I'm playing on LA. Off a loss to the lowly Houston Rockets, I expect the Lakers to bounce back with a huge effort tonight. A game against the Wizards figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday, Washington is 0-6 SU/ATS against teams from the Pacific, 9-16 ATS its past 25. Overall, the Wizards are a dismal 5-16 ATS against teams from the West. Washington figures to have trouble keeping up in this one. While the Wizards average 104.6 ppg on the road, the Lakers average 111.8 here at home. They're averaging 115.8 ppg their past five. The Wizards beat the Lakers here, in OT, last season. Beal had 33 points and Westbrook had 32 points, along with 14 rebounds and nine assists. No other Wizard scored more than 15. Beal is out and now Westbrook plays for the Lakers. Expect Westbrook to have a big game against his former team, the Lakers responding with a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. I love the grit that the Wildcats showed in winning yesterday's game. The Wildcats couldn't hit anything out of the gate. They made only three of their first 20 shots. The defense kept them in it though, as they still trailed by only six. Things got worse. By halftime, the Wildcats were down seven. The second half didn't start well either. In fact, with 15:33 left in the game, Villanova was down by 17 points. That's when the talent and experience kicked in. The Cats didn't blink and went on an 18-2 run. They'd ultimated win by a point. As Jay Wright noted: "We've got great seniors. We have great upperclassmen." No question, UConn is tough. However, I believe that yesterday's comeback win is exactly the type of victory that will build and provide positive momentum fo the Wildcats. Though the Huskies are really good, arguably the second best team in a very strong conference, I don't think they're quite as good as the Villanova team which they'll face today. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS their past seven, as neutral court underdogs. Expect them to stumble tonight, the favorite moving to 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times that these teams faced each other.

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. Kent State won the lone regular season meeting. At the time, the RedHawks were in the midst of a really bad skid. However, that was more than a month ago. I really like the way that Miami enters this tournament. This is an experienced Miami team, one which returned all five starters from last season. The RedHawks closed out the season off b2b double-digit victories. They won 75-61 at Central Michigan and then followed it up with a 76-63 blowout of Eastern Michigan. Of course, Kent State has been playing really well for some time now. That said, note that each of the Golden Flashes' last three wins have been by single digits; they came by an average of five points. It's also worth mentioning that the Flashes are 1-4-1 ATS (2-4 SU) the past six times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games. The Golden Flashes can have trouble scoring when not playing at home, too. They average 71.2 ppg overall but just 66.6 on the road. On the other hand, Miami averages 75.3 ppg overall and 73.2 ppg on the road. Remember, these teams were very evenly ranked, entering the season. Grab the points and expect the RedHawks, who just may be peaking at exactly the right time, to take this one down to the wire with a real shot at the upset.

I'm playing on WOLVERHAMPTON. Off three straight losses, Wolverhampton desperately needs to right the ship. Watford figures to be the perfect opponent. Facing relegation, the Hornets are badly in need of points themselves. This is a Watford team, however, which has conceeded 50 goals in 27 league matches. In the same number of games, Wolverhampton has allowed only 23 goals. Watford may have played a little better of late. However, keep in mind that the Hornets are expected to be without Ismaila Sarr and that they're 0-9-2 in 11 league matches this season, when he doesn't play. Without Sarr, expect Watford to have trouble scoring and for Wolverhampton to pick up the max points. 

I'm playing on PRAIRIE VIEW. These teams split a pair of close games during the regular season. (Each team won on the other team's home floor.) The pointspread suggests this could be another close one. Though the pointspread isn't likely to be a factor, it's worth mentioning that AS is 2-6 its last eight as favorite while PV is 5-0 ATS its last five as an underdog. Alcorn State had the better regular season record. I believe Prairie View is the stronger of the two teams though and I expect that to play out on the court this evening. No question that it was a disappointing reg. season for the Panthers. However, the tournament offers a chance at a fresh start and this is a PV team with the tools to make the most of that chance. Keep in mind that the Panthers have arguably the most talented backcourt in the SWAC. They're "deep and versatile." This is a team which lost in the SWAC title game last season and which is hungry to to get back there. The Braves dropped 100 points on Arkansas Pine Bluff last time out. On the surface, that sounds pretty impressive. However, the Golden Lions aren't very good and don't play defense. Also, the Braves are only 5-10 ATS the past 15 times that they scored 80 or more in their previous game. The Panthers, on the other hand, are 8-3 ATS their last 11, when off a conference loss. Look for them to elevate their game and improve on those stats this evening.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. While the Celtics check in as the hotter team, I expect the Hornets to be the hungrier one. The Hornets fell behind early last night and couldn't recover. They kept battling though and I expect them to get off to a better start this evening. As coach Borrego commented: "We just have to get off to a better start ..." Note that the Hornets had the previous two days off, before playing last night. So, they're aren't playing their third game in four nights here. As for Boston coming in rested, note that the Celtics are only 2-5-2 ATS (4-5 SU), when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Celtics are also only 8-15-1 ATS (9-15 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after playing their previous three games at home. The Hornets have played the Celtics tough in all three meetings. They split the two meetings at Boston, winning one by nine and losing the other by six. They lost the game here at Charlotte. However, they took the Celtics to OT. (They won the previous game here by 20+.) Expect them to give their hosts all they can handle again tonight, improving to 10-3 ATS when facing teams from the Atlantic. 

I'm playing on MARSHALL. The Panthers had the better regular season record. They even won both regular season meetings. Yet, Marshall is favored for good reason. Indeed, this is a tough matchup for the Panthers. The Herd are far more talented than their record suggests. The Panthers aren't playing as well now as they were when the teams played earlier in the season. They've lost their last four games. Those losses came by nine, 20, 20 and eight points, an average of more than 14. Though they covered last game, the Panthers are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off an ATS victory. They've allowed more than 80 points in two of their past three. I don't believe they'll able to keep up tonight. Look for Marshall to "win when it counts," covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on CHARLESTON. The Seahawks took both regular season meetings. However, the Cougars are slight favorites for good reason, as this will prove to be one of those cases where it's really difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. The Seahawks beat the Cougars at UNC Wilmington last month. The previous month, they beat the Cougars at Charleston. The Cougars had just finished a tough non-conf. schedule though and they were still adjusting to new players and a first year coach. However, Kelsey is a quality coach and he's got a lot to work with. He's now had the time needed and his team is now benefitting from those tough early non-conf. games. Yesterday's double-digit blowout of Hofstra brought them to 6-0 ATS their past six games. Keep in mind that the Cougars also lost both reg. season games to Hofstra. Yet, they won big when it mattered. I believe that they're putting it all together at the right time and I fully expect another victory this evening.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls are coming in extremely hungry. Not only are they desperate to snap their 4-game losing streak but they're also playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three of this season's meetings. The game here at Philadelphia was a close one, the 76'ers winning by five. With this game also being played at Philadelphia, we're getting a few extra points to work with. (Note that three of Chicago's four losses, on the current skid, were by fewer than seven points.) Yet, the 76'ers are a team which actually has a better road record. (They're 18-13 at home but 21-11 on the road.) The Bulls have had a tough stretch of games but they've finally had a chance to catch their breath. They had the weekend off. They also get tomorrow off. They should be refreshed and fully focused on the task at hand. The 76'ers are off a 17-point loss and they won their previous game by six. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the revenge-minded visitors score the outright upset. 

I'm playing LA on the puck-line (+1.5 goals.) Both teams have played well. The Kings easily beat Buffalo yesterday. The 3-0 shutout win brought them to 7-2 their last nine. The Bruins, for their part, have won seven of eight. With the game being played at Boston and with LA off a game yesterday, the Bruins are fairly steep favorites on the ML. As a result, we're able to get an extra 1.5 goals with the Kings, on the puck-line. Though we may not need them, those extra +1.5 goals could well prove invaluable. One of LA's recent two lossses came against these same Bruins, at LA. It wasn't just a normal loss either. It was an ugly embarrassing one. Boston won 7-0. That'll provide the Kings with some added motivation in this one. The Kings, who should get their coach back from Covid-protocol tonight, actually outshot (34-32) the Bruins in the 7-0 loss. They usually do outshoot teams, having done so in 41 of 57 games. In fact, they allow the fewest shots on goal per game, in the entire NHL. Playing two games in two days hasn't been an issue for the Kings either. They're 3-0 the last three times that they were in that situation and before that they lost an OT game. (So, a cover at +1.5) The Kings are also 8-1 their last nine on the road. Additionally, the road team has won six of the past seven meetings between these teams. The Kings won 4-3 here last year and lost 5-4 the year before. Both games were tied at the end of regulation. In fact, their previous two visits here were also decided by a single goal. Catching the Bruins playing their first game back from a long road trip, expect the revenge-minded Kings to deliver AT LEAST the "puck-line cover." 

I'm playing on NORTH DAKOTA STATE. he Bison won both reg. season meetings. One win came by eight points. The other came by 18. Sometimes, you'll hear that it can be difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. That's certainly true if the weaker team somehow managed to win both regular season games. At times, it can also be true when the two teams are fairly evenly matched. However, there are cases where one team is just a lot better than the other team. In those situations, there's no reason to think that anything will change from what happened in the regular season. I believe that this is one of those cases. The Bison have a big edge in the backcourt and arguably an even bigger edge in the frontcourt. (The entered the season with the #1 ranked frontcourt in the conference and the #3 ranked backcourt.) The Bison score more points than the Pioneers and they allow less. With an opening O/U line in the high 130s, note that NDSU is 3-0 ATS the past three times it played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. They're 8-3 ATS their last 11 in that situation. During that span, the Pioneers were 2-6 ATS when playing a neutral site game with an O/U line in that range. Expect a double-digit win for the superior team. 

I'm playing on UTAH. Off a big home win against Arizona, the Buffaloes can now secure a #4 seed. That makes this a big game for them. Off back-to-back losses, playing with revenge from a close loss at Colorado and playing their home finale, the Utes are also going to be fired up. That Arizona win was just the second time in school history (and first since 1992) that Colorado had beaten a #2 seed. I believe that 'historic' win may have the Buffaloes, who lost a lot from last year's team and who are 3-10 ATS their last 13, when off an ATS victory, ripe for a "letdown." Over the past couple of months, they've seen a few players go down to injury, including guard Parquet and center Lovering. Those were significant losses. In his last game before injury, Parquet provided 31 minutes, nine points, five rebounds, two assists and three blocks. That was a low-scoring (60-58) game, too. So, stats were tough to come by. The 7-foot Lovering had also been expected to be a big part of the Buffaloes' plans. Keep in mind that the Buffaloes are only mediocre on the road, where they average just 67.1 ppg. The Utes are a profitable 39-19 ATS over the years, after failing to cover their previous three games, 8-3 ATS their last 11 in that situation. Expect the Utes' best effort as they bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on OKC. I believe that the value lies with the revenge-minded home underdog in this one. The Thunder have treated me well and I already won my Div. "GOY" on them. This is a team which has been at its best in divisional play. The Thunder beat Denver outright last game and are now 7-2 ATS against teams from within their division. One of the losses came in the last meeting against Minnesota. I won with the 'over' in that one; the T-Wolves came here and scored 135 points. (That game had a much lower O/U line than this one!) The Thunder haven't forgotten and they're coming in with a score to settle. Note that they're 30-15-1 ATS their past 46 in the 'revenge' role, 71-45-4 ATS their past 120. I like that the Thunder have tomorrow night off. On the other hand, the Wolves, who upset the Warriors last time out, have a game vs. Portland on deck tomorrow. With Minnesota just 11-25 ATS (10-26 SU) the past 36 times that it was off an upset win, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on LOYOLA. You probably recall that the Ramblers made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year, eventually losing in the Sweet 16. This year's team brought back four of those five starters. They're still loaded and now they'll remind everyone of that. The Brave, 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games, are in over their heads. It doesn't hurt that Bradley upset the Ramblers in the most recent meeting. That'll ensure they don't take anything for granted here. The Ramblers are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) the past 11 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 10-1 SU the past 11 times thay they were off a conference loss. Look for an angry Loyola team to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks recently lost to the Bulls, at Chicago. Playing with "triple revenge," they're going to be extremely motivated. I believe that the Hawks are catching Chicago at the right time. Since beating the Hawks by four, the Bulls have dropped b2b games. Chicago coach Donavan acknowledged his team is a bit inexperienced and doesn't seem to mind bringing out the best in the other team: "The biggest thing for me is we have to get battle-tested in some of these games, and we just don't have a lot of guys who have gone into these kind of experiences. I think it's really good for us." Expect him to get his wish tonight as the Hawks are going to give them all that they can handle. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home and 5-0 ATS their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Grab the points. 

I'm playing FLORIDA on the puck-line (-1.5 goals) Not very good at the best of times, the Senators (9-15 on the road) are dealing with a flu bug and injury issues. Tonight, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time.  The Panthers (23-6 at home) are one of the best teams in the league and they're going to be in a very angry mood. Not only have the Panthers dropped three straight games but they also lost 8-2 to the Sens here earlier. They'd entered that game with a 14-1 home record. Needless to say, they've had this one circled. I don't expect them to just win. I expect them to "win big." 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. The Warhawks are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. This is another tough matchup for them. The Red Wolves are a much stronger team. They enter the tournament off a momentum-building victory over a solid Appalachian State team and they've got high hopes of making a run. On the other hand, the Warhawks are off five straight losses, the most recent coming a demoralizing OT setback. They'll be playing their fourth straight away from home and their morale may be at its lowest point of the season. They're 0-4 ATS their last four as neutral site underdogs. Having been upset by the Warhawks in the last meeting, the Red Wolves, 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss, will be "all business" right from the opening tip. Expect them to win this one by double-digits, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine "tournament" games.  

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Both teams have covered the spread in b2b games. The Pelicans victories have arguably been more impressive though. They won outright, by 15 points, at Phoenix. That's no easy task. (Even with that result, the Suns have the best record in the NBA and are tied for the best home record.) Then, the Pelicans followed it up with a 28 point blowout win, at LA. They return home flying high and full of confidence. The Kings also won big in their last game. However, that was against the Thunder, the team with the second worst record in the West. Prior to that, they'd lost four straight. Having lost each of this season's first two meetings, the Pelicans have a score to settle. While the Kings are 1-5 ATS their last six on road games vs. teams with losing home records, the Pelicans are 5-1-1 ATS (or 6-1 ATS) their last seven games vs. teams with losing records, overall. Note that NO has had two days off and also gets tomorrow off. Sacraemento, on the other hand, has had one day off and has a game against San Antonio tomorrow night. With the Kings just 2-8 SU/ATS the past 10 times that they scored 130 or more in their previous game, lay the points with the revenge-minded Pelicans. 

Analysis to follow

I'm playing on GSW. While the Warriors had last night off, the T-Wolves are off a hard-fought win at Minnesota. The Cavs battled back hard in the fourth quarter, forcing Minnesota to give extra effort. The last time that the Wolves played the second of b2b games was less than a week ago. They lost by 31 points. In fact, they're 0-3  ATS when playing the second of b2b games this month (all three losses were by double-digits) and they're now 0-5 ATS their last five in that situation. While they're still less than 100% healthy, having just lost to Dallas, the Warriors are going to be extremely hungry. They're 8-3 SU when off an upset loss. Last time that they were off a loss, they bounced back with a 37-point win. Schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back, once again. 

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. These teams met a week ago, at Miami. The RedHawks were double-digit favorites but lost outright. That will provide them with some added motivation for this one. They've got the superior talent and they don't want to be swept by an inferior opponent. The last time these teams met here was just over a year ago. The RedHawks were laying -6 and they won by 42 points, a 96-54 destruction. Including that result, the RedHawks have won 12 of their last 16 visits here. Even with last week's loss, the Red Hawks are still 19-9 their last 28 against teams with a losing record. With an O/U line in the high 140s, note that CMU is 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. I say the revenge-minded RedHawks elevate their game, en route to a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. The Bears are strong in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. Off b2b wins, I believe that they're peaking at the right time. I believe that they're better than their record suggests and I expect them to be fairly tough to beat once the MEAC Conference Tourney begins. Last time out, they won by seven. Last game here, they won by double-digits. This evening's game represents the Bears' final regular season home game. Six seniors will be honored before the game. Needless to say, they want to win their final game here at Hill Field House. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Hawks won this season's earlier meeting. The Bears have won 14 of the past 20 meetings here, most recently an 8-point win in February of 2020. While the Hawks average 64 ppg on the road, the Bears average 88 ppg here at home. They'll be able to dictate the tempo and the Hawks won't be able to keep up. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Playing at home and he Buckeyes won this season's first meeting. They also won a close one here last season, their third straight win in the series. Enough's enough. The Terps are stronger than their record suggests and they're healthier than they were early on. They won their last game here and they've had this one circled. Note that they'll honoring the 2002 Championship team today, which will help pack in the fans and which should make for a more raucous environment. Off Thursday's win at Illinois, the Buckeyes could be ripe for a letdown. Note that they're 4-7 ATS after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. That 3-point win at Illinois notwithstanding, the Buckeyes have been mostly mediocre on the road. Prior to last season's loss here, the Terps had beaten the Buckeyes four straight times here. The home team is still 4-1 ATS the past five in the series. I'm happy to grab the points but I see Maryland rising to the occasion and scoring the outright win. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Wizards are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team. Note that all of those losses came on the road. Here at home, the Cavs are 18-9 SU and 17-9-1 ATS, holding visiting teams to only 99.7 points, per game. That's the best mark in the entire NBA. Note that the Cavs are 7-1-1 ATS after playing their previous three or more games on the road. Not only do the Cavs have the venue in their favor but they've also got the schedule working in their favor. They had last night off while the Wizards are off a 2-OT loss against the Spurs. Indeed, this isn't a "typical" b2b spot, as last night's game was extra taxing. Having lost two of this season's three h2h meetings, the Cavs have a score to settle. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NEVADA. I've been waiting for this one ever since Wyoming won, at Nevada, last month. The Wolf Pack, 2-1 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss, have been too. The Cowboys, who lost at CSU on Wednesday, are 0-2 ATS when off a Mountain West loss. In both cases, despite being favored, they've had their hands full the next game. Over the past few weeks, Nevada has quietly been playing very well on the road. Last road game, the Pack won by 30 points. In their previous road game, they won by double-digits, at Utah State. Before that, they lost by only two, at San Diego State. Last season's two games here were both decided by seven points or less. Going back further finds the the Pack have won four of their last seven visits here and that all three of the losses were by seven or less. Expect the revenge-minded Wolf Pack to again play their hosts tough, taking the game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I like how this one sets up for the home team. After playing four straight on the road, the Red Wolves returned home and were upset by Coastal Carolina on Wednesday. They're 4-2 SU/ATS their last six off a conference loss though and a profitable 16-9 ATS their last 25 in that situation. They're 11-3 ATS their last 14 off all SU losses and 20-7-1 ATS their last 28, after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Red Wolves are also an outstanding 20-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons, excluding pushes, when playing with one day's rest in between games, 6-1 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight in that situation. They're going to be fired up to avenge a road loss at App. State. While the Mountaineers are below .500 on the road where they average 65.1 ppg, the Wolves are 9-2 at home, where they avg 75.7 ppg. Lay the small number and expect a win and cover for the revenge-minded Red Wolves. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I believe that the break came at the right time for the Hornets. They'd been struggling and the time off will have provided a chance to get healthy, regroup, and recharge. The Raptors may not have appreciated the break so much, as they'd been playing well. Toronto is 3-5 SU/ATS the past eight times it played with three or more day's rest in between games. Note that the Hornets were off b2b OT losses, prior to the break. So, it wasn't like they weren't fighting. Tonight, they play with 'double-revenge,' as the Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. The most recent of those came earlier this month, when the Hornets were really struggling. They'll be looking for some payback here. Note that prior to this season's two games, the Hornets were a perfect 5-0 ATS their previous five against Toronto. The Hornets returned from their Christmas break and promptly won their next game by 24 points. I look for their best effort again this evening, as they move to 3-1 ATS their past four, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Grizzlies won by double-digits when these teams met at Montana. Tonight, playing at home, I expect the revenge-minded Thunderbirds to return the favor. Montana is just 4-9 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 74.7 to 66.5. On the other hand, Southern Utah is 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by a 82.5 to 69.8 average score. The Thunderbirds are 10-7 ATS the past 17 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Grizzlies, who have instate rival Montana State on deck, will be playing their second straight on the road. The last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost by a score of 86-63. That was at Idaho State and this is a much tougher venue than that. With the Grizzlies 1-6 ATS their last seven as road underdogs, expect a double-digit win for the revenge-minded home team. 

I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. Off three straight road losses, the Huskies will be happy to return home. While they've really struggled to win on the road, they've been respectable here at home. They beat Towson their last time on this floor. The Cougars are off b2b losses of their own. Last time out, they lost a tough 80-77 decision. They give up more than 77 ppg on the road and they're 5-7 ATS their last 12, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. Playing at home, the Cougars won big in this season's first meeting. The Huskies, 3-1 ATS the last four times that they attemped to avenge a road loss, haven't forgotten. Prior to that, the Huskies had beaten them five straight times. Look for them to bounce back and move to 5-1 ATS their last six in the series. 

I'm playing on UC SANTA BARBARA. Homecourt means a lot to both these teams. Playing at home, Long Beach State took this season's first meeting. This evening, I expect the revenge-minded Gauchos to return the favor. When playing on the road, the Beach are getting outscored by an average score of 76.7 to 71.2. On the other hand, the Gauchos outscore visiting teams by an average of 76.7 to 59.6. The Gauchos hit a dominant 50.8% of their field goals here while visiting teams only connect on 38% of theirs. Long Beach State has been on an extended ATS winning streak. This will mark a third straight true road game though, the first time LBSU has been in that scheduling situation this season. The first of those came at Hawaii and the most recent was only 48 hours ago. Playing at perhaps the toughest venue in the conference, expect it to catch up to the Beach tonight, the revenge-minded Gauchos pulling away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LSU. The Gamecocks are off an exciting OT victory. They won't be able to keep it up against a powerful LSU team which is currently hitting on all cylinders. The Tigers dominated Georgia last time out, their third straight win. Darius Days, who had a double-double for the Tigers commented: "When we have all our pieces, we're very hard to beat." While the Gamecocks are fighting hard, they're still a work in progress and they're not going to be ready for the red hot team which they'll encounter this afternoon. Note that the favorite is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight in the series. Going back further finds that the road team is 12-5-1 ATS the past 18 meeting. This has not been a good role for the Gamecocks; they're 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the past five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Tigers are 50-9 SU the past 59 times that they were listed as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ASTON VILLA. The Villans have revenge on their minds as they lost 3-2 at Watford, back in August. They've dominated the Hornets here though and they'll settle for nothing less than a victory against one of the weakest teams in the league. The Hornets haven't scored a single goal in their last four matches. While it's possible that the Hornets score in this one, they won't be able to keep Villa from doing so; Watford has conceded 43 goals in 23 matches. Villa badly needs a victory and a visit from Watford is just what the doctor ordered. Payback time. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Nuggets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss last time out and having dropped three of four, the Warriors are going to be all business tonight. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Nuggets beat them here, just after Christmas. The Warriors have long had their number here though, winning 34 of the past 50 meetings here. Tonight, they'll return to their winning ways in the series. Note that the Warriors are an outstanding 59-39 ATS in the 'revenge' role the past 2+ seasons, 12-5 ATS (15-2 SU) their last 17. Also, note that GSW didn't have Klay Thompson for the first meeting. The Nuggets are off a 10-point win. However, that game was played at Denver and it came against lowly Orlando. Big difference from what they'll encounter here. Also, note that the Nuggets are 6-8-1 ATS their last 15, when off a double-digit win and 27-38-2 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. While the Nuggets did manage the upset here earlier, they're only mediocre (16-15) on the road while the Warriors are dominant (26-5) at home. The Nuggets get outscored (slightly) on the road while the Warriors outscore visiting teams by an average of 113.5 to 101.3. Obviously, Jokic is a load. He'll put up big numbers, as per usual. Tonight, however, that won't be enough. Curry and co. resume their dominance in the series with a double-digit victory.

I'm playing on FLORDIA GULF GOAST.  I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Eagles are off an OT win, the type of victory which can provide a team with positive momentum. That was their fourth straight victory. Last time that they were off an OT win, they won their next game by double-digits. On the other hand, the Owls are off a tough 2-point loss, the type of defeat which can be deflating to a team. The Owls won 77-53 in this season's earlier meeting. The Eagles don't get blown out like that often and they've had this game circled, as a result. With a current O/U line of 146 or 146.5, note that the Owls are just 4-7 ATS (0-11 SU!) the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. During the same span, the Eagles were 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU!) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. Payback time. 

I'm playing on NEVADA. Both teams have struggled lately. The Wolf Pack have considerably more talent though and they got back on track in a big way last game. They went on the road and beat Utah State by double-digits, avenging an earlier ugly home loss. That's the type of victory which can provide postitive momentum and I expect that to be the case here. The Spartans, on the other hand, are off yet another double-digit loss. The worst team in the conference has now dropped 12 straight, the vast majority of those losses were of the "blowout variety." These teams will play again, at San Jose State, on Thursday. Knowing this to be the case and with their own losing streak only recently finished, the Wolf Pack will keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Laying -15.5, the Wolfpack beat the Spartans by 18 in the last meeting. I see an even bigger margin of victory happening tonight. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets won big in this season's earlier meeting, at Charlotte. I expect them to give their hosts all that they can handle again this evening. The Wolves were fortunate to eke out a cover at Indiana on Sunday. This will be their first game back home from a road trip. Note that they play tomorrow, too. The Hornets, who have tomorrow off, have had the past couple of days off. They last played on 2/12. That's noteworthy as they're 5-1 ATS the past six times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 10-4-1 ATS their last 15 in that situation. The Hornets, who hammered the Wolves here last season, won by 22 the last time that they played on the road. In fact, they're 3-0 ATS on the road since 1/26, two big wins and a cover at Boston. They score 115.4 ppg on the road compared to Minnesota's 109.2 at home. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. Admittedly, the Bears have underachieved so far this season. There's a long way to go though. Their sub-par results have kept this line very low, despite the fact that they're (arguably) a more talented team, playing at home. The Bears already won the first meeting, at South Carolina State. Remember, Morgan State was the preseason favorite to win the conference with the #1 ranked backcourt and #2 ranked frontcourt. While the Bulldogs are averaging a respectable 70.6 ppg on the road, the Bears are outscoring visiting teams by a 90.6 to 69 average score, here at Morgan State. The Bulldogs have come a long way from last year but they're still not ready to go on the road and beat the Bears. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on LA. This pointspread is higher than a field goal. Many of the previous playoff games have been decided on the game's final play; both these teams just won by three. That's going to make it tempting, for many, to back the underdog. That sentiment, in my opinion, is helping to keep the line lower than it easily could have been and providing us with value on the favorite. 

The Bengals are a fun team to watch and they deserve enormous credit for getting here. They've got a very good young coach, an excellent young kicker, a young QB who is playing well and who has a young superstar receiver to throw the ball to. 

Notice the word that I kept using to describe the Bengals? "Young." This is all new to them. Until now, they've played without feeling any pressure. Now, having two weeks to realize the huge stage that they'll be on will change that. 

While Burrow and the Bengals may feel that they'll be back here again in the future, Stafford, Donald and the Rams know that their time is now. They may not get another opportunity. 

I've often found that teams, players and coaches "need to lose, before they can win." I like that the Rams have "come close" in recent seasons. I like that Stafford had to toil for all those years in Detroit. Don't be surprised when he's awarded the SB MVP. 

As exciting as the Bengals are, in my opinion, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. The numbers are close but the Rams score more points and they allow less. The Rams put up those superior numbers against an arguably much tougher schedule. While some may not be impressed by the fact that they had to comeback to beat the 49'ers, keep in mind that SF was a team which had their number. The NFC West, as whole, was extremely tough. Three teams had at least 11 wins. LA, SF and Arizona combined for 37 wins themselves; Seattle is always dangerous too. The Bengals AFC North, on the other hand, arguably had a down year. Cincinnati had 11 wins but no other team had more than nine. The Steelers weren't as tough as normal, the Ravens lost Lamar to injury. The Browns dealt with issues all season. The Bengals also benefited from facing teams like the Jets, Lions and Jaguars. The Rams non-div. slate included games against the likes of the Packers, Bucs and Colts.

Remember, the Rams made Kyler Murray look scared in their playoff opener. Next, they bloodied Brady en route to knocking off the defending SB champs. 

Of course, the fact that the game is being played at SoFi Stadium also figures to help the Rams. Being in their home city, they'll be able to avoid a lot of the hype and distractions that come along with the SB. The Rams are very well-coached and I believe that it's "their time." No more comebacks for the Bengals Rams roll.

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers painfully blew the cover in Friday's loss to the Cavs. Despite the fact that they ultimately lost by seven, I liked what I saw from the new lineup. Now, they've got a game under their belt, I'm expecting their best effort this afternoon. The T-Wolves have been a bit of a streaky team. Currently, they're at the end of a road trip and off b2b double-digit losses. They allowed 132 and 134 points in those games. That's noteworthy as the Wolves are only 10-20-1 ATS (10-21 SU) the past 31 times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 21-39-1 ATS in that situation. This season's earlier meeting, played at Minnesota, came down to the wire. The Wolves won by two. The previous meeting, which was the most recent here at Indiana, was also very close. The Pacers won by four. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the past five in the series. Though they've struggled against teams from the East, the Pacers are a profitable 15-6 ATS against Western Conference teams. Grab the points.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While both clubs are playing their second game in two days, not all b2b spots are equal. The Cavs had to fight really hard to come back to win at Indiana last night. Stepping up in class to face the 76'ers, I expect last night's game to take a toll on them today. The 76'ers also played last night. However, they had an easier win than Cleveland. Also, they didn't have to travel at all, as their game was here. Additionally and importantly, the 76'ers had two nights off, prior to the b2b situation. That's not the case for the Cavs, as they played Wednesday. So, this makes it three games in four days for Cleveland but not for Philadelphia. The 76'ers won by 20 the last time that these teams met. Schedule in their favor, I see them also winning this one by double-digits. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers will look a lot different tonight. I expect the new additions to provide an immediate spark. These teams just met at Cleveland, on 2/6. Playing at home, the Cavs got the win and cover. The Cavs also beat the Pacers (by only four) when the teams played at Cleveland, on 1/2. The revenge-minded Pacers have finally have homecourt in their favor tonight though; they've had their way with the Cavs here over the years. They've had the past couple of days off and they also get tomorrow off. On the other hand, the Cavs played Wednesday and they've got a big showdown with the 76'ers on the deck tomorrow night. With the Pacers a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, I'm grabbing the points

I'm playing on MANHATTAN. The Hawks won big when these teams met at Monmouth. Playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Jaspers to give them all that they can handle. Note that two meetings here last season were both very close, decided by two and five points, respectively. The Hawks haven't been playing well lately. They're 1-4 ATS their last five games, hitting only 37.5% of their field goals, during that 5-game stretch. Last time out, the Hawks got destroyed 83-58 by Marist, a team which Manhattan recently defeated. (The Hawks were also hammered by Marist earlier in the season and followed up the loss by losing their next game.) On the season, the Hawks average 68 ppg on the road, while hitting 43% of their field goals. On the other hand, the Jaspers average 75.7 ppg at home while connecting on 49.4% of their field goals. The Hawks are 4-7-1 ATS their last 12 as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6.5 range. During that span, the Jaspers are 4-2 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three games. Grab the points with the revenge-minded home team. 

I'm playing on FSU. Both teams are on 4-game losing streaks. Playing at home, Florida State will be the team that snaps its skid. Due largely to injury issues, the Seminoles have under-achieved so far this season. This is still a really well-coached and talented team though. The same cannot be said of Pittsburgh. I expect a date with the Panthers, 0-5 ATS their last five as road underdogs, to prove to be just what the doctor ordered. Note that all five of those road losses came by a minimum of 13 points, most by a lot more than that. Yes, the Noles remain banged-up. They're a deep team though and that depth will serve them well here. Keep in mind that the Panthers scored only 47 points in getting blown out last time. As Pitt coach Jeff Capel acknowledged after that game: "... It's not going to get easier ... " While the Panthers average less than 60 ppg on the road, the Noles still average a respectable 76.6 ppg at home. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS the past four in the series. The Noles were laying -10.5 for the last meeting here and won by 15. Desperate for a victory, they won't let this opportunity slip by. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The T-Wolves just faced the Pistons in b2b games. To their credit, they won and covered both. However, both games were a lot closer than the scores indicated; the Wolves were arguably fortunate to cover in both. Either way, games against the Pistons tend to make teams look a little better than they actually are. I feel that the Wolves are a little over-valued in this one and I expect the Kings to give them all that they can handle. The Kings are quietly playing well themselves. They're 3-0 ATS in February, 2-0 SU their last two home games. They've got more home wins than Minnesota has road wins. They're also 5-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. They beat the Wolves the last time that the teams met here and I see them scoring the upset again this evening. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Falcons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a blowout loss at Utah State, the Rebels will be looking to take out their anger on someone. They're 3-1 ATS/4-0 SU off a conference loss. The Utah State loss was the Rebels' third double-digit defeat since 12/4. After the first, they bounced back with a 20-point home win. After the second, they bounced back and beat a strong Colorado State team, on the road, by 14. Air Force, which is off b2b double-digit losses and which is averaging only 56 ppg on the road, is just 1-6 ATS the past seven times it was a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. The Rebels beat Nevada by 11 the last time that they were on this floor. They beat Air Force 80-52 the last time that the teams played here. Knowing that their next two are on the road, look for the Rebels to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN COLORADO. These teams just met on Saturday, at Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks had a great shot at holding serve at home, as they had a 5-point lead at halftime. Ultimately, however, the Bears won by three. Having come that close, only to fall short, stings and will take a toll on the Lumberjacks. They had their opportunity to salvage a split in this 2-game home-and-home series but they failed to capitalize. Now, that opportunity has passed them by. The Bears are the superior team and they're considerably stronger at home. They average 82.2 ppg (48.8% field goals) here. The Lumberjacks, on the other hand, average 62.7 ppg (38.6% field goals) on the road. With an O/U line currently in the high 140s, note that the Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS (0-5 SU) the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 145 to 149.5. The Bears had their wake-up call Saturday. Tonight, they'll deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. These teams met on 1/25, at Toronto. Playing at home, the Raptors won and covered. With this evening's rematch being played at Charlotte, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to return the favor.  Yes, the Raptors have played well since the earlier meeting and they're off a big win. Those results have been factored in to the line though as we're now able to get Charlotte as an underdog, as a result. Also, note that Toronto is just 3-8 ATS when off a double-digit win. The Hornets were -2.5 point favorites the last time that they hosted the Raptors. They won by 10. On the season, the Hornets are 14-10 (15-9 ATS) at home, the Raptors are 12-11 on the road. A few recent losses notwithstanding, the Hornets are 17-7 ATS their last 24 against teams with a winning record. The Hornets are also 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss and 8-4-1 ATS (9-4 SU) after having allowed 105 or fewer points, in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and cool off the Raptors.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans again on Monday, at New Orleans, the Rockets are going to go all out to "hold serve" at home this evening. They already hammered the Pelicans in this season's earlier meeting here and they won their last game here (Cleveland) by double-digits. I backed them in that one and feel that this is another strong spot to do so. The Pelicans are at the end of a road trip. Even with a couple of recent wins, they're still 9-19 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 109.3 to 103. I noted the following before the win over the Cavs: "Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening ..." In the front end of a home-and-home set, I feel the same way here. The Pelicans are only 6-10 ATS against teams with a losing record and they're just 5-10 ATS (3-12 SU!) when playing a game with an O/U line above 220. Grab the points but expect the outright win.

I'm playing on STANFORD. While they came up short vs. Washington State last time out, the Cardinal have won three of their last five. They nearly beat the Huskies up in Seattle. Washington ultimately won by three points. Catching them on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Cardinal to get some payback. The game in Seattle had an O/U line in the low 140s. With today's rematch being played at Stanford, where a stingy Cardinal team can more effectively dictate the pace, the O/U line is in the mid 130s. That's noteworthy as Washington is an ugly 11-27 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Note that Washington allows 76.6 ppg on the road while Stanford allows 66.4 ppg at home. While the Huskies won at Cal last time out, they lost by 14, the last time that they were off a road win. The Cardinal, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS its last three when attempting to avenge a road loss, have dominated the Huskies here for years. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the past five meetings overall and they won the most recent meeting here at Stanford by 16. I'm expecting them to pull away for another win and cover this afternoon. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The home team has taken both meetings so far this season. The Thunder won by two at OKC. That was followed by a 16-point win by the Kings, here at Sacramento. The previous two games in the series, here at Sacramento, also resulted in big wins for the Kings. Sacramento won by 16 and 28 points. Tonight, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the Kings also have the schedule working for them. They had last night off while the Thunder are off a win up in Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Thunder will also be playing their third game in the past four days. It's this type of tough scheduling spot where the injury to Gilgeous-Alexander (and others) will catch up to them. Playing the second of b2b games, the Kings lost (but covered) at Golden State last time out. No shame in that. Prior to that, in their last home game, they beat Brooklyn by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on North Dakota. These teams have equally poor W/L records. The Mavericks are 4-19, the Fighting Hawks are 4-20. Those similar numbers have kept the pointspread reasonably low. While I'm aware that the Mavs have enjoyed success as small road underdogs over the years, I feel that this line could easily be higher. The reality is that the Fighting Hawks are stronger on both sides of the ball this season, at least when playing on their home floor. They average 72.9 ppg at home and allow 72.5. The Mavs, on the other hand, score 59.2 ppg on the road and allow 85.3. They're 0-11 away from home. The Mavs already hammered the Hawks, at Omaha. They also won last season's first meeting. However, North Dakota bounced back and won the second game by double-digits. Today, the revenge-minded Fighting Hawks will leave it all on the floor, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Admittedly, the Rockets have been inconsistent. However, they've had their moments. Recall the earlier 7-game winning streak. They've beaten teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz. When they're fully motivated and at their best, they can actually be pretty good. I expect that to be the case this evening. This is the final leg of a 4-game homestand. The first three games were against tough Western Conf. opponents and the Rockets stumbled. They don't want to go winless in the four games. They also have a score to settle as the Cavs hammered them, at Cleveland. That was the front end of a b2b for the Rockets; they had a revenge game against the Knicks on deck the next day. That's not the case here. They had yesterday off and they get tomorrow off. Their full attention and focus is on the task at hand. Only two of the Cavs' past seven games have come on the road. They lost both those games; they're just 1-5 ATS their past six overall. Rubio and Sexton are out for the season but the Cavs are also expected to be without Markkanen and Garland. While the Cavs eked out a 93-90 home win last time out, they're just 15-39-2 ATS (14-42 SU) the past 56 times that they scored 100 or less in their previous game. I'll happily grab the points but I look for the revenge-minded Rockets to score the upset. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. I used the Bonnies as my A-10 GOY on 1/15, in their game against VCU. Listed as small favorites, they hammered the Rams by a 73-53 score. I started my analysis of that game by saying the following: "Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by less than four points ..." I provided that excerpt as I feel much the same way. Once again, the Bonnies' struggles at the betting window have kept this line reasonably low, providing excellent value. Once again, I expect a visit from a quality team to be "just what the doctor ordered" to get the Bonnies playing up to their potential. The Bonnies are now 7-1 at home. Despite having hosted some tough teams, they're outscoring their guests by an average score of 77 to 67. The Wildcats embarrassed the Bonnies here in 2020. However, the Bonnies bounced back to win both last year's meetings, including an 11-point win on this floor. Expect them to improve to 40-10 SU the last 50 times that they were favored, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Celtics handled the Heat early in the season, a 95-78 blowout at Miami. While it may be tempting to back the revenge-minded Heat, I feel that Miami will have to wait for its chance to get some payback. It took awhile but I really like what I'm seeing from the Celtics right now. They won their last game, at New Orleans, by 10. They also won their last game on this floor by 53 points. They're 3-1 SU/ATS their past four, the lone loss coming at Atlanta, against the red hot Hawks. Note that the Celtics have tomorrow off; they're going to leave it all on the floor this evening. The Heat are generally tough (18-6) at home but they're only mediocre (14-12 SU) on the road. It should be noted that the Heat were just upset by Toronto in their last game and they face those same Raptors again tomorrow. Though they had yesterday off, the Heat will still be playing their fourth game in the past six days. The Celtics are 12-8 ATS their last 20, when off a game where they held their opponent to 105 or fewer points. While I obviously respect the Heat, homecourt in their favor, I say the Celtics build off their strong defensive performance with another win and cover this evening.

I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Rams. I feel that they've exorcised some demons. I like that they dominated the Bucs, blew the lead and found a way to win. I feel that'll serve them well here. Of course, Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. The Rams are going to give him fits. The 49'ers are only here because of some fortunate kick blocks. They won't be so lucky this week though. Keep in mind that they're playing their fourth straight on the road. Forget what happened in the reg. season, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. Expect them to prove it, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Tide have underachieved of late and are off a disappointing loss. However, this is an extremely talented team and I believe that a visit from Baylor will prove to be just what they need to get going. Note that the subpar results are reflected in the line; we're getting extra line value as a result of them. Alabama coach Nate Oats had this to say: "We continue to have these issues with playing up and down to the level of our competition ..." In this case, with such a high profile visitor, I expect them to "play up" to their competition. Keep in mind that this game will be played at Tuscaloosa; the Tide are 9-1 here on the season. The lone loss was by four points vs. Auburn. While the Tide were favored for the Auburn game, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. To their credit, the Bears have played really well. They've absolutely got another excellent team. That said, they lost a lot from last season, as they only returned one starter. This afternoon, those personnel losses catch up to them as the Tide rise to the occasion and avenge a close loss Waco, three years ago.

I'm playing on ORLANDO. It doesn't happen often but the Magic find themselves listed as (small) favorites. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. These teams have already met twice. The Pistons won both games. Both those games were at Detroit though. Playing with "double-revenge" will provide the Magic with some added motivation. While the Magic defense has admittedly been poor at home, the Pistons defense is even worse on the road. They allow 115 ppg, when playing away from Detroit. Host teams make 48.8% of their field goals against the Pistons. (That's the worst road defense, in terms of opponents field goal percentage) in the entire NBA. While they stumbled against the Clippers last time out, the Magic hammered the Bulls 114-95 in their previous game. That's arguably more impressive than anything that the Pistons have recently accomplished. They're 1-5 their last six, 0-3 their last three. The lone win came by two against Sacramento. The Magic are actually a solid 27-18-1 ATS (33-13 SU) as favorites the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on that 60% record on Friday evening. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Pirates are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams are at the opposite end of the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are arguably the best team. Certainly, they're among the best. The Pirates are, perhaps, the worst. Indeed, they scored a mere 36 points in their last game, giving up 79. Yes, the Tigers have been dealing with some missing players and that's led to them going through a tough stretch. Still, I like the way that they eked out a road win at Tulsa last game. Now, back home with confidence restored and stepping down in class to face an inferior opponent, I expect them to deliver a blowout. Added motivation stems from the fact they lost by a single point, less than two weeks ago, at East Carolina. Note that the Tigers are 8-4 ATS their last 12, when attempting to avenge a road loss. Off their dismal effort at Houston, note that the Pirates are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they scored 60 or less in their previous game. I say this one gets ugly. 

I'm playing on SETON HALL. The Golden Eagles have been playing very well. They beat the Pirates by a single point in this season's earlier meeting, at Marquette. The Pirates found out that winning on the road, in the Big East, can be tough. This evening, I expect the Eagles to discover the same. While the Eagles outscore teams by a modest 71.7 to 70.4 average score on the road, the Pirates outscore visiting teams by a dominating 81.6 to 66 margin. The Pirates just lost (badly) to St. John's after having beaten the Red Strom two days earlier. (Sweeping teams in the Big East can be tough, too.) Their previous four home games were against the likes of Villanova, UConn, Rutgers and Texas. So, they've hosted some tough recent opponents. While its a very competitive Big East conference this year, the Pirates are one of the stronger teams in it. They'll remind everyone of that this evening, improving to 10-1 ATS their last 11, when off a double-digit loss at home. 

I'm playing on UCLA. These are two strong teams and this should be a good game. Though I don't expect to need them, getting points, at home, with the Bruins is providing us with excellent value. Note that UCLA is 3-0 ATS the past three times it was a home underdog of three or less, 13-7 ATS its last 20 in that role. The Bruins were slight favorites when they hosted the Wildcats last season. They won by 14. The Wildcats are off a game Sunday and they're playing their third road game since 1/20. They're just 9-12 ATS their past 21, when playing with one day's rest in between games. UCLA played Saturday, so has had an extra day's worth of rest. While the Cats can score with the best of them, the Bruins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more points per game, through the first 15 games of the season. Note that while Arizona averages more ppg overall, the Bruins average more per game at home, than the Cats do on the road. The Bruins had some early season issues with injury and Covid delays etc. However, this team is one of the best in the country and its been slowly rounding into form. A visit from the Wildcats and fans at Pauley Pavilion for the first time in two months will be just what the doctor ordered. *10 UCLA

I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors won't have all hands on deck but they're still going to have enough to take care of business at home tonight. While the Mavs are a mediocre 12-11 away from Dallas, the Warriors are a dominant 21-4 at home. Having been embarrassed at Dallas earlier this month, the night that Dirk's number got retired, and also the last time that the Mavs visited here, the Warriors will be all business tonight. The Warriors are 9-5 ATS (12-2 SU) their last 14, when playing with revenge. The Mavs, meanwhile, are just 7-11 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer points in their previous game. Curry played poorly in the earlier meeting but he'll be better tonight. Payback time. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. The Red Raiders are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Kansas plays with revenge from earlier loss at Lubbock. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. With Kentucky on deck, they're going to want a big win here. I watched the Red Raiders win over WVU closely and they were fortunate to get the cover. Yet, that result has worked in four favor by helping keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been.That was at home. Now, they're at their least favorite venue; the Jayhawaks 14-3 ATS (16-1 SU) their last 17 as a host in the series. The Raiders won't be helped that they're also suddenly dealing with some Covid issues. Expect the revenge-mined Jayhawks to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, on Monday evening

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. Prior to the season, the Bengals were projected to finish ahead of the Eagles. Now, though we're still in January, the Eagles are laying a handful of points against them, despite the game being played at Idaho State. I believe that's asking too much. These teams split a pair of meetings last year; both were at Eastern Washington. The Eagles brought back one starter from that team, the Bengals brought back all five. So, they know that they can compete with and defeat this team. The Bengals' last three games were against Weber State (twice) and Southern Utah. Those are the strongest teams in the conference. So, they weren't expected to win. The Eagles aren't in that class though. I say the Bengals bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their last 10, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets are off a loss. After this game, they've got a long road trip. It starts at Detroit, with a rematch against the Pistons. That makes taking care of business on their home floor absolutely mandatory. Catching the Pistons at the end of a road trip, I expect the motivated Nuggets to deliver a blowout. The Nuggets were laying -11.5 when they hosted the Pistons last year. They jumped out to a 20-point lead by halftime and cruised to a 15-point win. Tonight, off the Memphis loss, I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas. The Pistons are 4-20 away from Detroit and get outscored by a 115-101 avg score. Host teams hit 48.7% of their field goals against Detroit; terrible defense. This remains one of the tougher venues in the league. Expect a one-sided affair. 

I'm playing on GB. I love how this one sets up. The Packers are at home; a January game at Lambeau, against a team from California. The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare. The 49'ers are off a hard-fought win at Dallas. Now, they'll play another road game and will be doing so on a short week. Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in history, is on a mission. Garoppolo isn't on his level, at the best of times. However, he's banged-up. So are important players like Bosa and Warner. They're all expected to play. However, the short week won't make things any easier. The Packers, who won at SF earlier in the season, were the only team in the league to have a perfect home record. They won 37-10 last time that they played here, finishing with a 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record here. This will be the 49'ers fourth road game in the past five weeks. Playing at the toughest venue in the league, expect it to catch up with them. Packers win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on OKC. Off a sub-par showing last night, the Thunder will be hungry to bounce back with a better performance. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Cavs narrowly beat them, at OKC, only a week ago. Even with last night's loss, the Thunder have still quietly gone an outstanding 55-33-2 ATS their last 90 road games. They're 9-6 ATS off a double-digit loss and 9-4 ATS after having lost their previous three. The Cavs are also off a blowout loss. They're only 25-44-3 ATS (17-55 SU) their past 72, off a double-digit loss though. While the Cavs may be the fresher team, OKC is the healthier one. The Thunder won here last season and I expect them to bring their best effort again tonight. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. In a game that could be close, I'm happy to get points. That said, I expect the Bears to win this one outright. Both teams have strong frontcourts, perhaps the two best in the MEAC. However, the Bears also possess arguably the best backcourt in the conference. While the team is improved this season, Howard isn't used to laying points on the road. Why? The Bison are 1-5 SU their last six on the road, 2-19 their last 21. Off a tough loss against Notre Dame, a game where they left it all on the floor and their third straight defeat, the Bison still could easily be thinking about what could have been. While the competition has admittedly been soft, a 3-point loss here last game notwithstanding, the Bears have been tough at home. They've handled Howard here over the years; I look for them to dig deep and get it done.

I'm playing on UTAH. The Pistons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. On a rare slide, 0-2 their last two and 1-6 SU/ATS their last six, the Jazz are going to be angry. Make that "really angry," when considering that one of those losses came by double-digits, at Detroit. Utah was laying -11 for that game, too. So, that was a game they were absolutely expected to win, which will make getting some "proper payback" mandatory for them tonight. Yes, the Jazz will be without Mitchell. That's helped keep the line a little lower than it otherwise could have been though. He's a strong player but the Jazz have plenty of backcourt depth. The Pistons, on the other hand, are less equipped to deal with their missing players. The Pistons eked out a 133-131 win at Sacramento last game, helping to win our 'over' play. They're just 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight off an 'upset' win though, 10-23-2 ATS (5-30 SU) their last 35 in that situation. The Jazz have dominated the Pistons for years. They're 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS the past five meetings here, three of those victories coming by more than 20 points. Look for the revenge-minded Jazz to deliver another one-sided blowout.

I'm playing on LIU. The Seahawks are tough. No question about it. They returned everyone from the team which finished first in the NEC (regular season) last year. They've got arguably the top backcourt in the conference. That said, the Sharks may have the top frontcourt and their pace and style gives the Seahawks trouble. The Sharks faced these same Seahawks twice last season. With all the Covid issues in NYC, both games were at Wagner. Yet, LIU won one outright (77-66) and lost the other by only two points. Now, the Sharks get to host the Seahawks. That's noteworthy as they're undefeated here on the season, 4-1 ATS in lined games. Off a 95-64 beating of Farleigh Dickinson, the Sharks are full of confidence. While Wagner averages 64.7 ppg on the road, LIU averages 87.8 ppg at home. The Sharks won by eight the last time that the teams met here. Grab the points and expect them to again give their guests everything that they can handle.

I'm playing on DRAKE. The Bulldogs have been winning but not covering. Those results have worked in our favor, as they've kept the pointspread reasonable. As I'm expecting a double-digit win, I feel we're getting excellent value. Note that Drake is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three, as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. A few narrow ATS losses notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are the real deal. They returned every starter from a team that went 15-3 in the MVC last season, 26-5 overall. The Braves have lost three straight on the road. Last time out, they lost by nine, at Illinois State. This is a much tougher venue and Bulldogs are far stronger than the Redbirds. The Braves are now 10-17-2 ATS (7-22 SU) on the road, the past 2+ seasons. The Braves average less than 70 ppg on the road, the Bulldogs avg more than 80 at home. The Bulldogs beat them by 13 the last time the teams played on this floor. Don't be surprised by an even greater margin of victory tonight. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The T-Wolves have been playing well for some time now while the Hawks have been struggling. This one sets up nicely for Atlanta though. The Hawks finally turned the corner last game, as they beat the Bucks. I backed them in that game and stated that a visit from the defending champs, a playoff rematch, was just what they needed to get going. Off that much-needed win, the Hawks had yesterday off. I expect Young and co. to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While the Hawks were resting yesterday, the Wolves played an emotional (2-point win) game at MSG. I like that they had to really fight hard and I also like that they won. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, after having won the previous night, the Wolves scored only 88 points. This will mark their third game in the past four days. Minnesota is just 66-101 ATS over the years, against teams from the Southeast, 1-4 ATS this season. The Hawks already won big at Minnesota and they swept the Wolves last season. Schedule in their favor, expect them to continue their recent success in the series this evening. 

I'm playing on CSU BAKERSFIELD. The Mustangs were a dismal 1-15 in conference play last season, 4-20 overall. To their credit, they've already matched the four wins this season and have already won a Big West game. That said, it's still going to be another long season and tonight, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Roadrunners have started 0-2 in conference play. With four of their next five on the road, they know that they absolutely need to take advantage of a visit from the Mustangs. The Mustangs managed 82 points last game. However, that was at home and they haven't shot well on the road. Also, note that they're 1-7 SU the past eight time that they scored 80 or more, in their previous game. While Cal Poly averages 60.3 ppg (39.8% fg) shooting on the road, Bakersfield averages 74.6 ppg (45.9% fg) at home. These teams met twice last January. The Roadrunners won by 13 and 17 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory.

I'm playing on CHELSEA. While the Blues won't be winning the league title, I expect them to be hungry for the victory today. Angry off the loss to Man. City, they haven't forgotten that Brighton stole precious points, by earning a late draw, against them to close out 2021. Including that result, Chelsea has 10 wins and three draws, in 13 all-time (league) matches against Brighton. That's the most that Chelsea has ever faced a team without losing. Note that Chelsea averages two goals per game and that Brighton averages one goal per game. With the Seagulls dealing with a number of key injuries, Chelsea will extend it's unbeaten streak in the series today. Only this time, the Blues won't settle for the draw. 

I'm playing on LA. The Jazz certainly looked dominant at Denver last night. However, they were catching the Nuggets playing the second of b2b games. The shoe is on the other foot this evening though. The Jazz played in the altitude of Denver last night while the Lakers rested. They've been mediocre, at best, when playing the second of b2b games. They're 3-4 SU/ATS in that situation this season, 14-16 ATS their past 30. Last time that the Jazz played the second of b2b games, they got pounded by the Pacers. The Lakers are going to be desperate. They've still won four of their past five games here. They're also 6-2 ATS their last eight against the Jazz. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. I really like the setup for the Huskies. I also really like that we don't need to worry about laying any points. The Huskies just finished a lengthy road trip, one which dated back to last year. They stumbled in their first game back home. They're absolutely going to be desperate for a victory. Keep in mind that the Huskies brought back most of the team which went 8-2 in conference action last year. They're very well-coached and they won't have forgotten that the Blue Hens upset them here last season, or that the Blue Hens hammered them at Delaware last year. I respect the Blue Hens. They also returned a lot from last year and they should be fairly solid within the CAA. That said, this is a tough spot for them. While the Huskies will now be playing their second straight home game, the Blue Hens will be playing the final game of a 5-game road trip. They'll be starting to get road weary and will be looking forward to finally returning home. Off a loss at Hofstra Saturday, note that the Blue Hens are just 8-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons,when playing with one day or less worth of rest between games. The Huskies are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday evening. 

I'm playing on KC. Of course, Big Ben didn't really mean it when he said: "The Steelers don't stand a chance ... " However, in my opinion, he's right. The Steelers really don't belong here. Rothlisberger has been a warrior and has done many great things. Often under-rated and under-valued, he's come through for me many times over the years, in betting and DFS. However, he's in over his head here. Tomlin is an excellent coach but there's only so much that he can do, when his team is outmatched on both sides of the ball. Mahomes and co. are still capable of scoring quickly, when needed. However, this year's team can take another team's will away with longer drives. That helps keep the defense fresher and allows them to play a lot better. They're going to get a lead and continue to build on it. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Steelers are playing their second road game in two weeks. Last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-10. Speaking of one-sided games, the Chiefs just beat the Steelers 36-10 here a few weeks ago. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on IONA. This is a mismatch. The Gaels are much stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They'll finish at, or near, the top of the MAAC. The Purple Eagles, on the other hand, are likely destined to finish in the middle of the pack, or near the bottom. The Gaels knocked the Eagles out of the (conference) tournament last year, winning by six at a neutral site. This year's Iona team is arguably even stronger. Prior to the season, Rick Pitino acknowledged as much: "... it's a much better team than last year's team." I like that the Gaels have been winning, but not covering, as that has helped in keeping this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. Note that they're 15-8 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. Consider that Iona was just laying -15.5 against Manhattan, a team arguably more talented than Niagara. I also like that Pitino has been unhappy with his team and demanding more. Afte the 8-point win over Manhattan, he was quoted saying: "I don't think we're playing great basketball right now and that bothers me. Where am I at in the season right now? I'm not pleased. It's up to us to do something about it. We're certainly happy with winning any game. But we're not happy with the way we played against Marist. We're not happy with the way we played against Saint Louis. And we're certainly not happy with the way we shot free throws tonight." With a tough game at Monmouth on deck, I say Pitino keeps the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. He'll recognize that a blowout win would be great for morale/momentum and that's what I expect his team to deliver this afternoon.

I'm playing on WEST HAM. These teams are on a different level. The Hammers are surging. They sit in fourth place in the EPL and the two teams behind them are facing each other this weekend. Picking up maximum points against lowly Leeds is imperative. West Ham has scored 39 goals in league play, Leeds has scored 21, while conceding 37. Even if Leeds was healthy, this was going to be a mismatch. However, the Whites are dealing with some serious injury issues and will be without numerous players. This game should go only one way, a convincing victory for the superior squad. 

I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have been off for some time; their last game was on 1/1. That 2-week break came at the right time. At the time, they were road-weary and not playing their best. The break offered time to recharge and regroup. Facing instate rival Idaho in their first game back is ideal. The Bengals are a respectable team which was playing badly. The Vandals are just a bad team. Idaho State brought back five starters from last season. Idaho brought back one. Those experienced Bengal players will be happy to see a team which they beat won both meetings against last season. (One win came by 26 points. The other was by six.) Both teams are 0-4 to start conference play. However, while the Vandals are allowing 88.2 ppg (49.6% fg) in their four loses, the Bengals are allowing just 68.5 ppg (41.5% fg) in theirs. Look for the Bengals to dictate the tempo and for their superior defense to ultimately lead to a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by leass than four points. The Rams are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they road underdogs of three or fewer points. They're 18-29 ATS their last 47 in that role. While the Rams are stingy on defense, they average only 63 points per game on offense. The Bonnies are averaging more than 70, more than 78 per game, here at home. The Bonnies make 47.7% of their field goals here compared to 41.2% on the road for VCU. The last meeting on this floor saw the Bonnies favored by three points. They won by a 70-54 score. The Rams' roll comes to an end here. 

I'm playing on COLGATE. I won with the Raiders in their last game. They crushed Army, 76-57. That victory snapped a losing streak and I expect it to provide positive momentum for the longtime class of the Patriot Conference. The Raiders went 50-16 the past four years in conference play. During that span, they became the first team in conference history to reach the championship game in four straight years. This year's team is flying under the radar at the moment, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Raiders brought back four starters from last year. They're a well-coached and complete team. Navy is indeed tougher than Army. However, the Raiders can absolutely win this game outright. They beat the Midshipmen by seven points, each of the past two meetings. Navy's Greg Summers is questionable. With or without him, expect the Midshipmen to have their hands full the entire way. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the visitors score the outright win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. This is the first of three meetings between these teams, over the next nine days. They'll meet again, at Miami, on Friday. Knowing that the Heat are much better on their home floor (12-4 compared to 13-11) than on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. While the Hawks have really struggled over the past month or so, they're better than those results suggest and they're finally, slowly, getting healthy. Tonight, it's the Heat which will arguably be impacted more by missing players. While they didn't get the result that they wanted, I liked the improved defensive effort from the Hawks last game. Interim coach Jent noted: "I thought overall our defense was good. The transition defense, when can keep people out of transition, we give ourselves a chance. We didn't give the Clippers a fast-break basket in the first half ..." The Hawks won by 15 the last time that the teams played here. I see them digging deep and coming away with a much needed victory, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Rebels are chomping at the bit to get a piece of the Lobos. The Rebels closed 2021 on a roll. They were 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their final four games of the year; all four victories came by double-digits. They rang in 2022 with a close loss to a stingy San Diego State team. Then, they had their game against Air Force postponed. So, this is a team anxious to return to play and to get back to the way it was playing "last year." New Mexico should be the perfect opponent to get this year's first victory against. The Rebels won two 2021 meetings with the Lobos by 30 combined points. Unlike the Aztecs, who held UNLV to 55 points. The Lobos are not a good defensive team. That's particularly true when they're on the road. In five games, away from New Mexico, they're allowing an average of 83.8 points. Opposing teams are connecting on 47% of their field goals, in those games. On the other hand, the Rebels are allowing just 62.5 ppg at home, visiting teams hitting only 37.5% of their field goals. New Mexico lost players Muscadin (left team) and Manuel (suspension) in November and December. Both were expected to be a big part of this season's plans. Prior to the game vs. SDSU, the Rebels had scored 80 or more in three straight. Expect the offense to regain its form and for the Lobos to ultimately be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on NDSU. The Bison have dominated the Pioneers for years. NDSU has won six straight meetings winning by an average of 12 points. These teams are at opposite ends of the Summit Conference again this season. The Bison returned all five starters. In fact, they got back eight of their top nine scorers from last season, including each of their top six. Not many teams can say that. Denver certainly can't. The same Bison players beat Denver by 26 the last time the teams faced each other. While the Pioneers are off a victory, they haven't been able to string them together. All five of their previous victories have been followed by a loss. They even lost to Ottawa. Last time they were off a win, the Pioneers lost their next game by 17 points. The Bison have advantages all over the floor. They're stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They're 4-1 ATS their past five as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NY. After playing at Brooklyn yesterday afternoon, at the end of a long road trip, one which began "last year," I don't expect the Spurs to have much left in the tank this evening. While they recently beat Boston, when playing the second of b2b games, this one sets up differently. Prior to that Boston game, the Spurs had been blown out by Toronto the previous day. They'd also had two days off, prior to that Toronto game. On the other hand, yesterday saw the Spurs lose a heartbreaker. They left it all on the floor and nearly scored the upset. In the end, however, they lost by two points, in OT. So, the first game of the b2b set was far more grueling (and gut-wrenching) this time. Also, unlike the setup for the previous b2b situation, this time, the Spurs are also playing their third game in four days. In fact, this will mark their fifth game in the past seven days. The Knicks, on the other hand, had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, after getting hammered by Boston on Saturday. The Knicks already won, at SA, by a dozen points. While the Spurs would love to avenge that loss, they're just 4-7 ATS (2-9 SU) their last 11, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for the Knicks to have fresher legs and for them to pull away for another double-digit win, improving to 15-8 ATS their last 23, against teams from the Southwest. 

I'm playing on LA. By the time this game kicks off, all the talk of a "tie" should have ended. Either way, I'm not worried about that. When asked about playing for the tie, SD coach Staley noted: "...I think we all respect the game and the NFL shield and the integrity of this game far too much to be complicit in something like that. This game matters too much to too many people, and we want to play our best and be proud of the result one way or another. We're going to do everything we can to go win this game, and play the way we're capable of playing." The Raiders deserve credit for fighting the whole way; it would have been easy to pack it in after Gruden's sudden departure. That said, I don't feel that they're going to be able to keep up with their high-powered guests. That was the case in the first meeting; LA won 28-14. Over their past five games, the Chargers have scored 41, 37, 28, 29 and 34 points. On the other hand, over their past five games, the Raiders have scored 23, 17, 16, 9 and 15 points. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS their last 10, when off two or more consec. wins. They're also 3-7 ATS their last 10, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Chargers roll. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. The Badgers have played well. As per usual, they're solid. Top scorer Johnny Davis is going to be a handful. That said, when the smoke clears, I expect the Badgers to stumble against what I believe to be an undervalued Maryland team. Note that Wisconsin is 8-16 ATS, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. The Terps are loaded themselves. Talented and experienced. Remember, they entered the season with a higher ranking than Wisconsin. Their first two games of 2022 have both been on the road, at tough venues. So, there was no shame in losing both. (They went 1-1 ATS.) They closed out 2021 with b2b double-digit wins here at home though. Backing home, seeking that first conference victory, they're going to be giving it everything they've got. Maryland (interim) coach Danny Manning noted: "We can't wait to get back in front of our fans. We need their energy, their enthusiasm and their love." Look for that energy to prove to the difference, the Terps bouncing back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on OKC. The Thunder are off a defensive dud last time out, as they allowed 135 points to the T-Wolves. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on the 'over.' Those types of games have been rare though, particularly at home. Despite failing to cover in that game, the Thunder are still 9-3 ATS their last 12 games. The Nuggets are 3-5 ATS their last eight. The last time they were on the road, they lost by 14. I had a big play on the Thunder when they upset the Nuggets here on 12/22. Including a 108-94 loss in that game, the Nuggets are 3-2 their last five on the road. However, two of the three victories were by three points. So, only one of their last five road games has been a big win. That came against a terrible Houston team, which was playing the second of b2b games and the Nuggets still won by only 11. The Nuggets score 106 ppg and the Thunder are 13-4 ATS their last 17 against teams which average 108 or fewer points, per game. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I really like how this one sets up for the Red Wolves. Both teams played Thursday. The Red Wolves lost by six to a tough Louisiana team. The Warhawks won by eight against a relatively weak Arkansas Little Rock team. The Red Wolves narrowly missed the cover while the Warhawks covered by a bucket. Thursday's loss notwithstanding, the Red Wolves are a good team. Losses have been few and far between and they've responded to them with victories. Off their loss to Texas Tech, they bounced back and hammered Air Force by 22 points. They're 12-7-1 ATS their last 20, off a conference loss. They're also 15-5 ATS their last 20, excluding pushes, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. On the other hand, ULM is an ugly 4-17 SU the past 21 times it played with one or less day's rest. Arkansas State won both meetings last season and brought back all five starters from that team. The Red Wolves are the stronger, deeper team and will enjoy an advantage inside. Expect a victory. 

I'm playing on PENNSYLVANIA. Both teams have started Ivy League play with a victory. Playing at home, I expect the Quakers to be the team which moves to 2-0. While the Ivy League canceled last season, the Quakers are 9-4 SU (10-3 ATS) at home the past few seasons. During that span, the Big Red are just 4-17 on the road. The Quakers were favored by 11 points the last time that they hosted the Big Red. They won by 14. This year's team is arguably every bit as strong. Prior to the season, Penn coach Donahue noted: "We're more talented actually than we've ever been." While the Big Red are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off a conference win, the Quakers are 5-2 ATS when off a conference win. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday.

I'm playing on VERMONT. The Wildcats have been great at the betting window this season. They've got a solid team this year. However, tonight, they're up against the longtime class of the conference. Expect the Catamounts to remind them of that. New Hampshire was getting pretty excited a few years ago, too. The 2017 team won 20 games. Then, it ran into Vermont in the conf. tournament. Last year, Vermont finished tied for the conf. lead (5th straight year it was first) but lost to Hartford in the conf. tournament. This year's team brought back all five starters and enters America East play with a chip on its shoulder. Both teams have been out of action for quite a while. Vermont last played on 12/22. New Hampshire hasn't played since way back on 12/13 though. That's a long time to be out of action. Last season's first meeting was at NH. Laying -13, the Catamounts won by exactly 13. The game here at Vermont saw the Catamounts favored by 15. They won by 23. Including that result, the home team is 4-0-1 ATS the past five in the series. Expect the Catamounts to make a statement with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers got back on track last game. This should be a 'sweet spot' for them to make it two in a row. Portland is missing a couple of big guns. However, the Heat figure to be missing a lot more. Miami has fought hard, despite being short-handed, in recent games. Jimmy Butler has now been added to the (lengthy) list of missing players though, as he has an ankle injury. Playing the fourth leg of a West Coast road trip, Butler's absence figures to take a lot of fight out of the Heat. The Blazers had four different players score more than 20 points last game, five players scoring in double-figures.  They'll be too much for their short-handed guests to handle. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. The Panthers haven't fared too well as favorites this season. That changed last game though. Laying -11 points against Evansville, for their first game of 2022, the Panthers won by 22. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. This team is loaded, having brought back all five starters from last season. UNI has won four of the past five meetings with the Beacons, formerly known as the Crusaders. All four wins came by double-digits. While the Beacons managed 81 points last time out, they'll scoring far more difficult against the stingy Panthers. UNI is allowing an average of only 61.3 ppg at home. With Valparaiso just 5-11 ATS (4-12 SU) the past 16 times it scored 80 or more in its previous game, expect another double-digit win for the Panthers.

I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. This is a lot of points. Too many, in my opinion. Iowa is off three straight big wins. The last two of those were against weak opposition though. Prior to that, the Hawkeyes had dropped three straight. With the exception of Utah State, the Hawkeyes haven't beaten  a decent team by more than a single point. They beat Virginia by one. However, they lost against Purdue, Iowa St and Illinois. The rest of the schedule, besides that Utah State game, has been easy. So, the 10-3 record is a bit deceiving. Maryland started slowly but has won three straight of its own. That includes a victory over Florida. While the Terps have four losses, none of them came by more than eight points. Note that they're 2-0 ATS (and SU) the past two times that they were road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. The Terps haven't forgotten that that Iowa pounded them last year. The Hawkeyes arguably lost more from last year than Maryland did. Don't be surprised when the Terps return the favor. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. The Kings are playing at home and they've got the much healthier team. Yet, they're still getting points. That shows how bad things have been in Sacramento lately. That said, the Kings did just earn a split with the Mavs and they're 2-1 their last three. This is an excellent spot for them to pick up a victory and I expect them to rise to the occasion. The Heat still have Butler, Lowry and Herro. They're missing nearly everyone else though. To their credit, they beat Houston last time out. Still, their previous game was cancelled, due to not even having enough players. They're still without the likes of Oladipo, Adebayo, Morris, Dedmon, Okpala etc. Its also worth mentioning that the Heat have a "big game" against the Warriors tomorrow night. (The Kings have tomorrow off.) The Heat are just 23-35-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit win. The Kings already had their turn dealing with Covid-issues. They won't show their short-handed guests any sympathy tonight. 

I'm playing on NKU. The Norse dominate this series. They've beaten the Panthers 10 straight times. The average margin of victory was 11 points. The Norse are 4-0 ATS in the last four of those meetings, too. Each victory came by a minimum of nine points. Despite both of last season's meetings being played at Milwaukee, the Norse still won both games by 14 points. The Norse, a rare healthy team, brought back four starters from that team, too. Milwaukee only returned two starters. The Panthers might have had a puncher's chance if Patrick Baldwin Jr. was available. However, he's out with Covid. Browning and Kane are also out for the Panthers, which hurts their depth. The Panthers gave up 80 points last time out. That's b2b games, against Div 1 opponents, that they've allowed 80 or more. Note that they're 4-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 80 or more in their previous game. I say the Norse ring in the new year with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on OKC. Off b2b road losses, the Thunder will be happy to return home. They've played three games here since 12/18 and they won all three of them. Wins came against the Pelicans, Nuggets and Clippers. Catching a NY team without Randle and others provides an excellent shot at another win. I've mentioned recently that the second unit of the Thunder has been playing very well lately. The Thunder are 11-5 ATS against losing team and 20-12 ATS when listed as underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win.