At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City comes into this game with momentum after upsetting the Bills on the road. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 292.5 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 17.1 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 22 of their 31 road games in the Reid as an underdog — and they covered all four of their road games as an underdog in the last three seasons. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 21 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Ravens outrushed the Texans last week by +191 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after outrushing their last opponent by +100 or more yards. Baltimore earned the right to host this game with the best record in the AFC — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (319) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: I appreciate what this Bills team has done in the second half of the season — and after enduring a torturous campaign last year where they were dealt emotional challenge after emotional challenge while still trying to get over psychic trauma of losing in the final nine seconds to this Chiefs team in the playoffs — this team has a better perspective that a season is a marathon rather than a sprint. If both teams were at full health and playing on equal rest, I might have invested in Buffalo in this showdown. But I do not like this situation for the Bills — especially when now laying up to a field goal. The Chiefs have two extra days of rest for this contest after completing their win against the Dolphins last Saturday afternoon as opposed to the Bills finishing their game with the Steelers two days later given the postponement from the Sunday kickoff due to weather. Then there is the Buffalo injury list with various maladies beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo. The Bills come on a six-game winning streak — but too often they perform better after facing recent adversity. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have covered the spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. No one embodies this maddening inconsistency than Josh Allen who is responsible for 41 turnovers in the last two seasons including 22 this year. The Chiefs offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But what should not be underestimated about this Kansas City team is the defense under Steve Spagnuolo who has won four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants and now the Chiefs. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 straight Unders after not allowing more than nine points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games coming off a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in their last two games. Led by Mahomes, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs will also be looking to avenge two straight losses to the Bills since their epic 42-36 victory in the 2022 playoffs — they last played on December 10th last month with Buffalo pulling off a 20-17 upset victory as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (317) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-8) has won two games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 32-9 upset victory against Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog last Monday. Detroit (13-5) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions earned their first playoff victory since 1991 with their triumph last week. How did they respond? Cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson called out Tampa Bay Baker Mayfield by suggesting how good the Buccaneers wide receivers could be if they had a better quarterback. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took two Zoom interviews on Friday for potential head coaching jobs. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn took an interview as well. These are the actions of a losing franchise. Head coach Dan Campbell can declare he has changed the culture — but talk is cheap. He still lost his cool a few weeks ago in the game at Dallas by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. You know what teams that have won a playoff game since the final years of the George Herbert Walker Bush administration all have in common: a long list of bad officiating calls that went against them. Get over it. Well, Detroit did — they defeated Matthew Stafford last week in the Prodigal Son’s return to the Motor City for the first time since the blockbuster trade that sent him to Los Angeles. It is as if the Lions won their Super Bowl last Sunday — so cue the job interviews and the trash talk. And I see this as a gigantic letdown spot — especially at this number of laying close to a touchdown. As it is, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win three points or less. They have also fueled to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games at home after no-cover win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Moving forward, Gardner-Johnson might want to worry about his own play rather than opposing quarterbacks — the Lions have allowed at least 323 passing yards in four straight games while surrendering 353 passing Yards-Per-Game during that stretch. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after giving up at least 275 passing yards in three or more games in a row. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the postseason. Now here comes a gritty Tampa Bay team that comes in under the radar. With cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamal Dean healthy again, the Buccaneers may have the best defense in the league. They have held their last three opponents to just 261.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 10.7 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense and tied for fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry. On the other side of the ball, second-year running back Rachaad White has emerged by rushing for at least 75 yards in five of his last seven games. With wide receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs still have star power that are holdovers from their Super Bowl championship team three years ago. And then Mayfield is at his best when he is playing with a chip on his shoulder rather than with five national television commercial spots. In his last seven games, Mayfield has 16 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay will have revenge on their minds as well after losing at home to the Lions by a 20-6 score on October 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Detroit NBC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (315) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th. Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Let’s talk weather first — there is a 75% chance of rain with winds gusting up to 16 miles per hour. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled in the rain earlier in the season at Cleveland when he completed only 12 of 27 passes for 125 yards with only one touchdown pass and an interception in the Niners’ 19-17 loss to the Browns. There are plenty of caveats from that situation. Cleveland’s defense was playing as good as any team in the league at that point of the season — especially at home. Both Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got injured and left that game — and San Francisco’s offense is much different without either one of those players. And Purdy still orchestrated a late drive to put his team in position to win the game but rookie kicker Jake Moody missed the potential game-winning kick as time expired. Weather is tricky to assess — while the kicking game could be impacted by the wind and rain, the pass rush slows down in wet conditions. The books have not adjusted the point spread nor the Total given these weather updates — so I am not persuaded to change my side assessment. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss to an NFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning vie or six of their last seven games. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game. They are outscoring their guests by +12.2 Points-Per-Game when playing at home — and they are outgaining them by +134.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Green Bay pulled off the shocker last week in Dallas despite surrendering 510 yards and getting outgained by -95 net yards. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after giving up 500 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Now Green Bay stays on the road on a short week and travels west to play the 49ers. The Packers are getting outgained on the road by -12.0 net YPG. Green Bay is very vulnerable on defense. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also suspect— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week. They allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.7% of their passes against them — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. Head coach Matt LaFleur was aggressive with his play-calling last week against the Cowboys — and his offense has generated 7.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But Green Bay has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.0 or more YPP under LaFleur.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (304) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.  Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles have devolved into a big mess with chaos running through the organization. After beginning the season with Super Bowl aspirations, the team has collapsed — and the finger-pointing is rampant. The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. There is a school of thought that the postseason could refocus this team — but it is also possible that the team fails to provide maximum effort in this lost season with coaching changes seeming on the table. Resiliency has not been a characteristic of this team recently. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss against an NFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or more games in a row. And while they got outgained by -116 net yards by the Giants, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants. The Eagles stay on the road where they are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. While the Buccaneers' defense does not get talked about enough, they may have the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG when playing at home — and they have held their last three opponents to just 271.3 total YPG resulting in 11.7 PPG. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers lost at home to the Eagles by a 25-11 score as a 5-point underdog back on September 25th when both of these teams were playing under much different circumstances. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the xBuffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win on the road against an AFC North rival. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game while leading the offense to 473 total yards — and Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG which has helped them post a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +98.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers will be without their best defensive player T.J. Watt given his MCL knee injury. They lost six of their seven games when he was out with an injury last season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Buffalo CBS-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (154) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit comes into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Lions have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. This Lions team has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace. Detroit will play before a rabid crowd tonight that has not hosted a playoff game in the downtown area since the Bobby Layne era (their last playoff game took place at the Silverdome about an hour north in Pontiac). Detroit is generating 408.8 total YPG at home resulting in 30.5 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +8.9 PPG. The Lions have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win by three points or less against an NFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games following a win on the road against a divisional foe. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (150) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday. Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins had an opportunity to claim the second seed and face the Bills once again in South Beach this week — but their loss last Sunday night puts them very much behind the eight ball in the Wild Card round. It’s bad enough for them that they played the late game on Sunday night and now play on the road on a short week against the Chiefs. And the weather conditions in Kansas City are perhaps their worst nightmare. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. Miami is also a M*A*S*H unit right now with a bevy of injuries headlined by Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard out on defense — and they had to sign veterans off the street this week to fill out their defensive end depth chart (and they are expected to play tonight). Head coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. Now it is dangerous to discount a team in wounded animal mode like the Dolphins are — but this sentiment helped motivate my backing them last Sunday night at home in that crucial game against Buffalo. Perhaps they win (or at least cover the point spread as the home underdog) if not for the Bills’ 96-yard punt return for a touchdown in the second half that changed the momentum of that game. But the fact remains that the Dolphins did not score in the second half while getting outgained by -198 net yards with the offense only generating 275 total yards. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 road games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last contest. The Dolphins' defense is faltering lately as they have given up 434.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Kansas City has experience playing in this cold weather — especially in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes commented that the practices in these conditions are worse because they do not have the benefit of heaters on the sidelines. Mahomes also throws a crisper ball than Tagovailoa bites through the wind — so the Chiefs should have a net edge in the passing game. Playing at Arrowhead Stadium already gives Kansas City a big advantage as it is — they are outscoring their guests by +6.2 net PPG and outgaining them by +106 net YPG due to their outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by three points or less. And while they have not allowed more than 20 points in five straight games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (144) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-3) has won five straight games and nine of their last 10 contests with their 56-19 victory against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (9-7) has won two straight games after their 30-23 upset victory at Seattle as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs — so head coach John Harbaugh has the luxury of resting several of his key starters. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, wide receivers            Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton are not expected to play — and players like left tackle Ronnie Stanley may not get much playing time when push comes to shove. But roster limits prevent head coaches from benching all their starters in situations like this. Baltimore prides themselves on their roster depth — and they have demonstrated during their 24-game winning streak in the preseason that they do not compromise on their commitment to winning games. So while their best players will not play in this one — don’t underestimate how much they would like to ruin their arch-rival's opportunity to make the playoffs. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after scoring 40 or more points. Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback who has a career 65.6% completion percentage. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 6 straight games at home as an underdog. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Pittsburgh will have the burden of expectations since they must win this game — and then get help from some other results — to have a chance to earn a wild card spot in the AFC playoff race. The Steelers have pulled off two straight upset victories to create this opportunity after their 34-11 upset win at home against Cincinnati two weeks ago. But Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Pittsburgh has scored 64 combined points in their last two games — but this remains an offense that had not scored more than 16 points in their previous three games on the road. Mason Rudolph has provided a spark for the offense — but he has not been nearly as effective on the road in his career than he has at home, despite his good performance against the Seahawks last week. Rudolph completes 65.6% of his passes at home with 12 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in his career — but on the road, he is completing only 58.7% of his passes with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions.   

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens not only want to screw their arch-rival's playoff chances — but they will also want to avenge their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 5-point road favorite on October 8th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the opportunity to exact revenge — and the underdog is 23-5-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings between these AFC North rivals. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Baltimore ABC-TY/ESPN Special with the Baltimore Ravens (468) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (467). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281) and in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is riding high after their triumph in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating two or more conference rivals in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Quarterback Quinn Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 350 or more yards in their last contest. Longhorns’ safety Derek Williams, Jr. will miss the first half of this game after getting suspended during the Big 12 Championship Game for targeting — and that will leave a suspect Texas secondary even more vulnerable. The Longhorns rank 86th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. The Huskies generate 470.4 total Yards-Per-Game with 344 of those yards coming in the air. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against opponents generating 450 or more YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row against Pac-12 opponents. And while the Huskies have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than once in four or more games in a row. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies will have the better quarterback on the field in Michael Penix, Jr. who outdueled Bo Nix twice in their two showdowns with Oregon. The Huskies rank 6th in Passing Success Rate — and they rank 7th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate to keep defenses honest. Running back Dillon Johnson averages more than 3.0 Yards after contact. The Washington offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country — and this was a unit that protected Penix for just five pressures in his 55 dropbacks in the Alamo Bowl last season against Texas which the Huskies won by a 27-20 score. Washington leads the nation with a pressure-to-sack ratio of only 3.2%. Penix will have plenty of time to pick apart this vulnerable Longhorns pass defense. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Texas-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) had their four-game winning streak snapped in their 26-0 loss to Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Tennessee (8-4) ended their two-game losing streak in a 48-24 victory against Vanderbilt as a 27-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa is many bettor’s Kryptonite because of their anemic offense — and they are an even uglier underdog coming off a shutout loss to Michigan. But the Hawkeyes defense is one of the best in the nation — and they are balanced as they rank 12th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They held their opponents to only 274.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 13.2 Points-Per-Game. Iowa also has an elite special teams unit. The key to playing against a Kirk Ferentz-coached team is to not play aggressively since they feast on mistakes — but I am not sure that is in Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s DNA, especially in a bowl game with little at stake. Given that Heupel is turning to his blue-chip freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in this game only compounds this potential problem for the Volunteers. Look for much of Iowa’s scoring coming from exploiting mistakes Tennessee makes in this game. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss including four of these last five circumstances. They have not allowed more than 264 yards in their last two games after the Wolverines only managed to gain 213 yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two or more games in a row. Admittedly, Iowa has not scored more than 15 points in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than 17 points in three or more games in a row. And while they have only averaged 234.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games for failing to average more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. The Hawkeyes' only significant player not playing in this game is wide receiver Diante Vines who entered the transfer portal. The Iowa offensive line is healthy again after the month off. Tennessee has had some defections that will be impactful. Quarterback Joe Milton has opted out of this game which is why Iamaleava is getting his shot. The Volunteers will also be without their top two running backs after Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small opted out of this game. Additionally, the Tennessee defense has taken some hits with defensive end Tyler Baron, safety Wesley Walker, and cornerback  Doneiko Slaughter heading the long list of players that entered the transfer portal. The Volunteers surrendered 376.6 YPG and 27.8 PPG in their five games away from home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. And while they outgained the Commodores by +311 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Ferentz has won ten bowl games in his long tenure at Iowa — and the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota’s 390 yards last week against the Lions was one more yard than they allowed — but they fell short because of a -3 net turnover margin. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss at home. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. Mullens threw for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have given up 57 combined points in two straight games — they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. The Vikings stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Green Bay got outgained by -25 net yards last week after surrendering 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (132) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-8) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-23 upset loss to New England as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-10) has lost three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 24-22 loss to Buffalo as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Chargers last week with the expectation that the team would play better after Brandon Staley was finally fired. Getting rid of the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West united the team much like the Las Vegas Raiders have rallied around each other after their hated head coach Josh McDaniels was let go. While the Raiders continue to fight for their interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the hope that owner Mark Davis will tap him as their permanent boss, there is little chance that the Chargers interim head coach Giff Smith will be given the permanent job. Last week was likely a dead cat’s bounce for this team. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by seven points or less. The Chargers benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Bills — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They only rushed for 98 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last game. This group is a M*A*S*H unit right now. The offense is without quarterback Justin Herbert along with wide receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and now even Joshua Palmer who played last week. The defense is missing Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray among several players. Denver has their opportunity to demonstrate how good they can be once a toxic individual is removed from the equation with Russell Wilson now benched to ensure he does not get injured which would trigger a $37 million guarantee in his contract in March. Many of Wilson’s teammates consider him phony with his NDAs and past disclosures that he was celibate before marrying his supermodel wife (I’m not throwing shade about celibacy — but bragging about it begins to draw attention). It was only last week when Wilson proclaimed how happy he was to be running his Seattle offense again where he could take advantage of his legs. That, frankly, is a lie since he was very vocal about wanting to emulate the second half of his career like Drew Brees where he relied on his arm — it’s the entire foundation for him getting out of Seattle because they would not “let him cook.” These teammates saw Wilson sign his $242 million extension while gaining 20 pounds last year — that must have been Nathaniel Hackett’s fault too. Yep, I think the Broncos are going to step up their effort with Wilson exiled. Head coach Sean Payton likes Jarrett Stidham which is why he signed him as a free agent away from the Raiders. Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss by six points or less. Denver has not covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against AFC rivals. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (130) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-3) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 45-21 victory at Temple as a 13-point favorite on November 24th. Iowa State (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 42-35 upset win at Kansas State as a 10-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Tigers home field at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis hosts this game — and while I do not expect a rowdy afternoon crowd for this game, I find much of the home-field advantage in football coming from familiarity and lack of travel which the Tigers will enjoy for this contest. The Tigers won four of their five home games this season to extend their home winning streak since 2017 to 29-5 straight-up — and they have a 55-11 record at home in the last ten seasons. Furthermore, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Tigers have played four straight Overs after their final regular season game with the Owls flew Over the 64-point Total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is dealing with some missing players including two starters on the offensive line who are in the transfer portal. But junior quarterback Seth Henigan is playing after passing for 3519 yards with 28 touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He has his two favorite targets for this game in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee who combined for 1806 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Blake Watson is also playing in this game after rushing for 104 yards with 14 touchdowns. Memphis ranked tenth in the nation in Points-Per-Play on offense while generating 453.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 39.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones struggle against potent offensive teams as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who generate 450 or more YPG. To make matters worse, they will be without their star cornerback T.J. Tampa who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spreading in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State Matt Campbell usually gets the most out of his roster - but the overall athleticism on the roster remains a question that was only made worse by the gambling scandal that impacted the team early in the season. It is telling that the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Memphis-Iowa State ESPN Special with the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 69-45 victory as a 10-point favorite against TCU on November 24th. Arizona (9-3) has won six games in a row with their 59-23 victory at Arizona State as a 10.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has two new faces playing big roles with their offense since the victory against the Horned Frogs. Offensive coordinator Jeff Libby left the program to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State — so head coach Brent Venables tapped offensive analyst Seth Littrell as the new play-caller and offensive coordinator. Venables hired Littrell after he was let go as the North Texas head coach. He has previous experience as an offensive coordinator at Arizona, Indiana, and then North Carolina which got him the head coaching gig at North Texas. He runs an Air Raid offense as well — so there should be no drop-off. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal and will play at Oregon next season — so that opens the door for the Sooners to begin the Jackson Arnold era. The five-star freshman is considered a potential future first-round draft pick in the NFL. He completed 18 of 24 passes this season for 202 yards with an 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He is a threat with his legs as well with 78 rushing yards in his limited time on the field — and he thrives in operating within inside zone read rushing schemes. The Wildcats are vulnerable in this area — they allowed an Opponent Success Rate of 41% against inside zone rushing plays. If this was an early September game, Arnold would be given much respect — and after a few weeks of practice with the first team for bowl prep after being with the team all year, he should be ready to roll. Oklahoma has a long transfer and opt-out list — but the biggest losses are three starters on the offensive line. Arnold still has great weapons at his disposal in Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson, and Jalil Farooq. The defense got some great news when junior linebacker Danny Stutsman and junior safety Billy Bowman both announced they were returning for their senior seasons — and both are playing in this game. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in a victory as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. Additionally, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their surprising regular season in the Pac-12 where they upset Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 35 or more points in a victory over a Pac-12 rival. Arizona covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. Before beating the Sun Devils to conclude their regular season, they upset Utah by a 42-18 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last two contests. The offense improved when head coach Jedd Fisch turned to redshirt freshman Noah Fifita as his starting quarterback — but the underlying metrics do raise some concerns. He had seven “Big Time” throws but eight turnover-worthy plays despite only five interceptions. That negative ratio is worrisome — especially with the Sooners given a month of preparation time. Fifita has a low adjusted completion percentage of 34% on his 38 throws of 20 or more air yards. To compound matters, Arizona star left tackle Jordan Morgan opted out for this game leaving the blind side duties to sophomore Joseph Borjon who only was involved in 175 plays this season.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Rebels have allowed 477.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. Kansas held the Bearcats to just 111 passing yards in their final regular season game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing no more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Jayhawks generated 562 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game. The program has since lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. The offense also suffered a blow with starting left tackle Dominick Puni opting out for this game leaving them having to start a freshman to protect quarterback Jason Bean’s blind side. The Jayhawks rushed for 312 yards against Cincinnati — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after rushing for 300 or more yards in their last game. And while they rushed for 234 yards in their previous game against Kansas State, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after rushing for 225 or more yards in two straight games. The Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. 8* CFB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Rice (6-6) won their final two games of the season after a 24-21 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point favorite on November 25th. Texas State (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 52-44 upset win against South Alabama as a 6-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an important game for Rice after they won their final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. Winning this game would secure the Owls their first winning season in their six seasons under head coach Mike Bloomgren. They reached a bowl game last year despite a 5-7 record but lost 38-24 to Southern Mississippi in what was their first bowl game in eight seasons. Bloomgren is recruiting well — and this game offers an opportunity to showcase his program to a national audience and potential recruits. It is telling that he has no players opting out or entering the transfer portal. Sixth-year senior quarter J.T. Daniels did announce his retirement from college football due to medical reasons — but the offense is in good hands in redshirt freshman  A.J. Padgett who has 225 snaps under his belt after starting the last few games. Padgett completed 24 of 37 passes for 255 yards with three touchdowns and one interception against FAU. Padgett started in the Owls’ bowl game last year — and this start gives him a head start to claim the starting QB job next season. Rice usually builds off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while they outgained FAU by +194 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more Yards-Per-Game. They did not force a turnover in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last contest. Florida Atlantic did average 6.49 Yards-Per-Play against them — but Rice has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. Texas State will be playing in their first-ever bowl game in what has been a triumphant season under first-year head coach G.J. Kinne. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent. Texas State generated 479 total yards against the Jaguars in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats have a dynamic offense — but they are vulnerable against good passing teams as they rank 105th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Rice ranks 28th in Pass Success Rate. The Owls should be able to slow down the Texas State passing attack as well — they rank 35th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing on field turf which is the surface at Gerald Ford Stadium. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ESPN Special with the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Lamar Jackson has had great success in his career against teams from the NFC opponents — Baltimore has a 16-1 straight-up record in non-conference games with Jackson under center. The conventional wisdom is that teams unfamiliar with Jackson struggle to adapt to his unique skill set. Most teams do not have a player close to his talents who can come close to replicating his actions to practice against. The 49ers lack a speedy linebacker or safety who can effectively spy against him during the game. Furthermore, in Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top-five in total defense, the Ravens have won all five of those games while scoring more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. While that 16-1 straight-up record against the NFC does not take into account the point spread, it certainly is an intriguing number when Baltimore is an underdog. Jackson combines with an outstanding defense that leads the NFL in scoring defense and sacks. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore rushed for 251 yards against the Jaguars — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 road games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. San Francisco actually got outgained by -30 net yards last week against the Cardinals. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after giving up 6.0 or more YPP in two straight games. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. And while the 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 20* NFL Baltimore-San Francisco ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (481) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-6) has lost three games in a row after their 23-7 loss to Baltimore as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-7) has won three games in a row with their 34-20 upset victory at Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Jacksonville is expected to play this afternoon after clearing the concussion protocol yesterday and then getting through the pre-game drills on the field earlier this afternoon. Obviously, his presence on the field makes a big difference in backing the Jaguars as a road favorite as opposed to C.J. Beathard. Jacksonville was held scoreless in the first half last week in their loss to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their previous game. Now they go back on the road where they have played well by winning five of their six games. They are outgaining their home hosts by +28.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They are also outscoring the home teams by +6.8 Points-Per-Game while holding them to just 19.1 PPG. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Additionally, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 28 passes for 381 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in his spectacular effort against the Packers — but Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tampa Bay returns home where they are just 3-3 and scoring only 16.3 PPG. The Bucs are getting outscored by -0.7 PPG and outgained by -21.2 net YPG. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when they are the underdogs.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (469) minus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th. Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: A periodic reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and these are too many points for a home dog that will have something to prove now that their unpopular head coach is now gone. Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. We were on Las Vegas for that game — but now after that public embarrassment, expect one of the hardest efforts from this Los Angeles team now that the proverbial Wicked Witch of the West is finally dead. The coordinators' responsibilities remain basically in tact with outside linebackers coach Giff Smith being tapped as the interim head coach for the rest of the season. Like interim head coach Antonio Pierce with the Raiders, Smith is very popular in the locker room — I expect this group to play hard out of professional pride. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. As it is, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles has not covered the point spread in their last two games and they have covered the point spread only once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Look for the Chargers to attempt to run the ball more to protect their defense and ask less of backup quarterback Easton Stick (playing for Justin Herbert who is out the season) as they have not rushed for more than 92 yards in four straight games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for 100 or more yards in three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bills have not allowed more than 17 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last two games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a home game that finished Under the Total. Buffalo got their ground game going by rushing for 266 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after rushing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Much of the Bills’ success has been protecting the football as they have won the turnover battle in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Buffalo has not been dominant on the road this season where they have a 2-5 record. While they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +64.0 net Yards-Per-Game, they are outscoring their home hosts by just +1.9 PPG and outgaining them by +14.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: After a three-week gauntlet where they played at Philadelphia, at Kansas City, and then home at Dallas in a must-win game, don’t be surprised if the Bills exhale in this contest. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Buffalo-LA Chargers Peacock Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals outlasted the Vikings last week despite getting outgained by -46 net yards and allowing the Nick Mullens-led offense to gain 424 yards against them. Cincinnati has averaged 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after generating 375 or more YPG in their last three contests. Quarterback Jake Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati is also allowing their home hosts to average 380.8 YPG and 25.5 PPG. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC North rivals. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Furthermore, while the Steelers have not covered the point spread during their three-game losing streak, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. If there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG. But after gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured, Rudolph does have experience as he has ten career NFL starts under his belt — and he is trusted by Tomlin which is why he has remained with the franchise over his six-year career. The Steelers have a good opportunity to have success running the football given the season-ending injury to defensive tackle D.J. Reader who is one of the best run defenders in the league. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score 14 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh generated 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry for 153 rushing yards against the Bengals defense even with Reader patrolling the line of scrimmage in their 16-10 victory in Cincinnati on November 26th. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss by seven points or less. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh NBC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (454) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3  loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.

FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess.  That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                              

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-23 loss to Georgia as a 24-point underdog on November 25th. Central Florida (6-6) has won three of their last four games after their 27-13 victory against Houston as a 14-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was inconsistent this season — they upset Miami (FL) and North Carolina while playing Georgia close but got blown out by Clemson and Ole Miss while losing by double-digits to Bowling Green. This is an important game in the first full season under head coach Brent Key — so I look for a strong effort tonight. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their 4-4 record after Key took over as the interim head coach last season was a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? Key seems to have this program moving in the right direction. With former Texas A&M transfer Hunter King at quarterback, the Yellow Jackets finally found a consistent offensive identity in the aftermath of moving away from the Paul Johnson triple option era of the last decade that led to hiring Geoff Collins from Temple to attempt to oversee the transition to a pro-style offense. Georgia Tech generated 432.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 31.2 Points-Per-Game. King tossed 26 touchdown passes. The primary strength of the offense comes from their rushing attack which ranks 22nd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Offensive Line Yards. They have rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their last six contests. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Central Florida gained 476 total yards in their win against the Cougars — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Led by quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, the Knights enjoy a good balanced offense — but the Yellow Jackets should have success running the ball against them. Central Florida ranks 124th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 112th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. They allowed four Big 12 foes to rush for at least 200 yards against them including Kansas to rolled up 399 rushing yards against them. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The transfer portal and opt-out situation for this game are relatively minor and pretty balanced. UCF will miss four players who entered the transfer portal with the biggest loss being starting cornerback Corey Thornton. Georgia Tech will be without defensive end Kyle Kennard and cornerback Kenan Johnson who are in the transfer portal. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral field as an underdog — and the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite laying up to seven points. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans remains firmly in the NFC playoff race as they are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South while being in a multi-team tie for the second and third spots in the NFC wildcard race. The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans preceded their dominant victory against the Giants with a 28-6 victory against Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after winning their last two games by 14 or more points. The Saints have failed to rush for more than 97 yards in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight games. They go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG resulting in only 19.0 PPG — and they are outscoring these teams by +3.3 PPG and outgaining them by +47.6 net YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams are healthy again and feasting on subpar teams — but quarterback Matthew Stafford has lost all four of his starts this season against a top-ten scoring defense. And on the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald has not been as dominant — in his last four games, he has only eight tackles, one tackle for loss, and just 0.5 sacks. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not retain much home-field advantage in that market — they have failed to cover the point spread in 45 of their last 70 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The good news on the injury front for New Orleans is that wide receiver Chris Olave is “good to go” to take the field tonight after he missed last week’s game due to an ankle injury. The Saints have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the final four weeks of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens generated 449 yards of offense against the Rams' defense despite being without the injured tight end Matt Andrews. Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season — but now they go on the road where those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Jacksonville has only won two of their last four games — but they have amped things up on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 29.0 PPG since only managing a field goal in their loss to San Francisco back on November 12th. The Jaguars have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Jacksonville Jaguars (330) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (329).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6) has lost two straight games and three of their last four contests after their 21-18 upset loss to New England as a 5.5-point favorite back on December 7th. Indianapolis (7-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: I expected Pittsburgh to respond to their upset loss at home to Arizona with another flat effort at home as a favorite to a struggling Patriots team. The Steelers did not seem ready to play in that game on a short week despite playing at home in a prime time audience. They dug themselves a big hole by spotting New England a 21-3 lead midway through the second quarter. Usually, this team responds with good efforts after a bad performance under head coach Mike Tomlin — so that loss to the Patriots was out of character. But Pittsburgh has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by three points or less. The Steelers have only covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Despite their recent struggles, Pittsburgh is still outgaining their opponents by +65.0 net Yards-Per-game. While Mitchell Trubisky has been spotty in replacing the injured Kenny Pickett at quarterback, the Steelers' defense remains stout. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.0 total YPG resulting in only 18.3 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they have a 3-2 record due to their defense holding their home hosts to only 17.6 PPG. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog of up to three points. The Steelers should be able to get their ground game going with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against this Colts defense that allows 132 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has been pretty fortunate to remain in the AFC playoff hunt as they got outgained in yardage in four of their last five games despite winning four of those contests. The Colts have won five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. Winning close games has obscured that they are getting outscored and outgained in yardage for the season. Indy has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are only 2-4 this season. They are getting outscored by -2.3 net PPG at home while getting outgained in yardage. The Colts are allowing their guests to generate 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in the ground game and 380.3 total YPG resulting in 28.8 PPG. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is out with a thumb injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Indianapolis NFL Network Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (305) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won five games in a row after their 23-14 upset victory against Toledo as a 6.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Appalachian State (8-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 49-23 loss at Troy as a 5.5-point underdog in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) will be using sophomore Henry Hesson at quarterback this afternoon given Aveon Smith’s decision to enter the transfer portal. Smith had been the team’s starting quarterback since Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury. Frankly, while Smith was productive with his legs, he was not offering the RedHawks much offense in the passing game. Miami (OH) was always going to rely on the other two phases of the game. They are allowing only 16.2 Points-Per-Game this season while giving up just 326.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The RedHawks also have an outstanding special teams unit under head coach Chuck Martin. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Total was set in the 43.5 range against the Rockets in the MAC Championship Game — and they held Toledo to only 97 rushing yards on 29 carries. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Appalachian State may have trouble getting up for this game after getting blown out in their championship game. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. And while Appalachian State had covered the point spread in four straight contests before the loss to the Trojans, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers are down four players who entered the transfer portal since that game with the biggest loss being their top running back Nate Noel who gained 834 rushing yards this season. Appalachian State is not a good defensive team as they allow their opponents to generate 389.9 total YPG which results in 28.4 PPG after Troy generated 463 yards against them — and they allow 30.9 PPG when playing on the road. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favorite — and Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5-10 points. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their bowl games under Martin’s tenure. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: While both of these teams are dealing with a host of injuries, the internal cohesion of these two squads is quite different. For Las Vegas, the Wicked Witch of the West, Josh McDaniels, has already been fired — so the locker room is happy. The players like interim head coach Antonio Pierce — and the former New York Giants star linebacker remains a candidate to be named the head coach moving forward. The team has consistently played hard for him since he took over — and they have taken the field for him despite being on the injured list during the week. So while defensive end Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams are listed as questionable, I expect both to play. Crosby did not practice this week which is not unusual on a short week. Adams came down with an illness yesterday but he should be able to play through it 36 hours later. Crosby and Adams will be the best two players on the field if they play tonight — and that is a consideration I undervalued earlier this year when the Raiders hosted Green Bay. Superstars matter — especially in games between two mediocre teams. Running back Josh Jacobs' questionable status is more in doubt with a quad — but if he plays, Pierce says it will be the “Josh Jacobs Show” and we should be in great shape. Even if he doesn’t, home-field advantage should help pave the way for this team. Las Vegas has been solid at home with a 4-3 record along with a +2.0 net Points-Per-Game margin and a +6.7 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Raiders' defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to three points. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in their last game. The expectation is that Pierce will turn back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after not committing to a starter after the offense failed to score a point. As long as it is not Brian Hoyer, the Raiders offense should rebound with a better effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. The story of Los Angeles is much more dire. Their season is done after the season-ending right finger injury to quarterback Justin Herbert last week. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons. Head coach Brandon Staley will almost certainly be fired at the end of the season (although I thought he was a goner last year at this time). First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is also likely to be let go — if not, management would have elevated him to be the interim head coach to give him a test run as the potential next head coach. Given comments to the press like from veteran Austin Ekeler, the team does not particularly like Staley with his reckless fourth down decisions and failure to improve the defense. In hindsight, his resume from being the defensive coordinator during the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl run seems to be thanks to the presence of Aaron Donald. I’m skeptical regarding the kind of effort the Chargers’ players are going to provide tonight for their lame-duck coaches. Injuries leave the remaining talent thin. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. And on the other side of the ball, defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is out tonight with a sprained foot. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (132) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th. Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should be motivated to embrace the spoiler role at home against the Packers — and they will benefit from the extra week off to rest and prepare for their opportunity to play in front of a nationally televised audience. The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their victory against the Patriots came on the heels of a 12-point upset victory against Washington — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. After forcing six turnovers against the Commanders, the Giants posted a +2 net turnover margin against the Patriots with three takeaways — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. They stay at home for this one where they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Green Bay goes back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG. And while the Giants are allowing 136 rushing YPG, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams who are allowing 130 or more rushing YPG. Furthermore, while New York is getting outscored by -11.0 net PPG this season, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when favored. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (132) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th. Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the Dallas Super Bowl as they both host their arch-rivals and have the opportunity to post their first victory against a team with a winning record this season. Head coach Mike McCarthy missing time this week after an emergency appendectomy is not ideal — but the team had extra days to rest and prepare for this rematch from just last month so I don’t consider those circumstances substantial enough to change the play. The Cowboys' offense has been on another level since their bye week when McCarthy decided to be more aggressive in the passing game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has in his entire career — he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has stepped up as a dangerous second option to CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Left tackle Tyron Smith is playing at a very high level again. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The Cowboys' defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — but they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 30 or more points. The Cowboys stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 15 games going back to last season. They are generating 438.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 41.0 PPG this season — and they are outscoring their guests by +24.2 net PPG with their defense only allowing 15.8 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points. I don’t love fading a team that just got beat by 23 points — but this looks like a lull period for the Eagles who are in a terrible situational spot. Teams tend to struggle after playing the physical 49ers in the previous week — and this has been a  brutal stretch of games for Philadelphia having previously played Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. Philly surviving this stretch with a 3-2 mark was considered a very acceptable result before the season started — and they have already clinched that accomplishment even with a loss tonight. The Eagles have been getting by with smoke and mirrors as well — they have been outgained in yardage in five straight contests. Furthermore, their net point differential mark of +58 points is a historically low number — since 2008, that mark ranks 56 of the 58 NFL teams that had won at least ten games after Week 13. Philly’s linebackers have been a weak link — and the defense is not generating enough pass rush. Since Week Eight, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL with a sack rate of 4.4% — and their 10 sacks during that span that ranks 27th in the league. Their sack rate of 5.3% on third down this season ranks 30th in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 260 YPG — and they rank 31st in the league in touchdown passes allowed. In their last four games, they are allowing 29.0 PPG. The Eagles have not been resilient lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have only scored six and seven points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their blowout loss to the 49ers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Prescott thrives against divisional rivals — he has a 30-8 straight-up record in starts against the NFC East with 72 touchdown passes and only 20 interceptions while posting a Passer Rating of 101. Against the Eagles at home at A&T Stadium, Prescott has a 5-1 career record with 12 touchdown passes. In the their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th, Dallas got inside the Eagles’ territory in their final four possessions but only came away with nine points due to some unusual circumstances. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). THE SITUATION: Navy (5-6) looks to bounce back from their 59-14 loss at SMU as an 18.5-point underdog on November 25th. Army (5-6) comes off a 28-21 upset victory as a 1-point underdog against Coastal Carolina on November 18th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy got outgained by -224 net yards against the Mustangs two weeks ago — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in their last game. The Midshipmen only managed to generate 3.61 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after failing to generate more than 3.75 YPP in their last contest. And while SMU averaged 7.57 YPP in that game, Navy has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread 8 of their last 9 games after failing to average at least 3.25 YPP in their last game while allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP. Navy has a good run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Midshipmen have not allowed more than 118 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. In a game between two teams that average 46 and 48 rushing attempts per game respectively, the Midshipmen have the edge in run defense. Army ranks 93rd in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 116th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Army allowed the Chanticleers to generate 7.68 YPP in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games when playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points. Navy has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. New England (2-10) has lost five games in a row after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: In this ugly matchup being played on a short week, if there is one reliable element to this contest, it is how head coach Mike Tomlin gets his team to respond after a bad loss. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after an upset loss by double-digits. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss. And they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after playing a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. Pittsburgh did outgain the Cardinals by +35 net yards in the loss. They will have running back Najee Harris available for this game after being listed as questionable with a knee injury. And backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky should play better tonight with a few days of preparation as the starter for the injured Kenny Pickett. He was solid in relief on Sunday completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards while accounting for the lone touchdown with his pass to Dionte Johnson. Trubisky has a career 31-25 record as a starting quarterback. The Steelers' defense has been outstanding this season — after holding Arizona to just 282 total yards last week, they have held their last three opponents to just 254.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has held eight of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less. They face a woeful Patriots offense that has not scored more than seven points in three straight games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in 11 straight contests. New England has failed to score more than seven points five times this season. The offensive line has struggled. The wide receiver room lacks speed. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be the best playmaker on offense but he is out with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver Demario Douglas is also out. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and asking him to be the bell cow back on a short week is ambitious. Mac Jones deserved getting benched — but Bailey Zappe is not in a position to do much better. His decent numbers last season were helped by a soft slate of defenses he was fortunate to face. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He is averaging a mere 4.7 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has a QBR of 50.2. On the road, the Patriots are generating only 285.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.8 PPG. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog getting up to seven points. And while the Patriots have covered the point spread only once in their last nine contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to lose three games in a row despite not giving up more than 10 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the  Pittsburgh Steelers (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (473) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-3) has won two straight games after their 24-21 victory as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: A weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. The Jaguars have won 13 of their last 16 games going back to last season — but there is a perception in some ranks of what this team is (already) that does not match their underlying metrics. Don’t get me wrong: Jacksonville may someday win a Super Bowl with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. I just don’t think they are there yet. The Jaguars are only outgaining their opponents by +1.8 net Yards-Per-Game. They have a 3-0 record in games decided by seven points or less. They benefit from playing in a weak division (but that seems to be changing). Lawrence has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last four weeks. In their last three games, Jacksonville has scored only 20.3 PPG. And in their five games at home, they are generating just 303.6 total YPG which is resulting in only 20.0 PPG. The Jaguars are 6-0 on the road — but they have a 2-3 record at home while getting outscored by -4.4 PPG and getting outgained by -54.6 net YPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. They have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. And while they have gained 389 and 445 total yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after gaining 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Cincinnati is not going to make the playoffs since Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury — but this is a proud team that can play the role of the spoiler tonight. Jake Browning completed 19 of 26 passes last week but for only 227 yards — but wide receiver Tee Higgins returns to action tonight after missing the last three games due to injury. His presence will make a big difference since he is the target that can punish opposing defenses when they double-cover Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. In defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, I Trust — and the Cincy defense should travel tonight. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 56 road games during Weeks 10-13.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals should be competitive tonight — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road as an underdog and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (473) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-17 victory at Las Vegas as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (5-6) has won three of their last four games after their 29-22 upset win against Detroit as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory against an AFC West rival in their last game. They have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Chiefs' defense is outstanding as they are holding their opponents to 290.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 16.5 PPG. Look for head coach Andy Reid to get his ground game cranking up against a Packers defense that has allowed 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games which has resulted in 165 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset victory against an NFC North rival as an underdog getting six or more points. The Packers have pulled off two straight upset victories after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers at home two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three of their last four contests. Despite those triumphs, Green Bay is allowing their opponents to generate 394.0 total YPG in their last three games— and they are scoring only 23.7 PPG in their last three contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are generating just 325.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.2 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games — and the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (465) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (466). THE SITUATION: Houston (6-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 24-21 loss to Jacksonville as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (6-5) has won five games in a row after their 29-12 win against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Broncos are demonstrating the importance of winning the turnover battle as they enjoy a +13 net turnover margin during their five-game winning streak. They have committed only three turnovers over that span -- and it is not a coincidence that head coach Sean Payton has asked Russell Wilson to throw more than 29 passes only once in their last six games. Payton may be “letting Russ cook” but the portions are smaller. Denver is running the ball, shortening the game, and keeping their defense rested — and this recipe works if the game remains close. Winning the turnover battle is critical. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers — and it has become clear that Payton prefers his quarterback to not get into a pass duel with the opposing quarterback. The Broncos gained only 294 yards last week in their win over the Browns and rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Denver has won the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after posting a +1 net turnover margin in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are generating only 292.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home. Houston has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games are a loss by three points or less to an AFC South rival. The Texans have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Houston is dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball — and tight end Dalton Schultz is out for this game. But the good news is that wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable this week. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been a revelation by averaging 296. passing YPG with 19 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is Denver’s just fifth game on the road all season — so their stats are propped up by playing seven of their first 11 games on the road (and, apparently, we have to throw out the 70-20 loss at Miami). 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (465) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Louisville (10-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss to Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 24-15 win at Florida as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: I was looking to fade the Seminoles even before the season-ending injury to senior quarterback Jordan Travis. Junior Tate Rodemaker is a big drop in talent — but now his presence in this game is doubtful after he suffered a concussion in last week’s game. He was not great even against subpar Florida defense as he completed 12 of 25 passes for 134 yards. He is a game-time decision — and even if miraculously passes the strict concussion protocols, he has a big challenge tonight. If Rodemaker cannot go, then it is freshman Brock Glenn who will get the start. On the plus side, Glenn was a four-star recruit out of Tennessee who flipped his commitment from Ohio State back to Florida State after long being a target by the Seminoles. However, in my deep dive into the recruiting archives on his history, I am seeing comments such as “will need a year or two of development” before being ready to play at the Power Five level — so this is far from ideal for someone playing against high school players last year. He missed three weeks of practice time due to injury — and he only has four pass attempts in game action this season. He is a pro-style quarterback who will run the ball with his above-average athleticism — but he is not a speedster. He had a proclivity to throw interceptions in high school. Florida State already faces tons of pressure of needing to win this game to make the College Football Playoff. They enjoyed a soft schedule after getting by LSU early in the season — and that was a game where Travis carried them with his play-making against what we would learn was a bad Tigers defense. The Seminoles were very fortunate to beat Clemson who outgained them by +118 net yards. They also got outgained in yardage by Boston College and Miami (FL) but pulled out games decided by one-scoring possession with Travis at quarterback. Florida State only ran for 90 yards last week on 31 carries despite needing to rely on their running backs given the Travis injury — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. While Trey Benson has rushed for a lot of yards, the Seminoles rank 109th in Rushing Success Rate. The problem is their offensive line as they rank only 123rd in the nation in Line Yards. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning eight or more games in a row. Louisville has an excellent defense that holds their opponents to 317.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 20.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Cardinals' defense is balanced as they rank 17th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have a very good defensive line led by defensive end Ashton Gillotte that ranks fifth in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They have generated 30 sacks and 54 tackles for loss — and that will likely spell trouble for the freshman quarterback in his first collegiate start. On offense, the Cardinals are led by an experienced graduate student Jack Plummer who is five years of experience learning under head coach Jeff Brohm in operating his version of the Air Raid offense. Louisville ranks 18th in the nation in Success Rate on offense -- and they are balanced. They rank 20th in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 11th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Cardinals have the opportunity to redeem themselves by giving last week’s in-state rivalry game away against the Wildcats. They gave the ball away three times in the second half including two times inside their 40-yard line to gift Kentucky 10 points and blow their 10-point second-half lead. Louisville has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: If the play at quarterback will not make the difference in this game, the Cardinals have the edge in head coaches as well. Brohm’s teams have covered the point spread in 28 of their 45 games as an underdog going back to his six seasons at Purdue — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +17.0 or more PPG (Florida State: +22.0 PPG). Florida State head coach Mike Norvell’s teams have failed to cover the point spread against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in December. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (323) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (324) in the Big Ten Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 30-24 win against Ohio State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (10-2) has won four straight games after their 13-10 upset win at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan should continue their run tonight with a statement victory in the Big Ten Championship Game — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by seven points or less against a Big Ten rival. It is going to be difficult for the the anemic Hawkeyes offense to put up many points against this Wolverines defense that ranks number one in the nation by holding their opponents to just 10.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank second in the nation in Points Allowed per Possession. Since getting upset on the road to Iowa in 2016, Michigan has held the Hawkeyes to just 20 combined points in their last three meetings with a Kirk Ferentz team. Head coach Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline — and he is well aware that risky play-calling is what will give Iowa opportunities. The Hawkeyes once again have a great defense — but they have only forced two turnovers in their last five games. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in four straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory against a Big Ten rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. The Hawkeyes have only scored 16 combined points in their last two appearances in the Big 10 Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: While I don’t love laying more than three touchdowns, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 21.5 to 31.5 points. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 21.5 to 31 points. Michigan has scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 12 games — and Iowa has failed to score more than 15 points in five of their last six games. 8* CFB Michigan-Iowa Fox-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (323) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (316) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (315) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-1) has won ten straight games after their 29-16 win against UTSA as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. SMU (10-2) has won eight games in a row after their 59-14 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: The Mustangs suffered a big blow last week in the win against the Midshipmen with third-year sophomore quarterback Preston Stone suffering a season-ending broken leg. The former four-star quarterback ranked 32nd in the nation in Total QBR. It will be redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings in his absence who is not nearly as a touted recruit coming out of high school — and this will be his first collegiate start after throwing 24 passes this season mostly in mop-up duty. This is not a good spot for SMU which can struggle with consistency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a win at home by 17 or points. And while the Mustangs have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. And in their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those contests. Tulane has won 23 of their last 26 games under head coach Willie Fritz — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after winning eight or more of their last 10 games. The Green Wave have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a victory against a conference opponent. They have a future NFL quarterback under center in Michael Pratt who has thrown 48 touchdown passes the last two seasons with only nine interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane is scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home.  SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last  35 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tulane Green Wave (316) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (315). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won four games in a row after their 17-15 win at Ball State as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (11-1) won their 11th straight game last Friday in a 32-17 victory at Central Michigan as a 10-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) is the Group of Five version of the Iowa Hawkeyes under head coach Chuck Martin in his tenth season with the program. The RedHawks can struggle to score — they are a run-first team that will play at a slow pace to shorten the game. But their defense is excellent — they rank 15th in the nation in Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. They have held their last four opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those foes scoring more than 16 points. For the season, Miami (OH) is allowing just 323.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.3 PPG. The RedHawks special teams are outstanding as well — Connelly ranks them the best unit in the nation using his SP+ metrics. And this is a team that does not make many mistakes as they rank 11th in the nation in fewest penalty yards. They held the Rockets to just 318 total yards in their first meeting of the season on October 21st in a 21-17 loss as a home underdog getting 2-points. It was in that game that junior quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered his season-ending leg injury. Redshirt sophomore Aveon Smith stepped up in his absence to win the last four games of the season under center. He made nine starts last season for this team (after Gabbert went down with season-ending shoulder injury) including their 24-20 loss to UAB in the Bahamas Bowl — so he has plenty of experience. While Smith is capable with his arm, he offers Miami (OH) a rushing threat — the team is RPO-heavy with him at quarterback. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. And while they got outrushed by -228 net yards to the Cardinals last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrushed by -125 or more yards. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo may be due for an emotional letdown after their strong run through the regular season after an opening-week loss at Illinois. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after beating three straight MAC rivals. They did generate 6.28 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Chippewas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while Toledo has scored at least 31 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 road games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rockets' offense was propped up all season by a soft schedule consisting of mostly mediocre defenses. Their non-conference schedule was against Texas Southern, San Jose State, and the Fighting Illini. They only managed 318 total yards against the RedHawks in the first meeting between these two teams. Junior quarterback DeQaun Finn is prone to mistakes. While he threw 21 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions in the regular season, his “Big Time” throws dropped to just 17 — and he committed 14 turnover-worthy plays according to the metrics at Pro Football Focus. Toledo failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when listed as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in  8 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss of seven points or less. The underdog has won four of the last five Mid-American Conference Championship Games — and three of those dogs were getting more than 3.5 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon dominated the Beavers as they outgained them by +207 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row against a conference opponent. The Oregon defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG — and there are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Washington does not have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Pac-12 opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. 8* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (303) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a loss at home under head coach Pete Carroll. Their loss to the 49ers finished just above the 43-point total — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. The Seahawks only scored 16 points in their previous game on the road against the Los Angeles Rams when quarterback Geno Smith got knocked out of the game with an elbow injury to his throwing arm. Head coach Pete Carroll claimed it is a “night and day” difference between Smith in practice last week and now in preparation for this game. Seattle has covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Dallas is riding high now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a win by 28 or more points. Since their loss on the road against Philadelphia, they have won three straight games by 23 or more points— but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning three games in a row by 10 or more points. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 55 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: In Seattle’s last 43 games on the road when listed as an underdog in the 7.5-14-point range, they have covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (303) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago had a 98.2% win probability to beat the Lions with just 4:15 minutes left in the fourth quarter — but they then gave up two touchdowns in those final four minutes to blow that game. The bigger takeaway from that result is that this Bears team is better than their record. They have -3 net losses in their four games decided by one scoring possession. They are only getting outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game which is the type of mark for a 5-6 or even 6-5 team. They have played four games without starting quarterback Justin Fields — and the third-year pro is playing better after a slow start to the season. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Detroit last week. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. The defense is playing better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 284.0 total YPG and only 22.7 PPG. In their last three games, the Bears are outgaining their opponents by +49.3 net YPG despite relying on rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in two of those contests. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spreads as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after losing two of their last three games. Minnesota endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Broncos last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings have held their last two opponents to just 65 and 46 rushing yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not giving up more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games.  

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point home underdog on October 15th. Despite Fields suffering the hand injury that kept him out for a month in that game, the Bears still outgained the Vikings by a 275-220 margin in yards fueled by a rushing attack that gained 162 yards by averaging 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). THE SITUATION: California (5-6) has won two games in a row after their 27-15 victory at Stanford as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. UCLA (7-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 38-20 upset win at USC as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Cardinal last week by gaining 455 yards of offense while holding them to just 289 total yards. Now this team needs to win this game to become bowl eligible for head coach Justin Wilcox who may be coaching for his job. The Golden Bears have not allowed more than 125 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Their game with Stanford finished Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they were on a four-game losing streak before winning their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in November. And while the Bruins are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net Points-Per-Game, Cal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. UCLA is a prime suspect for an emotional letdown after their upset victory against the Trojans last week. They did get outgained by -33 net yards by USC last week but their 11-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown was the winning difference for them. The Bruins have nothing at stake for this game outside of Senior Night — but head coach Chip Kelly may still be on the hot seat given the whispers a few weeks ago. The Golden Bears are scoring 31.5 PPG — and UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams who are scoring 31.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points with Kelly as their head coach. California has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points including eight of those last ten situations. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle lost a tough one last week with Jason Myers missing a potential game-winning field goal as time expired against the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. He did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning kick. They will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury — but that opens the door for rookie Zach Charbonnet to demonstrate what he can do as the featured back after starring in college at Michigan and then UCLA. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle knows this 49ers team very well after playing them three times last season after losing to them in the playoffs on the road by a 41-23 score. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games under head coach Pete Carroll after losing their previous game on the road. San Francisco is healthy again on offense with wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams back from injury — but they suffered a big blow on the other side of the line of scrimmage last week after All-Pro safety Talanga Hufanga injured his knee which will keep him out the rest of the season. The 49ers go back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points including failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (110) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (109). Best of luck for us -- Frank.       

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia comes into this Super Bowl rematch with confidence and momentum. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory at home against an NFC East rival. The Philly defense has struggled lately after the Cowboys generated 6.25 Yards-Per-Play to gain 406 yards against them — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Washington generated 6.94 YPP for 472 yards against them in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing 375 or more yards in two straight contests and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after allowing their last two opponents to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They have also covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack — and that will help protect his defense. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average 32 or more minutes of Time of Possession on offense. The Chiefs only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. They scored all 21 of their points in the first half and almost blew their three-touchdown halftime lead. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a halftime lead of 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after leading by 21 or more points at halftime in their last contest. The Chiefs return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Andy Reid is great coming off the bye week — but that is a straight-up number that does not take the point spread into account. For the record, the Eagles have covered the point spread in their two regular season games off the bye week under Sirianni. More importantly, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 62-17 victory against Stanford as a 21.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (10-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-28 victory against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Huskies have been living dangerously since their triumphant victory against Oregon last month. Their last four victories have all been by ten points or less including a shaky 15-7 win against Arizona State. While the Washington offense is dynamic with Michael Penix, Jr. under center, their defense is below average. The Huskies rank 68th in the nation in Points Allowed per Opponent’s Scoring Opportunities inside their 40-yard line. They do not put pressure on the quarterback as they rank 131st in the nation in both sacks per drop back and run stuff rate. Opponents are converting on 42.2% of their third downs, the 102nd-worst mark in the FBS. They also rank 127th in the nation in Opponents Rush Success Rate Allowed — and that is a scary number when playing this Oregon State team. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Utes generated 6.70 Yards-Per-Play against them — and the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. Washington has scored at least 35 points in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after the first month of the season. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Beavers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. They outgained the Cardinal by +274 net yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more net yards. Oregon State is a physical team that can make things very difficult for the Huskies. They have a great offensive line that is healthy again with center Jake Levengood returning to action. Led by running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, the Beavers rank third in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Those two running backs are combining to average 152.1 rushing YPG. Oregon State also ranks 15th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness with D.J. Uiagalelei under center. He ranks 13th in the nation by averaging 10.9 air yards per pass — and he has 42 completions of 20 or more yards, ranking 10th in the nation. The Beavers rank 23rd in the nation in Points Allowed per Scoring Opportunity. Their defense will make things difficult on Penix — opposing quarterbacks are completing under 60% of their passes with just four touchdown passes and ten interceptions. In the last three seasons, Oregon State has given up only 14 touchdown passes while picking off 25 passes.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon State will be motivated to avenge a 24-21 loss at Washington as a 4.5-point underdog last season on November 4th. The Beavers get this rematch in Corvallis where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 18 games while beating the point spread number by at least 10 points in those contests. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). THE SITUATION: Houston (4-6) lost for the third time in their last four games in a 24-14 upset loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (7-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 45-3 upset loss at Central Florida on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston will have plenty of motivation on Senior Day this afternoon. They need to win the final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. They can also play the role of spoiler and ruin the Cowboys' Big 12 Championship Game aspirations. The Cougars have bounced back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bearcats outgained them by -129 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Houston has covered the point spread once in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a blowout loss by 35 or more points. It may be difficult for the Cowboys to pick themselves off the mat after such a deflating loss where they gave up a whopping 592 total yards of offense. The offense really struggled as well with senior quarterback Alex Bowman throwing three interceptions. That game was just the fourth time in the last three years that Oklahoma State did not score more than 14 points nor score more than three points in the first half (they were shut out in the first half last week). The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of those previous games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They could not get their ground game going against the Knights as they ran for just 52 yards on 25 carries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last contest. Now they stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -5.7 Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -71.7 net Yards-Per-Game given their defense surrendering 442.0 YPG to their home hosts. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-62 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should rebound with a strong effort after getting their winning streak on their home field by that plucky Texans team. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a loss by six points or less. The Cincinnati defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. While Houston generated 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury. Baltimore stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when favored.
 
FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging an upset loss including covering the point spread in their last four opportunities for revenge from an upset setback. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (311) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). THE SITUATION: Ohio (7-3) has won two of their last three games after their 20-10 win at Buffalo as a 9-point favorite last Tuesday. Central Michigan (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-28 loss at Western Michigan as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a conference opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how quickly could Kurtis Rourke regain the form that led him to winning the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season The fifth-year quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes with only four interceptions while posting an adjusted completion percentage of 78% before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the MAC Championship Game and the Arizona Bowl. Tim Albin is building a culture in his image in his third year as the Bobcats’ head coach — but they lost six of the 14 players on defense that played at least 300 snaps. After a dramatic improvement on defense in the second half of the season, their biggest weakness appears to be a defensive line that returns only one starter for their 4-3 look — and they replaced both safeties from a unit that ranked 117th in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Well, Rourke has been solid, if not spectacular so far this season. He ranks 21st in the nation with a 50% positive Expected Points Added rate per dropback. The Ohio defense has been outstanding as they rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Stuff Rate and 11th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point setback. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their disappointing 4-8 season last year was a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program. This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters returned on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. After ten games into this season, it looks like their success in 2021 was an aberration. Sophomore quarterback Jase Bauer ranks 107th of 146 qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback — and he ranks 109th in completion percentage. Central Michigan generates only 313.3 Yards-Per-Game on the road which results in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in conference action including losing the point spread in five of their last six games against MAC rivals — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against conference opponents. 8* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The best unit in this game is the New York defense which is almost single-handedly keeping them in the playoff hunt. The Jets have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets limited Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. After their embarrassing effort on national television on Monday, they should play better on, yet again, national television tonight. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by 21 or more points. And after the Giants only gained 194 yards against them two weeks ago, the Jets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. Las Vegas played their best game of the season last week as the locker room came together to celebrate that the Wicked Witch of the West, head coach Josh McDaniels, had been sacked. I am encouraged by the leadership qualities of interim head coach Antonio Pierce — but it is difficult for any football team to sustain high emotions for multiple weeks at a time. The Raiders have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games — but they have ten failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. The Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I have one nice thing to comment about Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson: he has thrown only one interception in his last six games this season. He may have a short leash if he struggles with the near-permanent Aaron Rodgers backup, Tim Boyle, waiting in the wings. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (263) minus the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-5) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 24-21 loss at Duke as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina State (6-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in a 20-6 win against Miami (FL) at home as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest lost to the Blue Devils despite outgaining them by +133 net yards in that game. Look for the Demon Deacons to respond this afternoon with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to an ACC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by seven points or less against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The biggest question I had for this team in the preseason deep dive was whether Wake Forest’s seven-game bowl streak was in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson. Only 11 starters returned from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Clawson is getting solid play out of fourth-year sophomore Mitch Griffis at quarterback — he completed 16 of 19 passes for 241 yards while adding 55 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in the losing effort against Duke. The Demon Deacons played what still remains a good Clemson team close earlier this season in a 17-12 loss. With four victories and games at Notre Dame and Syracuse on deck, this is likely the critical game to maintain Clawson’s bowl streak alive. NC State was riding high after following up their 24-17 upset win against Clemson as a 10-point underdog with their upset win against the Hurricanes. But then sophomore quarterback M.J. Morris surprised the coaching staff by retaining his year of eligibility by taking his redshirt option for the rest of the season. Now head coach Dave Doeren has to turn back to Brennan Armstrong who got benched at the end of September for Morris due to ineffective play. Expectations were high when Armstrong transferred in from Virginia to reunite with offensive coordinator Robert Anae who was his former OC with the Cavaliers. But Armstrong did not fit with Doeren’s more compact offensive philosophy than his successful 2021 campaign with Anae. He completed only 58.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average is a career-low. The Wolfpack appear primed for an emotional letdown under these circumstances — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Both of their upset wins were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row at home. Now they go back on the road where they are only scoring 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 road games when favored including five of their last seven games under those circumstances. NC State may have six wins but they have benefitted from a 3-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They have been outgained this season by -13.6 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has a 51-38-1 ATS record as an underdog under Clawson — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 48 games as an underdog following a loss with Clawson as their head coach. This is the Demon Deacons' last home game of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss at Louisville as a 9-point underdog last Saturday. Boston College (6-3) has won five games in a row with their 17-10 win at Syracuse as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 6-3 record, the Eagles are a home underdog in this game. While the betting public is on Boston College this afternoon, one look at their resume explains why they are getting the points. Five of their six wins have been by one scoring possession — and their victories are against a bevy of suspect teams like Army, Connecticut, Virginia, Holy Cross, an erratic Georgia Tech team, and the Orange. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win against an ACC rival. And while that game finished below the 47.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a game that finished Under the Total. The Eagles forced four Syracuse turnovers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing three or more turnovers in their last game. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether head coach Jeff Hafley learned the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. He is getting some wins now against lesser competition — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog getting up to three points. Virginia Tech had been playing better lately with the move to sophomore Kyron Drones at quarterback — they upset Pittsburgh and beat Wake Forest and Syracuse over a four-game stretch with their lone loss being at Florida State. But they were flat on the road against the Cardinals while gaining only 140 total yards. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points. And while they only generated 2.75 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after failing to average more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. Virginia Tech has lost both of their games decided by one scoring possession. They have outgained their opponents by +30.9 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when favored by seven points or less. 10* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS:  Al Michaels will be especially grumpy tonight that his “immense” talent is being wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage). These are not good football teams — but there is more reason for optimism with the Bears playing at home at Soldier Field tonight. They have some building blocks. D.J. Moore is the difference maker at wide receiver that the Panthers’ rookie quarterback Bryce Young really needs (of course, Moore was the necessary piece for Chicago to trade their number one pick to Carolina so they could draft Young). Tremaine Edmunds is a playmaker being asked to take the traditional Bears’ middle linebacker role heralded by Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary, and Brian Urlacher. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. And while running back Khalil Herbert is not likely to be activated off the injured list for tonight’s game, the Bears rushing attack is in good hands with the underappreciated veteran D’Onta Foreman who will have revenge on his mind tonight facing his former team. Foreman ran the ball 20 times of 83 yards last week against a good Saints’ defense — and now he returns home where he is generating 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. The Bears outgained New Orleans on the road last week by a 368 to 301 margin — but it was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance. Chicago has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 44 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up loss. The Panthers' offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Panthers go back on the road where they are winless in four games while getting outscored by -15.8 net Points-Per-Game. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a two-game home stand. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games on the road including failing to cover the point spread in all four of their games away from home this season. And while the Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Panthers are dealing with a bevy of injuries impacting what was already a suspect roster — most notably, their best defensive player Brian Burns is out with a concussion, safety Jeremy Chin is on injured reserve, and wide receiver D.J. Chark is doubtful.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago returns home where they are outgaining their opponents by +71.2 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after losing their last two games on the road. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with Chicago Bears (114) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). THE SITUATION: New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York is rounding into form with Zach Wilson under center with three straight victories and a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last four games after their push against the Giants. Despite all the criticism he receives, the Jets have a 9-7 straight-up record with Wilson as their starting quarterback. He has not thrown an interception in four of his last five games which puts his defense in a position to win games. The Jets have an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. My biggest question for the Chargers in my deep dive in the offseason was whether Brandon Staley is really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses. The Chargers rank 28th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN).

FINAL TAKE: On the road, Los Angeles is getting outscored by -4.3 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.3 net Yards-Per-Game due to their porous defense that is allowing 433.0 YPGG which is resulting in 27.3 PPG for their home hosts. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be the Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474).THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer — and the Bengals are the popular choice tonight for the betting public and experts that consider themselves “sharps” tonight. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Cincinnati looks great after their upset win against the Niners last week — but two items that contextualize that upset victory. First, San Francisco was less than full strength in that game missing Trent Williams, arguably the best left tackle in the world, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel who seems to be the critical piece for quarterback Brock Purdy to succeed in the passing game. Second, the 49ers still outgained the Bengals last week by +60 net yards after piling up 460 total yards against them (even without Williams and Samuel). And while that was just the third upset victory by double-digit by Cincinnati in the last three years, they have failed to cover the point spread all 3 times in their next contest. They return home where they are favored by three points or less for just the fourth time in three seasons — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. I think the bettors are neglecting to appreciate just how important this game is for the Bills given the emotions around the Damar Hamlin. Admittedly, Buffalo has been inconsistent this season — but while many decry their flat performances, there are two things I find encouraging about this team when it comes to big games like this. First, they are not trying to win the Super Bowl in September. I think the team was wound up way too tightly last year as if they could quickly resolve the anguish of losing that epic playoff game to Kansas City in the final 12 seconds two years ago. That sentiment was embodied by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s meltdown when the offense failed to execute on a fourth down play that cost them their game in Miami. Head coach Sean McDermott called out his team’s lack of intensity in the preseason — and they have been flat in a few games in the regular season. But after a highly emotional year, playing the long game is sensible. They will be up for this game. Second, while they were lethargic against the New York Giants for that prime-time game earlier this year, their ability to commit and then execute a four-minute and eight-minute offense by sticking with their running game is precisely the missing ingredient this team has lacked the last few seasons. Buffalo has not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight contests. Committing fewer turnovers would certainly help their cause — they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. The Bills have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after posting a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 48 of their last 77 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against those teams in the second half of the season. We were on the Bengals that Monday night game that got canceled — I think they were on the way to winning and covering as an underdog. Now the script has flipped with Buffalo the underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 24-20 win against Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won three games in a row after their 31-24 victory at Arizona as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens handled the Cardinals despite a sluggish effort where they got outgained by -42 net yards after their offense only managed 268 total yards of offense. Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Ravens have scored 69 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. Seattle has improved their defense by acquiring Leonard Williams from the New York Giants at the trade deadline. Head coach Pete Carroll also reunited with pass rusher Frank Clark who he drafted out of Michigan before he went on to win Super Bowls with Kansas City. He was an unsigned free agent this year. This Seahawks defense had already held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less. The Ravens average 143 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). THE SITUATION: USC (7-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 50-49 win at California as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (8-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 42-33 win at Stanford on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the victory last week, the embattled USC defense continued to struggle against the Golden Bears. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. And while they gave up 28 points in the first half to Cal, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. The problems with the USC defense are mostly against the run — but the Huskies are not likely to commit to running the football. They only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry last week against the Cardinal on 27 carries after rushing for a mere 13 yards on 13 carries in their previous game against Arizona State. Washington is being slowed down by issues with the interior of their offensive line — and USC does rush the passer as they rank 11th in the nation in Havoc Rate. The Trojans have talent in their secondary — and that is one of the reasons why they are holding opposing quarterbacks to completing just 61.2% of their passes. USC also ranks 21st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Washington has been sluggish in their last two games after their triumphant win against Oregon — they only beat Arizona State by a 15-8 score before getting outgained by -39 net yards to a struggling Cardinal team. While the head coach Lincoln Riley (rightly) gets criticized for the underperforming Trojans' defense, the Huskies' defense has been just as bad after watching Stanford generate 499 yards against them. The Huskies rank 125th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 115th in Havoc Rate while ranking 118th in Pressure Rate and 131st Sack Rate — and those are frightening numbers when now facing USC’s Caleb Williams who is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 63 or higher. In a game that looks like the last quarterback to have the ball wins, look for Williams to outduel Michael Penix, Jr. — and we get the added insurance of the three points for the home dog. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: Rice (4-4) lost for the second time in their last three games with their 30-28 loss to Tulane as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (6-2) is on a four-game winning streak with their 69-10 victory against Tulsa on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Rice almost rallied to beat the Green Wave last week despite getting outgained by -186 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Much of that yardage disparity can be explained by Rice’s offense only being on the field for 23:55 minutes in that game. They allowed Tulane to generate 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing their last opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. My biggest question for this team in my off-season deep dive was whether it was becoming now-or-never time for head coach Mike Bloomgren to lead his team to a winning record for the first time in his six seasons with the program. He inherited a 1-11 football team — and the Owls have improved in the win department in each season (outside the 2020 COVID year when they finished 2-3 on an abbreviated schedule). The five wins they won last year were the most since 2015 — and they did play in a bowl game for the first time in eight seasons despite a 5-7 record (they lost to Southern Mississippi in the Lending Tree Bowl). The former Stanford offensive coordinator is recruiting well — and he brought in former USC, Georgia, and West Virginia five-star recruit J.T. Daniels at quarterback. Fifteen starters are back from last year including four of the top five tacklers on defense. However, the move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference presents a more difficult strength of schedule. So far so good this season with their .500 record which includes a 2-2 mark in conference play. They are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 Points-Per-Game while also outgaining their opponents in yardage. Two of their losses have been by one scoring possession. Daniels has been steady under center — he is completing 63.6% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. SMU has outscored their last two opponents by a 124 to 10 point margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points. They outgained the Golden Hurricane by +391 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Mustangs have been very active in the transfer portal — but my main question for this program in the offseason was whether they taking one step forward for every two steps back in the portal. Second-year head coach Rhett Lashlee brought several players on both sides of the ball from Miami (FL) where he was previously the offensive coordinator. He has also brought in some defensive players from Liberty where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously served. But two-year starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai left the program for Wisconsin after making 24 starts in the last two seasons. This is a team that finished 7-6 in their first year under Lashlee — the worst record for this program in four seasons. While the Mustangs ranked 14th in the nation by generating 472.8 total YPG, they also ranked 111th by allowing 431.2 total YPG. Third-year sophomore Preston Stone takes over at quarterback as a former four-star recruit — but this could be a program moving in the wrong direction after Sonny Dykes left two years ago to become the head coach at TCU. Winning six of their first six games seems to be a solid endorsement of where this team is headed under Lashlee — but they are 4-0 at home but just 2-2 when playing on the road where their scoring drops by -12.0 PPG. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). THE SITUATION: Utah (6-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 35-6 loss at home to Oregon as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arizona State (2-6) ended their six-game losing streak with their 38-27 upset victory against Washington State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: The Utes should rebound under head coach Kyle Whittingham this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Utah defense has struggled the last two weeks by giving up 35 and 32 points against the powerful Ducks and USC offenses in the last two weeks. But they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games And while Oregon averaged 6.72 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Utes have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after allowing 6.25 or more YPP. Utah is still holding their guests to only 14.8 Points-Per-Game and just 277.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The Utes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 at home when favored. Furthermore, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or lower. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against a Pac-12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit upset victory. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Sun Devils outgained the Cougars by +106 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards.  

FINAL TAKE: While Utah has underachieved on offense as they deal with injuries on that side of the ball, they did score 34 points in their previous two games against California and USC before getting stymied against the Ducks. Now they face a porous Arizona State run defense that ranks 98th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 111th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). THE SITUATION: Clemson (4-4) has also two games in a row after their 24-17 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (7-2) has won three of their last four games after a 58-7 thrashing at home against Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight upset losses after getting upset at Miami (FL) the previous week. The Tigers did outgain the Wolfpack by +162 net yards as they held them to a mere 202 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin along with a 15-yard interception returned for a touchdown by NC State played a big role in that game. This has been the story of the Clemson season. In their four losses this season, they are outgaining their opponents by more than +300 net Yards-Per-Game but are holding themselves back with a -6 net turnover margin with ten lost fumbles in those contests. Failing to convert on five of their seven fourth-down chances in those games has not helped either. Head coach Dabo Swinney claimed earlier this week that his team would be 8-0 if not for them leading the nation in fumbles. Ranking in the bottom ten in the nation in Red Zone Scoring Percentage has not helped the cause either. But fumble luck as well as scoring in the Red Zone tends to regress over the long run. This remains a team that is outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and their +148.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark is a reliable assessment of how they should perform moving forward. Remember, this is a team that has lost twice in overtime and that only has a 1-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They outplayed and outgained Florida State by a 429 to 311 yardage margin before coaching decisions and late miscues and some Seminoles’ good fortunate combined to have the Tigers somehow give that game away in overtime. So while the critics can point to Clemson’s 7-7 record in their last 14 games, this remains a very talented group — especially on defense. The Tigers still possess an elite defense that ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 4.4 Yards-Per-Play. They rank sixth in the FBS by allowing only 267.5 total YPG — and they are 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The offense has struggled in the Red Zone under quarterback Cade Klubnik — and some of the shine is off new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who came over from TCU in the offseason. But the Tigers are still averaging 453.8 YPG at home which is generating 38.8 PPG. Running back Will Shipley is injured for this game — but that means more carries for second-year freshman Phil Mafah who is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry and +1.5 more yards after contact than Shipley. After playing their last two games on the road, Clemson returns home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 42.5-46 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Tigers have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Notre Dame goes on the road again after beating USC and the Panthers at home by 28 and 51 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home by 14 or more points. The Fighting Irish have forced five turnovers in two straight games — they have enjoyed +5 and +3 net turnover margins in their last two contest. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers as Notre Dame will remember in their upset loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over five times in their last trip on the road. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +3 or more net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two games in a row with a +3 or more net turnover margin. They lost their best receiver last week when their talented tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. That does not help a Fighting Irish team that has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against teams not allowing more than 285 YPG.                                    

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Clemson team under head coach Dabo Swinney is an underdog at home in Death Valley. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 home games getting more than three points in the Swinney era — and they are covering the point spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Swinney should have no problem getting his team up for this game since playing Notre Dame is always something special — and they will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in South Bend last season by a 35-14 score despite being a 4-point road favorite. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and I can certainly envision that the Lions come out tonight and blow the doors off a bad Las Vegas team as they take out their frustrations from getting embarrassed last week against Baltimore. But this Raiders team is feisty when Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy and under center. Like Jared Goff, he is a veteran who has played in the Super Bowl. He has one of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in Davante Adams. Las Vegas has one of the best pass rushers in the game in Maxx Crosby. The Raiders' defense has been playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 20.0 Points-Per-Game allowed. They held the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Chicago only passed for 150 yards in that game — and Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 150 yards in their last game. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. The Raiders have not rushed for at least 100 yards all season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four or more games in a row. Detroit dug themselves a big hole last week which required Goff to throw 53 passes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after a game where they had 50 or more pass attempts. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. The defense has lost cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson along with pass rusher James Houston — and they still have a long injury list that challenges their depth.

FINAL TAKE: Back to numbers, this remains a Detroit team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Dan Campbell and company would be very happy with a win by a touchdown or less. Expect a closer-than-expected game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a train wreck under head coach Brandon Staley who I was fully convinced was going to be let go last season so the organization could write a big check for Sean Payton to come in to steward the golden years of Justin Herbert in the league. And I will probably go on tilt sometime this evening when Staley claims “The Analytics” (always hidden from view to demonstrate what the numbers are actually saying, but never advanced without even the slightest of doubt) justify going for another 4th-and-one on the Chargers’ 20-yard line. But this play is in large part fading a rookie quarterback playing in his road game after never playing Division I college football. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 48 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Chargers have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average. Los Angeles has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing two or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 home games when favored in the 7.5-10-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (6-1) rebounded from their loss on the road at Wyoming with a 37-32 victory at Utah State as a 5.5-point favorite back on October 13th. UNLV (6-1) won their fifth game in a row with a 25-23 win against Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a victory against a conference rival by seven points or less including their last four games under those circumstances. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs return home where they are 3-0 with an average scoring margin of +21.3 net Points-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback Mikey Keene is questionable to play tonight with leg injuries — but head coach Jeff Tedford has a capable backup in junior Logan Fife who had four starts last season and also was the starter two weeks ago against the Aggies. In that game, Fife completed 22 of 39 yards for 291 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions while adding 21 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 home games under Tedford when favored by 7.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games under Tedford with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range. UNLV has been one of the surprises of the season with their six victories in seven games — but they are only outgaining their opponents by +20.9 net YPG. They have won both their games decided by one scoring possession. Outside of playing at the Big House against Michigan, the Rebels have played a light schedule with Vanderbilt being their only other Power Five Conference opponent and they had a game with Bryant out of the FCS. Their five games against UTEP, Vanderbilt, Hawai’i, Nevada, and Colorado Stare were against opponents all with losing records — and that collective record of those five opponents is 11-28. UNLV has won the turnover battle in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after posting a +1 or better turnover margin. The Rebels had covered the point spread in their first six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after covering four of their last five games. First-year head coach Barry Odom deserves credit for turning this team around so quickly — but his teams going back to his time with Missouri have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in that 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-5) has lost five games in a row after a 32-29 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-2) has won three games in a row with their 48-34 victory at West Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati outgained the Bears last week by a 450 to 396 margin in yards but a fumble recovery returned for a 15-yard touchdown was too much for them to overcome. That game was the second time during their losing streak that an opponent’s defensive touchdown played a big role in a game decided by one-scoring possession. The Bearcats are outscoring their opponents this season despite their losing record — and they are outgaining their opponents by +98.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Besides Baylor last week, they have also outgained BYU and Miami (OH) but found a way to lose the game. Cincinnati has not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing four or more games in a row. First-year head coach Scott Satterfield needs to turn things around — and the Bearcats should remain competitive in this one. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oklahoma State has pulled off three straight upset victories after last week’s victory against the Mountaineers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Oklahoma State returns home with their annual date with in-state rival Oklahoma coming up next week — so they may get caught looking ahead. They are getting outgained at home by -6.7 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been fortunate during their three-game upset run. These three favorites have failed to convert on seven of their eighth fourth down attempts which has often then given Oklahoma State a short field. The Cowboys also enjoy a +4 net turnover margin with seven takeaways in these three upset wins including a pick-six returned for a touchdown. Good luck never lasts — and as we discovered with North Texas’ second-half rally earlier today, even bad luck runs come to an end. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). THE SITUATION: Boise State (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-30 upset loss at Colorado State as a 7.5-point favorite back on October 14th. Wyoming (5-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 34-27 loss at Air Force as a 13-point underdog on October 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Boise State should rebound with the benefit of their bye week to regroup and get healthy. Head coach Andy Avalos expects their two-time 1000-yard rusher to return to action for the first time since their season opener — and their offensive line will be as healthy as it has been all season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games. Boise State has been snake bit this year with three of their losses determined by only six combined points. They have endured a -5 net turnover margin this season — and the Cowboys have enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin this year so the Regression Gods could take care of two birds with one stone with an appearance in this game (to mesh and mangle a pair of metaphors). Wyoming has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. They have lost both of their games on the road while getting outscored by -14.0 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -46.0 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games between Weeks Five and Nine — and Boise State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games between Weeks Five and Nine. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (186) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (185). THE SITUATION: North Texas (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-28 loss at Tulane as a 20-point underdog on Saturday. Memphis (5-2) has won two of their last three games after a 45-21 win at UAB as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas has outgained their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season — but three of their four losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They should be in store for another close game this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. North Texas has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Led by quarterback  Chandler Rogers, the Mean Green have an explosive offense. The junior is completing 65% of his passes and averaging 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception. The Mean Green sport a balanced offense that has rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their games while passing for 297 or more yards in five games. They have generated 475.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after averaging 475 or more YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected higher-scoring games where the Total is at 63 or higher. In their three games at home, they are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game. Memphis got outgained last week by -29 net yards despite beating UAB by 24 points — they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense that struggles to run the ball should help this short week. Buffalo still ranks as the fourth-best team in the league using the advanced DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss.
The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. They have only rushed for 46 and 74 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Injuries played a significant role in San Francisco’s loss to the Browns last week — and rookie Jake Moody missing a game-ending field goal resulted in the defeat. The Niners will be without wide receiver Deebo Samuel tonight but the reports this afternoon indicate that Christian McCaffrey will take the field tonight. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. This remains the best team in the NFL that leads the league with a +16.2 net Point Differential — and they rank number in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. On offense, they are scoring 30.7 PPG and rank second in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are holding their opponents to 14.5 PPG and 278.0 total YPG — and they rank fourth in Defensive DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics. They have allowed the fewest Big Plays (rushing gains of 10 or more yards and passing gains of 20 or more yards) in the league — and opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 67 against them. They have won the turnover battle in two straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against NFC opponents. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Bears last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings were a prime candidate for a letdown this season after going an incredible 11-0 in one-possession games last year. The Regression Gods have made their presence felt as all six of their games have been decided by eight points or less. Their only wins are against the lowly Carolina Panthers and Chicago. They have given the ball away 13 times in their six games — and the 49ers are the wrong team to offer up extra possessions. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Fading home underdogs on Monday Night Football can be dangerous — but we are talking about Kirk Cousins who has a career 2-10 straight-up record on MNF with 11 interceptions in those contests. Cousins also has a 13-41 straight-up record when playing against playoff teams (which the Niners will most likely be). Missing the injured wide receiver Justin Jefferson leaves the Vikings without their best player — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 49 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won two of their last three games with their 24-16 win against Tennessee in London as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 20-6 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore went into halftime with an 18-3 lead last week which was the third straight game where they went into halftime leading by at least a touchdown. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after leading at halftime by seven or more points in three straight games. And while they have played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. Baltimore is fourth in the NFL by allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +78.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Detroit stays on the road for a second straight week having covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 road games after winning two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Florida State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 41-3 win against Syracuse as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. Duke (5-1) rebounded from their touchdown loss at home to Notre Dame with a 24-3 win at home against North Carolina State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State tends to feed off their momentum in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win against ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by double-digits against a conference opponent. They dominated the Orange by outgaining them by +274 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 42 of their last 66 home games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more yards. The biggest question I had in my offseason deep dive with this team was whether the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell. They led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. The defense returned six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — and I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. Senior quarterback Jordan Travis is an intriguing NFL prospect. He was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he had only five interceptions with only 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. So far this season, Travis has 1482 passing yards with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception. He is leading an offense that ranks second in the nation in Explosiveness. While I remain uncertain if this team can win a College Football Playoff game, they are definitely trending upward with 12 straight victories going back to last season. In three home games, they are generating 514.3 total YPG which is resulting in 48.7 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +37.7 PPG. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by 21 or more points against an ACC foe. I am not surprised by the Blue Devils hot start to the season. In my preseason deep dive, I speculated that it might be too easy and misguided to disregard the Blue Devils simply because they thrived on a soft schedule last season. They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. This contest will be their third game against a team ranked in the top 11 in the country at the time. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again — and they only have a +3 net turnover margin hits season. But the key to this team is junior quarterback Riley Leonard — and he remains questionable with an ankle injury. Head coach Mile Elko lists him as day-to-day. If he cannot play, freshman Henry Belin IV will get the start once again after he completed just 4 of 12 passes for 107 yards as the starter last week. It will not be pretty if Belin IV is starting in the hostile environment of Doak Campbell Stadium in a nationally televised night game — especially since he does not appear ready to move the ball with his arm. Let’s assume Leonard plays — but one of the reasons he is an NFL prospect is because of his mobility. His bum ankle will likely limit his ability to be a running threat with RPOs or elude the Florida State pass rush. He is completing only 33.3% of his passes under pressure with just a 3.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average.

FINAL TAKE: This is Duke’s just second game on the road all season after they easily beat Connecticut last month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. The Blue Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Duke-Florida State ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (2-4) has lost two games in a row after their 41-37 upset loss to Florida as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Missouri (6-1) rebounded from their loss to LSU with a 38-21 upset win at Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina held a 37-27 midway through the fourth quarter against the Gators last week before surrendering two late touchdowns to give that game away. They should bounce back with a good effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to an SEC rival. The Gamecocks have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The biggest question I had for South Carolina in my preseason deep dive was whether they could continue the offensive momentum they established at the end of last season. They scored 132 combined points in their final three games which included upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson before a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Head coach Shane Beamer had the offensive playbook simplified late in the season which seems to have played a role in the increase in productivity. Six starters return on that side of the ball including senior quarterback Spencer Rattler who was brilliant down the stretch. The answer so far is mixed. After generating 378.8 total YPG last season, the Gamecocks are averaging 427.0 total YPG this year — but their scoring is down -3.2 PPG to 29.0 PPG. Rattler completed 23 of 30 passes for 313 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception in the losing effort last week. It is the defense that is letting Beamer’s team down as they are allowing 442.2 total YPG — and it is that side of the ball that has played a big role in their playing three straight Overs. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing three straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. The Tigers have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two Overs in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. My main question for this team in the offseason concerned whether this team will continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers had not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. So far, the results have been overwhelmingly positive with Mizzo pulling off upsets against Kansas State and Kentucky to win six of their first seven games. But they have also been fortunate to win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Rattler to keep the Gamecocks close in this one — the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a home favorite. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas probably had their best week of practice this week after their humiliating 32-point loss to the 49ers. The Cowboys have rebounded to win seven straight games after a loss under head coach Mike McCarthy — and quarterback Dak Prescott has won eight of his last nine games after a loss. Prescott also has a 21-11 record in prime-time games. Dallas has been consistent with good efforts after bad games when it comes to the point spread as well. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by double-digits. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They should play better on defense tonight after giving up 421 total yards last week. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 30 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles gets Austin Ekeler back at running back tonight after outrushing the Raiders by +79 net rushing yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more yards. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week. When handicapping the Chargers, it is hard to not factor in the coaching deficit they usually experience with Brandon Staley leading their team. He’s a lunatic with his decision-making — and his team has been fortunate to escape with the win at Minnesota two weeks ago. Staley was hired because of his work as the defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams — but his defense with the Chargers has been underwhelming. They rank 25th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Los Angeles special teams are bad as well — they rank 30th in the NFL using the DVOA numbers which I tend to believe is a function of the head coach. Remember the blown 27-point lead against Jacksonville in the playoffs last season? Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 45.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers do not have much of a home-field advantage in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium — especially with America’s Team coming to town. In expected close games, the brilliant but injured Herbert may not be able to overcome the missteps of his head coach. Don’t underestimate the motivation Dallas will have in facing their former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (it is Moore who is responsible for their two-minute offense that led to the embarrassing attempt to spike the football that ended their playoff run two years ago against San Francisco). I find it interesting that the books have the Cowboys favored tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the  Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London. New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Regulars will appreciate that I am reluctant to lay this many points in the NFL. Too many things can happen late in the game that spoil the favorite covering point spreads this high. But I do appreciate that these are basically 50-50% propositions. NFL favorites with a money-line price at -800 or higher (roughly laying 13.5 or more points) are 50-50-4 ATS since 2017. I like the Bills to lay it on early and often tonight after their disappointing effort in London last week. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. And in the last 4 occasions where they were playing at home laying more than 14 points, they covered the point spread in all 4 occasions. We have been on the wrong side of this New York team in prime-time games this season. I thought the skepticism regarding this team not being about the same as they were last season was too shortsighted. I think everyone understood that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Last year’s good fortunes did not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. But becoming a M*A*S*H unit certainly does. Even if the Giants had the potential to compete for a playoff spot again, their injury situation is making that impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. I just don’t see this as their turnaround game after losing their last three games by 15 or more points. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a loss by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in all five of their games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have not scored more than 16 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score 17 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams still — and the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when a double-digit underdog including in both their games this season where they lost to San Francisco and Miami by an average of 16.5 points (and by 15 points in both games). All three of Buffalo’s victories this season have been by 18 or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.