At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies generated 532 yards of offense last week against a Longhorns team that allowed only 17.5 Points-Per-Game and 322.5 total Yards-Per-Game at the time. But the Washington defense gave up 490 yards against Texas and almost blew the game in some anxious late moments. Head coach Kalen DeBoer will play tonight’s game aggressively — and he will ride on the talent of his quarterback Michael Penix. The Huskies survived another shootout in their 34-31 victory against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. Washington generated 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against the Longhorns — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Over the Total this season after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. One of the reasons why the Huskies offense is so successful is that they do not turn the ball over — they have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. Washington has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not committing more than one turnover in five or more games in a row. Michigan has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Their victory against Alabama last week came on the heels of their 26-0 victory against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 22-point favorite — and the Wolverines have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as the favorite — and Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 20* CFB Washington-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281) and in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Texas is riding high after their triumph in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after beating two or more conference rivals in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Quarterback Quinn Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 350 or more yards in their last contest. Longhorns’ safety Derek Williams, Jr. will miss the first half of this game after getting suspended during the Big 12 Championship Game for targeting — and that will leave a suspect Texas secondary even more vulnerable. The Longhorns rank 86th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. The Huskies generate 470.4 total Yards-Per-Game with 344 of those yards coming in the air. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against opponents generating 450 or more YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row against Pac-12 opponents. And while the Huskies have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than once in four or more games in a row. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies will have the better quarterback on the field in Michael Penix, Jr. who outdueled Bo Nix twice in their two showdowns with Oregon. The Huskies rank 6th in Passing Success Rate — and they rank 7th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate to keep defenses honest. Running back Dillon Johnson averages more than 3.0 Yards after contact. The Washington offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country — and this was a unit that protected Penix for just five pressures in his 55 dropbacks in the Alamo Bowl last season against Texas which the Huskies won by a 27-20 score. Washington leads the nation with a pressure-to-sack ratio of only 3.2%. Penix will have plenty of time to pick apart this vulnerable Longhorns pass defense. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Texas-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (282) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (281). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) and the Michigan Wolverines (280) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after beating an SEC rival in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row. Quarterback Jalen Milroe improved significantly after being reinserted into the starting lineup and first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his schemes to his skill set. Milroe profiles similarly Jalen Hurts as a mobile quarterback with a huge frame. He ran for 747 non-sack yards this season. He also has a big arm with 15 completions of 40 or more yards. The Crimson Tide ranked 6th in the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing game. Alabama generated 444.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 40.0 Points-Per-Game. Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Ten rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total on the road after a bye week. Their passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Michigan scored 37.8 Points-Per-Game in their six games played away from the Big House.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* CFB Alabama-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) and the Michigan Wolverines (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) had their four-game winning streak snapped in their 26-0 loss to Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Tennessee (8-4) ended their two-game losing streak in a 48-24 victory against Vanderbilt as a 27-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa is many bettor’s Kryptonite because of their anemic offense — and they are an even uglier underdog coming off a shutout loss to Michigan. But the Hawkeyes defense is one of the best in the nation — and they are balanced as they rank 12th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They held their opponents to only 274.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 13.2 Points-Per-Game. Iowa also has an elite special teams unit. The key to playing against a Kirk Ferentz-coached team is to not play aggressively since they feast on mistakes — but I am not sure that is in Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s DNA, especially in a bowl game with little at stake. Given that Heupel is turning to his blue-chip freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava in this game only compounds this potential problem for the Volunteers. Look for much of Iowa’s scoring coming from exploiting mistakes Tennessee makes in this game. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss including four of these last five circumstances. They have not allowed more than 264 yards in their last two games after the Wolverines only managed to gain 213 yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two or more games in a row. Admittedly, Iowa has not scored more than 15 points in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than 17 points in three or more games in a row. And while they have only averaged 234.4 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games for failing to average more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. The Hawkeyes' only significant player not playing in this game is wide receiver Diante Vines who entered the transfer portal. The Iowa offensive line is healthy again after the month off. Tennessee has had some defections that will be impactful. Quarterback Joe Milton has opted out of this game which is why Iamaleava is getting his shot. The Volunteers will also be without their top two running backs after Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small opted out of this game. Additionally, the Tennessee defense has taken some hits with defensive end Tyler Baron, safety Wesley Walker, and cornerback  Doneiko Slaughter heading the long list of players that entered the transfer portal. The Volunteers surrendered 376.6 YPG and 27.8 PPG in their five games away from home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. And while they outgained the Commodores by +311 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Ferentz has won ten bowl games in his long tenure at Iowa — and the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB New Year’s Day Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa Hawkeyes (275) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-3) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 45-21 victory at Temple as a 13-point favorite on November 24th. Iowa State (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 42-35 upset win at Kansas State as a 10-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Tigers home field at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis hosts this game — and while I do not expect a rowdy afternoon crowd for this game, I find much of the home-field advantage in football coming from familiarity and lack of travel which the Tigers will enjoy for this contest. The Tigers won four of their five home games this season to extend their home winning streak since 2017 to 29-5 straight-up — and they have a 55-11 record at home in the last ten seasons. Furthermore, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Tigers have played four straight Overs after their final regular season game with the Owls flew Over the 64-point Total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is dealing with some missing players including two starters on the offensive line who are in the transfer portal. But junior quarterback Seth Henigan is playing after passing for 3519 yards with 28 touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He has his two favorite targets for this game in Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee who combined for 1806 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Blake Watson is also playing in this game after rushing for 104 yards with 14 touchdowns. Memphis ranked tenth in the nation in Points-Per-Play on offense while generating 453.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 39.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cyclones struggle against potent offensive teams as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against opponents who generate 450 or more YPG. To make matters worse, they will be without their star cornerback T.J. Tampa who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spreading in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State Matt Campbell usually gets the most out of his roster - but the overall athleticism on the roster remains a question that was only made worse by the gambling scandal that impacted the team early in the season. It is telling that the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* CFB Memphis-Iowa State ESPN Special with the Memphis Tigers (261) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (262). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 69-45 victory as a 10-point favorite against TCU on November 24th. Arizona (9-3) has won six games in a row with their 59-23 victory at Arizona State as a 10.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma has two new faces playing big roles with their offense since the victory against the Horned Frogs. Offensive coordinator Jeff Libby left the program to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State — so head coach Brent Venables tapped offensive analyst Seth Littrell as the new play-caller and offensive coordinator. Venables hired Littrell after he was let go as the North Texas head coach. He has previous experience as an offensive coordinator at Arizona, Indiana, and then North Carolina which got him the head coaching gig at North Texas. He runs an Air Raid offense as well — so there should be no drop-off. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel entered the transfer portal and will play at Oregon next season — so that opens the door for the Sooners to begin the Jackson Arnold era. The five-star freshman is considered a potential future first-round draft pick in the NFL. He completed 18 of 24 passes this season for 202 yards with an 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt average with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He is a threat with his legs as well with 78 rushing yards in his limited time on the field — and he thrives in operating within inside zone read rushing schemes. The Wildcats are vulnerable in this area — they allowed an Opponent Success Rate of 41% against inside zone rushing plays. If this was an early September game, Arnold would be given much respect — and after a few weeks of practice with the first team for bowl prep after being with the team all year, he should be ready to roll. Oklahoma has a long transfer and opt-out list — but the biggest losses are three starters on the offensive line. Arnold still has great weapons at his disposal in Drake Stoops, Nic Anderson, and Jalil Farooq. The defense got some great news when junior linebacker Danny Stutsman and junior safety Billy Bowman both announced they were returning for their senior seasons — and both are playing in this game. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in a victory as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. Additionally, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their surprising regular season in the Pac-12 where they upset Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring 35 or more points in a victory over a Pac-12 rival. Arizona covered the point spread in ten of their twelve games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. Before beating the Sun Devils to conclude their regular season, they upset Utah by a 42-18 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games on the road after scoring 37 or more points in their last two contests. The offense improved when head coach Jedd Fisch turned to redshirt freshman Noah Fifita as his starting quarterback — but the underlying metrics do raise some concerns. He had seven “Big Time” throws but eight turnover-worthy plays despite only five interceptions. That negative ratio is worrisome — especially with the Sooners given a month of preparation time. Fifita has a low adjusted completion percentage of 34% on his 38 throws of 20 or more air yards. To compound matters, Arizona star left tackle Jordan Morgan opted out for this game leaving the blind side duties to sophomore Joseph Borjon who only was involved in 175 plays this season.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma Sooners (256) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Rebels have allowed 477.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. Kansas held the Bearcats to just 111 passing yards in their final regular season game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing no more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Jayhawks generated 562 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game. The program has since lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. The offense also suffered a blow with starting left tackle Dominick Puni opting out for this game leaving them having to start a freshman to protect quarterback Jason Bean’s blind side. The Jayhawks rushed for 312 yards against Cincinnati — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after rushing for 300 or more yards in their last game. And while they rushed for 234 yards in their previous game against Kansas State, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after rushing for 225 or more yards in two straight games. The Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. 8* CFB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the UNLV Rebels (240) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in  28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Rice (6-6) won their final two games of the season after a 24-21 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point favorite on November 25th. Texas State (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 52-44 upset win against South Alabama as a 6-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at the Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an important game for Rice after they won their final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. Winning this game would secure the Owls their first winning season in their six seasons under head coach Mike Bloomgren. They reached a bowl game last year despite a 5-7 record but lost 38-24 to Southern Mississippi in what was their first bowl game in eight seasons. Bloomgren is recruiting well — and this game offers an opportunity to showcase his program to a national audience and potential recruits. It is telling that he has no players opting out or entering the transfer portal. Sixth-year senior quarter J.T. Daniels did announce his retirement from college football due to medical reasons — but the offense is in good hands in redshirt freshman  A.J. Padgett who has 225 snaps under his belt after starting the last few games. Padgett completed 24 of 37 passes for 255 yards with three touchdowns and one interception against FAU. Padgett started in the Owls’ bowl game last year — and this start gives him a head start to claim the starting QB job next season. Rice usually builds off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while they outgained FAU by +194 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more Yards-Per-Game. They did not force a turnover in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last contest. Florida Atlantic did average 6.49 Yards-Per-Play against them — but Rice has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. Texas State will be playing in their first-ever bowl game in what has been a triumphant season under first-year head coach G.J. Kinne. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent. Texas State generated 479 total yards against the Jaguars in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game. The Bobcats have a dynamic offense — but they are vulnerable against good passing teams as they rank 105th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Rice ranks 28th in Pass Success Rate. The Owls should be able to slow down the Texas State passing attack as well — they rank 35th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing on field turf which is the surface at Gerald Ford Stadium. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ESPN Special with the Rice Owls (238) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3  loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.

FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess.  That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                              

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-23 loss to Georgia as a 24-point underdog on November 25th. Central Florida (6-6) has won three of their last four games after their 27-13 victory against Houston as a 14-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech was inconsistent this season — they upset Miami (FL) and North Carolina while playing Georgia close but got blown out by Clemson and Ole Miss while losing by double-digits to Bowling Green. This is an important game in the first full season under head coach Brent Key — so I look for a strong effort tonight. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their 4-4 record after Key took over as the interim head coach last season was a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? Key seems to have this program moving in the right direction. With former Texas A&M transfer Hunter King at quarterback, the Yellow Jackets finally found a consistent offensive identity in the aftermath of moving away from the Paul Johnson triple option era of the last decade that led to hiring Geoff Collins from Temple to attempt to oversee the transition to a pro-style offense. Georgia Tech generated 432.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 31.2 Points-Per-Game. King tossed 26 touchdown passes. The primary strength of the offense comes from their rushing attack which ranks 22nd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Offensive Line Yards. They have rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their last six contests. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Central Florida gained 476 total yards in their win against the Cougars — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Led by quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, the Knights enjoy a good balanced offense — but the Yellow Jackets should have success running the ball against them. Central Florida ranks 124th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 112th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. They allowed four Big 12 foes to rush for at least 200 yards against them including Kansas to rolled up 399 rushing yards against them. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The transfer portal and opt-out situation for this game are relatively minor and pretty balanced. UCF will miss four players who entered the transfer portal with the biggest loss being starting cornerback Corey Thornton. Georgia Tech will be without defensive end Kyle Kennard and cornerback Kenan Johnson who are in the transfer portal. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral field as an underdog — and the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite laying up to seven points. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (220) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won five games in a row after their 23-14 upset victory against Toledo as a 6.5-point underdog in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Appalachian State (8-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 49-23 loss at Troy as a 5.5-point underdog in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) will be using sophomore Henry Hesson at quarterback this afternoon given Aveon Smith’s decision to enter the transfer portal. Smith had been the team’s starting quarterback since Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury. Frankly, while Smith was productive with his legs, he was not offering the RedHawks much offense in the passing game. Miami (OH) was always going to rely on the other two phases of the game. They are allowing only 16.2 Points-Per-Game this season while giving up just 326.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The RedHawks also have an outstanding special teams unit under head coach Chuck Martin. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Total was set in the 43.5 range against the Rockets in the MAC Championship Game — and they held Toledo to only 97 rushing yards on 29 carries. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Appalachian State may have trouble getting up for this game after getting blown out in their championship game. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. And while Appalachian State had covered the point spread in four straight contests before the loss to the Trojans, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers are down four players who entered the transfer portal since that game with the biggest loss being their top running back Nate Noel who gained 834 rushing yards this season. Appalachian State is not a good defensive team as they allow their opponents to generate 389.9 total YPG which results in 28.4 PPG after Troy generated 463 yards against them — and they allow 30.9 PPG when playing on the road. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favorite — and Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5-10 points. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in all 4 of their bowl games under Martin’s tenure. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (205) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). THE SITUATION: Navy (5-6) looks to bounce back from their 59-14 loss at SMU as an 18.5-point underdog on November 25th. Army (5-6) comes off a 28-21 upset victory as a 1-point underdog against Coastal Carolina on November 18th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Navy got outgained by -224 net yards against the Mustangs two weeks ago — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in their last game. The Midshipmen only managed to generate 3.61 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after failing to generate more than 3.75 YPP in their last contest. And while SMU averaged 7.57 YPP in that game, Navy has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.25 or more YPP. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread 8 of their last 9 games after failing to average at least 3.25 YPP in their last game while allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP. Navy has a good run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Midshipmen have not allowed more than 118 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. In a game between two teams that average 46 and 48 rushing attempts per game respectively, the Midshipmen have the edge in run defense. Army ranks 93rd in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 116th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Army allowed the Chanticleers to generate 7.68 YPP in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their previous opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 65 games when playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field when favored by up to seven points. Navy has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Navy Midshipmen (104) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Louisville (10-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss to Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 24-15 win at Florida as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: I was looking to fade the Seminoles even before the season-ending injury to senior quarterback Jordan Travis. Junior Tate Rodemaker is a big drop in talent — but now his presence in this game is doubtful after he suffered a concussion in last week’s game. He was not great even against subpar Florida defense as he completed 12 of 25 passes for 134 yards. He is a game-time decision — and even if miraculously passes the strict concussion protocols, he has a big challenge tonight. If Rodemaker cannot go, then it is freshman Brock Glenn who will get the start. On the plus side, Glenn was a four-star recruit out of Tennessee who flipped his commitment from Ohio State back to Florida State after long being a target by the Seminoles. However, in my deep dive into the recruiting archives on his history, I am seeing comments such as “will need a year or two of development” before being ready to play at the Power Five level — so this is far from ideal for someone playing against high school players last year. He missed three weeks of practice time due to injury — and he only has four pass attempts in game action this season. He is a pro-style quarterback who will run the ball with his above-average athleticism — but he is not a speedster. He had a proclivity to throw interceptions in high school. Florida State already faces tons of pressure of needing to win this game to make the College Football Playoff. They enjoyed a soft schedule after getting by LSU early in the season — and that was a game where Travis carried them with his play-making against what we would learn was a bad Tigers defense. The Seminoles were very fortunate to beat Clemson who outgained them by +118 net yards. They also got outgained in yardage by Boston College and Miami (FL) but pulled out games decided by one-scoring possession with Travis at quarterback. Florida State only ran for 90 yards last week on 31 carries despite needing to rely on their running backs given the Travis injury — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. While Trey Benson has rushed for a lot of yards, the Seminoles rank 109th in Rushing Success Rate. The problem is their offensive line as they rank only 123rd in the nation in Line Yards. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning eight or more games in a row. Louisville has an excellent defense that holds their opponents to 317.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 20.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Cardinals' defense is balanced as they rank 17th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have a very good defensive line led by defensive end Ashton Gillotte that ranks fifth in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They have generated 30 sacks and 54 tackles for loss — and that will likely spell trouble for the freshman quarterback in his first collegiate start. On offense, the Cardinals are led by an experienced graduate student Jack Plummer who is five years of experience learning under head coach Jeff Brohm in operating his version of the Air Raid offense. Louisville ranks 18th in the nation in Success Rate on offense -- and they are balanced. They rank 20th in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 11th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Cardinals have the opportunity to redeem themselves by giving last week’s in-state rivalry game away against the Wildcats. They gave the ball away three times in the second half including two times inside their 40-yard line to gift Kentucky 10 points and blow their 10-point second-half lead. Louisville has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: If the play at quarterback will not make the difference in this game, the Cardinals have the edge in head coaches as well. Brohm’s teams have covered the point spread in 28 of their 45 games as an underdog going back to his six seasons at Purdue — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +17.0 or more PPG (Florida State: +22.0 PPG). Florida State head coach Mike Norvell’s teams have failed to cover the point spread against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in December. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (323) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (324) in the Big Ten Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 30-24 win against Ohio State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (10-2) has won four straight games after their 13-10 upset win at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan should continue their run tonight with a statement victory in the Big Ten Championship Game — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by seven points or less against a Big Ten rival. It is going to be difficult for the the anemic Hawkeyes offense to put up many points against this Wolverines defense that ranks number one in the nation by holding their opponents to just 10.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank second in the nation in Points Allowed per Possession. Since getting upset on the road to Iowa in 2016, Michigan has held the Hawkeyes to just 20 combined points in their last three meetings with a Kirk Ferentz team. Head coach Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline — and he is well aware that risky play-calling is what will give Iowa opportunities. The Hawkeyes once again have a great defense — but they have only forced two turnovers in their last five games. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not forcing more than one turnover in four straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory against a Big Ten rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. The Hawkeyes have only scored 16 combined points in their last two appearances in the Big 10 Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: While I don’t love laying more than three touchdowns, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 21.5 to 31.5 points. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 21.5 to 31 points. Michigan has scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 12 games — and Iowa has failed to score more than 15 points in five of their last six games. 8* CFB Michigan-Iowa Fox-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (323) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (316) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (315) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (11-1) has won ten straight games after their 29-16 win against UTSA as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. SMU (10-2) has won eight games in a row after their 59-14 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: The Mustangs suffered a big blow last week in the win against the Midshipmen with third-year sophomore quarterback Preston Stone suffering a season-ending broken leg. The former four-star quarterback ranked 32nd in the nation in Total QBR. It will be redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings in his absence who is not nearly as a touted recruit coming out of high school — and this will be his first collegiate start after throwing 24 passes this season mostly in mop-up duty. This is not a good spot for SMU which can struggle with consistency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after a straight-up win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a win at home by 17 or points. And while the Mustangs have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. And in their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those contests. Tulane has won 23 of their last 26 games under head coach Willie Fritz — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after winning eight or more of their last 10 games. The Green Wave have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a victory against a conference opponent. They have a future NFL quarterback under center in Michael Pratt who has thrown 48 touchdown passes the last two seasons with only nine interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane is scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home.  SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last  35 road games as an underdog of up to seven points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tulane Green Wave (316) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (315). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318) in the SEC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-0) has won 29 straight games after their 31-23 victory against Georgia Tech as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (11-1) has won ten straight games after a 27-24 win at Auburn on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This Bulldogs team is not quite as stout as it has been the previous two seasons. Being a feeder to the NFL has eventually taken its toll on this unit, especially up front. Georgia only ranks 81st in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Now they face Jalen Milroe who has a body type like another former Crimson Tide quarterback — Jalen Hurts. Milroe is averaging 7.24 Yards-Per-Carry (excluding sacks). The Bulldogs have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last nine games after the Yellow Jackets put up 23 points on the scoreboard. Georgia has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread including five of those six circumstances this season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. And in their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. But while their defensive front is not quite as dominant this season, the Georgia offensive line is stacked with at least four future NFLers in that group. The Bulldogs have allowed only ten quarterback sacks all season — and quarterback Carson Beck has been outstanding when given time in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Beck has completed 75% of his passes for 3189 passing yards with 17 touchdown passes. Georgia ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate — and they should be able to run the ball against an Alabama front that is not as stout either from past seasons as they rank 63rd in the nation in Line Yards Allowed. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Alabama has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in conference play. Since returning to the field after getting benched early in the season, Milroe has 26 touchdowns and only five turnovers. He has a big arm — and he ranks fourth in the nation by averaging 21.2 yards per pass attempt of at least 20 air yards. The Crimson Tide generated 451 total yards last week against the Tigers — including that miracle fourth-and-31-yard conversion to win the game. Alabama is going to be feisty in this game. The Crimson Tide has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win against an SEC rival. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They had scored at least 34 points in four straight games before only scoring 27 points last week in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has won 16 straight games played in Atlanta — so they are not going to back down to the reigning two-time National Champions. Despite their mutual reputations for defense, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings against each other Over the Total — and the last three SEC Championship Games have finished Over the Total. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won four games in a row after their 17-15 win at Ball State as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (11-1) won their 11th straight game last Friday in a 32-17 victory at Central Michigan as a 10-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) is the Group of Five version of the Iowa Hawkeyes under head coach Chuck Martin in his tenth season with the program. The RedHawks can struggle to score — they are a run-first team that will play at a slow pace to shorten the game. But their defense is excellent — they rank 15th in the nation in Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. They have held their last four opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those foes scoring more than 16 points. For the season, Miami (OH) is allowing just 323.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.3 PPG. The RedHawks special teams are outstanding as well — Connelly ranks them the best unit in the nation using his SP+ metrics. And this is a team that does not make many mistakes as they rank 11th in the nation in fewest penalty yards. They held the Rockets to just 318 total yards in their first meeting of the season on October 21st in a 21-17 loss as a home underdog getting 2-points. It was in that game that junior quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered his season-ending leg injury. Redshirt sophomore Aveon Smith stepped up in his absence to win the last four games of the season under center. He made nine starts last season for this team (after Gabbert went down with season-ending shoulder injury) including their 24-20 loss to UAB in the Bahamas Bowl — so he has plenty of experience. While Smith is capable with his arm, he offers Miami (OH) a rushing threat — the team is RPO-heavy with him at quarterback. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. And while they got outrushed by -228 net yards to the Cardinals last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrushed by -125 or more yards. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo may be due for an emotional letdown after their strong run through the regular season after an opening-week loss at Illinois. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after beating three straight MAC rivals. They did generate 6.28 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Chippewas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while Toledo has scored at least 31 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 road games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rockets' offense was propped up all season by a soft schedule consisting of mostly mediocre defenses. Their non-conference schedule was against Texas Southern, San Jose State, and the Fighting Illini. They only managed 318 total yards against the RedHawks in the first meeting between these two teams. Junior quarterback DeQaun Finn is prone to mistakes. While he threw 21 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions in the regular season, his “Big Time” throws dropped to just 17 — and he committed 14 turnover-worthy plays according to the metrics at Pro Football Focus. Toledo failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when listed as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in  8 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss of seven points or less. The underdog has won four of the last five Mid-American Conference Championship Games — and three of those dogs were getting more than 3.5 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (305) and the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-60s for this rematch from the Huskies’ 36-33 victory at home in that shootout on October 14th — but look for this to be a lower-scoring game this time around. Washington only gained 306 total yards last week their narrow win against the Huskies in the Apple Cup. There are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Head coach Karen DeBoer has leaned more on his rushing attack — perhaps to take some pressure on the defense that is not a great unit against the run. After running the ball only 23 times against the Ducks (37.0% of their offensive snaps), they then ran the ball just 15 times the next week (23.0% of their offensive snaps) against Arizona State in that narrow 15-7 win. It was then that things began to change. In their 42-33 win against Stanford, they ran the ball 27 times representing 40.9% of their offensive snaps. The big change came when the Huskies played the powerful USC offense the next week. Washington ran the ball 40 times representing 57.1% of their offensive snaps — and they have continued to run the ball closer to the 50% of the time ever since. On the season, the Huskies run the ball on 41.7% of their snaps. Since the Arizona State game, they have run the ball in 46.2% of their snaps — and they have run the ball in 47.3% of their snaps since the USC game which I suspect will be their template for success in this contest. Running the ball will keep Bo Nix off the field while resting the Washington defense. The Huskies have played  5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Pac-12 rival. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 10 games after beating a conference rival by seven points or less, they have played 8 of those games Under the Total. Washington has not rushed for more than 125 yards in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 125 yards in two or more games in a row. The Huskies do have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits against a conference opponent. Oregon dominated their in-state rival Beavers — they generated 28 first downs while controlling the Time of Possession for 34:03 minutes. The Ducks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they were on offense for 34 or more minutes while generating 34 or more first downs. Oregon’s defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon dominated the Beavers as they outgained them by +207 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row against a conference opponent. The Oregon defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG — and there are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Washington does not have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Pac-12 opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. 8* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th.  25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). THE SITUATION: California (5-6) has won two games in a row after their 27-15 victory at Stanford as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. UCLA (7-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 38-20 upset win at USC as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Cardinal last week by gaining 455 yards of offense while holding them to just 289 total yards. Now this team needs to win this game to become bowl eligible for head coach Justin Wilcox who may be coaching for his job. The Golden Bears have not allowed more than 125 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Their game with Stanford finished Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they were on a four-game losing streak before winning their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in November. And while the Bruins are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net Points-Per-Game, Cal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. UCLA is a prime suspect for an emotional letdown after their upset victory against the Trojans last week. They did get outgained by -33 net yards by USC last week but their 11-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown was the winning difference for them. The Bruins have nothing at stake for this game outside of Senior Night — but head coach Chip Kelly may still be on the hot seat given the whispers a few weeks ago. The Golden Bears are scoring 31.5 PPG — and UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams who are scoring 31.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points with Kelly as their head coach. California has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points including eight of those last ten situations. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (199) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (175) and the Ball State Cardinals (176). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (9-2) has won three games in a row after their 23-10 victory against Buffalo as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Ball State (4-7) has won three of their last four games after their 34-3 win against Kent State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have already clinched their spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game next week against Toledo. They held the Bulls to just 278 yards last week — but they managed only 13 first downs while gaining 346 yards in the victory. Miami (OH) has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a MAC rival. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Miami (OH) is favored in this game despite not having anything at stake — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 28 or more points. They held the Golden Flashes to just 97 total yards in their victory last week. The Cardinals stay at home this week where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November. The RedHawks have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (175) and the Ball State Cardinals (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (6-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 17-14 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisville (10-1) has won four games in a row after their 38-31 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to only 257 yards of offense last week — but they only managed 293 total yards in the three-point loss. Kentucky’s defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 total Yards-Per-Game — but they are only generating 272.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats have played 42 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival including four straight Under in those circumstances. Kentucky has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kentucky will find it difficult to move the ball against this Cardinals defense. The Wildcats rank 71st in the nation Rushing Success Rate behind a mediocre offensive line that ranks 99th in Line Yards. Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed fueled by a defensive line that ranks 6th in Line Yards. The Cardinals also rank 17th in Opponent Passing Success Allowed. Kentucky stays on the road where they are generating only 278.3 total YPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. Louisville has the ACC Championship Game on deck next week against Florida State. The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. They did allow the Hurricanes to generate 7.47 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP. They return home where they have held their guests to just 277.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 12.5 PPG. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5-10 point range. Louisville does play at a methodical pace on offense to help keep their defense rested — they rank 100th in the nation in seconds-per-play. But the Cardinals rank only 91st in the FBS in Offensive Line Yards — and now they face this Kentucky defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and Louisville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points including eight of those last ten circumstances. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (8-2) has won five of their last six games after their 62-17 victory against Stanford as a 21.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (10-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-28 victory against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Huskies have been living dangerously since their triumphant victory against Oregon last month. Their last four victories have all been by ten points or less including a shaky 15-7 win against Arizona State. While the Washington offense is dynamic with Michael Penix, Jr. under center, their defense is below average. The Huskies rank 68th in the nation in Points Allowed per Opponent’s Scoring Opportunities inside their 40-yard line. They do not put pressure on the quarterback as they rank 131st in the nation in both sacks per drop back and run stuff rate. Opponents are converting on 42.2% of their third downs, the 102nd-worst mark in the FBS. They also rank 127th in the nation in Opponents Rush Success Rate Allowed — and that is a scary number when playing this Oregon State team. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Utes generated 6.70 Yards-Per-Play against them — and the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. Washington has scored at least 35 points in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after the first month of the season. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Beavers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. They outgained the Cardinal by +274 net yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more net yards. Oregon State is a physical team that can make things very difficult for the Huskies. They have a great offensive line that is healthy again with center Jake Levengood returning to action. Led by running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, the Beavers rank third in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Those two running backs are combining to average 152.1 rushing YPG. Oregon State also ranks 15th in the nation in Passing Explosiveness with D.J. Uiagalelei under center. He ranks 13th in the nation by averaging 10.9 air yards per pass — and he has 42 completions of 20 or more yards, ranking 10th in the nation. The Beavers rank 23rd in the nation in Points Allowed per Scoring Opportunity. Their defense will make things difficult on Penix — opposing quarterbacks are completing under 60% of their passes with just four touchdown passes and ten interceptions. In the last three seasons, Oregon State has given up only 14 touchdown passes while picking off 25 passes.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon State will be motivated to avenge a 24-21 loss at Washington as a 4.5-point underdog last season on November 4th. The Beavers get this rematch in Corvallis where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 18 games while beating the point spread number by at least 10 points in those contests. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Oregon State Beavers (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). THE SITUATION: Houston (4-6) lost for the third time in their last four games in a 24-14 upset loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (7-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 45-3 upset loss at Central Florida on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston will have plenty of motivation on Senior Day this afternoon. They need to win the final two games of the season to become bowl-eligible. They can also play the role of spoiler and ruin the Cowboys' Big 12 Championship Game aspirations. The Cougars have bounced back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bearcats outgained them by -129 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Houston has covered the point spread once in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a blowout loss by 35 or more points. It may be difficult for the Cowboys to pick themselves off the mat after such a deflating loss where they gave up a whopping 592 total yards of offense. The offense really struggled as well with senior quarterback Alex Bowman throwing three interceptions. That game was just the fourth time in the last three years that Oklahoma State did not score more than 14 points nor score more than three points in the first half (they were shut out in the first half last week). The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of those previous games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They could not get their ground game going against the Knights as they ran for just 52 yards on 25 carries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last contest. Now they stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -5.7 Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -71.7 net Yards-Per-Game given their defense surrendering 442.0 YPG to their home hosts. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-62 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (404) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (403). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). THE SITUATION: Ohio (7-3) has won two of their last three games after their 20-10 win at Buffalo as a 9-point favorite last Tuesday. Central Michigan (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-28 loss at Western Michigan as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a conference opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how quickly could Kurtis Rourke regain the form that led him to winning the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season The fifth-year quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes with only four interceptions while posting an adjusted completion percentage of 78% before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the MAC Championship Game and the Arizona Bowl. Tim Albin is building a culture in his image in his third year as the Bobcats’ head coach — but they lost six of the 14 players on defense that played at least 300 snaps. After a dramatic improvement on defense in the second half of the season, their biggest weakness appears to be a defensive line that returns only one starter for their 4-3 look — and they replaced both safeties from a unit that ranked 117th in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Well, Rourke has been solid, if not spectacular so far this season. He ranks 21st in the nation with a 50% positive Expected Points Added rate per dropback. The Ohio defense has been outstanding as they rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Stuff Rate and 11th in Opponent Offensive Line Yards Allowed. The Bobcats have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point setback. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded whether their disappointing 4-8 season last year was a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program. This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters returned on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. After ten games into this season, it looks like their success in 2021 was an aberration. Sophomore quarterback Jase Bauer ranks 107th of 146 qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback — and he ranks 109th in completion percentage. Central Michigan generates only 313.3 Yards-Per-Game on the road which results in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in conference action including losing the point spread in five of their last six games against MAC rivals — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against conference opponents. 8* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ohio Bobcats (310) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (171) and the BYU Cougars (172). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (5-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-21 upset loss at home to Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-7 loss at West Virginia as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones only managed 333 yards against the suspect Jayhawks defense last week. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Cyclones did hold Kansas to just 74 rushing yards last week -- and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Iowa State is a good defensive team that ranks in the top 40 in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed and Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. They also rank 16th in the FBS in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cyclones have held their last three opponents to just 293.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 18.7 Points-Per-Game. But Iowa State struggles to move the football as they are scoring just 21.8 PPG on the road. Freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown seven interceptions which makes the passing attack unreliable. But the Cyclones running game ranks 131st in the nation in Success Rate — and they are last in the nation in Line Yards established by their offensive line. Iowa State also ranks 100th in Finishing Drives — so Red Zone chances should more often result in field goal attempts. The Cyclones only gained 75 rushing yards last week — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. BYU only gained 243 total yards last week in scoring only seven points last week against the Mountaineers. Fifth-year quarterback Kedon Slovis missed that game with an arm injury that has him questionable for this contest. Junior college transfer Jake Retzlaff completed only 24 of 42 passes for 210 yards under center in his absence. In their last three games, the Cougars are generating only 282.0 total YPG which results in only 13.3 PPG. And while BYU has scored only a field goal in the first half of their last two games, they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, the Cougars have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. BYU surrendered 567 total yards to West Virginia with 336 of those yards being gained on the ground — but they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing 525 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after giving up 275 or more yards in their last game. The Cougars do rank 37th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives Rate Allowed — and they come back home where they are allowing only 14.3 PPG with their 354.5 YPG allowed -56.4 net YPG below their season average overall.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 42 or lower. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (171) and the BYU Cougars (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-5) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 24-21 loss at Duke as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina State (6-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in a 20-6 win against Miami (FL) at home as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest lost to the Blue Devils despite outgaining them by +133 net yards in that game. Look for the Demon Deacons to respond this afternoon with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to an ACC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by seven points or less against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The biggest question I had for this team in the preseason deep dive was whether Wake Forest’s seven-game bowl streak was in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson. Only 11 starters returned from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Clawson is getting solid play out of fourth-year sophomore Mitch Griffis at quarterback — he completed 16 of 19 passes for 241 yards while adding 55 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in the losing effort against Duke. The Demon Deacons played what still remains a good Clemson team close earlier this season in a 17-12 loss. With four victories and games at Notre Dame and Syracuse on deck, this is likely the critical game to maintain Clawson’s bowl streak alive. NC State was riding high after following up their 24-17 upset win against Clemson as a 10-point underdog with their upset win against the Hurricanes. But then sophomore quarterback M.J. Morris surprised the coaching staff by retaining his year of eligibility by taking his redshirt option for the rest of the season. Now head coach Dave Doeren has to turn back to Brennan Armstrong who got benched at the end of September for Morris due to ineffective play. Expectations were high when Armstrong transferred in from Virginia to reunite with offensive coordinator Robert Anae who was his former OC with the Cavaliers. But Armstrong did not fit with Doeren’s more compact offensive philosophy than his successful 2021 campaign with Anae. He completed only 58.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average is a career-low. The Wolfpack appear primed for an emotional letdown under these circumstances — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Both of their upset wins were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row at home. Now they go back on the road where they are only scoring 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 road games when favored including five of their last seven games under those circumstances. NC State may have six wins but they have benefitted from a 3-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They have been outgained this season by -13.6 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has a 51-38-1 ATS record as an underdog under Clawson — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 48 games as an underdog following a loss with Clawson as their head coach. This is the Demon Deacons' last home game of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss at Louisville as a 9-point underdog last Saturday. Boston College (6-3) has won five games in a row with their 17-10 win at Syracuse as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 6-3 record, the Eagles are a home underdog in this game. While the betting public is on Boston College this afternoon, one look at their resume explains why they are getting the points. Five of their six wins have been by one scoring possession — and their victories are against a bevy of suspect teams like Army, Connecticut, Virginia, Holy Cross, an erratic Georgia Tech team, and the Orange. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win against an ACC rival. And while that game finished below the 47.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a game that finished Under the Total. The Eagles forced four Syracuse turnovers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing three or more turnovers in their last game. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether head coach Jeff Hafley learned the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. He is getting some wins now against lesser competition — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog getting up to three points. Virginia Tech had been playing better lately with the move to sophomore Kyron Drones at quarterback — they upset Pittsburgh and beat Wake Forest and Syracuse over a four-game stretch with their lone loss being at Florida State. But they were flat on the road against the Cardinals while gaining only 140 total yards. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points. And while they only generated 2.75 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after failing to average more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. Virginia Tech has lost both of their games decided by one scoring possession. They have outgained their opponents by +30.9 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games when favored by seven points or less. 10* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Virginia Tech Hokies (133) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). THE SITUATION: USC (7-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 50-49 win at California as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (8-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 42-33 win at Stanford on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the victory last week, the embattled USC defense continued to struggle against the Golden Bears. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. And while they gave up 28 points in the first half to Cal, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. The problems with the USC defense are mostly against the run — but the Huskies are not likely to commit to running the football. They only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry last week against the Cardinal on 27 carries after rushing for a mere 13 yards on 13 carries in their previous game against Arizona State. Washington is being slowed down by issues with the interior of their offensive line — and USC does rush the passer as they rank 11th in the nation in Havoc Rate. The Trojans have talent in their secondary — and that is one of the reasons why they are holding opposing quarterbacks to completing just 61.2% of their passes. USC also ranks 21st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Washington has been sluggish in their last two games after their triumphant win against Oregon — they only beat Arizona State by a 15-8 score before getting outgained by -39 net yards to a struggling Cardinal team. While the head coach Lincoln Riley (rightly) gets criticized for the underperforming Trojans' defense, the Huskies' defense has been just as bad after watching Stanford generate 499 yards against them. The Huskies rank 125th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 115th in Havoc Rate while ranking 118th in Pressure Rate and 131st Sack Rate — and those are frightening numbers when now facing USC’s Caleb Williams who is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 63 or higher. In a game that looks like the last quarterback to have the ball wins, look for Williams to outduel Michael Penix, Jr. — and we get the added insurance of the three points for the home dog. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: Rice (4-4) lost for the second time in their last three games with their 30-28 loss to Tulane as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (6-2) is on a four-game winning streak with their 69-10 victory against Tulsa on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Rice almost rallied to beat the Green Wave last week despite getting outgained by -186 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards. Much of that yardage disparity can be explained by Rice’s offense only being on the field for 23:55 minutes in that game. They allowed Tulane to generate 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing their last opponent to average 6.25 or more YPP. My biggest question for this team in my off-season deep dive was whether it was becoming now-or-never time for head coach Mike Bloomgren to lead his team to a winning record for the first time in his six seasons with the program. He inherited a 1-11 football team — and the Owls have improved in the win department in each season (outside the 2020 COVID year when they finished 2-3 on an abbreviated schedule). The five wins they won last year were the most since 2015 — and they did play in a bowl game for the first time in eight seasons despite a 5-7 record (they lost to Southern Mississippi in the Lending Tree Bowl). The former Stanford offensive coordinator is recruiting well — and he brought in former USC, Georgia, and West Virginia five-star recruit J.T. Daniels at quarterback. Fifteen starters are back from last year including four of the top five tacklers on defense. However, the move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference presents a more difficult strength of schedule. So far so good this season with their .500 record which includes a 2-2 mark in conference play. They are outscoring their opponents by +5.5 Points-Per-Game while also outgaining their opponents in yardage. Two of their losses have been by one scoring possession. Daniels has been steady under center — he is completing 63.6% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. SMU has outscored their last two opponents by a 124 to 10 point margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points. They outgained the Golden Hurricane by +391 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Mustangs have been very active in the transfer portal — but my main question for this program in the offseason was whether they taking one step forward for every two steps back in the portal. Second-year head coach Rhett Lashlee brought several players on both sides of the ball from Miami (FL) where he was previously the offensive coordinator. He has also brought in some defensive players from Liberty where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously served. But two-year starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai left the program for Wisconsin after making 24 starts in the last two seasons. This is a team that finished 7-6 in their first year under Lashlee — the worst record for this program in four seasons. While the Mustangs ranked 14th in the nation by generating 472.8 total YPG, they also ranked 111th by allowing 431.2 total YPG. Third-year sophomore Preston Stone takes over at quarterback as a former four-star recruit — but this could be a program moving in the wrong direction after Sonny Dykes left two years ago to become the head coach at TCU. Winning six of their first six games seems to be a solid endorsement of where this team is headed under Lashlee — but they are 4-0 at home but just 2-2 when playing on the road where their scoring drops by -12.0 PPG. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Rice has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Rice Owls (390) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). THE SITUATION: Utah (6-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 35-6 loss at home to Oregon as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arizona State (2-6) ended their six-game losing streak with their 38-27 upset victory against Washington State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: The Utes should rebound under head coach Kyle Whittingham this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Utah defense has struggled the last two weeks by giving up 35 and 32 points against the powerful Ducks and USC offenses in the last two weeks. But they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games And while Oregon averaged 6.72 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Utes have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after allowing 6.25 or more YPP. Utah is still holding their guests to only 14.8 Points-Per-Game and just 277.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The Utes have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 at home when favored. Furthermore, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or lower. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory as a home underdog against a Pac-12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit upset victory. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Sun Devils outgained the Cougars by +106 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +125 or more yards.  

FINAL TAKE: While Utah has underachieved on offense as they deal with injuries on that side of the ball, they did score 34 points in their previous two games against California and USC before getting stymied against the Ducks. Now they face a porous Arizona State run defense that ranks 98th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 111th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (364) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). THE SITUATION: Clemson (4-4) has also two games in a row after their 24-17 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (7-2) has won three of their last four games after a 58-7 thrashing at home against Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight upset losses after getting upset at Miami (FL) the previous week. The Tigers did outgain the Wolfpack by +162 net yards as they held them to a mere 202 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin along with a 15-yard interception returned for a touchdown by NC State played a big role in that game. This has been the story of the Clemson season. In their four losses this season, they are outgaining their opponents by more than +300 net Yards-Per-Game but are holding themselves back with a -6 net turnover margin with ten lost fumbles in those contests. Failing to convert on five of their seven fourth-down chances in those games has not helped either. Head coach Dabo Swinney claimed earlier this week that his team would be 8-0 if not for them leading the nation in fumbles. Ranking in the bottom ten in the nation in Red Zone Scoring Percentage has not helped the cause either. But fumble luck as well as scoring in the Red Zone tends to regress over the long run. This remains a team that is outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and their +148.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark is a reliable assessment of how they should perform moving forward. Remember, this is a team that has lost twice in overtime and that only has a 1-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They outplayed and outgained Florida State by a 429 to 311 yardage margin before coaching decisions and late miscues and some Seminoles’ good fortunate combined to have the Tigers somehow give that game away in overtime. So while the critics can point to Clemson’s 7-7 record in their last 14 games, this remains a very talented group — especially on defense. The Tigers still possess an elite defense that ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 4.4 Yards-Per-Play. They rank sixth in the FBS by allowing only 267.5 total YPG — and they are 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The offense has struggled in the Red Zone under quarterback Cade Klubnik — and some of the shine is off new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who came over from TCU in the offseason. But the Tigers are still averaging 453.8 YPG at home which is generating 38.8 PPG. Running back Will Shipley is injured for this game — but that means more carries for second-year freshman Phil Mafah who is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry and +1.5 more yards after contact than Shipley. After playing their last two games on the road, Clemson returns home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 42.5-46 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Tigers have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Notre Dame goes on the road again after beating USC and the Panthers at home by 28 and 51 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home by 14 or more points. The Fighting Irish have forced five turnovers in two straight games — they have enjoyed +5 and +3 net turnover margins in their last two contest. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers as Notre Dame will remember in their upset loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over five times in their last trip on the road. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +3 or more net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two games in a row with a +3 or more net turnover margin. They lost their best receiver last week when their talented tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. That does not help a Fighting Irish team that has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against teams not allowing more than 285 YPG.                                    

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Clemson team under head coach Dabo Swinney is an underdog at home in Death Valley. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 home games getting more than three points in the Swinney era — and they are covering the point spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Swinney should have no problem getting his team up for this game since playing Notre Dame is always something special — and they will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in South Bend last season by a 35-14 score despite being a 4-point road favorite. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (6-1) rebounded from their loss on the road at Wyoming with a 37-32 victory at Utah State as a 5.5-point favorite back on October 13th. UNLV (6-1) won their fifth game in a row with a 25-23 win against Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a victory against a conference rival by seven points or less including their last four games under those circumstances. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs return home where they are 3-0 with an average scoring margin of +21.3 net Points-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback Mikey Keene is questionable to play tonight with leg injuries — but head coach Jeff Tedford has a capable backup in junior Logan Fife who had four starts last season and also was the starter two weeks ago against the Aggies. In that game, Fife completed 22 of 39 yards for 291 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions while adding 21 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their 11 home games under Tedford when favored by 7.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games under Tedford with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range. UNLV has been one of the surprises of the season with their six victories in seven games — but they are only outgaining their opponents by +20.9 net YPG. They have won both their games decided by one scoring possession. Outside of playing at the Big House against Michigan, the Rebels have played a light schedule with Vanderbilt being their only other Power Five Conference opponent and they had a game with Bryant out of the FCS. Their five games against UTEP, Vanderbilt, Hawai’i, Nevada, and Colorado Stare were against opponents all with losing records — and that collective record of those five opponents is 11-28. UNLV has won the turnover battle in six straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after posting a +1 or better turnover margin. The Rebels had covered the point spread in their first six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after covering four of their last five games. First-year head coach Barry Odom deserves credit for turning this team around so quickly — but his teams going back to his time with Missouri have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Odom’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in that 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Fresno State Bulldogs (168) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-5) has lost five games in a row after a 32-29 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-2) has won three games in a row with their 48-34 victory at West Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati outgained the Bears last week by a 450 to 396 margin in yards but a fumble recovery returned for a 15-yard touchdown was too much for them to overcome. That game was the second time during their losing streak that an opponent’s defensive touchdown played a big role in a game decided by one-scoring possession. The Bearcats are outscoring their opponents this season despite their losing record — and they are outgaining their opponents by +98.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Besides Baylor last week, they have also outgained BYU and Miami (OH) but found a way to lose the game. Cincinnati has not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing four or more games in a row. First-year head coach Scott Satterfield needs to turn things around — and the Bearcats should remain competitive in this one. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Oklahoma State has pulled off three straight upset victories after last week’s victory against the Mountaineers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Oklahoma State returns home with their annual date with in-state rival Oklahoma coming up next week — so they may get caught looking ahead. They are getting outgained at home by -6.7 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have been fortunate during their three-game upset run. These three favorites have failed to convert on seven of their eighth fourth down attempts which has often then given Oklahoma State a short field. The Cowboys also enjoy a +4 net turnover margin with seven takeaways in these three upset wins including a pick-six returned for a touchdown. Good luck never lasts — and as we discovered with North Texas’ second-half rally earlier today, even bad luck runs come to an end. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bearcats (203) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). THE SITUATION: Boise State (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-30 upset loss at Colorado State as a 7.5-point favorite back on October 14th. Wyoming (5-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 34-27 loss at Air Force as a 13-point underdog on October 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Boise State should rebound with the benefit of their bye week to regroup and get healthy. Head coach Andy Avalos expects their two-time 1000-yard rusher to return to action for the first time since their season opener — and their offensive line will be as healthy as it has been all season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games. Boise State has been snake bit this year with three of their losses determined by only six combined points. They have endured a -5 net turnover margin this season — and the Cowboys have enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin this year so the Regression Gods could take care of two birds with one stone with an appearance in this game (to mesh and mangle a pair of metaphors). Wyoming has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. They have lost both of their games on the road while getting outscored by -14.0 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -46.0 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games between Weeks Five and Nine — and Boise State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games between Weeks Five and Nine. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (164) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (186) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (185). THE SITUATION: North Texas (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-28 loss at Tulane as a 20-point underdog on Saturday. Memphis (5-2) has won two of their last three games after a 45-21 win at UAB as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas has outgained their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season — but three of their four losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They should be in store for another close game this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. North Texas has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Led by quarterback  Chandler Rogers, the Mean Green have an explosive offense. The junior is completing 65% of his passes and averaging 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception. The Mean Green sport a balanced offense that has rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their games while passing for 297 or more yards in five games. They have generated 475.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after averaging 475 or more YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected higher-scoring games where the Total is at 63 or higher. In their three games at home, they are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game. Memphis got outgained last week by -29 net yards despite beating UAB by 24 points — they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (111) and the Virginia Tech  Hokies (112). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (4-3) has lost three games in a row after their 41-3 loss at Florida State as a 19-point underdog on October 14th. Virginia Tech (3-4) has won two of their last three games with their 30-13 win against Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite on October 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Syracuse only managed 261 total yards in their loss to the Seminoles. They have only scored 24 combined points in their last three games. While they faced the difficult part of their schedule against Clemson, North Carolina, and then Florida State, this was an offense that ranked just 75th in the FBS by averaging 374.8 total Yards-Per-Game last season with Garrett Shrader under center. The senior completed only 9 of 21 passes for 99 yards last week. The Orange have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a loss to an ACC rival by 21 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against ACC rivals — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. Virginia Tech held the Demon Deacons to just 262 total yards in their 17-point victory last week. After ranking 55th in the FBS last season by allowing 370.4 total YPG, they have improved on that side of the ball by holding their opponents to 341.6 total YPG. In their four games at home, they have held their four guests to only 314.3 total YPG which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. The Hokies have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total. They outgained Wake Forest by +200 net yards as well — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 net yards. Furthermore, Virginia Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* CFB Syracuse-Virginia Tech ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (111) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Florida State (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 41-3 win against Syracuse as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. Duke (5-1) rebounded from their touchdown loss at home to Notre Dame with a 24-3 win at home against North Carolina State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State tends to feed off their momentum in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win against ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by double-digits against a conference opponent. They dominated the Orange by outgaining them by +274 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 42 of their last 66 home games after outgaining their previous opponent by +175 or more yards. The biggest question I had in my offseason deep dive with this team was whether the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell. They led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. The defense returned six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — and I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. Senior quarterback Jordan Travis is an intriguing NFL prospect. He was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he had only five interceptions with only 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. So far this season, Travis has 1482 passing yards with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception. He is leading an offense that ranks second in the nation in Explosiveness. While I remain uncertain if this team can win a College Football Playoff game, they are definitely trending upward with 12 straight victories going back to last season. In three home games, they are generating 514.3 total YPG which is resulting in 48.7 PPG — and they are outscoring their guests by +37.7 PPG. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by 21 or more points against an ACC foe. I am not surprised by the Blue Devils hot start to the season. In my preseason deep dive, I speculated that it might be too easy and misguided to disregard the Blue Devils simply because they thrived on a soft schedule last season. They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. This contest will be their third game against a team ranked in the top 11 in the country at the time. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again — and they only have a +3 net turnover margin hits season. But the key to this team is junior quarterback Riley Leonard — and he remains questionable with an ankle injury. Head coach Mile Elko lists him as day-to-day. If he cannot play, freshman Henry Belin IV will get the start once again after he completed just 4 of 12 passes for 107 yards as the starter last week. It will not be pretty if Belin IV is starting in the hostile environment of Doak Campbell Stadium in a nationally televised night game — especially since he does not appear ready to move the ball with his arm. Let’s assume Leonard plays — but one of the reasons he is an NFL prospect is because of his mobility. His bum ankle will likely limit his ability to be a running threat with RPOs or elude the Florida State pass rush. He is completing only 33.3% of his passes under pressure with just a 3.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average.

FINAL TAKE: This is Duke’s just second game on the road all season after they easily beat Connecticut last month — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road. The Blue Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Duke-Florida State ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (342) minus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (2-4) has lost two games in a row after their 41-37 upset loss to Florida as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Missouri (6-1) rebounded from their loss to LSU with a 38-21 upset win at Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina held a 37-27 midway through the fourth quarter against the Gators last week before surrendering two late touchdowns to give that game away. They should bounce back with a good effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to an SEC rival. The Gamecocks have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. The biggest question I had for South Carolina in my preseason deep dive was whether they could continue the offensive momentum they established at the end of last season. They scored 132 combined points in their final three games which included upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson before a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Head coach Shane Beamer had the offensive playbook simplified late in the season which seems to have played a role in the increase in productivity. Six starters return on that side of the ball including senior quarterback Spencer Rattler who was brilliant down the stretch. The answer so far is mixed. After generating 378.8 total YPG last season, the Gamecocks are averaging 427.0 total YPG this year — but their scoring is down -3.2 PPG to 29.0 PPG. Rattler completed 23 of 30 passes for 313 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception in the losing effort last week. It is the defense that is letting Beamer’s team down as they are allowing 442.2 total YPG — and it is that side of the ball that has played a big role in their playing three straight Overs. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing three straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit upset victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. The Tigers have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two Overs in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. My main question for this team in the offseason concerned whether this team will continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers had not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. So far, the results have been overwhelmingly positive with Mizzo pulling off upsets against Kansas State and Kentucky to win six of their first seven games. But they have also been fortunate to win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Rattler to keep the Gamecocks close in this one — the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a home favorite. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (409) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (4-1) looks to rebound from their 28-7 upset loss to Troy as a 1-point favorite on September 30th. Marshall (4-1) also lost their first game of the season in their previous game in a 48-41 loss at North Carolina State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia State should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They had covered the point spread in their two previous games — and they have covered the point sprees in 25 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while their game with the Trojans finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. My main question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether this program was trending in the wrong direction in the seventh-year under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points. One-third of the roster was turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger returned after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. With an upset win at Coastal Carolina part of their 4-1 record, it appears that Georgia State remains a perennial contender to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game while playing in a bowl game. The Panthers stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home gams when favored by three points or less. Marshall may be deflated after losing their opportunity to upset a Power Five Conference opponent. They have played three straight games decided by one possession — and they have a showdown looming with James Madison on Thursday. As it is, the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams combined for 60 or more points. Marshall’s defensive numbers are quite good in defending the pass as they rank in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed — but that may speak to the quality of their early schedule with games against Albany, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Old Dominion that are not known for their dynamic passing attacks. The Wolfpack passed for 265 yards against them while generating 401 total yards and those 48 points. The Thundering Herd have forced three turnovers in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after forcing two or more turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after forcing three or more turnovers in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will have revenge on their mind from a 28-23 loss at Marshall last November 26th. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Marshall-Georgia State ESPN2 Special with the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). THE SITUATION: Air Force (5-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 49-10 thrashing of San Diego State as a 10.5-point favorite on September 30th. Wyoming (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-19 upset victory against Fresno State as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: After upsetting the undefeated Bulldogs last week despite only outgaining them by five net yards, look for the Cowboys to experience a big letdown this week. We were on this Wyoming team last week — but they have been fortunate to beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State in wild endings despite getting outgained in yardage in both games. The Cowboys are only outscoring their opponents by +2.0 net Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -49.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after winning three of their last four games including a failure to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time this season after playing five of their first six games at War Memorial in Laramie where they enjoy an altitude edge. They may be without their top running back Harrison Waylee for this contest after he left last week’s game with a lower-body injury. While the Cowboys played Texas tough in their previous road game, this is a bad matchup for them against the Air Force spread triple option. Wyoming gave up more than 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry against New Mexico and Appalachian State generated 217 rushing yards against them. They also rank 91st in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed that measures drives of at least ten plays and 50 yards that take at least three minutes off the clock. This Air Force offense is dominant — they rank second in the nation in Points-Per-Drive and they lead the nation in Finishing Drives. Their rushing attack ranks seventh in Success Rate fueled by an experienced offensive line that ranks sixth in the FBS in Line Yards. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory against a conference foe. They have rushed for at least 287 yards in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. The Air Force defense has also been outstanding as they have held their five opponents to just 12.2 PPG — and they rank sixth in the nation by allowing only 4.27 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons’ defense ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Quality Drive Allowed and 18th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Laramie against Wyoming by a 17-14 score as a 16.5-point favorite on September 16th last season. Laying double-digits with a methodical service academy can be dangerous — but this Falcons team has won all five of their games by double-digits with four of those victories by 18 or more points. They have been held below 39 points only once this season while scoring 39, 45, and 49 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month is with the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 38-21 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite back on September 30th. Louisville (1-4) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-20 upset win at home against Notre Dame as a 6-point underdog last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville comes off their emotional high-profile victory against the Fighting Irish — but I expect a letdown for them tonight. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they outrushed the Irish by 141 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their previous opponent by +125 or more Yards-Per-Game. The main question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded how close could the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense. Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels. The Louisville faithful could not be more thrilled with the results with the perfect 6-0 start with a victory against Notre Dame — but dark clouds are looming. Plummer continues to be too loose with the football with six interceptions already. The Cardinals still enjoy a +14 net turnover margin this year — but that clip is simply unsustainable. This will be only their second true road game this season with two of their away games played on neutral fields. While they are overachieving ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+  projections by +15.1 points when playing at home this season, they are underachieving the SP+ projections by -8.0 points when they are on the road. Now here comes an angry Pittsburgh team with an extra week to rest and prepare — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. The main offseason question I had for Pitt was whether head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program — or is this a football team that will take a step or two back this season. The Panthers have won 20 games in the last two years after following up their Kenny Pickett ACC Championship team with a 9-4 record last season. But after losing seven players on defense to the NFL, they only return 12 starters this year. The last time Pitt had won more than eight games before this current run was back in 2009 when they went 10-3. Narduzzi was aggressive in the transfer portal again after bringing in Kedon Slovis from USC last season (to up-and-down results) — senior Phil Jurkovec comes in after 24 starts at Boston College and sophomore Christian Veilleux enters the program after being a blue-chip recruit at Penn State. Unfortunately, this team has underachieved SP+ projections in each of their games this season — so Narduzzi used the bye week to make some fundamental changes. One of the tweaks we know about is that he is benching Jurkovec at quarterback and tapping Veilleux as his new starter under center. After scoring 23.4 PPG, things cannot get much worse on that side of the ball. The element of surprise should help the Panthers tonight.

FINAL TAKE: It is surprising that a Narduzzi-coached defense is not forcing more than turnovers — they have only four takeaways this season and not more than one in a game yet. Forcing turnovers was likely another area of emphasis in the last two weeks — especially with Plummer vulnerable to throwing interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 81 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two games in a row — and they covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in four straight games. 8* CFB Louisville-Pittsburgh on The CW Special with Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-5) remained winless this season after their 27-9 loss at Fresno State as a 25.5-point underdog back on September 30th. UNLV (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-20 victory against Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Nevada has endured one of the more difficult schedules this season with games at USC, Fresno State, and a feisty Texas State team this season along with a home game against Kansas. They were underdogs of 17 or more points in all four of those contests. The main question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. Last year’s team continued to improve as the season moved on — and I expect the same this year. Coming off a bye week and now hosting an in-state rival, I expect a spirited effort. Nevada has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have played four straight Unders after USC put up 66 points against them in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. And while the Wolf Pack have allowed exactly 475.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing 475 YPG in their previous three games. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. The main offseason question I had for UNLV was if first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas, The Rebels have not played in a bowl game since 2013 — and they have posted a 29-74 record in the last ten seasons. Odom is a good football who had some competitive teams in his four-year run as the head coach at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas in the last three seasons. His vast experience in the SEC offers some much-needed gravitas to this program. So far so good for this team by overachieving expectations with a 4-1 record with their lone loss being at Michigan. But Odom has taken advantage of a light schedule that has included an FCS program (Bryant), UTEP, and an underachieving Vanderbilt team before the conference win against the Rainbow Warriors. Kudos to the Rebels for winning the turnover battle in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight games. And while they have held their last three opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after holding at least two straight opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.

FINAL TAKE: I like this spot for the Wolf Pack who I suspect are undervalued coming into this game — and the Rebels are probably a bit overvalued with their nice start. The preseason expectations for these teams were about the same — and UNLV is using a freshman Jayden Maiava under center which can lead to some issues when playing on the road in hostile environments. Nevada will be motivated to avenge a 27-22 loss at UNLV last November — and the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (123) and the Colorado Buffaloes (124). THE SITUATION: Stanford (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 42-6 loss to Oregon as a 27-point underdog on September 30th. Colorado (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 win at Arizona State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by 35 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing four games in a row. Additionally, Stanford has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than nine points. The Cardinal has not scored more than 23 points during their losing streak after opponents got the game tape on first-year head coach Troy Taylor’s offense. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive on them regarded the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw. Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. The offense has struggled after playing their best game to begin the season against the Rainbow Warriors. They are only generating 329.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last four games — and they rank 126th in Quality Drive Rate measuring drives of at least ten plays that gain at least 50 yards and burn at least three minutes off the clock. The defensive numbers look bad with Stanford giving up 34.6 PPG which ranks 123rd in the nation — but playing USC and Oregon already will lead to ugly numbers for most teams. They held Arizona and Hawai’i to less than 400 total yards. They also rank in the top 25 in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed — so they should limit the big plays from Buffaloes quarterback Shedder Sanders. Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a victory by three points or less. My main offseason question for the Buffaloes regarded whether head coach Deion Sanders' massive transfer portal reset could rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball. Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. They have struggled with these issues — but Stanford is not in the position to exploit it. Interestingly, the offense ranks 89th in the nation in Quality Drive Rate — and they rank 102nd in Finishing Drive Rate. Getting Hunter back in the secondary will help their pass defense which has allowed 335 and 403 passing yards in their last two games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two straight games. The Buffaloes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored including two of their three games laying the points this season.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 8* CFB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (123) and the Colorado Buffaloes (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). THE SITUATION: California (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win at Arizona State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (4-1) comes off a 21-7 win against Utah as a 4-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California survived their game with the Sun Devils despite getting outgained by -104 net yards in that game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last contest. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Cal has not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after facing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The biggest question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether head coach Justin Wilcox’s aggressiveness in the transfer portal would lead to the results on the field that would get him off the hot seat in his seventh year with the program. Bringing in transfer players at a place like Cal with its high academic standards is tough — but the Admissions Department has been more engaged in working with the Athletic Department in accommodating the admission and enrollment of potential transfers. After three straight losing seasons, Wilcox needed to change something else besides changing the offensive coordinator, although he did do that for the third straight year as well. Wilcox tapped 19 transfers overall with seven of these players being former blue-chippers like sophomore quarterback Sam Jackson V who comes over from TCU where he was a four-star recruit. With these players joining 17 starters from last year, the Golden Bears have the opportunity to turn around a program that finished 4-8 last season. The results on the field so far have been encouraging with their two losses being when they were underdogs against Auburn and then at Washington. My biggest question for Oregon State in the preseason was whether they could take the next step and challenge for a Pac-12 Championship. They won their final four games of the season including a 30-3 dominant win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl to complete a 10-3 campaign. But all three of their losses were in conference play where they finished a solid 6-3 — but they lost to both USC and Washington by a field goal and got thumped by Utah by a 42-16 score in Salt Lake City. Head coach Jonathan Smith has 13 starters back in his sixth year with the program  — and he may have scored an upgrade at quarterback with D.J. Uigalelei transferring in from Clemson. The former five-star recruit had a 22-9 career record as a starter for the Tigers. But despite a good opening game at San Jose State, Uigalelei has demonstrated the frustrating form that led to his being benched by Dabo Swinney in the ACC Championship Game and then the Tigers’ bowl game. He has completed only 50.6% of his passes in his last three games while throwing four interceptions. The Beavers are very tough to beat in Corvallis — but they hit the road again after getting upset by Washington State in their last game away from home three weeks ago. Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite of no more than seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has been a dangerous underdog under Wilcox. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). THE SITUATION:  Wyoming (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-26 win against New Mexico as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-9 win against Nevada as a 25.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s lone this season was at Texas where they were tied with the Longhorns in the fourth quarter before they pulled away late for a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Cowboys returned home where they beat Appalachian State and then the Lobos last week. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games at home. The question I had in my preseason deep dive for this team was whether this was the year that the Cowboys took the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title. Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. The Cowboys conclude their three-game home stand tonight at War Memorial Stadium where they are very tough to beat. Wyoming has a 41-21 straight-up record at home in the last ten seasons after their 4-0 start this year which includes that win against Appalachian State as well as an upset win against Texas Tech in overtime. They are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 23.8 PPG. They have a nice weapon developing at running back in junior Harrison Waylee. In his three games since taking the field this season, the Northern Illinois transfer has rushed for 457 yards with an 8.6 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Bohl’s team has also forced at least one turnover in each of their games — and they have won the turnover battle in their last two contests. Wyoming has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in two straight games. After two straight games at home, Fresno State goes back on the road for the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bulldogs generated 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Wolf Pack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. They averaged 7.66 YPP in their previous game against Kent State as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last two games. Fresno State is considered the best Group of Five team by many observers after outgaining their last three opponents by +197 net Yards-Per-Game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last three opponents by +125 or more YPG. The main question I had for the Bulldogs in the offseason was how close could they come to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida via the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. So far so good. Keene has won the quarterback job and ranks 11th in the nation with 1474 passing yards. The Bulldogs have victories against two Power Five conference programs in Purdue and Arizona State — but both of those teams are rebuilding under first-year head coaches. This game is just the third time this season that Fresno State is not favored by 25 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown has definitely been on the mind of Bohl after his team has been shut out in two straight years against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 282.0 total YPG this year — but the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents not allowing more than 280 YPG. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-1) was on a three-game winning streak to begin the season before a 14-7 loss at Utah as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago on September 23rd. Washington State (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 38-35 upset win against Oregon State as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: UCLA outgained the Utes in that loss by a 243-219 yardage margin — but they could not overcome a 21-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Freshman Dante Moore played his worst game in his young career by completing only 15 of 38 passes for 234 yards with that pick-six. Expect the former five-star recruit to play better this week with an extra week off to digest his experience against the stout Utah defense. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival under head coach Chip Kelly. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game in the Kelly era. It appears that Kelly may have finally found his man to run the defense with first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn after years of difficulties with Jerry Azzinaro and then Bill McGovern last year as the DC. Lynn was the Baltimore Ravens safeties coach last season — and his defense this season leads the nation by allowing only 3.75 Yards-Per-Play while ranking second in the nation in Points Allowed Per Drive. They have held their last three opponents to 236.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games in October. Washington State is riding high after their upset win against the Beavers with quarterback Cameron Ward being in the Heisman Trophy discussion. The Cougars offense has been clicking by generating at least 8.1 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging 7.25 or more YPP in two straight games. They have also raced out to at least two touchdown leads at halftime in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding a double-digit lead in three straight games. This team may suffer an emotional letdown now — especially with the extra week off. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games with an extra week off under head coach Jake Dickert.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars score 45.8 PPG this season — but Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in his career against teams who average 37 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the  UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 55-49 upset loss at Mississippi as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Missouri (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-21 win at Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LSU MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the LSU Tigers who began the year with National Championship aspirations. But expect them to take out their frustrations on Missouri. LSU has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games on the road after a straight-up loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. LSU has been a sieve on defense after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last contest. They are getting great play from quarterback Jayden Daniels who ranks ninth in the nation in Total QBR — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. Missouri dominated the Commodores last week by outgaining them by +232 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +225 or more YPG. Mizzou has played three straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. This team has been one of the surprises of the season with sophomore wide receiver Luther Burden III as their breakout star. But this is just the second time they have been an underdog this season — and while they upset Kansas State at home earlier this year, that Wildcats team was woeful last night in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. LSU will be the best team they have played this season — by far.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points — and LSU has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB LSU-Missouri ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (315) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (316). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-1) comes off a 44-31 win against Central Florida as a 6-point favorite back on September 23rd. Oklahoma State (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-27 loss at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog on September 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats generated 536 total yards against the Knights two weeks ago — and they have played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 42 or more points than their last contest. Additionally, Kansas State has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored 31 or more points. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three contests — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a bye week. The Wildcats' defense has been exposed in their last two games with Missouri scoring 30 points against them in their lone loss this season before Central Florida put up 31 points against them. Kansas State is giving up too many big plays as they rank 122nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed. The Wildcats go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma State gained 409 yards in their last game — but they allowed the Cyclones to generate 422 yards in that touchdown loss in Ames. The Cowboys have played 20 of their last 30 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival. Oklahoma State has also played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Cowboys are a program that seems to have lost their way in the 19th season under head coach Mike (“I’m 40, I’m a man”) Gundy. They only averaged 125.5 rushing YPG last season, their lowest tally since 2001 — and after claims from offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn in the offseason that he wanted to get back to a physical running game, they are only averaging 123 rushing YPG while passing on 59.4% of the plays from scrimmage, the fifth-highest in the FBS. The diminished commitment to run the football along with playing up-tempo with their passing attack is weighing heavily on their defense. On the defensive side of the ball, after ranking fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.4 YPG in 2021, they plummeted to 114th in the nation by giving up 435.7 YPG. The loss of long-time defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State last year was a big blow to the program. The deeper analytics are not bullish as they rank 126 in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The Cowboys are allowing 371.3 YPG — but those numbers include their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas out of the FCS and a rebuilding Arizona State team. In their last two games against South Alabama and then the Cyclones in their last game, they have allowed 33 and 34 points. Oklahoma State has played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after allowing 31 or more points in two straight contests. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have played 25 of their last 39 home games as an underdog. They have also played 23 of their last 34 home games Over the Total in October. And while Kansas State is scoring 39.5 PPG, the Cowboys have played 22 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 37 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Bundy has tapped senior Alan Bowman as his full-time starting quarterback after rotation between him and two other QBs in their first three games. The former Texas Tech and Michigan transfer is a gunslinger — he attempted 48 passes in the loss to the Cyclones. The Wildcats are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.2% of their passes — and Oklahoma State has played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams who allowing opposing QBs to complete 62% or more of their passes. 10* CFB Kansas State-Oklahoma State ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (315) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-4) has lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. Jacksonville State (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-28 upset win in overtime at Sam Houston State as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee dug themselves a hole last week by going into halftime trailing by a 23-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by 17 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. And while this team has not covered the point spread in three straight games while only covering once all season, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether or not the Blue Raiders would be a better team this season but fail to replicate or improve on their 8-5 record. Head coach Rick Stockstill’s squad pulled off five upsets and benefited from a +12 net turnover margin which made up for a -44 net Yards-Per-Game mark in Conference USA play. The defense has eight starters back along with 12 of the 15 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense has five starters back along with sophomore Nick Vattiato who was the Conference USA Freshman of the Year in 2021 while earning MVP in the Bahamas Bowl before only playing in two games last season with senior Chase Cunningham returning from injury to reclaim the starting job. They did win five of their last six games including a 25-23 win against San Diego State in Hawai’i Bowl. Turnovers are playing a role with Middle Tennessee sporting a -3 net turnover margin — and they have committed five turnovers in their last two games. They had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin including four straight point spread covers after a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Blue Raiders have also had a tough opening schedule that started with road trips to Alabama and Missouri. Jacksonville State has benefited from a soft early schedule with four Group of Five opponents and an FCS school. They trailed by a 21-7 score at Sam Houston State before forcing overtime where they pulled that game out. They were very fortunate to win that game after getting outgained by -42 net yards. They gave up 299 yards in the air to the Bearkats — so Middle Tennessee quarterback Nick Vattiato should have a good game. The sophomore completed 27 of 45 passes for 252 yards in a losing effort to the Hilltoppers last week. The biggest question I had for Jacksonville State in the offseason regarded whether this FBS debutant would find immediate success like James Madison last year. In going 9-2 last season, only one of their opponents was an FBS opponent. The defense lost three of their top six tacklers and now faces a full FBS schedule while playing in Conference USA. Their defense has put up gaudy numbers against UTEP, Eastern Michigan, and Eastern Tennessee State — but that may speak more to the quality of those opponents. Coastal Carolina and Sam Houston State generated 399 and 435 yards against them.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. 8* CFB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-4) remained winless this season after their 35-24 loss at Texas State as a 17-point underdog last Saturday. Fresno State (4-0) is unbeaten this year after their 53-10 win against Kent State as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolf Pack have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. My question before the season started on my deep dive on this team was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. The numbers have not improved just yet — but they have played two of the most explosive offenses in the nation in USC and Kansas. After getting outgained by 178 yards two weeks ago in their loss 31-24 loss at home to the Jayhawks, they got outgained by 220 yards last week to the Bearcats. Nevada has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in two straight games. The Wolf Pack have allowed 31 or more points in all four of their games — but they have played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. On the other side of the ball, Nevada ranks 125th in the nation by scoring only 17 PPG. Fresno State has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs have also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their four games, they have then played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The question I had for this team before the season was whether the Bulldogs could come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. Keene has taken the starting job — and he is completing 67.5% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But he has also been sacked 11 times despite the experience on the offensive line. The Bulldogs generated 7.66 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP. After allowing 66 combined points in their first two games, Fresno State had given up a mere 10 points in their last two contests. The Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They should continue to play well on that side of the ball with seven starters back from the tune that ranked 14th in the nation by allowing only 19.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 25* College Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (145) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (146). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 30-17 upset loss at home to Georgia State as a 5-point favorite back on September 21st. Georgia Southern (3-1) comes off a 40-3 win at Ball State as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — and they have played six straight Unders when on the road after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. They go back on the road where they only scored 13 points in their other game on the road at UCLA. They have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, my question during the offseason with this program was whether they would experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty. The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Games and 101st in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. The defense has improved as they are allowing 20.0 PPG along with 386.3 YPG. On paper, the offense looks about the same as last year — but those numbers are propped up by a 66-0 win against Duquesne. In their three games against FBS opponents, they are only scoring 20.0 PPG and generating 382 YPG. Georgia Southern held the Cardinals to just 197 total yards in their victory against Ball State. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Eagles have gained at least 455 total yards in each of their games this season — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two or more games in a row. Now after completing a two-game road trip, they return home having played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a two-game road stand. My question for this team when conducting my deep dive was whether head coach Clay Helton could get his defense under control after they ranked 128th in the nation by giving up 487.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles replace eight of their top-ten tacklers along with nine of the 12 players who logged in 300 or more snaps — but that might be addition by subtraction. Helton’s team was 4-4 in games decided by one-scoring possession despite going up at least 30 points in four of those contests. Despite ranking 18th in the nation by generating 465.9 YPG, they still got outgained by 83 YPG in the Sun Belt because of their porous defense. So far this season, the defense has been much better as they are holding their opponents to 18.3 PPG and 334.3 YPG — and the most yardage they have given up this season was 477 against Wisconsin which, while not great, does represent a big improvement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their 6 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played three straight Unders after Coastal Carolina’s 34-30 victory on October 1st last season which just finished Under the 69.5-point total. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (145) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-3) has lost three games in a row after their 45-28 loss at home to Kentucky as a 13-point underdog last Saturday. Missouri (4-0) is unbeaten this season after their 34-27 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt was only outgained by 37 net yards to the Wildcats — but they surrendered two defensive touchdowns from interceptions that made the difference in the game. This Commodores team is actually outscoring and outgaining their opponents in yardage — but they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. Additionally, the Commodores have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have surrendered at least 36 points in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing 31 or more points in three straight games. The biggest question I had with this team in my preseason deep dive was whether teaching and coaching player development could overcome the hits they keep taking in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team has continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Missouri is unbeaten — but three of their four victories have been by seven points or less. They had the fewest Big Plays in the nation after their first two games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee — and they beat the Blue Raiders by only four points despite being a three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played two straight Overs, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they would continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. After two subpar games, junior quarterback Brady Cook has had two good games in a row — but now this will be Missouri’s first true road game in a hostile environment this season. The Tigers also have a showdown against LSU on deck next week — so the look-ahead issue could be a factor. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores will be looking to avenge a narrow 17-14 loss at Missouri last October — and Lea led his team to scrappy upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Missouri had four losses against SEC competition by 18 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 10.5-21 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (181) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (182). THE SITUATION: Illinois (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-17 win against Florida Atlantic as a 16.5-point favorite last Saturday. Purdue (1-3) has lost two games in a row after a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Illini’s win against FAU finished Under the Total that was in the 45.5-point range. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Illinois is playing low-scoring games with their last three games going Under the Total which has to please head coach Bret Bielema who would prefer to grind out lower-scoring games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after playing two Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing three straight Unders. My biggest question for this team in my preseason deep dive was considering how close could the Fighting Illini get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG? Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin in his third year with the program (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He lost four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It was going to be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. So far this season, the turnover luck from last year has completely flipped as they have a -5 net turnover with five of their ten turnovers taking place against Penn State. But their two losses to Kansas and the Nittany Lions were against teams currently posting a combined 8-0 record. The Illini come off their best defensive game of the season by holding the Owls to just 353 total yards. Purdue has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My main question for the Boilermakers in the offseason was how first-year head coach Ryan Walters would mesh with his offensive coordinator Graham Harrell who will be installing an Air Raid offense he previously oversaw at West Virginia and USC. Walters previously served as the defensive coordinator at Missouri and then Illinois last year which were mostly defensive-oriented smash-mouth teams. Walters’ last season with Missouri was in the first season under Eliah Drinkwitz in 2020 when he installed a no-huddle attack — and that Mizzo team gave up 49.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Walters was not retained the next season which allowed Bielema to snatch him up when he took the Illinois head coaching job in 2021. So far, this marriage is not working. In their three games at home, the Boilermakers are allowing 444.3 total YPG which has resulted in them spotting their guests 37.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Illinois Fighting Illini (181) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-6 loss to Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (3-1) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at Kansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati failed to deliver in the Red Zone last week or they could have upset the Sooners — they scored only six points in their six trips inside Oklahoma’s 20-yard line and they scored only a field goal in their final four trips inside the Red Zone. And in their loss to Miami (OH) the previous week, they outgained the Redhawks by a 538-358 margin in yards and on the first down battle by a 30-16 margin but still managed to lose the game by a 31-24 score. My biggest question regarding this team in the preseason was whether former head coach Luke Fickell left this program at just the right time. After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters are back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. Now the Bearcats make their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. But Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than six points in their last game — and Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Satterfield’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. BYU had two Kedon Slovis interceptions returned for touchdowns in their loss to Kansas last week. After committing 16 turnover-worthy plays last season playing at Pittsburgh, he already has six turnover-worthy plays this season. The Cougars' game-calling is not helping him out either — as they rank 120th in the nation in Rushing Rate while ranking last in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate. The BYU offensive line was completely remade in the offseason with their two returning starters changing positions to accommodate transfers and new starters. It’s not working — they are allowing a pressure rate of 33.3% of their snaps. The Cougars rank 125th in the nation in Line Yards — and this all results in them ranking 126th in the FBS in Success Rate Overall. My question for this team in my offseason deep-dive was whether the Cougars would have the physicality on their roster to sustain a full season of Power-Five conference play. Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team began their first season in the Big 12 with 15 starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-5. They closed out the year by winning four games in a row culminating in a 24-23 victory against SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only five of their games were against Power-Five conference opponents or Notre Dame last year — and they went 2-3 in those five contests. Depth is a big concern for the roster — and they only returned two starters apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. BYU return home after playing their last two games on the road with the trip beginning with a 38-31 win at Arkansas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after a two-game road stand. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of 19 home games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: In the Cougars' last 9 home games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (114) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (113). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (3-1) comes off a 24-21 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisville (4-0) has won their first four games after their 56-28 win against Boston College as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolfpack have not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four games in a row. They are riding a two-game winning streak coming into this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning but failing to cover the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. My question for this team before the season started regarded whether or not they would pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator. Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons. So far this season, Doeren has not given Onae the green light to unleash their passing attack as they are running the ball 65% of the time -- and Armstrong ranks 110th in Yards-Per-Attempt. But now hosting this Cardinals team that ranks 74th in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Allowed — and they have allowed all three of their FBS opponents to pass for at least 295 yards. Louisville has won both of their games this season decided by one scoring possession — although they did get outgained by Georgia Tech in their opener. The question I have for this team is how close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaced NFL players on all three levels. Louisville has played two games on a neutral field already this year — but this will be their first game played in a hostile environment. The Cardinals gained 582 yards last week against the Eagles — but Brohm’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 14 games after they gained at least 575 yards in their last game. Additionally, Brohm’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina State will be looking to avenge their 25-10 loss at Louisville as a 4-point underdog last November 19th. They did beat the Cardinals by a 28-13 score the last time they hosted them at Carter-Finley Stadium back on October 30th 2021. 8* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (114) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (426) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (425). THE SITUATION: Penn State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after their 30-13 victory at Illinois as a 14-point road favorite last Saturday. Iowa (3-0) has won their first three contests after their 41-10 win against Western Michigan as a 28.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The question for the Hawkeyes entering the season was where they could develop an even mid-level offensive attack. They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG. The senior Ferentz turned to Michigan for help by bringing senior quarterback Cade McNamara and senior tight end Erick All as transfers to help jumpstart the offense. But there are reasons why both players were not first-stringers for the Wolverines last year. The Iowa defense should once again be thought with 10 of the 16 players who logged at least 200 snaps returning. They were second in the nation by allowing only 13.3 PPG and 270.8 YPG. But Ferentz’s style of play on offense helps the defense — so significant changes on offense could disrupt the formula on defense. Iowa scored only 24 and 20 points in their opening two games against Utah State and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes finally toppled their offensive coordinator’s necessary quota against the Broncos last week — but it was not because of their passing attack. McNamara only completed 9 of 19 passes for 103 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He is a gamer who led Michigan to the College Football Playoff two years ago — but the Wolverines coaching staff moved off him for J.J. McCarthy because there is a ceiling to his potential given his arm talent. To make the situation even worse, McNamara will be undermanned this week due to injuries. Iowa will be without their top two running backs, Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams, as well as their top tight end Luke Lachey for this game. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 53 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in two straight games. Penn State has covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after a victory on the road against a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. With two of the four College Football Playoff teams in their division in the Big Ten conference, can the Nittany Lions reach the elite level necessary to compete against Ohio State and Michigan? They have lost nine of their last 12 games against the traditional Big Two in the conference since 2017. Even worse, they are winless in their last ten games against top-ten opponents in the last six seasons under head coach James Franklin. The hope is that the team is ready to take this final step with the offense turning over to sophomore blue-chipper Drew Allar at quarterback after four years of the capable if unspectacular Sean Clifford under center. Allar struggled in his first start on the road in his career last week by completing only 16 of 33 passes for 208 yards. But the offense still generated 483 total yards against the Illini with Singleton and fellow sophomore Kaytron Allen leading a rushing attack that ran for 164 yards. The Hawkeyes' run defense may not be quite as stout this season — they rank 69th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and they rank 74th in Line Yards Allowed.  

FINAL TAKE: With rain expected with winds up to 10 miles per hour, the respective rushing attacks may be even more important tonight -- and that gives the edge to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when favored in the 10.5-14 point range after their late cover with Franklin’s aggressive late game management. 10* CFB Iowa-Penn State CBS-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (426) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (425). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (423) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (424). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after their 63-10 win against Western Kentucky as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (4-0) has won their opening four games of the season with their 41-17 win against Central Michigan as a 35-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: The Fighting Irish have dominated their first four opponents by scoring at least 41 points in all four of their games — and they have generated at least 456 yards in their last three games after putting up 444 total yards in Ireland against Navy in their opening game of the season. But Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring 31 or more points in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after gaining at least 40 yards in three straight games. Can the Fighting Irish compete for the College Football Playoff by repeating the power rushing attack they successfully deployed last season —and if not, is adding Sam Hartman at quarterback enough to transform the passing attack against elite competition? The Irish lost their first three games in the first three games under head coach Marcus Freeman last season with them only scoring 23.7 PPG and generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Play in their first six games. But after switching to a power-rushing attack, the Fighting Irish scored 38.7 PPG and averaged 6.2 YPP — and they returned two great starting tackles to serve as the foundation for this approach. Hartman offers the hope of a more sophisticated passing attack after passing for more than 300 YPG in the last two seasons for Wake Forest. But is there a true number-one wide receiver option from a unit that ranked sixth-to-last in receptions of 40 or more yards last year? Ohio State covered the point spread for the first time this season with their 53-point win against the Hilltoppers last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. After their two-game home stand, they go back on the road for the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a two-game home stand. Head coach Ryan Day has reached the College Football Playoff in three of the first four years under his leadership — but is his zeal to mold a team prepared for those potential games making the Buckeyes vulnerable against their biggest obstacle to winning a Big Ten Championship? Michigan has beaten them by 15 and 22 points in the last two seasons by controlling both sides of the line of scrimmage. Previous head coach Urban Meyer has subtly suggested that the program has gotten softer regarding their physicality with all the speed on the roster — and Day is certainly aware of this criticism. After four years of Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud under center, Day has to find a new quarterback this season amidst this challenge. And attention must be paid to their defense that allowed 87 combined points and a whopping 8.9 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games against the Wolverines and then Georgia in the playoff semifinals. The progress on defense is very encouraging after Ohio State has given up only 20 combined points this season. The Buckeyes rank 10th in the nation in Finishing Drives Allowed. The development at quarterback has been slower — but junior Kyle McCord comes off his best game of the season as he completed 19 of 23 passes for 318 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not have the roster talent of the Georgia and Michigan teams that have handed them their most recent three losses going to September of 2021. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games on the road when favored by up to seven points — and the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 8* CFB Ohio State-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (423) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (424). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (344) plus the points versus BYU (343). THE SITUATION: Kansas (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 31-24 victory at Nevada as a 28-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (3-0) remained unbeaten this year after their 38-31 upset win at Arkansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas dominated the Wolf Pack last week but had trouble translating red zone trips into more points — they gained 442 total yards of offense and outgained Nevada by +179 net yards. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after winning two or more games in a row. BYU rallied from a 24-21 halftime deficit in their upset win in Fayetteville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after allowing 24 or more points in the first half in their last game. They pulled off the upset victory despite getting outgained by -143 net yards by the Razorbacks. BYU committed just their second turnover of the season last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road for the second straight game this week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing on the road in their last game. They have scored 79 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: BYU faces their inaugural game as a member of the Big 12 against a conference rival in this one — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas Jayhawks (344) plus the points versus BYU (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). THE SITUATION: Clemson (2-1) has won two straight games after their 48-14 win against FAU as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 31-29 win at Boston College as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson will be circling the wagons for this contest as they look to redeem themselves from their Week One upset loss at Duke and maintain their College Football Playoff hopes alive. This game will be just the second time in the Tigers' last 60 home games at Memorial Stadium where they will be an underdog. After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. Klubnik remains a work in progress, especially with the vertical passing game — but Clemson should be able to move the ball on the ground to set up advantageous passing situations. Running backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah have combined to generate 130.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Shipley continues to be one of the best running backs in the country by averaging 6.1 YPC and producing +3.6 YPC after contact. This duo has helped the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. The Seminoles have been vulnerable with their run defense. They rank 122nd in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed after Boston College ran for 150 yards against them. Stopping the run was an issue for this team last season as well as they ranked 74th in the nation by allowing 156.4 rushing YPG — and they ranked 63rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Clemson defense has only allowed 19.7 Points-Per-Game and 246.7 YPG. While Duke quarterback Riley Leonard burned them on a 44-yard rushing touchdown in their opener, they did hold the NFL prospect to just 175 passing yards on his 38 attempts. The Tigers rank 15th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 23rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank eighth in Havoc Rate. Clemson has only allowed 366 total yards in their last two games since the loss to the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 200 total YPG in their last two contests. And while their last two games have gone Over the Total with at least 62 combined points scored in both games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Florida State wants to believe the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell after their opening week upset victory against LSU in Orlando. Last year, they led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. While they looked great against LSU and then Southern Mississippi, they got outgained by a mediocre Eagles team last week by -107 net yards with their defense giving up 457 total yards. That contest was their first game on the road — and they stay on the road this week for perhaps their biggest game in the Norvell era. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win on the road by three points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 8 road games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Have the Seminoles turned just one corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention? They have lost seven straight games to the Tigers — and the last time they beat them in Memorial Stadium was 2013. Now they are favored which is a rare motivational opportunity for Dabo Swinney in his sixteenth year running the program — and Clemson has covered the point spread in 11 of the 15 home games as an underdog against a ranked opponent under his leadership. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (311) and the San Diego State Aztecs (312). THE SITUATION: Boise State (1-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-18 victory against North Dakota as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Diego State (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-9 loss at Oregon State as a 24.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. And while that game finished above the 58.5-point total, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a road favorite. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 17 or more points. They only gained 326 total yards against the Beavers with their offense struggles Jalen Mayden, a former safety, under center. They are scoring only 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 8* CFB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (311) and the San Diego State Aztecs (312).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season with their 41-25 victory at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (2-1) has won two straight games after their 66-7 victory against Duquesne as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And while that game finished Over the 56-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a game that finished Over the Total. After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, will this program experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty? The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Gams and 101s in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. While they held the Dukes to only 347 yards last week, their two FBS opponents, UCLA and Jacksonville State both generated more than 400 yards against them. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. Is this team trending in the wrong direction in the seventh season under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points? One-third of the roster has turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is back after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. So far so good — but this will be the team’s biggest test so far this season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they habit covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the pint spray in 8 of their last 9 games when favored in the 3.5-10 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed the 3.5-7 point range. 8* CFB Georgia State-Coastal Carolina ESPN Special with the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (199) and the Clemson Tigers (200). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-10 upset loss to Ohio as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Clemson (1-1) bounced back from their opening week loss to Duke with a 66-17 victory against Charleston Southern as a 52-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers' defense is probably a bit underrated right now after their prime-time loss to the Blue Devils a few weeks ago. They may have the best defensive line unit in the nation with defensive tackles Tyler Davis and Luke Orhorhor along with defensive end Xavier Thomas leading the way after bypassing the NFL last year. They only allowed 73 total yards last week. And despite Riley Leonard being lauded as a future NFL quarterback, they held Duke to only 175 passing yards. The problem for Clemson in that game was they had three separate first-and-goal opportunities but came away with zero points in all three of those drives. Sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik still has much to prove despite passing for 315 yards last week. Both teams scored defensive touchdowns in that game which pushed the final combined score up. The Tigers have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after scoring 50 or more points in their last contest. They have yet to cover the point spread this season — and they have played 22 of their 32 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-52 point range. FAU only managed 185 total yards last week in their loss to the Bobcats. Seven of their points were scored on a 72-yard interception return for a touchdown.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (189) and the Mississippi Rebels (190). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (1-1) registered their first win of the season in a 48-13 win against South Carolina State as a 45-point favorite last Saturday. Mississippi (2-0) remained unbeaten with their 37-20 win at Tulane as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yellow Jackets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road against an SEC opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog listed in the 10.5-21 point range. They face an Ole Miss team that may get caught looking ahead to their showdown with Alabama next week. The Rebels only gained 363 yards with just 18 first downs in their victory against the Green Wave. They have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while head coach Lane Kiffin’s team has scored 110 combined points after putting up 73 points against Mercer, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rebels have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Solid technical play with this one despite the total being in the low-60s. Ole Miss has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range — and Georgia Tech has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. The Rebels shut out the Yellow Jackets by a 41-0 score last season. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (189) and the Mississippi Rebels (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (183) plus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (184). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 14-11 upset loss at home to Southern Illinois as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Nebraska (0-2) is winless so far this season after their 36-14 loss at Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois did outgain the Salukis last week by a 360-219 margin in yardage    — but a -3 net turnover margin did them in. The Huskies have been resilient under head coach Thomas Hammock as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Southern Illinois to just 297 total yards including only 71 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than 75 or fewer rushing yards. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Huskies are a team that returned 15 starters from a 3-9 squad last year that vastly underachieved preseason expectations with injuries playing a big role. No player on offense started all 12 of their games. They go back on the road where they upset Boston College earlier this season — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road. Nebraska remains a mess under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road by three or more touchdowns. Their starting quarterback Jeff Sims is questionable in this game with an ankle injury — and while he has been a turnover machine in his career, the next man up is redshirt freshman Heinrich Haarbeerg is very raw as a passer.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored. Northern Illinois has covered the points spread in 13 of their 17 road games as an underdog under Hammock. Expect a close game. 8* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Northern Illinois Huskies (183) plus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (159) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (160). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-1) earned their first victory of the season with a 35-17 victory against Southeast Louisiana as a 21.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma State (2-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-15 win at Arizona State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars consider themselves a live dog in this game with 18 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 last season. They have a veteran quarterback under center in senior Carter Bradley who passed for 3326 yards last year. They opened their season with a 37-17 loss against a good Tulane team where five turnovers held them back on offense. They generated 509 total yards last week despite injuries to running back Braylon McReynolds and wide receiver Devin Voisin. Third-year head coach Kane Wommack has developed depth on that side of the ball for offensive coordinator Major Applewhite who does like to deploy 12 personnel with two pass-catching tight ends on the field. Senior running back La’Damian Webb looked good recovering from an injury by rushing for 79 yards with two touchdowns on seven carries — he looks ready for a heavier workload. Sophomore Kentral Bullock added 82 rushing yards on 14 carries. The wide receiving corps has depth including several tight ends — I like the matchup against the Cowboys who deploy a 3-3-5 scheme to counter all the Air Raid offenses in the Big 12. South Alabama should be able to run the ball out of 12 personnel while getting their tight ends involved in the passing game against the smaller Oklahoma State defensive backs. The Cowboys rank just 81st in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they rank 83rd in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. Oklahoma State also ranks 116th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 119th in Line Yards Allowed which means their revamped defensive line that did not return a starter is getting pushed around. The Jaguars allowed only 62 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. The Cowboys will probably struggle to run the football against this South Alabama defense that ranks 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — but they are vulnerable against the pass. The Jaguars rank 130th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed which should entice Oklahoma State to rely on their passing attack (which will lengthen the time of the game). Head coach Mike Gundy is still rotating three quarterbacks to evaluate who should be his starter — but look for former Texas Tech and Michigan QB Alex Bowman to get more of the snaps tonight after completing 11 of 16 passes for 113 yards last week. Injuries have held him back — but he threw for 2638 yards with 17 touchdowns as a freshman for the Red Raiders way back in 2018. The boxscore against Arizona State suggests the Cowboys defense played better than the eye test watching that game — the Sun Devils were topped on downs four times in that game. Arizona State also lost two starting offensive linemen to injuries. Oklahoma State's defense ranked 114th in the nation last year by allowing 435.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 29 of their last 41 games Over the Total at home after a win on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 49 of their last 68 home games Over the Total after a point spread win.                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 39 of their last 59 games at home Over the Toal in the first half of the season. South Alabama has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (159) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). THE SITUATION: Ohio (2-1) enters this game coming off a 17-10 upset victory at Florida Atlantic as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (1-1) comes off a 20-13 loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State’s program was rocked by its sports gambling scandal last month which has removed several players on the roster including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers and starting Jirehl Brock (who left the team amidst the allegations). Head coach Matt Campbell has been forced to make adjustments on the fly given these unusual circumstances. Second-year freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has inherited the offense but is completing only 58% of his passes while passing for only 316 yards in his two starts. Sophomore Cartevious Norton has become the lead running back but is only generating 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry with 108 rushing yards in his two games. The Cyclones are averaging only 3.8 YPC as a team. Iowa State has been a reliable underdog in Campbell’s eight years at the helm of this program — but they have not met expectations when placed in the role as the favorite. Iowa State has faced to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. This is the Cyclones' first road game in a hostile environment this season — and it is a sandwich game situation coming off their rivalry game with the Hawkeyes before their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week. Their one turnover last week was their lone giveaway of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Campbell was hoping to have 15 starters back from last year’s team that underachieved with a 4-8 record (despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game) — but the gambling scandal has changed expectations. The overall athleticism on the roster was already a question before losing their starting quarterback and running back. Red zone efficiency and giveaways held them back last season — and that is not a good sign in their first road game of this campaign. The books expect a lower-scoring game with the Total set in the low-40s. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Now here comes an Ohio team with 15 starters back from their 10-4 squad that bear Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl by a 30-27 score. If not for fifth-year senior Kurtis Rourke getting injured in their opening week game at San Diego State, the Bobcats could be undefeated. Instead, they lost on the road against the Aztecs by a 20-13 score as a 2-point underdog. Rourke missed their second game which they still won by a 27-10 score against Long Island. The reigning Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year returned last week and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards in leading Ohio to the upset road win at FAU. Head coach Tim Albin to building a culture with this program — and it starts on the defensive side of the ball. After the Bobcats gave up 561 Yards-Per-Game in their first six games last year, they held their final seven regular season opponents to 331 YPG. This improved defensive play has carried over as they are only giving up 233 YPG — and their three opponents have been held to -162 YPG below their season averages. While some football teams experience an emotional letdown after an upset win, these triumphs tend to provide jolts of energy and confidence to the Ohio players as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: With their loss to Iowa last week, Iowa State has now lost 11 of their last 12 games decided by one scoring possession. The Regression Gods may have decided this program gets what they deserve given these gambling revelations. Campbell may have inadvertently fostered a losing culture. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-0) has opened the season undefeated after a 13-3 victory against Sam Houston State in Houston’s NRG Stadium as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Utah State (1-1) won their first game of the season with a 78-28 win against Idaho State as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Air Force held a feisty Sam Houston State team to just 80 total yards of offense last week with the Bearkats averaging only 1.82 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their previous opponent to 3.25 or fewer YPP. Air Force led the nation last season by allowing only 254.4 Yards-Per-Game — and they return eight starters from that group along with nine of the 13 players that played at least 250 snaps last season. They held their opponents to -94 YPG below their season average. Even more accolades for the defense under head coach Troy Calhoun: they ranked ninth in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed; they ranked third in the FBS in third-down defense while holding their last two opponents, San Diego State and Baylor, to going 0-for-21; they ranked fourth in the FBS with opponents only scoring touchdowns in 43% of their trips inside the red zone. So far this season, they rank tenth in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They held Robert Morris to just 165 yards in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Air Force has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. The Falcons return 13 starters — a high number for a service academy program — from their team that finished 10-3 after beating Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-15 score. While they were only 5-3 in conference play, they outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +106 net YPG. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier has been solid operating the spread option rushing attack — he ran for 65 yards last week while Air Force held the ball for 36:38 minutes. While he does not throw the ball often, this offense does lead the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing attack when they do chuck it. The Falcons return home where they have a 73-24 record under Calhoun — and they have a 43-10 record there since 2014. Air Force has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Utah State rebounded from their 24-14 loss at Iowa by dominating an FCS program — but Idaho State did generate 424 total yards against them. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored. They did rush for 380 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. This team returns only nine starters from the group that finished 6-7 last year — and that group benefited from winning all four of their games decided by one score possession. They got outgained in Mountain West Conference play despite a 5-3 conference record in the second season under head coach Blake Anderson. His teams going back to Arkansas State having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home by four or more touchdowns. And while the Aggies gained 591 yards last week, Anderson’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after generating 575 or more yards in their last game. Utah State ranks only 87th in the FBS in Opponent Defensive Success Rate Allowed while ranking 66th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed. When that mediocrity gets combined with the Aggies' fast pace on offense — they rank 20th in fewest seconds per play this season, their defense may get gassed when the offense goes three-and-out in a quick series which then puts their defense back on the field.

FINAL TAKE: Anderson has pulled off two straight upsets against the Air Force in his two previous seasons at Utah State. After the Aggies gave up 437 rushing yards in a 49-45 barn-burner two years ago, they held the Falcons to 265 rushing yards on 54 carries last year — a 4.91 Yards-Per-Carry average as opposed to the 6.94 YPC they gave up in 2021. But Anderson had extra days to prepare for last year’s contest after playing BYU on a Thursday night the previous week. Now Utah State travels to Falcon Stadium on a short week with Calhoun certainly playing up the consecutive upset losses to this opponent. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (394) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (393). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) looks to build off their 58-21 victory at North Texas as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) opened their season with a 59-14 win against Massachusetts as a 35.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Mean Green by outgaining them by a 669 to 225 clip in yardage. This is a team that returned 17 starters from a group that settled for a 4-8 record last year. Cal lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession — so a few breaks going their way could have resulted in a bowl game for them head coach Justin Wilcox. He added 17 transfers in the offseason including seven former blue-chippers with the pressure on to get back to the postseason. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games at Memorial Stadium. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. And while they outrushed the Minutemen by 152 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Tigers generated 7.42 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. Hugh Freeze takes over the program this season that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September. Auburn has also lost and failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road openers to a new season.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (394) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-33 upset loss in double-overtime at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (1-0) began their season with an 81-7 victory against Portland State as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: A 78-minute delay to the start of the game in Laramie against the Cowboys did not help Texas Tech’s cause last week. The Red Raiders got inside Wyoming’s 40-yard line seven times in that game but only scored 20 points from those drives. They missed three field goals and outgained the Cowboys in yardage by a 433-351 margin but could not survive the second overtime. Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record last season simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury. He has an 8-2 record as a starter for the Red Raiders after last week’s loss — but he did complete 31 of 47 passes for 338 yards with three touchdown passes. And the Texas Tech defense played well enough after holding Wyoming to just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home to Jones AT&T Stadium where they hold a big edge in front of their loud fans. They were 6-1 at home last year while covering the point spread in 5 of those games. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Oregon comes off a laugher against an FBS opponent — but the question remains: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. But Nix only accrued 16 passes that were designed as “Big Time” throws last season in a dink-and-dunk passing game. Only 29% of Oregon’s passes last season were of more than ten air-yards last year — and that is a big reason why they ranked 128th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon got into many shootouts last year — but their lack of explosiveness makes blowout victories unlikely especially when playing away from Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and Shough will have a chip on his shoulder to face his former team before transferring to Lubbock. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (342) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (341). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-1) looks to rebound from their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Texas State (1-0) comes off a 42-31 upset victory at Baylor as a 27-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS MINUS THE POINTS: UTSA outgained the Cougars last week by a 417 to 334 mark in yardage — but three interceptions from seventh-year senior Frank Harris in a disastrous span of five minutes in the third quarter that made the difference in this game. Now the Roadrunners return home where they have an 18-3 record straight-up under fourth-year head coach Jeff Taylor. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. This is a loaded team that might be the best squad representing the Group of Five who are playing their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team that finished 11-3 including a Conference USA Championship Game before an 18-13 loss to Troy in Cure Bowl. The offense has eight starters back led by Harris under center. The defense has eight starters back and 11 players who played 300 snaps last season. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in September. Texas State comes off perhaps their biggest win in program history by beating a Power Five conference opponent for the very first time. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. Additionally, Texas State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. Upsetting Baylor was a heckuva way for 34-year-old head coach G.J. Kinne to make his debut as the leader of this program. The former Tulsa quarterback had great success as the head coach of Incarnate Word — and while Deion Sanders gets most of the attention for using the transfer portal, Kinne was also quite aggressive by bringing at least 26 transfer portal in the offseason to bolster a roster that had 11 starters returning from a team that finished 4-8. Texas State did get outgained by -88 net yards in the Sun Belt Conference last year. They were also outgained by the Bears last week by a 524 to 441 mark in yardage. Converting on all four of their fourth down attempts helped them steal that game — as did Baylor losing their starting quarterback Blake Shapen injury (and their backup committed two critical turnovers in the fourth quarter). The Bobcats stay on the road for a second week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (342) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (320) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (319). THE SITUATION: Baylor (0-1) looks to rebound from their 42-31 upset loss at home to Texas State as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Utah (1-0) comes off a 24-11 win at home against Florida as a 5.5-point favorite back on August 31st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: BAYLOR: Was Baylor’s winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021 a fluke? After taking a step back with a 6-7 record after losing their final four games last year after a 30-15 loss to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, this is a critical season in assessing the culture of this program in the fourth season under head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears finished with an 11-3 record in his first season before falling to 2-7 during the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign. They did outgain their Big 12 rivals by +24 YPG. Yet Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears. With 12 starters back including junior quarterback Blake Shapen, another down season would place Aranda’s tenure in jeopardy — and that makes their upset loss to the Bobcats last week even more disastrous. To compound matters, Shapen injured his MCL in that game which will keep him out for this game. Sophomore Sawyer Roberston gets the start under center — he is a former four-star recruit who transferred in from Mississippi State. He passed for 113 yards last week in helping the Bears generate 524 yards while averaging 6.89 Yards-Per-Play. Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after generating at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bears have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss under Aranda. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Utah got outgained by the Gators by -76 net yards but still pulled the game out. The biggest question I had for this team in assessing them before the season was whether or not sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising could regain his form after suffering a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl. He left the game with the score tied at 14-14 with Penn State — but the Nittany Lions outscored the Utes by a 21-7 margin the rest of the way for their 35-21 victory. Rising did not play last week and is doubtful to make his season debut in this one. While sophomore Bryson Barnes was solid last week, this will be his first career start in a hostile environment. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions have a loaded roster once again with 16 starters back. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth-most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. But to hang with the dynamic offenses of the top-tier opponents, this team probably needs Rising at full strength. Baylor scored 32.2 Points-Per-Game last season — and they should put up their share of points against this Utes defense that ranked 104th in the nation last year by allowing 30 touchdowns in their opponent’s 44 trips inside the red zone. Asking Utah to win by more than a touchdown may be too much to ask when playing on the road — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games the favored by seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. 8* CFB Utah-Baylor ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (320) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (317) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (318). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 13-10 loss at Minnesota as a 7.5-point underdog on August 31st. Colorado (1-0) began their season with a 45-42 upset victory at TCU as a 21-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buffaloes made an emphatic statement in the first game of the Prime Time era by shocking the football program that played in the National Championship Game last January. The Horned Frogs’ fast pace played right into the hands that head coach Deion Sanders wants with his collection of talent. But the question remains: Can Sanders’ massive transfer portal reset rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball? Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class — and both are now Heisman Trophy contenders after their performances last week. Hunter was spectacular on both sides of the ball. Sanders completed 38 of his 47 passes for 510 yards with four touchdown passes. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Now they play a team in the Cornhuskers who will game plan much differently. Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule is too savvy to try to simply go head-to-head with the Buffaloes in a high-paced scoring fest. Instead, the Cornhuskers will run the football to truly test the Colorado defensive line. The Buffaloes defense was very shaky last week as they allowed TCU to put up 541 total yards of offense. They did not register a sack or even one tackle for loss. The Horned Frogs ran for 262 yards and averaged 7.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Rhule will have Nebraska run the ball and attempt to control the time of possession. They did generate 6.1 YPC against the Golden Gophers last week. They got stopped inches from the goal line late in the first half before fourth-year quarterback Jeff Sims threw an interception in the end zone. Sims later fumbled the ball late in the game to cost his team one last chance for the victory. He was responsible for four turnovers — but the Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after committing four or more turnovers. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers now have a 3-17 record in the last four seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan. In the meantime, Rhule has an opportunity to put his stamp on this program with a statement win against an old Big Eight rival riding a wave of national hype.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska was a seven-point favorite in the look-ahead lines for this contest before Week One — so this is a definite buy-low opportunity with the betting public now in love with Colorado. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog — and the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when laying up to three points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (317) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (351) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (352). THE SITUATION: Illinois (1-0) opened their season with a 30-28 victory against Toledo as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas (1-0) began their year with a 48-17 victory against Missouri State as a 32.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ILLINI PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois should build off their victory last week. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win at home by three points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The biggest question I had for this team entering the year was how close the Fighting Illini can get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG. Their defenses bent often against the Rockets but they did not break -- they limited them to two field goals on long drives in the first half that kept them in the game. Second-year head coach Bret Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He lost four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It will be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. Illinois has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road. How high is the ceiling for the Jayhawks after they snapped their 14-year bowl drought in a wild 55-53 loss to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl? Third-year head coach Lance Leipold had ten starters back on offense along with over 90% of their production from that group ranked 20th in the nation by scoring 35.6 PPG. Junior quarterback Jalon Daniels ranked second in the nation in Total QBR despite missing four games with a separated shoulder. But can they stop anyone after ranking 126th in the nation by surrendering 469.4 YPG with their last four opponents scoring 43 PPG against them? Leipold is relying on the transfer portal to fill a defensive line that does not return any of their four starters. It is tough to take much from their 31-point victory against an FCS program. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 contests in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: Illinois has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. 8* CFB Illinois-Kansas ESPN2 Special with the Illinois Fighting Illini (351) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (236) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (235). THE SITUATION: Duke (0-0) returns 18 starters from their team that finished 9-4 last season after their 30-13 victory against Central Florida in the Military Bowl. Clemson (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that had an 11-3 record after losing to Tennessee by a 31-14 score in the Orange Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: After making the college football playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seems to be suggesting the problem in the last two seasons has been D.J. Uiagelelei who took over at quarterback after Lawrence went to the NFL two years ago. But Uiagelelei looked pretty, pretty, pretty good for his new team yesterday as he completed 20 of 25 passes for 239 yards with five touchdowns (three in the air, two on the ground) and no interceptions in Oregon State’s 42-17 victory against San Jose State. Swinney turned to another blue-chip recruit at quarterback at the end of the season in freshman Case Klubnik — and while he played well in the 39-10 victory against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, he was shaky in the Orange Bowl against a suspect Volunteers defense by throwing two interceptions and failing to execute on numerous occasions in the red zone. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year. And while Clemson has a great running back in Will Shipley, there may not be the high-quality wide receivers on the roster that are difference makers in the passing attack. The defense ranked 27th in the nation by allowing 334.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is good but not quite at the elite numbers this program has consistently put up in the past. They allowed 231.7 passing YPG last season, ranking 75th in the nation. Has the identity of the defense slipped with Venables' departure to Oklahoma? The Tigers replace four All-ACC players on defense who moved on to the NFL. Now this team opens on the road against a conference opponent in a nationally-televised game against a veteran team with a great defensive-minded head coach. As it is, Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range. Duke’s accomplishments last season need to be taken with a grain of salt. They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again. But all four of the Blue Devils' losses were by eight points or less. They have a future NFLer at quarterback in junior Riley Leonard who passed for 2967 yards last year and added 699 yards on the ground. He has his three starting wide receivers and his starting tight end back from last year. And while I do not expect this team to enjoy another +16 net turnover margin, forcing turnovers is a skill — and Duke had 10 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries for head coach Mike Elko. The former Texas A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator will have a good scheme in place for the Air Raid tonight — and Clemson may get off to a rocky start with this new offense going against hostile competition for the first time. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in September. Duke has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games in the first half of the season. The home team has covered the point spread in 11 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams. 10* CFB Clemson-Duke ESPN Special with the Duke Blue Devils (236) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (235). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (235) and the Duke Blue Devils (236). THE SITUATION: Clemson (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that had an 11-3 record after losing to Tennessee by a 31-14 score in the Orange Bowl. Duke (0-0) returns 18 starters from their team that finished 9-4 last season after their 30-13 victory against Central Florida in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Duke was a good defensive team last year under head coach Mike Elko. They raked 31st in the nation by allowing 22.1 Points-Per-Game. The former Texas A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator will have a good scheme in place for Clemson in this season opener — and the Tigers may get off to a rocky start operating a new Air Raid offense going against hostile competition for the first time. And while I do not expect this team to enjoy another +16 net turnover margin, forcing turnovers is a skill — and Duke had 10 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries for Elko last season. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Clemson has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points as the favorite. Head coach Dabo Swinney has seen his offense take a step back since Trevor Lawrence graduated two years ago. After averaging only 359.2 total Yards-Per-Game in 2021, they improved that mark to 410.3 total YPG last year — but that was still ranked just 47th in the nation. Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Case Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. And while Klubnik played well in the 39-10 victory against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, he was shaky in the Orange Bowl against a suspect Volunteers defense by throwing two interceptions and failing to execute on numerous occasions in the red zone. Perhaps the person under center is not the problem for this Clemson offense — Uiagelelei looked pretty, pretty, pretty good for his new team yesterday as he completed 20 of 25 passes for 239 yards with five touchdowns (three in the air, two on the ground) and no interceptions in Oregon State’s 42-17 victory against San Jose State. Swinney did bring in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year. And while Clemson has a great running back in Will Shipley, there may not be the high-quality wide receivers on the roster that are difference makers in the passing attack. The Tigers' defense took a step back last year by giving up 334.3 total YPG — but that may be the floor for what has consistently been one of the best defensive units in the nation under Swinney. The defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent that is destined for the NFL. Clemson has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 4 straight Unders in the first two weeks of a new season — and Duke has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of a new season. 8* CFB Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (235) and the Duke Blue Devils (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (232) plus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (231). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-0) returns 17 starters from their team that finished 10-3 after a 35-32 victory against Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl. LSU (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-4 after a 63-7 victory against Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: I consider LSU to be a bit overvalued right now coming off a fortunate opening season under head coach Brian Kelly. The Tigers blew out a Boilermakers team in their bowl game that was severely undermanned after head coach Jeff Brohm left the program for Louisville and players like their quarterback Aidan O’Connell sat the game out. Despite posting a 6-2 record in SEC play that was headlined by a signature victory against Alabama, LSU got outgained by -5.0 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. They benefited from +2 net close wins decided by one scoring possession — so they were close to being an 8-6 team which correlates with their net yardage numbers. The Tigers had a big play problem on both sides of the ball. While ranking sixth in overall Success Rate on offense, they fell to 101st in Marginal Explosiveness. On defense, LSU ranked 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed but fell to 50th in Opponent Marginal Explosiveness Allowed. Their defense returns only nine of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps — and they lost seven defensive backs who got playing time last season. Kelly tried to fortify the back end with transfers — and perhaps he succeeded in upgrading the talent — but depth remains a problem. Talented defensive tackle Mason Smith is out for tonight’s game due to a suspension for NCAA infractions. Florida State led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG. Head coach Mike Norvell has 11 All-ACC players back from a group that won their first six games. The defense returns six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — but I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. I give the Seminoles the edge at quarterback as well. Jordan Travis was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he only had five interceptions with just 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. I like LSU’s Jayden Daniels — but he does not produce as many big plays as  Travis. Daniels averaged 7.51 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which falls short of Travis’ 9.10 YPA mark.

FINAL TAKE: Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field where they were an underdog getting up to three points. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the first two weeks of a new season. 10* CFB LSU-FSU ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (232) plus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be paling the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (211) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (212). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 11-3 after their 18-12 loss to Troy in the Cure Bowl. Houston (0-0) has 12 starters return from their group that finished 8-5 after a 23-16 victory against Louisiana-Lafayette in the Independence Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS MINUS THE POINTS: UTSA has quarterback Frank Harris back for a seventh season after he led the team to the Conference USA championship with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the championship game. He was named to the first team All-Conference USA team after passing for 4063 yards with 32 touchdown passes — and he added another 602 rushing yards on the ground. The veteran ran an offense that has eight starters back from a group that ranked 13th in the nation by scoring 36.8 Points-Per-Game and 12th in the nation by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Harris lost his top target in Zakhari Franklin who transferred from the program after spring practice — but he still has four of his top five targets back from last season including Joshua Cephus who caught 87 balls last year while being named to the All-Conference USA second team. The defense returns 11 starters and 11 players who logged in at least 300 snaps from a unit that ranked 10th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed, 17th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate, and 14th in Havoc Rate. With the football program moving to the American Athletic Conference, the Roadrunners have a lot to prove this season as they put their stamp on their legacies — and it can begin with a signature victory against a Cougars team that has moved to the Big 12. UTSA is comfortable playing in hostile environments as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in September. Houston is in a bit of rebuilding mode after losing four-year starting quarterback Clayton Thune and wide receiver Tank Dell. Thune threw for over 4000 yards last year while Dell caught 109 balls including 17 for touchdowns. Fifth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen is relying on Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith to run the offense. While the junior has eight career starts, he only averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in his four starts last season while committing 11 turnover-worthy plays to just six “Big Time” throws. Holgorsen was caught off guard when running back Alton McCaskill IV decided to transfer to Colorado. The Cougars lost eight of their top nine tacklers from a defense that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 32.2 PPG and 104th in the nation by giving up 421.4 YPG. Holgorsen only has one starter back in the back seven from a unit that gave up 32 or more points seven times. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog under Holgorsen. Additionally, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Cougars by a 37-35 score in triple overtime back on September 3rd last season. The Roadrunners lost that game despite outgaining Houston by a 441-335 margin in yards. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Jeff Traylor when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (211) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (194) plus the points versus Washington State (193). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 3-9 last season. Washington State (0-0) has 12 starters back from their group that had a 7-6 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell struggled in his first season at Colorado State with scholarship players way down after he cleaned house — but his teaching paid off in the second half of the season as they outgained their last four opponents by +76 net Yards-Per-Game. The Rams should be much better in his second year with the program. The biggest problem last season was their offensive line which was last in the FBS by allowing 4.92 sacks per game. Norvell has overwhelmed that room with seven transfer players and loads of freshmen to instill competition in that group. The defense returns eight starters from a group that allowed 26.9 Points-Per-Game and 355.0 YPG — but those numbers improved against Mountain West competition as they held their conference rivals to just 20 PPG and 325 YPG. Norvell’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home as an underdog. Washington State seems to be losing in the transfer portal under head coach Jake Dickert in his third full season with the program. Bringing in Cameron Ward from Incarnate Word seemed to offer exciting opportunities last season — but he only averaged 10.1 Yards-Per-Completion in a passing attack that was not vertical. He remains very much a work in progress as he lacks precision on his intermediate and deep passes. The Cougars replace his top four targets from last season. Dickert hired his third defensive coordinator in three seasons after the team ranked 85th in the nation in total defense by allowing 402.3 YPG. They lost four of their top six tacklers from that group including Daiyan Henley who moved on to the NFL. The linebacker group was devastated by departures in the transfer portal — and Dickert resorted to finding retreads to fill the gaps of a unit that does not have a returning starter. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Norvell will be able to use his team’s 38-7 loss on the road to the Cougars last year as motivation for his group this season. That game was played on September 17th before Norvell was able to produce significant improvement from his players. Expect a close game in this rematch. 8* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Colorado State Rams (194) plus the points versus Washington State (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (208) minus the points versus the South Florida Bulls (207). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (0-0) return 11 starters from their team that finished 9-5 last season after their 44-23 victory against South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. South Florida (0-0) has 13 starters back from a 1-11 squad last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky won six of their last eight games to conclude a season that could have been much better with a few more breaks going their way. Red zone issues on both sides of the ball held the Hilltoppers back and betrayed their +136 net Yards-Per-Game mark against conference play which led all teams in Conference USA. In his fifth season at Western Kentucky, head coach Tyson Helton has been aggressive in the transfer portal and appears to be one of the few non-Power Five conference teams that are winning in the transfer window wars. His pro-style Air Raid offense is appealing to players — and he has a great quarterback in senior Austin Reed who chose to stay with the program for his final season after flirting with the idea of transferring himself. He led the FBS with 4746 passing yards last year — and he threw 40 touchdown passes. His top receiver Malachi Corley returns after being named to the first team All-Conference USA team with 101 catches for 1295 receiving yards. Helton brought in Power Five transfers Ze’Vian capers from Auburn, Jimmy Holiday from Tennessee, and Blue Smith from Cincinnati to offer more weapons for Reed. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. When the Hilltoppers get into trouble, it is when they face opponents that can go toe-to-toe with their offense. In their last five losses last year, the Hilltoppers gave up 36 Points-Per-Game. South Florida is not likely to approach that threshold with only four starters back on offense. The Bulls have only beaten one FBS opponent in their last 34 opportunities going back to 2019. While going winless in their eight conference games last season, American Athletic Conference opponents outgained them by -116 YPG. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh takes over the program for Jeff Scott — and while he has former Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon at quarterback, most of the skill position players from last season transferred out of the program. Nine starters return on defense — but this was a group that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG after giving up 558 YPG in their last six games. It will be a long rebuild for Golesh at a program that has won only four games in their last 33 contests. South Florida has also lost 18 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the opening month of the season — and the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (208) minus the points versus the South Florida Bulls (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (173) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (174). THE SITUATION : Northern Illinois (0-0) has 15 starters back from their team that finished 3-9 last season. Boston College (0-0) has 15 starters back as well from their 3-9 team from 2022.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois is two years removed from winning the Mid-American Conference championship. Expectations were high last season with 18 starters back from that group — but the Huskies were ravaged by injuries last year. No players on offense started all 12 games. They endured five net upsets last year. They lost four games by one scoring possession. Despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game against MAC opponents. Head coach Thomas Hammock does get Rocky Lombardi back at quarterback after injuries kept him out of eight games last season. Lombardi led the team to that MAC title two years ago — and he is backed by an offensive line that returns all five starters. The Huskies' defense should be improved with multiple starters back at each level including two All-Conference performers on the defensive line. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games an underdog with Hammock as their head coach. Boston College moves on from senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec who transferred to Pittsburgh. Fourth-year head coach Jeff Hafley turns to Emmett Morehead at quarterback who took over late in the season — but he will not have wider receiver Zay Flowers as his top target after he was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Hafley is on the hot seat after the Eagles got outgained by -81.6 net YPG in ACC play last season. He has trapped the program into relying on transfers to fill roster holes after his attention to detail in high school recruiting waned. After some early success in the transfer portal, Boston College now finds itself taking one step forward after two steps back in the transfer window wars. Hafley lost defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu to the Carolina Panthers — and he changed offensive coordinators for the third time in three seasons. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored under Hafley.

FINAL TAKE: Boston College has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against non-conference opponents. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Northern Illinois Huskies (173) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (156) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (155). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-28 loss at Vanderbilt as a 17-point underdog on Saturday. Stanford (0-0) returns six starters from their group that finished 3-9 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i has the significant edge of already having a game under their belt — and they will be confident after arguably outplaying the Commodores in their house last week. The Rainbow Warrior outgained Vanderbilt by +94 net yards but suffered a -2 net turnover margin and gave up a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games. The last time they hosted a Pac-12 team was in 2010 when they upset Arizona and narrowly lost to Oregon State by a field goal. Second-year head coach Timmy Chang’s Run-and-Shoot offense looked good last week with junior quarterback Brayden Schager completing 27 of 35 passes for 351 yards with two touchdown passes. Chang is rebuilding a proud program that hit rock bottom when they could not field a team for the 2021 Hawai’i Bowl in the waning days of the train wreck that was the Todd Graham era. He inherited a program that required a massive rebuild undertaking after ranking second-to-last in FBS teams returning production. Chang has stopped the bleeding, but rebuilding the recruiting connections and surviving the transfer portal remain long-term projects. What are the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Stanford Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw? Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. Stanford got outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. The Cardinal have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog including in their touchdown loss to Vanderbilt last week. 8* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (156) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (151) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (152). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (0-0) returns 13 starters from a team that finished 4-8 last season. Michigan State (0-0) has 13 starters back from their team that was 5-7 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINTS: The Spartans thrived by using the transfer portal in their 11-2 season two years ago — but are they now losing in the transfer window? The concern about relying on transfer players as opposed to original recruits who are brought up in the system is that the short-term fix may sacrifice the value of culture. Fourth-year head coach Mel Tucker watched his starting quarterback Payton Thorne and his top wide receiver Keon Coleman transfer out of the program after spring practice. The culture that is being nurtured in East Lansing has to be questioned under the leadership of the guy who spurned Colorado in the February after his first season there — and who was able to coax the Michigan State administration to grant him a 10-year, $95 million contract after that 11-2 campaign in 2021. Tucker brought in another 15 transfers this season, but these may simply be retreads of players who failed to succeed at other programs. Tucker only has a 23-21 record as a head coach — take away the ’21 season (and striking gold with the Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III in the transfer portal) and his Spartans are just 7-12.  And by the way, his team started a riot in the tunnel against Michigan players after their 29-7 loss last October. Culture … and now Tucker is playing games by not naming his starting quarterback for tonight’s game. Michigan State will likely deploy junior Noah Kim and/or sophomore Katin Houser under center tonight. Kim was Thorne’s backup last year and got into four games. Houser is a former four-star recruit. Neither has much experience. The Spartans have seven starters back from a defense that ranked 100th in the FBS by allowing 416.5 Yards-Per-Game. Michigan State finished 12th in the Big Ten by getting outgained by -109 YPG — and it is not clear at all the roster has not taken a step or two back this year. Central Michigan was a disappointing 4-8 season last year. Was that record a fluke or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program? This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters return on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. But McElwain has an inventive offensive mind who served as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008-2011 -- and it was his success there that got him head coaching jobs at Colorado State and then Florida. His teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog — and his teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Power Five teams. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road openers to a new season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in 2018 when Michigan State held a 31-3 lead before hanging on to a 31-20 victory as a four-touchdown favorite. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Central Michigan would love to pull an upset against in an in-state rivalry game they care more about than Sparty. The Chippewas have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in non-conference play. 10* CFB Central Michigan-Michigan State FS1-TV Special with the Central Michigan Chippewas (151) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (148) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (147). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) returns 16 starters from the team that finished 10-4 after their 35-21 loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Florida (0-0) sees 11 starters back from their 6-7 team that lost to Oregon State by a 30-3 score in the Las Vegas Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah will be without sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising for this game as he continues to recover from the torn ACL he suffered in the Rose Bowl. With redshirt freshman Brandon Rose also nursing an injury, head coach Kyle Whittingham likely turns to sophomore Bryson Barnes as his starting quarterback tonight. Barnes was solid in a start last season against Washington State. He completed 17 of 27 passes for 175 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in leading the Utes to a 21-17 victory. He also rushed for 51 yards on eight carries. Expect a similar performance in this opener with offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig not asking the sophomore to do too much with his arm. Utah will want to impose their will with the physical style of play that has led them to two straight Pac-12 titles. They return three starters on an offensive line that has depth. They have a 226-pound bruising sophomore running back in Ja’Quinden Jackson who rushed for 531 yards and 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. Utah has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in August — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams currently in the SEC. Florida finished their season on a three-game losing streak in the first year under head coach Billy Napier. They lost several players to the NFL including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Napier brought in senior Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to be his starting quarterback. Mertz was never very impressive for the Badgers — he struggled with pocket presence and precision with his passing. The reports were that he was shaky in the spring — and he is playing behind an offensive line that lost four starters to either the NFL or the transfer portal. The wide receiving unit lost three of their top four players from last season. The Gators’ offense will likely lean on their running back duo of Montrell Johnson, Sr. and Trevor Etienne — but Utah returns three starters and plenty of depth from a defensive line that helped them rank 17th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 111.4 rushing YPG. Napier has a significant rebuilding assignment at a program that took some steps back in recruiting in the five seasons under their previous head coach Dan Mullen. The talent on defense has not been the same for years. Florida ranked 96th in the nation by allowing 411.0 total YPG — and they allowed 30 or more points in six of their losses. They lost their top five tacklers from last season as well. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. And in Napier’s last 8 games when his team was the underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Utah has won 19 straight games at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium when playing in front of crowds over the last three seasons. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored. 10* CFB Florida-Utah ESPN Special with the Utah Utes (148) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (141) and the Central Florida Knights (142). THE SITUATION: Kent State (0-0) returns only four starters from a team that finished 5-7 last season. Central Florida (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 9-5 after their 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Flashes are completely starting over on offense with former head coach Sean Lewis leaving the program to become the offensive coordinator for Deion Sanders at Colorado. With his departure, the team lost a whopping 25 players in the transfer portal and did not return a single starter on offense. The “Flash Fast” style of play under Lewis is gone — rookie Kenny Burns takes over as the head coach after serving as the running backs coach at Minnesota for the last six seasons. He vows for an offense that he labels as “Kent Grit” — and that probably means running the football. Sophomore Michael Alaimo will be the starting quarterback after not getting on the field much previously for Purdue. The offense will be a work in progress — and they will likely struggle against a Knights defense that has seven starters back from a unit that ranked 45th in the nation by allowing 23.6 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road. Central Florida is a five-touchdown favorite in this game for a reason. They have eight starters back from a unit that scored 32.9 PPG last season led by senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. But with a big game on the road against Boise State next week, head coach Gus Malzahn will not be looking to run up the score in the fourth quarter. The Knights have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Mid-American Conference opponents. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Central Florida has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Kent State has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 8* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (141) and the Central Florida Knights (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (311) plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (312). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) returns 14 starters from the team that finished 3-10 last season. Vanderbilt (0-0) has 15 starters back from their team that finished 5-7.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hawai’i faithful hope that embracing the traditions of past glory help second-year head coach Timmy Chang elevate the Rainbow Warriors into contenders to reach bowl games once again. The offense showed signs of life when they embraced Run-and-Shoot principles midseason. But has the Run-and-Shoot been exposed as an offensive scheme with structural weaknesses since the days of the early 2000s when Chang was the team’s quarterback for head coach June Jones? Schemes cannot replace talent — and Chang is rebuilding a proud program that hit rock bottom when they could not field a team for the 2021 Hawai’i Bowl in the waning days of the train wreck that was the Todd Graham era. Chang inherited a program that required a massive rebuild undertaking after ranking second-to-last in FBS teams returning production. Chang has stopped the bleeding — and has begun to use the transfer portal to upgrade the roster. Hawai’i won two of their three games after the shift to the Run-and-Shoot last season. Four of their final six losses were decided by one-scoring possession — so they were much more competitive in their games in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog. Vanderbilt hopes that their teaching and coaching player development overcome the hits the Commodores are absorbing in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea has lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. Vandy has high hopes for sophomore A.J. Swann as a potential rising star at quarterback after winning the job four games into the season last year. But while he had only two interceptions last season, he still committed 13 turnover-worthy plays in just 198 pass attempts — so he may be a Turnover Machine waiting to happen. The Commodores' defense allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game last season, ranking 124th in the nation — and the 6.8 Yards-Per-Play they allowed was the third-highest mark in the FBS. Vanderbilt has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i will be looking to avenge a 63-10 loss at home to the Commodores in the opening game of their season last year. Chang has overseen significant growth in the year since his opening game as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach — and he will be using this rematch as a benchmark game for his program. Expect this one to be closer than the August 27th encounter last season. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (311) plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). THE SITUATION: Massachusetts (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 1-11 last season. New Mexico State (0-0) has 13 starters returning from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 24-19 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies return nine starters on offense from a group that ranked 108th in the FBS by generating 330.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and head coach Jerry Kill’s team is not going to significantly increase those numbers even if they improve their efficiency since he prefers a run-first ball control attack. New Mexico State scored only 25.5. Points-Per-Game last season in his first year as head coach. The Aggies did win seven of their last nine games — including their victory against the Falcons in the bowl game — with the surge coinciding with Kill turning to Diego Pavia at quarterback. But while they scored at least 45 points in four of those wins, those were against some weak opponents. New Mexico State scored 45 points against a Hawai’i team undergoing a massive rebuild who were one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. They put up 49 points against a shellshocked Liberty reeling internally from the rumors that their head coach Hugh Freeze was leaving the program for Auburn. They then scored 51 points against FCS-opponent Lamar and then 65 points against Valparaiso who was a late-season replacement for San Jose State who canceled their game after the tragic death of one of their teammates. The Aggies scored less than 25 points in their three other victories — including a 23-13 victory against this UMass team. They then failed to score more than 14 points in their six losses. Pavia is a gamer — but the former junior college transfer completed only 53.2% of his passes last season. New Mexico State’s ball control offense did help their defense hold their opponents to just 336.6 total YPG, ranking 29th in the nation. Five starters return to that unit that was bolstered by the addition of Power-Five transfers in nose tackle Dion Wilson, Jr. from Arizona and linebacker Jamari Buddin from Minnesota. The Aggies return two starters — and add cornerback Keynote Wilson as a transfer from Wyoming  — to a secondary that ranked 16th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 186.8 passing YPG. Kill’s teams have played 31 of their last 52 games Under the Total when playing at home in his coaching career — and his teams have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. UMass will be debuting former Clemson blue-chipper Taison Phommochanh at quarterback — but he was not able to take the starting job at Georgia Tech either so this ability to transform the Minutemen offense that ranked 130th in the nation by averaging only 12.5 PPG remains in doubt. UMass scored less than 14 points in nine of their 12 games last season. Second-year head coach Don Brown will have no plans to open up the offense anyway — his formula for success is also ball control to help his defense. The former defensive coordinator at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh had his team rank 16th in the nation time of possession last season as the head coach for this program. The Minutemen return eight starters — and 13 of their 18 who played at least 200 snaps — from a defense that ranked 54th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.6 total YPG. Brown inherited a defense that ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 485.0 total YPG. After their opponents generated +124 YPG above their season average two years ago, Brown was able to get that mark down to just +14 YPG above their offensive YPG average. Brown and defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski’s unit ranked 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% conversion rate on third down. UMass also ranked ninth in the FBS by allowing only 175.2 passing YPG — a testament to Brown’s touch as he handles the secondary coaching to infuse his man-to-man cover principles. Solid man-to-man coverage allowed the Minutemen to rank fifth in the nation in blitz rate per dropback. UMass played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s game on the road by a 23-13 score at the Minutemen’s McGuirk Alumni Stadium — they gained only 334 total yards but held UMass to just 259 total yards. Both of these coaching staffs will have dedicated plenty of coaching hours to scheme against these offensive attacks that lack originality. Kill’s teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season — and New Mexico State played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Minutemen played 5 of their 7 games in the first half of the season Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Horned Frogs have been a great story all season — and they continued their Cinderella run last week with an improbable victory against the Wolverines. But cooler heads need to prevail with how improbable this achievement was — as they needed help from the refs, along with arrogant play-calling from the Michigan coaching staff, and plenty of mistakes from the Wolverines’ players. TCU got outgained by -40 yards with their defense giving up 528 total yards. On the first drive of the game, Michigan should have taken the three points when it was 4th down on the Horned Frogs' 2-yard line. Instead, they went for it, which is fine enough, but rather than running behind their two-time reigning Joe Moore award-winning top offensive line, they called some double-reverse Philly special disaster that was flagged by their calling a timeout before the play — as if winning the game was already a lock and they wanted to load up the game tape for their opponent in the national championship. The defensive stop gave the underdogs momentum — and that was later bolstered when the Horned Frogs returned the first of two interceptions for touchdowns. Michigan failed to score touchdowns on three drives that got inside the TCU 3-yard line — they settled for only three points in those drives. The referees played a role in one of those red zone failures by a very sketchy overturn in a 50-yard touchdown pass (after these refs incorrectly spotted the previous play five yards farther back against the Wolverines than it should have been). The Wolverines then muffed the handoff to the linebacker-converted running back. From J.J. McCarthy’s two pick-sixes in this game and the two failures to score points at the TCU two-yard line, that represented a likely 27-point swing for the Horned Frogs (who missed a two-point conversion on the second interception they returned for a touchdown) — and Michigan still had the ball with a chance to win the game (before the refs swallowed their whistles after a textbook targeting violation which would have been called every time if not in the last minute of the game). The Wolverines exposed the TCU defense in the second half when they finally unleashed McCarthy to move the ball with his legs. Michigan scored 35 points in a 16 minute-span beginning with their field goal to end the 3rd quarter. But they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. As it is, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. And while McCarthy threw for 343 yards against them, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 280 or more yards in their last contest. This remains a team that has won six of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession with five second-half comebacks along the way. Away from home, TCU is only outgaining their opponents by +12.7 Yards-Per-Game while giving up 428.6 YPG. The Horned Frogs' defense is far from elite — they have given up 31 or more points six times and 28 or more points eight times (which is more than half their games). Immediately after the game, there was a narrative that their 3-3-5 defense held up against the stout Michigan offensive line. Really? The Wolverines ran the ball 40 times for 186 yards (4.65 YPC) even with their questionable play-calling. Only a Big 12 team can be praised for the play of their defense after giving up 45 points and 528 total yards. And now here comes Georgia looking to defend their national championship from last year after demonstrating their grit and tenacity to beat a Buckeyes team with nothing to lose after losing their big game against Michigan which seemed to remove them from the playoffs at the time. Georgia has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss including nine of these last eleven circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bulldogs outgained Ohio State by +66 net yards after generating 533 total yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. While their elite defense gets most of the credit, the Georgia offense has scored at least 37 points in three straight games and four of their last five after scoring 37 or more points in three straight games. And while the Bulldogs have allowed 348 passing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards. Georgia has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last week, are the Horned Frogs still a bit satisfied to just be in this position? I felt that way last week — and while they pulled off the upset, they needed lots of help. In head coach Sonny Dykes first year with the program after they were 5-7 last year, there is simply a huge talent disparity in this game. Can TCU pull off another improbable effort? This is the 5th time in the last three seasons where they are an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral field. Georgia is loaded with future NFL talent that has won 28 of their last 29 games in the last two seasons. They have a huge edge in big-game experience — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including these last seven circumstances. Look for the Bulldogs to seize a lead, impose their will, and overwhelm the Horned Frogs for the win and cover. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs scored 51 points against Michigan — but two of their touchdowns came from defensive interceptions returned for scores. TCU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Even when the Wolverines began their furious comeback in the second half, they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The Horned Frogs need to tighten things up on defense after allowing 528 yards to the Wolverines. TCU has played 5 straight Unders after allowing 40 or more points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. Georgia generated 533 yards against the Buckeyes last week — but they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. The Bulldogs have scored at least 37 points in three straight games — and they have played all three of those games Over the Total. But Georgia has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Bulldogs may be without one of their key weapons on offense with 6’7 tight end Darnell Washington questionable with an ankle injury he suffered last week. Washington joins tight end  Brock Bowers to form the foundation of Georgia’s smash-mouth spread offensive scheme that leans on these tight ends and their running backs as opposed to wide receivers — so his absence will throw a monkey wrench in the Bulldogs' offensive identity.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has allowed their last two opponents to score 71 combined points after their first 12 opponents only score 136 combined points against them. I expect head coach Kirby Smart to slow this game down with the expectation that his defense remains the best unit in this game and the Bulldogs’ experience will lead them to a victory (and Smart’s priority is winning the game, not covering the point spread). Georgia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. 25* CFB Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games away from home after a loss at home at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big 10 foe as a home favorite. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while the Bulldogs generated 529 yards against the Tigers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Georgia did show some vulnerability with their defense as LSU gained 549 yards against them. Facing the Buckeyes will be their toughest test this season. The Total is set high for Georgia with the Total in the low-60s. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range including three of their four games this season with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points on a neutral field. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. As it is, the Buckeyes have played 8 straight Unders after getting blown out by 21 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a Big Ten opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss when favored by six or more points. I am a bit worried about quarterback C.J. Stroud facing this stout Bulldogs’ defense. While Stroud leads the Ohio State attack when playing the role of a flat track bully, the Buckeyes’ offense stalled too often against their most challenging three opponents. Against Michigan, Ohio State only scored a field goal in the final 33 minutes. The Buckeyes had scored only 16 points with under ten minutes to go against Penn State before the floodgates opened in that game. Ohio State scored just 21 points and gained less than 400 total yards in their opening game against Notre Dame. Stroud seems reluctant to use his legs to gain yards — negating a skill that has become so valuable in these pass-heavy attacks. Stroud also keys-in too much on his first read while lacking advanced skills to move to a second (or third) option — and that is how the Wolverines burned him after sandbagging that defensive tactic. Now Stroud and a Buckeyes offense that will play without injured running back TreVeyon Henderson faces a stiffer test against Georgia — who has a healthy Jalen Carter at defensive tackle after he has missed time with injuries. While the Bulldogs’ defense was not as historic as last year’s group, they still held their opponents to just 12.8 PPG and 292.2 Yards-Per-Game. Georgia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs generated 529 yards against LSU while averaging 7.56 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last contest. And while Georgia has scored 87 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders in bowl games — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 10-4-2 in Georgia’s last 16 games played on a neutral field — and the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Ohio State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275) in the College Football Semifinals in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 43-22 victory against Purdue as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. TCU (13-0) lost their first game of the season in a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was happy to reach the Semifinals last year after beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title — but now they are aiming to win the National Championship. They should build off their momentum — they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread victory. And while the Wolverines gave up 456 total yards to the Boilermakers, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 20 touchdowns with just three interceptions this season. He has specialized in the vertical passing game by averaging 18.4 yards per completion in his last two games with seven of his 24 completions being of 20 or more yards and four of those completions being 40 or more yards. The Wolverines were probably holding back their passing attack for the Ohio State game — now with the benefit of bowl practice, expect another growth spurt in development in the former five-star recruit out of high school. The Wolverines’ red zone issues also improved late in the season — after a 64% touchdown rate in their red zone trips in the first two months of the season, they scored TDs in 75% of their red zone trips after November 1st. Michigan should remain on schedule after ranking 6th in Standard Down Success Rate — and they face a Horned Frogs defense that was 61st in Standard Down Success Rate Allowed including ranking 69th in that department specifically against the run. TCU allowed four of their last five opponents to either rush for 200 or more yards or average at least 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Wolverines may have the best offensive line in the nation — I suspect they will overwhelm the Horned Frogs' 3-3-5 defense that attempts to hide a small defensive front. TCU gave up 208 rushing yards to Kansas State — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. That Wildcats team is similar — albeit with less talent — than what the Horned Frogs will face today in the Wolverines. TCU’s defense can be scored on — Kansas and Oklahoma State combined for 71 points against them. They rank 128th in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed on Standard Downs which is a scary proposition against this Wolverines team. The Horned Frogs only outgained their opponents by +20.2 YPG when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread only once in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against ranked opponents. Finally, 11 of the last 15 CFP Semifinal games have been decided by more than 14 points — and 8 of those winners were favorites laying more than seven points. 10* CFB TCU-Michigan ESPN Special with Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the TCU Horned Frogs (275) and the Michigan Wolverines (276) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: TCU (13-0) lost their first game of the season in a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 3rd. Michigan (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 43-22 victory against Purdue as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs generated 469 yards against the Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 208 rushing yards in that contest, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 200 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, TCU has played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Michigan has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite — and the have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Wolverines held the Boilermakers to just 90 rushing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Michigan has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. And while quarterback J.J. McCarthy only passed for 161 yards against Purdue, the Wolverines have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and TCU has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in December. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with TCU-Michigan ESPN Special with Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the TCU Horned Frogs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.