At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams.  They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT:

I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.

BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).

Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).

Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.

BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:

(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.

(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.

Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has given up at least 384 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after giving up 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two or more games in a row at home. The Lions have averaged 27.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games away from home — and center Frank Ragnow will play in this game despite dealing with several injuries. San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel will also take the field in this game. He got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. The 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco generated 416.6 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home resulting in 26.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City comes into this game with momentum after upsetting the Bills on the road. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 292.5 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 17.1 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 22 of their 31 road games in the Reid as an underdog — and they covered all four of their road games as an underdog in the last three seasons. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 21 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Ravens outrushed the Texans last week by +191 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after outrushing their last opponent by +100 or more yards. Baltimore earned the right to host this game with the best record in the AFC — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: I appreciate what this Bills team has done in the second half of the season — and after enduring a torturous campaign last year where they were dealt emotional challenge after emotional challenge while still trying to get over psychic trauma of losing in the final nine seconds to this Chiefs team in the playoffs — this team has a better perspective that a season is a marathon rather than a sprint. If both teams were at full health and playing on equal rest, I might have invested in Buffalo in this showdown. But I do not like this situation for the Bills — especially when now laying up to a field goal. The Chiefs have two extra days of rest for this contest after completing their win against the Dolphins last Saturday afternoon as opposed to the Bills finishing their game with the Steelers two days later given the postponement from the Sunday kickoff due to weather. Then there is the Buffalo injury list with various maladies beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo. The Bills come on a six-game winning streak — but too often they perform better after facing recent adversity. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have covered the spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. No one embodies this maddening inconsistency than Josh Allen who is responsible for 41 turnovers in the last two seasons including 22 this year. The Chiefs offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But what should not be underestimated about this Kansas City team is the defense under Steve Spagnuolo who has won four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants and now the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 straight Unders after not allowing more than nine points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games coming off a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in their last two games. Led by Mahomes, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs will also be looking to avenge two straight losses to the Bills since their epic 42-36 victory in the 2022 playoffs — they last played on December 10th last month with Buffalo pulling off a 20-17 upset victory as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-8) has won two games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 32-9 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Monday. Detroit (13-5) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions earned their first playoff victory since 1991 with their triumph last week. How did they respond? Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson called out Tampa Bay Baker Mayfield by suggesting how good the Buccaneers wide receivers could be if they had a better quarterback. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took two Zoom interviews on Friday for potential head coaching jobs. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took an interview as well. These are the actions of a losing franchise. Head coach Dan Campbell can declare he has changed the culture — but talk is cheap. He still lost his cool a few weeks ago in the game at Dallas by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. You know what teams that have won a playoff game since the final years of the George Herbert Walker Bush administration all have in common: a long list of bad officiating calls that went against them. Get over it. Well, Detroit did — they defeated Matthew Stafford last week in the Prodigal Son’s return to the Motor City for the first time since the blockbuster trade that sent him to Los Angeles. It is as if the Lions won their Super Bowl last Sunday — so cue the job interviews and the trash talk. And I see this as a gigantic letdown spot — especially at this number of laying close to a touchdown. As it is, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win three points or less. They have also fueled to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home after no-cover win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Moving forward, Gardner-Johnson might want to worry about his own play rather than opposing quarterbacks — the Lions have allowed at least 323 passing yards in four straight games while surrendering 353 passing Yards-Per-Game during that stretch. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after giving up at least 275 passing yards in three or more games in a row. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the postseason. Now here comes a gritty Tampa Bay team that comes in under the radar. With cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamal Dean healthy again, the Buccaneers may have the best defense in the league. They have held their last three opponents to just 261.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 10.7 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense and tied for fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. On the other side of the ball, second-year running back Rachaad White has emerged by rushing for at least 75 yards in five of his last seven games. With wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs still have star power that are holdovers from their Super Bowl championship team three years ago. And then Mayfield is at his best when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder rather than with five national television commercial spots. In his last seven games, Mayfield has 16 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay will have revenge on their minds as well after losing at home to the Lions by a 20-6 score on October 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Detroit NBC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th. Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Let’s talk weather first — there is a 75% chance of rain with winds gusting up to 16 miles per hour. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled in the rain earlier in the season at Cleveland when he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 125 yards with only one touchdown pass and an interception in the Niners’ 19-17 loss to the Browns. There are plenty of caveats from that situation. Cleveland’s defense was playing as good as any team in the league at that point of the season — especially at home. Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got injured and left that game — and San Francisco’s offense is much different without either one of those players. And Purdy still orchestrated a late drive to put his team in position to win the game but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed the potential game-winning kick as time expired. Weather is tricky to assess — while the kicking game could be impacted by the wind and rain, the pass rush slows down in wet conditions. The books have not adjusted the point spread nor the Total given these weather updates — so I am not persuaded to change my side assessment. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss to an NFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning vie or six of their last seven games. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game. They are outscoring their guests by +12.2 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are outgaining them by +134.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Green Bay pulled off the shocker last week in Dallas despite surrendering 510 yards and getting outgained by -95 net yards. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after giving up 500 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Now Green Bay stays on the road on a short week and travels west to play the 49ers. The Packers are getting outgained on the road by -12.0 net YPG. Green Bay is very vulnerable on defense. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also suspect— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week. They allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their passes against them — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. Head coach Matt LaFleur was aggressive with his play-calling last week against the Cowboys — and his offense has generated 7.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But Green Bay has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.0 or more YPP under LaFleur.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE:  I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.  Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles have devolved into a big mess with chaos running through the organization. After beginning the season with Super Bowl aspirations, the team has collapsed — and the finger-pointing is rampant. The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. There is a school of thought that the postseason could refocus this team — but it is also possible that the team fails to provide maximum effort in this lost season with coaching changes seeming on the table. Resiliency has not been a characteristic of this team recently. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss against an NFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or more games in a row. And while they got outgained by -116 net yards by the Giants, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants. The Eagles stay on the road where they are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. While the Buccaneers' defense does not get talked about enough, they may have the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG when playing at home — and they have held their last three opponents to just 271.3 total YPG resulting in 11.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers lost at home to the Eagles by a 25-11 score as a 5-point underdog back on September 25th when both of these teams were playing under much different circumstances. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the xBuffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win on the road against an AFC North rival. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game while leading the offense to 473 total yards — and Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG which has helped them post a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +98.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be without their best defensive player T.J. Watt given his MCL knee injury. They lost six of their seven games when he was out with an injury last season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Buffalo CBS-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10  home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit comes into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Lions have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. This Lions team has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace. Detroit will play before a rabid crowd tonight that has not hosted a playoff game in the downtown area since the Bobby Layne era (their last playoff game took place at the Silverdome about an hour north in Pontiac). Detroit is generating 408.8 total YPG at home resulting in 30.5 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +8.9 PPG. The Lions have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win by three points or less against an NFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games following a win on the road against a divisional foe. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they generated 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have also played 6 straight Overs at home after a double-digit victory. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games. Their offense has generated 432 and 470 yards in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Packers have only given up 19 combined points in their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total. And while Dallas averages only 0.9 turnovers per game, Green Bay has played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against opponents who do not average more than one turnover per game. Unfortunately for Green Bay, their secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 8* NFL Green Bay-Dallas Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday. Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins had an opportunity to claim the second seed and face the Bills once again in South Beach this week — but their loss last Sunday night puts them very much behind the eight ball in the Wild Card round. It’s bad enough for them that they played the late game on Sunday night and now play on the road on a short week against the Chiefs. And the weather conditions in Kansas City are perhaps their worst nightmare. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. Miami is also a M*A*S*H unit right now with a bevy of injuries headlined by Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard out on defense — and they had to sign veterans off the street this week to fill out their defensive end depth chart (and they are expected to play tonight). Head coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. Now it is dangerous to discount a team in wounded animal mode like the Dolphins are — but this sentiment helped motivate my backing them last Sunday night at home in that crucial game against Buffalo. Perhaps they win (or at least cover the point spread as the home underdog) if not for the Bills’ 96-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second half that changed the momentum of that game. But the fact remains that the Dolphins did not score in the second half while getting outgained by -198 net yards with the offense only generating 275 total yards. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 road games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last contest. The Dolphins' defense is faltering lately as they have given up 434.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Kansas City has experience playing in this cold weather — especially in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes commented that the practices in these conditions are worse because they do not have the benefit of heaters on the sidelines. Mahomes also throws a crisper ball than Tagovailoa bites through the wind — so the Chiefs should have a net edge in the passing game. Playing at Arrowhead Stadium already gives Kansas City a big advantage as it is — they are outscoring their guests by +6.2 net PPG and outgaining them by +106 net YPG due to their outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by three points or less. And while they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing vUnder the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by six points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Buffalo has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where their 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average is -2.3 PPG below their season average. The Bills have played 12 of their last 16 games — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last contest. And while they gave up 491 yards of offense last week against the Ravens, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Miami offense is undermanned tonight with both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle not expecting to play. But the Dolphins' defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins lost on the road to the Bills by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a loss by 14 or more points to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game and they have not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in four straight contests. The Texans have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in four games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 or more points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Colts stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also played 26 of their last 39 home games Under the Total against opponents who are not giving up more than 90 rushing Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their mind. The Texans have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-3) has won five straight games and nine of their last 10 contests with their 56-19 victory against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (9-7) has won two straight games after their 30-23 upset victory at Seattle as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs — so head coach John Harbaugh has the luxury of resting several of his key starters. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, wide receivers            Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton are not expected to play — and players like left tackle Ronnie Stanley may not get much playing time when push comes to shove. But roster limits prevent head coaches from benching all their starters in situations like this. Baltimore prides themselves on their roster depth — and they have demonstrated during their 24-game winning streak in the preseason that they do not compromise on their commitment to winning games. So while their best players will not play in this one — don’t underestimate how much they would like to ruin their arch-rival's opportunity to make the playoffs. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after scoring 40 or more points. Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback who has a career 65.6% completion percentage. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 6 straight games at home as an underdog. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh will have the burden of expectations since they must win this game — and then get help from some other results — to have a chance to earn a wild card spot in the AFC playoff race. The Steelers have pulled off two straight upset victories to create this opportunity after their 34-11 upset win at home against Cincinnati two weeks ago. But Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Pittsburgh has scored 64 combined points in their last two games — but this remains an offense that had not scored more than 16 points in their previous three games on the road. Mason Rudolph has provided a spark for the offense — but he has not been nearly as effective on the road in his career than he has at home, despite his good performance against the Seahawks last week. Rudolph completes 65.6% of his passes at home with 12 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in his career — but on the road, he is completing only 58.7% of his passes with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions.   

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens not only want to screw their arch-rival's playoff chances — but they will also want to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 5-point road favorite on October 8th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the opportunity to exact revenge — and the underdog is 23-5-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings between these AFC North rivals. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Baltimore ABC-TY/ESPN Special with the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota’s 390 yards last week against the Lions was one more yard than they allowed — but they fell short because of a -3 net turnover margin. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss at home. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. Mullens threw for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have given up 57 combined points in two straight games — they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. The Vikings stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Green Bay got outgained by -25 net yards last week after surrendering 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-8) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-23 upset loss to New England as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-10) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 24-22 loss to Buffalo as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week with the expectation that the team would play better after Brandon Staley was finally fired. Getting rid of the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West united the team much like the Las Vegas Raiders have rallied around each other after their hated head coach Josh McDaniels was let go. While the Raiders continue to fight for their interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the hope that owner Mark Davis will tap him as their permanent boss, there is little chance that the Chargers interim head coach Giff Smith will be given the permanent job. Last week was likely a dead cat’s bounce for this team. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by seven points or less. The Chargers benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Bills — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They only rushed for 98 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last game. This group is a M*A*S*H unit right now. The offense is without quarterback Justin Herbert along with wide receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and now even Joshua Palmer who played last week. The defense is missing Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray among several players. Denver has their opportunity to demonstrate how good they can be once a toxic individual is removed from the equation with Russell Wilson now benched to ensure he does not get injured which would trigger a $37 million guarantee in his contract in March. Many of Wilson’s teammates consider him phony with his NDAs and past disclosures that he was celibate before marrying his supermodel wife (I’m not throwing shade about celibacy — but bragging about it begins to draw attention). It was only last week when Wilson proclaimed how happy he was to be running his Seattle offense again where he could take advantage of his legs. That, frankly, is a lie since he was very vocal about wanting to emulate the second half of his career like Drew Brees where he relied on his arm — it’s the entire foundation for him getting out of Seattle because they would not “let him cook.” These teammates saw Wilson sign his $242 million extension while gaining 20 pounds last year — that must have been Nathaniel Hackett’s fault too. Yep, I think the Broncos are going to step up their effort with Wilson exiled. Head coach Sean Payton likes Jarrett Stidham which is why he signed him as a free agent away from the Raiders. Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss by six points or less. Denver has not covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against AFC rivals. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 389 yards against the Vikings last week with the offensive line playing better together now that center Frank Ragnow is healthy again. But Detroit gave up 390 yards to the Vikings offense in the victory. The Lions go back on the road where they are allowing 25.3 PPG — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home. But Detroit has rushed for at least 140 yards in five straight games behind their two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs — and three of those games were on the road. The Cowboys can be run on as the Buffalo Bills demonstrated by gouging them for 266 yards on 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry two weeks ago. The Lions have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a victory on the road over a divisional rival. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. And in their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher, Detroit has played 4 of these games Over the Total. The Lions are completing 67.7% of their passes this season — and the Cowboys have played 26 of their last 38 home games in the second half of the season Over the Total against opponents who are completing 64% or more of their passes. Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. They have been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when favored. Dallas has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Lions have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). THE SITUATION: New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland held the Texans to just 250 total yards last week — a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Browns return home where they have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. The Browns have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks 14-17 of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson has had great success in his career against teams from the NFC opponents — Baltimore has a 16-1 straight-up record in non-conference games with Jackson under center. The conventional wisdom is that teams unfamiliar with Jackson struggle to adapt to his unique skill set. Most teams do not have a player close to his talents who can come close to replicating his actions to practice against. The 49ers lack a speedy linebacker or safety who can effectively spy against him during the game. Furthermore, in Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top-five in total defense, the Ravens have won all five of those games while scoring more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. While that 16-1 straight-up record against the NFC does not take into account the point spread, it certainly is an intriguing number when Baltimore is an underdog. Jackson combines with an outstanding defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense and sacks. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore rushed for 251 yards against the Jaguars — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 road games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. San Francisco actually got outgained by -30 net yards last week against the Cardinals. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after giving up 6.0 or more YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. And while the 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 20* NFL Baltimore-San Francisco ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ravens generated 396 yards of offense last week but did not push things with the scoreboard with them dominating the Jaguars. Baltimore has scored 31 or more points in six of their last eight games — and they are scoring 27.4 Points-Per-Game. In Lamar Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top five in total defense, the Ravens are averaging more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Ravens have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Despite leading the NFL in scoring defense, Baltimore can get embroiled in shootouts. Cleveland scored 33 points against them in their upset victory that saw 64 combined points scored and the Los Angeles Rams scored 31 points against them two weeks ago in the Ravens win that had 68 combined points scored. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog. San Francisco has scored 27 or more points in six straight games. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory when they covered a double-digit point spread win. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — far above their 5.2 YPP defensive average for the season. The 49ers return home where have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when the favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 63-21 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas City (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 27-17 victory at New England as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders' unlikely offensive explosion was due primarily to the Chargers lack of focus in head coach Brandon Staley’s final game with the team — and their +5 net turnover margin helped put them in scoring position (and they scored a defensive touchdown on an interception). Las Vegas only gained 378 total yards in the game. They had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games and six of their last seven before that outburst on Thursday night. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. While the offense has been mostly subpar with rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, the Las Vegas defense has been much better since Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach. Under his leadership, the Raiders are holding their opponents to 15.5 Ppints-Per-Game after giving up more than 24 PPG under previous head coach Josh McDaniels. Now Las Vegas goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.  Kansas City held the Patriots to just 206 total yards last week in their 10-point victory. The Chiefs have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 21 points. But it is the offense that has been the bigger surprise for the defending Super Bowl champions as they have not scored more than 21 points in five of their last seven contests. Tight end Travis Kelce is beginning to show his age and the wide receiver corps has not seen a reliable second option emerge. Head coach Andy Reid is so fed up with Kadarius Toney’s mistakes that he did not even practice this week — and he is not active for this game. Rookie Rashee Rice has shown flashes — but this team would be much better off if he was the third option rather than the second. Kansas City has not rushed for more than 82 yards in two straight games as well — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than  99 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight Unders after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.8 total YPG resulting in just 16.2 PPG. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). THE SITUATION: New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos gave up 185 rushing yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Denver has covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games including four of these last five circumstances. Denver generated only 297.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. But their defense is holding their opponents to 330.9 total YPG resulting in 20.1 PPG for these foes. Now they host a Patriots offense decimated by injuries. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns. Bailey Zappe remains their starting quarterback with Mac Jones permanently benched. Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. As it is, the Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: We have gotten burned with our Under plays lately — but following the evidence remains the best long-term approach for success. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-6) has lost three games in a row after their 23-7 loss to Baltimore as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-7) has won three games in a row with their 34-20 upset victory at Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Jacksonville is expected to play this afternoon after clearing the concussion protocol yesterday and then getting through the pre-game drills on the field earlier this afternoon. Obviously, his presence on the field makes a big difference in backing the Jaguars as a road favorite as opposed to C.J. Beathard. Jacksonville was held scoreless in the first half last week in their loss to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their previous game. Now they go back on the road where they have played well by winning five of their six games. They are outgaining their home hosts by +28.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They are also outscoring the home teams by +6.8 Points-Per-Game while holding them to just 19.1 PPG. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Additionally, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 28 passes for 381 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in his spectacular effort against the Packers — but Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tampa Bay returns home where they are just 3-3 and scoring only 16.3 PPG. The Bucs are getting outscored by -0.7 PPG and outgained by -21.2 net YPG. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when they are the underdogs.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th. Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: A periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and these are too many points for a home dog that will have something to prove now that their unpopular head coach is now gone. Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. We were on Las Vegas for that game — but now after that public embarrassment, expect one of the hardest efforts from this Los Angeles team now that the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West is finally dead. The coordinators' responsibilities remain basically in tact with outside linebackers coach Giff Smith being tapped as the interim head coach for the rest of the season. Like interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the Raiders, Smith is very popular in the locker room — I expect this group to play hard out of professional pride. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. As it is, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles has not covered the point spread in their last two games and they have covered the point spread only once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Look for the Chargers to attempt to run the ball more to protect their defense and ask less of backup quarterback Easton Stick (playing for Justin Herbert who is out the season) as they have not rushed for more than 92 yards in four straight games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bills have not allowed more than 17 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last two games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a home game that finished Under the Total. Buffalo got their ground game going by rushing for 266 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after rushing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Much of the Bills’ success has been protecting the football as they have won the turnover battle in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Buffalo has not been dominant on the road this season where they have a 2-5 record. While they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +64.0 net Yards-Per-Game, they are outscoring their home hosts by just +1.9 PPG and outgaining them by +14.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: After a three-week gauntlet where they played at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, and then home at Dallas in a must-win game, don’t be surprised if the Bills exhale in this contest. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Buffalo-LA Chargers Peacock Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). THE SITUATION:  Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Since replacing fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, new OC Joe Brady has committed to running the ball more. In the Bills' last five games, they have rushed for 879 yards for a 176 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. This has helped the Bills' defense as they have held their last four opponents to 17.5 Points-Per-Game. They limited the Cowboys to just 195 total yards last week. Now they go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total — and they have played 38 of their last 59 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Additionally, Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games overall Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 12 road games against AFC opponents, the Bills have played 10 of those games Under the Total. Across the sidelines, Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed Las Vegas to generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. The defense was not really the problem last week as the Raiders only generated 378 total yards — it was their -5 net turnover margin that gave Las Vegas short fields as they raced out to a 42-0 halftime lead. The Chargers return home where they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Under the Total after a game where they posted a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals outlasted the Vikings last week despite getting outgained by -46 net yards and allowing the Nick Mullens-led offense to gain 424 yards against them. Cincinnati has averaged 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after generating 375 or more YPG in their last three contests. Quarterback Jake Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati is also allowing their home hosts to average 380.8 YPG and 25.5 PPG. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while the Steelers have not covered the point spread during their three-game losing streak, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. If there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG. But after gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured, Rudolph does have experience as he has ten career NFL starts under his belt — and he is trusted by Tomlin which is why he has remained with the franchise over his six-year career. The Steelers have a good opportunity to have success running the football given the season-ending injury to defensive tackle D.J. Reader who is one of the best run defenders in the league. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score 14 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh generated 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry for 153 rushing yards against the Bengals defense even with Reader patrolling the line of scrimmage in their 16-10 victory in Cincinnati on November 26th. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss by seven points or less. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans remains firmly in the NFC playoff race as they are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South while being in a multi-team tie for the second and third spots in the NFC wildcard race. The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans preceded their dominant victory against the Giants with a 28-6 victory against Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after winning their last two games by 14 or more points. The Saints have failed to rush for more than 97 yards in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight games. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG resulting in only 19.0 PPG — and they are outscoring these teams by +3.3 PPG and outgaining them by +47.6 net YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams are healthy again and feasting on subpar teams — but quarterback Matthew Stafford has lost all four of his starts this season against a top-ten scoring defense. And on the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald has not been as dominant — in his last four games, he has only eight tackles, one tackle for loss, and just 0.5 sacks. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not retain much home-field advantage in that market — they have failed to cover the point spread in 45 of their last 70 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The good news on the injury front for New Orleans is that wide receiver Chris Olave is “good to go” to take the field tonight after he missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury. The Saints have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the final four weeks of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given both of these quarterback situations, I expect both of these teams to attempt to impose their physicality by running the football and controlling the line of scrimmage. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Philadelphia defense needs help after allowing 451.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Head coach Nick Sirianni has shaken things up by moving defensive coordinator Sean Desai up to the booth to be able to observe the field better. It’s unclear if Matt Patricia will now be calling the plays or if he will be on the sidelines to relay the defensive play calls to the defense. At the very least, I suspect the Eagles' defense to shake some things up tonight. Not playing the Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas offenses will certainly help as Sirianni’s group has gone through a gauntlet recently. Philly stays on the road where they have played 15 of their last 25 road games Under the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two games. The Seahawks surrendered 354 passing yards last week to the 49ers — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.  Seattle returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens generated 449 yards of offense against the Rams' defense despite being without the injured tight end Matt Andrews. Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season — but now they go on the road where those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Jacksonville has only won two of their last four games — but they have amped things up on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 29.0 PPG since only managing a field goal in their loss to San Francisco back on November 12th. The Jaguars have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday. Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a win by double-digits. The Broncos have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Denver has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have held their last three opponents to just 301.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 13.7 Points-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lions are only scoring 22.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they return home where they are holding their opponents to 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 22.7 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a team from the AFC. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests after their 21-18 upset loss to New England as a 5.5-point favorite back on December 7th. Indianapolis (7-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: I expected Pittsburgh to respond to their upset loss at home to Arizona with another flat effort at home as a favorite to a struggling Patriots team. The Steelers did not seem ready to play in that game on a short week despite playing at home in a prime time audience. They dug themselves a big hole by spotting New England a 21-3 lead midway through the second quarter. Usually, this team responds with good efforts after a bad performance under head coach Mike Tomlin — so that loss to the Patriots was out of character. But Pittsburgh has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by three points or less. The Steelers have only covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Despite their recent struggles, Pittsburgh is still outgaining their opponents by +65.0 net Yards-Per-game. While Mitchell Trubisky has been spotty in replacing the injured Kenny Pickett at quarterback, the Steelers' defense remains stout. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.0 total YPG resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they have a 3-2 record due to their defense holding their home hosts to only 17.6 PPG. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog of up to three points. The Steelers should be able to get their ground game going with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against this Colts defense that allows 132 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has been pretty fortunate to remain in the AFC playoff hunt as they got outgained in yardage in four of their last five games despite winning four of those contests. The Colts have won five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. Winning close games has obscured that they are getting outscored and outgained in yardage for the season. Indy has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are only 2-4 this season. They are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG at home while getting outgained in yardage. The Colts are allowing their guests to generate 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in the ground game and 380.3 total YPG resulting in 28.8 PPG. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is out with a thumb injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Indianapolis NFL Network Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers only managed 283 total yards last week in their loss to the Broncos. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last five contests, they have then played 9 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers have played four straight Unders — but they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons — and he will have a limited supporting cast tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams due to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Chargers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Las Vegas only managed 202 total yards last week in their shutout loss — but they did hold the Vikings to just 231 total yards. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. And while they endured a -3 net turnover margin last week, they have played 6 straight Unders after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Head coach Antonio Pierce has not named his starting quarterback tonight although the expectation is that it will remain rookie Aidan O’Connell — but the offense may be without running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Davante Adams who are both listed as questionable. The Raiders stay at home on the short week — and their defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. The Chargers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: While both of these teams are dealing with a host of injuries, the internal cohesion of these two squads is quite different. For Las Vegas, the Wicked Witch of the West, Josh McDaniels, has already been fired — so the locker room is happy. The players like interim head coach Antonio Pierce — and the former New York Giants star linebacker remains a candidate to be named the head coach moving forward. The team has consistently played hard for him since he took over — and they have taken the field for him despite being on the injured list during the week. So while defensive end Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams are listed as questionable, I expect both to play. Crosby did not practice this week which is not unusual on a short week. Adams came down with an illness yesterday but he should be able to play through it 36 hours later. Crosby and Adams will be the best two players on the field if they play tonight — and that is a consideration I undervalued earlier this year when the Raiders hosted Green Bay. Superstars matter — especially in games between two mediocre teams. Running back Josh Jacobs' questionable status is more in doubt with a quad — but if he plays, Pierce says it will be the “Josh Jacobs Show” and we should be in great shape. Even if he doesn’t, home-field advantage should help pave the way for this team. Las Vegas has been solid at home with a 4-3 record along with a +2.0 net Points-Per-Game margin and a +6.7 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Raiders' defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to three points. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in their last game. The expectation is that Pierce will turn back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after not committing to a starter after the offense failed to score a point. As long as it is not Brian Hoyer, the Raiders offense should rebound with a better effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. The story of Los Angeles is much more dire. Their season is done after the season-ending right finger injury to quarterback Justin Herbert last week. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons. Head coach Brandon Staley will almost certainly be fired at the end of the season (although I thought he was a goner last year at this time). First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is also likely to be let go — if not, management would have elevated him to be the interim head coach to give him a test run as the potential next head coach. Given comments to the press like from veteran Austin Ekeler, the team does not particularly like Staley with his reckless fourth down decisions and failure to improve the defense. In hindsight, his resume from being the defensive coordinator during the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl run seems to be thanks to the presence of Aaron Donald. I’m skeptical regarding the kind of effort the Chargers’ players are going to provide tonight for their lame-duck coaches. Injuries leave the remaining talent thin. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. And on the other side of the ball, defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is out tonight with a sprained foot. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (132) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th. Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should be motivated to embrace the spoiler role at home against the Packers — and they will benefit from the extra week off to rest and prepare for their opportunity to play in front of a nationally televised audience. The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their victory against the Patriots came on the heels of a 12-point upset victory against Washington — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. After forcing six turnovers against the Commanders, the Giants posted a +2 net turnover margin against the Patriots with three takeaways — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. They stay at home for this one where they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Green Bay goes back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG. And while the Giants are allowing 136 rushing YPG, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. Furthermore, while New York is getting outscored by -11.0 net PPG this season, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (132) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (129) and the Miami Dolphins (130). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-28 loss in overtime at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (9-3) has won three straight games after their 45-15 victory at Washington as a 9-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: In a losing effort, quarterback Will Levis completed only 16 of 33 passes for 224 yards. After making a big splash in his opening game by throwing four touchdown passes against Atlanta, Levis has only three touchdown passes in his last five games. Behind a porous offensive line, Levis has been sacked 20 times which is the third most in the NFL during that span. I don’t see the Titans putting up many points against what is a surging Dolphins defense. Tennessee had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games before last week — and they still have not scored more than 17 points in six of their last eight contests. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while their game with the Colts finished Over the Total, they have played 12 of their 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Tennessee run defense has played better lately as they have not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in two straight games and three of their last four contests — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in two or more games in a row. The Titans outrushed the Colts by +122 net rushing yards — and they have played 7 straight Unders after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more rushing yards. And while they gave up 300 passing yards to Indianapolis, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are generating only 249.1 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 12.3 Points-Per-Game. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the last four weeks of the season under head coach Mike Vrabel. While Miami’s offensive attack gets most of the attention, it is the play of their defense that has them in contention to claim the top seed in the AFC playoff race. The Dolphins have responded to first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio — and they have been much better since getting cornerback Jalen Ramsey back from injury. Miami has held their last three opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those teams scoring more than 15 points. They have not allowed more than 21 points in five straight games — and they have held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 21 points after their debacle against Buffalo where they gave up 48 points. The Dolphins have scored 79 combined points in their last two games — but they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. Teams rarely put up big numbers against a Vrabel-coached team (and the Colts scored one of their touchdowns on a blocked punt on special teams). The Titans have held nine of their 12 opponents to 27 or fewer points — and they have held eight of their opponents to no more than 24 points. Miami has played 9 of their 13 home games Under the Total with Mike McDaniel as their head coach — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have been favored by double-digits four times under McDaniel — and 3 of those games finished Under the Total. Miami has also played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (129) and the Miami Dolphins (130). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (127) and the Dallas Cowboys (128). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Philadelphia’s defense should play better tonight after allowing the 49ers to generate 8.56 Yards-Per-Play en route to their 456 yards of offense. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while the Eagles have played two straight high-scoring games where at least 61 combined points were scored, they have then played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total after two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games — and they have scored at least 33 points during that span. But the Cowboys have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Dallas defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 15.8 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has revenge on their mind from their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th in a game where they held the Eagles to under 300 yards of offense — and in their three previous opportunities in the last three years to avenge a loss where they allowed 28 or more points, all 3 of those games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (127) and the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th. Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the Dallas Super Bowl as they both host their arch-rivals and have the opportunity to post their first victory against a team with a winning record this season. Head coach Mike McCarthy missing time this week after an emergency appendectomy is not ideal — but the team had extra days to rest and prepare for this rematch from just last month so I don’t consider those circumstances substantial enough to change the play. The Cowboys' offense has been on another level since their bye week when McCarthy decided to be more aggressive in the passing game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has in his entire career — he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has stepped up as a dangerous second option to CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Left tackle Tyron Smith is playing at a very high level again. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The Cowboys' defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — but they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 30 or more points. The Cowboys stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 15 games going back to last season. They are generating 438.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 41.0 PPG this season — and they are outscoring their guests by +24.2 net PPG with their defense only allowing 15.8 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points. I don’t love fading a team that just got beat by 23 points — but this looks like a lull period for the Eagles who are in a terrible situational spot. Teams tend to struggle after playing the physical 49ers in the previous week — and this has been a  brutal stretch of games for Philadelphia having previously played Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. Philly surviving this stretch with a 3-2 mark was considered a very acceptable result before the season started — and they have already clinched that accomplishment even with a loss tonight. The Eagles have been getting by with smoke and mirrors as well — they have been outgained in yardage in five straight contests. Furthermore, their net point differential mark of +58 points is a historically low number — since 2008, that mark ranks 56 of the 58 NFL teams that had won at least ten games after Week 13. Philly’s linebackers have been a weak link — and the defense is not generating enough pass rush. Since Week Eight, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL with a sack rate of 4.4% — and their 10 sacks during that span that ranks 27th in the league. Their sack rate of 5.3% on third down this season ranks 30th in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 260 YPG — and they rank 31st in the league in touchdown passes allowed. In their last four games, they are allowing 29.0 PPG. The Eagles have not been resilient lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have only scored six and seven points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their blowout loss to the 49ers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Prescott thrives against divisional rivals — he has a 30-8 straight-up record in starts against the NFC East with 72 touchdown passes and only 20 interceptions while posting a Passer Rating of 101. Against the Eagles at home at A&T Stadium, Prescott has a 5-1 career record with 12 touchdown passes. In the their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th, Dallas got inside the Eagles’ territory in their final four possessions but only came away with nine points due to some unusual circumstances. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 22-17 loss at Houston as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-7) ended their three-game losing streak with their 6-0 victory at New England as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos only gained 282 total yards last week with head coach Sean Payton continuing to deploy his Russell Wilson “fix” by asking him to not pass the football — he only had 26 pass attempts last week but still threw three interceptions. After starting the season by throwing 32 or more times in four of his five games. Wilson has not thrown more than 29 passes in six of his last seven games with Payton trying to deploy a ball-control offense to help his defense (and not ask too much of Wilson). Denver is holding their last seven opponents to 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Eight, the Broncos' defense leads the NFL with 15 takeaways — and they are second in the league with an Opponent’ Third Down Success Rate of 29.0 and an Opponents’ Passer Rating of 73.9. But Denver is generating only 290.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are averaging just 290.6 total YPG on the road. The Broncos game with the Texans finished Under the 47-point Total for that game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Furthermore, the Broncos have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 27 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, Denver has played 18 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley seems to be using his final weeks as the Chargers head coach by finally trying to do things to help his defense — perhaps with the hopes that he can get a job in the league again as a defensive coordinator. Unfortunately for quarterback Justin Herbert, he has done so by neutering the offensive side of the ball. Los Angeles managed only 241 total yards en route to their six points against the Patriots last week. The Chargers are generating only 304.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 12.0 PPG. But they have held their last three opponents to 338.3 total YPG and 14.3 PPG. Injuries have played a role in slowing down the offense. The offensive line has struggled without center Corey Linsley. Running back Austin Ekeler seems to have lost a step — and Staley has even gone so far as to open up the lead-back role into an open competition with Joshua Kelley. The injuries to wide receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have left Herbert without a viable second option to Keenan Allen — and rookie Quentin Johnston appears to be a bust as he struggles with the playbook and route running. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have played 32 of their last 45 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to three points.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Broncos have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. New England (2-10) has lost five games in a row after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: In this ugly matchup being played on a short week, if there is one reliable element to this contest, it is how head coach Mike Tomlin gets his team to respond after a bad loss. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after an upset loss by double-digits. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. And they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after playing a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. Pittsburgh did outgain the Cardinals by +35 net yards in the loss. They will have running back Najee Harris available for this game after being listed as questionable with a knee injury. And backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky should play better tonight with a few days of preparation as the starter for the injured Kenny Pickett. He was solid in relief on Sunday completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards while accounting for the lone touchdown with his pass to Dionte Johnson. Trubisky has a career 31-25 record as a starting quarterback. The Steelers' defense has been outstanding this season — after holding Arizona to just 282 total yards last week, they have held their last three opponents to just 254.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has held eight of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less. They face a woeful Patriots offense that has not scored more than seven points in three straight games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in 11 straight contests. New England has failed to score more than seven points five times this season. The offensive line has struggled. The wide receiver room lacks speed. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be the best playmaker on offense but he is out with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver Demario Douglas is also out. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and asking him to be the bell cow back on a short week is ambitious. Mac Jones deserved getting benched — but Bailey Zappe is not in a position to do much better. His decent numbers last season were helped by a soft slate of defenses he was fortunate to face. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He is averaging a mere 4.7 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has a QBR of 50.2. On the road, the Patriots are generating only 285.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.8 PPG. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. And while the Patriots have covered the point spread only once in their last nine contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to lose three games in a row despite not giving up more than 10 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the  Pittsburgh Steelers (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (102). THE SITUATION: New England (2-10) has lost five games in a row after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Just an ugly matchup between two offenses stuck in the 20th century relying on backup quarterbacks — and all of this on a short week. The small Total would even be considered quite low for a preseason game — but with both of these defenses being very good, there is a good chance that at least one of these teams will not reach double-digits. The Steelers' defense has been outstanding this season — after holding Arizona to just 282 total yards last week, they have held their last three opponents to just 254.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has held eight of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less. But they have scored 16 points or less in three straight games — and they are generating only 287.3 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They only scored three points in the first half last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. And while Pittsburgh has played three straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They face a woeful Patriots offense that has not scored more than seven points in three straight games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in 11 straight contests. New England has failed to score more than seven points five times this season. The offensive line has struggled. The wide receiver room lacks speed. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be the best playmaker on offense but he is out with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver Demario Douglas is also out. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and asking him to be the bell cow back on a short week is ambitious. Mac Jones deserved getting benched — but Bailey Zappe is not in a position to do much better. His decent numbers last season were helped by a soft slate of defenses he was fortunate to face. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He is averaging a mere 4.7 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has a QBR of 50.2. He passed for only 141 yards last week despite playing the entire game — and New England has played 6 straight Unders after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. On the road, the Patriots are generating only 285.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.8 PPG. But the New England defense continues to play well despite all this. They have held their last three opponents to 10 points or less — and those opponents are generating just 241.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They have played four straight Unders coming into this game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. And in their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Steelers have played 16 of their last 24 games at home Under the Total including five of their seven home games this season. 10* NFL New England-Pittsburgh Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (473) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-3) has won two straight games after their 24-21 victory as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals offense simply takes a big without the injured Joe Burrow under center. They are scoring only 15 Points-Per-Game in their last eight games without Burrow as their starting quarterback. With Jake Browning under center, Cincinnati only registered ten first downs and just 222 total yards of offense. The lack of a credible ground game was always going to be a problem for this team in attempting to make a Super Bowl run this year. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step (or two) — he is generating only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry this season after posting that same number last year. The offense misses Samaje Perine who they did not resign in the offseason — and rookie Chase Brown has not been able to take his place as a third down back or even a change-of-pace back (although he may get opportunities tonight, out of desperation). Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 5 straight Unders after losing two or more games in a row. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Cincinnati defense allowed 421 yards last week — but they did not break as they held the Steelers to only those 16 points. They have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after getting outgained by -150 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Bengals have allowed at least 405 yards in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have won four of their last five games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Jaguars generated 6.54 Yarsds-Per-Play against the Texans — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. There is a perception regarding how good Trevor Lawrence is already — and he may develop into an elite quarterback. But he has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last four weeks. In their last three games, Jacksonville has scored only 20.3 PPG. And in their five games at home, they are generating just 303.6 total YPG which is resulting in only 20.0 PPG. The Jaguars have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on a grass field. The Bengals have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Lastly, Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Jacksonville ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (473) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (473) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-3) has won two straight games after their 24-21 victory as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: A weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. The Jaguars have won 13 of their last 16 games going back to last season — but there is a perception in some ranks of what this team is (already) that does not match their underlying metrics. Don’t get me wrong: Jacksonville may someday win a Super Bowl with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. I just don’t think they are there yet. The Jaguars are only outgaining their opponents by +1.8 net Yards-Per-Game. They have a 3-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. They benefit from playing in a weak division (but that seems to be changing). Lawrence has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last four weeks. In their last three games, Jacksonville has scored only 20.3 PPG. And in their five games at home, they are generating just 303.6 total YPG which is resulting in only 20.0 PPG. The Jaguars are 6-0 on the road — but they have a 2-3 record at home while getting outscored by -4.4 PPG and getting outgained by -54.6 net YPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. They have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. And while they have gained 389 and 445 total yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after gaining 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Cincinnati is not going to make the playoffs since Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury — but this is a proud team that can play the role of the spoiler tonight. Jake Browning completed 19 of 26 passes last week but for only 227 yards — but wide receiver Tee Higgins returns to action tonight after missing the last three games due to injury. His presence will make a big difference since he is the target that can punish opposing defenses when they double-cover Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. In defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, I Trust — and the Cincy defense should travel tonight. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 56 road games during Weeks 10-13.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals should be competitive tonight — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road as an underdog and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (473) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Green Bay Packers (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-17 victory at Las Vegas as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (5-6) has won three of their last four games after their 29-22 upset win against Detroit as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring 31 points last week against the Raiders, the Chiefs are scoring only 19.5 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. Kansas City is generating only 339.2 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road which is resulting in 21.3 PPG. The lack of emergence of a number one wide receiver is apparent. Rookie Rashee Rice did catch eight balls last week against Las Vegas — but the rookie had not been targeted more than six times in his previous seven games. The bigger story is the slow decline of Travis Kelce’s productivity. No, it has done nothing to do with his Hollywood business relationship with What’s Her Name — but that arrangement just in time for his appearance on about a half dozen television commercials and her concert movie does indicate that the 34-year-old is thinking about life after football. He’s slowing down — and the fact that defenses can double-team him without getting burned elsewhere on the field is hurting this offensive attack. But the Kansas City defense has become outstanding as they are holding their opponents to 290.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 16.5 PPG. The Chiefs have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 27 games as a favorite, they have played 18 of these games Under the Total. Green Bay has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after an upset victory against an NFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory against a divisional rival as an underdog getting six or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Packers have pulled off two straight upset victories after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers at home two weeks ago — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Green Bay has won the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Despite those victories, the Packers are scoring only 23.7 PPG in their last three contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are generating just 325.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.2 PPG. But the Green Bay defense holds their guests to just 316.0 total YPG which is only resulting in 19.6 PPG. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Green Bay Packers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-17 victory at Las Vegas as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (5-6) has won three of their last four games after their 29-22 upset win against Detroit as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory against an AFC West rival in their last game. They have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Chiefs' defense is outstanding as they are holding their opponents to 290.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 16.5 PPG. Look for head coach Andy Reid to get his ground game cranking up against a Packers defense that has allowed 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games which has resulted in 165 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset victory against an NFC North rival as an underdog getting six or more points. The Packers have pulled off two straight upset victories after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers at home two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three of their last four contests. Despite those triumphs, Green Bay is allowing their opponents to generate 394.0 total YPG in their last three games— and they are scoring only 23.7 PPG in their last three contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are generating just 325.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.2 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games — and the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (459) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (460). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-10) has lost four games in a row after their 17-10 loss at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-7) has lost two games in a row and six of their last seven after a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers managed only 258 total yards last week in their loss against the Titans — and that was the final straw for head coach Frank Reich who was fired earlier in the week. Bill Walsh calling the plays would not make a dramatic difference for this Carolina offense that lacks playmakers. They have scored only 12.5 Points-Per-Game in their last four contests. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. And in their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Carolina is playing good defense lately — they have held their last three opponents 290.0 total YPG which has resulted in only 22.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Tampa Bay managed only 298 total yards last week in their last against the Colts. Head coach Todd Bowles was as angry as he gets after the game regarding some of the fundamental play from his players on defense as they gave up 394 total yards in that game. Look for that to get cleaned up for this contest. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are scoring only 15.4 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. The Buccaneers have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total against the NFC. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (459) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (465) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (466). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 24-21 loss to Jacksonville as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (6-5) has won five games in a row after their 29-12 win against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Broncos are demonstrating the importance of winning the turnover battle as they enjoy a +13 net turnover margin during their five-game winning streak. They have committed only three turnovers over that span -- and it is not a coincidence that head coach Sean Payton has asked Russell Wilson to throw more than 29 passes only once in their last six games. Payton may be “letting Russ cook” but the portions are smaller. Denver is running the ball, shortening the game, and keeping their defense rested — and this recipe works if the game remains close. Winning the turnover battle is critical. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers — and it has become clear that Payton prefers his quarterback to not get into a pass duel with the opposing quarterback. The Broncos gained only 294 yards last week in their win over the Browns and rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Denver has won the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after posting a +1 net turnover margin in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 292.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games are a loss by three points or less to an AFC South rival. The Texans have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Houston is dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball — and tight end Dalton Schultz is out for this game. But the good news is that wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable this week. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been a revelation by averaging 296. passing YPG with 19 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is Denver’s just fifth game on the road all season — so their stats are propped up by playing seven of their first 11 games on the road (and, apparently, we have to throw out the 70-20 loss at Miami). 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (465) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (303) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a loss at home under head coach Pete Carroll. Their loss to the 49ers finished just above the 43-point total — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. The Seahawks only scored 16 points in their previous game on the road against the Los Angeles Rams when quarterback Geno Smith got knocked out of the game with an elbow injury to his throwing arm. Head coach Pete Carroll claimed it is a “night and day” difference between Smith in practice last week and now in preparation for this game. Seattle has covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Dallas is riding high now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a win by 28 or more points. Since their loss on the road against Philadelphia, they have won three straight games by 23 or more points— but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning three games in a row by 10 or more points. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 55 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: In Seattle’s last 43 games on the road when listed as an underdog in the 7.5-14-point range, they have covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (303) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago had a 98.2% win probability to beat the Lions with just 4:15 minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they then gave up two touchdowns in those final four minutes to blow that game. The bigger takeaway from that result is that this Bears team is better than their record. They have -3 net losses in their four games decided by one scoring possession. They are only getting outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game which is the type of mark for a 5-6 or even 6-5 team. They have played four games without starting quarterback Justin Fields — and the third-year pro is playing better after a slow start to the season. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Detroit last week. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. The defense is playing better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 284.0 total YPG and only 22.7 PPG. In their last three games, the Bears are outgaining their opponents by +49.3 net YPG despite relying on rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in two of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spreads as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after losing two of their last three games. Minnesota endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Broncos last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings have held their last two opponents to just 65 and 46 rushing yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not giving up more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games.  

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point home underdog on October 15th. Despite Fields suffering the hand injury that kept him out for a month in that game, the Bears still outgained the Vikings by a 275-220 margin in yards fueled by a rushing attack that gained 162 yards by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION:  Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th. Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens offense is getting most of the attention for head coach John Harbaugh’s team after they scored at least 31 points in their fifth straight game — but the play of the Baltimore defense deserves more attention. They held the Bengals to just 272 yards last week in their 14-point victory. The Ravens are holding their opponents to just 273.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.1 Points-Per-Game — and their defense has been stingy on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 256.0 total YPG and 16.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after beating an AFC North rival. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Ravens have played 41 of their last 63 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. Baltimore has played two straight Overs with both those contests seeing 54 or more combined points — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they are averaging -31.7 fewer YPG than their season average — and that is resulting in them scoring -3.8 fewer PPG away from home. To compound matters, Lamar Jackson will be without his favorite target Mark Andrews after he suffered an ankle injury last week that will keep him out for an extended period. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total as a favorite in general. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Chargers have covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Los Angeles did generate 6.57 Yards-Per-Play against the Packers last week — but they have then played 35 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Ravens have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite back on November 12th. Atlanta (4-6) suffered their third straight upset loss in their 25-23 loss at Arizona as a 2-point underdog on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only managed 280 yards of offense against the Vikings' defense in their last game. Quarterback Derek Carr got knocked out of that contest — but he has cleared the concussion protocol and will play in this game. New Orleans only managed a field goal in the first half of that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They only rushed for 65 yards as well against Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. The Saints have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 298.5 total Yards-Per-Game which results in their home hosts scoring 18.2 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Their loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago was preceded by a 31-28 loss at home to Minnesota — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by three points or less. The Falcons return home where they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle lost a tough one last week with Jason Myers missing a potential game-winning field goal as time expired against the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. He did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning kick. They will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury — but that opens the door for rookie Zach Charbonnet to demonstrate what he can do as the featured back after starring in college at Michigan and then UCLA. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle knows this 49ers team very well after playing them three times last season after losing to them in the playoffs on the road by a 41-23 score. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games under head coach Pete Carroll after losing their previous game on the road. San Francisco is healthy again on offense with wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams back from injury — but they suffered a big blow on the other side of the line of scrimmage last week after All-Pro safety Talanga Hufanga injured his knee which will keep him out the rest of the season. The 49ers go back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points including failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). Best of luck for us -- Frank.       

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 31-19 upset loss at home against the New York Giants as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (7-3) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 33-10 victory at Carolina as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Commanders generated 403 yards of offense last week — but it was six turnovers that did them in. Despite their losing run, the Washington offense is beginning to click under first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy. In their last three games, the Commanders are generating 397.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are scoring a healthy 24.0  Points-Per-Game in their last four games despite only reaching 19 points last week. But the defense has been a disaster for Washington. They rank last in the NFL by allowing 27.7 PPG — and they have given up 29 or more points in three of their last four contests. They are 29th in the league by giving up 372.8 YPG — and that mark rises to 398.0 YPG when they are playing on the road. The biggest problem has been their secondary as the Commanders are giving up 259 passing YPG which is the third most in the NFL. Washington has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with six days or less of rest. And while the Cowboys average 32:31 minutes per game in Time of Possession, the Commanders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who average 32 or more minutes per game with the football. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Cowboys are scoring 39.0 PPG in their last four games while reaching at least 33 points in three of those games. Quarterback Dak Prescott has produced a Passer Rating of 119 in his last five contests. The Dallas defense has held their last three opponents to just 217.0 total YPG in their last three games — but they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 225.0 or fewer YPG. The Cowboys have benefited from facing a slate of mediocre quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (twice), Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Joshua Dobbs (with Arizona), and Zac Wilson. Sam Howell may remind everyone about the significant loss which was the season-ending injury to cornerback Trevor Diggs. Dallas returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20  home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Washington-Dallas CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia comes into this Super Bowl rematch with confidence and momentum. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory at home against an NFC East rival. The Philly defense has struggled lately after the Cowboys generated 6.25 Yards-Per-Play to gain 406 yards against them — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Washington generated 6.94 YPP for 472 yards against them in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing 375 or more yards in two straight contests and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after allowing their last two opponents to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They have also covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack — and that will help protect his defense. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average 32 or more minutes of Time of Possession on offense. The Chiefs only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. They scored all 21 of their points in the first half and almost blew their three-touchdown halftime lead. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a halftime lead of 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after leading by 21 or more points at halftime in their last contest. The Chiefs return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Andy Reid is great coming off the bye week — but that is a straight-up number that does not take the point spread into account. For the record, the Eagles have covered the point spread in their two regular season games off the bye week under Sirianni. More importantly, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Broncos have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG at home where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite of three points or loss. Minnesota followed up their upset victory on the road against Atlanta with their upset win at home against the Saints last week. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. And while they raced out to a 24-3 halftime lead last week, they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 21 or more points in their last contest. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 8 straight Unders from Weeks 10 through 13. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 20-6 loss at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored only 22 combined points in their last two games with rookie Will Levis under center. They gained only 209 total yards last week against the Buccaneers defense. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while they covered the point spread only once in their last five games, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars scored their lone field goal in the first half last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half in the previous game. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. A -4 net turnover margin held Jacksonville back last week — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in games played in November — and Tennessee has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should rebound with a strong effort after getting their winning streak on their home field by that plucky Texans team. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a loss by six points or less. The Cincinnati defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. While Houston generated 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury. Baltimore stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when favored.
 
FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss including covering the point spread in their last four opportunities for revenge from an upset setback. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION:  Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th. Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 317 total yards last week on the road against the Bengals. Their defense allowed 397 total yards to Cincinnati who averaged 7.49 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They did limit the Bengals to just 54 rushing yards — and they have played 9 of their last 14 Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Buffalo’s run defense is playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have not given up more than 96 rushing yards in three straight games. This run defense will be critical in slowing down the Broncos offense that has become run-first to compensate for the limitations of Russell Wilson at this point in his career. Wilson only attempted 19 passes against the Chiefs while running the ball 40 times. Denver has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit upset win as an underdog getting six or more points. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a double-digit victory. The Broncos' focus on running the ball is helping their defense as well as they have not given up more than 19 points in their last three games. All three of those games finished Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. The Broncos have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13 — and 6 of the last 8 games between these teams in Buffalo have finished Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The best unit in this game is the New York defense which is almost single-handedly keeping them in the playoff hunt. The Jets have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets limited Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. After their embarrassing effort on national television on Monday, they should play better on, yet again, national television tonight. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by 21 or more points. And after the Giants only gained 194 yards against them two weeks ago, the Jets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. Las Vegas played their best game of the season last week as the locker room came together to celebrate that the Wicked Witch of the West, head coach Josh McDaniels, had been sacked. I am encouraged by the leadership qualities of interim head coach Antonio Pierce — but it is difficult for any football team to sustain high emotions for multiple weeks at a time. The Raiders have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games — but they have ten failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. The Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I have one nice thing to comment about Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson: he has thrown only one interception in his last six games this season. He may have a short leash if he struggles with the near-permanent Aaron Rodgers backup, Tim Boyle, waiting in the wings. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-16 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on November 2nd. Tampa Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 39-37 loss at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans only rushed for 105 yards against the Steelers' defense last week with the offense relying on the arm of rookie quarterback Will Levis who passed for 262 yards. With this being his third NFL start, the initial book is being written on the former Kentucky QB — so he will likely experience some growing pains sooner rather than later as opposing defensive coaches discover his tendencies and weaknesses. Tennessee has not scored more than 16 points in five of their eight games this year — and they have failed to score more than 16 points in three of their last four contests. The Titans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. Additionally, Tennessee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tampa Bay had not scored more than 18 points in three straight games before exploding for their highest-scoring output of the season. But the Buccaneers got torched by C.J. Stroud who broke a rookie quarterback passing record with 443 passing yards. Head coach Todd Bowles was embarrassed by the play of his defense — and he certainly worked his team and coaching staff hard this week to take care of business against another first-year QB this afternoon. Tampa Bay has a solid defense still that has held five of their opponents to 20 points or less. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These Totals set in the 30s are dangerous — like the trouble that may triggered by uttering “Beetlejuice”, I fear even mentioning the two other units that can score touchdowns besides the offense. A non-offensive touchdown puts these Unders at severe risk — but the betting public knows that too. Frankly, these teams play a lot of Overs — and I considered the Over strongly. But the reason why these teams are playing so many higher-scoring games is because they have played some of the better offenses in the league. Both of these teams are improving on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina held the Texans to only 229 total yards of offense two weeks ago — just before C.J. Stroud then set a rookie record for passing yards last week when he torched a good Tampa Bay defense for 470 passing yards. They then held the Colts to just 198 total yards — but two Bryce Young interceptions were returned for touchdowns (not going to say Beetlejuice) in that contest to launch Indianapolis to 28 points. Young only had four interceptions going into that game — and the Panthers have just 11 turnovers on the season. Expect head coach Frank Reich to dial up a conservative game plan like he did in their 15-13 win against Houston. Carolina trailed by a 20-3 score at halftime against Indy — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Carolina offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 97 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. It was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance — but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is limiting his passes down the field and opponents are getting a book on him now (and not getting fooled by an opening bomb in their first series as if that suggests the playbook is opening up). Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. Al Michaels will be especially grumpy that his immense talent is wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage) — but he will cheer up when discovering he will be early for his dinner reservations at Gene and Georgetti’s as this is going to be a quick game with fewer offensive possessions. The Bears have played 32 of their last 53 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on Thursday nights. 20* NFL Carolina-Chicago Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS:  Al Michaels will be especially grumpy tonight that his “immense” talent is being wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage). These are not good football teams — but there is more reason for optimism with the Bears playing at home at Soldier Field tonight. They have some building blocks. D.J. Moore is the difference maker at wide receiver that the Panthers’ rookie quarterback Bryce Young really needs (of course, Moore was the necessary piece for Chicago to trade their number one pick to Carolina so they could draft Young). Tremaine Edmunds is a playmaker being asked to take the traditional Bears’ middle linebacker role heralded by Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary, and Brian Urlacher. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. And while running back Khalil Herbert is not likely to be activated off the injured list for tonight’s game, the Bears rushing attack is in good hands with the underappreciated veteran D’Onta Foreman who will have revenge on his mind tonight facing his former team. Foreman ran the ball 20 times of 83 yards last week against a good Saints’ defense — and now he returns home where he is generating 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. The Bears outgained New Orleans on the road last week by a 368 to 301 margin — but it was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up loss. The Panthers' offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Panthers go back on the road where they are winless in four games while getting outscored by -15.8 net Points-Per-Game. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a two-game home stand. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games on the road including failing to cover the point spread in all four of their games away from home this season. And while the Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Panthers are dealing with a bevy of injuries impacting what was already a suspect roster — most notably, their best defensive player Brian Burns is out with a concussion, safety Jeremy Chin is on injured reserve, and wide receiver D.J. Chark is doubtful.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago returns home where they are outgaining their opponents by +71.2 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after losing their last two games on the road. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.