Chris Creighton is 32-14-1 ATS as a road underdog at Eastern Michigan. Worth a sprinkle if you are looking for action tonight.

Well we have the two best teams in FCS football playing in the championship as North Dakota State takes on James Madison. Quite simply for me, the Dukes are the better team and I think they will win this one outright. Depending upon the book you use, the Circa in Las Vegas has the Dukes -2 while 5Dimes has North Dakota State -1.5. 

There's no guarantee that a team who needs to win in week 17 will actually do it. Philly just needs to win and they are in, but they are coming off a highly emotional game at home against Dallas and will not have Zach Ertz either. These two played earlier in the month with Eli Manning under center and they nearly won in Philly 23-17. The Eagles have so many injuries although Jordan Howard will be returning and Lane Johnson is questionable. Still, there's not a ton of weapons and Philly's defense has had it's issues on the road. The Eagles D gave up 27 in Washington, 37 in Miami and 37 in Dallas. The Giants have won their last two and the offense has looked really good. They put up 36 on Miami at home and 41 in Washington last time out. Daniel Jones has improved and is doing well when he's not turning it over. I think New York would thoroughly enjoy ruining the Eagles season. Give me the home underdog here that's not trying to tank away their season. 

The Steelers need to win and get help in order to get in the playoffs. They've been playing some terrible football on offense scoring just 10 points the last two weeks in games against the Bills and Jets. This is their third road game over the last four weeks and their fifth in their last seven. Devlin Hodges is under center and he's struggled terribly. The backup is Paxton Lynch who won't help much either. They can't run it with James Conner and Maurkice Pouncey out and the passing game is weak too. Yes, the defense has been awesome holding five straight opponents to 20 points or less. Baltimore is sitting a lot of their starters meaning RG3 is getting the call at QB and this is an audition for him to show other teams he's still got it. Now, they can't sit all of their starters, but Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Mark Ingram are all out. There's some good backups behind them and I just don't have faith in Pittsburgh. Plus, the Titans game will be on at the same time so who knows how that will effect the team. I like the home dogs in this one. 

Michigan State is 6-6 and has limped down the stretch. Sure, the Spartans beat Rutgers and Maryland in their last two games, but pretty much everyone beat those two. The more concerning part is that they scored only 46 points against two awful defenses and have put up just 97 their last five games overall. There's no questioning Sparty's defense although you can beat them through the air. Illinois threw for 369 yards in their 37-34 win in East Lansing. Wake Forest has lost three of their last four, but they were ravaged by injuries on offense. Even with those problems they still managed to put up a combined 69 points on Duke and Syracuse. The big problem for this team is their defense that has been awful against the run and the pass. They will be without safety Nasir Greer who was honorable mention all-ACC. Still, what's the motivation for Michigan State to show up in this game in a baseball stadium against a perceived lower level ACC team. I'll take the Demon Deacons plus the points. One other thing to consider is that Wake's kicker has missed one FG all year while Sparty's has missed nine. Give me the dog here.

I'm going to lock in this play now as I don't want to lose the value of the line and where it's at. Miami just finished up a 6-6 season and now has to head to Shreveport to take on Louisiana Tech. The Hurricanes traditionally have not shown up for games like this as they think this stuff is below them. Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry are vying for the quarterback position as Miami tries to find who will best suit the offense. The Canes have lost to FIU and Duke their last two games after a three game win streak.

On the other side, you've got Louisiana Tech who has been a fantastic team this season when everyone was available. They lost two of their last three when the quarterback and #1 wide receiver were suspended. With them in place, the offense was fantastic and the defense even played pretty well. They've played just seven contests against the ACC since 1992 so you know they'll relish this chance.

I'm playing a lack of motivation for the Canes in this one. I'm also playing the chance that Miami loses a player or two as they prep for the draft and sit out this game.

** Watch the headlines to see who may or may not play in this one. It will severely change my thoughts here, but as of now this is my play **

I think this line is a little high on Sunday night as the Bears host the Chiefs. Chicago has won three of their last four, but are coming of a 21-13 loss to Green Bay in which the offense did it's part, but things just didn't go their way. Still, this team has played well at home as of late winning each of their last three there. The defense is back in it's groove having held five of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less. KC has won four straight, but their last loss came against Tennessee on the road just over a month ago in a game like this against a tough nosed team that will grind it out a little bit and make KC have to work for it's points. I'm not a huge believer that this defense has turned it around all of a sudden. They've faced four straight weaker offenses in LA, Oakland, New England and Denver. The Bears have covered seven of their last nine as a home underdog with one other game being a push. They are 15-8-1 against the spread the last three seasons at home. I think they can make things interesting here. 

It's a huge game for the Seahawks in terms of the one seed in the NFC as they host the Cardinals. Seattle's been living on the edge this season with just one double digit victory which happened to come against Arizona. Back on September 29th, the Seahawks won 27-10 in a game that saw them up 20-3 at halftime. Arizona has played better as of late and is coming off a 38-24 win over Cleveland in which its offense sizzled and its defense even made a few plays too. This team has won in New York against the Giants and had close losses at Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The Seahawks just wrapped up a stretch of four of five games on the road that featured a ton of travel. They also host the 49ers next week in a much larger game. Seattle's defense is ridiculously banged up with Jadeveon Clowney and Quandre Diggs out as well as Duane Brown on the offense. Seattle is 9-12-1 against the spread over their last three seasons at home including 2-4 this year. Give me the road team to make things interesting. 

This is a spot play here on the home team as they bounce back from a tough loss to the Texans. It snapped their four game win streak which saw the offense go nuts. Tennessee is one of those teams that are really hard to figure out, but here outside, I like their chances. This is the same team that beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home back on November 10th. With Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill now, you could see them play some ball control and keep it away from a banged up Saints team. New Orleans is coming off an emotional stretch where they had the duel with the 49ers at home and then they got Drew Brees the record on Monday Night. Tennessee has covered eight of their last 11 non-conference games including two of three this year. The home team is a lot healthier and is in a buy low situation after coming up small against Houston at home last week. 

Recency bias comes into play here. The betting public saw the Jets get thrashed in Baltimore last Thursday night and are running to the window on the Steelers. This is a New York team that has played better at home with wins over the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders and Dolphins there. Yes, the Jets aren't great, but their secondary has actually played better and they've been very good against the run. Sam Darnold hopefully won't be seeing ghosts in this game, but you know Le'Veon Bell will be motivated to see his former team. It does scare me that Adam Gase is an idiot. On the other side, Pittsburgh has won three of their last four and are coming off a 17-10 home loss to Buffalo. Their quarterback situation is brutal with Duck Hodges being the "best" option right now. The run game has struggled a bit as James Conner has been banged up. This team struggled to win in Cincinnati and Arizona in their last two road games. I'm playing the spot here as the Steelers have the Ravens next week and if Baltimore wins this week, then they'll play backups in week 17. Last home game for the Jets and I'll take them here on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 13-19-1 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite and 4-7-1 ATS as a road favorite over that span. 

If you got in early on this one, then you are feeling good with the Jordan Love news. The Aggies quarterback was pinched for marijuana along with leading rusher Gerold Bright. One has to believe that the two will miss some time and potentially the whole game. Behind Love is a lightly used quarterback who saw mostly mop up duty. I really don't love the Aggies and how they closed things out down the stretch on defense. Linebacker David Woodward will miss his fifth straight game and you notice his absence on the run defense. 

Momentum is a big thing in these games and Kent State has it. They've won three straight and have covered each of their last five as an underdog. Dustin Crum has 2,336 yards and 18 TDs to 2 INT and leads the team in rushing yards.. Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall. The Flashes will get starting junior safety Qwuantrezz Knight back from a head injury that kept him out of action the past two games.

I think USU losing Love is pretty big. Kent State's defense isn't great, but if Bright is out too even for a period, that's huge. I'm taking the MAC school as I think they have a shot outright. 

** I'd consider Kent State in 1H too. The Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. **

This is a play on a competent home team that's getting points against a potential look-ahead situation. Minnesota has lost two of their last three road games and have played four of their last six away from home. The Vikings are in the mix for both the division and the wild card in the NFC, but have home games against division rival Green Bay and Chicago coming up next. They will get a boost most likely from the return of Adam Thielen, but LA's defense is getting healthier too. Derwin James is back at safety and he's a huge piece to the puzzle. The Chargers saw their three game losing streak snapped last week in a 45-10 win over Jacksonville. LA's been able to run the ball and seemingly has had Philip Rivers play a little bit better. Their defense is pretty much back intact and the unit is tough to run and throw on. Combine that with a 10-12 ATS record the last three years with Minnesota away from home and I think LA could potentially win the game outright.

The Jaguars have quit on the season and it shows on the field. They've lost five in a row and have been outscored by 117 points over that span which included road games at Indy and Tennessee. The offense isn't doing enough no matter who is under center and the defense is getting crushed by their opponent's ground game. Oakland has lost three straight and is in a bad spot themselves, but it looks like Josh Jacobs could be back to revive the run game and the passing attack should get going too. Also, this is the team's last home game in Oakland so you know it'll be loud and emotional. I just think Jacksonville has quit and Doug Marrone has lost the room. Because of that I think they get crushed one more time as the Raiders send their fans out with smiles and happiness. 

Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. 

The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. 

I agree with the line move here and will be taking the home team. St. Louis is coming off a 34-7 win in Arizona where everything went right. Jared Goff was great and the defense was like a brick wall. I don't know if this means Goff has turned the corner, but at least he has a little confidence. These two played a very tight game in Seattle back on October 3rd with the Rams losing 30-29. Seattle has won five straight, but I really don't like their defense. I think their secondary is very mediocre and their front seven is exploitable as well. Of course people will back them for Russell Wilson, but he's had three straight human performances and probably should have lost two of those games. I think Seattle has been lucky as of late and I'm hoping that runs out on Sunday. Give me LA in this situation to win the game. 

Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints. I just wonder if the Panthers play distracted and lay a massive egg. 

I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team.

The Browns and Steelers play just a few weeks after their Thursday night meeting in Cleveland in which Myles Garrett hit Mason Rudolph in the helmet. Well, Garrett's gone and Rudolph is as well with Duck Hodges back under center. Cleveland beat Miami 41-24 at home last week completing the three game home sweep. Cleveland's defense has been playing pretty good here, but the pass rush needs Garrett. The Steelers won 16-10 last week in Cincinnati in the most extreme sandwich spot you could probably ever have. Consistently this season Pittsburgh has been a home underdog and they've covered several times. The Steelers defense is forcing a ton of turnovers and will be highly motivated for this one. Cleveland has been a road favorite three times the last three seasons and they've only won that game outright once. I just think this line is getting a little extreme, but I'll take the home dog once again.  

Motivation is a powerful factor in this game as Troy hosts Appalachian State. The Trojans are coming off a 53-3 loss at Lafayette in which they got blasted in a bunch of areas. This is an offense that had scored 30 points or more in each of their previous five games before that ugly loss. Kaleb Barker is a very good quarterback and that offense should be able to move the ball enough to keep things interesting. App State is making their way to the Sun Belt title game again so this contest doesn't mean as much right now. They lost their stud wide receiver Sutton last week, so you know they are going to want to run it a lot and get out of dodge with a victory. App State's defense can be beaten through the air with South Carolina and North Carolina putting up over 300 yards. I just think this one is tighter then people expect as Troy is playing for bowl eligibility. Give me the home team. 

The Titans are the better team in this matchup although it's a bit of a worry that they are coming off a bye week. Tennessee has won three of their last four and are playing a whole lot better with Ryan Tannehill under center. The loss in that stretch came in Carolina, but this team has also feasted at home as of late. They want to grind it out with Derrick Henry who should be able to run wild on the Jags defense. Tannehill's weapons aren't great, but he's made due with it. The Titans defense has been fantastic for the most part. Yes, Kansas City sliced them up, but they do that to everyone. Before that, Tennessee's D was fantastic. Jacksonville has lost two straight and four of their last six. Last week they threw it too much with a rusty Nick Foles and they figure to run it more with Fournette. As I mentioned above though, you can run on these guys. Indy put up 264 while Houston ran for 216. These two met in Jacksonville on a Thursday night in September with the Jags winning 20-7 at home. That was the Gardner Minshew show, but the offense didn't work that well. Tennessee is 15-6 straight up at home the last three years covering 11 of those contests. In a low scoring affair, I'll go with the better running team. 

The Raiders are 6-4 and one of the best stories in the NFL right now. They head to New York to face the Jets on Sunday and it seems like a poor spot for the team. Oakland has a road game against the Chiefs up next week in a game that's a whole lot more important then this one. They've run off three straight wins over the Lions, Chargers and Bengals at home and are playing good football right now. Still, I'm not a huge believer in the Raiders defense. You can run on them and the last two opponents have. The secondary has put up some good stats, but the Chargers and Bengals passing attack are rather anemic.

On the other side you have the Jets who have won two straight and are finally playing like the team we thought they'd be. The offense put up 34 on the Giants and the Redskins the last two weeks. Sam Darnold is throwing it well with Le'Veon Bell who has been a key piece. The defense has been very good against the run all year and the secondary has actually been alright as of late. I know that teams are getting better with travel when heading east but I think that's a factor as well. Give me the home dog in this one.

This line confuses me as Cincinnati has been living on the edge during this current win streak. The Bearcats are coming off a narrow 20-17 win at South Florida in which they passed for just 78 yards. The defense was gashed by the Bulls and had to hold on for dear life. Just a few weeks before that, Cincy beat a woeful ECU team 46-43 at their place and they allowed over 500 yards in that one. The offense hasn't been great at times this season and the defense is very exploitable. 

Temple has won two straight since a brief two game losing streak. The Owls held down a pretty good Tulane offense last week and can still win the AAC with two wins and some help. The Owls offense can run it and Anthony Russo is capable of winning games too. Yes, Temple's defense has struggled against athletes, but does Cincy have enough of them? Their quarterback is very mediocre and Temple has dominated this series as of late. They beat Cincinnati at home 24-17 last year after knocking them off 35-24 on the road in 2017. Give me the underdog here.

Appalachian State is 9-1 and Texas State is 3-7. The Bobcats have allowed 33.2 points per contest and over 400 yards per tilt as well. TSU on the road has lost by 30 at SMU, 24 at Ark State and 28 at Louisiana Lafayette. They got crushed at home last time out 63-27 by Troy and App State's offense is a lot better. Appalachian State is steamrolling folks at home outside of the Georgia Southern loss. The Mountaineers have a 19 point win over Coastal Carolina and a 45 point win there over Louisiana Monroe. Yes, a road game against Troy is next, but it's senior day and App State can't afford to slip up when they are playing for a New Year's Day bowl. This one should be over by halftime. 

I think this line is giving too much respect to a still bad Atlanta team. The Falcons had lost six straight before this odd victory in New Orleans. The ATL offense lacks weapons outside of Julio Jones and the defense still isn't very good. During the six game losing skid, Atlanta lost four games by 7 points or more. Carolina has won five of their last seven and is coming off a frustrating loss to Green Bay in which they were one yard short of potentially tying it. This team has played just four games at home this season going 2-2 there. Kyle Allen has been very good and Christian McCaffrey has been the secret MVP candidate. The Panthers defense has been good against mediocre run teams and has held six opponents to 225 yards passing or less. Atlanta has won three straight in this series, but I think the Panthers get the win here.

Georgia Tech may be one of the best two win teams in America after another close shave in Charlottesville last week. The Jackets are one of the best teams against the pass holding teams to under 200 yards per game on average. Georgia Tech has actually struggled more it seems at home where they lost to The Citadel back in September as a 27 point favorite. The Hokies are playing some great football right now having won four of five since the Duke loss. The offense worked very well against the Demon Deacons and they slowed down their vaunted attack as well. Tech and UVA are the only two teams that control their own destiny in the Coastal right now. With regards to this game, I think it's a bad spot for the Hokies as they head down to Atlanta. They are coming off a highly charged emotional win for Bud Foster and have another home game against a Coastal foe in Pittsburgh next. I think focus could be an issue here and I wish I was getting more points. The play is Georgia Tech plus the points. I don't know if they win, but it's going to be tight.

Two of the lesser offenses in the SEC play as Vandy hosts Kentucky. The Wildcats have gone under in six straight games as their O has gone really anemic. Kentucky has scored just 109 points over their last seven contests. A lot of that has to do with injuries at quarterback, but Sawyer Smith is healthier and Lynn Bowden is still playing at quarterback. The good thing for them is that their defense has been really good. The last three weeks this team has allowed 45 points and that included 21 in the pouring rain against Georgia. It's very hard to run on these guys and their secondary has held six straight opponents to less then 220 yards through the air. Vandy will have Riley Neal under center which will help them. The Commodores have scored 44 points the last five games and have gone under in five of their last six. Vandy's defense is nothing special, but they've spent a lot of time on the field. This team held South Carolina to 24 and Missouri to 14. Last year this was a 14-7 game with two better teams. I think we could see something similar here.

Louisville has won three of their last four and has a pair of road victories already this season. Scott Satterfield has done great things with this team and a lot of them showed up last time out two weeks ago against UVA. In that game they featured a dynamic running attack and a defense that clamped down on the run and played well in the secondary. That's not the norm, but I really think they have the talent to make things interesting on Saturday. Miami has won three of their last four, but are a maddeningly inconsistent team to figure out right now. Miami's offense has shown a bit of a pulse lately with Jarren Williams under center. They don't run it very well which means the signal caller has to be more involved. Miami's defense has finally played like the unit we thought they were. Seven straight opponents have thrown for 250 yards or less. The Canes have covered just 10 of their last 28 as a favorite including one of five this season. I like the road team with the extra week to prepare as Miami has their final home game of the season.

These two teams are going in different directions right now. The home team was leading James Madison in the 4th quarter, but couldn't finish the deal and have now lost three straight. Villanova's problems start in the backfield where they are getting almost half the product from DeeWil Barlee that they got from Justin Covington who tore his ACL. Richmond's offense has been clicking with Joe Mancuso under center. In all but one game he's led them in passing and rushing yards averaging 263 through the air and 82 yards on the ground. During this losing streak, Villanova has allowed 28 to New Hampshire, 36 to Stony Brook and 38 to JMU. Those are some dynamic offenses much like UR. During this recent stretch, the Spiders have scored 30 on Stony Brook, 35 at Delaware and 27 on Yale. The defense has gotten better with a really strong set of linebackers. Villanova probably was the better team entering the season but I really think UR is right now so I'll take all these points.

** I like this play from +8.5 and higher if it should move **

The Broncos have made a change at quarterback due to injury and it's Brandon Allen who was awful this preseason. The signal caller takes over an offense that is averaging just over 300 yards per game. It's the defense that I'm really backing here on Sunday. By not trading Chris Harris and Von Miller, you've shown a little confidence in what this team can do. This side of the ball has shut out Tennessee and held potent Indianapolis to 15 points on the road. It's hard to run on them and even harder to throw.

Cleveland has lost three straight and is playing their fourth road game over their last six weeks. Everyone is questioning Freddie Kitchens and rightfully so. He seems way over his head. They made a ton of mistakes in New England and lost 27-13. This team got all the hype this offseason and Baker Mayfield has been a turnover machine. Yes, they have the better talent in this one, but I think this is a drastic overreaction to a mediocre QB going out and a lesser one going in. It'll be tough sledding for Cleveland on the road. There's no guarantee they take care of business in this one.

MTSU is getting a lot of respect after beating FIU 50-17 at home as an underdog. Still, the Blue Raiders other wins came at home against Tennessee State and Marshall. The team was able to run it last week in a torrential downpour and take the ball out of their qb's hands. Their defense was pretty solid, but that's not representative for the whole season. You can run on these guys which means Benny LeMay should go nuts. Charlotte saw their four game losing streak end after an awesome 39-38 comeback win over North Texas. They were able to use their balance to run and pass the ball. Charlotte's defense is brutal so that's a worry, but this team is 3-1 at home this season. I'm going to take a shot with the underdog in this one. I think they can get the points when they need to.

The Jaguars snapped a two game losing streak last time out beating Cincinnati 27-17. Jacksonville was able to run it and throw it really well against the tanking Bengals. Also, the defense played really well, but consider the competition. Jacksonville's hard to get a read on. They lose to the Chiefs and Texans, but then they won two straight before struggling against Carolina and New Orleans. The Jets are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football game against the Patriots, but remember before that they beat the Cowboys at home. Sam Darnold won't be that awful again and will be able to do some work against this defense without Jalen Ramsey. The Jets have been very hard to run on and have had some success against the pass despite being a hideous secondary. The Jags have covered just nine of their last 21 games as a favorite. I think New York can keep things interesting here. 

The Owls are a great underdog and for some reason continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Already this season, they've covered as a home dog against Maryland and Memphis winning both games outright. I think some of the shine came off after their loss against SMU last week in which they gave up over 400 yards through the air. Still, this offense is capable of doing good things and controlling the clock a bit. They've run for 150 yards or more five times already this season. The defense, for the most part has been fantastic holding the Terps to 17 points back in week 3. UCF is 5-2 and you can notice that in their two losses, they were out-physicaled and got punched in the mouth a bit. This will be their fourth road game and they are 1-2 so far away from home. We know how good their offense is, but their defense is very vulnerable. The Golden Knights have dominated this series as of late although last year they only won 52-40 against the Owls at home in a game that saw Temple go punch for punch with them. I'll take the home team in this one.

ECU interests me a ton in this matchup. USF's offense is just not working under their new coordinator from Valdosta State. Even worse right now, they are deciding between a healthy walk-on and a backup quarterback who has shoulder and arm issues right now and can barely throw. USF is 3-4 on the year with the wins coming over South Carolina State, UConn and BYU. Problem is that when the offense doesn't work, it really doesn't work. This squad still hasn't fixed their issues on defense either. You can certainly run on them with five teams putting up 180 or more against them. ECU showed me something in the 2nd half vs. UCF last week. They were blown out in the first half, but made things a little interesting after halftime. They've got some decent quarterback play and can control the clock with their run game. I love the Mike Houston hire as he knows offense. USF is 7-12 against the spread the last three years as a favorite. I really question the motivation of the road team right now with an awful coach like Charlie Strong. Give me the home dog here.

Buffalo turns to Kyle VanTrease under center after Matt Myers was announced to be out for the year. He had an awful game last week against Akron, but it didn't matter throwing for just 65 yards. His backup is a true freshman and the third stringer is a wide receiver who is also holding field goals. This offense wants to succeed by running it with Marks and Patterson. CMU has won three straight and can be beaten on the ground, but they are pretty stout in the back end. The question is if UB can slow down a Chips offense that is smoking hot right now. They've scored 122 points during this win streak as Quinten Dormady and Jonathan Ward lead the way. Buffalo's defense has been vulnerable against the pass when stressed. They've put up good numbers as of late but Ohio, Miami (Ohio) and Akron don't throw it well. I think the road team is a live dog here. Remember, CMU nearly won at Miami.

I'm buying the Chargers at this price on Sunday. LA is 2-4 on the year with the wins coming over the Colts at home and Dolphins on the road. Their four losses are all by seven points or less. This team needs to get their run game going a bit and it should be better with Melvin Gordon continuing to shake off the rust. Philip Rivers probably needs to throw the ball a little less to give more balance. The defense has been awesome against the pass as of late and has been a mixed bag against the run. Being on the road won't bother them that much either. Go figure Tennessee who is also 2-4 on the year. Their wins were at Cleveland and at Atlanta. This team has lost by two at home to Indy and by seven at home against Buffalo. The offense has been so bad that they turned to Ryan Tannehill to start this one. The run game hasn't worked a ton and they've thrown for less then 250 yards in every game. The Titans defense continues to be very good which is a concern. Last year LA won this game 20-19 at home as a seven point favorite. The Titans were able to ground and pound and that helped with the TOP advantage. LA is 13-5-2 the last three years against the spread on the road.

The Bison are 6-0 this season and have wins with margins of 47, 31, 25, 11, 34 and 32. This is the Trees Bowl game against 1-4 Missouri State. Now there's a worry that the team will be looking ahead to the rivalry game at South Dakota State, but the Bison are just so good. They've scored less then 30 just once and have allowed more then 20 just once. Missouri State has losses of 14, 52, 11 and 35 with the one loss coming in triple overtime against Western Illinois. The Bears last time out gave up 24 points in the span of four mins in their loss to South Dakota. They had an early 7-0 lead before giving up 45 straight. Missouri State is also one of eight FCS teams to have just one win in the last calendar year. Only two teams rank behind them in third down conversions and they are 112th in rushing yards allowed. I think even giving a B level effort will give the Bison a really easy win. 

So I've been trying to fade Wyoming whenever I can and I'll try doing it again here with New Mexico. The Lobos are 2-4 and have been a mixed bag on both sides of the ball. They scored 39 on Sam Houston State and 55 on New Mexico State, but have also scuffled at Notre Dame and at Liberty. The one thing this defense does well is stop the run for the most part. I'm guessing a lot of that has to do with the fact that they've allowed over 300 yards passing to everyone. I don't know if Wyoming can take advantage of that considering 214 passing yards is their season high on 32 attempts. They want to run the ball early and often. This team is 4-2 against the spread failing to cover against Idaho and San Diego State. They are good against the run which is a bit of a concern. Wyoming has spanked New Mexico the last two years. Foolish or not, I'm going to keep trying to fade the Cowboys when I can.

I wrote a really long preview on this game for Athlon Sports. The long and short of it is that I just don't love the Niners on a short week against a team that will take the run away from them. San Fran doesn't want to get into a shootout and I just don't know how well they'll run it without their two starting tackles AND their fullback. Todd Gurley being out is a concern, but this team is used to playing without him. Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson are not bad backups if Gurley is limited. The Rams have had 10 days to stew after their loss to the Seahawks in which they should have won due to a missed field goal. I think LA shows everyone how good they are in this game and gives the Niners their first loss of the season. 

This is a spot play as we have a classic sandwich involving Virginia Tech. The Hokies were dead and buried entering last week, but they played a wild game against Miami picking up a win. They cashed in a bunch of turnovers, but then choked the lead away before a late score. I'm still not a huge Hendon Hooker fan and wonder what kind of gameplan they call with North Carolina on deck. That's a lot bigger game for them then this one. Of course, Virginia Tech is dying for wins, but that doesn't matter in the spread. Rhode Island is 1-4 but three of the losses were by 12 points against Delaware, New Hampshire and Stony Brook. This team lost 41-20 early on against Ohio so they have a little FBS experience. It's a spread style of offense with receivers taking direct snaps. They've forced 10 takeaways defensively, but are bad against the run. Aaron Parker is a really good URI receiver and he's got good chemistry with Vito Priore. I'll take a shot on the spot here and hope we get a sleepy Tech effort much like the one they had against Furman.

The Cougars have had two weeks to prepare for a Cincy team coming off a huge win over divisional rival UCF. Houston was awesome two weeks ago in North Texas proving that life post D'Eriq King may not be as awful as people think. Clayton Tune played well in place of King and got some extra time to add more wrinkles to Dana Holgorsen's offense. The Coogs also have had a chance to rest after a fast and furious start to the season that saw a bunch of games packed in early. Cincy's win last week over UCF was because of the Golden Knights' struggles in the red zone. Cincy's defense has had some success this season, but against some lesser offenses. Their offense could struggle to get Michael Warren going. Houston's run defense has had three good games and two awful ones, but those were Oklahoma and Tulane. Houston has covered eight of their last 13 home games. I think they are a live dog in this one. 

Ball State has to be feeling good about themselves after getting their first win over Northern Illinois in a long time last week. This team is playing their third straight road game with a bye mixed in there. They ran it 60 times last week to just 14 passes, but I don't see that radical a split in plays this week. Ball State's defense is exploitable depending upon how you want to attack it. NC State had 204 rushing yards while Indiana and FAU had over 300 yards passing. EMU is 3-2 and is coming off a really tough 42-16 loss last week in Central Michigan. This is their second home game of the season and I think that'll be big for this team. The Glass kid at quarterback is very solid and has performed well despite the run game being of no help. EMU's defense had a poor effort last week against the Chippewas. I expect something better from them at home. This team has covered 18 of their last 30 overall. I think the home team bounces back. 

I think this line is rather crazy considering these two teams. Yes, Memphis is 5-0 putting up awesome numbers on offense, but they've also put them up against garbage defenses. Brady White's really good under center and it'll be interesting to see if Patrick Taylor Jr will play in the backfield. Memphis has very good defensive numbers, but they did allow nearly 600 yards of offense to UL-Monroe last week. Temple is an unfocused effort against Buffalo away from being 5-0 themselves. The Owls shut down a potent Maryland offense holding them to 17 points. They've given up just 86 points and have a very good secondary and a pass rush that could stress the Tigers. Temple's 18-13 against the spread in their last 31 games and have covered all three games at home. Memphis is only 7-6 against the spread the last three years on the road. I just think Temple can keep up here if there is a shootout but could also get stops when needed as well. Give me the home dog.

This seems like a great time to back the Cowboys. Dallas is coming off a terrible 12-10 loss where they ran for only 45 yards against the Saints in New Orleans. The Cowboys defense was very strong in the loss as they have been all season long. Yes, they've put up great numbers against the garbage Giants, Redskins and Cowboys, but I see people jumping off the bandwagon here because it's Aaron Rodgers. You can run on the Packers defense so expect Ezekiel Elliott to be fed early and often. The Eagles ran it 33 times which is not their forte and they put up 176 yards. GB's offense threw it 53 times and ran it 20 and that lack of balance won't work against Dallas. Davante Adams is out for the Packers and that means it'll be a really young wide receiver group going up against a really stout secondary. The money is coming in on the road team because of ARod's past few games in Dallas where he's went in and won. This year's offense isn't as potent as those and the Cowboys defense should be able to hold GB down. Give me the home team in this one. 

Baltimore enters this one having lost two in a row to the Chiefs and the Browns. In each game they were gashed on defense by good offenses. Nick Chubb went nuts for Cleveland last week as part of a 40 point explosion. The Ravens offense isn't the issue because they are scoring points, but this defense is a problem right now. Pittsburgh got their first win last Monday against the Bengals and it was because of a very efficient effort by Mason Rudolph. The usage of Jaylen Samuels at wildcat was a nice wrinkle as well. The Steelers D lived in the Bengals backfield and was pretty solid on the back end. It's not great that the road team has won three of the last four games in this series, but I have to like the confidence Pittsburgh has right now. The Steelers are 7-2 against the spread as an underdog the last three seasons. I think they have a shot to win this game outright.

These two teams each have one win this season and are hoping for a second one. The Beavers are 1-3, but are averaging over 30 points per game. So far this team has losses to Oklahoma State and Hawaii to go along with a three point loss at the hands of Stanford. With Jake Luton who some people don't like and Jermar Jefferson at running back, the offense hasn't been the issue. The defense has let them down from time to time although they've done well the last two weeks. UCLA is 1-4 with losses to Cincy, San Diego State, Oklahoma and Arizona. The team's only win came in a wild one against Washington State on the road despite giving up nine touchdown passes. It looks like UCLA's starting QB may be out for this one which means they'll try to rely on the run a lot more. The Bruins defense isn't that great as they've given up 290 passing yards or more in four straight. UCLA is just 11-18-1 against the spread in their last 30 games including 3-8 in their last 11 as a favorite. Give me the road team. 

This is a spot play as Texas embarks to their huge rivalry game against Oklahoma next week. The Longhorns have lost three of their last five in the contest before taking on the Sooners. Last year they beat K-State 19-14 as an eight point favorite and the year before that they beat K-State again 40-34 as a six point favorite. In 2016 they lost by 18 at Ok. State and that started a stretch of three straight losses. West Virginia is 3-1 with wins over JMU, NC State and Kansas. This team is running it a lot better and is finding some room to throw it too. The defense hasn't been great and that's a worry here. Texas is also 3-1 with wins over La Tech, Rice and Oklahoma State with the loss coming to LSU. The Longhorns offense has been fantastic this season outside of the slight turnover issue that it seems they've had. Their defense has been pretty good although the Cowboys gashed them for almost 500 yards of offense. There are plenty of Longhorns injuries in the secondary which could be a factor. Last year the Mountaineers went to Texas and won 42-41. They also won in Texas back in 2016. This has been a close series. I think we get a solid game here and the home team makes things interesting. 

I'll take the plunge with the massive home underdog here as I just don't know how good the Chargers are. LA is 1-2 with a six point home win vs. the Colts to go along with a three point loss at Detroit and a seven point home loss to the Texans. LA's passing game has worked, but the kicking game is just so bad. They probably don't run it enough and the defense has been a little leaky at times. They were torched by Deshaun Watson and gave up nearly 400 yards to Indy in week one. If they didn't force four turnovers against Detroit, LA would have lost by a lot more. Look, I know Miami's terrible but they at least showed a little bit more of a pulse with Josh Rosen under center. Everything is bad about the Dolphins but this is the Chargers coming east and playing this team the week before hosting Denver which is a whole lot more important. The Chargers are 10-10-1 against the spread in their last 21 as a favorite. This might be my one and only chance to take Miami to cover and if they get blown out, I'll hate myself, but give me the boatload of points.

I'd play this all the way down to 14.5 although then it becomes a 2% selection

Wyoming lost on the field 24-21 last week at Tulsa and took some big time injuries as well. Running back Trey Smith is out six to eight weeks with an ankle injury and Xazavian Valladay has been battling a foot injury which won't keep him out of the game. Guard Logan Harris and corner Tyler Hall sustained concussions and their status is up in the air. The team's right tackle Alonzo Velazquez isn't expected to play with a knee injury either. UNLV's coaching staff said they spent their bye week working really hard on the Cowboys who finally got picked off after a lucky 3-0 start. “We did a little more (game preparation) than you would if we had a bye in say Week 6, 7,” Sanchez said. “We’ll handle the next bye week (in November) a little bit differently than we did this. … I feel really good about where we are moving on into this week.”

Wyoming beat Missou 37-31 at home then somehow beat Texas State on the road despite being outgained. They then only took down Idaho 21-16 as a 27.5 point favorite. This team wants to run the ball and use Chambers as sparingly as possible. UNLV's got a win over Southern Utah 56-23 and losses of 43-17 to Arkansas State and 30-14 to Northwestern. It's a concern that their quarterback position is a massive concern and their run defense isn't great, but the Rebels have also forced nine turnovers. UNLV has covered nine of their last 12 as a road underdog. Wyoming is 7-7 against the spread the last few seasons at home. Give me the road team plus the points.

UCF is going to be quite the angry bunch on Saturday as they host the awful UConn. The Golden Knights are coming off a tough 35-34 loss to Pittsburgh which killed their chances of making the College Football Playoff. This team has bludgeoned their lesser opponents beating Florida A&M 62-0, FAU 48-14 and destroyed Stanford 45-27. This offense is quite prolific and they'll be eager to get Dillon Gabriel back on track. The Huskies are 1-2 with a 24-21 win over Wagner to go with losses of 31-23 to Illinois and 38-3 to Indiana. This offense is anemic and their defense can't stop the run or the pass right now. Last year these two teams played a 56-17 game in Storrs with the road team winning as a 23.5 point favorite. This team has been a favorite of 31 or more points four times the last three seasons. They are 18-7 against the spread in their last 26 contests as a favorite. I think this one gets really ugly. 

Georgia Southern is starting Sun Belt play on Saturday as they host Louisiana. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and despite the fact they are 1-2, there's still a lot to like. They nearly knocked off Minnesota two weeks ago on the road and have a tight win over Maine. I was worried about how the triple option would look with Justin Tomlin under center but he ran it pretty well against the Golden Gophers. The defense's biggest strength is against the run holding teams to 89 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota only managed 93 yards on 48 carries and LSU only got 122. Yes, this means they are vulnerable through the air which means Lake Lewis will have to be good. Lafayette wants to run it, but can also throw the ball around the yard as well. Their wins are over Liberty, Texas Southern and Ohio with a 10 point loss against Mississippi State sprinkled in. The Ragin Cajuns have had a turnover issue with 12 of them the last three weeks and that's a concern. Lafayette doesn't have the extra time to prepare for the option while GSU had a week to get healthier. Maybe there's a chance Shai Werts gets in under center. These two played back in 2017 with GSU winning 34-24 as a four point underdog. I think they are worth a look here. ULL is going to be without defensive lineman Chauncey Manac for this one as well. 

San Jose State is feeling really good about themselves after beating Arkansas 31-24 on the road. The Spartans had a rally on Monday and a little extra celebration after the win. They have a 35-18 win over Northern Colorado and a 34-16 loss to Tulsa. In those games the Spartans showed some balance on offense and some struggles on defense. The Golden Hurricane ran for 256 yards in their win in California. I have to wonder what the SJSU focus will be like for this one. Air Force is also 2-1 with a 48-7 win over Colgate to go along with a 30-23 overtime defeat of Colorado. They lost a tough one to Boise last week 30-19. This is a respectable defense, but more importantly an offense that can run it and throw it. Donald Hammond is running this thing really well. Give me the Force to cover this big number as they wear down the Spartans. 

The Steelers are around a touchdown underdog on Sunday as they hit the road to play San Francisco. The Niners are 2-0 and have done everything right so far on both sides of the ball. Upon closer inspection though, they took care of business against the Bucs and Bengals who aren't very good. San Fran racked up almost 600 yards of offense on the Bengals and held them in check defensively as well. Obviously Kyle Shanahan is a good coach and Jimmy G is learning at quarterback, but I think this is a bit of an overreaction. Pittsburgh got blasted in week one by New England 33-3 and then the team lost a tough one 28-26 to the Seahawks. In the contest, Mason Rudolph came in and almost brought his team back. I've liked the kid since Oklahoma State and think he's got the right stuff to keep things going. It looks like James Conner is going to be fine and will play Sunday which will be a help. I also think the locker room gets a boost from the front office trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who will instantly be an upgrade on the secondary. I think this is a prideful bunch and don't forget the stands will be littered with Steelers fans. Pittsburgh has been a road underdog six times the last three seasons and has covered five of those games. San Fran has been a home favorite just four times the last three years and has failed to cover in all four. The Niners could be an improved team, but I'll dig in and hope for one last great effort from Pittsburgh as they rally behind Rudolph. 

This line is rather crazy as I think the Eagles could be without several key players including DeSean Jackson, Timmy Jernigan and maybe even Alshon Jeffery. I'll add more to this later on in the week, but I think this could be a little closer especially if Carson Wentz has no one to throw to. 

Color me unimpressed with the Falcons after they nearly lost to an Eagles team at home that had like 10 players hurt and Carson Wentz looking terrible. Atlanta can't get any sort of running game going and Matt Ryan is turning it over way too much. ATL has seven turnovers to just one forced. Yes, their secondary is putting up good numbers, but it was helped by the 10 attempts by Minnesota in week one. The Vikings committed to the run and shoved it down the Falcons throats. Atlanta is 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 road games. Indy went 1-1 in their two road games to start the year. The Colts lost 30-24 at the Chargers week one in overtime and then beat the Titans 19-17 on the road. In each contest they were able to run it well and have Jacoby Brissett do enough to win. Indy's defense doesn't get enough credit as they've done pretty well as a unit. Darius Leonard is still one of the better linebackers in the league. The crowd will be fired up to finally have their team home. I think the Colts win this one outright. 

Iowa State has to be wondering what happened last week in their 18-17 loss to rival Iowa. The Cyclones have played just two games so far this season with the other being a three point win over Northern Iowa in 3OTs. Brock Purdy just doesn't have enough help elsewhere on the team. The defense has been very good as they've held teams to two touchdowns and a bunch of field goals. Is there a hangover here for the noon kickoff or are they angry and ready to blow someone apart. The Warhawks are 1-1 beating Grambling 31-9 and then losing 45-44 in overtime to Florida State. Good thing for them is that they had a bye week afterwards to heal up after the physical affair. I really like the potential of this offense with Caleb Evans under center. They have hung around .500 the last three seasons as a road underdog under Matt Viator. There's certainly blowout potential here, but I think Iowa State will be in a bit of a fog as they struggle to a win. 

Central Michigan enters this one coming off a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin in a contest that saw them lose quarterback Quinten Dormady and running back Jonathan Ward who are their two best weapons. David Moore will start at quarterback while sophomore Kobe Lewis will work with the first team. Moore came in relief and threw for one yard against the Badgers. CMU just doesn't have the offensive ability to overcome something like this and they have issues on defense. On the other side, it's been a rough start for the Zips who lost to UAB at home and Illinois on the road. Still, there are many picking Akron to win their half of the MAC led by Kato Nelson under center. They played CMU last year and beat them 17-10 at home. The Zips are on the road so that's not great, but I can't imagine there's too much of a homefield advantage for the Chips. 

This is the second time that I've tapped the Spartans this season after they covered in a close to loss to Old Dominion way back in week one. This is a veteran bunch who is led by a very good quarterback in Juwan Carter. Last week Carter threw for four touchdowns in a 44-21 win over Virginia State who is a level below NSU. This team has some solid weapons and not the worst defense in the world. Back in week one they lost 24-21 to ODU and showed that they could go punch for punch with them. Coastal Carolina is 1-1 losing 30-23 to Eastern Michigan at home in week one. In week two they went to Kansas to win 12-7 in a contest that I'm sure they are really excited about. This offense has been pretty underwhelming this season. Last year the Chanticleers won 58-21 at Campbell. This team has not covered their last three games as a home favorite. This is a rather large number. Give me the FCS squad. 

I really like the spot here for Air Force. The Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for Colorado after a 48-7 win over Colgate in week one. Air Force runs a really solid triple option with Donald Hammond at quarterback. He's been in the system and has some decent weapons around him in the backfield. Reading a lot of the quotes coming from the team that say they are pretty confident entering this one. Mountain West teams have won seven of their last 10 against the PAC-12. Air Force has a pretty solid defense and went 3-1-1 against the spread on the road as an underdog last year. Colorado is 2-0 and is coming off the highly emotional win over rival Nebraska in overtime. They put a lot into this game and received a ton of accolades for the victory. Really if you break it down, this team wants to throw it and throw it some more with Montez and Laviska Shenault. The Buffaloes have a road trip to Arizona State up next. I think if they aren't ready, the road team can win this one outright. Give me the Air Force. 

The Andrew Luck news rocked the NFL world on August 24th and then Vegas came out and overreacted to what they saw. Luck was a great quarterback and there's no doubt that the offense won't be as good. Taking over for him is Jacoby Brissett who is no slouch. He's had experience in this system and is playing behind a very improved offensive line. T.Y. Hilton is still a strong receiver and the tight end group is the best in football. I have all the faith in the world that there won't be that much of a decline. The Colts defense is not terrible either. The Chargers offense is without Melvin Gordon and has a mediocre offensive line in my mind. The defense lost Derwin James at safety and I think it's a big loss for that group. To me, it's no guarantee that the Colts lose, but I think that even if they do, it'll be a one score game. Just watch Brissett ball out in this offense.

I isolated this play all the way in the offseason because it's the perfect sandwich to take advantage involving Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane lost a very physical 28-7 game on the road against Michigan State. Tulsa had a whopping -73 net rushing yards and 153 pass yards in the loss. Their defense wasn't terrible, but a lot of that was because of the milquetoast playcalling of Sparty. Tulsa has got a massive game next week at home against in-state rival Oklahoma State. It's their first home game of the season and they don't get the Cowboys at home very often. In between these two games is a west coast road trip to play San Jose State. The Golden Hurricane have lost 13 straight road games and have been a road favorite just six times since Philip Montgomery has taken over with a record of 3-3 against the spread. 

San Jose State is coming off a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado. Josh Love accounted for three touchdowns in the win and he's a pretty good quarterback. On defense Ethan Aguayo had 20 tackles and a sack. There's some confidence on this sideline as they lost their FCS game last year to UC Davis. The last three years San Jose State is 6-4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. They return 13 starters and had a few close losses at home. The last time these two played was back in 2016 when Tulsa won 45-10. I just think this is an awful spot for the Golden Hurricane and like the home team to cover this one with the small chance of an outright win. 

Furman hits the road to take on the biggest upset winner from week one in Georgia State. The Paladins are coming off a 46-13 win over Charleston Southern last time out. They ran the ball really well and didn't need to throw it much with Grainger under center. The whole offensive line is back and so are several of the backs. Furman has GSU and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks. Last year the Paladins lost 48-7 to Clemson in their only FBS game, but of course this is completely different. It was fun watching Ellington under center for the Panthers. The offense found it's stride and the defense made just enough stops. Remember, this team went 2-10 last year and barely beat it's FCS opponent Kennesaw State 24-10. Georgia State has been a home favorite just 12 times the last ten seasons and have covered just four of those games. I think this is a classic case of a team who can't handle success. They are yapping way too much about their win over Tennessee. The Panthers may win but as long as this stays above a touchdown or near it, I'm in on the underdog. 

This is a bit of a contrarian play. Everyone saw what Louisville did on Monday night against Notre Dame, but anyone can get up when the Fighting Irish come to their school. After the really hot start, the Cardinals cooled off tremendously. Yes, Jawon Pass has talent and can move the ball with his legs, but Rome wasn't built in a day. Last year, this team went 2-10 and beat their FCS opponent Indiana State 31-7 as a 41 point favorite. This team covered just once against the spread in 2018. Eastern Kentucky last year lost to Marshall 32-16 and Bowling Green 42-35 in two close FBS games. This year they started out with a big 53-7 win over Valparaiso. The team racked up over 300 yards of rushing in that one and played some solid defense as well. Conor Blount was under center for some of this and he came from Oregon State. Meanwhile, the running backs are led by Daryl McCleskey and some FBS transfers as well. The Colonels were fifth in FCS football with 19 interceptions last year. Short week for the Cardinals and one where they have to focus up for a lesser opponent. Give me the team who can make them work for it as an around three touchdown underdog. 

This is a situational play for me as I really don't love Charleston Southern, but the circumstances surrounding the Gamecocks make this worth a look. South Carolina lost 24-20 to North Carolina and then lost Jake Bentley as well. Ryan Hilinski is going to take over and he's a little raw. This means they may rely on the backfield featuring Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster. They might play this one a bit close to the vest because Alabama is next at home on the 14th. Last year this team beat Coastal Carolina (not an FCS team) 49-15 and Chattanooga 49-9 before their matchup with Clemson. South Carolina's defense is pretty strong so that's a concern, but this really seems like a run out the clock situation. CSU lost 46-13 to Furman and that's one of the better FCS teams. Last year they went 5-6 and hired Autry Denson the former Notre Dame running back. He's installing the Air Raid offense and they've got some decent talent to run it. I really feel like if we can get 10-13 points from the underdog, then this one should cover. 

Norfolk State has a top 10 pass defense in the FCS led by senior safeties Bobby Price and Nhyre Quinerly. This team won just four games last year, but they were really close to getting a few more wins. NSU goes as Juwan Carter goes though and he threw for the fourth most yards in program history last season. It's a worry that a lot of his weapons are relatively new but, they are a talented group. They need to get things going on the ground to keep the pressure off Carter though and that's on Aaron Savage. ODU has so many questions they need to answer in this one after a hideous defense last year. This team gave up almost 36 points per game including 52 to Liberty and 51 to Middle Tennessee. The Monarchs are using three different quarterbacks and pretty much a rebuilt group of skill position guys. They've got a couple of good transfers from Virginia Tech, but there's not a lot to like here. This is Norfolk State's Super Bowl as the two campuses are six miles or so apart. I think the road team can make things interesting here. 

SHSU went 6-5 last year under K.C. Keeler and it's looking to improve upon that. The offense wasn't the issue with 30 points per game scored. One could point to the defense that struggled to get stops when it was time. The quarterback position comes down to Ty Brock and Eric Schmid. Whomever wins the gig will throw to Nathan Stewart who has had three straight 1,000 yard seasons. The offensive line is a little shaky, but this offense should be able to continue to hum. On defense, nine starters are back led by Erick Fowler up front. 11 of the team's top 13 tacklers return. They've picked up a couple of impact transfers in Toneil Carter from Texas and Trace Mascorro from UTEP. New Mexico went 3-9 last year under Bob Davie and has 10 starters back. They are led by Tevaka Tuioti who was one of three quarterbacks to see time. The Lobos don't have a ton of talent on offense and instead rely on their system to get by. They have to do that because the defense is rather porous. They allowed over 36 points per game last year and have just two starters back. Last year they rolled Incarnate Word 62-30 but I'd say the Bearkats are better. New Mexico went 1-5 at home last season. I think this is too many points and there's a good chance SHSU wins outright.

It's amazing how far Army has come since going 2-10 in 2015. They are over three touchdown favorites against a horrific Rice team to open up the college football season and I'm not batting an eye at it. The Black Knights have seven starters back on offense and four back on defense. The offense figures to be stong with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Connor Slomka and Kell Walker in the backfield. Usually, I don't like to back the triple option teams when there's extra time to prepare for it because teams look good against it, but this is a mismatch. Last year Army lost 34-14 to Duke in week one. They beat Rice on the road back in 2017 49-12 in a game that was 35-0 at halftime. The Owls went 2-11 last year and return six starters on each side of the ball. Their quarterback situation stinks and so does their offensive line. This team doesn't score a ton and has a leaky defense too. Last year they lost by 14, 18, 32, 19, 24, 15 and 32 on the road. Army has Michigan in week two but this is one of those schools that doesn't do the lookahead thing. They are a focused bunch and should be able to blow out this Rice team. Rice has covered just three of their last nine non-conference games.

The Jackrabbits went 10-3 last year in the Missouri Valley. Two of those losses came to the eventual national champion North Dakota State. This team lost their quarterback Taryn Christion which is a massive concern, but there are some options to replace him. Redshirt freshman J'Bore Gibbs is going to get first crack and he's got a new coordinator in Jason Eck who was the team's offensive line coach. There are a ton of weapons with pretty much all of the skill positions back outside of Isaac Wallace. Pierre Strong Jr and Cade Johnson are two of the best. The other concern on offense is the offensive line which has a few guys they have to replace. On defense, there's a new coordinator as well, but the front seven is strong. Get to know the names Ryan Earith and Krockett Krollikowski. This side of the ball has issues in the secondary with just one returning starter. Luckily Minnesota's offense is more predicated on the run game with Mohamed Ibrahim and Rodney Smith among others. Under center will be Tanner Morgan who had nine touchdowns and six interceptions for the Golden Gophers. The defense has seven starters back so they figure to be a stiff challenge for the Jackrabbits to move the ball on. Still, this team has some issues and has struggled at times at home. They only beat Fresno and Indiana by 7 points apiece there to go along with a 17 point home loss to Iowa. Last year SDSU's FBS game at Iowa State was cancelled due to weather. I think as long as we get two touchdowns or more, then the underdog is worth a look.

Bowling Green last year went 3-9 and has decided to hire Scot Loeffler as their new head coach. This could be the worst hire in college football because he's proven to be a mediocre to poor offensive coordinator everywhere he's gone from Temple to Boston College to Auburn. The Falcons have seven starters back on offense but Jarret Doege was supposed to be under center. He took his talents to West Virginia where he'll play for them. Luckily, Darius Wade came over from Boston College and he lends some credibility to the position. There's some decent talent at some of the skill positions so maybe they can put some points. Defensively, this team is absolutely hideous. Last year they gave up 40 points per game including 58 to Oregon, 45 to Maryland and 44 to Buffalo. The Falcons played Eastern Kentucky of the OVC in 2018 and barely won 42-35. Morgan State went 4-7 last year and they have a new head coach in former Michigan RB Tyrone Wheatley. The Bears beat North Carolina A&T and had four close losses. They have 17 starters back and a new energy with Wheatley as coach. DeAndre Harris and D.J. Golatt are under center and each were able to provide something different. The defense is where the strength is with the top three interception guys and the #2 and #3 tacklers back. Bowling Green is nothing special so why are they three touchdown favorites. I understand the MEAC is nothing special, but come on with this. Give me the underdog.

Robert Morris went 2-9 last year in their first year under Bernard Clark Jr. The offense averaged just under 25 points per game and allowed nearly 44. They lost 49-46 to Bryant and 40-39 to Eastern Kentucky who is a really good squad in the OVC. The Colonels have nine starters back on offense and eight on defense so things could be looking up for them. One of the guys back on O is Matthew Gonzalez who is one of the best FCS tight ends in the country. The offensive line has four guys to rely on with Terence Stephens running the ball for 831 yards. The issues come on defense as we said. Last year, RMU did not play any FBS opponents, but lost 73-7 on the road to James Madison on a Thursday night. On the other side you've got a Buffalo team with just eight starters back total. The Bulls are without all-world QB Tyree Jackson as well as WRs Anthony Johnson and KJ Osborn who transferred to Miami. Matt Myers will be the new quarterback and it looks like he'll be without leading receiver Antonio Nunn who had 26 catches last year. The team will rely on RB Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks who combined for nearly 2,000 yards rushing between the two of them. This side of the ball has a lot of rebuilding to do. The defense loses Khalil Hodge and has just one returning starter on each level. To me, this seems like a lot of points. Last year a better Bulls team was a 44 point favorite against Delaware State and they only won 48-10. Yes, RMU is no great shakes, but I really think that they can be semi-competitive. Give me the almost seven touchdowns with the underdog.

The final game of the NFL season will feature the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams facing off in Super Bowl LIII. These two teams last faced each other back in 2016, a game the Patriots won 26-10. Tom Brady became the NFL's career leader in victories with that win, No. 201, outdueling then-rookie Jared Goff, who completed less than half of his passes (14 of 32) for a measly 161 yards with a touchdown but also two interceptions.

These teams are no stranger to the Super Bowl stage either, as they met in 2002 in the Superdome for Super Bowl XXXVI. New England won 20-17 as Bill Belichick and Brady got their first Lombardi Trophy and the Patriots' dynasty was officially launched. Brady's numbers weren't spectacular against the then-St. Louis Rams but outplayed Kurt Warner as the New England's defense held the "Greatest Show on Turf" and Adam Vinatieri kicked the game-winning, 48-yard field goal as time expired.

Fast-forward to today, and the Patriots continue to make it to Super Bowls with Brady leading the way. This marks New England's third straight Super Sunday appearance and fourth in the past five years. This version of the Patriots enters the game riding a four-game winning streak after losing back-to-back games to the Dolphins and Steelers. Brady and company have been rolling recently, putting up 116 points in the last three games with rookie running back Sony Michel doing his part. The defense has played well in its own right, but gave up a combined 59 points to the Chargers and the Chiefs on the way to the Super Bowl.

The offense goes as Brady goes, but I could argue that Michel, along fellow backs Rex Burkhead and James White are more important. Heck, throw James Develin in as well, as he's usually money around the goal line. Each RB plays his role very well and is ready when called upon. White was busy as a pass catcher in the Divisional Round win over the Chargers while Burkhead scored both the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter and the game-winner in overtime against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. And of course there's Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski as Brady's other primary targets in the passing game.

I do have questions about New England's defense, but we all know that Bill Belichick has had plenty of time to get his guys ready. I really like the secondary, which is led by Stephon Gilmore, one of the best cornerbacks in football. The front seven isn't exactly littered with a ton of household names, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores finds a way to get the job done. The Patriots have given up a total of 60 rushing yards this postseason.

On the other side, you have the Rams who also have won four in a row after losing in Weeks 14 and 15. The defense has risen to the occasion, holding the Cowboys and Rams to 98 rushing yards combined. Los Angeles' defense has plenty of star power including the likes of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh up front. If there's a weakness on this side of the ball it's with the linebacking corps, which could impact how defensive coordinator Wade Phillips chooses to defend against Gronkowski and New England's pass-catching running backs. The Rams' secondary has plenty of talent, but offseason acquisitions Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters have had inconsistent seasons. Phillips has plenty of experience, however, so expect him to have his unit ready to play.

Regardless of how well the defense fares, Los Angeles' offense will need to hold up its end of the bargain. That starts with how effective Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson are running the ball, which will help the Rams control time of possession. Gurley hasn't looked like himself since early December, which makes Anderson's late-season resurgence even more significant. Jared Goff has had a nice season, but the jury is still out on him as far as getting the job done when the pressure is on and if he's more a product of head coach Sean McVay's play-calling than anything. Goff does have weapons to throw to, starting with Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, but this could be the game where the offense really misses Cooper Kupp in the slot. Josh Reynolds has been a capable replacement and the tight ends also have stepped up on occasion.

As I've said all along during this postseason, I'm not picking against the Patriots. Yes, they lost to the Eagles last year in the Super Bowl, but it took an unreal performance by Nick Foles. I don't see that kind of effort coming from Goff. New England has covered 39 of its last 56 games including 19 of the last 26 against teams with a winning record. To me, this one shows that the wisdom of Belichick is greater than the potential of McVay. The Rams will be back, but the Patriots win this one.

New England beat the Chiefs at home 43-40 back on Oct. 14. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions in that one and the Patriots racked up 500 yards of offense. The Patriots looked like the defending AFC champs last week in a 41-28 win over the Chargers in which they approached 500 yards of offense once again. James White was a huge factor in the passing game and Tom Brady was surgical. I'm not the biggest fan of the defense, but the unit makes plays when it matters. It was impressive to see the plan for that side of the ball considering Brian Flores may or may not be the new head coach of the Dolphins... wink wink.

The Chiefs also were very good in their 31-13 win over the Colts. The more impressive aspect was a Kansas City defense that held Indianapolis under 300 yards of total offense. It was the Chiefs' best defensive effort in quite a while yardage-wise. The run game worked well with 180 rushing yards, which took a little pressure off Mahomes. Damien Williams filled in admirably once again for Kareem Hunt making the running back position not as much of a weakness.

I said it last week and I will continue to say that I will not pick against the Patriots in the AFC side of the playoffs until I see them fall. I'm not a believer in Andy Reid in big games and think Bill Belichick and his staff will outmaneuver him. Brady still has another Super Bowl or two in him. It's not Mahomes' time yet and he'll throw a key interception in a loss. 

These two met back on Nov. 4 in New Orleans with the home team winning 45-35. The Saints were up 35-17 at halftime as both teams were able to throw it around the field with relative ease. Since then there's been some changes to both teams. The Rams' defense played one of its best games of the season last week holding Dallas to just 50 rushing yards on their way to a 30-22 victory. C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley got whatever they wanted against a very good Cowboys defense that seemed helpless at times against Los Angeles' offense.

The Saints, meanwhile, struggled mightily to beat the Eagles 20-14 at home. They found themselves down 14-0 very quickly and it could have been much worse had it not been for a Nick Foles interception. New Orleans' offense moved up and down the field, but it only translated to 20 points. Still, you have to think the Saints like this matchup as Drew Brees will look for Michael Thomas early and often once more. Thomas embarrassed Rams cornerback Marcus Peters in the first meeting. This will be New Orleans' fourth straight at home and that's a huge advantage despite the fact that the team hasn't covered any of these games. I think Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram could get some more work in this one as they open things up against a Los Angeles defense that can be run on.

With regards to this matchup, I'm heavily leaning to the home team. The Saints' defense has been very strong and I like Marshon Lattimore to lock down either Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods. There won't be any rust to knock off for New Orleans in this one. Brees getting back to the Super Bowl in the twilight of his career also gives plenty of people something to write about over the next two weeks.

It pains me to say this as an Eagles fan, but once again I like Dallas on Saturday. The Cowboys didn't play great in their win over the Seahawks last week, but Pete Carroll's gameplan was perplexing to say the least. They continued to try and run the ball instead of unleashing Russell Wilson which is what everyone said Seattle had to do to win the game. The Cowboys defense is going to be the difference in this one as LA limped down the stretch. The Rams lost their last two games against playoff caliber opponents falling 15-6 at Chicago and 30-23 at home to the Eagles. Don't forget how many Cowboys fans will be at this game considering Dallas training camp is in California. Todd Gurley did not show up on the injury report so that probably means he's healthy for the first time since the Philly loss. The Rams defense has not materialized to what we thought it was going to be in the preseason. I'll take the touchdown and say thank you very much.

The biggest spread of the weekend features the defending champs heading to Chicago. The storyline is fascinating with the Bears unnecessarily keeping their starters in last week to beat the Vikings which opened the door for Philly. The Eagles have won three straight and five of their last six overall including victories against the Rams and Texans. Nick Foles has run Doug Pederson's offense very well and the defense is finally playing up to their potential. The return of Darren Sproles has been a big boost too as they can rotate him in with Josh Adams and Wendell Smallwood. Even with the recent success, the secondary is still very patchwork and exploitable. My problem is that I don't think the Bears can take advantage of it. If you've followed my articles, I've faded the Bears on the road whenever I can because I think their offense isn't that great. This one is at home and they'll use Tarik Cohen a ton I'm sure in a bunch of different ways. Chicago's defense at home has been lights out and Khalil Mack is doing great things for the front seven. They clamped down big time on the Rams about a month ago in a 15-6 home win. The Eagles won't mind the cold and will have the experience of last year's Super Bowl run to help them. Foles is playing superbly right now and so is the offensive line that blocked Houston and the Rams very well. The defending champs have an upset in them and it'll close out the Wild Card round.

The Dallas Cowboys swear that they will be playing their starters for this one, but the Vegas line doesn't seem to reflect it. Even if they decide to sit some players, it's not like they can sit everyone. It looks like Zack Martin is one who will be out, but Ezekiel Elliott swears he will play. The team didn't exactly light up the awful Buccaneers racking up only 232 yards of offense against them. Jerry Jones has said he wants to see better from that side of the ball before the postseason. The Giants had won four of five at one point in November, but they've lost their last two falling to the Titans and Colts. Saquon Barkley is losing steam and Odell Beckham isn't 100%. We'll see if the wide receiver plays, but there's really no reason for him to. The defense is a bit banged up with Kerry Wynn and Alec Ogletree both dealing with stuff. I'll bite and take a chance that Dallas keeps their starters in long enough to build a lead and hold on at the end.

I've faded the Bears a lot on the road and I'm going to do it again this Sunday. Chicago is coming off two emotional home wins over the Rams and Packers and now head to sleepy San Francisco to face a 49ers team that has won two straight. Chicago is only 3-3 against the spread away from home, losing to the Giants a few weeks ago. It was a massive party for the Bears after last week's game as the team clinched the division so focus could be a little bit of an issue. San Francisco does scare me with Nick Mullens under center although he's been better as of late. The 49ers' defense isn't that great, but they've held five of their last six opponents to under 220 passing yards. I think we could get an ugly, low-scoring game, which means the home team is worth a look. 

If you have been following my picks all season you know that I'm unreasonably interested in the Dolphins and they've treated me really well. Miami is 7-7 and has a very small chance to make the playoffs and will need a lot of help to get there. The Dolphins have taken care of business at home with a win over the Patriots two weeks ago. Ryan Tannehill is coming off a rough game at Minnesota, but I think he'll do better here against the Jags. Jacksonville has packed it in on the season and has shown little to no interest in playing hard. The Jaguars have scored just 28 points over the last three weeks and don't have what it takes to exploit Miami's defense. I think the Dolphins can run up and down the field on the Jags and if they score early, this one could get really, really ugly.

Pardon me if I don't think everything is fine and dandy with the Vikings after their win over the Dolphins. Minnesota has lost three of its last five and Kirk Cousins has not been showing himself to be worth the money he got this past offseason. The Vikings have thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three straight and four of their last six. These two teams met back on Nov. 4 with Minnesota winning at home, 24-9. Detroit could have possibly have beaten both Arizona and Buffalo these past two weeks. This is the Lions' final home game so I think we see a better effort. Minnesota can't afford to lose this one because of the tight race for the wild-card spots in the NFC. The Vikings have covered just nine of their last 22 on the road. I think Detroit can win this one outright but give me the points. 

I've tried to fade the Bears several times this season and have had mixed results. They are 9-4 against the spread, but their offense doesn't scare me a ton. Mitchell Trubisky is a very hot and cold quarterback and doesn't have a ton of weapons around him at the skill positions. Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard form a nice duo in the backfield and Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel are just okay as wide receivers. It's Chicago's defense that continues to carry the team thanks to a ton of turnovers and the ability to put pressure on the quarterback. Green Bay is coming off a 34-20 win over the Falcons and the defense has perked up a bit as of late. The Packers have given up 20 points each of the last two games. Aaron Rodgers is a guy I want to back in underdog situations whenever I can. The first meeting went to the Packers way back in Week 1 although the Bears dominated the game. I still think the road team is worth a look here.

Last week's loss by the Broncos scared me big time. Their offense isn't good enough to struggle even against a bad defense. They looked pedestrian in San Francisco last week and it showed in the statistics. Cleveland has won three of its last four and the defense is getting a little bit better. Baker Mayfield is capable of lighting Denver's defense up if given the time as it looked bad against Nick Mullens without top cornerback Chris Harris Jr. Bradley Roby is having a tough year sO Jarvis Landry and/or Antonio Callaway could have a big game. Cleveland is 8-5 against the spread this season. Right now the Browns may actually be the better team than the Broncos.

The Lions have lost two straight and five of their last six as they play out the string of another season without the playoffs most likely. Detroit's offense has sputtered a bit down the stretch with turnover problems and a lack of balance. They hope to get Kerryon Johnson back, but Marvin Jones' absence has put a lot on Kenny Golladay and he's struggled with the spotlight. He'll get a lot of Patrick Peterson in this one so he could be a non-factor. Arizona has held each of their last seven opponents to less then 250 yards passing. The Cardinals have to be feeling good after winning in Green Bay. David Johnson and Chase Edmonds were able to get a lot done on the ground which took pressure off Josh Rosen. I think Arizona is worth a look in this one.

The Ravens are going to be pretty sneaky when it comes to the AFC playoffs if they make it. The team has won three straight and has seen their offense come alive with Lamar Jackson under center. They have scored 24 or more in all three of his starts although two of those came at home against the Bengals and Raiders. The defense is also one of the best in football. They held the Falcons to just 97 yards passing in Atlanta last time out. This squad also kept the Titans to just 106 yards and zero points. Kansas City is coming off a 40-33 win at Oakland which gives me pause as to how good their defense will be against the better teams in the league. You can't allow the Raiders to rack up over 400 yards of offense and expect me to take you seriously. The team has struggled as of late to cover games going just 1-3-1 in their last five against the spread. There's also a situational angle here with a home game against the Chargers coming up next. KC has to keep winning to hold off the Patriots, but maybe there's a small eye on Thursday night's affair. I think this one is a bit tighter then you'd think.

Things are going horrendously for the Panthers who have lost four straight with three of those coming on the road. They are finishing up a tough stretch of four away from home over a five week span. Cam Newton is a turnover machine and he threw a bunch more interceptions last week in a 24-17 loss at Tampa Bay. The defense is getting gashed right now too as the secondary just isn't good enough. They go to Cleveland to face a Browns team that came back to earth a bit last week in Houston. They scored just 13 points and managed 31 yards on the ground in the loss. Cleveland's offense is capable of so much more and I think Baker Mayfield bounces back nicely. The Panthers are 1-5 against the spread this season on the road while Cleveland is 4-2 ATS at home. I think the Browns add to the misery of the Panthers.

I have used this article to talk about how the Dolphins have been criminally underrated by Vegas. I'm now going to do the same with the Bills who have been very profitable for me. Buffalo has won two of their last three games and came away with a close 21-17 loss at Miami last time out. Josh Allen is putting up some very good numbers both through the air and on the ground. He should see more opportunities against a Jets team that they beat 41-10 in New York around a month ago. The Bills defense is also a really good unit that has held the last three opponents to 21 points or less. The Jets have lost six straight games with four of those contests being by double digits. It looks like Sam Darnold will be back, but how much will it help. They don't run it well and don't have a ton of weapons. I think the Bills can win this one rather easily as well.

The Dolphins have been a very profitable team for me and in a way, I think they will continue that trend. Miami has lost four of their last five with the win being at home against the Jets in a 13-6 game way back almost a month ago. This team is rather underwhelming on offense with Kenyan Drake not at 100%. I do like Ryan Tannehill, but he's about to face a really good defense and face them twice in the same month. The Bills have won two straight and are really glad to have Josh Allen back under center. He instantly made a difference last week against the Jaguars and will also do so here. Buffalo's defense travels and I think they do so once again here too. The Bills won in Miami last year and I think there's a good chance they do so again this year.

This is one of those situational plays that I'm always talking about. Houston has won eight straight since an 0-3 start and they have a short week to prepare for a suddenly hot Cleveland Browns team. Much like my Dolphins selection last week, the Browns are the cozy little team in the middle of a divisional game sandwich for Houston as they host the Colts next week in a bigger contest. There's a lot to like about this home team, but I think they aren't as focused for this one as they have been. Cleveland has won two straight beating the Falcons and Bengals. Their offense is smoking hot and Baker Mayfield is playing really well. The defense scares me a bit, but they've stepped up during this little win streak. Pretty much every trend you could think of backs the home team so I'm going the other way with Cleveland.

The Broncos are playing some good football now and have an outside shot at the playoffs with the remaining schedule that they have left. Next up is the Bengals who couldn't be any lower then they've been as of late. Andy Dalton is out and now Jeff Driskel is in and I actually like that. Driskel may not be as good, but maybe things won't be as stale on offense. It looks like AJ Green may be back and that'll help things out as well. Denver is not the same team on the road as they are at home. Cincy's defense has been horrendous lately, but Denver's offense is really inconsistent with Case Keenum under center. This is a little bit of a feel play that will feel awful when the Bengals lay another egg.

Virginia Tech needs this game to get into a bowl game to extend their streak. The Hokies poured a lot of emotion into last week against their rival Virginia and picked up an overtime win. Now they have to get ready for a Marshall team that has basically been told that they are sacrificial lambs for Virginia Tech. This is a Thundering Herd team with a good defense and a competent enough offense to make things interesting. The Hokies problems weren't masked last week, it's just UVA messed up. I think the Herd can win this game outright so I will take the points. 

New Orleans is absolutely steamrolling opponents lately and it's hard to get in front of that train, but I am going to on Thursday. The Saints have had a very tough stretch of teams with the Vikings, Rams and Eagles among their opponents since the end of October. Now they are beginning the first of three away from home with the Cowboys. I know the Saints have to keep winning with the other teams closing in on them atop the NFC. Dallas has won three straight and I've tried to fade them the last two weeks to no success so now I'm going to back them. New Orleans has a very good run defense, but I argue they haven't faced too many teams committed to it as much as Dallas is. Dak Prescott is playing a little better now that he has Amari Cooper out wide. The defense has also been an underrated part of this recent resurrection. The corners are pretty solid and Leighton Vander Esch is a star in the making. To me, this is a little bit too big for a game that could be played once again in the playoffs. Dallas is 4-1 at home against the spread and haven't been a home underdog of this much in quite awhile.

The Colts have won four straight entering this one against the Dolphins. Their offense has been clicking with Andrew Luck firing away at will. I don't trust their defense, but they've been doing enough to get the wins as of late. Indy did allow 28 points at Oakland just a few weeks ago so they can be beaten. In comes the Dolphins who have lost three of their last four, but are coming off the bye week. With that time off, they've been able to get Ryan Tannehill healthy which should help them on offense. Frank Gore is going up against his former team and the defense will present a challenge. Miami has held five of their last six opponents to less then 250 yards passing and that included the likes of the Packers and Texans on the road. This is a divisional game sandwich for the home team who hosted the Jaguars and Titans and will be playing at Jacksonville and Houston coming up. I think focus could be a little bit of an issue.

The Bills had a nice bye week to rest up for the stretch run and the time off means Josh Allen will be back under center. The last we saw this team, they won 41-10 at the Jets two weeks ago. This defense is absolutely fierce against the run and the pass. They are also as healthy as you can get for the most part. Last year, these two played in the playoffs with the Jags winning 10-3 at home in a game that saw Jacksonville rack up just 230 yards of offense. The Jags have lost six in a row and put a lot into their loss against the Steelers last week. The team stifled Pittsburgh for three quarters, but had no faith in their quarterback and the defense struggled to get stops. I think they come out flat as can be in this one. Buffalo will be jacked for this one and may even win outright.

It'll be Colt McCoy under center for the Redskins as they take on rival Dallas. These two teams played a month ago in DC with the Redskins winning 20-17. In that one the Redskins had more rushing yards and the Cowboys missed a late field goal to lose. My concern with the Skins is that they've suddenly gone from a team great against the run to a team that has struggled mightily to stop it. I tried to fade Dallas last week and it didn't work out. Even with the two game win streak, I'm still not all of a sudden buying them as a viable contender in the NFC. I think this is a lower scoring game with Washington's offense maybe looking a little smoother with McCoy who has been there for years.

The Bears defense has been absolutely incredible this season especially with Khalil Mack roaming around. They are holding teams to under 80 yards rushing per game, but that doesn't matter for the Lions. These two teams played in Chicago just 11 days ago with the Bears winning 34-22. I took the under in that one and unfortunately it didn't hit. Mitchell Trubisky had a good game, but it looks like Chase Daniel is under center for the road team. I don't think the Bears skill position guys are good enough to overcome a backup quarterback. Detroit is coming off a 20-19 win over the Panthers. The defense clamped down on the run. On offense, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson look to be out so Kenny Golladay and Theo Riddick will have to step up. I think the Lions can win this one outright. They are used to the Thanksgiving quick turnaround.

Pardon me if I don't think that the Cowboys are back after that win in Philly last week. That game told me more about the Eagles then it did Dallas. They now hit the road for the third time over a four week span to play the Falcons down in Atlanta. The Dallas offense relied heavily on Zeke Elliott and got just enough from Dak Prescott to win. The Falcons have won three of their last four and are coming off a tough loss at Cleveland last time out. They are actually getting a little healthier with Deion Jones being activated and he's going to really help the middle of that defense. Last year the Falcons won this game 27-7. At home, I believe Atlanta's the better team and I think they win this one easily.

It's a divisional battle as the Colts host the Titans. The Colts have won three straight and no coincidence that it's because Andrew Luck and his weapons are healthy. The team has discovered a run game to take a little heat off the signal caller as well. Indy's defense does scare me, but they've done well against the run and making the Titans one dimensional will help. Tennessee is coming off an impressive 34-10 win at home against New England. The Titans have won two straight after losing three in a row. The last time they got a huge win was when they beat the Eagles before that losing streak. They are 2-3 on the road averaging just 17.6 points in those games. The Colts have won 14 of their last 19 at home in this series, covering 12 of those. I think the home team gets the win.

You couldn't get the Jaguars any lower than right now. Jacksonville has lost five straight, including a 29-26 loss at Indianapolis last week. The defense didn't make the stops when it had to in that one and once again the offense didn't do its part. Even with all of that, I still think the Jags are worth a look at home. This is a team that's got a lot of pride and they beat the Steelers twice last year. I'm sure that's part of the reason why this line is so big. It's hard to find anything wrong with Pittsburgh during its current five-game winning streak. They've gotten some extra days to prepare for this one considering they last played on Thursday night. I think Jalen Ramsey is going to do some good work on Antonio Brown which will force Big Ben to find some other weapons. I do like the Steelers' defense too. It's a really underrated unit. The Steelers have been a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just five times over the last three seasons, covering just one of them. I like the home team to pick things up in this one.

Lafayette has a chance to make the Sun Belt championship game with wins in their final two contests. They've won four of their last six and done so with a solid offense and a defense that makes stops when it has to. They've scored 36, 47 and 66 in their last three games as they rely on a ground game. The good news is Trey Ragas will be available. The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven with the win coming over Alabama State from the FCS level. They've allowed 38 points in each of their last three weeks and have struggled to stop anyone defensively. They seemed to have packed it in so I'll take the team at home that's going to be a lot more motivated.

The Vols have won two straight and are one win away from bowl eligibility. Last week they took advantage of an unfocused Kentucky team in a 24-7 win. Their defense has allowed 37 points the last three weeks and is in good form right now to take on an inconsistent Missouri team. The Tigers have also won two straight, but nearly lost at home to Vanderbilt. The Vols have committed just four turnovers the last six weeks. This is simply a momentum play on a team that should be motivated on Senior Day to get the win against a Tigers team very capable of laying an egg.