| NFL Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 44 m | Show |
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My 10* SB 56 Super Pick is on the LA Rams at 6:30 ET. The Super Bowl is back in the Los Angeles mark for the EIGHTH time, as only Miami (11) and New Orleans (10) have hosted more. Sunday's game will be played at SoFi Stadium (home to the Rams), as for the SECOND consecutive year a team has played host to a Super Bowl playing in its home stadium (the Bucs hosted SB 55 last year at Raymond James). No team had hosted a Super Bowl in its home stadium for the first 54 Super Bowls but it's now happened in back-to-back seasons. Could the Cards make it three years in a row by hosting next year's Super Bowl in Glendale, Az? Seems like a stretch but how many had the Bengals, coming off a 4-11-1 year and having last won a playoff game in the 1990 season, reaching this year's Super Bowl? Or for that matter, how many had the Rams as the NFC favorite to be here, led by Matthew Stafford and his 0-3 career record in the postseason during his 12 years with the Lions? Anyway, it's the Bengals and Rams in Super Bowl 56, playing in the same city as the first-ever Super Bowl. That game was played in the LA Coliseum, as Lombardi's Packers beat Hank Stram's Chief 35-10. The game was played on Jan 15, 1967 (1966 season) with the official merger not coming until the start of the 1970 season. Those were the days! |
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| 01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
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My 9* NFC West Game of the Year (late-Breaker) is on the LA Rams at 6:40 ET. Who'da thunk it? Sean McVay of the Rams, and Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers were both hired within a month of each other in 2017 and now, the winner of Sunday's NFC championship game will be making his second Super Bowl appearance in a five-year span. The Rams made it to Super Bowl 53 but lost 13-3 to the Pats and the 49ers made it to Super Bowl 54, where they lost 31-20 to the Chiefs. The 49ers were just 3-5 through Week 9 but would go 7-2 SU & ATS down the stretch. San Francisco came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Rams 27-24 in OT in Week 18, capped by a walk-off interception, after they had kicked a FG in the OT period. That "W" beat out the Saints for the NFC's last unclaimed spot. As for the Rams, they opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth (at best) and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games (Cards would finish 2-4) and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (see above), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle.
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| 01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -125 | 152 h 44 m | Show |
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My 10* 'Signature' 38-Club Play is on the KC Chiefs at 3:00 ET. The just-completed Divisional Round is being hailed as the NFL's "Greatest Postseason Weekend of All-Time" and you won't get an argument from me. Everyone has either watched, seen the highlights of or read the countless recaps of the four games, so I'll move on. The 2021 NFL season is down to its version of a 'Final Four, on January 30th, or Championship Sunday, if you prefer. The Cincinnati Bengals entered the postseason without a playoff win in 31 years but here in January, have won TWO playoff games in a seven-day span! After a 19-16 win over the Titans (on a last-second FG), the Bengals have advanced to the AFC Championship for the 1st time since the 1988 season, the same year in which they lost the 'John Candy Super Bowl' to the SF 49ers of Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Ronnie Lott. Awaiting them at Arrowhead Stadium will be the KC Chiefs, who edged the Buffalo Bills 42-36 in what's being called 'the greatest game' in NFL history! I'm sure that statement could be debated, but one would have to come up with quite an argument. The Chiefs, who played in Super I and then won Super Bowl IV, the last played prior to the 1970 merger, now become the first team in NFL history to host a conference championship in FOUR consecutive seasons. |
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| 01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 132 h 48 m | Show |
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My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET. The Bills and Chiefs met in last year's AFC championship game, with KC winning at home. The two teams opened the 2021 season as favorites to meet again in this season's title game and while the Bills and Chiefs are meeting in the 2021 postseason (again in Kansas City), it's ONE week sooner than anticipated. However, at one point during the recently completed regular season a Buff/KC Part 2 was NOT looking likely. Buffalo was shocked in Week 1 at home by the Steelers (lost 23-16) and while the Bills rebounded quickly with FOUR straight wins, they would lose FIVE of their next eight to fall to 7-6, falling TWO games behind the 9-4 Pats. However, the Bills ended the season with FOUR straight wins (including a 33-21 victory in New England) to finish 11-6, while the Pats' lost THREE of four. The 11-6 Bills won the AFC East, with the Pats earning a wild card berth. The Bills hosted the Pats in the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend and I'm pretty sure you KNOW how that turned out (more later, in case you missed it). The Chiefs entered the current season off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (1-1) and having won FIVE consecutive AFC West titles. However, after just SEVEN games, the Chiefs were a sub-.500 team at 3-4! The 'cry' went out, "What's wrong with the Chiefs and in particular, Patrick Mahomes?" KC answered that question emphatically, going 9-1 to finish the regular season 12-5 and win the AFC West for the SIXTH straight season. However, that ONE loss (34-31 at Cincy on a last-second FG), cost KC the No. 1 seed. Tennessee (also 12-5) won the tiebreaker over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage (Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3 in Tennessee back in Week 7!). Again, in case you were asleep, the Chiefs beat the Steeklers 42-21 last weekend in a wild card game. Buffalo's Josh Allen (63.3% for 4,407 yards with 36 TDs and 15 INTs / 763 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC with 6 TDs) had a terrific season (again!) He then set a team playoff record with five TD passes in a 47-17 DESTRUCTION of the division-rival Patriots in a wild-card playoff game. Buffalo became the NFL's first team in the Super Bowl era to score on each of its seven possessions that didn't end with a kneel down. Allen completed 21 of 25 for 308 yards without an INT (QB rating of 157.8!), while adding 66 rushing yards. RB Singletary (870 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) ran for 81 yards and two TDs, while TE Knox (49 catches / 9 TDs) had two TD receptions. Allen has a terrific group of WRs, led by Diggs (103 catches / 10 TDs) plus Beasley (82 catches), Sanders (42 / 14.9 / 4 TDs) and Davis (35 / 15.7 / 6 TDs). Buffalo's offense ranked 3rd in scoring (28.4 PPG) but its defense was No. in the NFL in points allowed (17.0) and yards allowed (272.8). That's a pretty sweet 'daily double.' Mahomes had an 'average' season (for him), completing 66.3 % for 4,839 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs (ho hum!). He then completed 30 of 39 for 404 yards with five TD passes and one iNT in the rout of Pittsburgh. RBs Williams (558 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 TDs) and Edwards-Helaire (517 yards on 4.3 YPC with 4 TDs) have missed time all season. Both are questionable here but McKinnon, who ran for just 62 yards all season, ran 12 times for 61 yards (5.1 YPC) vs Pittsburgh. The Chiefs own the best WR-TE duo in the NFL with Hill (111 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (92 catches / 9 TDs) plus have depth at WR in Hardeman (59 catches) and Pringle (42 catches / 5 TDs). The KC offense has averaged 28.2 PPG (4th) but the defense has allowed 368.9 YPG, ranking 27th. The good news is that KC is allowing a more modest 21.4 PPG, which ranks 8th-best. The point spread here indicates that Buffalo would be a favorite on a neutral field and maybe that's right, as the Bills crushed the Chiefs 38-10 at KC back in Week 5. However, doesn't that give KC even more incentive here? Allen was great vs the Pats but note that in last year's AFC title game, Allen was badly outplayed by Mahomes. Allen threw 48 times (28 completions for 287 yards with two TDs and one INT (QB rating of 80.8). Meanwhile, Mahomes was 29 of 38 for 325 yards with three Tds and zero INTs for a 127.6 QB rating. Mahomes is 7-2 as a starter in the playoffs, losing only to Tom Brady (against the Pats in the 2018 AFC championship game) and in last year's Super Bowl vs the Bucs. Allen has become a star but he's NO Brady. My closing note is this. In SEVEN home playoff games (6-1 / loss to Brady and the Pats), Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his passes, while averaging 310.3 YPG passing. He's thrown 20 TDs passes in those seven, against just ONE interception in 249 attempts. KC "all the way!" Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 49 m | Show |
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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 4:30 ET. Zac Taylor arrived in Cincinnati for the 2019 season and the Bengals struggled to a 2-14 finish. Cincy then drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft but Burrow was lost in the 10th game of the season, as the Bengals would only slightly improve by going 4-11-1. However, the Bengals went 10-7 in 2021 and won the AFC North for the first time since 2015. Then last Saturday, Joe Burrow led his team to its first playoff victory in 31 years, 26-19 over Las Vegas in an AFC wild-card game. Burrow (24 of 34 with 244 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs for a QB rating of 110.4) led an efficient offense that scored on SIX drives. PK Evan McPherson became the first rookie to make four FGs without a miss in a postseason debut, and Germaine Pratt sealed it with a fourth-down interception in the dying seconds. It was a victory three decades in the making for the Bengals (last playoff win came back in 1990!) After going from worst to first in the AFC North with a generally young roster, the Bengals ended that embarrassingly long postseason drought that included EIGHT consecutive defeats. Mike Vrabel took over in Nashville in 2018 and after back-to-back 9-7 seasons, his Titans have now won the AFC South in two consecutive years, going 11-5 in 2020 and 12-5 here in 2021. Note, Tennessee's wild card team of 2019, made it all the way to the AFC championship game (1st time in 17 years!), before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions Chiefs. This year's team not only won the AFC South but also earned the AFC's overall No. 1 seed, giving them last weekend off. Burrow has had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs. RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase (also from LSU) caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus is joined by fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs) plus TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs). The Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons. The Titans were 6-2 when RB Derrick Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill (67.2% / 3,734 yards / 21-14 ratio) has had to shoulder more of the load, and he was often not up to the challenge. However, at 8-4, the Titans would win FOUR other their last five, including THREE straight to end the regular season, clinching the No. 1 seed. Kudos to Tannehill, who in that three-game winning streak, completed 73.4% of his passes with a 7-0 TD/INT ratio). WR Brown 63 catches / 13.8 YPC / 5 TDs) is the team's best receiver but Westbrook-Ikhine (38 / 5 TDs) and the now-healthy Juliuo Jones (31 / 14.0 YPC) are reliable targets. The Tennessee defense is stout, allowing 20.8 PPG (6th) and ranks second in the league in rushing yards allowed (84.8). Congrats to the Bengals but note they had just 308 total yards vs the Raiders and constantly settled for FGs. RB Mixon was held to 48 yards rushing on 2.8 YPC and the Tennessee rush D is a 'tough nut to crack' (see above). Henry could be back here and what a bonus that would be. However, I'm "all over" the Titans, either way. Consider the following. Both sides went 4-2 vs eventual playoff teams, but if we dig a little deeper, we see those records aren't equal. Both the Colts and Chargers were favored to win in Week 18, but they both lost. Tennessee would have been 6-2 against playoff teams if Tennessee and Los Angeles had won in the final week (and that's to go along with impressive victories over the Chiefs and Rams). If that scenario had played out, the Bengals would have been just 1-3 vs playoff destined teams. I noted the Tennessee D earlier but here's more. The Titans went from allowing 384 yards and 26.8 points a game during the first six weeks to only 300.3 yards and 17.5 points during the final 11 games, holding four of their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Tennessee went 7-2 SU at home and head coach Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU & ATS following a bye, beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points! Cincy is 'One & Done' this playoff season. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -4 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 86 h 37 m | Show |
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My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 and through Week 13, stood at 10-2. However, the Cards would lose FOUR of their last five (lone exception was a 25-22 win at Dallas in Week 17 that clinched a playoff spot) to finish 11-6. That left them ONE game worse than the LA Rams, who captured the NFC West with a 12-5 record. The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. That sets the stage for Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. The Cardinals-Rams primetime showdown will be the third meeting between the teams, with the road team having won the previous two. The game will not only be Kyler Murray's playoff debut, but it will be the Cardinals' first appearance in the playoffs since 2015, when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round but were blown out by the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. As for the Rams, they are in the playoffs for the FOURTH time in Sean McVay's five seasons as head coach. This time around the Rams' QB is Matthew Stafford, who after 12 seasons with Detroit (where he put up monster numbers), will take the field looking to earn his first-ever playoff game (0-3 with the Lions!). Murray completed 68.2% for 3,787 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. He missed three games during the regular season and hasn't been quite the same in his return, with just five TD passes in five games, without a rushing TD (had five in his first nine games!). He has really missed WR Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), who last played on Dec 13 (still not available). Kirk (77 catches / 5 TDs) has had an excellent season and veteran AJ Green (54 catches / 15.7 TYPC / 3 TDs) has shown flashes of his earlier brilliance, but only at times. Rookie WR Moore has added a 'quiet' 54 catches (just 8.1 YPC) and TE Ertz (acquired from the Eagles in a trade during the season), has added 56 catches in his 11 games with the Cards. RB Conner has been hurt down the stretch but returned in Week 18 (52 yards and a TD), giving him 752 yards rushing on the season (just 3.7 YPC) but an impressive 15 TDs. His RB partner is Edmonds, who has run for 592 yards on 5.1 YPC. The Arizona defense has played well, holding opponents to 21.5 PPG (12th). Stafford has put up terrific numbers in his Detroit career but his move to LA was seen as a "get out of jail" opportunity. Stafford has put up excellent numbers again, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Cooper Kupp set a Rams-record 1,947 receiving yards, while he also pulled off the WR 'triple crown,' leading the NFL in receptions (145), TDs (16) and receiving yards. Veteran WR Woods (45 catches / 4 TDs) was lost during the regular season but Jefferson (a third-year pro) has 50 catches on 16.0 YPC with 5 TDs. TE Higbee has 61 catches with 5 TDs. RB Sony Michel has run for 845 yards (4.1 YPC / 4 TDs), averaging 99.4 YPG during the team's five-game winning streak and Cam Akers may be "ready to go!" The LA defense has not been as good as it's been in previous seasons but does check in allowing 21.9 PPG (1th). Not bad. Here's the rub. The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road and while the Cardinals may have been the best team in the NFL up until late October. They’ve gone downhill losing (1-4 finish) and Kyler Murray hasn’t regained his early season dominance. He greatly misses the dynamic Hopkins, out for the season with a knee injury plus Murray’s running skills have diminished. Remember, this is Murray's first playoff start and he's had just two multiple touchdown games since Week 7. Stafford's 0-3 in the playoffs all time, but that was THEN and this is NOW. Stafford has thrown five TDs to one INT in two games against the Cardinals this year. It's "now or never" for the veteran. I'm laying the points and I'm also expecting an "A-effort" by Aaron Donald and the LA defense. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | Top | 15-31 | Loss | -118 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
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My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles opened the season 3-6 but then won SIX of seven to clinch a playoff spot, so their 51-26 loss at home to Dallas in Week 18 meant nothing. Coming off a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the 9-8 Eagles now set their sights on upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs on Sunday in Tampa. The 13-4 Bucs won the NFC South for the first time since 2007, behind their 'second-year' QB Tom Brady. Rumor has it that Brady previously played for the Patriots, achieving a certain level of success.
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| 01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET. The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills split their two regular season meetings (the visiting team won both games) and the two AFC East rivals are set for a rare third meeting (in the same season) on Saturday night in Orchard Park, NY. When's the last time the Pats and Bills squared off in a playoff game? If you guessed Dec 28, 1963, you win a lollipop. The then-Boston Patriots and the Buffalo Bills tied for the AFL's East Division title with records of 7-6-1 and met to decide which team would advance to the AFL championship game against the then-San Diego Chargers (11-3). The Pats dominated the Bills at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo and then went on to take on the Chargers at San Diego's Balboa Stadium. The Pats should have saved themselves the trip, as the Chargers won 51-10. Fullback Keith Lincoln rushed for 206 yards on 13 carries, led the team with 123 yards in receiving, and completed a pass for 20 yards. Other than that, he was a non-factor. One last tidbit. The Chargers' 1963 championship win remains the ONLY major sports title for the city of San Diego, the longest drought for a major American city! There is no doubt that the Bills are the better team on paper but the game is NOT played on paper. In fact, the weather report may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Pats and head coach Belichick, who isn't attending his 'first rodeo!' Consider the following. |
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| 01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
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My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET. A meeting of 9-7 AFC West rivals (the Chargers and Raiders) on SNF in the final game of the league's first 17-game regular season includes this kicker: the winner earns a spot in the NFL playoffs. The Chargers were 8-5 through 13 games but lost at home in OT to KC and then lost at Houston to the lowly Texans, 41-29, falling to 8-7. Los Angeles arrives in Las Vegas feeling pretty fortunate to be 9-7 (and still 'alive'), after beating the Broncos 34-13 in Week 17 at home. The Raiders were 5-2 coming off a Week 8 bye but then went in the 'tank,' losing FIVE of their next six games However, they closed with three consecutive victories, including a 23-20 nail-biter last week at favored Indianapolis on a last-second 33-yard FG. That sets the stage for the final regular season game of the 2021 season.
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| 01-09-22 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The Arizona Cardinals went into Dallas in Week 17 and won 25-22, clinching a playoff berth for the first time since 2015 (I had Arizona as my Game of the Month, just saying!). Arizona opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last 22-16 at home to the Colts in Week 16, had lost three in a row before last Sunday's win. The Cardinals can still win the NFC West title and earn a home playoff game, by beating the Seattle Seahawks. That is, if the 49ers can beat the Rams in LA. That's hardly far-fetched, as San Francisco has beaten Los Angeles FIVE straight times! As for the 6-10 Seahawks, they will finish with a losing record for the first time in the decade-long Russell Wilson/Bobby Wagner era. Seattle does come in off an outstanding effort, having snapped a two-game slide last weekend with a 51-29 victory over the visiting Detroit Lions. |
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| 01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -1 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
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My 10* MNF Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at *:15 ET. The 7-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers entered the weekend with the 11th-best record in the AFC, while the 7-8 Cleveland Browns (7-8) held the 12th position. In the AFC North, the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals were in the lead and the 8-7 Baltimore Ravens held second place. However, the Browns and Steelers were scheduled for MNF, AFTER the other 30 teams played 15 games on Sunday. Now, as the Browns and Steelers get set to square off tonight at Heinz Field, Sunday's results have led to this scenario. The Browns have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Steelers are still 'alive.' However, 'alive' means that to clinch a playoff berth the Steelers need to win tonight at home vs the Browns, then win next Sunday at Baltimore, PLUS they will need the Colts to lose at 2-14 Jacksonville next Sunday. Paraphrasing former President Bill Clinton, "It depends on what your definition of alive is?" The Browns arrive in Pittsburgh having lost THREE of four, including dropping their last two by TWO points (at home to the Raiders in Week 15 and at Green Bay in Week 16).The Steelers can 'feel Cleveland's pain,' as they get set to host their longtime rivals having gone 2-4-1 over their last seven games. "If you're a Browns fan, you're frustrated," defensive end Myles Garrett (career-best 15 sacks) said. "If you're a Browns player, you're frustrated. If you have anything to do with us, you know that. We've had chances, we just haven't converted or capitalized. I can't tell you how frustrated we are or I am." Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has come under fire for a subpar season in which he has 15 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions (his ratio was 26-8 last season). Mayfield was picked off FOUR times in the loss at Green Bay. Mayfield may be happy to be playing this game in the 'friendly confines' of Heinz Field, as he has been booed at home for the first time in his four-year NFL career. Mayfield's "opposite number" is 18-year veteran Ben Roethlisberger. The two-time Super Bowl champion is in the homestretch of his 18th season and 'rumor has it,' that this will likely be Big Ben's final regular season home game. Roethlisberger ranks fifth in NFL history with 63,721 passing yards and eighth with 416 passing TDs. The 'talk' all season has been that he has NOTHING left, but Mayfield can only 'dream' of matching Big Ben's numbers in 2021. Roethlisberger has completed 65.2% for 3,373 yards (over 500 more yards than Mayfield has thrown for) with 20 TDs and just 8 INTs. The Steelers beat the Browns 15-10 in Cleveland back on Oct 31, when they scored the game's final 12 points. Roethlisberger passed for 266 yards and the go-ahead TD. I really like Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, who became the first Browns head coach since Romeo Crennel in 2007 to lead the franchise to a winning season, going 11-5 in his very first year with the Browns (2020). last seasonStefanski led the Browns to a 11–5 record, finishing third in the AFC North and clinching the Browns' first playoff berth since 2002. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers (at Pittsburgh) in a wild card game. This is a bitter rivalry and the Browns would 'LOVE' nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's chance at making the playoffs but Mike Tomlin, who arrived in Pittsburgh back 2007, has built quite a resume in his time with the Steelers. As the saying goes, "this isn't his first rodeo," while the same can be said regarding Big Ben. Steelers stay 'alive' and head to Baltimore with the hope of beating the Ravens, while 'rooting' for the Jags at home vs the Colts. First things, FIRST. Take the Steelers. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-02-22 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
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My NFL 10* Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET. The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last Saturday 22-16 at home to the Colts (the team's third straight loss), the Cards check in at 10-5, giving them just the fifth-best record in the NFC. The Cards welcome the Cowboys to the desert, a team that has won FOUR in a row after crushing Washington 56-14 last Sunday night. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and at 11-4, own tiebreakers over both the 11-4 Rams and Bucs, giving them the No. 2 seed behind only the 12-3 Packers.
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| 01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs were 3-4 through seven games this season and the refrain was, "What's wrong with the Chiefs?" No one is asking that question now, as KC comes to Cincinnati on an 8-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), having clinched the AFC West for SIXTH consecutive years. The 11-4 Chiefs hold a one-game advantage over 10-5 Tennessee in the chase for the first-round bye and home field advantage that goes to the top seed. However, a real challenge awaits against the 9-6 Bengals, who only need one win to clinch their first AFC North title since 2015. QB Joe Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 yards passing in a rout of Baltimore in Week 16, completing 37 of 46 with four TDs. It's been quite a bounce-back season for Burrow and the Bengals, as Cincy went just 4-11-1 in Burrow's rookie season (he played just 10 games before being lost for the rest of the season to injry). However, the former No. 1 overall pick hasn't missed a game this season, completing 69.9% for 4,165 yards with 30 TDs and 14 INTs. WR Tee Higgins has been surging, posting 583 yards receiving in the last five games. Both Higgins (71 catches / 6 TDs) and rookie Ja'Marr Chase (68 catches / 10 TDs) have more than 1,000 receiving yards on the season. A third WR, Boyd, has 63 catches with 4 TDs and TE Uzomah adds 45 catches and 5 TDs. RB Joe Mixon ranks second among NFL rushers with 1,159 yards (has 13 rushing TDs plus adds 3 more on 35 catches). Speaking of defenses, Cincy's has allowed just 21.6 PPG (13th) this season, after allowing an average of 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons. |
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| 01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens +6.5 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. What a difference a month can make. The Rams sat 7-1 at the close of October but would go 0-3 in November (had a bye week) and at 7-4, expected their only chance at a playoff berth was as a wild card. However, LA ripped off FOUR straight wins (while the Cards have imploded) and at 11-4, now own a one-game lead in the NFC West with two games to go and have already clinched at least a wild card berth. As for LA's Week 17 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens were 8-3 through Week 12 but welcomed the Rams to Baltimore on a four-game losing streak that dropped them to 8-7. The Ravens are currently one of FOUR, 8-7 AFC teams looking to secure the last wild card spot (Dolphins currently own the tiebreakers with two games left).
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| 12-26-21 | Bills +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 8 m | Show |
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My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The Buffalo (8-6) came up short in a 14-10 loss to New England on a snowy and windy night on Dec 6 at Orchard Park, NY but following the Bills' 31-14 win over Carolina, and New England's 27-17 loss at Indianapolis last weekend (that snapped a 7-0 run SU & ATS by the Pats), the AFC East division is back in play this Sunday. A Buffalo win over the 9-5 Patriots would return the Bills to the top of the AFC East standings entering the final two weeks of the regular season, as a victory would give Buffalo a superior division record over New England. As for the Pats, they will be looking to bounce back from their first loss in over two months (see above). The post-bye week loss dropped the Patriots to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind the Kansas City Chiefs, and then they dropped to No. 3 Thursday night after the Tennessee Titans defeated the San Francisco 49ers to move to 10-5. The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth through a few different outcomes this weekend, but more importantly, they can lock up the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss on Monday night.
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| 12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 32 m | Show |
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My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cards at 8:15 ET. The Indianapolis Colts opened the season 0-3 and 1-4, before winning SEVEN of their last nine (56-3 ATS) to climb back into playoff contention at 8-6. However, the Colts got some bad news on Thursday when the Titans kicked a 44-yard field goal with FOUR seconds remaining to rally from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the 49ers 20-17. The 10-5 Titans are now a win or a Colts' loss away from clinching their second straight AFC South title. At this moment, the Colts are one FIVE teams at 8-6. The Bengals would currently win the AFC North but the Colts (thru tiebreakers), currently hold down the AFC's No. 5 seed.
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| 12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
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My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET. The SF 49ers lost 31-17 at home to Arizona on Nov 7 but they have rebounded to win FIVE of their last six to reach 8-6. San Francisco currently owns the sixth-best record in the NFC, as the 49ers head to Tennessee on Thursday night. The Titans lost their Week 1 game at home to Arizona but then won EIGHT of nine. That said, the Titans 'limp' into this contest having lost THREE of four (lone win came 20-0 over the hapless Jags) but at 9-5, still lead the AFC South by one game over the Colts. |
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| 12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
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My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET. The 6-7 Minnesota Vikings will look to bolster their chances of making the playoffs when they visit the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Minnesota is among a crowded group of NFC teams that are chasing potential wild-card berths. The Vikings are coming off a 36-28 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and have THREE wins in their last five games. The Vikings will move up to the No. 7 spot if they beat the Bears on Monday night and they'll stay there if Washington loses Tuesday to the Eagles. The homestanding Chicago Bears enter the contest 4-9 and just looking for a bright spot in what has been a dreary season. The Bears have SEVEN of theri last eight. Rookie QB Justin Fields has offered glimpses of his potential but he also has endured growing pains in his first season out of Ohio State. There are NO 'growing pains' for Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins, who is completing 66.9% for 3,569 yards with 27 TDs and 5 INTs (103.5 rating). RB Cook returned in Week 14 to run for 205 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh. He needs only 22 rushing yards to reach the 1,000-yard milestone for the third season in a row. He is averaging 119.7 yards from scrimmage (97.8 rushing, 21.9 receiving) in 10 games this season. WR Justin Jefferson (2,688) needs 68 receiving yards for the most in NFL history in a player's first two seasons in the Super Bowl era. He has 85 catches (15.2 YPC) and 8 TDs. WR Thielen has 64 catches and 10TDs but missed last week (he's questionable here). The Vikings average 26.5 PPG (9th) but allow 25.6 PPG (25th). I referred to Fields earlier and he enters (in 11 games) completing just 57.6% for 1,585 with 6 TDs and 10 INTs. He did pass frpo 224 yards with two TDs plus ran for 74 more yards last week vs Green Bay but also threw two INTs. Chicago led the Packers 27-21 at the half but got outscored 24-3 in the second half. That game kind of sums up Chicago's 4-9 season. RB Montgomery has 608 yards on 4.2 YPC with 4 TDs and the Chicago receiving corps is very mediocre. The Bears average only 17.8 PPG (28th) and allow 25.5 PPG (24th). There every reason to think Minnesota should win this game but I'm guessing MOST thought that the Bucs(at home) would beat the Saints! Final Score: Saints 9 Bucs 0! The Vikings nearly blew a 29-0 lead last week, hanging on by forcing an incomplete pass in the end zone on the final play. Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent this season, so how can one trust them? Note that the Bears have won FIVE of the last six meetings between these two "Black & Blue" division rivals. Want more? Cousins enter the NFL in 2012 and in his career with Washington and Minnesota, owns an 0-9 record on MNF. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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| 12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
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My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the Cin Bengals at 4:05 ET. Cincy QB Joe Burrow was limited to 10 games as a rookie and the Bengals finished 4-11-1. It was the franchise's 5th consecutive losing season, after being a playoff team, in SIX of seven seasons between 2009-15. The Broncos would go 5-11 in 2020, the team's FIFTH consecutive losing season as well, after winning the team's third Super Bowl ring in the 2015 season. The Bengals were 7-4 after a 41-10 Week 12 win over Pittsburgh but then dropped the last two games (BOTH at home), 41-22 to the Chargers and 26-23 in OT vs the 49ers. The Broncos surprised most (all?) by opening 3-0, but promptly lost FOUR in a row. However, Denver has recovered to win FOUR of its last six and now matches the Bengals at 7-6. The Bengals are still right in the AFC North race (Ravens lead at just 8-4) but the Broncos are hardly a threat in the AFC West, as the Chiefs are 9-4, after winning FOUR in a row. That said, BOTH are in a jam-packed race for one of three AFC wild card spots. Burrow comes in completing 68.8% for 3,483 yards with 25 TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 100.6). RB Mixon is having a creer season, rushing for 1,038 yards and 12 TDs, plus has 28 catches for two more scores. LSU rookie WR Chase (No. 5 overall pick) leads with 60 catches (17.3 YPC / 10 TDs) and Higgins is up to 57 catches (14.2 YPC / 4 TDs), having caught 20 pases the last three games, after missing two games. The third WR is Boyd (55 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Uzomah has 37 catches and 5 TDs. Cincy allows 22.5 PPG (17th) but note that's an improvement over the last seasons, when the Bengals allowed an average of 27.1 PPG. Denver QB Bridgewater flies under the radar, completing 67.6 % for 2,954 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. His WR group can't match Burrow's, with Sutton (48 catches / 2 TDs) and Patrick (42 catches / 4 TDs). However, TE Fant leads the team with 53 catches. Denver has two RBs with over 700 yards rushing, Williams (743 / 4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and Gordon (716 / 4.8 / 7 TDs), which gives Denver an edge in that department. The Broncos also own the edge defensively, allowing 17.5 PPG, 2nd-best in the entire NFL. Two fumbled punts by Cincinnati returner Darius Phillips led to 10 first-half points for the 49ers last Sunday. A taunting call against Bengals safety Vonn Bell extended the second of those Niners drives, which ended in a 14-yard TD pass from Garoppolo to Kittle that gave San Francisco a 17-6 halftime lead. However, Burrow showed how much he's grown this season by leading two late 4th-quarter drives, both ending with a TD pass to Chase. The Bengals took the lead in OT with a FG but lost on a San Francisco TD. As for Denver, after pregame tributes to WR Thomas, the Broncos, notorious slow starters, scored TDs on their first two drives. The first quarter ended with the Broncos holding a 14-0 lead, an 11-0 advantage in FDs and a yardage disparity of 135 to minus-1. The final was 38-10, as the Lions fell to 1-11-1 on the season. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner here would own the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, although with some many teams in the mix, other tiebreakers may decide things. However, as I noted at the top, the Bengals still have a real shot at winning the division. After two back-to-back home losses, getting a road game, where the Bengals are 4-2, is NOT a bad thing. In the end, I also like Burrow over Bridgeater in 'crunch time.' That said, I don't expect there to be 'crunch time,' as the Bengals win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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| 12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show |
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My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. The 9-5 Tennessee Titans entered Week 15 in a three-way tie atop the AFC standings with four games remaining. They are battling the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs for the conference's top seed and only postseason bye. However, the Chiefs got an early start to the week winning in LA over the Chargers on Thursday, moving to 10-4. The Pats play Saturday at Indy, so the Titans could take the field needing to win to keep pace with those teams. Are the Titans really rooting for AFC South rival Indy to beat the Colts? Heading into Week 15, the 8-6 Colts are still within striking distance of the Titans (two back with four to go). As for the Steelers, they are just 6-6-1 and in last place in the AFC North. However, the division is still "up for grabs," as the Ravens lead at 8-5, with the Bengals and Browns at 7-6. QB Ben Roethlisberger still believes the Pittsburgh Steelers have what it takes to be a playoff team. However, time is running out to prove it. |
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| 12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
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My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft and in his first two seasons, the Cards went 5-10-1 and 8-8. However, he and his team opened the current season 7-0 before losing to Green Bay in Week 8. More bad news followed, as Murray was sidelined with an ankle in Weeks 9-11, although the Cards were able to go 2-1. Week 12 brought a bye and Murray returned in Week 13 in a 33-22 win at Chicago (two TD passses / 2 rushing TDs). The 10-2 Cardinals can essentially put the NFC West out of reach with a victory, which would be their second over the 8-4 Rams this season. Each team has four games remaining after Monday. |
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| 12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 4:25 ET. The Buffalo Bills were 13-3 last season and played in the AFC championship game. Along with KC, they came into the season as one of the favorites to be in that AFC title game again, but the Bills are just 7-5 as they visit Raymond James Stadium Sunday afternoon to face the 9-3 Bucs, the defending Super Bowl champs. After losing at home 14-10 to the Pats last Monday, the 7-5 Bills trail the 9-4 Pats in the AFC East. New England is on its bye in Week 14, so a win moves the Bills to 8-5 and ONE game back, but a loss drops them to 7-6, TWO games back. That's a BIG difference with just four games remaining. Meanwhile, the Bucs can clinch the NFC South title with a victory over Buffalo and a loss or tie by both the New Orleans Saints (5-7) and Carolina Panthers (5-7). The Saints visit the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday, while the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7).
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| 12-12-21 | Cowboys -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show |
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My NFL 10* ONE & ONLY Game of the Year is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET. Jason Garrett was given MORE than enough time as the Cowboys' head coach but finally Jerry said "enough was enough" Mike McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl with Green Bay, was hired in 2020 and executions were high. It was a tough season with COVID for all teams but Dallas' season looked over when Dak Prescott was lost in Week 5 to season-ending injury. At 2-3, Dallas would lose FOUR in a row and six of seven. However, at 3-9, a three-game winning streak actually gave them a chance at the division title (at 6-9), entering Week 17. The Cowboys lost and finished at 6-10. The 'winner' of the NFC 'Least' last season was Washington, led by Ron Rivera (former Carolina head coach who led the Panthers to a 15-1 record in 2016 and into the Super Bowl, where the Panthers lost to the Broncos), despite only a 7-9 record. The Washington defense gelled at the end of 2020, allowing just 15.9 PPG in winning FIVE of its last seven. |
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| 12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
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My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion try by the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and with their 20-19 win, have turned the AFC North into a real 'horse race!' The Ravens stand at 8-4, while Cincy is at 7-5, after a crushing home loss to the Chargers. The Steelers are presently 6-5-1, plus the 6-6 Browns were idle last week. First-to-last is separated by just two games. Just as notable, Pittsburgh is just a half-game behind three 7-5 teams for one of three wild card berths. That makes this Thursday night visit to Minnesota, to say the least, VERY important.
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| 12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
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My 9* NFC West Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The Seattle Seahawks find themselves in an unfamiliar position entering December. In the 10 seasons since the Seattle Seahawks drafted QB Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft, the franchise has been a regular contender, making the playoffs in EIGHT of the nine seasons prior to 2021 (played in two Super Bowls, winning one). However, when the 3-8 Seahawks play host to the 6-5 49ers on Sunday, they are little more than an also-ran with little to play for over the season's final six weeks. Conversely, the 49ers have won THREE in a row (while averaging 31.6 PPG) and currently own the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.
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| 12-05-21 | Ravens -4 v. Steelers | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -112 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
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My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 4:25 ET. The 8-3 Baltimore Ravens lead the AFC North but have not been able to 'shake the 7-4 Bengals. The 6-6 Browns and 5-5-1 Steelers fill out the rest of the division. The Steelers looked like a contender at 5-3 but they welcome the hated-Ravens to Heinz Field on an 0-2-1 run. This is the first meeting between the two rivals in 2021, with the teams playing again at Baltimore in Week 18. The Ravens enter December with the best record in the AFC, but their recent performances have been anything but pretty. Baltimore heads into the weekend a half-game ahead of the Patriots and Titans (both 8-4) for the top spot in the conference and. The playoff structure is the same as last season, meaning only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round playoff bye, so the Ravens certainly cannot afford many slip-ups over their final six games. QB Lamar Jackson (64.2% for 2,612 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs) is NOT having a vintage season, evidenced by him throwing a career-high four interceptions Sunday night in a 16-10 win over the Cleveland Browns. He also threw for a season-low 165 yards and was sacked multiple times for the ninth time in 10 games. However, he does lead the team in rushing (707 yards on 5.7 YPC) and is the reason the Ravens are No. 2 in the NFL averaging 150.7 YPG on the ground. His top receivers are WR Brown (60 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews ( 60 catches / 5 TDs). The defense is no longer a dominating unit (ala the Ray Lewis years) but Baltimore does rank 9th in allowing 21.8 PPG. Big Ben is not the QB he once was but he can still be dangerous. He enters the game completing 64.6% for 2,522 yards with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 87.1 YPG (28th), although rookie RB Harris does have 708 yards with 5 TDs but averages only 3.6 YPC. He is also Pitt's second-leading receiver (52 catches / 2 TDs), behind WR Johnson (68 catches / 4 tDs). WR Claypool adds 37 catches (16.4 YPC / but just 1 TD) and TE Freiermuth adds 40 catches and a team-high 6 TDs.The offense averages only 20.4 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 24.3 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Pittsburgh is also just 29th in takeaways with only NINE. The Ravens have averaged only 14 points over the last three games but have won two of them, while Pittsburgh's last three games have seen them tie Detroit 16-16 (Lions are 0-10-1 on the season), while allowing 41 points in back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Bengals. Jackson is a highly accomplished QB and this Pittsburgh defense may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Baltimore offense to shake its doldrums! The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against AFC North opponents, while the Steelers are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 following a SU loss. I'm on the road favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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| 12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET. Washington was able to capture the NFC 'Least' last season with a 7-9 record but with Dallas jumping out to a 6-1 start and Washington opening 2-6, the Cowboys seemed like a 'lock' to win the NFC East in 2021. However, Dallas has lost THREE of four to fall back to 7-4, while Washington has won THREE in a row to reach 5-6. Washington looks to make it FOUR straight wins this week in Las Vegas against the Raiders, who are one of three AFC West teams that are currently 6-5. Kansas City, which has won FIVE straight division titles, leads the AFC West at 7-4, so clearly, that division is far from settled. Speaking of Dallas, the Raiders snapped a three-game skid by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 36-33 in overtime on Thanksgiving. All that said, this marks the ONLY home game for the Raiders in a 4-week span and don't forget, it's an extremely bad situational spot for Washington, traveling cross-country on a short week. With FIVE consecutive NFC games coming up to end the regular season, this seems like a perfect "let-down" spot for Washington. This really is a "must win'' for the Raiders as the 6-5 Chargers are on the road vs a very good Cincy team, plus 6-5 Denver is at 7-4 KC. The Raiders really need to get to 7-5 with a "W" in this one. A win basically means a cover at this pointspread but my bet says the Raiders win handily. Good luck...Larry |
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| 12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
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My 9* 'Battle of the QBs" is on the lA Chargers at 1:00 ET. The 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals are positioned to make some noise in December, as except for the 8-3 Baltimore Ravens, every AFC team has at least four losses, with 12 at .500 or better. One of those 12 teams at .500 or better is the 6-5 LA Chargers, who remain in the playoff mix despite losing FOUR of their last six games. Baltimore leads the AFC North at 8-3, Cincy checks in at 7-4, the Browns at 6-5 and the Steelers at 5-5-1. Over in the AFC West, KC is 7-5, while the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders are all 6-5.
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| 11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
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My NFC 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. The Rams lost in Green Bay to the Packers 32-18 in last year's Divisional Round but much has changed as the Rams venture back to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon for this Week 12 contest. I'll get to those changes in a bit but first, let me set the stage. The Rams opened the season 7-1 through Week 8 but were then upset by the Tiatns at home, who were playing without Henry. They then lost 31-10 at San Francisco in Week 10. A Week 11 bye likely came at a good time. The Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints (game was played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida) but rebounded to win their next SIX games, before the Rodgers 'vaccination fiasco!' Rodgers sat out the 13-7 loss at KC but returned in a 17-0 win over Seattle, before the Packers lost 34-31 at Minnesota last Sunday. The Packers are 8-3 and battling the 9-2 Cardinals for the NFL's No. 1 seed.
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| 11-28-21 | Steelers v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals will welcome the 5-4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. The 7-3 Ravens lead the tightly-contested AFC North, with the Bengals, Steelers and 6-5 Browns in hot pursuit. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a definitive win at Las Vegas (32-13) last week, while Pittsburgh saw a five-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday night in a 41-37 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers. |
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| 11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
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My 9* Sitautional Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. The defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs are coming off a 30-10 home MNF win over the Giants and will visit Indianapolis on Sunday with a record 7-3 record. No other team in the NFC South owns a winning record, so the Bucs mission the rest of the way is to try to earn the NFC's No. 1 seed (only team to get a first round bye). Currently, the Bucs trail the 9-2 Cards and 8-3 Packers. The Colts made the playoffs last season at 10-6 but opened the current season 0-3. They were 1-4 through Week 5 but have won FIVE of their last six and at 6-5, are close to being back inside the AFC playoff 'cut line!' The ageless Tom Brady threw for 307 yards and a pair of TDs in the Buccaneers' 30-10 rout of the New York Giants on Monday night. He's completing 67.1% for 3,177 yards with 29 TDs and just 8 INTs. Not bad for someone fastly approaching Medicare. Fournette has taken over the featured RB position from Jones and leads the team with 521 yards on 4.3 YPC and 4 TDs. The Bucs are averaging only 91.2 YPG (26th) keeping the constant pressure on Brady. He's got a talented receiving corps, led by WRs Godwin (63 / 5 TDs) and Evans (47 / 10 TDs). Brown (29 / 4 TDs in five games) is still out but TE Gronk (22 / 4 TDs in five games) returned LW with six catches for 71 yards on MNF. The offense averages 30.8 PPG (1st) on 406.0 YPG (2nd). A comment on the defense, shortly. Indy RB Taylor came on late in his rookie season and after a slow start to the 2021 season, he now leads the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC with 13 TDs. He adds 32 catches (T-2nd on the team) with another 2 TDs. QB Carson Wentz was reunited with Frank Reich (now Indy's head coach) and his career has been revived. He's completing 63.0% for 2,484 yards with 17 TDs and 3 INTs. WR Pittman leads with 57 catches (13.2 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Cox may have just 15 catches but he's caught 4 TDs. The offense is averaging 28.1 PPG (5th) and the defense is allowing 22.3 PPG (11th). Taylor destroyed the Buffalo Bills last week to the tune of 185 yards and four scores while adding a fifth touchdown on a pass reception. The 41-15 blowout was old-school football at its best. The Colts now face a Tampa Bay team that is just 2-3 on the road, allowing 33.0 PPG in its three losses (at the Rams, Saints and the Washington FB team), while scoring just 23.3 PPG. Note: Tampa Bay is 5-0 at home, averaging 38.4 PPG. Jonathan Taylor became the NFL's first 1,000-yard rusher this season and this Sunday, he can break the league record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage and at least one TD. He's tied with Lydell Mitchell and LaDainian Tomlinson (eight). Not bad company. The Tampa Bay defense is still somewhat banged up and looks very vulnerable against an Indy offense "hitting on all cylinders." The Colts are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four in an underdog role (3-1 SU), while Tampa is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite in 2021. Good luck...Larry |
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| 11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
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My 10* Turkey Shoot is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are both dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thanksgiving night in New Orleans plus both are trying to "regain their footing." The Bills were in the AFC championship game last season (13-3 regular season) but after a surprising upset at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, won their next FOUR games, averaging 39.0 per contest. However, a 34-31 loss to Titans began a slide in which Buffalo has lost THREE of five and at 6-4, find themselves a half-game back of the 7-4 Patriots in the AFC East. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints then lost back-to-back games by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). Last Sunday, the Saints lost 40-29 at Philly, for their THIRD straight loss. Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his place among the elite QBs last season and through the Bill's first seven games, had a 17-3 TD to INT ratio. However, over the last three games (two losses), he has four TDs and five INTs. He's still having a good season (65.7% / 2,811 yards / 21-8 ratio with 340 rushing yards and 3 TDs) but it's time for him to step up. The running game is nothing special (118.8 YPG ranks 12th) but Allen has a strong cast of receivers. Diggs leads the way 60 / 6 TDs0 and possession receiver Beasley has 57 catches but a YPC average of only 8.8. Samuels has 33 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and E Knox (28 / 5 TDs) complete the major contributors. However, Beasley's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The defense has remained solid throughout the ups and downs, allowing 17.6 PPG (2) and just 283.7 YPG (1st). Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he had two straight interception-free games in his first two games as the Saints' starter, the Saints lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. He threw three TDs at Philly (team's third straight loss) but had two INTs and a modest 214 passing yards. The Saints have played the last two weeks without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) remains questionable for this game and so is his backup Ingram, who ran for 88 yards at Philly (was limited in practice this week). The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 203.4 yards per game through the air (26th). It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. The Saints have won the last five meetings with the Bills, although the last meeting came back in 2017. However, New Orleans is 3-0 all-time on Thanksgiving and is playing on the holiday for the THIRD time in four seasons. Sure, Buffalo is the better team but so were the defending champion Bucs when they lost 36-27 back in Week 8. BTW...Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do to win in the NFL was to "pick the better team?" The Saints have lost three games in a row for the first time since 2016 but take notice of this trend. The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 Week 1 shocker over the Packers and have been trading ATS wins and losses every single week. My bet says this trend (or pattern, or whatever you want to refer to it as) continues Thanksgiving night with the home dog 'barking' VERY loudly. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 128 h 40 m | Show |
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My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:20 ET. The 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to LA's SoFi Stadium for an important game with the 5-4 LA Chargers. Pittsburgh trails 6-3 Baltimore in the AFC North, with 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland still 'hanging around' As for the Chargers, they are tied with the Raider, a half-game back of the first-place Chiefs (6-4) in the AFC West, while the Broncos lurk at 5-5. Clearly, this is a game BOTH teams desperately want (and NEED) to win! The Steelers opened 1-3 but had won FOUR in a row, before playing to a tie last Sunday, against winless Detroit. Big Ben was supposedly washed up but he had completed 65.6% for 1,986 yards with 10 TDs and just 4 INTs through eight games, before missing last week because of COVID. Mason Rudolph got the start and was 30 of 50 for 242 yards with one TD and one INT (update to come). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 646 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 4TDs) plus has added 44 catches (2nd-most on the team), with 2 TDs. WR Johnson lead witch 52 catches (3 TDs) and TE Freiermuth has 32 catches and a team-high 4 TDs. With Smith-Schuster on IR, the Steelers are hoping WR Claypool (29 catches) will be able to play (he is questionable). The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 PPG (26th) but as always are playing good defense, allowing 20.6 PPG (8th). QB Justin Herbert had a good rookie season and opened the current season like gangbusters. His YTD numbers still look impressive (65.4% for 2,545 yards with 19 TDs and 7 iNTs) but he's really fallen off, as the Chargers are 1-3 after a 4-1 start. In those three losses, he completed just 55.6% for an average of 204.3 YPG with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. RB Ekeler is a terric all-purpose player, rushing for 523 yards (4.7 YPC with 5 TDs), while catching 39 passes for 4 TDs. WRs Allen (65 / 2 TDs) and Wiliams (41 / 6 TDs) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (28 / 2 TDs) is solid. Here's the deal. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin didn't rule out the possibility that Roethlisberger could play Sunday, but the game plan this week will revolve around backup Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in its last five games (4-0-1) but a closer look reveals the Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, needing referee-aided assistance to nip the Bears two weeks ago at home on MNF and this past Sunday, couldn’t even beat the winless Lions playing to a comical 16-16 tie. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 PPG in their last four home contests. The Chargers go on the road for the next two games, so a "W" here is almost a 'MUST!' I got down early on LA (-3.5) but the line jumped with the news that Big Ben may not play. He may and if so, the line will (should) come back down. Either way, my play is on the Chargers. Good luck...Larry |
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| 11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:25 ET. The Cowboys were just 6-10 last season (5-11 ATS) but enter this Week 11 matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs at 7-2 and an 8-1 ATS mark. The Chiefs have struggled on and off in 2021 but THREE straight wins have them at 6-4 and atop the AFC West, a division they've won in each of the last five seasons. However, KC's ATS woes have continued, as they are just 3-7, after ending the 2020's regular season on a 1-7 ATS run.
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| 11-21-21 | Ravens -4.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 16 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT) but then won FIVE of six. However, they've lost TWO of their last three, including 22-10 at Miami on a Thursday night game in Week 10. Baltimore is currently 6-3 but the AFC North also features 5-3-1 Pittsburgh, 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland. The Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost FOUR in a row. Chicago 'lives' in the NFC North, a division that's dominated by the 8-2 Packers and embarrassed by the 0-8-1 Lions.
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| 11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
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My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints have lost two games in a row by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). The 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles welcome the Saints to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday coming off perhaps their best game of the season, a 30-13 victory at Denver last Sunday.
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| 11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 48 m | Show |
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My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET. QB Matt Ryan no longer has much of a receiving corps plus a running game that's worse than New England's (67.7 YPG ranks 29th) but per usual, he's on pace for another 4,000 yard season (he's topped 4,000 yards the last 10 seasons). A bright spot for Atlanta's passing game is Florida rookie TE Pitts, who leads the team with 40 catches. There are NO bright spots on a defense allowing 29.2 PPG (31st). |
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| 11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 16 m | Show |
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My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. Pick your poison. The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 on the road this season, while the San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 at home. However, San Francisco has beaten the Rams FOUR consecutive times (more on these trends at the end). The 3-5 49ers are in desperate need of a win when they welcome the 7-2 the Rams to Levi's Stadium on Monday night at Santa Clara, Ca. As for the Rams, they are battling the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West lead and got some huge help Sunday when the Murray-less Cards were routed 34-10 by the Panthers, dropping them to 8-2. The Rams are coming off a 28-16 home loss to the Tennessee Titans and one of LA's two TDs came with 24 seconds left to make the outcome look closer than it was. QB Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the season (one TD / 2 INTs and a QB rating of 71.0) and accepted blame for the setback. Head coach Sean McVay is looking for a bounce-back performance. "We have to play cleaner football," McVay said. "I want to see what we learn from our response. The last time we had a setback, I liked how we responded." Expect Stafford to bounce back. In his previous three games, he had thrown for 10 TDs and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 128.7, 117.3 and 127.3! He's completing 68.2% on the season for 2,771 yards with 23 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 111.0 / his career mark is 91.0). LA's running game doesn't get help much but even though vet WR Woods (45 / 12.4 / 4 TDs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in practice this week, Stafford still has plenty of 'weapons.' Fellow WR Kupp leads the NFL with 74 catches and has 10 TDs (he's caught five-plus passes in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL). WR Jeferson (27 / 16.0 / 3 TDs) is MORE than capable of stepping up and who knows, maybe OBJ will like the 'lights' of Hollywood. TE Higbee (35 catches / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper. The LA defense hasn't quite dominated but it's still one of the most-feared in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo (65.3% / 1,754 yards / 8 TDs and 5 INTs) was considered the team's 'savior' when he led the 49ers to the Super bowl at the end of the 2019 season but he seems to be regularly on the 'hot seat' these days. That said, he has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, with QB ratings of over 100.0 in both. Like the Rams, the 49ers don't have much of a running game and last week ran for just 39 yards, the lowest total in the Kyle Shanahan era. WR Samuel has 49 catches (18.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and when healthy, TE Kittle (25 catches / 13.1 YPC / 1 TD) is among the very best in the league. He did return last week (six catches for 101 yards with his first tD catch of the year) but let's wait and see. Yes, the 49ers have won FOUR straight against the Rams but how can one ignore that since the start of the 2020 season, San Francisco is just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in home games? Yes, the lone "W" came against the Rams last October but the Rams are the MUCH better team and are coming off a humiliating home loss. A bounce back seems highly likely and now, with Arizona's loss, the Rams have a chance to join the Cards atop the NFC West. Stafford has found a 'home' with the Rams and enters as the only QB to throw for 250-plus yards in all nine games. Taking him over Jimmy G is a 'no-brainer' plus the Rams own the better defense. Lay the small points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show |
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My 10* NFL Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. |
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| 11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ws FB team at 1:00 ET. |
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| 11-14-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cle Browns at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns are FINALLY rid of former All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and that HAS to be good news. Baker Mayfield and the 5-4 Browns are in Foxborough, Ma to take on Mac Jones and the 5-4 New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Mayfield threw for 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14-of-21 passing, and Nick Chubb rushed for 137 yards and two scores to help the Browns rout the rival Cincinnati Bengals 41-16 last Sunday, in what was Cleveland's best overall game this season. The Patriots coasted to a 24-6 win at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, giving them their first three-game winning streak since the 2019 season and after a 1-3 start, New England has won four of five to also come in at 5-4. Cleveland had dropped three of its previous four games before Sunday's rout of Cincinnati. Without Beckham, the Browns had a balanced offensive attack with Mayfield completing passes to eight different receivers. Mayfield is not having a great season (66.7% for 1,917 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs), as the Cleveland offense counts on the NFL's best rushing offense (160.2 YPG, 5.3 YPC and 16 rushing TDs all rank No. 1 among all NFL teams). However, Nick Chubb (3rd in the NFL with 721 rushing yards) was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list early in the week and ruled out on Friday. D'Ernest Johnson is the team's lone healthy RB but the good news is that Johnson ran for a career-best 146 yards and a TD in his first start against Denver back on Oct 21. "We are extremely confident in D'Ernest. That has not been a question yet," Mayfield said. The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (309.7 YPG) and is arguably coming off its best effort. Cincy's Joe Burrow came into last Sunday's game as the only QB with multiple TD passes in every game but was held without a TD pass and was intercepted twice. His QB rating on the season is 102.6 but against Cleveland it was 69.0! Alabama rookie Mac Jones has completed 68.0% for 2,135 and completed at least 70% of his passes in FIVE of his first nine games, the only rookie QB to do so. However, he has a modest 10-7 TD/INT ratio and in the win over Carolina, he threw for just 139 yards on 12-of-18 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Over the last two weeks, Jones has completed just 57 percent of his passes while averaging 178 yards passing. The No. 15 overall pick in this year's draft completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts while averaging 254.1 yards over his first seven starts. More bad news is that the Patriots' leading rusher (only rusher?) Damien Harris began the week in the concussion protocol. Harris has run for 547 yards and 7 TDs for a team that averages just 106.8 YPG on the ground (19th) and has been ruled OUT for Sunday's game. Belichick-coached teams always play good defense and the 2021 Pats are allowing just 18.9 PPG (4th) on 340.3 YPG (9th). I can't help but think that the Pats are a little overrated and that Browns just may be a little underappreciated. Breaking the game down finds this is a tough Browns defense that's good at stopping the run (84.8 YPG ranks 3rd) and New England can't be expected to run well without Harris. That's going to put even more pressure on Jones, who is off back-to-back mediocre efforts (he can call Joe Burrow and ask about the Cleveland D!). The Browns rank first in the league in YPC, in average time per drive and rank in the top-three in plays per drive. Kevin Stefanski needs to out-coach Bill Belichick today, which is never an easy thing to do, but the talent on this Cleveland defense will prove to be the difference in the end in my opinion. Good luck...Larry |
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| 11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
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My 10* AFC Game of the Week is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT), while the Dolphins opened with a 17-16 win at New England, despite being outplayed in every facet of the game. The teams have gone in opposite directions ever since, as Baltimore's won SIX of seven, while the Dolphins had lost SEVEN in a row before beating the hapless Texans 17-9 last Sunday (Houston won in Week 1 and has lost EIGHT in a row since).
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| 11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
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My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi bears at 8:15 ET. Chicago Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost THREE in a row. Some good news is head coach Matt Nagy is set to return to the sidelines Monday night following a one-game absence in the NFL's COVID-19 protocol and the BETTER news is the likely return of RB David Montgomery, who was back at practice this week after mending from a knee injury he sustained in Week 4. The Steelers opened 1-3 but have now won THREE in a row, outscoring opponents 65-49 during their three-game winning streak.
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| 11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 25 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:05 ET. The LA Chargers opened 4-1 but are hoping to hit the reset button after consecutive losses 38-6 at Baltimore and 27-24 at home vs New England. The Chargers visit the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, as the 3-5 Eagles return home for the first time since a 28-22 defeat against Tampa Bay on Oct 14. Since then, they lost 33-22 on the road to the Las Vegas Raiders, then posted a 44-6 victory at the 0-8 Detroit Lions last week. The 4-3 Chargers are a half-game back of the Raiders in the AFC West (Den and KC are 4-4), while the 3-5 Eagles trail the first-place Cowboys, who are 6-1 (7-0 ATS!). The NFC East was referred to as the NFC 'Least' in 2020, as Washington took the division with a 7-9 record, but the Cowboys are having 'none of that' so far in 2021.
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| 11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 4 m | Show |
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My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are both 4-4 and square off in this AFC/NFC matchup in Charlotte. The Pats are in Year 2 of the post-Brady era and in Year 1 of what the team hopes will be the Mac Jones era. New England opened 1-3 but has gone 3-1 its last four games, averaging a healthy 33.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina jumped out to a surprising 3-0 start but followed with FOUR straight losses, before getting back to .500 with a 19-13 win last Sunday in Atlanta. |
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| 10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 101 h 47 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET. The hiring of Mike McCarthy prior to the 2020 season was viewed as a "big deal" for Dallas. "America's Team" won THREE Super Bowl titles in a four-year span from 1992 through 1995 but has had little to show over the next 2 1/2-decades. QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending-injury in the team's fifth game in 2020 and even though the NFC East winner (Washington) was just 7-9, the Cowboys fell short with a 6-10 record. Entering this season, Dallas had made just 10 playoff appearances in the last 25 seasons, with zero appearances in the NFC championship game, no less a Super Bowl appearance or win. |
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| 10-31-21 | Patriots +5.5 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NE Patriots at 4:05 ET. The Pats lost Tom Brady to Tampa Bay for the 2020 season and while New England fell to 7-9, everyone knows that Brady led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win (his seventh). New England had hoped Cam Newton could regain his MVP form but that was NOT the case and in the 2021 draft took Alabama QB Mac Jones (more on him in a bit). The Pats outplayed but lost to the Dolphins in Week 1 and after a win over the Jets, got thumped at home 28-13 by the Saints. The Pats travel to LA for a game with Chargers, coming off their best effort of the season, albeit against the haliess Jets. |
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| 10-31-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Browns | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
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My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened with a 23-16 upset at Buffalo in Week 1 but then lost THREE in a row, However, the Steelers have rebounded to win two in a row to get back to 3-3. The Browns led KC almost the entire game in Week 1 but lost a close one. The Browns have since won four of six. The AFC South is a talented division in 2021, as the Bengals and Ravens are each 5-2. Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 252.5 YPG so far and his career average in 239 games is 258.3 YPG. He has just seven TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 88.0 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 388 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) and has added 34 catches, which is tied for 1st on the team, In Pittsburgh's two wins, he's run for 203 yards and a TD plus caught eight passes and another TD. The Steelers answered a sluggish start to the season by winning their two games before heading into the bye week. The Pittsburgh players showed a little 'pep in their step' in Wednesday's practice but WR Chase Claypool had a hunch as to why. "It might be because of the bye week that we have more energy and more fun, or it's because we're playing the Browns," Claypool said. "Either way, we're having more fun out there." Claypool (22 catches / 16.3 YPC / 3 TDs) is expected back after missing Pittsburgh's last game and will join fellow WR Johnson (34 catches / 3 TDs). This is NOT a great Pittsburgh D but it's solid, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 35.2 YPG (13th). Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. Mayfield rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), throwing just six TDs with three INTs. The Cleveland running game is No. 1 in the NFL at 170.4 YPG. Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC with four TDs) missed the team's last two games but is back here. However, Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs) missed last week as well and remains out. However, D'Ernest Johnson erupted for 146 yards with a TD in his first career start a week ago Thursday and is ready to support Chubb. Cleveland's receiving corps is far from healthy, as Hunt actually leads the team with 20 catches. TE Njoku has 17 catches, averaging a healthy 16.7 YPC but has just one TD catch. The Cleveland defense is allowing only 295.6 YPG (2nd) but allows more points than one would expect (23.6 PPG ranks 18th). Mayfield returns here after his injured left (non-throwing) shoulder and torn labrum kept him out of Cleveland's 17-14 victory over the Denver Broncos back on Oct 21. Chubb, who has missed Cleveland's last two games, is also back. Many are down on Pittsburgh but I'm a fan of Mike Tomlin, who has consistently gotten the most out of the hands he's been dealt. Heading into last year's playoff game, the Steelers had dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Can you say "pay back?" Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
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My 9* NFC Game of the Week is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET. The defending champions Bucs are 6-1 (just 3-4 ATS) but many may feel that Tampa Bay is still the NFL's best team. However, the Thursday Night game between the 6-1 Packers (6-1 ATS) and 7-0 Cards (6-1 ATS) features a matchup of teams that are also staking a claim as being the NFL's best team (I can hear Dallas bettors crying, we are 6-0 ATS!). The Packers were steamrolled 38-3 by the Saints in Week 1 but have won SIX in a row both SU and ATS. However, Green Bay got some VERY bad news at the beginning of the week that WR Davante Adams.was placed on the COVID-19 list. As for the Cardinals, they are 7-0 for the first time since 1974 when they resided in St Louis and were guided by coaching legend Don Coryell.
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| 10-25-21 | Saints -4 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
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My 9* MNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET. The Drew Brees era came to a close last season in New Orleans and the Saints are second-to-last in the NFL with 169.4 YPG through the air, well off the standard set by Brees and Co. The Saints are currently 3-2 and will likely be playing for a wild card berth as their 'ticket' into the postseason (The Tampa Bay Bradys are 6-1 to lead the NFC South). That said, compared to Seattle, New Orleans is 'cruising' in 2021. The 2-4 Seahawks are faltering at a level rarely seen over the past decade, as Seattle entered the current season having made the postseason in NINE of Pete Carroll's 11 seasons with Seattle, including EIGHT of nine times since Russell Wilson became the team's starting QB in his rookie season. QB Jameis Winston has just 892 passing yards but has 12 TD passes, and only three INTs (in 116 attempts) for a QB rating of 108.1 (his career QB rating is 86.1!). RB Kamara (368 yards on 3.9 YPC / just one TD) is also the team's leading receiver with 15 catches. However, WRs Harris (12 catches ) and Gallaway (13 catches) have modest reception totals, they've averaged 19.7 and 17.1 YPC, respectively. Defensively, the Saints are allowing just 18.2 PPG (4th-best). Seattle's woes have a lot to do with the loss of QB Russell Wilson (72.0% with 10 TDs and one INT plus a QB rating of 125.3) to a finger injury and starting RB Chris Carson (232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs with neck troubles that have forced him to miss the last two games. Geno Smith started last week at QB and completed 23 of 32 for 209 yards with one TD and zero INTs but he's NO Wilson! You think? Smith's fumble while being sacked in overtime led to Pittsburgh's winning score. Collins was the featured back and ran for 101 yards (5.1 YPC) and a TD. WRs Metcalf (31 catches / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Lockett (27 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) are excellent but that's when Wilson is the one throwing to them. Getting back to Collins, he came out of last Sunday's game 'beat up!' However, Seattle's offense is not Carroll's biggest concern. It's a defense that's allowing 433.2 YPG, dead-last in the NFL (32nd). After giving up more than 450 total yards in four straight games (that tied an NFL record), the Seahawks were better last week holding the Steelers to 345 yards. However, Seattle still hasn't held an opponent under 100 yards rushing (can you say a breakout game by Kamara?) and continues to get very little out of its pass rush (had zero sacks against Pittsburgh in the OT loss). The Saints are coming off their bye week and more than a few players will be back from injuries. New Orleans has been VERY kind to its backs on the road, going 36-15 ATS in its last 51 as the visiting side. The Saints will have no mercy here on the struggling home team in this one. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
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My 10* SNF Magic Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET. Week 7's SNF features two teams badly in need of a win. Indianapolis is 2-4 but plays in the weak AFC South. Tennessee leads at 4-2 but has to host the Chiefs on Sunday, off its MNF thriller over the Bills. In contrast, San Francisco is 2-3 and is stuck in the NFC West, which features the NFL's only unbeaten team (Arizona at 6-0) and the LA Rams, who are 5-1. That said, the team that loses here will see its playoff chances headed for 'life support,' even though the season has yet to reach its midpoint. The Colts have been consistently inconsistent this season but they're off a big 31-3 win over lowly Houston at home. The 49ers are hoping to bounce back after they lost 17-10 at Arizona in their latest matchup. That came two weeks ago, so they're now fully rested after their bye week, which really came at an opportune time early in the season. Carson Wentz, the former Philadelphia Eagles QB was acquired in the offseason that reunited him with Frank Reich, who was Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for Wentz's first two NFL seasons (2016-17). Wentz looked like he was headed to stardom when he threw a career-high 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2017 but his production went down after Reich departed to become the Colts' head coach. Wentz had just 16 TD passes and a career-worst 15 interceptions in 2020, losing his starting job to Jalen Hurts. However, reunited with Reich has worked out well, with Wentz completing 64.2% for 1,545 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (102.4 QB rating. In fact, Wentz is looking to throw multiple TD passes for the FOURTH straight game Sunday night. RB Taylor started poorly but has averaged 99.3 YPG over his last three, after rushing for 145 yards with two TDs vs Houston. WR Pittman leads with 31 catches but the bad news is that TY Hilton, who returned from a neck injury with four catches for 80 yards in his 2021 debut, has been ruled out. The Indy defense is solid, allowing 21.8 PPG (11th). San Francisco was on the verge of a QB controversy but Trey Lance, who started against Arizona, sprained his left knee in that game and was ruled out Friday. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting QB, as he returns from a calf injury that caused him to miss the Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "During the bye week, we made great strides," Garoppolo said Wednesday. "It will get better every day. Right now, it feels great." Jimmy G has completed 66.1% for 925 yards with five TD sand two INTs. Is he San Francisco's QB of the future? Not sure! The team's running game has been devastated by injuries but has still managed to average 122.0 YPG (12th). It won't help Jimmy G that George Kittle, the best TE outside of Kelce, remains out but WR WR Deebo Samuel had 71 yards from scrimmage and his fourth career TD run in Week 5 loss to Arizona, plus has at least five catches in four of five games this season (31 catches / 17.7 YPC / 3 TDs). The Nick Bosa-led defense (Bosa has five sacks, the most through five games for the franchise since Bryant Young had six in 2005) is allowing a modest 329.8 YPG (6th) but 23.8 YPG (16th)? Here's two contrasting trends. The 49ers are a horrific 0-9 their last nine as a home favorite (aren't they due?) but 11-5 ATS in non-conference games. Sometimes, when a team is rolling and on a win streak, a "bye week" can throw a proverbial "monkey wrench" into their well-oiled chemistry, but in this case, the bye came at a great time for a San Francisco team that opened 2-0 but has now lost THREE straight. "We could easily be sitting at 5-0 right now," 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. "Obviously, we're not. We're 2-3 but we go back and revisit every loss, you can find some good in that. There were some things where we could have won some games but we didn't take advantage of the situations." He may be exaggerating a little but the 49ers are NOT a sub-.500 team. Lay the short price as San Francisco moves to 3-3. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 114 h 35 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's Week 7 and Sunday's game between the 4-2 Bengals and 5-1 Ravens at Baltimore means a win by Cincy ties the two teams atop the AFC Central (with Cincy owning the tiebreaker) but a win by Baltimore moves the Ravens two games ahead of the Bengals. The Bengals have looked good so far but they will have to overcome recent history that reveals that since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB midway through 2018, the Ravens are 5-0 against the Bengals. That said, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is taking nothing for granted. "The (Bengals') whole team is one of the best teams in the National Football League right now," Harbaugh told reporters. "There's no question about it -- just watch them play. ... We've got our hands full." |
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| 10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +4.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 7, find themselves 3-3 and tied for last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Good news is that the Chargers and Raiders are just 4-2 and the 2021 season features 17 games. The Titans opened the season losing 38-10 at home to the Cardinals and the loss was a bit of a shocker. SIX weeks later, Arizona is the NFL's lone unbeaten at 6-0 (5-1 ATS). Tennessee has won four of five since, losing only 27-24 in OT at the Jets (now that REMAINS a head-scratcher!). KC is off 31-13 win at Washington, while Tennessee is off an impressive 34-31 home win Monday night over the Bills. |
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| 10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
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My 9* Losers Day Out play is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Atlanta joined the NFL in 1966, the same year Miami entered the AFL. The Falcons have been to just ONE Super Bowl (2016) and blew a 28-3 lead. The Dolphins won back-to-back Super Bowls ('72 & '73) and have NOT won one since. 2-4 Atlanta is at 1-5 Miami on Sunday in what I'm dubbing a "Losers Day Out" play. The Falcons are 2-3 but note that the wins have come over the Giants and Jets, who are a combined 2-9. Miami won at New England in Week 1 but has since lost FIVE in a row (1-4) The Falcons have played the Dolphins just three times in Matt Ryan's career (Atlanta is 1-2) but note that in each meeting, Miami's had a different QB lead them. That trend will continue Sunday, as Tua Tagovailoa has never faced Atlanta. Previous Miami QBs that Ryan has gone up against are Chad Pennington (2009), Ryan Tannehill (2013) and Jay Cutler (2017).
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| 10-21-21 | Broncos +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
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My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET. The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals! |
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| 10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
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My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET. Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020. Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season). The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs). Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd). On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets. QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers -5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
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My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET. Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?). Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG. The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th. I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
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My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET. Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North. |
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| 10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!' After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold. The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return. No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos. While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover! Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
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My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke. |
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| 10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show |
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My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina. |
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| 10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 129 h 46 m | Show |
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My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!
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| 10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET, The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions 24-14 at home in Week 4, evening their record at 2-2. Rookie Justin Fields got the start at QB for the injured Dalton and he looked better than his previous game (11 of 17 for 209 yards with no TDs and one INT) but most feel he's NOT ready for primetime. Chicago's running game produced 188 yards and accounted for all three TDs. The Bears visit Las Vegas on Sunday to take on the Raiders, who lost for the first time in Week 4's MNF contest 28-14 to the Chargers. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. That marked the Raiders 1st 3-0 start since 2002. However, the Raiders fell behind the Chargers 21-0 last Monday and lost 28-14. As noted above, no one is quite sure about Fields' viability as a starting QB. RB Montgomery ran for 106 yards and two TDs in the win over the Lions and has 309 yards on the season (4.5 YPC / 3 TDs). Robinson caught 102 passes last season and 98 in 2019 but is off to a slower start in 2021 with 13 catches. Mooney caught 61 passes as a rookie and has 17 this year. A quality QB would help. The Chicago defense is solid, allowing 22.8 PPG (10th) on 350.0 YPG (12th). Carr was outplayed by Herbert on MNF but is completing 64.1% for 1,399 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. The problem for the Las Vegas offense is that RB Jacobs has not been healthy. He returned Monday night and had just 40 yards on 13 carries. He's coming off seasons of 1,065 and 1,150 yards. The Raiders are averaging just 80.5 PPG (27th), which is about 40 yards less per game than the last two seasons. TE Waller (24 catches) is "big time" plus Carr has three WRs that make contributions. Renfro leads with 22 catches, Ruggs has 14 while averaging 21.2 YPC and Edwards has only 11 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. The Las Vegas defense is no better than mediocre, allowing 25.0 PPG on 36.1 YPG (both ranks 19th). Excellent bounce-back spot for Las Vegas, who sits in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Chargers. Meanwhile, it's hard to ignore that Chicago is 0-2 on the road, having scored just 20 points, while allowing 60 points. Lay it with the Ray-Dahs. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-10-21 | Saints -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT. The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th). The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th). The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
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My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss. Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th). Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!' Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-07-21 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
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My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9. Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams! Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
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My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory. QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games. QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021. The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 22 m | Show |
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My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'
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| 10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 28 m | Show |
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My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET. The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.
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| 10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
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My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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| 10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -114 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd). The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!). Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! Good luck...Larry |
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| 10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14). The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th). Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
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My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.
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| 09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
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My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8). The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly. San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game. Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday. The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite. San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!' Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-26-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET. The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.
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| 09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Bills | 21-43 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
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My 8* Super 26 Rematch is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. This is not exactly a rematch of Super Bowl 26, when Washington bested Buffalo 37-24. Washington has opened with back-to-back home games, losing 20-16 to the LA Chargers and then beating the Giants 30-29 in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Most will remember that Washington got a "second chance" to kick the game-winning FG as time expired, when the Giants went offside on the first try (a miss). The second time was a charm! Washington is on the road Sunday to face the Bills, who are off a 13-3 season in 2020 in which they made it all the way to the AFC championship game where they lost to the Chiefs. Buffalo led Pittsburgh 10-0 into the 4th quarter in Week 1 but allowed 17 points, losing 27-16 to the Steelers. However, Buffalo handed the Dolphins a 35-0 beatdown in Miami in Week 2. QB Taylor Heinicke had to come in early in Week 1's game, replacing an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he just wasn't able to get the job done. However, he completed 34 of 46 for 336 yards (two TDs / one INT) in the win over the Giants. RB Antonio Gibson has run for 159 yards on 4.8 YPC. Washington's defense led the NFL in allowing 18.5 PPG and also allowed the fewest YPG (281.9) last season. Expectations ran high for the team's D in 2021 (led by an imposing front-four) but so far, the unit has underachieved. Josh Allen had a career season in 2020, completing 69.2% for 4,544 yards with 37 TDs with just 10 INTs (107.2 rating). However, while he threw 51 passes in Week 1, he led the Bills to just 16 points. In Buffalo's 35-0 domination at Miami in Week 2, he was more of a bystander (17 of 33 for 179 yards with two TDs and one INT), as Buffalo's D held the Dolphins to 216 total yards, 13 FDs and ZERO points. Buffalo welcomes Washington to town allowing 11.5 PPG on 234.0 YPG (both figures rank 2nd in 2021). My feeling here is that Washington comes in under the radar. Ron Rivera's defense bent, but didn't break vs the Giants, who threw everything they had at their NFC East rivals. I'm a big Josh Allen fan but Old Dominion's Taylor Heinicke just may be MUCH better than anyone ever anticipated. Don't give up on Washington's D just yet plus note that Washington is on a 10-5-1 run as a road dog. Grab the TD or more. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -118 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
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My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.
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| 09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
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My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest. "Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W." Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51? The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 127 h 39 m | Show |
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My 9* SNF Magic 'Best Bet' is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. Kansas City hosted the Browns in Week 1 (a rematch of a postseason matchup last year) and trailed from the opening kick-off until Mahomes led two fourth-quarter TD drives to give KC a 33-29 non-covering win. The Ravens opened Monday night in Las Vegas, where they lost a 33-27 OT thriller to the Raiders. Mahomes passed for 337 yards with three TD passes and no INTs and he's now a PERFECT 11-0 in September games with 35 passing TDs and zero interceptions (unreal!). However, the KC defense wasn't able to slow the Cleveland offense, as Mayfield passed for 321 yards plus allowed the Browns to run for 153 yards (5.9 YPC). The Ravens' RB corps has been decimated by injury but led by Lamar Jackson's 86 yards (7.2 YPC), Baltimore ran for 189 yards (5.6 YPC). Jackson completed 19 of 30 for 235 yards with one TD and no INTs. The Chiefs are the most talked about and analyzed team in the NFL. Even more so than the Bucs. Even the most casual NFL can tell you the strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters for Kansas City. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-20 on this field last season and deserve to be favored. However, let's return to the teams' Week 1 games. The Chiefs looked shaky for three-quarters last week, while the Ravens looked pretty good darned for three-quarters. However, KC won when the Browns 'woke up and remembered they were the Browns. As for the Ravens, they led 17-10 after three quarters, but an uncharacteristic meltdown in the fourth quarter saw them give up 17 points, before then losing by six more in OT. Bottom line? Kansas City likely shouldn't have won last week and Baltimore likely shouldn't have lost. A loss by Baltimore here drops them to 0-2 with the next two games on the road. Note that Baltimore has covered its last five regular season games as an underdog. Can you say SIX in a row. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
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My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The 1-0 Chargers welcome the 0-1 Cowboys to Los Angeles on Sunday, looking to start a season 2-0 for the first time since 2012. The Chargers escaped with a 20-16 road victory at Washington in Week 1, while the Cowboys lost a 31-29 heart-breaker at Tampa on Opening Night (on a last-second FG) and now look to avoid starting a season 0-2 for the first time since 2010. Dak Prescott was 42 of 58 for 403 yards, three touchdowns and an INT in the Cowboys Week 1 loss. Justin Herbert threw for 337 yards and a touchdown for the Chargers last weekend. Neither QB got any help from his running game, as Dallas ran for only 60 on 3.3 YPC (Elliott had just 33 yards) and Los Angeles ran for 90 yards on 3.1 YPC (Ekeler led with 57 yards). The big difference was on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas forced Tampa into four takeaways but still allowed 31 points on 431 yards. As for the Chargers' D, it held Washington to 16 points on only 259 yards. Prescott looked great in his first game back from a gruesome, season-ending leg injury last year. However, in the end, the Cowboys' poor offensive ways from last season carried over and in the end cost the team a victory. In comparison, LA converted 14-of-19 third down attempts. The 14 third-down conversions were the most by any team in the last decade in a single game. That number included Herbert and the offense converting four straight third downs to seal the victory at the end of the game. Both teams have tough games coming up. The Cowboys host the Eagles next Monday, while the Chargers travel to KC to face the Chiefs. Here's what I see in LA from the Chargers. The team is healthier, has an upgraded offensive line, improved special teams and solid coaching now with Brandon Staley in for Anthony Lynn. Herbert passed a major test against an aggressive Washington defense in Week 1 and now he faces likely one of the worst units in the entire league. I don't see any regression happening for Herbert, especially not against this weak Cowboys defense, which will be playing without its top pass-rushers. Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence fractured his foot in Wednesday's practice The Cowboys are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games (going back to late 2019) and I don't see them 'sneaking' under the number again this week at a MUCH-improved Chargers team. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET. The Cardinals looked great in their 38-13 destruction at Tennessee in Week 1 over the Titans. However, I think it's possible they just may get caught a little too contented here against a dangerous Vikings team looking to bounce back from a tough 27-24 OT loss at Cincinnati. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was 36 of 49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns (both to Adam Thielen, who caught nine balls). RB Dalvin Cook was "off his game with just had 61 yards (3.1 YPC) and a TD, while adding four catches for 43 Yards. The Vikings D allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 261 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) plus allowed Joe Mixon 127 yards rushing. The defense will have to play MUCH better, as Kyler Murray is the best combination passer/runner among all NFC quarterbacks. He threw for 289 yards at Tennessee with four TF+D passes plus ran for a fifth score. Hopkins and Kirk are two outstanding WRs and each caught a pair of TDs. That said, the Vikes had to deal with a couple of unlucky bounces at the end of their game with Bengals. As long as Kirk Cousins isn't playing in prime time, he's usually very solid. He was last week as well in the loss, but either way, I do think Minnesota can keep this very competitive again. Arizona is unfamiliar with being as home favorite, as it has happened just NINE time since the start of the 2018 and guess what? Thar cards are just 2-7 ATS in that roll. Yes, I have to point out that Minnesota's Week 1 loss is the team's EIGHTH consecutive ATDS loss going back to Week 11 of 2020. My answer to that is this team is TOO talented for that to continues and I say this a "perfect" spot for not just an ATS win but a SU one. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 50 m | Show |
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My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. Cincinnati held on for dear life in an emotional 27-24 OT win over the Vikings in Week 1. The Bengals gave up 10 points in the 4th quarter, including a game-tying 53-yard FG (0:00) to send the game into OT. However, Cincy did eke out the win. Meanwhile, the Bears 'took it on the chin' in LA in the season's first Sunday night game, losing 34-14. It was just 13-7 at the half but the Rams won the second half 21-7, as Stafford threw for 321 yards and three TDs in his LA debut. Joe Burrow was solid (20 of 27 for 261 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) plus RB Mixon was a pleasant surprise with 127 rushing yards. However, the Cincy 2ndy was riddled by Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two INTs without an INT despite 49 attempts. As noted above, Chicago's 2ndy wasn't any better than Cincy's. Veteran Andy Dalton is the Chicago starter at QB and he did not play well in his Chicago debut. However, the Bears did run for 134 yards (5.2 YPC) with Montgomery getting 108 on 6.8 YPC. Taking a look at this game reminds me that the worst thing bettors can do is to overreact at the beginning of the season. Not every team that struggles in Week 1 will continue to do so (and vice versa). Being successful in the NFL is much like handicapping the NFL, as making adjustments from week to week is crucial. The good news for the Bears? The NFC North is wide open, as Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay also all lost. The Packers looked pathetic. The Bengals on the other hand, are at their arch-nemesis Pittsburgh next week, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Jaguars. Can anyone say letdown spot? This is a solid great situational play, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after a 20 points or greater SU loss in its previous outing. What's more, Cincy head coach begins his third season with the Benagls and over the first two, the Bengals are just 2-14 SU on the road. Not much to 'cover' here and I expect Dalton to lead the Bears to a VERY satisfying win, that would at worst, leave them tied for the division lead. Small steps. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
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My 10* Division Game of the Year (AFC East) is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott took over the Bills in 2017 and promptly ended Buffalo's 17-year postseason drought. As he enters fifth season as Buffalo's head coach, he's led the Bills to THREE playoff appearances in his first four seasons, including falling just ONE win shy of the team's first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season in 2020 when they lost the AFC championship game 38-24 at KC. Miami's Brian Flores begins his third season with the Dolphins and his team just missed a playoff berth in 2020, finishing 10-6. Optimism was running high in Miami entering 2021, especially for a franchise that has made just TWO playoff appearances in the previous 19 years! The teams got off two different starts in Week 1, as the Bills were upset 23-16 at home by the Steelers, while the Dolphins ruined Mac Jones' NFL debut with a 17-16 win in New England. The Bills allowed Pittsburgh to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, seven coming on a blocked punt TD return. Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2021 but looked no better than OK, throwing for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) but that came on 51 attempts! In the end, Allen led his team to just 16 points! Tua Tagovailoa had 202 passing yards, one TD, and one INT last week He got little help from a running game that was held to just 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC). The Miami defense allowed Jones to throw for 281 yards (no INTs) and RB Harris had 100 yards on the ground but in the end, the Pats could only muster 16 points (the one stat that matters MOST!). It might be easy to call for a Buffalo bounce back after a humbling home loss to the Steelers in Week 1, but the Bills may just be the most overhyped team in the league. My call here is for Miami to earn a second straight AFC East win, as the Dolphins jelled in the second half of last season and opened 2021 with a win over Belichick in his backyard last Sunday. Miami left backers smiling down the stretch of 2020, covering SIX straight at home, winning FIVE of them SU (lone loss, but an ATS win, was against KC). Josh Allen is NO Patrick Mahomes and how sweet would a Miami win be? The Dolphins were the only AFC East team to win in Week 1 and a "W" in this one would move them to 2-0, with the Bills falling to 0-2. That's what I expect and any points are just a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
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My 9* NFC 'Least' Game of the Month is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET. The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9, earning the division the moniker of NFC 'Least.' In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. How did things go in Week 1? The Eagles won impressively 32-6 in Atlanta and the Cowboys lost 31-29 at Tampa Bay on a last-second FG, but Washington and New York both lost (0-2 ATS). The Giants travel to D.C. off a 27-13 home loss to Denver, a game in which QB Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard TD run with no time left on the clock. Washington's defense was the reason it won the division last season but that D allowed the Chargers to gain 424 yards and most notably, to convert 14 of 19 third down attempts. Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury early on (3 of 56 for 13 yards) and it looks as if Taylor Heinicke (from the FB powerhouse of Old Dominion) will be Thursday night's starting QB. It's a short week but I like the Giants. Daniel Jones looked OK, as he had 267 passing yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions (37 attempts. However, the Giants NEED a return to form by Saquan Barkley (10 carries for 26 yards). The Giants have 'owned' this series lately, winning the last FIVE (4-1 ATS). Want more? The Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road, while the Washington Football team is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six when playing the role of favorite. I expect an outright but grab as many points as you can, The play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-12-21 | Bears +9 v. Rams | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -125 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
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My 9* SNF Magic is on the Chicago Bears. Both teams are starting new quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford is going to have his hands full now that he's out of the dome in Detroit and amidst the difficult NFC West. Andy Dalton will get the call to start off with in Chicago, with Justin Fields as a very capable backup ready to step in if needed. I think the Bears veteran can match Rams' new QB Matthew Stafford's performance (who will face his former team the Lions in Week 7.) The Rams also have to still fill the void left by Cam Akers, who was lost to a torn Achilles. Granted, the Rams have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball, but I'm not convinced that Stafford is going to be able to seamlessly fit into this West Coast offense and Conference overall. The Rams also have to transition for a tricky non-conference road game at Indianapolis next weekend, before then returning home to host the defending champs. The Bears on the other hand have a very manageable early schedule, which sees them return home to face the Bengals next, followed by the Browns and Lions. All games are important in a 17 game season, but the Bears will be looking really good if they can manage to pull off a road upset here. One final thing, Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NFC road games as an underdog in the +6.5 to +8.5 points range. I'm not calling for the outright. But everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. As such, grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 15 m | Show |
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My AFC 10* Game of the Month is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET. Both teams are predicted to do well this season. Obviously, that's no surprise for KC but it looks as if Cleveland has finally "turned the corner." The Chiefs have exceeded their O/U season win total eight seasons in a row. They're a +445 favorite to win Super Bowl 56 and +234 leader to repeat as conference Champion. These teams played here last season in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Kansas City had to hold on for dear life in the 22-17 victory. Chiefs' star QB Patrick Mahomes left that one early with an injury. What I do definitely think can't be ignored though, is that the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series, including the playoffs. Cleveland has gotten progressively better each of the last five seasons and that progression is going to continue this year. Especially on the defensive side of the ball, as it concentrated heavily in that department in the offseason, signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II at No. 26 overall. This is a big contract year for Browns' QB Baker Mayfield. He'll benefit from a 100% healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will once again be contending at the end of the season. Of course, they will be. I won't try and bash Kansas City, it's obviously one of the best in the entire league and as long as Mahomes stays healthy, a Super Bowl victory is definitely a very real possibility again. However, KC went just 8-11 ATS last year including the playoffs. Anything can happen in Week 1. It's unpredictable. The bottom line is, I think that Mayfield has the offense around him to keep pace with Mahomes. In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-12-21 | Jaguars -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
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My 9* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Jax Jaguars at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis Monday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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| 09-12-21 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 82 h 7 m | Show |
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My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Seattle at 1:00 ET. Seattle has made the playoffs in EIGHT of the last nine years. The 'Hawks won 12 games last year. The Colts also made the playoffs last season, while winning 11 games. Seattle is a difficult offensive team for anyone to handle and it all starts with QB Russell Wilson. He has plenty of 'weapons' around him, including RB Chris Carson and WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks have a strong defense as well, one which includes Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs, and DJ Reed. Seattle is poised for a big year defensively, many feel a unit that could rival the famed "Legion Of Boom." The Colts played amazingly well with Philip Rivers under center last year, but Carson Wentz will be the FOURTH new starting QB for Indianapolis in the last four seasons. RB Johnathan Taylor was big last year, and the defense was a strength as well for Indianapolis. Seattle comes in as the road favorite, meaning oddsmakers would make them about a TD favorite on a neutral field. I'd agree with that plus Seattle owns a distinct advantage at the QB position. Wentz has struggled the last few seasons, and he's on a new team under a new system and I just can't see him keeping pace with Wilson's offense down the stretch. Lay the short price. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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| 09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
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My 10* NFL Week 1 Season-Opener is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Did anyone think the Buccaneers were really going to win the Super Bowl last year? They were one of the early favorites, but not many would have predicted Tampa winning the Super Bowl after about Week 14. Does anyone think Tampa can repeat? Even for the best teams of all time, repeating as NFL champion is an unbelievably difficult thing to do. The Bucs though are once again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season and while Tom Brady and company may indeed go on to do just that, I think they'll have their hands full with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys team that will collectively be playing with a chip on their shoulders this season. Prescott got injured early on last year and the Cowboys went on to finish 6-10. The offense was decent even without Prescott in, but the problem for the Cowboys was on the other side of the ball. Dallas was active in the offseason to address several defensive issues, and I expect a dramatic improvement. Keep your eyes on Micah Parsons, who could easily win Defensive Player of the Year this season. What more can I say about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that hasn't been said a million times already? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the strengths and weaknesses of the Buccaneers, also the cast of characters in all three phases, and the coaching staff as well. So why will Brady and Bruce Arians get caught "looking past" the Cowboys on Opening night? Tampa could be caught flat-footed here out of the gate, as it faces a relatively "simple" opening schedule, with Atlanta coming to town next Sunday, followed by road games at the Rams and Patriots. Dallas on the other hand has two straight road games to open the season, including a tough one at the Chargers in Week 2. I think Prescott and the Cowboys throw their best show in Week 1. I also expect the Dallas defense to be vastly improved this season. Will those things combine to deliver an outright victory for the visiting side in the Champs house? Probably not, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. These teams last met in 2018 when Dallas beat Tampa Bay for the 7th time in the last eight matchups. Is that old news? Yes, but this is NOT. The Bucs are on just a 7-19-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. As such, grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 130 h 29 m | Show |
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My 10* LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET. Super Bowl 55 will not be a rematch of the first-ever Super Bowl (Kansas City/Green Bay on Jan 15, 1967) but one would be hard-pressed to argue against the fact that this is one of the most-anticipated matchups of all-time. Tom Brady left New England and Bill Belichick in his rearview mirror and while the Pats failed to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 by going 7-9 (Belichik's only other losing season in New England came in his first season with the Pats in 2000), Brady led one of the NFL's biggest losers (Tampa Bay) to its second-ever Super Bowl. Brady is now in his 10th Super Bowl (six wins in his first nine tries), where the G.O.A.T. will take on the defending champion Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes who many (most?) believe is the "G.O.A.T in Waiting." Mahomes and the Chiefs ended last season with NINE straight wins, including a 3-0 run in the playoffs. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 14-1 record through 16 weeks in 202 and then sat out Week 17 since KC had clinched the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their four first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin over the Browns. Mahomes was KO'd in the 3rd quarter but KC held on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes wasn't cleared to play until Friday for e the AFC championship game and while the Bills led 9-0 after one quarter, the Chiefs would outscore the Bills 38-6 to take a commanding 38-15 lead by the mid-4th quarter (38-24 final). Mahomes threw for 325 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, after completing 21 of 30 for 255 yards and one TD (no INTs) and a rushing TD against the Browns. TE Kelce caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards (11 TDs) during the regular season and has added 21 catches and three TDs in two playoff games. WR Hill caught 87 passes for 1,276 yards with 15 TDs (plus two rushing TDs) in the regular season, while catching 17 balls in two playoff games to average 16.6 YPC. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire (803 yards) has been a non-factor in the playoffs but Darel Wiliams has run for 130 yards on 5.0 YPC. Brady had two TD passes and 381 yards vs Washington but in wins over the Saints (54.5% for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and Packers (55.6% for 280 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs), has not produced vintage Brady efforts. RB Aaron Jones has been limited to 78 yards on 3.4 YPC by injury (ran for 978 yards on 5.1 YPC and 7 TDs in the regular season) but Fournette has "turned back time" rushing for 211 yards and two TDs, while catching 14 passes with one TD. SIX players have caught Brady's seven playoff TD passes. Evans has two TDs (10 catches / 17.3 YPC), Godwin matches Fournette with 14 postseason catches (15.9 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Brate has 11 catches and one TD. Tampa Bay's defense has been superb in winning THREE straight road games. It held Washington to 289 yards, the Saints to 294 yards (forced four turnovers, including three INTs of Brees) and then shutting down Green Bay's running game (67 yards) while sacking Rodgers FIVE times. Yes, Tampa Bay is the first team to ever host a Super Bowl game but in the "Year of COVID," is that really an edge? Brady's career and especially his success in the postseason is without peer but his efforts against the Saints and the Packers were FAR from impressive (see above). Meanwhile, Mahomes has put up remarkable numbers in his first three full seasons as a starter, going 37-8 with 114 TD passes and just 23 INTs in attempts. He's 6-1 in his seven career postseason games, throwing 17 TDs and just two INTs for a 109.8 QB rating. It's MORE than fair to point out that prior to KC's 38-24 win in the AFC championship game that the Chiefs were on a 1-8 or 0-8-1 ATS run but it's equally fair to counter with the fact that Mahomes enters the Super Bowl having gone 25-1 SU in his last 26 starts (including the postseason). Tampa Bay's defense will NOT be able to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense. Mahomes has a LONG way to go to surpass (if ever can) Brady's career accomplishments but this Super Sunday belongs to the 25-year-old. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 6:40 ET. Buffalo QB Josh Allen did not have a big day against the Ravens (206 passing yards / one TD) and the Bills ran for just 32 yards but the Buffalo D held Baltimore's running game in check. CB Taron Johnson literally "stole the show" when he picked off Lamar Jackson and returned it 101 yards for a TD in the late third, breaking Baltimore's back. Buffalo's 17-3 win allowed the Bills to advance to the AFC championship game for the first time since 1994. The Bills head to KC on an EIGHT-game winning streak and have won 11 of 12 (lone loss was the result of that 'Hail Mary' miracle at Arizona in Week 10). Patrick Mahomes hadn't played in 21 days (since the Chiefs clinched the AFC's top seed in Week 16) when he took the field last Sunday against the Browns. However, the Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their FOUR first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin. Mahomes completed 11 of his first 12 passes and was 19 of 25 for 233 yards by halftime. Mahomes was KO'd from the game in the third quarter and the Chiefs had to hold on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes will take the field Sunday having won his last 11 starts, as KC becomes the first AFC team to host three consecutive conference title games. The good news for the Kansas City Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes is planning to play. Mahomes said Friday that he is out of concussion protocol and is ready to start Sunday's game/ "Talking to all of the doctors and going through all of the testing, we have the belief that I'll have no lingering effects and I'll be able to go out there and be who I am,'' said Mahomes, who practiced for the third consecutive day on Friday. Buffalo QB Josh Allen and the Bills lost a 27-16 Week 6 home game to the Chiefs but have since won EIGHT straight and 11 of 12. Allen joins Mahomes plus legends Brady and Rodgers in the NFL's 'Final 4' and has had a season worthy of being in the same class as his counterparts. He completed 69.2 percent in the regular season for 4,544 yards (had EIGHT 300-yard games) with 37 TDs and just 10 INTs (107.2 QB rating). The Bill's running game (107.7 YPG ranks 20th) is suspect but the addition of Stefon Diggs was HUGE. Diggs' All-Pro season included NFL highs of 127 catches and 1,535 yards (also eight TDs). Fellow WR Beasley added a career-high 82 catches. Mahomes didn't play in the Chiefs' last regular-season game after they had already clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed. He finished completing 66.3% for 4,740 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs (QB rating 108.2). KC's running game was not much better than Buffalo's (121.4 YPG) but rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (803 yards / 4.4 YPC) is expected back after missing the Cleveland game with an ankle injury. KC has GREAT depth at receiver but Sammy Watkins (slowed by injuries all season) is expected to play here, joining an outstanding group led by All-World TE Kelce (105 catches / 1,416 yards / 11 TDs) and WR Hill (87 catches / 15 TDs). The Bills were not up to the challenge of playing the Chiefs in Week 6 (in Buffalo), as KC held them to 206 total yards. Allen had a season-low 122 passing yards, the team ran for just 84 yards and Diggs had six catches but for only 46 yards. Meanwhile, Mahomes went 21 of 26 for 225 yards with two TDs and no INTs (128.4 QB rating) and Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 yards! Kansas City ended last season winning its final NINE games (including the playoffs) and is 15-2 this season, after beating Cleveland. That's 24-2 SU and KC is just a three-point favorite here at home (Mahomes 'situation' has kept the number this low). I noted that Mahomes has won his last 11 starts (how about 24-1 over his last 25?) and in his five career home starts in the playoffs, has 15 TDs against zero INTs. That's good enough for me to back KC. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 37 m | Show |
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My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET. Tom Brady and the Bucs' offense turned three of four Saints turnovers into TDs and Tampa Bay beat the Saints 30-20 in the divisional round of the playoffs Sunday night at New Orleans. The Saints had beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular season meetings, 34-24 at home in Week 1 and then 38-3 at Tampa in Week 9. Two of those TDs came on short passes to WR Mike Evans and RB Leonard Fournette. Then, after an interception by LB Devin White, Brady drove the Bucs to the one-yard-line, from where he scored himself with 4:57 left to virtually ensure his 14th trip to a conference championship game but his first in the NFC. Brady finished 18 of 33 for 199 yards with two TD passes and that TD run. The 30-20 Tampa Bay win resembled more of a defensive struggle, as the Bucs had a modest 316 total yards and the Saints had just 294. However, unlike in his previous two meetings with the Saints (five INTs and six sacks), Brady was not intercepted and largely avoided pressure, taking only one sack. |
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| 01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 3:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Saturday afternoon by 3:00 ET. |
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| 01-16-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -117 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
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My 9* "Battle of the Bs" is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET. The Baltimore Ravens ended last season on a 12-game winning streak and entered the 2019 postseason 14-2 as the AFC's No. 1 seed. However, the Ravens lost 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. The two teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Ravens drew the 4th-seeded Titans in the Wild Card round last Sunday and the THIRD time was 'the charm!' The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but dominated the rest of the way in winning 20-13. Lamar Jackson finally got his first postseason victory (0-2), running for 136 yards and a 48-yard TD while throwing for 179 yards. The Baltimore D held Tennessee to its fewest points all season and smothered 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry. Henry had run all over the Ravens with 328 yards rushing combined in the last two meetings but had his worst performance of the season, gaining only 40 yards on 18 carries. It's been a season to remember for Buffalo in 2020. QB Josh Allen set franchise records of 4,544 passing yards and 37 TDs as well as helping provide a new identity to a rising team that posted the franchise's best victory total since 1991 in going 13-3. The Bills won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 but entered their game with the Colts having lost their last SIX playoff contests since last winning a postseason game following the 1995 season. The Bills' 27-24 win over the Colts snapped that 0-6 postseason skid, winning their first playoff game since a 37-22 win over Miami on Dec 30, 1995. Allen passed for 324 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (121.6 QB rating), while leading the team in rushing with 54 yards and a TD. He's in just this third season but in two playoff games, has become only the FIFTH player since at least 1940 to score a touchdown rushing, passing and receiving in his playoff career (he scored on a 16-yard catch from John Brown in a 22-19 OT loss at Houston a year ago). Baltimore's Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati in Week 17. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards in that contest and led the NFL in rushing for the second straight season (191.9 YPG). How good is the Ravens' running game? It ran for 1,573 yards during its current 6-0 SU & ATS streak, which is more than SIX teams ran for all season! The Ravens are only the third team in NFL history to have three players top 700 yards rushing in a single season with Jackson (1,005 yards), rookie J.K. Dobbins (805) and Gus Edwards (723). Baltimore's defense finished second to the Rams in allowing just 18.9 PPG on the season. Allen's OUTSTANDING season was sure helped by the signing of WR Stefon Diggs, who caught 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight TDs in the regular season. He then caught six passes for 128 yards (one TD) vs Indy. Fellow WR Beasley had a career season, catching 82 passes (4 TDs) for 967 yards. Beasley caught seven passes vs the Colts. However, there is a slight concern that BOTH Diggs (oblique) and Beasley (knee) have been somewhat limited this week in practice. It's true that Buffalo enters on a SEVEN-game winning streak and has won 10 of 11, losing only at Arizona when Murray and Hopkins connected on that improbable "Hail Mary." That said, Baltimore has been playing with a win-or-done urgency since early December, following a 1-4 skid that dropped it to 6-5. The Ravens were depleted by a COVID-19 outbreak in a 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh (but covered), before reeling off six consecutive wins and seven straight ATS wins. The Ravens are 'on a mission of redemption' from last season and it WON'T end here in Buffalo. Hey, maybe the Ravens can get the Browns to upset the Chiefs, meaning Baltimore would host the AFC championship game. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
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My 10* LEGEND Play is on the GB Packers at 4:35 ET. The Rams started undrafted rookie QB John Wolford at Seattle last week due to Jared Goff's thumb injury but they beat the NFC West champion Seahawks by battering Russell Wilson and avoiding mistakes. The Rams allowed the fewest points (18.5 PPG) and total yards (281.9 YPG) during the regular season and allowed Seattle just 278 total yards and 11 FDs, while holding them to 20 points. Russell Wilson completed only 11 of 27 (40.7%) for 174 yards with two TDS, while throwing a "pick-6" and getting sacked FIVE times (QB rating of 72.1)! Wilson finished the regular season having completed 68.8% for almost 300 YPG with 40 TDs and just 13 INTs with a QB rating of 105.1. The victory came at a price though. Wolford was KO'd in the game and the Rams will go back to starter Jeff Goff, who is less than three weeks removed from thumb surgery. Goff was nowhere near 100% last Saturday, completing 9 of 19 for 1555 yards with one TD and zero INTs. What's more, defensive tackle Aaron Donald (ribs) and leading WR Cooper Kupp (knee) were injured. The Rams have expressed confidence that Donald, a six-time All-Pro, will play Saturday. Head coach Sean McVay said that "unless something unforeseen happens, the Terminator will be ready." Kupp (92 catches) also insists he'll play. He's joined by fellow WR Woods (90 catches / six TDs) to give LA an outstanding WR duo. The Rams' most important offensive players right now might be rookie RB Cam Akers and left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Although both are recovering from recent injuries, they're the keys to a revitalized ground game that racked up 164 yards rushing last week. Akers missed Week 16 and had just 34 yards on 21 attempts in Week 17, before rushing for 131 yards and one TD vs Seattle. The Rams come to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and a Green Bay offense that led the NFL in scoring at 31.8 PPG and also committed the fewest TOs (11). Rodgers was consistently GREAT in 2020, leading the NFL with 48 TDs, a 70.7 percent completion rate, a 121.5 passer rating, a league-tying-low five INTs. He's the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP award. WR Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 receptions with 18 receiving TDs in a season, as he finished with 115 receptions and 18 TDs in just 14 games. TE Tonyan had 52 catches (11 TDs), while RB Jones added 47 catches and two TDs. Like Adams, Jones missed two games but ran for 1,104 yards (5.5 YPC) and scored 11 rushing TDs. Green Bay lost a Nov 22 game at Indianapolis to the Colts in Week 11 (34-31) but has won SIX in a row since. Green Bay averaged 33.5 PPG during its winning streak and its defense also played very well, allowing only 18.5 PPG. The Packers will be playing a home game in front of paying spectators for the first time this season. The Lambeau Field crowd will include about 6,500 season-ticket holders as well as invited frontline health-care workers and first responders plus a league-mandated allotment for the visiting team. "That's going to help us, give us an extra added home-field advantage that we need, just bringing that extra juice," Packers running back Aaron Jones said. Most importantly, it will be 'Green Bay weather' on Saturday, with temps around freezing or below. Goff has only played two playoff games with temps under 32 degrees and has FIVE interceptions and zero TDs. Rodgers has 40 TDs and just 12 INTs in his 18 postseason games. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -116 | 152 h 57 m | Show |
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My NFL 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. The Cleveland Browns clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2002 with a 24-22 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The 11-5 Browns snapped the NFL's longest current playoff drought, making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. RB Nick Chubb rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown, ending the season with 1,067 (5.6 YPC) with 12 TDs, despite playing in only 12 games. QB Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 27 passes for 196 yards and a TD and also rushed for a season-high 44 yards. Pittsburgh had clinched the AFC North and a playoff spot in Week 16, so they rested Ben Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph got the start and completed 22 of 39 passes for 315 yards with two TDs and one INT. Now, one week later, the third-seeded Steelers and sixth-seeded Browns will "do it all over again" Sunday night in Pittsburgh. Mayfield had a promising rookie season but regressed in 2019, with 22 TDs and 21 INTs for a QB rating of just 78.8. However, he got better throughout the season and finished with 26 TDs and 8 INTs for a 95.9 QB rating in 2020. Chubb (see above) and Hunt (842 yards on 4.2 YPC with six TDs) have given Cleveland excellent balance, as Cleveland's running game comes in averaging 148.3 YPG on the ground (3rd-best). The Cleveland defense got slightly better as the season wore on but finished allowing 26.2 PPG (21st). The 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to complete 65.6% for 3,803 yards with 33 TDs and only 10 INTs in 15 games. The running game ranks last in the NFL (84.4 YPG) but "Big Ben" has an OUTSTANDING group of receivers. Schuster-Smith leads with 97 catches (9 TDs) but fellow WRs like Johnson (88 catches / 7 TDs), Claypool (62 catches / 9 TDs) and Washington (just 30 catches but five TDs) give Big Ben a plethora of options. The offense has averaged just 334.6 YPG (25th) but has managed to average 26.0 PPG, 12th-best. However, defense remains Pittsburgh's 'calling card.' The Steelers' D enters having allowed 19.5 PPG (3rd) on 305.8 YPG (3rd). Pittsburgh's 56 sacks are No. 1 in the NFL. The Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 but the franchise's last playoff win came way back in 1994! First-year Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, whose leadership helped end Cleveland's playoff drought, must now 'watch from afar,' after testing positive for COVID. I guess no AFC team would want to draw the Chiefs as its first playoff opponent but for the Browns, the LAST team they wanted was to face the Steelers, in a one-week turnaround, playing in Pittsburgh with "Big Ben back at QB. Contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but the Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Cleveland's postseason return lasts ONE game. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-10-21 | Ravens -3 v. Titans | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show |
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My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:05 ET. Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. These teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Titans battled the Indy Colts all season long for the AFC South title but clinched the division (via a tiebreaker) with a 41-38 win at Houston in Week 17. Derrick Henry rushed for a career-high 250 yards and became the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a season, in Tennessee's Week 17 win, capped by Sam Sloman 37-yard FG on the final play (banked it in). QB Ryan Tannehill totaled three TDs. Lamar Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards, which was the fourth most by a team since 1950. Baltimore didn't quite match last year's rushing record but the Ravens did lead the NFL with 191.9 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Mark Ingram topped 1,000-yards last season but this season was replaced by rookie Dobbins (805 yards on 6.0 YPC with nine TDs) and Edwards (723 yards on 5.0 YPC with five TDs). Baltimore's defense finished No. 2 in points allowed (18.9 PPG). Ryan Tannehill has had a career season by completing 65.5% for 3,819 yards with 33 TDs and seven INTs (106.5 QB rating). Henry had 2,027 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 17 TDs), as the Titans finished second to Baltimore with 168.1 YPG on the ground. WRs Brown (70 catches / 15.4 YPC / 11 TDs) and Davis (65 catches / 15.1 YPC / 5 TDs) team with TEs Smith (41 catches / 8 TDs) and Firkser (39 catches). The Tennessee D is no match for Baltimore's, allowing 27.4 PPG (24th) on 398.3 YPG (28th). That's 8.5 PPG and about 70 YPG more. The Ravens closing 5-0 SU & ATS run saw them outscore opponents on average, 37.2-to-17.8 PPG. Lamar Jackson has 'flopped' badly in two playoff games and I have to believe the "THIRD" time will be the charm. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
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My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:40 ET. The 10-6 Rams (No. 6 seed) and the 12-4 Seahawks (No. 3 seed) meet for a third time this season in Seattle on Saturday The teams split their two meetings this season, with Los Angeles winning 23-16 on Nov 15 at home (Week 10), while the Seahawks 'returned the favor' with a 20-9 win in Seattle (Week 16). Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay was asked whether he had a timetable to determine his starting QB and replied, "Yeah," he said. "Saturday at 1:39."Jared Goff suffered a fractured right thumb in a 20-9 loss at Seattle on Dec.27 and had surgery the following day. John Wolford replaced Goff last weekend against Arizona, helping the Rams clinch a playoff berth with an 18-7 victory. Wolford completed 22 of 38 passes for 231 yards and rushed for a team-high 56 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 200 and rush for 50 in their debut. Seattle has no QB concerns with Russell Wilson (4,212 yards / 40 TDs / 13 INTs). "Jared is our starting quarterback -- the reality is that he had a thumb surgery," McVay said. "We're monitoring that every single day, and that's something we're taking a day at a time, but the anticipation is both those guys are getting themselves ready to go." Along with Goff, LA's top rusher Cam Akers (625 yards) is questionable with an ankle injury and fellow RBs Henderson and Brown had done little for weeks. Some good news is that WR Kupp (92 catches) is expected to play after missing Week 17 (COVID) and along with Woods (90 catches) give LA a strong WR duo. TEs Higbee and Everett have combined for 85 catches with Higbee catching five TDs. Defense has been the key all season for the Rams, who ranks first in both scoring D (18.5 PPG) and total D (281.9 YPG). RB Chris Carson has been very solid the last six games with 358 yards on 4.8 YPC. He gives balance to a Seattle offense led by Wilson (see above) and the team's dynamic WR duo of Lockett (100 catches / 10 TDs) and Metcalf (83 catches / 10 TDs). Seattle opened 5-0 with Wilson and the offense overcoming the team's defensive woes. However, the Seahawks then lost THREE of four, before recovering with a 6-1 finish. Seattle's defense allowed 26.6 PPG over the first nine games of the season but in that 6-1 'finishing kick,' the 'Legion of Boom' moniker was applicable by allowing just 15.0 PPG! Seattle won the NFC West title for the first time since 2016 and will host a playoff game for the first time since since January 2017. If Goff plays, he can't possibly be anywhere near 100% and a Wolford/Wilson showdown is a "no-contest!" Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-03-21 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
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My *8 NFC West Showdown is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The 11-4 Seattle Seahawks have already clinched their first NFC West title since 2016, capturing the division title with a 20-9 victory against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. However, the Seahawks can still earn the NFC's top seed and a first-round bye with a victory but only with a loss by Green Bay at Chicago and a loss or tie by 11-4 New Orleans at 5-10 Carolina (not likely). That said, they will finish the 2020 regular season against the defending NFC champions 49ers, who are wrapping up a dismal regular season. San Francisco is 6-9 and will end its season in its 'home-away-from-home,' Glendale, Az. The Seahawks are relatively healthy, as Russell Wilson caps a strong year. He's completing 69.7% for 4,031 yards with 38 TDs and 13 INTS (QR rating of 106.30. He has two outstanding WRs in Lockett (88 catches / 8 TDs) and Metcalf (80 catches / 16.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and with RB Carson back healthy (273 yards on 4.9 YPC in four Dec games), the Seattle offense has excellent balance. However, it's Seattle HUGE improvement on defense that makes them an NFC title-contender. Seattle's Week 8 victory over the 49ers was the start of its defensive turnaround and an uptick in its pass rush. The Seahawks have 34 sacks in their last nine outings (most in the league over that span) and over Seattle's last five games, the defense has allowed just 12.2 PPG. It's true that the injury-plagued 49ers have shown a willingness to play the role of spoiler, as behind third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard, the 49ers dealt Arizona's playoff chances a blow with a 20-12 victory last weekend. Beathard completed 13 of 22 passes for 182 yards and three TDs and Jeff Wilson rushed for a career-high 183 yards and made a 21-yard touchdown catch. However, I believe last Sunday's game was Beathard's "15 minutes of fame' and up against this rejuvenated Seattle defense, will play MORE like the journeyman he is. Seattle has won 11 of the last 13 meetings against San Francisco and I'm willing to lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| 01-03-21 | Raiders -2.5 v. Broncos | 32-31 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
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My 8* AFC West Showdown is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET. Let me first address "the elephant in the room." The Raiders' once promising season was derailed by FIVE losses in the last six games following a 6-3 start. Their playoff hopes were extinguished by Jon Gruden's dubious decision in the closing minutes last week that resulted in a 26-25 last-second loss to Miami. That leaves the 7-8 Raiders (7-8) outside the playoffs for the 17th time in the past 18 seasons, as they play at Denver in their regular season finale. Here it comes! The Raiders have lost NINE consecutive regular season finales, FOUR in Denver! However, one could argue that Denver's season was arguably 'over' before it even began. Von Miller suffered a freak season-ending ankle injury six days before the opener, and the cavalcade of injured teammates followed. The injury epidemic and the coronavirus pandemic have been the primary drivers in Denver's FOURTH consecutive losing season and FIFTH straight year without a playoff berth. The Broncos had hoped to see QB Drew Lock make a big leap after he had an impressive ending to 2019 but the second-year QB out of Missouri has struggled. Lock has thrown more interceptions (15) than TD passes (14), while completing only 57.0% (he has at least one turnover in 11 straight games). That gives him a pathetic QB rating of 72.5. The offense averages just 19.5 PPG (29th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (25th). Turnovers, or the lack of forcing them, have contributed greatly to Denver's offensive AND defensive woes. Denver has 32 giveaways and just 12 takeaways, one shy of the franchise low set in 2008. Its turnover differential of minus-20, is double that of the next worst team (the 49ers are at minus-10)! Back to the Raiders. OK, they have nothing to play for in the standings but I like the fact this team is in that spot (we've seen how the Raiders have folded when games 'meant something'). Individually, TE Darren Waller is putting the finishing touches on one of the most productive seasons in Raiders history. He has 98 catches for 1,079 yards on the season (8 TDs) and needs seven catches to break Hall of Famer Tim Brown's single-season franchise record of 104 set in 1997. Second-year RB Jacobs needs just 24 yards to crack the 1,000-yard mark in his first two seasons plus QB Carr can put the final touch on what's been a career season (67.6% for 3,732 yards with 25 TDs and just seven INTs / QB rating of 102.2). The Raiders are 5-2 SU on the road this season, including a 40-32 win at KC in Week 5 (Chiefs ONLY loss of the season). The Raiders routed the Broncos 37-12 in Las Vegas (Week 10), while intercepting Lock FOUR times. Remember, this is NOT your father's Broncos, as they've lost FOUR of their last five season finales. 'Second verse, same as the first (Week 10)!" Good luck...Larry |
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| NFL Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 44 m | Show |
| 01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
| 01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -125 | 152 h 44 m | Show |
| 01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 132 h 48 m | Show |
| 01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 49 m | Show |
| 01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -4 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 86 h 37 m | Show |
| 01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | Top | 15-31 | Loss | -118 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
| 01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
| 01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
| 01-09-22 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show |
| 01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -1 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
| 01-02-22 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
| 01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
| 01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens +6.5 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
| 12-26-21 | Bills +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 8 m | Show |
| 12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 32 m | Show |
| 12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
| 12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
| 12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
| 12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show |
| 12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
| 12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
| 12-12-21 | Cowboys -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show |
| 12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
| 12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
| 12-05-21 | Ravens -4 v. Steelers | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -112 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
| 12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
| 12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
| 11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
| 11-28-21 | Steelers v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
| 11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
| 11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
| 11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 128 h 40 m | Show |
| 11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
| 11-21-21 | Ravens -4.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 16 m | Show |
| 11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
| 11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 48 m | Show |
| 11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 16 m | Show |
| 11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show |
| 11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
| 11-14-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
| 11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
| 11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
| 11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 25 m | Show |
| 11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 4 m | Show |
| 10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 101 h 47 m | Show |
| 10-31-21 | Patriots +5.5 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
| 10-31-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Browns | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
| 10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
| 10-25-21 | Saints -4 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
| 10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
| 10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 114 h 35 m | Show |
| 10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +4.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
| 10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
| 10-21-21 | Broncos +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
| 10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
| 10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers -5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
| 10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
| 10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
| 10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
| 10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show |
| 10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 129 h 46 m | Show |
| 10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
| 10-10-21 | Saints -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
| 10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
| 10-07-21 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
| 10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 22 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 28 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -114 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
| 09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
| 09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
| 09-26-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
| 09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Bills | 21-43 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
| 09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -118 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
| 09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
| 09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 127 h 39 m | Show |
| 09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
| 09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
| 09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 50 m | Show |
| 09-19-21 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
| 09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
| 09-12-21 | Bears +9 v. Rams | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -125 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
| 09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 15 m | Show |
| 09-12-21 | Jaguars -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
| 09-12-21 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 82 h 7 m | Show |
| 09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
| 02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 130 h 29 m | Show |
| 01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
| 01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 37 m | Show |
| 01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
| 01-16-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -117 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
| 01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
| 01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -116 | 152 h 57 m | Show |
| 01-10-21 | Ravens -3 v. Titans | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show |
| 01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
| 01-03-21 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
| 01-03-21 | Raiders -2.5 v. Broncos | 32-31 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
