At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has Golden State playing their best basketball heading into the postseason — they have won ten of their last 12 games. In their last ten games, the Warriors rank seventh in the NBA with a Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +8.1 which is a big improvement over their Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +2.4 for the entire season which ranks 13th. They rank ninth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rose to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. They are making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games. The improvement in defense has been even more pronounced. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they rise to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. They did allow the Jazz to make 51.7% of their shots on Sunday but that was the worst defensive game in their last 17 contests. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three contests. After struggling on the road last season with the negative vibes coming from Jordan Poole impacting the chemistry of the team, Kerr has emphasized better play away from home this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the second half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Sacramento held the collection of G-Leaguers wearing Trail Blazers’ uniforms to just 31.6% shooting on Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 95 in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors will be without Gary Payton II with his left calf strain — but he has missed their last three games as well. These two teams split their four regular season games but the Kings won the most recent two contests after a 134-133 victory on the road on January 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when motivated by double revenge. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 7:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (39) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (40). THE SITUATION: Nashville (47-29-5) has won two games in a row after their 6-4 victory against Columbus on Saturday. Pittsburgh (37-31-12) has lost two of their last three games after a 6-4 loss against Boston on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game involves two teams with similar profiles. Both teams still have something at stake in the playoff races. Both teams were struggling for most of the season before a veteran leader put his teammates on his back to orchestrate a furious late-season postseason push. Both teams have played higher-scoring teams lately — but those recent results may point to a lower-scoring affair tonight. The Predators have clinched one of the final two wildcard spots in the Western Conference. They are three points ahead of Vegas for the seventh seed — but this is Nashville’s final game of the regular season while the Golden Knights have a game in hand so the Predators need some result to help them avoid dropping to the eighth seed. Led by Roman Josi, Nashville has a 20-4-3 mark in their last 27 games. The Predators got their scoring attack going against the lowly Blue Jackets on Saturday — but they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after scoring four or more goals in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after scoring six or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Nashville has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a win by two or more goals — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after a game where eight or more combined goals were scored. The Predators beat Chicago on the road in their previous game by a 5-1 score — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by more than one goal. They have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in two or more games in a row. Juuse Saros will be between the pipes tonight. He has a solid 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .910 save percentage in 24 starts on the road — and he enjoys a 2.67 GAA and a .913 save percentage in his 23 starts after the All-Star break. Nashville has played 22 of their last 31 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Pittsburgh has two games remaining in the regular season this week — and they need points as they currently trail three times that are one point ahead of them in the logjam for the final wildcard slot in the Eastern Conference. Led by Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have a 7-1-3 record in their last 11 games. Pittsburgh has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Penguins have allowed 11 combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 18 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. Alex Nedeljkovic will be their goalie tonight — he has a 2.71 GAA and a .909 save percentage in his 18 games at home this season. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their contests.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on November 28th with the Predators winning in Nashville by a 3-2 score. The Penguins have played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge. With both teams playing with playoff intensity, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (39) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (22) versus the Vancouver Canucks (21). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (48-24-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss in overtime to Arizona last night. Vancouver (48-22-9) has lost five of their last eight games after their 4-3 loss to Arizona on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Edmonton has still won 24 of their last 32 games played in the month of April despite their upset loss to a feisty Coyotes squad last night. The Oilers have played three straight Unders — and they have won 26 of their last 32 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. This is their third game since Wednesday — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games. On their home ice this season, Edmonton has a 27-8-4 record. The Oilers had Calvin Pickard in goal last night — so Stuart Skinner returns to the ice tonight. He has a 2.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .913 save percentage in his 30 starts at home this season. In his three previous starts this month, he has a 1.98 GAA and a .914 save percentage. Vancouver had won seven straight games against non-playoff teams before Arizona upset them on Wednesday. But the Canucks have struggled against the better teams in the league. Vancouver has lost 20 of their last 26 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games including five these last six games. They have been playing higher-scoring games lately after three straight games where seven or more combined goals were scored. Vancouver ranks 20th in the NHL in allowing High Danger Chances — and that makes the current absence of injured goaltender Thatcher Demko even more precarious. Casey DeSmith gets the start again tonight — but he has a 3.33 GAA and a .887 save percentage in 15 starts on the road. In his two starts earlier this month, he has been saddled with a 6.00 GAA and a .797 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: Vancouver has won the first three meetings between these two teams after a 6-2 victory on November 6th. Those autumn days were back when the Oilers opened the season in a terrible slump that they have since addressed. Edmonton has won 12 of their last 14 opportunities to avenge a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (22) versus the Vancouver Canucks (21). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (45-35) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five after their 135-123 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1-point  favorite last night. Phoenix (47-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 124-108 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento misses the injured Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter which leaves their depth pretty thin. Huerter helps with the spacing on the court since he is primarily a three-point shooter. Monk provided instant offense off the bench and may still win the Sixth Man of the Year award. But the Kings still have De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis -- and they did make 54.8% of their shots last night against the Pelicans. Head coach Mike Brown will want a better effort on defense after they allowed New Orleans to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 31 games. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots including seven of their ten games under those circumstances this season. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Kings have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Sacramento still has plenty to play for this weekend as the regular season ends on Sunday. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs — but they are fighting for positioning for the Play-In Tournament next week with them being tied with Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th through 10th spots. This is only the fifth time this season when the Kings are playing at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. Phoenix enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games by making 48.4% of their shots against the Clippers on Wednesday. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. And while that final score finished Over the 218.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Phoenix stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road when a pick ‘em or favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns score 116.2 Points-Per-Game — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 116 PPG. The Kings score 116.6 PPG — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams who score 116 or more PPG. 25* NBA Bailout Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205) in the first-leg of the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Arsenal advanced from the Round of 16 in this tournament by avenging a 1-0 loss at Porto with a 1-0 victory at home against them which forced a penalty kick resolution which the Gunners won. Bayern Munich rallied from a 1-0 loss in the first leg against Porto with a 3-0 victory at home against them in the second leg.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The  Gunners won for the fifth time across six competitions with a 3-0 victory against Brighton and Hove Albion in the English Premier League. Arsenal has generated four straight clean sheets in all competitions. They are in a tie with Liverpool for first place in the EPL in what is shaping up to be the closest finish in the English top flight in years with Manchester City just one point behind them both. This team exorcised some demons against a defensive-minded Porto side by winning in the knockout stage of this tournament for the first time in their last eight appearances in the Round of 16. Under manager Mikel Arteta, this team plays outstanding defense that has not allowed an opponent across all competitions to generate more than 1.5 expected goals. At home at the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners have won six straight games across all competitions while scoring 17 goals and only conceding three times during that run. Arsenal is also undefeated in their four home matches in the Champions League this season where they have scored 13 goals and have yet to concede a goal. For Bayern Munich, the season looks lost with them 16 points behind Bayer Leverkusen. Manager Thomas Tuchel already declared in February that he would not return to the squad next season. They have lost two matches in a row after blowing a 2-0 lead on Saturday in a 3-2 loss at Heidenheim in Bundesliga action. The Bavarians have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Injuries have played a role — but rumors of internal strife in the locker room and relating to Tuchel seem to have impacted the cohesion of this team. And while this team has been capable of bullying lesser opponents, they have struggled against the better teams in Germany and Europe. Bayern Munich has been vulnerable in transition on defense — and they lack an elite build-up with the ball despite being a possession team.

FINAL TAKE: Arteta is likely to take a page from Bayer Leverkusen’s tactical book against Bayern Munich from their match on February 10th. Leverkusen surprised with a defensive 5-3-2 formation that set them up to counterattack the vulnerable Bavarians' transition defense. Not only did they win by a 3-0 score but they held Bayern Munich to just 0.6 expected goals. Arsenal thrives versus high-pressing teams like the Bavarians — and Arteta demonstrated that he is content to play out of possession last month against Manchester City when they held them to under 1.0 expected goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.  

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.            

FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.                                                                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (29-8) has won seven straight games after their 72-69 upset victory against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Connecticut (34-3) has won ten games in a row with their 82-52 victory against San Diego State as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden Arena in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Illini played their best game on defense in their last five contests by holding the Cyclones to just 39.7% shooting from the field. But defense is not a staple for this Illinois team that ranks 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are still allowing +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the 316th worst drop in efficiency when compared to a team’s defensive efficiency when playing at home. They rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their 19 games away from home — and that is not simply a function of playing in hostile environments since they also rank 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their eight games played on a neutral court. To make matters worse for head coach Brad Underwood, it is very difficult to prepare for Huskies’ head coach Dan Hurley’s complex offensive sets — especially with only one day to prepare. The Illini only made 42.1% of their shots against the tough Iowa State defense — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Fighting Illini are a powerhouse on that end of the court. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games — and they also lead the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They score +12.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the biggest jump in the nation. They make 47.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.6 Points-Per-Game on the road which is +1.4 more PPG than their season average. But they allow their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots including 36.1% of their 3s resulting in 78.1 PPG which is +4.9 PPG above their season average. Illinois has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. UConn made 46.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Huskies are scoring 82.7 PPG in this Big Dance despite only making 30.6% of their 3-pointers. They make 36.2% of their 3s on the season while ranking number in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, they fall to second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, just behind the Illini. They outrebounded the Aztecs by a 50-29 margin — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by +20 or more boards. But the Huskies have played four straight Unders on the strength of their defense and they have not allowed more than 58 points in those four games. A few things about this Under trend. UConn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have won all four of those games by at least 16 points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who score 84 or more PPG. On the road, they are also giving up +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions than when they are at home. The Huskies have a great roster but they probably lack the player who can slow down the Illini’s Terrence Shannon.

FINAL TAKE: UConn attempts 24 shots from behind the arc per game — and Illinois has played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against winning teams — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (25-9) has won five of their last six games after their 86-73 victory in double-overtime against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (26-8) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 62-58 win against Texas as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bluejays only made 38.7% of their shots against the Ducks last weekend — but they did convert on 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) of their shots from 3-point range (many of them in the second double overtime period to ruin our Oregon play). Creighton lives and dies by their 3-point shooting — they rank seventh in the nation by taking 48.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Their reliance on 3s could spell trouble when facing this stout Volunteers defense that ranks 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.9% of their 3-pointers. The Bluejays score -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — that discrepancy is the 352nd worst split in the nation. The problem for Creighton is they lack a Plan B if their 3s are not falling. They are dead last in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They only rebound 26.2% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. They are the only team left in the Big Dance that has a negative Shot Volume mark relative to what they surrender. But head coach Greg McDermott’s squad is a good defensive team that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacrificing offensive rebounding allows the Bluejays to get back on defense — and not going for turnovers limits the fouls they commit. They have the best defensive foul rate in the nation. They play great half-court defense by ranking 10th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.2%. The focus on defense is to get their opponent off the 3-point line — they rank sixth in the nation with their opponents only taking  27.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Made 3s consist of only 25.1% of their opponent’s points which is the 336th lowest mark. Creighton has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tennessee has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. This Volunteers team was supposed to be different and not offensively challenged given the emergence of Dalton Knecht. But Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combined to miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc. These primary scorers may be feeling the pressure to compensate for the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. His struggles are impacting the flow of the offense — not only did Tennessee only make 33.8% of their shots against the Longhorns, but they had more turnovers than assists. Creighton will give the Vols the midrange — but Knecht only connects on 39% of his midrange jumpers. Tennessee will rely on its defense that held Texas without a 3-pointer for 24 straight minutes on Saturday. The Volunteers rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their 44.1% opponent’s effective field goal percentage ranks fourth in the nation — and they hold their opponents to 44.1% shooting inside the arc. Tennessee has played 30 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of their games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (27-7) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 89-68 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (31-4) has won eight of their last nine games after their 106-67 win against Utah State as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue exorcised some of their demons last week after Fairleigh Dickinson knocked them off in the Round of 64 last year despite being a one seed. The Boilermakers had an easy time of it in a 78-50 victory against Grambling State before their 39-point win against the Aggies over the weekend. But this remains a program that has not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019 — so nerves may play a role for this team that has been National Championship or bust ambitions all season. Purdue made 55.9% of their shots against Utah State which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Aggies to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have beaten six teams this season by 30 or more points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 next contests going into tonight’s showdown. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. Since getting outrebounded by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue has outrebounded their next three opponents by at least 14 boards. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after outrebounding two straight opponents by ten or more boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after outrebounding three straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. Away from home, Purdue scores -7.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions which ranks 337th in the nation in the worst drop-off from the home offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting — and the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower. And while Gonzaga outscores their opponents by +16.2 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after 15 games into the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. There is a national perception that this is a down year for head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs — but this is a better team since Few inserted Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January. The 6’10 big man makes 38.6% of his 3-pointers — his ability to play on the perimeter opens up space for superstar point guard Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike to operate their pick-and-rolls with plenty of room. Gonzaga ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games led by a nearly unstoppable offense that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency during that span. They lead the nation in their last ten games with an effective field goal percentage of 61.5% -- leading the nation with a 44.2% clip from behind the arc and ranking fourth with a 59.6% mark from inside the arc. The Bulldogs will slow down the Boilermakers' rebounding edge — they outrebound their opponents by +7.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while ranking 52nd in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots. On the road, Gonzaga ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Boilermakers make 49.0% of their shots — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 48% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of Purdue’s 73-63 victory against the Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational on November 20th. A few things from that game. First, Few had yet to insert Gregg into the starting lineup which unleashed the offensive attack. Second, Gonzaga neutralized the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge with both teams pulling down 38 boards. Third, Purdue’s Zach Edey was not called for a foul while Ike was in foul trouble all game with four personal fouls — that is not likely to happen again. Few has had a long time to consider how to adjust to the Boilermakers’ motion offense — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (33-3) has won nine games in a row after their 75-58 victory against Northwestern as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Diego State (26-10) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 85-57 victory against Yale as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t always love laying double-digits but am willing to do it in this instance in this rematch of last year’s National Championship Game. UConn won that game by a 76-59 score — and while they may be even better this season, the Aztecs are not quite as good as that group was last year. While San Diego State ranked eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road last season, they fall to 22nd in that metric when playing away from home this season. The Aztecs give up +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road versus at home this season — and that is the 308th worst discrepancy in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Aztecs' offense is too one-dimensional as they rely too much on big man Jaedon LeDee (who was coming off the bench last year). Huskies head coach has a three-headed monster to slow down LeDee in starters Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban along with Samson Johnson coming off the bench. San Diego State did make 52.7% of their shots against Yale on Sunday but that was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. UConn’s three losses this season have either come from an ice-cold shooting performance or running into a team on fire from behind the arc. But San Diego State only makes 31.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Huskies have won three straight games by 16 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row by 15 or more points. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after not allowing more than 58 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While San Diego State has revenge on their minds, don’t underestimate the motivation the Huskies have in this game as a measuring stick regarding how this year’s group compares to last year’s squad. UConn has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617) in the Semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-14) has won two games in a row after their 71-57 victory against Evansville as a 9-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Fairfield (24-12) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 77-74 victory against Chicago State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is a solid team out of the Western Athletic Conference who beat Grand Canyon while losing a second game on the road against them in overtime. They also beat Louisiana Tech and lost in double overtime to Washington. Head coach Chris Victor has his team play very good defense — they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency off the strength of their half-court defense. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Stags live and die by the 3-point shot — but the Redhawks rank seventh in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc. Seattle should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. On the road, they are scoring +7.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while Fairfield outscores their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game, Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Stags nailed 57.7% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. But Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. And while they have won nine of their last 11 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. The Stags are a good offensive team — but they struggle to stop their opponents on the other end of the court. Fairfield ranks 243rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The problems are with their interior defense. They allow their opponent to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 303rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the nation. Seattle limits their opponents to 41.4% shooting — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. Fairfield had a 10-4 record when playing at home — but they rank 272nd in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games including all five of those circumstances this season.

FINAL TAKE: Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season — and the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games in a tournament setting. 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year with the playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847) in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah (20-14) won for the second time in their last three games after their 84-75 victory against UC-Irvine as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (19-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 91-82 victory at home against Kansas State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah ranks top-50 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have beaten six teams that made the NCAA Tournament: Saint Mary’s, BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. They are particularly tough to beat at home where they enjoy an altitude edge in Provo — especially against teams from the east like Iowa. The Utes have a 15-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +16.5 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 38.7% shooting including a 31.5% mark from behind the arc that results in 67.9 PPG on their home court. They make 49.4% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — and they enjoy the 24th biggest jump in that metric when compared to playing away from home. Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Iowa made 48.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They scored 78 points in their 12-point loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Hawkeyes rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they struggle on the other end of the court. They rank 151st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 188th in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Interior defense is a significant problem as they allow their home hosts to make 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in at 160 or higher, they have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Utah outscores their opponents by +5.5 PPG — and Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB 2nd Round NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:55 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-12) has lost four of their last six games after their 60-45 loss to Houston as an 11.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Utah State (27-6) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 86-70 loss to San Diego State as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU shot a season-low 23.3% from the field in their loss to the Cougars who might be the best defensive team in the country. But head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to play tonight. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. And while they missed 18 of their 20 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-pointers — including all four of those occasions this season. TCU has been resilient under Dixon’s guidance — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss including eight of their previous 11 losses this season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival including six of those nine occasions this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. Dixon has his team engage in a style of play that leads to success in single-elimination games because he emphasizes seizing extra possessions. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They are also an above-average 3-point shooting team that makes 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. TCU scores +1.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road as opposed to being at home. And while the fact that they give up +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road is concerning, when looking at just their six games played on a neutral court, they allow -0.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions versus home and true road games — and those six contests include four games against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 contests. I worry about this Aggies team in tournament settings because they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, this team plays like his previous Montana State teams. They get to the free throw line — and they are an outstanding shooting team inside the arc where they rank tenth in the nation by making 57.1% of their shots. But they only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th in the nation. They do not create many second chances for themselves on the offensive glass as they pull down only 28.5% of their missed shots, ranking 192nd in the nation. And they force turnovers in only 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 223rd in the nation. On the road, they are scoring -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — so the old-school Bobby Knight style of play on offense does not travel well for them. And they do not play the same quality of defense as those Knight teams from the 1970s and 80s. Utah State ranks 67th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 303rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games in the postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of their eight games this season under Sprinkle. TCU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against those teams when playing them 15 games into the season. This Horned Frogs team has high-profile wins against Houston and Baylor. Lastly, TCU ranks 296th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s Luck Factor rankings based on his analytics while the Aggies rank 14th in that metric — so perhaps this is a game that the Regression Gods have circled. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game of the Year with the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (28-6) has won five straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after upsetting Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game as a 3-point underdog on March 10th. Washington State (24-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 58-52 loss to Colorado as a 2-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs nailed 51.7% of their shots in their upset victory against the Sycamores 11 days ago which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. With the extended layoff between games, their shooting may be rusty tonight — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests — so head coach Darian DeVries will likely have his team tighten up on that end of the court. Drake struggled on the defensive end of the court in hostile environments where they had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 103.9 — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their seven games on neutral courts of 97.8 this season was in line with their 98.5 defensive efficiency clip when playing on their home court. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, Drake has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders and 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Drake scores -2.7 fewer Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they do not engage the things to increase their scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. They force turnovers in just 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 142nd. They rank 186th in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not gotten great point guard play from sophomore Conor Enright or freshman Coby Colby who split time — it is why DeVries has resorted to deploying his son, Tucker, as a point forward. But that may not be effective against the outstanding half-court defense of the Cougars. Drake can’t get mired into being too reliant on outside shooting where they do make 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. Washington State ranks 51st in the nation by holding their opponents to a 31.6% shooting clip from behind the arc when playing away from home — and they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Myles Rice is their only player who has the skills to create Despite their loss to the Buffaloes last week, they held them to just 43.1% shooting. They surrender -3.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they also only score 69.7 PPG on the road which is -4.7 fewer PPG than their season average — and the -8.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road represents the 342nd worst drop in scoring efficiency when compared to their home numbers. Head coach Kyle Smith is going to slow this game to a crawl — the Cougars rank 315th in the nation with only 64.9 adjusted possessions per game. Washington State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. And while the Bulldogs make 47.9% of their shots, the Cougars have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.                                                                                            

FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to be a rock fight given the lack of scoring options for both teams. Washington State has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 Points-Per-Game — and Drake has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-66 loss to New Mexico in a pick ‘em match last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Colorado (24-10) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 75-68 upset loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the finals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado is a bit challenging to figure out as they played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Buffaloes did deal with some injuries this season with freshman phenom Cody Williams missing 13 games being the most impactful. He is back on the court again, although he may not be 100%. I appreciate the narrative that this team underperformed high preseason expectations — but they are playing at that level now that they are close to 100% again. But problems remain. For starters, Colorado played much better at home in Boulder where they usually have an advantage over their visitors given the high altitude. With a 16-1 record at home, they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when evaluating home court edges. Of note is their 42.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc which ranks fifth best in the nation for home teams. But when away from Boulder, the Buffaloes drop to 47th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and their statistical drop represents the 292nd biggest split in the nation. They allow +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, ranking 321st in the country in the biggest rise in opponent scoring. Colorado is simply not a great defensive team away from home as they rank 91st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. On offense, the Buffaloes score -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, ranking 284th in the nation with that drop in offensive efficiency. They make 35.8% of their 3-pointers on the road which still ranks 59th in the country — but that -6.9% drop represents the 325th worst loss of shooting effectiveness. They also turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. And while their game with the Ducks finished Over the 140-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Buffaloes have not been reliably resilient under head coach Tad Boyle after setbacks either. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games — so a letdown may be looming for this team. Boise State has been stewing to get back on the court after making only 29.4% of their shots against the Lobos in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have converted at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making at least 10 shots from distance in two or more games in a row. Boise State ranks 49th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home led by its defense that ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.0% 3-point shooting away from home. Overall, the Broncos rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.1% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State’s Leon Rice is one of the most underrated in the business — and he has led the Broncos to now three straight NCAA Tournaments. This is Colorado’s first trip to the Big Dance in three years. The public loves the Buffaloes tonight — and the fact that Mountain West Conference teams are 23-46-2 ATS in the Big Dance since 2006 (not sure if that counts Colorado State’s victory last night) is probably playing a role in that sentiment. Besides Colorado’s tournament inexperience, their best victory this season was likely against a Washington State team that ranks 42nd in the nation at KenPom despite playing in the Pac-12. Boise State played a top-30 schedule in the nation — and they have seven victories that all rate better than that using KenPom’s metrics: Saint Mary’s (#18th); San Diego State twice (#20th); New Mexico twice (#22nd); Colorado State (#30); Nevada (#34th). With the Buffaloes now laying -3 to even -3.5s, the strong value is with the battle-tested underdog. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers tend to get into rock fight contests — especially against teams unfamiliar with their brand of the pack line defense. Virginia ranks seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also like to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. They rank 352nd in the nation by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 362nd in the nation by averaging 59.9 adjusted possessions per game. Head coach Tony Bennett has had his team slow things down even more lately. In the Cav’s last three games, they have averaged 21.0, 21.5, and 22.6 seconds per possession. For some context, Air Force was the slowest team in the nation averaging 20.5 seconds per possession — so Bennett has his team going even slower than that. Virginia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while this is their third game since Thursday, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Virginia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Colorado State has played 8 straight Unders after winning four of their last five games. And while the Rams have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then played 4 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in four or more of their last five games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. But the Rams’ 46.4% shooting percentage and 72.4 PPG scoring mark away from home are 2.4% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. They score -4.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They rank 241st in the nation by making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc away from home — and their inability to make 3s will make solving the Virginia pack line defense very difficult. They are led by point guard Isaiah Stevens — but he has a difficult challenge tonight when he will be guarded by Reece Beekman who is a glove defensively. Colorado State has played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when on a neutral court — and Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29  of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (25-8) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 98-87 victory against Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite in their semifinal showdown yesterday. Wisconsin (76-75) has won three games in a row after their 76-75 upset victory in overtime against Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog in their semifinal game yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois was locked in with their 3-point shooting yesterday as they nailed 13 of their 35 shots en route to their victory. They should build off that momentum this afternoon. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last game. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a win by double-digits. The Illini did allow the Cornhuskers to make 46% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. The Fighting Illini rank fifth in the nation's Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for a physical and emotional after outlasting the Boilermakers in overtime yesterday. This is a tough matchup for the Badgers against this Illinois team that plays fast and scores tons of points. The Fighting Illini score 83.7 Points-Per-Game while launching 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 77 or more PPG. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. The Badgers struggle with their perimeter defense — they rank 347th in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert on a whopping 37.2% of their 3-point shots. Wisconsin’s opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0% ranks 262nd in the nation. Inexplicably, Purdue only attempted 16 shots from behind the arc yesterday with their head coach Matt Painter seemingly lost control of the script and still freaked out regarding how to have his team play in one-and-down contests after they got upset as a number one seed last year in the Big Dance. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood will not make that mistake today. The Badgers score -5.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 209th in the nation in the drop off in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UTEP (18-15) has won five straight games after their 65-63 upset win against Sam Houston State as a 5-point underdog yesterday afternoon. Western Kentucky (21-11) has won two games in a row after their 85-54 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTEP only made 43.7% of their shots yesterday — but they held the Bearkats to just 41.2% shooting while holding them to just 53 points. The Miners have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Conference USA opponent — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less this season. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 9 games played with one day or less of rest, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. UTEP only makes 41.3% of their shots on the road resulting in just 65.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.7% and -7.2 PPG below their season averages. They rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road which is the 262nd worst drop in the country. But the Miners also rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are giving up -1.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. A key dynamic for this contest is that UTEP leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. The Hilltoppers play at the fastest pace in the nation — but the pressure the Miners present will slow down their attack. Western Kentucky ranks 262nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. UTEP has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. Western Kentucky wants to build off their strong defensive effort yesterday after limiting the Blue Raiders to just 31.0% shooting in their 31-point victory. The Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. And while they made 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc yesterday, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. Western Kentucky has scored 85 or more points in their two tournament games this week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have scored at least 79 points in five straight games — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Hilltoppers’ fast pace makes Overs tempting when considering them but they only make 45.4% of their shots on the road resulting in 77.7 PPG — and those numbers are -1.4% and -3.0 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They are also giving up -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Western Kentucky has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Western Kentucky won on their home court by a 90-80 score on February 15th. The Miners have played 5 of their 6 opportunities to avenge an earlier loss this season Under the Total. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504) in the Semifinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama A&M (12-21) has won three of their last four games after their 75-63 upset victory against Alcorn State as a 3-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Wednesday. Texas Southern (15-15) has won six of their last seven contests after their 72-62 victory as a 3-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Alabama A&M has pulled off two straight upsets relying on their defense. After holding Southern University to 37.2% shooting last Saturday in their 66-56 victory, they limited Alcorn State to just a 37.0% field goal percentage in their upset victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. Alabama A&M has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contest. But the Bulldogs rank only 356th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Granted, we are talking about a SWAC team in what is not one of the strongest conferences in the nation. But they rank just 10th in the SWAC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they fall to 11th in that metric when playing on the road. They are making only 40.6% of their shots on the road including just 25.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 66.4 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But back to their defense which has held their last five opponents to 64.4 PPG from 39.7% shooting from the field — and those marks are -11.0 PPG and -2.7% below their season averages. They lead the SWAC by limiting their opponents to making only 41.7% of their shots inside the arc. SWAC opponents are making only 38.5% of their shots against them overall — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in conference play. Furthermore, Alabama A&M has played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas Southern comes off their best defensive game of the season after limiting Jackson State to a 32.3% shooting percentage yesterday. While I often think that is a mark screaming out for the Regression Gods, in this instance I suspect it is reflective of the tough defense this team has embraced under head coach Johnny Jones as they enter the postseason. That game finished Under the 140.5-point total — and the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their previous game. Texas Southern is second in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference in that metric when playing on the road. They also rank a very respectable 60th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. On the road, Texas Southern holds their opponents to -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But unfortunately for them, they also score -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They only make 39.3% of their shots including 29.1% of their 3-pointers away from home resulting in just 65.8 PPG — and those marks are -2.1% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. Their last five-game scoring numbers are up — but that comes from three games on their home court where they scored at least 79 points in each game while generating 84.0 PPG. But in their last three games away from home, they have not scored more than 77 points. The Tigers have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in conference play.      

FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern won the only previous meeting between these teams this season in an 85-69 victory at home. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (829) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (20-11) has won two straight games after their 74-70 victory against SMU as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Wichita State (15-18) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 71-65 upset victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point underdog in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB enters this tournament rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Blazers are one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country — they rank 22nd in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they led the American Athletic Conference by making 75.7% of their shots on the charity stripe. These team attributes travel — UAB scores +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 28th in the nation in their improvement when Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. Wichita State held the Tigers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three of their last four games so an emotional letdown this afternoon appears likely. Wichita State ranks only 205th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score -3.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 321st in the nation in the drop in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court when an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Wichita State won the only meeting between these two teams back on February 28th by a 74-66 score as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games playing with revenge including all four of those opportunities this season. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus Wichita State Shockers (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (19-11) has lost four games in a row after their 82-79 loss at Liberty as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. New Mexico State (13-18) has won two games in a row after their 77-70 win against Florida International as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky allowed the Flames to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They had not allowed an opponent to make 50% or more of their shots until their last two contests. The Hilltoppers have given up 82 or more points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they rank fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing -3.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. This is just their second game since March 2nd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. New Mexico State nailed made 44.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They rank 297th in the nation and last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Aggies scored 49 points in the first half of that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 45 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. Now they go back on the road where they have just one victory in 16 games — and they are getting outscored by -16.2 Points-Per-Game in those contests. New Mexico State only makes 40.5% of their shots including 25.5% of their 3-pointers on the road resulting in just 63.4 PPG. But the decline in defense when playing away from home is even more dramatic. They allow their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They rank 356th in the nation in the drop they experience in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against WAC rivals. Another intangible dragging this team down is that they rank 349th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and the Hilltoppers make 73.4% of their free throws. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games after Western Kentucky won the last meeting by a 72-58 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 17th. But the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games in conference tournament action. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year is with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Niagara (16-15) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 victory against Siena as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Marist (17-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 63-62 win against Niagara as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PURPLE EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Niagara should build off the momentum of their victory in the first round of this tournament on Tuesday — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by three points or less in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 12 road games when playing with one day or less of rest, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. The Purple Eagles are a good team away from home where they allow -10.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They also score +2.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. Overall, they rank third in the nation in the bump they receive in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from their home court. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and the Red Foxes rank ninth defensively in that category in conference play. Niagara has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Marist can struggle to score baskets — they rank 321st in the nation and ninth in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They held the Purple Eagles to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but the Red Foxes have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread only once in their last six games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Marist ranks 229th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin when playing away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in March.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with the Purple Eagles winning by five points in January. Niagara has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542) in the Championship Game of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (14-17) has won two games in a row — and seven of their last nine contests — after their 84-79 win in overtime at Boston University as a 2-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Sunday. Colgate (24-9) is on a four-game winning streak after their 68-65 victory against Bucknell as a 12-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Lehigh was terrible in the first half on the road against the Terriers as they fell behind by 21 points before going into the locker room trailing by 18 points. They only made 40.0% of their shots in that game which was terrible worst shooting effort in their last three games. But they nailed 12 shots from behind the arc, made 24 of their 30 shots at the charity stripe, and forced 16 turnovers in 20.8% of Boston University’s possessions to rally back and steal the game. With that lesson in hand, the Mountain Hawks should play much better tonight and not dig themselves such a hole. They have held their last five opponents to 41.7% shooting resulting in just 66.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -3.9 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks fourth in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Colgate held Bucknell to just 38.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But despite their four-game winning streak, the Raiders have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after two or more wins in a row where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Colgate is vulnerable even as a Patriot League giant because they do not create additional scoring possessions. They only pull down 23.6% of their missed shots in conference play and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and both those marks rank sixth in the Patriot League. They thrive by usually making the shots they take — but they were cold from behind the arc on Sunday as they made only 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. The Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their previous 4 games after failing to make more than 20% of their 3-pointers in their last game. They earned the right to host this game after winning the regular season crown — but they rank 246th in the nation in the drop Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their efficiency numbers when playing on the road. Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.  

FINAL TAKE: Colgate swept both meetings with the Mountain Hawks in the regular season — but both their victories were by just three points including a 60-57 escape at home as an 11-point favorite on January 22nd. The Raiders then won by a 63-60 score on March 2nd — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Tournament Game of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623) in the Championship Game of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (22-11) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests after their 74-71 victory against Cleveland State as a 3.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (20-14) has won six straight games after their 82-75 upset victory against Northern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog in their semifinal contest last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland should have covered the point spread last night — but rather than letting a flung half-court shot by the Vikings go uncontested the Grizzlies player fouled the Cleveland State shooter giving them three shots at the charity stripe. Even after that, Oakland covers the -3.5 if they hit their final free throw with only a second or two left in the game — but, nope. The Grizzlies still won that game despite only making 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oakland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win against a Horizon League rival by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oakland has a 12-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up win. They rank 11th in the nation with their improvement in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court when favored by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in tournament action. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 150s. Wisconsin-Milwaukee held the Norse to host 39.1% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Panthers still rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Panthers score -5.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 204th in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies make 45.0% of their shots — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams who make at least 45.0% of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland swept the two regular season games between these two teams after their 90-87 win on the road on January 27th — and the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Game of the Year with the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (23-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-51 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. Gonzaga (24-6) has won eight straight games after their 70-57 upset victory at Saint Mary’s as a 3.5-point underdog on March 2nd. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. They stepped up their play on defense by holding the Pilots to just 32.7% shooting — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55% of their shots in their last contest. Additionally, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points against a West Coast Conference rival. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. And they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They are making 45.7% of their shots on the road resulting in 71.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.3% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in those road games. But on the other end of the court, they are holding their opponents to just 42.2% shooting with a 32.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.9 PPG. The Dons rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to the eighth-best defense in the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on the road ranking 21st in the nation — and they are giving up -8.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Gonzaga made 51.7% of their shots against the Gaels which was the worst shooting effort in their alt three games — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have won six straight games by 13 or more points — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 13 games on the road after winning four or more games in a row, they have then played 11 of these games Under the Total. The Bulldogs are scoring 80.3 PPG away from home with a 49.6% field goal percentage — but those numbers are still -5.3 PPG and -2.3% below their season averages. They hold their opponents to 42.7% shooting and 69.9 PPG on the road — and they are giving up -3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. Interestingly, head coach Mark Few has his team playing at a slower pace lately — they are averaging 1.3 fewer possessions per game in their last ten games. The Dons are outscoring their opponents by +12.3 PPG — and Gonzaga has played 7 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:45 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W19-D5-L3) has won 13 of their last 14 matches across all competitions after their 3-1 victory at home against Manchester United in the English Premier League last Sunday. Liverpool has won seven matches in a row across all competitions including their 1-0 victory at Nottingham in the EPL last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: In the three-way race between these two clubs along with Arsenal to win the EPL title, Liverpool is likely the team whose prospects are dimmest moving forward. Granted, manager Jurgen Klopp is doing a great job with the Reds after they dropped to fifth place in the table after a disappointing 2022-23 campaign. But the Pool Boys have not been tested as much as those two other teams given their failure to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. Their 3-1 loss at Arsenal in the EPL action on February 4th is likely telling regarding where this club is relative to the elite squads in Europe. Injuries are not helping their cause in this one. Klopp is without eight players including Trent Alexander-Arnold who was thriving in a new role for the squad playing up as a midfielder rather than his defensive back role. The absences of midfielders Thiago Alcantara and Diogo Jota will also hurt in this showdown. Their outstanding keeper Alisson is also on the shelf — but they have been getting surprisingly good play from backup goaltender          Caoihin Kelleher — although this matchup is a huge challenge for him now. At least Mohamed Salah is back after getting injured during the African Cup in January — but his fitness is in question after playing his first match in a month on Thursday. Liverpool plays this match at a significant situational disadvantage having to travel back from the Czech Republic after a 5-1 victory at Sparta Prague on Thursday in the second-tier (relative to the Champions League) Europe League competition. The Reds have positional weaknesses at left wing and at right defensive back. And while they have only lost one match at home at Anfield in EPL action in their last  57 matches since fans returned post-COVID, their inability to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last nine at home across all competitions raises a red flag for this showdown. Finally, the deeper metrics indicate that the Pool Boys are overachieving in league play. While they have registered 63 points, the expected points deriving from expected goals data drops to just 53.03 points. The metrics suggest that they have been rather fortunate in goal suppression as they have given up only 25 goals despite a 33.78 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Now here comes Man City who lead the EPL with 31.95 expected goals on the road despite playing one less match than Liverpool and Arsenal. Now at their healthiest as they have been all season, the Citizens have scored 12 combined goals in their last three matches after their 3-1 triumph over FC Copenhagen in the Champions League on Wednesday. Kevin DeBruyne missed the first half of the season and has only returned to the pitch in mid-January. Erling Haaland also missed time in December and January. But since the Club World Cup in December, the reigning EPL and Champions League winners are clicking on all cylinders — and they have won ten straight matches on the road in all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: At full strength, Man City remains the best club in the world — and now they face a shorthanded Liverpool squad in a crucial match in the EPL title race. Manager Pep Guardiola has fared well in his tenure with the Citizens when facing Klopp. Since 2017, Man City has a W5-D3-L1 mark in the EPL against the Reds. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with  Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). THE SITUATION: Arizona (88-65) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 88-65 victory as a 9.5-point favorite as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. USC (13-17) has won two games in a row after their 81-73 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 51.9% of their shots against the Bruins which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 51.8% of their shots in their last five contests. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 90.3 Points-Per-Game. They have scored 85 or more points in four straight games as well as nine of their last 11 contests. But they have also allowed 75 or more points in five of their last eight contests as well. They play at a very fast pace — they average only 15.1 seconds per possession which is the eighth quickest mark in the nation. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while this is just their second game since February 28th, they have then played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. Arizona stays on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +4.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they are also giving up 80.6 PPG on the road — and the +8.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are giving up away from home represents the 342nd biggest jump in the nation. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. USC has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Trojans have scored 163 combined points in their last two games — and they are making 48.6% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 77.8 PPG. But they have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Sun Devils enjoyed a 50% shooting clip against them on Thursday. USC has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games.  They stay at home where they are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the Trojans rank 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total on their home court. USC has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona won the first meeting on January 17th by an 82-67 score as a 20.5-point favorite — and the Trojans have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). THE SITUATION: Rhode Island (11-19) has lost seven games in a row after their 69-57 loss at home to George Mason as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Fordham (12-18) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after a 66-64 loss at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Rhode Island made only 29.4% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting performance of their season. That game finished well Under the 142.5-point total — but these Rams have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Rhode Island has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots resulting in 84.0 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they rank 337th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots and 37.3% of their 3-pointers when on the road resulting in 81.9 PPG. They are surrendering +5.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road — but they are also scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home as well. They rank 35th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home — and Fordham allows their guests to make 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Rhode Island has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Rhode Island should also get plenty of points from the charity stripe as they lead the Atlantic 10 in free throw rate — and Fordham is last in the conference in putting their opponent on the line. Fordham has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Their loss against the Minutemen on Wednesday finished Under the 143-point Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Fordham ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they rank 222nd in the nation in that metric. They allow their opponents to guests to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 73.7 PPG — and they are giving up +9.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They are also scoring +3.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The hosting Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs at home when playing 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Fordham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-68 score as a 2.5-point underdog on January 24th — and Rhode Island has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Illinois (21-11) won for the fourth straight time with their 61-59 triumph against Tennessee State as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event yesterday. Arkansas-Little Rock (20-11) has won nine straight games after their 81-43 victory against Tennessee Tech as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO THE LEATHERNECKS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Illinois survived yesterday’s game despite making only 37.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Leathernecks controlled the boards with a 52-36 edge in rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. This team does two things well that usually translate to neutral courts. First, Western Illinois ranks 13th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots — and they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by rebounding 39.2% of their misses. They grabbed 19 second chances yesterday representing 45.2% of their missed shots. They should control the offensive glass tonight as well — the Trojans rank 227th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots. Second, the Leathernecks play great half-court defense. They rank 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. They also rank 20th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — so they make it very tough on their opponents to score points. Western Illinois has not allowed more than 65 points in their last two games — and they have ten covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have covered the points spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. They have an 11-6 record away from home where they are scoring +2.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions while holding their opponents to -4.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They rank 25th in the nation in their improved play away from home in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are holding teams to just 40.6% shooting including a 28.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.8 Points-Per-Game. Western Illinois ranks eighth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% when playing on the road. They hold these teams to just 46.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 21st in the nation — and they allow these opponents to make only 28.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking ninth in the nation. The Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against Ohio Valley Conference opponents. Little Rock held Tennessee Tech to just 30% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Trojans have scored at least 80 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning five or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or more games in a row. On the road, they have a 6-7 record while making 46.0% of their shots. They only hit 30.0% of the 3-pointers away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. They score -2.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. But the bigger concern is on the other end of the court where they allow +7.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home. They rank 335th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Little Rock won the first meeting between these two teams in a 63-60 upset win as a 1.5-point road underdog back on February 28th — but the Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-17) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 78-71 loss at Oregon as a 13.5-point underdog last Thursday. Utah (18-11) has won three of their last four games after their 88-59 victory against California as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Ducks to make 49.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now after playin' their last three games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +5.6 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home — and they are giving up -8.8 points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. Oregon State ranks eighth in the nation in the bump up in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they are playing on their home court. The Beavers hold their opponents to just 41.1% shooting and a 30.9% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.6 Points-Per-Game. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah nailed 50.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 contests. They also held the Golden Bears to 34.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. After playing one of their best games of the season, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread only once in their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 4-9 record with an average losing margin of -7.9 PPG. Utah is only making 43.5% of their shots on the road including just 32.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 71.3 PPG. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.8% of their shots including 38.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 79.2 PPG. The Utes are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in true road games. Utah ranks 171st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 55.2% ranks 319th in the nation. Furthermore, they rank 361st in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games in conference play. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as a favorite or a pick ‘em.  

FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams at home at Salt Lake City by a 74-47 score as a 15-point favorite. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 game games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). THE SITUATION: Utah State (24-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six after their 72-60 victory against Air Force as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. San Jose State (9-21) has lost five games in a row after their 68-50 loss at UNLV as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies rank 11th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they lead the Mountain West Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Utah State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win at home by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 60 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 76.4 Points-Per-Game while giving up 72.5 PPG. They rank second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but sit just eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they are giving up +8.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road in hostile environments. The Aggies have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss where they did not score more than 60 points — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. And while their loss to the Runnin’ Rebels finished Under the 138.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Spartans return home where they are nailing 47.8% of their shots resulting in 76.1 PPG — and those marks represent a +6.2 PPG and a +3.1% bump over their season averages. But they are also allowing their guests to make 47.4% of their shots including 39.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG which is +2.2 PPG higher than their season defensive average. San Jose State scores +8.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions when at home which ranks 29th in the nation in the biggest jump. They also allow +4.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home, ranking 307th worst in the country. The Spartans have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: San Jose State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation as they rank 281st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 331st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% which does not bode well against a great shooting team like the Aggies. Utah State made 60% of their shots including a 6 of 12 mark from behind the arc en route to their 82-61 victory against the Spartans at home on January 30th — and San Jose State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Eastern Kentucky (17-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-67 loss at Lipscomb as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Jacksonville (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak before their 92-86 upset win at Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins broke out by making 50.0% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. They nailed 13 of their 21 shots 61.9% from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. That performance was well out of character for this Jacksonville team that ranks last in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and their 47.3% effective field goal percentage. They rank 281st in the nation by making only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I hate the situation the Dolphins are now in having to travel from Georgia to Kentucky without a day of rest as this tournament continues. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Dolphins are just 3-13 away from home — and they rank 330th in the nation and last in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Net Efficiency in hostile environments. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They face an angry Eastern Kentucky team that only made 39.7% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Eastern Kentucky returns where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They rank 203rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court (not bad for a low mid-major) while leading the Atlantic Sun in that metric. They are scoring 87.1 PPG at home from 48.7% shooting from the field and a 38.4% clip from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Dolphins play pretty good defense — but they rank 313th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Eastern Kentucky ranks third in the conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They also lead the Atlantic Sun with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7%.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville wants to avenge a 75-59 loss at Eastern Kentucky as an 11-point underdog on January 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Northern Arizona (14-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 85-58 loss at Weber State as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado (18-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 81-79 upset victory against Idaho State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LUMBERJACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Arizona only made 31.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The Lumberjacks should bounce back tonight — they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss to a Big Sky Conference rival including five of those last seven circumstances this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-4 record this season while holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting including a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Northern Arizona plays solid half-court defense when playing at home — they rank fourth in the Big Sky with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9% on their home court and they rank in the top-four in both 3-point defense and 2-point defense at home in conference play. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Head coach Shane Burcar led his team to a big March run last year — they reached the Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship Game despite a 5-13 record in conference play in the regular season. Under Burcar, Northern Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 47 games as an underdog. They now host a Northern Colorado team that is a vulnerable road favorite. The Bears rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and they rank eighth in the Big Sky in that category when on the road. They have a 7-9 record on the road while getting outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 81.9 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots including 37.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 287th in the nation when assessing play on the road. They rank 304th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They made 60.0% of their shots on Saturday against the Bengals which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They have scored 81 points in two straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are vulnerable against good offensive rebounding teams — but that is not the Bears who rank 307th in the nation in that category. And while Northern Arizona only makes 43.6% of their shots, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are not making more than 45% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Arizona looks to avenge a 92-87 loss at Northern Colorado on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (19-11) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 78-77 upset loss at home against Gardner-Webb as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Radford (15-15) had their two-game winning streak end in a 58-57 upset loss at Charleston Southern as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots in their loss last week which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. UNC-Asheville has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after an upset loss to a Big South rival. And while that game with Gardner-Webb finished Over the 1553.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last contest. The Bulldogs lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9% — and they rank 22nd in the nation by making 37.5% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 75.9 Points-Per-Game -- fueled by the sixth-best free throw rate when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 47th in the nation by making 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. But UNC-Asheville ranks 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 307th in that nation in that metric when playing on the road in hostile environments. The adjusted +8.3 points per 100 possessions they allow in hostile environments represents the 339th worst spike in the country. They are giving up 78.8 PPG in those games. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. The Highlanders make 46.5% of their shots — and UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams making 45% or more of their shots. Radford made only 41.8% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They still rank third in the Big South in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five games. More surprisingly, they held Charleston Southern to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Highlanders rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in the Big South in that category. Radford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they are scoring 76.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting — and those marks are +3.4 PPG and +3.0% above their season average. The Highlanders rank 14th in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court. But they also rank 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and the +5.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions they allow represents the 318th biggest jump when assessing home court play. Radford has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Bulldogs average eight made 3s per game, the Highlanders have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.

FINAL TAKE: Radford has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (7-23) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 89-64 loss at Appalachian State as a 14.5-point underdog on  Wednesday. Georgia Southern (7-23) has won two of their last three games after their 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Old Dominion plays at a fast pace — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per Game while ranking 46th in their Average Possession Length. They have been playing even quicker in conference play as they lead the Sun Belt with 72.5 Adjusted Possessions per Game while averaging 16.2 Seconds per Possession. The Monarchs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Old Dominion ranks 214th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to ranking 312th in the nation in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Furthermore, they rank 233rd in the nation in their drop in Adjusted Net Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.3% of their shots resulting in 82.5 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 73.2 PPG in those road games. The Monarchs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rises by 5.5 points when they are playing in hostile environments — and that bump ranks as the 38th biggest jump in the nation. Old Dominion has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their games. Georgia Southern played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Thundering Herd to 73 points. The Eagles rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But by making 56.9% of their shots in that game on Wednesday, they made at least 50.9% of their shots for the third time in their last four games. Georgia Southern has scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 80.0 PPG. They have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. They have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a victory by ten or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they are making 47.1% of their shots including 41.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.5 PPG. They are scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and that rise in efficiency is the sixth largest for home courts in the nation. Georgia Southern has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.   

FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion only makes 41.9% of their shots but they average 62 shot attempts per game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). THE SITUATION: Towson (17-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-56 loss to the College of Charleston as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina A&T (7-22) has lost seven straight games after their 83-67 loss at Monmouth as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers allowed the Cougars to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games — and the 72 points they gave up was the most they had allowed in five straight contests. Towson still leads the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting from the field resulting in only 61.4 Points-Per-Game. The Tigers should tighten things up on defense tonight — they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 15 or more points. But Towson can struggle to score points. They rank 227th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are just eighth in the conference in that category. They go back on the road where they are only making 38.4% of their shots resulting in just 62.3 PPG. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored by double-digits. UNC A&T only made 28.3% of their shots on Saturday — but that was only their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last five games in a span where they have not shot better than 38.2% from the field. In their last five games, the Aggies are making only 32.4% of their shots resulting in just 57.6 PPG. They are last in the Colonial Athletic Association and 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The 67 points they scored was their highest total in their last nine contests. UNC A&T has then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 45.1% shooting resulting in 68.5 PPG — and those marks are -3.2% and -9.7 PPG lower than their season averages. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams can shoot the basketball. Towson ranks 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.7% and UNC A&T ranks 355th with an eFG of 44.2%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and the Aggies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (21-6) has won five of their last six games after their 71-64 victory against West Virginia as an 18-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (84-82) snapped a two-game losing streak in an 84-82 upset win in overtime at Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State was flat against the Mountaineers over the weekend as they allowed them to make 47.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Despite that performance, the Cyclones still rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. And while this is just their second game since last Monday, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when play for the second time in eight or more days. The Cyclones stay at home where they have a 16-0 record with an average winning margin of +25.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Net Efficiency Margin when looking only at home court advantages. They are making 49.9% of their shots at home including 39.1% of their 3-pointers which is the 32nd-best mark in the nation — resulting in 82.9 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting including a 31.2% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 57.1 PPG. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.0% of their opponent’s possessions — and they should force plenty of turnovers against this Sooners team that ranks 222nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 17.7% of their possessions. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. Oklahoma nailed 50.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their previous games this season after pulling off an upset victory. Oklahoma did allow the Cowboys to make 57.4% of their shots in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after giving up 80 or more points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have a 6-5 record with an average losing margin of -1.1 PPG — but their drop in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing in a hostile environment presents the 243rd biggest discrepancy in the nation relative to their play at home. They only make 44.9% of their shots on the road in hostile environments including just 29.4% of their 3-pointers which is the 306th lowest mark in the nation. Oklahoma ranks 206nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 48.4% — and that drop compared to their eFG when at home or on a neutral court of -6.8% is the 332nd biggest discrepancy in the nation. On defense, the Sooners are allowing +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing in a hostile environment which is the 344th worst discrepancy versus their defensive efficiency at home or on a neutral court. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (18-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 79-64 victory at Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Clemson (19-8) has won five of their last six games with their 74-63 win against Florida State as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers held the Hokies to just 40.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court — especially in the interior where they rank 13th in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 53.3% of their 2-point shots. And in their true road games, they allow their home hosts to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 329th in the nation.  The Tigers' big man P.J. Hall should have a big night — he is scoring 18.7 Points-Per-Game while making more than 68% of his shots in the paint. Clemson ranks 38th in the nation by making 54.4% of their shots inside the arc. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points on their home court. Additionally, while Pitt has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Panthers rank just eighth in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. But Pitt can put up points as they take advantage of most of their possessions and launch tons of 3s. They rank 18th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.2% of their possessions. They also rank 25th in the nation by taking 45.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they are scoring 72.9 PPG — and they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring +9.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road when compared to their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 41.4% shooting, Pitt has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. Clemson held the Seminoles to just 36.9% shooting on Saturday on the heels of limiting Georgia Tech to a 30.2% field goal percentage last Wednesday — but they have then played 6 straight Overs after holding their last two opponents to no higher than 37% shooting. They only made 44.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Tigers are still making 49.8% of their shots in their also five games — and they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Clemson has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a double-digit win at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they are allowing +1.9 more points per possession per 100 possessions in adjusted numbers — and that number ranks 245th in the largest home/road discrepancy. They are scoring 80.3 PPG at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, Clemson has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in February. And while the Panthers are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh looks to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Clemson as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 3rd — and they have played 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. The Panthers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). THE SITUATION: Coppin State (2-22) has lost eight games in a row after their 68-66 loss to Norfolk State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Howard (12-15) has won three of their last four games after their 78-72 victory against Morgan State as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are far away from being one of the best teams in college basketball — and it starts with their offense where they rank last in Division I in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank third to the bottom in Division I with their effective field goal percentage of 40.3. They only made 32.7% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss — and while I like to fade outlier shooting efforts like that in a team’s next game, that shooting performance was only tied for their sixth-lowest mark of the season. Coppin State has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They only scored 24 points in the first half on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where the adjusted efficiency numbers project them to score -10.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do when playing at home. They are only making 36.0% of their shots away from home including 26.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 53.3 Points-Per-Game. Coppin State has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. If there is one thing that the Eagles do well, it is force turnovers — they rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Bison are vulnerable in this area since they turn the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 350th in the nation. Taking away Howard’s scoring opportunities should keep the score of this game down. Coppin State also plays at a slow pace — their games average 66.4 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Howard has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to just 42.9% shooting including a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. And while the Bison are a good shooting team at home, they are going to lose possessions to this Eagles team because they turn the ball over in 22.4% of their possessions when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Howard has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have been favored by double-digits three previous times this season — and all three games finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Howard won the first meeting between these two teams on January 29th by an 81-66 score — but Coppin State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Eagles have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). THE SITUATION: Wright State (16-12) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 93-78 victory at Detroit Mercy as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday.  Oakland (19-10) has won four games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 63-43 win at Robert Morris as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders nailed 53.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the fifth time in their last six games where they shot 50% or better from the field — and they have scored 85 or more points in four of their last five games. But they allowed the Titans to make 51.7% of their shots which was the third time in their last four games where their opponents made at least 50% of their shots. Wright State is an Over Machine because they shoot great and play at a fast pace but can’t stop anybody on the other end. The Raiders rank second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% — and they rank in the top 11 in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. But they also rank 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponents post a 56.6% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking 354th in the nation. Wright State ranks 28th in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession — and they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Raiders have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three contests. While this is their second game since last Saturday, they have also played 11 straight Overs when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay on the road where they average slightly more 73.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 17th in the nation. They make 51.8% of their shots on the road along with 41.0% of their 3-pointers (which leads the nation) resulting in 85.1 Points-Per-Game. But they allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 84.0 PPG. Wright State has played 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Oakland only made 34.5% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst shooting of the season — but they also held the Colonials to just 28.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort of their campaign. While that final score flew Under the 147-point total, the Grizzlies have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have played 15 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after winning four games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they made 47.6% of their shots including 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 82.2 PPG. They also average 69.2 adjusted possessions per game at home which is +1.9 possessions above their season average. But the Grizzlies defense takes a step back when they are playing at home. While Oakland ranks 146th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second in Horizon League play, those numbers drop to 253rd in the nation and eighth in the conference when they are playing at home. The collapse comes from their interior defense as they allow their guests to make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 308th in the nation — and Wright State ranks ninth in the nation by making 56.4% of their 2-pointers when playing away from home. Oakland has played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total in February.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders want to avenge a 74-60 upset loss at home to Oakland back on February 10th in their worst shooting game of the season where they made only 33.8% of their shots including just 5 of their 28 (17.9%) shots from behind the arc. Wright State has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (12-17) has won two games in a row after their 89-70 victory at Pacific as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Francisco (21-7) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss at Saint Mary’s as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Waves held Pacific to just 41.9% shooting on Wednesday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last eight games. But Pepperdine continues to struggle with their half-court defense as they rank 350th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.2% — and they allow their opponents to make 54.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 327th. The Wave have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They have averaged a whopping 90 points in their last two games with both those contests combining for 160 points — and they have played 7 straight Overs after playing two games in a row where 155 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they allow their opponents to make 53.6% of their shots resulting in 84.4 Points-Per-Game. Pepperdine allows their opponents to nail 48.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 362nd in the nation. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 60.4% away from home ranks 362nd in the country. The Wave have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. They should be able to generate offense against the Dons tonight by getting to the free-throw line. Pepperdine ranks second in the West Coast Conference in getting to the charity stripe — and San Francisco ranks 295th in the nation and ninth in the West Coast Conference in putting their opponents on the line. The Wave have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has played 6 straight Overs at home after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dons are one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 19th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. Led by 6’9 Jonathan Mogbo, they should have their way inside against the weak interior defense of the Wave as they rank eighth in the nation by making 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. After playing their last two games on the road, San Francisco returns home where they make 52.1% of their shots resulting in 84.7 PPG. They also rank 50th in the nation by nailing a healthy 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco won the first meeting between these two teams by an 80-74 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 8th. Pepperdine has played 21 of their opportunities for revenge Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). THE SITUATION: UMBC (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 62-56 loss at Maine as a 4.5-point underdog. New Hampshire (15-10) has won two of their last three games in an 83-78 victory against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RETRIEVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Baltimore Country only made 37.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 26 contests. Despite that disappointing performance, the Retrievers still lead the America East Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 31st in the nation with their 53.1% effective field goal percentage. UMBC generates good looks at the basket when playing away from home because they play at a blistering pace — they rank second in the nation by averaging only 14.4 seconds per possession. They also rank seventh in the country by averaging 73.4 adjusted possessions per game. While the Retrievers have just a 4-9 record in conference play, seven of their losses have been by six points or less — and two of those losses were by just two points or less. UMBC should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after a straight-up loss this season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss to an American East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 160s. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. New Hampshire nailed 53.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort of the season. The Wildcats converted 11 of their 27 (40.7%) of their 3-pointers in that game — but now they play a UMBC team that ranks 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. New Hampshire has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing with just one day of rest. The Wildcats rank just eighth in the American East in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing at home in conference play — and UMBC ranks fourth in the conference in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road against American East foes. New Hampshire is only making 44.3% of their shots including 34.6% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This team also plays at a fast pace — they rank 26th in the nation by averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession and they rank 21st by averaging 71.2 adjusted possessions per game. But New Hampshire tends to underachieve against similar fast-paced teams. UMBC averages 64 shots per game — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch 62 or more shots per game. On the other hand, while New Hampshire averages 62 shots per game, the Retrievers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who take 62 or more shots per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats did win the first meeting between these two teams in a 64-58 win on the road as a 3-point favorite on January 20th — but UMBC has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB American East Underdog of the Year with the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (25) and the Chicago Blackhawks (26). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (34-15-5) has won four of their last five games after their 6-3 victory against Minnesota on Tuesday. Chicago (15-39-3) has lost two games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after a 3-1 loss against Philadelphia on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets lead the NHL in goals allowed when playing at five-on-five full strength. It all starts with goalie Conner Hellebuyck who is on pace to win another Vezina Trophy. He has a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 40 games — and he has a 2.21 GAA and a .927 save percentage in five starts this month. Winnipeg has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a win by three or more goals. They have also played 22 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a win where they scored more than five goals. The Jets have scored three or more goals in three straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in three or more games in a row. Winnipeg goes back on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or lower. They have also played 10 straight Unders against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Furthermore, the Jets hold Central Division rivals to only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game. Chicago is last in the NHL by scoring just 2.07 Goals-Per-Game. They only have two players who have generated 30 or more points — and just four of their players have 20 or more points on the season. In their last five games, they are scoring only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they are scoring just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game against division rivals. The Blackhawks have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They have also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have lost their last two games by multiple goals, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row by two or more goals. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5 or lower. And while the Jets are outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game, Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. Petr Mrazek is their confirmed goaltender tonight — and he has been very good when playing at home where he has a 2.47 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 20 starts.

FINAL TAKE: There have been only ten combined goals in the previous three meetings between these Central Division rivals this season. Winnipeg won the last meeting between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 11th — and the Blackhawks have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (25) and the Chicago Blackhawks (26). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (14-13) saw their three-game snapped in a 73-72 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Cleveland State (16-11) has won two of their last three games after an 81-73 upset win against Youngstown State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a Horizon League rival. The Norse have still covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. This team leads the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and they force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on their home court. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return to play for just the second time since last Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when playing for the second time in eight days. Northern Kentucky has a 10-3 record at home with an average winning margin of +11.2 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 44.4% shooting at home including a 29.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.5 PPG. They also rank 56.6% of their shots inside the arc at home which ranks 49th in the nation — and they are making 48.9% of their shots at home overall resulting in 80.7 PPG. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing their last two games on the road. Cleveland State held the Penguins to just 43.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. They also nailed 53.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games and tied for their best effort in their last 20 contests. But the Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, while they have won four of their last six games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their defense falters — they rank 328th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Of particular concern is their interior defense when playing Northern Kentucky — they allow their opponents to make 57.8% of their shots inside the arc when on the road, ranking 351st in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 36.5% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation. The Norse pull down a solid 31.9% of their misses when playing at home. Cleveland State has a 4-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -4.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 77.6 PPG. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to six points or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have 9-7 records in the Horizon League — but Cleveland State won the first meeting between these teams by an 88-85 score at home as a 4.5-point favorite on January 7th. The Norse have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). THE SITUATION: Samford (23-4) was on a six-game winning streak before their 88-84 upset loss at Mercer as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Furman (15-12) has won three games in a row with their 82-65 victory against UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Samford might be coming off their worst-played game of the season. They allowed the Bears to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. They also only made 43.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests — and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 25 games. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Southern Conference opponent. The Bulldogs should shoot much better tonight as they rank sixth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. While they rank 27th in the nation with their shooting inside the arc, their 40.5% clip from behind the arc is the best mark in the country. Samford combines this excellent shooting by playing at a very fast pace. They rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per game — and they are sixth in the nation by averaging only 15.0 seconds per possession. Additionally, the Bulldogs push the pace by pressing on defense — they rank 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents' possessions. After scoring 170 combined points in their last two games, Samford has scored at least 75 points in seven straight contests. They have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in five or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more combined points. They return home where they have a 15-0 record with an average winning margin of +21.2 Points-Per-Game. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to just 43.1% shooting when playing at home — but they are nearly unstoppable on the other end of the court. They are making 52.4% of their shots on their home court including a nation-leading 43.9% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Samford has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. They have also covered the point spread in expected high-scoring games where the Total is set at 160 or higher. Furman played their best defensive game of the season on Sunday by holding the Moccasins to just 33.9% shooting. And while the Paladins do a good job in defending the perimeter, they rank 332nd in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 56.1% of their shots inside the arc. Furman had not covered the point spread in six straight games before their triumph against Chattanooga — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-10 while allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots and score 80.8 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Paladins only make 42.6% of their shots including just 32.4% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 77.9 PPG. Furman scores 80.0 PPG this season — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams scoring 77.0 or more PPG. The Paladins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Furman won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-68 score back on January 24th — but Samford has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. The Paladins are outscoring their opponents by +4.5 PPG — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year is with the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (24) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (23). THE SITUATION: Vegas (31-16-6) had won two games in a row before their 5-3 loss to Minnesota on Monday. Carolina (31-17-5) has won three of their last four games after their 5-1 win at Arizona last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas has been playing better lately as they had won four of five games before their loss to the Wild to begin the week. Despite being without Shea Theodore and now Jack Eichel, they are still scoring 3.36 Goals-Per-Game in their last 11 contests since Eichel’s injury, ranking ninth in the NHL over that span. The Golden Knights have won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have won 18 of their last 26 games after a loss at home by two or more goals. Additionally, they have won 13 of their last 20 games after winning two of their last three games. Vegas has been tough when playing on home ice at the Fortress — they have a 19-6-2 record at home this season. Adin Hill is expected to be their starting goaltender tonight. He has a 1.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .937 save percentage when playing at home this season. And while the Hurricanes are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 Goals-Per-Game, the Golden Knights have won 12 of their last 16 games against opponents outscoring their opponents by +0.3 or more Goals-Per-Game. Carolina has lost 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while this is their third game on the road since Tuesday, they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. The Hurricanes are at a situational disadvantage playing this game without rest against a Vegas team that has not played since Monday. Spencer Martin appears to be their goaltender tonight to make his second start for the team after getting acquired from Columbus. In his six games (five starts) on the road, he has been saddled with a 3.95 GAA and a .874 save percentage. The Hurricanes are outstanding at home where they have a 17-6-4 record — but they are just 13-11-1 on the road. The Golden Knights average 31.2 shots per game — and Carolina has lost 26 of their last 42 games on the road in the second half of the season against teams who average 29.5 or more shots per game.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas wants to avenge a 6-3 loss at Carolina on December 19th — and they have won 45 of their last 62 games when playing with revenge. They have also won 22 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge from a loss by two or more goals — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss where they gave up five or more goals. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the Vegas Golden Knights (24) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (23). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (18-8) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 76-61 win at The Citadel as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Wofford (15-11) has won two in a row and three of their last four contests after their 73-60 upset win at Mercer as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held the Bulldogs to just 39.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But UNC-Greensboro remains a below-average defensive team — they rank seventh in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But what this team does well is shoot 3s — they rank eighth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, in their last ten contests, they are nailing 42.3% of their 3-pointers, ranking third in the country. The Spartans have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 26 of their last 39 games on the road Over the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Their game against The Citadel finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are making 37.9% of their 3-pointers to help them score 72.1 Points-Per-Game. UNC-Greensboro has played 28 of their last 42 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Wofford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Terriers have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Wofford converted 10 of their 24 (41.7%) of their shots from behind the arc against the Bears on the heels of nailing 11 of their 26 (42.3%) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. And while the Terriers have not allowed more than 64 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. Despite these recent results, Wofford is not a great defensive team — they rank eighth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even worse for this matchup, they rank 329th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and conference rivals are nailing 37.5% of their 3s. UNC-Greensboro makes 10 shots from distance per game from 25 shots from behind the arc on average. The Terriers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more 3s per game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against opponents who make eight or more shots from behind the arc per game. Wofford is a good shooting team as well — they rank 38th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They return home where they are making 50.1% of their shots including 37.9% of their 3s resulting in 82.5 PPG. The Terriers have played 15 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans won the first meeting between these two teams by an 82-59 score as a 6-point home favorite back on January 20th — and Wofford has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). THE SITUATION: Siena (4-20) snapped their seven-game losing streak in a 68-63 victory at Manhattan as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Saint Peter’s (11-11) has lost four games in a row after their 64-62 loss to Fairfield as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only made 41.5% of their shots against the Jaspers — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last four games. They had not scored more than 61 points in their previous six games — and they only topped 52 points in five of those six contests. Siena is one of the worst-scoring teams in the country. They rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 353rd of the 362 teams in Division I with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. To make matters worse, they turn the ball over in 24.4% of their possessions, ranking second to last in the nation — so they do not even get a shot off in one of every four possessions. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while their game with Manhattan finished far below the 139.5 point total, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Siena stays on the road where they are only making 41.9% of their shots and 21.9% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points including five of these last six circumstances. Saint Peter’s made 41.8% of their shots against the Stags last week which was their best shooting performance in their last six contests — they had not made more than 38.3% of their shots in their previous five games. The Peacocks rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 355th with an effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. But this team can play defense — they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking second in that metric in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Critical in this matchup, they rank 24th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponents’ possessions — so Siena is likely to struggle to score much more than even 50 points in this one. Saint Peter’s has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have outshot their last two opponents by 11 and 14 attempts — and they played 19 of their last 21 games Under the Total after attempting at least 10 more shots from the field than their opponent in two straight games. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. Uncharacteristically, they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots from the field — but now they stay at home where they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while limiting their guests to only 63.7 PPG. But the Peacocks’ offense is even worse at home where they rank 359th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their 42.0% effective field goal percentage. Saint Peter’s makes only 37.1% of their shots including 29.9% of their 3-pointers when playing at home resulting in just 65.2 PPG. The Peacocks have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints average 67.0 adjusted possessions per game which is below the 67.7 national average — and the 18.6 seconds per possession that average ranks 307th in the nation. The Peacocks rank 341st in the nation in both their 63.8 adjusted possessions per game and the 19.4 seconds per possession they average. These two teams played on January 28th when Saint Peter’s won by a 63-52 score as a 10-point favorite — and Siena has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (11-14) has won three games in a row after their 68-65 victory as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Eastern Washington (16-8) has won three in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests after their 87-79 loss to Idaho as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — and they rank 19th in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. They should pour on the points tonight against a Bengals defense that ranks 273rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 332nd in the nation. Eastern Washington has scored 78 or more points in three straight games along with 177 combined points in their last two contests. The Eagles have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. They stay at home where they make 55.0% of their shots including 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 89.7 Points-Per-Game. Eastern Washington has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Idaho State has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. The Bengals had covered the point spread in their four previous contests — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Idaho State goes back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in February. They have also played 21 of their last 27 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Bengals have also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played four of their five games this season.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Eastern Washington’s 79-67 win on the road as a 5.5-point favorite on January 20th — and Idaho State has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). THE SITUATION: Lehigh (8-15) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 94-90 win in double overtime against Lafayette as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Bucknell (10-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 77-62 upset loss at home against Boston University as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lehigh survived two overtimes on Saturday despite allowing the Leopards to make 55.6% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. This is Lehigh’s third game since Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing their third game in seven days. This team appears to be finding itself under Dr. Brett Reed in his 17th year as the head coach. His team got hot in the second half of conference play last year with the Mountain Hawks finishing tied for second place in the Patriot League. While Lehigh has just a 5-7 record in conference play this season, they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Mountain Hawks are 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots. They also lead in the Patriot League in getting to the free throw line and in making 73.6% of their shots at the charity stripe — and now they play a Bison team that ranks ninth in the league in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 road games after playing their last two games at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Lehigh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Bucknell averages 53 shots per game — and the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games against teams who do not attempt more than 53 shots per game. Lehigh has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a losing record after 15 games into the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. The Bison have a 7-5 record in the Patriot League — and they rank third in Adjusted Efficiency Margin under rookie head coach John Griffin III. But Bucknell has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss — as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by double-digits. The Bison rank eighth in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions — and Lehigh ranks second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 17.8% of their opponents' possessions. Griffin has yet to re-establish a home-court advantage for Bucknell as they have just a 4-7 record at home while getting outscored by -3.6 net Points-Per-Game. The Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Lehigh wants to avenge an 86-80 upset loss at home against Bucknell as a 5-point favorite on January 10th. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 opportunities for revenge this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams.  They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT:

I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.

BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).

Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).

Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.

BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:

(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.

(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.

Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: Bradley (17-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Evansville as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday. Drake (19-5) has won three of their last four games after their 92-88 win against Southern Illinois as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINTS: Bradley only made 42.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Braves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a Missouri Valley Conference rival. It was a rare bad day at the offense for this team regarding shooting the basketball — they rank 12th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%. They also rank 16th in the nation by nailing 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they lead the Missouri Valley Conference by making 39.6% of their 3-pointers in conference play. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 10-2 record with an average winning margin of +13.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 49.3% of their shots at home resulting in 79.2 PPG. They are also playing well on the other end of the court where they are holding their guests to just 40.6% shooting resulting in 65.4 PPG. Bradley has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 38 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. Drake made 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference river. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a win where they scored 80 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road where they won straight-up but did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Drake is second in the nation in defensive rebounding — but they will be challenged by the Braves who lead the Missouri Valley by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs’ defense takes a step back when they are playing on the road. Their opponents sport an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% when they are playing away from home, ranking 238th in the nation — and Drake ranks no higher than 215th in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting when they are away from home. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog overall.

FINAL TAKE: This is Bradley’s first opportunity to play Drake since their 77-51 loss to them as a 2-point underdog in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March 5th which cost them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Braves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). THE SITUATION: Kennesaw State (13-11) has lost five games in a row after their 85-69 loss at Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Lipscomb (15-10) has won two games in a row after their 90-88 win against Queens University as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls scored their fewest points in 22 contests in their loss on Thursday. Kennesaw State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss against an Atlantic Sun rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Owls rank 320th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have given up at least 85 points in five straight games. Kennesaw State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 81.5 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing their opponents to make 48.0% of their shots including 36.8% of their 3-pointers away from home which is resulting in 86.1 Points-Per-Game. Kennesaw State has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Lipscomb has scored 81 or more points in seven of their last nine games after nailing 52.2% of their shots on Thursday — and that was the fifth time in their last seven games that have shot 51.7% or better from the field. But the Bisons allowed the Royals to shoot 50% from the field as well which was the fifth time in their last seven games where their opponent shot 50% or better. In their last five games, their opponents are making 50.3% of their shots resulting in 81.4 PPG. Lipscomb has played 7 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after playing at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. On their home court, the Bisons are making 54.8% of their shots and 42.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.9 PPG. But they are giving up 77.1 PPG when playing at home where they rank 358th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Lipscomb has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is approaching the 170 mark for good reasons — both of these teams struggled to play defense while Kennesaw State plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Owls lead the nation by only averaging 14.0 seconds per possession. They rank sixth in the nation with 73.9 adjusted average possessions per game — and that mark rises to 76.3 adjusted possessions per game when away from home, ranking second in the nation. Lipscomb plays at above-average pace as well — so they will be happy to accommodate the fast pace given how good they are on offense. The Bisons rank 62nd in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession. They rank 108th in the nation with 69.0 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 70.6 adjusted possessions per game when they are playing at home. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (13-10) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 85-76 loss at North Florida as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Jacksonville (11-11) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 63-43 upset win against Austin Peay as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BISONS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 4-4 record in the Atlantic Sun Conference, Lipscomb still ranks as the top team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margins of Ken Pomeroy — and they have an impressive victory against Florida State this season. The Bisons have been resilient after losses this season — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They need to tighten up on defense after allowing 85 and 80 points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +18.0 net Points-Per-Game. Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last six boarded home games this season. They are holding their guests to just 41.6% shooting resulting in 75.1 PPG. But it is the Bison’s shooting on their home court that sets them apart. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.7% when playing at home — they are nailing 55.1% of their shots resulting in 93.1 PPG when in front of their home fans. Lipscomb is second in the Atlantic Sun by hitting 40.3% of their 3-pointers — and they rank third in the nation by converting 45.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. They should make a ton of 3s this afternoon against this Dolphins team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 352nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert 39.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Jacksonville made 47.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games — and by holding the Governors to 34.0% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive performance in their last 11 contests. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Jacksonville leads the conference by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — but the Bisons protect their defensive glass by limiting their conference opponents to rebounding just 24.3% of their misses, ranking second in the Atlantic Sun. The Dolphins stay on the road where they have a 3-10 record with an average losing margin of -15.6 net PPG. They only make 42.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 67.2 PPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s — and Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year with the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (8-13) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after an 85-82 loss in overtime at UL-Monroe as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Southern Mississippi (12-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-67 loss at Marshall as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State only made 32.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-worst shooting effort of the season and their worst effort in 16 games. Under head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four of their last five games. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Red Wolves return home for the first time since January 13th where they have a 5-2 record along with an average winning margin of +9.4 Points-Per-Game. On their home court is where Hodgson’s offensive attack explodes — the former assistant for Nate Oats at Alabama has his team rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Arkansas State makes 50.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.4 PPG which is +10.1 PPG above their season average. Hodgson plays the math game by having his team take 46.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 24th in the nation. Arkansas State ranks second in the conference by making 37.1% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 17th in the nation by hitting 42.3% of their shots from behind the arc when at home. They should hit plenty of 3-pointers against this Golden Eagles squad that ranks 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Wolves should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they rank 63rd in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and Southern Mississippi allows their opponents to rebound 31.4% of their missed shots, ranking 272nd in the nation. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 road games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. Southern Mississippi lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with the Red Wolves when they are playing at home. The Golden Eagles rank 12th in the Sun Belt by making only 46.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have scored less than 70 points in four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have a 5-8 record while getting outscored by -6.5 PPG. Southern Mississippi makes only 42.4% of their shots on the road resulting in only 69.5 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State is looking to avenge a 69-66 upset loss at Southern Mississippi as a 3-point underdog on January 17th. The Red Wolves get this rematch at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (61) and the St. Louis Blues (62). THE SITUATION: Columbus (15-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss at Seattle on Sunday. St. Louis (26-20-2) has won five games in a row after their 4-3 victory against Los Angeles on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues have scored four goals in four straight games — but they have also conceded three goals in each of their last four games during their current winning streak. Since Drew Bannister took over for Craig Berube as head coach on December 13th, St, Louis has scored 2.95 Goals-Per-Game in those 19 games which is right at their 2.9 Goals-Per-Game average for the season. But they are surrounding 4.0 Goals-Per-Game since Bannister took over which is well above their 3.2 Goals-Per-Game average for the season. The Blues have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by one goal. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored four or more goals. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in four or more games in a row. Goalie Jordan Binnington has played better lately — but he has still allowed three goals in each of his last two starts. For the season, he still owns a 2.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .907 save percentage. Columbus has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. The Blue Jackets have surrendered nine combined goals in their last two games — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two or more games in a row. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Elvis Merkilins will be between the pipes for them tonight — he has a 3.86 Goals-Against-Average and a .867 save percentage in his four starts this month. In his 13 starts on the road, he has a 3.73 GAA and a .889 save percentage. Columbus has played 16 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games against teams from the Western Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Blues have seen seven or more combined goals scored in five of six and seven of their last nine games — and the Blue Jackets have seen seven or more combined goals in four of their last seven games. Columbus won the last meeting between these two teams on December 8th — and St. Louis has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (61) and the St. Louis Blues (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (13-8) has won three straight games after their 68-58 victory against Coppin State as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Morgan State (6-14) has won two straight games after their 85-79 upset victory as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State is the top-ranked team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference according to Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Net Efficiency metrics — and they have an impressive non-conference victory against VCU. The Spartans missed all of their 12 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after nailing no more than 20% of their shots from behind the arc. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win at home. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning four of their last five contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing with only one day of rest. They stay at home where they are 9-0 with an average winning margin of +33.3 net Points-Per-Game. Norfolk State holds their opponents to just 36.3% shooting resulting in only 60.6 PPG. They also nail 52.0% of their shots at home resulting in 93.9 PPG. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Norfolk has several ways to generate extra-scoring possessions to help them blow out the Bears. They rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Morgan State is very vulnerable on this front as they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.9% of their possessions. The Spartans also lead the MEAC by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Bears rank last in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 38.3% of their missed shots. Furthermore, Norfolk State ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they make 75.7% of their freebies (47th in the nation) — and Morgan State ranks 331st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. The Bears made 54.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting performance in their last eight games. But Morgan State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset victory. That final score finished Over the 153.5-point total — but the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have a 1-11 record with an average losing margin of -18.3 net PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 49.3% of their shots including 36.3% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 83.7 PPG. Morgan State makes only 40.9% of their shots on the road including just 29.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 65.4 PPG. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 145 to 149.5.

FINAL TAKE: Morgan State ranks 323rd and 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when laying 12.5 to 15 points. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (46) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (45). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (30-11-5) has lost two games in a row after their 1-0 loss at Toronto on Wednesday. Toronto (23-15-8) has won three of their last four games after that shutout win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg has only scored one goal in their last two games — but they have then won 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than one goal in two straight games. They have also won 8 of their last 12 games after a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. But what makes this Winnipeg go in what has been a dominant stretch since the beginning of December has been their defense and goaltending. The Jets have allowed more than three goals just once in their last 36 games — and they have held 15 of their last 16 opponents to two goals or less. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has been as good as at any time in his career this season. He has a 2.17 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 34 starts this season — and in his eight starts this month, he has a 1.63 GAA along with a .945 save percentage. The Jets have played three straight Unders — and they have won 31 of their last 41 home games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also won 22 of their last 27 home games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have a 16-8 record this season while holding their guests to 2.3 Goals-Per-Game. Winnipeg should get their scoring attack cranked up tonight as they are scoring 3.4 Goals-Per-Game on their home ice. The Jets have won 39 of their last 56 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher including 14 of their 19 home games this season with the Totals set at 6 or higher. Toronto scores 3.5 Goals-Per-Game — but Winnipeg has won 18 of their last 27 games against teams who score 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. But the Maple Leafs give up 3.2 Goals-Per-Game — so their shutout on Wednesday was a rare occurrence. Ilya Samsonov stopped all 32 shots he faced in that game — but now he goes back on the road where he has a 3.61 GAA and a .867 save percentage in his ten starts away from home. Toronto has lost 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home. They have also lost 7 of their last 9 games after winning three of their last four contests.  

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have won 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a shutout loss. 25* NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (46) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (45). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). THE SITUATION: BYU (14-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-68 loss against Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Texas (14-5) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 upset victory at Oklahoma as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has lost four of their last six games as they experience the gauntlet of Big 12 play. Those four losses were against conference opponents that all rank in the top 32 teams according to Ken Pomeroy’s Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin ratings. The Cougars have registered quality wins against Iowa State and San Diego State which rank 12th and 22nd according to those Pomeroy rankings. This is a balanced team that ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. BYU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after playing three or more games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have a 10-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +25.9 net Points-Per-Game. The Cougars hold their guests to just 39.6% shooting resulting in just 62.8 PPG. They also nail 48.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.7 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 150s. Texas played their best defensive game in their last six games by holding the Sooners to just 39.3% shooting. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Texas has scored 71 or more points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. And in their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of those contests. The Longhorns rank just 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are even worse on the other end of the court where they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed their last five opponents to make     47.2% of their shots even after their strong effort against Oklahoma. Interior defense is a weakness as Texas allows Big 12 opponents to make 52.2% of their inside the arc — and BYU ranks seventh in the nation by converting 62.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home. The Longhorns stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.9 PPG due to them surrendering 77.3 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). THE SITUATION: Ohio (9-10) had their two-game losing streak snapped in a 67-58 loss at Akron as an 8-point underdog on Tuesday. Kent State (10-9) has won two of their last three games after their 90-84 upset win at Bowling Green in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats only made 38.9% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Ohio still leads the Mid-American Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% in conference play — so they should shoot better tonight. The Bobcats have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after failing to cover the point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Toal after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. It is usually the other end of the court where Ohio struggles — they rank 265th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In conference play, their opponents are nailing 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc which is the worst mark in the Mid-American Conference. Now they face a Golden Flashes squad that ranks 30th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers — and they lead the MAC by nailing 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. Kent State takes 22 shots from 3-point land per game — and Ohio has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who average 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game. The Bobcats allow their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots resulting in 77.8 Points-Per-Game which is +6.5 PPG above their season average. Ohio has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Kent State held the Falcons to just 43.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Golden Flashes have allowed at least 76 points in five straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Kent State has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They return home where they are making 48.4% of their shots resulting in 84.2 PPG which is +5.7 PPG above their season average. The Golden Flashes have played 7 straight Overs when playing on their home court. They do allow their guests to make 47.4% of their shots resulting in 72.4 PPG which is +2.8 PPG above their season average. Kent State ranks 313th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and that mark has risen to a 55.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Flashes have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.9% of their shots resulting in 80.6 PPG. Ohio shoots 45.7% from the field while taking 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Kent State has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Golden Flashes have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (11-7) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 90-61 win against Portland State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Eastern Washington (11-7) has won seven straight games after their 79-67 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have scored 77 or more points in eight straight games — and they have scored 83 or more points five times during that stretch. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Bears have played 6 straight Overs after a win on the road against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a win on the road after a victory on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their victory against the Vikings finished Under the 158.5-point total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Bears can score points — but they struggle on the other end of the court as they rank 302nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They go back on the road where they rank 338th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado allows their opponents to make 39.2% of their shots when away from home resulting in 84.5 Points-Per-Game. They do rank 18th in the nation by making 56.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have a 48.1% field goal percentage on the road resulting in 81.5 PPG. The Bears have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. Eastern Washington has scored at least 79 points in each of their seven-game winning streak. The Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row against conference foes. They have covered the point spread in nine straight games — and they have then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Eastern Washington ranks seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%. They rank tenth in the nation by making 39.9% of their 3-pointers — and that mark rises to an incredible 54.5% clip behind the arc when playing at home which is the highest mark in the nation for home-court 3-point shooting. The Eagles make 56.8% of their shots at home resulting in 93.8 PPG. Eastern Washington has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Northern Colorado averages eight made 3s per game — and the Eagles have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game. Eastern Washington averages nine made 3s per game — and the Bears have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a fast pace. The Eagles rank 61st in the nation by averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — and they rank 76th in the country with 70.1 adjusted possessions per game. Northern Colorado is even quicker as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 15.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 52nd in the country by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Bears have played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (12-7) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five after their 81-74 win at East Tennessee State as a pick ‘em on Sunday. Wofford (11-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-59 loss at UNC-Greensboro as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mocs scored at least 80 points for the eighth time this season with their victory over the weekend. Chattanooga has played 19 of their 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. This is a game against two teams who love to launch 3s — and both squads average 10 made 3s per game. The Mocs rank third in the nation by taking 50.7% of their shots from behind the arc. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests. They rank 82nd in the nation by making 35.2% of their 3-pointers away from home — they are scoring 77.2 Points-Per-Game overall on the road. But Chattanooga’s defense falters on the road — they are allowing their opponents to nail 45.4% of their shots away from home resulting in 80.1 PPG which is +9.6 PPG above their season average. The Mocs have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored on the road up to six points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 145 to 149.5. Wofford has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total against opponents who make at least 8 3-pointers per game. The Terriers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last seven days. Wofford ranks 31st in the nation by taking 44.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Mocs have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road against teams who average at least 8 or more 3s per game. The Terriers only made 37.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games and tied for the lowest shooting performance in their last 14 contests. They return home where they rank 41st in the nation by nailing 40.2% of their 3-pointers. They are nailing 49.2% of their shots at home resulting in 85.7 PPG which is +8.1 PPG above their season average. Wofford has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Defense is an issue for the Terriers who have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots. They also rank 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3-pointers — and their guests are nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Wofford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). THE SITUATION: Kent State (9-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 77-71 loss to Akron in a pick ‘em contest on Friday. Bowling Green (14-4) has won four games in a row as well as 12 of their last 13 contests after their 84-79 victory against Western Michigan as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINT(S): In head coach Rob Senderoff we trust to right the ship for his team tonight — Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Under Senderoff’s leadership, the Golden Flashes have won at least 19 games in the last nine non-shortened COVID seasons (and his 2020-21 team that season was 15-8). Kent State won the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season before losing to Indiana in the Big Dance. While the top three scorers from that team moved on, the front court that was the foundation of that team is back. Chris Payton has emerged as one of the best players in the conference with the forward scoring 14.1 Points-Per-Game on 50.3% shooting and 8.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. Jalen Sullinger has moved into the starting lineup this season to score 14.3 PPG while making 39.8% of his 3-pointers. The Golden Flashes lead the MAC by nailing 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from downtown against this Falcons team that ranks 263rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.2% of their 3-pointers — and visiting teams are nailing 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Conference opponents are making 38.9% of their 3-pointers against the Falcons. Kent State has lost both of their games that went into overtime this season -- or perhaps their record would be better. They still rank as the fourth-best team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin metrics of Ken Pomeroy — and Bowling Green ranks fifth in the MAC according to those numbers. Another power rankings system places Kent State as the 173rd best team in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 154th in the nation when playing away from home. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog getting up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s. Bowling Green has scored 78 or more points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Falcons have overachieved under first-year head coach Todd Simon who they hired away from Southern Utah in the offseason. Injuries have led Simon to rely on essentially a seven-man rotation. They have benefited from an overtime win against Eastern Michigan and a two-point victory against Southern Indiana. Their five victories in conference play have been against opponents who have a combined 11-18 record in the MAC. Bowling Green stays at home where they have a 9-1 record — but they rank just 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their 141st rank when playing away from according to those second set of power rankings I consider. The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points. Simon’s offense relies on a fast pace and drawing fouls — they lead the Mid-American Conference in free throw rate. But the Golden Flashes have the third-best opponent free throw rate in the conference. Kent State nails 45.2% of their shots from the field while averaging eight made 3s per game. Bowling Green has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 45% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.  

FINAL TAKE: Kent State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). THE SITUATION: Lamar (9-9) looks to snap a two-game losing streak after their 78-77 upset loss at  Houston-Christian as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M-Commerce (7-10) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 68-52 upset win at Southeast Louisiana on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar opened their Southland Conference schedule with three straight victories before losing at Incarnate Word and then Houston-Christian. They allowed the Huskies to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Cardinals have allowed at least 76 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. Now after playing their three games on the road, Lamar returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game with them scoring 90.9 PPG. The Cardinals should play better on defense tonight since they hold their guests to 40.0% shooting on their home court. Lamar has covered the point spread in all 4 of their boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 boarded home games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after playing two or more games in a row on the road. Furthermore, Lamar has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing their last two games on the road. And while they did not cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Cardinals should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. They rank 67th in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and they improve to 23rd in the country by rebounding 37.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. The Lions rank 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.7% of their missed shots — and when on the road, their opponents rebound 36.7% of their missed shots. Texas A&M-Commerce nailed 45.6% of their shots on Saturday to break their losing streak in what was the best shooting performance in their last five games. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread this season. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time on the road in the last three days. Texas A&M-Commerce is just 2-7 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by -18.1 net PPG. They only make 37.1% of their shots away from home resulting in just 57.3 PPG which is -16.2 fewer PPG than their season average. The Lions live-and-die by the 3 — they rank 9th in the nation by taking 48.9% of their shots from behind the arc. But they only make 28.8% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 338th in the nation — and that mark drops to just 24.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home, ranking 357th in the nation. Texas A&M-Commerce averages 10 mades 3s per game from 30 shot attempts from behind the arc per game — but Lamar usually exceeds point spread expectations when facing teams like this. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who average at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games against opponents who average at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game.

FINAL TAKE: Lamar has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. 25* CBB Southland Conference Game of the Month with the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE:  I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). THE SITUATION: Merrimack (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-70 upset loss at Central Connecticut State as a 1-point favorite on Monday. Wagner (8-7) has won four of their last five games after a 64-54 victory against Stonehill as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack has won the Northeast Conference regular season title in two of their four seasons at the Division I level — and they won both the regular season crown and the conference tournament last year. Now eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, there is an additional excitement around the program. Head coach Joe Gallo has overseen the only program in the NEC to not have a losing record in the last four seasons in conference play. And while the program lost its top three players in the transfer portal to bigger programs, they still have sophomore Jordan Derkack who has emerged into being the leading candidate to win Conference Player of the Year honors.  For Gallo, it all starts with the tricky 2-3 zone he deploys to frustrate their opponents. The Warriors rank 44th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.6%. Merrimack also forces turnovers — they rank ninth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions. Gallo had his players' attention this week after they allowed Central Connecticut State to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Warriors have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a Northeast Conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less. And in their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread 13 times. They return home to play for just the seventh time this season. They beat UMass-Lowell out of the American East on their home court by six points in a quality win since the River Hawks are projected to compete for their conference title. The Warriors rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court where they are undefeated — and they have a 13-game winning streak at home going back to last season. With the addition of 7’0 Jacob O’Connell to this year’s squad, Merrimack is playing better interior defense — they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.0% shooting inside the arc. Wagner is going to struggle to score tonight — they rank 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.6%. The Seahawks made only 40.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 306th in the nation — and that mark drops to 39.0% when playing away from home, ranking 360th in the nation. They did make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row in conference play by double-digits. Additionally, while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Wagner has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5-9 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have held their last two opponents to just 54 and 56 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. Wagner is vulnerable inside — they allow their opponents to make 51.8% of their shots inside the arc. Led by Derkack, the Warriors make 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 120th in the nation. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Month with the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-61 upset loss at UCLA as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. California (6-11) has lost four of their last six games after their 80-73 loss at Oregon as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington laid an egg against a struggling Bruins team. Their 40.4% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed UCLA to make 50.0% of their shots which was the second opponent’s field goal percentage they surrendered all season. The Huskies should rebound with a strong effort as they typically do under head coach Mike Hopkins. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss against a Pac-12 rival. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Hopkins hit the transfer portal in the offseason to upgrade the talent on his roster — and he has two former Kentucky players leading this team. Sahyr Wheeler gives him his first pass-first point guard in his tenure at Washington — and Keion Brooks is in contention for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Washington has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. California has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Golden Bears return home where they are only 5-4 with an average winning margin of +1.8 Points-Per-Game. Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Golden Bears are considered underrated due to four losses by three points or less along with two other losses in overtime — but the Huskies have similar claims that they could easily have a better record. Washington has lost five of their games by five points or less including an overtime loss to San Diego State. They have registered high-profile victories against Gonzaga and Xavier that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 25th and 26th best teams in the nation according to his net Adjusted Efficiency Margin metrics. All the computer models I follow project the Huskies as a small favorite — so the market may be overvaluing Cal’s close losses.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range.  Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (12-5) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 76-58 loss at home to Drake as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bradley (12-5) has won six games in a row after their 77-59 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SALUKIS PLUS THE POINT(S): Southern Illinois might have played their worst game of the season against a good Drake team that is second in the Missouri Valley Conference by ranking 66th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Salukis made only 36.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home where they did not score more than 60 points. They only scored 2 points in the first half against Drake — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their previous game. And by allowing the Bulldogs to nail 56.4% of their shots, Southern Illinois played their worst defensive game of the season. But the Salukis have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. After losing two All-Conference players from last year’s team that finished 14-6 in conference play, head coach Bryan Mullins gotten this group playing competing once again for a Missouri Valley Conference title with a 4-2 start in conference play. Southern Illinois has a 9-2 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +14.3 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 48.2% of their shots at home while holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting — so they should play better tonight on both ends of the court. The Salukis have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home with the Total set in the 130s. They match up well with the Braves who take 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc (ranking 81st in the nation) — and they average 24 shots from 3-point land per game. Southern Illinois ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to 26.4% shooting from behind the arc — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams who average 21 or more shots from 3-point land per game. The Salukis also rank fourth in the MVC in getting to the free throw line — and Bradley ranks 10th in the conference in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, Bradley leads the MVC by pulling down 35.7% of their shots — but Southern Illinois holds their conference opponents to rebounding only 23.2% of their missed shots. The Braves have covered the point spread in four straight games as well as five of their last six boarded games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven boarded games. And while Bradley has not allowed more than 64 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 65 points in five or more games in a row. The Braves are also 4-2 in conference play — but they miss center Rienk Mast’s scoring from last year’s team that won the regular season crown. Bradley only makes 45.0% of their shots including 34.9% from behind the arc when playing away from home. The Braves failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Month with the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-13) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 124-115 victory against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite yesterday. Denver (28-13) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests with their 117-109 victory against Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Joel Embiid returned to action yesterday after missing the previous three games — and he scored 41 points and added 10 rebounds in 31 minutes of play. Embiid has scored at least 30 points and pulled down at least 10 boards for the 16th straight game. Now Embiid has an opportunity to showcase his talents on TNT tonight — and he usually is very motivated in situations like this. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a straight-up victory. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their home court. Philadelphia is a balanced team that ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and those numbers take into account Embiid missing 11 games due to injury this season. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against Western Conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. Denver nailed 64.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Sunday which was the best shooting effort for them all season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 17 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. They go back on the road where they are just 11-9 this season with an average winning margin of just +0.2 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Denver allows their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots — and they have been playing loose on the defensive end of the court as of late. The Nuggets’ last five opponents are making 49.2% of their shots resulting in 116.4 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season defensive scoring average. The 76ers are undermanned tonight with De’Andre Melton, Robert Covington, and some role players out tonight — and this is why the point spread is as low as it is. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut that scores 116.2 PPG on 49.8% shooting — but the 76ers usually perform well against these types of teams. Philly has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who score at least 116 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 games against teams who shoot 48% or better from the field. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10  home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (8-10) snapped their two-game with a 93-78 victory against Pacific as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (10-8) has lost three games in a row after their 83-63 loss at home to San Francisco as a 10-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave was never a good defensive team this season — and they are getting crushed on that end of the court now that conference play has started. Pepperdine has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last three games in conference action — and West Coast Conference opponents are nailing 51.5% of their shots resulting in 80.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wave ranks 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 333rd in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 54.2%. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as their opponents are making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 336th in the nation. Pepperdine has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 75 or more points in three straight contests. The Wave have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they scored 85 or more points. Pepperdine can score with points — Michael Ajayi leads the WCC in scoring while Houston Mallet has potential NBA talent. The Wave is making 45.6% of their shots in conference play resulting in a respectable 75.6 PPG. But now they go back on the road where their home hosts make 54.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.3 PPG. Pepperdine has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total in conference play. San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss at home by double-digits. The Toreros have allowed their last three opponents to make 51.7% or more of their shots — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. San Diego is not a great defensive team either — they rank 169th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are perhaps now getting exposed in conference play. In their first three games against West Coast Conference rivals, they are allowing them to make 53.9% of their shots resulting in 88.3 PPG. The Toreros play in high-possession games as well — they rank 41st in the nation with 72.1 adjusted possessions per game. Their opponents only average 16.1 seconds per possession with the ball which is the sixth quickest in the nation. San Diego is scoring 73.4 PPG at home — and they should be able to make 3-pointers against this Waves perimeter defense since they rank 112th in the nation by making 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Toreros have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego won both meetings last season with both games seeing 165 and 181 combined points scored. Pepperdine has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.