My 10* SB 56 Super Pick is on the LA Rams at 6:30 ET.

The Super Bowl is back in the Los Angeles mark for the EIGHTH time, as only Miami (11) and New Orleans (10) have hosted more. Sunday's game will be played at SoFi Stadium (home to the Rams), as for the SECOND consecutive year a team has played host to a Super Bowl playing in its home stadium (the Bucs hosted SB 55 last year at Raymond James). No team had hosted a Super Bowl in its home stadium for the first 54 Super Bowls but it's now happened in back-to-back seasons. Could the Cards make it three years in a row by hosting next year's Super Bowl in Glendale, Az? Seems like a stretch but how many had the Bengals, coming off a 4-11-1 year and having last won a playoff game in the 1990 season, reaching this year's Super Bowl? Or for that matter, how many had the Rams as the NFC favorite to be here, led by Matthew Stafford and his 0-3 career record in the postseason during his 12 years with the Lions? Anyway, it's the Bengals and Rams in Super Bowl 56, playing in the same city as the first-ever Super Bowl. That game was played in the LA Coliseum, as Lombardi's Packers beat Hank Stram's Chief 35-10. The game was played on Jan 15, 1967 (1966 season) with the official merger not coming until the start of the 1970 season. Those were the days!

How the teams made the postseason: The Bengals went just 4-11-1 in Joe Burrow's rookie season but their 10-7 record in 2021 was good enough to win the AFC Central for the first time since 2015 (it didn't hurt that the Ravens ended the season on a SIX-game losing streak!). Burrow had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs), while RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs), as well as TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs) gave Burrow an excellent receiving corps. Perhaps overlooked, was that the Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons. As for the Rams, they opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth (at best) and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games (Cards would finish 2-4) and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers, were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. Stafford struggled some down the stretch but had an excellent season, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. His QB rating of 102.9 was the best of his career in which he played a full season, The LA running game suffered a ton of injuries but WR Cooper Kupp had 145 receptions for 1,947 receiving yards. Both rank second in single-season NFL history to Michael Thomas' 149 catches and to Calvin Johnson's 1,964 receiving yards, respectively. He also led the NFL with 16 TD receptions. The Rams have an excellent defense but for most of the season, the D was considered underachievers.

The Playoffs: Burrow has been good (not great), throwing for 842 yards, completing 68.8% with 4 TDs and 2 INTs. He has a terrific receiving corps, with Chase leading the way with 20 catches in the three wins. However, Cincy's running game has disappeared, averaging just 88.0 YPG on 3.8 YPC. The Cincy defense has been OUTSTANDING, allowing just 35 points to the Raiders and Titans (17.5 per) in the team's first two playoff wins. Then after allowing the Chiefs to score 21 points on their first three possessions in the AFC championship game, the Bengals D shut down Patrick Patrick and company, as KC had just 83 yards and two interceptions during seven second-half possessions). KC's only points came on a FG (0:00), which sent the game to OT. As for Stafford, after throwing SEVEN interceptions in his final three regular season games (104 attempts), he's completed 72.% of his passes in three playoff wins, throwing for 905 yards with six TDs and just ONE interception (in 100 attempts!). Like Burrow, he's gotten little or no help from LA's running game (94.3 YPG on 2.9 YPC) but Kupp (25 catches / 15.4 YPC / 4 TDs) has been spectacular and OBJ (19 catches) is playing as if he cares. The LA defense has turned it up a notch, dominating the Cards (holding them to 11 points on 183 yards), while holding the 49ers to 17 points (282 yards) in the NFC championship game. The only 'blip on the radar' was allowing Brady and the Bucs to overcome a 27-3 deficit to tie the game at 27-all, before LA won on a late FG.

The BIG game: Not only will neither No. 1 seed be represented in this game, but the to-3 three seeds in both conferences are out, leaving us with two No. 4 seeds. By the numbers, Super Bowl underdogs are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 years and since 1999, Super Bowl underdogs of plus 3.5 or higher are 10-2 ATS, including a perfect 6-0 the last six times. Does that mean Cincy plus the points? I say NO! I love Burrow but I believe this is "Stafford's time" and he's been terrific this postseason (see above). While I've chronicled Cincy's defensive improvement, the LA defense has been dominating all postseason, save that stretch when it coughed up a 27-3 lead from the late-third quarter to when the Bucs tied it at 27-all with 42 seconds left. However, the Rams, not the Bengals own defensive superstars like Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey. Then there is the Zac Taylor vs Sean McVay coaching matchup. Taylor owned just a 6-25-1 mark his first two seasons (prior to this year's run), while McVay is now in a Super Bowl for the SECOND time in four years (career record in the regular season is 55-26, .679). Sure, the atmosphere of a Super Bowl mitigates the home field edge somewhat but I believe it's still a significant edge for the Rams (seemed to work OK for the Bucs last year). Of course, Stafford is no Tom Brady (no one is) but for one game, he can be "Just like Tom!" I say Sunday is that game!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' 38-Club Play is on the KC Chiefs at 3:00 ET.

The just-completed Divisional Round is being hailed as the NFL's "Greatest Postseason Weekend of All-Time" and you won't get an argument from me. Everyone has either watched, seen the highlights of or read the countless recaps of the four games, so I'll move on. The 2021 NFL season is down to its version of a 'Final Four, on January 30th, or Championship Sunday, if you prefer. The Cincinnati Bengals entered the postseason without a playoff win in 31 years but here in January, have won TWO playoff games in a seven-day span! After a 19-16 win over the Titans (on a last-second FG), the Bengals have advanced to the AFC Championship for the 1st time since the 1988 season, the same year in which they lost the 'John Candy Super Bowl' to the SF 49ers of Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Ronnie Lott. Awaiting them at Arrowhead Stadium will be the KC Chiefs, who edged the Buffalo Bills 42-36 in what's being called 'the greatest game' in NFL history! I'm sure that statement could be debated, but one would have to come up with quite an argument. The Chiefs, who played in Super I and then won Super Bowl IV, the last played prior to the 1970 merger, now become the first team in NFL history to host a conference championship in FOUR consecutive seasons.

The Bengals went just 4-11-1 in Joe Burrow's rookie season but their 10-7 record in 2021 was good enough to win the AFC Central for the first time since 2015 (it didn't hurt that the Ravens ended the season on a SIX-game losing streak!). Burrow had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs), while RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs), as well as TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs) gave Burrow an excellent receiving corps. Perhaps overlooked, was that the Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons.

Burrow has thrown just two TDs in the two playoff wins but has completed 73.2% with only one INT in 73 attempts. WR Chase (14 catches) does not have a TD catch but is sure making his presence known, while TE Uzomah has 13 receptions and one TD. RB Mixon has been held to just 102 yards rushing (3.3 YPC) but does have 10 catches. An area of concern has to be that Cincy's running game has averaged only 74.0 YPG (3.4 YPC) through two playoff games, after averaging 102.5 YPG on the season. However, it's excellent news that the Cincy defense has allowed just 35 points to the Raiders and Titans (17.5 per).

The Chiefs entered the current season off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (1-1) and having won FIVE consecutive AFC West titles. However, after just SEVEN games, the Chiefs were a sub-.500 team at 3-4! The 'cry' went out, "What's wrong with the Chiefs and in particular, Patrick Mahomes?" KC answered that question emphatically, going 9-1 to finish the regular season and win the AFC West for the SIXTH straight season at 12-5. However, that ONE loss (34-31 at Cincy on a last-second FG), cost KC the No. 1 seed. Tennessee (also 12-5) won the tiebreaker over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage (Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3 in Tennessee back in Week 7!). Mahomes had an 'average' season (for him), completing 66.3 % for 4,839 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs (ho hum!). RBs Williams (558 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 TDs) and Edwards-Helaire (517 yards on 4.3 YPC with 4 TDs) have missed time all season and McKinnon, who ran for just 62 yards all season, has been KC's 'featured' RB in the postseason (if you pardon the pun). The Chiefs own the best WR-TE duo in the NFL with Hill (111 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (92 catches / 9 TDs) plus have depth at WR in Hardeman (59 catches) and Pringle (42 catches / 5 TDs). The defense ended the regular season allowing 368.9 YPG, ranking 27th but the good news was that KC allowed a more modest 21.4 PPG, which ranked 8th-best (more in a bit).

Mahomes has been terrific in two playoff victories, leading KC to 42 points against both the Steelers and the Bills. He's completed 75.9% for 782 yards with 8 TDs and just one INT. He also ran for 98 yards (on just 10 attempts) plus another TD. Edwards-Helaire returned vs Buffalo and ran for 60 yards on just seven carries (8.6 YPC), as the Chiefs have run for 144.0 YPG in two playoff games, averaging 5.9 YPC. Hill has 16 catches (2 TDs) and Kelce 13 catches and two TDs (including the game-winner in OT vs Buffalo). I noted the KC defense earlier and will note here that in the team's 9-1 finish to the regular season, the unit allowed just 15.8 PPG.

KC enters this game on an 11-1 run, with the team's only loss coming 34-31 at Cincy (Week 17) on a last-second FG. I'm not sure at all that the win over KC was a "good thing" for the Bengals. I've noted Cincy's greatly improved defense but now that stop unit now goes from facing Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill, to Patrick Mahomes. He's been at his best the last two weeks, leading KC to 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense, followed by producing 42 points and 552 yards in overtime against the Bills, who owned a defense that led the NFL in both points allowed (17.0) and total yards (272.8) during the regular season.

Cincy won the franchise's first playoff game in 31 years in the wild card round but Cincy's 19-16 win at Tennessee last weekend, marked the franchise's FIRST-ever postseason road win! I bought up Mahomes' numbers in his career home playoff games in my analysis last Sunday (LEGEND Play win on KC over Buff) and will update and remind all again here. Mahomes is 7-1 in home playoff games, completing 68.9% for an average of 318.8 YPG through the air with 23 TD passes and just ONE interception in 293 attempts! This is NOT the time or place for the Bengals to earn the franchise's second all-time road playoff win. In fact, I don't see the Bengals even coming close. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Bills and Chiefs met in last year's AFC championship game, with KC winning at home. The two teams opened the 2021 season as favorites to meet again in this season's title game and while the Bills and Chiefs are meeting in the 2021 postseason (again in Kansas City), it's ONE week sooner than anticipated. However, at one point during the recently completed regular season a Buff/KC Part 2 was NOT looking likely.

Buffalo was shocked in Week 1 at home by the Steelers (lost 23-16) and while the Bills rebounded quickly with FOUR straight wins, they would lose FIVE of their next eight to fall to 7-6, falling TWO games behind the 9-4 Pats. However, the Bills ended the season with FOUR straight wins (including a 33-21 victory in New England) to finish 11-6, while the Pats' lost THREE of four. The 11-6 Bills won the AFC East, with the Pats earning a wild card berth. The Bills hosted the Pats in the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend and I'm pretty sure you KNOW how that turned out (more later, in case you missed it). 

The Chiefs entered the current season off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (1-1) and having won FIVE consecutive AFC West titles. However, after just SEVEN games, the Chiefs were a sub-.500 team at 3-4! The 'cry' went out, "What's wrong with the Chiefs and in particular, Patrick Mahomes?" KC answered that question emphatically, going 9-1 to finish the regular season 12-5 and win the AFC West for the SIXTH straight season. However, that ONE loss (34-31 at Cincy on a last-second FG), cost KC the No. 1 seed. Tennessee (also 12-5) won the tiebreaker over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage (Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3 in Tennessee back in Week 7!). Again, in case you were asleep, the Chiefs beat the Steeklers 42-21 last weekend in a wild card game.

Buffalo's Josh Allen (63.3% for 4,407 yards with 36 TDs and 15 INTs / 763 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC with 6 TDs) had a terrific season (again!) He then set a team playoff record with five TD passes in a 47-17 DESTRUCTION of the division-rival Patriots in a wild-card playoff game. Buffalo became the NFL's first team in the Super Bowl era to score on each of its seven possessions that didn't end with a kneel down. Allen completed 21 of 25 for 308 yards without an INT (QB rating of 157.8!), while adding 66 rushing yards. RB Singletary (870 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) ran for 81 yards and two TDs, while TE Knox (49 catches / 9 TDs) had two TD receptions. Allen has a terrific group of WRs, led by Diggs (103 catches / 10 TDs) plus Beasley (82 catches), Sanders (42 / 14.9 / 4 TDs) and Davis (35 / 15.7 / 6 TDs). Buffalo's offense ranked 3rd in scoring (28.4 PPG) but its defense was No. in the NFL in points allowed (17.0) and yards allowed (272.8). That's a pretty sweet 'daily double.'

Mahomes had an 'average' season (for him), completing 66.3 % for 4,839 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs (ho hum!). He then completed 30 of 39 for 404 yards with five TD passes and one iNT in the rout of Pittsburgh. RBs Williams (558 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 TDs) and Edwards-Helaire (517 yards on 4.3 YPC with 4 TDs) have missed time all season. Both are questionable here but McKinnon, who ran for just 62 yards all season, ran 12 times for 61 yards (5.1 YPC) vs Pittsburgh. The Chiefs own the best WR-TE duo in the NFL with Hill (111 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (92 catches / 9 TDs) plus have depth at WR in Hardeman (59 catches) and Pringle (42 catches / 5 TDs). The KC offense has averaged 28.2 PPG (4th) but the defense has allowed 368.9 YPG, ranking 27th. The good news is that KC is allowing a more modest 21.4 PPG, which ranks 8th-best.

The point spread here indicates that Buffalo would be a favorite on a neutral field and maybe that's right, as the Bills crushed the Chiefs 38-10 at KC back in Week 5. However, doesn't that give KC even more incentive here? Allen was great vs the Pats but note that in last year's AFC title game, Allen was badly outplayed by Mahomes. Allen threw 48 times (28 completions for 287 yards with two TDs and one INT (QB rating of 80.8). Meanwhile, Mahomes was 29 of 38 for 325 yards with three Tds and zero INTs for a 127.6 QB rating. Mahomes is 7-2 as a starter in the playoffs, losing only to Tom Brady (against the Pats in the 2018 AFC championship game) and in last year's Super Bowl vs the Bucs. Allen has become a star but he's NO Brady.

My closing note is this. In SEVEN home playoff games (6-1 / loss to Brady and the Pats), Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his passes, while averaging 310.3 YPG passing. He's thrown 20 TDs passes in those seven, against just ONE interception in 249 attempts. KC "all the way!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Round O/U Game of the Year is on LAR/TB Under at 3:30 ET.

The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. That set the stage for the Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. It was a "no-contest," as the Rams were up 28-0 in the late third quarter on their way to a 34-11 (BTW...The Rams were my 10* Wild Card GOY pick!). Stafford picked up his first career playoff win (was 0-3 with the Lions), throwing a modest 17 times, completing 13 for 202 yards with two TDs and no INTs. RBs Michel (58 yards) and Akers (55) allowed the Rams to run for 140 yards, 41 yards more than the team's 99.0 YPG average on the season. The Rams defense, which somewhat underachieved this season, held the Cards to just 183 total yards.

The Rams will travel to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday to face the defending champions Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs won the Super Bowl last season in Tom Brady's first year with the team. They took "the wild card route" last year but this season won the NFC South for the first time since 2007 with a 13-4 record. The ageless Brady led the NFL in passing yards, TDs, attempts and completions this season (threw for 5,316 yards with 43 TDs and just 12 INTs), as the Bucs averaged 30.1 PPG (2nd), while the Tampa Bay defense held opponents to 20.8 PPG (5th). Tampa Bay's wild card win last weekend was a 'walk in the park,' as the Bucs ran 25 plays to Philadelphia's eight in the first quarter, outgaining the Eagles 137 yards to 17 and compiling an 11-1 edge in first downs. The Bucs led 31-0 and won 31-15. Brady was 29 of 37 for 271 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. The victory gives him a 35-11 postseason record, including 21-4 in home games.

With the Rams showing a running game last weekend, Stafford could/should be able to attack the Tampa Bay defense with a more balanced offense, while the Bucs could really use Fournette to be able to play, after he missed last week with a hamstring injury (he's listed as probable). Vaugh and Bernard combined for 97 yards rushing vs the Eagles (each ran for a TD) plus combined for seven catches, but Fournette ran for 812 yards (4.5 YPC / 8 TDs) and caught 69 passes with two TDs this regular season. The Rams went 7-2 SU away from home this season, while the Bucs have gone 8-1 SU at home. The Rams head into Tampa looking for their EIGHTH win in NINE tries against the Bucs (dating back to 2012) but I don't believe that's particularly relevant, now the Brady is Tampa Bay's QB. That said, I will note that the Rams beat the Bucs 34-24 back in Week 3 in LA.

However, what I do see as relevant is that both "very talented" defenses were superb last weekend. The Rams held the Cards to 183 total yards (team was up 28-0) and the Bucs were up 31-0 over the Eagles, before allowing two 'garbage' TDs in the 4th quarter (Eagles had just 14 FDs and 244 total yards, most coming in those two late TD drives). A win here for Stafford over Brady would be HUGE for him but with the Bucs playing with revenge, it's hard for me to go against Tampa Bay. However, I have NO problem betting on this contest to go U-N-D-E-R. That's the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 4:30 ET.

Zac Taylor arrived in Cincinnati for the 2019 season and the Bengals struggled to a 2-14 finish. Cincy then drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft but Burrow was lost in the 10th game of the season, as the Bengals would only slightly improve by going 4-11-1. However, the Bengals went 10-7 in 2021 and won the AFC North for the first time since 2015. Then last Saturday, Joe Burrow led his team to its first playoff victory in 31 years, 26-19 over Las Vegas in an AFC wild-card game. Burrow (24 of 34 with 244 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs for a QB rating of 110.4) led an efficient offense that scored on SIX drives. PK Evan McPherson became the first rookie to make four FGs without a miss in a postseason debut, and Germaine Pratt sealed it with a fourth-down interception in the dying seconds. It was a victory three decades in the making for the Bengals (last playoff win came back in 1990!) After going from worst to first in the AFC North with a generally young roster, the Bengals ended that embarrassingly long postseason drought that included EIGHT consecutive defeats.

Mike Vrabel took over in Nashville  in 2018 and after back-to-back 9-7 seasons, his Titans have now won the AFC South in two consecutive years, going 11-5 in 2020 and 12-5 here in 2021. Note, Tennessee's wild card team of 2019, made it all the way to the AFC championship game (1st time in 17 years!), before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions Chiefs. This year's team not only won the AFC South but also earned the AFC's overall No. 1 seed, giving them last weekend off.

Burrow has had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs. RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase (also from LSU) caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus is joined by fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs) plus TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs). The Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons.

The Titans were 6-2 when RB Derrick Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill (67.2% / 3,734 yards / 21-14 ratio) has had to shoulder more of the load, and he was often not up to the challenge. However, at 8-4, the Titans would win FOUR other their last five, including THREE straight to end the regular season, clinching the No. 1 seed. Kudos to Tannehill, who in that three-game winning streak, completed 73.4% of his passes with a 7-0 TD/INT ratio). WR Brown 63 catches / 13.8 YPC / 5 TDs) is the team's best receiver but Westbrook-Ikhine (38 / 5 TDs) and the now-healthy Juliuo Jones (31 / 14.0 YPC) are reliable targets. The Tennessee defense is stout, allowing 20.8 PPG (6th) and ranks second in the league in rushing yards allowed (84.8).

Congrats to the Bengals but note they had just 308 total yards vs the Raiders and constantly settled for FGs. RB Mixon was held to 48 yards rushing on 2.8 YPC and the Tennessee rush D is a 'tough nut to crack' (see above). Henry could be back here and what a bonus that would be. However, I'm "all over" the Titans, either way. Consider the following. Both sides went 4-2 vs eventual playoff teams, but if we dig a little deeper, we see those records aren't equal. Both the Colts and Chargers were favored to win in Week 18, but they both lost. Tennessee would have been 6-2 against playoff teams if Tennessee and Los Angeles had won in the final week (and that's to go along with impressive victories over the Chiefs and Rams). If that scenario had played out, the Bengals would have been just 1-3 vs playoff destined teams. 

I noted the Tennessee D earlier but here's more. The Titans went from allowing 384 yards and 26.8 points a game during the first six weeks to only 300.3 yards and 17.5 points during the final 11 games, holding four of their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Tennessee went 7-2 SU at home and head coach Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU & ATS following a bye, beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points! Cincy is 'One & Done' this playoff season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 and through Week 13, stood at 10-2. However, the Cards would lose FOUR of their last five (lone exception was a 25-22 win at Dallas in Week 17 that clinched a playoff spot) to finish 11-6. That left them ONE game worse than the LA Rams, who captured the NFC West with a 12-5 record. The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle.

That sets the stage for Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. The Cardinals-Rams primetime showdown will be the third meeting between the teams, with the road team having won the previous two. The game will not only be Kyler Murray's playoff debut, but it will be the Cardinals' first appearance in the playoffs since 2015, when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round but were blown out by the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. As for the Rams, they are in the playoffs for the FOURTH time in Sean McVay's five seasons as head coach. This time around the Rams' QB is Matthew Stafford, who after 12 seasons with Detroit (where he put up monster numbers), will take the field looking to earn his first-ever playoff game (0-3 with the Lions!).

Murray completed 68.2% for 3,787 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. He missed three games during the regular season and hasn't been quite the same in his return, with just five TD passes in five games, without a rushing TD (had five in his first nine games!). He has really missed WR Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), who last played on Dec 13 (still not available). Kirk (77 catches / 5 TDs) has had an excellent season and veteran AJ Green (54 catches / 15.7 TYPC / 3 TDs) has shown flashes of his earlier brilliance, but only at times. Rookie WR Moore has added a 'quiet' 54 catches (just 8.1 YPC) and TE Ertz (acquired from the Eagles in a trade during the season), has added 56 catches in his 11 games with the Cards. RB Conner has been hurt down the stretch but returned in Week 18 (52 yards and a TD), giving him 752 yards rushing on the season (just 3.7 YPC) but an impressive 15 TDs. His RB partner is Edmonds, who has run for 592 yards on 5.1 YPC. The Arizona defense has played well, holding opponents to 21.5 PPG (12th).

Stafford has put up terrific numbers in his Detroit career but his move to LA was seen as a "get out of jail" opportunity. Stafford has put up excellent numbers again, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Cooper Kupp set a Rams-record 1,947 receiving yards, while he also pulled off the WR 'triple crown,' leading the NFL in receptions (145), TDs (16) and receiving yards. Veteran WR Woods (45 catches / 4 TDs) was lost during the regular season but Jefferson (a third-year pro) has 50 catches on 16.0 YPC with 5 TDs. TE Higbee has 61 catches with 5 TDs. RB Sony Michel has run for 845 yards (4.1 YPC / 4 TDs), averaging 99.4 YPG during the team's five-game winning streak and Cam Akers may be "ready to go!" The LA defense has not been as good as it's been in previous seasons but does check in allowing 21.9 PPG (1th). Not bad.

Here's the rub. The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road and while the Cardinals may have been the best team in the NFL up until late October. They’ve gone downhill losing (1-4 finish) and Kyler Murray hasn’t regained his early season dominance. He greatly misses the dynamic Hopkins, out for the season with a knee injury plus Murray’s running skills have diminished. Remember, this is Murray's first playoff start and he's had just two multiple touchdown games since Week 7. Stafford's 0-3 in the playoffs all time, but that was THEN and this is NOW. Stafford has thrown five TDs to one INT in two games against the Cardinals this year. It's "now or never" for the veteran. I'm laying the points and I'm also expecting an "A-effort" by Aaron Donald and the LA defense.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card O/U Game of the Year is on SF/Dal Under at 4:30 ET.

The San Francisco 49ers opened 2-0 but then lost four in a row (and five of six), to fall to 3-5. However, the 49ers closed on a 7-2 run, including winning 27-24 (in OT) at the LA Rams (trailed 17-0) to clinch the NFC's No. 6 seed at 10-7 in Week 18. The Dallas Cowboys lost their season opener 31-29 at Tampa (on a last second FG) but then won SIX in a row. Three losses in their next four followed but after a 36-33 OT loss to the Raiders in Dallas on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys would win four straight, lose 25-22 at home vs Arizona in Week 17 and rout the Eagles 51-26 in Philly in Week 18. Dallas finished 12-5, including an NFL-best 13-4 ATS. Dallas has Super Bowl 'dreams' but gets a tough matchup in San Francisco, which boasts a strong running game and a stronger run defense.

RB Mitchell has 963 yards on 4.7 YPFC with 5 TDs plus WR Deebo Samuel has run for 365 yards on 6.2 YPC with 5 TDs. The 49ers are averaging 127.4 YPG rushing (7th) and the running game has made it a little easier for the oft-criticized Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G should have answered his critics with excellent play down the stretch, finishing the season by completing 68.3% for 3,810 yards with 20 TDs and 12 TDs. WR Samuel was just named to the All-Pro team and it's well-deserved. His contributions to the running game have been HUGE, plus he's caught 77 passes with a 18.2 YPC average and 6 TDs. Fellow WR Aiyuk has 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Kittle caught 71 passes with 6 TDs, despite missing three games. The San Francisco D is allowing 21.5 PPG and is holding opponents to just 103.5 YPG on the ground (7th).

Dak Prescott is coming off a Week 18 game in which he completed 21 of 27 attempts for 295 yards and five TDs in just over three quarters of action. He's completing 68.8% for 4,449 yards with 37 TDs and 10 INTs, helping Dallas lead the NFL in scoring at 31.2 PPG. This year's team set a franchise record with 22 different players scoring at least one TD. The RB duo of Elliott (1,002 / 4.2 YPC / 10 TDs / 47 catches) and Pollard (719 yards on 5.5 YPC with 2 TDs) looks good on paper but I'll add a comment later. Lamb (79 catches / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs), Cooper (68 catches / 12.7 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wilson (45 catches / 6 TDs) plus TE Schultz (78 catches / 8 TDs) provide a plethora of options for Dak. The Dallas offense gets all the accolades but the team's defense is allowing 21.1 PPG (7th), while leading the NFL with 34 takeaways.

Zeke may have had a 1,000-yard season (no big deal with a 17-game schedule) and 10 rushing TDs but his 87 yards rushing in Week 18, was the first time he had more than 69 yards rushing in a game in his last 12 contests! Meanwhile, there might not be a more physical team than the 49ers and they match up well against Dallas because of their ground game and quick, short passing attack. Both teams play excellent defense and I see a much lower scoring game than the posted O/U line. Let's call it, "Under Downunder!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles opened the season 3-6 but then won SIX of seven to clinch a playoff spot, so their 51-26 loss at home to Dallas in Week 18 meant nothing. Coming off a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the 9-8 Eagles now set their sights on upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs on Sunday in Tampa. The 13-4 Bucs won the NFC South for the first time since 2007, behind their 'second-year' QB Tom Brady. Rumor has it that Brady previously played for the Patriots, achieving a certain level of success.

The two teams met back in Week 6 in Philly, as Brady passed for 297 yards and two TDs in a 28-22 Tampa Bay win. The Eagles intercepted him once but recorded no sacks and only three QB hits. The Philly D forced four, three-and-outs in that contest but Brady led two 75-yard TD drives to open the game and added two more long drives (72 and 79 yards) that ended in Leonard Fournette TDs runs. As for Tampa's defense, it held Philly QB Hurts to 115 yards on 12 of 26 passing in Week 6, with one TD and one INT, but he did score two second-half rushing TDs, earning the Eagles a 'backdoor cover!'

Hurts missed two games this season but entered having completed 61.3% for 3,144 yards with 16 TDs and 9 INTs. He's also the team's leading rusher, gaining 784 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs. The rreat news for Philly fans is that RB Sanders, who gained 754 yards on 5.5 YPC with 7 TDs (while missing FIVE games), said on Friday the he will "Absolutely" play on Sunday! The Eagles have the NFL's top rushing attack at 159.7 YPG. Heisman-winner Smith has 64 catches (14.3 YPC / 5 TDs), fellow WR Watkins has 43 catches (15.0 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Goedert checks in with 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Philly has excellent balance to its offense but will NOT have it easy vs a Tampa Bay defense allowing 20.8 PPG (5th) and one that ranks 3rd in allowing a modest 92.5 YPG on the ground.

Despite allowing 51 points in Week 18 to Dallas, the Philly D comes in allowing 22.6 PPG. However, one Tom Brady, has completed 67.5% for 5,316 yards (a career high), with 43 TD passes (tops in the NFL) with only 12 INTs. Fournette (812 yards on 4.8 YPC with 8 TDs) has taken over as the Bucs' featured back plus added 69 catches with two TDs. The bad news for Tampa Bay is that it won't have WRs Godwin (98 catches / 5 TDs) , who is injured, or Antonio Brown (fill in your own personal adjective here!). That duo combined for 14 catches, 136 yards and a touchdown in the Oct 14 win in Philly. However, Brady will have WR Evans (74 catches  with 14 TDs) and Gronk (55 catches / 6 TDs), despite missing five games.

Clearly, the overwhelming edge in experience for the game belongs to the Bucs. It's the playoff debut for first-year Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts, while Brady has nearly twice as many career playoff wins -- 34, an NFL record -- as Hurts has NFL starts (19). Brady is 34-11 in the postseason, including 20-4 at home. All that said, the passing game is already minus Godwin and A.B, plus RB Jones (428 yards) is out with an ankle injury and Fournette's hamstring injury makes him a game-time decision. 

If one remembers, the Bucs won but DID NOT cover in a wild card game last season at Washington and while this is a home, not a road game, I see the same scenario on tap. Hurts is no Brady but he can change a game with his running ability and I'm betting the Bucs will 'sweat' this game until the final gun. Or, like back in Week 6, the 'backdoor' may get left open! Take those points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills split their two regular season meetings (the visiting team won both games) and the two AFC East rivals are set for a rare third meeting (in the same season) on Saturday night in Orchard Park, NY. When's the last time the Pats and Bills squared off in a playoff game? If you guessed Dec 28, 1963, you win a lollipop. The then-Boston Patriots and the Buffalo Bills tied for the AFL's East Division title with records of 7-6-1 and met to decide which team would advance to the AFL championship game against the then-San Diego Chargers (11-3). The Pats dominated the Bills at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo and then went on to take on the Chargers at San Diego's Balboa Stadium. The Pats should have saved themselves the trip, as the Chargers won 51-10. Fullback Keith Lincoln rushed for 206 yards on 13 carries, led the team with 123 yards in receiving, and completed a pass for 20 yards. Other than that, he was a non-factor. One last tidbit. The Chargers' 1963 championship win remains the ONLY major sports title for the city of San Diego, the longest drought for a major American city!

The Pats opened the season 2-4 but then won SEVEN in a row (also 7-0 ATS) but lost THREE of their last four. Still, this revamped New England team bounced back to make the playoffs for the 12th time in 13 seasons after finishing 10-7. The Bills were upset at home in Week 1 by the Steelers but then won four straight, before dropping FIVE of eight to sit just 7-6 after 13 games. However, Buffalo would end the season on a 4-0 run (3-0-1 ATS), averaging 30.0 PPG while allowing 15.0 PPG in that final stretch. Buffalo ended New England's 11-year reign as AFC East champions one year ago as the Patriots finished 7-9 in their first season without Brady, and have now added a second AFC East title in finishing 11-6.

Mac Jones had the best season of any rookie QB, completing 67.6% for 3,801 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs. His top receiving targets are WRs Meyer (83 catches / 2 TDs) Bourne (55 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Henry (50 catches / 9 TDs). It's noteworthy that all three played in each of the team's 17 games. RB Harris ran for 929 yards (4.6 YPC / 15 TDs) and fellow RB Stevenson ran for 606 yards (4.6 YPC / 5 TDs) The Pats do average 27.2 PPG (6th) but as always, Belichick-coached teams thrive on defense. 2021 was no different, as the Pats have allowed 17.8 PPG (2nd) on 310.8 YPG (4th).

Jones had a solid rookie season but he's not yet (may NEVER be!) Josh Allen. Buffalo's QB completed 63.3% for 4,407 yards with 36 TDs and 15 INTs, while adding 763 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC with 9 TDs. The top RB is Singletarty (870 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs), who also caught 40 passes. WRs Diggs (103 catches / 10 TDs), Beasley (82 catches but just one TD) and Sanders (42 catches  / 4 TDs) make up a sweet trio plus TEs Knox (49 catches / 9 TDs) and Davis (13.5 catches / 15.7 YPC! / 6 TDs) are a terrific duo. The Bills average 28.4 PPG (3rd) but the defense is even better than New England's, leading the NFL in points allowed (17.0 per game) and total defense (272.8 PPG).

There is no doubt that the Bills are the better team on paper but the game is NOT played on paper. In fact, the weather report may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Pats and head coach Belichick, who isn't attending his 'first rodeo!' Consider the following.

New England used an unorthodox and weather-altered game plan to win at Buffalo 14-10 back on Dec 6 in snowy and windy conditions. Jones attempted a franchise-record-low three passes and totaled 19 yards as Damien Harris' 111 rushing yards paced the Patriots' powerful run game to a victory. In the rematch on Dec 26 in Foxborough, Allen got his revenge after completing 30 of 47 passes for 314 yards and three TDs in Buffalo's 33-21 triumph. Now to Saturday's third part of the 'trilogy.' The weather conditions appear more likely to be similar to those of the first meeting in Buffalo. Forecasts are calling for bitter cold temperatures in the single digits at the time of kickoff. I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET.

A meeting of 9-7 AFC West rivals (the Chargers and Raiders) on SNF in the final game of the league's first 17-game regular season includes this kicker: the winner earns a spot in the NFL playoffs. The Chargers were 8-5 through 13 games but lost at home in OT to KC and then lost at Houston to the lowly Texans, 41-29, falling to 8-7. Los Angeles arrives in Las Vegas feeling pretty fortunate to be 9-7 (and still 'alive'), after beating the Broncos 34-13 in Week 17 at home. The Raiders were 5-2 coming off a Week 8 bye but then went in the 'tank,' losing FIVE of their next six games However, they closed with three consecutive victories, including a 23-20 nail-biter last week at favored Indianapolis on a last-second 33-yard FG. That sets the stage for the final regular season game of the 2021 season.

Justin Herbert had an excellent rookie season (4,336 yards with 31 TDs and 10 INT) but is having even a better season in 2021, as he is the AFC's starting QB for the Pro Bowl and has already set a franchise record with 35 TD passes (against 14 INTs). WR Allen has 100 catches (8 TDs) and Williams has 67 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), while RB Ekeker has 65 catches with 7 TDs. Ekeler also has 847 yards rushing, adding 11 TDs, while becoming one of the NFL's top all-purpose players.

Las Vegas QB Derek Carr will be in the 'spotlight' Sunday night. After the Chargers' 28-14 victory over the Raiders earlier this season, star Los Angeles defensive end Joey Bosa said of the Raiders' QB: "Great dude, great player ... but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down." Carr's chance to respond is Sunday night. He's thrown for 4,613 yards with a much more modest TD-to-INT ratio than Herbert (21-14). WR Renfro has 99 catches (7 TDs) but with Ruggs (24 catches with a 19.5 YPC thru seven games) lost to the tragedy of being involved with a deadly car crash, the Raiders are a little depth-shy at the WR position (Jones has 42 catches). TE Waller (53 catches) is Carr's favorite receiver, as he has caught more passes from Carr (243) than any other player in the QB's career. He could return and that would be HUGE!

I wouldn't argue that LA may be the better team but I REALLY like the Raiders in this spot. This has been a tumultuous season for the Raiders but they have shown staying power. The Raiders have overcome the resignation of head coach Jon Gruden, the Henry Ruggs tragedy (see above), the release of cornerback Damon Arnette following a video that included death threats and cornerback Nate Hobbs was arrested on a misdemeanor DUI charge. Add to that, the recent passing of former Raiders head coaching legend John Madden.

QB Derek Carr missed the Raiders' only playoff trip in the past 19 years with a broken ankle back in 2016 but note that he is just 72 passing yards away from breaking Rich Gannon's single-season franchise record of 4,689 set in 2002. My bet is he wins the 'battle' against the more heralded Herbert, which means the Raiders are playoff-bound. "Just win, baby!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals went into Dallas in Week 17 and won 25-22, clinching a playoff berth for the first time since 2015 (I had Arizona as my Game of the Month, just saying!). Arizona opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last 22-16 at home to the Colts in Week 16, had lost three in a row before last Sunday's win. The Cardinals can still win the NFC West title and earn a home playoff game, by beating the Seattle Seahawks. That is, if the 49ers can beat the Rams in LA. That's hardly far-fetched, as San Francisco has beaten Los Angeles FIVE straight times! As for the 6-10 Seahawks, they will finish with a losing record for the first time in the decade-long Russell Wilson/Bobby Wagner era. Seattle does come in off an outstanding effort, having snapped a two-game slide last weekend with a 51-29 victory over the visiting Detroit Lions.

Here's what to look for from Seattle on Sunday. Russell Wilson is back in "fine form,' as he threw four TD passes, while RB Rashaad Penny rushed for a career-high 170 yards and two scores. This is the last chance for Penny to make an impression on the rest of the NFL in a meaningful game before hitting free agency in the offseason. No RB has been more productive in the league since Week 14 than Penny, who has run for 481 yards during that stretch. Wilson checks in, having completed 65.2%% for 2,875 yards with 22 TDs and 5 INTs (QB rating of102.5). Three of his four TD passes last Sunday went to Metcalf, who has 70 catches on the season (12 TDs), pairing with fellow WR Lockett (68 / 15.8 YPC / 6 TDs) to form a terrific duo. Everrett (47 catches) is a solid TE. Bobby Wagner suffered a knee injury on Detroit's first offensive play and didn't return. The star linebacker said he hopes to play Sunday. Through a tough season, the Seattle defense has held together, allowing 21.0 PPG (10th).

Arizona QB Kyler Murray looked like the MVP favorite when he threw 17 TD passes (just five INTs) during the 7-0 start. However, he hurt an ankle in the final seconds of a 24-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 8 and missed three games and entered last week's game with just FOUR scoring passes in his previous four games. However, Murray completed 26 of 38 passes for 263 yards and two TDs plus also rushed for 44 yards. He's completing 69.0% on the season for 3,547 yards with 23 TDs and 10 INTs (100.9 QB rating), while adding 388 rushing yards and five TDs. WR Kirk has 75 catches (5 TDs) and AJ Green has 50, averaging 16.5 YPC with 3 TDs. Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs) remains on IR with an outside possibility of returning if the Cards reach Championship Sunday. Arizona has also received much-needed help from WR Antoine Wesley, who has caught three TDs over the past two games. RB James Connor (700 yards / 14 TDs) has missed two games with a heel injury and has been limited in practice this week. Chase Edmonds (592 yards / 5.1 YPC) rushed for a game-high 53 yards against the Cowboys before leaving with an ankle injury and is also questionable for Sunday's game. Overlooked most of the season, Arizona's defense has been terrific, allowing 20.5 PPG (5th).

Seattle comes in with NOTHING to lose but is looking to avoid being swept in a season series by the Cards for the first time since 2009. I realize Seattle's effort last week was only against the Lions, but the Seahawks scored on NINE scored straight possessions for the first time in franchise history. It was also the first time this season ANYONE in the league scored on nine consecutive offensive possessions! Arizona could get caught 'scoreboard watching,' as the 49ers/Rams also start at 4:25 ET. What's more, it's hard to ignore that Arizona has lost FOUR in a row at home. I'm a HUGE Russell Wilson fan and with just 125 yards passing, Russell can join Peyton as the only QBs with 3,000 yards passing and 20 TDs in each of their first 10 seasons. Pretty rarified air! I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on SF/LAR Over at 4:25 ET.

The San Francisco 49ers opened the season 3-5 but have been able to win SIX of their last eight games to reach 9-7 as they visit the Rams Sunday afternoon at Sofi Stadium. The Los Angeles Rams opened 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row to fall to 7-4. Meanwhile, Arizona was 9-2 after 11 games, so the Rams seemed destined for at best, a wild card spot. However, the Rams enter this contest on a FIVE-game winning streak to get to 12-4, while the Cards have fallen to 10-5. Both the Rams and Cards have clinched playoff spots but the Rams will capture the NFC West with a win over the 49ers, or a loss by the Cards. As for the 49ers, they are in as a wild card if they beat the Rams but could also 'sneak' into the playoffs if the Saints lose on Sunday in Atlanta.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, citing current key injuries, the COVID unknown and the general parity among the NFL's top teams, said this week the door is wide open this season for any playoff team to walk away with the hardware. "The goal to me is always: Just to get in," he professed. "Because if you get in, you got the shot. I've always felt like that, and it seems pretty strong this year, too." It's HARD to argue with him on this. The 49ers have won FIVE in a row against their longtime California rival and a SIXTH straight win could give them a psychological edge. A "W' would give the 49ers a third consecutive season-series sweep and a third straight win in LA.

Jimmy Garoppolo went 15-for-19 for 182 yards and two TDs in a 31-10 home win over the Rams in Week 10 but suffered a partially torn ligament in his right thumb in the Week 16 loss at Tennessee. He sat out last week's 23-7 home win over the Houston Texans, a game in which prized rookie Trey Lance threw for 249 yards and two TDs. Shanahan has indicated that Garoppolo (68.0% for 3,494 yards with 19 TDs and 10 INTs), if deemed healthy, would get the start against the Rams. It figures to be a game-day decision. Mitchell has 'saved' the 49ers' running game this season, gaining 878 yards on 4.7 YPC with 6 TDs. He's topped 100 yards rushing in TWO of the last three games (133 in Week 15 at Minnesota and 119 at home vs Houston in Week 17). Then there is WR Samuel, who has 51 rushing attempts for 320 yards (6.3 YPC) and 7 TDs, while snaring a team-best 73 receptions (17.9 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Kittle (66 / 6 TDs) is active and WR Aiyuk has 50 catches (14.4 YPC) with 5 TDs.

Matthew Stafford is sure happy to be out of Detroit, Stafford has completed 67.3% for 4,648 yards with 38 TDs and 15 INTs (QB rating of 103.5). The running game has been better behind Sony Michel (802 yards on the season), who has averaged 99.4 yards per game during the five straight wins. RB Darrell Henderson (688 yards on 4.6 YPC and 5 TDs) is on IR but Cam Akers could finally play after an offseason Achilles injury that was originally expected to cost him his season. WR Kupp leads the NFL in receptions (138), yards (1,829) and receiving TDs (15). Fellow WR Woods (45 catches / 6 TDs) remains on IR but second-year WR Jefferson has 48 catches on 16.1 YPC with 6 TDs (he caught just 19 passes as a rookie, playing in all 16 games!). TE Higbee adds 55 catches and 3 TDs. Cooper Kupp is in position to become the fourth player in NFL history to lead the league in receptions, yards receiving and touchdown catches. Only Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe and Steve Smith have won the triple crown. Kupp is also 12 receptions and 136 yards away from setting the single-season NFL records in both categories, although Kupp believes those potential achievements would deserve a big asterisk in a 17-game season. In the end, that's just a 'side story.'

Neither team's defense has played up to snuff this season, as both find themselves in the middle-of-the-pack. The 49ers will know by kick-off if the Saints have won or lost in Atlanta. If New Orleans lost, the 49ers are in the postseason, win or lose but if the Saints were to win, the 49ers would need to beat the Rams to play next weekend. The Rams could be scoreboard watching as well, as the Cards are hosting the Seahawks at the same time. An Arizona loss clinches the division for the Rams win or lose. In the end, maybe all these "what ifs" are NOT worth worrying about. I expect the Rams to want to win this game pretty badly and end that five-game losing streak. I also expect LA to score here and for the 49ers, whether they need to win or not, to score enough for this game to 'fly' over the number.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at *:15 ET.

The 7-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers entered the weekend with the 11th-best record in the AFC, while the 7-8 Cleveland Browns (7-8) held the 12th position. In the AFC North, the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals were in the lead and the 8-7 Baltimore Ravens held second place. However, the Browns and Steelers were scheduled for MNF, AFTER the other 30 teams played 15 games on Sunday. Now, as the Browns and Steelers get set to square off tonight at Heinz Field, Sunday's results have led to this scenario. The Browns have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Steelers are still 'alive.' However, 'alive' means that to clinch a playoff berth the Steelers need to win tonight at home vs the Browns, then win next Sunday at Baltimore, PLUS they will need the Colts to lose at 2-14 Jacksonville next Sunday. Paraphrasing former President Bill Clinton, "It depends on what your definition of alive is?"

The Browns arrive in Pittsburgh having lost THREE of four, including dropping their last two by TWO points (at home to the Raiders in Week 15 and at Green Bay in Week 16).The Steelers can 'feel Cleveland's pain,' as they get set to host their longtime rivals having gone 2-4-1 over their last seven games. "If you're a Browns fan, you're frustrated," defensive end Myles Garrett (career-best 15 sacks) said. "If you're a Browns player, you're frustrated. If you have anything to do with us, you know that. We've had chances, we just haven't converted or capitalized. I can't tell you how frustrated we are or I am." Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has come under fire for a subpar season in which he has 15 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions (his ratio was 26-8 last season). Mayfield was picked off FOUR times in the loss at Green Bay. Mayfield may be happy to be playing this game in the 'friendly confines' of Heinz Field, as he has been booed at home for the first time in his four-year NFL career.

Mayfield's "opposite number" is 18-year veteran Ben Roethlisberger. The two-time Super Bowl champion is in the homestretch of his 18th season and 'rumor has it,' that this will likely be Big Ben's final regular season home game. Roethlisberger ranks fifth in NFL history with 63,721 passing yards and eighth with 416 passing TDs. The 'talk' all season has been that he has NOTHING left, but Mayfield can only 'dream' of matching Big Ben's numbers in 2021. Roethlisberger has completed 65.2% for 3,373 yards (over 500 more yards than Mayfield has thrown for) with 20 TDs and just 8 INTs.

The Steelers beat the Browns 15-10 in Cleveland back on Oct 31, when they scored the game's final 12 points. Roethlisberger passed for 266 yards and the go-ahead TD. I really like Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, who became the first Browns head coach since Romeo Crennel in 2007 to lead the franchise to a winning season, going 11-5 in his very first year with the Browns (2020).  last seasonStefanski led the Browns to a 11–5 record, finishing third in the AFC North and clinching the Browns' first playoff berth since 2002. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers (at Pittsburgh) in a wild card game. This is a bitter rivalry and the Browns would 'LOVE' nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's chance at making the playoffs but Mike Tomlin, who arrived in Pittsburgh back 2007, has built quite a resume in his time with the Steelers. As the saying goes, "this isn't his first rodeo," while the same can be said regarding Big Ben. Steelers stay 'alive' and head to Baltimore with the hope of beating the Ravens, while 'rooting' for the Jags at home vs the Colts. First things, FIRST. Take the Steelers.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last Saturday 22-16 at home to the Colts (the team's third straight loss), the Cards check in at 10-5, giving them just the fifth-best record in the NFC. The Cards welcome the Cowboys to the desert, a team that has won FOUR in a row after crushing Washington 56-14 last Sunday night. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and at 11-4, own tiebreakers over both the 11-4 Rams and Bucs, giving them the No. 2 seed behind only the 12-3 Packers.

Arizona topped 30 points in SEVEN of its first nine games but has hit that mark just ONCE in the past six contests. The Cardinals have scored 16 points or less in THREE of those games, including head-scratching losses 34-10 to the Panthers and 30-12 against the Lions. QB Kyler Murray looked like the MVP favorite when he threw 17 TD passes (just five INTs) during the 7-0 start. However, he hurt an ankle in the final seconds of a 24-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 8 and missed three games and now has just FOUR scoring passes in his last four games.

WR DeAndre Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), is out for at least the rest of the regular season with an MCL tear that required surgery. Kirk (69 / 5 TDs), Green (47 / 3 TDs) and rookie Moore (54) are all highly capable, but Moore did not play last week and is questionable again for this one. RB James Conner has just a 3.7 YPC average but has run for 700 yards with 14 TDs, However, an ankle injury kept him out last week (questionable for this one). The good news is that his backup Edmonds has returned last the two weeks running for 53 and 56 yards, plus added EIGHT catches vs the Colts (he's got 539 yards on 5.5 YPC). The Arizona defense has struggled at times recently but checks in allowing 20.4 PPG on the season (6th).

Dallas had a rough November, losing THREE of four games, but enters this game in Arizona on a four-game winning streak, with its defense holding opponents to 14.3 PPG. QB Dak Prescott has put up impressive numbers, completing 68.7% for 3,928 with 29 TDs and 10 INTS (he has missed just ONE of 15 games). However, he hadn't been nearly as good since returning from a calf injury in the eighth game. Prescott had thrown just five TD passes over his last five games, after tossing 20 over his first eight appearances. That ended vs Washington, as he threw for 330 yards with four TDs and zero INTs in the romp over, dare I say, the Redskins. WRs Lamb (74 catches / 7 TDs) and Cooper (60 catches / 7 TDs) plus TE Schultz (69 catches / 6 TDs) make for quite a receiving trio. RBs Elliott (899 yards on 4.3 YPC with 10 TDs) and Pollard (710 yards on 5.6 YPC with 2 TDs), give the offense a nice balance.

Trying to explain Arizoan's recent slump, head coach Kliff Kingsburyn opined, "That's what we've got to figure out. I don't have an answer to that, but it's untimely penalties, the snaps hitting the ground, missed kicks. I mean, it's just things that we had done well all year, but we're not doing well (now)." Murray (69.1% for 3,284 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs plus 344 rushing yards with 5 TDs) isn't much interested in the rhetoric when it comes to the slippage on his part or the Cardinals in general. "Me personally, I'm not panicking. I don't think anybody on this team is panicking," Murray said. "Yes, we've lost three in a row. The Rams lost three in a row, everybody was counting them out, the Chiefs (lost four of six). It's not a thing where it doesn't happen. This is the NFL; it's not easy."

A date on the road to end this slide is just what the doctor ordered for Arizona, as the Cardinals enter having gone 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Meanwhile, Dallas just clinched with that blowout win over hated-Washington and is 'ripe' for a major letdown. 10-5 Arizona needs help to overtake the 11-4 Rams in the NFC West but a win here is a MUST. I'm taking the near-TD worth of points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The KC Chiefs were 3-4 through seven games this season and the refrain was, "What's wrong with the Chiefs?" No one is asking that question now, as KC comes to Cincinnati on an 8-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), having clinched the AFC West for SIXTH consecutive years. The 11-4 Chiefs hold a one-game advantage over 10-5 Tennessee in the chase for the first-round bye and home field advantage that goes to the top seed. However, a real challenge awaits against the 9-6 Bengals, who only need one win to clinch their first AFC North title since 2015. QB Joe Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 yards passing in a rout of Baltimore in Week 16, completing 37 of 46 with four TDs.

Patrick Mahomes was asked how the Chiefs overcame a 3-4 start and said, "nobody held their head down. We knew there was a lot of season left and everything we wanted was right in front of us." Mahonmes looked 'mortal' in the early going but he's back to being 'Superman' in KC's eight-game winning streak. He comes in completing 66.1% for 4,310 yards with 33 TDs and 13 INTs. WR Hill (104 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (83 catches / 7 TDs) remain the league's best WR/TE duo in the NFL and both are 'good to go here,' after dealing with COVID protocols. However, as we saw last week, playmaking receivers for the Chiefs do not have to be named Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Byron Pringle (34 catches / 5 TDs) caught SIX passes for 75 yards and two TDs in KC's 36-10 dismantling of Pittsburgh. The Chiefs have used multiple rushing threats this season, as starter Edwards-Helaire (517 yards / 4.3 YPC / 4 TDs) has been limited to 10 games and sustained a collarbone injury vs Pittsburgh and has been ruled out for Sunday's game. Williams (453 yards / 3.7 YPC / 4 TDs) has been KC's best backup. The KC defense has always been somewhat of a question mark, but it has allowed just 12.9 PPG during the team's eight-game winning streak and on the season, ranks 5th in allowing 20.4 points.

It's been quite a bounce-back season for Burrow and the Bengals, as Cincy went just 4-11-1 in Burrow's rookie season (he played just 10 games before being lost for the rest of the season to injry). However, the former No. 1 overall pick hasn't missed a game this season, completing 69.9% for 4,165 yards with 30 TDs and 14 INTs. WR Tee Higgins has been surging, posting 583 yards receiving in the last five games. Both Higgins (71 catches / 6 TDs) and rookie Ja'Marr Chase (68 catches / 10 TDs) have more than 1,000 receiving yards on the season. A third WR, Boyd, has 63 catches with 4 TDs and TE Uzomah adds 45 catches and 5 TDs. RB Joe Mixon ranks second among NFL rushers with 1,159 yards (has 13 rushing TDs plus adds 3 more on 35 catches). Speaking of defenses, Cincy's has allowed just 21.6 PPG (13th) this season, after allowing an average of 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons.

BOTH teams have a lot on the line and I'm never too comfortable going against Mahomes but I REALLY like Burrow and all his 'weapons' plus the Cincy defense now gives the Bengals a real chance against the 'big boys' (lost here at home to the Packers by three points in OT!). Cincy comes in 8-4-1 as a home dog recently and I say "Eight is Enough" for KC. Upset alert but naturally, take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Featured Sunday O/U is on Mia/Ten Over at 1:00 ET.

Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run to become the first team in NFL history to win seven straight games and also lose seven consecutive games in the same season. The now 8-7 Dolphins can make the playoffs but they'll have to beat both the 10-4 Titans and 9-6 Patriots to close out the regular season.

Miami is in Nashville on Sunday to take on the Titans, who rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit in Week 16 to beat the 49ers 20-17 on Bullock's 44-yard FG with four seconds left. "We're not dead yet," Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel said of the Titans, who had lost three of their previous four games. Now, a win over the Dolphins would give the Titans their second straight AFC South championship.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa (70.1% for 2,339 yards with 15 TDs and 9 INTs) has made a living this year out of short and safe passes to rookie WR Waddle and TE Gesicki. Waddle has set the Dolphins rookie record for receiving yards with 941 on 96 catches and Gesicki. has 67 catches for 707 yards with two TDs. The Miami running game is a problem, as the Dolphins average only 86.6 YPG on the ground to rank 30th of 32 teams. The Miami D has allowed just 11.8 PPG in its seven-game winning streak and checks in allowing 21.0 PPG on the season to rank 10th.

The Titans haven't been the same since RB Derrick Henry was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill has had to shoulder more of the load, and he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of seven games since Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was hurt. Henry has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy. Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 15 TDs and 14 INTs and a QB rating of 84,8. Tannehill had not thrown for more than 191 yards in the three games WR Brown had been on injured reserve but the third-year receiver was activated off IR before last week's game and caught 11 passes for 145 yards with a TD. Tannehill threw for 209 with a TD and no INTs.

The backstory in this game is that Tannehill spent six seasons as Miami's starting quarterback, struggling with mediocre talent surrounding him (Tannehill had a 42-46 record as Miami's starting QB). However, with Tennessee, Tannehill has produced an impressive 28-13 record. The Dolphins are 'on fire' but winning here will be tough. Note that Miami has been very fortunate during its winning streak, the second-longest active run in the NFL, as the Dolphins have beaten just ONE team that does not have a losing record. That team is Baltimore, which is barely above .500 at 8-7, having lost FOUR in a row.

While some may see this as an 'under,' I expect Tannehill to come up with a HUGE effort vs his former team plus I expect Tua to make some 'noise' as well. This Over/Under is WAAAY too low. It's Goin' Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

What a difference a month can make. The Rams sat 7-1 at the close of October but would go 0-3 in November (had a bye week) and at 7-4, expected their only chance at a playoff berth was as a wild card. However, LA ripped off FOUR straight wins (while the Cards have imploded) and at 11-4, now own a one-game lead in the NFC West with two games to go and have already clinched at least a wild card berth. As for LA's Week 17 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens were 8-3 through Week 12 but welcomed the Rams to Baltimore on a four-game losing streak that dropped them to 8-7. The Ravens are currently one of FOUR, 8-7 AFC teams looking to secure the last wild card spot (Dolphins currently own the tiebreakers with two games left).

QB Matthew Stafford became suddenly inconsistent when the Rams lost November games to the Titans, 49ers and Packers. He 'stopped the bleeding' during much of the team's four-game winning streak but did throw three INTs in last week's win at Minnesota. However, the running game has been better behind Sony Michel (728 yards on the season), who has averaged 105.8 yards per game during the four straight wins. RB Darrell Henderson (688 yards on 4.6 YPC and 5 TDs) is out this week with a knee injury but Cam Akers is expected to make his 2021 debut after an offseason Achilles injury that was originally expected to cost him his season. Getting back to Stafford, one can't deny his numbers through 15 games, as he's completed 66.9% for 4,339 yards with 36 TDs and 13 INTs. His QB rating of 104.0 would be just his second plus-100.0 rating during his 13-year career. WR Kupp leads the NFL in receptions (132), yards (1,734) and receiving TDs (14). Fellow WR Woods (45 catches / 6 TDs) remains on IR but second-year WR Jefferson has 44 catches on 16.1 YPC with 6 TDs (he caught just 19 passes as a rookie, playing in all 16 games!). TE Higbee adds 49 catches and 3 TDs. The offense averages 27.7 PPG (6th) and the defense allows 21.7 PPG (16th).

While the Rams are looking to nail down a division title, the Ravens are on the opposite end of what the Rams are going through, losing their grasp on the AFC North lead and are suddenly in a mad scramble to make the playoffs. The Ravens are hoping to get Lamar Jackson back from an ankle injury that occurred during a Dec 12 loss to the Cleveland Browns. He was limited in practice Wednesday and even if Jackson does return, it remains to be seen if he can lean on rushing ability. His 767 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) lead all QBs. Here's a thought. If Jackson isn't 100 percent, keep him on the bench. Tyler Huntley replaced Jackson in that Cleveland game and went 27 of 38 for 270 yards with one TD and zero INTs (also ran for 45 yards). Then in a one-point loss at home to Green Bay, completed 28 of 40 for 215 yards with two TDs and zero INTs, while adding 73 yards rushing with two TDs. Can/could Jackson do better? Huntley missed the Cincy game (COVID) but is available today. The chief concern is a Baltimore defense that was torched last week for 525 passing yards by the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow, the fourth-highest single-game total in NFL history. The Ravens' defense has not only been hit hard by injuries, but it has been diminished by COVID-19 issues as well. Eleven Ravens did not practice Wednesday.

Here's the bottom line. The Ravens have lost TWICE this season by 'going for two' at the end of a game, instead of 'risking' OT. John Harbaugh's team is 0-2. Regrets? He 'may have a few" as Frank once sang. The Ravens are 5-2 at home plus are 2-0 ATS as a home dog this season. Take the home dog. Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured Sunday O/U (NFC East O/U Game of the Year) is on Was/Dal Over at 8:20 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys were not on the field Thursday night but when the Titans edged the 49ers 20-17 on a FG with four seconds left in the game, Dallas became the second NFL team to clinch a 2021 playoff berth, joining the Green Bay Packers. The 10-4 Cowboys have a three-game lead over the 7-7 Philadelphia Eagles in the division race and can clinch the NFC East with a victory over the visiting 7-7 Washington Football Team on Sunday Night Football. The Dallas/Washington rivalry is among the most intense in the NFL and the two teams meet for the SECOND time in a three-week span. Dallas led that Week 14 game in Washington 24-0 at the half but despite forcing FOUR turnovers and Washington losing starting QB Taylor Heinicke to an injured knee (left and didn't return), the Cowboys needed to hang on for a 27-20 win.

Heinicke didn't play Tuesday night in Washington's 27-17 loss at Philadelphia but he's back here. He's proven himself this season, completing 66.5% for 2,931 yards with 19 TDs and 12 INTs. He needs 69 yards passing for 3,000 on the season plus has run for 297 yards on 5.4 YPC. Pass-catching RB McKissic (43 receptions ranks second on the team) is out, which means Washington could really use RB Gibson (862 rushing yards with 5 TDs) on the field. However, he had just 26 yards on 15 carries in Tuesday's game and has missed practice time with a toe injury during the week. If he can't go, rookie Patterson will get the call, but he's carried the ball just 41 times with a 3.8 YPC average. WR McLaurin (63 catches / 13.6 YPC / 5 TDs) is Washington's lone receiver of note, with Humphries and Carter (each has played all 14 games) combining for 59 catches with only three TDs.

Dallas had a rough November, losing THREE of four games, but enters this quick turnaround vs Washington having just completed a 3-0 three-game road trip. Dallas has allowed an average of 14.3 PPG during the winning streak, forcing four turnovers in each contest (first time Dallas has done that over a three-game stretch since 1994!). QB Dak Prescott has put up impressive numbers, completing 68.5% for 3,598 with 25 TDs and 10 INTS (he has missed just ONE of 14 games). However, he hasn't been nearly as good since returning from a calf injury in the eighth game. Prescott couldn't get himself going in the first meeting with Washington two weeks ago. His pick-6 in the fourth quarter gave Washington a chance to tie after trailing by 19 with less than six minutes remaining. In fact, Prescott has thrown just five TD passes over the last five games, after tossing 20 over his first eight appearances. RB Elliott (862 yards / 4.3 YPC / 9 TDs) has been saying his ailing right knee is getting better, but he's now on a six-game streak with a per-carry average below four yards. With 51 yards against the Giants, he ended a five-game run below that mark. That said, he needs 123 scrimmage yards to join LaDainian Tomlinson as the only players to with at least 1,250 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in each of their first six seasons (not bad company). Zeke's RB partner is Tony Pollard (676 yards on 5.7 YPC) and he needs just 52 scrimmage yards for his first season with at least 1,000. WRs Lamb (70 catches / 6 TDs) and Cooper (53 catches / 6 TDs) are both healthy and TE Shultz has 61 catches with 5 TDs.

Yes, the Dallas defense is playing great, but Washington could very well come into this contest with almost no running game to speak of and will be forced to throw. Yes, Dak has not had is "A-game" for a month, but Prescott is 4-0 with 11 TDs (nine passing / two rushing) and no interceptions at home against Washington. The last time the Cowboys were at home was Thanksgiving Day, when they lost 36-33 to the Raiders in OT. Dak threw for 375 yards and two TDs in that one and I'm expecting Dak and the Dallas offense to 'wake up' here vs the hated-Redskins (slip of the tongue) and put up some impressive numbers. Washington and Heinicke will HAVE to score to keep up. This one is Goin' over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The Buffalo (8-6) came up short in a 14-10 loss to New England on a snowy and windy night on Dec 6 at Orchard Park, NY but following the Bills' 31-14 win over Carolina, and New England's 27-17 loss at Indianapolis last weekend (that snapped a 7-0 run SU & ATS by the Pats), the AFC East division is back in play this Sunday. A Buffalo win over the 9-5 Patriots would return the Bills to the top of the AFC East standings entering the final two weeks of the regular season, as a victory would give Buffalo a superior division record over New England. As for the Pats, they will be looking to bounce back from their first loss in over two months (see above). The post-bye week loss dropped the Patriots to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind the Kansas City Chiefs, and then they dropped to No. 3 Thursday night after the Tennessee Titans defeated the San Francisco 49ers to move to 10-5. The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth through a few different outcomes this weekend, but more importantly, they can lock up the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss on Monday night.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has completed 65.2% for 3,734 yards with 31 TDs and 12 INTs, while adding 555 yards rushing (6.2 YPC and 4 TDs) With three TDs passing last weekend, Josh Allen increased his season total to 31 in becoming Buffalo's first player with 30 or more TDs passing in consecutive seasons. However, Allen has committed a turnover in seven consecutive games over which he has nine interceptions and two lost fumbles versus 15 TDs (including one rushing). Third-year RB Devin Singletary had a career-best 22 carries and a season-high 86 yards rushing and a TD last weekend, giving him 633 yards on 4.7 YPC with 3 TDs on the season.  WR Stefon Diggs (82 catches / 1,007 yards / 8 TDs) joined Eric Moulds (2004-05) in becoming Buffalo's second player to top 80 in consecutive years. And with 1,007 yards receiving, Diggs joined Stevie Johnson (2010-12) as Buffalo's second player to top 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. However, WRs Cole Beasley (76 catches) and Gabriel Davis (29 / 16.2 YPC / 6 TDs) have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list (they won't play). That said, vet WR Sanders (40 catches / 15.1 YPC / 4 TDs) practiced fully on Thursday in his bid to return to the team. TE Knox is having a terrific season with 44 catches and 8 TDs. Then there is the Buffalo defense, which is allowing 17.4 PPG (3rd) on league-low 287.9 YPG.

New England's rookie QB Mac Jones is completing 69.0% for 3,168 yards with 18 TDs and 10 INTs. The best completion percentage for a season by a rookie QB is Dak Prescott at 67.7% in 2016. Jones also needs one more game with a completion percentage of 70% to tie Prescott's rookie record (nine). He needs just two TD passes to become the 15th rookie to reach 3,000 yards passing and 20 TDs. He's hoping RB Harris (754 yards on 4.6 YPC with 9 TDs) will be available. He missed last week (hamstring) and was among eight Patriots players listed as limited on Thursday. WR Bourne 45 catches / 14.8 YPC / 5 TDs) was one of four Patriots who entered the week on the COVID-19 list. WR Meyers leads the team with 65 catches but averages only 10.2 YPC with one TD. TEs Henry (41 catches / 9 TDs) and Smith (27 catches / 1 TD) make quite a TE duo. Belichick again has an excellent defense, allowing 16.2 PPG (1st) on 307.5 YPG (3rd).

Allen was ineffective in the first meeting between these two in windy and wet conditions, while Jones was able to 'escape' with a "W" despite attempting only THREE passes. The weather will be MUCH nicer on Sunday and Jones will likely need to do MUCH more this time around, up against the NFL's top-ranked pass defense (allowing 175.6 YPG passing, 11 TDs with 17 INTs plus holding opposing QBs to an NFL-low 66.7 QB rating). "Revenge is a dish best served cold" and that's EXACTLY what I see in Foxboro on Sunday. The Bills get the "W" but of course, we take any points available.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cards at 8:15 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts opened the season 0-3 and 1-4, before winning SEVEN of their last nine (56-3 ATS) to climb back into playoff contention at 8-6. However, the Colts got some bad news on Thursday when the Titans kicked a 44-yard field goal with FOUR seconds remaining to rally from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the 49ers 20-17. The 10-5 Titans are now a win or a Colts' loss away from clinching their second straight AFC South title. At this moment, the Colts are one FIVE teams at 8-6. The Bengals would currently win the AFC North but the Colts (thru tiebreakers), currently hold down the AFC's No. 5 seed.

The Arizona Cardinals surprised with a win Week 1 at Tennessee and shocked the NFL world by opening the season with a 7-0 (6-1 ATS) start. I think being shocked is fair, as the Cards entered the 2021 season without a winning season since 2015 (five in a row!). However, the team's 7-0 start is a distant memory with how they have fared lately. The Cards are just 3-4 their last seven games, including back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles Rams and then a shocking 30-12 loss against the Lions (as 13-point favorites), who had the worst record in the NFL with only one win entering the game. The 10-4 Cards are tied atop the NFC West with the Rams but currently own the tiebreaker edge. The Rams are in Minnesota to play the 7-7 Vikings.

Carson Wentz's career seemed 'dead' but by coming to Indy, he was reunited with Frank Reich (now Indy's head coach), who was on Philly's staff when Wentz had his best seasons with the Eagles. He's completing 62.7% for 3,005 yards with 23 TDs and just 6 INTs. With all due respect to Wentz, the key to the Indy offense is second-year RB ' Jonathan Taylor. Taylor leads the league with 1,518 rushing yards on 5.6 YPC. No other RB is within 424 yards of him. He rushed for 170 yards and one TD against the New England Patriots defense in a 27-17 victory in Week 15. The Colts have relied heavily on Taylor in recent games. Through the first 10 games of the season, Taylor averaged 16.1 carries per game but over the last four, he has averaged 27.3 carries. Taylor has 17 rushing TDs plus two more on his 36 catches. The Indianapolis defense is allowing 21.4 PPG (9th), after allowing just 17 points in its last two games.

The Cardinals have gone from having the best record in the NFL two weeks ago to dropping to the No. 4 playoff seed in the NFC. QB Kyler Murray is completing 69.8% for 3,039 with 20 TDs and 10 TDS (he has also run for 5 TDs). However, he is showing signs of frustration in the last three weeks since returning from an injury, including losses in the last two games. He's thrown three interceptions and three TD passes against the Chicago Bears, Rams and Lions, while getting sacked seven times. In the back-to-back losses to the Rams and Lions, he has had one TD and 3 INTs, with QB ratings of 72.1 and 72.9. Against Detroit, he uncharacteristically rushed for just THREE yards on four attempts. One of his favorite targets, WR DeAndre Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), is out for at least the rest of the regular season with an MCL tear that required surgery. Kirk (62 / 5 TDs), Green (46 / 3 TDs) and rookie Moore (54) are all highly capable, but Moore was absent from practice on Wednesday with an injury (?). RB James Conner has just a 3.7 YPC average but has run for 700 yards with 14 TDs. However, after he fought through an ankle injury against Detroit, he was listed as a non-participant in the team's injury report this week with a heel issue suffered against the Colts. The good news would be that his backup Edmonds returned last week and ran for 53 yards on just six carries. He has 483 yards on the season, averaging 5.9 YPC. The Arizona defense has allowed 30-plus points in THREE of its last five games but checks in at 20.3 PPG allowed on the season (5th-best).

Arizona can't clinch the NFC West with a win here, but the Cards can clinch a playoff spot (would be the team's first since 2015). The Colts enter playing very well but could be in a perfect "let down" spot after their 27-17 Week 15 win over the Pats, which snapped New England's SEVEN-game SU and ATS winning streak. I expect Murray to come up big and at this number, an Arizona "W" means a cover.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET.

The SF 49ers lost 31-17 at home to Arizona on Nov 7 but they have rebounded to win FIVE of their last six to reach 8-6. San Francisco currently owns the sixth-best record in the NFC, as the 49ers head to Tennessee on Thursday night. The Titans lost their Week 1 game at home to Arizona but then won EIGHT of nine. That said, the Titans 'limp' into this contest having lost THREE of four (lone win came 20-0 over the hapless Jags) but at 9-5, still lead the AFC South by one game over the Colts.

The 49ers have had huge injury issues in their backfield but still average 126.6 YPG on the ground (7th-best). Leading rusher Mitchell (759 yards on 4.6 YPC with 5 TDs) missed San Francisco's 31-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday due to a concussion and a knee injury. He has cleared the concussion protocol, and the 49ers are waiting to see whether the knee will respond and allow him to play. RB Jeff Wilson Jr. has had a late-season resurgence after a freak knee injury in the offseason sidelined him for the first half of the schedule. Wilson took some time to find his rhythm but is again running like the player who led San Francisco in rushing last season. He had 56 yards two weeks ago against the Bengals and then ran 21 times for 110 yards and a TD last week against the Falcons for his third career 100-yard game. QB Jimmy G was on the 'hot seat' early this season but comes in completing 67.4% for 3,172 yards with 18 TDs and 8 INTs. He's completing 70.2% with 10 TDs and 3 INTs during San Francisco's current 5-1 run. TE Kittle is back and has caught 28 passes the last three games (15.2 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Samuels has 61 catches (17.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus 269 rushing with 7 TDs.

The Titans haven't been the same since RB Derrick Henry was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill has had to shoulder more of the load, and he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in THREE straight games and four of six since Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was hurt. Henry has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy. Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 14 TDs and 14 INTs and a QB rating of 83.4. Tannehill has not thrown for more than 191 yards in the three games WR Brown (46 catches / 13.4 YPC / 3 TDs) has been on injured reserve. The third-year receiver is eligible to be activated off IR before this game, and Brown's return would give the Titans much-needed help in the passing game.

The Titans need to quickly push aside the disappointment of letting a 10-point lead get away last Sunday in a 19-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Titans have a one-game lead over Indianapolis in the AFC South and need any combination of a Titans win and/or a Colts loss will to clinch a second straight division title. This is the first of two straight home games for the Titans, with the red-hot Dolphins coming to Tennessee in Week 17. A win here is a BIG deal (the Titans draw the sad-sack Texans in Week 18) and I'm backing the home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET.

The 6-7 Minnesota Vikings will look to bolster their chances of making the playoffs when they visit the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Minnesota is among a crowded group of NFC teams that are chasing potential wild-card berths. The Vikings are coming off a 36-28 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and have THREE wins in their last five games. The Vikings will move up to the No. 7 spot if they beat the Bears on Monday night and they'll stay there if Washington loses Tuesday to the Eagles. The homestanding Chicago Bears enter the contest 4-9 and just looking for a bright spot in what has been a dreary season. The Bears have SEVEN of theri last eight. Rookie QB Justin Fields has offered glimpses of his potential but he also has endured growing pains in his first season out of Ohio State.

There are NO 'growing pains' for Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins, who is completing 66.9% for 3,569 yards with 27 TDs and 5 INTs (103.5 rating). RB Cook returned in Week 14 to run for 205 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh. He needs only 22 rushing yards to reach the 1,000-yard milestone for the third season in a row. He is averaging 119.7 yards from scrimmage (97.8 rushing, 21.9 receiving) in 10 games this season. WR Justin Jefferson (2,688) needs 68 receiving yards for the most in NFL history in a player's first two seasons in the Super Bowl era. He has 85 catches (15.2 YPC) and 8 TDs. WR Thielen has 64 catches and 10TDs but missed last week (he's questionable here). The Vikings average 26.5 PPG (9th) but allow 25.6 PPG (25th).

I referred to Fields earlier and he enters (in 11 games) completing just 57.6% for 1,585 with 6 TDs and 10 INTs. He did pass frpo 224 yards with two TDs plus ran for 74 more yards last week vs Green Bay but also threw two INTs. Chicago led the Packers 27-21 at the half but got outscored 24-3 in the second half. That game kind of sums up Chicago's 4-9 season. RB Montgomery has 608 yards on 4.2 YPC with 4 TDs and the Chicago receiving corps is very mediocre. The Bears average only 17.8 PPG (28th) and allow 25.5 PPG (24th).

There every reason to think Minnesota should win this game but I'm guessing MOST thought that the Bucs(at home) would beat the Saints! Final Score: Saints 9 Bucs 0! The Vikings nearly blew a 29-0 lead last week, hanging on by forcing an incomplete pass in the end zone on the final play. Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent this season, so how can one trust them? Note that the Bears have won FIVE of the last six meetings between these two "Black & Blue" division rivals. Want more? Cousins enter the NFL in 2012 and in his career with Washington and Minnesota, owns an 0-9 record on MNF. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the Cin Bengals at 4:05 ET.

Cincy QB Joe Burrow was limited to 10 games as a rookie and the Bengals finished 4-11-1. It was the franchise's 5th consecutive losing season, after being a playoff team, in SIX of seven seasons between 2009-15. The Broncos would go 5-11 in 2020, the team's FIFTH consecutive losing season as well, after winning the team's third Super Bowl ring in the 2015 season.

The Bengals were 7-4 after a 41-10 Week 12 win over Pittsburgh but then dropped the last two games (BOTH at home), 41-22 to the Chargers and 26-23 in OT vs the 49ers. The Broncos surprised most (all?) by opening 3-0, but promptly lost FOUR in a row. However, Denver has recovered to win FOUR of its last six and now matches the Bengals at 7-6. The Bengals are still right in the AFC North race (Ravens lead at just 8-4) but the Broncos are hardly a threat in the AFC West, as the Chiefs are 9-4, after winning FOUR in a row. That said, BOTH are in a jam-packed race for one of three AFC wild card spots.

Burrow comes in completing 68.8% for 3,483 yards with 25 TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 100.6). RB Mixon is having a creer season, rushing for 1,038 yards and 12 TDs, plus has 28 catches for two more scores. LSU rookie WR Chase (No. 5 overall pick) leads with 60 catches (17.3 YPC / 10 TDs) and Higgins is up to 57 catches (14.2 YPC / 4 TDs), having caught 20 pases the last three games, after missing two games. The third WR is Boyd (55 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Uzomah has 37 catches and 5 TDs. Cincy allows 22.5 PPG (17th) but note that's an improvement over the last seasons, when the Bengals allowed an average of 27.1 PPG.

Denver QB Bridgewater flies under the radar, completing 67.6 % for 2,954 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. His WR group can't match Burrow's, with Sutton (48 catches / 2 TDs) and Patrick (42 catches / 4 TDs). However, TE Fant leads the team with 53 catches. Denver has two RBs with over 700 yards rushing, Williams (743 / 4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and Gordon (716 / 4.8 / 7 TDs), which gives Denver an edge in that department. The Broncos also own the edge defensively, allowing 17.5 PPG, 2nd-best in the entire NFL.

Two fumbled punts by Cincinnati returner Darius Phillips led to 10 first-half points for the 49ers last Sunday. A taunting call against Bengals safety Vonn Bell extended the second of those Niners drives, which ended in a 14-yard TD pass from Garoppolo to Kittle that gave San Francisco a 17-6 halftime lead. However, Burrow showed how much he's grown this season by leading two late 4th-quarter drives, both ending with a TD pass to Chase. The Bengals took the lead in OT with a FG but lost on a San Francisco TD.

As for Denver, after pregame tributes to WR Thomas, the Broncos, notorious slow starters, scored TDs on their first two drives. The first quarter ended with the Broncos holding a 14-0 lead, an 11-0 advantage in FDs and a yardage disparity of 135 to minus-1. The final was 38-10, as the Lions fell to 1-11-1 on the season. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner here would own the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, although with some many teams in the mix, other tiebreakers may decide things. However, as I noted at the top, the Bengals still have a real shot at winning the division. After two back-to-back home losses, getting a road game, where the Bengals are 4-2, is NOT a bad thing. In the end, I also like Burrow over Bridgeater in 'crunch time.' That said, I don't expect there to be 'crunch time,' as the Bengals win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The 9-5 Tennessee Titans entered Week 15 in a three-way tie atop the AFC standings with four games remaining. They are battling the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs for the conference's top seed and only postseason bye. However, the Chiefs got an early start to the week winning in LA over the Chargers on Thursday, moving to 10-4. The Pats play Saturday at Indy, so the Titans could take the field needing to win to keep pace with those teams. Are the Titans really rooting for AFC South rival Indy to beat the Colts? Heading into Week 15, the 8-6 Colts are still within striking distance of the Titans (two back with four to go). As for the Steelers, they are just 6-6-1 and in last place in the AFC North. However, the division is still "up for grabs," as the Ravens lead at 8-5, with the Bengals and Browns at 7-6. QB Ben Roethlisberger still believes the Pittsburgh Steelers have what it takes to be a playoff team. However, time is running out to prove it.

RB Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy, which gave the Titans a 6-2 record. Tennessee won its first two games without Henry (up to 8-2) but then lost a shocker to the Texans and were humbled 36-13 by the red-hot Pats. A Week 13 bye helped, as did Tennessee's opponent in its Week 14 return. The Titans drew the Jags and won, 20-0. The running game struggles without Henry plus Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 14 TDs and 13 INTs and a QB rating of 84.5. The Tennessee offense and defense both rank 15th of the 32 teams. The Titans are averaging 24.9 PPG, while allowing 22.3.

The Steelers were 5-3 after eight games but have only one victory in their past five games, a 1-3-1 run that began with an embarrassing home tie against the Detroit Lions and continued in Week 14 (Thursday game) with a 36-28 road defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. The Steelers did storm back in that one, nearly erasing a 29-0, third-quarter deficit, but they ultimately fell short on the final play. They find themselves 11th in the AFC standings, although they are a mere half-game behind a pack of five teams that sit at 7-6. People have 'buried' Big Ben this season but he's completing 65.3% for 3,066 yards with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. Compare those numbers to Tannehill's? Rookie RB Harris may only average 3.7 YPC but he's run for 873 yards (6 TDs) plus caught 60 passes for another three TDs. Roethlisberger doesn't have a WR duo like Stallworh and Swan but the Pittsburgh receiving corps is solid. The Steelers have struggled offensively (20.9 PPG ranks 21st) and their defense is no longer an elite until (24.8 PPG ranks 22nd) but DON'T count them out in this one.

Yes, Tennessee can clinch the AFC South with a win here AND an Indy loss, which would also mean that the Pats, Chiefs and Titans would all remain tied atop the AFC at 10-4. However, a Pittsburgh win could really make things interesting in the AFC North, as Baltimore and Cincy are currently struggling plus the Browns have been ravaged by COVID. The Steelers have won THREE straight in the series, including a 27-24 victory last season but MORE importantly, Pittsburgh has gone 7-0 ATS in its last seven times as a home dog! Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Featured O/U is on the NJY/Mia Over at 1:00 ET.

The Jets drafted BYU's Zach Wilson No. 2 in the 2021 Draft, right after the Jags took Trevor Lawrence, hoping that he would develop into the franchise QB the team has been searching for the last few decades. The early returns? Not so good! The Dolphins are led by QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was the 5th overall pick in the 2020 Draft. Things are going MUCH better for Tua, as he and the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Hard Rock Stadium for this Week 15 contest. The 3-10 Jets have already been eliminated from playoff contention for a franchise-record 11th consecutive year, which is also the longest active drought in the NFL Meanwhile, the Dolphins are looking to extend their 5-0 SU & ATS winning streak to six games on Sunday.

The Jets opened the season 2-8, although both wins were shockers. They first beat the Titans 27-24 in OT (note: Tennessee is in a three-way tie for the AFC's best record with Kansas City and New England at 9-4) plus then beat the Bengals 34-31 as 11.5-point underdogs. New York's only other win this season has come 21-14 over the equally sad-sack 2-11 Houston Texans. Wilson has struggled, missing three games due to injury and compiling a 2-7 record in his nine starts. He is completing just 56.1 percent of his passes and has just six TD passes while getting intercepted 11 times in 285 attempts (QB rating is a pathetic 65.3). The Jets' running game is almost non-existent (84.2 YPG ranks 30Th) and on the season, New York's 17.4 PPG ranks 29th.

Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 5-0 SU & ATS run. Tua regained the starting QB job (injury/poor play) and has led the team in the last four wins. In his team's last three games, Tua has focused on staying in the pocket (just nine rush attempts), completing 80% of his 105 pass attempts with five TD passes and just one INT.  Miami's running game is actually worse than New York's, averaging 79.2 YPG (31st)but Tua does have two impressive 'targets' in rookie WR Waddle (86 catches) and TE Gesicki (59 catches).

These teams met back in Week 11, with the Jets losing at home 24-17. However, total yards were about even, Mia had 388 to NY's 380, with Tua throwing for 273 yards and Flacco for 291. it's Wilson not Flacco here and while I don't expect the Jets to score too much vs a Miami defense allowing just 11.0 PPG during the team's five-game winning streak, I do expect them to approach their season average of 17.4 PPG, playing in the perfect weather of Miami. Meanwhile, Tua and the Dolphins should have NO problem moving (AND scoring!) against a New York defense allowing an NFL-worst 30.5 PPG on 397.8 PPG (31st of 32 teams). No reason NOT to think that the Dolphins won't top 30 points, meaning we don't need too much from the Jets to exceed this low O/U number. The play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft and in his first two seasons, the Cards went 5-10-1 and 8-8. However, he and his team opened the current season 7-0 before losing to Green Bay in Week 8. More bad news followed, as Murray was sidelined with an ankle in Weeks 9-11, although the Cards were able to go 2-1. Week 12 brought a bye and Murray returned in Week 13 in a 33-22 win at Chicago (two TD passses / 2 rushing TDs). The 10-2 Cardinals can essentially put the NFC West out of reach with a victory, which would be their second over the 8-4 Rams this season. Each team has four games remaining after Monday.

Speaking of the Rams, they opened 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, as the defense allowed a whopping 31.7 PPG. The Rams finally broke that streak last week with a 37-7 home win over the Jags but does that REALLY count. Speaking of injury, there have been reports that Matthew Stafford is playing through multiple injuries, although he has not admitted to being physically restricted.

Let's start with Stafford. Happy to be out of Detroit, Stafford is completing 66.7% for 3,611 yards with 30TDs and 9 INTs (QB rating of 106.3 would be a career-best), despite the running game is of little help (97.9 YPG ranks 24th). WR Kupp (100 catches / 11 TDs) has blossomed into a star and while Woods (45 / 4 TDs) has been lost for the season, second-year WR Jeferson has 39 catches (15.9 YPC / 5 TDs), after catching just 19 last season (he played all 16 games). Then there's the signing of OBJ, who HC Sean McVay says will be a significant part of the offense (three games: 9 catches / 2 TDs). TE Higbee adds 44 catches (3 TDs). The offense is just fine (298.0 PPG) but the defense HAS to show up!

Murray returned last week from a three-game absence because of an ankle injury and guided the Cardinals to a 33-22 victory over the Chicago Bears. He had a modest 123 yards passing on 11 completions, amid inclement weather, but threw for two scores while running for two more on 59 yards rushing. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins also returned from a three-game absence and had a TD reception as the Cardinals. Arizona's rushing game ranks eighth at 128.2 YPG. Hopkins has 37 receptions (14.0 YPC / 8 TDs) but Kirk leads the team with 50 catches. Vet AJ Green has been solid (35 / 15.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and TE Ertz (41 / 5 TDs) was a GREAT pickup from Philly. Plenty to love about the Arizona offense (28.6 PPG) but the team's HUGE improvement is due to a defense allowing just 18.7 PPG (4th)

On the face of it, Arizona looks like the better team (and it may be) but this a "win or else" game for the Rams, if they ANY intention of winning the NFC West. Let me note that the Cardinals are 7-0 on the road but just 3-2 at home. History is on LA's side, as the Cards haven't defeated the Rams at Arizona since 2014. Rams get the "W."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 4:25 ET.

The Buffalo Bills were 13-3 last season and played in the AFC championship game. Along with KC, they came into the season as one of the favorites to be in that AFC title game again, but the Bills are just 7-5 as they visit Raymond James Stadium Sunday afternoon to face the 9-3 Bucs, the defending Super Bowl champs. After losing at home 14-10 to the Pats last Monday, the 7-5 Bills trail the 9-4 Pats in the AFC East. New England is on its bye in Week 14, so a win moves the Bills to 8-5 and ONE game back, but a loss drops them to 7-6, TWO games back. That's a BIG difference with just four games remaining. Meanwhile, the Bucs can clinch the NFC South title with a victory over Buffalo and a loss or tie by both the New Orleans Saints (5-7) and Carolina Panthers (5-7). The Saints visit the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday, while the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7).

Buffalo's Josh Allen was terrific in 2020 and has been pretty darn good in 2021, although it doesn't quite seem like it. He's completing 65.7% for 3,216 yards with 26 TDs and just 10 INTs, while rushing for 422 yards with three TDs. RB Singletary leads the Bills with 495 yards (4.6 YPC / 2 TDs). The running is middle-of-the-pack, averaging 116.7 YPG (14th). Allen has a trio of dangerous WRs in Diggs (71 catches / 7 TDs), Beasley (63 / 1 TD) and the ageless Sanders (39 / 4 TDs). Buffalo's offensive numbers "took a hit" in the 14-10 loss to the Pats but the team entered averaging 28.0 PPG, 5th-best in the NFL.

 
Tom Brady saw plenty of the Bill in his 20-years with the Pats, posting a 32-3 record in 35 starts to hold the NFL record for most career wins by a QB against one opponent. He will get his first look at the Bills while wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform on Sunday and comes in completing 68.3% for 3,771 yards with 34 TDs and 10 INTs. He leads the NFL's top-scoring offense, with the Bucs averaging 31.4 PPG. RB Fournette has replaced Jones as the lead back, rushing for 665 yards (4.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and catching 58 passes. WRs Godwin (82 / 5 TDs) and Evans (57 / 10 TDs) are terrific plus TE Gronk is back, with 33 catches and 6 TDs in just seven games.

Here's the rub. Brady plays like he's in his late-20s but Buffalo does own the No. 1 defense in the NFL in yards allowed (272.3 YPG). Most importantly, the Bills have surrendered the fewest passing yards per game this season (165.3) and the fewest passing TDs (eight). This could be seen as a "Make or Break" game for the Bills, while the Bucs will easily cruise to the NFC South title. That said, the Bucs are surely interested in the NFC's No. 1 seed and they are in a 'dog fight,' one game back of the 10-2 Cards and tied with the 9-3 Packers, so I won't dismiss Tampa Bay's motivation here. Still, I view this as a "Must Win" for Buffalo and so far this season, the Bills have bounced back with big wins after their first four losses (yet to lose back-to-back games). The scores in this bounce-back wins have been 35-0, 26-11, 45-17 and 31-16. 

Take the points but I'm calling for an outright Buffalo win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Bal/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

The Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion for the Ravens o in Week 12, holding on for a 20-19 win. Heading into Week 14, the AFC North looked like this, Baltimore was 8-4, Cincinnati 7-5 (off a humbling home loss to the Chargers), Pittsburgh 6-5-1 and the Browns 6-6 (Week 13 bye). The Steelers were the first AFC North team to play in Week 14, losing 36-28 Thursday night in Minnesota to fall to 6-6-1. The Bengals are set to host the 6-6 49ers in a 4:25 start and at 1:00 ET, the Ravens and Browns will meet in Cleveland. Baltimore just won 16-10 over visiting Cleveland in Week 12, a mere two weeks ago. Since the Browns had a bye last week, they now become the first NFL team in 30 years to play consecutive regular-season games against the same opponent. Seattle did it last in 1991.

The scheduling quirk has Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield feeling healthier as he's battled shoulder, foot, and knee injuries most of the season. The extended prep time can ONLY help the Browns, who have lost FOUR in a row against their division rival. Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. He rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. However, Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), completing 62.2% for 2,413 with only 11 TDs and 6 IMTs. In fairness, the Browns may own the worst receiving corps in the NFL. However, despite on-and-off issues/injuries to Chubb (867 yards / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Hunt (381 yards / 5.0 YPC / 5 TDs), the Browns do check in with the NFL's third-best running game in the NFL (147.1 YPG). Defensively, the Browns are allowing 22.3 PPG (12th).

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense in general, have become mired in a slump.  Jackson has just three TD passes and six  INTs, not to mention 13 sacks taken, in his last three games. The Ravens have scored just 61 points in their past four games (15.3 PPG.). Jackson does have 762 yards rushing (5.8 YPC), allowing the Ravens, despite the loss of RBs Dobbins and Edwards getting hurt before the season started, to match the Browns in avenging 147.1 YPG on the ground. WR Brown has 65 catches (6 TDs) and TE Andrews has 64 (6 TDs). The Baltimore defense is allowing 23/5 PPP (16th).

In the Week 12 meeting, while Baltimore won, Jackson was BRUTAL, passing for just 165 yards with four INTs. As for Mayfield, he did little, passing for 247 yards with one TD (no INTs). More notably, Chubb and Hunt both played but the Browns ran the ball just 17 times for 40 yards, more than 100 less than the team's season average. Like with Mayfield, Chubb and a healthy Hunt are available Sunday and the bye week has been a HUGE help. I also expect Jackson to bounce back, after his terrible three-game stretch (see above). Expect Cleveland  to "open the playbook" off its bye and for this contest to comfortably 'Go Over' the number. Weather forecast for Sunday in Cleveland says; sunny and in the high 40s. Perfect football weather.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* ONE & ONLY Game of the Year is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

Jason Garrett was given MORE than enough time as the Cowboys' head coach but finally Jerry said "enough was enough" Mike McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl with Green Bay, was hired in 2020 and executions were high. It was a tough season with COVID for all teams but Dallas' season looked over when Dak Prescott was lost in Week 5 to season-ending injury. At 2-3, Dallas would lose FOUR in a row and six of seven. However, at 3-9, a three-game winning streak actually gave them a chance at the division title (at 6-9), entering Week 17. The Cowboys lost and finished at 6-10. The 'winner' of the NFC 'Least' last season was Washington, led by Ron Rivera (former Carolina head coach who led the Panthers to a 15-1 record in 2016 and into the Super Bowl, where the Panthers lost to the Broncos), despite only a 7-9 record. The Washington defense gelled at the end of 2020, allowing just 15.9 PPG in winning FIVE of its last seven.

Dak Prescott has come back healthy in 2021 (he has only missed one game), completing 69.0% of his pases for 3,170 yards with 23 TDs and eight NTs (101.7 QB rating). He's supported by the RB duo of Elliott (765 yards / 4.4vYPC / 8 TDs) and Pollard (602 yards / 5.6 YPC / 2 TDs). 2nd-year WR Lamb (57 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) and veteran WR Cooper (46 catches / 13.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Schultz (52 catches / 11.2 YPC / 4 TDs) are his main targets. Dallas is averaging 416.3 YPG (1st) and 29.4 PPG (3rd), while the Dallas defense is allowing 22.3 PPG, more than a full TD less than last season (29.5).

Ryan Fitzpatrick was hurt before the start of the season, leaving the starting QB job to Taylor Heinicke, who played college ball at Old Dominion, one of the nation's top FB programs. However, Heinicke has proven he can be a starting QB in the NFL, completing 67.9% for 2,809 yards with 18 TDs and 11 INTs. He has added 289 rushing yards (on 5.6 YPC). RB Gibson leads the team with 820 rushing yards but just 3.9 YPC (5 TDs). The team's only WR with more than 30 receptions is McLaurin (61 / 13.2 YPC / 5 TDs), as RBs McKissic (43) and Gibson (31) rank second and third on the team (note: the duo has combined for just 4 TDs plus both average below 10.0 YPC). Washington's defensive surge down the stretch in 2020 led to high expectations for the unit this season but Washington opened 2-6, with the defense allowing 28.4 PPG.

However, coming into this contest, the Cowboys have been the more inconsistent team. After opening 6-1 SU (7-0 ATS), Dallas is 2-3 SU and ATS its last five, after breaking a two-game slide with a 27-17 win at hapless New Orleans (Saints have lost FIVE straight!). Meanwhile, after opening 2-6, Washington has won FOUR straight (4-0 ATS), as the defense has found its expected form, allowing only 17.5 PPG. However, the offense remains below average, scoring just 20.5 PPG (20th).

HUGE game here, as Dallas can pretty much 'salt away' the division with a win (would move to 9-4, with Washington falling to 6-7), but of course, a Washington "W" means the team closes within one game of Dallas (7-6 to 8-5). Dallas had dominated this series by winning SEVEN of eight but Washington won both meetings last season, 25-3 at home and 41-16 in Dallas last Thanksgiving.

Yes, Dallas is playing a THIRD straight road game but Prescott and the Dallas offense owns a HUGE edge over Heinicke and the Washington offense, averaging 29.4 PPG to Washington's 20.4 PPG. Checking the defensive numbers show that while Washington is holding opponents to just 17.5 PPG its last four, the Dallas 'D' has greatly improved this season (see above). Dallas has won SIX of its last eight in Washington and has also gone 5-1 against the spread on the road this season. It's Dak over Taylor, as Dallas puts itself in a great position to win its division and get a first round playoff game at home (note: Would need a lot of help to get the overall No. 1 seed). Play the road favorite, which wins going away! "How 'bout 'dem Cowboys!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion try by the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and with their 20-19 win, have turned the AFC North into a real 'horse race!' The Ravens stand at 8-4, while Cincy is at 7-5, after a crushing home loss to the Chargers. The Steelers are presently 6-5-1, plus the 6-6 Browns were idle last week. First-to-last is separated by just two games. Just as notable, Pittsburgh is just a half-game behind three 7-5 teams for one of three wild card berths. That makes this Thursday night visit to Minnesota, to say the least, VERY important.

As for the Vikings, they are second in the NFC North but at just 5-7, there is no realistic chance for them to catch the 9-3 Packers. That said, accepting that the 8-4 Rams will earn one of the three wild card berths, the Vikings only trail 6-6 Washington and San Francisco plus 6-7 Philadelphia. That means a "W" here by Minnesota, "keeps hope alive."

Let me do a little "compare and contrast," as I was asked to do in my Grade-7 thru Grade-12 years (no metal detectors or active-shooter drills to distract me). Big Ben and his two Super Bowl rings are headed to Canton but he is NOT the equal of Cousins here in 2021. Roethlisberger is completing 64.8% for 2,758 yards with 16 TDs and 6 INTs (QB rating of 90.6). As for Cousins, he's completing 68.4% for 3,353 yards with 25 TDs and just 3 INTs (QB rating of 106.3). Rookie Harris has 779 yards rushing on just 3.6 YPC with 5 TDs but the Steelers are averaging a pathetic 86.9 YPG on the ground (29th) on 3.7 YPC Minnesota RB Cook is one of the best RBs in the league but has struggled with injuries, missing three games and is questionable here. He's still rushed for 773 yards on 4.5 YPC with 4 TDs. Minnesota has managed 113.3 YPG on the ground (15th) on 4.2 YPC.

Pitt WRs Johnson has 76 catches (6 TDs) and Claypool 39 catches but just one TE. TE Freiermuth is underrated with 43 catches, six going for TDs, However, Cousins has two OUTSTANDING wide-outs in Jefferson (78 catches with 10 TDs) and Thielen (64 catches with 10 TDs), TE Conklin has 47 catches and 3 TDs. Defense was always a Pittsburgh strength but this year the team allows 23.8 PPG (21st), which is not all that much less than Minnesota's 25.4 PPG allowed.

A short week and a road game against a desperate Minnesota side is not what the doctor ordered for Big Ben and the Steelers. After back-to-back wins, including a 34-31 victory over Green Bay, Minnesota enters this contest having lost two in a row. Most recently it was a heart-breaking, last-second 29-27 setback at Detroit last weekend as a 7-point favorite, the Lions' first win of the season (that HAD to be a wake-up call!). Pittsburgh knows all about the Lions, as its home tie last month with 1-10-1 Detroit means even a win against the Vikings could leave Pittsburgh trailing the Chargers, Bengals and Bills in the wild-card standings by week's end.

After their last second win over the hated-Ravens last weekend, it would NOT be a stretch for the Steelers to have a predictable letdown in this one. Meanwhile, expect a full four-quarter, 110 percent effort from the Vikings. I'm laying the 'short' price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC West Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks find themselves in an unfamiliar position entering December. In the 10 seasons since the Seattle Seahawks drafted QB Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft, the franchise has been a regular contender, making the playoffs in EIGHT of the nine seasons prior to 2021 (played in two Super Bowls, winning one). However, when the 3-8 Seahawks play host to the 6-5 49ers on Sunday, they are little more than an also-ran with little to play for over the season's final six weeks. Conversely, the 49ers have won THREE in a row (while averaging 31.6 PPG) and currently own the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.

The 49ers' winning streak has come with a renewed commitment to run the ball. San Francisco has averaged 41.7 rushing attempts over the past three games to amass 178.3 YPG, as rookie RB Elijah Mitchell gained 133 of San Francisco's season-high 208 yards on the ground last week in a 34-26 victory against the visiting Minnesota Vikings. QB Jimmy G has been looking over his shoulder for most of the year but is completing 66.8% for 2,342 yards with 13 TDs and 6 INTs. However, the bad news for San Francisco is that the 49ers will be without leading receiver Deebo Samuel (groin), who has 56 catches (18.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and has also rushed for five TDs (203 yards on 8.1 YPC). "(Samuel has) been a big part of our offense, but I think we're in a spot right now that we can overcome that," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said. Methinks, he's "whistling past the graveyard!"

Wilson (64.9% with 12 TDs and just 3 INTs) got hurt in a Week 5 loss to the Rams and didn't return until a Nov 14th 17-0 loss at Green Bay. Wilson threw for just 161 yards in his return with two INTs. However, while Seattle has lost his last two starts as well, he hasn't been intercepted in 57 attempts and passed for 247 yards with two TDs (110.6 QB rating) in last Sunday's loss at Washington. With starting running back Chris Carson out for the season due to a neck injury and Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer both missing the last game, the Seahawks signed veteran Adrian Peterson to the practice squad on Wednesday. The 'Hawks are averaging only 92.5 YPG rushing but Carroll is hopeful that Penny will return vs the 49ers. The good news is that Wilson looked good last week and he has two excellent WRs in Lockett (50 / 3 TDs) and Metcalf (47 catches / 8 TDs). Seattle's defense has allowed a league-high 399.0 YPG but only 20.5 PPG, which ranks 7th.

However, here's the rub. The Seahawks won 28-21 at San Francisco in Week 4, their 13th victory in 15 tries against the 49ers, including SEVEN of nine since Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco in 2017. What's more, Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine as a home dog. Good enough for me. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 4:25 ET.

The 8-3 Baltimore Ravens lead the AFC North but have not been able to 'shake the 7-4 Bengals. The 6-6 Browns and 5-5-1 Steelers fill out the rest of the division. The Steelers looked like a contender at 5-3 but they welcome the hated-Ravens to Heinz Field on an 0-2-1 run. This is the first meeting between the two rivals in 2021, with the teams playing again at Baltimore in Week 18.

The Ravens enter December with the best record in the AFC, but their recent performances have been anything but pretty. Baltimore heads into the weekend a half-game ahead of the Patriots and Titans (both 8-4) for the top spot in the conference and. The playoff structure is the same as last season, meaning only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round playoff bye, so the Ravens certainly cannot afford many slip-ups over their final six games. QB Lamar Jackson (64.2% for 2,612 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs) is NOT having a vintage season, evidenced by him throwing a career-high four interceptions Sunday night in a 16-10 win over the Cleveland Browns. He also threw for a season-low 165 yards and was sacked multiple times for the ninth time in 10 games. However, he does lead the team in rushing (707 yards on 5.7 YPC) and is the reason the Ravens are No. 2 in the NFL averaging 150.7 YPG on the ground. His top receivers are WR Brown (60 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews ( 60 catches / 5 TDs). The defense is no longer a dominating unit (ala the Ray Lewis years) but Baltimore does rank 9th in allowing 21.8 PPG.

Big Ben is not the QB he once was but he can still be dangerous. He enters the game completing 64.6% for 2,522 yards with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 87.1 YPG (28th), although rookie RB Harris does have 708 yards with 5 TDs but averages only 3.6 YPC. He is also Pitt's second-leading receiver (52 catches / 2 TDs), behind WR Johnson (68 catches / 4 tDs). WR Claypool adds 37 catches (16.4 YPC / but just 1 TD) and TE Freiermuth adds 40 catches and a team-high 6 TDs.The offense averages only 20.4 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 24.3 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Pittsburgh is also just 29th in takeaways with only NINE.

The Ravens have averaged only 14 points over the last three games but have won two of them, while Pittsburgh's last three games have seen them tie Detroit 16-16 (Lions are 0-10-1 on the season), while allowing 41 points in back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Bengals. Jackson is a highly accomplished QB and this Pittsburgh defense may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Baltimore offense to shake its doldrums! The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against AFC North opponents, while the Steelers are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 following a SU loss. I'm on the road favorite.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET.

Washington was able to capture the NFC 'Least' last season with a 7-9 record but with Dallas jumping out to a 6-1 start and Washington opening 2-6, the Cowboys seemed like a 'lock' to win the NFC East in 2021. However, Dallas has lost THREE of four to fall back to 7-4, while Washington has won THREE in a row to reach 5-6. Washington looks to make it FOUR straight wins this week in Las Vegas against the Raiders, who are one of three AFC West teams that are currently 6-5. Kansas City, which has won FIVE straight division titles, leads the AFC West at 7-4, so clearly, that division is far from settled. Speaking of Dallas, the Raiders snapped a three-game skid by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 36-33 in overtime on Thanksgiving.

Washington eked out a 19-17 home win over the struggling 3-8 Seahawks this past Monday and now travels cross-country on a short week to play the team's final non-division game of the season (Washington's final five games will all come against NFC East rivals). Taylor Heinicke has proven he can be a starting QB in the NFL, completing 67.2% for 2,613 yards with 16 TDs and 10 INTs. He has added 279 rushing yards (on 5.7 YPC) with five TDs. RB Gibson leads the team with 712 yards (just 3.9 YPC) but Washington's running game has been solid, averaging 125.5 YPG (9th). However, the team's only WR with more than 25 receptions is McLaurin (58 / 13.6 YPC / 5 TDs), as RBs McKissic (43) and Gibson (26) rank second and third on the etam (note: the duo has combined for just 3 TDs plus both average below 10.0 YPC). Washington's defensive surge down the stretch in 2020 led to high expectations for the unit this season but the "D" has NOT delivered, allowing 25.6 PPG (25th of 32 teams!).

The Raiders piled up a season-high 509 total yards in their win at Dallas. Making that effort even more impe=ressive is the fact that the offense had been held to just 14.3 PPG in a three-game slide against the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. QB Carr has completed 67.3% for 3,414 yards (more than 800 more than Heinicke) but he's thrown for just one more TD pass (17-9 ratio). However, Carr remains underrated. Say what? How about this. He needs just 22 completions to reach 300 in each of his first eight NFL seasons, something only Peyton Manning has accomplished. Injuries have limited RB Jacobs, who entered this season off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, while scoring 19 TDs. He's missed two full games (and been limited cn a number of others), running for only 420 yards  on 3.8 YPC with six TDs. The bottom line is, Las Vegas has run for just 89.1 YPG (27th). WR Renfrow (64 catches  with 4 TDs) and TE Waller (53 catches / 2 TDs) are Carr's favorite targets but Waller left the Dallas game with a knee injury (status uncertain). The Jon Gruden (head coach) and Henry Ruggs (WR) "incidents" have really messed up the Raiders, who are trying to make the playoffs for the first time in FIVE seasons. A defense allowing 26.8 PPG (30th) hasn't helped.

All that said, this marks the ONLY home game for the Raiders in a 4-week span and don't forget, it's an extremely bad situational spot for Washington, traveling cross-country on a short week. With FIVE consecutive NFC games coming up to end the regular season, this seems like a perfect "let-down" spot for Washington. This really is a "must win'' for the Raiders as the 6-5 Chargers are on the road vs a very good Cincy team, plus 6-5 Denver is at 7-4 KC. The Raiders really need to get to 7-5 with a "W" in this one. A win basically means a cover at this pointspread but my bet says the Raiders win handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Sunday Featured O/U is on NYG/Mia Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins will host the New York Giants on Sunday and welcome the Giants to Hard Rock Stadium on a FOUR-game winning streak that has followed a SEVEN-game losing streak. The Giants 'limp' into Miami 4-7, after a 13-7 home win over the Eagles last Sunday but are just 1-4 on the road.

The Giants have put up some impressive defensive performances recently, allowing just 15.2 PPG over their last five games but the offense will be without QB Daniel Jones. He was not cleared for contact after suffering a neck strain during last week's win over the Philadelphia Eagles and head coach Joe Judge announced he will not play in Sunday's game on Friday. Jones has completed 64.3% of his passes for 2,428 yards with 10 TDs and 7 TDs this season plus has rushed for 298 yards (4.8 YPC) and two TDs. Without him, the Giants running game (90.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC) will be even more limited. Starting in Jones' place will be Mike Glennon, who went 0-5 as a starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020. His last win as a starting QB came during the 2017 season with the Chicago Bears. Glennon went 16-of-25 passing for 196 yards with a one TD and two INTs while playing in a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Oct. 10.

Miami has a poor running game as well averaging an even worse 80.2 YPG (31st) on 3.4 YPC. Much like the Giants, Miami's played excellent defense lately, allowing just 11.5 PPG during its four-game winning streak. However, the Miami offense has surged as of late, averaging 26.3 PPG. Tua is back healthy and the last two games, he's completed 84.4% for an average of 261.5 YPG passing with three TDs and just one INT in 64 attempts. Tua's top targets are rookie WR Waddle (77 catches / 4 TDs) and TE Gesicki (52 catches / 4 TDs).

Here's the rub. With both teams putting up strong defensive numbers, the opening Over/Under number was among the lowest this season. Now, with the news of Jones NOT playing, it has gone even lower. That may make some sense but I'm playing contrarian in this one. My feeling is that Glennon may just give this Giants offense a spark and while I've never been a big Tua fan, he sure has looked pretty good the last two weeks. Great weather in Miami gives this game an excellent chance to 'fly over' this super-low total.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* 'Battle of the QBs" is on the lA Chargers at 1:00 ET.

The 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals are positioned to make some noise in December, as except for the 8-3 Baltimore Ravens, every AFC team has at least four losses, with 12 at .500 or better. One of those 12 teams at .500 or better is the 6-5 LA Chargers, who remain in the playoff mix despite losing FOUR of their last six games. Baltimore leads the AFC North at 8-3, Cincy checks in at 7-4, the Browns at 6-5 and the Steelers at 5-5-1. Over in the AFC West, KC is 7-5, while the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders are all 6-5.

The Chargers come to Cincinnati, having NOT managed to win two straight games since October. The team's 28-13 loss to the Denver Broncos last Sunday was full of costly mistakes. QB Justin Herbert threw two TD passes but also had two INTs, one returned 70 yards for a TD and the other was in the end zone. That said, he's had a productive season, completing 66.0% for 3,230 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. RB Ekeler has developed into one of the NFL's better all-purpose players, rushing for 604 yards (4.5 YPC / 7 TDs) plus catching 51 passes for another 7 TDs. WRs Allen (81 catches but just two TDs) and Williams (50 catches / 7 TDs) are quite a pair, while TE Cook has 33 receptions for three TDs. The Chargers' defense has been a weak link, allowing 26.6 PPG (29th).

Speaking of QBs having productive seasons, Joe Burrow is proving he deserved to be the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2020. He's completing 69.3% for 2,875 yards with 22 TDs and 12 INTs. Chase (50 catches / 18.1 YPC / 8 TDs), Boyd (46 catches / 2 TDs) and Higgins (43 catches / 3 TDs) give him a trio of quality WRs plus TE Uzomah has caught 30 balls with 5 TDs. RB Joe Mixon is having a career season, running for 924 yards on 4.4 YPC with 11 TDs (he also has 26 catches with 2 TDs). Mixon enters off back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time since 2019, running for a career-high 165 and two TDs in the 41-10 rout of Pittsburgh last Sunday. The Bengals have worked hard for the past couple of years rebuilding their defense, and the efforts are paying off. Consider this. Heading into the 2021 season, the Bengals had allowed 28.4 PPG in 2018, 26.3 PPG in 2019 and 26.5 PPG in 2020. The 2021 edition is allowing 20.5 PPG, to rank 6th-best in the NFL!

There is plenty to like about Cincy but it's been SIX years since the Bengals have been in playoff contention. Off back-to-back dominating performances (beat the Raiders 32-13 and the Steelers 41-10), I believe they throw in a 'clunker' in this spot. The Chargers have been a better road team than home team in recent years and I believe Herbert, the No. 6 pick in 2020 draft, may just have "something to prove" in his matchup with Burrow. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFC 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The Rams lost in Green Bay to the Packers 32-18 in last year's Divisional Round but much has changed as the Rams venture back to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon for this Week 12 contest. I'll get to those changes in a bit but first, let me set the stage. The Rams opened the season 7-1 through Week 8 but were then upset by the Tiatns at home, who were playing without Henry. They then lost 31-10 at San Francisco in Week 10. A Week 11 bye likely came at a good time. The Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints (game was played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida) but rebounded to win their next SIX games, before the Rodgers 'vaccination fiasco!' Rodgers sat out the 13-7 loss at KC but returned in a 17-0 win over Seattle, before the Packers lost 34-31 at Minnesota last Sunday. The Packers are 8-3 and battling the 9-2 Cardinals for the NFL's No. 1 seed.

Returning to the Rams and the team's "new look." Matthew Stafford is the QB, not Jared Goff. Stafford is completing 67.7% for 3,14 yards with 24 TDs and 8 INTs (QB rating of 106.1 would be a career-best). The running game is of little help (97.9 YPG ranks 24th). WR Kupp (85 catches / 10 tDs) has blossmed into a star and while Woods (45 / 4 TDs) has been lost for the year, second-year WR Jeferson has 30 catches (16.2 YPC / 3 TDs), after catching just 19 last season (he played all 16 games). Then there's the signing of OBJ, who HC Sean McVay says will be a significant part of the offense on Sunday. LA also recently added Von Miller to the defense to join Aaron Donald. The defense has been dominating so far (22.7 PPG ranks 14th) but I expect it to really improve down the stretch.

Rodgers is again putting up outstanding numbers (66.8% for 2,571 yards with 21 TDs and 4 INTs) but the team is 1-2 since his vaccination status became an issue. Jones has run for 541 yards (4.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and is second on the team with 37 catches (4 TDs). Dillon has added 474 yards (4.4 YPC / 2 TDs) but Green Bay averages only 108.0 YPG on the ground (20th). WR Adams has 72 catches (13.6 YPC and 5 TDs) but the rest of the team's WRs have had health issues limiting their production, The defense has been excellent, allowing 19.5 PPG (5th).

Stafford averaged 309.6 passing YPG over the Rams' first eight games with 22 TDs and 4 INTs interceptions as the team went 7-1. However, in losses to the Titans and 49ers, he's averaged 268.5 yards with two TDs and four INTs. On the GB side, Rodgers did not practice Wednesday but is expected to play Sunday, although he admitted to being in significant discomfort. Meanwhile, the Packers OL is still missing 2020 All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari and just lost Elgton Jenkins to a season-ending knee injury.

Despite Rodgers' excellent stats (see above), the Packers are averaging just 22.1 PPG (18th), while the Rams check in at 27.1 PPG (7th). Stafford is just 3-7 at Lambeau Field but of course, those games were with the putrid Lions. The key to being successful in the NFL (and in handicapping it!), is about making adjustments from week to week. One of the best in the business in doing that is Rams' head coach Sean McVay. Winning at Lambeau is tough but off back-to-back losses (and coming off a bye week), the "time is right" for the Rams to get their season back on track!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* featured Sunday O/U is on LAC/Dev Over at 4:05 ET.

The 6-4 LA Chargers are a half-game back of the 7-4 KC Chiefs in the AFC West. They are in Denver this Sunday to face the 5-5 Denver Broncos who are in last-place, a half-game back of the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders, who won Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. Sunday's game will be the first time Denver head coach Vic Fangio will coach against his former assistant Brandon Staley. Fangio was the defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears when he hired Staley to be his outside linebackers coach in 2017. They were together for three seasons, the last with Denver in 2019. Staley has led Los Angeles into playoff contention in his first year.

Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 382 yards with three TDs and one INT in last Sunday night's 41-37 win over Pittsburgh. The Chargers led 27-10 into the 4th quarter but actually fell behind, before Herbert connected on a 53-yard TD pass with just over two minutes to go. RB Austin Ekeler ran for 50 yards (2 TDs) and caught six passes for 65 yards (2 TDs). He is the ONLY player in the AFC with 500 or more rushing yards (573) and 400-plus receiving yards (405).  He has run for 7 TDs and caught 6 TD passes. Herbert has veteran WR Allen as a possession receiver (74 catches / 10.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (46 / 15.3 YPC / 7 TDs) as more of a big-play threat.

Denver opened the season 3-0, then lost FOUR straight, only to win back-to-back games before losing at home to the Eagles 30-13 last Sunday. I'm not sure Denver has finally found its next QB but Bridgewater is completing 69.2% for 2,389 yards with 14 TDs and just 5 INTs. The 14 TD passes is one shy of his career-high and he's thrown just one INT in his last four games (123 attempts). The RB duo of Gordon (522 yards / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and rookie Williams (514 yards / 5.0 YPC / 1 TD) gives the offense some balance, while WRs Sutton (43 / 14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Patrick (37 / 14.1 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Fant (42 / 3 TDs) make up a decent receiving corp.

Here's the contrast in this game. The Chargers average 26.0 PPG but allow 26.5, while the Broncos average 20.0 PPG and allow just 18.3. Which team controls the flow and pace of this game? I say the Chargers, who have won FIVE consecutive AFC West games after dropping nine straight. Four of Herbert's 13, 300-yard passing games have come against AFC West teams and he has thrown for 17 TDs and without a SINGLE interception in his last six starts against a division opponent.

A big note of concern is obviously on the defensive side of the ball for LA, as the 37 points the Chargers conceded last weekend was the third time this season the team has allowed more than 30 points (perhaps more surprisingly, the team has won two of those three games. The Broncos' offense had the week off because of their bye and with the extra time to prepare, I expect a strong performance here from the offense against a vulnerable LA defense. Look for this total to 'fly' over the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals will welcome the 5-4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. The 7-3 Ravens lead the tightly-contested AFC North, with the Bengals, Steelers and 6-5 Browns in hot pursuit. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a definitive win at Las Vegas (32-13) last week, while Pittsburgh saw a five-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday night in a 41-37 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers.

Many felt "Big Ben" was way past his prime but he's completed 65.3% for 2.259 yards with 13 TDs and just 4 INTS (he has started 9 of 10 games). He no longer has a WR like Antonio Brown settling for WRs Johnson (59 / 2 TDs) and Claypool (34 / 15.5 YPC / just 1 TD) plus TE Freiermuth (36 / 5 TDs). Rookie RB Harris has 49 catches (2nd-most) and has added 685 yards and 5 TDs on the ground. However, he's averaging just 3.6 YPC and the team runs for ONLY 90.7 YPG (27th) on 3.7 YPC.

Cincy QB Burrow was limited to 10 games as rookie (lost to an injury) but through 10 games, has pretty much duplicated his strong play as a rookie. He enters the team's 11th game completing 68.3% (65.3% LY) for 2,645 yards (2,688) with a 21-11 ratio (13-5). Burrow threw the ball just 18 times for 148 yards (career-low) vs the Raiders but he had three TD passes, as the Bengals leaned on RB Joe Mixon and their defense (Raiders were held to 2678 total yards and 13 FDs) to blow the game open in the second half. Mixon (759 yards on 4.2 YPC and 9 TDs) averaged just 2.4 yards on 11 carries in the first half but then averaged 6.5 on 19 carries in the second. His 30 carries were a season high. It was a gritty rebound from the two previous weeks when he rushed for 64 yards against the Browns and just 33 against the Jets as the Bengals lost both games.

The Bengals are more balanced this year with second-year QB Joe Burrow getting all of his 'weapons' involved, from rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase (42 for 867 yards, eight TDs) to experienced RB Joe Mixon. Then there is a defense that has cut its points allowed from 26.5 PPG in 2020 to 21.6 in 2021 (ranked 9th). Burrow gets to face an injury-plagued Pittsburgh's defense that allowed the Chargers to put up 533 yards against last Sunday, the most the Steelers have allowed since the 2013 season!

The Bengals have won the last two meetings with the Steelers, including the blowout victory two months ago in Pittsburgh. Prior to that, the Steelers had won 11 straight dating back to 2014. Cincinnati is trying to sweep Pittsburgh for the first time since 2009 and is positioned to win a third in a row against Pittsburgh, something that hasn't happened since the late 1980s, when the Bengals won SIX straight over the Steelers from 1988-90.

It's a "new day" in Cincinnati and somewhere Paul Brown is smiling. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Sitautional Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

My 10* Turkey Shoot is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are both dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thanksgiving night in New Orleans plus both are trying to "regain their footing." The Bills were in the AFC  championship game last season (13-3 regular season) but after a surprising upset at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, won their next FOUR games, averaging 39.0 per contest. However, a 34-31 loss to Titans began a slide in which Buffalo has lost THREE of five and at 6-4, find themselves a half-game back of the 7-4 Patriots in the AFC East. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints then lost back-to-back games by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). Last Sunday, the Saints lost 40-29  at Philly, for their THIRD straight loss.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his place among the elite QBs last season and through the Bill's first seven games, had a 17-3 TD to INT ratio. However, over the last three games (two losses), he has four TDs and five INTs. He's still having a good season (65.7% / 2,811 yards / 21-8 ratio with 340 rushing yards and 3 TDs) but it's time for him to step up. The running game is nothing special (118.8 YPG ranks 12th) but Allen has a strong cast of receivers. Diggs leads the way 60 / 6 TDs0 and possession receiver Beasley has 57 catches  but a YPC average of only 8.8. Samuels has 33 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and E Knox (28 / 5 TDs) complete the major contributors. However, Beasley's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The defense has remained solid throughout the ups and downs, allowing 17.6 PPG (2) and just 283.7 YPG (1st).

Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he had two straight interception-free games in his first two games as the Saints' starter, the Saints lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. He threw three TDs at Philly (team's third straight loss) but had two INTs and a modest 214 passing yards. The Saints have played the last two weeks without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) remains questionable for this game and so is his backup Ingram, who ran for 88 yards at Philly (was limited in practice this week).

The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 203.4 yards per game through the air (26th). It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. The Saints have won the last five meetings with the Bills, although the last meeting came back in 2017. However, New Orleans is 3-0 all-time on Thanksgiving and is playing on the holiday for the THIRD time in four seasons. Sure, Buffalo is the better team but so were the defending champion Bucs when they lost 36-27 back in Week 8. BTW...Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do to win in the NFL was to "pick the better team?" The Saints have lost three games in a row for the first time since 2016 but take notice of this trend. The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 Week 1 shocker over the Packers and have been trading ATS wins and losses every single week. My bet says this trend (or pattern, or whatever you want to refer to it as) continues Thanksgiving night with the home dog 'barking' VERY loudly. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:20 ET.

The 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to LA's SoFi Stadium for an important game with the 5-4 LA Chargers. Pittsburgh trails 6-3 Baltimore in the AFC North, with 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland still 'hanging around' As for the Chargers, they are tied with the Raider, a half-game back of the first-place Chiefs (6-4) in the AFC West, while the Broncos lurk at 5-5. Clearly, this is a game BOTH teams desperately want (and NEED) to win!

The Steelers opened 1-3 but had won FOUR in a row, before playing to a tie last Sunday, against winless Detroit. Big Ben was supposedly washed up but he had completed 65.6% for 1,986 yards with 10 TDs and just 4 INTs through eight games, before missing last week because of COVID. Mason Rudolph got the start and was 30 of 50 for 242 yards with one TD and one INT (update to come). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 646 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 4TDs) plus has added 44 catches (2nd-most on the team), with 2 TDs. WR Johnson lead witch 52 catches (3 TDs) and TE Freiermuth has 32 catches and a team-high 4 TDs. With Smith-Schuster on IR, the Steelers are hoping WR Claypool (29 catches) will be able to play (he is questionable). The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 PPG (26th) but as always are playing good defense, allowing 20.6 PPG (8th).

QB Justin Herbert had a good rookie season and opened the current season like gangbusters. His YTD numbers still look impressive (65.4% for 2,545 yards with 19 TDs and 7 iNTs) but he's really fallen off, as the Chargers are 1-3 after a 4-1 start. In those three losses, he completed just 55.6% for an average of 204.3 YPG with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. RB Ekeler is a terric all-purpose player, rushing for 523 yards (4.7 YPC with 5 TDs), while catching 39 passes for 4 TDs. WRs Allen (65 / 2 TDs) and Wiliams (41 / 6 TDs) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (28 / 2 TDs) is solid.  

Here's the deal. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin didn't rule out the possibility that Roethlisberger could play Sunday, but the game plan this week will revolve around backup Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in its last five games (4-0-1) but a closer look reveals the Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, needing referee-aided assistance to nip the Bears two weeks ago at home on MNF and this past Sunday, couldn’t even beat the winless Lions playing to a comical 16-16 tie. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 PPG in their last four home contests. The Chargers go on the road for the next two games, so a "W" here is almost a 'MUST!' I got down early on LA (-3.5) but the line jumped with the news that Big Ben may not play. He may and if so, the line will (should) come back down. Either way, my play is on the Chargers.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:25 ET.

The Cowboys were just 6-10 last season (5-11 ATS) but enter this Week 11 matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs at 7-2 and an 8-1 ATS mark. The Chiefs have struggled on and off in 2021 but THREE straight wins have them at 6-4 and atop the AFC West, a division they've won in each of the last five seasons. However, KC's ATS woes have continued, as they are just 3-7, after ending the 2020's regular season on a 1-7 ATS run.

Dak Prescott has come back healthy in 2021 (he did miss one game), completing 70.3% of his pases for 2,341 yards with 20 TDs and just five INTs (110.8 QB rating). He's supported by the RB duo of Elliott (663 yards / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and Pollard (445 yards / 5.4 YPC / 1 TD). 2nd-year WR Lamb (47 catches / 15.4 YPC / 6 TDs) and veteran Cooper (44 catches / 13.3 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Schultz (38 catches / 11.5 YPC / 3 TDs) are his main targets. Dallas is averaging 31.6 PPG (1st) but just got the bad news that Amari Cooper was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. The Dallas defense is allowing 21.7 PPG, more than a full TD less than last season (29.5).

Mahomes had played like 'Superman' the last few seasons (except for last year's Super Bowl) but has had an up-and-down season (for him!). Note that he's completing 65.8% for 2,940 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs (not exactly 'chopped liver!'). The running game is less-than-average (110.5 YPG ranks 18th) but in WR Hill (75 catches / 8 TDs) and TE Kelce (62 catches / 5 TDs), the Chiefs own arguably the best WR/TE combination in the NFL. The offense averages 26.2 PPG (10th), down from 29.6, 28.2 and 35.3 the last three seasons. Defense has never been a KC strength and the Chiefs are allowing 24.1 PPG (20th).

Yes, Mahomes threw for season-highs of 406 yards and five TDs last Sunday but the defense has been the 'key' to the team's three-game winning streak, allowing just 12.7 PPG. My bet says the once-struggling Chiefs "have turned a corner" and are a BARGAIN at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* featured Sunday O/U play is on Cin/LV Under at 4:05 ET.

The Bengals (5-4) and Raiders (5-4) were each atop their respective divisions a few weeks ago but both enter this contest in Las Vegas on two-game losing streaks. The Bengals took over first place in the AFC North with a dominating 41-17 win at Baltimore on Oct 24 but they followed their best performance of the season (520 total yards) with two of their two worst outings, falling 34-31 to the last-place Jets before getting blown out at home 41-16 by the last-place Browns on Nov 7. The Raiders also opened up 5-2 and appeared to be a threat to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West. However, a 23-16 loss to the Giants followed by a 41-14 setback to the visiting Chiefs on Sunday have dropped the Raiders to third place in the division.

Cincinnati had its bye last week and head coach Zac Taylor said,"You're going to see a good football team after this bye. We've got a lot of season left in front of us. We're going to learn from this, move on, and be a team to be reckoned with here in November and December." Joe Burrow is completing 68.2% for 2,497 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.6 QB rating). Chase has developed into a first-class WR (44 catches / 19.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and TE Uzomah (28 / 5 TDs) has become a valued target. RB Mixon (636 yards / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) is on pace for a 1,200-yard season (17 games) but the Bengals average just 97.1 YPG on the ground (24th). Despite the D's last two games, Cincy enters allowing 22.6 PPG (11th).

Las Vegas QB Carr (67.7% for 2,826 yards with 15 TDs and 8 INTs) is also having a solid season but his running game is even worse than Cincy's. No RB has even reached 300 yards, with Raiders averaging only 85.0 YPG rushing (28th). TE Waller (44 / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper' plus WR Renfrow leads with 52 catches (4 TDs). However, he averages only 9.5 YPC and has only two TDs. Ruggs (19.5 YPC) and Edwards (20.7 YPC) are the team's deep threats but the team just released Ruggs after he was charged with four felonies and a misdemeanor for his role in a crash that killed a woman and her dog earlier this month. The Las Vegas defense has not played well (25.6 PPG / 26th).

Despite the recent slumps, both the Bengals and Raiders remain in contention in a tight conference that features SEVEN teams with five wins, FOUR more with six and only Tennessee (8-2) having created any space with the competition. Neither team has much of a running game so at first blush, maybe the play is over. However, in an ULTRA-important contest like this, these types of games are usually played "closer to the vest." I noted that the Cincy D has been shredded the last two games but in the team's first seven games, the Bengals D allowed just 18.3 PPG. I'm playing the under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT) but then won FIVE of six. However, they've lost TWO of their last three, including 22-10 at Miami on a Thursday night game in Week 10. Baltimore is currently 6-3 but the AFC North also features 5-3-1 Pittsburgh, 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland. The Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost FOUR in a row. Chicago 'lives' in the NFC North, a division that's dominated by the 8-2 Packers and embarrassed by the 0-8-1 Lions.

Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the season, the Ravens have still managed to lead the NFL in rushing. However, the Dolphins shut them down a week a go Thursday, holding them to 94 yards rushing. Still, the Ravens enter this game No. 1 with 154.1 YPG. QB Lamar Jackson is the key, as he's run for 639 yards (6.0 YPC / 2 TDs), while also completing 64.4% for 2,447 yards with 14 TDs and eight INTs. His top receivers are WR Brown (52 / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews (48 / 4 TDs). Jackson missed Wednesday's practice due to illness, but Harbaugh said it was not COVID-related and he practiced on Friday (all systems go). Baltimore's defense no longer resembles the "Ray Lewis era" unit, allowing 24.1 PPG (22nd) but the rush D is STRONG, allowing 88.2 YPG to rank 4th.

Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields is a 'work in progress' and still has a LONG way to go. He completes just 59.4% for 1,282 yards (Bears rank dead-last in passing yards) with 4 TDs and 8 INTs. The Bears did get RB Montgomery back in their last game and he gained 63 yards rushing vs Pittsburgh. When healthy, he's a solid back but the Bears are not likely to be very successful against Baltimore's rush D (see above). WR Mooney (26 / 2 TDs) leads in receiving as Robinson, who caught 92 and 102 pases the last two seaons, has 'faded away'with 30 catches (one TD.

Chicago's offense ranked 30th in scoring (16.7 PPG) and 31st in total offense (280.7 YPG). To add insult to injury, both Mooney and Ronbison are banged up and listed as questionable for ths game. Balitore really NEEDS a win to get back on track and the Ravens shouldn't even be a "little worried" about Chicago coming off a bye.The last time the Bears won following a bye, Marc Trestman was in his first season as their coach. Chicago beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field in 2013, after Aaron Rodgers fractured his left collarbone being sacked on the Packers' first series. Since that victory, the Bears have dropped SEVEN straight after off weeks! Baltinmore wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints have lost two games in a row by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). The 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles welcome the Saints to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday coming off perhaps their best game of the season, a 30-13 victory at Denver last Sunday.

Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he has had two straight interception-free games as a starter, the Saints have lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. The Saints played last week without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday but he has been ruled out for Sunday. The team's leading WRs are Harris (17.0 YPC / 2 TDs) and Callaway (5 TDs) but both have just 24 catches. The Saints are playing excellent defense, allowing 19.8 PPG (7th).

Philly QB Jalen Hurts is having a very good season, completing 62.2% for 2,159 yards with 13 TDs and 5 INTs plus has run for 549 yards on 5.7 YPC with 5 TDs. While Kamara is out for New Orleans, Philly's Miles Sanders (300 yards on 4.8 YPC and 3 TDs) has missed the last three games because of an ankle injury. However, all signs point to him playing. Heisman winner Smith has 42 catches on 14.4 YPC with 4 TDs.

The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 202.2 yards per game through the air. It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. Now, Kamara is out. In contrast, Hurts is coming into his own, Sanders is back and the Eagles are averaging 32.7 PPG over their last three games.

The 'fly in the ointment' is that while Philly is 4-2 on the road, the Eagles are 0-4 at home. In fact, the Eagles have lost their last five home games, last winning in Week 14 last season. What team did the Eagles beat last year in Week 14? None other than the Saints (24-21). I'm on the Eagles in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots didn't fare too well in Year 1 of the post-Brady era, going 7-9.  Adding insult to injury, it could have set too well with the entire organization that TB 12 led the Bucs to a Super Bowl title. The Pats opened the current season 1-3 but they have put their early-season woes behind them with a FOUR-game winning streak. The 6-4 Patriots have outscored their opponents 150-50 during the four-game streak and visit Atlanta just a half-game behind the 7-3 Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-5 but are coming off a PUTRID performance last Sunday, losing 43-3 at Dallas. The beating was so one-sided that Atlanta trailed 36-3 at halftime, the 33-point deficit representing the franchise's largest at the break since trailing the Johnny Unitas-led Baltimore Colts 35-0 back on Nov 12, 1967 (FYI...Atlanta joined the nFL in 1966!). The Falcons are back on the field just four days after that beatdown but Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said,"It's a good thing we play Thursday," When you play a game like that, you wanna move on as quickly as possible, so I'm kinda glad we're playing Thursday."

A good part of the reason for New England's success revolves around the quick rise of rookie QB Mac Jones.On the season, Jones has completed 69.0% for 2,333 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. Jones passed for a career-best three TDs (zero INTs) and completed 19 of 23 for 198 yards on Sunday as New England steamrolled the Cleveland Browns 45-7. He's accomplished all this despite a so-so receiving corps and a running game that is averaging only 114.5 YPG (16). The Pats' lone RB of note (Harris has 547 yards and 7 TDs) was out last week (concussion) and was limited in practice on Tuesday (questionable for Thursday). Still, Jones leads an offense averaging 27.5 PPG (6th) plus as always, Belichick's defense is doing just fine (17.7 PPG allowed ranks 2nd).

QB Matt Ryan no longer has much of a receiving corps plus a running game that's worse than New England's (67.7 YPG ranks 29th) but per usual, he's on pace for another 4,000 yard season (he's topped 4,000 yards the last 10 seasons). A bright spot for Atlanta's passing game is Florida rookie TE Pitts, who leads the team with 40 catches. There are NO bright spots on a defense allowing 29.2 PPG (31st).

Simply put, this is a mismatch 'on paper!' The Pats are 4-0 on the road and the Falcons are 0-3 at home. Jones is in uncharted territory here, as this is a pretty large spread to cover on the road on a short week. Not all of the current Atlanta team was around when the Falcons blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead in that infamous Super Bowl loss to the Pats in the 2016 season but there remains a deep-seated hatred for this opponent. I'm grabbing the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

Pick your poison. The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 on the road this season, while the San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 at home. However, San Francisco has beaten the Rams FOUR consecutive times (more on these trends at the end). The 3-5 49ers are in desperate need of a win when they welcome the 7-2 the Rams to Levi's Stadium on Monday night at Santa Clara, Ca. As for the Rams, they are battling the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West lead and got some huge help Sunday when the Murray-less Cards were routed 34-10 by the Panthers, dropping them to 8-2.

The Rams are coming off a 28-16 home loss to the Tennessee Titans and one of LA's two TDs came with 24 seconds left to make the outcome look closer than it was. QB Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the season (one TD / 2 INTs and a QB rating of 71.0) and accepted blame for the setback. Head coach Sean McVay is looking for a bounce-back performance. "We have to play cleaner football," McVay said. "I want to see what we learn from our response. The last time we had a setback, I liked how we responded." Expect Stafford to bounce back. In his previous three games, he had thrown for 10 TDs and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 128.7, 117.3 and 127.3! He's completing 68.2% on the season for 2,771 yards with 23 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 111.0 / his career mark is 91.0). LA's running game doesn't get help much but even though vet WR Woods (45 / 12.4 / 4 TDs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in practice this week, Stafford still has plenty of 'weapons.' Fellow WR Kupp leads the NFL with 74 catches and has 10 TDs (he's caught five-plus passes in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL). WR Jeferson (27 / 16.0 / 3 TDs) is MORE than capable of stepping up and who knows, maybe OBJ will like the 'lights' of Hollywood. TE Higbee (35 catches / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper. The LA defense hasn't quite dominated but it's still one of the most-feared in the NFL.

Jimmy Garoppolo (65.3% / 1,754 yards / 8 TDs and 5 INTs) was considered the team's 'savior' when he led the 49ers to the Super bowl at the end of the 2019 season but he seems to be regularly on the 'hot seat' these days. That said, he has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, with QB ratings of over 100.0 in both. Like the Rams, the 49ers don't have much of a running game and last week ran for just 39 yards, the lowest total in the Kyle Shanahan era. WR Samuel has 49 catches (18.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and when healthy, TE Kittle (25 catches / 13.1 YPC / 1 TD) is among the very best in the league. He did return last week (six catches for 101 yards with his first tD catch of the year) but let's wait and see.

Yes, the 49ers have won FOUR straight against the Rams but how can one ignore that since the start of the 2020 season, San Francisco is just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in home games? Yes, the lone "W" came against the Rams last October but the Rams are the MUCH better team and are coming off a humiliating home loss. A bounce back seems highly likely and now, with Arizona's loss, the Rams have a chance to join the Cards atop the NFC West. Stafford has found a 'home' with the Rams and enters as the only QB to throw for 250-plus yards in all nine games. Taking him over Jimmy G is a 'no-brainer' plus the Rams own the better defense. Lay the small points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured Sunday NFL O/U is on Min/LAC Under at 4:05 ET.

The 3-5 Minnesota Vikings come into Sunday's game with the 5-3 LA Chargers, enduring a season's worth of frustarting losses. Their five losses have been by a total of just 18 points, including two OT losses. The Chargers know the feeling, as they had a similar start last season. Their first five losses were by a combined 19 points and also had two ending in overtime. The bottom line is, as the teams take the field Sunday at So-Fi Stadium, Minnesota's season is 'on the brink,' while the Chargers are tied with the Raiders atop the AFC West, with KC and Denver lurking just one game back at 5-4.

Minnesota has also had to deal with five players on the COVID-19 list, including two starters. Safety Harrison Smith will miss Sunday's game, but center Garrett Bradbury could return. There is also RB Dalvin Cook, who is facing a lawsuit from a former girlfriend, who alleges the running back assaulted her during an altercation at his home last year. Cook ran for over 1,500 yards last season with 16 TDs plus caught 44 passes. However, in six games this season, he has 554 yards rushing on 4.8 YPC with only two TDs and a mere 15 receptiosn. QB Kirk Cousins is once again putting up impressive numbers (68.2% / 2,140 yards 16 TDs and two INTs), as he has two excellent WRs in Jefferson (46 / 13.7 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (45 / 7 TDs). However, Minnesota is averaging a middle-of-the-pack 24.3 PPG (17th). A big failing is the team is converting just 35.7% on third downs (25th of 32 teams).

The Chargers have a young and exciting QB in Justin Herbert (66.1% / 2,350 yards / 18 TDs and 6 INTs), who just broke out of a two-game slump that saw him 'earn' QB ratings of 67.8 and 66.7 in his previous two games. He completed a career-high 84.2% of his passes against the Eagles (LA won 27-24), throwing for 356 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (123.2 QB rating). RB Ekeler (479 yards / 4.7 YPC / 5 TDs / plus 36 catches and 3 TDs) is 10th in the league in scrimmage yards and has five 100-yard games this season. Like Cousins, Herbert has an excellent WR duo in Allen (57 catches / 2 TDs) and Williams (37 catches / 15.5 YPC / 6 TDs).

Both teams have so-so defenses but I do NOT see this being a high-scoring game. While non-conference games aren't always the most intense on the defensive side of the ball, I believe each side will be doubling down on that end in this one. LA can't afford a loss here in the ultra-competitive AFC West plus Minnesota just continues to find ways to underachieve. This one stays UNDER the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans began the season with what was then considered a shocking upset, as the Cardinals came to Nashville and won 38-13. However, Arizona would win its first seven games and currently stands at 8-1, owners of the NFL's best record. The Titans would lose a shocker in Week 4, 27-24 at the NY Jets and found themselves at 2-2. However, the Titans have won FIVE in a row since (5-0 ATS), including wins over the Bills, Chiefs and last week the Rams, even without RB Henry. The Saints home opener in Week 1 was moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida but they responded with a dominating 38-3 win over the Packers, handing Aaron "I'm immunized" Rodgers the worst loss of his professional career. With Brees retired, Jameis Winston was the new starting QB and while he was completing under 60% of his passes and was not racking up too many passing yards, he had a 14-3 TD-to-INT ratio and a QB rating of 102.8. The Saints got the better of the Bucs in Week 8 (36-27) but Winston suffered a season-ending injury. Trevor Siemian took over during the Tampa Bay game and started last week's 27-25 loo to the Falcons.

The Saints visit Nashville at 5-3, one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South and "right in" the battle for an NFC wild card berth. Siemian threw for 159 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) vs Tampa Bay and then for 249 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) against Atlanta. Much like Winston learned, the Saints receiving corps nowhere near matches recent editions. It also doesn't help that RB Kamara (530 yards on 3.6 YPC with 3 TDs), hasn't played up to his standards of the last couple of seasons (Kamara does lead the team in receptions with 32 and 4 TDs. The Saints are slightly better than average in scoring (25.1 PPG ranks 12th) but its defense has been VERY good. New Orleans is allowing 19.4 PPG (5th) on 347.0 YPG (11th).

RB Henry (937 yards and 10 TDs in eight games) was carrying the Tennessee offense and in the team's first game without him Sunday night in LA vs the Rams, the Titans used Adrian Peterson, D'Onta Foreman and Jeremy Nichols. However, they combined for just 69 rushing yards(2.7 YPC), which was almost 50 fewer than Henry was averaging. QB Tannehill didn't help much (143 yards with one TD and one INT) but the Titans were able to win 28-16! In just two snaps 20 seconds apart, Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard forced Matthew Stafford into a pair of terrible decisions. The stunning sequence ended with Byard sprinting to the end zone carrying the second of Stafford's back-to-back interceptions. Despite gaining just 194 yards vs the Rams, the defense, which forced field goals at the end of three long drives, led the Titans to a 12-point win as a TD underdog!

I'm NOT counting on Tennessee getting so 'lucky' again vs the Saints. New Orleans has the stingiest run defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game (73.8) and yards per carry (3.2). Only one of its eight opponents (Washington) has rushed for as many as 100 yards. Tannehill (just 11 TDs and 8 INTs on the season) NEEDS a dominating running game to be effective and that's NOT likely. Siemian has done fine (0 INTs is sweet) and Saints receivers dropped several of Siemian's passes that were catchable. "(Siemian had a) pretty calm demeanor, especially in those final drives after we fell behind," Saints head coach Sean Payton said. "He made enough plays and got us back in the game. He got us in and out of a number of different plays. I think we could have helped him more with some of the playmakers."

Tennessee is 7-2, giving them a comfortable THREE-game lead in the AFC South, while as noted earlier, the Saints are in a dog fight for postseason eligibility. This may come as a shock to some but New Orleans is 23-5 SU on the road since the start of the 2018 season, the best away mark in the NFL during this span. Of course I'm taking the points but I'm sending out an "Upset Alert!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ws FB team at 1:00 ET.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come off their bye week and visit the Washington Football Team in a rematch of last year's NFC wild-card game. The Buccaneers won 31-23 that day en route to the Super Bowl, but it wasn't easy. An unknown QB named Taylor Heinicke got the start for Washington and passed for 306 yards and a TD while running for another. That performance led to a two-year contract and then Ryan Fitzpatrick's injury in Week 1 this season led to Heinicke becoming the starter. As for his counterpart Tom Brady, he held on to his job too and will line up against Heinicke once again.

The Bucs are 6-2 and in a battle for the NFC's top seed with the 6-2 Cowboys, 7-2 Packers and Rams plus the 8-1 Cards. Brady's been superb once again, completing 67.3% for 2,650 yards with 25 TDs and 5 INTs. The Bucs lead the NFL in scoring (32.5 PPG) and are No. 2 in YPG at 423.1. The Tampa defense has been middle-of-the road, allowing 22.9 PPG (13th).

Defense has been a 'bad' word in DC this season, as Washintion's strong defensive play down the stretch allowed them to win the NFC East and get a chance vs Brady and the Bucs in the wild card game. Expectations for the team's defense were high entering the season but Washington is allowing 28.4 PPG (29th) on 389.4 YPG (30th). Heinicke's play has been up and down, as he's completing 63.9% for 1,928 yards with 11 TDs and 9 INTs, while running for 232 yards (6.4 YPC) and one TD. Washington's skill position players are average at best (I'm being kind) and despite averaging 348.6 YPG (16th), the offense is only producing 19.5 PPG (25th).

Considering all Brady has accomplished, it's not surprising he has fared very well with an extra week to prepare for an opponent. In 21 starts following a regular-season bye, he's 16-5. Of course, the Bucs will have to win by double digits to cover in this one. Brady and the Bucs are still dealing with injuries, despite coming out of their bye week, as two of his top offensive weapons will miss this game, WR Antonio Brown and TE Rob Gronkowski. There are also injury issues in the Bucs secondary. Washington won't be winning the NFC 'Least' this year, as the Cowboys are 6-2 but how sweet would an upset win over Tampa 'taste!' I'll take a cover. Grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cle Browns at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns are FINALLY rid of former All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and that HAS to be good news. Baker Mayfield and the 5-4 Browns are in Foxborough, Ma to take on Mac Jones and the 5-4 New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Mayfield threw for 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14-of-21 passing, and Nick Chubb rushed for 137 yards and two scores to help the Browns rout the rival Cincinnati Bengals 41-16 last Sunday, in what was Cleveland's best overall game this season. The Patriots coasted to a 24-6 win at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, giving them their first three-game winning streak since the 2019 season and after a 1-3 start, New England has won four of five to also come in at 5-4.

Cleveland had dropped three of its previous four games before Sunday's rout of Cincinnati. Without Beckham, the Browns had a balanced offensive attack with Mayfield completing passes to eight different receivers. Mayfield is not having a great season (66.7% for 1,917 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs), as the Cleveland offense counts on the NFL's best rushing offense (160.2 YPG, 5.3 YPC and 16 rushing TDs all rank No. 1 among all NFL teams). However, Nick Chubb (3rd in the NFL with 721 rushing yards) was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list early in the week and ruled out on Friday. D'Ernest Johnson is the team's lone healthy RB but the good news is that Johnson ran for a career-best 146 yards and a TD in his first start against Denver back on Oct 21. "We are extremely confident in D'Ernest. That has not been a question yet," Mayfield said. The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (309.7 YPG) and is arguably coming off its best effort. Cincy's Joe Burrow came into last Sunday's game as the only QB with multiple TD passes in every game but was held without a TD pass and was intercepted twice. His QB rating on the season is 102.6 but against Cleveland it was 69.0!

Alabama rookie Mac Jones has completed 68.0% for 2,135 and completed at least 70% of his passes in FIVE of his first nine games, the only rookie QB to do so. However, he has a modest 10-7 TD/INT ratio and in the win over Carolina, he threw for just 139 yards on 12-of-18 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Over the last two weeks, Jones has completed just 57 percent of his passes while averaging 178 yards passing. The No. 15 overall pick in this year's draft completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts while averaging 254.1 yards over his first seven starts. More bad news is that the Patriots' leading rusher (only rusher?) Damien Harris began the week in the concussion protocol. Harris has run for 547 yards and 7 TDs for a team that averages just 106.8 YPG on the ground (19th) and has been ruled OUT for Sunday's game. Belichick-coached teams always play good defense and the 2021 Pats are allowing just 18.9 PPG (4th) on 340.3 YPG (9th). 

I can't help but think that the Pats are a little overrated and that Browns just may be a little underappreciated. Breaking the game down finds this is a tough Browns defense that's good at stopping the run (84.8 YPG ranks 3rd) and New England can't be expected to run well without Harris. That's going to put even more pressure on Jones, who is off back-to-back mediocre efforts (he can call Joe Burrow and ask about the Cleveland D!). The Browns rank first in the league in YPC, in average time per drive and rank in the top-three in plays per drive. Kevin Stefanski needs to out-coach Bill Belichick today, which is never an easy thing to do, but the talent on this Cleveland defense will prove to be the difference in the end in my opinion.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC Game of the Week is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT), while the Dolphins opened with a 17-16 win at New England, despite being outplayed in every facet of the game. The teams have gone in opposite directions ever since, as Baltimore's won SIX of seven, while the Dolphins had lost SEVEN in a row before beating the hapless Texans 17-9 last Sunday (Houston won in Week 1 and has lost EIGHT in a row since).

Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the season, the Ravens have still managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 161.5 YPG (5.0 YPC). QB Lamar Jackson is the key, as he's run for 600 yards (6.2 YPC / 2 TDs), while also completing 65.0% for 2,209 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. His top receivers are WR Brown (46 / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews (42 / 3 TDs). Baltimore is averaging 27.6 PPG (7th) on 427.9 YPG (2nd). Baltimore's defense no longer resembles the "Ray Lewis era" unit, allowing 24.4 PPG (21st).

While Baltimore has Lamar Jacskson at QB, the Dolphins have 'ping-ponged' between Tua and Brissett. Neither inspires confidence and gets NO help from a running game that averages an NFL-low 75.1 YPG (3.5 YPC). Big things were expected of rookie WR Waddle (from Alabama) but while he has 56 catches, he owns a puny 8.9 YPC average. TE Gesicki (44 / 2 TDs) is solid but basically, the offense is somewhat helpless (17.2 PPG ranks 28th on 297.4 YPG which ranks 30th). Remember Miami's famous "No-Name" defense, this season's defense also has no names but unlike that famous 1970s unit, it can't stop anybody, allowing 26.9 PPG (27th) on 391.9 YPG (30th).

It's true that the Ravens have won only two games by more than six points (have won four games by a combined 12 points) but the Dolphins lack a true identity and don't excel in a single area. Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games on this field and has won its three most recent matchups vs Miami with a cumulative 137-16 score. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi bears at 8:15 ET.

Chicago Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost THREE in a row. Some good news is head coach Matt Nagy is set to return to the sidelines Monday night following a one-game absence in the NFL's COVID-19 protocol and the BETTER news is the likely return of RB David Montgomery, who was back at practice this week after mending from a knee injury he sustained in Week 4. The Steelers opened 1-3 but have now won THREE in a row, outscoring opponents 65-49 during their three-game winning streak.

Speaking of Montgomery (309 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TDs in games), "He's so eager to get back," Nagy said. "We'll keep an eye on where he is and we'll see how he looks. That will be key, to see how he looks. He's gotta tell us how he feels and then we'll just get a feel for it's the best thing for us and him, and if it is, and if he's able to go and we feel good about it, he will be up and ready to rock and roll." Khalil Herbert (351 yards / 4.3 YPC) has done a decent job stepping in for Montgomery but the Bears really look forward to Montgomery's return, especially as rookie QB Justin Fields is still developing. Fields is completing 59.5% for 991 yards with just three TDs and seven INTs. However, he is capable of keeping a defense honest by running for 243 yards (5.5 YPC / 2 TDs). Mooney (33 catches) and Robinson (26 catches) are both quality WRs. The Chicago defense is NOT up to past standards, allowing 24.4 PPG.

Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 254.4 YPG so far and his career average in 240 games is 259 YPG. He has just eight TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 87.6 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 479 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 3 TDs) plus has added 37 catches, which is second on the team, In Pittsburgh's three wins, he's run for 294 yards and two TDs plus caught 11 passes and another TD. The Pittsburgh defense is allowing 20.3 PPG.

The Bears are averaging just 15.4 PPG but the Steelers are NOT much better. Let me note that Fields is coming off a breakout performance in Sunday's loss to San Francisco, running for 103 yards and a touchdown while passing for 175 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Big Ben was limited in practice Thursday with pectoral and hip injuries, although he is expected to play. I had a HUGE play on the Steelers last Sunday as an underdog at Cleveland (Pittsburgh won 15-10) but here they are laying a TD. Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS a home favorite this season (lone SU win came by three points in OT) and the Steelers will enter on an 0-6 ATS run as a home favorite going back to last season. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

I was going to use this game as my 10* O/U Game of the Year but then Rodgers was ruled out. I would reccomend a "no play." I am not offering this play for sale.

Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:05 ET.

The LA Chargers opened 4-1 but are hoping to hit the reset button after consecutive losses 38-6 at Baltimore and 27-24 at home vs New England. The Chargers visit the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, as the 3-5 Eagles return home for the first time since a 28-22 defeat against Tampa Bay on Oct 14. Since then, they lost 33-22 on the road to the Las Vegas Raiders, then posted a 44-6 victory at the 0-8 Detroit Lions last week. The 4-3 Chargers are a half-game back of the Raiders in the AFC West (Den and KC are 4-4), while the 3-5 Eagles trail the first-place Cowboys, who are 6-1 (7-0 ATS!). The NFC East was referred to as the NFC 'Least' in 2020, as Washington took the division with a 7-9 record, but the Cowboys are having 'none of that' so far in 2021.

QB Justin Herbert (63.7% for 1,994 yards with 16 TDs and six INTs) but has struggled in the last two games. In losses to Baltimore and New England, Herbert was 40 for 74 for 418 yards with three TDs and three INTs. It is the first time in his two-year career he has had two straight games with a passer rating under 70. RB Austin Ekeler is a true all-purpose back, rushing for 420 yards (5.0 YPC / 5 TDs), while adding 33 receptions with three TDs. He is tied for second in the NFL among RBs with eight scrimmage TDs and has also gone over 100 scrimmage yards in five games. WR Keenan Allen is tied for fifth in the AFC with 45 receptions and fellow WR Mike Williams (35 catches) is tied for second in the AFC with six TDs catches. Defensively, the Chargers have to tighten things up, as they are allowing 25.3 PPG (24th).

Hurts (61.3 % / 1,819 yards / 10 TDs and 4 INTs) is now an established starter at QB and also leads the etm in rushing with 432 yards on 5.9 YPC with 5 TDs. Sanders (300 yards / 4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) is on injured reserve and will miss at least two more games with an ankle injury (NOT good news). Heisman-winner Smith has 33 catches (12.8 YPC) but just one TD and fellow WR Watkins has a modest 20 catches with an 18.3 YPC average but zero TDs. With Ertz traded, Goedert (24 catches / 14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) is now the no. 1 TE. Defensively, the Eagles may have dominated Detroit (see above) but on the season, Philadelphia is allowing 23.9 PPG.

I listed some impressive LA wins earlier (see above) but Philly's wins have come over the 3-4 Falcons, the 4-4 Panthers (who were in the middle of an 0-4 slide) and the 0-8 Lions. The Eagles are real 'giant killers,' aren't they! Philadelphia has lost all THREE home games this year and the Eagles have not had much success lately against AFC foes having gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight such contests. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road and 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Bottom line...The Chargers are a MUCH better team and the 'Price is Sure Right!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET.

The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are both 4-4 and square off in this AFC/NFC matchup in Charlotte. The Pats are in Year 2 of the post-Brady era and in Year 1 of what the team hopes will be the Mac Jones era. New England opened 1-3 but has gone 3-1 its last four games, averaging a healthy 33.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina jumped out to a surprising 3-0 start but followed with FOUR straight losses, before getting back to .500 with a 19-13 win last Sunday in Atlanta.

The Pats finally have their offense revved up at a pretty good clip, coming off wins of 54-13 at home vs the Jets and 27-24 at the Chargers. Rookie QB Jones is completing 68.1% for 1,997 yards but owns a modest 9/6 TD-to-INT ratio. Meyers is the team's leading receiver with 45 catches but he averages just 9.5 YPC and doesn't have a TD catch, WRs Bourne (26 catches / 14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Agholor (22 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) have been excellent additions and the TE combo of Henry and Smith have a combined 45 catches with five TDs. RB Harris (517 yards / 4.4 YPC / 6 TDs) is having a nice season but New England averages only 101.1 YPG rushing (22nd). Belichick is a defense-first coach and this year's unit is good (20.8 PPG ranks 8th) but not great.

Sam Darnold came out of the gate 'on fire,' averaging 297.3 YPG passing through four games. The Panthers opened 3-0 but a 36-28 loss at Dallas began a four-game losing streak. As noted above, Carolina won last Sunday but in the team's last four games, Darnold has averaged just 156.3 YPG through the air. He left in the fourth quarter at Atlanta, entering the concussion protocol, and P.J. Walker filled in. Darnold did little in Wednesday's practice, also dealing with a shoulder ailment. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule said Walker has been put in challenging situations. "One of the things about being a back-up quarterback for us, you're always going in in a dire situation," Rhule said. "I don't think there's a guy in the locker room who doesn't believe in him."

Darnold is no star but I'd prefer to see him play but I'm taking the home underdog Panthers here because of its defense, which is allowing 19.9 PPG (5th) on 295.6 PPG (2nd). Carolina held the Falcons to just 213 yards of total offense last Sunday, as "Matty Ice" had one of his worst days ever in his long career throwing for only 146 yards while being picked off twice. If the Panthers can do that to Ryan, they certainly can do that to Jones, who has thrown just one TD pass on the road. This is the Patriots’ second consecutive road game (played in LA last Sunday), and they are 2-7 ATS following a point spread cover since Brady left. As for the Panthers, they have excelled in this spot, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a home underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET.

The hiring of Mike McCarthy prior to the 2020 season was viewed as a "big deal" for Dallas. "America's Team" won THREE Super Bowl titles in a four-year span from 1992 through 1995 but has had little to show over the next 2 1/2-decades. QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending-injury in the team's fifth game in 2020 and even though the NFC East winner (Washington) was just 7-9, the Cowboys fell short with a 6-10 record. Entering this season, Dallas had made just 10 playoff appearances in the last 25 seasons, with zero appearances in the NFC championship game, no less a Super Bowl appearance or win.

However after losing on a last-second FG at Tampa to open the current season, the Cowboys have won FIVE in a row and at 5-1, have separated themselves from the rest of the NFC East (all other three teams are 2-5). Dallas plays Sunday night in Minneota against the 3-3 Vikings. Minnesota hired Mike Zimmer back in 2014 and after a 7-9 first season, he then made the playoffs THREE times in the next five seasons (11, 13 and 10-win seasons), before going 7-9 in 2021. Minnesota has opened 3-3 this season and could really use a win here.

Prescott is clearly fully recovered, as he is completing 73.1% for 1,813 yards with 16 TDs and four INTs (115.0 QB rating). He's been greatly aided by a Dallas rushing attack that averages 164.3 YPG on the ground (2nd). "Zeke" is back (521 yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs), aided by Pollard (366 yards on 6.0 YPC). Prescott has excellent WRs in Lamb (33 catches / 15.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Cooper (30 catches / 12.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Shultz keeps getting better (31 catches / 3 TDs).

Minnesota's Kirk Cousins always puts up excellent numbers and this year is nor different. He's completing 69.5% for 1,769 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs (105.4 QB rating). In his previous three seasons with Minnesota, he's had a 91-29 TD/INT ratio and averaged 4,055 YPG passing per season. RB Cook had 1,557 rushing yards in 2020, after gaining 1,135 in 2019, but has played in just four games in 2021 and has 366 yards on 4.6 YPC and two TDs. He did have his best game of the season in Minnesota's 34-28 win in OT vs Carolina. His RB partner Mattison has played in all six games, gaing 268 yards. WRs Jeferson (41 catches and 3 TDs). Thielen (37 catches with 5 TDs) and Osborn (26 catches with 2 TDs), are joined by TE Conklin (22 catches) to give Cousin plenty of targets.

Both defenses are mediocre, as Dallas allows 24.3 PPG (23) and Minnesota 22.8 PPG (13th). However, Minnesota’s defense has held THREE of its last four opponents to 17 points or less. I'll admit that the Cowboys are a lot better than I thought they'd be this year AND a road victory at this tough venue would prove Dallas is indeed for real. Both teams are off a bye week but I'll note that Dallas has gone just 3-8 ATS after recent bye weeks. I realize that the Vikings are not much of a home dog (I got plus-2.5 points on Wednesday) but note that the Vikings are on a 19-7-1 ATS run as a home dog. Minnesota wins but as always, getting a few points is a bonus.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on TB/NO Over at 4:25 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by Friday afternoon by 3:00 ET

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NE Patriots at 4:05 ET.

The Pats lost Tom Brady to Tampa Bay for the 2020 season and while New England fell to 7-9, everyone knows that Brady led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win (his seventh). New England had hoped Cam Newton could regain his MVP form but that was NOT the case and in the 2021 draft took Alabama QB Mac Jones (more on him in a bit). The Pats outplayed but lost to the Dolphins in Week 1 and after a win over the Jets, got thumped at home 28-13 by the Saints. The Pats travel to LA for a game with Chargers, coming off their best effort of the season, albeit against the haliess Jets.

The Chargers eked out a win at Washington in Week 1 and then lost 20-17 at home to Dallas, falling on ag FG in the game's final play. LA then upset the Chiefs in KC, earned an impressive 28-14 home win over the Raiders (MNF) and won a 47-42 shootout against the Browns. LA's three-game winning streak was snapped in a big way, losing 34-6 at Baltimore by the Ravens. At 4-2, LA's bye week (Week 7) came at a good time.

Thrashing the Jets is not a reason to start printing playoff tickets but the Pats may be just 2-2 after a 1-2 start but the two loses came when a last-second game-winning FG (against the Bucs and Brady) hit the left goal post on the game's final play and the other loss came 35-29 (in OT) to the Dallas Cowboys, who are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS. Mac Jones (70.4% for 1,779 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs) continues to show growth with a season-best 307 yards passing against the Jets and two TDs. He did not throw an interception for the first time in five games, further distancing himself from a three-interception game Sep 26 against the New Orleans Saints. The Patriots were also 8-for-8 in the red zone the past two games, another sign that Jones is starting to feel comfortable with New England's complex offense. Harris (437 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TDs) has been solid at RB but the Pats are only averaging 95.4 YPG rushing (23rd). WR Meyers (41 catches but just 9.5 YPC) is joined by Bourne (22 catches / 15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Agholor (19 catches / 14.5 YPC / 2 TDs). I guess New England would love to have Gronk back but TEs Henry and Smith have a combined for 41 catches with 5 TDs. Belichick always puts a good defense on the field and the Pats are allowing 20.0 PPG (6th).

Justin Herbert is in his second season and has been lauded for his play so far. He's completing 65.4% for 1,771 yards with 14 TDs and just 4 iNTs but the Chargers were outplayed in all three phases at Baltimore in Week 6. Herbert threw for a season-low 195 yards and completed only 56.4% of his passes (also a season-worst). All-purpose RB Ekeler (356 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC / 5 TD plus 27 catches for 3 TDs) was held to SEVEN yards rushing (added 4 catches for 48 yards). Like New England, LA's running game is weak, averaging 94.7 YPG (25th). Herbest has All-Pro level receivers in Allen (39 catches / one TD) and Williams (35 catches / 15.1 YPC / 6 TDs) plus TE Cook (22 catches / 2 TDs) is very solid. The defense has looked pretty bad at times and is allowing 25.0 PPG, which ranks 22nd of 32 teams.

New head coach Brandon Staley is viewed as a major upgrade from the fired Anthony Lynn but he surely has NOTHING on Belichick. There is little doubt that the Chargers will remember losing 45-0 at New England last Dec 6 but the Patriots are off their best game of the year and I think they can keep the momentum rolling here. RB Harris has a chance to become the first New England running back since Corey Dillon in 2004 to have three straight 100-yard rushing games and has to LOVE his chances against the Chargers rush D, which is allowing a league-worst 162.5 YPG.

Mac Jones is equaling some milestones Justin Herbert accomplished last season with the Chargers. Jones is the third rookie with at least 170 completions in his first seven starts, joining Herbert and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow. He also has five straight games with at least 225 passing yards and a TD, which was also accomplished by Herbert, Houston's DeShaun Watson and Dallas' Dak Prescott. Jones may just turn out to be the best QB taken in the 2021 Draft (Sorry, Trevor). I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened with a 23-16 upset at Buffalo in Week 1 but then lost THREE in a row, However, the Steelers have rebounded to win two in a row to get back to 3-3. The Browns led KC almost the entire game in Week 1 but lost a close one. The Browns have since won four of six. The AFC South is a talented division in 2021, as the Bengals and Ravens are each 5-2.

Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 252.5 YPG so far and his career average in 239 games is 258.3 YPG. He has just seven TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 88.0 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 388 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) and has added 34 catches, which is tied for 1st on the team, In Pittsburgh's two wins, he's run for 203 yards and a TD plus caught eight passes and another TD. The Steelers answered a sluggish start to the season by winning their two games before heading into the bye week. The Pittsburgh players showed a little 'pep in their step' in Wednesday's practice but WR Chase Claypool had a hunch as to why. "It might be because of the bye week that we have more energy and more fun, or it's because we're playing the Browns," Claypool said. "Either way, we're having more fun out there." Claypool (22 catches / 16.3 YPC / 3 TDs) is expected back after missing Pittsburgh's last game and will join fellow WR Johnson (34 catches / 3 TDs). This is NOT a great Pittsburgh D but it's solid, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 35.2 YPG (13th).

Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. Mayfield rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), throwing just six TDs with three INTs. The Cleveland running game is No. 1 in the NFL at 170.4 YPG. Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC with four TDs) missed the team's last two games but is back here. However, Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs) missed last week as well and remains out. However, D'Ernest Johnson erupted for 146 yards with a TD in his first career start a week ago Thursday and is ready to support Chubb. Cleveland's receiving corps is far from healthy, as Hunt actually leads the team with 20 catches. TE Njoku has 17 catches, averaging a healthy 16.7 YPC but has just one TD catch. The Cleveland defense is allowing only 295.6 YPG (2nd) but allows more points than one would expect (23.6 PPG ranks 18th).

Mayfield returns here after his injured left (non-throwing) shoulder and torn labrum kept him out of Cleveland's 17-14 victory over the Denver Broncos back on Oct 21. Chubb, who has missed Cleveland's last two games, is also back. Many are down on Pittsburgh but I'm a fan of Mike Tomlin, who has consistently gotten the most out of the hands he's been dealt. Heading into last year's playoff game, the Steelers had dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Can you say "pay back?" Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC Game of the Week is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET.

The defending champions Bucs are 6-1 (just 3-4 ATS) but many may feel that Tampa Bay is still the NFL's best team. However, the Thursday Night game between the 6-1 Packers (6-1 ATS) and 7-0 Cards (6-1 ATS) features a matchup of teams that are also staking a claim as being the NFL's best team (I can hear Dallas bettors crying, we are 6-0 ATS!). The Packers were steamrolled 38-3 by the Saints in Week 1 but have won SIX in a row both SU and ATS. However, Green Bay got some VERY bad news at the beginning of the week that WR Davante Adams.was placed on the COVID-19 list. As for the Cardinals, they are 7-0 for the first time since 1974 when they resided in St Louis and were guided by coaching legend Don Coryell.

Rodgers endured the worst loss of his professional career in that Week 1 loss (133 passing yards with zero TDs and two INTs) but has since thrown 15 TD passes with just one INT in Green Bay's last six wins, He's completing 68.3% for 1,710 yards with 15 TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of 108.2. RB Aaron Jones is a true dual threat, rushing for 404 yards (4.5 YPC / 2 TDs), while catching 26 passes (2nd-most on the team) for another four TDs. That said, Green Bay is averaging only 102.0 YPG on the ground (19th). Adams has 52 catches (14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) but with him out, other than Jones, no other player has more than 15 catches. The Green Bay defense has been very solid, allowing 20.9 PPG (8th) on 331.8 YPG (7th). 

Rodgers is an "all-timer" at QB, something Arizona's Tyler Murray is building a case to become. He's completing 73.5% fro 2,002 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs (116.8 QB rating). The running game is underappreciated but is averaging 136.6 YPG (5th), featuring two solid RBs. Edmonds has 397 rushing yards (5.8 YPC / 0 TDs) and Conner has 336 yards. He averages just 3.8 YPC (two full yards less than Edmonds but has scored SIX touchdowns!). Even with a 100% Adams, the Cards' receiving corps is much better and WAY deeper than that of the Packers. Hopkins (33 catches / 7 TDs) and Kirk (30 / 4 TDs) have now been joined by AJ Green (24 catches / a team-high 16.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Purdue rookie Moore (26 catches). What's more, Arizona recently traded for TE Ertz (3-time All -Pro with Philly), and he caught three passes in his first game last Sunday, one for a 47-yard TD. I noted that Green Bay's defense was solid but Arizona's has played as well as any in the league, allowing 316.7 YPG (4th) and 16.3 PPG (best in the league!).

Arizona's offense averages 32.1 PPG (4th), EIGHT points higher than Green Bay's. One can recap the comparison of defenses above. Speaking of COVID-19 issues, Packers also will be without defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who is in COVID protocols. That leaves Green Bay missing its defensive mastermind as it attempts to slow down an Arizona offense averaging 32.1 PPG. It isn't 100 percent that Adams will miss but fellow WR Lazard also landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and he WILL miss Thursday's game. That means, unless Marquez Valdes-Scantling can come off injured reserve (he's missed the last four games with a hamstring injury), the Packers could be without their top three wideouts vs Arizona.

Yes, the line has 'jumped' upon the above news but NOT enough to get me off the Cards. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.

The Drew Brees era came to a close last season in New Orleans and the Saints are second-to-last in the NFL with 169.4 YPG through the air, well off the standard set by Brees and Co. The Saints are currently 3-2 and will likely be playing for a wild card berth as their 'ticket' into the postseason (The Tampa Bay Bradys are 6-1 to lead the NFC South). That said, compared to Seattle, New Orleans is 'cruising' in 2021. The 2-4 Seahawks are faltering at a level rarely seen over the past decade, as Seattle entered the current season having made the postseason in NINE of Pete Carroll's 11 seasons with Seattle, including EIGHT of nine times since Russell Wilson became the team's starting QB in his rookie season.

QB Jameis Winston has just 892 passing yards but has 12 TD passes, and only three INTs (in 116 attempts) for a QB rating of 108.1 (his career QB rating is 86.1!). RB Kamara (368 yards on 3.9 YPC / just one TD) is also the team's leading receiver with 15 catches. However, WRs Harris (12 catches ) and Gallaway (13 catches) have modest reception totals, they've averaged 19.7 and 17.1 YPC, respectively. Defensively, the Saints are allowing just 18.2 PPG (4th-best).

Seattle's woes have a lot to do with the loss of QB Russell Wilson (72.0% with 10 TDs and one INT plus a QB rating of 125.3) to a finger injury and starting RB Chris Carson (232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs with neck troubles that have forced him to miss the last two games. Geno Smith started last week at QB and completed 23 of 32 for 209 yards with one TD and zero INTs but he's NO Wilson! You think? Smith's fumble while being sacked in overtime led to Pittsburgh's winning score. Collins was the featured back and ran for 101 yards (5.1 YPC) and a TD. WRs Metcalf (31 catches / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Lockett (27 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) are excellent but that's when Wilson is the one throwing to them. Getting back to Collins, he came out of last Sunday's game 'beat up!'

However, Seattle's offense is not Carroll's biggest concern. It's a defense that's allowing 433.2 YPG, dead-last in the NFL (32nd). After giving up more than 450 total yards in four straight games (that tied an NFL record), the Seahawks were better last week holding the Steelers to 345 yards. However, Seattle still hasn't held an opponent under 100 yards rushing (can you say a breakout game by Kamara?) and continues to get very little out of its pass rush (had zero sacks against Pittsburgh in the OT loss). The Saints are coming off their bye week and more than a few players will be back from injuries.

New Orleans has been VERY kind  to its backs on the road, going 36-15 ATS in its last 51 as the visiting side. The Saints will have no mercy here on the struggling home team in this one. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SNF Magic Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

Week 7's SNF features two teams badly in need of a win. Indianapolis is 2-4 but plays in the weak AFC South. Tennessee leads at 4-2 but has to host the Chiefs on Sunday, off its MNF thriller over the Bills. In contrast, San Francisco is 2-3 and is stuck in the NFC West, which features the NFL's only unbeaten team (Arizona at 6-0) and the LA Rams, who are 5-1. That said, the team that loses here will see its playoff chances headed for 'life support,' even though the season has yet to reach its midpoint. The Colts have been consistently inconsistent this season but they're off a big 31-3 win over lowly Houston at home. The 49ers are hoping to bounce back after they lost 17-10 at Arizona in their latest matchup. That came two weeks ago, so they're now fully rested after their bye week, which really came at an opportune time early in the season.

Carson Wentz, the former Philadelphia Eagles QB was acquired in the offseason that reunited him with Frank Reich, who was Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for Wentz's first two NFL seasons (2016-17). Wentz looked like he was headed to stardom when he threw a career-high 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2017 but his production went down after Reich departed to become the Colts' head coach. Wentz had just 16 TD passes and a career-worst 15 interceptions in 2020, losing his starting job to Jalen Hurts. However, reunited with Reich has worked out well, with Wentz completing 64.2% for 1,545 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (102.4 QB rating. In fact, Wentz is looking to throw multiple TD passes for the FOURTH straight game Sunday night. RB Taylor started poorly but has averaged 99.3 YPG over his last three, after rushing for 145 yards with two TDs vs Houston. WR Pittman leads with 31 catches but the bad news is that TY Hilton, who returned from a neck injury with four catches for 80 yards in his 2021 debut, has been ruled out. The Indy defense is solid, allowing 21.8 PPG (11th).

San Francisco was on the verge of a QB controversy but Trey Lance, who started against Arizona, sprained his left knee in that game and was ruled out Friday. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting QB, as he returns from a calf injury that caused him to miss the Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "During the bye week, we made great strides," Garoppolo said Wednesday. "It will get better every day. Right now, it feels great." Jimmy G has completed 66.1% for 925 yards with five TD sand two INTs. Is he San Francisco's QB of the future? Not sure! The team's running game has been devastated by injuries but has still managed to average 122.0 YPG (12th). It won't help Jimmy G that George Kittle, the best TE outside of Kelce, remains out but WR WR Deebo Samuel had 71 yards from scrimmage and his fourth career TD run in Week 5 loss to Arizona, plus has at least five catches in four of five games this season (31 catches / 17.7 YPC / 3 TDs). The Nick Bosa-led defense (Bosa has five sacks, the most through five games for the franchise since Bryant Young had six in 2005) is allowing a modest 329.8 YPG (6th) but 23.8 YPG (16th)?

Here's two contrasting trends. The 49ers are a horrific 0-9 their last nine as a home favorite (aren't they due?) but 11-5 ATS in non-conference games. Sometimes, when a team is rolling and on a win streak, a "bye week" can throw a proverbial "monkey wrench" into their well-oiled chemistry, but in this case, the bye came at a great time for a San Francisco team that opened 2-0 but has now lost THREE straight. "We could easily be sitting at 5-0 right now," 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. "Obviously, we're not. We're 2-3 but we go back and revisit every loss, you can find some good in that. There were some things where we could have won some games but we didn't take advantage of the situations." He may be exaggerating a little but the 49ers are NOT a sub-.500 team. Lay the short price as San Francisco moves to 3-3.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL "Featured" O/U is Det/LAR Over at 4:05 ET.

The 0-6 Detroit Lions will be in Los Angeles on Sunday to take on the  5-1 LA Rams. QB Jared Goff, who the Rams made the overall No. 1 pick of the 206 Draft will be back in LA to face his former team for the first time since the Rams engineered a trade last offseason that brought QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams from the Lions. The move to secure Stafford has gone well, as the Rams sit at 5-1,  just below the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. As for Goff's move to Detroit? Not so much! The same cannot be said for the Lions. Detroit is 0-6 and still looking for its first win under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. Speaking honestly (rare for any coach or manager these days), Rams head coach Sean McVay said the handling of Goff's departure wasn't exactly a smooth process. "I wish there was better, clearer communication," McVay said. "To say that it was perfectly handled on my end, I wouldn't be totally accurate in that. I'll never claim to be perfect, but I will try to learn from some things that I can do better, and I think that was one of them without a doubt."

Goff is completing 66.8% for 1,505 yards with seven TDs and four TDs. He doesn't have much to work with as the running game averages 91.8 YPG (23rd). RB Swift is the team's leading receiver (34) and TE Hockenson checks in with 32. Neither player averages as much a 10.0 YPC! The Detroit defense gave up 76 points in its first two games but then held opponents to just 20.7 over its next three. However, Joe Burrow  and the Bengals scored 34 points against them last Sunday and now the Lions face ex-teammate Stafford, who could easily wind up with a career season.

That's saying something, as Stafford had thrown for more than 4,000 yards in EIGHT different seasons. However, he's completing 69.5% through six games for 1,838 yards (that puts him on pace for about 5,200 yards in this 17-game season) and he's thrown 16 TDs against just four INTs. His QB rating of 116.6 is almost 16 points higher than his career average of 90.8. The Rams running game is no bargain (103.5 YPG ranks 21st) but Stafford has a pair of excellent veteran WRs in Kupp (46 catches / 7 TDs) and Woods (29 catches / 3 TDs), a second-year WR in Jefferson who has 17 catches (had just 19 in his rookie season) and a quality TE in Higbee (22 catches and two TDs). The LA defense is allowing 21.2 PPG (10th) and won't feel threatened against a Detroit offense averaging only 18.2 PPG.

Then again, I'm predicting that Goff has his best of the season here, against the team that "done him wrong!" Goff is going to have his hands full with this aggressive Rams pass rush, but I don't think he'll go down without putting up a fight. That said, Stafford appears to be "a man on a mission" this year (finally on a team with a real chance to make some 'noise' in the postseason) and I have a hard time seeing the Lions slowing him down on his own field. With these two highly motivated QBs going head-to-head, all signs point to this total blasting past the posted number sooner, rather than later. It's Goin' Over. BE THERE!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

It's Week 7 and Sunday's game between the 4-2 Bengals and 5-1 Ravens at Baltimore means a win by Cincy ties the two teams atop the AFC Central (with Cincy owning the tiebreaker) but a win by Baltimore moves the Ravens two games ahead of the Bengals. The Bengals have looked good so far but they will have to overcome recent history that reveals that since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB midway through 2018, the Ravens are 5-0 against the Bengals. That said, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is taking nothing for granted. "The (Bengals') whole team is one of the best teams in the National Football League right now," Harbaugh told reporters. "There's no question about it -- just watch them play. ... We've got our hands full."

I couldn't agree more with Harbaugh. Joe Burrow, who actually made LSU's Ed Orgeron look like a 'real' head coach, went 19-for-29 for 271 passing yards, with three TDs and an interception last week to guide the Bengals past winless Detroit. In doing so, he became the second first- or second-year QB ever to throw for multiple TDs in each of the first six games of a season, joining Dan Marino (not bad company!). Burrow is completing 70.7% for 1,540 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs. He has the best RB on the field Sunday in Joe Mixon (480 yards on 4.3 YPC with 3 TDs) plus owns a good receiving corps. WR Chase has 27 catches, averaging 20.5 YPC with five TDs. Boyd and Higgins are solid possession receivers and TE Uzomah has 14 catches (11.8 YPC / 3 TDs). Cincy's real improvement is on defense, as the Bengals are allowing 18.5 PPG (5th) on just 331.0 YPG (8th). The Bengals ranked 26th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last season.

Baltimore lost RBs Dobbins and Edwards before the season started but Baltimore still averages 155.2 YPG on the ground (4th). That's because Lamar Jackson has run for 392 yards on 6.1 YPC with five TDs, Jackson is having an excellent season throwing the ball as well, completing 67.5% for 1.686 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. TE Andrews (34 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) leads the team in receptions but WR Brown has 32 catches (15.2 YPC / 5 TDs). The defense is not quite as dominating as years past but is allowing a modest 20.7 PPG (7th) in 359.3 YPG (18th).

Yes, this is Baltimore's third straight home game but this is a different Cincy team than the Ravens have faced in recent years. Joe Burrow is "special" and the defense is GREATLY improved. Baltimore crushed the Chargers last Sunday but back in Week 5 (MNF), Baltimore needed a 16-3 4th quarter to get into OT vs the Colts, before winning with a TD in OT. This is a "statement" game for Cincy. Are the Bengals real or are they 'Memorex?' Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 7, find themselves 3-3 and tied for last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Good news is that the Chargers and Raiders are just 4-2 and the 2021 season features 17 games. The Titans opened the season losing 38-10 at home to the Cardinals and the loss was a bit of a shocker. SIX weeks later, Arizona is the NFL's lone unbeaten at 6-0 (5-1 ATS). Tennessee has won four of five since, losing only 27-24 in OT at the Jets (now that REMAINS a head-scratcher!). KC is off 31-13 win at Washington, while Tennessee is off an impressive 34-31 home win Monday night over the Bills.

Patrick Mahomes is completing 69.0% for 1,887 yards with 18 TDs and eight INTs. Those are impressive numbers but let me point out that his eight INTs in six games (242 attempts) compares VERY poorly to his total of just 11 INTs the last two seasons combined (1,072 attempts). KC's running game took a hit with Edwards-Helaire (304 yards of 4.7 YPC) missing last week and now being placed on IR. Mahomes still has the best WR/TE combo in the league in Hill (46 catches / 5 TDs) and Kelce (38 catches / 4 TDs). KC's defense is struggling, ranking 28th in both scoring D (29.3 PPG) and total D (410.5 YPG).

Tennessee QB Tannehill (63.4% for 1,467 yards) has just six TDs and four INTs. His two-best WRs (Jones and Brown) are both hurting and their status will become available no sooner than Saturday. However, RB Henry continues to prove he can 'carry' Tennessee's offense. He had just 58 yards (on 3.4 YPC) in the Week 1 loss to Arizona but he's run for 100-plus yards in FIVE straight (averaging 145.0 YPG). He has three TDs in the last two games, giving him 10 on the season. Defensively, the Titans are only slightly better than the Chiefs, ranking 24th in allowing 26.8 PPG on 384.0 YPG.

Here we go. A combination of turnovers (Kansas City leads the NFL in giveaways with14) and shoddy defense from Kansas City has contributed to the Chiefs being just 3-3. An interesting note is that Kansas City has gone "over" its projected season win total seven years straight coming into the 2021 season, so to keep that streak alive it'll now have to "run the table." More notably, going back to the middle part of the 2020 season, Kansas City's win and cover still makes them just  3-11 ATS its last 14 games (79% "go-against").

Until Kansas City can show any type of consistency from week to week, I have a hard time trusting the Chiefs, especially on the road against Tennessee (which is NO Washington). Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Losers Day Out play is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

Atlanta joined the NFL in 1966, the same year Miami entered the AFL. The Falcons have been to just ONE Super Bowl (2016) and blew a 28-3 lead. The Dolphins won back-to-back Super Bowls ('72 & '73) and have NOT won one since. 2-4 Atlanta is at 1-5 Miami on Sunday in what I'm dubbing a "Losers Day Out" play. The Falcons are 2-3 but note that the wins have come over the Giants and Jets, who are a combined 2-9. Miami won at New England in Week 1 but has since lost FIVE in a row (1-4) The Falcons have played the Dolphins just three times in Matt Ryan's career (Atlanta is 1-2) but note that in each meeting, Miami's had a different QB lead them. That trend will continue Sunday, as Tua Tagovailoa has never faced Atlanta. Previous Miami QBs that Ryan has gone up against are Chad Pennington (2009), Ryan Tannehill (2013) and Jay Cutler (2017).

Let's start with Ryan. and one of the silliest nicknames anyone has ever given someone who has NEVER won anything, "Matty Ice." Are you kidding me? Yes, Ryan has thrown for better than 4,000 yards in 10 straight seasons but the ONLY time he led his team to a Super Bowl was in the 2016 season, when the Falcons lost in OT after leading 28-3 in the third quarter. Ryan is completing 69.1% for 1,332 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs but his receiving corps is not what it used to be. Rookie TE Pitts (24 catches) could be a future star but WR Patterson (25 catches / 11.8 YPC / 4 TDs) is NO Julio Jones. As for the running game, Atlanta averages just 3.7 YPC on 91.0 YPG (24th). The offense is averaging only 21.0 PPG, which does NOT bode well with a defense allowing 29.6 PPG (30th).

OK, the Dolphins can match Atlanta's ineptitude both offensively AND defensively. Miami is averaging only 16.5 PPG (29th), while allowing 29.5 PPG (29th). Yes, the Dolphins were beaten by Jacksonville 23-20 in London Last Sunday, allowing the Jags to snap a 20-game losing streak. However, Tua returned against the Jaguars and did some good things, completing 33 of 47 passes for 329 yards and two TDs, as the Dolphins converted on 9 of 17 third-down plays.  It doesn't help that Miami ranks dead-last in rushing at 71.5 YPG (3.7 YPC). Miami's top playmakers right now are TE Mike Gesicki and rookie WR Jaylen Waddle. Gesicki has 30 catches for a team-high 342 yards and one TD, while Waddle has a team-high 37 catches for 301 yards and three TDs (note: his 8.1 YPC is FAR below what was expected.

Miami does have the disadvantage of coming home from London WITHOUT a week off and Atlanta does come in off a bye but that won't deter me from playing the Dolphins in this one. Let me note that Atlanta was a horrific 1-11 ATS vs non-conference opponents from 2017-19 and has done better in 2020 and the early part of 2021 (4-1 ATS), but I want NO part of them laying points here. Miami was 10-6 SU last season and ended the year going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its final six home games. Of course, the Dolphins are clearly NOT the same team they were in 2020 but a loss here and one can 'put a fork' in Miami's 2021 season. I won't beat a dead horse." This is my last try on Miami.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET.

The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals!

Denver seems to have found a QB in Teddy Bridgewater, who is completing 70.2% for 1,514 yards with 10 TDs and four INTs (100.9 QB rating). Bridgewater threw the ball 49 times last Sunday for 334 yards and three INTs but his three INTs really hurt (note: he had just ONE interception after five games / 149 attempts). Bridgewater is dealing with a foot injury and he said the foot was stepped on during Sunday's game. Bridgewater was limited in practice on Tuesday but is expected to play. RBs Gordon (332 yards on 4.7 YPC and Williams (300 yards on 4.6 YPC) give Denver a solid running game, while WRs Sutton (33 catches / 14.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Patrick (25 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) plus TE Fant (30 catches / 9.1 YPC / 3 TDs) give Bridgewater good options. The defense has been excellent, ranking 4th in both points allowed (18.3 PPG) and total defense (314.7 YPG).

Cleveland's Baker Mayfield insisted his injured left shoulder wasn't a problem and that he planned on playing Thursday night. However, he has been ruled out and will miss his first game since taking over the Browns' starting QB role in Week 3 of the 2018 season. His 51 consecutive regular-season starts was the fourth-longest active streak among QBs (the Browns are hoping Mayfield will avoid season-ending surgery). What's more, the Browns lead the NFL with 168.5 YPG on the strength of RBs Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC / 5 TDs). However, Chubb will miss his second straight game due to a calf injury plus Hunt was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with his own calf injury sustained against the Cardinals. Hunt is also Cleveland's leading receiver (20 catches), leaving starter Case Keenum (more in a bit) with TE Njoku (15 catches / 17.7 YPC / 1 TD) as his top target. The Cleveland defense allows just 307.7 YPG) to rank 2nd but the Browns are allowing 25.2 PPG (22nd)! It sure hasn't helped that the Browns have forced just three takeaways, ranking 29th.

Case Keenum has made 62 NFL starts and owns a 75-47 TD/INT ratio but has gone 27-35 in those starts. Note that includes an 11-3 mark in 2017 with the Vikings, otherwise his record as a starter falls to 16-32 (.333). I had a big play on the Browns last Sunday and at first blush, hesitated playing against them here. However, not only is Mayfield out but so are BOTH Chubb and Hunt. It's a 'bridge too far to back Cleveland here.

Going back to the 1991 season, the Broncos have beaten the Browns in 12 of the last 13 meetings plus Denver has covered in five of its last as a non-division road underdog. Interestingly, the Browns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Thursday night contests. Do either of these ATS stats really matter?! Well, I'll argue that they certainly don't hurt! Both teams play in a tough, competitive divisions and the loser here will see its season slipping away. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET.

Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020.

Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season).

The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs).

Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd).

On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets.

QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.

Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?).

Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG.

The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th.

I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 9* Featured Sunday O/U is on LV/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

Las Vegas opened the season with three straight victories, beating the Ravens 33-27 in overtime, the Steelers 26-17 and the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime as well. However, the Raiders then lost a Monday Nighter 28-14 at the LA Chargers, before last week's 20-9 home loss to the Bears. The Raiders travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos, who have had a similar start to the season. The Broncos also won their first three games, beating the Giants 27-13, the Jaguars 23-13, and the Jets 26-0. However, Denver has struggled the last two weeks, falling 23-7 to the Ravens and 27-19 to the Steelers. Both teams are 3-2, ONE game behind the 4-1 Chargers and ONE game up on the Chiefs 9KC has won the AFC West FIVE straight years!).

QB David Carr got off to an excellent start but had his worst effort of the season at home vs the Bears, throwing for just 206 yards without a TD and one INT. RB Jacobs, off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, has not been healthy and last week had just 48 yards on 15 carries. The Raiders are averaging only 78.6 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th. Carr had been playing VERY well before last Sunday, averaging around 350 YPG with eight TDs and three INTs. TE Waller is tied for the team lead (28 catches) with WR Renfro, while WRs Ruggs 17 catches / 20.5 YPC) and Edwards (13 catches / 18.2 YPC) can 'stretch' the field. The Las Vegas defense is allowing 24.0 PPG.

Denver has found a QB in Teddy Bridgewater, who is completing 68.8% for 1,180 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 106.1). Gordon (282 yards / 4.7 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (247 yards / 4.2 YPC / one TD) give Denver a decent running game (118.6 YPG ranks 12th), while WRs Sutton (25 catches / 15.1 YPC) and Patrick (22 catches / 13.7 YPC) are solid at WR. TE Fant adds 21 receptions and two TDs The Denver defense is much improved, holding opponents to 15.2 PPG (2nd) on 292.4 YPG (3rd0.

For a number of reasons, I think this posted O/U number is just a little too low here. I think this is a great situational play. Of course, 'the elephant in the room' is the resignation of Jon Gruden (you just MAY have heard!). The Raiders are having to deal with the fall out of that fiasco and I think the organization will rally on the field this weekend. These types of situations either go one of two ways, as the team will rally, or fall flat on its face. I believe Derek Carr will step up here, off not just one, but two subpar performances. He has passed for a total of 402 yards in the last two weeks, 33 yards fewer than he had in the season opener. The Broncos are in a similar slide after starting the year with three wins. They, too, have struggled to find consistency on offense, particularly on third downs where they have gone 5-for-26 over the past two games.

These teams combined to score 63 and 49 points in their two meetings last season and this mid-40s over/under sets up perfectly to go O-V-E-R! Finally, note that Las Vegas has seen the total go over in EIGHT of its last 11 off a straight-up and against-the-spread road loss after being held to 10 or fewer points as well.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET.

Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North.

Murray has completed 70 percent or better of his passes in his last four games, completing 75.2% on the season for 1,512 yards with 10 TDs and four INTs (113.0 QB rating). He's also a dangerous threat to run, with 110 yards on the ground, while adding three TDs. Edmonds (270 yards / 5.5 YPC) and Connor (201 yards on just 3.2 YPC but with five TDs) lead a running game averaging 128.0 YPG (8th). Murray is blessed with proven targets like DeAndre Hopkins (23 catches / 13.6 YPC / 4 TDs), Chris Kirk (21 catches / 13.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and A.J. Green (16 catches / 16.3 YPC / 2 TDs) plus rookie Rondale Moore (21 catches / 12.9 YPC / 1 TD). The Arizona D is allowing just 19.0 PPG (6th) and with the NFL's fourth-highest scoring offense (31.4 PPG), the Cards' point-differential of plus-12.4) trails only the Buffalo Bills ().

Mayfield is not the focus of the Cleveland offense, as Chubb (523 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs) and Hunt (295 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) lead the NFL's best rushing offense at 187.6 YPG. Hunt is also the team's leading receiver with 17 catches but WR Njoku is rounding into form with 14 catches on 18.6 YPC with five TDs. OBJ has played the last three weeks and has nine catches (13.8 YPC) with one TD. Mayfield threw for a season-high 321 yards in Cleveland's season-opening 33-29 loss at KC but while Cleveland won its next three games, Mayfield averaged only 204.7 YPG passing. He had his best game of the season last week in completing 23 of 32 for 305 yards with two TDS and no INTs but it came in a 47-42 loss. The Cleveland defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (11th) on an impressive 298.8 YPG (that's 4th-best).

Mayfield's best two games in 2021 have come in losses. That NEEDS to change and I love the way this one sets up for Cleveland this weekend. The Cardinals are the NFL's lone unbeaten team (4-1 ATS) and travel cross-country for this non-conference game, before returning home for a 'cream puff' game against the Texans. I think Arizona finally has its letdown here. Cleveland HAS to be motivated, after last week's 47-42 loss at the Chargers. It was an amazing loss, as the Browns scored 42 points, had 532 total yards and zero turnovers. In fact, Cleveland is the first team in NFL history (including the playoffs) to lose when having either 40 points and zero turnovers OR 40 points, 500 yards and zero turnovers.

The Browns have won five of their last six home games, Mayfield would LOVE to beat Murray mano a mano and as I mentioned above, the Browns have to be in a foul mood off that loss last week.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!'

After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold.

The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return.

No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos.

While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET.

The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke.

Mahomes has looked mortal so far but only by the impossible standards he's already established. Can we call it an 'off year' when he's completing 69.2% for 1,490 yards with 16 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 106.1). RB Edwards-Helaire had gotten off to a solid start (304 yards rushing on 4.7 YPC) but has been placed on IR. WR Hill (37 catches / 4 TDs) and TE Kelce (30 catches / 4 TDs) make for a dangerous duo but Hill is banged up and is listed as questionable. Then there is the KC defense, which has allowed 30-plus points in every game this season. The Chiefs rank last in scoring defense (32.6 PPG) and 31st (of 32 teams) in total defense (437.4 YPG).

The Washington defense played well last season, especially down the stretch, and was the key to them reaching the playoffs. However, Washington is allowing 31.0 PPG (31st) on 407.8 YPG (27th) through five games this season. QB Taylor Heinicke has had his moments this season (64.2% for 1,298 yards with eight TDs and five INTs) but recently, his storyline of going from taking college classes online to becoming an NFL starter is over. RB Gibson (313 yards / 4.0 YPC / 3 TDs) is OK but neither him nor the team's leading receiver (McLaurin), are 'special.' McLaurin has 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 3 TDs).

On an interesting note, Kansas City has gone "over" its projected season win total seven years straight coming into the 2021/22 campaign, so to keep that streak alive it'll now have to "run the table." Hard to imagine the Chiefs falling to 2-4 with a loss here but the Chiefs continue to "play down" to the level of their competition, as evidenced by the fact that they're just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs teams with losing records. More notably, going back to the middle part of the 2020 season, KC is a money-burning 2-11 ATS their last 'unlucky' 13 games, meaning it's an 85% "go-against" in this game. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina.

Brady leads the NFL with 1,767 passing yards, completing 66.2% with 15 TDs and just two INTs for a QB rating of 108.5. Speaking of interceptions, he also has an ongoing franchise record of 203 consecutive passes without one. "What he does is crazy, especially at his age and with the level of play that he has been able to sustain for such a long time," Buccaneers WR Mike Evans told reporters. "It's unreal and I don't think we will ever see it again." Evans has 29 receptions (4 TDs), tying him with Godwin for most catches. Antonio Brown has 20 catches and three TDs, while TE Gronk has 16 catches and four TDs. However, Gronk has missed the last two games and along with Godwin, is questionable for this game. Brady, who has a thumb injury (but he's Superman, right?), is having a great season despite getting little help from a running game that is averaging only 82.0 YPG (26th). The Tampa Bay defense was great during last season's Super Bowl run but this year's unit ranks 1st in allowing 45.8 YPG rushing but 32nd in yards allowed passing (314.4).

The Eagles have decided that Jalen Hurts is their No. 1 QB and he' showing promise. He's completing 64.8%, averaging 324.2 YPG plus has seven TDs and three INTs. He's also a dangerous runner, gaining 256 yards on 6.0 YPC with three TDs. RB Sanders is solid, with 214 yards on 4.5 YPC. Heisman-winner Smith has 325 catches but is averaging a less-than-impressive 12.5 YPC. Watkins has 13 catches and an excellent 20.5 YPC. Philly has two good TEs in Goedert (15 catches) and Ertz (14), which is good news with Goedert currently sidelined. The defense is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) but matches up well here vs Brady, allowing just 194.8 YPG through the air, third-best in the NFL.

Brady expressed concern about the short preparation time to dissect a Philadelphia defense that features three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay and two stellar defensive linemen in six-time Pro Bowler Fletcher Cox and breakout star Javon Hargrave. Slay intercepted two passes and CB Steven Nelson picked off one as Philadelphia recovered from a 15-3 deficit late in the second quarter to win 21-18.

Philadelphia's 21-18 road victory over Carolina essentially saved its season last weekend. Philadelphia's defense looked great in that one, holding Sam Darnold's offense to just 177 passing yards, to go along with three interceptions (Eagles also posted three sacks). Tampa Bay may be a little tired and note that the Bucs are 0-2 ATS on the road this season, losing by 10-points at the Rams and 'escaping' with a two-point win in New England, when the Pats' potential game-winning FG hit the left goal post.  Note that since Brady's come on board, the Bucs are also just 4-6 ATS as a road favorite with a plus-4.3 spread differential. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!

Josh Allen just keeps getting better, completing 63.1% for 1.055 yards with 9 TDs and 2 INTs (also adds 129 yards rushing on 5.4 YPC with one TD). The running game improved this season, averaging 145.3 YPG (5th), with Singletary (259 yards on 5.3 YPC and a TD) and Moss (147 yards on 4.2 YPC with 3 TDs) both contributing. A trio of WRs give Allen plenty of options. Diggs has 26 catches and Beasley 25, while Sanders has become the team's best deep threat (16 catches averaging 16.8 YPC). Buffalo is averaging 33.5 PPG on 404.0 YPG (6th)

KC's offense takes a backseat to no one, matching Buffalo by averaging 33.5 PPG on 427.5 YPG (2nd). Patrick Mahomes hasn't had a drop-off, completing 72.3% for 1,219 yards with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. KC's running game is also improved (130.3 YPG on 5.1 YPC to rank 8th), as Edwards-Helaire has run for 291 yards on 5.0 YPC. WR Hill (30 catches / 15.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and TE Kelce (24 catches / 13.0 YPC / 3 TDs) are two of the NFL's VERY best plus the newly acquired Josh Gordon has been elevated to the active roster, Gordon was an All-Pro in 2013 with Cleveland but has not played since 2019 and has served six suspensions imposed by the NFL during his checkered career. Supposedly, Gordon looks fit and ready. A rebirth? He's in the perfect situation for just that.

The HUGE difference between the two teams heading into this game is DEFENSE! While the Bills rank 1st in points allowed (11.0 PPG) and total defense (216.8 YPG), KC ranks 31st in both points allowed (31.3 PPG) on 437.8 YPG). The Bills have also forced a league-best 11 takeaways and just became the first team to 'pitch' two shutouts in a season's first four games since Baltimore did so in 2000 (note: Ravens won the Super Bowl that year!)

OK, so why take KC? Note that Buffalo's quality of opponents is hardly makes up a "murderer's row." Pittsburgh is 0-3 since beating the Bills, Miami is 0-3 since winning a Week 1 game, Washington is 2-2 but BOTH wins have come on last-second 'miracles' and Houston is 0-3 since a Week 1 over 0-4 Jacksonville. KC's big second half last week at Philly could be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Chiefs. KC plays two straight on the road after this game (at Washington and Tennessee), making this game VERY important for a team that currently is behind all three of its AFC West rivals (KC has won the division each of the last FIVE seasons!). The Bills offer a great challenge and it's my belief the Chiefs 'answer the call!' Lay the short points and expect a comfortable cover.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* "Featured" Sunday O/U is on Cle/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.

A pair of 3-1 teams meet Sunday in Los Angeles, as the Browns take on the Chargers. Kevin Stefanski took over as Cleveland's head coach last season and led them to an 11-5 record, the team's first winning record since 2007 (ending a 12-year drought of sub-.500 seasons). More importantly, the Browns made the postseason, ending a 17-year drought. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers in the wild card round, before falling to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Cleveland opened 2021 with a hard-luck 33-29 loss at KC but has won three in a row since to put them in a three-way tie atop the AFC North with Baltimore and Cincinnati (all 3-1).

The Chargers dumped head coach Anthony Lynn after last season (12-20 in 2109 and 2020) and hired Brandon Staley. He's made a BIG difference already, as the Chargers are also off to a 3-1 (currently are in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Raiders). Los Angeles won 20-16 at Washington in Week 1, before falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!). However, the Chargers have been 'cooking' with an impressive 30-24 victory at KC in Week 3 and then a 28-14 Week 4 MNF win at home against the previously unbeaten Raiders!

Both teams are 'hungry' for a win, playing in highly competitive divisions. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield really stepped up last season, completing 62.8% for 3,356 yards He's completing 65.5% this season for 935 yards, which is an average of 233.8 YPG (last year's average was 222.7 YPG). However, he had a 26-8 TD-to-INT ratio last season but it's just 2-2 after four games in 2021. The offense has relied more on the one-two RB duo of Chubb (362 yards on 5.2 YPC) and Hunt (234 yards on 5.4 YPC). Cleveland enters No. 1 in the NFL by averaging 177.0 YPG. 'Flying under the radar' is the Cleveland D, allowing 16.8 PPG (4th) on 250.3 YPG (2nd).

Justin Herbert of LA outplayed Derek Carr Monday night, completing 25 of 38 for 222 yards with three TDs and no INTs. He's completing 68.9% on the season for 1,178 yards with nine TDs and three INTs. RB Ekeler ran for 117 yards (one TD) plus caught a TD pass. This all-purpose back has run for 283 yards on 5.7 YPC with four TDs plus has 18 receptions and one TD. WRs Allen (28) and Williams (23) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (12 catches) is solid. The LA defense is not quite in Cleveland's class but is allowing just 18.5 PPG (7th) on 332.0 YPG (9th).

So why go over? The Browns are on the road for a second straight week and are coming off their worst offensive effort of the season, a 14-7 win at Minnesota. Cleveland gained a season-low 327 yards vs the Vikings, after averaging 410.0 YPG while scoring 28.7 PPG its first three games! Mayfield is way OVERDUE for a big game and up against Herbert (who is "the REAL deal"), should rise to the challenge. Could we see two "gun-slingers" go toe-to-toe in this one? My bet says, "Yes we can!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET,

My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT.

The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. 

The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th).

The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets  little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th).

The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. 

The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss.

Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th).

Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry.

Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. 

Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9.

Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. 

Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. 

It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET.

The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs.

Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second  OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory.

QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games.

QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021.

The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.

Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'

Brady passed for 379 yards and four TD passes when the Bucs eked out a 31-29 win over the Cowboys in Week 1. Tampa Bay then pulled away for a 48-25 victory over the Falcons in Week 2, as Brady threw for 270 yards and FIVE touchdowns! Yes, he passed for 432 yards in Week 3 at the Rams but he had just one TD pass and facing a 'real defense,' the Bucs offense looked pretty ordinary. Tampa Bay has a non-existent running game, averaging 56.3 YPG (3.5 YPC) to rank 31st of 32 teams. The defense that completely shut down Mahomes and KC in the Super Bowl, despite returning all 11 starters, has looked VERY ordinary. I'm being kind here, as the Bucs rank both 27th in points allowed (29.3 PPG) and total defense (402.0 YPG).

The Pats lost at home 17-16 in Week 1 to the Dolphins, despite outplaying Miami in all aspects, New England rebounded with a 25-6 win on the road vs the Jets but so what? The Pats then got humbled (don't remind me!) at home last Sunday, losing 28-13 to the Saints. The Patriots turned to Cam Newton to replace Brady last season but Newton was then released in favor of rookie Mac Jones prior to the start of this regular season. Jones was fine in his first two starts, averaging 233.5 YPG passing and even though he had just one TD pass, he didn't throw an INT in 69 attempts. However, Jones and company took a step back in Week 3's home loss to the Saints. Jones finished with 270 yards passing and a TD but he also had three INTs!. Like Tampa Bay, New England's running game is poor, averaging 91.7 YPG (24th) on 3.9 TYPC. However, a Belichick-coached team can always play defense and the Pats are allowing just 17.0 PPG (5th) on 282.3 YPG (also 5th).

Motivation abounds for both sides in this one but I'm betting that the New England pass D, which is allowing just 159.7 YPG (2nd-best), gives the Pats a chance for the outright upset. The Pats are allowing just 57.8% completions and opposing QBs own a passer rating of 65.9, the second-lowest of any NFL team. This one comes right down to the wire. Grab the points, as the play is New England.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.

Ben Roethlisberger has 801 passing yards through Week 3 but has just three TDs and three INTs. He needed 58 attempts to throw for 318 yards vs the Bengals! The running game is a weak link, as Pittsburgh is averaging just 53.0 YPG to rank dead-last in the NFL. Alabama rookie RB Harris has run for just 123 yards on 3.1 YPC but has caught 20 passes! Big Ben does have three quality WRs in Claypool, Johnson and Smith-Schuster. The Pittsburgh D is about average so far, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 354.7 YPG (13th).

Green Bay and Rodgers have rebounded big time the last two weeks, beating Detroit 35-17 (MNF Week 2) and San Francisco 30-28 in SNF Week 3. Rodgers has bounced back with six TD passes and no INTs in 60 pass attempts, posting QB ratings of 145.6 and 113.2. RB Jones gained just NINE rushing yards in Week 1 but has 149 yards the last two weeks (2 TDs) plus eight catches for three TDs. WR Adams (25 catches) is among the best in the NFL. Green Bay's D is nothing special (I'm being kind), allowing 27.7 PPG (14th).

I had my SNF Magic play on Green Bay but this is a tough spot for them here. Pittsburgh is 1-2 and looking to bounce back from a listless 24-10 loss to Cincinnati last Sunday, one in which the Steelers had a 21-12 advantage in FDs and 312-268 advantage in yards. The Bengals, Browns and Ravens are all 2-1 in the AFC North and at 1-2, Pittsburgh can ill-afford a 1-3 start.

The Steelers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 tries and a road underdog (24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 when playing the role of underdog), so I'm taking the points. Upset Alert? Just maybe.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET.

Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET.

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday.

QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd).

The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus  added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!).

Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Car/Dal Under at 1:00 ET.

This Week 4 matchup between the Panthers and Cowboys features a contest between two FIRST-PLACE teams. The 3-0 Panthers sit atop the NFC South (take that TB 12), while the 2-1 Cowboys lead the NFC 'Least,' as its only winning team. BOTH are a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Carolina Panthers are surely one of the NFL's biggest surprises, while the Cowboys lone loss came at Tampa Bay (on a FG in the closing second). Dallas followed that tough loss with back-to-back wins, receiving kudos after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Panthers have won their first three games for the first time since 2015, when they played in the Super Bowl behind MVP Cam Newton. Carolina is led this season by NY Jet castoff Sam Darnold, who is completing 68.2% for 888 yards with three TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 99.0). He entered this season with a 45-39 TD-to-INT ratio and his career QB rating is 80.2. Darnold has been a real bright spot but look at the Carolina defense. It ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (191.0 YPG), passing yards allowed (146.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (245.0 YPFG), while ranking 2nd in points allowed (10.0 PPG).

"Dak is Back" for Dallas, completing 77.5% for 878 yards with six TDs and two INTs, after completing 21 of 26 for 238 yards with three TDs and no INTS last Monday night in a 41-21 win over the Eagles (his QB rating was 143.3 in that game!). He's got plenty of offensive 'weapons,' in WRs Lamb and Cooper plus TE Schultz (trio has a combined 51 catches and 5 TDs). RBs Elliott (199 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TDs) and RB Pollard (183 yards on 6.8 YPC and one TD) are both contributing. However, the Dallas defense is allowing 402.0 YPG.

Those Carolina defensive numbers are great and this is by far, the best defense Dallas has seen this year. The last thing Carolina wants to do is get into a shoot-out with Dallas and with do-everything RB McCaffrey sidelined, the Panthers are without their biggest and best offensive threat. Yes, the Dallas D is giving up a lot of yards (see above) but under new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, it's allowing a much better 23.0 PPG (13th), by forcing a league-best eight turnovers.

Carolina has played three straight unders to open the season and this number seems a little high to me. Expect Dak to struggle vs Carolina's defense and for Dan Quinn's defense to hold Carolina at bay, as he's very familiar with the Panthers from his days as Atlanta's head coach. Go Under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14).

The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th).

Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET.

The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.

Jalen Hurts has played well at QB for the Eagles, completing 67.2% for 454 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in 58 attempts. He's also the team's leading rusher with 144 yards, averaging 8.5 YPC (he had 82 rushing yards and a TD on the ground vs San Francisco). Hurts has been the focal point so far for Philadelphia this season but he's overshadowed a really good defense, one which is conceding just 11.5 PPG (3rd) on 283.0 YPG (6th).

Hurts' counterpart is Dak Prescott, who will be playing his first home game since his gruesome ankle injury at AT&T Stadium last October. Prescott had a HUGE game vs Tampa Bay (403 passing yards with three TDs) but threw for a more modest 237 yards in the win over the Chargers. However, the Cowboys had to be thrilled to see their running game produced 198 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. However, the Dallas defense is a concern. Dallas allowed 29.6 PPG in 2020 and while it is allowing 24.0 PPG through two games of 2021, the Cowboys are allowing 419.5 YPG (29th of 32 teams).

Looking closer at the matchups, Philly's Hurts has to 'love' the idea of facing a Dallas pass D that is allowing 346.0 YPG through the air (32nd). Hurts has plenty of weapons that will be able to exploit a weak (and injured) Dallas defensive line. Add in the fact that the Philly offense has zero giveaways through two games, which is also a GREAT sign for Philly backers. Meanwhile, Dak will go up against a strong Philly defense (see above), that is allowing only 162.5 YPG passing (4th-best). This is the best defense that the Cowboys have seen this season.

Take the points but expect a SU Philadelphia which will make them the 1st-place Eagles by Tuesday morning.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8).

The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly.

San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game.

Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday.

The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite.

San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Sea/Min Under at 4:25 ET.

1-1 Seattle pulled away for a 28-16 win at Indianapolis in Week 1 but then blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at home last Sunday in a 33-30 OT loss to Tennessee. Minnesota is 0-2 but is just two plays away from being 2-0. The Vikings lost 27-24 in OT at Cincy in Week 1 and at Arizona last Sunday, missed a 37-yard FG on the game's final play.

The Vikings are at home for the first time in 2021 this Sunday against Seattle. QBs Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are both off to great starts with Wilson completing 74.1% for 597 yards with six TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 146.9 is No. 1). Cousins is completing 71.6% for 595 yards with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 112.9. The duo has combined to attempt 135 passes through the season's first two weeks and neither has thrown a SINGLE interception.

Considering Seattle's defense ranks 30th in allowing 434.0 YPG and Minnesota is allowing 420.0 YPG (28th), maybe this is a 'dead-nuts' Over! Then again, maybe the Over is not such an easy call. The Seahawks have won SIX straight regular-season games against the Vikings, including a 27-26 victory last year in Seattle on a 6-yard TD pass from Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf with six seconds remaining. In fact, I think we'll witness another tight battle here as well, but I also expect a lower final combined score.

The Vikings have played two consecutive games decided by a FG attempt on the game's final play, with the Vikings coming out on the 'wrong' side of the make and miss. An 0-3 start all but ends any playoff hopes Minnesota brought into the season and Seattle sure wants/needs to move to 2-1, as the other three teams in the NFC West have all opened 2-0. Seattle is at the 49ers next week and the is home to the Rams the following week.

Expect a competitive game and a final score that stays Under the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET.

The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.

Las Vegas QB Derek Carr is off to a terrific start, passing for 817 yards in the two wins with four TDs, just one INT and a QB rating of 104.1. Miami's Tua Tagovailoa threw for 207 yards (one TD / one INT) plus ran for a TD in the win over the Patriots but then left the Buffalo game after just four pass attempts due to an injury. It turns out that he has fractured ribs and Miami will play without him on Sunday. Jacoby Brissett replaced Tua in the Buffalo game and threw for 169 yards and an interception on 24 of 40 passing after Tua left. His performance came on short notice but with a week to prepare, I expect a much better performance from Brissett. In fact, I don't see a big drop-off from Tua to Brissett.

Raiders head coach Jon Gruden said RB Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is "very questionable" for Sunday's game. In 2020, Jacobs became the first Raiders RB since Marcus Allen in 1983-85 to post consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Without Jacobs, who missed the Steelers game, the Raiders are relying on Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber. Good luck with that. Drake has 13 carries for just 20 yards (1.5 YPC) and Barber has 13 carries for 32 yards (2.5 YPC). What's more, the Raiders started a pair of backup guards against Pittsburgh and then lost right tackle Alex Leatherwood to an oblique injury

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Does the fact that the Raiders have lost SEVEN of their past eight games against the Dolphins mean all that much? I'm not sure but it's surely not a positive for Las Vegas. The Raiders have now crisscrossed the country for their first three games and note that the Raiders have won each of their first two games SU as underdogs. Las Vegas finished last season losing ATS in its last FOUR tries as a favorite! Meanwhile, the Dolphins had covered SIX in a row as an underdog before last Sunday and are on a current 6-0 ATS run following a SU loss! Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET.

Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.

The Pats began Year 2 without Tom Brady with a 17-16 home loss against Miami in Miami. Rookie QB Mac Jones finished 29-for-39 with 281 yards and a TD in his NFL debut. The Patriots outgained the Dolphins by 134 yards, converted 11 of 16 third-down attempts and controlled the clock, 36:43-23:17, yet somehow, the Pats found a way to lose by ONE point. It was a different story in Week 2, as the Pats beat the Jets for the 11th straight time, 25-6. The Pats' D dominated the Jets offense (six points on 260 yards) led by rookie QB Zach Wilson, who was picked off FOUR times plus was sacked FOUR times. Mac Jones has thrown for a modest 467 yards with one TD pass but he's completing 73.9% with zero INTs in 69 attempts. As for that New England defense, it's allowing just 11.5 PPG (3rd) on 297.5 YPG (5th)

The Saints are ranked 32nd in total offense (225.0 YPG and in passing yards (115.5 YPG( plus outstanding all-purpose RB Alvin Kamara has not come close to looking like the player of the last few seasons. With the Saints' first game being moved to Jacksonville (see above), this becomes their THIRD straight game away from home. The Patriots haven't seen a breakout performance from their young QB yet, but he's also made almost zero mistakes to this point, which absolutely points to his potential moving forward.

Expect New England to pull away for a comfortable win and COVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET.

The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest.

"Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.

Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W."

Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51?

The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic 'Best Bet' is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

Kansas City hosted the Browns in Week 1 (a rematch of a postseason matchup last year) and trailed from the opening kick-off until Mahomes led two fourth-quarter TD drives to give KC a 33-29 non-covering win. The Ravens opened Monday night in Las Vegas, where they lost a 33-27 OT thriller to the Raiders.

Mahomes passed for 337 yards with three TD passes and no INTs and he's now a PERFECT 11-0 in September games with 35 passing TDs and zero interceptions (unreal!). However, the KC defense wasn't able to slow the Cleveland offense, as Mayfield passed for 321 yards plus allowed the Browns to run for 153 yards (5.9 YPC).

The Ravens' RB corps has been decimated by injury but led by Lamar Jackson's 86 yards (7.2 YPC), Baltimore ran for 189 yards (5.6 YPC). Jackson completed 19 of 30 for 235 yards with one TD and no INTs.

The Chiefs are the most talked about and analyzed team in the NFL. Even more so than the Bucs. Even the most casual NFL can tell you the strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters for Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-20 on this field last season and deserve to be favored. However, let's return to the teams' Week 1 games. The Chiefs looked shaky for three-quarters last week, while the Ravens looked pretty good darned for three-quarters. However, KC won when the Browns 'woke up and remembered they were the Browns. As for the Ravens, they led 17-10 after three quarters, but an uncharacteristic meltdown in the fourth quarter saw them give up 17 points, before then losing by six more in OT.

Bottom line? Kansas City likely shouldn't have won last week and Baltimore likely shouldn't have lost. A loss by Baltimore here drops them to 0-2 with the next two games on the road. Note that Baltimore has covered its last five regular season games as an underdog. Can you say SIX in a row.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The 1-0 Chargers welcome the 0-1 Cowboys to Los Angeles on Sunday, looking to start a season 2-0 for the first time since 2012. The Chargers escaped with a 20-16 road victory at Washington in Week 1, while the Cowboys lost a 31-29 heart-breaker at Tampa on Opening Night (on a last-second FG) and now look to avoid starting a season 0-2 for the first time since 2010. 

Dak Prescott was 42 of 58 for 403 yards, three touchdowns and an INT in the Cowboys Week 1 loss. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers last weekend. Neither QB got any help from his running game, as Dallas ran for only 60 on 3.3 YPC (Elliott had just 33 yards) and Los Angeles ran for 90 yards on 3.1 YPC (Ekeler led with 57 yards).

The big difference was on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas forced Tampa into four takeaways but still allowed 31 points on 431 yards. As for the Chargers' D, it held Washington to 16 points on only 259 yards.

Prescott looked great in his first game back from a gruesome, season-ending leg injury last year. However, in the end, the Cowboys' poor offensive ways from last season carried over and in the end cost the team a victory. In comparison, LA converted 14-of-19 third down attempts. The 14 third-down conversions were the most by any team in the last decade in a single game. That number included Herbert and the offense converting four straight third downs to seal the victory at the end of the game.

Both teams have tough games coming up. The Cowboys host the Eagles next Monday, while the Chargers travel to KC to face the Chiefs. Here's what I see in LA from the Chargers. The team is healthier, has an upgraded offensive line, improved special teams and solid coaching now with Brandon Staley in for Anthony Lynn. Herbert passed a major test against an aggressive Washington defense in Week 1 and now he faces likely one of the worst units in the entire league. I don't see any regression happening for Herbert, especially not against this weak Cowboys defense, which will be playing without its top pass-rushers. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence fractured his foot in Wednesday's practice

The Cowboys are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games (going back to late 2019) and I don't see them 'sneaking' under the number again this week at a MUCH-improved Chargers team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.

The Cardinals looked great in their 38-13 destruction at Tennessee in Week 1 over the Titans. However, I think it's possible they just may get caught a little too contented here against a dangerous Vikings team looking to bounce back from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Cincinnati.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was 36 of 49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns (both to Adam Thielen, who caught nine balls). RB Dalvin Cook was "off his game with just had 61 yards (3.1 YPC) and a TD, while adding four catches for 43 Yards.

The Vikings D allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 261 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) plus allowed Joe Mixon 127 yards rushing. The defense will have to play MUCH better, as Kyler Murray is the best combination passer/runner among all NFC quarterbacks. He threw for 289 yards at Tennessee with four TF+D passes plus ran for a fifth score. Hopkins and Kirk are two outstanding WRs and each caught a pair of TDs.

That said, the Vikes had to deal with a couple of unlucky bounces at the end of their game with Bengals. As long as Kirk Cousins isn't playing in prime time, he's usually very solid. He was last week as well in the loss, but either way, I do think Minnesota can keep this very competitive again.

Arizona is unfamiliar with being as home favorite, as it has happened just NINE time since the start of the 2018 and guess what? Thar cards are just 2-7 ATS in that roll. Yes, I have to point out that Minnesota's Week 1 loss is the team's EIGHTH consecutive ATDS loss going back to Week 11 of 2020.

My answer to that is this team is TOO talented for that to continues and I say this a "perfect" spot for not just an ATS win but a SU one. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET.

Cincinnati held on for dear life in an emotional 27-24 OT win over the Vikings in Week 1. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter, including a game-tying 53-yard FG (0:00) to send the game into OT. However, Cincy did eke out the win. Meanwhile, the Bears 'took it on the chin' in LA in the season's first Sunday night game, losing 34-14. It was just 13-7 at the half but the Rams won the second half 21-7, as Stafford threw for 321 yards and three TDs in his LA debut.

Joe Burrow was solid (20 of 27 for 261 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) plus RB Mixon was a pleasant surprise with 127 rushing yards. However, the Cincy 2ndy was riddled by Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two INTs without an INT despite 49 attempts. As noted above, Chicago's 2ndy wasn't any better than Cincy's. Veteran Andy Dalton is the Chicago starter at QB and he did not play well in his Chicago debut. However, the Bears did run for 134 yards (5.2 YPC) with Montgomery getting 108 on 6.8 YPC.

Taking a look at this game reminds me that the worst thing bettors can do is to overreact at the beginning of the season. Not every team that struggles in Week 1 will continue to do so (and vice versa). Being successful in the NFL is much like handicapping the NFL, as making adjustments from week to week is crucial. The good news for the Bears? The NFC North is wide open, as Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay also all lost. The Packers looked pathetic.

The Bengals on the other hand, are at their arch-nemesis Pittsburgh next week, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Jaguars. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a solid great situational play, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a 20 points or greater SU loss in its previous outing. What's more, Cincy head coach begins his third season with the Benagls and over the first two, the Bengals are just 2-14 SU on the road. Not much to 'cover' here and I expect Dalton to lead the Bears to a VERY satisfying win, that would at worst, leave them tied for the division lead. Small steps.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Featured Sunday Total is on SF/Phi Over at 1:00 ET.

A couple of confident 1-0 teams collide in Week 2 and everything points to a shootout, rather than a chess match.

San Francisco got an excellent game from QB Jimmy G (17 of 25 for 314 yards with one TD and zero INTs) and opened up a 38-10 lead in the 3rd quarter at Detroit last Sunday, However, the Lions scored 23 points in the final 16 1/2-minutes of the game to get the 'back-door' cover. That second half defense collapse doesn't bode well heading to Philadelphia to face Jalen Hurts and this high-flying Eagles offense.

Philadelphia only had a 15-6 halftime lead over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday, but it dominated the second half en route to a 32-rout. QB Jalen Hurts looked sharp, finishing with 264 passing yards and three TDs, to three different receivers also had 62 rushing yards. RB Miles Sanders is healthy (that's BIG deal) and he added 74 rushing yards plus 39 receiving yards.

Shutting down Atlanta is one thing, but doing the same to the 49ers will be much more difficult.

San Francisco posted an 8.0-yard average while on offense. It did lose a couple fumbles (still scored 41 points) but it punted only twice and it conceded just a single sack.

Making this an over play is that the San Francisco pas D allowed Detroit's Jared Goff to throw for 338 yards and three TDs. This game will be competitive and VERY high-scoring.

The play is the over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC East) is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott took over the Bills in 2017 and promptly ended Buffalo's 17-year postseason drought. As he enters fifth season as Buffalo's head coach, he's led the Bills to THREE playoff appearances in his first four seasons, including falling just ONE win shy of the team's first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season in 2020 when they lost the AFC championship game 38-24 at KC. Miami's Brian Flores begins his third season with the Dolphins and his team just missed a playoff berth in 2020, finishing 10-6. Optimism was running high in Miami entering 2021, especially for a franchise that has made just TWO playoff appearances in the previous 19 years!

The teams got off two different starts in Week 1, as the Bills were upset 23-16 at home by the Steelers, while the Dolphins ruined Mac Jones' NFL debut with a 17-16 win in New England. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, seven coming on a blocked punt TD return. Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2021 but looked no better than OK, throwing for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) but that came on 51 attempts! In the end, Allen led his team to just 16 points!

Tua Tagovailoa had 202 passing yards, one TD, and one INT last week He got little help from a running game that was held to just 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC). The Miami defense allowed Jones to throw for 281 yards (no INTs) and RB Harris had 100 yards on the ground but in the end, the Pats could only muster 16 points (the one stat that matters MOST!).

It might be easy to call for a Buffalo bounce back after a humbling home loss to the Steelers in Week 1, but the Bills may just be the most overhyped team in the league. My call here is for Miami to earn a second straight AFC East win, as the Dolphins jelled in the second half of last season and opened 2021 with a win over Belichick in his backyard last Sunday. Miami left backers smiling down the stretch of 2020, covering SIX straight at home, winning FIVE of them SU (lone loss, but an ATS win, was against KC).

Josh Allen is NO Patrick Mahomes and how sweet would a Miami win be? The Dolphins were the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 and a "W" in this one would move them to 2-0, with the Bills falling to 0-2. That's what I expect and any points are just a bonus.

Good luck...Larry