Two teams going in opposite directions, the Cardinals have won nine of their past 11 games while the Brewers have lost six of their past eight. Adam Wainwright starts for St. Louis tonight and while he's not the pitcher he used to be when younger, he's been terrific at Busch Stadium with 6-2, 2.19 ERA and lifetime, Wainwright is 16-8 with a 2.33 ERA versus the Brew Crew. Milwaukee will counter with Adrian Houser (5-5, 3.76 ERA) and while his ERA is not bad, he's been far more successful as reliever than starter (4-0, 1.47 ERA vs. 1-5, 5.28 ERA). With the Redbirds 11-2 vs. NL teams allowing five or more runs a game in the second half of the season, let's fly with them.

Minnesota had 15 hits and only scored four runs last night in loss to White Sox. That's three games of 10 or more runners left on base, that stops tonight. The Twins are 16-5 against the run line as a home favorite when the run line price is -100 or more since 2017. And they are 25-6 at home vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game in the second half of the season since last year, winning by 2.4 RPG. Twinkies cover.

San Diego has won three in a row and gotten solid pitching across the board in permitting only eight runs in this stretch. Cal Quantrill (6-3, 3.23 ERA) has been very good for the Padres the last month which gives them a shot. But Sonny Gray (8-6, 2.98 ERA) is pitching as he did in Oakland. Gray is 5-1 with a 1.59 ERA starting with his June 28 outing and he and Cincy on the season are 10-2 at home, while San Diego is 6-17 having won four of their last five games. Let's finish this off knowing the total is 8.5 and Gray and Cincy are 10-1 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.

Both teams come into this affair with good home/road numbers with Cleveland 35-25 away and New York 34-21 when batting last. For MLB picks we are siding with the Indians who are 15-5 in road games in the second half of the season, while the Mets are 7-25 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 in their last 32 tries. Here is the clincher: Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against an opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or lower over his last five starts are 15-54. 

We have a pitching mismatch and a team's mismatch. Stephen Strasburg (15-5, 3.82 ERA) takes the ball for Washington and takes on Pittsburgh right-hander Chris Archer (3-9, 5.23).Strasburg is 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA in nine career starts against Pittsburgh. In his past two starts against the Pirates, he has allowed two earned runs in 14 2/3 innings, with 19 strikeouts and 3 walks. Archer is 0-4 with a 5.26 ERA in his past 12 starts, and Pittsburgh has lost each of his past seven outings. The Nationals have won 10 of 13, the Pirates have lost 28 of 35. Enough said.

Washington's Joe Ross continues to pitch great with  0.50 ERA in his last three starts and he has a 1.62 ERA on the road in a trio of attempts since taking over for Max Scherzer. After being a reliable middle of the rotation starter, Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams has not rebounded from injury and has a 5.50 ERA as a starter. The Pirates as a team are even worse having lost 11 of 14 and are 3-17 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.40 or better. With Ross throwing well and the Bucs 4-15 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season, the Nats nail Pitt. 

San Francisco has won the first three games in their series against Arizona and has blasted D-Backs pitching for 28 runs. Hard-pressed to believe Arizona starter Merrill Kelly (8-12, 4.75 ERA) will slow them down as he has allowed at least six runs in three of his past four outings and he and teammates are 2-8 in his last 10 starts. Madison Bumgarner's (8-7, 3.63) record does not belie how well he's pitched with an ERA under 3.00 in his last 10 starts, nine which are San Fran wins. Did further research and found this gem; road favorites batting .325 or better over their last three games, against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five outings, are 36-10 since 2015.  

The Dodgers were down 3-1 last night and looked in trouble. Then the Atlanta bullpen shows up and they went to work. L.A. scored six runs in the seventh and eighth innings for an impressive victory and tonight trot out Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-2, 1.45 ERA) against Mike Foltynewicz (4-5, 6.24). The Dodgers set a major league record last night with four or more homers in five straight contests which has to have a struggling Foltynewicz on full alert. Atlanta added guys to their pen but none are doing the job. This is a starting pitching mismatch with  Foltynewicz and Atlanta 4-12 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons. Once L.A. disposes of Folty, they burn the Braves pen. 

Spent time this morning trying to talk myself out of taking the red hot Redbirds. St. Louis has won six of seven, scoring 6.0 RPG in the process. Miles Mikolas (7-12, 4.13) caused me to pause with a 2-7 record and 6.34 ERA and I thought that was my ticket out. Then I dug further in the numbers and found the Cardinals are 18-6 playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season and 15-4 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 in 2019. As long as Mikolas doesn't have a dreadful game, the Cards bullpen has an ERA under 2.00 in their last six contests and they are 17-11 at Great American Ballpark. Taking St. Louis.

The Angels have won four of six and have started hitting the ball again but they were running into a hot pitcher in Lucas Giolito (12-6, 3.42 ERA) for Chicago. The right-hander is a strikeout machine, who has 171 strikeouts in 136 2/3 innings and he's fanned 46 in 30 2/3 innings over his last five outings. Giolito has done his best work on the road and he and the White Sox are 18-10 away the last two seasons, which includes 8-3 this year. The Pale Hose's offense has perked up the past two contests with 20 total runs and they should have some very good swings versus Angels starter Patrick Sandoval (5.59) and a worn-out Halos bullpen.

Washington remains in the lead for the top Wild Card in the NL and they will maintain that status with a win over Milwaukee tonight. The Nationals offense is scalding hot with 34 runs in their last four games. While the Brewers Adrian Houser (5-5, 4.00 ERA) has pitched better of late, look for him to be merely a speed bump this evening. Patrick Corbin (9-5, 3.41) takes the horsehide for the Nats and he's has been a force at home, where he possesses a 1.78 ERA in 11 starts (Nationals 9-2), good enough for the second-best home ERA in the majors. Let's close this out with Washington 11-1 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or lower in the second half of the season.

This season Houston hasowned Oakland with a 9-2 mark and the last couple of years they are 17-7 at Oak-Town. At least for a night that will not hold up. The Astros have lost three of four which is not a sign to panic. Though newly acquired Aaron Sanchez has pitched better in a Houston uniform in two starts, he's still 5-14 this season, with a 5.60 ERA and his new club is a mediocre 12-15 after a road loss. Mike Fiers goes for the Athletics and he's not lost in his last 17 starts (he' 9-0 and A's 13-4) and has posted a sterling 2.12 ERA, which included two sharp efforts versus tonight's opponent. With the A's 37-21 at home and Fiers 18-5, if his team is off a win (Team's record), it's the Green and Gold tonight! 

This was the Mets chance to make a run at Atlanta and it has not happened, losing the first two of the series and having tumbled to 4th place in the NL East. New York's Marcus Stroman (6-11, 3.20) has an ERA better than his record and though he's pitched in bad luck on occasion, to use and old school baseball term - He's pitched good enough to lose. In other words, in a close contest, Stroman has made one key mistake that cost him. Julio Teheran (7-7, 3.35) is throwing like the ace Atlanta thought he could be five years ago with a 1.91 ERA in his past seven starts. With Teheran 8-1 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game (Braves Record) and the Mets 4-14 in road games after a loss by two runs or less, the Bravos sweep. 

Los Angeles has outscored Miami 24-2 thus far in the series. The differential might not be that large today, but the Dodgers will cover the run line. The Marlins come into this one 7-22 against the run line when playing on Thursday (usually a series finale). Also, August road favorites with a money line of -175 or more like L.A. with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season, are 56-9, since 2015, winning by 3.7 RPG.

For Kansas City, the 1-70 series has taken a turn for the worse. With last night's loss to the Redbirds, the Royals have dropped six straight to the Cardinals at home and is 3-10 since 2017. After a recent 0-5 road trip, St. Louis has rebounded with four straight wins and is 16-5 vs. losing teams in the second half of the season. Cards starter Dakota Hudson (10-6, 4.01 ERA) has not been sharp of late but he and his teammates have had their way with foes that are below .500 with a 10-1 mark. With K.C. having been shutout 2-0 on Tuesday, they are 2-18 after a game with a combined score of two runs or less. 

Without going thru every single pick I've made this season, I don't recall off the top taking Toronto in 2019. I've played against them plenty, but not with them. However, the Blue Jays are a far different club since bringing up many of their top prospects and are 23-21 in their last 44 and have taken 11 of the last 16. For Texas, this is the last of a nine-game road trip that has them at 2-6 and scoring a dismal 1.66 RPG. Though the Jays Sean Reid-Foley (2-2, 2.36 ERA) has an easily forgettable name, he's not pitched poorly and he has a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts. With the Rangers laboring more than A$AP Rocky with a 4-18 record in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over the last three years, Toronto gets a rare call. 

Tampa Bay hammered San Diego last night 10-4, which was their 13th win in 16 tries. That moved the Rays to 39-22 on the road, which is the best record in baseball away from home. The Padres are getting better and have some exceptional young talent, but they are not there yet and they have really struggled against LH starters likes Brendon McKay at 8-16 this season. The Friars have lost 11 of 16 home games and are 2-9 at home vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or lower. The Rays give San Diego a devil of a time again.

There was a time you would never think to go against Madison Bumgarner, that is no longer the case. It's not that he's turned into a bad pitcher, rather, he's slipped just a touch and he's no longer on championship teams. In this Bay Area battle, Oakland is the better team and while Mad Bum and San Francisco are 10-4 at home, Brett Anderson and the A's are 9-3 on the road this season, which includes 7-0 as a road underdog of +100 or higher. One more aspect I cannot overlook, the Giants 14-20 vs. lefty starters and the Athletics are 21-9.

This AL East total is about what you want to believe. These teams are 14-3 OVER this season, 21-5 OVER the last three years at Yankee Stadium and 44-11 OVER since 2017. If you look at the starting pitchers, John Means (5-2 UNDER road record) and Domingo German (9-1 UNDER home record) you could be swayed to think the total rising from 10 to 10.5 might be a mistake. However, the history says lots of runs and both bullpens where used extensively in yesterday's doubleheader and home plate ump Marvin Hudson is 14-7 OVER this season.

It's bad enough Pittsburgh is 4-24 and seems to have all but given up, but yesterday with a victory in their grasp, the Pirates gave up an 8-4 lead at St. Louis and lost 11-9. The flight to Anaheim got even longer with that setback and while the Angels closed their eight-game losing streak with a couple of nice wins at Boston and is expected to be in much better spirits. With the Bucs on an eight-game losing streak of their own, 10-18 vs. LH starters and the Halos 12-1 vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over a long stretch, bet against the Bucs.

Thought long and hard about this one because the ML doesn't make sense. Cleveland's playing great baseball and their most recent streak has them at 8-2. Boston is 3-11 after losing a pair at Fenway against an Angels team that was in the midst of an eight-game losing streak. Cannot figure why the Red Sox are favored even with Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.17) starting, since unless he's going eight amazing inning, the Boston bullpen is in tatters. Additionally, the Indians are 24-12 vs. LH starters while the BoSox are 11-21 the money line is +125 to -125 this season. 

Minnesota got a clutch win last night at home to retake first place over Cleveland. Twins starter Jose Berrios is coming off a brutal outing in allowing nine runs and with how competitive he is, he should shine in a big moment. Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale (1-1, 0.75) has been superb in two starts, but those were at home and not in a high-pressure situation. With the Indians only 32-40 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better and the Twins 55-27 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse, Minny earns a series split.

After trailing by 11 1/2 games on June 2, just over nine weeks later Cleveland has caught Minnesota and is tied with them for the lead in the AL Central. The Indians have done a lot of damage this week, having won four in a row while the Twins have lost four straight, including the last two to the Tribe at Target Field. Tonight, the Twins fortunes change as they get after Cleveland starter Adam Plutko and other Indians pitchers and better their 12-4 record playing with double revenge this season. Minny starter Jake Odorizzi (12-5, 3.61 ERA) is having an excellent season and he comes up with a big effort. Why is this possible for the slumping Twins, because Odorizzi is 12-1 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (Team's Record) 

Atlanta got a nice wake call when losing to Miami on Thursday 9-2 and they responded with an 8-4 victory last night. Expect a similar margin of victory for the Braves tonight with Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) toeing the slab for Atlanta. Soroka is 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA against the Marlins and both starts were in Miami. In fact, Soroka is lights on the road at 6-0, 1.45 ERA. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) looks to have hit the proverbial wall with an ERA over 7 in his past five starts, with the trouble coming the second time thru the batting order. With Soroka 8-0 against the run line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or lower and Alcantara 3-11 against the run line if his team is off a loss, take the Bravos on the RL. 

On the surface, this might not make much sense but hear me out. Tampa Bay is battling with Oakland for the last AL Wild Card spot. Seattle is playing out the rest of a dismal campaign. And though the Rays are 35-22 on the road, they are 2-11 versus the Mariners of late which includes six straight setbacks in the great Northwest. Marco Gonzales has been one of the few bright spots for the M's starting staff at 12-9, with a 4.32 ERA. With the total set at 9.5, Gonzales is 12-5 when the total is 9 to 9.5 in the last two seasons. (M's Record) Finally, Tampa Bay is less than 50-50 bet vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) at 19-24 (-12.3 Units), making the Mariners worth a shot as an underdog. 

St. Louis went 0-5 on their West Coast road trip and are happy to be home. The Cardinals will face one of the teams that are going as bad as they are in Pittsburgh. At least the Cards have some advantages, seeing the Pirates Chris Archer (3-8, 5.35 ERA), whose decline as pitcher continues. The Bucs are 4-21 since the All-Star break. This should help the Redbirds offense and they are 33-12 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Lastly, Cards starter Dakota Hudson and friends are 9-1 playing against a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

Atlanta was mauled by Miami 9-2 Thursday to start this divisional series. Those betting baseball are not enthralled with the Braves this time either, taking them from -150 to -135. That was Atlanta's first loss to the Marlins in seven tries and while Miami's Caleb Smith (7-5, 3.35 ERA) can be really tough, the Atlanta is 16-10 vs. left-handed starters and they are 13-2 as a road favorite of -125 or more this season. 

On slow baseball day, this one contest stands out. Colorado and San Diego are the two worst teams in the NL and the last month or more they have earned it with the Rockies 8-23 since the end of June and the Padres 7-16 since the All-Star. While this looks like the Orioles and Tigers from the AL, Jon Gray of the Rocks has 10-3 career record against the Padres with a 2.87 ERA in 19 career appearances (18 starts). He is 5-2 in eight career starts at Petco Park with a 2.42 ERA. Friars' starter Eric Lauer is 0-3 in four career starts with a 12.51 ERA vs. Colorado, though most of the bloated ERA came at Coors Field, nonetheless, the facts are as stated. Both teams have plenty of negative numbers, but I cannot ignore San Diego is 3-10 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the year, with the Rockies 14-4 away after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more.

This will be the White Sox and Tigers third game in just over 24 hours. Ivan Nova (6-9, 5.10 ERA) is nothing special for Chicago but he's gotten into a good rhythm and has a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. Detroit scored 10 runs in the nightcap last night to split the doubleheader, but they are still 29th in the majors in scoring. Chicago might be 12 games under .500, but they are 21-17 vs. lefty starters like the Tigers Tyler Alexander. Here is the knockout punch, Detroit has not won back to back games since May 28-31 when they took three straight.

When thinking about the Texas Rangers, one aspect you never ponder is them winning a 1-0 game, home or away, yet, this is what they did Monday in Cleveland. Those betting baseball are certain that won't happen again and they have pushed the total from 10 to 10.5 with Ariel Jurado (6-6, 4.92) taking on the Indians Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.41). While a case could be made for such an outcome, Texas is 7-0 UNDER after four or more consecutive wins this season and the Tribe is 15-3 UNDER revenging a loss where they scored one run or less. 

While no fan of Washington, the bloom has come off the rose for San Francisco, losers of six of their last nine and returning who they were most of the season. The Nationals are not much better at 4-8 in their last dozen but Anibal Sanchez (6-6, 3.80) give them a real shot and he hasn't lost since May 10, a stretch of 12 games in which he's gone 6-0 with a 2.88 ERA. Good spot for the Nats to pick up another winner.

Though I like the Braves as a road team, I see little reason to trust Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 6.37 ERA) who had a so-so 3.86 ERA in 10 Triple-A starts. I see ample reason to trust Jose Berrios (10-5, 2.80) of the Twins. With the total at 10, Minnesota is 47-25 when the total is 8.5 to 10 and is a superb 56-30 vs. RH starters.

Milwaukee snapped out of their offensive slump with a 9-7 victory Monday over Pittsburgh. That dropped the Pirates 4-19 since the break and frankly there is no end in sight.  Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.73 ERA) continues to do a solid job for the Brewers and he's 8-4 lifetime vs. the Bucs. Besides all the issues Pitt is having they are facing a Brew Crew club that is 16-1 after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games since 2017. 

Tampa Bay's offense is white-hot in winning six straight and eight of nine, averaging 7.0 RPG, compared to a season average of 4.8. The Rays are averaging over a dozen hits a game in their last seven tries. After winning five in a row, Toronto lost two to Baltimore and is 32-72 vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game, losing by 1.7 RPG. The group, "The Bangles" might have suffered over "Manic Monday" over three decades ago, but not the Rays who are 22-5 since last year to start a new work week, winning by 2.2 RPG. To slam the door, AL favorites with a money line of -175 to -250, scoring 4.4 to 4.9 runs a game against an ordinary AL starter whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.70, have won by 2.2 RPG the last 230 times this exact situation has come up. With Charley Morton (12-3. 2.78 ERA) and the No. 4 bullpen in baseball, Tampa Bay by at least two runs. 

After a terrible homestand Chicago went on the road and took a series at Philadelphia. Look for that mini-momentum to continue tonight against a dastardly Detroit club. The White Sox have their ace Lucas Giolito taking the ball and he's been tough on the road at 6-2 with 2.75 ERA in 10 starts and he the Pale Hose are 10-2 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Sox Record) We know how bad Detroit is (13-36 at home) and AL underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 scoring 3.9 or fewer runs game are 6-41 since 2015.

The Mets bounced on Saturday from Friday's setback and have won eight of nine, while Pittsburgh's woes continue, having lost for the 13th time in 15 contests. Look for more of the same today with Noah Snydergaard (7-5, 4.10 ERA) who continues to pitch well (1.69 ERA L3 starts covering 21 1/3 innings) and he faces a Pirates lineup card that 10-26 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. Though New York is hardly an offensive powerhouse at 4.7 RPG, the Bucs are 20-49 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game on the season and falter again.

Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.45 ERA) will face Julio Teheran (6-7, 3.38) today and they are having similar seasons. But here is why I like Teheran and Atlanta today. Let's first consider Cincinnati is around a +115 to +120 underdog and they are 19-37 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Braves have been exceptional in closing out weekend series in 2019 with a 14-4 Sunday record and the last two years Atlanta and Teheran are 9-0 on Sunday's. Here is a little known fact on the Reds; they are  14-35 away after two straight games where they committed no errors. Tomahawk Chop on Sunday.

Cleveland has won 11 of 14 over the Angels the last three years which includes a 7-1 mark at Progressive Field. The Halos are ultra-thin in starting pitching, which taxes their bullpen and they have allowed 6.8 RPG in past nine outings and in the process have dropped seven of nine. Shane Bieber is having an outstanding season and he and Indians bullpen can certainly contain the team from Anaheim. One big closing nugget, the last 20 times the Angels allowed seven runs or more in two straight games, they have been out by 3.0 RPG in the next one. Grab the Tribe on the RL.

You can rest assure St. Louis is going to have ample support tonight in betting and handicapping circles. One place they will not is right here and let me explain why. There is a lot of fawning over the Cards Dakota Hudson at 10-5, but if you dig into the numbers he allows more than a hit an inning and his K/W ratio doesn't even sniff 2-to-1 at 1.62-to-1. That's not good in today's game. Mike Fiers of Oakland is 6-1 (A's 8-3) at home with an awesome 1.95 ERA and he's 23-6 in home games the last two seasons. (Team's Record) Here the clincher few know about, the Redbirds are 6-14 after a win by four runs or more and an abysmal 0-11 after a five-game span where the bullpen's ERA was 2.00 or better this season, losing by 3.5 RPG.

Stephen Strasburg (14-4, 3.26 ERA) enters tonight's game with the most wins in the NL and has a shot at the magic number of 20 wins coming off a July that saw him at 5-0 with a 1.14 ERA in July. Washington won the series opener last night 3-0 and is now 7-1 at Chase Field since 2017. He will face Robbie Ray (9-7, 3.91), who was involved in numerous trade rumors that never materialized. With last night's setback, the D-Backs fell back to 23-27 at home and Ray lifetime is 0-5 with a 6.52 ERA in six career starts vs. the Nationals. With Strasburg and the Nats 18-3 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since last year, Washington takes Game 2 in the desert.

Too much value on New York here to pass up. The Yankees are 40-18 at home and they have won 14 of 17 of Domingo German's starts this season. Chris Sale continues to have a rugged season at 5-10 with a 4.26 ERA and in his last 10 starts that ERA is 4.97. Sale is also 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA against the Yankees this season and 6-16 is his team is off three more consecutive losses like Boston is. (Team's record)

Detroit is the worst team in the big leagues with few ways to score and even fewer ways to prevent runs. Lance Lynn has pitched very well all season long for Texas and there is little reason to think he cannot contain the Tigers tonight. Detroit lost all three home games to the Rangers earlier this season and is 6-25 playing with triple revenge and most importantly losing those lose contests by 3.0 RPG. Also, the Tigers had a rare scoring outburst in the win at Anaheim Wednesday and is 4-20 after scoring nine runs or more in next outing, losing by 2.6 RPG. Texas does the two-step on Cats and wins by at least two runs. 

New York has won seven straight and in the process has allowed 2.0 RPG. One contributor is Steven Matz who has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and who is capable of containing a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 3.9 RPG vs. LH starters. Been a big Trevor Williams fan over the years but he's really struggled since coming off the IL. However, he's starting to come around in permitting four earned runs in his last two starts and he is 31-15 UNDER the last two years. With the average total score of 6.9 totals runs in the Mets winning streak, I'll go low and say UNDER.

As bad as Chicago has played on the road this season if they leave St. Louis alone in first place to return to Wrigley Field, they would rather pleased. I see that happening with Jon Lester (9-6, 3.63) going for the Cubs. Lester in his career is  50-16 vs. an NL club with a team batting average of .250 or worse and the last two seasons he is 36-17 in all starts. (Team's Record) The Cardinals will use Jack Flaherty (4-6, 4.17 ERA), who does have a 1.48 ERA in his past four outings, but he and the Redbirds are 5-10 when favored by -110 or higher in 2019. Cubs win, Cubs win! 

One can only imagine what kind of record Jacob deGrom (6-7, 2.86) record would have the last two years on a good team. The Mets deGrom has been almost unhittable of late with a silly 0.47 ERA, with 25 K's, 7 W's and 13 hits allowed in 19 innings. With the White Sox averaging 2.0 RPG in there last seven, hard to think they will keep the scoreboard operator busy. Lucas Giolito's (11-5, 3.52) ERA number has climbed after a fantastic start. He was hammered for seven runs in his last start, but he's bounced back each time he's had a poor showing this season. The average total score of the Mets last eight contests is 7.5 and with these starters, this has the feel of a 4-2 or 4-3 outcome and I'll back the UNDER.

Going to keep this real simple with one of my Super Systems. Play On Wednesday favorites with a money line of -200 or more like Minnesota after two or more consecutive wins. These teams win 83.9% (78-15) of the time since 2015 and most importantly by 2.8 RPG.

Cannot overlook that Colorado is 6-18 this month and the Dodgers are starting one of the best pitchers in baseball in Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.74 ERA). Los Angeles lost the opening game of the series, but is 18-4 having lost two of three. While German Marquez (10-5, 4.88) has a superb ERA of 2.89 against the L.A. the majority of that low number comes pitching at Dodger Stadium, not at Coors Field. Also, keep this mind, NL home teams (Rockies) when the money line is +125 to -125, who score 4.7 or more runs a game against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.00 or lower), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 4-14 since 2015.

This game comes down to Oakland having a decided starting pitching edge. The A's will send Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.09 ERA) to the bump and he has 3.18 ERA in his last three starts. Milwaukee, because of injury will have to rely on Adrian Houser, who is 4-4 with a 4.19 ERA overall, but is 0-4 with a 7.83 ERA in six starts. Though the Brewers have won 8 of 12, they have only scored 3.3 RPG in their last seven tries while Oakland has been dependably good for some time at 24-11 since June 17 and 41-22 since May 16. The A's punch a winning ticket.

Miami has won five of six, but they have not faced a team as good as Minnesota in that stretch. The Twins are 33-20 on the road and despite the Marlins recent success, they are 21-33 at home. The Twins are also back to swinging the lumber, averaging 7.7 RPG in their last eight games and they are 15-4 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Twinkies starter Jake Odorizzi (11-5, 3.84 ERA) has cooled since his hot start, but tonight's total is in his wheelhouse, as he and the Twins are 12-2 when the total is 8.5 to 10. Even with the Marlins recent success, they are still 13-34 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.

Toronto and Kansas is largely the lesser of two evils wager. I'll back the Royals because of Brad Keller (7-9, 3.95 ERA), who is on a personal four-game winning streak, has a 3.29 ERA at home and 1.27 ERA in his past three starts. Keller and the Royals are 9-2 at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse. After an exhilarating come from behind win on Saturday, the Blue Jays gave it right back on Sunday in blowing that game and are 3-13 after a one-run loss this season. K.C. or nothing today. 

Let's get directly to the point.  Cleveland is 13-4 against the run line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game in the second half of the season and Kansas City starter Danny Duffy is not only 0-10 of late vs. the Tribe, but he's 1-9 against the run line in home games playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons. Indians scalp the Royals again.

Today's AL Central matchup has everything to do with the pitchers. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson is 23-7 playing against a poor team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%), with he and the Twins winning by 2.2 RPG. Gibson is also 29-12 against the run line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest in the second half of the season for his career. Chicago starts Dylan Covey, who is 10-20 against the RL the last two years and when you break that down further he's 2-13 against the RL vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game. 

Not usually one to ask mediocre teams to sweep, the Mets are 9-5 since the break and are facing Pittsburgh who has fallen into the black hole at 2-13. The Pirates cannot hit or pitch and today's starter Chris Archer gives zero indication he's going to improve the situation with a 6.91 ERA on the road and he the Pirates 2-6 away from home. The Mets Jason Vargas has a 1.80 ERA at Citi Field this season and for his career, he is 38-17 in home games when playing against losing teams. With the Bucs 10-26 playing with double revenge, it's the Metropolitans. 

All indications are this is Robbie Ray's last game in an Arizona uniform. Ray's stuff is among the best in baseball, but he's well-known for losing concentration in the middle of starts, but his value has gone up with a 4-0 record in July with a 3.33 ERA. Ray has 2.28 ERA in four career starts against the Miami and he faces a Marlins offense that is averaging a pathetic 2.6 RPG in their last 10 outings and its bullpen is 11th in ERA in the NL. The Snakes lefty is 14-3 in road games vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse since 2017 (Team's Record). With the D-Backs 10-3 after a win by six runs or more and Miami 12-34 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, Ray wins his last Arizona start. 

For this one, I'm relying on numbers for this AL Central encounter. I have two game systems that are calling for an UNDER, one has a total score of 7.9 runs and the other 8.1. In part how they arrived at those figures is Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger has a 1.88 ERA in his past four starts, pitching more like he did last since coming off the IL. Clevinger against Kansas City is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) and is backed up the No.1 bullpen in baseball. The Royals Glenn Sparkman (3-6, 4.67) is not on anyone's fantasy MLB list, but at 'The K' (home park), he has a 1.76 ERA, with an even lower 1.03 ERA in five starts there. Go UNDER.

Missed by not taking the Red Sox, thinking the Yankees were in the right spot. Not going to make that same mistake as New York pitching is in tatters in allowing 46 runs in their last four games, while Boston bats are hotter than an Instagram model in scoring 8.9 RPG in their last seven tries. Six straight Yankees starters have failed to last beyond four innings and one them is Saturday starter CC Sabathia (5-5, 4.50 ERA), who allowed seven runs in registering 12 outs and was taken yard four times in Minnesota. Next, let's consider two situations beginning with New York is 3-15 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since last year and Boston hurler Eduardo Rodriguez (12-4, 4.10) is 8-1 of late with a 3.10 ERA and when he the Red Sox are a Fenway favorite of -110 or higher the last three seasons, they are 26-4!    

For San Francisco and San Diego, their fortunes changed the last time they met in So Cal on July 1st. The Giants swept a three-game road series and are 16-4 this month and they are in the wild card conversation. The Padres have gone the opposite direction at 6-13 and are one-game out of last place in the NL West. Besides how these rivals are playing, San Fran is 27-23 on the road and averaging a robust 5.5 RPG away from home, while San Diego has a inverse record of 23-27 at Petco Park and is plating a mere 3.8 RPG. The Friars will face a Jeff Samardzija, whose in remarkably good form (2.89 ERA L3S), who has 9-3 career record against the Padres (3.38 ERA) and who's 5-2 (2.42 ERA) at Petco. Giants move to 8-1 tonight vs. teams with a losing record after 81 games this season.

After facing the A's and Yankees, Minnesota stepped down in class and socked the White Sox 10-3 last evening. Look for the Twins to continue to have success against Chicago pitching tonight as not only does this team average a 6.1 RPG on the road (2nd in baseball), but in their last seven games overall they are at 7.3 RPG. Too much offense for Minnesota who is also 49-24 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .330 or worse this season. 

New York was blowout big time by Boston last night and in their last three games they have surrendered 38 runs. However, it's not like the Yankees are slumping as they have average 8.1 RPG in their last seven. One thing about New York is they have bounced back after the bullpen was rocked and they are 12-1 after a game where the pen was hit hard for four or more earned runs. Contrast with Boston who is 2-9 at Fenway after scoring 17 runs or more. The Red Sox are just 13-16 vs. LH starters this season and New York's James Paxton is 3-0 in five starts with a sterling 1.68 ERA against Boston. The Yanks even the series Friday.

Washington goes for the four-game sweep of Colorado today. The Rockies have scored three times in D.C. thus far and it's hard to think they will have a lot of success against Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.30 ERA), who's in the midst of a scintillating 7-0 run with an 0.84 ERA during a nine-game stretch. Colorado will start Jeff Hoffman (1-3, 6.75) and while they could knock him around, Washington only scored five runs yesterday in the double-header sweep and with a day after playing two, the Nats hitters could be a little arm weary. The Nationals come in 15-3 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times game in the second half of the season and the Rocks are 8-0 UNDER in road games after two straight games with no home runs. 

San Diego is 2-8 since the break and is terrible in the clutch. Last night they made superstars out of aging players like Robinson Cano and Jason Vargas in a 5-2 setback. Tonight, the Padres start Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 5.14 ERA) who is 0-10 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season. (Padres record) Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.36) will toe the rubber for New York and he faces a Friars squad that is 30-61 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better and 10-32 the last two July's.

Seven of the 11 games St. Louis and Pittsburgh have played this season have been one-run outcomes. The Cardinals have managed to win five of them and the is mostly a function of having a stronger bullpen. Tonight's starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright (6-7, 4.50 ERA) vs. Jordan Lyles (5-6, 4.91). Wainwright is not the pitcher of his youth and is coming off his worst outing of the season but faces a familiar foe and in 35 starts against the Pirates, the teams he's pitched for are 23-12. Lyles is off one his better outings in some time (5 2/3 innings, one run allowed), but Pittsburgh still lost and the right-hander and the clubs he's played for are 0-17 in July. With the Cards righty and teammates 11-2 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season since last year, the Redbirds move to 10-2 since July 13.

Houston is on fire again and while the offense is averaging over 7 RPG in their six-game winning streak, they are allowing 2.0 RPG in the same stretch. The Astros Wade Miley (8-4, 3.25 ERA) can contain the Oakland offense and he has a 1.86 ERA at home this season. Mike Fiers (9-3, 3.61) after a slow start has pitched extremely well and is 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a .197 opponents' batting average over his past 13 starts dating back to his May 7. Further research finds the A's s 10-2 UNDER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better and Houston 10-2 UNDER in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better this season. 

Milwaukee has lost four in a row to Cincinnati but the streak ends tonight. The Brewers will have  Zach Davies (8-2, 2.79 ERA) going tonight and he's been almost impossible to score on with a 0.77 ERA in his last four outings. Tanner Roark takes the ball for the Reds and he has a 7.16 ERA in his past three starts and his team is 2-10 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog this season. Contrast that with the brew Crew at 21-5 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. In addition, the Cincy bullpen has been battered in their last five games and gave up four runs in the 8th inning last night with a 4-1 lead and the offense bailed them out.

As I have stated several times making these selections, I'm no fan of the Phillies, I thought they were overrated coming into the season and nothing has changed my mind. However, when it comes down to Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) facing one of the worst teams in baseball, I'm on Philadelphia. Detroit is the worst home team in baseball at 13-34. They are also 4-22 playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) and 1-14 as a home underdog of +125 to +175. It's the right setup for the Phils at a reasonable price to cash.

Since June 4th, Cleveland is a baseball-best 28-11. Tonight they continue playing one bad team after another, this time in Toronto. The Indians Mike Clevinger is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA over his past three starts after a horrible start after coming off the IL and is settling in. The Blue Jays will counter with left-hander Ryan Borucki (season debut), who was 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts last season as a rookie. This season the Tribe is 21-10 against lefty starters and scores 5.4 PPG compared to 4-2 vs. RH starters. With Cleveland 11-3 against the run line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season, the Indians take care of business.

St. Louis arrives in the Steel City having won seven of nine while Pittsburgh has done the complete opposite and is 2-7 in their last nine outings. Been a big fan of the Pirates Trevor Williams over the years and he's made me a good chunk of money, but he's not been right since coming off the IL with a 9.53 ERA in four starts. Daniel Ponce de Leon (2.80 ERA) is taking over for a struggling Michael Wacha's spot in the rotation and he has a 2.49 ERA in five tries and the Cardinals have won four of them. With Williams struggles and the Bucs losers of seven of nine against winning teams and having a bullpen ERA of nearly a run higher (0.91), let's snag St. Louis in the series opener. 

On the surface, this play doesn't make sense. Texas has lost six straight and six in a row at Houston who is 35-14 at home. But the Rangers are 9-1 revenging four or more straight losses  to the same opponent and faces rookie right-hander Rogelio Armenteros, who was 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA over 14 games (13 starts) with Triple-A Round Rock. Texas will start Lance Lynn (12-5, 3.87 ERA), who's tied for the major's lead in victories and who has a 1.90 ERA over nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Astros. Searching deeper, we found AL teams with a  .265 to .279 batting average, against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or lower, with an on-base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games, are only 16-45 since 2015. Rangers salvage one in H-Town. 

Oddsmakers have stubbornly posted 10.5's and an 11 in this series and all three games have been UNDER's. Today we have another 10.5 for the series finale and the sense is another lower scoring game is on tap. We'll begin with the A's Daniel Mengden (4.21 ERA) has an ERA of 1.96 on the road this season. Next, we'll follow with the Twins Michael Pineda (4.38 ERA), whose slider is really working with a 1.50 ERA in his past three starts (18 innings), fanning 20 and walking only three. Oakland comes into this contest 13-4 UNDER vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game, while Minnesota is on an 8-1 UNDER run and is 7-0 UNDER vs. winning teams. 

The Yankees "savages" are at it again and have tallied 19 runs in two games against Colorado pitching and are averaging 7.5 RPG during their five-game winning streak. The Rockies have fallen apart in losing 13 of 15 and allowed eight or more runs 10 times in this horrible stretch. Colorado's German Marquez (8-5, 5.12) has an ERA of 11.66 in his last three starts and this is not a short term issue either with a 7.55 ERA in his last seven outings. New York is 12-3 against the run line in July, with the Rocks a deplorable 0-14 against the run line in July games, losing by 4.2 RPG.

Gio Gonzalez makes his first start in nearly two months for Milwaukee after dealing with "dead arm". He made two rehab starts but both were under 70 pitches, so hard to imagine he's going past that figure tonight. That means the Brewers bullpen will be at work again and when the money line is +130 to -130 and a team like Milwaukee has played three straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games, they are 11-35 since 2015. Then add in Zack Greinke is 65-25 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season for his career (Team's Record), we have a Arizona winner.

If Cincinnati is not angry (there is another word that begins with P that comes to mind) after blowing 3-0 and 7-0 leads to St. Louis at home, they deserve to lose 10 in a row. The Reds entered this series with the 2nd-best bullpen in the NL, but after surrendering 13 runs the last two nights, they have tumbled to 5th. Enter Luis Castillo (9-3, 2.41 ERA) to save the day. Castillo has the ability to slow everything down and he's facing a St. Louis team that is 2-9 after scoring eight or more runs. Also, the Reds might only be 2-5 in their last seven, but they are averaging 7.4 RPG and have 28 hits in this series. Castillo gets everything under control and Cincy bats work on the Cards work on Miles Mikolas (6-9) who has a 7.40 ERA on this season.

Oakland rebounded Friday night to take Game 2 of their series with Minnesota and they have an excellent chance to take the series lead Saturday. While we are big fans of Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.10 ERA), he's not won any of his last six starts (Twins 1-5). Match that with a Minny offense that has cooled considerably at 3.7 RPG in their last eight tries. Oakland trots out Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.79), who is having, at least for him, an incredible season and he has a 2.37 ERA in three career starts at Target Field. Anderson and the Athletics are 7-3 on the road this season. Let's also keep in mind the left-hander is 10-4 as a road underdog of +100 or higher the last two seasons (Team's Record) and the A's are 8-2 in away games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better. Nice dog spot!

Los Angeles is back at Dodger Stadium for the first time since July 7th and they will be excited since they have an unbelievable 37-12 record there. Upon their return, they get to use their best pitcher this season Hyun-Jin Ryu (10-2, 1.78 ERA). Ryu and the Dodgers are 9-0 at home this season and dating back to last year this combo is 17-2 at Chavez Ravine and very importantly for this pick, winning by 3.3 RPG. Digging into the numbers, we find that home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like L.A., an NL team scoring 5.0 or more RPG, against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 5.20, after a loss by two runs or less, are 22-7 since 2015, winning by 2.0 RPG. 

Washington blasted Atlanta last night 13-4 and has cut the Braves first-place lead to four games in the loss column. The Nationals have won 19 of 25 and while their bullpen remains shaky, Washington starters have a 1.97 ERA in their last 13 starts. Among the contributors is Patrick Corbin (7-5, 3.39), who has a 1.80 ERA in his past three starts. Corbin is 5-1 with a 1.66 ERA in nine previous appearances (seven starts) against Atlanta. The Braves are still a very good club, but they are slipping a bit at the moment and tonight their losing streak reaches four. 

Give manager Bruce Boche all the credit in the world for talking a roster well past its prime and having them competing to be a .500 club. San Francisco has won eight of nine, averaging 7.8 RPG and they will face a Mets that has won four in a row, all on the road. Simply put, the Giants are just playing well, as they are 11-2 this month and Madison Bumgarner has 1.80 ERA in his last four starts, striking out 28 in 20 innings. He has never lost to the Mets, going 6-0 with a 2.00 ERA in eight starts. Despite winning four straight, New York is 21-32 away from home and 3-14 after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more. 

Minnesota has cooled after a fabulous first half of the season and is just 6-9 in their last 15 games. The offense is still potent but has scored 4.0 RPG in their last seven tries and lowered their season average to a still mighty 5.6 RPG. There is a good chance the Twins could be held in check again tonight with Mike Fiers (9-3, 3.61) taking the mound in Minneapolis. Fiers' 2.31 ERA ranks as the second best among American League starters since April 26, and in 12 career appearances vs. Minnesota (11 starts), he is 6-1 with a stellar 2.66 ERA. Oakland as for moment replaced Minny as the "home run kings" with long balls in 17 straight games (37 in all). With the A's 20-5 after a win by four runs or more and 8-0 after two straight wins by 4 runs or more this season, a solid underdog spot!

Having a hard time trying to understand why Cincinnati is favored. The Reds are not a bad team but playing as about as expected. No question St. Louis has underachieved this season and they are only 20-26 on the road this season. On the surface, the pitching matchup is rather close with Dakota Hudson (8-4, 3.48 ERA) facing Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.99), but there is one difference. Hudson has a winning record and he and the Cards also have a winning record on the road (5-4). Roark is one of those back of the rotation hurlers who's a 50-50 guy and at home he and the Reds are 2-6 this season. Looking deeper into Roark's past he's 3-12 at home playing against a team with a winning record since 2017 and 4-11 at home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or lower since last season. (Team's Record) Grab the Redbirds.

It appears Cleveland's Mike Clevinger is hitting his stride in conceding only one run in his last two starts, which covered 11 innings. Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (3-8, 3.59 ERA) carries a 7.07 ERA in three starts against the Indians into Wednesday's game and despite this, the total has dipped from 9.5 to 9. However, the Tigers have not scored a single run for Turnbull in that trio of starts and probably won't score much either tonight in Cleveland. Let's look at the UNDER with Turnbull 12-5 UNDER for the year and the Indians 11-2 UNDER at home after five or more home games this season.

After a slow start with his new team, Dallas Keuchel has rounded into form with a 2.11 ERA in last three starts, each which has lasted at least seven innings. Keuchel is more than capable of slowing the Brewers bats down and Milwaukee scores 0.6 fewer runs against LH pitchers compared to RH hurlers. After last night's 13-1 debacle, Atlanta is 10-3 away after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. Another big factor to this contest is the total of 10, with the Braves 17-4 when the total is double digits while the Brew Crew is 4-10 and 2-7 at Miller Park when that happens.

Pittsburgh got their first victory since the All-Star break, but they will have to wait until Friday to secure another. The Pirates Chris Archer continues to have problems and is just another middle of the rotation pitcher at this point of his career. This season on the road he is 0-3 (Pirates 2-5) with a super-sized 7.32 ERA. Even with the setback, St. Louis is 16-9 at Busch the last three years against the Bucs. The Cardinals will start Daniel Ponce de Leon (1-0, 1.99 ERA), who has minuscule 1.25 in four starts in 2019. With Pitt 3-16 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.40 or better since last season, grab the home team.

With the changes in the odds, if you like mid-priced favorites, it's going to cost a little more the rest of the season. The Twins offense should handle New York and they fit several of my systems. In addition, the Mets are 2-15 in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start), while the Twinkies are 9-0 in home games vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season since 2017. 

Andrew Cashner (9-3, 3.83 ERA) comes to Boston to be their 5th starter. His goal is to give them six innings, keep them in the game and help save the bullpen and let the offense do the rest. While I don't expect him to pitch as well as he has lately (1.41 ERA in five starts) he should be pumped up to be a good team and facing a bad one. Red Sox hitters should rake Toronto rookie Jacob Waguespack, who was 2-6 with a 5.30 ERA at Triple-A this season. Boston is 20-11 on the RL when the total is 10 or higher and Cashner is a perfect 10-0 against the RL when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Los Angeles is back to swinging the bats and playing like the best team in baseball. Walker Buehler (8-1, 3.46 ERA) will face a Philadelphia squad that is not close to meeting expectations and who has lost six of nine. The Phillies Vince Velasquez (2-5, 4.63) has been inconsistent all season and even more so recently with 5.94 ERA in his last four starts. Concerning the run line, here are two keys about tonight, Philly is 2-13 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better (losing by 2.6 RPG) and Velasquez is 1-10 vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game since 2017, (Phillies Record) losing by 3.1 RPG. 

The White Sox were just swept at Oakland and scored only five runs. However, they should feel heartened to have their ace Lucas Giolito (11-3, 3.15 ERA) pitching tonight. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts against Kansas City and lifetime is 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 10 starts (8-2 team's record).  Jakob Junis of K.C. (4-8, 5.33 ERA) is coming off what is arguably his best out of the season against Washington (two runs allowed in seven innings) but he's seldom had two stellar back to back starts and the Royals bullpen has an 11-22 record in 2019. Additionally, AL home teams like K.C. with the money line is +125 to -125, with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring and allowing eight runs or more in a game, are 9-26 in next contest.

The line on the Braves and Brewers suggests the oddsmakers know something I don't. Atlanta's Max Fried (9-4, 4.29 ERA) has a 6.17 ERA in his past eight starts, I get it. But I also know Fried was great friends with the late Tyler Skaggs and he was a workout partner with him in SoCal and you know he's dedicating this game to him.  Milwaukee will use righty Adrian Houser (2-3, 4.01) and in his past three starts, covering only 11 innings, he's surrendered 11 runs on 17 hits. The Brewers bullpen was just crushed by San Francisco for 17 runs in 12 innings and with Atlanta's offense, there is no place to hide. Simply put, I'm backing Atlanta who is the better team, on a 7-1 run vs. the slumping Brew Crew who is 2-7 of late. 

Atlanta is on fire and today's price fits right in their wheelhouse. The Braves are 27-9 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season and should knock around the Padres Cal Quantrill, who has an ERA of almost 5. Also love the fact starter Mike Soroka is 9-0 when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Braves Record) And cannot overlook the Bravos have been closing out Sunday series at an alarming rate of 80% at 12-3!

Oakland has dominated Chicago in this series, outscoring them 18-3 to this point. While they might not beat them as bad as they have thus far into the weekend, look for the A's to win by at least a couple runs. Thought to be the ace of the White Sox staff, Reynoldo Lopex has struggled all year ar 4-8 with a deplorable 6.34 ERA, with opposing team batting .297 against him. The A's Brett Anderson has mostly stayed healthy and is 9-5 (A's 12-6) with a 3.86 ERA. With Oakland around a -200 ML favorite, they are 39-12 as -150 or larger fave and mostly importantly for this pick, winning by 2.6 RPG. Plus, the Athletics are a sensational 20-3 vs. foes outscored by 0.5 or more RPG in the second half of the season since last year and doing so by 3.0 RPG. Blowout!

Yesterday, went against Arizona, today, coming right back with them. It starts with Zack Greinke who is having a fabulous season at 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA. St. Louis scored four runs in the victory yesterday, but that is only 10 times plating in their last four games which is 2.5 RPG and Greinke's array of pitches is more than good enough to keep them off balance. The D-Backs are 22-8 with the veteran right-hander after they scored two or fewer runs, while the Cardinals are 3-7 in Adam Wainwright's past 10 starts. The Snakes slighter to a victory. 

At the moment, the Arizona and St. Louis are headed in opposite directions. The Diamondbacks have won four in a row while the Cardinals have lost three straight. That changes tonight. Though Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.03 ERA) pitched well in June (2.95 ERA), he's still 4-6 (D-Backs record) on the road with a 4.96 ERA. I like the arm talent of Dakota Hudson (7-4, 3.51) and he and teammates are 6-2 at Busch Stadium this season. Here are a couple other things to consider. The Redbirds are 24-10 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games, while the Snakes are 4-15 after allowing three runs or less in four straight contests. Expect the Cards to even the series.

Have to admit, the Reds Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.89 ERA) has pitched better than I would have ever imagined and he ends up being one of those guys that had a tough time wearing the Yankees uniform, as there have been many. There is a lot of pressure in the cement jungle and seeing this is Gray's first game at Coors Field, I think he will be spooked again, Gray is only 7-13 after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing the last two seasons. (Team's Record) Colorado enters this contest on a five-game losing streak, as its offense vanished. Back home, look for the Rockies to swing the lumber effectively and they are 12-3 after batting .175 or worse over a three-game span. Jon Gray is 4-0 vs. the Reds and with the total at 12, the Rocks are 16-4 at home when the total is 12 to 12.5 going back to last year. 

As I explained back in early March, I thought Harper to Philadelphia made them an overrated team and without Bryce, Washington was going to be better than expected. It took until now for that to come true and it continues tonight. The Nationals are on a 28-11 roll and will start Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.64 ERA), who routinely pitches well against Washington and has a 12-2 record and 2.72 ERA in 25 career starts (20-5) in the matchup. Nick Pivetta (4-3, 5.84) goes for Philly and he's 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA over his past four outings and against the Nats, 1-6 with a 10.80 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts). He has served up 13 homers in 31 2/3 innings versus Washington. Backing the better team in the right situation.

It's a well-known fact Kansas City is one of the worst teams in baseball and frequently this season I have gone against them, especially with Jakob Junis (4-8, 5.53) as their starter. After starting the season great with his new team, Patrick Corbin (7-5, 3.55) completely lost it, but now has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts and allowed one run each time, fanning at least seven. There is little reason to think the Royals will have much offense and they are 3-13 after two straight games with no home runs this season losing by 2.5 RPG. K.C. is 7-17 against the run line after a loss by four runs or more, thus, expect the Nats to go into the All-Star break on a 10-2 run and win by at least two runs. 

It's the final Battle of Ohio, look for Cleveland to take the trophy 3-1 this season. Trevor Bauer (7-6, 3.74 ERA) is not having a great season for the Indians, but what he has done well is pitch well on the road with a 2.56 ERA and his teammates are 6-3 in those appearances. Sunshine and Cincinnati have not gone together this season as the Reds are 13-25 in day games. Here is the clincher and a little known fact going back 21 years in my research; the Tribe is 18-2 in road games after three straight wins by four runs or more. Cleveland's your winner!

I cannot pass up taking the Dodgers at this number. Sure, L.A. lost last night, but they are still 60-30, an incredible 37-10 at home and 42-20 vs. RH starting pitchers. Toss in Dodger Blue is 33-7 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season, I'll happily take a money line over a RL in this spot with them.

Give credit to the Angels, they are hanging tough since the loss of Tyler Skaggs this week and won last night. However, tonight's a different story. The Angels are 13-31 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better the last two seasons, with the average loss is by 2.0 RPG. Next, let's add in they are 17-40 vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game on the season, losing by 1.6 RPG. Houston is 19-6 versus lefty starters this season and the 'Stros are 11-3 vs. the run line at Minute Maid Park facing a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start since 2017.  Put this package together and Houston has the look of run line winner!

Name two of the three best UNDER teams in baseball? If you said Cincinnati (No.1) and Cleveland (No.3) you nailed today's trivia question. (Sorry, no prizes) If you didn't know this, there are other reasons why the - Battle of Ohio - goes UNDER. Indians starter Shane Bieber is 12-4 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this season. And his team is  12-3 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse. The Reds are 12-2 UNDER after seven or more consecutive home games and a perfect 8-0 UNDER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better. Think about all those figures and the fact that both bullpens are in the Top 4 in ERA and we end up with an UNDER.

It's a given Baltimore stinks, but because the schedule is so long, they will have short bursts of playing better. The Orioles have won four of seven and send out their best pitcher,Andrew Cashner (8-3, 4.03 ERA). The team clearly believes in him, as his record is not only quite good but they are 10-6 in all his starts. Blue Jays starter Clayton Richard (1-4, 6.51) is all but washed up and Toronto is calling up minor league outfielders because of injury. Also, Cashner and the Birds are 7-2 vs. losing teams. Hold your nose and back the O's. 

Oakland is humming right now, winners of 12 of 16 and they have overtaken Texas for 2nd place in the AL West. The A's are no fluke either during this hot stretch, as they are scoring 5.8 RPG while surrendering only 3.3 RPG, for a massive differential of 2.5. Brett Anderson (8-5, 3.92) is having a solid season and against Seattle he's 9-5 with a 2.34 ERA. It's stunning to think the Mariners actually started the season 13-2 and they are 25-51 since. M's rookie Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 5.12 ERA) does not figure to be much help and the A's are 16-7 vs. LH starters this season. With Oakland 17-2 vs. teams outscored by  0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season since last year, the A's earn high marks.