10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): Cincinnati has been a wonderful story this season, making it to just their third Super Bowl in history. This is a franchise that had not won a playoff game going all the way back to 1990. But let’s be frank here; the Bengals have been outgained on a per play basis in each of the last three games. In their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988, they found themselves down 21-3 to the Chiefs, yet somehow pulled out a miraculous 27-24 overtime win. The Bengals feel like they will be a very “public dog” come Super Sunday, thus I’m going to fade them. 

I think people are forgetting that this is the second time in four years that the Rams are appearing in the Super Bowl. The last time didn’t go well as they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in the lowest scoring SB ever. But this Rams team is better AND playing on its home field. Now, SoFi Stadium isn’t exactly the strongest homefield advantage in the league. But the Rams are 7-3 SU here this season and know the place well. Let’s not forget what happened in LY’s SB when Tampa Bay, playing on its homefield, destroyed Kansas City. It’s pretty interesting that no team played in its home stadium for the first 49 Super Bowls and now it’s happened two years in a row. 

The Rams have pretty clearly been the better team in all three of their playoff games. They boat raced Arizona (in this stadium), then went on the road and took a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay. That game should have never ended up being so close at the end. In the NFC Championship, the Rams did trail most of the way, but also outgained the 49ers 396-282. The big key in this matchup is the Rams’ defense, which is easily the best Cincinnati will have faced this season. Incredibly, the Bengals have faced just ONE top 10 defense in 2021-22! Again, it’s been a nice story out of Cincy, but look for it to end poorly and this team to regress next year. The Rams are simply better. 10* LA Rams

10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): So the 49ers swept the regular season series and have now beaten the Rams six straight times (while going 5-1 ATS). I actually had the Niners in both regular season matchups. The first time they were 3.5 point underdogs at home on MNF. That was the game that really turned around their season. San Fran was just 3-5 SU at that time and hadn’t won a home game in more than a year. They ended up prevailing rather easily, 31-10. The second meeting had far more importance as this time the Niners needed to win to make the playoffs. That’s why I took them plus the points and it ended up being a 27-24 outright win in overtime. 

While the Niners were deserved winners here in LA back in Week 18 (ended up +184 in total yards), allow me to remind you that the Rams led 17-0 at halftime. It is the only time during his head coaching tenure that Sean McVay lost a game when leading at the break (45-0). The 49ers again rallied from a halftime deficit in the Divisional Round, ousting the top seeded Packers on a last second field goal, 13-10. But remember that wouldn’t have been possible without returning a blocked punt for a TD in the 4Q. I’m aware that the Niners have been real “road warriors” in recent years, but their luck is about to run out here. 

Let’s start with the fact that no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye since 1961. Teams in the playoffs that are playing their fourth consecutive road game are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. I think the 49ers were a little lucky to prevail against both Dallas (who had bad clock management) and Green Bay (gained only 212 total yards). The Rams have been far more impressive in their two playoff wins, routing Arizona 34-11 and taking a 27-3 lead at Tampa Bay. I find it very hard to believe that the Rams would lose a seventh straight time to the Niners. They didn’t have anything to really play for the last time. Jimmy G remains a liability for a team that easily could have lost all of its last three games. Lay the points. 10* LA Rams

8* Kansas City (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. The loss to the Bengals is the only time KC has gone down since early November and they’ve put up 42 points in each playoff win. 

The Bengals have done well as underdogs this season, but KC is just the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of its first 19 games. The last four have all gone on to the Super Bowl. This will be the 13th consecutive time the Chiefs have been favored to win in the playoffs, the last 10 all coming with Mahomes as QB, a stretch that has seen the team go 7-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS when favored by at least four points, as they are here. 

Cincy just has the feeling of a “public dog” in this spot. They deserve kudos for making it thus far, but also beat a subpar Raiders team in the Wild Card Round, then arguably the weakest #1 seed we’ve ever seen (Tennessee) last weekend. Kansas City beat a subpar Pittsburgh team in Wild Card Weekend, but then ousted the #1 team in my power rankings (Buffalo) last week. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 7.5 yards per play in the two playoff wins! The Bengals have actually been outgained on a per play basis in both of their playoff wins. Lay the points. 8* Kansas City

10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. 

The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. 

Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. 

It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. 

The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams

8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. 

Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. 

The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home!  On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas

10* Georgia (8:00 ET): When I took Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, I noted that it felt like the all-time “buy low” situation on Nick Saban as his Crimson Tide were underdogs for just the second time in 165 games. They needed the game more than Georgia did (to get into the CFP) and sure enough, at the end of the day it ended up being an outright 41-24 win by Bama as 6.5 point underdogs. The spread is shorter this time, predictably so, but I am pivoting to Georgia for the rematch. This time, the Bulldogs will be ready and the more motivated side. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The game was never in doubt as UGA rolled to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and was up 27-3 at halftime. Really, the final score could have been a lot worse. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. 

Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. This is a team that led most of the way in virtually every other game besides the SEC Championship. To me, the key here is if the UGA defense looks like it did in every other game this year. I don’t think there’s any way that ‘Bama goes for 41 points again. The Tide won’t have WR John Metchie this time. Georgia has been the better team all year in my eyes as Bama had the close calls vs. Auburn, LSU and Arkansas down the stretch. I don’t see Bama upsetting Georgia twice. 10* Georgia

10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): In the name of point differential, the Chargers MUST win this game. They have outscored opponents by 18 points this season. That’s certainly nothing special, but it’s what you’d expect from a 9-7 SU team that’s trying to grab one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. It’s far more impressive than Las Vegas, who is also 9-7 SU but has been outscored this year by 68 points. It is my view that the Raiders do not belong in the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to win (and cover) the final game of the regular season.

These teams met back in Week 4 and I had the foresight to get down on Los Angeles, who went on to win 28-14. It was 21-0 at halftime and the Chargers finished with a 380-213 edge in total yards and 25-13 edge in first downs. For this rematch, yes the game is in Vegas, but the Raiders haven’t shown much of a home field advantage at Allegiant Stadium (3-5 SU here this season) and it’s not like the Chargers benefited from any home field edge at So-Fi Stadium (they have the weakest home field advantage in the league).

Assuming that the Colts win earlier in the day (to move to 10-7 SU), then this becomes a “winner take all” game for the final playoff spot. If the Colts somehow lost, which is unlikely as they are facing the Jaguars, then BOTH of these teams could make the playoffs with a tie. I think the idea of playing for a tie in today’s NFL seems absurd. So I’m banking on Justin Herbert, who has previously led his team to victories in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all playoff teams). The Raiders are a very lucky 6-2 SU in one-score games. Their luck runs out here. 10* LA Chargers

9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): The 49ers (9-7 SU) need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs. They could also get in with a Saints loss, but given who the Saints are facing (Falcons), they shouldn’t count on that. The Rams (12-4 SU) need a win here to clinch the NFC West. So both teams are invested in this Week 18 matchup. But the stakes are clearly higher for San Francisco, who has already beaten the Rams once this season, 31-10. I’ll take them plus the points in the rematch. 

I was on the Niners the first time these teams met. It was on MNF and quickly turned into a blowout as it was 14-0 after the first quarter. For the entirety of the second half, the Niners would maintain a two touchdown advantage. That was the game that really turned their season around. SF was only 3-5 SU heading into the game. They’ve won six of eight since. The two losses, both on the road, were by seven points or less. They clearly should have won the game in Tennessee. Believe it or not, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, a metric that I really value. 

Now the big story heading into Week 18 is who will play QB for San Francisco. HC Kyle Shanahan and his team obviously knows, but the Rams do not. I view this as an obvious edge for the underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week due to a right thumb injury, reportedly had a “good week of practice.” So he could be back in the starting lineup. Or it might be rookie Trey Lance, who guided the team to an easy 23-7 win over the Texans last week. Either way, I like the Niners plus the points over a Rams team that’s been a little lucky the last few weeks. 9* San Francisco

9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs, but it’s going to take plenty of help. The Steelers obviously must win here, then have the Jaguars beat the Colts and hope Chargers-Raiders doesn’t end in a tie. The Ravens’ chances are even more bleak as they need to win and have the Colts, Dolphins and Chargers all lose. I don’t think much of Pittsburgh (-58 point differential), but Baltimore (five straight losses with four coming by two points or less!) is a sinking ship right now. So take the points.  It was announced Friday that Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to a right ankle injury. The Ravens haven’t won since their QB got hurt, although the two games started by Tyler Huntley were both one-point losses. But don’t forget they were dominated at home by the Packers before making things interesting late. Then they were dominated by the Bengals with Jackson and Huntley both out. Last week, with Huntley back, the Ravens blew a 16-7 4Q lead and lost to the Rams 20-19. I just don’t see this team “getting off the mat” after such a slew of close losses. 

Pittsburgh is off an emotional Monday night in what was likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. They beat the Browns 26-14. It was the Steelers that began the Ravens’ downfall with a 20-19 win back on December 5th, the first of two times John Harbaugh infamous went for two and the win, only to fail and lose the game. While the Steelers have been shakier on the road of late, I like that their defense is giving up only 4.7 yards per play the last three weeks while the Ravens’ defense has allowed 7.4 YPP over the same time. The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS L51 tries as an underdog. 9* Pittsburgh

10* Denver (4:35 ET): Last week’s loss to Cincinnati means Kansas City essentially blew its opportunity to gain home field advantage in the playoffs. They still have a chance at being the top seed, mind you, but that would require not just winning here, but also Tennessee losing to Houston on Sunday, which probably isn’t going to happen. Now the Chiefs still do have some motivation on Saturday. A win would guarantee them no lower than the two-seed, meaning the possibility of two home playoff games. But I don’t think that necessarily guarantees they will go out and win by double digits here. Take the points here.

After a 3-0 start to the season, the Broncos are just 4-9 in their L13 games, leaving them at 19-29 SU in HC Vic Fangio’s three seasons here. There’s a lot more questions than answers for this team as it will miss the postseason for a sixth straight year. But Denver does have a great defense, one that is ninth overall in yards allowed, third in scoring, seventh against the pass and 14th against the run. They will be missing a few starters on that side of the ball for this final game, but recall that they were able to limit KC QB Mahomes to just 15 completions - and zero touchdown passes - in the first meeting, which was a very misleading 22-9 loss.

In that loss, the Broncos actually outgained the Chiefs 404-267 and had seven more first downs for the game. But they were limited to just three field goals and turned it over three times, one of which was an interception returned for a TD. That was the 12th straight loss for Denver to KC and while I don’t see that streak ending Saturday, look for the Broncos - thanks to their defense - to keep this one close. I think it’s going to be tough for KC to “get up” for this game after blowing a 28-14 lead at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 475 yards, so there’s hope for Drew Lock and the Denver offense. 10* Denver

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): LSU is going to have a non-scholarship QB taking snaps in this game. That sounds bad. The reason for the situation is because starter Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M, backup Myles Brennan is hurt and freshman Garrett Nussmeier didn’t want to lose his redshirt by playing. In addition to this dire circumstance under center, LSU barely has enough players (reportedly only 44 on scholarship still available) to suit up for this game because of COVID. And they have an interim coaching staff that probably could care less about winning. You’ve absolutely got to fade the Tigers here. 

Meanwhile, Kansas State has no COVID issues and is dealing with zero opt-outs. The Wildcats are getting their starting QB (Skylar Thompson) back from injury and clearly will be the more motivated side in the Texas Bowl Tuesday night. This is a chance for KSU to beat a SEC school and end its season on a positive note. They lost the final two regular season games and were without Thompson in the finale vs. Texas (only lost 22-17). In the last three games that Thompson has finished, the Wildcats averaged 33.3 PPG.

Even when they were at full strength, something they are not close to being tonight, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. It was a 6-6 regular season in Baton Rouge and the only teams the Tigers defeated by more than seven points were: McNeese State, Central Michigan and LA Monroe, all games where they were favored by at least 19.5 points. Tonight is setting up to be a real embarrassment for the LSU program, almost as embarrassing as incoming HC Brian Kelly faking a southern accent in his first public appearance in front of the fanbase. 10* Kansas State

8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): The Packers should destroy the Vikings Sunday Night as the road team will be without QB Kirk Cousins. This is a revenge game for Green Bay, which lost the first meeting in Minnesota, 34-31 on a last second field goal. While they lost, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per play against the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Packers are 7-0 this season and averaging 29.7 PPG. The Vikings’ defensive numbers get much worse on the road. 

While Rodgers figures to lead the Packers’ offense to a big day, you can’t expect much here from the Minnesota offense. The loss of Cousins is huge as he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be Sean Mannion making just his third career start on Sunday night and he won’t have WR Adam Thielen to throw to. It’s expected to be very cold in Lambeau, which will have an adverse effect on a Vikings team that plays its home games indoors. The defense gives up 26.9 PPG on the road. 

Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in primetime games this season and 12-4 ATS in them all-time under HC Matt LaFleur. Overall, they are 11-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 at home. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire of late with a 16-0 TD-INT ratio the last five games. He is 25-12 ATS at home vs. NFC North teams. The Packers are looking to lock down home field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which would be huge for them given their record at Lambeau. I am predicting this will easily be the Vikings’ biggest loss of the season. 8* Green Bay

10* Detroit (4:25 ET): The Lions obviously don’t win many games (they are 2-12-1 straight up), but they do cover regularly. I like them this week plus the points against what is likely to be an unmotivated Seattle side. The Lions’ 10-5 ATS record is third best in the league, only trailing the Packers and Cowboys. Five of their losses this season have come by four points or less, including last week’s (20-16) against Atlanta. Since the bye, they are 6-1 ATS with three of their four SU losses coming by four or less. They tied the Steelers and beat the Vikings and Cardinals during that time. For the season, the Lions are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and they’ve covered four straight times off a loss.

Seattle has only been outscored by a single point this year, but they are 5-10 SU and were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Bears. Again, I have to come back to the issue of motivation as the Seahawks are just the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorites despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. The previous teams in this role all lost the game outright! Over the L11 games, Seattle is only 3-8 SU with two of the wins coming against Jacksonville and Houston. They are 2-5 SU at home this season and with nothing left to play for, them laying points seems a bit dicey. 

QB Jared Goff is doubtful to play here, but his impact is minimal. The return of RB D’Andre Swift is significant though as are the contributions of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just the second rookie to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Russell Wilson has not been himself since returning from injury as he ranks just 22nd in QBR and has now failed to throw for 300 yards in 10 consecutive games, his longest stretch since his rookie year. The Seahawks’ offense is dead last in the league in third down conversion rate (33.7%), a massive problem. Take the points. 10* Detroit

8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I know that the 49ers may not have Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but based on how the QB performed last week, that may not be a bad thing. Plus the Niners will be facing the Texans, one of the league’s worst teams. If Garoppolo can’t go (and it’s looking doubtful that he will), then it will be rookie Trey Lance getting the start. Lance is a first round draft pick, so he’s not “chopped liver.” San Francisco SHOULD have beaten Tennessee last week; they led 10-0 at halftime and ended up outgaining the Titans 389-278 (not to mention 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play). 

Houston has won back to back games, but is still just 4-11 SU on the year and has the third worst point differential (-153) in the NFL. Let us not forget that two of the Texans’ four wins came against the Jaguars. Last week’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers was certainly shocking as the offense gained over 400 yards for the first time since Week 1. The Texans also benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. The bottom line is that I still consider them to be one of the very worst teams in this league. 

This will actually be the first time under HC Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco is favored by more than 10 points. The team has generally struggled to cover as home chalk during Shanahan’s tenure, but there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game and likely move on to the playoffs. Houston won’t be able to run the ball in this matchup, not just because they are last in the league in rushing offense, but also due to the fact the SF defense is #2 in the league at stopping the run. Meanwhile, the Niners get their leading rusher (Elijah Mitchell) back from injury this week. Lay the points. 8* San Francisco

8* Washington (1:00 ET): This is the Football Team’s second crack at the Eagles in three weeks as they lost 27-17 in Philadelphia (on a Tuesday) back in Week 15. That game had to be moved because of COVID and while that’s still an issue in the Washington locker room, they will have some key players back on Sunday that missed the first meeting. Pro Bowl guard Scherff, safety Curl and top tackler Holcomb are all set to return. Most importantly, the team won’t have to rely on third string QB Garrett Gilbert this time. (Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen reportedly will both take snaps). Despite being so short-handed in that first meeting with the Eagles, Washington was still tied at halftime on the road.

Now, in between games vs. the Eagles, it was obviously a horrible effort last Sunday night from the Football Team as they were lambasted 56-14 by Dallas. That loss is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I don’t expect a lot of people rushing to the window to bet Washington this week. However, it’s important to note that Philadelphia has some serious injury issues at the running back position with Miles Sanders and perhaps Jordan Howard out. That’s a big deal for an offense that leads the league in rushing. 

I know that these are teams trending in different directions, but Washington should be motivated after taking such an embarrassing loss in front of a national TV audience last week. Technically, they are still alive in the playoff race. I see value on them getting this many points. What’s interesting about the Eagles is that they were underdogs in each of their first seven games and have been favored (or a pick ‘em) in the last eight. Before the last three weeks, they’d never been favored by more than four points. 8* Washington

10* Ohio State (5:00 ET): So I am fully aware of the opt-outs for the Buckeyes. That coupled with the way their regular season ended (loss to Michigan) have many questioning OSU’s resolve for this Rose Bowl Game vs. Utah. But have we all forgotten that Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country? Power ratings will never determine the College Football Playoff, but it’s still worth mentioning that virtually every set of my power ratings (including my own) would label the Buckeyes as the third best team in the country. With this line coming down so much, we are getting an incredible value on the favorite for this one. My power ratings suggest the number should be close to TWO TOUCHDOWNS! 

Utah comes in as one of the “hottest teams in the country,” but they also hail from the Pac 12, which is probably the weakest of the five power conferences. The two wins over Oregon were impressive, but other than those, it’s a lot of weak opponents that they were able to take advantage of. Ohio State, even minus the opt-outs, is easily the best team the Utes will have faced all season. I also think the notion that Ohio State “doesn’t care” about this game is a bit premature. No Buckeyes team has lost B2B games since 2013. They will be eager to atone for the loss to Michigan. 

Ohio State had the #1 offense in the country this year, averaging 551.4 yards and 45.5 points per game. Not sure how Utah can compete with that. On the field for the Buckeyes on New Year’s Day will still be QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. This offense is still going to put points on the board. This is the shortest spread for any OSU game all season, even lower than when they visited Ann Arbor. Again, I believe it to be the best value of not just the bowls, but the entire College Football season. 10* Ohio State

8* Georgia (7:30 ET): Michigan is what I’d call a “trendy dog” heading into the second CFP semifinal, which will be played at the Orange Bowl down in Miami. I suppose that’s not a shock, given how the Wolverines and Georgia performed in their respective conference championship games. Michigan throttled Iowa 42-3 to win the Big 10 while Georgia suffered its first loss of the year, 41-24 at the hands of Alabama. But the Wolverines don’t have Bryce Young playing QB nor are they as dynamic offensively as the Crimson Tide. Look for UGA to reassert itself defensively here and remind everyone why they were the #1 ranked team in the country for most of this season. 

 Even after the debacle vs. Alabama, the Georgia defense can still say it only allows 9.5 PPG for the season. Prior to the SEC Championship, the most points allowed by the Bulldogs in a game this season was 17 (against Tennessee). Georgia almost never trailed at any point during the regular season. Not to make excuses, but heading into the Alabama game, the Bulldogs knew that they would still make the CFP even with a loss. Conversely, the Crimson Tide HAD to win the game to get in the CFP. The way the game unfolded very much reflected those realities.

Remember that Michigan was a 6.5-point home dog to Ohio State and no one was giving them much of a chance. HC Jim Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for winning that game, but the approach used against the Buckeyes (41 carries for 297 yds rushing) will not work here. The Georgia defense allowed 10 points or less nine times and had three shutouts. They’d allowed just 83 total points in the first 11 games. After upsetting Ohio State, the Wolverines caught a huge break drawing an overrated Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. I’ve still got Georgia ranked as the best team in the country, even after the loss to Bama. 8* Georgia

8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): I thought that the SEC Championship Game was the ultimate “buy low” spot on Nick Saban as Alabama was not just a 6.5-point underdog to Georgia, but was also seemingly being written off by just about everybody. So I hopped on board, taking the points, and the Crimson Tide ended up turning in one of the more impressive performances of the entire College Football season by beating the top-ranked ‘Dawgs 41-24. After a win like that, Bama is pretty popular again and has been installed as double digit favorites for their CFP semifinal vs. Cincinnati. It’s too many points. 

I get that the Crimson Tide looked incredible vs. Georgia while Cincinnati is the first non-Power 5 team to ever make the CFP. But the Bearcats are legit. They are certainly better than the Notre Dame team Alabama faced in LY’s CFP semifinal. That game saw Bama fail to cover, for the record. Cincy absolutely deserves to be here as the lone 12-0 team in the country. They went to South Bend and handled Notre Dame pretty easily. Do I think the Bearcats will win on New Year’s Eve? No. But this is the biggest game in program history and they aren't about to get blown out. Non-P5 teams have been very competitive in NY6 Bowl Games in years’ past. My own power ratings say this should be a single-digit spread. 

Led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young, Alabama does average 42.5 PPG. Not even Georgia’s top-ranked defense could slow them down. But the Crimson Tide did lose WR John Metchie to a knee injury in the SEC Championship, which will hurt. Cincinnati has the second best pass defense in the country and has 18 interceptions. I think they can slow down this Alabama offense, at least by enough to stay within the spread. Then you have the Bearcats’ offense, which averages 39.2 PPG. Let’s not forget that Alabama’s defense has not been great in 2021. It allowed 41 pts in the loss to A&M.  The Tide had four close wins this year, against Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Florida, none of whom are as good as Cincinnati. I’m taking the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Oregon (9:15 ET): There was some concern earlier in the week on the Oregon side over players missing practice, but my view is this is too many points for a game where the favorite (Oklahoma) is dealing with numerous question marks itself. The Sooners’ lost HC Lincoln Riley right after a disappointing regular season concluded and Bob Stoops, who has spent the last several seasons as a TV commentator for FOX, will now be coaching the team for one night only. Stoops wearing the headset might be a fun “gimmick” for the talking heads, but I have my doubts as to how OU will play in this game.

Of course, Oregon also lost its HC (Mario Cristobal) right after the regular season as he jumped to Miami. Like Oklahoma, the Ducks’ chosen replacement is a well-known defensive coordinator, but it will be Bryan McClendon coaching here on an interim basis. The bloom seems to be off Oregon right now after two late season losses to Utah, one in the Pac 12 Championship, but I see that as a case of the Utes being a bad matchup. The only other time the Ducks lost this year was an overtime game, when they were short-handed, against Stanford. I love them getting this many points in the bowl. 

Oklahoma’s DC followed Riley to USC. On the field, the Sooners will be missing their top tackler and top three guys in sacks! There’s just no way they should be laying this many points. Don’t forget Oregon went to Ohio State and won earlier in the season and did so without DE Thibodeaux, who will be out here. Look for the Ducks’ offense, which averaged over 31 PPG, to make enough plays here to at least keep them within a generous number Wednesday night. Oklahoma certainly appears to be an overwhelming public favorite and that level of support is simply not justified. 10* Oregon

8* Iowa State (5:45 ET): I think this is one of the better December bowl matchups. We’ve got two teams that started the season ranked in the Top 10. While the perception is that Clemson (now #19) and Iowa State (now unranked) had disappointing years, the reality is that both squads are still in the Top 15 of my own personal power rankings. Iowa State, the preseason favorite to win the Big 12, suffered five losses by a total of 29 points and all four conference losses were decided on the final possession. I think, even without RB Breece Hall, the ‘Clones will be motivated to make it eight wins for the fourth time in Matt Campbell’s six seasons here in Ames. Take the points. 

I can’t say that I’m too confident in Clemson’s motivation here. This is the first time in a while that the Tigers find themselves in a December bowl. After six straight appearances in the College Football Playoffs, they had three regular season losses for the first time since 2014. This in a year where the ACC was really down. While no Clemson players are skipping the Cheez-It Bowl, Dabo Swinney’s coaching staff has taken a hit as he lost both coordinators in the last few weeks. While the Tigers did have a strong finish to the regular season, it was against a very soft schedule.

Without Hall, Iowa State’s offense will be challenged going against a Clemson defense that, statistically, is among the best in the country. But I’m unconvinced that we’ll see the same level of defense from Clemson here in the bowl. The Tigers’ offense ranked just 96th in the FBS this year as QB DJ Uiagalelei really struggled, filling in for Trevor Lawrence. Iowa State’s defense should not be overlooked as it allowed just 309 YPG and ranks 13th against the pass.  It all boils down to motivation and I think ISU is going to use this game to make a statement to the rest of the country. 8* Iowa State

8* Mississippi State (6:45 ET): The Liberty Bowl is a very interesting matchup as you have Mississippi State, coached by Mike Leach, taking on Texas Tech. Of course, once upon a time, Leach was the coach at Texas Tech (from 2000-09). In the build up for this game, Leach was quoted as saying, “They still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games. Maybe they’ll deliver the check.” So there’s still plenty of bad blood here. I think that MSU is going to want to win this game for their coach and they will win big. 

This is a bad matchup for the Texas Tech defense, which ranks 112th in the country against the pass. Opposing QBs completed 66.8% of their pass attempts against the Red Raider this season. It just so happens that no QB in the country had a higher completion percentage than Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who is at 75.1%. Rogers threw for at least 294 yards in every game and finished with a SEC-leading 4,449 yards and a 35-8 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs average 30.9 PPG on offense. 

Texas Tech also averages 30.0 PPG, but you’ve got to wonder about their motivation for this game. They’re being led by an interim HC (Joey McGuire), who has already accepted a coaching job elsewhere (La Tech). The Red Raiders did not have a strong finish to the regular season, losing four of their last five games. That’s quite different from Mississippi State, who ended on a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run. The Bulldogs are better than their record as three of their five losses came by three points or less. 8* Mississippi State

10* Denver (4:25 ET): Point differential. That’s what this play essentially boils down to for me. Both teams are 7-7. But the Broncos have a +42 YTD point differential. The Raiders are -77. That’s quite the difference. When a team is .500, you’d expect their number of points scored and allowed to be pretty close to even. Yet that’s not the case with either of these teams. Denver should have a better record. Las Vegas should have a much worse record.  I’m taking the better team. 

The Broncos also have revenge here for a 34-24 loss in Week 6. Total yardage was basically even in that game (424-421), but Denver was -4 in turnovers. 

If you’re a long-term follower of mine, then you know I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a strong indicator of future outcomes, not just in NFL but for all sports. Looking at the Raiders’ point differential, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose all of their remaining games. They could barely beat a COVID-ravaged Cleveland team last Monday. In six of the last seven games, this Raiders’ offense has scored 16 points or less. I just don’t think Las Vegas is a very good football team! 10* Denver

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): The Jaguars were actually a popular choice last week. They’d just fired the embarrassing Urban Meyer and were facing Houston. Unfortunately, it was “same old Jags” as they lost for a second time this season to the Texans, 30-16 as six-point chalk. I was one of those that made the mistake of taking Jacksonville in that spot. Call me stubborn, but I think *this* is now the week this struggling side “gets off the mat.” They are facing a Jets team that’s missing a lot of key personnel, including its head coach. 

The Jets have been just as miserable as the Jaguars this season. New York has one more win than Jacksonville, but also has a slightly worse YTD point differential. Last week saw the Jets suffer their third straight defeat, 31-24 at Miami. They’ve now been outscored by 178 points. The Jags have been outscored by 174. Those are the two worst point differentials in the sport. But the key is the Jets being without HC Robert Saleh as well as their three top receivers, a tight end and two guards. 

If the Jags, after a coaching change, can’t be the short-handed Jets, then I don’t know what to say. The Jets’ defense is the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin. It allows 30.6 points per game. So look for Jacksonville’s offense to score a season-high in points today. They have not scored more than 23 in any game all year. If they fail to score 24 against the Jets, they would be the first team since the 2010 Panthers to not score 24 points in their first 15 games of the season. The time is now for Jacksonville! 8* Jacksonville

8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams are now in first place in the NFC West following last night’s loss by Arizona. In order to stay there, they must defeat Minnesota here. Given what the Rams have done each of the last two weeks, it would be foolish to bet against them. Two weeks ago, despite being severely short-handed because of COVID, they were able to go on the road and beat the Cardinals 30-23 in front of a national TV audience. Then came Tuesday’s 20-10 win over Seattle. Lay the points here. 

An outbreak that once included 29 players is now down to four for the Rams and none of those four that remain on the COVID list are starters. Look for the Rams offense to have a big passing day here against a Vikings defense that is allowing 252.1 yards per game through the air. Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp now has 10 straight games with at least 90 yards receiving. Sean McVay’s defense turned in a fine effort Tuesday night, holding Seattle to not just 10 points, but only 214 total yards. 

Minnesota is also on a short week here. They won 17-9 in Chicago on Monday, but it was not a good performance as the offense gained less than 200 yards and went 5 of 17 on third down. They were outgained by the Bears 370-193. The Vikings were quite lucky to recover three fumbles in the game. WR Adam Thielen will be back this week, but RB Dalvin Cook has been ruled out and that is potentially more significant.  8* LA Rams

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday in New England. The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills, a famously windy affair where QB Mac Jones attempted only three passes. That win is the difference in the standings right now as New England enters this game at 9-5 while Buffalo is 8-6. But Mother Nature is not expected to play such a key role in today’s rematch and I think the better team (Buffalo) will rise to the top.

The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS as an underdog with Josh Allen as the QB. They are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs. In the first meeting, Buffalo was the team more adversely affected by the windy conditions as it severely limited what they could do in the passing game. Red zone inefficiency also played a role in the 14-10 loss. Late in the game, the Bills missed a field goal and turned it over on downs. Expect Allen to be a lot more effective this time around, even without receiver Cole Beasley (who is on the COVID-19 list). The Bills have averaged 29 points in the two games since losing to New England. 

Remember that the Patriots lost last week, 27-17 at Indianapolis. They were actually underdogs. The loss snapped a seven-game SU/ATS win streak. With Tennessee’s win on Thursday, the Pats have fallen into third place in the AFC playoff picture. This is an important game for them too, obviously. But the offense hasn’t been putting up big numbers and the defense won’t be able to slow down the Bills for a second time. 8* Buffalo

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Cardinals badly need to win this game. Not just because they’ve lost two straight and four of their last seven. The losing streak has resulted in them falling into a tie with Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West. Earlier in the year, when they were 7-0, the Cards had to figure they were a shoo-in for the top seed in the NFC. But now they are looking at possibly falling into a Wild Card spot as last week saw the “unthinkable” happen - a 30-12 loss in Detroit, a game that Arizona was favored to win by 13 points. 

The Cardinals’ opponents this week, Indianapolis, are trending in a much different direction. The Colts have won five of six, including a very impressive showing last Saturday (at home) vs. New England. But despite winning 27-17, QB Carson Wentz was abysmal against the Patriots, completing only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards. The Colts were outgained in that game, not just on a per play basis, but also 365-275 overall. Interestingly enough, they are 0-5 ATS coming off a game where they had less than 150 passing yards. 

On Thursday night, we all saw how one team (Tennessee) that was seemingly trending in the wrong direction beat a hot team (San Francisco). I believe the same will hold true here. The Cardinals are still higher than the Colts in my power ratings. Factoring that in plus the home field, they should be a larger favorite in this spot. Obviously, they’re going to be motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, Indy is off arguably its best win of the season and thus could be in store for a letdown. This is the first time Arizona has been off B2B losses this year. Indy is 3-9 ATS the L12 times it has been off B2B wins. 10* Arizona

10* Florida (7:00 ET): Call it a “hunch,” but the Gasparilla Bowl is probably NOT where either of these two once proud Floridian schools wanted to end their season. UCF, which went 35-4 SU from 2017-19 including a perfect 13-0 in ‘17, has now lost four games in each of the last two seasons. Losing QB Dillon Gabriel to a season-ending injury was the key “blow” this season, although it should be mentioned that the Golden Knights were 6-2 down the stretch without Gabriel. But the majority of those wins were racked up against the dregs of the AAC. Outside of Cincinnati, who blew UCF out 56-21, Florida will be the toughest opponent of the season. 

At 6-6, the Gators were probably one of the more disappointing teams in the country. It was only a year ago that they ranked sixth in the country under Dan Mullen. Mullen has been fired and the program will be “starting over” under Billy Napier, who was wooed away from Louisiana. Coaching the bowl game for Florida will be a mix of Mullen’s staff. I acknowledge not having QB Richardson and DE Carter hurts the Gators, but my power rankings still call this a Top 30 team in the country and they are simply way more talented than UCF is. 

I think it’s safe to say that a six-game ATS losing streak (for Florida) is what’s keeping this line so short. But again, UCF hasn’t beaten anyone of note since Boise State in the season opener. I think the fact that this is an “in-state rivalry game” will motivate the favorite as the players don’t want to head into a new regime having lost to a lesser Sunshine State school. QB Jones is going to enter the transfer portal. While he may not care about the future of football in Gainesville, he’s going to want to look good for whomever his next team will be. At the end of the day, the Gators are simply the much better team here and they are 6-2 ATS L8 as a bowl favorite. Thus, I’ll lay the points. 10* Florida

8* Missouri (8:00 ET): Well, there certainly seems like a lot of reasons to discount Missouri in this game. The Tigers aren’t very good at stopping the run (usually a problem when facing Army), their own starting running back (SEC’s leading rusher) is out and they’ll be breaking in a new starting QB. But, this is still a SEC team that has had ample time to prepare for what they’ll face on Wednesday night. As for Army, the disappointment of losing to Navy probably “soured” them on this game a bit. Take the points. 

If you look at who Army beat this year, it’s not exactly a “who’s who” of College Football. Liberty, UMass, Bucknell, Air Force, Miami OH, UConn, Western Kentucky and Georgia State were the victims. That list includes a FCS team and the two worst FBS teams. The Black Knights couldn’t run the ball vs. Navy, which was a surprise. I know that Navy runs the same offense, so they are uniquely suited to stop the triple option. But also think of the time Missouri has had to prepare to defend it. That’s key. 

Brady Cook will get his first career start tonight for the Tigers. Having just played 11 days ago, it’s going to be tough for Army to prepare for a new starting QB that they’ve never seen before. That brings me to my next point - Missouri has had far more time off to prepare for this game. They last took the field on Nov 26. They figure to come out a lot fresher in this Armed Forces Bowl and I think a hot start will - at the very least - result in an ATS win. With the line moving as much as it has, we’re getting good value on the dog. 8* Missouri

8* LA Rams (7:00 ET): Coming off their biggest win of the season - last Monday’s 30-23 triumph at Arizona - the Rams were thrown into disarray with 25 players having to be put into COVID-19 protocol as of Thursday. That resulted in this game with the Seahawks being pushed back until Tuesday. While it may seem risky to still lay points with Los Angeles in this spot, they’ll still have QB Matthew Stafford on the field tonight and I simply feel they are still much better than the 5-8 Seahawks, whom they defeated 26-17 back in Week 5 on a Thursday night. I took the Rams then and will play them again in the rematch. 

Russell Wilson’s return to the Seattle lineup has resulted in B2B wins, 30-23 over San Francisco and 33-13 over Houston. But this is not a good Seahawks team. They rank dead last in the league in yards per game allowed, making it almost improbable that they somehow have allowed the fifth fewest points. The offense is 28th in the league in yards gained and Wilson may not have WR Tyler Lockett (COVID) available to throw to. While Seattle has put up 30+ points in B2B games, let’s not forget how pathetic the offense had looked (even with Wilson back) in the three prior games. 

The Rams’ offense is first in the league in yards per play (6.2), fourth in scoring (28.2 PPG) and has scored 28 or more in six of the last eight games. Other than TE Higbee, it looks like HC Sean McVay will have his full complement of players on that side of the ball. Remember the Rams were short-handed when they went into Arizona and won last week. I consider them one of the top teams in the league and they’ve covered 23 of the last 35 conference games. 8* LA Rams

10* Kent State (3:30 ET): After a 1-3 SU start to the season (all three losses to P5 teams), Kent State was able to “dust itself off” and win the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. They were favored in the Conference Championship Game over Northern Illinois (by 3.5) but were outclassed in that contest, almost from the start, and ended up losing 41-23. Thus the Golden Flashes’ landing spot for the bowls is in Boise, ID for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, an annual battle between the MAC and Mountain West. With just one bowl win in program history (2019), it’s not like Kent State won’t be motivated here. 

Wyoming’s season got off to a great start as they were 4-0 heading into October with a win over MAC Champion Northern Illinois. But the Cowboys really sputtered down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games (though they did defeat eventual MWC Champ Utah State). It should be noted that the Pokes were favored only twice over those last eight games, both times by double digits, and on each occasion they lost outright. One of those losses was to lowly New Mexico. (The other was the regular season finale vs. Hawaii). Overall, Wyoming was just 1-4-1 ATS as chalk during the regular season. They barely beat Montana State (FCS) and UConn, winning those games by a FG or less. 

People may point to the fact Wyoming is 2-0 vs. the MAC in 2021 and also defeated its own conference champ in the regular season. But Kent State plus the points seems like the right call here. Should be noted that the Golden Flashes also beat Northern Illinois in the regular season. The rematch in the MAC Championship was their lowest scoring effort in conference play all season. This team comes in averaging 32.6 PPG (compared to just 23.2 for Wyoming). With offense being the key in these early bowl games, I see the underdog having the edge here. They are 8-2 ATS their L10 games off an ATS loss. 10* Kent State

10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but a COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns organization pushed it back 48 hours. There are obviously some key players missing for Cleveland, not to mention HC Kevin Stefanski, but I still see them beating Las Vegas at home. Both these teams are desperate for a win to remain relevant in the AFC playoff hunt, but I’ve got little faith in a Raiders team that has been outscored by 77 points this year, the 4th worst differential in the conference. Lay the points. 

Las Vegas is coming off an ugly 48-9 loss to Kansas City, which was the second time in four weeks they got blown out by the Chiefs. Those two losses obviously had a major impact on the aforementioned point differential, but the Silver and Black have also dropped five of their last six overall. The only win came on Thanksgiving Day, in overtime, against the Cowboys. That win was the only time in the last six games that the offense was able to score more than 16 points. In more than half their games this season, the Raiders have been held to 16 or less. 

Third stringer Nick Mullens is likely to be the Browns’ starting QB in this one. From 2018-20, Mullens made 16 starts for the 49ers, so he’s not “new to this.” I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is going to need to put up many points here. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in over half of its games this season and held the Ravens out of the end zone for three quarters last week. I already mentioned the Raiders’ offensive woes. Obviously, all the absences must be accounted for, but with the game being pushed back hopefully some of those Browns players that tested positive can return. I’m not a huge Baker Mayfield fan to begin with, so I don’t think he’ll be all that missed. 10* Cleveland

8* Tulsa (2:30 ET): Monday in Myrtle Beach is hardly the most “ideal” bowl destination, but both Tulsa and Old Dominion WANT to be here and not just because of the weather. Both teams finished the regular season strong; Tulsa with a three-game win streak and ODU with a five-game SU and ATS win streak. Those respective win streaks got both teams to 6-6 on the year, so making a bowl was clearly important to them. But while the finishes to the regular season may have been similar, I see a significant gap in talent between the two sides and will be laying the points with Tulsa. 

Now underdogs (and Overs) have clearly been the way to go so far in these early bowl matchups. But expect this one to be different, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned. Tulsa has outscored their opponents 98-54 during the three-game win streak. Four of their six losses this year came to Top 25 teams, including Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter of which they led (on the road!) in the 4Q. While it was somewhat of a disappointing regular season for the Golden Hurricane, after rallying to beat SMU 34-31 in the regular season finale, there’s no better way to cap things than with the program’s 1st bowl win since 2016. 

I do have to give credit to ODU for how they finished the regular season. But at one time, this was a 1-6 SU football team that looked to be going “nowhere fast.” Their five-game win streak saw them beat La Tech, FIU, Fla Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. Of that quintet of opponents, only one made a bowl (Middle Tennessee) and they were also a 6-6 team in the regular season. The Monarchs have no other wins over bowl eligible teams this season. Their run defense put up good numbers, but will struggle to stop Tulsa RB Shamari Brooks, who has more than 3600 rush yards in his career. 8* Tulsa

10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): It is looking like a near certainty that Tyler Huntley will be the starting QB here for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in last week’s 24-22 loss to the Browns and hasn’t practiced all week. While the loss of Jackson may make Baltimore a “less attractive option” in the minds of many bettors, I am seeing value here on the Ravens as a home dog. Huntley very nearly led his team back from a 24-6 halftime deficit last week. He also guided a 16-13 win at Chicago earlier in the season. Take the points!

Now Green Bay is the top ATS team in the league. They’ve covered 11 of 13 games this year, including a come from behind effort last week against Chicago. Things were not looking good for Packers’ bettors early on last Sunday night as the team trailed at halftime. But they stormed back to win 45-30 and improbably cover the double digit spread. That was at Lambeau though. All three Packers’ losses this season have come on the road - where their scoring average dips to 20.6 PPG. 

Now GB’s road numbers are a little skewed due to a Week 1 loss to the Saints (an outlier performance) and the game they played at Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers. That being said, this is too many points for them to be laying here. This line is a classic overreaction to Jackson’s absence. Jackson is a great player, but the Ravens also have a great defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS his L12 games as a home underdog with eight outright wins. Baltimore is also 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season. Almost all of their games end up close with five of the last six decided by six points or less. Only two teams in history have ever started a NFL season 12-2 ATS. 10* Baltimore

9* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer’s firing had an interesting effect on this number as the Jaguars are now bigger favorites to beat the Texans without their disgraced former head coach. My view is that the Jags are going to come out highly motivated to win this game. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were under Meyer, whose NFL coaching career will end with a 2-11 WL record. For this first game without Meyer, the Jags probably couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent. I’m laying the points! 

There are two teams that I have rated lower than Jacksonville in my own personal power ratings. One of them is the opponent here (the other is the Jets). Houston has a worse point differential than Jacksonville and the same 2-11 SU record. David Culley just feels like a lame-duck coach this season for the Texans, who are down to Davis Mills at QB. The team is 0-7 SU with Mills as the starter after losing 33-13 last week at home to Seattle. The Texans actually struck first in that game and then were thoroughly dominated after that. 

This is a revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-21 in Houston back in Week 1. It was their seventh straight loss to the Texans, which is quite embarrassing. It’s interesting to note that the Jaguars were favored in the Week 1 matchup. While that proved to be a “bad line,” it looks like we’re getting a bargain on them at home here. Houston has won just once since Week 1. You’ve got to believe the Jaguars’ players will want to win for interim HC Darrell Bevell to prove a point that they are better without Meyer. From the revenge angle to the new coach, lots of motivation here for the home side. 9* Jacksonville

10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): Two of the hottest teams in football meet Saturday night and both are coming off byes. I don’t think there’s any denying that the Colts are better than their 7-6 SU overall record. The team ranks seventh in the league in point differential, having outscored the opposition by 88 points. Now I am well aware that New England is not only #1 in the league in that department (+150 point differential), but is also on a 7-0 SU/ATS win streak. But the Colts have been a favorite of “sharp bettors” all season and this is a case where it’s right to fade what is likely to be a very “public dog” (that being the Patriots). 

Remember that Indianapolis started the year at 0-3 SU. Since then, they’ve gone 7-3 with two of the losses coming in overtime (both after blowing big leads) and the other coming by only seven points to the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Still fresh in everyone’s mind is New England’s win at Buffalo two weeks ago where QB Mac Jones only attempted three passes due to insanely windy conditions. But don’t forget that the Colts went to Buffalo a few weeks ago and absolutely trounced the Bills, 41-15 (as a seven-point underdog). 

As good as the Patriots have looked over the last two months, you’ve got to figure they are “due” to drop at least one game down the stretch. Looking at the remaining four games, this and next week’s home date with Buffalo are easily the two toughest matchups Bill Belichick’s team has left. New England is 6-0 SU on the road this year, but three of those wins came by four points or less. This game means A LOT more to the Colts, who trail the Titans by two games in the AFC South and really cannot afford another loss. The last time we saw them, they beat the Texans 31-0 and allowed only 141 total yards. The Texans are admittedly a horrible team, but a Colts offense (led by RB Taylor) that has struck for 30 or more points in seven of the last eight games will test this Patriots’ defense. 10* Indianapolis

8* UAB (3:30 ET): I think a lot of people may get caught up in the fact that BYU is ranked #13 in the country. But that ranking is a little generous to say the least. In all due respect to the contingent from Provo, I don’t consider the Cougars to be among the top 40 teams in the country! The SP+ rankings agree with me and also actually have BYU’s Independence Day Bowl opponent, UAB, rated higher! I’m not quite as high on the Blazers, who were champions of C-USA last season, but I do believe they are a live dog and capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points.

UAB is no stranger to bowl games as this will be their fourth consecutive season in one. Remember that the football program did not exist the two years prior! Looking at this past regular season, the Blazers very nearly defeated UTSA (who was undefeated at the time) and finished 8-4 SU overall. One of the losses was to Georgia. Their defense is really strong, giving up only 22.4 PPG.and it allowed 14 points or less on five different occasions. It’s hard to run on UAB as they give up only 104 rush yards per game. 

Much will be made of the fact that BYU went 5-0 SU against the Pac 12 during the regular season, including a 26-17 win over Rose Bowl participant Utah (early in the year). But two of those five wins were by four points or less. The Cougars were a little lucky in 2021 to go 4-0 SU in one-score games. UAB has a great running back in DeWayne McBride, but look for the defense is going to keep them in this one. The Blazers have covered four straight and six of their last seven games. 8* UAB

10* Fresno State (2:15 ET): I know that there won’t be a lack of motivation with UTEP, who is making its first bowl appearance since 2014. The Miners have been quite the story here in 2021, going 7-5, just their second winning season since 2005! They won only five games total in Dana Dimel’s first three seasons here and were 0-12 the year before his arrival. But of the 80 teams playing in bowls this year, UTEP is my lowest rated. Not only are they 0-5 SU/ATS L5 bowl appearances, but they went 1-4 SU/ATS vs. bowl teams this season with three of those losses coming by 17 points or more. I just don’t “see it” with this team. 

Now Fresno State does have some issues heading into the New Mexico Bowl, which is probably why the Bulldogs aren’t as large of a favorite here as my power ratings say they ought to be. After not making the Mountain West Conference Championship, they saw HC Kalen DeBoer bolt for the Washington job. Initially, it looked as if QB Jake Haener was going to follow DeBoer, but Haener changed his mind and withdrew from the transfer portal. But he may not get the start Saturday. Interim HC Lee Marks (who was the RB coach under DeBoer) has been “mum” on who the starting QB will be here.

I think the uncertainty over who will start at QB for Fresno State will end up benefiting the Bulldogs. They obviously know who the starter is. But UTEP is “in the dark.” FSU defeated its final two regular season opponents by a combined score of 74-16. They have wins over San Diego State and UCLA and only lost by seven at Oregon. While we aren’t sure what (or who) we’re getting at QB, we do know the Bulldogs’ run defense gives up just 127 yards per game and that the offensive line is very good. UTEP’s offense relies heavily on “the big play” and I don’t see them making enough of those here. 10* Fresno State

10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): A win tonight would give the Chargers a season sweep of the Chiefs and thus a “leg up” in the race for the division title. A Chargers win would also mean both teams are 9-5 SU. So you can see how important this one is. Either LA falls two games back with a split of the season series, or they are even with a season sweep. I know that the Chiefs - 6-0 SU L6 games and 4-0 ATS L4 - have been playing well of late. But so have the Chargers, who have scored 37 or more points in three of the last four games. 

Those offensive numbers will certainly be tested tonight by a Chiefs defense that has allowed exactly nine points in three consecutive games. But KC has not exactly been facing the top offensive teams during this stretch. Twice they’ve beaten the Raiders and other wins came against the Broncos, Giants and Rodgers-less Packers. Holding Dallas to just nine points WAS impressive. But I can’t see a similar defensive effort taking place against these Chargers, which has Justin Herbert and two receivers that will go over 1,000 yards this season. 

The Chiefs are surprisingly still being outgained this season on a per play basis. While it was back in Week 3 and Kansas City turned it over four times, the Chargers scored 30 in the first meeting and that was when they weren’t playing as well. The Chargers’ last three wins have been by an average of 13 PPG, but even that’s misleading as they led by as many as 17, 24 and 30 in those respective games. LA is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog. 10* LA Chargers

9* Chicago (8:20 ET): Going total contrarian on this one as Green Bay is the first double digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. It’s somewhat rare to see a DD fave in these primetime matchups, at least on SNF where it’s happened only eight times the previous decade. Those eight favorites went just 2-6 ATS. As bad as the Bears have looked this season, I can’t help but think this is an inflated number. At least Justin Fields is back at QB. Yes, I’m taking the points here. There’s always a sense of “pride” in these division games and I don’t see Chicago just “rolling over” in this one. 

Aaron Rodgers was not afraid to make his feelings known in the last meeting between these teams. “I own you” is what Rodgers told the Soldier Field faithful following a 24-14 win back in Week 6. First off, note that win was “only” by 10 points (less than the spread here). Secondly, might Rodgers’ comments come back to bite him? You’ve got to think the Bears will at least be motivated after being disrespected like that. Total yardage and first downs were actually pretty close in Chicago back October 17th. 

The Bears have just one win since losing to the Packers two months ago, but last week they actually outgained Arizona only to be undone by four turnovers. They also finished with a 26-14 edge in first downs! Fields definitely has a higher ceiling than “turnover machine” Andy Dalton. The Packers may be 10-2 ATS overall (including 5-0 at Lambeau), but they are due to drop a game at the betting window. 9* Chicago

8* NY Giants (4:05 ET): A change in playcallers has failed to provide any kind of spark for the struggling Giants’ offense - at least so far. Freddie Kitchens replaced Jason Garrett as the new OC two weeks ago, but the G-Men have scored a grand total of 22 points (including just one TD) since the change. They were held to season lows in points, total yards and time of possession last week against Miami. It doesn’t help that Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. But I think New York may surprise you this week, even with backup Mike Glennon at QB. This team has typically been reliable in the role of underdog. Take the points.

The Chargers are off an impressive 41-22 win at Cincinnati, but they strike me as the kind of team that should never be laying this many points. Note that they nearly blew all of a 24-0 lead last week before pulling away late. Prior to that, the team had covered just one of five games with the two SU wins coming by three and four points. QB Justin Herbert will be without his top receiver this week as Keenan Allen has landed on the COVID-19 list. Coming off the surprisingly big win over the Bengals and with a huge division showdown vs. the Chiefs on deck, this is a tricky spot for Los Angeles. 

The Giants, as alluded to above, have done well in the past as a road underdog. They are 9-4 ATS in that role under HC Joe Judge and 19-7 ATS L26 going back further than that. The Chargers aren’t just 1-4 ATS L5 as favorites; they’ve never been more than a 6.5-point favorite in any game this season. They’ve got the worst homefield advantage in the league and are 5-13-1 ATS L19 as home chalk. LA’s YTD point differential is still negative while the Giants are outscored by only 5.2 PPG. I think the Giants’ offense can find success here as the Chargers’ D still ranks 31st against the run and 31st on third downs. 8* NY Giants

10* Carolina (1:00 ET): The Panthers’ 3-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they are 5-7 SU/ATS coming out of the bye. This is a team that’s finished with just five wins each of the last two seasons. If they want to beat that number in 2021, this might be their last chance to do so. That’s because the final four weeks of the season will see Carolina face Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans. Three of those games are on the road. Given that upcoming schedule and the fact that (now former) OC Joe Brady was dismissed during the bye week, I’m expecting an “inspired effort” here from the Panthers. 

Atlanta may have the same 5-7 SU record as Carolina, but I’d argue the Falcons are a significantly worse football team. Point differential certainly paints that picture as Atlanta has been outscored this season by 116 points. Carolina is only -17 in point differential. While the Panthers are fresh off a bye, the Falcons are playing for an eighth straight week. Last week marked the Dirty Birds’ fifth double digit loss of the season. This team is actually ranked dead last in the league in DVOA and struggles in all three phases of the game. The bottom line is that my power ratings say Carolina should be laying closer to SIX points on Sunday. 

I took the Panthers in the first meeting of the season, which they won 19-13 in Atlanta as 2.5-point dogs. They ended up outgaining the Falcons 332-213 thanks to a substantial edge in the ground game. Carolina ran for 200+ yards that day. While they no longer have RB Christian McCaffery (out for year) at their disposal, that’s okay. McCaffery didn’t play in that first matchup either. It was Chubba Hubbard leading the way. From Weeks 4-8, Hubbard was second in the NFL in rush attempts and ninth in yards. The Panthers also now have Cam Newton playing QB. The Falcons’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Panthers are fifth in the league in pass defense. Specifically, they’re very good at defending tight ends, so I’d expect Kyle Pitts (two catches, 13 yards in 1st meeting) to not have a big day. Lay the short number. 10* Carolina

8* Houston (1:00 ET): I understand that few, if any, want to touch the Texans right now, let alone when they have Davis Mills quarterbacking. But are we really convinced that Seattle should be laying this many points on the road, against anyone? I guess this will be the test. The Seahawks are off a 30-23 win over San Francisco last week as 2.5-point dogs. But that was at home and they were aided by both a 73-yard TD on a fake punt and a safety. The Seahawks are 2-0 vs. the 49ers this year, but 2-8 SU against the rest of their schedule. Last week was just their second win since Week 4. I’m taking the points. 

Just how odd is it to see a 4-8 SU team favored by seven or more on the road? Well, per ESPN Stats & Info, Seattle is the first team since 1966 with a win percentage of .333 or worse to be laying seven or more on the road in the month of December! Also, keep in mind the fact that the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS their last five tries as a favorite and have also lost outright four times. They are 1-7 ATS in their L8 games as a road favorite going back to last year. 

I’m not going to look you in the eye and tell you that Mills is good. But he’s no worse than Tyrod Taylor has been at QB for Houston. Before getting steamrolled 31-0 by a good Colts team last week, the Texans previous three games had all been decided by single digits. They beat the Titans 22-13 on the road. The two losses were by seven and eight points. Just “hold your nose” and take the points here as I don’t think a defense that gives up nearly 400 YPG and just lost Jamal Adams for the season should be laying this many points. 8* Houston

8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): Despite what the records may say, I believe the Vikings are a better football team than the Steelers. Minnesota may be 5-7 SU, but (unlike the Steelers) they can actually claim a POSITIVE YTD point differential, albeit a small one (at +3). The Vikes’ seven losses have all been by eight points or fewer. Four have been decided on the final play of the game, including a pair of OT losses. Last week may have been the new nadir as the Vikes fell 29-27 to the previously winless Lions. That was a game where Mike Zimmer’s team was favored by a TD on the road, had a 426-372 edge in total yards and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The defense simply could not get the last stop that Zimmer needed. 

So, at this point, I’m pretty much willing to “dig my heels in” and let it be known that I don’t think Pittsburgh is a very good team. Sure, they beat the Ravens last week to move to 6-5-1 on the year. But the Steelers have been outscored this season by 42 points. They are the only team in the NFL to have a winning record and negative point differential. While a bulk of that negative point differential stems from a 41-10 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, it’s also true that the Steelers do not have a single victory this season by more than eight points. Their six victories have been by a total of 26 points. Bottom line: I do NOT believe this team is going to make the playoffs. I want to play against them here. 

The defense may have let them down last week, but the Vikings are a lot stingier here at home. A lot stingier, in fact. On the road, Minnesota allows 29.2 PPG. That’s second most in the NFL. But at home, they allow only 19.8 PPG, which is in the top 10. It’s that defensive improvement that allows me to look past the potential absences of WR Adam Thielein and RB Dalvin Cook on Thursday. The Steelers’ offense, which averages only 20.3 PPG and has an aging Ben Roethlisberger at QB, isn’t very good. And the last two times the Steelers have gone on the road, their defense has surrendered 41 points in both games! The Vikings moved the ball fine w/o Thielen and Cook last week. My power ratings do say that the Vikings are the better team here. So they probably should be laying more than a field goal. But with all but one of their games having been decided by eight points or less, I feel more comfortable simply playing them on the money line. They WILL win this game. 8* Minnesota (MONEY LINE)

10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): After a weak Sunday slate, we’ve certainly got something to “sink our teeth into” here as New England faces Buffalo on Monday Night Football. These are the two top teams in my own personal power rankings. Winners of six straight (SU and ATS), the Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. Last time we saw them, they blew out the Titans 36-13. That was their third straight win by 23+ points. But it would be unwise to disregard what the Bills have done this season. They were the Super Bowl favorite not even a month ago. I’m going to lay the short number in this one.

What’s hurt the perception of Buffalo over the last month is two confounding losses. One was at Jacksonville, by a score of 9-6, and I still have no explanation for what happened there. A 41-15 loss to the Colts two weeks ago was easier to explain as the Bills were -4 in turnovers in that game. Despite losing by 26, they actually had a slight edge in yards per play. It was a strong bounce back game Thanksgiving Night against New Orleans as the Bills went on the road and won 31-6 as 6.5-point road favorites. With 10 days between games, I expect the Bills to be sharp on their home field tonight. 

You’ve got to respect New England’s 5-0 SU road record. However, they’ve gone off as the favorite in four of those five games. So you can’t be too surprised by their success. The only time they haven’t been favored on the road was against the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the league. The other four road wins were against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. Buffalo’s defense, which is #1 in total yards allowed, should make Mac Jones “look like a rookie” tonight in what amounts to a statement game for the reigning AFC East Champs. New England is “due” to lose here. 10* Buffalo

9* Denver (8:20 ET): I think that this spread is way too high given these two AFC West teams have nearly identical YTD point differentials. Denver has outscored their opponents by 32 points this season while Kansas City is +31. I took the Broncos last week and as a slight home dog they delivered an impressive outright win, 28-13 over the Chargers. That has them at 6-5, tied with the Chargers and Raiders for second place in the division, one game behind the first place Chiefs. I’m taking the points here.

Chiefs HC Andy Reid has been profitable in his career when off a bye, but he’s just 1-3 ATS the L4 times in that situation. Going back to last year, Kansas City has been a disaster at the betting window, going just 6-19 ATS the L25 games. Prior to the bye, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys 19-9. But those were two of their biggest wins all season. Before that, they had just two double digit wins and both came on the road against NFC East teams. At home, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season and averaging only 21.5 PPG.

Believe it or not, this will be just the fourth time this year that Denver is an underdog. I already mentioned cashing in on them last week at home vs. the Chargers. But I also had them +10 in Dallas back on November 7th when they won outright 30-16. This is a huge game for the Broncos as they’ve lost 11 straight times to the Chiefs, many of them blowouts. They aren’t looking to get blown out on national TV. A defense that allows the league’s fewest number of trips into the red zone should - at the very least - help the Broncos stay within the number. 9* Denver

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): While I’m not going so far as to predict a Bears outright victory here, I do believe they can keep the game close at home. They’re coming off a “mini-bye” as Monsters of the Midway last played on Thanksgiving when they defeated Detroit 16-14 as three-point favorites. They may not have covered the spread, but HC Matt Nagy (on the hot seat) will gladly take the SU win as it snapped a five-game losing skid. The Bears’ last three games have been decided by a total of seven points.

Arizona is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road. Winning every road game is tough enough. Covering them all is very rare. The 9-2 Cardinals are coming off their bye, but QB Kyler Murray remains a “gametime decision” as the team looks to be cautious given Murray’s injury history. They probably think they don’t need him to beat the Bears, especially after backup Colt McCoy led a 23-13 “upset” in Seattle two weeks ago. The Cards are actually 2-1 with McCoy as the starter. My view is that if Murray does play, we’re going to get a better number. So you may want to wait closer to kickoff to bet this one.

Andy Dalton will start for the Bears. Not inspiring, but he threw for 317 yards last week. It was the first 300+ yard day by a Bears QB since Nick Foles last season. Also, RB David Montgomery is back. Look for edge-rusher Robert Quinn to pressure whomever Arizona’s QB ends up being. I just can’t see the Cardinals winning a seventh straight road game by double digits. Only two other teams (in NFL HISTORY) have done it six times. In addition to Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins is also a game-time decision. Hold your nose and take the points in this one. 8* Chicago

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): With the Bengals favored by only three points at home, oddsmakers are essentially saying they see these teams as “even” on a neutral field. I have a different view. After B2B impressive wins (over the Raiders and Steelers), Cincinnati has a +83 YTD point differential. That’s third best in the AFC, trailing only the Patriots and Bills. Don’t forget the Bengals also blew out the Ravens, 41-17 back in Week 7. That’s a Ravens team that blew out the Chargers 34-6 the week prior. Los Angeles, despite being 6-5 SU, comes into this game with a -20 YTD point differential.

I chose to fade the Chargers last week and that ended up being a wise decision. They went to Denver as 2.5-point favorites and lost outright 28-13. Despite outgaining the Broncos, LA never led and trailed most of the way by double digits. More bad news is the fact this just isn’t the Chargers “time of year.” In Weeks 10 through 13, they are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS. It gets worse as they are also 1-7 SU/ATS coming off a division loss. The fact that this team has been outscored tells me they aren’t as good as their record. The defense really struggles to stop the run (164 YPG allowed on the road) and has given up an average of 31.3 PPG the L7 weeks.

You can look for the Bengals’ offense, which has scored 31+ points in five of its last six games, to take advantage of that suspect Chargers’ defense. Also note that this is an early start for the road team (10 AM West Coast time), which is a disadvantage. The last time the Chargers played a 1 PM ET game was … the blowout loss to Baltimore. They are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the road. That just won’t cut it against a Bengals team that is one of the most improved in the league this year. The Cincinnati defense has allowed just 23 points in the L2 games. 10* Cincinnati

8* Iowa (8:00 ET): This is a very tricky spot for #2 Michigan as they are off the emotional win over Ohio State (1st time beating the Buckeyes since 2011) and now find themselves as double digit favorites over a tough Iowa team. All the Wolverines need to do here is win and they are on to the College Football Playoff. But winning by double digits against a team that is 10-2 SU with six straight victories over ranked opponents will not be easy to do. I’m taking the points here as favorites are on a 2-8 ATS run in Big 10 Championship Games, including 0-5 when it’s not Ohio State. 

Michigan is ranked #2 in the country right now, but so was Iowa at one point earlier in the year. That was pre-CFP rankings, but it’s still worth noting. While the Hawkeyes were actually underdogs to a 3-8 Nebraska team last week, they’ve never gotten more than four points - in any game - from the oddsmakers this season. I know that they are not the prettiest team (outgained in five of the last six games) and I was actually on the other side (Nebraska) last Friday. But an additional day between games and a stout defense should keep this one close throughout. 

Michigan has been very good at the betting window thus far. In fact, they have the best ATS record in the country at 10-2 (4-0 L4). But this is arguably the most pressure they’ve had to deal with all season. It’s their first ever Big 10 Championship Game appearance and I just don’t see the favorite scoring enough to cover this number. The running game that was so effective last week vs. Ohio State now faces a top 15 defense in rush yards allowed. Teams off B2B ATS wins heading into Conference Championship Games are just 42.1% ATS all-time. 8* Iowa

8* Cincinnati (4:00 ET): There is obviously a TON of pressure on #4 Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are looking to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff. They are 11-0 and ranked #4, so all they probably need to do here is to win the game straight up. But why leave things to chance? If Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma State all win today, then the Bearcats are probably “sweating” on Selection Sunday. However, a big win from Cincy on Saturday would essentially render all other results irrelevant to their plight and guarantee them a spot in the top four. So I’m laying the points. 

 The fact that this American Conference Championship Game is taking place at (historic) Nippert Stadium (where Cincy has won 26 in a row) is being underrated in my eyes. This season has seen the Bearcats go 6-0 SU at home with the average margin of victory being 32.5 points per game. Now they’re obviously not playing teams as good as Houston every week. But this will be just the fourth time this season that Cincinnati is favored by fewer than two touchdowns. They are 3-0 ATS previously, beating Notre Dame and Indiana on the road and SMU here at home. All three wins were by double digits.

With their own 11-game win streak, Houston is seemingly a “trendy dog” in this matchup. Normally, I gravitate towards the underdog, but not when they’re trendy like this. The last two times Cincinnati has faced Houston, the Bearcats have won by a combined 43 points. It was 38-10 LY here at Nippert Stadium as the home team finished with a massive 510-282 edge in total yardage. Houston has failed to cover in five straight December/January games and I just don’t think they are on Cincinnati’s level. My power ratings say this spread should be closer to two touchdowns, so I’ll lay the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Alabama (4:00 ET): I think we can all agree that Georgia was the best team in the country during the regular season. The #1 ranked Bulldogs trailed only four times all year, only once after the first quarter and never in the second half. They had a 14+ point halftime lead in 10 of their 12 games, including each of the last five. They come into the SEC Championship Game fresh off their third shutout season, a 45-0 win over Georgia Tech as 35-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, the Dawgs have been successful at the betting window (8-4 ATS) as well, but they are about to encounter their toughest test of 2021. I look at this line and think it’s a big mistake to be doubting Nick Saban this much. 

#3 Alabama will be an underdog here for just the second time in its last 165 games. This seems to be the first time in seemingly FOREVER that public sentiment seems to have shifted AGAINST Saban and the Crimson Tide. I think a lot of that has to do with last week’s close call against Auburn, a 24-22 win that went to four overtimes. The Tide were a strong fade for me in the Iron Bowl as I thought the 20.5-point spread was way too high for a rivalry game. But it should be noted they outgained Auburn 388-159. Again, given the Tide’s resume, doubting them here seems foolish to me. An outright win by the dog seems more likely here than a blowout loss, especially with Bama having beaten Georgia six straight times, including twice in the SEC Championship Game. 

Taking the points here also seems prudent given the situation as it relates to the College Football Playoff. Alabama probably needs to win this game. It is possible that they could remain in the top four even with a loss, but it would have to be a close loss. Georgia is trying to protect the #1 seed, but is already assured of being in the playoff no matter what. So there’s a greater sense of urgency on the Crimson Tide sideline. Much is being made over the Tide’s ability to protect QB Bryce Young against the #1 ranked UGA defense. But I think that Bama’s defense, led by Will Anderson Jr (leads the country in sacks and TFL) can put pressure on Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. 10* Alabama

8* UTSA (7:00 ET): Bettors REALLY seem eager to “write off” UTSA now that the Roadrunners are no longer unbeaten. There is no denying the fact that last week’s 45-23 loss to a hot North Texas team (that was also looking to become eligible) was a bad showing from the West Division Champs of C-USA. But “writing off” a team that won its first 11 games and is playing for a conference championship on its home field seems like a mistake. With UTSA moving from slight favorite to home dog, I’m taking the points Friday night. The Roadrunners are 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of 22.2 PPG! 

Western Kentucky, the champs of C-USA’s East Division, is a team deserving of respect. But even after seven straight wins and going 5-0 ATS L5 games, the Hilltoppers probably should not be favored here. None of those seven straight wins have been against teams with winning records. Two were against 6-6 teams (Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee) while the rest were against the dregs of Conference USA. It should be noted that WKU’s last loss came at the hands of UTSA, 52-46 in Bowling Green. With the Hilltoppers losing that game outright as a home favorite, I don’t see how they are now favored on the road. 

Though an unbeaten season was on the line, last week seemed like a “flat spot” for UTSA. They were coming off a thrilling 34-31 home win over UAB (thanks to a last second TD) that clinched them a spot in this C-USA Title Game. So, in essence, the Roadrunners really had nothing to play for in Denton. It was rainy and three early fumbles against proved to be killers as they fell behind 17-3 in the first quarter. Now they’re back at home and I expect an offense that has averaged “only” 28 points the L3 games to get back on track against a WKU defense they hung 52 points and 564 total yards on in the first meeting. Also, at home, UTSA’s defense is allowing just 13.0 PPG. 8* UTSA

8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): The Browns were 0-7 ATS in division games under HC Kevin Stefanski, but then they blew out Cincinnati, 41-16 (as 1-pt road dogs) three weeks ago. That was another game where the sharp money was seemingly on them, despite being off less than a stellar performance. Before beating the Bengals, the Browns had lost 15-10 to the Steelers. Here they are off a win, albeit an unimpressive one, 13-10 (as 13.5 point chalk) over the winless Lions. I think Cleveland will surprise you in this spot. 

Baltimore has been a pretty lucky team this season. They are 7-3 SU and lead the AFC North, but that’s thanks in no small part to a 5-1 SU record in one-score games. There have been four games decided by three points or less and the Ravens have won all them. The latest was last week, 16-13 over Chicago, where the Ravens were outgained 353-299. I know there was no Lamar Jackson in that game, but the Ravens very nearly lost. It was the FOURTH time this year they got the go-ahead score in the final minute. Twice this year they’ve come back from a double digit deficit to win in overtime.

Cleveland was leading 13-0 last week at the half. The offense did nothing in the second half as QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% and continues to struggle. But the only real mistake made by the Browns’ defense last week was giving up one long TD run. The Lions’ FG came after a 9-yard drive. Cleveland is healthy again at RB, which is the key to their offensive success. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in six different games this season, including four of the last five. Baltimore is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite thus far. Take the points. 8* Cleveland 

10* LA Rams (4:25 ET): This line has certainly shifted during the week, but I think the line move is warranted. The game might be in Lambeau Field (where it will be cold), but the Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game after heading into the bye on a two-game losing streak. Due to COVID and a toe injury, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has not been able to practice regularly the last three weeks. I believe the Rams are the better team here and think they’ll show it on Sunday. 

I faded Green Bay last week. Despite them playing nearly flawlessly, I came away with a winning ticket as the Vikings pulled a 34-31 upset, thanks to a GW field goal as time expired. That snapped what had been a record-setting 9-game ATS win streak for the Packers. My view is they are still due to “give some back.” I say this based on the fact they only have a +33 point differential, despite their 8-3 SU record. I just don’t think the Pack are as good as their record would seem to indicate.

This is also a big-time revenge game for the Rams, who are 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings with the Packers, including a playoff loss last January. Green Bay has won six of those previous seven meetings outright. But the Rams are not only rested this time, but have also upgraded their roster with the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.  Green Bay is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and could struggle to protect Rodgers in this matchup. Having not had their bye yet (comes next week), the Packers could be somewhat gassed, especially compared to a rested opponent. 10* LA Rams

9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road. 

Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio.

The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert.  Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points.

The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week.

New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee

8* USC (10:30 ET): It’s been an ugly season at USC. Clay Helton was fired after a 42-28 loss to Stanford and since that time, there’s been little in the way of improvement. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS their last five games, losing four of them straight up. The lone win was against Arizona and last week may have been a new low as they were crushed 62-33 by rival UCLA here at the Coliseum. Looking back, can you believe this team was actually FAVORED against Utah? 

The fact the Trojans were home favorites against the Utes only underscores what a disappointing season this has been in Southern California. USC is in danger of its second losing season in three years. Before that, they had not had a losing year since 2000. But a strong finish, unlikely as it may seem, would get the Trojans to a bowl game. They have to win these last two games, mind you. Beating #13 BYU may seem unlikely, but I do see plenty of value on the home dog at this price. My power ratings have this line much closer to a pick ‘em. 

I do not think for a second that BYU is the 13th best team in the country. My power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 40. The Cougars are 4-0 SU against Pac 12 teams this season, but all four wins were by 10 points or less. They’ve been beating up on some weak teams down the stretch, like Idaho State and Georgia Southern the last two weeks. I just think USC is better than what it's shown on the field this season and in the final home game, I expect them to “show up.” They’ve got a good running game and that should keep them in this one. Take the points. 8* USC

9* West Virginia (7:00 ET): I understand that Kansas has been more “competitive” of late, with a win over Texas and a three-point loss to TCU. But WVU must win here in order to become bowl eligible and I don’t see them taking it easy on the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers have won seven straight times in this particular “rivalry,” six of those coming by double digits. My power ratings have this spread north of three touchdowns, so I’ll gladly lay a hair over two. 

Kansas is still last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and defense. They are also last in total yards on both sides of the ball. So they’ve got a long way to go in terms of being competitive on a regular basis, even if 1st year HC Lance Leipold has them trending in a positive direction. Before the last two weeks, the Jayhawks had lost eight straight double digit games, all but one coming by 19 points or greater. They’ve been outscored on average by 22.8 PPG this season and that number grows to 26.0 PPG in conference action. 

West Virginia showed last week that it was still interested in making it to a bowl. They beat Texas 31-23 in the Morgantown finale and had 459 yards of total offense. QB Doege leads the Big 12 in passing yards and should have a field day here against a KU defense that has surrendered 52 or more points four different times in 2021. The Mountaineers’ defense may not have to worry about facing Jayhawks RB Devin Neal, who injured his ankle LW vs. TCU. Lay the points. 9* West Virginia

10* Louisiana (4:00 ET): I realize that Louisiana has the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Appalachian State) on deck next week, but I’m not concerned with the “lookahead factor” here at all. The Ragin Cajuns are a vastly superior side compared to rival LA Monroe and this spread is about a touchdown too low. LA Monroe might not be the worst team in the Sun Belt, but they are close. The Warhawks have been underdogs of 23.5 points or more six times in 2021. Why not here? 

Now it may have something to do with an incredible trend in this rivalry, known as the “Battle of the Bayou.” Over the last 22 years, the road team has gone 19-2-1 ATS! But let’s not forget who won last year. That would be Louisiana and it was by a score of 70-20. That was the 11th SU win by the Ragin Cajuns in the last 13 meetings. That trend that favors the road team is due to go “the other way,” sooner rather than later and 2021 feels like the right time for that to begin. 

Louisiana is on a 10-game win streak (only loss was to Texas in the season opener). Some of the wins have been close, but they just clobbered Liberty by 28 last week on the road. This Ragin Cajun team has won 15 straight over SBC West foes under HC Billy Napier and is looking for its first perfect conference record as a Sun Belt member. So they are going to come out motivated on Saturday. They want the highest ranking possible for bowl purposes. This spread should be four touchdowns, not three. 10* Louisiana

8* Auburn (3:30 ET): I understand that QB Bo Nix is out for the season and that the Tigers have lost three straight. But this is too high of a line for the Iron Bowl, a rivalry game that has seen the home team win eight of the last nine meetings, including five straight. Going back further, the home team is on a 13-4 ATS run in Iron Bowls. Alabama has lost its last two trips to Jordan-Hare, 26-14 as a five-point favorite and 48-45 as a three-point favorite. As per usual, Auburn will treat the Iron Bowl as their “Super Bowl” and I don’t see them being blown out. Bama will win, but take the points. 

Alabama obviously can’t lose here, but their focus is more likely to be on next week’s SEC Championship Game vs. #1 Georgia. If the Crimson Tide win these next two games, then they’re back in the CFP. My view is there’s no fear of actually losing to Auburn, so this is a classic “trap” spot. The Tide have been by no means “rolling” their last two SEC games, both of which were decided by seven points or less. They beat LSU by six and Arkansas by seven. The defense allowed almost 500 total yards last week. 

Nix’s replacement is TJ Finley, a transfer from NC State. While he wasn’t all that great the last three quarters against South Carolina last week, that was a road game. Early on, he led two touchdown drives in that game. Finley would be well-served to hand the ball off to RB Tank Bigsby, who has five 100+ yard games this season. My power ratings say this number should be closer to +12, so expect Auburn to surprise the linesmakers a bit in this one as Alabama looks ahead to next week’s SEC Championship. 8* Auburn  

8* Florida (12:00 ET): This used to be one of the premier matchups of every College Football season. But that was 20 years ago. Now Florida State and Florida are both 5-6 SU and fighting for the right JUST TO GO to a bowl. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, meaning an interim (Greg Knox) will be coaching. Only the winner here gets to go to a bowl. While many are being quick to write off the Gators, Florida State just isn’t very good and given the series history, the home team should be laying more points here. 

The Gators were 2-0 vs. Florida State under Mullen. The schools did not meet last year because of COVID-19, which was probably just fine as far as the Seminoles were concerned. Not only were they 3-6 SU last year, but the ‘Noles had previously lost to the Gators 40-17 in 2019 and 41-14 in 2018. The side that has been favored has won the last five Sunshine Showdowns and covered 16 of the last 20. Florida is 4-1 SU in Gainesville this year and the last two games here, they’ve put up a total of 112 points. 

The Gators are just 1-4 SU their L5 games (0-5 ATS) but that’s with two close losses on the road (LSU, Missouri). Florida State has been trending the opposite way, winning five of its last seven. But it’s hard for me to believe the Seminoles are capable of pulling a third straight outright upset. The L2 weeks have seen them beat Miami and Boston College, both by only three points. The Noles’ actually have a trio of three-point wins this season. Homefield advantage is the difference in this one. 8* Florida

10* Colorado (4:00 ET): So #19 Utah is off its biggest win of the season, a 38-7 beatdown of Oregon that assured the Utes a place in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game. There is a decent shot that game could be a rematch with the Ducks. But first comes this minor piece of business, the regular season finale where they are huge favorites over Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing to play for here, but that didn’t stop them last week from upsetting Washington 20-17 as a 6.5-point dog. It would be foolish to expect a similar result here, but the Buffs should keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. 

Last week was actually the second upset in three weeks by Colorado. Earlier, also in Boulder, they beat Oregon State 37-34 as an 11.5-point dog. That’s a pretty impressive win, quite frankly. Now the road has been less kind with CU yet to win a single time away from home this season. But catching Utah the week after its biggest win of the season is a favorable situation. The Buffaloes may have been outgained badly last week by Washington, but finding a way to win when you’re 2 of 13 on third down is pretty impressive. I expect the offense to be more efficient on third down here. 

This is just a classic letdown spot, plain and simple. I know Utah has been rolling, but my power ratings say this spread should be below three touchdowns. So there’s value with the road dog, particularly because they’ll at least be motivated to keep it close against a rival they’ve lost to four years in a row, the last three losses all coming by 17 points or greater. At the very worst, look for the “back door” to be open Friday night in Salt Lake City where the Utes can’t possibly match their intensity from last week. 10* Colorado 

8* Nebraska (1:30 ET): What a trying season it’s been in Lincoln for Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers. Did you know - that despite a 1-7 SU conference record - Nebraska actually has a positive point differential in Big 10 games? How is that even possible, you ask? Well, on October 2nd, they beat Northwestern 56-7. The Cornhuskers’ seven losses in Big 10 play this year have been by a total of 42 points, none of them exceeding a nine-point margin. That is insane and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like it before. I think speaks volumes that Nebraska is favored here, even if it’s ever so slightly, against a team that at one point was ranked as high as #2 in the country.

Iowa has since slipped to 16th after suffering B2B bad losses to Purdue and Wisconsin last month. Those losses were by a combined 37 points, almost equal to the margin of Nebraska’s seven conference defeats. The Hawkeyes have since righted the ship with three straight wins, but two were by just five points (against N’western and Minnesota) and even last week Kirk Ferentz’s team was outgained (312-255) in a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes were really lucky during their 6-0 SU start to the season as they forced a lot of turnovers. (Note they were -6 in TO’s in the two games they lost). 

Nebraska has not beaten Iowa since 2014 with the last three losses - predictably - all coming by six points or less. Frost has been absolutely “snake-bit” in close games during his tenure here with the Cornhuskers going 5-19 SU when the final score is decided by seven points or less. I think it’s time for him to win one. I know that the Cornhuskers have nothing to play for here (except pride!) and QB Martinez will miss the game. But Iowa’s offense is BAD and has been outgained in five consecutive games! Frost deserves this one. 8* Nebraska

8* New Orleans (8:20 ET): For the first time since 2016, the Saints have lost three in a row. Now if you are a regular client of mine, that shouldn’t surprise you. I said to fade New Orleans last week and that turned out to be a good bet as they lost 40-29 to the Eagles. Really, things weren’t even as close as that final score makes it seem. The Saints fell behind 33-7 after three quarters and were clearly outclassed from the get-go. But I should mention how turnovers played a key role in that outcome. The Saints had three of them, one of which was an INT that was returned for a TD. They actually outgained the Eagles, slightly, on a per play basis for the game. The key for Philly was having three scoring drives (besides the pick-six) begin in Saints’ territory. What I’m saying is - don’t write off New Orleans just yet. 

Especially not here at home. Last week marked the first time in five games this season that they did NOT cover as an underdog. They’d won three of the previous four outright. Of course, last week’s game was on the road. I remind you of that because the Saints are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home underdog. They are also the only team in the league to alternate ATS wins and losses all season. If that trend holds here, that means they’ll cover the spread. Going back to last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS off its previous six ATS losses. 

Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five games, including an embarrassing outright loss to Jacksonville a few weeks ago. As embarrassing as that defeat to the Jags was, last week’s 41-15 thrashing at the hands of the Colts may have been their nadir. While the Bills still are near the top of my power ratings, I think they’re laying too many points in this Thanksgiving night matchup. The spread should be under a FG, so I think there’s value here on the home dog, who has seen three of its five losses come by six points or fewer. 8* New Orleans

8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): It speaks volumes that the last place team in the MAC West (Western Michigan) is favored here (on the road, no less!) against the team that has already sewn up the division title, that being Northern Illinois. Perhaps part of that is NIU potentially looking forward to next week’s MAC Championship Game against whomever wins the East Division (will be Miami or Kent State). But the reality of the matter is that the Huskies aren’t a very good team. Despite being division champs - and an 8-3 overall SU record - they have a -20 point differential for the season! 

Now part of that is due to the non-conference slate, which included a 63-10 loss to Michigan. But even still, the Huskies’ YTD point differential in MAC games is only +20. This despite having a 6-1 conference record! Not only do they have four wins by two points or less this season, including THREE one-point victories, but last week’s game vs. Buffalo was an OT affair. Northern Illinois’ largest win of the season over an FBS foe was eight points against lowly Bowling Green. They have arguably been the “luckiest” team in all of College Football in 2021. 

As for Western Michigan, they suffered a one-point LOSS to rival Eastern Michigan last week. That was yet another game where the Broncos came in as road favorites. I faded them, thinking the number was too high, which it clearly was. But the Broncos did end up with an edge in total yards (485-422) and were up 21-9 in the third quarter. This is a team that earlier in the year went to Pitt and won 44-41! Unlike Northern Illinois, WMU has a positive point differential this season. Though already bowl eligible, getting a 7th win would be huge for the Broncos as it would probably ensure they actually go to a bowl game (in the past, there have been some six-win MAC teams not selected by a bowl). Before the season, many thought WMU would win the MAC West and NIU (winless in 2020) would finish last! Lay the points. 8* Western Michigan

9* Seattle (4:25 ET): The return of Russell Wilson last week produced a shocking result as the Seahawks were shut out for the 1st time since 2011, which predates Wilson’s tenure here in the Pacific Northwest. The 17-0 loss to the Packers leaves Seattle at 3-6 SU and in last place in the NFC West. This week feels like a “watershed” game for the team as another loss would essentially sink their season. But a win would certainly keep them viable in the playoff hunt. Given that the Seahawks are 15-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Pete Carroll, including 6-3 with Wilson as the starter, I’m taking the points here. 

Now I know that Arizona is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and covered the spread in five of their last six visits to Seattle. But this week marks the first time since 2011 (again the year before Wilson arrived) that the Cardinals are favored here. The big story here is whether or not QB Kyler Murray (game-time decision) will play. Murray has missed the L2 games and backup Colt McCoy (will start if Murray can’t go) got injured last week in a 34-10 loss to Carolina. We know that WR DeAndre Hopkins is out Sunday. So the bottom line is that Arizona’s offense will NOT be at full strength, no matter what. 

Whether or not Murray ends up playing here is irrelevant to the selection. Coming back from a sprained ankle will limit his mobility, if he does play. If Murray is out, then I certainly don’t fear a banged up McCoy, who threw for only 107 yards last week. Given that Arizona’s bye is next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hold Murray out. While Seattle was blanked last week, note that Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone. He’s had a week to “shake off” the rust and I expect a big game from the Seahawks QB in this one. The Seahawks have three losses by a total of nine points, so their record could be much better. The Cardinals have dropped two of three following a 7-0 SU start. I can’t see them winning all their road games this season. 9* Seattle

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings finally stepped up and delivered a big-time performance last week, going to LA and defeating the Chargers 27-20 as three-point underdogs. Now 4-5 SU on the year, they seek to win B2B games for just the second time. Eight of their nine games have been decided by one score, including three in overtime and four by three points or less. So their won-loss record could easily be better. They have a positive point differential (+10) for the season. I believe this team is MUCH better than its record and is set to pull an “upset” over the division leading Packers on Sunday. 

Green Bay did it again last week, covering the spread for a ninth consecutive game as they defeated Seattle 17-0. The Packers’ current 9-0 ATS win streak is a franchise record and the third longest in history! Last week marked the return of Aaron Rodgers after he missed the loss to the Chiefs (GB’s only SU loss in the L9 games), but the former MVP has barely had any practice time the L2 weeks, not just because of COVID, but also due to a toe injury. Not that Rodgers needs a ton of practice time at this stage of his career, but here he’s facing a defense that is traditionally very good at home under Mike Zimmer. 

Minnesota allows 28.6 PPG on the road. But at home, they allow just 17.0 PPG. That’s a big difference. This week, it looks like they might get back both S Harrison Smith and CB Patrick Peterson, which would bring their secondary back to full health. Rodgers may be the QB that gets all the headlines in this matchup, but the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins is the one who actually leads the NFL in QB-INT ratio. Minnesota should probably be coming into this game on a five-game win streak (Dallas & Baltimore losses were both BRUTAL). This is a HUGE game for the Vikings to stay in the NFC North race and they are 19-6-1 ATS L26 as home dogs. 10* Minnesota

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While the Jaguars are far from my favorite team to endorse, I think this is a GREAT spot to fade the 49ers, who are on a short week and laying a big number on the road after upsetting the Rams Monday night. I took San Francisco on MNF and even I was shocked by the ease with which they won. It was 31-10, the team’s first home win in MORE THAN A YEAR. But despite the lopsided nature of the final score, yardage was pretty even - both for the game and on a per play basis. The big key was the Niners forcing two turnovers, one of which was a “pick six.” 

Really, you could make the case the Niners forced FOUR turnovers. There were two more Rams drives which ended inside the SF 20-yard line and did not result in any points. One saw the Rams attempt a fake field goal, which did not work. Another time they simply turned it over on downs. What I’m saying here is that we should temper our enthusiasm on the Niners somewhat. This is a team that had previously dropped five of six with the lone win coming against Chicago. Something else worth noting is just how poor the Niners have been as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, going just 9-21-2 ATS. That includes 2-10 ATS L12 with NINE outright losses. This is the most points they’ve had to lay on the road this season. 

Jacksonville’s defense has only given up 29 points (total) the L2 games as they have covered the spread against both Buffalo and Indianapolis, two good teams. In fact, the Jaguars stunned the Bills two weeks ago here at home, 9-6 as two-touchdown underdogs. I mentioned earlier that SF just ended a long losing streak at home. Well, now the Jags look to end a 13-game losing streak vs. the NFC, which dates back three seasons. Not sure if they can end it, but take the points as I expect this to be a close game throughout. The 49ers are not as good as they “looked” Monday night. 8* Jacksonville

8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think the Eagles have proven themselves to be better than their 4-6 SU record. Not only do they sport a positive point differential on the season (+26) but they’ve also outgained opponents on a per play basis. Last week saw the Eagles go to Denver and win very convincingly, 30-13 (line closed as a pick ‘em). But one thing that the team has failed to do this year is win at home! They are 0-4 SU at Lincoln Financial Field. The only other teams not to win a home game in 2021 are the Lions (obviously) and the odious Falcons. I think it’s about time Philly gets 1st year HC Nick Sirianni a win. Lay the short number here. 

New Orleans is a team that impressed me early on this season, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory. They are 0-2 SU in November with both losses coming by two points. But don’t let last week’s 23-21 score against Tennessee fool you. It was a late TD that got them the cover. A failed two-point try ensured there would be no OT. While only losing by two points to the hottest team in the league may not sound all that bad to you, what about losing at home to Atlanta? That’s what the Saints did two weeks ago. 

I understand that the Saints have not lost three in a row since they opened 2016 at 0-3, but this is a team now being quarterbacked by backup Trevor Siemian. The strength of the Saints now resides on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. But the Eagles lead the NFL in rush yards the L3 weeks and gashed the Saints for 246 yards in an 24-21 upset last season. That was the first career start for QB Jalen Hurts. Miles Sanders is set to return this week for the Eagles, making their rushing attack all the more formidable. 8* Philadelphia

8* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): Maybe I’ve underrated Oklahoma State all season long? The Cowboys are up to #9 in the country in the latest CFP rankings. They’re climbing in my own power ratings as well. After last week’s 63-17 dismantling of TCU (a bad call by me), the Pokes are also the #9 team in the country by my estimation. But covering eight consecutive games is pretty ridiculous. With Bedlam (Oklahoma game) on deck, I (again) think it’s a good time to fade Mike Gundy’s team. This time I’ll be right.

For the second straight week, OSU faces a team fresh off an upset. This week it’s Texas Tech, who last week downed Iowa State 41-38 here in Lubbock, as a 12.5-point underdog. That win made the Red Raiders bowl eligible (first time since ‘15) as they continue to play for an interim HC (Sonny Combie) following the surprising dismissal of Matt Wells last month. A permanent successor, Baylor associate HC Joey McGuire, has already been hired but will not take over the reins until after the season. 

Combie got his first win in the most dramatic way possible, on a 62-yard field goal as time expired. It was the second upset for Texas Tech in Big 12 play (also won at West Virginia). Keep an eye on QB Donovan Smith, who made his 1st career start against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The Red Raiders are 6-2-2 ATS their L10 times as an underdog here in Lubbock and they’ve covered five straight meetings, all as underdogs, against Oklahoma State. Twice they pulled the outright upset. 8* Texas Tech.

10* Maryland (3:30 ET): Michigan is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS after getting by Penn State last week. That win kept the Wolverines at #6 in the rankings, ahead of next week’s showdown with #4 Ohio State. If the Buckeyes defeat #7 Michigan State on Saturday and Michigan wins here, then that would set up a “winner take all” showdown in the Big Ten East next week. I know that Maryland, Michigan’s opponent this week, has had its fair share of problems. But this is an opportune time to play against the Wolverines, off the big win last week and with the rivalry game looming next week. Take the points. 

I know I may be a little bit biased (had Maryland) but the Terps probably deserved a better fate than losing by 19 last week at Michigan State. Total yardage was fairly even in that contest, but there were four Maryland drives that ended inside the Spartans’ 40-yard line that resulted in a combined zero points! That’s brutal. QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s younger brother) threw for 300+ yards for the sixth time this season, which is not only the most for any Big 10 QB in 2021 but also a school record. Maryland has now failed to cover in any of its last six games, but should remain motivated as it needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

I actually believe that Michigan does deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State despite the head to head loss. However, the Wolverines have had some close calls this season, winning three Big 10 games by seven points or less. I think this could be yet another close one as the Wolverines’ defense hasn’t been nearly as stout on the road as it has been in Ann Arbor. One of Michigan’s top two running backs, Blake Corum, is likely to miss this game as well. It’s a classic “sandwich” spot for the favorite whose previous four road games have all had a line of four points or less. 10* Maryland

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): At the risk of sounding biased, there is simply no way that anyone can convince me that Michigan State is the 7th best team in the country. Congrats to HC Mel Tucker for getting a big extension based off his Spartans being 9-1 SU and still alive for a Big 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff. But this is a team that SHOULD have lost to Michigan a few weeks ago and also has two other narrow wins against Nebraska (OT) and Indiana. Even last week’s 40-21 win over Maryland comes with an “asterisk” as Sparty was only +34 in total yards. It’s time that MSU “meets its maker” this week and that maker is #4 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, unlike Michigan State, are a legit playoff team in my eyes. Since losing to #3 Oregon early in the season, OSU has rolled through the Big 10 (as per usual) winning the seven games by an average of 27.9 points. If that’s not enough, just last week the Buckeyes slaughtered the same Purdue team (59-31) that handed Michigan State its only loss. Because this is a battle of Top 7 teams, this is a rare instance where the public figures to be taking the points. Early reports are that the public is “all over” the double digit dog in this one and I think that’s a mistake. 

Right off the bat, it speaks volumes that Ohio State is favored by this many points. My own power ratings confirm the line as being accurate, if not a bit low. I have the Buckeyes now rated as the #2 team in the country, only behind Georgia, so this is their chance to make a statement in front of a big TV audience. Consider that this is just the second time in history that a matchup of Top 7 teams has a spread of 19 points or more. That was in 2013 and the favorite (Florida State) won 41-14 (over Miami). Michigan State has an awful pass defense that will be exploited by Buckeyes’ QB Stroud and the #1 scoring offense in the country. OSU has won each of the last four matchups by 20 points or more. 8* Ohio State

8* Memphis (9:00 ET): Memphis is a team that still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. At 5-5 SU, the Tigers have two games left, this one and next week at home vs. Tulane. They’ll be favored in next week’s game, but why leave it to chance? The Tigers were “oh, so close” to their sixth win last week, but lost in OT, 30-29 to East Carolina as their two-point conversion attempt (to win the game) failed. While they’ve now lost five of their last seven, four of those defeats have been by six points or less and remember they did beat SMU two weeks ago. I’m taking the points Friday night. 

Houston was the first team to hand SMU a loss this season. That came at the end of October and the Cougars have kept on rolling here in November. Road wins over USF (54-42) and Temple (37-8) have the Cougs now ranked in the Top 25 (#24) and on a nine-game win streak. Their lone loss of the season came in the season opener to Texas Tech. I will say that the schedule has been somewhat fortuitous as UH avoids Cincinnati in the regular season. But last week’s win did set up a matchup with the #5 ranked Bearcats in the American Conference Championship Game, which takes place two weeks from now. 

With their place in the AAC Championship all sewn up, might Houston be overlooking Memphis in this spot? That’s certainly a possibility. Before holding a terrible Temple team to just 8 points last week, the Cougars defense had allowed a total of 79 points its previous two games. Memphis, who has won and covered five straight in the series, is capable of putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored 28 or more points in every game but one this season. This will be the first time in 2021 that the Tigers are getting more than 3.5 points from the oddsmakers. Houston is just 3-11 ATS following a SU win of 20+ points. 8* Memphis

10* Southern Miss (8:00 ET): The Golden Eagles came through for me last Saturday, easily covering as 32.5 point underdogs against undefeated UTSA. In fact, they actually LED OUTRIGHT for most of the third quarter. Now we shouldn’t lose sight of “the plot,” which is that Southern Miss is pretty clearly a bad team. They are just 1-9 SU on the season and had failed to cover seven straight games going into last week. But they showed me that they are still willing to compete and getting double digits against a 3-7 La Tech team - that has nothing left to play for - is an attractive option. Take the points. 

Now La Tech was a SU winner last week, 42-32 against Charlotte as 6.5-point favorites. But it was the week before, when they lost 52-38 to UAB, that the Bulldogs saw their faint chances of bowl eligibility go out the window. They’d lost five in a row before beating Charlotte with three of those losses coming by at least 14 points. Believe it or not, La Tech has been favored in half of its games so far. But never by THIS MUCH, not even when they hosted a FCS opponent (SE Louisiana) early in the season. They only won that game by three points and their average MOV when favored this season is just +0.2 PPG. 

This C-USA rivalry has a history of upset, at least recently, with the dog going 5-0-1 ATS the L6 meetings including five outright upsets! Last week saw USM head coach Will Hall dip into his “bag of tricks” and start Frank Gore Jr at QB. Gore is a running back and not even listed on the QB depth chart. If Hall tries that again, Louisiana Tech will obviously not be caught as off-guard as UTSA was. But the Golden Eagles may have found something with Gore under center. The La Tech defense gave up 548 yards last week to Charlotte. The Bulldogs’ three wins this year have been by a TOTAL of 20 points. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against ANYBODY. 10* Southern 

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): For many years, Northern Illinois was a force in the MAC. But the first two years under HC Thomas Hammock were a real struggle in DeKalb, including a disastrous 0-6 (SU) 2020 season. But the Huskies have rebounded this year to go 7-3 SU and lead the West Division with two weeks to go. This is pretty clearly NOT something that was expected as NIU has been favored in only two games all season and one of those was against FCS Maine! Their last two wins have each been by a single point (30-29 over Ball St and 39-38 over C Mich). I smell an “upset” cooking Weds night.

Now judging by the line, a Buffalo win here wouldn't be much of an “upset” at all. In fact, that’s what I’m banking on. After winning the MAC East LY, Buffalo has had a trying 2021 season due to former HC Lance Leipold bolting for Kansas after spring football. But the Bulls were able to get to 4-4 SU before suffering bad losses to Bowling Green (56-44) and Miami (45-18) the L2 weeks. Still, they’ve got a shot at bowl eligibility, but must now win out. The fact UB is averaging 36.4 PPG at home is a promising sign as is their 12-3-1 ATS run when priced as a home underdog. 

Northern Illinois had beaten Buffalo 12 straight times. But then came last year when the Bulls won in blowout fashion, 49-30 as 13-point favorites. I can’t stress just how lucky NIU has been so far in 2021. They have THREE one-point victories and FOUR by two points or less. Despite the 7-3 SU record, they’ve been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. The one time they were favored in MAC play, the Huskies failed to cover. Buffalo actually has a positive point differential this year. Despite what the WL records may say, this shouldn’t be considered an “upset” when the Bulls win. Take the points. 10* Buffalo

10* Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET): I’m a little shocked by this spread. I have these teams rated pretty even in my own power rankings, so after factoring in that the game takes place in Ypsilanti, Eastern Michigan ought to be favored. Perhaps the number has something to do with the fact the Eagles were upset here at home last Tuesday, 34-26 by Ohio. They were six-point chalk for that game and it was their biggest loss (in terms of margin) in MAC play this season. The only time in 2021 that EMU has lost by more than one score was when they visited Wisconsin very early in the season. I’m taking the points on Tuesday. 

Western Michigan has failed to cover the number in four of its last five games, including three straight. But all they cared about last week was getting the victory over Akron. That made the Broncos (now 6-4 SU) bowl eligible. However, it was not an impressive win by any means as they were 26-point faves in Kalamazoo and the final score was only 46-40. Over the last five games, Western Michigan’s defense is giving up an average of 38.4 points per contest. Again, it is somewhat shocking to me to see them favored in the spot, let alone by this many points. 

The home team is on a 10-5 SU run in this all-Michigan MAC rivalry, although LY saw EMU go to Kalamazoo and win 53-42 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now looking to make it three straight upset wins over Western Michigan while also hoping to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home this season. I’ve always been impressed by the job Chris Creighton has done here, turning around what had been a moribund program. Western Michigan has been a major disappointment in 2021, save for the win over Pitt, and gives up too many points to be favored like this on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): One of the most impressive streaks in ALL of College Football has to be Ohio having not lost a MAC game by more than seven points since 2015! That streak continued last week when the Bobcats went on the road and upset Eastern Michigan, 34-26 as six-point underdogs. It was their second straight upset win as two weeks ago, right here in Peden Stadium, they beat rival Miami 35-33 as a seven-point dog. But despite the B2B upsets, it’s been a tough 1st year under Tim Albin in Athens. Ohio is just 3-7 SU and has no shot at bowl eligibility. 

Toledo, on the other hand, needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. With lowly Akron on the docket for next week, getting to six wins shouldn’t be a problem. But we’ve seen in the past how 6-win MAC teams have been left out of the postseason. So the Rockets are definitely going to want to handle their business tonight, just as they did last Wednesday when they blew out Bowling Green (on the road) 49-17 as 10.5-point chalk. That was their second straight game scoring 49 points. I laid the points with the Rockets @ BG and will do so again here. 

While it’s been six years since Ohio last lost a conference game by more than seven points, I think that streak is due to end. This Ohio team is just not as strong as it was for so many years under Frank Solich. These teams don’t play very often, with only two meetings since 2010. The Bobcats won both, so you have to figure Toledo HC Jason Candle will be hungry for his first win against this opponent. The Rockets have covered six of their last seven road games. Four of their five losses this season have been by a combined 11 points, so the SU record could be MUCH better. I like that the offense has gained over 1200 yards the L2 weeks and the defense (which allows just 18.8 PPG on the road) gives up only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. 8* Toledo

10* San Francisco (8:15 ET): The 49ers currently sit at 3-5 SU, but a win here could “save” their season. They face Jacksonville next week, so there is a decent chance the Niners could be back to .500 at the 10-game mark. But first things first, they do NEED to win tonight. They face a Rams team that they’ve defeated four straight times going back to the start of the 2019 season. What’s really interesting about this matchup is that San Francisco is one of three teams (Detroit & Philly are the others) that are still winless at home. The Rams are one of three teams (Cards, Pats) to still be perfect on the road. 

Both teams are also coming off frustrating losses. The Rams fell to the Titans 28-16 last Sunday night in what was their worst performance of the year. Despite outgaining Tennessee 347-194, LA was never really “in” the game as they trailed 21-3 at halftime. The game really swung on B2B Matt Stafford INT’s in the second quarter, one of which was returned for a TD (the other set Tenn up at the LA 2-yard line). Remember that the Titans didn’t have Derrick Henry. As for San Francisco, turnovers (-3) were also the culprit in their 31-17 loss last week to an Arizona team that was forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy. 

Even though both teams lost last week, the Rams are clearly the more “popular” side here as they are 8-2 SU. They also just signed Odell Beckham Jr. But Beckham is as overrated as it gets. I respect the Rams, who have been favored in every game this season, but keep in mind that the Niners have been favored in every game but one. They’ve obviously had the Rams’ number and three of the four wins the last two years have been as underdogs. This game is more important to the home team, who should at least be able to keep things within a field goal. 10* San Francisco

8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): People keep waiting for Kansas City to get going. But what if it never happens? The Chiefs did win last week, but it was “ugly” (13-7 over the Rodgers-less Packers) and they failed to cover the spread … AGAIN. Over their last 20 games (including playoffs), KC is now a money-burning 4-16 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS this season against teams with winning records. With the Raiders ranked higher in my personal power ratings, I will definitely be taking the points on Sunday Night Football. 

Las Vegas fell to 5-3 SU on the year with a surprising loss to the Giants last week. Coming out of a bye, that was certainly not the result the Silver and Black was looking for. They did outgain the G-Men 403-247, but were undone by three turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. That “pick-six” was the difference in the game. Last week was the “dreaded” 1 PM ET start for the Raiders, a “West Coast” team. I expect them to play much better this week at home, where they are 3-1 SU. 

At the start of the season, everyone was rightly pointing to the Chiefs’ defense as the reason for their surprisingly poor record. They allowed 30+ points each of the first five games. But what about the offense? It’s now three straight games (and four of five) that Patrick Mahomes and company have scored 20 points or less. They were actually outgained by Green Bay last Sunday, 301-237. This team is a mess right now. I just think that the wrong team is favored in this AFC West matchup. 8* Las Vegas

10* Seattle (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. 

Though Seattle comes into this game with a 3-5 SU record, they actually have a positive point differential (+12) that’s not far off from Green Bay (who is only +19 despite being 7-2 SU). Once again, I do not feel the Packers are as good as their record shows, something I was adamant about two years ago with them. It’s pretty remarkable that the Pack have covered eight consecutive games, though it should be pointed out that three of their wins were by a field goal or less. 

The fact that the Seahawks are off a bye and that Rodgers has had no actual practice time this week is a huge advantage for the road dog this week. I firmly believe that GB’s ATS win streak - which is not only the franchise’s longest in the Super Bowl era, but also tied for the longest in the entire NFL the L3 seasons - is due to end. Wilson has thrived as a dog, going 24-12-1 ATS and winning half of the games outright. When getting four or more points, he’s 10-1 ATS and has won outright seven times. This game sets up beautifully for Seattle against a GB team that’s due to lose. Take the points. 10* Seattle

8* TCU (8:00 ET): It is my view that Oklahoma State has drastically overachieved here in 2021. But there’s no denying the Pokes looked rather impressive last week in a 24-3 win at Morgantown (West Virginia). They held the Mountaineers not only out of the end zone, but to just 133 yards total! Still though, my power ratings are a little less bullish on them than are the pollsters. The fact they’ve covered the spread in seven consecutive games should tell you that the oddsmakers have also underestimated the Cowboys. But now we get them laying double digits for just the second time in Big 12 action. 

TCU also was impressive last week in pulling a 30-28 upset of #12 Baylor. It was an emotional win for the Horned Frogs in their first game without long-time HC Gary Patterson. The school’s decision to part ways with Patterson (said to be “mutual”) is still a bit shocking to me, but if last week was any indication, the team seems to be a bit inspired. Making his first career start, TCU QB Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards on a defense that had been fairly stingy for most of this season. TCU joins Oklahoma State as the only teams to defeat Baylor in 2021. Their attention now turns to trying to win two of their final three games (in order to become bowl eligible). 

The only other time that OSU was asked to lay double digits in a conference game was when they faced Kansas. The Jayhawks are so far below the rest of the Big 12 that they don’t even really “count.” What we do know is that the Cowboys have had numerous come from behind victories this year with the last two weeks marking their only wins by more than 10 points. I’m definitely grabbing the points here as TCU played inspired ball last week and the underdog has covered in each of the previous six TCU-OK State meetings. 8* TCU

10* Maryland (4:00 ET): Outside of games where I have made a wager, I rarely have a “rooting” interest. But with all due respect to those in East Lansing, I was smirking a bit when Michigan State suffered its first loss of the season last week, 40-29 at Purdue. In no way, shape or form did I believe that the Spartans were actually the third best team in the country. My own power ratings don’t have them in the Top 20. Sparty has caught some fortunate breaks in 2021, specifically the Michigan game, which was one of three wins by five points or fewer this season. With them coming off their 1st loss, I’ll fade. 

Now Maryland would seem to need all the points they can get. The Terrapins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and suffered four blowout losses during this stretch. They did defeat Indiana 38-35 as a 3.5-point home favorite two weeks ago. Last week was a 31-14 loss to Penn State in College Park. It should be pointed out that the Terps’ last four losses were all to ranked teams. I obviously realize that MSU is also a “ranked team,” but I also think they are more vulnerable than most recent Maryland opponents. 

It’s not just that Michigan State is off its first loss, they also have their biggest game of the year (at Ohio State) on deck next week. So it’s a classic sandwich game. Maryland is not ready to “throw in the towel” by any means as they’re still trying to become bowl eligible (need one more win). They’ve got QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who is second in the Big 10 in passing yards and completion percentage. The MSU defense just gave up 536 yards passing last week. Sparty is also 3-11 ATS as a double digit favorite (four outright losses) since 2018. Take the points here. 10* Maryland

9* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): So at 1-8 SU, the Golden Eagles are obviously having a terrible season. Perhaps even more embarrassing is their 1-8 ATS record. The Golden Eagles have now failed to cover seven in a row - also 0-7 SU - since picking up their lone win of the season (37-0 against FCS Grambling). But they did have an early 14-0 lead last week against North Texas. Not covering there was pretty brutal, though I’m saying that as someone who took the points. Could it finally be Southern Miss’ time to cash a ticket this week? 

This matchup with #23 UTSA reminds me a lot of a winning bet I had last week with Missouri (plus the points) against Georgia. Like Southern Miss here, Mizzou was on a ridiculous ATS losing skid (8 games!) and getting a ton of points (almost 40!). They finally picked up a cover despite losing 43-6. Now Southern Miss isn’t getting quite as many points as Mizzou was. But UTSA also isn’t Georgia. The Roadrunners are undefeated (9-0 SU), but that’s where the comparisons with UGA end. 

This is very much unprecedented territory for the UTSA program. They are off a big win over what had been a hot UTEP team and have a big home game vs. UAB on deck. The Roadrunners could certainly be excused for “overlooking” Southern Miss. I think they will, at least enough for the underdogs to stay within the number. UTSA has been a covering machine in 2021 (8-1 ATS), but this is obviously the largest spread they’ve faced all season. 9* Southern Miss

8* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): #5 Cincinnati is very much in play to become the first non P5 school to make the College Football Playoff. Now in order to make the CFP, they obviously need to handle their own business (i.e. win out) and earn some “style points'' along the way. If they do that and (at least) one of the three one-loss teams ahead of them (Alabama, Oregon & Ohio State) loses again, then the Bearcats just might end up in the top four. But after a few close calls (against Navy, Tulane and Tulsa) they could desperately use a “blowout win” in front of a national TV audience here. I believe this Friday’s game against USF (on ESPN2) affords the Bearcats the perfect opportunity to deliver just the kind of win they need. 

USF is not a good team. The Bulls come into Friday with a 2-7 SU record and that’s after going 1-8 SU last season. Over the last 22 games, they have just ONE win against a FBS opponent and that was Temple back on Oct 23rd. That win also snapped a 13-game losing streak in conference play. Now clearly I’m taking the SU result of this game for granted. It boils down to whether or not Cincy can win by more than three scores. The three top teams that USF has faced thus far - NC State, Florida and SMU - have all beaten the Bulls by 22 or more points. Cincy is obviously the highest ranked USF opponent to date. 

So, yes, I do believe the Bearcats will win big. I know each of the last three games have been competitive going into the 4Q. I even took Tulane plus the points a few weeks ago. But USF is the weakest opponent that Cincy will have faced in a LONG time. Given the questioning of their current ranking, the Bearcats can ill-afford yet another close call. They are 6-0 ATS their L6 Friday games including a 52-3 win over Temple earlier this season where I laid the points and got the cover. USF just allowed a season-high 54 points last week. 8* Cincinnati

10* Miami (8:20 ET): The Dolphins got me last week, covering the spread in a 17-9 win over the Texans. In my analysis for that game, I admitted that it was a bit risky to go with Houston, even though Miami came in with the same 1-7 SU record. For what it’s worth, the Texans did have their chance to cover, but elected to kick a field goal (down 11) rather than go for a TD at the three-yard line. But that’s “water under the bridge” now. It’s a new week and the Dolphins are hosting Baltimore Thursday night. My recommendation here is to take the points. 

You might be a little shocked by that, given my decision to fade Miami last week against a lowly team like the Texans. But the ‘Fins are obviously not favored in this game and there can be no denying that Baltimore has been “living dangerously” this season. Four of the Ravens six victories have been by six points or less, two of them requiring overtime. Last week saw them battle back from a 14-point deficit in the 2H to beat Minnesota 34-31 in OT. While the Ravens held the edge in total yards in that game, 500-318, that’s a little misleading in that they ran 37 more plays than the Vikings. John Harbaugh’s team was actually outgained on a per play basis by Minnesota. 

As mentioned above, last week wasn’t the first close call Baltimore has pulled out this season. The last time they played in primetime, they were down 16 with just over 10 minutes to go against Indianapolis. They won that game in OT as well. Don’t forget about when they needed a 66-yard FG to beat Detroit or a late fumble to win by 1 against KC (a game the Ravens led for only 3:14). Another thing to consider here is that the Ravens are playing on the road for the first time in over a month. Jacoby Brissett possibly starting again for Miami is a non-issue for me as he’s already proven he’s no downgrade from Tua. 10* Miami 

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): Toledo outgained Eastern Michigan 672-490 last week, but turned the ball over three times and thus lost the game 52-49 as nine-point favorites. Each of the last three times the Rockets have been favored, they have lost the game on the field. They have four outright losses as chalk this season, leaving them at 4-5 SU overall, which has to be considered a massive disappointment. But I like them to get back on track tonight against an opponent they have historically dominated. Lay the points. 

The most shocking thing about last week’s loss is how many points (52) and yards (490) Toledo allowed. They came into the contest vs. Eastern Michigan with the MAC’s top scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and were second in fewest yards allowed (326.9) per game. Now I did take the Over (easy winner), noting EMU is one of the MAC’s better offensive teams. But the same cannot be said for this week’s opponent, Bowling Green, The Falcons are just 3-6 SU overall and averaging 23.6 PPG. 

Now BG is off a 56-44 upset of Buffalo last week where they were 14.5 point underdogs. But the Falcons were actually outgained 499-484 and had 25 fewer first downs! While 7-2 ATS, last week was just the third win for Bowling Green this season. It was their first win in conference play and only the second against a FBS opponent. As I alluded to above, Toledo has had BG’s number in the past. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings including 38-3 last season. I look for the road favorite to assert its dominance in this one. 10* Toledo

8* Eastern Michigan (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Tuesday game for both Ohio and Eastern Michigan. Last week, both were underdogs and won their games outright in high scoring fashion. Ohio, at home, beat rival Miami 35-33 as seven point dogs. They were outgained 569-413. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan went on the road and upset Toledo 52-49 as a nine-point dog. The Eagles were outgained 672-490. But in both instances, I did not care about the total yardage battle or even who won. That’s because I had the Over in both games. It ended up being a 2-0 night for me. 

Last week I shared with you some rather shocking information: it has been over six years since Ohio lost a MAC game by more than seven points! But Frank Solich’s surprising retirement still looms large over this team, which is just 2-7 SU with no shot at bowl eligibility. I know that the Bobcats have been mostly “snake bitten” under Tim Albin (Solich’s replacement) in 2021 with three losses by a total of six points. But it’s probably “high time” that they lose by more than seven points in conference play. As mentioned last week, the Ohio defense is one of the worst in the country at stopping the run (204 YPG allowed) and gives up 31.3 PPG as well. 

Clearly, EMU has some “work” to do at the defensive end as well. But the offense can certainly put up points as is evident by the fact they’ve now put up 50+ in B2B games. What they did last week against the MAC’s top scoring defense was very impressive. The Eagles are now bowl eligible following last week’s win, but there’s no guarantee a six-win MAC team gets invited to play a postseason game. So they’re going to be looking for a strong finish to the regular season. Winning the West Division is not out of the question. My power ratings say this should be a double digit spread. 8* Eastern Michigan

10* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Eagles were not expected to be very good this season. With a 3-5 SU record, one might argue that they are in fact “living up to expectations.” However, I think they’ve played a lot better than people may realize. It’s something I talked about when taking them - plus the points - against Carolina a few weeks ago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents on a per play basis this season! That’s still the case and coming off a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last week, they also now have a positive YTD point differential! I think Philly is BETTER than the Chargers. Take the points in this one. 

The Chargers have not won since October 10th when they defeated Cleveland in a wild 47-42 game. Even then, the Lightning Bolts needed to stage a comeback from a two touchdown deficit in the second half. Since that last win, the team has been blown out by Baltimore (34-6) and then, off a bye, lost at home to New England 27-24. You may recall I had the Patriots last week. Similar to this matchup, my power ratings said that LA should have been the underdog when they were in fact favored. At least, the Chargers had home field advantage last week. This week they do not. 

The Eagles are 0-3 SU at home, so expect them to really want to win here for 1st year HC Nick Sirianni. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is banged up (right hand injury) and was limited in practice Wednesday. That makes me like the home team even more in this one. Expect the Eagles to exploit a lousy Chargers’ run defense, which is giving up a league-worst 159 YPG. The Eagles just ran for a season-high 236 yards on the ground last week. Special teams remains an albatross for the Chargers as they currently rank 32nd (per DVOA) for the third year in a row in the “third phase” of the game. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS L8 as home dogs. 10* Philadelphia

8* Houston (1:00 ET): Cross your fingers and say a prayer, we’re taking the Texans this week. Now this play has far more to do with Houston’s opponent. Miami shouldn’t be laying this many points to ANYBODY as I have them rated as the third worst team in the NFL right now. Are the Texans 32nd (i.e. last)? Yes, they are. But I do not believe this spread is an accurate representation of the actual difference between the two teams right now. The Dolphins have been outscored by 95 points this season and haven’t won a game since Week 1 when they defeated the Patriots - by a single point. 

Houston’s lone win also came in Week (at Jacksonville). Since then, they’ve lost six times by double digits. The one exception was against the Patriots, a game they led most of the way. There have been some really bad blowout losses for David Culley’s team and last week’s game vs. the Rams was far worse than the final score (38-22) made it seem. But look at some of the teams the Texans have had to play so far. The Rams, Cardinals and Bills are the three highest rated teams in my current power rankings. Do I think Houston wins this week? Not necessarily. But I do believe they will keep this game close (as in within one possession). 

Miami has had a few more close calls than Houston this season, with three losses coming by a FG or less. But they still have the same seven-game losing streak the Texans do. It was a game effort for three quarters last week up in Buffalo, but the offense still only managed to score 11 points. In six of their eight games this season, the Fins have scored 20 points or less. That’s why I am fading in this spot. Also, Tyrod Taylor is set to return and be the starting QB for Houston. That’s an upgrade from Davis Mills. The Texans have a positive point differential for the six quarters Taylor has played this season. 8* Houston

8* Denver (1:00 ET): Dallas surprised all of us last Sunday night when they went to Minnesota and won 20-16 (as 4.5-point underdogs) despite not having the services of QB Dak Prescott. It was the sixth straight win for the Cowboys on the field and at 7-0 ATS, they are the only team to still be perfect at the betting window. I’m banking on that latter streak to come to an end Sunday as America’s Team is caught laying its biggest number of the year. Prescott is expected to play, but regardless of his status I am taking the points. 

What an odd two years it’s been for Denver when it comes to the oddsmakers. Last season, they were the ONLY team in the entire NFL not to be favored a single time. This year, they’ve been favored in seven of eight games! After starting 2021 a perfect 3-0 SU, the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak. But they picked up a much needed win last week (at home), beating Washington 17-10.  They did so despite amassing only 273 yards of total offense. But a “win is a win” in this league and HC Vic Fangio will take it. 

Denver actually has the best YTD point differential (+20) in the AFC West. Do I think that will hold? Probably not. But the Broncos have let only three teams score more than 17 points this season. Only one of their losses has been by greater than 10 points. I know Von Miller is now gone (traded to the Rams), but I still look for the underdog to make this a close game. The Cowboys are certainly long overdue NOT to cover and after surprising everyone with the win last Sunday night, this is a great time to fade them. 8* Denver

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): Oklahoma State had its easiest game of the season last week as they beat Kansas 55-3. But it can’t be discounted just how “dangerously” the Cowboys have been living most of this 2021 season. There have been two games (Texas & Boise State) where the Pokes won after trailing by at least 13 points. They also trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4Q and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State for a seven-point win in Stillwater. All the close calls finally caught up with OSU against Iowa State, where they lost 24-21, the week before blowing out Kansas. 

This week finds Mike Gundy’s team traveling to Morgantown, WV, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire Big 12. The Mountaineers will be looking to pull off a third consecutive upset here as the last two games have seen them defeat TCU as a 4.5-point road dog and then Iowa State as a 7.5-point home dog. Though just 4-4 SU on the season, the Mountaineers could have a MUCH better record as three losses have been by six points or less, including two by just a field goal. 

While pulling three consecutive upsets might seem like a tough “ask” from WVU, take note that Oklahoma State is an extremely fortunate 6-0 ATS L6 games. OSU is #11 in the initial CFP rankings, but oddsmakers have a less favorable view and so do my own personal power ratings. Bank on the home team having plenty of motivation Saturday afternoon as they have lost six straight times to the Pokes (0-5-1 ATS). The last two weeks have seen WVU average 490 YPG. 8* West Virginia

8* Wyoming (3:30 ET): The annual “Border War” is renewed Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Colorado State owns the all-time series edge, but it had been Wyoming that had won four in a row - before last year. CSU picked up its ONLY win of the 2020 season (played just four games) when it beat the Cowboys 34-24 as a three-point home underdog. But now they have to win at a place where they have not prevailed since 2015. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring game (just look at the total), taking the points seems like the way to go. Also, Wyoming (because they are 0-5 ATS L5 games) seems undervalued. 

Wyoming started the season 4-0. Now three of those wins were close calls (decided by 7 points or less), one of them against UConn, which would have been a VERY embarrassing loss. Turns out the Cowboys haven’t won since that near embarrassment. It’s a four-game SU losing streak with one of the defeats coming to lowly New Mexico here at home by a score of 14-3. The Pokes have actually outgained their last three opponents (combined) yet are somehow winless. Being -9 in turnovers hasn’t helped. Despite the four-game losing streak, my power ratings still say the home team should be favored here! 

Colorado State’s season started very poorly as they opened 0-2 with the losses coming to FCS South Dakota State and lowly Vanderbilt. Then things began to turn around in Fort Collins. The Rams covered four straight and were 3-1 SU. The lone loss was at Iowa! But the L2 weeks have brought a couple painful defeats, 26-24 at Utah State and 28-19 at home vs. Boise State. The Rams blew a 13-0 lead last week in a game their fanbase really thought they were going to win. I sense they’ll be deflated this week and that’s tough when hitting the road. Wyoming will be desperate for its first MWC win. 8* Wyoming

8* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): Kind of an “off the radar” game to go with here, but whenever I see a 2-6 team (like North Texas) laying points on the ROAD, my eyes always “light up.” Now Southern Miss is no Alabama. The Golden Eagles are 1-7 and that lone SU victory came against Grambling, a FCS school. The Golden Eagles have lost six straight games, five of them by double digits. But this is probably their last shot at a win this season. I think they’ll come out motivated. Take the points. 

Now until last week, North Texas had also not beaten a single FBS team in 2021. The Mean Green had lost six in a row, four by double digits, since defeating Northwestern State 44-14 all the way back in the season opener. But then they beat Rice 30-24 last week as a 1-point underdog. In case you were somehow unaware, Rice is not a good team. It took OT for the Mean Green to get that first FBS victory and they were actually outgained for the game. Expecting them to win B2B games seems like a “tall order,” no?

Now I’m obviously aware of the fact that Southern Miss has not scored 20 points against any FBS opponent this year. That’s not good! But they do only give up 20.3 PPG at home! The North Texas defense, as you might expect, is pretty bad. The Mean Green allow 33.6 PPG and have allowed less than 35 to just two FBS teams. Southern Miss had five turnovers last week in a 35-10 loss to Middle Tennessee. Take better care of the football here and they can at least stay within the number. USM has beaten N Texas each of the last two years - by a combined 28 points! 8* Southern Miss

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Incredibly, Mizzou has failed to cover 10 straight games. This ATS losing streak goes all the way back to the end of last season. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in 2021. But, believe it or not, I have been waiting very patiently to bet on them again. Now it (obviously) didn’t work out the last time I did so. That was three weeks ago at home vs. Texas A&M when they lost 35-14 as 11-point underdogs. That is the only time in their last four games that the Tigers have been an underdog. This week certainly puts their “inability” to cover the pointspread to the test as they are getting almost FORTY points against #1 Georgia. 

It just so happens that Missouri’s 0-10 ATS run began with a 49-14 loss last year to UGA. They were 14-point home underdogs in that particular meeting. I think this is a GREAT time to take a Mizzou team that has been favored to win more than half of its games this season. The only other time this year that the Tigers were double digit dogs was the game vs. A&M. This is just a ton of points, a perfect time for a team that’s beyond “due” to cover a pointspread. 

Now obviously Georgia is very good. But coming off a four-game stretch where they faced Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Florida (all ranked teams), doesn’t it just FEEL like this is going to be a classic “letdown” spot? Especially coming on the heels of being ranked #1 in the initial CFP rankings? This is more points than UGA laid to VANDERBILT, which was a road game, but still. Only two Georgia wins this year (UAB, Vandy) were by more than 37 points. I don’t think this one will be the third. 8* Missouri

10* Minnesota (8:25 ET): Two teams off byes meet in this week’s Sunday Night Football Game. But despite an extra week of rest, the Cowboys are not necessarily healthy. There’s some question as to whether or not QB Dak Prescott (strained calf) will even play here. Regardless if he does or not, I think Dallas is likely to lose this game and suffer its first ATS defeat of the season. They enter as the only unbeaten ATS team in the league (6-0) and are 5-1 SU, the lone loss coming to Tampa Bay on Opening Night. 

Minnesota is 3-3 SU, however I believe the Vikings are better than their record. After suffering some very close losses in the early part of the season (at Cincinnati, at Arizona and Cleveland), they’ve battled back to square away their record at .500. While they needed OT to get by the Panthers 34-28 two weeks ago, statistically they dominated that game with a 571-306 edge in total yards. Those early season losses to Cincinnati and Arizona (both on the road) no longer look as bad, given where those teams are at now. The Vikings offense may only be 14th in scoring, but it is fifth in total yards per game. 

Two weeks ago, the Cowboys were very lucky to win, let alone cover, in New England. Obviously, Prescott’s status could change everything, but I liked the idea of fading America’s Team even before the severity of the calf injury was known. It’s not like Dallas is going to cover the spread in every game this season and their defense is giving up 6.5 yards per play so far. The Vikings’ defense is tied for the league lead in sacks (with 21), so even if Prescott does play Sunday night, he’s likely to be under duress the whole time. Not good for a signal caller dealing with a calf injury. 10* Minnesota

8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Tampa Bay couldn’t score ONE touchdown in the second half last week vs. the Bears. Granted they didn’t HAVE to. But I could have used one. I bet the Over in their game vs. the Bears, which was 35-3 at halftime and looking good in that regard. But only a field goal was scored in the 2H and things stayed Under with the Super Bowl Champs winning 38-3. It will undoubtedly be much tougher this week when the Bucs travel to New Orleans to face the rival Saints. 

New Orleans is off a somewhat ugly 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night. Because that’s fresh on bettors’ minds and Tampa Bay is off a blowout win, I don’t anticipate a rash of people running to the window to play the home team in this one. But I’m here to tell you that the Saints should not be discounted. This team has a very good defense, which is now the identity of the team with HOF QB Drew Brees retired. The Saints are also going to be highly motivated this week. Not just because they are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs (who knocked them out of the playoffs LY), but also because this is just the second game at the Superdome this season. 

Tampa Bay ran for 182 yards last week on Chicago. That was rather easily a season-high. But I wouldn’t expect them to reach half that number this week. New Orleans is giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. That’s #3 in the league. Now the Bucs defense is #1 against the run. But a big key here is that New Orleans is a home dog of four or more points for just the third time ever under HC Sean Payton. They are 10-2 ATS as a dog since 2018. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. My power rankings call this basically a toss up, so I will obviously take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* New England (4:05 ET): It was “just the Jets,” but the Patriots made quite the emphatic statement last week with a 54-13 win in Foxboro. It definitely made me take notice that this COULD still end up being a playoff team under Bill Belichick. Now I know their three wins have come at the expense of the Jets (twice) and Texans, who are perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. But the Pats also have three losses that have occurred by either two points or less or in overtime. So their SU record could certainly be better than it is. They now have a YTD point differential of +39 (better than the 4-2 Chargers). So I’m definitely taking the points. 

Los Angeles is coming off its bye. They needed it as the last time we saw the Lightning Bolts, they were getting thrashed 34-6 by Baltimore. It was easily the worst loss for the Chargers this season. They’ve actually had better luck in close games, which is rare for the Chargers, who have three wins by six points or less. Another issue for the Chargers this season is their run defense, which gives up the most yards per game and attempt in the league. In addition to rookie QB Mac Jones getting better every week, New England ran for a season-best 148 yards last week. 

The Patriots always seem to have the Chargers’ number. They are 6-0 against them since 2010, including playoffs. That run also includes a 45-0 beatdown from last season where special teams played a key role. Once again, this year finds New England with a massive edge in special teams over LA. I am simply going to trust my own power rankings on this one as they say the visitors are the better team. 8* New England

9* Carolina (1:00 ET): Two 3-4 teams from the NFC South meet this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are undoubtedly “hotter” at the moment as they’ve won two straight games, one before and one after a bye. But I remain unconvinced that they are a better team than the Panthers. All three of Atlanta’s wins have been by one score, two of them by three points or less. After YEARS of misery in close games, the Dirty Birds won on a last second field goal last week, beating the lowly Dolphins 30-28. 

Carolina was once 3-0 but has now dropped four straight. They are off their most embarrassing result to date, a 25-3 loss at the Giants. QB Darnold was benched in his return to MetLife Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery remains OUT due to injury. All reports indicate that Darnold will be back as the starter this week. Regardless if those reports end up being true (I believe they are), I’ll be taking the points in this divisional matchup. Atlanta isn’t just 0-2 SU at home this season; they are also 0-6 SU and ATS their L6 as home favorites. 

Even with the Falcons’ two-game win streak, my power ratings disagree with them being favored here. They have a -41 YTD point differential as they were blown out in the first two games by the Bucs and Eagles. Their three wins have been against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins, three teams that are a combined 4-16 SU. Carolina’s YTD point differential is 0 as their first three losses were all by eight points or less. The Panthers won here in Atlanta LY when they were a weaker team. 9* Carolina

10* Clemson (3:30 ET): We all know about that definition of the word “insanity.” Something about “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” Well, for the third week in a row, I’m taking Clemson. This despite losing with them the previous two times. The Tigers are now 0-7 ATS, tied with Missouri for the worst such record in the country. Last week saw Dabo Swinney’s team installed as an underdog for the first time since the National Championship Game (vs. LSU) at the end of the 2019 season. It was also the first time they’d been a ‘dog in ACC play since 2016! I thought that was the ultimate “buy low” spot, but it turns out they lost 27-17 as 3.5 point underdogs.

This week finds Clemson back in the familiar role of favorite, facing Florida State. They have dominated the Seminoles in recent years. In the last two meetings, the Tigers were favored by 26.5 and 18.5 points. They won those games by 31 and 49. It should not shock you to find that the line is much shorter this time. I know that Clemson has really struggled to score this season, but here they are facing a defense that has given up 25+ points in every game when not facing UMass or Jacksonville State. Four times the Seminoles have allowed 30 or more.

Clemson did allow 27 points last week to Pitt, which was a season-worst when excluding OT. But the Pitt offense is one of the best in the country. The same cannot be said for Florida State’s. The ‘Noles have not scored more than 14 points in any of the L3 meetings with Clemson and won’t here. My own power ratings are calling for this spread to be north of two touchdowns, so there is VALUE on the favorite here. I’m not “insane!” At long last, the Tigers end their ATS losing streak. 10* Clemson

8* Boston College (3:30 ET): What in the world is going on in upstate New York? Syracuse has covered six straight games, giving them the longest ATS win streak in the country. The underdog role has suited them well as they were getting points in all but one of those games (when they faced FCS Albany). But the Orange can no longer rely on the oddsmakers to get them “over the hump” this week. That’s because for the first time in their last 22 games vs. FBS competition, they find themselves favored!

Ironically enough, the last time the ‘Cuse was favored to defeat an FBS foe was against the very opponent they are matched up with this week. Boston College comes to the Carrier Dome on a three-game losing streak. But before opening ACC play at 0-3, the Eagles were flying high with a 4-0 start. I took them (and cashed) when they beat Missouri, which is the last time they won a game. By the way, that last time Syracuse was favored? BC smoked them 58-27 as three-point pups.

I’m not saying things will turn out quite that lopsided this weekend. But I do believe it is an opportune time to fade Syracuse. All of the Orange’s last five games have been decided by five points or less. Now they are laying points for the first time in two years. Last week, they needed to come back from a nine-point deficit in the 4Q to beat Va Tech 41-36. They led for less than five minutes. I know that BC is struggling on third downs due to playing with a backup QB. But they should be able to move the ball on a Syracuse defense that gave up 260 yards rushing last week. The three straight losses are a first under HC Jeff Haley. Take the points. 8* Boston College