The 49ers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and they also show a 4-1 record ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Failing to cover against Seattle, the Falcons are now just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

Atlanta's defense held their own until late in the 3rd quarter and they eventually surrendered 28 points to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Their problem this week is that the 49ers operate the same style of offense that they struggled against last week, only they're more talented. Colin Kaepernick is a better passer and runner than Wilson and he has been especially deadly of late. With Frank Gore, and LaMarcus James coming on late, San Francisco is a very difficult offense to stop.

San Franciso's defense is every bit as good as Seattle's and quite possibly better. The Niners have a better pass rush than the Seahawks and they will get more pressure on Matt Ryan than he saw last weekend. The Seahawks have a great secondary but Ryan is good enough to eventually beat you if given time. The Niners won't give him that time and he isn't mobile enough to get out of trouble. San Fran gives up no more than 21 points this week as they get the road victory!

The Broncos have won 6 straight at home by an average of 21 ppg. Overall, they have won 11 straight games by an average of 16 ppg. Every one of those 11 wins has been by a TD or more and 7 of the 11 games have been decided by 2 TD's or more, including the last 4 games of the season! The Ravens win over the Colts last Sunday was huge surprise to me as it was just their second win in the last 6 weeks. I think the emotional high of Ray Lewis playing in his last home game was enough to move them to victory last week. With that said, I think they're in for an emotional let down as they won't be able to match that intensity on the road against a Denver team that is far superior.

Notre Dame's defense is the only thing that gives them any hope of staying in this game. They will surely give the Alabama offense a run for their money but eventually the Tide will wear them down and put some points on the board. The Alabama defense is just as solid as Notre Dame's (actually topping the Irish in all categories except giving up half a point more per game on the year) while the Irish offense is below average at best. The Irish rank in the bottom third of NCAA ranks scoring just 27 ppg. Alabama has had just 3 teams score on them more than twice this year.

The Stanford Cardinal are on an incredible run going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and showing a 38-17-1 record ATS in their last 56 games overall! Also, the Cardinal are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games while the Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Stanford gave up less than 90 ypg on the ground this season, 3rd best in the NCAA ranks! Their ability to put the Badgers in passing situations will haunt Wisconsin and by taking the ball out of the hands of Montee Ball and the Badger RB's, the Cardinal will effectively win the game.

The Badgers struggled all year with coaching staff turnover and that became even more magnified when HC Bielema left for Arkansas after the Big Ten Championship game. I think that confusion alone is the biggest factor that will be their undoing against such a well-coached and experienced Stanford team.

The Wildcats have won 4 straight games ATS vs. a team with a winning record and they're 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall! The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Mississippi State didn't beat a single team playing in a bowl game this season. Their best win on the year was over an 8-4 Middle Tennessee State team. That was their only win against a team that finished with a winning record! Compare that to a Northwestern team that beat 4 bowl teams this year, 3 of them already winning their bowl games (Syracuse, Michigan State and Vanderbilt). The Wildcats have a very potent offense and are better on defense than most think, giving up under 23 ppg.

Michigan State has 6 losses on the year, but their average margin of loss is just 5 ppg. Take away a 17 point September loss to undefeated Notre Dame and that number drops to an average of just 2 ppg! This 6-6 record is obviously a bit deceiving. The Spartans have one of the best defenses in the nation and they will have no problem shutting down a below average TCU offensive attack. The Horned Frogs will also throw out a stingy defense of their own but they haven't seen the type of rushing attack that the Spartans feature with Le'veon Bell. I think Michigan State gets the win SU here, but at date of this publish, there isn't enough value in the ML to justify giving up the 3 points were being offered.

The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Philadelphia and, in the series, the road team is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Washington currently holds a 4-1 record ATS in their last 5 road games and have covered the spread in their last 5 games overall!

The Eagles are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games and only 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. Also, the Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss ATS.

The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record and they're 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Green Bay has covered the number in 4 straight games agianst the Bears, all as a favorite. The Packers have actually won 5 straight against the Bears, by an average of 10 ppg, and the Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Chicago. Too many injuries for the Bears to keep up with a Green Bay team that will be getting a couple key players back this week.

The Packers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing road record and they're 15-6 ATS in their last 21 overall home games! Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against the Lions and they are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Green Bay.

I don't expect the Lions and their SU road record of 2-4 and a 3-7-1 road record ATS to contend with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Lions defense, especially their secondary, has been torn apart all year long giving up over 26 ppg. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. NFC North rivals and they go down again in primetime Sunday night.

The Bears have won 6 straight against the Vikings, both SU and ATS. The average margin of victory over that span is just under 17 ppg and only 2 games were decided by less than double digits!

The Vikings have won just once in their last 5 games and they're 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Vikings are also just 4-13-3 ATS in their last 20 games against a team with a winning record. The Bears defense is the best in the league and the Vikings are far too one-dimensional to consistently move the ball. Lay the points on the the Bears on the road!

Pitt needs this win to become bowl eligible while South Florida isn't playing for much at this point. Pitt has won and covered the spread in 4 straight meetings with the Bulls (avg margin of victory 16.5 ppg).

After a slow start, Pitt has come around having now won 3 of their last 5 games, including a close OT loss at #1 Notre Dame. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 conference games. The Bulls are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and only 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Bulls are also just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. Losing 9 of their last 10 games this year, by an average of 9 ppg, doesn't give me much reason to believe this is the spot South Florida turns it all around.

Ohio State has covered in 5 straight series meetings and the Wolverines are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at Ohio State. The Wolverines are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games and only 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are 40-18-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, a 68% winning percentage! The Buckeyes are also 47-20-1 ATS in their last 68 Big Ten games while Michigan is only 11-27 ATS in their last 38 in conference play. Denard Robinson is still banged up and I'm not sure Michigan could even win this game with him in the lineup at full strength.

A division with the fierciest rivalries in the game and the Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. the NFC East while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 within the division. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Cowboys and they've covered the last 5 games played in Dallas. Also, in the series, the road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the underdog posting a 22-6 record ATS over the last 28 meetings! It's not just long time rivals that the 'Boys struggle against at home as they are riding a 7 game losing streak ATS in the hosue that Jerry built.

Houston has already won in Jacksonville by 20 this year and they've won the last 4 games against the Jags by an average of nearly 14 ppg. Five of Jacksonville's 7 losses this year have been by 17 points or more and half of Houston's wins have been by 2 TD's or more.

The Texans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are just 7-19-1 ATS against a team with a winning record and winless with an 0-3-1 record ATS in their last 4 games against Houston.

The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against La Tech and the Bulldogs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 19-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. If it weren't for a bunch of 30+ point spreads that finally caught up with the Bulldogs, we're talking about one of the elite cash cows in the NCAA ranks. With Tech back at home, and getting points, this is as close to a lock as there is.

The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and the Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. After nearly knocking off Michigan last week, Northwestern has now covered in 4 straight games while the Spartans are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.

In the series, Northwestern currently owns a 5 game win streak ATS vs. Michigan State. Also, the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Northwestern has had trouble closing games out otherwise I'd be jumping on the moneyline in this one.

Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Also, the Wildcats are 10-3 ATS over the last 4 years when playing as a road underdog. The Wolverines are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record and only 10-26 ATS in their last 36 Big Ten games.

The Bills have a terrible defense, giving up over 32 ppg, which obviously won't match up well against the dangerous Texans offense that is scoring over 30 ppg. All six of Houston's wins are by at least a TD and four of the six wins have been by 20 points or more putting their average margin of victory at 17 ppg! The Bills four losses have been by an average of 22 ppg.

The Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games while the Bills are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Bills are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games while the Texans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games against the AFC. Houston wins going away!

Kansas State is averaging 50 ppg at home this year and have huge wins over Miami and Texas Tech. That doesn't even include the great road victories they've picked up at Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Wildcats are one of the most explosive offenses in the country and Oklahoma State has struggled defending against a fast paced, mulit-dimensional offense like K-State possesses. Oklahoma State has a good offense as well, but nothing special to those that the Wildcats have already shut down. The 'Cats have held Miami, OU, West Virginia and Texas Tech to an average of 17.5 ppg. Kansas State by 3 TDs at home!

The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Boilers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Big Ten games and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games this season. Also, Penn State has dominated the cash in the series going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings, including a 3-1-1 mark ATS in their last 5 games in West Lafayette.

Alabama has covered the spread in 4 straight road games and they're 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite. 'Bama's average margin of victory this season sits at 33 ppg and they've won every game by 19 or more points. The Volunteers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and Tennessee is only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Also, the Vols are only 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record.

In series history, the road team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings, including Alabama's current 5 game win streak at Neyland Stadium! Overall, the Crimson Tide are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Tennessee.

The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Ball State is also an impressive 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games while Central Michigan is in the midst of a 6 game losing streak ATS at home. Also, the Chippewas are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record, 2-14 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games overall! Some mighty big trends to buck if they want to pull off an upset of a quality Ball State squad Saturday afternoon.

Northern Illinois has 7 straight wins over Buffalo and they're averging margin of victory over the last 4 home wins is 32 ppg! The Huskies are currently riding records of 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games and they're 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 conference games. Buffalo is just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games and only 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games against a team with a winning record. Look for Northern Illinois to continue their dominance and continue forward with a so far stellar 2012 campaign.

The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record while the Rebels are a staggering 4-23-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. UNLV is also just 11-39-3 ATS in their last 53 road games! Louisiana Tech is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

New England almost gained a huge SU win last week on the road but they did still cover, pushing them to 51-24-3 ATS in their last 78 road games, nearly a 70% clip over 10 years! Against the Bills, the Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Buffalo and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall. Also, the road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games and the favorite is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings between these two franchises. All signs point towards the Pats getting back in the win column in a big way.

Florida has won 7 straight against Tennessee (5 straight by double digits) and the Gators are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against UT and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Tennessee. Tennessee is 0-5-1 ATS over their last 6 contests against a team with a winning record and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Florida was very unimpressive in their home opener against Bowling Green but they had a very solid win at Texas A&M in week 2. This line is 7-10 points off from what I believe it should be.