10* Kansas (9:20 ET): Ok. As previously noted, only one of the previous 20 NCAAB National Champions (2014 UConn) didn’t rank in the top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. The Jayhawks are the team that fits the bill here in 2022 as they are sixth in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. So if the trend holds, then Bill Self will bring another title to Lawrence. North Carolina has been a tremendous story, ending Coach K’s run on Saturday, but they were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament and 39th in defensive efficiency. I’m laying the points Monday night. 

Though their lead was cut to six in the second half, I never sensed Kansas was in any real danger Saturday night against Villanova. They raced out to a 10-0 lead to start the game and were up 38-19 before halftime. While ‘Nova was without Justin Moore, beating them wire to wire is a real feather in the cap for the Jayhawks, who have been incredible defensively in this tournament, holding all five opponents below 40% shooting. Only Villanova shot better than 36% from the floor. 

I mentioned earlier that KU got to face Villanova without Justin Moore. Here they’ll get UNC with a hobbled Armando Bacot. Bacot is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer and rebounder. He’s third in the country in rebounding. Hubert Davis doesn’t have a lot of depth down low, so an injured Bacot is certainly ill-timed. He’s going to play, but won’t be 100 percent and was clearly bothered by the injured ankle in the second half vs. Duke. It honestly shocks me that UNC has made it thus far and they easily could have lost three of their last four games. Kansas has been the better team all season and it would be downright stunning to me if they didn’t win here. 10* Kansas

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (8:49 ET): Think this game might have some interest? Improbably, in the midst of Coach K’s final run, we’ve got a Duke-North Carolina National Semifinal. This is a rematch from the regular season finale, also Coach K’s final ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Tar Heels came in and ruined the party with a 94-81 upset (as 11-point underdogs!). I made a “wrong call” with the Under that night. (Total was 153). For the sixth straight time, a Duke-UNC meeting went Over the total. But, perhaps stubbornly, I feel this one will be different. I cashed a Duke Under in Round 1. That’s the play here. 

Duke has been the exception to the “Tournament rule” to this point. The Under went 10-1-1 last weekend in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Blue Devils’ 78-73 win over Texas Tech was the lone Over. Their 78-69 win over Arkansas was the push. The Over is now 8-1-1 in Duke’s L10 games. But again, given the shooting we’ve seen in this tournament so far, can the Blue Devils really continue to be immune from an “off-shooting” night? This is the highest O/U line for any Duke tournament game thus far and three of the previous four would have stayed Under. Shooting in the cavernous Superdome (New Orleans) could be a problem - for both teams. 

Carolina did allow 80 in regulation to Baylor in Round 2. But other than that, they have not allowed more than 66 in any other game. Three of the four opponents have shot 25% or worse from three-point range. The Tar Heels have not shot all that well themselves in the last two games, both of which stayed Under. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

10* Over Villanova/Kansas (6:09 ET): So Villanova’s last three games have all gone Under. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, the number of total points scored in games involving the Wildcats has steadily decreased (140-132-118-94). So has Nova’s three point shooting (46.4%-34.8%-30.0%-23.8%). Though their Final Four opponent is holding teams below 35% overall shooting for the Tournament, I believe Nova’s shooting and the number of total points per game here are due to INCREASE. For the season, Jay Wright’s team averages 71.9 PPG. This team (and this Tournament) is due for an uptick in scoring. 

When it comes to the expectation of how Kansas will shoot the basketball on Saturday, I have the same view as I do for Villanova. The Jayhawks have already scored 76+ points in three of their four tourney wins, so I really have less of a concern about their offense. I know that Villanova’s last two opponents have shot 34.4% and 29.8% respectively. But can the Wildcats REALLY count on such putrid three-point shooting from their opponents again? Houston missed 19 of 20 3PA against them in the Elite 8! Kansas averages 78.3 PPG for the season and is #7 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Villanova is not far behind, ranking 9th nationally in offensive efficiency. Their three-point shooting, like I said earlier, HAS to get better on Saturday. At the same time, Kansas can’t count on the sort of good fortune they’ve had from the last two opponents putting up bricks. Providence and Miami missed 37 of 44 three-point tries, a stunning bit of futility. This is the lowest O/U line of the tournament for Kansas. Three regular season totals were lower and all either went Over or pushed. I think we’ll see MUCH better shot making in this particular Final Four matchup. 10* Over Villanova/Kansas

10* Over Fresno St/Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): Lacking in the pageantry of tomorrow’s Final Four, or even last night’s NIT Final, we’ve got the Championship Game in the inaugural “Basketball Classic” on tap tonight. Fresno State has beaten Eastern Washington, Youngstown State and Southern Utah to get here. That’s a real “rogue’s gallery” of opponents and all three wins were at home. While still favored, the Bulldogs now have to hit the road to face a Coastal Carolina team that’s beaten MD-Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast and South Alabama in this tournament. The Chanticleers’ last win was as close as it gets as they won at South Alabama, in overtime, on a three-pointer with one second remaining. 

Both these teams have solid defensive numbers. Coastal Carolina gives up only 62.2 PPG at home this season and held South Alabama to 60 in regulation on Monday. But this team can score as well. They average 76.7 PPG at home and this one is in Conway where we last saw them put up 84 on Florida Gulf Coast. This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any CC game all season, home or road. 

Fresno State is actually top four in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.9 PPG. But they give up slightly more per game on the road. Though they ended up scoring “only” 67 pts in the semifinal win against Southern Utah, the Bulldogs did shoot 50% overall from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. In the first two games of this tournament, they scored 80 and 83 points. I don’t think that FSU is going to be able to hold Coastal Carolina to the kind of numbers we saw against Southern Utah, who shot just 31.1% overall and 4 of 20 from three-point range. This is the lowest O/U of the tournament for FSU. 10* Over Fresno State/Coastal Carolina

10* Under Washington St/Texas A&M (9:30 ET): So I’ve had success so far playing Washington State games in the NIT. I took the Under when they beat Santa Clara 63-50 in the opening round, which was quite the defensive performance by Wazzu as they held the Broncos to 26.5 points below their season average. Then came a 75-63 win at SMU, a tough place to play at. Last Wednesday, I was back on the Under train with Wazzu as they beat another WCC team (BYU), 77-58 as a 2.5-point underdog. Pretty clearly, the Cougars have been “locked in” defensively in the NIT, giving up just 57 PPG! 

Texas A&M, who many felt was “snubbed” by the NCAA Tournament, has also seen the Under hit in all three NIT games. The Under has actually hit four straight times for the Aggies, going back to the SEC Tournament Final vs. Tennessee. The difference between them and Wazzu is that all of A&M’s NIT games (previous to this) were played at home. The Aggies have held Alcorn State, Oregon and Wake Forest to an average of 58 PPG, basically right on par with Wazzu. Not overly concerned with A&M’s transition away from College Station as they held Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee all to 65 points or fewer in the SEC Tournament. 

Look for the Under to hit again in this NIT semifinal battle. Washington State is allowing under 20% shooting from behind the three-point line in this tournament, which is just incredible. Texas A&M is not particularly adept at three-point shooting as is evident by the fact they’re down around 25% for the tournament. On the flip side, Washington State isn’t a great shooting team either; they’re hitting just over 40% overall from the field this season and A&M also happens to defend the three-point line well. Both teams play slow and are top 32 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Wash St/Texas A&M

10* Over Miami FL/Kansas (2:20 ET): Well, Kansas is certainly the team we expected to be here. The Jayhawks are the only remaining 1-seed in the Tournament after both Gonzaga and Arizona met their demise in the Sweet 16. KU was able to outlast Providence on Friday, winning 66-61. But for the second straight time they did not cover. Against Creighton, Bill Self’s team won 79-72 as a 12.5-point favorite. They closed as 6.5-point favorites against Providence. Here they’ll find themselves in a similar price range against an unlikely upstart, that being 10-seed Miami. 

Honestly, I expected that “The U” would lose in the first round to USC. Boy have the Hurricanes proven me wrong. They beat the Trojans 68-66, holding on after taking a double digit lead in the 1H. Then came a shocking upset of 2-seed Auburn, 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs, thanks to a 2H surge. In the Sweet 16, the Canes were short favorites in an unlikely matchup with Iowa State and controlled from start to finish in a 70-56 win and cover. The team is now 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament and also 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a neutral site underdog. They’ll relish the role they are in on Sunday. 

Over their last six games, Kansas has alternated Overs and Unders. I had the Over in the matchup with Creighton, which ended up 79-72. Shooting was not good - for either side - when the Jayhawks faced Providence. The teams combined to shoot 36.2% overall, including an unsightly 6 of 38 from three-point range. I expect better overall shooting in this game and Kansas probably can’t maintain its current tournament average where opponents are shooting just 34% against them. Similarly, Miami’s last two opponents have shot a woeful 9 of 48 from three-point range! Iowa State attempted only FOUR free throws the entire game, a number Kansas will crush. 10* Over Miami FL/Kansas

10* Over Houston/Villanova (6:09 ET): These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the entire country. Both are in the bottom in adjusted tempo per KenPom. So it makes sense that we have a low total for the South Regional Final between Houston and Villanova. But might it be too low? I think so. Houston has had only five games with a lower total, all January 5th or earlier. The last three all went Over. One of the two that didn’t came against Virginia, who plays at an even slower tempo than Villanova. As for ‘Nova, they’ve had only ONE game all year with an O/U line lower than 128. It pushed as they only gave up 42 points. The Wildcats will not hold Houston to 42 points here. 

Villanova has seen its own overall shooting percentage decline with each passing game in this tournament. They shot 50.9% vs. Delaware, then 44.2% vs. Ohio State and finally 37.3% vs. Michigan. Total points have declined from 80 to 71 to 63 as has three point shooting 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0%. Do we really expect offensive numbers to decline across the board for a fourth consecutive game? It hasn’t happened all year. The average number of total points scored in Villanova games this season is 135.2. I believe the Wildcats can score at least 64 here. 

While Villanova’s overall FG% defense has improved with each passing game, teams are hitting better from three, peaking with Michigan’s 34.4% on Thursday. That’s good news for a Houston team that has made over 45% of its threes in two of three tourney games so far. The Cougars are averaging 74 PPG in the tournament. In the last 13 games, the fewest points scored by UH is 61. In the other 12, they scored at least 69. Their average number of total points per game scored this season is 134.7. Looking at the numbers, I simply feel that the value is on the Over here. 10* Over Houston/Villanova 

9* Iowa State (9:59 ET): Everyone seems to really love Miami in this unlikely Sweet 16 matchup, which pits the 10 and 11 seeds of the Midwest Region against one another. I’m not sure why? The gap in defensive efficiency, a very important metric this time of year, is the largest of any Sweet 16 matchup. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in that regard while Miami is 124th, easily the worst of any of the remaining teams and it’s not particularly close. (Purdue is next lowest at 87th). I actually think that the WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED in this contest and thus I’m grabbing the points. 

Here’s something noteworthy. Iowa State has not lost a single non-conference game all season! The Cyclones are 15-0 when faced with a team outside the Big 12. I’ve been somewhat skeptical as my power rankings see a team that went 2-22 SU (0-18 in Big 12 play!) last year. But ISU certainly proved me wrong with their win over Wisconsin in Round 2. The bottom line is that the ‘Clones have allowed just 103 points in two games in this tournament with opponents hitting just 6 of 41 (14.6%!) from three-point range. You could argue that’s not sustainable, but so far Miami is just 4 of 29 (13.7%!) from three-point range in the tournament. 

So look for Iowa State’s defense to win out here. At the same time, I expect their offensive numbers to improve against a Miami team that is suspect defensively. The Hurricanes were fortunate to get out to a double digit lead in the 1H vs. USC in Round 1 as they held on for a two-point win. Then, they shockingly exploded in the 2H against Auburn in Round 2. Auburn shot very poorly in that game (just 30%) and while Iowa State certainly isn’t going to go for 80 points here, they will shoot better than Auburn did. I am just a big “seller” on this Miami team, who I think is the weakest team (besides St. Peter’s) left in the field. 9* Iowa State

10* UCLA (9:39 ET): Coming off an impressive upset of top-seeded Baylor in Round 2, North Carolina now seems to be accumulating quite the bandwagon as they head to the Sweet 16. But it’s hard for me to shake the fact that this Tar Heels team ended up as the three seed in a weak ACC this year. They were beaten by Virginia Tech in the Conference Tournament, then blew all of a 25-point lead (in 10 minutes!) against Baylor, needing OT to pull that upset off. The hot shooting we’ve seen from UNC these first two rounds is NOT likely to persist and I certainly don’t believe UCLA is going to shoot as poorly as Baylor did on Saturday. 

Meanwhile, UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. I look at this East Region and see a pretty clear path to the Final Four for UCLA, who is one of just four teams left that ranks in the Top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. Why is that important? Because all but one of the last 20 National Champions (2014 UConn) have been Top 25 teams in both categories. I think the Bruins are being drastically undervalued for this Sweet 16 matchup. 

Now Jaime Jaquez Jr, who is UCLA’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered last game. And North Carolina’s near choke-job vs. Baylor certainly coincided with the ejection of Brady Manek, who WILL play Friday. But I am steadfast in my assessment of the two teams. UCLA has been better all season and should be favored by more. Don’t be surprised if it’s the defense that gets it done here for the Bruins, who are 7-1 ATS their L8 NCAA Tournament games. 10* UCLA

8* Under North Carolina/UCLA (9:39 ET): UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. This Bruins team is 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and thus I believe they are capable of doing what neither Marquette or Baylor could do and that’s slow down this North Carolina offense. Going back to February 12th, only one team has been able to score more than 68 against UCLA and that was Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. 

At the same time, I can’t see UCLA shooting as well as they did in the last round (when they made 56.5% of their field goal attempts). North Carolina has surprisingly held its first two tourney opponents to 35% overall shooting. They held Marquette to just 63 points in the first round. The second round saw the Tar Heels hold Baylor to just 29 first half points. But then came the big ejection of Brady Manek, which led to UNC blowing a 25-point lead (in the final 10 minutes of regulation) amidst a massive defensive breakdown. With Manek back in the lineup, we won’t see another defensive breakdown like that. 

UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez sprained his ankle against St. Mary’s and thus is questionable to play Friday. I think the Bruins can survive without him, but potentially being without your second leading scorer and top rebounder is tough. This is a much higher O/U line than usual for the Bruins. Note the O/U lines for the first two tourney games were 128 and 126! This is just the third total north of 140 for UCLA since Feb 3rd. Remember that North Carolina was held to an average of just 61 PPG in two ACC Tourney games. They won’t score anywhere close to what they did in the first two rounds of this tournament. 8* Under North Carolina/UCLA

**Note: Michigan PG Jones still listed as questionable as of press time. I think the Wolverines are due for a downturn offensively, regardless of what Jones' status ends up being. If he plays, there could be some "rust." 

10* Under Michigan/Villanova (7:27 ET): Through two games in this tournament, Michigan has shot 52% from the floor and averaged 75.5 PPG. They beat Colorado State by 12 (despite trailing by seven at the half) and then stunned Tennessee 76-68, again overcoming a halftime deficit. It would definitely be a surprise if they could win again, but stranger things have happened in March. I did cash the Wolverines in the first round and they are clearly a team that was better than their regular season record. But this game against Villanova promises to be a grind. 

Second seeded Villanova has handled its business against Delaware and Ohio State, winning those two games by a combined 30 points. As expected, it was not very difficult to oust the Fighting Blue Hens as a 35-10 run put that game away. ‘Nova held Delaware to 3 of 20 from three-point range. Then, against Ohio State, the Wildcats raced out to a sizable early advantage before holding on for a 71-61 win. While Michigan has 14 losses on the year, Villanova has lost only one time since Feb 5 and that was by only two points. 

I think a big key when betting the total here is noting that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of College Basketball. They are 345th in pace. This is a strong defensive team, one that averages just 62.9 PPG allowed. Michigan is due for a downturn in shooting and ‘Nova is allowing a FG% of just 40.9 for the year. They also allow teams to shoot only 30.6% from three-point range. We’ve also seen Michigan put the clamps down defensively, holding CSU and Tennessee to just 27 and 31 pts in the 2H, respectively. Tennessee didn’t make a single three-pointer in the 2H on Saturday. 10* Under Michigan/Villanova

8* Under Washington State/BYU (9:00 ET): I think these might be the two of the top three teams left in the NIT. Coming into the Tournament, Oklahoma was the highest rated in my power rankings, but the Sooners are out. That leaves Wake Forest as the highest one left, then these two. In fact, the four highest rated teams remaining are all on one side of the bracket with Wake, A&M and these two. Enough of that though. I had success with a previous Washington State Under and that’s the way I’m playing tonight’s quarterfinal at BYU as this is a very solid team defensively. 

Now stopping Brigham Young may seem like a challenge. The Cougars have scored 90+ points in their first two NIT games, beating Long Beach State and Northern Iowa. But neither of those teams are as solid as Wazzu at the defensive end. Note that when I last played the Under with Wazzu, they were facing another WCC team (Santa Clara) that came in averaging 76.5 PPG. The Broncos had scored 89 or more in three of their last four games, but were held to just 50 points (on 30.0% shooting) by Washington State. Wazzu is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and kept SMU to 63 in the second round, including 20 in the 1H, on the road. 

But Washington State also has shot just under 35% from the field in this tournament. They were 6 of 24 from three-point range vs. SMU. BYU is also pretty staunch at the defensive end, especially here in Provo where they allow just 63.9 PPG. Visiting teams are hitting just 29.4% from three-point range here. In sum, you cannot expect BYU to shoot the ball as well as they have in the first two NIT games. But their own defensive prowess will keep them in this one, a battle of Cougars which looks to stay Under the total. 8* Under Washington State/BYU

10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier (9:00 ET): Xavier is probably no worse than the Marquette team that got slaughtered (by North Carolina) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with an 18-13 SU regular season record, the Musketeers were simply not going to get into the Big Dance, particularly after losing six of their last seven games. So they had to settle on the NIT and that’s gone well with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State and 72-56 win over Florida. Another SEC team comes to campus for Tuesday’s quarterfinals, that being Vanderbilt, who has beaten Belmont (82-71) and Dayton (70-68) thus far. 

This will be the first time Vandy has had to leave home in the NIT. Their first two games were both in Nashville. Now they’ll try and make it an “Ohio double” after beating Dayton (in overtime) last time out. The Commodores have fared quite well at the betting window down the stretch; covering 11 of their last 15 games. They just missed out against Dayton as three point favorites. As underdogs, the Commies have covered five straight times. But it’s another streak that I’m looking at here, them having produced four straight Overs. Away from home, I don’t see this team shooting all that well. Also, that last game (vs. Dayton) would NOT have gone Over without OT. 

Vandy isn’t a great shooting team to begin with. Their FG% for the season is only 42.4. I look at the L5 games and see a team that has been scoring well above their season average (78.2 PPG). For the year, the Commodores are averaging just 70.7 PPG. Xavier allows just 64.8 PPG at home and has held its previous two NIT opponents to only 62 PPG. What will keep Vandy in this one though is the fact they are 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 30% shooting from three-point land. Xavier is actually better than that (at home), allowing just 29.4%. Neither team is great at the FT line either. Xavier’s second leading scorer (PG Scruggs) is questionable after leaving the last game with a knee injury. 10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier

10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama (8:00 ET): So this is “The Basketball Classic,” a new tournament for this year that replaced the CIT. Honestly, it feels like the organizers are kind of “making the rules up as they go along here” as you’ve got one team (Portland) already with a bye into the quarterfinals and four second round matchups, so we’re going to be left with five teams and I don’t really understand how that’s going to be resolved! What I do know is that this matchup between USC Upstate and South Alabama should feature plenty of points. 

USC Upstate, who finished with the fourth best record in the Big South this year, hung 80 in a first round upset at Appalachian State last Tuesday. Despite being 10.5-point underdogs, the Spartans led most of the game, although they did blow all of a 12-point lead in the second half. It ended up being their highest scoring game since 2/2, but USC Upstate has now scored 70 or more points in five of its last six games and that’s all we probably need from them tonight. 

South Alabama grinded out a 70-68 win over SE Louisiana in the first round. The Jaguars did not cover the nine-point spread in that game as they blew a 17-point 2H lead. The last five games have seen USA score well below their season average of 71.3 PPG, so I expect them to get on track offensively here against an opponent that ranks outside of the top 300 in defensive efficiency. At home, the Jaguars average 75.4 PPG and that’s the exact number USC Upstate is allowing per game on the road. 10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama

8* Under Miami/Auburn (7:45 ET): I have no unearthly idea how Miami was able to defeat USC in the first round. The Hurricanes were outshot, 48.0% to 42.9%, and made only ONE three-point shot (on 17 attempts) for the game. But they did enjoy a +10 advantage in FT attempts and that, coupled with a fast start, allowed them to hold on for the 68-66 upset as two-point underdogs. I would not at all be surprised to see the ‘Canes get run out of the gym by Auburn on Sunday, but the better play (in my view) is on the Under here. 

Auburn didn’t have any difficulty disposing of Jacksonville State on Friday. That was an 80-61 victory as 14.5-point underdogs. In retrospect, that was a shockingly low number for a 2-15 matchup, especially considering Jacksonville State did NOT win its conference tournament. Auburn allowed just 31.1% in that game. Incredibly, only TWO teams have shot better than 45% this season against the Tigers. Those were UConn (49.3%) on 11/24 and Kentucky (50%) on 1/22. Given Miami’s own offensive struggles on Friday, I’m not worried about them shooting the lights out here. 

Auburn has scored 80 or more in three of its last four games, but those efforts were all against overmatched opponents; a 15-seed and two non-tourney teams. Miami’s defensive efficiency numbers are not great, but I think they can keep the Tigers in relative check here. Jaylin Williams and Walker Kessler ran into each other against Jacksonville State, getting banged up in the process. Bruce Pearl expects to have both Sunday, but don’t discount the injuries. 8* Under Miami/Auburn

10* Wisconsin (6:10 ET): The Badgers have thrived in close games this season, so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see them “turn it on” late against 14-seed Colgate Friday night. Trailing most of the game, Wisconsin went on a 10-0 run to take the lead for good and held the Raiders scoreless for over seven minutes. The favorite ended up not covering (won 67-60, were -7.5), but I’m going to lay the points here as I think the Badgers got a favorable second round draw with an Iowa State team that I’ve not been sold on all season. Lay the points. 

Iowa State shot just 35.7% in the first round, but it was enough to pull the upset over LSU, 59-54 as 3.5-point dogs. Remember that the Tigers had just fired their HC, the day before Selection Sunday. So the Cyclones really got lucky with the draw. The turnaround in Ames has been pretty remarkable this season, considering that last year the Cyclones finished 2-22 SU overall and didn’t win a single Big 12 game! They started 2021-22 by winning their first 12 games, but are only 9-12 SU since (including Friday’s win) and had dropped three in a row coming into the NCAA Tournament. Most concerning is the lack of offense; ISU has been held below 60 pts in three of its last four games. 

Wisconsin commits the fewest number of turnovers per game (8.5) in the nation and gave it away only five times against Colgate. So this team does not beat itself. Like Iowa State, the Badgers have been a surprise team this season (were picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten), but that’s all water in the bridge. I know I’ve pointed to an unsustainable record in close games, but this is a game Wisconsin should win big. I just don’t think ISU is very good. Over the last four games, the Cyclones were held to 36 points by OK State and 41 by Tex Tech! Wisconsin will certainly make more threes than LSU did (only four) here. 10* Wisconsin

10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas (8:40 ET): New Mexico State made me look foolish in Round 1, upsetting UConn 70-63, thus continuing the 12 vs. 5 seed trend. It was Aggies’ first NCAA Tournament win since the early 90s. Now they’ll meet an Arkansas team that outlasted an upset bid from upstart Vermont. The Razorbacks won 75-71 on Thursday, but did not cover the spread. That was a game where scoring really picked up in the 2H (85 pts) after a relatively low-scoring first half (61 points). As someone who had the Under in that Arkansas-Vermont matchup, I was quite sad. So both of these teams “owe me” one on Saturday. 

Arkansas’ last seven games have all gone Over. That’s the longest O/U streak of any team left in the tournament. This is a top 20 team in the country in defensive efficiency and I expect the Razorbacks to advance here. Look for them to do it with defense. NMSU isn’t anywhere near as prolific as Vermont when it comes to shooting the basketball. Now the Aggies did shoot a ridiculous 64.7% from three-point range (11 of 17) against UConn, but that is a number they certainly will not be repeating here. For the year, they’re at just 33.5% from behind the arc. 

Arkansas has its own issues shooting from long distance as they are just 30.9% for the season. So NMSU may be able to stick around because of that. The Aggies did just hold UConn to only 63 points. It’s interesting that both teams’ games were VERY low-scoring in the first half, yet still went Over. Don’t see that happening here. Arkansas held Vermont to 27 points in the 1H while NMSU held UConn to 22. Look for the underdog to try and slow the pace and limit possessions. Only two of the Aggies’ last seven games would have made it Over this total. Teddy Allen will NOT score 37 again here like he did vs. UConn. Keep in mind the rest of the team made just 13 field goals and attempted ZERO free throws. 10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas

8* Over Creighton/Kansas (2:45 ET): Creighton was really lucky to advance over San Diego State, as the Bluejays scored the final nine points of regulation and the Aztecs missed a free throw that would have clinched the game. However, the 72-69 OT win wasn’t all good fortune for Creighton as starting big man Ryan Kalkbrenner hurt his knee and he won’t be back. That means the Bluejays are now without two of their top three players as Ryan Nembhard, the Big East Freshman of the Year, was already lost to injury. However, led by another freshman (Trey Alexander), I still expect Creighton to put a decent number of points on the board Saturday against Kansas. 

The top-seeded Jayhawks breezed through their first round game, as expected, beating Texas Southern 83-56 with an effective FG% of 58.0. Kansas is one of the top offensive teams in the country, has shot 50% or better from the field in three of its last four games and averages 78.7 PPG. They are #5 in the country in offensive efficiency. With Kalkbrenner out for Creighton, expect KU’s David McCormack to have a “field day” on the inside here. Also, expect Big XII Player of the Year Ochai Agbagi to have a more productive game than he did Thursday when he finished with only 11 points. 

With Creighton may be a bit short-handed coming into the second round, I do expect they will dramatically improve upon their three-point shooting from the first round, which was a woeful 14.3%. Over their L2 games, the Blue Jays have hit only 5 of 43 3PA, which is just insane. I know that even with OT, they managed just 72 pts on Thursday. But San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the entire country. Kansas is not nearly as stout and will find Creighton much more difficult to defend than Texas Southern was. 8* Over Creighton/Kansas

10* CS Fullerton (7:10 ET): Duke has been a complete mess defensively of late. Over the last four games, the Blue Devils have surrendered an average of 82.8 points per game and rank 224th in defensive efficiency. So I’ll gladly grab the big number here with Cal State Fullerton, who won the Big West Tournament to get here. The Titans have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. Obviously, that’s against weaker competition than they’ll see here. But I still see the 15-seed staying inside the number. 

Duke comes into the Tournament on an 0-4 ATS losing skid. They dropped Coach K’s home finale, losing to rival North Carolina 94-81. Then it was two close wins in the ACC Tournament over Syracuse and Miami. They lost in the Finals, to Virginia Tech, 82-67 as a 5.5-point favorite. I would have expected the ATS losing skid to scare the public off here, but it has not and, in fact, the line has only gotten bigger. I think because of the name on the front of the jersey, this team is overvalued right now. The Blue Devils are young and inexperienced. 

An outright upset seems unlikely here, although we did see a 15-seed (St. Peter’s) win yesterday. But CS Fullerton has dropped only two games over the last month and those two losses were by a combined eight points. The Titans are a very solid 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season and should come in “loose” as they are essentially playing with “house money” here. Duke’s lack of defense down the stretch makes them a prime candidate to fade as a big favorite. 10* CS-Fullerton

8* Under CS-Fullerton/Duke (7:10 ET): While the Duke defense has been a complete mess lately, giving up an average of 82.8 points over the last four games and ranking 224th nationally in efficiency, I don’t see the Blue Devils giving up a ton of points to Cal State Fullerton in this first round matchup. CS Fullerton doesn’t take a ton of threes, so the Titans’ best bet is to keep this one low-scoring. I think they will and the fact Duke’s last games have all gone Over has this number too high. Take the Under. 

It;s obviously against inferior Big West competition, but the last five games have seen Cal State Fullerton hold its opponents to 39.9% shooting from the floor. In the first two Big West Tourney games, they held opponents to 55 and 46 points. In the Final, they upset top seeded Long Beach State 72-71, thanks to their own hot shooting as they made 52% overall from the field, including 11 of 20 from three-point range. Though I expect them to cover here, I can’t see the Titans matching those percentages against Duke. 

This is a pretty high total for both teams. CS Fullerton is 16-5 Under its last 21 non-conference games. For the season, their games only average 136.5 PPG total. They’ve had just ONE O/U line north of 145.0 all season and that was in the very first game. The Under is 4-0 the last four times that the Titans have been underdogs. Duke has shot below 25% from three-point range in its last two games and the O/U line for the ACC Tournament Final against Virginia Tech was much lower than this one. 8* Under CS-Fullerton-Duke

8* Texas (4:30 ET): I think we’re getting a GREAT discount on Texas here as this line looks like it might “jump the fence.” I assume the public infatuation has to do with Va Tech winning the ACC Tournament. Now I very much thought the Hokies were capable of making a run in that event, but mainly that was because the ACC was so “down” this season. And the Hokies only finished SEVENTH in that league. Conversely, Texas made an early exit in the Big 12 Tourney, losing in the quarterfinals to TCU. But the Longhorns are still sixth in the country in points allowed (59.6 per game) and have a big edge at that end of the floor. 

I understand that Texas comes into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak where they’ve not topped 63 in any game. But two of those defeats came to Baylor and Kansas (both 1-seeds) and they had an 18-point lead over TCU in the Big 12 Tourney. All but two of this team’s losses this season came to ranked foes. Va Tech is unranked. Teams are shooting just 41.2% against the Longhorns, so I just don’t see the Hokies hitting at the same rate they did against the weak defenses of the ACC. The Horns have had just one losing streak longer than three games in the L3 seasons. 

Let’s also not forget Va Tech was just 19-12 SU before winning four games in four days to clinch their spot here. One of those wins in came in overtime and required a buzzer beater. I did think - that like Texas - the Hokies were being underrated much of the year. But Texas was a preseason top five team. I think this is a classic case of “recency bias” as too many people are focused on Va Tech’s ACC Tourney run and not the big picture. Teams that are only in the field due to winning the automatic berth from their conference are good first round fades, in my opinion. 8* Texas

8* Loyola Chicago (12:15 ET): So, as many of you already know, I rely heavily on a team’s defensive efficiency rating this time of year. Well, in this matchup of Loyola Chicago and Ohio State, my side looks to have a major edge in that regard. Champions of the Missouri Valley, Loyola is #22 in the country in defensive efficiency. Ohio State is #130, easily the worst rating of anyone in the KenPom top 40. Look for the Ramblers to exploit this edge and move on to the Round of 32. 

Ohio State was upset LY in the first round of the tourney, as a 2-seed, losing 75-72 to Oral Roberts. That Buckeyes team was better than this edition, but still only rated 82nd in defensive efficiency. Now the problem seems to be even worse. Last year’s upset loss was also nothing new for Chris Holtmann. His teams are now just 11-17 SU all-time in Conference/NCAA Tournaments. That includes an early exit from this year’s Big 10 proceedings, 71-68 to Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite. Also, don’t discount the fact the Buckeyes had to play seven games from 2/19 to 3/6 as a result of postponements. 

Loyola ended up being the four seed for the MVC Tournament, but that was highly misleading as an OT loss to Northern Iowa on the final day of the regular season dropped them from the top spot and they fell victim to a tiebreaker. The Ramblers were always the best team in “the Valley” this season and showed it in the Conference Tourney, including a whipping of N Iowa 66-43. In its last five games that ended in regulation, Loyola has allowed no more than 58 points. While offensively, they don’t score a ton, the Ramblers do shoot 56% from two-point range, top 25 in the country. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* San Francisco (9:50 ET): I think the line is moving in the wrong direction here, for this 7 vs 10 matchup. Yes, I know Murray State is 30-2 SU and hasn’t lost since December 22nd to Auburn. But San Francisco is the better team from the better conference with a higher defensive efficiency rating. The Dons stayed undefeated into December and one-third (3 of 9) of their losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga. Other than Gonzaga, not a single team beat SF by more than five points this year! Five of their losses were by two points or less! So I’m taking full advantage of this line move and grabbing the points. 

My own power ratings are simply not as high on Murray State as some others. I’ve got the Racers just outside my Top 50. I know that they probably would have been an at-large team had they not won the OVC Tournament and got the automatic bid. But that was a fairly weak league, outside of Belmont and Morehead State, neither of whom were in my Top 85. Murray State also really benefited from the fact they shot 157 more free throws than their opponents this season and attempted 149 more field goals. If they’re not getting to the line and not getting those second chance opportunities, then they could be in real trouble. 

San Francisco has a strong backcourt and is also likely getting back big man Yauhen Massalski (13.5 points, 9.4 rebounds per game), which is a big boost. The Dons have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, so they will be highly motivated here. Not that Murray State won’t be, but to me the Racers have the feel of being a bit “too trendy,” especially considering four of their last seven wins were by four points or fewer. Murray State lacks depth in the frontcourt and doesn’t shoot free throws well. San Francisco is outstanding at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit less than 30% from deep. 8* San Francisco

9* Under Vermont/Arkansas (9:20 ET): This promises to be a very popular upset pick as Vermont is a very legit team out of the America East. The Catamounts come into the NCAA Tournament on a real roll, having won eight straight. They hit 60% of their two-point FG attempts and 40% from three-point range in conference play. But I think many be selling Arkansas “short,” as the Razorbacks are a Top 16 team in the country in defensive efficiency and clearly better than any of the other teams from the America East. What I like here is the game to go Under the total as Vermont’s shots won’t be falling at the normal rate. 

Note that doesn’t mean the Catamounts can’t win here. Arkansas shoots just 30.8% from three-point range, so I hardly see them “running away with things.” Even when the Hogs ripped off 13 wins in 15 games, their three-point percentage didn’t go up much. In five of their last seven games, they shot BELOW their already poor season average from behind the arc. In 9 of 20 conference games, the Razorbacks averaged less than one point per possession. Vermont’s defense is not at all bad (just 60.3 PPG allowed), so again, I’m not looking for the favorite to score a ton here. 

Arkansas’ last six games all went Over the total, so I think we’re getting a good number here. Vermont has not lost in regulation since Dec 7, but again, you have to take into account the weak competition. Five of the Catamounts’ last six games stayed Under and the one that didn’t required a 98-point effort from them, the likes of which we clearly will not see here, against lowly NJIT. I do think this play comes down to Vermont’s defense, which has not allowed more than 61 points in a game since Valentine’s Day. Given Arkansas’ poor three-point shooting, they’ve got a shot. The Under is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six NCAA Tourney games. 9* Under Vermont/Arkansas

10* UConn (6:50 ET): We all know the history of the 5-12 (seed) matchup. In 31 of the last 36 Tournaments, at least one 12-seed has won a first round game. But only one did so last year and that team (Oregon State) came from a P5 conference. I just don’t see it here with New Mexico State and, in fact, I believe 5-seed UConn should be an even larger favorite here. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games and the two losses were by a combined five points. My own power ratings suggest this should be a double digit spread. So I’m laying the points.

UConn is a team with tremendous length, one that grabs the second highest percentage of its own misses in the country. Only Kentucky had a higher offensive rebound percentage. When 6’9” Adama Sanogo is on the floor, the Huskies rebound 39% of their misses and also make 39% of their 3PA. Sanogo missed the team’s lone meeting with Big East Champ Providence this year. I don’t think NMSU has any ability to match up with him and UConn’s massive edge in size and length is going to be a big problem for the underdog in this one. 

New Mexico State is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 under four different coaches. The problem is the Aggies have not won in the Big Dance since 1993. The WAC is a really weak league. Concerning for NMSU is their turnover rate (21%) as UConn is certainly better than most teams the Aggies have faced. I know NMSU hasn’t lost a game by more than four points since January, but again … the competition. They lost to a terrible Chicago State team. UConn is looking to end its own NCAA Tourney drought as their last win in the Big Dance came back in 2016 . Look for that to end here as the Huskies win BIG. 10* UConn

8* Marquette (4:30 ET): Once again, this is a matchup where I feel the public is “loading up” far too much on one side, given the respective seedings. Marquette did not have a particularly strong finish to its regular season, going 4-6 SU L10 and getting bounced from the Big East Tournament, 74-63 by Creighton. But I’m not all that impressed with North Carolina as the ACC was “down” significantly this season and the Tar Heels only finished third. They did go on a late season run, including a win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game. But that’s overvalued them a bit. They lost by 13 to Va Tech in the ACC Tourney.

Marquette had some close losses down the stretch and thus their SU record could be a lot better. The Golden Eagles have a higher defensive efficiency rating than UNC, something I look at this time of year. In fact, the Tar Heels are giving up a whopping 77.4 PPG outside of Chapel Hill. That simply will not get it done in an NCAA Tournament game, especially when favored. Marquette had the Big East’s most efficient offense inside the three-point arc, shooting 53.1% on 2PA, and they were also 37% from three-point range. Bottom line: I look for Marquette to SCORE in this matchup. 

I know that Marquette HC Shaka Smart didn’t win a NCAA Tournament game at Texas and his Golden Eagles were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Big East poll. But they might be better than UNC at BOTH ends of the floor. Defensively, no team in the Big East was better at defending the three-point line. Opponents made just 31.8% from behind the arc against the Golden Eagles. North Carolina is a team that often loses when it’s not making its threes (2-7 SU against Quad 1 teams). Also, Marquette led the Big East in steal rate. Let’s not forget UNC lost at home to Pitt last month. Marquette swept Villanova this year and beat Providence once. 8* Marquette

8* Boise State (1:45 ET): Memphis seems to be far too popular a choice here, given the seeding. I know the Tigers are a hot team, winners of 12 of their last 14, but they just got blown out in the AAC Title Game by Houston (71-53) and have to contend with a similarly hot Boise State squad. The Broncos, who will be supremely motivated by the fact the program has NEVER won a NCAA Tournament game (0-7 SU all-time), were regular season and conference tournament champions in the Mountain West. They’ve won 24 of their last 27 games and are an excellent team defensively. Take the points.

With a Top 20 defensive efficiency rating, Boise State allows just 60.8 PPG. They held Colorado State (also a NCAA Tournament team) to 52 in the MWC Tourney Final. Offensively, though they didn’t really show it in that win over CSU, the Broncos are also very good. They’ve shot 50% or better in six of the last nine games. While Memphis has improved defensively throughout the season, the Tigers still are allowing 68.4 PPG. Boise State has lost only three games since the start of February and two of those were by just three points each. 

Memphis also has a major albatross and that is they turn the ball over way too much; nearly one-quarter of their possessions to be exact. Though they did beat Houston twice down the stretch, the Tigers’ “resurgence” mostly came against bad AAC teams that didn’t make the Tournament. Houston is better than any team from the MWC, but overall I’d say the Mountain West was stronger than the American this season. Boise State is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year and I think the better team is getting points in this matchup. 8* Boise State

8* Michigan (12:15 ET): So both of these teams enter the NCAA Tournament with “chips” on their respective shoulders. Colorado State felt like it was snubbed from LY’s Tourney, so the Rams left little doubt in the minds of the committee this year with a 25-5 regular season. But it’s telling that - despite being ranked #24 in the country and the higher seed - CSU is still an underdog to a Michigan team that is just 17-14 SU and barely got in the field. I think it’s the Wolverines who are not only better, but have more to prove in this Round of 64 matchup. I’m laying the points. 

Don’t be fooled by Michigan’s record vis a vis Colorado State’s. The Wolverines played a much more challenging schedule, one that saw them play 15 “Quadrant 1” teams. KenPom has their schedule rated as the fifth toughest in the country. They successfully navigated their HC Juwan Howard being suspended, going 3-2, and should have beaten Indiana in the Big 10 Tournament (were up 17). Michigan is a team that, despite its record, is still considered Top 25 by my own personal power ratings. Let’s not forget they were in the Elite 8 a year ago. 

Colorado State not only played a weaker schedule (84th), but I thought they were a bit lucky this year (4th in luck rating at KenPom). The Rams also favor a significant matchup disadvantage here, going against MIchigan’s Hunter Dickinson, one of the best big men in America. The Rams are 304th (in the country) in average height and allowed Mountain West teams to connect at a 51% clip on two-point attempts in conference play. That’s not good. Offensively, they only averaged 55.5 points in two MWC Tourney games. Lay the points. 8* Michigan

10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers (9:10 ET): Notre Dame finished the regular season as the 2-seed in the ACC, but I thought it would have been pretty ludicrous to consider the Fighting Irish the second best team in that conference. My power ratings had four ACC teams rated higher, including Wake Forest, who didn’t even make the Big Dance. The Irish could only manage a 3-3 split in their last six games, but still made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in five years.

Rutgers had some nice upsets this season, including four straight wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, three of those four were in Piscataway and the Scarlet Knights simply aren’t the same team away from home that they are at the RAC. They have just four wins away from home all season and have dropped four of six overall. Rutgers was in the Tourney last year and made the Round of 32. Led by Ron Harper Jr, this is the first time the program has made B2B appearances in the Big Dance in 40 years. 

I think this one is set to be low-scoring and I am on the Under. I know that the Over is 7-0-1 in ND’s last eight games, but they are facing a Rutgers team that is 43rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That’s significant because no ACC teams rank higher than that. On the flip side, Rutgers only shoots 33.6% from three-point range and that’s not going to cut it. Before losing to Iowa in the Big 10 Tournament, the Scarlet Knights had not topped 66 in four straight games, all of which stayed Under. 10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers

8* Bryant (6:40 ET): No matter who prevails in this “First Four” matchup, it won’t be a long NCAA Tournament stay for either Bryant or Wright State as the winner will go on to face the South's #1 seed, Arizona, in the Round of 64. Bryant, champions of the NEC, is making its first ever appearance in the Big Dance. Wright State, out of the Horizon League, is making its fourth (and first since 2018). Due to the perceived home court advantage for the Raiders (their campus is located just an hour away from Dayton), bettors seem willing to hitch their wagon. But I’m not convinced they should be the favorites here.

Wright State has three double digit scorers, but little in the way of depth as four players are averaging 32+ minutes for HC Scott Nagy. If there’s foul trouble, the Raiders are going to be in big trouble here. Nagy seemed disappointed that his team was put in the “First Four,” but the reality is they were down 16 (with 11:47 left!) in the Horizon League Tourney Final against Northern Kentucky, so they’re a bit lucky to even be here. It was a one-point win, 72-71, in that game. Wright State is 262nd in defensive efficiency, worst among all 68 teams in the Tournament. 

That shaky defense will be tested by Bryant’s Peter Kiss, who is the nation’s leading scorer at 28.2 PPG and does an excellent job at getting to the FT line. The Bulldogs have lost just one game since Jan 6. In the NEC Tourney Final, they destroyed a very good Wagner team 70-43, which made me look foolish (I had Wagner). I know that Bryant benefited from some really poor three-point shooting by opponents in conference play. But Wright State shoots just 32.8% from long distance and I don’t think they are the team to exploit the Bulldogs’ defense. 8* Bryant

analysis soon

10* Belmont (7:00 ET): The NIT gets underway on Tuesday and you can call this “the Battle of Nashville” with Vanderbilt hosting Belmont in first round action. The underdog Bruins should be psyched for this matchup as it is a chance to beat a SEC program that is located right in their “backyard.” I believe Belmont is the better team here and the clincher is the fact they’ve been off for more than ten days while Vandy is just four days removed from the grind of the SEC Tournament. Take the points here. 

Belmont’s run in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tourney ended with a disappointing two-point loss to Morehead State in the semifinal. That was just the second loss for Belmont, going back to mid-January. Since 2022 began, the only teams to beat the Bruins were Morehead State and Murray State. There have been only five instances this season where this team was beaten by more than three points. Rarely are they underdogs; just four times all season have the Bruins been getting points and three of those occasions were part of the non-conference schedule, back before X-Mas. 

Vanderbilt is one of the weaker SEC teams, though they are currently on a 7-1 ATS run. That’s in stark contrast to Belmont’s 1-8 ATS slide coming into tonight. But Vandy’s recent ATS success is a byproduct of typically being the underdog. They did have a nice upset of Alabama in the SEC Tourney, but were down 15 in the 2H of that game. Belmont is 3-0 ATS the previous three times they’ve played with seven or more days rest. I like the idea of the better team getting points and I think Belmont will be the more motivated team tonight as well. 10* Belmont

8* Purdue (3:30 ET): We’ve got the potential for a real “shootout” here in the Big 10 Tournament Final as it’s a matchup of the two most efficient offenses in the entire country. But Iowa, playing its fourth game in four days, is at a disadvantage from where I sit. After pretty much breezing through their first two tourney games (beat N’western 112-76 and Rutgers 84-74), the Hawkeyes needed a second half rally to overcome Indiana in yday’s semifinal. Purdue ended up beating Michigan State by only five in the other semi, but led virtually the entire game. I’m going with who I feel has been the best Big 10 team all season. 

The Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes both times in the regular season, 77-70 in West Lafayette and 83-73 in Iowa City. They had double digit halftime leads in both games and completely smoked the Iowa defense the last time they met, shooting 61.2% for the game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. I realize that Purdue is 0-7-1 ATS its last eight games, but the pointspread won’t be a factor here as we’re basically needing just a SU win. 

Iowa has hit 40 three-pointers in the three tournament games, which is quite ridiculous and eventually those shots won’t keep falling. Had they “only” made 39, there’s a chance they wouldn’t be here as it was Jordan Bohannon’s three with less than one second remaining yesterday that got them here. Meanwhile, Purdue was up by as many as 13 in the 2H on Saturday. The Boilermakers are 24-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points and will almost certainly hit that benchmark today, given Iowa gives up 71.3 PPG. 8* Purdue

10* Princeton (12:00 ET): Princeton was the clear class of the Ivy League this season, but even at 23-5 SU, their resume isn’t strong enough to guarantee an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. So the Tigers MUST win here against long-time rival Yale in the Ivy League Tournament Final. They come in riding an eight-game win streak after ousting Cornell in the semifinals yesterday, 77-73, a game where they did not cover the spread. Yale did cover on Saturday, beating Penn 67-61 as three-point chalk, and has won 10 of 12. The teams split the regular season series, each winning in the other’s gym. 

This rubber match is being played in Harvard’s gym, so no home court advantage for Princeton. But they do have a clear advantage on the offensive end of the floor as they rank eighth in the country in points per game (80.6) and seventh in three-point shooting (38.8%). Yale may normally be tough defensively, holding six of its last nine opponents to 65 points or less, but Princeton dropped 81 on them the last time they met. The Tigers have shot better than 50% each of their last three games.

I know that Yale underachieved during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but Princeton has been the better team all season and it would be a bit of a shame if the Tigers aren’t the ones to grab the automatic bid. Yale typically feasts on getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounds, but Princeton is typically pretty good at limiting those two things. Yale is also just 4-11 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Princeton

10* Under Va Tech/Duke (8:30 ET): This is a crucial game for Virginia Tech, who is considered among the “first four out” (for the NCAA Tournament) according to both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm. Coming into the ACC Tournament, I had the Hokies as the second best team in the conference, so I’m not surprised they’ve made it thus far. They were actually a pick ‘em vs. #2 seed Notre Dame, then turned in a very impressive performance last night in defeating North Carolina 72-59. 

It would be a crime if Va Tech missed the NCAA Tournament as my power rankings call them a Top 25 team in the country. My only concern with the Hokies coming into tonight’s Tourney Final vs. Duke is that they may not have a ton left in the tank. This will be their fourth game in as many days, a stretch which began with an OT win over Clemson. I also would not be confident in the Hokies shooting 45% from three-point range again like they did last night. The Hokies have scored above their season average in every game in this tournament. Do we really think they can do that for the fourth straight game?

Duke is 0-2 ATS in ACC Tournament games, having been tested more than expected by Syracuse and Miami. We know the Blue Devils can score, but even by their standard, the past five games (all of which have gone Over) have been a bit outrageous. They are averaging 86.4 points on 51.4% shooting. Those numbers are due to come down. Va Tech held UNC to 3 of 26 from three-point range last night. When these teams played in the regular season, they snuck over by two points, but that was with Duke shooting 53% from the field. I don’t think they’ll shoot that well here. 10* Under Va Tech/Duke

analysis soon

10* Under USC/UCLA (11:30 ET): This is one of the better matchups on Friday’s entire docket as rivals USC and UCLA meet in the Pac 12 Tournament’s second semi final. USC had to rally in the second half last night to get by Washington 65-61 and did not cover the 6.5-point spread. UCLA just barely covered the nine-point spread in a 75-65 win over Washington State. UCLA comes in ranked 13th in the country, perhaps a bit low, while USC is 21st and I definitely think that’s too high.

While I may believe the Trojans to be overrated, I’m not about to fade them in this scenario. I expect a tight and relatively low-scoring game. Five of the previous USC-UCLA meetings have stayed Under the total, the exception being the last one. That game was played last weekend and despite losing, USC shot very well from three-point range (42.1%). The fact they could only score 68 points on the Bruins with that kind of three-point shooting is a little ominous. I don’t expect USC to shoot that well from three again here.

UCLA has gone Over in four straight, but they have not allowed more than 68 points in any of the last nine games. The Under is 10-2 their L12 games vs. a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under is also 6-2 the last eight times they’ve been off an ATS win. USC is 5-0 Under its last five neutral site games. In terms of tempo, neither side plays particularly fast. 10* Under USC/UCLA

9* Toledo (5:00 ET): The “chalk walked” into the MAC semifinals with the top four seeds all advancing. The first semi pits top seed Toledo against 4-seed Akron. Both of these teams won close yesterday afternoon. Toledo avoided what would have been a massive upset (they were -17 against Central Michigan) as RayJ Dennis made a layup with 10 seconds left to give the Rockets a 72-71 win. Akron won 70-68 over Buffalo as Greg Tribble made two free throws with 3.2 seconds left. 

Toledo dominated the MAC during the regular season, going 17-3 straight up and 16-4 against the spread. So it’s a bit surprising that they are such a short favorite here. The Rockets faced Akron just one time in the regular season and won that game 84-76 as a 7.5-point favorite.They shot 59% from the floor while the Zips did not help themselves by missing 10 free throws and shooting only 28% from three-point range. But note Toledo is 12-1 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. 

Akron comes into this game on a six-game win streak (as does Toledo!) but the last two wins have been by a total of three points. For whatever reason, Central Michigan always seems to play Toledo tough. But the Rockets’ four previous wins had all come by double digits. Toledo is simply the better team here and KenPom has them as an 8.5-point favorite. There’s a major edge at the offensive end where the Rockets rank 35th in the country in efficiency while the Zips are 139th. Assuming UT can push the tempo, Akron won’t be able to keep up. Lay the points. 9* Toledo

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The first thing to consider here is that Cincy MUST win the Conference Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament while Houston is obviously a NCAA Tournament team that will get a pretty high seed. The Bearcats did play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t as easy as the final 74-63 score showed against East Carolina. But after scoring the final 12 points of that game, I think they are going to surprise here and stay within the double digit number. 

Houston did not have a good end to the regular season as they got clobbered by Memphis, 75-61, a game where they were actually favored by 2.5 points. The Cougars turned the ball over a season-high 20 times in that game and trailed by as many as 23 points in the first half. Now that was just their fifth loss of the season and Memphis is the ONLY team to beat them by more than two points! But I can see a combination of the layoff and overconfidence leading to a poor start here for the favorite. Remember that due to injuries, Houston has a VERY short rotation (sometimes goes only six deep). 

Cincinnati did lose the two regular season meetings with Houston by a combined 40 points. But again, the perception that creates has led to some value for this tournament matchup. I certainly don’t think the Bearcats can play any worse than they did in either of the two regular season meetings. They made a season-high 10 three-pointers yesterday, a positive sign, and I think they will play “loose and free” here. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii (11:30 ET): This is the #3 vs. #6 (seed) matchup in the Big West quarterfinals. Hawaii, despite being seeded higher, is a slight underdog here in Henderson, NV. The Warriors won five of seven to end the regular season, capping the run with a dominant 84-62 win over Cal State Northridge in the finale. Given the number of points they scored there, combined with UC Riverside’s recent trend, this O/U line looks far too low. I’m going Over.

So UC Riverside has seen the Over hit in each of its last seven games. The last one had a total of 142 (they lost 73-72 to Long Beach State). Given that final score, I’m truly amazed at how LOW this total is as none of Riverside’s last seven games have seen fewer than 136 total points scored. Now, the Highlanders have been scoring WELL above their season average recently. But even for the year, their games average 130.2 points. 

The one time these teams played in the regular season, the game did stay Under. It was a 64-59 Riverside victory as three-point home favorites. Note that the total for that game was higher than it is here. Also, in the first meeting, the teams combined to go 12 of 35 from three-point range. I expect better shooting here. UC Riverside has shot 54% overall from the field in its last five games and Hawaii is shooting 36% from three-point range for the season. 8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii

10* Wichita State (3:00 ET): Tulsa has been a bit of an unlucky team this season, but I don't think that's going to change here in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane did pull out a one-point victory in their regular season finale, beating UCF 73-72, but you’d have to go all the way back to mid-December to find the last time this team posted B2B wins. They finished second from the bottom in the American this year, ahead of only South Florida, and were swept by their first round opponent (Wichita State), losing both games by 10 points. 

Wichita State comes into this tournament off B2B wins. One of them was against Tulsa, 72-62, as a three-point road favorite. Then the Shockers closed the regular season by beating East Carolina 70-62. It was not a great season in Wichita, but the team still sits inside the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. They’ve won and covered five of the last six meetings with Tulsa and in the regular season sweep this year, held them to an average of just 55 PPG. 

Remember that Wichita State won the regular season AAC title last season. It’s been a tough fall this year, but they are clearly better than Tulsa and the rest of the bottom-feeders in this league. This line just looks way too short, given Tulsa has just two wins away from home all season. The only “true” road win was against USF while the other was a neutral site game vs. Rhode Island back in November. The Golden Hurricane are also 0-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Wichita State.

8* Providence (12:00 ET): Surprise! Me taking the Friars may come as a shock to those who have followed my plays over the course of the season, but the situation is really in their favor in this Big East Quarterfinal matchup. Rested, they are taking on Butler, who went to overtime to upset Xavier yesterday. Let’s not forget Butler had lost five in a row going into yesterday. Providence has not lost to any Big East team besides Villanova going back to January 4th. I’m laying the points in this one. 

Now it’s been established that Providence has been arguably THE “luckiest” team in America this season. Their record in close games is stunning and Butler knows this VERY well as the Friars beat them by seven and one in the two regular season meetings, the latter going to OT after Providence rallied from 19 down in the 2H. But that’s water under the bridge now and we’ve got a superior team, rested, against someone coming off an OT game. Note Butler was down four in the last 30 seconds of regulation yesterday, so it was their “turn” to be lucky.

Providence hasn’t played since losing (by two) at Villanova on March 1st. This means they should be fully healthy as HC Ed Cooley expects Al Durham to return after missing a month, including the second game vs. Butler. Durham is a double digit scorer, so that’s a key returnee. Butler just isn’t that good (14-18 SU) and not capable of playing any better than they did yesterday. Two players carried the scoring load, and I just can’t see Harris and Lukosius combining for 56 again. 8* Providence

9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall (9:30 ET): What an absolutely atrocious season it has been for Patrick Ewing and Georgetown. The Hoyas shockingly won the Big East Tournament last year, but haven’t won a conference game since as they finished the regular season 0-19 SU vs. the rest of the BE! Needless to say, there is NOT going to be a repeat of LY’s Cinderella run. I fully expect that the Hoyas’ season will end today, but of course they are big underdogs. I think the better play is on the total. 

Seton Hall is a team that I have some faith in. The Pirates might only be the 6-seed in this tournament, but my power ratings actually call them a Top 25 team in the country! I would favor them, on a neutral court, over regular season champ Providence. Unfortunately for SH, one of the two BE teams I think is better (UConn) awaits them in the next round. I also don’t trust the Pirates laying double digits here, particularly after they failed to cover against G’town last week (won by only five). 

That meeting last week just barely stayed Under the number (145) as it was a 73-68 final. The first meeting also stayed Under and was even lower-scoring (70-63). At a neutral site (Madison Square Garden), I don’t think we’ll be seeing a higher scoring game as the Pirates are 15-4 Under their L19 games vs. teams that have losing records. Only one of their last 11 games overall would have gone Over this total. Georgetown is shooting just 38.5% away from home this year, Seton Hall isn’t much better. 9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall

10* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Because Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason, this is the only first round game in the Big 12 Tournament and the winner gets the dubious “honor” of having to face Kansas tomorrow in the quarterfinals. So it’s basically “one last chance to shine” for either Kansas State or West Virginia, the two bottom teams in the conference standings. I’m on WVU here as they showed signs of “life” by winning the regular season finale, 70-64 over TCU. Kansas State, meanwhile, has lost five in a row. 

Now the Mountaineers had dropped seven in a row before beating TCU in Morgantown. But some of those losses were close, including one by just a single point to Texas. This team did start the season by winning 13 of its first 15 games. They have lost 14 of 16 with two separate seven-game skids, however, this is the one matchup they can win in this Tournament. Kansas State has been giving up a ton of points recently, more than their season average each of the last six times out. 

Making matters tougher for K-State is that one of their leading scorers, Markquis Nowell, has been battling a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Nowell led the team with 21 points when they beat WVU in Manhattan on Valentine’s Day. That’s the last time the Wildcats won a game. Note WVU took the first meeting in Morgantown. Kansas State didn’t turn the ball over too many times in the two regular season matchups, but Bob Huggins’ press could be the difference-maker here. 10* West Virginia

8* Florida State (12:00 ET): Today is the second round of the ACC Tournament. This is the only one of the four matchups where neither of the participants played yesterday. Florida State ended its regular season on a real roll, impressively beating Virginia, Notre Dame and NC State. Impressive is not a word that could be used to describe the way Syracuse finished its regular season as the Orange have lost four in a row straight up and failed to cover five in a row. I expect recent form to hold here and am taking FSU. 

This tournament is being played in Brooklyn. While that’s within the state boundary for Syracuse, they have just four wins all season outside of the Carrier Dome. This team is shockingly bad at the defensive end, having allowed over 75 PPG for the season. Among ACC teams, only NC State had a worse defensive efficiency rating and the Wolfpack finished in last place and are already out of the Tourney. Bottom line is that I have zero belief that the ‘Cuse can win a game outside of its own gym. 

FSU actually won at the Carrier Dome back in January 76-71 as a 2.5-point dog. They did so by shooting almost 55% overall and 60% from three-point range. That was after giving the Orange one of their few road wins this season, back in December. I just think that the ‘Noles come into the rubber match in better form. Syracuse blew an 18-point lead and lost at home to Miami on Saturday, which will be tough to get over. Both teams have thin benches, but the Orange are thinner at the moment. 8* Florida State

10* Wagner (7:00 ET): These were the top two teams in the NEC all year. In fact, Wagner didn’t even lose a conference game until February, after a 13-0 start. But they ended up losing three of the final five conference games and that resulted in a drop into second place by season’s end. The regular season title was actually decided on the final day when the Seahawks lost to Bryant, 78-70, after blowing a six-point halftime lead. That was also Wagner’s lone non-OT conference loss of the season! 

As a top-two seed, Wagner got a double-bye into the tournament semis and they promptly blew out Long Island 82-62 as a 5.5-point favorite. Now that game was at home and here they’ll have to play on the road by virtue of Bryant being the top seed. But Bryant certainly struggled here at home in their semifinal, only beating Mount St. Mary’s 70-69 as a 7.5-point favorite. That game was decided on a free throw with no time remaining. Judging by the respective shooting percentages, you would expect Bryant would have lost that game. But they had a huge edge (+19) in FT attempts compared to MSM. 

Wagner did win the season’s first meeting, 84-81, so there’s that. To me, they have been the better team this season. Bryant has been pretty lucky (#5 luck rating over at KenPom) and my power ratings say that even with the home court edge, they should be a dog here. Wagner has a much higher defensive efficiency rating and should be able to avenge its only regulation conference loss of the season here. They have won 26 of their last 31 NEC games. Take the points. 10* Wagner

8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Both teams involved in the CAA Tourney Final have gone Under in four straight games. But I believe we’re getting some tremendous value here with this number, considering the last time Delaware and UNC Wilmington met, the O/U line closed at 143.5. Now, that matchup did stay Under, but that was because UNC Wilmington only managed to shoot 40% overall and 2 of 15 from three-point range (still won 69-62). It should be noted that the season’s first meeting, a 70-68 UNCW victory, did go Over the total. So will this third installment. 

It is a surprise that Delaware has gotten thus far. The Blue Hens were the 5-seed entering this tournament and last night pulled an upset over the top seed, Towson, winning 69-56 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Blue Hens really benefited from poor Towson shooting as the Tigers shot just 31% overall and were a hideous 4 of 23 from three-point range. While Delaware held both tournament opponents to just 56 points, I don’t think they can count on UNCW shooting as poorly as Towson did last night. Also, Delaware gives up 70.3 PPG on the year. 

I’ve gone through UNC Wilmington’s season before; they have been an extremely fortunate team that always seems to win close. Last night was no different as the second seeded Seahawks outlasted Charleston 60-57. I made the mistake of betting against them. Not going to get in their way again. But like Delaware, UNCW probably can’t count on the same defensive numbers they turned in last night as they held Charleston to a 38.3 FG% with only four made three-pointers and seven made free throws. I think this number is too low. 8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington

10* Oral Roberts (9:30 ET): The “chalk has walked” in the bottom half of the Summit League bracket as 3-seed Oral Roberts will be meeting 2-seed North Dakota State in the second semifinal. Honestly, whoever wins this will be a huge underdog in the Final, presuming the opponent is South Dakota State, who hasn’t been beaten in conference play all year. But I’m seeing value in this one as I believe Oral Roberts to be the better team. Take the points. 

This is a double revenge spot for ORU, who lost the regular season meetings 72-71 and 77-59. In those two losses, the Eagles shot below 25% from three-point range. That’s very uncharacteristic for them. They are shooting 38.1% from behind the arc for the season and average 83.7 PPG, fourth most in the country. Last night in the quarterfinals, they put up 80 against Western Illinois, a game where they never trailed. 

North Dakota State has been a pretty lucky team this season, winning a lot of close games. It wasn’t close yesterday as the Bison rolled to an 82-62 victory over Denver, but even so they were down at halftime. I think that Oral Roberts is due for some positive regression at the defensive end and they’ve now covered seven straight games on a neutral court. I simply happen to think that the Eagles are the better team here and cannot see them losing a third straight time to NDSU. 10* Oral Roberts

8* Charleston (8:30 ET): The 6-seed is favored over the 2-seed in the CAA Tournament, which should tell you something right off the bat. UNC Wilmington (the 2-seed) has been one of the luckiest teams in America this season, going 12-3 SU in games decided by six or less or in overtime. They are 4-0 in OT games. There have been nine instances this season where the Seahawks trailed in a game by double digits, but came back to win. They’ve trailed in 14 of their 22 wins this season, including yesterday’s quarterfinal victory over Elon. 

Now, given UNCW ended up winning 75-58, you may not realize they were down at halftime on Sunday. But Elon could muster only 22 points in the 2H and their leading scorer was held to four points on 2 of 11 shooting. Tonight’s opponent has had no such issues scoring as Charleston comes in hot, having shot better than 51% in each of its last six games. The Cougars put up 92 last night in their quarterfinal win over Hofstra, who was the 3-seed. 

I made the mistake of playing the Under in that Charleston-Hofstra game and learned my lesson about what the Cougars can do. They are second in the country in tempo and averaging 78.9 PPG. This is a double revenge spot for them as they lost both regular season meetings to UNC Wilmington. But the set up here is a bit different as both regular season meetings saw Charleston come in off a seven-day break. Maybe that was too much rest? Charleston led by 22 at the half last night. This is a hot team and UNCW is a team due to lose. 8* Charleston

9* Under Charleston/Hofstra (8:30 ET): Ok, I don’t think for a second that this game will be as high-scoring as the regular season finale, when Hofstra beat Charleston 89-84. Hofstra is very good at forcing turnovers, but even by their standard, last Monday was preposterous. They forced Charleston into 28 TO’s, a season-high, and obviously feasted off those. Assuming the Cougars cut down on the number of turnovers, that should limit fast-break opportunities for the Pride and I like this game to stay Under a (very) high total. 

Over their last five games, Charleston has shot a somewhat insane 54.1% from the field. That can’t continue. For the year, the Cougs are shooting just 43.8%. Because of their tempo, this team is always going to score a decent amount of points. But what we’ve seen from them lately is simply not sustainable. Charleston also made 52% of its three-point attempts in the last game. That won’t be repeated either as they are shooting just 33.7% from behind the arc for the season. 

Hofstra is also a high-scoring team, but this total is high even by their standard. Seeing a total open at 160 or higher in today’s day and age is quite rare. I know that the last game closed at 160, but that was a season-high for both teams. With a cleaner game by Charleston (who won’t shoot as well) and it being at a neutral court, this one promises to stay Under. The first meeting of the season, also won by Hofstra, was a 76-73 final. Look for something along those lines tonight. 9* Under Charleston/Hofstra

10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): Gonna try again to fade Wisconsin, who remains one of the more overrated (and certainly LUCKIEST) teams in the country. The Badgers come into this regular season finale ranked #10 in the country, however both KenPom (#26) and my own personal power ratings (#27) look at them a lot less favorably. The key to the overachieving in Madison has been a preposterous record in close games; the Badgers are 15-1 SU when the final margin is six points or less. Four of their last five wins have been by five points or less, the last three coming by a total of nine points. 

A win here would give the Badgers the Big 10 regular season title. (They can also clinch if Illinois loses later today). What’s crazy about Wisconsin being the probable #1 seed in the conference tournament is that my power rankings consider them to be just the SIXTH best team in the Big 10! At the bottom of the league is Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers aren’t going down without a fight. The last two games have seen them pull off an upset, beating Penn State by 23 and then Ohio State by eight. The ‘Huskers were DD dogs in both games. 

Back on January 27th, Nebraska was able to cover the spread (at home) vs. Wisconsin, losing by only eight as nine-point dogs. They are also 3-0 ATS this season as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more at the betting window, home or road. Just take the points here as when Wisconsin is involved, it’s almost always a close contest. 10* Nebraska

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (6:00 ET): It’s Coach K’s swan song at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this is set to be his final home game on the Duke bench. It’s obviously going to be an emotional setting, facing rival North Carolina in the last game of the regular season. Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and beat UNC handily, 87-67, in Chapel Hill earlier this year. Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils are big favorites for the rematch. But I think the better play is on the total. 

In that first meeting, Duke shot a blistering 57.6% from the field. Can’t see that happening again. The teams also combined to shoot 18 of 40 from three-point range, a very high percentage. Again, don’t look for that to be repeated. With all the pregame festivities planned for this game, I can see the shooters affected and this game to get off to a slow start offensively. The last five UNC-Duke games have all gone Over the total, but none will have the emotion of this one. It will not be the kind of “up and down” game we saw last month. 

Duke is also due to cool off here after shooting a blistering 59% against Pittsburgh earlier in the week. In that game, they made 50% of their 3PA. Again, these kinds of numbers simply can’t be produced every game. Note, after the hot shooting in the first UNC matchup, the Blue Devils came back down to Earth 48 hours later and shot just 42.3% in a loss to Virginia. The final score of North Carolina’s last game, 88-79 over Syracuse, is misleading when you consider that it went to overtime. It was 72-72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

9* Iowa State (6:00 ET): Coming full circle on Iowa State, who was 12-0 SU and ranked as high as #8 (in the country!) at that time. I was adamant the Cyclones, who finished 0-18 SU in Big 12 play last season, were not as good as their record/ranking. Sure enough, they’ve slipped considerably and come into their regular season finale vs. Baylor at 20-10 SU overall. At least they’ve been much more competitive in conference play this season, going 7-10 SU. That said, it was a horrible showing earlier this week at OK State (lost 53-36) and the Cyclones BADLY need an inspired showing here in Waco to seize some momentum for the Big XII Tournament. 

Baylor has no issues right now. They are ranked #3 in the country and coming off huge wins over Kansas and Texas. They need a win here and Kansas to lose to Texas to win the Big 12 regular season championship outright. Regardless, a likely #1 seed awaits in the NCAA Tournament. But coming off such high profile wins, and laying a big number here, it’s a good spot to fade the Bears as Iowa State is the team in more desperate need of a good showing. 

The Cyclones are off their lowest scoring game since 1948 as they shot a season-worst 28.3% from the field. They were just 2 of 17 from three-point range and scored only 16 points in the 2H. Tonight is a revenge game as Baylor handed the ‘Clones their first SU loss of the season, back on New Year’s Day, by a single point. ISU has covered 16 of the last 19 times it has been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. They can’t shoot any worse than they did Wednesday and have already shown they can compete with Baylor. Take the points. 9* Iowa State

10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): The Fighting Irish have an excellent chance of finishing second in the ACC. All they need to do is win here and have North Carolina lose to Duke. The odds of that happening are certainly good. Now, do I think for a second that ND is actually the second best team in the ACC? No. But we can tackle that at a later date. Here, I’m focused on the total, which I believe is too high against a Pitt team that is inept offensively and won’t score very many points Saturday. Take the Under.

Pitt is near the bottom of the ACC with a 6-13 SU record in conference play. Only NC State and Georgia Tech will finish below the Panthers and it’s likely to be a quick exit in next week’s ACC Tournament. Pitt comes into the regular season finale on a three-game losing streak, every one of the losses coming at home, and the last two were blowouts. I mentioned earlier that the Panthers are not a strong offensive team; they average just 60.5 points per game away from home this season.

Notre Dame is allowing just 63.8 PPG in South Bend, so expect Pitt to score fewer here than the 67 they finished with in the first meeting, back in December. The Panthers haven’t scored more than 64 in any of their last three games. Notre Dame, who has seen the Over hit in each of its last six games, is due to have a low-scoring game. Pitt has been victimized by hot shooting each of its last two games, but don’t be surprised if ND shoots worse than usual here as they are off a loss (74-70 to Florida State) and 4-1-1 Under off their L6 SU losses. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame

8* Under Illinois State/Northern Iowa (1:00 ET): This is the first of four MVC quarterfinals on Friday. The top seed is Northern Iowa, who had a bit of a shocking late season run to earn its position, beating conference favorite Loyola Chicago (in overtime) in the final game of the regular season. The Panthers have won 9 of 10 (lone loss was a blowout to Loyola) and have shot the lights out in each of their last three games. But in this early start, I’m looking for scoring to be a lot lower than expected. 

Illinois State had to win a game to get here. The Redbirds downed Indiana State yesterday, in an ugly 58-53 game where they covered the spread as 1.5-point chalk. ISU has been one of the more unlucky teams in the country this season, but now finds itself playing with “house money.” It can’t be ignored that before defeating Indiana State twice (also faced them in the reg season finale), the Redbirds had lost 10 of 11. Really, their only chance here is to slow the game down. They can’t outscore Northern Iowa. 

Let me point out that both regular season meetings between these teams stayed Under. There were 142 and 143 total pts scored in those games. Looking through the season results, this is a high O/U line for both teams. Both have had only two games where the O/U line was higher than 149. Northern Iowa has shot better than 55% over its L3 games, a number they cannot possibly maintain at a neutral setting. The Panthers have gone 21-8 Under in their L29 MVC Tourney games. 8* Under Illinois St/Northern Iowa

10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana (9:00 ET): The Big Sky regular season is wrapping up this week. This is an important game with Northern Colorado and Montana battling for seeding. Both are locks to finish in the top five, which means a bye in the first round. But both also have a chance to finish as high as second depending on how things go. Montana is coming off a big upset win over Montana State, who has already clinched the regular season title. Northern Colorado just won a wild game over Idaho. 

Since I am playing the total here, I should probably mention that EVERY Montana game in the month of February went Over. That’s eight straight Overs. They’ve allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the floor. But the key here is how the Golden Grizzlies’ defense improves - remarkably - at home where they are giving up an average of only 58.2 PPG this season. That’s top 16 in the country! Against Montana State on Sunday, they allowed just ONE three-pointer to be made! 

Northern Colorado has gone Over in four straight and beat Idaho 98-94 on Sunday (no overtime!). Both teams shot 55% in that game, which I can’t see being replicated here. Because of all the Overs, this number opened 17.5 points higher than the closing O/U line for the first meeting. So I’m seeing lots of value here. This is a very high total by Montana standards. In fact, it’s the highest O/U line for any of their games this season. 10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana

8* Kennesaw State (7:00 ET): Kennesaw State has been incredibly unlucky this season, finishing fourth in the A-Sun East Division despite being tied for the fifth highest rating (in the conference) over at KenPom. I think the Owls can give Western Division Champ Jacksonville State a real scare here in the quarterfinals, even though they are at the disadvantage of having had to play a game to get here. On Monday, the Owls defeated Eastern Kentucky 82-73 and covered the 3.5-point spread. 

This game is at Jacksonville State as the higher seed gets to host all games in the A-Sun Tourney. Jacksonville State certainly ended the regular season well, posting four straight wins and covers. All four wins were by double digits. But now could be a good chance to “sell high” on the Gamecocks, who are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. It was only a six-point game when they won at Kennesaw State back in January. Kennesaw is 5-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 

Also, while Kennesaw is just 2-4 SU over its last six games, they have been remarkably competitive. The four losses have either been by less than six points or in overtime. The Owls really should have a better record and this is a game with some serious upset potential. The underdog has outscored its opponents over the course of this season, which further illustrates how unlucky they have been. Eventually, a team’s luck WILL turn and I give the dog an excellent shot at pulling off the outright win here. 8* Kennesaw State

8* Oakland (7:00 ET): I’ve got the Golden Grizzlies rated as the better team here, so I’m surprised the line has moved this way. Oakland did need a win to make the quarterfinals while Wright State had a bye. But that disadvantage is mitigated by yesterday being an off-day. And it’s not like Oakland was really tested on Tuesday. They won rather easily, 69-58 over a terrible IUPUI team, and while they did not cover, take note that the spread was pretty massive (-23.5). I’m taking the better team and the points here. 

The reason Oakland failed to cover Tuesday was that they were just 8 of 27 from three-point range while IUPUI was 9 of 15. Still being able to win by double digits, while being on the wrong end of that kind of three-point percentage disparity, is pretty impressive. Now, as was already stated, IUPUI is a terrible team (maybe the worst in the country). But I’ve got Oakland rated as the top team in the Horizon, even though they finished fifth! Yes, you’ve got to factor the home court edge for Wright State into this line. But I don’t think that’s enough for Wright State to be favored by this many. 

Oakland has double revenge from the regular season, losing the two meetings by 4 and 11. Both were one-point games at half. I think it speaks volumes that in the regular season finale, Oakland was a favorite over regular season champ Cleveland State and won rather easily. They’ve struggled at the betting window much of the season, but this is a rare time they are underdogs. Wright State does not defend the three-point line well and I don’t think they’ll outrebound Oakland the same way they did in the two regular season matchups. Trust me on this one. Oakland is the better team! 8* Oakland

10* LSU (9:00 ET): This is a big one for LSU, who I consider a Top 20 team in America, but they are just 8th in the SEC with an 8-8 SU record. To me, the Tigers should be up there competing with the top four for a conference championship. Tonight they face an Arkansas team that is up in that top four and whose only loss in the last two months was by a single point at Alabama. The Razorbacks are 9-0-1 ATS their L10 games as they pushed as two-point favorites over Kentucky this past weekend. 

I have the underdog rated as the better team here, so this is too many points and I’ll gladly take them. LSU has won four of six, but both losses were by a total of seven points and one was at Kentucky. The Tigers certainly remember losing as 6.5-point favorites to Arkansas back in Baton Rouge last month. Now it's payback time. 

This is a tough spot for the Hogs, coming off the win over UK. They also have Tennessee on deck. Tonight marks just the sixth time that LSU is an underdog this season. They are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* LSU

8* UNC Asheville (2:00 ET): UNC Asheville will look to make it a season sweep over Charleston Southern this afternoon. The two regular season meetings weren’t even close with the Bulldogs winning by 23 at home and 19 on the road. Going back, they’ve beaten Charleston Southern all six times over the L3 seasons. This will be the first time, during that stretch, that the teams are meeting in the Big South Tournament. I expect the favorite to roll here. 

Charleston Southern, who is seeded last in this Tourney, has just one win in its last 12 games and it came over a non-DI foe (Toccoa Falls). Since then, it’s been six straight losses, most of them by double digits. The Buccaneers’ one and only Big South victory this season took place at home, against High Point, and it was by just four points. This is a bad basketball team, folks. 

UNC Asheville was taken to triple overtime in its regular season finale, but did end up beating Presbyterian 98-96. That was a well-earned victory after dropping the previous two games by a total of six points. Now note the number of points that Charleston Southern allowed in its regular season finale (92) and that was just in regulation. UNC Asheville is 10-3 ATS L13 after allowing 80+ points while Charleston Southern is 2-9 ATS its L11 in that same situation. Lay the points. 8* UNC Asheville

8* Holy Cross (7:00 ET): Though they dropped BOTH regular season meetings to American U, I absolutely LOVE the situation here for Holy Cross, who is getting this 1st round Patriot League tournament matchup at home due to still finishing with a better conference record. American U has just five conference wins this year and finished in the basement of the Patriot League. In addition to two of the wins coming at HC’s expense, the Eagles won their final regular season game, 65-55 over Loyola MD. 

The fact that American won their last game only enhances my desire to fade them here. The Eagles have not won two straight conference games all season. They also have just three road wins. One of those obviously came here, but that was a game where Holy Cross turned in a putrid offensive effort in the 1H, scoring just 14 points. I think it’s fair to say that won’t be repeated tonight. The idea that American U would sweep three games against the same opponent just seems unlikely to me. 

Holy Cross actually has more than just double revenge coming into this one, they’ve actually lost the L6 head to head meetings. While you might then argue that history is NOT on the side of the home favorite here, I would beg to differ as American U has not won B2B games at any point since Dec 8-11. I find it quite hard to believe the Eagles could beat the same team on the road twice in the same season. After an ATS win this season, American has gone 2-11 SU and been outscored by 10.9 PPG. 8* Holy Cross

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): I like the value we’re getting here. Eastern Michigan was a 2.5-point favorite when it won at Kalamazoo back on January 4th. The final score of that game was 85-79 and the Eagles never trailed and led by 17 at the half. Now not a ton has gone right for EMU since winning that conference opener. They come into their final regular season home game having dropped 12 of 15 and have failed to cover each of the last four games. But this is a VERY winnable contest where they are laying a short number to the worst team in the MAC. I’m laying the points. 

Western Michigan had zero conference wins entering Feb 12, but have shockingly won three of their last five, including a 78-67 upset at Bowling Green (were 8.5 point underdogs) on Saturday. That win snapped a 13-game road losing streak for the Broncos, so the idea of them winning AGAIN on the road seems far-fetched. Here’s the other thing; only the top eight teams in the MAC qualify for the conference tournament and WMU has already been eliminated from contention. So they’ve got NOTHING to play for these L2 games. 

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can still find its way into the Conference Tourney by winning its last two games. So their motivation is high here. I know the Eagles have struggled to cover the spread recently (1-7 ATS L8), but again, this seems like a REALLY solid value at home against the worst team in the MAC. EMU should have no problem scoring on a team that gives up nearly 80 PPG on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan

10* Fresno State (10:00 ET): The upcoming Mountain West Tournament figures to be a real “dogfight” with the likes of Boise State, Wyoming, San Diego State and Colorado State considered the favorites. But don’t discount this Fresno State team as a possible darkhorse. I realize that the Bulldogs are just 7-7 SU in conference play, but this is a team that ranks #3 in the COUNTRY in scoring defense, giving up just 57.4 PPG. Here at home, that number drops to a paltry 55.7 PPG! 

New Mexico is a team we last checked on last weekend. They traveled to face last place San Jose State, who was still winless in conference play, and promptly lost 71-55 as 5.5-point chalk. I was obviously very glad to have faded the Lobos in that spot. Two days later, they lost again, badly, this time as 12-point underdogs (81-56 to Utah State). Saturday saw them snap their losing streak with a four-point win over Air Force, but they did not cover the eight-point spread. Note that New Mexico has just one SU win this year in conference play against someone other than Air Force and San Jose State, who are the bottom two teams. 

Back on Jan 25, FSU won the first meeting of these teams, 65-60 in Albuquerque. New Mexico is much weaker away from home where it is 2-10 SU and giving up 81.5 PPG. Given Fresno State’s defensive numbers (see above), this has the potential to turn into a real blowout. The Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven games against teams with losing records and with their regular season ending with games at San Diego State and Wyoming, a win here is a must. They won by 25 at Air Force last Tuesday and haven’t played since. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them to dominate on Monday. 10* Fresno State

8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Given the fact Texas Southern was a 2.5-point favorite for the first meeting with Alcorn State (and that was on the road), it would seem as if we’re getting a bit of a “discount” on the Tigers here at home Monday night. Now, the fact TX Southern lost that first meeting, 73-72, obviously had to be accounted for by the oddsmakers. But my power ratings say that they should be double digit favorites in this one. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games overall! 

This game will go a long way in determining the winner of the SWAC’s West Division. Currently, despite losing the first head to head meeting, TX Southern has a half-game edge on Alcorn State. But Alcorn State’s final two games are against the two last place teams in the conference and at home. Figuring they’ll win those, the Braves are in control of their own destiny as far as the division race is concerned. But if TX Southern were to win here and then Saturday vs. Prairie View A&M, they’d win the division based on a better overall WL record.

This is Alcorn State’s second road game in three days. They upset PV A&M on Saturday, winning 72-69 as a 2.5-point dog. It was the Braves’ fourth consecutive road win and they really benefited from the opponent going 4 of 17 from three-point range. Alcorn’s last two victories have been by a total of four points. As for TX Southern, I’ve got them as the favorites to win the SWAC Tournament. They shot an impressive 55% against Jackson State on Saturday (third straight game over 50%) and are winning by an average of almost 15 PPG at home this season. Alcorn State shoot just 40.3% on the road, averaging 63.9 PPG. 8* Texas Southern

10* Monmouth (2:00 ET): These MAAC rivals are playing for the second time in three games with Monmouth going for the season sweep. Unfortunately for the Hawks, in between these two meetings with Siena, they lost outright (as a four-point favorite) to St. Peter’s, 70-65. Meanwhile, Siena bounced back with a 78-71 win at Quinnipiac where they were 2.5-point dogs. The Saints have been among the luckiest teams in the country this season and are not even in the top 250 of my power ratings! It is rather shocking to see them tied for second in the conference coming into the final week of the regular season. 

Monmouth could overtake Siena for second with a win here. It would give them the season-sweep and thus the tiebreak. St. Peter’s is also a game ahead of Monmouth and the Hawks were swept by them. But it’s a very favorable last few games here for Monmouth as they should be favored to win out. The Hawks have been absolute beasts on the road this year, going 13-2 ATS, including 4-0 when laying three points or fewer. When they beat Siena last month, they held them to just 19 points in the first half! As I mentioned the last time I faded them, first half scoring has been an issue for Siena all season. They average 30.1 PPG in the 1H! 

Since that last time I faded Siena (a winner as they lost outright here at home to Marist), they’ve won two of three. But this is still a team that I feel is very lucky to even have a winning record this season. They rank 272nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 201st defensively. It is very telling that the oddsmakers have them as underdogs at home for today’s game. Iona is clearly the best MAAC team this season, but I have Monmouth #2 and Siena down at #7 in my own power ratings. Lay the short number here. 10* Monmouth

10* Oregon (10:00 ET): #16 USC has been living dangerously of late, winning its last two games by a total of five points. I played against the Trojans in both games, neither of which they covered. In fact, this team is now 2-6-1 ATS its last nine games. They won in the final second over Washington State last Sunday, 62-60 (as seven-point chalk) after trailing most of the way. Thursday’s win at Oregon State required double overtime. That was against the last place team in the Pac 12. Now, for the first time since their last loss, USC finds itself playing a second straight road game.

Oregon picked up a huge win on Thursday, beating #12 UCLA 68-63 here in Eugene. Can the Ducks now make it a “SoCal double” against two of the league’s three ranked teams? I think so! Oregon has now swept UCLA and can do the same here to USC after besting the Trojans 79-69 as six-point underdogs in LA last month. Firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a win tonight would do wonders for the Ducks’ resume.

And they are favored! Last month, they were up 16 on USC at the half. This is a team that began the year ranked in the Top 15. USC has two key players - Boogie Ellis and Isaiah White - listed as questionable for tonight. So their depth will be tested on the road. I simply do not think the Trojans are as good as their ranking. They’ve been very lucky this season to go 8-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. The line for this game “tells the story.” 10* Oregon

8* Creighton (8:30 ET): You know the drill with this Providence team. The Friars’ incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. After coming back from a 19-point deficit (in the second half!) to beat Butler last Sunday, Providence won in triple overtime against Xavier on Wednesday. Three of their last four wins have required OT and they are also 10-1 SU this season in games decided by five points or less. KenPom, appropriately, has the Friars rated as the “luckiest” team in America and my own power rankings have them as just the SIXTH best team in the Big East. I will continue fading! 

Providence obviously deserves to be ranked (they are 23-3 SU), but if you think this is one of the Top 11 teams in America, then I’ve got a “bridge in Topeka” you might be interested in buying! They are not even in the Top 40 of my power rankings. Five of their last seven wins have been by four points or less and that DOESN’T even include the 3OT game! I simply refuse to believe this run of good fortune can continue. 

Creighton comes in looking to play “spoiler” here. The Bluejays have won six in a row, three of them by three points or less, so they know “a thing or two” about close wins as well. Somewhat appropriately, the two Creighton-Providence meetings last year were decided by a total of six points (road team went 2-0). I am aware that PG Nembhard fractured his wrist against St. John’s and his season is done. But another freshman has returned (Kaluma). Creighton is a hot team and, again, this is all about fading Providence. Take the points. 8* Creighton

8* Rutgers (6:00 ET): This is the second time in less than two weeks that Wisconsin, who is ranked #14, is a short underdog to an unranked conference foe. They eked out a 74-69 win at Indiana back on 2/15, but I don’t think the Badgers pull the same trick again here. This is an overrated team, according to my power rankings. I faded them earlier in the week when they escaped Minnesota with a one-point win (Minnesota covered as five-point dogs). The Badgers’ record in close games has been insanely good. I think they’re due to drop one. Oh by the way, Saturday’s opponent (Rutgers) won in Madison earlier this month!

After Wednesday, Wisconsin is now 13-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have clearly been one of the luckiest teams in the entire country this season. Clearly, unless you are from Madison, you can’t possibly believe that the Badgers are the 14th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10! My power ratings have them at #30.

Rutgers has played an insanely hard schedule of late, but they’ve (mostly) been up to the challenge. They had four straight wins over Top 25 teams (including Wisconsin) before losing at Purdue and Michigan. This is a different team at the RAC as the Scarlet Knights are 13-2 SU at home and holding teams to just 59.7 PPG. Look for them to sweep the season series and cover the spread here. 8* Rutgers

8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Two teams in the upper tier of the Atlantic 10 meet in this Friday night battle on ESPN2. I had Richmond on Tuesday, laying the points with them at GW and they came through with a 84-71 win and cover. Looking back, the Spiders have really only had one bad game (more like one bad half) since losing the first meeting with St. Louis, 76-69 back on Jan 2. Since that time, three of their four losses have been by three points or less. The exception was last Friday at VCU (lost by 20), but that was a tie game at halftime. 

Saint Louis, who is a game up on Richmond for fifth place in the A-10, hasn’t really beaten anyone in the A-10’s upper tier with the exception of a 72-61 win over Dayton three weeks ago. The Billikens dropped two games to St. Bonaventure and were also recently blown out at Davidson. They did rebound from that 21-point loss by defeating St. Joe’s on Tuesday, but that was at home. The Billikens are just 3-4 SU on the conference road this season compared to 7-1 SU at home. 

Saint Louis is the highest scoring team in the A-10, but they struggle defensively out on the road, giving up 76.1 PPG. Look for Richmond to take advantage. I also find it hard to believe that teams will continue hitting 38% of their 3PA against the Spiders here in Richmond. In the first meeting, Richmond held St. Louis to 5 of 19 from three-point range. This is a major revenge spot for the home team as they’ve lost three in a row to SLU, who is just 1-10 ATS its L11 road games vs. teams that have winning home records. 8* Richmond

8* Oregon State (11:00 ET): USC was very lucky to escape with a 62-60 win Sunday night against Washington State. Thankfully, I had Wazzu plus the points, so it was a winning bet for me. USC won the game on a last second shot after trailing most of the way. They were down six with just over five minutes to go and scored the game’s final five points. Curiously, Washington State was 5 of 32 from TWO-point range in the game and could not take full advantage of 16 offensive rebounds. It was a very odd box score and again, USC was lucky to walk away the victor. 

At 23-4, this is USC’s best start to a season since 1974. I maintain that the Trojans are slightly overrated and just barely a Top 25 team. They have been rather fortunate to go 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. Laying double digits here, on the road, seems like a good time to fade. The Trojans have covered just two of their last eight games. One was as a 10.5 point dog at Arizona (they lost the game straight up) while the other was as a two-point dog (beat UCLA by three). The last time this team covered as a favorite was January 24th. 

Meanwhile, it has been an incredible free fall for Oregon State, who was in the Elite Eight last year and now is 3-22 straight up. I recall playing against them (successfully) in the very first game of the season. The Beavers have not won since 12/31 and have one of the worst ATS records in the country at 6-18-1. However, I think this is a good value on them in Corvallis. Every SU win this year has come at home and earlier in the year, they stayed within 10 of USC on the road (despite being -12 in FT attempts). Hold your nose and take the points here. USC is overrated. 8* Oregon State

10* Belmont (9:00 ET): Well, here we go. It’s second-place Belmont (14-2 in OVC, 24-5 overall) taking on first place Murray State (16-0, 26-2) in perhaps the marquee “mid-major” game of this College Basketball season. As you can see from the spread, oddsmakers believe these teams are pretty evenly ranked, much more so than the pollsters, who have Murray State as the #19 team in America and Belmont barely drawing any votes. My view is that Murray State has been a great story this year, but they are NOT one of the Top 20 teams in America. In fact, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the top 50! 

So it’s probably time for the Racers to be knocked down a peg. They’ve had two “close calls” recently, needing to come from behind in the second half against both Morehead State and UT Martin. Now both those games were on the road. At home, just like in conference play, Murray State is undefeated this season. But it’s probably worth mentioning that they were six-point underdogs in the first meeting with Belmont. The fact they won 82-60 and have gone on such a tear has obviously caused a dramatic shift in the market for this rematch. But, now being ranked, it feels that the Racers are overvalued. 

Belmont shot horribly in that first meeting, particularly from behind the arc where they finished 5 of 23. They had beaten Murray State four straight times before that loss, however. The Bruins enter tonight’s rematch on a 10-game win streak and four of those wins have been by 20 or more. Tonight is just the fourth time all season that Belmont has been an underdog. They very much have been overshadowed by Murray State’s success this year, but really they are pretty even with the Racers and a legit threat not just to win tonight, but to also “steal” the OVC’s automatic bid in the conference tournament. Take the points. 10* Belmont

9* St. Thomas MN (8:00 ET): This would be my first ever play on St. Thomas, a D-I newbie for the 2021-22 season that is competing in the Summit League. The Tommies are simply looking to avoid the basement of the conference standings and with two games to go, I like their chances. They have two favorable matchups, both at home, and are now up a game on last place North Dakota, whom they just defeated 84-74 (as a 1-point road dog) 48 hours ago. Now the Tommies look to avenge a one-point loss they suffered back in December. 

They are facing Denver, who historically struggles on the road and this season has been no different in that regard. The Pioneers are 2-12 SU in “true” road games, last winning one against aforementioned North Dakota back on ⅔. That’s Denver’s only win over its L7 games as they’ve dropped four in a row, most recently a three-point decision at Omaha seven days ago. That game saw them blow an eight-point lead in the final two minutes and lose at the buzzer. 

The first meeting between these teams saw Denver shoot the ball ridiculously well at 58.7% overall. But of course that was at home where they play much better. St. Thomas had a 15-point halftime advantage in that first meeting, something that I’m sure the players remember and they’ll be looking to avenge that memory. Also, the Tommies haven’t won at home since New Year’s Day, something they’ll be looking to change. After failing to cover 11 in a row, they’ve covered back to back games. Lay the short number. 9* St. Thomas MN

8* Western Illinois (7:00 ET): It may seem a bit strange to see a team like Western Illinois laying double digits, but you have to consider just how BAD Omaha has been all season long. The fact that the visitors come into this Thursday night Summit League clash off a rare win makes them an even stronger fade, at least in my estimation. Then there’s the matter of this being a revenge game for Western Illinois, who dropped the first meeting (as 13-point road favorites) back in December. You’re going to want to lay the points here. 

Omaha is 5-22 SU this season, but like I said, they did win their last game. It was a 72-69 win - as 2-point home underdogs - over Denver exactly one week ago. Incredibly, the Mavericks were able to come back from an eight-point deficit in the final two minutes with Frankie Fidler scoring all 11 points, including the game-winning three at the buzzer. Do not expect that kind of magic to repeat itself on the road where Omaha has yet to win this season (0-13) and is being outscored by 24.2 PPG. 

Western Illinois is on a five-game ATS losing streak, so we’re getting a great value on them here. The Leathernecks were actually 13-point favorites ON THE ROAD in the first meeting with Omaha, a game where they shot horribly (32.4%), especially from three-point range (7 of 37). I really love the revenge angle here, plus the fact we’re getting to play against Omaha off a win. Western Illinois is a high-scoring team (78.8 PPG) and plays much better defense at home. They’ll shoot a lot better tonight than they did in that first matchup with the Mavericks. 8* Western Illinois

8* LSU (9:00 ET): The Tigers have fallen out of both polls, but are still considered top 18 by both KenPom and my ratings. There are six SEC teams that I feel belong amongst the Top 20 in the country (it’s a very strong league this year) and this is definitely one of them. LSU is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, which will serve them well come March and in this critical matchup Wednesday night at Kentucky. Already this season, the Tigers have beaten the Wildcats, 65-60 as a two-point FAVORITE down in Baton Rouge. 

Because of the revenge angle, this number is inflated. It should be pointed out that Kentucky has struggled in B2B games, first losing by 13 at Tennessee and then falling behind by that same margin against Alabama, before rallying for a win on Saturday. There is no denying the fact that John Calipari has himself a team that can cut down the nets this year. But given the recent form, I can’t see the Wildcats covering this spread tonight. LSU, who is off a loss, is going to be the more motivated side even though they won the first head to head matchup. 

It was a 77-75 loss at South Carolina on Saturday for LSU. That dropped them to 7-7 SU in SEC play, very much in the middle of the pack, which is not at all indicative of how they stack up against the rest of the league. The Tigers led South Carolina by as many as 11 in the second half before wilting late. This will be just the fifth time getting points all season. Kentucky is short-handed right now and all five starters played 35+ minutes on Saturday. Grab the points. 8* LSU

10* Minnesota (9:00 ET): #13 Wisconsin has been extremely lucky in close games this season as they are 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have the #7 luck rating at KenPom, who has them at #25 overall. My own power ratings have them a bit lower (#31). Clearly, unless you’re from Madison, you can’t possibly think that the Badgers are the 13th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10 and consider they were recently a short dog at Indiana, who is NOT one of the six Big 10 teams I have ahead of Wisconsin in my power ratings.

Nor is Minnesota one of the top six. But the Golden Gophers are coming off a win, 77-60 over Northwestern as 4.5-point home dogs. It speaks volumes that Wisconsin is basically getting the same amount of respect here than N’western did. Minnesota has won its last two home games, also defeating Penn State 76-70 (as a one-point favorite) back on 2/12. Earlier in the season, the Gophers covered the number at Madison, losing only 66-60 as an 11.5-point dog. The game was tied with 2:23 remaining 

Remember that this is Wisconsin’s first game after the fracas against Michigan on Sunday. HC Greg Gard was not suspended, but fined and the aftermath could very well be a distraction for the Badgers heading into this one. The Badgers only shoot 31% from behind the three-point line, which is second to last in the Big 10. They instead live at the free throw line and rely on not turning the ball over. Given how their season has played out, I don’t think it’s a sustainable blueprint. Take the points here as I believe an outright upset is likely. 10* Minnesota

8* Loyola Chicago (8:00 ET): I “smell” blowout in this one as the best and worst teams in the Missouri Valley match up on Wednesday. Loyola Chicago has stumbled a bit recently, going just 5-3 SU in its last eight games, but that may be a byproduct of having gotten off to such a strong start in conference play. Now the Ramblers find themselves in a first place tie with Northern Iowa, who they’ll face in the regular season finale on Saturday. I don’t see any “fooling around” tonight as Loyola can clinch at least a share of the MVC regular season crown with a win here. 

Evansville is at the opposite end of the spectrum, in last place in the conference. The Purple Aces are just 6-21 SU overall and 2-14 in conference play. It is a virtual guarantee at this point that they will be seeded last in the conference tourney. Five straight losses, including 74-69 at Valpo on Monday, have really dampened spirits and I just can’t see how the Evansville players come into this one with any sense of motivation, knowing that a blowout loss is quite likely. 

Meanwhile, it’s the final home game for the Loyola seniors, so they’ll be even more fired up. This is a team that shoots 37.8% from three-point range with Williamson and Norris both over 41%. When they faced Evansville last month, it turned into a bloodbath with the Ramblers making 62.8% of their FG attempts and going 10 of 17 from behind the arc. The final score was 77-48. Following an atypical poor shooting effort Monday at Illinois State (still won 59-50), I expect Loyola to get hot here and never let up. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Xavier (7:00 ET): Providence’s incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. They just came back from 19 down (in the second half!) to stun Butler in overtime this past weekend. That was the Friars’ second OT win in the last three games (sandwiched around a loss to Villanova) and five of their last six wins have been by four points or less. For the season, they are 10-1 SU in games decided by five or less. At 22-3 SU and leading the Big East Conference, Providence obviously deserves to be ranked. But to think that they are a Top 10 team is insanity. My own power ratings have them at #45 in the country and say they are just the sixth best team in the Big East! That’s right in line with what KenPom says. 

Xavier will try and knock off the Friars here. This is a revenge game for the Musketeers as they lost the season’s first meeting 65-62 on a last second three-pointer. Xavier was ranked, but has dropped four of its last five coming into tonight. Two of those losses were by four points or less. Saturday saw them lose at UConn, who is the second best team in the Big East.

Xavier did not shoot the ball well at UConn, making only 38.3% overall and 29.4% from three-point range. Yet HC Travis Steele seemed to think it was a case of his team simply missing open looks. I look for the shots to fall tonight for the Musketeers. Providence has failed to cover three in a row and due to drop a game before the end of the regular season. No team in America has been luckier this year than the Friars. Xavier actually has the better YTD point differential! Take the points. 8* Xavier

8* North Alabama (7:00 ET): Here’s a matchup most normally wouldn’t think of playing, but my power rankings say there’s tremendous value on the home side, who “should” be laying double digits! North Alabama’s ATS record of 8-14-1 obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but Central Arkansas is not a good team at all and has just two road wins all season. It would seem as if we’re getting a really solid value here as North Alabama was a 3.5-point road favorite the first time these teams played. 

Now the Lions lost that first meeting 89-88 after blowing a 10-point halftime lead. They led by seven with under a minute to go in regulation! But somehow they let Central Arkansas make four baskets in the final 50 seconds to force overtime. It’s been “that kind of year” for North Alabama, who now finds itself in last place in the ASun West Division with a 2-12 SU record in conference play. They’ve lost six in a row, however four of those losses were by six points or less and the last two were by a total of seven points. 

It still may feel “risky” to lay points with a team like that, but I assure you that Central Arkansas is very bad. They are my lowest rated team in the entire Atlantic Sun, so it’s a bit shocking to see them with a 6-8 SU conference record. The oddsmakers have not had them favored in a single game this season! It was a 19-point loss that the Bears suffered on Monday (to Liberty). Meanwhile, North Alabama hasn’t played since Saturday, so the schedule sets up nicely for the home team in this one. 8* North Alabama

10* Alabama (9:00 ET): I’m not ready to “give up” on the Crimson Tide just yet, who definitely deserved to stay ranked following Saturday’s tough 90-81 loss at Kentucky. The Tide led that game by 13 in the 1st half, so they were incredibly unfortunate to leave Lexington without at least an ATS win. The loss dropped them into a four-way tie for fifth in the SEC and three full games back of the top four. I believe Bama is a lot closer to those top four teams than they are the rest of the conference pack. Laying just a short number at Vandy on Tuesday, this is a spot where you’ll want to be on Nate Oats’ team. 

Like I mentioned earlier, Bama is still ranked, albeit barely at #25. Both my own personal power ratings and the KenPom ratings have them at #20. I will readily admit that the Crimson Tide have NOT been a good bet in conference play as they are just 2-11 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC this season. But this is an opportunity for them to go on the road and make a statement against a Vandy team that just isn’t anywhere near the same class as Bama, despite being only a game behind in the standings. Among SEC teams, I have the Commodores rated 10th and outside the top 80 in the country. 

The Commies did pick up a win on Saturday, beating Texas A&M 72-67. That was a game where both teams shot very poorly from three-point range, but where Vandy got really lucky was that A&M starters combined for just EIGHT total points in the 1H. I’ve mentioned this with Bama before, but despite very poor three-point shooting this season, they are still averaging more than 80 PPG. Defensively, the game vs. Kentucky exposed some of the issues, but Vanderbilt is not Kentucky. I look for Oats’ team to make a statement tonight that they belong in the Top 25. 10* Alabama

8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Richmond flat out got embarrassed on Friday, losing by 20 at VCU. That was a damaging loss for the Spiders, who are now sixth in the Atlantic 10 standings and four games off the pace of first place Davidson. Coming off a result like that, many are likely to be a bit “gun-shy” about laying the points on the road here, but I’ll note that Richmond was actually even at the half with VCU and this number really speaks volumes about the gap between the top six in the A-10 and everyone else. 

George Washington is actually the seventh place team in the A-10 right now with a 7-6 SU conference record. The Colonials have had themselves a profitable last month or so, going 8-1 ATS their last nine games. But they’ve mainly been beating up on the bottom of the conference, defeating teams such as Fordham, LaSalle, Duquesne and Rhode Island (twice). It’s interesting that all three SU losses in those L9 games came against teams in the top six of the A-10, two of them by double digits (13 at St. Louis and 26 at Dayton).

Prior to things going awry in the 2H at VCU, Richmond had finally been feeling pretty good about itself. They went into Friday having won seven of nine, the two losses coming by a total of five points. I think the Spiders are better than their record and should hit “paydirt” here. The goal down the stretch is getting a top four seed (double bye) for the conference tournament and that is still very attainable. GW was picked to finish 13th this year in the A-10, so they’ve overachieved as of late. Lay the points. 8* Richmond

10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): With the benefit of hindsight, I’m going to look back and realize I faded New Mexico State “a game too soon.” Saturday did not go well for me when I took Grand Canyon as my *10* WAC Game of the Month as they were beaten soundly at home by NMSU, 82-66 (line was GCU -2.5). I thought my reasoning was sound (obviously) as Grand Canyon came into that game at 12-1 SU at home. But it was “not to be” as NMSU came in and outclassed them from the jump, 

But the beauty of this is being able to learn from your mistakes and taking advantage of another opportunity. Such is the case here as I just don’t think NMSU is going to be able to win a second straight difficult road game. This time the opponent is Seattle, whom the Aggies are tied with for first place in the conference (both 12-2 SU). Seattle comes in riding a four-game win streak and is looking to avenge one of its two conference losses as they fell 79-64 as eight-point pups in Las Cruces back on February 5th. That was the last time that the Redhawks lost a game. 

It was a rough shooting night for Seattle back on the 5th as they connected on only 31.9% of their total FG attempts and were 6 of 32 from three-point range. Saturday saw more poor shooting as Seattle sunk just 31.4% of its FG attempts, but this time they were able to still win, 67-64 over Cal Baptist here at home. Fortunately, they were able to dominate in second chance points and took 23 more FG attempts. Should be noted the game before saw Seattle score 102. They average 78.1 PPG for the season at home, where they are 12-1 SU. 10* Seattle U

8* The Citadel (8:00 ET): Samford has been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season, posting the #4 luck rating over at KenPom and posting nine wins by six points or less. Much of that good fortune has come recently as the last four wins have all been by six or less and the Bulldogs have won seven of eight overall. It should also be noted that two of their last four wins have required overtime. The one loss in the last eight games came against the team that they face on Monday and I believe the line for the rematch is inflated. Take the points here. 

It was on February 5th that The Citadel defeated Samford 107-93 as 1-point home underdogs. No, there was no overtime in that game, a battle of “Bulldogs” if you will. Samford scored a season high 53 points in the first half, but that wasn’t enough as The Citadel scored 100+ points in a game for the fourth time this season and got season-highs in points from both Hayden Brown (35) and Jason Roche (29). 

Samford played much better defense on Saturday, holding UNC Greensboro to 49 points on 28.3% shooting. The expectation here will be for revenge, but like I said earlier, the line looks inflated. Plus, you have to factor in just how fortunate Samford has been all season, especially as of late. The Citadel have been held well below their season average of 78.0 points in B2B games and you have to figure another offensive explosion is forthcoming. Prior to winning seven of their last eight, Samford had lost six of seven, so they are inconsistent. It’s not often they are asked to lay this many points, so take advantage. 8* The Citadel

10* Washington State (7:30 ET): Back on Thursday, I faded USC. It was a little bit of a lucky cover by Washington, who trailed by 17 at halftime and was down by as many as 23 in the second half. But I’ll take it. The reason I faded the Trojans in that spot was two-fold. One, they were coming off an upset win over rival UCLA. Two, I happen to think they’re overrated. While no longer off a big win, Southern Cal being overrated (at #17 in the country) still rings true, so I’m gonna grab the points for the second straight time and go against them. 

With apologies to Bill Walton, the Pac 12 is not a particularly deep league this season. Right now, I don’t see more than three teams making the Big Dance. USC is on the right side of the bubble. But the fourth best team in the league, according to my power ratings, is Washington State and the gap between them and the Trojans is not that large. The Cougars have been one of the unluckier teams in the country this season, at least per KenPom, and that’s backed up by their 1-8 SU record in games decided by five points or less. 

I think it’s time for Wazzu to show that it’s better than its record (14-11 SU). Yes, they’ve dropped four in a row. But two of those losses were by a total of six points and the other two were against Arizona and UCLA, who are the class of the conference. The Cougs shot a season-low 28.3% against UCLA on Thursday and will be a lot better offensively tonight. It was a two-point loss when they faced USC back in December. I believe there’s a very good chance of an outright upset here. 10* Washington State

8* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State has not won a game since January 8th and that was against Bethesda (CA), a non-DI team. So why would I be taking them? Well, I believe they are catching New Mexico in a flat spot. Over the last six days, the Lobos have faced Wyoming and Colorado State, two of the top teams in the Mountain West. Both games were at home. They pulled the upset over Wyoming, but were not nearly as fortunate against Colorado State. The Lobos’ road resume leaves a lot to be desired as they are just 2-8 SU this season outside of Albuquerque and giving up 82.6 PPG. 

Furthermore, New Mexico has not played a road game since Feb 5 when it downed Air Force 91-77.  That is their only win outside the state of New Mexico all season. The other road win came on 11/30, against New Mexico State, 101-94. The Lobos are just 1-5  ATS their last six trips here to San Jose. This will be just the second time all year they’ve been a road favorite and first time laying more than one point. 

In the season’s first meeting, New Mexico won 86-70, but it’s difficult for me to see them holding the Spartans to 22.2% shooting from three-point range again. Defense has been a major issue for the Lobos. They just gave up 40+ points in both halves vs. Colorado State. Them laying this many points away from home just seems like a bad idea. San Jose State is not going to want to go winless in conference play for an entire regular season. This is their best shot at a win the rest of the way. Take the points. 8* San Jose State

8* Michigan (1:00 ET): I’ve been “suspicious” about Wisconsin for some time now, not believing they are one of the top 25 teams in America. Give the Badgers credit though for going into Indiana earlier this week and picking up a 74-69 win. They were actually underdogs in that game, despite being the #14 team in the country facing a ranked opponent. Here, they are only a short home favorite and that’s for good reason as Michigan (who is also off a five-point road win) is rated higher in my power ratings. Take the points. 

The Wolverines are looking to make it back to back road wins here as they won at Iowa on Thursday, 84-79 as a five-point dog. That’s an impressive win as Iowa is a top 20 team in my power ratings and better than Wisconsin. But Juwan Howard’s team still enters Sunday firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as they are among the “last four in.” At just 14-10 SU on the year, the Maize and Blue can’t afford too many more losses. They have matched up well with Wisconsin in the past, taking six of the previous eight meetings and sweeping the season series last year. 

The Badgers are among the luckiest teams in the country this season as they are now 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. The other key to their success has been committing the fewest number of turnovers per game in the entire country. But they are still just the EIGHTH highest rated Big 10 team in my power ratings, which speaks volumes. Michigan, who I believe is a fringe Top 25 team despite its record, has played a top four schedule and is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency. 8* Michigan

8* Butler (1:00 ET): I just played against Butler, on Friday, and that went very well as the Bulldogs lost 91-57 at St. John’s. They shot only 34.5% from the field while letting the Red Storm hit a blistering 61.4%. But that was a road game and an atypical final margin when looking through recent Butler results. Prior to that ugly loss, six straight Butler games had been decided by six points or less with five decided by three or less. Last time they were at home, the Bulldogs upset Marquette. I believe they can do the same to what I believe is the most overrated team in America, Providence. 

The Friars got a “taste of their own medicine” back on Tuesday, losing a close one at home to Villanova 89-84. I say “taste of their own medicine” because this team had gone a ridiculous 9-0 SU in games decided by five points or less. Just to give you an idea on my outlook on the Friars, they are not even in the top 40 of my power rankings, despite a 21-3 overall SU record and leading the Big East. I think that after suffering a high-profile loss, they are ripe to be upset here. 

Things fell apart for Butler late in the first half against St. John’s. I expect the team to play much better here after being embarrassed. Bryce Nze did  return to the lineup Friday and played 25 minutes. So that’s a positive. The lingering question now is if Bo Hodges can return here. He’s listed as questionable. With or without him, I expect the upset to be pulled as the Bulldogs were able to stay within seven of Providence (on the road) back on 1/22 despite going 5 of 20 from three-point range and 1 of 4 at the FT line. Take the points. 8* Butler

10* UCSB (10:00 ET): This line should tell you “all you need to know.” Long Beach State, who is in first place in the Big West and on an 11-0 SU/ATS run, is an underdog to UCSB, who is buried in the middle of the conference pack. What gives? Long Beach State has been among the luckiest teams in the country this season while UCSB has been THE unluckiest. This per the KenPom ratings. The Gauchos are my second highest rated team in the Big West (behind UC Irvine, NOT LBSU) and deserved favorites here. 

Long Beach State will be playing its third straight road game and second in three nights here. So they are ripe to be blown out. It’s an incredible run that the Beach has been on when you consider they’ve been the underdog in six of the 11 straight games that they have won, including five of the last eight. They were 4.5-point underdogs when they hosted UCSB earlier in the season. That wound up being a 65-58 final as UCSB played a terrible second half, scoring only 24 points. They finished that game 3 of 15 from three-point range. Expect better tonight. 

UCSB actually led that first meeting by eight at halftime. Another difference was while LBSU was 17 of 17 from the FT line, UCSB was only 9 of 15. These teams have pretty similar FT shooting numbers for the season, so that disparity won’t repeat itself. The Gauchos are holding visiting teams to just 38.1% shooting when here at home (allow only 59.6 PPG). This team is simply much better than its record and tonight is the time they’ll prove that. 10* UCSB

9* Grand Canyon (8:00 ET): It’s a pretty tight race atop the WAC, which is a better league than you may think. I’ve got New Mexico State and Grand Canyon rated as the top two teams, but for the latter, this game is far more important as they are actually tied for fourth in the standings with a 9-4 SU conference record. Tonight is a revenge spot as the Antelopes lost to NMSU 71-61 late last month. But laying just a small number at home, where GCU is 12-1 SU and 7-4 ATS this season, is a great value. 

For starters, Grand Canyon shot very poorly in that first meeting with New Mexico State. Not only did they finish at just 29.5% overall for the game, but they were a horrendous 5 of 32 from three-point range. Expect an obvious improvement in shooting here at home where their three-point percentage for the season is hovering near 40%. It’s actually a pretty raucous crowd that GCU plays in front of at home and they’ve rewarded fans by outscoring opponents by 19.3 PPG here this season. Also, don’t discount the defense, which limits teams to 38.4% shooting (that’s all games). 

New Mexico State is typically the standard-bearer in this conference and sure enough they are currently in first with an 11-2 record. But I think the Aggies have been a bit lucky this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by six or less. I’ll definitely be looking to fade them down the stretch. Their last time on the road resulted in a loss to Utah Valley State as a three-point favorite. This game is absolutely crucial to Grand Canyon’s chances of getting a top two seed in the WAC Tournament (and a double bye). I love this spot for them. 9* Grand Canyon

8* Florida State (6:00 ET): Duke, who is the only ranked team in the ACC right now (#9), probably feels pretty good about its chances of being alone in first place by the end of Saturday. Notre Dame, who they are tied with, is a six-point underdog at Wake Forest earlier in the day. Here, the Blue Devils are big double digit favorites, at home. But I think it’s a good time to step in and fade as Florida State is certainly about due to cover the spread. The Seminoles are a shocking 0-7 ATS their L7 games entering tonight. 

At least FSU was able to get back into the win column earlier this week, albeit by the slimmest of possible margins. They beat Clemson 81-80, which snapped a six-game SU skid. Unfortunately for ‘Noles backers, they were laying 1.5. The big issue for this team right now is injuries as three starters have gone down since FSU upset Duke 79-78 as five-point underdogs in Tallahassee back on January 18th. But the Noles are still competing. Only the loss to North Carolina last Saturday exceeds tonight’s spread. 

Duke is also off a last second win, 76-74 over Wake Forest, where they played without Coach K on the bench for the second half. The Hall of Famer had to leave due to illness and his status (for coaching today’s game) remains up in the air. That makes it difficult to prepare and with a three-game road trip upcoming (starting with another revenge spot, against Virginia), I’m not sure “all eyes” are on this game from the Duke perspective. FSU won the first meeting despite shooting only 35.6% overall and 7 of 25 from 3-point range. They won’t be blown out here. 8* Florida State

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I faded Miss State. That proved to be a mistake as the Bulldogs just barely stayed within the number at Alabama, losing by only five. But they probably don’t care too much about that down in Starkville as the team is still on a four-game SU losing streak. All four of those losses came to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 of my power ratings (Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU & Bama). The SEC is tough! But tonight’s opponent, Missouri, is anything but. This is a “get well” game for the home team.

Mizzou just got thrashed by Arkansas on Tuesday, losing by 19 points.That was the deficit at halftime, so the game was never really close. The big problem for the Tigers is that they lack a true point guard and opponents are taking advantage by forcing a lot of turnovers. They are 239th in the country in assist to turnover ratio and that’s played a big role in them sitting near the bottom of the SEC standings. Only Ole Miss and Georgia currently sit below. Two of the Tigers’ SEC wins have come against Ole Miss.

This will be the first of two meetings in three days between these teams. As hosts for the first one, I expect Miss State to come out “smelling blood in the water.” They led Alabama in the second half on Wednesday. That was after a second half rally fell short at LSU. The Bulldogs played Arkansas and Tennessee tough as well. Like I said earlier, this is a “get well” game and it’s against a Missouri team they’ve beaten four straight. 8* Mississippi State

10* Marist (7:00 ET): Marist is the better team here. Siena has been incredibly lucky this season with the second highest “luck rating” over at KenPom (trailing only Providence). The Saints’ good fortune has continued recently with three consecutive upset victories - over Fairfield, Iona (MAAC leader) and Rider. This run has them squarely in second in the conference (with a 9-4 SU record), but my own power ratings indicate this is anything but the second best team in the MAAC. It’s time for them to suffer a loss. 

Marist is also coming into Friday riding a three-game win streak. The Red Foxes have beaten Monmouth (83-58 on the road!), Canisius (71-70) and Niagara (77-70). The last two wins were at home, but Marist has more than held its own on the road this season. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when the total is 130 to 134.5. Tonight is also a revenge game for the Red Foxes, who lost at home to Siena, 67-60 as four-point favorites back on January 14th. They will be highly motivated for this one. 

Siena needed OT to get by Rider on Sunday in what was a revenge spot for them. The Saints scored 40 first-half points in that one, a season-high. I would not expect a repeat of that; after all this is a team that is averaging less than THIRTY points in the first half over the course of the season. They rank outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency! Meanwhile, Marist has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country per KenPom (343rd in luck rating) and has gone 3-7 SU in games decided by six pts or less. It’s time for the luck to turn for these two teams! 10* Marist

8* St. John’s (5:00 ET): Butler has played nothing but close games recently with each of their six contests decided by six points or less. Five of them were decided by three points or less! The Bulldogs ended up going 3-3 SU in those six games as they are off B2B upset wins over Marquette and DePaul. But it’s tough for me to forecast a third consecutive upset win here as you’ve got to question what the team has “left in the tank” after such a rash of close contests. Also, Butler may still be without starters Hodges and Nze. 

St. John’s is off one of its most impressive wins of the season, beating Xavier 86-73 on the road as a 7.5-point dog. The Red Storm seem to have turned it around a bit after a rocky first half of the season. They’ve won three of five, the only losses coming to Villanova and UConn, who I have rated as the two best teams in the Big East. Leading scorer Julian Champagnie had 27 points in the win over Marquette on Wednesday and the team shot better than 50% for the seventh time this season. 

This is the second time Butler and St. John’s are meeting this month. The Johnnies won the first meeting, on the road, 75-72 despite shooting just 2 of 16 from three-point range. You’ve got to imagine they’ll shoot better than that here. Meanwhile, I don’t see Butler matching its 51.8% shooting from that game as they are averaging only 60.1 PPG on the road while shooting 40.1% overall and 29% from three-point range. This should be a double digit win for the home team. 8* St. John’s

8* Washington (11:30 ET): This is a good spot to fade USC, who I don’t think is the 17th best team in the country anyway. The Trojans are coming off a huge win last week, 67-64 over rival USC, and even with a few days off won’t be able to match the intensity from that game. As I already mentioned, the Trojans are a bit overrated as they aren’t in the top 25 of my own power ratings or at KenPom. 

The fact USC was able to beat UCLA, despite not having leading scorer (and rebounder) Isaiah Mobley was a minor miracle. Also, their second leading scorer Boogie Ellis did not have a single point! Mobley is expected back for this game, but may struggle in recovering from a concussion. I certainly can’t see Drew Peterson matching his career day that happened against the Bruins. It should be noted that USC has failed to cover each of the last four times its has been favored.

The final score (92-68) says Washington got rocked in its last game (by Arizona), but they actually led by 14 early in the game and that was without starting guard Daejon Davis. Davis, like Mobley for USC, is expected back tonight. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country, so there’s no shame in losing to them. Believe it or not, the Huskies are just a game behind UCLA in the conference standings entering tonight. Take the points. 8* Washington

8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Murray State has worked its way into the rankings (#21) with a 21-2 SU overall record and 14-game win streak. The Racers are one of three teams in the country (South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the others) with zero conference losses. They are the top ranked mid-major obviously. Do I think Murray State is the 21st best team in the country? In a word, no. My own power ratings have them just outside the top 50. So now is probably as good a time as any to fade them, especially since we are getting such a big number here. 

Austin Peay is the opponent Thursday night. The Governors are not having the best season (10-14 SU overall) but do come into this game on a three-game win streak. They are 6-8 in conference play, but five of those losses have been to the top three teams (Murray St, Belmont, Morehead State) and two of the other three were by four points or less. The first game vs. Murray State, which was exactly two weeks ago, ended up as a 12-point loss at home but Austin Peay only trailed by four at the half. 

What I like about the situation here for AP is that Murray State is coming off a close call, a 57-53 win at Morehead State last Saturday, which saw them trail most of the way and shoot very poorly. The Racers didn’t take the lead until the final two minutes of that game. Again, with the number (ranking) attached to their name, they become overvalued by the public/oddsmakers alike. Austin Peay can play good defense and keep this one close. 8* Austin Peay

10* Towson (6:00 ET): OK, so this is probably the biggest game in the CAA so far this season. UNC Wilmington, who no one pegged to win this thing, has been in first place almost the entire way. I’ve gone through the Seahawks’ remarkable overachievement previously and will double back to it in a moment. Towson, who lost at home to UNCW earlier in the season, is just one back in the loss column (two in the win) entering tonight’s contest. The result is huge for the Tigers and I believe they are deserved favorites in this one. 

Incredibly, UNCW has won seven games this year in which they faced a double digit deficit. Not only that, four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half! On Monday, when I successfully faded them (as DD favorites), the Seahawks needed overtime to outlast William & Mary, who is probably the worst team in the conference. UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. Not only are they 3-0 in overtime games this season, they are 9-2 SU when the final margin is six points or less. This has been one of the “luckiest” teams in the country thus far. 

Towson is one of FIVE teams in the CAA that are rated ahead of UNCW in my own power ratings. In fact, Towson is the top CAA team in those same ratings. They’ve won 10 of 12 (both losses by 5 pts or less) and are coming off a 36-point smashing of Elon last Saturday. While UNCW was in action Monday, Towson has been off for four days. The spot favors them, they are the better team and have revenge. What’s not to like? The Tigers are also 21-8 ATS L29 road games (10-2 this year). 10* Towson

8* Gardner Webb (7:00 ET): I’ve got Gardner Webb rated as the best team in the Big South this year, better than either of the two division leaders: Longwood and Winthrop. Tonight’s game presents an opportunity for the “Runnin’ Bulldogs” to even up the score with Winthrop, for a two-point loss they suffered last month (they led that game by seven at halftime). A win here would also pull Gardner-Webb into a first place tie in the Big South’s South Division. So it’s a really important game and I expect the home team to deliver. 

Winthrop has a poor ATS record this season (6-15 overall), but has also managed to be one of the luckier teams in the country. The Eagles are 15-8 straight up, but have only outscored opponents by 1.5 points per game. Including the aforementioned win over Gardner-Webb, Winthrop is an extremely 8-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. They are 9-0 SU at home, but only 6-8 SU (3-10 ATS) when on the road or at a neutral site. 

Given all the luck in close games and the poor ATS record, you would be correct in guessing Winthrop has a pretty terrible ATS record when favored. You would be correct as the Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in the chalk role. They are NOT favored tonight, nor should they be, as Gardner-Webb comes in hot with six consecutive victories - all by six points or greater - and they ran away with an 82-65 win over Charleston Southern on Saturday. Meanwhile, Winthrop is off another close win (65-61 over Presbyterian) and ripe to be “shown the door.” 8* Gardner Webb

8* Alabama (7:00 ET): Alabama blew the cover for me on Saturday, but at least the fans in Tuscaloosa left happy as the Crimson Tide hung on for a key 68-67 win over Arkansas. That win got the Tide back in the Top 25. For a while now, I’ve been pretty adamant that this team is better than its record and absolutely deserves not just to be ranked, but ranked higher. They have beaten three of last year’s Final Four teams (Houston, Gonzaga, Baylor) and faced the #1 strength of schedule in the entire country! 

Tonight, on ESPN2, the Tide hosts Mississippi State. This is a big revenge game as Bama lost 78-76 in Starkville last month. Alabama led that game by four at the break, held Miss St to 2 of 16 shooting from three-point range and yet still somehow lost. One thing seems to be certain though; Alabama definitely knows how to defend the three-point line when facing the Bulldogs. In the previous three head to head matchups, they’ve held them to 4 of 47 (8.5%!) from behind the arc! That’s insane. 

At the same time, as I’ve said before, Alabama’s own three-point shooting should start to improve. Somehow they are hitting just 27.1% from three at home this season. They were right around that number at Starkville last month. I just feel that Nate Oats’ team is set to go on a major run here at the end of the regular season and with Kentucky (on the road) looming, the Tide can’t afford a letdown here. They led Arkansas by as many as 13 in the second half Saturday. Look for the win and cover this time. 8* Alabama

8* UMass (7:00 ET): I think that this is a great spot to fade St. Bonaventure, who is coming off B2B big wins over St. Louis. I had the Bonnies on Friday when they went to St. Louis and recorded a 68-61 win as an underdog. Then they beat the Billikens 83-79 at home on Monday (as two-point favorites). A third game in six days, laying double digits, seems like a pretty rough spot for the Bonnies, so I’ll play accordingly and take the points. 

UMass was able to pull out a two-point victory over St. Joe’s on Saturday. Unfortunately, they just missed out on the covering as they were three-point favorites. Two late free throws sealed the game. Honestly, the Minutemen should just be thrilled that they won considering second leading scorer Rich Kelly was held to only three points. It was also a nice bounce back after losing outright, as eight-point chalk, to GW the previous game. 

There’s a gap between the top six and everyone else in the A-10 and these teams are on opposite sides. But UMass has the scheduling edge coming into this game having not played since Saturday. The Minutemen have actually won their last two road games, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island.I can’t see the Bonnies matching their shooting from the last two games vs. St. Louis (they were close to 52% overall) and it’s worrisome they just allowed the Billikens to make 56.8% from the field on Monday. 8* UMass

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): I successfully faded Wisconsin over the weekend and will look to do the same again tonight. As I said before Saturday’s game vs. Rutgers, I don’t think the Badgers are quite Top 25 worthy, let alone Top 15. Despite being off to their best start in five years (19-5 SU overall) and just one game off the lead in the Big 10 title race, my power ratings have them as the EIGHTH best team in the conference. One of the seven above them is tonight’s opponent and - given the line - it looks like the oddsmakers agree. 

Indiana is three games back of Wisconsin, both in terms of overall and conference record. But, even at home, it speaks volumes that they are favorites over the #15 ranked team in the country. That’s even on a three-game losing streak. Saturday saw the Hoosiers lose up at Michigan State, 76-61 as four-point dogs. They did not shoot the basketball well (33.9% overall from the field). But this is a much different team at home where they are 13-2 SU and shooting 47.1% 

Also key here is that IU is holding the opposition to a 36.3 FG% when playing here in Bloomington. Honestly, that’s not far off from their overall season average as this is a top 20 team in adjusted defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is a top 10 team in the “luck” rating over at KenPom as they are an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. I believe the Badgers’ luck will “run out” down the stretch. At home and on a three-game losing streak, you KNOW that Indiana is going to be highly motivated tonight. 10* Indiana

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to move up a spot or two in the polls when they are released later today. Currently ranked #8 in the country, that sounds about right for Bill Self’s team. It was a narrow escape vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, a two point win as 10.5-point favorites. The Jayhawks trailed for much of the game before a 15-2 second half run gave them the lead for good. Still, this team is only 2-6 ATS its last eight games and was a SU loser last Monday (at Texas). I’m taking the points here. 

Oklahoma State rolled to an impressive win on Saturday by blowing out West Virginia 81-58. While that was just the second win over the last seven games for the Cowboys, four of the five losses were by five points or less. It’s been a tough season in Stillwater, with a self-imposed NCAA Tournament ban. But playing on national television tonight should lead to an inspired effort, especially off the big win. 

The last time these teams played (Jan 4) Kansas won 74-63 despite missing 19 consecutive shots at one point. It was a tie game going into halftime. With OSU holding teams to just 40% shooting for the year, I think they still in this one from start to finish. Kansas is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest in between games. 8* Oklahoma State