The storyline is nothing more than youth vs. experience. New England has experience in spades, while the Rams have the ignorance of youth and the belief after trailing 13-0 at New Orleans, when it should have been at 20-0, they can overcome anything. At this point, one would be silly to say anything bad about the New England, as Bill Belichick has decades of football experience and the Patriots have gone with numerous old school formations and plays in the last two weeks to confuse Baltimore and Kansas City.

The Rams, their head coach Sean McVay was 16 when the B &B combination won their first Super Bowl and Jared Goff was in first grade. McVay grandfather is John McVay, who worked in the front office for the San Francisco dynasty with Joe Montana and Steve Young. Sean is a young brilliant football mind with an old soul.

Both teams made the conversion late in the season to running teams, each averaging over 39 carries per game. The Rams have the better defense in the Super Bowl and more players to make big plays. The offenses are similar in capability if not execution and will have every chance to be productive.

This has the making of a special Super Bowl and if New England wins, few will be surprised. But I'm taking Los Angeles because they have the better overall team and have more playmakers on both sides of the ball.

In this game, while experience helps, it does not always decide games. Just think back to a team called the Rams (from St. Louis), who was poised to win a second Super Bowl in three years and they lost to upstarts named Brady and Belichick. Will the cycle of life come full circle? I say YES with the Rams winning.

Doug' s Props 

Rams - Will they Score a Rushing Touchdown?  YES

Rams - Total Sacks by Defense O/U 1.5 - OVER

Rams - Total Points O/U 27.5 - OVER

How many times will the broadcast mention Sean McVay's Age O/U 1.5? (They have to actually he's 33.) OVER

How Many QB Hits will Aaron Donald Record? O/U 2.5 - OVER

New England vs. LA Rams: Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Rex Burkhard

Total Number of Different Patriots to have a Rushing Attempt (Conversions Do Not Count) (Kneel down is a Rush Attempt) O/U 5.5 - UNDER

Patriots - Will they Score a Rushing Touchdown - YES

Patriots - Total Sacks by Defense - OVER 1.5

Patriots - What will Happen First (Includes Safety)(Official Punt Only) - Taking Punt

Will any QB throw for 400 or more Yards in the game? - NO

Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game? - YES

New England vs LA Rams: Will there be a score in the first 4 mins 30 sec of the game? No

New England vs LA Rams: Total Rushing Yards by Todd Gurley -  Over 62.5

National Anthem O/U 107 seconds -  Over

In reviewing the figures, we find that Tom Brady has won 28 playoff games over a career that spans back to when Bon Jovi was singing "It's My Life". (Sort of fits right.) Patrick Mahomes, he's won the only postseason playoff game he's been in and that was last Saturday.

This matchup has been viewed from almost every conceivable angle at this point, so let's take it down to gut levels. After a season in which New England was roundly viewed as a sinking dynasty and everyone agreed that the talent is not the same as prior teams that played for the AFC championship. Just a few days after an extremely impressive performance over the Chargers, now there is outrage about Patriots being an underdog in Kansas City and Brady is not pleased about being disrespected. (Again, enough already Tom)

We all know about Brady's unparalleled success, with the same going for Bill Belichick and the playoff failures of Andy Reid. But if facts matter, the B&B combination was 3-5 SU and ATS this year on the road and in their last eight playoff games on the road or at neutral sites, they are 2-6 SU. Believe it or not, New England will not be the only team with a modified game plan from the previous contest, as Reid will have a few surprises also. And as bad as the Kansas City defense has looked at times this season, at Arrowhead, they have allowed 17.4 PPG, which is tied for 3rd in the NFL at this moment. Take the Chiefs who win by 7. 

No question Los Angeles and New Orleans looked like the best two squads in the NFC at that time and having reached this point they still are. Yet, each team is different from that last game and that will play directly into the outcome. 

After a late surge win and cover against Detroit, followed by losses to Chicago and Philadelphia, Sean McVay realized his defense was not good enough to be in shootouts every week and the loss of Cooper Kupp mattered to the passing. In winning and covering three straight the Rams have rushed the ball at least 40 times in each victory. New Orleans No.2 run defense will present a challenge, but if L.A. can just move the chains running, they can win this confrontation.

New Orleans was high-flying scoring machine 2 1/2 months ago, but with no real receiver threat outside of Michael Thomas and offensive line becoming battered at Thanksgiving, the Saints have averaged 19.1 PPG in their last six outings.

For the right to go the Super Bowl from this side of the bracket, let's take the Rams, who have taken a more aggressive defensive approach, still having an offense that can score and who is 13-3 SU on the road since last year. L.A. Outright! 

New England opened at -5 on the opening line against the L.A. Chargers, which is their smallest opening playoff game spread since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady started being in the postseason since 2001. But this is the 10th straight year New England has a playoff game, making them very familiar with the drill. The Patriots have also won their opening postseason contest a hard to fathom seven straight times. This Los Angeles bunch seems to relish playing on the road and they are 8-1, but two straight East Coast games will not be easy. As the point spread suggests, this is not a vintage New England bunch,  still, with the B & B combo in Foxborough, hard to go against this group. Pats by 6 or more. 

Rest assured, there will be a large contingent of handicappers and people reportedly in the know taking Dallas at +7 over the Rams. I will not unequivocally say they are wrong, nonetheless, I choose to disagree. Nobody knows the exact status of Todd Gurley, but if he's good enough to play, he will go. My guess is Sean McVay was not going to take any chances and wanted him close to 100 percent. The Dallas defense had more cracks in the latter part of the season and since holding New Orleans to only 10 points, they have permitted 24.6 PPG since, which is 20 percent more than their first dozen contests. Also, cannot overlook the Cowboys average 17.4 PPG on the road which was the worst of any playoff team, while the Rams were the top-scoring home team at 37.1 PPG. The Rams by at least 11. 

For the Chiefs Andy Reid, this is what a No.1 seed gets you, facing a team that is on a 10-1 run. Indianapolis is confident and ready to go looking to win three straight road games. As was mentioned here last week, the Colts running game is the key to their offense. The combination of Indy's offensive line and RB Marlon Mack is now 8-0 SU when they have 24 or rush attempts. On the season Kansas City was 27th in rushing defense and allowed 26.2 attempts per game. The Chiefs are on a 0-8 ATS playoff bowl flush and are facing the hottest team in the NFL with a better defense and a veteran quarterback.  The Colts move to 8-1 at K.C. with the upset win. 

This we get, Alabama will score on Clemson. They are too talented offensively not to with this may be the best Crimson Tide offensive team ever and certainly the finest during the Nick Saban era. However, the Crimson Tide will not go up and down the field all night on the Tigers, who will generate a lot of pressure and stall Bama drives more than they are accustomed too.

Clemson will ring up points as both teams have talented quarterbacks who deliver the ball on time and hit receivers accurately where they can catch the pigskin and run. The Tigers are capable of being just as explosive and there are a few holes Clemson can exploit in the Tide's secondary. This is what makes the total of OVER 58 attractive for college football picks.

Concerning the side going with Clemson at +6, because of the depth of their defensive line to create havoc and their ability to make big plays on offense. Clemson 33-31.

This we get, Alabama will score on Clemson. They are too talented offensively not to with this may be the best Crimson Tide offensive team ever and certainly the finest during the Nick Saban era. However, the Crimson Tide will not go up and down the field all night on the Tigers, who will generate a lot of pressure and stall Bama drives more than they are accustomed too.

Clemson will ring up points as both teams have talented quarterbacks who deliver the ball on time and hit receivers accurately where they can catch the pigskin and run. The Tigers are capable of being just as explosive and there are a few holes Clemson can exploit in the Tide's secondary. This is what makes the total of OVER 58 attractive for college football picks.

Concerning the side going with Clemson at +5.5, because of the depth of their defensive line to create havoc and their ability to make big plays on offense. Clemson 33-31.

Philadelphia as the Super Bowl champs will get a shot at defending their title. Nick Foles is once again working his late season magic and the Eagles have won five of six with the only loss at Dallas in OT.  The Philadelphia defense was in shambles after its secondary was wiped out. Coach Doug Pederson and his defensive coordinator decided there was only so much they could do. Philadelphia made a full commitment to stop stopping the run and on obvious passing downs did everything they could to help their depleted secondary with a pass rush and blitzing and they found ways to win.

The Bears are for real and as aggressive offensively and defensively as any team in the league thanks to coach Matt Nagy. The Chicago defense was No.1 in points allowed and No.3 in points allowed. On offense, Nagy understood the strengths and weaknesses of all his players and built an offense that was not total around QB Mitchell Trubisky, but about all the components and asked his QB to just execute.

While the Philadelphia story is compelling, this Chicago team is the best one playing this weekend and they handle they send the Eagles packing and win cover the spread.

There is something about Philip Rivers on the road as compared to at home that is different. There is a level of prickliness that stands out and he's edgier and even more combative. A rather strong case was being made that the Chargers were the best team in the AFC until they lost to Baltimore two weeks ago. Now, we get to take the Bolts away from home, where they are 7-1 SU and ATS in true road games and have quick, turnaround revenge in their favorite role. If you had told me Baltimore would have 467 yards of offense, including 296 yards rushing, with their defense against Cleveland, that sounds like a 17-point win over the Browns. Instead, the Baltimore barely hung on to win the AFC North. Twice, Baker Mayfield threw for over 300 yards on the Ravens and the L.A. Chargers coaches need to go to school on this, which is make quick reads and throws towards the near sidelines and use misdirection to connect down the middle of the field to soften up the Baltimore defense. Could not be more impressed with the job John Harbaugh did in transitioning the Ravens offense, however, Chargers familiarity will help and Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games.

Just four weeks ago Indianapolis went into Houston and defeated them 24-21, one week after an ugly 6-0 loss at Jacksonville. The Colts arrive back in H-Town wholly confident, being just the third NFL team since the Super Bowl era to start 1-5 and make the playoffs. Andrew Luck has been the catalyst, but first-year coach Frank Reich deserves a great deal of credit along with the GM in building an offense that Luck is most comfortable in, which features tight ends a great deal.

Houston started 0-3, then on a 9-0 tear before closing 2-2 to win the AFC South. QB Deshaun Watson has been less dynamic than he was in his rookie season, coming back from knee surgery. The Texans offense had a tendency to run hot and cold and that cannot happen against Indy or Houston is done. On defense, the Texans were 5th in fewest points but were 29th in red zone defense.

With all the bad luck the Texans have endured with injury's over at least six years, it would a nice story to finally see them win. But the Colts are riding a 9-1 streak, have the better quarterback and at this moment are the better team. The call here is with the Colts. 

We all know about Urban Meyer leaving and supposedly the players want to win the Rose Bowl for the coach. However, Washington will have a say in how this plays out. With Ohio State's offense back at full throttle, the Huskies will not be able to match points. Buckeyes win 35-24.

The first game of the new year features two excellent defensive clubs, who do a great job in limiting points. Mississippi State is 9-3 UNDER this year and 11-2 UNDER after two straight wins by 17 or more points.

N.C. State has the No.6 passing game in the country, yet struggles to run, making them one dimensional. Texas A&M has a better-balanced offense, plays better defense and faced a tougher schedule, making them the play.

All indicators are Northwestern is not as good as their 8-5 record. Nonetheless, the Wildcats hang around and are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in their last game.

Michigan State has the better defense but also has an unproductive offense. Oregon can score and move the chains but are they tough enough to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball? We will say no and Sparty wins the game.

The Cleveland and Baltimore game is more interesting than most realize. Yes, the Ravens just need a victory to win the AFC North and they are on a real roll at 5-1 SU and are at home. But just the opening spread of the Browns at +5 at Baltimore tells us Cleveland is here to play. The outcome of this matchup will really come down to the Cleveland defense and winning on third down. If they can force Lamar Jackson into third and longs more than half the time, they will have chances. Unfortunately, Baltimore believes in themselves and are confident, especially on defense. They will cause Mayfield in a couple bad decisions and take care of the rest. The Ravens by 10.

By all accounts, Detroit has given up and scored 15 PPG in their last nine starts. With the Lions 2-10 ATS versus teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play in the second half of the season since 2016, it's Green Bay by double digits.

Houston has let the No.2 seed in the AFC slide away twice. A loss against lowly Jacksonville will be would cost them the division and a home game next week. The Texans finally step up against a Jaguars team that is 4-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Houston by 10.

Simple deduction, this comes down to Alabama making three more stops, turnovers or making special teams plays. The Crimson Tide do this and that is a difference of 13 to 17 points against an overmatched Oklahoma defense. All Alabama has to do from there is hold a slight edge. The Tide rolls 52-31.

As good as the Clemson defense is, the secondary is vulnerable if the opposing team has time to pass and the quarterback is on target. Ian Book is an accurate thrower and Notre Dame has the receivers to make plays and often big ones. Defensively, the Fighting Irish can rush the passer and if they can make QB Lawrence jittery in the pocket, that can affect his accuracy. Look for Notre Dame to stay in the game, put pressure on the Tigers, who end up escaping by 7 or less.

Iowa State is not going to be intimidated by Washington State passing offense playing in the Big 12. The Cougars might not be sharp from the outset looking to overcome the disappointment of not playing for the Rose Bowl. With Mike Leach 3-8 ATS as bowl favorite, take the Cyclones and consider the UNDER with two good defensive clubs.

A bit late to the party for value, but still like this game. West Virginia failed to win the Big 12 and now will be without starting QB Will Grier who is moving on to the NFL. This is Syracuse's first bowl game in five years and could win 10 games for the first time since 2001. Add in Dana Holgorsen is 0-5 ATS as a bowler and the Orange sold all their tickets for this Orlando bowl and it's the 'Cuse who cover.

Minnesota played better defensively in their last three games, but Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin do not come anywhere close to matching the kind of speed Georgia Tech has on offense. Add in it how difficult it is to simulate the option offense the Yellow Jackets use and you can see Georgia Tech just wearing the Golden Gophers down. From what I understand the Jackets players like their coach Paul Johnson and they will look to send him into retirement a winner. With Georgia Tech 7-0 ATS against teams allowing 5.9 or more yards a play, make it the Rambling Wreck by 10. 

After scoring only 50 points on their three-game road trip, there is general media consensus that New Orleans will return home and just keep scoring 38 PPG like they did before they left the Big Easy. While the Saints might not score 16 PPG, Dallas provided the blueprint to limiting Drew Brees and the Saints by doubling Michael Thomas, stop the run on early downs and read the keys to understand when screen plays are coming. 

Pittsburgh had a gut check victory over nemeses New England last week but to keep a hold of first place in the AFC North, they could use another upset. The Steelers run defense has been improved in last three contests,  but their pass defense against teams that have what would be deemed as a professional NFL quarterback remains an issue. Pitt has to pressure Brees up the gut.  On offense, Pittsburgh does not have to run for 5 YPC, just stay on schedule at 3 to 4 to keep the chains moving and let Ben Roethlisberger do the rest.

It's hard to ignore just how good the Saints have been and they are 10-2 ATS at home off two road wins, but something is a little off and Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS this season after surrendering 99 or fewer rushing yards.

Minnesota's impressive win over Miami keeps them in the playoff hunt. Last week the Vikings ran the ball and mixed in the pass. Detroit has gotten better and against the run, but as long as Minnesota just gets three to four yards running, their passing offense can generate big plays. Detroit is averaging 15.6 PPG of late, with Matthew Stafford not playing well and not getting much help. Motivated Vikings move to 17-5 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record and win by 9.

Green Bay's season ends next week but it turns out they have motivation. The last Packers team to go winless on the road was in 1958 and that is all Aaron Rodgers and other players have been talking about, not wanting to be the first 0-8 Green Bay team away from home. It won't be easy, but it's the Pack by 7. 

Jacksonville is a complete disaster and I don't see how or why they play well at Miami. The Dolphins are not good, but they are 6-1 SU and ATS at home. The Jags have covered one game since October and it will not be two as they lost by 7 to 10 points. 

Hawai'i can score and but they are not very good on defense. Louisiana Tech is solid defensively but has issues on offense. To date in the bowls, the majority of teams with better offenses have won the bowls before Christmas and look for that to continue. I'm well aware of Skip Holtz's record as an underdog, but I don't see the Bulldogs matching points. Hawai'i by 5.

One cannot help but begin to wonder if the Los Angeles Chargers are a team of destiny, at least on the AFC side. Kansas City's defense makes them seem beatable and New England, Houston and Pittsburgh all have flaws. In terms of completeness, the Chargers have a better team than any of these clubs and as we have seen against the Steelers and against the Chiefs last week, a Philip Rivers team is NEVER out of a game. Baltimore is resembling college team with how they are running the ball. The Ravens are averaging 230.8 YPG rushing in winning four of their last five since Lamar Jackson has taken over at quarterback. And it's not just the yards but the commitment to running, with an unheard of 46+ rushing attempts to per game over this stretch. Coach John Harbaugh appears to be borrowing from former Ravens coach Brian Billick, who went to Trent Dilfer at QB in 2000 and relied on his defense and running game to win a Super Bowl. I think the Chargers win, but impossible to ignore Baltimore is 18-7-4 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in recent meetings.

Army's formula is simple, get to the edges to create big plays against Houston defense that tackles poorly and is undisciplined. Once the Black Knights establish the outside run, they can use misdirection and run the ball in the A-gaps for big plays also. The Cougars gave up 401 rushing yards to Memphis to close out the regular season and allowed well over 900 yards over the last three games. The Cougars have speed but Army has discipline which is why they have only given up 18 PPG. Houston has lacked mental toughness all year and loses by 13.

Sharp football bettors thought oddsmakers made an egregious error on the total of the Armed Forces Bowl and dropped it from 67.5 all the way down to 59.5. Since Tuesday, the number has come up a little to 60. Because of Houston's quick-strike ability and just pathetic tackling defense, the oddsmakers made a higher total. Bettors are looking at Army's No.1 time of possession offense and them permitting only 18 PPG and thought differently. While the opening total probably was too high, this adjustment is too large. Houston's defensive players allowed 36 points and 522 yards to a below average Navy squad that runs a similar offense. Though Army held Oklahoma to only 28 points this season, they did so by having the pigskin for 87 plays the Cougars defense will wear out long before then. Houston's speed on the perimeter will allow them to make enough large gains throughout the contest. Lastly, keep in mind Army is 20-9 OVER as a favorite and Houston is  17-4 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the OVER

The total in Saturday's bowl lid-lifter came down once Tigers leading rusher Darrell Henderson decided to his over 1,900 yards and 22 TD's and call it a college career and is heading to the NFL. From our perspective, we have two defenses conceding more than 31 PPG and two offenses that can generate big plays. Take the OVER.

Marshall's run game is ordinary, but the USF defensive front has been lit up way too often over the second half of the season, giving up 220 yards or more six times in the last seven games and getting destroyed for way over 300 in three of those. The Bulls are allowing over five yards per carry. USF lost their starting quarterback and Marshall defense is like attack dogs, with three or more sacks seven times this year, and oh by the way, the Bulls O-Line has permitted 34 sacks. Marshall is 11-2 ATS as a bowler and coach Holliday 5-0 SU and ATS. The Thundering Herd by at least a touchdown. 

Ohio U. opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but as game time neared, they were down to -3 or -2.5, depending on the sportsbooks. There is a belief that San Diego State's No.4 run defense will really slow Ohio's No.9 running game. With the Aztecs having allowed 214 yards to the Air Force and 199 yards to UNLV on the ground, I'm less convinced and I'll give points, especially at -3 or less. 

As the season has played out for the Dolphins, they are more lucky than good. When reviewing point differentials, here is what we mean. Here are the point differentials of the AFC's 7-6 teams.

Baltimore +80 - Indianapolis +49 - Miami -55

The Dolphins very negative number is closest to Atlanta and Tampa Bay at -51, who are 4-9 and 5-8 respectively. The Fins wins have been by an average of +5.4 PPG and their losses by -15.5 PPG.

Minnesota is far from perfect, yet, we find the Vikings are 14-5 ATS after a road loss and 14-5 ATS vs. the AFC. Miami, they are 0-7 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in four consecutive games. Let's grab the Vikes who win by 10 or more. 

With Green Bay averaging barely over 20 PPG on the road and Chicago permitting only 19 PPG anywhere they play, the total in this NFC Norris Division rivalry (Chris Berman reference) has fallen like the temps in the Windy City from 46.5 to 44.5. Over the weekend the total went back up to 46 I'm not seeing Green Bay with its O-Line problems or Chicago generating enough offense and will take the UNDER. This season when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like the Packers have lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, the UNDER is a solid 16-8.  

Let's start by saying Appalachian State is the better team, having more speed on defense and being physically stronger on both lines. If former coach Scott Satterfield was going on the sidelines, we would probably have taken App. State. But he took the Louisville job and like the coach at Utah State, they had less than two weeks to sort everything out for preparation. Let's make New Orleans the destination and the Mountaineers could be easily unfocused. Middle Tennessee faced three SEC teams this season and is not going to be intimidated by App. State. Coach Rick Stockstill's son is playing final game at QB, so you know he will be ready. The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or less and 11-3 ATS after one or more straight up setbacks. Snap up the points.

Houston has two ways they can go after first loss in 10 games, be angry about it or be meek. I'm thinking the former and their defense has the ability to overwhelm the Jets O-Line. The biggest weakness of the Texans of late is pass defense, but Gang Green is 30th throwing the ball. Despite the Jets winning last week, they were still out-gained by 120 yards. For whatever reason, the Flyboys are 1-10 ATS vs. defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards a game after 8+ contests. Plus, road favorites with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games, are 45-18 ATS, winning by 9.9 PPG. Houston by 12.

Utah State had a fantastic 10-2 season and only a loss at Boise State in their final game prevented them from playing for the MWC title against Fresno State. Take that disappoint and add coach Matt Wells leaving for Texas Tech and having the Aggies as this large a favorite adds consternation. Though North Texas had all the right peripheral numbers like a 9-3 record, all the defeats were in conference play and they never sniffed returning to C-USA title tilt. Though Utah State averaged better than 47 points a game, they were at only 34.8 PPG away from home and the Mean Green only allowed 21.8 PPG. Let's snag North Texas with the points who were the only team in the country to outgain every foe. 

Detroit is 1-5 SU and ATS in their most recent games, but they have been elevated from -1.5 to -3 point favorites at Arizona. The Cardinals are off hard to imagine upset of Green Bay but are still the lowest scoring team in the league at 14.6 PPG. However, ask yourself, does backing a team like the Lions sound good knowing they are 11-27 ATS as road faves since 1992? Did I mention the Cardinals are 8-0 SU and ATS at home vs. Detroit since 1999? Now I did, the Redbirds outright!

Denver after three wins and on a 6-1 ATS run has their game plan. The Broncos are looking to run, averaging 140.8 yards rushing in their last half dozen starts. This allows them to use play-action passes to keep the chains moving. We all realize this is not the same Denver defense that won the Super Bowl, but in their last three contests they have a +8 turnover margin and what do you know, San Francisco is -8 in turnovers in those same games. With the spread coming down, the 49ers fading and having a 4-13 ATS record off two road losses and even worse 0-7 ATS mark in home games after allowing six or more YPP in their previous game, ride the Broncos who win by 7 or more.  

Somehow the Buffalo lost last week to Miami despite outgaining them 425 to 175. That has to cause the Bills a great deal of frustration. On offense, Buffalo needs to be smart and have QB Josh Allen keep using his legs and arm to keep the Jets off balance or if New York tries to shadow Allen, get the ball to Shady McCoy in various ways. Defensively, Buffalo has only permitted 17.3 PPG in their last three outings and they are more than capable of stuffing a Gang Green offense averaging 15 PPG in their past trio of games. With the Jets 3-14 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, it's the Bills by 7. 

Not one bit surprised to see this total chopped from 53.5 to 51. Not sure if it will be Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco under center, but with how Baltimore has been running the ball at 238 YPG in last three outings and Kansas City 22nd in run defense and 31st in yards per carry allowed, this could speed up the game. The other factor is the Ravens No.1 overall defense. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER off a road game and the Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER at home after scoring 25 points or more in three straight times.

I'm of the opinion the balloon popped on Indianapolis last week. After watching Jacksonville on Thursday, it seemed the Colts more beat themselves than really losing to the Jaguars. I see plenty of so-called experts continuing to have doubts about Houston but here is the deal. The Texans are 4th in points allowed, they are averaging nearly 30 PPG in their last five contests and they are now playing with the swagger of a team that has won nine in a row. Indy is 5-17 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 130 or more rushing YPG in the second half of the season and Houston is 8-0 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. The Texans by 8 or more. 

New England is down to -7 with the Pats 2-6 SU in Dec./Jan. in Miami in last eight outings. Read reports where Patriots players are sick of coming back home and having to deal with why they cannot win in South Florida. The Dolphins won last week despite being out-gained by 250 yards, thus, that would seem to have used up quite a bit of luck. The Brady Bunch is 16-6 ATS on the road and 7-0 ATS off three or more consecutive Under's, winning by 15.3 PPG. That sound about right!

When the NFL odds were released on this AFC contest, it was not shock and awe, rather, eyebrows raised, followed by an audible "hmmm". The opening line at most sportsbooks was Houston at -7 and even after their beat down of Tennessee, by late Tuesday morning the Texans were down to -6 and the latest was -5.5. That's right, a team riding an eight-game winning streak, that gets three points for being at home is thought to be less than a field goal better than the Browns. "hmmm". In looking at my various power ratings, they have Houston winning from 6.5 to 11 points. With this, the Texans get the call and the Brownies fall to 3-14 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher.

Miami has more bad trends at home than Apple's stock at the moment and the Dolphins have dipped from -6 to -3.5 against rival Buffalo. Among the many unsavory angles for the Fins is a 16-36 ATS record after a two-game road trip and 3-13 ATS mark at home versus offensive teams averaging 4.75 or fewer yards a play. This contest could be at 3 by game time which is why to grab the Bills now.

Talk about knowing one another! This will be the fourth time these two Mountain West rivals will do battle in less than 53 weeks. The home team has won each time, covering twice. What has caught our attention is the oddsmakers line. In the game back in early November, Boise State, who normally gives four points for playing on the blue turf, was a two-point home underdog to Fresno State and won 17-14. Four weeks later the Broncos are -2.5, which is rather a large line movement, yet, still below what Boise State regularly is at home. With Fresno State 19-6 ATS the last two years and 6-0 ATS as an underdog, the Bulldogs will be your Mountain West champs as the winner!

The last five games between these bitter rivals have been determined by seven or fewer points. Texas won the first game which is why many football bettors will be backing Oklahoma thinking about revenge.  But as good as the Sooners high-scoring offense is, the defense has conceded 47.2 PPG in their last four tries and are 0-3-1 ATS in the process. And let's not forget about Texas coach Tom Herman who is 13-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 10 outright upsets. Oklahoma might well win the Big 12 title, but it will be by the skin of their teeth yet again.

Aside from one game when they lost their starting quarterback, the Mountaineers have been pounded opposing teams or played very well in putting together a 9-2 season. App. State has the No.5 scoring defense in the country and has +21.9 PPG scoring differential. One game in which they did not go all out was against Louisiana, winning just 27-17 as 26-point home favorites. While some people do not like head to head comparisons, it's hard to overlook App. State has beat teams by 36.2 PPG, while the Ragin' Cajuns are at only +5. Though the New Orleans bowl is not on everyone's wish list, hard to argue a team from West Virginia would love to spend a week in the Big Easy. App. State by 20. 

Last week I said getting out in front and trying to slow down New Orleans was a suicide mission. This week I'm bringing that back and just saying you might get hurt, but it's worth looking into. The Saints have not lost since their first game and have covered the spread nine straight times. Since suffering a very ugly loss against Tennessee, Dallas has rattled off a trio of wins and covers and jumped into a first-place tie with Washington in the NFC East. The Cowboys running game has found its footing and has averaged nearly 150 YPG (149.6) in this stretch, which has also helped Dak Prescott be a more effective thrower at quarterback. For Dallas to have a shot at beating the number, they will have to run effectively against New Orleans No.1 run defense to take advantage of their No.30 pass defense. The Cowboys defense realizes they will give up some yardage, but they will have to stand up in the red zone and force field goals attempts. Since last season, Dallas is 6-0 ATS versus defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards a game which should give them a shot.

For the Panthers, where did the offense go? Carolina totaled 40 points in the pair of defeats, with various combinations of the run game not working along with the pass offense. The Steelers and Lions both focused on stopping the run to force Cam Newton to have to throw on third and long and brought the pressure in that situation to force quick throws. The NFL odds have Carolina at -3. Back home the 'Cats average 31.6 PPG, which makes it seem that Newton and the offense will get back on track. With this, we also discovered the Panthers are 17-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite. Carolina by 7. 

This was going to be a higher-rated play but going over 10 has me down-grading this. I still think New England will be angry about last game and they have something to prove to themselves with 2-3 SU and ATS road record. Having a 10-1 ATS record as a favorite of 10 or more points the last three seasons is helpful.

USC has players, Notre Dame has a really good team. The sense in watching the Fighting Irish is they are peaking. There win at Syracuse showed no fear and the belief and willingness that they are that good to be ranked 3rd. With no conference championship, this is Notre Dame's moment and they win by 20. 

The teams play for the Territorial Cup, which is the oldest trophy in college football dating back to 1899. First-year coaches Herm Edwards and Kevin Sumlin will begin learning how blood-thirsty these Grand Canyon state fans are for their team to win and hold the bragging rights. For better than two decades this was another doesn't make sense rivalry, with the visitor and usually the underdog covering over 85 percent of the time. But like all streaks they eventually end, now the home team is trending at 5-0 SU and ATS. Back Zona! 

Since starting 0-3 against nasty competition, SMU is 5-3 SU. The Mustangs come into this game needing a victory to play in a bowl and they have the better offense and defense over Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane has two wins, one over Central Arkansas and against 1-10 UConn. Need one more reason, try my Super System: Play Against teams when the line is +3 to -3 like Tulsa, with a terrible rushing defense allowing 225 or more rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in two straight games. Betting against these teams have produced a 33-7, 82.5% record. 

In the deep south, this is known as the Battle of the Bayou. For betting purposes this one of those rivalry's you don't over think when placing a bet, just trust the numbers. That's right, skip the stats and records and trust all the clichés relating to "You can throw out the records books when these teams collide." Well not all of them. The road team in this nasty confrontation is 8-0 ATS most recently and 13-2-1 ATS going back 16 years. Just bet it, we do.

Florida International can wrap up the Conference USA East title with a victory over Marshall and initially, oddsmakers gave them the nod at -1.5, before they were flipped to +3 by the wagering masses. No question the Thundering Herd have the pedigree dating back decades ago. However, here are few betting tidbits to think about. It starts with Marshall having a 19-34 ATS record as a road favorite. That is followed by FIU coach Butch Davis being a sharp 10-5 ATS as a home underdog and the sublet of that is the Golden Panthers are 5-0 ATS under his direction. FIU wins this contest outright and advances.

In most cases, Ohio State has been equal to or better than Michigan in the past, not this time. The Buckeyes have some issues on defense, the running game is spotty and while they pass, the Wolverines can really rush the passer. This is not to say Michigan runs away with this because they Urban Meyer and Ohio State have a ton of history separately and collectively. I'll pay the juice and call for the Wolverines to win. 

This is Washington State's first 10-win season since they did so in 2001-02. As the numbers suggest, this is a far better Cougars team than usual and not as good of a Washington side. What makes this WSU team so good is their defense, listed second in the Pac-12 against the rush and third against the pass. The Washington offense has been spotty all year and against teams that currently have winning records, that have averaged just 23.2 PPG. This time the Cougars have the better team, are 10-1 ATS this season, 10-2 ATS after leading their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 8-0 ATS at home after a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wazzo by 7. 

The AAC West title is on the line in this contest.  Houston comes in ranked No. 118 in total defense and faces a Memphis offense that is averaging 51.3 PPG at home. After suffering a lull in the middle of the season, the Tigers are on the prowl and on a 3-0 SU and ATS run. On the tech side, the Cougars are 3-11 ATS off a home win while Memphis is a sparkling 9-1 ATS in last 10 November contests. The Tigers by 14.

Dallas is off two impressive road wins as an underdog. Washington is using a backup QB, a group of backup offensive linemen and has a few playmakers going up against the No.3 scoring defense in the NFL. The Redskins defense was doing an excellent job against the run but not anymore, allowing 132 YPG in the last three outings after being under 90 previously. I 100 percent realize the Dallas is a lousy home favorite, but they are also 10-2 ATS off two consecutive road wins and win by double digits. 

I liked the Lions anyways before the news of M. Tribusky. I considered this like an NBA, NHL or the NFL game, the quick turnaround fresh in your mind off a loss. Detroit played like garbage for a half at Chicago and that was just 11 days ago. In the NFL, that's as fresh as it gets. Look for the Lions to be hunting for bear (pun clearly intended), and bring the energy against a Bears team off a big win and on a short week on the road and win outright. 

Make no mistake, the Bears are a good football team, but they have only faced two teams currently over .500. Minnesota will play it smart and won't expose quarterback Kirk Cousins and the offensive line to too much pressure from Khalil Mack and Chicago's pass rushers. The Vikings will look to use Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray on quick hitters to run the ball. Cousins will use the short passing game to slow the pass rush and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are potent running after the catch. Mitchell Trubisky is due for a multiple turnover game and the Vikings defense is capable of producing it. This will be a grinder, but the Vikings win by three or less. 

There is a lot talk about Denver off a bye and they will be ready for the Chargers on the road. But I find the Broncos are 7-16 ATS the last two years and if they have given up 99 or fewer rushing yards in back to back games, they are 1-9 ATS. The Chargers might be the most complete team in the AFC right now and the defense has allowed 13.2 PPG in their previous five games. I'm not having it, the Bolts by a dozen.

Detroit cannot stop the run, the Panthers are 3rd in running the ball. The Lions are struggling with pass protection and Carolina has a front four that is disruptive. This might have been a game Carolina might have taken lightly, but after losing by 31 to Pittsburgh close down that idea. Carolina is a solid  26-13 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games, while Detroit is 2-15 ATS against teams who commit one or less turnovers a game in the second half of the season. Cats by 8.

Houston has won six in a row in this battle of first place teams. After years of horrible health luck, the Texans are holding up and added Demaryius Thomas to take the place of Will Fuller to help Deshaun Watson. That is something the entire team notices about a commitment to winning. Washington has taken Houston place for injuries and they have them everywhere. That is why Houston has a decisive edge against the battered Redskins O-Line. Consider Washington could only score 30 points against crummy defenses like Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The Texans hit a few big plays, limit what Alex Smith can do and Houston improves to 18-6 ATS vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or higher. Texans by 7.

Andrew Luck has been amazing, the Colts offensive line and tight ends have been sensational and the defense has held up. We have all heard Luck has never lost at home to Tennessee, until Sunday. Marcus Mariota is healthy and confident. Both the offensive and defensive line are capable of dominating and this is a very physical football team that is all too aware of past failures in Indy. All three of my power ratings have the Titans winning, I concur.

Because Oregon gets five points for being at home, oddsmakers are telling us they think Arizona State has the better team. I'm not sure about that, especially in Eugene. I give coach Edwards all the credit in the world, I never thought he could make the Sun Devils even an average team. But last week ASU played with expectations and barely beat UCLA at home and those expectations of knowing of two more wins places them in the Pac-12 championship. With the Devils 15-30 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 and 2-11 ATS in road games after a win by three or fewer points, the Ducks waddle to a nine-point win.

Central Florida has not lost in almost two complete seasons. During the regular season, the Knights have only played teams that had to score to challenge them or those they were completely superior to. Though UCF played Cincinnati last year and blasted them 51-23, the comparison is in name only. This Bearcats team is 9-1 with their only loss in OT at Temple. This Cincinnati squad is physical on both sides of the ball and has more than enough speed to keep up with the Knights. ESPN Game Day is going to Orlando and this is the featured ABC telecast. Do not expect the Bearcats to have any sort of stage fright, as Cincy is 12-6 ATS as conference road dogs. All the pressure is on UCF and keep in mind they beat USF and Memphis by only seven points apiece to close last season. This is a three-point game either way.

Tennessee fans are still acting like it's 1996 to 2006 when they still mattered nationally. Four head coaches later (one interim), Vols fans were ready to cut bait on new head coach Jeremy Pruitt after a 3-5 start and four blowout losses to superior teams talent-wise. While defeating Charlotte and Kentucky is not going to raise an eyebrow in Knoxville, if they upset a solid Missouri club, that means extra practices and a bowl game, which is what coach Pruitt wants as he starts building his program. This would also be a great way for the Tennessee senior's to go out after nothing but tumultuous season's. Missouri got their bowl berth last week against Vanderbilt at home and has more natural rivalry game next week with Arkansas to get the juices flowing. The Vols bring the passion and send the home fans happy at least for one night.

As the season has gone on, Nebraska has gotten better and Michigan State, especially on offense, has gotten dramatically worse. The Cornhuskers have won two straight and covered five in a row and can score on anybody. The Spartans are averaging 19.3 PPG in conference and while I expect them to surpass that total, they are not built for shootouts. Understand this, when the line is +3 to -3 and a team like Michigan State has gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, they are 6-25 ATS when this all comes together. The Children of the Corn will be on streaks of 3-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. 

Northwestern is 0-4 outside the Big Ten, yet won the West Division with two weeks to play. Not exactly sure what that means but if we follow the Wildcats we will learn. While coach Pat Fitzgerald will preach continual improvement for his Northwestern team, the players know they are playing for the Big Ten championship regardless of how they play at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are another strange Big Ten squad. One week after losing to Illinois and giving up 55 points, which led to firing defensive coordinator, Minnesota inexplicably holds Purdue to 10 points in 48-10 rout, crushing any chance for them to win their division. It's Senior Day for the Gophers and a victory means a bowl game, thus, motivation is a key component in this clash. Yes, we realize the Wildcats are 11-3 ATS on the road and we also realize Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as a double-digit underdog. Minny by 6.

Kent State stinks as 2-8 record shows but they are getting some run because they are 6-4 ATS and 3-0 ATS at home. The Golden Flashes have flashed from +14 to +11.5 against Toledo. My question is can Kent State score enough to keep pace with the Rockets? I don't think they will and found out the Flashes are 7-23 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game.

Let's begin with the obvious, Philadelphia is home off a bye week and Dallas is on the road having played on Monday. In breaking the game down further, Dallas remains limited offensively for a variety of reasons. It starts with the offensive line. For a period of about five years, the Cowboys had the premier offensive line in the NFL. They might not have been No.1 in various graders eyes each and every year, but they were in the Top 3 the entire time. Age and injuries have lowered the Dallas O-Line to where it is now considered just above average. Even with Amari Cooper, Cowboys lack in consistent playmakers and with Dak Prescott more under pressure with a lesser running game and receivers who cannot create separation, that limits Dallas. Philadelphia has felt the effects of being a Super Bowl champion. But the bye week has to be a large help and allow the coaches to find ways to improve the offense. The Eagles are not going to repeat as champions but they are nicely positioned to repeat as NFC East champions. Look for them to beat Dallas by 10 or more.

Matt Ryan is hot and has the weapons to put up points on a banged up Cleveland defense that surrendered 33.8 PPG in their previous four outings. Along that same line, Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games 3-13 ATS in home games after two straight losses by 14 or more points. Atlanta by 13. 

Nobody would have guessed at the beginning of the season Jacksonville would be an underdog in this AFC South showdown. But the Jaguars to this point have morphed into the teams from earlier in this decade and are making a lot of mistakes. Indianapolis has some real positives and there are those who think they might even become a playoff team. For my money, the week off will help Jacksonville refocus and with L. Fournette back, the running game should pick up, which makes B. Bortles a better quarterback. In addition, the Jags defense, though underperforming, matches up well with Colts offense. In this contest, underdogs having been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 ATS, winning by two points a game. The Jaguars outright.

South Florida has been exposed as a fraud, losing by more than 20 points twice after a 7-0 start. With USF having allowed almost 294 YPG on the ground on average over their past four games. Cincinnati should have no troubles getting their average of 236 or quite possibly more. The Bearcats real strength is its defense and while the Bulls will put up a fair amount of points, Cincy is 8-0 ATS off a blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival and wins by 21. 

Late info, plus, conference road favorites (LA MONROE) who are an average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G), going against a team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, are 37-11 ATS, winning by 16.7 PPG. 

Iowa was in position to beat both Penn State and Purdue on the road and failed to do so. That left them two games behind first place Northwestern in the Big Ten West Division and giving them almost no hope of reaching the conference title game. While we expect the Hawkeyes to be geared up back at Iowa City, the passion is not likely to sustain with little to play for. Northwestern has everything to play for and they hold the tie-breakers over Wisconsin and Purdue, their closest competitors. The Wildcats are in their best role, a road underdog.  The 'Cats are 28-15 ATS as a road dog catching and 7-0 ATS in away games after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards a play in their previous contest. Iowa by 1. 

Duke is 6-3 on the season but three of those setbacks have occurred in the Blue Devils past five games. Duke has been out-gained in each of their past five outings and that is seldom a mark of a team that is going to cover 10 or more points. North Carolina is hardly a charming proposition at 1-7 and 3-4 ATS. However, being just eight miles from Durham, the Tar Heels do bring some positives. Namely, they are 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive losses and 5-1 ATS as an underdog. The Heels are also 11-2 SU at Duke and 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in three games in a row. Duke by only 6. 

Kansas State has basically owned Kansas at 22-4 SU record and 18-8 ATS mark. That includes an 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS mark at home. Kansas earlier this season ended their long road losing streak, but it still continues in the Big 12, where they are 0-43 (13-29-1 ATS), last winning in 2008. Since the day Bill Snyder arrive at the Little Apple, beating Kansas has been a priority. K-State by 17. 

After losing to Georgia, Florida was primed to finish 10-2 and play in a New Year's Day bowl. Evidently, they did not know they actually had to play and win those games to accomplish that, as they were mauled by Missouri in Gainesville 38-17. The Gators lack strong quarterback play and dangerous playmakers. Their defensive front seven is smallish and looks to be wearing down. South Carolina's last four contests have been decided by 12 total points and the Gamecocks have won three of them. At this juncture, South Carolina players believe they can stay in any contest and Florida is 2-12 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. A three-point game either way. 

I'm smelling blowout city with Louisville at Syracuse. The Cardinals players have given up some time ago and a coaching change is coming. Louisville is 1-8 ATS this season and 3-12 ATS under B. Petrino 3-12 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG. The Cards are also 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 425 or more YPG. Let's make the final score 49-20, Orange. 

When you break down the standard numbers with these teams, you have two weak offenses going up against two underrated defenses. Dallas has played well at home this season at 3-0 and 2-1 ATS but history shows them at 15-31 ATS as a home favorite. Tennessee is only 1-3 SU on the road, but 2-2 ATS and the margin of the losses had been -1.5 PPG. The Titans have lost three straight but are 13-4 ATS off one more setbacks and with Marcus Mariota having two weeks off to get healthier, I'm forecasting a three-point outcome either way. 

This nonconference clash will be one of the more enthralling contests of Week 9 because of how the teams are playing. The Chargers arrive in Coffee Town on a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS) with a pair of blowouts and two victories by three points. Seattle dropped their first two games of the year, but made changes in their offensive style of play and have won four of five with the only setback by two points to the 8-0 L.A. Rams. For this game I am looking at a red hot Seahawks running game that is averaging 173 YPG in their past four games. Against the three-best running offense the Chargers have faced they have allowed 155.6 YPG. This allows Pete Carroll's crew to control the tempo, keep the defense fresh and Philip Rivers on the sidelines. Seattle is a tough place to win for those who seldom visit and the Seahawks are 6-point winners. 

Pittsburgh lost the first game and is revenge-mode. At this time, the Steelers have found themselves on both sides of the ball. Baltimore looked poised to be a contender, but they have turned into frauds playing against better teams. When the spread is +3 to -3 and teams like the Ravens playing a conference game have gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, they are 7-22 ATS, losing by 3.6 PPG. Pitt wins! 

Not exactly the perfect week to fire your coach and OC with Kansas City coming. Even if you include Baltimore somehow scoring only nine on Cleveland, in their last five games the Browns are allowing 30.1 PPG. That is not a good number going up a Chiefs offense that averages 36.2 PPG and 36.7 PPG on the road. With Cleveland 2-12 ATS vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher and K.C. 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game, it's the Chiefs by 14.

The Lions traded G. Tate which signifies they are not serious about winning. The Detroit run defense is last in the NFL so expect a heavy dose of L. Murray. Minnesota realizes this is a big game with Chicago playing Buffalo. The Vikings are 20-8 ATS as a home favorite, 14-4 ATS  having won two out of their last three games and 14-5 ATS playing against a team with a losing record. Vikes by 9. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick had another great showing as a relief pitcher last week. But as a starter, Fitz usually shows why he's played with eight different teams. The Tampa Bay defense is 32nd in points allowed and 29th in total defense. Carolina leads the NFL in with 28 explosive rushing plays (12 or more yards) this season. If the Bucs have to worry about the run, Cam Newton can go over the top for big passing plays. When teams like the Panthers are off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers,  against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse, they are 25-5 ATS. Carolina by 17. 

The Cal Bears have a really good defense. That's good. The Bears also have a well below average offense. That's bad going against Washington State. The only two teams California has scored more than 24 points against are Idaho State and Oregon State. The Cougars are 100 percent legit and 7-0 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games and 7-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total YPG over their last three outings. The Cougs by 17. 

After losing three of four, Mississippi State played a quality game and beat a solid Texas A&M crew. That win satisfied bettors enough that they have pushed the bell-clangors from -19.5 to -23 against Louisiana Tech. At this point not saying that is wrong, but coach Skip Holtz road dog teams are 13-6 ATS. Plus, these SEC Bulldogs have Alabama on tap. L.T. covered at LSU earlier this year and road teams after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS. Miss. State wins but by 17 or less. 

Florida was pushed around by a stronger Georgia team last week. But a look at the Gators schedule the rest of the way finds four winnable games that should provide the motivation to finish 10-2. Motivation should not be an issue for Florida since they lost 45-16 at Missouri last year. The Tigers are a disappointing 0-4 in the SEC (0-3-1 ATS) and are running out of reasons to press on. In addition, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points having lost two out of their last three games, against an opponent having won four out of their last five games are 15-37 ATS. Gators by 20.

Purdue's hot streak ran cold in a loss at Michigan State and they will have to match wits with another physical football team this week in Iowa. The Hawkeyes were going in for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter at Penn State when a receiver made a mistake which led to an interception at the goal line. With a matchup versus Northwestern next and two winnable closing games, Iowa needs this victory to have a chance to win the Big Ten West. With the Hawkeyes 34-14 ATS off a road loss and 27-12 ATS if it happened at conference school, Iowa wins outright.

UMass lost their starting quarterback and he's been a big part of their offense. With Ford out for UMass, Liberty has the better offense and they are well coached by Turner Gill. Two things to know about the Flames, they are 11-2 ATS as underdogs and if you drill down they are 9-1 ATS as road dogs. Liberty by 5. 

These are the two lone unbeaten teams in the AAC East and something has to give. We know that Central Florida continues to be an outstanding squad for a second straight year and has a point differential of 26.3 PPG. Temple's season looked over after starting 0-2, both home losses. Playing at Maryland seemed like another defeat, but they dominated 35-14 and are 5-1 and 6-0 ATS since. The Owls average better than two turnovers a game and if they do that in Orlando, they are toast. But if Temple plays physical defense and keeps the game in the 20's, they will move to 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive wins against the spread.

If you know anything about Aaron Rodgers, he loves being counted out. Green Bay might have as tough a slate four of a next five weeks as any team will have all season and Rodgers has made mention of the that a few times. While this seems impossible to slow down the Rams, the Packers are 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. It might not make sense but it's the NFL and Pack ends up losing by six or less. 

The Colts being ridden from -1.5 to -3 at Oak-Town is not so much a play on Indianapolis, but rather against the Raiders. Oakland is a mess and Jon Gruden might have a long term view, but the older players want to win today, not in three years. Coach Frank Reich of the Colts does not have a great deal of talent on his roster, but they play hard all four quarters. It is hard to overlook Oakland is 10-23 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less. Indy by 6.

Seattle turned the corner once they decided to become a running team and let the offensive line block, instead of relying on R. Wilson to do everything. This has made the Seahawks a better team and improved their defense with not as many three and outs by the offense. Detroit has gone thru a similar transformation, but there is still something still unsettling about the Lions. Detroit made a trade to beef up their weak run defense but will the impact be immediate? Plus, let's not lose sight of the fact the Lions are 16-39 ATS after having won three out of their last four games and 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win. Seahawks outright!