#281 - Cincy +1.5  *8 EST

Two things here- short and sweet.  Jax hasn't won a game to date and their OL is a mess as they are trying out numerous combinations with tackle and guards.  Also past Bortels I am not sold on a productive QB scenario for them in the second half.  I really like the depth at QB and at RB for Cincy who destroyed the Lions last week and I expect Dalton and his cast of stars to rack up some first half points and retain a lead.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

I have 1 Premium Side Play Saturday in NFLX Week 3 action with the Giants / Jets Game and a late steam Bonus Play in the Bronco's / Rams Game.  Only 2 losses in the 2016 NFLX Season and I fully expect a 2-0 Sweep on Saturday as I continue to pummel the books in the Preseason off a rare loss on Friday.  HAMMER IT!

# 272 - Jets +2.5  **7:30 EST

Look the Giants have averaged 16 yards of offense so far in the Preseason, the jets over 300. The Giants have scored 10 points total in 2 games and one of the games they didn't score at all.  I like the Jets defense here to give Manning and company very little in terms of open looks down the field and the Jets have the better chance here as these 2 meet up on their home field.

Play 1 Unit on the NY JETS

BONUS PLAY - Play a Half Unit on the LA Rams +5.5 to 6

Over 45 to 45.5 San Fran / Green Bay

Kappernick makes his debit tonight for the Niners, and I expect production from all the Niner QB's. San Fran had 31 first downs last week!  Also look for green Bay to open it up tonight as well on offense, they have been very vanilla in the NFLX to date on offense and they can expose a weak San Fran defense here.  I expect at least 30 in the first half, I like this game with both teams in the high 20's, perhaps more.  Chip Kelly will try to score every series, even late.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

#253 /254 - UNDER 44.5 Dallas / Seattle  *10 EST Thursday 

Seattle has played so /so in the Preseason and Dallas quite frankly has lit up the scoreboard like a Christmas Tree scoring 41 last week in a blowout of Miami, and they scored 24 in a losing effort at the Rams where they had a 24-7 lead at one point before emptying out the bench.  Do not think Seattle who has not allowed more than 18 in the NFLX to allow Dallas to run ram shod in their house with a dress rehearsal for their defense in Week 3.  Seattle offense has been iffy at best and Boykin out of TCU has been getting a lot of time under center and does make mistakes and will continue to do so.  Dallas’s defense depth-wise is not all that good but against a non-explosive team I think the score in this one will be lower than this big number.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER. 

Note from Tony 

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#428 - Texans -2.5  *8 EST 

I waited for this line to drop under 3, which it is in most places.  These two have been practicing together since Thursday and word is out of camp the Saints looked below average, especially on offense. The Saints also has some injury and heat issues during practices, Brese threw 2 picks in a scrimmage. I like O'Brien in the preseason, he goes for wins and is aggressive on defense,  and the Texans won last week as a dog on the road and I had them as well.  Another factor has been the heat and humidity, which New Orleans had big issues with coming from West Virginia where it was cool and fatigue will be an ordeal for them today and I expect a fresh rotation of roster players lower on the chart for New Orleans versus Houston.  Savage for Houston at backup QB has looked good and word is he is going to get some work and has moved up to the #2 spot.  A reliable QB who does not take chances.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#415 Miami +2  *8 EST

Not sold on Dallas here and Adam Gase wants a win again after Miami waxed the Giants, last week, he was still calling plays to score in the 4th.  Dallas had a huge lead against LA last week but their defensive depth, or lack there of took over and LA scored at will late,  which is the case again tonight as Miami has some experience and depth at QB, and they also have stated their defense will be in attack mode and be more aggressive Game 2 of the NFLX.  Enough for me, and bear in mind Jason Garrett hates the preseason, and is 6-15 ATS as a head coach for Dallas in the preseason, that is 29% ATS!  Yeah Romo is playing, about 2 series! 

Play 1 Unit on Miami.  

#411 - Minny +3.5 to 3  *10 EST 

Lets make this real simple, Mike Zimmer likes to win, preseason or not, and he likes his team dialed in and playing hard every single play and series in the preseason.  The fact Seattle beat them last year by a single point in mid-January still stings in Zimmer’s mind.  I also watched Seattle play last week in person in Kansas City and frankly it was a miracle cover later in the game.   Both won and covered last week, and while Pete Carroll also likes to win anytime, I think the Vikes have enough motivation here to put this game in the win column. Although the Vikes beat Cincy last week, they got their ass out stated and did not run the ball well, and I expect them to work on the offensive consistency tonight and Bridgewater will get some work at QB.

Play 1 Unit on Minny

Houston +3.5

Off the fall number of 3 here I will grab the extra half point although I think Houston wins outright.  Word is the Niners defense, especially the secondary has been horrible all camp, and have been burnt repeatedly in scrimmages as well.  I like the depth of Houston better than San Fran who is just now getting used to Kellys system and on offense it is going to be trial and error for awhile which benefits Houston.  O'Brien likes to win any game he is in and I see Houston with the better team and coaching staff in this one with more continuity on both sides of the ball.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#273 - Seattle +3   *4:30 EST

Have no doubts, although KC was stellar in Preseason last year, Andy Reid could care less about a win or loss here.  He has backup QB issues, and the health of a thing RB unit and even thinner WR unit in depth will keep the stars for KC out of this one.  Reid has stated publically he just wants out of this alive and well with no injuries to any key players.  Pete Carrol loves to win any game, anywhere, anytime.  I expect a lot of Aaron Murray, Nick Foles who does not know the offense yet, and Tyler Bray and Stanford rookie Kevin Hogan.  I do not expect KC to convert this tryout session for these QBs into points in bunches.  I also expect a Seattle defense, whose scheme even without all their studs, in attack mode as always. I will be at this game in person and fully expect a Seattle SU win. 

Play 1 Unit on Seattle  

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#257 - Carolina +1  *7:30 EST 

Reading the papers and websites about tonight’s contest in Baltimore, Harbaugh is sitting anyone of consequence and could care less.  Almost the entire defense is out, Flacco will not play, and the stadium has promised to show Michael Phelps Swimming performance on the big screens for the Olympics’ during the game.  Baltimore could care less and I like the Panthers chances here and depth much better plus more star power even for the first half is enough. 

Play 1 Unit on Carolina   

OVER 43.5 Saints / Texans

Both teams deep at QB and performance should not be lost.  The Saints defense giving up almost 370 yards per game in the preseason and Houston’s 3 deep QB rotation with Mallet – Savage and starter Hoyer who should be plenty of action today should produce some points as the emphasis is on offense for Houston  Both Saints games have went OVER in the preseason and with a defense struggling against a point hungry offense and the Saints ability to score, I like a high scoring game.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Philly (PK to -1)

The Eagles invade Green Bay with a full head of steam on offense and Chip Kelly NEVER Lets up.  The Eagles have plenty of firepower and are 3 deep at QB, and I expect Bradford to see 2 quarters here and he can execute this offense.   The Eagles have scored 76 points and allowed 27, and bear in mind they allowed 27 points total to Baltimore and Indy and have put up 141 more offense yards than Green Bay has in the preseason.  Green Bay with the loss of Nelson and another key player should play it close to the vest in this one and I doubt we see any trading punches on the scoreboard past the first team and the Green Bay coaching staff knows if they lose another skill position player on offense, their chances of a Super Bowl run will be limited.  Philly drops the hammer with play calling all the way through the game, and at a pick em here I like their chances big time for a 7-10 point win, even on the road.  The Packers 19 point output last week against Pitt and 22 point game against the Pats is not going to match the points put up by Philly.

Play 2 Units on THE EAGLES on SATURDAY 

Tampa Bay / Cincy OVER 40

Expect TB to work on the offense tonight and for Winston to get a good look.  Cincy is loaded on offense and weapons 2 deep on offense and Josh Johnson is productive on offense at QB as well.  Tampa’s defense no good on the first team let alone the second team and Cincy should have 21-26 points here and I expect Tampa to put out more than 16 points this week, especially with Glennon getting a good hard look here tonight with an expected 2 quarters, and he didn’t look all that good last week and I expect him to make a big push tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

Over 40.5 to 41

Both teams in the 20's last week but more importantly both teams have productivity more than 1 player deep on offense.  The Steelers offense was sluggish in week 1 and I also expect more production from Pitt early on.  Both teams strength is offense and play calling on both sides of the line here.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Over 41 Chicago / Indy

Like some scoring here.  Indy’s offense is solid and the rookie RB last week looked awesome and I expect from I read the starters to get an entire quarter here.  Neither defense is all that good, and going deep into the roster does nothing but open it opportunities for the opposing offenses to wreak some havoc.  Like a high scoring one here right out of the gate.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS PLAY – Half Unit  Play a half unit on the EAGLES -4.   

BONUS PLAY HALF UNIT 

Kansas City -3

Too much depth on KC, and Chase Daniel is one of the better backup QB’s in the NFL and Kansas City’s emphasis is on offense and stretching the field vertically and their depth at all skill positions including RB and QB as mentioned is a huge plus.  Local crowd will be riled up as well.  KC had 25 first downs last week against Bruce Arians coached defense.  KC capable of scoring more.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

Detroit +2.5 to 3 

Washington beat Cleveland in Week 1, who has no offense.  Detroit POUNDED the Jets and dominated the game with over 400 yards of offense.  Detroit has the better roster, but the KEY in this game is the injury list for Washington which has grown in training camp at an alarming rate and anyone who is good is not going to see much action.  RB Abdullah for Detroit is going to be a bonafide star at RB for them and they have the healthier team seeing more action with starters than the Skins.  The Skins as of noon today are also sitting 5 starters tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Minnesota -3.5

Vikings with game under their belt and they looked solid against the Steelers and put up some offense and played great defense.  Zimmer now 5-0 SU as a coach in the NFL in preseason.  Tampa will be looking at various scenario’s on offense in this game and add in the travel, a rookie QB and a defense that is solid but not deep and Minny at home and you have the makings of a wide margin win by the Vikes here.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota 

UNDER 37 Cleveland and Washington

I do not expect much from either offense, and really you did not see much from either of them last season.  The defense is the strength of both teams and while starters see very action here, I doubt you see RG III or Kirk Cousins for any length of time and Cleveland at QB is slightly a mess and the staff will try various combinations at QB including Johnny football which won’t produce a ton of points, more likely turnovers.  Conner Shaw and Thaddeus Lewis to get all the second half snaps.  The WR units past the starters on both teams are not good.  Lots of running backs to step in for the Browns too, as they are trying to narrow them down.  Washington, quite frankly who knows on offense.  Not sold on them at all offensively.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY – Chargers -3  (Garrett for Dallas as a head coach went 0-4 last year – does not stress wins in preseason nor play starters hardly at all till week 3) 

Minnesota +3.5

Unreal, Kansas City’s starting offense has had a total of 8 series to date and not one point scored and Jamal Charles their main weapon is OUT for this game with a nagging foot injury.  The Kansas City defense has not looked good or in sync all season and with the Viking offense putting up 17 to 20 here at least, I see possibly and outright win against KC at Arrowhead, as I am not stepping on Kansas City solely based on last season’s success, they have looked below average at best and I like the HOOK on the line here. 

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

UNDER 44- Tennessee / Atlanta

The Falcons will stress defense and their offense in the preseason has been paltry.  The strength of both teams according to stats has been defense and Atlanta really wants a win here and they have had numerous clock eating drives with the first team in this preseason and I expect more of the same today along with the fact they will stress defense in camp all week as Houston racked them last week. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under

2 Team 6 Point Teaser for 1 Unit – Tease St Louis to +9 and Tease the Buffalo  / Tampa Bay total to 48 and TAKE THE UNDER!

NY Giants (Pickem)

If you saw Tom Coughlin’s reaction to the first teams offense performance last week and basically all preseason, the added motivation to score and get the ball rolling is all Giants.  Not sure of QB Smiths prowess against this Giant defense in this spot either, and while he and Mike Vick provide a good 1-2 punch at QB for the flyboys, I like the Giants in this one with the vastly better coach as this dress rehearsal for the regular season will focus for a large part on the Giants offense and the new west coast style they look to deploy this season, Giants get more points and Nassib at QB (3rd stringer out of Syracuse) did a hell of a job last week…Giants ripped off 27 fourth quarter points in a win against Indy.   

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants

BONUS PLAY – Play a Half unit on the UNDER 43.5 Oakland and Green Bay Game.

Philly -3

The Pittsburgh offense other than a few big plays to some speedy wide outs, has been average at best.  The QB depth is also an issue and Big Ben who is aging will be lucky to see past mid-2nd quarter, and they have no running game.  Philly on the other hand is deep at QB, and are an offensive juggernaut and against an aging Dick LaBeau defense, should rack up plenty of points at home to cover this number.  The Steelers are everyone’s dark horse this year, I do not see it happening and teams they have to trade punches with on the scoreboard is not their type of opponent they can win against.   Philly has lost 2 in a row and this is their first home game of the preseason which is HUGE and they want to win in front of the hometown fans.  They scored 35 the last game and lost. 

Play 1 Unit on Philly

Over 41.5 Browns / Skins
Simple Math here.  You saw more scoring this weekend as the playbooks opened up more in Week 2, and with Cleveland and their QB situation, you can rest assured they will be emphasizing offense tonight as Johnny Football and Hoyer battle it out.  The Skins looked good on offense in their week 1 game and they are 2 deep with talent at QB as well.  I see lots of fireworks in this one as both teams will want to shine for 2 quarters on National TV.
Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Texans -3

Like them at home, like their backup QBs a great deal here with Keenum and Savage who is impressing in camp.  Atlanta notorious for bad preseasons and this game it has been stated coach Mike Smith is exploring the depth chart.   Houston is coming off the worst performance of Week 1 in the preseason in a 32-0 beat down at the hands of the Cards.  Zig Zag theory here as Atlanta won and Houston dumped a turd in the desert last week, I like Houston to rebound at home here. Whole world loves to fade them here and oddsmakers making this attractive to take Atlanta who looked far better in week one catching points in this spot, I am not fooled by it.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Play a Half Unit on the OVER 40 in the Steelers / Bills Game.  2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease the NY Giants to +8 and Tease Arizona to +9 for a half unit play.

Philly +3

Look at the depth chart.  Enough said.  Philly QB’s can produce points 3 deep, better RB’s and better secondary and put up 28 in a loss last week.  Chip Kelly likes to run and gun and win, and with starters seeing extended time, I like their chances here against New England, even though they lost badly and many expect them to bounce back at home, I doubt Brady and their stars see as much action as what Philly will.  That’s word out of my sources.  New England has no running game and could not run it against the weak Redskins defense, Philly looks to shore up their defense after Chicago shredded them last week.

Play 1 Unit on Philly

2 Team 6 point Tease  Tease Detroit to +9 and Tease San Diego to +12 

Chicago -3 to 3.5 max

The line has dropped in this game, up to 4 and back down.  Why I have no idea.  Both teams won last week but with Chicago putting up 491 yards of offense is a clinic against Philly last week, I do not see the Jags, even their starting rotation keeping p[ace as they managed just 16 points last week and have QB’s they are trying to break in including a rookie in Bortels.  Chicago’s top 3 QB’s all produced points last week and Jimmy Clausen has been bumped up to 2nd team for this one and Jordan Palmer did not look all that bad last week either.  At home, look for the Bears who had numerous mistakes and miscues on special teams to be even sharper than last week and get a 7-10 point win here.

Play 1 Unit on the Bears 

NY Giants -2 to 2.5

I like the second game scenario here and quite frankly home teams are killing it right now in NFLX.  Look for Coughlin to keep the starters in here for over a quarter, he left them in during the Hall of Fame game to get things on track, and I like their chances against a Steeler defense looking to start 2 and possibly 3 rookies at the seasons start and an offense that sputtered all last year and I doubt we see Big Ben and company more than 2 series.  Extra game under the belt, Giants will be sharper.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants 

Tampa / Jacksonville UNDER 36.5 (these lines are old - at 37 in most places - wait for the line to go up)

Points per game between these two was TB ranked 30th and Jax ranked dead last.  2 All new coaching staffs, and the first preseason game for both should be very bland.  Unders at 6-1 ATS for NFLX on the season, and I do not see these 2 teams who are thin at skill positions on offense already having any start power out there past mid to late 1st quarter.  Lovie Smith also stresses defense.  Enough said!

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Under 37.5 Bronco’s and Seahawks

Might get this at 38 if you hold out, already 38 at LVH in Vegas. Think there is some focus for Denver here in this one?  Both camp reports say the defenses are looking solid and we all know about Seattle’s approach, and that is big time defense.  QB Manning and QB Wilson may see 1 series and then you are talking 3rd and 4th string QBs here.  I do not see much scoring here in this one in the Super Bowl re-match.  Denver thin at RB with Ball out, and no doubt neither team will expose their stars to serious injury here.  Denver emphasizing defense this preseason, Seattle always does.  Do not see a ton of fireworks in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the Under