At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (102-76) took a 3-1 series lead with their 11-7 victory on the road last night. Arizona (94-84) looks to keep their season alive and force a Game Six back in Texas on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Even without Adolis Garcia who is out the rest of the World Series, the Rangers exploded for five runs in the second inning and another five runs in the third inning to quickly take control of Game Four. Texas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored. The Rangers have not committed an error in six straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games without committing an error. Texas committed only 57 errors in the regular season which is the second-fewest in the league Eovaldi gets the ball tonight after giving up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had one bad inning where he gave up three runs with the Diamondbacks getting a couple of seeing-eye ground ball base hits before Corbin Carroll broke things open with a triple. Look for Eovaldi to bounce back with a strong effort — he has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in five starts in these playoffs. The underlying sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP from those five starts projecting an ERA of 2.72 and 2.63 moving forward. Eovaldi has plenty of big-game experience in the postseason going back to his time with the Boston Red Sox. He has a 10-1 career record in the postseason with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.10 ERA as a starter. In three starts on the road in these playoffs, he has a 2.84 ERA — and he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 road starts in the regular season. He faces this Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing nine or more runs — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Five of the runs allowed last night were unearned runs coming from a Christian Walker error in a rare fielding misstep for this team that led MLB with only 56 errors in the regular season. They counter with Gallen who gave up three earned runs in five innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander has struggled with command in the postseason — but four of his five starts have been on the road where he had a 4.43 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road in the regular season. But in his 16 starts at home in the regular season, he enjoyed a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230. While he averaged 2.42 bases-on-balls per nine innings on the road in the regular season, his command was much better at home where only walked 1.59 batters per nine innings. Arizona has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with Gallen on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. They have also played 24 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Rangers will miss Garcia’s scorching hot bat — he had a .323 batting average, a .382 on-base percentage, and a 1.108 OPS in these playoffs with eight home runs and 22 RBIs.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 10 or more runs. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:03 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Seven of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (96-76) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 9-2 loss at home to the Rangers in Game Six last night. Texas (98-75) staved off elimination to force this decisive Game Seven tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 17 of their last 26 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Astros have also won 31 of their last 45 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Furthermore, they have won 6 of their last 8 playoff games when they can close out the series despite last night’s loss. Javier gets the start after posting a 1.69 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .111 in his two previous starts this postseason. The right-hander has a remarkable 1.85 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 34 career innings in his playoff career. He has struck out 49 batters in the postseason. Javier struggled in the regular season with a 10-5 record along with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts — but he was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts. But now his velocity is back up — and he is pitching as well as he has at any time in his career. The Astros have won 19 of their last 27 home games with Javier on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have won 9 straight games with Javier pitching with the total set in the 9-9.5 range. And they have won 6 straight playoff games with Javier their starting pitcher. The last five games in this series have finished Over the Total — but Texas has lost 18 of their last 30 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. The Rangers turn to Scherzer despite his giving up five runs in four innings in his previous start in his series last Wednesday. The right-hander made his first start since September 12th when he went on the injured list with a shoulder strain. He has not built his arm strength after only one rehab appearance before that outing. If this was the regular season, this would probably be his third and final rehabilitation appearance. Even if he was back to 100%, he was less effective on the road this season. While he posted a 3.09 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in 12 regular season starts, those numbers rose to a 4.31 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Scherzer’s teams have lost 7 of their last nine games in the playoffs when he is the starting pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: It is interesting that the road team has won all six games in this series — but I think that trend ends tonight. The reigning World Series champions will find a way to win this game tonight — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss at home by six or more runs. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (97-73) has won four games in a row after their 10-0 victory at home against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Arizona (89-80) has lost two games in a row to fall behind in this series by an 0-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia is playing with tons of momentum — they have won 21 of their last 28 games in October. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after shutting out their last opponent. They have held the Diamondbacks to just three runs in this series — and they have won 21 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 32 of their last 53 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. Suarez gets the start after posting a 4-6 record along with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 22 regular season starts. The left-hander had a 5.45 ERA in his 12 starts at home — but he enjoyed a 2.75 ERA in 10 starts on the road in the regular season. Philadelphia has won 18 of their last 28 games on the road with Suarez on the mound — and they have won 10 of their last 14 road games with Suarez pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. Suarez has been dynamite in this postseason with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP in two starts — and he has a 1.16 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP in his seven career playoff appearances which includes five starts. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is hitting only .226 in their last seven games with a .299 on-base percentage during that span. Arizona ranks just 12th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks have only four base hits in each of the first two games of this series — and they have lost 25 of their last 32 games after failing to get more than five hits in two straight games. They have not scored more than four runs in four straight games — and they have lost 17 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. The Arizona bullpen gave up six runs on Tuesday  — and they have lost 6 games in a row after their bullpen allowed six or more runs in their last game. They counter with Pfaadt who had a 3-9 record with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 regular season appearances. In his ten starts at home, he was saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314. In his two postseason starts this year, he has a 3.86 ERA — but he also has a 1.43 WHIP and a .321 opponent’s batting average in those two starts. He gave up 22 homers in the regular season at a 2.06 home runs per nine innings rate which is very concerning against this Phillies team bashing home runs right now.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by eight or more runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road by ten or more runs. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Three of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (93-75) finds themselves trailing by an 0-2 deficit in the ALCS after a 5-4 loss at home to the Rangers on Monday. Texas (97-72) has won seven games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by one run — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. After losing Game One by a 2-0 score, the Astros have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. Houston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. The Astros are only hitting .173 in their last three games — but they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting above .200 in their last three contests. Javier gets the start after pitching five scoreless innings at Minnesota in his last start last Tuesday in the ALDS. The right-hander’s velocity was up in that start — but he also walked five batters in that effort. Javier was solid at home this year where he had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 regular season starts — but those numbers rose to a 5.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 18 starts on the road. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Javier on the mound as the money-line underdog. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Texas is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .274 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and a .843 OPS. The Rangers have played 44 of their last 68 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They have played 37 of their last 61 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. And while Texas has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Scherzer who is making his first start in 36 games after suffering a muscle strain in his right shoulder. Only three pitchers have taken the mound in the playoffs with a longer duration between starts in the history of MLB. Two of those circumstances took place this century — and those two starters have up four and three runs apiece while combining for a 5.63 ERA. Scherzer threw 68 pitches in his lone simulated game. If this was the regular season, the 39-year-old would probably throw two more simulated games to build up his strength and endurance. Even if he is effective tonight, he is not likely to pitch deep into the game. By the way, Scherzer’s strikeout rate is his lowest since 2013 while his walk rate is his highest since 2013. In his 12 career starts in a League Championship Series, 10 of those games finished Over the Total. His teams have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total this season when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they led MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by one run. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-64) looks to stave off elimination after falling behind 0-2 in this best-of-five series in a 4-2 loss at home to the Diamondbacks on Monday. Arizona (88-78) returns home on a four-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have won 46 of their last 64 games after losing their last contest — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss to an NL West rival. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Dodgers have lost four of their last six games, they have then won 16 of their last 23 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games after an off day. They go back on the road where they have won 22 of their last 32 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They have won 45 of their last 69 games when listed as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. They turn to Lynn tonight who has a 13-11 record along with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts. While the right-hander has been inconsistent this season with some outstanding efforts tempered by several clunkers, the deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.33 and 4.50 moving forward. He has been more effective since being traded over to the Dodgers from the Chicago White Sox — he has a 3.38 ERA in his last four starts this season while averaging six innings per appearance. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they rank 25th and 23rd in those categories since September 1st. Arizona is only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, a .317 on-base percentage, and a .703 OPS during that span. The Diamondbacks have not given up more than two runs in three straight games — but they have lost 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in three straight games. They have also lost 24 of their last 39 games after a win by two runs or less. Furthermore, while Arizona has been a money-line underdog of +145 and +175 in the first two games in this series, they have then lost 16 of their last 25 games after two straight upset wins against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 3-9 record along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 appearances in the regular season. In his start in Game One of the Wildcard round against Miami, he gave up three runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in ten starts as opposed to his 5.04 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine appearances on the road. Arizona has lost 5 of their 7 games with Pfaadt pitching against an NL West rival. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 2nd in both those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 18 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games when motivated with double revenge with two straight losses to their opponent. The Dodgers had won five games in a row against Arizona before this series began. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer in Game Three of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (94-72) has won four straight games after their 11-8 victory on the road against the Orioles on Sunday. Baltimore (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas should build off their momentum as they have won 57 of their 93 games after a victory this season including winning 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 24 of their last 33 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last game. And in their last 17 games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored, they have won 12 of those contests. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 contests. Eovaldi gets the start after putting up a 12-5 record in 25 regular season starts along with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He was more effective at home where he had a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. His teams have won 23 of their last 34 games when he is pitching at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Baltimore has lost 50 of their last 73 games after losing three or more games in a row. They have also lost 15 of their last 22 games after a game where both teams scored and allowed eight or more runs. And in their last 34 games when 17 or more combined runs were scored, the Orioles have lost 25 of those games. They have also lost 9 of their last 11 games in October. They counter with Kremer who had a 13-5 record in 32 starts in the regular season with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.34 moving forward. While he had a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.39 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 13 starts. Baltimore has lost 8 of their last 13 road games with Kremer on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers rank second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are third in the league in those categories since the beginning of September. 25* MLB Divisional Series Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen in Game Two in their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Arizona (87-78) has won three games after taking the opening game of this best-of-five series with their 11-2 victory on Saturday. Los Angeles (100-63) has lost two of their last three games to fall behind 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 37 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a fellow NL West rival priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 34 of their last 51 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers scratched out only four base hits yesterday — but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not getting more than four hits in their last game. They are only hitting .197 in their last three games — but they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not hitting higher than .200 in their last three contests. Miller gets the start tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts. The rookie sees his ERA rise to a 4.55 mark in his 10 starts at home as opposed to his 3.09 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Dodgers have also played 41 of their last 66 games Over the Total when priced as the money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Arizona has played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after an off day. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. The Diamondbacks have scored 22 combined runs in their last three games while plating at least five runs in each of those contests. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 — but in his 18 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. In his last seven starts in the regular season, the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Arizona has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with Gallen on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175 range. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the playoff series. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with  Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios in Game Two in this American League Wildcard series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (88-75) took the opening game of this best-of-three series with a 3-1 victory on Tuesday. Toronto (89-74) has lost five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota is a better team than their record suggests. They outscored their opponents in the regular season by +119 runs — a +0.7 net run differential — which typically translates into 93 wins on a 162-game schedule. They had a 19-27 record in games decided by one run which suggests where they had some bad breaks. But they have now won 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 4 straight games after not scoring more than three runs in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Twins have now won 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have won 45 of their last 68 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gray gets the ball this afternoon with his 8-8 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last seven starts this season, the right-hander has a 1.54 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP. In his four career starts in the postseason, Gray has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Minnesota has won 21 of their last 33 home games with Gray on the hill when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 14 of their last 30 games against American League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.40 or lower. Toronto has now lost 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Berrios who has a 11-12 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 4.01 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods have already made their presence felt for the veteran right-hander since he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts — and he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last nine starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 15 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.97 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in his 17 starts on the road. Berrios’ teams have lost 21 of their last 29 games when he is on the mound against a team that outscores their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. He faces a Minnesota team that ranks third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank third and second in those respective metrics since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins got a monkey off their backs yesterday by snapping their 18-game losing streak in the postseason. Now they are one win away from advancing to the American League Divisional Series — and they are playing a Blue Jays team with their own shaken psyche issues as they have now lost 5 of their last 6 games in the Wildcard round of the American League playoffs. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (90-72) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 9-1 victory at New York against the Mets on Sunday. Miami (84-77) had their three-game winning streak end in a 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The defending National League champions have plenty of postseason experience — and they have won 15 of their last 23 games in October.  They have won 4 straight openers in a new playoff series. They have also won 18 of their last 28 games after losing three of their last four contests. As the top wildcard team in the National League, they earned the right to host his best-of-three series — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The money-line price on the Phillies has dropped below my -150 price threshold to endorse them tonight — and they have won 21 of their last 32 home games when priced up to -150. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with a 13-6 record this season along with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 32 starts. In his six career starts in the postseason, the veteran right-hander has a 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 14 home games with Wheeler their starting pitcher with the Total set from 7-7.5. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 24th in both those categories since July. Miami has lost 8 of their last 12 games after getting shut out in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Marlins have lost 44 of their last 65 games after an off day. They counter with Luzardo who has a 10-9 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has pitched only three innings in the postseason in his career. He did his best work at home this year where he had a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .216 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 4.48 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in 12 starts on the road. Miami has lost 15 of their last 21 road games with Luzardo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces this Phillies lineup that ranks 5th and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they have risen to 2nd and 3rd in the league since July in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will motivated to avenge a 5-4 loss at home to the Marlins as a -160 money-line favorite on September 10th — and they have won 16 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* MLB NL East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Texas (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners. Seattle (86-73) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The stakes remain urgent for both teams — the Rangers are two games ahead of Houston for first place in the AL West while the Mariners are one game behind those Astros for the final American League wildcard spot. There are still scenarios where both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after the regular season concludes this weekend. Texas managed only three base hits last night — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they did not have more than four hits. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two games in a row. On the road, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 12-4 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.95 moving forward. He is struggling this month in his five starts with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs after a game that finished Under the Total — and the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after scoring no more than three runs in their last game. The Mariners have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while Seattle has not scored more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Over the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Woo who has a 4-5 record along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts. In his four starts this month, the rookie right-hander has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks 10th and 8th this season in weighted On-Base Created and weighted Runs Created this season — and they rank 8th and 6th in those metrics since August 1st and 5th and 4th in those categories this month. Despite scoring at least five runs in six of their last nine games, Texas is hitting only .218 in their last five games — but they have played 16 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in September — and the Mariners have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (100-56) has won three of their last four games after their 8-5 victory at Washington on Sunday. Chicago (82-74) is on a three-game winning streak after a 4-3 win at home against Colorado on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has nothing to play for this week having clinched the top seed in the National League playoffs — but they should be motivated to bring their A-Game against a Cubs team that has beaten them twice in a row. We need to be careful this week about starting lineups with it being the final week of the regular season — and Ronald Acuna and company are confirmed to be on the lineup card tonight. The Braves have won 69 of their last 111 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 23 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Elder gets the ball tonight with his 12-4 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander has allowed four earned runs in two straight starts — so he will want to right his ship tonight with his next start likely to be in the postseason. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.26 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s average of .256 in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 12 of their 16 home games this season with Elder on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that ranks 21st in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs on the road against right-handed pitchers. Cody Bellinger has carried them this summer — but he is currently mired in a 5 of 32 slump with a .156 batting average in his last nine games. Chicago currently is tied with Arizona for the second and third spots in the NL wildcard race — but the pressure remains on them being only one game ahead of Miami who is still very much in contention. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring four runs or less in their last game. They have also lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 games on the road against NL East rivals. They counter with Steele who has a 16-5 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.63 and 3.35 moving forward. Perhaps the pressure of reaching the postseason or  NL Cy Young Award possibilities have gotten into the left-hander’s head as he has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts for a 12.00 ERA along with a 1.89 WHIP. He faces a Braves team that has won 22 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Braves lead MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage — and they should be motivated to maintain their pace to break an MLB record for home runs in a single season.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta got upset in two straight games as the road favorite at Wrigley Field in the last two meetings between these teams on August 5th and 6th — but the Braves have won 10 of their last 13 opportunities for double-revenge from upset losses as a road favorite. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (97-54) snapped out of their four-game losing streak last night with a 9-3 victory at home against the Phillies. Philadelphia (82-69) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Getting Ronald Acuna back in the lineup last night jumpstarted the Atlanta attack as they had 13 base hits while scoring those nine runs — and Acuna went three-for-five with two home runs and a stolen base. Acuna is set to lead off this afternoon's game. The Braves have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six or more runs — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. The Braves have also won 29 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They finished this series at home where they have won 23 of their last 34 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Pitching has been a problem for the Braves — so getting Spencer Strider in his turn in their starting rotation helped. Now Elder gets his next start to build on his 12-4 record along with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 29 starts. In his last six starts, the right-hander has a 2.97 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only 12 walks. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in 15 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 19 home games with Elder on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a slumping Phillies lineup that is hitting only .239 in their last seven games with a .301 on-base percentage and an OPS of .738 during that span. Philadelphia plays their sixth straight game on the road — and they have lost 23 of their last 37 games after playing four or more games on the road. The Phillies bullpen gave up six runs last night — and they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. They have also lost 8 of their last 13 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. And in their last 16 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175, they have lost 10 of those contests. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts. The veteran right-hander is slumping this month with an 8.56 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .315 in his last three starts. And while he enjoys a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 13 starts, those numbers rise to a 5.58 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in his 17 starts on the road. Philly has lost 13 of their last 20 games on the road with Nola on the mound priced as a money-line underdog. The Braves lead MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they also lead MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL: TAKE: The Phillies have lost 19 of their last 31 games including five of their last eight when playing with revenge from a loss to an NL West rival on the road by six or more runs. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (96-54) looks to end a four-game losing streak after their 7-1 loss at home to the Phillies in the opening game of this series. Philadelphia (82-68) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has lost a bit of their edge as they prepare for their postseason run in a few weeks — but tonight is probably the night they decide enough is enough. They only managed four base hits last night against the Phillies Zack Wheeler — but they have then won 9 of their last 11 games after not getting more than four hits in their last contest. The Braves have won 28 of their last 37 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have lost five of their last seven contests, they have then won 10 games in a row after losing five or six of their last seven games. Atlanta has still won 25 of their last 35 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Their ace Strider gets the ball tonight with his 17-5 record along with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicates his ERA should lower with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.82 and 2.83 moving forward. He struggled in two starts while dealing with an illness — but he rebounded in his most recent start by allowing only one earned run and four hits in seven innings at Philadelphia last Wednesday. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 14 starts as opposed to his 1.14 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 11 of his 14 home starts this season. Philadelphia banged out five home runs last night — but they have lost 5 of their last 8 games after hitting four or more homers in their last game. The Phillies play their fifth straight game on the road — and they have lost 22 of their last 36 games after playing four or more games on the road. They have lost 5 straight games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher — and they have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road as an underdog priced at +150. Sanchez gets the start for Philadelphia with his 2-4 record along with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 16 starts. He makes just his fifth start of the season on the road after giving up four runs in 7 1/3 innings at home against the Braves last Wednesday. In his last seven starts since the beginning of August, Sanchez has a 4.28 ERA. The Phillies have lost 4 of their 5 games this season with Sanchez pitching against an NL East rival. The Braves crush left-handed pitching — they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against lefties with a .288 batting average, a .348 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .855. Atlanta leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitching.

FINAL: TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 74 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 50 times with 14 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 52 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. Philadelphia has only been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher 10 times this season — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 7 times with two upset wins and only one loss by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (65-81) has won two games in a row after their   1-0 win at Baltimore on Wednesday. Philadelphia (79-67) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cardinals are out of the playoff hunt but they are playing good baseball with four victories in their last six games and seven wins in their last ten games. They have won 44 of their last 67 games in September. Thompson gets the ball with a 5-5 record along with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 22 games which includes six starts. The left-hander has been quite effective since late July — in his last 37 innings, he has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 40 strikeouts. Those recent numbers come close to matching his season-long sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.61 moving forward. He has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in 20 2/3 innings — but in his 30 1/3 innings at home, he owns a 2.37 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. He faces a slumping Phillies team that is hitting only .225 in their last seven games with a .315 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .726. Philadelphia has a .324 on-base percentage this season — and the Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 games with Thompson their starting pitcher facing a National League team with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower. The Phillies have lost four of their last five games — and they have lost 19 of their last 32 games after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road after playing seven straight games at home — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing six or more games in a row. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 — but in his 16 starts on the road, he has a 5.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259. He has been rocked in his two starts this month as he owns an 11.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in those nine innings. The Phillies have lost 25 of their last 40 games in September with Nola on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: The above team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are grabbing for this situation. The Cardinals have covered +1.5 Run-Line in 38 of their last 58 games as a money-line underdog with 27 upset wins and 11 losses by one run. Philadelphia has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line favorite above -110 to -150 with 12 upset losses and five one-run losses. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Month with St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (69-77) has snapped a three-game losing streak after their 3-1 victory on the road against the Giants in the second game of this series. San Francisco (74-71) was on a four-game winning streak before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They managed only four base hits in the victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had less than five base hits. Cleveland has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing four straight games where they did not score more than four runs. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Allen gets the ball with his 7-7 record along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander remains steady in the second half of the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in 11 starts at home. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Allen their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Allen has thrived in day games as well with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in  15 starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. San Francisco ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 29th and 28th in the league in those categories since July 1st. The Giants have played 23 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They are only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Harrison who has a 1-1 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his first four starts at the MLB level. The rookie has not allowed more than three earned runs in three of his four starts — he gave up six runs in San Diego in the outlier. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.93 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Harrison has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190.  He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Against left-handed pitching, Cleveland is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .242 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677. The Guardians rank 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they remain 25th and 26th in MLB since August 1st in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-47) has lost two games in a row after their 10-6 loss at home to the Cardinals in the second game of this series last night. St. Louis (60-78) has won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has rebounded to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. They were on a six-game winning streak before dropping their last two contests — and they have won 13 of their last 14 games at home after losing their last game by four or more runs. They have also won 44 of their last 62 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They still have a 44-23 record this season — and they have won 13 of their last 17 games at home. Atlanta has also won 14 of their last 19 home games when priced as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Their ace gets the ball tonight on a personal four-game winning streak after allowing four runs in six innings on the road against the Dodgers in an 8-6 victory last Thursday — he had only given up one earned run in his last three starts combined. He sported a 5-1 record in August with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts and only 13 bases-on-balls. For the season, the right-hander has a 16-4 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 27 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.76 and 2.87 moving forward. He also has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 13 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 16 games at home with Strider on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at -200 or higher. He faces a Cardinals lineup that is hitting only .237 in their last seven games with a .304 on-base percentage. 204 batting average even after yesterday’s scoring outburst. St. Louis ranks 21st and 22nd in MLB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 games after winning their previous game — and they have lost 17 of their last 21 games after a victory by four or more runs. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Hudson who has a 5-1 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 56 innings which includes seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.08 and 4.93 moving forward. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 3.43 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 39 1/3 innings — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in 16 2/3 innings on the road. He only has three Quality Starts in his last six starts overall — and now he faces this Braves team that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 67 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 45 times with 12 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 45 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 32 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. The Cardinals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their 9 games this season when priced as a money-line dog at +145 or higher — and none of those three +1.5 Run-Line covers were from losses by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-70) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (56-76) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have scored only four combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two runs in any of those four games. The Cards have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 40 of their last 55 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games where they did not score more than two runs. And in their last 7 games at home, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Thompson gets the start tonight with his 3-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 35 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.43 and 3.08 moving forward. The left-hander has been getting excellent results since adding a slider/cutter pitch to his arsenal which is generating swinging strikes. Since he debuted the pitch on July 19th, Thompson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He has been much better at home this season where he has a 1.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 19 1/3 innings as opposed to his 6.89 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 15 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a slumping Padres offense that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .680 OPS during that span. San Diego has 36 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning their last game — including four of their last six contests. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Padres have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 36-46% of their games. They counter with Lugo who has a 5-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts consisting of six-inning efforts apiece. Furthermore, Lugo has held six of his last seven opponents to less than three earned runs — he sports a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP during those seven starts with 43 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lugo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .169 batting average, a .246 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. THE SITUATION: Seattle (74-56) has won three straight games — as well as 11 of their last 12 — after their 3-2 victory against Kansas City on Sunday. Oakland (38-93) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has been one of the best teams in baseball this month having won 19 of their last 23 games. They have overtaken Texas for first place in the AL West during this surge. This resurgence for a group that spent half the season underachieving after making the playoffs last year can be attributed mostly to the scorching-hot play of Juan Rodriguez. The sophomore put up underwhelming numbers (for him) in the first few months of the season — despite the underlying data which were pretty much in line with his spectacular rookie season. But the Regression Gods have made their presence felt recently as Rodriguez boasts a .386 batting average in the last 30 days with a .431 on-base percentage and an OPS of 1.054 over that span. In the last 30 days, he has blasted six home runs while driving in 29 runners and stealing 11 bases. Rodriguez is carrying this team — and 13 of their last 19 victories have been by more than one run. Seattle has won 15 of their last 17 games after winning their last game. They have also won 52 of their last 82 games after a victory by two runs or less. They have won 36 of their last 55 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while the Mariners have not committed an error in their last two games, they have then won 29 of their last 44 games after playing two games in a row without committing an error. Seattle stays at home where they have won 11 of their last 15 games — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. Woo gets his second start since returning from the injured list after dealing with forearm inflammation. The right-hander allowed only one run in four innings of work in Chicago against the White Sox last Tuesday. He looks ready to pitch at least five innings tonight. For the season, he has a 1-3 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 4.13 moving forward. And while he has been saddled with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a .324 opponent’s batting average in his two starts for day games, he has a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in his 10 starts at night. Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games with Woo pitching on five or six days of rest. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game against fellow AL West opponents with a .196 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .581. Oakland has lost 28 of their last 34 games against division rivals. They have lost 70 of their last 92 games after losing their previous game. They have scored only three combined runs in their last two games — and they have then lost 26 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 14 games — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games on the road when priced as a +200 or higher money-line underdog. Muller gets the ball tonight with his 1-4 record with a 7.28 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in 13 appearances including 11 starts. And while he has a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in his eight games at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 10.41 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in his five starts on the road. He faces this Mariners lineup that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .318 batting average, a .393 on-base percentage, and a .951 OPS during that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. I did take pause with this situation when considering that Seattle has only covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 34 games this season when priced above my -150 threshold (with six one-run wins and 13 upset losses). But the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 4 of their last 6 games when priced above -150 with just one-run and one upset loss in those six games. When Seattle has been priced at -200 or higher this season (as they are in this contest), they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 14 games (with three losses and three one-run wins). And they are playing the worst team in baseball who have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 7 of their last 10 games when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Month is with the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 31 of their last 49 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three or more games in a row — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, in their last 27 games on the road in August, Atlanta has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Shuster gets his tenth start of the season carrying a 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.18 and 6.19 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 6.27 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants lineup that has a .267 batting average in their last seven games with a .322 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .731 during that span which compares favorably versus their .239 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .694 for the season. San Francisco ranks eighth and sixth this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Braves scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with  Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (78-51) has four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 5-3 victory against Colorado on Thursday. New York (61-66) has lost 10 of their last 11 games after their 6-5 loss to Washington yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay hit rock bottom on July 29th when their record fell to 62-44 — only four games above .500 since their blazing 14-0 start to the season. But the Rays have since gone 15-7 with nine victories in their last 12 games. They have won 13 of their last 17 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have won their last two games by two runs or less in their last two contests, they have then won 13 of their last 21 games after winning their last two games by less than three runs. Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 61 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 12 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. Eflin gets the ball coming off six innings of one-run ball in his last start in Los Angeles against the Angels last Saturday. The right-hander has a 13-7 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 24 starts. In his four starts this month, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.44 and 3.27 moving forward. And while he allowed six runs in just three innings in his last start at home against Cleveland on August 13th, he still owns a 3.05 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 14 starts at home as opposed to his 4.37 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts on the road. Tampa Bay has won 11 of Eflin’s 14 starts at home this season — and they have won 30 of their last 40 home games with him on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .201 batting average, a .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. New York ranks just 25th and 24th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Manager Aaron Boone is a lame duck working his last five weeks with the team before finally getting fired with the hot seat now moving towards general manager Brian Cashman. The Yankees are now five games under .500 after enduring a nine-game losing streak during this recent slump — that was the first time since 1982 that the Bronx Bombers lost nine games in a row. New York has lost 10 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they only hit .166 in their last five games, they have then lost 11 of their last 33 games on the road when not hitting higher than .225 in their last five games. The Yankees have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road when price as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Cole who has a 10-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.75 moving forward. He has struggled this month with a 5.25 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .247 opponent’s batting average in four starts. New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games in August — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with Cole pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Cole faces a Rays lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .345 batting average, a .399 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .964. Tampa Bay has a .458 on-base percentage in their last five games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after posting an on-base percentage of .375 or higher in their last five contests. Tampa Bay still ranks eighth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and third in those categories this month. 25*  MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (80-44) has lost two games in a row after their 10-4 loss at home to the Mets last night. New York (59-67) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should bounce back tonight as they have won 20 of their last 24 games at home after a loss by four or more runs. They were heavy favorites priced in the -220 for that game yesterday — and they have won 16 of their last 23 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival priced at -150 or higher. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs to a divisional rival — and they have won 5 of the last 6 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game. Additionally, the Braves have won 14 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were priced at -200 or higher. And while Atlanta has lost their last two games against the Mets after beating them by a 21-3 score on August 12th, they have won 44 of their last 64 games when playing with double-revenge. They have won 10 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set at 10 or higher — and they have won 5 straight home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 33 games against fellow NL East rivals. Elder gets the start with his 9-4 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. And in his last two home starts, the right-hander has allowed only one earned run — good for a 0.64 ERA with a 0.57 WHIP in those 14 innings. He faces a Mets team that may be experiencing a dead cat bounce but who remains eight games under .500. New York has lost 14 of their last 23 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog including 9 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog priced from +175 to +250. They counter with Megill who has a 7-6 record along with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 18 starts. While the right-hander has been solid at home with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in nine starts, those numbers skyrocket to an 8.20 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in nine starts on the road. New York is winless in their 5 road games this season with Megill on the mound pitching as the underdog. In his last six starts, he has been saddled with an 8.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. Now he faces a Braves team that ranks first and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in those categories since the beginning of July.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 60 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 40 times with 11 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 38 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 27 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets covered the +1.5 Run-Line last night for the first time in their last seven games when priced as a money-line dog priced at +145 or higher — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 11 games this season under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (67-56) has won two of their last three games after their 12-3 victory on the road against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (56-68) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback. The Little League Classic is being played on a neutral field at the Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Connecticut.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia has scored 28 combined runs in their last three games with at least seven runs in each of those contests. The Phillies have won 19 of their last 22 games after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. All three of those games finished Over the Total — and Philadelphia has won 17 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. The Phillies have also won 17 of their last 22 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with his 9-5 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.54 moving forward. The right-hander has ripped off seven straight Quality Starts — posting a 2.76 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in those 45 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and just seven walks in those seven starts. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 13 games with Wheeler on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He has a 3.24 ERA in his 13 starts on the road as opposed to his 4.07 ERA in 11 starts at home — and the Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Wheeler on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Nationals team that ranks 24th and 25th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Washington has lost 19 of their last 25 games after losing their previous game by eight or more runs — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss at home by eight or more runs. The Nationals have still won six of their last eight games — but they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while they have allowed seven or more runs in three straight games, they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after allowing seven or more runs. They counter with Williams who has a 5-7 record with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.85 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 — but those numbers rise to a 5.52 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in 13 starts on the road. While Williams is pitching for the technical home team tonight — I conclude that his better success at home relates to sleeping in his own bed, his familiarity with that mound, and performing in front of his home fans rather than pitching at the beginning of an inning. Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games batting last with Williams their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. He faces this hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .265 batting average, a .343 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .847 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Philadelphia has not been reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line when priced as a money-line favorite above -150 — until recently. Since August 5th, the Phillies have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in five of their last seven situations when priced above my -150 threshold — and their two failures were straight-up losses (rather than one-run victories). Lastly, the five previous Little League Classic contests were all decided by three or more runs. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (78-42) has won three games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 2-0 victory against the New York Yankees on Wednesday. San Francisco (64-57) has lost six of their last eight games after their 6-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta is a juggernaut right now — and all six of their victories in their last seven games have been by more than one run. They only managed three hits in their win against the Yankees on Wednesday -- but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games after not scratching out more than four hits in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have won 53 of their last 77 games after winning their last contest — including winning nine of their last 13 games after a win during this current hot streak. They have also won 13 of their last 18 games after a day off. They stay at home where they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games at home. The Braves have also won 27 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite (more on that in the Final Take regarding their success in covering the -1.5 Run-Line). While Atlanta’s Achilles’ heel is their starting rotation that has been hit hard by the injury bug, their ace goes tonight. Strider has a 13-4 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.77 and 2.87 moving forward. He has been more effective at home at Truist Park where he has a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.24 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. The Braves have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Strider on the hill with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also won 12 of their last 13 games this season with Strider pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. And in their last 12 games with Strider looking to extend a winning streak, Atlanta has won 11 of these contests. He faces a cold Giants’ lineup that is scoring 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .216 batting average, a .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .602. San Francisco ranks 26th and 27th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 30 of their last 48 games after scoring less than two runs in their last game including seven of their last eight games after scoring one run or less. San Francisco goes back on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The Giants have also lost 62 of their last 87 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +200 or higher — and they have lost four of these last five situations. They counter with Cobb who has a 6-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander is struggling as of late after giving up six home runs in his three starts this month. He has a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .328 during that span. He has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.25 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts — but in his 12 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .304 opponent’s batting average. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road with Cobb on the hill. He faces this Braves Murderer’s Row that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .910 during that span. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 66 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 39 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 35 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 26 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Giants have been priced as a money-line underdog only nine times this season — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line five times (with four upset wins and a single one-run loss). While San Francisco’s numbers are not evidence to support this play, I mention it because their four multiple run loss in those nine games (in a small sample size) is not enough of a red flag to dismiss the overwhelming evidence supporting the Braves in this situation. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-42) has won four of their last five games — as well as six of their last eight contests — after their 11-3 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of this series last night. New York (60-59) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has lost 7 games in a row after allowing ten or more runs — and they have lost 6 straight games after a loss by eight or more runs. The Yankees have also lost 7 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent scored ten or more runs. New York has also lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games. Severino continues to go to the mound for this team given the recent injuries to Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes — but he has been a disaster. The right-hander holds a 2-7 record with an 8.06 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 14 appearances this season. He has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.89 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .373 in his eight games (seven starts) on the road. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 9 games with Severino starting on the road as an underdog. He faces a red-hot Braves lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .335 batting average, a .446 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .966. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories. Atlanta has won 51 of their last 75 games after winning their last game — and they have won 31 of their last 44 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves scored ten or more runs now 16 times this season — and they have won 12 of their 15 prior games after scoring ten or more runs this season. They have also won 19 of their last 25 home games when priced as the favorite in the -175 to -250 price range. They counter with Elder who has an 8-4 record with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he enjoys a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games at home with Elder on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers with a .229 batting average, a .229 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .695. New York ranks 24th and 22nd in MLB this seasoning weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs-Created on the road against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 64 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 33 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 24 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Yankees have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 8 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher with just one of those three covers being via a one-run loss. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Atlanta (74-41) has won straight games — and four of their last five — after taking the opening game of their doubleheader with the Mets this afternoon by a 21-3 score. New York (52-63) has lost two in a row — and nine of their last ten — with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Braves crushed the Mets’ bullpen this afternoon to the tune of 16 runs in the 4 1/3 innings that New York used relievers — and some of those guys may need to be called on tonight. Atlanta has now won 24 of their last 30 games against fellow NL East rivals. They have won 19 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 28 of their last 42 games on the road when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 34 games when priced as a -200 or higher favorite — and the number looks even better when taking the Run-Line that we are taking into account (I am saving that for the Final Take). Strider gets the start with his 12-4 record along with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.67 and 2.78 moving forward.  The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.16 ERA in 12 starts at home. Atlanta has won 7 of their last 8 road games with Strider on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Mets lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .303 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .657. New York ranks 26th and 20th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 22 of their last 34 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, they have lost 31 of their last 39 games as a money-line underdog — and they are winless in their last 5 games at home priced as a money-line dog in the +150 to +200 range. They counter with Quintana who has an 0-3 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his four starts this season that was delayed as he recovered from rib surgery. The sabermetrics indicate he has been fortunate with those frontline numbers given his SIERA and xFIP of 5.01 and 4.95. The left-hander had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP last year for the Pirates and Cardinals — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.02 and 3.72 which contributes to the case that he is not to be trusted. Now he faces a red-hot Braves lineup licking their shops after entering the day scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .315 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .858 during that span all before plating 21 runners in Game One. And Atlanta crushes left-handed pitching as they lead MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank second in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 62 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 35 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 31 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 22 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of the 8 occasions they have been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 (losing all eight times) — and they have lost by more than one run in 4 straight games when priced as a +145 or higher money-line dog. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Arizona (55-47) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory at home against the Cardinals last night. St. Louis (45-57) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona was trailing 1-0 going into the bottom of the eighth inning before they scored three times to take a two-run lead. Kevin Ginkel then came on in the top of the ninth to secure the victory by registering his third save of the season as he seems to have become manager Torey Lovullo’s trusted closer at this moment. The Diamondbacks have won 24 of their last 36 games after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. They have also won 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has won 31 of their last 54 games after winning their last game. They have won 23 of their last 34 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games after losing four of their last five games. They complete this series this afternoon in this getaway game at home where they have won 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Gallen gets the start boasting an 11-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a sterling 1.48 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.97 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 starts on the road. Arizona has won 20 of their last 25 games at home with Gallen on the mound. St. Louis has lost 14 of their last 22 games after blowing a save opportunity in their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Cardinals have lost 27 of their last 44 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They complete their seven-game road trip in this afternoon getaway game having lost 9 of their last 14 games after playing six or more games in a row on the road. St. Louis has lost 15 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Flaherty who has a 7-6 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.70 and 4.41 moving forward. He has a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in eight starts at home — and those numbers rise to a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in his 11 starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 17 of their last 28 games with Flaherty on the hill on the road as an underdog. Flaherty also has a rough 5.66 ERA in his nine-day starts this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks rank eighth and tenth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. THE SITUATION: San Diego (48-52) was on a two-game winning streak before their 3-1 loss at Detroit yesterday. Pittsburgh (43-56) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-5 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego had won four of their last five games before their loss to the Tigers yesterday. The Padres have held their last six opponents to four runs or less — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. Darvish gets the start tonight looking to continue his recent good form. He has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts — posting a 0.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in those 12 innings while striking out 16 batters. He has a 7-6 record with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 17 starts this season — but the deeper sabermetrics indicate he has deserved better with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.77 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eight starts as opposed to his 4.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts on the road. San Diego has won 16 of their last 23 games at home when Darvish is on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games when Darvish is on the hill after giving up one earned run or less in two straight starts. He should continue his good run tonight against this Pirates team that ranks last in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .634 in that span. The Pirates started well in April — but they have since cratered having lost 14 of their last 18 games this month. Pittsburgh has lost 27 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They continue their road trip having lost 17 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Priester who is making his second-career MLB appearance. He got his hard in his MLB debut last Monday as he allowed seven runs in 5 1/3 innings at home against Cleveland. The Pirates are very high on the 22-year-old — but he only had a 4.31 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season. He faces a hot-hitting Padres lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .759 OPS. San Diego ranks sixth and third this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. These two teams last played on June 29th when the Pirates completed a three-game sweep (all upsets wins at home) with a 5-4 win — but San Diego has won 12 of their last 14 games when looking to avenge three-straight upset losses to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego is inconsistent — but when they win, it usually is by multiple runs. In fact, in their 30 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold, all 17 of their victories have been by one run. They have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 16 games when priced above -150. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 30 games this season priced as a money-pine underdog priced at +145 or higher with just two losses by just one run — and they have lost five of their last seven games (all by more than one run) under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on the Padres by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276  in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (51-48) has won six of their last eight games after their 9-4 victory against the White Sox in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (41-58) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota struggles against good teams — they have just a 25-32 record against teams with a .500 or better record. But the Twins do feast on bad teams as they have a 27-17 record against teams with a losing record after last night’s victory. They have won 10 of their 16 games this month. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. And in their last 39 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 24 of these contests. Gray gets the start looking to get back on track after surrendering five and six earned runs in his last two starts. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games when Gray is on the mound after allowing five or more earned runs in two straight games. He has a 4-4 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts at home as compared to his 3.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in nine starts on the road. He should bounce back tonight against this White Sox team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .230 batting average, a .282 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .654. They rank 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Chicago continues to implode as they play their eighth straight game away from home. They have lost 10 of their 15 games this month — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after playing their previous six games on the road. The White Sox have lost 21 of their last 35 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 30 of their last 47 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Cease who has a 4-3 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.04 ERA in ten starts — but his ERA rises to a 4.33 ERA in his ten starts on the road. He also has a 4.52 ERA in his 11 starts under the lights at night. Cease has struggled this month with a 4.96 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a .299 opponent’s batting average in his three starts in July.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .882 during that span. After underwhelming with their bats most of the season, Minnesota ranks third in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. THE SITUATION: New York (50-47) has lost four games in a row after their 7-3 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Wednesday. Kansas City (28-70) has lost five of their last seven games after their 3-0 loss at home against Detroit yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York is struggling right now — but returning home to Yankee Stadium should help after completing a six-game road trip. The Yankees have won 13 of their last 17 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games when priced from -175 to -200. New York has won 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. The Yankees miss the injured Aaron Judge who remains out with his toe injury — they have not scored more than three runs in their last three games. But New York has won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. Schmidt gets the start as he looks to win his fourth straight start and improve on his 5-6 record along with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in 11 starts — and he has a 2.83 ERA in his last ten starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.93 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 12 games (11 starts) as opposed to his 4.85 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .273 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. He should thrive against a Royals team that ranks last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they also rank last in those categories this month. Kansas City has lost 29 of their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest — and they have lost 21 of their last 26 games after scoring one run or less in their last game. Additionally, the  Royals have lost 12 straight games on the road where they scored one run or less in a loss to an AL Central rival. They only scored two runs in their previous game against the Tigers — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. On the road, they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .225 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .631. They counter with Marsh who has lost all three of his starts since being promoted to the major leagues. The right-hander has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his 15 innings of work. He is walking too many batters by averaging 4.8 bases-on-balls per nine innings. He has also already served up five homers.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play. The Yankees may be struggling — but they are still taking care of business when priced as a big favorite. New York has won covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their 15 wins when priced higher than -150 (while getting upset five times in those situations. Kansas City has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 33 of their 49 games this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost by one run in these circumstances five times while pulling off the upset just 15 times. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. THE SITUATION: Detroit (42-52) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-10 loss on the road against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (28-68) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit has bounced back to win 11 of their last 17 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest — and they have won 24 of their last 39 games after a high-scoring game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Tigers have still won 8 of their last 12 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games overall when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. Rodriguez gets the start coming off a solid outing where he allowed two runs and three hits in five innings of work at Seattle on Friday in his second start since returning from the injured list. The lefty has a 5-5 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 13 starts — and he has been consistent when pitching on the road where he has a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts. His teams have won 23 of their 31 road games when he is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Kansas City has lost 11 of their last 12 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring 10 or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Royals have lost 8 of their last 12 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest. Kansas City took advantage of almost all their scoring opportunities last night as they only stranded three runners — but they have then lost 11 of their last 12 games after stranding three or fewer runners in their last contest. The Royals have still lost 29 of their last 42 games at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 24 of their last 36 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Yarbrough who has returned from his extended time on the shelf after getting nailed in the head by a line drive in May. The left-hander has a 2-4 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings. But while he has a respectable 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .262 opponent’s batting average in his 17 2/3 innings on the road, he has been saddled with a 7.36 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in his 14 2/3 innings at home. His teams have lost 16 of his 25 starts at home when the Total is set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit ranks 14th and 13th respectively since June 1st on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they rank 11th and 9th in those analytics since the beginning of July. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (57-36) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 6-4 loss at home to the Dodgers in the opening game of this Interleague series. Los Angeles (54-39) won for the seventh time in their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore had scored at least five runs in five straight games before only scoring the four runs last night. The Orioles have won 22 of their last 35 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 21 of their last 32 games after winning five or six of their last seven contest. In their last 43 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 31 of those games including 14 of their last 19 at home priced up to -150. They have a big pitching edge tonight with Wells on the mound. The right-hander has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts). He has been a model of consistency by allowing two runs or less in eight straight starts since late May. He boasts a 2.83 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP during that span. Wells has also been more effective at home at Camden Yards where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in nine starts as opposed to his 3.88 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in his nine appearances on the road. Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games with Wells on the mound priced in the +/- 125 money-line price range. The Dodgers are slumping this month with their bats — they rank 17th and 19th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The injuries that have ravaged the Los Angeles pitching staff require manager Dave Roberts to turn to Grove tonight despite his 1-2 record, 6.89 ERA, and a 1.55 WHIP in 47 innings. He has allowed four earned runs in five of his last seven appearances. The right-hander has been solid at home where he has a 4.83 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 31 2/3 innings including five starts in his seven appearances — but in his 15 1/3 innings on the road which includes three starts in his four games, he has an 11.15 ERA, a 2.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .427. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 21 games on the road as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 14 of their last 21 games as a dog priced up to +150. The Dodgers are only hitting .237 on the road with a .318 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .753.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles rank ninth and seventh at home against right-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since June 1st. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. THE SITUATION: New York (48-39) won the first two games of this series before their 6-3 loss at home to the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (50-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: New York had a 2-0 lead going into the sixth inning yesterday — but Nick Ramirez and Michael King gave up four runs in that inning to give Baltimore a lead that they would not relinquish. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 9 games after a blown save in their last game. They have also won 4 games in a row after losing their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after getting upset by an AL East rival in their last game. After struggling last month after losing Aaron Judge to his toe injury, the Bronx Bombers are playing better as of late. They have won five of their last seven games — and they are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game during that stretch with an OPS of .809. New York has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Yankees won 8 of their last 13 games at home as an underdog including five of their eight home games as a money-line dog this season. Severino gets the start looking to bounce back from allowing seven earned runs in four innings in St. Louis against the Cardinals on Saturday. He has a 1-3 record this season with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in eight starts. Most of the damage has taken place on the road where the right-hander has a 9.27 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .360 in five starts. But in his three starts at home, Severino has a 2.55 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. In his career at Yankee Stadium, he is very comfortable sporting a 3.41 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in 335 innings. His previous start was at home against the explosive Texas Rangers and he pitched six scoreless innings against them. New York has won 10 of their last 13 games at home with Severino their starting pitcher. Now he faces a slumping Orioles team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost six of seven games before their win last night. But they have lost 44 of their last 59 games after upsetting a division rival in their last game including seven of their 11 contests under those circumstances this season. They counter with Bradish who has a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.83 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.81 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts — but in his eight starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.46 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts. The Orioles have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They have also lost 12 of their 18 games against AL East rivals with Bradish on the hill. Baltimore has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have been upset in their last 4 games when priced as the money-line favorite. The Yankees have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their last 24 games as a money-line underdog with 14 upset wins and another 4 losses by just one run. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-37) has won two in a row — and six of their last eight contests — after their 2-1 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Boston (40-42) has lost five games in a row after their 2-0 loss to Miami on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto is playing better baseball as of late as they are finally beginning to meet their huge preseason expectations. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 55 of their last 76 games at home at the Rogers Centre against teams with a losing record. Berrios gets the start looking to build on his 8-5 record along with a 1.22 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander struggled last season with a 5.23 ERA even though the deeper sabermetrics indicated he should have been giving up more than a run fewer per start. He started slowly this season by giving up 14 runs in his first two starts — but in his 14 starts since, he boasts a 2.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 85 1/3 innings. He has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in six starts as opposed to his 4.30 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in ten starts on the road including those opening two clunkers back in April. Toronto has won 17 of their last 19 games at home with Berrios on the mound and is priced as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this Red Sox team that ranks 28th in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox managed only four hits against the Marlins yesterday — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after failing to generate more than four base hits in their last game. Boston has lost 39 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. They have only scored four combined runs in their last four games while not topping two runs in any of these games — and they have then lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They have also lost 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Paxton who has a 3-1 record with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in eight starts. But while the left-hander has done his best work at home this season with a 1.69 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in three starts at Fenway Park, those numbers rise to a 4.10 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in eight starts on the road. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 37 of their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 20 of their last 26 road games with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. Boston has also lost 20 of their last 28 games against the Blue Jays — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against them in Toronto. The Blue Jays rank eighth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, Toronto is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average and a .796 slugging percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have lost their last four games against the Red Sox after an 11-5 loss in Fenway on May 24th. Toronto has won 10 of their last 15 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 5 straight games when avenging a loss where they allowed ten or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-27) has won three games in a row — and 11 in their last 12 contests — after their 4-1 win at home against the Twins in the opening game of this series. Minnesota (40-40) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is flexing their muscles as perhaps the best team in baseball while being led by Ronald Acuna who is on his way to his first MVP season. They should continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have won 35 of their 50 games this season after winning their previous game — and they have won 38 of their last 54 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They have also won 21 of their last 29 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves have won 37 of their last 52 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games in Interleague play. Atlanta has also won 42 of their last 62 home games against teams with a winning record. Elder gets the start looking to build on his 5-1 record with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts. The 24-year-old may not have the elite stuff that leads to ERA crowns — but his sinker is nasty that is generating ground balls in 57.1% of the batted balls he is allowing into play so he should continue to be a high-end starter for the Braves. In his eight starts at night, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Atlanta has won 9 of their last 13 home games with Elder on the mound and is priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that ranks 26th in MLB on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since May 1st. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Twins are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .218 Batting Average, a .288 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have lost 10 of their last 15 games after scoring no more than one run in their last game. They have not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — but Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. They have lost 37 of their last 53 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Ryan who has an 8-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 15 starts. The 27-year-old right-hander is enjoying a breakout season and comes off a complete game shutout at home against Boston last Thursday — but Minnesota has lost 4 of their 6 games this season when Ryan is following up a start where he did not allow more than an earned run. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.69 moving forward — and he does have a 3.45 ERA in his four starts this month so the Regression Gods seem to be making their impression known. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.70 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in seven starts — but he has been more hittable on the road where those numbers rise to a 3.26 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in eighth starts. The Twins have lost 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 10 of their last 13 games against the Braves.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta may have the best lineup in MLB — and they are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .308 Batting Average, a .381 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .967. They have won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 38 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Braves lead MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 9:40 PM ET on  Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Seattle (37-39) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss in Baltimore to the Orioles yesterday. Washington (30-47) has won two straight games after their 8-3 win at San Diego on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Castillo gets the start looking to build on his 4-6 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in six starts on the road. After experiencing a drop in the velocity of his fastball at the beginning of the season, he is now averaging 97 miles per hour with his four-seamer while topping out at 99 MPH at times which is right in line with his velocity at his peak last season. In his last six starts, Castillo has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in those 35 2/3 innings. Now he gets a tasty matchup against a Nationals team that ranks 27th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this month. They have lost 43 of their last 62 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Despite their two-game winning streak, Washington has still lost 15 of their last 20 games — and they have lost 37 of their last 52 games after a win. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. They stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Williams counters for the Nationals with his 4-4 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.81 and 4.84 moving forward. In his four starts this month, he has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 which is right in line with those analytics. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .347 — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .291. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Williams on the mound with the Total set from 7-8.5. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has won 40 of their last 55 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their 13 victories this season when priced above -150. Washington has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 22 losses when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-33) has won four games in a row after their 8-7 victory at home against the Astros yesterday. Houston (41-36) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is beginning to heat up — and they tend to keep building off their momentum when they start to get rolling like this when playing at home. The Dodgers have won 51 of their last 64 games at home after winning three or more games in a row — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also won 49 of their last 70 games at home against teams with a winning record. This season, Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 19 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gonsolin gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been consistently outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .123 in his career 32 games (31 starts) in his career spanning 163 innings. The Dodgers have won 25 of those 31 career Gonsolin starts at Chavez Ravine. He should pitch well against this Astros team that has a .237 Batting Average with a .299 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks just 14th and 13th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank just 20th and 19th in those metrics since the beginning of June. The Astros have lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by just one run. They have also lost 7 of their last 11 games when attempting to avenge a loss by one run. The Astros have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against teams with a winning record. They have lost 6 in a row overall to teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play. The counter with Brown who has a 6-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP  in 14 starts. The 25-year-old right-hander started the season strong with a 2.37 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP in his five starts in April. But since the beginning of May, the rookie has struggled with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last nine starts. Brown is only inducing swinging strikes 10.7% of the time which is below the MLB average. The league seems to have caught up with his pitches after his great start.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers rank 5th and 3rd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 5th in both categories since the beginning of May. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (38-26) has lost two games in a row after their 5-1 loss to Atlanta yesterday. New York (34-40) has lost four of their last five games after a 10-8 loss at Houston on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia had won six games in a row before their last two games to the juggernaut Braves — and they have still won 13 of their last 17 games. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have been dominant at home where they have won 39 of their last 58 games at Citizens Bank Park. They have also won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Walker gets the ball looking to build on his outstanding effort at Oakland where he held the A’s to just one earned in eight innings of work last Friday. Walker’s teams have won 13 of their last 14 games when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. For the season, the right-hander has a 7-3 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.25 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in nine starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game. Additionally, the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 road games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They have also lost 20 of their last 27 games on the road. They counter with Senga who has a 6-4 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The 30-year-old fork-baller has thrived at home where he sports a 2.52 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seven starts — but he has been saddled with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts on the road. He faces a Phillies team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (34-37) has lost seven games in a row after their 8-0 loss at home to the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (34-38) has won six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh should bounce back with an inspired effort tonight after getting embarrassed last night. The Pirates have won 9 of their last 11 home games after a loss by eight or more runs — and they have won 26 of their last 40 home games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also still won 11 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a losing record. Oviedo gets the start tonight looking to build on his 3-6 record along with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in seven starts as compared to his 5.08 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts on the road. He should pitch well against a Cubs team that has lost 13 of their last 18 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 17 games after a win by eight or more runs — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win by eight or more runs against an NL Central rival. The Cubs have also lost 15 of their last 21 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Chicago has lost 19 of their last 27 games on the road despite their win yesterday — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 12 road games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, they have lost 8 of those contests. They counter with Stroman who has an 8-4 record with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander is a prime candidate for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.62 moving forward. Stroman has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 2.72 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in seven starts on the road. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs’ offense is struggling without the injured Cody Bollinger in the middle of their lineup. While they rank 20th and 21st this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers, they fall to 26th and 27th in those metrics since May — and they are just 28th and 29th in those categories on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. The Pirates are middle of the pack at 16th and 17th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching this month. While I think Pittsburgh are live dogs to pull the upset, I prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (28-26) has won three games in a row after their weekend sweep in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday. San Diego (24-29) has lost two games in a row after their 10-8 loss in New York against the Yankees on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami returns home after their ten-game road trip — and they have won 4 straight games at home. They have also won 4 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. And in their last 15 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, the Marlins have won 10 of these games. Alcantara gets the ball looking to improve on his 2-5 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in ten starts. These are disappointing numbers for the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who posted a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 32 starts last season. Some regression was expected given the new rules outlawing the shift. Alcantara is a ground ball pitcher — and the Marlins ranked fifth in MLB last season in their use of the defensive shifts. Opposing hitters had a .207 batting average against Alcantara last year when Miami had the shift on. This season, opposing hitters have a Batting Average of Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him of .287 — far above his career BABIP of .269. Even without the benefit of the shift anymore, Alcantara should see his BABIP drop, albeit perhaps not down to last year’s .269 (cutting the difference in half still helps). But the bigger issue is that Alcantara is leaving only 61.5% of runners on base — a big drop from his 73.5% career strand rate. This is a phenomenon that should improve for the 27-year-old. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.28 and 4.18 from his current peripheral numbers. He comes off a nice start at dangerous Coors Field where he allowed only two runs in six innings against Colorado last Wednesday. Alcantara is also a much better pitcher at home at Loan Depot Park where he has a 4.05 ERA along with an outstanding 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in five starts — as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in five starts on the road. Last year, Alcantara had a 1.64 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a .191 opponent's batting average in 16 home starts as compared to a 3.01 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 16 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Padres team that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .213 Batting Average, a .306 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .678. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have an imbalanced lineup with little offensive production coming from the first base and catcher positions. They have failed to score more than three runs in 24 games this season — and they have lost 21 of those contests. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 21 of their last 31 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. The Padres have now lost 12 of their last 17 contests — and manager Bob Melvin tasks Weathers to end the losing streak. The lefty comes off a six-inning outing at Washington where he allowed five runs (four earned) last Wednesday. He has a 1-3 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in seven appearances including five starts. While his ERA at the spacious Petco Park is 3.27 in 11 innings, that mark rises to a 4.34 clip in his 18 2/3 innings on the road. His 5.40 SIERA and 5.29 xFIP call for regression by about 1 1/2 runs per game. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Marlins in Miami.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is heating up with their bats after scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .313 Batting Average, a .380 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .862 during that span. The Marlins rank 10th and 9th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers (with dudes like Jorge Soler absolutely raking against lefties). Miami has won 6 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. The SITUATION: Atlanta (31-21) has lost two games in a row and four of their last six after a 2-1 loss in the third game of their series with the Phillies. Philadelphia (25-27) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should rebound with a strong effort to settle for a split in this series with their NL East rival. They have won 20 of their last 25 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 31 of their last 45 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 51 of their last 78 games at home — and they have won 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a losing record. Their ace gets the pitching assignment tonight as he looks to build off his 4-2 record along with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.52 and 2.62 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 in five starts as opposed to his 1.15 WHIP and .196 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He should thrive against a Phillies team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .241 Batting Average, a .318 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .384 during that span. Philadelphia has still lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road gassed against teams with a winning record. The Phillies counter with Covey who is getting a tryout in the starting rotation after allowing only one run in five innings of work in relief at home against Arizona last Tuesday. The 31-year-old right-hander has a 0-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his two games spanning nine innings this season. Philly claimed him off waivers after he was sent down by the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago after a fill-in relief appearance. He has not pitched at the MLB level since 2020 when he had a 7.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings. In his 32 innings in Triple-A for the Dodgers before getting picked up by the Phillies, he had an underwhelming 4.22 ERA with 28 strikeouts by 18 bases-on-balls. He will be supported by a Philadelphia bullpen that has a 5.86 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the road this season.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 42 of their last 51 games when priced at -200 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games when priced at -200 or higher with Strider their starting pitcher. While I do not endorse money-line favorites priced above my -150 threshold for featured 25*/20*/10* plays, let’s instead invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the price to back the Braves tonight in a great situation for them. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (22-29) has won two of their last three games after their 9-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series. Chicago (22-28) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests with that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. Williamson gets the ball to make his third career professional start after carrying an 0-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. After a promising first start on the road against Colorado, the left-hander gave up for earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against St. Louis on Sunday. He issued four walks in that effort which continued his problems of command that manifested in his minor league stints. In Triple-A last season, he had a 1.63 WHIP while averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings. In his 34 innings in Triple-A this season, he continued that 5.3 bases-on-balls per nine-inning rate while posting a 1.88 WHIP. He faces a Cubs team that scores 6.3 Runs-Per-Game this season against left-handed pitchers with a .303 Batting Average, a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. With the recently called-up Christopher Morel on fire and Seiya Suzuki finally heating up, Chicago has two red-hot hitters on the right side of the plate — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 10 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by four or more runs. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home at Wrigley Field — and the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the Total in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Taillon who has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.73 in seven starts. The right-hander is amidst a terrible slump having allowed 19 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings in his last four starts. He has only struck out 11 batters during that span while issuing six walks. And while Taillon has a 7.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in four road starts, those numbers are even worse at home where has been saddled with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in three starts. Taillon’s teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching in May.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 Batting Average, a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. These two teams have played 4 straight Overs against each other. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Miami Marlins (925) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (28-23) has won four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 7-3 win against Boston on Wednesday. Miami (25-26) has lost four of their last five games after their 7-6 loss in Colorado to the Rockies on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last contest — and they have won 7 straight opening games to a new series. Manager Phil Levin turns to Detmers tonight who follows up an outing where he struck out 12 batters in 5 2/3 innings at home against Minnesota last Friday. The left-hander only gave up two hits but the Twins still scored three runs. That has been the story of the 23-year-old’s season — he has an 0-3 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in eight starts but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80 from his deeper numbers. Detmers has been pretty unfortunate when it comes to battle balls given the Batting Average for Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him at .351 — well above the MLB average in the .290 range. He has also stranded only 60.9% of the runners he has left on base which is about 11% below league averages. The Regression Gods will soon arrive to offer help with more batted balls being hit at his defense — and that will lead to fewer baserunners and runners that score. Last season, Detmers had a 7-6 record with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP — and his SIERA and xFIP stood at 4.12 and 4.20 so there is an argument that he is pitching better this season, especially with his increased velocity that has carried over from spring training. In his 13 starts at home last year, Detmers had a 3.22 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .193 opponent’s batting average. He should pitch well against this Marlins team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 39 of their last 52 road games against left-handed starters. Miami is second-to-last in drawing walks which have played a large role in their scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game which is last in MLB. Their loss to the Rockies yesterday was just the fourth time in 19 games they were on the losing end of a game decided by one run. Their near .500 record coming from these narrow victories masks a bottom-five run differential in the league. The Marlins have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games in interleague play. Manager Skip Schumaker taps Luzardo to take the mound after he gave up six runs in five innings of work in his last start at San Francisco on Sunday. The left-hander has a 3-3 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.37 — and the sabermetrics suggest he has been overperforming given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.89 and 4.13. And while the 25-year-old has a 2.57 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in six starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.91 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .319 in four starts on the road. Miami has lost 14 of their last 19 road games with Luzardo on the hill — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Luzardo pitching as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Angels rake against left-handed pitching especially when playing at home at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. They rank fifth in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when at home against lefties this season. Los Angeles has also won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Miami Marlins (925) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (35-14) has won three of their last four games after their 6-4 victory in the opening game of their series with the Blue Jays last night. Toronto (25-23) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay continues to be the class of the league as they continue to play great baseball after their fantastic start to the season. The Rays have won 39 of their last 57 games after winning their previous game. They have won 40 of their last 52 games at home including 22 of their 26 games at Tropicana Field this season. They have also won 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Manager Kevin Cash turns to Bradley to make his fifth start of the season. The rookie has a 3-0 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He was sent back down to the minors after his first three starts with some injured pitchers returning to the rotation — and that was an opportunity to get accustomed to pitching on five days rest to prepare for an eventual return to the majors. The 22-year-old right-hander struggled in those starts but it looks like he was experimenting with some different pitches. He maintained his great form in his return to the majors last Thursday as he allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings on the road against the Mets. The underlying metrics look great with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.84 and 3.17 moving forward. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Toronto is getting pummeled by their AL East rivals. After losing three of four at home to the New York Yankees, they then got swept at home in a three-game series against Baltimore. Now here comes the best team in baseball in the Rays — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after getting upset in their previous game to a divisional rival. Toronto has also lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs. Additionally, they have lost 13 of their last 16 games against division opponents — and they have lost 5 straight to teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays were favored last night with Chris Bassitt facing a cadre of Tampa Bay relievers. Berrios gets the start tonight after allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last start against the New York Yankees on Thursday. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in nine starts. Berrios has been up and down this season with admittedly some great outings. But he has allowed four or more runs in three of his starts — and they were all on the road. While the 28-year-old has a 2.22 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a .220 opponent’s batting average in four home starts, those numbers rise to a 6.67 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a .296 batting average in his five starts on the road. These disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season when he had a 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 16 starts at home but a 6.36 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in 16 starts on the road. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 38 of their last 56 games in Tampa Bay against the Rays.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game this season — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Houston (116-58) took a 3-2 lead in the World Series with their 3-2 victory on the road against the Phillies on Thursday. Philadelphia (98-80) has lost three of their last four games to reach the brink of elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Game — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games with a 10-2 mark in the postseason. The Astros have won 38 of their last 52 games after winning a game by two runs or less. They have won 30 of their last 42 games after a game where they did not score more nor allow more than three runs. They have won 44 of their last 59 games after not allowing more than two runs — and they have won 30 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. They return home where they have won 43 of their last 59 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games in the playoffs. Houston has also won 15 of their last 19 home games when listed as a money-line favorite priced from -100 to -150. Furthermore, the Astros have won 49 of their last 66 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 11 of their last 14 playoff games when leading in the series including all five of those circumstances this postseason. Valdez gets the start after allowing only one earned run in his last two starts in these playoffs. He has a 2-0 record this postseason with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in three starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his excellent form with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.18 and 2.24. With 62 2/3 innings in his 12 career postseason appearances, he should be ready for this moment. Houston has won 9 of their last 10 games with Valdez as their starting pitcher following two straight starts when he did not allow more than one earned run. The Astros have also won 20 of their last 25 games with Valdez pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. The Phillies are hitting only .202 in their last seven games (including getting no-hit in Game Four) with a .208 On-Base Percentage. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and they have lost 10 of their last 16 games after playing three straight Unders. They have also lost 21 of their last 29 road games in Interleague play. Philly needed the day off after their bullpen pitched at least four innings of each of the three games played at Citizens Bank Field — but they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after a three-game stretch where their bullpen pitched at least four innings in each game. Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies despite a big drop in his velocity in his last start on Saturday in Game Two of the World Series. He got hit hard for five runs (four earned) in five innings. A velocity drop in a World Series game is a major red flag since he was pumping with adrenalin. The team fears that his loss of velocity is a result of perhaps coming back too soon from his arm injury in September. As it is, his xFIP of 3.72 in this postseason is below his standards. In his 29 regular season starts, Wheeler had a 12-7 record with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He was very tough to beat at home where he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in 16 starts. But in his 13 starts on the road, he had a 3.84 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253. Philadelphia has lost 4 of their last 6 games with Wheeler pitching in Interleague play. Houston has won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a regular season WHIP of 1.10 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have lost 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (971) and the Philadelphia Phillies (972) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-76) evened this best-of-seven series with their 8-5 victory in Game Two of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday. Philadelphia (93-77) had won three-straight games before this loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have won five of their last seven contests — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Bob Melvin turns to Musgrove tonight who had a 14-5 record in the regular season along with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in  30 starts. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.47 from his regular season numbers. And despite two great starts in the postseason, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.27 and 3.63 moving forward. In his 19 2/3 career innings in the playoffs, he has a 3.66 ERA — and his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.83 moving forward. Even including his seven shutout innings on the road against the Mets on October 9th in the NL Wildcard Series, he still has a 3.86 ERA in his last seven starts on the road. The Padres have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Musgrove on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. He allowed six earned runs in six innings in his lone start against the Phillies this season. Philadelphia pounds right-handed pitching at home. Since June 1st — and since September 1st — the Phillies rank 1st and 2nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at Citizens Bank Park against right-handed starting pitchers. They have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 12-3-2 in their last 17 home games in the postseason. They counter with Suarez who had a 10-7 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 29 regular season starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.11 and 3.82 moving forward. He demonstrated nerves in his first playoff appearance on October 11th where he walked five batters in 3 1/3 innings before being pulled. He has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.27 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 on the road. The Phillies have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Suarez as their starting pitcher. He faces a Padres team that thrives against left-handed pitching. San Diego ranks 6th and 8th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since the start of the season on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank 5th in those metrics since September 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 12-3-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (971) and the Philadelphia Phillies (972) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Houston (110-56) has won six games in a row after their 4-2 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of the ALCS. New York (102-66) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston was priced in the -155 range when I went to bed last night after writing the Reports for Thursday Night Football. The price has dropped since then with the Astros now priced under my -150 price threshold. Let’s attack. Houston has won 41 of their last 58 games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range — and they have won 41 of their last 56 games at home. They have won 44 of their last 64 games after a victory — and they have won 36 of their last 49 games after winning their last game by two runs or less. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have then won 26 of their last 33 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Valdez gets the start after posting a 17-6 record in the regular season with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 31 starts. He set a Major League record with 25 Quality Starts in the regular season — so he will, at worst, keep Houston in the game before handing the ball over to the bullpen where the Astros have a distinct edge. The left-hander led MLB in ground-ball rate which will likely stymie this Yankees team that is too reliant on home runs. In his last seven starts at home including his start against Houston in the ALDS, he has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The Astros have won 18 of their last 23 games when Valdez is pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -100 to -150 including seven of those eight games this season. He faces a cold Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .175 batting average, a .214 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .609 during that span. New York is hitting just .223 against left-handed pitchers with a .312 on-base percentage with an OPS of .703. They have lost 7 of their last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has now lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games in the ALCS. I consider the Yankees’ bullpen to be a time bomb ready to explode. Aroldis Chapman has been ineffective which cost him his closer role — and after missing a mandatory team meeting, he is in the doghouse. Manager Aaron Boone has lost Michael King, Chad Green, and now Scott Effross to season-ending injuries. Clay Holmes has been outstanding for most of the season (outside an August slump) — but he just got a cortisone shot in his shoulder before the ALDS. Boone is relying heavily on him along with Jonathan Loaisiga (who struggled in the first half) and Wandy Peralta who is now being elevated to a role he did not have in the regular season. None of these three relievers have significant late-inning experience in the postseason. Severino gets the start with his 7-3 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 19 starts. He allowed three runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings on October 15th in Game Three of the ALDS against Cleveland. In his career 38 innings in the postseason, the right-hander has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP with 18 bases-on-balls. The Astros’ bullpen has a 0.77 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in these playoffs with only two runs allowed in 23 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only six walks. They have one of the best closers in the game in Ryan Pressly — and manager Dusty Baker has two emergency blanket pitchers in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy coming from the starting rotation who can pitch multiple innings.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like these circumstances for the Yankees — going from two rainouts with Cleveland to no off day to start the ALCS on the road in Houston. I suspect that before they know what hit them, they are down 0-2 in this series to a team that has owned them. New York lost the 2015 Wildcard Game along with the playoff series in 2017 and 2019 to the Astros. They have lost 5 in a row at Minute Maid Park — and Houston has won 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Guardians (918) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (917). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (96-71) has won six of their last seven games after their come-from-behind 6-5 win against the Yankees last night. New York (100-65) trails 2-1 in this best-of-five series tonight and must win to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: As Philadelphia and San Diego have demonstrated in this round of the playoffs, full-season records mean nothing in these short series. Starting pitching, the bullpen, and momentum — these intangibles all take on heightened importance. That said, Cleveland has been as good as any team in MLB with a 28-7 record since September 5th. They have won 20 of their last 27 games after winning their last game — and they have won 20 of their last 30 games after a victory by only one run. They have also won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They stay at home for Game Four where they have won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games in the ALDS. Manager Terry Francona turns to Quantrill who has a 15-5 record this season with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in 19 starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a .282 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Cleveland has won 16 of their last 21 games with Quantrill on the hill in the second half of the season — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games at home with Quantrill their starting pitcher. Additionally, the Guardians have pulled off 9 upsets in their last 12 games with Quantrill pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a reeling Yankees team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Quantrill will also be supported by perhaps the best bullpen in baseball with several outstanding pitchers. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.75 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at home this year — and in their last seven games, their bullpen has a 0.63 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. New York has lost four of their last five games including the last two games in this series. They have lost 12 of their last 18 games after losing four of their last five games. Additionally, they have lost 17 of their last 22 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 in a row in the playoffs on the road. They counter with Cole who has a 13-8 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 3.20 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts — but in his 17 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.81 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 17 starts. Of concern for Cole has a 4.02 ERA since the All-Star Break — and he has allowed four earned runs in three of his last five starts. He faces a Guardians group that has won 6 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 20 of their last 32 games when attempting to avenge a one-run loss. These team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line I am recommending for this play. I’m fine with anyone opting to take Cleveland with the money-line — but I always invest in the insurance offered by the +1.5 Run-Line if the price is no higher than -150. While two of the Guardians’ last seven losses have been by one run, four of the last twelve Yankees’ victories have been by only one run. Additionally, in New York’s last 38 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have only covered the -1.5 Run-Line 16 times with 17 straight-up losses and 5 one-run wins where they failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Divisional Series Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Guardians (918) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (917). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (102-63) looks to force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five National League Divisional Series after their 9-1 loss on the road against the Phillies yesterday. Philadelphia (91-76) can advance to the NL Championship Series with a victory today.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by eight or more runs against an NL East rival. Atlanta has also played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game including four of these last five circumstances. And while the Braves have not hit a home run in their last two games, they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting a home run in two straight games. Additionally, the Over is 19-5-2 in their last 26 games on the road — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They have also played 19 of their last 29 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They give the ball to Morton who has a 9-6 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 31 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.05 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.72 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Morton on the mound priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. The veteran has faded in the second half of the season with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last six starts. The Braves have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when Morton is tasked to end a team losing streak. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 1st and 2nd in MLB since both July 1st and September 1st in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight Overs at home against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Phillies have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 11-3-2 in their last 16 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Syndergaard who has a 10-10 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 25 games (23 starts). The sabermetrics call for regression with Syndergaard’s SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 and 4.29 moving forward. Thor has been clobbered in his two daytime starts this year with a 7.20 ERA, a 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .364. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent where they did not score more than one run. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Philadelphia. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (112-52) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-3 loss at home to the Padres on Wednesday. San Diego (92-75) evened this best-of-five series at 1-1 with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have rebounded to win 50 of their last 70 games. They have also won 50 of their last 72 games after an off day. They now go on the road for the next two games where they have won 40 of their last 58 games — and they have won 21 of their last 26 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Gonsolin gets the start with a 16-1 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 24 starts. He has pitched only two innings since August 23rd after dealing with a right forearm strain — and he will be limited to a 75-pitch count. Manager Dave Roberts is calling his number given his great regular season along with a 2-0 record along with a 0.71 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP in two starts with 14 strikeouts and only one walk. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 12 games with Gonsolin on the mound after a loss. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games on the road with Gonsolin on the mound — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games with Gonsolin pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. The Dodgers bullpen has a 2.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP on the road this year — and Roberts will also have starting pitchers like Andrew Heaney at his disposal. Los Angeles has won 29 of their last 39 games when priced no higher than -150. The Padres have underachieved with their bats all season -- even after picking up Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. They rank 25th and 20th in MLB since September 1st in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a victory — and they have 4 of their last 5 games coming off an upset victory priced at +130 or higher against an NL West rival. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home to Petco Park where they are only scoring 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .230 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .665. The Padres have lost 21 of their last 32 home games as an underdog — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games at home in the postseason. Furthermore, they have lost 10 of their last 12 games in the NLDS — and they have lost 4 straight home games in the NLDS. They counter with Snell who has an 8-10 record along with a 1.20 WHIP in 34 starts this season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he owns a 3.56 ERA and a .227 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts as compared to his 3.06 ERA and .198 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 15 home games with Snell their starting pitcher. In his three starts against Los Angeles this season, Snell has an 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The Padres have lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog with Snell on the mound.     

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers own San Diego with 41 victories in their last 58 games against them — and they have 4 of their last games against them at Petco Park. 25* MLB NL West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (933) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (934) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: San Diego (91-75) lost the opening game of the NL Divisional Series in a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (112-51) looks to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Despite the loss yesterday, the Padres are finally starting to score runs to meet the potential of their offense after trading for Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. San Diego ranks 6th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed pitchers — but they only rank 23rd in MLB in weighted Runs Created on the road against lefties for the season. But the Regression Gods may have already paid a visit to this team -- since September with them scoring more of these runners they are getting on base. Since September 1st, the Padres rank 5th on the road against left-handed pitching in weighted on-base percentage — and they also rank 5th on the road against left-handed starting pitching in weighted Runs Created during that span. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Over the Total with the Total set no higher than 7. Additionally, San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the postseason. And while the Dodgers score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game, the Padres have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who score 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. Darvish gets the start with his 16-8 record along with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. He does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.60 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 — but those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in his 17 starts on the road. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Darvish on the mound with the Total set no higher than 7. Darvish also has a career 4.50 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in eight playoff starts. He faces a Dodgers team that struggled with their bats since September with their huge lead over their National League competition. But Los Angeles still led MLB in both weighed on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers in the regular season — and they ranked 3rd and 1st in those metrics since July 1st. The Over is 7-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games in the playoffs. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or less. They counter with Kershaw who has a 12-3 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 22 starts. The veteran southpaw has not been quite as filthy at home this season where he has a 2.39 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a .221 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts as opposed to his 2.17 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 on the road. Kershaw was effective in the 2020 postseason — but he remains a future Hall of Fame whose playoff performances have been the lone blemish on his resume. He has a career record of 12-12 in the postseason with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Kershaw pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -175 to -250.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Dodgers Stadium. With the Total set just at 7, expect at least one of these pitchers to struggle against these potent lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (933) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (934) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (111-51) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 6-1 win against Colorado to close out their regular season. San Diego (91-74) advanced to the National League Divisional Series with their 6-0 win at New York against the Mets on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also won 40 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They host the first two games of this best-of-five series at Dodger Stadium where they have won 41 of their last 52 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games in the NLDS. Furthermore, this dominant team has won 69 of their last 101 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who has a 17-7 record with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has been very tough when pitching at home where he has a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in 14 starts as compared to his 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 on the road. In his 13 starts since the All-Star Break, Urias has a 1.29 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179. The Dodgers have won 29 of their last 34 games with Urias on the mound in the second half of the season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 4 straight games in the NLDS — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road in the NLDS. They counter with Clevinger who has a 7-7 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 23 games (22 starts). The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home at the spacious Petco Park with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in nine starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.46 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 on the road. The Padres have lost 4 straight games when Clevinger is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 71 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 117 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 37 of those games — and in their 80 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 67 times. San Diego has only been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 11 times this season. While they have pulled five upsets, under those circumstances, all six of their losses have been by more than one run. Lastly, the Dodgers have owned the Padres this season with 14 victories in 19 games — and they covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of those wins. 25* MLB NL West Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: New York (102-62) forced a decisive final game in this best-of-three Wildcard Playoff series with their 7-3 victory against the Padres yesterday. San Diego (90-74) has lost two of three and five of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mets have won 44 of their last 64 games at home at Citi Field — and they have won 12 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a winning record. They turn to Bassitt tonight to keep their season alive. The right-hander has a 15-9 record this year with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 30 starts. Bassitt has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.95 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 on the road. In his 13 starts since the All-Star Break, Bassitt sports a 2.94 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. They counter with Musgrove who has a 10-7 record with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.86 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 16 starts as compared to his 3.01 ERA and .229 opponent’s batting average of .229. Since the All-Star Break, Musgrove’s numbers have declined with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.23 along with an opponent’s batting average of .254. His teams have lost 18 of their last 26 games when Musgrove is their starting pitcher priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 18 of their last 25 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 38 of their last 53 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (940) versus the San Diego Padres (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: New York (101-61) ended the season on a three-game winning streak after their 9-2 victory against Washington on Wednesday. San Diego (89-73) comes off an 8-1 loss to San Francisco on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 20 of their last 27 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They host this best-of-three series at Citi Field where they have won 43 of their last 62 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against winning teams. Additionally, they have won 20 of their last 29 games when priced as a -100 to -150 money-line favorite. The oddsmakers have installed the over/under at a rare 6 for this game, the Mets have won 33 of their last 45 games when the Total is set at 6.5 or lower. Scherzer gets the ball for manager Buck Showalter. The right-hander has an 11-5 record with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 23 starts. He has been very tough when pitching at home where he owns a 1.67 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in ten starts. The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games at home with Scherzer on the mound when priced up to -150 as the favorite. He faces a underachieving Padres’ lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. On the road against right-handed starting pitchers since September 1st, San Diego ranks a middling 12th and 14th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 10 of their last 13 playoff games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. They have also lost 38 of their last 54 road games with the Total set at 6.5 or less. They counter with Darvish who has a 16-8 record with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. And while the right-hander has a 2.60 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a .188 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a .222 opponent’s batting average on the road. San Diego has lost 13 of their last 19 road games with Darvish their starting pitcher as an underdog priced up to +150. In seven career postseason starts, he has a 2-5 record with a 5.18 ERA.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets rank 7th in MLB since September 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York has won 38 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American League Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Mets (940) versus the San Diego Padres (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (80-74) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-9 loss on the road against the Red Sox in the second game of this series. Boston (73-81) snapped their six-game losing streak with last night’s win.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have allowed at least six runs in four straight games — and they have scored at least six runs in four of their last five contests. The first two games of this series have both seen 22 combined runs after Baltimore won Game One by a 14-8 score. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in two straight games. And in their last 7 games after playing two straight games where at least 15 combined runs were scored, they have then played 6 of those games Over the Total. They have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against division opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Kremer gets the ball tonight with an 8-5 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.28 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237  when pitching at home, those numbers rise to a 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 10 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 3 of their last 4 road games Over the Total with Kremer pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games at home Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. They have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total in September. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hill who has a 7-7 record with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts. The veteran lefty seems to be wearing down as the season closes since he has allowed four or five runs in four of his last five starts. In his last five starts, he has a 5.96 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. He has been less effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in 10 starts as opposed to his 3.80 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .240 opponent’s batting average in his 14 starts on the road. Boston has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with Hill priced as a -110 or higher favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Manager Brandon Hyde is going with a right-handed dominant starting lineup tonight against Hill — and Baltimore is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .306 batting average, a .354 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .900. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (76-67) had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 4-1 loss at St. Louis on Wednesday. New York (87-56) has won four in a row after their 5-3 victory at Boston on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Yankees have steadied the ship after a listless August — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two in a row against a divisional rival. But New York’s bullpen has logged in 16 innings in their last three games with at least four innings pitched in each of those games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. The Yankees stay on the road where they have lost 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Additionally, New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against National League teams. They give the ball to Montas who has a 5-12 record with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home for the Yankees and previously with Oakland before being traded over at the trade deadline. Montas has a 3.11 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 batting average in 15 home starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in his 11 starts on the road. In his nine starts since the All-Star Break, he has a 5.28 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Montas’ teams have also lost 10 of their last 12 games when he is pitching and priced in the +/- 125 range. Milwaukee has won 13 of their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Brewers were upset in their game on the road against the Cardinals with Corbin Burnes on the hill — and they have won 18 of their last 28 games after an upset loss to an NL Central rival. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than one run in a loss to a divisional rival. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams from the American League — and they have won 6 straight home games in Interleague play. They counter with Houser who has a 6-9 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). The right-hander has a 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a .223 opponent’s batting average in his nine games at home as opposed to his 6.14 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .285 on the road. In his two starts this month, Houser has a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. The Brewers have won 9 of their last 14 games with Houser on the hill priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150.

FINAL TAKE: These are all reasons to take Milwaukee as an underdog with the money-line (which is fine) — but with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line priced at -150 in many locations, that is my preferred option to take advantage of this situation. The Yankees have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 12 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (67-61) has won five games in a row after their 10-5 victory against the Red Sox in the second game of this series yesterday. Boston (62-68) has lost three straight games and seven of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 12 of their last 18 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also won 4 games in a row after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Twins have won 5 games in a row at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryan who has a 10-6 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander got COVID in mid-May — and he struggled with his velocity when he turned to the mound three weeks later. But the 26-year-old rookie has regained his touch this month with a 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. He comes off six shutout innings in his last start against San Francisco on Friday — and Minnesota has won 6 of their last 9 games when Ryan is following up a start in which he did not allow more than two earned runs. He thrives at home at Target Field where he has a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 12 starts as opposed to his 5.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 on the road. The Twins have won 8 of their last 11 games at home with Ryan on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston ranks 27th in MLB since July 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game — and they have also lost 24 of their last 36 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Boston has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wacha who has a 9-1 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 16 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the right-hander is excelling on borrowed time with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.09 moving forward. He has been most effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 — but in his eight starts on the road, he has a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins looked to be fading fast in the AL Central race at this time last week — but after a weekend sweep against San Francisco and now taking the first game of this series with Byron Buxton and Tyler Mahle set to return from the injured list soon — there is new enthusiasm from this team. Boston has gone just 19-35 since the beginning of July — and now President Sam Kennedy is denying speculation that he is prepared to clean house in the offseason. Minnesota is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: New York (80-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 3-1 victory against the Rockies last night. Colorado (54-72) has lost two in a row — and eight of their last 11 — after their loss to Jacob DeGrom last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 23 of their last 31 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only scored five runs in their last two games, they have then won 14 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Mets have won 37 of their last 51 home games when priced at -110 or higher. They have also won 28 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They give the ball to Bassitt who has an 11-7 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has thrived at home where he enjoys a 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 on the road. New York has won 18 of their last 26 home games when Bassitt is on the bump when favored at -110 or higher. They have also won 11 in a row when Bassitt is favored at -200 or higher. He faces a Rockies team that scores only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, a .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .634. Colorado has lost 65 of their last 89 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 20 of their last 25 road games as an underdog priced at +250 or higher. They counter with Kuhl who has a 6-7 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander returns to the mound after being on the injured list with a right flexor strain. He was struggling before hitting the DL while also working on some adjustments to his delivery. In his last six starts since the start of July, Kohl has been saddled with a 10.17 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP. And while he has a 4.17 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his nine starts at home, he has been roughed up with a 6.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and a .288 opponent’s batting average in his 11 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 26 of their last 34 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Mets win, it is usually by more than one run. New York has played 38 games this season priced above my -150 price threshold — and while they have been upset 10 times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 21 of their 28 victories under these circumstances. Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 52 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset in 16 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 27 of their 36 losses in those situations. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-69) has won two games in a row after their 5-3 victory against the A’s in the second game of their series. Oakland (45-79) has lost four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before Tuesday night’s game, the Marlins had not scored more than four runs in 23 straight games — and they did not score more than three runs in 21 of those games. The Under is 21-8-2 in Miami’s last 31 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Marlins have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.15 moving forward. He comes off an impressive start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed only one run in 6 1/3 innings against the commanding MLB leader in runs scored. Miami has played 4 straight Unders this season when Luzardo is on the mound following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. In his last four starts this month since coming back from a forearm injury that kept him on the shelf since May, Luzardo has a 2.76 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .128 in six starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Luzardo also sports a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in four starts. He faces an A’s team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. At home, the A’s are scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game while posting a .205 batting average, .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .585. The Under is 28-13-1 in their last 42 games at home. They counter with Irvin who has a 6-11 record this season with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 on the road. Oakland has played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total with Irvin pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He pitches against a listless Marlins lineup that is hitting just .188 in their last seven games with a .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .607 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: Since June 1st, Miami ranks 28th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland ranks 29th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st — and they rank 27th in weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. THE SITUATION: Chicago (52-67) has won five straight games after taking the second game of this NL Central series by a 6-5 score yesterday. Milwaukee (63-56) has lost five of their last seven games (PLEASE NOTE: I accidentally entered this Report for the Cubs as a money-line play (which is fine), but I do prefer and endorse the Cubs plus the +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 price threshold -- FYI).

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs are playing feisty baseball this month despite being out of the playoff picture. They have won 14 of their last 17 games after a victory by one run — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than five runs in their last contest. The first two games in this series have finished Over the Total — and Chicago has won 15 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also won 24 of their last 35 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cubbies have won 9 of their last 11 games at home at Wrigley Field — and they have beaten 7 of their last 10 opponents with winning records. Steele gets the ball with a 4-7 record along with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts. He is incorporating a change up into his arsenal — and in his late eight starts, he sports a 1.67 ERA with 50 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 43 innings. He does his best work at home where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260. He faces a slumping Brewers lineup that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .165 batting average, .252 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .577 during that span. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring five runs in their last contest — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Brewers have now lost four games in a row to the Cubs with the last three losses by just one run — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging three or more straight losses to their opponent by two runs or less. Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 games on the road. Furthermore, the Brewers have lost 6 straight games on the road against teams with a losing record. They counter with Woodruff who has a 9-3 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in eight starts — but in his ten starts on the road, he has a 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Woodruff on the hill with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The Cubs are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends above do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Six of the last 12 losses for the Cubs have been by just one run. Three of the Brewers last 4 victories — along with 7 of their last 14 wins — have been by just one run. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: New York (71-41) has lost two straight games — and seven of their last eight — after their 4-3 loss in Seattle to the Mariners on Wednesday. Boston (55-58) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 4-3 win against Baltimore last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The slumping Yankees had scored nine runs in two straight games before getting shutout by a 1-0 score to the Mariners on Tuesday and then losing by one-run again on Wednesday. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by one run. They continue their road trip where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when the Total is in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 16 games against divisional rivals, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. Manager Aaron Boone gives the ball to German who has a 1-2 record with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season. After missing all of 2020 because of domestic abuse charges, he returned last season to generate a 4-5 record with a 4.58 ERA in 98 1/3 innings. His season was delayed this year due to a shoulder injury. Giving up gopher balls has always been an issue for the right-hander — and he has already served up four home runs in his 17 innings this year. German looked good in his rehab starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA in his three starts on the road since his return to the mound. He has only pitched 106 innings from 2019 which was his best full season despite a 4.03 ERA. He has a career 4.56 ERA while allowing 1.68 home runs per nine innings. In his 25 career innings at Fenway Park, he has a 4.68 ERA. The Yankees have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with German their starting pitcher at night. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total playing at home in Fenway Park. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against AL East rivals. They counter with Eovaldi who has a 5-3 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander missed about five weeks prior to the All-Star Break earlier this summer with back inflammation — and since his return, his velocity is down. While he did pitch surprisingly well two starts ago in Houston against the Astros recently, he still has a 7.29 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his four starts the second half of the season. He has pitched better on the road where he owns a 2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts — but in his seven starts at home, he has been saddled with a 6.81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponents batting average .320 in seven starts at home. The Red Sox have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Eovaldi pitching with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Bronx Bombers have scored 14 runs in each of their last two games against Boston. These two teams have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-54) has won two of their last three games after their 3-2 victory against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (45-66) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: While Chicago has been a disappointment so far this season, they are still very much alive in the American League playoff race. They have been riddled with injuries all season — but manager Tony LaRussa has finally been able to pencil in his expected opening day lineup this month. Not surprisingly, the White Sox are playing better baseball — they have won seven of their last eleven games and have not lost a series since their July 4th series with Minnesota. Chicago’s struggles have mostly been at home where they have a 25-29 record this season. But the White Sox have won 13 of their last 21 games on the road with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have won 13 of their last 17 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 7 games against AL Central rivals. Cueto gets the start with his 4-5 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts (15 appearances). The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home. His teams have won 7 of their last 10 road games when he is on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should have success against this Royals team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. Since the beginning of June when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers, Kansas City ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage and 22nd in weighted Runs Created. The Royals have lost 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. After trading away Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, and Carlos Santana last month, this team has fully embraced rebuilding by playing their prospects for the rest of the season. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Bubic who has a 2-6 record along with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 17 games (18 appearances). The left-hander struggles with control — he is averaging 5.03 walks per nine innings when pitching at home. He has been less effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.86 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Bubic has been pitching better as of late by not allowing more than three earned runs in seven starts — but the Royals have lost 5 of those 7 games still.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox rake left-handed pitching — since June 1st when playing on the road against left-handed pitchers, Chicago ranks 3rd in weighted on-base percentage and 2nd in weighted Runs Created. They have won 14 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (73-33) won their seventh straight game — and 10th in their last 11 contests — with their 8-3 victory against the Padres in the second game of this series. San Diego (61-48) has lost three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is rolling now — and they have won 40 of their last 53 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 26 of their last 35 games after a win by four or more runs. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games after winning two in a row against a divisional rival — and they have won 47 of their last 58 games at home after winning three or more games in a row. LA is crushing the baseball right now — they have scored 16 runs in the first two games in this series while plating 48 runners in their last seven contests. They have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game. They have won 56 of their last 73 games at home at Dodger Stadium — and they have won 40 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 9 of their last 11 home games when priced as a money-line favorite no higher than -150 — and they have won 18 of their last 19 home games against NL West rivals. Anderson gets the start with his 12-1 record along with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 18 starts (20 appearances). The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in nine games (eight starts) as opposed to his 3.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Dodgers have won 7 of his 8 starts at home this season — and Anderson’s teams have won 12 of their last 14 games when he is on the mound looking to extend a winning streak. He faces a Padres team that does not hit left-handed pitching very well — especially with Fernando Tatis yet to play this season. San Diego scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. Since the beginning of June, the Padres rank 16th on the road in weighted on-base percentage and 17th on the road in weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 straight road games against left-handed starters. They made big moves at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader — but they still can’t beat the Dodgers. San Diego has now lost 7 of their 9 games against their NL West rivals — and they have lost 42 of their last 59 games against them in Dodger Stadium. The Padres have lost 5 straight games after dropping the first two games in a new series. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Darvish who has a 10-4 record along with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. But while the right-hander thrives at home with a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in ten starts, those numbers rise to a 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Darvish pitching with the Total set from 8.5-10 — and they have lost 13 of their 20 games in the second half of the season with him making the start.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .294 batting average, .337 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .827 in those contests. They have won 37 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 39 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss to the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (50-51) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs had won six straight games before dropping two of three. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after losing their last game. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Sampson takes the mound for the Cubs with his 0-1 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 10 2/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .254 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sampson on the hill priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .220 batting average, .270 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. San Francisco ranks 27th in MLB since June 1st in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 24th in weighted Runs Scored at home against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Rodon who has an 8-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics validate his outstanding season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.12 and 3.14 moving forward. The lefty has a 2.05 ERA in his eight starts at home as opposed to his 3.88 ERA on the road. His teams have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when he is the starting pitcher priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Cubs team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .666 during that span. Since June 1st against left-handed starting pitchers, Chicago ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage on the road and 23rd in weighted Runs Created. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Oracle Park. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (53-47) has won three straight games after their 4-2 victory against the Pirates in the second game of this four-game series. Pittsburgh (40-60) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Phillies have won 21 of their last 31 games after winning their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after winning at least two games in a row. The Philly bullpen did not give up an earned run last night — and Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 42 games after their bullpen did not give up an earned run in their last contest. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, after winning the opening game of this series by an 8-7 score, they have won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their two previous games by no more than two runs. After a slow start to the season that got manager Joe Girardi fired, the Phillies have a 31-18 record since the beginning of June. They have won 19 of their last 29 games on the road — and they have won 5 straight games on the road. They give the ball to Suarez who has a 7-5 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 17 starts. After a slow start to the season, the left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 10 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.54 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 when pitching at home. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games on the road with Suarez on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .187 batting average, .249 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .549 during that span. They rank 25th in MLB at home against left-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They have lost 40 of their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. They counter with Keller who has a 3-7 record along with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games which include 17 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where has a 4.66 ERA and a .277 opponent’s batting average in nine games and eight starts at home as compared to his more modest 4.44 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Keller on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have a .277 batting average in their last seven games — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has also won 6 of their last 7 games against the Pirates. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (53-46) has lost five of their last six games after their 3-0 shutout loss at Baltimore yesterday. Cleveland (50-48) has lost four of their last six contests after their 4-2 loss at Boston on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after suffering a shutout loss to a fellow American League East rival. And while the Rays only scratched out four hits against the Orioles, they have then won 27 of their last 39 games after not generating more than four base hits in their last game. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 58 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home to Tropicana Field for the first time since July 17th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home after being on the road for at least a week. The Rays have won 6 straight games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 15 of their last 19 home games after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 60 games at home priced as a money-line favorite up to -150, they have won 41 of these contests. They have also beaten 12 of their last 13 opponents with winning records. Injuries have hit this team hard with over 1000 combined games lost to injury already this season. While they miss their young phenom at shortstop in Wander Franco who is out with a hand injury, most of their injuries have been with their pitching staff. But Tampa Bay continues to be resilient and rely on their top-notch development system. One of the players who they have found off the scrap heap to develop into another positive contributor is Springs who takes the ball for manager Kevin Cash tonight. The coaching staff has helped rely on his change up more this season to great success. The left-hander has a 3-2 record with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 68 1/3 innings between stints in the bullpen and as a starter. The deeper sabermetrics do not expect him to continue to suppress runs to that degree — but with his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 3.26 moving forward, the numbers underneath the hood validate his outstanding pitching. He has been outstanding at home where he has a 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 30 2/3 innings at home in ten appearances which includes five starts. After a stint on the injured list from lower leg tightness, he allowed only one earned run in 4 2/3 innings in his return start on Sunday at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games with Springs their starting pitcher when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games when Springs is their starting pitcher looking to attend a team losing streak. He faces a Guardians lineup that has just a .247 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .672. Most of their best hitters hit on the left-side of the plate. Since June 1st, Cleveland ranks 29th in MLB in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Guardians have also lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games with the total set in the 7-7.5 range. They counter with Bieber who has a 4-6 record with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The velocity on his four-seam fastball is down 1.7 miles-per-hour this season — and after striking out at an elite-level 33.1% of opposing hitters last season, he is only striking out 24.3% of hitters this year. In his three starts this month, Bieber has a 5.23 ERA. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in seven starts — but his WHIP and an opponent’s batting average rise to 1.22 and .253 marks in his 11 starts on the road. Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 9 games with Bieber pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. He faces a Rays team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has lost 19 of their last 26 games against the Rays — and they have lost 7 in a row against them in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-45) has won three games in a row after their 4-2 win against Texas yesterday. Houston (64-35) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at Oakland on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after upsetting a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row against an AL West opponent. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Mariners have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Gilbert gets the start with his 10-4 record along with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.19 ERA and a .248 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gilbert starting on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Houston has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Astros have scored only five runs in their last two games, they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Urquidy who has a 9-4 record along with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as opposed to his 4.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 on the road. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Urquidy on the mound after losing their last game. He faces a Mariners team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* MLB Thursday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Houston (64-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 7-5 loss to the A’s last night. Oakland (36-63) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 40-19-6 in the Astros’ last 65 games after a loss — and the Under is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 33-16-4 in Houston’s last 53 games on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. Garcia gets the ball with his 8-5 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm his good season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.53 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in .193 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Garcia their starting pitcher on the road priced at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Unders against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the A’s have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. At home, Oakland is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .202 batting average, .264 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .580. Montas takes the mound for the A’s to further his 3-9 record despite a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 batting average in 11 starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when pitching on the road. Oakland has played 10 of their 11 games Under the Total with Montas pitching at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Montas their starting pitcher with the Total set at 7 or less. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AL West — and the Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Oakland. Lastly, Houston has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (64-30) has won eight-straight games after their 7-4 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Washington (32-65) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory at Arizona on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has a 17-2 record this month — and their last seven victories have all been by more than one run. The Dodgers have won 45 of their last 62 games after winning their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least two in a row against division opponents. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 68 games at home — and they have won 50 of their last 61 games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. And while the last time the Dodgers played the Nationals, they lost by a 1-0 score in Washington on May 25th — but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. They give the ball to Gonsolin who has an 11-0 record with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .130 in eight starts as opposed to his 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204. The Dodgers have won 11 straight games at home when Gonsolin is their starting pitcher priced at -150 or higher as the money-line favorite. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .600 during that span. Washington has lost 37 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have lost 17 of their last 20 games even after yesterday’s victory. Washington has lost 36 of their last 51 games after winning their last game. The Nationals have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 7-8.5. They have also lost 46 of their last 60 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Espino who has an 0-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 58 innings this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 4.32 moving forward. The Nationals have lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a money-line underdog with Espino on the mound. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .869 during that span. Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 69 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 23 of those games — and in their 46 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 41 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 money-line underdog 47 times this season. They pulled off the upset 15 times — and in their 32 loss, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 26 times. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Chicago (43-45) has won two straight games and four of their last five after their 2-1 victory at Cleveland yesterday. Minnesota (49-41) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win against Milwaukee on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago their road trip with this four-game series in Minnesota having won 12 of their last 17 games after winning their two previous games on the road against divisional opponents. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The White Sox have been a disappointment when considering that they entered the season with aspirations of making a deep run in the playoffs. Injuries have not helped their cause. But the most surprising aspect to this team has been their play at home where they are just 19-25 at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. Chicago has been a solid team on the road with a 24-20 record this season which is a pace that teams who typically win 90 or more games enjoy (which is where sports books projected future season win total). The White Sox have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Furthermore, Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They send out Cueto who has a 3-4 record with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). The right-hander has been hot this month with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in two starts. He has been more effective on the road where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts as opposed to his 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in six games (five starts). His teams have pulled off 6 straight upsets on the road when he is starting as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 17 of their last 22 games after winning their last contest. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing two runs or less in their last game. They turn to Gray who has a 4-2 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 12 starts this season. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.81 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known this month since Gray has been saddled with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to a 0.86 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in five starts. He faces a White Six team that has won 20 of their last 29 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have been the money-line underdog 35 times — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 19 of those games with 13 upset wins and 6 one-runs losses where they covered the +1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been the money-line favorite 51 times this season — they have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 32 of those games with 23 upset losses and another 9 one-run wins where they did not cover the -1.5 Run-Line. With the investment price of the variable +1.5 Run-Line not higher than my -150 price threshold, let’s invest and attack. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. THE SITUATION: New York (61-25) has lost two games in a row after their 11-6 loss at Boston on Sunday night. Cincinnati (32-54) has won four games in a row with their 10-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has bounced back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Yankees have won 4 straight games after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Furthermore, New York has won 26 of their last 34 games after an off day — including ten of those eleven circumstances this season. Now after being on the road for their last ten games, they return home to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time since June 29th. The Bronx Bombers have won 34 of their 43 games at home this season — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games at home after being on the road for at least seven days. The Yankees have also won 17 of their last 18 games at home when priced as a favorite at -200 or higher. They have won 13 of their last 16 games in Interleague play — and they are blasting National League pitching this season by scoring 9.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .328 batting average, .405 on-base percentage, and an OPS of 1.047 in their five interleague games this year. Cole gets the call on the mound tonight with the motivation to redeem himself from allowing five runs in six innings of work in his last start at Boston on Thursday. The ace right-hander has an 8-2 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish with month his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.98 and 2.95 moving forward. Cole comes back home to Yankee Stadium where he enjoys a 2.31 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in his nine starts on the road. It is not common for Cole to be on the hill in games when the oddsmakers install the Total at 8.5 or higher — and his teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is the starter with the Total set from 8.5-10. Cincinnati has won five of their last seven games — but they have then lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven. The Reds go back on the road where they are only scoring 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .226 batting average, .278 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616. They have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games on the road when priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. They have also lost 40 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ashcraft who has a 4-2 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nine starts. The rookie right-hander has been at his best at home where he sports a 2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts — but in his four starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 6.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .291 batting average, .365 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .884 in that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. New York has played 54 games this season when they were priced as a money-line favorite higher than my -150 price threshold — and they have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 27 of those games with 15 upset losses and 12 wins by just one run. The Yankees went through a stretch where I did not consider them reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line — but in their last 10 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 6 times with only one victory by just one run. Cincinnati has played 40 games priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost 23 of these games by more than one run with only five losses by one run. In their last 13 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher, they have lost and not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of those games — and none of their losses have been by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on the Yankees by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-35) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-6 loss to the Guardians yesterday in 10 innings yesterday. Cleveland (38-34) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning yesterday — but their bullpen blew the save by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to take the loss. The Twins have won 16 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 11 games after blowing a save in their last game. Minnesota has still won 6 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who has a 2-3 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in seven starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts at home. He has been outstanding this month with a 2-1 record along with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in five starts. While Archer does not pitch deep into games and usually does not pitch around the batting order more than twice, he will be supported by a Twins bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in the last seven days. His teams have won 6 of their last 9 games with him pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games when he is the starting pitcher for a day game. He faces a Cleveland team that ranks 18th in MLB in the weighted Runs Created metric when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage when at home against right-handed pitching. In their last seven games, the Guardians are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .227 Batting Average, .272 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .586. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Guardians had lost five straight games before winning two of their last three games in the middle three games of this five-game series. But Cleveland has still lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Bieber who has a 3-4 record along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 2.51 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in nine starts — but in his five starts at home, he has a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Bieber had a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .211 opponent’s batting average in nine starts but a 3.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Twins lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. Minnesota has still beaten the Guardians in 6 of their last 8 meetings.

FINAL TAKE: All of the Twins last five losses have been only one run — and four straight Cleveland victories as well as five of their last six games have been by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month is with the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five of their last seven games — and 20 of their last 26 — after their 5-3 victory against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (44-26) had been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This red-hot Atlanta team has won 15 of their last 18 games after a victory — and they have won 12 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 11 of their last 13 games at home. They give the ball to Strider who will have something to prove after giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings of work in his last start against San Francisco on Tuesday. Not only was that the worst start of the season for the rookie, but those six runs matched the six runs he had allowed in his previous eight appearances for the Braves spanning over 30 innings. The fireballer has a 3-2 record this season with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 47 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 2.72 moving forward. Atlanta has won 3 of his 4 starts this season. Los Angeles has lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Gonsolin who has a 9-0 record with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.75 and 3.74 moving forward. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.81 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and .118 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in his seven starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Gonsolin had a 2.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in seven starts at home but a 3.86 ERA and 144 WHIP in eight games and six starts on the road. The Dodgers have lost 7 of their last 8 road games with Gonsolin on the mound and favored up to a -150 price. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 games in Atlanta against the Braves.

FINAL TAKE: Ronald Acuna is getting the day off after leaving yesterday’s game when fouled a ball off his foot — but he should be available for pinch-hitting duty if necessary. The Dodgers are still without Mookie Betts who is on the Injured List with a rib injury. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (982) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (981) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: The Dodgers (37-23) have lost three in a row after their 2-0 loss to the Angels on Sunday. The Angels (29-33) have lost two of their last three games after a 4-1 loss at home to the New York Mets on Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE:

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: The New York Mets (39-22) have lost three of their last four games after their 11-6 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels in the second game of this series. Los Angeles (29-32) has now won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five or more runs in their last game. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing three or more straight Overs. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. The Mets are dealing with a tired bullpen that has pitched nine innings in the last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched nine or more innings in their last two games. New York’s receivers surrendered six runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed four or more earned runs in their last game. Walker gets the ball for them tonight. He has a 3-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 9 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.58 moving forward. His ERA on the road rises to a 3.41 mark -- and that coincides with the disparate home/road splits he was saddled with last season. While Walker had a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 games (15 starts) at home, those numbers rose to a 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 14 starts on the road. The Mets have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Walker the starting pitcher and priced up to +150. Walker’s teams have also played 7 straight Over when he is the starting pitcher in Interleague play. Walker faces an Angels team that ranks sixth in baseball in both weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created (wRC) when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles got Mike Trout back in the lineup last night — and he bashed two home runs to lead the scoring attack. The Angels banged out five home runs last night — and they have played 3 of their 4 games this season Over the Total after hitting four or more home runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 25 games at home Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. This team has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total in June. They counter with Sandoval who has a 3-1 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The left-hander is walking too many batters — and both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.31 and 4.08 moving forward. His ERA bumps up to 3.00 in five starts at home this season. Last season, Sandoval had a 3-6 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 77 innings — but in his 48 1/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 3.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Sandoval pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets are hitting right now — they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 Batting Average and a .754 OPS over that span. New York has played 4 straight Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-24) has won two of their last three games after their 5-1 victory at Miami on Sunday. Colorado (23-21) has lost four in a row and nine of their last 12 games with their 8-7 loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco is only five games over .500 — but they have a net run differential of +0.5 Runs-Per-Game. They have won 42 of their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have won 22 of their last 30 games after an off day. They return home to Oracle Park where they have won 45 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. Manager Gabe Kapler gives the ball to Carlos Rodon who has a 4-4 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are very encouraging on the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting a 3.25 and 3.30 ERA respectively moving forward. Rodon has 70 strikeouts in 55 innings. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Rodon is clicking on all cylinders with an organization in the Giants that consistently coaches up its pitching staff. Rodon has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205. His teams have won 10 of their last 15 home games with Rodon pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should thrive against a Rockies team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games after left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Rockies have lost 8 straight games after an off day — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 opening games to a new series. Now Colorado goes back on the road where they have lost 15 of their 22 games this season — and they have lost all 7 road games when they are an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They are scoring just 3.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .242 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .638. The lineup misses Kris Bryant who will likely remain on the Injured List through the All-Star break. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who has a 1-5 record along with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 10 starts. That ERA is the highest in MLB for qualified starting pitchers. He has already served up 18 homers in his 55 innings. It has been even worse on the road where he has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in three starts. What is concerning for the ground-ball pitcher is that why had a 3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 18 starts last year, those numbers sky-rocketed to a 5.38 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in 14 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Marquez on the mound as a money-line underdog. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has also lost 22 of their last 28 games against San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Scoring is down — and so are my investments in Run-Line favorites with teams like the Yankees and Astros not doing well covering these spreads. The Giants have played 13 games where they were favored at a price higher than my -150 threshold — while they have lost six of those games (not so good), all seven of their wins have been by more than one run (that’s good). Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 12 times this season — they have only have two upset wins in those games but all ten of their losses have been by multiple runs. This is when we want to invest in Run-Lines: San Francisco should win — and when they win (and the Rockies lose), it is usually by more than one run. So, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (22-27) has won three in a row and five of their last seven after their 8-4 upset win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Arizona (25-27) has lost five of their last seven games after their 6-0 shutout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: If you need more evidence that this Pittsburgh team is finally on the right path — how about them coming off a three-game sweep in Los Angeles against the Dodgers? The excellent farm system of the Pirates’ organization is finally starting to pay off. Pittsburgh has one of the better closers in the game right now in David Bednar — and they have only committed one error in their last four games after going the last two games in LA with a fielding mistake. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 9 games after not committing an error in two straight games. Now after completing their six-game road trip, they return home where they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The starting pitching staff remains an issue — but J.T. Brubaker is a fine starting pitcher who has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 10 starts despite an 0-4 record. In four starts at home this season, his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.86 and 1.33 marks. Last season in 11 starts at home, Brubaker had a 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231. He had a 5.36 ERA last season — but that number dropped to a 3.86 ERA when playing teams with a losing record. Brubaker always had potential if he could stop serving up gopher balls, Last year, he allowed 2.06 home runs per nine innings. This season, that home run rate has plummeted to a 0.94 clip per nine innings. The Pirates have won 3 of his 4 starts at home this season — and they have won 3 of his 4 starts when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. He should have success against this slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .229 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .647. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 22 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have lost 31 of their last 36 road games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Now after playing their last nine games at home, they go back on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games when favored. The Diamondbacks should not have lost 110 games last year given their roster — but this is still a mediocre team at best in the beginnings of a long rebuild. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last seven games at home. They have also lost 50 of their last 60 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games this season with the Total set at 8-8.5. They counter with Merrill Kelly who has a 3-3 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.24 and 4.08 moving forward. In his four starts on the road, his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home but a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. After a jump in velocity that carried over from spring training, the speed on his four-seamer has dipped again — and he has been saddled with 9.00 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP in his last four starts. He has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts — and he has only 13 strikeouts in those 17 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Kelly pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (22-13) has won two of their last three games after their 7-3 victory at Miami on Sunday. Atlanta (16-19) has lost two of their last three games after a 7-3 loss at home to San Diego yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee should continue their momentum tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also won 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They return home where they are 10-4 this season while scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 games at home when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Peralta who has a 2-1 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in six starts. The 25-year-old offers a good example regarding the need to parse past the frontline numbers. He is one of many starting pitchers who struggled out of the gate due to the abbreviated spring training. In his last four starts, Peralta has a 2.08 ERA with 28 strikeouts and only five walks in 21 2/3 innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.03 and 3.10 respectively. The right-hander comes off a strong season last year where he posted similar numbers. In 144 1/3 innings of work, Peralta posted a 10-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP — and he enjoyed a 2.88 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .158 in 16 games (15 starts) at home last year. Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 15 games at home with Peralta pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He should pitch well against this Braves team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Atlanta has just a .216 Batting Average with a .273 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .653. Atlanta is just 6-8 on the road this season — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while the Braves have played six straight Overs, they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They counter with Ian Anderson who has a 3-1 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not as bullish on Anderson’s start — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.92 and 4.55 moving forward. In 24 starts last year, Anderson had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 which is pretty accurate measure of what he is doing now. Looking under the hood, there are some troubling signs for the right-hander. After striking out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year, that number dropped to 23.8% last year. Now this year, Anderson is only striking out 17.1% of the batters he has faced. And he continues to walk too many batters with 12.4% of the batters has faced getting a base-on-balls. Now he faces a Brewers team that scores 5.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee opened as a money-line favorite in the -140 range — but with the news that Ronald Acuna remains out with an injury, the price has been slowly rising. I have a personal guideline to not endorse money-line favorites in MLB (and the NHL) if priced over -150 because I don’t like the expectation of needing to win these plays more than 60% of the time to break a profit. I find it to be helpful as to how to navigate a daily card. But I need to have deadlines as well. If it is late afternoon and I am still seeing -150 or lower prices, then I am comfortable in endorsing even if the price at some of the shops has moved higher than -150. I have no idea what the price will be when the game starts. If you end up having to invest more than -150, I still recommend the play. It’s a guideline, not a mandate sent down by the Gods from Mount Olympus. These two teams last played on May 8th when Atlanta won by a 9-2 score. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by six or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: New York (15-6) has won four of their last five games after their 3-0 victory against the Phillies last night. Philadelphia (10-11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Five New York pitchers combined to no-hit Philadelphia last night. The Mets have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. This team looks rejuvenated under veteran manager Buck Showalter — and they are getting the production they expected last year when they signed Francisco Lindor to a huge contract as a free agent. And they are getting great pitching. Showalter turns to Walker tonight who is making just his second appearance this year after going in the injured list with a bout of bursitis in his right shoulder. The right-hander pitched a four-inning simulated game on Monday where he threw 64 pitches. With everything fine from that effort, he will have an 80 to 85 pitch limit tonight. He looked good in his first game of the year against these Phillies against which he struck out four batters in two scoreless innings on April 11th. Walker had a 7-11 record last season with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 159 innings. Walker struggles on the road where he had 5.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 14 starts. But back at home at Citi Field, Walker enjoyed a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 15 starts (16 games). The Mets have won 12 of their last 15 games when Walker is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And if he gets in trouble, Showalter can turn to his red-hot bullpen that has a 1.73 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 26 innings at home. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 40 of their last 57 home games when favored. Philadelphia has lost 19 of their last 28 games after playing a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. They are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road where they have a 2-6 record this season — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games on the road. They counter with Gibson who has a 2-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in four starts. His best work has been at home where he owns a 1.42 ERA and a 0.55 WHIP in two starts — but his two worst starts have been on the road where he has a 5.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275. These disparate home/road splits corroborate his splits from last year where he had a 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .206 opponent’s batting average in 14 games (13 starts) at home but a 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in 17 starts on the road. Gibson did have a 3.71 ERA last season — but his SIERA and xFIP called for regression with those sabermetrics projecting ERAs of 4.40 and 4.14 respectively. The Phillies have lost 16 of their last 20 road games with Gibson pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And while Gibson also had a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 games (21 starts) at night — as opposed to his 2.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts in the afternoon — Philly has lost 13 of their last 15 road games at night with Gibson on the hill. The Mets have won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers including five straight winners at home. They are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Bryce Harper has been playing at designated hitter for the Phillies — but he is not at full strength as he is bothered with an elbow. The Mets have won 10 of their 12 games this season when priced as a favorite up to my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Max Fried in Game Six of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (104-73) kept their season alive on Sunday with their victory against the Braves in Game Five. Atlanta (98-78) holds a 3-2 lead in the series and can win the MLB title tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston demonstrated their resolve by overcoming a first-inning grand slam on the road in Game Five to outscore the Braves by a 9-1 margin the rest of the way. The Astros have won 13 of their last 19 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Houston has also won 59 of their last 81 games after an off day — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 9 playoff games at Minute Maid Park. They have also won 28 of their last 40 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia who had an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in the regular season. The right-hander was more effective at home where he had a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 15 games (13 starts) as compared to his 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. The Astros have won 8 of their last 10 home games with Garcia pitching with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. Atlanta blew their chance to win the World Series at home — and now they go on the road where they have lost 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. The Braves have lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play on the road — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games against American League teams as an underdog. They counter with Fried who had a 14-7 record with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 28 regular season starts. The lefty was better at home where he had a 2.94 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 14 starts — but those numbers rose to a 3.14 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 14 starts on the road. Fried has struggled in these playoffs. In his last two starts, he has a 10.24 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP spanning 9 2/3 innings. The Braves have lost 6 of their last 8 road games with Fried pitching as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. He faces an Astros team that has won 6 of their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has won 9 of their last 13 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games when facing elimination. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 9 playoff games with the opportunity to close out a playoff series. 25* MLB Tuesday Television Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Atlanta Braves (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Max Fried in Game Six of the World Series. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (959) versus the Atlanta Braves (960) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Tucker Davidson in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (103-73) finds themselves on the brink of elimination after losing last night by a 3-2 score. Atlanta (98-77) has won four of their last five games to take a 3-1 lead in the World Series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Don’t count Houston out just yet — and win tonight takes the World Series back to Minute Maid Park for the final two games. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by just one run. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Framber Valdez tonight who had an 11-6 record in the regular season with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he had a 2.88 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last start on the road in the playoffs, Valdez pitched eight innings of one-run ball to clinch the ALCS at Boston on October 20th. In his last three starts away from home, Valdez has a 0.83 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP spanning 21 2/3 innings. Houston has won 5 of their last 7 road games with Valdez pitching as the favorite — and they have won 12 of his last 18 starts at night. Atlanta will be relying on yet another bullpen game tonight. Manager Brian Snitker will use Tucker Davidson for the first time since June 15th as his opener — this will be just his sixth career MLB start. He had a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 innings in the regular season — but he sported a 5.14 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 14 innings at home. I thought this was the case last night — but I now highly suspect that Davidson is disguising a Drew Smyly bulk-inning outing after he allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings in the team’s bullpen game in Game Four of the NLCS against the Dodgers. The lefty had an 11-4 record in the regular season but with a 4.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 29 games (23 starts). In his 39 innings including the playoffs since the beginning of August, Smyly has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Despite winning three of the first four games in this series, the Braves have lost 10 of their last 14 games in Interleague play as an underdog. They have also lost 11 of their last 14 home games against American League teams.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 8 opportunities in the playoffs to close out the series — and Houston has won 8 of their last 12 playoff games when trailing in the series. The Astros have won 19 of their last 30 games when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. And while Houston has scored only two runs in the last two days in the World Series, they have won 13 of their last 21 games when avenging two losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (959) versus the Atlanta Braves (960) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Tucker Davidson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Houston (103-71) evened the World Series at 1-1 with their 7-2 victory on Wednesday. Atlanta (96-77) had been on a two-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 21-7-2 in their last 30 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 11-4-2 in their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off day. They go on the road where they have played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia who has an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 regular season appearances (28 starts). The right-hander comes off 5 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start in Game Six of the ALCS last Friday. But that start was at home where he had a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in the regular season. On the road, Garcia’s numbers jump to a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in 15  regular season starts. The Astros have played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Keep in mind that Garcia had been rocked with a 16.60 ERA and a 2.65 WHIP in his previous three starts while allowing at least five earned runs in each appearance. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .273 batting average. Atlanta has played 26 of their last 35 home games in Interleague play against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Over is also 6-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 8 games in Interleague play at home. Manager Brian Snitker counters with Anderson who had a 9-5 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 regular season starts. There has been a steady decline in his performances as the season has moved on — he has a 3.72 ERA in his last eight starts since the beginning of September. He did allow only one earned run in four innings in his last appearance in Game Six of the NLCS on Saturday. The Braves have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Anderson following an effort where he allowed one earned run or less — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total when he is pitching on five or six days of rest. Atlanta has also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Anderson pitchers at home.

FINAL TAKE: Houston is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and the Over is 7-2-2 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The weather may drop into the high-40s tonight and it may be rainy. That is a two-way straight since the yucky conditions impact the pitchers as much as the hitters. If the Total was 10 or higher, I would worry a little more about the weather. At 8.5, I’m fine. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (923) versus the Atlanta Braves (922) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (112-61) pulled within a 3-2 margin in this series on Thursday with their 11-2 victory against the Braves at home. Atlanta (94-76) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Two things happened within the last 12 or so hours that put this 25* side opportunity into play. First, Max Scherzer was pulled as the Dodgers starting pitcher with his continued arm issues. I don’t know how to assess the “dead arm” he claimed to have on Sunday (that, hopefully, is a Tomorrow Problem). Second, with Buehler being tapped as the starting pitcher on three days rest, the money-line price has dropped below my -150 price threshold. I’m not as worried about the short rest — he pitched on three days rest against San Francisco in the NLDS on October 12th where he allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had a 16-4 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts in the regular season. He had a 2.47 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average in 27 starts at night. He has a reliable 3.32 ERA in 13 starts in the postseason. He has a 3.37 ERA in his two starts against Atlanta this season including his 3 2/3 innings against them on Tuesday. Buehler did have seven days off after pitching on three days rest and his start in Game Three of the NLCS. He has thrown just 8 innings since October 8th. The Dodgers should build off the momentum they established on Thursday when they banged five home runs. They have won 4 of their last 5 games after hitting at least five home runs in their last game. They have won 36 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 10 runs in their last contest. They have also won 38 of their last 56 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They go back on the road where they have won 8 of their last 11 games — and they have won 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Atlanta has lost 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least ten runs in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least eight runs. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 regular season starts. After giving up two runs in 3 innings last Sunday where he allowed three hits and walked three batters, he now has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in his last nine starts this season. He has a 7.40 ERA in 7 1/3 innings against the Dodgers this year. LA also has a bullpen edge tonight — especially coming off the day of rest. The Dodgers have a 3.08 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season — and they have a 2.57 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in their last seven games. The Braves bullpen has a 4.36 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in their last seven games — and they have a 3.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP for the year.

FINAL TAKE: While the Dodgers are dealing with a long list of injuries, they still have superstars like Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Cody Bellinger leading a core of players with tons of deep postseason experience. Atlanta has Freddie Freeman and then younger talent and retreads. It matters. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 7 close-out games in the playoffs. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 potential elimination games in the playoffs (including all three this season). 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (923) versus the Atlanta Braves (922) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: Houston (101-70) took a 3-2 lead in the American League Championship Series with their 9-1 win against the Red Sox on Wednesday. Boston (98-74) looks to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has all the momentum in this series after winning the last two games on the road at Fenway Park by a combined 18-3 run margin. They usually feed off this positive energy. The Astros have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least eight runs. Houston has plated nine runners in two straight games. They have won 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 18 of their last 26 games after scoring at least eight runs in two straight contests. The Astros return home to Minute Maid Park where they have won 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 15 of their last 23 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Manager Dusty Baker gives the ball to Garcia after he was bombed for five runs in just one inning in his start on Saturday. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he had a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 15 appearances (13 starts) in the regular season — as compared to his 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .252 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts on the road. Garcia’s start on Saturday was during the day — and he had a 4.24 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in seven regular-season afternoon appearances (six starts). Under the lights, Garcia pitched better with a 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 23 games pitched at night (22 starts). Baker will have a quick hook for Garcia if he struggles — and he has the benefit of a rested bullpen that has only pitched one inning in the last two days with the off-day and Framber Valdez’s eight innings on Wednesday. The Astros bullpen has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP at home this year. Boston has lost 13 of their last 18 games after losing two in a row by four or more runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games after losing their last two games by at least six runs. Manager Alex Cora has had to lean heavily on his bullpen given his faltering starting pitchers. The Red Sox pen has pitched 3 2/3 and 4 innings in their last two games — and they have allowed four and seven earned runs in those games. Boston has lost 38 of their last 60 games after their bullpen allowed at least four earned runs in their last game including losing 13 of those 21 circumstances this season. Eovaldi pitched out of the bullpen on Tuesday — and in his 24 pitches, he got crushed for four runs. He is pitching on short rest because Cora is out of options. In theory, Eovaldi’s outing on Tuesday was on his normal bullpen workout day between starts. In practice, the mental and physical stress of pitching in the playoffs is much more grueling than a mere bullpen session to work out some kinks. And that appearance was at home at Fenway Park where he had a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241 in 19 regular season starts. Now Eovaldi pitches on the road where he was saddled with a 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in 13 regular season starts. Boston has lost 6 of their last 9 road games with Eovaldi pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. He faces a hot-hitting Astros team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .271 Batting Average and a .341 On-Base Percentage in their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has lost 5 of their last 7 games at Minute Maid Park in Houston. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (922) versus the Boston Red Sox (921) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) (action if you can, but being required to list Jesse Chavez and Julio Urias — or whoever — is fine). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (93-75) blew a 5-2 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning by giving up four runs in a 6-5 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (111-60) still trails 2-1 in the National League Championship Series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves had won five straight games before their loss yesterday. Atlanta has played 43 of their last 68 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Manager Brian Snitker has a pitching problem for this game — the result of a long season where they have lost several starting pitchers to injury. Snitker initially decided on Huascar Ynoa to pitch tonight — but he has been scratched after experiencing shoulder inflammation late this afternoon. It looks like Snitker will use Jesse Chavez as his opener — he comes off giving up two hits and walking a batter as the final pitcher for the Braves in that disastrous 8th inning last night. Luke Jackson gave up four runs to begin the inning. Both pitchers may be lacking in confidence. The Atlanta hitters need to assume that they need to score plenty of runs tonight given this being a bullpen game — but they get to play with reckless abandon. The Braves have scored five runs in three of their last four games. They are heavy underdogs tonight — and they have played 41 of their last 61 games when a money-line underdog priced at +200 or higher. Los Angeles has stranded ten runners in two straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after stranding ten or more runners in two straight games. Furthermore, the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who had a 20-3 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts in the regular season. The left-hander allowed two runs in an inning of relief on Sunday in Game Two of this series. While Roberts can tell himself he just used Urias’ normal bullpen session between starts for that inning of work, pitching in the playoffs is more stressful than just the regular bullpen session a couple of days after a previous start. Urias has not been as effective at home either where he has a 3.27 ERA in 14 starts in the regular season as opposed to his 2.71 ERA in 18 starts on the road. Urias also sees his ERA rise to a  3.38 mark in his 37 1/3 innings in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 5 straight Overs with Urias their starting pitcher in October. The Dodgers have also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total with Urias pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when trailing in a playoff series including all four occasions this season. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when leading in a playoff series including all three this season. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (917) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (918) (action if you can, but being required to list Jesse Chavez and Julio Urias — or whoever — is fine). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-70) trails 2-1 in the American League Championship Series after their 12-3 loss to the Red Sox last night. Boston (98-72) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is now 9-3-2 in Houston’s last 14 games on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 120 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. Consistently winning MLB Totals bets requires assessing the competing starting pitchers. Manager Dusty Baker turns to Greinke to make just his fourth appearance since the beginning of September. The veteran right-hander has been recovering from a difficult bout with COVID. For the season, he has an 11-6 record with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His decline this season began before testing positive for COVID. After posting a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 before the All-Star Game, he has since had a 5.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 since the All-Star Break. In his last five appearances, Greinke has an 11.04 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. And in his lone appearance against the Red Sox this season, he gave up four runs and seven hits in just three innings. The Astros have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching in games when they are priced in the +/- 125 range. Baker will likely give him a quick hook when he gets into trouble tonight — but the Houston bullpen has a 4.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in their last seven games. The Astros pen also has a 4.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP when pitching on the road this season. Baker has used his relievers to pitch 6 1/3 and 8 innings in the last two games in this series — and Houston has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitches at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Greinke faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .324 Batting Average, .370 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .950. The Over is 13-2-1 in Boston’s last 16 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a win by six or more runs. They have also played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after scoring at least ten runs in their last game. They stay at home at Fenway Park where the Over is 17-5-1 in their last 22 home games — and the Over is 22-8-4 in their last 33 home games in the playoffs. Boston has also played 33 of their last 49 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Manager Alex Cora counters with Pivetta who has a 9-8 record with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 31 games (30 starts) this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in his 15 starts at home in Fenway Park. Pivetta has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP since the All-Star Break. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Pivetta pitching when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. The Boston bullpen has a 4.21 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this year. 

FINAL TAKE: The Astros are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 7-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (911) and the Boston Red Sox (912) listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Boston Red Sox (910) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Houston (99-69) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 9-5 loss at home to the Red Sox. Boston (97-72) has won four of their last five games to even this ALCS at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 19-5-2 in the Astros’ last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in Houston’s last 14 games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. The Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Urquidy who has an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 — but those numbers rise to a 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .229 in ten starts. In his last five starts, Urquidy has a 4.44 ERA. There is a reason he has not pitched since October 3rd with manager Dusty Baker looking elsewhere for his starting pitching and bullpen options. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .318 Batting Average, .371 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .924. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last game They return home to Fenway Park where the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games — and the Over is 21-8-4 in their last 33 home games in the playoffs. Boston has also played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They counter with Rodriguez who has a 13-8 record with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 games (31 starts). The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 5.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .273 opponent’s batting average on the road. In his last eight starts, Rodriguez has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .293 Batting Average, .360 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .851. Houston has played 4 straight Overs against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Monday TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (909) and the Boston Red Sox (910) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (110-59) lost the opening game of this best-of-seven series in the National League Championship Series with their 2-1 loss to the Braves on Saturday. Atlanta (92-74) has won six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LIKNE: Los Angeles has still won 22 of their last 28 games — and 19 of those 22 victories were by more than one run. The Dodgers have still won 30 of their last 40 games after playing a game where neither side scored more than three runs. Los Angeles has not allowed more than four runs in nine straight games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least six games. And while the Dodgers have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then won 50 of their last 67 games after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 44 of their last 58 games when favored — and they have won 39 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dave Roberts gave Scherzer an extra day of rest after he got the save in Game Five of the NLDS with a 13-pitch ninth inning on Thursday. The right-hander had a 15-4 record with a 2.46 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP in the regular season with the Dodgers and Washington Nationals. Since being acquired by Los Angeles, Scherzer posted a 7-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 11 regular season starts. In his three appearances in this postseason, Scherzer has a 1.46 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 12 1/3 innings. His teams have won 13 of their last 14 games on the road as a money-line favorite priced at -125 or higher when he is making the start. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .236 Batting Average, .297 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .688. Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have lost 4 of their last 6 games in the playoffs as an underdog. And in their last 7 home games in the NLCS, the Braves have lost 5 of these games. They counter with Anderson who has a 9-5 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts. He has regressed a in the second half of the season a bit with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his last eight starts. The deeper sabermetrics have been calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 moving forward. Anderson did pitch five scoreless innings in his last start on Monday in the NLDS against Milwaukee — but Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 games with Anderson following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. The Braves have also lost 5 of their last 7 games with Anderson pitching as a money-line underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the -1.5 Run-Line spread in 18 of their last 21 victories when favored at a -155 or higher price including nine of these last ten situations. 25* MLB Sunday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (908) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Boston (96-71) reached the American League Championship Series with their 6-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Monday to close out that ALDS in four games. Houston (98-68) reached the ALCS with their 10-1 win at Chicago against the White Sox to end that series in four games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Boston’s bullpen has pitched at least four innings in their last three games, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. Additionally, Boston has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Sale who had a 5-1 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts in the regular season. The left-hander got rocked in his start against the Rays as he gave up five runs in one inning of work last Friday. In his last three starts, Sale has a 10.84 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP. All three of those starts were on the road where Sale has been less effective this season. While Sale has a 2.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts at home, those numbers rise to a 4.61 ERA and 146 WHIP in his three regular starts on the road. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .311 Batting Average, .375 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .913. Houston has scored at least six runs in seven straight games. The Over is 18-7-2 in The Astros’ last 27 games after a win — and the Over is 17-5-2 in their last 24 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 9-2-2 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They host this game at Minute Maid Park where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 40 of their last 59 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Valdez who has an 11-6 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts. The lefty has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.45 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 11 starts. In his last six starts, Valdez has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in six starts.

FINAL TAKE: Valdez faces a hot-hitting Red Sox team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .317 Batting Average, .375 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 913 in their last seven games. 25* MLB Friday Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (901) and the Houston Astros (902) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) and the San Francisco Giants (972) listing both starting pitchers Corey Knebel and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (109-58) evened this best-of-five series at 2-2 with their 7-2 victory at home on Tuesday. San Francisco (109-57) returns home to host the final game of this National League Divisional Series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have held the Giants to two runs or less in the last three games of this series after their opening game 4-0 shutout loss (against Webb). Not only has Los Angeles played 38 of their last 62 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game, but they have also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Dodgers have also played 15 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an off day. The day of rest will help the Los Angeles bullpen be ready for this game — a showdown in which manager Dave Roberts will use every healthy starting pitcher at his disposal in this single-elimination contest. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season — and they have a 2.66 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP in their last seven games. Roberts has made a surprise decision this afternoon to use Corey Knebel as an opener before turning to Urias as his bulk pitcher. It is a crafty move to keep Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler from stacking his lineup with right-handed batters. Knebel is a good reliever — he has a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season. Urias should then get the ball after holding the Giants to just one run in five innings on Saturday in Game Two of this series. The left-hander had a 20-6 record in the regular season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 regular season starts. Additionally, in his last 12 starts since the beginning of August, Urias has a 1.77 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. In his six starts against San Francisco this season, Urias has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. And in his carer 32 1/3 innings in the playoffs, Urias has a 3.06 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He should pitch well tonight. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .197 Batting Average, .251 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .574. San Francisco has not scored more than four runs in four straight games. They are hitting just .208 in their last five games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a five-game stretch where they did not have a batting average over .225. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 15 games after an off day, they have played 11 of their games Under the Total. San Francisco’s bullpen has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP this season — and they have posted a 2.92 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP against NL West foes. They counter with Webb who has an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in the regular season. He pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts in Game One of this series. When pitching at home at Oracle Park this season, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) in the regular season. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has been shut out twice in this series — they really miss the injured Max Muncy. Both managers will suspect runs will be hard to come by tonight — and they will manage accordingly. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB National League West Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) and the San Francisco Giants (972) listing both starting pitchers Corey Knebel and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (955) and the Boston Red Sox (956) listing both starting pitchers Collin McHugh and Eduardo Rodriguez. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (101-64) has lost three of their last four games after their 6-4 loss at Fenway Park last night in 13 innings. Boston (95-71) has won six of their last seven games to take a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both bullpens were taxed last night — so there will be mostly tired pitchers taking the mound tonight. The Rays used eight relievers last night after Drew Rasmussen pitched only two innings making the start. Manager Kevin Cash will use Collin McHugh as his opener to pitch probably not more than two innings if he can last that long. The right-hander has a 6-1 record with a 1.55 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 37 limited appearances which include seven opening assignments like this. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.87 and 3.06 moving forward. McHugh has pitched 20 1/3 innings in the postseason but has been saddled with a 4.87 ERA. Luis Patino will likely follow him up since he did not pitch last night. He has a 5-3 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in mixed work in the pen and some spot starts. The right-hander has a 5.77 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings on the road — and he has a 5.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in nine games. In four innings of previous playoff experience, he has a 6.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. They face a Red Sox team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .298 Batting Average, .370 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .893. Boston scores 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .280 Batting Average, .345 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .826. The Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay has played 30 of their last 48 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. The Rays have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the playoffs as a money-line underdog. The Over is also 7-2-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 8 road games in the ALDS. The Over is 7-3-1 in Boston’s last 11 games after a win — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Red Sox used six relievers last night to pitch 8 innings after the bullpen was called on to pitch 8 and 6 1/3 innings in the first two games in this series. Boston has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after their bullpen pitched at least four innings in three straight games. Additionally, the Over is 15-5-1 in the Red Sox’s last 21 games at home — and the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Over is also 20-8-4 in their last 32 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Rodriguez who was knocked out in just 1 2/3 innings where he gave up two runs in Game One of this series on Thursday. The left-hander has a 5.25 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 22 1/3 innings against the Rays this season. He also now has a 14.85 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP in nine games including two starts in the postseason. He is pitching on three days rest at home at Fenway Park where he has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with opposing hitters posting a .282 batting average in 13 starts this year. Boston has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Tampa Bay scores 5.6 Runs-Per-Game on the road — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 26-11-2 in the last 39 meetings between these two teams — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 games when these two teams are playing at Fenway Park. Lastly, the Rays have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (955) and the Boston Red Sox (956) listing both starting pitchers Collin McHugh and Eduardo Rodriguez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (934) versus the Houston Astros (933) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Luis Garcia. THE SITUATION: Chicago (93-71) has lost three games in a row after their 9-4 loss in Houston against the Astros on Friday. Houston (97-67) has won four games in a row after taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. They return home where they have a 53-28 record this season at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. They have also won 12 of their last 16 home games when priced in the +/- 125 range. Furthermore, the White Sox have won 6 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have won 7 of their last 9 playoff games when favored. Manager Tony LaRussa taps Cease as his starting pitcher. The right-hander had a 13-7 record in the regular season with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 16 starts as compared to his 4.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .241. Chicago has won 16 of their last 24 games with Cease pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs in potential close-out situations. The Astros have lost 4 straight games on the road — and they have lost 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 53 road games when priced in the +/- 125 range, they have lost 33 of these contests. Manager Dusty Baker counters with Garcia who has an 11-8 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 30 appearances (28 starts). The right-hander does his best pitching at home in Minute Maid Park where he owns a 2.39 ERA,1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .210 — but those numbers rise to a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in 15 starts. The Astros have lost 6 of their last 8 games with Garcia pitching on the road priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a White Sox team that scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games in Chicago against the White Sox — and the White Sox have won 22 of their last 32 home games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* MLB Divisional Series Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (934) versus the Houston Astros (933) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Luis Garcia. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (927) versus the San Francisco Giants (928) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Kevin Gausman. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (107-57) looks to rebound from losing the opening game of this best-of-five series last night by a 4-0 score. San Francisco (108-55) has won nine of their last ten games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles entered the postseason on an eight-game winning streak — and they have still won 42 of their last 54 games. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by four or more runs. Additionally, Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to a divisional rival where they did not score more than one run. The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games after getting shutout in their last game including winning four of their five games after getting shutout this season. Los Angeles has won 49 of their last 67 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have not allowed more than four runs in four straight games, they have then won 28 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than four runs in four straight games. The Dodgers have still won 19 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games in the playoffs. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who has a 20-3 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.71 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 18 starts as compared to his 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home. The Dodgers have won 15 of their last 17 road games with Urias pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. In his last 11 starts since the start of August, Urias has a 1.77 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He also has plenty of postseason experience with 16 appearances in the playoffs with two starts in 27 1/3 innings. He has a 6-2 record in the postseason with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. San Francisco has lost 4 of their last 6 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against NL West opponent. The Giants counter with Gausman who has a 14-6 record with a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA in 14 starts as opposed to his 2.33 ERA on the road. Gausman has not been the same pitching since the All-Star Break where he has a 4.42 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in his last 15 starts. San Francisco has lost 10 of these last 15 starts with Gausman on the mound. His teams have also lost 11 of their last 17 games with Gausman the starting pitcher in games where his team is the money-line underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 12 games when avenging a shutout loss against their opponent including four of five of these situations this season. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (927) versus the San Francisco Giants (928) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.