10* Georgia (8:00 ET): When I took Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, I noted that it felt like the all-time “buy low” situation on Nick Saban as his Crimson Tide were underdogs for just the second time in 165 games. They needed the game more than Georgia did (to get into the CFP) and sure enough, at the end of the day it ended up being an outright 41-24 win by Bama as 6.5 point underdogs. The spread is shorter this time, predictably so, but I am pivoting to Georgia for the rematch. This time, the Bulldogs will be ready and the more motivated side. 

I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The game was never in doubt as UGA rolled to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and was up 27-3 at halftime. Really, the final score could have been a lot worse. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. 

Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. This is a team that led most of the way in virtually every other game besides the SEC Championship. To me, the key here is if the UGA defense looks like it did in every other game this year. I don’t think there’s any way that ‘Bama goes for 41 points again. The Tide won’t have WR John Metchie this time. Georgia has been the better team all year in my eyes as Bama had the close calls vs. Auburn, LSU and Arkansas down the stretch. I don’t see Bama upsetting Georgia twice. 10* Georgia

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): LSU is going to have a non-scholarship QB taking snaps in this game. That sounds bad. The reason for the situation is because starter Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M, backup Myles Brennan is hurt and freshman Garrett Nussmeier didn’t want to lose his redshirt by playing. In addition to this dire circumstance under center, LSU barely has enough players (reportedly only 44 on scholarship still available) to suit up for this game because of COVID. And they have an interim coaching staff that probably could care less about winning. You’ve absolutely got to fade the Tigers here. 

Meanwhile, Kansas State has no COVID issues and is dealing with zero opt-outs. The Wildcats are getting their starting QB (Skylar Thompson) back from injury and clearly will be the more motivated side in the Texas Bowl Tuesday night. This is a chance for KSU to beat a SEC school and end its season on a positive note. They lost the final two regular season games and were without Thompson in the finale vs. Texas (only lost 22-17). In the last three games that Thompson has finished, the Wildcats averaged 33.3 PPG.

Even when they were at full strength, something they are not close to being tonight, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. It was a 6-6 regular season in Baton Rouge and the only teams the Tigers defeated by more than seven points were: McNeese State, Central Michigan and LA Monroe, all games where they were favored by at least 19.5 points. Tonight is setting up to be a real embarrassment for the LSU program, almost as embarrassing as incoming HC Brian Kelly faking a southern accent in his first public appearance in front of the fanbase. 10* Kansas State

10* Ohio State (5:00 ET): So I am fully aware of the opt-outs for the Buckeyes. That coupled with the way their regular season ended (loss to Michigan) have many questioning OSU’s resolve for this Rose Bowl Game vs. Utah. But have we all forgotten that Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country? Power ratings will never determine the College Football Playoff, but it’s still worth mentioning that virtually every set of my power ratings (including my own) would label the Buckeyes as the third best team in the country. With this line coming down so much, we are getting an incredible value on the favorite for this one. My power ratings suggest the number should be close to TWO TOUCHDOWNS! 

Utah comes in as one of the “hottest teams in the country,” but they also hail from the Pac 12, which is probably the weakest of the five power conferences. The two wins over Oregon were impressive, but other than those, it’s a lot of weak opponents that they were able to take advantage of. Ohio State, even minus the opt-outs, is easily the best team the Utes will have faced all season. I also think the notion that Ohio State “doesn’t care” about this game is a bit premature. No Buckeyes team has lost B2B games since 2013. They will be eager to atone for the loss to Michigan. 

Ohio State had the #1 offense in the country this year, averaging 551.4 yards and 45.5 points per game. Not sure how Utah can compete with that. On the field for the Buckeyes on New Year’s Day will still be QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. This offense is still going to put points on the board. This is the shortest spread for any OSU game all season, even lower than when they visited Ann Arbor. Again, I believe it to be the best value of not just the bowls, but the entire College Football season. 10* Ohio State

8* Georgia (7:30 ET): Michigan is what I’d call a “trendy dog” heading into the second CFP semifinal, which will be played at the Orange Bowl down in Miami. I suppose that’s not a shock, given how the Wolverines and Georgia performed in their respective conference championship games. Michigan throttled Iowa 42-3 to win the Big 10 while Georgia suffered its first loss of the year, 41-24 at the hands of Alabama. But the Wolverines don’t have Bryce Young playing QB nor are they as dynamic offensively as the Crimson Tide. Look for UGA to reassert itself defensively here and remind everyone why they were the #1 ranked team in the country for most of this season. 

 Even after the debacle vs. Alabama, the Georgia defense can still say it only allows 9.5 PPG for the season. Prior to the SEC Championship, the most points allowed by the Bulldogs in a game this season was 17 (against Tennessee). Georgia almost never trailed at any point during the regular season. Not to make excuses, but heading into the Alabama game, the Bulldogs knew that they would still make the CFP even with a loss. Conversely, the Crimson Tide HAD to win the game to get in the CFP. The way the game unfolded very much reflected those realities.

Remember that Michigan was a 6.5-point home dog to Ohio State and no one was giving them much of a chance. HC Jim Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for winning that game, but the approach used against the Buckeyes (41 carries for 297 yds rushing) will not work here. The Georgia defense allowed 10 points or less nine times and had three shutouts. They’d allowed just 83 total points in the first 11 games. After upsetting Ohio State, the Wolverines caught a huge break drawing an overrated Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. I’ve still got Georgia ranked as the best team in the country, even after the loss to Bama. 8* Georgia

8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): I thought that the SEC Championship Game was the ultimate “buy low” spot on Nick Saban as Alabama was not just a 6.5-point underdog to Georgia, but was also seemingly being written off by just about everybody. So I hopped on board, taking the points, and the Crimson Tide ended up turning in one of the more impressive performances of the entire College Football season by beating the top-ranked ‘Dawgs 41-24. After a win like that, Bama is pretty popular again and has been installed as double digit favorites for their CFP semifinal vs. Cincinnati. It’s too many points. 

I get that the Crimson Tide looked incredible vs. Georgia while Cincinnati is the first non-Power 5 team to ever make the CFP. But the Bearcats are legit. They are certainly better than the Notre Dame team Alabama faced in LY’s CFP semifinal. That game saw Bama fail to cover, for the record. Cincy absolutely deserves to be here as the lone 12-0 team in the country. They went to South Bend and handled Notre Dame pretty easily. Do I think the Bearcats will win on New Year’s Eve? No. But this is the biggest game in program history and they aren't about to get blown out. Non-P5 teams have been very competitive in NY6 Bowl Games in years’ past. My own power ratings say this should be a single-digit spread. 

Led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young, Alabama does average 42.5 PPG. Not even Georgia’s top-ranked defense could slow them down. But the Crimson Tide did lose WR John Metchie to a knee injury in the SEC Championship, which will hurt. Cincinnati has the second best pass defense in the country and has 18 interceptions. I think they can slow down this Alabama offense, at least by enough to stay within the spread. Then you have the Bearcats’ offense, which averages 39.2 PPG. Let’s not forget that Alabama’s defense has not been great in 2021. It allowed 41 pts in the loss to A&M.  The Tide had four close wins this year, against Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Florida, none of whom are as good as Cincinnati. I’m taking the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Oregon (9:15 ET): There was some concern earlier in the week on the Oregon side over players missing practice, but my view is this is too many points for a game where the favorite (Oklahoma) is dealing with numerous question marks itself. The Sooners’ lost HC Lincoln Riley right after a disappointing regular season concluded and Bob Stoops, who has spent the last several seasons as a TV commentator for FOX, will now be coaching the team for one night only. Stoops wearing the headset might be a fun “gimmick” for the talking heads, but I have my doubts as to how OU will play in this game.

Of course, Oregon also lost its HC (Mario Cristobal) right after the regular season as he jumped to Miami. Like Oklahoma, the Ducks’ chosen replacement is a well-known defensive coordinator, but it will be Bryan McClendon coaching here on an interim basis. The bloom seems to be off Oregon right now after two late season losses to Utah, one in the Pac 12 Championship, but I see that as a case of the Utes being a bad matchup. The only other time the Ducks lost this year was an overtime game, when they were short-handed, against Stanford. I love them getting this many points in the bowl. 

Oklahoma’s DC followed Riley to USC. On the field, the Sooners will be missing their top tackler and top three guys in sacks! There’s just no way they should be laying this many points. Don’t forget Oregon went to Ohio State and won earlier in the season and did so without DE Thibodeaux, who will be out here. Look for the Ducks’ offense, which averaged over 31 PPG, to make enough plays here to at least keep them within a generous number Wednesday night. Oklahoma certainly appears to be an overwhelming public favorite and that level of support is simply not justified. 10* Oregon

8* Iowa State (5:45 ET): I think this is one of the better December bowl matchups. We’ve got two teams that started the season ranked in the Top 10. While the perception is that Clemson (now #19) and Iowa State (now unranked) had disappointing years, the reality is that both squads are still in the Top 15 of my own personal power rankings. Iowa State, the preseason favorite to win the Big 12, suffered five losses by a total of 29 points and all four conference losses were decided on the final possession. I think, even without RB Breece Hall, the ‘Clones will be motivated to make it eight wins for the fourth time in Matt Campbell’s six seasons here in Ames. Take the points. 

I can’t say that I’m too confident in Clemson’s motivation here. This is the first time in a while that the Tigers find themselves in a December bowl. After six straight appearances in the College Football Playoffs, they had three regular season losses for the first time since 2014. This in a year where the ACC was really down. While no Clemson players are skipping the Cheez-It Bowl, Dabo Swinney’s coaching staff has taken a hit as he lost both coordinators in the last few weeks. While the Tigers did have a strong finish to the regular season, it was against a very soft schedule.

Without Hall, Iowa State’s offense will be challenged going against a Clemson defense that, statistically, is among the best in the country. But I’m unconvinced that we’ll see the same level of defense from Clemson here in the bowl. The Tigers’ offense ranked just 96th in the FBS this year as QB DJ Uiagalelei really struggled, filling in for Trevor Lawrence. Iowa State’s defense should not be overlooked as it allowed just 309 YPG and ranks 13th against the pass.  It all boils down to motivation and I think ISU is going to use this game to make a statement to the rest of the country. 8* Iowa State

8* Mississippi State (6:45 ET): The Liberty Bowl is a very interesting matchup as you have Mississippi State, coached by Mike Leach, taking on Texas Tech. Of course, once upon a time, Leach was the coach at Texas Tech (from 2000-09). In the build up for this game, Leach was quoted as saying, “They still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games. Maybe they’ll deliver the check.” So there’s still plenty of bad blood here. I think that MSU is going to want to win this game for their coach and they will win big. 

This is a bad matchup for the Texas Tech defense, which ranks 112th in the country against the pass. Opposing QBs completed 66.8% of their pass attempts against the Red Raider this season. It just so happens that no QB in the country had a higher completion percentage than Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who is at 75.1%. Rogers threw for at least 294 yards in every game and finished with a SEC-leading 4,449 yards and a 35-8 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs average 30.9 PPG on offense. 

Texas Tech also averages 30.0 PPG, but you’ve got to wonder about their motivation for this game. They’re being led by an interim HC (Joey McGuire), who has already accepted a coaching job elsewhere (La Tech). The Red Raiders did not have a strong finish to the regular season, losing four of their last five games. That’s quite different from Mississippi State, who ended on a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run. The Bulldogs are better than their record as three of their five losses came by three points or less. 8* Mississippi State

10* Florida (7:00 ET): Call it a “hunch,” but the Gasparilla Bowl is probably NOT where either of these two once proud Floridian schools wanted to end their season. UCF, which went 35-4 SU from 2017-19 including a perfect 13-0 in ‘17, has now lost four games in each of the last two seasons. Losing QB Dillon Gabriel to a season-ending injury was the key “blow” this season, although it should be mentioned that the Golden Knights were 6-2 down the stretch without Gabriel. But the majority of those wins were racked up against the dregs of the AAC. Outside of Cincinnati, who blew UCF out 56-21, Florida will be the toughest opponent of the season. 

At 6-6, the Gators were probably one of the more disappointing teams in the country. It was only a year ago that they ranked sixth in the country under Dan Mullen. Mullen has been fired and the program will be “starting over” under Billy Napier, who was wooed away from Louisiana. Coaching the bowl game for Florida will be a mix of Mullen’s staff. I acknowledge not having QB Richardson and DE Carter hurts the Gators, but my power rankings still call this a Top 30 team in the country and they are simply way more talented than UCF is. 

I think it’s safe to say that a six-game ATS losing streak (for Florida) is what’s keeping this line so short. But again, UCF hasn’t beaten anyone of note since Boise State in the season opener. I think the fact that this is an “in-state rivalry game” will motivate the favorite as the players don’t want to head into a new regime having lost to a lesser Sunshine State school. QB Jones is going to enter the transfer portal. While he may not care about the future of football in Gainesville, he’s going to want to look good for whomever his next team will be. At the end of the day, the Gators are simply the much better team here and they are 6-2 ATS L8 as a bowl favorite. Thus, I’ll lay the points. 10* Florida

8* Missouri (8:00 ET): Well, there certainly seems like a lot of reasons to discount Missouri in this game. The Tigers aren’t very good at stopping the run (usually a problem when facing Army), their own starting running back (SEC’s leading rusher) is out and they’ll be breaking in a new starting QB. But, this is still a SEC team that has had ample time to prepare for what they’ll face on Wednesday night. As for Army, the disappointment of losing to Navy probably “soured” them on this game a bit. Take the points. 

If you look at who Army beat this year, it’s not exactly a “who’s who” of College Football. Liberty, UMass, Bucknell, Air Force, Miami OH, UConn, Western Kentucky and Georgia State were the victims. That list includes a FCS team and the two worst FBS teams. The Black Knights couldn’t run the ball vs. Navy, which was a surprise. I know that Navy runs the same offense, so they are uniquely suited to stop the triple option. But also think of the time Missouri has had to prepare to defend it. That’s key. 

Brady Cook will get his first career start tonight for the Tigers. Having just played 11 days ago, it’s going to be tough for Army to prepare for a new starting QB that they’ve never seen before. That brings me to my next point - Missouri has had far more time off to prepare for this game. They last took the field on Nov 26. They figure to come out a lot fresher in this Armed Forces Bowl and I think a hot start will - at the very least - result in an ATS win. With the line moving as much as it has, we’re getting good value on the dog. 8* Missouri

10* Kent State (3:30 ET): After a 1-3 SU start to the season (all three losses to P5 teams), Kent State was able to “dust itself off” and win the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. They were favored in the Conference Championship Game over Northern Illinois (by 3.5) but were outclassed in that contest, almost from the start, and ended up losing 41-23. Thus the Golden Flashes’ landing spot for the bowls is in Boise, ID for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, an annual battle between the MAC and Mountain West. With just one bowl win in program history (2019), it’s not like Kent State won’t be motivated here. 

Wyoming’s season got off to a great start as they were 4-0 heading into October with a win over MAC Champion Northern Illinois. But the Cowboys really sputtered down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games (though they did defeat eventual MWC Champ Utah State). It should be noted that the Pokes were favored only twice over those last eight games, both times by double digits, and on each occasion they lost outright. One of those losses was to lowly New Mexico. (The other was the regular season finale vs. Hawaii). Overall, Wyoming was just 1-4-1 ATS as chalk during the regular season. They barely beat Montana State (FCS) and UConn, winning those games by a FG or less. 

People may point to the fact Wyoming is 2-0 vs. the MAC in 2021 and also defeated its own conference champ in the regular season. But Kent State plus the points seems like the right call here. Should be noted that the Golden Flashes also beat Northern Illinois in the regular season. The rematch in the MAC Championship was their lowest scoring effort in conference play all season. This team comes in averaging 32.6 PPG (compared to just 23.2 for Wyoming). With offense being the key in these early bowl games, I see the underdog having the edge here. They are 8-2 ATS their L10 games off an ATS loss. 10* Kent State

8* Tulsa (2:30 ET): Monday in Myrtle Beach is hardly the most “ideal” bowl destination, but both Tulsa and Old Dominion WANT to be here and not just because of the weather. Both teams finished the regular season strong; Tulsa with a three-game win streak and ODU with a five-game SU and ATS win streak. Those respective win streaks got both teams to 6-6 on the year, so making a bowl was clearly important to them. But while the finishes to the regular season may have been similar, I see a significant gap in talent between the two sides and will be laying the points with Tulsa. 

Now underdogs (and Overs) have clearly been the way to go so far in these early bowl matchups. But expect this one to be different, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned. Tulsa has outscored their opponents 98-54 during the three-game win streak. Four of their six losses this year came to Top 25 teams, including Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter of which they led (on the road!) in the 4Q. While it was somewhat of a disappointing regular season for the Golden Hurricane, after rallying to beat SMU 34-31 in the regular season finale, there’s no better way to cap things than with the program’s 1st bowl win since 2016. 

I do have to give credit to ODU for how they finished the regular season. But at one time, this was a 1-6 SU football team that looked to be going “nowhere fast.” Their five-game win streak saw them beat La Tech, FIU, Fla Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. Of that quintet of opponents, only one made a bowl (Middle Tennessee) and they were also a 6-6 team in the regular season. The Monarchs have no other wins over bowl eligible teams this season. Their run defense put up good numbers, but will struggle to stop Tulsa RB Shamari Brooks, who has more than 3600 rush yards in his career. 8* Tulsa

8* UAB (3:30 ET): I think a lot of people may get caught up in the fact that BYU is ranked #13 in the country. But that ranking is a little generous to say the least. In all due respect to the contingent from Provo, I don’t consider the Cougars to be among the top 40 teams in the country! The SP+ rankings agree with me and also actually have BYU’s Independence Day Bowl opponent, UAB, rated higher! I’m not quite as high on the Blazers, who were champions of C-USA last season, but I do believe they are a live dog and capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points.

UAB is no stranger to bowl games as this will be their fourth consecutive season in one. Remember that the football program did not exist the two years prior! Looking at this past regular season, the Blazers very nearly defeated UTSA (who was undefeated at the time) and finished 8-4 SU overall. One of the losses was to Georgia. Their defense is really strong, giving up only 22.4 PPG.and it allowed 14 points or less on five different occasions. It’s hard to run on UAB as they give up only 104 rush yards per game. 

Much will be made of the fact that BYU went 5-0 SU against the Pac 12 during the regular season, including a 26-17 win over Rose Bowl participant Utah (early in the year). But two of those five wins were by four points or less. The Cougars were a little lucky in 2021 to go 4-0 SU in one-score games. UAB has a great running back in DeWayne McBride, but look for the defense is going to keep them in this one. The Blazers have covered four straight and six of their last seven games. 8* UAB

10* Fresno State (2:15 ET): I know that there won’t be a lack of motivation with UTEP, who is making its first bowl appearance since 2014. The Miners have been quite the story here in 2021, going 7-5, just their second winning season since 2005! They won only five games total in Dana Dimel’s first three seasons here and were 0-12 the year before his arrival. But of the 80 teams playing in bowls this year, UTEP is my lowest rated. Not only are they 0-5 SU/ATS L5 bowl appearances, but they went 1-4 SU/ATS vs. bowl teams this season with three of those losses coming by 17 points or more. I just don’t “see it” with this team. 

Now Fresno State does have some issues heading into the New Mexico Bowl, which is probably why the Bulldogs aren’t as large of a favorite here as my power ratings say they ought to be. After not making the Mountain West Conference Championship, they saw HC Kalen DeBoer bolt for the Washington job. Initially, it looked as if QB Jake Haener was going to follow DeBoer, but Haener changed his mind and withdrew from the transfer portal. But he may not get the start Saturday. Interim HC Lee Marks (who was the RB coach under DeBoer) has been “mum” on who the starting QB will be here.

I think the uncertainty over who will start at QB for Fresno State will end up benefiting the Bulldogs. They obviously know who the starter is. But UTEP is “in the dark.” FSU defeated its final two regular season opponents by a combined score of 74-16. They have wins over San Diego State and UCLA and only lost by seven at Oregon. While we aren’t sure what (or who) we’re getting at QB, we do know the Bulldogs’ run defense gives up just 127 yards per game and that the offensive line is very good. UTEP’s offense relies heavily on “the big play” and I don’t see them making enough of those here. 10* Fresno State

8* Iowa (8:00 ET): This is a very tricky spot for #2 Michigan as they are off the emotional win over Ohio State (1st time beating the Buckeyes since 2011) and now find themselves as double digit favorites over a tough Iowa team. All the Wolverines need to do here is win and they are on to the College Football Playoff. But winning by double digits against a team that is 10-2 SU with six straight victories over ranked opponents will not be easy to do. I’m taking the points here as favorites are on a 2-8 ATS run in Big 10 Championship Games, including 0-5 when it’s not Ohio State. 

Michigan is ranked #2 in the country right now, but so was Iowa at one point earlier in the year. That was pre-CFP rankings, but it’s still worth noting. While the Hawkeyes were actually underdogs to a 3-8 Nebraska team last week, they’ve never gotten more than four points - in any game - from the oddsmakers this season. I know that they are not the prettiest team (outgained in five of the last six games) and I was actually on the other side (Nebraska) last Friday. But an additional day between games and a stout defense should keep this one close throughout. 

Michigan has been very good at the betting window thus far. In fact, they have the best ATS record in the country at 10-2 (4-0 L4). But this is arguably the most pressure they’ve had to deal with all season. It’s their first ever Big 10 Championship Game appearance and I just don’t see the favorite scoring enough to cover this number. The running game that was so effective last week vs. Ohio State now faces a top 15 defense in rush yards allowed. Teams off B2B ATS wins heading into Conference Championship Games are just 42.1% ATS all-time. 8* Iowa

8* Cincinnati (4:00 ET): There is obviously a TON of pressure on #4 Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are looking to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff. They are 11-0 and ranked #4, so all they probably need to do here is to win the game straight up. But why leave things to chance? If Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma State all win today, then the Bearcats are probably “sweating” on Selection Sunday. However, a big win from Cincy on Saturday would essentially render all other results irrelevant to their plight and guarantee them a spot in the top four. So I’m laying the points. 

 The fact that this American Conference Championship Game is taking place at (historic) Nippert Stadium (where Cincy has won 26 in a row) is being underrated in my eyes. This season has seen the Bearcats go 6-0 SU at home with the average margin of victory being 32.5 points per game. Now they’re obviously not playing teams as good as Houston every week. But this will be just the fourth time this season that Cincinnati is favored by fewer than two touchdowns. They are 3-0 ATS previously, beating Notre Dame and Indiana on the road and SMU here at home. All three wins were by double digits.

With their own 11-game win streak, Houston is seemingly a “trendy dog” in this matchup. Normally, I gravitate towards the underdog, but not when they’re trendy like this. The last two times Cincinnati has faced Houston, the Bearcats have won by a combined 43 points. It was 38-10 LY here at Nippert Stadium as the home team finished with a massive 510-282 edge in total yardage. Houston has failed to cover in five straight December/January games and I just don’t think they are on Cincinnati’s level. My power ratings say this spread should be closer to two touchdowns, so I’ll lay the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Alabama (4:00 ET): I think we can all agree that Georgia was the best team in the country during the regular season. The #1 ranked Bulldogs trailed only four times all year, only once after the first quarter and never in the second half. They had a 14+ point halftime lead in 10 of their 12 games, including each of the last five. They come into the SEC Championship Game fresh off their third shutout season, a 45-0 win over Georgia Tech as 35-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, the Dawgs have been successful at the betting window (8-4 ATS) as well, but they are about to encounter their toughest test of 2021. I look at this line and think it’s a big mistake to be doubting Nick Saban this much. 

#3 Alabama will be an underdog here for just the second time in its last 165 games. This seems to be the first time in seemingly FOREVER that public sentiment seems to have shifted AGAINST Saban and the Crimson Tide. I think a lot of that has to do with last week’s close call against Auburn, a 24-22 win that went to four overtimes. The Tide were a strong fade for me in the Iron Bowl as I thought the 20.5-point spread was way too high for a rivalry game. But it should be noted they outgained Auburn 388-159. Again, given the Tide’s resume, doubting them here seems foolish to me. An outright win by the dog seems more likely here than a blowout loss, especially with Bama having beaten Georgia six straight times, including twice in the SEC Championship Game. 

Taking the points here also seems prudent given the situation as it relates to the College Football Playoff. Alabama probably needs to win this game. It is possible that they could remain in the top four even with a loss, but it would have to be a close loss. Georgia is trying to protect the #1 seed, but is already assured of being in the playoff no matter what. So there’s a greater sense of urgency on the Crimson Tide sideline. Much is being made over the Tide’s ability to protect QB Bryce Young against the #1 ranked UGA defense. But I think that Bama’s defense, led by Will Anderson Jr (leads the country in sacks and TFL) can put pressure on Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. 10* Alabama

8* UTSA (7:00 ET): Bettors REALLY seem eager to “write off” UTSA now that the Roadrunners are no longer unbeaten. There is no denying the fact that last week’s 45-23 loss to a hot North Texas team (that was also looking to become eligible) was a bad showing from the West Division Champs of C-USA. But “writing off” a team that won its first 11 games and is playing for a conference championship on its home field seems like a mistake. With UTSA moving from slight favorite to home dog, I’m taking the points Friday night. The Roadrunners are 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of 22.2 PPG! 

Western Kentucky, the champs of C-USA’s East Division, is a team deserving of respect. But even after seven straight wins and going 5-0 ATS L5 games, the Hilltoppers probably should not be favored here. None of those seven straight wins have been against teams with winning records. Two were against 6-6 teams (Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee) while the rest were against the dregs of Conference USA. It should be noted that WKU’s last loss came at the hands of UTSA, 52-46 in Bowling Green. With the Hilltoppers losing that game outright as a home favorite, I don’t see how they are now favored on the road. 

Though an unbeaten season was on the line, last week seemed like a “flat spot” for UTSA. They were coming off a thrilling 34-31 home win over UAB (thanks to a last second TD) that clinched them a spot in this C-USA Title Game. So, in essence, the Roadrunners really had nothing to play for in Denton. It was rainy and three early fumbles against proved to be killers as they fell behind 17-3 in the first quarter. Now they’re back at home and I expect an offense that has averaged “only” 28 points the L3 games to get back on track against a WKU defense they hung 52 points and 564 total yards on in the first meeting. Also, at home, UTSA’s defense is allowing just 13.0 PPG. 8* UTSA

8* USC (10:30 ET): It’s been an ugly season at USC. Clay Helton was fired after a 42-28 loss to Stanford and since that time, there’s been little in the way of improvement. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS their last five games, losing four of them straight up. The lone win was against Arizona and last week may have been a new low as they were crushed 62-33 by rival UCLA here at the Coliseum. Looking back, can you believe this team was actually FAVORED against Utah? 

The fact the Trojans were home favorites against the Utes only underscores what a disappointing season this has been in Southern California. USC is in danger of its second losing season in three years. Before that, they had not had a losing year since 2000. But a strong finish, unlikely as it may seem, would get the Trojans to a bowl game. They have to win these last two games, mind you. Beating #13 BYU may seem unlikely, but I do see plenty of value on the home dog at this price. My power ratings have this line much closer to a pick ‘em. 

I do not think for a second that BYU is the 13th best team in the country. My power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 40. The Cougars are 4-0 SU against Pac 12 teams this season, but all four wins were by 10 points or less. They’ve been beating up on some weak teams down the stretch, like Idaho State and Georgia Southern the last two weeks. I just think USC is better than what it's shown on the field this season and in the final home game, I expect them to “show up.” They’ve got a good running game and that should keep them in this one. Take the points. 8* USC

9* West Virginia (7:00 ET): I understand that Kansas has been more “competitive” of late, with a win over Texas and a three-point loss to TCU. But WVU must win here in order to become bowl eligible and I don’t see them taking it easy on the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers have won seven straight times in this particular “rivalry,” six of those coming by double digits. My power ratings have this spread north of three touchdowns, so I’ll gladly lay a hair over two. 

Kansas is still last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and defense. They are also last in total yards on both sides of the ball. So they’ve got a long way to go in terms of being competitive on a regular basis, even if 1st year HC Lance Leipold has them trending in a positive direction. Before the last two weeks, the Jayhawks had lost eight straight double digit games, all but one coming by 19 points or greater. They’ve been outscored on average by 22.8 PPG this season and that number grows to 26.0 PPG in conference action. 

West Virginia showed last week that it was still interested in making it to a bowl. They beat Texas 31-23 in the Morgantown finale and had 459 yards of total offense. QB Doege leads the Big 12 in passing yards and should have a field day here against a KU defense that has surrendered 52 or more points four different times in 2021. The Mountaineers’ defense may not have to worry about facing Jayhawks RB Devin Neal, who injured his ankle LW vs. TCU. Lay the points. 9* West Virginia

10* Louisiana (4:00 ET): I realize that Louisiana has the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Appalachian State) on deck next week, but I’m not concerned with the “lookahead factor” here at all. The Ragin Cajuns are a vastly superior side compared to rival LA Monroe and this spread is about a touchdown too low. LA Monroe might not be the worst team in the Sun Belt, but they are close. The Warhawks have been underdogs of 23.5 points or more six times in 2021. Why not here? 

Now it may have something to do with an incredible trend in this rivalry, known as the “Battle of the Bayou.” Over the last 22 years, the road team has gone 19-2-1 ATS! But let’s not forget who won last year. That would be Louisiana and it was by a score of 70-20. That was the 11th SU win by the Ragin Cajuns in the last 13 meetings. That trend that favors the road team is due to go “the other way,” sooner rather than later and 2021 feels like the right time for that to begin. 

Louisiana is on a 10-game win streak (only loss was to Texas in the season opener). Some of the wins have been close, but they just clobbered Liberty by 28 last week on the road. This Ragin Cajun team has won 15 straight over SBC West foes under HC Billy Napier and is looking for its first perfect conference record as a Sun Belt member. So they are going to come out motivated on Saturday. They want the highest ranking possible for bowl purposes. This spread should be four touchdowns, not three. 10* Louisiana

8* Auburn (3:30 ET): I understand that QB Bo Nix is out for the season and that the Tigers have lost three straight. But this is too high of a line for the Iron Bowl, a rivalry game that has seen the home team win eight of the last nine meetings, including five straight. Going back further, the home team is on a 13-4 ATS run in Iron Bowls. Alabama has lost its last two trips to Jordan-Hare, 26-14 as a five-point favorite and 48-45 as a three-point favorite. As per usual, Auburn will treat the Iron Bowl as their “Super Bowl” and I don’t see them being blown out. Bama will win, but take the points. 

Alabama obviously can’t lose here, but their focus is more likely to be on next week’s SEC Championship Game vs. #1 Georgia. If the Crimson Tide win these next two games, then they’re back in the CFP. My view is there’s no fear of actually losing to Auburn, so this is a classic “trap” spot. The Tide have been by no means “rolling” their last two SEC games, both of which were decided by seven points or less. They beat LSU by six and Arkansas by seven. The defense allowed almost 500 total yards last week. 

Nix’s replacement is TJ Finley, a transfer from NC State. While he wasn’t all that great the last three quarters against South Carolina last week, that was a road game. Early on, he led two touchdown drives in that game. Finley would be well-served to hand the ball off to RB Tank Bigsby, who has five 100+ yard games this season. My power ratings say this number should be closer to +12, so expect Auburn to surprise the linesmakers a bit in this one as Alabama looks ahead to next week’s SEC Championship. 8* Auburn  

8* Florida (12:00 ET): This used to be one of the premier matchups of every College Football season. But that was 20 years ago. Now Florida State and Florida are both 5-6 SU and fighting for the right JUST TO GO to a bowl. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, meaning an interim (Greg Knox) will be coaching. Only the winner here gets to go to a bowl. While many are being quick to write off the Gators, Florida State just isn’t very good and given the series history, the home team should be laying more points here. 

The Gators were 2-0 vs. Florida State under Mullen. The schools did not meet last year because of COVID-19, which was probably just fine as far as the Seminoles were concerned. Not only were they 3-6 SU last year, but the ‘Noles had previously lost to the Gators 40-17 in 2019 and 41-14 in 2018. The side that has been favored has won the last five Sunshine Showdowns and covered 16 of the last 20. Florida is 4-1 SU in Gainesville this year and the last two games here, they’ve put up a total of 112 points. 

The Gators are just 1-4 SU their L5 games (0-5 ATS) but that’s with two close losses on the road (LSU, Missouri). Florida State has been trending the opposite way, winning five of its last seven. But it’s hard for me to believe the Seminoles are capable of pulling a third straight outright upset. The L2 weeks have seen them beat Miami and Boston College, both by only three points. The Noles’ actually have a trio of three-point wins this season. Homefield advantage is the difference in this one. 8* Florida

10* Colorado (4:00 ET): So #19 Utah is off its biggest win of the season, a 38-7 beatdown of Oregon that assured the Utes a place in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game. There is a decent shot that game could be a rematch with the Ducks. But first comes this minor piece of business, the regular season finale where they are huge favorites over Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing to play for here, but that didn’t stop them last week from upsetting Washington 20-17 as a 6.5-point dog. It would be foolish to expect a similar result here, but the Buffs should keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. 

Last week was actually the second upset in three weeks by Colorado. Earlier, also in Boulder, they beat Oregon State 37-34 as an 11.5-point dog. That’s a pretty impressive win, quite frankly. Now the road has been less kind with CU yet to win a single time away from home this season. But catching Utah the week after its biggest win of the season is a favorable situation. The Buffaloes may have been outgained badly last week by Washington, but finding a way to win when you’re 2 of 13 on third down is pretty impressive. I expect the offense to be more efficient on third down here. 

This is just a classic letdown spot, plain and simple. I know Utah has been rolling, but my power ratings say this spread should be below three touchdowns. So there’s value with the road dog, particularly because they’ll at least be motivated to keep it close against a rival they’ve lost to four years in a row, the last three losses all coming by 17 points or greater. At the very worst, look for the “back door” to be open Friday night in Salt Lake City where the Utes can’t possibly match their intensity from last week. 10* Colorado 

8* Nebraska (1:30 ET): What a trying season it’s been in Lincoln for Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers. Did you know - that despite a 1-7 SU conference record - Nebraska actually has a positive point differential in Big 10 games? How is that even possible, you ask? Well, on October 2nd, they beat Northwestern 56-7. The Cornhuskers’ seven losses in Big 10 play this year have been by a total of 42 points, none of them exceeding a nine-point margin. That is insane and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like it before. I think speaks volumes that Nebraska is favored here, even if it’s ever so slightly, against a team that at one point was ranked as high as #2 in the country.

Iowa has since slipped to 16th after suffering B2B bad losses to Purdue and Wisconsin last month. Those losses were by a combined 37 points, almost equal to the margin of Nebraska’s seven conference defeats. The Hawkeyes have since righted the ship with three straight wins, but two were by just five points (against N’western and Minnesota) and even last week Kirk Ferentz’s team was outgained (312-255) in a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes were really lucky during their 6-0 SU start to the season as they forced a lot of turnovers. (Note they were -6 in TO’s in the two games they lost). 

Nebraska has not beaten Iowa since 2014 with the last three losses - predictably - all coming by six points or less. Frost has been absolutely “snake-bit” in close games during his tenure here with the Cornhuskers going 5-19 SU when the final score is decided by seven points or less. I think it’s time for him to win one. I know that the Cornhuskers have nothing to play for here (except pride!) and QB Martinez will miss the game. But Iowa’s offense is BAD and has been outgained in five consecutive games! Frost deserves this one. 8* Nebraska

8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): It speaks volumes that the last place team in the MAC West (Western Michigan) is favored here (on the road, no less!) against the team that has already sewn up the division title, that being Northern Illinois. Perhaps part of that is NIU potentially looking forward to next week’s MAC Championship Game against whomever wins the East Division (will be Miami or Kent State). But the reality of the matter is that the Huskies aren’t a very good team. Despite being division champs - and an 8-3 overall SU record - they have a -20 point differential for the season! 

Now part of that is due to the non-conference slate, which included a 63-10 loss to Michigan. But even still, the Huskies’ YTD point differential in MAC games is only +20. This despite having a 6-1 conference record! Not only do they have four wins by two points or less this season, including THREE one-point victories, but last week’s game vs. Buffalo was an OT affair. Northern Illinois’ largest win of the season over an FBS foe was eight points against lowly Bowling Green. They have arguably been the “luckiest” team in all of College Football in 2021. 

As for Western Michigan, they suffered a one-point LOSS to rival Eastern Michigan last week. That was yet another game where the Broncos came in as road favorites. I faded them, thinking the number was too high, which it clearly was. But the Broncos did end up with an edge in total yards (485-422) and were up 21-9 in the third quarter. This is a team that earlier in the year went to Pitt and won 44-41! Unlike Northern Illinois, WMU has a positive point differential this season. Though already bowl eligible, getting a 7th win would be huge for the Broncos as it would probably ensure they actually go to a bowl game (in the past, there have been some six-win MAC teams not selected by a bowl). Before the season, many thought WMU would win the MAC West and NIU (winless in 2020) would finish last! Lay the points. 8* Western Michigan

8* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): Maybe I’ve underrated Oklahoma State all season long? The Cowboys are up to #9 in the country in the latest CFP rankings. They’re climbing in my own power ratings as well. After last week’s 63-17 dismantling of TCU (a bad call by me), the Pokes are also the #9 team in the country by my estimation. But covering eight consecutive games is pretty ridiculous. With Bedlam (Oklahoma game) on deck, I (again) think it’s a good time to fade Mike Gundy’s team. This time I’ll be right.

For the second straight week, OSU faces a team fresh off an upset. This week it’s Texas Tech, who last week downed Iowa State 41-38 here in Lubbock, as a 12.5-point underdog. That win made the Red Raiders bowl eligible (first time since ‘15) as they continue to play for an interim HC (Sonny Combie) following the surprising dismissal of Matt Wells last month. A permanent successor, Baylor associate HC Joey McGuire, has already been hired but will not take over the reins until after the season. 

Combie got his first win in the most dramatic way possible, on a 62-yard field goal as time expired. It was the second upset for Texas Tech in Big 12 play (also won at West Virginia). Keep an eye on QB Donovan Smith, who made his 1st career start against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The Red Raiders are 6-2-2 ATS their L10 times as an underdog here in Lubbock and they’ve covered five straight meetings, all as underdogs, against Oklahoma State. Twice they pulled the outright upset. 8* Texas Tech.

10* Maryland (3:30 ET): Michigan is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS after getting by Penn State last week. That win kept the Wolverines at #6 in the rankings, ahead of next week’s showdown with #4 Ohio State. If the Buckeyes defeat #7 Michigan State on Saturday and Michigan wins here, then that would set up a “winner take all” showdown in the Big Ten East next week. I know that Maryland, Michigan’s opponent this week, has had its fair share of problems. But this is an opportune time to play against the Wolverines, off the big win last week and with the rivalry game looming next week. Take the points. 

I know I may be a little bit biased (had Maryland) but the Terps probably deserved a better fate than losing by 19 last week at Michigan State. Total yardage was fairly even in that contest, but there were four Maryland drives that ended inside the Spartans’ 40-yard line that resulted in a combined zero points! That’s brutal. QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s younger brother) threw for 300+ yards for the sixth time this season, which is not only the most for any Big 10 QB in 2021 but also a school record. Maryland has now failed to cover in any of its last six games, but should remain motivated as it needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

I actually believe that Michigan does deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State despite the head to head loss. However, the Wolverines have had some close calls this season, winning three Big 10 games by seven points or less. I think this could be yet another close one as the Wolverines’ defense hasn’t been nearly as stout on the road as it has been in Ann Arbor. One of Michigan’s top two running backs, Blake Corum, is likely to miss this game as well. It’s a classic “sandwich” spot for the favorite whose previous four road games have all had a line of four points or less. 10* Maryland

8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): At the risk of sounding biased, there is simply no way that anyone can convince me that Michigan State is the 7th best team in the country. Congrats to HC Mel Tucker for getting a big extension based off his Spartans being 9-1 SU and still alive for a Big 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff. But this is a team that SHOULD have lost to Michigan a few weeks ago and also has two other narrow wins against Nebraska (OT) and Indiana. Even last week’s 40-21 win over Maryland comes with an “asterisk” as Sparty was only +34 in total yards. It’s time that MSU “meets its maker” this week and that maker is #4 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, unlike Michigan State, are a legit playoff team in my eyes. Since losing to #3 Oregon early in the season, OSU has rolled through the Big 10 (as per usual) winning the seven games by an average of 27.9 points. If that’s not enough, just last week the Buckeyes slaughtered the same Purdue team (59-31) that handed Michigan State its only loss. Because this is a battle of Top 7 teams, this is a rare instance where the public figures to be taking the points. Early reports are that the public is “all over” the double digit dog in this one and I think that’s a mistake. 

Right off the bat, it speaks volumes that Ohio State is favored by this many points. My own power ratings confirm the line as being accurate, if not a bit low. I have the Buckeyes now rated as the #2 team in the country, only behind Georgia, so this is their chance to make a statement in front of a big TV audience. Consider that this is just the second time in history that a matchup of Top 7 teams has a spread of 19 points or more. That was in 2013 and the favorite (Florida State) won 41-14 (over Miami). Michigan State has an awful pass defense that will be exploited by Buckeyes’ QB Stroud and the #1 scoring offense in the country. OSU has won each of the last four matchups by 20 points or more. 8* Ohio State

8* Memphis (9:00 ET): Memphis is a team that still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. At 5-5 SU, the Tigers have two games left, this one and next week at home vs. Tulane. They’ll be favored in next week’s game, but why leave it to chance? The Tigers were “oh, so close” to their sixth win last week, but lost in OT, 30-29 to East Carolina as their two-point conversion attempt (to win the game) failed. While they’ve now lost five of their last seven, four of those defeats have been by six points or less and remember they did beat SMU two weeks ago. I’m taking the points Friday night. 

Houston was the first team to hand SMU a loss this season. That came at the end of October and the Cougars have kept on rolling here in November. Road wins over USF (54-42) and Temple (37-8) have the Cougs now ranked in the Top 25 (#24) and on a nine-game win streak. Their lone loss of the season came in the season opener to Texas Tech. I will say that the schedule has been somewhat fortuitous as UH avoids Cincinnati in the regular season. But last week’s win did set up a matchup with the #5 ranked Bearcats in the American Conference Championship Game, which takes place two weeks from now. 

With their place in the AAC Championship all sewn up, might Houston be overlooking Memphis in this spot? That’s certainly a possibility. Before holding a terrible Temple team to just 8 points last week, the Cougars defense had allowed a total of 79 points its previous two games. Memphis, who has won and covered five straight in the series, is capable of putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored 28 or more points in every game but one this season. This will be the first time in 2021 that the Tigers are getting more than 3.5 points from the oddsmakers. Houston is just 3-11 ATS following a SU win of 20+ points. 8* Memphis

10* Southern Miss (8:00 ET): The Golden Eagles came through for me last Saturday, easily covering as 32.5 point underdogs against undefeated UTSA. In fact, they actually LED OUTRIGHT for most of the third quarter. Now we shouldn’t lose sight of “the plot,” which is that Southern Miss is pretty clearly a bad team. They are just 1-9 SU on the season and had failed to cover seven straight games going into last week. But they showed me that they are still willing to compete and getting double digits against a 3-7 La Tech team - that has nothing left to play for - is an attractive option. Take the points. 

Now La Tech was a SU winner last week, 42-32 against Charlotte as 6.5-point favorites. But it was the week before, when they lost 52-38 to UAB, that the Bulldogs saw their faint chances of bowl eligibility go out the window. They’d lost five in a row before beating Charlotte with three of those losses coming by at least 14 points. Believe it or not, La Tech has been favored in half of its games so far. But never by THIS MUCH, not even when they hosted a FCS opponent (SE Louisiana) early in the season. They only won that game by three points and their average MOV when favored this season is just +0.2 PPG. 

This C-USA rivalry has a history of upset, at least recently, with the dog going 5-0-1 ATS the L6 meetings including five outright upsets! Last week saw USM head coach Will Hall dip into his “bag of tricks” and start Frank Gore Jr at QB. Gore is a running back and not even listed on the QB depth chart. If Hall tries that again, Louisiana Tech will obviously not be caught as off-guard as UTSA was. But the Golden Eagles may have found something with Gore under center. The La Tech defense gave up 548 yards last week to Charlotte. The Bulldogs’ three wins this year have been by a TOTAL of 20 points. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against ANYBODY. 10* Southern 

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): For many years, Northern Illinois was a force in the MAC. But the first two years under HC Thomas Hammock were a real struggle in DeKalb, including a disastrous 0-6 (SU) 2020 season. But the Huskies have rebounded this year to go 7-3 SU and lead the West Division with two weeks to go. This is pretty clearly NOT something that was expected as NIU has been favored in only two games all season and one of those was against FCS Maine! Their last two wins have each been by a single point (30-29 over Ball St and 39-38 over C Mich). I smell an “upset” cooking Weds night.

Now judging by the line, a Buffalo win here wouldn't be much of an “upset” at all. In fact, that’s what I’m banking on. After winning the MAC East LY, Buffalo has had a trying 2021 season due to former HC Lance Leipold bolting for Kansas after spring football. But the Bulls were able to get to 4-4 SU before suffering bad losses to Bowling Green (56-44) and Miami (45-18) the L2 weeks. Still, they’ve got a shot at bowl eligibility, but must now win out. The fact UB is averaging 36.4 PPG at home is a promising sign as is their 12-3-1 ATS run when priced as a home underdog. 

Northern Illinois had beaten Buffalo 12 straight times. But then came last year when the Bulls won in blowout fashion, 49-30 as 13-point favorites. I can’t stress just how lucky NIU has been so far in 2021. They have THREE one-point victories and FOUR by two points or less. Despite the 7-3 SU record, they’ve been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. The one time they were favored in MAC play, the Huskies failed to cover. Buffalo actually has a positive point differential this year. Despite what the WL records may say, this shouldn’t be considered an “upset” when the Bulls win. Take the points. 10* Buffalo

10* Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET): I’m a little shocked by this spread. I have these teams rated pretty even in my own power rankings, so after factoring in that the game takes place in Ypsilanti, Eastern Michigan ought to be favored. Perhaps the number has something to do with the fact the Eagles were upset here at home last Tuesday, 34-26 by Ohio. They were six-point chalk for that game and it was their biggest loss (in terms of margin) in MAC play this season. The only time in 2021 that EMU has lost by more than one score was when they visited Wisconsin very early in the season. I’m taking the points on Tuesday. 

Western Michigan has failed to cover the number in four of its last five games, including three straight. But all they cared about last week was getting the victory over Akron. That made the Broncos (now 6-4 SU) bowl eligible. However, it was not an impressive win by any means as they were 26-point faves in Kalamazoo and the final score was only 46-40. Over the last five games, Western Michigan’s defense is giving up an average of 38.4 points per contest. Again, it is somewhat shocking to me to see them favored in the spot, let alone by this many points. 

The home team is on a 10-5 SU run in this all-Michigan MAC rivalry, although LY saw EMU go to Kalamazoo and win 53-42 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now looking to make it three straight upset wins over Western Michigan while also hoping to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home this season. I’ve always been impressed by the job Chris Creighton has done here, turning around what had been a moribund program. Western Michigan has been a major disappointment in 2021, save for the win over Pitt, and gives up too many points to be favored like this on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): One of the most impressive streaks in ALL of College Football has to be Ohio having not lost a MAC game by more than seven points since 2015! That streak continued last week when the Bobcats went on the road and upset Eastern Michigan, 34-26 as six-point underdogs. It was their second straight upset win as two weeks ago, right here in Peden Stadium, they beat rival Miami 35-33 as a seven-point dog. But despite the B2B upsets, it’s been a tough 1st year under Tim Albin in Athens. Ohio is just 3-7 SU and has no shot at bowl eligibility. 

Toledo, on the other hand, needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. With lowly Akron on the docket for next week, getting to six wins shouldn’t be a problem. But we’ve seen in the past how 6-win MAC teams have been left out of the postseason. So the Rockets are definitely going to want to handle their business tonight, just as they did last Wednesday when they blew out Bowling Green (on the road) 49-17 as 10.5-point chalk. That was their second straight game scoring 49 points. I laid the points with the Rockets @ BG and will do so again here. 

While it’s been six years since Ohio last lost a conference game by more than seven points, I think that streak is due to end. This Ohio team is just not as strong as it was for so many years under Frank Solich. These teams don’t play very often, with only two meetings since 2010. The Bobcats won both, so you have to figure Toledo HC Jason Candle will be hungry for his first win against this opponent. The Rockets have covered six of their last seven road games. Four of their five losses this season have been by a combined 11 points, so the SU record could be MUCH better. I like that the offense has gained over 1200 yards the L2 weeks and the defense (which allows just 18.8 PPG on the road) gives up only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. 8* Toledo

8* TCU (8:00 ET): It is my view that Oklahoma State has drastically overachieved here in 2021. But there’s no denying the Pokes looked rather impressive last week in a 24-3 win at Morgantown (West Virginia). They held the Mountaineers not only out of the end zone, but to just 133 yards total! Still though, my power ratings are a little less bullish on them than are the pollsters. The fact they’ve covered the spread in seven consecutive games should tell you that the oddsmakers have also underestimated the Cowboys. But now we get them laying double digits for just the second time in Big 12 action. 

TCU also was impressive last week in pulling a 30-28 upset of #12 Baylor. It was an emotional win for the Horned Frogs in their first game without long-time HC Gary Patterson. The school’s decision to part ways with Patterson (said to be “mutual”) is still a bit shocking to me, but if last week was any indication, the team seems to be a bit inspired. Making his first career start, TCU QB Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards on a defense that had been fairly stingy for most of this season. TCU joins Oklahoma State as the only teams to defeat Baylor in 2021. Their attention now turns to trying to win two of their final three games (in order to become bowl eligible). 

The only other time that OSU was asked to lay double digits in a conference game was when they faced Kansas. The Jayhawks are so far below the rest of the Big 12 that they don’t even really “count.” What we do know is that the Cowboys have had numerous come from behind victories this year with the last two weeks marking their only wins by more than 10 points. I’m definitely grabbing the points here as TCU played inspired ball last week and the underdog has covered in each of the previous six TCU-OK State meetings. 8* TCU

10* Maryland (4:00 ET): Outside of games where I have made a wager, I rarely have a “rooting” interest. But with all due respect to those in East Lansing, I was smirking a bit when Michigan State suffered its first loss of the season last week, 40-29 at Purdue. In no way, shape or form did I believe that the Spartans were actually the third best team in the country. My own power ratings don’t have them in the Top 20. Sparty has caught some fortunate breaks in 2021, specifically the Michigan game, which was one of three wins by five points or fewer this season. With them coming off their 1st loss, I’ll fade. 

Now Maryland would seem to need all the points they can get. The Terrapins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and suffered four blowout losses during this stretch. They did defeat Indiana 38-35 as a 3.5-point home favorite two weeks ago. Last week was a 31-14 loss to Penn State in College Park. It should be pointed out that the Terps’ last four losses were all to ranked teams. I obviously realize that MSU is also a “ranked team,” but I also think they are more vulnerable than most recent Maryland opponents. 

It’s not just that Michigan State is off its first loss, they also have their biggest game of the year (at Ohio State) on deck next week. So it’s a classic sandwich game. Maryland is not ready to “throw in the towel” by any means as they’re still trying to become bowl eligible (need one more win). They’ve got QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who is second in the Big 10 in passing yards and completion percentage. The MSU defense just gave up 536 yards passing last week. Sparty is also 3-11 ATS as a double digit favorite (four outright losses) since 2018. Take the points here. 10* Maryland

9* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): So at 1-8 SU, the Golden Eagles are obviously having a terrible season. Perhaps even more embarrassing is their 1-8 ATS record. The Golden Eagles have now failed to cover seven in a row - also 0-7 SU - since picking up their lone win of the season (37-0 against FCS Grambling). But they did have an early 14-0 lead last week against North Texas. Not covering there was pretty brutal, though I’m saying that as someone who took the points. Could it finally be Southern Miss’ time to cash a ticket this week? 

This matchup with #23 UTSA reminds me a lot of a winning bet I had last week with Missouri (plus the points) against Georgia. Like Southern Miss here, Mizzou was on a ridiculous ATS losing skid (8 games!) and getting a ton of points (almost 40!). They finally picked up a cover despite losing 43-6. Now Southern Miss isn’t getting quite as many points as Mizzou was. But UTSA also isn’t Georgia. The Roadrunners are undefeated (9-0 SU), but that’s where the comparisons with UGA end. 

This is very much unprecedented territory for the UTSA program. They are off a big win over what had been a hot UTEP team and have a big home game vs. UAB on deck. The Roadrunners could certainly be excused for “overlooking” Southern Miss. I think they will, at least enough for the underdogs to stay within the number. UTSA has been a covering machine in 2021 (8-1 ATS), but this is obviously the largest spread they’ve faced all season. 9* Southern Miss

8* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): #5 Cincinnati is very much in play to become the first non P5 school to make the College Football Playoff. Now in order to make the CFP, they obviously need to handle their own business (i.e. win out) and earn some “style points'' along the way. If they do that and (at least) one of the three one-loss teams ahead of them (Alabama, Oregon & Ohio State) loses again, then the Bearcats just might end up in the top four. But after a few close calls (against Navy, Tulane and Tulsa) they could desperately use a “blowout win” in front of a national TV audience here. I believe this Friday’s game against USF (on ESPN2) affords the Bearcats the perfect opportunity to deliver just the kind of win they need. 

USF is not a good team. The Bulls come into Friday with a 2-7 SU record and that’s after going 1-8 SU last season. Over the last 22 games, they have just ONE win against a FBS opponent and that was Temple back on Oct 23rd. That win also snapped a 13-game losing streak in conference play. Now clearly I’m taking the SU result of this game for granted. It boils down to whether or not Cincy can win by more than three scores. The three top teams that USF has faced thus far - NC State, Florida and SMU - have all beaten the Bulls by 22 or more points. Cincy is obviously the highest ranked USF opponent to date. 

So, yes, I do believe the Bearcats will win big. I know each of the last three games have been competitive going into the 4Q. I even took Tulane plus the points a few weeks ago. But USF is the weakest opponent that Cincy will have faced in a LONG time. Given the questioning of their current ranking, the Bearcats can ill-afford yet another close call. They are 6-0 ATS their L6 Friday games including a 52-3 win over Temple earlier this season where I laid the points and got the cover. USF just allowed a season-high 54 points last week. 8* Cincinnati

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): Toledo outgained Eastern Michigan 672-490 last week, but turned the ball over three times and thus lost the game 52-49 as nine-point favorites. Each of the last three times the Rockets have been favored, they have lost the game on the field. They have four outright losses as chalk this season, leaving them at 4-5 SU overall, which has to be considered a massive disappointment. But I like them to get back on track tonight against an opponent they have historically dominated. Lay the points. 

The most shocking thing about last week’s loss is how many points (52) and yards (490) Toledo allowed. They came into the contest vs. Eastern Michigan with the MAC’s top scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and were second in fewest yards allowed (326.9) per game. Now I did take the Over (easy winner), noting EMU is one of the MAC’s better offensive teams. But the same cannot be said for this week’s opponent, Bowling Green, The Falcons are just 3-6 SU overall and averaging 23.6 PPG. 

Now BG is off a 56-44 upset of Buffalo last week where they were 14.5 point underdogs. But the Falcons were actually outgained 499-484 and had 25 fewer first downs! While 7-2 ATS, last week was just the third win for Bowling Green this season. It was their first win in conference play and only the second against a FBS opponent. As I alluded to above, Toledo has had BG’s number in the past. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings including 38-3 last season. I look for the road favorite to assert its dominance in this one. 10* Toledo

8* Eastern Michigan (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Tuesday game for both Ohio and Eastern Michigan. Last week, both were underdogs and won their games outright in high scoring fashion. Ohio, at home, beat rival Miami 35-33 as seven point dogs. They were outgained 569-413. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan went on the road and upset Toledo 52-49 as a nine-point dog. The Eagles were outgained 672-490. But in both instances, I did not care about the total yardage battle or even who won. That’s because I had the Over in both games. It ended up being a 2-0 night for me. 

Last week I shared with you some rather shocking information: it has been over six years since Ohio lost a MAC game by more than seven points! But Frank Solich’s surprising retirement still looms large over this team, which is just 2-7 SU with no shot at bowl eligibility. I know that the Bobcats have been mostly “snake bitten” under Tim Albin (Solich’s replacement) in 2021 with three losses by a total of six points. But it’s probably “high time” that they lose by more than seven points in conference play. As mentioned last week, the Ohio defense is one of the worst in the country at stopping the run (204 YPG allowed) and gives up 31.3 PPG as well. 

Clearly, EMU has some “work” to do at the defensive end as well. But the offense can certainly put up points as is evident by the fact they’ve now put up 50+ in B2B games. What they did last week against the MAC’s top scoring defense was very impressive. The Eagles are now bowl eligible following last week’s win, but there’s no guarantee a six-win MAC team gets invited to play a postseason game. So they’re going to be looking for a strong finish to the regular season. Winning the West Division is not out of the question. My power ratings say this should be a double digit spread. 8* Eastern Michigan

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): Oklahoma State had its easiest game of the season last week as they beat Kansas 55-3. But it can’t be discounted just how “dangerously” the Cowboys have been living most of this 2021 season. There have been two games (Texas & Boise State) where the Pokes won after trailing by at least 13 points. They also trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4Q and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State for a seven-point win in Stillwater. All the close calls finally caught up with OSU against Iowa State, where they lost 24-21, the week before blowing out Kansas. 

This week finds Mike Gundy’s team traveling to Morgantown, WV, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire Big 12. The Mountaineers will be looking to pull off a third consecutive upset here as the last two games have seen them defeat TCU as a 4.5-point road dog and then Iowa State as a 7.5-point home dog. Though just 4-4 SU on the season, the Mountaineers could have a MUCH better record as three losses have been by six points or less, including two by just a field goal. 

While pulling three consecutive upsets might seem like a tough “ask” from WVU, take note that Oklahoma State is an extremely fortunate 6-0 ATS L6 games. OSU is #11 in the initial CFP rankings, but oddsmakers have a less favorable view and so do my own personal power ratings. Bank on the home team having plenty of motivation Saturday afternoon as they have lost six straight times to the Pokes (0-5-1 ATS). The last two weeks have seen WVU average 490 YPG. 8* West Virginia

8* Wyoming (3:30 ET): The annual “Border War” is renewed Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Colorado State owns the all-time series edge, but it had been Wyoming that had won four in a row - before last year. CSU picked up its ONLY win of the 2020 season (played just four games) when it beat the Cowboys 34-24 as a three-point home underdog. But now they have to win at a place where they have not prevailed since 2015. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring game (just look at the total), taking the points seems like the way to go. Also, Wyoming (because they are 0-5 ATS L5 games) seems undervalued. 

Wyoming started the season 4-0. Now three of those wins were close calls (decided by 7 points or less), one of them against UConn, which would have been a VERY embarrassing loss. Turns out the Cowboys haven’t won since that near embarrassment. It’s a four-game SU losing streak with one of the defeats coming to lowly New Mexico here at home by a score of 14-3. The Pokes have actually outgained their last three opponents (combined) yet are somehow winless. Being -9 in turnovers hasn’t helped. Despite the four-game losing streak, my power ratings still say the home team should be favored here! 

Colorado State’s season started very poorly as they opened 0-2 with the losses coming to FCS South Dakota State and lowly Vanderbilt. Then things began to turn around in Fort Collins. The Rams covered four straight and were 3-1 SU. The lone loss was at Iowa! But the L2 weeks have brought a couple painful defeats, 26-24 at Utah State and 28-19 at home vs. Boise State. The Rams blew a 13-0 lead last week in a game their fanbase really thought they were going to win. I sense they’ll be deflated this week and that’s tough when hitting the road. Wyoming will be desperate for its first MWC win. 8* Wyoming

8* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): Kind of an “off the radar” game to go with here, but whenever I see a 2-6 team (like North Texas) laying points on the ROAD, my eyes always “light up.” Now Southern Miss is no Alabama. The Golden Eagles are 1-7 and that lone SU victory came against Grambling, a FCS school. The Golden Eagles have lost six straight games, five of them by double digits. But this is probably their last shot at a win this season. I think they’ll come out motivated. Take the points. 

Now until last week, North Texas had also not beaten a single FBS team in 2021. The Mean Green had lost six in a row, four by double digits, since defeating Northwestern State 44-14 all the way back in the season opener. But then they beat Rice 30-24 last week as a 1-point underdog. In case you were somehow unaware, Rice is not a good team. It took OT for the Mean Green to get that first FBS victory and they were actually outgained for the game. Expecting them to win B2B games seems like a “tall order,” no?

Now I’m obviously aware of the fact that Southern Miss has not scored 20 points against any FBS opponent this year. That’s not good! But they do only give up 20.3 PPG at home! The North Texas defense, as you might expect, is pretty bad. The Mean Green allow 33.6 PPG and have allowed less than 35 to just two FBS teams. Southern Miss had five turnovers last week in a 35-10 loss to Middle Tennessee. Take better care of the football here and they can at least stay within the number. USM has beaten N Texas each of the last two years - by a combined 28 points! 8* Southern Miss

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Incredibly, Mizzou has failed to cover 10 straight games. This ATS losing streak goes all the way back to the end of last season. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in 2021. But, believe it or not, I have been waiting very patiently to bet on them again. Now it (obviously) didn’t work out the last time I did so. That was three weeks ago at home vs. Texas A&M when they lost 35-14 as 11-point underdogs. That is the only time in their last four games that the Tigers have been an underdog. This week certainly puts their “inability” to cover the pointspread to the test as they are getting almost FORTY points against #1 Georgia. 

It just so happens that Missouri’s 0-10 ATS run began with a 49-14 loss last year to UGA. They were 14-point home underdogs in that particular meeting. I think this is a GREAT time to take a Mizzou team that has been favored to win more than half of its games this season. The only other time this year that the Tigers were double digit dogs was the game vs. A&M. This is just a ton of points, a perfect time for a team that’s beyond “due” to cover a pointspread. 

Now obviously Georgia is very good. But coming off a four-game stretch where they faced Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Florida (all ranked teams), doesn’t it just FEEL like this is going to be a classic “letdown” spot? Especially coming on the heels of being ranked #1 in the initial CFP rankings? This is more points than UGA laid to VANDERBILT, which was a road game, but still. Only two Georgia wins this year (UAB, Vandy) were by more than 37 points. I don’t think this one will be the third. 8* Missouri

10* Clemson (3:30 ET): We all know about that definition of the word “insanity.” Something about “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” Well, for the third week in a row, I’m taking Clemson. This despite losing with them the previous two times. The Tigers are now 0-7 ATS, tied with Missouri for the worst such record in the country. Last week saw Dabo Swinney’s team installed as an underdog for the first time since the National Championship Game (vs. LSU) at the end of the 2019 season. It was also the first time they’d been a ‘dog in ACC play since 2016! I thought that was the ultimate “buy low” spot, but it turns out they lost 27-17 as 3.5 point underdogs.

This week finds Clemson back in the familiar role of favorite, facing Florida State. They have dominated the Seminoles in recent years. In the last two meetings, the Tigers were favored by 26.5 and 18.5 points. They won those games by 31 and 49. It should not shock you to find that the line is much shorter this time. I know that Clemson has really struggled to score this season, but here they are facing a defense that has given up 25+ points in every game when not facing UMass or Jacksonville State. Four times the Seminoles have allowed 30 or more.

Clemson did allow 27 points last week to Pitt, which was a season-worst when excluding OT. But the Pitt offense is one of the best in the country. The same cannot be said for Florida State’s. The ‘Noles have not scored more than 14 points in any of the L3 meetings with Clemson and won’t here. My own power ratings are calling for this spread to be north of two touchdowns, so there is VALUE on the favorite here. I’m not “insane!” At long last, the Tigers end their ATS losing streak. 10* Clemson

8* Boston College (3:30 ET): What in the world is going on in upstate New York? Syracuse has covered six straight games, giving them the longest ATS win streak in the country. The underdog role has suited them well as they were getting points in all but one of those games (when they faced FCS Albany). But the Orange can no longer rely on the oddsmakers to get them “over the hump” this week. That’s because for the first time in their last 22 games vs. FBS competition, they find themselves favored!

Ironically enough, the last time the ‘Cuse was favored to defeat an FBS foe was against the very opponent they are matched up with this week. Boston College comes to the Carrier Dome on a three-game losing streak. But before opening ACC play at 0-3, the Eagles were flying high with a 4-0 start. I took them (and cashed) when they beat Missouri, which is the last time they won a game. By the way, that last time Syracuse was favored? BC smoked them 58-27 as three-point pups.

I’m not saying things will turn out quite that lopsided this weekend. But I do believe it is an opportune time to fade Syracuse. All of the Orange’s last five games have been decided by five points or less. Now they are laying points for the first time in two years. Last week, they needed to come back from a nine-point deficit in the 4Q to beat Va Tech 41-36. They led for less than five minutes. I know that BC is struggling on third downs due to playing with a backup QB. But they should be able to move the ball on a Syracuse defense that gave up 260 yards rushing last week. The three straight losses are a first under HC Jeff Haley. Take the points. 8* Boston College

8* Tulane (12:00 ET): The pressure continues to mount on Cincinnati, who is ranked #2 in the current AP Poll and MUST finish the regular season unbeaten to have ANY chance of being the first “Group of 5” team to crack the College Football Playoff. Last week saw the Bearcats narrowly escape a bad Navy team, winning just 27-20 despite 29-point favorites. Though they led the entire way, Cincy was actually outgained in the contest 308-271. That marked a season-low in total yardage.

This week Cincy is on the road again to face Tulane. The line is in the same “neighborhood” as last week, despite the Bearcats’ poor performance and the fact I’ve got Tulane rated several points higher than Navy. Now I know this Green Wave defense can’t stop a nosebleed. But at least they’re a bit more battle-tested after facing another unbeaten team (SMU) last week. Did that game go well? Obviously not. But at least this time Tulane is at home. They’ve faced a tough schedule as Cincinnati will be the fourth team currently ranked in the Top 20 that they’ve taken on this season.

This Tulane offense can put up points. They’ve scored at least 21 in every game and average 31.9 PPG. That right there should allow them to stay within the number. Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, not just last week, but also in tight wins over Indiana (trailed going into the fourth quarter) and at Notre Dame. Their biggest margin of victory this year away from historic Nippert Stadium is 11 points. With their hosts 0-5 ATS L5 games and being somewhat undervalued, this seems like a good spot to grab a big number. The Green Wave were favored twice during their win streak. 8* Tulane

8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): The Hurricanes treated me so well last week (upset NC State) that I’m going “back to the well” with them again this week. In the analysis for last week, I talked about how Hurricanes HC Manny Diaz was firmly on the “hot seat” after a disappointing 2-4 SU start. Remember that Miami came into the season ranked #14 in the country. The win over NC State was definitely a step in the right direction, however, it doesn’t mean Diaz is off the hook yet. Whether or not they can win again, this time on the road, is a question I’ll leave alone. But I do once again love “The U” getting points. 

Pitt is the #19 ranked team in the country coming into this week and they are off an impressive 27-17 win over Clemson. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and have covered the spread in each of their last four games. However, the ridiculous offensive numbers we were seeing from them early on in the season have started to cease. They’ve scored “only” 27 and 28 points the L2 weeks. It actually shouldn’t be all that surprising to see Pitt at 6-1 SU given that they’ve been favored in every game so far. My view is that after having beaten the spread by such a substantial margin thus far, the Panthers are “due” for a close game.

Miami has definitely had Pitt’s number through the years, going 10-4-1 ATS in the 15 meetings since ‘98. This is just the third time since ‘78 that Pitt has been favored over Miami and the previous two both saw them lose outright! One of those was in 2019 when the ‘Canes came here and won 16-12. Last year’s game was a 31-19 Miami win down in Coral Gables. With two losses decided in the final minute, Miami should have a better SU record. This is just the third time they’ve been a dog in 2021. Under Diaz, they are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. Take the points. 8* Miami FL

8* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET): The Hokies seem to love to grasp defeat from the “jaws of victory.” They have suffered three losses this season by six points or less and all three games were decided in the final minute. Twice (vs. Notre Dame and LW vs. Syracuse) they led with under three minutes to go only to lose the game in the closing seconds. Since starting 2-0 SU/ATS, Va Tech is just 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS. But my own power ratings suggest that they should still be a slight favorite going into this weekend’s matchup with rival Georgia Tech. So I will count on things going right this time and take the points. 

Georgia Tech also has some “kinks” to work out right now as they enter this game on an 0-3 ATS slide. Their only SU win in that stretch came by four points over Duke. The other two games saw them give up 52 points (at home) to Pitt and then 48 more last week at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets certainly did not have any problems moving the ball LW in Charlottesville (570 total yards), but they also gave 636 total yards on defense. Yikes! They are allowing an average of 568.3 YPG the L3 weeks. So I expect Virginia Tech, who got 151 yards rushing LW from freshman Malachi Thomas, to move the ball in this one. 

Whomever has been on the road has enjoyed a tremendous amount of success in this particular ACC rivalry. Over the past seven meetings, the visiting team has won outright six times. The underdog had been on a 6-0 ATS run, until last year when the Hokies shut the Yellow Jackets out 45-0 as a six-point favorite. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the better team (Va Tech) here. Georgia Tech is just 1-7 ATS its last eight tries as chalk. 8* Virginia Tech

8* Troy (7:30 ET): #24 Coastal Carolina just had its season crumble before its very eyes last week. They suffered their first loss of the season, 30-27 at Appalachian State, which basically ended any hope the Chanticleers had of representing the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six bowl game. You may recall that I took the points with the underdog in that one, noting Appalachian State was easily Coastal’s toughest 2021 opponent to date. There were some other reasons I took the Mountaineers as well. But all you need to know is that Coastal now finds itself in a terrible letdown spot against a team that’s better than you think. 

Troy is 4-3 (straight up). They’ve only been an underdog twice, at home vs. Liberty and at South Carolina. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by eight and nine points respectively. But they do come into Thursday on a four-game ATS losing streak. They had a terrible game where they lost outright (as a 23.5-pt favorite) to LA Monroe. The last two games have seen the Trojans win by three both times. They deserved the cover against Ga Southern earlier this month as they had a 409-301 edge in total yards. They were a little luckier last week against Texas State (+3 in turnovers), but again gained almost 400 total yards.

Troy’s defense is only giving up an average of 19.6 PPG. That should keep them in this one from start to finish. That’s good enough for me when taking this many points. Again, this is the ultimate letdown spot for Coastal Carolina as they had the “bubble burst” last week and can no longer dream of a second straight undefeated regular season. Troy’s offense had a season-high in rush yards (205) vs. Texas State and has scored 10 out of 14 times on its first possession of a half. Coastal’s defense gave up a season-high 575 yards last week. Troy has had four extra days to prepare for this game and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of five points. Take the points. 8* Troy

8* Miami FL (7:30 ET): “The U” came into the 2021 season with high hopes. They were ranked #14 in the country and opened against (then) #1 Alabama on a neutral field. As you know, that game did not go well for the contingent from Coral Gables. The Hurricanes were slaughtered 44-13. But lots of teams lose badly to Nick Saban. What the Miami fanbase was NOT counting on is three more losses over the next five games, including an 0-2 start in ACC play. At 2-4 SU, HC Manny Diaz is firmly on the “hot seat.” 

It’s obviously been a “topsy-turvy” season in the Atlantic Coast Conference as Clemson has already lost twice and is unranked. North Carolina, another preseason Top 10 team, is 3-3. The three ranked teams are Wake Forest (#16), Pitt (#23) and NC State (#18). The Wolfpack are 2-0 in conference play thus far and 5-1 SU overall. They’ve beaten Clemson (in overtime) and then last week (off a bye) was maybe their most impressive showing to date as they went to Chestnut Hill and throttled Boston College 33-7 as three-point favorites. 

This, to me, feels like a “sell high” spot on NC State and a time to “buy low” on Miami. Few would have envisioned, at the start of the season, that the Hurricanes would be getting points in this matchup. They easily could have won each of the L2 games, but missed GW FG against Virginia and then threw an INT in the red zone LW vs. UNC. Previous to last week, NC State had played only one other road game and they lost it, 24-10 to Mississippi State. They were outgained in a 34-27 win over Louisiana Tech (in Raleigh) three weeks ago. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Miami FL

9* Clemson (3:30 ET): It is painfully obvious by this point that Clemson does not have much offense. While last week did see them hold on to defeat a scrappy Syracuse team 17-14, they failed to cover (as 12.5-point chalk) and are now 0-6 ATS on the year! Only Missouri and New Mexico (both 0-7 ATS) are worse nationally when it comes to the betting window. I will readily admit that I was wrong to lay the points with the Tigers last Friday at the Carrier Dome. But this looks to be the ultimate “buy low” spot as for the 1st time since the National Championship Game at the end of the 2019 season, Clemson is an underdog. Take the points here. 

Dabo Swinney has not been an underdog in an ACC game since 2016. So this is something truly “out of the ordinary” as his Tigers head to Pitt for the first time ever. Because they’ve already lost two regular season games (first time since 2014), Clemson is out of the polls. But most power ratings, including my own, continue to have respect for them. Earlier I referenced the offensive struggles. But the defense has been great, holding every opponent to 14 points or less in regulation. When you’re favored by double digits - as the Tigers have been in every game but one - that doesn’t guarantee you’re going to cover the spread. But as a dog, that kind of defense is huge. 

It should also come in handy when facing a Pittsburgh team that came into last week leading the FBS in scoring. But the Panthers were held to “just” 28 points last week at Virginia Tech, a sign they can be kept in check. Something to keep in mind is that Pitt hadn’t exactly faced a slew of great defenses before heading to Blacksburg last weekend. While my power ratings respect the Panthers, calling them the ACC’s 2nd best team, Clemson is still #1 in that regard and I’m taking the points. 9* Clemson

8* Iowa State (3:30 ET): It would be easy to forget that Iowa State began the season ranked in the Top 10. The Cyclones have already lost twice, once to Iowa and the other time to Baylor, and have been out of the Top 25 for a few weeks. Yet Matt Campbell’s team still finds itself favored here, by a touchdown, against a Top 10 opponent. That says something, doesn’t it? Note that in their losses, the Cyclones outgained Iowa 339-173 (but were -4 in turnovers) and Baylor 479-282. I think Oklahoma State is extremely fortunate to be 6-0 as they’ve had to come from behind in half of those wins. I’m laying the points in this Big 12 matchup. 

OSU may be a Top 10 team according to the pollsters, but I don’t even have them ranked in the Top 25 of my own power ratings. Just like the oddsmakers, I have Iowa State rated higher. Last week, the Cowboys really burned me against Texas, storming back from a two-touchdown deficit in the 1st half to win 32-24. It’s not the first time we’ve seen that from Mike Gundy’s outfit. The Pokes also came back (from a 13-point deficit) to beat Boise State 21-20, trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4th quarter and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State in the opener (only won by 7). All of OSU’s wins have been by 11 points or less and their luck is about to run out here in Ames. 

The Cowboys’ YTD scoring differential is actually the third lowest EVER for a 6-0 team in the AP Poll era! I don’t see them doing much on offense in this game as they are up against an Iowa State defense that leads the conference in both scoring (16.3 PPG) and yards allowed (251.3). The Cyclones, who have been favored in every game this season, are finally seeing their own offense “spring to life” as RB Breece Hall has had four straight 100+ yard games, including a season-high 197 last week in a 33-20 win at Kansas State. This is the second of B2B road games for OSU and I can’t see them winning both as underdogs. The ranks of the unbeaten are about to get smaller as Iowa State wins by more than a TD. 8* Iowa State

8* Virginia Tech (12:30 ET): The underdog role always seems to serve Syracuse pretty well. They certainly should be used to it by now. This week marks the 21st consecutive game where they are getting points against a FBS opponent. Getting points is why they are 6-1 ATS this season and have covered five straight times. Each of the Orange’s last four games have been decided by exactly three points. While they’ve won only one of those straight up - a 24-21 upset of Liberty at the Carrier Dome - they’ve covered the spread in all four games. But after suffering three consecutive heartbreaking losses, you have to think a toll has been taken. I think that this week the ‘Cuse is ripe to be beaten and beaten badly. 

The most recent loss for the Orange came last Friday at home to Clemson. They easily covered the spread (closed +12.5) in that one, but lost (17-14) when they missed a FG in the final minute. The week before saw them lose in OT to Wake Forest, also at home. The week before that saw them lose 33-30 on a last second FG, one that was made by Florida State. What can this team possibly have left in the tank? Making matters more challenging is that the Orange have to leave their beloved Carrier Dome this week. 

Overall, Virginia Tech was not impressive in a home loss to Pittsburgh last week. But I thought the Hokies’ defense did a good job in holding what was the top scoring team in the country to just 28 points. That worked for me as I bet that game Under. The Hokies’ previous two losses were close games, at West Virginia (stopped on goal line in the final minute) and then at home vs. Notre Dame (GW FG kicked with 17 seconds left). So they could easily be coming into this game at 5-1 SU rather than 3-3.. I just can’t see Justin Fuente (on the hot seat) losing a third straight game in Blacksburg. The Hokies have a much better defense than Syracuse and I would rate them as better on neutral field. So lay the short number at home. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Tulane (7:30 ET): SMU enters the week as one of the 11 remaining unbeatens in College Football. Over time, you know that number is going to dwindle. This may not be the week that the Ponies suffer their first SU loss, however I definitely am going to fade them and take the points with Tulane. In my own personal power ratings, SMU has the third lowest ranking among the 11 unbeatens. Not only do they fail to crack my Top 25, they barely crack the Top 50! So I definitely think they're being overvalued this week against a Tulane team that is better than most realize. 

Tulane is just 1-5 SU and has given up a ton of points during an 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak. But the Green Wave have faced some tough competition thus far, including Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB and Houston. This is a team that can put points on the board as they average 32.8 PPG, led by QB Michael Pratt. The SMU defense, despite not facing many great offenses so far, has given up an average of 5.7 yards per play. Tulane has been favored in half of its games so far, so you’d expect them to have a better overall record coming into this game. Again, they are going to be a tougher out than most realize, especially for a SMU team that may be looking ahead. 

The Mustangs still have upcoming road games with Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati (the big one) where their unbeaten record (if still intact) will be put to the test. Their focus may very well be on those games right now. In addition to being a bit of a tricky spot for the favorite, there are some trends that support a play on the underdog here. The road team has covered 11 of the previous 15 meetings between these schools and Tulane is 9-2 ATS coming off a conference loss. SMU, who could barely scrape by Navy in its last game, is just 2-9 ATS off a conference win. Half of the Mustangs wins have been by eight points or less and against Navy they were down by two touchdowns. 10* Tulane

8* Appalachian State (7:30 ET): I have no unearthly idea what happened to Appalachian State last Tuesday when they suffered a humiliating 41-13 defeat at Louisiana. I do know they turned the ball over four times and were 0 for 11 on third down. You’re not going to win many football games doing that. It was a highly uncharacteristic effort from the Mountaineers, whose only other loss this year came by two points at Miami FL. Perhaps last week was a case of “looking ahead” to this game, a showdown with undefeated and reigning Sun Belt Champion Coastal Carolina. Whatever the reason was, I’m calling for ASU to bounce back at home. Take the points. 

It’s been 13 days since Coastal Carolina last took the field. The 52-20 win over Arkansas State made the Chanticleers the first team in the country to become bowl eligible. But they are obviously interested in far more than just making it to a bowl. This team had an undefeated regular season last year (11-0) before losing to Liberty 37-34 (OT) in the Cure Bowl. Now the Chants are looking to represent the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six Bowl. This will be by far their toughest test to date as so far Coastal has been a two-touchdown favorite in every game. They’ve been favored by 20 or more in all but one game and three times they’ve been favored by 30 or more. 

You have to remember that Louisiana (who smoked App State last week) is the Sun Belt’s “other good team.” It was a bad loss for the Mountaineers, but not something they can’t overcome. Coming into the season, this is the game they circled as they’ve got revenge for a 34-23 loss in Conway last season. Now the game is in Boone, where ASU has suffered only two losses the L3 years and both were by a field goal. They have not been a home dog since 2017. Coastal came out of NOWHERE in 2020 (were picked to finish 5th in the SBC!) and as a result, I felt their record would regress this season. If they are to lose a regular season game, it would clearly be this one. To this point, the Chanticleers have not faced a team I’d consider to be ranked in the top 100 in the country. App State is on their level, particularly at home. Coming off last week’s shocking loss, this is a great “buy low” spot on the home dog. 8* Appalachian State

10* New Mexico (7:00 ET): Few teams got off to a worse start in 2021 than Colorado State did. The Rams lost outright (42-23!) to FCS South Dakota State in their first game. Then they lost again as favorites (at home to Vanderbilt) the following week. The season then took a drastic turn with a 22-6 upset of Toledo on the road. CSU’s only TD in that game came on a punt return. They surprisingly stayed close in Iowa City (led at the half) and then last week came what was easily their best game, a 32-14 win over San Jose State. But even that one comes with the “asterisk” of being +3 in turnover differential.

Now taking New Mexico here, even with the points, does require a “leap of faith''. The Lobos are one of only two 0-6 ATS teams in the country. They’re losing by an average of 12.3 PPG and are near the bottom of the FBS in scoring. But they’ve also faced some pretty good teams on the road, like Texas A&M and San Diego State. They also hosted Air Force, who is 5-1 SU. Considering where Colorado State was a month ago, this is precisely the “drop in class” (in terms of the opponent) that they need in Albuquerque right now. 

The home team will also be highly motivated come Saturday night. Not just to end their four-game losing streak in 2021, but also to end a 10-game losing streak to CSU. This is what you need to know - every win New Mexico has had in the L3 seasons has come at Dreamstyle Stadium. Colorado State only averages 22.4 PPG and this is their first time favored on the road since they lost by 21 at Fresno State in LY’s opener. UNM is obviously due to cover and this is probably the most opportune time to take them all season. Take the points. 10* New Mexico

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Well, this is certainly the ultimate “letdown” spot for A&M isn’t it? Last week, I called it a “great buy low spot” on the Aggies, who were coming off B2B losses (after previously winning 11 in a row) and getting a ton of points at home. Well, wouldn’t you know they went out and pulled the biggest upset of the College Football season, beating top-ranked Alabama 41-38. It’s now a completely different situation this week as Jimbo Fisher’s team must guard against overconfidence as they hit the road to face Missouri, a conference opponent they haven’t faced in awhile. Gotta fade this week. 

Both of these schools moved from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012. They faced off in 2013 & ‘14 w/ Mizzou winning both games. Going back to their Big 12 days, the Tigers have won five of the previous six matchups! This is A&M’s first trip to Columbia since that initial SEC meeting in 2013. Now when the Aggies arrive they may find a fanbase that’s bordering on destitution. That’s because Mizzou has not covered a single spread in 2021 and is on an 0-8 ATS run dating back to last season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the country. 

Why would I be interested in taking the Tigers then? Well, in addition to this being the ultimate letdown spot for A&M and Mizzou being “just plain due,” this is the most points the Tigers have gotten in any game this season and the first time they are a home dog. Two of their losses have been by seven points (one in OT at Boston College). They led by 27 in the 4Q LW at home vs. North Texas and should have covered that game (were -18.5). I bought low on A&M last week, now it’s time to “sell high” on them and buy low on the opposition. Take the points. 8* Missouri

10* Texas (12:00 ET): They say “everything is bigger” down in Texas and in the case of my top Big XII selection for the 2021 College Football season, that is certainly the case. Obviously, the Longhorns really let one “slip away” last week in the Red River Rivalry. They led Oklahoma 28-7 after 1Q, 38-20 at half and 41-30 after the 3Q. They lost 55-48. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they didn’t even cover the pointspread. Despite that being their second loss of the season, I still believe the Longhorns can be a Top 10 team by season’s end. Love them this week as my power ratings say this should be a double digit spread!

It’s another unbeaten team from the state of Oklahoma that UT is facing this week. This time it’s Oklahoma State, who is 5-0 SU and coming off a bye. In all due respect to Mike Gundy’s team, they are no Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lived dangerously the first month of the season, winning every game by 11 points or less and three of those wins were by a total of 13 points. They trailed in three of the five wins, barely outgained a FCS team and were down entering the 4Q vs. Tulsa. They were down double digits to Boise State in their only previous road game.

That last sentence brings me to another difference between this and last week for Texas - this game takes place in Austin where they are a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2021. Also, just to reiterate the drop in class when it comes to the opposition, I (like everyone else) consider Oklahoma a top six team in the country. The pollsters may have OK State at #12 entering this week, but they don’t even make my Top 35! It speaks volumes that the unranked team is favored here. A few weeks ago, when discussing Va Tech-WVU, I talked about how well unranked favorites tend to do ATS when hosting Top 25 opponents. Lay the points here as OK State’s unbeaten run will come to an end. 10* Texas

10* San Jose State (10:30 ET): The abbreviated 2020 College Football season saw San Jose State come out of nowhere to win its first conference title since 1984! The Spartans upset Boise State in the MWC Championship Game and took an unbeaten record (7-0 SU!) into the Arizona Bowl. That’s when I struck. My 10* College Football Game of the Year was not only on their bowl opponent, Ball State +9, but SJSU ended up losing that game outright 34-13. Needless to say, that was one of my biggest wins EVER.

This year SJSU (19 returning starters) went from the hunter to the hunted and things have not gone as well. They’re 3-3 SU through six weeks and while they’ve won every game they were supposed to win (3-0 SU as favorites), they’re 0-5 ATS L5 games. Last week may have been their worst game since the Arizona Bowl as they turned it over three times and were beaten 32-14 at Colorado State. It may seem like a strange time to jump on board, but this Friday marks the 1st game in 2021 that the Spartans have been installed as home underdogs. I really like the spot. They haven’t lost a home game since 2019. 

It seems as if things have almost come full circle as SJSU will be welcoming in the last remaining unbeaten in the Mountain West, San Diego State. The Aztecs are 5-0 SU with a couple upset wins over Pac 12 schools (Arizona & Utah). But they were outgained twice, in the OT win over Utah and by New Mexico State (!). This is just their second road game. They are ranked #24 by the AP & the Coaches, but they barely scratch my top 75 and are easily the lowest rated of the 13 remaining unbeatens. San Jose State was on a 6-2 ATS run as a conference dog before running into a rested opponent last week. After the turnovers, Colorado State only had to move the ball 37 yards to get nine crucial points. Playing host to an unbeaten team, on a short week, is a much different scenario. Take the points. 10* San Jose State

8* Clemson (7:00 ET): The last three weeks have seen Syracuse host two unbeaten teams. The first, which was Liberty, left with a loss. The second was Wake Forest last Saturday. That game went to overtime, but this time the Orange came up a little short, losing 40-37 on the scoreboard. But they did leave with the cash as 5.5-point underdogs. It was their fourth straight game covering the spread and they are now 5-1 ATS overall on the season. (Only ATS loss was to Rutgers). 

It’s certainly surprising that Clemson isn’t the third straight unbeaten to visit the Carrier Dome. Even more shocking is that Dabo Swinney’s team has already lost TWICE, once to Georgia (that’s fine) and then in overtime at NC State (not that bad). Even after rebounding two weeks ago against Boston College (won 19-14), the Tigers are 0-5 ATS. They are one of just three FBS teams to be winless against the spread. I know that the offense has lacked “pop.” But coming out of a bye, this is a GREAT buy low spot. 

While Clemson is rested, Syracuse is coming off three consecutive games that were decided by three points. Eventually that’s got to wear a team down. Normally, the Orange would be “up” for a visit from the ACC’s resident stalwart, but this time I think they are ripe for the picking. After spending one week out of the Top 25 (first time since 2014), Clemson should be ready to go on a run. They are still in the Top 10 in my power ratings and must be respected. We’re getting a discount here. Trust me. Lay the points. 8* Clemson

8* Memphis (7:30 ET): What has happened to Memphis? Since pulling off a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win against Mississippi State last month, the Tigers have lost three straight games - by a total of 12 points. They were favored in two of the losses - home vs. UTSA and at Temple. Both of those games saw them blow 17+ point leads. Last week in Tulsa, the Tigers outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards, but that was wiped away by a -3 turnover differential and they lost on the scoreboard 35-29 as a 3.5-point underdog. Needless to say, they are glad to be back at the Liberty Bowl where they’ve won 17 of 18. 

Save for a shocking 34-30 upset over UCF, who was starting a backup QB, Navy has mostly been a sinking ship in 2021. The Middies are 1-4 SU and coming off a tough 31-24 loss to unbeaten SMU. While they led by as many as two touchdowns in the 2Q, Navy was outgained in the game 404-241. This offense has simply not been clicking the way it used to as the Midshipmen are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 282.6 total yards per game. This will be just the second time Ken Niumatalolo’s team has had to “set sail” from Annapolis this season. I don’t like the spot for them.

Had they not rallied with 17 4Q points against UCF, then Navy would be 0-5. Memphis’ one loss at Liberty Bowl in the last 18 tries came the last time they were here, against UTSA, whom they led 21-0 early. I certainly can’t see the Tigers dropping B2B home games and will lay the points here as they’ve outgained their L3 opponents despite being 0-3 SU/ATS! The problem is they were -7 in TO’s in those three games. They gained over 600 yards of total offense last week. Navy is 3-0 ATS its L3 games, but they’ve been a dog of 13 or more points every time. Pardon another pun, but the Midshipmen are lacking in the necessary “firepower” here. 8* Memphis

8* Memphis (9:00 ET): After pulling out a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win at Mississippi State three weeks ago, the worm has really turned against Memphis. They’ve lost two straight, blowing 17+ point leads in both games. I can’t decide which “choke job” was more shocking. Was it the one at home against UTSA where they up 21-0 after one quarter and never trailed until the final play? Or was it last week where they were 11-point favorites over a bad Temple team? Regardless what the correct answer is, I see the Tigers bouncing back this week against a Tulsa team that should NOT be laying points.

Tulsa is 1-4 SU and just got handed its lunch by Houston last Thursday. It was 28-0 early in the 2Q and ended up being a 45-10 final. I can understand the Golden Hurricane getting a little respect here as they did cover at both Oklahoma State and Ohio State. But they also lost outright at home to FCS Cal Davis in the season opener. They did not play Memphis in 2020, but have lost the last three head to head matchups (2017-19) by an average of 18 PPG. Again, I just don’t see how they’re favored here.

Last year snapped Memphis’ three-year streak of AAC Championship Game appearances. The loss to UTSA ended a 17-game win streak at the Liberty Bowl. But they are still a stronger team than Tulsa. They’ve led for 104 of the 120 minutes the L2 games, yet somehow managed to go 0-2. I think this is a “get right” game. They’ve scored 31 or more points in all five games and could easily be 5-0. Tulsa has topped 23 points in only one game thus far and that just won’t cut it here. 8* Memphis

8* Texas A&M (8:00 ET): A&M had an 11-game win streak (going back to last season, obviously) snapped two weeks ago by Arkansas. Then they lost again last week to Mississippi State. Now they must face top-ranked Alabama this Saturday night at Kyle Field. Things have definitely turned in College Station, but with “the world” figuring to be on ‘Bama in this one, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Aggies, who are at home and getting a ton of points. They are still a Top 20 team in my eyes.

Running through Alabama’s credentials would probably only serve to dissuade your interest in the other side, so I’ll refrain from doing so here. It is interesting though that the public had some doubt in Nick Saban’s team going into last week’s game with Ole Miss. Now they’re back on the Bama train. Coming into the season, this was thought to be the Crimson Tide’s toughest regular season matchup. I know A&M is dealing with some key injuries, but should bettors really be writing them off to this degree? 

Zach Calzada will make his 4th start at QB for Texas A&M. The offense has definitely suffered since Haynes King broke his leg against Colorado, but I think the Aggies can put enough points on the board here to stay within the number. Defensively, they’ve yet to allow more than 26 points in any game this season. I’m sure they’ll allow more than that here, but it is worth noting they allow fewer PPG than does the Bama defense. Bama’s defense struggled in its only other “true” road game, giving up 29 points and 440 yards to Florida. Take the points. 8* Texas A&M

8* LSU (7:30 ET): LSU is 3-2 SU on the year and coming off a 24-19 loss to Auburn, which prompted HC Ed Orgeron to come out and take “responsibility” for the ongoing woes in the Bayou. This program is just two years removed from winning the National Championship, but has gone just 8-7 SU since. With last week marking the first of six consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, Orgeron better get this figured out quick. This week, the Tigers are road underdogs to a 5-0 Kentucky team.

But UK is a bit fortunate to still be unbeaten in my view. They squeaked by Florida last week, 20-13, despite the Gators running NINE plays inside the 20-yard line in the final minute. It was the Wildcats’ first time beating Florida at home in 35 years, so this week is a bit of a letdown spot even though it’s LSU coming to town. Mark Stoops’ team was outgained 382-224 last week and it was their fourth straight win by seven points or less. Eventually, lady luck runs out on you. For UK, I think that time will be this week.

For what it’s worth, LSU led Auburn for most of the game last week. They only trailed for the final 3:11. It was a 13-point lead in the 2Q and nine-point lead entering the 4Q. This looks to be a great buy low spot as my power rankings say the Tigers should be the favorites in this one, even on the road. Kentucky now goes from the hunter to the hunted and I just can’t see an LSU team that’s been favored in every game thus far dropping to 3-3 SU. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as underdogs and 6-1 ATS L7 off an ATS loss. Take the points.  8* LSU

10* Troy (7:00 ET): Troy is coming off B2B losses and because of that, I think we’re getting a pretty solid value this week. Both losses took place on the road, the first being a real shocker vs. LA Monroe, a game Troy was favored to win by 23.5 points and had a 378-290 edge in total yards. Yet somehow they lost 29-16. Then came a game effort last week at South Carolina, but four turnovers proved to be the Trojans’ undoing there. The most costly TO was a “pick-six” in the final minute of the 1st half. Troy actually finished with more first downs than the Gamecocks (21-19), but that was little consolation in a 23-14 defeat as 6.5-point dogs.

I’m expecting a lot better performance from Chip Lindsey’s team this week as they return home to face Georgia Southern. Not only are the Trojans looking to square away their record at 3-3 SU this season, but they’re playing with revenge for a 20-13 loss last year in Statesboro where they were three-point favorites. This is Lindsey’s third year here and he’s still looking to return the program to the level of 2017-19 when the Trojans won 10+ games every year under Neal Brown. In the first home game in nearly a month, this is pretty close to “must win” for Lindsey.

Ga Southern just ended a three-game losing streak last week with a 59-33 win over Arkansas State. It was their first game under interim HC Kevin Whitley as Chad Lunsford was fired after a 1-3 start. It was somewhat of a misleading home win for Whitley and the Eagles as total yardage was even but they were +4 in turnovers. Both times Ga Southern has been asked to go on the road, they’ve lost by 30+ points. This is a one-dimensional team on offense and defensively they rank 114th in the country in scoring. Troy is 22nd in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 17 PPG. All signs point to a big Troy win here. 10* Troy. 

9* Southern Miss (7:00 ET): Yes, I know that Southern Miss is down to its third string QB. Freshman Jake Lange made his first career start last week against Rice and threw three interceptions while also being sacked five times. That’s to be expected with a freshman, but what impressed me is that Lange did throw for 300+ yards. Unless there’s been some sort of “football renaissance” down in El Paso that I’m unaware of, I don’t understand why UTEP is now favored in this one (other than people are scared of a backup QB). I’m taking the points. 

UTEP is 4-1 SU. How shocking is that record? Well, from 2017-20, the Miners won just five games total! Three of them came last season, but two were against FCS opponents. Incredibly, coming into 2021, this program had just two FBS wins under HC Dana Dimel. They’ve already topped that number this season (with 3), but two were against the “New Mexico teams” (both of whom stink) and then last week the Miners needed a late TD to top Old Dominion at home. I really can’t see this team moving to 5-1 SU. 

Southern Miss has dominated this C-USA rivalry, winning five straight meetings and covering three of the last four. They’ve outgained UTEP in all 10 meetings as conference opponents, by an average of 188 YPG! UTEP hasn’t been within 120 yards in any of those 10 games. Also, the Miners are 0-9 SU their L9 C-USA road games, so I just can’t see why anyone would put this much faith in them. They had fewer first downs than ODU did last week. 9* Southern Miss

8* Boise State (3:30 ET): BYU is undefeated (5-0) and ranked #10 in the country. My own power rankings have far less regard for them as they’re not even in the top 50. So the Cougars are almost an “automatic fade” for me now as I believe they’ll drop a game sooner rather than later. Making things even more enticing is the fact that perhaps no team in the country is as banged up at QB as BYU is right now. Starter Jaren Hall (ribs) did not play last week and his backup Baylor Romney suffered a concussion against USF. Hall could return this week, but if not it will be freshman Jacob Conover making his first career start. Regardless of who ends up starting, I’m definitely taking the points in this one.

In light of the BYU QB situation, I’m pretty shocked to see how this line has moved during the week. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that Boise State just lost for the third time this year, 41-31 at home to Nevada as a 3.5-point favorite. But that was a case where the Broncos were an unfortunate -3 in turnovers. Their other two losses - to UCF and Oklahoma State - were by a combined six points. Note that BSU has had the 1st half lead in each of their three losses. I feel they are better than their 2-3 SU record. It was two weeks ago that I took them as road favorites going into face an unbeaten Utah State team. They won for me there 27-3.

Boise State’s QB situation is not a concern as Hank Bachmeier threw for 388 yards and four touchdowns last week. Yes, he was responsible for two turnovers. But I still trust him more than whoever ends up under center for BYU. Injured ribs are a serious thing for a QB, so Hall isn’t going to be 100 percent. The freshman Conover didn’t look all that great last week.  But above all else, the Broncos remember the 51-17 beatdown they were handed by BYU last year on the blue turf. That BYU team lost five players to the NFL, including QB Zach Wilson. Look for a much different story this time around. 8* Boise State

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): An argument could be made that this is a letdown spot for #5 Cincinnati as they are coming off perhaps the biggest win in school history last week, a 24-13 triumph in South Bend over Notre Dame. But one could also argue that Temple is also due for a letdown as it is coming off a shocking 34-31 upset of Memphis as 11-point home dogs. I know that the spread is rather sizable in this one, but my power ratings say it should be more than FIVE touchdowns. I’ll go ahead and trust my numbers.

The Bearcats not only must continue to win, but also win impressively if they are to have any shot at making the CFP. An unbeaten regular season is certainly a prerequisite for even being considered for one of the four spots. With all the chaos this year in College Football, Luke Fickell’s team has a shot. Going on the road and beating Indiana and Notre Dame was huge for the resume. Now it’s time to simply blow out a lesser opponent. The first two games of the Bearcats’ season were both 35-point wins (over Miami and Murray State) and that’s what I’m looking for here. 

Give Temple credit for pulling the upset last week, but they were down 17 to Memphis before storming back for a shocking second half comeback. Furthermore, in losses to Boston College and Rutgers, the Owls were outscored 89-17. They will give up a LOT of points this week as they’ve yet to face an offense anywhere close to the caliber of Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won their L3 Friday night home games by a total of 88 points. They continue to roll. 10* Cincinnati

10* Coastal Carolina (7:30 ET): This line ought to be more than three touchdowns, so I’ll “follow” the early money here and lay the points with the Chanticleers. The defending Sun Belt Champs have looked awesome in recent weeks, defeating their last two opponents by a combined score of 112-9! Now UMass and LA Monroe are two of the worst FBS teams in the country. But so is this week’s opponent, Arkansas State. ASU has allowed 41+ points to every FBS opponent so far and 52+ in three of those four games. They are dead last in the FBS in yards per game allowed (563.8).  Lay the points. 

In a short week, now is not the time where Arkansas State can get its many defensive issues fixed.  The Chanticleers’ offense is potent, averaging 528 yards and 48.2 points per game. It is led by QB McCall, who is completing 80% of his passes while leading the nation in yards per pass attempt. The ASU defense just gave up 500+ yards RUSHING last week, so they are in for a world of hurt here. 

The only game so far where Coastal had any trouble was when they visited Buffalo in Week 3. They struggled due to an inability to stop the run, but ASU is NOT a team capable of replicating the kind of success Buffalo had running the football. Because they are always trailing, the Red Wolves have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season and average a rather pathetic 67 YPG over land (on just 2.8 YPC!). They like to throw, but the problem is Coastal is allowing just 130.8 pass YPG, third fewest in the country. This will get ugly. 10* Coastal Carolina

8* Tulane 1st Half (7:30 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. Houston comes in at 4-1 SU while Tulane is 1-4 SU. Somewhat predictably, the public is betting this one based on those WL records. But the records are a little misleading in the sense that Tulane has played - by far - the tougher schedule of the two teams. Already, the Green Wave have been asked to go to Oklahoma (game moved due to Hurricane Irma) and Ole Miss. In addition to facing those two P5 opponents, they’ve also had to take on two more pretty good teams, UAB and East Carolina. I’m seeing some value with the home dog, at least in the 1st half. Take the points.

Houston had been favored in each of its first four games. Then came last week where the Cougars were three-point dogs at Tulsa. They could not have asked for a better start to the game. It was 21-0 early in the 2Q after Tulsa’s first four possessions resulted in two punts, a turnover on downs and an INT. Frankly, I thought the final score (45-10) was a little misleading and not really representative of where I’ve got those two teams in my power ratings. Houston’s other three wins were all against bad teams and it should be pointed out that two weeks ago against Navy, they were down 10 at halftime. 

Tulane could certainly point to a -4 turnover differential as to why it got blown out, 52-29, at East Carolina last week. It was the second straight game where the Green Wave turned it over four times and second straight outright loss as a favorite. Bad starts doomed them in both games. At home Thursday night, I do not see them falling into such an early hole. This is a team that only lost by five points at Oklahoma. They have a good QB (Michael Pratt) and are 10-2 ATS at home under HC Willie Fritz. With SMU, Cincinnati and UCF all looming on the schedule, the Green Wave desperately needs to win Thursday night. 8* Tulane 1st Half

8* LSU (9:00 ET): Auburn has already lost once as an underdog this season. That loss came at Penn State by a score of 28-20 two weeks ago. The Tigers probably should have also lost last week to Georgia State at Jordan-Hare, but a QB change in the second half propelled them to a 34-24 come from behind victory. That was a misleading final though as the Tigers got two non-offensive TDs in the second half, one a pick six in the final 30 seconds which came right after a 98-yard drive and the go-ahead score. Now they head to a place where they haven’t won in two decades. They’ve dropped 10 straight in Death Valley.

With TJ Finley leading the comeback last week, he’s likely to at least split time with Bo Nix this week. Whomever is playing QB for Auburn must deal with a defense that leads the country with 20 sacks. It’s an interesting storyline with Finley having left LSU to play for Auburn. But this could quickly turn into a case of “don’t know what you got until it’s gone.” First year coach Bryan Harsin is dealing with a lot of issues right now as he just fired his WR coach. Throw in what figures to be a rowdy, late Saturday night crowd in Baton Rouge and this just looks like a really tough spot for the road team.

Back in the opener, I faded LSU as they were playing at a UCLA team that already had a game under its belt. That turned out to be the correct move. But since then, these Tigers have really turned things around with three straight impressive wins, including at Mississippi State last week. While the final margin ended up being just three points, the Bayou Bengals were up by 18 in the 4Q. They don’t have any issues at QB as Max Johnson’s 15 TD passes are second most in the country. This is a big revenge spot for LSU after losing 48-11 LY in Jordan Hare. They are a much better team in 2021. Lay the points. 8* LSU

10* Old Dominion (9:00 ET): ODU may seem like an odd team to go “all in” on this week, but the Monarchs are off a very misleading 35-34 home loss to Buffalo last week and I look for them to bounce back. They outgained the Bulls 433-297 LW in Norfolk, but it didn’t matter as they were behind 35-7 at halftime thanks to two non-offensive scores. They outscored UB 27-0 in the second half but then in the cruelest of fates missed the potential game-tying XP with just 19 seconds left. At least they covered as 13-point underdogs. I’m taking the points this week. 

It’s not just last week’s misleading final that has led me to ODU this week. How about UTEP being favored? Now the Miners did cover as 9.5-point road chalk in Week 1, but that was against the worst FBS team in the country, New Mexico State (yes, even worse than UConn). UTEP is now 3-1 SU after upsetting New Mexico 20-13 last week here in El Paso. The Miners also pitched a 2H shutout, outscoring the Lobos 17-0 to erase what was a 13-3 halftime deficit. UTEP now has the same number of wins over FBS teams this year (2) as they did the previous FOUR SEASONS COMBINED! 

This is a matchup of the two teams predicted to finish last in the respective C-USA divisions. ODU does not have a win over FBS team since 2018 as they were one of three teams that elected to skip the 2020 season. This is their best shot at one since a one-point loss to UTSA late in the ‘19 season. The UTEP defense is allowing only a 19% conversion rate on third down, which is a totally unsustainable number, so look for some big plays out of the ODU run game (two backs averaging 6.0 YPC) and the dog to leave with the cash. 10* Old Dominion

9* Central Florida (3:30 ET): The Golden Knights have had two weeks to stew over a 42-35 loss to Louisville, a game that was decided on a 66-yard “pick-six” in the closing seconds. I look for them to come out and hammer a Navy team that is rather “lost at sea” at this point. The Midshipmen are 0-3 and while they looked somewhat better in last week’s 28-20 loss at Houston, this simply is not the same kind of team we’re used to seeing under HC Ken Niumatalolo. Lay the points with the rested visitor. 

Central Florida’s season began by hosting Boise State. Though they actually fell behind 21-0 early in that game, they absolutely deserved to come from behind and win 36-31 as they statistically dominated the Broncos in that one. It was a 573-283 edge in total yards and would have been a blowout had it not been for an early 100 yard INT return for TD by Boise. UCF then crushed FCS Bethune-Cookman as you’d expect, putting up 63 points for 1st year HC Gus Malzahn. The loss two weeks ago doesn’t at all dim my view that this is the top challenger to Cincinnati in the AAC this year. 

Meanwhile, Navy now finds itself towards the bottom of the conference. They could put up only 10 combined points in the first two games and an embarrassing 68 total yards in a 23-3 home loss to Air Force. The Middies did lead at the half LW, but are now facing an opponent that has easily won the two previous matchups. The extra week to prepare for the Navy triple option is huge for the UCF defense. Even with a backup QB making his first career start, the Golden Knights should roll in this one. 9* Central Florida

9* Eastern Michigan (2:30 ET): Chris Creighton, now in his eighth year at EMU, has done a great job at turning around this once-sorry program. He is now gunning for his second 4-1 SU start in six years. Prior to his arrival in Ypsilanti, the Eagles had started 4-1 just twice in 28 years! Their only loss here in 2021 came to a Wisconsin team that I still think is much better than its record. All three wins have come against bad teams, but at least they’ve been blowouts; all three coming by 14 points or greater. 

A clear sign of the turnaround engineered here by Creighton is the fact his team has beaten Northern Illinois each of the last two seasons. Prior to those two wins, EMU had lost 11 straight to NIU and 19 of 21. They will now be going for their first three-game win streak in the series since 1958! Conversely, Northern Illinois has had just three losing seasons in 13 years, but two of those were 2019 and 2020. The Huskies didn’t even win a game LY (0-6) and that included a 41-33 loss as six-point road underdog to EMU. The year before saw the Eagles come here to DeKalb and win 45-17 as five-point dogs. 

Northern Illinois may be off to a 2-2 start this year, but the defense has surrendered 50+ points in both losses and one of the wins (22-21 upset over Ga Tech in the opener) was very misleading. They were outgained in that victory, then were very lucky to earn a push here at home vs. Wyoming the following week as they were down by as many as 26 in that game. After getting crushed 63-10 by Michigan, the Huskies did win last week, but that was against FCS Maine. EMU is 23-8 ATS L31 road games, including 20-6-1 as a dog. 9* Eastern Michigan

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): So we’ve got Michigan, 4-0 SU and ranked #14 in the country, GETTING points from unranked 1-2 Wisconsin. Now the game is in Madison (more on that later), but this line probably is surprising to some. Not to me. Michigan was outgained 352-275 last week by Rutgers and did next to nothing offensively in the second half. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a very misleading 41-13 loss to Notre Dame last week where they actually OUTGAINED the Irish. Believe it or not, we’re getting a GREAT value here on the Badgers at home. Lay the points. 

This is precisely the kind of game Jim Harbaugh always seems to lose. He is 0-11 SU as underdog since returning to his alma mater. Since 2015, Michigan is the ONLY team in the FBS not to have a single outright win as a dog. Madison has also been a “house of horrors” for past Wolverines teams. They have not won here since 2001, dropping five in a row including four straight by double digits. Michigan’s inability to run the ball last week in the 2H vs. Rutgers, or even convert a single third down, seems like it will be a major issue here as they face the nation’s top rush defense. Wisconsin has allowed only 69 rushing yards total in three games! 

Then there’s this tidbit: There have been nine unranked teams favored vs. a top-15 opponent since 2016. Seven of the nine won, including WVU (who I had) over Va Tech two weeks ago. This shapes up to be a CLASSIC anti-public bet. The respective turnover differentials of the two teams, Wisconsin is -7 while Michigan has yet to turn it over even once, is bound to even out. The Badgers had THREE non-offensive TD’s go against them in the 4Q LW at Soldier Field. Look for it to be their defense making the big plays this week as they win at home. 8* Wisconsin

10* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned at this line as my power ratings say Florida Atlantic should be favored. So there’s no question I’m taking the points here. The line is even more enticing when you consider that the Owls are also on a 6-2 ATS run as underdogs and will be facing a defense that just gave up 628 total yards (and 49 points) last week. After starting 5-1 SU in Willie Taggart’s first season here in Boca Raton, FAU hit a bit of a snag, losing its final three games last year (including the bowl) and to Florida in the 2021 season opener (understandable). But off B2B convincing wins, they look to have turned a corner. 

Air Force is also 2-1, but just lost outright as nine-point favorites to Utah State last week. It was a 49-45 shootout that saw the Falcons run the ball better than they did in either of the first two games (437 yards) but the defensive “effort” simply wasn’t there. Of the 628 total yards allowed, 448 were through the air. Now they’ve got to deal with FAU QB N’Kosi Perry, who comes in averaging 290.3 YPG with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These teams have met once before (2018) and FAU gained 525 yards in a 33-28 win. All signs point to another big offensive effort, so again - why WOULDN’T you take the points? 

FAU had seven games either cancelled or postponed because of COVID-19 last year. On the bright side, 30 of the 34 players who started a game last season returned for Taggart, who finally was able to get some Spring practices in. So this is a very experienced group set to hit the road, much more experienced than Air Force. FAU did cover against Florida and would have covered in ‘18 vs. Air Force if not for a blocked punt in the final minute. Seeing as how Air Force twice blew an 11-point lead last week (including in the 4Q), I don’t see how anyone can expect them to win by any real margin. 10* Florida Atlantic

9* South Carolina (7:00 ET): This is yet another matchup on the Saturday card where I feel the wrong team is favored. Kentucky is 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘18) but South Carolina is the more important (in our world) 3-0 ATS. The Gamecocks have lost a game, last week, but that was to a Georgia team that could be the best in the country right now. Two of UK’s wins have been close, including last week’s over FCS UT-Chattanooga, and all of them were in Lexington.The Wildcats only won by five (28-23) last week and didn’t even score enough points to cover the massive 31-point spread. Take the points here. 

Not much is being expected from South Carolina in Shane Beamer’s first year at the helm. The team was 2-8 SU in 2020. But Beamer (Frank’s son) didn’t inherit a bare cupboard. Opening with confidence-building victories over Eastern Illinois and East Carolina, the latter on the road, were huge even though the Georgia game didn’t work out last week. The Gamecocks still covered vs. Georgia to move to 3-0 ATS on the year. This is maybe Beamer’s best shot at a SEC win this season, so expect a solid performance. Luke Doty, who was originally going to be the team’s first string QB before injuring his foot over the summer, is back and now ready to make his first start. So that’s another boost. 

While this season is Beamer’s first foray into SEC football as a head coach, his players know the opponent well and desperately want to beat them. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS the L8 years vs. Kentucky and the current senior class would have just one win against them, the last time they hosted back in 2019. That was a 24-7 win and cover as 3.5-point favorites. This Wildcats’ offense has turned the ball over far too much this season (eight times) and the defense is letting opponents convert at 45% on third down. South Carolina isn’t as bad as many in the SEC think and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 9* South Carolina

9* UCLA (6:00 ET): The bloom is off the Rose (Bowl) so to speak as UCLA lost for the first time last week, a 40-37 shootout with Fresno State. But one upset loss should not cause you to disregard what this team has been doing in Chip Kelly’s third season in Westwood. The Bruins got as high as #13 in rankings, mostly on the strength of their 38-27 upset of LSU. I took them in that game and in the opener when they absolutely crushed Hawaii 44-10. I really like the improvement I’ve seen thus far out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently leads all Pac 12 QB’s with seven touchdown passes. 

Meanwhile, I also won with Stanford last week as they went to Vanderbilt and won 41-23 as 12.5-point favorites. That was a nice follow-up for them after their shocking upset of Southern Cal the week prior, 42-28 as 17-point dogs (which led to USC firing Clay Helton). The change at QB to Tanner McKee, following a season-opening loss to Kansas State, seems to have been a game-changer. But you should note that the Cardinal were outgained by the Trojans in that upset win and then allowed nearly 400 yards to a not good Vandy team last week. They aren’t playing Vandy again this week. 

This will be Stanford’s 1st game in Palo Alto since Week 2 of last season. It’s not like they have some great homefield advantage though. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 home games. This is a massive revenge spot for UCLA, who is just 1-12 SU and 2-13 ATS the L15 meetings with the Cardinal. But the one win was the last time they came to Stanford Stadium, 34-16 as a four-point dog. It was a 49-48 loss LY in 2OT as Thompson-Robinson got hurt. If not for a last-second UCLA loss last week, you have to think this line would be a lot higher. In a battle of teams I’m a combined 3-0 ATS with this season, I’ll lay the points. 9* UCLA

8* Boise State (12:00 ET): It says a lot that a 1-2 team would be favored over a 3-0 team. Especially when the 1-2 team is a nine-point favorite on the road! Boise State’s two losses so far have been by a total of six points and were to UCF and Oklahoma State, two very competent programs. Meanwhile, Utah State has had to rally from a double digit deficit in all three games. Their two wins over FBS teams (Washington State, Air Force) were by a combined seven points and in each instance the Aggies battled back from a double digit 4Q deficit. So they very well could also be 1-2 heading into the Mountain West opener against a team they have struggled with in the past. 

Actually, to say USU has “struggled” in the past vs. Boise State would be putting it mildly. The Aggies are 1-17 SU/4-14 ATS the previous 18 head to head meetings. The lone SU victory took place here in Logan back in 2015. Utah State has not fared well in conference openers recently, going 0-4-1 ATS. I am shocked that they’ve opened this season 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘78) considering they won just one game a year ago and averaged only 15.5 PPG. They only led for the final 3:54 against Air Force last week and that was after trailing most of the way at Wazzu.

Boise State, like Utah State, has a first year coach leading the ship. The Broncos blew a 21-0 lead in the opener vs. UCF and then a 13-point lead vs. Oklahoma State. Really, you could make the case that Boise is the team that “should” be 3-0 while USU “should” be 1-2. It was 42-13 on the blue turf when these teams met last year and eight of the last nine wins in the series have been by double digits. The Utah State defense is very questionable right now as it has given up over 1,000 yards the last two weeks. Air Force gained 437 on the ground alone and even FCS North Dakota went for 442 total. Considering the history of this rivalry - and the fact USU has been down by DD in every game so far - I’ll gladly lay the points. 8* Boise State

8* Boston College (12:00 ET): In its first game w/o starting QB Phil Jurkovic (could be out the rest of the season), Boston College put up 28 points last week even with backup Denis Grosel completing only 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards. The running game - which saw three different backs find the endzone - was ultra-effective in going for 187 yards on 35 carries. Of course, it also helps to have a defense which is sixth nationally, allowing only 10.3 PPG. It’s because of that defense and this game being in Chestnut Hill that I feel we have a “false favorite” on our hands with Missouri. Take the points in this one. 

Boston College is looking to complete the non-conference portion of its schedule a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s not been a challenging schedule to this point as the team has been favored by double digits in every game and twice by 40 or more. But the program has a solid reputation as an underdog, pulling 13 outright upsets the last five seasons and going 5-1 ATS its last six times in the role. But that’s only half the equation here. You’ve also got the fact that Missouri has been a lousy road team through the years, going 7-21 ATS L28 outside of Columbia. That includes 1-6 when laying points, which they are here. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS overall in 2021 including a 35-28 outright loss as a dog at Kentucky (7th straight year losing the SEC opener). 

The Eagles have a massive edge on the defensive side of the ball in this game. While they’ve allowed just 31 points in three games (28 of those against UMass), Mizzou’s defense is last among SEC teams in giving up 455.7 YPG. A lot of that has to do with the loss to UK, however the Tigers did give up nearly 300 yards rushing to SE Missouri State, a FCS school. When Grosel filled-in against UMass, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 199 yards. So look for him to put up better numbers than last week. I agree with my power ratings that BC should be favored. 8* Boston College

10* Virginia (7:00 ET): The Hoos are off their first loss of the season, 59-39 to a North Carolina team that is still well regarded despite its season opening loss (at Va Tech). The good news for UVA is that they are NOT playing UNC this week. It’s a matchup with Wake Forest instead. The Demon Deacons may come in undefeated (3-0 SU) and 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings but it’s not easy to win in Charlottesville where the home team is 19-2 SU since the start of the ‘18 season. The Cavaliers have covered five straight as home favorites and I think they’ll make it six in a row Friday night on ESPN2. Lay the points.

Wake Forest is just 2-7-1 ATS its L10 road games and this will be their first time leaving Winston-Salem this season. It’s not exactly been an impressive run of opponents they’ve faced to this point, beating William & Mary (FCS), Old Dominion and Florida State. That trio has a combined zero wins over FBS teams in 2021. The Demon Deacons were outgained by 55 YPG in ACC play last season and really benefited from SIX Florida State turnovers last week. It’s never good to lose 59-39 (like Virginia did last week). But at least they got to face an elite offense. WF has yet to face a good offense, let alone one on par with Virginia. 

The Cavaliers put up 574 yards of total offense last week, which would normally  lead me to ask “can they possibly match that?” But in their case, they’ve averaged 558.3 YPG through three weeks and been very consistent in doing so. QB Brennan Armstrong is #2 in the country in passing yards right now. The last time Virginia played at home, they crushed Illinois 42-14 as 10.5-point chalk. This is a big-time revenge game considering they’ve lost four straight times to Wake (1st time ever) and were favored in three of those games. No upset this time. 10* Virginia

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): This is Tulane’s second game against a ranked opponent this year. The first, while not a SU win, was certainly a “moral victory” of sorts. It was an ATS victory as well as they stayed  within a monster 31-point number against top five Oklahoma. Now we’ve seen many teams stay within generous numbers such as that one. But in this instance, the Green Wave only lost the game by five points (40-35). So what I’m saying here is they will not be intimidated when they pay a visit to Oxford this Saturday night to take on #16 Ole Miss. Last week saw Tulane win 69-20 over FCS Morgan State. 

Ole Miss’ season got off to a rousing start with a Labor Day beatdown of Louisville, 43-24 as nine-point favorites. That was without HC Lane Kiffin, who was in COVID protocol. If you recall, I went with the Under and despite the high score, that particular bet did cash. As impressive as the Rebels’ offense has been so far (they also hung 54 on Austin Peay last week), a lot of the focus has been on an improved defense. But realize that “improvement” has taken them from 126th in the FBS (which was next to last) in yards allowed last season to 73rd this season. This Ole Miss defense is about to receive its stiffest test yet from a Tulane offense that can match the firepower they’ve got here in Oxford 

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is one of the top signal callers in the country, but so too is Tulane’s Michael Pratt. The Green Wave have scored 104 points in two games and what makes the performance against OU all the more impressive is that they had to deal with the game being moved to Norman due to Hurricane Ida. Also make note of Tulane’s special teams. They lead the FBS in net punting and punt return defense. The underdog is going to put up a bunch of points in this game and thus should easily stay within the two touchdown spread. The Green Wave have covered 17 of their last 26 games overall. 8* Tulane

8* Stanford (8:00 ET): Both teams are off shocking upset victories, so the whole “letdown” is really a non-factor in this game. In the case of Stanford, their upset win was more “shocking” in terms of the point spread. They went to the Coliseum as 17-point underdogs last Saturday and beat USC 42-28. An 87-yard TD run by Nathaniel Peat opened the scoring for the Cardinal, who never trailed. The beatdown of the Trojans was so severe that they ended up firing Clay Helton after the game. The biggest takeaway for Stanford was the play of QB Tanner McKee, who threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs in his first start. 

The most shocking thing about Vanderbilt last week is that they won at all. The Commodores had dropped 11 in a row before winning at Colorado State 24-21 as 6-point dogs. It was a 38-yard FG with 19 seconds left that gave Clark Lea his first career win as head coach. In Lea’s first game, the Commies lost 23-3 to a FCS school (East Tennessee State) as 21-point favorites. Somewhat ironically, it was ETSU that provided Vandy its last win, back in 2019. The Commodores had lost 13 in a row to FBS teams before last week. It should be pointed out that they were outgained by 103 yards against CSU, another team that lost its opener to a FCS opponent. 

This is the 1st ever meeting between these academic powerhouses. It’s also the first time ever a Pac 12 team has paid a visit to Vanderbilt Stadium. Stanford has never visited a SEC school either. So there’s a real sense of unfamiliarity here. I think the real key is going to be McKee. He showed why he was such a prized recruit in leading the upset of USC. Thus you can pretty much disregard Stanford’s opening week game, a 24-7 loss to Kansas State, as McKee didn’t start that one. But you can’t discount just how bad Vandy is. If the Cardinal can hang 40+ points again, then they should have no difficulty covering the spread here. They led Southern Cal 42-13 last week. Lay the points. 8* Stanford

10* Toledo (4:00 ET): There’s a school of thought that says this is a prime letdown spot for Toledo, who is coming off a tough three-point loss at Notre Dame last week. The Rockets may have lost the game in South Bend 32-29, but they easily left with the cash as 16.5-point underdogs. Now they turn around and are laying more than two scores at home. Normally, I might agree with the prevailing wisdom. But in this instance, the Rockets are facing a Colorado State team that is off to as bad a start as anybody in College Football. The Rams are 0-2 with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt where they’ve missed the spread by a combined 30+ points. I’ll lay the number Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. 

Toledo got its first ever cover as a double digit dog under HC Jason Candle last week (previously 0-6 ATS). They led the Fighting Irish outright with just over a minute to go. They led at halftime as well. This is a team that should be in contention for a MAC Championship as it returns 21 starters from a team that outgained its six conference foes by an average of 131 YPG last season. Before facing Notre Dame, the Rockets blew out Norfolk State 49-10. There was no look ahead there. I don’t expect there to be a letdown here. 

But the crux of this play centers around just how bad CSU has been so far. Their first game was a 42-23 home loss to FCS South Dakota State. The Rams never led, trailed by as many as 26 and gave up almost 500 yards. Then they lost by three, again at home, to a very bad Vanderbilt team that had previously lost 11 in a row. The Rams have fallen into the bottom 10 of my power ratings and I now project them to win just two games this season. If you can believe it, those same power ratings say this should be a four touchdown spread! I’ll trust the numbers! 10* Toledo

9* Baylor (3:30 ET): Kansas suffered a real “bad beat” last Friday at Coastal Carolina. I know because I had the misfortune of playing the Jayhawks. They led outright (9-7) at the end of the first quarter and it was only a six-point game midway through the third. Keep in mind they were getting 26.5 points. As you can surmise, things went badly down the stretch as Coastal Carolina scored the game’s final three touchdowns to make it 49-22. A missed XP early in the game cost KU bettors the cover and to add insult to injury, the team chose to go for it on fourth down (rather than kick a FG) on the final drive.

While some may look at a result like that and figure Kansas is “due” this week, I happen to think quite the opposite. After playing hard for three quarters against a Top 25 opponent last week, I wonder if the Jayhawks will come out “flat” for the Big 12 opener. Now the game is at home. But it’s also against Baylor, who has beaten them 11 consecutive times and covered nine straight. I laid a similar number with the Bears last year in Waco and they won easily 47-14. Each of the L9 victories over Kansas have been by a minimum of 19 points. While it may not get as ugly as last year, I’m laying the points again. 

The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 game in some time. In fact, it was Oct 26, 2019. It’s been 12 straight losses since. The L10 seasons have seen them go 5-84 SU in Big 12 play! They also only beat FCS South Dakota by a field goal in the opener (were slightly outgained). Remember that 1st year HC Lance Leipold was hired late (after the spring) due to the dismissal of Les Miles. Baylor is off its highest yardage and point total since the Art Briles era. Now the victim was an FCS school (Texas Southern), but the Bears will still take it. They are 2-0 SU having also defeated Texas State on the road, 29-20, in the opener. This is more of a fade on Kansas than anything else. 9* Baylor

8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): First impressions are always key and in the case of 2021 Miami football, the first impression wasn’t very good. “The U” was slaughtered by Alabama in their first game, losing 44-13. Not that it was expected to be that close; the Hurricanes were 19.5-point underdogs against the Tide despite being ranked #14 in the country at the time. But still it was a poor effort in front of a National TV audience. Manny Diaz’s team doesn’t get a “second chance at a first impression,” but at least they were able to defeat Appalachian State here in Coral Gables last week, even if it was only by a score of 27-25 (as seven-point chalk). 

With Miami 0-2 against the spread, Michigan State has the feel of a very “public dog” this weekend. The Spartans are 2-0 SU and ATS having gone on the road and upset Northwestern (as 3-point underdogs) in Week 1 and then handled their business against FCS Youngstown State (won 42-14 as 27-point favorites) in Week 2. In both games, Sparty scored a 75-yard TD on its first play from scrimmage. But now they are back on the road and facing their toughest opponent to date. After going 2-5 SU in Mel Tucker’s first season in East Lansing, Sparty was pegged by some to finish last in the Big 10 East this season. So excuse me if I am still a little skeptical of what they bring to the table. 

Miami was expected to battle with North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC Coastal. It’s been a rough start to the season in the ACC, but if the ‘Canes end up with only the loss to Alabama on their resume, I think they’ll be smiling down on South Beach. This is a more experienced team compared to Michigan State and they are much stronger at the QB position with D’Eriq King. Miami has moved the ball okay so far, the problem has been scoring only two touchdowns on eight red zone opportunities. That’ll change. Michigan State had been just 2-8 SU/ATS as a road dog the previous two seasons before the opening week upset of what promises to be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this season. The Spartans’ offensive line, which has done its job thus far, is in for a rude awakening against this Miami defensive front. 8* Miami FL

8* West Virginia (12:00 ET): The Mountaineers can ill-afford a second loss this early in the season. They lost the season opener at Maryland 30-24 as 2.5-point chalk due in large part to an inability to run the football (just 48 carries on 21 yards). However, a -4 turnover margin was the biggest culprit in that upset loss which wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter. Last week was the classic “get-well game” in Morgantown as WVU routed FCS Long Island 66-0, scoring on all of its first eight possessions including seven TDs. Fortunately, the ‘Neers get to stay at home this week for what should be a much tougher game - against #15 Virginia Tech - who is looking for its first 3-0 start in four seasons. I’m laying the points. 

Home field advantage has proven vital for WVU in the past when facing non-conference opponents. They have not lost here to a non-conference foe since #2 LSU beat them back in 2011. They are 18-0 SU since that time. This will be Virginia Tech’s 1st road game of 2021. They are below .500 (7-8 straight up) away from Blacksburg the previous three seasons. What is interesting about this number is that you’ve got an unranked team laying points to the #15 team in the country. In this situation, it has always been smart to back the unranked chalk. Since 2016, unranked faves are 16-7 SU when facing a Top 20 opponent. I’ve got no problem laying a number this short in Morgantown. 

As I just said, Va Tech is now ranked 15th in the country, which is something I don’t think many expected to see this season. They opened with a 17-10 upset of North Carolina, a game where they were outgained 354-296. They also barely outgained Middle Tennessee State last week (383-349). My own power ratings aren’t nearly as bullish on the Hokies, placing them 27th in the country right now. They just lost TE James Mitchell to a season-ending knee injury. WVU had a solid defense LY for Neal Brown, allowing only 20.5 points and 291 yards per game. This is the most experienced team in Brown’s three years here. With Oklahoma up next on the docket, the Mountaineers REALLY can’t afford a loss this week. Adding more fuel to the fire is the fact the program’s last win over Va Tech was in 2003. 8* West Virginia

8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): The 7th ranked Aggies are coming off a very lethargic 10-7 win over unranked Colorado last week. Now that game was in Boulder and Jimbo Fisher did lose his starting QB (Haynes King) to injury. Zach Calzada will get the start this week. The fact A&M is laying more than four scores with a backup QB may not sound all that appealing, but the opponent is New Mexico, who I’d consider possibly one of the ten worst teams in America despite its 2-0 SU start. My power ratings have this line north of -40 (!) so we are actually getting a discount in College Station. I think Calzada is going to do just fine in this game and I look for the Aggies to win real big. Lay the points.

New Mexico is 2-0, but those wins were against Houston Baptist (FCS) and New Mexico State (2nd worst FBS team in my rankings). So it’s about as big a step up in class as possible for the Lobos this week. They didn’t even cover against either of the two patsies, winning the first game by only 10 points and second by only nine. Now this is the first 2-0 start in Albuquerque going back to 2005. But this is a team expected to finish at the bottom of the Mountain West this season. They’ve been fortunate to get five turnovers so far. 

Calzada did lead the GW drive last week, so he’s got that under his belt. He’s also backed up by a defense that surrendered just 54 total yards to Colorado in the second half and made them go 0 for 6 on third downs. New Mexico won’t score many points Saturday, making covering the spread more attainable for the Aggies. Heading into the SEC opener next week vs. Arkansas, look for Fisher to want to make a statement. This team has won 10 consecutive games since losing at Alabama early last season. They’ve won 27 straight over “Group of 5” teams by an average of almost 27 PPG. They’re 4-0 all-time vs. New Mexico with the three wins in College Station coming by an average of 46 PPG. 8* Texas A&M

10* Maryland (9:00 ET): For the time being, Illinois is still going to be getting some “residual respect” based on their opening week upset of Nebraska. The Fighting Illini closed as a 6.5-point home underdog for that game, but pulled a 30-22 upset thanks in large part to a safety & defensive TD. It was a great start to the Brett Bielema era in Champaign, but the Illini haven't won since. First they dropped a home game to UTSA (where they were a 4-point favorite) and then last week they got hammered 42-14 on the road by Virginia. The defense was torched for 556 yards by the Hoos and the number of points allowed by the Illini has gone up every week. Through three weeks, they are allowing 33.7 PPG. 

That’s bad news when getting set to face a Maryland team that just hung 62 points on the board last week. Granted that was against a FCS opponent in Howard. But Taulia Tagovailoa (yes, Tua’s younger brother) should have little difficulty carving up this Illini secondary. Tagovailoa has already thrown for 600+ yards in two games with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s completed 76% of his passes thus far and has the fifth highest passer rating among QBs with at least 60 attempts. If that’s not enough to impress you, perhaps the Terrapins upsetting West Virginia 30-24 in Week 1 should. The offense put up nearly 500 yards in that win. They also have RB Tayon Fleet-Davis, who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry. 

Illinois will be starting Brandon Peters at QB Friday night. Peters had originally won the job in camp, but suffered an injury in the win over Nebraska. The Illini faithful are going to hang their hat on Peters’ return, but I just don’t see that being enough to stay within the number here. Illinois has won just 2 of the last 15 times they’ve been a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and gone 5-10 ATS. These schools have met only once before and it ended up being a 63-33 win for Maryland three years ago. I still consider the Illini to be the worst team in the Big 10 and my power rankings say this should be a double digit spread. This won’t be another game like the one vs. Nebraska. Lay the points. 10* Maryland

8* Washington (8:00 ET): I understand that Washington just lost to a FCS school (Montana) and now has to travel cross-country to the Big House to face Michigan. But the line move for this matchup seems pretty severe considering UW was a preseason top 20 team and Michigan has become somewhat of a Big 10 “afterthought” under Jim Harbaugh. Should a 47-14 win against Western Michigan inspire this much confidence in the Wolverines? I don’t think so, especially considering they just lost star WR Ronnie Bell (who doubles as the kick returner) to a season-ending injury. Take the points Saturday night in Ann Arbor. 

The wide receiver position was very thin for Washington heading into the season opener. But still, that’s no excuse for losing to Montana and getting held to their lowest point total at home in 11 years. With the receiver group badly banged up, QB Dylan Morris didn’t help his team by tossing three interceptions. He was also sacked three times, despite playing behind what was thought to be one of the top offensive lines in the country. Bottom line is that 2nd year HC Jimmy Lake called the 13-7 defeat the most “embarrassing loss in the history of the program.” I’d expect the Huskies to come out strong here. 

With the receiver group still a question mark, Washington needs to commit to the run Saturday night. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, Michigan also just lost its best WR. So this could very well turn into a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses. That’s all the more reason to take the points in my eyes. Michigan QB Cade McNamara threw only 11 times for 136 yards last week. This line was close to a pick ‘em on the lookahead line. I just don’t see why the Wolverines should now be laying a touchdown. They are just 2-6 SU their L8 games vs. Power 5 teams and 1-11 ATS its L12 games vs. the Pac 12. 8* Washington

10* Iowa State (4:30 ET): Watching how the games unfolded last Saturday afternoon, I figured Iowa would end up being a pretty popular side in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week at Iowa State. Turns out that I was completely correct. The public sentiment is understandable considering how the Hawkeyes dismantled Indiana 34-6 in Week 1 while ISU struggled to get by FCS Northern Iowa. But the Cyclones, a top ten team in the preseason rankings, should not be cast aside so quickly. They have plenty of reasons to be motivated come Saturday afternoon and I absolutely love them laying a short number. 

The first reason Iowa State is going to be motivated come 4:30 ET in Ames is that ESPN College Gameday will be on campus for the first ever ranked vs. ranked meeting between these schools in the AP era. Now that also gives Iowa plenty of reason to be motivated here. But it’s the Cyclones looking to avenge five straight losses in this rivalry. The last time they met was 2019 and it was a one-point win for Iowa (18-17) here in Ames. This will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is set to go off as the favorite. They are 15-7 ATS vs. Top 25 opponents under HC Matt Campbell.

While Iowa’s Week 1 win was impressive, note that they got TWO pick-sixes in that win. They only outgained Indiana by 0.5 yards per play and did not score an offensive TD over the final 40 minutes of gametime. That game was also played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are now 16-1 SU the L17 times they have been a favorite of six points or less. But here they are underdogs on the road and they are just 1-7 ATS L8 in that situation. Yes, Kirk Ferentz’s team has not been beaten by more than one score since a 28-17 loss to Wisconsin early in the 2018 season. But Iowa State has QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and a defense that has allowed just 16 total points in the second half of its L6 games. 10* Iowa State

8* Buffalo (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a great spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are just 4-11 ATS as a home favorite going back to 2017 and they are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit favorite against a FBS opponent. They’ve lost five of the last seven times they’ve been favored, including the opener against Illinois, a game they were favored to win by more than a TD yet trailed by as many as 21. Scott Frost’s team did bounce back with a 52-7 win last week, but that was against FCS Fordham. That didn’t convince me they should be laying DD to a very live dog this week. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo has traditionally thrived in this situation. They are on a 9-2-1 ATS run as underdogs, which is the second best cover percentage taking points in the FBS going back to 2017. They are 4-0-1 ATS when getting double digits. Typically one of the best MAC teams (won the East Division last year), the Bulls are expected to take a step back in 2021 due to a late coaching change (Lance Leipold took the Kansas job in April) and a bevy of transfers that followed. But everything looked good last week when they completely overwhelmed FCS Wagner 69-7 in the opener. The offense gained 569 yards in the win. 

Nebraska just can’t be trusted under Frost as they’ve gone just 13-21 straight up during his tenure and never finished a season above .500. The program’s incredible streak of selling out home games has reached 376, but that’s because donors are now buying and distributing tickets. Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games vs Big 10 teams and won’t be intimidated going into Lincoln. There are upcoming road games at Oklahoma and Michigan State that may be on the Nebraska coaching staff’s minds. But they figure to have Buffalo’s full attention Saturday and I’m taking the points. In their L18 games vs. FBS teams, Nebraska has just ONE win by more than seven points. 8* Buffalo

10* Northern Illinois (1:30 ET): This could be a bit of a “sleepy” start for Wyoming as kickoff takes place at 12:30 local time in DeKalb. I can’t say that the Cowboys were all that impressive last week as they barely snuck by FCS Montana State, winning by a score of 19-16 as 19-point favorites after scoring a touchdown in the final minute. They led for just over five minutes of actual game time and were only +26 in total yards while gaining the same # of first downs as Montana State (17). Now they hit the road where they’ve lost seven of nine the previous two years. Take the points in this one. 

Northern Illinois definitely turned in one of the more surprising results of the opening weekend, beating Georgia Tech 22-19 as 19-point underdogs. Now, it would be a mistake to overreact to just one game, especially considering the Huskies were outgained in Atlanta by 128 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. But they also led most of the way and allowed just one touchdown through three quarters. It was a gutsy decision by HC Thomas Hammock that decided the game as he decided to go for two and the win after scoring a TD in the final minute. That should give his players plenty of confidence heading into the home opener. 

Northern Illinois went 0-6 SU last year, but figures to be much improved in 2021 as QB Rocky Lombardi transferred into the program after starting six games for Michigan State last year. Lombardi threw two touchdown passes in the opener and is joined by 19 returning starters. Wyoming won just two games last year and couldn’t score a TD until the 4Q last week vs. a FCS foe. Now they are laying points on the road? Seems questionable. My power rankings have this line as basically a pick ‘em, so I’ll grab the points with a team hungry for its first home win since the 2019 finale. 10* Northern Illinois

8* Army (11:30 AM ET): The Black Knights marched right over Georgia State in Week 1, winning 43-10 as 2.5-point underdogs. A 67-4 run to pass ratio wasn’t a problem considering the Cadets jumped out to a quick 21-0, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three drives. The defense allowed just 177 total yards, most of that coming on Georgia State’s two scoring drives. Now it’s back to West Point for the home opener where they’ll host a Western Kentucky team that could be looking ahead to next week. That’s a problem when facing the triple option. Lay the points in this one. 

The reason WKU could be looking ahead is because next week they’ll be hosting Indiana. There was no “lookahead” to this game as the Hilltoppers crushed Tennessee Martin last week 59-10. But that’s a FCS team and little can be taken from that game. I know that HC Tyson Helton has been great as an underdog and his team should improve upon LY’s 5-7 mark, but the offense averaged just 19.0 PPG in 2020 and you have to be concerned with the fact the defense just allowed 201 yards rushing on 34 carries last week. Needless to say, the triple option is a lot tougher to stop than the UT Martin ground game. 

Army has never beaten WKU in three all-time tries. The most recent meeting took place in 2019 and was a 17-8 loss as five-point road favorites in Bowling Green. The upperclassmen still remember that defeat and it’s not like the Black Knights aren’t already motivated to play their home opener on September 11th. A win here and a 4-0 start is a real possibility with home games vs. UConn and Miami OH on deck. I also think the early start time favors the home team in this one. Army is 8-2 ATS its L10 games as a favorite and feels undervalued here. I like that the line has come down a bit. 8* Army

8* Kansas (7:30 ET): Yes, the Jayhawks are still reeling from the mess left by the Les Miles’ regime and their 17-14 opening week victory over FCS South Dakota was certainly less than inspiring. The Jackrabbits even outgained them (slightly). But don’t tell that to the fanbase, who stormed the field after a 13-game SU losing skid ended last Friday in Lawrence. It took a late TD pass (with just 1:12 remaining) to get the win, but an outright win this week is not a concern of mine. All we need Lance Leipold’s team to do here is stay within three touchdowns + a field goal. I think they can do that. Take the points Friday night. 

Now Coastal Carolina is ranked #17 in the country, so this will not be easy for Kansas by any means. The Chanticleers rolled in their opening game (also against a FCS team), winning 52-14 as a 34-point favorite. They rolled up over 600 total yards on The Citadel. But even with this being a nationally televised game in Conway, it has the feel of a “letdown spot” for Coastal. Unlike the last two seasons, they have nothing to prove against Kansas, a P5 team they’ve previously beaten twice on the road. Those two wins in Lawrence were both by 15 points or less and Coastal was also an underdog in both games! It’s a totally different dynamic this time around. 

Coastal Carolina was Kansas’ only non-conference opponent in 2020. That was obviously a loss, but the previous two years did see the Jayhawks win both non-conf road games on the schedule. Each win - at Central Michigan in ‘18 and at Boston College in ‘19 - was by 24 points! It is crazy to think back and realize that KU was favored over CC last year. After all, they finished the season 0-9 while the Chanticleers had a 10-0 regular season record (lost in the bowl). Now CC goes from the “hunter” to “the hunted” and I wonder how they adjust. They were not favored by more than 17 in any game last season and were actually DOGS in 5 of their 12 games. 8* Kansas

8* Florida State (7:30 ET): Notre Dame is coming off another run to the College Football Playoff. As per usual, they ended up being embarrassed, albeit not as bad as usual. The Fighting Irish’s season ended with a 31-14 loss to Alabama on New Year’s Day, their second straight loss after a 10-0 start. Brian Kelly’s team opens this season ranked in the top 10, but my guess is that the Irish aren’t going to be nearly as good in 2021 as they have a very inexperienced offense and most factors are pointing down. 

Last season was not normal for any team, but COVID-19 really hit Florida State’s ranks hard and the end result was a very disappointing first year under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles finished just 3-6 and had nearly a month with no games due to COVID. Their only wins over FBS opponents came against North Carolina (by three) and Duke (season finale). But with a full offseason to properly prepare, Norvell should have the ‘Noles back to respectability in 2021. I think tonight’s opener is a classic case of an unranked home team being undervalued against a Top 25 opponent. 

All eyes will be on the QB position in this game. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is set to start for ND. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line with four new starters though, so expect some growing pains. Florida State has not yet announced who its starting QB will be, but it could be McKenzie Milton, a former UCF standout who suffered a terrible injury back in 2018. If not, it will be Jordan Travis. Either way, I look for FSU to put some points on the board in this matchup. Offense was Norvell’s “bread and butter” at previous stops. The defense can only get better as well. Look for the underdog to surprise here. Take the points. 8* Florida State

8* Washington State (11:00 ET): Utah State had an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season. The Aggies sank to a 1-5 record and fired HC Gary Anderson after an 0-3 start. It wasn't just a bad record though. USU was just plain BAD as all five losses were by 19 points or greater. In the COVID shortened season, oddsmakers struggled to adjust to just how bad the Aggies had become. They also finished 1-5 ATS. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State to try and right the ship in Logan. But I still think the Aggies are pretty bad. Lay the points in this one. 

Washington State played only four games in 2020 and finished just 1-3. Running back Max Borghi, who was a preseason nominee for the Doak Walker Award (best RB), played in only one game. The Cougars’ three losses were to Oregon, USC and Utah, obviously three of the Pac 12’s better teams. They’ve got 15 returning starters and should be improved. I’ve got them finishing third in the Pac 12 North behind Washington and Oregon.

Both coaches are being coy about their starting quarterbacks for the opener. For Wazzu it will be either incumbent Jayden de Laura or Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano. For Utah State, it will be either Andrew Peasley or Logan Bonner. What we do know is that the home team’s offense will be better. It’s all about the defense hopefully being better, especially against the pass. This one being in Pullman definitely helps Wazzu. Utah State is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog the previous two seasons. 8* Washington State

8* UCLA (8:30 ET): The Bruins treated me so well last week that I had to come crawling back to Chip Kelly again. Now LSU is obviously not going to be a pushover like Hawaii was. The Bruins raced out a huge 24-3 lead after the 1Q and never had to look back against the Warriors. RB Zach Charbonnet ran for three touchdowns in the win, which saw Kelly take his foot off the pedal in the second half. But if you recall, LSU’s run defense was quite bad a year ago during a very disappointing 5-5 SU season.

The fact that the Bruins so thoroughly dominated Hawaii, despite not getting a great game from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I think is a good sign. Crazy as it may sound, I expect DTR to have a much better game against LSU. I think it’s a big advantage that UCLA has played a game while LSU hasn’t. LSU is breaking in new coordinators for both sides of the ball. The Bruins’ offense averaged 35 PPG in 2020 with DTR at the helm. I wouldn’t be at all worried about last week’s 50% completion rate.

In last week’s analysis I talked about how UCLA’s four losses last year came by a total of 15 points. They were certainly better than their WL record. Most starters are back. The defense looks improved, which is all that is needed after the team was somehow 0-4 SU LY in games where the offense scored 34 or more points. Kelly’s offense went three-and-out at the 18th lowest rate in the country last season. We all know it was a down year for LSU, but they were lucky to even go 5-5 SU as they won their final two games despite QB Max Johnson completing only 55% of his passes vs. Ole Miss and Florida. The Tigers were 3-1 SU in one-score games as well. Their practice week was disrupted by Hurricane Irma, forcing them to practice in Houston before heading to the West Coast. I’m taking the points. 8* UCLA

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): The post-Frank Solich era begins in Athens Saturday night as the Bobcats host Syracuse of the ACC. It’ll be the first ACC school to ever visit Peden Stadium. So this is a big opportunity right out of the gate for new HC Tim Albin, who takes over from Solich after serving as his OC the L16 seasons. It was a very abbreviated final season for Solich as OU played only three games. They won twice and suffered a three-point loss at Central Michigan. Again, expect them to be one of the better MAC teams in 2021, despite the abrupt coaching change. 

Syracuse is not one of the better ACC teams, obviously. They were 1-10 SU a year ago, the lone win coming against Georgia Tech. Eight of their losses were by double digits. So it immediately caught my eye to see a team like this favored on the road, even if it’s ever so slightly. In my view, oddsmakers are overrating the coaching change at Ohio. I’d have them favored on a neutral field over Syracuse. So getting them at home, where they will be more of an advantage compared to last year, makes the Bobcats a must play. 

Ohio has been pretty strong at home the last few seasons. In Solich’s first ever home game, they beat Pitt, the program’s last win over an ACC opponent (2005). What a story if Albin replicates the achievement. Both teams plan to play multiple QBs Saturday night, but I like Ohio’s options better. Syracuse had terrible QB play a season ago and it’s the same arms that they are relying on this season. The Orange defense allowed 30+ points eight times in 2020 as they struggled to learn a new alignment. I just don’t think there’s much reason to expect Syracuse to be that improved for Dino Babers. 10* Ohio