie Morgan has been roughed up in each of the last two outings, allowing 10 runs in 10 ⅔ innings while striking out 12 but walking six. Atlanta will play without second baseman Ozzie Albies, who thus far this season has five doubles, two home runs and 14 RBIs. Albies production at the plate will be missed in this series with Texas. Texas has won 16 of its last 20 played on the road and the Rangers have won four of the last six played on the road against Atlanta. The Braves have struggled a bit on the mound with a team ERA of 4.41 and WHIP of 1.33. Saturday's starting pitcher for Atlanta, Morton has an ERA that is even higher than the team average at 5.29.

Rating: 2 Units

I fully expect this to be a long series between the two teams. I like the Knicks in game one with what should be a sizable chip on their collective shoulders. The Knicks are relatively healthy coming in with Anunoby back at full strength and their two-headed monster at center, Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson, both ready to go and lean on Embiid as often as possible. The Sixers did a great job at the deadline at adding pieces that will be critical to their playoff success. Hield and Lowry give the team more depth in the backcourt and more bodies to throw at Brunson, who is critical to the Knicks' success. Anunoby and Josh Hart should be able to minimize the effectiveness of the likes of Oubre, Tobias Harris, and even Nicolas Batum. The series may ultimately be decided by the winner of the matchup between Tyrese Maxey and Brunson. In game one, I like Brunson to prevail in that matchup and the Knicks others, like Hart and DiVincenzo, to do enough to tilt this game in their favor.

Rating: 2 Units

Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen has been dominant, allowing zero or one run in three of his four outings this season. He issued six scoreless innings against the Cardinals in his previous outing. The Diamondbacks have won in three of his four starts. Giants’ starter Kyle Harrison is an inexperienced pitcher. He has given up 10 runs in his last 17 innings pitched.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago will turn to right-hander Javier Assad (2-0, 2.16 ERA) for the opener of the twin bill. Assad's latest start was also against Seattle, and he came away with a victory after allowing two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings on Sunday. Assad has never faced Miami in his career. Going up against a pair of pitchers with sub-2.20 ERAs could pose a challenge for the Marlins, who fell to 4-16 on the season with an 8-3 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Miami totaled six hits in the setback, with three of them coming in the ninth inning. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo (0-2, 7.65 ERA) will attempt to keep Chicago at bay in Game 1 of the Saturday doubleheader. Luzardo escaped with a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday despite surrendering five runs and seven hits in five innings.

Rating: 2 Units

With former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes pitching for the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff recovering from shoulder surgery, Freddy Peralta has emerged as Milwaukee's staff ace. Peralta (2-0, 2.55 ERA) has been up to the task while striking out 26 batters and walking two in 17 2/3 innings in three starts. He will face a Cardinals lineup that is failing to generate much offense. The Cardinals have scored three runs or fewer in five straight games and in 10 of their past 11. While Peralta has been on point for the Brewers, Kyle Gibson (1-2, 6.16 ERA) has struggled for the Cardinals since signing as a free agent. He has allowed five homers in 19 innings over his three starts. Gibson took the loss in his last start on Saturday. He allowed four runs on six hits -- including Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s three-run homer -- and three walks in six innings against the Diamondbacks. Gibson is 1-2 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

The surprising A's begin a three-game series and 10-game road trip when they face the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Oakland begins the series on a hot streak after winning seven of its past 11 games, including a 6-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. The Athletics will send rookie right-hander Joe Boyle (1-2, 5.68 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. He allowed one run on five hits and one walk over five innings in a 3-1 loss to the Washington Nationals last Saturday. Boyle, 24, went 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts with the A's last season. He is making his first appearance against the Guardians. Cleveland will counter with right-hander Triston McKenzie (1-2, 6.23), who is looking to bounce back after giving up six runs (five earned) on four hits and six walks over four innings in an 8-2 loss to the New York Yankees last Saturday. The 26-year-old McKenzie has struck out five batters and issued 12 walks in his first three outings covering 13 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat stole a win from the Bulls' clutches in last year's Play-In Tournament and robbed the Bulls of a chance at the playoffs. This season, the Bulls look like a motivated team heading back to South Beach. The potential loss of Butler for the Heat is far more significant than the potential loss of Caruso for the Bulls. While Caruso has been a solid distributor and reliable defender, Butler is the heart and soul of the Heat. Butler nearly carried the Heat to a title last year and his ability to isolate greatly enhanced the play of the Bulls role players. The Bulls will have to lean on Bam Adebayo if Butler is unable to go. He averaged 22 points per game in three games against the Bulls this season. The Bulls have two players that can drive their offense in DeRozan and White. DeRozan averaged 22 points per game vs. the Heat this season and will certainly benefit if Butler is unable to go and defend him. White averaged over 20 points per game vs. the Heat and will either be covered by a banged-up Terry Rozier, who missed the Sixers' game with a sore neck, or possibly Herro, a defensive liability. Chicago would be more exposed without Caruso against a team that plays at a high-level offensively but the Heat are not that team, certainly not without Butler. The Bulls will avenge last year's loss and move on to face the Celtics this weekend.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Jameson Taillon will finally make his season debut today when the host Chicago Cubs open a four-game set with the Miami Marlins. After a strong season with the New York Yankees in 2022, Taillon took a step back with Chicago in 2023, going 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA. He went 4-6 with a 4.62 ERA at home, and only one of those wins came before the All-Star break. Activated from the 15-day injured list on Thursday, Taillon (back) is 2-0 with a glistening 0.54 ERA in three career starts against Miami. Left-hander A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) will try to slow down Busch and the Cubs when he makes his fourth start of the campaign today. Puk had never started a game prior to this season, and he hasn't had a smooth transition into his new role. In each of his first three outings this year, Puk has lasted no longer than 4 2/3 innings, a mark he reached on April 9 in a loss to the New York Yankees. Puk yielded two runs (one earned) on four hits and five walks against New York. Puk is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in four career relief appearances against Chicago.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the value of a bet on the Diamondbacks ML at roughly +150 odds. Webb hasn't been terrible, but he's put too many runners on base this season (17 in his last two starts combined). He isn't striking out a lot of batters, either (five or fewer Ks in all four starts). Arizona has plenty of offensive weapons and is averaging 5.7 runs per game. Given the Giants' struggles on offense, I don't expect Nelson to struggle much. San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last twelve games and is slashing .233/.307/.370/.677 vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Webb may be the bigger name, but I believe Nelson will hold his own. With early run support, he should last long enough to give his tired bullpen a rest. Besides, I'm not confident the Giants will have better luck against the D-Backs' pen. If anything, bettors should be wary of the home team's relief group (5.05 ERA).

Rating: 2 Units

Seattle will face Wild veteran goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. The 39-year-old Fleury was set to become a free agent this offseason, with questions swirling around about his future in recent weeks. Fleury and the team put an end to those questions when the netminder signed a one-year, $2.5 million extension for the 2024-25 season on Wednesday. Fleury is 17-14-5 with a 2.98 goals-against average and a .895 save percentage in 39 games (35 starts) this season. He ranks second all-time with 561 career victories, and he is one of only four goaltenders to appear in at least 1,000 games. Fleury has faced the Kraken seven times in his career. He is 5-1-1 with a 1.98 GAA and a .935 save percentage in those contests. Seattle could turn to Joey Daccord (18-18-11, 2.45 GAA) or Philipp Grubauer (14-16-2, 2.85 GAA) in net. Daccord has faced Minnesota twice in his career. He is 0-2-0 with a 4.52 GAA and a .842 save percentage in those games. Grubauer has gone up against the Wild 17 times. He is 9-7-0 with a 2.95 GAA and a .894 save percentage. This is the third meeting between the teams this season. The Wild won the first two contests on the road -- a 3-0 win on Dec. 10 and a 5-2 victory on Feb. 24.

Rating: 2 Units

This is truly a fascinating first-round matchup that pits two of the best coaches in the NBA against one another. Few coaches understand how to navigate the playoffs and exploit mismatches better than Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra. On the other side of the court, Sixers head coach Nick Nurse is acutely aware of how to carefully navigate through the playoffs with an injured superstar, as he proved with Kawhi Leonard when the pair won a title with Toronto several seasons ago. With the coaching matchup even, this game will likely come down to talent. In that regard, I'm giving the edge to the Sixers in this one. Embiid is a rather large x-factor for the Heat to try to work around. He has a decided-size advantage over Adebayo in the paint and has looked extremely healthy since returning. The two teams split the season series this year at 2-2 but Embiid missed three of those games. He will force the Heat to either allow him to go one-on-one with Bam or double him which will free up an array of shooters the Sixers have at their disposal. As good as Jimmy Butler is in the playoffs, the Sixers are uniquely suited to at least give him problems with a ton of athletic twos and threes to put on him. Nurse understands that Embiid likely has only so many bullets in the gun for these playoffs and will likely play all out here to avoid having to play a second play-in game. The Heat have been there and done that having played two play-in games last year. The Sixers won't have to worry about that.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto is scheduled to start struggling Kevin Gausman (0-2, 11.57 ERA) today against fellow right-hander and former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman (1-1, 2.12). Stroman is 0-0 with an 0.82 ERA in two career starts vs. Toronto. This will be the second time Stroman has pitched in Toronto since he was traded to the New York Mets during the 2019 season. He held the Blue Jays to one run over five innings with the Chicago Cubs on Aug. 30, 2022. Gausman is 10-8 with a 3.27 ERA in 32 career outings (26 starts) against the Yankees. He allowed six runs (five earned) over 1 1/3 innings in a 9-8 loss in New York on April 6. He followed that last Friday by permitting six runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 frames to the Colorado Rockies in a 12-4 loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 and 10 of the first 15 to start the season. Houston has lost five of the last seven and dating back to last season have lost 15 in the last 20 at home. At the plate, Atlanta is first in team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while third in runs scored. Houston is next to last in team ERA at 5.35 and 28th in batting average allowed (.265). Atlanta starting pitcher Max Fried is coming off a solid outing in which the left-hander gave up four hits and one run in 6 plus innings last Friday with Atlanta defeating Miami 8-1.  Houston starting pitcher J.P. France is off to a slow start. Across three outings, the right-hander has allowed 14 runs in 15 plus innings while striking out 12 but walking seven. Houston has lost each of France’s three starts.  As mentioned twice previously, Houston is playing without four starting pitchers from last season's starting rotation, due to injuries, which puts more pressure on both the starting rotation and bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are off to a great start this season and part of that success is due to the return to form of starting pitcher Singer. Singer has found his strikeout pitch again after struggling in 2023 with just 133 strikeouts. He is well ahead of that pace this year and looks like a top-two starter in the rotation. The Royals are hitting home runs at a fast pace already with 20 on the season and that doesn't bode well for White Sox starter Fedde. Fedde has already given up five home runs in just three starts this season. The White Sox, as a team, are hitting just .200 as team this season and have struck out 132 times as a team.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland’s lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The current Athletics are only 10-for-43 with three home runs and four RBI against Lance Lynn. The A’s own an 85 wRC+ against the right-handed pitchers in April, so it’s hard to trust them in this matchup. I cannot take the A’s even though their bullpen has been terrific so far this month. The Cardinals have a 98 wRC+ against the southpaws in April and are 4-for-11 with a home run and two RBI versus JP Sears. Their bullpen has registered a strong 2.23 ERA and 2.63 FIP so far this month (40.1 innings pitched), so I’m backing the Cards to come out on top.  

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers are only getting 1.5 points on the spread, if you are going to back LeBron here, the money line is the play. This will be the brightest lights of the season, as everyone will tune in to see who will advance in this Play-In Tournament game, and looking at the stars, only LeBron and AD have proven they can play on the biggest stage. Zion is having a strong finish to the year, and is finally healthy, but his game is still relatively one-dimensional, designed on attacking the rim and scoring in the paint. The Lakers are huge inside, Anthony Davis is one of the best post defenders in the league, and LeBron always has the opportunity to switch onto him late if needed. LeBron is more perimeter oriented, but he is three inches taller than Zion and still an elite defender when he wants to be. The Lakers have gone big in recent lineups, starting Hachimura, and bringing the athletic big Jaxson Hayes off the bench. The Lakers won three of four matchups against the Pelicans this season, and they cannot afford trying to dodge Denver and putting themselves in a must win next game. The Lakers get their spot in the playoffs in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are going in different directions after this game as the Senators are heading to the golf course with another disappointing campaign. Boston is heading to the postseason and looking to make a run. The Bruins are a solid 24-10-6 on home ice this season while Ottawa entered Monday 15-22-2 as the visiting team this season. Ottawa has mustered just six goals in the last four meetings with the Bruins and with nothing to play for here, it will be interesting to see what kind of performance we get from the visitors. Boston is the better team and will want to stay focused with the postseason looming. Give the advantage to the Bruins on home ice in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants split their last four games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to pay well offensively in this game because they have crushed left-handed pitching this season and Weathers has been shaky on the mound, giving up six runs in three starts. He gave up three runs in his lone home start, and with Miami having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Giants in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 13 runs in their last three home games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Hicks has been brilliant on the mound this season, giving up three runs in three starts. He gave up one run in his lone start against the Marlins and will keep their offense in check. Go with San Francisco to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Sonny Gray's first start as a Cardinal was strong, and he'll return home as a pitcher that limits damage consistently. Behind him is a solid bullpen. Against an Athletics offense that is still among MLB's worst, expect St. Louis' pitching to keep Oakland in check. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will get hits off Ross Stripling, as his H/9 (13.0) is the reason that Oakland keeps losing his starts. St. Louis will get runs early and often. They should parlay that into a multi-run victory on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox will send right-hander Nick Nastrini to make his major league debut today. Nastrini, 24, was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of last year's trade deadline for right-handers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. Nastrini has made two starts at Triple-A Charlotte, going 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. He made five appearances (three starts) in spring training this year, going 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. The Royals will send right-hander Seth Lugo (2-0, 1.45 ERA), who will be making his fourth start of the season. In his most recent start last Wednesday night against the Houston Astros, Lugo earned his second win of the year, allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out two. Lugo, who is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his career against Chicago, will be making his second career start (third appearance) against the White Sox. Lugo allowed one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings, striking out three and walking two against the White Sox on April 4 to earn his first win with Kansas City.

Rating: 2 Units

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to bounce back behind resurrected right-hander Joe Ross when they host the San Diego Padres today in the opener of a short three-game homestand. Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who missed most of the last two seasons after a second Tommy John surgery, makes his third start for Milwaukee. Right-hander Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87), who gave up one hit over eight innings the last time he faced the Brewers, gets the nod for the Padres. Musgrove was charged with four runs on five hits in four innings in his most recent start, a 5-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. He allowed a leadoff homer in the fifth then left three batters later with the bases loaded. Reliever Stephen Kolek then surrendered a grand slam to the first batter he faced. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 4.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. Milwaukee.

Rating: 2 Units

This one is a game that has meaning for both teams, even with Boston locked into a postseason berth. The Bruins are still battling with the Panthers for the top spot in the Atlantic Division standings as they hold a single point advantage over Florida with a game in hand. Meanwhile, Washington is fighting for a playoff spot and it’s going to be a brawl over these final few days. The Capitals are a gritty team but you have to wonder if that six-game losing skid may have been too much for them to overcome. Boston is a veteran team with plenty of experience in big games. Look for the Bruins to go on the road and lock down the Atlantic Division crown by prevailing in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

There are several game-time decisions on both squads with key players that could affect the outcome of this game. However, given that this is the last game of the season, don't be surprised if the vast majority of those players miss this game. Either way, the best player on the floor for both teams, Victor Wembanyama, is available for the Spurs and that will make all the difference. The odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award has been brilliant down the stretch on both ends of the floor. He's dominated the paint on defense and taken on more of a scoring role offensively. The Spurs come in with a lot of momentum after their upset win over the Nuggets on Friday night and I expect them to end on a high note here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets have won two of their last three games and nine of their last 11 road games. They are playing well offensively and scored more than 118 points per game in their last three games. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and grab more than 12 offensive rebounds per game on the road, which will lead to extra-scoring chances. They also cut down their turnovers in recent games and won’t give the Clippers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Clippers have struggled defensively, giving up more than 112 points per game at home, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rockets in this game. The Clippers have won four of their last six games, but they dropped their last two home games. They’re not playing well offensively and scored less than 110 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Rockets and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Rockets, who average more than seven steals per game. Even though the Rockets have struggled defensively, they played better in their last three games and they will be facing Los Angeles’ reserves in this game, so expect them to keep the Clippers’ offense in check. Go with Houston to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago isn't going anywhere, but Cincinnati could be on the verge of a breakout season. The Reds have power, potential, and pitching — the White Sox have none of those things. The visitors will jump on Soroka early, giving Ashcraft the run support necessary to turn in a quality start. The Reds' SP hasn't been lights out, but he has fanned 11 batters in 11.1 IP and held the Phillies to two earned runs in his season debut. After facing Philadelphia and Milwaukee, he should find it much easier to work through the Sox lineup.

Rating; 2 Units

This Marlins squad has been miserable at home. Not only are they winless, but all but one of those defeats came by multiple runs. Matching up a struggling Jesus Luzardo, who has started three losses, against an Atlanta offense that's arguably MLB's best, is a nightmare matchup. Charlie Morton's lone road start of 2024 was what every team wants, scoreless. The Braves' bullpen has had issues, but Miami's offense is among MLB's weakest. This is another game where they can succeed. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers have been road warriors this season. They have won three straight road games and six of their last seven overall. They are playing well offensively and scored 27 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they feasted on right-handed pitching this season and they’re batting over .290 against righties. Even though Corbin has pitched well this season, he hasn't been as sharp at home, and with Baltimore’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Orioles have lost two of their last three home games. They are struggling offensively, scoring only six runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Rea has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, giving up three runs in two starts. He didn’t give up a run in his lone start against the Orioles last season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks feel confident in securing the two seed in the Eastern Conference race and with that, they could sit out a few players. Giannis has already been ruled out and that alone could be enough to take them out of a rhythm on both ends. For Orlando, they expect to have a near full complement of players and it'll be great for them to grab a win and finish the season strong. With a win against the Bucks already under their belts, they'll be confident in being able to replicate that in this one. Orlando has covered the spread in two of three meetings this season between these two, as they make it a third time in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Blues (42-33-5, 89 points) hope to use this season's strong finish as a springboard to better things in 2024-25. They have gone 10-4-2 in their past 16 games despite falling 5-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday. Today marks the third and final meeting between the teams this season. The Blues are 2-0 against the Kraken.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has an 8.33 ERA. The Diamondbacks have lost five of the last seven, five of the last six at home versus St Louis and Arizona is 2-4 in its last six against an opponent from the National League. St Louis is 14-6 in the last 20 versus Arizona and 5-1 in the last six on the road against the Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a solid 3.99 in team ERA. Arizona is allowing opponents to hit .246 and before winning two straight had lost five straight, allowing five runs or more in each of the five losses. Arizona is 25th in errors per game, committing an average of 0.85.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bruins have won five of their last seven games and three straight road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 10 goals in their last three road games. They have also played well on special teams, converting over 22 percent of their power play opportunities. The Penguins are great at killing penalties, but their defense is a liability, with the team giving up 11 goals in their last three home games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bruins in this game. The Penguins have won five of their last six games. They are paying well offensively, scoring 14 goals in their last three home games. They haven’t been as good on special teams, converting less than 15 percent of their power play opportunities. The Bruins have killed over 82 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up only three goals in their last three road games, so expect them to keep Pittsburgh’s offense in check. Go with Boston to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five games, while San Francisco is 3-7 in the last 10 games, and 2-4 in the last six in the six versus Tampa Bay. San Francisco has lost nine of the last 12 in April. Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot was hit hard in his first outing, but bounced back strong last time out when holding Colorado, at Coors Field, to three hits and no runs in six innings. Logan Webb has allowed nine runs in 19 ⅔ innings for an ERA of nearly 5.00. San Francisco’s team ERA is 27th at 5.06 and is allowing teams to average .262 at the plate. Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes is off to a strong start with four home runs and 10 RBIs.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has fared much better against left-handed pitchers (.277 BA/.358 OBP/.361 SLG/.719 OPS) than right-handers this season (.208/.283/.350/.633), and while Gonzales has pitched well in his first two outings, his track record isn't reliable. He has been home run-prone during his career, allowing 29 long balls in 2021 and 30 in 2022. The home team's powerful lineup will inflict damage on the lefty hurler's ERA early in tomorrow's game, building a lead for Turnbull. Philly's pen has performed poorly this season, but with a comfortable lead, Turnbull should last long enough to take pressure off of it.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati is not off to the best start but it's playing one of the weakest teams in baseball, as the White Sox have been decimated by injuries. Chicago is without Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Max Stassi, who all contribute considerably at the plate. The loss of several players for Chicago has resulted in the White Sox being 25th in slugging percentage, 26th in team batting average and 29th in runs scored, averaging 2.42 runs per game. Chicago has lost 12 of its last 14. Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abboitt has had two solid outings allowing 10 hits and five runs in 10 ⅓ innings. In contrast, Chicago starting pitcher Chris Flexen has allowed seven earned runs in 10 ⅔ innings resulting in losses to Atlanta and Kansas City. Flexen has a 5.91 ERA.

Rating; 2 Units

With the two-seed still within arm's reach, New York will play spirited basketball in front of its home crowd on Friday. The Knickerbockers are getting right just in time for the NBA playoffs, as the return of OG Anunoby has cemented their status as an elite Eastern Conference team. In the last matchup with the Nets, NY's defense was the story. Brooklyn scored just 93 points, as it shot 12-for-35 from three-point range and was outscored 48-35 in the paint. The Nets also committed 15 turnovers and gave up 18 fast break points. Bettors can expect more of the same on Friday at MSG, as New York's interior defense is tough (6th in opponent rim FG%) and Brooklyn struggles from the mid-range (27th in mid-range FG%), which puts too much pressure on it to hit three-pointers. The Knicks will win the battle for NYC, securing a double-digit victory tonight at The Mecca!

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have won seven straight games. They’ve been on a roll offensively and scored 28 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers this season and Severino struggled in his first home start, giving up six runs in the loss to Milwaukee. Even though he is 3-1 against the Royals, he didn’t pitch well in recent starts against them, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts against Kansas City, so expect him to have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Mets have won five of their last seven games. They have also played well offensively, scoring 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they’re batting under .200 against right-handers and Wacha has looked good on the mound for the Royals, giving up only three runs in two starts. He is 5-3 against the Mets and gave up 10 runs in his last four starts against them. With Kansas City’s bullpen playing well at the moment, they won’t have a hard time keeping New York’s offense in check. Go with Kansas City to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles, as they were on the road and playing well into the night against Boston before having to travel home to take on the well rested Brewer team. On top of that, Milwaukee has the best power hitter, and the better pitcher in the matchup. Christian Yelich has more home runs that the top two Orioles combined, he has been excellent lately and is fueling this Milwaukee attack. This will be bad news for Tyler Wells, as he lost both of his starts this season, allowing at least three runs and a home run in each of his two starts. Peralta has been much better for the Brewers, and has struck out 15 while only walking two, with the Brewers winning each of his two starts. The Brewers will steal the first game here on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

They say it is hard to beat the same team three times in a season. Well, how does that expression change when a team has already beaten them four times in a row, and are going for their fifth? It seems the Pelicans just have Sacramento's number. De'Aaron Fox averages 8 points under his average against New Orleans this season, as he is at 26 per game on the season, but only averages 18 against the Pelicans. The Pelicans also have the most to play for in this game, as they have the most realistic chance to stay in the six-seed with a win, while Sacramento would need many other results to fall their way to get up to 6th. Sacramento has not been the same team without Huerter and Monk, as they have lost three of their last four. Malik Monk was important to the Kings at crunchtime, and leaves Fox alone as the sole shot creator on the perimeter. Zion is healthy and is starting to show that potential he flashed years ago, and CJ McCollum is on fire, scoring at least 29 in his past four games.

Rating; 2 Units

Both teams are entrenched in the postseason field in the Western Conference. Dallas owns the top spot in the Central Division while Winnipeg is dueling with the Avalanche to try and lock down home ice advantage in what will be a highly entertaining first-round series. The Stars have been rock solid at home, posting a 24-10-4 mark this season, though the Jets are one of the league’s elite road teams (23-13-3) so they won’t be rattled playing in front of a raucous crowd. Dallas has had the upper hand in this series of late, earning points in nine of the last 10 meetings. Look for the Stars to sweep the season series by prevailing in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics do not have any motivation to win this game tonight. While the Knicks are fighting for the best possible spot in the playoff standings, Boston is already locked into the #1 spot in the Eastern Conference. With that in mind, the current designation of Porzingis and Horford as game-time decisions seems to be a bit translucent. You can almost guarantee that both will again be absent for this game given the intensity the Knicks will bring to this game and the Celtics not wanting to risk injury to their two big men. The Knicks' Brunson is playing himself into a likely top-five MVP finish with his play and he will do his best here to will the Knicks to win. I like the Knicks to bring the intensity and purpose of a team still fighting for the best seed and the Celtics being unable or even unwilling to match that intensity in a meaningless game for them.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have momentum after a solid start to 2024 and Singer has been impressive in his first two outings. The Astros aren't consistently producing at the plate and have been held to three or fewer runs in four of their last five games (prior to Wednesday's action). These Astros hitters haven't seen Singer since the 2022 season. Considering Brown's recent struggles, I feel confident the wrong team is favored. He may have better stuff tomorrow, but I'm not betting on that outcome. If the Royals get out to an early lead, the Astros will be leaving town with another series loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Vegas Golden Knights will close their regular-season road schedule on Wednesday night when they face the host Edmonton Oilers for what could be a preview of a first-round playoff series in the Western Conference. It marks the final contest of a three-game road trip to forget for the defending Stanley Cup champions, who are chasing the Los Angeles Kings for third place in the Pacific Division and currently occupy the final wild-card spot in the West. Vegas (42-27-8, 92 points) started the trip by yielding six unanswered third-period goals in a 7-4 loss to the Arizona Coyotes on Friday, and it followed that up by blowing a 3-2, second-period lead in a 4-3 loss against the Vancouver Canucks on Monday. The potential good news for the Golden Knights is that they may not have to face reigning MVP Connor McDavid. McDavid, who is third in the league in points with 130 (31 goals, 99 assists), didn't practice on Tuesday because of a lower-body injury. However, the Oilers have a very deep team, with three other players (Draisaitl, Hyman, and Bouchard) ranked in the top 46 in points per game. 

Rating: 2 Units

Tonight,we focus on Milwaukee, who comes in off a revenge battle on this court against Boston. That sets the table as the Bucks bring a 2-5 ATS ledger into this contest since the new year began in games when coming off a same-season revenger. It meshes with Milwaukee’s 1-5-1 ATS mark in home games after battling Boston. Tie it into Orlando’s Friday, sterling 46-26 ATS overall mark in all games this season and we're on the Magic tonight.

Rating: 2 Units

Lugo has been outstanding in his two starts thus far, most importantly by keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding giving up extra-base hits. Brown has not been very good thus far, struggling with the strike zone and giving up 12 hits in just seven innings of work. Last year, Brown was roughed up by these same Royals including coughing up four home runs in his lone start against KC. The Royals have been getting exceptional pitching thus far with a team ERA under three and a team WHIP of 1.01. Lugo's ability to keep the ball on the ground will be key to victory here against an Astros team that has 16 home runs on the season heading into Tuesday night's game against KC.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami may have sent a message by updating their injury report right before the Atlanta game. Bam Adebayo, Terry Rozier, Kevin Love and Nikola Jovic were all added for minor injuries that were not previously listed. It is possible Miami will begin to prepare for the playoffs, and not put their best lineups on the floor for the final games. Miami cannot fall to the 9th spot, losses do not necessarily hurt them, and it is very unlikely they can jump all the way to six. The injury report may might be the first step in resting some of their stars down the stretch. Dallas is in the fifth spot in the West, but could fall to seventh with a disastrous finish. Dallas needs to hold on to their top six spot to ensure they are not in the Play-In Tournament. Matchup wise, Doncic and Irving are both healthy and their games have complimented each other recently. Dallas has ironed out their lineup with the two stars and role players that know their jobs every night. Dallas needs this one more and will cover the spread in Miami.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles jumped all over Boston's pitching yesterday, scoring seven runs on 13 hits. They were 8-for-15 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox scored one run in the bottom of the first but were held scoreless the rest of the afternoon, managing just two hits against SP Corbin Burnes and the O's bullpen. I'm anticipating a better performance by the home team today against Irvin, who didn't fare well against Boston last season, as 1B Triston Casas hit a three-run homer and 3B Rafael Devers went 2-for-4. The Orioles starter put nine runners on base in his 2024 debut versus the Royals, and I expect Boston to take advantage of these opportunities after yesterday's dud. Crawford is expected to go for Boston, which should be good news for Sox fans. He has allowed just five hits with 12 Ks in 10.2 combined innings this season and held Baltimore scoreless in his lone appearance against them last year (one hit with seven Ks in 6.0 IP on Sept. 30). He and the Red Sox bullpen (fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeouts) should perform well enough to quiet the Orioles' bats. 

Rating: 2 Units

Nola (1-1, 5.40 ERA) allowed seven runs, six earned, in 4 1/3 innings during a 12-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves on March 30. He rebounded as the Phillies blanked the host Washington Nationals 4-0 on Friday. Nola walked four batters in the blustery conditions but gave up only two hits over 5 2/3 innings. Nola went 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals last season. In his career, he is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 11 starts vs. St. Louis. Lance Lynn (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Cardinals. He threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers before a Southern California rainstorm cut short his March 30 start. In his second outing, Lynn served up three home runs to the Miami Marlins in 4 2/3 innings on Thursday, though the Cardinals won 8-5. He allowed four runs on eight hits in that contest.

NBA Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

Phoenix will be anxious to avenge a 138-111 beatdown at L.A. in January, knowing they are 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS in games when avenging a loss of 25-plus points. That’s not good news for a group of paper clips who stand 5-12 ATS against foes with same season revenge on their minds from a loss of 20-plus points, including 0-5 ATS in the last five games – not to mention that Phoenix Suns are 12-2 ATS in Last Home Games they win outright, including 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Finally, Phoenix is 5-1 SUATS in this series when looking to avenge a same-season loss of 25-plus points, including 5-0 SUATS when the Clippers sport a winning record.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are trying to hang on for home court advantage in the postseason though in different forms. The Knicks showed grit rallying to down the Bucks after trailing by double digits at the half on the road Sunday but Brunson can’t carry the load by himself forever. Chicago won the meeting Friday night in their previous matchup and they have home court advantage going for them here. Injuries have taken a toll on the Bulls with LaVine and Williams out of the mix. Similarly, the Knicks lost Randle for the season but they have gotten production from DiVincenzo and Hart as part of their three-and-D wing players. New York has more at stake for themselves here and they find a way to pull out the win on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight head-to-head versus St Louis and the Phillies have won four of the last five played on the road at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals. Although Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler is 0-1, the right-hander has pitched very well in two outings allowing just one run in 12 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and one walk. St Louis starting pitcher Sonny Gray will be making his season debut and will likely not pitch more than three to four innings. St Louis has struggled at the plate thus far with a team batting average of .222 and a .343 slugging percentage. The Cardinals OPS is just .643. Philadelphia is not that much better at this point, but the Phillies are higher in each of the three previous categories with a .229 team batting average, .358 slugging percentage and .675 OPS.

Rating: 2 Units

When looking at the offenses throughout the last few games, the Rangers are scoring 4.6 goals in their last five games while the Islanders are averaging 3.0 goals in their previous four games. The ability to score on the power play shows a massive difference as the Rangers are fourth in hockey with a 26.4 power play percentage while the Islanders are down at 20th with a 20.4 power play percentage thus far. All in all, go with the New York Rangers to win this game. 

Rating; 2 Units

The Yankees destroyed Jesus Luzardo, as both Juan Soto and Anthony Volpe took the Marlins’ lefty deep. The Yankees should be fired up to stay hot against another southpaw in A.J. Puk. It’s hard to trust Puk, who served as Miami’s closer for most of the 2023 season. He’s been pretty bad over his first two showings in 2024. Furthermore, the Marlins bullpen holds an ugly 6.11 ERA, whereas the Yankees’ relievers have recorded a 2.88 ERA so far this season.

Rating: 4 Units

The UConn Huskies were the betting favorite throughout the tournament and now find themselves listed as 6.5-point favorites in the Championship Game. The Huskies have been dominant in their postseason run, as their closest contest was the 14-point win in the Final Four. All five starters scored 12 or more in that game, as they were led by their freshman Stephon Castle with 21 points, and big man Donovan Clingan (7-2, 280) contributed another 18 points and five rebounds. Tristen Newton is their First Team All-American Guard, he averages 14.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.2 APG as a 6'5 senior. Newton had 12 points and nine assists in the Final Four win. Cam Spencer is the best shooter on the team, the 6'4 senior guard has 98 made threes and is not far behind Newton in scoring with 14.4 PPG. Spencer has scored in double figures in every tournament game so far. Donovan Clingan is one of the rare players in the nation that can match up with Zach Edey and not give up much size, he is a 7'2, 280-pound sophomore center getting 13.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG. Alex Karaban is a 6'8 sophomore getting 13.5 PPG and can stretch the floor with his jumper. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman getting 11.0 PPG and is coming off the team-high in the Final Four. Conn is the top overall ranked team in KenPom. They also have the top-rated offense in terms of efficiency and rank 4th in defensive efficiency. They play even slower than Purdue does, ranking only 328th in the nation in pace of play Finally, Big East teams are 8-1 ATS while Big 10 teams are 0-6 ATS L18Y in championship contests.

Rating: 2 Units

James Paxton is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Last season, he met the Twins once as a member of the Red Sox and threw 6.1 frames of a three-run ball in a winning effort. On the other side, Bailey Ober emerged victorious in his lone career start against the Dodgers. Last year, he held the Blue Crew to one earned run on six hits. I’m backing the Dodgers because of their scary lineup. The Dodgers lead the majors in home runs (15) and are third in OPS (.816). They are hitting a strong .298/.373/.477 against the right-handed pitchers, and it’s hard to trust Bailey Ober in this matchup. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with the Twins. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Atlanta Braves are far and away the better team and should be able to dominate against a struggling New York Mets team. We do not know what is going to be coming out of Julio Teheran while Charlie Morton has been dominating throughout his old age. This Braves team has been the best offensive team throughout the beginning stages of the season and should be able to continue doing extremely well. Ronald Acuna Jr. is 4-for-6 with a home run while Marcell Ozuna has a 1.024 OPS in 53 at-bats. All in all, go with the Atlanta Braves to cover the run line in this game. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Penguins have been rolling and look to pull off the upset and provide great odds in the process. The problem is that the Maple Leafs have been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and they look to control this game from the first period. The Maple Leafs, who average 3.62 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Maple Leafs should limit the Penguins' offense with T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net. The Maple Leafs should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees have won seven of their last nine games. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least five runs in three of their last four games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against left-handers and they’ve had a lot of success against Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts. He is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. With Miami also having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Yankees in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games. Even though they played well offensively in their last game, they haven’t looked good on that end so far and scored only 11 runs in their previous four games. Even though Cortez has been shaky on the mound so far, giving up seven runs in two starts, expect the Marlins to struggle offensively in this game because they are batting under .200 against left-handers and Cortez is backed up by one of the best bullpens in the league, so even if they get to him, the damage will be minimized. Go with New York to cover the money line. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Dallas Stars are a determined squad. They have won eight of their last nine games and can build their lead to five points ahead of the Avalanche with a win in this one. A win would all but secure the division considering only four games remain after this one. The Colorado Avalanche are only 2-4 in their last six games. The Stars have been outstanding in the defensive end and in the net. They are a better defensive squad than the Avalanche and this one will have the emotion of a playoff game. The Stars have allowed two or fewer goals in seven of their last ten games. The Stars also have no issues on the road, collecting the win in four of their last five road bouts.

Rating: 2 Units

Brooklyn is playing for the second straight night here and have nothing to play for at this point after being eliminated from playoff contention. The Nets have sputtered offensively and have been less than inspiring all season long. Sacramento has fallen into the play-in tournament field and hope to try and push back into the actual guaranteed playoff field but they need to win some games plus get some help. The losses of Huerter and Monk have taken perimeter shooting options out of the mix. Still, Sacramento has something to play for and the rest advantage in this contest. Look for the Kings to come up with the victory in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bulls take the court in Orlando amid a battle with Atlanta as both teams look to avoid the 10-hole in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They’ll do so with a healthy dose of same-season triple revenge on its mind, with Orlando trying to do its best to stay focused after coming off Friday’s visit to Charlotte, where the Hornets were nesting with an identical same-season triple revenge motive. The question is whether or not you can blame the Magic for not being fully focused here tonight. With the Bulls bringing a brawny 10-3-1 ATS mark in games with same-season triple revenge from Game 70 out and Orlando 0-3 SUATS in games in the second half of opposing same-season triple revengers.

Rating: 2 Units

It appears as though the pressure has hurt the young talented roster of the Houston Rockets as they have lost four straight while attempting to move into 10th place in the Western Conference. The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in four of the last five. Dallas is closing in on securing a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the play-in round of the postseason. Dallas has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games. Dallas has the sixth best offense in scoring, averaging 118.2 points per day and is 11th in field goal shooting percentage while 10th in 3-point shooting percentage. Dallas has won nine of its last 10 straight up and that includes defeating the Rockets last week 125-107 in Houston, while covering the spread in the process.

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is 27th in team ERA, 28th in WHIP and 25th in batting average allowed. The Marlins are not much better at the plate, sitting 25th in team batting average, 26th in on base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. St Louis is slightly better on the mound with the 18th-best ERA. Miami starter Max Meyer had a solid outing in his season debut allowing two runs in five innings including serving up one home run but the Marlins lost nonetheless.  Kyle Gibson had a strong debut with St Louis on the mound. Gibson gave up two runs in seven innings to beat the San Diego Padres 6-2 last Monday. Miami has lost eight straight to open the season and the Marlins are 1-9 over the last 10 games played on the road versus St Louis. St Louis has won four of its last six.

Rating; 2 Units

The Brewers have won five of their last six games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’re batting over .270 against right-handers and Hancock didn’t look good on the mound in his first start, giving up three runs in five innings. With Seattle’s bullpen also struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Mariners have lost three straight games. They are struggling offensively, scoring seven runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they’re barely batting over .200 against right-handers and Rea looked good on the mound in his first start, giving up only one run. With Milwaukee’s bullpen also playing well, they won’t have trouble keeping Seattle’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line.

Rating: 4 Units

The Huskies will cover another large spread. They're 4-0 ATS in the tournament and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. While not usually high-tempo (315th in schedule-adjusted tempo), they can adapt to a faster pace, which will be required against the Crimson Tide (9th in adjusted tempo). They scored 80, 87, and 99 points in three games against more defensive-minded Xavier (35th in adjusted tempo) and UNC (42nd in tempo) squads. Alabama will find this matchup challenging, as Connecticut holds its opponents to 30.9 percent from beyond the arc and discourages them from taking a lot of threes (33.2 percent of their total shot attempts). It also ranks 2nd nationally in two-point defense and 1st in points per shot allowed at the rim. The Tide live and die with a rim-and-three-based offense — I bet on the latter outcome in the Final Four.