7* Nets/Hawks Game 5 "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 200.5

The Key: Prior to the Nets' 120-115 (OT) win over the Hawks in Game 4, this was a very low scoring series.  They had combined for 191 points in Game 1, 187 in Game 2 and 174 in Game 3.  I look for Game 5 to be played more like the first three games rather than Game 4 with what's at stake with this series tied 2-2.  There's no doubt both teams will be laying it on the line defensively to get a win.  Brooklyn is 12-2 UNDER in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-5 in Nets last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 conference quarterfinal games.  Take the UNDER.

7* Rockets/Mavericks Sunday Night "Bailout" on UNDER 220.5

The Key: This number has been inflated due to one of the highest-scoring games in postseason history in Game 3 between the Mavs and Rockets.  They combined for 258 points in regulation in Game 3, which was a complete aberration based on what these teams have done lately when up against each other.  The UNDER is actually 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have combined for 211 or fewer points in five of those seven contests.  The total for Game 1 was 212.5, so the fact that this total in Game 4 is 220.5 shows you that there's value with the under.  Take the UNDER.

7* Thursday NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER 187

The Key: Games in the NBA playoffs tend to get more lower scoring as they go on.  That has been the case in this series as these teams scored 194 combined points in Game 1, but just 173 in Game 2.  Given the recent history of this series, I like for this game to stay well UNDER the 187-point total in Game 3.  The Bulls and Bucks have combined for 173, 194, 186, 158, 182 and 181 points in their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1.  That's an average of 179.0 combined points.  That means we're getting roughly 8 points of value on this UNDER based on recent history, which is a lot.  Chicago is 14-3 UNDER following two consecutive home wins.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 192.5

The Key: The books have once again set the number too high in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the four meetings between these teams despite two of those games going to overtime.  They have combined for 187, 188 and 179 (Game 1) points in the three unders.  They were only at 164 combined points before overtime in Game 1.  While I expect this game to be a little higher scoring in regulation, I still believe there's a ton of value with the UNDER 192.5.  Washington is 8-1 UNDER in road games after playing two more more consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days' rest.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER.

7* Spurs/Rockets Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 206

The Key: The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs will meet up for the second time in three days.  They combined for 208 points on Wednesday, and I believe their familiarity with one another will lead to a much lower-scoring affair Friday.  After all, these teams haven't scored very many points in recent meetings in Houston.  They have combined for 179, 187, 191 and 202 points their last four meetings in Houston with all four games going UNDER the total.  They have averaged roughly 190 combined points per game in those four contests.  When you compare that to tonight's total set of 206, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 191.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, while the Miami Heat are fighting just to stay alive for a playoff spot.  The No. 4 seed Bulls are one game ahead of No. 5 Washington, while the No. 9 Heat are one game behind both No. 7 Boston and No. 8 Brooklyn.  Both teams will be motivated, which will lead to max effort on defense.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series as the Heat and Bulls have not topped 183 combined points in any of the four games, and that 183-point performance came in overtime.  Not counting overtime, the Bulls & Heat have averaged 173.0 points in those four meetings.  That gives us 18.5 points of value here on the UNDER.  Chicago is 9-1 UNDER as a road dog of 6 points or fewer this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Jazz/Kings UNDER 190.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been the best defensive team in the second half of the season, period.  The Jazz are 15-8 since center Rudy Gobert became the starter.  They have done it with defense, limiting 17 of their last 20 opponents to 92 or fewer points.  They have held their last four foes to 87, 84, 84, and 89 points.  That's no small feat considering they have played Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City during this stretch.  Utah is 23-3 UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Jazz last 24 games overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Kings last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pistons/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: The oddsmakers have really set this total too high tonight between the Pistons and Bulls.  These are two teams that are in no hurry offensively, which is indicated by the fact that Chicago ranks 23rd in pace and Detroit ranks 22nd.  It's also a big reason why these teams typically play in lower-scoring games when they meet, especially in comparison to tonight's 197.5-point total.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have averaged 187.0 combined points in their last 10 meetings.  That stat alone shows how there is plenty of value with this UNDER.  The Bulls are 11-2 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics UNDER 203

The Key: Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are fighting to make the playoffs right now.  Boston is currently the No. 8 team in the East, just one-half game ahead of Charlotte.  It has three teams within 1.5 games of it for the 8th spot.  Miami is currently the 7th team in the East, just one game ahead of Boston.  It's safe to say that both teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  Miami and Boston have combined for 197 or fewer points in five straight meetings, averaging 181.6 combined points per game in those five contest.  The total has been set at 203 tonight, meaning that we're receiving roughly 21 points of value on the UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Nets/Hornets UNDER 197.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are both barely on the outside looking in when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Hornets trail the Celtics by a half-game for the No. 8 seed, while the Nets are 1.5 games back.  It's safe to say that both of these teams will be laying it all on the line to get a win tonight, and that will be reflected more in their effort on the defensive end than anything.  That's why I like the UNDER in this game tonight.  I believe there is value here because the last four meetings have all seen 201 or more combined points.  Charlotte is shooting just 39.2 percent while averaging 88.8 points in its last five games overall.  Brooklyn is 20-9 UNDER in its last 29 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-1 UNDER in its last five games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Jazz/Warriors Western Conference *BAILOUT* on UNDER 194.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz have been UNDER machines ever since trading Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City and inserting the best defender in the NBA in Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  They are 14-2 UNDER in their last 16 games overall despite having each of their last 15 totals set at 192.5 points or lower.  So, this 194.5-point total tonight between the Jazz and the Warriors is the highest a total has been set in a Utah game since February 11th.  There is clearly some value here with this UNDER today folks, especially with the Warriors missing one of their best players in Klay Thompson.  The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 189

The Key: When you look at the head-to-head history of this series between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, it's easy to see that the oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls and Pacers have combined for 182, 182, 189, 166, 170, 204, 187, 171 and 189 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  As you can see, eight of those nine meetings saw 189 or fewer combined points.  I'll take this 8-1 (89%) trend backing the UNDER straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER 203

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight in a matchup between Orlando and Houston.  These teams played in an absolute shootout in their first meeting of the year, a 120-113 home victory for the Magic on January 14th.  I look for this game to play out similarly.  Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 99.2 possessions per game as it prefers to run teams to death.  Orlando has given up 100-plus points in 13 of its last 17 games overall.  The Magic are 15-3 OVER off a combined score of 225 or more points over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 179.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now.  They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall.  The reason for their success is defense.  They have allowed 91 or less points in eight straight coming in.  They have also given up 91 or fewer in 11 of their last 12.  Charlotte is not a very good offensive team, but it does get after it defensively.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in 7 of its last 11 games.  The Hornets are 7-0 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 UNDER in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take this 23-0 angle backing the under straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Mavericks OVER 200

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have gone 11-0 to the UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Obviously, the books are now forced to set this total lower than it should be, and therefore there's some value in backing the OVER tonight.  The Cavaliers are also coming off a low-scoring affair against the Suns last time out, which only adds to the value.  Dallas and Cleveland are tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100  possessions.  Dallas has averaged 104.4 points on the season, while Cleveland has averaged 102.5, which would be higher if not for all the injuries earlier in the season.  Dallas is 10-1 OVER as a home underdog over the last two years.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nets UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have given up 87 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are allowing 81.4 points in their last five contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last eight games overall.  As good as they are defensively, they are equally terrible on offense.  Utah has scored 97 or fewer points in eight of its last nine contests.  Take the UNDER.

6* Thunder/Bulls TNT "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: The Bulls and Thunder are both battling huge injuries right now.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and playing with a banged up Russell Westbrook.  The Bulls are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  This has been a low-scoring series in the past, and it will continue in 2014-15 due to these injuries.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 189 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  They have averaged 184.2 combined points per game in these six contests.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Thunder's last 10 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers UNDER 190

The Key: The New York Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  They also rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  That's not a great combo for scoring points, but it's an excellent one for backing UNDERS.  The Pacers do not look to push the tempo, either, ranking 20th in pace at 95.6 possessions per game.  The Pacers also rank just 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The last two meetings between these teams have been low scoring with 185 and 178 combined points.  I look for this one to be played at a snail's pace and to easily stay under the 190-point total.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in home games after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks rank 7th.  That's the reason both teams have improved so dramatically over last year.  The Bucks are missing a point guard after trading Brandon Knight to Phoenix, and having his replacement, Michael Carter-Williams, currently injured.  These teams have squared off twice this season, and both times it resulted in defensive battles.  They combined for 184 points in their first meeting and 175 in their second.  I look for this game to finish in a similar range.  Betting the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 points who are playing their 2nd game in 5 days on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Key: These teams have met up once already this season in a game that saw 193 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or less in six of their last eight meetings.  I expect that this contest will fit that criteria considering the Pistons are without a point guard right now.  They traded D.J. Augustin to Oklahoma City, and while they did get Reggie Jackson back in return, he's not expected to play tonight.  The Bulls have allowed 88.3 points per game in their last four games, and they are 5-1 UNDER in their last six.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 198

The Key: Four of the last eight meetings between Memphis and Oklahoma City have gone to overtime.  I believe that has helped provide us with excellent line value here to back the UNDER in this battle between two of the best teams in the West tonight.  If you don't count overtime, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated when looking at recent meetings.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for 186, 198, 170, 160, 180, 188, 229, 180 and 159 points in their last nine meetings.  As you can see, only once in those nine meetings have they surpassed 198 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 183.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  I believe we are getting 15 points of value here with this 198-point total as a result.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: There is some serious value with this UNDER 197.5-point total in this game between Chicago and Sacramento.  The Kings are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  They have scored just 89.7 points in their last six contests.  The Bulls are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games overall.  They have allowed 92.3 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  They have averaged a combined 180.3 points per game in those three meetings.  Add these three trends up and that's a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game tonight.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 195.5

The Key: The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this year at 27-23 is the way they play at the defensive end.  In fact, they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Bucks' last 21 games overall, including 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  They are coming off a high-scoring loss to the Houston Rockets last night, which is the reason I believe the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Boston Celtics' last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams in Milwaukee dating back to 2011.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Spurs OVER 203

The Key: The Orlando Magic have become a more up-tempo team in recent weeks.  It hasn't worked out very well for them at all, but it has been very good for "over" bettors.  The Magic are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall.  Their defense has been absolutely atrocious as they have allowed 101 or more points in 13 straight games.  Off a poor offensive performance last time out against the Clippers, look for the Spurs to get back on track offensively in this one.  The last time these teams met in San Antonio, the Spurs won 121-112 for 233 combined points.  The OVER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The OVER is 15-5 in Spurs last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Wizards UNDER 188.5

The Key: The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined to average 182.8 points per game in those four meetings at the end of regulation.  The Hornets have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games overall.  They have combined to average 176.7 points per game with their last seven opponents as well.  The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.  The under is also 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics Over 187

The Key: Boston is off a six-point loss to Houston, and that is very significant because it is 7-0 "over" this season in home games following a loss of six points or less. We have seen an average of 212.1 total points scored in this spot. In addition, when the line is 180.0 to 189.5, playing the "over" on Sunday road teams that average 6.0 made three-point shots per game or more has produced a 46-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams have combined with their opponent for an average of 192.0 total points in this situation. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Over 186

The Key: The Heat have finished under the total in 10 straight games, and we are getting a good number here as a result. Miami is 22-11 "over" the last two seasons when the total is 180-189.5. The Bulls are 21-8 "over" in their last 29 home games, including 10-1 this season when they check in with two wins in a three-game span. When the total is 180-189.5 for a Sunday game, playing the "over" on road teams that average six three-point makes per game or more has produced a 46-17 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 15-6 "over" this season in home games versus teams that average six made three-pointers per game or more. We have seen an average of 206.4 total points scored in these 21 contests.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Hornets Under 185.5

The Key: Each of the season's first three meetings between these teams have gone over the number with at least 189 scored in each.  The Knicks combined with Orlando for 219 points last night, and the Hornets combined with the Cavs for 219 as well. And we're getting a line of just 185.5? Clearly, the books want the money on the over, but we won't oblige them. Prior to last night, the Hornets had held 10 straight foes to 45% shooting or worse with 8 of them making just 39.8% of their shots or fewer. Now that's some serious defense, and I expect a strong defensive effort tonight against a New York team that has really struggled offensively this season. The Knicks were kicked at home by the Hornets Jan. 10 so they'll be looking for revenge here. They know the best way to get it is too shore things up defensively, which is what they had done before last night. They got the win, but allowing the Magic to shoot over 50% serves as a reminder of their last game against Charlotte when they allowed the Hornets to shoot 50% and lost by 28. The Hornets aren't a good offensive team and are in poor offensive form, shooting just 37.6% from the field over their last five games. I expect the struggles to continue as the Knicks turn up the heat. Charlotte is 19-8 under in home games the last 3 seasons after playing a game with a combined score of 205 points or more.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Raptors/76ers Over 194

The Key: The Raptors have finished under the total in each of their last five games with just 178 total points scored in their last game at Memphis. The 76ers have come in under the number in nine of their last 10 with just 189 total points scored in their last game against the Knicks. Plus, we saw only 184 total points scored when these two teams met in Toronto last week. Given these recent outcomes, odds makers are clearly begging for action on the under. We won't give in. The last meeting between these teams was an aberration. Prior to it, these two had combined for at least 199 points in six straight meetings. When the total is 190.0-199.5, you want to play the over on teams like Toronto that have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last five games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 39-17 (70%) mark the last five seasons. The average line for these games is 194.0, but we have seen an average of 198.7 total points scored. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Bucks Over 198.5

The Key: The over is showing value in tonight's Raptors/Bucks battle. The Bucks have finished under the total in 11 straight games, and odds makers have been forced to over adjust the line as a result of all the action coming in on the under for Milwaukee games. Toronto is off a bad upset loss at home to New Orleans, but that is to our benefit. The Raptors are 8-0 "over" the last two seasons in road games following an upset loss at home, and we've seen an average of 218.2 total points scored in these games. The "over" is 5-0 in Toronto's last five versus Central division foes and 4-0 in its last four versus Milwaukee. We have seen 210, 200, 210 and 207 total points scored in those four. Take the over.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Thunder Under 211.0

The Key: The under is showing some nice value in Sunday's Thunder vs. Magic matchup. You want to play the "under" on January road teams that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game if the posted total is 210.0 or greater. Doing so has produced an impressive 31-9 (78%) mark since 1996. The Thunder combined with Golden State for 242 points last game, but they won't get the same kind of help from an Orlando team that averages only 94.9 ppg. Oklahoma City's over/under results have directly correlated with its level of competition. It is 13-3 "under" when playing against teams with a losing record this season, and we have seen just 190.1 total points scored on average in these games. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bucks/76ers Over 194.5

The Key: Milwaukee has been an unders machine, finishing under the number in each of its last seven, and we are getting a favorable number as a result. It is also to our benefit that Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and an eighth game in 13 days as defense is the first thing to suffer for fatigued teams. The Bucks are 21-9 "over" the last two seasons when playing at least eight games in a 14-day span, and we have seen an average of 204.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are on a 36-17 run the last three seasons in home games following an under, and we have seen an average of 202.3 total points scored in this situation. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 209

The Key: We saw 208 total points scored when these teams played the day after Christmas, and we saw this amount despite very poor shooting from both teams. In fact, they combined to shoot barely 40% overall and just 17.6% from 3-point range. The pace of the game was very fast, which has been the norm when these teams get together. That's why we've seen an average of 226.4 total points scored in the last five meetings. The "over" is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota. With a fast pace and both teams shooting the ball just a little bit better, this one should find its way over the total.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies Under 194.5

The Key: Odds makers are well off the mark here. The total was set at 191.0 the last time these teams met. They tallied 233 total points in that game but needed triple-OT to do so. They combined for just 184 points at the end of regulation so this number should have went the other way if anything. The Spurs are 8-1 "under" this season in road games after playing a home game, and we have seen just 187.0 total points scored on average in these contests. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Nets Under 204.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" on teams like Brooklyn that are off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against an opponent that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 60-25 mark the last five seasons. The under is 9-1 in the Nets' last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six versus the Western Conference and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss. Take the under.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Bucks/Clippers Under 211.5

The Key: Milwaukee combined with Sacramento for 215 points in its last game. The Clippers combined with Denver for 215 points in their last game. And, the Bucks and Clippers combined for 217 points when they met Dec. 13. With a number set well below these point totals, it appears odds makers are begging for action on the under. We won't bite. The LA's defense wasn't very good last night. It allowed Denver to shoot 47.5% for the game and make 11 three-point attempts. That poor defensive effort will remind the Clippers of an even worse defensive performance they had recently against the Bucks. They lost in Milwaukee while allowing the Bucks to shoot 56.6% from the field and 63.6% from three-point range. I expect a much better defensive effort tonight in a bounce-back, revenge spot. When the total is 200 or higher, you want to play the "under" on teams like Milwaukee that have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and are playing a fourth road game in seven days. Doing so has produced a 55-25 (69%) mark the last five seasons. The Bucks are also on a 28-13 "unders" run in road games when the total is 210 or higher. Take the under.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Suns Over 203

The Key: When these teams met in Detroit last month, we saw just 174 total points scored, but they combined for only 33 points from beyond the arc and only 23 points from the free throw line. Keep in mind these teams average 54 points combined per game on three-pointers and 33 points on free throws. In other words, they are averaging 31 more points per game in these areas than we saw in the first meeting. Add those 31 points to the total score of the first meeting, and we get 205. So we are getting a good number here. Plus, we can also take into consideration that neither team is defending well. The Pistons have allowed 103.6 points over their last eight games, and the Suns are allowing 106.7 points over their last nine games. Phoenix is 8-1 over this season versus teams that give up 99.0 ppg or more, and we have seen an average of 219.9 total points scored in these contests. The Suns are 9-1 over the last two season when playing against teams with a win percentage of 25% or worse, and we have seen 213.2 total points scored in these games. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Rockets/Kings Over 196

The Key: We saw just 191 total points scored when these teams met in Houston last month. The Kings went to DeMarcus Cousins in the post a lot in that game, but they'll be looking to run more without him in the lineup. The Rockets just played last night, and the Kings are playing for the third time in four days. Neither team has fresh legs, and defense is the first thing to go when that's the case. Houston is 18-4 over off a road loss over the last two seasons, and we have seen an average of 212.7 total points scored in these contests. Also, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Kings Under 195

The Key: The Grizzlies combined with Portland for 211 points in their last game. The Kings combined with San Antonio for 216. And, these teams combined for 221 points in the season's first meeting. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. Memphis has been at its best defensively on the road where it is giving up only 89.9 ppg. It is also worth noting that the Grizzlies haven't been nearly as good offensively on the road, averaging just 94.5 ppg. The Kings have been a far better defensive team at home where they are holding opponents to 97.2 ppg. Prior to this season's meeting, these teams had combined for 188 points or less in four straight matchups. The under is 6-0 in the Kings' last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. The under is 3-0-1 in the Grizzlies' last four games following a win of more than 10 points and 3-0-1 in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is 18-3 under as a road favorite under coach Joerger, and we have seen just 182.3 total points scored on average in these games.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Kings/Pelicans Under 203.5

The Key: We saw 206 total points scored when these teams faced off in Sacramento last Tuesday. However, we saw just 185 and 199 total points scored in the previous two meetings. Both teams will benefit from two days of rest and game prep and the fact they just faced each other. I just don't see the offenses being as efficient here. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Kings' last 20 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in the Pelicans' last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the total is 200.0 to 209.5 in November games, you want to play the under on all teams (Sacramento in this case) with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Doing so has produced a 64-31 mark the last five seasons. We've seen an average total of 204.5 points in this situation but only 199.1 total points scored on average. Take the Under.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Raptors Under 197

The Key: Hard-fought defensive battles have been the norm in this series recently, and I expect no different tonight. We are getting a great number here because both teams have been overs machines early on, but the reality is these teams haven't combined for more than 186 points in their last five meetings. We have seen just 177.4 total points scored on average during this span. The Bulls jumped out to a big lead in their last game against Detroit with a 60-point first-half performance. That bodes well for us as Chicago is 8-0 under the last three seasons after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of their last game. We have seen only 173.3 total points scored on average in this spot. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Spurs/Rockets Over 199.5

The Key: The Spurs have finished under the number in each of their first three games. The Rockets have come in below the number in each of their first five games. We are getting a very favorable number here as a result. Houston has looked good defensively in the early going, but it has played a very weak schedule to this point. It takes a big step up in competition here. Six of the last eight matchups between these teams have gone over this number with an average of 213.9 total points scored. The over is 14-4 in the Rockets' last 18 home games. The over is also 26-11 in Houston's games against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach McHale.

7* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs Under 199

The Key: Game 1 went over the total by only 5.5 points according to the line (199.5) I had despite the teams combining to shoot 52.7 percent from the field overall and 25 of 54 (46.3%) from three-point territory.  In other words, the pace greatly favored the under.  Miami knows it must play much better defense if it's going to steal away the home court advantage, and I fully expect it to do so.  Plus, the law of averages is heavily stacked against the teams going off from three the way they did in Game 1.  They combined to make eight more threes than they average.  That's 24 extra points.  If they would have made what they average, we would have seen just 181 total points scored.  Factoring in free throw discrepancies (Miami made eight fewer free throws than it averages and San Antonio made one more than in averages), we still would have seen just 188 total points scored if they made their averages from the foul line.  With Miami tightening the screws defensively and the law of averages ready to swing back in our favor, this one should come in under the number easily.

7* NBA Finals Game 1 "Total" Annihilator Heat/Spurs Under 199.5

The Key: Because this is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, I expect the defensive intensity to be high from the jump.  The Spurs feel like they let one slip away last year and will be extremely focused for Game 1 as a result.  Miami found itself in a hole after losing Game 1 of last year's Finals, and it will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again.  At the end of regulation, 7 of the last 10 games these teams have played have finished at 198 total points or less.  We've seen an average of 193.6 total points scored during this 10-game sample so we are getting a really good number.  Both teams looked to set the tone with defense in last year's Finals, and we saw 180 points in Game 1 and 187 points in Game 2 as a result.  The "under" is 5-0 in the Spurs' last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  San Antonio is 24-9 "under" in home games versus slow-tempo teams that average 76 shots per game or less since 1996.  The "under" is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two in San Antonio.  Lastly, plays "under" when the total is between 190.0 and 199.5 points on teams like Miami that led by 15 or more points at the half of their last game are 36-13 since 1996 provided their opponent has scored 105 points or more in its last two games.  Take the under.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Heat/Pacers Under 185

The Key: Indiana picked up its defense in Game 4 after allowing the Heat to shoot above 50% in each of the previous three games.  It held Miami to 46.4% shooting, but we saw yet another "over" in the series because it sent Miami to the foul line 34 times.  The Pacers were the top defensive team in the NBA during the regular-season, and I expect them to put forth their best defensive effort of the series in the face of elimination.  Miami would love to close out this series so it can get some extra rest prior to the Finals so it will be lacking no defensive effort either.  With all that's at stake, we should see a defensive battle that comes in "under" the number.  The "under" is 4-0 in the Pacers' last four after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Indiana is 34-15 "under" when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  The "under" is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Indiana.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Thunder/Spurs Under 211

The Key: The Thunder thought they could go small and outscore the Spurs in Game 1, but that decision left them exposed on the defensive end.  Protecting the paint will be a priority for Oklahoma City tonight, and that means we can expect to see a bigger lineup, likely one that has Steven Adams and Nick Collison playing side by side for extended minutes.  Playing this duo worked against the Clippers, and I expect Scott Brooks to go back to it here.  Collison and Adams are blue collar competitors, who I believe will respond after getting punked in Game 1.  The pace actually favored the under in Game 1, but both teams shot the ball well.  With more effort and a strategy change from the Thunder, the Spurs shouldn't shoot anywhere near the 57.5% they shot in the first game.  Despite the 227 total points we saw in Game 1, these two teams have combined to average just 207.6 total points in this season's five meetings.  The Thunder are 4-1 "under" in their last five games after giving up 100 points or more last game, 4-1 "under" in their last five when playing on one day of rest and 5-2 "under" in their last seven following a defeat of more than 10 points.  The Spurs are 14-6 "under" in their 20 when their opponent scored 100 points or more last game.  Take the Under.

7* Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Pacers Under 185

The Key: Prior to Game 1, six of the previous seven meetings had finished below the posted number for this game.  The Game 1 pace wasn't fast, but both teams shot better than 51% from the field.  I expect that to change tonight.  Miami knows it has to tighten the screws defensively if it is going to even the series.  Indiana was arguably the best defensive team in the NBA this season, and it has held Miami to an average of 43.7% shooting over the last seven matchups.  The Pacers are 33-13 "under" this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points, and we've seen an average of only 180.9 total points scored in these games.  According to simulations based on statistics, there is a probability of both teams scoring 92 points or less in this game.  This is worth noting because the "under" is 59-0 the last three seasons in Indiana games when both teams score 92 points or less.  The "under" is 32-0 in Miami games the last three seasons when both teams score 92 points or less.  Take the under.

7* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat Under 189

The Key: The last two games of this series have finished over the total, largely due to hot shooting by Brooklyn in Game 3 and hot shooting by Miami in Game 4.  I don't expect either team to shoot well tonight.  With the Nets fighting to stay alive and the Heat trying to close them out, defense will take center stage.  The Heat are on a 4-0 "under" run in games following two consecutive overs.  The Nets are also 4-0 "under" in their last four games following two consecutive overs.  Brooklyn is 20-5 "under" as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9.0 points over the last three seasons.  Miami has been taking exceptional care of the basketball in these playoffs and is on a 13-3 "under" run since 1996 in home games after three straight games of committing 11 turnovers or fewer.  The "under" is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams in Miami, including 6-1 in the last seven.  We have seen just 182.0 total points scored on average in these 10 games.  Take the Under.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Pacers Under 181

The Key: The Pacers know they are fortunate to be up 3-1 in the series as they needed to come back from 19 down in the second half Sunday night.  They can't be at all pleased with their performance on the defensive end (especially in the first half) as they gave up 18 fast-break points, 42 points in the paint and allowed the Wizards to shoot 45.6% for the game.  I expect them to tighten the screws defensively from the jump tonight as they look to close out the series.  Washington knows it must do a better job defensive if it's going to live to see another day.  After holding Indiana to 42.3% shooting through the first three games of the series, it allowed the Pacers to shoot 45.2% from the floor in Game 4.  The Pacers are 31-12 "under" this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 17-6 "under" at home in this range.  Indiana is also 9-1 "under" the last two seasons after three straight games where both it and its opponent scored 95 points or fewer.  We have seen just 173.3 total points on average scored in these 10 instances.  You also want to play the "under" on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 in a matchup of teams with winning records if they are off two or more consecutive upset defeats.  Doing so has produced a 40-16 mark since 1996.  Take the Under.

7* 2nd Round Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Trail Blazers Under 211

The Key: You want to play the "Under" when the total is 210.0 or higher on all teams like Portland that have allowed 110 points or more in three straight games when they are matched up against a team that scored 105 points or more last game.  Doing so has produced a 32-12 ATS mark the last five seasons.  You also want to play the "Under" when the total is 200.0 or higher on home teams like Portland that are seeking revenge for two straight double-digit losses to an opponent when the opponent is off a road win where it scored 110 points or more.  Doing so has produced a 32-9 ATS mark since 1996, a 13-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and a perfect 2-0 ATS record the last three seasons.  Game 3 closed with Portland favored by a single point, and that sets up another strong system.  You want to play the "Under" when the total is 210.0 or higher on all home teams like Portland that are seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more if their opponent is off a double-digit upset win.  Doing so has produced a 30-7 ATS mark since 1996.  We saw 208 total points scored in Game 1 and 211 total points scored in Game 2 so we are getting a good line, especially since I expect this to be the most intense game of the series on the defensive end.  With Portland fighting to stay alive and San Antonio looking to close out the series, defense should take center stage.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards Over 180

The Key: Washington has allowed Indiana to control the tempo the last two games.  It lost both as a result, and both finished way under the total.  The Wizards have managed just nine fast-break points the past two games, and they know that is unacceptable.  I expect them to make an effort to get out and run in Game 4, like they did in Game 1 when they had 14 fast-break points and 198 total points were scored in the game.  The Wizards did an excellent job of controlling the tempo versus the Bulls.  They played fast and four of the five games finished above the number with an average of 184.6 total points scored in these five games.  If you get rid of the low-scoring Game 5, there was an average of 194.8 total points scored between the teams.  The "Over" is 5-0-1 in the Wizard's last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Over.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Mavs/Spurs Under 198.5

The Key: With the stakes raised and a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line, I expect to see these teams play a little tight.  Every single possession means a little bit more in a Game 7, and the pace should slow as a result.  Neither team wants to do the other any favors by taking a bad shot early in the shot clock or turning the ball over.  Plus, we should see outstanding effort on the defensive end from both teams.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more if they are matched up against an opponent that has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games.  Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  We've seen an average of only 188.5 total points scored in this situation.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder Under 186

The Key: Four of the six games played in this series have finished at or under 186 total points in regulation, and I expect this trend to continue.  We have seen an average of 180.3 total points scored in regulation in this series and only 174.5 in regulation over the last four games so we are getting an excellent number.  We only saw 188 total points scored in Game 6 despite OKC hitting 49.3% from the field and going 23 of 25 from the free throw line.  Prior to that game, Memphis had held the Thunder below 40% shooting in four straight games.  I expect another strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies here.  The Thunder are at their best when they are getting out in transition, but Memphis has done an excellent job of controlling the tempo.  Even in Game 6, the Thunder only attempted 75 shots - eight less than their season average.  When the total is between 180.0-189.5 points, you want to play the "Under" on all teams like the Thunder who are off a win of 20 points or more, provided they average 99.0 ppg or more.  Doing so has produced a 109-63 mark since 1996.  We have seen just 182.4 total points scored on average in this situation.  It is also worth noting that Memphis is 11-2 "Under" the last three seasons following a double-digit loss at home.  We have seen only 179.3 total points scored in this spot.  Take the Under.

6* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Bulls Under 184

The Key: Staring elimination in the face, the Bulls will put forth the kind of defensive effort that made them arguably the most-feared defensive team in the NBA during the regular season.  It also plays in our favor that Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA.  Each game of the series has gone over the total so far, and we are catching a good number in Chicago as a result.  You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off three or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off four or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 69-33 mark the last five seasons.  In addition, Chicago is 18-7 "Under" this season in home games when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5.  We have seen just 179.5 total points scored on average in these games.  The Bulls are 10-1 "Under" in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games under coach Thibodeau.  We have seen just 175.3 total points scored on average in these games.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Spurs/Mavericks Under 203.5

The Key: After allowing Dallas to shoot an average of 50.1% from the field in back-to-back defeats, the Spurs will pick up the intensity on the defensive end.  With them doing so, the "Under" becomes a strong play tonight.  When the total is 200.0 to 209.5, you want to take the "Under" on all teams playing with double revenge if they have a winning record and are playing a team with a winning record.  Doing so has produced a 97-60 mark the last five seasons.  In addition, you want to take the "Under" when the line is 200.0 or higher on teams that are seeking revenge for an upset loss if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-11 mark the last five seasons.  These systems speak to the way teams tighten the screws defensively in revenge spots.  Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Nets Under 192

The Key: These teams combined for 200 points in Game 3, but the pace was very slow.  Both teams attempted just 67 shots.  Despite the slow pace, the game finished over the total because both teams shot a high percentage from the field.  Expect another slow grind it out game, and expect the shooting to suffer as the defenses pick up the intensity.  You want to take the "Under" on all teams when the total is 190.0 to 199.5 in the fourth game of a first round playoff series.  That's because doing so has produced a 44-14 (76%) mark since 1996.  Take the Under.
 

6* NBA "Total" Bailout on Rockets/Trail Blazers Under 216.0

The Key: You want to take the "Under" on any team that is off two or more consecutive overs and is playing a team off five or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 42-14 mark the last three seasons.  You also want to play the "Under" on all teams in the third game of a playoff series if the total line is 200.0 or greater.  Doing so has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996.  If the game takes place in the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 42-12.  When the total is 200.0 or higher, you want to take the "Under" on all teams like Houston that are seeking revenge for an upset loss, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60%-75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-9 mark the last five seasons.  The last nine meetings between these teams have finished over the number.  However, Game 1 would have finished under had it not gone to OT.  Plus, these teams have finished over this number just two times in Portland since 2000.  Take the Under.

7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Wizards Under 183.5

The Key: The Bulls have found out that they don't have the offensive firepower to outscore Washington.  They know the only way they can get back in the series is to ramp it up on the defensive end.  I'm confident they'll do just that tonight.  Chicago is 13-3 "Under" when seeking revenge for two straight losses where its opponent scored 100 points or more under coach Thibodeau.  You want to play the "Under" on road teams when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points if they are off two or more consecutive upset losses, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team.  Doing so has produced a 39-15 mark since 1996.  We have seen an average total line of 185.2 for these contests but an average total score of just 180.3.  Chicago is 31-17 "Under" when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5 points this season.  It is also 21-10 "Under" after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Washington is 9-1 "Under" as a home favorite of 3.0 points or less over the last two seasons while Chicago is 18-7 "Under" as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less under coach Thibodeau.  The "Under" is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings between these teams in Washington.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Clippers/Warriors Under 215.5

The Key: Taking the Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series has produced a 66-28 mark since 1996.  If it is the first round of the playoffs, this system explodes to 40-12.  In addition, taking the Under on all teams when the total is 200 or higher that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against a team off a blowout loss of 15 points or more has produced a 74-38 mark the last five seasons.  It is also worth noting that taking the Under on all teams when the total is 210 or higher that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has produced an 80-43 mark since 1996.  We'll follow these time-tested systems to another big totals winner.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Hawks Under 187.5

The Key: I'm taking the Under tonight because I'm confident the Pacers will show up defensively after giving up 101 points in Game 1.  Indiana is 24-9 Under this season when the total is between 180.0 and 189.5, including 14-4 Under at home in this set.  The Pacers are 11-2 this season in home games when the total is between 185.0 and 189.5, and we have seen just 176.1 total points scored on average in these contests.  You also want to play the Under on any team (Atlanta in this case) that is off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against a team that is off five or more consecutive overs.  Doing so has produced a 39-14 mark the last three seasons.  Indiana isn't in good form offensively (which plays right into our hands), but it is more than capable of shutting down Atlanta on the defensive end.  I expect a ferocious defensive effort from the Pacers in this highly motivated spot.  Take the Under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors Under 212.5

The Key: There is some overwhelming history supporting this play on the UNDER.  First off, You want to play the UNDER on any team that has gone over the total in 3 consecutive games or more when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone over in 4 or more consecutive games.  Doing so has produced a 67-29 mark the last five seasons.  If the total is set at 200 or higher, the above system tightens up to 39-16.  In addition, you want to take the UNDER on any team when the total is 200 or higher that is seeking revenge for an upset defeat if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75%.  Doing so has produced a 33-7 mark the last five seasons.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is 210 or higher that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games, provided they have a winning record and are playing a winning team, has produced a 45-18 mark the last five seasons.  These teams combined for 214 points in Game 1, but we've seen 209 total points or less in six of their seven previous meetings.  Take the Under.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Mavs/Spurs Under 206.5

The Key: In four regular-season meetings between these two, we've seen total scores of 223, 202, 218 and 209.  That's good for an average total score of 213 points.  However, we are getting a number much lower than that here.  Clearly, odds makers are begging for the money to come in on the OVER, but we won't oblige them.  Dallas lost all four regular-season matchups, and its three-point defense was a big reason why.  It allowed the Spurs to connect on 42 of 97 three-point attempts and were minus 54 points from beyond the arc.  Head coach Rick Carlisle knows his team must do a much better job defending the three to have a shot in this series, and that is what I expect from the start.  You want to play the UNDER on all teams like Dallas that are playing four games or less in 10 days, provided they have a win percentage of 51% to 60% and are playing a winning team.  Doing so has produced a 75-31 mark the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the Spurs' last 15 games overall, 5-2 in their last seven home games, 8-3 in the last 11 home games versus Dallas and 6-2 in their last eight first round NBA playoff contests.  Take the Under.