- Wichita is 1-0 after a 76-59 win over Lipscomb that saw 71 possessions. 

- Paul Mills has a system that promotes running on offense. 

- WKU is 1-0 after a 90-64 win over Kentucky Wesleyan that had 76 possessions. 

- Steve Lutz is another new coach that wants to run. 

The Illini have a very intriguing team in the Big 10 with three returning starters and some transfers led by Quincy Guerrier, Marcus Domask and Justin Harmon from Utah Valley. Brad Underwood teams run and put up a lot of points against overmatched teams. They faced this EIU team last year in the opener and won 87-57 in a 76 possession contest. They scored 85 or more six times last season in the non-conference. EIU has absolutely no size to counter the athleticism that will come at them. This one should be a blowout. 

Vandy enters the tournament with a little bit of confidence after wins over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commodores are quickening their pace and have scored 87 and 83 in their last two games. Defense is still an issue checking in 295th in 2pt% and 265th in 3pt%. These two teams played back on January 15th with the Razorbacks winning 75-55 at home. Arkansas features the 45th quickest tempo and has an average possession length of 16.8 seconds. They have scored 85 or more in three of their last four. This game should see plenty of pace so give me the over here. 

Gonzaga is in the title game once again and they are taking on St. Mary's for a third time. The Zags beat the Gaels 90-60 at their place back on February 8th and 86-76 at home just a couple of weeks ago. They are one of the most efficient offenses in the country checking in 3rd in 2pt% and 5th in 3pt%. Gonzaga is coming off a 81-77 win over San Francisco last time out and their defense was a little leaky. Over their last six games, they've given up 75 or more four times. I think this line is going down because of what people saw last night in a 51-50 game against BYU. St. Mary's defense has struggled all year against the better teams and BYU had one of their worst efforts on offense last night. I don't know if I see that happening again tonight with the Zags who have a lot more weapons. If this thing gets tight, then free throws come into play as well. 

St. Mary's gets BYU in the semifinals of the WCC. They are coming off a 2OT win 89-82 over Pepperdine in the quarterfinals. The Gaels defense is nowhere near as good as it used to be. They allowed 80 or more six times in WCC play. The offense is 58th in 2pt%, 5th in 3pt% and 48th in FT%. The two meetings with BYU were high scoring with one being 87-84 in OT and the other 81-79. The Cougars are ridiculously efficient on offense. They shoot the best in the country from three and ninth best from two point land. BYU has put up 80 or more seven times over this current nine game win streak. Yoeli Childs makes such a difference for them and could do so once again on Monday. Give me the over here. 

Wright State plays at a really fast tempo checking in 32nd as they take on UIC on Monday. They take an average of 15.8 seconds per offensive possession and shoot the ball really well from long range. The Raiders have scored 70 or more in every conference game except for two. The team's defense has been a mixed bag. In their two meetings with the Flames, UIC won 76-72 at home and lost 75-58 at WSU. Each game saw 75 or more possessions so there will be plenty of chances to add to this total. The Flames are 39th in defensive average possession length checking in at 16.8 seconds. They play good defense against the three, but turn the ball over a ton. UIC's defense has struggled at times against some of the better offenses in the conference. I think this one should be close and see plenty of possessions.

The Tribe are the 2 seed in the CAA tournament and closed the regular season with a flourish winning five straight after a three game losing streak. They get Elon in this neutral court game whom they beat in the regular season finale at home 86-79 in a 72 possession game. Meeting one was at the start of the CAA campaign with the road team winning 74-73 at Elon. The Tribe's offense is really efficient right now with the 22nd ranked 2pt% and 76th ranked 3pt%. Nathan Knight was named POY and is by far the best player in the conference. William and Mary actually played in this gym back in December losing to St. Francis of PA 78-72 so it's not unfamiliar surroundings to them. Elon wants to play a slower style, but has been dragged into "quicker" games against teams who play with tempo. Case in point, the 72 possession game in Williamsburg and the 72 possession contest vs. JMU. I think this one is an over on Sunday. 

Duke is 2-3 in their last five games as they host UNC. You may remember about one month ago, the Blue Devils went to Chapel Hill and won a wild one 98-96 in overtime. The Heels had a huge lead evaporate on them, but they were able to find some offense. The Blue Devils are coming off an 88-69 home win over NC State extending their streak to three straight at home where they put up 85 or more. Duke's pace means we should see plenty of possessions especially at home. Yes, they have good numbers defensively, but they've struggled against offenses with a pulse. UNC has won three straight scoring 85, 92 and 93 points. They've started to figure things out a little bit and have the inside-outside duo with Anthony and Brooks. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points.

Creighton overs at home are one of my favorite plays of the season. At home in conference play, they've scored 92, 59, 78, 77, 94, 93, 81 and 91 points. The Jays are the 9th best team in terms of three point FG percentage and are top 50 in both 2pt and FT shooting as well. The defense isn't great, but it's also not terrible either. They don't force many turnovers and beat Seton Hall on the road 87-82 earlier this year in a 76 possession game that saw Myles Powell shoot 3-16 from the field. That won't happen again this time. Seton Hall is 3-3 in their last six and 7-1 on the road in Big East play. They have scored 70 or more in every one of those contests. Both teams want to play with some pace and Creighton blisters the nets in Omaha. Give me the over here as I think it sails over the total. 

Wake Forest is playing some good basketball down the stretch as they play at NC State. The Demon Deacons recently picked up home wins over Duke and Notre Dame and put up 83 in a 10 point loss in Chapel Hill. This offense has scored 75 or more in four straight contests. They are hitting 75% of their FT's and almost 35% of their threes. The Demon Deacon defense has been rather porous on the road especially in conference where they gave up 90 at Duke, 90 at Notre Dame, 86 at Louisville and the aforementioned 93 at UNC. These two played back on December 7th in Winston Salem with the Wolfpack winning 91-82. NC State has played with a faster than average pace. They are coming off an 88-69 loss to Duke and need a solid effort to help them make the tourney. I think this one should see plenty of points on Friday.

We're going to take a really rare under in a game that could see under 60 possessions. These two teams played twice during the regular season with the first game being a 54 possession affair at Stetson and a 61 possession tilt at home. The Flames have the 352nd quickest tempo and are taking an average of 21 seconds per offensive possession while opponents are taking 18.3 seconds on defense. This team is lockdown on D and in conference play has allowed 55 points or less seven times at home. They want to drag things out as much as possible. Stetson checks in with the 347th quickest tempo and 342nd in average possession length at 19.9 seconds. The two scores of the games these two played were 48-43 and 77-49. The Hatters have played four games below 60 possessions in conference play. I just don't know how this goes over the total on Thursday. 

Rhode Island is in must win mode now as they host Dayton on Wednesday. The Rams play with the 40th quickest tempo and the 39th quickest offensive possession time. They go as Dowtin, Russell and Martin go at Guard along with Langevine at center. These two played under a month ago and Dayton won 81-67 in a 74 possession game. URI shot horrifically in that game, but had 18 offensive rebounds which prevented things from getting worse. Obi Toppin and Trey Landers picked up double-doubles in the win. Dayton shoots 63.1% from two point land and has put up glossy numbers on offense. Their defense has been pretty good as well with some of their "worse" efforts being on the road. I think this one goes over the total on Wednesday.

Arkansas plays with the 55th quickest tempo in the country as they host LSU. The Razorbacks want to get out and run at home as evidenced by them scoring 75 or more seven times there. They don't turn it over and are relatively efficient from two. The team is the best against the three but are vulnerable up close and are rather awful on the boards. LSU plays with a quick pace and is 16th in the country in two point shooting percentage. They have struggled on the road giving up 80 or more six times in SEC play. They are 283rd against the three pointer so we'll see if Arkansas can take advantage. These two played back on 1/8 in Baton Rouge with the Tigers winning 79-77. I think we could see something similar in this one. 

ODU hosts UTSA on Wednesday night and they lost to the Roadrunners at home back on 2/6 in an 85-81 overtime game that saw Jhivvan Jackson go nuts. He and Keaton Wallace combined for 66 of the team's 85 total points on that day. The two teams went to overtime tied at 71 in a game that saw 81 possessions. UTSA has a horrific defense and teams have an average possession time of 16.7 seconds which is the 28th quickest in the country. On the road they've allowed 75 or more in every contest during conference play. UTSA's offense struggles to shoot, but they do make their free throws. Old Dominion's offense is rather horrific so that's a bit of a worry, but they've been better at home. In Conference USA play, they scored 70 or more five times including last time out in an 85-80 overtime win. I just think that they'll do some work on the Roadrunners and this one should go over the total again. 

Tennessee has had some lower totals as of late and I've been able to take advantage of them at Auburn and at Arkansas. The Vols offense is underwhelming having scored less than 70 in five straight games and they play with a slower pace, but on the road they've given up 86 at Arkansas, 73 at Auburn and 86 at Mississippi State. Kentucky's in the biggest of sandwich spots coming off the 7 point win over Auburn and a road game at Florida next. Still, at home, they've had some success at getting to the rack. These two played a 64 possession game in Knoxville with UK winning 77-64. They shot 50% from three and missed just three free throws. Tennessee's offense struggled, but they also had 12 offensive rebounds and just eight turnovers. I realize this is a lower total and I know why, but I also think it can go over. 

Buffalo plays with the seventh quickest pace and the 4th shortest offensive possession time. The Bulls have played every game at home except for one at 70+ possessions. Their defense has been rather awful lately which means a mediocre Redhawks offense could find some room. UB gave up 86 at home to Akron and 80 at Ohio last week. Miami Ohio has won two straight and is playing with some confidence putting up over 70 in each of those victories. The defense doesn't travel though with them allowing 70 or more in all but one contest. These two played in Oxford back on January 10th with the Bulls winning 83-78 in a 78 possession game. I could see something similar at home for UB who will be a lot more comfortable. 

Another trend I'm going to continue to play is the first half over in Gonzaga. It hit with about 3 minutes left in the first half last time out and now we're getting a lower number. I stayed off this play when these two played in St. Mary's and that hit easily as well. The Gaels defense hasn't been as stout as it's been known for in the past. They gave up 72 at Santa Clara last time out and have also allowed 79 at BYU and 84 at home to that same team. Now I'm not expecting a 90-60 game like what happened in Moraga, but I do think the Zags offense continues to succeed. This team is usually good for 45-50 points in a half and I think the Gaels can do their part as well. Give me this first half over.

Green Bay plays with the 10th quickest tempo in the country and have the quickest offensive possession length at 14.5 seconds. They are 21st in three point percentage offense and 31st in FT% and are rather porous in both defensive categories as well. At home they've scored 80 or more five times in conference and beat CSU on the road 78-74 in a 71 possession game. That is notable because the Vikings don't go at a quick pace and don't have a very good offense either. Opponents have the 34th quickest possession time against them which means we'll see this thing crack 70+ I'm guessing. On the road they've played games with scores of 82-80 at IUPUI and 79-74 at Oakland. I think the Phoenix put on a show at home in their final regular season game.

The Citadel will have it's hands full as they try to prevent a winless conference season. They travel to Furman to take on a Paladins team hoping to get in the NCAA Tourney. These two played back on 1/25 with Furman winning 78-54 on the road. The Citadel's defense away from home has been pretty putrid allowing 96, 91, 88, 76, 92 and 88 over their last six contests. They are 350th in two point defense and 224th in three point D. Furman is coming off an impressive 81-67 win at UNC Greensboro. Maybe there's a bit of a slow start, but they should win rather easily. At home they put up 101 on Samford back on 1/22 and can score in bunches. The thing is that they are 317th against the two so I think the Citadel could score a little too. Furman's getting to 90 and we're getting the over. 

They can't set Hampton totals high enough especially at home. They've continued to cash for me as every game in conference for the most part has been really high scoring. Jermaine Marrow is the highest scoring D1 athlete in Virginia and he forms a great duo with Ben Stanley inside. This team doesn't play any defense checking in 315th in 2 pt D and 326th in 3 pt D. These two played at USC Upstate back on 1/8 and it was an 83-73 Hampton loss in 82 possessions. The Spartans play at an average pace and also are rather porous on defense especially since they rank 325th against the 2. They are coming off a 90-82 loss at home to Winthrop. This team can score a little bit, but also their defense is bad. I'm going to continue to ride the trends and take the over.

Elon is playing some better basketball as of late having won five of their last seven including a win at Charleston and a home victory over Northeastern. The Phoenix still don't have a great offense, but they've put up 70 or more in five straight and six of their last seven. The squad is 320th in three point defense and lost to the Tribe way back in game one of the CAA season 74-73 at home in a 64 possession game. Elon won't let this game get too fast, but that doesn't mean William and Mary won't score. The Tribe are 20-10 and have won four in a row. Outside of the 61-51 road win at Towson, this team's offense is clicking right now. They are 23rd in two point FG%, 83rd in 3pt FG% and 72nd in FT%. The defense can be a bit leaky. I think this one is an over and we rarely get totals this "low" in Williamsburg.

Iowa is a completely different team at home and haven't lost there since falling to DePaul back in November. At home in conference this team has scored 67, 90, 85, 68, 72, 96 and 85. They play with a quicker than average pace and have many weapons on offense to worry about. These two teams played a tight game at the Palestra back in early January with the Nittany Lions winning 89-86. Penn State plays faster than the Hawkeyes with a top 45 tempo. On the road in Big 10 play they've struggled defensively. I just see a lot of points in this one as Iowa just plays that much better at home.

This game has a lower total, but I think we can get over it. Let's start with meeting one that was a 70-69 game with 66 possessions and both teams being efficient from two point land. UIC has won five of their last seven and has the 32nd quickest possessions on defense which means teams find shots quickly. The Flames also turn it over around 23% of their possessions. On the other side, Detroit has lost six of their last seven and are ranked 18th in shortest possessions for opponents on offense. This team is the 2nd best in the country at free throw shooting, but they can't score from two point range. The good thing for our total is that the Titans defense is hideous. I think this is a tighter game and we sneak over this total. 

Hampton has won two straight and three of their last five entering this one. The Pirates are a fantastic team at home scoring 92, 83, 95, 83, 87, 80 and 87 in conference. They are speeding everyone up right now with Ben Stanley and Jermaine Marrow. The defense is absolutely hideous as well ranking 318th defending the 2 and 317th in defending the 3. Radford is one of the slowest teams in the country, but the offense has scored 70 or more in seven straight. They had a 72 possession road game with Winthrop too. The Pirates sped them up to 69 possessions in meeting one. I think this one is an over AND I think Hampton is a very live home dog. Don't parlay them, but I like both the side and the total. 

Arkansas plays with a quicker than average pace especially at home where they like to play to the crowd. Their offense is pretty good from two point land, but the number one thing they do is defend the three pointer. They are the best in the country at it. The Razorbacks managed to put up 78 on Missou at home last time out and the Tigers don't want to play that quick. At home in SEC play, Arkansas has scored 69, 75, 66, 77, 76, 77 and 78. Tennessee is one of the slowest teams in the country and are mediocre offensively. Still, away from home, they've given up 73 to Auburn, 86 to Mississippi State, 74 to Kansas and 80 to Georgia. They won't want to run, but Arkansas is going to want payback after losing 82-61 in Rocky Top. The Razorbacks shot hideously in that one. They won't do that at home. I think this one is an over. 

Furman and Greensboro play once again on Wednesday with the Spartans home this time. Back on January 11th, they won a road game 86-73 in a 71 possession contest against the Paladins. This one saw both teams shoot 60% or better from two point land and UNCG made 81% of their FT. By the numbers, UNCG plays a below average pace, but if you look, they've had 70+ possession games in five of their last six. They are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country which could get frustrating down the stretch in a close game. Furman is another team that plays at a less than average pace, but they are pretty efficient on offense. On the road, this team has had someone get to 70 points or more in four straight. You can beat the Paladins inside as they are 318th in two point defense. I think the possession number could be in the high 60s and we'll see some efficient offense from both teams. 

Auburn overs especially at home have treated me well. The Tigers are shooting 53.2% from two point land and play at a pretty good pace. Not only that, but from time to time they are good for an extra period with four overtimes already. Auburn has scored 73, 95, 91, 75, 80, 80, 82 and 83 at home in SEC play. These two played an 83-82 2OT game back in January with the score at the end of regulation being 66 all so they still needed to do some work to get over the total then. Ole Miss plays with a modest pace, but they are coming off a 103-78 loss at home to Alabama. The team has struggled to score on the road which is why I'm guessing this is a lower total. Still, there's some talent there led by Breein Tyree and Khadim Sy among others. I think this one should go over the total on Tuesday. 

This bet didn't hit last time out because of a lackluster half by the Zags. I don't think we see that here as we get a BYU team that also wants to run and will do so at home. The Cougars are the 13th best two point shooting team and the best three point shooting squad. In meeting one in Spokane it was a 92-69 win for the Zags in a 74 possession game. The halftime score was 38-31 between the two squads which wouldn't be enough here, but I think we get more on the road. At home in WCC play, BYU has put up 63, 96, 93, 107, 81, 90 and 85. Gonzaga on the road in WCC play has scored 85, 94, 87, 87, 83, 90 and 89. These two should have some free-flowing offense with plenty of possessions. Give me the over in this one. 

North Dakota State has won seven straight entering this one against their rival North Dakota. The Bison play with a slow pace, but they don't turn it over and are pretty efficient on offense. This team beat UND 83-74 at home back on 1/19 in a 66 possession game. Both teams shot the ball really well in that one and missed just five total free throws which helped contribute to the total. The Bison's road games in this conference have had scores of 77-74, 86-78, 71-60, 70-49, 78-73, 79-73 and 66-55. As you can see, it's a mixed bag as to whether or not the defense shows up. The Fighting Hawks are allowing opponents to have the 3rd shortest possession time on offense. They are 333rd in three point defense and 222nd in two point defense. The offense hasn't been that terrible, but their defense has allowed 94, 82, 68, 77, 71, 66 and 69 at home. I just think this conference is very conducive to overs so let's take it here. 

Pace will not be an issue on Saturday afternoon as Winthrop hosts Hampton. These two played over a month ago in Virginia with the Pirates losing 116-95 in an 84 possession game. Hampton's road performances have not been great offensively and certainly not defensively. This team has gone over or flirted with the over in most of their games as the possession numbers continue to fly up. Winthrop has scored 85 or more eight times already at home. Their defense isn't that great either and the only thing that worries me about this is the early start time. To me, we'll see 80+ possessions once again and lots of points in an early over.

** Also play Over 76.5 1st half **

Auburn is back home after two rough efforts at Missouri and Georgia. The Tigers are a completely different team at home where they've scored 83, 82, 80, 80, 75, 91 and 95 points in SEC play. They are really efficient checking in 31st in two point baskets. Auburn can play good defense, but they've struggled without Okoro in the lineup. Tennessee's offense is not very good, but their defense is pretty stellar. They are 9th in 2 pt defense and 3rd in block percentage. Ideally they don't want to run, but they played a 72 possession game at Alabama. The Vols gave up 80 at Georgia, 86 at Mississippi State and 74 at Kansas. The worry here is that they ugly the game up and it's played in the 60s. Still, it feels like Auburn is due a breakout effort and it could come on Saturday.

BYU has a MASSIVE game coming up next with #2 Gonzaga coming to town on Saturday, but before then it's a contest with Santa Clara. The Cougars are the best three point shooting team in the land and are 11th in two point offense. At home in conference they've scored 63, 96, 93, 107, 81 and 90 so you know points will come. Their defense has been very hot and cold, but I feel like the letdown will come on this side of the ball. These two haven't played yet this season, but last year in their only meeting they played a higher scoring contest in the Marriott Center. Santa Clara has the 46th quickest tempo and the 11th shortest offensive possessions. They have lost three straight and are 5-7 in conference. The Broncos offense needs to show up, but in their other games against the quicker WCC teams they lost 104-54 at Gonzaga and 91-77 at Pepperdine in 73 and 77 possession games. I think this one is an over on Thursday. 

Oral Roberts travels to Denver on Thursday night. These two played at ORU back at the start of the month with the Golden Eagles holding serve 86-77 at home in that one. It was a 74 possession game which should be expected considering both of these teams play with a solid tempo. Also, neither of them are very good on defense with Oral Roberts checking in 315th in two point defense and 274th in three point defense. On the road in Summit play, ORU has had games with scores of 96-79, 74-67, 87-70, 92-68, 91-80, 74-68 & 83-76. Denver has won just one conference game and it's because of a bad defense that is 346th against the 2pt basket. At home, they've allowed 66, 82, 80, 93 and 70 in conference play. This team wants to get up and down a little bit more and has some talent with Jace Townshend and Ade Murkey. I think we see at least 75 possessions in this game and lots of points. 

This total is a bit surprising with a Blue Hens team that is really efficient on offense. They are 17th in two point offense and 55th in three point offense. Delaware has scored less than 70 just four times in conference play and not since putting up only 68 at home against William and Mary. These two teams played in Boston back on 1/25 and it was a 76-74 game. That was with 66 possessions and UD hitting 80% of their two point shots. Both teams were smoking hot from inside the arc with Huskies checking in at 62.5%. Northeastern is 13-13, but they also have an efficient offense and an exploitable defense. NU is 26th in two point FG% and 20th in three point FG%. This team's given up 75, 74, 59, 76, 76, 72 and 45 in conference play. This one should be tight and I think plenty of points will be scored. 

** Also take Delaware +1 **

The shine has come off Hampton overs as of late, but they return home to host a Gardner-Webb team that they will face twice in a four day span. The Pirates offense is a little cold right now, but the defense continues to be awful. They've given up 70 points or more in every contest during conference play. Jermaine Marrow continues to be huge for his team and he'll play a lot better at home. In conference play the Pirates have had home scores of 92-85, 83-80, 116-95, 83-74, 87-81 and 80-70. The Runnin Bulldogs don't really do that with a tempo in the 270s. They have a mediocre offense although during this current win streak they've put up 74, 86 and 88 points. On the road they've shown some competency and should be feeling good after a win over Winthrop. I think these two teams should light up the scoreboard on Thursday. 

Creighton overs have been very good to me. One of those came way back on New Year's Day when Creighton beat Marquette 92-75 at home. The Jays shot almost 56% from two point land and made nine threes. Marquette got 18 points from Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey and Markus Howard in the loss. Creighton is shooting over 38% from long range in conference play. They've not been as sharp on the road offensively, but still has scored 87 at Seton Hall, 76 at Nova and 83 at DePaul. Marquette is 17-7, 7-5 in the Big East, but they've won three of their last four. This team has played some higher scoring games at home with wins of 76-72 over DePaul, 82-68 over St. John's and 85-65 over Xavier. I think this one should see plenty of points in both directions. 

** Small lean to the 1H over as well **

Buffalo is one of the quickest teams in the country especially at home where they push the pace. The Bulls lost at Ball State 88-68 already this season. That's impressive because Ball State rarely scores that much and usually won't allow that many possessions to occur. UB did play a lower scoring game against CMU at home on Friday February 7th, but that was a huge shock. In other home contests, they lost 78-77 to Bowling Green, and beat slower paced WMU 90-79. They'll probably get this thing to 70+ possessions which gives us a chance with this lower total. On the road Ball State has played some quicker games. They had a 78 possession affair at CMU losing 71-66. Ball State has played five 70+ possession games in the MAC. I think they can make things interesting and this one could go over the total.  

** SMALL lean also to Ball State +4.5 **

Overs in Denver games continue to be a fantastic play especially on the road. The Pios are allowing teams to shoot over 55% from two point land which is 341st in the nation. They've given up 90, 86, 82, 78, 86 and 80 away from home in conference play. Denver actually has a semi-decent offense led by Ade Murkey as well. They've scored 70 or more nine times in Summit League play. These two played in Denver back on January 18th with the Pios winning 91-76. The Mavericks have lost four straight and are another awful defense. They are 315th against the three pointer and 224th against the two. Omaha's home games in conference have had scores of 86-78, 81-80, 75-71, 87-82, 74-67 and 81-78. They play a little bit slower than average. Give me the over though as this conference features a ton of scoring. 

Creighton is 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency as they host a DePaul team they beat 83-68 on the road just under a month ago. The Jays are 52nd in 2 pt%, 22nd in 3 pt% and 63rd in FT%. At home they've scored 94, 77, 78, 59 and 92 in conference. There's so many weapons on this team, but their defense needs a little bit of work. The Jays have allowed 82 points to their last two opponents St. John's and Seton Hall. This squad plays at an exactly average tempo. DePaul was 12-1, but now is 13-11 and it's because their offense has dried up a bit. Plus, their defense is rather porous at times. They've played some lower scoring games, but when the tempo gets pushed, they play along. Both Creighton and DePaul shot over 50% in their first meeting with DePaul making just three of 16 three point attempts. The two teams did make 40 FTs combined which is probably a factor, but I really want to keep betting overs in Creighton games.

Furman has won six straight and is playing Chattanooga who they beat 73-66 on the road back on January 8th. The Paladins are the third best team from the two point area shooting almost 58%. They've also struggled terribly defending two point baskets checking in 315th in the land. Furman has scored 75 or more in five of their last six with four of the opponents over that span scoring 70 or more themselves. Chattanooga is 16-10 and they are pretty bad against the two as well allowing opponents to shoot 52.5% from that area. The Mocs offense has scored 80 or more in two straight and four of their last seven. The team shoots the three pretty well and has gotten into some high scoring games away from home. Give me the over here as I think Furman is in really good form.

Delaware is the hottest team in the CAA as they've reeled off seven straight victories since losing to these Tribe 77-68 at home back on January 16th. They are really efficient on offense checking in 14th in 2 pt offense, 58th in 3 pt offense and 42nd in FT percentage. They've poured in 80 or more in four straight games, but it's the defense that has been a problem giving up over 70 in all of their victories over this span. William and Mary's defense is rather leaky and their offense is very capable of exploding. They put up 77 against Drexel at home after a recent skid of scoring 65 or less. Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet are a very capable duo inside that the Blue Hens could struggle with. I think this one should go over the total as I just don't think Vegas is respecting these two.

** Small Lean UNC Wilmington +14 as well **

This is a rematch of a wild triple overtime game back on January 11th when Winthrop won 99-95 at home. The game ended at 69-69 before the overtimes began so it was around this current number before the chaos. Both teams shot over 50% from two point land and made a combined 44 free throws. Winthrop plays at a really quick pace with a solid offense and a defense that also allows opponents to shoot over 50% from two point land. The Eagles are coming off their first conference loss of the season falling 81-77 to Radford. On the road, this team has scored 70 or more in every in-conference game except one at Radford. Gardner-Webb plays at a slower pace, but their offense is smoking hot right now scoring 86 vs. High Point, 88 at USC Upstate and 81 at home against Longwood. They are shooting 36.5% from long range. I think this number is just a bit too low and there should be plenty of points scored. 

Samford is on a 10 game losing streak and one can point to their defense as a reason why. They allowed 90 points or more five times during this stretch including giving up 101 to Furman in a 101-78 loss to the Paladins. The one concern is that Furman made 17 three's in the first meeting which I can't expect again, but they should get to at least 80 in this one. This team is 336th in two point defense and 308th in three point defense. They play at a quicker pace and are usually good for 70+ possessions in a game. Furman is not as quick, but they are extremely efficient on offense. They are #2 in two point field goal percentage checking in at 57.9% as a team. They also struggle against the two themselves on defense checking in at 320th. The Paladins have scored 70 or more nine times in conference including each of their last five. There's not really any sort of look-ahead here so I think we get a focused effort from the better team. 

This line could be a trap, but I think I'm going to bite and play it. These two teams played back in early January with the Bucs winning 89-75 in a game that saw almost 80 points in the first half. Upstate shot 50% from long range and had 19 turnovers while CSU got 25 from Phlandrous Fleming while shooting over 60% from two. The Bucs are 12-12, 6-6 in conference and have struggled defensively. They are 331st in two point defense and have allowed 70 or more in three straight road games. The offense is very hot or cold so that's a concern, but they are coming off an 85 point effort vs. Hampton. The Spartans are 10-15 and are 318th against two point field goals defensively. They've given up 70 or more in four straight, but the offense has played better at home. Basically it's two mediocre offenses against two bad defenses. I'll take a chance that the offenses show up and go with the over. 

Butler and Marquette played a wild game just a few weeks ago as the Bulldogs held serve at home 89-85 in overtime. It was a game that was 39-35 at halftime and that's with both teams shooting the ball just okay. Markus Howard had 26 on 8-of-27 shooting while Kamar Baldwin was 10-of-25 with 31 points. Marquette wants to push the pace and has scored 76, 82, 85, 80 and 71 at home during conference play. Their defense has been poor at times which will help here. Butler's team on the road has given up 76 at Villanova and 79 at DePaul. Their offense is ridiculously efficient though so that will help. It should be a close back and forth affair so give me the game over here. 

Oakland is 8-16 on the season and has already lost at home to Wright State 96-69. The Grizzlies are playing one of the slowest tempos in the country, but they've still been dragged into higher scoring games on the road. They lost 73-70 at Northern Kentucky after a 77-64 win at Detroit. The question will be if they can produce enough offense to help the total. Wright State's offense is smoking hot scoring 98, 89, 65 and 95 in their last four games. They've scored 75 or more in every single home game this season as they play with a quicker pace and a better offense. The defense can be hot and cold, but I don't need them to be completely lock down if WSU wants to put up 90. Give me the over here as I just think the Raiders should be able to do whatever they want. 

Hampton is smoking hot when it comes to the overs. Ever since the flip of the calendar and the return of Jermaine Marrow, they've been playing high scoring games. The key is also that the Pirates are doing it against slower paced teams as well. They managed to get into high scoring affairs with Radford and High Point. These two teams played back on January 4th and Hampton won 92-85 in a 74 possession game. They are getting to the free throw line often and play pretty much no defense. Hampton is 326th against the three and 299th against the two. On the road they've given up 88, 83, 86 and 83 in conference. The Bucs play at a really slow pace, but they've also struggled on defense as they sit 333rd against two pointers. Charleston Southern doesn't necessarily want to play a quicker game, but over this current three game losing streak they gave up 71 to Longwood, 77 to Radford and 77 to Winthrop. I see plenty of points in this one.

I love playing Denver overs and this is another case where we will do so. The Pios have lost four straight and 14 of their last 15 as the defense continues to struggle. They are allowing opponents to shoot almost 56% from two point land and have allowed 75 or more in nine straight games. They play at the 49th quickest pace so there should be plenty of possessions in this one. Vegas thinks Denver is going to win at home and I just don't think they can do so in a lower scoring game. The Dons are playing at a slower pace, but have an equally awful defense from up close and long range. On the road this team allowed 75 to Omaha, 83 to South Dakota, 69 to Western Illinois and 83 to North Dakota. This figures to be a close game and I think it'll fly over the total.

The Eagles are 16-7 this season and have won 12 straight games as they host Campbell. One of those wins came over the Camels at their place 87-72 back on January 4th. Winthrop shot 62% from two and 50% from three in that one while Campbell, a team who wants to play slower, shot almost 60% from two point range. At home Winthrop has put up 104, 72, 79, 99 and 91 in conference. They are shooting over 50% from two point range and have had a terrible time with fouling too much. The Camels are 11-11 on the year and are also really good at shooting from two point range. They ideally want a slower pace, but their last few away scores have been 91-74, 83-74 and 85-79 in games that saw 66 possessions or more. I think this one should go over the total with Winthrop setting up the pace. 

Mercer is 12-11 on the year, but they've won six straight games. These two played in Macon, Georgia back on December 20th with the home team losing 64-62. The Bears began the year playing really fast, but they've cooled the tempo off since then. During this win streak they've scored 70 or more in six of their last seven. The defense has improved as well although some of that was because of the opponents they were playing. Furman's offense is very efficient shooting 57.3% from two point land which is good for 43rd in the nation. Furman has scored 74, 101, 83, 73 and 65 at home in conference. They are not the most efficient on defense allowing teams to shoot just over 55% from two point land themselves. I feel like this one should see plenty of points on Wednesday. 

The Razorbacks are the 58th quickest team tempo-wise, but they are not the best when it comes to crashing the boards. The Hogs shoot over 53% from two point land and are the number one three point defense in college basketball. The offense has scored 70 or more in four straight, but the defense has also allowed that much in three contests over that span. Auburn crashes the boards hard and plays at a slightly above average tempo. They are shooting almost 54% from two point land, but are pretty bad from three. One has to wonder how much the UK game took out of them as they won 75-66 in a big game at home. This team has had it's issues on the road losing two of their last three with the win coming by one in 2OT at Ole Miss. The Tigers also have a 1 point win at South Alabama and a 12 point victory at Mississippi State. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday. 

I'm not going to step in front of the Hampton over train now as they had the week off to prepare for Presbyterian. Hampton's last seven scores are 92-85, 83-73, 83-80, 116-95, 88-86, 83-74 and 83-79. Jermaine Marrow's return has been big for the offense as he has possession of the ball in 35.4% of their possessions and has taken 37.4% of their shots. This team plays very little defense and it doesn't matter if you are slow or not, you will go. Last time out, they managed to push Radford a bit in a 69 possession game and the Highlanders are one of the slowest teams in terms of pace in the country. Presbyterian is 8-14 and relatively underwhelming offensively. They are rather hideous on defense though so I think Hampton could do a lot of the heavy lifting. The Blue Hose are coming off a 77-74 home loss to USC Upstate. This is one of those instabets right now until Vegas adjusts.

William and Mary is 16-7, 8-2 in the CAA and is looking for a season sweep of Hofstra. The Tribe crushed them at their place 88-61 back on January 2nd in a game that saw Nathan Knight pick up another double double. His size along with Andy Van Vliet was too much for the home team. Since then they've gone 6-2 with an offense that is really efficient. Last game they beat Northeastern 59-58 after Knight went the length of the court to get the win. Hofstra is also 16-7 and they've gone 5-2 since the loss to WM. They have an efficient offense and are the 12th best FT shooting squad. This team has seen some high scoring games on the road where they don't seemingly mind playing with some pace. I'll take the over here.

Fort Wayne tries to snap a four game losing streak at home as they host North Dakota. These two teams played back on January 5th with the home team winning 83-69. The Dons have one of the worst defenses in the country allowing opponents to shoot almost 54% from two and 37.3% from three. At home they've given up 92, 70 and 59 in three conference games. North Dakota's opponents take just 15.7 seconds to get their possessions done which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and also allow teams to shoot well from long range. If it's a close game, the Fighting Hawks are 6th in the country in FT%. On the road they've allowed 83, 87, 88 and 71 in conference. Now this offense has scored 70 or more in three straight and six of their last eight. I think this one is an over. 

I see that once again the total has moved down here and this time I'm not scared of it. If you look at the last matchup, you saw the Tribe won 66-64 in Boston, but that was in Mathews Arena which is a giant hockey stadium with odd sight-lines. The other thing about that contest was that there were only just seven free throws attempted so we know that number will be higher in Virginia. William and Mary out-rebounded the Huskies 34-25 in that one and continue to dominate with their twin towers. Both of these teams are ridiculously efficient on offense. Northeastern is 4th best in FT shooting and three point shooting and 33rd best from two point land. On defense they are 323rd against two point shots which will be an issue against the Tribe. WM is 17th best from 2 pt land and 39th from three point land. Someone has reached 70 points in all but two games in Williamsburg. Give me the over here. 

San Jose State is 7-14, 3-6 in the Mountain West as they travel to Boise State. The Spartans average over 72 possessions per game which is 26th fastest in the country. Opponents have the 12th shortest offensive possessions against them as they are 285th in effective FG% defense. San Jose State has allowed 86, 98, 79 and 89 in their last four road games. Yes, their offense is pretty awful, but at least the pace is conducive to plenty of shots. They are coming of a 90-81 win at home against Air Force so there are some good feelings here. Boise State has a top 100 tempo as well and an offense that is shooting nearly 53% from two point land. The Broncos at home have scored 88, 73, 65, 103 and 100 in their last five games there. They also have a little bit of an issue on defense allowing teams to shoot nearly 54% from two point land. They gave up 83 to Utah State, San Diego State and Nevada already in conference play and 85 to Air Force as well. I see plenty of points in this game. 

Furman is 10-2 since a two game losing streak in early December and they host VMI on Wednesday. These two played in Lexington on New Year's Day and the road team won 89-73 over the Keydets. These Paladins are the 4th best two point shooting team in the country hitting 56.8% of their shots inside the arc. In conference play this team has put up 65 on ETSU with their slower pace, 73 on UNC Greensboro, 83 on Western Carolina and 101 on Samford. Furman is 332nd in two point defense themselves so you can score on them. VMI shot almost 55% from two in their loss earlier in the year. The Keydets are 1-9 since starting the year 5-7. Their offense has been pretty weak, but their defense hasn't been good either. They gave up 91 at USC Upstate and 73 at Mercer. This team wants to shoot a ton of threes. I don't know if we'll see the 162 points in Lexington, but I think it'll go over in this one. 

This is the classic case of a potent offense vs. a potent defense. The Hoyas have lost five of their last seven since a 10-3 start to the year. They have scored 80 points or more at home in every game except a random 65-61 loss to UNC Greensboro in late November. The Hoyas go as Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven go as they are the best two players. There's some other talent there with Jamorko Pickett, Jagan Mosely and Terrell Allen. Butler is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country and has the 22nd best adjusted efficiency defense. They've struggled in their last two road games on that side of the ball giving up 76 to Nova and 79 to DePaul. Still, this offense is so good too that I think even if it got to be a higher scoring game, that they should be able to score plenty. Georgetown home overs are almost instabet at this point. 

The Mavericks are 11-10 on the season and they host Purdue Fort Wayne. Omaha's last three games were 87-82 (OT), 91-76 and 91-81. Their defense is rather porous especially against the three where they allow teams to shoot over 37%. At home, this team has scored 87, 74, 81, 87 and 92 since mid-December. They don't play with the same pace that they have in the past, but I think they'll find some success against the Dons. Purdue Fort Wayne is 9-12 and on a three game losing streak. They've got an awful defense and have allowed 83, 69, 83 and 89 in their last four road games. The offense isn't as potent as it has been in the past, but there are still some solid options. I think this one is an over.

We hit our 5% play with the over in Denver's last game and it's a great team to do it against. The Pios average about 71 possessions per game and are one of the worst defenses in the country. They currently rank 341st in 2 pt defense. Denver's offense has mediocre numbers, but I don't need them to do too much of the heavy lifting here. This squad has given up 70 or more in six straight and 11 of their last 12 overall. They played North Dakota State at home in a 66-55 game which is why I think we're getting a little bit of a lower number here. The Bison play one of the slowest tempos in the country, but their offense is really effective and they rarely turn it over. NDSU at home has scored 80 or more twice already in conference play and is coming off a tough 78-73 loss to rival South Dakota State so I imagine them trying to start fast. Give me the over here. I think we can get 80 from the home team. 

Greensboro has gotten over the early conference woes and has won three straight entering this one. They play at a really slow pace, but this team has had a problem at times setting their pace on the road. They beat The Citadel 79-69, Furman 86-73 and lost at Wofford 98-92 in double overtime. Isaiah Miller and James Dickey lead the way and Miller takes just over 40% of their shots. Next up is a road game against Samford who wants to fly with the 44th fastest pace and the 29th shortest offensive possessions. The team has lost five straight and has given up 88 or more in four straight. Bulldogs opponents are shooting 54.8% from two and 36.6% from long range. Their last home game was a 90-75 loss to Mercer. I just think we should see plenty of points in this one. 

It's a quick turn around for Mercer and VMI as they played just 10 days ago with the Bears winning 73-62 at home. Since then Mercer has beaten Samford on the road 90-75 and Western Carolina 85-79 at home. This is a team that is really good at shooting the three and has had issues with defending it as well. On the road, they've also lost 79-71 at WCU and 72-63 at Greensboro. The Keydets have lost eight of their last nine with the lone win coming at home 88-79 over The Citadel. At home, this team has scored 70 or more in all but one contest. They also crank out a lot of threes and play rather porous defense. The Keydets allowed 97 to Western Carolina in Lexington and 89 to Furman there. I see a lot of points in this one. I think the over is in play.

To me, there's a ton of value with the over here in this matchup. It's meeting number two between Denver and North Dakota as UND won 82-71 in Denver earlier this month. They shot 65.5% from two point land and out-rebounded the Pios 41-32. Denver is coming off a 91-76 win over Nebraska Omaha at home. Before that they had lost 10 in a row allowing 80 or more six times. They play with a quicker pace and are one of the worst defenses in the country allowing teams to shoot almost 57% from the two point land.

The Fighting Hawks meanwhile play at a slightly faster than average pace, but teams are averaging just 15.8 seconds a possession which is the 5th fastest in the country. They don't force turnovers and are allowing teams to shoot over 36% from long range. North Dakota has had just five true home games with three of those being sub division one. They beat Purdue Fort Wayne 83-69 and lost 66-62 to Nebraska Omaha.

Denver has gone over in 13 of their 19 lined games while North Dakota has gone over in 11 of 17. These two have combined to go over in 13 of their 16 contests when the total is in the 140s.  I just think this one goes over the total as both teams should be able to put up some points. 

** 5% play from 143 - 145.....4% from 145.5 - 146.....No play if it goes over 147 ** 

The return of Jermaine Marrow to the lineup has done big things for Hampton as they host Campbell on Thursday. Marrow is 6th in the country in % of possessions used and 7th in percentage of shots taken. The guard has been fantastic since returning and so has the offense. The Pirates have scored 88, 95, 83, 73 and 92 over their last five games. Now, on the opposite side is that they are horrendous on defense. They are ranked 309th in two point defense and 310th in three point defense. Over that same five game span, the squad gave up 86, 116, 80, 83 and 85 points. Campbell is 11-8 and plays at a lot slower pace, but their offense is rather efficient with a 53.3% from two point land. They've had trouble at times setting their pace on the road and are coming off an 85-79 loss at Presbyterian in a 74 possession game. I'm going to keep riding the overs in Hampton games for now. 

I like the over in this one as I think CSUN's lack of defense and an uber efficient UCSB team will bring us some points. The Matadors away from home really take that name to heart. They are allowing teams to shoot 53.8% from two and 38.8% from three point land. They are getting crushed on the boards and even deliberate opponents are having quick offensive possessions. This team's offense has perked up a bit as they scored 80 in a road win at UC Riverside and have some pieces in Diane and Gomez. UCSB is really methodical on offense, but they are really efficient too. This team plays some lower possession contests, but at home they've cracked the 80 point mark five times. I really like their offense and despite the fact that their defense has been very good, they could give up some points here. I can see another 80+ point effort from the home team leading to an over.

Auburn has lost two straight as South Carolina comes to town on Wednesday. The Tigers play at a pretty good pace and are shooting almost 55% from two point land. Their defense has been very leaky during this recent stretch although it's strong at home. The Tigers have allowed 83 to Alabama and 79 to Vandy the past few weeks. Their offense at home has scored 80 or more seven times already with a 79 sprinkled in there too. South Carolina plays with a really fast pace and has the 27th shortest offensive possessions. The Gamecocks aren't great offensively, but that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of possessions. They are coming of an 81-67 win at Texas A&M and an 81-78 win over Kentucky at home. There are some ugly offensive numbers in the mix as well which is why I'm going full game as opposed to first half here. I just think Auburn is going to try and flex their muscles and put on a show.

Toledo is coming off an impressive win at Akron on Saturday night 99-89 in a game that finally saw them hit their offensive potential. The Rockets traditionally are really good on offense and are shooting almost 40% as a team from long range. Toledo has struggled at times with defense on the road giving up 84 to Kent State, 78 to Bradley and 72 to UMKC. The Bobcats are coming off a 60-58 win at Eastern Michigan. Ohio's offense is decently efficient and has played four 70+ possession games in their last five. Ironically the one game with less then 70 over that span, the score was 83-74 at home against Bowling Green. I see a lot of points scored in this one.

Valpo is 9-9 on the season with a 2-3 record in MVC play. The Crusaders have an intriguing offense that is playing with a quicker pace then they have in the past. They have the 50th quickest offensive pace and are allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% from two point land. Teams are getting whatever they want on Valpo this season. Last time out they gave up 88 points to Northern Iowa in an 88-78 loss. There are rumblings that Ryan Fazekas could finally play in this one too. He made the road trip last time out which was new. Indiana State prefers a slower pace, but has had somewhat of a hard time installing it on the road. The Sycamores shoot 39.2% from long range as a unit and have allowed 80 at Drake, 77 at Wright State and 91 at Louisville. I think this one gets played with some pace and it goes over the total.

Houston Baptist plays the fastest pace in the country and is in the top 5 in quickest offensive possessions and quickest possessions by the defense. This team has given up 100 points to five straight opponents and nine overall. The Huskies are allowing teams to shoot 61.3% from two point land and almost 40% from long range. They actually are a decent three point shooting squad themselves checking in at almost 38% as a team. It's almost an insta-bet on the over in their games because they just can't set the total high enough. Sam Houston State has a top 55 pace themselves and are 15th in the country in shooting long range. They've played games with scores of 90-81 at San Francisco, 90-86 at UTRGV and 94-75 at McNeese State. SHSU won't mind the pace so I can see them getting to 100 points themselves in this contest. Continue to take the over in HBU games.

Denver has lost 10 straight games entering this one and you can see why with the true lack of defense they have. The Pios have allowed 86, 80, 80 and 82 in their last four games with two of those coming at home. They play at a quicker then average pace and at home seem to have a little more success on offense. Denver allows teams to shoot 58% from two point land on the year. Omaha plays at a slightly faster than average pace and has had their struggles with defense on the road. The Mavericks are coming off giving up 91 at South Dakota, but that came after a 66-62 road win at North Dakota. Other teams to show some success against them away from home were EWU who put up 97 and Dayton who scored 93. To me, this one should see some points and go over the lower than expected total.

Coppin State plays with the 4th fastest pace in college basketball and have the 10th shortest possession length on offense. Now, they don't shoot the greatest from long range or the free throw line, but they do it quickly. Only four of their games had 70 possessions or less. If you look at the Eagles defense on the road, they've given up 85 to Bethune Cookman, 79 to Mount St. Mary's, 91 to Miami and 86 to UMBC. There has been just three contests away from home where they've allowed less than 70.

The Rattlers are 3-11 and are the 85th fastest team in the country. They are 36th in opponent's average possession length so you figure Coppin St will get plenty of shots up. This team has won three of their last five including a 70-68 victory at Iowa State. In their first true home game of the season, they won 77-68 over Morgan State. Neither offense is all that effective, but I think there will be plenty of possessions so the over is in play.

Davidson comes home after losing three straight away from home. The Wildcats are one of the most disappointing teams in the country with Kellen Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson being way too good to be playing this poorly. They aren't the deepest team and don't play with the quickest tempo, but St. Joe's defense is more then accommodating. Davidson has played just three true home games this year scoring 87, 91 and 88 in those contests. The team shoots over 52% from two point land but is also allowing opponents to do so as well. St. Joe is 3-12 and has lost three straight themselves. On the road they've allowed 82, 87, 85, 108 and 84 points. Teams are shooting nearly 38% from long range against the Hawks who have one of the least efficient defenses in the country. SJU has gone over in 18 of their last 31 road games including four of five this season. Give me the over here. 

The Tribe have a chance to go 3-0 in the CAA with three road wins as they take on Northeastern on Saturday. The team beat Elon 74-73 in 2019 and then won at Hofstra 88-61 in a 71 possession game. They've got six road wins already this season and have one of the more efficient offenses in the country. They are shooting 55.5% from two point land and almost 38% from long range and feature the twin towers of Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet. Northeastern is 9-6 with three wins in conference over the dregs of the CAA. They are one of the slower teams in the country, but are also highly efficient with the 6th best success from long range and the 4th best from the free throw line. It's hard to get a gauge on the Huskies who have played both high and low scoring games at home. I just feel like the team from Williamsburg lets down here and we go over the total. 

The Citadel wants to run and gun and it shows with the 18th fastest pace in the country. They are allowing opponents to shoot 61% from two point land which is one of the highest in the country. At home, they've allowed 87, 91 and 96 to their division one opponents. The Bulldogs offense works better there though as well. Western Carolina has the 43rd fastest pace in the country and their opponents have possessions of just 16.2 seconds which is 24th fastest. On the road, they've played games with scores of 91-72, 79-74, 96-94, 70-64, 74-61 and 89-76. The common thread is that they succeed more when the opposition wants to run. Xavier and Stetson didn't want to and those were the two lowest scores. The Catamounts didn't mind running with the Bulldogs last year with scores of 103-82 at home and 94-82 on the road. Give me the over here. 

It's a battle in Philly as Drexel hosts La Salle. The Explorers are 4-3 and have lost all three of their previous games against the rest of the schools in the area falling 75-59 at Penn, 70-65 at home to Temple and 83-72 at Villanova. A couple of things to point out here as the team shoots 45.4% from two point range and 65.2% from the free throw line. The average possession length for opponents on offense against them is 15.9 secs which is the 19th shortest in the country. Drexel is 5-4 with all five wins coming at home. Granted, the only solid victory of the group was Princeton, but this team's offense is pretty good. They've scored over 80 four times already this season and are 52nd in effective FG%. I think this one screams over and a play on the home team as well. Last year Drexel won 89-84 in this game and also beat them 72-70 in 2017. 

Creighton is back home to start a stretch of four home games as they host Oral Roberts. This team is coming off a 1-1 trip to Vegas in which they beat Texas Tech and lost to San Diego State by 31. The Blue Jays offense is one of the most efficient in the country and is shooting 53.2% from two point land and 38.2% from long range. Creighton's defense is pretty bad too allowing teams to shoot 53% from up close. They've allowed 70 or more to five opponents this season. Marcus Zegarowski and Ty-Shon Alexander are two of the better players on the team. Oral Roberts has an adjusted tempo of 75 possessions which is 21st in the country. Teams are taking just 15 secs to get a shot up on ORU. In games against steps up in competition, the Golden Eagles lost 80-75 at Oklahoma State and 87-74 at Iowa. ORU has gone over in 33 of their last 52 as an underdog and 21 of their last 36 road games. I think this one is an over too. 

Portland State and Grambling take the court in Santa Barbara on Tuesday. The Vikings are 2-3 on the year, and are the 39th quickest team in the country. This team has scored 70 or more in every game and has allowed 75 or more to every division one squad. They play very little defense giving up 76 to San Jose State and 82 to Portland. Grambling State is 3-2 with wins over 2 lower level schools and one against SE Louisiana 81-70 on the road. They then followed that up with a 83-76 loss at San Jose St and a 80-58 loss at Oregon State. This team plays even less defense then PSU does. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday. 

Western Michigan's defense leaves a lot to be desired. They've allowed 70 points or more in all but one contest against a D1 level team. They play with a modest pace, but have plenty of talent offensively led by Michael Flowers, Brandon Johnson and B Artis White. Seattle definitely struggles on the defensive side of the ball having allowed 77 to Bucknell on Monday and 89 to Syracuse. Heck, they even gave up 81 to Pacific Oregon back on November 12th. They are allowing teams to shoot 56.2% from to point land. Seattle's offense isn't shooting very well, but I think they can find some success against the squad from the MAC. Give me the over here. 

Louisiana Tech heads to Indiana on Monday night as they look to move to 5-1. The Bulldogs only loss came in an 82-72 game at Creighton. Their wins haven't been that impressive with all the teams ranked either 280 or above. La Tech is shooting 56.1% from two point land, but needs to work on their long range output. The defense has been strong for the most part outside of the one game against someone with talent. LT has four double digit scorers led by transfer Kalob Ledoux. 

Indiana is 5-0 and has not left home yet this year. They are shooting 60.8% from two point range and are playing at a moderate pace. The team has scored 98, 85, 91, 100 and 79 this season against opponents ranked 200 or above by Ken Pomeroy. I just think this one should go over the total with both sides finding some success.

Creighton overs have been very good to me and I think they will be again here too. Creighton has scored 81, 69, 82 and 86 points this season as they've had a lot of success from long range. The team is shooting 42.7% from three point land and is 9th on KenPom's adjusted efficiency list. They aren't the deepest team in the world, but they can shoot it and run some offense as well. The problem is on the defensive side where teams are shooting nearly 57% from two point land. Cal Poly's offense is rather weak yet they put up 70 on Friday. North Florida plays at a quicker pace and shoots a ton of three's. When they go in, games like they had against Florida National and Georgia Southern happen in which they put up 80 or more. When they don't go in, the Florida game on opening night happens when they lost 74-59. The team's defense isn't very good and they are allowing opponents to crush them inside. The Ospreys lost 83-68 at Iowa just a few nights ago. Still, I think both offenses find success here and we soar over the total.

Bakersfield's defense has been absolutely hideous this season giving up 100 to San Francisco on the road and 93 at home to South Dakota State. The Roadrunners two wins have come over Notre Dame de Namur and Life Pacific. They also lost 67-55 at Northern Iowa in a 61 possession game. Teams are shooting 48.2% from long range against Bakersfield. Richmond transfer De'Monte Buckingham has been a vital cog to this team this season. Gonzaga has been one of the best offensive teams in the country. They have a effective field goal percentage of nearly 60%. The team is shooting 60.1% from two point land and 38% from long range. The Zags have scored 95, 110, 97, 79 and 72 so far this season. The defense has been very good as well. Still, I think Gonzaga gets to 90 again and we go over the total.

I've taken overs in both teams' games this season and of course will look to do so when they play each other. Davidson is 2-2 with wins over UNC Wilmington and Nevada and losses to Auburn and Charlotte. The Wildcats have scored 178 points in their last two victories despite playing 67 and 68 possession games. They are one of the slowest teams in the country and they allow teams to shoot almost 58% from two point land. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are a very potent duo, but they've got solid role players too. Wake Forest is 2-2 with wins against Columbia and UNC Asheville to go with losses to BC and Charlotte. Wake's defense is rather porous allowing 79 to the Bulldogs and 77 to the Eagles. Andrien White is a solid addition coming over from Charlotte to go along with Brandon Childress and Chaundee Brown. Olivier Sarr is the seven footer for the Demon Deacons. Wake won this game 67-63 last year as a two point underdog. I just think this one goes over the lower total on Friday.

McNeese State will play their fifth road game of the season already as they come in 2-4 into this matchup. The Cowboys have allowed 75 or more to every one of their D1 opponents as their two wins have come against Southern New Orleans and Arlington Baptist. These guys gave up 90 to New Mexico, 83 to Wisconsin, 85 to Louisiana and 75 to Western Michigan. They aren't bad offensively with an effective FG% of 55.1 which is well above average in basketball right now. Richmond is 3-0 on the year and they've scored 100, 93 and 90 so far this season. They are actually 8th in the effective FG% category themselves. The Spiders have a fantastic offense that is capable of putting up 90 themselves. Their defense has struggled at times giving up 98 to St. Francis of PA and 92 to Vanderbilt, granted both were in overtimes. Opponents are shooting 42% from long range against Richmond. I think this team is an over team this season and will be looking to jump on it when possible. 

St. Joe's is one of the fastest teams in the country with the ninth fastest adjusted tempo as every game has been 70 possessions or more. The Hawks defense is rather porous allowing 81 to Bradley, 82 to ODU, 87 to UConn, 85 to Loyola Chicago and 70 to Florida. Teams are shooting 41.2% from long range against them. The offense has actually been better then people think with Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk being their better weapons. Missouri State is one of the slowest teams in the country, but their offense can be pretty efficient. They put up 73 at home on Cleveland State and 70 on Miami yesterday in a game that saw 67 possessions. I think these two should be able to put up some points on Friday afternoon. Give me the over here. I think the Hawks go over the majority of the time. 

The Rockets offense has been fantastic so far this season shooting 47.3% from long range and 54.7% from up close. Toledo has scored 70 or more in all four games with the lowest total being 70 against Robert Morris in a 65 possession game. Marreon and Willie Jackson are pretty strong along with Luke Knapke patrolling the middle. Defensively teams are shooting every 15.8 seconds or so during their possession. Notre Dame is 4-1 since a 76-65 loss to North Carolina on the road. Outside of a 61 possession game against Presbyterian, this team has played games at 70 or more. During this home stretch against cupcakes, the Irish have put up 92, 79, 74 and 63. Toledo has gone over in 18 of their last 30 road games including 10 of 15 as a road underdog. I think this total is too low for two potent offenses. 

Marshall is 1-3 on the season and have lost three straight since a 67-60 win over Robert Morris. The Thundering Herd have lost 96-70 to Toledo, 74-64 to Notre Dame and 76-66 to Charleston. Marshall is currently running the 11th fastest adjusted tempo with the sixth quickest average possession length of 14 seconds. The Thundering Herd's offense hasn't been good enough, but I think they could find the success they need here. Taevion Kinsey and Jarrod West are the leaders here. Howard is 0-5 and is ranked 348th in defensive adjusted efficiency. This team has given up 70 or more to all of their opponents and somehow lost at home to Washington Adventist who is a level below. Howard's last loss was a 73 possession contest against Toledo 112-68. Teams are shooting 62.3% from two point range against the Bison. Give me the over here. 

The Gauchos are one of the slowest teams in the country, yet they are really effective on offense shooting 63% from two point land. They are 1-2 with a 83-62 win over Jackson State to go with a 77-61 loss to UCLA and a crushing 82-81 loss to Rice in which they were up really big. UCSB is allowing teams to shoot nearly 44% from long range. Max Heidegger is an underrated guard and JaQuori McLaughlin and Matt Freeman are key pieces too. Oregon State also plays slow yet they are effective as well. This team has wins over CSUN (87-67), Iowa State (80-74) and Wyoming (83-63) to go with a 77-69 loss to Oklahoma. Tres Tinkle is one of those guys who feel like he's been in school forever which is the ultimate complement. Ethan Thompson is pretty good and Kylor Kelley is a solid seven foot center. Give me the over here. 

Boston College is 3-1 on the season and is coming off a tough 100-85 home loss to Belmont on Saturday. The Eagles had been pretty good offensively beating Wake 77-70, South Florida 74-60 and High Point 59-33. In each game they went over 70 possessions with Derryck Thornton leading the way. This offense isn't the greatest in terms of talent, but the defense can be rather leaky against decent offenses. Eastern Washington wants to play with some pace on both ends of the floor. They beat Portland Bible 107-25 and Seattle 74-66 before falling 82-60 to St. Louis. The offensive numbers aren't that great, but the defensive numbers are so poor that I think the home team will do a lot of the heavy lifting. BC has gone over in 21 of their last 33 games when the total is in the 140s. They've also gone over in 19 of their last 33 home games including two of three this season. Give me the over here. 

Louisiana Tech/Creighton was my 5% play on Saturday as an over play. The Bulldogs lost 82-72 in a game that saw them have 71 possessions. This team is shooting almost 57% from two point land and already has scored 82 and 98 in their other two contests. Their defense has had a little bit of an issue especially against three point shooting. One of the fastest teams and worst defenses in the league resides in Mississippi Valley State. They've lost games 110-74 to Iowa State, 143-49 to Utah, 134-78 to Central Michigan and 91-81 to Western Michigan. The Delta Devils are allowing teams to shoot 61.7% from two point land and 41.5% from three point land. The average possession length on defense is 13.1 seconds which is the fastest in basketball. Give me the over here as I think the Bulldogs get to at least 90. 

Kent State is 3-0 on the season, playing just their second home game. This team has wins over Hiram (97-58), Towson (84-80, OT) and Wright State (72-71). They are a modestly paced team who has had 72 possessions or more in all three contests. There is plenty to like about this team with Philip Whittington, Danny Pippen and Antonio Williams. Fort Wayne is 2-3 on the year and as long as the numbers are reasonable, I will take the over in their game. This team has allowed 80 points to Manchester, 86 to UNLV, 79 to SEMO and 84 to Miami-Ohio. Now their offense has scored 70 or more in every game themselves and are shooting 54.5% from two point range. Jon Konchar is gone, but they have a little more balance this year. Fort Wayne has gone over in 23 of their last 31 road games while KSU has gone over in 16 of their last 28 at home. Give me the over here. 

Nevada is 2-2 on the young season with home wins over Loyola Marymount (72-67) and UT-Arlington (80-73) to go with losses to Utah (79-74) and USC (76-66). Every game was played with 70 possessions or more as this team averages just 15 seconds per possession. The Wolf Pack are playing pretty well against the long range shooters but are allowing teams to shoot better then 50% from two point land. Jazz Johnson and Lindsey Drew are the leading returnees to a team that saw a lot of graduations. Jalen Harris is another contributor who comes over from Louisiana Tech. Davidson is a disappointing 1-2 so far with the win coming Saturday against UNC Wilmington 87-49. They had some tough losses against Auburn and Charlotte. This offense has way too much talent to continue to struggle with Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson leading the way. This is one of the slower paced teams in the country which is why the total is lower. I still think this one should go over with these two offenses who can score. 

Georgia State is 1-2 on the year with the win coming over Brewton Parker 104-35 and the losses coming to Charleston (84-80) and Duke (74-63). The Panthers are averaging the 20th least average possession length meaning they want to play quickly. GSU is allowing an awful 44.2% offensive rebounds to their opponent. This team has no problems playing a game with over 70 possessions. Georgetown is another quick shooting team. They are 2-1 with an 81-68 win over Mt. St Mary's and a 89-78 win over Central Arkansas. They are coming off an 81-66 loss at home to Penn State and are staring at a game against Texas next. Omer Yurtseven should have a field day against this smaller team. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points. 

I think there's some value here with the lower total in the UCF/ISU game. Central Florida is 1-1 with a 73-69 home win over Prairie View A&M and a 79-70 loss at home to Miami. The win featured 72 possessions with the loss featuring 69. Ideally, this team does not want to go fast, but their defense isn't as strong with Tacko Fall not patrolling the middle anymore. Teams are shooting 39% from long range against them. The leaders are Dazon Ingram and Matt Milon who are transfers into the program along with Collin Smith and Ceasar DeJesus. Illinois State is 2-0 beating Belmont 79-72 and Little Rock 75-70 in a pair of 69 possession games. Illinois State is hitting 46% of their threes but are allowing opponents to make 60.9% of their two pointers. The Redbirds are led by Zach Copeland and have Ricky Torres who came over from Wichita State. UCF has gone over in 14 of their last 25 when the total is in the 130s. Last year this game was a 77-56 home victory for the Knights, but as I said, it had Tacko Fall who made a huge difference. I think this one can go over the lower total. 

Troy is 0-2 on the season as they head to Indiana on Saturday. The Trojans lost 76-75 to UAB and 74-68 to Chattanooga with both games being at home. Their defensive adjusted efficiency is pretty bad meaning Indiana should be able to get whatever they want. Darian Adams averages 16 points through two games and is 8-of-14 from long range. He's got Charles Norman and KJ Simon with him in the backcourt. Troy has been shooting 40.7% from long range, but they are not doing much from the free throw line. Indiana is 3-0 as they take on the low of the low's in the KenPom rankings. They beat WIU 98-65, Portland State 85-74 and North Alabama 91-65. In each game except one they had over 70 possessions and at times struggled defensively. The Hoosiers are allowing opponents to shoot 40.7% from long range. Indiana has gone over in 12 of their last 17 November games including all three this year. I think this one goes over the total as well.

Stetson is 2-0 entering their game against Fort Wayne on Saturday. The Hatters went 7-24 last year, but have some talent back under new head coach Donnie Jones. They beat Trinity Baptist 84-26 in game one and then followed it up with a road win at Western Illinois 77-75. This team has been very efficient on offense through two games shooting almost 55% from two point land and 45% from long range. They have not been forcing turnovers though and are pretty bad on defense. The Mastodons are 1-3 with a 91-80 win over Manchester to go with losses of 86-71 to UNLV, 79-78 to SEMO and 84-80 to Miami-Ohio. Defensively, this team is rather awful ranking 319th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They are shooting well from the field themselves, but are allowing teams to shoot 54.5% from two and 37.1% from three. I've said it before and I'll say it again...this team's overs are almost instabets for the most part. They play with pace and can't stop anyone.

UNC Wilmington is 2-1 on the season and is at Davidson on Saturday. The Seahawks wins came 103-83 over Johnson and Wales and 81-76 against Campbell with the loss being 78-62 to UNC. This team plays little to no defense and hasn't the past few years. Davidson is 0-2 and will probably use this game to get a lot of frustrations out after losing 76-66 to Auburn and 71-58 to Charlotte. Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson are too good to see this team continue to lose like this. Their starting five is very good and will want to exorcise some demons. Last year this game was 91-85 on the road and 108-81 at home for Davidson. UNC Wilmington has gone over in 11 of their last 12 games with a total in the 140s. I think this one continues that trend.

Louisiana Tech returns four starters and are led by McNeese State transfer Kalob Ledoux who is averaging 15.5 points per game for the Bulldogs. Ledoux is shooting 7-of-17 from deep and is a good complementary scorer to DaQuan Bracey who is more of a distributor. The lineup also includes JaColby Pemberton who plays bigger then his 6'5" frame. This team wants to play fast forcing 49 turnovers in two games so far. Creighton's depth has been challenged, but their coach says that they are going to continue to keep things fast. The Blue Jays are 1-1 with an 81-55 win over Kennesaw State and a 79-69 loss to Michigan. This team is 6th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot 58% from two point land. To me, this is an over with both teams wanting to go.