20* Play on Oklahoma (-9).

20* Play on Auburn (-7).

20* Play on Michigan (-11).

20* Play on Mississippi (+28.5).

20* Play on Mississippi State (+8).

20* Play on Florida State (-7).

20* Play on Oklahoma (-27.5).

20* Play on Michigan (-10.5).

20* Play on West Virginia (-22).

20* Play on USC (-15.5).

25* Play on Alabama (-7)We backed Clemson last year in the National Championship Game to close out the year but we love backing Alabama early. While we are down on the SEC overall this season, the Crimson Tide are undoubtedly one of the best teams in the country and they always show up early. In the last five years, Alabama has started off their year with neutral field wins against Michigan (41-14), Virginia Tech (35-10), West Virginia (33-23), Wisconsin (35-17), and most recently USC (52-6). All of those wins came by double digits and they went 4-1 ATS in those contests. Bama only has six offensive starters returning and five on defense, however, the Crimson Tide simply reload on the defensive end of the field (no concern there) and they return key pieces from last year's offense including QB Jalen Hurts. Not too much bad to say about Florida State and we do expect them to be a top-ten team by year's end, but this is a bad spot for their first game of the season and believe the key match that favors Bama is FSU's offensive line. Don't believe they'll win that battle against a dominant Alabama defense, and when FSU falls behind that o-line is really going to be in trouble when the Seminoles become a primarily passing team. Alabama keeps their season-opening double-digit winning streak alive with an easy cover! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Alabama.

20* Play on Texas (-18.5). Can't think of a better choice than Tom Herman to turn around the Longhorns program. The new coach of the Longhorns was instrumental to Ohio State's offensive success, then immediately made an impact as the head coach of Houston. You may recall the Cougars upset a pair of #3 ranked teams last season - beating both Oklahoma and Louisville outright as double-digit underdogs. Herman will have this squad ready to go on day one and use this lopsided matchup to make a statement. After a pair of losing 5-7 seasons (with no bowl appearances), confidence has finally returned to Austin. Charlie Strong did not leave the cupboard bare with his departure, and we expect Texas to exceed expectations. Maryland has been a disaster since joining the Big Ten Conference, and are now relegated as the team that will beat Rutgers to close the season and then try to find a team in a bad scheduling spot to pull an upset. They didn't play a signature non-conference game last year, but the year before they were blown out by West Virginia by 39 points. No chance of Texas looking past this game to start the Herman era and with a non-threatening San Jose State team on deck. Texas dominates this one from beginning to end! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on Texas.

20* Play on Washington (-27). Huskies took some heat last year for playing an extremely weak non-conference schedule, and this year's non-conference slate isn't much better with Rutgers, Montana, and Fresno State (they also miss USC this year). What Washington did, however, was win 12 games and reach the College Football Playoffs. Chris Peterson began last year with a 48-13 home win against this Rutgers team (as 25-point favorites) - covering that big number by halftime and then cruising to the blowout win. This year they are an even bigger favorite despite playing on the road, and we don't blame the linesmakers for the adjustment as Rutgers really doesn't have much of a home field advantage. The Scarlet Knights 37.5 points per game last year, and that number jumps to 40.8 against Power Five opponents. Rutgers suffered four shutout losses last season and against a Washington defense that gave up just 17.7 ppg in an offensive-heavy conference, the Knights will have a tough time matching the 13 points they scored last year. Huskies have their eye on another trip to the CFP Playoffs, and with their weak schedule they will need to win by large margins to state their case. That begins this Friday with a blowout win! 20* Play on Washington.

20* Play on Oklahoma State (-17.5). No hesitation laying the points with Oklahoma State to open the season and we fully expect the Cowboys to cover this line with ease. Oklahoma State returns seven starters on offense including their dynamic Rudolph to Washington and by season's end the Cowboys should rate as one of the top offenses in the country. Oklahoma State showed no mercy in a 61-7 season-opening rout against SE Louisiana last season, but then suffered their infamous three-point "loss" against Central Michigan. That defeat will serve as a wake-up call to not overlook early overmatched non-conference foes, and with a game against South Alabama on deck there is no reason for the Cowboys to lose focus here. Tulsa is a solid team that won ten games last year, but they have a tendency to "give up" against their tough non-conference foes. Hurricane was blown out 48-3 last year at Ohio State and has allowed 48, 52, 52, and 51 points the last four years versus their signature Power 5 non-conference opponents. Sooners take this one in a blowout! 20* CFB "Thursday Night Thunder" Play on Oklahoma State.

25* Play on Clemson (+7). We were very impressed with Clemson's dismantling of Ohio State last weekend, and while we were under the impression we would be taking the winner of the Fiesta Bowl against Alabama in this Championship Game, the way the Tigers played against the Buckeyes combined with the amount of points Alabama is laying here really makes us like this play. Crimson Tide once again refused to throw the ball in obvious passing downs and let their defense win the game for them - a formula that has worked very well against a weak SEC Conference and an unworthy Washington opponent, but that formula will not work against this Clemson team. We have absolutely no faith in Alabama's passing game and while that obvious flaw has been masked all season long, it will finally come to fruition here. Clemson will be the best passing team Alabama will have faced this season by a wide margin, and that is how you have to attack this Alabama defense. Clemson will also be able to stack the box and make Alabama throw the ball - something they really haven't faced all year outside of the LSU matchup (and the Tide only scored 10 points in that game). Tide players have been reading the news stories proclaiming them as one of the best teams in College Football history. We don't buy that argument at all and strongly believe Clemson not only covers this generous number, but wins this game outright! 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Year Play on Clemson.

20* Play on Oklahoma (-2). Sooners have to be regretting their non-conference schedule. If they had scheduled weak non-conference foes - like Washington did - the Sooners would be almost certainly undefeated and one of the four teams included in the College Football Playoffs. Early losses against Houston and Ohio State had them out of contention before conference play began, but to their credit, they regrouped and ran the table in the Big 12, entering bowl season as one of the most underrated teams in the country. We love the Sooners in this matchup against an average Auburn team and believe Oklahoma will steamroll the Tigers en route to a blowout win and cover. Sooners one glaring weakness is their secondary, but Auburn's rush-heavy and one-dimensional offense isn't built to take advantage. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma is very balanced in their run-to-pass play calling, and we look for them to have success both on the ground and through the air here noting Auburn's defense was thoroughly outplayed against the better teams they faced this year. Sooners jump out to an early lead and never look back as they take this one by double-digits! 20* New Year's Day Special Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Wisconsin (-8). Fantastic job by Western Michigan this season, keeping a perfect record and earning a New Year's Day bowl bid. Unfortunately, their prize is a horrible on-field matchup against an underrated Wisconsin team, and we look for their dream season to come to a crashing halt Monday afternoon. Broncos literally ran through the MAC unscathed thanks to their powerful run game and aggressive defense, piling up 237 yards per game on the ground while forcing at least two turnovers on nine separate occasions. But they face an opponent in Wisconsin who is built to take on this type of game style. Badgers haven't allowed anyone to reach 200 yards rushing, and they faced some of the best rushing teams in the country (Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, and LSU). Wisconsin is also very good at holding on to the ball, and in their last five games combined they have just two turnovers. Badgers rush-heavy offense should have a huge game, facing a Broncos defense that allowed 4.7 yards per rush against a schedule that doesn't match up with Wisconsin's. Western Michigan forced teams to throw the ball when playing from behind, but here we expect them to have to deal with a powerful rushing attack all game long. Nothing for WMU to feel bad about - they did great getting here, but they are simply outmatched in this game. 20* CFB New Year's Day "Early Equation" Play on Wisconsin.

25* Play on Ohio State (-2). Never a good a idea to go against OSU head coach Urban Meyer in a bowl game, and with a little extra incentive with Clemson beating the Buckeyes a few years ago in the last meeting we look for the Buckeyes to win this game in a blowout. Buckeyes did look a little shaky down the stretch and some have questioned their inclusion to this playoffs, but over the course of the season they have proved worthy of their high ranking with three victories against teams currently ranked in the top 8, including a dominating effort on the road against an Oklahoma squad that ran the table in the Big 12. Clemson also deserves to be here, although they have taken a small step back from last year's team and have looked very bad defensively against every good offense they faced this season. Clemson's offensive stats are balanced, however they "run off the pass" and we're not sure they'll excel against this underrated Ohio State secondary. No worries for us about Ohio State scoring, as we note the only thing that slows down their offense is bad weather - something they won't have to worry about here. Much tougher schedule for Ohio State from top to bottom and we give an edge to the favorite on both sides of the ball. OSU average more points offensively, allowed fewer points defensively, and showed up to play in big games better than Clemson did this year - and we look for the Buckeyes to silence their critics with a double-digit win and cover Saturday night! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Louisville (+3). The linesmakers job is to set a line where the book can get equal action on both sides of the game - not necessarily what they believe the outcome of the game should be. In this context, it's not at all surprising that LSU is listed as the favorite here against Louisville, even with stud RB Leonard Fournette choosing to sit out and avoid injury prior to the NFL draft. After all, the mainstream sports networks have been talking about how great the SEC Conference is all season long, and in particular about how LSU is way better than their record shows. We've seen most of LSU's games this season, and that just isn't the case. Tigers are one-dimensional on offense with virtually no credible passing threat and while they are very good at stopping the run, they are susceptible in their secondary. Simply put, this is a decent team, but not a "good" team, and they need to play an opponent that matches up with their style of play in order to have a chance to win. Louisville doesn't fit that mode, and we look for the Cardinals to win this one by a surprising margin. Louisville's defense is built to stop the run, and on offense their passing game is set up for a huge statistical afternoon. Horrible on-field matchup for the favorite and the public perception is giving us tremendous line value here. 20* CFB Underdog of the Month Play on Louisville.

20* Play on Oklahoma State (+2.5). Colorado was exposed in their blowout loss against Washington - a team we are still not sold on - and while their overall 10-3 straight up record is quite good, a closer look at their schedule reveals they really haven't beaten an elite team all season long. Their best win in the eyes of the linesmakers came early in the season against an Oregon team that was later exposed as a fraud, and their next best win was a 10-5 snooze fest against a down Stanford squad. Oklahoma State's early "loss" against Central Michigan had this team out of contention pretty early, and while they ran the table in the Big 12 after the early Baylor loss all the way up until the Oklahoma game, the Cowboys were never on anyone's radar. We think Oklahoma State is the better team in this matchup, and we'll gladly take the points looking for the Cowboys to take this one outright. Colorado is good at stopping the run and is built for success in the Pac 12, but against a pass-happy Oklahoma State team the Buffs will need to score point here, too, and we're not convinced they can keep up. Colorado can and will move the ball on the ground here, but when they need to throw the ball they will get in trouble. Cowboys score points quick, and after a disappointing game to finish conference play, the hangover carries over as Oklahoma State takes this one outright! 20* CFB Bowl "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma State.

20* Play on South Florida (-10). South Carolina comes into this game as one of the most undeserving bowl teams we can remember in recent history. Gamecocks have been terrible all season long - and that comes in a year the SEC was way down from previous years. Linesmakers are begging for action on the underdog having the Power Conference team as a double-digit underdog, but we're not biting and we look for South Florida to run through this South Carolina squad en route to a blowout victory and easy ATS cover. Love the matchup of South Florida's powerful rushing attack that put up big yardage on everybody - including quality opponents like Florida State and Navy - and now faces a Gamecocks defense that was crushed on the ground all season long. South Carolina's stats are heavily skewed thanks to more than a few very easy foes, but when they faced good teams they were crushed (lost by double-digits five times this year) and they missed most of the good teams in the SEC this season. Complete mismatch on the field and South Florida puts the exclamation point on a miserable Gamecocks season this afternoon! 20* CFB Bowl "Early Equation" Play on South Florida.

20* Play on Tulsa (-12.5). We grade Tulsa as one of the most underrated teams in the country, and we'll back them on Monday afternoon to win in a blowout against a Central Michigan team that is extremely fortunate to even be bowl eligible. You may remember the Chippewas early-season "win" against Oklahoma State - that coming on a last-play, Hail-Mary then lateral on an un-timed down that shouldn't have been awarded in the first place. That "victory" ended up being the difference in bowl eligibility for Central Michigan, who fell apart down the stretch of the regular season with four outright losses in their last five games (three of those four losses saw Central Michigan lose outright while listed as the favorite). Tulsa is 9-3 on the season, and that record is even more impressive considering their three defeats were all on the road against the likes of Ohio State, Houston, and Navy. The Golden Hurricane has been a stat machine this year, racking up huge yardage both on the ground as well as through the air, and they have no problem running up the score against overmatched foes having five wins by at least 21 points. Tulsa will give up some points and yardage through the air, but their offense will face little resistance here as they pull away in the second half en route to a blowout win and cover! 20* CFB Bowl "Early Equation" Play on Tulsa.

25* Play on Houston (-4.5). Tom Herman led Houston to a 9-3 record with a pair of signature victories over a pair of Top-5 teams in Oklahoma and Louisville (those teams were ranked in the Top 5 at the time the games were played), however, Herman won't be on the sidelines this Saturday as he took the head coaching job at Texas. Major Applewhite will be roaming the sidelines for the Cougars in this bowl game, and this isn't like normal post-season coaching changes as Applewhite has already earned the head coaching label going forward. We do like how Houston has played this year in big games, and although they faltered in a few head-scratching upset losses this year, they certainly looked like they could hang with anybody in the country when it mattered most. Their Ohio-State offensive style that Herman brought over from Columbus fits very nicely with their personnel, and we like the matchup of Houston's offense, which has put up 38 ppg and 459 total yards per game with a balanced rushing and passing attack, against a San Diego State defense that has fallen apart down the stretch (over 40 ppg allowed last three games). On the other side of the ball, Aztecs are entirely dependent on their running game, and that's a problem here as they face a Cougars team that is third in the country at stopping the run, only allowing 98 rushing ypg on less than 3 yards per rush. This is a huge step up in class for San Diego State, who has been favored in every game this season, and we don't like their chances with the poor matchup with their rush offense. Cougars begin the Applewhite era with an easy win and cover, with their rush defense leading the way! 25* CFB Bowl "King's Ransom" Play on Houston.

20* Play on Wisconsin (-3). Odd matchup for the Big Ten Championship Game, with the eventual winner not guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff and the vast majority of people believe the two best teams in the conference to be Ohio State and Michigan. As it stands, both of these teams at least have a chance of grabbing one of the four playoff spots and we expect both teams to play as if a playoff spot is on the line. Not taking anything away from PSU's win against Ohio State, but they caught the Buckeyes in a horrible motivational spot (coming off an overtime road win at Wisconsin the week before) and needed two blocked kicks in order to win that game. They were also blown out by Michigan a few weeks prior, and haven't played a good team since that OSU victory. Wisconsin was very competitive against both Michigan and Ohio State, falling to the Buckeyes in overtime as well as staying within seven points of the Wolverines. They also beat LSU to open the year and dominated the stats in that victory. Not sure how Penn State plans to score here, as the Badgers don't budge defensively against the rush and are only giving up 13.7 ppg both overall this season as well as in conference play. On the other side of the ball, we expect Wisconsin's running game to have room to work - and while while Penn State has been able to stop the running game against the weaker teams they have faced, they gave up big yardage on the ground against quality foes. Badgers also have extra motivation to make up for the embarrassing 59-0 shutout loss two years ago - the last time they were in the Big Ten Championship Game - against an Ohio State team that went on to win the National Championship. Defense tends to win out in the Big Ten and that heavily favors the Badgers in this matchup. With the line as small as it is, we'll gladly lay the small number with Wisconsin as their defense leads them to victory! 20* CFB "Big Ten Championship Winner" Play on Wisconsin.

20* Play on Clemson (-10.5). Clemson Tigers are rightfully a big favorite in this matchup, and while we don't believe Clemson is the third-best team in the country (although we do believe they have earned that #3 ranking), we do believe they will beat an overrated Virginia Tech squad easily this Saturday and cover this big spot. Can't fault Virginia Tech for their schedule - they set up a game against what was supposed to be a good Tennessee team as well as Notre Dame, but both of those schools ended up falling well short of expectations. Hokies were blown out by the Vols by three touchdowns, and were three points better than the Irish. They also suffered bad losses against Syracuse (lost by 14 as a 22.5-point favorite) and Georgia Tech (lost by 10 points as 14-point chalk). Overall, there is nothing on VTech's schedule that implies they are capable of staying close to this Clemson squad. They have one victory against a team currently ranked in the Top 25 (that being a three-point win vs. #25 Pittsburgh), and they don't match up well on the field either. Clemson's defense has taken a big step backwards from last year's team, but their offense is still one of the best in the country. The game they lost they couldn't run the ball but still managed to put up 580 yards through the air and scored 42 points. We don't think Virginia Tech will be able to run much against the Tigers, and don't have faith in their passing game to move the ball consistently. This game might be close in the first half, but Clemson's big offensive advantage comes through when the defenses start to wear down, and the Tigers pull away for a lopsided win and cover! 20* CFB "ACC Championship Winner" Play on Clemson.

25* Play on Colorado (+7.5). Let's play the "what if" game momentarily and guess what would happen if Colorado and Washington had played each others non-conference schedules. Colorado certainly would have breezed through Rutgers, Idaho, and FCS Portland State (all at home) and would come into this game with an 11-1 straight up record. Washington would have beat Colorado State and Idaho, but would have had their hands full with a road game against Michigan and certainly would be listed as an underdog both at the time as well as now. The fact that Washington is such a large favorite in this game has everything to do with public perception and in no way takes in to account their strength of schedule. Both of these teams lost against USC, but even if we compare those games the Buffaloes played far better than the Huskies, with Colorado falling by just four points on the road while Washington lost by 13 at home (and the Huskies played far worse than that 13-point margin of victory indicates). Not only do we believe Colorado can easily cover this inflated number, but we give them an excellent chance of winning this game outright. Rushing and passing numbers on both sides of the ball are very similar, but Washington is has all the pressure on them as they are staring at one of the four invites to the College Football Playoff. That pressure tends to lead to conservative play-calling and a hard time to turn around momentum when it's lost. Colorado can build on the underdog mentality and take this line (as well as all the attention being paid to the Huskies) as a slap in the face. An outright upset wouldn't surprise us in the least, but we'll take the generous points as insurance. 25* CFB "King's Ransom" Play on Colorado.

20* Play on Florida State (-7.5). We backed the Florida Gators last week in a favorable matchup against LSU, and while we didn't think they would win outright, we did like their chances of staying within a big 14.5-point number. That outright victory by the Gators gives us great line value playing against them this week in a horrible matchup with Florida State. We liked Florida's chances of staying close to LSU in a game where neither team had any semblance of a passing threat. Florida's lone big pass play ended up being the difference, and while that 98-yard touchdown certainly was important, the Gators finished with just 46 yards passing outside of that one play. Much different opponent this week as Florida State can run, but has also put up 280 ypg passing this season (and their passing game is getting stronger as the season goes on). This is also a poor motivational spot for the Gators, who clinched their division last week and will thus be in a big letdown spot this week coming off that big upset win. Florida State is decent against the run and the Gators simply don't have the type of passing game to keep up with Florida State on the scoreboard. Gators didn't need to score many points to cover a big number last week - they need to score this week and we don't believe they will! 20* CFB Saturday Night Showdown Play on Florida State.

20* Play on West Virginia (-7). Huge overreaction by the linesmakers after West Virginia fell against Oklahoma last week, and while the Mountaineers are likely a bit sour after that defeat, they are still playing for a ten-win season and have plenty of motivation to play well here this Saturday. Not so for Iowa State, who has no chance of going bowling this holiday season, and if anything they are the team in this matchup with a huge motivational disadvantage coming off a 66-10 stunning rout of Texas Tech (as a three-point home underdog). That's two wins in a row for the Cyclones, who also beat up hapless Kansas the week before, but now they take a huge step up in class against an 8-win WVU squad that actually plays defense (unlike the Red Raiders and Jayhawks). Mountaineers are +95 in total yards per game in conference play while Iowa State is -36 in the same statistic - further evidence of how much better WVU is in this matchup. Too much line value to pas up and we'll take advantage of the soft line as WVU wins comfortably. 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on West Virginia.

30* Play on Kansas State (-27). Long time clients already know that we back Kansas State in their annual in-state clash against the Jayhawks each and every year, and will continue to do so as long as head coach Bill Snyder continues to walk along the Kansas State sidelines. Snyder has publicly stated in the past that he intends to run up the score in this game every chance he gets so the in-state recruits know which team truly runs the state. Snyder had covered the spread in 11 of the 12 meetings prior to taking a three-year hiatus from 2006-2008. Kansas won all three games in that span, but since Snyder returned in 2009 the Wildcats have won and covered the spread in all seven meetings. K-State isn't just winning and covering, they are completely blowing Kansas out of the water. in the last six years alone, Kansas State has outscored the Jayhawks 301-81 - an average score of 50-14! Riding a current 18-1 SU and ATS record in this series, there is no reason to stop backing Snyder in this annual matchup now. If anything, this game sets up even better for us as Kansas is in the ultimate letdown spot this week after somehow managing to upset Texas - arguably their biggest win in years. Everything points to another lopsided result this Saturday, and we'll back Kansas State s our strongest play of the season! 30* 2016 CFB Game of the Year Play on Kansas State.

20* Play on Maryland (-14). We successfully faded Maryland last week with the full intent of backing them this week. The theory was that Maryland was sitting one victory away from becoming bowl eligible, and they were saving their focus and energy for this final winnable game against Rutgers rather than game with long-shot odds vs. Big Ten powers Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska. Maryland only managed to score 13 points combined in those three blowout losses, and as a result this line is lower than it should be. Rutgers has been a joke this year going 0-8 in conference play while being outscored by an average of 41-9 in those games. They have been shutout four times this season! Two of those four shutouts came in the last two weeks, symbolic of the effort and motivation coming out of this team as the season winds down. Clear motivational edge to the home side with bowl eligibility at stake, and while Maryland couldn't run the ball with any success against the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Cornhuskers, they will be able to do some damage on the ground in this game. There is no tomorrow for the Terps so no reason for them to let up with a lead and let Rutgers back in the game. Rutgers likely won't be shutout for a third week in a row, but they don't stop Maryland's ground game and lose by yet another lopsided margin! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on Maryland.

25* Play on Ohio State (-6.5). The best rivalry in College Football will have even greater importance this time around as #2 Ohio State hosts #3 Michigan with the inside track at a College Football Playoff spot on the line. An upset by Michigan will put them in the Big Ten Championship Game, where they will enter that game as the #2 team in the country. A win by Ohio State will likely be the final game of the season for the Buckeyes, as a Penn State win vs. Michigan State will have them playing in the Big Ten Championship Game, however, holding on to their #2 ranking as well as a resume filled with victories against Michigan, Wisconsin (on the road), and Oklahoma (on the road) will likely be enough to take one of the four playoff spots. Buckeyes are a legit #2 team, only losing against another top ten team (Penn State) on the road thanks to a pair of blocked kicks, but we are not completely sold on Michigan being ranked as high as they are. Particularly troubling is the fact that Michigan has played all of their tough games at home, leaving their home state only twice all season - once against Big Ten doormat Rutgers and the other time against an average Iowa team -a game Michigan lost outright as a big 24-point favorite. Can't trust this Michigan team based on their road results as they not only face their toughest game of the season by a mile, but will do so with a huge question mark at the quarterback position. John O'Korn was far from impressive as Michigan finished with just 59 yards passing against a bad Indiana defense, and against an Ohio State secondary that can afford to play receivers in man-to-man coverage, the Buckeyes can now stack the box to stop the run. Regular quarterback Wilton Speight might be listed as "day-to-day", but that seems like window dressing more than a realistic chance of playing due to the severity of his injury. Michigan defense is for real, however, they play one of the better offenses in the country in Columbus. Ohio State has completely dominated this rivalry of late, winning 11 of their last 12 games outright including all four since Urban Meyer took over for the Buckeyes. Michigan is still a year away from challenging Ohio State for Big Ten supremacy, and this year the Buckeyes hold serve on their home field and win by a surprising margin against a wounded Michigan offense! 25* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Baylor (-5). Both Texas Tech and Baylor have had very disappointing seasons, however we love the on-field matchup for Baylor in this season finale and we'll back the Bears to snap a four-game losing streak and end their regular season with a much-needed win and cover. Texas Tech was blasted 66-10 as a three-point road favorite at Iowa State last week - not only suffering their sixth loss in seven games but more importantly securing a lack of a bowl berth for the Red Raiders. That has to be a heavy motivational blow for Texas Tech, who really have nothing to play for in this game. Once again, Baylor's lack of competition in non-conference play had them totally unprepared for their games against better competition, and a close-fought, one-point loss at Texas started a four-game losing skid where their defense was heavily exposed. The good news for Baylor is that they can rely on their running game here almost entirely, as Texas Tech has allowed over 200 yards on the ground in all seven of their losses. They have also given up at least 44 points in all seven defeats, and it seems like they literally don't even care about the defensive side of the ball. Baylor rushed for 368 yards and put up 63 points last year in this matchup, and we look for similar types of offensive numbers this time around. Texas Tech will be able to score some points as well with their passing game, but they don't have much of a running threat and when motivation is lost, mistakes tend to happen frequently (penalties, turnovers). This line is far lower than it should be because of Baylor's high-profile losing streak, and we'll jump on the line value backing Baylor to take this one by an easy double-digit margin! 20* CFB "Friday Night Showdown" Play on Baylor.

Good luck, and don't forget our 30* CFB Game of the Year kicks off at Noon ET this Saturday!

25* Play on Arkansas (-7.5). We have no idea what the linesmakers are thinking with this soft line, and we aren't entirely sure if they are giving Missouri far too much credit or not giving Arkansas enough credit, but either way we expect the Razorbacks to dominate the Tigers and take this one by no less than 20 points. The SEC has been extremely overrated all season long outside of Alabama, and Missouri has been an absolute joke both in conference as well as out of conference. Their three victories came against the likes of Eastern Michigan, Delaware State, and Vanderbilt. Ever since their 79-0 win against Delaware State, the Tigers have gone just 1-7 both straight up and ATS, including 0-5 SU and ATS as conference underdogs, losing by double-digits each time (They also allowed 51 points in a six-point home loss as a favorite vs. Middle Tennessee State). Defense has been a mess for Missouri, particularly in the running game and that is where we believe Arkansas can dominate this game. Razorbacks struggled against the better rush defenses they've faced, but when they could run the ball they not only won but won by big margins. That includes outright victories as underdogs against Mississippi State, Florida, Ole' Miss, and TCU - games where Arkansas rushed for at least 180 yards. Tigers are giving up 239 rushing yards per game on over 5.5 yards per carry, and in reality they are even worse than those numbers show if we take out their game vs. Delaware State. Razorbacks steamroll over the Tigers and take this one in a blowout! 25* CFB Friday King's Ransom Play on Arkansas.

Good luck, and don't forget our 30* CFB Game of the Year kicks off at Noon ET this Saturday!

20* Play on LSU (-7). Regular clients already know that we are not high on this year's LSU squad - in fact we faded them last week in their outright loss against Florida as a big 14.5-point home favorite. The Tigers don't match up well against good defensive teams as their offense simply isn't reliable and LSU is often asked to cover pointspreads that require them to score more than they are able to. That isn't the case this Thursday, however, and we look for the Tigers to bounce back and win by a big margin against a vastly overrated Texas A&M team that is in the midst of a free fall. Aggies were one of the top four teams in the country according to the College Football Playoff Committee at the start of this month, and while A&M should never have been ranked that high in the first place, not many foresaw the Aggies imploding this month. Bad losses against both Mississippi State and Ole' Miss as well as a pedestrian 23-10 win (as a 25.5-point favorite) vs. UTSA has the Aggies limping into this high-profile showdown, and to make matters worse for the home side the Aggies do not match up well at all vs. the Tigers. A&M needs to run in order to be successful on offense. When they rush for more than 180 yards, they are a perfect 8-0 straight up. Anything less than that number and they are winless in three chances. Alabama was one of those defeats, which wasn't all that surprising, but falling against both Mississippi teams was a bit of a shock. LSU is one of the best rush defenses in the country, only giving up more than 134 yards on the ground twice all year (Auburn and Alabama), and those two teams combined for 100 rush attempts to do so. On the other side of the ball, Tigers offense is entirely dependent on their running game (something we didn't like last week vs. Florida), and here they face an Aggies defense that has allowed 280+ yards rushing in three of their last four conference games. Confidence lacking on the home side and we expect A&M's struggles to continue as the Tigers control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win easily! 20* CFB "Thanksgiving Feast" Play on LSU.

Good luck, and don't forget our 30* CFB Game of the Year kicks off at Noon ET this Saturday!

25* Play on Oklahoma (-3). The Sooners season couldn't have started worse, losing to Houston and Ohio State before conference play began, but Oklahoma has rallied and has really dominated the Big 12 after that poor start. Sooners come into this game a perfect 7-0 straight up while scoring 48 ppg in Big 12 action, and have climbed back into the Top Ten in all three major polls. West Virginia is underrated by the pollsters in our opinion, however, this is a bad matchup for the Mountaineers and we expect Oklahoma to keep their undefeated conference record in tact by the end of the night. WVU is coming off a road win at Texas, but a closer look at the stat sheet reveals the Mountaineers were very fortunate to come away with a victory. WVU was out-rushed 218-114 and out-passed 318-269. And according to the linesmaker (and us), that game vs. Texas was their toughest to date. West Virginia has all of their toughest games back-loaded at the end of their schedule, and now it's put up or shut up time. Sooners far more tested and have a massive edge on both sides of the ball in the running game. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the Sooners take this one by more than two touchdowns! 25* CFB "King's Ransom" Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Florida (+14.5). On Thursday night, we took Houston at +14.5 in a matchup we felt the Cougars offense matched up well enough to keep them in the game. Houston's offense went off while Louisville fell flat and lost by a huge margin. In this Florida vs. LSU matchup, we have the opposite, as we expect Florida's defense and LSU's lack of a credible passing game to have a huge impact on this ATS decision. Far too high of a line for LSU to be asked to cover here considering they are only scoring 26 ppg in conference play and facing a defense that is only giving up 16 ppg in conference play. Even if LSU matches their average scoring output (which we don't think they will), they would need to do better than their average defensive scoring numbers of 14 ppg in order to cover. It's not really LSU's fault that they are just 1-8 ATS on the season - they have been overvalued by the linesmaker all season long and continue to be despite their results. We don't have much love for either of, these teams, although they would each be very good if they could do anything offensively through the air. Florida doesn't have much of a passing game but they are still far better than LSU in terms of passing offense, and in a game where rushing yards will be hard to come by on both sides of the ball, that edge in the passing game will be more than enough to keep this game within one score for most of the 60 minutes. We do think Florida has a chance to win this game outright, although an LSU outright win at home seems more probable. Still, Florida's defense is too tough for the Tigers to amass a big lead, and unless the Gators commit a number of turnovers, they'll stay well within this big number. 20* CFB "Underdog Shocker" Play on Florida.

20* Play on Nebraska (-13.5). This is the time of the season where motivation plays a huge role in terms of bowl eligibility. Maryland is coming off back-to-back embarrassing blowout losses, falling 59-3 at Michigan and then 62-3 last week at home vs. Ohio State. Nebraska isn't quite at the level of those two teams, but still far better than the Terps and that's especially true with Maryland playing the role of the visitor where they are 0-3 both SU and ATS in conference play, allowing 38+ points in each game. Maryland is one victory away from becoming bowl eligible, and with a home date coming up next against Rutgers it would make all the sense in the world for the Terps to be concentrating on next week's game instead of this one. Nebraska has some health issues at quarterback, but that's not a big deal in this matchup as their running game is all they need. Terps have given up over 225 yards rushing in each of their last six game, and we look for the Cornhuskers to wear down a disinterested Maryland team as the home side rolls to a blowout! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on Nebraska.

20* Play on Houston (+14.5). A pair of upset losses against Navy and a shocking defeat against a bad SMU team has the Houston Cougars completely off the radar of the linesmakers, who give the Cougars little to no chance of winning this game at home against Louisville. That's a dangerous move, as this is the same Houston team that has a prolific offense in the style of Ohio State and has already upset Oklahoma this year. Additionally, Louisville now has all the pressure on them in this game, playing in front of a national audience after a slew of upsets last week have them back in the hunt for a College Football Playoffs spot, while Houston has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain. This game is all about offense, and while the lack of quality competition for both teams means the defensive numbers look better than they actually are, Houston's offense is potent enough to stay close in this game. Louisville looked great against what is now considered to be an average Florida State team, but were torched for 500+ total yards and 42 points in a loss against a good Clemson squad. Also notable is Louisville's defensive numbers on the road, which are not great in all games except for the offensively-inept Boston College Eagles. Houston has covered the spread in seven straight games when listed as the underdog, and this is far too high of a price to lay against a superior offensive team playing on their home field. Cougars may not win this game outright, but we give them a better chance to do so than the linesmakers and we fully expect this game to be decided by single digits. 20* CFB "Thursday Night Thunder" Play on Houston.

20* Play on Texas A&M (-10). Aggies were exposed last week in their outright loss at Mississippi State (as a ten-point road favorite) and have now failed to cover the pointspread in each of their last five games. That being said, we like the Aggies to bounce back this week against a very bad Ole' Miss squad that has dropped four straight games at the betting window and have lost each of their last three conference games outright. While Texas A&M has lost two of their last three games overall, it's worth noting that both of those defeats came on the road and against very good rush defenses. A&M was ranked #4 in the initial CFP standings, and while that decision was mocked nationally, their loss last week has the public mocking their initial high ranking. That type of coverage can really motivate a team, and this is the perfect opponent for A&M to beat up and silence their critics. Rebels have given up 34+ points in each of their last three conference games and more importantly for this matchup they have allowed 200+ yards rushing in each of their last four contests. Aggies are able to run and pull away in the second half against an overmatched Rebels defense! 20* CFB SEC Game of the Month Play on Texas A&M.

25* Play on Washington (-8.5). With a 6-3 straight up record, USC isn't considered an elite team this year. But don't tell that to Washington's fan base, who will treat this game as a huge marquee matchup as Washington looks to keep their grasp on a College Football Playoff spot. Washington moved up to the fourth and final place in the latest CFP rankings, and while Ohio State was said to be very close to the Huskies, Ohio State and Michigan play each other later this year so the Huskies basically control their own destiny from here on out. Trojans have won five straight to turn their season around, but we're not convinced they are as good as that winning streak suggests. USC was favored in all five of those games, including double-digit favorites in each of their last three. Huge step up in class this week for the Trojans and against a team brewing with confidence and in front of what will be an insane home crowd. Washington has been an underrated home team thanks to their defense over the past few seasons, and that's true again this year as they are only allowing 10.6 ppg on this field. USC is just 1-3 straight up on the road (lone win came as a 14-point favorite at Arizona) and will have a very tough time getting anything done through the air. People have questioned if Washington is really good enough to deserve a spot in the playoffs, and they prove their case Saturday night! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Washington.

20* Play on Penn State (-7.5). In a conference stacked with big name schools like Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, it's no wonder the Nittany Lions have been overlooked this year, but ever since their upset win against the Buckeyes this Penn State team is playing extremely confident and has climbed in the polls. PSU still isn't garnering the proper respect from the linesmakers, however, and will jump on this line value Saturday afternoon against the Indiana Hoosiers. Great on-field matchup here for the visitor, as PSU has a big edge in the running game on both sides of the ball. Indiana can't win if they can't run - going 5-0 straight up when they rush for at least 147 yards and going 0-4 straight up when held to 115 rushing yards or fewer. Add in a huge motivational disadvantage to the home side with Big Ten leader Michigan looming next week for Indiana (PSU has no such scheduling disadvantage) and we expect Penn State to control this game from the outset and cruise to the easy win and cover! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on Penn State.

20* Play on Oklahoma (-17.5). It's the same story about Baylor every time around this time of the year - the Bears laughably weak non-conference schedule has this team completely overrated based on statistical numbers and straight up record, and as soon as they start to finally play against quality teams the Bears are not able to compete. After a "grueling" first month of the season against Northwestern State, SMU, and Rice (Baylor was favored by no less than 34 points in each of those three games), the Bears opened Big 12 play with a fairly easy road up until a few weeks ago. Bears have been listed as the favorites in every game played so far this year, but they have lost their last two games outright at Texas and then at home vs. TCU. Now they face the class of the Big 12 this week and on the road no less, and we fully expect Oklahoma to completely dismantle Baylor on the home field. Bears have allowed over 200 yards rushing five separate times this season (431 rushing yards allowed in their previous game vs. TCU) and Oklahoma will no doubt be able to take advantage. And while Oklahoma did beat Baylor by 10 points last year (as a small road underdog), the Sooners haven't forgot about the last time these teams played here in Oklahoma when Baylor ripped the Sooners 48-14. Oklahoma was quietly been a very good team in an average overall conference after their two high-profile non-conference defeats, and are set up great here to hand Baylor a blowout loss. 20* CFB "Watch Party" Winner Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Florida State (-21). At first glance, it seems like the line is too high in this BC-FSU matchup, as Florida State is in a down year - already with three losses on the season and a number of their victories coming by small margins. This is certainly a trap line set by the linesmakers begging for action on the visiting underdog, but we're not biting and we fully expect Florida State to have their biggest blowout margin of the season vs. a FBS opponents (Florida State beat FCS Charleston Southern 52-8). Boston College is scoring just 12 ppg in conference play while allowing 36 ppg - an difference of 24 ppg which is more than this number, and Florida State is certainly better than the average ACC team. More importantly, the Eagles lack a legitimate passing threat, which has been Florida State's biggest weakness overall this year. Clearly frustrated this season, this is the perfect chance for the Seminoles to take that frustration out on an overmatched opponent, and with a national audience watching we are looking for FSU to run out to a big lead early and never take their foot off the gas pedal. BC lost by 45+ points against Clemson and Louisville, and another lopsided defeat looms this Friday! 20* CFB "Friday Night Showdown" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on Utah (-5). Utes played well in a seven-point loss (but ATS cover) against the current #4 team in the country their last time out - Utah's second loss of the season. We expect a bounce-back effort here playing with more rest than usual against an overrated Arizona State team, and expect Utah to win this game by a comfortable margin. Good line value with the Utes being the visitor this Thursday and coming off that loss, but Utah has a strong on-field matchup edge with their powerful running game going up against a weak ASU rush defense. Utes have put up over 200 yards on the ground in four straight games, and are averaging a bit over 250 rypg away from home this season. Arizona State's defensive rush numbers look good on paper, but that is due to a weak non-conference schedule and a number of teams that crushed them through the air. The two best running teams they faced torched them on the ground, with Colorado going for 315 rushing yards and Oregon 245 - games ASU failed to cover the spread by double-digits in each blowout defeat. Utah controls the game on the ground and wins big! 20* CFB "Thursday Night Thunder" Play on Utah.

25* Play on Alabama (-7). The dominance of the Crimson Tide is a combination of Alabama being very good this year along with the rest of the SEC (Texas A&M included) being vastly overrated. No reason for this line to be as low as it is, even given the series history and the fact that LSU has home field advantage. Teams that have any hope of upsetting the Tide need to be able to stop the run and throw the ball. LSU has half of that formula with their rush defense, but does not have the offensive weapons to score on Alabama's defense. Tide basically load the box and dare teams to beat them through the air. Alabama won this game by 14 points last year as a similar favorite, and we expect them to best that margin of victory tonight! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Alabama.

25* Play on Clemson (-4.5). We haven't been the biggest fans of Clemson this season, and don't believe they are the third best team in the country, but we do like them in this matchup against Florida State and we believe they'll easily cover this soft line against an overrated FSU squad. Seminoles never really recovered from their blowout loss against Louisville, and have since lost outright here at home against North Carolina while also playing relatively close games against both Miami FL (won by a single point) and Wake Forest. Big edge to the Clemson offense in this game and we look for the Tigers to have success both on the ground and through the air here. FSU's offense is nothing like the team that went to the College Football Playoffs a few years ago and can't keep up here. Playing at home in a nighttime setting will help the Seminoles but that by itself is not enough to overcome their poor defensive matchup. FSU has allowed 34+ point four times already this season, and we expect that number to climb by one as the Tigers steamroll FSU and pull away late for an easy win and cover! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Clemson.

20* Play on Tennessee (-14). Regular clients already know we don't have a high opinion on Tennessee, as we've faded them a few times already this season. But we love the Volunteers this week against a horrible South Carolina team, and expect the Vols to win this one in a blowout. Tennessee finally ran out of luck in a close loss at Texas A&M a few weeks back (their first loss of the season), and then they were completely annihilated at Alabama the following week. UT followed up those two losses with a much-needed bye to prepare for this game, and we expect the huge drop in class to allow the Volunteers to finally win a game by a comfortable margin. South Carolina is just 1-4 straight up in conference play (0-4 their last four) and have not scored more than 14 points in any of those five games. Big matchup edge in this game is the Tennessee rush offense against a horrid Gamecocks defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards per game on 5 ypr. UT's offense sputters when they can't run the ball and are forced to throw - but won't be an issue here. Vols take out their aggression for the last two losses on an overwhelmed Gamecocks offense as Tennessee wins this game by 20+ points! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Tennessee.

25* Play on Wisconsin (-8). Nebraska comes into this high-profile showdown ranked #7 in the country and still owning a perfect record. Wisconsin is just behind them in the polls, coming in at #11 despite having two losses. But the Badgers are a big favorite on their home field, and we like Wisconsin's chances of winning this game by a big margin. Nebraska may be unbeaten, but they have faced very little in terms of quality competition - their toughest opponent to date is arguably Oregon - a game the Cornhuskers won at home by a slim three-point margin. And that game vs. the Ducks was a much better matchup for the Cornhuskers, as they now have to face a Wisconsin team that is very tough against the run, negating Nebraska's only consistent offensive attack. Badgers have lost twice, but those games were both competitive against very good foes Ohio State and Michigan (back-to-back weeks no less). Hosting the #7 team in the country won't have the Badgers intimidated after playing those two teams well. Nebraska gave up over 300 yards rushing against Oregon and figure to be in for a long night trying to stop Wisconsin's running game here. Nebraska loses this game big to fall into the late teens in the rankings where they honestly belong! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Wisconsin.

20* Play on Oklahoma (-40). When the Jayhawks nearly upset TCU at home a few weeks ago (lost by a single point), that result turned a few heads around college football. But Kansas wasn't able to build on that game, and have lost by blowout margins of 42 and 24 points since. Now they take on the best team in the conference this week, and more importantly Kansas is the visitor. Jayhawks have been blown out in all three games away from home this year, falling by 36, 36, and 42 points while not even coming within a touchdown of covering the spread in those three games. Sooners have a couple of tough matchups ahead in their quest for a perfect conference record, but those games aren't until the final two weeks of the season. Nothing taking away focus this week, and with the Sooners putting up well over 800 yards of offense last week, we look for this one to get out of hand fast. Big number this week for Oklahoma, but they still cover it with ease! 20* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month Play on Oklahoma.

25* Play on Alabama (-17.5). Both Texas A&M and Alabama come into this Saturday's showdown with perfect records, but the Crimson Tide are clearly the superior team here and match up very well against the Aggies. Texas A&M features a rush-heavy offense that will not be able to control the line of scrimmage against this stout Alabama rush defense. On the other side of the ball, the Aggies are not good at stopping the run and Alabama should be able to have a massive edge in the ground game on both ends of the field. Both of these teams played Tennessee in their most recent game, with A&M scoring a 45-38 win in overtime while Alabama won 49-10 on the road. That is a perfect snap shot of how different these teams are, and we look for the Tide to cover this big trap line with ease! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Alabama.

20* Play on Indiana (+3). Horrible spot here for Northwestern, who are caught in a letdown - look-ahead sandwich. The Wildcats scored back-to-back upsets against Iowa and Michigan State in their last two games, and have big showdowns against Ohio State and Wisconsin the next two weeks. That type of schedule leaves little room for concentration on the task at hand, and while Indiana is only 3-3 on the season they have played far better than that record indicates. The Hoosiers held their own against the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers, and while Northwestern finally put some numbers on the scoreboard the last two weeks they are still not what we would consider a "good" scoring offense (their offensive yardage did not match their scoring output the last two weeks). Indiana takes advantage of a weak NW secondary and wins this game outright as the Wildcats can't match the effort of their last two games! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on Indiana.

25* Play on Ohio State (-10.5). This is the first matchup between these teams since they met in the Big Ten Championship Game two years ago. You may recall the Badgers were a 4-point neutral field favorite in that game and were demolished 59-0 as the Buckeyes went on to win it all. Buckeyes won't be an underdog this time around and certainly won't win by a near 60-point margin, but we do expect Ohio State to win this one by a surprising margin once again. Linesmakers are begging for action on the underdog with this high line, but we're not biting. Badgers don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with an Ohio State offense that is averaging 53 ppg, and while Wisconsin's defense has been great so far this year, Ohio State is doing even better, including the all-important stats of ppg and ypg. Buckeyes proved they can handle hostile environments with a convincing win and cover at Oklahoma - this is a different test as the Badgers don't have the type of offense Oklahoma does. Michigan proved you can run on this Badgers team, and we believe they certainly will. Too much talent on the Buckeyes sideline as they take a commanding lead early and never look back in a blowout! 25* CFB "King's Ransom" Play on Ohio State.

25* Play on Alabama (-13.5). Tennessee's luck finally ran out last Saturday, although they did have another incredible fourth quarter surge to force overtime, eventually falling by seven in overtime. That loss punctures the "sense of invincibility" that has surrounded this Volunteers program all season long, starting in Week 1 when they needed a missed field goal, missed extra point, and a recovered fumble in the end zone to get past Appalachian State. Now they face the top-ranked Crimson Tide, and the Vols don't have a prayer to stay close. Alabama will be able to run all over this Tennessee defense, and while the Vols passing game is decent, Tennessee also has a habit of committing turnovers, which is a huge determent against this Alabama defense that is forcing more than 2 TO's per game on the season. Vols high ranking means Alabama will take this game very seriously, and we give a big matchup advantage on both sides of the ball to the #1 team in the country. Alabama wins this one big! 25* CFB "Clash of the Champions" Play on Alabama.

20* Play on Arkansas (+14). Crimson Tide play their second true road game of the season this Saturday and are a heavy favorite to get past Arkansas. Alabama should win this game outright, however, we look for this game to be very close throughout and for the Razorbacks to stay within a touchdown at the final whistle. Arkansas has covered the spread against Alabama each of the last two years, including a slim one-point loss the last time these teams met up on this field. Tide should have lost their only true road game this year if not for an absolute implosion by Mississippi in the second half. Alabama to their credit played very well in their comeback victory, but showed they were susceptible against the pass and not at all invincible away from home. Arkansas has the balanced offense that matches up well with Alabama - having enough of a rushing threat that the Crimson Tide can ignore while also having enough firepower in their passing game to do some real damage. If the Razorbacks rush defense was better we could give them a chance of winning outright. Don't expect the outright upset be we do expect a very close final score as Alabama struggled from beginning to end! 20* CFB Shocker of the Month Play on Arkansas.

25* Play on Texas A&M (-7). This selection isn't "on" Texas A&M so much as it is "against" Tennessee, who continues to press their luck. Last week it was a Hail Mary on the final play of the game to get past Georgia (missing their top offensive weapon), but we fully expect their luck to finally run out this week on the road against the Aggies. Texas A&M is easily the best passing team Tennessee will have faced to this point, and the Vols secondary has not put up very good numbers against rush-heavy offenses. Add in the obvious look-ahead spot with Alabama looming on deck (Texas A&M has a bye before playing the Crimson Tide), and this is an horrible motivational spot for the Volunteers. Linesmakers rightfully had Texas A&M as a clear favorite early in the week, but then the line shifted as Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd is now listed as doubtful. Aggies expose Tennessee for the average team they really are and win this one by a landslide! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Texas A&M.

20* Play on TCU (-28.5). We successfully faded both of these teams last weekend, with Kansas losing by 36 points on Thursday night against a high-octane Tech Tech offense, and TCU making a strong fourth-quarter rally but still coming up six points short against Oklahoma. While we didn't like TCU's chances of holding down an angry Oklahoma team last Saturday, we love the spot they are in this week, and look for them to hand Kansas yet another blowout defeat. TCU has scored a minimum of 33 points in every game played so far, and will not take the field angry (much as Oklahoma did against them last week) after suffering their second loss of the season. Kansas hasn't shown the ability to do anything defensively against a credible opponent, and gave up nearly 550 yards through the air last week vs. the Red Raiders. TCU's passing game can do as they please, and with nothing to take away their focus on their immediate schedule they come close to covering this number at half time and cruise to an easy win and cover! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on TCU.

25* Play on Oklahoma (-3.5). Sooners could not make a statement early this year against a stacked non-conference schedule, losing against Houston and Ohio State and they now find themselves entering the month of October with a losing record. But we don't believe either of those two losses should be cause for concern - this is still a premier team and in our opinion the best team in the Big 12 Conference. Linesmakers are begging for action on TCU in this game, installing the #21 Horned Frogs as an underdog despite playing an unranked opponent and playing the role of host. We're not biting, and instead we'll look for Oklahoma to win this game by a surprising margin. TCU is 3-1, losing against Arkansas and having all three wins against inferior competition (was favored by more than 20 points in all three victories). Sooners had an extra week of rest to prepare for this game and will treat it like the "make-or-break" game that it is. TCU's defense has a number of issues that have been masked by a weak non-conference schedule, but they get exposed this Saturday! 25* CFB Trap Game of the Year Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Florida State (-10.5). We backed the Seminoles last week in their blowout win and cover against South Florida, taking advantage of the huge overreaction by the linesmakers to FSU's infamous loss against Louisville. Vegas still isn't convinced FSU is a good team, and we'll back the Seminoles to cover another soft line this Saturday against North Carolina. Tar Heels can't stop anyone on the ground, allowing a minimum of 182 yards rushing in all four games and twice allowing over 280. FSU more than capable of controlling this game from the outset without having to put the ball in the air, and we expect a huge rushing effort from the favorite in another blowout win and cover! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on Georgia (+3). Tennessee has been playing with fire all season long, and remain highly ranked despite some needing a number of fortunate bounces to go their way to keep their perfect record. Vols should have lost outright at home against Appalachian State to start the year (won in overtime) and also struggled against Ohio U. Those results can be directly attributed to lack of focus and motivation, and they find themselves in a horrible motivational spot this Saturday not only playing their first true road game of the season, but also coming off a "feel-good" win against a Florida team that has had their number for over a decade. Georgia will be looking to come out strong after last week's embarrassing lopsided loss, and matches up well here with their strong running game. Bulldogs weakness is in their secondary, but we don't like Tennessee's passing game and don't believe the Vols can capitalize on that weakness. Georgia wins this one outright, but we'll take the points as insurance! 20* CFB Underdog of the Month Play on Georgia.

20* Play on Texas Tech (-28.5). Kansas fans stormed the field after the Jayhawks beat FCS Rhode Island in their season-opener, but since then it's been "typical" Jayhawks football with an outright favored loss at home against Ohio U (by 16 points) and then a 36-point blowout at Memphis. No reason to think Kansas can stay competitive on the road tonight against a Red Raiders squad that has scored 55+ points in all three games - especially with this game taking place at Texas Tech. Kansas just 2-10 ATS as an underdog and were nowhere close to covering a big 20-point spot their last time out, and a rested Texas Tech team with no look-ahead spot in play wins this one in a blowout! 20* CFB Thursday Night Thunder Play on Texas Tech.

20* Play on Michigan State (-4). Both Wisconsin and Michigan State come into this Big Ten opener after already securing signature non-conference victories. And while the Badgers two-point home win against LSU was impressive, Michigan State completely dominated Notre Dame on the road for the better part of three quarters - then playing against the clock in the final quarter and holding on for an eight-point win. Spartans can stop Wisconsin's rushing attack which renders their offense useless. Badgers scored just 16 points in their win against LSU, but will need much more than that to upset the Spartans. MSU better on both sides of the ball, and with home field advantage they take this one by double-digits! 20* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on Florida State (-5). South Florida has done well in the role of big favorite - winning and covering all three of their games this season while putting up 45+ points in all three victories. But those lopsided wins against inferior competition (USF favored by double-digits in all three matchups) only gives us better line value this Saturday backing a Florida State team that was outright embarrassed last week vs. Louisville. FSU was never good enough to be ranked #2 in the country, but they are certainly better than last week's 43-point blowout makes them out to be. FSU will be able to run at will here, and the motivational edge by the visitor looking to make up for last week's disaster combined with this very low line results in an easy cover by the Seminoles! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on Texas (-7). These teams entered this season with completely different expectations. This was the "make-or-break" season for Texas head coach Charlie Strong, and he delivered so far with an upset win against Notre Dame and followed that up with a 36-point blowout against UTEP - avoiding the obvious letdown situation. Cal lost a ton of their starters on both sides of the ball and are in a full-blown rebuilding year. Not only is QB Jared Goff gone to the NFL, but Cal also lost their top six receivers from a year ago. Golden Bears put up big passing numbers the last two weeks against inferior competition, and they lost outright (covered as a 5.5-point underdog) at San Diego State last week. Longhorns have a balanced offense, but honestly they can run the ball on 100% of their plays and win this game comfortably. Cal has given up nearly 600 yards rushing against a pair of non-Power Conference teams (and not triple-option teams either) and will absolutely worn out by the second half in this game. Longhorns have a legit chance to score on nearly every possession, and while Cal will make some plays through the air, their defense doesn't keep them in the game. 20* CFB "Late Night Bailout" Play on Texas.

25* Play on Ohio State (-1). Ohio State has been very kind to us this year, giving us a pair of easy ATS covers the first two weeks of the season in blowout victories against Bowling Green (covered the spread by 40 points) and last week vs. Tulsa (covered by 17 points). Now the Buckeyes face some "real" competition playing a true road game at Oklahoma. Sooners crushed an overmatched Louisiana Monroe squad last week but dropped their season-opener outright against Houston. That loss was very telling, as former OSU offensive coordinator Tom Herman is running the show in Houston, and the Sooners defense gave up over 400 yards. Now they face a similar offense with far more talented athletes in the key positions. Buckeyes defense hasn't been talked about much, but they have allowed zero touchdowns this year while scoring three themselves. Their secondary is attacking the passing lanes forcing turnovers while their rush defense has been stout. Oklahoma will break the century mark on the ground here, but won't do much through the air without making mistakes along the way. Remember, Buckeyes have not lost a true road game since Urban Meyer took over the head coaching duties. OSU is the better team, and they prove it with a signature win this Saturday night! 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year Play on Ohio State.

25* Play on Michigan State (+8). We faded Notre Dame in their outright season-opening loss against Texas, and we'll fade them again this week as they host a well-rested Michigan State team. Irish very may well win this game outright, although we give the Spartans a coin-flip's chance of winning this game as well and a very good chance of covering this inflated number. MSU was off last week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for this matchup. Notre Dame was not able to contain the Texas ground game and on the other side of the ball their passing game has fallen a few notches from seasons past. That sets up very nicely for the visitors, as Michigan State's power rushing attack should find a ton of success this Saturday, and while MSU's secondary is just average - they are extremely good at stopping the run. If Notre Dmae wins this game - and that's a big "if" - we don't think it will be by more than a touchdown. MSU keeps this game close and may even steal an outright upset victory! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on Oklahoma State (-4.5). Wrong place, wrong time for Pittsburgh, who visits Oklahoma State after the Cowboys had a victory wrongly taken away from them last Saturday. Everyone has seen the final play Central Michigan came up with to steal the win, but the manner in which it happened will only have Oklahoma State more focused and looking to take out their aggression this week. We don't put much stock into both teams season-opening victories against cupcake opponents, but the fact that Penn State was able to put up a ton of yardage through the air means the Cowboys should have a field day throwing the ball here. Pittsburgh can not match the Cowboys passing attack, and we're not sure they'll have much success on the ground. Panthers just 9-23 ATS on the road after a two-game home stand, and in their road opener their offense sputters as Oklahoma State shows no mercy in a rout! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Oklahoma State.

20* Play on Alabama (-11). Ole' Miss was impressive in the first half of their opening-season tilt against Florida State, but has fallen apart ever since. Rebels couldn't hold on to the ball and let FSU come all the way back to win by a comfortable 11-point margin (as a four-point favorite), and Ole' Miss followed up that game with a pedestrian 25-point win against Wofford. Ole' Miss was favored by 44 points in that game but only scored 38 points total. Now the Rebels take on the top-ranked team in the country and we don't think they'll be able to stay competitive. Alabama shut down USC's offense allowing just six points scored total, and with Kent State on deck there's nothing to take their focus away from this game Saturday. Rebels gave up almost 600 yards of total offense against the Seminoles, but Alabama won't have to come anywhere close to that to cover this number with ease. 'Bama in a rout! 25* CFB "SEC Game of the Month" Play on Alabama.

25* Play on Houston (-7.5). A pair of 2-0 teams meet up on Thursday night, and while Houston has already earned a signature win by defeating Oklahoma, they are not yet getting enough respect from the linesmakers. This will be Houston's first true road game of the season, but we aren't expecting much from the Bearcats tonight - even on their home field. Perhaps it was Cincinnati's outright road win against the Big Ten's Purdue that has this line as low as it is. Bearcats won that game 18 points, but they allowed over 400 yards passing in that game and the main reason for that lopsided score was a 5-0 advantage in turnovers. Houston hasn't allowed 100 yards rushing yet this season (OU put up 70 yards, Lamar held to 15) and the Bearcats without a credible rushing threat is an offense that is in trouble. We were impressed with Houston's ability to avoid the letdown after that big Oklahoma win and that shows us they will not be rattled in a road game setting tonight. Bearcats defense gets a huge step up in class here while Houston is already confident after that big opening-season victory. We would be surprised if Houston wins this game by anything less than two touchdowns! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Houston.

20* Play on Ohio State (-28.5). Buckeyes delivered a 40-point cover for us last week in their 77-10 lopsided win against an overmatched Bowling Green squad, and we look for the Buckeyes to win by another huge margin again this Saturday. We figured the Buckeyes offense would get better even with the loss of some key stars, and now without a QB controversy the Buckeyes offense looked unbeatable in racking up 417 passing yards and another 359 on the ground. This is a different spot for OSU compared to last week, with the obvious lookahead to Oklahoma next week looming large. But Tulsa isn't equipped to take advantage of that motivational disadvantage, and given their history of huge blowout losses against superior competition, we look for this one to get out of hand quickly. When the Golden Hurricane lose, they lose big, falling by double-digits in each of their last ten losses overall (six last year and four the year prior). Ohio State's defense only allowed three points against what we expect to be an overall decent BG offense (one touchdown was scored last week on an INT return), and with an overmatched team playing on the road in front of 100,000+ we don't expect much scoring from Tulsa this Saturday. Don't look for another 67-point win, but the Buckeyes still cover this number with plenty of room to spare! 20* CFB Blowout of the Month Play on Ohio State.

25* Play on Texas (+3.5). We are looking for good things from Texas this year, with head coach Charlie Strong taking his lumps early to institute his brand of football and this is the year that Strong has to deliver. Longhorns played better overall than their 5-7 record shows, and with 15 returning starters they are poised to make an impact. Notre Dame is almost always overvalued by the linesmakers due to their tradition and national appeal, and this game is no different. Irish lost seven starters on offense from last year and six more on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame was a perfect 6-0 on their home field but just 4-3 straight up on the road, allowing nearly as many points per game (28) than they scored (29). It's always hard to play on the road under the lights, but even more so when it's the first game of the season with a ton of new faces on the field. No motivational disadvantages for Texas on their upcoming schedule to take focus away from this game, and we look for a strong start from the Longhorns who will go deep into their playbook, and coast to the outright win! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Texas.

20* Play on Auburn (+7.5). Way too many points to lay on the road for Deshaun Watson and the Clemson Tigers - especially against a solid rushing team and in a nighttime setting. We love the points and believe Auburn has an outside chance of winning this game outright. Watson enters the season as the favorite to win the Heisman, and in a bad conference we do expect him to put up some solid numbers if he stays healthy, but in this game and against a ball-control, clock-killing offense like Auburn, the home side should be able to keep him off the field and keep this game close throughout. Clemson's biggest losses from last year's squad are on the defensive side of the ball, losing two quality big men up front and much of their secondary. Auburn's power running game is a great matchup against this unproven defense, and that is where we believe Auburn will be able to hang close. Clemson will score - we don't have any doubt about that - but it's always tough to play on the road at night and it only takes one holding penalty or a sack to kill a drive. We don't completely buy in to all the hype surrounding Clemson this year, and we look for Auburn to at least have a chance of stealing this one outright! 20* CFB "Watch Party" Play on Auburn.

20* Play on Ohio State (-27.5). Both Bowling Green and Ohio State come into this year with similar story lines, having reached double-digits in victories last year while also losing a ton of players in the offseason. BG returns just five starters on offense and six starters on defense, and Ohio State will see just three returners on each side of the ball. The big difference, however, is that Ohio State is a legit contender to win the National Championship even in a "rebuilding" year, and the fact that quarterback JT Barrett is now the "man" without any quarterback controversy should see his numbers improve drastically. Buckeyes don't rebuild - they reload - and this is the perfect spot for head coach Urban Meyer's crew to build some confidence. Bowling Green will be a solid team this year, but not in their road opener with so many new faces and in front of 100,000+ fans. Meyer has a knack for running up the score and showing no mercy against inferior teams, and this Saturday's game will be no different. Lay the points with confidence! 20* CFB "Opening Kickoff" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Oregon (-7). TCU was already going to have problems competing against an elite offensive Oregon team as their star WR Josh Doctson was out, but with quarterback Trevone Boykin now missing this game as well we don't give the Horned Frogs any chance of keeping up with the Ducks on the scoreboard. When injuries were piling up TCU went just 2-2 in their last four games, but more importantly their scoring average fell significantly in that time, being held to under 30 points in all four of those contents (after scoring 40+ points in seven straight). Oregon has been just the opposite, with their offense getting stronger as the season wore on and they come into this game riding a six-game winning streak while putting up 38+ points in each of their last five. Neither side is particularly good defensively, which puts all the pressure on both teams offenses to carry their team to victory. And with TCU missing their top QB and top WR, they simply aren't equipped to hang around in this one. Ducks take it in a blowout! 20* CFB "Watch Party" Play on Oregon.

25* Play on Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State Over (68). Love the Over in this Sugar Bowl matchup featuring a pair of teams that are averaging over 40 points per game each. Ole Miss comes in scoring just over 40 ppg, and that came while playing against a very tough SEC schedule. Oklahoma State's schedule was not nearly as tough (in terms of quality defenses faced), but they are similar to the other offensive juggernauts in the Big 12 Conference where offense is everything and defense is an afterthought (similar to Texas Tech and Baylor). And with both teams employing pass-heavy play calling, we expect this game to sail over the total either late in the third quarter or early in the fourth. This game falls into several of our College Bowl Over systems, and in the same family of systems we used this postseason when we played over in the Duke vs. Indiana game (went over by 12 points) as well as the over in the Baylor vs. UNC game (went over by 13 points). And while we can't reveal the exact specifics of our system, we can tell you that it involves playing over the total on certain teams in games with high totals. Cowboys have gone over the total in five straight games despite three of those totals being higher than 75 points. Both offenses match up very well statistically and we expect an old fashioned shootout with a very high combined point margin! 25* CFB System Total of the Year on Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State Over.

20* Play on Iowa vs. Stanford Under (54.5). While we do like both defenses in this game, the main reason we are backing the Under in the Rose Bowl is due to expected play-calling. Both Iowa and Stanford are rush-heavy offenses and that will result in the clock continuously moving - leading to fewer total possessions. Stanford finished with just 13 pass attempts total in their Pac 12 Championship Game victory against USC - the fifth time this season they've had fewer than 20 pass attempts in a game. Iowa has an 8-5 rush-to-pass ratio on the season, and the majority of those pass attempts come out of play-action after already establishing the run. Defensively these teams are very good in terms of points allowed, and even average scoring numbers (defensively) would result in this Under play cashing by double-digits. Again, game pace and a heavy number of running plays is the key here, and we fully expect both sides to mirror each other offensively. This type of matchup tends to result in head coaches playing extremely conservative at the start, and while we do expect some points to be scored in the second half when the defenses start to wear out, it will be too little, too late as this one falls well short of the posted total. 20* CFB "Total Eclipse" Play on Iowa vs. Stanford Under.

20* Play on Michigan (-3.5). Florida Gators have been overrated for the better part of the season, and were finally exposed down the stretch with ugly wins against Vanderbilt and Florida Atlantic, followed by blowout losses against Florida State and Alabama to close the year. Gators defense is well above average, but their offense is flat out awful, and they were held to just 17 points combined in those two season-ending losses against the Seminoles and Crimson Tide. They face another very good defensive side on New Year's Day as Michigan comes in allowing just 17 points per game and have already pitched three shutouts this season. Wolverines have shown massive improvement since the start of the season - a direct result of coach Harbaugh's influence in his first season at Ann Arbor, and we expect even more improvement with the long preparation break in between this bowl game and the end of the regular season. Don't believe Florida will be able to score more than 10 points in this game (outside of any defensive scores) and we'll gladly lay this small number with the Wolverines. Michigan will have trouble running the ball early, but with an expected big edge in time of possession the Wolverines will be able to wear down the Florida defense and have a big second half. Gators confidence has been dwindling the entire second half of the season and once they fall behind we don't believe they'll be able to catch up! 20* CFB "Early Equation" Play on Michigan.

25* Play on Ohio State (-5.5). Buckeyes won't have a chance to repeat as National Champions but have earned a quality bowl berth and will face Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. This is a kind location for the Buckeyes, who won a National Championship here against Miami FL back in the Jim Tressel era. We'll back the Buckeyes, who we still consider to be one of the top teams in the country and also the best team in the Big Ten (despite Michigan State representing the conference yesterday). Don't like Notre Dame's chances of slowing down Ohio State's offense, who has really only been contained once and that was in unfavorable weather conditions (at home vs. Michigan State). Fighting Irish had a good-looking schedule at the start of the year but ended up playing teams in down seasons (USC for example), and they lost against the two best opponents they faced (Stanford, Clemson). Ohio State's defense is one of the best in the country allowing 14 ppg and just over 300 total yards per game. Notre Dame won't be able to do anything on the ground and the Buckeyes secondary is skilled enough to play one-on-one, freeing up safeties and linebackers to get pressure on the quarterback. Notre Dame's rush defense has been susceptible (which Stanford was able to take advantage of) and plays into Ohio State's offensive game plan perfectly. This could be the biggest blowout on the board today and we'll back Ohio State at our highest 25* rating to cover this number with ease! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Michigan State (+10). This is a very similar situation for Alabama, who was in this same spot last year in the CFP Semifinals. The Crimson Tide were a big favorite against the Big Ten Champion and nobody game OSU a chance of winning that game. We all know the Buckeyes crushed Alabama and went on to win the National Championship. Similar matchup for Alabama here, and while the Crimson Tide outright victory seems likely, a Michigan State upset wouldn't really be surprising to us. MSU came out of what we consider to be the best conference in College Football this year, and did so by playing outstanding defense and mistake-free offense. They completely shut down Ohio State's running game, which we consider to be better than Alabama's. Remember, the SEC has been down as a whole this season, with only Alabama being what we consider to be an elite team. This MSU rush defense will by far be the toughest challenge for Alabama's offense to date, and we are not sold on their passing game. On the other side of the ball, MSU will also have a tough time running the ball, but we are more than confident in Connor Cook's ability to beat Alabama through the air. That secondary is the lone weakness on Alabama's defense that the SEC hasn't been able to properly take advantage of (outside of Ole' Miss early on the year). Far too many points for Alabama to be laying against a quality conference champion and we'll back Michigan State looking for the Spartans to at least have a chance at an outright win late in the game! 20* CFB Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Michigan State.

30* Play on Oklahoma (-3.5). We've been patiently waiting since the College Football pairings were announced to jump on the Sooners in this game, and we fully believe they will not only win and cover this small number, but win in a blowout. Clemson is deserving of their #1 ranking, but they are not at all the best team in the country. In fact, we rate them as the worst team of the Top Four. Clemson comes out an awful ACC Conference, and after successfully fading both North Carolina and NC State the last few days in blowout losses, we are now more certain than ever the Tigers are extremely overrated. It's very telling that the linesmaker has Oklahoma favored by this margin against the #1 team in the country, which lends credence to our ratings. Sooners run and pass very well and we're not convinced Clemson can stop either of those two attacks. Oklahoma has faced a much tougher schedule and is peaking at the right time - much like Ohio State did last year en route to a National Championship. Clemson's passing game is for real, but Oklahoma has seen much better passing teams in the Big 12 this year and beat them all with relative ease (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech). Another big factor is Clemson's play away from home, where they have looked far from unbeatable. They barely got past Louisville by three points, and then again at South Carolina by five points. The same North Carolina team that was blown out by Baylor a few days ago played Clemson very tough in the ACC Championship Game, and honestly the Tar Heels were robbed by an awful offsides call at the end of the game when they recovered an onside kick and were set up to make a potential game-tying touchdown drive. All statistical evidence points to an Oklahoma blowout victory, and when factoring in strength of conference to those statistics we like the Sooners even more! 30* 2015-16 CFB Game of the Year Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on USC (-3.5). Big Ten and Pac 12 square off in the Holiday Bowl with a couple of good (not great) teams in Wisconsin and USC. We are high on the Big Ten overall this year but not so much on Wisconsin, who's 9-3 record suggests a strong team but they had the great benefit of missing Big Ten powers Michigan, Michigan State,and Ohio State this year. In fact, with losses against Iowa and Northwestern, the Badgers don't own a single victory against a Big Ten team with an overall winning record. Badgers don't have the same type of dominant rushing game they had in recent years, and still lack a credible passing game with a low 229 passing yards per game average. That lack of a passing game negates USC's biggest weakness, which is their secondary, and we're not at all convinced the Badgers will be able to rush the ball on this USC defense. On the other side of the ball, USC's balanced offense should find success against an overrated Wisconsin defense that has been largely untested this season. Wisconsin is only allowing 13 ppg which is why this line is as low as it is, but that speaks more to the quality of competition they have faced this year. Trojans more than capable of exploding offensively having four games with 40 or more points scored. We have much more faith in USC's chances of reaching the end zone on a regular basis and believe Wisconsin is in real trouble if and when they fall behind. Finally, we find the Trojans at a near-perfect 11-1 against the spread following an outright loss, and we look for USC to win this game by a surprising margin! 20* CFB Wednesday "Watch Party" Play on USC.

25* Play on Mississippi State (-6). This is almost entirely a play "against" NC State more than it is "on" Mississippi State, as the Wolfpack have zero quality wins in our eyes and are one of the most unworthy bowl teams this season. After playing a non-conference schedule that would make Baylor envious (Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama), they did absolutely nothing against the better teams in an awful ACC Conference this year. Their three conference victories came against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse - three teams that have a combined three conference victories this season. All five of their losses came by at least a touchdown, and the two good opponents they faced this year (Clemson and North Carolina) they gave up a combined 101 points to. Mississippi State has the type of balanced offense that will give NC State fits and quite honestly we expect this game to get out of hand quickly. We have been down on the SEC this year but the ACC has by far been the worst conference in football, and NC State showed they couldn't compete at that level. No way they can stay close to this Bulldogs offense and we expect this one to be decided in blowout fashion! 25* CFB Wednesday "King's Ransom" Play on Mississippi State.

20* Play on Auburn (-3). The Auburn Tigers have had a dreadful season, starting with a preseason ranking in the Top Ten but finished the year with a 6-6 overall record. And while Auburn has had more than their fair share of problems, we think they match up pretty well in this game against Memphis. Memphis has had a very good year with more than a few breaks go their way, however they stumbled down the stretch losing a ton of confidence and momentum with a three-game losing streak just prior to their final game of the season. Two of those three losses showed the way to beat Memphis, as both Navy and Temple ran all over them and not only scored points on the ground, but also kept the Memphis offense off the field. Auburn can duplicate that type of game plan and while they certainly didn't envision themselves in this bowl game at the start of the season, they do have motivation to play well here and avoid a losing season. This line appears to be somewhat of a trap, with the linesmaker fully expecting the bulk of the action to come in on the underdog. We're not biting, and instead look for Auburn's massive edge in the running game to slow this game down and grind out a tough-fought win and cover! 20* CFB Wednesday "Early Equation" Play on Auburn.

25* Play on LSU (-7). Texas Tech has had the luxury of playing in the Big 12 Conference, where offense is everything and defense is an afterthought. And they have succeeded in that environment, as their offense is built to "out-score" other teams. They have three victories this season where they have allowed 44 or more points. But we don't like the matchup of their "offense-only" style of play against a solid LSU team, even though the Tigers fell apart late in the season. LSU is a rush heavy offense that struggled when defenses were forcing them to throw the ball. They won't need to throw the ball in this game as Texas Tech is giving up 275 rushing yards per game on a whopping 6 yards per carry, and that comes in a pass-heavy conference. When the Red Raiders can't stop the run, their opponent is able to slow the pace down and have a huge edge in time of possession, and that's exactly what we expect to happen here. The best defense Texas Tech faced this season was Oklahoma, and the Sooners had no problem winning big in a 63-27 blowout. LSU is comparable to the Sooners defensively, and they will be able to at least contain Texas Tech in this matchup (although we concede Texas Tech will put up some points). We're not calling for a 36-point margin of victory here, but we would be shocked if the Tigers didn't win this game by double-digits and we'll back LSU at our highest 25* rating! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on LSU.

20* Play on Baylor (+3). Bears went from a 2.5-point favorite all the way to a medium-sized underdog in this Russell Athletic Bowl thanks to injuries - most notably the doubtful playing status of backup QB Jarrett Stidham. That means Chris Johnson will get the start under center for Baylor, and we have complete faith in the Baylor offense with Johnson running the show Johnson doesn't have great numbers this year, but he's really only had one game to himself that that was in horrid weather conditions (against TCU). The expected weather forecast for this game (mid-80's, only a 10% chance of rain) leads us to believe Johnson will be just find running this Baylor offense, and after laying an egg in their season finale against Texas (Johnson left that game after just four pass attempts) we expect Baylor to come out and play angry in this game. UNC was the second best team in a very bad conference, and while their offense is formidable their defense is going to get torched here. Tar Heels have not faced an offense like Baylor's (we view Baylor's offense to be better than even #1 Clemson) and to be honest we would be shocked if Baylor had to send their punt unit out more than once all game long. This is a bad matchup for North Carolina and the exact type of game Baylor likes - with both offenses being the deciding factor in the game. Against a different type of opponent we likely would have backed UNC, but not in this game and we look for Baylor to win this one outright by a comfortable margin! 20* CFB Bowl "Watch Party" Play on Baylor.

20* Play on Baylor vs. North Carolina Over (68.5). We have a few CFB Bowl "Over" systems active in this game, very similar to our "Secret System" winner on the Over in the Duke vs. Indiana game a few days ago. But aside from the systems, this game features a pair of dynamic offenses against weaker defenses - specifically weak pass defenses. Baylor will have Chris Johnson get the start at quarterback after losing their top two quarterbacks to injury earlier this season. Baylor is a "system offense", however, and their offense is far less dependent on a quarterback than most other teams. Johnson doesn't have great numbers, but that is due to the horrible weather in the one game he saw the bulk of the action in vs. TCU. Johnson will have far better weather conditions in this game (mid 80's, 10% chance of rain) and we don't have any reservations expecting Baylor's passing game to succeed behind Johnson against a UNC defense that has given up big passing yardage despite playing a schedule that really doesn't feature elite passing offenses. These two teams are two of the best offenses in the country, and even average scoring outputs by both teams (Baylor puts up 48 ppg, UNC puts up 41 ppg) would see this game go well over the posted total. This number is far too low and is based on Baylor's injuries, but we expect the Bears offense to be just fine and we expect this game to sail over the total with plenty of time to spare! 20* CFB "Total Eclipse" Play on Baylor vs. North Carolina Over.

20* Play on Navy (-3). This is a true home game for Navy, who has gone 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in home games this season. Pittsburgh has also done very well on the road this year, going 5-1 both SU and ATS in their six road games. We very much like Navy in this contest, however, noting the favorable on-field matchup on both sides of the ball, particularly in the running game. Navy's triple-option rushing attack has worked very well against everyone they've faced, and we expect similar success against the Panthers. Pitt did play on triple-option team this year, when they beat Georgia Tech by three points on the road back in mid-October. And while the Panthers were able to win that game against a down Georgia Tech team, the Yellow Jackets managed to put up 376 yards rushing (and another 106 yards through in the air) - out-gaining Pittsburgh by almost 100 total yards in that contest. On the other side of the ball, Navy's rush defense is very good, and we're not convinced Pitt is good enough to beat them through the air. Navy's two losses this team came against elite offenses in Notre Dame and Houston, and the Panthers are not close to that level of offense. Playing at home will be a boost to this Navy side, and they are playing with extreme confidence after already reaching double-digits in victories before this game kicks off. Pitt has done well away from home but this will be the toughest road opponent they will have faced this year, and we look for Navy to gain control of this one early and cruise to an easy win and cover! 20* CFB Bowl "Early Equation" Play on Navy.

20* Play on Indiana vs. Duke Over (71.5). While we can't reveal the exact specifics of our "Secret System", we can tell you that it involves playing over the total on certain teams in game with a high total. The linesmaker expects both Indiana and Duke to put up big offensive numbers and have set a high total over 70 points in this game. While that is certainly a high number compared to average totals in college football games, this number is not nearly high enough and we wouldn't be shocked to see a combined score of 90 points or higher. And while both teams employ very good offenses that also run at a fast tempo, it's the poor defenses involved that really make us like this play. Hoosiers finished the year with six consecutive Overs while Duke went over the total in five of their last six games overall. Blue Devils defensive numbers look much better than they should thanks to playing an incredibly weak schedule. The best team they faced by far was North Carolina, who put up 66 points on Duke. Indiana's defense is also very bad, and their weak secondary will definitely be in for a long day in this matchup. Hoosiers offense is very explosive, however, and has been getting better as the season has gone on, putting up 41, 47, and 54 points in their last three games. We would be surprised if both teams didn't reach at least 40 points each at a minimum, and expect this game to sail over the total early in the fourth quarter! 20* CFB "Secret System" Play on Indiana vs. Duke Over.

20* Play on Washington State (-2.5). While both of these teams come into this game with identical 8-4 records, we view Washington State as a team on the rise and that record came in a much tougher Pac 12 Conference than Miami's ACC. Washington State has been a bad team for quite a while, but head coach Mike Leach has now had a few years at Washington State to implement his offense and things are looking bright for the Cougars. WSU has quality wins against Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA - all on the road - as well as Arizona State and home and nearly upset Stanford as well (lost by just two points). On the other side, the Hurricanes couldn't keep up with the quality foes they faced, and the top two teams in the conference completely destroyed Miami as the Hurricanes lost to Clemson and North Carolina by a combined 96 points! WSU's passing offense has put up big yardage on everyone they've faced, and while their running game is suspect this Miami rush defense hasn't stopped a single FBS team all year long. Not nearly as much confidence in Miami's offense as we have in WSU's, and in fact the Hurricanes are in a horrible motivational spot after losing their head coach. Mike Leach was named Coach of the Year in the Pac 12 and he finishes strong as the Cougars win this one going away! 20* CFB "Early Equation" Play on Washington State.

20* Play on Western Michigan (-4.5). The Mid American Conference has looked good so far, with Ohio U staying within two points of Appalachian State (covered as a seven-point underdog), and outright underdog victories by both Akron (+7 vs. Utah State) and Toledo (beat #24 Temple by 15 points as a two-point underdog). (Note: this handicapping report was written prior to Wednesday's games.) We are going to back the MAC on Thursday afternoon at an early Noon ET kickoff as we love the value we are getting with a vastly underrated WMU squad. Broncos are 7-5 on the season, but a closer look at the schedule reveals they went through an incredibly tough road to get here. Two of those five losses came against Michigan State and Ohio State - two of the powers of the Big Ten (as well as nationally) and Western Michigan covered the spread in both of those games. The other three losses came against fellow bowl teams Georgia Southern, as well as the top two teams in the MAC - Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. Not one bad loss for Western Michigan in that list, and they do have confidence after upsetting 35-30 on the road to close the regular season. Middle Tennessee State played a far easier schedule, and while we admit their offense will do some damage in this game, we believe Western Michigan's offense will have a far easier time. Added benefit of watching fellow MAC squad Akron win their first-eve bowl game will have this team extra motivated as they, too, have never won a bowl game in their program's history. They did play in a bowl game last year, so they aren't "just happy to be here" as the saying goes. This time they win! 20* CFB Thursday "High Noon Showdown" Play on Western Michigan.

20* Play on Bowling Green (-7). Two completely different offensive styles clash on Wednesday night as triple-option Georgia Southern takes on up-tempo, spread attack Bowling Green in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. We love backing triple-option teams under the right circumstances, but this is not one of them and instead we'll lay the points with the Falcons. Georgia Southern will gain some yardage and find the endzone a few times here, but Bowling Green's main weakness defensively is the secondary and the Eagles offense isn't built to take advantage. On the other side of the ball, Bowling Green is averaging 43 points per game and has scored on everyone they've faced (minimum of 28 points scored this year). Even more impressive is how they have played away from home, going 7-1 straight up with road wins against Maryland and Purdue from the Big Ten, a 14-point win against a rush-heavy Western Michigan team, and a 20-point win vs. Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. BG had a much tougher overall schedule than the Eagles and still are the better team statistically. Falcons have yet to show mercy at any point this year with eight double-digit victories, and we fully expect another double-digit win and cover on Wednesday night by the better team! 20* CFB Bowl "Watch Party" Play on Bowling Green.

20* Play on Boise State (-7.5). While we do like with Northern Illinois did in an underrated MAC Conference this season, the simple fact that the Huskies have not played well since quarterback Drew Hare was lost for the season with injury leads us to believe they won't be able to hang with a very good offensive Boise State team. Broncos are not near the same caliber of when this program was at it's peak a few years ago, but they are still putting up 38 points per game and their balanced offensive attack matches up very well against this Northern Illinois defense. Huskies lost their last two games of the season - an outright home loss vs. Ohio U as a big 11-point favorite and then a 20-point loss against Bowling Green on a neutral field in the MAC Championship Game. Huskies gave up well over 200 yards rushing in both of those losses and their secondary has really been their main weakness on either side of the ball all year long, so Boise State should be able to hit their scoring average of upper-30's in this contest. On the other side of the ball, UNI's offense has really fallen off since Hare went down, with the passing game losing much of it's credibility and defenses bringing up more players to stop the run as a result, which has obviously led to their running game being far less effective. Under different circumstances we may have looked to back the Huskies in this matchup, but with Hare still out we very much like the Broncos and their highly favorable offensive advantage. 20* CFB Bowl "Early Equation" Winner on Boise State.

20* Play on Utah (-2.5). Utes have been kind to us this year both when we have backed them (Oregon) and faded them (USC), and we'll go ahead and back Utah on Saturday to get to ten wins on the season in the Las Vegas Bowl against BYU. Favorable on-field matchup for the Utes against a BYU team that lost their starting quarterback early in the season. Cougars have done well to win nine games themselves and their passing game hasn't dropped off much after losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill, but Hill's ability to rush the ball was a big loss for the BYU offense. No surprise that BYU lost both games against the better rush defenses they faced - getting shut out against Michigan and then falling to Missouri. Utah's rush defense is underrated and the statistical matchup between these two defenses does not portray an accurate picture since Utah faced a much better slate of competitors in the Pac 12. Utah lost momentum in the second half of the season after losing their first game of the season at USC (was ranked #3 in the country heading into that game) but the extra time off and a chance for a ten-win season will have this team properly motivated. We give Utah a sizeable edge on both sides of the ball (BYU does have the advantage in the passing game, however), and should dominate time of possession with their rushing attack. With their running game working, Utah will be able to use play-action to find success through the air as well. This line doesn't accurately depict how much better Utah is, and we fully expect the Utes to win this game with ease! 20* CFB Bowl "Watch Party" Play on Utah.

25* Play on North Carolina (+5). Our opinion of Clemson is a bit confusing - we do believe they are rightfully ranked #1 in the country due to their unbeaten record and signature win against Notre Dame (better than any win Iowa has going into this weekend). That being said, we don't believe Clemson is the best team in the country. That win against the Irish came on their home field by a two-point margin - with the Tigers benefiting from four Irish turnovers in a game Notre Dame finished with over 140 more total yards than the Tigers. Also alarming is Clemson's mediocre play away from home, which includes close margins of victory against Louisville (3 points), Syracuse (10 points as a 30-pt favorite), and most recently South Carolina (five points as a 20.5-pt favorite). And while we're not going out on a limb by proclaiming the ACC the worst of the Power 5 Conferences, we do believe North Carolina to be vastly underrated and fully expect the Tar Heels to not only cover the spread here, but win this game outright. UNC's offense is truly balanced and they game plan according to their opponent. Against a weak Duke secondary they finished with 537 yards passing. Against NC State last week they ran for 374 yards. Clemson's defense isn't really great at any particular aspect, and we expect the balance of UNC's offense to have success at anything Clemson tries to do defensively. Tar Heels offense has been better than Clemson's over the course of the season, and they are peaking at the right time with 45+ points scored in three of their last four games. All the pressure is on the #1 team in the country in this matchup, and while they have had more than a few bounces go their way this year they can't rely on luck this time around. No home field advantage for the Tigers here, and this is the biggest test their defense will have faced all season long. Clemson had a hell of a run this year, but they come up one game short of reaching the College Football Playoffs as North Carolina wins this game outright! 25* CFB Championship Game of the Year on North Carolina.

25* Play on Michigan State (-3.5). We have much respect for Iowa, who clearly overachieved this season with a perfect regular season record in an underrated Big Ten Conference. And while the Hawkeyes were fortunate in their conference schedule (did not have to play Michigan State, Ohio State, or Michigan) they still delivered that perfect record without the recruiting capabilities of the bigger programs in the conference. That being said, we expect Iowa's run to end on Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game versus Michigan State. Spartans have not been consistent all season long - looking unbeatable against a very good Ohio State team on the road as well as their blowout victory against Penn State in the last two weeks, but also looking shaky against some of the weaker competition in the Big Ten. That win against the Buckeyes clearly gave this team a huge boost of confidence, and the matchup of their dominant rush defense against a very rush-heavy Iowa team is the key matchup in this game. That's a matchup we fully expect Michigan State to win handily. Iowa runs the ball five times for every two pass attempts, and those passes are usually set up from play-action. Assuming Michigan State is able to contain Iowa's running game, the Hawkeyes will have absolutely nothing working offensively in this game. That is the defensive approach the Spartans used against Ohio State, and it would be shocking to see anything different in this game. On the other side of the ball, Iowa is also very good at stopping the run, but unlike the Hawkeyes the Spartans can pass the ball without needing the running game to be working. Linemakers listed Michigan State as a solid 3.5-point favorite as their opening number despite the Spartans being the lower-ranked team. That is not an accident, and while many had been expecting Iowa to lose their first game prior to this point, this is easily the best chance on paper for that initial loss to happen. Spartans match up very well defensively and have the edge offensively with their passing game - leading them to victory and a spot in the College Football Playoffs. 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on West Virginia (-5.5). We backed Kansas State last week in their blowout win and cover against in-state rival Kansas - a play we make every single year. And while Kansas State head coach BIll Snyder always has his team up for that in-state rivalry game, they now suffer an obvious letdown spot this week as well as a bad on-field matchup against West Virginia this Saturday. Wildcats had no problem shutting down a bad Jayhawks offense but face a much different challenge here, as West Virginia's run-heavy offensive attack goes right at the weakness of this Kansas State defense. Wildcats defense is giving up 38 ppg in conference play (including the 14 points allowed last week vs. Kansas) and most of that damage has come on the ground. Kansas State had allowed 230+ rushing yards in five of the six games prior to last week and now faces a Mountaineers team that has rushed for 200+ yards in each of their last four. Last year the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just one yard rushing on 29 carries, but Kansas State passed for 400 yards through the air to win by six. Wildcats don't have that passing threat this year and simply don't match up well on either side of the ball. Wildcats came through for us last week, but we'll fade them this Saturday and expect West Virginia to win by double-digits! 20* CFB "Big 12 Demolition" Play on West Virginia.

20* Play on Florida vs. Alabama Under (40). The linesmaker rightfully has Alabama as a significant favorite this week against a Florida team that was exposed as a fraud last Saturday. We backed Florida State at our highest 25* rating, noting Florida's offensive woes matched up against FSU's balanced offense was a complete mismatch. We feel like this game is also a mismatch, however we do not feel comfortable laying this high price. While Alabama has everything to gain in this contest, they don't need to impress any voters, run up the score, and more importantly risk injury once this game is out of hand. Adding in Florida's inept offense means as soon as the Tide have a comfortable lead, they can simply run out the clock and play conservative - getting their straight up win and then advancing to the College Football Playoffs. But while we don't like either team against the spread, we do think this game falls well under the total. The linesmaker is begging for action on the Over with his low total, but we're not biting. Last week we thought Florida would be held to single digits on the scoreboard, but even we were surprised they couldn't score any points offensively. Now they face an even better defense against Alabama - one that is built to stop the run which is Florida's only legitimate offensive threat. Very possible Florida is shutout in this game and we would be surprised if the Gators scored more than 6 points total. We already mentioned Alabama doesn't need to run up the score, and while the Gators secondary is overrated, their run defense is legit. Alabama builds an early lead here and then not much scoring to be had either way in the second half as this one falls well under the low total! 20* CFB Total of the Month Play on Florida vs. Alabama Under.

20* Play on Oklahoma (-7). Sooners will likely have quarterback Baker Mayfield back on the field for this one, and we look for Oklahoma to win this game easily in another favorable matchup against one of the Big 12's better teams. Oklahoma already got past both Baylor and TCU, and with a win this week vs. in-state rival Oklahoma State they will clinch their spot in the CFP Top 4. If that wasn't enough motivation, Oklahoma plays in a meaningful revenge spot after the Cowboys pulled a major upset against them last year, winning 38-35 as a huge 19.5-point road underdog. That type of embarrassing loss is one of the few examples of revenge actually meaning something in terms of motivation for that team to play better this time around. On field matchups heavily favor Oklahoma as we view the Cowboys as near-identical to both Baylor and TCU. And while the Horned Frogs lost to this Oklahoma team by a single point last week, that final score was not at all indicative of how that game played out, with the Sooners taking a commanding 30-13 lead into the fourth quarter but when Mayfield left the game the Sooners couldn't get anything done on offense - allowing TCU to make a furious comeback. Oklahoma State does have a very credible passing threat, but Oklahoma has proven able to slow down the best offenses the Big 12 has to offer (including Baylor and TCU for the first three quarters) while the Cowboys are atrocious themselves defensively. Cowboys have allowed 200+ rushing yards in three straight games and 396+ passing yards in three of their last four. Sooners balanced offense will find success no matter how they choose to attack. Adding into the motivational levels is Oklahoma State's first loss of the season last week, which has them in a big letdown spot here. All motivational and statistical signs point to an easy Sooners win and cover, and we'll back them to do just that! 20* CFB "TV Game of the Month" Play on Oklahoma.

25* Play on Florida State (-2.5). Florida Gators are the most overrated team in the country in our opinion, and while they've been playing with fire the last few weeks (only beat Vanderbilt by two points at home, and then needed overtime to get past a bad Florida Atlantic team last week) we think their luck runs out this week against in-state rival Florida State. Gators offense has been a mess since quarterback Will Grier was suspended for the remainder of the season, and without the threat of a passing attack their running game has also suffered. Gators only managed 252 yards of total offense last week and now face a Florida State defense that has been solid all season long only allowing 17 points per game. Seminoles have lost two games this season - once on a fluke play at the end of the game against Georgia Tech, and then a ten-point loss on the road at #1 Clemson. FSU played well in that loss against the Tigers, entering the fourth quarter tied with the number one team in the country (they also covered the big 12.5-point number for the duration of the 60 minutes). Linesmakers know Florida State is the better team in this matchup having the Seminoles listed as the road favorite in this matchup. This line brings back memories of the Utah vs. USC game several weeks back, where the unranked Trojans were favored over the #3 team in the country. Having a lower-ranked FSU team favored on the road is an obvious trap set by the linesmakers begging for action on the home side. We're not biting and believe that Florida could be held to single digits in this game, with Florida State winning by a large margin! 25* CFB Rivalry Game of the Year on Florida State.

25* Play on Stanford (-3). Big matchup this Saturday night with 10-1 Notre Dame visiting 9-2 Stanford, and we believe Stanford has a very favorable matchup in this game on their home field. Don't like how Notre Dame has played on the road this year - having their lone defeat at Clemson (committed four turnovers on that loss) but more importantly unimpressive wins against Virginia, Temple, and Boston College (won those three games by a combined 14 points despite being double-digit favorite in all three games). Cardinal is very good on their home field going 5-1 both straight up and against the spread, and we love the matchup of their run-heavy offense against a Notre Dame team that has had a ton of trouble stopping the run. And while strength of schedule is rarely an issue for Notre Dame, their bigger opponents (with the big exception of Clemson) have not been nearly as strong this year as expected (Texas, USC, Georgia Tech). The fact that Stanford is the favorite in this game speaks volumes and is definitely a trap set by the linesmaker, hoping to grab some action on the high-ranked visitor. Irish won't be able to run on this Stanford defense and their passing game is vastly overrated. Had this game been played in Notre Dame we may feel differently but as it stands we like Stanford to win and win big - giving this our highest 25* rating! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Stanford.

20* Play on Kansas State (-20). We back Kansas State every year in their in-state rivalry game against Kansas and they come through for us every year with a big win and cover. The reason is simple - head coach Bill Snyder has publicly stated he intends to run up the score on Kansas every year in order to show the in-state recruits who the best team in the state really is. Snyder had won and covered the spread in 11 of the 12 meetings prior to taking a three-year hiatus from 2006-2008. Kansas won all three games in that three-year span, but since Snyder came back in 2009, the Wildcats have won and covered the spread in all six meetings since his return to the sidelines. Kansas State isn't just covering the spread - they are blowing out the Jayhawks completely out of the water. In the last five years alone Kansas State has outscored the Jayhawks 256-67 - an average score of 51-13 (which was the exact final score last year). Riding a current 17-1 SU and ATS run in this series, and with the reasoning publicly stated by him, we will continue to back Bill Snyder in this game until he retires. This year is no exception, and the way Kansas has played this year (0-11 straight up) the Wildcats might not have needed any extra motivation to win in a blowout. Jayhawks are being outscored by 31 points per game this season, and are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS here at home. All relevant offensive and defensive statistics and matchups point to a blowout by the road side, but with Snyder's approach to this in-state rivalry and his proven track record in this series, it's a no-brainer to back the Wildcats to win big once again! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Kansas State.