At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City comes into this game with momentum after upsetting the Bills on the road. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 292.5 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 17.1 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 22 of their 31 road games in the Reid as an underdog — and they covered all four of their road games as an underdog in the last three seasons. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 21 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Ravens outrushed the Texans last week by +191 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after outrushing their last opponent by +100 or more yards. Baltimore earned the right to host this game with the best record in the AFC — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: I appreciate what this Bills team has done in the second half of the season — and after enduring a torturous campaign last year where they were dealt emotional challenge after emotional challenge while still trying to get over psychic trauma of losing in the final nine seconds to this Chiefs team in the playoffs — this team has a better perspective that a season is a marathon rather than a sprint. If both teams were at full health and playing on equal rest, I might have invested in Buffalo in this showdown. But I do not like this situation for the Bills — especially when now laying up to a field goal. The Chiefs have two extra days of rest for this contest after completing their win against the Dolphins last Saturday afternoon as opposed to the Bills finishing their game with the Steelers two days later given the postponement from the Sunday kickoff due to weather. Then there is the Buffalo injury list with various maladies beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo. The Bills come on a six-game winning streak — but too often they perform better after facing recent adversity. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have covered the spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. No one embodies this maddening inconsistency than Josh Allen who is responsible for 41 turnovers in the last two seasons including 22 this year. The Chiefs offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But what should not be underestimated about this Kansas City team is the defense under Steve Spagnuolo who has won four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants and now the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 straight Unders after not allowing more than nine points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games coming off a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in their last two games. Led by Mahomes, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs will also be looking to avenge two straight losses to the Bills since their epic 42-36 victory in the 2022 playoffs — they last played on December 10th last month with Buffalo pulling off a 20-17 upset victory as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-8) has won two games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 32-9 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Monday. Detroit (13-5) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions earned their first playoff victory since 1991 with their triumph last week. How did they respond? Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson called out Tampa Bay Baker Mayfield by suggesting how good the Buccaneers wide receivers could be if they had a better quarterback. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took two Zoom interviews on Friday for potential head coaching jobs. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took an interview as well. These are the actions of a losing franchise. Head coach Dan Campbell can declare he has changed the culture — but talk is cheap. He still lost his cool a few weeks ago in the game at Dallas by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. You know what teams that have won a playoff game since the final years of the George Herbert Walker Bush administration all have in common: a long list of bad officiating calls that went against them. Get over it. Well, Detroit did — they defeated Matthew Stafford last week in the Prodigal Son’s return to the Motor City for the first time since the blockbuster trade that sent him to Los Angeles. It is as if the Lions won their Super Bowl last Sunday — so cue the job interviews and the trash talk. And I see this as a gigantic letdown spot — especially at this number of laying close to a touchdown. As it is, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win three points or less. They have also fueled to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home after no-cover win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Moving forward, Gardner-Johnson might want to worry about his own play rather than opposing quarterbacks — the Lions have allowed at least 323 passing yards in four straight games while surrendering 353 passing Yards-Per-Game during that stretch. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after giving up at least 275 passing yards in three or more games in a row. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the postseason. Now here comes a gritty Tampa Bay team that comes in under the radar. With cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamal Dean healthy again, the Buccaneers may have the best defense in the league. They have held their last three opponents to just 261.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 10.7 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense and tied for fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. On the other side of the ball, second-year running back Rachaad White has emerged by rushing for at least 75 yards in five of his last seven games. With wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs still have star power that are holdovers from their Super Bowl championship team three years ago. And then Mayfield is at his best when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder rather than with five national television commercial spots. In his last seven games, Mayfield has 16 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay will have revenge on their minds as well after losing at home to the Lions by a 20-6 score on October 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Detroit NBC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th. Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Let’s talk weather first — there is a 75% chance of rain with winds gusting up to 16 miles per hour. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled in the rain earlier in the season at Cleveland when he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 125 yards with only one touchdown pass and an interception in the Niners’ 19-17 loss to the Browns. There are plenty of caveats from that situation. Cleveland’s defense was playing as good as any team in the league at that point of the season — especially at home. Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got injured and left that game — and San Francisco’s offense is much different without either one of those players. And Purdy still orchestrated a late drive to put his team in position to win the game but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed the potential game-winning kick as time expired. Weather is tricky to assess — while the kicking game could be impacted by the wind and rain, the pass rush slows down in wet conditions. The books have not adjusted the point spread nor the Total given these weather updates — so I am not persuaded to change my side assessment. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss to an NFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning vie or six of their last seven games. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game. They are outscoring their guests by +12.2 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are outgaining them by +134.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Green Bay pulled off the shocker last week in Dallas despite surrendering 510 yards and getting outgained by -95 net yards. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after giving up 500 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Now Green Bay stays on the road on a short week and travels west to play the 49ers. The Packers are getting outgained on the road by -12.0 net YPG. Green Bay is very vulnerable on defense. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also suspect— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week. They allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their passes against them — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. Head coach Matt LaFleur was aggressive with his play-calling last week against the Cowboys — and his offense has generated 7.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But Green Bay has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.0 or more YPP under LaFleur.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.  Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles have devolved into a big mess with chaos running through the organization. After beginning the season with Super Bowl aspirations, the team has collapsed — and the finger-pointing is rampant. The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. There is a school of thought that the postseason could refocus this team — but it is also possible that the team fails to provide maximum effort in this lost season with coaching changes seeming on the table. Resiliency has not been a characteristic of this team recently. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss against an NFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or more games in a row. And while they got outgained by -116 net yards by the Giants, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants. The Eagles stay on the road where they are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. While the Buccaneers' defense does not get talked about enough, they may have the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG when playing at home — and they have held their last three opponents to just 271.3 total YPG resulting in 11.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers lost at home to the Eagles by a 25-11 score as a 5-point underdog back on September 25th when both of these teams were playing under much different circumstances. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the xBuffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win on the road against an AFC North rival. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game while leading the offense to 473 total yards — and Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG which has helped them post a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +98.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be without their best defensive player T.J. Watt given his MCL knee injury. They lost six of their seven games when he was out with an injury last season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Buffalo CBS-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit comes into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Lions have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. This Lions team has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace. Detroit will play before a rabid crowd tonight that has not hosted a playoff game in the downtown area since the Bobby Layne era (their last playoff game took place at the Silverdome about an hour north in Pontiac). Detroit is generating 408.8 total YPG at home resulting in 30.5 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +8.9 PPG. The Lions have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win by three points or less against an NFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games following a win on the road against a divisional foe. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday. Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins had an opportunity to claim the second seed and face the Bills once again in South Beach this week — but their loss last Sunday night puts them very much behind the eight ball in the Wild Card round. It’s bad enough for them that they played the late game on Sunday night and now play on the road on a short week against the Chiefs. And the weather conditions in Kansas City are perhaps their worst nightmare. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. Miami is also a M*A*S*H unit right now with a bevy of injuries headlined by Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard out on defense — and they had to sign veterans off the street this week to fill out their defensive end depth chart (and they are expected to play tonight). Head coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. Now it is dangerous to discount a team in wounded animal mode like the Dolphins are — but this sentiment helped motivate my backing them last Sunday night at home in that crucial game against Buffalo. Perhaps they win (or at least cover the point spread as the home underdog) if not for the Bills’ 96-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second half that changed the momentum of that game. But the fact remains that the Dolphins did not score in the second half while getting outgained by -198 net yards with the offense only generating 275 total yards. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 road games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last contest. The Dolphins' defense is faltering lately as they have given up 434.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Kansas City has experience playing in this cold weather — especially in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes commented that the practices in these conditions are worse because they do not have the benefit of heaters on the sidelines. Mahomes also throws a crisper ball than Tagovailoa bites through the wind — so the Chiefs should have a net edge in the passing game. Playing at Arrowhead Stadium already gives Kansas City a big advantage as it is — they are outscoring their guests by +6.2 net PPG and outgaining them by +106 net YPG due to their outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by three points or less. And while they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-3) has won five straight games and nine of their last 10 contests with their 56-19 victory against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (9-7) has won two straight games after their 30-23 upset victory at Seattle as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs — so head coach John Harbaugh has the luxury of resting several of his key starters. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, wide receivers            Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton are not expected to play — and players like left tackle Ronnie Stanley may not get much playing time when push comes to shove. But roster limits prevent head coaches from benching all their starters in situations like this. Baltimore prides themselves on their roster depth — and they have demonstrated during their 24-game winning streak in the preseason that they do not compromise on their commitment to winning games. So while their best players will not play in this one — don’t underestimate how much they would like to ruin their arch-rival's opportunity to make the playoffs. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after scoring 40 or more points. Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback who has a career 65.6% completion percentage. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 6 straight games at home as an underdog. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh will have the burden of expectations since they must win this game — and then get help from some other results — to have a chance to earn a wild card spot in the AFC playoff race. The Steelers have pulled off two straight upset victories to create this opportunity after their 34-11 upset win at home against Cincinnati two weeks ago. But Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Pittsburgh has scored 64 combined points in their last two games — but this remains an offense that had not scored more than 16 points in their previous three games on the road. Mason Rudolph has provided a spark for the offense — but he has not been nearly as effective on the road in his career than he has at home, despite his good performance against the Seahawks last week. Rudolph completes 65.6% of his passes at home with 12 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in his career — but on the road, he is completing only 58.7% of his passes with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions.   

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens not only want to screw their arch-rival's playoff chances — but they will also want to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 5-point road favorite on October 8th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the opportunity to exact revenge — and the underdog is 23-5-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings between these AFC North rivals. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Baltimore ABC-TY/ESPN Special with the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota’s 390 yards last week against the Lions was one more yard than they allowed — but they fell short because of a -3 net turnover margin. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss at home. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. Mullens threw for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have given up 57 combined points in two straight games — they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. The Vikings stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Green Bay got outgained by -25 net yards last week after surrendering 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-8) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-23 upset loss to New England as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-10) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 24-22 loss to Buffalo as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week with the expectation that the team would play better after Brandon Staley was finally fired. Getting rid of the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West united the team much like the Las Vegas Raiders have rallied around each other after their hated head coach Josh McDaniels was let go. While the Raiders continue to fight for their interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the hope that owner Mark Davis will tap him as their permanent boss, there is little chance that the Chargers interim head coach Giff Smith will be given the permanent job. Last week was likely a dead cat’s bounce for this team. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by seven points or less. The Chargers benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Bills — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They only rushed for 98 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last game. This group is a M*A*S*H unit right now. The offense is without quarterback Justin Herbert along with wide receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and now even Joshua Palmer who played last week. The defense is missing Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray among several players. Denver has their opportunity to demonstrate how good they can be once a toxic individual is removed from the equation with Russell Wilson now benched to ensure he does not get injured which would trigger a $37 million guarantee in his contract in March. Many of Wilson’s teammates consider him phony with his NDAs and past disclosures that he was celibate before marrying his supermodel wife (I’m not throwing shade about celibacy — but bragging about it begins to draw attention). It was only last week when Wilson proclaimed how happy he was to be running his Seattle offense again where he could take advantage of his legs. That, frankly, is a lie since he was very vocal about wanting to emulate the second half of his career like Drew Brees where he relied on his arm — it’s the entire foundation for him getting out of Seattle because they would not “let him cook.” These teammates saw Wilson sign his $242 million extension while gaining 20 pounds last year — that must have been Nathaniel Hackett’s fault too. Yep, I think the Broncos are going to step up their effort with Wilson exiled. Head coach Sean Payton likes Jarrett Stidham which is why he signed him as a free agent away from the Raiders. Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss by six points or less. Denver has not covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against AFC rivals. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson has had great success in his career against teams from the NFC opponents — Baltimore has a 16-1 straight-up record in non-conference games with Jackson under center. The conventional wisdom is that teams unfamiliar with Jackson struggle to adapt to his unique skill set. Most teams do not have a player close to his talents who can come close to replicating his actions to practice against. The 49ers lack a speedy linebacker or safety who can effectively spy against him during the game. Furthermore, in Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top-five in total defense, the Ravens have won all five of those games while scoring more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. While that 16-1 straight-up record against the NFC does not take into account the point spread, it certainly is an intriguing number when Baltimore is an underdog. Jackson combines with an outstanding defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense and sacks. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore rushed for 251 yards against the Jaguars — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 road games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. San Francisco actually got outgained by -30 net yards last week against the Cardinals. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after giving up 6.0 or more YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. And while the 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 20* NFL Baltimore-San Francisco ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-6) has lost three games in a row after their 23-7 loss to Baltimore as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-7) has won three games in a row with their 34-20 upset victory at Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Jacksonville is expected to play this afternoon after clearing the concussion protocol yesterday and then getting through the pre-game drills on the field earlier this afternoon. Obviously, his presence on the field makes a big difference in backing the Jaguars as a road favorite as opposed to C.J. Beathard. Jacksonville was held scoreless in the first half last week in their loss to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their previous game. Now they go back on the road where they have played well by winning five of their six games. They are outgaining their home hosts by +28.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They are also outscoring the home teams by +6.8 Points-Per-Game while holding them to just 19.1 PPG. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Additionally, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 28 passes for 381 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in his spectacular effort against the Packers — but Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tampa Bay returns home where they are just 3-3 and scoring only 16.3 PPG. The Bucs are getting outscored by -0.7 PPG and outgained by -21.2 net YPG. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when they are the underdogs.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th. Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: A periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and these are too many points for a home dog that will have something to prove now that their unpopular head coach is now gone. Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. We were on Las Vegas for that game — but now after that public embarrassment, expect one of the hardest efforts from this Los Angeles team now that the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West is finally dead. The coordinators' responsibilities remain basically in tact with outside linebackers coach Giff Smith being tapped as the interim head coach for the rest of the season. Like interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the Raiders, Smith is very popular in the locker room — I expect this group to play hard out of professional pride. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. As it is, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles has not covered the point spread in their last two games and they have covered the point spread only once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Look for the Chargers to attempt to run the ball more to protect their defense and ask less of backup quarterback Easton Stick (playing for Justin Herbert who is out the season) as they have not rushed for more than 92 yards in four straight games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bills have not allowed more than 17 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last two games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a home game that finished Under the Total. Buffalo got their ground game going by rushing for 266 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after rushing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Much of the Bills’ success has been protecting the football as they have won the turnover battle in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Buffalo has not been dominant on the road this season where they have a 2-5 record. While they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +64.0 net Yards-Per-Game, they are outscoring their home hosts by just +1.9 PPG and outgaining them by +14.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: After a three-week gauntlet where they played at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, and then home at Dallas in a must-win game, don’t be surprised if the Bills exhale in this contest. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Buffalo-LA Chargers Peacock Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals outlasted the Vikings last week despite getting outgained by -46 net yards and allowing the Nick Mullens-led offense to gain 424 yards against them. Cincinnati has averaged 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after generating 375 or more YPG in their last three contests. Quarterback Jake Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati is also allowing their home hosts to average 380.8 YPG and 25.5 PPG. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while the Steelers have not covered the point spread during their three-game losing streak, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. If there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG. But after gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured, Rudolph does have experience as he has ten career NFL starts under his belt — and he is trusted by Tomlin which is why he has remained with the franchise over his six-year career. The Steelers have a good opportunity to have success running the football given the season-ending injury to defensive tackle D.J. Reader who is one of the best run defenders in the league. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score 14 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh generated 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry for 153 rushing yards against the Bengals defense even with Reader patrolling the line of scrimmage in their 16-10 victory in Cincinnati on November 26th. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss by seven points or less. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans remains firmly in the NFC playoff race as they are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South while being in a multi-team tie for the second and third spots in the NFC wildcard race. The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans preceded their dominant victory against the Giants with a 28-6 victory against Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after winning their last two games by 14 or more points. The Saints have failed to rush for more than 97 yards in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight games. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG resulting in only 19.0 PPG — and they are outscoring these teams by +3.3 PPG and outgaining them by +47.6 net YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams are healthy again and feasting on subpar teams — but quarterback Matthew Stafford has lost all four of his starts this season against a top-ten scoring defense. And on the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald has not been as dominant — in his last four games, he has only eight tackles, one tackle for loss, and just 0.5 sacks. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not retain much home-field advantage in that market — they have failed to cover the point spread in 45 of their last 70 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The good news on the injury front for New Orleans is that wide receiver Chris Olave is “good to go” to take the field tonight after he missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury. The Saints have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the final four weeks of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens generated 449 yards of offense against the Rams' defense despite being without the injured tight end Matt Andrews. Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season — but now they go on the road where those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Jacksonville has only won two of their last four games — but they have amped things up on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 29.0 PPG since only managing a field goal in their loss to San Francisco back on November 12th. The Jaguars have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests after their 21-18 upset loss to New England as a 5.5-point favorite back on December 7th. Indianapolis (7-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: I expected Pittsburgh to respond to their upset loss at home to Arizona with another flat effort at home as a favorite to a struggling Patriots team. The Steelers did not seem ready to play in that game on a short week despite playing at home in a prime time audience. They dug themselves a big hole by spotting New England a 21-3 lead midway through the second quarter. Usually, this team responds with good efforts after a bad performance under head coach Mike Tomlin — so that loss to the Patriots was out of character. But Pittsburgh has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by three points or less. The Steelers have only covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Despite their recent struggles, Pittsburgh is still outgaining their opponents by +65.0 net Yards-Per-game. While Mitchell Trubisky has been spotty in replacing the injured Kenny Pickett at quarterback, the Steelers' defense remains stout. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.0 total YPG resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they have a 3-2 record due to their defense holding their home hosts to only 17.6 PPG. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog of up to three points. The Steelers should be able to get their ground game going with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against this Colts defense that allows 132 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has been pretty fortunate to remain in the AFC playoff hunt as they got outgained in yardage in four of their last five games despite winning four of those contests. The Colts have won five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. Winning close games has obscured that they are getting outscored and outgained in yardage for the season. Indy has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are only 2-4 this season. They are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG at home while getting outgained in yardage. The Colts are allowing their guests to generate 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in the ground game and 380.3 total YPG resulting in 28.8 PPG. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is out with a thumb injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Indianapolis NFL Network Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: While both of these teams are dealing with a host of injuries, the internal cohesion of these two squads is quite different. For Las Vegas, the Wicked Witch of the West, Josh McDaniels, has already been fired — so the locker room is happy. The players like interim head coach Antonio Pierce — and the former New York Giants star linebacker remains a candidate to be named the head coach moving forward. The team has consistently played hard for him since he took over — and they have taken the field for him despite being on the injured list during the week. So while defensive end Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams are listed as questionable, I expect both to play. Crosby did not practice this week which is not unusual on a short week. Adams came down with an illness yesterday but he should be able to play through it 36 hours later. Crosby and Adams will be the best two players on the field if they play tonight — and that is a consideration I undervalued earlier this year when the Raiders hosted Green Bay. Superstars matter — especially in games between two mediocre teams. Running back Josh Jacobs' questionable status is more in doubt with a quad — but if he plays, Pierce says it will be the “Josh Jacobs Show” and we should be in great shape. Even if he doesn’t, home-field advantage should help pave the way for this team. Las Vegas has been solid at home with a 4-3 record along with a +2.0 net Points-Per-Game margin and a +6.7 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Raiders' defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to three points. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in their last game. The expectation is that Pierce will turn back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after not committing to a starter after the offense failed to score a point. As long as it is not Brian Hoyer, the Raiders offense should rebound with a better effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. The story of Los Angeles is much more dire. Their season is done after the season-ending right finger injury to quarterback Justin Herbert last week. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons. Head coach Brandon Staley will almost certainly be fired at the end of the season (although I thought he was a goner last year at this time). First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is also likely to be let go — if not, management would have elevated him to be the interim head coach to give him a test run as the potential next head coach. Given comments to the press like from veteran Austin Ekeler, the team does not particularly like Staley with his reckless fourth down decisions and failure to improve the defense. In hindsight, his resume from being the defensive coordinator during the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl run seems to be thanks to the presence of Aaron Donald. I’m skeptical regarding the kind of effort the Chargers’ players are going to provide tonight for their lame-duck coaches. Injuries leave the remaining talent thin. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. And on the other side of the ball, defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is out tonight with a sprained foot. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (132) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th. Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should be motivated to embrace the spoiler role at home against the Packers — and they will benefit from the extra week off to rest and prepare for their opportunity to play in front of a nationally televised audience. The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their victory against the Patriots came on the heels of a 12-point upset victory against Washington — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. After forcing six turnovers against the Commanders, the Giants posted a +2 net turnover margin against the Patriots with three takeaways — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. They stay at home for this one where they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Green Bay goes back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG. And while the Giants are allowing 136 rushing YPG, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. Furthermore, while New York is getting outscored by -11.0 net PPG this season, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (132) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th. Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the Dallas Super Bowl as they both host their arch-rivals and have the opportunity to post their first victory against a team with a winning record this season. Head coach Mike McCarthy missing time this week after an emergency appendectomy is not ideal — but the team had extra days to rest and prepare for this rematch from just last month so I don’t consider those circumstances substantial enough to change the play. The Cowboys' offense has been on another level since their bye week when McCarthy decided to be more aggressive in the passing game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has in his entire career — he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has stepped up as a dangerous second option to CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Left tackle Tyron Smith is playing at a very high level again. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The Cowboys' defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — but they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 30 or more points. The Cowboys stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 15 games going back to last season. They are generating 438.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 41.0 PPG this season — and they are outscoring their guests by +24.2 net PPG with their defense only allowing 15.8 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points. I don’t love fading a team that just got beat by 23 points — but this looks like a lull period for the Eagles who are in a terrible situational spot. Teams tend to struggle after playing the physical 49ers in the previous week — and this has been a  brutal stretch of games for Philadelphia having previously played Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. Philly surviving this stretch with a 3-2 mark was considered a very acceptable result before the season started — and they have already clinched that accomplishment even with a loss tonight. The Eagles have been getting by with smoke and mirrors as well — they have been outgained in yardage in five straight contests. Furthermore, their net point differential mark of +58 points is a historically low number — since 2008, that mark ranks 56 of the 58 NFL teams that had won at least ten games after Week 13. Philly’s linebackers have been a weak link — and the defense is not generating enough pass rush. Since Week Eight, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL with a sack rate of 4.4% — and their 10 sacks during that span that ranks 27th in the league. Their sack rate of 5.3% on third down this season ranks 30th in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 260 YPG — and they rank 31st in the league in touchdown passes allowed. In their last four games, they are allowing 29.0 PPG. The Eagles have not been resilient lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have only scored six and seven points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their blowout loss to the 49ers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Prescott thrives against divisional rivals — he has a 30-8 straight-up record in starts against the NFC East with 72 touchdown passes and only 20 interceptions while posting a Passer Rating of 101. Against the Eagles at home at A&T Stadium, Prescott has a 5-1 career record with 12 touchdown passes. In the their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th, Dallas got inside the Eagles’ territory in their final four possessions but only came away with nine points due to some unusual circumstances. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. New England (2-10) has lost five games in a row after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: In this ugly matchup being played on a short week, if there is one reliable element to this contest, it is how head coach Mike Tomlin gets his team to respond after a bad loss. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after an upset loss by double-digits. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. And they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after playing a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. Pittsburgh did outgain the Cardinals by +35 net yards in the loss. They will have running back Najee Harris available for this game after being listed as questionable with a knee injury. And backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky should play better tonight with a few days of preparation as the starter for the injured Kenny Pickett. He was solid in relief on Sunday completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards while accounting for the lone touchdown with his pass to Dionte Johnson. Trubisky has a career 31-25 record as a starting quarterback. The Steelers' defense has been outstanding this season — after holding Arizona to just 282 total yards last week, they have held their last three opponents to just 254.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has held eight of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less. They face a woeful Patriots offense that has not scored more than seven points in three straight games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in 11 straight contests. New England has failed to score more than seven points five times this season. The offensive line has struggled. The wide receiver room lacks speed. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be the best playmaker on offense but he is out with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver Demario Douglas is also out. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and asking him to be the bell cow back on a short week is ambitious. Mac Jones deserved getting benched — but Bailey Zappe is not in a position to do much better. His decent numbers last season were helped by a soft slate of defenses he was fortunate to face. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He is averaging a mere 4.7 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has a QBR of 50.2. On the road, the Patriots are generating only 285.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.8 PPG. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. And while the Patriots have covered the point spread only once in their last nine contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to lose three games in a row despite not giving up more than 10 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the  Pittsburgh Steelers (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (473) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-3) has won two straight games after their 24-21 victory as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: A weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. The Jaguars have won 13 of their last 16 games going back to last season — but there is a perception in some ranks of what this team is (already) that does not match their underlying metrics. Don’t get me wrong: Jacksonville may someday win a Super Bowl with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. I just don’t think they are there yet. The Jaguars are only outgaining their opponents by +1.8 net Yards-Per-Game. They have a 3-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. They benefit from playing in a weak division (but that seems to be changing). Lawrence has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last four weeks. In their last three games, Jacksonville has scored only 20.3 PPG. And in their five games at home, they are generating just 303.6 total YPG which is resulting in only 20.0 PPG. The Jaguars are 6-0 on the road — but they have a 2-3 record at home while getting outscored by -4.4 PPG and getting outgained by -54.6 net YPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. They have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. And while they have gained 389 and 445 total yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after gaining 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Cincinnati is not going to make the playoffs since Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury — but this is a proud team that can play the role of the spoiler tonight. Jake Browning completed 19 of 26 passes last week but for only 227 yards — but wide receiver Tee Higgins returns to action tonight after missing the last three games due to injury. His presence will make a big difference since he is the target that can punish opposing defenses when they double-cover Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. In defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, I Trust — and the Cincy defense should travel tonight. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 56 road games during Weeks 10-13.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals should be competitive tonight — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road as an underdog and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (473) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-17 victory at Las Vegas as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (5-6) has won three of their last four games after their 29-22 upset win against Detroit as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory against an AFC West rival in their last game. They have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Chiefs' defense is outstanding as they are holding their opponents to 290.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 16.5 PPG. Look for head coach Andy Reid to get his ground game cranking up against a Packers defense that has allowed 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games which has resulted in 165 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset victory against an NFC North rival as an underdog getting six or more points. The Packers have pulled off two straight upset victories after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers at home two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three of their last four contests. Despite those triumphs, Green Bay is allowing their opponents to generate 394.0 total YPG in their last three games— and they are scoring only 23.7 PPG in their last three contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are generating just 325.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.2 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games — and the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (465) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (466). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 24-21 loss to Jacksonville as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (6-5) has won five games in a row after their 29-12 win against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Broncos are demonstrating the importance of winning the turnover battle as they enjoy a +13 net turnover margin during their five-game winning streak. They have committed only three turnovers over that span -- and it is not a coincidence that head coach Sean Payton has asked Russell Wilson to throw more than 29 passes only once in their last six games. Payton may be “letting Russ cook” but the portions are smaller. Denver is running the ball, shortening the game, and keeping their defense rested — and this recipe works if the game remains close. Winning the turnover battle is critical. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers — and it has become clear that Payton prefers his quarterback to not get into a pass duel with the opposing quarterback. The Broncos gained only 294 yards last week in their win over the Browns and rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Denver has won the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after posting a +1 net turnover margin in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 292.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games are a loss by three points or less to an AFC South rival. The Texans have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Houston is dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball — and tight end Dalton Schultz is out for this game. But the good news is that wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable this week. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been a revelation by averaging 296. passing YPG with 19 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is Denver’s just fifth game on the road all season — so their stats are propped up by playing seven of their first 11 games on the road (and, apparently, we have to throw out the 70-20 loss at Miami). 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (465) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (303) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a loss at home under head coach Pete Carroll. Their loss to the 49ers finished just above the 43-point total — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. The Seahawks only scored 16 points in their previous game on the road against the Los Angeles Rams when quarterback Geno Smith got knocked out of the game with an elbow injury to his throwing arm. Head coach Pete Carroll claimed it is a “night and day” difference between Smith in practice last week and now in preparation for this game. Seattle has covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Dallas is riding high now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a win by 28 or more points. Since their loss on the road against Philadelphia, they have won three straight games by 23 or more points— but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning three games in a row by 10 or more points. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 55 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: In Seattle’s last 43 games on the road when listed as an underdog in the 7.5-14-point range, they have covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (303) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago had a 98.2% win probability to beat the Lions with just 4:15 minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they then gave up two touchdowns in those final four minutes to blow that game. The bigger takeaway from that result is that this Bears team is better than their record. They have -3 net losses in their four games decided by one scoring possession. They are only getting outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game which is the type of mark for a 5-6 or even 6-5 team. They have played four games without starting quarterback Justin Fields — and the third-year pro is playing better after a slow start to the season. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Detroit last week. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. The defense is playing better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 284.0 total YPG and only 22.7 PPG. In their last three games, the Bears are outgaining their opponents by +49.3 net YPG despite relying on rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in two of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spreads as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after losing two of their last three games. Minnesota endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Broncos last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings have held their last two opponents to just 65 and 46 rushing yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not giving up more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games.  

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point home underdog on October 15th. Despite Fields suffering the hand injury that kept him out for a month in that game, the Bears still outgained the Vikings by a 275-220 margin in yards fueled by a rushing attack that gained 162 yards by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle lost a tough one last week with Jason Myers missing a potential game-winning field goal as time expired against the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. He did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning kick. They will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury — but that opens the door for rookie Zach Charbonnet to demonstrate what he can do as the featured back after starring in college at Michigan and then UCLA. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle knows this 49ers team very well after playing them three times last season after losing to them in the playoffs on the road by a 41-23 score. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games under head coach Pete Carroll after losing their previous game on the road. San Francisco is healthy again on offense with wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams back from injury — but they suffered a big blow on the other side of the line of scrimmage last week after All-Pro safety Talanga Hufanga injured his knee which will keep him out the rest of the season. The 49ers go back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points including failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). Best of luck for us -- Frank.       

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia comes into this Super Bowl rematch with confidence and momentum. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory at home against an NFC East rival. The Philly defense has struggled lately after the Cowboys generated 6.25 Yards-Per-Play to gain 406 yards against them — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Washington generated 6.94 YPP for 472 yards against them in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing 375 or more yards in two straight contests and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after allowing their last two opponents to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They have also covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack — and that will help protect his defense. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average 32 or more minutes of Time of Possession on offense. The Chiefs only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. They scored all 21 of their points in the first half and almost blew their three-touchdown halftime lead. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a halftime lead of 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after leading by 21 or more points at halftime in their last contest. The Chiefs return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Andy Reid is great coming off the bye week — but that is a straight-up number that does not take the point spread into account. For the record, the Eagles have covered the point spread in their two regular season games off the bye week under Sirianni. More importantly, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should rebound with a strong effort after getting their winning streak on their home field by that plucky Texans team. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a loss by six points or less. The Cincinnati defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. While Houston generated 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury. Baltimore stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when favored.
 
FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss including covering the point spread in their last four opportunities for revenge from an upset setback. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The best unit in this game is the New York defense which is almost single-handedly keeping them in the playoff hunt. The Jets have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets limited Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. After their embarrassing effort on national television on Monday, they should play better on, yet again, national television tonight. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by 21 or more points. And after the Giants only gained 194 yards against them two weeks ago, the Jets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. Las Vegas played their best game of the season last week as the locker room came together to celebrate that the Wicked Witch of the West, head coach Josh McDaniels, had been sacked. I am encouraged by the leadership qualities of interim head coach Antonio Pierce — but it is difficult for any football team to sustain high emotions for multiple weeks at a time. The Raiders have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games — but they have ten failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. The Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I have one nice thing to comment about Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson: he has thrown only one interception in his last six games this season. He may have a short leash if he struggles with the near-permanent Aaron Rodgers backup, Tim Boyle, waiting in the wings. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS:  Al Michaels will be especially grumpy tonight that his “immense” talent is being wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage). These are not good football teams — but there is more reason for optimism with the Bears playing at home at Soldier Field tonight. They have some building blocks. D.J. Moore is the difference maker at wide receiver that the Panthers’ rookie quarterback Bryce Young really needs (of course, Moore was the necessary piece for Chicago to trade their number one pick to Carolina so they could draft Young). Tremaine Edmunds is a playmaker being asked to take the traditional Bears’ middle linebacker role heralded by Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary, and Brian Urlacher. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. And while running back Khalil Herbert is not likely to be activated off the injured list for tonight’s game, the Bears rushing attack is in good hands with the underappreciated veteran D’Onta Foreman who will have revenge on his mind tonight facing his former team. Foreman ran the ball 20 times of 83 yards last week against a good Saints’ defense — and now he returns home where he is generating 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. The Bears outgained New Orleans on the road last week by a 368 to 301 margin — but it was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up loss. The Panthers' offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Panthers go back on the road where they are winless in four games while getting outscored by -15.8 net Points-Per-Game. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a two-game home stand. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games on the road including failing to cover the point spread in all four of their games away from home this season. And while the Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Panthers are dealing with a bevy of injuries impacting what was already a suspect roster — most notably, their best defensive player Brian Burns is out with a concussion, safety Jeremy Chin is on injured reserve, and wide receiver D.J. Chark is doubtful.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago returns home where they are outgaining their opponents by +71.2 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after losing their last two games on the road. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). THE SITUATION: New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York is rounding into form with Zach Wilson under center with three straight victories and a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last four games after their push against the Giants. Despite all the criticism he receives, the Jets have a 9-7 straight-up record with Wilson as their starting quarterback. He has not thrown an interception in four of his last five games which puts his defense in a position to win games. The Jets have an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. My biggest question for the Chargers in my deep dive in the offseason was whether Brandon Staley is really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses. The Chargers rank 28th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN).

FINAL TAKE: On the road, Los Angeles is getting outscored by -4.3 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.3 net Yards-Per-Game due to their porous defense that is allowing 433.0 YPGG which is resulting in 27.3 PPG for their home hosts. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be the Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474).THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer — and the Bengals are the popular choice tonight for the betting public and experts that consider themselves “sharps” tonight. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Cincinnati looks great after their upset win against the Niners last week — but two items that contextualize that upset victory. First, San Francisco was less than full strength in that game missing Trent Williams, arguably the best left tackle in the world, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel who seems to be the critical piece for quarterback Brock Purdy to succeed in the passing game. Second, the 49ers still outgained the Bengals last week by +60 net yards after piling up 460 total yards against them (even without Williams and Samuel). And while that was just the third upset victory by double-digit by Cincinnati in the last three years, they have failed to cover the point spread all 3 times in their next contest. They return home where they are favored by three points or less for just the fourth time in three seasons — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. I think the bettors are neglecting to appreciate just how important this game is for the Bills given the emotions around the Damar Hamlin. Admittedly, Buffalo has been inconsistent this season — but while many decry their flat performances, there are two things I find encouraging about this team when it comes to big games like this. First, they are not trying to win the Super Bowl in September. I think the team was wound up way too tightly last year as if they could quickly resolve the anguish of losing that epic playoff game to Kansas City in the final 12 seconds two years ago. That sentiment was embodied by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s meltdown when the offense failed to execute on a fourth down play that cost them their game in Miami. Head coach Sean McDermott called out his team’s lack of intensity in the preseason — and they have been flat in a few games in the regular season. But after a highly emotional year, playing the long game is sensible. They will be up for this game. Second, while they were lethargic against the New York Giants for that prime-time game earlier this year, their ability to commit and then execute a four-minute and eight-minute offense by sticking with their running game is precisely the missing ingredient this team has lacked the last few seasons. Buffalo has not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight contests. Committing fewer turnovers would certainly help their cause — they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. The Bills have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after posting a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 48 of their last 77 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against those teams in the second half of the season. We were on the Bengals that Monday night game that got canceled — I think they were on the way to winning and covering as an underdog. Now the script has flipped with Buffalo the underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 24-20 win against Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won three games in a row after their 31-24 victory at Arizona as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens handled the Cardinals despite a sluggish effort where they got outgained by -42 net yards after their offense only managed 268 total yards of offense. Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Ravens have scored 69 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. Seattle has improved their defense by acquiring Leonard Williams from the New York Giants at the trade deadline. Head coach Pete Carroll also reunited with pass rusher Frank Clark who he drafted out of Michigan before he went on to win Super Bowls with Kansas City. He was an unsigned free agent this year. This Seahawks defense had already held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less. The Ravens average 143 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and I can certainly envision that the Lions come out tonight and blow the doors off a bad Las Vegas team as they take out their frustrations from getting embarrassed last week against Baltimore. But this Raiders team is feisty when Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy and under center. Like Jared Goff, he is a veteran who has played in the Super Bowl. He has one of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in Davante Adams. Las Vegas has one of the best pass rushers in the game in Maxx Crosby. The Raiders' defense has been playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 20.0 Points-Per-Game allowed. They held the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Chicago only passed for 150 yards in that game — and Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 150 yards in their last game. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. The Raiders have not rushed for at least 100 yards all season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four or more games in a row. Detroit dug themselves a big hole last week which required Goff to throw 53 passes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after a game where they had 50 or more pass attempts. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. The defense has lost cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson along with pass rusher James Houston — and they still have a long injury list that challenges their depth.

FINAL TAKE: Back to numbers, this remains a Detroit team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Dan Campbell and company would be very happy with a win by a touchdown or less. Expect a closer-than-expected game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a train wreck under head coach Brandon Staley who I was fully convinced was going to be let go last season so the organization could write a big check for Sean Payton to come in to steward the golden years of Justin Herbert in the league. And I will probably go on tilt sometime this evening when Staley claims “The Analytics” (always hidden from view to demonstrate what the numbers are actually saying, but never advanced without even the slightest of doubt) justify going for another 4th-and-one on the Chargers’ 20-yard line. But this play is in large part fading a rookie quarterback playing in his road game after never playing Division I college football. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 48 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Chargers have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average. Los Angeles has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing two or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 home games when favored in the 7.5-10-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense that struggles to run the ball should help this short week. Buffalo still ranks as the fourth-best team in the league using the advanced DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss.
The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. They have only rushed for 46 and 74 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Injuries played a significant role in San Francisco’s loss to the Browns last week — and rookie Jake Moody missing a game-ending field goal resulted in the defeat. The Niners will be without wide receiver Deebo Samuel tonight but the reports this afternoon indicate that Christian McCaffrey will take the field tonight. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. This remains the best team in the NFL that leads the league with a +16.2 net Point Differential — and they rank number in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. On offense, they are scoring 30.7 PPG and rank second in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are holding their opponents to 14.5 PPG and 278.0 total YPG — and they rank fourth in Defensive DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics. They have allowed the fewest Big Plays (rushing gains of 10 or more yards and passing gains of 20 or more yards) in the league — and opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 67 against them. They have won the turnover battle in two straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against NFC opponents. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Bears last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings were a prime candidate for a letdown this season after going an incredible 11-0 in one-possession games last year. The Regression Gods have made their presence felt as all six of their games have been decided by eight points or less. Their only wins are against the lowly Carolina Panthers and Chicago. They have given the ball away 13 times in their six games — and the 49ers are the wrong team to offer up extra possessions. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Fading home underdogs on Monday Night Football can be dangerous — but we are talking about Kirk Cousins who has a career 2-10 straight-up record on MNF with 11 interceptions in those contests. Cousins also has a 13-41 straight-up record when playing against playoff teams (which the Niners will most likely be). Missing the injured wide receiver Justin Jefferson leaves the Vikings without their best player — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 49 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won two of their last three games with their 24-16 win against Tennessee in London as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 20-6 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore went into halftime with an 18-3 lead last week which was the third straight game where they went into halftime leading by at least a touchdown. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after leading at halftime by seven or more points in three straight games. And while they have played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. Baltimore is fourth in the NFL by allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +78.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Detroit stays on the road for a second straight week having covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 road games after winning two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas probably had their best week of practice this week after their humiliating 32-point loss to the 49ers. The Cowboys have rebounded to win seven straight games after a loss under head coach Mike McCarthy — and quarterback Dak Prescott has won eight of his last nine games after a loss. Prescott also has a 21-11 record in prime-time games. Dallas has been consistent with good efforts after bad games when it comes to the point spread as well. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by double-digits. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They should play better on defense tonight after giving up 421 total yards last week. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 30 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles gets Austin Ekeler back at running back tonight after outrushing the Raiders by +79 net rushing yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more yards. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week. When handicapping the Chargers, it is hard to not factor in the coaching deficit they usually experience with Brandon Staley leading their team. He’s a lunatic with his decision-making — and his team has been fortunate to escape with the win at Minnesota two weeks ago. Staley was hired because of his work as the defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams — but his defense with the Chargers has been underwhelming. They rank 25th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Los Angeles special teams are bad as well — they rank 30th in the NFL using the DVOA numbers which I tend to believe is a function of the head coach. Remember the blown 27-point lead against Jacksonville in the playoffs last season? Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 45.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers do not have much of a home-field advantage in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium — especially with America’s Team coming to town. In expected close games, the brilliant but injured Herbert may not be able to overcome the missteps of his head coach. Don’t underestimate the motivation Dallas will have in facing their former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (it is Moore who is responsible for their two-minute offense that led to the embarrassing attempt to spike the football that ended their playoff run two years ago against San Francisco). I find it interesting that the books have the Cowboys favored tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the  Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London. New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Regulars will appreciate that I am reluctant to lay this many points in the NFL. Too many things can happen late in the game that spoil the favorite covering point spreads this high. But I do appreciate that these are basically 50-50% propositions. NFL favorites with a money-line price at -800 or higher (roughly laying 13.5 or more points) are 50-50-4 ATS since 2017. I like the Bills to lay it on early and often tonight after their disappointing effort in London last week. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. And in the last 4 occasions where they were playing at home laying more than 14 points, they covered the point spread in all 4 occasions. We have been on the wrong side of this New York team in prime-time games this season. I thought the skepticism regarding this team not being about the same as they were last season was too shortsighted. I think everyone understood that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Last year’s good fortunes did not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. But becoming a M*A*S*H unit certainly does. Even if the Giants had the potential to compete for a playoff spot again, their injury situation is making that impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. I just don’t see this as their turnaround game after losing their last three games by 15 or more points. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a loss by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in all five of their games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have not scored more than 16 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score 17 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams still — and the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when a double-digit underdog including in both their games this season where they lost to San Francisco and Miami by an average of 16.5 points (and by 15 points in both games). All three of Buffalo’s victories this season have been by 18 or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) looks to build off their 26-9 upset victory at New Orleans as a 4.5-point underdog two Sundays ago on October 1st. Detroit (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 42-24 win against Carolina as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit only outgained the Panthers by 35 net yards last week but took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 road games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a Quarterback Rating of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. These disparate home/road splits are continuing this season with Goff enjoying a 113.1 QBR with a 72.9% completion percentage while averaging 267.3 passing YPG with seven touchdown passes and just two interceptions in three starts at home — but in his two starts on the road, he has 90.9 QBR with a 65.1% completion percentage while averaging  231.5 passing YPG with only two touchdown passes and one interception. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. My main question for this team in the offseason regarding whether they were being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement. The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league.  The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image. As we turn the corner in the first corner of the season, the Buccaneers look like a pretty good football team. Their defense is holding their opponents to only 318.5 total YPG which is resulting in only 17.0 PPG. That unit ranks sixth in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Mayfield is completing 69.6 of his passes with seven touchdown passes and only two interceptions — and his QBR of 101.5 is the highest of his career.

FINAL TAKE: I am higher on Bowles as a head coach than many who remember his final few seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets — but he led them to a 10-6 record in his first season before the dysfunction of that organization took over. His teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams —  and double-digits are simply too many points to give up on a short week to a division rival. Certainly, Payton and his coaching staff spent a significant amount of time in the offseason preparing for this game that, in theory, looked critical to their season. I think the Chiefs win comfortably — but they would be quite content with a ten-point victory. Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home during Weeks Five through Nine. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 8 games when favored by double digits, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while this team has allowed 28 or more points in four straight games, Payton’s teams going back to his time with New Orleans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their 29 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-16 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-1) rebounded from their loss to Arizona two weeks ago with a 38-3 victory at home against New England as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: While the Cowboys come off a blowout win against the Patriots (who looked terrible earlier today against New Orleans), they tend to fall flat after big wins like that. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win by 28 or more points. And while their defense looked great at what is a completely inept New England offense (even under Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last contest. The Cowboys have veered the point spread in three of their four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing a light schedule consisting of the New York Giants and Jets, Arizona (in their loss), and New England who now have a combined 4-14 record after the 1 PM ET window, they face a major upgrade in competition tonight. San Francisco has won 14 straight regular season games — and remember that their playoff loss last season was after injuries at quarterback left them without a person capable of executing a forward pass. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning four or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in three of their four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. San Francisco has scored exactly 30 points in all four of their games — and they have covered the points spread in 6 straight home games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. They stay at home for a third straight week where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games as a favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-7 victory against Atlanta in London last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 48-20 loss to Miami as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills raced out to a 31-14 lead to dominate their AFC East rivals whom they played three times last season including in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. Don’t be surprised if this suffers an emotional letdown this week — especially with the challenges of traveling to London this week. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory against an AFC East opponent. After a shaky opening game in prime-time against the New York Jets where Josh Allen’s turnover issues popped up in a loss despite the early injury to Aaron Rodgers, the Bills have won and covered the point spread in three straight games. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The defense does expect to get Von Miller back for the first time this season after his season-ending injury last year — but they will be without defensive end Gregory Rousseau who was having a breakout season rushing the passer this year. The Bills’ defense is banged up for this game with several other players listed as questionable — and they lost star cornerback Tre’Davious White last week to a season-ending Achilles injury. Jacksonville stayed in London all week after beating the Falcons at Wembley Stadium last week. Staying across the pond for the additional time should give them a significant situational edge against the Bills still getting accustomed to the time change — and I tend to like teams that stay on the road together for two weeks since it gives their mission more of a business trip vibe. This contest is a statement game for Jacksonville who want to be considered as a contender to win the AFC Championship but have underperformed so far this season. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. They did enjoy a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last game. They are fourth in the NFL with nine takeaways this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are scoring 34.8 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +21.0 PPG — but head coach Doug Pederson’s teams going back to Philadelphia have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games against teams scoring 29.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more net PPG. 10* NFL Jacksonville-Buffalo London Calling Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia on Sunday. Chicago (0-4) remains winless after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Al Michaels is not going to be happy calling this game between two clubs that have only two combined victories between them going into Week Five — it’s a tough life for the 78-year-old making about a million dollars per broadcast on Amazon Prime through 2024. And it may look tough to lay the six or so points with a Washington team that got crushed by 34 points against Buffalo two weeks ago (even worse: teams coming off an overtime game on Sunday now playing on a short week with a Thursday game have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of these last 24 circumstances according to my database). But Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera usually has his team take full advantage of situations like this. In his tenure at Washington, his teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. And while the Bears are getting outscored by -15.5 Points-Per-Game, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games under Rivera against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. Rivera’s Washington teams also thrive against teams playing bad defense. Chicago is allowing 34.3 PPG and 383.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams allowing 375 or more YPG and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 24 or more PPG. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how good could quarterback Sam Howell be in his second season. While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league. While his game against the Bills was ugly, he has shown flashes of greatness. Against the stout Eagles defense last week, he completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread win and in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, Rivera’s teams going back to his tenure at Carolina have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a loss on the road. Chicago is a dysfunctional mess under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears have lost 14 games in a row after ending the previous season on a ten-game losing streak. Third-year quarterback Justin Fields seems to be drowning under the pressure and scrutiny of being a former first-round pick — and the coaching staff seems to be making his job even more difficult like with decisions to go for it on fourth down rather than kick a go-ahead field goal late in their game with the Broncos last week. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams was dismissed from the team a few weeks ago after some misconduct was discovered by the organization. Eberflus is calling the plays on defense as if he did not need more things on his plate. Wide receiver Chase Claypool is not being dressed for games after he criticized the coaching staff — he is on the trade block. Injuries to cornerback Jaylon Johnson and free safety Eddie Jackson will require Eberflus to start two rookies in their defensive backfield tonight. After ranking last in the NFL with only 32 sacks last year, Chicago remains last in that category this season after registering only two sacks — and they rank second to last in quarterback hits. So while it is far from ideal for the Commanders to be playing on a short week after playing an additional eight minutes of overtime on Sunday, this Bears group is in no position to take advantage of that given all the chaos they are experiencing. The shame of it is that they played their best game of the season for almost three quarters — they took a 28-7 lead over Denver with just over four minutes left in the third quarter. I suspect that loss was deflating and resulted in a hangover that may carry over into this road game for them on a short week. As it is, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have allowed 27 or more points in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE:  The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (279) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (280). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 37-27 win against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) comes off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): After playing flat in their opening game against the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle has scored 37 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. Pundits expecting quarterback Geno Smith to revert to his previous form with the New York Jets are eating crow with home completing 69% of his passes this season. He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage last year while winning the Comeback Player Of the Year Award. Arm talent was never the issue for the former West Virginia quarterback — he was the 39th pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He is more mature now — and he has clearly learned from working with Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. The Seahawks defense has underachieved this season after allowing at least 27 points in all three of their games — but they get back Jamal Adams tonight after missing almost all of last season with the knee injury he suffered in Week One. He will immediately improve their run defense — and he will probably be assigned to rush the quarterback in big nickel schemes with two other safeties on the field. Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in October. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have only scored six points in the first half all season — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Could the team add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. After scoring only 14.3 PPG this season, injuries are making any improvement on that side of the field nearly impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley remains out with his high ankle sprain. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a hamstring injury. It is telling that after only throwing five interceptions last season Jones has already thrown four picks this year. The Giants have a -5 net turnover margin after losing the turnover battle in each of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after losing the turnover battle in two or more games in a row. And then there is the state of the New York defense that has allowed 32 Points-Per-Game in their last five games going back to last season — and they have not forced a turnover in those last five contests. It does not inspire confidence they are starting two rookies at cornerback with Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have lost seven straight games when playing on Monday Night Football — and Jones has a personal 1-11 straight-up record when playing in prime time. 20* NFL Seattle-NY Giants ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (279) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This situation offers the opportunity to remind us that we are betting numbers rather than teams. For Zach Wilson and this Jets’ offense, things cannot get much worse than they have been the last two weeks. But the opportunity to take them getting more than a touchdown with them playing at home is too good to pass up. New York has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 home games when getting 7.5 to 10 points as the underdog. With the nationally-televised audience tonight — and apparently Taylor Swift in the house — look for the Jets to play inspired football like they did when they upset Buffalo in a prime-time game at home at MetLife Stadium in Week One. New York has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by seven points or less to an AFC East rival. They have been outgained by 171 and 215 yards in two straight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in two straight games. The Jets offense has only scored 20 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 20 points in two straight games. The New York defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games after their upset loss to Detroit in Week One — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My biggest question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason was whether the defending Super Bowl champions could maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs replaced eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark. Before crushing the train-wreck Bears last week, Kansas City had only scored 20 and 17 points in their first two games with Mahomes not throwing for 300 net yards in either contest. The supporting cast of wide receivers after tight end Travis Kelce has looked shaky — and remember their eight drops against the Lions were in another nationally-televised prime time game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5-14 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 with an 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has the same record after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay comes into this game with momentum after their win against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory in their last game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And with that game finishing Under the Total, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The main question I had about this team coming into the season was whether they might respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love demonstrated his poise by leading an 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter last week to steal that game against New Orleans. He has been a threat with his legs — he has rushed for 74 yards this season on 14 carries with a crucial touchdown last week. Those numbers are similar to Josh Allen’s 89 rushing yards on 12 carries and Deshaun Watson’s 83 yards on 15 carriers with both mobile QBs also having one touchdown. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. Green Bay stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the points spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. LaFleur expects to get running back Aaron Jones back for this game which should help to get their running game going after not rushing for more than 95 yards in a game yet this season. The Packers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Green Bay is still dealing with some other injuries with left tackle David Bahktiari, left guard Elgton Jenkins, and linebacker De’Vondae Campbell out. They have developed some nice depth on their offensive line with players like Zach Tom able to ease into the starting left tackle position after giving up only one sack in 489 snaps last season. The Lions are still the more banged-up team — starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Their defense is without defensive linemen James Houston and Josh Paschal along with cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Detroit held the Falcons to just 183 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their last game. And while the Lions have not allowed more than 95 rushing yards this season after holding Atlanta to 44 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. The hype surrounding this team is enormous right now with them now having won 10 of their last 13 games — but remember that their most important contest during that stretch was in Week 15 last season when a victory on the road against Carolina would have given them the upper hand in controlling their playoff destiny. But they surrendered 570 total yards to the Panthers in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. Admittedly, Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when favored by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers certainly had this game circled after the Lions spoiled their opportunity to make the playoffs on the last Sunday night game of the regular season at Lambeau Field. Detroit upset them in both games last season — but Goff only completed 37 of his 60 passes (61.7%) for 361 yards in both games with the Lions averaging just 287.5 total YPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 27-24 upset loss to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (1-1) comes off a 30-23 loss to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Joe Burrow remains a game-time decision with his injured calf as of 5:30 PM ET. Even if he does not play and Jake Browning makes his first start of his career, this is a “gotta have it” game for the team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season. The Bengals' defense needs to step up tonight after allowing 382.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. This is a group that ranked fifth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive metrics last season. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by three points or less. They need to get their ground game going to help either Burrow or Browning after rushing for just 66 yards last week while getting outrushed by -112 yards. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to rush for no more than 75 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrushed by -100 or more yards in their last game. Los Angeles is playing hard for head coach Sean McVay — but talent remains a problem for this team just two seasons removed from their Super Bowl championship. The Rams lost 20 players from last year’s team that was just 5-12. They drafted 14 players last April and signed another 26 undrafted rookies — and these young players are the foundation of this team. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp remains out with his hamstring injury. Los Angeles had a -2 net turnover margin last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (477). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 34-28 win against Minnesota as a 6-point favorite back on September 14th. Tampa Bay (2-0) is also unbeaten this season after their 27-17 win against Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles got their ground game going against the hapless Vikings defense in their second game as they rushed for 259 yards. But they have failed to cover the point spread in  8 of their last 13 games after rushing for 250 or more yards. Philadelphia has scored 59 points in their first two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Minnesota only ran the ball nine times in that game — and they picked up only 28 rushing yards. But the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 30 rushing yards in their last contest. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin. After allowing 382 yards to New England in Week One, Minnesota generated another 374 yards against them last week. Tampa Bay has surprised many pundits who expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league despite them outgaining their opponents by +18.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Tom Brady was still effective at quarterback in his swan song season — but his desire to throw the ball left the Buccaneers imbalanced as they were last in the NFL by averaging only 76.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game. It is fashionable to dump on Baker Mayfield — but while he is not going to live up to the hype of being the first pick in the NFL draft, he is still a solid quarterback when healthy. While he is unpopular in the national media, his teammates love him — and he sounds like he has matured since losing the QB job in Carolina last year. His numbers this season are astounding — he is completing 69% of his passes and has yet to commit a turnover. When under pressure this season, Mayfield has completed 15 of 21 passes for 230 yards while posting a QBR of 123. Tampa Bay has converted 20 of their 23 third downs this year. Mayfield has as good of wide receivers as perhaps ever in his career in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With him under center, the team can run the ball a bit more in an attack that is more what head coach Todd Bowles would like to see. The Buccaneers still have many of the players who were on the Super Bowl team in 2021 — nose tackle Vita Via, linebackers Lavonte David, Devin White, and Shaquil Barrett, safety Antoine Winfield, and cornerback Carlton Davis III remain key contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay is allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game and just 302.5 Yards-Per-Game. They have forced five turnovers in their first two games. And the Bucs remain stout in stopping the run under Bowles' leadership — they rank second in the NFL by allowing only 54 rushing YPG. Bowles’ teams going back to the New York Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Tampa Bay ABC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh may have gutted out the win against AFC North rival on Monday after their defense scored two touchdowns — but head coach Mike Tomlin should have had an attentive audience this week after his team got outgained by -153 net yards. The offense has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. But the Steelers have faced two tough defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland who may both have top-five defenses this season. Getting to play against the Raiders should help Pickett have his best game of the season. Las Vegas is only producing pressure on the quarterback on 10.5% of their dropbacks — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 81.7% of their passes. The Steelers defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two straight contests. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week. After playing their first two games at home, they go on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games after a two-game home stand with three covers in their last four games under those circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to three points. Las Vegas opened their season by beating a now 0-3 Denver team that just gave up 70 points this afternoon — but they only scored 17 points in the win. The Raiders may have been exposed last week against the Bills — and a bounce back may not be in the cards as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Is second-year general manager Dave Ziegler simply continuing the mismanagement of talent evaluation that was endemic in the Jon Gruden residency in Vegas with general manager Mike Mayock (plucked away from the television booth)? Ziegler has continued an approach in the NFL draft that appears to be based on only watching nationally televised games in the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time windows. Signing linebacker Chandler Jones as a free agent last season seemed ill-advised — and it has been a disaster with the 33-year-old now away from the team due to personal issues. Mayock buried this roster through years of over-drafting Clemson and Alabama players that were busts on and off the field. And this team is favored? The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won nine of their last 12 games with T.J. Watt healthy and on the field. They have also won four of their five prime-time games with Pickett at quarterback. The Raiders have lost all three of their prime-time games under head coach Josh McDaniels. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (467) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (468). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-1) evened their record this season with their 31-20 upset victory at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (2-0) comes off a 27-24 upset win in Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after a double-digit win. While they will be without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for this game, they are in good hands with the veteran Gardner Minshew who has a career 63.0% completion percentage with 57 touchdown passes and only 24 interceptions. The Colts averaged 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week with Minshew playing most of the game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Remember that Minshew played under Indianapolis rookie head coach Shane Steichen last year when they were both with Philadelphia — so he is very familiar with his schemes. Baltimore is dealing with a bevy of injuries. Offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum are out on offense. The defense will be without safety Marcus Williams and cornerback Marlon Humphrey along with outside linebacker Ode Owen and safety Ar’Darius Washington. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games favored by up to seven points — and the Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. 8* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Indianapolis Colts (467) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). THE SITUATION: New England (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 24-17 loss at home to Miami on Sunday night as a 1-point underdog. New York (1-1) comes off a 30-10 loss at Dallas as an 8-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England will be playing with desperation this afternoon as they look to avoid starting the season 0-3 which will all but ruin their postseason aspirations — especially with two of the losses being against divisional rivals. It is fashionable to dump on head coach Bill Belichick because he has not been as successful as Tom Brady after their split in 2020 — but his teams have not gone worse than 7-9 in the three seasons since (despite being ravaged with roster attrition in that 2020 COVID season). The Patriots reached the playoffs in the 2021 season even with a rookie at quarterback — an achievement that would deserve Coach of the Year accolades if the individual was an “offensive” coach who once sat at the lunch table with Sean McVay. Belichick can still coach — he just has a different mentality that the en vogue methods of the young crop of offensive play-caller/head coaches. The defensive mentality coming from Belichick raises the floor of minimum expectations (like Mike Tomlin) — and that is why his teams have not bottomed out like McVay’s Rams did last season. So let’s keep some perspective: the Patriots lost by one scoring possession to both the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) and an AFC playoff team last week. This remains a team that outscored their opponents last season despite an 8-9 record. Belichick’s Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They were outgained by -101 net yards last week with the Dolphins averaging 6.48 Yards-Per-Play — but New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 6 or more YPP. The Patriots ranked eighth in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 322.0 YPG - and they are only giving up 320 YPG this season despite playing the potent Eagles and Dolphins offenses. The other side of the ball is in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coordinator experiments of last season. Quarterback Mac Jones has a better relationship with O’Brien — and he does lead the NFL in completions this season. He gives the Patriots a big edge this afternoon when compared to the Jets’ Zach Wilson. The third-year pro has been eaten alive by Belichick’s defenses in his career — in his four games starting against New England, Wilson has posted a 50.8 Passer Rating with only two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Jets lost all four games while scoring less than 10 PPG. This is a volatile situation with Wilson their best option under center after the Aaron Rodgers injury — and further failures against the dreaded Patriots today may quickly pick the scab of his unpopularity inside the locker room and with the Jets’ fans. In his 23 career starts, Wilson has 22 interceptions — and he is last in the NFL so far this season in Passer Rating and completion percentage. In theory, New York has a robust rushing attack to help him out — but they only ran for 64 yards last week against the Cowboys. The Jets’ offensive line is a mess with the underachieving Mekhi Bechton at right tackle — and now left tackle Duane Brown is out for this game with a shoulder and hip issues. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: With Tropical Rainstorm Ophelia impacting the Meadowlands, rain and wind are expected for this game. The last time the Patriots started 0-3 was in 2000 — so the Belichick approach of being patient and waiting for the other guy to start making mistakes will likely be the prudent approach under these weather conditions. As it is, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by seven points or less — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog of seven points or less. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by the 49ers last week — but head coach Mike Tomlin should rally his troops in this divisional rivalry game tonight despite injuries to defensive end Cam Hayward and wide receiver Dionte Johnson. The Steelers closed last year strong by winning five of their last seven games — and the reports out of training camp were that they were one of the sharpest teams in the preseason — so that flat effort last week was surprising (and perhaps a statement as to how good the Niners are). Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points. Second-year Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions last week which was out of character for him after he only threw one interception in his last eight starts last season. While he will miss Johnson as one of his targets, he still has second-year wideout George Pickens who is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh deploys two tight ends frequently in this game with rookie Darnell Washington getting plenty of snaps — he is a massive 6’7 target who was underutilized in the passing game at Georgia. The Steelers will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group is much better with a healthy T.J. Watt — they had an 8-2 record when he was healthy last season. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland was impressive at home against a Bengals team that looked rusty on offense after Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason with a calf injury. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped his juice which was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They did outgain the Bengals by +158 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. And in their last 15 games as the favorite, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 19 straight games at home at Heinz Field against the Browns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-1) looks to rebound from their 24-10 loss at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a 16-15 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to play tonight. In his time with the Indianapolis Colts where they posted a winning 40-33-1 record during the regular season, those teams also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a division rival. His teams also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panther endured a -3 net turnover margin in that game — but Reich’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Reich takes over a pretty good roster — the team went 6-6 in their last 12 games after Matt Rhule got fired. They outgained the Falcons last week by a 281 to 221 margin in yardage. Atlanta managed only 91 passing yards — and Reich’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding their last opponent to less than 150 passing yards. New Orleans outlasted the Titans last week — but head coach Dennis Allen’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Allen’s teams in New Orleans and previously with the Oakland Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in September. The Saints will still be without Alvin Kamara who is serving a three-game suspension to begin the year.

FINAL TAKE: Allen’s teams have not been as reliable in situations like this when they are expected to win or be in a close game. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL New Orleans-Carolina ESPN Special with the Carolina Panthers (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (288) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (287). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week than what the Chargers were able to muster. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. What is so frustrating about head coach Brandon Staley for Los Angeles is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a narrow win on the road by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (288) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (279) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (280). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 40-0 loss at home to Dallas as a 3-point underdog last Sunday night. Arizona (0-1) comes off a 20-16 loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE POINTS: A team could not look worse than New York did last week — but the unfolding game script needs to be taken into context. Spotting a team with a great defense like the Dallas Cowboys a special teams touchdown on a blocked field goal (a 10-point swing) and then a 22-yard interception touchdown in the first quarter in a game being played in the rain is a disaster that would overwhelm most/every team in the league. Momentum is real as good thoughts and positivity fuel better performance — and bad thoughts and negativity fertilize the ground that generates mistakes. The Giants are simply not that bad of a team (because no one is) — and now they have something to prove after being embarrassed on national television. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home by double-digits. If there is a silver lining this week for New York, it is that they get to play the tanking Arizona Cardinals. Since a 10-2 start to the 2021 season, the Cardinals have a 5-19 record. Their quarterback Joshua Dobbs was out of the league until December of last season — making him the ideal signal caller for a team trying to not be too obvious that they are trying to lose games. Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and is not likely to play this year. Arizona has Houston’s first-round draft pick next year — and they want to couple that with their own high draft pick in what would be the second season under new general manager Manti Ossenfort. They released wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins because he caught too many passes. The Cardinals defense lost J.J. Watt to retirement and Zach Allen in free agency. Special teamers are now slotted higher up the depth chart and will be expected to play. The soft tank job is in full display. A defensive touchdown made last week’s score look closer than reality. Arizona gained only 13 first downs and managed just 210 total yards. Washington head coach Ron Rivera was content to game-script his way to a four-point victory.                                                                                                

FINAL TAKE: New York was a solid road warrior last year that covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and the Cardinals won only one game at home last season while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games. There will not be many opportunities this season to fade Arizona without having to lay a touchdown this season. 8* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the New York Giants (279) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 24-3 loss at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (1-0) won their first game of the new season with their 25-9 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The annual Baltimore Ravens injury-fest is already in full swing this season — this group is a M*A*S*H unit in just the second week of the season in such a way that makes an already good situation great. On offense, the Ravens' star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and their rock-solid center Tyler Linderbaum are out this week along with top running back J.K. Dobbins who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. On defense, star free safety Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury, and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out with a foot injury. Those are five starters gone for this divisional rivalry game — including two on the offensive line and two in the secondary against Joe Burrow and company — for a team that got outgained by the woeful Texans last week. The offensive line was already facing the challenge of replacing left guard Ben Powers who left in the offseason. And this is an offense in transition under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — they gained only 265 total yards against Houston. Lamar Jackson’s contract dispute was finally settled in the offseason — but the removal of previous OC Greg Roman seems to suggest that Jackson and the organization want to rely on Jackson’s arm more than his legs. Even if Jackson can be a successful gunslinger at this level, he may not have the offensive line this afternoon to execute that vision. As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. They go on the road for the first time this season having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati was sluggish in the rain last week with the offense only gaining 142 total yards. Being on the field for only 24:10 minutes did not help — but Burrow was rusty after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. The Browns' defense is very good this season — so playing them in bad weather when already being out of synch was far from optimal. But now this group wants to avoid another 0-2 start like last season — although the Bengals did eventually rebound to reach the AFC Championship Game. Another week of practice should have Burrow back in the groove — he competed 67% of his passes in Week Two last year despite being on the road against the stout Dallas defense. Cincinnati has covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Burrow loves playing against the Ravens — with his perfect 3-0 record at home against Baltimore, he has averaged 316 passing Yards-Per-Game with seven touchdown passes and a Passer Rating go 110. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against AFC rivals — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against the AFC North. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (104) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should feel good about their win on the road against the Patriots last week — but they will know not to hang on their laurels of that game after getting outgained by -131 net yards. They controlled the game early by taking a 16-0 first-quarter lead that was fueled by a 70-yard interception return for a touchdown — so the game script became for them to hold on to that lead (which they did). Philadelphia should be more aggressive on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Patriots presented more of a challenge from their defense. Now they face a Minnesota defense that was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Minnesota got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after passing for 300 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. After winning all 11 of their games decided by one-scoring possession, the Regression Gods have been waiting all offseason to hand the Vikings in a loss decided by one score. This remains a team that got outscored by -0.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -27.2 net Yards-Per-Game after getting embarrassed at home in the playoffs by the New York Giants in their 31-24 loss. Minnesota enacted a “competitive rebuild” under first-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah last year — but somehow won 13 regular season games. The rebuild continues with the Adofo-Mensah dumping bigger salaries including running back Dalvin Cook. A .500 or worse record this year is likely if the Regression Gods have anything to say about it.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when favored. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (104) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) comes off a 7-10 record last season.  Buffalo (0-0) had a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an electric environment tonight at MetLife Stadium — between Monday Night Football, the anniversary of 9/11, and the debut of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the crowd should play a big role in tonight’s game. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. While I’m not sure how effective Rodgers will be at 39-years- old, the offense can only improve with his steady hand under center as compared to Zach Wilson who has 18 interceptions in his 12 career starts. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo can be reckless with the football — they were second in the NFL with 27 turnovers last season. Quarterback Josh Allen threw 14 interceptions and fumbled the ball six times last year — so perhaps we will be on the side of a defensive touchdown in this game after being a defensive touchdown/special teams touchdown magnet in our plays since the Brian Branch’s interception return for a touchdown for the Detroit Lions off the hands of Kadarious Toney (one of his four drops) on Thursday night? Dare to dream! Allen still lacks a reliable second option in the passing game after wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis only had a 51.6% catch percentage rate last season — and he had a 30.3% success rate with contested passes last year which is a bad sign when confronting the two great cornerbacks the Jets have in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. The defense took a step back last season after defensive end Von Miller got injured. The Bills' pass rush remains a question.

FINAL TAKE: New York’s defense dominated Allen and the Buffalo offense when they played at MetLife with the Jets winning by a 20-17 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.
 Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York left a bad impression the last time they were on national television in that 31-point loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. When considering that they got outscored by -0.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -18.3 net Yards-Per-Game, it’s not a very hot take to suggest they were perhaps overrated after their playoff win the week before at Minnesota. But that is not enough of a reason to simply discount their ability to progress this season. They should be a better team on both sides of the ball in the second season under head coach Brian Daboll. Daniel Jones was in desperate need of help in the passing game — and the Giants signed tight end Darren Waller in free agency and drafted a deep threat in Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. I also expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the Cowboys that have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range — and the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lions were a reliable underdog against the spread last year. But now the hype train for the Detroit Lions has not been this loud in decades — and while they should contend for the NFC North title, I do not think the available evidence matches the raised expectations for this franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991. I’m simply not impressed with their final Sunday night victory in Lambeau Field against Green Bay that thwarted the Packers' playoff aspirations despite their playoff hopes being eliminated earlier in the day. I think it is one of the easiest things to do in competitive events to find motivation to screw your rivals — especially when absolved from the pressure of failing to meet expectations. Good for the Lions that day! But the seeds of their downfall may have been exposed even in that game (more on that in my Final Take). And how impressive was that victory against the Packers, exactly? If the Aaron Rodgers Truthers who now drive the NY Jets Hype Train and the Rodgers Haters have one thing in common, it is this: that Green Bay team last season was a mess. Either Rodgers' bad season was a result of his playing with a broken hand or the product of Father Time’s impact on his skill set — but he was bad. There also is a narrative that the Lions' defense improved in the second half of the season. First of all, Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad rate through October when each of their opponents scored at least 24 points — so better numbers in the second half may have simply been the law of averages kicking in (especially when four games against Chicago and the broken Packers appear on the docket). Secondly, the most important game of the Lions' entire season was in Week 15 when they played at Carolina with control of their playoff fate on the line with a 7-7 record. In that game against the Sam Darnold-led Panthers under interim head coach Steve Wilks, Detroit lost by a 37-23 score with the “improved” Lions defense surrendering 570 total yards. Darnold looked like he was back at USC throwing against the RichRod Arizona defense while the Panthers rushed for 320 yards (not a typo). Detroit finished the season last in the NFL in yardage allowed — ranking 29th in run defense and 30th in pass defense. They did upgrade that unit in the offseason — but free-agent cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out tonight with a knee injury. The hope is that the run defense will improve because of their rookie class — but I’m not sure those rookies suddenly make this group even middle of the road. Perhaps the dynamic Detroit offense will keep them competitive tonight? Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. With tight end T.J. Hockensen traded to Minnesota and replaced by a rookie and second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, who is Goff’s (reliable) second option in the passing game? The Lions remain a team that got outgained in yardage last season. Regarding Kansas City, I am assuming that tight end Travis Kelce will not play (although even better if he does — I give it a one out of three chance that he can go despite his bruised knee). The triumph of this Chiefs team last season was predicated on Patrick Mahomes' development as a quarterback in taking what the defense gave him in his first season playing without Tyreke Hill. The mission this offseason has been to nurture the development of wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice into the passing attack to better complement Kelce. Even if Kelce does not play, head coach Andy Reid will scheme players open against the Lions defense Darnold picked apart last December — and Mahomes has more than demonstrated the discipline to simply find open receivers. And don’t be surprised if Reid’s game plan is to simply run over this porous Lions defensive line that the Panthers mauled with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. On defense, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Mahomes has won all five of his home openers in his career with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

FINAL TAKE: Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been notoriously aggressive with his play-calling in his first two seasons. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth down attempts during his tenure — and they have successfully converted seven of their eight fake punts in his tenure. They had the luxury of being aggressive in that Sunday night game against the Packers with nothing on the line for them except the joy of playing the role of the spoiler. Now expectations have arrived for this team — and Campbell — and that aggressiveness can quickly become reckless (ask LA Chargers fans with Brandon Staley). I recall an ill-advised fourth down attempt inside the Lions’ 30-yard line in his rookie season in the salad days when he was trying to avoid a winless season. A mistake like that at Arrowhead Stadium against Mahomes would be Game (and point spread cover) Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): I think Philadelphia is a good but not great team. I just cannot overcome their soft schedule and the fortunate turn of events they have enjoyed all season. The fact that their victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game represents the best win on their resume — despite San Francisco lacking a player who could throw a credible forward pass in the second half of that game. Or was their mid-October victory against Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott? Trevor Lawrence was probably the best quarterback they beat all year — but that was on the first Sunday in October before the second-year pro blossomed in the second half of the season. Or was the best QB they beat Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ team that lost at home to Detroit the final Sunday night of the regular season to fail to make the playoffs? It was not Daniel Jones who they beat in the opening round of the playoffs. Philly beat the Giants three times and they beat Minnesota — and that exhausts the list of their six wins against teams who made the playoffs. I know the Eagles have a great offensive line — so do the Lions. I know there are some sweet run blocks against the Niners' good defensive line from the NFC Championship Game — but I am not going to get too excited about those plays considering the fading morale of that 49ers team. By the way, Philly only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against San Francisco. And despite their improved run defense after acquiring Ndamukong Sun and Linvale Joseph in mid-November, they still ranked 15th against the run in the second half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. I simply think the Eagles are a year away from learning how to beat great teams. I like Jalen Hurts — but I don’t love him yet to outduel elite quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. I don’t think head coach Nick Sirianni is ready to outwit Hall of Fame coaches on the other side of the field. In some ways, getting gifted the fortunate luck of Brock Purdy’s elbow injury early in that game may have given this team a false sense of confidence. True confidence would come from beating an outstanding team in the fourth quarter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they scored 69 points in their two playoff games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. This is Philly’s first road game since December 24th. The Eagles have played four straight Unders in a row while outgaining their two playoff opponents by at least +105 net yards. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 or more yards. Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for this game — and his teams have covered the point spread in 20 of their 33 games in his career when he has two more weeks to prepare. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of three wide receivers that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. This is a battle-tested team that won their two playoff games by ten combined points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games at home by seven points or less. Mahomes has passed the test he faced this season if he could still maintain his productivity without Tyreek Hill. He has improved in taking what the defense gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs also have a running back in rookie Isaih Pacheco who can burn defenses that do not put enough players in the box. Since Week 10, Pacheco’s 728 rushing yards (before the AFC Championship Game) were the third most in the NFL. And the Kansas City defense is better than their season-long statistics suggest as this group continues to improve, as usual, under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs sacked Joe Burrow five times. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. So has Andy Reid — and my investment in the Chiefs tonight is ultimately my endorsement of him. The loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last year was the defining moment of Kansas City’s season — and the entire offseason was his preparation for this moment (much more than their earlier meeting on December 4th). The Chiefs have now lost three games in a row to Cincinnati — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games under Reid when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Reid’s teams in his career have also covered the point spread in 36 of their 56 opportunities for revenge. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Additionally, I think the Mahomes injury puts the onus on his teammates to step up and play championship-level football to pick him up. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to register a sack in his career in the playoffs — and while some of that is due to double teams (which frees up his partner on the line, Frank Clark), he needs to have a big game now. All this “Burrowhead Stadium” talk this week should have the Chiefs very chippy. We should not underestimate the home-field advantage Kansas City will enjoy tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. While Cincinnati has won the last three meetings between these teams in the last 13 months, only one of those games was played in KC. I love Joe Burrow — I totally get it — and I take a back seat to no one in my appreciation for this Bengals defense under Anarumo. However, I do wonder if this team is primed for a letdown after their emotional upset victory in Buffalo last week after feeling disrespected by the NFL for being snubbed from having that game played on a neutral field. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. Furthermore, the Bengals caught a break last week with the snowy conditions that slowed down the Bills' pass rush. Cincinnati still has three starting offensive linemen out today — that narrative has seemed to completely disappeared (and I get that losing Jonah Williams may be addition by subtraction). While the Mahomes injury is significant, the state of Burrow’s offensive line remains a bit factor as well. Finally, it gnaws at me that the Bengals have been outgained by -20.5 net Yards-Per-Game in their ten games on the road. And despite winning their last three games, they have been outgained by -57.3 net YPG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Chiefs since Week 17 of last season — but all three games were decided by a field goal with all three contests being nip-and-tuck. Can the Bengals win yet a fourth coin flip in a row? Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. I go back to Andy Reid: beating Cincinnati was the central question he had to answer in the offseason. I think he gets it done. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I think this Eagles team is loaded with talent — but I suspect that quarterback Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni are a year away from reaching the promised land. The 49ers probably have the best overall roster in the league — with a core group of players that played in the 2021 Super Bowl and then lost in the NFC Championship Game last season. Kyle Shanahan has been in this position many times before as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator — and I do think that gives him an edge. The big caveat for this Niners team is Brock Purdy at quarterback. As someone who handicapped every single one of his starts in college at Iowa State, I have been a Purdy skeptic. Not that I am particularly down on his talent (relative to where he was drafted), but I am just very familiar with how the wheels can fall off for him when he does get into trouble. That said, he is in an ideal situation with the talent at the skill positions — and Shanahan is the prototype head coach to take advantage of his skill set. After re-watching the Cowboys game from last week, I see a quarterback that continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. On defense, while the Eagles have many really good players, do they have transcendent superstars like Nick Bosa or Arik Armstead on their defensive line? Do they have ballers at linebacker like Fred Warner and the criminally underrated Dre Greenlaw? Haason Reddick is playing the best football in his career for Philly this season — and there is not a real weakness with their group. But the Niners have superstars — and this is a superstar moment. There is a reason why San Francisco has won 12 games in a row despite suffering their second major injury at quarterback during that stretch of games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing their last opponent to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Philadelphia has proven they are in a higher weight class than the Giants this month — but they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. After not beating a playoff team last season, they took full advantage of their soft schedule this year to seize the top seed in the NFC. But I simply cannot get over the fact that their best resume victory (to put this in March Madness college basketball terms) is either against a Dallas team using Cooper Rush at quarterback or against a Minnesota team that was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Their non-conference victory against Jacksonville in October was before Trevor Lawrence took his next step in his development. I don’t feel I am discounting Jalen Hurts who I followed extra closely this year as my fantasy quarterback for Destination Humiliation. I just don’t know if he can pass his way to victory against an elite opponent — and I remain unsure how healthy he is with his shoulder injury that usually takes no longer to fully heal.

FINAL TAKE: It will be all hands on deck for both teams in this one — and that probably means players like Deebo Samuel getting more touches on kick-off and punt returns. I expect the 49ers supporting cast to make the plays to help their rookie quarterback manage this game to victory. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against NFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in January — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the playoffs. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys play this game under terrible circumstances. First, they have 2 1/2 fewer days to recover and prepare for this contest when compared to the 49ers who played the early game last Saturday. When facing a physical 49ers team on both sides of the ball, this is a significant problem. Second, this will be Dallas’ fourth straight game on the road — and all that travel tends to finally take its toll. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a short week after appearing on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have been resilient off losses — but they remain inconsistent. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Dak Prescott embodies this inconsistency. While he comes off a fantastic effort on Monday, he still has thrown 15 interceptions this season with 3.8 % of his pass attempts getting picked off. Dallas has also been a much better team at home where they have an 8-1 record this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 5-4 away from home while scoring -2.4 fewer PPG and only owning a +2 net turnover margin. Dallas has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Cowboys' splits have been even more pronounced when they are playing on grass where they are just 2-4 with an average losing margin of -1.2 PPG and a -16.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark. On the other hand, San Francisco is 11-3 when playing on grass (including on their home field at Levi’s Stadium) with a +12.6 net PPG clip and a +72.8 net YPG mark. They hold their opponents to just 296.6 YPG when playing on grass which results in just 15.1 PPG. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when favored. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bengals gave up only 234 yards against the Ravens last week, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Cincinnati defense gave up 364 yards to Baltimore in that game — but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and now Jonah Williams out with injuries — but Joe Burrow has become quite used to playing behind a suspect offensive line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year has been overstated on closer analysis. The improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. Burrow had the Bengals in a position to win the Super Bowl last season behind a bad offensive line — and he should keep his team competitive in Buffalo this afternoon. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting 7 points or less. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 16 of their 20 games on the road an underdog with Burrow as their starting quarterback. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they held the Dolphins to only 42 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. I am concerned that this Bills team is wrapped up too tight in their pursuit to win the Super Bowl. They are making too many mistakes at this point of the season — and it starts with Josh Allen who has thrown five interceptions and lost a fumble in the last three weeks. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 1-3-1 ATS. In their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (304) minus the points versus the New York Giants (303). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th. New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Giants pulled off the upset last week against an overrated Vikings team that outscored and outgained in yardage — but this is a very difficult spot for them now with them playing on the road for a third straight week after being in Philadelphia just two weeks ago. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing a game where at least 50 or more combined points were scored. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games to close out the regular season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles beat five of the six playoff teams they played in the regular season — and New York lost to six of the nine playoff teams they faced including their win last week in Minnesota.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia did not play their best football to end the regular season — but they had the luxury of taking their foot off the accelerator by being in control to take the top seed in the NFC with just one victory in their final three games. Injuries played a role — but they are getting healthy again. This is a team looking to take the next step after losing in the playoffs last season — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the postseason. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th. Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Never in doubt(!) for those of us that had the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville trailed by a 27-0 score in the second quarter before scoring a crucial late touchdown to go into halftime trailing by 20 points. They then got plenty of help from the Chargers coaching staff that did not take advantage of burning time off the clock by running the football — allowing the Jags to methodically rally to take the lead and win this game. Great win for head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but I am worried about the emotional letdown for this team after pulling off this near-miracle comeback. I am also worried about a few other aspects for Jacksonville in this step-up in competition. For starters, only two of the six teams they have played during their current winning streak made the playoffs — the Chargers and Dallas. They benefitted from playing against backup quarterbacks in their victories against the New York Jets and two wins against Tennessee. But remember that they needed a late defensive touchdown to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Titans to clinch their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago despite playing at home in that game. They only scored seven first-half points in that game as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Lawrence’s propensity to make mistakes and commit turnovers remains a significant issue as well despite his overcoming those four first-half interceptions last week. He has accounted for 21 turnovers this year from 12 interceptions and another nine fumbles. The Jaguars upset the Chargers despite a -5 net turnover margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while Lawrence passed for 288 yards last week, Jacksonville is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 250 or more yards in the air in their last game. Now Lawrence goes on the road where he has led the Jags to victory in just four of his 17 career road starts. The Jaguars were 4-6 on the road this season — and they were outscored by -24.9 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games as an underdog this season. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher including four of their last five games on the road. Now here comes the Chiefs with head coach Andy Reid’s teams covering the point spread in 20 of his 33 games when coaching with two more weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. Patrick Mahomes faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in pass defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home at Arrowhead Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City beat Jacksonville at home earlier this season by a 27-17 score on November 13th — but after racing out to a 20-0 lead before letting up and letting the Jags back in that game, they are not likely to take this team lightly. The Jaguars are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Kansas City. The Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game with the win — their decisive edge in playoff experience should lead them to a double-digit win. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. They only gained 222 yards last week against the Falcons — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. The Bucs also get starting cornerback Carlton Davis back for this game to bolster the depth of the secondary. As Brady commented early last week, this Tampa Bay team is probably the healthiest they have been all season. Dallas hopes they can flip the switch in the postseason after their flat effort last week against the Commanders. But this is a tough situational spot for them having to play away from home for a third straight week. The Cowboys are at their best when they are at home where they were 8-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 4-4 away from home while scoring -6.0 fewer PPG and only owning a +1 net turnover margin. Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys are a team that seems to be preparing themselves for more postseason disappointment. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. Whatever one thinks about this Buccaneers team, the 2021 Super Bowl champs consider themselves winners — and that gives them an edge against this Cowboys team. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.