10* Run Line Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox got humiliated yesterday, losing 14-1 to the rival Yankees. Once the second half (of the season) commences, catching the Pinstripes won’t even be a realistic goal. Right now, the Red Sox face a 15.5 game deficit in the division. However, they are locked into a tight three-team race for second in the AL East and all three teams could end up being Wild Cards. Paramount at this juncture is Boston reversing its poor record in division games. They come into Sunday just 12-25 vs. the rest of the East. They’re big underdogs today, but I like them on the run line. Take the +1.5. 

Let’s not forget who won on Friday (it was Boston). That 5-4 victory in the series opener made it six straight extra inning wins for the Red Sox going back to late May. July has been a tough month overall though for the team (5-10 record), but four of the losses have been by one run, a result that would be just fine here based on our bet. After being humiliated on Saturday, I anticipate the Sox will come out swinging in this final game before the All-Star Break. A win today would give the team its first series win over a division opponent ALL SEASON. It’s a game that will be viewed as more important in the visitors’ dugout and the fact the first series win over a division foe could be the Yankees would make it all the more special. 

Chris Sale makes just his second start of 2022. His first saw him toss five shutout innings of three-hit ball on 7/12 vs. Tampa Bay. So he did his job. Sadly, that ended up being one of those one-run losses for the Red Sox (3-2). I expect him to pitch well on Sunday against a Yankees’ lineup that had been in a bit of a slump before yesterday. It should be noted that the Yankees have lost five of seven overall, three of those losses coming against the Reds. Over the L9 games, NY has just two wins by more than one run. Yes, Gerrit Cole has had a good first half of the season. But he also has a 4.30 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Boston. 10* Run Line Boston (+1.5)

10* Texas (4:05 ET): Seattle has now won 12 in a row, but they were very fortunate to win Friday (rallied back from a 5-1 deficit to win 6-5) and I just don’t see them sweeping the series. Half of the 12 straight victories have been by one run. Last night did see them roll to an 8-3 triumph, but again, it was a one-run game entering the eighth inning. Look for the Rangers to end their division rival’s win streak on Saturday. 

I think Seattle starter Logan Gilbert is a bit fortunate to have a 3-0 team start record in his L3 starts. He doesn’t have any quality starts during that stretch, twice allowing four runs in a game and he’s also allowed four home runs in the three games. He has just eight quality starts all season and the last one came nearly a month ago. Honestly, Gilbert just feels “due” to drop a decision. 

I don’t think Texas is a bad team, despite being six games under .500. They’ve scored more runs than they’ve allowed this season. This will be just the fourth start for Spencer Howard, but the last one was the best as he went five innings and allowed just two runs. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here. I’m simply not a believer in the Mariners. 10* Texas

9* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The White Sox have come in and surprisingly beaten the Twins each of the first two games here in Minnesota and done so in shockingly easy fashion, winning by scores of 12-2 and 6-2. But do not look for lightning to strike for a third time on Saturday. Not with Lance Lynn starting for Chicago. He has a 7.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his L3 starts and quite frankly his numbers over the course of the full season aren’t a whole heck of a lot better. 

The White Sox are now back at .500 thanks to their current four-game win streak, but have still been outscored this season (by 22 runs). Don’t tell that to the Twins though as they have seen their lead in the AL Central shrink to 2.5 games over Cleveland and 3 games over Chicago. But the Twins also have, clearly, the best run differential (+36) and remain the team to beat in my eyes. They have only lost to the same team three straight times on two different occasions this year. 

Dylan Bundy is a good starter for Minnesota, at least at home where he has a 2.10 ERA and 0.935 WHIP. He’s also pretty good when facing the White Sox. Twice this season he’s toed the rubber against them and both times the Twins won. Bundy has allowed just one run and seven hits over 10 innings. Lynn allowed five runs when he faced the Twins earlier this month and was lucky to escape with a no-decision. In his most recent start, Lynn allowed eight runs over four innings. 9* Minnesota

10* Miami (6:40 ET): The Marlins played yesterday (while the Phillies did not), but I’m still backing the home team with Alcantara on the mound. The NL Cy Young frontrunner certainly negates any scheduling “disadvantage” the home team may face here, even if his teammates have had to go to extra innings each of the last two days to pick up a pair of victories. The Phillies, meanwhile, have now lost four in a row after dropping a couple games in Toronto. In seven previous games vs. Miami, the Phillies have scored three or less runs five times. Facing Alcantara, that number is likely to grow to six.

Alcantara has had an incredible first half. Through 18 starts, he is 9-3 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Only one time has he allowed more than two earned runs. Lately, Alcantara has been particularly filthy. After tossing a complete game against St. Louis on 6/29, he hasn’t allowed any runs in either of his last two starts, which have spanned 15 innings. Earlier this year, he went 7 ⅔ innings against these Phillies and gave up only two runs. While Alcantara did not get the win that day (Marlins lost 3-2), it was the eighth time in 12 career starts vs. Philly that he allowed 2 ER or fewer.

Now it would be nice if this Miami offense got going. The team’s numbers at the plate have been pretty bad, but today they are facing Kyle Gibson and he is not only winless on the road, but has a 7.24 ERA over his L3 starts. Now Gibson did bounce back nicely his last time out (after B2B bad outings), but I can’t see him outdueling Alcantara here. I realize that FIVE of Miami’s last six victories have come beyond the ninth inning, but this is a team that’s better than its record (positive run differential) and they’ve got the NL’s top pitcher on the mound today. 10* Miami

10* Texas (8:05 ET): Entering Thursday, it’s the Mariners and Orioles that share the distinction of being the hottest team in baseball. Think about that sentence for a moment. Both clubs have won 10 in a row. Coming into 2022, I pegged the Mariners for regression after they were able to win 90 games last season despite a -51 run differential. So, to say I’m surprised with their recent results would be putting it mildly. I’ll point out that they have faced arguably the worst teams in baseball (Oakland, Washington) during this win streak and that half of the victories have come by one run. I believe tonight’s a great spot to fade them.

Though they were off the previous two days, Seattle had to play a doubleheader yesterday in D.C. So the schedule doesn’t set up well for them heading into Arlington where they’ll have to face Martin Perez in the series opener. The Rangers are 6-0 in Perez’s last six starts despite some shaky outings from the lefty during that stretch. Perez allowed six runs in his last start, but the team still ended up beating Minnesota 9-7. I’m not concerned about the subpar start, however. That’s because Perez has a 2.72 ERA on the season and has allowed 1 or 0 ER in 10 of his 17 starts. He’s actually been the most profitable pitcher to bet on (+10.6 units) in the first half of the season.

Another reason I’m fading the Mariners here is because they have Marco Gonzales starting. Gonzales should be set for some serious regression as he has the highest FIP of any qualified starter! His strikeout rate this season is actually a career-low. Even with Gonzales’ better than expected numbers, the team has lost 11 of his 17 starts. Here he faces a Texas team that is averaging more than six runs per game over the last week. The Rangers should have a better record (as they have a positive run differential). Four of Seattle’s wins during this 10-game run were 2-1 finals. That seems unsustainable. 10* Texas

9* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox are facing the prospect of getting swept, having lost each of the L3 days here in Tampa. That’s not a position I would have expected them to be in, although yesterday the visitors were at a clear disadvantage facing Shane McClanahan. A troubling sign for Boston in the loaded AL East is that they have yet to win a single division series all season (0-9-1) and have an 11-23 record against the other four teams. But I do expect them to avoid the sweep here. I believe them to be a better team than the Rays. It wasn’t that long ago that Boston had a top five run differential in all of baseball. 

I played Kutter Crawford (great name for a pitcher) in his last start. The Red Sox righty gave up just one run and four hits over five innings and the team ended up getting the 6-5 win (as a big underdog) against the Yankees. The Rays are averaging only 4.0 rpg at home this season, so just a little offense is all the road team needs here. They have the same number of hits as the Rays the L2 days. It is very nonsensical to me to see the Red Sox struggling so mightily in division contests. 

Since they can’t have McClanahan on the mound again tonight, Tampa Bay will instead be turning to Dean Rasmussen. While Rasmussen’s numbers are solid, particularly at home, something to keep in mind is that he rarely pitches deep into games. He’s averaged just 4 ⅓ innings in his L3 starts and there have been only three times all season that Rasmussen has made it past the fifth. The Red Sox had the highest team batting average in the league coming into this series while Tampa Bay’s lineup continues to deal with multiple injuries. 9* Boston

9* Under Padres/Rockies (3:10 ET): We saw a combined 16 runs and 29 hits from these teams yesterday, but that was after the first two games of the series both stayed Under. The Rockies, as per usual, on average have the highest scoring home games in the league. But that average is still only 11.3 runs per game. I’m a little surprised what’s happened to the Padres in this series. I took them (and won) on Monday as they avenged a prior sweep by Colorado, but since then it’s been back to back losses. Look for the scoring to drop in this afternoon’s series finale as we’ve got an all-lefty starting pitching matchup here. 

Blake Snell may have a lousy won-loss record for San Diego (1-8), but he is coming off two straight impressive outings where he allowed just one run both times and struck out 23 batters in just 11 innings. Furthermore, Snell has pitched relatively well in two starts against the Rockies this year and most importantly both games saw 11 or fewer total runs scored. In eight of Snell’s nine starts this year, there have been fewer than 11 runs scored. In seven of those games, the Padres have scored three runs or less. The Padres’ bullpen has also been pretty solid of late, ranking seventh in team ERA since June 1st.

Colorado will send Kyle Freeland out to the hill today. Freeland is off a rough outing in Arizona, but had a strong June with four quality starts. He also beat the Padres twice last month, allowing just six runs in 13 IP. Even with the “benefit” of Coors Field, I don’t see these two lineups coming close to matching yesterday’s output. San Diego came into yday’s game averaging only 2.9 runs over the last week while Colorado wasn’t much better (3.7) and was batting just .209 over that same stretch. These two pitchers are better than you think and neither lineup is all that good. 9* Under Padres/Rockies

10* LA Angels (9:38 ET): I cashed the Angels last night, using the run line (+1.5) to my advantage. For tonight’s game, that particular luxury isn’t available. However, that’s okay as we’ve got Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The last month or so has been pretty brutal in Anaheim, but whenever Ohtani pitches, things seem to go well for the team. They are 5-0 over his L5 starts and Ohtani hasn’t even allowed a single run over the last four! I know that the current state of the two teams makes playing the Angels seem a bit “dicey,” but Ohtani is an absolute difference-maker. 

Now the Angels almost stole last night’s game - despite managing only two hits. They rallied for four runs in the bottom of the seventh to tie things up. Incredibly, the Angels would benefit from two Houston errors, a hit batter with the bases loaded and a passed ball. I realize that’s not a recipe for consistent success and that Mike Trout left the game with back spasms. Nevertheless, Trout had been in a slump anyway and I still see the Angels getting to Houston starter Cristian Javier, who allowed three home runs and five runs total (against Kansas City!) in his most recent start.

Ohtani is working on a streak of 28 ⅔ scoreless innings. He has 34 strikeouts over his L3 starts and has allowed only 12 hits during the scoreless streak. All things considered, this is a ridiculously cheap price on the Japanese superstar. The Angels are now 0-4 this month vs. the Astros, but I like it when the revenge angle (for a previous sweep) is in play, especially in a division matchup. 10* LA Angels

6* Miami (6:40 ET): I’ve previously written, as recently as last Saturday, that it’s quite rare to see a team get swept at home in a four-game series. Yet that dubious fate is awaiting Miami if they don’t win in the next two days. They’ve allowed the Pirates (of all teams!) to come in and take the first two games of this four-game set, 5-1 and 3-2, both times as sizable underdogs. Pittsburgh has now won four in a row (a season-high), but I wouldn’t count on the team with the second worst run differential in all of baseball (-124) to keep winning. Not with Pablo Lopez set to take the mound on Wednesday. 

Lopez has a 2.63 ERA and 0.976 WHIP here at home. His last three starts have all come on the road, but the last two were successful as he downed both Washington and the Mets, the former with a quality start and the latter by holding them to one run in five innings. Pittsburgh is not a strong offensive club by any means as they come in averaging just 3.4 runs per game on the road with a .217 batting average. 

Now Miami will need to get its own offense going after scoring just 21 total runs its last nine games. They’ve still managed to win four times in that stretch, mind you, and I don’t think it’s going to take a ton of runs to win today. Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker only made it through five innings (tying a season-low) in his last start and the team lost 4-3 to the Brewers, dropping Brubaker’s record for the year to 2-8 in 17 starts. He’s 0-6 on the road and furthermore the Bucs are 12-40 in the third game of a series, going back to last season. The Marlins happen to be a perfect 6-0 L6 after dropping the first two games of a series. 6* Miami

9* Under Tigers/Royals (2:10 ET): After being swept in Monday’s doubleheader, the Tigers bounced back with a 7-5 win last night, which was good for me as I gave them out. For this afternoon’s finale, we turn to the total as Tarik Skubal goes for the visitors and Brady Singer for the home team. We know the Tigers probably won’t score many runs here. Despite yesterday’s offensive output, they are 29th (second to last) in most major offensive categories, including runs scored. Going into yesterday, they were averaging only 2.7 rpg on the road for the season. 

Detroit definitely had some help in getting to seven runs yesterday. Kansas City committed four errors, three of those coming in the seventh when the Tigers would go on to score four times. Don’t look for the Royals to be so generous in the field again here. As for Singer, he’s got a solid 1.041 WHIP at home. He also beat the Tigers earlier this month, allowing just two runs in 4 ⅔ IP. Last time out, Singer went seven innings and allowed only three runs. So he’s in good form. Again, facing the Tigers lineup is pretty much a “dream scenario” for any pitcher. 

On the other side, Skubal is also coming off a quality start as he held the White Sox to two runs over six innings. Skubal has pretty decent numbers on the road (3.35 ERA, 1.137 WHIP). Back in May, this is a pitcher who had an 18-inning scoreless streak and didn’t allow any runs in four of five outings. There were a couple of rough starts in June and he did allow five runs when he faced KC earlier this month. But the Royals are in last place for a reason; they average just 3.5 rpg here at home. Look for this to be a low-scoring, daytime affair. 9* Under Tigers/Royals

7* Run Line LA Angels (9:38 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Angels +1.5. I know that things haven’t been good for the Halos these past two months and they come into Tuesday on a four-game losing streak after being swept in Baltimore. Overall, they’ve dropped eight of nine. But three of the last five losses have been by exactly one run. There were two different games in Baltimore where the Angels blew two-run advantages. This is a revenge spot as the Astros swept them to start the month. At home and +1.5, I think this is a solid value. 

Since sweeping the Angels, Houston has faced Kansas City and Oakland, the two worst teams in the American League. They dropped a game in both series, but overall have now won 19 of their last 24 games. But I still see them as a bit of a “shaky favorite” for Tuesday with Luis Garcia on the mound. Garcia has won four straight decisions, but also did give up five runs in his last outing. He’s also allowed a home run in three of those last four starts. Winning by more than a run is hard to do on the road.

The Angels counter with Noah Syndergaard, who has nice numbers at home (2.62 ERA, 0.985 WHIP) and should be able to keep his team in this game. Syndergaard did not face Houston earlier this month in the previous series. He did start July with seven solid innings against the White Sox (where he gave up only three runs and got the win). Last time out, Syndergaard allowed only two runs and five hits. To be clear, I do believe the underdog has a very solid chance at pulling the “outright” upset here. But just to be cautious, go with the RL instead. 7* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

10* Detroit (8:10 ET): The Tigers, who are a bottom six team in all of baseball, have won more games than they should have this season. That statement is based on their run differential (-96), which says this 36-51 outfit has actually played to the level of a 31-win team so far. However, after being swept in Monday’s doubleheader here in KC, this is a good spot to take the Tigers. The Royals are a bottom four team in all of baseball and have not won four games in a row (which they are vying to do here) all season. I also believe that the Tigers happen to own a substantial edge in tonight’s starting pitching matchup. 

It will be Beau Brieske going for the visitors on Tuesday. Brieske is coming off B2B quality outings, including 6 ⅓ shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. the White Sox his last time out. It was the second time in his last five starts that Brieske went six-plus innings and didn’t give up a run. Interestingly enough, the first of the B2B quality starts we’ve seen from him came against the Royals, who he held to three runs over six innings. That was in Detroit, but there’s no need to worry about KC improving much offensively here as they came into yesterday’s twinbill averaging only 3.5 runs per game at home.

Now the Tigers must get their offense going after managing just four runs in the two games Monday. Offense has been a problem all year as they are 29th (second worst) in almost all major categories (with Oakland being the worst). But facing Kris Bubic here may be what the Tigers need to get rolling at the plate. Bubic is just 1-6 in 12 starts and he has a 6.99 ERA and 1.888 WHIP. At home, those numbers get even worse. Bubic has yet to even win a decision at home. He came out on the losing end opposite Brieske in that last series between the teams. Given this pitching matchup, the likelihood of the Royals winning again is small. 10* Detroit

9* San Diego (8:40 ET): The Padres got humiliated on Sunday, losing to the Giants (at home) by a score of 12-0. That was the 8th time in the last 10 games that SD failed to score more than two runs. But moving away home, I expect to see the Padres start to score more. First off, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road compared to 3.6 at Petco Park. I can’t imagine there’s another team with a bigger road vs. home split when it comes to scoring. Secondly, the Padres are traveling to Coors Field on Monday. Typically a haven for visitors scoring, Rockies’ opponents are averaging 5.6 rpg this season at Coors. 

Now, the Rockies are leading the league in runs scored at home with 5.8 per game. Plus they swept the Padres here last month. They’ve in fact won five straight in this NL West rivalry. But such was the case for the Padres against the Giants until the last two days. It’s very hard to keep beating the same opponent, time after time, especially when it’s a division foe. The Rockies did just take three of four in Arizona over the weekend, but it’s not like they’re some great team. They remain 10 games below .500 with a -78 YTD run differential. San Diego is 10.5 games ahead of them and in Wild Card position.

Starting here for the Padres will be Sean Manaea, who actually has better numbers on the road than at home. Manaea is coming off his shortest outing of ‘22 (3 ⅓ IP), but look for him to bounce back as there’d previously been only two other times where he failed to last six innings. He has 11 quality starts and a 7-4 TSR when you take away daytime starts. Going for Colorado will be Jose Urena, who made his first start of the season last week (against the Dodgers). While it went relatively well, Urena had more walks than strikeouts and the Rockies still lost. The team has lost 14 of its last 20 series openers. 9* San Diego

10* NY Mets (7:20 ET): The top two teams in the NL East are set to collide for three games in Atlanta this week. The Mets’ lead in the division is down to 1.5 games and that’s the last thing their fanbase wants to hear after the way last season went down. I wrote yesterday that the Mets have experienced a bit of good fortune in racing out to MLB’s fourth best record as they had been a perfect 6-0 in extra inning games. Wouldn’t you know? I bet against them Sunday and they lost 2-0 to Miami in 10 innings. But today, they’ve got Max Scherzer on the bump and as an underdog, that’s just too good to pass up.

Atlanta just swept Washington and has won six of its last seven games. They were 23-27 at the start of June and are now 52-35. That’s a 29-8 run. But they too went to extras on Sunday, needing 12 innings to get by the Nats 4-3, their second consecutive one-run victory. I respect the Braves, but the Mets are also 25-6 their L31 games after a loss. A situation like this, I see a lot of value on the dogs, particularly with Scherzer pitching. 

So Scherzer returned to the rotation last Tuesday and couldn’t possibly have pitched any better. In his first start in nearly two months, he went six innings and allowed only two hits (no runs) with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. Shockingly, the Mets still lost the game, 1-0 to Cincinnati. Scherzer has now made nine starts this year and allowed more than 3 ER only once and 1 ER or less six times. Like I said, it’s rare to get him at this price. Atlanta will send out Max Fried, who doesn’t have to take a back seat to many starting pitchers, but I’d still rate Scherzer as being better. 10* NY Mets

9* Under Pirates/Marlins (6:40 ET): This will be the first time these teams meet in 2022. Miami, an underrated team, is coming off a 2-0 win Sunday over the Mets to earn a split of that series and move within two games of .500. With Sandy Alcantara on the bump, I had the Marlins yesterday as my NL East Game of the Month. The team has a positive run differential. The same cannot be said for Pittsburgh (-129), who continues to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball despite just taking two of three from first place Milwaukee over the weekend. I do not expect many runs to be scored in Monday’s game. Take the Under.

Miami’s Trevor Rogers was second in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, but it now can be argued that he’s going through a bit of a “sophomore slump.” Rogers has made it through a full six innings just once in 16 starts this year. But recently there have been signs of a turnaround as he’s allowed 3 ER in each of his L3 starts. Tonight he’ll be facing a Pirates lineup that is near the bottom of the league at 3.4 runs per game on the road with a .214 batting average. Rogers allowed only four hits and had five strikeouts last night, encouraging skipper Don Mattingly. The Under is 17-6-5 in Pittsburgh’s L28 road games vs. a southpaw starter. Since June 1st, they are bottom four overall in both batting average and slugging. 

Mitch Keller is going for the Bucs here. His last start was a disaster with the team losing 16-0 to the Yankees. But he’s not facing the Yankees this time. It should be noted that Keller allowed only four of those runs against the Yanks. Last month, Keller allowed 3 ER or less in four of five starts. Miami’s lineup has not exactly been hitting the cover off the ball as they’ve averaged only 2.6 runs over the L7 games with a .213 average. Both of these teams have seen eight or fewer totals runs scored in six of the last eight games. 9* Under Pirates/Marlins

9* San Francisco (4:10 ET): The Giants FINALLY broke through with a win against the Padres last night, snapping a five-game losing streak in this NL West rivalry. I had them and it ended up being a 3-1 win. As I wrote in the analysis for Saturday’s game, the Padres have MAJOR issues scoring runs at home as they are averaging 3.6 per game while batting a collective .223 here. Over the last nine games overall, there have been only two instances of the Padres scoring more than two runs. They had just three hits yday and struck out 12 times. With those kind of putrid offensive numbers, how can you NOT like the dog in this one? 

The Giants have had their own offensive issues of late, including this series where they’ve scored a total of just seven runs. But Carlos Rodon was able to get the job done for them on Saturday and I think today’s starter, Alex Wood, is capable of a similar effort. Wood did have a terrible start last month at Atlanta where he allowed six runs in one inning. But other than that, he’s been quite effective. Last time out, he allowed just one run and four hits in five innings. This is also a great price on Wood as it's only the fourth time in 2022 that he comes in as a money line underdog.

San Diego counters with Mackenzie Gore. Similar to Wood, he had a rough stretch last month and has since improved. But the problem for Gore is that he continues to walk a TON of batters. He’s issued at least three free passes in six consecutive starts. So if the Giants’ hitters are patient at the plate this afternoon, they should be able to get on base and score. The Padres only have three wins in their last nine games and with the recent offensive woes, that makes the Giants look very attractive at ‘plus money.’ 9* San Francisco

10* Texas (2:35 ET): Coming into this series, I thought the Rangers might play well and sure enough they’ve taken the first two games from the Twins. It was 9-7 last night, but Minnesota got almost all of its runs in one big inning (a six-run fourth). Back on Friday, the Rangers prevailed 6-5, thanks to a six-run inning of their own. This is a team that’s outscored its opponents this season and is deserving of a better won-loss record. On Sunday, Texas hopes to rub off some of its recent good fortune on starter Dane Dunning, who is long overdue a victory, something he last tasted on 4/30 vs. Atlanta. 

Dunning has certainly pitched well this season here in Arlington where he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.007 WHIP. But that’s translated into just ONE winning decision. He’s 1-1 at Globe Life Park with a 4-4 TSR. Dunning has struggled on the road, but it’s been four straight quality starts at home where he’s allowed just five runs in 25 IP. Dunning is the ONLY pitcher right now to have at least seven quality starts and no more than one victory on the season. He’s due! 

Now I know that the Twins have not lost four in a row at any point this season, going 3-0 after three consecutive losses. But there’s a first time for everything. Yes, the Twins have blown leads in three straight games, but it is very hard to trust Dylan Bundy when he has a 5.89 ERA and 1.444 WHIP away from home. The Twins are also 1-6 following a game where they scored five runs or more. I look for the Rangers to finish off the sweep here and get Dunning that elusive win. 10* Texas

8* Cleveland (2:10 ET): The Guardians finally broke their long losing streak on Saturday and did so in emphatic fashion, beating the last place Royals 13-1. They collected 23 hits, fourth most in franchise history, and five different players had at least three. For the Royals, it was a bit more dubious history as it was the most hits allowed in a game since 2013. KC did win Friday’s opener in walkoff fashion, 4-3, but they are a bottom five team in the power rankings and up against a tough pitcher today in Zac Plesac. 

Plesac deserves far better than a 2-6 record. The team is just 6-9 in his 15 starts, but the blame should not go to the pitcher as he has a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Those aren’t awesome numbers by any means, but lately Plesac has been outstanding with a 2.14 ERA and 1.024 WHIP his L7 starts. He’s gone exactly six innings in all seven starts while never allowing more than 3 ER. He allowed 2 ER or less in six of the seven starts. Against Kansas City, Plesac is 6-0 all-time with a 2.29 ERA in 11 starts. 

The problem for Plesac this season has been lack of run support. The Guardians have scored just six runs total in his last four starts and per FanGraphs, Plesac gets the third worst run support of any starter in baseball. But we saw what the Guardians did at the plate yesterday. They may not be able to duplicate that here, but definitely look for them to score plenty against the washed Zack Greinke, who allowed six runs his last time out. Greinke has also allowed multiple HRs in three of his last five starts. The Guardians are 7-2 their last nine games after scoring 5+ runs. 8* Cleveland

9* Miami (1:40 ET): The Mets may have the fourth best record in baseball, but they’ve had a lot of good fortune go their way. Look no further than last night’s somewhat miraculous 5-4 come from behind win over the Marlins. After tying the game 4-4 in the bottom of the 10th, on Tomas Nido’s RBI double, the Metropolitans scored the winning run on a throwing error by Miami pitcher Tanner Scott. The Mets are now 7-0 this season in games decided in extra innings, easily the best such mark in all of MLB. They were outhit 11-5 in yday’s game! 

Miami has had the “opposite luck” of the Mets (18 one-run losses - most in MLB). But they have Sandy Alcantara on the bump Sunday and I love this price on the presumed NL Cy Young frontrunner. Alcantara has gone at least seven innings in 11 consecutive starts, which is something that no other pitcher has done since 2016. He deserves far better than a 3-5 career record vs. NY as his ERA (in 12 starts) is 2.96. Overall, Alcantara has a 1.82 ERA and 0.908 WHIP this season. Last time out, he tossed eight shutout innings and had 10 strikeouts with zero walks. That followed a complete game victory at St. Louis. 

Last night’s game should have never even gone to extra innings. Miami had the bases loaded, with nobody out, in the first inning yet somehow failed to get anyone across the plate. This is a team that has outscored its opponents in 2022. It was a bit of a costly win for the Mets on Saturday as both Starling Marte and James McCann exited with injuries. I know that Mets’ starter Taijuan Walker beat the Marlins twice last night, once opposite Alcantara, and has had a great season in his own right. But this third time will be the charm for the Marlins vs. Walker as they should have won yesterday’s game and the Mets are just 2-9 L11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. 9* Miami

7* Tampa Bay (1:40 ET): The Reds have shockingly taken the first two games of this three-game set, winning both times in their final at-bat. It was a “balk-off” on Friday (as in they won on a balk) followed by a come from behind effort on Saturday. In what quickly turned into a “lost season” in Cincinnati (team lost 22 of its first 25 games), they’ve actually experienced a bit of good fortune recently with four walk-off wins in the last eight games. But with Shane Baz on the hill Sunday, I think the third time will be the charm for the Rays. 

Cincy has won four in a row only one other time this season - Memorial Day weekend - when they took two games from the Cubs and then two from the Giants. They have not swept a series all season. Things have stabilized since that brutal start as the Reds have basically been a .500 team over the L2 months. But they are still in the bottom five in my power ratings and have lost money in virtually all situations. This includes day games where they are 13-22. Not only did they have to score twice in the 10th to win yesterday, but they needed a three-run rally in the eighth just to tie the game. 

Look for Baz to be the difference maker in this series finale. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in four consecutive starts and done so against some of the top teams. The Reds are only hitting .220 over the last week while averaging 3.1 runs per game. Only Washington (who is dead last in my power ratings) has given up more runs this season than Cincinnati. Sunday’s starter for the Reds is Nick Lodolo, who has been steadily improving, but with him yet to make it a full six innings, the Reds’ horrible bullpen will be called upon early. That’s another edge to the visitors, who are the better team and due for a breakout game at the plate. 7* Tampa Bay

9* Run Line Boston (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line selection where I am taking the Red Sox +1.5. It’s not been a good series thus far for the home team, who has dropped the first two games 6-5 and 12-5. The Yankees are admittedly pretty ridiculous with the best record and run differential in all of MLB. However, they are basically just a coinflip proposition as a road favorite of -125 to -175, going 10-9 this year in such games. Boston stayed within a run in the series opener and, at worst, I think they can do that again Saturday. 

After the Yankees and Astros, the American League is not particularly strong this season. But a case can be made that the Red Sox are perhaps the Junior Circuit’s third best team. Most likely, there will be at least two Wild Cards coming from the AL East. It’s a tight three-team race for second in the division right now between the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. With the other two floundering, it’s imperative (for Boston) not to get swept this weekend. One positive here is they are 14-6 vs. left-handed starters this season and the Yankees are starting a southpaw (Jordan Montgomery) on Saturday.

The Yankees had won seven straight Montgomery starts before losing the last one, 2-0 at Cleveland. Ironically, the loss was Montgomery’s best of his last three starts. He’d allowed a total of nine runs (in 12 ⅔ IP) the previous two. Montgomery has a 4.15 ERA in six previous starts at Fenway and the Yankees’ bullpen was called in early yesterday when Nestor Cortes faltered. The Red Sox are going with Kutter Crawford (great name for a pitcher), who will be making his third big league start and is still searching for his first win. Admittedly, it seems like a tough assignment, but I look for Crawford and the Red Sox to surprise here. 9* Run Line Boston (+1.5)

10* San Francisco (7:15 ET): The Giants have lost the first two games of the series and five in a row overall to the Padres, going back to the previous series with them (which was at home back in May). Things have taken a bit of a dire turn here in July for the Giants, who finished last season with the best record in all of baseball. They’ve won just once in the last seven games and that was a come from behind effort where they were down four runs early. But with Carlos Rodon on the hill Saturday, I sense that an elusive win is forthcoming. These teams are pretty even in my eyes. 

The visitors have simply not shown much at the plate in this series, picking up just seven hits in two games. They were still able to force extra innings in the opener on Thursday despite just two hits. Yesterday, the difference in the game ended up being SD scoring three times in the bottom of the first. Rodon should limit what the Padres do early on though as he’s allowed more than two runs in just three of his 16 starts this season. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in half of his starts and held the Padres to two runs and five hits when he faced them on 5/21. San Diego isn’t a strong offensive team at home, averaging just 3.7 rpg and hitting a collective .226. 

Now the Giants will need to get the bats going here somehow against Yu Darvish. The Padres don’t allow many runs at home and Darvish has a 1.75 ERA/0.734 WHIP here. But Darvish is coming off an outing where he allowed three home runs (to the Dodgers). Darvish should not expect much run support tonight as last night saw the Padres match their highest-scoring effort in the L10 games. They’d previously scored two runs or less in six of seven. It should also be noted that Darvish’s worst start of the season came against the Giants, back in April, as he allowed nine runs in just 1 ⅔ innings. Look for SF to (finally) breakthrough here with a win. 10* San Francisco

8* Arizona (4:10 ET): The Diamondbacks have lost by one run in each of the first two games vs. Colorado, which comes on the heels of them blowing a 4-0 lead and losing to San Francisco. Previous to that, the D’backs had won five of eight. But now they’ve fallen into a last place tie with the Rockies, who have the worst YTD run differential (-72 vs. -45) as well as the fewest number of road wins in the National League (14). As was the case with the White Sox, I just can’t see the home team getting swept this weekend.

Arizona had an early lead last (3-1 after the second inning) and didn’t fall behind until the sixth. They had a chance to tie in the bottom of the ninth, but lined out to end the game with a runner on second base. Again, I’ve got to go back to the lack of trustworthiness in the Rockies on the road. They are averaging just 3.0 rpg outside of Coors Field. The dramatic home vs. road split at the plate has defined this franchise throughout its existence. Colorado is still just 6-16 their L22 games off a win while the D’backs have won four of the last five times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series.

Kyle Freeland had been pitching well for the Rockies until he ran into the Dodgers on Monday. But even after a decent June, Freeland still has a 4.43 ERA and 1.369 WHIP. He’s 3-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 16 previous starts vs. Arizona, who will go with Madison Bumgarner here. MadBum got the win his last time out, as a +170 dog against San Francisco. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in four of his last five starts. In 39 career starts vs. the Rockies, Bumgarner is 18-10 with 3.39 ERA. I cannot see the Rockies winning three in a row on the road as they’ve yet to do that all season. In fact, they have just one three-game win streak of any kind since May 1st. 8* Arizona

7* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): I simply cannot believe that Detroit has now won six in a row. That’s a season-best win streak for the Tigers, who have been outscored by 80 runs and have a Pythagorean win expectation of 31. With five more wins than “expected,” the Tigers are the biggest overachievers in baseball, with the exception of Pittsburgh (who has seven more wins than expected). I know that betting against teams that are “hot” isn’t always the greatest move, but I’m simply NOT a believer in the Tigers. 

I’m not exactly “in love” with the White Sox either as they too have more wins than you’d expect based on their run differential (-47). But it’s hard for me to see them getting swept at home by Detroit. The White Sox took an early 2-0 lead last night and maintained that through five innings. They ended up with more hits than the Tigers (11 to 8) in yday’s game, but ended up leaving eight runners on base. While the Sox have admittedly struggled at home this season, the Tigers have just 13 road wins to their name, the fewest in baseball. 

Johnny Cueto starting here for Chicago is a good sign. Not only is he off B2B quality starts, but he’s allowed 3 ER or less each of his last six trips to the mound. Remember that Detroit only averages 2.7 rpg on the road, last in all of MLB. Javier Baez, who has been the Tigers’ hottest hitter, is just 1 for 14 lifetime against Cueto. I know that rookie starter Garrett Hill impressed in his big league debut for the Tigers last week vs. Cleveland, but let’s see him do that again. 7* Chi White Sox

9* Over Tigers/White Sox (2:10 ET): So I also like the Over in this game. Yes, Detroit is last in the league in runs scored on the road and overall. But it’s undeniable that they’ve been a lot better at the plate lately, scoring seven or more runs in three of the last four games. I had the Under in the series opener (which won!), but that’s the only game during the current six-game win streak where the Tigers did NOT score at least four runs.

Also, while Cueto has pitched quite well of late, it’s probably going to take a healthy number of runs for the White Sox to win this game. At home, they are allowing a stunning average of 5.8 rpg, which is the MOST in all of baseball, even more than what the Rockies allow at Coors Field. We’re still a half-run below the key number of 9.0 with this total and I think there’s value on the Over.  Both teams are averaging more than 5.4 rpg over the last week. Look for the home team to win a high-scoring ballgame on Saturday. 9* Over Tigers/White Sox

7* Arizona (9:40 ET): Colorado won the series opener last night, 4-3, but we all know they are a bad road team (13-26 record) and thus I think it's unlikely that they’ll win again tonight. Going back to last weekend’s series at Coors Field, the Rockies have now won three in a row over the D’backs. While history did repeat itself from that last series, as Austin Gomber beat Dallas Keuchel last night, again I do not see the same thing occurring here with another pitching rematch of Chad Kuhl vs. Zac Gallen. 

Colorado won last night’s game on a ninth inning double from Randal Grichuk, which was the only run scored after the fourth inning - for either team. For Arizona, last night marked the second straight loss where they entered the ninth inning tied. They blew a 4-0 lead Wednesday vs. San Francisco here at home, so that’s two very highly disappointing results in a row. But the host D’backs still can “hang their hat” on the fact Colorado’s road record is the worst in all of MLB. Going into yday’s game, the Rockies had lost 9 of 10 away from Coors Field. Also, look for the Rocks to commit an error tonight. They haven’t committed one in any of the last 12 games, tying the franchise record set in 1998, yet still lead all of MLB with 59 errors this season. 

When Kuhl and Gallen faced off last week, Gallen was the better pitcher as he allowed just three runs and four hits in six innings while Kuhl gave up five runs and seven hits in five innings. Gallen has not lost a decision at home this year (6-2 TSR) thanks in large part to a 0.936 WHIP here. Kuhl has a 7.58 ERA in five career appearances vs. Arizona while Gallen has a 2.38 ERA in nine career starts vs. Colorado. 7* Arizona

10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Though it’s “only” early July, one could make the case that this is a pretty important series for both playoff hopefuls, one week before the All-Star Break. Only percentage points currently separate the Phillies and Cardinals in the battle for that last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cards did have the upper hand before dropping three of four in Atlanta earlier this week. They’ve also got a pathway into the postseason via the division where they only trail first place Milwaukee by 2.5 games (have the better run differential). With this series being at home, I give the Redbirds the edge in tonight’s opener. 

Adam Wainwright is the man on the mound for St. Louis here. He’s pitched a lot better at Busch Stadium than on the road in 2022. Wainwright’s ERA and WHIP are 2.25 and 1.136 here where the team has gone 5-2 with him starting. He doesn’t have his usual catcher (Yadier Molina) behind the plate, but Wainwright does own a 3.18 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. Philadelphia. He did lose to them last Sunday, giving up four runs in 5 ⅔ innings, but that was in Philly. 

This is an immediate revenge spot for Wainwright as he again goes against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler didn’t allow any runs in his 7 IP last Sunday, but his numbers on the road aren’t as good as they are at home this season. In fact, his ERA and WHIP are up to 4.45 and 1.454 respectively outside the City of Brotherly Love. I don’t see Wheeler beating Wainwright two straight times and view the change in home field advantage as being significant. The Cardinals are allowing only 3.7 rpg at home, tied for 7th best in MLB. I think the Cardinals’ bats heat up this weekend while the Phillies’ cool off. It was a big win yday for StL (as +200 ML dogs!). That carries over to today. 10* St. Louis

9* Run Line Milwaukee (8:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Brewers -1.5. Secondly, just like with the Rays-Reds matchup, we’ve got the same situational edge going to the team that doesn’t really need it. The Brew Crew have dominated the Pirates this season, going 8-2 in head to head matchups, including a 3-0 sweep in the Bucs’ lone prior visit here to American Family Field. With Pittsburgh coming off that doubleheader yesterday while Milwaukee had Thursday off, all signs point to a blowout victory for the home club in this series opener. 

Despite somehow being third in the division, the Pirates just might be the worst team in all of baseball. They definitely have the worst run differential (-131) and the seven-game gap between the team’s actual and expected win totals is the largest in all of baseball. In fact, Detroit is the only other team to have exceeded its Pythagorean win expectation by at least five games. Starting tonight for the Bucs will be JT Brubaker, who is 0-5 on the road (2-7 TSR) this season and has allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in his L17 IP vs. Milwaukee. The Pirates’ bullpen is also lousy, so expect Milwaukee to put plenty of runs on the board here. Pittsburgh is already being outscored by 2.0 rpg on the road this year. 

The Brewers have lost their last two games (to the Cubs) but still lead the NL Central. The last series was an uncharacteristically “off” performance from closer Josh Hader, who leads MLB with 25 saves. Typically, you get great starting pitching from Milwaukee. Andy Ashby gets the nod Friday and will be looking to rebound after losing to Pittsburgh last week. That was Ashby’s first start back from the IL. He should pitch a lot better tonight here at home as he has solid career marks vs. Pittsburgh. So just go ahead and “write off” that last one. The Pirates are an awful team. 9* Run Line Milwaukee

7* Tampa Bay (6:40 ET): I truly can’t believe the price we’re getting here on one of the best pitchers in all of baseball going against one of the worst teams. The line should be much higher, even with the Rays being the road team. Their starter Shane McClanahan has a 1.74 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in 16 starts and only seems to be getting better. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and has a streak of 10 consecutive quality starts. He’s allowed 0 or 1 ER in each of the last five starts and now faces a Reds team that’s not only dead last in the NL Central, but also batting only .190 over its L7 games.

Further compounding matters here for the home team is the fact that the situation is just terrible for them. They split a doubleheader with fellow division also-ran Pittsburgh yesterday while TB had Thursday off. This is a huge edge to the road team. While Cincy has stabilized somewhat after losing 22 of its first 25 games this season, they firmly remain a bottom five team in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Rays are in second in the tough AL East and looking to strengthen their Wild Card position. They arrive here having won five of six, all on the road, against Toronto and Boston.

The Reds will also have their ace, Luis Castillo, on the mound tonight. But they are just 5-6 in his 11 starts and he has a 4.18 ERA at home. Castillo is no match for McClanahan, who not only leads the American League in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ batting average (.179), but is also tied for most strikeouts (133) as well. His aforementioned streak of 10 straight starts going at least six innings and allowing no more than 3 ER also has seen McClanahan strike out at least seven hitters every time. Doing those three things together has only been done three times since 1901 and it’s the longest streak EVER in American League history! Did I mention that McClanahan is 5-0 all-time in interleague starts, including 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA this year? 7* Tampa Bay

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!

10* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants broke their six-game losing streak last night (and I wasn’t too happy about that) as they came from behind to defeat Arizona 7-5. They now face another division rival, who also happens to be in trouble of late. The Padres have lost 8 of 10 overall and just dropped both games here at home to Seattle earlier in the week. I realize the home team had yesterday off and will be sending Joe Musgrove (2.25 ERA, 0.946 WHIP) to the bump tonight. But I believe the Giants to be the far better value in this NL West matchup. They have revenge for a 3-game sweep (suffered at home) back in May.

As good as Musgrove has been for San Diego, don’t underestimate what San Francisco starter Logan Webb has done of late. Webb has a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last three starts. That doesn’t even include the seven shutout innings he tossed back on 6/14. Webb is absolutely capable of matching Musgrove in this game. Look no further than an April 13th start where Webb beat the Padres by allowing just one run and four hits over eight innings. He did not pitch in the more recent series where the Giants got swept. San Diego has not hit the ball well recently (.225 L7 games) nor have they done much scoring during that time (2.3 runs per game). They also average just 3.7 rpg (.224 average) at home for the season. 

Musgrove has been great in 2022, but he’s shown signs of regression recently, namely by giving up five home runs in his last three starts. His ERA is 4.95 in those three starts and the last time he started here at Petco Park, he gave up six runs. Considering recent form and a lack of offense, Musgrove and a day off aren’t going to be enough for the Padres to win tonight. The Giants should come in with some confidence after last night’s come from behind win. Can’t say the same for the opposition. 10* San Francisco

9* Under Tigers/White Sox (8:10 ET): Both teams are coming off wins yesterday afternoon. The White Sox escaped with a 9-8 victory over the Twins in extra innings (good for me!) while the Tigers actually completed a four-game sweep of the Guardians with an 8-2 victory. That was also good for me as I had the Over in that Cleveland-Detroit game. This one promises to feature a lot fewer runs with Dylan Cease pitching for Chicago and the Tigers now being the road team. Make sure you’re on the Under for this series opener of AL Central foes.

Cease has been one of the American League’s top pitchers this season and is showing zero signs of letting up. The team has won each of the last four times he has started and over the last seven, Cease has a 0.46 ERA, having allowed only TWO runs during that entire stretch (in 39 ⅓ IP!). Here he faces a Tigers lineup that is dead last in MLB in scoring and that average dips even further when they’re on the road (2.7 runs per game). The Tigers are batting just .217 away from home, so don’t look for the same kind of scoring we saw from them in the Cleveland series. Cease is also 10-0 with a 1.91 ERA vs. Detroit in 11 career starts. 

 The White Sox have given up a lot of runs at home this season (5.8 rpg), but as I mentioned in yday’s analysis, that number HAS to start coming down. With Cease on the mound, it is likely the home team wins this one, which should mean no bottom of the ninth and that’s always a benefit when playing the Under. That being said, Detroit’s Beau Brieske is off a quality outing and has seen five of his last six starts stay Under. So don’t look for the White Sox to do much scoring tonight either. 9* Under Tigers/White Sox

8* Run Line Houston (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this play is on the run line as I’m taking the Astros -1.5. Houston shockingly lost to KC last night, 7-4 as a -265 money line favorite. The loss also ended the Stros’ seven-game win streak. They still lead the AL West, however, by a rather large margin (13 games). The Royals remain mired in last place in the AL Central with one of the worst records in baseball. I can’t see the home team losing again this afternoon and with Justin Verlander on the mound, I’m confident that they will win by at least two runs. 

Starting pitching has been a real strength for this Astros team in the first half, but injuries have hit the rotation hard. But Verlander is still here and he comes in with a 2.03 ERA and 0.832 WHIP. The team has already won 11 of his 15 starts this season and speaking of wins, there’s no team that Verlander has beaten more in his career than the Royals. Over his L2 starts, Verlander has allowed just one run in 15 IP, not to mention only six hits. Houston’s bullpen is also very good and I just do not see KC scoring many runs in this game. 

Kris Bubic is starting opposite Verlander on Thursday and he simply won’t be able to match the former Cy Young winner. Bubic has really struggled this year with a 7.23 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 11 starts. By the way, the Royals are just 9-18 off a win this season and 13-22 in day games. Houston is 19-8 off a loss and 21-9 in day games. On paper, this looks to be one the biggest single-game mismatches of the MLB season to date. 8* Run Line Houston (-1.5)

9* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamondbacks came from behind last night (five runs in the bottom of the eighth) to send the Giants to their sixth consecutive defeat. For me, that five-run rally had me sweating the Under, but the D’backs’ bullpen handled its business in the top of the ninth. Now the home team looks to finish off the series sweep and with a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, I think they do it. 

Merrill Kelly has pitched pretty well this season, in fact you could argue he’s pitching better than he ever has before. Certainly, Kelly is deserving of better than an 8-8 team start record. The D’backs have won four of his last six times out, including the most recent start where Kelly allowed just two runs (one unearned) and five hits over seven innings at Colorado. Kelly’s gone at least six innings in each of his L5 trips to the mound and three of those have seen him allow two runs or less. The Giants’ offense has really been struggling of late with a .202 batting average the last seven games and averaging only 2.6 rpg. This is seemingly a great matchup for Kelly tonight.

Alex Cobb starts for the Giants tonight and it’s not been a great 2022 for him. The team has lost each of the last three times he’s started, although that also has to do with lousy run support. Still, Cobb’s ERA on the road this year is 6.41. Arizona has been hitting the ball well of late and the Giants’ bullpen is simply not as good as what we saw last season. Look to last night for all the evidence you need. I think this is a really solid value on the home team considering how poor San Francisco has been recently. 9* Arizona

10* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox are looking at the prospect of getting swept for a SECOND time by the Twins this season. They are 0-5 head to head vs. the AL Central leaders so far in 2022, which includes 6-3 and 8-2 losses in the first two games of this series. Should be noted that the first game went into extra innings. I’ve said before that the White Sox were outperforming their run differential (now -45) by staying near .500, but the record and run differential are now a bit more “in line.” I do see the home team avoiding the sweep here on Wednesday afternoon behind lefty Lance Lynn. 

What has been most surprising about the White Sox this season is their poor performance at home. Not only is the club’s record 16-23 at Guaranteed Rate Field, but they’ve been outscored here by 1.8 runs per game! That has to change. Remember that the White Sox came into this series fresh off a sweep of the Giants, out in San Francisco. Lynn has been solid in four starts thus far, particularly the last one where he held the Giants to just three hits over six shutout innings. Lynn is unbeaten in five career starts vs. the Twins with a 2.19 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 29 IP. 

I thought yesterday’s final score (of 8-2) was misleading in the sense that the two teams had a similar number of hits (12 for the Twins, 10 for the White Sox). The difference in the game was that five of Minnesota’s 12 hits were home runs. Meanwhile, Chicago went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven men on base. I expect the hitting to come around this afternoon as the White Sox offense has been far more productive in the daytime than in night games. They face Joe Ryan, who has a 4.37 ERA and 4.48 FIP since returning from the injured list. But above all else, it’s just hard for me to fathom the White Sox being swept for a second time by the Twins. 10* Chi White Sox

8* Over Guardians/Tigers (1:10 ET): This has been a terrible series thus far for Cleveland, who not only got swept in a doubleheader on Monday, but then also lost 11-4 last night. That was my lone loss on Tuesday’s card (had the Guardians) as the Tigers have now won three in a row for just the third time all season. I’m not about to back them considering how they’ve overperformed their run differential this season. Being outscored by 89 runs, Detroit has a win expectancy of 28 games right now, but they are instead 33-47. But while I can’t back either side in this spot, I do like the total. 

Going back to last season, Tigers’ starter Michael Pineda has seen the Under hit in eight consecutive outings. I believe that streak ends today. Pineda’s individual numbers aren’t all that great, so you wouldn’t expect him to be someone with a perfect Under mark. His exit velocity is quite poor and there are several other advanced metrics which suggest regression is forthcoming for Mr. Pineda, who also gave up a pair of home runs in his last start. Cleveland had 11 hits in yesterday’s game and seems poised to break out of its slump at the plate here after going just 2 for 8 with RISP and leaving nine men on base Tuesday. 

Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians today. He has good-looking career marks vs. the Tigers, who also happen to be the lowest scoring team in the big leagues. This is why the Guardians still have the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers, despite losing three times to the Tigers in the last two days. But I expect Bieber to give up a few runs this afternoon. Like Pineda, Bieber has not pitched as well as some raw numbers might suggest. The Tigers do average more runs per game at home than on the road. In fact, it’s almost a full run per game difference. Look for this to be a surprisingly high-scoring affair. 8* Over Guardians/Tigers

10* Under Giants/D’backs (9:40 ET): The Giants, who finished the regular season with the best record in baseball in 2021, have really been stumbling of late. They’ve lost 11 of 14 and five in a row to fall out of Wild Card position in the National League. I’m not totally shocked by the regression, given that they had zero chance of matching LY’s historically profitable campaign (+45.8 units!). While I’m not confident enough to take the Giants today, one bit of good news for them is that I don’t think there’s any chance that Arizona scores eight runs again like they did yesterday. Take the Under in this NL West matchup.

The Diamondbacks are hitting a collective .218 this season, so yesterday’s outbreak at the plate was definitely rare. Now it was the fifth time in seven games they scored at least seven runs, but note that three of those were played at Coors Field in Denver. I think regression at the plate is coming even as the D’backs are set to face Alex Wood, who has struggled a bit recently. But Wood did allow just three runs in his last start (which ended up a 3-2 loss) and he is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 24 previous appearances vs. Arizona. 

Meanwhile, the Giants aren’t doing much hitting at all lately. The team batting average over the last seven games is just .195 and they’re averaging less than three runs per game. Now, a matchup with Tyler Gilbert seems tantalizing, but consider all of Gilbert’s previous starts have come on the road. We’ve got two lefties here, in a division matchup, and that’s a situation that historically lends itself to an Under. This total seems too high. 10* Under Giants/D’backs

9* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): The Cubs thought they were going to steal one on the Fourth of July when Seiya Suzuki hit a go-ahead, inside the park HR in the top of the ninth. Alas, it was not to be. The Cubs’ bullpen could not hold that one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth and then Milwaukee walked-off in the 10th with a Victor Caratini three-run HR. Look for the road team to get its revenge in this division matchup on Tuesday, however. The Brewers had only five hits yesterday and were very lucky to win that game. 

The Brew Crew lead the NL Central, but it’s worth noting that their run differential (+40) is inferior to that of the second place Cardinals (+62). Do I still think Milwaukee is a playoff team? Probably. But it’s actually been two straight games with just five hits each and it’s hard to keep winning that way. The Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks will be making his fourth start against them this season, so he knows this lineup well and should pitch effectively. Hendricks has won his last two starts, giving up only two runs in 13 ⅓ IP.

Prior to losing each of the L2 days in extra innings, the Cubs had won four in a row. I expect that at some point they will move past Pittsburgh into third place in the division. There’s obviously a big gap between the top two and bottom three teams in the Central, but not so much in today’s matchup where the Brewers will have rookie Jason Alexander starting. Opponents are batting .328 off Alexander and he has a 1.642 WHIP. His first career start came against the Cubs (back on 6/1) and the Brewers lost that game (to Hendricks). 9* Chi Cubs

7* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Guardians were swept in Monday’s doubleheader, which is really embarrassing when you consider who they were up against. The Tigers are not good, and should absolutely be ranked among the bottom six teams in all of baseball. They’ve been outscored by almost 100 runs in 79 games, one of the worst differentials in the game. They have played a bit better recently, winning 6 of 10, but a win streak of three games or more is something that’s happened for them only twice all season. Time to fade. 

What made yesterday’s sweep all the more remarkable is the fact the Tigers started two recent call-ups from Triple A. This is a team that’s used 14 different starters in the rotation this year. Drew Hutchinson, who has split time between Toledo (Triple-A club) and Detroit will make his third start at the big league level today. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in his previous two outings. Neither time saw him go a full five innings and he has more walks than strikeouts. It is hard for me to believe that Cleveland would lose to - essentially - three straight minor league starters. 

Cal Quantrill goes for the Guardians Tuesday and he’s coming off an outstanding outing where he went eight innings and allowed only three runs. It was his fourth quality start in the last six trips to the mound. Quantrill has a 2.76 ERA in five previous starts vs. Detroit, so it’s a clear edge on the mound for the Guardians. The Tigers also remain the lowest scoring team in the majors (just 3.0 rpg!) and are 29th (next to last) in both slugging and on base percentage. 7* Cleveland

9* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays were shut out in yesterday’s opener, 4-0. They now trail the Red Sox by two games in the AL East but would still be the third in the final Wild Card team for the American League. In fact, all three Wild Cards would be AL East teams were the playoffs to start today. Tampa Bay had won three in a row prior to Monday, all in Toronto, while scoring 24 runs. So I see them bouncing back from yesterday’s disappointing performance at the plate. They’ve got a MUCH stronger starter scheduled to go as well. 

Finishing yesterday’s game with just two hits, both singles, had to be extremely frustrating for the Rays considering Boston basically went with an opener (Austin Davis) as Alex Cora had to be scratched due to what was termed a “dead arm.” Again, as I said above, the Rays didn’t have any problems scoring in Toronto over the weekend. Today they do have to face Nick Pivetta, who is 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his L11 starts. But Pivetta’s KW ratio isn’t all that great and he has allowed a homer in B2B starts. I’m not convinced he can keep it going. 

Pitching has generally NOT been a problem for the Rays this season as their staff entered yday with the fourth lowest ERA in all of MLB. But it didn’t work out yesterday, even with opener Jalen Beeks tossing two scoreless innings. The recently recalled Josh Fleming came in and allowed three runs and eight hits. I like the Rays’ chances better today with Jeffrey Springs starting as he has an 8-2 TSR and the team is 5-0 his L5 starts. Springs hasn’t gone since June 24th, when he beat Pittsburgh, as he was dealing with a family medical emergency. So he should be fresh and come out strong on the hill this evening. 9* Tampa Bay

8* Over Mariners/Padres (4:10 ET): The Mariners showed up ready to rock on Monday, surprising me with an 8-2 win here in San Diego, who was a heavy favorite at home. After today, this brief series will be over. It’s certainly tempting to try with the Padres again as they look to avenge yesterday’s loss, but it’s also hard to overlook the fact they are just 2-7 over the last nine games. I think taking the Over is the “safer bet” here as both of Tuesday’s starters are likely to regress as the season moves forward. 

No pitching staff has a lower ERA than the Mariners’ 2.81 over the L37 games. Logan Gilbert, who is on the mound today, has certainly played a role in that with a top seven ERA in the American League, not to mention he’s holding opponents to a .227 batting average and has a 1.12 WHIP. But there are signs of regression such as a 4.09 xERA and a relatively high hard hit rate. San Diego hits righties a lot better than they do lefties and I think this is actually a pretty favorable matchup for a lineup that’s been underperforming of late. The Over is 5-0 the past five times the Padres have faced the Mariners. 

Mike Clevinger is still undefeated this year for the Padres. The team has gone 6-0 when he starts and his ERA & WHIP are even lower than Gilbert’s. But I also see regression forthcoming for Clevinger as he doesn’t strike out a ton of batter and there’s been only one time (his last start) where he made it through six innings. The Mariners’ lineup is really good at drawing walks, so they should get plenty of runners on base against Clevinger here. Once upon a time, we would have to be concerned about the M’s losing the DH from the lineup in this matchup. That’s not the case anymore. 8* Over Mariners/Padres

6* San Diego (6:40 ET): Seattle has somehow clawed its way back up into second place in the AL West. They are still three games below .500 mind you. It needs to be pointed out that three of their four series have been against either Oakland or Baltimore, two of the worst teams in the American League. They went 6-1 against the A’s alone. Now it’s a step up in class as they head down the coast to face San Diego in an annual interleague matchup. Last year, the Padres took all three games from the Mariners. They’re a stronger team this year and you should look for the home team to come out ahead in this one. 

The Padres avoided being swept Sunday, beating the Dodgers 4-2. They were +182 on the money line. Now they get to return home where they’re favored. Opponents are averaging only 3.5 runs per game at Petco Park while batting .209. Starting today for the Padres will be Sean Manaea, who is coming off back to back quality starts. He should have won his last time out, but the bullpen blew a 6-0 lead. Still, in five of his last six starts, Manaea has gone at least six innings and allowed three runs or less. You can count on him in this situation, especially with the Mariners being a pretty weak offensive ballclub.

The M’s average just 3.9 runs per game for the year and are below that number the L7 games, despite winning more than they’ve lost. The key has been allowing three runs or less in all but two games. However, I don’t see that happening here as Chris Flexen has a 5-10 TSR and in two career starts vs. SD his ERA is 21.21! Seattle is 3-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season while San Diego is 70-37 L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -250. The Mariners are also just 6-13 vs. lefties this year. 6* San Diego

9* Washington (11:05 AM ET): The Nationals are looking to avoid being swept here, in a four-game series at home no less. They are 1-11 against the Marlins this season. That’s an exceptionally bad record against any opponent, let alone one that’s still three games below .500. I’ve said in the past that Miami is better than its record (they have a positive run differential), but I still can’t see them sweeping a four-game series on the road. Not with an unproven starter on the mound.

Yesterday, it did briefly look like Washington might break through. They led 3-2 going into the ninth inning. But it was not to be as Miami scored two in the top of the ninth. After Washington tied it in the bottom of the ninth, the Marlins would eventually win 7-4 in 11 innings. But Miami leaned on its bullpen heavily Sunday and as alluded to above, today’s starter Braxton Garrett is incapable of carrying his team to victory. Having gone a full five innings only one time in five starts, Garrett allowed five runs his last time out and his lone career start against the Nats resulted in a 15-0 loss. 

Patrick Corbin is one of only two pitchers in all of baseball with double digit losses. His team start record is 4-12, but he is coming off a win as he struck out 12 over eight innings and allowed just one run vs. Pittsburgh. Corbin allowed just 2 ER in six innings when he faced Miami back in April. Truthfully, this is all about the situation as I’m a big believer that home teams are unlikely to be swept in four-game series at home, no matter who they are. 9* Washington

9* St. Louis (7:30 ET): I just don’t think that the moneyline should be this high for a matchup of two pretty evenly matched teams. Honestly, St. Louis is the better ballclub here and they won yesterday, by a score of 7-6. The Cards have a better YTD run differential and are currently 2.5 games up on the Phillies in the race for the last Wild Card spot. I really like the value we’re getting tonight on the road team, especially with Adam Wainwright starting.

Wainwright has thrown 91 innings in 15 starts, so he’s averaging just over 6.0 IP per outing and he also has a 3.07 ERA. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings against Miami, a game the Cardinals would go on to win 9-0. That performance was all the more impressive when you consider that Wainwright had previously never worked with catcher Ivan Herrera. The Cards are not only 10-5 in all Wainwright starts this year, but have also taken five of the last six. Behind Wainwright is one of MLB’s most consistent defenses. I doubt he’ll give up many runs here. 

Zach Wheeler is one of the Phillies’ top two starters (along with Aaron Nola), but the Phillies’ fielding is some of the worst in baseball, the bullpen isn’t great and Bryce Harper is missing from the lineup. Wheeler has been especially tough here at home, but the team has dropped his last two starts overall. The Cardinals lineup belted four straight home runs in the first inning of last night’s game and a second by the red-hot Nolan Arenado won the game in the 9th. I’m taking the better team at plus money. 9* St. Louis

10* Boston (2:20 ET): Shockingly, the Cubs have won the first two games of this series, 6-5 and 3-1. I just cannot see them sweeping the Red Sox, however. Boston had an outstanding June (where they went 20-6) and the only two American League teams with better run differentials are the Yankees and Astros. The Cubs aren’t quite a bottom five team in baseball, but they’re close (bottom seven in my power rankings) and the current four-game win streak actually equals a season-high, previously set in May when they defeated the Pirates and D’backs twice each. Boston is the right side here, even with the pitching matchup. 

Connor Seabold will be making his second start of the season here for the Red Sox. The first did not go well as he was charged with seven runs in just 4 ⅔ innings. That was the game that ended the team’s seven-game win streak and now they are just 1-4 since. But three of those losses have been by two runs or less. Seabold had to face Toronto in that first start and that lineup is a lot more potent than the Cubs, who are averaging only 3.2 runs per game this year in Interleague play. 

Because starter Alec Mills had to leave after facing only two batters yesterday, the Cubs’ bullpen comes into Sunday super taxed. Despite a couple of quality starts recently, I’m not convinced today’s starter (Keegan Thompson) can carry the load. Also, the Cubs’ bullpen has been subpar most of this year, so their recent success seems like an outlier. To me, there’s no debating as to who the better ballclub is in this matchup. We’re just getting a discount because of a) the starting pitching matchup and b) how the first two games have gone down. Let’s take advantage, big-time. 10* Boston

6* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins have taken the first two games of this series, both in dramatic fashion. After winning on a Byron Buxton homer (in the bottom of the ninth) Friday, the Twins came back from three runs down yesterday to win 4-3, again on a walkoff. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough for us as it was another one-run win and I had them on the run line (-1.5). Today we won’t be playing quite as aggressively as this is a money line play. All signs point to the home team finishing off the three-game sweep.

Up six in the win column over Cleveland in the AL Central, the Twins are in a good place right now. They did lose in walkoff fashion two straight days in Cleveland earlier this week, but now the ship seems to have been righted. Having Devin Smeltzer on the bump Sunday should continue things in the right direction. Smeltzer has a 2.86 ERA and 1.033 WHIP on the year (nine starts). At home, he’s 2-0 (four starts) with a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Baltimore is only hitting .205 its last seven games. 

Also pitching well of late is the Orioles’ starter for today, Tyler Wells. The O’s have won each of his last six starts, but Wells is charged here with silencing a more formidable lineup. As I said in yday’s analysis, FanGraphs currently has Baltimore projected for the fewest wins the rest of this season. They are doomed to again finish in the AL East basement. Psychologically, the Orioles have to be a little damaged over how the first two games of this series went. 6* Minnesota

9* Under Angels/Astros (4:10 ET): This division matchup saw the home team (Houston) come out ahead on Friday, 8-1, in a rather lopsided affair. The Angels, now 13.5 games back of the ‘Stros in the AL West, will look to even up the series on Saturday with Patrick Sandoval on the mound. Sandoval has been the team’s most reliable starter outside of Shohei Ohtani with a 2.63 ERA for the year and he’s allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. But the problem for the Halos is that they have now gone seven straight games without scoring more than four runs. I like taking Unders in divisional battles and that certainly looks like the right play here. 

Houston’s lineup hadn’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball recently; they’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last seven games. There was a bit of “cluster luck” yesterday with a six-run third inning, something I certainly don’t think we’ll see be repeated today. When Sandoval faced the Astros back in April, all he allowed was an unearned run in four innings of work. Also, the Under is 7-3-2 in Sandoval’s starts this season and none of the last three have seen more than eight totals runs scored. Houston came into this series having hit a collective .223 over the last week.

While I think they’ll certainly do a better job with run suppression this afternoon, the problem for the Angels here is obviously going to be at the plate. It doesn’t help that Astros’ pitching has been downright filthy of late. Cristian Javier struck out 14 Angels last night. It was the sixth time in seven games that the Astros allowed one or zero runs! Look for Jose Urquidy to keep the trend going as he has a 0.737 WHIP his L3 starts, all quality outings. His last time out, the only hit Urquidy allowed in 7 IP was a solo home run. That was against the Yankees. In fact, he just held two of the three highest scoring teams in baseball (Yankees & Mets) to two runs and five hits in 13 IP. 9* Under Angels/Astros

10* Washington (4:05 ET): The Nationals were dealt a 6-3 loss last night and are now just 1-9 vs. the Marlins this season, including 0-4 at home. But now is not the time to abandon ship! Yes, I lost with the Nats last night as a tough stretch for starter Josiah Gray continued. But we’re getting the home team at plus money today and in my opinion they’re worth the investment. Miami remains well below .500 for the year on the road (16-24) and yesterday marked the first time in eight games they topped four runs. 

Both starters in this game have made three previous starts. For Miami, Daniel Castano has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP. He’s not factored into any of the decisions, but the team is 2-1 in those three games as they probably should be as two of the starts were quite good. But strikeout numbers are not impressive with only 10 in 17 IP. This will also be just the second time Castano is starting on the road. The Marlins lost the first time. The bullpen, which will be called upon at some point, has a 5.13 road ERA. 

The Nats turn to Jackson Tetreault. He has higher ERA than Castano, but the exact same WHIP. The team is also 2-1 in his three starts, but Tetreault has factored into every decision. It was a rough first start (vs. Atlanta), but the last two have seen him go a total of 13 innings and give up just four runs total, three of them unearned. One advantage the Nationals have is that they’ve seen Castano previously. He’s 0-2 against them in this career with a 6.75 ERA. Miami has never faced Tetreault. 10* Washington

9* Run Line Minnesota (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the Twins -1.5. The home team opened the series with a one-run win yesterday, 3-2. Obviously, I’m looking for a bigger win today. While the Orioles had been surprisingly competitive over the last month, they’ve now lost three straight and remember that this is a club destined for last place in the AL East. FanGraphs even has them with the lowest projected win percentage for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the Twins are a team looking to win the AL Central pennant. Should be a big win Saturday afternoon. 

The Twins still have a 1.5 game lead over Cleveland in the division, but that lead was cut after B2B walkoff losses to the Guardians. Last night was Minnesota’s chance for late game theatrics as Byron Buxton walked off with a two-run HR in the bottom of the ninth. So that’s three consecutive games that have come down to the final at-bat. Considering today’s pitching matchup, I’d be shocked if that streak continues. Sonny Gray goes for the Twins and he has been red hot on the mound of late with a 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP his L3 starts. Gray has gone at least five innings while allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He tossed seven shutout innings his last time out.

Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles seems to be trending in the opposite direction and he has a 6.47 ERA and 1.541 WHIP on the road for the season. Speaking of the road, this is the O’s third consecutive series away from home and fatigue could be starting to set in. Twins’ pitching has been great recently with five or fewer hits allowed in the last six games. Baltimore has not done well against righties this year (3.9 rpg) and is batting below .220 in its last eight games overall. 9* Run Line Minnesota (-1.5)

6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have some work to do this weekend as for the first time all year, they’ve lost three in a row. They’re still in first place in the NL East, but Mets’ fans don’t want to be reminded about last season when the same thing was the case and they then ceded control of the division to the Braves, who would go on to win the World Series. Fortunately for the Metropolitans, they are at home this weekend, facing the Rangers and have what looks to be a big edge on the mound Friday. It should be a happy “Bobby Bonilla Day” in Queens. 

The Mets are 24-12 at Citi Field, which is the best home record in the National League. Now they did just drop two here to the Astros, but that’s a much better team than Rangers, who will be sending Greg Otto to the mound. Otto gave up six runs in just two innings his last start, continuing a poor year which has seen him post a 6.51 xERA and 5.51 xFIP. He also walks a lot of batters. This Mets’ lineup, which could only manage one run against the Astros and was shutout for just the second time all season on Wednesday, should bounce back here. They are tied for third in all of baseball in runs scored per game.

This also looks to be an excellent matchup for Chris Bassitt, who is already coming off three straight quality starts (with a 0.797 WHIP) and should have an even better ERA than 3.91 this season. Three of the Rangers’ last four series have been against teams rated in the bottom five in my power ratings. So this is a big step up in class and I just cannot see the Mets losing a third straight time at home for the first time all year, given the pitching matchup. Bassitt has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of 15 starts. 6* NY Mets

8* Washington (6:05 ET): In the past, I’ve stated that the Marlins are better than their record, but this is a spot for the Fish. While they did win their last game, before that it was four losses in five games and none of those saw the team score more than three runs. They are likely to struggle again here facing Nationals’ righty Josiah Gray, who is long overdue to get back in the win column. The Nats have lost each of Gray’s last three starts, but he hasn’t factored into any of the decisions. In fact, he has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP during that stretch, allowing two runs and 11 hits in 18 innings of work.

I fully expect Gray to handle the Marlins’ lineup on Friday as they are hitting just .228 on the road this season. Now we turn to the Washington offense, which did score seven runs in a loss Wednesday. That result ended a three-game win streak, but the team is still 6-3 its last nine games. They’ll see southpaw Trevor Rogers today. Rogers has been ineffective, posting a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-0 vs. Washington this season, but his TSR is 2-10 against everyone else, so I think the “third time should be the charm” for the Nationals tonight, in terms of facing Rogers.

This is also a revenge game for the home team, who was swept down in Miami last month. They are just 1-8 vs. the Marlins in ‘22, but three of the losses have been by one run and Miami has topped five runs in only three of those games. If Washington can bring the offense tonight, and I believe they will, then this should be an easy win for the home team. Gray did not allow a run in five innings the last time he faced the Marlins. 8* Washington

10* Tampa Bay (3:07 ET): The Rays lost yesterday, 4-1, but that was with a pretty significant disadvantage on the mound as they sent out an “opener” (Matt Wisler) while the Blue Jays had Yusei Kikuchi going. This afternoon, the script has been flipped as Corey Kluber will toe the rubber for the Rays opposite Jose Berrios. The latter has struggled mightily with a 6.43 xERA, second highest among all qualifiers. Meanwhile, Kluber has been pretty solid of late, giving up 3 ER or less in eight straight starts. This is a great value on TB we’re getting here.

The Rays have lost 10 of 15, but nine of those losses have come by one run. Speaking of one-run games, Toronto has a MLB-best 18 one-run victories, which is part of the reason they currently find themselves in second in the loaded AL East. But there’s really not a ton of difference between these two teams, only that the Blue Jays have been able to win a few more close ones. 

Berrios has a 6-0 team start record at home, but that’s pretty much the lone positive about his season. His ERA should be even higher and sure enough regression has begun to set in, as the L3 starts from Berrios have seen him post an 11.19 ERA. He’s allowed 14 runs in his L2 starts, which have seen him last just 6 ⅔ innings. Berrios is also giving up plenty of home runs, seven over his last three starts. Kluber has allowed only nine homers all season. In five career starts vs. Tampa Bay, Berrios is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA. Kluber is better and the Rays also have the edge in the bullpen. 10* Tampa Bay

10* NY Yankees (6:10 ET): The Yankees were very fortunate to sweep the A’s as they trailed by three runs (early) in two of the games and were outhit in the other. But the bottom line is the team wearing Pinstripes is now a MLB-best 56-20 and this is a great price on them as they open up a weekend series in Houston. Now, I’ll concede that going from facing the team with the worst record in baseball (at home) to facing the AL West leaders is a step up in class. But this year, the Yanks are really in a class of their own. They have a +151 run differential. Houston, who is the AL’s second best team, has a +72 run differential. 

These teams just met last weekend in the Bronx and they ended up each winning twice in the four-game series. Luis Severino will start tonight’s opener for NY. He was unsuccessful last weekend against the Astros, but did hold them to just three runs and five hits over six innings. The problem is that Justin Verlander was simply better (Astros won 3-1). But this time Severino will be opposed by Luis Garcia, whose ERA leaves a bit to be desired. While Garcia has posted B2B victories, he didn’t face the Yankees last weekend and was 0-4 with a 4.44 ERA his five starts before that. 

Severino is due for a win here as he has just one in his last six starts despite a 3.13 ERA during that span. Over the L7 starts, his ERA is 2.91 and his WHIP is 0.90 with five quality starts. The Yankees have been dominant in the month of June, winning 22 of 27 games and they are also 38-12 in night games this season. The Astros did just take two from the Mets and allowed only one run in the process. But they’ve also been held to three runs or fewer in four of the last five games (three of those vs. the Yankees). Note that Yordan Alvarez was carted off the field yesterday after a scary collision with shortstop Jeremy Pena. Both are being evaluated for concussions and thus may not be available. 10* NY Yankees

9* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The Twins thought they had another win over the Guardians last night when they struck for three runs in the top half of the 10th. But the home team had other ideas, scoring four of their own in the bottom half of that inning and winning in walkoff fashion via a Josh Naylor home run. That dramatic victory puts the Guardians just two games back of the Twins in the AL Central and they actually have one fewer loss on the season. But I look at Minnesota’s superior run differential (+45 vs. +12) and what Chris Archer, their starter for Thursday, has done recently. This is a great value on the road team. 

Over his last three starts, Archer has a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP. He tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball against Colorado last week. Though he’s predominantly been going just four or five innings per start, Archer simply has not been giving up many runs. He’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Something to note is that going into yesterday’s game, Twins’ pitching had been nothing short of phenomenal over the last week. They’d allowed just eight runs in seven games with three shutouts. This will actually be the first time the Guardians are facing Archer this season. 

Shane Bieber isn’t what he once was for Cleveland. He’s been getting hit hard and his strikeout rate is down. As a result, you’re looking at someone that has allowed one HR in three consecutive outings. Though he’s allowed three runs or less each of his last eight starts, Bieber has a 4.23 ERA at home. Cleveland had not topped three runs in a game since 6/22, that was until the bottom of the 10 last night. They scored only 12 runs the previous seven games. 9* Minnesota 

7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): This is the first game I gravitated towards today. I did so for a variety of reasons, chief among them my belief the White Sox are a team that ought to have a worse record. Favored to win the AL Central coming into the season, the Southsiders have been outscored by 45 runs in their 73 games. All things considered, they should feel fortunate to even be within three games of .500. While the White Sox won 11-4 last night (after falling behind 3-0 early), remember that the home team came out ahead 4-3 in Monday’s opener when I took them. Back on the Angels’ bandwagon tonight.

Another reason I like the Halos in this matchup is that they’ll have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Not only has Ohtani won three consecutive starts coming into this game, but he’s done so by allowing just one and nine hits total. That’s in 21 innings pitched. His last time out, I played Ohtani and the Angels and the Japanese superstar dazzled by striking out 13 Royals over eight shutout innings. That came the day after Ohtani had eight RBIs in a game. I know the White Sox had 17 hits in yesterday’s game, but this is a team that had scored a total of just 10 runs in its previous five games - combined. Ohtani should dominate. 

Michael Kopech will be starting opposite Ohtani here. He’s off B2B losses, the last one coming at home to Baltimore. In addition to the likelihood of Kopech not getting much run support here, you’ve got to consider the fact the team’s win percentage as a road underdog of +125 to +175 is only .333 the last three seasons (including 4-8 so far in ‘22). Meanwhile, the Angels are 20-9 the L29 times they’ve been a home favorite of -175 or higher. The odds certainly tell the story here and Chicago is also just 6-23 its last 29 games out in LA. Look for the home team to bounce back behind Ohtani. 7* LA Angels

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I went with the Braves in Tuesday’s series opener and that worked out as they won 5-3. Though the road team never trailed last night, they did need to score twice late (once in the eighth, once in the ninth) to come out ahead. I view this as a pretty even matchup and that’s why I was willing to go with Atlanta at “plus money” yesterday. The same thing now applies to going with Philly tonight and honestly they’re an even better value than the Braves were yesterday, being that they’re at home.

Further playing into the notion of this being an even matchup, both of tonight’s starters have 9-5 team start records. Atlanta’s Kyle Wright has a slightly lower ERA and WHIP compared to Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez, but recently Suarez has Wright beat. Wright has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 21 hits in 11 ⅓ innings. His offense saved him last time out in what was an eventual 7-6 win over the Giants. Meanwhile, Suarez is off a quality start where he went 7 ⅓ innings and allowed just two runs. The Phillies got the win 6-2 as an underdog at San Diego. Wright is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Phillies.

Atlanta is now 20-5 in June following last night’s win, but Philly isn’t far behind at 18-7. Being without Bryce Harper is a big blow, but the Phillies did score eight runs in a win without him on Sunday. I think they’ll find the necessary offense against Wright, whose number they’ve had in the past (as I mentioned earlier). The Braves are actually still sub-.500 off a win this season, which is pretty shocking given how this month has gone. The Phillies are still 8-3 L11 home games and 12-3 L15 overall when facing a right-handed starter. They are 5-2 off their previous seven losses as well. 10* Philadelphia

9* Arizona (3:40 ET): The host Diamondbacks stunned the Padres last night, rallying back from a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6. That was good for me as the D’backs were a 10* play! The win also snapped a six-game losing skid to San Diego where last week Arizona got swept. I think it’s going to be a bit of a different story here at Chase Field this week as the D’backs now look to make it two straight wins over their NL West rivals. The road team has now lost three straight and four of five. The lone win for SD in the last five games came by a score of 1-0.

Now it will be the unbeaten Mike Clevinger toeing the rubber today for SD. He’s got a 5-0 team start record thus far, but has only recorded one decision himself. Clevinger does have a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but something to keep in mind is that he’s yet to pitch beyond the fifth inning. He’s gone a full five just one time. As we saw yesterday, the Padres’ bullpen is far from “reliable.” Arizona has now scored a total of 18 runs the last two games, so they’ve got some confidence at the plate. The Padres are also just 7-17 their last 24 games at Chase Field. 

Veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner has yet to defeat SD as a member of the Diamondbacks, but look for that to change today. MadBum has pitched better than his record (3-7), although he struggled last time out against the Padres (started opposite Clevinger in that one too). But before that last start, Bumgarner had allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of 14 starts. The San Diego offense is still without Manny Machado, a big loss. In the last 11 games, the Padres have scored more than four runs only three times. Once again, I like Arizona at this price. 9* Arizona

7* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners got embarrassed in last night’s series opener, losing 9-2 to the Orioles. Despite seemingly being doomed to last place in the AL East, Baltimore has played surprisingly well of late (won five of six) and is now just five games below .500. I’ve previously gone through how Seattle was destined to regress this season after finishing 2021 with 90 wins, despite a very poor run differential. But today marks a rare endorsement of the M’s as starter Robbie Ray has been quite solid and the team should be very motivated after last night’s loss. 

Ray has been dominant over his last three starts, allowing just two runs on 10 hits (total!) in 20 innings of work. He also has 20 strikeouts against just four walks during that time. When pitching at home, Ray has a 2.84 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. The team has won his last two trips to the mound, both division games, against Oakland and the Angels. It should be noted that when these teams squared off almost a month ago, Seattle took the series opener 10-0, as the road team. Baltimore then immediately bounced back with a 9-2 win of its own. Now, with the roles reversed, I anticipate the same thing to happen here.

Seattle managed only three hits in yesterday’s game and now has several players suspended as a result of Sunday’s brawl with the Angels. They’ll face Dean Kremer on Tuesday. Kremer has pitched every bit as well as Ray has recently, but does have a higher WHIP. Kremer has also made just four starts all season while Ray is at 13. Orioles’ pitching has been shockingly good of late, but I just cannot see Kremer winning a fourth straight start as an underdog. The O’s are just 14-21 off a win this year. 7* Seattle 

9* Run Line San Francisco (9:45 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants at -1.5. SF just dropped two of three here at home over the weekend to Cincinnati. Already in third place in the NL West, last year’s division champs can ill-afford another subpar series against a bottom-feeder. While the Tigers are technically NOT a last place team, they are certainly bottom five in my own personal power ratings. Looking at who’s on the mound for Tuesday’s opener, there’s a clear advantage to the home team in this one. Look for the Giants to win by at least two runs here. 

Carlos Rodon has been lights out for SF over his last three starts. He’s posted a 0.43 ERA and 0.619 WHIP during that stretch, allowing only one run on seven hits in 21 innings. He has a 26-6 KW ratio. Each start has seen him go at least six innings and allow three hits or less. Making the stretch even more impressive is the fact Rodon faced the Dodgers and Braves, the two NLCS teams from last season. As a member of the White Sox, Rodon faced the Tigers three times last season. He allowed only four runs in 16 innings and picked up a pair of wins, one seeing him allow just a hit in 7 IP and the other seeing him strikeout 12 in six innings. 

Rodon will be opposed by Tarik Skubal, whose recent results couldn’t be more different. Skubal has a 9.88 ERA and 2.048 WHIP in his L3 starts, all losses. Both Rodon and Skubal have 14 starts under their belts this year. Shockingly, Skubal has a 7-7 TSR while Rodon is just 6-8. That doesn’t seem fair. Detroit, even after taking two of three out in Arizona over the weekend, still has the run differential (-97) of a 23-win team. They are 28-44, so really the overall record should be even worse. The Giants are 14-7 in games vs. LH starters, the Tigers are just 7-13. 9* Run Line San Francisco (-1.5)

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This is a big time revenge spot for the Diamondbacks, who have lost six straight times to the Padres including all three games out in SD last week. We’ve got an immediate pitching rematch from one of those three games as Sean Manaea takes on Zac Gallen tonight. Though Manaea and the Padres came out ahead 3-2 last week, my belief is that Gallen is the better starter in this matchup. He’s got better overall numbers and, in fact, last week saw the two starters finish in a near “dead heat,” both going six innings and allowing just two runs. Gallen allowed one more hit, but also had 11 strikeouts (compared to Manaea’s six). I look for the D’backs to get some revenge on Tuesday. 

This one taking place at Chase Field certainly seems to favor Gallen as he’s yet to lose a decision at home this season and has a 2.57 ERA and 0.833 WHIP here. Gallen has also allowed two runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts this season. San Diego has been more effective on the road when it comes to scoring runs, but is also only averaging 3.9 rpg its last seven while batting a collective .215 and now doesn’t have Manny Machado (injured) in the lineup. Overall, Arizona is 8-5 in games started by Gallen this year. 

Manaea has a history of pitching well against the D’backs, but let’s note the fact he’s allowed three home runs in his last two starts and gave up five runs to the Cubs on 6/14 (in just four innings of work). I don’t see him beating Gallen twice in a row, especially with the Padres’ offense having cooled off considerably. In two of Manaea’s last three starts, SD scored double digit runs. But they now have finished with seven or fewer hits in six of the last seven games (just nine total hits L2 games). 10* Arizona

9* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves and Phillies have been two of the hottest teams in baseball this month and now face off in a three-game series to conclude June. Atlanta is 19-5 its last 24 games while Philly is 18-6, but it’s a three-game difference in the division with the Braves in second and the Phils in third. Last time these two NL East rivals faced off, they ended up splitting a four-game series down in Atlanta. That was last month. I like the Braves to win Tuesday as I like them at plus money as the better overall ballclub. 

Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season. Yet the team is only 7-6 in his 13 starts. They lost the last one, 4-2 at Texas, which was surprising. Not only is Atlanta 9-2 in its last 11 road games, but they’ve won six of seven when opposing a right-handed starter. They’ve won five of their last seven series openers and are 44-17 their last 61 games following a loss, important to note here after letting one slip away vs. the Dodgers Sunday night. 

Charlie Morton has not dropped a decision for the Braves over his L9 starts. Sadly, he’s got just three wins to show for it though. But key for Morton here is the Phillies don’t have Bryce Harper in the lineup (injured) and they’ve already been struggling a bit against righties. The Phils’ batting order has also been pretty “top-heavy” so losing Harper is significant. Morton has a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts as he’s allowed just 11 hits and has 32 strikeouts in 20 innings (issued just one walk). 9* Atlanta

8* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The two starters for Monday’s series opener - Lucas Giolito for the White Sox and Noah Syndergaard for the Angels - both have 0-3 team start records over their last three starts, respectively. In fact, Syndergaard has an 0-4 TSR in his L4 starts as the Angels have scored a total of just three runs. However, I don’t think that anyone could argue that Syndergaard hasn’t been the better starter of the two, recently or this season. While Syndergaard is coming off one of his worst outings of the year (in terms of number of runs allowed), Giolito is off back to back awful showings (where he’s allowed 15 runs in 10 IP). 

Maybe a case could be made that Syndergaard was left out there for one inning too many in that last start. He’d allowed just three runs (on six hits) going into the 8th inning against the Royals last Monday. But then he gave up a two-run HR to put the game out of reach for his team. Still though, that’s one of only three outings this year where Syndergaard allowed more than three runs. He still has a 3.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and both of those numbers are even better at home. Now compare that to Giolito, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.563 WHIP this season after allowing 4+ runs in each of his L5 starts. 

Given what I’ve been saying about the White Sox most of this year, perhaps I got “what I deserved” yesterday when I made them my 10* Game of the Week as a run line play (-1.5) against the Orioles. They got the win, but only 4-3 after the bullpen allowed two runs to score in the ninth. This is a team that’s been outscored by 51 runs this season and simply hasn’t lived up to advanced billing as the favorite to win the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Angels have a slightly worse record than the White Sox, but a MUCH better run differential (+7) and are off a win on Sunday. The White Sox are also really banged up right now. All things considered, the home team looks like the “smart” play today. 8* LA Angels

9* Under Dodgers/Braves (7:05 ET): This rematch of last year’s NLCS has seen each team win a game thus far. The Dodgers took Friday’s series opener 4-1 while the Braves bounced back with a 5-3 victory last night. Don’t expect many runs to be scored in tonight’s rematch (on ESPN). That’s because the Dodgers will send out Tony Gonsolin, who is 9-0 (10-3 TSR) with a 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s a major reason why the team leads the National League in run prevention this season (just 2.9 rpg allowed on the road). 

Now LA’s offense hasn’t done all that much so far in the series, scoring just seven runs in two games. Tonight they’ll face Spencer Strider, who has pitched much better than his 5.40 ERA would seem to indicate. Over his L3 starts, Strider has a 0.999 WHIP. He struggled his last time out, giving up six runs (on six hits) in just 3 ⅔ innings. But prior to that subpar outing, Strider turned in a three-start stretch where he allowed just three runs over 15 ⅓ IP. He had an 11-strikeout game vs. Washington on 6/15. 

The Braves have of course had a ridiculous June, going 18-4 overall this month. Last night marked the 14th time in those 22 games that they allowed three runs or less. Yet they’ve still allowed 70 more runs than the Dodgers have this season, which just goes to show how stingy the NL West leaders are. The Dodgers are still the class of the Senior Circuit in my view (#2 in the overall power rankings behind the Yankees). They allow, by far, the fewest number of runs per game on the road. Both bullpens are solid. 9* Under Dodgers/Braves

7* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Phillies have had a great month (17-6) but are still well behind the Padres (6.5 games) in the NL Wild Card race, even after taking two of the first three games in this series. The key for today’s finale is that San Diego will have Yu Darvish on the mound and he’s not only been filthy of late overall (0.82 ERA, 0.591 WHIP L3 starts), but all season here at home (1.34 ERA, 0.645 WHIP in six starts). The Phillies’ offense has certainly been regressing over the last week or so (scored four runs or less in six of the last seven games) and I don’t think their starter for Sunday (Kyle Gibson) is capable of out-dueling Darvish in this spot. 

Darvish has had three subpar outings this season where he allowed five or more runs. All were on the road. He’s allowed no more than 3 ER in any of the other 10 starts. Last time out, Darvish went seven innings against Arizona and allowed just one run on four hits. In his last 22 IP, he’s allowed just 11 hits and two walks. Something else to consider is that, as a team, the Padres haven’t been giving up many runs at home this year. They allow just 3.3 per game with visitors at Petco Park hitting only .205. Only the Yankees and Astros are allowing fewer runs at home this season. 

Gibson has a 5.40 ERA and and 1.567 WHIP on the road this season where he’s yet to win a single decision in six tries. Gibson’s last start came on the road (at Texas) and there he gave up a pair of home runs as the Phils lost 7-0 to the Rangers. Earlier in the season (May 19th), Gibson faced off with Darvish (in Philly) and came out on the losing end of a 2-0 decision. Darvish went seven innings  As a home favorite of -125 to -175, the Padres have won 67% of the time over the last three seasons. 7* San Diego

10* Run Line Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the White Sox at -1.5. This play may come as a tad bit of a surprise, given my overall outlook on the White Sox. At least based on their run differential, currently -52, the team should have a worse won-loss record. They are one of just three times in all of MLB to have exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation by more than three games. But today the White Sox are facing the prospect of getting swept at home, in a four-game series, by Baltimore. I just don’t see that happening. Lay the -1.5. 

The main reason I like the White Sox on Sunday is that they have Dylan Cease starting. The team is 10-4 this season with him on the mound and he’s been one of the better pitchers in the American League thus far. Over his last five starts, Cease hasn’t allowed a single earned run (!), although that’s a tad bit misleading as he gave up six unearned runs when he faced the Dodgers on June 9th. But that’s been the exception, not the rule, as Cease has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 outings. I know that the team has lost four in a row and has a lengthy injury list, but getting swept at home in a four-game series just isn’t very common. Cease is the difference maker. 

Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty rare and especially when the visiting team is someone like Baltimore, who is doomed to another last place finish this year in the AL East. FanGraphs has the Orioles projected to win just 34 more games the rest of the season, tied with Oakland for fewest in all of MLB. Jordan Lyles gets the starting nod for Sunday and just doesn’t seem capable of matching Cease. Lyles has struggled on the road all season (6.80 ERA, 1.632 WHIP) and the team is just 1-4 his L5 starts overall. 10* Run line Chi White Sox (-1.5)

7* Arizona (10:10 ET): I’m quite willing to fade Detroit, a terrible team, off a win. The Tigers came here to Arizona and won Friday, by a score of 5-1, Only two teams have worse YTD run differentials (Oakland and Washington) and the Tigers are dead last offensively (2.9 runs per game). While they have been able to string together B2B wins three times in June, can’t see that happening here as they average only 2.5 runs per game on the road. Look for the host D’backs to bounce back on Saturday.

Now Arizona has lost four straight as they were swept in their last series, by San Diego. Managing only three hits last night was also not encouraging, but keep in mind it was an even game, save for Javy Baez’ grand slam in the third inning, which proved to be the difference. Detroit is unlikely to have one swing of the bat be that crucial tonight and the last home start from Zach Davies saw him give the D’backs seven shutout innings. Davies has gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts. 

Arizona has been in a bit of a slump offensively, but I think they’ll break out here against Alex Faedo, who has an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP his L3 starts. Faedo was seemingly off to a decent start to his rookie campaign, but has only gone a full six innings once and has just one win in nine starts. 7* Arizona

7* Kansas City (4:10 ET): The Royals aren’t going anywhere this season, but they certainly seem to have the A’s number this season (3-1 head to head) including a 3-1 victory in last night’s series opener. Oakland is one of the few teams below KC in my power ratings. I took a flier on them last night (+1.5) based on the fact they (seemingly) had the edge on the mound. That’s not the case here with Jared Koenig (6.58 ERA, 1.756 WHIP) opposing Brad Keller. Look for the Royals to win again on Saturday. 

Oakland is having an absolutely atrocious month. They’ve gone 3-17 the L20 games and are basically a lock at this point to finish last in the American League West. Incredibly, the offense has scored two runs or less in 8 of the last 10 games, never scoring more than four. They’ve scored just four runs total in the last four games and yesterday was the fifth time in seven games they were held to one run or less. Keller not only beat the A’s in his last start, but held them to just one hit over seven scoreless innings. 

Koenig’s two road starts have been disasters as he’s given up 10 runs in 8 IP. When he faced the Royals at home last week, he stepped up with 5 ⅔ scoreless frames of his own and the A’s actually got the 4-0 win. But the chances of Koenig beating the same opponent twice in row seem slim. Kansas City’s offense might not seem that reliable, but they actually have been hitting lefties pretty well at home this month and Koenig is a southpaw. Remember that it only took three runs to get the win last night and the Royals should certainly score more today. You can’t count on Oakland to score much at all. 7* Kansas City

6* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): It was a little harder than anticipated for the Rays last night, but they still got the win, 4-3 over the Pirates. I anticipate this being a winning weekend for the home team. The Pirates are terrible (tied for third worst run differential) and are now coming off back to back extra inning games. While they’ve won four of six overall, three of those wins were against the Cubs. The Bucs have surpassed their win expectancy by five games, tied for most in the league. There’s a reason TB is such a big favorite in this one. 

The Rays have had mixed results here in June, but it should be pointed out that each of their last eight losses were by two runs or fewer and six of those came by exactly one run. So last night was a welcome reprieve. Corey Kluber gets the baseball Saturday and having allowed 3 ER or less in each of last five starts, he should easily handle this putrid Pirates lineup which is 28th in all of baseball in runs scored. On the road, Pittsburgh averages just 3.2 runs per game while batting a collective .214. 

Visitors average just 3.6 rpg with a .218 average here at Tropicana Field. So there’s a lot of pressure on Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker here. Brubaker did pitch quite well his last time out, but it was his first win of the season (in 14 starts!) and the team is 2-6 when he starts on the road. This is a place where - until yesterday - Pittsburgh hadn’t played since 2014. I just feel that the Rays are due to break out and their 8-1 record vs. National League teams this season makes them all the more appealing. 6* Tampa Bay

7* Run Line Houston (1:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Astros +1.5. The Astros won last night, 3-1, as a slight underdog. That was after they should have won Thursday’s opener. They led that game 6-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth, when Aaron Judge was able to win it for the Pinstripes. Houston finished with an 11-6 edge in hits, however. Yes, this is the feared Yankees we’re fading (at home), but it’s a tremendous value on the Astros, who are the second best team in the American League and would have cashed on the RL both games in the series. Take the +1.5. 

Don’t be fooled by Cristian Javier’s 5-4 TSR or seemingly mediocre ERA & WHIP. Javier has allowed 2 ER or less in seven of nine starts this season and has an xBA (expected batting average allowed) of .204. The Yankees have only 11 hits in this series so far and actually haven’t topped seven hits in any of their last five games. With Javier on the mound, the Astros are absolutely capable of being the first team to hand the Yanks B2B losses this month. 

Houston is also 24-15 on the road this season and 16-8 in day games. They’ll face Gerrit Cole on Saturday. Cole is a tough matchup and was spectacular his last time out. But he’s going against a tough lineup here. Cole has been roughed up a couple of times in 2022, including when he gave up seven runs in just 2 ⅓ innings to the Twins earlier this month. Another thing that must be considered is the Astros have the edge in the bullpen in this matchup. All things considered, having an extra 1.5 runs “in our back pocket” is the right way to play this matchup. 7* Run Line Houston (+1.5)

8* Philadelphia (9:40 ET): San Diego was probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming into last night’s series opener with the Phillies. After all, the Padres had just swept the D’backs here at home earlier in the week and are neck and neck with the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. But they were beaten on Thursday, 6-2, and now have to go up against Aaron Nola, who has been one the best pitchers in all of baseball over the last month. Because of the big edge in starting pitching here, I’m backing the Phillies as they should continue what has been a tremendous June (16-5 overall). 

Nola has been red hot. Over his L5 starts, he has a 5-0 team start record and has allowed only eight runs total in 37 ⅓ IP. What’s even more impressive about that is five of those eight runs surrendered came in one game. The other four starts have seen him go 31 ⅓ innings and give up only three runs total! Last time out, it was eight shutout innings at Washington. Nola has a 0.78 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his L3 starts and is facing a San Diego lineup that is hitting just .228 at home (only 3.9 rpg) and now without Manny Machado. 

The Phillies beat Joe Musgrove last night, becoming the first team to do so in 2022. They should have a much easier time against Mackenzie Gore this evening. Gore has a 10.22 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts, just brutal numbers, and he’s allowed 14 runs in his last 6 ⅓ innings of work. Now he did just have to pitch at Coors Field in his last start where he allowed three home runs. But I don’t think he’ll be able to slow down a Phillies lineup that is averaging 5.2 rpg on the road this year. I absolutely love Nola in this price range. 8* Philadelphia

7* Run Line Oakland (8:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the A’s +1.5. I know that Oakland has played some hideous baseball in June (3-16!) and was just swept at home by Seattle. But Kansas City should never be this high of a ML favorite, even if they did just take two of three from the A’s last week. The Royals being in this price range opens up a play on the RL, which looks great to me as not only are the A’s a shocking 4-0 this season on the road when the ML is +125 to -125, but they’ve got (by far) the better starting pitcher going Friday. KC has also lost three of the four games where they’ve been ML favorites of -125 to -175 this year. Take the +1.5 to be safe.

It will be Cole Irvin on the mound here for the visitors. While an 0-7 TSR over his L7 starts is certainly concerning, be aware that Irvin’s ERA over that stretch is actually 2.83! Twice this month, the A’s have lost by a single run with Irvin on the mound. We’d take that result here. Irvin pitched very well against the Royals last weekend, holding them to one run and three hits over 6 ⅓ innings. Unfortunately, he got no support in a 2-0 final. Still, it seems we can count on Irvin holding up “his end of the bargain” as he’s now allowed 2 ER or less in eight of his previous nine outings.

Zack Greinke is the starter tonight for the Royals. This will be his first time back on the mound in nearly a month. He’s 0-4 in 10 starts this year, so it’s not been a good season, especially when you look at his 5.05 ERA and 1.354 WHIP. Consider that Irvin has allowed a total of 17 runs in his L9 starts while Greinke has allowed 12 in just the last two. Oakland should have won yesterday’s game as Frankie Montas took a no-hitter into the eighth. Seattle ended up scoring both of its runs on wild pitches (brutal!). Kansas City had just two hits in its last game as it was shutout for the 10th time this season and second time in the last four games. 7* Run Line Oakland (+1.5)

10* Miami (6:40 ET): I’ve been playing the Marlins fairly regularly of late. After cashing them each of the first two games in their most recent series (vs. Colorado), I “took the day off” (of playing them) yesterday. They won anyway, 3-2, to finish off a three-game sweep. I’ve now successfully cashed this team three times in a row, going back to Sunday’s 6-2 win (as an underdog) over the Mets. That was the last start of Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara, who’s back on the mound Friday, facing the Mets yet again. I’m going to keep riding this Marlins ballclub, knowing they are better than their 32-36 record (+18 run diff). 

Alcantara has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Going 7-2 in his 14 starts, he has a 1.72 ERA and 0.956 WHIP. Among pitchers with double digit starts, only the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin has a lower ERA. Alcantara’s WHIP is top 10 in baseball. When he last faced the Mets, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on six hits. There’s been only one start all season that Alcantara gave up more than 2 ER. He’s also gone at least seven innings in all four starts here in June. The Mets have not been hitting righties particularly well this month, an obvious concern when going up against one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. 

Starting opposite Alcantara will be Taijuan Walker, who is also having a good 2022. But Walker is not on the same level as Alcantara and is probably due to regress considering his xERA is more than a full point higher than his actual ERA. I know that it’s rare for the Mets to be coming in off B2B losses (just the 6th time all year) and they’ve yet to lose three in a row at any point in 2022. But they’re just 21-16 on the road (compared to 24-10 at home) and probably due to still regress some more, considering their perfect 5-0 record in extra inning games. Plus, Miami is hot right now. 10* Miami

9* Over Orioles/White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox have won six of nine, but just can’t seem to get above .500. They lost yesterday, 9-5 to the Blue Jays, ending what was a high-scoring series (all three games went Over). Chicago took the first two games of that series to get back to .500. But mind you, their YTD run differential (now -41) says they are lucky to even be “sniffing” .500. Their opponents this weekend, Baltimore, are a team everyone expected to finish in last place (again) in the AL East and that is where they currently reside. The underachieving White Sox probably feel pretty good about their chances in this game, but I think the better bet is on the total.

The Orioles have seen three straight games stay Under the total. They just exchanged a pair of shutouts in the last series, which was against Washington, another last place ballclub. Wednesday, it was the O’s turn to blank the Nats as they won 7-0. Over the L5 games, Baltimore pitching has allowed three runs or less four times. There have been two shutouts and another game where they won 2-1. One of the shutouts was started by Dean Kremer, who gets the baseball again tonight. It was last Friday that Kremer tossed six shutout innings against the Rays. In three starts this year, he now has a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. 

But I don’t see Kremer holding down this White Sox offense, which has begun to round into form. Over the L10 games, Chicago has scored five or more runs eight times. They had 41 hits in the three games vs. Toronto. But on the flip side, the White Sox do allow 5.9 runs per game at home, the most in all of baseball. I’m not buying Johnny Cueto, who gets the starting nod Thursday and has a 2.63 ERA. Cueto hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.00 for a full season since 2018 and he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. He has an 8.00 ERA in three previous starts vs. Baltimore, who easily could have scored more than seven runs yesterday (as the game was shortened to six innings because of rain). 9* Over Orioles/White Sox

10* Under Cubs/Pirates (12:35 ET): These are two of the worst teams in baseball and all three games in the series have been blowouts. Pittsburgh won the first two, 12-1 and 7-1, while the Cubs struck back yesterday for a 14-5 victory. Perhaps the Cubs winning on Wednesday should have been expected considering Pittsburgh found itself on a season-high three-game win streak. Them scoring five runs last night was also a bit misleading as they put four “meaningless” ones on the board in the bottom of the ninth and finished the game with just five hits. The Cubs also scored four times in the ninth. I think we’ll see a much lower-scoring game Thursday afternoon in the series finale. 

Justin Steele will start this one for the Cubbies. He has a 1.89 ERA in his L3 starts. While Steele’s numbers on the road aren’t all that great, it’s a small sample size with only four of his 13 starts this year coming away from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. Steele also has had just one “bad” start in 2022 (where he gave up seven runs to Cincinnati). Other than that, he’s not allowed more than 3 ER in ANY start. Over those last three starts, he’s limited the Cardinals, Padres and Braves to just five total runs in 19 IP. Surely then, he can handle a Pirates’ lineup which comes into today 28th in baseball (third worst) in runs per game. 

Steele should limit the amount of runs scored by the home team, but what kind of support should he expect? Probably not much. While the Cubs scored 14 runs yesterday, they did so on 13 hits and got a grand slam. Previous to yesterday’s win, the Cubs had scored one run or less in four of five games. They’ll face Jose Quintana on Thursday. Quintana has a solid 3.18 ERA in eight home starts this year. The home run has been a problem for Quintana in the L2 starts (allowed five of them), but that seems like an aberration given the fact he had allowed just TWO HR’s prior to that all season. This will be his third time facing the Cubs in 2022; he’s allowed just three runs in 10 innings so far. 10* Under Cubs/Pirates

7* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves will look to win this four-game series on Thursday after coming from behind to get the 4-3 victory last night. They also won the series opener in one-run fashion, 2-1, while the Giants won the second game, in wild fashion (12-10). Both Braves’ wins in this series have been in walk-off fashion with Adam Duvall’s single last night capping a three-run rally in the ninth. There is no denying the fact that Atlanta is a “hot team” right now as they’ve gone 17-3 in the month of June to pull within 4.5 games of the Mets in the NL East and also put themselves in Wild Card position. I’m betting the Braves will win again today. 

As I’ve mentioned before, the Giants were historically profitable last year, making 45.8 units. That signaled (to me) that regression was forthcoming for the 2022 campaign and sure enough SF is just below the break even point at the betting window this season. They are also in Wild Card contention, one game behind the Braves. When you look at Thursday’s matchup, an obvious advantage for the home team may not be that apparent. However, the Giants are just 1-5 their last six games as a road underdog and have scored three runs or less in five of the last seven games overall. 

Kyle Wright will go here for Atlanta. Though he did struggle his last time out, giving up a season-high 11 hits, I expect Wright will bounce back in this spot. Prior to that last outing, he’d allowed 3 ER or less in every start but one this season. He has a 2.94 ERA this year and 0.947 WHIP at home. The Atlanta bullpen has also been solid. Alex Wood starts for SF and his numbers are higher than Wright’s, across the board. While the Giants are 3-0 in Wood’s last three starts, those wins came at the expense of the Rockies, Royals and Pirates, three of the bottom eight teams in baseball. Now Wood is up against a team that’s 9-1 in its L10 home games. 7* Atlanta

10* Run Line LA Angels (9:49 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the Angels -1.5. Thanks mostly to Shohei Ohtani, the Angels fought their way back from an early deficit last night. But it was not to be as they fell again, this time 12-11 in 11 innings, their 21st loss in the last 27 games. Dropping two in a row to the lowly Royals, at home no less, is really unacceptable. Tonight, the Angels will have Ohtani on the mound, so he has the chance to give them even more than the two homers and eight RBI’s he did last night. I’ve had success playing the RL all month long and am confident here that the home team wins by at least two runs.

The Angels are just 5-6 in Ohtani starts this year, but that’s misleading. He has a 3.28 ERA and 1.094 WHIP, numbers that get even better here at home. In his last start, Ohtani threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball and got the win over the Mariners, 4-1. LA took four of five games in that series, which makes the results of the L2 days all the more perplexing. The Royals are just 25-42 and easily one of the five worst teams in baseball. They’d been just 7-14 off a win coming into yesterday. They have only three three-game win streaks all season and one was back in April. A good time to fade them, this is. 

The Royals used nine different pitchers in last night’s game, so that’s a lot of pressure on tonight’s starter Daniel Lynch. Lynch did get the win his last time out by allowing just one run over five innings against Oakland. But he has a 5.19 ERA and 1.525 WHIP for the season. He’d allowed four or more runs in four of five starts prior to getting the win over Oakland, who is the only team in the AL with a worse record than KC. Not only has the Royals’ starting pitching generally been ineffective this year (no starter has an ERA below 4.30), but as you saw last night, the bullpen is also bad (4.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). I just cannot see the Angels getting swept here; a multi-run win is likely. 10* Run Line LA Angels (-1.5)

6* Miami (6:40 ET): No reason to jump off the Marlins as everything I said about this matchup yesterday is still true today. Miami ended up winning Tuesday’s opener with the Rockies 9-8. While it took a go-ahead double in the bottom of the eighth, it was a game the Marlins had taken a three-run lead in the fifth after falling behind 3-0 early. As was discussed in yday’s analysis, the Marlins are better than their record. They have a +14 run differential (despite being six games below .500). The last two times I’ve taken them, they’ve won (including as an underdog Sunday vs. the Mets). Also remember that the Rockies are much worse on the road (11-19 this season, 51-89 L3 seasons).

Furthermore, the Rockies are being outscored by more than two full runs per game this year outside of Coors Field. That’s very bad. It’s very rare to see them score eight runs on the road (like they did yesterday) as they came into this series with the lowest scoring average (on the road) in the entire NL. Miami has now won four straight at home and scored at least nine runs each of the last three games vs. Colorado pitching. Today they’ll see Chad Kuhl, whose 1.892 WHIP over his L3 starts leaves a lot to be desired. 

Kuhl is also winless (0-4) in six career starts vs. Miami with a 4.50 ERA. He will face Pablo Lopez, a right-hander that had a sensational April (3-0, 0.39 ERA) for the Marlins, but has since seen wins be few and far between. Lopez turned in a 2.78 ERA in six May start, but it’s been June where he’s struggled, posting a 6.48 ERA in three outings. But still, he has a 0.971 WHIP at home this season and is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA lifetime vs. the Rockies. Typically, Lopez has always pitched better at home than on the road, which is good because he actually held the Rockies scoreless for six innings at Coors Field back on May 30th. 6* Miami

8* Houston (2:10 ET): On paper, this is seemingly a pretty even matchup between two division leaders. The Astros took yesterday’s season opener though, 8-2, and they came in with the advantage of having Monday off (while the Mets were wrapping up a series vs. Miami). Another edge for the AL contingent was that the Mets were using Trevor Williams in a spot start. He lasted only four innings and when he left the Mets were in a 3-0 hole. That only grew. Houston got six solid innings from its starter Jose Urquidy and its bullpen is in much better shape right now. I know that the Mets haven’t lost many series this season, but they are poised to be swept in this brief, two-game one. 

Today’s starting pitching matchup is Carlos Carrasco vs. Jose Urquidy. Again, that seems even on paper. But the Astros have done a much better job hitting righties this month and that gives them the advantage this afternoon. While Garcia had been 0-4 (with a 4.44 ERA) his previous five starts, he did win his last time out for Dusty Baker, going six innings and allowing only four hits. Garcia’s WHIP over his L3 starts is only 0.923. Getting back to what I mentioned earlier, the Mets are just 1-6 in their L7 road games vs. RHP. 

Carrasco may be 7-1 over his L9 starts for the Mets, but he’s got a 5.00 ERA over the last three and will be facing a tough lineup here today. The Astros have averaged six runs over their last seven games and have a “deeper” lineup than the Mets. The bottom of their batting order is much stronger than the Mets. Also, the bullpen is a big edge for the ‘Stros. Mets’ relievers have posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road this season. Astros’ relievers have posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. The Mets, while impressive this season, are due to regress a little as they’ve gone a lucky 5-0 in extra inning games. 8* Houston

7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The Angels dropped the series opener to the Royals 6-2 as three KC home runs, two of them coming in the eighth inning, proved to be too much. For the Halos, it was a very disappointing result after taking four of five over the weekend from the division rival Mariners (on the road). As you probably know, the season has seemingly come apart in Anaheim as the team was 10 games above .500 on May 24th, but has gone just 6-20 ever since. But they still sport a positive YTD run differential and I think they should be able to bounce back here against the last place Royals, who have a -87 run differential. 

Should we be concerned that Angels’ starter Reid Detmers has a 1.622 WHIP over his L3 starts? Or the fact his team start record in his L5 outings is 0-5? I don’t think so! Prior to the 0-5 TSR, he tossed a no-hitter.Detmers also has thrown 4 ⅔ shutout innings against both the Red Sox and the Yankees. So he shouldn’t have much trouble mowing down a Royals’ lineup that is not doing much against lefties this season. Detmers also has a 0.72 WHIP in his six starts here at home. His last start was on the road and against the Dodgers. After facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers, this is a far more favorable matchup. 

It wasn’t too long ago that the Royals had the worst win percentage in all of baseball. That changed after they took two of three out in Oakland over the weekend. Despite winning four of the last seven games overall, KC has averaged just 2.9 runs per game and hit .220. They are only 12-21 on the road and are 7-14 off a win. Starter Jon Heasley has a 1.855 WHIP on the road and the team has lost five of his seven starts overall. I know the Angels are still adjusting to not having Anthony Rendon, but they should find enough offense here to get the ‘W.” 7* LA Angels

8* Miami (6:40 ET): Although the Marlins lost yesterday afternoon to the Mets (6-0) and the Rockies had an off-day (following a three-game sweep of the Padres), I believe the home team should be a much larger favorite for this series opener. The Marlins are better than their record; they have a +13 run differential despite being seven games below .500. They won for me on Sunday (as an underdog). And remember that the Rockies are much worse on the road (11-18 in ‘22, 51-88 L3 seasons). Their three-game sweep of San Diego occurred at Coors Field. Miami, off a 4-6 road trip, also swept its last series here at home.

Though the Marlins were blown out yesterday, they certainly had their chances. Unfortunately, they threw them away by going 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position and leaving 10 men on base. They faced three tough teams on the 10-game road trip, Houston, Philadelphia and the Mets. Now it’s an opponent that’s in last place in the NL West. This is just the fourth time this season that Colorado finds itself on a three-game win streak. Only once have they won four in a row. 

I liked what I saw from Miami starter Daniel Castano his last time out. He faced the Phillies and turned in 6 ⅔ shutout innings of five-hit ball. That was his first start of the season as he’s transitioning from the bullpen. This matchup should be far more favorable than the Phillies were for Castano as the Rockies are averaging only 3.0 runs per game away from home (lowest in NL) and have been below average against lefties. Meanwhile, look for the Marlins to get to Rockies' starter Ryan Feltner this time around after Feltner got the best of them in Denver late last month. Feltner has allowed a home run in each of his last three starts and did get tagged for six runs in three innings by Atlanta on 6/5. The Marlins also have the better bullpen. 8* Miami 

10* Under Dodgers/Reds (6:40 ET): Back in April, the Dodgers swept a four-game series with the Reds, outscoring them 26-7 at Chavez Ravine. That was during Cincy’s horrific 3-22 start to the season. Since then, they’ve stabilized a bit, basically playing .500 ball. But they’re still last in the NL Central (23-43) and deserved underdogs in this matchup as LA comes in with (by far) the best run differential in the National League (+114). But the big difference compared to the last time these teams met is that this series will be contested at Great American Ballpark. The Reds will also have Tyler Mahle on the bump Tuesday and he’s pitched rather well of late. 

Over his last three starts, Mahle has turned in a 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He hasn’t received a decision in that stretch, but did just throw nine innings of three-hit ball (with 12 strikeouts!) his last time out, vs. Arizona. According to STATS, it marked the first time since 1900 that a starting pitcher threw nine scoreless innings on the road with 12+ strikeouts and did NOT get the win. Mahle did throw a career-high 119 pitches vs. the D’backs, but that 5-3 final was obviously quite misleading as all eight runs scored in the game came after the ninth (game went 12 innings).

Over the last eight games, the Dodgers have been held to four or fewer runs SEVEN times. So they’ll need a strong effort on the mound as well. Fortunately, they’re giving the baseball to Tony Gonsolin on Tuesday. Not only is Gonsolin 8-0 in his 12 starts this season, he has a 1.42 ERA and 0.821 WHIP. His last three starts have been downright filthy with a 0.49 ERA and 0.546 WHIP. Gonsolin has not allowed more than three runs in any start this year and that includes four shutout innings vs. Cincinnati in the series back in April. He’s gone at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Should be a good old fashioned pitchers duel in this one. 10* Under Dodgers/Reds

8* Toronto (8:10 ET): The Blue Jays just ended the Yankees’ nine-game win streak on Sunday (won 10-9) and now head to Chicago where they’ll hope to sweep the White Sox for the second time in less than a month. For the Jays, June began with a three-game sweep of the Sox, which made it an eight-game win streak overall. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball (8-8) with four losses in the last six games. But again, they just faced the Yankees and any opponent after that is going to be a drop in class. Such is the case here with a Chicago team I successfully faded last night in Houston. 

As I said in my analysis for Sunday Night Baseball, the White Sox are fortunate to be even close to .500 as they have a -39 run differential on the year. Only Pittsburgh and Detroit have been greater overachievers in terms of win expectancy. On the mound tonight for the Southsiders will be Lance Lynn. He made his 1st start of 2022 last week (against the Tigers) and gave up three runs on 10 hits in just 4 ⅓ innings. The White Sox still won 9-5, but giving up that much damage to the worst offense in MLB was a bad sign. Now Lynn faces a Toronto lineup that is one of the strongest in all of baseball. Lynn is 1-3 with a 4.21 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. the Blue Jays. 

Toronto will go with Jose Berrios here. While his ERA on the season (4.65) isn’t all that great, lately Berrios has been on fire with a 2.45 ERA and 0.636 WHIP his L3 starts. All three starts saw him go at least seven innings and give up three runs or less. All three were also wins as the team is now 10-3 with Berrios on the hill this season. Rallying back from a six-run deficit to beat the Yankees on Sunday should create some “momentum” for the Jays, who are certainly the better team here. Berrios has 12 career wins over the White Sox, his most versus any team. 8* Toronto

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays are going for revenge here as last week saw them get swept up in New York. It’s admittedly been a bit of a tough stretch for TB as they’ve dropped seven of nine overall, including two of three at last place Baltimore over the weekend. But multiple things are working in their favor for Monday’s opener against the Yankees. For starters, they are back at home. The last three-game series at Tropicana Field saw the Rays sweep the Cardinals. (The entirety of the 2-7 stretch has been on the road). The Yankees also had their nine-game win streak ended Sunday. They fell 10-9 at Toronto. 

But perhaps most important of all for the Rays is that they have Shane McClanahan on the mound. A clear Cy Young contender this season, McClanahan comes in with a 1.84 ERA and 0.855 WHIP after 13 starts. The Rays had won seven straight times with him on the mound, before losing his start against the Yankees last week, 4-3. (Note I cashed TB on the run line, +1.5, in that game). McClanahan was victimized by three unearned runs and two homers last week in the Bronx, which is highly uncharacteristic. He still has yet to surrender more than 3 ER in any start this season.

Let’s also point out the fact that despite losing seven of nine, the Rays have been in virtually every game. Their last four losses, including yesterday, were all by exactly one run. Today they’re up against Gerrit Cole, who is just 2-6 all-time against the Rays, his second-worst record against any team. Cole was also hit hard in his last road start, giving up seven runs in 2 ⅓ innings at Minnesota. He did pitch well against the Rays last week, but I think he and the Yankees are due to start “giving a little” back. While it might seem scary to fade the Pinstripes, know that they are only 5-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Tampa Bay

9* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): Two struggling teams here out of the moribund NL Central, a division where the Cardinals and Brewers are set to run away with things. The other three teams, the two here and the Reds, are all also-rans that are at least 13 games below .500 with run differentials of -64 or worse. Despite actually having the best record of the three teams, I’d argue the Pirates might be the worst of the bunch considering they have MLB’s 2nd worst run differential (-104). The Bucs are off a rare win (4-3 over the Giants Sunday), so it’s an even better time than usual to fade them here. 

The Cubs have won just twice in their last 13 games, both wins coming against Atlanta in the previous series. But the Pirates also have just two wins in their last 13 games. Yesterday’s win over the Giants was a bit of a shocker as the Bucs were able to rally from an early 2-0 hole, thanks almost exclusively due to rookie Jack Suwinski’s three-homer game. It was the first time in MLB history that a rookie had a three HR game, which included a walkoff. Meanwhile, after taking the first two games of their series with Atlanta, the Cubs were shutout on Sunday, 6-0. Surprisingly, that was only the third time all season that the Cubs have been blanked. 

The big key here is that I don’t think the Pirates should be favorites against anyone, especially with JT Brubaker on the mound. Brubaker hasn’t won since August of last season and comes into Monday with an 0-7 record. When he faced the Cubs earlier in the year, Brubaker ended up allowing a season-high six runs. He’ll be opposed today by rookie Caleb Kilian, who will be making just his third big league start. Kilian has yet to taste victory, but both previous starts came at Wrigley Field. I just feel that the Cubs are the better team here. Pittsburgh should have an even worse record than it already has. 9* Chi Cubs

6* Houston (7:08 ET): This is all about fading a White Sox team that I don’t believe in (-38 run differential) and is coming off a surprising 7-0 win on Saturday. Meanwhile, a day after matching its season-high in runs for a single game (13), the Astros could only manage three hits yesterday off Johnny Cueto and the Sox bullpen. Certainly, more offense is to be expected from the home team tonight as they are still averaging more than six runs per game over the last week. They’ve also got Cristian Javier on the mound and he’s pitched very well at home thus far (2.61 ERA, 0.919 WHIP). 

The White Sox have now won four of five, but they continue to exceed their win expectancy (for the season) by a larger margin than anyone besides the Tigers and Pirates. Given their run differential, the Sox should feel rather fortunate to be within a game of .500. Sunday starter Michael Kopech has been pretty good so far (1.92 ERA, 0.929 WHIP), but that hasn’t translated into many victories as the team is just 5-6 so far with him on the mound. 

The White Sox are also just 1-4 off a shutout win this year. That includes losing the opener of this series as they’d beaten Detroit 13-0 the previous day. Conversely, the Astros are 4-1 off a shutout loss. They are also 16-8 off a loss of any kind. Should be noted that the team is 33-15 overall in its L48 games. Houston pitching has been excellent this season with opponents batting just .219 against them for the year, including .207 at home. Look for Javier to keep that going against a White Sox lineup that has several players out because of injuries. 6* Houston

9* Miami (1:35 ET): The Mets have already guaranteed themselves of not losing another series by taking the first two games (10-4, 3-2) of this four-game set. But I do not expect Miami to be swept here at Citi Field and Sunday seems like the best time to take them as they’ll have ace Sandy Alcantara on the bump. Alcantara has been excellent so far in 2022, posting a 1.68 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’s been even more “lights out” than usual as of late with a 0.76 ERA and 0.845 WHIP his L3 starts. In a game that isn’t expected to see many runs, taking the underdog is not a bad idea. 

Despite what’s happened so far in this series, it’s not like the Marlins are a bad team. They sport a positive YTD run differential (+13) despite a losing record and actually have a better RD than the Mets over the L10 games. Alcantara has never won at Citi Field, but has a 3.55 ERA in six starts here. Save for a head-scratching start vs. Seattle on May 1st, Alcantara has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. That’s key because Miami is a very bad 9-31 when they score four runs or fewer. But they don’t need to worry about scoring a ton today because Alcantara figures to not give up many runs.

This also seems like an opportune time to fade both the Mets and their starter Chris Bassitt. The Mets are now a season-best 21 games over .500 and off to their best start since the ‘86 World Series team. Bassitt pitched a season-high eight scoreless innings his last time out, but that came on the heels of allowing seven runs in 3 ⅓ innings the start before that. Seven runs is more than Alcantara has allowed over his L5 starts, a stretch which includes two complete games. Miami is 6-1 in Alcantara’s last seven starts as the right-hander has posted a 0.81 ERA and 0.736 WHIP. The underdog has the clear edge in starting pitching on Sunday, so I’ll take them in this spot. 9* Miami

8* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox were humiliated on Saturday, losing 11-2 here at Fenway Park to the Cardinals. But they beat the Cards on Friday, 6-5, and should bounce back on Sunday. The Red Sox have not lost B2B games this month, going 3-0 off a loss previously. They are 12-4 overall in June and have the American League’s third best run differential (+45) despite being fourth in their own division. I like starter Nick Pivetta, who has a 3.50 ERA and 1.085 WHIP this season, despite a 6-7 TSR. He’s pitched well lately. 

Last time out, Pivetta went eight innings and allowed just one run and three hits. Now that was against lowly Oakland, but the bottom line is that Pivetta is now 6-1 his last seven starts with a 2.06 ERA and 0.792 WHIP. He’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of those last seven starts. St. Louis did scored 11 runs yesterday, but they are just 1-3 the L4 times they’ve been off a game where they put 10 or more runs on the board. In the three losses, they’ve totaled only four runs. 

For St. Louis Andre Pallante is set to come out of the bullpen and start the series finale. This won’t be Pallante’s first start (it will be his third). While his 0.96 ERA as a starter may look nice, his 1.501 WHIP does not. Plus, the two teams that Pallante has had to face as a starter were the Reds and Cubs, both of whom are obviously not on the Red Sox level. I’m a little surprised that Boston is just a .500 team (16-16) so far at Fenway this season. These teams would normally be pretty evenly matched, but not with today’s starting pitching matchup. 8* Boston

10* Run Line LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Dodgers -1.5. The home team lost yesterday, 2-1 in extra innings, which was certainly a surprise as they closed at -280 on the money line. But this appears to be a great “buy low” spot on Dodger Blue. I’ve still got them rated #2 overall in my power ratings (behind the Yankees), despite the fact they’ve fallen out of first place in the NL West (½ game behind SD). Saturday’s starting pitcher Julio Urias does have an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts, but a 2.80 ERA and 1.057 WHIP indicate “better times are ahead.” 

Urias has in fact allowed 1 ER or less in three of those last four starts. Last time out, he had 10 strikeouts and zero walks, but allowed two solo homers and lost 2-0 to the Giants. Other than the two solo shots, Urias allowed just one hit in six innings of work. That was also the second time in the last four Urias starts where the Dodgers got blanked, which is certainly odd considering this is a team that has the third highest runs per game average in all of MLB (5.0). What I am (clearly) trying to say here is that Urias is due for better results (and more run support). Very odd to see a starting pitcher that has allowed 2 ER or less eight times have a 4-8 TSR. 

Because of the fact that LA is outscoring teams by 1.7 rpg this year, I’m confident enough to take them on the run line. Plus, Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill is due for some regression as his strikeout rate and velocity have been down, yet he’s somehow managed to keep a 3.38 ERA, a full point below his xERA. When Quantrill starts on the road, Cleveland is just 1-4 this year and while he does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts overall, it’s worth pointing out that the teams he faced were: Kansas City, Texas and Oakland. Despite losing, the Dodgers had more hits in last night’s game. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5)

10* LA Angels (10:10 ET): The Angels have obviously had a dreadful month (lost 12 of 15), but they got this key series off on the right foot, beating Seattle last night by a score of 4-1. Mike Trout continued his resurgence at the plate with two home runs and Shohei Ohtani pitched six innings of three-hit ball. That was actually the Angels’ first road win in over a month (May 15th), snapping an 11-game losing streak away from home, but now is a great time to “buy low” on this club, which is better than its overall record. Let’s not forget that they started the season battling the Astros for first place in the AL West. 

The Astros now have a nine-game cushion in the division. Oakland brings up the rear. In the middle, you’ve got both of these teams bunched closely together, along with Texas. I think Seattle is the weakest of those three, plus they are a team due to regress in ‘22 after winning 90 games last year despite a -51 run differential. Coming into this game, the Mariners have produced very little offense of late. They’ve scored a total of eight runs in the L5 games and been shutout twice. Only three times in the last nine games have the M’s managed to score more than three runs. I do not believe they should be favored in this matchup. 

You may have forgotten that Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last year for Toronto. His numbers this year for Seattle have been pretty good, at least at home, but some key metrics are up, such as xFIP, HR rate and walk rate. Ray is off a solid start vs. Boston, but prior to that had allowed four or more runs in four of his previous five starts. The Angels’ lineup is getting healthier and starting to turn things around. Michael Lorenzen, a former reliever, has transitioned well into a starting role for the Angels and he allowed just one run his last time out. It was his 7th quality start in 10 outings. 10* LA Angels

9* Over Brewers/Reds (6:40 ET): These NL Central rivals have faced off six times this season. All six games have gone Over the total. Four of those games have seen at least 15 total runs scored, all of them have seen at least nine scored. The Brew Crew arrives in the Queen City in poor form, having dropped 10 of 12. While they’ve been shutout in four of those games, I expect they’ll find success offensively here against the suspect pitching of the Reds, which has allowed the fourth most runs in all of MLB this season. The Over is 18-11 at Great American Ballpark this year with an average of 11.7 rpg scored. 

After an absolutely horrific 3-22 start to the year, the Reds have stabilized and played better than .500 ball over the last month. There are actually seven teams with worse run differentials and Cincy is now poised to climb out of the NL Central cellar (tied with the Cubs) and they’re only two games back of third place (albeit a terrible division). But while Friday’s starter Hunter Greene is coming off B2B solid outings, he still has a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Greene faced Milwaukee twice in May and one of those starts saw him allow FIVE home runs in just 2 ⅔ innings. As you already know, both starts ended up going Over the total. The Reds’ bullpen also stinks and the Brewers have 22 hits in the L2 games. 

Milwaukee counters with southpaw Eric Lauer, who has struggled as of late. The team has lost each of his L3 starts, all of which have gone Over the total. During that time, Lauer has an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.80. The Reds are scoring 6.0 rpg at home this season, which is 1st in all of baseball, even ahead of the Rockies at Coors Field. Lifetime, Lauer is 1-4 with a 4.25 ERA against the Reds, which includes 0-2 (4.20 ERA) in three starts last season. Surprisingly, he has not started any of the six previous head to head meetings in ‘22. 9* Over Brewers/Reds

7* Tampa Bay (6:05 ET): The Rays were just swept by the Yankees and have dropped five of six overall, while the Orioles have won four of their last six games and just earned a surprising split of a four-game series up in Toronto. But I look at this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the visiting Rays, who are clearly the better team. Baltimore is once again destined for the AL East basement. 

The Rays certainly played the Yankees tough for three games, losing by one run twice and giving up just eight runs in the entire series. I know that tonight’s starter Shane Baz had a really rough first outing (gave up five runs in 2 ⅓ innings), but the prospect is highly touted for a reason and should shine here against an Orioles’ lineup that is due to “cool off” after scoring six or more runs during the 5-1 stretch. The O’s put 10 on the board yesterday, six of those coming in one innings. But Baltimore is 0-3 this season following a game where it scored 10 or more runs. 

While I’m bullish on Baz, the same cannot be said for Baltimore starter Dean Kremer, who has made two starts and they went quite differently. Kremer has a 5.63 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa Bay. He also has a career 5.54 xFIP, which is quite horrible. I think it sets up to be a nice weekend for the Rays, who should easily take this series opener. 7* Tampa Bay

9* Over Braves/Cubs (2:20 ET): Talk about a couple teams heading in different directions. Winners of 14 straight, the Braves are the hottest team in baseball right now and are coming off an off-day. Now it should be pointed out that the defending World Series Champs have taken advantage of an easy schedule, which has seen them face Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, Pittsburgh & Washington this month. But give them credit for winning all of those games. The Cubs have lost their last 10 games after being swept here at home by San Diego to start the week. They’ve allowed a total of 90 runs during the losing streak! 

Unless the wind today at Wrigley is blowing in at some record level, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this series opener. I’ve already given you an inkling at the current state of Cubs’ pitching. Today’s starter Keegan Thompson has a 6.26 ERA and 1.609 WHIP this season and the last time he pitched, the Cubs ended up losing 18-4 to the Yankees. The start before that saw Thompson surrender seven runs (in just three innings) to Baltimore. Here he faces a Braves lineup that has scored 101 runs during its current win streak and averaged 7.0 per game the L7 days. The road team could conceivably send this one Over by themselves. 

But they probably won’t “have” to, considering who they have pitching. While the Cubs’ Thompson has seen his L3 starts all go Over, Atlanta’s Charlie Morton has seen 11 of 12 starts this year go Over the total, including nine straight! Morton has a 5.67 ERA and 1.489 WHIP in 2022 and those numbers both get worse on the road. Morton has surrendered exactly four runs in four straight starts, never lasting more than six innings. The Cubs’ lineup has been surprisingly decent against right-handed pitching and Over is the only way to play this daytime matchup. 9* Over Braves/Cubs

10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays (3:05 ET): Let’s try with the Under again on this AL East matchup. It may not have worked out for us back on Tuesday, but I think this is a great spot to try again as the Orioles are coming off back to back games where they scored six runs, which is a rarity. For the year, they are averaging only 3.9 rpg on the road and they have a team batting average of .229 in all games. While these teams have been an exception to the rule, usually it’s a good idea to play Unders in division games. With Toronto being such a solid favorite, it’s likely that they’ll win and that’s (hopefully) three less outs we have to worry about.

Now the Blue Jays did lose that game on Tuesday, 6-5. Then they blew a 5-0 lead yesterday, before battling back to win 7-6 in 10 innings. But the odds of them winning today, inside of nine innings seems strong. They’ve got Kevin Gausman starting. He used to pitch for Baltimore and was their top draft choice in 2012. His six seasons with the Orioles went OK, but when you look at the individual record, remember that he was pitching for a bad team. Gausman’s first year in Toronto has (predictably) been a lot better (although his TSR is only 7-5) and he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.189 WHIP. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start this season. 

At the plate, Toronto has been hitting the cover off the ball during a 15-5 run. But the “x-factor” in this game is Orioles’ starting pitcher Tyler Wells, who has a 2.81 ERA and 0.875 WHIP his last three starts. Like Gausman, Wells has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Both are coming off quality starts here. With the teams being “due” for an Under, let’s play accordingly as the Orioles are set to regress (at the plate), but Wells should keep Toronto in check. 10* Under Orioles/Blue Jays

7* Run Line Oakland (1:35 ET): The A’s have just one win in June and now that includes an 0-5 record against the Red Sox following yesterday’s 10-1 loss. None of that is inspiring heading into today’s series finale at Fenway Park, but the road team will have Paul Blackburn on the mound and him getting an additional 1.5 runs seems like a good value to me. To be clear, this is a run line play where I’m backing the A’s +1.5. With them having the edge on the mound, this is a smart play. The Red Sox are only 15-14 at home while Oakland has actually been more competitive on the road. 

Blackburn was outstanding his last time out, holding Cleveland scoreless over eight innings. He gave up only four hits, but unfortunately ended up not factoring into the decision as the A’s bullpen blew the game. Note that it was a one-run loss, a result we’ll take here. Plus, Blackburn has now allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 12 starts this year. He’s 4-0 in his seven road starts (6-1 TSR) with a spectacular 0.91 ERA and 0.907 WHIP.  Now he did struggle a bit against this Boston lineup back on June 4th, giving up four runs in four innings. But I think, on the road, he’s set to pitch a lot better this time out. 

Now Oakland needs some runs, obviously. They rank 29th (second to last) in runs scored and yesterday was the 22nd game this season they scored 1 run or less. Thankfully, they’ll be facing Rich Hill Thursday afternoon. Hill is 0-2 in four home starts with an 8.04 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. He’s made through six innings in just two of his 11 starts this season. There’s no disputing Boston has been the better team, both head to head and overall, but Oakland’s edge in today’s starting pitching matchup is substantial and getting an additional 1.5 runs in our “back pocket” is a nice luxury to have. Look for the A’s to do no worse than a one-run loss today. 7* Run Line Oakland

6* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line where I am backing the Rays +1.5. In a matchup with an outstanding pitching matchup, there figures to be very few runs scored. So, in my opinion, this is the best way to play it. The Rays may have lost the series opener 2-0 (while the Yankees have won five straight and 12 of their last 13), but the visitors also have perhaps the best pitcher in baseball on the mound this evening, that being Shane McClanahan. Him +1.5 runs is a steal, even at this price. 

McClanahan comes in with a 7-0 team start record in his L7 starts (meaning the Rays have won all seven starts) with a 1.19 ERA and 0.772 WHIP over that stretch! His overall numbers for the season are not much different. I took him in his previous start, which came at home vs. St. Louis, and McClanahan did a number on the Cardinals’ lineup, allowing only one run on two hits over eight innings. He has not allowed more than three runs in any start all season while going at least six innings in 9 of his L10 starts. 

Now the Yankees will have arguably their top pitcher, Nestor Cortes, on the hill. This is why I feel more confident in taking the Rays on the RL as opposed to the money line. Cortes is having a similar year to McClanahan, although his ERA and WHIP are slightly higher. He also lost his last start after giving up a pair of homers and four runs total (lasted only 4 ⅓ innings). The Rays do hit lefties better than they hit righties and the team is a perfect 3-0 this season after a shutout loss. 6* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5)

10* Minnesota (4:10 ET): I was wrong on this matchup yesterday, as the Mariners were able to even the series up with a 5-0 shutout. The Twins just couldn’t muster anything against Logan Gilbert, who went six innings and gave up just four hits. But I think today’s matchup is in their favor and a win is rather necessary with their lead in the AL Central down to 2.5 games over Cleveland. As I said yesterday, Seattle is not a team I’m buying over the long haul as they overachieved to get to 90 wins last season. Look for the Twins, who have successfully bounced back from each of their L4 losses, to take this game and series.

While the Twins couldn’t do any damage last night against Gilbert, look for them to get to today’s starter for Seattle, Marco Gonzales. Gonzales may enter this game with a decent 3.63 ERA, but several other metrics indicate regression is on the horizon. The team has lost 8 of Gonzales’ 12 starts this season, including each of the last three. Part of that is they haven’t given him much support, which could be the case again today as the M’s have only scored a total of seven runs in their L3 games. Something to watch for with Gonzales is that his strikeout rate is way down this year. He also issued six walks in his last start. He’s 0-3 with a 9.37 ERA all-time vs. Minnesota. 

The Twins will certainly be happy to see Sonny Gray back on the mound Wednesday. Before landing on the injured list (for a second time this season), Gray was really “in a groove,” posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.684 WHIP his last three starts, all wins. Gray has a 2.89 ERA in 13 previous starts vs. Seattle, who is just 10-17 off a win this season, including 0-2 if it was a shutout. Gray should get some nice run support here as not only is Gonzales set to regress, but the Twins hit lefties well anyway. 10* Minnesota

9* Under White Sox/Tigers (1:10 ET): The White Sox string of Overs (five in a row) ended yesterday when they defeated Detroit 5-1. Still badly “in the hole” when it comes to run differential (-48), they’ll try and move within a game of .500 today as they look to finish off the sweep. But, because of said run differential, and the fact the inconsistent Vince Velasquez is on the bump, I’m not about to back Chicago. But I also can’t back the Tigers knowing they are - by far - the lowest scoring team in all of MLB. 

What aids the Tigers’ cause in this daytime matchup is the fact they have Alex Faedo starting. Faedo brings a 2.92 ERA into Wednesday and has arguably been the team’s most consistent starter. He’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in any of his seven outings, although he’s also yet to pitch after the sixth inning. But that’s okay because the Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good this season, posting a 3.00 ERA. Yes, the White Sox have scored 5+ runs in six straight games, but they also average just 3.9 on the road for the year.

Detroit wishes it averaged 3.9 runs per game. They are last in the league at 2.8 and trail the second worst team by half a run per game.They are 29th (second worst) in OBP and dead last in slugging. So don’t expect many runs from the home team today. They’ve scored no more than three in five of the last six contests. I did mention earlier that Velasquez has been inconsistent for Chicago, but he’s capable of handling a lineup that struck out 14 times yesterday and went 0 for 8 with RISP. 9* Under White Sox/Tigers

8* Over Marlins/Phillies (7:05 ET): Both the Marlins and the Phillies have been hot as of late, but neither has been able to make up much ground in the NL East where the Mets continue to pace the division and the defending World Series Champion Braves have won 13 in a row. We’ve got ourselves a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon as the Phillies took Monday’s opener 3-2, but the Marlins bounced back with an 11-9 win yesterday. The teams are now a combined 19-7 in June (Phils 10-2, Marlins 9-5), so I’m laying off the side here. But I think that the total provides plenty of value in this daytime matchup. 

Miami was originally going to start Pablo Lopez in this spot, but he’s dealing with a wrist injury, so it looks like Daniel Castano will instead get the nod Wednesday. This is a significant downgrade for Don Mattingly on the mound. Lopez ranks third in the NL and eighth overall in ERA while Castano was just recalled from the minors earlier in the week. Castano will have to deal with a Phillies lineup that has scored 6+ runs in 8 of its 12 games this month. As a team, the Phillies are batting .300 over the last week. The Over is 16-5 in their last 21 games and a perfect 6-0 in game three of a series.

The Phillies may have only lost twice in their L12 games, but both losses saw them surrender 11+ runs. We saw their bullpen implode in last night’s game, giving up seven runs over the final three innings, including four in the ninth. Getting the start today will be Kyle Gibson, who has a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts and 4.40 for the season. Gibson allowed four runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced the Marlins back in April. Five of his last six starts have seen at least nine total runs scored and three of the last four meetings between these teams have seen at least 13 runs scored. Expect more scoring this afternoon (from both clubs). 8* Over Marlins/Phillies

9* Minnesota (10:10 ET): We’re getting the better team at “plus money” here and the Twins won the series opener, 3-2, here in Seattle. All they needed was a first inning home run from Byron Buxton last night as starter Chris Archer and the Twins’ bullpen easily shut the Mariners down. Prior to last night’s win, Minnesota had scored six or more runs in six of its last nine games. They lead the AL Central by 3.5 games but are seven up in the win column over second place Cleveland. I view the Twins as being underrated in this spot and will gladly take them in this price range. 

Seattle, who won 90 games last season despite a -51 run differential, was a lock to regress this season. Currently, they are fourth in AL West, ahead of only Oakland. Last night was the M’s fourth loss in six games and came on the heels of being one-hit (by Boston) on Sunday. There just hasn’t been much production at the plate lately and tonight they face Joe Ryan, who is having a very good 2022 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. His numbers are even better on the road (1.61, 0.985) where he has a 4-0 team start record. He’s coming off the COVID list, but last time out Ryan easily defeated KC 9-2, allowing just one run in 5 ⅔ IP. 

Logan Gilbert starting is probably the sole reason that Seattle is favored in this game. Gilbert has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and is on a streak of five consecutive quality outings. But, as mentioned above, this Twins’ lineup is raking the ball as of late. Buxton was named the AL Player of the Week for the last week while leadoff man Luis Arraez leads the league with a .362 average. 9* Minnesota

7* Cleveland (8:40 ET): The Guardians are trending up, thanks mostly to a pretty easy schedule as of late. The team has won 10 of its last 13 games and won four straight series, outscoring the competition 67-44 and that’s even with allowing 10 runs in a rare loss to Oakland on Saturday. Looking at the AL Central race Cleveland is just 3.5 games back of Minnesota and has a better YTD run differential. They’ve played seven fewer games than the Twins and that’s the difference in the standings right now. I look for the Guardians to continue rolling Tuesday as they open up a rare three-game series in Coors Field. 

These teams do not face off often. Cleveland has played only two games at Coors Field in the last decade, both in 2017! But an offense that’s hitting a collective .280 over the last week should thrive in this environment. They’ll face Antonio Senzatela, who has a terrible WHIP (1.854) and an 0-4 TSR over his L4 starts. Now three of those four outings came against San Francisco. But Senzatela also allowed six runs and 13 hits when he faced Miami here at home on June 1st. Behind Senzatela, the Rockies won’t have one of their top relievers as Tyler Kinley was placed on the 15-game DL on Sunday. 

The always reliable Shane Bieber will toe the rubber tonight for the Guardians. His ERA is 1.67 over the last five starts, four of them quality and then he didn’t allow any runs over 4 ⅓ IP vs. Texas last week. Yes, the Rockies are always a threat to score runs at home, but off B2B victories for the first time in a month (played a doubleheader on Saturday), this is a good time to fade them. Cleveland has scored three or more runs in every game since May 29th and figures to put up a big number today. Bieber should take care of the rest as the Guardians continue their pursuit of the Twins. 7* Cleveland