4* Major NCAAF Total of the Week (ESPN2) on Illinois/Fresno State UNDER 58
Bottom Line: Expect a lot lower scoring game than we saw a season ago. I expect Illinois to show some rust playing clear out West and after a long break. Plus, Fresno State leading rusher Robbie Rouse is not expected to be able to go tonight. That really hurts the Bulldog offense. The Under is 4-1 in the Fighting Illini's last 5 games as a road favorite and 5-2 in the Bulldogs' last 7 Friday games. Bet the Under.

4* Major MAC "Total" Blowout (ESPN2) on Miami Ohio/Bowling Green UNDER 50.5
Bottom Line: Miami Ohio has played to the Under in 4 straight. This comes as no surprise considering how much its offense has struggled this season. Miami's biggest problem has been its inability to run the football, which leads to our play tonight. The Redhawks are 7-0 Under in their last 7 games after being held to 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games. We are only seeing an average of 36.8 total points scored in this situation. With extra time to prepare for Miami's one-dimensional offense, I expect the Bowling Green defense to play one of its best games of the season tonight. Bet the Under.

4* Major NCAAF Primetime Total (ESPN2) on Central Florida/Houston UNDER 62.5
Bottom Line: This line is not representative of how good the UCF defense is. We're talking about a unit that has only allowed an average of 13.7 points on the road this season. In addition, I have uncovered a strong system in our favor tonight. Plays Under on all teams (UCF) where the total is between 56.5 and 63 points after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last game, if they are facing an opponent coming off a contest where 60 or more total points were scored, are an impressive 50-20 (71.4%) the last 10 seasons. We have only seen an average of 55.6 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

4* Major Big East Total of the Month on WVU/UConn UNDER 46
Bottom Line: WVU has played to the Under in 4 of 6 lined games this season, which comes as no surprise considering it boasts one of the best defenses in the entire country. The Under is 5-1 in the Mountaineers' last 6 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 played under the Friday night lights. The WVU offense has struggled in recent weeks. With this is mind, and with as well as the "D" has played, I'm pounding the Under.

5* Wiseguy Big 12 Total of the Year on Nebraska/K-State UNDER 50
Bottom Line: K-State knows its best chance to beat Nebraska is to grind this one out with its running game. K-State took that approach into Lincoln last season, and it was able to rack up 140 yards on the ground. Its running game kept the clock moving, and as a result, we only saw a total of 20 points scored. It is also worth noting that K-State held Nebraska to just 101 rushing yards in last year's contest, and it took Nebraska 45 carries to get those yards. With a freshman QB on the road in a hostile environment, I expect the Huskers to look to their ground game tonight. I also expect the Wildcats to have success in slowing it down. The Under is 4-0 in the Wildcats' last 4 conference games and 7-2 in the Cornhuskers' last 9 conference games. The Under is also 10-4 in the Cornhuskers' last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. I expect a run-heavy offensive strategy by both teams to result in this one coming in Under the number.

4* Major NCAAF "Total" Blowout on UL Monroe/Arkansas St Under 51.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 18-7-1 in the Red Wolves' last 26 games overall. In addition, the Under is 6-1 in the Warhawks' last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. We saw these two teams combine for only 26 points in last year's meeting. In fact, 3 of the last 4 meetings have come in way under this number. Expect another low-scoring affair today between a pair of pretty evenly matched teams.

4* Major NCAAF "Total" Dominator (ESPN 2) on Cal/Nevada OVER 65.5
Bottom Line: We should see a shootout tonight as a pair of high-powered offenses take center stage. Cal put 52 on Colorado, and Nevada put 51 on Colorado State, so I have little down that they can each score at least 35 tonight. The Over is 5-1 in the Golden Bears' last 6 games in September and 12-3-1 in their last 16 non-conference games. The Over is also 10-4 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy National TV Total of the Week (ESPN) on Cincy/NC State UNDER 54
Bottom Line: Neither of these offenses have looked like the high-powered units we saw last season, and playing on Thursday night hasn't been the recipe for a high scoring game for either side. In fact, the Under is 13-3 in the Wolfpack's last 16 Thursday games and 8-1 in the Bearcats' last 9 Thursday games. In addition, plays Under on any team (CINCINNATI) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games, against an opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games, are 82-41 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing 45.2 total points scored on average in this spot. Cincy's offensive line has been greatly tested, and NC State only managed 239 yards against UCF last week. Like the Under here.

4* Major on Northwestern/Vanderbilt UNDER 43
Bottom Line: Vandy was one of the worst offensive teams in the country last season, only scoring 16.3 points per game, and I don't expect much to change. Plus, Northwestern won't be as explosive in the opener as it breaks in a new starting QB. Northwestern is an impressive 8-1 UNDER in road games over the last 3 seasons, and Vandy is 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF Total of the Week on Arizona/Toledo OVER 59.5
Bottom Line: Toledo boasted the No. 1 ranked offense in the MAC last season, and I expect this unit to remain high-powered under QB Austin Dantin, who played well in 7 games (3 starts) last season. In Toledo's first 2 games of 2009 against Purdue and Colorado, we saw 83 and 92 total points scored respectively. In fact, Toledo is 25-8 OVER in all home lined games since 1992, including 9-1 OVER in home games in September. With Arizona boasting explosive offensive weapons in QB Nick Foles and RB Nic Grigsby, but losing nearly all of its defensive starters, I expect the offenses to put on a show tonight. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy Bowl Total of the Year on Boise State/TCU UNDER 54
Bottom Line: The public is pounding the Over as they see a couple of the nation's top 2 offenses facing off, but I have to go against the grain here. TCU's defense shut down the Broncos last season in the Poinsettia Bowl and it is even better this season. In fact, TCU is 6-0 Under vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 36.4 total points scored in these games. The Under is also 5-0-1 in the Horned Frogs' last 6 Bowl games and 5-0 in the Broncos' last 5 vs. the MWC. Pound the Under.

4* Major NCAAF Total of the Week on Iowa/Ohio St UNDER 38
Bottom Line: Defense is the strength of both of these teams and I expect each team to play this one very close to the vest because of it. Iowa is 9-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and 15-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. Take the Under.

3* ESPN Prime Time Total on USF/Rutgers UNDER 45
Bottom Line: S. Florida is 6-0 Under when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these games has totaled just 33.1 points. The books are confident in a low-scoring game here and they are looking to cash in big with the public so heavily on the Over. Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are offensively and because of that I don't see more than 40 points being scored in this one. Bet the Under.

4* Major Prime Time Total (ESPN 2) on Toledo/Central Mich OVER 61
Bottom Line: With plenty of time to rest and prepare, I look for these potent offense to produce some fireworks tonight. C. Mich is 12-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and that's a huge possibility considering that each team is averaging over that mark. In fact, the average score in those 12 games totaled 78.6 points. The last time these two teams faced off at CMU, we saw 83 combined points. Expect a high scoring affair this evening.

5* Wiseguy ESPN "Total" Prime Time Pounder on VA Tech/ECU OVER 51
Bottom Line: We saw these two teams combine for 49 points last season in a game where only 612 yards of offense were gained. Both teams have taken steps forward offensively this season while the defense of each team has taken a step back. If ECU gave up 31 points to an offensively challenged UNC team, I believe the Hokies, which are averaging 30.6 ppg, can get at least as many in this bounce back and revenge spot. ECU is unbeaten at home where its offense has been rolling, scoring 32.3 ppg. The Over is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 non-conference games, 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 vs. the ACC, and 7-1 in the Pirates last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Over.

3* MAC "Total" Massacre on Miami Ohio/Temple OVER 42
Bottom Line: Miami Ohio's offense has looked pretty good in each of its last 2 games, scoring 53 total points. The Redhawks should be able to provide enough offense to carry this one over the total. Temple put up 28 points on the Redhawks at Miami Ohio last season. The Owls are averaging exactly that many points at home this season and I look for them to best the 28 as they have taken their play up another notch, averaging 31.3 over their last6 3 games. Miami Ohio is on a 27-13 OVERS run when it allows 28 or more points. Bet the OVER.

3* SUREFIRE (ESPN) on Tulsa/UTEP Over 59
Bottom Line: We've seen an average of 82 points put on the board in each of the last six meetings between these two teams, including 112 last year and 95 the year before. With both teams looking to bounce back from losses in their last game, I expect to see both offenses running on all cylinders tonight. Tulsa does not have as much offensive firepower as it has had the past couple seasons but it is starting to find its groove under G.J. Kinne. The fact that the Golden Hurricane have not made it over the number yet this season has forced odds makers to drop this line. I believe they have brought it down too low and we'll look to take advantage.

5* Wiseguy Bowl Total of the Month on LSU/Georgia Tech UNDER 53
Offenses have been rusty during the bowl season after long lay offs and we expect this trend to continue here. It has not been the season LSU expected after winning it all last year but there is no way these boys are going to go down without a fight and they'll do it with defense. LSU is 30-15 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. Plays under on any team against the total (LSU) - in non-conference games, off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more are 38-8 the last 10 seasons. Take the Under.

3* Alamo Bowl Total SUREFIRE on Northwestern/Missouri UNDER 67
Northwestern has a better defense than the Tigers are used to seeing in the Big 12 North, but its spread offense is not as good as many of the offenses in the Big 12. Mizzou will score points, but not enough to send this one over a big number. Northwestern is 9-1 UNDER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse since 1992. The average score in these games totaled 51 points. Pound the Under.