6* Toronto (7:05 ET): Toronto and Ottawa have been division rivals ever since the NHL’s previous realignment, which placed both in the Atlantic. For this atypical 2020-21 season, they are now part of the new “North Division,” which is comprised of all the league’s Canadian franchises. It’s a necessity because of COVID-19 restricting travel. The Leafs should be quite happy about this development as they’ll get to face the Senators NINE times this season. (All regular season games are vs. division foes this year). 

For the first meeting, I like the Leafs to roll. They’ve already got a game under their belt, which they won 5-4 against Montreal on Wednesday. The win did require OT as the Leafs battled back from a two-goal deficit. They never led in regulation, but did end up outshooting the Habs 34-32. I’ve seen plenty of Stanley Cup buzz surrounding this team and rightly so as they are an elite offensive club, led by Hart Trophy candidate Auston Matthews. The new division alignment really favors the Leafs, who no longer have to contend with Tampa Bay and Boston. (A side note: this is as good a year as any for the 28-year drought of no Stanley Cup in Canada to end. One of them is guaranteed to be in the final four).

Ottawa comes into the year on the opposite end of the spectrum as they finished with the second fewest points in the league last season. They have yet to play a game. Opening with two against Toronto is not ideal. The Senators are being pegged for last in the North this season (Toronto is the consensus #1) and initially it looked like we were getting a real bargain with this line. It’s since been steamed up quite a bit, but that won’t change the fact this should be an easy two points for the Leafs. 6* Toronto

8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): If you’ve been following my NHL picks this postseason, the first thing I’d like to do is apologize! To be fair, the 1st round went exceptionally well. But things have largely “gone South” in the last two rounds and that’s been because of one team - Dallas. The Stars have toppled Colorado (who was my pick to win the Stanley Cup) and Vegas to make their first Stanley Cup Finals since 2000. To say I am in shock that they were able to oust the top two seeds in the West would be putting it mildly.

It’s not just that Dallas has been outshot this postseason. They’ve been outscored as well (64-63!). They are an extremely fortunate 4-0 in overtime games, which has been key. Every win in the Western Conference Finals was by a single goal and three of the last five wins have been in OT. Vegas outshot them badly, yet it somehow didn’t matter. In the past, I’ve written how the Stars’ scoring was due to regress (and it has). They scored just nine goals in the five games vs. the Golden Knights. In the close out game, they were down 2-0 entering the third period. 

Thankfully, here comes Tampa Bay to hopefully put an end to this Dallas’ madness. The Lightning have rolled through the last three rounds, dropping only four games in the process. Of course, they are 0-2 vs. the Stars this season with both losses coming in OT. But unlike a season ago, the ‘Ning have saved their best hockey for when it matters most. Steven Stamkos likely won’t play in Game 1, but that’s okay as Brayden Point is off the injured list. Stars goalie Anton Khudobin cannot possibly maintain his .950 save percentage from the last series. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): This marks the first time I’ve played a game in the series and I’m checking in just in time to catch the Lightning close out the clearly overmatched Islanders. While New York was allowing the fewest number of goals per game since the restart, that was before running into the Tampa Bay juggernaut, which has scored 17 goals in the four games thus far. In retrospect, Game 1 was an ominous sign when the Isles were whipped 8-2. That made it pretty clear this series wasn’t going long and look for TB to close it out in five. 

Although they’ve yet to finish off this series, you have to consider Tampa Bay the favorite to win the Stanley Cup right now. They’ve been incredibly impressive so far in the bubble, going 13-4 SU overall and never losing B2B games. After a bit of a slow start offensively, they are now back to averaging 3.4 goals per game since the restart, which is right in line with their season average. That they’ve increased their scoring against what had been the league’s best defensive team is very impressive. 

The Islanders simply lack the firepower to keep up here. Their top line has combined for just one single point in the L3 games and it was an assist from Matthew Barzal. In the team’s three losses in this series, the Isles have scored only four goals. The 5-3 win in Game 3 looks to be a total aberration as the Lightning have been in control of this series from the start. It doesn’t help matters that TB is 21-7 SU this season when coming off a win by 2+ goals. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): I feel I’ve already beaten this into the ground, but Dallas continuing to win this postseason just shocks me. They were on the verge of falling down 3-1 in the series with Calgary, but came back to win that series. They were decided underdogs in the last series with Colorado, yet won in seven games. It’s been more of the same with Vegas in the Western Conference Finals, which the Stars now lead 3-1 despite having been an underdog every game. Tonight will mark the 12th consecutive game in which Dallas has been a dog on the ML. 

The Stars scored 42 goals in the 10 games prior to this series getting underway. Vegas did a good job slowing them down in the first three games (just 4 goals allowed) before falling apart in the second period of Game 4 (lost 2-1). Despite losing on the scoreboard, the Golden Knights have looked like the better team in both Games 3 & 4 in which they outshot Dallas 40-23 and 33-20. The last game was particularly frustrating as Vegas led 1-0 and had outshot the Stars 23-9 when they shockingly allowed B2B goals.

This is just the 2nd time in the bubble that Vegas has dropped two in a row. The other came in the last series against Vancouver when they lost Games 5 & 6. They responded with a 3-0 shutout in Game 7, saving their season. They’ll now need to win three in a row to save the season, but I definitely think they’ll get this one. They are the better team. Both teams have six goals in the series, Dallas getting theirs on far fewer shot attempts. This isn’t sustainable. The Golden Knights are 11-3 SU after scoring 2 goals or less the previous game. 8* Vegas

10* Vegas (8:10 ET): The Golden Knights seemingly did everything right in Game 3, with the exception of winning on the scoreboard. They outshot Dallas 40-23, which should theoretically translate into an easy victory. But instead it was a 3-2 loss in overtime with goalie Robin Lehner uncharacteristically letting in two weak goals during regulation. Dallas is now 3-0 in OT games this postseason, which certainly feels a bit “lucky,” while Vegas now trails in a series for the 1st time this postseason. The Knights have only lost B2B games once in the bubble, that coming in the last series to Vancouver when they were already up 3-1. It’s their “turn” to win tonight.

As they’ve done most of the postseason, Vegas has dominated the puck the L2 games. They had the big edge in shots in Game 3 and it was 32-24 in their Game 2 shutout win (3-0). They are averaging nearly 12 more shots per game than their opponents throughout the playoffs. An 18-shot third period on Thursday seemed like they were constantly on the verge of taking the lead, but alas it was for naught. But if Vegas dominates the puck again here (which I think they will), then they are likely to be victorious.

It’s impressive enough that the Golden Knights are 4-1 off a loss since the restart. But three of those four wins have been shutouts! I’ve previously discussed how Dallas has predictably seen its offensive numbers start to dwindle. The lowest scoring team of the eight conference semifinalists came into this series having scored 42 goals in its L10 games. But they’ve been held to just three in regulation in the three games vs. Vegas thus far. The Stars have not only been outshot this postseason, they’ve actually been outscored! The fact they’ve been an underdog in 10 straight games while Vegas has yet to be a dog in the playoffs already made this a strange Conference Final. The fact Dallas is winning is even stranger. Vegas all the way, here. 10* Vegas

8* Vegas (8:05 ET): Both the Golden Knights and Stars are just 2-3 SU their L5 games as each “blew” a 3-1 series lead in the last round (both won Game 7’s obviously) and have then split the first two games here, each winning via shutout. As I’d been projecting for a while now, the Stars’ offense has begun to regress. Coming into Western Conference Finals, they’d scored 42 goals in the L10 games. They’ve been held to just 1 goal in two games by a Vegas side that now has posted FOUR shutouts in its L9 games.

Part of the reason I was so adamant that the Stars’ goal-scoring was about to go down was that they were the lowest-scoring team (in the regular season) among the eight conference semifinalists. They were actually among the lowest scoring teams invited to the bubble. Consider that they have more 5+ goal games here in Edmonton than they did the entire regular season. The team’s shooting percentage had also been unusually high coming into this series and was due to regress. 

What is clear is that Vegas has a much better goaltending situation than Colorado, Dallas’ opponent in the previous round. While the Golden Knights have had their own issues scoring in this series, they shouldn’t need many to prevail again here in this critical Game 3. They have done a great job outshooting their opponents this postseason. I should also point out that tonight marks the 10th consecutive game that Dallas has been an underdog on the money line. It’s a bit shocking they’ve even made it thus far. Meanwhile, Vegas has been favored in every game since the actual playoffs began, typically in this price range or even higher. 8* Vegas

10* Vegas (8:05 ET): I had the Under in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (which was an easy winner), but still I was surprised to see the favored Golden Knights get shut out. Still, they did the job defensively (which I had expected), holding the Stars to only 1 goal. That’s no small feat considering how much scoring we’ve seen from Dallas in the playoffs. But it’s a scoring explosion I fully expect will subside in this series considering they have more 5+ goal games in the postseason than they did the entire regular season!

Vegas should bounce back offensively in this one. They get Ryan Reaves back from a Game 1 suspension. They are also 9-4 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. For the most part, the Golden Knights have been outstanding at puck possession in the postseason, outshooting the opposition by a 36.4 to 24.7 per game average. Dallas is allowing 3.3 goals per game since the restart, which is actually more than they have scored themselves. They’ve also been outshot. 

 The Stars were the lowest scoring team in the regular season among the eight conference semifinalists, but shockingly scored 42 goals in the 10 games prior to this series getting underway. But now they are facing a team that posted THREE shutouts in its last series and is obviously MUCH better between the pipes then Colorado was. Dallas is now an underdog for the NINTH consecutive game while Vegas has been -150 or higher for every game since the 1st round began. The Golden Knights bounce back here. 10* Vegas

10* Colorado (Time TBD): The start time of this game is dependent on whether or not Vancouver can also force a Game 7. If the Canucks win Thursday, then they and Vegas will also play a Game 7 Friday. Colorado has forced this Game 7 situation in dramatic fashion, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. Of course, the Avalanche have also been favored in every game in this series. That they were down 3-1 in the first place seemed a bit head-scratching. I’ve taken them before in this series, feel strongly that they are the better team here and will thus play Game 7 accordingly.

I had the Under in Game 6, which the Avs won 4-1. It was Dallas’ lowest-scoring game of the series. Meanwhile, the Avs have now scored 4+ goals in four straight games as well as in six of the last eight. They’ve outshot the Stars for the series. Dallas’ scoring was always due to come down. Consider they have more 5+ goal games here in the bubble than they did the entire regular season prior to the shutdown! Going into Game 6, the Stars’ shooting percentage for this series was nearly double their regular season average. 

Colorado has a slew of injuries, the latest coming last game to Gabe Landeskog. They’re also down to their third goaltender, Michael Hutchinson. But Hutchinson seems to be the solution rather than the problem. He is only the 7th goaltender in playoff history to win his first two starts when facing elimination. Meanwhile, Dallas has nothing but uncertainty between the pipes. Ben Bishop was infamously chased in Game 5 and Anton Khudobin has an .876 save percentage his L4 starts. Their top line has just 1 pt the L2 games. 10* Colorado

9* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Things have taken a drastic turn here for the top-seeded Flyers who are down 3-1 in the series and now underdogs in Game 5. Another loss would obviously mean they’re done and what a shock that would be considering how hot they were prior to facing the Islanders. After sweeping the round robin games (to earn the #1 seed in the East), they’d won 12 of 13 going back to February and had the league’s best overall record since mid-January. They eliminated Montreal in six games in Round 1.

But the Islanders are now the East’s “new” hot team. They are 10-3 here in the bubble as they needed just four games to oust Florida in the qualification series, five to get rid of Washington in the last round and now stand one win away from the franchise’s 1st Conference Finals since 1993. What’s amazing is that the Isles had lost their last seven games when the season was halted back in March. They had a -1 goal differential for the season.

This will be the first time in the bubble that the Flyers are coming off B2B losses and the first time it’s happened since a four-game losing streak in early January. Note the consecutive losses came on B2B days following some time off for the protests. Now they are rested and fighting for their playoff lives. They are 40-18 L58 times playing on 1 days rest. Don’t be surprised if the Islanders tighten up a bit. 9* Philadelphia

10* Colorado (6:05 ET): I was absolutely floored that the Avalanche were down 0-2 in this series. Not only did I consider them overwhelming favorites to advance past the Stars, I also had them on my short list to win the Stanley Cup! Thankfully, they bounced back with a commanding 6-4 win in Game 3. They're now one win away from evening this series back up at 2-2 and I believe that's what's going to happen Sunday evening. 

Also shocking was HOW Dallas has won the first two games. They scored five goals in both. Over the L6 games, they have have scored 5+ goals FOUR times. For a frame of reference, this team scored 5+ goals only three times in its 69 regular season games! Of the eight conference semifinalists, no team had scored fewer goals this year. This six-game run (28 goals scored) has come on the heels of them being 12 seconds away from being down 3-1 in the series with a bad Calgary team. 

I think the Stars run of scoring more than expected is due to come to an end tonight. In just the last five games, they have scored on 15.3% of all shot attempts, which is beyond unsustainable. The Avs are without Philipp Grubauer, but I continue to point to the fact that backup Pavel Francouz shut the Stars out when these teams met in the round robin. This is the cheapest that the Avs have been on the money line for any game in this series. I'll grab them. 10* Colorado

8* Vegas (9:45 ET): I’m 2 for 2 in this series. I had the Under in Game 1 (5-0 Vegas win) and then took Vancouver +1.5 in Game 2 (they won “outright” 5-2).  That Vegas was able to blank the Canucks in Game 1 didn’t surprise me. I wrote the following in my analysis before the series opener … “One thing about Vancouver that sticks out to me is the fact they have scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far. That seems unsustainable.” Sure enough, I was correct (at least for Game 1)..

Though I took Vancouver on the puck line for Game 2 and gave them a very good shot at winning, you can imagine my surprise when they blitzed the Golden Knights for five goals of their own. It was 2-0 just 11 minutes in and from there the Canucks never let up, particularly dominating face-offs (which they are known to do). They also blocked 40 shots, just one shy of the NHL playoff record for a game ending in regulation.

Vegas had a 40-27 edge in shots on goal in Game 2, so they shouldn’t hang their heads too much. Getting back to all the blocked shots, the Golden Knights had an incredible 50-11 edge in shot attempts in the second period alone! It was the first time in 12 meetings they lost to the Canucks in regulation (9-1-2 all-time head to head record). The Knights have also yet to drop B2B games this postseason and have scored 4+ goals in 7 of their 10 games. They are a big favorite here for a reason and won’t drop two in a row. 8* Vegas

10* Colorado (10:35 ET): I am absolutely floored that the Avalanche are down 0-2 in this series. Not only did I consider them overwhelming favorites to advance past the Stars, I also had them on my short list to win the Stanley Cup.  Hoisting the Cup is now the furthest thing from the players’ minds as all they are looking for is one win right now. I believe they’ll get that win tonight. I realize I said the same thing prior to both Games 1 & 2, but the “third time will be the charm.” 

Also shocking is HOW Dallas has won the first two games. They’ve scored five goals in both. The Stars have won five in a row, including FOUR 5+ goal games. For a frame of reference, this team scored 5+ goals only three times in its 69 regular season games. Of the eight conference semifinalists, no team had scored fewer goals this year. This five-game run (24 goals scored) has been on the heels of them being 12 seconds away from being down 3-1 in the series with a bad Calgary team. Like I said earlier, I am absolutely floored here. 

Colorado continues to play without Philipp Grubauer and Erik Johnson. I don’t think it’s fair to pin the flood of Dallas goals on Grubauer’s absence. Backup Pavel Francouz is capable of beating the Stars as he shut them out, 4-0, in the round robin game. The Avs were up 2-0 in Game 2 when all of sudden things started to go very wrong with the Stars getting TWO goals 43 seconds apart (on a 5 on 3) and then there was a controversial goal allowed near the end of the period. The Avs outshot the Stars 40-27 in Game 2 and I still think they are the better team here. 10* Colorado

10* Colorado (9:45 ET): I was absolutely shocked at the result in Game 1 of this series. Not only because the heavily favored Avalanche lost, but also due to the fact they gave up five goals. Dallas is not known as any kind of offensive juggernaut. In fact, of the eight remaining teams, they scored the fewest number of regular season goals. However, all of a sudden, they have scored 5+ goals in four of their last six games. I don’t see that continuing though and the Avs (the much better team here) will come through with a big ‘W’ in Game 2.

Coming into the playoffs, Colorado was a team I’d earmarked for success due to the fact they led all Western Conference teams with a +46 goal differential when the season was paused back in March. They’d lost just one time in regulation (Game 3 to Arizona) here in the bubble before losing Saturday. They bounced back from that previous regulation defeat with back to back 7-1 wins. You may recall that in the round robin format, I took the Avs when they played Dallas and that was a 4-0 win.

It’s very surprising to me that 4-0 win in the round robin is Colorado’s only win in five tries vs. Dallas this season. The Avs - by the numbers - are the much better side in this series. Coming into the series, their 3.88 goals per game average and their 1.63 gpg allowed average were both league bests since the restart. Goalie Philipp Grubauer was sporting a .953 save percentage. That he’s injured doesn’t matter as it was Pavel Francouz that shut the Stars out in the round robin. The Stars got to play a weak Calgary team in the last round and I remain unsold. This is a big play for me. 10* Colorado

10* Colorado (8:05 ET): So the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs gets underway on Saturday. Colorado was already a team I’d earmarked for success this postseason due to the fact they led all Western Conference teams with a +46 goal differential when the season was paused back in March. They’ve lost just one time (Game 3 to Arizona) in regulation here in the bubble and since then they’ve won two straight in 7-1 fashion. You may recall that in the round robin format, I took the Avs when they played Dallas and that was a 4-0 win. 

I see no reason to expect the Avalanche to slow down anytime soon. Their 3.88 goals per game average as well as their 1.63 gpg allowed average are both league bests since the restart. Goalie Philipp Grubauer is sporting a .953 save percentage and he wasn’t even the one that shut the Stars out back on August 5th (that was Pavel Francouz). I think that right now you have to consider the Avs as the Stanley Cup favorites. 

Dallas did win all four regular season matchups with Colorado, but that meant nothing in the game 17 days ago and means even less now. The Stars had lost eight straight games (going back to March) when they beat St. Louis 2-1 on August 9th (on three days rest). Then they got to face a weak Calgary team in the first round. The quicker turnaround between series (just 1 day as opposed to 2 for Colorado) does them no favors. The Stars simply lack the firepower necessary to keep up with the high-flying Avs, who have four wins by three goals or more in the bubble. Dallas’ seven-goal outburst in the close out game vs. Calgary, where they had to rally from a three-goal deficit, was a total anomaly. 10* Colorado

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Flyers get a second chance to put away the Canadiens on Friday. They failed to do so in Game 5 where they lost 5-3. For the most part, they’ve kept the Habs in check offensively in this series. In the three wins, they’ve posted two shutouts and allowed just one goal overall. But in both losses, they’ve been scored on five times. Seems to me that Montreal would be better served “saving” some of these goals for other games. As good as Carey Price has been in goal for them, the Habs are a 12-seed and they go home after tonight.

Going back to mid-January, Philadelphia has been the hottest team in the league. Wednesday marked just the second loss in the bubble for the Flyers, who earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference by sweeping their round robin games. In the six wins, they’ve allowed a total of just four goals. In the two losses to Montreal, that number jumps to 10. Interestingly enough, the Flyers also had their highest scoring game of the series in Game 5 with all three goals coming from the power play. They’ve only scored eight times in this series, but remember they had 10 goals in the three round-robin games. 

Price is obviously the main reason Montreal has made it thus far. He has a .943 save percentage in the bubble with a pair of shutouts. However, Carter Hart of Philadelphia has an ever so slightly better save percentage (.944) and his two shutouts have both been in this series. The Habs won’t have Brandon Gallagher anymore as he suffered a broken jaw in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Flyers have won the L6 times they have been off a game in which they allowed 5+ goals. 10* Philadelphia

6* Vegas (10:35 ET): After failing in their first try to do so, look for Vegas to finish off Chicago Tuesday night. Game 4 was the Golden Knights first loss since the restart. Granted they’d been “living dangerously” in a few of the wins, but they are clearly the more talented side here compared to the 12th seeded Blackhawks, a team that was in last place of the Central Division when the season was paused back in March. The fact Vegas outshot Chicago 49-25 in Game 4 should not be overlooked. 

"When they've been better than us, they've been way better than us," said Chicago coach Jeremy Colliton in reference to the Golden Knights. That about sums up the series to me. As good as Blackhawks’ goalie Corey Crawford (48 saves) was Sunday night, he’s not going to be able to bail his team out of this series hole. Vegas hasn’t even scored a power play goal in the series yet, going 0 for 9 when on the man advantage. They’ve outshot their opponents in five of seven games so far, often holding large advantages. 

Since coming into existence three years ago, Vegas has had Chicago’s number. They’ve won 11 of the 13 all-time head to head matchups. Again, this was a real fortunate draw for the Golden Knights. By sweeping their round robin games, they earned the #1 seed and drew the #12 seed. Vegas is 7-1 SU when coming off a game where they scored two or fewer goals. 6* Vegas

10* Boston (8:05 ET): The “demise” of the Bruins has clearly been exaggerated. While they did lose all three round robin games, it can’t be forgotten that no team had more points when the season was paused back in March. They made the Stanley Cup Finals last year AND had the 2020 season’s best goal differential. Judging them based on a three-game sample size would be a mistake. Boston now leads this best of seven series with Carolina 2 games to 1 after taking Game 3 by a score of 3-1.

While Carolina came into this series on a real “high” (swept the Rangers in the qualification round), the Bruins have definitely had their number the last few seasons. The Hurricanes have only been able to win two of the previous 14 head to head meetings and that includes the victory in Game 2 of this series. Boston has outshot the Canes’ substantially in this series (+30), holding an edge of at least +9 in every game. 

Obviously, the big story moving forward for Boston is how do they handle the loss of goalie Tuukka Rask, who decided to opt out of the rest of the season. Rask is a big loss, but backup Jaroslav Halak came in and played very well in Game 3. As big of a deal as Rask opting out is, Carolina potentially losing Andrei Svechnikov for the rest of the series may very well be bigger given the Hurricanes have less depth compared to the Bruins. 10* Boston

8* St. Louis (10:35 ET): Forget about repeating, the Blues’ season is on the brink right now as they find themselves in an 0-2 series hole to Vancouver. The Blues are the ONLY team in the league not to have won a game since the restart and another loss tonight would all but end their hopes of B2B Stanley Cups. I’m going to keep the faith one last time with this club as Vancouver has been scoring at an unsustainable rate thus far in the bubble. I’m banking that can’t continue. 

The Canucks were shutout in their first game by Minnesota, losing 3-0. Since then, they have averaged 4.2 goals and won all five games. But what’s crazy about their scoring average is that they are getting off only 27.0 shots per game, which is among the lowest numbers in the entire bubble! The shooting percentage in those L5 games is a ridiculous 15.6%. They just can’t keep doing that. 

The Blues’ Game 2 loss was the second time in five games they lost in overtime. Another loss came at the buzzer (literally) of regulation while another saw them lose a two-goal lead. That they were able to fight back in the third period and force OT Friday should be taken as a positive sign. I just feel that they are due to breakthrough for a win here. 8* St. Louis

10* St. Louis (6:35 ET): The Blues are in desperate need of a win Friday, something they have not done going all the way back to March 11th. They dropped all three games in the round-robin format, causing them to drop from the 1-seed to the 4-seed. Then they lost Game 1 to the Canucks by a score of 5-2. They are the only team still playing yet to win a game in the bubble. With their backs against the wall, I like their chances of “circling the wagons” for Game 2 and picking up the victory. 

The disturbing trend for the Blues here in Edmonton has been their play in the third period. They have been outscored 9-0 in the 3P of the four games including 3-0 by the Canucks on Wednesday. Prior to that, they’d lost a game to Colorado at the buzzer, blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas and lost in a shootout to Dallas. So they’ve been in every game. It should be noted that the Blues have never lost more than four in a row all season. The last losing streak to go longer than that was in February of 2018. 

Goalie Jordan Binnington had an 8-2 record w/ a 1.78 goals against average and .937 save percentage off a loss in LY’s playoff run (which of course resulted in the Blues winning the Stanley Cup). Vancouver’s shooting percentage so far is 12.3%, which is really high and isn’t likely to continue. Knowing that teams who take the first two games go on to win the series over 86% of the time, the Blues basically have to win today. They will. 10* St. Louis

10* Colorado (5:30 ET): I just don’t see Arizona as being capable of making this into a competitive series. Thus, I’ll be backing the Avalanche here in Game 1. I’ve previously espoused the virtues of the Avs many times. While they failed to come through for me Saturday against Vegas, a loss which cost them the #1 seed in the Western Conference, they did get the job done against Dallas in 4-0 fashion. They went 2-0-1 in the round robin format, outshooting and out-possessing each opponent. They are, at least on paper, the West’s best team. 

The Coyotes entered the playoffs as an 11-seed. I did think they got a favorable draw in the qualification series with Nashville, whom they ousted in just four games. It was the franchise’s first series win since 2012. That it came right after their GM abandoned them had to feel good. But the ‘Yotes are in over their head now in the Round of 16. Of all 12 playoff teams in the Western side of the draw, they scored the second fewest goals (ahead of only Dallas). 

The key to the series for Arizona is going to be goalie Darcy Keumper, who was lights out against the Predators. He had a .933 save percentage in the four games, pretty remarkable considering he faced 163 shots. That was the most shots faced by any goalie in the previous round. Unfortunately for Keumper, Colorado averaged 37.7 shots/game in the round-robin and they led the Western Conf in goals during the regular season. Arizona allowed 11 goals in four games last round while the Avs allowed just five in three games. 10* Colorado

6* Vegas (10:35 ET): Chicago has taken full advantage of the NHL’s 24-team bubble. Making the playoffs is something that would NOT have happened under ordinary circumstances. After all, the Blackhawks were in last place in the Central at the time of the stoppage. But by taking three of four from Edmonton in the qualification series, here they are in the Round of 16. But all that earned them was a date with now top-seeded Vegas and unlike Edmonton, the Golden Knights are hitting their stride at the right time. 

One could also say the Knights have taken advantage of this unique format. While they were leading the Pacific Division at the time of the stoppage, they would not have been the West’s #1 overall seed. They are now though, thanks to going 3-0 in round robin play. They averaged 5.0 goals in the three wins. Another thing worth noting is how the Golden Knights have terrorized the Blackhawks throughout their existence. They’ve won 9 of 10 all-time meetings. 

The Blackhawks are a 12-seed that probably shouldn’t be here. They had just 72 points. That’s the fewest of any team left with the exception of Montreal, the original 12-seed from the East that can at least claim a top tier goaltender. Here in the playoffs, they’ve been outshot. Not the case with Vegas, who is only allowing 26.3 shots per game since the restart. Keep in mind that the Knights swept their round robin games despite not having the services of Max Pacioretty, who led the team in goals/points in the reg season. He’s now expected back for Game 1.  6* Vegas

7* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): Some will consider this a “nightmare” matchup for the Lightning as they face the team that shockingly swept them in the 1st round of LY’s playoffs. That would be Columbus, who outlasted Toronto in a wild five-game qualification series to get here. Tampa Bay had the chance to be the East’s top seed for a third year in a row, but lost 4-1 to Philadelphia on Saturday, setting up the matchup here.

The Lightning should be highly motivated coming into this series. When they faced Columbus in last year’s playoffs, they were coming off a historically great regular season, which made the four-game sweep all the more head-scratching. This has obviously been a much different season. Still, TB had the 2nd most points and was in position to earn the top seed. They won their first two round-robin games by 3-2 scores over Washington and Boston and did so w/o Steven Stamkos.

When Stamkos will return to the ice remains a question mark and now defenseman Victor Hedman is out as well after sustaining a lower-body injury during the loss to Philly. This is hardly ideal when going into a pressure-filled matchup, but I think the Lightning take care of business in Game 1. Columbus had to play five games against Toronto. They got great goaltending in that series, but TB led the league in goals during the regular season. The Blue Jackets actually had a negative goal differential (-7) this year. 7* Tampa Bay

8* St. Louis (3:05 ET): Saturday determined the 1-seeds in the respective conferences, but Sunday is all about who gets seeded 3rd and 4th. In the West, St. Louis and Dallas have each opened 0-2. With all the upsets that transpired over in the qualification series, even the loser here is going to get a weaker than expected Round of 16 playoff opponent. It comes down to the simple fact that I think the Blues are the better team.

St. Louis came into the bubble having finished first in the regular season with 94 points, two more than Colorado and eight more than Vegas, the two teams that will play Saturday to determine the #1 seed. Losses to the Avs (2-1) and Golden Knights (6-4) mean the Blues can finish no higher than 3rd when the playoffs get going proper. Worth noting that the loss to the Avs came at the buzzer and then the Blues led the Golden Knights 2-0 early in the 2nd period. So being 0-2 is a tough pill to swallow.

As for Dallas, they too blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas (ended up losing 5-3) and then were shutout by the Avalanche 4-0. This was one of the coldest teams in the league at the time of the shutdown. They’re actually now on an 8-game losing streak going back to March. The Stars’ goal differential for the season is now negative while the Blues can still claim to be +29. I concede that St. Louis hasn’t looked great in either game and Vladimir Tarasenko’s injury is a concern. But they’ve taken six of the last seven meetings w/ Dallas, who isn’t in the same league as either Colorado or Vegas. 8* St. Louis

10* Colorado (3:05 ET): It’s important to note that the official start time of this game is still being worked out. It’s contingent on the results of Friday and how many (if any) qualification series are still ongoing. Regardless of WHEN the puck drops, I like the Avalanche in this battle for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Both they and the Golden Knights are 2-0. But Vegas has had to come back from multi-goal deficits in both games. Colorado had the “buzzer-beater” against St. Louis, but then turned in a dominant 4-0 win over Dallas on Wednesday, which was another game where we backed the Avs. 

In position to grab the top seed in the West, one could argue the Avs are deserving of being in this spot. They owned the best goal differential among Western Conference teams before the lockdown (+46). League-wide, only the Bruins and Lightning outscored their opponents by a wider margin. The Avs have also been an exceptional road team all year long with a league-best 26-11-2 SU record (including the bubble). They've had an extra day to prepare for this all-important showdown as well. 

The underdog is 4-0 SU the past four head-to-head meetings between these two clubs. Unfortunately for Vegas, they were the favorite in all four games! Earlier this year, the Avs dealt them two blowout losses with a 13-4 goal advantage. Now Colorado lines up as the favorite. That the Golden Knights have given up seven goals in two games is a bit concerning. The Avs have allowed just one and bring a five-period shutout streak into Saturday’s showdown. I look for Colorado to earn the #1 seed. 10* Colorado

10* Edmonton (6:35 ET): The Oilers are on the brink here, facing elimination, which wasn’t supposed to be the case as they entered the series as the #5 seed while Chicago was #12. The Blackhawks were last in the Central when the season shutdown but haven’t looked like a place team in a wild, high-scoring series that has seen 13 goals scored per side. Five of Edmonton’s goals have come from Connor McDavid, so he certainly hasn’t been the problem. Goaltending clearly has for the Oilers as Mike Smith was horrendous in Game 1 and Mikko Koskinen has been no better in the last two. Still, I look for McDavid and the Oilers to force a deciding Game 5.

Goaltending has been no “walk in the park” for Chicago either. Corey Crawford has a 4.33 GAA and .859 save percentage thus far in the series. Those numbers are worse than Koskinen’s. Though they need to be given credit for winning twice so far, I’m just not a believer in this Blackhawks club that is just 10-25 SU their L35 games playing on a single day’s rest. 

Edmonton led Game 3 with just under six minutes remaining. So they let one slip away. Let’s also not forget that they are playing on their home rink here. While home ice advantage obviously doesn’t mean what it normally would in this scenario, the Oilers still should have the edge as the host team for the Western Conference hub. I just can’t see them losing for a third time in four tries as a favorite. 10* Edmonton

10* Colorado (6:35 ET): The Avs pulled the proverbial “rabbit out of their hat” Sunday, beating the Blues at the buzzer. The 2-1 win was a nice start to round robin play for a team that I felt was the best in the West pre-lockdown. No other team in the conference could match the Avalanche’s +46 goal differential. Having already dispatched the reigning Stanley Cup Champs (and the team with the most points in the West this year), it shouldn’t prove difficult to defeat the weakest team in the West’s round robin format, that being Dallas. 

The Stars have now technically lost seven straight games after Monday’s 5-3 setback at the hands of Vegas. That was a brutal loss in the sense that Dallas blew a 3-1 lead, giving up four goals in the third period. That will be tough to overcome. Colorado will NOT be lacking for motivation here as they were 0-2-2 vs. the Stars in the regular season. 

Despite the head to head results, I would deem it “laughable” to consider the Stars as the better side here. They had a goal differential of only +3 before the season got shut down. That was only eighth best among Western Conference teams. I am anticipating the Avalanche winning the round robin format while the Stars were my pick to finish last. Thus, the play here is automatic. 10* Colorado

7* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): One would surmise that the Penguins are likely to even this series back up after a surprising overtime loss in Game 1. It was a tough loss to take as the Pens outshot the Canadiens 41-35 and were just 1 for 7 on the power play including coming up empty on THREE different 5 on 3 chances. That’s a game they should have won and obviously falling into an 0-2 hole in a best of five series is something that must be avoided at all costs. 

Montreal is lucky to even be in the postseason as they are seeded 12th and had seven fewer points than every other Eastern Conference club in the field. As we saw in Game 1, Carey Price gives them a shot, but I just don’t think he can carry them to victory over a superior side like the Penguins. The Habs were outscored over the course of this season and were basically a .500 team in regulation. 

It remains to be seen who Pittsburgh goes with in goal here, but it’s worth mentioning that Tristan Jarry had a better save percentage than Price this year. Assuming they get a similar number of opportunities, I don’t think we’re going to see the Penguins whiff like they did Saturday. They’ve still won 7 of their last 10 vs. Montreal. 7* Pittsburgh

10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): The Lightning were just starting to hit their stride when the coronavirus hit. They were inching closer to Boston for the top spot in the Atlantic and had the 2nd most points in the entire Eastern Conference. They also had the best goal differential in the league (+50) besides the Bruins. Washington, who had 90 points, outscored its opponents by basically only half that margin and wasn’t looking nearly as dominant. I’m looking for a statement win by TB here today. 

Now the Lightning did lose all three times they faced the Capitals this year. But all three games were played before X-Mas, prior to when TB really started to get its act together. Washington has goaltending concerns heading into the tournament as Braden Holtby has no backup. That would be fine if Holtby was having a good season, but his save percentage this year was down under .900. As a reminder, the Lightning led the league in goals scored.

Tampa looked dominant in a tuneup vs. Florida last week, winning 5-0. Their top line looked sharp and that has to be scary for the rest of the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy had another strong campaign between the pipes, so the Lightning are fine there. This is a really good value on the superior side. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Vancouver (10:35 ET): Yes, Minnesota is a veteran club with more playoff experience than Vancouver. But I felt the Canucks were the better team this year and they’re poised to potentially pull an “upset” in this qualification series, which counts as their first postseason experience since 2015. Vancouver had a +11 goal differential in 69 games whereas the Wild allowed the same exact number they scored. This is a solid value on the team with better goaltending.

Jacob Markstrom is going to be the key for the Canucks to win this series. The netminder was a borderline Vezina finalist this year with a .918 save percentage and 2.75 GAA. Again, I give him the edge over counterpart Alex Stalock, who is the only reliable option left for the Wild after Devan Dubnyk fell apart this year. 

The Wild would not have even made the postseason were it not for the expanded format. Meanwhile, Vancouver sat 4th in the Pacific and was just above the cutline. The Canucks also boast the better top line. 10* Vancouver

10* Edmonton (3:05 ET): While no fans will be in attendance and travel is not an issue, the Oilers still have an edge with the Western Conference “bubble” being in Edmonton. The players know the rink well (Rogers Place). While the Oilers are in the qualification round, their first round opponent is the Chicago Blackhawks, who are - objectively speaking - the weakest team remaining in the 24-team field. At least in the West, they are. At the time of the stoppage, the Blackhawks were last in the Central Division with only 72 points. 

Now the Oilers play in the Pacific, which was the weaker of the West’s two divisions. The only three teams not invited to Edmonton all hailed from the Pacific. The Oilers were in 2nd place at the stoppage, with 83 points, and curiously had a losing record in regulation here at home. However, while they were 1-2 vs. Chicago in the regular season, both losses were on the road. They won the only home game. Edmonton clearly will have the two best players on the ice in this series - Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The Blackhawks should feel fortunate to even be in a playoff scenario. Clearly they were not preparing for a postseason run when they were sellers back at the league’s trade deadline. Furthermore, this is a team that was 26th in expected goal differential. Quite frankly, the ‘Hawks just aren’t very good. 10* Edmonton

7* Pittsburgh (7:08 ET): Thanks to the Capitals losing last night, the Penguins stayed within six points of the division lead. But the news isn’t all good in the Steel City. Passed by the in-state rival Flyers, the Pens are now in third in the Metro and have dropped B2B games. Both losses came at home over the weekend, 5-2 to the Caps and 6-2 to the Hurricanes. While they have to hit the road tonight, at least they’ll be facing the last place Devils, who don’t present the same kind of challenges compared to the L2 opponents. 

The Penguins’ only two wins in their last 10 games came against Ottawa and Buffalo, two teams that are out of contention just like New Jersey is. While Devils do come into Tuesday having scored a total of 10 goals in B2B wins, they still have their fair share of issues. They are just 5-9 SU this season following a win by 2+ goals. They beat the Rangers Saturday by a score of 6-4. They are 12-19 SU after giving up 4+ goals in their previous game.

Despite being division rivals, these teams haven’t met since November. The Penguins took the last meeting by a score of 4-1. Despite the money line being somewhat inflated here, I still think it’s a good price on the favorite, given the situation. New Jersey has simply not demonstrated an ability to play consistently well over any sustained period of time. 7* Pittsburgh

8* Colorado (10:35 ET): Going by goal differential, which I believe is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record, the Avalanche are “head and shoulders” the best team in the Western Conference this season. They’ve outscored their opposition by 47 goals this season. The only other team in the conference with a differential higher than +15 is the one the Avs are chasing in the Central Division (St. Louis), who is at +31. Keep this in mind when it comes time to handicap the playoffs. 

Los Angeles has picked a curious time to play its best hockey of the season. They’ve won a season-high five straight including a shocking 7-3 win over Minnesota on Saturday. But the Kings are still a last place club and shouldn’t be taken all that seriously. They are certainly not in Colorado’s class and I’m expecting the home team to get a serious “reality check” tonight.

The Avs just won here in LA a few weeks ago (2-1), avenging a 3-1 loss they suffered in Denver the week prior. Will it really be a season sweep by the road team? Yes. The Avalanche have dominated sub-.500 foes, going 11-2 SU in such games in the second half of the season. They just won in San Jose last night and have 30 more points than the Kings on the year. 8* Colorado

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): It’s been a topsy-turvy race all season in the NHL’s Pacific Division, which Vegas now leads on the strength of a 10-2 run in their L12 games. But the lead is still only two points over Edmonton, which is where the Golden Knights will be tonight. They won in Calgary last night, 5-3, a nice rebound from their 4-0 loss in Winnipeg two days prior. But pulling off an “Alberta sweep” should prove to be too difficult as the Knights have won here only one time in franchise history. This is their first visit of the season. 

The Oilers come into tonight’s showdown having won four of five. They easily defeated Columbus here at home Friday by a score of 4-1. This is a team that’s had to play six of its last eight games on the road. Tonight is the first time they’ve gotten to play two in a row at home since 2/19-2/21. It’s also a revenge spot as they lost 3-0 out in Vegas on 2/26. Early in the season, Edmonton did go out to Sin City and record a 4-2 victory. 

 While you’ve got to tip your cap to the way Vegas has played lately, the Oilers have been every bit as hot recently. Connor McDavid has 15 points in the eight games since he returned from injury. Goaltender Mikko Koskinen made 45 saves in the win over Columbus. If there was a time where the Golden Knights were likely to “slip up,” it would be here as they’re in the second night of a back to back and facing a revenge-minded team. It’s been over a month since Vegas last won B2B road games. 10* Edmonton

10* Dallas (2:05 ET): The Stars appeared poised to make it a three-horse race (w/ St. Louis & Colorado) in the Central Division, but a four-game losing streak has not only knocked them off the pace but also slimmed their lead for third place. This afternoon sees them welcoming in Nashville for a critical game as the Predators are just trying to break into the playoff field as they are currently two points back of the Wild Card. These teams just met in Music City Thursday with the Preds turning in a 2-0 shutout. 

One thing the Stars do very well is not give up many goals. In fact, only one other team (Boston) has given up fewer on the season. The problem has been scoring goals as the Stars actually rank very close to the bottom of the league (26th) in that regard. That issue certainly reared its ugly head Thursday in Nashville where they were blanked for the fifth time this season. But three of the previous four games saw them score at least three times. 

Both goals allowed on Thursday came via the power play. Penalty killing has been an issue of late for the Stars as they’ve allowed NINE PP goals in their L9 games. However, they’re still doing an excellent job 5 on 5 and should be particularly stingy here as they give up just 2.2 goals per game on home ice. Nashville had dropped three in a row itself before the win Thursday and it’s been almost a month since they won on the road. I think this is where the Stars circle the proverbial wagon. 10* Dallas

9* Washington (7:05 ET): The division leading Capitals figured they’d be getting a tough challenge from the Penguins at this point of the season. Sure enough, the Pens are only four points back of them in the Metro standings. But Philadelphia is even closer, now just one point back after winning seven in a row. So for Washington, tonight’s game is hugely important as they look to maintain first place. They face a Rangers team that has cooled off all of a sudden w/ three straight losses, the last two coming at home. 

New York is still stuck in 7th place in the Metro, which is where they’ve been most of the season. They are three points out of the Wild Card, but would also need to jump Carolina. They’d won 9 of 10, but then ran into the aforementioned Flyers, who swept them in a home and home. Then came a 3-1 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday. Making matters worse is the fact the Rangers lost Chris Krieder for 4-6 weeks over the weekend. 

Despite being division rivals, these teams haven’t played since November. That’s good for the Rangers because they’ve lost 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings. They did win the last one, but Washington figures to be a lot more desperate here after they too fell victim to the Flyers last night. Luckily, the Caps are 6-3 SU in the second night of a back to back and 16-5 SU after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game (it was a 5-2 loss last night). 9* Washington

7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): For much of the 1st half of the season, I told you Tampa Bay was a “sleeping giant.” Their YTD goal differential has always been one of the league’s best this year, plus let us not forget this team had the best regular season in the history of the league a year ago. Sure enough, right after the All-Star Break, the Lightning ripped off a franchise-best 11-game win streak that propelled them near the top of the league standings. Unfortunately though, they’ve since dropped five of six and have fallen nine points back of the first place Bruins, who beat them 2-1 on Tuesday.

Tonight seems like a safe bet for the Lightning to bounce back though as they host Montreal. While the Canadiens are flirting with playoff contention, they remain seven points back of where they need to be. Back to back wins over teams that they are chasing (Carolina, Islanders) have definitely helped the Habs’ cause, but they look to be overmatched here against a team that has beaten them 9 of the last 11 meetings.

The Lightning are 3 for 3 in head to head meetings w/ the Habs this season and two of those wins came in Montreal. The Habs have lost five straight times here in TB where the Lightning are 21-10-2 SU and averaging nearly 4.0 goals per game. It’s not just Montreal, but the entire Atlantic Division that the Lightning have dominated this year. They are 16-4 SU in division games, winning by a solid 1.3 gpg average. They are also 5-1 SU this season following a game in which they scored 1 goal or less. 7* Tampa Bay

10* Nashville (8:05 ET): From here on out, almost every game pitting Western Conference teams against one another will have some sort of bearing on the playoff picture. Take this one, for example. Edmonton is in second place in the Pacific Division, but only four points ahead of the ninth place team in the Conference. Nashville is one of three teams tied for the final Wild Card spot. I think the sense of desperation is going to be greater here for the Predators, who are at home. 

The Preds did just drop a game on home ice Saturday, but that was to a very good Colorado club that I consider to be the best team in all of the Western Conference. Before losing that game, Nashville had won three straight here at Bridgestone Arena. Their overall home record this season is a little disappointing, but they’ve played some of their best hockey all season recently in a 10-5-1 SU stretch. Also, take this for what it’s worth - the Preds are 40-12 SU their L52 Monday games. They seem to know how to start the week off right! 

Edmonton comes in off a 3-2 win over Winnipeg Sat night, but that was at home and prior to it, they’d dropped 4 of 5 including road losses to Anaheim and Vegas. This team is just 7-15 SU off its L22 wins. Prior to losing a couple head to head matchups earlier this season, Nashville definitely had the Oilers number, winning 14 of the previous 15 meetings. 10* Nashville

8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): This is not a good time to be backing New Jersey as the last place team from the Metro will be playing its third road game in four nights as well as the second game of a back to back. Tonight marks the end of the dreaded “Southern California swing” as the Devils have previously lost in San Jose and Los Angeles and now head to Anaheim. The Ducks await where they’ll be fresh off two consecutive wins, the last one coming against Pittsburgh. I haven’t backed Anaheim much this season, but this is a great spot to do so. 

The Ducks, like the Devils, won’t be making the playoffs this season. They are tied with the Sharks for 6th in the Pacific at 60 points. But it’s important to note that the team we’re getting on the ice tonight doesn’t necessarily resemble the one we’ve seen for the balance of the season. This was an active team at the trade deadline with seven trades made in total, six of them on Monday. The newcomers are paying dividends so far as they led the way in Friday’s upset of Pittsburgh. 

Making the situation even worse for New Jersey is the fact last night’s game went into overtime. It was their second straight OT loss, so you have to wonder how much they have left in the tank for this one. Despite beating Anaheim (at home) back in December, the Devils have lost 9 of the last 12 head to head meetings. The new-look Ducks get their revenge here as they take care of a NJ club that is just 1-5 SU if they went to OT the previous day. 8* Anaheim

10* Washington (8:05 ET): The Capitals have gotten a huge break w/ their chief rival (Pittsburgh) losing six in a row. Their next closest competition is now actually the Flyers, who are three points behind. That’s obviously still a really tight margin and Thursday’s 3-0 loss in Winnipeg did the Caps no favors. But in the previous two games, they scored a total of nine goals. While those were both at home, there’s actually zero dropoff in terms of goals scored at home vs. on the road for this club.

Minnesota is also off a shutout in its last game, though theirs was a dominant 5-0 win over Columbus. It was the Wild’s third straight victory as they are trying just to get into the playoffs over in the Western Conference. The way things stand now, they are one point back of a three-way tie for the final Wild Card. The current stretch is among the very best we’ve seen all season from them, but I’m not convinced it can be sustained. They’ve recently beaten a Columbus team that is really struggling - twice - and Detroit who is the worst team in the league. 10* Washington

10* Florida (6:05 ET): This is an incredibly important game for the Panthers. They just lost to Toronto on Thursday (5-3 here at home), leaving them four points back of third place in the Atlantic. Of course, the other way the Panthers can make the playoffs is the Wild Card. But in that race, they are competing with a litany of teams from the Metro. While also four points back of the WC, Florida would need to jump THREE teams to get that final spot. Needless to say, getting the two points tonight is a virtual “must.”

Florida’s opponent Saturday is in last place in its division. That would be Chicago, over in the Central. The Blackhawks did pull off a “real stunner” the other night when they went to Tampa Bay and prevailed 5-2 as a +195 ML underdog. But don’t let that one win confuse you. The Blackhawks have still won just 3 of their previous 12 games and it’s been over a month since they last posted B2B victories.

In that loss to Toronto on Thursday, the Panthers blew a 2-goal lead. Given the stakes that were involved, that has to be terribly disappointing. While there’s been little in the way of home ice advantage here in Sunrise, the Panthers do average a healthy 3.6 goals per game here. The fact Florida has lost all five home games since the All-Star Break will have them supremely motivated here. 10* Florida

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): If you presume that both Washington and Pittsburgh are “locks” to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs (probably true), then that means only one other team from the Metro is guaranteed a postseason spot. Now at least two more are likely to make it, but this is a crowded field with five teams currently separated by five points. Philadelphia currently sits in the coveted third place position in the division (behind Wash & Pit) and is actually just one point out of second place. They host the 7th place Rangers in an all-important matchup Friday.

The Flyers have won four straight to vault into third. But they are actually NOT the hottest team in the division right now, the Rangers are. NY has won five straight (and 9 of 10), but as you can see it hasn’t done them much good as they haven’t moved up in the standings at all. That tells you that they really hadn’t been a great team prior. The Flyers have definitely been more consistent this year. 

Several key advantages exist for Philly tonight. One is that the Rangers played in Montreal last night. This will be NY’s third road game in four nights. The Flyers have been one of the league’s best home teams this year, going 22-5-4. That’s the fewest number of home losses in the league. They are also 7-2 SU the L9 head to head meetings w/ the Rangers including 5-1 win in the only previous meeting this season. 10* Philadelphia

7* Washington (7:05 ET): After briefly falling out of first place in the Metro, the Capitals have climbed their way back to the top, thanks to a three-game losing streak by Pittsburgh. But it’s still only a two-point edge over the Pens, meaning tonight’s home game vs. Winnipeg is quite critical. Maybe not as critical as Sunday’s 5-3 win here over Pittsburgh, but the Caps do need this one. Fortunately for them, this will be the Jets’ third road game in four nights. 

Winnipeg is just trying to get into the postseason field. Right now they find themselves one point behind the two Wild Card teams, Calgary and Arizona, who are in the other division. The Jets’ chances of finishing third in their own division are rather small at this point. So it’s going to have to be the Wild Card, if they are to make it into the playoffs. But losses at Philadelphia and Buffalo over the weekend certainly didn’t help. The Jets managed only three goals in the two losses, a far cry from the number they scored (11) in the previous two contests. 

While Washington did lose four in a row before beating Pittsburgh Sunday, I’m quite confident they get the job done here. They remain one of the elite teams in the league and this just isn’t a great spot for Winnipeg to pull an upset. Not only are the Jets just 1-10 SU in the third game of a “3 (games) in 4 nights situation,” but they are also 2-9 SU their L11 times as a ML dog. 7* Washington

8* Nashville (8:05 ET): Columbus might still technically have a hold on the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, but it’s a tenuous one at best and they are sinking fast with a seven-game losing streak. Now four of those Blue Jackets’ losses have taken place after regulation has ended, the most recent being Thursday’s OT loss at home vs. Philly, which was really crucial as it allowed the Flyers to move two points up on them in the standings. My view is that you simply can’t back this club right now. 

Nashville is also fighting for its playoff life. They are two points back of the Wild Card over in the Western Conference, but competing against quite a number of teams (same as C-bus in the East). The Predators, like the Blue Jackets, aren’t exactly in top form coming into Saturday. They’ve lost two straight, scoring just one goal against both Carolina and Chicago. Last night’s 2-1 loss in the Windy City was my 10* Total of the Month (Under). That had more to do w/ the Blackhawks’ recent scoring slump though. It did surprise me that the Preds were able to score only one goal in an OT loss. 

At home, the Preds’ gpg average actually declines greatly. But there are three things working in their favor for this game. One is that they also allow a far fewer number of goals per game at home. Two is that the Bridgestone Arena has been Columbus’ least favorite place to visit through the years as their all-time record here is a pathetic 9-35 SU! Lastly, over the L5 games, the Blue Jackets have allowed a total of 20 goals. 8* Nashville

10* Colorado (10:05 ET): The Avalanche have by far and away the best goal differential in the Western Conference at +42. The next closest team is St. Louis (+18) and only two teams in the East (Boston, TB) can claim better YTD goal differentials. Scoring differential is a metric I value across all sports as it tends to be a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record. So keep an eye on the Avs’ goal differential when you handicap the Western Conference playoff picture moving forward.

That the Avs are so far in front of the field in goal differential, yet only in third place in their own division is perplexing to say the least. Note it’s a very tight race in the Central right now w/ St. Louis, Dallas & Colorado all separated by just three points. But make no mistake about it, after losing three in a row - all at home - the Avalanche desperately need to win tonight’s game.

The Islanders have not had a successful road trip. They’ve scored a grand total of one goal so far, losing all three games. I successfully faded them Monday afternoon in Arizona. While there’s been no losing streak of longer than three games this year for the Isles, facing a team that averages 3.7 gpg at home hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. NY’s scoring average on the road is now down to 2.4 gpg. Colorado is 11-5 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game (lost 4-3 to Tampa Bay Monday). 10* Colorado

6* Montreal (7:35 ET): Both of these teams come into Tuesday on four-game losing streaks. So recent form offers little in the way of advantages either way. But looking at the totality of the season, it’s clear who you want to fade here and that’s Detroit, the consensus worst team in the league. The Red Wings have just 32 points and a -106 goal differential, both easily league’s worsts. To put those numbers in perspective, the next lowest point total in the league is 47 (Kings) while the 2nd worst goal differential is -44 (Ottawa). 

However, there is at least one curious element to this terrible season from the Red Wings. They are 3-0 against Montreal! The Habs might be a slightly below average team, but no one should be losing three times to Detroit. Consider that the Red Wings’ record vs. everyone else is 11-43-4 SU.

Looking at the respective four-game losing streaks, Montreal was able to pick up a point its last time out as it fell in overtime vs. Dallas. They blew a three-goal lead in that game. It’s been a long time since Detroit has been in that kind of position as they have scored only three times total the L3 games and been outscored by 10 goals. They lost 5-1 at Pittsburgh Sunday, troubling because they are a horrifying 4-31 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. I just can’t see the Canadiens losing to the Wings again. They’ve actually performed better on the road this season. 6* Montreal

9* Arizona (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Islanders have not had a strong start to this road trip. They’ve yet to even score a single goal! Shutout losses to Nashville and Vegas leave the Isles in a third place tie in the Metro and a tenuous two points ahead of sixth place Carolina. It’s a very thin line between “in” and “out” of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

The same could be said out West where Arizona is trying to make the playoffs. The Coyotes would currently be a Wild Card, but are tied w/ Calgary and depending what Winnipeg does Sunday night at home vs. Chicago, one of the two Pacific Division teams would be on the outside looking in. Unlike the Islanders, the ‘Yotes do bring a bit of positive momentum in this one as they defeated Washington 3-1 on Saturday. Now they try to win B2B games for the 1st time in over a month. 

While goal scoring has been a problem for NY recently, they are still #6 in the league in goals allowed. But Arizona isn’t too far behind, ranking #9. So the edge the Isles have over most opponents won’t be present here. Plus the Coyotes have the goal scoring advantage here at home, averaging 3.1 gpg here compared to 2.4 for NY on the road. The Islanders are just 1-6 SU their L7 games as a ML dog, all but one of those games taking place on the road. 9* Arizona 

10* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): Chicago is coming off an 8-goal effort last night in Calgary. That sounds all “fine and dandy,” but let’s consider for a moment that the Blackhawks had lost five in a row going into last night and had scored a grand total of eight goals in those five losses. They remain buried in last place of the Central Division with 60 points and while they are still viable for a Wild Card spot, I wouldn’t expect to see this club still playing hockey when the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin in April. 

Winnipeg also needs to make up some ground in order to make the playoffs. They are only three points ahead of Chicago in the standings, but are in fourth place in the division and only three points back of the Wild Card. The top three teams in the Central (St. Louis, Dallas, Colorado) have really solidified themselves, so the only way another Central team is getting into the postseason is through the Wild Card. This game is quite important for both sides.

The Jets recently defeated the Blackhawks, 5-2 here in Winnipeg, which at the time gave them their fourth three-game win streak of the season. Unfortunately, they haven’t won since, dropping two straight at home. Look for this to be the proverbial bounce back spot though. Losing three in a row, all at home, is something that hasn’t happened since October. 10* Winnipeg

8* Boston (3:35 ET): For the balance of the season, Boston has been out in front in the Atlantic Division. They still lead the league with 84 points but Tampa Bay (83 pts) is now hot on the Bruins’ heels, making them probably rue the fact they are a league-worst 0-7 in shootouts. Still the Bruins keep on winning as yday’s 4-1 triumph over league worst Detroit was their eighth win in the last nine contests and avenged the only loss during that time (last Sunday in Detroit). Today they head to MSG where they’ve won three straight times.. 

New York is having an okay season as they are over .500 and have a positive goal differential. They’ve won four straight coming into Sunday. However, they remain in a tough spot as they’re still only in seventh place in the Metro and would need to jump at least three teams in order to get into playoff position. The gap between them and the second Wild Card is currently seven points. The Rangers did not play yesterday.

This is NY’s longest win streak of the season. While they did just beat Columbus (despite facing 37 shots), most of the wins have come against the inferior Western Conference. The Bruins simply have too much offense here as they’ve scored 4+ goals nine times in a 12-3-1 stretch that goes back to early January. I already mentioned the success they’ve had playing in this venue (3-0 L3) and they are 17-8 L25 times taking the ice as a road favorite. The Rangers are 7-18 SU vs. opponents with a .600 or better win percentage. 8* Boston

7* Minnesota (5:05 ET): With San Jose on the second night of a back to back (won 3-2 last night), this seems like an opportune time to fade them. The fact that they won last night in Winnipeg makes the decision to fade somewhat easier. Overall, the Sharks are not having a good season as they’ve been outscored by 39 goals and remain near the bottom of the Western Conference. They’ve somehow managed to win three straight, but that’s a streak I don’t see continuing. 

Over in Minnesota, the Wild are dealing with some unexpected turmoil right now due to the shocking firing of HC Bruce Boudreau. The move came on the heels of the team blowing a 3-1 lead to the Rangers and losing 4-3 in a shootout. But despite shaky goaltending, the Wild are still 7-3-1 their L11 games and very much viable in the playoff race as they are only three points back of the Wild Card. That’s a lot better than San Jose.

Taking Boudreau’s spot behind the bench is interim Dean Evason. He inherits a club that’s 17-8-5 SU at home. Teams typically respond well to a coaching change and that’s what I expect from the Wild tonight. Another motivating factor is that they have lost four in a row to the Sharks. It helps San Jose is being outscored by more than a full goal per game on the road this season. The Sharks’ 2.4 gpg average away from home ranks 26th. They are 2-6 SU playing on back to back days. 7* Minnesota

10* Calgary (10:05 ET): The Flames obviously aren’t as good as they were a season ago, but this looks to be a game where they pick up an easy two points. You may recall Calgary finished first in the entire Western Conference last year. Regression was all but inevitable and right now they are third in the division (Pacific), tied w/ two other teams (Vegas, Arizona). But they are only three points out of first and that’s a lot better than where tonight’s opponent is, that being dead last in both the division and conference! 

The Kings have just 43 points, which is 21 fewer than the Flames. The only team in the league with fewer points in the whole league is Detroit. Los Angeles also has a -47 goal differential, again 2nd worst in the entire league w/ only Detroit worse. It’s one thing to be bad and another to also be in bad form and the Kings happen to be both. They’ve lost five in a row, getting outscored 19-7 in the process. 

Meanwhile, Calgary is coming off B2B 6-2 wins out on the road. They won at Vancouver (1st place team in the Pacific) as well as San Jose. Avenging two early season losses (both in October), the Flames beat the Kings back on 12.7 by a score of 4-3. To me, this line should be north of -200. The Kings are just that bad and I won’t hesitate to fade them at the current price. Overall, LA has lost 13 of 15. They just got back from a winless East Coast trip, so fatigue could be a factor. 10* Calgary

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): For a Monday in February, this shapes up to be a pretty critical game. Both Florida and Philadelphia currently find themselves on the “outside looking in” when it comes to the playoffs. The Flyers are technically tied (w/ Carolina) for the second Wild Card at 67 points. The Panthers are three points back, not to mention two points back of Toronto, who is third in their own division. The problem for Florida here is their recent form. They come in as losers of three in a row and have been outscored 11-4. 

Meanwhile, the Flyers are feeling pretty good about themselves following an impressive 7-2 win at Washington on Saturday. It was their fifth win in the past seven games, all five coming by 3+ goals. One of the two losses was in OT, but it’s the other that should have them quite motivated tonight. Last time playing at home, the Flyers turned in a horrendous effort in getting shutout 5-0 by last place New Jersey. That seems like an anomaly, however, as for the season they’ve gone 18-5-4 SU on home ice. I expect a much better showing tonight obviously.

Florida has been shutout in two of its last three road games plus they were outscored 10-4 in the last two games at home. This downturn follows what had been the hottest stretch of the season for the Panthers as they’d won six in a row. Perhaps the All-Star Break came at the wrong time for them, but whatever the reason for the downturn, I expect it to continue tonight as there’s a big difference in the # of shots these teams have allowed recently (which works in Philly’s favor). 10* Philadelphia

7* NY Rangers (6:05 ET): The Rangers took a tough loss Friday, losing here at home to Buffalo by a score of 3-2. While 11 pts off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference, it’s not like NY is a bad team. They’re in the black when it comes to goal differential. This will be their 4th straight game where I’m playing on or against. Sadly, I’ve been on the wrong end of the last two. I took them against Buffalo and faded when they beat Toronto. Ironically, the one time I was right, they lost here at MSG to Dallas.

However, I was “spot on” playing against the Kings last night as they were blanked 3-0 in New Jersey. That shutout loss kept LA firmly in the basement of the Pacific Division as their 43 points are second fewest in the sport. They also have a -43 goal differential, which is second worst in the sport. This is clearly a very bad team and it only makes sense to fade them in this second night of a back to back. They are 7-15 SU off a loss by 2+ goals. 

As mentioned in yday’s analysis, the Kings have been a dreadful road team this season. They’ve lost 24 of their 32 road games and been outscored by 1.2 goals per game. The Rangers can put goals on the board as they average 3.5 here at home. The Kings simply won’t be able to “keep up” considering they haven’t scored more than three times in any of their last 10 games (1-8-1 SU) and will be facing rookie sensation Igor Shesterkin in goal. He has a .922 save percentage in five starts w/ the team going 4-1. I see this as a total mismatch. 7* NY Rangers

10* New Jersey (7:05 ET): Two struggling teams facing off in East Rutherford, so why the strong opinion? Well, for starters, the Kings are just in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped 11 of 13 w/ all but one of those losses coming in regulation. Here they find themselves in the midst of a four-game road trip out East and the first two games (against Washington and the Islanders) did not go well. New Jersey hasn’t been much better since the All-Star Break, but is coming off a shutout win at Philadelphia (5-0!) on Thursday. 

Poor play in the third period has plagued both clubs. The Kings were bit by that more recently, blowing leads of 2-0 and 3-1 to the Islanders Thursday. They gave up three goals in the third to fall to 8-19-4 SU on the road this season. There are only two teams in the league (Ottawa and Detroit) who have fewer road wins this season. Los Angeles really struggles at both ends of the ice (-1.1 gpg on the road), but giving up 4+ goals EIGHT times in the 2-10-1 stretch has really hurt. There’s nothing here to indicate a turnaround. The Kings are even 7-13 SU when facing fellow teams w/ losing records. 

The Devils were outshot severely in that 5-0 win at Philadelphia two nights ago. But they’ll take the two points after losing three straight here at home - all by one goal. The last time New Jersey won a home game was January 12th against a Tampa Bay team that came in red hot. If they can beat the Lightning, they can certainly beat the Kings. Furthermore, the length of time that has elapsed between home victories should have them highly motivated tonight. 10* New Jersey

7* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): After playing against the Rangers in their last two games (won one, lost one), I’ll back them here against a team that is really struggling and playing on no rest. Buffalo just lost for the fifth time in the last six games last night. It was against Detroit, the worst team in the league. While the Sabres did pick up a point by forcing overtime, they initially trailed 3-0 at home. That’s not good. The Rangers may be second to last in a tough Metropolitan Division, but they have a positive goal differential on the year. 

The Rangers are averaging a healthy 3.5 goals per game here at MSG and shouldn’t have much difficulty scoring tonight against a Sabres team that has given up 10 goals in the last two games. The Blueshirts just hung five goals on a good Toronto team Wednesday night. They’ve won three straight against sub.-500 foes and have really had Buffalo’s number the last few years, going 6-1 SU in seven head to head matchups. That includes 4-0 here at MSG including a 6-2 win back in October. 

The Sabres have a .333 win percentage over the last 28 games, so their struggles aren’t confined to just recent times. They have gone just 8-14-4 SU on the road this season. Only two teams (Ottawa, Detroit) have fewer road victories (ironically both division rivals!). Even worse is the fact Buffalo is 0-4 SU this season after playing three straight game at home. This being the second game of a back to back obviously doesn’t help matters. 7* NY Rangers

8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): The Oilers have only managed to split a quartet of games since the All-Star Break, but remain in second place in the Pacific with 62 points. They are only three points back of first place Vancouver, but only two ahead of fifth place Calgary, who they recently defeated 8-3 on the road. The last game didn’t go nearly as well though as the Oilers were blanked 3-0 at Arizona. They’ll look to rebound tonight vs. a San Jose team that has the worst overall goal differential (-39) in the Western Conference. 

Like the Oilers, the Sharks have managed to split four games since the All-Star Break. They too just won at Calgary, 3-1 on Tuesday, but an Alberta sweep seems unlikely based on the fact this club hasn’t won B2B road games since Jan 2-4. Since a decent 15-12-1 start to the season, the Sharks are just 8-15-3 SU. There have been only two occasions total where they’ve won B2B games during that time.

Early in the season, these division rivals split a pair of games in San Jose. The road has generally been unkind to San Jose where they are 9-14-3. It’s not just a bad record either. They’re getting outscored by 1.2 goals per game on the road. That’s the fourth worst differential in the league right now, ahead of only Ottawa, New Jersey and Detroit. Edmonton is 8-2-2 its last 12 games and has gone 11-4 this year when off a loss by 2+ goals. 8* Edmonton

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Wild are in last place in the Central Division with only 54 points. But keep the following in mind. That’s easily the most points any of the four last place teams in the league have. The Wild are also just six points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference. If they are to make a move, it has to be now when they are in the midst of a long stretch of games at home. The last six games have all been played here in the Twin Cities and after tomorrow’s game at Dallas, the next four will be as well. 

Tonight is a game vs. Vancouver. What should immediately jump out to you here is the last place team in the Central is a slight favorite over the first place team in the Pacific. Obviously, home ice advantage needs to be factored in, but who’s favored here should be a real “eye-opener.” Of course, the Wild are a much better team at home than they are on the road. They have a 15-7-4 record here at the XCel Center as opposed to 9-15-2 SU on the road. In addition to beating Chicago Tuesday night, Minnesota owns victories over Tampa Bay and Dallas (7-0!) on this current homestand.

Now the Canucks did come here on January 12th and pick up a 4-1 victory. But I don’t like their chances of winning twice here in Minnesota. This is the end of a five-game road trip for the Canucks and the last two haven’t gone well as they’ve lost to Carolina and Boston, the latter coming in shutout fashion Tuesday (4-0). The situation here totally favors a Wild team that had to play short-handed EIGHT different times in the last meeting w/ Vancouver. 10* Minnesota

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): I was surprised to see the Maple Leafs lose their last game, Monday to Florida (5-3), as they were at home and by all reports the recipient of the “sharper” wagering. The Leafs came into that game on a three-game win streak, but now sit one point back of the Panthers, who lost an overtime game in Columbus last night. It’s not like the Leafs weren’t in position to win Monday’s game. They led 2-1 going into the third period. It also didn’t help that goalie Frederik Andersen had to exit the game with a concussion.

Meanwhile, I was certainly NOT surprised to see the Rangers lose 5-3 on Monday. After all, I played their opponent. That was the Dallas Stars, a team that has given up the fewest goals in the league this season. Toronto isn’t exactly as sharp in that department, but maybe they don’t have to be considering the Rangers have averaged just 2.2 goals over their L5 games. The only two wins NY has during that time have come at the expense of the league’s worst team, Detroit. 

Both teams come into this game w/ issues between the pipes. Andersen’s status remains uncertain after leaving the game vs. Florida. For the Rangers, it’s a murkier situation as they are juggling netminders even though it’s pretty clear Henrik Lundqvist is an inferior option when compared to Alexandar Georgiev. Andersen’s backup, Michael Hutchinson, has won his L4 starts. Georgiev, while better than Lundqvist, still only has an .890 save percentage at home. So Toronto, who averages a league-best 3.8 gpg on the road, should “steal” one here. 10* Toronto

7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Even when they were languishing as low as fifth place in the Atlantic Division, my outlook the Lightning remained pretty optimistic due to a goal differential that was among the league’s best. Sure enough, they’ve quickly risen up the standings and are now second in the division, behind only Boston. Their YTD goal differential of +43 is the league’s best right now and LY’s Presidents Trophy winners have gone 15-2-1 SU the L18 games overall. 

Since returning from the All-Star Break, the Lightning have gone 3-0-1, the lone loss in OT @ Dallas. All four games were on the road, the latest resulting in a 3-0 shutout of San Jose. Tonight marks the 1st game in TB since January 14th and only the third game here since Jan 9th. This fact is a big deal as the Lightning are a dominant home team, averaging 4.1 goals per game here and outscoring opponents by 1.2 gpg. Both figures are league bests. I’m a little stunned that we are able to grab them at this kind of price. 

Vegas is also off a 3-0 win, theirs coming at Nashville on Sunday. That put the Golden Knights into third place in the relatively wide-open Pacific Division. But a big key here is that this will be their SEVENTH consecutive road game and third since the Break. The Knights don’t score enough on the road (2.9 gpg) so it’s difficult for me to envision them keeping pace with the Lightning, who are 8-0 vs. the Pacific Division this year and 7-0-1 SU L8 home games. 7* Tampa Bay

9* Dallas (7:05 ET): More and more, I’m liking the Stars’ chances of finishing at least third in the Central Division, which would of course guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. Right now, they’re tied with Colorado for second, six points back of defending Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis. The key with the Stars is that they have given up the fewest number of goals in the league (129). Every other team in the Western Conference has allowed at least 19 more goals. I look for another strong effort in goal tonight.

The Rangers are the opposition tonight and they are coming off a home and home sweep of Detroit to start their second half. Really, the Rangers couldn’t have asked for a more favorable way to come out of the All-Star Break then with two games against the worst team in hockey. Saturday in the Motor City, they shut the Red Wings out 1-0. It was just the third shutout win of the year for NY and the bad news is they are 0-2 SU off the prior two. Despite the two straight wins, the Rangers remain well off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference. 

Dallas went to New Jersey on Saturday and won 3-2. It was the third consecutive game scoring exactly three goals, a good sign given what a good job they do at preventing the opposing team from scoring. The Stars have also beaten Tampa Bay since coming back from the All-Star Break. All nine goals scored by the team since the Break have come at even strength as they’ve gone 0 for 14 on the power play. Considering the Rangers are just 22nd in penalty killing, don’t be surprised if the Stars break out of their recent PP slump and score once or twice w/ the man advantage here. 9* Dallas

10* Carolina (2:05 ET): For the benefit of those who may not be paying attention, I’ll let you in on the fact that the NHL’s Eastern Conference is much stronger (and deeper) than the Western Conference this season. Out West, there are only seven clubs sporting positive goal differentials. In the East, there are 12, including seven alone from the Metropolitan Division where Carolina hails and is currently in sixth place. The Hurricanes have a +26 goal differential YTD, which is sixth best in the entire league, yet would NOT be a playoff team as of the current standings.

Vancouver comes into Sunday leading the Pacific Division with 64 points. That’s only three more points than Carolina has. The Canucks have a +17 goal differential and are on a five-game win streak after beating the Islanders yday 4-3. That game went into OT, making this a tougher than usual back to back plus it’s an afternoon game. The Canucks were outshot by the Isles 37-24 (17-5 in third period), so they should consider themselves fortunate to have won. 

Carolina is not only more rested than Vancouver here, but likely more motivated based on where they are in the standings. ‘Canes HC Rod Brind’Amour ripped the effort of his team in a 4-3 home loss to Vegas on Friday, the only game that they have played since the All-Star Break. The Canucks will be playing their 4th game since the Break today. Carolina has revenge for a 1-0 loss in OT at Vancouver back in December. But they are 17-9-1 SU at home, averaging 3.4 goals per game (allowing only 2.5). The Canucks are only 13-13-1 SU on the road and giving up 3.4 gpg. 10* Carolina

10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres wasted what I thought was a golden opportunity to pick up two points Tuesday. In their first game after the All-Star Break, they lost 5-2 (at home) to an Ottawa team that was coming off a disheartening loss in a shootout the night prior. Despite them wasting that opportunity, I look for the Sabres to bounce back tonight. Again they are at home and facing a division foe beneath them in the standings. This time it’s Montreal, who they beat here on home ice back in October.

Technically, these teams are tied with 51 points. But Buffalo has more one more non-shootout victory, despite having played one fewer game. It has not been a good last month or so for the Canadiens, who have dropped 10 of their last 14 games including one on Monday at home vs. Washington. The Habs were beaten 4-2 in their first game after the Break and gave up 40 shots on goal. It should be pointed out they have just two wins in regulation since X-Mas and have suffered TWO eight-game losing streaks since mid-November. 

As I discussed when they hosted Ottawa, Buffalo is capable of scoring plenty of goals. They average 3.4 goals per game at home, which is top 10 in the league. Top goalie Linus Ullmark is out after injuring his leg vs. Ottawa, but you can look past that as the Sabres have won four of five against the Habs, regardless of who is in goal. Montreal has plenty of issues between the pipes themselves and is 7-15 SU this season after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Buffalo 

6* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres have a lot of work to do if they are to make the postseason for the first time in nine years. They currently are 10 points back from where they need to be, that being the Wild Card or third place in the Atlantic. If they are to make a move, the time is probably now as tonight starts a five-game run on home ice. This looks like an easy two points to me as they face division also-ran Ottawa, who just played last night and lost in a shootout.

The Senators fell 4-3 at home to New Jersey Monday, their first game after the All-Star Break. Despite the fact they allowed 53 shots on goal, it’s a game the Sens “should have” won. I say this because they scored not one, but TWO short-handed goals in the third period. They had the lead until 3:21 was left in regulation. None of Ottawa’s goals last night came at even strength (other was on power play). The road has been unkind to this club as they are 5-17-2 SU and being outscored by 1.6 goals per game. That’s the 2nd worst goal differential in the league in road games (Detroit). 

Buffalo can definitely score here at home where they are averaging 3.5 goals per game w/ a solid shooting percentage of 11.8. They are top 10 in the league in goals per game scored at home. While they did lose their final game before the Break (2-1 at Nashville), the Sabres had won three in a row prior to that, scoring 13 goals in the process. They’ve also got revenge here for a 3-1 loss in Ottawa right before X-Mas where they finished with a 44-29 edge in shots. The Sabres are definitely the better team here, they’re in a better situation and Ottawa has won just once in its past 10 games. 6* Buffalo

9* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks come out of the All-Star Break with the worst goal differential in the Western Conference and on a three-game losing streak. But this appears to be one of the better spots to take them as they are at home facing another “also-ran” from the division. That would be Anaheim, whose resume is pretty comparable despite B2B road wins before the Break. Not since starting the season 3-0 have the Ducks won three straight games. They have just ONE win in regulation since December 3rd! 

This being a home game is a huge boon for San Jose, who has not gotten to play many games the “The Tank” recently. The entirety of the Sharks’ current three-game skid came on the road as they were outscored 14-4 by Arizona, Vancouver and Colorado, all of whom are top tier Western Conference teams. Anaheim is not, nor are the Ducks a good road team. Yes, they did win B2B road games before the Break. But they have lost 17 of 25 on the road this season while averaging only 2.28 goals per game! 

That scoring average is 4th worst in the league on the road. The Sharks are one of the three teams below them, so again, good for them that this game takes place in San Jose. The Sharks have played only 3 of their last 11 games at home and won them all, allowing just three total goals in the process. Anaheim has one of the league’s worst scoring differentials on the road (-1.12 gpg). A big difference for these teams is their respective records vs. fellow sub-.500 foes. San Jose is 12-6 SU while Anaheim is 6-12. 9* San Jose

10* Columbus (7:35 ET): The Blue Jackets are red hot and look to remain that way heading into the All-Star Break. Winners of five straight, they are locked in a tight battle within the Metro for potential playoff position. Right now, they are fifth in the division and would be the final Wild Card team. But a win here would enable them to leapfrog Carolina going into the Break. During this five-game win streak, the Blue Jackets have posted three shutouts and outscored opponents 16-3. 

Out West, Winnipeg is in a similar position trying to battle for a playoff spot. But right now they’d be on the outside looking in. They are three points back and have lost three in a row, getting outscored 16-4 in the process. They’ve also dropped five of the last six. So, in terms of momentum (still hate that word!) going into the Break, it’s a very different deal with these two teams. This will also be the Jets’ third road game in four nights. All have been out East. 

Columbus has revenge for a 4-3 loss up in Manitoba back in November. But this time they are at home and they are a lot stingier here, giving up only 2.2 goals per game. Only two teams - Philadelphia and Dallas - have allowed fewer goals at home this year. Winnipeg also gives up far too many shots per game (34.3 per game on the road). Recent form is too difficult to ignore here and the line being steamed up this morning only serves to confirm my view on this matchup. 10* Columbus

8* Boston (7:05 ET): I like the Bruins quite a bit here. Excluding losses that occurred beyond regulation, this is a team that’s gone 16-2 SU on home ice this season. Tonight, they are hosting a team that knows all too well the power that home ice advantage can have. For the first two years of its existence, Vegas was nearly unbeatable at home. But this year, there’s been a “leveling off” of sorts for the Golden Knights, who are basically just a .500 team. They are 25-19-7 SU overall and simply not in the Bruins’ class.

Vegas has lost five out of its last six and this game comes at the end of a four-game East Coast trip. They’ve already lost at both Buffalo and Montreal with a win over lowly Ottawa squeezed in between. While they’ve had the last two days off, the Golden Knights are 0-4 SU this season coming off three or more consecutive road games. Boston is a team they haven’t fared well against in their short existence, losing four of the five all-time matchups, including 4-3 in Las Vegas back in October. 

The Bruins come in having lost three of four, but all three losses were on the road. They won the front end of a home and home with Pittsburgh, 4-1, before losing on the road Sunday. But Boston held an early 3-0 lead in Pittsburgh and probably should have been able to put that one away. Knowing they let two points slip away, the Bruins should come out very focused on motivated here tonight. Vegas has trailed by 3+ goals in three of its last five games. 8* Boston

analysis soon

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Up next in the 3-pack is the Flyers, who could REALLY use a win here as they’ve fallen off the furious pace set by the top four teams in the Metro. In fact, they’ve actually fallen into sixth place in the division, thanks to a less than stellar start to the New Year. They’ve lost six of nine overall and just dropped a game to Montreal here at home on Thursday. But this is also a team that prior to that 4-1 defeat had just beaten both Boston and St. Louis, last year’s two Stanley Cup Finalists. 

Los Angeles has a lot bigger concerns than Philly right now. They are the last place team in the Pacific and their 41 points are the fewest in the whole Western Conference. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, including three straight on the road. Tonight marks the end of a week-long trip that began with them getting shutout last Saturday in Carolina. Since then, it’s been subsequent 4-3 losses to Tampa Bay and Florida.

This is a revenge game for the Flyers, who lost 5-3 out in LA on New Year’s Eve. That came in the middle of a six-game West Coast swing and they lost the next three games as well. But the Flyers have been a much better home team this year, going 15-4-4 SU in the City of Brotherly Love and their scoring differential here is quite large as they average 3.5 goals per game while giving up only 2.3. Everything here points to the Flyers getting revenge for that loss on New Year’s Eve. LA trailed 4-0 at one point in its last game. 8* Philadelphia

8* Calgary (4:00 ET): The Flames are tied for the Pacific Division lead with 57 points, but a negative goal differential (-9) for the year would seem to indicate that they’ve overachieved. Certainly, the club is nowhere near as dominant as it was a season ago when it finished first in the entire Western Conference with 107 points. Normally, that distinction might have me looking to fade, but Calgary is lucky here in that they are drawing a very weak opponent. Ottawa not only has a -36 goal differential this year, they’ve also lost nine in a row and are second to last in the Atlantic Division.

If playing against Ottawa seems familiar, well, that’s because I just did on Thursday. It was a win with Vegas, right here in Canada’s capital city. The Golden Knights prevailed 4-2, outshooting the Senators 43-35 and it was 4-1 before Ottawa notched a relatively meaningless power play goal with 7:30 to go. The Sens have been outscored 38-19 during their losing streak, a 2:1 margin, and that’s a frighteningly low number of total goals scored. 

Despite still being “in the red” goal differential wise, the Flames have won six of their last seven games. The only loss was a head-scratcher at Montreal, a team that (like Ottawa) came in on a long losing streak. Because they lost that game, I expect the Flames to be “on their toes” here, just like they were in an impressive win at Toronto Thursday night. A win here makes it a winning trip through Eastern Canada. In Calgary, the Flames had no problem beating the Senators 3-1 in late November. They were priced very high for that game so we’re getting a bargain here on the road. 8* Calgary

6* Vegas (7:35 ET): The Golden Knights just fired the only coach they’d ever known, Gerard Gallant, midway through their third season of existence. Of course, Gallant led the franchise all the way to the Stanley Cup Final back in its expansion year. But this year the club wasn’t playing up to its potential. Tuesday’s 4-2 home loss to Buffalo gives Vegas its second four-game losing streak of 2019-20. Peter DeBoer, recently fired by rival San Jose, takes over behind the bench and will look to right this ship. 

Fortunately for DeBoer, his first game is against a team that’s on a losing streak twice as long as the Golden Knights! Ottawa has dropped eight in a row as they continue to languish well beyond the pack in the Eastern Conference. The Senators have just 40 points this year, second fewest in the East and third fewest in the entire league. Vegas might be on a losing streak, but they are in much better position over in the West with 54 points. Ottawa hasn’t scored more than three goals in any of their eight straight losses.

Vegas is 4-1 SU all-time vs. Ottawa including a 3-2 win back in November. Yes, four of the Senators’ eight straight losses have come after regulation and they led Chicago 2-0 on Tuesday. But after the coaching change, you can bet the Golden Knights are going to come out highly motivated. They are a good team in a slump. Ottawa is simply bad. 6* Vegas

7* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues keep chugging along. I think it’s important to remember that while this club went on to win the Stanley Cup, at this point last year, they were near the very bottom of the league in points. The incredible finish to the season that they had has clearly carried over as they lead the Central Division with 67 points and have won four in a row. I like their chances tonight at home vs. the Flyers.

Philadelphia is off a very lucky win as they rallied back to beat Boston in a shootout after trailing. The game ended with one of the more embarrassing gaffes that you’ll ever see. Before that come from behind victory, the Flyers had lost five of six. Their last four road games have all ended in defeat and they are being outscored by a full goal per game on the road this year. St. Louis is +1.0 goals per game for the year at home. 

Philly is very much a fringe playoff team in the Eastern Conference while St. Louis is the class of the Western Conference right now. There’s little to suggest that the Flyers can win this game as the Blues have suffered only four regulation defeats in the Gateway City all season long. The Blues are 15-5 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals in their last game and they are off a 4-1 win against Anahiem. 7* St. Louis

10* Colorado (9:05 ET): I’m on the record as being a “believer” in the Avalanche. But they need to start winning some games. Three straight losses have dropped them to third in the Central Division, 10 points behind first place St. Louis (entering play on Monday). But Tuesday night is an opportunity to move back into second place as they host the team that’s just one point ahead, that being Dallas. I sense the Avs will be in full on “desperation mode” here and will back them in this spot. 

The reason I continue to be so optimistic about Colorado’s future has to do with their goal differential. It’s consistently been one of the best in the entire Western Conference. Currently, even with the three-game losing streak, their +28 GD is the best in the West (note: this is being written before the completion of St. Louis’ game Monday night). I’ve long been a believer that scoring differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s current won-loss record. The Avs will have had three days off since losing in OT to Pittsburgh.

Dallas saw a six-game win streak end Saturday in San Jose. That was a bit of a shocker considering where the Sharks have been in the standings most of the year. Then again, the schedule may be catching up with the Stars. Tonight is the end of four-game trip for them. Colorado will be even more motivated here by the fact they are 0-3 vs. the Stars this year. I’ve got them as the better overall club, so this is a good line we’re getting and the Avs are 5-2 SU the L7x playing with three or more days rest. 10* Colorado 

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Essentially, the Bruins have spent the balance of the year in first place in the Atlantic Division. They’ve got 66 points, one less than Washington and St. Louis, who have the most in the league and their goal differential of +34 is a league best. But with reigning President’s Trophy winners Tampa Bay hot on their heels, they cannot afford any kind of letdown. They’d won three in a row before last night’s loss, which came in a shootout, at Philadelphia. But goal scoring certainly hasn’t been an issue with 19 in the past four games.

Columbus is sixth in the Metro, not exactly an ideal place to be. Last night’s loss by the Bruins actually hurt the Blue Jackets as it allowed the Flyers to go up two points on them for what would be the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Blue Jackets are coming off a 3-1 road trip that ended with a 3-0 shutout of Vegas. But this club isn’t anything more than mediocre in my eyes. They’ve given up three more goals than they’ve scored themselves this year.

A win here would give Boston the most points in the league. But what’s crazy is that they should have even more points, if not for some poor luck. Last night’s loss dropped them to 0-7 in shootouts and their 12 losses beyond regulation are - by far - a league high. The way that last night’s game ended was very painful. It was a game they led 5-2 in the second period and “should have” won. They get it done here. 8* Boston

9* Washington (7:05 ET): The way things are going now, this could end up as a 1st round playoff matchup. That’s something the first place Capitals may want to avoid as the fourth place Hurricanes come in on a three-game win streak and off B2B shutouts. Lucky for the Caps, the playoffs are still three months away. But they’ve lost two in a row, the last one being a 5-1 shocker at the hands of last place New Jersey. I’m banking on the home team being motivated tonight. 

Another reason the Caps would want to avoid the Canes as a potential 1st round playoff opponent is that they’ve already lost twice to them this season. But they also won in Carolina last week. Interestingly enough, they were also coming off B2B losses going into that game. Even after being held to just three goals total in the last two games, Washington still ranks 3rd in the league in goals scored this year and averages 3.5 per game. 

While Carolina has won three straight and five of seven, every win has been at home. In fact, they haven’t even played a road game since December 27th. Their last road win was December 19th in Colorado. With the last seven games all being played on home ice, I’m not the least bit surprised the Hurricanes come into tonight streaking in a positive direction. But can that be sustained on the road against one of the league’s top teams? Not likely! 9* Washington

10* Arizona (6:05 ET): You can’t win if you don’t score. That adage applies to any sport and in the case of the NHL’s Coyotes, they’ve now been shut out in B2B games. It was a 4-0 loss to Tampa Bay, followed by a 3-0 loss to Carolina. Tonight the ‘Yotes will face another team from the Metro, but there’s a major difference in that this one is at home. Both shutout losses were on the road. Pittsburgh being the team that’s coming into visit tonight seems a bit scary, but this will be the Penguins third straight road game.

Prior to being outscored 7-0 in its last two games, Arizona had no problems scoring. In fact, they were on a four-game win streak that produced 18 goals. Three of the wins came here on home ice, one of which was against reigning Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis. So the Coyotes have shown they can beat the “big boys.” As good as Pittsburgh has looked recently, the last three wins have all been by one goal and two of those required overtime. The Pens have been outshot over their last five games.

Home ice advantage should be the difference in this one. Arizona getting blanked in B2B games happened at the end of a road trip, on consecutive nights no less. Pittsburgh now finds itself at the end of a road trip. Arizona has watched as an inferior Calgary team has passed them for 1st place in the Pacific, so expect them to come out very motivated. There are rumblings of a Sidney Crosby return for the Penguins coming soon, possibly as early as tonight, but it’ll take some time for him to be a factor on the ice. 10* Arizona

9* Chicago (8:35 ET): I played against the Blackhawks their last time out as they lost 5-2 to Nashville. Falling behind 3-0 in the first period was a killer for them, though they were able to climb back to within a goal in the third. But allowing Predators goalie Pekka Rinne to score an empty-net goal was the nail in the coffin as Chicago lost for the third time in its last four games and second straight at home. But Saturday I’m throwing my support behind them as they should pick up two points. 

Why the sudden change? Well, it helps that they’re hosting Anaheim, a team that just isn’t very good. The Ducks are in last place in the Western Conference with only 39 points. They’ve lost five of six and just got shutout, at home, 3-0 by Dallas. Lack of scoring has been a long-term issue. Aside from a recent 5-4 win (over Nashville ironically), the Ducks have scored two goals or less in seven of their last eight games. Overall, they are the second lowest scoring team in the sport, ahead of only lowly Detroit. 

The other end of the ice hasn’t been that kind either. The Ducks are giving up 3.6 goals per game on the road and 4.0 gpg the L5 overall. So look for a Chicago team that has found the back of the net pretty regularly over the last month to continue to do so tonight. I can’t see a third straight loss at home. Chicago won in overtime at Anaheim back in November. The Ducks’ lone All-Star, Jakob Silfverberg, has missed the last game and could be out again. 9* Chicago

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): Honestly, this might be the only time all year I take the Red Wings. They are at home and playing who I have ranked as the second worst team in the league (Detroit is obviously the worst). The opponent is Ottawa, a club that is 0-5 its last five games. While the Red Wings have been really bad this year, you can’t deny they’ve been playing better lately. They’ve won twice in the last four games including 4-3 over Montreal on Tuesday. 

The Senators have had major issues defensively during the current losing streak. They’ve allowed a total of 26 goals in the L5 games, giving up at least four every time out. Their most recent game, which was Tuesday, was the most lopsided of the bunch. They lost 6-1 at Washington, which hardly qualifies as a surprise as the Sens entered the game as +250 underdogs on the money line. Still though, it’s virtually impossible to want to take this team right now considering how they’ve been playing. 

The win over Montreal on Tuesday marked the third time this season the Red Wings have beaten the Habs. They have just 11 wins overall. An 0-2 record vs. Ottawa is what they are out to avenge tonight and I like their chances as both of the Red Wings’ recent victories were here on home ice. Ottawa’s last road win came all the way back on December 4th! They are just 5-15-3 SU on the road this year and giving up 3.9 goals per game. 10* Detroit

10* Nashville (8:35 ET): The Predators became the latest NHL team to make a coaching change as they fired Peter Laviolette on Monday and replaced him with John Hynes. Unfortunately the team was unable to win Hynes' debut, but that game was against the Bruins, one of the best teams in the league. I thought the Preds competed well in that game and tonight they should turn things around against Chicago, a last place team that has been beseiged by injuries all season long.

The Blackhawks are the only team currently below Nashville in the Central Division standings. They had a chance to pass them Tuesday, but they too lost, 2-1 at home to Calgary. That performance came on the heels of a five game stretch where the club tallied four or more goals four separate times. But that's not something I expect to continue as Chicago ranks towards the bottom of the league, averaging just 2.9 goals per game. 

While these teams have split a pair of meetings in Nashville this year, those games have seen the Predators outshoot the Blackhawks 92-44! Coaching changes typically lead to short-term improvement and that's what I expect from the Preds, who have a better YTD goal differential than Chicago. Scoring is not a problem for Nashville, even on the road as they average 3.6 goals per game. That's the second highest average in the league for road games. 10* Nashville

8* Florida (7:05 ET): Vancouver's season-best seven-game win streak came to an ugly end on Tuesday as they were clobbered 9-2 by Tampa Bay. While that was just "one game," it's also the start of what will be a five-game road-trip for the Canucks and this team has simply not played well away from home all season. The disturbing trend sees them allowing 3.5 goals per game while seeing their own scoring average dip to 2.9 gpg. Only one of those seven straight victories came on the road and I don't see them winning tonight in Miami. 

Florida could really use a win as it looks like they may be relegated to nothing more than a Wild Card team at best. Currently, they are three points out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. They are 4th in the Atlantic with 49 points, but they just don't compare favorably to any of the top three teams (Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto). They'll host the Maple Leafs on Sunday, but before that they'll need to bounce back from a 5-2 loss here at home to Arizona their last time out. The good news is the Panthers are 13-8 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals. 

This play boils down to the simple concept of home ice advantage. I already touched upon Vancouver's road woes this season. Well, Florida sees its scoring average rise to 3.7 gpg here at home, which is 4th most in the league. The Canucks' goal differential on the road, not surprisingly, is bottom 10 in the league. There have been six instances this NHL season of a team scoring six goals in a period. Two of those have come against Vancouver, both of them road games! This is also a revenge game for the Panthers, who lost 7-2 up in Vancouver in October. Again, it'll be a much different story with the home ice flipped. 8* Florida

7* Montreal (7:35 ET): Boy does Montreal have its back against the wall here. Last night, they suffered their sixth consecutive loss, the fifth of which was by one goal. It was 3-2 at home vs. Winnipeg, a game where I unfortunately backed the Habs. The difference ended up being a short-handed goal they allowed in the 2nd period. As bleak as things may look now, tonight they are facing the worst team in the league and this should be the spot they get back on track. 

Then again, it is a double revenge game for the Habs. They have shockingly lost twice to Detroit this year, something that cannot happen given the Red Wings have all of 10 wins all season.  Both games were in Montreal too. Curiously though, the Canadiens have been a slightly better team on the road this year. They are averaging 3.5 goals per game. They've also won four straight times here in Detroit. 

No matter what way you look at it, it's been a trying season in the Motor City as the Red Wings are the worst team in the league by just about every metric. They've lost eight of nine coming into tonight, the lone win coming New Year's Eve against San Jose. They've scored just six goals the last four games while giving up 4 in each of the last two. They are a horrendous 3-23 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 7* Montreal

10* Montreal (7:05 ET): As the Habs are set to play their third straight home game, they need this one badly. They've dropped five in a row overall, four of them by one goal, and are coming off an overtime loss here to the Penguins on Saturday. A slew of injuries have definitely been a factor, but help is on the way as defenseman Marco Scandella (a Quebec native) has arrived via trade. The Canadiens are currently six points back of the Wild Card, so winning here is a must. I think they will. 

Over in the Western Conference, Winnipeg finds itself on the playoff fringe. They are one point back of the Wild Card, so this game is rather meaningful to them despite all the hockey that's still left to be played. But like the Canadiens, the Jets aren't exactly tearing it up lately. They've lost B2B games as well as 7 of 9. They too lost 3-2 in OT Saturday, falling at Minnesota. Though the game did got to overtime, the Jets were outshot badly in the contest, 44-21. 

It certainly seems as if Montreal "should" have a better home record than 8-9-4 SU. After all, they've outshot the competition here by a pretty considerable margin (36.9 SF per game vs. 29.2 SA). My view is that both the shooting percentage and save percentage have to start improving moving forward. Meanwhile, Winnipeg seems pretty lucky to have a 12-7-2 SU road record as they are giving up 35.0 shots per game, a high number. Their only two goals scored Saturday came via the power play. Habs step up big in a "must win" spot. 10* Montreal

6* Toronto (7:05 ET): Edmonton just won as a big ML underdog in Boston Saturday night, pulling a somewhat shocking 4-1 upset at +190. I can't see them doing it twice in a row, not with this being their third road game in five nights plus they're up against a red hot Toronto club. The Maple Leafs are 9-0-1 SU L10 games, a run which has really solidified them in the Atlantic Division. They have completely dominated the Oilers through the years, winning five straight including 4-1 in Edmonton last month. They have won 16 of the past 20 head to head meetings here at home.

The Oilers' season started strong, but I felt it was a bit of a mirage and sure enough they now find themselves on the fringes of playoff contention. There were a lot of come from behind victories in that strong start. Further evidence of that would be the fact they currently rank just 28th in Corsi For % (4th worst). They did not win B2B games once in December. The last time they did was right before Thanksgiving. Boston outshot them 36-26 on Saturday. 

As mentioned above, Toronto is trending in a very different direction lately. As it often does, a coaching change provided the necessary "spark" as the Leafs are 15-4-1 SU since Sheldon Keefe took over behind the bench. They are typically scoring first in games (15 of 20 games under Keefe) and speaking of scoring, a 3-0 win over the Islanders on Saturday was the first time in the L10 games they DIDN'T score at least four goals. That was just the second shutout win of the year, but they are 13-5 SU off a win by 2+ goals. 6* Toronto

10* Columbus (1:05 ET): Both teams here are having disappointing seasons, but San Jose's situation is the one that seems more dire. The Sharks only recently escaped the basement in the Western Conference. They did so by going into Pittsburgh and shocking the Penguins with a 3-2 overtime victory. But even after pulling that upset, the Sharks still have just 39 points and they've been outscored by 29 goals, the worst differential in the entire conference. I don't see them pulling two upsets in a row. 

Columbus may not measure up to the top four teams in the Metro, but with 46 points they are only three back of the Wild Card. It's a two-game win streak for the Blue Jackets coming into Saturday's matinee as they defeated Florida here at home (4-1), then pulled an overtime shocker of their own Thursday, winning 2-1 as +190 ML dogs in Boston. The Blue Jackets are a pretty strong defensive club as they give up only 2.4 goals per game here at home. 

Meanwhile, San Jose is allowing 3.33 goals per game, placing them among the five worst defensive teams in the league. It's not just defense though. The offensive numbers on the road are pretty dire as they average only 2.26 gpg, which is ahead of only last place teams New Jersey and Detroit. Before the shocker in Pittsburgh, the Sharks had lost 11 of 12, all but two of those losses coming in regulation. They have not won B2B games since November. C-Bus is 8-0-4 its L12 games, the longest active point streak in the league. 10* Columbus

8* Calgary (9:05 ET): The Flames will be our last bet of 2019 as they look to avoid what would be a fifth straight loss at home. Fortunately, they are facing a team they've gone a perfect 6-0 against the L2 seasons. We played Calgary last time out and they really let us down in a 5-2 loss here at home to Vancouver. The Canucks were playing the second night of a back to back, yet they came out looking like the fresher team in taking a 3-0 first period lead. I can't see anything but a very motivated Calgary team getting two points tonight. 

Despite just getting hit wish a rash of injuries, Chicago has somehow posted B2B wins as an underdog. Five players are either on IR or out for the season, including Brent Seabrook, Brandon Saad and Calvin de Haan. Eventually that will catch up with the Blackhawks. Tonight seems like a logical spot for them to lose. This team is giving up a ton of shots per game (37.3 on the road!). Given all of the above, them winning a fifth straight time as an underdog just seems illogical. 

Calgary not only won the Pacific Division LY, they also finished first in the Western Conference. But like the top seed in the Eastern Conference (Tampa Bay), they got upset in the first round of the playoffs. I figured they'd regress some this season, but being in 4th place in the division and on the fringe of the playoffs is disappointing. Good news is they can still change that. This should be a bounce back game. 8* Calgary

8* Colorado (8:05 ET): It was just a few seasons ago that the Avalanche had one of the worst regular seasons in NHL history, finishing with just 48 points. How far they've come since 2016-17. Following B2B 90+ point campaigns, they already have 50 points entering New Year's Eve when they'll host division rival Winnipeg. But despite this great start, the Avs do come into the final day of 2019 on a two-game losing streak. I think they end it tonight on home ice. 

Winnipeg isn't exactly playing well either. They've dropped three straight and five out of their last six. They've allowed at least four goals in each of those five losses. A home and home w/ the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues didn't go well. After losing 5-4 at home in overtime, they were beaten 4-1 Sunday in St. Louis.  

Colorado has lost three consecutive home games, something that has to be on the players' minds entering tonight. In their last home game, they lost as a -210 favorite to the Wild. Can't see them dropping another one in a similar price range. One of the reasons I'm so confident in the Avs' fortunes is their +28 YTD goal differential, which is the best in the Western Conference. While the power play has recently struggled to convert, this looks like a spot where that could change as the Jets' penalty killing has been atrocious (just 50% last 7 games). 8* Colorado 

8* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I'm on the record as saying the Lightning are going to make a move in the Atlantic Division. With a three-game win streak, they're already up to 4th place and they have the second best YTD goal differential in the division at +15. Getting into the top three in the division is critical because you get a guaranteed playoff spot. It's very likely that both Wild Cards in the Eastern Conference are going to go to the much deeper Metropolitan Division. 

Remember that the Lightning won a NHL record 62 games in LY's regular season. A stunning first round playoff exit took all the shine off that season, but this is a dangerous club that still deserves to be mentioned among the league's elite. As for tonight's opponent, Buffalo, we are again witnessing a quick decline after what was a strong start to the season. The Sabres started 8-1-1 but are just 9-15-6 since. That's a .333 win percentage. Last year was a similar type deal with a 17-6-2 record going into Thanksgiving only for them to miss the playoffs. 

The Sabres just got swept in a home and home by first place Boston. No shame in that I suppose, but before that they were beaten by the lowly Senators. Overall, Buffalo has won just once in its past seven games. They've been outscored 25-12. All three games in Tampa Bay's win streak were at home where they average almost 4.0 goals per game. But I have faith that they can get the job done on the road as they outscored those L3 opponents 13-6. They are already 3-0 vs. the Sabres this season and have beaten them six straight times overall. 8* Tampa Bay

7* Calgary (9:35 ET): The Pacific is the most wide open division in the NHL with several teams already having spent time at the top. Right now it's Vegas in first place, but you've got four teams within four points of them. Two of those four meet here. Vancouver has won four in a row, all at home, as they're looking good again. But right ahead of them is Calgary, who is off a very impressive 5-1 win at rival Edmonton Friday night. The money line "tells the story" here and I'm backing the Flames.

Part of the reason that the Canucks find themselves as such a prohibitive underdog for this matchup is the fact they just played last night. They outlasted the Kings, 3-2. Though they never trailed and even had a 2-0 lead after one period, it must be pointed out that Vancouver was outshot in the game 51-26. It took a "herculean" effort from goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who made a career-high 49 saves in the win. But on the road this club is giving up 3.3 goals per game. 

Though they're off a big win over their rival, don't expect the Flames to take this game lightly. Their previous homestand ended with three consecutive losses, so that's a streak they're certainly interested in ending. There's been only one prior meeting between these division rivals this season. It was here in Calgary and the Flames pulled off 3-0 shutout. They may not have to deal with Markstrom tonight with this being a B2B for the Canucks. 7* Calgary

6* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): I mentioned this in the analysis the last time I played the Lightning, but this team appears to be the proverbial "sleeping giant." That last play came Monday when Tampa Bay hosted Florida. It ended up being a convincing 6-1 victory right here at Amalie Arena. That was the first of what will be six consecutive games vs. Atlantic Division opponents and the Lightning took full advantage of the four power play opportunities they were afforded, scoring three times when having the man advantage. 

Part of the reason I feel the Lightning are a "sleeping giant" should be obvious. This club set a NHL record for regular season wins just last year (62). So you know what we're dealing with. The fact they are languishing in sixth place in the Atlantic is downright shocking, but keep in mind they also have a +13 YTD goal differential, which is better than every other team in the division besides first place Boston. I still consider TB one of the top teams in the entire Eastern Conference, especially at home where they average an impressive 3.9 goals per game. 

Montreal is the next division opponent Tampa will face. The Habs are currently third in the Atlantic, but only two points ahead of the Lightning. So TB's current standing in the division is a real thin line. Two points tonight could elevate them into a third place tie. Montreal is off a 6-2 win at Winnipeg Monday night, but is just 4-11 SU this year after a game in which it tallied 4+ goals. This is also their fifth straight road game after playing four straight in Western Canada. The Canadiens have lost 7 of 9 matchups to the Lightning the L3 seasons including all four on the road. 6* Tampa Bay

7* Colorado (8:05 ET): The Avalanche have a legit claim to call themselves the best team in the Western Conference. While they are five points back of the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues, whom they've struggled against head to head, no other team in the West has more points than the Avs' 49. What sets Colorado apart though is their YTD goal differential of +31. It's easily the best in the West w/ St. Louis (+19) #2. I think it'll be an easy two points for the home team in Denver tonight. 

While Colorado is in second place in the Central Division, Minnesota is second from the bottom. The Wild can be a formidable club at home where their record is 10-2-3 SU. But on the road, they are just 8-13-2 SU. Those 13 regulation losses are tied for most in the league coming into tonight. Look no further than the last two games for evidence of the Wild's inconsistency. While they shut out Calgary 3-0 on Monday, that came on the heels of a 6-0 loss to Winnipeg. Both games were at home.

The Avalanche won their last game 7-3 against Vegas and that was on the road. They should be motivated coming into tonight as prior to beating the Golden Knights, they'd dropped B2B home games. Making the Avs' season all the more impressive is that they've had to deal with lots of injuries. But they are pretty healthy now and should overwhelm an opponent giving up 3.7 goals per game on the road. The Avs average 3.7 gpg at home. 7* Colorado

7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): One of things I find to be most perplexing this NHL season has been the failure of the Lightning to ascend in the Atlantic Division. After all, this was a club that set a record last year with 62 regular season wins. We all remember their unceremonious 1st round exit at the hands of Columbus though and perhaps that's had a "carryover effect" because right now TB is only sixth in the division with just 38 points. But, even after B2B losses (to the Stars & Capitals), I'm not about to "give up" on this team. Look for them to get two points tonight in this all-Sunshine State matchup.

Florida is one of the teams currently ahead of the Lightning in the Atlantic. They've won three straight and have 41 points. The offense is humming right now with 17 goals scored during the win streak. However, let's not get tricked by a small sample size. Prior to this win streak, the Panthers had lost 7 of 10. While they do rank near the top of the league in goals scored for the year, this team also isn't shy about giving up its fair share as well. In 15 road games, the Panthers have been outscored due to giving up an average of 3.53 goals per game. Only eight teams are allowing more goals per game on the road. 

Tampa Bay has no problem scoring at home. In fact, they lead the league in that department with an average of 3.83 goals per game. These B2B losses that they've suffered are some real "head-scratchers" as they outshot Dallas 48-20 (lost in OT) and then were 0 for 7 on the power play against Washington, which included a 2-man advantage in the third period when the game was tied. (Lightning lead the league on the PP). Florida needed 42 saves from backup goalie Driedger to beat Carolina its last time out. Last time these teams played was two weeks ago and TB won a low-scoring game (2-1) in Miami. It was their eighth time beating the Panthers in the last nine tries. 7* Tampa Bay

6* Columbus (7:05 ET): Already dealing with a long list of injuries, the last thing the Blue Jackets needed was to see Cam Atkinson go down with a lower-body injury on Thursday. Atkinson set career highs in goals, assists and points last season. He's out for at least the next two games. But while the Columbus injury report may be a bit longer than normal, the team is being given some relief Saturday with a visit from last place New Jersey. Not only are the Devils second to last in the league in points, this is a horrendous spot for them having played in Washington last night (lost 6-3). 

The Devils were tied 2-2 for most of the second period last night, but then came a four-goal blitz by the Capitals that put the game out of reach. Having recently traded Taylor Hall, morale is low in New Jersey even though they'd won two in a row prior to last night's setback. The team still has just 27 points and has been outscored by 39 goals. Only Detroit is worse in both regards. 

Columbus has won three games in a row, the last two coming against last place teams Detroit and Los Angeles. So this should be "old hat" for them. Also it should be noted that the win streak began w/ a very impressive 3-0 shutout of the Capitals. Prior to that, Washington hadn't been shutout this season. This is arguably the best stretch C-bus has had all season and I see it continuing at the expense of a very bad team playing in a bad spot. The Blue Jackets are 7-1 vs. the Devils over the last three seasons. 6* Columbus

7* Boston (7:05 ET): I was stunned as to how poorly the Islanders played Tuesday night (I had them). They lost 8-3 at home to the Predators by giving up the game's final seven goals. The Isles entered that game 13-2-1 SU at home. An equally stunning result that night was Boston losing on home ice to Los Angeles. The Bruins were -275 on the ML for the contest as they fell for the sixth time in the last seven games. Somebody's gotta bounce back here and I believe it's going to be the Bruins.

While the Islanders are a worthy adversary, you have to remember it wasn't that long ago that it seemed as if Boston might run away with the President's Trophy (awarded to team w/ most regular season points). They still comfortably lead the Atlantic Division - with a 10-point advantage - and their +28 goal differential is tops in the Eastern Conference. Six of their seven home losses this year, including the one to LA on Tuesday, have come past regulation. It's hard to fathom a team this good being in this kind of prolonged slump. It's only a matter of time before they break out. 

The Islanders' loss Tuesday was their worst of the year and the eight goals allowed were obviously a season-high (previously had not allowed more than 5 in any game). They still lead the league in goals allowed (80), though Boston (90) isn't far behind and has played three more games. Head to head, the Bruins have had the Isles' number in recent years, winning 12 of the last 14 matchups including seven straight. NY isn't nearly as good on the road as their scoring average drops to 2.6 goals per game. They are 5-14 SU after giving up 5+ goals the previous game. 7* Boston

8* NY Islanders (7:05 ET): Terrible spot for the Predators tonight as they played last night at MSG (did beat the Rangers 5-2) and are up against an Islanders team that has been tremendous at home so far, especially on the goals allowed side of the ledger. Not only that, the Isles have won three in a row overall (two of the wins on the road). They've got some revenge on the mind too after losing both games to Nashville last season. The Islanders are 6-1 when playing w/ exactly two days rest.

New York is currently second in the Metropolitan, trailing only Washington. They are 13-2-1 SU at home this season. No team has given up fewer goals and it's really not even close as the next closest team has given up 12 more. They allow just 2.3 gpg and lately they've been even stingier, giving up just 1.8 gpg the last five contests. A 3-2 OT win over the Sabres on Saturday extended the Islanders' home win streak to six games. Consider that despite having played the fewest games in the league, the Islanders have the 7th most points. 

Nashville has had and up and down season to this point and currently sits in sixth place in the Central Division. They would not be in the playoffs were they to start today. The Preds are giving up 3.4 goals per game on the road, putting themselves at a big disadvantage here as the Isles are 4th in the league in goals allowed at home while that average has Nashville near the bottom on the road. Really, the Islanders couldn't ask for a better situation to pick up two points. Nashville lost the only other time this year it was in a back to back. 8* NY Islanders

analysis soon

10* Winnipeg (5:05 ET): The Flyers are one of the league's most improved teams this year, but all of a sudden they've dropped three of four, which has them in the precarious fifth position in the Metro. Improved goaltending has been a big key for Allan Vigneault's team (remember the Flyers infamously used SEVEN different goaltenders last season), but numbers on the road remain suspect. Tonight the Flyers are in Winnipeg where they'll encounter an angry Jets team. 

Winnipeg is off an embarrassing defeat as they lost to the league's worst team (Detroit) on Thursday. They had just beaten the Red Wings 5-1 here on home ice two days prior, so not being able to sweep them was definitely a shock. Now the Wings did win again last night. But before that they'd lost 12 in a row including 10 straight in regulation. My guess is the Jets are going to come out angry this afternoon. Before losing in Detroit, they had gone 6-1-1 the previous eight games.

This is not a good spot for Philadelphia as they played last night in Minnesota (lost 4-1). While there's no shame in losing on the road, last night's result does unscore an issue w/ this Flyers club, that being they are simply not a very good road team. They are 7-8-1 (compared to 10-2-4 at home) and giving up 3.3 goals per game. Winnipeg has had two days off to stew over the Detroit loss where a number of "fluke plays" went against them. The Flyers had just 18 shots on goal last night and lost two forwards to injury. 10* Winnipeg

8* San Jose (10:35 ET): Following a five-game losing streak, the Sharks fired coach Peter DeBoer. Tonight is their first game for interim Bob Boughner. It’s also a home game. The last four were all on the road. They face a weak Rangers team. Normally, after a coaching change, we see teams respond positively. That’s what I’m banking on here.

The Sharks were outscored 15-3 the L3 games, causing DeBoer to be shown the door. Prior to the five game slide, they’d won five of six. So they are capable. This is a better team at home, as you might expect. They’re due to start scoring as well. 

The Rangers have 33 points, one more than San Jose. But they couldn’t beat the last place Kings their last time out. That was the third time in five games they were held to one goal. This boils down to the sense of urgency for the Sharks. I also noticed they’ve lost three straight times to the Rangers, something that won’t sit well with them either. Sharks are the better team here. 8* San Jose

7* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The last time the Penguins took the ice, I made them my 10* Game of the Week. They made short work of the Blues, winning 3-0 and gaining a measure of revenge for a loss in St. Louis the game prior. Despite a myriad of injuries, the most notable one being to Sidney Crosby, the Pens have stayed strong. Their YTD goal differential of +18 is third best in the Eastern Conference. They are only 5th in the Metropolitan Division right now, but that goal differential is slightly better than tonight's opponent despite the Coyotes leading the Pacific. Back Pittsburgh again tonight. 

Winning in shutout fashion Wednesday was certainly a welcome reprieve for a Penguins team that had just given up 16 goals its previous three games. But the goals allowed side of the ledger has not been an issue here at the Igloo where they are only allowing 2.3 gpg. Scoring is also not an issue as they average 3.6 gpg. Only two teams in the league have a better home goal differential (Boston, Philadelphia). I also like Pittsburgh's 10-4 SU record vs. the Western Conference. 

Arizona has Darcy Keumper, who leads the league in both save percentage (.937) and goals against average (1.92). He made 28 saves in last night's 3-1 win at Philadelphia. But with this being a back to back, there's a decent chance Keumper may not be back between the pipes tonight. Regardless, the Coyotes were fortunate to win last night's game as they only managed 18 shots on goal. The 'Yotes have lost the last two times they've been in a back to back. Pittsburgh is 7-0-2 its last nine home games and has a clear edge here. 7* Pittsburgh

10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Penguins have dropped two in a row, one of those coming to the team they're facing tonight, St. Louis. The front end of this home and home took place in St. Louis with the Blues walking away the victors by a score of 5-2. The Pens lost by that same score the night before in Columbus. But now they are back home and have the advantage of three days off while St. Louis had to play a game in Chicago Monday night. I'm calling for revenge here. 

St. Louis is hot right now. The defending Stanley Cup Champs have won four straight and continue to lead the Central Division w/ 42 points. The win streak has even opened up a 7-point gap between them and the rest of the field. A 10-2-3 SU road record is "nothing to sneeze at," especially considering some of the places they've recently won at (Tampa Bay, Dallas). But the Blues are still being outshot on the year, a troubling sign as they can't continue to convert on 11.6% of their shot attempts like they have the L5 games. 

Also, those same L5 games have seen Blues' goalies post a .949 save percentage. Compare that to the .873 posted by Pittsburgh during the same time. Over the course of the season, the Blues' save percentage on the road is identical to that of the Penguins at home. The teams also have identical YTD goal differentials (+15). There are injuries, but the last time Pittsburgh took the ice at home, they scored 8 goals. They've won three in a row at home. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): This is almost a "must-win" for a Canucks team that seems to be "wasting away" what was a fine start to the season. After 14 games, the club was standing tall at 9-3-2. Now they are 13-11-4 after losing 10 of 14. The most recent defeat came Sunday night, here on home ice, against Edmonton. That loss cost them what would have been a home and home sweep of the first place Oilers, who are now seven points up on Vancouver in the Pacific.

Ottawa is not a good team as they have only 23 points on the season. Only two teams have less points, those being Detroit and New Jersey. The Senators have lost four in a row coming into tonight while being outscored 13-4. Its their third consecutive road game and while they've had a two-day break, they're in Edmonton tomorrow night. The road has generally been a disaster for the Sens thus far as they are 4-10-1 while getting outscored by 1.4 goals per game. 

Meanwhile, Vancouver is averaging a healthy 3.9 gpg at home this season. You'd expect them to be sporting a better home record than 5-3-3 right now. The next four games can change that as they are all here in British Columbia. The Canucks' 92 goals scored are most in the Pacific Division and well ahead of Ottawa's scoring pace (only 68 goals scored). I thought they played better than Edmonton Sunday night, but giving up two PP goals proved costly. Won't happen again tonight. 8* Vancouver

10* Vancouver (10:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between two of Western Canada's teams. The first took place last night in Edmonton w/ visiting Vancouver winning 5-2. While that result showed that home ice isn't always all it's cracked up to be, I also don't see the road team winning both of these games. I've stated my issues w/ the Oilers in the past as they've been living dangerously, posting an irregularly high number of come from behind wins. Look for the Canucks to sweep this home and home. 

This is not a great bit of scheduling for the road team. Edmonton had just played five straight on the road before losing at home last night. Now it's back on the road. The Oilers have lost two straight, getting outscored 9-3 in those games. This is not a team that scores a ton on the road (just 2.8 gpg) and they continue to be outshot over the course of the whole season. 

 Vancouver just wrapped up a six-game road trip last night and will now be at home for the next five. It's a favorable stretch w/ some bad teams coming in (like Ottawa on Tuesday) and the Canucks have been a high-scoring club here in B.C. by averaging 4.1 goals per game. It's a little amazing that they are just 5-2-3 SU on home ice considering they've outscored opponents here by over a full goal per game. My view is that this is going to be a good week for Vancouver and it starts tonight with two points. 10* Vancouver

8* Dallas (8:35 ET): A 3-0 loss in Chicago Tuesday night ended a very impressive 12-game run for the Stars. During that time, they went 11-0-1 and scored 47 goals. The run has them in second in the Central Division, trailing only the team they'll face Friday, the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues. St. Louis has also been hot of late, going 10-2-3 SU its L15 overall and 6-0-2 its L8 on the road. But this game being in Dallas, where the Stars haven't lost this month, absolutely matters.

The Stars may be four points back of the Blues in the division, but I feel they are the better team. Both teams have the same number of wins and losses, the only difference is that six of St. Louis' 11 losses have come beyond regulation. But Dallas has the slightly better YTD goal differential and unlike the Blues, they're actually outshooting their opponents. The Stars also are among the league leaders in fewest goals allowed. They are allowing just 2.0 per game at home.

You have to give St. Louis credit for beating Tampa Bay twice in an eight-day span. The second win came Wednesday. But before that they'd also been swept in a home and home by slumping Nashville. The Blues have dropped five of eight overall. This is a rematch from October 5th, the second game of the season, where the Blues won 3-2 at home. That game saw St. Louis rally from a 2-1 third period deficit. This time they are at home and out for revenge. 8* Dallas