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NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-03-15	Connecticut v. Florida -9.5		63-59	Loss	-105	5 h 16 m	Show
4* MAJOR NON-CONFERENCE MARQUEE MATCHUP (CBS) on Florida -9.5 Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Florida, which lost to UConn in last season's Final Four. The Gators are an impressive 114-89 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under coach Donovan, including 39-27 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Florida is on a 65-38 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.
12-31-14	Marquette v. DePaul +4.5	Top	58-61	Win	100	6 h 2 m	Show
5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on DePaul +4.5 Bottom Line: Marquette is 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games following 2 consecutive double-digit wins and has lost these games by an average of 7.0 points. Additionally, DePaul is 14-5 ATS in home games against teams with win percentages of 60-80% under coach Purnell. Pound DePaul.
12-30-14	Pennsylvania +11.5 v. La Salle		67-84	Loss	-102	8 h 40 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Penn +11.5 Bottom Line: LaSalle is 2-10 ATS since 1997 after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. The Explorers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 versus Ivy League opponents and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are 10-24 ATS in non-conference home games under coach Giannini and 27-41 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under their current coach. The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Playing road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) playing against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) has resulted in a 70-33 ATS record since 1997, provided the play on team allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher last time out.
12-29-14	St. Joe's v. Denver -4.5		73-77	Loss	-106	10 h 36 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB HOME COURT SUREFIRE on Denver -4.5 Bottom Line: After giving Colorado State all it wanted, Denver suffered a letdown and lost to lowly Bryant. It was the kind of loss that gets the blood boiling. The Pioneers lost at St. Joe's by 1 points last season so they will draw added motivation from that. Home court has been good to Denver. It is 56-36 ATS in lined home games under coach Scott, including 23-10 ATS as a home favorites of 6 points or less or pickem. Additionally, Scott's teams are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games following a game where they shot 20% or worse from beyond the arc. They've won these seven by an average of 9.3 points.
12-29-14	Portland v. BYU -10		88-97	Loss	-100	9 h 9 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH on BYU -10 Bottom Line: This may seem like a lot of points for 10-4 BYU to be laying against 10-3 Portland, but this is a tough spot for Portland. The Pilots are playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. BYU is also playing a 2nd game in 3 days but has been at home the entire time, and that makes quick turnarounds much easier. The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing a 2nd game in 3 days under coach Rose, and they have won these games by 23.0 points on average. BYU is 5-0 in its last 5 home games versus Portland with these wins coming by an average of 15.0 points.
12-28-14	Rutgers v. Monmouth -2.5		59-58	Loss	-102	3 h 7 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Monmouth -2.5 Bottom Line: Monmouth is coming off a pathetic performance against Saint Francis-New York. However, playing favorites that return all 5 starters and are off a game where they were held to 60 points or fewer has resulted in a 161-97 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Rutgers defeated Saint Francis-NY at home earlier this season by 3 points yet it is an underdog to a team that was just crushed by the same opponent? It appears odds makers are begging for money on Rutgers. Take Monmouth.
12-23-14	Arkansas State v. Niagara +2		74-69	Loss	-106	7 h 13 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Niagara +2 Bottom Line: Off back-to-back wins over Mississippi State and Marshall, Arkansas State will be looking right past a Niagara team it blew out last season. I'm playing the revenge angle here as this is the first home game for the Purple Eagles since Dec. 6, and they'll be ready to get their revenge in front of their home crowd. Arkansas State is 19-36 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite under coach John Brady, including 6-17 ATS the last 3 seasons.
12-22-14	Providence v. Miami (FL) -1.5		76-62	Loss	-110	8 h 59 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Miami -1.5 Bottom Line: Look for Miami to bounce back strong following an ugly loss to Eastern Kentucky. The Hurricanes managed only 44 points on 29.3% shooting, but they are on a 13-1 ATS run when playing away from home after a game where they made 33% of their shots or less. They are on a 6-0 ATS run in games played away from home after being held to 55 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.
12-21-14	Southern Mississippi v. Georgia State -18.5		55-68	Loss	-105	4 h 57 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Georgia State -18.5 Bottom Line: The Panthers will be highly motivated following a loss at Old Dominion, and they'll show no mercy to a So. Miss team they lost to last season. The Panthers have played just 2 home games this season and won both handily. The 24-point win over Wisconsin-Green Bay was very impressive. So. Miss is 0-3 on the road this season and has been smacked by 23 and 20 points in its last 2 road games. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
12-20-14	Penn State v. Drexel +7		73-68	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Drexel +7 The Key: Penn State is getting a little too much respect in this neutral floor contest. The Nittany Lions have been a terrible investment at 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games overall. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. These teams have played two like opponents this season and had very similar results. Drexel defeated Cornell by 2 points, Penn State defeated Cornell by 1. Drexel lost to USC by 2 points, Penn State defeated USC by 2 points. The results of those games show me this line is being inflated due to Penn State's overall record (10-2) versus Drexel's overall record (2-7). Grab the points.
12-19-14	St. Mary's +7 v. St. John's		47-53	Win	100	6 h 2 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Saint Mary's +7 Bottom Line: Look for St. Mary's to give St. John's all it wants and more tonight. The Gaels got caught in a sandwich last game, losing to Northern Arizona, as they were off a big win at Creighton and had this contest on deck. The loss assures us they will be even more motivated. The Gaels are 11-3 ATS off a home loss of 3 points or less under coach Bennett. There is also another factor at play that can't be ignored. St. John's is 3-19 ATS after committing 8 turnovers or less under coach Lavin.
12-18-14	Seton Hall v. South Florida +6		89-69	Loss	-110	8 h 26 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on South Florida +6 Bottom Line: Seton Hall is being overvalued here because it is 8-0 ATS in lined games this season. That's the type of streak the public takes notice of and the type of streak the books like to use against the public. The Pirates are 8-1 but have been aided by a schedule that has included just 1 road game to this point. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. It is also 8-2 in the last 10 with neither of the losses coming by more than 5 points. That creates a perfect 10-0 matchup trend given the number we are getting here.
12-17-14	New Mexico State +13.5 v. Baylor		55-66	Win	100	10 h 2 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on New Mexico State +13.5 Bottom Line: Baylor is being overvalued at home. The Bears haven't played since Dec. 9, and I expect to see some rust. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six versus Western Athletic Conference opponents. The Aggies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record.
12-16-14	Northern Arizona +14 v. St. Mary's		73-71	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Northern Arizona +14 Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for St. Mary's. The Gaels are coming off a big win over Creighton and they have another big showdown at St. John's on deck so I don't think they'll give Northern Arizona their full attention. The Gaels are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a cover. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.
12-15-14	Troy State v. Austin Peay -2.5		70-73	Win	100	22 h 0 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Austin Peay -2.5 Bottom Line:Austin Peay just played Saturday, but it is 36-25 ATS in home games when playing with 1 or no days of rest under coach Loos. The Governors will be lacking no motivation after a bad loss to Lipscomb. They are 28-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses under Loos. The Troy Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Bet Austin Peay.
12-14-14	Fordham +16 v. St. John's		53-74	Loss	-108	4 h 37 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Fordham +16 Bottom Line: Fordham will be the more motivated team Sunday afternoon as it looks to save face following last year's 104-58 loss to St. John's. Prior to that defeat, Fordham had covered 4 straight against the Red Storm while playing them to within 11 points in the previous 3. The Rams are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games while the Red Storm are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus Atlantic 10 foes. Steve Lavin's teams are a miserable 63-94 ATS as a favorite since 1997.
12-13-14	Northern Iowa v. VCU -7	Top	87-93	Loss	-103	9 h 11 m	Show
5* WISEGUY CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -7 Bottom Line: This is a bad scheduling spot for Northern Iowa, playing 2 road games in 4 days. VCU has had a week to prepare, and it has lacked no focus as it looks to pay the Panthers back for last season's upset loss in Cedar Falls. Playing against road underdogs or pickems in the 1st 10 games of the season that return all 5 starters and held their last opponent to 55 points or less has resulted in a 29-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 11.9 points. Pound VCU.
12-12-14	Texas Southern +26 v. Florida		50-75	Win	100	8 h 51 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Texas Southern +26 Bottom Line: Texas Southern has had over a week to get ready for the Gators and will also benefit from having already stepped on the floor with Indiana, Tennessee, SMU and Baylor. Texas Southern had performed well against quality competition before getting kicked at Baylor last time out, but that loss works in our favor. Road teams off a road loss where they were held to 60 points or less, provided they have a win percentage of 20% or worse on the season, has resulted in a 93-49 (65.5%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. The Gators are off a 38-point win over Yale but are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
12-11-14	DePaul v. George Washington -10		68-81	Win	100	6 h 52 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH on George Washington -10 Bottom Line: This may seem like books are asking too much of GW against a 6-1 DePaul team, but I don't think so. This is the first road trip outside Chicago this season, and that makes this a tough spot for the Blue Demons. DePaul has won 4 in a row, all by 11 points or more, but that actually plays in our favor. Playing against road dogs or pickems that have won 3 in a row by 10 points or more has resulted in a 90-47 ATS record the last 17 years, provided they average 76 or more ppg and are playing a team that allows 63 or less ppg. DePaul is yet to see a team that can get after it defensively the way GW does. Pound the Colonials.
12-10-14	Fairleigh Dickinson +18.5 v. St. John's		52-74	Loss	-112	8 h 8 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Fairleigh Dickinson +18.5 Bottom Line: Riding high off a big win at Syracuse to jump into the Top 25, St. John's won't give Fairleigh Dickinson its entire focus. Road underdogs in the 1st 10 games of the season that return 2 starters and were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half last game are 53-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Johnnies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 20-31 ATS when laying points with Lavin as head man.
12-09-14	UMKC +23.5 v. Iowa State	Top	56-73	Win	100	8 h 10 m	Show
5* WISEGUY CBB BEST BET on UMKC +23.5 Bottom Line: Off a dominant performance against Arkansas and with a big rivalry game in Iowa City on deck, Iowa State will get caught looking past a UMKC squad it demolished by 59 points last season. The Kangaroos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Iowa State is on a 10-22 ATS slide versus teams with a win percentage of 20-40%. Playing against double-digit road underdogs in the first 10 games of the season that were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, provided they return just 2 starters, has resulted in a 66-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points.
12-06-14	Wisconsin Green Bay +10.5 v. Miami (FL)	Top	68-55	Win	100	4 h 38 m	Show
5* WISEGUY CBB UNDERDOG SHOCKER on Wisc.-Green Bay +10.5 Bottom Line: This is a very dangerous game for Miami. Wisc.-GB is an experienced team, and it will be livid after getting murdered by Georgia State. The Phoenix return 4 starters from a team that defeated Virginia last season. They are 29-10 ATS when playing with 1 day of rest or none under coach Wardle and 15-6 ATS under their current coach when playing a 2nd road game in 3 days. Don't be surprised if they shock the Hurricanes.
12-05-14	Florida International +29.5 v. Louisville		57-82	Win	100	7 h 19 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB SUREFIRE on Florida International +29.5 Bottom Line: Riding high off a big win over Ohio State, motivation will be an issue for Louisville as it takes on an FIU squad it defeated by 29 last season. The Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 lined home games and just 27-40 ATS in home games in December under Pitino. The Golden Panthers are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points.
12-03-14	Villanova v. La Salle +11		84-70	Loss	-100	8 h 20 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB ODDSMAKER ERROR on La Salle +11 Bottom Line: The odds makers have missed their mark here. La Salle is 27-14 ATS all-time as a double-digit underdog under coach Giannini. Additionally, playing December double-digit dogs that are off an upset loss has resulted in a 223-141 (61.3%) ATS record since 1997.
12-03-14	Old Dominion v. George Mason +4		75-69	Loss	-110	7 h 21 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB LETDOWN GAME OF THE WEEK on George Mason +4 Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Old Dominion in its first true road game of the season following Saturday's big upset win over VCU. Old Dominion shot the lights out from 3-point range in their last game, but teams headed up by Jeff Jones are 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better since 1997. Teams headed up by Paul Hewitt are 24-11 ATS all-time as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pickem.
12-03-14	Butler v. Indiana State +7.5	Top	77-54	Loss	-105	7 h 49 m	Show
5* WISEGUY CBB UNDERDOG SHOCKER GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +7.5 Bottom Line: Indiana State is difficult to beat at home and is very difficult to defeat by a wide margin. By my count, the Sycamores have lost by fewer than this number in 41 of their last 45 home games. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 3-0 in the last 3, 5-1 in the last 6 and 10-2 in the last 12. Only 1 time during this span has the home team lost by more than 7.5 points. Pound Indiana State.
12-02-14	Nebraska-Omaha v. Kansas State -13		66-84	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BLOOD BATH on Kansas State -13 Bottom Line: K-State has lost its last 2 with the most recent being an ugly 70-47 loss to Pitt. I expect the Wildcats to come storming back at home. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss or more than 20 points. They are also 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams that average 77ppg or more under coach Weber.
12-01-14	Oral Roberts +5.5 v. Weber State		61-62	Win	100	9 h 9 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Oral Roberts +5.5 Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Oral Roberts, which still has 6 players on the roster from the team that lost to Weber State in the 2013 CIT Quarterfinals. The Wildcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a cover. Road underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .200 to .400 that are playing their 3rd game in a week and are playing another team with a losing record are 296-194 ATS since 1997.
11-30-14	Western Michigan +2.5 v. San Diego		68-66	Win	100	3 h 4 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Western Michigan +2.5 Bottom Line: Western Mich lost by 7 at San Diego Nov. 24, but I expect it to have its revenge in this neutral court rematch. The Broncos are 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, winning by an average of 9.3 points in these contests. They are also 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons in games when the line is +3 to -3, winning these contests by an average of 8.2 points.
11-29-14	George Washington +3 v. Seton Hall		54-58	Loss	-107	5 h 19 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on George Washington +3 Bottom Line: Seton Hall is 4-0 SU and ATS but has played a soft schedule to this point. It takes a big step up in competition here and will likely suffer its first loss as a result. George Washington has stepped on the floor with Virginia and will benefit from taking on such a high-caliber opponent. Seton Hall is 3-11 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games versus good teams that are outscoring opponents by 4.0 ppg or more on the season. The Pirates have lost to such teams by 5.5 points on average.
11-28-14	Monmouth +16 v. Maryland		56-61	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Monmouth +16 Bottom Line: Playing road underdogs of 10-19.5 points in the first 10 game of the season that return 2 more starters than their opponent has resulted in a 40-15 ATS record since 1997, provided they were outscored by 4.0 ppg or more last season. These teams have been underdogs of 15.0 point on average but have lost by only 12.2 points. This system illustrates the way teams that weren't very good last year are undervalued early in a new season.
11-26-14	Cleveland State +23 v. Louisville		33-45	Win	100	8 h 43 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB PUBLIC MASSACRE on Cleveland State +23 Bottom Line: This is a flat spot for Louisville. The Cardinals just defeated Savannah State by 61 points. That same Savannah State team defeated Cleveland State by 4 points 2 days earlier. With that knowledge and a little time off for Thanksgiving after this game, I don't see Louisville being focused enough to cover this number. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
11-25-14	Nebraska-Omaha v. Nebraska -15		67-80	Loss	-102	7 h 54 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BLOOD BATH on Nebraska -15 Bottom Line: Nebraska Omaha just upset Marquette on the road so there's no chance that Nebraska will be overlooking the Mavericks, especially off a loss at Rhode Island. The Cornhuskers are on a 9-0 ATS run in home games against teams with a winning record. Omaha is 1-11 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that give up 64 ppg or less and has lost to these teams by 19.4 points on average.
11-24-14	San Francisco -6.5 v. Hawaii		88-73	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BLOOD BATH on San Francisco -6.5 Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Hawaii as it is off a big upset win over Pitt and is playing away from home for the first time this season. The Dons are an impressive 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. The Dons are 10-2 ATS since 1997 following 2 straight wins of 15 points or more.
11-23-14	Florida Atlantic +15 v. Georgia		61-74	Win	100	7 h 50 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on Florida Atlantic +15 Bottom Line: Georgia is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite under coach Fox. The Bulldogs have lost these games by an average of 1.1 points. The Bulldogs are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus Conference USA.
11-22-14	New Mexico State v. UTEP -5.5		76-77	Loss	-105	11 h 41 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB BEST BET on UTEP -5.5 Bottom Line: UTEP lost both of last season's meetings with New Mexico State so it will be highly motivated here. The Miners are a phenomenal 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall, including 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. NM State hasn't defended that well in the early going, which bodes well for us six UTEP is on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams allowing opponents to shoot 45% or better from the field. The Aggies haven't been sharing the ball well either, which is significant because UTEP is on an 8-0 ATS run versus teams averaging 12 assists per game or less.
11-21-14	Boston University +30.5 v. Kentucky		65-89	Win	100	7 h 36 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB SUREFIRE on Boston +30.5 Bottom Line: After a completely dominant 32-point win over Kansas, there's no way the Wildcats will take Boston U seriously. The Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are 9-26 ATS under coach Cal after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less. The Terriers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.
11-20-14	Drexel +10 v. Miami (FL)		46-66	Loss	-110	4 h 41 m	Show
4* MAJOR CBB SUREFIRE on Drexel +10 Bottom Line: Playing against neutral court favorites or pickems that averaged 53 or less shots per game last season and are off a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-point shots has resulted in a 31-7 ATS record since 1997. Plus, this is a letdown spot for Miami following a big win at Florida.
11-18-14	Montana +17 v. Boise State		67-72	Win	100	9 h 17 m	Show
4* Major CBB ODDSMAKER ERROR on Montana +17 Bottom Line: Boise State is being overvalued at home as it so often is. The Broncos went 2-11 ATS as a home favorite or pickem last season and are on a 0-7 ATS skid at home following a game where they covered the spread. Grab the points.
11-17-14	Louisiana-Lafayette v. Tulsa -7		53-64	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
4* Major CBB Double Digit BLOOD BATH on Tulsa -7 Bottom Line: Look for Tulsa to be highly motivated after getting upset at Oral Roberts in its opener. The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Lousiana-Lafayette made easy work of an inferior opponent in its opener but is 1-9 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons. TULSA is also on a 14-5 ATS run as a favorite. Lay the points at the Golden Hurricane take this one by double digits.
11-16-14	Hampton +22 v. Syracuse		47-65	Win	100	5 h 45 m	Show
4* Major NCAAB BEST BET on Hampton +22 Bottom Line: The Orange took care of business in their opener with a 47-point win over Kennesaw State but are now being overvalued as a result. The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Grab the points as Hampton keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.
11-14-14	Minnesota +8 v. Louisville		68-81	Loss	-102	6 h 21 m	Show
4* Major CBB Opening Night MARQUEE MATCHUP (ESPN) on Minnesota +8 Bottom Line: Minnesota enters the season with tons of confidence and momentum after capturing the NIT championship. Both teams play a similar style, and Minnesota has the veteran guards, seniors Andre Hollins (13.6 points) and DeAndre Mathieu (12.0), to handle Louisville's pressure. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, and the Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten.
04-07-14	Kentucky v. Connecticut +3	Top	54-60	Win	100	10 h 12 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Championship BEST BET on Connecticut +3 Bottom Line: Connecticut continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers despite 4 consecutive outright wins as an underdog. The Huskies have been doing it with defense, holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 39.1% shooting or worse. Kentucky hasn't shown the same commitment to the defensive end as it has allowed 49.4% shooting over its last 4 games. I'll gladly take the better defensive team catching points, especially since that team has the best player on the floor in Napier. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games, including 5-0 ATS this season. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 16-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Huskies.
04-05-14	Kentucky -1 v. Wisconsin		74-73	Loss	-102	11 h 44 m	Show
4* Major Final Four SUREFIRE on Kentucky -1 Bottom Line: Kentucky has the more talented team, and John Calipari is pushing all the right buttons as he so often does in the NCAA Tournament. Final Four appearances are nothing new to coach Cal, but this is the first for Bo Ryan. The Wildcats are less experienced in terms of years played at the collegiate level, but they have plenty experience on the bench with a coach that has shown, recently, that he can win it all with a bunch of freshman. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Big Ten foes. Coach Cal is 14-4 ATS in the Big Dance at Kentucky, including 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. His teams are 9-0 ATS since 1997 after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, winning these games by an average of 10.5 points.
04-05-14	Connecticut v. Florida -6	Top	63-53	Loss	-110	31 h 55 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -6 Bottom Line: UConn handed Florida one of its 2 losses this season, but that game was played at UConn and a closer look at the numbers shows that the Huskies shouldn't have come out on top. I fully expect the Gators to have their revenge in this neutral floor battle. UConn needed a 17-foot jumper from Shabazz Napier as time expired to beat Florida despite shooting 45.8% (11 of 24) from 3-point range and holding a plus-24 advantage from 3. That's because Florida outshot the Huskies 49% to 43.4% for the game and outrebounded them 34-26. If Florida can do a better job of defending the 3-point line, it should walk away with a comfortable win, and I'm confident it will. Florida has won 30 straight since losing to UConn, and it has won 9 of its last 10 by 7 points or more, including each of its 4 NCAA tourney games by double digits. Pound Florida.
04-03-14	Yale v. Murray State -7.5	Top	57-65	Win	100	6 h 29 m	Show
5* Wiseguy CIT BEST BET on Murray State -7.5 Bottom Line: Terrible spot for Yale playing a 2nd road game in 3 days and a 4th straight game on the road overall versus a team that has been at home for the entire CIT. To make matters worse, Yale is expected to be without leading scorer and rebounder Justin Sears, who injured his wrist against VMI. Murray State is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season, 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season and 6-0 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Racers are also 7-0 ATS this season in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 turnovers or fewer per game. Pound Murray State.
04-02-14	Fresno State +1.5 v. Siena	Top	89-75	Win	100	6 h 28 m	Show
5* Wiseguy CBI Game of the Year on Fresno State +1.5 Bottom Line: Fresno State lost the first game of the series despite shooting 47.8% and holding Siena to 33.3% because it didn't take care of the basketball or the glass. I fully expect the Bulldogs to sew up these things and come out on top tonight. They are 10-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, 11-4 ATS in road games this season, 20-8 ATS as a road underdog or pickem over the last 2 seasons and 11-3 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. Pound Fresno State.
04-01-14	Minnesota v. Florida State -1	Top	64-67	Loss	-106	9 h 54 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on FSU -1 Bottom Line: I expect FSU to advance to the NIT championship by avenging an earlier loss at Minnesota. The Seminoles are on a 45-32 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss, and the Golden Gophers haven't been the same team when stepping away from their home court. They've dropped 8 of their last 10 on foreign courts while FSU has won 4 of its last 5. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games while the Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Pound the Noles.
03-30-14	Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5	Top	75-72	Loss	-106	7 h 21 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Elite 8 BEST BET on Michigan +2.5 Bottom Line: Experience is huge this time of year, and Michigan has a decisive edge in terms of experience after making a run to the championship game last season. As you might recall, Kentucky lost the first game of the NIT last season. John Beilein is one of the most underrated coaches in all of basketball. Since 1997, his teams are 18-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky has the edge inside, but so has many of the teams Michigan has played and the Wolverines keep right on winning. That's because Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert are legit. The Wolverines are great at spreading teams out and penetrating to create open three-point shots, and they shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. They've been destroying teams from deep all season, and I expect no different in this one. Michigan is 7-0 ATS under Beilein after 5 straight games with 31 or less rebounds and it has won these games by an average of 5.9 points. So clearly it has found ways to make up for its shortcoming on the glass. Pound the Wolverines.
03-30-14	Connecticut v. Michigan State -5.5		60-54	Loss	-110	5 h 41 m	Show
4* Major Elite 8 SUREFIRE on Michigan State -5.5 Bottom Line: Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in their last two games as it was tested by Harvard and Virginia. But, recent history suggests now's the time to hop on Sparty. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS after failing to cover in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, and they have won by an average of 14.1 points in this spot. Ultimately, I expect Michigan State's defense to be the difference in this one. The Spartans outdefended Virginia, and that's hard to do. They held the Cavs to 59 points on 35.1% shooting. MSU is 8-2 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game.
03-29-14	Wisconsin v. Arizona -2.5	Top	64-63	Loss	-110	30 h 54 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -2.5 Bottom Line: Wisconsin was my Sweet 16 Game of the Year, and it came through against Baylor behind a strong defensive effort. In my report for that game, I highlighted that the best defensive teams tend to make the best investments at this stage of the tournament. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, it isn't the best defensive team in this matchup. While Wisconsin's 63.8 points allowed per game is impressive, it falls considerably short of the 58.4 points per game Arizona allows. Plus, the Wildcats are the more athletic team and will have more fan support with this one being played in Anaheim. Arizona has outdefended good defensive teams since Sean Miller took over. In games played 15 games or more into the season, the Wildcats are 15-5 ATS under Miller in road/neutral court games against good defensive teams that allow 64 ppg or less. They have won these contests by an average of 8.7 points while holding the opposition to 61.6. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Big Ten opponents. Pound Arizona.
03-29-14	Dayton v. Florida -10		52-62	Push	0	27 h 15 m	Show
4* Major Elite 8 SUREFIRE on Florida -10 Bottom Line: Playing on neutral court favorites or pickems that average 67-74 ppg and are off 3 consecutive double-digit wins has resulted in a 50-15 ATS record since 1997 when they are matched up against a team that allows 67-74 ppg. Teams fitting into this scenario have won by 12.6 points on average. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. In games taking place on the road or a neutral court 15 games or more into the season, Dayton is 0-6 ATS under coach Archie Miller versus teams like Florida that average 53 shots per game or fewer. The Flyers have lost by an average of 12.8 points to these teams. It's been a nice run by Dayton, but I believe it comes to the end of the road Saturday afternoon.
03-28-14	Michigan State v. Virginia +2.5		61-59	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance BAILOUT on Virginia +2.5 Bottom Line: Michigan State is an outstanding team, but it hasn't seen a defense like Virginia's all season. The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense with 55.5 ppg allowed, and they are excellent at frustrating teams by taking the air out of the ball on offense. Virginia is 6-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus elite teams that outscore the opposition by 8.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.1 points. The Cavs are also 10-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. They have limited these teams to 55.5 points while defeating them by an average of 12.3 points. Playing against neutral court teams like Michigan State that average 74-78 ppg and have led their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half has resulted in a 66-31 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less.
03-28-14	Kentucky v. Louisville -4	Top	74-69	Loss	-110	11 h 28 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance BEST BET on Louisville -4 Bottom Line: Kentucky won 73-66 at home during the season, but the Louisville Cardinals are an impressive 37-18 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent under coach Pitino, and they have won by an average of 9.9 points in this spot. The Cards are also 9-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite of 6 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 9.9 points. The Cards are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games, and I look for them to get a little revenge against their rivals tonight. Pound Louisville.
03-27-14	San Diego State +7.5 v. Arizona		64-70	Win	100	11 h 1 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance Bailout on San Diego State +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a lot of points to be giving a San Diego State squad that can flat out defend, and the only reason it is getting them is because it lost to Arizona by 9 earlier this season. But, that game was played before Arizona's Ashley was lost for the season and before SDSU's Polee emerged. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game and 8-2 ATS this season in road/neutral court games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. They are also 9-2 ATS in road/neutral court games after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus Pac-12 opponents while the Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 versus MWC foes.
03-27-14	Baylor v. Wisconsin -3.5	Top	52-69	Win	100	8 h 22 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Wisconsin -3.5 Bottom Line: At this stage of the game, superior defensive teams tend to make the best investments. Wisconsin is the far better defensive team in this matchup. In road/neutral court contests, Wisconsin is allowing just 64.1 ppg on 42.7% shooting. Baylor is allowing 71.2 ppg on 44.9% shooting. Baylor couldn't miss against Creighton and is getting too much respect in this one as a result. I expect Wisconsin to put the clamps on defensively, especially since it didn't defend very well against Oregon. Wisconsin is now 5-0 ATS in its last 5 against non-conference foes and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 versus Big 12 opponents. The Badgers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tourney games. Pound Wisconsin.
03-27-14	Dayton v. Stanford -3		82-72	Loss	-110	8 h 37 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance BLOOD BATH on Stanford -3 Bottom Line: After back-to-back big wins over Ohio State and Syracuse, I expect Dayton to come back down to earth. Stanford's defense has been unbelievable in its first 2 tourney games. The Cardinal are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. They are 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. They are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots under Johnny Dawkins.
03-26-14	Yale +5 v. Columbia	Top	72-69	Win	100	10 h 22 m	Show
5* Wiseguy CIT Game of the Year on Yale +5 Bottom Line: After upsetting Valpo on the road, Columbia took care of business at home with a win and cover against E. Michigan. Those covers set up a great wagering spot as the Lions are 0-6 ATS in home games after successfully cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Kyle Smith. Yale won the season's first matchup by 10 at home but was then crushed 62-46 at Columbia. That loss brought a 7-game win streak to an end, and the Bulldogs couldn't regain momentum in time to seriously challenge Harvard. Yale did win at Harvard this season, and that win is a clear indication of what it is capable of. I love the Bulldogs chances of revenge here as they are 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points. Pound Yale.
03-23-14	Mercer v. Tennessee -7.5		63-83	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance BLOOD BATH on Tennessee -7.5 Bottom Line: The Mercer Bears fit into a negative situation today. Playing against NCAA tournament underdogs seeded 13-16 has resulted in a 44-16 ATS record the last 17 years when they check in with 4 straight victories or more. This system is 3-1 ATS in this year's Dance and 15-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.
03-23-14	North Carolina +2 v. Iowa State	Top	83-85	Push	0	8 h 14 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Big Dance BEST BET on North Carolina +2 Bottom Line: Huge blow for ISU losing Niang to a broken foot. Ejim received Big 12 Player of the Year, but anyone who has followed the Cyclones much at all would tell you that Niang is their X-factor. His versatility and big body make him a tough matchup almost every night. Without Niang, the Cyclones find themselves at a major disadvantage in the paint. He is, without question, their best back-to-the-basket post player. I expect Carolina to win the points in the paint battle and also the free throw battle given their superior size with McAdoo, Meeks and Johnson. The other thing I like about Carolina is that it doesn't turn the ball over. That cuts down on ISUs fast-break opportunities. Paige has better than a 2-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. The Heels are 55-28 ATS under coach Williams after a stretch of committing 14 turnovers or less in 4 straight games. Pound Carolina.
03-23-14	Kentucky +5 v. Wichita State		78-76	Win	100	5 h 28 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance SUREFIRE on Kentucky +5 Bottom Line: The Wildcats are playing their best ball of the season, and they have the horses to take Wichita State down to the wire. The Shockers haven't seen this level of talent all season. The closest they came was when they faced Tennessee and that was in mid December. The Wildcats have been performing well against higher-caliber competition. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Wichita State hangs its hat on defense, but Calipari coached teams are 24-9 ATS since 1997 in game 15 or later versus teams that hold opponents to 39% shooting or worse.
03-22-14	Oregon v. Wisconsin -5	Top	77-85	Win	100	33 h 53 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament 3rd Round Game of the Year on Wisconsin -5 Bottom Line: Playing close to home in Milwaukee, all the red in the arena will make this feel like a home game for the Badgers. Even though Wisconsin will have the crowd behind it, this isn't a team that needs any extra help. This Wisconsin team has shown it can play any way, and that makes it extremely dangerous. Oregon is more reliant on its offense because it give up 73.8 ppg. Wisconsin allows just 63.6 ppg. The Badgers have a 6-point win over #1 overall seed Florida. They also have a 10-point win at #1 seed Virginia. They've defeated Michigan State and Michigan with the Michigan win coming on the road. That's quite a resume and Oregon's doesn't stack up. Wins over UCLA and Arizona are impressive, but they came after losing to them the first time around. Those are also conference wins, and teams are very well scouted in conference play. Wisconsin's 56-50 win over Florida and 48-38 win at Virginia is more impressive than anything Oregon has done. Oregon needs to play fast and score a lot of points to be successful. Wisconsin has shown it can win that way, but it has also shown it can take the air out of the ball. I expect it to slow Oregon down, and that spells big trouble for the Ducks. Playing neutral court favorites or pickems after 2 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers has resulted in a 96-51 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that committed 8 or less turnovers last game. Teams fitting this system have won by an average of 8.4 points. Pound Wisconsin.
03-22-14	Texas +5 v. Michigan		65-79	Loss	-106	30 h 8 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance SUREFIRE on Texas +5 Bottom Line: The defending national runner-up is getting a little too much respect following an impressive performance against Wofford. The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a cover and 1-7 ATS this season after a win by 15 points or more. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus Big Ten foes. Playing any team like Texas that has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games, provided it is a non-conference matchup between major D-1 conferences, has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons.
03-22-14	Pittsburgh v. Florida -5		45-61	Win	100	25 h 3 m	Show
4* Major Big Dance SUREFIRE on Florida -5 Bottom Line: A combination of Pitt blowing out Colorado and Florida struggling to put away Albany has created an opportunity for us to get the #1 overall seed at a good number. Florida has been an outstanding investment in the Big Dance under coach Billy Donovan. It is 26-16 ATS in the Dance under his watch, including 18-8 ATS in its last 26 NCAA Tournament contests. Pitt is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tourney contests. The Panthers are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games while the Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, and they are 21-10 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent teams like Pitt that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse.
03-21-14	NC Central +9 v. Iowa State		75-93	Loss	-110	79 h 39 m	Show
4* Major Friday Big Dance Bailout on NC Central +9 Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive wins and covers to end the season, the Cyclones are being overvalued. Iowa State is 4-14 ATS in road or neutral court games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997. Playing against neutral court teams like Iowa State that have made 50% of their 3-point shots or better the last 2 games has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1997 in a game involving good free throw shooting teams (69-73%). NC Central played at Cincinnati, NC State and Wichita State this season. It defeated the Wolfpack and played a Wichita State team I believe is for real to an 11-point game. Wichita State defends far better than this Iowa State team does. Look for NC Central to keep this one close.
03-21-14	Stephen Austin +6.5 v. VCU		77-75	Win	100	77 h 39 m	Show
4* Major Friday NCAA Tournament UPSET ALERT on Stephen F. Austin +6.5 Bottom Line: This will be VCU's 3rd game in a week, and its history in this position isn't good. The Rams are 11-28 ATS when playing a 3rd game in a week under coach Smart, including 2-10 ATS the last 2 seasons. The Rams are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss, which means this team doesn't perform as well when playing without momentum and that oddsmakers inflate its lines in bounce-back spots. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and they get the call Friday evening.
03-21-14	Oklahoma State -1.5 v. Gonzaga	Top	77-85	Loss	-113	73 h 29 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance BEST BET on Oklahoma State -1.5 Bottom Line: This Gonzaga team isn't as good as last year's team, which was a big disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. It struggled against Southern in its first game, winning by 6 as a 21.5-point favorite, and then was upset by Wichita State in the next round. The Zags went 0-2 ATS in those games and are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in the Big Dance. They closed the season strong with big wins over St. Mary's and BYU, but they are 0-7 ATS in road or neutral court games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. While the Bulldogs have typically been able to advance past their first game in the tournament, they got a bad draw here. Oklahoma State is much better than a 9-seed and it will be hungry after a poor showing and quick exit in last year's NCAA Tournament. That loss was a rare exception to the rule as the Cowboys are on an 18-7 ATS run in opening tournament games. They have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound the Cowboys.
03-21-14	Eastern Kentucky v. Kansas -15		69-80	Loss	-109	72 h 25 m	Show
4* Major Friday Big Dance DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH on Kansas -15 Bottom Line: Much has been made about Kansas not deserving a No. 2 seed because of the injury to Joel Embiid, but the Jayhawks will be out to prove they are worthy. The Kansas defense was pathetic against Iowa State in its last game. It gave up 94 points on 54% shooting. That poor showing bodes well for us here as the Jayhawks are 14-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game since 1997. They have won in this spot by an average of 17.7 points.
03-20-14	Manhattan +16.5 v. Louisville		64-71	Win	100	56 h 17 m	Show
4* Major Thursday Big Dance Bailout on Manhattan +16.5 Bottom Line: The defending champion Louisville Cardinals come in riding high off 5 consecutive blowout victories and will be looking right past a Manhattan team they defeated 79-51 last season. This is not the same Manhattan team Louisville saw in the first game of the season last year. The Jaspers are deeper and more experienced and have the benefit of knowing how hard they'll have to play to have a shot. Manhattan is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons so coach Steve Masiello has been punching all the right buttons. Grab the points.
03-20-14	North Dakota State +4 v. Oklahoma		80-75	Win	100	53 h 19 m	Show
4* Major Thursday NCAA Tournament UNDERDOG SHOCKER on North Dakota State +4 Bottom Line: This experienced North Dakota State team should give Oklahoma all its wants and more, and I look for the Bison to pull off the upset. The Bison are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. Oklahoma is not a good defensive team (allows 75.9 ppg), and that spells bad news this time of year against a foreign opponent that will be playing loose with nothing to lose.
03-20-14	Delaware +14.5 v. Michigan State		78-93	Loss	-110	50 h 12 m	Show
4* Major Thursday Big Dance Oddsmaker Error on Delaware +14.5 Bottom Line: Oddsmakers are asking Michigan State to lay a few too many points. The Spartans are healthy and playing well, but Delaware has averaged 80.0 points in road/neutral court games this season. High-scoring teams make good underdogs because the backdoor is always open. Since Tom Izzo took over, fading Michigan State on a neutral floor when it is laying 12.5-15.0 points has resulted in an 8-1 ATS record. Delaware challenged itself early this season by playing 11 of its first 13 games away from home. It was a double-digit dog at Richmond, Villanova, Notre Dame and Ohio State during this stretch and went 4-0 ATS in these games while beating the spread by a combined 37 points.
03-20-14	Western Michigan v. Syracuse -12.5	Top	53-77	Win	100	49 h 48 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Syracuse -12.5 Bottom Line: Syracuse wilted down the stretch of the regular season, but I expect the Orange to be re-energized and ready to make a Final Four run. Western Michigan relies on getting to the foul line to generate offense, but Syracuse doesn't foul very much. The Orange are 8-0 ATS this season versus good foul-drawing teams like W. Michigan that attempt 25 free throws per game or more. The Orange have won these games by an average of 13.9 points. The Broncos enter off an impressive 98-77 victory over Toledo in the MAC championship, but they are 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons in road or neutral court games after a combined score of 155 points or more. They have lost by an average of 14.5 points in this spot. The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. WMU's upset win over Toledo has it in the Dance for the first time since 2004 so it's just happy to be here. Syracuse, on the other hand, has championship aspirations and will be in a foul mood after finishing the regular season poorly. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more under coach Hawkins. They are on a 19-37 ATS slide as an underdog of 10 or more points, losing these games by 16.4 points on average. Pound Syracuse.
03-19-14	Iowa -2 v. Tennessee	Top	65-78	Loss	-103	11 h 59 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Big Dance BEST BET on Iowa -2 Bottom Line: Iowa went from looking like a team that could beat anybody to looking like a team that could lose to anybody, but I'm not ready to give up on the Hawkeyes. They enter the NCAA Tournament absolutely disgusted with the way they finished the season, and we should get maximum effort from them because of it. Tennessee, on the other hand, enters feeling pretty good about the way it closed, and I don't see it playing with the same level of desperation as Iowa. The Hawkeyes should also benefit from getting away from the Big Ten. Teams they beat the first time around in conference play were getting them down the stretch. It will be to their advantage playing a team that isn't very familiar with them. Iowa is on an impressive 16-5 ATS run in non-conference games. The Hawks are 18-7 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of .600 to .800. Tennessee is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons versus excellent ball handling teams that committing 12 turnovers per game or less. The Vols are also on a 33-52 ATS slide in neutral court games and a 29-52 ATS slide in all tournament games. Pound Iowa.
03-18-14	Florida Gulf Coast v. Florida State -10.5	Top	53-58	Loss	-106	7 h 48 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NIT BEST BET on Florida State -10.5 Bottom Line: It's a letdown playing in the NIT for FGCU after all the success and national attention it received as a Cinderella in last year's Big Dance. Plus, this is not quite the same team that made a run to the Sweet 16. This year's Eagles lost 79-55 at Nebraska, 82-62 at NC State, 72-61 at Florida International and 66-53 at Mississippi State. While FSU had its ups and downs in conference play, it was one tough cookie in non-conference action. The Seminoles defeated VCU 85-67 and UMass 60-55. They played Michigan to a 2-point game and Florida to a 1-point game. FSU is 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average of 12.7 points. Pound FSU.
03-16-14	Michigan State -2.5 v. Michigan	Top	69-55	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Big 10 Championship BEST BET on Michigan State -2.5 Bottom Line: Michigan State lost both regular season matchups with the Wolverines and the defense was lacking in both as they allowed 80 and 79 points, respectively. Highly motivated by those defeats, I expect the Spartans to have their revenge with defense as the catalyst. Favorites out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent where they allowed 75 points or more has resulted in a 34-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons if their opponent is off 2 straight wins against conference foes. Pound Michigan State.
03-16-14	Kentucky +6.5 v. Florida		60-61	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
4* Major SEC Championship SUREFIRE on Kentucky +6.5 Bottom Line: Kentucky enters this contest with a ton of confidence following back-to-back double-digit victories over LSU and Georgia, and it will be highly motivated as it looks to avenge a pair of double-digit loss to the Wildcats. Teams headed up by coach Calipari are an impressive 38-17 ATS since 1997 when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Florida got a big test yesterday from Tennessee, and I expect it to get another major test today.
03-15-14	Connecticut +8 v. Louisville		61-71	Loss	-110	6 h 3 m	Show
4* Major AAC Tournament Championship on Connecticut +8 Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Huskies, who were handed an u-g-l-y 33-point loss when these teams met a week ago. The Huskies are an awesome 10-2 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss over the last 3 seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS under coach Ollie in games played away from home 15 games or more into the season versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4.0 ppg or more.
03-15-14	Tennessee +7 v. Florida		49-56	Push	0	3 h 26 m	Show
4* Major SEC Tournament SUREFIRE (ABC) on Tennessee +7 Bottom Line: Tennessee had won 3 straight against Florida before dropping both regular season matchups this season, and it will be extremely motivated as a result. The Vols are on a 30-14 ATS run when playing with double revenge. Additionally, neutral court dogs that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 91-53 ATS since 1997 if the team they are seeking revenge against is off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take Tennessee.
03-14-14	Baylor -1 v. Texas		86-69	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
4* Major Big 12 BLOOD BATH on Baylor -1 Bottom Line: I'll back Baylor, who is playing its best basketball of the season, in this double revenge spot. Texas won the season's first two matchup, but it is on the decline at 3-4 in its last 7 games. Baylor has won 5 in a row and 9 of 10 with the only blemish against Texas so it will be after some cold hard revenge. The Bears are 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Drew. Texas is 4-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Barnes.
03-14-14	LSU v. Kentucky -4.5	Top	67-85	Win	100	7 h 13 m	Show
5* Wiseguy SEC Tournament Game of the Year on Kentucky -4.5 Bottom Line: We are getting tremendous value with Kentucky because it is on a 0-5 ATS slide and failed to cover 4 times during this stretch as a double-digit favorite. I expect to see the Wildcats give more effort in this game than we've seen from them in a long time, especially on the defensive end. They will be highly motivated because of how poorly they performed down the stretch. They will also be extremely focused because they split with LSU and the win was far from impressive. The total is significant because college teams headed up by John Calipari are 10-2 ATS since 1997 in neutral court battles where the total is 145 to 149.5. His teams have won these games by an average of 10.7 points. The total is a good indicator of how odds makers see a game playing out, and a total in this range clearly favors Kentucky. Factoring in the spread, odds makers are expecting LSU to score around 70 points. The Wildcats are 12-1 in their last 13 games when holding opponents to 70 points or less. The lone loss came to Florida ans the 12 wins all came by at least 7 points. Pound Kentucky.
03-13-14	Penn State +5 v. Minnesota	Top	56-63	Loss	-110	8 h 25 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Big 10 Tournament Game of the Year on Penn State +5 Bottom Line: Penn State is happy to have another shot at Minnesota since it lost by 18 to the Golden Gophers in the regular season finale. That effort is not sitting well with the Nittany Lions since they played the Gophers to a 3-point game in the first meeting. I expect Penn State to take Minnesota right down to the wire with a chance to win this one outright. Playing against neutral floor favorites or pickems that have gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 games has resulted in a 49-15 ATS record since 1997 if they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team that has a losing record. This system is 5-0 ATS on the season. Additionally, the Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Pound Penn State.
03-13-14	Cal Poly SLO +7.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara		69-38	Win	100	5 h 52 m	Show
4* Major Big West Tournament BLOOD BATH on Cal Poly SLO +7.5 Bottom Line: Look for Cal Poly to give Santa Barbara a game this afternoon. The Mustangs won the first meeting on the road by 8 points but lost at home in their regular season finale by 16. That loss will have them extremely motivated. Santa Barbara is on a 13-26 ATS slide after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. They are on a 26-48 ATS slide after 3 or more consecutive wins. Cal Poly is 11-3 ATS under coach Joe Callero in road or neutral court games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.
03-12-14	South Carolina +3 v. Auburn		74-56	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
4* Major SEC SUREFIRE on South Carolina +3 Bottom Line: South Carolina lost by 16 at Auburn the last time these two met, but the Gamecocks are on a 15-1 ATS run in road or neutral court games when out for revenge for a double-digit road loss to an opponent. Additionally, Auburn is 1-8 ATS under coach Tony Barbee in neutral court games.
03-12-14	Boston College +2 v. Georgia Tech		70-73	Loss	-110	7 h 54 m	Show
4* Major ACC PRIMETIME PUNISHER (ESPN2) on Boston College +2 Bottom Line: Boston College had won 3 straight against Georgia Tech before dropping both regular season matchups. The Eagles played Tech to a 3-point game on the road in the most recent meeting, and I expect them to break through here. BC is on a 30-15 ATS run in road or neutral court games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Coach Donahue's teams are 22-8 ATS lifetime in road or neutral court games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Coach Gregory's Georgia Tech teams are 10-24 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. This experienced Boston College team has shown glimpses, like when it took UConn down to the wire and when it beat Syracuse. I like its chances of rising to the occasion in this motivated spot.
03-10-14	South Carolina State +7.5 v. Savannah State		47-61	Loss	-105	9 h 50 m	Show
4* Major MEAC SUREFIRE on SC State +7.5 Bottom Line: This is a vulnerable spot for Savannah State because it just defeated SC State by 19 in its last game. It won't match the intensity of the Bulldogs, who know they must put forth their best effort to come out on top. The Tigers already have this one chalked up as a win in their minds, and that puts them in dangerous territory. Savannah State is a poor 4-10 ATS in its last 14 contests that had a line. It is also just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 lined conference contests.
03-10-14	Ball State +13.5 v. Ohio	Top	64-76	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAB BEST BET on Ball State +13.5 Bottom Line: Ohio is home following back-to-back wins and covers on the road, but home hasn't been good to the Bobcats lately. They are 0-3 SU in their last 3 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. They are just 4-13 ATS in home games against conference opponents under coach Jim Christian. They are 1-12 ATS off a road win over a conference foe and 0-11 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite under Christian. This season, the Bobcats are 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game and 0-6 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off 2 straight losses against conference foes are 111-65 ATS since 1997 if their opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Road dogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenge a loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 166-105 ATS since 1997 if they are also off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more in conference play. Pound Ball State.
03-09-14	Michigan State v. Ohio State -2.5		67-69	Loss	-110	7 h 11 m	Show
4* Major Big Ten BLOOD BATH (CBS) on Ohio State -2.5 Bottom Line: Michigan State is only 19-35 ATS under coach Tom Izzo in road games when the line is +3 to -3. It is just 18-31 ATS under Izzo in road games as an underdog of 6 points or less or pickem. The Buckeyes are 87-63 ATS at home as a favorite or pickem under coach Thad Matta. They are 40-27 ATS under Matta when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Buckeyes are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
03-08-14	St Bonaventure +10.5 v. VCU	Top	67-86	Loss	-110	9 h 2 m	Show
5* Wiseguy NCAAB Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure +10.5 Bottom Line: VCU can earn a share of the A-10 title with a win and a Saint Louis loss to UMass tomorrow so it has plenty to play for. However, asking the Rams to lay double digits in this spot is asking too much. VCU just played a tough game at Richmond Thursday so fatigue will be an issue. This means its press won't be as effective. It also means that it has had only one day to prepare. This is significant because it hasn't seen the Bonnies previously this season. Plus, the Bonnies have had a week to prepare. St. Bonaventure's 4-8 road record looks bad, but consider that 7 of the losses came by 8 points or less. It played UMass to a 5-point game on the road and Saint Louis to a 6-point game on the road. The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 14-24 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points under Shaka Smart. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in an 83-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they're matched up with a team that has covered in 4 of its last 5. This system is 10-2 ATS this season. Pound St. Bonaventure.
03-08-14	Colorado v. California -4		65-66	Loss	-106	8 h 56 m	Show
4* Major Pac-12 PUNISHER on Cal -4 Bottom Line: Following 3 consecutive defeats, the Golden Bears are likely on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They can still play their way in but MUST take care of business here. I'm confident they will in this highly motivated spot. This is a very similar situation to one we saw earlier this season. Cal lost two straight road games to UCLA and USC and then lost to ASU in its return home. Incredibly motivated, it upset Arizona in its next game. The Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons in games taking place at least 15 games into the season versus teams with a win rate of 60% to 80%. They are also 6-15 ATS in Saturday road games under coach Boyle. The Golden Bears are 28-10-1 ATS in their last 39 Saturday games.
03-06-14	Southern Mississippi v. Tulane +12		68-51	Loss	-106	7 h 21 m	Show
4* Major C-USA PUNISHER on Tulane +12 Bottom Line: Home teams that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 50 points are 108-55 ATS since 1997 if they're also off a road loss of 20 points or more. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 20 points. So Miss is playing for a conference title, but Tulane has a chance to post a winning conference record and avenge the embarrassing loss in the first meeting. Grab the points as the Green Wave keep this one within the number.
03-05-14	Utah v. California -3.5		63-59	Loss	-103	12 h 25 m	Show
4* Major Pac-12 Bailout on Cal -3.5 Bottom Line: Look for Utah to suffer a letdown as it hits the highway, where it's 1-7 this season, following back-to-back big wins over ASU and Colorado. Cal is off back-to-back losses on the road so it will be happy to see its home floor where it is 12-3 on the season. The Golden Bears are on a 15-4 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, and they have won these contests by 13.0 points on average. They are also 9-1 ATS in home games under coach Montgomery after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight, and they have won these contests by an average of 15.6 points.
03-05-14	Tennessee v. Auburn +4.5	Top	82-54	Loss	-106	9 h 25 m	Show
5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +4.5 Bottom Line: Tennessee is on the bubble and needs this game, but I believe Auburn will want it just a little bit more. The Tigers have dropped 6 straight in the series and will be out for blood in their last home game of the season as a result. Home court has been huge in the series with the home team on a 13-3 ATS run. Plus, the Vols are on a 0-4 ATS slide road games versus teams that have a winning home record. Auburn is a strong 12-5 at home this season and will have a good opportunity to upset Tennessee tonight. Pound the Tigers.
03-04-14	Arizona State v. Oregon -7		78-85	Push	0	11 h 29 m	Show
4* Major Pac-12 Bailout on Oregon -7 Bottom Line: Oregon is currently on Joe Lunardi's last 4 in list, which means it can't afford a slip-up here. The Ducks know taking care of business against ASU and Arizona in their last 2 regular-season games will go a long way toward punching their ticket to the Big Dance. ASU has really struggled on the road where it is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 games with the 5 losses coming by 15.2 points. The Sun Devils are 1-7 ATS this season versus teams like Oregon that have outscored their opponents by 8.0 ppg or more. They have lost to these teams by 9.8 points on average. Oregon is 11-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They have won by 9.3 points on average in this spot.
03-03-14	Xavier v. Seton Hall +2		62-71	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
4* Major Big East BLOOD BATH on Seton Hall +2 Bottom Line: Seton Hall won the first matchup at Xavier by 8 points and is in a great spot to get the Musketeers again. Xavier is off a huge win over Creighton and has Villanova on deck. Even though this is a revenge game, the Musketeers will have a difficult time refocusing such a short time removed from their biggest win of the season. Seton Hall enters on a 3-game losing streak so I expect it to give a little extra in its last home game of the season. The Pirates are 13-5 ATS under coach Willard off 3 straight losses to conference foes. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams like Xavier that have a losing road record.
03-02-14	Purdue v. Iowa -14.5	Top	76-83	Loss	-106	4 h 2 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Big 10 Game of the Week on Iowa -14.5 Bottom Line: Following an emotionally draining home loss to Michigan, I don't see Purdue being able to hang with an Iowa team in its most motivated spot of the season. The Hawkeyes have lost three in a row and will put forth an effort on their home floor today that we haven't seen since they crushed Michigan. Home favorites or pickems off 2 or more consecutive upset losses on the road are an impressive 80-38 ATS since 1997. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. It is 11-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 ATS in its last 8 March matchups. You don't want to make a habit of going against a Fran McCaffery team in March, and you have to love the way Iowa controls the boards. There issue has been on the defensive end, and I'm confident they do something about it here. Purdue is 0-9 ATS after a game where its covered the spread this season. Pound Iowa.
03-01-14	Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago -2.5		75-72	Loss	-106	6 h 41 m	Show
4* Major MVC Game of the Week on Loyola-Chicago -2.5 Bottom Line: The Ramblers can avoid sole possession of the conference basement with a win. They can also go into the conference tourney with some much-needed momentum. Loyola has lost 5 straight, but 4 of those were on the road and the other was against Wichita State. Like Loyola, Evansville has struggled away from home. The Purple Aces are 1-11 in their last 12 road games, including 0-6 in their last 6. Evansville is off a big revenge win over Drake, which bodes well for us because it is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a cover. Loyola was pathetic from the foul line against Missouri State, shooting just 35.7%. That poor shooting effort actually plays to our advantage. The Ramblers would have played the Bears tougher had they shot their season average from the charity stripe and we are getting a better line because of it. Loyola is 6-0 ATS under coach Porter Moser after a game where it made 53% of its free throws or worse. It has won these games by an average of 5.7 points.
03-01-14	Wisc-Green Bay v. Detroit +5.5	Top	75-66	Loss	-106	6 h 42 m	Show
5* Wiseguy Horizon League Game of the Year on Detroit +5.5 Bottom Line: Tough, tough spot for Green Bay playing its second road game in three days and doesn't have much incentive having already sewed up the regular-season conference championship. Detroit is looking for some momentum prior to the league tournament, and that's not its only motivation. The Titans are off a bad home loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and will be out for revenge for a 10-point loss at Green Bay. Detroit has been extremely competitive at home in this series, winning or losing by fewer than 5.5 points in 4 straight, 7 of the last 8 and 14 of the last 16. Green Bay is on a 6-18 ATS slide when it's off 3 straight wins against conference foes. Also, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Detroit.
02-28-14	Canisius v. Rider +3		79-66	Loss	-110	10 h 54 m	Show
4* Major MAAC PUNISHER (ESPNU) on Rider +3 Bottom Line: This is the last home game of the season for Rider, and I expect it to leave it all on the court to end a 4-game home skid and to assure itself of at least a .500 record in conference play. Rider lost the first matchup at Canisius by just 3 points, and it is on a 45-25 ATS run when out for same-season revenge. The Broncs are also an awesome 14-2 ATS under coach Baggett in games when the line is +3 to -3. They have won these contests by an average of 6.3 points. Rider has won 14 of its last 16 home games against Canisius, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
02-28-14	Iona v. Manhattan -3.5	Top	77-80	Loss	-106	8 h 28 m	Show
5* Wiseguy MAAC Game of the Week on Manhattan -3.5 Bottom Line: This is a game Manhattan wants badly. The Jaspers were defeated by Iona in last season's MAAC Tournament championship game, and they were taken down by the Gaels again last month. Iona doesn't have the same level of motivation. It has already locked up the conference championship and has nothing to play for. Playing against road teams that scored 80 points or more last game in a conference win has resulted in an 80-47 ATS record since 1997 when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss. Additionally, Iona is an ultra-soft 1-11 ATS the last 3 seasons when off a road win of 10 points or more. Pound Manhattan.
02-27-14	UC-Santa Barbara v. Cal-Irvine -3.5		60-71	Win	100	11 h 1 m	Show
4* Major Big West MARQUEE MATCHUP on UC-Irvine -3.5 Bottom Line: First place is on the line in this Big West matchup, and I give the edge to the home team. While both teams will be motivated, I see the Anteaters wanting this game just a little bit more as they are off an upset loss to Northridge and will be out for revenge for a 20-point loss to Santa Barbara in the first matchup. Home court has been the difference in this series as the home team is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 3-0 in the last 3. These 8 wins have come by an average of 8.0 points.