College Football Betting -Wagering on College Football Talent
College Football Betting -Wagering on College Football Talent
As you might remember, over the years I have tracked the returning players from each college football team and showed how through a system, you can profit from having experienced players to win and cover spreads. I asked one of the members from my Rocketman Sports team to give me something unique and different I can share with you and this is what we came up with.
In order for the very best teams to play in the biggest bowls their conferences have tie-ins to; the first thing they have to do is win the conference championship. The BCS has its teams they select first from its conference champions and Conference USA, the MAC, the WAC, The Mountain and Sun Belt conference winners all have bowl games lined up for them to play in for winning the league title.
Thou coaching is very important, however, recruiting playmakers is what makes the very best teams. Having the best talent year after year will keep most any school at or near the top of the conference standings. We have devised a method that breaks down whom the most talented players are by position, with a weighted system that creates a point value within each conference. Like all-preseason rankings, this doesn’t assure who will finish where, since players we have never heard of will emerge (does Montee Ball of Wisconsin ring a bell?) and alter the dynamics of a team. And those with big reputations do not always live up to them and their teams fail accordingly.
Nevertheless, this is trustworthy guide leading into the season that could open up a few eyes and either make or save the sports bettor’s money in September and later. Key point, this does not take into consideration how a schedule will affect the outcome, just the talent aspect.
ACC -Atlantic
1) Florida State -18
2) Clemson -18
3) Maryland -11.5
4) N.C. State -7.5
5) Wake Forest – 7.5
6) Boston College -3
ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech -17
2) North Carolina -16
3) Virginia -12.5
4) Georgia Tech -9.5
5) Miami- 5.5
6) Duke -3.5
Analysis– Florida State is the betting favorite to win the ACC; nevertheless its frontline talent is not head and shoulders above the rest of the conference members. Most of Clemson’s top players are on offense and Virginia Tech’s are on the defensive side of the ball. North Carolina continues to have players that are All-ACC material or close to, but another new coach and no post-season play again has to have them slip a bit. Maryland had 25 players transfer out and coach Randy Edsall believes this group is now committed to Terrapins football. Virginia has players on offense that can be difference-makers and the level of ability at Wake Forest is as high as it’s been under head coach Jim Grobe. Tom O’Brien will maximize the abilities of what he has at N.C. State, which is likely the case also at Georgia Tech. What more than anything that stands out is how far down Miami is in quality players. The “U” these days stands for – undernourished – in standout football studs.
Big East
1) Louisville -22
2) Rutgers -21.5
3) South Florida -19.5
4) Pittsburgh -18.5
5) Connecticut -17
6) Cincinnati -10.5
7) Syracuse -10
8) Temple -2.5
Analysis– This is a transition year in the Big East, with six new members arriving next season and possibly two leaving as soon as 2013. For this campaign, the talent at the top is fairly evenly divided, with Louisville just ahead of the pack. South Florida is the oddsmakers choice to win the conference for those betting on football, yet they do have a few chasms on both sides of the ball that could be problematic. It was surprising to see Rutgers listed this high; however they do have a numbers of good (maybe not great) Big East starters that could emerge if they buy into first-year coach Kyle Flood. Pittsburgh and Connecticut both underachieved a season ago and hope to be involved in the final week of the regular season. Cincinnati is a shell of the team that went to the Orange Bowl three years ago and while Syracuse is better, coach Doug Marone is not bringing exceptional talent into upstate New York.
The Mountain
1) Boise State -18.5
2) Wyoming -18
3) Colorado State -18
4) Nevada -14.5
5) San Diego State -13.5
6) Fresno State -13.5
7) Hawaii -10
8) Air Force -6.5
9) UNLV -3.5
10) New Mexico -3
Analysis – We know, this looks like a misprint, we thought the same thing. Boise State is the best team in The Mountain, it’s just everyone does not yet know who all their new players are and exactly how they will perform with only 10 starters returning. Once we get to midseason and re-racked with existing knowledge, it will be a much different. Wyoming will be able to field a solid defensive club, with as many as five players having potential first or second team All-Mountain ability. Colorado State has RB Chris Nwoke and he will be running behind a legitimate offensive line. Nevada and Fresno State add to the strength of the conference as first year members and former recruits of Brady Hoke are coming into their own at San Diego State. Air Force will overachieve, because that is what they do in Colorado Springs. UNLV and New Mexico will think about better days.
Big 12
1) Oklahoma -25.5
2) Texas -20.5
3) Oklahoma State -12
4) West Virginia – 12
5) TCU -11
6) Kansas State -11
7) Baylor -10.5
8) Iowa State -7.5
9) Texas Tech -6
10) Kansas -2.5
Analysis – Not unexpectedly, Oklahoma and Texas are well above the crowd in the Big 12 when talking about talent. Does the talent always produce, based on recent results from both universities; one would have to say “No”. Both schools are confident they will take their usual place in college football hierarchy. Oklahoma State has come back to the pack after the loss of several top players on both sides of the pigskin. West Virginia and TCU are a bit of mystery for football bettors since both are moving up in competition level and how this all shakes out is undetermined. Baylor has 16 starters returning, just not many game-changers. What is Tommy Tuberville doing at Texas Tech? He cannot make up his mind on what offense or defense to run and the program is not near settled as he starts his third year. Charley Weis must have been really desperate to head coach again, taking over a barren Kansas football program.
WAC
1) Louisiana Tech -31
2) San Jose State -28
3) Utah State -21
4) New Mexico State -13
5) Idaho -10
6) Texas State -3
7) UT-San Antonio -1.5
Analysis– Take away Louisiana Tech and it is hard to fathom any team in the league would even be a contender in the Sun Belt Conference. Just the fact San Jose State and Utah State would be a contender in any conference tells you how weak the WAC is. Louisiana Tech has good quarterback in Colby Cameron, Utah State has two worthy candidates under center and the Spartans from San Jose have a capable defensive front and adequate players in skill positions. The only way to make money betting football this conference is paying attention closely. Who will be doing that other than beat writers?
Conference USA East
1) Southern Miss -17.5
2) Central Florida -15
3) East Carolina -10.5
4) Marshall -5.5
5) Memphis -3.5
6) UAB -1.5
Conference USA West
1) Tulsa -21
2) SMU -18
3) Houston -16.5
4) Rice -9
5) Tulane -8
6) UTEP -2.5
Analysis– The defending C-USA champs Southern Miss lost a lot of valuable talent from last year’s club and their coach, but what is coming back is still selectively choice. Maybe the best news of all for the Golden Eagles was Central Florida was ruled ineligible for postseason play, giving them a real opportunity to repeat in a water-downed Eastern Division if there new quarterback steps up. East Carolina has a few admirable players and Marshall could be a surprise squad if the offense comes around. The West is far more formidable, with three teams having a legit shot to play in the C-USA title tilt. The top trio in the West Division all lost their starting QB’s from 2011 and Houston would have the edge with an experienced David Piland ready to step in. Tulsa has the deepest pool of talent and should be able to hold off SMU, who has just three starters returning on offense and the Cougars might be doing a bit more rebuilding than reloading.
Big Ten Leaders
1) Wisconsin -20.5
2) Ohio State -19
3) Purdue -8
4) Penn State -8
5) Illinois -7.5
6) Indiana -0
Big Ten Legends
1) Michigan State -19.5
2) Michigan -15
3) Iowa -10
4) Nebraska -10
5) Northwestern -5
6) Minnesota -1
Analysis- Ohio State cannot pass Wisconsin this year, serving their suspension in Urban Meyer’s first season in Columbus. That might be the last time for awhile that will be true as Meyer brings in his players, but even if the Buckeyes could win their division, the Badgers have enough to hold them off. Purdue and Illinois are actually the only pretenders, sorry contenders, to dethrone Wisconsin and that will not happen. We were frankly stunned to see Michigan State come out ahead of Michigan in our study. While Rocketman Sports believes the Wolverines are the better overall team, the Spartans should again have a great defensive club with a boatload of playmakers. We were also caught off guard to find Nebraska lacking in top level talent in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have suffered four losses each of the last four years, signifying they are a good, not great team. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald will have a typical squad, a good bet on the road and play against material at Ryan Field.
Pac-12 South
1) USC -23.5
2) Utah -10.5
3) Colorado -6.5
4) UCLA -4.5
5) Arizona -4.5
6) Arizona State -2
Pac-12 North
1) Oregon -18
2) Stanford -18
3) Washington – 9.5
4) Washington State -9
5) California -9
6) Oregon State -7
Analysis – USC is well ahead of everyone else in the Pac-12 and arguably the one club with a real chance to break the SEC’s stranglehold on football championships. The only possible negative about the Trojans is the reduction in scholarships the last few couple of year’s leaves holes if certain positions are hit by injury. The rest of the West Division is meager in talent, leaving open the door for underdogs to bite when they face each other. Both Oregon and Stanford will be down from last season, yet either could be better than expected. Despite the numbers, California could move up since their defense will be among the finest in the conference. If QB Zach Maynard improves, the Bears become dangerous. The Washington defense is two years away from being average and the state schools from Washington and Oregon need retooling with better recruiting efforts.
SEC East
1) Georgia -13.5
2) South Carolina -12
3) Florida -10.5
4) Tennessee -8
5) Kentucky -4.5
6) Missouri -2
7) Vanderbilt -2
SEC West
1) LSU -20
2) Alabama -18.5
3) Arkansas -15.5
4) Texas A&M -9
5) Auburn -7.5
6) Mississippi State -6
7) Ole Miss – 0
Analysis – The best conference in college football will be just as unrelenting as in the past. LSU and Alabama will take their rightful place at or near the top of college football with squads oozing with NFL players. There is much to like to about Arkansas, however, since Bobby Petrino road his way out of a job (literally), one cannot help but wonder if John Smith is really an adroit fit for this program. Texas A&M is excited to see where they belong in the new grand scheme of things. The Aggies were for the most part the third-best team in Texas for over a decade (Texas and TCU ahead) and competing in the SEC will be a chore. Look for Auburn to move up these charts next season. The East is more wide open with the top three clubs all good, but sporting obvious warts. Georgia deserves the early nod because of QB Aaron Murray; nonetheless, South Carolina and Florida should have stout defenses and will be in the hunt. Tennessee will have their most talented club since 2007, but it will not be nearly enough to compete. We really do not see how Missouri fits into this league, but we think Vanderbilt might come close to .500.
MAC East
1) Ohio U. -14
2) Bowling Green -14
3) Kent State -12.5
4) Miami-O -11
5) Buffalo -10.5
6) Akron -3
7) Massachusetts -1
MAC West
1) Western Michigan -13.5
2) Northern Illinois -12
3) Toledo -10.5
4) Central Michigan -10
5) Eastern Michigan -8.5
6) Ball State -7
Analysis– Take away Akron and the MAC’s newest member UMass, the talent level is fairly evenly distributed in this conference. The top two teams in each division have a winning pedigree and should be favored on skill and knowledge of how to win at crunch time. One element we will be watching closely in the MAC is the play of underdogs in conference action. Our belief is because of the competitiveness, dogs will be covering at a higher than normal rate compared to other conferences, with many spreads at less than a touchdown. Please join us in following this, which we hope can turn into profits.
Sun Belt
1) Florida International -26.5
2) Western Kentucky -19
3) Louisiana -16.5
4) Arkansas State -13.5
5) Troy -11
6) UL-Monroe -9
7) North Texas -8
8) Middle Tenn. State -6
9) Florida Atlantic -3.5
10) South Alabama -1.5
Analysis– Florida International lost do everything receiver T.Y. Hilton, yet still has the best running game and defense in the Sun Belt. One could make the case this will be one of the best years in SBC history because of all the returning signal callers. Arkansas State has the best quarterback in Ryan Aplin and is listed as low as fourth because of the lack of defensive standouts. Louisiana will have a potent offense with Blaine Gautier at the controls, manned other variable weapons. Western Kentucky has been corralling first-rate talent since joining the Sun Belt and will enter this season with a seven-game conference winning streak. Troy is thought to be a dark horse after an off-season for them and could return to prominence.
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