10* Ottawa (9:30 ET): Ottawa is 0-3 to start the season, but has only been outscored by 12 points in those three games. All three losses have been by seven points or fewer and were to two teams, Winnipeg (twice) and British Columbia, both of whom are undefeated and a combined 7-0 straight up on the year. Last week, coming out of a bye, the REDBLACKS lost their home opener 34-31 to B.C. and it was especially painful for me as I had them +2.5. I’ll seek to gain some revenge for that loss by taking the points again this week. You’ve gotta believe that Ottawa is poised to win one, sooner rather than later. 

Saskatchewan is 3-1 SU on the young season, but only +24 in point differential, which is a far cry from the first two teams that Ottawa has faced. The Roughriders started out the year by beating Hamilton 30-13 and Edmonton 26-16. But those were somewhat misleading final scores as it wasn’t until late that the Riders pulled away. Sure enough, they suffered their first defeat in Week 3, getting blown out by Montreal 37-13. Last week saw them get a measure of revenge on the Als with a 41-20 beatdown at home. But it needs to now be pointed out that this will be the fifth straight week of action for the Riders while the REDBLACKS had a bye two weeks ago. 

Ottawa was outgained last week by BC, but that was after outgaining Winnipeg (substantially) in both games. Should be pointed out that Saskatchewan has LIVED off turnovers in each of its three wins, holding a +10 TO margin in those games. Last week, it was +4 vs. Montreal. Ottawa has zero turnovers in its last two games and just two all season. To me, this is a value play taking the points in what is likely going to be a pretty low-scoring game. The Riders are also without WR Shaq Evans, who fractured his ankle two weeks ago. 10* Ottawa

10* Ottawa (7:30 ET): B.C. has gotten off to a HOT 2-0 start, winning the two games by a combined score of 103-18! But this is not a great spot for the Lions, who are on a short week and traveling East to the capital city of Canada. Last week, we saw a Saskatchewan team in a very similar spot, 2-0 and heading East on a short week, get blown out. Like the Leos, the Rough Riders were short road favorites. They lost 37-13. Further complicating matters for British Columbia this week is the fact they had multiple key players go down with injuries last week, receiver Bryan Burnham and running back James Butler among them. 

This will be B.C.’s first road game this season. I know that QB Nathan Rourke (an Ohio U grad!) has been extremely accurate to start the year, completing a record 87.8% of his passes. His 39 completions last week were the seventh most in a game in CFL history. But Rourke can’t possibly continue these numbers. I also don’t think the team will be able to come close to matching last week’s extraordinary time of possession (40:18), the highest the league has seen in a game since 1996.  Again, a short week for the Lions does them no favors for this first road game. On top of that, Ottawa is coming off a bye.

The host REDBLACKS are 0-2 so far, but both losses came against unbeaten Winnipeg. Those games were close, decided by a total of nine points, and the REDBLACKS’ defense allowed only 19 points in both games. Despite going against the Blue Bombers’ top-ranked defense in both games, Ottawa QB Jeremiah Masoli is having his own great start to the season, throwing for 300+ yards in both games. His top receiver, Jaelon Acklin, has the fourth most yards in the league (220) and the highest average despite playing in only two games. This feels like a great value on the home team. 10* Ottawa

10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): This is the first battle between these long-time provincial rivals since Edmonton was rechristened the Elks. It’s been a tough start for the 0-2 Elks, who have been outscored 85-31. But this sets up as a good “ambush” spot as Calgary, while 2-0, is going to be without RB Ka’Deem Carey and QB Bo Levi Mitchell is listed as questionable (game-time decision). The Stampeders could easily be 0-2 themselves right now as they needed 4Q comebacks to win both games. The two wins have been by a combined six points. So take the points Saturday night. 

Back in Week 1, the Stamps won 30-27 at home over Montreal, thanks to a last second field goal. They were down 10 points (24-14) at halftime. They lost the total yardage battle in that game, something that was also the case last week at Hamilton where they got outgained 499-378, only to once again escape with a victory by a three-point margin. Only this time they needed OT after rallying from an even bigger deficit. The Stamps trailed the Ti-Cats 17-0 after the 1Q and were still down 14 entering the 4Q. 

Now they won’t have Carey and his backup Peyton Logan also went down with an injury in the second half of last week’s game. Mitchell potentially being out potentially looms largest as he threw for 300+ yards in last week’s come from behind effort. I know Edmonton’s defense has had trouble stopping the run, but they get a huge break here with the injuries in Calgary’s starting backfield. While the Elks did get clobbered in Week 1 vs. BC, they were up going into the 4Q last week vs. Saskatchewan. Now set to face their biggest rival, this looks like a great opportunity to grab the points. Calgary is just 6-20-1 ATS its last 27 games as a favorite. 10* Edmonton

10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): For the second week in a row, these Alberta rivals will meet. Calgary is 2-0 in the season series, including a 25-9 win last week. They'd won 24-18 earlier in the year, but the "catch" is that both games took place at McMahon Stadium in Calgary. Edmonton certainly isn't going to take those losses lightly and now w/ the homefield advantage for the first time, we expect them to exact some revenge. We won w/ the Under in each of the first two meetings and expect that Eskimos defense (still #1 in the league) to "show up" here after LW's poor performance. Lay the short number. 

The Eskimos gave up a season-high 462 yards last week as QB Bo Levi Mitchell made his return for the Stampeders. That was the big storyline heading into the game and we'd thought there was a good chance Mitchell might struggle in his first start in nearly two months. Turns out that wasn't the case. Although, it was really the Stamps' ground game that got things going as they went for over 200 yards rushing. Now let's see how Mitchell performs on the road. Calgary isn't going to run the ball that effectively again, that's for sure. 

The Eskimos defense still allows just 278.9 yards and 20.3 points per game, which rank 1st and 3rd in the league respectively. Last week saw Calgary have not only the homefield edge, but also the advantage of being off a bye. Neither of those situations are present this week. The Stampeders have lost two of their last three road games with the one win coming by a single point. Edmonton is now off B2B losses, so they're motivated by more than just revenge here. It was the worst offensive game of the season last week for the Eskimos, but they should bounce back at home where they've gone 4-1 SU this season, winning by an average of nearly 10 PPG. 10* Edmonton

10* Edmonton (9:00 ET): Early on, it appeared as if Hamilton and Winnipeg were set to "run away" w/ the respective divisions. However, Edmonton has since surged up the pecking order and many (myself included) now consider them the best team in the league. The rash of injuries at QB across the CFL this season is something I've never seen before and the latest team hit was Winnipeg as last week they lost Matt Nichols for (at least) six weeks w/ an upper-body injury. Expect no sympathy from the Eskimos as this is both a revenge game and a chance to pull into a first place tie in the Western Division. The oddsmakers are pretty clear on who they prefer in this one and I'm inclined to agree. Lay the points.

This was going to be a tough game for Winnipeg even w/ Nichols. But playing for the 1st time w/o their starting QB, here of all places, is not ideal. Edmonton is giving up a league-low 18.2 PPG and is also a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season. Getting the start in place of Nichols will be Chris Streveler. He's been used in some short yardage situations this year, but has attempted only nine passes. Steveler did play some last year, but this is a tough ask. The Bombers had already failed to cover three in a row prior to last week's 16-point win over BC. 

As stated above, this is a revenge spot for the home team. Edmonton lost 28-21 at Investors Field back in Week 3 despite a +3 edge in turnovers and 440-273 edge in total yards. It's really pretty amazing that they lost that game. But now that they are getting the Bombers at home, look for the Eskimos to show that they are the team to beat in this league right now. With all the QB's having gone down, Edmonton is in great shape w/ Trevor Harris, who threw for 420 yds last week in a 41-26 win over Toronto. No team is outgaining foes by a wider margin this year than the Eskimos (+173.9 YPG) and it's not even close. Winnipeg is #2 at +36.0 YPG. 10* Edmonton

8* British Columbia (8:30 ET): I successfully played on (BC) and against (Winnipeg) these teams last week and will keep those respective reads for Week 10. We all know that British Columbia has been struggling this year as last week's 35-34 loss to Hamilton dropped them to 1-7 SU on the year. But it was a game effort by the Lions as they came up just one point as big underdogs. I can see a similar story unfolding this week as Winnipeg is coming off a hard-fought 26-24 win over Calgary last week, one in which they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. I had the Stampeders plus the points in that one and will take the big number this week w/ B.C. 

Like I just said, it was a game effort from the Leos LW. The actually outgained the Ti-Cats 437-355. The problem was being -3 in turnovers and that's why they blew a 34-19 lead. Giving up a long punt return late led to the game-winning score for Hamilton in the final minute. In the first half, they allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. Despite the tough loss, expect the Lions to come out roaring this week. QB Mike Reilly has his 4th 300+ yard game of the year against the Ti-Cats. WR Bryan Burnham had 149 yards and two touchdowns. 

Burnham had 156 yards - on five catches - in the Week 1 meeting against Winnipeg. RB Andrew Harris went for 148 yds over land. The interesting thing about that opening week matchup is that the Blue Bombers closed as a pick em. They're now large favorites for the rematch, laying double digits at home. But after failing to cover three in a row and a tough division win over their nearest rival, this is a tough spot to be laying so many points. The Bombers haven't had a bye since Week 2. BC just had theirs two weeks ago and will come out desperate for a win here. 8* British Columbia

10* British Columbia (7:00 ET): It's been a rough start to the season in Western Canada, at least in B.C. where the beloved Lions are 1-6 and in last place. The Leos' lone victory this year came by one point, 18-17, on a last second rouge over a Toronto team that was winless all the way until last week. Five of the team's six losses have been by double digits and the last three have been by a total of 67 pts (including two 27-pt losses at home). My hope, obviously, is that the team is going to be a lot better off the bye. I think they will, so take the points against a wounded (literally & figuratively) Hamilton team. 

Contrary to what's going on in B.C., Hamilton's season got off to a wonderful start. The Ti-Cats were really humming along at 5-1 after beating previously unbeaten Winnipeg, 23-15, in Week 7. But disaster struck in that game w/ QB Jeremiah Masoli getting injured. Coming into the year, Masoli was easily the best QB in the East Division and that's why I (along w/ so many others) thought that they would breeze to a first place finish. They still are in first, but things have gotten closer after LW's 24-19 loss to Saskatchewan. The Ti-Cats simply are not the same w/o Masoli, so that's why I'm preaching to be wary of this double-digit spread here. 

I had the Under in LW's loss in Regina. While credit for Hamilton scoring only 19 pts could easily go to a Roughriders defense that previously held them to 17 pts in the opener, don't look past the change at QB. Dane Evans threw for just 129 yards last week, a far cry from what we're used to seeing from Masoli. Furthermore, the Hamilton offense has only managed 234.7 YPG the L3 weeks. With B.C. off its first bye of the year, I think they'll come out refreshed and easily cover this large spread. 10* British Columbia

8* Calgary (8:30 ET): QB Bo Levi Mitchell (injured since Week 3) was eligible to return for this game, but just to illustrate how well things have gone w/ backup Nick Arbuckle in there, the Stampeders have elected to push back Mitchell's return at least one more week. Since losing in Week 1 to Ottawa (blew double digit lead), the Stamps have won five of six (only loss by 7 at Hamilton) to catch Winnipeg in the Western Division. The Blue Bombers started the season 5-0, but have subsequently dropped B2B games at a most inopportune time. Too many points here. Take Calgary as a dog.

After a 2-2 start, it seemed as if many were quick to write Calgary off. But their defense is playing as well as any in the league right now, giving up an average of just over 16 PPG during a three-game win streak. Arbuckle is doing an outstanding job here as well. Last week, he completed 19 of 28 passes for 189 yards in a 24-18 win over rival Edmonton. Honestly, that was one of Arbuckle's weaker efforts. He has two 350+ yard games under his belt. It's pretty rare to see the Stampeders as an underdog, certainly of this magnitude. Earlier this year, they pulled one outright upset on the road, beating Saskatchewan 37-10 as 5-point pups. 

Much will be made of Winnipeg's motivation in this one coming off the terrible loss to Toronto last week. Plus, this is a rematch of LY's Western Final, which was won by the Stampeders 22-14 as five-point favorites. The Bombers seem to be the only team in the league that hasn't suffered an injury at QB and pivot Matt Nichols was playing like a MVP in leading the team to a 5-0 start. But he had an "off week" last week, throwing for a season-low 169 yds as the Bombers blew a 20-pt first half lead to lose by one, 28-27, in the closing seconds. The week before they lost to a Hamilton team that lost starter Jeremiah Masoli to injury. Calgary is catching Winnipeg at an opportune time and may not even need the points! 8* Calgary

10* British Columbia (7:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for BC, who sits at 1-5 SU/ATS w/ their lone win coming on a last-second rouge over (still) winless Toronto back in Week 4. But I'll take a flier here as the Lions are a home dog in an immediate revenge spot vs. division rival Saskatchewan. Last week at Mosaic Stadium, the Roughriders prevailed 38-25 as six-point chalk. You may recall the fact I was on them. But comparing spreads, there definitely appears to be value on the home side as a dog this go around. Take the points. 

A key factor in me playing Saskatchewan last week was the fact they were coming off a bye. They were certainly eager to take the field after being embarrassed two weeks prior (also at home) by Calgary, 37-10 as five-point favorites. BC has not yet had its bye (comes next week). With their next three games coming against Winnipeg and Hamilton, two on the road (yikes!), this week is absolutely the Lions best shot at a win between now and the end of August. Getting this one at home is also huge as Saskatchewan is 0-2 on the road having opened the season w/ losses at Hamilton and Ottawa. The Roughriders haven't played a road game in a little over a month.

The Lions actually outgained the Roughriders last week, 458-379, but gave up far too many "big plays" in the second half. For QB Mike Reilly, it was still a nice bounce back performance (31-40, 346 yds) after the disastrous game vs. Edmonton the week prior. Despite the 1-5 record, the Lions' offense actually leads the entire CFL in first downs w/ 130. With their season basically at stake here, I'll take them as a home dog. 10* British Columbia

8* Edmonton (9:30 ET): The Eskimos are set to take the field just five days after they last played. That's hardly ideal, but the situation is actually worse for the visiting Argonauts, who are still winless (0-5) and playing their third road game in as many weeks. Four of the Argos' five losses have been by at least 10 points, including last week's when a sloppy second half led to a 26-16 defeat at the hands of Calgary. But the real reason the Argos are in trouble here may have nothing to do w/ them at all. Rather, it's the fact Edmonton was upset Saturday at Montreal as six-point chalk. I'm laying the points here as this could get ugly, in a hurry.

The Eskimos just played their L3 games all on the road, so they know the situation Toronto is facing all too well. It was a 20-10 defeat out in Montreal Saturday, the Esks' lowest scoring game of the season. But now they're back home where they've gone 2-0 so far this year, beating Montreal by seven and B.C. by 16. In particular, look for QB Trevor Harris to have a bounce back game tonight as the Argos' defense is giving up a league-worst 37.6 points per game. Despite a subpar game last week, Harris is still leading the league in passing yardage (1,633) w/ eight TD passes. Even w/o RB C.J. Gable and receiver DaVaris Daniels, Harris and the Edmonton offense should have no trouble moving the ball in this game. 

It's not just the defense that's bad for the Argonauts. The offense is averaging a league-low 15.0 PPG and they come into this game w/o RB James Wilder Jr and slotback Armanti Edwards. Sure it was a game effort last week in Calgary, but seven turnovers doomed the Argos and they looked really bad in the second half. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson (threw 4 INT's vs. Calgary) simply doesn't look "ready for primetime" and he'll be going against a defense that's giving up just 20.4 PPG, third fewest in the league. Going back to last year, Toronto has now lost 14 of its last 15 games. Again, lay the points here. 8* Edmonton

10* Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): So I like the total in this matchup as well. But, coming off a bye, I expect the Roughriders to have little difficulty covering the spread. British Columbia is reeling right now as QB Mike Reilly had a nightmare game against his former team, Edmonton, a 33-6 loss at home. The Lions are very lucky not to be 0-4 right now as their lone win came in last second fashion, on a rouge, 18-17 over still winless Toronto. I think a pretty clear case can be made that B.C. is the West's weakest team this year and I'll lay the short number w/ the Roughriders. 

As mentioned above, Saskatchewan is coming off its bye. Perhaps it came at an opportune time as they too are off an embarrassing home loss, theirs coming to Calgary, 37-10 as five-point favorites. That leaves the Riders at just 1-3 SU this year. But their first two losses came by just nine total points. They also dominated Toronto here, 32-7, something B.C. failed to do. A big key for the Riders lies at stopping the run. The first three games all saw them hold the opponent below 100 yds rushing. B.C. has really struggled to run the ball this year w/ only the Toronto game seeing them gain more than 91 yds over land. Three times they've been at 53 yards or less. 

 The Lions are barely averaging over 300 YPG so far. They also are barely averaging 20 PPG. I see the Roughriders having a bounce back game defensively. I realize backup Cody Fajardo struggled two weeks against Calgary, but this is a much weaker opponent he's facing this week. The Riders are 4-1 ATS off a bye and 12-5 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Saskatchewan

10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): The Blue Bombers have emerged as one of the CFL's top teams this year as they are the only unbeaten remaining at 4-0. But that's only part of the reason why they are such prohibitive favorites this week against the REDBLACKS. Thanks to an injury to starting QB Dominque Davis, Ottawa is going w/ Jonathan Jennings at the pivot this week. An offseason signing, Jennings has never started for the Redblacks previous to this. It's a tough spot and to make matters worse, the team is reeling having gone 0-3 SU/ATS the L3 games. Lay the number.

Winnipeg is off to its first 4-0 start in decades. The franchise hasn't started a year 5-0 since 1960 when they went 14-2 and won the Grey Cup. But this group looks to be something special as they've won every game by at least seven points, including 29-14 at Ottawa back in Week 4. The Bombers were actually four-point underdogs in that game, so obviously a lot has changed since then. The biggest is the Redblacks QB situation, but also it's become quite clear that the Bombers are among the league's elite teams this year. (Really, it's either them or Hamilton for #1).

Winnipeg is giving up the fewest points in the league right now (19.7 per game) while also averaging 34.5 PPG themselves. So as you can see, this really is a tough spot for Jennings to come in and make his Ottawa debut. The Redblacks have all of three passing TD's this year and all of them came in the Week 2 win over Sasktachewan. Since then, they've scored only 33 points (at a time when scoring is way up across the CFL) including last week's very disappointing 36-19 home loss to Montreal. Given how the Bombers dominated them the first time around, I can't see how this game goes any better for the Redblacks. 10* Winnipeg

10* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): Those well versed in CFL betting know that fading Calgary is something you didn't often do, even when the Stampeders were being asked to lay a big number. The Stamps have dominated this league the past several seasons, but a loss in LY's Grey Cup followed by a mass exodus of talent in the offseason have left them a shell of their former selves. The latest setback may be the biggest one of all as last week saw QB Bo Levi Mitchell go down w/ an "upper-body injury" that has landed him on the six-week injury list. I have no hesitation here in laying a short number to the Stamps in their first road game of 2019.

Despite the Mitchell injury, Calgary was able to come from behind and pull out a miraculous victory last week at BC. But the way they started the game probably doesn't speak well to the future. They were down 21-1 at one point (at home!) and trailed 32-21 in the fourth quarter. Mitchell's replacement, Nick Arbuckle, came in and delivered a stunning performance in relief by completing all nine pass attempts, two for touchdowns. But I wouldn't look for a repeat of that here against a stingy Roughriders defense. It's now a hostile environment for the Stampeders playing a team that smells "blood in the water."

Saskatchewan was my top side last week as well as they rolled Toronto 32-7 in the Mosiac Stadium opener. They rolled up 522 yds of total offense while allowing the Argos to gain only 314. Despite being 1-2, the Roughriders have outgained all three of their opponents this year. They have their own injury at QB (Zach Collaros out), but Cody Fajardo has come in and proved himself, leading the offense to 73 points in two starts. Expect the Roughriders' defense to do its job here as well. They face a Calgary offense that has run for just 73 yds this year, a big reason why the Stamps have been outgained in both games. Remember Saskatchewan won the season series from Calgary last year and that was a much better Stampeders team. 10* Saskatchewan

10* Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): In my analysis for last week's Hamilton @ Toronto game, I wrote the following "I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here." 

Well, that turned out to be a sharp move as Hamilton ANNIHILATED Toronto by a score of 64-14. As a result, the Argos opened as double digit dogs this week at Saskatchewan, who is also winless on the season (0-2). But the Roughriders can at least lay claim to being competitive in both of their defeats. In fact, they outgained both Hamilton and Ottawa and that was on the road. This is the season opener at Mosaic Stadium and comes on Canada Day, so you can expect a rabid crowd. I expect the Riders to reward their fans w/ a blowout victory here tonight. 

Even though they've lost both games, there is plenty of reason to believe in this Saskatchewan team here, even w/ QB Zach Collaros on the six-week injured list. The defense held Hamilton to just 23 points in Week 1, a significant achievement considering what the Ti-Cats have done subsequently. Then last week, under the direction of QB Cody Fajardo, they still scored 41 points on Ottawa. Unlike the Redblacks, Toronto is probably not capable of trading scores here as they came into the season w/ major questions at the pivot (QB) and those certainly were no closer to being answered following Week 1. The Argonauts managed just 214 total yards vs. Hamilton and the defense was shredded for 600+ yards while giving up touchdowns on each of the first six drives. Lay the points 10* Saskatchewan

8* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): Winnipeg is off a bye and has only played once, a 33-23 win over B.C. where they were +3 in turnover differential. Edmonton is 2-0, but will be playing on the road for the first time this season. So the stakes are high for this early season Western Division showdown. I'm going to lay the points w/ the Blue Bombers as I feel they are going to present some more challenges offensively than what the Eskimos have seen so far this season. 

Edmonton is off a spirited win over B.C., 39-23 as 2.5-pt favorites, a game where the sharp money had lined up AGAINST them. But they were able to contain former pivot Mike Reilly and the rest of the Lions offense, holding them to just 157 total yards of offense. With that performance, Edmonton is #1 in the league in yards per game allowed through two weeks. They are also #1 in yards gained on offense due to piling up over 600 in the opening week win over Montreal (32-25). But make no mistake about it, playing on the road for the first time, this is going to be the Esks toughest challenge. 

These rivals have split the last eight meetings. This will be Winnipeg's first home game as well. Interesting to note that Edmonton was just 2-7 SU on the road last season en route to a last place finish. The two teams they've beaten so far are a combined 0-3. Winnipeg's Andrew Harris ran for 148 yards on 16 carries in the opener and is the player to watch here. Look for the Bombers to reign supreme Thursday night. 8* Winnipeg

10* Hamilton (7:00 ET): I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here. 

Hamilton won its season opener, 23-17 over Saskatchewan. Many were surprised the Ti-Cats didn't score more given the way their offense performed under June Jones down the stretch last season. They are the one team in the East that entered the year settled at QB as Jeremiah Masoli threw for 5,209 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Even with wideout Luke Tasker out for this game, the Ti-Cats have a deep group of playmakers that are more than capable of moving the ball. Remember they were facing a tough Saskatchewan defense last week. Toronto's simply is not of that same caliber. 

The Argos haven't had much success against their provincial rival in recent years, covering only 3 of the last 15 matchups. Hamilton took three of four last year, including both here in Toronto. While Corey Chamblin is back as the head coach of the Argos (previously served as DC here for the Grey Cup team in '17), he has his work cut out for him. I really think they're going to struggle to score points early on. QB James Franklin is a big question mark. The defense isn't as talented as the group Chamblin had two years ago. Hamilton makes a statement here that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Division. 10* Hamilton

8* British Columbia (9:00 ET): In Week 1, B.C. learned first-hand that Winnipeg may very well be "as good as advertised." The Lions were dealt a 33-23 loss by the Blue Bombers, at home no less, which is obviously NOT how they wanted to start the season. Meanwhile, Edmonton opened its season by downing Montreal 32-25 in a home game that was less competitive than the final score would indicate. The Eskimos outgained the Alouettes, 608-299, but needed a late score after the Als actually tied things up w/ a 4Q comeback. But let's not kid ourselves. The Als are the worst team in the CFL.

More than anything else, it was a -3 turnover differential that killed BC last week. They didn't have a balanced attack on offense (only 4 yds rushing on 4 attempts), but QB Mike Reilly had a solid debut as he completed 22 passes for 324 yards. Winnipeg was far more balanced on offense w/ 170 yards rushing and 180 passing.  I expect the Leos defense to be a lot more stout this week against the Eskimos, who don't have an Andrew Harris (who led the league in rushing last year for Winnipeg). This is a big game for Reilly after he chose to leave Edmonton for B.C. in the offseason. 

The pivot (QB) who replaced Reilly is Trevor Harris and he was the league's most accurate passer in Week 1. But for any Eskimos fans wanting to say "good riddance" to Reilly, they better be careful what they wish for. This will be a much more challenging game than Week 1 was for Edmonton. It's highly unlikely that they'll enjoy anything close to the massive edge in total yardage that was present vs. Montreal. Thus, I'm taking the points here. BC will run the ball more here (how could they not?) against an Eskimos' defense that permitted 134 yds on 17 carries last week. Also, the Lions have a big edge on special teams, thanks to return man Brandon Rutley, who had a 108-yard return for TD against Winnipeg. 8* British Columbia

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): This is a spot that the Ti-Cats simply must take advantage of. They're coming off a bye and hosting an Edmonton squad that is on a short week (just four days between games). Perhaps its that quick turnaround for the Eskimos that is responsible for the line shift. But also be aware that despite their 3-5 SU record, Hamilton has actually outscored its opponents in 2018. This is a squad that has been favored in every game but one so far, that one being its last game where they lost by six at Winnipeg. While they've fallen short of expectations so far, I have the Ti-Cats bouncing back in a major way Thursday night. Lay the points.

Edmonton had no problem beating Montreal last Saturday, but who isn't blowing out the Als these days? The Eskimos actually failed to cover the spread in the 40-24 victory as they were lofty 19.5-pt favorites at home. They did rack up 536 yds of total offense, but again, take any stats w/ a "grain of salt" when they come at Montreal's expense. These teams met back in Week 2 w/ Hamilton prevailing 38-21 as 6.5-point road underdogs. There was nothing "phony" about that win either as the Ti-Cats came in and rolled up 528 yards of offense. Hamilton has suffered three losses by six points or less so far, so really this is a team that's played better than its record shows.

As stated above, they are off a loss here, 29-23 to Winnipeg. But that was a road game. It was also two weeks ago. The schedule sure sets up nicely for a big Ti-Cats win tonight as their opponent is facing a tough spot w/ limited time to rest and practice in between games. Meanwhile, you have to figure Hamilton has had this game circled ever since losing to the Blue Bombers. They've actually dropped four of five, including two home games, so the level of motivation should be very high Thursday night. Since 2011, the Ti-Cats have 35 wins at home vs. just 24 on the road. They'll also be honoring CFL Hall of Famer Joe Montford at halftime, so emotions should be REALLY high here. The Ti-Cats are also 7-2 ATS following a SU loss. 10* Hamilton

10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): Last week, Hamilton made for one of the easiest bets in my life as I cashed them as seven-point road favorites at Montreal. They won 50-11, completely outclassing the Als (led 41-3 at half!) and their embarrassment of a QB, Johnny Manziel. The idea that a QB that had just come to a team (the worst one in the league, no less!) two weeks prior and would be thrust into the starting position was laughable. So, clearly any assignment from here on out will be tougher for the Ti-Cats. This one in particular is going to be a challenge as they have to visit Winnipeg to play a rested Bombers team that's also off a big win. I'll lay the points Friday night.

Winnipeg is off a home and home sweep of Toronto, winning 38-20 on the road, then 40-14 at home. Two of the team's three losses this year have come by just a field goal. Their four wins have come by an average of 30.5 points per game. Obviously that average will start to come down eventually. But, tonight I look for the rested Blue Bombers to come out quite motivated. They're looking to avenge their largest defeat of the season, which came at Hamilton, 31-17 back in Week 3. But that game saw them play w/o the services of QB Matt Nichols, who is now back in the fold. This is going to be a much better team than the one that faced the Ti-Cats last month.

Four first half interceptions of Manziel quickly turned last week's game into a joke for Hamilton. They actually led 28-0 after 15 minutes, which is the largest lead for ANY TEAM IN CFL HISTORY after the 1st quarter! That much-needed win snapped a three-game losing skid, all of which came as favorites. Tonight marks the first time since Week 2 that the Ti-Cats will be underdogs. While that might make it seem like there's some value, I think it also speaks to the respect commanded by the Bombers when at full strength. Only unbeaten Calgary has outscored its opposition by a wider margin so far this season. With a rested home team looking for revenge, Hamilton is going to find things much more difficult Friday night. 10* Winnipeg

8* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Montreal is - quite easily - the worst team in the entire CFL. They've won just one time all season and that was back in Week 3 as 11-pt dogs at Saskatchewan. They've been outscored by 100 pts in six games overall and things have gotten so dire here that the team has decided to bring in Johnny Football as their new starting QB. Ironically, it was tonight's opponent that originally had Manziel's rights before trading him to the Als just a couple weeks ago. Obviously, there will be a lot of hype surrounding this game, but that works to our advantage as Montreal is being WAY overvalued in this spot. Manziel has not played pro football - of any kind - since 2015 and will be starting here just two weeks after coming to Montreal. Lay the points. 

Also helping to undervalue the favorite here is the fact Hamilton is off three consecutive outright defeats. Two were against Saskatchewan (home and home) and the other last week, 21-15 to Ottawa. In the case of the last two losses, turnovers have killed the Ti-Cats as they're -4 in that department. The team is now 2-4 SU on the year (w/ wins over Edmonton and Winnipeg), yet has been outscored by just five points. They absolutely hammered Montreal in both meetings last year, winning by a combined score of 76-16. Granted they lost the game outright, but the fact the Ti-Cats were six-point favorites at Saskatchewan just last month makes them look like a "real steal" by comparison here. 

The last five QB's to make their CFL debuts have all lost. So that's what Manziel is up against here. He will be the fourth different starting QB for the Als in the last four games, something we have not seen from any CFL team this century. I just can't see him playing all that well. Rather, this is a desperate act by a bad team playing at home and looking to boost attendance. Again, the Als are without question the worst team in the league this year and the gap is significant between them and the rest of the field. They are very likely to go all season w/o being favored in a single game. Getting a full TD at home sounds like a value, but not when you're this bad. Consider they've gotten 8.5 or more pts from the oddsmakers in all but one game this season and are being outscored by 16.7 PPG. 8* Hamilton 

8* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): After sweeping a home and home w/ Hamilton (were underdogs in both games), the Rough Riders lost at home to Calgary last week, 34-22 as 7.5-pt dogs. Even though they didn't cover, there's no shame in that result, given that they were up against - easily - the best team in the league. This week finds them smack dab in the middle of a Stampeders' sandwich as they'll again face Calgary in Regina next week. They'll certainly have more time to prepare for that rematch (16 days) than they do here vs. Edmonton as it'll be just four days in between games for the Riders when they take the field Thursday night. Tough as that may sound, the points are plentiful here and the team is 3-1 ATS as a dog TY w/ three outright wins.

Edmonton is 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS) and has a claim to be CFL's second best team. They hammered lowly Montreal last week, 44-23, as 10.5-pt road chalk. That game took place on Thursday, so it's a full week off for the Eskimoes. But after dominating the Als so thoroughly (outgained them 513-303), might this be a bit of a letdown spot for the home team? I certainly think that could be the case. Last week was also just the second time that the Eskimoes covered the spread. Two of their four wins have been by three points or less. While their defense remains one of the league's best, they are allowing a virtually identical number of points per game to Saskatchewan. I'm not sure the offense is prolific enough to make up the difference required to cover the spread.

The Riders are also getting back two key contributors for this game, one on each side of the ball. QB Zach Collaros is expected to make his season debut Thursday night and that obviously makes the offense a whole lot more dynamic. Originally, Collaros wasn't going to return to Week 10, so this early return is a key bonus. He's the bigger of the two returns, but DB Nick Marshall should definitely help on the other side of the ball as well. Plus, Marshall being back means Duron Carter is back to being a slot receiver. While the number of PPG allowed are nearly identical from the two defenses here, Saskatchewan allows fewer YPG and I believe will have the edge at the LOS. They like to the run the ball on offense and can exploit a poor Edmonton run defense. In a divisional matchup like this, my view is that a spread like this is simply too high. Edmonton is just 7-15 ATS its L22 home games while Saskatchewan is 8-2 SU/ATS following a loss. 8* Saskatchewan

analysis soon

10* Calgary (6:00 ET): It's time for the 105th Grey Cup and it should come as no shock to see that Calgary is once again involved. The league's preeminent franchise of the last decade, the Stampeders are making their third appearance in this game in the last four years. They will be looking to erase the memory of LY's heartbreaking loss to Ottawa and win their first Grey Cup since 2014. Toronto has won more Grey Cups than any franchise in league history (16), but they are only a 10-9 SU team as it always seems as if the Eastern Division comes into this game looking significantly weaker on paper. Of course, such was the case LY when Calgary lost to Ottawa, but revenge will be theirs this year, even though the Argos should have the edge in crowd support w/ the game taking place in Ottawa. 

After a poor end to the regular season (lost 3 straight!), Calgary won the Western Division Final (6th straight year appearing in that game!) over rival Edmonton last week, 32-28 as five-point chalk. This is the fourth time in five years they finished first in the West and 10th straight year they've won at least 10 games. But they actually enter this game on a five-game ATS skid. Nevertheless, they have beaten Toronto eight straight times and covered each of the last five. In the two matchups this year, the Stamps outscored the Argos by more than a 2:1 margin (64-31) and outgained them by 248 total yards! Botth wins came by at least 16 points even though they trailed in each! 

Remember that before the "slump" at the end of the regular season, Calgary was 13-1-1 its first 15 games. Toronto, who finished in last place in 2016, has made a big jump this season and at no point this season have they been more than a game above .500. At one point, they were 4-7 SU and appeared to be going "nowhere fast." Credit them for winning six of their last eight, but they play in the weaker division and have only outscored the opposition by 30 pts all season. Compare that to Calgary, who has a league best point differential of +178. Defensively is where the Stamps are superior here as they are allowing only 18.1 PPG, a league low. They are also #1 against the pass, forced the most turnovers and have the most sacks. The running game has been huge for Toronto during their late season surge w/ production nearly doubling in that area since Week 13. But I don't look for them to have much success here. Last time these teams faced off, the Argos were held to just 18 yards rushing and didn't have a single offensive touchdown. 10* Calgary

10* Edmonton (3:00 ET): What a difference a couple of weeks can make. Two weeks ago, Edmonton was undefeated (7-0) and the toast of the league. Now, following losses to Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, they're 7-2 and back in an all-too familiar place, which is looking up at rival Calgary in the standings. But they're starting to get healthy again w/ both WR Adarius Bowman and linebacker Adam Konar expected back in the lineup today after long absences. Edmonton has had a terrible time in the past covering on Labour Day as they are 0 for 11 ATS their L11 Week 11 matchups. But while the Stamps have won the last five LD matchups by an average of nine points and never trailed in the last four, four of those have been decided in the final three minutes. This time Edmonton is a double digit dog and a great value. Take the points. 

The Eskimos are off their worst game of the season as they were beaten soundly (at home!) by Saskatchewan, 54-31, as 5.5-pt favorites. Five turnovers certainly did not help there as QB Mike Reilly played - easily - his worst game of 2017. Interestingly, total yards in that game were basically even, so the turnovers really did play a large role in determining the final score. Skeptics will point out that Edmonton has zero wins this year over a team that currently has a winning record, but the market has simply shifted far too much against them here. Previously, they have not been an underdog of more than 4.5 pts. They also have beaten 5-5 B.C. twice. Their YPG differential of +70 exceeds that of Calgary.

The Stamps are the hottest team in the league right now as they've won and covered five straight. However, three of those wins/covers came against Eastern Division foes, so critics could poke a hole in their resume as well. It was a very close game when they won at B.C. two weeks ago (21-17). Other than that, they've gotten to play Toronto twice and Hamilton in the last four weeks. Incredibly, they're a bigger favorite this week than they were last against the Argos. That makes no sense to me. The Calgary defense has been quite stingy of late, but Edmonton's offense will test them as Reilly should have a bounce back game. Stampeders QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been pretty up and down himself of late. Bottom line is that in a rivalry game such as this, you should expect a closely played affair and Edmonton is being way undervalued due to past Labour Day struggles. 10* Edmonton

10* Toronto (9:00 ET): The Argos are off one of the most impressive performances of this CFL season. It was certainly their most complete game. I had them, in a revenge spot from the previous week against Montreal, and they rolled to a 38-6 win and cover. With the Als losing again Thursday, Toronto now finds itself all alone in first place in the weak Eastern Division. The task is certainly tougher this week, but the spread is also larger, as they face the Stampeders on the road. As per usual, Calgary is the class of this league. They too are off an impressive win, 21-17 at B.C., though the margin of victory was nowhere near what Toronto's was last week. The Stamps' four-game SU and ATS win streak does include a 41-24 victory at Toronto. But, armed w/ revenge for a 2nd straight week, I believe the Argos plus the points are the way to go again.

Earlier, I said that last week was - easily - Toronto's most complete performance of the season. I wasn't joking. They outgained Montreal 466-140 in the 38-6 win. Clearly, the key was the return of QB Ricky Ray, who threw for 377 yards and four TD's, all in first half. The game was over by halftime as the Argos were up 35-0. However, let us not discount the job the defense is doing here. Not only do they lead the league in yards per game allowed (305.9), but sacks (30) as well. That's despite being w/o several key players. They're now closer to full strength on that side of the ball and thus I expect the results we've seen to continue. Of course, Ray is healthy now too and that's the biggest difference for this team. 

While Toronto has the league's best defense, Calgary has the top offense. They are rolling up almost 400 yards per game. This team rarely loses at home. In fact, they've won 13 straight at McMahon Stadium. But might the pointspread catch up with them finally? They are 2 for 2 ATS as a double digit favorite so far. But those games were against Saskatchewan and Hamilton, the league's two last place teams and the latter being - easily - the worst team in the league. The Stampeders have hardly played the hardest schedule in the league to this point. Last week was their toughest matchup to date as they won only 21-17 at British Columbia. Winning in B.C. is not easy, but QB Bo Levi Mitchell completed only 48 percent of his passes, which is worrisome. Also, you have to wonder if this will be a lookahead for Calgary as they have the annual home and home against rival Edmonton looming. Toronto is undervalued here, plain and simple. 10* Toronto

10* Toronto (4:00 ET): For the second week in a row, these Eastern Division rivals meet. Last week, it was in Montreal and the Alouettes prevailed 21-9 as 7.5-pt favorites. As you can tell from that final score, it was a game dominated by the Als defense, which is giving up the fewest number of points per game in the East (2nd overall, behind Calgary). But something else that needs to be mentioned here is that Argos' QB Ricky Ray didn't play last week. He'll return Saturday and this time the game will be played at BMO Field in Toronto. Ray's return is critical, as you can tell from how the line has swung for this rematch. Despite not playing at all last wk, Ray is still 2nd in the the league in passing yards and has thrown for 300+ in every game he's finished so far. He is # 1 in the league w/ 25 pass completions of 20+ yards. Lay the very short number here. 

Ray went down two weeks ago, in the second half vs. Calgary, a game the Argos lost 41-24. Thus last week marked the end of a very consistent stretch for this offense, one that had seen them score between 24 and 27 points for five consecutive weeks. The Eastern Division, as per usual, seems to be weak with Montreal currently leading Toronto by one-half game in the standings. Both teams are currently below .500. So a win here would actually put the Argos in first place despite them being w/o their starting QB for the last game and a half. Also adding to the importance is the fact Toronto has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games. They desperately need some momentum and I think Ray's return provides that. 

The Montreal defense is strong, but it's the team's strong suit almost by default as the offense has scored 21 pts or fewer in five of seven games this year. As Saskatchewan showed last week, exacting revenge can sometimes be easy. One week after losing at B.C. 30-15, the Rough Riders whipped the Leos 41-8 at home. That's the blueprint I'm following here and it should be pointed out that the Als are just 3-8 ATS their L11 times off a SU win. 10* Toronto

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Oh those poor Taibbis. Hamilton, still the league's only winless team, dropped to 0-6 last week w/ a 33-28 loss at Edmonton, who happens to be the league's only unbeaten. Mind you, it was a game effort (as the final score indicates) and the second time in three weeks that they've played the Eskimoes tough. Of course, everyone still remembers how the Ti-Cats got crushed two weeks ago at Calgary (lost 60-1!) and that loss combined w/ the winless record all but ensured they'd be a home dog in this spot. I said taking the points was the way to go last week (easily covered as DD dogs) and the same holds true here as Winnipeg is a team certanly unaccustomed to the role of road chalk. This should be Hamilton's 1st win of the season.

Winnipeg is coming off B2B close wins, first over Montreal (41-40) and then LW at Ottawa (33-30). The defense has surrendered 40+ pts three times this season, yet the Bombers are somewhat surprisingly 4-2 SU w/ one of those losses coming against B.C., a game where they blew a huge lead. But the L2 wks it has been them pulling the rabbit out of the hat. First, they rallied back from a 40-28 deficit against the Als (w/ less than two minutes to go!) to win by one. Last week was more of the same as they found a way to score twice in the final five minutes at Ottawa, including a GW FG w/ no time remaining. Eventually, all the good fortune will catch up w/ them however and I can't see a team allowing 34.8 PPG continuing to win at this rate. They've actually been outscored in their six games. This will be just the third time this year that the Bombers have been favored. They're 1-1 ATS in that role so far, both games coming at home. 

While Hamilton is the only team allowing more points per game than Winnipeg, their number is skewed due to that one disastrous performance at Calgary two weeks ago. Keep in mind that the L4 wks have seen the Ti-Cats have to play the three top teams in the league, including Edmonton twice. QB Zach Collaros threw for a season-high 3 TD's last week (against a much better defense than he'll face here) and he's 3-0 SU all-time vs. the Bombers. Tonight marks just the third home game for Hamilton and they just changed defensive coordinators, so expect that unit to play w/ some fire. 10* Hamilton

10* Hamilton (9:30 ET): This line is a direct result of what happened last week when the Ti-Cats were humiliated in Calgary, losing 60-1. The loss drops them to 0-5 SU (CFL's only winless team) and they're now a real ugly 7-20-2 ATS their last 29 games overall (1-8 ATS L9 road games). So, needless to say they're not being given much of a shot here (on the road) against the league's lone unbeaten, Edmonton, who moved to 5-0 last week w/ an impressive 37-26 home win over B.C. But it sure does appear as if the "sharp money" hasn't "taken the bait" in this one as the line has come down - rather significantly - despite the majority of bets actually being placed on the Eskimos. I'll take the points w/ the "unpopular" side here as well as there's no way Hamilton can be as bad as they were last week. They should come out highly motivated for this encounter.

In terms of the value we're getting here, look no further than the previous meeting for a point of reference. These teams met just two weeks ago, in Ontario, and Edmonton checked in as only a three-point favorite for that game. They won, but only by a score of 31-28. So you can see how much influence last week had on the oddsmakers here. We're now able to get several extra points of value that we wouldn't have otherwise. Note that Hamilton actually led that first meeting, 25-13, before succumbing to a fourth quarter comeback. They still led 28-23 w/ two minutes remaining and Edmonton did not take its first lead of the game until the GW TD was scored w/ 23 seconds to go. Close games have been the rule and not the exception in CFL this year, so taking points (especially this many) onlky seems natural.

Edmonton may be the league's lone unbeaten, but they are nowhere close to having the best scoring differential. That belongs to the rival Stampeders (+109). In fact, the Eskimos have only outscored their five opponents this year by a cumulative 23 points, or an average of LESS than 5.0 per game. They were nine-point favorites here at home back in Week 2, but failed to cover against Montreal in a 23-19 win. In fact, last week's win over B.C. was the team's first this year by more than four points. This is a classic "buy low" scenario as Hamilton is not as bad as it looked last week. 10* Hamilton

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): Calgary has been the class of this league for the last several years and if you had any doubt that would continue into 2017, they sent a message "loud and clear" last Saturday w/ a 60-1 beatdown of Hamilton. But as good as the Stamps have been, I can't help but think this is a classic overlay as they now have hit to hit the road for the first time in three weeks. Their last road game, at Montreal, resulted in an outright 30-23 loss as four-point favorites. You can bet Toronto will be fired up for this one as the Argos are off a 37-28 loss at Saskatchewan, which also took place last Saturday. I'm always leery of laying points on the road, no matter the sport, and CFL is no different. Take the points here.

Toronto did not fare well against Calgary last season, as they were swept in the season series. They lost by 18 and 28 points respectively and going back further have actually dropped six in a row to the Stamps (last win was in '13). But even though they lost LW, the Argos are a better team this year than last. QB Ricky Ray has thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this season and as a result the offense is averaging an impressive 404 YPG. Their scoring average is "just" 25.3 points per game, but they've topped that in every game but one, a disappointing Week 2 effort where they lost to B.C., 32-15. The defense is allowing just 342 yards per game, so this team is a lot better than the 3-3 SU record shows. 

Meanwhile, all of Calgary's statistics are going to be skewed because of last week. It is interesting to note however, that the Stamps (4-1-1) are still "just" +66 YPG compared to their opponents while the Argos are +62 YPG, a very comparable number. In terms of yards per game gained, these are the top two offenses in the league right now. Tip your cap to the pivot Ray, who is on pace to break the legendary Doug Flutie's single-season passing mark of 6,619 yards. His fewest number of passing yards in a game this season is 323 and he's averaging 363 YPG. He's completing 69.2% of his pass attempts as well. That Toronto defense also happens to lead the league in sacks w/ 19, so don't be surprised if they make life for Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell quite uncomfortable. 10* Toronto

10* Toronto (7:30 ET): What a terrible spot this is for Ottawa, who is playing for the second time in less than a week. Technically, this is still considered a Week 5 matchup, but the reality is that Toronto essentially has had a bye (last played on 7.13) while Ottawa is playing its sixth game of the season and doing so w/ only four days to prepare. Considering the Argos are at home, this price looks especially cheap. Already this season, they've gone to Ottawa and upset the Redblacks, 26-25 as 4.5-pt dogs. That's actually the lone game of the year that the defending Grey Cup Champs haven't covered, but I anticipate a far more lopsided result this time around. I took the points last time around w/ the Argos and this time will lay 'em!

Ottawa did win last Wednesday, beating Montreal 24-19 in what was their first win of the campaign. But it was greatly aided by the Als turning the ball over four times, thereby nullifying a 493-420 edge they had in total yards. Also, take note that the Als were driving w/ a chance to win before being stopped on downs (inside the Redblacks' 20-yd line) w/ less than three minutes remaining. I look for Toronto QB Ricky Ray to take advantage of what should be a tired Redblacks defense here as Ray is the lone CFL pivot to throw for 300+ yards in every game this season. He's closing in on Doug Flutie's career CFL record. 

I give Toronto a big edge on special teams in this matchup as return man Martese Jackson recorded 339 yards in the previous game. While the Argos still lost to Winnipeg, 33-25, they did so despite having an edge in total yardage. Turnovers were again the story there as a -2 ratio doomed them. This is Toronto's first home game since 6.30, so you have to figure they'll be highly motivated to go out and perform well in front of the fanbase. But again, I have to go back to handicapping the situation here and the fact the Argos have had so much more time to prepare cannot be understated. If you recall my analysis from the first matchup of the year between these teams, I stated that the Redblacks would regress severely in 2017 and that they have (and will continue to do). 10* Toronto

10* British Columbia (10:00 ET): Prior to the season commencing, the Leos were getting plenty of "Grey Cup love." We're starting to see why. After dropping the season opener in disappointing fashion (30-27 to Edmonton), they've won three in a row, all on the road. Now they return home to face a Winnipeg team that's off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start. Normally, I might be unwilling to "touch" a game like this, but b/c of the chance B.C. may be w/o its starting QB, we are able to get an incredible value on them here. In case you are unaware, backup Travis Lulay came in last week and threw for 436 yards in the 41-26 win at Hamilton. That set the record for most yards passing by a QB that did not start the game in CFL history! Lay the points here.

Moving forward, B.C. will obviously want Jonathon Jennings back at the pivot position. But last week showed there isn't any kind of significant drop off w/ Lulay in there. He completed over 80% of his passes w/ three TD's in the win. Winnipeg is hardly any kind of defensive stalwart as in their lone road game to date, they gave up 40 points and that was against Saskatchewan. Lulay is no newcomer to this league either; he's won 40 games in his CFL career and was voted Most Outstanding Player back in 2011. I have to say that I was a bit shocked to find that the Bombers have covered the L5 meetings between these Western Division rivals. They'd even won four in a row - straight up - before a one-point win by the Leos last November. But the tides have turned and now B.C. is the better team - by far. Quite simply, it's time for some payback. 

While B.C. soundly beat Hamilton last week, even overcoming four turnovers, Winnipeg was a little fortunate to beat Toronto as they were actually outgained in the contest (354-336). Meanwhile, B.C. outgained Hamilton 507-424. The Bombers clearly benefited last week from a +2 turnover margin. Don't look for that to happen again Friday as the Leos had only three TO's in the first three games before more than doubling that number last week. Also, despite giving up over 400 yds LW, the Leos defense has proven itself to be stout. They'd allowed just 31 pts total the previous two games. 10* British Columbia

8* Calgary (7:00 ET): Calgary, who has been the CFL's best team over the past three seasons (despite winning only one Grey Cup), is off to yet another strong start here in 2017. They are w/o a loss (2-0-1) and have won B2B in impressive fashion after opening the campaign w/ a tie against Ottawa (Grey Cup rematch). At 34.3 PPG, they are - easily - the league's highest scoring team. Montreal is somewhat at the opposite end of the spectrum. Their games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now at just 38.0 points per game and that's largely due to an offense that is averaging a league-low 17.3 PPG. While that number is likely to start going up, I feel the Als are severely outclassed here. Lay the short number. 

  Close games have generally been the rule this year in CFL, but the Stampeders are off an easy 29-10 win last week, on the road, over Winnipeg. They forced three turnovers and shut the Blue Bombers out in the second half. Something curious when examining past head to head matchups between these two is that the Stamps have failed to cover any of the past five meetings. They've actually lost three of them outright, including LY's lone visit to Molson Stadium, by a score of 17-8 as nine-point chalk. Considering the respective trajectories of the two franchises during this time, Montreal holding a 3-2 series edge makes little sense. But what it has done is create a ton of value on the road favorite here. One would have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time the Stamps were favored by fewer than five points in a game against the Als.

Montreal has yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season. Calgary's 29 pts last week were their fewest scored in any game to date this year. That right there should tell you what the Als are up against here. Montreal is just 3-11 ATS its L11 home games and keep in mind it's one win this year came by a single point over Saskatchewan, who was the worst team in the league last year. Calgary has covered 8 of its last 11 road games. I just can't understand why the line would be so low here as the Stamps are clearly the better team and probably due to cover against the Als anyway. 8* Calgary

10* Hamilton (10:00 ET): For the second consecutive week, whatever homefield advantage Saskatchewan might hope to enjoy is mitigated by the fact they'll be facing a team off a bye. I played against the Rough Riders in this same spot last week and sure enough they fell to Winnipeg, 43-40 in overtime. Defenders will point out that the Riders held a 10-0 advantage after the first quarter, but they also trailed 34-23 entering the fourth. Being that it was the first ever regular season game played at the new Mosiac Stadium, that will be a tough loss to get over. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have had more than two full weeks to stew over an embarrassing 32-15 loss at Toronto in Week 1 where they were actually 3.5-pt favorites. That's the most lopsided single-game result of the CFL season to date and as a result, I think Hamilton is primed for a bounce back. 

The Ti-Cats did not end 2016 well, dropping six of their final seven games w/ the lone win coming in OT (against eventual Grey Cup Champ Ottawa!). They also haven't had much luck at the betting window either, going just 1-8-1 ATS their L10 games. I say that latter record signals a market correction is forthcoming. Note that last year, they were favored against the Riders in both matchups and beat them 53-7 at home. They were 5.5-pt favorites here in Regina, although they did lose that game 20-18. But now that the market has shifted to them being an underdog, they are where the value lies.

Saskatchewan, as I said last week, is somewhat unaccustomed to the role of favorite. They were chalk all of three times last season, two of those coming in the first three games. After last week, they have now lost outright each of the last four times they have been favored. Going back to the start of the 2015 season, the Riders have been favored nine times and lost outright EIGHT of them! The last time they won and covered as chalk was September of '15. I'm 2-0 ATS in Saskatchewan games this season and plan on making it 3-0 ATS here. 10* Hamilton

10* Toronto (7:00 ET): Two full weeks of CFL action are in the books and once again close games have been the "rule" and not the exception. Six of the first eight games have been decided by four points or less. Interestingly enough, the two games that have not both involved Toronto. The Argos opened the year by thrashing Hamilton, 32-15, as 3.5-pt home dogs. I was fortunate enough to be on them there. Last week, however, they came out on the short end of the stick as this time they were blown out, 28-15 by B.C. (I was not on that game). Now they hit the road for the 1st time in 2017 and anticipating a close game, I'll again back them in this spot. The opponent is the defending Grey Cup Champion Ottawa, but the Redblacks have struggled in the defense of their title, opening 0-1-1.

At least Redblacks' backers have profited this year as the team is 2-0 ATS. The first two weeks were both rematches of LY's Grey Cup against Calgary. In Week 1, here at home, it was a 31-31 tie as the Redblacks blew a 14-point lead. The following week, in Calgary, their defense let them down in a 43-39 loss. While the Stampeders are arguably the class of the CFL, you have to be a little concerned over the Redblacks' defense, or rather lack of it, as they've allowed an average of 418 YPG so far. Compare that to Toronto, who has outgained their first two foes by 121 YPG. Granted, that's due to the one dominant performance against Hamilton, but I certainly believe the Argos are more than capable of keeping this one close, if not take the game outright.

The number of sacks, league-wide, continue to decline. But don't tell that to the Argos' defense, which leads the league w/ nine. No other team has more than five. On offense, QB Ricky Ray threw for 500+ yards in Week 1 before predictably coming down to Earth last week against B.C. I look for a bounce back here. What's key to keep in mind here is that Ottawa was a very fortunate Grey Cup winner in 2016. They won the East Division w/ a losing record (8-9-1) and negative point differential (-12) before getting hot in the playoffs. They are due for some major regression in 2017. They are just 2-7 ATS their L9 games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Argos are due to reverse LY's poor finish at the betting window where they closed on an 0-7 ATS run. Take the points. 10* Toronto

8* Winnipeg (9:00 ET): Being that the CFL is a nine-team league, one team is off every week. In Week 1, that was the Blue Bombers, who are eager to build off LY's pretty decent 11-7 SU campaign that saw them qualify for the postseason. Their first opponent will be Saskatchewan, a team I played in Week 1. Catching a generous number, the Rough Riders stayed within the number throughout and eventually lost by just a single point at Montreal. The Riders did outgain the Als in that one, ever so slightly (395-332), but it still wasn't enough as a late FG miss sealed their fate. Here, there's been a change in who's favored, which is always a bit of an interesting proposition. To me, the value resides w/ the rested Blue Bombers.

The Riders will not be lacking for motivation in this, their home opener. Tonight should be special in Regina as the doors are officially opened at brand new Mosiac Stadium. But, something we see across all sports (especially NFL) is that often times, home teams tend to struggle in new stadiums. Might the "pomp and circumstance" tonight in Regina serve as a distraction for the home team? Remember that this was the worst team in the CFL last year at 5-13 straight up and they were outscored by 180 points over the course of the year. They were swept by Winnipeg and while they still did manage to go 2-0 ATS, such as SU/ATS split is no longer possible here now that they're the slight favorite Sat night. Note that they were 4.5-pt dogs for LY's annual visit from the Bombers.

Winnipeg has reason for optimism entering '17. They were 10-3 SU w/ Matt Nichols at the helm and the starting QB is more than ready to go for tonight's season opener. The Bombers also had the best road record in the league LY at 7-2 straight up. I give them the edge at the all-important "pivot" (QB) position w/ Nichols over the wildly inconsistent Kevin Glenn. Glenn did not throw an INT last week, but let's see if that's still the case after this week when he faces the defense that led the league in turnovers last year w/ 59. In its lone game off the bye last year w/ Nichols at the helm, the Bombers went into Montreal and won 32-18. 8* Winnipeg

10* Montreal (10:00 ET): Right off the bat, this seems like a heavy "tax" to lay in a battle of 1-0 teams. Granted, Montreal only won its game by a single point at home, 17-16, over a Saskatchewan side that was generally considered the weakest in the entire CFL last year. But it took a last second FG for Edmonton to prevail in B.C. in Week 1, 30-27, after blowing all of a double digit lead. Coming home is obviously big for the Eskimos and they have to feel confident here knowing that they've won and covered seven straight meetings w/ the Als. But back in their customary role of underdog, Montreal is offering a ton of value in Week 2 as I don't expect them to go down easy, if they even go down at all! Take the points.

The Alouettes were not favored many times in 2016 (just THREE times total and never by more than a field goal!). So I had no problem fading them as seven-point chalk in the opener last week. While that ticket cashed wire-to-wire, I have to admit that I came away impressed w/ the Als defense, which - for a second straight year - appears set to dominate. Last year, they allowed the fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Division and second fewest in the entire league (behind only Calgary, obviously). Allowing only 16 pts in the opener was certainly a good sign, especially when juxtaposed w/ the Edmonton defense which struggled last year and gave up 27 pts in Wk 1. 

Close games have been the rule and not the exception so far this year in the CFL. Four of the five games have been decided by one score (the exception being my 10* Game of the Week for Week 1 - Toronto 32-15 over Hamilton). So that's another reason to want to grab the points here. Last year did see the Eskimos win both meetings by double digits, but I anticipate a far closer affair here. QB Darian Durant didn't post blowaway numbers in the Week 1 victory over the Rough Riders, but he did manage to complete 20 of 31 pass attempts and he wasn't sacked nor did he throw an interception. Expect the Als to be a gritty underdog in this one, keep the game low scoring and as was the case w/ their opponent last week, keep the game within the number throughout. 10* Montreal

10* Toronto (4:00 ET): These two provincial (Ontario) rivals play the final game of the Week 1 CFL slate. Thus far, every game this season has been close w/ last night's 30-27 win by Edmonton at BC being the largest margin of victory by any team this year. That right there leads to automatic consideration of the underdog for this one, especially w/ the dog being at home. The Argos are off a very disappointing 2016 where they went both 5-13 straight up and against the spread. But they did manage to beat the rival Ti-Cats here at BMO Field, 33-21 as a 6.5-point dog. That win and cover happened to snap an 8-game ATS losing streak in the rivalry and I believe there's more to come and the rivalry starts to shift the Argos' way. Take the way. 

As you might expect, a last place finish brought a lot of changes for Toronto this year. There's a new GM, Jim Popp, who for two decades was the architect over in Montreal. He brought over a familiar name to be head coach, that being Marc Trestman, who won a Grey Cup for the Als, not to mention coached in the NFL w/ the Chicago Bears. Trestman should work well w/ veteran QB Ricky Ray, who enters 2017 w/ the fourth most passing yards in the history of the CFL. Furthermore, the Argos were able to reach out to Montreal for another key addition, this one coming on the defensive side of the ball. Shockingly, the 2016 Most Outstanding Defensive Player in the East Division, Bear Woods, was released by the Als. Toronto wasted little time in picking him up and that should lead to immediate dividends on that side of the ball. 

Hamilton has a veteran pivot (QB) of its own, Henry Burris, but it's the Ti-Cats' defense that I'm worried about entering the season. Two key members of what was supposed to be an outstanding secondary - Emanuel Davis and Abdul Kanneh - are both starting the year on the injured list. Look for the experience Ray to exploit those absences. Not only that, but three former Ti-Cats defenders now line up for the Argos. 10* Toronto

8* British Columbia (10:00 ET): I've seen the Leos get some "Grey Cup love" this offseason. Were those prognostications to be anywhere near accurate, one would certainly have to think laying this short number. Last season was a big bounce back campaign in B.C. as HC Wally Bueno's return to the sidelines led to a big improvement in the team's win total from 7 (in 2015) to 12. The Lions' season officially ended in the Western Final w/ a loss to their rival, Calgary, by a lopsided score of 42-15. Of course, you don't need to ask B.C.'s Week 1 opponent, Edmonton, about how tough the Stampeders are. They were swept by the Stamps last season, part of a disappointing 10-8 SU regular season, after taking the Grey Cup home in 2015.

These Western Division rivals split LY's two meetings, the home team winning both times. They also have a history of close matchups w/ the last five meetings, again all won by the home team, decided by seven points or less (one in OT). But I've got reason to believe the Leos roll here in the season opener. The hype coming out of Western Canada certainly seems justified as QB Jonathon Jennings appears ready to break out. This will be his second year starting at the pivot position and he has possibly the best receiving duo in the league at his disposal, Emmanuel Arcenaux and Bryan Burnham, plus the team added Chris Williams via free agency. The Lions should have no problem scoring in 2017 and that should leave an Eskimos defense that regressed badly LY w/ a uneasy feeling. On their own defensive side of the ball, B.C. returns largely all of LY's top talent including a very talented secondary group.

Edmonton lost Derel Walker to the NFL and one of it's major FA signings this past offseason (LB Corey Greenwood) was lost to injury in training camp. This defense is simply nowhere near as stout as the group that brought home the Grey Cup in 2015. Greenwood was brought in to replace the already departed Deon Lacey. QB Mike Reilly admitted that the loss of his top receiver, Walker, will be tough. I expect the Esks to struggle in this one. 8* British Columbia

8* Saskatchewan (7:30 ET): Our 2017 CFL opener features two teams coming off losing campaigns in 2016. In fact, the Rough Riders finished a league-worst 5-13 straight up. Montreal wasn't much better (7-11 SU) and didn't make the playoffs either, losing a tiebreaker w/ Hamilton for the final spot. The Als did sweep the season series last year against the Riders, winning 41-3 here at home and 19-14 (as 6.5-pt dogs) on the road. But for a team that was outscored over the course of the season, this price range seems a bit "rich." Consider this; only TWICE last season were the Alouettes favored to win a game! Take the points in this Week 1 matchup. 

Now, Saskatchewan is already dealing w/ some early season attrition as two receivers - Chad Owens and Rob Bagg - won't be suiting up here in Week 1. But that's alright. Naaman Roosevelt (1,000+ yards) and Ricky Collins Jr (48 catches last year) are still around. I've also seen some consternation over the fact the Riders only wrapped up their preseason slate five days ago in B.C. That, I feel, has only served to drive this line up much higher than it should be. The other big storyline here is that pivot (QB) Darian Durant is now suiting up for the Als opposed to the Rough Riders. Again, just another reason the line is too high. 

On defence, the Riders will be led by Willie Jefferson, who is a strong contender to lead the CFL in sacks this season. Expect Jefferson to make life uncomfortable for former teammate and now opponent, Durant. Last season was the first since '12 that the Als swept the season series, so history is on the Rough Riders side here as it's been a LONG time since they dropped three in row to this particular opponent. The Riders also made a GREAT signing in the offseason, bringing in top offensive lineman Derek Dennis over from Calgary. Last season, Dennis was the top OL in the entire league. I see Montreal's D taking a step back this year. 8* Saskatchewan

10* Ottawa (6:00 ET): The Stampeders are the overwhelming favorites here, but it is the REDBLACKS that are in this game for a second consecutive season. Obviously, there is no denying that the Stamps should be favored as they were - by far - the best team in the league this year. They come into the Grey Cup sporting a 15-2-1 SU record and have outscored opponents by over 200 pts over the course of the season. For the sake of comparison, Ottawa has actually been OUTSCORED this season. Calgary just rolled B.C. in the Western Final, 42-15, and led that game 32-0 at halftime. But let's not discount what Ottawa did, upsetting Edmonton 35-23 as two-point dogs in spite of a -3 turnover margin. I'm taking the points here.

Since Ottawa returned to the league three years ago, these teams have met a total of six times. Calgary has four wins, all by double digits. But the other two games have seen Ottawa produce a win and a tie. The tie came earlier this year and while Calgary won the rematch in Alberta, 48-23, let's note the line. They were eight-point favorites at McMahon Stadium in September. Now they're laying more points at a neutral setting. For what it's worth, the Stamps two losses and tie all came away from home this year. With this game being played in Toronto, the REDBLACKS should "feel more at home" and have the edge in crowd support.

As always, we can use public perception to our benefit. The CFL certainly isn't the most "public" sport, but overwhelmingly, everyone is picking the Stampeders to win here. Because of that, we have an inflated line. Because they clinched the Western Division, Calgary has played only one meaningful game in the L7 weeks (last week). For 7.5 quarters, Ottawa played them really tough in the regular season, not just in the tie, but the rematch in Calgary was actually an eight-point game w/ just five minutes remaining. The Stamps scored two late TD's there for somewhat of a misleading final. Ottawa has the best passing attack in the league (6,000+ yards!) and QB Henry Burris didn't even play in either regular season matchup w/ Calgary. Meanwhile, the Redblacks defense held Jerome Messam to just 128 yards total in the two games. I look for this to be a close and exciting Grey Cup! 10* Ottawa

8* Calgary (3:00 ET): The more things change, the more they stay the same. Calgary is yet again the best team in the CFL w/ a 7-1-1 record and +93 point differential. No other team in the league has outscored its opponents by more than 34 points this season. Since losing in Week 1 (by 2 at BC, I was on the right side of that one!), the Stampeders haven't tasted defeat since. They enter Mark's Labour Day Weekend on a six-game win streak and what's been most impressive is they're not just winning, but covering as well. The team is 7-1 ATS since dropping the opener and they've been the favorite in all but one of those games. Two wins over second place British Columbia and last week's 30-24 triumph over Hamilton have clearly established the Stamps as the team to beat.

Meanwhile, Edmonton has definitely taken a bit of a step back from LY's Grey Cup campaign. They're only 5-4 SU and have the worst ATS record in the league at 2-5-2 ATS. After leading the league in defense (19.6 PPG allowed) in last year's championship season, that unit has regressed all the way down to eighth (27.4 PPG allowed) so far in 2016. That's the easiest reason to cite for the struggles thus far, though it does appear they're righting the ship w/ three consecutive victories here in August. The Eskimos won but didn't cover last week against Saskatchewan as they were big 13.5-pt favorites (won 33-25). That victory also saw them lose starting RB Jon White to injury, potentially a major loss moving forward.

For those of you that are potentially "new" to the world of CFL betting, this provincial rivalry is probably the most fierce in the league. The Stampeders had beaten the Eskimos seven straight times before losing three in a row to them last season, including the Western Division Final. So this now becomes a big revenge spot for them at McMahon Stadium. Very interesting is the fact Calgary is a perfect 11-0 ATS its L11 games on Labour Day Weekend while Edmonton is 0-11 ATS! That's no coincidence as the rivals play every year on the holiday. The bottom line is that the Stamps are 37-9-1 (.787) when Bo Levi Mitchell starts at QB, unbeaten at home this year (4-0) and #1 in the league in defense (20.6 PPG). They've also allowed the fewest sacks and have the top turnover margin. Laying less than a touchdown in this spot, I like them to win and cover. 8* Calgary

10* Calgary (10:00 ET): Like most, I have these rated as the top two teams in the league coming into Week 9. Already, this will be the third matchup of the season between Calgary and British Columbia. I cashed the Leos in Wk 1 when, here at home, they upset the Stamps by a score of 20-18 as 2.5-pt dogs. I came back w/ the Stamps in the rematch in Week 6 and while they did exact revenge, they failed to cover, winning only 44-41 as 5.5-pt chalk. A big key there, which ended up superseeding the revenge angle, was the fact B.C. was off a bye. The rematch ended up going into OT after Calgary rallied back from 15 pts down at the start of the 4Q. For this rubber match, I'm sticking with the Stamps as the rest is equal and they are a much better value. Take the points.

So, the Stamps have gone from a 2.5 pt fave in British Columbia to a slight dog this time around. Yes, they lost that first meeting, but they led in the fourth quarter until a Lions punt return that ended up deciding the game (blocked three punts in the game). Though the Leos are off to the solid 5-2 start, it has not come w/o a fair share of close calls. There was a comeback from 13 pts down to beat Saskatchewan in Wk 4. Last week, they blew a 32-12 halftime lead and needed a late TD to escape Hamilton 45-38.  That's twice in the last three weeks they've allowed at least 38 points. A real statistical oddity is that the Lions are 0-6 ATS the L6 years in Week 9. An additional note on the line is that this is the most points BC will be laying since they were beaten outright in Week 3 (here at home) by Toronto.

The non-cover against BC is Calgary's lone ATS loss in the L6 wks. They just beat Saskatchewan twice in the L2 wks, holding the Riders to just 25 pts total. Over the L3 years, this team is now 34-8-1 straight up, easily the league's best record during that time. Another key here is that Calgary is 5-1 vs. the Western Division this year while B.C. is just 2-1 in division matchups. (The West is the much tougher division). As alluded to above, the Calgary defense has been anchoring this team, allowing a league-low 21.7 points per game. This is just the second time the Stamps have been a dog this year and they covered the first (tied Ottawa). 10* Calgary

10* Hamilton (10:00 ET): Both teams here have gotten to enjoy more than a full week's rest coming into this Week 8 matchup, but I believe that the time off was more beneficial to the underdog Hamilton than it was to the favored Leos. I don't really believe in the concept of "momentum," but suffice to say B.C probably didn't need or want the eight days off after drilling Montreal on the road, 38-18 as a one-point choice. That was their third straight cover, all on the road, improving them to 5-1 at the betting window this year. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats come in off an embarrassing 37-11 home defeat at the hands of Winnipeg where they were 5.5-pt favorites. They'll certainly be eager to bounce back in this spot & I'll take the points.

The big news for this week's game, from the Hamilton perspective, is that they'll have QB Zach Collaros back under center for the 1st time in 2016. Last September, he suffered an ACL tear and has been out ever since. That was a big blow to the franchise. Remember that last season saw Collaros right in the middle of MOP (Most Outstanding Player) discussion. With him in the lineup, the team has gone 16-9 SU the L2 years and made an appearance in the 2014 Grey Cup. Without him, they are just 6-11 SU (3-3 this year). Last year, scoring dropped by more than 14 PPG and the offense gained 62.5 fewer yards per game when  Collaros wasn't in the lineup. His return, in my view, makes the Ti-Cats the favorite to win the East. Don't forget that Hamilton sports the second-ranked defense in the league right now, giving up just 25.2 points and 310 yards per game.

This is also a revenge spot for the Ti-Cats, who lost 28-3 at home to B.C. back in Week 2. That was the first of three games this year where Hamilton turned the ball over at least four times. Not surprisingly, those games also represent their three losses on the year. Road teams still are 17-10-1 SU this year in CFL and Hamilton comes in sporting a 3-1 mark away from Tim Horton's while B.C. has scored just 14 and 20 points in its two home games thus far. With their leader back, ample rest and revenge, I believe we have a live dog on our hands this week. 10* Hamilton

10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): We're nearly through seven weeks of CFL play and there's only one team that has yet to cover a single time. That would be defending Grey Cup Champion Edmonton, who comes into this week's battle vs. Ottawa at 0-4-1 ATS. The Eskimos are only 2-3 straight up as well, so this team has clearly fallen short of expectations. The season got off to an auspicious start when they lost outright, on their own field, to Ottawa in a rematch of LY's Grey Cup. Saturday represents a chance at revenge for that 45-37 (as six-point favorites) loss. Looking at the two lines, I'd say the oddsmakers have overadjusted here as the REDBLACKS don't exactly come into this game in top form either (B2B losses). Take the points.

I'd say the most disappointing result to date for the Eskimos took place last week as they lost again at home, this time to Winnipeg, 30-23 as nine-point chalk. That game saw Edmonton fall into an early 11-0 hole and trail throughout as they allowed a backup pivot (QB) and former teammate, Mike Nicholls, to complete 78 percent of his pass attempts for over 300 yards. Clearly, something is wrong with this defense, which led the league in points allowed last year. There's been a stunning 13.2 PPG increase from 2015, but the season is still young and there's time to turn this around. Though Ottawa is actually the top offensive team in the league right now, I'd consider that shocking as they've already had to employ four different quarterbacks in just five games. 

I think it's important to note that Ottawa's Week 1 win in Edmonton came in overtime, which only came about after they made a 55-yard field goal w/ no time left in regulation. It was their first win over the Eskimos since returning to the league in 2014. This will be the first time they are favored. They have lost outright as faves each of the L2 weeks, first to Saskatchewan and then Toronto, and have not won at home this season (0-1-1). Edmonton has pretty impressive offense in its own right w/ QB Mike Reilly currently on pace to break the franchise record for passing yards in a season. He leads the league in that category and has now thrown for 300+ yards in eight consecutive contests dating back to last year. If he does so again here, he would tie a CFL record. 10* Edmonton

10* Calgary (10:00 ET): Back in Week 1, I took BC when they upset the Stamps, 20-18 as 2.5-pt home dogs. That was one of the few wins by a home team in the first few weeks of the season. It also required a come from behind effort from the Leos, who trailed 17-12 entering the final quarter. They actually never led until a 4Q punt return, which proved to be the difference in the game. How ironic that it was a punt return for a TD that won the game for BC as earlier in the game Calgary had actually blocked three punts (but failed to take advantage). One of the three resulted in a first and goal from the one, but the Stampeders failed to score. Clearly, this is a big revenge game as far as Calgary is concerned and I think they win big.

Since losing in Week 1, the Stamps have not tasted defeat again. I cashed my 10* CFL Game of the Year on them in Week 2 when they destroyed Winnipeg, 36-22. Following that, they tied Ottawa (on the road) 26-26, but then recouped off a bye to beat up the Bombers again, this time on the road, 33-18 as five-point chalk. Despite a 2-1-1 mark, I would still consider this perhaps the best team in the league. Keep in mind that this is just their second home game of the season and not only have they covered six of their last seven games overall here at McMahon Stadium, but they are also 6-1 ATS the L7 times hosting BC. I can't say enough about the job done by pivot (QB) Bo Levi Mitchell, who has now thrown a TD pass in 19 consecutive games and is 30-7-1 overall as a starter.

Yes, I'm fully aware that BC is off a bye here. Like Calgary, through the years we've seen the Leos do quite well with the added week of rest. But not here. Note that while they did win their last game by 13 pts, they actually trailed Saskatchewan by 13 earlier in the game. It was their largest come from behind victory in eight seasons. Going back to last season, this team is just 2-6 ATS following a SU win. The win over the Riders also came at a price as two starters were lost to injury. Three outright wins thus far is impressive, but the bottom line is that Calgary is rarely asked to lay this few points at home. The revenge angle absolutely matters here and I'll lay the points. 10* Calgary

10* Toronto (7:30 ET): Both of these Eastern Division rivals will have been off for at least 10 days when they take the field Monday night at BMO Field. Both are also coming off humbling defeats. Toronto's came here at home, 30-20 against Ottawa, leaving them 2-2 on the young season. Montreal, meanwhile, got crushed 31-7 by Hamilton, which leaves them at 1-2.  Interestingly enough, the Argonauts have now lost both home games, but are 2-0 on the road. The Alouettes have lost both of their home games, but are 1-0 on the road. These unusual dichotomies will come to an end here, however, as I'll call for the Argos to win big. Lay the points.

Of course, home teams across the Great White North have struggled this season. Incredibly, they are just 4-13-1 straight up in all games. That's pretty remarkable. Eventually though, the tide will turn. We saw Saskatchewan win at home on Friday, for starters. Now it's Toronto's turn. Note that they did lead Ottawa 13-0 here before the wheels came off (scored 30-7 the rest of the way). Offensively, the Argos are having their issues, but right now Montreal has it much worse as the Als come in averaging just 14.0 points per game and have scored a total of 20 the last two games. These home struggles for Toronto and the rest of the league just seem odd. One thing is for certain; the Argos remember a 34-2 loss here to the Als last season.

I mentioned Toronto's offense earlier and it is struggling. They are last in the league in YPG, which is quite uncharacteristic for a Scott Milanovich coached team. Over the L4 years, his offenses have ranked third, fourth, fourth and sixth respectively. While that's a downward trajectory, this group has nowhere to go but up right now. One good thing is they haven't turned the ball over in three weeks. The defense, I though, did it's job vs. the REDBLACKS last week. That game was basically decided on a punt return for touchdown. Yes, Kevin Glenn returns at pivot (QB) this week for the Als, but this team is just not right presently as multiple injuries have hurt them, literally and figuratively. 10* Toronto

10* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): These are the two teams that have already had bye weeks. Both are also 0-1. Edmonton, the defending Grey Cup champion, has had two weeks to prepare here after suffering an opening week loss to Ottawa at home. That was a Grey Cup rematch and saw the Eskimos lose 45-37 (as 6-pt favorites) in overtime while getting outgained 569-433. Had it not been for a +3 turnover margin, Edmonton likely doesn't even get into OT. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan was the last team to start its season and also fell at home, 30-17 to Toronto, a game where I won w/ the Under. Despite losing outright, the Rough Riders actually outgained the Argos, 385-245. I'm taking the points here.

If you've followed the CFL at all, then you know the first two weeks have seen underdogs "clean up." All four won outright in Week 1. A favorite finally covered in the final game of Week 2 (Calgary over Winnipeg), which as you know was my 10* Game of the Year. This line opened as the biggest line of the young CFL season to date. It's a clear reaction to Edmonton losing their first game at home and that Saskatchewan finished 2015 w/ the worst record in the league (3-15). But I expect the Rough Riders to keep this one close throughout. Note that they have lost seven of the past nine meetings with the Eskimos dating back to '13. But six of those games have been decided by eight points or less.

Playing in a new offense and coming off an ACL injury which robbed him of his 2015 season, Saskatchewan pivot (QB) Darian Durant really impressed me last week. He completed 31 of 48 pass attempts for 308 yards. He was not the reason the Riders lost the game; it was pretty much the two non-offensive TD's Toronto scored. Remember that Edmonton's defense just gave up nearly 600 yards of offense in its first game on a frightening 9.2 yards per play. So, I expect Saskatchewan to score more this week than they did last. Once again, taking the points is the way to go "North of the Border." 10* Saskatchewan

10* Calgary (10:00 ET): In case you didn't know, all four favorites lost outright in CFL Week 1. I went against three of them and two will play here. Winnipeg lost first as the Bombers went down courtesy of Montreal, 22-14 as 2.5-pt home chalk. We knew the Als defense might be very good, but that was a downright pitiful showing from the Blue Bombers. As for Calgary, they played the final game of the weekend and suffered what was likely the most crushing loss, 20-18 at B.C. They should be quite irritated as a a result and I anticipate them dominating a division foe that they have owned for some time now. Going back to the final meeting of the 2011 season, the Stamps have taken 9 of the previous 10 meetings, six of them by double digits. Lay the points here w/ what will be an angry favorite out for retribution.

Calgary's offense was not getting the job done last week, but certainly had chances with THREE blocked punts in the first half. But it was another key special teams play, a fourth quarter punt return for touchdown by B.C. that swung the game. I think that it's critical to remember the Stampeders were one of the two best teams in the league a year ago w/ a 14-4 SU regular season. At home, they were a dominant 9-1 straight up with an average margin of victory of 12.1 points per game. Winnipeg was the lowest scoring team in the league on the road at just 21.1 PPG. It's important to note that Calgary led last week for the entirety of the first three quarters and did not relinquish the lead until allowing the punt return. It's a game they feel they "should have had" and now it's time to take things out on a lesser opponent.

Meanwhile things go from "bad to worse" for the Bombers here as they'll be w/o WR Weston Dressler. While Dressler was lost early in Week 1, he had already made three pretty big catches by that point and the offense clearly suffered without his services. Considering the kind of offensive line issues that are present here and what Montreal was able to do last week, I expect the Stamps' defensive line to have a field day. Their offense - led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell and RB Jerome Messam - should put up big numbers here as well. 10* Calgary

10* British Columbia (10:00 ET): So far, home teams are 0-2 SU/ATS this CFL season, but here we have our lone home dog of the week, British Columbia, who is catching points against Calgary in a renewal of a long-standing Western Division rivalry. It's a rivalry that the Stampeders have really owned going back to the end of 2014 w/ five consecutive wins and covers. But I feel tonight's season opener marks a breakthrough for the Leos, who will be welcoming back Wally Buono to the sidelines after a four-year sabbatical. Take the points.

Three of Calgary's four regular season losses last year came on the road. Them being favored here in B.C. is somewhat foreign territory. In recent years, there have been a couple times where the line closed as a pick 'em, but one would have to go back a very long time to find the last time the Stamps were actually favored to win a game here at B.C. Place.  It's a bit of a new era in Calgary with RB Jon Cornish retiring and John Hufnagel turning over the headset to Dave Dickenson, who makes his head coaching debut. The Stamps also lost long-time DC Rich Stubler. Do not be surprised if this perennial power stumbles a bit in 2016, at least early on in the season.

The return of Buono, one of four head coaching changes in the West Division alone, should bring back fond memories for Lions fans as the last year he coached (2011), the team ended up winning the Grey Cup. Of course, it's not as if Buono lost familiarity with the organization as he'd been serving as GM for the last four seasons. I feel not enough people are talking about the Leos right now as they are coming off a 7-11 SU season, but they're certainly undervalued in this revenge spot as they will take the field w/ a 35-9 playoff loss and 31-21 preseason loss fresh in their minds.  10* British Columbia

    

10* Montreal (7:35 ET): The Alouettes will try and join Hamilton at 1-0 atop the Eastern Division as they open the season in Winnipeg. Though off a disappointing 6-12 (SU) campaign last year, the Als are better than most people think. Last year's team was not as bad as that record as they suffered six losses by six points or less. Five of those defeats were by four points or fewer and came during a crippling 2-5 start to the season. They were actually outscored by only 14 pts over the course of the entire season! Compare that to Winnipeg, who was just one game worse in the standing (5-13 SU), yet posted a league-worst -149 point differential. The road team getting points here is an exception value. Take the points.

The biggest offseason acquisition in Manitoba was that of RB Andrew Harris, who hopes to jump start an anemic Blue Bombers' rushing attack that was fourth worst in the CFL last year. Be Harris alone can likely not resuscitate a franchise that has stood dormant for many seasons. Winnipeg has lost 11 or more games each of the past four seasons and despite bringing in Harris, there's little signs of upward mobility in the tough Western Division this year. Yes, the injury to pivot (QB) Drew Willy was a killer last year, but this simply was not a good team. It's going to take awhile for all the new pieces to gel. Oddsmakers have pegged the Bombers to win the fewest games in the CFL this season and I'm inclined to agree. Their offensive line gave up 59 sacks last year.

Montreal will be turning to 37-year old Kevin Glenn as their starter to open the season. This offense struggled in 2015, but the defense was actually one of the best in the league and should be again in 2016. With a full offseason to learn the offense, many are predicting that Glenn will be a lot better this year. Remember that last year was the first time since returning to the league (in 1996!) that the Als failed to make the playoffs. After actually losing to the Bombers five straight times, Montreal finally beat them in the final meeting of last year's reg season - by 21 - and I see them coming through again tonight. 10* Montreal

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Provincial rivals open this CFL campaign w/ the Argos hosting the Ti-Cats. Both teams went 10-8 last year and thus met in the first round of the playoffs w/ Hamilton coming out on top (at home) 25-22. Toronto supporters will want to focus on the pivot (QB) situation here as well as the revenge angle, but I don't think we should be selling Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli short just yet. All things considered, the value is on the dog in this one.

Masoli looked great in the 2H vs. Ottawa in LY's Eastern Final and I'm confident he will step in and play well for Hamilton under starter Zach Collaros returns. He looked good in both preseason games, completing 15 of 24 passes for 179 yards.  CJ Gable is probably the league's best dual-threat running back. Defensively, this team gave up the fewest points in the East Division last season and was #3 overall in the league. Perhaps most important of all though is that they took all four matchups w/ Toronto last season. The three regular season wins all came by eight points or greater.

With a new outdoor stadium and a healthy Ricky Ray, there is plenty of optimism surrounding the Toronto team right now. But there are still big-time question marks defensively and I feel the Ti-Cats will be able to score enough points here to keep it interesting, if not pull off an outright victory. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the Boatmen here. Not only did Hamilton sweep last year's season series, but they have covered 9 of the previous 10 meetings.  10* Hamilton

10* Hamilton (1:00 ET):  This game is for first place in the East Division, which is huge because the division winner gets a first round bye come playoff time.  Both Hamilton and Ottawa already have the "x" next to their names in the standings, signifying they've clinched a playoff berth, but while they own matching 10-6 SU records, that's misleading in the sense that the Ti-Cats have a league-leading +161 point differential, but the Redblacks have actually been outscored by the opposition this season! Half of Ottawa's wins have come by four points or less, so their record could certainly be worse. These teams have not played yet this season, but will close the regular season w/ a home and home. Here at Tim Horton's Field, it's advantage Hamilton.

At one point, Hamilton was 10-0 SU at Tim Horton's Field since it opened for business in the middle of last season. But, shockingly, they've since dropped three of four home games. The problem here is obviously the loss of QB Zach Collaros as the team's overall play has declined greatly since he was injured and last week brought their most humiliating defeat of the 2015 campaign, 40-13 at B.C. But they had won B2B games prior to that w/ the defense allowing only 26 total points. The three-game home losing streak was made up entirely of close games, two of them coming to Calgary and Edmonton. They've since blown out Saskatchewan here, 30-15, as 8.5-point chalk.  Given the home record, this line is still a bargain on the Ti-Cats, who are outscoring teams by 15.9 PPG this year when priced as a home favorite. They are also 4-1 SU/ATS off a loss.

Momentum is often overrated, so when you hear Ottawa has it, it's noise you should largely ignore. Yes, they've won six of eight overall, but four of those wins came at the expense of Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, who are a combined 7-26 straight up.  But the biggest reason to be leery of the Redblacks right now is a knee injury suffered by QB Henry Burris last week vs. the Bombers. I would readily concede that the Redblacks would have a major edge at the pivot position if Burris were 100 percent. But he's not and has been held out of practice this week, leaving his playing status for this game very much up in the air.  It's going to be an angry group of Ti-Cats after last week's loss and I look for them to bounce back. 10* Hamilton

8* Montreal (1:05 ET):  This is a critical game for the Als, who need to win here in order to hold on to their "crossover" (i.e. final playoff) spot.  Winnipeg did them a slight favor Saturday by going to B.C. and winning, but that gives the Blue Bombers five wins on the season as well. The Als are 5-8 SU and the only team not to have yet played a game here in Week 16. That makes this a pretty favorable spot on Thanksgiving weekend (Canadian version) as they take on the Argos, who is coming off a critical home and home sweep of another division rival, Ottawa, including a 38-35 win Tuesday. That makes this Toronto's second game in less than a week while it's Montreal's 1st in 12 days. Take the points.

Despite the 5-8 SU record, the Alouettes only have a point differential of -2 and they were "in the black" prior to a humbling 39-17 road loss to the Redblacks on Oct 1. That made it B2B embarrassing setbacks away from home as only a few days prior they fell in Saskatchewan by 12 as two-point favorites.  But a return home should do the team some good, particularly the defense, which allows just 16.3 points per game here at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium. In four of the past five home games, the Als have held their opponents to 15 pts or less. That includes wins over both division leaders, Calgary and Hamilton. With a 20-year streak of making the playoffs on the line, this first meeting of the year vs. Toronto sets up as Montreal's biggest game of the season to date. 

The Argos, despite now being 8-5, have been outscored this year - by 33 points. While the Als have suffered five defeats this season by four points or less, Toronto has no such losses and in fact is now 4-0 SU in games decided by that slim margin. That obviously includes a 38-35 win at Ottawa last Tuesday, yet another in a series of come from behind efforts we've seen from this team this season. But not only is this the Argos' second game in less than a week, it's actually their third straight road game. They have the fellow Rogers' Centre resident Blue Jays to thank for that. The bottom line is that it's a bad spot and the home team is desperate for a win (and taking points to boot). 8* Montreal

10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): What a difference a couple of weeks make! Less than a month ago, it would have been considered unfathomable to have the Eastern Division leading Ti-Cats as a home dog, even w/ the defending Grey Cup champs coming to town. Hamilton had never lost here at Tim Horton's Field in 10 tries (opened last season) and was routinely blowing out its opponents. However, somewhat shockingly, they've since dropped two of three on their home turf. That includes a loss two weeks ago to Edmonton, 25-18, which was the Ti-Cats' lowest scoring output in over two months. With the benefit of a bye and a shift in the linesmakers perception, I think the hosts are an unbelievable value in this battle of CFL division leaders.

Even with the two recent losses, Hamilton is still outscoring its opponents by a full 16 points per game this season at Tim Horton's Field.  I continue to have them rated as the top team in the league, so in no way should they be a home dog. Calgary, as red hot as they are (won 7 of 8), has survived a number of close calls this season w/ many of them coming on the road. Last week's 25-23 win at Winnipeg marked the sixth time that they won a game by five points or less. One of those was the season opener, at home, against the Ti-Cats. It was their seventh straight win over Hamilton (11-1 SU L12 meetings), but really the Ti-Cats should have won as they never trailed until the final gun when the Stamps kicked a GW 50-yard field goal. On the road, Calgary is just 3-3 SU this season, as opposed to 7-0 SU at home. 

Now I obviously do need to touch on the absence of Hamilton QB Zach Collaros. That's the primary reason for the dramatic shift in the line, but I think it's an overadjustment. With him in, I would have made the Ti-Cats about an eight-point favorite. We're talking a 10-point swing then w/o him in the lineup, which is just too much. Teams coming off the bye have gone 8-5 SU including four consecutive wins. Turnovers have also been huge for Hamilton as they are +18 in that department this year, which is 16 better than the #2 team! Look for backup Jeff Matthews to come in and play well, supplemented by an effective run game.  Finally, don't forget that this is rematch from LY's Grey Cup, so the Ti-Cats have major revenge on their minds. 10* Hamilton

10* Montreal (7:35 ET):  I've been waiting on this spot for awhile.  The Als have double revenge and are the better team, in my opinion, regardless of what the respective records may say. The two losses to the REDBLACKS this year have been by a total of seven points, one at home and one on the road, both w/ Montreal favored. Now the linesmakers have "changed their tune" with Ottawa laying points. Though a "nice story" at 7-5, the Redblacks (one year removed from expansion) are by no means a complete team. They've been outscored this season by 41 points, a margin that only three teams in the league are worse than. Meanwhile, despite its own 5-7 record, Montreal is +20 in scoring differential, trailing only the "big three" of Calgary, Edmonton and Hamilton. Take the points.

The Als have some really nice wins this season. In Week 2, they beat the Grey Cup Champions (Calgary) 29-11 and then last month went to Hamilton (as 11-pt dogs) and became the first road team to ever win at the Ti-Cats "new" stadium (opened last year). However, that 26-23 victory over the Eastern Division leaders has been the exception and not the rule as the Als have gone a horrible 2-5 SU in games decided by four points or less. That does make them a solid value taking points, however, which is something they've done only six times so far and the ATS results in those games is 5-0-1 w/ four outright upsets!  Also adding to the value here is the fact the Als are off a bad loss last week, in Saskatchewan, to the previously 1-11 Rough Riders.  Multiple interceptions being returned for scores were the culprit in that game and as a result Rakeem Cato is back, replacing Jonathan Crompton at the pivot position. I think that's the right call. Cato is 4-0 as a starter this year and w/ the team down 15-1 last week, he was able to come in and throw for 200+ yards and a pair of TD's.

With just a one-game lead for the cross-over spot (final playoff berth), this is an absolutely huge game for the Alouettes. They blew a chance to go up two games on BC and 2.5 on Winnipeg last week.  Meanwhile, Ottawa is also off a loss, theirs coming here at home to Toronto, which snapped a three-game win streak.  What's interesting is that was just the second time the Redbacks were favored all season. That makes sense w/ the negative YTD scoring differential.   Even though they've beaten Montreal twice, I don't think the shift in the line is warranted for this third matchup.  10* Montreal

8* Calgary (8:30 ET):  The first time these two Western Division rivals met, it was actually a close game as the Stampeders survived in a 26-25 victory where they did not cover the seven-point spread. But here in Winnipeg, four weeks ago, the rematch was far more lopsided. It again went the way of the Stamps as they rolled to an easy 36-8 win and cover despite the fact that the Blue Bombers were off a bye that week.  Since opening the year 0-6 against the spread (five games decided by five pts or less), the reigning Grey Cup Champions have finally begun to resemble "old form" w/ wins in six of their last seven contests (only loss at Edmonton) including last week, 35-23 over B.C. as DD home favorites. I'm laying the points here.

Winnipeg, as I've said before, is probably the worst team in the league right now and, yes, I'm not forgetting 1-10 Saskatchewan (whose only win is at the Bombers' expense). You'll recall that I went against them last week as they played at rested Montreal, who proceeded to hand them a lopsided 35-14 defeat. The loss dropped the Bombers to 1-5 SU/ATS their last six overall and where things get really ugly is when you look at the fact they've now been outscored by 129 points in 12 games, easily the worst differential in the league. The offense could not find the end zone last week until the fourth quarter. Remember, they're still w/o QB Drew Willy and Matt Nichols is the franchise's ninth QB in just the last four seasons. This is also a team that's used a total of 42 different starters this season. Something else that I think matters here is Winnipeg is on a short week; they last played Sunday while Calgary last played Friday.

Meanwhile, a big key for the Stampeders has been the health of their QB, Bo Levi Mitchell, now 24-5 SU all-time as a starter.  They are just one of two teams (Ottawa) in the entire league this season to not have endured an injury at the pivot position.  On defense, they're really starting to come around and last week vs. BC didn't give up a single touchdown (both Lions TD's came via special teams). That same defense held Winnipeg to just 136 yds of total offense in the last meeting, which was their sixth straight win here in Manitoba and 12th in the L13 meetings overall vs. the Bombers. By the way, RB Jon Cornish ran for a season-high 120 yds in the first meeting as well. Look out for the second quarter where the Stampeders have a +83 scoring differential for the year.  8* Calgary

10* Montreal (1:00 ET):  The Als are off a bye here and couldn't have asked for a better opponent to welcome in as Winnipeg just might be the worst team in the league. (Yes, I'm even including 1-10 Saskatchewan in that discussion). Both teams here have just four wins to their credit, but the respective point differentials illustrate just how phony a team's won-loss record can be as 4-6 Montreal has actually outscored its opponents (by 11 pts) this year while the Bombers are a woeful -108 in terms of points scored vs. allowed (league worst). Montreal actually has a couple of great wins to its credit, beating Calgary here at home and Hamilton on the road. But they did lose to the Bombers (in Winnipeg), making this a revenge spot. I'll lay the points.

When Montreal won at Tim Horton's Stadium on August 27th, they became the first road team to beat Hamilton there - ever! (Stadium opened last year).  Unfortunately, the Als then followed that up w/ a 23-13 outright loss at home to B.C. (six turnovers), a team they'd just beaten on the road two weeks prior. Teams off the bye week have performed quite well, however. Last week, it was Ottawa (as a 3-pt dog) winning at B.C. That improved the record of teams coming off a bye week to 8-3 ATS this year.  When the Als were off their first bye of the season, they failed to win straight up, but still left Calgary w/ the cash, covering as five-point dogs in a three-point loss.  This time, they are at home and facing a bad team, one that is off a rare win and 1-4 SU on the road, getting outscored by 14.8 points per game.

  In the CFL's "crossover" era, the East Division rarely sweeps both spots (top two finishers in each division guaranteed playoff spot, followed by next two best records, regardless of division).  Don't rule that out happening this year. That will keep Montreal motivated down the stretch and in fact the winner of this game will be in position to capture that second "crossover" spot. Home teams are winning at a higher rate than usual in the CFL this year, a kind of success that has eluded the Als so far (just 2-3 SU at home) despite holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG here at Molson.  The best news of all for Montreal in this game is that they will be getting their starting QB, Jonathan Crompton, back (out since Wk 1).  Meanwhile, Winnipeg is still w/o its starting QB (Drew Willy) and its top receiver. 10* Montreal

10* Edmonton (9:30 ET):  They say "insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."  Well, I consider myself to be a pretty sane person, but for the second week in a row I'm taking the Eskimos to snap their long losing streak to the rival Stampeders. Last week's 16-7 loss in Calgary (+4) marked the team's 12th consecutive loss in the rivalry, including LY's Western Division Final. I think if anyone is going insane in this situation, it has to be the Eskimos themselves. Well, now they're at home (where they're 4-1 and outscoring teams by an average of 15.4 points per game) and of importance is the fact they haven't dropped B2B games this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS off their previous three losses.  They'll be supremely motivated here.

The Calgary defense was the story last week, holding Edmonton to only seven points and 203 total yards.  Both were season lows for the Eskimos. Meanwhile, for the Stamps, it was the third time in the last four games they held their opponent under 10 pts.  After an 0-6 ATS start, the reigning Grey Cup Champs have begun to resemble the previous year's form.  But it remains to be seen if they can turn in a similar performance on the road. They're allowing a full 4.5 more PPG on the road compared to at home and are just 2-2 straight up.  Eventually, this run has to end for Calgary over Edmonton and I think Saturday night at Commonwealth Stadium is the time and place. I have the two teams rated fairly evenly and cannot fathom how one-sided the rivalry has been.

Things will also be different this go-around for the Eskimos in terms of personnel.  Most notably, Mike Reilly is back at the pivot position after coming on in relief last week. Reilly is a major upgrade over James Franklin, who could not move the ball against the tough Stamps defense.  I look for him to be the difference maker here.  In front of Reilly will be a re-tooled offensive line, one that now has Chris Greaves, who was acquired in a trade w/ Winnipeg this week.  This is the week for the Eskimos. 10* Edmonton

10* Edmonton (4:35 ET):  The respective teams in this provincial rivalry never need an excuse to get up for this game, but the 2015 Labour Day Weekend meeting carries an even added importance as the Eskimos and Stampeders are separated by just one game in the standings. Calgary, winners of four straight and the defending Grey Cup Champs, are in the lead, but I feel Edmonton has actually been the better team this season as they still have a slightly better YTD point differential even though the Stamps have romped to victory over two lesser opponents (Ottawa & Winnipeg) in the L3 weeks. But, to me, this one all comes down to revenge as the Esks lost all five meetings w/ Calgary in 2014, including the Western Division Final.  This is their "Game of the Year" and I'll take the points.

Close games have somewhat ruled the day this season in CFL as almost half of the 42 regular season games played (18) have been decided by four points or less.  Calgary certainly has played its fair share of close contests six of nine games have been decided by three points or less. Hence, they're only 2-7 at the betting window and not really a great candidate to be laying points right now. They did just crush the Blue Bombers last week, but as I said yday, Winnipeg may be the worst team in the league. Meanwhile, Edmonton bounced back from an ugly 29-point home loss to Hamilton by blasting Toronto 38-15 in the first career start of pivot man James Franklin, who threw for an impressive 316 yards.  But more impressive to me is still the Eskimos defense, which has allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of the last eight games. They are #1 in the league at just 18.4 PPG allowed.

But the big story here is obviously the long losing streak, which actually goes beyond last year's 0-5 SU record vs. the Stamps (also 0-5 ATS). Incredibly, they have not beaten Calgary in four years, losing 11 straight times overall in the regular season. They are 0-9 ATS the L9 Labour Day matchups, but I think that is due to turn around w/ this year's team, which I feel is superior to last year even w/o QB Mike Reilly. Again, I'm taking the points here, but do not be surprised if it's an outright win. 10* Edmonton

8* Hamilton (1:05 ET):  Well, it was bound to happen sooner rather than later. I just didn't think it would be last week.  For the first time since it opened LY, the Ti-Cats lost at Tim Hortons Stadium, falling outright to Montreal, 26-23 as 11-pt chalk.  The issue I saw was their usually sound defense allowing 130 yards rushing. This week is a shot at redemption for Hamilton, who hosts a Toronto team they've already beaten here at home this season, by a score of 34-18. Predictably, the line is noticeably higher for the rematch of co-Eastern Division leaders, but it should be as the Ti-Cats are clearly the better squad. Not only have they outscored opponents by a league-high 133 points this year, but despite their own 6-3 SU record, the Argos are actually -7 in point differential. Lay the points.

I always think that the sign of a good team is that they have many blowout wins. Hamilton certainly fits that bill. Not only have they already beaten rival Toronto by 16, but they then followed that up w/ B2B 30-pt victories over Winnipeg & BC, followed by a very impressive 29-pt win at Edmonton. I have the Ti-Cats rated as the #1 team in the league by a fairly comfortable margin right now. Meanwhile, Toronto has been fortunate to win a series of close calls this year. Five of their six wins have been by less than a TD & the majority of them required come from behind efforts. So, I wasn't surprised at all to see them go down last week at Edmonton, 38-15, in what was my top CFL play for Week 10. The Argos were outgained 403-226 in the contest (season low on offense) and it was the fourth time in five games they failed to cover. Like Hamilton, they never led last week. 

In the last meeting between these two rivals, Toronto actually had a significant edge in total yards, but it didn't matter.  The bottom line here is that w/ the game taking place at the "Donut Box," the Ti-Cats have a huge edge due to a 10-1 SU all-time record here. As I said in last week's analysis, Toronto has actually trailed at the half in all six of their wins this year, four times they were behind going into the final quarter. Don't forget about a Ti-Cats' defense that is on pace to set a record for touchdowns scored in a season either. 8* Hamilton

10* Saskatchewan (4:05 ET): I think that the Rough Riders burned a lot of people last week, myself among them, as many were calling for them to pick up their first win of the season (at Ottawa), but what happened instead was an ugly 35-13 loss as 3.5-point dogs. In retrospect, perhaps that was too "obvious" of a call. But after getting burned last week, I'm coming right back w/ the league's only winless team in Week 11 as not only are they favored to win this time, but they're taking on arguably the league's second worst team at home. In fact, the Blue Bombers have scored the fewest points in the entire league this season, and like Saskatchewan, are dealing w/ a major injury at the pivot position.

The big news coming out of Saskatoon this week is a coaching change. Bob Dyce will now lead the team for the rest of 2015, replacing Corey Chamblin. Obviously, when the team is 0-9 SU, something has to happen and at least in the short-term, a coaching change can have a positive effect.  Dyce has already promised that "good things will happen" & for what it's worth, a coaching change back on Labour Day of 2011 brought positive results for the Riders. This is a rivalry game too, so you know the crowd at Mosiac Stadium will be fired up. Saskatchewan has beaten Winnipeg on Labour Day Weekend 10 straight years, so this looks like the turnaround spot the team has been yearning for. Note that the majority of the team's losses this season have been close (six of them by four pts or less!) including a 30-26 loss here to the Bombers back in Wk 1.

As bad as things have been for the Rough Riders this season, the Blue Bombers haven't been much better, especially of late. Last week saw them lose for the fifth time in six games as not even a bye week could correct their many issues in what ended up being a 36-8 loss at home to Calgary. That was the third time in five games they were held to single digits.  They obviously badly miss QB Drew Willy. Without him, they have really struggled to win games the last two seasons. Offensively, they are averaging less than 300 YPG (almost 100 per game less than Saskatchewan). 10* Saskatchewan

10* Saskatchewan (4:00 ET):  I'm just not a believer in this Ottawa team. Similar to last year, it appears as if a surprisingly good (or should I say "competitive") start has led them to being overvalued in the marketplace. Granted, they certainly have improved from LY's expansion campaign, however the Redblacks still have been outscored by 70 pts despite a .500 (4-4 SU) record and come into this week off B2B losses.  This will be the first time they've been favored at the betting window all season and I believe the first time since the re-entered the league last year. Of course, Saskatchewan arrives at the Nation's capital as the league's lone winless team, but the Rough Riders have been far more competitive than their overall record indicates. An outright win here is likely, but take the points.

Incredibly, six of Saskatchewan's eight losses have been by four points or less. Talk about bad luck. Yet, somehow they are still 2-5-1 ATS as unlike Ottawa, they've actually been favored a few times. Last week, coming off a bye week, was brutal as the Rough Riders allowed a hail mary at the end of the first half and a 10-9 deficit quickly became 18-9. They'd go on to lose 34-31 at home to Calgary.  The only two teams to defeat the Riders by more than four points are Hamilton & Edmonton, who I have ranked 1-2 in the entire league right now.  I just can't imagine a team going winless throughout an entire season and this shapes up as one of Saskatchewan's best chances at a victory. It's been a miserable season (lost top two QB's), but they've remained competitive nonetheless.

On the flip side of the Riders' close losses is the fact that Ottawa's only two wins over the last six games have both been by three points.  They were annihilated two weeks ago at Calgary, losing 48-3 (I was on that one!) and then followed it up w/ a 30-24 loss at Toronto.  I do not think that QB Henry Burris wil be able to duplicate his numbers from the last game when he completed 32 of 36 passes for 426 yards (but no touchdowns).  Surprisingly, the Riders lead the league in yards per carry (6.9), so they'll be able to move the ball here and I feel it's very likely that they pick up their first win of the season here. 10* Saskatchewan

10* Edmonton (9:05 ET):  The Eskimos are off their worst loss of the season as last week saw them go down at home to Hamilton by a score of 49-20 as two-point dogs. I expect a strong bounce back Friday night.  Consider for a moment that their defense had allowed only seven touchdowns all season before giving up six to the Ti-Cats. Despite the rough performance, Edmonton still can lay claim to having the top stop unit in the league as they allow just 18.7 PPG overall and 285 yards per game. Turnovers destroyed the Esks last week (-4 differential) in what was their first home loss since last season & their fourth worst (in terms of margin) in the last 32 years. They'd previously won seven in a row here, all by at least 17 points.

Toronto comes into Week 10 w/ a better record, but Edmonton is the better team, at least IMO. The Argos have been both lucky and good of late w/ three straight victories all coming by seven points or less.  In fact, their one win by more than seven points this season came all the way back in Wk 1, against Edmonton, a game that was tied at the half. Incredibly, the Argos have trailed in all six of their wins this season, including four times heading into the final quarter. The Eskimos, meanwhile, responded from that 26-11 setback by winning five of their next six w/ the lone loss coming by only three points. In all five wins, they allowed 17 pts or less. Turnovers will be key here as the Argos have yet to win when losing the TO battle. Edmonton is -9 in that department the L2 games after positing a positive differential prior to that. Toronto also has not won four straight games since 2013.

While the Eskimos will be breaking in a new starting pivot in this game (James Franklin), they can still lean on a defense which is #1 in the league by a fairly significant margin. In addition to having the most sacks (27), they've also allowed the fewest passing yards, first downs and lowest pass efficiency rating.  This is a team that's outscored opponents by 50 pts this year; Toronto has only outscored its opponents by 16 total pts despite their 6-2 record.  The Argos have led at halftime only once all season and I say their luck runs out here.  Lay the points. 10* Edmonton

8* Hamilton (7:35 ET): It was a few weeks ago that I proclaimed the Ti-Cats as the best team in the league and boy have they made me look smart ever since. With five straight double digit wins (all covers), they have become the class of the league at 6-2 SU and what they did last week may have been their most impressive performance all season as they went to Edmonton and rolled to a 49-20 victory.  That's now 101 pts scored the last two games and their average margin of victory the L3 wks is basically 30 points per game! Montreal was kind to me last week in upsetting BC on the road, but this is a tall order for them having to go to a place where no road team has ever won.  Lay the points.

Hamilton had to wait until game #5 to play here at Tim Horton's Field.  It's been worth the wait.  First, they beat Toronto here on August 3rd, 34-18 as shockingly low 3.5-point favorites. They were favored by 7 in 38-8 drubbing of Winnipeg the following week and then crushed BC 52-22 after that. Including last season's East Final, they are now 10-0 SU in their new home and just to illustrate how dominant they've been here, in seven of the nine regular season wins they haven't trailed at any point. The offense, led by QB Zach Collaros, is rolling having scored 30+ in five straight games. Collaros leads the CFL right now in passing yardage w/ 2,339 and the team is #1 in points per possession and yards per drive.  Consider that last week they scored 6 TD's against a Edmonton D (which still leads the league in YPG allowed) that previously had allowed only 7 TD's all season!

I made the case that Montreal was certainly better than their 2-5 record indicated going into last week.  They proved me right w/ arguably their best game of the season, a 23-13 win over BC.  It was the fourth time this season that the Als defense held an opponent to 15 points or fewer.  Shockingly, one of those four came against Hamilton earlier in the season, a 17-13 upset as 2.5-pt dogs.  But that game took place in Montreal obviously and the Ti-Cats haven't lost since. A -4 turnover differential killed Hamilton in that one, but lately it's been they creating all the TO's as they have forced nine in the last two games and their defense has scored eight touchdowns already this season.  The Als ran the ball incredibly well last week (39 carries for 251 yds), but I can't see anything close to a repeat performance of that here as the Ti-Cats allow just 75 YPG over land. 8* Hamilton

8* Toronto (4:00 ET): In case you couldn't figure it out already, I continue to have a lesser regard for Ottawa (who is one year removed from expansion) than most.  I played against the Redblacks last week and the end result there was a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Calgary. Despite a 4-3 SU record, they've actually been outscored by 64 points this season. While a great deal of that margin is owed to last week's result, consider that when they were 4-2 SU, they still had a negative scoring differential, which is telling. For the sake of comparison, 0-8 Saskatchewan has a -54 scoring differential this season. All but one of their wins have been by four points or less and to show what the oddsmakers think of them, they've been a dog in every game. I see another big loss coming to them Sunday, here in Toronto.

This is a pretty important contest for the Argos as its only their second of the season at home. They won the first, 30-26 over the Rough Riders, but were unable to cover a similarly large spread. They responded by beating Winnipeg on the road last week, 27-20 as five-point chalk, and now can stay in a first place tie w/ Hamilton w/ a win here. Sure, they gained only 243 total yards last week, but note their only two losses of the season are to the two division leaders, Calgary and Hamilton, both on the road. Yes, they trailed going into the fourth quarter last week, but I think they should have no problem moving the ball here against an Ottawa defense that has allowed 47 PPG its last two on the road.

The Redblacks gained just 162 total yards of offense and turned it over four times last week in a truly ugly performance. I always believed that they were a bit of a mirage in that I still have them rated as the worst team in the league coming into this week. In the first half last week, they gained only four yards rushing and had just six first downs.  I see their regression continuing this week w/ another blowout loss.  8* Toronto

10* Montreal (10:05 ET): While B.C. has the homefield advantage, I would still have Montreal the favorite, so this shapes up as tremendous value taking the points.  The Als may only be 2-5 SU on the year (0-3 on the road), but all five losses have come by four points or less, while the Leos have been outscored by 45 points this season. For the sake of comparison, Montreal is +7 compared to their opponents in scoring differential. Furthermore, B.C. is just five days removed from getting hammered by Hamilton, 52-22, another time that I went against them. As I mentioned in my analysis for that game, two of their three wins this season have come at the expense of still winless Saskatchewan and all three have been by exactly a field goal. Thus, the Lions are not a prime candidate to be laying points at this juncture.

The Als, meanwhile, are off three straight heartbreaking defeats, all by three point margins. Last week, it was a tough 15-12 home loss to a very good Edmonton team. While they were outgained by a pretty decided margin in that one, Montreal did have a 9-0 lead into the second quarter. They also let Ottawa at the half the previous week and the same was true three weeks ago in Calgary. They've just got to find a way to finish. Note that in all three road losses this year, they have outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it's obviously been the third that's given them problems. Defense has not been an issue though as only Edmonton has allowed fewer points on the season than have the Als (19.3 PPG). 

For the sake of comparison, BC's once vaunted defense is giving up over 30 PPG on the season. Last week was obviously a season-worst for points allowed, but note that in every game the Lions have allowed at least 23.  Their offense was pretty pathetic against Hamilton as well, going two and out on five of their first seven possessions and gaining just 36 total yards. Now, B.C. Place has been a "house of horrors" for Montreal as they haven't won here since 2000 and have been outscored by 33 PPG their last four visits. But that's ALL the Leos have to "hang their hat" on here and the bottom line is that, right now, the Als are the better team. 10* Montreal

10* Calgary (10:00 ET):  The Stamps and Redblacks both came into the week tied for first place in their respective divisions, but now each trail after Edmonton and Toronto each pulled out victories to start Week 8. What's a little misleading is that, in spite of matching 4-2 SU records, both teams have actually been outscored this season. For Calgary, that's a surprise, while Ottawa (in just its second year of existence) will take it. But that being said, I feel the defending Grey Cup Champs have some real advantages coming into this matchup. Namely, they have revenge for a shocking 29-26 OT loss (were four-point favorites) out East three weeks ago. They're also coming off a bye, which is key.  So lay the points in this one.

This year's Stampeders haven't been nearly as dominant as last year's group; in fact they're 0-6 so far at the betting window. All but one of their games, a 29-11 loss to Montreal in Wk 2, have been decided by five points or less. But this still is one of the more talented teams in the league and w/ an extra week to prepare, not to mention revenge, I expect to see their best all-around game of the season Saturday night. They've won all four home games and over the last two weeks, home teams were a perfect 8-0 straight up.  Ottawa hasn't played on the road in over a month since losing back in Week 3 at Edmonton by a final score of 46-17. They won despite getting held to 33 rushing yards by the Stamps in the first meeting.

I think that just a couple of weeks ago, this line would have been much higher. It's all about perception as Ottawa has played much better than expected while Calgary is failing to meet its lofty expectations. Remember though, the Stamps destroyed the Redblacks in both meetings last year, winning by an average of 23 points per game.  Forget about winning, I don't even see Ottawa staying competitive in this one as the Stamps defense should rise to the occasion. Ottawa has been fortunate to pull out B2B comebacks the L2 weeks, but their "luck" ends here. 10* Calgary

10* Hamilton (7:00 ET): As I discussed in last week's analysis, the Ti-Cats are somewhat undervalued right now. I've got them rated as the top team in the league currently, thanks to an impressive +77 scoring differential that was a CFL-best before Edmonton's 15-12 win over Montreal earlier this week.  But Hamilton can reclaim the distinction of best scoring differential tonight as they host B.C.. The Leos are off a surprising 26-23 win over Edmonton last week, as 2.5-pt home dogs, but the road has been a different story thus far w/ their only win so far coming at the expense of winless Saskatchewan, by just three points. I say lay the points in this one as Hamilton continues to roll here at home.

I was on the Ti-Cats last week, obviously, as they rolled to a 38-8 win over Winnipeg. While the total yardage edge (290-273) wasn't indicative of a blowout, it was an all-around dominant performance nonetheless.  The defense did return two interceptions for touchdowns while pivot Zach Collaros completed 20 for 32 passes for 280 yards. At one point, the game was 31-0. The win kept Hamilton unbeaten, all-time, here at Tim Horton's Field where they are 8-0 straight up. Including two dominant performances this year (also beat Toronto 34-18), they have outscored visiting teams 202-102 in their new stadium. Note that the home team did sweep, winning all four games, each of the last two weeks in CFL play. The Tabbies is allowing only 19 PPG this season and the most they've given up in any game is 26

British Columbia has seen four of its six games so far decided by exactly three points, the exceptions being road losses to Ottawa and Winnipeg. I could make a case that the Lions' three road games so far have come against the league's three weakest teams. Thus, this is a significant step up. I realize that the vast majority of CFL games this season have been close, but as I said last week that hasn't really been the case w/ Hamilton, who already has four double-digit wins to its credit. The Ti-Cats are 5-1 ATS and it's definitely worth noting that before last week B.C's only two victories were both over Saskatchewan. Five turnovers the last two games don't bode well for them here, nor does the fact they average just 18.7 PPG on the road. 10* Hamilton

10* Hamilton (5:00 ET):  Laying points, especially this many, appears on the surface to be hazardous to one's health this year in CFL.  Last night, I cashed a wire to wire winner on Saskatchewan (+9.5), meaning that all three previous games here in Week 7 have been decided by four points or less.  Despite this trend, I feel safe in "swallowing the points" here w/ the favored Ti-Cats, who despite a rather pedestrian 3-2 SU record have outscored foes by 47 pts this season (best in the Eastern Division) after an impressive 34-18 win over Toronto Monday in their first home game of the season. Meanwhile, Winnipeg comes in w/ a -40 scoring differential (2nd worst in the league) even after beating BC 23-13 their last time out. Conventional wisdom has essentially failed in all three CFL matchups this week, but I think the numbers state that Hamilton is likely to blowout the Blue Bombers tonight.

I haven't even mentioned yet how this is a rematch from Week 2 when the Ti-Cats went West and destroyed the Bombers 52-26, finishing the game w/ a 429-244 edge in total yardage. Even after factoring the change in homefield advantage, the oddsmakers haven't made much of an adjustment at all from that last meeting in terms of the spread.  Remember that Hamilton has not lost here at Tim Hortons Stadium since it opened last year. Their average margin of victory during that time is  an impressive 10.8 points per game (8-0 SU).  The 52 pts they scored on Winnipeg back in Week 2 is the high water mark this year in the league & the offense also is off an impressive showing vs. the Argos last week. 

Defensively, the Ti-Cats are clearly the better team here as so far they're giving up an average of just over 21 PPG.  When facing the league's best defensive team (Edmonton), earlier in the year, Winnipeg scored only three points. I realize that pivot Drew Willy was knocked out of the game the last time these teams played, but he alone can not eradicate the discrepancy that was the final margin in that game. The Bombers have needed a +3 TO margin in two of their three victories so far, something they won't get here, so lay the points. 10* Hamilton

10* Saskatchewan (7:05 ET): After six weeks, Saskatchewan is the league's lone winless team; in fact every other team has at least two victories to its credit.  But it's not as if the Rough Riders have played all that poorly.  In the face of some major adversity (injuries at the pivot), four of their six losses have been by four points or less, one of those to the team they'll hook up w/ here, Toronto.  They are off, by far, their worst effort of the season, that being a 30-5 loss at Edmonton last week. But they have an edge in that the Argos are working on a short week. They too are off a poor performance, a 34-18 loss at Hamilton Monday. Though this is the Argos' first true home game, I can't see them covering the large spot. Take the points.

The first meeting of the season between these two teams went to double OT and saw the Argonauts come from behind to pull out a 42-40 victory as 3.5-pt dogs. It was a brutal loss in a series of them for the Riders, who outgained the Argos 579-349 in that one.  Now, we all know Saskatchewan is now down to its third string QB, that being Brett Smith, who had a shaky debut last week.  But that was also against an excellent defense.  Toronto has given up at least 25 pts in four straight games since its lone win of the season by more than a field goal, that being the season opener against Edmonton.  The revenge angle and sense of desperation surrounding the contingent from Regina should be enough to enable them to stay "within the money" here.  It's interesting to note that the Rough Riders have been favored in four of their six games so far while this will be the first time the Argos have been listed as the chalk.  10* Saskatchewan