Minnesota -

The best thing to happen for this game is to get the Vikings on the road so the shine is not so bright in Minneapolis where the Miracle happened last week. The Minnesota Vikings registered a thrilling 29-24 home win over the Saints in their path to their first NFC Championship game since 2009 and look to win this game and return to their home field for the Super Bowl. This game may be made up of 80% defense for the game. Minnesota finished with the number one total defense in the NFL the season, holding opponents to an average of 15.8 points. Minnesota scored an average of 24 points in the regular season, placing them 10th in the NFL but they will have difficulty getting to that number but can put up enough to win 21-17 or 14-10, 17-10 or 17-13. This game will be played on either side of midfield with few chances in the red zone. Minnesota had little problem containing the Saints strong running game and that should transfer to holding LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi under 85 yards in total. Defensive end Everson Griffen was tied for fourth in the league with a career-best 13 sacks this season. Philadelphia hasn't hosted an NFC Championship Game since the 2004 season and with a 14 year drought, their fan base can be absolutely brutal adding a ton of pressure to their own team. Case Keenum is a good quarterback and has all the tools to win this game by playing a smart game and putting this victory in the hands of the defense as the Purple People Eaters did years gone bye. 

-New England -

We know that Tom Brady cut his hand on a helmet during practice requiring 3 stitches. The cut is in the web between his thumb and index finger. He will wear two gloves on that right hand. The outer one so no one will be able to see if it starts bleeding again. Brady will do more from the shotgun than usual as the center's snap takes a toll. As for the Jags there are some reason and history on what teams can accomplish. First of all, the public has lowered the number for us giving tremendous value. Secondly, they have traveled to San Francisco, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and now to New England resulting in four games of their last five on the road with a poor performance game at home against Buffalo sandwiched in between. Third, teams that score over 40 points their previous game are 5-25 ATS the following week and they put up 45 last week. It's believed that with the disrespect that Pittsburgh showed them last week, there heart, focus and their super bowl may have all been spent winning that game and left on the gridiron. How much can one have in their tank after last week and this being a long five weeks of effort trying to prove themselves over and over is a major issue. The evidence may be in last week's passing yards allowed at 469 yards to the Steelers. The Patriots defense has allowed just 15.1 points per game since week three. Dion Lewis is up against an average rush defense as the Jags are ranked 21st. The Patriots limited Derrick Henry to an average of only 2.3 yards per carry last week and are confident they can contain Leonard Fournette leaving Blake Bortles holding the game in his hand trying to figure out what to do against what Coach Belichick has already figured out. New England averaged 28.6 points this season, good for second in the NFL and will put on a show on both sides of the ball and a major show of coaching from the sidelines and any second half adjustments needed. 

Jacksonville +

Tennessee +

Desperation effort is hard to measure. It's often overlooked or ignored. Tennessee won their last game of the season against Jacksonville and then rallied from down 21-3 and defeated Kansas City on the road. It certainly shows heart and great fundamentals. Truth be known, those two wins were equal to two playoff wins. As far as New England is concerned, the Patriots have been dealing with controversial questions all week as the Titans just prepare. The New England defense is spending the week preparing for mobile quarterback Marcus Mariota, a third-year pro who can make things happen with his legs. Mariota is also sixth in the NFL (Brady was first) in third-down passer rating. Defense and a strong running game wins playoffs games. The Titans have both. Titans’ leading rusher Derrick Henry played a key role in the win against the Chiefs, accumulating a season-high 156 rushing yards and averaged a dazzling 6.8 yards per carry. Look for Henry to see a heavy workload again this week. Remember that we are looking for a pointspread cover and line value. Not necessarily looking for an outright win of which is possible. Brady and the Patriots are very good but not that great team from the past as injuries have had their tow and Brady is 40 years old.  Delanie Walker also had a big game last week, making six catches for 74 yards. Walker will be one to watch in this one as the Patriots do have a weak pass defense. This is a large spread and confident the Titans can do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one close. The Titans defense showed great character by shutting the Chiefs out in the second half last week. Tennessee features a stifling rush defense that is only allowing 188 rushing yards per game. After 17 games of the regular season the numbers speak loud and clear. This is a pass oriented league and the Patriots pass defense is allowing an average of 251 passing yards per game, ranking them 30th in the NFL. Bottom line is that a stout defense, a strong rush, a mobile quarterback and a porous opponents defense is the recipe for the upset. 

-Philadelphia +

It seems that this may be an all time first finding the #6 seed is favored on the road against the top seed. Philadelphia became the first No. 1 seed to open as an underdog in the playoffs ever. Let's start at the top. Eagles coach Doug Pederson is incredible and don't discount his value on this two week layoff to implement a solid game plan. The only reason that Atlanta is favored (wrong team favored) is perception. The drop off from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles is not worth six points. Foles not only can get the ball downfield, he can do so very well. He's aggressive in his mindset and plays as such. He's looking to throw the ball down the field. Some guys are the dink-and-dunk kind of guys. That's not Nick. Nick Foles is aggressive and will not disappoint Eagle fans. The Falcons began this week with their two stars (QB Ryan and WR Jones) both missing practice. This follows a cross country trip from Los Angeles and a shorten week having to play Saturday. Ryan is 1-3 all-time against the Eagles in Philadelphia. This is the Falcons fourth trip in five weeks and a southern dome team moving north to play outdoors in the cold. Watch the Eagles go for the running game. They feature a dangerous duo of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount who combined for 1639 rushing yards. The Eagles own the number three ranked running game in the NFL. If Foles can hand the ball off, his amount of play is marginal at best. The Eagles are scoring an average of 28.6 points, good for third in the NFL. The Eagles defense had a spectacular season, and they feature the number one rush defense in the NFL. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 18 points, ranking them fourth in the NFL.

Georgia 

Denver -

The Chiefs rest at least a few starters which could make it tough for them on both sides of the ball. Don't look for KC quarterback Alex Smith. He's on the scout team this week. First-round draft pick Patrick Mahomes II will make his NFL debut at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. It makes sense for starting quarterback Alex Smith and many of the other regulars to get a week off before the playoffs. Denver can still play defense. Especially against their backup players. The Broncos do own the third-ranked rush defense and fourth-ranked pass defense in the NFL, so they can contain the Chiefs offense. Furthermore, Broncos running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for a combined 266 yards in his last two games, and the Chiefs will give up yards on the ground, allowing an average of 119 rushing yards per game. The Broncos had a solid game on the ground in their week eight battle against the Chiefs. The Broncos will start Paxton Lynch at quarterback since he's finally healthy. They want him with all the tools he needs to see how he plays in this final game. Defensively, the Chiefs’ backup defensive backs will be no match for the Broncos’ receivers. 

Tennessee -

Look no further than the stakes at hand. Certainly the Jaguars could win at will being they are in the top two in offense and defense. No questioning that. This is a follow the "real" money. It comes down to this. The Jags get a free roll. If they win; number 3 seed and play at home. If they lose; number 3 seed and play at home.  So it comes down to whom they choose to play. The choices are to play Tennessee by losing Sunday or play the Chargers by winning on Sunday. Nobody wants to play Philip Rivers. No one wants to have to chase down Melvin Gordon. Why play that when Marcus Mariota is playing hurt? Or DeMarco Murray is hurt? Neither will be at back to full strength in a week for the wild card game. So the Jags have the opportunity to avoid the Chargers and play the Titans in Jacksonville in the wild card game. They plan to play their starters for 20 snaps for their game day workout. This is a very situational selection and really has little to do with the play on the field. Remember, the NFL is a nasty business so look for the Titans to win. 

Washington +3

Prediction: The entire Nation will be amazed or shocked while witnessing a total destruction of Penn St by an elite PAC 12 team. The PAC 12 as a conference has been a dud this bowl season. The Big 10 is undefeated at 4-0. But this is a bad match up for Penn St. Just as USC was a bad matchup for Ohio St last night. Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman will run the Nittany Lions of the field by the third quarter. On the other hand, Penn St running back, Barkley rushed for just 107 total yards on 35 carries combined in the two games against Michigan St and Ohio St; both losses. Washington has a similar if not better defense. Tevis Bartlett and Ben Burr-Kirven will paste him over and over and then force Penn St's QB Trace McSorley to beat them with his arm. That will never happen. The Huskies will swarm to the ball in the secondary and create interceptions or overthrows. The real star will be the rushing of Myles Gaskin. Gaskin is coming off 193 yards of rushing in the Apple Cup in which he found the end zone on four occasions. The junior racked up five other triple-digit rushing outputs this year, with his best game being a 202-yard outburst against Colorado. His running sets up the pass for Washington. Jake Browning may be the best quarterback that the east coast has never watched due to west coast games with late starting times. Washington's Dante Pettis is the nation's leading punt returner in yards (20.4 per return) and touchdowns (4) and also made All Pac-12 first team as a receiver. The Huskies are great on special teams, fantastic on  offense and has the best front seven on defense in the country. That's all you need to win in a blowout. 

Memphis -3.5

This is a home game for Memphis. They should put on a performance for their fans. Sometimes a game comes down the desire. This is certainly a downgrade in opponents for Iowa St. Additionally, momentum plays a big part in these games. The Iowa State Cyclones had a decent year overall but they did not finish all that strong as they lost four of their final five games to end the regular season. It would seem to be very difficult to get motivated for a bowl game in Memphis after playing some of the best teams in the country. Their defense is good, but is it good enough to slow down this Memphis attack? For Memphis, Riley Furguson is the bomb. The long bomb. He has had a very strong season as he hit 63% of his passes for 3971 yards with 36 TDs and just nine INTs and he is going up against the 81st ranked pass defense in the nation, so he should have a great game tonight. This offense is so tough to stop as they have too many weapons on it including an exceptional ground game with Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. Memphis has racked up some very good numbers on offense this year as they come in ranked 4th in the nation in total offense (548.2 ypg), 8th in passing (339.1 ypg), 31st in rushing (201.9 ypg) and 2nd in scoring at 47.7 ppg. If Iowa St can't stop them, then they need to match them point for point. But Iowa State has been a below average offensive team this year so that's not happening. The Iowa State Cyclones had a solid early part of the year but then a change in quarterback at mid-season had them at 1-4 down the homestretch. Tabulate this: The Cyclones are 81st in the nation against the pass and the Tigers are 8th in the nation in passing. Memphis will score more than 42 points and book an easy win!!

Ohio State -7.5

Usually injuries on a college team are ignored somewhat. Most teams are not that affected. But USC has a injury that impacts their entire defensive secondary. Jack Jones (ankle) is questionable. He has 31 solo tackles and four picks and would be a big loss. The Trojans need Jones to help reel in the Buckeyes’ passing attack: his absence could swing things quite a bit. His status moved to doubtful today but will be a game time decision. He even took over as their punt return man. Ankle injuries take time. Additionally, Wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. missed practice time and running back Ronald Jones II was limited. For Ohio St, JT Barrett, who led Ohio State to the Big 10 Championship Game victory, has been fully cleared to practice in the lead up to the bowl game. About his counterpart Sam Darnold, is performance this year is just above average. I think he got caught up in the NFL hype or defensive coordinators are mapping his trends, routes and patterns. Twelve interceptions in a league not know for defense is a mockery of thinking he's a first or second top pick. (He'll most likely return to USC for another year) The Trojans average under 30 points per game in a no defense conference. They did lose to Notre Dame 49-14 if one wants to compare similar teams in the Big 10. Ohio State’s just a little more tremendous, and also a bad matchup for USC. Look for a concerted all out effort with OSU's rushing attack. USC is  average to slightly above average at stopping the run, and now they’re facing an elite foe. USC has played four games this year against elite running offenses. In those, they gave up 6.5 yards per carry. I can see Urban Meyer laughing all the way to the Cotton Game trophy presentation). This in turn will set up the pass for JT Barrett which will also have us witnessing Barrett's ability to scramble. Since this is his last game and field audition, look for him to make a few dashes downfield. It's hard to think USC can do anything about Ohio State’s run game if the Trojans don’t stick eight men in the defensive box all night. If they try that, Barrett and his receivers are going to pick on them. The Buckeyes have scored 38 points or more on nine of their 13 opponents, and all of the ones to keep them under that total are a lot better at defense than USC is. Darnold’s thrown 12 picks and fumbled 10 times, and now he’s facing a defense with 12 potential NFL players. Go Buckeyes. 

Kentucky +7.5

The first rule of thumb when betting Kentucky football. You'll always get additional pointspread value with them. Not in basketball where you pay a premium but few connect the dots with Kentucky football. When placing a bet with this game, simply stating you want the "Wildcats" will get you automatically paid if dealing with a moron since both have that same team name. Kentucky leans on their running game to generate a good portion of their offense led by Benny Snell Jr. The sophomore running back had a tremendous season, accumulating 1318 rushing yards along with 18 touchdowns and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Snell Jr. rushed for over 100 yards in four out of his last five games. Kentucky played a difficult SEC schedule and managed a 7-5 record. They know how to eat up the clock. They lost against two better teams to close out their season playing Georgia and Louisville. That only serves to gain experience for a game like this. Northwestern was rather pedestrian this season. Not great nor bad. That's the same for most of their players. Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson was inconsistent at times this season and has recorded 2809 passing yards with a 15:12 TD to INT ratio. He's improved as the season progressed. But remember that to play as a underdog is a huge difference than playing as a 7 point plus favorite. It's a completely different mindset; A different role. You're no longer the loose cannon that teams over look ahead of time. They average 29 points per game on offense. Three of the nine games that they did win were in overtime which validates no blowout wins and shows that they are able to play games score for score while keeping the outcome close to their chest. If this game goes to OT, it would be difficult to lose. I expect a Wildcat team to win and Kentucky to cover in a game that looks like 28-24. 

Virginia Tech +

Let's begin with this. Virginia Tech defends very well against immobile quarterbacks. They certainly will be tested Thursday against Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph. Clearly the momentum favors the Hokies who won their last two games including defeating their rival Virginia. On the other hand, OSU suffered two devastating losses at home to Oklahoma and Kansas St. Virginia Tech has two areas to focus. On defense, put maximum pressure on Rudolph and make him scramble. On offense it's somewhat easier. Six different Hokies have more than 200 yards on the ground this season, and those options make it difficult for opposing defensive coordinators to prepare for the up-tempo attack. One job: eat up the clock and keep OSU's passing attack on the sidelines. Their defense has been stellar this year, ranking No. 12 nationally in total defense (305.3 yards per game) and No. 17 in defensive yards per play (4.85). Virginia Tech has the talent to stop the passing attack. They went thru the ACC while giving up just 187.2 yards per game through the air. On the other side, saying Oklahoma State's defense was porous this season is an understatement. They really don't focus on defense in the Big 12. They focus on scoring. But the Hokies have the cornerbacks to stay with the receivers for the Cowboys. Additionally, the percent of red zone trips in which opponents have scored on the Hokies is the lowest in the nation( think Clemson etc ) Opponents had 24 red zone trips this year against Tech, coming away with 11 touchdowns and five field goals. On eight occasions, they scored no points. Look for Virginia Tech to control the pace and tempo of the game. This game is similar to the game OSU played against Texas. Texas did not try to match offenses and came out strong defensively and clock management which worked and limited the Cowboys to only score 13 points. Keep in mind that Virginia Tech's defense is vastly superior to that of Texas.

Houston

San Francisco +

The current longest winning streak in the NFL stands at three games. The 49ers have won three in a row and four of their last five. San Francisco is looking at the new era of no more interest in a Kirk Cousins $100M contract and a franchise quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo. He was groomed by the best, Tom Brady. The headlines belong to the 49ers field goal kicker. Robbie Gould is responsible for 52% of their team's total points. He was six for six last week and 36 for 38 on the season. San Francisco has defensive talent to stay in most games. Naturally, they would like more scoring in the red zone and that will certainly come. This game sets up to be a classic score for score battle. It's doubtful that either team will ever get anything more than a single digit lead. Last to score should win this game. Look for s 21-20 final. Frightening contest for gamblers but with San Francisco having two ways to win. I predict outright! 

Tennessee +  

The past four of five weeks, the Rams played the Vikings, Saints, Eagles and Seahawks. They have to feel the pain of those hits. These are all top rated defensive teams and it starts to take it's toll by the end of the season. Now they get to travel 2500 miles east to play in an early start game and lay 6.5 points. Few teams can survive that stretch of hard hitting contest. Tennessee does play well at home as evidenced by their 5-1 home record. It's not like the Rams "have to win" this game. L.A. is in great shape in the playoff picture, holding a two game lead over the Seahawks and can clinch the division title with one more win, or one more Seahawks loss. Not only have they played difficult defensive teams they've played at the highest level offensively. The Rams have scored 32 or more points in three straight games and don't expect that to continue. The Titans will put on their best performance of the season today and this will come down to who scores last. 

Army +

The Army Top Brass will be out in full force for today for the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX. They are NOT there to party. They are there to put in a performance worthy of Generals watching and celebrating. Defense is their Stars and Stripes. The Black Knights feature a solid defense and their pass defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to 167 rushing yards per game. Army defensive back Rhyan England (injury) is expected to suit up in this one. England has collected 30 tackles in seven games played this season. He is a difference maker on most every play as teams want to avoid him. Army ended their season with a fantastic 14-13 win against Navy to close their 2017 campaign. Look for an inspired effort from the men from West Point. 

Texas Tech +

Texas Tech defeated Texas in their final game to become bowl eligible. There's no way that they will put anything less than 100% effort into this game against South Florida. The good news for Texas Tech is their prized running back, Justin Stockton (114 attempts, 694 yards) is expected to play. Wide receiver Derrick Willes missed the last three games for disciplinary reasons and it’s unknown if he’ll be involved. The South Florida Bulls may have ended their season after suffering a disappointing loss at UCF. They had a chance to play in the AAC title game if they could beat their rivals, but UCF was able to beat them in a thrilling 49-42 game. It's very doubtful that they have much interest in playing in Birmingham, Al. There's no doubt that on paper, South Florida is a decent team. But want and desire creates effort and this is one game that the Bulls won't care about.  

The mighty have fallen. This is not a very good Temple football team. Their only claim this year is that they made a bowl game by winning their 6th game to become bowl eligible. All the hype of yesteryear stops right there. Their offense sucks. Not that it matters but the Owls have a couple of injury questions as QB Logan Marchi, WR Ventell Bryant and Isaiah Graham-Mobley are all listed as questionable. It will have no bearing anyway. They are 98th in scoring at 24ppg. Their defense has not been nearly as good as the last two years and it's below average. FIU hung 634 yards of offense against UMass in closing out their season at 8-4 in their final contest. FIU comes to this bowl game playing well and  is very motivated to win this bowl game. Temple is still not the same team that they were the last two years and they were just 3-5 in their eight games prior to that win. They have been very inconsistent, while the FIU Golden Panthers really finished the season strong winning their final two games while scoring 104 points combined in those two games. The Owls have little interest in this game. Their defense won't scare anyone and they do not score enough points to win and should not be a seven (7) point favorite

Louisiana Tech

Tampa Bay

Oakland +

The Raiders’ inability to run the ball this season has been putting a lot of pressure on quarterback Derek Carr. But look for the Raiders game plan to switch gears to help out. Lynch got only seven carries in last weekend’s 26-15 setback against AFC West rival Kansas City. Expect more rushing attempts to ease the pain. Dallas is coming off consecutive hard fought division game victories over Washington and the Giants. Those expended a lot of energy. At 7-6, the Cowboys hardly scare anyone, especially on the road. Dallas has little in terms of running the ball which puts a load on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are just an average team unsure what their playoff hopes are at this moment. The Cowboys have had 4 to 5 key players sit out almost on a weekly basis so they generally have new issues to deal with regularly. This is Zek Elliott's last game to sit. Amari Cooper is out for Oakland so his replacement has gotten all the practice this week which certainly helps. It’s going to mean that Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Holton are going to be asked to carry a much heavier workload and also beat the Cowboys secondary over the top. Laying points on the road is not easy. This spread really is unjustified as these two teams are basically equal due to each teams set of circumstances at present. If they are equal, then the Raiders should be a three point favorite. This is a oddsmakers over-lay based on Dallas winning two in a row and the Raiders huge loss at Kansas City. The Raiders can move to 7-7 and in second place with a win. Michael Crabtree is going to be the “move the chains guy,” as is Jared Cook, so realistically the biggest changes to expect will be for Carr to take more chances on deep passes in 1-on-1 situations. The key is In games when Carr has averaged over eight yards per attempt, they’ve posted a record of 5-0. The offense has to find a way to open up the field if they want to beat the Cowboys. GO DEEEEEEP!

Pittsburg +

The Steelers have lost four straight games to the Patriots. But streaks are made to end. Even if this end comes with an asterisk by it. Note that the Patriots are a bandaged squad. That their continuity has been interrupted over and over. That this is their fifth road game in six weeks late in the year where few are fresh. Maybe Roger Goddell made their schedule. For Big Ben; after his five interception performance, he's been fantastic. His offensive line has also been beyond great. Ben threw it 60 times last week and a good Baltimore defense only sacked him twice. Pittsburgh may not have a better chance to stop the Patriots from owning them in these huge meaningful games more than what's at stake for them Sunday and throughout the upcoming playoffs. Last week at Miami, New England was an unbelievably bad 0-for-11 on third downs as its offense an anemic 248 total yards; 223 through the air and a hopeless 25 on the ground. The Patriots ran the ball a mere 10 times, five by Dion Lewis and five for Rex Burkhead. The Patriots normally comeback from that occasional off night and bounce back. But Brady looks off at times with misplaced throws and interceptions that are cropping up more of late against Buffalo and Miami. The Steelers are even better defensively so at 40 years old, maybe Tom Brady is running out of bounce back performances. The facts are, and must be acknowledged, that the Patriots are not playing well right now and probably need some rest and a homestretch before the playoffs. On the other hand, the Steelers extended their winning streak to eight games when they survived a thriller against Baltimore and look to get this monkey off their back with a team vendetta to win this game. This is the game everyone’s been waiting to see, and the hot team playing at home AND getting points is the correct play. Look for Pittsburgh to come up big and make Sunday's game look easy. 

Kansas City Chiefs

The biggest question of the day is split: What has more intrigue? The home team advantage for Kansas City playing at one of the most revered venues in the NFL known as Arrowhead Stadium? Or why are the LA Chargers a one point favorite on the road at Arrowhead? Both are a mystery except to the sharpest of bettors. A special Saturday night AFC matchup for the top of the heap has all the makeup of a Chiefs win. Maybe the Chiefs should just play the game film from earlier this year where they won in LA by a score of 24-10. When the Chiefs were thought to be the Super Bowl lock at 5-0, they had Kareem Hunt running the ball which in turn set up the easy pass plays for Alex Smith. They have headed back to that game plan. He rushed for 117 yards last week which was a throwback to the first one third of the season played. He rushed for 172 yards in their first meeting. After 13 games this season, the Chargers checks in at #29 against the run. Bingo!!! Running the ball and a strong defense is the mark of a division leader. Unfortunately, defense has the Chiefs at #15 in points allowed at 22 ppg so an exceptional effort and taking advantage of their difficult home field and fans is paramount to this win. The Chiefs have the perfect formula to defeat the Chargers. Rushing the ball. Ball control. Keeping Philip Rivers on the sidelines. The Chiefs early season game plans are back. Kansas City is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the AFC West. This should continue tonight. The Chargers are just 2-6 the last eight games in this series because of the same coaching strategies by Coach Andy Reid. The line should move from KC +1 to pick to KC -1. 

-Oregon -

The Las Vegas Bowl. Oregon should tattoo Boise's defense for 40 points. If the over/under is set at 60, that's leaves us with a 20 point margin set by the oddsmakers to win and cover the pointspread. Mario Cristobal will coach the team on an interim basis. The players love this move so don't use the fact that their former head coach bolted for Florida St. Oregon QB Justin Herbert may just be the biggest difference position player in the nation. Without him, chalk up 17 points. With him, you get final scores that begin with forty and go up from there. The Boise Broncos don’t pile up the points to match the Ducks scoring right now. Oregon is 8th in the nation in rushing giving their offense perfect balance. Watch for Royce Freeman to have success while the Boise defense is tuned in to Herbert throwing to WR Dillon Mitchell and Charlie Nelson. Boise is very fortunate to be here as they got to play Fresno for the conference championship on their own blue carpet at home. They were behind 14-10 at the start of the fourth quarter. No Mountain West team is compatible with the upper tier of the PAC 12. Look for the favorite covering the spread with a 38-24 final score. 

Indianapolis 

Wait a minute. The Denver Broncos broke an 8-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the New York Jets and are now a favorite? On the road? This is the same team that during that losing streak had five losses by double digits in a row. History being made! They averaged just 13.5 points and allowed 22.3 points per game in that span. Not exactly your Elway QB era. They are lead by Trevor Siemian who has completed just 59.1 percent of his passes for 2,218 yards with 12 TDs and 13 picks this season (74.4 QB rating). Again, not your Elway QB. For the Colts, Jacoby Brissett is turing into a decent replacement that offers off season options concerning Andrew Luck. But for tonight, let's roll back the calendar and pencil in two old veterans for the home team. Frank Gore was in beast mode last week plowing for 160 yards in a huge snow storm. Another veteran that will make his presence felt is kicker Adam Vinatieri. The Colts lost to Tennessee and Pittsburgh at home by a combined seven points. This is a below average team going nowhere but neither is Denver. There seems to be something wrong with the Broncos entire organization beginning at the top. The short week home team playing Thursday night has added benefits. Finally, save yourself from saying the Broncos have a great defense. They still lost eight in a row and did beat the Jets but only after the Jets QB, Josh McCown left with a broken hand. 

Jacksonville -  

Before we get into this game, let's acknowledge that Russell Wilson is a top 3-5 ranked quarterback. He's their entire offense. The has thrown three touchdown games multiple times this season. His total rushing yardage is twice at much as their second best running back. Of 31 teams he may face, he is almost untouchable at any given time. But there is one defense he will have a problem with. The quickest, fastest defense in the entire NFL; Jacksonville's defensive front. No team has a faster step off the snap. He won't be able to win this game by himself but his offensive line is very porous and the Jags will be in his face all day long. The Seahawks have not been able to establish their running game this season and it will not happen today. Blake Bortles had a good game last week. He connected on 26 of 35 passes for 309 yards with two touchdowns against zero picks. Jag’s leading rusher Leonard Fournette needs to step it up somewhat. Since he returned the past two weeks he has not been very productive. But he is a great running back so defenses may have been keying on him. The Jags are extremely balanced with Bortles, Fournette and WR Marquise Lee. Jacksonville owns the number one ranked defense in the NFL and that will put the Jags over the top in games such as this. Seattle is down defensively in their secondary due to injuries. Let's not forget that their win against the Eagles was huge but played in Seattle. Not having Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril and with the Seahawks traveling across country to play is huge for the Jags. This game will play smoothly in favor off Jacksonville. 

Cleveland +

The Browns are running out of teams left on their schedule to beat. The Browns remain the only winless team on the season at 0-12. They do NOT want to go winless for the season. They get the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Heading into the game against Tampa Bay last week, Green Bay has lost five of their previous six. The Packers running back, Aaron Jones may be limited with a knee injury today. They beat the Bucs in OT but not because of their quarterback play. Quarterback Brett Hundley had just 84 passing yards on 13-of-22 passing with no touchdowns and a pick. For Cleveland, they've held four teams to under 20 points in their last eight games. They have an adequate defense to win this game at home. One would have to think that DeShone Kiser has improved somewhat. Maybe the return of Josh "Flash" Gordon will give him a better target now that he's had two weeks back to get player ready. Lastly, can you imagine the incredible pressure the Green Bay Packers QB Hundley is under knowing he cannot lose today with Aaron Rodger back next week? Not a good spot for him. 

Navy

Atlanta 

Cincinnati 

Arizona +

The Rams and the Cardinals are both coming off a victory last week with the Rams ending New Orleans’ long winning streak and Arizona knocking off upstart Jacksonville. Most are familiar with the Rams high-scoring offense led by Jarad Goff and it has been a constant. They did struggle last week on third down over and over and that was with New Orleans have both cornerbacks out. For Arizona, Quarterback Blaine Gabbert was more than serviceable last week against a good Jacksonville defense completing 22-of-38 passes for 241 yards, two scores, and a pick. He was only sacked once for five yards. The entire team is playing with a lot of heart and can beat any team on any given day. Placekicker Phil Dawson was the hero at the beginning and the end of the game last week hitting three field goals of 42 or more yards and with the game winner of 52 yards. His success allows the Cardinals to chip away all throughout the game as a field goal is another weapon for the Cards. Gabbert has Jaron Brown and Ricky Seals-Jones as his receivers and may rely on them much more today due to the lack of running back injuries. This looks to be anyone's game but with home field advantage and getting a touchdown in points, maybe Phil Dawson will get another chance to win it for Arizona. 

Carolina +

Revenge in a division game within the same season is something to consider. Especially after judging how the two teams are playing right now. The Panthers recorded a 35-27 road win against the Jets last week, and the Saints are coming off a rough 26-13 road loss to the Rams. The Saints recorded a 34-13 road win over the Panthers in week three. That road win was when the Panthers may have overlooked the Saints and their 0-2 start. They were playing with that desperation of having almost no shot of making the playoffs if they lost and went to 0-3. Things are much different today. Both teams are 8-2. The oddsmakers jacked up the line because New Orleans is coming home off a loss and bettors think it's impossible to lose back to back games so they lay the points. But this line is highly inflated over two "key" numbers of 3 and 4. This has a three or four point final score that either team could get. This is not a blowout type of division game by either side. It's a close to the vest kind of game with two equal quarterbacks with the Saints having home field advantage but being offset by Carolina's defense. Both teams are running the ball like there's no tomorrow. This line should have been -3 Saints at the most. For Carolina, Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart will keep Drew Brees on the sidelines eating up at least one extra Saints possession. Carolina has pulled off four straight wins and are now tied for first place with the Saints in the NFC South due to their defense and averaging 140 yards rushing the ball during that span. That is the recipe for a top ranked team. Their defense is very good at stopping the run and few would admit that they knew that the Saints now features the third-ranked running game in the NFL. It's doubtful that they would be ranked this high if they had played teams like the Panthers weekly. They have been known as a passing team for years. The Saints defense has been shaky defensively in two straight games against Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff last week in their loss to the Rams. Cam Newton hasn't been real sharp but that may change today as the Saints top two corners, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, are questionable for this game. This game is a showdown; not a shootout. In almost every facet for this game, I give every necessary edges to Carolina. Especially getting this many points. 

Georgia +

Auburn was once an afterthought for the College Football Playoff, The Tigers lost two of their first seven games–first at Clemson and then in more unceremonious fashion at LSU on Oct. 14. But then lightning struck twice. They knocked off #1 Georgia and then #1 Alabama. The main problem with this game played today for Auburn backers is that they went from a home underdog to a road favorite. That's a huge adjustment and has certainly got the attention of Georgia. Auburn limited UGA’s vaunted rushing attack to an anemic 46 yards last game. That was an anomaly as Georgia has a never ending supply of running backs. Speaking of running backs, Auburn rushed for 237 yards including an amazing 167 yards thanks to Kerryon Johnson. But hold all tickets as this game today may have his play limited, if even allowed to play. Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn said Tuesday in his weekly media conference that the junior tailback was “day-to-day” with his shoulder injury but more than insinuated that even without practicing this week, he’ll be allowed to play and start Saturday against Georgia (3 p.m., CBS) if given full medical clearance. Their training staff is trying to work a miracle in the hope of him being active for the game Saturday. But it still comes without practice. As for this game, it is difficult to win again as Georgia will have an entirely different game plan. Head coach Kirby Smart explained. “You put it in their face and you challenge people." The Bulldogs will be ready. I love the fact that the loser of the first meeting can make it up. They know they’ve got an opportunity to go out and at least erase what they did last time. That is a strong motivation. Since that loss, they defeated Kentucky and Georgia Tech by a combined scores of 80-20. The pressure is all on Auburn as they sense that a loss today would completely wipe out a season where they defeated two number one teams. HC Kirby Smart indicated that an entirely different game plan will be in place. And without practicing this week, the Dawgs defense may have a few wrinkles in it for RB Kerryon Johnson. Look for some ole fashion college football revenge. 

TCU +

TCU looks for revenge as the game that means everything unleashes a new life for them in today's battle against the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners won their first game with the Horned Frogs with a 38-20 home win in the contest back on November 11. TCU is known for as a very good defensive team. They stand 8th in the nation by allowing 15.7 points per contest. On offense, they are better than most. TCU is 28th in the FBS by piling up 34.5 points a game so on both sides of the ball they excel. Playing OU is a challenge for anybody but teams that have to match their offense point per point and score for score rarely succeed. The only way to win is to shut them down offensively. This is the team strength of TCU. They need to cause chaos for Baker Mayfield and limit him by just one less touchdown. They want to keep the game played in the 30's. OU plays zero defense so TCU's balanced attack on offense has many chances to score. Darius Anderson leads the Horned Frogs with 128 carries for 768 yards and eight scores while Kyle Hicks chips in 565 yards and four scores on 125 carries. Desmon White leads the team with 33 receptions for 362 yards plus four scores and WR John Diarse adds to the equation with QB Kenny Hill and his 215 of 323 for 2,604 yards with 19 touchdowns against five interceptions while adding 215 yards plus four scores on the ground. So add revenge, the difficulty in beating the same team twice along with a very stout defense and seven points as an underdog, the Horned Frogs have everything needed to beat Oklahoma. As long as they don't get sucked into a shootout with the scoreboard. Tight defense and chew up the clock while keeping Mayfield on the sidelines will get this win. 

Stanford 

Dallas +

Concerning the Dallas Cowboys, this is not exactly the same team that went 13-3 last year. They obviously are in a slump and now you get +2 points with Dallas playing at home against a mediocre extremely injured Redskins team. This is a huge division rivalry so throw out the stats sheets and the injury reports. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives at 5-6straight up. By now, the Cowboys have gotten used to not having Zek Elliot and the show must go on. The bettors get pointspread value in this game as the line movement is off the charts. The line has swung from Dallas -2.5 to Dallas +2. The Cowboys might be catching Washington at the perfect time. The Skins are more than skinned up. The absence of RB Chris Thompson really hurts Cousins ability to set up the pass with the run. Finally, desperation may be the theme tonight for Dallas in front of their home crowd. This is not your Troy Aikman, Randy White or Roger Staubach's team but they sure as hell will play like it against their most hated rival. 

Baltimore 

LA Rams -

It can't be an easy task to go on the road against a team that's playing great football on both sides of the ball and win your ninth consecutive game. A very rare feat indeed. I love the timing of having the Rams coming off a loss on the road and returning to the Coliseum expecting a crowd approaching the attendance numbers that USC gets. Let's take a look at some timing that the Saints have also enjoyed. Many believe that the Saints have found a defense. Compared to what their norm is, it's an easy conclusion. However, when facing an offensive team like the Redskins last game, they allowed 31 points. The numbers are further skewed when you also look at three other recent contest. New Orleans has faced some low-scoring teams as of late, as they played the Packers without Rodgers, followed by the Bears, Bucs, and Bills. Not exactly your scoring juggernaut. The Saints really don't matchup well with the Rams. The Saints will give up yards on the ground, so look for solid afternoon from Todd Gurley. Also, the Rams defend the pass well and they should at least contain Drew Brees. Overall the Rams defense has been terrific for a majority of the season and we can expect a gargantuan team effort to remain at the top and to establish confidence defeating a team headed to make the playoffs. Jared Goff, the Rams franchise 23-year old quarterback is having a breakout season, accumulating 2610 passing yards with a 16:4 TD to INT ratio. RB Todd Gurley is over 1200 combined rushing and receiving yardage giving the backfield perfect balance while also allowing Goff to hook up with Robert Woods downfield. The Saints will be marching out with a loss today.

NY Jets +

The Jets are well rested after their bye week and play Carolina coming off consecutive victories over Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Miami. Winning streaks of more than three games in a row are not your every day occurrence in the NFL. The Jets have played much better than many had planned this season. They had 14 point leads on New England and Miami and a halftime lead on Atlanta in addition to winning four games so far. The Jets are just one game out of the dismal AFC playoff race. A colossal eight teams in the four AFC divisions have teams either 5-5 or 4-6. The Carolina Panthers have been a nightmare for the sportsbooks having gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road. But many more times than not, the oddsmakers seem to get the pointspreads to adjust the second half of the season. They are much more inclined to make you pay an inflated price on a popular team with a very recognizable named quarterback as in Cam Newton. As far as the bottom feeder teams like the NY Jets, the oddsmakers anticipate one sided action on the favorite when the Jets play and as expected, we see just below 85% of the public wagering on the Panthers. But backing the Jets has a huge upside to it in the past as they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games (78%). Josh McCown and the entire team have shown they know how to get a lead. Playing at home after a bye week has them energized. Getting this win today is monumental for this young team. The game plans indicate a low scoring game thus bringing the points into play. Look for an enormous herculean effort by the J-E-T-S to get the win and cover. 

Washington -   

It's the Apple Cup in Washington today between the Cougars and the Huskies. Last season, the Huskies crushed the Cougars on the road, 45-17. We are looking for a similar outcome in today's game. Washington State's quarterback, Luke Falks, will find out what hurried passes, a heavy rush and interceptions can do to an outcome when you throw the ball more than 50 times against a top ranked team with one of the best defenses in the nation. The Huskies always play outstanding defense, allowing just 272.3 yards per game (4th), 168.4 passing yards (8th), 103.9 rushing yards (4th) and just 14.5 points per game allowed (5th). This could put Falks in offensive culture shock for the afternoon. Washington has an equally good quarterback in Jake Browning. Last week against a fairly competitive Utah team, the Huskies put up 477 total yards with no turnovers and just two penalties. Browning has 2,451 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, five rushing touchdowns and just five picks (69.1%). Washington has scored over 45 points in their last two Apple Cup games and not much will change today as Washington gets a solid win at home. 

Georgia Tech +

Is it possible Georgia Tech can screw it all up? All it will take is a little early success, a few big deep passes, and enough third down conversions to control the time of possession to make Georgia panic. Able to win two of the last three years, Georgia Tech will hardly be intimidated. Typically, Georgia Tech games revolve around the opposing team stopping the triple-option. That may explain why Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games at home. The Georgia Bulldogs had a world of trouble with Auburn’s running game a couple weeks ago. If the Yellow Jackets get going offensively, they can control the tempo of the game and give themselves a chance to pull off the upset. Each of the last four meetings have been decided by one score and the Yellow Jackets must win to become bowl eligible for the 20th time in 21 seasons. Georgia will have their own task trying to stop the option attack. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has rushed for 100 yards or more six times in 10 games and has 1,074 yards on the season. Running back KirVonte Benson also has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards on the season (1,009). The added challenge is that Georgia Tech chews up valuable time on the field clock. The Yellow Jackets are getting a lot of points for this type of game. The seventh-ranked Bulldogs, already assured of an SEC championship game appearance, won't lay down but won't risk or show much. 

Dallas +  

There's an old rule of thumb in the NFL. Actually, there are many the seasoned professionals use but for this game, a very strong one applies. It goes like this:  When you go to the betting window to bet a NFL game and betting that game makes you want to throw up, you're almost always on the right side. As for the betting, 85% are on the Eagles and 80% of the bets are on the over. Just what Vegas doesn't need. Every Joe on the favorite and the over on parlays to get bailed out on the Sunday Night game. Not happening! Dallas looked absolutely brutal last week against the Falcons. But they had a week to make adjustments and Philadelphia is coming off a bye week so anything can happen. The entire free world is aware of the Dallas problems so listing them here is unnecessary. The two keys are Sean Lee is out but he's been out  half the season. Alfred Morris will have to step up and take over Zek's job. Dak Prescott has 16 TD's against 4 INT's with 2000 yards in passing yardage. Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are strong options on offense as well as TE Jason Witten. Winning a rivalry game within this division on the road is more difficult than untangling 2000 feet of Christmas lights as some will find out soon enough. You might think it's going to be easy until you open the box. Perhaps under different circumstances, they split two meetings last season with each team prevailing at home. So the question is this; is the oddsmakers line set properly knowing that most every gambler and certainly every losing bettor is going to bet the Eagles? Is Vegas trying to be Mr Nice Guy? 

Chicago +

If there are any two teams with history that can be repeated, it's with these two. The Bears won the first meeting last season by a 17-14 score, and the Lions answered with a 20-17 win in the second meeting. Chicago does have a strong pass defense so they can create some havoc for Matthew Stafford. The winds are expected to be 21 mph with temperatures just below freezing.  Note that the Lions are an indoor team. Last week, the Lions defense was not at their best in the win over the Browns, conceding 413 total yards. The Bears are a solid cold winter day rushing team. The Lions are also on a short week as they play Thanksgiving Day against NFC North division leader, Minnesota Vikings. For the Bears, Mitchell Trubisky was solid, connecting on 21 of 35 passes for a season-high 297 yards with one touchdown against zero interceptions last game.  Along with Jeremy Howard, some key passing, solid defensive play and the Soldier Field crowd, the Lions may overlook this game and lose it outright. Reminder: the Bears did defeat the Steelers and Panthers at Soldier Field. 

Vanderbilt +

It's up to all bettors to break down the numbers and consider the opposition in getting to their stats. Their are teams that are impressive with a 4-0 win streak while averaging 500 yards per game in total offense. And then their are teams like Missouri that were 1-5 and then had a four game run against Idaho, UConn along with home victories against struggling Florida and Tennessee teams mixed in. So now the public sees four consecutive wins, a win over Tennessee costing Volunteers HC Butch Jones his job and outscoring their opponents 215-66 along the way. So we see the spread has Missouri favored by 8.5 on the road. This looks like a trap false pointspread favorite based on public perception and used by the oddsmakers. Vandy QB, Jake Shurmur is a good SEC quarterback that has thrown for 2200 yards and 21 touchdowns. He alone can keep the Commodores in this game with this generous pointspread. 

Mississippi +

Texas A&M needed a cupcake in their schedule last week to get back their confidence. So powerhouse New Mexico appeared and the Aggies are still celebrating a 55-14 blowout. Now onward to play Ole Miss on the road. A&M's defensive secondary better get on their running shoes as the Rebels are 6th in the country in passing offense with 350.5 yards per contest through the air. Ole Miss has won two consecutive games and will become bowl eligible with a victory today. Last week, Ole Miss scored on their first five drives and put the game away. Look for QB Jordan Ta’amu to lead the Rebels to a third straight win as they continue a late season surge. It seems strange that heading into week 12, Texas A&M is still unsure of their starting quarterback. They switched again last week which worked at home against New Mexico. Now turn it around and enter Ole Miss at Oxford. That a night and day difference. Not that history repeats in college football with graduations but it is worth noting the Rebels have won three straight contest and have a system that features a quarterback in the SEC to win games verses teams that employ rushing and strong defense. A&M conditioning methods also comes into question with this regime. Texas A&M Aggies are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games in November. Either they lose focus from mediocre play or the players depth chart has been compromised by poor recruiting. Their brand is not as impressive as in past years. I think the Aggies are somewhat of a weaker team and with a lack of confidence on their quarterback so they are still searching for answers. They may put up the points but only because of the weak Ole Miss defense. However, it's very doubtful that they can stop Mississippi from scoring at will. Look for an Ole Miss win with a scoreboard being lit up with many points. 

Duke +  

Stop Georgia Tech's option and you win the game. Tech had lost three of four heading into the Virginia Tech game last week and it was running the ball but an 80 yard desperation pass with second remaining to get the upset. Now the oddsmakers place the pointspread today on what people watched last week and we have created value. The Jackets are laying 7 on the road. Please!  You know what they say when you lay on the road? You might get run over. Duke started the year 4-0 but has dropped six in a row since then. They lost three straight conference games by a touchdown and fell to Army by five. All close games to the end but with lessons learned with each loss. Duke runs a unique 4-2-5 defense and their HC, David Cutcliff is very familiar with the Yellow Jackets triple option. They played to a three point game last year at Tech. KirVonte Benson is the leading back in the system with 172 carries. He's the target. The other two backs have only carried the ball 30 and 22 times. Duke will put a shadow on Benson. The Blue Devils are 27th in scoring defense as they are stingy and only allow 20 points per game. Having Georgia Tech playing this game in the role of as a favorite on the road will not work out well. They might get stung by their own Yellow Jackets. Go Devils!!

Pittsburgh 

Denver +

In his career, Tom Brady is just 3-7 in Denver – regular season and postseason combined. Brady comes to Denver on Sunday night with another opportunity to exorcise his demons in the Mile High City. Long considered “Brady’s House of Horrors,” Sports Authority Field at Mile High has indeed given the sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famer fits over the years. And he gets to lay more than a touchdown on Sunday evening. Two years ago in Week 12, Brock Osweiler  making just the second start of his NFL career – led the Broncos to victory over Brady and the Patriots on a snowy November night in Denver. Tonight, in full view of the nation, the Patriots, add WR Hogan and LB Hightower to the rododex of injured New England starters. That list is quite extensive. For the Broncos, you can bet that CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles will be running the ball quite often. It's doubtful that the combination of Osweiller to Demaryius Thomas for huge yards will be chanced. It's difficult to bet against Brady but coming off a bye week to a venue his has only won 30% of the time and having to lay more than a touchdown is never easy. One must ask, what if it really was the thin air of mile high Denver that is the main culprit for his lack of success? The home team crowd will certainly help as a 12th man tonight. 

Tampa Bay +  

A pair of inter-conference foes will square off as the New York Jets Grapple with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh McCown used to play for the Buccaneers and Ryan Fitzpatrick used the play for the Jets. It's funny how these two quarterbacks have traded teams and while McCown is playing well, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very capable journeyman and knows the Jets team as good as anybody. McCown has a QBR of 96.1 on the year, which is 10th in the league but incredibly New York has been poor on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 22nd in the league in total offense. So the big question is, will the Jets win this game with a great defensive performance? If we rely on their numbers and have history tells us their story, the Jets are not that impressive on defense either. On defense, they have been poor as they come in ranked 25th in total yards allowed (355.3 ypg), 20th against the pass (234.3 ypg) and 23rd vs the run (121.0 ypg), while allowing 23.0 ppg, which is 19th in the league. There are no free rides when it comes to betting the NFL against the Vegas numbers. The casinos don't like to get held up at the sportsbook cage and have 80% of the bettors present a (-1) betting slip on New York for that "gift" payday. There is something about this game that doesn't make sense. The Bucs offense was very good but with Winston at the helm but we have to throw out most of those numbers. Maybe their scheme on offense is set for Ryan Fitzpatrick to step in and he is able to manage a great game against his former team. 

-Miami, FL +. 

Look for Miami's defense to play a huge role today in their match up against Notre Dame. Last week the Hurricanes took down Virginia Tech in a convincing 28-10 decision. Their defense limited the opponent to just 299 total yards and 3-of-14 on third down conversions. Many gamblers backed Virginia Tech and were somewhat surprised to see them really play an exceptional game; especially with the Irish as the look ahead game. Against the Fighting Irish, the Hurricanes should throw a very similar game plan together as they did against Virginia Tech. Miami is 2nd in creating turnovers in the nation and play very opportunistic which with the home crowd will cause havoc for Notre Dame. For Miami, quarterback Malik Rosier has been great this season with 2,264 passing yards and a ratio of 19 touchdowns to 7 picks. Notre Dame is still platooning duel quarterbacks and so far it has worked but may be more difficult playing on the road. Laying points on the road is not an easy thing to do and playing a nighttime featured game at the Hurricanes venue is troublesome for even a top 5 team. Miami at number 7, can throw the playoff ratings into a tailspin with a victory Saturday evening. Look for Miami's front seven on defense get into the Irish backfield and take control of this game. 

Mississippi State +

This is an insult to Mississippi St. First of all, who has Alabama played? Where have they dominated? How do you give 14 points up on the road? Alabama is 2-5 ATS in its last seven against winning opponents and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on grass. But the main point is that Bama has all kind of injuries on defense. On offense last week, Alabama generated a total of 299 yards against LSU. That lack of offensive firepower will not cover double digit spreads. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with winning road records. They won't allow a lot of points so the point spread really impacts this contest in favor of Mississippi St. Crimson has lost all three of their linebackers and that should open up some productive lanes for the Bulldogs to move the football. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald can pass and run. He ran for 135 yards and two scores last week so State's backfield is hard to defend. Bama' QB Jalen Hurts is pedestrian and won't scare too many defensive sides. Not sure if Mississippi St gets the upset but covering the point spread is there.

------

Auburn +.   

The Auburn Tigers have bounced back from their second loss of the season with victories over Arkansas and Texas A&M and have moved into the Top 10. This week marks the first time that both teams have been ranked in the top 10 going into the showdown since 2004. The Auburn home venue will be the most difficult place that Georgia plays. The match up will have Auburn throwing the ball while Georgia goes old school rushing with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. For the Tigers, Quarterback Jarrett Stidham will look for Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton with Slayton likely to be the hookup that knocks number one Georgia from their top spot in the polls. This is just another SEC game where they beat up on each other and not that big of a home team upset win for Auburn. Georgia won 13-7 last year and this year it turns around in Auburns favor. 

UNLV

The BYU Cougars offense has struggled all season and are only averaging 15 points per game. It may even go downhill from there as their quarterback Tanner Mangum is out and will likely be missing their second-leading rusher Ula Tolutau in this contest. UNLV features a tremendous running game that is averaging 252 rushing yards per game led by Lexington Thomas who has tallied 1063 rushing yards on the season and will be up against a mediocre BYU rush defense. Hopefully QB Johnny Stanton gets the start in place of QB Armani Rogers. Since replacing Rogers, Stanton has registered 1100 passing yards in just a few games. They'll likely go with both but the freshman is much better. The Rebels offense has been solid, averaging 30 points led by their 13th ranked running game. The Cougars defense is adequate but their offense is basically non-existent. The BYU Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. BYU's top rusher is only averaging 43 yards per game. BYU is having a disastrous season with several tough injuries that have hampered their play and will be glad only three games remain. Look for UNLV to finally beat a "named" team. This is a huge rivalry with plenty of history between both schools

Millionaires---Arizona 

Carson Palmer is out and Drew Stanton is in as quarterback for Arizona. Don't be worried if he's not a household name to yourself. He's 9-5 as a Cardinals starter and is off a road win last week. For Seattle, the injury report is on a platform that says to scroll. There are injury after injury that can impact the duration of the quality of play for the Seahawks. Their defense has holes in it. Their offense is one dimensional. They beat San Francisco and Houston by just three points. They are off a loss last week to Washington. If they lose tonight outright, they'll have the same record as Arizona. For the Cards, they'll give the ball to Adrian Peterson 35 times, chew up the yards and eat up the clock. Seattle is 15th against the run so AP will get his numbers. QB Stanton to WR Fitzgerald will get some surprise yardage against a depleted secondary and Jermaine Gresham will do damage from his tight end spot. The Seahawks Earl Thomas is missing from his safety position and that is really bad news. Seattle's offense line is shattered as rushed and hurried passes caused Russell Wilson two interceptions last Sunday. Let's look for a low scoring boring Thursday night game as the coaches will play this conference game very conservative and take few chances. I like Arizona to easily cover and has as good a chance to win outright as do the Seahawks. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series.

Eastern Michigan 

Miami +

How many times does a team have to be reminded that they lost their last game 40-0?  I bet Miami head coach Adam Gase told them so many times they're sick of hearing it. He was so mad, he traded their star complainer to the Eagles to show he's not messing around and no job is safe. If there was ever a game that says "outright win", it's  this game. Even Jay Cutler got healed over night and will start. The Raiders are in a massive question and answer period of their own. And the return of Marshawn Lynch is not their answer. The veteran is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry since coming out of retirement to join Oakland this season. Let's not forget that Miami is 4-3 even after that 40-0 meltdown. The Raiders Coach Del Rio, maybe a bit too nice to rework the Raiders confused season long attitude that they were a "shoe-in" for the Super Bowl. The Oakland Raiders have lost five of their last six games so let's not forget that. Chalk up that 40-0 beating in London to a gloom and doom vacation trip and watch the Miami defense to stop the entire Raiders offense while a bland Dolphins offense will have just enough to match up to a below average Raiders defense. Make an additional Money Line bet for added profit. 

New York Giants +  

If there ever was a game to get up for in front of your home fans, it's the arrival of the up and coming LA Rams. Knock them off and save some face. A win here would surely throw a wrench into the overall power ratings in the NFL. Few will see this one coming as the Giants offense comes into this game better prepared. It's really about the numbers game. Both teams are coming off their bye week allowing injuries to heal and replacements to adapt. The injury-ravaged New York Giants are hoping their bye week allowed for a few key players to heal up in time for this home matchup against the Rams today. Eli Manning has not played bad, especially considering the injuries, recording 1600 yards with a 10:5 TD to INT ratio. Sterling Shepard should be back for this one to help WR Evan Ingram and RB Orleans Darkwa. The Giants have had enough time to acclimate their offense since Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall got their season ending injuries. The strength of their team increases each week. The public and team numbers are still reflecting their game stats that followed those two key injuries which plummeted heavily, especially in the public perception category. Manning will have two wide receivers and a running game along with some players back to upset the Rams. Giants win as the last team to score. 

Oklahomas State -  

It's Bedlam in the Sooner State as the two Oklahoma schools meet with Oklahoma State setting up as a favorite in their battle with Oklahoma. The Cowboys are 4-1 in the Big 12, tied with Oklahoma, TCU and Iowa State for the top spot in the conference. The Cowboys enter this contest ranked 2nd in the FBS with 370.6 yards per game through the air and 35th with 198.6 yards a contest on the ground. That's a lot of offense for the Sooners defense to handle. QB Mason Rudolph is having an incredible season. He has completed 181 of 276 passes for 2,866 yards plus 22 scores against five picks while adding 62 yards and seven scores on the ground. WR James Washington is his go to target and is sensational. Baker Mayfield leads the Sooners third ranked offense and has them scoring 42 ppg. The Cowboys have the better defense which is somewhat underrated. Boone Pickens Stadium will be the most challenging place for the Sooners to try to win on the road this entire season. Oklahoma State gets revenge and their win today. 

NC State +

Clemson may not have recovered after that loss to Syracuse a few weeks ago. The wind may have been knocked out of their national title sails. Clemson got the win over Georgia Tech but they sputtered a bit offensively after having two weeks to prepare after the loss to Syracuse. NC State was shut down by Notre Dame but they are still unbeaten in conference play. This one is a showdown for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and the inside track to a berth in the ACC Championship Game. NC State Wolfpack is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games and are a very live underdog. 

Michigan State +  

Penn St is coming off their biggest game having lost a heartbreaker last week at Ohio St. It had to be the hardest week ever trying to focus and regroup for today's game with Michigan State. The Spartans are 4-1 in the Big Ten tied with Penn State in the East Division, behind 5-0 Ohio State. Penn State struggled with Iowa on the road, winning by just two. Iowa has an excellent defense like Michigan State. Defense and the home crowd will see this victory for Michigan St. MSU is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games which is a very difficult venue in which to play. Spartans QB Bran Lewerke, is the real deal and continues to set records as he hooks up with freshman sensation Cody White. Michigan St is allowing 193 yards per game, while giving up a minuscule 89.9 on the ground. This is a perfect game for Michigan St to easily win. The pointspread seems to be over inflated in favor of the Spartans. 

Utah

-Detroit + 

The Steelers have won two games in a row at the expense of Kansas City and Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Detroit is coming in off a bye-week. Ben Roethlisberger’s is 2-0 since his five interception blowup game but the veteran signal-caller has just three touchdown passes while only getting picked off once in those two games. Three TD's in two games shouldn't add up to overconfidence from any Steelers backers. The problem with Pittsburgh comes from within. On the field, the offense has not been defined well enough. Is it Ben throwing short pass or longer ones to Brown? Did LaVon Bell screw up things with his holdout? He has finally rushed from 3.6 yards per carry to 4.7 ypc over the last two games. To go on the road as a favorite, your offense needs to be fine tuned. It's far to early to declare that any particular team is facing a must win game. The Lions are 4-2 and with the Vikings playing in London, the Bears at the Saints as a huge dog and the Packers on a bye with a quarterback problem, this is often how teams with less talent move upward in their conference standings. The Lions have the defense to cause just enough turnovers to win this game. They put forth an incredible effort late in the Saints game two weeks ago. I like the slight desperation that the Lions bring to the home turf. The Steelers are not in that have to win boat as they are 5-2 in the AFC North, comfortably ahead of the other three teams. Another potential problem may lay inside of the Steelers locker room. Coach Tomlin is in the news with far too many internal team locker rooms personalities to deal with. I get the feeling that this team while 5-2, is not that dominating Iron Curtain of Steelers Nation and at the first sign of turmoil, players will be playing the blame game. Look for a huge performance from that Lions gunslinger, Matt Stafford and a hard fought victory. 

Washington 

Iowa State +   

The TCU Horned Frogs are rolling right now, but so are the Cyclones and the winner of this game will have the upper-hand in the Big 12 race. TCU seems to get all the love of from the media with their high scoring offense. Not that this has a large baring today but looking at common opponents shows they both played Kansas. TCU won 43-0 while Iowa St won 45-0. The Cyclones have been playing very well on defense so far and can limit TCU's scoring to keep it reasonably close to their own. QB Kenny Hill has had a strong year for the Frogs as he has hit 70.2% of his passes for 1728 yards with 15 TDs and just three INTs on the year. It will not be that easy in this one against a very underrated Iowa State defense along with the crazy Iowa St home frenzied fans. They have now allowed just 15.3 ppg in league play. Last week they held high scoring Texas Tech to 13 points. For the Cyclones, David Montgomery has a strong game on the ground and will chew up yardage and the clock. Having TCU lay 6 points on the road is a blessing for the home underdog as this is a very live dog capable of shutting TCU and their undefeated season down

Northwestern +

The Michigan St Spartans are one of three teams in the Big Ten East with a perfect 4-0 conference mark along with Ohio State and Penn State. At today's end, the Spartans will have that blemish on their won/loss record. Michigan St cannot score points. Michigan State is 108th in the nation in scoring with 22 points per contest. They've only made 19 touchdowns in seven games so far. Northwestern can pass and throw the ball and a few scores are all that are needed to beat MSU. With Thorson and Jackson back from last season’s team, the Wildcats should be able to make the two critical plays necessary for the win. QB Thorson is 158 of 263 passing for 1,688 yards with eight touchdowns for Northwestern. He's a duel threat and has scored  four times running the ball. This will be a boring defensive battle with NW winning by 6 to 9 points.

-Baltimore 

LA Chargers + 

The Chargers have lost four games but now they are on a two game winning streak having defeated the Giants and the Raiders. Their defense played great against Oakland. Oakland scored only six points in the second half and the Chargers put up a 10-spot in the fourth quarter to seal the comeback. Philip Rivers receives total respect on the gridiron as he regularly puts up enough points to win. They now have a defense that can match his efforts. The Broncos are coming off a dreadful setback against the previously winless Giants. Last week's Broncos loss was the single biggest win for the Vegas Sportsbooks this season. One gambler, lost $770,000 and is still trying to figure it out. When he sees that 90% of the public was on Denver, it may occur to him. Let's take advantage of some "key" Bronco injuries. Wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Isaiah McKenzie suffered right ankle sprains against New York and both will be sidelined from this week’s trip to Los Angeles. With the public seeing that the visitors are 6-0 ATS at StubHub, many will bet on that stat and the fact that Denver is coming off a loss. Meanwhile, Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian–who left the recent loss for a brief time due to a shoulder injury–has also been cleared to play. Denver is coming in weak and the Chargers have all cylinders working at this time. 

Chicago +

The Bears have to feel good coming home to play today's contest. The Panthers come into this game off of a 28-23 home loss to the Eagles, while the Bears are off a 27-24 OT win over the Ravens on the road. What's not to like? Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky , the second pick out of North Carolina, is a quarterback that his team can rally around. The Bears have a long way to go to get to the playoffs, but they have a good defense and a QB to build around, so they are on the right path. The Black and Blue Bears will win as they usually do. A huge defensive effort. On defense, they have been very solid so far as they come in ranked 6th in total yards allowed (302.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (198.3 ypg). Just enough to get the outright win. Oh, let's not overlook one of the best running backs in the league; Jordan Howard. He'll get his yards AND take the pressure off his rookie QB. 

Baylor +

West Virginia enters this game ranked #23 after a convincing 46-35 home win over Texas Tech. Now it's off to Waco, Texas to lay double digits at Baylor. A very daunting task. The Mountaineers defense had some trouble last week against the Texas Tech offense last week, allowing 513 total yards. The Mountaineers defense is below average, especially when trying to stop to run. Last week against Oklahoma St, Baylor had success on the ground, rushing for a team total of 219 yards, with leading rusher John Lovett rushing for 62 yards. The freshman back is off to a promising start to his career, collecting 383 rushing yards on the season. The running game will set a slow pace tempo and eat up the clock. This is not the type of game that West Virginia hasn't focused on after their big come from behind win against Texas Tech last week. 

Indiana +  

Something doesn't mesh for the normal look at the game when you observe and compare laying 7.5 to 8 points and combined with the total is set low at 45.5. After-all, Indiana did put up 20 points last week against Michigan. And Minnesota hung 27 points on Michigan St last week. This will be a competitive game throughout. Indiana took Michigan St to overtime last year scoring 21. This will be a similar type contest. This Indiana team is a live dog so no surprise if they get the outright win. One reason for the added pointspread value is that the Spartans are 4-2 ATS and the oddsmakers jacked up the line for this Michigan State home game. There's no free lunches for the public. And the public has zero interest backing Indiana. 

New Mexico

Pittsburg +  

Ben R is not done contrary to what he was whining about after last weeks performance against Jacksonville. I guarantee that last week will not be part of his legacy. What he really needs after doing everything in his 13 year old career are new challenges. His season might be just above average but as a highly seasoned veteran, he would like nothing better than to blowout the undefeated Chiefs in front of the Arrowhead crowd. Now that's a challenge for a champion. Look for Antonio Brown and Ben to hook up while their awesome defense holds the Chiefs to a bad memory. Ben R has gone 5-1 and has thrown for 1433 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs while posting a 118.7 QBR in his career against the Chiefs. Steelers roll and it won't be a shock.

Minnesota + 

Minnesota edged the Packers 17-14 at home in the first meeting last season and have the perfect defensive secondary to make Aaron Rodgers somewhat ineffective. While we remember that Green Bay grabbed a win against the Cowboys last week, the Packers defense did not play well in the win against Dallas, allowing 408 total yards, and the Cowboys were able to go 7 for 12 on third downs. The Vikings defense is awesome and will be there all game to play. The Vikings defense is a force, allowing 17 or fewer points in three straight games and defense wins these vastly important games. Furthermore, the Vikings running game was terrific last week led by Jerick McKinnon, and the Packers have shown they will give up yards on the ground, allowing an average of 121 rushing yards per game. Case Keenum may be a backup QB but the important roles are the Vikings defense and their run game. If put to the test, his touchdown to interception ratio is better than the ratio of the overall Packers defense verses the opponents rushing. This is more than a "live" dog, this is your outright winner. 

Minnesota 

It's a difficult thing to do as Michigan St upset Michigan in the Big House last week and now has to travel and play at Minnesota. This is after celebrating all week long. Coaches love wins but they hate that the following week's focus is on that upset and not on their next game. Points and yards should be at a premium in this game as both teams are very strong on the defensive side of the ball. The Gophers are allowing just 17 points per game and in a defensive slugfest, and getting more than a field goal, taking the points is the play. The Spartans do not score enough points to pull this off. This is a scheduling nightmare for MSU. 

LSU 

Two weeks ago, LSU did the unthinkable. They lost to Troy, at home, on their homecoming night and after paying Troy $1m to come the Baton Rouge to play them. They redeemed themselves on the road last week and knocked off Florida on the in the Swamp.  But they still owe their fans one big time win. It had better come tonight. Losing two in a row is not going to happen with home games. It will be against Auburn tonight. QB Danny Etling  has completed 71 of 118 passes for 1,046 yards with six touchdowns and one interception plus 103 rushing yards to lead LSU. Their defense is only surrendering 18 points per game. The Tigers look to make it two straight conference wins in this one as they deal with Auburn. Combine the low scoring with the points spread and this should be the easy cover even tho we will claim in advance a shocker upset win. 

Carolina

Houston +

The Chiefs moved to 4-0 overall and also remained perfect against the spread when they won Monday night vs Washington in a miracle final four seconds of play. Today, Houston is on high alert for the entire contest and their defense will get in the final word. Offensively, Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson is making things look easy despite being a rookie quarterback in the NFL. Can we say five touchdowns last week against the Titans? The Chiefs new kicker Harrison Butker gets tested on the road and we're seeing more and more field goals missed. The conservative nature of Coach Reid and QB Alex Smith may draw him into this contest at pressure peaked time. 

Dallas -

There's probably someone out there that handicaps like the following: The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses this season and most recently fell to the Rams this past weekend so therefore a win is due today. Well let's hope he's right. The Green Bay Packers will have enjoyed a long week by the time they visit the Cowboys having played a week ago Thursday. Cowboys’ defensive lineman David Irving is returning this week after serving a four-game suspension. He is their most disruptive defensive player. In a 30-16 win over the Packers last October, Irving forced three fumbles and had a sack in just 19 snaps. He's back!! It remains to be seen if Packers RB Ty Montgomery's ribs are broken or if he can withstand the battering of the Cowboys front line if he can play. Either way, it's rare to see a quality Dallas team lose back to back games at home. This game is a statesman game for the league as they unlock the beast.

Cleveland 

The Browns get in the win column today with a convincing win for the Dawg Pound. Cleveland will seek their first win of the season when they host the New York Jets in an AFC clash Sunday afternoon. Let's not get too excited that the Jets won two in a row by defeating Miami and Jacksonville. Both played at home. Playing on the road is not as easy to pick up a win. Look for Duke Johnson Jr to be used more in this game while taking off some pressure of Browns QB DeShone Kizer and RB Isaiah Crowell. The Browns defense is up against a team they can handle as this should be a low scoring affair. 

LSU +   

You can bet the LSU coaches threw away any tape of last weeks game. The LSU Tigers are off a shocking home loss to Troy by a score of 24-21. All they can do is put on their biggest, boldest and best performance of their season and knock off Florida to set last week straight and extract revenge from last year. Maybe they were looking ahead to this week and overlooked Troy. You can bet this team will come to play their hearts out. Meanwhile, the Gators are off a 38-24 win over Vanderbilt here at home. The Gators won in Baton Rouge last year by a score of 16-10. LSU may be looking for a new coach at the end of the year, especially if the Tigers don’t turn things around soon. Luckily for LSU, the Gators have been very poor on offense so far as they come in ranked 98th in the nation. On defense, they have been rather average as they come in ranked 67th in total yards allowed so the Tigers have solid opportunities on both sides of the ball to shut down the Gators. Laying more than 4 points for Florida is a recipe for disaster.

Florida State +

An underdog at home? This is a makeup game due to effects of Hurricane Irma which caused it to be postponed. Florida St is an underdog at home and not ranked for the first time in six years. The key to this win is to completely shut down Miami with defense. On defense, FSU is giving up just 333.7 yards per game (33rd) and 126.3 rushing yards per game (36th). They are coming off a 26-19 win over Wake Forest on the road while looking good defensively. The Hurricanes have looked impressive since taking a two-week break due to the hurricane. They destroyed Toledo on Sept. 23 (52-30) and beat up on Duke last week, 31-6 on the road. Not exactly known as top tier football programs. Offensively, the Noles need to establish a strong running game. Junior running back Jacques Patrick (6-3, 231) is a big back and will get the workload. His job is to wear down the defense while winning the time of possession battle and keeping the Hurricane's offense of the field. Miami is allowing 135 rushing yards per game. Florida St gets a win here as neither team puts up 24 points.

Tampa Bay

Millionaires---Washington 

New York Jets 

Last Sunday had to be a huge surprise for many bettors. The Jets are coming off an upset win at home over Miami, 20-6, while Jacksonville totally destroyed Baltimore in London, 44-7. We did not play the early game in London but we did bet the Jets. The Jets showed up in a big way against Miami and the underdog risk takers were rewarded. Blake Bortles can be tamed. He throws to his tight end Marcedes Lewis to many times and has trouble stretching the field. The Jets passing defense is allowing just over 200ypg which is good in today's NFL. The thought here is that the Jags have lost their cohesiveness. They win game one on the road. They lose game two at home. Then they have last weeks blowout in London and now are on the road again while having to play a very unfamiliar role as a road favorite laying and then winning by more than three  three points. It's doubtful they even win, much less winning by margin. 

Houston 

You can bet Houston will not play like they did at home in their opening game this year against the Jags. That was a total embarrassment. This is the matchup they need. Houston has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and is 5-1-1 ATS last 7 at home. QB DeShaun Watson looks like the real deal. He was totally poised on the road last week against New England. Watson spread the ball around, hitting DeAndre Hopkins seven times for 76 yards and Griffin for five receptions for 61 yards. Watson is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 528 yards with three TDs. But look for the main reason that Houston will win this game. They will stick it to DeMarco Murray and an injured Derrick Henry or anyone else that dares to run the ball at the Texans. That in itself will cause much havoc on Marcus Marietta's passing game. Match, Set, Point; game over!!

Texas Tech + 10.5

Look for a high scoring affair in this battle. It looks like more Oklahoma St "leaks" will be exposed today. Oklahoma St was shocked at home by TCU last week and now we watch the Cowboys slipped to No. 15 from No. 6. Texas Tech improved to 3-0 with a 27-24 win at Houston. Their biggest test will take place on Saturday from Lubbock, Tx. Last year, the Cowboys edged the Red Raiders at home, 45-44 in a shootout and look for the repeat. Last week, TT quarterback Nic Shimonek had an efficient game, going 29-of-45 for 321 yards with two TDs and one pick. Running back Justin Stockton had an excellent all-around game for the Red Raiders with 10 rushes for 102 yards and two catches for 22 yards, including a 20-yard touchdown reception. Texas Tech produced 521 yards and just one turnover. This team is the real deal. Also and more importantly, the win over Houston snapped the Cougars 16 game home winning streak. Playing today at home is just what is needed for Texas Tech to keep this game very close and possibly pick up a win over Oklahoma St. 

Michigan State -4

Let's face it. Iowa is not a road warrior. This game will not be that close. The Michigan State Spartans will host the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten battle.  The Hawkeyes lost a heartbreaker 21-19 to Penn State last week, and the Spartans are coming off a 38-18 home loss to Notre Dame. The damage was done last Saturday in Iowa's home game and now these young college kids have to regroup. The Hawkeyes were one play away from a 4-0 start, however Penn State scored the game-winning touchdown on fourth and goal as time expired to take it 21-19. There's no air left in Iowa's wind so to speak. Michigan State was sloppy against Notre Dame last week. They turned the ball over three times in the first half and surrendered 28 points. So much for that game as that killed the Spartans. MSU has a good QB that can throw the ball. The Spartans now feature three players with at least 100 receiving yards through three games. Lay the small number as Michigan St rolls.