5* Wiseguy Super Bowl *BEST BET* on Broncos -2
Bottom Line: Seattle has the No. 1 defense in the NFL, but Denver has the best offense in the league and Seattle hasn't seen anything like it all season. If you want to beat Denver, you better be able to put some points on the board, and I don't see Seattle putting up quite enough. In Denver's 3 losses it gave up 27, 34 and 39 points, and I don't see Seattle putting up a number that big. The Seahawks average 25.7 ppg but have averaged just 20.5 over their last 6 games. So much of what Seattle does offensively stems from its running game and Denver has shown it can stop the run with its 7th-ranked run defense. Ultimately, I love the veteran Peyton Manning making more plays than Russell Wilson. Manning has the decisive edge in terms of experience. I also believe he'll want this game just a little bit more as he tries to put an exclamation point on a sensational career. Seattle is on a 6-17 ATS slide when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more while Denver is on a 15-2 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. The Broncos are also an impressive 21-8 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Pound Denver.

4* Major NFC Championship *PUNISHER* on 49ers +3.5
Bottom Line: I like the 49ers catching better than a field goal in a game that very likely will come down to a field goal. San Francisco's last two trips to Seattle haven't gone well, but the 49ers are playing far too good on both sides of the football and are playing with far too much confidence not to take the Seahawks down to the wire with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. In a game I expect to be close, I give the edge to a San Francisco team that is playing in its 3rd straight NFC Championship game and has proven it can win big games on the road. Last year, the 49ers beat the Falcons in Atlanta to advance to the Super Bowl. The previous year they lost a 3-point game at home in OT to the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants. Colin Kaepernick also has more big game experience than Russell Wilson. Kaepernick is 4-1 in the postseason, including 3-0 on the road. The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 true road games. They are also 10-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NFL Conference Championship Game of the Year on Broncos -4
Bottom Line: The Patriots won the regular-season meeting, but they were at home and had to overcome a 24-0 deficit. They also had the services of Rob Gronkowski in that game while Denver didn't have Julius Thomas. New England hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 1-5 ATS in its last 6, and it clearly has fewer weapons than Denver. The Patriots have leaned on their running game lately, but Denver's 7th-ranked run defense won't allow them to do so. And without Gronk commanding attention, Julian Edelman with have a tougher time finding openings. Peyton Manning's stable of playmakers (Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Knowshon Moreno and Julius Thomas) should find plenty of success against a depleted New England defense. The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Championship games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Denver is also 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.6 points in these games. Pound Denver.

4* Major Divisional Playoffs Bailout on Chargers +9.5
Bottom Line: The Chargers' win in Denver a month ago sets up a situation that has been money. Playing against home favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off back-to-back covers as a favorite has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home mark, and the road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Chargers are playing free and loose, and they'll be lacking no confidence going into Denver. The Broncos will need an unbelievable game from Manning to win this game because their defense is very susceptible, especially against the pass. Philip River will make enough plays to keeps this one within the number.

5* Wiseguy NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on 49ers pk
Bottom Line: The 49ers have advanced to the NFC Championship each of the past two seasons. They've also won their last two road playoff games, and I expect their postseason dominance to continue. Carolina won the earlier meeting 10-9 in San Francisco, but that wasn't the same 49er team it will see Sunday. The San Francisco offense has become a lot more dynamic since the return of Crabtree, going 6-0 since he made his way back into the lineup. With Crabtree playing at a high level, Carolina won't be able to focus all its attention on Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. It also won't be able to sit on the run. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams that have a winning mark at home. The Niners are also 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 13.9 points on average (I got the 49ers at a pk, but they are still favored at a lot of places so this trend applies). Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy AFC Divisional Playoffs Game of the Year on Patriots -7
Bottom Line: Indianapolis has some really good wins this season, but it hasn't beaten anyone without Reggie Wayne. It is 7-3 since Wayne went down but has benefited from a soft schedule. It has played three good teams on the road during this stretch (Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City), and it was blown out by the Cardinals and Bengals. The Colts had a miraculous comeback to beat the Chiefs last week, but I haven't been sold on the Chiefs all season. I think Indy runs into a buzz saw here. The Pats are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season at home when laying 7.5 points or less. Playing against road teams off an upset win at home has resulted in a 53-21 ATS record since 1983 provided they are a winning team playing against winning team. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. Pound the Pats.

4* Major NFC Divisional Playoff *SUREFIRE* on Saints +8
Bottom Line: Playing road underdogs or pickems that average 24.0 ppg or more and are off a win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 66-32 ATS record since 1983. This system is a strong 11-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Saints are too experienced and too good on both sides of the football to get buried in Seattle again. I'll take the points.

4* Major NFC Wild Card Bailout on Packers +3
Bottom Line: Green Bay is a completely different team with Aaron Rodgers under center, and I expect him to lead the Packers to a win Sunday afternoon. San Francisco won the regular season matchup 34-28. However, when the line is +3 to -3, teams that are looking for revenge for a loss of 7 points or fewer are 28-9 ATS the last 10 seasons, provided they are off a victory against a division foe. This system tightens up to 17-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Green Bay is also a stunning 13-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the schedule versus teams that outscore the opposition by 6.0 points per game or more. The Packers are 8-1 ATS under coach McCarthy versus good defensive teams that give up 17.0 points per game or fewer.

5* Wiseguy AFC Wild Card Game of the Year on Chargers +7
Bottom Line: The Bengals won the regular season meeting 17-10 in San Diego, but they benefited from a bye week prior to that contest. They also caught the San Diego at a good time as it was in a letdown spot following a big road win in Kansas City. San Diego has been playing do-or-die games for a month since then, and it has won them all, including an impressive win in Denver. We've seen it before. Teams that get hot at the right time have been very dangerous in the playoffs, and the Chargers have the look of a dangerous team. They are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in January and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 wild card games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Pound San Diego.

5* Wiseguy NFC Wild Card Game of the Year on Saints +3
Bottom Line: Much has been made of New Orleans' issues on the road. The Saints went 3-5 on the road this season but easily could have been better than that. They lost in the closing seconds in New England and Carolina, two teams I have rated higher than the Eagles. Road losses to the Jets and Rams look bad, but both of those teams can play a little defense. The Eagles haven't shown they can stop a team as prolific as New Orleans as they rank 29th in total defense and last against the pass. The Eagles are one of the top offensive teams in the league, but the Saints are 10-2 ATS under Payton versus teams that average 27.0 points per game or more, defeating these teams by 12.0 points on average. Philadelphia is 3-12 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Pound the Saints.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys +7
Bottom Line: This line is a gross overreaction to Tony Romo being out. Frankly, I don't miss Romo at all here as he was 0-3 in regular-season finales with the division title at stake. Kyle Orton has had his share of success in the NFL, and he has an excellent opportunity to succeed here against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in the league against the pass. Playing against road favorites that average 27 or more ppg has resulted in a 37-15 ATS record since 1983 if they led in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. Dallas has had Philly's number, winning each of the last three meetings. Pound the Cowboys.

4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +13
Bottom Line: December home underdogs or pickems are 94-53 ATS since 1983 provided they enter off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses. Playing against any team after a win by 14 or more points that is up against an opponent off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major AFC North *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Ravens +6.5
Bottom Line: Don't count Baltimore out following last week's ugly loss to New England. The Ravens are 4-0 under coach John Harbaugh following a defeat of 20 points or more. The Ravens are also 7-0 ATS under their current coach after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. They have won these 7 contests by an average of 19.4 points. Lastly, the Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Falcons +14.5
Bottom Line: The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, but Atlanta isn't about to roll over. The Falcons were stunned in last season's NFC title game, blowing a 17-0 lead to the 49ers. That loss haunted this team all off season, and it will motivate Atlanta tonight. Atlanta may not have been impressive in last week's win over Washington, but it is on a 10-2 ATS run in road games after being outgained by 200 or more total yards. Plus, playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the number in 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 56-24 ATS record since 1983 if they are a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. Pound Atlanta.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +3
Bottom Line: I'll take the points with the Bears because they likely need to win out to win the NFC North. The Lions have an excellent chance to win out with games against the Giants and Vikings to finish the season and Chicago can't afford to slip up because Detroit owns the tiebreaker. I'm confident the Lions will find a way to beat the Giants, which means the Bears need to take care of business to hold the position of controlling their own destiny. Philly can win the NFC East by beating the Bears if Dallas loses its earlier game against the Redskins. If Dallas beats Washington, the Eagles will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand knowing their playoff fate comes down to a Week 17 showdown at Dallas. If Detroit loses and Green Bay wins, the Bears would need to beat the Packers in Week 17 to reach the playoffs. Regardless if this game can decide anything for either team, the Bears are the play because of their passing game with Cutler or McCown. The Eagles are terrible against the pass, going 0-7 ATS at home the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their pass attempts. Philly is also 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Chicago has the slightly better defense with or without Lance Briggs, who is listed as probable. Bet the Bears.

5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5
Bottom Line: I like New England to win this game. The Patriots have been awesome in bounce-back spots, going 33-5 in their last 38 following a defeat, including 6-0 in their last 6. They are a lethal 15-5 ATS under Belichick following a close loss of 6 points or less. They have responded to win by an average of 12.4 points in this spot. The Patriots lost both meetings to Baltimore last season. One of those cost Tom Brady and company a trip to the Super Bowl so this is a game New England wants desperately. The regular-season loss came by a single point and the Pats have won or lost by fewer than 2.5 points in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Pound New England.

4* Major Early *BEST BET* on Bucs +5
Bottom Line: St. Louis has struggled to defend the pass, and that will give Tampa Bay an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. The Bucs are on a 13-4 ATS run in road games in the second half of the schedule versus teams allowing an average of 7.0 yards or more per pass. Head coach Jeff Fisher prefers to play close to the vest. Because of his mentality, his teams are only 29-47 ATS lifetime when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions -6.5
Bottom Line: The Detroit offense has been unstoppable at Ford Field where it is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.7 points per game. It should be able to move the football almost at will against a Baltimore defense that has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 1-5 on the road, largely because the defense is allowing 26.8 ppg on the highway. The defense isn't solely to blame as it has had to spend way too much time on the field because of an offense that is among the worst in the NFL. Baltimore's only hope is to come up with some takeaways, but it has been among the least opportunistic teams in the AFC all season. The Detroit offense couldn't do much of anything in Philly last week in harsh conditions. However, the Lions are on a 25-6 ATS run after being held to 4.0 yards or less per play in their previous game. Pound the Lions.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3
Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't had near the success on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8. The Bengals have also been a poor investment in division play at 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 versus the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC North and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 versus the Bengals. Roethlisberger is playing well, completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 4 games, and he has a great track record versus Cincy (14-6 lifetime). Cincy has defeated the Steelers by more than 3 points just twice in the last 14 meetings. That's a 12-2 trend leaving no doubt we're on the right side. Bet the Steelers.

4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Rams +7
Bottom Line: New Orleans isn't the same team on the road, period. I know this game will be in a dome, but the Saints struggled to win at the Georgia Dome Nov. 21 and also lost by double-digits as a 13.5-point favorite the last time they visited the Edward Jones Dome. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more per game over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of the season under Fisher versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Additionally, playing against favorites off a win of 14 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points has resulted in a 26-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +5.5
Bottom Line: Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game has resulted in a 29-10 ATS record since 1983 if they're up against a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average but have lost by only 2.2 points on average. This system tightens up to 8-2 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC West while the Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups.

5* Wiseguy NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Bills -1
Bottom Line: Buffalo defeated Jacksonville 34-18 last season while outgaining the Jaguars 344-236. I fully expect the Bills to dominate again in what is a highly-motivated spot. Buffalo held a closed-door meeting following last week's ugly loss at Tampa Bay. That means this team is serious about finishing the season strong. Buffalo has shown what it is capable of with nice wins over the Panthers, Ravens and Dolphins - teams with winning records. The Bills also nearly pulled off wins against the Patriots and Bengals and outgained the Chiefs 470-210. The Bills have been a tremendous investment when coming off a road loss, going 9-1 ATS in this situation the last 2 seasons. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Playing road teams after the first month of the season if the line is +3 to -3 and they are off a road defeat has resulted in a 70-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Buffalo.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Chargers +10.5
Bottom Line: San Diego played Denver to an 8-point game in the first meeting despite getting off to a terrible start. It was able to come back behind a defense that held the Broncos to a season-low 397 yards and an offense that ranks 4th in the league. In a game San Diego absolutely must have to hang on to its slim postseason hopes, I expect it to give the Broncos a game. Denver is on a 5-15 ATS skid after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. The Broncos are also on a 9-22 ATS skid when playing against teams with a win percentage of 40-49%. They are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in the second half of the season versus teams that complete 64% or more of their passes. The road team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run, and the Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 matchups in Denver. Pound San Diego.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +1.5
Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are off 2 or more consecutive losses ATS has resulted in a 93-52 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing all teams (Chicago) when the line is +3 to -3 that average 5.7 yards or more per play has resulted in a 55-28 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they have allowed an average of 400.0 yards or more in their last 3 games. The Cowboys have struggled late in the season, going 11-15 in Romo's December starts. They are also just 6-16 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule over the last 3 seasons, including 0-7 ATS during this stretch when matched up against an excellent offensive team that averages 375 or more yards per game. Dallas is only 9-20 ATS when laying points under Garrett. Pound Chicago.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3
Bottom Line: Look for New Orleans to bounce-back strong at home where they are on an 18-5 ATS run. The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009, and they are 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 21.4 points in this spot.

4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers -2.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Seahawks following their huge MNF victory over the Saints. Seattle is on a 3-12 ATS slide in road games after a win by 21 or more points, losing by an average of 5.4 points in these games. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Chargers -3
Bottom Line: The Chargers have dropped 4 of 5 but have been on the road 3 times during this stretch and have played some good football teams (Denver, KC, Cincy). They'll rebound here against a Giants squad that has dropped 4 of 6 on the road. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.

5* Wiseguy NFL Double Digit Blood Bath Game of the Year on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: Cincy rolls at home against the struggling Colts. Indy is not the same team that has wins over the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. It is 3-2 over its last 5 games but could have been 0-5 during this stretch despite playing just 1 team that currently has a winning record. It hasn't been able to protect Luck, and the constant pressure has taken a toll as he has two touchdowns, five interceptions and a 66.7 passer rating over his last four contests. He's been sacked 29 times this season and was dropped a season-worst five times last week. He will face more pressure here against a Cincy team that has recorded 18 sacks over its last five games. The Bengals are 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning these games by an average of 16.4 points. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jaguars +3.5
Bottom Line: I was on the Texans last week as they covered a big spread in New England while giving the Patriots all they wanted and more. That tough loss sets them up for letdown here, playing on the road in a very short week. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a game in which they covered the spread. Houston has consistently played to the level of its competition under Kubiak, going 1-9 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that give up 27 points or more per game. They have lost to these teams by 2.3 points on average. Pound the Jags.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Seahawks -4.5
Bottom Line: Seattle ranks No. 2 in the NFL in both total and scoring defense as well as No. 1 against the pass. With this defense, it has dominated good offensive teams like New Orleans, especially in the latter part of the season. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in the second half of their schedule over the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 24.0 points or more per game. They have crushed these teams by an average of 11.5 points. Seattle is also 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 5.65 yards or more per play. It has blasted these teams by an average of 18.4 points. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their passes (17.2-pt avg. margin of victory in these games) and 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams averaging 7.0 yards per pass or more (5.8-pt avg. winning margin in these games). The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Last but not least, Seattle is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 26.7 points in these games. Pound Seattle.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +1.5
Bottom Line: Tom Coughlin's NFL teams are just 3-12 ATS lifetime following an upset loss at home to a divisional opponent. The Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, and they've struggled against Washington. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning 3 of these straight up as an underdog.

5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Texans +9
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot if I've ever seen one for the Patriots as they hit the road, where they are 0-3 in their last 3, after an improbable comeback win against Denver. Playing against any team with a winning record that is off an upset victory at home has resulted in a 149-78 (65.6%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Additionally, playing underdogs of pickems in the second half of the season that are riding a losing streak of 6 games or more has resulted in a 122-71 (63.2%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 4-0 ATS this season. Pound Houston.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -2.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs or pickems that are off an upset win of 14 points or more has resulted in a 121-71 ATS record the last 30 seasons. Additionally, playing against road teams after the first month of the season when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win of 10 points or more has resulted in a 48-22 ATS record the last 30 seasons. The Steelers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

5* Wiseguy Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Raiders +9.5
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5-10 points has resulted in an impressive 70-35 ATS record the last 30 seasons if they have won 2 of their last 3 games, carry a win percentage of 51%-60% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 7 points on average but have won by only 4.5 points on average. The Cowboys are a pathetic 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Pound the Raiders.

4* Major Divisional Dominator on Lions -6
Bottom Line: Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss and out for revenge for a loss to the team they're facing has resulted in a 63-28 ATS record the last 30 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.4 points and have won by an average of 12.1. This system is an almost-flawless 11-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +6
Bottom Line: Odds makers are giving a 49ers team that ranks 29th in total offense too much respect on the road. Consider that playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season has resulted in a 65-31 ATS record the last 30 years if they carry a 51-60% win percentage, have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and are playing a losing team. This system is a hot 12-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against road favorites that have covered the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in a 60-28 ATS record the last 30 years if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a losing team. Washington is just 3-7 but has played 6 of those on the road where it has struggled. The Redskins are 6-2 in their last 8 regular-season home games, including 2-0 in their last 2. Pound the Redskins.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots +3
Bottom Line: In the battle between Brady and Manning, I'm not hesitating to go with Brady at home catching points. Brady is 9-4 all-time versus Manning, including 7-2 at home. The Pats are on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. Plus, they are 15-6 ATS versus teams that average 29.0 points or more and 17-8 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage above 75% under Belichick.

4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cardinals -1
Bottom Line: Indy is extremely lucky to be 2-1 and not 0-3 in its last 3 games as it had to overcome a 24-6 deficit against the Texans and a 17-3 deficit against the Titans. It was smacked 38-8 by the Rams in the other game. Arizona has quality home wins over Detroit and Carolina and is 4-1 at home overall. It should continue its strong play at home with the knowledge Bruce Arians has of Indy's personnel and its tendencies. The defensive side of the ball has been a major issue for the Colts as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Cards are 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Zona has won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot.

4* Major Divisional Dominator on Browns -1
Bottom Line: Pittsburgh has won 2 in a row, but both were at home. I expect a different story as it ventures out on the road where it is just 4-13 ATS versus AFC opponents the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 3.6 points on average. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cleveland. They fell 20-14 in their most recent trip to Cleveland, and I expect them to go down again as the offense struggles against the Browns' stingy 5th-ranked stop unit.

4* Major Divisional Dominator on Chargers +5.5
Bottom Line: The Chiefs are 9-1 but can't be trusted laying this many points against the Chargers. San Diego is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points. Additionally, KC is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 5.6 points in this spot.

5* Wiseguy NFL Public Massacre Game of the Month on Dolphins +4.5
Bottom Line: Carolina is riding a 6-game SU and ATS streak with big wins over San Francisco and New England in its last 2. And, it is up against a team that is dealing with off-the-field issues. Naturally, the money is rolling in on the Panthers (85% of the money at the time of this report), and I expect it to continue to come in on them as TV analysts hype Carolina as a Super Bowl contender. Cam Newton and company are hearing about how great they are, which makes it difficult to maintain a chip. Miami is the team with more to prove right now as it has an opportunity to persevere in the face of controversy. The Dolphins did just that last week with a win over San Diego, and they'll be lacking no motivation here as they are tied with the New York Jets for the AFC's second wild-card spot. I like Miami in this spot regardless, but it bolsters its chances of an outright win with Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson expected to miss the game. He is tied for ninth in the league with 8 1/2 sacks. No team has won by more than a field goal in Miami in their last 7 tries. Plus, the Phins are 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 13.2 points in this spot. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Game of the Year on Falcons +10
Bottom Line: The Falcons are 11-3 ATS following a double-digit loss under coach Mike Smith, winning by an average of 6.8 points in this spot. Additionally, home dogs or pickems that are 1-5 or 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games are 70-38 ATS the last 30 years if they have won 25% of their games or fewer and are playing a winning team in the second half of the schedule. Atlanta may pack it in after this game, but it will not roll over at home against its biggest rival. 9 of the last 10 meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and I expect another close game tonight. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots +3
Bottom Line: It's hard not to like the Patriots catching points. They are 40-19 ATS as an underdog under Belichick, including 31-16 ATS as a road dog. The Carolina defense has been stout, but the advantage goes to Tom Brady and the New England offense tonight as it should benefit from having had an extra week to scheme. The Pats have quietly scored 27 or more in four straight games and busted out for 55 against the Steelers last time out so they are starting to click. New England is 26-11 ATS under Belichick versus good defensive teams that allow an average of 285 yards or less per game. This trend tightens up to 16-4 ATS if the game takes place in the second half of the season. Brady is 13-4 on Monday Night Football, and the Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday nighters. Pound the Pats.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Broncos -7.5
Bottom Line: While a bye week gave KC a chance to get healthier and prepare, it also killed its momentum. The last thing you want when you're rolling is a change in routine. Kansas City's defense has carried it to this point but it has done so against a soft schedule and now it goes up against the No. 1 offensive team in the league. Denver has been a reliable favorite in this range as it is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by 13.6 points on average. The Broncos are on a 14-4 ATS run versus very good defensive teams that give up 14 or less points per game. KC is on a 3-14 ATS skid in road games versus excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt. It has lost to these teams by 17.5 points on average.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +3.5
Bottom Line: Look for the 49ers to bounce-back strong after blowing a 9-0 lead in last week's loss to the Panthers. Time and time again SF has been up to the challenge against elite competition since Harbaugh took over. Consider that the Niners are 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. above 75%) under Harbaugh. They haven't just defeated these teams, they've whipped them by an average of 14.3 points. Harbaugh is 2-0 against the Saints the last 2 seasons, and I believe he has their number again.

4* Major Divisional Dominator on Bills +1.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road squads with a winning record has produced a 102-53 ATS record since 1983 if they are coming off an upset victory at home. Keep in mind this system has produced a 5-1 ATS result this season. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and will continue their solid play at home here.

4* Major Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset win at home has resulted in a 67-33 ATS record since 1983 if they are going against a team that is off a road loss. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.4 point on average and have lost by 10.7 points on average. This system is 18-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Bengals are on a 5-0 ATS run at home, winning these by an average of 13.4 pts.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Colts -1
Bottom Line: Since Andrew Luck took over as starter, the Colts haven't lost consecutive games. They are 7-0 SU and ATS following a loss with Luck under center, winning these games by 7.1 points on average.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucs +3
Bottom Line: Miami came up with a big upset win over the Bengals in its last game, but it is on a 20-37 ATS slide following an upset win. The Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday Night Football games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bucs. Playing on underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight games or more has resulted in a 108-63 ATS record the last 30 years if they have a winning percentage of 25% or lower on the season. The Bucs have taken two of the best teams in the NFL (Saints and Seahawks) right down to the wire and have played two other winning teams (Jets and Cardinals) to within 3 points or less so they will be full of confidence when they take the field tonight. Look for Tampa Bay to notch its first win of the season.

4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cowboys +7
Bottom Line: Dallas is 5-4 SU (7-2 ATS) on the season, and the extremely talented Cowboys could easily be 8-1 SU. Dallas has found ways to lose 3 games by 3 points or fewer (2 of those came by 1 point), but those losses came to the Chiefs, Broncos and Lions - teams that are 21-4 on the season. Dallas has lost its last two versus the Saints by 3 points so it will be out for some revenge here. It spoiled the Saints' undefeated season the last time it visited the Superdome so it will be lacking no confidence. The underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that were held to 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games has resulted in a 48-20 ATS record since 1983 if they're matched up against an opponent that was outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This system has gone 6-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* Major Late Afternoon Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on 49ers -5.5
Bottom Line: The Panthers have rattled off 4 consecutive wins both SU and ATS, but those came against teams that are 7-27 combined on the season. I'm confident they meet their match this week on the road against the defending NFC champion 49ers, who have had an extra week to prepare. The 49ers are 16-6 ATS in home games under Harbaugh, winning these by 11.5 points on average. They are 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Harbaugh, winning these by an average of 10.9 points. Lastly, the Niners are 9-2 ATS under their current coach as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning these contests by 13.0 points on average.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Vikings +3
Bottom Line: I don't see a Washington defense that ranks 22nd against the run having answer for Adrian Peterson, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Coach Shanahan's squads are just 10-23 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule since 1992 versus good running teams that average 4.5 yards or more per carry. They have lost by an average of 5.7 points in this spot. Pound Minnesota.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Chicago Bears +11
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points has resulted in a 63-30 ATS record the last 30 years, provided they are off 2 of more consecutive wins and have won 60%-75% of their games on the season. Additionally, playing on road dogs of pickems in Weeks 9 or later after a road game when both it and its opponent scored 24 or more points has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Bears don't have Cutler, but veteran backup McCown looked good against Washington and has had a bye week to get all the practice snaps. He has running back Matt Forte, receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and tight end Martellus Bennett to lean on. That's a better cast of playmakers than what Rogers has healthy right now. This is a huge game for the Bears as a win pulls them into a 3-way tie for first in the division. With that as a motivator, look for Chicago to keep this one close.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +2.5
Bottom Line: I really like Houston's chances of picking up the "W" at home behind its top-ranked stop unit. Home field has meant everything in this matchup of late. The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings, and each of Houston's 3 wins during this stretch came by double digits. Additionally, Houston is on an 11-3 ATS run at home versus AFC foes and a 10-2 ATS run at home following a loss by 3 or less points.

4* Major Late Afternoon Marquee Matchup on Steelers +7
Bottom Line: The Steelers fit neatly into a system that has been extremely lucrative - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game are 28-8 ATS the last 30 years when they're facing a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 consecutive contests. The Steelers have a history of coming up big in big games. They are 36-15 ATS teams with a winning percentage greater than 75% since 1992. Additionally, the underdog have covered 9 out of the last 11 times these franchises have faced off.

4* Major Late Afternoon *POWER PLAY* on Eagles +3
Bottom Line: There's plenty of reasons to fade the Raiders following last week's upset win over Pittsburgh. The Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. Oakland is 3-14 ATS off an upset win at home since 1992 and 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less during the same time frame.

4* Major Early Marquee Matchup on Jets +6.5
Bottom Line: You can count how many times the Saints have won by more than 6 points on the road in their last 18 opportunities on 1 hand - 4 times. Looking back further, they have won by more than 6 points on the road just 9 times in their last 35 tries. It's unmistakable that New Orleans is being overvalued here. Playing on home underdogs or pickems that trailed in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half has resulted in a 33-11 ATS record if they are up against a foe that scored 30 points or more last game. Teams fitting this scenario are 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Year on Titans -3
Bottom Line: I love the Titans in this spot. They will be very motivated as they have seen their 3-1 start evaporate due to a brutal stretch where they played the Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers. They have had an extra week to focus solely on the Rams and to get healthy. Starting QB Jake Locker, who missed the Kansas City and Seattle games, is near 100.0 percent again. He's having a good season, completing a career-high 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,047 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He should find success against a St. Louis defense that is allowing 24.8 points and 343.6 yards per game. This is a terrible spot for the Rams, who poured their hearts into Monday night's game against Seattle only to have them ripped out when Kellen Clemens overthrew his intended target on the final play. That's the kind of loss that's hard to recover from, especially in 5 short days. Playing on road faves that have lost at least 2 straight games if they are a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team has resulted in a 9-0 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The Tennessee Titans are also 3-0-1 ATS all-time against the St. Louis Rams. Pound Tennessee!

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Dolphins +3
Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that have covered in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, provided they are a team with a win rate of 60%-75% and are taking on a losing team, has resulted in a 59-28 ATS record the last 30 years. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Miami. This includes a 17-13 home loss last season. Pound the Fish.

4* Major MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +13.5
Bottom Line: Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points that outrush opponents by 40.0 yards or more per game and are up against an opponent that gets outrushed by 40.0 yards or more per game has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 13.5 points on average but have won by just 10.6 points on average. This system is 9-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points that outgain their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in 2 straight games, has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record the last 30 years. Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 7.1 points on average. This system is 14-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Seattle is 3-1 on the road, but none of these wins have come by more than 12 points. Bet the Rams.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Vikings +10
Bottom Line: Minnesota is not as bad as it has looked the past 2 weeks, and it will have no problem getting up for Green Bay. The Vikings have won or lost by less than 10 points in 20 of their last 24 meetings with Green Bay. There is plenty of additional information supporting this play on the Vikings as well. Playing against teams that are off a win of 14 points or more has resulted in a 32-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they're up against an opponent that is off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points. Playing against road favorites that gave up 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games has resulted in a 97-56 ATS record the last 30 years in they're up against a team that lost by 14 points or more last game. Playing on home underdogs or pickems that have failed to cover the number in 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record, has resulted in a 115-59 ATS record the last 30 years.

4* Major NFL Double Digit Blood Bath on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: The Jets have failed to win consecutive games, and I believe they'll come out flat following their biggest win of the season. Following their last 2 victories, they've been absolutely pounded. They lost 38-13 at Tennessee after beating Buffalo, and they lost 19-6 to Pittsburgh following a victory over Atlanta. Playing against teams that are coming off an upset win over a division rival at home, provided the "play against" team has a winning record and is taking on a winning team, has resulted in a 39-13 ATS record the last 30 years. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by 10.0 points on average. This system is an unbeaten 4-0 ATS the last 3 seasons, and that does not bode well for the Jets. The Bengals are back home, where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, after back-to-back weeks on the road, and they'll be ready to roll the inconsistent Jets.

5* Wiseguy NFC Game of the Year on Lions -3
Bottom Line: Dallas' 17-3 upset win at Philadelphia plays right into our hands as plays against road teams after the first month of the season when the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset win by 10 points has produced a 48-20 ATS record the last 30 years. Additionally, playing against all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that allowed only 6 points last game and are facing a foe that lost by 3 or fewer points last game has produced a 28-6 ATS record the last 30 years. Dallas is an NFL-best 6-1 ATS this season, which is a surprise considering the Cowboys are a public team. Dallas' fast start against the number assures the books that Cowboy backers will be ready to ride their team. This tells me it's time to go the other way. Dallas is only 5-21 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of its last 4 games the last 21 years. This a tough spot for Dallas playing back-to-back road games following a big division win. The Lions will be mighty hungry following a close loss last week, and I expect them to level Dallas in this spot. Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on NY Giants -3.5
Bottom Line: The Giants have essentially had a bye week to prepare for this contest as they haven't played since Thursday Oct. 10. Having extra time to prepare for an opponent has bred good results as teams coming off Thursday games are 8-3 ATS this season. Eli Manning has struggled to this point, but I trust the two-time champ a lot more here than I do Josh Freeman, who has been with the Vikings less than 2 weeks. I expect the Giants to stack the box on Adrian Peterson, making Freeman beat them through the air, and that's something I don't think he'll be able to do in his first start with a new team. It takes time to build chemistry and get in sync with the receivers. I just don't think the timing will be there tonight. Pound New York.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (NBC) on Colts +7
Bottom Line: The Colts are 6-0 ATS in a home game when the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons. They are 7-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Texans +7
Bottom Line: The Texans are a much better team than they have shown, and I'm not completely sold on the Chiefs. Three of Houston's losses have come to the defending Super Bowl champs (Baltimore) and Super Bowl contenders San Francisco and Seattle while the Chiefs have benefited from a soft schedule. Houston has been hurt by turnovers, but it can win this game if it limits its giveaways Sunday. That's because the Texans, who rank No. 1 in total defense, should be able to slow down a Kansas City offense that ranks 25th in the league. Playing against favorites after a win by 14 or more points that are going against an opponent that is coming off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has produced a 25-7 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Houston.

4* Major Late Afternoon *POWER PLAY* on Titans +4.5
Bottom Line: The Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after being held to 250 yards or less in their previous game.

4* Major NFL Early *POWER PLAY* on Redskins +1
Bottom Line: The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus NFC foes. They are also 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350.0 yards or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these six by an average of 6.7 points.

4* Major Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Panthers -6
Bottom Line: St. Louis has turned in its two best performances of the season on the ground the last two weeks and has come away with victories as a result. Unfortunately, I don't see St. Louis doing much of anything on the ground against a Carolina defense that ranks 4th in the NFL against the run. The Panthers have held their last two opponents to 90 rushing yards or less, and they are 6-0 ATS lifetime under Rivera after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. They have won by 10.6 points on average in this spot. St. Louis is 8-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992, losing by an average of 14.6 in this spot. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Carolina. 3 of these losses came by 13 points or more.

5* Wiseguy NFC West Game of the Month on Cardinals +7
Bottom Line: The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings with 3 of those being decided by 4 points or less so Arizona is definitely showing value as a home dog of more than 4 points. Additionally, Arizona is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Seahawks. The Cardinals are 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS defeat. Pound Arizona.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Chargers +2
Bottom Line: This is a tough situation for the Colts as it is both a letdown and look ahead spot coming off last week's huge victory over the Seahawks and with a huge game against Peyton Manning and company up next. However, this is a highly motivated spot for San Diego, which is coming off its worst performance of the season. Playing against favorites that have a winning record on the season and are coming off an upset win at home has produced a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season and a 10-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. When the line is +3 to -3, playing on teams like San Diego that gained 400 yards or more last game and average 5.8 yards or more per play has produced a 17-2 ATS mark the last 3 seasons when they're up against a team like Indy that gives up 5.4-5.8 yards per play. The Chargers have won 5 of their last 6 against the Colts, including the last 2. Pound the Chargers as I love them to win this one outright.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +6
Bottom Line: Teams headed up by Shanahan are 12-3 ATS all-time when playing on 2 weeks of rest or more. The Redskins are 6-0 ATS under Shanahan in road games versus teams with a 25% to 40% win rate. Washington is 7-0 ATS since the beginning of last season versus teams that give up 235.0 passing yards or more per game. The Redskins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas. The underdog is 23-7 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

4* Major Sunday NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Patriots -2.5
Bottom Line: The Patriots are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games following a loss. Additionally, they are 8-1 ATS under coach Belichick after scoring 9 points or less in their last game. They have won by an average of 14.7 points in this situation.

4* Major NFL Underdog Shocker on Buccaneers +2
Bottom Line: The Eagles, which haven't won consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2 last season, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye.

4* Major Sunday NFL Early Blowout on Texans -7
Bottom Line: St. Louis is 1-12 ATS on the road versus teams averaging 375 yards or more per game since 1992. It has lost by an average of 21.0 points in this situation.

4* Major Sunday NFL Super System Smoker on Lions -2.5
Bottom Line: Favorites that allow 6.0 yards per play or more and have given up 375 yards or more in 3 consecutive games are 32-9 ATS the last 10 seasons. These teams have won by 13.6 points on average in this situation. This system is 2-0 ATS this season.

5* Wiseguy AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +3
Bottom Line: Teams coming off a bye that are 0-4 or worse are on a 21-4 ATS run. The bye couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh. It will be refreshed, fully prepared and ready to break into the win column. Additionally, this is a hangover spot for the Jets, playing on a short week following a big upset win on the road. The Steelers are 7-3 in their last 10 versus the Jets, including 2-0 in their last two. Pound Pittsburgh.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month on Giants +9
Bottom Line: Road teams that have been beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 31-8 ATS the last 10 seasons if they have won 25% or less of their games on the season. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs by 9.7 points on average but have lost by only 5.7 points on average. This system illustrates how much the books overvalue teams facing weak opponents that have been losing big ATS. The value clearly lies with the Giants. Pound New York.

4* Major NFL *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Raiders +4.5
Bottom Line: The Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Raiders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 versus AFC foes, and underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cowboys +9
Bottom Line: The Broncos are 3-12 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. They have won these contests on average but only by 5.2 points. This trend shows the way books tend to overvalue high-scoring teams. Dallas hasn't lost by more than 7 points in any of its last 8 home games.

4* Major AFC *SUREFIRE* on Titans +3
Bottom Line: The Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Underdogs or pickems with a turnover margin of +1/game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers, are 26-6 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bears +1
Bottom Line: Playing on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that average 27 ppg or more and are coming off 3 or more consecutive overs has produced a 29-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Also, the home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NFL Public Massacre GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals pk
Bottom Line: Currently, nearly 90.0 percent of the ATS bets have come in on the Patriots yet the line has moved the other way. Oddsmakers clearly aren't sold on New England in this spot and sharps absolutely love the Bengals here. I couldn't agree more with the sharps. The Patriots are 4-0, but they are not the better team, especially on the road without Vince Wilfork. The Bengals are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 at home, including 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3. Also, plays against road teams that put up 30 or more points last game are 82-42 ATS the last 10 seasons if they're up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Pound the Bengals.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Browns -3.5
Bottom Line: Expect the banged-up Bills to come up short on the road tonight. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games following a home game over the last 3 seasons. It has lost by 17.2 points on average in this situation. Pound the Browns.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Saints -7
Bottom Line: New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, including 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or fewer during this span. The Saints have completely picked apart soft passing defenses under coach Payton. They are 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams that give up 235 or more passing yards/game under Payton and have won these contests by 22.2 points on average. Pound New Orleans.