Football Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* ACC Game of the Month is on Louisville at 8:00 ET. Louisville (6-7 in 2021) will square off at Syracuse (5-7) Saturday night in the season opener for both teams. Both teams are hoping to break through in the ACC Atlantic Division in 2022. Louisville hasn't done much lately, although the Cardinals did go 9-4 in 2016 and 8-5 in 2017 behind QB Lamar Jackson (Jackson won the Heisman in 2016). That said, Louisville begins this season just 20-29 (.408) the last four seasons. Syracuse is only 29-43 in six seasons under Dino Babers, with just 11 wins in the past three years. Syracuse won just five games last season, but it was a rebound campaign from the forgettable 2020 season (1-10). The Orange's Sean Tucker, was the top rusher in the ACC last season, setting a school-record with 1,496 rushing yards. However, Syracuse had the ACC's worst passing offense last season. QB Garrett Shrader struggled at times after taking the starting job late in the season. He's back, but the team is thin at QB after former starter Tommy DeVito left and won the starting job at Illinois. The Syracuse defense continues to struggle, having allowed 30 or more points in FIVE of the last seven seasons. Returning to Louisville, the Cardinals are led by dynamic QB Malik Cunningham, the ACC's top rushing QB. Cunningham returns after becoming the second QB in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards. He rushed for 1,031 yards (6.0 YPC / 20 TDs), while passing for 2,941 yards (19 TDs and 6 INTs. The bottom line is that Louisville has dominated Syracuse by going 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with an average margin of 31.0 PPG. What changes here? NOTHING! Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-22 | Army v. Coastal Carolina -1.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Coastal Carolina at 7:00 ET. The Army Black Knights and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers meet Saturday in college football action from Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC. Jeff Monken was named Arm's head coach in 2014. His Army tenure started slow, with a 4-8 2014 season and 2-10 in 2015. However, he's led Army yo 52-27 record the last six years, taking the Black Knights to FIVE bowl seasons (4-1). In 2018, he became the first head coach to lead Army to three consecutive bowl appearances, consecutive 10-win seasons, and its first ever 11-win season. That resulted in a final AP Poll ranking of No. 19[ for Monken's 2018 Black Knights, the highest the Black Knights had finished in the final polls since legendary Army coach Earl 'Red' Blaik's 1958 squad. Jamey Chadwell's CCU team has been one of CFB's best storylines the last two years with Chanticleers going 11-1 in 2020 and 11-2 in 2021. Army's "not so secret" strength is its option attack. The players/parts change but the results remain steady. The last six seasons, Army has averaged between 273 YPG on the ground, finishing second in the nation in 2021 by averaging 280.6 YPG with 48 TDs. However, Coastal Carolina has gotten extra time to prep for the option and the Chanticleers have experience facing it against Georgia Southern. CCU dominated Ga Southern at home last season, holding the Eagles to EIGHT points in a 28-8 victory. The Chanticleers lost leading rusher Jones (1,040 yards / 13 TDs) but feel that Bennett (636 yards / 8.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and White (515 yards / 7.2 YPC / 7 TDs) will capably fill the void. The great news is that QB Grayson McCall returns, off passing for 2,873 yards with 27 TDs and just THREE interceptions. Army is a dangerous underdog, but the Black knights aren't getting enough points here. CCU has outscored opponents 37.2 to 20.3 in 2020 and 40.9 to 21.6 the last two seasons and own a 13-1 home record the last two seasons (lone loss by TWO points to Georgia Southern). I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-22 | Arizona v. San Diego State -6 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SD State at 3:30 ET. The Arizona Wildcats open their 2022 season with a visit to San Diego to face the Aztecs, who open their brand new on-campus stadium. Arizona's last winning season was back in 2017 (7-6). The Wildcats fell to 5-7 in 2018 and 4-8 in 2019. Then, Arizona went 0-5 in the COVID season of 202 and then 1-11 in 2021. In stark contrast, SD State has been to 10 bowls over the last 11 seasons, including going 12-2 last year, after a 38-24 Frisco Bowl win over UTSA. Arizona gets a boost at QB, as Jayden de Laura, the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Player of the Year while at Washington State last season, takes over at QB. He completed 227 of 359 passes for 2,798 yards, with 23 TDs and nine INTs in 2021. However, the Wildcats' have allowed 39.8 PPG in 2020 and 31.4 PPG in 2021. The fact that eight defensive starters return is not necessarily a "good thing" Speaking of defense, SD State has allowed 12.7 PPG, 17.8 PPG and 19.8 PPG (last season). The fact that EIGHT starters return on that side of the ball is a "GOOD thing." SD State lost their 1,000-yd rusher Greg Bell (1,019 yards) and its top-two QBs. However, the Aztecs add former Va Tech QB Burmeister (1,960 yards with 14 TDs and 4 INTs in 2021) plus still have a deep stable of productive RBs. I refuse to overthink this. SD State has to be thrilled to begin the season from brand new Snapdragon Stadium, after playing its home games the last two seasons in Carson, Ca (two hours away). "B-L-O-W-O-U-T" Alert issued. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +1 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Appalachian St at 12:00 ET. North Carolina (1-0) comes in off 56-24 home drubbing of FAMU, while Appalachian St will be playing its season opener. Mack Brown did an excellent job making North Carolina 'more than just a basketball school' back in the 1990s but then left for Texas. He would go 158-48 in his 16 years at Austin, leading the Longhorns to 15 bowl games. He posted 10 or more wins in NINE consecutive seasons (from 2001-09), famously winning the 2005 national championship over a great USC team. However, Texas would go just 30-21 from 2010 through 2013 and Brown resigned. He stepped away for five years but returned to North Carolina in 2019. The Tar Heels have gone a disappointing 21-17 in that span, as their explosive offense has been brought down by a leaky defense. No one will forget Appalachian St's shocking 34-32 road win over Michigan back in 2007, when the Mountaineers were still an FCS team. App St is now an FBS member and doing just fine. The Mountaineers have gone 83-19 (.814) the last seven years (2015-21), winning SIX consecutive bowl games before losing to WKU in last year's Boca Raton Bowl. They've had THREE different head coaches in that span, but the winning has never stopped. North Carolina QB Drake Maye has big shoes to fill in replacing record-setter Sam Howell. However, he fit into them just fine last Saturday in his debut for the Tar Heels. Maye threw five TD passes in his team's 56-24 win over visiting Florida A&M to become the first Tar Heels QB to accomplish the five-TD feat in his first career start. That said, winning at home vs a mediocre school like FAMU is one thing, winning at App St (38-5 the last seven years), is another. The Mountaineers have their own talented QB Chase Brice, who was just named last week to the watch list for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, a befitting honor for the sixth-year redshirt senior who established a school-record 3,337 passing yards last season. App St also returns the RB duo of Noel (1,128 yards / 5.7 YPC) and Peoples (926 yards / 14 TDs). FOUR of their five starting OL returns. In-state bragging rights are at stake here and has noted, Appalachian State has repeatedly found itself in the top-25 since moving up to the FBS. Appalachian State defeated North Carolina in 2019 at Chapel Hill, a loss that didn't sit well with Tar Heels fans given the Mountaineers have always been viewed as the little brother. Boone, North Carolina will be 'rocking' for this 12 noon ET start and I say "the little brother" gets a surprisingly comfortable win. Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-22 | Illinois v. Indiana -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Big 10 Game of the Month is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Two teams that don't figure to contend in the Big 10 conference in 2022 meet Saturday, when Illinois (5-7 LY) visits Bloomington to face Indiana (2-10 LY). Bret Bielema took over at Wisconsin when Barry Alvarez retired in 2006 and in seven years went 64-28, earning SEVEN consecutive bowl berths. He left to take the Arkansas job but went only 29-34 in five seasons and then spent a few years as as an NFL assistant, before being hired at Illinois for the 2021 season after Lovie Smith was fired, The Illini do have a game under their belts in 2022, having routed Wyoming 38-6 last Saturday. Tom Allen took over at Indiana after Kevin Wilson abruptly resigned back in 2016. He opened with back-to-back 5-7 seasons but led Indiana to a Gator Bowl berth and an 8-5 record in 2019, The Hoosiers were a HUGE surprise in the COVID season of 2022. They finished the 2020 regular season 6-1 ranked seventh in the AP poll, eighth in the coaches' poll, and 11th in the CFP rankings and earned a bid in the Outback Bowl, where they lost to Ole Miss, 20–26. Following the culmination of the season, Allen would be named the 2020 Big Ten Coach of the Year, Allen's 2021 Indiana team was ranked 17th to begin the 2021 season, but quickly fell out of the rankings after a 34-6 loss to Iowa in their first game of the season. The team finished the season 2-10 and went 0-9 in Big Ten play. Tommy DeVito, a transfer from Syracuse, was named the starter for Illinois (1-0) days before the opener. He was 27-of-37 for 194 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. RB Brown added 151 yards rushing with two TDs, The Hoosiers are taking a page from Illinois coach Bret Bielema's book by withholding the identity of their starting QB for the Friday night affair in Bloomington. Fifth-year senior Jack Tuttle started two games in 2021 but wasn't handed the starting job. He said he has carried himself "with a chip on my shoulder" since the end of last season, but he's locked in a duel with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. The former Tigers' QB made 20 starts at Mizzou and passed for 5,058 yards with 23 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 66.3 completion percentage. Here's why I like Indiana in this spot. The winning team has covered 14 straight in this series. Maybe even more notable for this game is that Indiana is a MONEY-MAKING 11-2 ATS as a home favorite during Allen's tenure. Expect Indiana to get the win at home and move the series win/cover streak to 15 in a row! Good luck...Larry |
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08-27-22 | North Texas v. UTEP +1.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* CFB 2022 Season Opener is on UTEP at 9:00 ET. North Texas and UTEP both ended last year's regular season at 6-6 and went 'bowling.' However, each team's journey to those 6-6 finishes came via very different paths. The Mean Green opened 1-6 but finished with FIVE straight wins (and covers), highlighted by the team's 45-33 win (as a 10-point home underdog) over an 11-0 UTSA team that was ranked No. 15. The team averaged a whopping 283.0 YPG rushing in its closing 5-0 run, including 340 against the Roadrunners. In stark contrast, UTEP got off to a surprising 6-1 start, before losing FOUR of five to end the regular season. What the teams did have in common was that both lost their respective bowl games. Of note, for UTSA's Seth Littrell, it was his FIFTH bowl appearance in his six seasons at UTSA. Meanwhile for UTEP head coach Dana Dimmel, last year's bowl game was the school's FIRST since 2014. What's more, UTEP's SEVEN victories in 2021 matched UTEP's total over the previous FIVE seasons combined. Deandre Torrey (1,215 / TDs) left for the NFL but was just released by the Eagles. North Texas does have equality and depth at RB but I don't see any way the Mean Green will average 233.5 YPG rushing like last season (5th-best in FBS). A real issue for North Texas is the team's QB play Austin Aune did lead North Texas to its season-ending five-game winning streak but as noted above, he was more of a 'caretaker,' as the Mean's Green's devastating rushing attack carried the load. Aune completed just 51.9 percent last season with 9 TDs and 9 INTs. That was a big drop off from his 13 TD, 4 INT season of 2020. The Miners own a solid edge at the QB position, as Gavin Henderson made a big leap from 2020, passing for 3,218 yards with 18 TDs and 13 INTs in 2021. It can NOT go unmentioned that in 2021, Hardison became the first UTEP signal caller to surpass 3,000 yards passing in school history. I believe he will be the "difference-maker" in this one. Let me add that UTEP also has a solid edge on defense with EIGHT starters back. The home team has covered SIX straight in this series and UTEP is 7-2 SU at home the last two years. Good luck...Larry |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* SB 56 Super Pick is on the LA Rams at 6:30 ET. The Super Bowl is back in the Los Angeles mark for the EIGHTH time, as only Miami (11) and New Orleans (10) have hosted more. Sunday's game will be played at SoFi Stadium (home to the Rams), as for the SECOND consecutive year a team has played host to a Super Bowl playing in its home stadium (the Bucs hosted SB 55 last year at Raymond James). No team had hosted a Super Bowl in its home stadium for the first 54 Super Bowls but it's now happened in back-to-back seasons. Could the Cards make it three years in a row by hosting next year's Super Bowl in Glendale, Az? Seems like a stretch but how many had the Bengals, coming off a 4-11-1 year and having last won a playoff game in the 1990 season, reaching this year's Super Bowl? Or for that matter, how many had the Rams as the NFC favorite to be here, led by Matthew Stafford and his 0-3 career record in the postseason during his 12 years with the Lions? Anyway, it's the Bengals and Rams in Super Bowl 56, playing in the same city as the first-ever Super Bowl. That game was played in the LA Coliseum, as Lombardi's Packers beat Hank Stram's Chief 35-10. The game was played on Jan 15, 1967 (1966 season) with the official merger not coming until the start of the 1970 season. Those were the days! |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My 9* NFC West Game of the Year (late-Breaker) is on the LA Rams at 6:40 ET. Who'da thunk it? Sean McVay of the Rams, and Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers were both hired within a month of each other in 2017 and now, the winner of Sunday's NFC championship game will be making his second Super Bowl appearance in a five-year span. The Rams made it to Super Bowl 53 but lost 13-3 to the Pats and the 49ers made it to Super Bowl 54, where they lost 31-20 to the Chiefs. The 49ers were just 3-5 through Week 9 but would go 7-2 SU & ATS down the stretch. San Francisco came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Rams 27-24 in OT in Week 18, capped by a walk-off interception, after they had kicked a FG in the OT period. That "W" beat out the Saints for the NFC's last unclaimed spot. As for the Rams, they opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth (at best) and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games (Cards would finish 2-4) and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (see above), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle.
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -125 | 152 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' 38-Club Play is on the KC Chiefs at 3:00 ET. The just-completed Divisional Round is being hailed as the NFL's "Greatest Postseason Weekend of All-Time" and you won't get an argument from me. Everyone has either watched, seen the highlights of or read the countless recaps of the four games, so I'll move on. The 2021 NFL season is down to its version of a 'Final Four, on January 30th, or Championship Sunday, if you prefer. The Cincinnati Bengals entered the postseason without a playoff win in 31 years but here in January, have won TWO playoff games in a seven-day span! After a 19-16 win over the Titans (on a last-second FG), the Bengals have advanced to the AFC Championship for the 1st time since the 1988 season, the same year in which they lost the 'John Candy Super Bowl' to the SF 49ers of Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Ronnie Lott. Awaiting them at Arrowhead Stadium will be the KC Chiefs, who edged the Buffalo Bills 42-36 in what's being called 'the greatest game' in NFL history! I'm sure that statement could be debated, but one would have to come up with quite an argument. The Chiefs, who played in Super I and then won Super Bowl IV, the last played prior to the 1970 merger, now become the first team in NFL history to host a conference championship in FOUR consecutive seasons. |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 132 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET. The Bills and Chiefs met in last year's AFC championship game, with KC winning at home. The two teams opened the 2021 season as favorites to meet again in this season's title game and while the Bills and Chiefs are meeting in the 2021 postseason (again in Kansas City), it's ONE week sooner than anticipated. However, at one point during the recently completed regular season a Buff/KC Part 2 was NOT looking likely. Buffalo was shocked in Week 1 at home by the Steelers (lost 23-16) and while the Bills rebounded quickly with FOUR straight wins, they would lose FIVE of their next eight to fall to 7-6, falling TWO games behind the 9-4 Pats. However, the Bills ended the season with FOUR straight wins (including a 33-21 victory in New England) to finish 11-6, while the Pats' lost THREE of four. The 11-6 Bills won the AFC East, with the Pats earning a wild card berth. The Bills hosted the Pats in the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend and I'm pretty sure you KNOW how that turned out (more later, in case you missed it). The Chiefs entered the current season off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (1-1) and having won FIVE consecutive AFC West titles. However, after just SEVEN games, the Chiefs were a sub-.500 team at 3-4! The 'cry' went out, "What's wrong with the Chiefs and in particular, Patrick Mahomes?" KC answered that question emphatically, going 9-1 to finish the regular season 12-5 and win the AFC West for the SIXTH straight season. However, that ONE loss (34-31 at Cincy on a last-second FG), cost KC the No. 1 seed. Tennessee (also 12-5) won the tiebreaker over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage (Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3 in Tennessee back in Week 7!). Again, in case you were asleep, the Chiefs beat the Steeklers 42-21 last weekend in a wild card game. Buffalo's Josh Allen (63.3% for 4,407 yards with 36 TDs and 15 INTs / 763 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC with 6 TDs) had a terrific season (again!) He then set a team playoff record with five TD passes in a 47-17 DESTRUCTION of the division-rival Patriots in a wild-card playoff game. Buffalo became the NFL's first team in the Super Bowl era to score on each of its seven possessions that didn't end with a kneel down. Allen completed 21 of 25 for 308 yards without an INT (QB rating of 157.8!), while adding 66 rushing yards. RB Singletary (870 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) ran for 81 yards and two TDs, while TE Knox (49 catches / 9 TDs) had two TD receptions. Allen has a terrific group of WRs, led by Diggs (103 catches / 10 TDs) plus Beasley (82 catches), Sanders (42 / 14.9 / 4 TDs) and Davis (35 / 15.7 / 6 TDs). Buffalo's offense ranked 3rd in scoring (28.4 PPG) but its defense was No. in the NFL in points allowed (17.0) and yards allowed (272.8). That's a pretty sweet 'daily double.' Mahomes had an 'average' season (for him), completing 66.3 % for 4,839 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs (ho hum!). He then completed 30 of 39 for 404 yards with five TD passes and one iNT in the rout of Pittsburgh. RBs Williams (558 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 TDs) and Edwards-Helaire (517 yards on 4.3 YPC with 4 TDs) have missed time all season. Both are questionable here but McKinnon, who ran for just 62 yards all season, ran 12 times for 61 yards (5.1 YPC) vs Pittsburgh. The Chiefs own the best WR-TE duo in the NFL with Hill (111 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (92 catches / 9 TDs) plus have depth at WR in Hardeman (59 catches) and Pringle (42 catches / 5 TDs). The KC offense has averaged 28.2 PPG (4th) but the defense has allowed 368.9 YPG, ranking 27th. The good news is that KC is allowing a more modest 21.4 PPG, which ranks 8th-best. The point spread here indicates that Buffalo would be a favorite on a neutral field and maybe that's right, as the Bills crushed the Chiefs 38-10 at KC back in Week 5. However, doesn't that give KC even more incentive here? Allen was great vs the Pats but note that in last year's AFC title game, Allen was badly outplayed by Mahomes. Allen threw 48 times (28 completions for 287 yards with two TDs and one INT (QB rating of 80.8). Meanwhile, Mahomes was 29 of 38 for 325 yards with three Tds and zero INTs for a 127.6 QB rating. Mahomes is 7-2 as a starter in the playoffs, losing only to Tom Brady (against the Pats in the 2018 AFC championship game) and in last year's Super Bowl vs the Bucs. Allen has become a star but he's NO Brady. My closing note is this. In SEVEN home playoff games (6-1 / loss to Brady and the Pats), Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his passes, while averaging 310.3 YPG passing. He's thrown 20 TDs passes in those seven, against just ONE interception in 249 attempts. KC "all the way!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 4:30 ET. Zac Taylor arrived in Cincinnati for the 2019 season and the Bengals struggled to a 2-14 finish. Cincy then drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft but Burrow was lost in the 10th game of the season, as the Bengals would only slightly improve by going 4-11-1. However, the Bengals went 10-7 in 2021 and won the AFC North for the first time since 2015. Then last Saturday, Joe Burrow led his team to its first playoff victory in 31 years, 26-19 over Las Vegas in an AFC wild-card game. Burrow (24 of 34 with 244 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs for a QB rating of 110.4) led an efficient offense that scored on SIX drives. PK Evan McPherson became the first rookie to make four FGs without a miss in a postseason debut, and Germaine Pratt sealed it with a fourth-down interception in the dying seconds. It was a victory three decades in the making for the Bengals (last playoff win came back in 1990!) After going from worst to first in the AFC North with a generally young roster, the Bengals ended that embarrassingly long postseason drought that included EIGHT consecutive defeats. Mike Vrabel took over in Nashville in 2018 and after back-to-back 9-7 seasons, his Titans have now won the AFC South in two consecutive years, going 11-5 in 2020 and 12-5 here in 2021. Note, Tennessee's wild card team of 2019, made it all the way to the AFC championship game (1st time in 17 years!), before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions Chiefs. This year's team not only won the AFC South but also earned the AFC's overall No. 1 seed, giving them last weekend off. Burrow has had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs. RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase (also from LSU) caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus is joined by fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs) plus TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs). The Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons. The Titans were 6-2 when RB Derrick Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill (67.2% / 3,734 yards / 21-14 ratio) has had to shoulder more of the load, and he was often not up to the challenge. However, at 8-4, the Titans would win FOUR other their last five, including THREE straight to end the regular season, clinching the No. 1 seed. Kudos to Tannehill, who in that three-game winning streak, completed 73.4% of his passes with a 7-0 TD/INT ratio). WR Brown 63 catches / 13.8 YPC / 5 TDs) is the team's best receiver but Westbrook-Ikhine (38 / 5 TDs) and the now-healthy Juliuo Jones (31 / 14.0 YPC) are reliable targets. The Tennessee defense is stout, allowing 20.8 PPG (6th) and ranks second in the league in rushing yards allowed (84.8). Congrats to the Bengals but note they had just 308 total yards vs the Raiders and constantly settled for FGs. RB Mixon was held to 48 yards rushing on 2.8 YPC and the Tennessee rush D is a 'tough nut to crack' (see above). Henry could be back here and what a bonus that would be. However, I'm "all over" the Titans, either way. Consider the following. Both sides went 4-2 vs eventual playoff teams, but if we dig a little deeper, we see those records aren't equal. Both the Colts and Chargers were favored to win in Week 18, but they both lost. Tennessee would have been 6-2 against playoff teams if Tennessee and Los Angeles had won in the final week (and that's to go along with impressive victories over the Chiefs and Rams). If that scenario had played out, the Bengals would have been just 1-3 vs playoff destined teams. I noted the Tennessee D earlier but here's more. The Titans went from allowing 384 yards and 26.8 points a game during the first six weeks to only 300.3 yards and 17.5 points during the final 11 games, holding four of their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Tennessee went 7-2 SU at home and head coach Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU & ATS following a bye, beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points! Cincy is 'One & Done' this playoff season. Good luck...Larry |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -4 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 86 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 and through Week 13, stood at 10-2. However, the Cards would lose FOUR of their last five (lone exception was a 25-22 win at Dallas in Week 17 that clinched a playoff spot) to finish 11-6. That left them ONE game worse than the LA Rams, who captured the NFC West with a 12-5 record. The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. That sets the stage for Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. The Cardinals-Rams primetime showdown will be the third meeting between the teams, with the road team having won the previous two. The game will not only be Kyler Murray's playoff debut, but it will be the Cardinals' first appearance in the playoffs since 2015, when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round but were blown out by the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. As for the Rams, they are in the playoffs for the FOURTH time in Sean McVay's five seasons as head coach. This time around the Rams' QB is Matthew Stafford, who after 12 seasons with Detroit (where he put up monster numbers), will take the field looking to earn his first-ever playoff game (0-3 with the Lions!). Murray completed 68.2% for 3,787 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. He missed three games during the regular season and hasn't been quite the same in his return, with just five TD passes in five games, without a rushing TD (had five in his first nine games!). He has really missed WR Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), who last played on Dec 13 (still not available). Kirk (77 catches / 5 TDs) has had an excellent season and veteran AJ Green (54 catches / 15.7 TYPC / 3 TDs) has shown flashes of his earlier brilliance, but only at times. Rookie WR Moore has added a 'quiet' 54 catches (just 8.1 YPC) and TE Ertz (acquired from the Eagles in a trade during the season), has added 56 catches in his 11 games with the Cards. RB Conner has been hurt down the stretch but returned in Week 18 (52 yards and a TD), giving him 752 yards rushing on the season (just 3.7 YPC) but an impressive 15 TDs. His RB partner is Edmonds, who has run for 592 yards on 5.1 YPC. The Arizona defense has played well, holding opponents to 21.5 PPG (12th). Stafford has put up terrific numbers in his Detroit career but his move to LA was seen as a "get out of jail" opportunity. Stafford has put up excellent numbers again, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Cooper Kupp set a Rams-record 1,947 receiving yards, while he also pulled off the WR 'triple crown,' leading the NFL in receptions (145), TDs (16) and receiving yards. Veteran WR Woods (45 catches / 4 TDs) was lost during the regular season but Jefferson (a third-year pro) has 50 catches on 16.0 YPC with 5 TDs. TE Higbee has 61 catches with 5 TDs. RB Sony Michel has run for 845 yards (4.1 YPC / 4 TDs), averaging 99.4 YPG during the team's five-game winning streak and Cam Akers may be "ready to go!" The LA defense has not been as good as it's been in previous seasons but does check in allowing 21.9 PPG (1th). Not bad. Here's the rub. The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road and while the Cardinals may have been the best team in the NFL up until late October. They’ve gone downhill losing (1-4 finish) and Kyler Murray hasn’t regained his early season dominance. He greatly misses the dynamic Hopkins, out for the season with a knee injury plus Murray’s running skills have diminished. Remember, this is Murray's first playoff start and he's had just two multiple touchdown games since Week 7. Stafford's 0-3 in the playoffs all time, but that was THEN and this is NOW. Stafford has thrown five TDs to one INT in two games against the Cardinals this year. It's "now or never" for the veteran. I'm laying the points and I'm also expecting an "A-effort" by Aaron Donald and the LA defense. Good luck...Larry |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | Top | 15-31 | Loss | -118 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles opened the season 3-6 but then won SIX of seven to clinch a playoff spot, so their 51-26 loss at home to Dallas in Week 18 meant nothing. Coming off a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the 9-8 Eagles now set their sights on upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs on Sunday in Tampa. The 13-4 Bucs won the NFC South for the first time since 2007, behind their 'second-year' QB Tom Brady. Rumor has it that Brady previously played for the Patriots, achieving a certain level of success.
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET. The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills split their two regular season meetings (the visiting team won both games) and the two AFC East rivals are set for a rare third meeting (in the same season) on Saturday night in Orchard Park, NY. When's the last time the Pats and Bills squared off in a playoff game? If you guessed Dec 28, 1963, you win a lollipop. The then-Boston Patriots and the Buffalo Bills tied for the AFL's East Division title with records of 7-6-1 and met to decide which team would advance to the AFL championship game against the then-San Diego Chargers (11-3). The Pats dominated the Bills at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo and then went on to take on the Chargers at San Diego's Balboa Stadium. The Pats should have saved themselves the trip, as the Chargers won 51-10. Fullback Keith Lincoln rushed for 206 yards on 13 carries, led the team with 123 yards in receiving, and completed a pass for 20 yards. Other than that, he was a non-factor. One last tidbit. The Chargers' 1963 championship win remains the ONLY major sports title for the city of San Diego, the longest drought for a major American city! There is no doubt that the Bills are the better team on paper but the game is NOT played on paper. In fact, the weather report may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Pats and head coach Belichick, who isn't attending his 'first rodeo!' Consider the following. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 103 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Georgia at 8:00 ET. I'm not sure that most wanted to see Alabama and Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game at Indianapolis on January 11. Alabama took apart Georgia 41-24 in last month's SEC title game and the one-sided nature of the contest dulled excitement over a possible second meeting. However, after Alabama eased past Cincinnati 27-6 in its CFP semifinal and Georgia destroyed Michigan 34-11 in its semifinal, an all-SEC rematch is what's 'on the menu' Monday night. The Crimson Tide are defending champions and are looking for their FOURTH title in eight seasons under the CFP format. Coach Nick Saban has won SIX national titles at Alabama and seven overall. One of the CFP titles was a 26-23 overtime victory over Georgia in the 2017 championship contest. That came in Kirby Smart's second season at the helm, after his stint as Saban's defensive coordinator at Alabama. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET. A meeting of 9-7 AFC West rivals (the Chargers and Raiders) on SNF in the final game of the league's first 17-game regular season includes this kicker: the winner earns a spot in the NFL playoffs. The Chargers were 8-5 through 13 games but lost at home in OT to KC and then lost at Houston to the lowly Texans, 41-29, falling to 8-7. Los Angeles arrives in Las Vegas feeling pretty fortunate to be 9-7 (and still 'alive'), after beating the Broncos 34-13 in Week 17 at home. The Raiders were 5-2 coming off a Week 8 bye but then went in the 'tank,' losing FIVE of their next six games However, they closed with three consecutive victories, including a 23-20 nail-biter last week at favored Indianapolis on a last-second 33-yard FG. That sets the stage for the final regular season game of the 2021 season.
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01-09-22 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The Arizona Cardinals went into Dallas in Week 17 and won 25-22, clinching a playoff berth for the first time since 2015 (I had Arizona as my Game of the Month, just saying!). Arizona opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last 22-16 at home to the Colts in Week 16, had lost three in a row before last Sunday's win. The Cardinals can still win the NFC West title and earn a home playoff game, by beating the Seattle Seahawks. That is, if the 49ers can beat the Rams in LA. That's hardly far-fetched, as San Francisco has beaten Los Angeles FIVE straight times! As for the 6-10 Seahawks, they will finish with a losing record for the first time in the decade-long Russell Wilson/Bobby Wagner era. Seattle does come in off an outstanding effort, having snapped a two-game slide last weekend with a 51-29 victory over the visiting Detroit Lions. |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -1 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at *:15 ET. The 7-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers entered the weekend with the 11th-best record in the AFC, while the 7-8 Cleveland Browns (7-8) held the 12th position. In the AFC North, the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals were in the lead and the 8-7 Baltimore Ravens held second place. However, the Browns and Steelers were scheduled for MNF, AFTER the other 30 teams played 15 games on Sunday. Now, as the Browns and Steelers get set to square off tonight at Heinz Field, Sunday's results have led to this scenario. The Browns have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Steelers are still 'alive.' However, 'alive' means that to clinch a playoff berth the Steelers need to win tonight at home vs the Browns, then win next Sunday at Baltimore, PLUS they will need the Colts to lose at 2-14 Jacksonville next Sunday. Paraphrasing former President Bill Clinton, "It depends on what your definition of alive is?" The Browns arrive in Pittsburgh having lost THREE of four, including dropping their last two by TWO points (at home to the Raiders in Week 15 and at Green Bay in Week 16).The Steelers can 'feel Cleveland's pain,' as they get set to host their longtime rivals having gone 2-4-1 over their last seven games. "If you're a Browns fan, you're frustrated," defensive end Myles Garrett (career-best 15 sacks) said. "If you're a Browns player, you're frustrated. If you have anything to do with us, you know that. We've had chances, we just haven't converted or capitalized. I can't tell you how frustrated we are or I am." Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has come under fire for a subpar season in which he has 15 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions (his ratio was 26-8 last season). Mayfield was picked off FOUR times in the loss at Green Bay. Mayfield may be happy to be playing this game in the 'friendly confines' of Heinz Field, as he has been booed at home for the first time in his four-year NFL career. Mayfield's "opposite number" is 18-year veteran Ben Roethlisberger. The two-time Super Bowl champion is in the homestretch of his 18th season and 'rumor has it,' that this will likely be Big Ben's final regular season home game. Roethlisberger ranks fifth in NFL history with 63,721 passing yards and eighth with 416 passing TDs. The 'talk' all season has been that he has NOTHING left, but Mayfield can only 'dream' of matching Big Ben's numbers in 2021. Roethlisberger has completed 65.2% for 3,373 yards (over 500 more yards than Mayfield has thrown for) with 20 TDs and just 8 INTs. The Steelers beat the Browns 15-10 in Cleveland back on Oct 31, when they scored the game's final 12 points. Roethlisberger passed for 266 yards and the go-ahead TD. I really like Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, who became the first Browns head coach since Romeo Crennel in 2007 to lead the franchise to a winning season, going 11-5 in his very first year with the Browns (2020). last seasonStefanski led the Browns to a 11–5 record, finishing third in the AFC North and clinching the Browns' first playoff berth since 2002. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers (at Pittsburgh) in a wild card game. This is a bitter rivalry and the Browns would 'LOVE' nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's chance at making the playoffs but Mike Tomlin, who arrived in Pittsburgh back 2007, has built quite a resume in his time with the Steelers. As the saying goes, "this isn't his first rodeo," while the same can be said regarding Big Ben. Steelers stay 'alive' and head to Baltimore with the hope of beating the Ravens, while 'rooting' for the Jags at home vs the Colts. First things, FIRST. Take the Steelers. Good luck...Larry |
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01-02-22 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET. The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last Saturday 22-16 at home to the Colts (the team's third straight loss), the Cards check in at 10-5, giving them just the fifth-best record in the NFC. The Cards welcome the Cowboys to the desert, a team that has won FOUR in a row after crushing Washington 56-14 last Sunday night. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and at 11-4, own tiebreakers over both the 11-4 Rams and Bucs, giving them the No. 2 seed behind only the 12-3 Packers.
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs were 3-4 through seven games this season and the refrain was, "What's wrong with the Chiefs?" No one is asking that question now, as KC comes to Cincinnati on an 8-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), having clinched the AFC West for SIXTH consecutive years. The 11-4 Chiefs hold a one-game advantage over 10-5 Tennessee in the chase for the first-round bye and home field advantage that goes to the top seed. However, a real challenge awaits against the 9-6 Bengals, who only need one win to clinch their first AFC North title since 2015. QB Joe Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 yards passing in a rout of Baltimore in Week 16, completing 37 of 46 with four TDs. It's been quite a bounce-back season for Burrow and the Bengals, as Cincy went just 4-11-1 in Burrow's rookie season (he played just 10 games before being lost for the rest of the season to injry). However, the former No. 1 overall pick hasn't missed a game this season, completing 69.9% for 4,165 yards with 30 TDs and 14 INTs. WR Tee Higgins has been surging, posting 583 yards receiving in the last five games. Both Higgins (71 catches / 6 TDs) and rookie Ja'Marr Chase (68 catches / 10 TDs) have more than 1,000 receiving yards on the season. A third WR, Boyd, has 63 catches with 4 TDs and TE Uzomah adds 45 catches and 5 TDs. RB Joe Mixon ranks second among NFL rushers with 1,159 yards (has 13 rushing TDs plus adds 3 more on 35 catches). Speaking of defenses, Cincy's has allowed just 21.6 PPG (13th) this season, after allowing an average of 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons. |
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01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens +6.5 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. What a difference a month can make. The Rams sat 7-1 at the close of October but would go 0-3 in November (had a bye week) and at 7-4, expected their only chance at a playoff berth was as a wild card. However, LA ripped off FOUR straight wins (while the Cards have imploded) and at 11-4, now own a one-game lead in the NFC West with two games to go and have already clinched at least a wild card berth. As for LA's Week 17 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens were 8-3 through Week 12 but welcomed the Rams to Baltimore on a four-game losing streak that dropped them to 8-7. The Ravens are currently one of FOUR, 8-7 AFC teams looking to secure the last wild card spot (Dolphins currently own the tiebreakers with two games left).
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -114 | 39 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 8:45 ET. The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to a 10-2 record, as the Rebels get set to face 11-2 Baylor, which won the Big 12 championship with a 21-16 victory over Oklahoma St. Without a doubt, this contest is one of the more intriguing New Year's Day Six bowls. Ole Miss entered its season finale (The Egg Bowl vs Miss St) with 9-2 record. The program had produced SEVEN career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. The Rebels' 31-21 over the Bulldogs gave them their first-ever 10-win regular season and with a Sugar Bowl win, would have the school's first-ever 11-win season. Baylor hired Dave Aranda, LSU's DC who helped the Tigers complete one of the best-ever, single-seasons in CFB history in 2019. LSU went 15-0 in 2019 and while Joe Burrow and the offense (48.4 PPG) got most of the accolades, Aranda's defense held opponents to just 21.9 PPG. His first season at Baylor suffered because of COVID (like many programs), as the Bears would finish 2-7. However, it was a 'New Day' in 2021 for Baylor which earned a trip to the Big 12 championship game where it held on to beat Oklahoma St, 21-16. It marked Baylor's third Big 12 title but first-ever by capturing a win in the championship game. Baylor averages 32.5 PPG with a VERY balanced attack, as the Bears have averaged 216.0 YPG passing and 214.9 YPG on the ground. QB Bohannon is solid, completing 64.3% for 2,160 yards with 17 TDs and 6 INTs. He has added 303 yards, adding 9 more scores. RB Smith (1,429 yards on 6.2 YPC with 12 TDs) is a stud, plus fellow RB Ebner has 763 yards on 5.4 YPC with 2 TDs. The team's top WR is Thornton (61 catches / 15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) plus TE Sims has 31 catches with 6 TDs. Defense is an Aranda staple and Baylor enters having allowed 19.2 PPG. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral announced before the Egg Bowl that he would enter the 2022 NFL Draft but he decided to play for the Rebels in this game, first (so many have opted out in similar situations). It's an understatement that Kiffin was thrilled and so was OC Jeff Lebby, who is headed to Oklahoma after this game. The two will have a chance to produce the kind of numbers the Rebels did in the regular season, ranking fourth in total offense at 506.7 YPG (35.9 PPG). Like Baylor, Ole Miss has great balance, passing for 281.9 YPG and rushing for 224.7 YPG. Corral has completed 68.4% for 3,339 yards with 20 TDs and 4 INTs, plus has run for 597 yards and 11 TDs. He is just one of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores. RB Ealy has 703 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and Conner has 605 yards (5.1 YPC plus 13 TDs. Ole Miss is the nation's ONLY offense with four rushers with at least 500 yards, as Parrish has 542 yards. WR Drummond (67 catches with 8 TDs) is the team's No. 1 receiving threat, but Corral has plenty of other options (targets). How about this? Ole Miss is also the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! The defense is allowing 25.0 PPG but that's down from the 38.3 PPG Kiffin's Rebels allowed in his first in Oxford last year. Kudos to Aranda and this Baylor team but Ole Miss is 'playing in its backyard' here in the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss is 12-2 in its last 14 bowl games dating back to the 1992 Liberty Bowl and 10-4 in bowls against current Big 12 members. The play is Ole Miss. "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State -4 | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Rose Bowl play is on Ohio St at 5:00 ET. "The Granddaddy of them All" gets a terrific matchup in No. 6 Ohio St (1-2) playing No. 11 Utah (10-3). Ohio State had aspirations of playing for the national championship and will be 'on a mission' to make up for its 'disaster' against Michigan back on Nov 27, while Utah is playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time since joining the Pac-12 for the 2011 season.
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma St at 1:00 ET. The 51st Fiesta Bowl is a meeting of two teams that have never faced each other in football, when No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 9 Oklahoma State play on New Year's Day at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. Notre Dame just missed making the final four of the College Football Playoff, while Oklahoma State fell short by just inches thanks to a touchdown-saving tackle from Baylor that, if not made, would have won the Big-12 Championship Game for the Cowboys and given them a strong case for the playoff. That set-up gives the Fiesta Bowl a terrific matchup between two schools with something to prove. On the coaching front, OSU's Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has now led Okie St to 16 straight bowl appearances (more in a bit). As for Notre Dame, the ever-classy Brian Kelly jumped ship at Notre Dame for LSU, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to be coached by first-time head coach Marcus Freeman.
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Georgia at 7:30 ET. Friday night's Orange Bowl clash between No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia is the very definition of a Marquee Classic. The only 'bigger' matchup we would have this season would be a national championship showdown featuring No. 1 Alabama vs the winner of this game. That seems likely, as the Crimson Tide are two-TD favorites over Cincinnati but then again...
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Cotton Bowl Showdown is on Cincinnati at 3:30 ET. The 12-1 Crimson Tide (12-1) are coming off an impressive 41-24 over Georgia in the SEC championship game and are the No. 1 seed in this year's College Football Playoffs. This is 'old hat' for Alabama, as the Tide are making their SEVENTH appearance in the eight years that the current title-deciding format has been in place. Waiting for them in the Cotton Bowl (played at Arlington, Tx) will be 13-0 Cincinnati. The No. 4 Bearcats are the first non-Power 5 conference program to be selected for the College Football Playoff, breaking that proverbial 'glass ceiling.' Alabama "won it all" last season (52-24 over Ohio St) plus won the national title during the CFP era in 2015 and 2017, while taking a loss in the 2016 and 2018 title games. "There's a reason they've been in the playoffs seven out of the eight years," Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said of Alabama. "This is not just a top-five program; this is THE top program." No doubt that it is a formidable challenge for Cincinnati, but the first step is overcoming the Alabama mystique. "Our players know who they're playing," Fickell said. "They know what (Alabama) is all about, what that program is all about. Now we have to try to find ways to humanize them and bring ourselves back into doing what we need to do. The reality is we're not the best team, probably. But that doesn't really matter, because on the 31st, it's really going to be about who is going to play the best." I think Fickell (did he really turn down the ND job?) has it "just right! The Bearcats will rely on the nation's second-best pass defense (168.3 YPG) to contain Heisman Trophy-winning Alabama QB Bryce Young. Overall, the Cincy defense allows just 16.1 PPG (5th) on 304.9 YPG (8th). The offense is led by QB Ridder, who has completed 65.9% for 3,190 yards with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs (in 355 attempts). He's a dangerous runner, who has gained 371 yards with 6 TDs. RB Ford (an Alabama transfer in 2019) is outstanding, gaining 1,242 yards on 6.2 YPC with 19 TDs. WR Pierce leads with 50 catches (167.3 YPC / 8 TDs) and is joined by WR Scott (26 / 18.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and TE Whyle (25 / 6 TDs). Bottom line, the Bearcats have averaged 39.2 PPG to rank 8th in scoring. The Heisman-winning Young has completed 68.0% for 4,322 yards with 43 TDs and just 4 INTs in 462 attempts. He was the Heisman favorite going into the SEC championship game but 'nailed it down' by passing for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. John Metchie III (96 catches with 8 TDs) was one of two 1,000 yard receivers on the team (Jameson Williams is the other with 68 catches on 21.3 YPC with 15 TDs), but he's out with injury. RB Brian Robinson Jr. (1,071 yards on 4.8 YPC and 14 TDs) will be tested by going up against a Cincinnati defense that allowed just 3.3 YPC. The Alabama offense averages 42.5 PPG and while its defense has had some so-so efforts during the season, the unit enters this game allowing 20.2 PPG (20th) on 304.6 YPG (7th). The team stats are pretty similar but of course, Alabama has done it while playing in the SEC, compared to Cincy, which plays in the ACC. I agree that it's hard to see the Bearcats winning this game outright but taking two TDs allows plenty of room for error. The Cincinnati defense has 18 picks (third in the nation in the regular season) and 37 sacks (tied for 19th). Overall, Cincinnati has forced 33 turnovers on the season. Does this tid-bit matter? The Crimson Tide are 5-1 in national semifinals, with the loss coming in the inaugural CFP in 2014. That 42-35 setback came against Ohio State, which had Fickell as its co-defensive coordinator. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6.5 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Music City Bowl play is on Tennessee at 3:00 ET. The 8-4 Purdue Boilermakers and the 7-5 Tennessee Volunteers meet in Thursday's Music City Bowl from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. It sets up as a clash of styles, as Tennessee's up-tempo offense goes up against Purdue's defense. The Purdue defense has lost George Karlaftis and on offense, WR David Bell, who caught 93 passes this season with 6 TDs. The Vols lost RB Evans to the transfer portal (headed to Louisville) but his absence in no way compares with Bell's loss for Purdue. Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and went 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee. Heupel (an outstanding QB for Oklahoma) has helped Hendon Hooker develop into a true dual-threat QB. He took over as the starter Sep 18 and went 6-4 as a starter throwing 24 TD passes with only two interceptions. His season stats are 69.0% for 2,567 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs plus ran for 561 yards with 5 TDs. His running, along with Small (612 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Evans (525 yards / 6.5 YPC / 6 TDs) give the Vols an average of 211.6 YPG (20th). Tennessee averages 247.1 YPG giving it great balance and average 38.8 PPG (39th). Two WRs have 50-plus catches in Tillman (57 / 16.3 YPC / 9 TDs) and Jones (52 / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs). More in a bit. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, the Boilermakers have won eight games this season, including wins over then-No. 2 Iowa (24-7) and then-No.3 Michigan St (40-29). Fifth-year senior QB Aidan O'Connell led the Big Ten completing 73.5% of his passes and has completed 74% or better in SEVEN straight games. He enters this game with 3,178 passing yards (23 TDs / 8 INTs) but as noted, will not have WR Bell here. That;s BIG deal, especially when one notes that Purdue's running game is basically non-existent, averaging 84.2 YPG (127th). The Purdue defense allows just 20.5 PPG (22nd), a full SEVEN points less than Tennessee's. Let me start with Purdue. The program has been known as a 'giant killer' and as noted above, produced wins over Iowa and Mich St in 2021. What's more, QB O'Connell was at his best against top competition, averaging 433.7 yards, completing 75.3% of his passes and throwing nine TDs with no interceptions in games against Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. However, Tennessee is hardly a 'big fish,' but rather a team in search of an eighth win. That said, head coach Josh Heupel can become just the sixth Volunteers' coach all-time to win eight or more games in his debut season. Getting back to QB Hooker, he has climbed UT’s record book, but in a steady way that matches his even-keeled personality. Hooker is first in completion percentage (69%) and passing efficiency (182.16), sixth in total offense (3,128 yards), seventh in TD passes (26) and 12th in passing yards (2,567) in a single season in UT history despite starting only 10 games. His method involves consistency and poise. His 182.15 passer rating led the SEC and ranked third nationally. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 11 straight games, tied for the fourth-longest streak in school history. With due respect to O'Connell, I think Hooker gives Tennessee the edge at QB and it's no small matter that this game is being contested in Nashville. The Volunteers not only score fast, they have outscored opponents 169-44 in the first quarter this season. I'd love a repeat of that here! Tennessee has won FOUR straight bowl games, all against Big Ten opponents, and is 11-5 all-time against Big Ten teams in bowls. Here's what I wrote when taking Tennessee over Kentucky back on Nov 6. "The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here at Kentucky and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game." The Vols beat Kentucky that day 45-42, lost to Georgia (no surprise) but beat South Alabama and Vandy. Now, to complete my earlier "prediction," the Vols need to win and of course, cover! That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on Oklahoma at 9:15 ET. The 10-3 Oregon Ducks and the 10-2 Oklahoma Sooners meet Wednesday in The Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Ducks are hoping to reach 11 wins for the EIGHTH time in school history, while the Oklahoma Sooners look for an 11-win season for the SEVENTH time in the last nine years. Both schools will be playing under an interim head coach, as Oregon's Mario Cristabol left Eugene for "South Beach" (Miami-Fl) and Lincoln Kennedy left Norman for the "Bright Lights of Hollywood" (USC). Assistant coach Bryan McClendon will coach the Ducks while the Sooners have decided that former head coach Bob Stoops, is the right man for this "ONE-game" coaching opportunity. |
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12-29-21 | Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 54-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Pinstripe Bowl play is on Maryland at 2:15 ET. The 6-6 Maryland Terrapins and the 6-6 Virginia Tech Hokies meet Wednesday in the Pinstripe Bowl from Yankee Stadium. Maryland opened 4-0 but needed to win its final game of the season (40-16 over Rutgers) to get its sixth win. Va Tech opened the season with a 17-10 home upset of preseason No. 10 North Carolina and was 3-1 but then lost FOUR of its next five games.Like Maryland, the Hokites needed a win in their final game to become bowl eligible. The Hokies did just that, beating in-state rival Virginia 29-24 on the road. It was an emotional win for Va Tech, which had fired head coach Justin Fuente after a 5-5 start. J.C. Price was named interim head coach and will coach the Hokies again in this one. |
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12-28-21 | Texas Tech v. Mississippi State -9.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Liberty Bowl play is on Miss St at 6:45 ET. The 6-6 Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the 7-5 Mississippi St Bulldogs Tuesday in the Liberty Bowl. Matt Wells is in his third season with Tech, after leading Utah St to bowls in FIVE of his six years with the Aggies. However, his Texas Tech teams went 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons, before becoming bowl eligible in 2021 at 6-6. Mike Leach is the head coach at Miss St but knows Texas Tech VERY well. He was hired in 2000 and fired in 2009, amid allegations of abusing players (I'll leave that alone). What he did do was WIN, taking the Red Raiders to bowls in each of his 10 seasons in Lubbock. He was hired at Washington St in 2012 and after a 3-9 first season, led the Cougars to bowls in SIX of the next seven seasons. He moved on to Texas Tech in 2020 and went 3-7 amid COVID but got a bowl invite, anyway, eking out a 28-26 win over Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl. This year's team became bowl-eligible the old-fashioned way, winning seven games. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun was hired in Dec 2006 to take over for the retiring Fisher DeBerry, who in 23 seasons led the Falcons to 12 bowls (12 in his 1st 19 years, before falling off his final four). Calhoun "never missed a beat,' leading Air Force to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. Back-to-back 5-7 seasons followed in 2017 and '18 before an 11-2 season in 2019. COVID pretty much wiped out the school's 2020 season (3-3) but this year's team is 9-3 as it gets set to meet Louisville in the First Responder Bowl, played in Dallas at Gerald R Ford Stadium (SMU's home field). Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield was at Appalachian St when it moved up to FBS status in 2014 and went 7-5 that first season. He then led App St to four straight bowl appearances, winning the first three, before resigning before the New Orleans Bowl in 2018 to take the Louisville job. The Cardinals went 8-5 in 2019 (won the Music City Bowl over Miss St) but fell to 4-7 in 2020. The 2021 season was an up-and-down one but at 6-6, the Cards are back to being bowl eligible. The Cardinals' offense revolves around dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham, who has completed 62.0% for 2,734 yards with 18 TDs and 6 INTs. He has also run for 968 yards on 6.0 YPC with 19 TDs. He has been responsible for 37 scores and is the ONLY player in the nation who has both rushed and passed for more than 15 TDs. RB Mitchell adds 722 yards on 4.7 YPC (5 TDs), as Louisville averages 211.8 YPG (19th). That would be an impressive stat, but Air Force runs for 341.5 YPG, tops in the nation. QB Daniels has thrown for only 932 yards (5 TDs / 3 INTs) but is the team's second-leading rusher with 698 yards on 5.0 YPC with 9 TDs. Brad Roberts paces Air Force's rushing attack with 1,279 yards (4.6 YPC) and 13 TDs. Three more RBs chip in between 360 and 471 yards, averaging 6.1, 7.7 and 8.6 YPC. Moving to the defensive side of the ball, Louisville allows 27.0 PPG on 402.5 YPG. In stark contrast, Air Force has allowed 19.1 PPG (13th) on 288.8 YPG (5th). Louisville has faced EIGHT bowl-bound teams this season, going just 2-6, while allowing 33.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the 9-3 Falcons came pretty close to going 12-0 and playing for the Mountain West Conference title. Their three losses were all one-possession defeats, by a total of 17 points. Trends favoring Air Force are Louisville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-field contests, while Air Force is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games. Air Force's HIGHLY underappreciated defense and its relentless ground attack (which will keep Cunningham on the sidelines) will be too much for Louisville to handle. Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-21 | Bills +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The Buffalo (8-6) came up short in a 14-10 loss to New England on a snowy and windy night on Dec 6 at Orchard Park, NY but following the Bills' 31-14 win over Carolina, and New England's 27-17 loss at Indianapolis last weekend (that snapped a 7-0 run SU & ATS by the Pats), the AFC East division is back in play this Sunday. A Buffalo win over the 9-5 Patriots would return the Bills to the top of the AFC East standings entering the final two weeks of the regular season, as a victory would give Buffalo a superior division record over New England. As for the Pats, they will be looking to bounce back from their first loss in over two months (see above). The post-bye week loss dropped the Patriots to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind the Kansas City Chiefs, and then they dropped to No. 3 Thursday night after the Tennessee Titans defeated the San Francisco 49ers to move to 10-5. The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth through a few different outcomes this weekend, but more importantly, they can lock up the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss on Monday night.
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cards at 8:15 ET. The Indianapolis Colts opened the season 0-3 and 1-4, before winning SEVEN of their last nine (56-3 ATS) to climb back into playoff contention at 8-6. However, the Colts got some bad news on Thursday when the Titans kicked a 44-yard field goal with FOUR seconds remaining to rally from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the 49ers 20-17. The 10-5 Titans are now a win or a Colts' loss away from clinching their second straight AFC South title. At this moment, the Colts are one FIVE teams at 8-6. The Bengals would currently win the AFC North but the Colts (thru tiebreakers), currently hold down the AFC's No. 5 seed.
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET. The SF 49ers lost 31-17 at home to Arizona on Nov 7 but they have rebounded to win FIVE of their last six to reach 8-6. San Francisco currently owns the sixth-best record in the NFC, as the 49ers head to Tennessee on Thursday night. The Titans lost their Week 1 game at home to Arizona but then won EIGHT of nine. That said, the Titans 'limp' into this contest having lost THREE of four (lone win came 20-0 over the hapless Jags) but at 9-5, still lead the AFC South by one game over the Colts. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Frisco Bowl-Part 2 is on North Texas at 3:30 ET. Thursday's inaugural Frisco Football Classic was created after the regular season to help accommodate a game for every eligible team. Both the Texas Mean Green and the Miami-Ohio RedHawks finished their regular campaigns with 6-6 records with North Texas dominating previously unbeaten No. 15 UTSA at home on Nov. 27 to become bowl-eligible.
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12-21-21 | San Diego State +2.5 v. UTSA | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Frisco Bowl play is on San Diego St at 7:30 ET. UTSA (12-1) of Conference USA is in just its 10th season as an FBS program and is looking for its initial bowl victory. The school also has a chance to notch a rare 13th victory. The Roadrunners' opponent in the Frisco Bowl is San Diego State (11-2) of the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are looking to win 12 games for the first time in the school's Division I history (school has had 11-win seasons) in 1969, 2015 and 2016.
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET. The 6-7 Minnesota Vikings will look to bolster their chances of making the playoffs when they visit the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Minnesota is among a crowded group of NFC teams that are chasing potential wild-card berths. The Vikings are coming off a 36-28 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and have THREE wins in their last five games. The Vikings will move up to the No. 7 spot if they beat the Bears on Monday night and they'll stay there if Washington loses Tuesday to the Eagles. The homestanding Chicago Bears enter the contest 4-9 and just looking for a bright spot in what has been a dreary season. The Bears have SEVEN of theri last eight. Rookie QB Justin Fields has offered glimpses of his potential but he also has endured growing pains in his first season out of Ohio State. There are NO 'growing pains' for Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins, who is completing 66.9% for 3,569 yards with 27 TDs and 5 INTs (103.5 rating). RB Cook returned in Week 14 to run for 205 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh. He needs only 22 rushing yards to reach the 1,000-yard milestone for the third season in a row. He is averaging 119.7 yards from scrimmage (97.8 rushing, 21.9 receiving) in 10 games this season. WR Justin Jefferson (2,688) needs 68 receiving yards for the most in NFL history in a player's first two seasons in the Super Bowl era. He has 85 catches (15.2 YPC) and 8 TDs. WR Thielen has 64 catches and 10TDs but missed last week (he's questionable here). The Vikings average 26.5 PPG (9th) but allow 25.6 PPG (25th). I referred to Fields earlier and he enters (in 11 games) completing just 57.6% for 1,585 with 6 TDs and 10 INTs. He did pass frpo 224 yards with two TDs plus ran for 74 more yards last week vs Green Bay but also threw two INTs. Chicago led the Packers 27-21 at the half but got outscored 24-3 in the second half. That game kind of sums up Chicago's 4-9 season. RB Montgomery has 608 yards on 4.2 YPC with 4 TDs and the Chicago receiving corps is very mediocre. The Bears average only 17.8 PPG (28th) and allow 25.5 PPG (24th). There every reason to think Minnesota should win this game but I'm guessing MOST thought that the Bucs(at home) would beat the Saints! Final Score: Saints 9 Bucs 0! The Vikings nearly blew a 29-0 lead last week, hanging on by forcing an incomplete pass in the end zone on the final play. Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent this season, so how can one trust them? Note that the Bears have won FIVE of the last six meetings between these two "Black & Blue" division rivals. Want more? Cousins enter the NFL in 2012 and in his career with Washington and Minnesota, owns an 0-9 record on MNF. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the Cin Bengals at 4:05 ET. Cincy QB Joe Burrow was limited to 10 games as a rookie and the Bengals finished 4-11-1. It was the franchise's 5th consecutive losing season, after being a playoff team, in SIX of seven seasons between 2009-15. The Broncos would go 5-11 in 2020, the team's FIFTH consecutive losing season as well, after winning the team's third Super Bowl ring in the 2015 season. The Bengals were 7-4 after a 41-10 Week 12 win over Pittsburgh but then dropped the last two games (BOTH at home), 41-22 to the Chargers and 26-23 in OT vs the 49ers. The Broncos surprised most (all?) by opening 3-0, but promptly lost FOUR in a row. However, Denver has recovered to win FOUR of its last six and now matches the Bengals at 7-6. The Bengals are still right in the AFC North race (Ravens lead at just 8-4) but the Broncos are hardly a threat in the AFC West, as the Chiefs are 9-4, after winning FOUR in a row. That said, BOTH are in a jam-packed race for one of three AFC wild card spots. Burrow comes in completing 68.8% for 3,483 yards with 25 TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 100.6). RB Mixon is having a creer season, rushing for 1,038 yards and 12 TDs, plus has 28 catches for two more scores. LSU rookie WR Chase (No. 5 overall pick) leads with 60 catches (17.3 YPC / 10 TDs) and Higgins is up to 57 catches (14.2 YPC / 4 TDs), having caught 20 pases the last three games, after missing two games. The third WR is Boyd (55 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Uzomah has 37 catches and 5 TDs. Cincy allows 22.5 PPG (17th) but note that's an improvement over the last seasons, when the Bengals allowed an average of 27.1 PPG. Denver QB Bridgewater flies under the radar, completing 67.6 % for 2,954 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. His WR group can't match Burrow's, with Sutton (48 catches / 2 TDs) and Patrick (42 catches / 4 TDs). However, TE Fant leads the team with 53 catches. Denver has two RBs with over 700 yards rushing, Williams (743 / 4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and Gordon (716 / 4.8 / 7 TDs), which gives Denver an edge in that department. The Broncos also own the edge defensively, allowing 17.5 PPG, 2nd-best in the entire NFL. Two fumbled punts by Cincinnati returner Darius Phillips led to 10 first-half points for the 49ers last Sunday. A taunting call against Bengals safety Vonn Bell extended the second of those Niners drives, which ended in a 14-yard TD pass from Garoppolo to Kittle that gave San Francisco a 17-6 halftime lead. However, Burrow showed how much he's grown this season by leading two late 4th-quarter drives, both ending with a TD pass to Chase. The Bengals took the lead in OT with a FG but lost on a San Francisco TD. As for Denver, after pregame tributes to WR Thomas, the Broncos, notorious slow starters, scored TDs on their first two drives. The first quarter ended with the Broncos holding a 14-0 lead, an 11-0 advantage in FDs and a yardage disparity of 135 to minus-1. The final was 38-10, as the Lions fell to 1-11-1 on the season. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner here would own the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, although with some many teams in the mix, other tiebreakers may decide things. However, as I noted at the top, the Bengals still have a real shot at winning the division. After two back-to-back home losses, getting a road game, where the Bengals are 4-2, is NOT a bad thing. In the end, I also like Burrow over Bridgeater in 'crunch time.' That said, I don't expect there to be 'crunch time,' as the Bengals win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. The 9-5 Tennessee Titans entered Week 15 in a three-way tie atop the AFC standings with four games remaining. They are battling the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs for the conference's top seed and only postseason bye. However, the Chiefs got an early start to the week winning in LA over the Chargers on Thursday, moving to 10-4. The Pats play Saturday at Indy, so the Titans could take the field needing to win to keep pace with those teams. Are the Titans really rooting for AFC South rival Indy to beat the Colts? Heading into Week 15, the 8-6 Colts are still within striking distance of the Titans (two back with four to go). As for the Steelers, they are just 6-6-1 and in last place in the AFC North. However, the division is still "up for grabs," as the Ravens lead at 8-5, with the Bengals and Browns at 7-6. QB Ben Roethlisberger still believes the Pittsburgh Steelers have what it takes to be a playoff team. However, time is running out to prove it. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Bowl Opener (LA Bowl) is on Oregon St at 7:30 ET. Anyone ever think there would be a Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl? Well there is and the 7-5 Oregon St Beavers of the Pac 12 will take on the 10-3 Utah St Aggies, the newly crowned champions of the MWC, after they impressively beat San Diego St 46-13 in the MWC championship game back on Dec 4.
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft and in his first two seasons, the Cards went 5-10-1 and 8-8. However, he and his team opened the current season 7-0 before losing to Green Bay in Week 8. More bad news followed, as Murray was sidelined with an ankle in Weeks 9-11, although the Cards were able to go 2-1. Week 12 brought a bye and Murray returned in Week 13 in a 33-22 win at Chicago (two TD passses / 2 rushing TDs). The 10-2 Cardinals can essentially put the NFC West out of reach with a victory, which would be their second over the 8-4 Rams this season. Each team has four games remaining after Monday. |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 4:25 ET. The Buffalo Bills were 13-3 last season and played in the AFC championship game. Along with KC, they came into the season as one of the favorites to be in that AFC title game again, but the Bills are just 7-5 as they visit Raymond James Stadium Sunday afternoon to face the 9-3 Bucs, the defending Super Bowl champs. After losing at home 14-10 to the Pats last Monday, the 7-5 Bills trail the 9-4 Pats in the AFC East. New England is on its bye in Week 14, so a win moves the Bills to 8-5 and ONE game back, but a loss drops them to 7-6, TWO games back. That's a BIG difference with just four games remaining. Meanwhile, the Bucs can clinch the NFC South title with a victory over Buffalo and a loss or tie by both the New Orleans Saints (5-7) and Carolina Panthers (5-7). The Saints visit the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday, while the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7).
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12-12-21 | Cowboys -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show |
My NFL 10* ONE & ONLY Game of the Year is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET. Jason Garrett was given MORE than enough time as the Cowboys' head coach but finally Jerry said "enough was enough" Mike McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl with Green Bay, was hired in 2020 and executions were high. It was a tough season with COVID for all teams but Dallas' season looked over when Dak Prescott was lost in Week 5 to season-ending injury. At 2-3, Dallas would lose FOUR in a row and six of seven. However, at 3-9, a three-game winning streak actually gave them a chance at the division title (at 6-9), entering Week 17. The Cowboys lost and finished at 6-10. The 'winner' of the NFC 'Least' last season was Washington, led by Ron Rivera (former Carolina head coach who led the Panthers to a 15-1 record in 2016 and into the Super Bowl, where the Panthers lost to the Broncos), despite only a 7-9 record. The Washington defense gelled at the end of 2020, allowing just 15.9 PPG in winning FIVE of its last seven. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion try by the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and with their 20-19 win, have turned the AFC North into a real 'horse race!' The Ravens stand at 8-4, while Cincy is at 7-5, after a crushing home loss to the Chargers. The Steelers are presently 6-5-1, plus the 6-6 Browns were idle last week. First-to-last is separated by just two games. Just as notable, Pittsburgh is just a half-game behind three 7-5 teams for one of three wild card berths. That makes this Thursday night visit to Minnesota, to say the least, VERY important.
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* NFC West Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The Seattle Seahawks find themselves in an unfamiliar position entering December. In the 10 seasons since the Seattle Seahawks drafted QB Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft, the franchise has been a regular contender, making the playoffs in EIGHT of the nine seasons prior to 2021 (played in two Super Bowls, winning one). However, when the 3-8 Seahawks play host to the 6-5 49ers on Sunday, they are little more than an also-ran with little to play for over the season's final six weeks. Conversely, the 49ers have won THREE in a row (while averaging 31.6 PPG) and currently own the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.
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12-05-21 | Ravens -4 v. Steelers | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -112 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 4:25 ET. The 8-3 Baltimore Ravens lead the AFC North but have not been able to 'shake the 7-4 Bengals. The 6-6 Browns and 5-5-1 Steelers fill out the rest of the division. The Steelers looked like a contender at 5-3 but they welcome the hated-Ravens to Heinz Field on an 0-2-1 run. This is the first meeting between the two rivals in 2021, with the teams playing again at Baltimore in Week 18. The Ravens enter December with the best record in the AFC, but their recent performances have been anything but pretty. Baltimore heads into the weekend a half-game ahead of the Patriots and Titans (both 8-4) for the top spot in the conference and. The playoff structure is the same as last season, meaning only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round playoff bye, so the Ravens certainly cannot afford many slip-ups over their final six games. QB Lamar Jackson (64.2% for 2,612 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs) is NOT having a vintage season, evidenced by him throwing a career-high four interceptions Sunday night in a 16-10 win over the Cleveland Browns. He also threw for a season-low 165 yards and was sacked multiple times for the ninth time in 10 games. However, he does lead the team in rushing (707 yards on 5.7 YPC) and is the reason the Ravens are No. 2 in the NFL averaging 150.7 YPG on the ground. His top receivers are WR Brown (60 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews ( 60 catches / 5 TDs). The defense is no longer a dominating unit (ala the Ray Lewis years) but Baltimore does rank 9th in allowing 21.8 PPG. Big Ben is not the QB he once was but he can still be dangerous. He enters the game completing 64.6% for 2,522 yards with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 87.1 YPG (28th), although rookie RB Harris does have 708 yards with 5 TDs but averages only 3.6 YPC. He is also Pitt's second-leading receiver (52 catches / 2 TDs), behind WR Johnson (68 catches / 4 tDs). WR Claypool adds 37 catches (16.4 YPC / but just 1 TD) and TE Freiermuth adds 40 catches and a team-high 6 TDs.The offense averages only 20.4 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 24.3 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Pittsburgh is also just 29th in takeaways with only NINE. The Ravens have averaged only 14 points over the last three games but have won two of them, while Pittsburgh's last three games have seen them tie Detroit 16-16 (Lions are 0-10-1 on the season), while allowing 41 points in back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Bengals. Jackson is a highly accomplished QB and this Pittsburgh defense may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Baltimore offense to shake its doldrums! The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against AFC North opponents, while the Steelers are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 following a SU loss. I'm on the road favorite. Good luck...Larry |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET. Washington was able to capture the NFC 'Least' last season with a 7-9 record but with Dallas jumping out to a 6-1 start and Washington opening 2-6, the Cowboys seemed like a 'lock' to win the NFC East in 2021. However, Dallas has lost THREE of four to fall back to 7-4, while Washington has won THREE in a row to reach 5-6. Washington looks to make it FOUR straight wins this week in Las Vegas against the Raiders, who are one of three AFC West teams that are currently 6-5. Kansas City, which has won FIVE straight division titles, leads the AFC West at 7-4, so clearly, that division is far from settled. Speaking of Dallas, the Raiders snapped a three-game skid by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 36-33 in overtime on Thanksgiving. All that said, this marks the ONLY home game for the Raiders in a 4-week span and don't forget, it's an extremely bad situational spot for Washington, traveling cross-country on a short week. With FIVE consecutive NFC games coming up to end the regular season, this seems like a perfect "let-down" spot for Washington. This really is a "must win'' for the Raiders as the 6-5 Chargers are on the road vs a very good Cincy team, plus 6-5 Denver is at 7-4 KC. The Raiders really need to get to 7-5 with a "W" in this one. A win basically means a cover at this pointspread but my bet says the Raiders win handily. Good luck...Larry |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle of the QBs" is on the lA Chargers at 1:00 ET. The 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals are positioned to make some noise in December, as except for the 8-3 Baltimore Ravens, every AFC team has at least four losses, with 12 at .500 or better. One of those 12 teams at .500 or better is the 6-5 LA Chargers, who remain in the playoff mix despite losing FOUR of their last six games. Baltimore leads the AFC North at 8-3, Cincy checks in at 7-4, the Browns at 6-5 and the Steelers at 5-5-1. Over in the AFC West, KC is 7-5, while the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders are all 6-5.
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 127 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on Pittsburgh at 8:00 ET The 10-2 Pittsburgh Panthers (AP No. 17) and the 10-2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons meet Saturday in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (no Clemson this year, after the Tigers had won the last SIX!). Pat Narduzzi was hired as Pitt's head coach on Dec 26, 2014. He led Pitt to bowl games in FOUR of his first five seasons, before last year's team went 6-5 but declined an invite due to COVID conditions. However, this year has been special, as Pitt has lost at least three games in every season since 1981 and has not ended a season in the AP top-25 since the 1982 season. That could all change this season, beginning with the ACC title game. Dave Clawson is in his eighth season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons opened 8-0 (first time in school history) and with a dominating 41-10 win last Saturday at Boston College, clinched the Atlantic Division with a 7-1 record (Pitt was 7-1 in the Coastal).
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
My NFC 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. The Rams lost in Green Bay to the Packers 32-18 in last year's Divisional Round but much has changed as the Rams venture back to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon for this Week 12 contest. I'll get to those changes in a bit but first, let me set the stage. The Rams opened the season 7-1 through Week 8 but were then upset by the Tiatns at home, who were playing without Henry. They then lost 31-10 at San Francisco in Week 10. A Week 11 bye likely came at a good time. The Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints (game was played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida) but rebounded to win their next SIX games, before the Rodgers 'vaccination fiasco!' Rodgers sat out the 13-7 loss at KC but returned in a 17-0 win over Seattle, before the Packers lost 34-31 at Minnesota last Sunday. The Packers are 8-3 and battling the 9-2 Cardinals for the NFL's No. 1 seed.
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11-28-21 | Steelers v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals will welcome the 5-4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. The 7-3 Ravens lead the tightly-contested AFC North, with the Bengals, Steelers and 6-5 Browns in hot pursuit. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a definitive win at Las Vegas (32-13) last week, while Pittsburgh saw a five-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday night in a 41-37 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Sitautional Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. The defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs are coming off a 30-10 home MNF win over the Giants and will visit Indianapolis on Sunday with a record 7-3 record. No other team in the NFC South owns a winning record, so the Bucs mission the rest of the way is to try to earn the NFC's No. 1 seed (only team to get a first round bye). Currently, the Bucs trail the 9-2 Cards and 8-3 Packers. The Colts made the playoffs last season at 10-6 but opened the current season 0-3. They were 1-4 through Week 5 but have won FIVE of their last six and at 6-5, are close to being back inside the AFC playoff 'cut line!' The ageless Tom Brady threw for 307 yards and a pair of TDs in the Buccaneers' 30-10 rout of the New York Giants on Monday night. He's completing 67.1% for 3,177 yards with 29 TDs and just 8 INTs. Not bad for someone fastly approaching Medicare. Fournette has taken over the featured RB position from Jones and leads the team with 521 yards on 4.3 YPC and 4 TDs. The Bucs are averaging only 91.2 YPG (26th) keeping the constant pressure on Brady. He's got a talented receiving corps, led by WRs Godwin (63 / 5 TDs) and Evans (47 / 10 TDs). Brown (29 / 4 TDs in five games) is still out but TE Gronk (22 / 4 TDs in five games) returned LW with six catches for 71 yards on MNF. The offense averages 30.8 PPG (1st) on 406.0 YPG (2nd). A comment on the defense, shortly. Indy RB Taylor came on late in his rookie season and after a slow start to the 2021 season, he now leads the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC with 13 TDs. He adds 32 catches (T-2nd on the team) with another 2 TDs. QB Carson Wentz was reunited with Frank Reich (now Indy's head coach) and his career has been revived. He's completing 63.0% for 2,484 yards with 17 TDs and 3 INTs. WR Pittman leads with 57 catches (13.2 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Cox may have just 15 catches but he's caught 4 TDs. The offense is averaging 28.1 PPG (5th) and the defense is allowing 22.3 PPG (11th). Taylor destroyed the Buffalo Bills last week to the tune of 185 yards and four scores while adding a fifth touchdown on a pass reception. The 41-15 blowout was old-school football at its best. The Colts now face a Tampa Bay team that is just 2-3 on the road, allowing 33.0 PPG in its three losses (at the Rams, Saints and the Washington FB team), while scoring just 23.3 PPG. Note: Tampa Bay is 5-0 at home, averaging 38.4 PPG. Jonathan Taylor became the NFL's first 1,000-yard rusher this season and this Sunday, he can break the league record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage and at least one TD. He's tied with Lydell Mitchell and LaDainian Tomlinson (eight). Not bad company. The Tampa Bay defense is still somewhat banged up and looks very vulnerable against an Indy offense "hitting on all cylinders." The Colts are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four in an underdog role (3-1 SU), while Tampa is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite in 2021. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma at 7:30 ET. The 10-1 Oklahoma Sooners and the 10-1 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet Saturday from Boone Pickens Stadium in a series nicknamed "Bedlam." Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 ranked team and while the season was full of close calls the Sooners were 9-0 before losing 27-14 at Baylor on November 13. Oklahoma bounced back with a 28-21 win over Iowa St last Saturday and that means a win in Stillwater means the Sooners will advance to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma St just missed making the AP's preseason poll (ranked first among "others receiving votes") but has put together a terrific season, going 10-1 (lone loss was 24-21 at Iowa St), beating three ranked opponents along the way. Cutting to the case, Oklahoma St has already clinched a spot in next Saturday's Big 12 championship game but if the Cowboys don't want to have to face the Sooners again next Saturday, they'll have to beat them here. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler was one of the Heisman favorites but lost his job to Caleb Williams, who gave the offense a big boost initially but he's struggled recently. Wiliams enters the game having completed 65.5% for 1,418 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs plus he'as added 372 rushing yards (7.0 YPC / 6 TDs). However, in the loss to Baylor and last week's win over Iowa St, he completed just 17 of 36 (47.2%) for 229 yards with one TD and 3 INTs (84 yards rushing and two TDs). RB Brooks is explosive and has gained 972 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs for a running game that averages 175.4 YPG (56th). WR Haselwood has the most catches (36) and TDs (6) but averages only 10.6 YPC. Mims has 29 catches and 4 TDs plus is the "big play guy" averaging 22.2 YPC. The Oklahoma defense allows 24.2 PPG, which works when the team's offense averages 38.9 PPG QB Sanders has put up good but not great numbers for Okla St. He's completed 60.2% for 1,997 yards with 15 Tds and 6 INTs, while running for 417 yards with 5 TDs. RB Warren has topped 1,000 years (1,078) on 4.9 YPC and 10 TDs (Cowboys average 195.7 YPG to rank 33rd). WR Martin leads with 54 catches (6 Tds), while Presley has 35 catches (5 TDs). The defensive edge certainly goes to the Cowboys, who rank 3rd nationally in both points allowed (14.90 and yards allowed (261.3). This is the 116th meeting between the two schools and Oklahoma leads 90–18–7. Most notably, Oklahoma has won six straight and 16 out of the last 18 in the series. This year’s game marks the first time since 1984 that both will be ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. It should be noted that while Oklahoma is just 4-6 ATS against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma St lost its first game this season ATS but takes a 9-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. I will also note that the Sooners are an underdog in a non-bowl game for the first time since the 2017 edition of "Bedlam" (62 straight games) when the Sooners (as a 2.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys 62-52 in Stillwater. See you all again next Saturday in a rematch of Okla/Okla St in the Big 12's 2021 championship game. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on LSU at 7:00 ET. The Aggies felt that they were snubbed last season, finishing FIFTH in the CFP rankings. A%M opened No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll but after a 3-0 start, A&M lost 20-10 to Arkansas (neutral site) and at home 26-22 to Miss St. However, A&M's 41-38 home victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9 gave the team's season new 'life.' A&M added three more victories after the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies allowed only 31 points in those three games. However, A&M came up short on Nov 13 in Oxford, losing 29-19 to Ole Miss. A 52-3 win over Prairie View A&M hardly eased the pain of the Ole Miss loss. The 8-3 Aggies now finish up a disappointing season at LSU on Saturday. Talk about disappointing! LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FIVE of seven since, with their only two wins coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED' and ULM. LSU and head coach Ed Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. At 5-6, LSU's season would end with a loss to Texas A&M but a win would make the Tigers bowl-eligible and allow Orgeron to coach his final game as LSU's head coach in a bowl game. QB Calzado is hardly a star for A%M, completing only 56.0% of his passes for 1,943 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs. His top-two receivers are WR Smith (41 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (36 catches / 4 TDs) but A&M does have a pair of RBs that allow the team to average 195.0 YPG (34th). Spiller has run for 984 yards (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Achane has 861 yards (7.3 YPC / 9 TDs). The A&M offense averages 29.8 PPG (60) but it's the defense that carries this team, allowing 14.9 PPG (2nd in the nation!). Max Johnson is no Joe Burrow but don't put the blame on him for LSU's less-than satisfying season. He's completing 60.6% for 2,509 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. WR Bech has 42 catches (just 3 TDs) and fellow WR Boutte has 38 but 9 TDs. A HUGE issue has been a running game that is averaging only 109.8 YPG (117th) on 3.2 YPC. That said, RB Davis-Price has 919 yards (4.8 YPC with 6 TDs) and is capable of a big game (see the Florida game when he ran for 287 yards). LSU is averaging 27.1 PPG and allowing 25.5. Remember that 2019 team? It averaged 48.4, while allowing 21.9 I will go on record to say that A&M was overrated last season and the team's effort this season, save the Alabama upset, has been disappointing as well. That defense is terrific but note that the Aggies have hardly been 'road warriors' in 2021. They edged the Buffs 10-7 at Colorado early on, then lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss (see above for both recaps). Should we really be impressed by the team's 34-14 at Missouri? I've NEVER been an Ed Orgeron fan but he is a motivator. Note that despite the team's lack of any consistent scoring, LSU had Alabama on its heels in a 20-14 loss and pushed Arkansas into OT in a 16-13 loss. LSU has six losses but those defeats have come against ranked and quality teams. Oregron's "Win One for the Gipper" pregame 'sermon' just could motivate LSU to get the outright win and give "Mr Ed" a bowl game to prepare for. Taking the points here is an easy choice. Good luck...Larry |
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11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Boston College at 12:00 ET. No. 18 Wake Forest will know the result of the North Carolina/NC State game (Friday night) when it takes the field at 12 noon ET in Chestnut Hill, Ma on Saturday, If NC State beats North Carolina, the Demon Deacons will need to beat BC in order to win the Atlantic Division and play Pittsburgh in the ACC title game next Saturday. Even if the Wolpack lose to the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons would still need to win, because losses by NC St and Wake would give Clemson the Atlantic Division title! |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout (Apple Cup) is on Washington at 8:00 ET. COVID pretty much wiped out almost all of the 2020 season for Washington St (1-3) and its in-state rival Washington (3-1). Both teams had new head coaches in 2020, Nick Rolovich at Washington St and Jimmy Lake at Washington. As the two rivals square off for the latest edition of the series called "The Apple Cup," both teams have a different head coach. Nick Rolovich lost his job for not following the state's COVID-19 mandate, while Jimmy Lake was let go because the Huskies, who were ranked No. 20 in the AP's preseason poll, were just 4-6 through 10 games. Incredibly, after his Cougars beat lowly Arizona 48-14 last week, Washington State interim head coach Jake Dickert said, "There's still a lot to play for." He was alluding to the Apple Cup rivalry against Washington and the Cougars' impending bowl game. However, a day later, when Oregon lost, Dickert could add a potential Pac-12 North championship to the list of things his team could still accomplish. Say what? With a WSU victory in Seattle on Friday, and an Oregon State win over Oregon on Saturday, the Cougars would tie for first place atop the division with the Ducks and Beavers. Washington State would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-1 record in divisional play and would advance to the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas on Dec 3. As for Washington and Bob Gregory, in his eighth season on the Huskies' staff, the team that was No. 20 in the preseason, can only hope to play 'spoiler' as at 4-7 / 3-5), the Huskies have failed to qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2009. Wash St QB DeLaura is completing 62.3% for 2,512 yards with 23 TDs and 9 INTs. The Cougars' running game is averaging just 123.2 YPG (105th), although RB Borhi (751 yards / 5.4 YPC / 10 TDs) is a solid player. WRs Harris (68 catches / 9 TDs) and Jackson (57 / 15.6 YPC / 7 TDs) are an impressive duo. The Wash St defense allows 25.3 PPG, ranking 58th. Washington QB Morris completes 60.6% for 2,456 yards but has a poor 14-12 TD-to-INT ratio. The running game is pretty much non-existent, averaging 108.8 YPG (118th). The Huskies are scoring only 22.3 PPG (106th), leaving it to the team's defense to keep them competitive (22.1 PPG allowed ranks 28th). Washington St has EVERYTHING to play for in this game, while Washington can only play spoiler. Does recent series count for anything? If it does, the Cougars are in trouble. Washington has dominated the Apple Cup, going 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and has won the last SEVEN overall (ALL by double digits), longest series winning streak since UW’s 8-game run from 1974-’81). Bottom line, this is basically Washington's de-facto bowl game with no postseason in its future. Here's why I believe Washington can win. In Its first game under Bob Gregory, the Huskies outgained the Buffs of Colorado by a 426-183 margin (22-9 advanatge in FDs), while holding them to just 2 of 13 on third-down opportunities. The Huskies were 'done in' by a minus-4 TO deficit. Washington St will get a chance to go bowing' in December, while Washington gets its 'bowl game' and a W-I-N on Friday at home. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Game of the Week (ACC) is on NC State at 7:00 ET. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. However, as the Tar Heels roll into Raleigh to take on rival North Carolina St, Mack Brown's team is an UNDERWHELMING 6-5. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren's Wolfpack come in 8-3 (5-2 ACC) and can still take the ACC Atlantic Division with a win and a Wake Forest loss on Saturday at Boston College. Sam Howell has had an excellent season but NOT a Heisman-like season, completing 63.5% for 2,704 yards with 22 TDs and 8 INTs, while rushing for 717 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs). He sat out last week (upper body injury) and his status for this game has not been determined. Howell's running plus that of RB Chandler (1,004 yards (6.0 YPC / 13 TDs) gives the Tar Heels an excellent rushing attack (212.7 YPFG to rank 20th). WR Downs is having a terrific season with 90 catches (13.3 YPC / 8 TDs) plus Green may only have 26 receptions, but he averages 20.3 YPC with 5 TDs. North Carolina can score (37.0 PPG ranks 14th) but the defense is 'ugly,' allowing 31.4 PPG (98th). QB Devin Leary did not come into the season with the hype of Howell but is having a terrific season, completing 65.8% for 3,186 yards with 31 TDs and only 5 INTs. RBs Knight (684 yards / 5.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Person (573 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TD) are solid but the team is only averaging 127.8 YPG on the ground (98th). Emezie leads with 55 catches (4 TDs), while Thomas (47 / 7 TDs) and Carter (31 / 6 TDs) give Leary multiple options. The offense is not far behind North Carolina's (33.0 PPG ranks 24th) but the HUGE edge comes on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wolfpack are holding opponents to 18.7 PPG (13th), almost two TDs less than the Tar Heels' D. Here's the bottom line, Howell's status is up in the air and the Tar Heels would LOVE to hand their rival a loss, knocking them out a chance to win the Atlantic Division. However, North Carolina is 0-4 away from Chapel Hill, losing 17-10 at Va Tech, 45-22 to Ga Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 44-34 at Notre Dame and 30-23 at Pitt. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren just could have a 'magical' season in 2021. A win here gives NC St nine wins and could lead to a championship game appearance and a bowl berth. He's been at NC St since 2013 and has led NC St to bowls in seven of the last eight years but his teams have never won more than nine games. NC St can't control what Wake Forest does but the Wolfpack can win (and cover) here against a team that hasn't wom awy from home in four previosu tries, while allowing 39.3 PPG in its last three away games Good luck...Larry |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Turkey Shoot is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are both dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thanksgiving night in New Orleans plus both are trying to "regain their footing." The Bills were in the AFC championship game last season (13-3 regular season) but after a surprising upset at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, won their next FOUR games, averaging 39.0 per contest. However, a 34-31 loss to Titans began a slide in which Buffalo has lost THREE of five and at 6-4, find themselves a half-game back of the 7-4 Patriots in the AFC East. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints then lost back-to-back games by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). Last Sunday, the Saints lost 40-29 at Philly, for their THIRD straight loss. Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his place among the elite QBs last season and through the Bill's first seven games, had a 17-3 TD to INT ratio. However, over the last three games (two losses), he has four TDs and five INTs. He's still having a good season (65.7% / 2,811 yards / 21-8 ratio with 340 rushing yards and 3 TDs) but it's time for him to step up. The running game is nothing special (118.8 YPG ranks 12th) but Allen has a strong cast of receivers. Diggs leads the way 60 / 6 TDs0 and possession receiver Beasley has 57 catches but a YPC average of only 8.8. Samuels has 33 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and E Knox (28 / 5 TDs) complete the major contributors. However, Beasley's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The defense has remained solid throughout the ups and downs, allowing 17.6 PPG (2) and just 283.7 YPG (1st). Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he had two straight interception-free games in his first two games as the Saints' starter, the Saints lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. He threw three TDs at Philly (team's third straight loss) but had two INTs and a modest 214 passing yards. The Saints have played the last two weeks without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) remains questionable for this game and so is his backup Ingram, who ran for 88 yards at Philly (was limited in practice this week). The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 203.4 yards per game through the air (26th). It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. The Saints have won the last five meetings with the Bills, although the last meeting came back in 2017. However, New Orleans is 3-0 all-time on Thanksgiving and is playing on the holiday for the THIRD time in four seasons. Sure, Buffalo is the better team but so were the defending champion Bucs when they lost 36-27 back in Week 8. BTW...Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do to win in the NFL was to "pick the better team?" The Saints have lost three games in a row for the first time since 2016 but take notice of this trend. The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 Week 1 shocker over the Packers and have been trading ATS wins and losses every single week. My bet says this trend (or pattern, or whatever you want to refer to it as) continues Thanksgiving night with the home dog 'barking' VERY loudly. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Thursday Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET. The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin will take Ole Miss (9-2, 5-2 SEC) to Starkville to play Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) in the Egg Bowl, the state's annual Thanksgiving matchup between these two in-state rivals. Two of the nation's best QBs will be the featured attraction. Ole Miss' Matt Corral is completing 67.5% for 3,100 yards with 19 TDs and just three INTs. He's also run for 552 yards and 10 more scores. His counterpart is Mississippi State's sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 76% for 4,113 yards with 34 TDs and eight INTs. NO QB in the nation has put up the numbers Rogers has in his last nine games, as he has clipsed 300 passing yards in each contest, with more than 400 yards in four of them! The edge for Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball is a running game that averages 231.1 YPG (8th), as RBs Ealy (643 yards / 6.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and Connor (561 yards / 5.2 YPC / 11 TDs) join Corral for quite a balanced attack that is averaging 517.4 YPG overall (5th). WR Drummond is the best receiver (53 / 8 TDs) but four other WRs average between 15.6 and 22.1 YPC! In fact, Ole Miss is the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! Th e defense is allowing 25.4 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 36.4 points. Obviously, Rogers has thrived in Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense but with the Bulldogs' running game averaging a putrid 62.1 YPG (129th) on 3.0 YPC, there is never any room for error with Miss St's passing game. WR Polk leads the way with 88 catches (9 TDs) and much like the Rebels' receiver corps, the Bulldogs have plenty of depth and talent. Much like Ole Miss, the Mississippi St defense allows 24.7 PPG but it doesn't own the kind of balance the Ole Miss offense has. Ole Miss has gotten healthier as the season has progressed and was clearly looking ahead last Saturday in only beating Vandy 31-17 but a win here would be VERY special. The Ole Miss program owns seven career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. A win here gets Ole Miss to 10-2 and could possibly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl berth. "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 128 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:20 ET. The 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to LA's SoFi Stadium for an important game with the 5-4 LA Chargers. Pittsburgh trails 6-3 Baltimore in the AFC North, with 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland still 'hanging around' As for the Chargers, they are tied with the Raider, a half-game back of the first-place Chiefs (6-4) in the AFC West, while the Broncos lurk at 5-5. Clearly, this is a game BOTH teams desperately want (and NEED) to win! The Steelers opened 1-3 but had won FOUR in a row, before playing to a tie last Sunday, against winless Detroit. Big Ben was supposedly washed up but he had completed 65.6% for 1,986 yards with 10 TDs and just 4 INTs through eight games, before missing last week because of COVID. Mason Rudolph got the start and was 30 of 50 for 242 yards with one TD and one INT (update to come). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 646 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 4TDs) plus has added 44 catches (2nd-most on the team), with 2 TDs. WR Johnson lead witch 52 catches (3 TDs) and TE Freiermuth has 32 catches and a team-high 4 TDs. With Smith-Schuster on IR, the Steelers are hoping WR Claypool (29 catches) will be able to play (he is questionable). The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 PPG (26th) but as always are playing good defense, allowing 20.6 PPG (8th). QB Justin Herbert had a good rookie season and opened the current season like gangbusters. His YTD numbers still look impressive (65.4% for 2,545 yards with 19 TDs and 7 iNTs) but he's really fallen off, as the Chargers are 1-3 after a 4-1 start. In those three losses, he completed just 55.6% for an average of 204.3 YPG with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. RB Ekeler is a terric all-purpose player, rushing for 523 yards (4.7 YPC with 5 TDs), while catching 39 passes for 4 TDs. WRs Allen (65 / 2 TDs) and Wiliams (41 / 6 TDs) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (28 / 2 TDs) is solid. Here's the deal. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin didn't rule out the possibility that Roethlisberger could play Sunday, but the game plan this week will revolve around backup Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in its last five games (4-0-1) but a closer look reveals the Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, needing referee-aided assistance to nip the Bears two weeks ago at home on MNF and this past Sunday, couldn’t even beat the winless Lions playing to a comical 16-16 tie. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 PPG in their last four home contests. The Chargers go on the road for the next two games, so a "W" here is almost a 'MUST!' I got down early on LA (-3.5) but the line jumped with the news that Big Ben may not play. He may and if so, the line will (should) come back down. Either way, my play is on the Chargers. Good luck...Larry |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:25 ET. The Cowboys were just 6-10 last season (5-11 ATS) but enter this Week 11 matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs at 7-2 and an 8-1 ATS mark. The Chiefs have struggled on and off in 2021 but THREE straight wins have them at 6-4 and atop the AFC West, a division they've won in each of the last five seasons. However, KC's ATS woes have continued, as they are just 3-7, after ending the 2020's regular season on a 1-7 ATS run.
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11-21-21 | Ravens -4.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT) but then won FIVE of six. However, they've lost TWO of their last three, including 22-10 at Miami on a Thursday night game in Week 10. Baltimore is currently 6-3 but the AFC North also features 5-3-1 Pittsburgh, 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland. The Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost FOUR in a row. Chicago 'lives' in the NFC North, a division that's dominated by the 8-2 Packers and embarrassed by the 0-8-1 Lions.
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11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints have lost two games in a row by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). The 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles welcome the Saints to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday coming off perhaps their best game of the season, a 30-13 victory at Denver last Sunday.
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 63 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic is on Utah at 7:30 ET. The 9-1 Oregon Ducks retained their No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings on Tuesday and will take a five-game winning streak into their Saturday night game in Salt Lake City against the 7-3 Utah Utes (Utah moved into the CFP rankings at No. 23). Oregon is 6-1 in league play and leads the Pac-12 North by two games, while Utah's 6-1 league mark gives them just a one-game edge over Arizona St in the Pac-12 South. Oregon can clinch the North title and a spot in the conference championship game with a win Saturday or an Oregon State loss. Utah can clinch the South with a win over the Ducks or an Arizona State loss. This could very well be a preview of the Pac 12 championship game.
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11-20-21 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -7 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 109 h 3 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Mia-Fl at 7:30 ET. A pair of 5-5 ACC teams square off at Hard rock Stadium in Miami on Saturday night, as the Va Tech Hokies meet the Miami Hurricanes. Both are also 3-3 in the ACC's Coastal Division and are no threat to reach the ACC title game but both are just ONE win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Virginia Tech hosted the Duke Blue Devils last Saturday and came away with a 48-17 win. QB Braxton Burmeister threw for 215 yards, three TDs, one interception, plus added 71 rushing yards on the ground. RBs Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King combined for 207 yards and two TD on just 21 carries. Miami visited the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday and left with a heart breaking 31-28 defeat. The Hurricanes overcame a 17-0 deficit to take a 28-20 lead early in the fourth quarter but FSU scored 10 points in the final five minutes to get the win. QB Tyler Van Dyke went 25/47 threw for 316 yards, four touchdowns (to four different players!) and two interceptions. |
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11-20-21 | UCLA v. USC +3.5 | Top | 62-33 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle 4 LA' is on USC at 4:00 ET. The UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans meet in Pac-12 action from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday with the winner earning the "Victory Bell." The Bruins are 6-4 (4-3 in the Pac 12) while the Trojans are 4-5 (3-4). The Bruins are coming off a 44-20 win over Colorado in their last game, after back-to-back losses to Oregon and Utah, which took them out of any Pac 12 championship game hopes. USC opened the season as the AP's No. 15 team but opened just 3-2 and then saw its season crumble, with just ONE win (over then winless Arizona) in its next four games. Last week's game at Cal was postponed and will be made up Dec 4. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-21 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Texas at 12: 00 ET. Texas began the season ranked 21st in the AP's preseason and opened with a 38-18 win over ULL (note: ULL has NOT lost since and at 9-1, is ranked 22nd in the current AP poll). The Longhorns lost 40-21 to Arkansas in their second game but then won three in a row, to enter their HUGE rivalry game with Oklahoma at 4-1 (still No. 21 in the AP poll). However, after taking a 28-7 lead in the first quarter, the Longhorns saw the game (and maybe their season?) crumble. Oklahoma would outscore Texas 25-3 in the 4th quarter for a 55-48 win and Texas hasn't won since. Texas hit 'rock bottom' with its 57-56 (OT) loss at home to Kansas, a team that entered this season 5-84 in Big 12 play the previous decade, as well as with a 2-52 road record in all games. 4-6 Texas now 'limps' into Morgantown to take on the 4-6 West Va Mountaineers. West Va head coach Neal Brown is in his third season with the Mountaineers and entered the current season 11-11. West Va comes into this game 4-6, off back-to-back losses (by the combined score of 58-20) and like Texas, would need to win its last two games to become bowl-eligible. However, it's hard to imagine either of these teams thinking too much about a bowl bid, as just a plain "W" would do. No one can argue Texas doesn't have the offense to be among the top-25 teams, as QB Thompson is completing 64.3% for 1,914 yards with 23 TDs and just 7 INTs. RB Robinson has 1,227 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC and 11 TDs, as Texas is averaging 37.8 PPG (13th). However, the defense is a MESS, allowing 32.5 PPG (107th) on 437.0 YPG (105th). West Va QB Doege is completing 65.5% for 2,448 yards but has a much more modest TD/INT ratio at 13-10. RB Brown gained over 1,000 yards last year in 10 games but through 10 games this season has just 751 (but 11 TDs). West Va's offense (25.7) averages about a TD less per game than Texas does but its defense (24.1) allows about a TD less per game. The visitor in this series had won four in a row and West Va almost made it five in row last year, falling just 17-13 at Austin. In the end, this contest is not about the numbers. Texas (on paper) is the MUCH better team and is getting points. The 'key' will be if the Longhorns can 'Cowboy Up,' as they like to say in Texas. The Longhorns 'booted' head coach Tom Herman (32-18 in four years at Texas, leading the Longhorns to four bowl wins), for Steve Sarkisian. One wonders how Sarkissian could survive by losing SEVEN in a row to end the year (Texas is home to Kansa St in its final game)? How can the Texas defense possibly play worse and if Sarkisian can't 'rally his troops' to a win here, he deserves to be 'voted out of office! Take the FG or so with Texas. Hook 'em Horns! Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-21 | Air Force +2 v. Nevada | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Game of the Year is on Air Force at 9:00 ET. The Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack meet Friday night at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nv. Both schools are 7-3, including 4-2 in MWC play. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons will be back 'bowling' in 2021. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell, who arrived in Reno in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Air Force has thrown just 98 passes in its nine games but as will come as no surprise, leads the nation in rushing at 311.1 YPG , averaging 4.9 YPC with 31 TDs. RB Roberts has 1,064 yards (10 TDs) and QB Daniels has 646 yards (9 TDs). Two other players of note are Davis (360 yards on 7.7 YPC) and Hughes (250 yards on 7.8 YPC). Air Force's defense is often overlooked but shouldn't be, as the Falcons are allowing only 17.6 PPG (11th) on 288.3 YPC (5th). While Air Force 'lives' by the run, Nevada 'lives' by the pass. QB Strong completed 70.1% with 27 TDs and 4 INTs last season and comes into this game completing 70.5% for 3,547 yards with 29 TDs and 7 INTs. He's put those kinds of numbers despite a running game that averages only 64.2 YPG (129th) on 2.6 YPC. Three receivers have 50-plus catches, led by WRs Doubs (64 / 7 TDs) and Stovall (51 / 1 TD) plus TE Turner has 55 with 8 TDs. Nevada is averaging 34.9 PPG. The Nevada D is not bad, allowing 24.2 PPG (55th). Nevada is 5-0 at home this season and will take a 9-game home winning streak into this contest but one MUST take into consideration that Air Force is 4-0 on the road, while going 4-0 ATS as well. Breaking down the matchup we find that the Air Force defense allows just 184.1 YPG through the air, ranking 14th in the nation. On the other hand, I believe Air Force will be able to run effectively against Nevada and that also serves the purpose of keeping Strong on the sidelines. Take the 'Flyboys!' Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 48 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET. QB Matt Ryan no longer has much of a receiving corps plus a running game that's worse than New England's (67.7 YPG ranks 29th) but per usual, he's on pace for another 4,000 yard season (he's topped 4,000 yards the last 10 seasons). A bright spot for Atlanta's passing game is Florida rookie TE Pitts, who leads the team with 40 catches. There are NO bright spots on a defense allowing 29.2 PPG (31st). |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET. Pick your poison. The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 on the road this season, while the San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 at home. However, San Francisco has beaten the Rams FOUR consecutive times (more on these trends at the end). The 3-5 49ers are in desperate need of a win when they welcome the 7-2 the Rams to Levi's Stadium on Monday night at Santa Clara, Ca. As for the Rams, they are battling the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West lead and got some huge help Sunday when the Murray-less Cards were routed 34-10 by the Panthers, dropping them to 8-2. The Rams are coming off a 28-16 home loss to the Tennessee Titans and one of LA's two TDs came with 24 seconds left to make the outcome look closer than it was. QB Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the season (one TD / 2 INTs and a QB rating of 71.0) and accepted blame for the setback. Head coach Sean McVay is looking for a bounce-back performance. "We have to play cleaner football," McVay said. "I want to see what we learn from our response. The last time we had a setback, I liked how we responded." Expect Stafford to bounce back. In his previous three games, he had thrown for 10 TDs and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 128.7, 117.3 and 127.3! He's completing 68.2% on the season for 2,771 yards with 23 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 111.0 / his career mark is 91.0). LA's running game doesn't get help much but even though vet WR Woods (45 / 12.4 / 4 TDs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in practice this week, Stafford still has plenty of 'weapons.' Fellow WR Kupp leads the NFL with 74 catches and has 10 TDs (he's caught five-plus passes in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL). WR Jeferson (27 / 16.0 / 3 TDs) is MORE than capable of stepping up and who knows, maybe OBJ will like the 'lights' of Hollywood. TE Higbee (35 catches / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper. The LA defense hasn't quite dominated but it's still one of the most-feared in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo (65.3% / 1,754 yards / 8 TDs and 5 INTs) was considered the team's 'savior' when he led the 49ers to the Super bowl at the end of the 2019 season but he seems to be regularly on the 'hot seat' these days. That said, he has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, with QB ratings of over 100.0 in both. Like the Rams, the 49ers don't have much of a running game and last week ran for just 39 yards, the lowest total in the Kyle Shanahan era. WR Samuel has 49 catches (18.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and when healthy, TE Kittle (25 catches / 13.1 YPC / 1 TD) is among the very best in the league. He did return last week (six catches for 101 yards with his first tD catch of the year) but let's wait and see. Yes, the 49ers have won FOUR straight against the Rams but how can one ignore that since the start of the 2020 season, San Francisco is just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in home games? Yes, the lone "W" came against the Rams last October but the Rams are the MUCH better team and are coming off a humiliating home loss. A bounce back seems highly likely and now, with Arizona's loss, the Rams have a chance to join the Cards atop the NFC West. Stafford has found a 'home' with the Rams and enters as the only QB to throw for 250-plus yards in all nine games. Taking him over Jimmy G is a 'no-brainer' plus the Rams own the better defense. Lay the small points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. |
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11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ws FB team at 1:00 ET. |
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11-14-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cle Browns at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns are FINALLY rid of former All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and that HAS to be good news. Baker Mayfield and the 5-4 Browns are in Foxborough, Ma to take on Mac Jones and the 5-4 New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Mayfield threw for 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14-of-21 passing, and Nick Chubb rushed for 137 yards and two scores to help the Browns rout the rival Cincinnati Bengals 41-16 last Sunday, in what was Cleveland's best overall game this season. The Patriots coasted to a 24-6 win at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, giving them their first three-game winning streak since the 2019 season and after a 1-3 start, New England has won four of five to also come in at 5-4. Cleveland had dropped three of its previous four games before Sunday's rout of Cincinnati. Without Beckham, the Browns had a balanced offensive attack with Mayfield completing passes to eight different receivers. Mayfield is not having a great season (66.7% for 1,917 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs), as the Cleveland offense counts on the NFL's best rushing offense (160.2 YPG, 5.3 YPC and 16 rushing TDs all rank No. 1 among all NFL teams). However, Nick Chubb (3rd in the NFL with 721 rushing yards) was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list early in the week and ruled out on Friday. D'Ernest Johnson is the team's lone healthy RB but the good news is that Johnson ran for a career-best 146 yards and a TD in his first start against Denver back on Oct 21. "We are extremely confident in D'Ernest. That has not been a question yet," Mayfield said. The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (309.7 YPG) and is arguably coming off its best effort. Cincy's Joe Burrow came into last Sunday's game as the only QB with multiple TD passes in every game but was held without a TD pass and was intercepted twice. His QB rating on the season is 102.6 but against Cleveland it was 69.0! Alabama rookie Mac Jones has completed 68.0% for 2,135 and completed at least 70% of his passes in FIVE of his first nine games, the only rookie QB to do so. However, he has a modest 10-7 TD/INT ratio and in the win over Carolina, he threw for just 139 yards on 12-of-18 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Over the last two weeks, Jones has completed just 57 percent of his passes while averaging 178 yards passing. The No. 15 overall pick in this year's draft completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts while averaging 254.1 yards over his first seven starts. More bad news is that the Patriots' leading rusher (only rusher?) Damien Harris began the week in the concussion protocol. Harris has run for 547 yards and 7 TDs for a team that averages just 106.8 YPG on the ground (19th) and has been ruled OUT for Sunday's game. Belichick-coached teams always play good defense and the 2021 Pats are allowing just 18.9 PPG (4th) on 340.3 YPG (9th). I can't help but think that the Pats are a little overrated and that Browns just may be a little underappreciated. Breaking the game down finds this is a tough Browns defense that's good at stopping the run (84.8 YPG ranks 3rd) and New England can't be expected to run well without Harris. That's going to put even more pressure on Jones, who is off back-to-back mediocre efforts (he can call Joe Burrow and ask about the Cleveland D!). The Browns rank first in the league in YPC, in average time per drive and rank in the top-three in plays per drive. Kevin Stefanski needs to out-coach Bill Belichick today, which is never an easy thing to do, but the talent on this Cleveland defense will prove to be the difference in the end in my opinion. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Utah State v. San Jose State -4.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Late Show' play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. The Utah State Aggies were blown out in their first three games last season and head coach Gary Anderson was let go. The Aggies played just six games in 2020, ending 1-5. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas St and he brought QB Logan Bonner with him. The result? Utah St is 7-2 overall, including 4-1 in the MWC's Mountain Division. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. However, the Spartans are just 5-5, including 3-3 in the West Division. The two schools meet Saturday night in San Jose. Bonner has been very good, completing 61.3% for 2,486 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Bonner has an excellent group of receivers, led by Thompkins (72 catches / 18.3 YPC / 8 TDs). He's joined by a trio that combines for 87 catches and 14 TDs. RBs Tyler (516 yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and Noa (431 yards / 4.2 YPC / 3 TDs) give the Aggies some nice balance on offense, as the Aggies are averaging 31.8 PPG (43rd) on 474.9 YPG (12th). The defense is an issue, as Utah St allows 27.2 PPG (79th) on 425.3 YPG (101st). QB Nick Starkel is off a very good season (64.2% with 17 TDs and 7 INTs) but he's been inconsistent and has been replaced by Nick Nash at times. Starkel is completing a poor 50.8% for 1,207 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs, while Nick Nash has thrown for 971 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs plus run 359 yards. RB Tyler Nevens leads the Spartans with 699 rushing yards (4.8 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Deese leads with 42 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs). San Jose St is averaging just 21.4 PPG (down from 28.6 PPG) but its defense is holding opponents to 23.0 PPG (50th) on 355.9 YPG (46th). Recent series history all favors Utah St (San Jose St had won 11 of 12 but Utah St has won the last EIGHT meetings) but oddsmakers have made the 5-5 Spartans more than a three-point favorite over the 7-2 Aggies. Wonder why? Utah St is a money-burning 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Jose St enters on a 4-game ATS winning streak and chalk this up as a game many will call an upset (a 5-5 team beating a 7-2 team), unaware that the Spartans are the favorite in the game. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Arkansas -2.5 v. LSU | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 75 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Arkansas at 7:30 ET. Sam Pittman did an excellent job as Georgia's OL coach and got his first head coaching gig at Arkansas in 2020. Not much went right, as the Razorbacks finished 3-7. More than a few publications had Arkansa pegged as the 7th team in the SEC's 7-team SEC West but Arkansas opened 4-0 SU and ATS, with wins over then-No. 15 Texas (40-21) and then-No. 7 Texas A&M (20-10). However, the Razorbacks are just 2-3 (1-4 ATS) over their last five games. At 6-3 (25th in the latest CFP rankings), Arkansa travels to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who check in at 4-5 (2-4 in the SEC). Arkansas is off a hard-fought 31-28 victory against Mississippi State, while LSU scared the 'you know what' out of Alabama in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, falling just 20-14 as a 4-TD underdog (FYI...LSU was my free play!). Arkansas QB Jefferson has had an excellent season, completing 64.2% for 1,848 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs. He is also one of FOUR Arkansas players with more than 400 yards rushing, as the team's running game ranks 4th in the nation averaging 244.3 YPG on 5.3 YPC. Burks (48 catches / 16.6 YPC / 8 TDs) is the lone receiver of note but the Arkansas offense is good enough to average 32.6 PPG (35th) on 457.8 YPG (21st). Defensively, Arkansas is credible, allowing 24.0 PPG (57th) on 351.2 YPG (41st). LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FOUR of five since, with their lone win coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED!' The Gators opened 3-1 (lone blemish was a two-point loss to Alabama) but has now lost FOUR of five (only win over 2-7 Vandy, which is 0-5 in the SEC). Max Johnson has done a credible job at QB, completing 60.1% for 2,169 yards with 22 TDs and 6 INTs. A HUGE issue is a running game that is averaging only 112.0 YPG (116th) on 3.4 YPC. It's actually worse than that, as LSU ran for 321 yards vs Florida. Take that one game away and LSU is averaging 85.6 YPG. The LSU defense is allowing 27.8 PPG (79th). LSU and head coach Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. The Tigers need two wins in their last three games to become bowl eligible and extend Orgeron's tenure by one game. Coming off the team's 'leave it all on the field' effort at Alabama, I find it hard to believe that LSU doesn't suffer a letdown in this one. Orgeron said Max Johnson remains the team's starting QB but against Arkansas he'll give freshman Garrett Nussmeier "significant snaps at the beginning of the game, and we'll see how it goes." How is that a good thing? The Tigers allowed just SIX yards rushing to the Tide last week (how is that possible?), after allowing 330 to Kentucky and 265 to Ole Miss. Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is taking it one game at a time: "I believe LSU played as physical and as hard as they had all year," Pittman assessed earlier in the week. "Coach Orgeron certainly has the attention of the team still and they're very, very talented. From what I saw on film, compared to the other weeks, I thought they played extremely well and physically on Saturday against Alabama."Arkansas plays with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 27-24 in the last meeting on November 21st of last year. Yes, Alabama is up next but how could Arkansa be looking ahead? The LAST thing this team needs is a loss heading into that contest. Arkansas is the better team and I expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Good Luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington +6 | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Washington at 7:00 ET. Washington was ranked 20th in the AP's preseason poll and fellow Pac-12 member Arizona St checked in at No. 25. However, as these two conference rivals at Seattle on the second Saturday of November, both teams have been disappointments. Arizona St has had the better season, as its 31-16 victory against visiting USC last Saturday got them to 6-3, making them bowl-eligible. Arizona State will face an interim coach when the Sun Devils travel to Washington for a Pacific-12 Conference matchup Saturday. Washington's 26-16 home loss to No. 4 Oregon last Saturday dropped the Huskies to 4-5 (3-3 in the Pac-12). To add insult to injury, Washington head coach Jimmy Lake was suspended for a week by athletic director Jen Cohen for a sideline altercation with one of his players. That means defensive coordinator Bob Gregory will act as head coach for the game.
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Classic in on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET. Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2) has its sights set on the SEC's West Division title, a goal that requires not only winning its next two conference games but also requires Alabama (8-1, 5-1) to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn. A&M can't control what Alabama does, so all the team can do is 'take care of business' and then wait and see. Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) has already lost to Alabama, so the Rebels' hopes of a SEC West title are not quite realistic. However, the winner of this game does put itself in prime position for a New Year's Six Bowl (A&M is 11th in the latest CFP rankings and Ole Miss is 15th). The Aggies are riding some strong momentum, after their 41-38 victory on Oct 9 over No.1-ranked Alabama gave their season new 'life' (A&M entered that contest on a two-game slide). A&M has added three more victories since the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies have allowed only 31 points the last three games. The team now ranks 2nd in the nation in allowing 14.7 PPG on 318.3 YPG (15th). Offensively, OB Calzado is no star, completing just 54.9% for 1,556 yards with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. His two best options are WR Smith (35 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (30 catches / 13.5 YPC / 4 TDs). Calzado does get help from a running game that is averaging 191.7 YPG (40th), led by the duo of Spiller (873 yards on 6.1 YPC with 5 TDs) and Achane (706 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs). The Aggies are averaging 38.6 PPG, which works well when one's defense is allowing about HALF that many points! The "ever-lovable" Lane Kiffin has himself quite a team in Oxford this season, one which has a chance to match the 2015 team that went 10-3 after a 48-20 win over Oklahoma St in the Sugar Bowl. QB Matt Corral has completed 66.9% for 2,5627 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs. Corral also chips in a team-leading 528 yards on 4.6 YPC and 10 TDs on the ground while three RBs add between 436 and 471 yards, giving Ole Miss the 5th-best running game in the nation at 237.9 YPG. Corall's one standout receiver is WR Drummond (40 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs). That said, Ole Miss is the ONLYm in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season. Defense IS a problem though, with Ole Miss allowing 27.0 PPG (72nd) on 432.7 YPG (104th). Ole Miss has lost three straight to A&M but in the last meeting (2019 also in Oxford), the Rebels outgained the Aggies 405-337, with the difference being an A&M 62-yard TD on a fumble recovery. That 2019 Ole Miss team couldn't 'hold a candle' to the 2021 edition and as much as I don't much care for Kiffin, I think Ole Miss has an offense that will be able to 'crack' the A&M defense. Don't forget, Alabama put up 522 yards at College Station and this one is in Oxford (note: Ole Miss averages 524.1 PPG). Take the small home dog but we won't need the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-21 | Syracuse v. Louisville -3 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET. Syracuse head coach Dino Babers made a big 'splash' in his third season at Syracuse, going 10-3 with a bowl win in 2018. However, the 'Cuse fell to 5-7 in 2019 and then went 1-10 in 2020. A bowl berth may be a 'must' in 2021 for Babers to save his job. Syracuse comes in off a bye at 5-4 but more importantly the team is 8-1 ATS, including seven straight covers. Syracuse travels to Louisville this Saturday, where head coach Scott Satterfield's Cardinals are 4-5, after going 8-5 in his first season (2019) and 4-7 in his second season (2020). Satterfield became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Appalachian St St to 40 wins from 2015 through 2018. The Mountaineers won bowls under Satterfield in 2015, 2016 and 2017, before leaving to take the Louisville job before the school's 2018 bowl appearance. RB Sean Tucker is coming off his most productive game of the season (he ran for 207 yards in Syracuse's 21-6 home win over Boston College two weeks ag0) and will take the field looking for an eighth straight 100-yard game. He has 1,267 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) and leads a running game that's averaging 248.8 YPG (3rd) on 5.6 YPC. Dual-threat QB Schrader adds 670 yards rushing (5.6 YPC / 11 TDs), while throwing for 1,119 yards with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. However, he's NOT an accurate passer, completing just 51.8%. Syracuse averages 29.4 PPG (56th) and its defense is holding opponents to 22.6 PPG (44th). Lining up opposite Schrader is Louisville QB Cunningham, who is the team's leading rusher (690 yards / 5.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and is a much better passer (60.5% / 2,077 yards / 9 TDs & 5 INTs). Joined by RB Mitchell (531 yards / 4.4 YPC / 4 TDs), Louisville also has an impressive running game, averaging 205.6 YPG (24th) on 5.0 YPC. Louisville scores in the neighborhood of Syracuse (28.8 PPG ranks 60th) but its defense is allowing 27.4 PPG, five points higher and also is allowing about 1000 YPG more. Louisville needs two more wins (in its last three games) to become bowl eligible. Winning here is pretty much a "must-win." Series history is ALL Louisville, as the Cardinals are 9-2 SU and have covered EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with the Orange. The home team has won four straight in the series, with the favorite covering the last seven (more trends in Louisville's favor). Louisville is just 3-2 at home but the two losses have come 34-33 to UVA, which scored a TD with 22 seconds left in the game and to Clemson, which Louisville led 24-17 into the 4th quarter, before the Tigers scored the game's final 13 points. Note that the Cards reached the Clemson two-yard-line but were SOD on that final drive. Lay the short price, as Syracuse's ATS winning streak ends at seven. Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game of the Week is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT), while the Dolphins opened with a 17-16 win at New England, despite being outplayed in every facet of the game. The teams have gone in opposite directions ever since, as Baltimore's won SIX of seven, while the Dolphins had lost SEVEN in a row before beating the hapless Texans 17-9 last Sunday (Houston won in Week 1 and has lost EIGHT in a row since).
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Pittsburgh at 7:30 ET. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (coming off a 6-5 season) entered the current season unranked and was not even among the 19 schools that were in the groups known as "others receiving votes." The two teams take the field Thursday night at Heinz Field for a key game in the ACC's Coastal Division. Pittsburgh is 7-2 overall (21st in the CFP rankings) and at 4-1 in ACC play, controls its destiny in the division, while North Carolina (5-4, 3-3) has had a HUGELY disappointing season but can stay in contention with a victory. The Tar Heels are fresh off a 58-55 comeback victory against then-No. 9 Wake Forest (Demon Deacons were 8-0), a contest in which they put up 546 yards of total offense. Howell won't win the Heisman but he leads a VERY balanced offense (273.6 YPG passing / 219.4 YPG rushing) by completing 63.1% for 2,408 yards (20 TDs / 7 INTs), while rushing for 699 yards (5.2 YPC / 8 TDs). RB Chandler has 884 rushing yards (6.2 YPC / 13 TDs) and WR Downs has 74 catches (1,104 yards / 8 TDs). North Carolina is averaging 38.9 PPG (12th) but the defense is a mess, It allowed 615 yards against Wake and is allowing 33.4 PPG on the season (111th) on 421.4 YPG (95th). Howell had more fanfare coming into the season but Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is having a Heisman-like season. He's completing 68.7% for 3,171 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs. He's run for 234 yards (4 TDs) and three RBs chip in between 315-to-498 yards for a running game averaging 167.2 YPG. WR Addison (54 catches / 18.3 YPC / 11 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh is tops in the nation in scoring (45.0 PPG) and second in total offense (543.3 YPG). Defensively, Pitt is solid, allowing 22.7 PPG (45th) on 345.0 YPG (37th). North Carolina has been consistently inconsistent from week to next this season and I expect that trend to continue here against Pittsburgh, which is 'smelling' the possibility of a memorable season. In contrast to NC's inconsistency, The Panthers have gone above the 50-point mark in four games this season, the most for any Pittsburgh team since 1905. What's more, 7-2 Pittsburgh is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in its seven wins in 2021. Meanwhile, the only consistency North Carolina has shown since the start of the 2020 season is this. The Tar Heels take the field Thursday 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a straight-up win. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* MAC Attack-Part 2 is on Ball St at 7:00 ET. The Ball State Cardinals will travel to Huskie Stadium in DeKalb to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday night. The Cardinals improved to 5-4 on the season with a 31-25 win over the Akron Zips (11/2) and are now 3-2 in the MAC-West. The Northern Illinois Huskies had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 52-47 loss at Kent St last Wednesday, dropping to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the MAC-West. The Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. They lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It didn't start that way, as Ball St opened 1-3 but the Cardinals have won FOUR of their last five. QB Plitt has completed 63.2% for 1,776 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He has a trio of solid WRs in Hall (56 / 5 TDs), (Jackson 39 / 2 TDs) and Tyler (32 / 5 TDs) plus RB Steele does a nice job (582 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs). Ball St is averaging a modest 25.2 PPG (88th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (75th). More in a bit. Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,853 yards with 12 TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 221.4 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group with 346 yards and has five TDs). RBs Ducker (579 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are the top producers. NIU averages 31.7 PPG (42) with a nice run/pass balance but the team's defense is allowing 33.8 PPG (112th) on 449.3 YPG (114th). NIU has the better record (6-3 to 5-4) and leads 4-1 to 3-2 in the division, YET Ball St is the small road favorite. That's NO oddsmaker's error, as Balls St is 3-0 SU on the road in MAC play, averaging 38.0 PPG and gets to go up against a Huskie defense that just allowed 52 points on 682 yards the last time out. Yes, NIU had won 10 straight in this series but Ball St has won the last two and makes it THREE in a row here with an easy win and cover. Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi bears at 8:15 ET. Chicago Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost THREE in a row. Some good news is head coach Matt Nagy is set to return to the sidelines Monday night following a one-game absence in the NFL's COVID-19 protocol and the BETTER news is the likely return of RB David Montgomery, who was back at practice this week after mending from a knee injury he sustained in Week 4. The Steelers opened 1-3 but have now won THREE in a row, outscoring opponents 65-49 during their three-game winning streak.
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11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:05 ET. The LA Chargers opened 4-1 but are hoping to hit the reset button after consecutive losses 38-6 at Baltimore and 27-24 at home vs New England. The Chargers visit the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, as the 3-5 Eagles return home for the first time since a 28-22 defeat against Tampa Bay on Oct 14. Since then, they lost 33-22 on the road to the Las Vegas Raiders, then posted a 44-6 victory at the 0-8 Detroit Lions last week. The 4-3 Chargers are a half-game back of the Raiders in the AFC West (Den and KC are 4-4), while the 3-5 Eagles trail the first-place Cowboys, who are 6-1 (7-0 ATS!). The NFC East was referred to as the NFC 'Least' in 2020, as Washington took the division with a 7-9 record, but the Cowboys are having 'none of that' so far in 2021.
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are both 4-4 and square off in this AFC/NFC matchup in Charlotte. The Pats are in Year 2 of the post-Brady era and in Year 1 of what the team hopes will be the Mac Jones era. New England opened 1-3 but has gone 3-1 its last four games, averaging a healthy 33.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina jumped out to a surprising 3-0 start but followed with FOUR straight losses, before getting back to .500 with a 19-13 win last Sunday in Atlanta. |
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11-06-21 | San Diego State v. Hawaii +7.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* CFB 'Late Show' is on Hawaii at 11:00 ET. The San Diego State Aztecs travel to 'paradise' for a Saturday game with Hawaii's Rainbow Warriors. SDSU opened the season 7-0, climbing imto the AP-25 rankings, with key wins over Utah (33-31), San Jose St (19-13 in 2 OTs) and Air Force (20-14). However, the Aztecs lost 30-20 last Saturday at home to Fresno St and fell out of the AP top-25. Maybe surprisingly, the Aztecs were ranked 24th in the first CFP ranking of the season (released this past Tuesday). Hawaii (4-5) has already played nine games and is hardly concerned with rankings but is just trying to get back to .500 with a win. Hawaii will play 13 games this season and bowl eligibility is a real possibility. The SDSU situation at QB is hardly a settled matter, although it looks like Johnson, who has started the last two games, has taken over from Brookshire. Neither have put up impressive numbers and it doesn't help that the SDSU receiving corps' leading receiver has only 17 catches. RB Bell has 66 yards on 4.8 YPC with 6 TDs and its running game 'drives' the offense, averaging 200.1 YPG (34th). The Aztecs are averaging 29.6 PPG, which is more than enough when the team's defense is holding opponents to 17.5 PPG (12th) on 305.1 YPG (also 12th). Hawaii QB Cordeiro is completing just 55.4% but has thrown for 1,706 yards with 10 TDs. Hawaii has nice balance, averaging 257.9 YPG passing and 157.7 YPG on the ground. The RB tandem of Hunter (558 yards / 7.2 YPC) and Parson (433 yards / 5.3 YPC / 6 TDs) is joined by all-purpose back Turner, who has 299 rushing yards (5.8 YPC and 7 TDs) plus is the team's leading receiver wit 52 catches (3 TDs). WR Mardner has 33 catches on 18.6 YPC with 3 TDs. The Hawaii defense is THE problem, allowing 33.9 PPG (114th) on 461.1 YPG (117th). Many fall into the trap of playing on a team that has opened with a winning streak of say six or seven games, coming off its first loss, assuming a bounce back. However, that is often NOT the case and I think the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This will be San Diego State’s THIRD road trip in four games and considering the opposite direction of travel, I believe there is a strong chance that the Aztecs could 'slip up' for a second straight game. Hawaii is 3-1 at home and note that in its three contests vs FBS opponents, the Hawaii defense is allowing 25.0 PPG, more than EIGHT points less than its season average. Grab those points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Tennessee +2.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryant era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. Losing the physical battle at No. 1 Georgia is one thing but doing so two weeks later at Mississippi State is another thing. The Wildcats lost 31-17 last Saturday in Starkville. Kentucky is aiming for a strong November that would put it in position for a good bowl berth. Head coach Mark Stoops didn't mince words when asked about last week's 31-17 loss at Mississippi State, "Played like crap," he said. "Not very many good things this past week for sure. Fell short in all areas. Not very pleased with our performance. Rough day at the office. They played harder than us, they were more physical." Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and wemt 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee and the Vols opened 4-2 but then lost a close one at home to Ole Miss (31-26), before wearing down in the fourth quarter at Alabama, allowing the game's final 21 points in a 52-24 loss. The Vols had last weekend off and now travel to Lexington to take on longstanding rival Kentucky. QB Hooker is a true dual threat, completing 68.7% for 1,578 yards with 17 TDs and just 2 INTS. He adds 416 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 4 TDs. RB Evans has 516 yards on 6.4 YPC with 6 TDs, as the Vols are averaging 225.4 YPG (10th) on 5.0 YPC. WRs Jones (31 catches / 14.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Tillman (30 catches / 14.9 / 4 TDs) are Hooker's best targets. The Vols are averaging a healthy 37.4 PPG (17th) but allow 26.5 PPG (71st). Kentucky QB Levis had a VERY poor game against Miss St (just 150 yards and three INTs) but has had a decent season (66.3% for 1,476 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs). RB Rodrigeuz has run for 809 yards (6.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and WR Robinson (58 catches / 11.1 YPC / 5 TDs) represent Kentucj\kty's key offensive performers. Kentucky averages PPG (27.0 PPG), 10 PPG less than Tennessee but its defense allows 20.8 PPG (34th) on 335.6 YPG (34th). Here's the history of this series. Kentucky won last year's meeting 34-7 in Knoxville, so the Wildcats are looking for their first back-to-back wins over the Volunteers since 1976-77. The Vols have won 31 of the last 34 games with the Wildcats and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Knoxville. Kentucky loses its third straight, while Heupel's team gets a much-needed win. The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game. Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Purdue at 3:30 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, as the Spartans and Boilermakers meet Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Michigan St comes in 8-0, including 5-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans are currently ranked 5th in the AP, the first time Michigan St has been ranked in the top-5 since 2015 (Michigan St made its lone CFP appearance that season). Purdue enters 5-3 (3-2 in the Big Ten but reminded all of its 'Giant-Killer' reputation by beating then-No. 2 Iowa on the road back on Oct 10, ending the Hawkeyes' 12-game winning streak. Michigan State is fresh off a big matchup vs Michigan. In that one, the Spartans pulled off an epic four-point victory, 37-33. The term 'epic' is NOT an overstatement, as MSU trailed by 16 points (30-14) in the third quarter. Michigan St QB Thorne had a modest 196 yards passing plus two picks but freshman RB Kenneth Walker ran for 197 yards and a whopping FIVE touchdowns. Thorne has had a solid season, completing 61.5% for 1,897 yards (15 TDs and 6 INTs) but Walker is having a Heisman-caliber season. He leads the nation with 1,194 yards on 6.8 YPC with 14 TDs. Thorne has a trio of WRs, all averaging 15.0-plus YPC. The trio consists of Reed (33 / 19.5 YPC / 5 TDs), Nailor (31 / 18.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mosley (21 / 15.3 YPC / 0 TDs). A quick look at the Michigan St defense shows them allowing 20.5 PPG (30th) but also 424.4 YPG (103rd!). The question may be, can Purdue's offense take advantage of a MSU defense that has allowed a lot of yards? O'Connell has taken over at QB for Plummer (7 TDs / 0 INTs) and while he's completing 71.0%, he's thrown nine TDs and eight INTs. Purdue has no one within 'miles' of Walker, as Doerue leads with just 363 yards (3.9 YPC / one TD). Purdue is averaging 80.5 YPG (127th) on 2.5 YPC. However, Purdue can move the ball through the air with WR Bell (53 / 14.8 YPC / 4 TDs) being among the best WRs in the nation. TE Durham has 36 catches (4 TDs) plus WRs Wright and Anthony have combined for 60 catches and four TDs. For Purdue to pull the upset, its defense will have to be the reason. The Boilermakers are allowing 17.1 PPG (10th) on 315.6 YPG (18th). Michigan St is off its HUGE comeback win over hated-Michigan and now must take on the 'SPOILERMAKERS.' After beating No. 2 Iowa on Oct 10 as an unranked team, Purdue has now beaten a team ranked in the top-two of the AP Top 25 as an unranked team for the NINTH time in program history, more than TWICE as many as any other school. Naturally, I'll take the points but I'm sending out an Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Auburn v. Texas A&M -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Texas A&M at 3:30 ET. The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday, with 6-2 Auburn getting ranked No. 13 and 6-2 Texas A&M settling in right behind at No. 14. As fate would have it, the Tigers will be in College Station this Saturday to take on the Aggies, a contest which is essentially an elimination game in the SEC West. Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC) trails Alabama (7-1, 4-1) for the division lead, with Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2), Ole Miss (6-2, 3-2) and Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2) all fighting to stay in the race as well. However, only Auburn and Alabama control their destinies to earn a spot in the SEC title game on Dec 4. If Auburn and Alabama win the rest of their league games heading into their meeting on the final day of the regular season on Nov 27, the winner of the Iron Bowl would head to Atlanta to play top-ranked and East Division champ Georgia. That said, this is definitely a "marquee matchup," as the Tigers and Aggies have both turned their seasons around after coming close to taking major steps backward this season. Texas A&M was ranked 7th in the nation when it lost 20-10 to Arkansas on Sep 25 and 15th when it lost its next game, 26-22 at Miss St. The Aggies fell out of the rankings but turned their season around with a 41-38 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9. A 35-14 win at Missouri and a 44-14 win over South Carolina have followed and as noted above, the Aggies are now No. 14 in the 1st CFP rankings. QB Calzada (just 55.3% for 1,364 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs) is no star but like Nix, he is backed by a strong running game. Spiller (761 yards / 6.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Achane (608 yards / 7.1 YPC / 5 TDs) lead a running attack that averages 188.3 YPG. A&M has no superstars among its receiving corps but WR Smith has 31 catches for six TDs and TE Wydermyer has 25 catches, averaging 14.1 YPC with four TDs. A&M's defense is actually better than Auburn's allowing 16.1 PPG (5th). A&M felt it was 'robbed' of that 4th CFP berth last season but knows a 'Final 4' appearance is NOT in the cards here in 2021, after two losses. However, A&M can still cap an impressive season if it keeps winning, not to mention spoil Auburn's shot at entering the Iron Bowl with a chance at the SEC West title (see above). A&M has played the tougher sked (#26 vs #53) and while Auburn is on a 10-18 run as a road underdog, A&M is 15-7 ATS at home since 2018, including 4-0 here in 2021. Auburn caught a 'tired' Ole Miss team last Saturday but that will NOT be the case here, as A&M is off a bye. A&M wins comfortably, by double digits! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Army v. Air Force -2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Air Force at 11:30 am ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights opened 4-0 in 2021 but if one looked more closely, the teams Army beat had a combined 3-13 (.188) SU record. However, Army has lost three straight since its perfect start, most recently to Wake Forest in a 70-56 final. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons opened the 2021 season 6-1 (lone loss was 49-45 at Utah St), before losing 20-14 to a then-unbeaten SD State team. The two service academies meet Saturday at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, with kickoff scheduled 30 minutes before high noon ET. Both teams own dominant running games, as Army rushes for 312.3 YPG (3rd) on 4.9 YPC, while Air Forces average 318.4 YPG (1st) on YPC. Neither team is effective throwing the ball and basically, passes are not a real part of either team's playbook. The big difference between the two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, as Army is allowing 27.7 PPG (80th), while Air Force is holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG (7th). Even more impressively, Air Force ranks THIRD nationally in allowing just 281.6 YPG. Air Force was 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS from 2006-16 but Army has won THREE of the last four meetings (also 3-1 ATS) but I won't ignore the fact that Air Force is a MONEY-MAKING 23-8 ATS over its last 31 non-conference games. The winner here claims the Commander-in-Chief's trophy and my bet says that Air Force takes it. Lay the short price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 82 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights Play is on Boston College 7:30 ET. A pair of 4-4 teams square off Friday night when the Virginia Tech Hokies and Boston College Eagles meet Friday at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Both have arrived at 4-4 taking different paths. Va Tech opened its season with a 17-10 upset of preseason No. 10 North Craolina and sat 3-1 before losing THREE in a row to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, ALL at home. Va Tech ended its three-game slide with a 26-17 road win at Ga Tech. Boston College, in Jeff Hafley's second season (6-5 in his first), opened 4-0 but has since lost ALL four of its ACC games to fall to .500. The slide began with a near-upset of Clemson but the last three wins have come by scores of 33-7 (NC St), 28-14 (Louisville) and 21-6 (Syracuse). |
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11-03-21 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State -3.5 | Top | 47-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* MAC Attack is on Kent St at 7:00 ET. MACtion began Tuesday night with three games and continues tonight with two more, as the Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Kent State Golden Flashes from Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio. NIU is led by third-year head coach Thomas Hammock, who went 5-7 in his first season and then 0-6 in the COVID-shortened 2002 season. However, NIU had nine starters back on offense and 10 on defense and the Huskies enter this contest on a five-game winning streak that has them at 6-2 overall, including 4-0 in the MAC-West. Kent's Sean Lewis is just 34 (youngest head coach at the FBS level) and after going 2-10 in his first season, led Kent to a Frisco Bowl win in 2019, as the team finished 7-6. Kent played just four games in 2020 (1-3) but while the Golden Flashes are just 4-4 in 2021, they are 3-1 and atop the MAC-East. This could be a MAC title game preview.
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 101 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET. The hiring of Mike McCarthy prior to the 2020 season was viewed as a "big deal" for Dallas. "America's Team" won THREE Super Bowl titles in a four-year span from 1992 through 1995 but has had little to show over the next 2 1/2-decades. QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending-injury in the team's fifth game in 2020 and even though the NFC East winner (Washington) was just 7-9, the Cowboys fell short with a 6-10 record. Entering this season, Dallas had made just 10 playoff appearances in the last 25 seasons, with zero appearances in the NFC championship game, no less a Super Bowl appearance or win. |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +5.5 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NE Patriots at 4:05 ET. The Pats lost Tom Brady to Tampa Bay for the 2020 season and while New England fell to 7-9, everyone knows that Brady led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win (his seventh). New England had hoped Cam Newton could regain his MVP form but that was NOT the case and in the 2021 draft took Alabama QB Mac Jones (more on him in a bit). The Pats outplayed but lost to the Dolphins in Week 1 and after a win over the Jets, got thumped at home 28-13 by the Saints. The Pats travel to LA for a game with Chargers, coming off their best effort of the season, albeit against the haliess Jets. |
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10-31-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Browns | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened with a 23-16 upset at Buffalo in Week 1 but then lost THREE in a row, However, the Steelers have rebounded to win two in a row to get back to 3-3. The Browns led KC almost the entire game in Week 1 but lost a close one. The Browns have since won four of six. The AFC South is a talented division in 2021, as the Bengals and Ravens are each 5-2. Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 252.5 YPG so far and his career average in 239 games is 258.3 YPG. He has just seven TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 88.0 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 388 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) and has added 34 catches, which is tied for 1st on the team, In Pittsburgh's two wins, he's run for 203 yards and a TD plus caught eight passes and another TD. The Steelers answered a sluggish start to the season by winning their two games before heading into the bye week. The Pittsburgh players showed a little 'pep in their step' in Wednesday's practice but WR Chase Claypool had a hunch as to why. "It might be because of the bye week that we have more energy and more fun, or it's because we're playing the Browns," Claypool said. "Either way, we're having more fun out there." Claypool (22 catches / 16.3 YPC / 3 TDs) is expected back after missing Pittsburgh's last game and will join fellow WR Johnson (34 catches / 3 TDs). This is NOT a great Pittsburgh D but it's solid, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 35.2 YPG (13th). Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. Mayfield rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), throwing just six TDs with three INTs. The Cleveland running game is No. 1 in the NFL at 170.4 YPG. Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC with four TDs) missed the team's last two games but is back here. However, Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs) missed last week as well and remains out. However, D'Ernest Johnson erupted for 146 yards with a TD in his first career start a week ago Thursday and is ready to support Chubb. Cleveland's receiving corps is far from healthy, as Hunt actually leads the team with 20 catches. TE Njoku has 17 catches, averaging a healthy 16.7 YPC but has just one TD catch. The Cleveland defense is allowing only 295.6 YPG (2nd) but allows more points than one would expect (23.6 PPG ranks 18th). Mayfield returns here after his injured left (non-throwing) shoulder and torn labrum kept him out of Cleveland's 17-14 victory over the Denver Broncos back on Oct 21. Chubb, who has missed Cleveland's last two games, is also back. Many are down on Pittsburgh but I'm a fan of Mike Tomlin, who has consistently gotten the most out of the hands he's been dealt. Heading into last year's playoff game, the Steelers had dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Can you say "pay back?" Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 7:30 ET. North Carolina went 8-4 last season and despite losing some key offensive performers (more later), the Tar Heels returned Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howll and 10 defensive starters. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll, the school's highest preseason ranking since being ranked No. 7 at the start of the 1997 season (in Mack Browns' first tenure at Chapel Hill). However, the Tar Heels 'limp' into South Bend unranked with a HUGELY disappointing 4-3. Notre fDame opened 10-0 last season before losing 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC championship. The Irish still made CFB's 'Final 4,' but lost 31-14 to Alabama in a contest in which the final score hardly reflected Alabama's domination of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly's team entered the current season with just three returning starters on offense and six on defense but was ranked No. 9 in the preseason (name recognition helps, huh?) The Irish have struggled at times this season (more below) but are currently 6-1 and hold down the No. 11 spot in the AP's latest poll.
Notre Dame is off a solid 31-16 win over USC last Saturday but the Irish have lost to their toughest opponent (24-13 at home to now-No. 2 Cincinnati) plus have won THREE games by just three points, over FSU in OT, Toledo and Va Tech. The team's 41-13 win at Wisconsin looks great on paper but Notre Dame actually trailed 13-10 in the fourth quarter of that contest. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special. He's completing 63.5% for 1,397 yards with 11 TDs and four INTs plus gets very little help from a running game that averages 106.7 YPG (117th!), after averaging 211 YPG on the ground last season. TE Mayer leads the team with 37 catches with WRs Austin and Davis hauling in just 22 and 20, respectively. The defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (not bad) but also not up to the standards of the previous three seasons (19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG). Here's the rub. This game is really a 'must-win" for North Carolina. The Tar Heels host 7-0 Wake Forest (No. 13) for a Homecoming game next Saturday and then play at 6-1 Pitt (No. 17) the following weekend. Those games won't mean much if the Tar Heels fall to 4-4 here. Not many teams have gone into South Bend and come away with a win in recent years (Bearcats are the exception) but this Howell-led offense is MORE than capable of outscoring the Coan-led offense, which gets NOTHING from its running game. Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* SEC Game of the Week is on Miss St at 7:00 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryany era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. The Wildcats got last weekend off (probably a good thing) and Saturday night travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi St Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2). |
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10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin (12:00 ET). Iowa's Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by four points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa opened the season No. 18 in the AP's preseason poll and ripped off SIX straight wins, three over ranked teams. Iowa was the nation's No. 2 ranked team when it saw its 12-game winning (10-2 ATS) streak end with a 24-7 at Purdue on Oct 16. The 6-1 Hawkeyes had a welcome bye last Saturday and visit Camp Randall on Saturday to face 4-3 Wisconsin. Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers had already lost TWICE and fallen out of the top-25. The Badgers lost 38-17 at home to Michigan to open October to fall to 1-3. Head coach Paul Chryst is in his seventh year at Madison and entered the season 56-19 with six bowl appearances (5-1) but the 2021 season was on the verge of slipping away. However, the Badgers have rebounded to win THREE in a row, including last Saturday's impressive 30-13 road win over then-No. 25 Purdue (fresh off its win over Iowa). Iowa relies on an outstanding defense, which is allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) on 301.1 YPG 12th), while forcing a nation-best 16 takeaways. Those takeaways have helped a poor Iowa offense to average 28.0 PPG. Iowa is averaging only 311.1 YPG (120th), including 116.9 YPG (103rd) on the ground. QB Spencer Petras completes just 59.5% for 1,333 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. RB Godson is solid (586 yards on 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but as a team, the Hawkeyes average a woeful 3.1 YPC. TE LaPorta is the only player with more than 20 catches, with 28 receptions and two TDs. Wisconsin QB Mertz is having a terrible season, completing 55.9% for 945 yards with two INTs and seven INTs. However, during the team's three-game winning streak, he's avoided missteps, throwing just one INT in 42 attempts. He's stepped out of the way and Wisconsin's two outstanding RBs (Mellusi and Allen) take over. Wisconsin has run for 879 yards in its three wins (293.0 YPG), with Allen topping 100 yards in all three and Mellusi in two of the three. On the season, Mellusi has 692 yards on 6.2 YPC with 4 TDs and Allen 428 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs. The Wisconsin D has been strong all season but in its three wins, has allowed only 27 total points. Wisconsin rush D ranks 1st in the nation, allowing only 53.3 YPG. Sure, after a bye week and a loss to Purdue, Iowa will be primed for a bounce back but Camp Randall is the WRONG place at the WRONG time for that to happen. Running the ball against Wisconsin seems like too big of a hill to climb and Petras is NOT the type of QB to win it with his arm. The 'savior' for Iowa would be for its defense to force Wisconsin into mistakes (TOs) but Wisconsin has not fallen prey to that these last three weeks. Wisconsin has won SEVEN of its last nine vs Iowa and it's Homecoming at Camp Randall. A Wisconsin win and the Badgers will be 3-2, tied with Iowa in the Big Ten West, plus will own the tiebreaker. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* NFC Game of the Week is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET. The defending champions Bucs are 6-1 (just 3-4 ATS) but many may feel that Tampa Bay is still the NFL's best team. However, the Thursday Night game between the 6-1 Packers (6-1 ATS) and 7-0 Cards (6-1 ATS) features a matchup of teams that are also staking a claim as being the NFL's best team (I can hear Dallas bettors crying, we are 6-0 ATS!). The Packers were steamrolled 38-3 by the Saints in Week 1 but have won SIX in a row both SU and ATS. However, Green Bay got some VERY bad news at the beginning of the week that WR Davante Adams.was placed on the COVID-19 list. As for the Cardinals, they are 7-0 for the first time since 1974 when they resided in St Louis and were guided by coaching legend Don Coryell.
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10-25-21 | Saints -4 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET. The Drew Brees era came to a close last season in New Orleans and the Saints are second-to-last in the NFL with 169.4 YPG through the air, well off the standard set by Brees and Co. The Saints are currently 3-2 and will likely be playing for a wild card berth as their 'ticket' into the postseason (The Tampa Bay Bradys are 6-1 to lead the NFC South). That said, compared to Seattle, New Orleans is 'cruising' in 2021. The 2-4 Seahawks are faltering at a level rarely seen over the past decade, as Seattle entered the current season having made the postseason in NINE of Pete Carroll's 11 seasons with Seattle, including EIGHT of nine times since Russell Wilson became the team's starting QB in his rookie season. QB Jameis Winston has just 892 passing yards but has 12 TD passes, and only three INTs (in 116 attempts) for a QB rating of 108.1 (his career QB rating is 86.1!). RB Kamara (368 yards on 3.9 YPC / just one TD) is also the team's leading receiver with 15 catches. However, WRs Harris (12 catches ) and Gallaway (13 catches) have modest reception totals, they've averaged 19.7 and 17.1 YPC, respectively. Defensively, the Saints are allowing just 18.2 PPG (4th-best). Seattle's woes have a lot to do with the loss of QB Russell Wilson (72.0% with 10 TDs and one INT plus a QB rating of 125.3) to a finger injury and starting RB Chris Carson (232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs with neck troubles that have forced him to miss the last two games. Geno Smith started last week at QB and completed 23 of 32 for 209 yards with one TD and zero INTs but he's NO Wilson! You think? Smith's fumble while being sacked in overtime led to Pittsburgh's winning score. Collins was the featured back and ran for 101 yards (5.1 YPC) and a TD. WRs Metcalf (31 catches / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Lockett (27 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) are excellent but that's when Wilson is the one throwing to them. Getting back to Collins, he came out of last Sunday's game 'beat up!' However, Seattle's offense is not Carroll's biggest concern. It's a defense that's allowing 433.2 YPG, dead-last in the NFL (32nd). After giving up more than 450 total yards in four straight games (that tied an NFL record), the Seahawks were better last week holding the Steelers to 345 yards. However, Seattle still hasn't held an opponent under 100 yards rushing (can you say a breakout game by Kamara?) and continues to get very little out of its pass rush (had zero sacks against Pittsburgh in the OT loss). The Saints are coming off their bye week and more than a few players will be back from injuries. New Orleans has been VERY kind to its backs on the road, going 36-15 ATS in its last 51 as the visiting side. The Saints will have no mercy here on the struggling home team in this one. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET. Week 7's SNF features two teams badly in need of a win. Indianapolis is 2-4 but plays in the weak AFC South. Tennessee leads at 4-2 but has to host the Chiefs on Sunday, off its MNF thriller over the Bills. In contrast, San Francisco is 2-3 and is stuck in the NFC West, which features the NFL's only unbeaten team (Arizona at 6-0) and the LA Rams, who are 5-1. That said, the team that loses here will see its playoff chances headed for 'life support,' even though the season has yet to reach its midpoint. The Colts have been consistently inconsistent this season but they're off a big 31-3 win over lowly Houston at home. The 49ers are hoping to bounce back after they lost 17-10 at Arizona in their latest matchup. That came two weeks ago, so they're now fully rested after their bye week, which really came at an opportune time early in the season. Carson Wentz, the former Philadelphia Eagles QB was acquired in the offseason that reunited him with Frank Reich, who was Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for Wentz's first two NFL seasons (2016-17). Wentz looked like he was headed to stardom when he threw a career-high 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2017 but his production went down after Reich departed to become the Colts' head coach. Wentz had just 16 TD passes and a career-worst 15 interceptions in 2020, losing his starting job to Jalen Hurts. However, reunited with Reich has worked out well, with Wentz completing 64.2% for 1,545 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (102.4 QB rating. In fact, Wentz is looking to throw multiple TD passes for the FOURTH straight game Sunday night. RB Taylor started poorly but has averaged 99.3 YPG over his last three, after rushing for 145 yards with two TDs vs Houston. WR Pittman leads with 31 catches but the bad news is that TY Hilton, who returned from a neck injury with four catches for 80 yards in his 2021 debut, has been ruled out. The Indy defense is solid, allowing 21.8 PPG (11th). San Francisco was on the verge of a QB controversy but Trey Lance, who started against Arizona, sprained his left knee in that game and was ruled out Friday. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting QB, as he returns from a calf injury that caused him to miss the Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "During the bye week, we made great strides," Garoppolo said Wednesday. "It will get better every day. Right now, it feels great." Jimmy G has completed 66.1% for 925 yards with five TD sand two INTs. Is he San Francisco's QB of the future? Not sure! The team's running game has been devastated by injuries but has still managed to average 122.0 YPG (12th). It won't help Jimmy G that George Kittle, the best TE outside of Kelce, remains out but WR WR Deebo Samuel had 71 yards from scrimmage and his fourth career TD run in Week 5 loss to Arizona, plus has at least five catches in four of five games this season (31 catches / 17.7 YPC / 3 TDs). The Nick Bosa-led defense (Bosa has five sacks, the most through five games for the franchise since Bryant Young had six in 2005) is allowing a modest 329.8 YPG (6th) but 23.8 YPG (16th)? Here's two contrasting trends. The 49ers are a horrific 0-9 their last nine as a home favorite (aren't they due?) but 11-5 ATS in non-conference games. Sometimes, when a team is rolling and on a win streak, a "bye week" can throw a proverbial "monkey wrench" into their well-oiled chemistry, but in this case, the bye came at a great time for a San Francisco team that opened 2-0 but has now lost THREE straight. "We could easily be sitting at 5-0 right now," 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. "Obviously, we're not. We're 2-3 but we go back and revisit every loss, you can find some good in that. There were some things where we could have won some games but we didn't take advantage of the situations." He may be exaggerating a little but the 49ers are NOT a sub-.500 team. Lay the short price as San Francisco moves to 3-3. Good luck...Larry |