This AL East total is about what you want to believe. These teams are 14-3 OVER this season, 21-5 OVER the last three years at Yankee Stadium and 44-11 OVER since 2017. If you look at the starting pitchers, John Means (5-2 UNDER road record) and Domingo German (9-1 UNDER home record) you could be swayed to think the total rising from 10 to 10.5 might be a mistake. However, the history says lots of runs and both bullpens where used extensively in yesterday's doubleheader and home plate ump Marvin Hudson is 14-7 OVER this season.

When thinking about the Texas Rangers, one aspect you never ponder is them winning a 1-0 game, home or away, yet, this is what they did Monday in Cleveland. Those betting baseball are certain that won't happen again and they have pushed the total from 10 to 10.5 with Ariel Jurado (6-6, 4.92) taking on the Indians Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.41). While a case could be made for such an outcome, Texas is 7-0 UNDER after four or more consecutive wins this season and the Tribe is 15-3 UNDER revenging a loss where they scored one run or less. 

New York has won seven straight and in the process has allowed 2.0 RPG. One contributor is Steven Matz who has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and who is capable of containing a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 3.9 RPG vs. LH starters. Been a big Trevor Williams fan over the years but he's really struggled since coming off the IL. However, he's starting to come around in permitting four earned runs in his last two starts and he is 31-15 UNDER the last two years. With the average total score of 6.9 totals runs in the Mets winning streak, I'll go low and say UNDER.

One can only imagine what kind of record Jacob deGrom (6-7, 2.86) record would have the last two years on a good team. The Mets deGrom has been almost unhittable of late with a silly 0.47 ERA, with 25 K's, 7 W's and 13 hits allowed in 19 innings. With the White Sox averaging 2.0 RPG in there last seven, hard to think they will keep the scoreboard operator busy. Lucas Giolito's (11-5, 3.52) ERA number has climbed after a fantastic start. He was hammered for seven runs in his last start, but he's bounced back each time he's had a poor showing this season. The average total score of the Mets last eight contests is 7.5 and with these starters, this has the feel of a 4-2 or 4-3 outcome and I'll back the UNDER.

For this one, I'm relying on numbers for this AL Central encounter. I have two game systems that are calling for an UNDER, one has a total score of 7.9 runs and the other 8.1. In part how they arrived at those figures is Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger has a 1.88 ERA in his past four starts, pitching more like he did last since coming off the IL. Clevinger against Kansas City is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) and is backed up the No.1 bullpen in baseball. The Royals Glenn Sparkman (3-6, 4.67) is not on anyone's fantasy MLB list, but at 'The K' (home park), he has a 1.76 ERA, with an even lower 1.03 ERA in five starts there. Go UNDER.

Washington goes for the four-game sweep of Colorado today. The Rockies have scored three times in D.C. thus far and it's hard to think they will have a lot of success against Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.30 ERA), who's in the midst of a scintillating 7-0 run with an 0.84 ERA during a nine-game stretch. Colorado will start Jeff Hoffman (1-3, 6.75) and while they could knock him around, Washington only scored five runs yesterday in the double-header sweep and with a day after playing two, the Nats hitters could be a little arm weary. The Nationals come in 15-3 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times game in the second half of the season and the Rocks are 8-0 UNDER in road games after two straight games with no home runs. 

Houston is on fire again and while the offense is averaging over 7 RPG in their six-game winning streak, they are allowing 2.0 RPG in the same stretch. The Astros Wade Miley (8-4, 3.25 ERA) can contain the Oakland offense and he has a 1.86 ERA at home this season. Mike Fiers (9-3, 3.61) after a slow start has pitched extremely well and is 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a .197 opponents' batting average over his past 13 starts dating back to his May 7. Further research finds the A's s 10-2 UNDER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better and Houston 10-2 UNDER in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better this season. 

Oddsmakers have stubbornly posted 10.5's and an 11 in this series and all three games have been UNDER's. Today we have another 10.5 for the series finale and the sense is another lower scoring game is on tap. We'll begin with the A's Daniel Mengden (4.21 ERA) has an ERA of 1.96 on the road this season. Next, we'll follow with the Twins Michael Pineda (4.38 ERA), whose slider is really working with a 1.50 ERA in his past three starts (18 innings), fanning 20 and walking only three. Oakland comes into this contest 13-4 UNDER vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game, while Minnesota is on an 8-1 UNDER run and is 7-0 UNDER vs. winning teams. 

It appears Cleveland's Mike Clevinger is hitting his stride in conceding only one run in his last two starts, which covered 11 innings. Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (3-8, 3.59 ERA) carries a 7.07 ERA in three starts against the Indians into Wednesday's game and despite this, the total has dipped from 9.5 to 9. However, the Tigers have not scored a single run for Turnbull in that trio of starts and probably won't score much either tonight in Cleveland. Let's look at the UNDER with Turnbull 12-5 UNDER for the year and the Indians 11-2 UNDER at home after five or more home games this season.

Writeup coming

Name two of the three best UNDER teams in baseball? If you said Cincinnati (No.1) and Cleveland (No.3) you nailed today's trivia question. (Sorry, no prizes) If you didn't know this, there are other reasons why the - Battle of Ohio - goes UNDER. Indians starter Shane Bieber is 12-4 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game this season. And his team is  12-3 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse. The Reds are 12-2 UNDER after seven or more consecutive home games and a perfect 8-0 UNDER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better. Think about all those figures and the fact that both bullpens are in the Top 4 in ERA and we end up with an UNDER.

We are just past the halfway point of the season, but Tampa Bay is slipping further behind the Yankees in the AL East and their wild card slot is becoming more precarious with Oakland charging. The betting action is on the total, lowered from 9 to 8.5 in the clash. Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.74) will take on rookie Brendon McKay (1-0, 0.00) who is making his second start with six innings of one-hit pitching. McKay is listed as a "can't miss" prospect and Tanaka is 10-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 17 career starts against the Rays. Not backing the line movement, with the Yankees 11-3 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and Tampa Bay 22-7 OVER after conceding eight or more runs.

Max Scherzer's (6-5, 2.62 ERA) record might not indicate it, but he's getting back on track with typical performances, having lowered his ERA a full run in the last five weeks. Mad Max starts for Washington tonight and he will face Marlins right-hander Trevor Richards (3-7, 3.54), whose also pitched better than his record. With Miami last in scoring in the majors at 3.5 RPG, the total has dipped from 7.5 to 7. On the surface hard to argue with a tumbling total, however, Scherzer is 11-2 OVER on the road when the total is 7 or less and the Fish are 17-6 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better.

Seattle left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (3-4, 4.99 ERA) has an ERA over 14 in his last three starts and he's facing a Minnesota lineup that No.1 in baseball in scoring runs against lefty's at 6.9 RPG. The Twins Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.34) is not fooling many batters either as the numbers show. No question 10 is a big number at Target Field, but Mariners are 12-3 OVER vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game and 10-2 OVER when the total is 10 or higher this season. Toss in Kikuchi is 11-1 OVER this year and Pineda is 21-9 OVER vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more homers a game, expect a minimum of 11 runs to be scored.

The total is going down with Ivan Nova (3-5, 6.24) facing Homer Bailey (4-6, 6.05) in this AL Central showdown! WTF! Yes, it's true, bettors have lowered the total from 10 to 9.5 and unless there is snowstorm going thru Kansas City on Friday night, I'm taking the Over. Of course, I know the Royals are scoring 2.4 RPG in their last seven and I'm fully aware when these two hurlers met in Chi-Town on May 27th the White Sox won 2-1. Screw it, don't care! Nova's 10-1 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record and K.C is 11-1 OVER revenging a one-run loss.

Former Mariner Michael Pineda (2-3, 5.85 ERA)  is a shell of his former self. He still strikes out batters with regularity but his WHIP of 1.45 tells the story of a hurler whose allowed 49 hits in only 40 innings, 10 of which have left the yard. One guess who is second in the majors in home runs this season? That's correct, Seattle, the team Pineda is facing. The M's Eric Swanson (1-4, 6.35 ERA) does not miss many bats either and Minnesota is averaging 6.0 RPG in away outings and is 3rd in the bigs in home runs. The Mariners are 12-4 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season and 9-1 OVER when they are off two or more victories. Toss in Pineda is 20-7 OVER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150, the Twins and Mariners are going OVERboard. 

How game goes UNDER is pretty simple to answer. If we have conservative play, nerves and two netminders with their A-game, the people in charge of turning on the goal lights will not have much to do. In such an important conflict, it's about executing the basics and playing to strengths. These are defense-first teams with goalies that have helped carry them to this point. This season Dallas is 8-2 Under in road games after allowing four goals or more and St. Louis is 10-2 Under off an away win by two goals or more this season. For NHL picks, cannot even fathom six goals being scored and see someone advancing by a 2-1 or 3-1 score, making the Under the bet.

Former Yankee Michael Pineda (2-2, 6.21 ERA) is trying to resurrect/save his career and landed in the Twin Cities. The oft-injured 30-year old right-hander is a shell of the pitcher he was in Seattle. Never one to really get into shape, some of Pineda's calamities have been self-induced. This season, besides permitting 37 hits in only 29 innings, his strikeouts are down from one per inning career-wise to only 22 thus far.

Domingo German for the Pinstripes is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA, but other the L.A.A. Angels, who only recently started scoring, every other team German has faced is in the bottom half of offense in the American League. Minnesota is in the Top 5 in scoring at 5.4 RPG. Next, take the Twins offense and mesh it with the Yankees who are 5.3 RPG, who are taking on a former teammate and total of Ov8.5(-120) looks in serious jeopardy. When Pineda has pitched the last three years, he's 17-6 Over with the average score 11.2 total runs, while the Twinkies are 8-2 Over facing right-handed starters. For MLB picks, we'll say these clubs go to 8-3 Over at Yankee Stadium since 2017.

This season when the Sharks have played in a contest where the total is 5.5 they are 9-2 Over. This will be only the third contest since Jan. 8th in which a total came up this low with San Jose involved. Plus, let's not forget the Sharks are 25-10 Over after one or more Under's, 10-2 Over after playing a game where four or fewer total goals were scored, and a perfect 6-0 Over on home ice in the playoffs. With the Avalanche 23-12 Over facing opponents that permit three or more goals a game, expect more scoring to return in San Jose. 

For this total, let's begin with the Snakes Robbie Ray  (1-1, 4.18 ERA) who can walk the park too often and who has 5.77 ERA against Colorado. The Rockies will counter with a Tyler Anderson (0-2, 11.34) whose surrendered at least five runs in each start and has given up six home runs in 16 2/3 innings. Colorado comes home hot after hanging a pair of 11's at Miller Park and Anderson is 12-3 OVER as an underdog of +100 or higher. To polish this off, Arizona is 17-7 OVER when playing with a day off. Take the Over.

In the second tilt of this four-game set, the total is 8.5, with the Padres starting rookie Chris Paddack (1-1, 1.67) against the veteran Braves right-hander Julio Teheran (2-3, 5.40). Paddack's incredible ERA for a rookie is only surpassed by opposing batters hitting a measly .112 against him. Teheran never turned into the ace Atlanta thought they had with his penchant for leaving too many pitches in the strike zone and missing his target by four to six inches too frequently. Add the number of hits allowed (33 in 31.2 innings) along with 17 free passes and that explains the ERA and WHIP (1.57).

Yet, in Teheran's last three home starts against the Padres, all wins, he conceded four runs in 19 innings. With the Friars batting .223 on the road, the Braves righty is 10-2 Under at home vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. San Diego is only scoring 3.6 RPG against RH starters and Atlanta is 22-6 Under after scoring and allowing three runs or less in their last outing. Let's grab the Under.

The MLB odds for tonight have a total of 9.5 and that might not be enough for a lot of reasons. For example, the starting hurlers are Aaron Brooks (2-2, 5.33 ERA) for the A's and Rick Porcello (1-3, 7.43) for Boston. As you can see, neither pitcher is missing many bats. Of the 26 hits Brooks has allowed in 27 innings, a half dozen have cleared the fence, that's not good. Porcello won the Cy Young in 2016 and to date been dreadful. He showed a few signs of turning his season around in picking up his first win in his last outing against Detroit, going six innings and permitting three runs. Otherwise, 23 innings, 34 hits surrendered and 15 walks, for a scornful WHIP of 2.13.

With both bullpens merely middle of the road on the season and worse in their respective home/road scenarios, for MLB picks the Over is too inviting. This is further backed by Oakland at 9-0 Over after two or more road games this season and Porcello 21-7 Over vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse.

Unless these teams are arm weary from swinging the bats from yesterday twin-bill, pitchers K. Gibson and D. Bundy both have ERA's over 7 thus far. These starters also have ERA over 5 against the other team and Minnesota is averaging 7.2 RPG on the road and Baltimore 5 RPG at home.

Basketball bettors will be interested to watch some or all of this his contest after Golden State's historic collapse. Nonetheless, it is the total where the action is, down three points to 234. It would seem it's a given the Warriors defense will be ready to play and they are 10-2 UNDER after a loss by six points or less and 12-3 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss, with the overall average total score about 217.

Because of how suffocating the defenses can be, each coach has focused on creating more pressure in the offensive and shot attempts have gone up in every game. (61-65-70) The thinking is this could lead a few defensive breakdowns and the last three goals Monday were in direct correlation to that occurring. With Dallas now trailing in the series and playing at home, not sure they want to play as fast with the worst offensive group in the postseason and they could well play it closer to the vest Wednesday. With the Stars 13-4 Under after consecutive setbacks and 35-15 Under against teams scoring 2.85+ goals per game, somebody wins Game Four 2-1 and this confrontation goes Under 5. 

Milwaukee's offense at home continues to be sensational, averaging 6.9 RPG, after batters St. Louis pitching for 10 and 8 runs so far in this series. They probably will not have as much success against the Redbirds Michael Wacha, whose 5.28 is attributed to one bad outing. However, the ways Brewers are swinging the lumber, if Wacha continues to give up four walks a start, they will take advantage of the situation. Brew Crew starter Corbin Burnes (10.05) has given up nine HR's in just over 14 innings, with eight coming on fastballs. The Cards are 23-9 OVER when having lost three of four and 32-13 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150.

This Western Conference series was supposed to be low scoring and this will be the third straight total of 5, and thus far we are 1-0-1 in terms of predictive accuracy. With the teams struggling mightily to even find scoring chances, let alone goals, we'll side with the UNDER, with Dallas 9-1 UNDER after allowing two goals or less in three straight games this season. 

The total in the second game on Saturday has dipped three points to 213. This season the teams were 3-1 Under, with totals ranging from 207 to 218.5. Though the defense is expected to pick up come playoff time, Orlando has played seven OVER's in a row and Toronto has no problem playing faster. Given the spread of around 8, let's go OVER with the Raptors a 113-105 winner.

Expect Corey Kluber to bounce back and Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann is not this good, but he's in one of his early season zones. Both offenses are under 3.5 RPG and both bullpens have been very sharp with ERA's under 2.90. With the Tribe 17-6 UNDER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs a game, backing the UNDER. 

Houston is averaging 2.2 runs a game and headed into Game 2 of their series with Oakland.

The Athletics have done more on offense in averaging 3.9 RPG, but their pitching has been exceptional in permitting only 3.1 RPG.

Houston's Wade Miley gave up three runs in his first start over six innings and since last year, he's saved/revitalized his career as a starting pitcher. His magic formula at 31 years of age a year - The Cutter. If Miley was right-handed, he might have been out of baseball. Instead, he gained trust in the cutter and its created doubts in hitter's mind about his other pitches and he's now more effective.

Oakland's Aaron Brooks was sharp in six shutout innings, giving up only two hits while fanning a half dozen. Brooks might not be that effective, but with the Astros lumber not working and Miley with 1.64 ERA against the Athletics, we'll call for the Houston to move to 32-15 UNDER in April home games since 2015.

The CIT championship is on the line, but the real betting action is on the total, lowered three points to 168. Both these teams score a lot of points, as each is over 80 PPG. However, the reason for the total crumbling is the defenses are playing as well as they have all year, which is why they are playing for the title and this will be why this contest will be an UNDER.

The total for this highly anticipated affair is up to 151. Given that each squad has played the vast majority of their game going Under the number, when one learns these clubs are on a 4-0 Over move against each other, any sports bettor wants to hit the pause button and do more research. Though the series matchup suggests a higher scoring affair, with Duke living on the edge (of the rim) and possibly not at full strength again, that is cause for concern. Plus, when these two are off SU triumph's, the Blue Devils are 21-8-2 Under and Sparty is 27-10-1 Under.

Brown plays like the color of the uniforms home and away,  completely different. At home, the Bears average 80.9 PPG. On the road, they are nearly the opposite at 66.5 PPG. Defensively, each team does good work in defending well with Brown at 41.4% and LMU at 41.9%. Dress up the Bears as a road underdog and they are 11-1 Under. And if Loyola Marymount is off a contest in which they permitted 55 or fewer points, they are 7-0 Under. 

San Diego, there is a good reason why they play twice as money Under's as compared to Over's (22-11). The Toreros are deliberate on offense and play good defense, especially when they are in their zone, which normally takes time off the clock they generate a lot of so-so shot attempts late in the shot clock.

Though basketball coaches are mostly completely unaware of point spreads unless it can be used as a motivational tool, it's not lost in our line of work that San Diego is 12-3 Under after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Memphis also fits some trendy talk with a 13-4 Under mark at home having won three of their last four contests. Finish this off with the Tigers on a 6-0 Under run. 

It is not surprising in the ACC to see the total crumble in this encounter from 146.5 to 143. Because of Duke's defense, they are 19-7 UNDER. The Blue Devils are also 8-1 UNDER having won three of their last four and an impressive 16-2 UNDER after two triumphs by 10 or more points. Virginia Tech has labored to score since losing a couple key players and are on an 8-2 UNDER run. Backing the lower figure. 

With the Blues on a 7-3-1 Under ride and Dallas the top Under team in the NHL and 11-2 UNDER after playing a game where seven or more total goals were scored this season, not hard to imagine where what we are taking.  

Both these AAC teams are known for defense and factor in head to head competition with the two teams 9-1 UNDER, which includes the last five in a row. In fact, only once in ten contests have they surpassed 128 points in their meetings, making the UNDER seem rather safe.

When these two get together, it is incumbent upon Columbus to not allow Tampa Bay to control the pace of the game and make it an end to end sprint. The Jackets have been largely successful in making this occur and these clubs are 21-8-1 Under. Of late, coach John Tortorella's club has made this work on home ice with an 8-2 Under mark. Not unexpectedly, the Lightning is favored with the kind of season they are having and the last six times they are listed as road faves, they are 5-1 Under and 5-0 if they just pitched a shutout. With the Blue Jackets off a 5-2 win at Chicago on Saturday, they are 12-2 UNDER  in home games after a win by two goals or more.

Gamblers took this total 205 to 209. But is it warranted? In one manner, yes, as Chicago played modern NBA basketball over a four-game stretch with four Over's, shooting well and not guarding before the Bucks slowed them down on Monday. Memphis had a rare Over last night against San Antonio, but they remain the No.1 UNDER team in The Association. I'll stick with the lower score with the Grizzlies 15-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season and the Bulls 18-9 UNDER after playing a home game.

#55-56 Sharks/Flames OVER 6.5

Top 4 OVER teams. 

Golden State is 3-3 on totals of 240 or higher, but Philly is 6-2 UNDER at 230 or higher (no 240's). I'm going to say we have just enough missed shots and when the total is 220 or higher and a team like the Sixers shoot 45.5-47.5%, against a team that allows 43.5-45.5%, after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3-point shots, the UNDER is 34-16. 

These two teams have played 14, as in FOURTEEN straight Over's in the regular season and if you go back to January of 2012, they are on 21-1 Over ride! 

Detroit is not scoring or allowing over 100 points on average in last five outings. The Bucks can score, but they cannot be happy how poorly their defense played at OKC in defeat and they have more than enough ability to lock down the Pistons. These rivals are on an 8-2 UNDER run against each other and Milwaukee is 18-5 UNDER in road games having won four of their last five and games and Detroit is 11-3 UNDER revenging a loss of 10 points or more. 

Defensively, Minnesota should be able to compete as they are 9th in fewest goals surrendered and 2nd in killing off penalties. The Wild will go up against a like-minded Golden Knights crew that is stingy when it comes to giving up goals.

Vegas' foundation from the start was built around defense, figuring that was the fastest way to compete. It worked marvelously, playing for the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season. After losing a couple key players to free agency and having the hangover of almost winning the Cup, the Golden Knights are playing back to last year's level and are 5th in goals allowed. As good as they have been in conceding just 2.66 goals a game, in this 10-game stretch they have only given up 18 scores.

These are two really good defensive teams. VGK is 20-10 UNDER after scoring four or more goals and 12-4 UNDER at home after playing a game where eight or more total goals were scored. 

This we get, Alabama will score on Clemson. They are too talented offensively not to with this may be the best Crimson Tide offensive team ever and certainly the finest during the Nick Saban era. However, the Crimson Tide will not go up and down the field all night on the Tigers, who will generate a lot of pressure and stall Bama drives more than they are accustomed too.

Clemson will ring up points as both teams have talented quarterbacks who deliver the ball on time and hit receivers accurately where they can catch the pigskin and run. The Tigers are capable of being just as explosive and there are a few holes Clemson can exploit in the Tide's secondary. This is what makes the total of OVER 58 attractive for college football picks.

Concerning the side going with Clemson at +5.5, because of the depth of their defensive line to create havoc and their ability to make big plays on offense. Clemson 33-31.

The first game of the new year features two excellent defensive clubs, who do a great job in limiting points. Mississippi State is 9-3 UNDER this year and 11-2 UNDER after two straight wins by 17 or more points.

The opening NBA odds had this primetime Pacific Division battle at 234.5. With this high a total that would suggest Golden State would dictate the tempo because of their offensive prominence. The Warriors are third in the league in scoring at over 115 PPG, though the Los Angeles Lakers are not that far behind, ranked 9th, at a touch beyond 113 PPG.

At this point, we don't need to rehash the principle players in the game, because we all know who they are. What we have to keep in mind is that LeBron, Steph, Kevin and Draymond all relish the spotlight and they will do go all out to shine like stars. If the Lakers expect to stay in this contest, they will have to keep the score down, because chances are they not going to hang with Golden State unless James has 50 for the Lakers. With the Lakers on a 19-7 UNDER roll, going to back the lower score.

Sharp football bettors thought oddsmakers made an egregious error on the total of the Armed Forces Bowl and dropped it from 67.5 all the way down to 59.5. Since Tuesday, the number has come up a little to 60. Because of Houston's quick-strike ability and just pathetic tackling defense, the oddsmakers made a higher total. Bettors are looking at Army's No.1 time of possession offense and them permitting only 18 PPG and thought differently. While the opening total probably was too high, this adjustment is too large. Houston's defensive players allowed 36 points and 522 yards to a below average Navy squad that runs a similar offense. Though Army held Oklahoma to only 28 points this season, they did so by having the pigskin for 87 plays the Cougars defense will wear out long before then. Houston's speed on the perimeter will allow them to make enough large gains throughout the contest. Lastly, keep in mind Army is 20-9 OVER as a favorite and Houston is  17-4 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the OVER

The total in Saturday's bowl lid-lifter came down once Tigers leading rusher Darrell Henderson decided to his over 1,900 yards and 22 TD's and call it a college career and is heading to the NFL. From our perspective, we have two defenses conceding more than 31 PPG and two offenses that can generate big plays. Take the OVER.

With Green Bay averaging barely over 20 PPG on the road and Chicago permitting only 19 PPG anywhere they play, the total in this NFC Norris Division rivalry (Chris Berman reference) has fallen like the temps in the Windy City from 46.5 to 44.5. Over the weekend the total went back up to 46 I'm not seeing Green Bay with its O-Line problems or Chicago generating enough offense and will take the UNDER. This season when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like the Packers have lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, the UNDER is a solid 16-8.  

Not one bit surprised to see this total chopped from 53.5 to 51. Not sure if it will be Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco under center, but with how Baltimore has been running the ball at 238 YPG in last three outings and Kansas City 22nd in run defense and 31st in yards per carry allowed, this could speed up the game. The other factor is the Ravens No.1 overall defense. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER off a road game and the Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER at home after scoring 25 points or more in three straight times.

Hawai'i gave up 653 yards to Colorado State! And most importantly for this game, 5.3 YPC. The Rainbow Warriors offense looked great last week and as usual, Navy has a bunch of players to replace and the Hawai'i passing game has a few explosive guys. If this is short of 70 points I'll be shocked. Navy wins 42-31. 

Strong pitching matchup with C. Kluber vs. R. Porcello. Kluber should be able to tame Boston bats who have not scored in 17 straight innings and the Indians are  21-9 UNDER in road games having won four of their last five games. Kluber has also allowed just four runs in 22+ innings against the Red Sox. Porcello has been a bit up and down of late but pitched well in the big games and is 14-4 UNDER at home against winning teams of late. I'll call for a 4-2, 4-3 final score and an UNDER play. 

After scoring six runs in three contests, Boston unloaded on Yankees pitching and hung 15 on the scoreboard Thursday night. When looking at Luis Severino's (14-4, 2.94) four-game stretch where he's been hit hard and Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.08) being up and down like a 14-year old at a Bruno Mars concert, the total jumped from 9 to 9.5. Both pitchers are capable of lockdown performances, but I'll agree with the line movement and these pitchers are a combined 30-9 OVER in trends I like to follow. 

After an OVER last night, these are two hot offenses. Texas is scoring 7.4 RPG in there last seven outings and the Snakes are at 5.3 RPG. Both starting pitchers have ERA's over 4.75 and though the bullpens are strong in road/home scenarios, I'll forecast at least 10 runs tallied.

After losing seven straight, Milwaukee has won two of three after defeating Washington last night. The betting action is on the total, up from 9 to 9.5.  Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) is off a rare poor outing and spent some time on the DL, but he's 13-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 the last three seasons. He will face Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29), who has enjoyed an unexpectedly good campaign and he's 10-3 UNDER this season in his starts. My numbers come up to 8.3 for a total and I'll side with the UNDER. 

Colorado had a big night Wednesday with 19 runs, but for the season they are 23-19 UNDER at home and when facing LH starters like R. Ray, they are 22-14 UNDER. According to reports, Ray had his best bullpen session of the season and could have a sharp outing. The Rockies K. Freeland is one the premier UNDER hurlers in baseball and is 19-4 UNDER when the total is 10 or higher and 16-4 UNDER is day games. 

For the time being, Kenta Maeda (5-5, 3.36) has shed his up and down tendencies and been quite effective of late. Maeda figures to suppress an Angels offense that is averaging 3.1 RPG in their last 10 contests. Nonetheless, the total in the opening battle in this I-5 series has risen from 8.5 to 9. Among the reason why is a Dodgers offense that has heated up again, which at 6.3 RPG in their last seven. With Dodger Blue at a robust 5.5 RPG on the road and 12-4 OVER in away games after a victory, the OVER makes sense. 

With two of the best teams in baseball having two of the best offenses in the sport, the total in the series opener has been bumped from 9 to 9.5. Here is why this looks like wrong way action to me. The Yankees this month are 22-4 UNDER and are facing Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86), who is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 or higher and 8-2 UNDER against the Pinstripes. C.C. Sabathia will toe the rubber first for New York and he is 17-7 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 since last year and is 26-14 UNDER versus Boston.

A potentially good pitching matchup in K.C. with Charlie Morton (7-1, 2.82) facing Jakob Junis (5-6, 4.05). This has sent the total south from 9.5 to 9 and Kansas City scoring 1.3 RPG in their last eight outings also has something to do with it. Junis was lit up in his last start but usually bounces back. However, Houston averages 6 RPG on the road and Morton is regressing towards career norms. Additionally, the Astros are 17-3 OVER on the road after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games.

Both T. Bauer and D. Covey have been in good form, with both starting pitchers having ERA's under 3. For whatever reason, Cleveland has not scored well against lousy teams and is 12-3 UNDER in road games when playing against clubs with a win percentage of 38% or lower. Add in Bauer is 12-1 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game the last two seasons and the lower score gets the call. 

After skating circles around opposing teams and doing the same thing in Game 1 of the Cup Finals, Vegas might have met their match in Washington. The Golden Knights might be a little faster than the Capitals, but Washington is the stronger team and has negated how Vegas likes to control neutral ice. That is how the Caps have slowed down the series and with two goaltenders in exceptional form, I see another lower scoring game as the familiarity with each other rises. Vegas is 10-2 UNDER in road games after two or more Under's I am expecting more of the same. 

Though the Mets Zack Wheeler (2-4, 5.40 ERA) has hardly been effective, baseball bettors feel vilipend towards the Cubs Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 4.10) has walked 45 batters in just 48+ innings and has been working with coaches to find the proper release point. The total has also been affected by these two hurlers, rising from 8.5 to 9. With New York 33-14 OVER after a loss by four runs or more, I'll back it.

These rivals are 15-5 OVER at Detroit.

We know about Chris Paul. Golden State's offense has been a dumpster fire the last two games with just 186 total points. Houston's defense has gotten physical with the Warriors and they have responded with awful ball-handling (turnovers), poor judgment in shot selection and far too many 'hero ball' shot attempts.

Steve Kerr's offense is predicated on finding the open man and passing the ball. The last two games, in particular, there has been far too much dribbling or the ball stopping and mediocre shots are heaved. It's not a coincidence Andre Iguodala, who led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio, has missed the last two games, which has contributed to the Warriors woes. Nor is it that Kevin Durant had six assists in Golden State's Game 2 massacre and he's had a grand total of five in the other four games, three which were losses.

Going back to Game 3 of the 2016 Playoffs, these teams are 11-4 UNDER when meeting. Golden State is on a 7-1 UNDER run and Houston is 6-2 UNDER in their past eight outings. If you play the averages, the losing team in this series has averaged 96.4 PPG and if that remains true, that would suggest the winner could score up to 117 points and we would still have an UNDER. I'll take the lower score.

Its winner takes all in Game 7 of the Eastern Finals. Almost three-quarters of betting tickets are on Tampa Bay being on home ice, but that is not where the line move is at most books. The total is where the action is, as the UNDER 5.5 has been shifted 20 cents on the juice from -110 to -130. This makes perfect sense as the Lightning is 7-0 UNDER in the 7th game of a playoff series and Washington is 8-1 UNDER in the same exact scenario.

The Snakes major offensive slump continues and don't expect it to any better against one of their former pitchers, C. Anderson, who has a 1.88 ERA against them in four starts. The Brewers offense has been running hot and cold for a week and don't think their bats will sizzle against Z. Greinke, who is  8-0 UNDER as a road favorite of -110 or higher. With two strong bullpens, I'll back the UNDER. 

From these two teams, I expecting a more defensive type game. Houston is 7-0 UNDER in road games after playing three consecutive home games and Golden State is  18-9 UNDER after playing two straight road games this season. 

Given we have Oakland's Brett Anderson (0-2, 8.16 ERA) vs. the Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada (2-3, 5.32), the OVER would seem to have real possibilities. My Game Estimators have this at 11.3 or 12 total runs.

Frankly, there is not anyone who does not believe Cleveland and LeBron James will not play better in Game 2 and that is the driving force for the total to rise from 202.5 to 204. I'm completely on board with it and besides, Boston is 14-3 OVER in home playoff games the last two seasons. 

It was thought the only way Boston could compete in this series was playing great defense against Philadelphia. Well, the Celtics did do that and oh, by the way, hung 117 on the Sixers. The Game 1 closing total was 205 and the sportsbooks beefed it up to 207. However, enough bettors have come forward with cash in hand and lowered the number to 205.5.  The 76ers finally played as expected, out of their element in the opener, but they are still 17-6 OVER as a road favorite this season, which works for me. 

With S.Manaea vs. D. Keuchel, there is a little chance for a shortage of run for this AL West battle. Add in Manaea is 14-4 UNDER after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing and the Astros lefty is 19-4 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -175, I'll take the lower score. 

Neither teams defense is trustworthy, as the total has climbed from 202.5 to 205. Reseach finds Milwaukee 16-3 OVER after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight contests and Boston is 14-3 OVER after four or more consecutive Over's.

Those betting baseball are looking at Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies tonight against a Cincy lineup that is averaging 3.3 RPG and they adjusted the total downward from 8 to 7.5. However, hittable Homer Bailey is starting for the Reds and the Cincinnati bullpen has an ERA of almost six. With Cincy about a +185 road underdog, let's consider the OVER with the visitor 21-8 OVER as road pooch of +150 or more.

Clayton Kershaw has a 1.58 ERA against the Giants in all starts and Ty Blach of San Fran has a 1.51 ERA versus the Dodgers in five starts. Kershaw is 22-9 UNDER if his team is off a loss of late and Blach is 11-2 UNDER against the NL West. Play UNDER.

An extremely important game for seeding purposes for both teams in the East. However, the wagering action is focused on the total where the total is up two points to 224. With and without Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia offense has been on fire during their long winning streak and is averaging over 116 PPG in their past nine battles. For 43 minutes last night, the Cleveland defense was dreadful, but they picked it up when it counted and they had a huge come from behind win against Washington. I suspect we will see a great deal of defensive intensity tonight in Philly and the Cavs are 11-1 UNDER when playing on back-to-back days this season. 

With no Joel Embiid, will the Philadelphia offense, defense or both be affected? Basketball bettors might not know that answer, but they know this Atlantic Division clash should be much higher scoring than what the oddsmakers sent out and moved the total a whopping four points from 221 to 225. Two of the three matchups have been OVER's this season, but I like how the way 76ers defense has played in allowing about 101 PPG recently and will side with the UNDER.

These are two of the hottest teams in the NBA, but the focus for tonight from hoops bettors in on the total, up from 193.5 to 195. This would appear to be an incorrect line move as these are the Top 2 scoring defenses in the Association. However, upon closer inspection, the Jazz and Spurs have played seven straight OVER's. Plus, when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and road team's like Utah have won eight or more of their last 10 games and are playing on consecutive days, the OVER is 27-6 the last five years.  

Play UNDER on March home teams when the total is 210 or higher like OKLAHOMA CITY,  after four or more consecutive wins. These teams are 39-8, 83.0 percent the last five years including 11-2 this March. 

Look for plenty of points as this total is closer to 160 than 150. 

Hard to argue with the Boilermakers at 12-0 OVER on a neutral floor. 

This looks to be somewhat of curious move line (opened at 224.5) since Phoenix has only averaged 93.4 PPG in their past five games before the break and the Clippers were playing very solid defense until Golden State tagged them for 134 last night. Of course, it is possible these two could reach the adjusted number, but I'm not thinking so and will say the oddmakers original number is more accurate. 

Purdue is in a major funk and Penn State is playing very well, particularly on defense. When digging into the numbers, the Boilers are 11-3 UNDER in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions are 9-2 UNDER after playing two games as a favorite and these clubs are 11-1 UNDER in West Lafayette. 

With Dicky Vitale in the house, those betting basketball are certain he will see a higher scoring affair and moved the total from 208 to 212. Why I'm not sure. After a pretty good stretch, the Boston offense is back to normal and struggling and they have not broken the 100-point barrier once in their past five games. For whatever reason, the Clippers are playing improved defense and have conceded 102.3 PPG compared to 106.8 PPG on the season. I will go contrarian here and the Clips are 13-5 UNDER in non-conference games this year. 

Part of the reason Houston is so much better this season is a commitment to defense. Not every game or every situation, just overall. Minnesota can also score like the Rockets, however, Houston is 7-0 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 and which includes 21-4 UNDER in the same circumstance the last few seasons. 

With light NBA card, nothing popped on sides. However, when looking into totals, found Washington is 15-7 UNDER on the road 8-0 UNDER away when playing only their second game in five days. Also, OKC is 13-4 UNDER after a win by three points or less. I'm coming up with 210 for a total. 

In my world, there are two reasons why a total in college basketball would move four points like this AAC encounter has. Either a top player is returning or a combo of a bad number and sharps jumping on it. The latter is the best explanation for total climbing from 123 to 128. Because the game is in Cincinnati, I will back the OVER and the Bearcats are 12-2 OVER at home after two or more consecutive wins. 

The largest totals move in college buckets is this ACC affair, where the number flew from 123 to 127. The low total was related to Pittsburgh's offense, which has averaged 55.4 PPG in past five outings. However, the Panthers defense has allowed 76.6 PPG in that span and the Syracuse offense at home is capable of reaching that figure and is 11-3 OVER off two OVER's. 

The Titans only shot to beat the Patriots is slowing their running game, forcing Tom Brady to make quicker than preferred decisions when passing and running the football. Anything else will lead to certain defeat for Tennessee. Accomplishing all three of those elements is a HUGE task on the road for the Titans. Tennessee might be able to do a couple things on their list, which could slow down the New England offense. One can assume the Patriots probably feel confident they can contain Marcus Mariota's offense and they do not need a ton of points to quell Tennessee. That is why I expect a workman-like effort from the Brady Bunch and they win going away, 28-16, making the UNDER the correct call. 

Play Over, this ends in 150's.

There is a lot on the line for Carolina and Atlanta conflict. The Falcons are back in the postseason with a victory and very likely out if they falter. The Panthers will at least be a wild card team and with a triumph and good fortune, they might even have a home playoff game next weekend. This leads me to believe defense and careful football will rule the day. Atlanta's offense has not been the same as last year and they are 11-2 UNDER after two or more losses against the spread and 8-0 UNDER off four or more consecutive Under's. With the total at 45, I found the Panthers average score is 42 total points in away games and just below 40 points in NFC South confrontations. No problem backing the UNDER.

In spite of the Milwaukee being 11-0 OVER this month, this total slide two points to 212. The Bucks are simply below average defensively, last in three-point field goal percentage and are poorly coached by Jason Kidd. With the T-Wolves 14-5 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. I'll stick with the OVER.

The Los Angeles Chargers after three strong defensive showing were torched for 30 points against Kansas City and basically lost their chance to win the AFC West. It did not help the Chargers that the offense committed four turnovers, placing them frequently in terrible field position. The Bolts defense should return to normal against a feeble Jets offense that is not the same without Josh McCown. Carson's finest have enjoyed a few shining moments on offense this season, however, 22.2 PPG in hardly dynamic. I'll back the lower score with the Chargers 8-2 UNDER versus AFC competition. 

On my video I said be patient on Camellia Bowl total because it could keep dropping and it has. Look for both teams to score at least 30 points for easy OVER.

Spurs are 10-0 UNDER teams allowing 106+ points/game and 8-0 UNDER in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. 

Wide receiver Keenan Allen return for the Chargers Philip Rivers was like getting the band back together. The Los Angeles offense the past couple weeks has functioned more like when Rivers was younger and Allen presence has freed up other players, with Rivers is taking full advantage of this. With Cleveland the second-worst defensive team in allowing points at 26.3 PPG, it would seem Carson, CA's favorite football team should exploit this. With the total at 43, the Browns have shown the ability to give points away and score in the fourth quarter of games that are over, which could provide a backdoor cover if necessary. Additionally, road teams like Cleveland scoring 17 or less points a game, after tallying that many or less in two straight contests are 28-5 OVER the next time out. 

Among the lowest scoring teams in the league are San Francisco at 17 points a game and Chicago right behind them at 16.1 PPG. In spite of this, neither team has played an inordinate amount of low scoring contests, though the Bears are close at 7-4 UNDER. However, if you subtract each club's highest scoring total in their past five outings, the Niners come in at 10.7 PPG and Chicago at 11.7 PPG. Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo provides a spark for San Fran, but the average score for both teams in road/home situations is below 40 points, which leads to an UNDER play. 

Philadelphia has the top scoring offense in the NFL at 32 PPG and they are 6-4 OVER on the season, so where does the idea of a lower score come into play? The Chicago defense has not played poorly and is middle of the pack at 22.1 PPG allowed. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense has piled up the points, yet I wonder off big Dallas victory and having a three-game road trip on deck starting in Seattle, if we will Philly at its best. The Bears are 27th in ringing up points at 17.4 PPG and it would take quite an imagination to think they will push past that figure, with Philadelphia holding opponents to 16.6 PPG in last half dozen contests. 

Outside of six quarters of football, the Cincinnati offense has not done much. NFL analysts have regularly vilipend the Bengals offensive line, who is not passing blocking to give Andy Dalton time to throw nor created many running lane for backs. Cincy did score 31 points against Cleveland and being able to do battle with Indianapolis should raise the Bengals scoring average with the Colts conceding a league-worst 31.7 points a contest. With the listed total at 42, all we need from Indy is their season average 17 PPG. For good measure, the Colts are 9-1 OVER as a road underdog the last two seasons, with average total score 54.6.