Radford lost 70-62 at VCU last year against a much better team. The Highlanders will grind game to a halt and we're no longer getting a VCU team that forces turnovers. The home team is 341st in turnover percentage on offense themselves. They are struggling to hit threes and almost 52% of their shots are from there. Radford has defended three well vs. UNC and Marshall. 

- Wichita is 1-0 after a 76-59 win over Lipscomb that saw 71 possessions. 

- Paul Mills has a system that promotes running on offense. 

- WKU is 1-0 after a 90-64 win over Kentucky Wesleyan that had 76 possessions. 

- Steve Lutz is another new coach that wants to run. 

- Fairfield lost their opener 89-70 at BC on Monday. 

- Rhody won 81-70 over CCSU on Monday, but they shot really poorly from the FT line and didn't force many TO's on defense. 

- Last year the Rams played 14 games at home that were either single digit wins or straight up losses. 

Chris Creighton is 32-14-1 ATS as a road underdog at Eastern Michigan. Worth a sprinkle if you are looking for action tonight.

It's been a rough lead up to the season for Air Force who lost both of their secret scrimmages against Metropolitan State of Denver and the University of Denver. Head coach Joe Scott said that "not really anything" went right in those contests. His team lost Jake Heidbreder to Clemson and also found out that Lucas Moerman was leaving the program just a few days before the season begins. Returning leading scorer Rytis Petraitis is out due to a lingering shoulder injury while several other players have dealt with injuries throughout the fall. The Vikings certainly aren't great, but they return 66% of last year's minutes and have a few interesting transfers coming in from Texas Tech and South Carolina. Last year Air Force lost 68-64 at Portland State. Heidbreder and Petraitis combined for 38 points in that one. Give me the underdog on Monday night. 

The Illini have a very intriguing team in the Big 10 with three returning starters and some transfers led by Quincy Guerrier, Marcus Domask and Justin Harmon from Utah Valley. Brad Underwood teams run and put up a lot of points against overmatched teams. They faced this EIU team last year in the opener and won 87-57 in a 76 possession contest. They scored 85 or more six times last season in the non-conference. EIU has absolutely no size to counter the athleticism that will come at them. This one should be a blowout. 

North Carolina attempts to continue their run through the ACC tourney as they take on Syracuse. The Heels beat Virginia Tech 78-56 in a game that wasn't very close. With the victory, UNC has now won four of their last five with one of those coming by the score of 92-79 in Syracuse. The Heels crashed the boards and got seven three pointers from Cole Anthony in the win. Their size and shooting willed them to victory over the smaller Orange. We saw how much of a crowd edge they have for this game and that'll be huge as well. Last year UNC beat Syracuse at home too and seemingly has had a solid formula on how to beat the 2-3 zone. If Elijah Hughes isn't on then this game could get very ugly. Give me the Tar Heels in this one. 

Vandy enters the tournament with a little bit of confidence after wins over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commodores are quickening their pace and have scored 87 and 83 in their last two games. Defense is still an issue checking in 295th in 2pt% and 265th in 3pt%. These two teams played back on January 15th with the Razorbacks winning 75-55 at home. Arkansas features the 45th quickest tempo and has an average possession length of 16.8 seconds. They have scored 85 or more in three of their last four. This game should see plenty of pace so give me the over here. 

Iowa State is limping down the stretch as they play potentially their last game of the season. The Cyclones have lost three straight and 10 of their last 13. They lost by 16 at Kansas State, by 12 to these same Cowboys, by 30 to Texas Tech and by 20 to Kansas. They are just not the same without Tyrese Haliburton and it looks like they won't have Rasir Bolton either. That places more pressure on Solomon Young, Prentiss Nixon (who is also not 100%) and Michael Jacobson. Oklahoma State has won three straight and six of their last eight. One of those wins as mentioned came at home against ISU. Bolton led them with 16 points, six rebounds and four assists in that one. I just think Iowa State is ready for the season to end and the Cowboys will hand it to them. 

Gonzaga is in the title game once again and they are taking on St. Mary's for a third time. The Zags beat the Gaels 90-60 at their place back on February 8th and 86-76 at home just a couple of weeks ago. They are one of the most efficient offenses in the country checking in 3rd in 2pt% and 5th in 3pt%. Gonzaga is coming off a 81-77 win over San Francisco last time out and their defense was a little leaky. Over their last six games, they've given up 75 or more four times. I think this line is going down because of what people saw last night in a 51-50 game against BYU. St. Mary's defense has struggled all year against the better teams and BYU had one of their worst efforts on offense last night. I don't know if I see that happening again tonight with the Zags who have a lot more weapons. If this thing gets tight, then free throws come into play as well. 

:: Writeup coming ::

Illinois-Chicago has won three straight and six of their last seven entering this title game against NKU. One of those wins came over the Norse at their place 73-43 in a contest that was truly not very close. The Flames are playing with a quicker pace and are playing lockdown defense holding five straight opponents to less than 70 points. Since conference play began, they are holding opponents to just 26.1% from long range and are shooting really well themselves. The one concern is their turnover percentage which isn't great. Tarkus Ferguson will be one of the best players on the court in this one. He's coming off a 25 point performance against Wright State. Northern Kentucky is the more rested team having played just one game so far in the conference tourney. They limped into the tourney a bit splitting their last four games. The defense has been good against the two, while they are shooting just 28.8% from long range. 

Wake Forest is playing some better basketball than Pittsburgh right now. The Demon Deacons have home wins over Duke and Notre Dame along with a solid 10 point loss to UNC on the resume the last few weeks. Now don't get it twisted, this team isn't great by any stretch, but they have some talent and are top 100 in 3pt% and FT%. The two squads played back on January 4th with Wake winning 69-65 at Pittsburgh. Neither team shot it well from long range and Wake had 14 turnovers, but still won. The Panthers have lost seven straight down the stretch and have been rather porous defensively. They've scored over 60 points just twice over the losing skid. The Panthers are 328th in 2pt% and 329th in 3pt%. The Deacons should also have the slight homecourt advantage. Give me the slight underdog. 

St. Mary's gets BYU in the semifinals of the WCC. They are coming off a 2OT win 89-82 over Pepperdine in the quarterfinals. The Gaels defense is nowhere near as good as it used to be. They allowed 80 or more six times in WCC play. The offense is 58th in 2pt%, 5th in 3pt% and 48th in FT%. The two meetings with BYU were high scoring with one being 87-84 in OT and the other 81-79. The Cougars are ridiculously efficient on offense. They shoot the best in the country from three and ninth best from two point land. BYU has put up 80 or more seven times over this current nine game win streak. Yoeli Childs makes such a difference for them and could do so once again on Monday. Give me the over here. 

Wright State plays at a really fast tempo checking in 32nd as they take on UIC on Monday. They take an average of 15.8 seconds per offensive possession and shoot the ball really well from long range. The Raiders have scored 70 or more in every conference game except for two. The team's defense has been a mixed bag. In their two meetings with the Flames, UIC won 76-72 at home and lost 75-58 at WSU. Each game saw 75 or more possessions so there will be plenty of chances to add to this total. The Flames are 39th in defensive average possession length checking in at 16.8 seconds. They play good defense against the three, but turn the ball over a ton. UIC's defense has struggled at times against some of the better offenses in the conference. I think this one should be close and see plenty of possessions.

The Tribe are the 2 seed in the CAA tournament and closed the regular season with a flourish winning five straight after a three game losing streak. They get Elon in this neutral court game whom they beat in the regular season finale at home 86-79 in a 72 possession game. Meeting one was at the start of the CAA campaign with the road team winning 74-73 at Elon. The Tribe's offense is really efficient right now with the 22nd ranked 2pt% and 76th ranked 3pt%. Nathan Knight was named POY and is by far the best player in the conference. William and Mary actually played in this gym back in December losing to St. Francis of PA 78-72 so it's not unfamiliar surroundings to them. Elon wants to play a slower style, but has been dragged into "quicker" games against teams who play with tempo. Case in point, the 72 possession game in Williamsburg and the 72 possession contest vs. JMU. I think this one is an over on Sunday. 

This line seems to be a bit hefty for a title game. Lipscomb has won nine of their last 11 with one of those wins came at home against Liberty to end the regular season. The Bison aren't a great defensive team and are pretty mediocre when it comes to offense as well. They'll go as Ahsan Asadullah goes in the middle. His usage is very high and he's had good games against Liberty. In the six point win he put up 18 points adding eight assists and in the seven point loss on the road he had 11 pts and five rebounds. Liberty plays with one of the slowest paces in the country which greatly reduces the amount of possessions in a contest. They are coming off a four point home win over Stetson in a 56 possession contest. Before that in the conference tourney the Flames won by six at home against NJIT. I think this one could be tight again with the Bison playing so well right now. 

Hampton is one win away from repping the Big South and standing in their way is a road trip to Winthrop on Sunday. The Pirates already won at Radford 86-78 on Friday in a true road game. Hampton has won four of their last six games and feature the incredible duo of Jermaine Marrow and Ben Stanley. The two of them combined for 57 points in the team's 116-95 home loss to Winthrop, but then they had 54 in the team's road win at Winthrop about a month later. The Eagles are playing really well right now, but their defense is very hit or miss. They have lost at home to the Pirates already as well as Radford with three other home contests decided by single digits. I just think this is way too many points for a very live underdog with confidence. Pressure will be on them to close out the deal and I think this one is tight. 

South Dakota State is one of the best teams in the Summit League. They are 13-3 with 10 of those wins coming by double digit in league play. They have the second best 2pt FG percentage in the country and can hit the three as well. The balance they have will be tough for the Dons who check in 326th against the 2 and 269th against the 3. IPFW is turning it over in just over 20% of their possessions and have lost six conference games by double digits. They lost by 11 at SDSU and by nine at home earlier this season. The Jackrabbits shot the ball ridiculously well in both games and dominated the boards. This game isn't at SDSU's campus, but it's played in the state. They should win this one rather easily.

The Bears could finally be playing up to their potential and have just two wins til the MVC title. Missouri State is coming off a demolishing of Indiana State 78-51 and is taking on a Valpo team they lost 89-74 to a few weeks ago. SMS is 6-3 in their last nine and it's because of an offense that has found itself and a defense that has perked up big time. The Bears are a good FT and 3pt shooting team and were supposed to be towards the top of this conference. Injuries and maybe expectations derailed that early. Valpo is playing their third game in three days and are coming off a tough 74-73 overtime win over Loyola Chicago. Valpo lost to Missouri State 67-60 on the road back on January 23rd so these two split their two regular season meetings. I just think that the Bears are better and should be able to move on.

Duke is 2-3 in their last five games as they host UNC. You may remember about one month ago, the Blue Devils went to Chapel Hill and won a wild one 98-96 in overtime. The Heels had a huge lead evaporate on them, but they were able to find some offense. The Blue Devils are coming off an 88-69 home win over NC State extending their streak to three straight at home where they put up 85 or more. Duke's pace means we should see plenty of possessions especially at home. Yes, they have good numbers defensively, but they've struggled against offenses with a pulse. UNC has won three straight scoring 85, 92 and 93 points. They've started to figure things out a little bit and have the inside-outside duo with Anthony and Brooks. I think this one should see plenty of possessions and plenty of points.

Louisville has lost three straight on the road as they enter this one against UVA in Charlottesville on Saturday. The Cardinals can be a very shaky team losing by six at Georgia Tech and by 15 at Clemson and Florida State. Louisville's offense is very hot and cold as a unit and going up against UVA is not the elixir to fix something like that. Somehow UL put up 80 on the Wahoos at home back on February 8th in an 80-73 win. The odd thing was that it was a 59 possession game. UVA's defense has been locking down opponents all season and they have to have the confidence that they can win a close game as every one of their contests is a one or two possession matchup. Give me the hot home team over the inconsistent road team. 

Creighton overs at home are one of my favorite plays of the season. At home in conference play, they've scored 92, 59, 78, 77, 94, 93, 81 and 91 points. The Jays are the 9th best team in terms of three point FG percentage and are top 50 in both 2pt and FT shooting as well. The defense isn't great, but it's also not terrible either. They don't force many turnovers and beat Seton Hall on the road 87-82 earlier this year in a 76 possession game that saw Myles Powell shoot 3-16 from the field. That won't happen again this time. Seton Hall is 3-3 in their last six and 7-1 on the road in Big East play. They have scored 70 or more in every one of those contests. Both teams want to play with some pace and Creighton blisters the nets in Omaha. Give me the over here as I think it sails over the total. 

Wake Forest is playing some good basketball down the stretch as they play at NC State. The Demon Deacons recently picked up home wins over Duke and Notre Dame and put up 83 in a 10 point loss in Chapel Hill. This offense has scored 75 or more in four straight contests. They are hitting 75% of their FT's and almost 35% of their threes. The Demon Deacon defense has been rather porous on the road especially in conference where they gave up 90 at Duke, 90 at Notre Dame, 86 at Louisville and the aforementioned 93 at UNC. These two played back on December 7th in Winston Salem with the Wolfpack winning 91-82. NC State has played with a faster than average pace. They are coming off an 88-69 loss to Duke and need a solid effort to help them make the tourney. I think this one should see plenty of points on Friday.

EIU is one of the hotter teams in the OVC having won five straight and six of their last eight. One of those wins came over Austin Peay at home 83-80 in overtime. The Panthers lost at Austin Peay 68-64 on February 1st in another close contest. In the loss, they were up 13 in the first half and were up four with just over three minutes left in the game. Free throw shooting is definitely a concern for this team as they check in at 66.1% which is 313th. They might have won the game against Peay that they lost if they were better. Still, teams like this are better as underdogs than favorites. Another positive is that EIU has a game under their belt in this arena so they will be a little more familiar. Austin Peay went 4-4 down the stretch and numerically their defense is actually rather bad. They are 294th against the 2 and 323rd against the 3. I think the underdogs are worth a look here and this should be a close game. 

Wisconsin Green Bay has won six of their last eight and gets the chance to get some revenge on Oakland who beat them on the road in double overtime a couple off weeks ago. The Phoenix play with one of the quickest tempos in college basketball and have played really well at home since losing two early conference contests there. This squad is 24th in 3pt FG% and 32nd in FT%. Oakland is on the opposite side as they play with one of the slower paces and has at times struggled on the road. They are 323rd in three point shooting as well. These two split their two meetings with the home team winning each time. The Phoenix blew a double digit lead to Oakland at their place in the 2OT loss. I just think they are the better squad and they'll start fast on their way to a victory. 

We're going to take a really rare under in a game that could see under 60 possessions. These two teams played twice during the regular season with the first game being a 54 possession affair at Stetson and a 61 possession tilt at home. The Flames have the 352nd quickest tempo and are taking an average of 21 seconds per offensive possession while opponents are taking 18.3 seconds on defense. This team is lockdown on D and in conference play has allowed 55 points or less seven times at home. They want to drag things out as much as possible. Stetson checks in with the 347th quickest tempo and 342nd in average possession length at 19.9 seconds. The two scores of the games these two played were 48-43 and 77-49. The Hatters have played four games below 60 possessions in conference play. I just don't know how this goes over the total on Thursday. 

Rhode Island is in must win mode now as they host Dayton on Wednesday. The Rams play with the 40th quickest tempo and the 39th quickest offensive possession time. They go as Dowtin, Russell and Martin go at Guard along with Langevine at center. These two played under a month ago and Dayton won 81-67 in a 74 possession game. URI shot horrifically in that game, but had 18 offensive rebounds which prevented things from getting worse. Obi Toppin and Trey Landers picked up double-doubles in the win. Dayton shoots 63.1% from two point land and has put up glossy numbers on offense. Their defense has been pretty good as well with some of their "worse" efforts being on the road. I think this one goes over the total on Wednesday.

Georgetown continues to play without Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven which means they'll play six guys once again. We usually don't find out their status until closer to game-time. If they are out, then Creighton 1st half and game are the way to go. I think the Jays blow them out like they do everyone else it seems at home. 

If somehow we find out that they both are playing then play the over. Creighton could push 90 here I think. 

Arkansas plays with the 55th quickest tempo in the country as they host LSU. The Razorbacks want to get out and run at home as evidenced by them scoring 75 or more seven times there. They don't turn it over and are relatively efficient from two. The team is the best against the three but are vulnerable up close and are rather awful on the boards. LSU plays with a quick pace and is 16th in the country in two point shooting percentage. They have struggled on the road giving up 80 or more six times in SEC play. They are 283rd against the three pointer so we'll see if Arkansas can take advantage. These two played back on 1/8 in Baton Rouge with the Tigers winning 79-77. I think we could see something similar in this one. 

ODU hosts UTSA on Wednesday night and they lost to the Roadrunners at home back on 2/6 in an 85-81 overtime game that saw Jhivvan Jackson go nuts. He and Keaton Wallace combined for 66 of the team's 85 total points on that day. The two teams went to overtime tied at 71 in a game that saw 81 possessions. UTSA has a horrific defense and teams have an average possession time of 16.7 seconds which is the 28th quickest in the country. On the road they've allowed 75 or more in every contest during conference play. UTSA's offense struggles to shoot, but they do make their free throws. Old Dominion's offense is rather horrific so that's a bit of a worry, but they've been better at home. In Conference USA play, they scored 70 or more five times including last time out in an 85-80 overtime win. I just think that they'll do some work on the Roadrunners and this one should go over the total again. 

Tennessee has had some lower totals as of late and I've been able to take advantage of them at Auburn and at Arkansas. The Vols offense is underwhelming having scored less than 70 in five straight games and they play with a slower pace, but on the road they've given up 86 at Arkansas, 73 at Auburn and 86 at Mississippi State. Kentucky's in the biggest of sandwich spots coming off the 7 point win over Auburn and a road game at Florida next. Still, at home, they've had some success at getting to the rack. These two played a 64 possession game in Knoxville with UK winning 77-64. They shot 50% from three and missed just three free throws. Tennessee's offense struggled, but they also had 12 offensive rebounds and just eight turnovers. I realize this is a lower total and I know why, but I also think it can go over. 

Buffalo plays with the seventh quickest pace and the 4th shortest offensive possession time. The Bulls have played every game at home except for one at 70+ possessions. Their defense has been rather awful lately which means a mediocre Redhawks offense could find some room. UB gave up 86 at home to Akron and 80 at Ohio last week. Miami Ohio has won two straight and is playing with some confidence putting up over 70 in each of those victories. The defense doesn't travel though with them allowing 70 or more in all but one contest. These two played in Oxford back on January 10th with the Bulls winning 83-78 in a 78 possession game. I could see something similar at home for UB who will be a lot more comfortable. 

Louisville is back home where they host Virginia Tech on Sunday. The Cardinals have lost three of their last five, but are coming off a stretch where they played three games in five days. The last one of those was a 15 point loss to Florida State where they just didn't seem to have anything left emotionally. Now they are home where they've beaten their last few opponents by 17, 24, 7 and 10. This team plays very well defensively and shoots it well from long range. Virginia Tech was 14-5 and since then has lost eight of their last nine. The offense doesn't rebound it well and their defense has dried up a bit. They lost by 24 at Duke, by 19 at Georgia Tech and by 10 at Miami. I just feel like the Cardinals should be able to do whatever they want and win this one rather easily. 

Another trend I'm going to continue to play is the first half over in Gonzaga. It hit with about 3 minutes left in the first half last time out and now we're getting a lower number. I stayed off this play when these two played in St. Mary's and that hit easily as well. The Gaels defense hasn't been as stout as it's been known for in the past. They gave up 72 at Santa Clara last time out and have also allowed 79 at BYU and 84 at home to that same team. Now I'm not expecting a 90-60 game like what happened in Moraga, but I do think the Zags offense continues to succeed. This team is usually good for 45-50 points in a half and I think the Gaels can do their part as well. Give me this first half over.

Green Bay plays with the 10th quickest tempo in the country and have the quickest offensive possession length at 14.5 seconds. They are 21st in three point percentage offense and 31st in FT% and are rather porous in both defensive categories as well. At home they've scored 80 or more five times in conference and beat CSU on the road 78-74 in a 71 possession game. That is notable because the Vikings don't go at a quick pace and don't have a very good offense either. Opponents have the 34th quickest possession time against them which means we'll see this thing crack 70+ I'm guessing. On the road they've played games with scores of 82-80 at IUPUI and 79-74 at Oakland. I think the Phoenix put on a show at home in their final regular season game.

This one seems almost too good to be true. The Hoos defense is almost better this year than it was last year and they've got to have more confidence than Duke right now. Every game with this team is an adventure as they've played almost everything within 5-6 points. The key for this game will be for them to get Vernon Carey into foul trouble and keep their bigs out of foul trouble. The Blue Devils are decent at three point shooting, but will it be good enough for them to win? They've lost their last two road games with their last two wins away from home being an underwhelming 63-55 victory at BC and a miracle OT win in Chapel Hill. The moneyline could be in play, but I like the spread more as the Hoos round into form.

The Citadel will have it's hands full as they try to prevent a winless conference season. They travel to Furman to take on a Paladins team hoping to get in the NCAA Tourney. These two played back on 1/25 with Furman winning 78-54 on the road. The Citadel's defense away from home has been pretty putrid allowing 96, 91, 88, 76, 92 and 88 over their last six contests. They are 350th in two point defense and 224th in three point D. Furman is coming off an impressive 81-67 win at UNC Greensboro. Maybe there's a bit of a slow start, but they should win rather easily. At home they put up 101 on Samford back on 1/22 and can score in bunches. The thing is that they are 317th against the two so I think the Citadel could score a little too. Furman's getting to 90 and we're getting the over. 

They can't set Hampton totals high enough especially at home. They've continued to cash for me as every game in conference for the most part has been really high scoring. Jermaine Marrow is the highest scoring D1 athlete in Virginia and he forms a great duo with Ben Stanley inside. This team doesn't play any defense checking in 315th in 2 pt D and 326th in 3 pt D. These two played at USC Upstate back on 1/8 and it was an 83-73 Hampton loss in 82 possessions. The Spartans play at an average pace and also are rather porous on defense especially since they rank 325th against the 2. They are coming off a 90-82 loss at home to Winthrop. This team can score a little bit, but also their defense is bad. I'm going to continue to ride the trends and take the over.

Elon is playing some better basketball as of late having won five of their last seven including a win at Charleston and a home victory over Northeastern. The Phoenix still don't have a great offense, but they've put up 70 or more in five straight and six of their last seven. The squad is 320th in three point defense and lost to the Tribe way back in game one of the CAA season 74-73 at home in a 64 possession game. Elon won't let this game get too fast, but that doesn't mean William and Mary won't score. The Tribe are 20-10 and have won four in a row. Outside of the 61-51 road win at Towson, this team's offense is clicking right now. They are 23rd in two point FG%, 83rd in 3pt FG% and 72nd in FT%. The defense can be a bit leaky. I think this one is an over and we rarely get totals this "low" in Williamsburg.

Portland won their second WCC game against San Francisco back on January 4th. Since then, they've lost 13 in a row with the road losses in conference coming by 26, 12, 11, 22, 7, 20 and 16. This team has a pretty hideous offense that has scored less than 60 in four of their last six. I think we are getting some value on this line because Santa Clara has lost six in a row including three at home. As a matter of fact, this team's last win came over Portland 85-61 on the road. That makes this line rather stinky because the Broncos offense has some potential. I'll take the bait, but hope they start fast and get the lead early.

Iowa is a completely different team at home and haven't lost there since falling to DePaul back in November. At home in conference this team has scored 67, 90, 85, 68, 72, 96 and 85. They play with a quicker than average pace and have many weapons on offense to worry about. These two teams played a tight game at the Palestra back in early January with the Nittany Lions winning 89-86. Penn State plays faster than the Hawkeyes with a top 45 tempo. On the road in Big 10 play they've struggled defensively. I just see a lot of points in this one as Iowa just plays that much better at home.

This game has a lower total, but I think we can get over it. Let's start with meeting one that was a 70-69 game with 66 possessions and both teams being efficient from two point land. UIC has won five of their last seven and has the 32nd quickest possessions on defense which means teams find shots quickly. The Flames also turn it over around 23% of their possessions. On the other side, Detroit has lost six of their last seven and are ranked 18th in shortest possessions for opponents on offense. This team is the 2nd best in the country at free throw shooting, but they can't score from two point range. The good thing for our total is that the Titans defense is hideous. I think this is a tighter game and we sneak over this total. 

Hampton has won two straight and three of their last five entering this one. The Pirates are a fantastic team at home scoring 92, 83, 95, 83, 87, 80 and 87 in conference. They are speeding everyone up right now with Ben Stanley and Jermaine Marrow. The defense is absolutely hideous as well ranking 318th defending the 2 and 317th in defending the 3. Radford is one of the slowest teams in the country, but the offense has scored 70 or more in seven straight. They had a 72 possession road game with Winthrop too. The Pirates sped them up to 69 possessions in meeting one. I think this one is an over AND I think Hampton is a very live home dog. Don't parlay them, but I like both the side and the total. 

Hampton has won two straight and three of their last five entering this one. The Pirates are a fantastic team at home scoring 92, 83, 95, 83, 87, 80 and 87 in conference. They are speeding everyone up right now with Ben Stanley and Jermaine Marrow. The defense is absolutely hideous as well ranking 318th defending the 2 and 317th in defending the 3. Radford is one of the slowest teams in the country, but the offense has scored 70 or more in seven straight. They had a 72 possession road game with Winthrop too. The Pirates sped them up to 69 possessions in meeting one. I think this one is an over AND I think Hampton is a very live home dog. Don't parlay them, but I like both the side and the total. 

You ever have a team you stubbornly believe in despite the fact they are having a poor season? For me, it's UTSA who I had high hopes for and is 12-15 entering this game against Florida Atlantic. Down the stretch they went 2-2 with close losses at Charlotte and at home to Western Kentucky. Jackson and Wallace are one of the best backcourts that no one talks about. The offense is not as good as I had hoped before the year and their defense is absolutely hideous. They lost 79-64 at FAU back on January 2nd, but Jackson went 3-18 in that one and the Owls had everything go right. FAU is just 15-13 with home losses to FIU, UAB and St. Bonaventure. Four of their victories in C-USA play at home were by single digits. They don't do anything particularly well. I'll take my shot with the Roadrunners here. 

Arkansas plays with a quicker than average pace especially at home where they like to play to the crowd. Their offense is pretty good from two point land, but the number one thing they do is defend the three pointer. They are the best in the country at it. The Razorbacks managed to put up 78 on Missou at home last time out and the Tigers don't want to play that quick. At home in SEC play, Arkansas has scored 69, 75, 66, 77, 76, 77 and 78. Tennessee is one of the slowest teams in the country and are mediocre offensively. Still, away from home, they've given up 73 to Auburn, 86 to Mississippi State, 74 to Kansas and 80 to Georgia. They won't want to run, but Arkansas is going to want payback after losing 82-61 in Rocky Top. The Razorbacks shot hideously in that one. They won't do that at home. I think this one is an over. 

It's the final home game of the regular season for UNI as they host Evansville. UNI is coming off a solid second half effort where they outscored SIU by 20 points on their way to a 12 point win. The Panthers have been fantastic at home especially against the lower teams in this conference. They are the third best three point shooting team in the country and the 29th best FT shooting team. Northern Iowa won at Evansville back on 2/1 80-68. The Purple Aces have not won in the Missouri Valley losing their road games by 13, 34, 23, 2, 11, 11, 5 and 17. They don't play good defense and their offense is rather hideous. This feels like a name your score type of game and that should be more than 15. 

Furman and Greensboro play once again on Wednesday with the Spartans home this time. Back on January 11th, they won a road game 86-73 in a 71 possession contest against the Paladins. This one saw both teams shoot 60% or better from two point land and UNCG made 81% of their FT. By the numbers, UNCG plays a below average pace, but if you look, they've had 70+ possession games in five of their last six. They are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country which could get frustrating down the stretch in a close game. Furman is another team that plays at a less than average pace, but they are pretty efficient on offense. On the road, this team has had someone get to 70 points or more in four straight. You can beat the Paladins inside as they are 318th in two point defense. I think the possession number could be in the high 60s and we'll see some efficient offense from both teams. 

To me, this seems like too many points. UCF has won three of their last five and doesn't do anything particularly well and particularly awful. Their zone defense is effective and has helped them get road wins in the AAC at Tulane, ECU and Cincinnati. They've also had single digit losses at SMU and Wichita State. UConn has won four of their last six, but they are another team that doesn't shoot it well and plays good defense. The Huskies just don't blow a ton of teams out with six of their conference home games being decided by single digits with losses to Wichita St and Tulsa there. I think this is a lot of points in a game that could be lower scoring. Give me the underdog. 

Auburn overs especially at home have treated me well. The Tigers are shooting 53.2% from two point land and play at a pretty good pace. Not only that, but from time to time they are good for an extra period with four overtimes already. Auburn has scored 73, 95, 91, 75, 80, 80, 82 and 83 at home in SEC play. These two played an 83-82 2OT game back in January with the score at the end of regulation being 66 all so they still needed to do some work to get over the total then. Ole Miss plays with a modest pace, but they are coming off a 103-78 loss at home to Alabama. The team has struggled to score on the road which is why I'm guessing this is a lower total. Still, there's some talent there led by Breein Tyree and Khadim Sy among others. I think this one should go over the total on Tuesday. 

I like the Huskies especially in the underdog role. If you look at their MAC games, they've played 12 single digit games with victories in eight of them. The Huskies play smothering defense which is important considering they aren't the best shooting team. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 65 points or less. Eastern Michigan shoots it worse than the Huskies do, but they've won five of their last seven. Homecourt hasn't been automatic with three losses in MAC play there along with two other single digit games. These two played back on January 11th in DeKalb with NIU winning 71-68. EMU shot 52% from two point range, but the two squads combined to shoot 13-43 from long range. NIU out-rebounded the Eagles as well. I just think the underdog is worth a look here.

Southern Illinois has lost two of three since a seven game win streak. One of those victories came over Northern Iowa back a month ago. In that game UNI shot the ball pretty well, but took only four free throws compared to 23 for SIU. The score could have been much worse for the Salukis if they had made more freebies. This is a Southern Illinois team that has lost six road games by double digits and it's because of an offense that has scuffled to the tune of 38 at Valpo, 48 at Bradley, Loyola Chicago and Missouri. UNI has lost two straight and doesn't have any sort of look-ahead here so we should get a focused effort. The Panthers are the 4th best three point shooting team and 37th in two point percentage. At home, they've been pretty good at starting fast. I think they get focused and win this one rather easily.

This bet didn't hit last time out because of a lackluster half by the Zags. I don't think we see that here as we get a BYU team that also wants to run and will do so at home. The Cougars are the 13th best two point shooting team and the best three point shooting squad. In meeting one in Spokane it was a 92-69 win for the Zags in a 74 possession game. The halftime score was 38-31 between the two squads which wouldn't be enough here, but I think we get more on the road. At home in WCC play, BYU has put up 63, 96, 93, 107, 81, 90 and 85. Gonzaga on the road in WCC play has scored 85, 94, 87, 87, 83, 90 and 89. These two should have some free-flowing offense with plenty of possessions. Give me the over in this one. 

North Dakota State has won seven straight entering this one against their rival North Dakota. The Bison play with a slow pace, but they don't turn it over and are pretty efficient on offense. This team beat UND 83-74 at home back on 1/19 in a 66 possession game. Both teams shot the ball really well in that one and missed just five total free throws which helped contribute to the total. The Bison's road games in this conference have had scores of 77-74, 86-78, 71-60, 70-49, 78-73, 79-73 and 66-55. As you can see, it's a mixed bag as to whether or not the defense shows up. The Fighting Hawks are allowing opponents to have the 3rd shortest possession time on offense. They are 333rd in three point defense and 222nd in two point defense. The offense hasn't been that terrible, but their defense has allowed 94, 82, 68, 77, 71, 66 and 69 at home. I just think this conference is very conducive to overs so let's take it here. 

Boston College is not a bad team at home this season. They have wins over Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech and NC State there with an eight point loss to Duke as well. The Eagles have dealt with a ton of injuries and hopefully will have Derryck Thornton who was out for the last game due to back spasms he had in shoot-around. There are some decent options behind him, but this team plays some decent defense. Clemson is 13-12 with road wins at UNC and Pittsburgh. They are coming off an impressive win at home over Louisville who was scuffling at the time. Clemson doesn't shoot the three well at all. Their offense has scored 54 at NC State, 62 at Louisville and 44 at both Virginia and Wake Forest. I think they are giving the Tigers too much credit and the home team is a live dog.

The Tribe have won three straight and are coming off the rare shutdown defensive effort in holding Towson to 51 points in a 61-51 win. William and Mary's offense has been the story and JMU just doesn't have anyone to match up with Nathan Knight. The nation's leading double-double guy had 19 points and 11 rebounds against the Dukes in a 88-75 win in Williamsburg. Andy Van Vliet had a big game in that one as well. Meanwhile, JMU is 2-13 in CAA play and has lost all but one of their home games there. The Dukes play at a quick pace, but don't score the ball well at all and at times get lost defensively. At this number, I'd consider the spread, but any higher and I'm looking at the moneyline. 

Vegas continues to provide great prices to back the Blue Hens at. Since starting 2-4 in the CAA, they've lost just once and are now sitting at 10-5. One of those wins was 73-71 at Hofstra back on 1/23. It was a nip and tuck affair that saw Delaware shoot 60% from two, but only 3-20 from long range. They out-rebounded Hofstra in that one and held them to well below their season average shooting. Offensively UD is 12th in 2pt% and 57th in 3pt%. The only thing they don't really do well is force turnovers. They've lost just twice at home this season and have won a lot of their games there by a healthy margin. Hofstra is another efficient offense, but their defense is nowhere near as strong. They've also lost four times on the road. The Pride have won seven straight with four of those coming at home. Right now I have to keep backing the Blue Hens especially at home. 

Pace will not be an issue on Saturday afternoon as Winthrop hosts Hampton. These two played over a month ago in Virginia with the Pirates losing 116-95 in an 84 possession game. Hampton's road performances have not been great offensively and certainly not defensively. This team has gone over or flirted with the over in most of their games as the possession numbers continue to fly up. Winthrop has scored 85 or more eight times already at home. Their defense isn't that great either and the only thing that worries me about this is the early start time. To me, we'll see 80+ possessions once again and lots of points in an early over.

** Also play Over 76.5 1st half **

Auburn is back home after two rough efforts at Missouri and Georgia. The Tigers are a completely different team at home where they've scored 83, 82, 80, 80, 75, 91 and 95 points in SEC play. They are really efficient checking in 31st in two point baskets. Auburn can play good defense, but they've struggled without Okoro in the lineup. Tennessee's offense is not very good, but their defense is pretty stellar. They are 9th in 2 pt defense and 3rd in block percentage. Ideally they don't want to run, but they played a 72 possession game at Alabama. The Vols gave up 80 at Georgia, 86 at Mississippi State and 74 at Kansas. The worry here is that they ugly the game up and it's played in the 60s. Still, it feels like Auburn is due a breakout effort and it could come on Saturday.

BYU has a MASSIVE game coming up next with #2 Gonzaga coming to town on Saturday, but before then it's a contest with Santa Clara. The Cougars are the best three point shooting team in the land and are 11th in two point offense. At home in conference they've scored 63, 96, 93, 107, 81 and 90 so you know points will come. Their defense has been very hot and cold, but I feel like the letdown will come on this side of the ball. These two haven't played yet this season, but last year in their only meeting they played a higher scoring contest in the Marriott Center. Santa Clara has the 46th quickest tempo and the 11th shortest offensive possessions. They have lost three straight and are 5-7 in conference. The Broncos offense needs to show up, but in their other games against the quicker WCC teams they lost 104-54 at Gonzaga and 91-77 at Pepperdine in 73 and 77 possession games. I think this one is an over on Thursday. 

Oral Roberts travels to Denver on Thursday night. These two played at ORU back at the start of the month with the Golden Eagles holding serve 86-77 at home in that one. It was a 74 possession game which should be expected considering both of these teams play with a solid tempo. Also, neither of them are very good on defense with Oral Roberts checking in 315th in two point defense and 274th in three point defense. On the road in Summit play, ORU has had games with scores of 96-79, 74-67, 87-70, 92-68, 91-80, 74-68 & 83-76. Denver has won just one conference game and it's because of a bad defense that is 346th against the 2pt basket. At home, they've allowed 66, 82, 80, 93 and 70 in conference play. This team wants to get up and down a little bit more and has some talent with Jace Townshend and Ade Murkey. I think we see at least 75 possessions in this game and lots of points. 

This total is a bit surprising with a Blue Hens team that is really efficient on offense. They are 17th in two point offense and 55th in three point offense. Delaware has scored less than 70 just four times in conference play and not since putting up only 68 at home against William and Mary. These two teams played in Boston back on 1/25 and it was a 76-74 game. That was with 66 possessions and UD hitting 80% of their two point shots. Both teams were smoking hot from inside the arc with Huskies checking in at 62.5%. Northeastern is 13-13, but they also have an efficient offense and an exploitable defense. NU is 26th in two point FG% and 20th in three point FG%. This team's given up 75, 74, 59, 76, 76, 72 and 45 in conference play. This one should be tight and I think plenty of points will be scored. 

** Also take Delaware +1 **

I don't quite understand this line as Iowa is a pretty strong team at home. They are the 6th best adjusted efficiency offense according to KenPom. The Hawkeyes are top 100 in both 2 and 3 pt percentages and feature arguably the best player in the country Luka Garza. Iowa's only loss at home came against DePaul way back in November. They've alternated wins and losses since the end of January, but the common thread are the wins at home.  In Big 10 the margins of victory there have been 18, 7, 5, 6, 7 and 24. The Buckeyes have gotten hot winning five of their last six, but they aren't quite the same team on the road. They do have wins over Michigan and Northwestern away from home, but also lost by double digits at Maryland, Indiana, Penn State and Wisconsin. I think there's value with the home team here.

The shine has come off Hampton overs as of late, but they return home to host a Gardner-Webb team that they will face twice in a four day span. The Pirates offense is a little cold right now, but the defense continues to be awful. They've given up 70 points or more in every contest during conference play. Jermaine Marrow continues to be huge for his team and he'll play a lot better at home. In conference play the Pirates have had home scores of 92-85, 83-80, 116-95, 83-74, 87-81 and 80-70. The Runnin Bulldogs don't really do that with a tempo in the 270s. They have a mediocre offense although during this current win streak they've put up 74, 86 and 88 points. On the road they've shown some competency and should be feeling good after a win over Winthrop. I think these two teams should light up the scoreboard on Thursday. 

Creighton overs have been very good to me. One of those came way back on New Year's Day when Creighton beat Marquette 92-75 at home. The Jays shot almost 56% from two point land and made nine threes. Marquette got 18 points from Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey and Markus Howard in the loss. Creighton is shooting over 38% from long range in conference play. They've not been as sharp on the road offensively, but still has scored 87 at Seton Hall, 76 at Nova and 83 at DePaul. Marquette is 17-7, 7-5 in the Big East, but they've won three of their last four. This team has played some higher scoring games at home with wins of 76-72 over DePaul, 82-68 over St. John's and 85-65 over Xavier. I think this one should see plenty of points in both directions. 

** Small lean to the 1H over as well **

Buffalo is one of the quickest teams in the country especially at home where they push the pace. The Bulls lost at Ball State 88-68 already this season. That's impressive because Ball State rarely scores that much and usually won't allow that many possessions to occur. UB did play a lower scoring game against CMU at home on Friday February 7th, but that was a huge shock. In other home contests, they lost 78-77 to Bowling Green, and beat slower paced WMU 90-79. They'll probably get this thing to 70+ possessions which gives us a chance with this lower total. On the road Ball State has played some quicker games. They had a 78 possession affair at CMU losing 71-66. Ball State has played five 70+ possession games in the MAC. I think they can make things interesting and this one could go over the total.  

** SMALL lean also to Ball State +4.5 **

Overs in Denver games continue to be a fantastic play especially on the road. The Pios are allowing teams to shoot over 55% from two point land which is 341st in the nation. They've given up 90, 86, 82, 78, 86 and 80 away from home in conference play. Denver actually has a semi-decent offense led by Ade Murkey as well. They've scored 70 or more nine times in Summit League play. These two played in Denver back on January 18th with the Pios winning 91-76. The Mavericks have lost four straight and are another awful defense. They are 315th against the three pointer and 224th against the two. Omaha's home games in conference have had scores of 86-78, 81-80, 75-71, 87-82, 74-67 and 81-78. They play a little bit slower than average. Give me the over though as this conference features a ton of scoring. 

UVA is the play here and I don't exactly get this line. When does UNC stop getting any respect as they sit at 10-14 on the season. This team has lost four straight and nine of their last 11 with the last home victory coming back on December 30th by three over Yale. The Heels are shooting 46.1% from two point land and 28.7% from long range and UVA isn't exactly the best team to break out against. Over this span, UNC has already lost to GT, Pittsburgh, Clemson and BC at home. Their defense hasn't been terrible, but I just don't know how they will score. The Wahoos have won four of their last five and are playing their usual incredible defense. Teams are shooting 41.7% from two and 29.2% from three point land. UVA has been an underdog just seven times the last three seasons going 4-2-1 ATS. I just think I have to go with the better coach and the better system even though it's on the road.

Creighton is 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency as they host a DePaul team they beat 83-68 on the road just under a month ago. The Jays are 52nd in 2 pt%, 22nd in 3 pt% and 63rd in FT%. At home they've scored 94, 77, 78, 59 and 92 in conference. There's so many weapons on this team, but their defense needs a little bit of work. The Jays have allowed 82 points to their last two opponents St. John's and Seton Hall. This squad plays at an exactly average tempo. DePaul was 12-1, but now is 13-11 and it's because their offense has dried up a bit. Plus, their defense is rather porous at times. They've played some lower scoring games, but when the tempo gets pushed, they play along. Both Creighton and DePaul shot over 50% in their first meeting with DePaul making just three of 16 three point attempts. The two teams did make 40 FTs combined which is probably a factor, but I really want to keep betting overs in Creighton games.

This line doesn't make a ton of sense considering the news that Donnie Tillman is out for UNLV. Tillman is rather important to an offense that already struggles at times. He gets to the line quite a bit too which will be missed. The Runnin Rebels have lost five of their last six including three straight on the road. They fell by 14 at Nevada, by 18 at Colorado State and by 15 at Utah State. Their only wins away from home came against lowly Fresno in 2OT back in December and by nine in OT over Wyoming. New Mexico lost the first meeting in Las Vegas 99-78 but the Lobos were still banged up at the time. Now they are a lot healthier with Vance Jackson back and JaQuan Lyle healthier as well. New Mexico has lost seven of their last 11, but only one of those came at home against San Diego State. They have an efficient offense and a defense that has been leaky at times. I think the Lobos win this game and get revenge after the 21 point road loss.

Eastern Kentucky has won nine of their last 11 entering this one against Austin Peay this afternoon. EKU is playing with an extremely quick pace and is scoring points in buckets. They've put up 70 or more in eight straight and they have to because the defense isn't great. During this recent win stretch, they won road contests at Tennessee St, Jax State, Tennessee Tech, EIU and Morehead State. Austin Peay has to be flying high right now after a close home win over Murray State. They also beat Belmont there so this is a team that could win the OVC title. Still, their defense is very leaky and is 343rd against three point shooting. They've been prone to some clunkers at home with only a four point win over EIU there. I'm playing the fact that this is a lot of points for a competent road team who may be getting an unfocused Peay.

** Small lean to Over 144 in Belmont/Jacksonville State **

Furman has won six straight and is playing Chattanooga who they beat 73-66 on the road back on January 8th. The Paladins are the third best team from the two point area shooting almost 58%. They've also struggled terribly defending two point baskets checking in 315th in the land. Furman has scored 75 or more in five of their last six with four of the opponents over that span scoring 70 or more themselves. Chattanooga is 16-10 and they are pretty bad against the two as well allowing opponents to shoot 52.5% from that area. The Mocs offense has scored 80 or more in two straight and four of their last seven. The team shoots the three pretty well and has gotten into some high scoring games away from home. Give me the over here as I think Furman is in really good form.

Delaware is the hottest team in the CAA as they've reeled off seven straight victories since losing to these Tribe 77-68 at home back on January 16th. They are really efficient on offense checking in 14th in 2 pt offense, 58th in 3 pt offense and 42nd in FT percentage. They've poured in 80 or more in four straight games, but it's the defense that has been a problem giving up over 70 in all of their victories over this span. William and Mary's defense is rather leaky and their offense is very capable of exploding. They put up 77 against Drexel at home after a recent skid of scoring 65 or less. Nathan Knight and Andy Van Vliet are a very capable duo inside that the Blue Hens could struggle with. I think this one should go over the total as I just don't think Vegas is respecting these two.

** Small Lean UNC Wilmington +14 as well **

I'm taking the Spiders in this big rivalry game on Saturday at the Robins Center. Richmond has won three straight since losing to the Rams in their building on 1/28. The Spiders have been clamping down on defense with a more potent offense taking shape now that Blake Francis is back. It's a sellout and there's a juice surrounding this team that should bring forth a great atmosphere. They are 40th in 2 point shooting, 53rd in 3 point shooting and 9th in FT shooting. Now I don't believe this team went from being one of the worst FT shooting squads around to one of the best, but at least they are improving. My worry is that their depth isn't great like VCU's is. The Rams may or may not have Marcus Evans for this one and that may or may not be a good thing. I'm not the biggest Evans guy and think getting more Bones Hyland and Malik Crowfield is a good thing. VCU has laid some road eggs falling by 14 at Dayton and by 12 at Rhode Island. This is a poor offensive team when they are not forcing turnovers and UR has done a good job with that as a lot of theirs will be at least deadball turnovers that don't lead to fast break points. I just think Richmond is the play here. The line would be bigger if not for the Mason loss last time out for VCU. I'd like to think there's no look-ahead here in a rivalry, but Dayton comes to town on Tuesday for the Rams. Give me the home team here.

It's been a miserable season for St. Joe's who has lost six straight and most likely will be without Ryan Daly for this one. Daly puts up 32.3% of the team's shots and has the ball on 31.9% of the team's possessions. He is their best scorer and their absolute leader. Not only that, but the team had plane trouble and left late Friday for Rhode Island so who knows how they'll be with such an early game. In conference play this team has lost by 32 at Richmond, by 16 at GW, by 15 at UMass and by 17 at La Salle. They played in Philly back on January 15th and Rhody won 71-61. Daly was the Hawks only double digit scorer in that one. The Rams are coming off a 14 point loss at Dayton and should be rather feisty on Saturday. They have six double digit victories in conference play and have three of the better players in the conference. There is no look-ahead with their next game in a week. I'd take the first half normally, but with it being a noon game, I'm guessing there's a chance for a slow start. Give me URI in an easy win. 

This is a rematch of a wild triple overtime game back on January 11th when Winthrop won 99-95 at home. The game ended at 69-69 before the overtimes began so it was around this current number before the chaos. Both teams shot over 50% from two point land and made a combined 44 free throws. Winthrop plays at a really quick pace with a solid offense and a defense that also allows opponents to shoot over 50% from two point land. The Eagles are coming off their first conference loss of the season falling 81-77 to Radford. On the road, this team has scored 70 or more in every in-conference game except one at Radford. Gardner-Webb plays at a slower pace, but their offense is smoking hot right now scoring 86 vs. High Point, 88 at USC Upstate and 81 at home against Longwood. They are shooting 36.5% from long range. I think this number is just a bit too low and there should be plenty of points scored. 

Samford is on a 10 game losing streak and one can point to their defense as a reason why. They allowed 90 points or more five times during this stretch including giving up 101 to Furman in a 101-78 loss to the Paladins. The one concern is that Furman made 17 three's in the first meeting which I can't expect again, but they should get to at least 80 in this one. This team is 336th in two point defense and 308th in three point defense. They play at a quicker pace and are usually good for 70+ possessions in a game. Furman is not as quick, but they are extremely efficient on offense. They are #2 in two point field goal percentage checking in at 57.9% as a team. They also struggle against the two themselves on defense checking in at 320th. The Paladins have scored 70 or more nine times in conference including each of their last five. There's not really any sort of look-ahead here so I think we get a focused effort from the better team. 

NIU is one of the hottest teams in the MAC as they've won six straight including two victories over Kent State as well as a win at Toledo. This team has already picked up victories away from home against Buffalo as well. Eugene German is one of the best players in the conference and this team plays stifling defense. They've held seven straight opponents to less than 70 and that's what will keep them in this game. Ball State has lost three of their last five as they've struggled offensively. They shoot just 67.1% from the free throw line and have failed to crack the 70 point mark in five straight. NIU won at Ball State last year and has covered in four of their last five in this series. In a game that won't see a ton of points, I'll take the underdog. 

This line could be a trap, but I think I'm going to bite and play it. These two teams played back in early January with the Bucs winning 89-75 in a game that saw almost 80 points in the first half. Upstate shot 50% from long range and had 19 turnovers while CSU got 25 from Phlandrous Fleming while shooting over 60% from two. The Bucs are 12-12, 6-6 in conference and have struggled defensively. They are 331st in two point defense and have allowed 70 or more in three straight road games. The offense is very hot or cold so that's a concern, but they are coming off an 85 point effort vs. Hampton. The Spartans are 10-15 and are 318th against two point field goals defensively. They've given up 70 or more in four straight, but the offense has played better at home. Basically it's two mediocre offenses against two bad defenses. I'll take a chance that the offenses show up and go with the over. 

Butler and Marquette played a wild game just a few weeks ago as the Bulldogs held serve at home 89-85 in overtime. It was a game that was 39-35 at halftime and that's with both teams shooting the ball just okay. Markus Howard had 26 on 8-of-27 shooting while Kamar Baldwin was 10-of-25 with 31 points. Marquette wants to push the pace and has scored 76, 82, 85, 80 and 71 at home during conference play. Their defense has been poor at times which will help here. Butler's team on the road has given up 76 at Villanova and 79 at DePaul. Their offense is ridiculously efficient though so that will help. It should be a close back and forth affair so give me the game over here. 

Oakland is 8-16 on the season and has already lost at home to Wright State 96-69. The Grizzlies are playing one of the slowest tempos in the country, but they've still been dragged into higher scoring games on the road. They lost 73-70 at Northern Kentucky after a 77-64 win at Detroit. The question will be if they can produce enough offense to help the total. Wright State's offense is smoking hot scoring 98, 89, 65 and 95 in their last four games. They've scored 75 or more in every single home game this season as they play with a quicker pace and a better offense. The defense can be hot and cold, but I don't need them to be completely lock down if WSU wants to put up 90. Give me the over here as I just think the Raiders should be able to do whatever they want. 

I love playing Denver overs and this is another case where we will do so. The Pios have lost four straight and 14 of their last 15 as the defense continues to struggle. They are allowing opponents to shoot almost 56% from two point land and have allowed 75 or more in nine straight games. They play at the 49th quickest pace so there should be plenty of possessions in this one. Vegas thinks Denver is going to win at home and I just don't think they can do so in a lower scoring game. The Dons are playing at a slower pace, but have an equally awful defense from up close and long range. On the road this team allowed 75 to Omaha, 83 to South Dakota, 69 to Western Illinois and 83 to North Dakota. This figures to be a close game and I think it'll fly over the total.

Hampton is smoking hot when it comes to the overs. Ever since the flip of the calendar and the return of Jermaine Marrow, they've been playing high scoring games. The key is also that the Pirates are doing it against slower paced teams as well. They managed to get into high scoring affairs with Radford and High Point. These two teams played back on January 4th and Hampton won 92-85 in a 74 possession game. They are getting to the free throw line often and play pretty much no defense. Hampton is 326th against the three and 299th against the two. On the road they've given up 88, 83, 86 and 83 in conference. The Bucs play at a really slow pace, but they've also struggled on defense as they sit 333rd against two pointers. Charleston Southern doesn't necessarily want to play a quicker game, but over this current three game losing streak they gave up 71 to Longwood, 77 to Radford and 77 to Winthrop. I see plenty of points in this one.

I'll back the defending champions in this spot even though they are the only power five school who has not topped 65 points on offense. The Wahoos have won three straight and four of their last five and feature one of the best defenses in the country. On the road they lost by four at Florida State and have wins at GT and Wake already. They will make this a knockdown battle which Louisville has struggled in sometimes. The Cardinals are a good shooting team and play good defense of their own, but they've also struggled with the Wahoos style of defense. This team has not necessarily always played clean at home with just a four point win over GT there. If the Hoos can find Ryan McMahon, that would be big on defense as he's the long range shooter. I think this is just too many points in what should be a lower scoring game. 

Dayton's been blasting teams at home this season so I'm definitely nervous about getting in front of that train right now. The Flyers are shooting 62.7% from two point land. They've won all of their conference home games by double digits but they nearly lost at St. Louis. If you look at the box score in that one, SLU dominated the offensive glass, but they missed 17 FTs which will hurt them considering they are one of the worst from the free throw line. The Billikens are coming off a 14 point home loss to Duquesne. They play tough defense and already have several road wins in conference. There's also the small chance that Dayton is looking ahead to Rhode Island, but I don't think that'll be the case. Give me the big dog in this one.

I think we're getting the home dog for a very good price here on Saturday. GW is coming off getting blasted at Richmond and St. Bonaventure, but that came after the 4OT outright win at home against Davidson. The Colonials have played really well at home with their last couple of losses there being by five against Duquesne and St. Bonaventure. The big question is their injury issues with Armel Potter having been out as of late. He's the team's leading scorer. Rhode Island is smoking hot having won nine straight games, but the bigger carrot is ahead of them with the first of two meetings against Dayton up next. Yes, it's on the road, but still, the Rams hope to make the tourney and potentially hand the Flyers their first conference loss. This team has had their flaky efforts losing by 10 at Brown and then by eight at home against Richmond. I think this is a juicy look-ahead spot for the road team. 

Boston College is 2-2 in their last four, but one of those wins came against their opponent on Saturday. The Eagles beat the Hokies 61-56 in a game that started Tech's decline. Since then, the Eagles lost by 17 at home to Louisville, beat UNC on the road and hung tough with Duke in an ugly loss. This team has gotten blasted on the road time and time again this season, but they've also been banged up as a team. The Hokies play very good defense, but they've lost four straight and five of their last six with two of those coming at home and the win being by two over a bad UNC team in double overtime. They shoot it well from long range, but one has to wonder if they've hit some sort of freshman wall. I think there's some value here with the road team.

The Eagles are 16-7 this season and have won 12 straight games as they host Campbell. One of those wins came over the Camels at their place 87-72 back on January 4th. Winthrop shot 62% from two and 50% from three in that one while Campbell, a team who wants to play slower, shot almost 60% from two point range. At home Winthrop has put up 104, 72, 79, 99 and 91 in conference. They are shooting over 50% from two point range and have had a terrible time with fouling too much. The Camels are 11-11 on the year and are also really good at shooting from two point range. They ideally want a slower pace, but their last few away scores have been 91-74, 83-74 and 85-79 in games that saw 66 possessions or more. I think this one should go over the total with Winthrop setting up the pace. 

Mercer is 12-11 on the year, but they've won six straight games. These two played in Macon, Georgia back on December 20th with the home team losing 64-62. The Bears began the year playing really fast, but they've cooled the tempo off since then. During this win streak they've scored 70 or more in six of their last seven. The defense has improved as well although some of that was because of the opponents they were playing. Furman's offense is very efficient shooting 57.3% from two point land which is good for 43rd in the nation. Furman has scored 74, 101, 83, 73 and 65 at home in conference. They are not the most efficient on defense allowing teams to shoot just over 55% from two point land themselves. I feel like this one should see plenty of points on Wednesday. 

Jeremy Ballard is doing really good things with FIU as they sit at 15-8 entering today's matchup with Florida Atlantic. It's a home and home with the return game being on Saturday at FAU. This is a Panthers team that plays with a ridiculously fast pace and has a pretty efficient offense. They've lost just once at home to Marshall a week or two ago 84-74. The other thing this team does really well is defend the three pointer as they check in 11th there on KenPom. The one issue they have is defending the defensive glass. FAU is 14-9 on the year and makes people work on offense. They have just two road wins at Mercer and Rice this season and a close two point loss at Florida Gulf Coast and Charlotte. They don't do anything particularly well, but have won their last two. I think there's some value with the home team here.

The Razorbacks are the 58th quickest team tempo-wise, but they are not the best when it comes to crashing the boards. The Hogs shoot over 53% from two point land and are the number one three point defense in college basketball. The offense has scored 70 or more in four straight, but the defense has also allowed that much in three contests over that span. Auburn crashes the boards hard and plays at a slightly above average tempo. They are shooting almost 54% from two point land, but are pretty bad from three. One has to wonder how much the UK game took out of them as they won 75-66 in a big game at home. This team has had it's issues on the road losing two of their last three with the win coming by one in 2OT at Ole Miss. The Tigers also have a 1 point win at South Alabama and a 12 point victory at Mississippi State. I think this one should see plenty of points on Tuesday.