10* Boston (9:00 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the Celtics, who are back at home and facing elimination.  This will be the fourth time the team has faced elimination this postseason and obviously they have gone 3-0 the previous three times. They are 3-0 ATS in those three wins as well, two of them coming on the road, including a Game 7 in Miami. (Also beat Milwaukee in Games 6 and 7 in the Conference Semis). This will be the 1st time in the postseason where the C’s are off B2B SU losses as prior to losing Game 5, they had been 7-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss. I can’t see them losing at home in this spot, so lay the points. 

There have been five times in this postseason run that Boston has found itself down in the series. All five times they won and covered the spread. This is the first time in the NBA Finals that they’ve been behind in the series. One could argue that they should have won both prior games here at home. They cruised to a 116-100 victory in Game 3, then led most of the way in Game 4 (before falling apart down the stretch). You have to anticipate that the Celtics will shoot better than 41.3%, which is where they finished in Game 5. They were also a series-worst 11 of 32 from three-point range (34.4%). 

Going into Game 5, the Celtics were 10-2 ATS this season when off a double digit defeat. They’ve been held under 100 points in back to back games, which is something that I can’t see happening again. Now, with the Warriors having gone 9 of 40 from three-point range in the last game (including 0 of 9 from Steph Curry), Boston will have to be prepared for Golden State to score more as well. But I think they’re up for the challenge and while the Dubs are very likely to shoot better than 22.5% from behind the arc, they may not hit 46.6% overall (a series high) like they did in Game 5. Golden State is just 2-6 ATS its L8 road games. 10* Boston

8* Over Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): This is the lowest O/U line of the series yet and furthermore it’s also the lowest O/U line for any Warriors’ game this postseason. Furthermore, there were only five regular season games involving the Dubs with an O/U line of 210.5 or lower. Three of those five went Over. Game 5 saw the teams combine to shoot a horrendous 20 of 72 from three-point range (27%) while Golden State going an uncharacteristic 9 for 40 and Steph Curry going 0 for 9. The Celtics also missed 10 free throws and shot just 41.3% overall from the field. Yet there were still 198 total points scored. 

You have to presume that we’re going to see better shooting tonight. Therefore, Over looks like the smart play when it comes to the total. Golden State, Curry especially, will be better from three-point range, for sure. Game 5 was the first time in Curry’s career that he failed to make a single three in a playoff game. Since coming into the league, he’s shot 46% from beyond the arc and averaged 4.4 makes per game, coming off a game where he failed to make a three. The last time he failed to make three threes in a game was Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. He responded by hitting six in the 1Q of Game 1 in this series. 

It wasn’t just Curry. The four Warriors’ starters not named “Klay Thompson” went a combined 0 for 19 from behind the arc in Game 5. That will not happen again. Similarly, I can’t see Boston being held under 100 points for a third consecutive contest. That’s happened only once to them all season and it was back in November. The last three times they’ve been off B2B losses, they’ve averaged 114.3 PPG. Here at home in Game 3, they scored 116. Golden State isn’t nearly as stout defensively on the road as they are at home. They give up six more points per game on the road compared to the Chase Center. 8* Over Warriors/Celtics

10* Boston (9:00 ET): I’m still a believer in Boston winning this series, so taking the points in Game 5 seems like the logical call. The Celtics still sport the higher net efficiency rating in the playoffs, even after losing Game 4. They’ve outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions while Golden State is at just 3.9. While Game 4 was at home, remember that the Celtics did lead most of the way, until falling prey to a Steph Curry fourth quarter barrage. The Warriors are only averaging 103.5 PPG against Boston in six meetings this year. I just think taking the points is the way to go here. 

Of course, supporting a play on the Celtics here is the fact they have yet to suffer B2B losses in the playoffs. Since sweeping Brooklyn, they’ve gone a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss and five of those seven wins have been by double digits. Only one, Game 7 vs. Miami, was by fewer than eight points. Going back even further, the Celtics are 15-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss.

Boston had too many turnovers in Game 4. It’s something we’ve seen from them before in these playoffs and it usually ends in defeat. But the good news is that they almost always clean up the “turnover bug” the next game. The Celtics also shot just 40% from the field in Game 4, a number they will improve upon Monday night. They continue to shoot well from three; it was a disappointing 19 of 47 from inside the arc that cost them in the last game. This team is 33-17-2 ATS on the road. 10* Boston

10* Boston (9:00 ET): We know that the Celtics have yet to lose B2B games this postseason. They’re now 7-0 SU/ATS following a loss after downing the Warriors 116-100 Wednesday night in Game 3. That win also puts them up 2-1 in the NBA Finals. If Boston is to win the NBA Championship, I think tonight's game is of critical importance. If they don’t win here, then they’re going to have to win again at Golden State, which is not easy to do. As I said at the outset of the series (I had Boston in Game 1), I feel the Celtics have been the better team all season - posting a better scoring differential and net efficiency rating than the Warriors. I’m laying the points in Game 4.

The fact that Boston is up in the series despite Steph Curry averaging more than 30 PPG is a positive sign, in my view. Curry is now banged up, with an unspecified injury that he suffered near the end of Game 3. He’s vowed to play tonight, but will he be at 100 percent? The last three games have been the best stretch of three-point shooting from Curry in the playoffs and my gut tells me that he was “due” for an off-night anyways. Remember how good Boston is defensively; they were #1 in scoring defense during the regular season and have been even stingier in the playoffs, allowing only 101.6 PPG. In five meetings with the Celtics this season, Golden State has only averaged 102.8 PPG.

The Warriors’ defense isn’t nearly as good on the road as it is at home and we saw them let the Celtics shoot 48.3% from the floor in Game 3. Boston has also made 49 threes in three games, shooting 43% from behind the arc. Golden State has been pretty similar, but was expected to be ahead in that department and, as I said earlier, I believe Curry is set to regress. The Warriors, surprisingly, are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They’ve lost four of the last five outright. 10* Boston

10* Under Warriors/Celtics (9:00 ET): As the series moves to Beantown, let’s stick with the Under (which was a winner for me in Game 2). As I expected, the Celtics could not match their level of three-point shooting from Game 1 (when they went 21 of 41 - 51%) as they dropped off, but only down to 40.5% (as they were 15 of 37). The key was they were only 15 of 43 on two-point attempts, which is only 34.8% (very bad). Outside of Jayson Tatum (who was the only Celtic NOT to shoot well in Game 1), the rest of the team went a combined 22 of 61 from the field and 9 of 28 from three-point range. 

Overall though, three-point shooting has been pretty good (from both teams) in the first two games. Golden State is north of 40 percent while Boston is north of 45 percent. I expect those percentages to drop. We are talking about arguably the two best defensive teams from the regular season. Boston was #1 in points per game allowed (GSW #3). Golden State was #1 in defensive efficiency (Bos #2). Here in the playoffs, the Celtics have been even stingier (101.6 PPG allowed) and off a loss they’ve allowed more than 102 just once in six tries. For the year, the Celtics are allowing just 101.7 PPG off a SU loss.

The teams are now a combined 22-6 Under when playing on exactly two days rest, which (like Game 2) is the situation again here. Consider that even with 30 made threes in Game 2 (both teams were 15 of 37) and a 61 total pts in the 1Q, the teams still ended up combining for only 195 points in Game 2. We may very well see more than that here in Game 3. But still not enough to send this one Over. The Warriors had 33 points off turnovers in the win Sunday and that’s simply not going to happen again. Off a loss, Boston has decreased its number of turnovers every time in the playoffs. 10* Under Warriors/Celtics

10* Under Celtics/Warriors (8:05 ET): Game 1 saw a dramatic turn of events in the fourth quarter where Boston outscored Golden State 40-16, turning a 12-point deficit into a 12-point win. The Celtics finished the game north of 50% from the field and would have been even better if not for an awful display from Jayson Tatum (who was 3 for 17). The team also shot a blistering 51.2% from three-point range (21 of 41), something I don’t think we’ll see again, at least not in Game 2. 

It was the Warriors that got off to the hot START in Game 1, specifically Steph Curry, who was 6 for 8 from three-point range in the first quarter alone! Again, don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that. Curry finished the game with 34 points, above his projection, but considering he had 21 points after 1Q, I think it’s fair to say the Celtics’ defense was able to slow him down. I’d also be a bit surprised if the Warriors hit 19 threes again, as a team, like they did in Game 1. I think you can all tell where I’m going with this pick. 

These were the two top teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Boston also led in scoring defense. The Celtics have given up fewer points per game in the playoffs (101.4) while the Warriors typically do a much better job defending at home (103.1 PPG allowed) vs. on the road (109.0). Even if Tatum improves (he likely will), the Celtics won’t be getting a combined 47 points again from Al Horford and Derrick White. Boston is 11-3 Under this season playing on exactly two days rest while Golden State is 9-3 Under in the same situation. 10* Under Celtics/Warriors

10* Boston (9:05 ET): Looking at the respective seasons, I think the Celtics are better than the Warriors. The numbers bear this out, not just for the playoffs, but the regular season as well. In the regular season, Boston had the better net efficiency rating (+8.1 vs. +6.6) while in the playoffs, that advantage is now +6.6 to +5.2. Taking that into careful consideration and the fact that the public seems OVERWHELMINGLY in favor of the Warriors here, I’ll be taking the points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. 

These were the top two teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Boston was #1 in scoring defense. In the playoffs, giving up just 101 PPG, the Celtics have moved well past the Warriors in terms of defensive efficiency. I also think that Boston had the far tougher path to get here, ousting Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Phoenix while GS only had to get past Denver, Memphis and Dallas. The fact that Boston is coming off a seven-game series is mitigated by the fact they haven’t had to play since Sunday, giving them three days off. 

The Celtics have been true “road warriors” this season, going 32-16 ATS away from home. They are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs in these playoffs. In the two regular season matchups, these teams each won on the other’s floor. I know that the Warriors have the flashier offense, more star power and the home court advantage. But I believe that the Celtics are the better team here and the public isn’t really clued into it. Boston is actually 7-3 straight up the previous 10 meetings with Golden State and I look for them to do the job defensively on Steph Curry in Game 1. 10* Boston

10* Under Celtics/Heat (8:30 ET): Historically, Game 7’s tend to go Under. Since 2003, the Under has hit in nearly 65% of all Game 7s. Many were not expecting the Eastern Conference Finals to reach a Game 7. Not after the Celtics bludgeoned the Heat in Games 4 and 5 (both of those stayed Under), then were heading back home for Game 6. But Miami had other ideas, pulling the upset Friday, 111-103 as an eight-point underdog. This will be, predictably, the lowest O/U for any game of the series. I’m still going Under. 

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season, giving up just 104.1 points per game. They’ve bested that average here in the postseason, allowing only 101.3, including just 96.8 in the last five games. They held Miami to just 82 and 80 points in Games 4 and 5 with the Heat starters combining to score a paltry 60 points (total!) in those two games. There was no way the Heat weren’t going to improve their shooting in Game 6 and Jimmy Butler was a man on a mission, scoring 47 points himself. I don’t see that happening again though. Nor do I see a combined 56 free throws being attempted in Game 7. That’s how many were attempted in Game 6 with 52 being made. Refs tend to “swallow their whistles” in Game 7s. 

Miami is also a defensive force, giving up only 100.4 PPG in the playoffs. Boston has hit its season average (111 PPG) only once in this series. This series has been higher-scoring than anticipated, but on Sunday night we’re going to get a real slugfest. Expect fewer possessions, more defensive intensity and less fouls called. 10* Under Celtics/Heat

10* Miami (8:30 ET): The Heat cannot possibly play any worse than they have the last two games, right? They’ve averaged just 81 points in a pair of double digit losses, the last one coming at home and leaving them in a situation where they now need to beat the Celtics two straight. I would be shocked if the Heat came back to win this series as - coming in - I felt Boston was the deserved favorite. But this is too many to pass up with a Miami team that’s 19-8 ATS as an underdog and playing for its season. In a game that’s expected to be low-scoring, taking the points just seems like the way to go. 

Miami made just 31.9% of its field goal attempts in Game 5 and was 7 of 45 from three-point range! Needless to say, you should expect their shooting to improve. There’s room for improvement from their entire starting five, which collectively has scored a pathetic 60 points (total!) the L2 games. In particular, look to Max Strus, who has somehow gone 0 for 16 from the field, 11 of those misses coming from three-point range. Then you have Kyle Lowry, who was 0 for 6 in the last game and Victor Oladipo, who was 1 for 7. Jimmy Butler was 4 for 18 in Game 5 and has scored just 27 points the L3 games. Someone on this team HAS to step up! 

The Heat were winning at halftime in Game 5, 42-37. Then the wheels came off, similar to what happened for Boston in Game 1. Though no game in the series has been particularly close (only one decided by single digits), this is the largest spread we’ve seen. I don’t expect Miami to simply “roll over” as they are 7-1 ATS the L8 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. Also, there have been only two times that the Heat have lost three straight games this year. Once was before Thanksgiving, the other was a four-game slide in late March. Since the start of April, they’ve lost B2B games only once. That was the last round vs. Philadelphia and they responded by crushing the Sixers 120-85 in the next game. 10* Miami

10* Boston (8:30 ET): This has been a curious Eastern Conference Finals with the first four games all being blowouts. Each game of the series has seen a lead of at least 20 points. In Game 4, it was Boston’s turn as they jumped out to an 18-1 lead and never looked back. Miami missed its first 14 field goal attempts and its one point through eight minutes was the fewest in any playoff game in the L25 years. The Celtics were up 29-11 at the end of the first quarter and stretched their lead to 27 in the second and 32 in the third. The game was essentially over by halftime. Boston is now 5-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss this postseason.

It would be easy to say “now it’s the Heat’s turn” as the series goes back to Miami for Game 5. The “Zig Zag Theory” has been in full force in this series and the Heat have only lost once at home (Game 2) this postseason. But let’s not forget a few things. Boston, despite not having the home court advantage, was the favorite coming into this series. They also had the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. They’ve been the team up at the half in three of the four games. If not for the third quarter meltdown, the Celtics would be up three games to one. It is my view that the Celtics are the better team and the oddsmakers seem to agree by installing them as Game 5 favorites. 

Miami had six players listed as questionable going into Game 4. Most ended up playing, but the starting five combined for only 18 points, the fewest in a playoff game going back to 1970-71. Obviously that number will go up tonight, but don’t expect the Heat’s bench to score anywhere close to 64 points again. If anything, the point totals from the starting five and reserves may simply reverse. Also, don’t expect Boston to shoot only 23.5% from three again. That they won Game 4 by 20 points, despite being -18 from three-point range is pretty amazing. Right now, the Celtics’ net efficiency rating in the playoffs is several points higher than Miami’s. Look for them to justify being favored in this spot as they take a 3-2 series lead. 10* Boston

10* Dallas (9:00 ET): While the Mavericks are down 3-0 in the series and have lost the three games by a combined 43 points, things have actually been more competitive than they seem. The Mavs led Game 2 at the half and were only down one at the half in Game 3. They turned in the defensive effort I expected in the last game, holding Golden State to “just” 46.1% shooting after letting them shoot 56.1% in the first two games. Problem was that the Mavs only shot 40% themselves in Game 3, including a woeful 13 of 45 from three-point range. Take Luka Doncic (40 points) out of the equation and the Mavs’ offensive numbers from Game 3 get real ugly. With the season on the line, at home, I expect better tonight. 

Three Mavericks, Doncic plus Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, combined for 86 of the team’s 100 points on Sunday. I’m expecting a more balanced effort tonight as the Mavs look to keep their season going. I’m pretty confident that we’ll be getting another strong effort at the defensive end as they are #1 in the league at home in scoring defense, allowing only 101.1 PPG. The three-point shooting is where the Mavs should really improve tonight. They hit 35% from downtown for the year, but have been well below that mark in two of the first three games of this series. 

This is just the third time all season that Dallas has been on a three-game losing streak. They have won and covered in the previous two spots, both of which came before X-Mas. Furthermore, the team has gone 19-5 ATS this season following a game where it scored 100 points or less. All signs point to improvement at the offensive end from the Mavs and given their season-long defensive prowess, I do think they get the win they need tonight. Golden State has failed to win both potential close out games on the road this postseason (allowed 130 PPG), including a 39-point loss in Memphis. 10* Dallas

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): I thought for sure that I had the Under cashed in Game 3 of this series. With 48 seconds remaining, the Heat were up 100-94. The total was 208.5. Stranger things have certainly happened, but you don’t normally see 15+ points scored over the final 48 seconds. Well, Game 3 saw 18 as there were a couple technical fouls plus Boston kept making “garbage time” threes. The Over is now 3-0 in this series, which is not what most were expecting and going back to 2020, the teams are 8-0-1 Over when facing each other in the Conference Finals. Don’t you think it’s time for an Under? 

There’s a good chance Miami enters Game 4 shorthanded as six players (Lowry, Tucker, Herro, Strus, Vincent and Butler) are all listed as questionable. Though they won despite him leaving Game 3 early, Butler not playing would be significant as he’s been the unquestioned “go to guy” for the Heat at the offensive end in these playoffs. Butler is averaging nearly 30 PPG in the postseason. Bam Adebayo scored 31 in Game 3. Though he should again rack up some good stats, especially if multiple teammates are out, Adebayo isn’t likely to match his Game 3 scoring output as he scored only 16 in the first two games combined. 

I can’t see Jaylen Brown scoring 40 again for the Celtics either. His previous playoff high was 30. A big key in this series is that we’ve seen high-scoring first halves. The team with the lead at the half (Boston twice) has scored at least 62 points. I don’t anticipate that being the case in Game 4 as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and neither allows more than 53.2 per game in the 1H for the year. So look for the scoring to (finally) slow down as Boston is 12-6 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): The expectation was that the Eastern Conference Finals would be pretty low-scoring. After all, Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 PPG) during the regular season and has been even stingier in the playoffs (103.1 PPG allowed). Not to be overlooked is the fact the Under was 8-2-1 in Miami playoff games in Rounds 1 and 2 with them turning in the second best defensive efficiency rating during that time. The Heat have allowed an average of just 100.5 PPG in the postseason. That’s even after the first two games saw way more points scored than what was expected. 

With these two teams combining to go 14-0 Over in their L14 Conference Finals games, I think that it’s time to go “the other way” here in Game 3. Boston shot 51% in Game 2 and made 20 threes, numbers they probably can’t hope to match tonight. For a frame of reference, the Celtics shot 45.6% in Game 1 and made only 11 threes. Save for the third quarter of Game 1, they really have looked like the better team in this series. That dubious third quarter is the only quarter in the two games where the Celtics were outscored. (Teams were even in the third and fourth in Game 2). I just don’t think we’re going to see the same amount of scoring from Boston, especially in the first half, tonight. 

Miami shot just 29.4% from three-point range in the last game. They’ll likely improve from that, but not by enough to affect the total. I expect this game to be played at a slower pace. The Celtics have allowed 103 points or fewer in six of their last nine games. The Heat have allowed 103 or less in 7 of their last 10 games. I think for tonight, the winning team may only need 100. Miami has not allowed 100+ points in three straight games during these playoffs. This is the highest O/U line of the series. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Boston (8:30 ET): The Celtics had the scoring edge in three of the four quarters Tuesday night. Problem is they got annihilated in the third, getting outscored 39-14 by the Heat. While Boston may not get out to the same hot start we saw in Game 1 (62 points in the first half), I do like them to bounce back and at least cover the number here in Game 2. The status of both Marcus Smart and Al Horford remain in question for tonight, but Smart has been upgraded to probable. Regardless, without those two players, Boston looked like the better team for 75% of Game 1. Take the points. 

It was Jimmy Butler (41 points) again bailing out the Heat in Game 1. He was 17 of 18 from the free throw line though, which I don’t think can be repeated here. The Heat could be missing both Max Straus and Gabe Vincent, in addition to Kyle Lowry (out) tonight. I know that this team is undefeated at home in the postseason (7-0 SU) with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. But Boston is 3-0 ATS this postseason when down in the series and has not lost B2B games since the end of March. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS following a double digit loss this season and outscoring opponents by 8.4 PPG when off an ATS loss. 

The Celtics had some expected three-point regression in Game 1, but what was surprising was the fact they allowed 118 points. This was the #1 scoring defense in the NBA during the regular season. In its previous seven games, Miami had topped 108 only twice. The probable return of Smart, the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year, should certainly help at that end of the floor, especially when it comes to containing Butler. Even if Smart can’t go, Butler has only averaged 21.5 PPG off his two previous 40+ point efforts this postseason. There’s no rest advantage this time for Miami. 10* Boston

10* Under Mavs/Warriors (9:00 ET): Dallas stunned the basketball world with its 33-point Game 7 victory at Phoenix Sunday night. They allowed just 27 first half points and 50 through three quarters! So while this team has been notably better at home on the defensive end, it would be foolish to discount what they can do on the road. Golden State is also a team that’s underrated defensively. They allow only 103.1 PPG at home (2nd lowest, only trailing Dallas) and also finished the regular season #1 in defensive efficiency. Something else that must be considered when handicapping this series is that Dallas plays at an incredibly slow pace (last in tempo during the regular season). I’m on the Under in Game 1. 

Over its last five games vs. Memphis, the Warriors only averaged 109.8 points and that was with the 142-point explosion in Game 3. Dallas will easily be the best defensive team that the Warriors have faced this postseason as the Nuggets and Grizzlies ended up 15th and 12th in scoring defense. The Mavs allowed just 96.2 PPG the L5 games and 101.9 for the entire playoffs. This despite facing the team that tied for the regular season lead in offensive efficiency (Utah) and a top five scoring offense (Phoenix). Back to tempo, Dallas is playing even slower than they did in the regular season. Obviously, they’re going to look to slow these games vs. the Warriors to a “snail’s pace.”

While I expect the Dallas defense to shine tonight, do not look for the team to shoot 56.8% from the field again as it did in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. In three of its last four home games, Golden State has allowed fewer than 100 points. Luka Doncic is coming off a monster series (32.6 PPG), but I do not expect him to find that same kind of success here vs. the Warriors. Two of the four regular season matchups between these teams were low-scoring (208 or less pts scored) while the other two were high-scoring (228+). I expect something along the lines of the former. 10* Under Mavs/Warriors

8* Boston (8:45 ET): The Celtics, despite NOT having the home court advantage for the series, enter as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami. That makes sense to me as the Celtics had the best scoring differential and net efficiency rating among teams in the East, during the regular season. They were my pick to win the East before the playoffs started and after eliminating Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the team has given me no reason to come off that opinion. If the Celtics are to confirm their status as series favorites, it stands to reason they’ll win one of these first two games in MIami. I’m taking the points in Game 1. 

Miami is the top seed and hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs. But I don’t think they’ve faced what Boston has faced in the first two rounds. The Celtics have had to contain the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat faced a subpar Hawks team in Round 1, then their Round 2 opponent (Philadelphia) was a bit of a mess as Joel Embiid was out the first two games and James Harden was never himself. I’m not sure the Heat can continue to rely so heavily on Jimmy Butler at the offensive end, especially against one of the premier defensive teams in the league. 

I know that Miami has a pretty nice scheduling edge heading into the series as they’ve been off for four days while Boston just won a Game 7 on Sunday. But it was a comfortable win for the Celtics 48 hours ago. The Celtics lost only once by more than three points in the second round and that was actually Game 1, when they were coming off a long layoff after sweeping the Nets in Round 1. The fact that Boston is the better team and series favorite is reflected in this number, but I just believe they’re set to “make good.” Even though the last series went seven games, no team posted a better net efficiency rating in Round 2 than did the C’s, who also have the best net overall efficiency rating in the playoffs. 8* Boston

10* Under Mavs/Suns (8:00 ET): I hit the Over in Game 1, but this is a series that has seen the Under take over - cashing each of the last four games. Two of those four games I’ve hit the Under, three of the games saw fewer than 200 total points scored. This will be the lowest O/U line of the series in Game 7, not surprising based on the trajectory of the series as well as the well-known trend about betting totals in Game 7’s of the NBA Playoffs. Since ‘03, Game 7 Unders have hit 63% of the time, helped by a typically slower tempo and the referees “swallowing their whistles.” I’m following the historical trend on this one. 

Phoenix is hoping another trend plays out in this Game 7. Home teams have performed very well historically in Game 7s, going 109-33 straight up, including 9-1 when favored by six or more (as the Suns are right now, as of press time). Plus, the home team has gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in this series so far. But it is difficult to look past the fact that the Suns had the lowest Round 1 net efficiency rating of any team that advanced and they are only outscoring Dallas by less than a point per game since Game 3. So I’ve got no interest in laying the points here. Especially since the Suns’ shooting has come back “down to Earth” (just 39.7% in Game 6). 

The Suns are 12-3 Under playing with exactly two days of rest this season. They are also 12-4 Under off a SU loss as a favorite, 10-2 Under off a double digit loss and 8-1 Under after being held below 100 points the previous game. So there’s even more trends. Dallas may not be as stout defensively on the road as they are at home, but they also won’t make 16 threes again like they did in Game 6. The Mavs not only played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season; they’ve also played at the slowest pace in the playoffs, of any team that advanced to the second round. 10* Under Mavs/Suns

10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well, Game 5 DID go Over (as I predicted), just not in the manner that I thought it might. My thought was that it would be Golden State responding from a Game 4 performance where it shot just 40% overall and 24.3% from three-point range. Memphis was also due for a little three-point improvement itself (they shot 25.7% in Game 4). What actually happened though was the Grizzlies exploding for 134 points in a one-sided beatdown! Thus the series heads back to Golden State, with the Grizz still trailing three games to two. The Warriors are big favorites to close things out tonight at home, but I think the better play here is the Under. 

For the record, the Warriors DID improve their shooting in Game 5. They made five more threes than they did in Game 4, but wound up attempting their fewest number of shots in any game in the series (80) and had just 13 FT attempts (made 9). Other than their own offensive explosion (142 points) in Game 3, the Dubs have now been held to 101 pts or less in three of the last four games. So Memphis has done an excellent job defensively in this series. We’ve also yet to see B2B Overs. 

I don’t see the Grizzlies making 43.9% from behind the arc again as they did in Game 5. Of course, they are still without Ja Morant.  Even though the team is 21-6 SU when Morant sits this season, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect big points from them here. They won’t be at home tonight as they were in Game 5. Golden State is allowing just 103.2 PPG at home, second fewest in the league. Memphis had seven players finish in double figures Weds night, but none had more than 21. The Under is 4-1 the last five times the Warriors have been off a loss. With this being the lowest O/U of the series, the Over will be tempting to some. But not me. 10* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

8* Dallas (9:30 ET): Top seed Phoenix is coming off a blowout win (110-80) and can close the series out with a win tonight. Problem is the Suns are 0-7 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has yet to lose a game in this series (same with Miami-Philadelphia) and as previously mentioned by me, the big difference for Dallas when they are at home is their defense really improves (101.3 PPG allowed). They held the Suns to 94 and 101 points in the first two games here. I’m taking the points in Game 6 as the Mavs likely force a Game 7. 

As you’d expect from a team that scored only 80 points, the Mavs shot dreadfully on Tuesday night, making only 38% of their total field goal attempts, including 8 of 32 from three-point range. In Games 3 and 4 here at home, they shot around 44% overall (still not that great) but also made a total of 33 threes. I am expecting vast improvement from beyond the arc tonight. Outside of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, the rest of the Mavs scored only 31 points on 8 of 31 shooting in Game 5. As I say so often, role players typically perform much better at home. 

It should also be pointed out that in two of its three losses in this series, Dallas has largely been the better team in the first half. They led at halftime in Game 2 (lost by 20) and then were also up with three minutes to go in the first half in Game 5. The team is an outstanding 18-4 ATS this season after being held under 100 points the previous game (28-9 ATS L3 seasons). The season is on the line tonight, they are at home and without question will be better than they were Tuesday. 8* Dallas

10* Under Heat/76ers (7:05 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the 76ers, who are facing elimination after being blown out of the water Tuesday in Miami. They lost 120-85, shooting only 36.5% overall and 28.1% from three-point range. I made a terrible call taking the Sixers plus the points in that game, but will look to atone for it here by playing the Under. Yes, you should obviously expect Philadelphia to shoot better than it did in Game 5. But the road team has shot poorly in all five games in this series, so look for Miami to regress from its 53.6% shooting (13 of 33 from three) in the last game. 

In Games 3 and 4 here in Philadelphia, the Heat went a combined 14 of 65 from three-point range. That’s 21.5%. One of the games saw them finish with only 79 points as a team. Other than Jimmy Butler, no Miami player has been a factor offensively here in the city of Brotherly Love. Butler’s teammates combined to go just 25 of 62 (40%) in Game 4. In Game 3, they totaled only 46 points! Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again tonight. 

Miami’s defense, as expected, has been outstanding in this series. For the playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 98.2 PPG and the Under is 7-2. They’ve held the Sixers below 100 points in three of the five games, including twice since Joel Embiid has returned. Aside from Game 4, James Harden has been subpar, scoring 20 pts or less in the other four games. Philly has now been held below 100 in four of its last seven games. While it’s never happened in consecutive games, tonight may break that pattern. 10* Under Heat/76ers

10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (9:30 ET): So Grizzlies’ star point guard Ja Morant has a bone bruise and a playoff return is looking unlikely. That’s basically a “death knell” for a Memphis team already facing elimination Weds night. Without Morant, the Grizz turned in a “game” effort in Game 4 @ Golden State, but came up three points shy (101-98) and are now facing a 3-1 series deficit. The Warriors were probably already the better team (been favored in every game) even with a healthy Morant available. Certainly, the expectation will be for the Dubs to close things out here. But I think the better play is the Over.

You may recall that I last played the Over in this series back in Game 1. It hit rather easily, going Over despite the number being bet up several points. Oddsmakers set the O/U line way too low for that series opener and the public made them pay. But they evidently learned their lesson as the O/U line opened 227.5 for Game 2. Two of the last three games have stayed Under, including Game 4 (when I had the Under). I didn’t think the oddsmakers adjusted enough for Morant’s absence in Game 4, but now it seems as if we’ve got an overcorrection as this will be the lowest O/U for any game in the series. 

The last game stayed way Under (by 23 points) as both teams struggled from three-point range. It was a combined 18 of 72 (25%). From the start, it was obvious the game was going to stay Under. Only 79 total points were scored in the 1H and 131 through three quarters. Given Golden State shot 63.1% overall in the previous game and 53% from three-point range, it was obvious they would regress Monday, but along those same lines, we should see vast improvement for Game 5. Memphis is due to shoot the ball better as well as I don’t expect them to go down without a fight, at home. 10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Both of Tuesday’s series have seen the underdog storm back to even the series at two games apiece. In both instances, the home team has also won all four games. In this one, most were writing Dallas off entering Game 3, but not me as I cashed the Mavs last Friday (10* Game of the Week) as they won 103-94. Then in Game 4, I was holding an Under ticket and had to sweat that out. Scoring plummeted in the second half (thankfully) and that Under bet was a winner by three points. I’m 3-0 in the series as I had the Over in Game 1. Now for the first time I’ll “repeat” a previous bet and take the Mavs (plus the points) in Game 5.

Dallas has led at the half each of the last three games and really dominated the last two from wire to wire. Now I realize the series now moves back to Phoenix, a place where the Mavs have not won in three years. But I think the defense and three-point shooting we saw in the two home games can “travel.” Again, this is a team that took two of three games in the first round vs. Utah without Luka Doncic. Phoenix was overdue for a “correction” in the shooting department after making 50% or better in each of the first eight playoff games. Sure enough, Dallas held them to 44.7% and 46.4% in the L2 games. The Suns made only nine threes in Game 4, which was also overdue. 

Shockingly poor play from Chris Paul also contributed to the two Mavs’ wins. Paul had seven turnovers in Game 3 then committed four first half fouls in Game 4. He played less than four minutes in the second half. Obviously, that’s unlikely to happen again here. But this just seems like too many points to lay in what should be a closely contested matchup. Looking at the betting percentages, the Suns have the look of a very “public” side in Game 5 and a team you’d want to fade. Dallas has seized the “momentum” and is 42-18-1 ATS its last 61 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* Dallas

8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, we’ve got a series on our hands as the Sixers won both games at home to even the series up at two games apiece. Now Miami is still favored, in this game and the series, as it still possesses the homecourt edge. The Heat endured two brutal shooting games in Philadelphia, making only 14 of 65 attempts from behind the three-point line. Compare that to the 76ers, who were 16 of 33 (48.5%) in both games. While you’ve got to expect better three-point shooting from Miami (the #1 three-point shooting team in the reg season) at home, it’s pretty clear to me that the series has changed dramatically since Joel Embiid returned. Take the points in Game 5. 

You also can’t understate the performance Philadelphia got from James Harden in Game 4. Harden scored 31, after averaging only 17.6 PPG in Gms 1-3, and hit the critical three in the 4Q. Embiid had 24 points and 11 rebounds, his second “double-double” in as many games since returning from injury. The other three starters also all scored in double figures. Both Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have proven that they can be consistent contributors offensively. If you’re thinking leaving Philadelphia will substantially hurt the Sixers, think again. Yes, they lost Games 1 & 2 here. But they actually have a better SU record on the road (29-17) than at home (28-18) this season. 

While Philly likely has the two best players in its ranks and is getting a variety of contributions offensively, Miami isn’t getting much beyond Jimmy Butler right now. Butler has seen his scoring go up in every game this series and had 40 pts in Game 4. But the rest of the team went just 25 of 62 (40%) from the field. In Game 3, Butler had 33 pts and the rest of the team scored just 46. Kyle Lowry has been a non-factor since coming back from injury while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have both been inconsistent. While the home team has won all four games in this series, the Heat have only outscored the Sixers by two points. I’m expecting a close one on Tuesday and will be taking the points with the hotter team. 8* Philadelphia

8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (10:00 ET): Well this series has certainly taken a nasty turn, with hard fouls and injuries defining the last two games. In Game 2, it was the Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks’ hard foul on the Warriors’ Gary Payton II (out indefinitely) taking two players out of the Game 3 proceedings (Brooks was suspended). Brooks will return for Game 4, but unfortunately for Memphis, Ja Morant is now questionable after the Warriors’ Jordan Poole appeared to grab his knee, re-injuring it. Whether or not Morant ends up playing on Monday, I like the Under here.

Certainly, Golden State will not be replicating its Game 3 shooting, which had them at a blistering 63.1% overall and 53.1% from three-point range. If you recall from my Game 3 analysis, I called for the Warriors to regain their shooting touch after they shot a poor 42.1% overall in the Game 2 loss, which included 7 of 38 from three, a franchise record for futility. But even I, as someone holding a ticket on the Dubs minus the points in Game 3, did not expect what we ended up getting. The team finished with 142 points and made 17 threes. Their overall and “true” shooting percentage for the game were both the second highest in NBA Playoff history.

According to his head coach Taylor Jenkins, there’s “probably a really good chance” that Morant doesn’t play in Game 4. That would obviously be a significant loss for Memphis offensively. Morant was Top 10 in points per game in the regular season and was also leading the league in assists per game here in the playoffs. Even if he does somehow manage to play, Morant clearly will not be the same. With the Grizzlies likely without their best player (and one of the top scorers in the league) and the Warriors’ shooting certain to regress, I think the Under is a pretty easy call here in Game 4. These were two of the top four teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season (GSW #1) and the Dubs allow only 103.4 PPG at home.  8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (7:30 ET): My NBA Playoff record has been pretty good thus far, but admittedly it would be even better if not for some stubbornness when it comes to choosing the Over in this particular series. It’s been flawed logic (to this point) waiting for the “roulette wheel to come up red” as all seven Bucks’ games this postseason have stayed Under. Oddsmakers have been scrambling to adjust as we’ve gone from a closing O/U line of 230.5 for Game 1 of the first round series (vs. Chicago) to a closing O/U line of 212 for the last game of this series. With every game, the O/U line has dropped. 

 My thought process, flawed as it has been, is that we’re getting value with the O/U line decreasing so much. As a reminder, Milwaukee led the Eastern Conference in scoring (115.5 PPG) during the regular season. But it has been their incredible DEFENSIVE efficiency rating (96.1) that has carried them throughout the playoffs. Consider that the #2 team (Miami) has a postseason defensive efficiency rating of 103.0. Boston isn’t too shabby defensively in its own right, ranking third in postseason defensive efficiency rating and second in the regular season. But, interestingly enough, this is the first time in the series we’ve seen a clear influx of early money coming in on the Over. 

That’s easy to understand. Whereas Boston shot horribly in Game 1 (33.3% overall) and Milwaukee shot horribly in Game 2 (3 of 18 from three-point range), BOTH teams were bad from the floor in Game 3. The Celtics were back down to 36.8% overall while the Bucks weren’t much better (at 40.4%). The teams combined to shoot 18 of 67 (26.8%) from behind the arc. I expect improvement across the board in the shooting department - from both teams - here in Game 4. Scoring has jumped in every game, from 190 in Game 1 to 195 in Game 2 to 204 in Game 3. Another jump comes here and we FINALLY cash that elusive Over ticket on Milwaukee. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

10* Under Suns/Mavericks (3:30 ET): Phoenix probably cannot continue to shoot as well from three-point range as they have so far in this series (45.6%), especially considering they are up against a Dallas team that only allows 101.3 PPG at home this season. Sure enough, the Mavs held the Suns to only 94 points in Game 3, picking up their first win of the series. I’m expecting another strong effort from the home team at the defensive end of the floor today, considering the most points they’ve allowed in any of their four home playoff games so far is 104.

Yet the Mavs have scored 103 or less themselves in more than half of their own postseason games. It’s just 210.2 total PPG scored in Mavs’ playoff games. They held Utah, who was tied for the most efficient offense in the regular season, below 100 PPG. Phoenix shot the lights out in Games 1 & 2 (particularly Gm 2), but then here in Dallas, the Mavs returned to their stingy ways. The Suns were still 13 of 28 from three-point range, but made far less shots overall compared to the first two games. 

I should also point out how, in the regular season, Dallas played at the slowest tempo in the league. Game 3 was Phoenix’s lowest-scoring effort of the season, but something else that deserves to be pointed out is how they are 7-1 Under this season after being held below 100 points in the previous game. It’s not just three-point regression that should be in store for the Suns. They are shooting 52.6% overall in the playoffs, up from 48.8% for the season. The Under is 30-14 in all Dallas’ home games this season. 10* Under Suns/Mavericks

8* Golden State (8:30 ET): The Warriors were able to wrest home court advantage away from the Grizzlies, taking Game 1 by a score of 117-116. Having bet the Over, that result sat well with me. I sat out Game 2 (no play), which was won by Memphis 106-101 and not without controversy. Dillon Brooks injuring Gary Payton II has resulted in BOTH players being out for Game 3 (Brooks is suspended). We saw both home teams come out fired up last night in NBA playoff action and though not down 0-2 in the series like the Sixers & Mavs, I expect the Warriors to come out just as fired up here. 

Another difference between the Dubs and last night’s home sides is that we are having to lay points. Not a concern of mine as they are, in my estimation, clearly the better team here. Memphis was fortunate to advance out of the first round, let alone take the series in six games, They overcame double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter in three of those wins. Losing Brooks is going to be significant as he had three 23+ point games vs. the Timberwolves. I also don’t see Ja Morant matching his Game 2 production (47 points) tonight as he made more threes on Tuesday (five) than he did in the entire first round series (four). 

Speaking of three-point shooting, the Warriors were historically bad in Game 2, making only 18.4 percent. It was the worst three-point shooting performance in the playoffs in franchise history. Klay Thompson was 2 for 12 while Steph Curry was 3 for 11. To say they’ll improve dramatically tonight seems like an obvious statement. Memphis, despite Morant’s 47 points, didn’t shoot that well either in the last game. But Golden State clearly has more room for improvement here and they are 34-10 SU at home (3-0 in Rd 1), outscoring visiting teams by more than 10 PPG on the year. They’ve held the rebounding edge in both games. 8* Golden State

10* Over Celtics/Bucks (3:30 ET): This series heads back to Milwaukee with the teams tied 1-1. Both picked up their respective wins in fairly dominant fashion. The Bucks rolled in Game 1, 101-89, snapping a 9-game ATS losing streak to the Celtics. As expected both teams shot better overall in Game 2 (46.6% for Milwaukee, 47.5% for Boston), but the Bucks were doomed by going 3 of 18 from three-point range (16.7%). Boston made more threes (20) than Milwaukee even attempted and the incredible +51 point edge the Celtics enjoyed from beyond the arc essentially guaranteed victory. The final score was 109-86.

The Under is now 7-0 in Milwaukee playoff games. Oddsmakers continue to drop the total, which was 230.5 for Game 1 of their first round series (vs. Chicago), if you can believe that. We’re now down to 212.5 (as of press time). Barring some kind of massive wave of Over money on this game (which I do not anticipate), this will be the eighth straight Bucks’ game where the O/U line is lower than the previous one. Considering they were the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, I feel the Over is now inevitable. I know I’ve been saying that for awhile now, but this is poised to be the lowest O/U line for any Bucks’ game since before X-Mas!

Bucks’ games still average 225.6 points this season, even with the run of postseason Unders. Celtics’ games average 215.9, so this number is below that. I know both teams are capable of playing great defense, but there is simply no way Milwaukee isn’t going to see a dramatic increase in three-point shooting from Game 2, similar to what we saw with Boston in Game 2 after they shot a woeful 33.3% overall in Game 1. The Celtics have made 38 three-pointers in the first two games. The teams will have had three days off between games when they take the court Saturday. Boston games have averaged 226 PPG in that situation this year while Milwaukee games have averaged 221.1. 10* Over Celtics/Bucks

10* Dallas (9:30 ET): The Mavericks seem to have no answers for the Suns as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by 7 and 20 points. The first game wasn’t really that close as Dallas was down double digits most of the way and trailed by 16 with just five minutes remaining. It’s not just these two games where the Mavs have struggled against the Suns either. Going back to the beginning of 2020, they’ve lost 11 straight head to head matchups and only covered the spread twice. But now the series moves back to Dallas where the Mavs are 31-13 SU this year and giving up only 101.5 PPG. 

Game 2 was a little different than Game 1 in the sense that this time the Mavs were only down six entering the fourth quarter. But then Chris Paul took over and it turned into another blowout situation. Dallas actually led at halftime, 60-58, but simply could not match the hot shooting of the Suns, who finished the game at a blistering 64.5% from the floor. Even if the series wasn’t moving to Dallas for Game 3, you know there is no way Phoenix can match that kind of overall shooting percentage. They were also 52% (13 of 25) from three-point range. Paul and Devin Booker were a combined 22 of 35 from the floor. No player on the Suns shot below 50% for the game! C’mon man! 

From previous analysis that I’ve done, you might recall that teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series do quite well when returning home for Game 3. Not necessarily in the first round of this year’s playoffs, but historically teams in this spot are hitting well over 60% ATS. The Mavs will essentially be playing for their season here as no team in NBA history has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit. Considering Dallas has shot 41 percent from three-point range so far in this series, I think they can get the job done in Game 3. They beat Utah twice without Luka Doncic in Round 1 and the role players will play better at home. 10* Dallas

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here. 

Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. While both teams figure to improve from distance tonight, I think it’s clear that the 76ers have more room to improve and it’s difficult for me to envision them being any worse than they were offensively in the first game. After being held 100 points the previous game, the Sixers have gone an impressive 16-4 straight up and 13-7 against the spread this season. They are also on a 35-17-1 ATS run following a double digit loss. 

Miami’s only postseason loss thus far came by a single point, on the road, but it is notable they’ve failed to score more than 110 points in any of the last four games. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, Philadelphia was able to beat the Heat in the final regular season matchup, despite not having Embiid AND Harden. Going back to Philly’s ability to bounce back from a bad loss, the last time they were off a double digit loss where they were held below 100 points was Game 6 against the Raptors. They ended up closing out the series with a 132-97 road win. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

8* Over 76ers/Heat (7:35 ET):  Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here.

Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. Both teams figure to improve from distance tonight as they shoot 36.5% and 37.6% from behind the arc, respectively. Miami was in fact the league’s best three-point shooting team, percentage-wise in the regular season. Philadelphia was seventh. Going a combined 15 of 70 from deep is highly uncharacteristic for these two teams. 

For the Heat, who are still missing Kyle Lowry, I expect Jimmy Butler to play better than he did in Game 1 where he finished with only 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting. He typically follows a subpar game with a good one. Tyler Herro stepped in Game 1 for Miami, outscoring Philly’s bench by himself. With Lowry still out, Herro figures to continue to put up nice numbers. Speaking of the Philly bench, they’ve got to be better than 1 of 12 from three-point range. Yes, six straight Heat games have gone Under, but this looks to be the fourth one in a row where the oddsmakers have dropped the total. Given the likelihood of improved shooting (from both sides) in this game, the value is on the Over. 8* Over 76ers/Heat

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:00 ET): Think we’ll see better shooting here than we did in Game 1? Boston was a paltry 33.3% from the field in their series opening loss, scoring just 89 points despite making 18 threes. Their three-point shooting was actually quite decent, 36% to be exact, but somehow (at home) the C’s were 10 of 34 inside the arc on Sunday. That’s truly incredible. I know that Milwaukee has really stepped it up defensively in the postseason, but there’s just no way we don’t get improved shooting (and more points) from the home team in Game 2. The Bucks only shot 41.1% overall in Game 1 and they should improve in that regard as well tonight.

All six Bucks’ playoff games have now gone Under. Oddsmakers are chasing as Game 1 of the Bucks-Bulls’ first round series had a closing total of 230.5. Now the O/U line for this game opened 15.5 points lower. Milwaukee was the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, which is something else to consider. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple double in Game 1 (24-13-12) while Jrue Holiday stepped it up with 25 points and nine rebounds. Even without Khris Middleton, I expect the Bucks to score more than they did in Game 1. Especially if Boston is w/o Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart (questionable).

On the Celtics side, you’ve got to expect Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will improve upon their collective 10 of 31 shooting from Game 1. For the season, that duo combined to average 48.2 PPG. The theme of this play is very much “improvement,” in case you couldn’t tell. Boston averaged 113.5 PPG in Round 1. Milwaukee scored at least 110 in each of its last four first round games. I’ll close by repeating something I said in the Game 1 analysis: the four regular season meetings between these teams all saw at least 220 total points scored. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Mavs/Suns (10:00 ET): The Mavs-Jazz series was pretty low-scoring with the two teams combining for just 203.7 points per game. But now Luka Doncic is ready to play a full series for the Mavs and they will be facing a Phoenix team that was top five in both scoring and offensive efficiency during the regular season. For the Suns, Devin Booker returned earlier than expected and they were able to close out the Pelicans in Game 6, scoring a series high 115 points. Only one time in the first round did the Suns fail to score 110. Their season average at home is 115.2 and if they hit that tonight, this looks like an easy Over. 

Now Dallas did just do a great job defensively against Utah, who also was one of the top offensive teams in the regular season. But the Suns aren’t as inept as the Jazz. They’ve got Chris Paul, who had a monster first round with 22.3 points and 11.3 assists per game. Note that in the close out game vs. New Orleans, Booker scored only 13 points and came off the bench. He’s now had several days off to further get over his hamstring issue and will almost certainly give the team more than he did in that last game. The Suns are also 20-8 Over following a SU win. 

Look for Dallas to attempt a lot of threes in this series as they had the highest 3pt rate in the first round and connected at 37%. Doncic, the NBA’s third leading scorer, played in only one of the three regular season meetings vs. Phoenix (Mavs lost all of them). That one time he played, the Mavs were up nine in the 4Q and that was with Doncic shooting just 9 of 23 for the game. All three regular season meetings also took place before the Mavs traded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. While he had a relatively poor first round series, Dinwiddie can easily exceed his 15.3 PPG average vs. Utah here. That would mean Jalen Brunson would not have to match his 27.8 PPG 1st round average. Bottom line there’s a lot of scoring options for both teams. 10* Over Mavs/Suns

8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): So the big story here is that the 76ers will be without Joel Embiid, though reports have surfaced he could be back as early as Game 3. But that obviously doesn’t help Philly tonight. What does help is having James Harden. I think that the market has slightly overreacted to the news of Embiid’s absence as the Sixers were bet out as far as +8.5 for Game 1 in Miami. Remember that we’ve seen Dallas win without Luka Doncic, Phoenix win without Devin Booker and more recently (yday) Milwaukee go to Boston and win without Khris Middleton. Not saying the Sixers pull the outright upset here, but the spread seems too large. 

It’s not as if Miami is 100 percent healthy right now either. Kyle Lowry is still out while Jimmy Butler missed the close out game vs. Atlanta and Tyler Herro has been battling a cold. Butler and Herro will reportedly play tonight. But with so many players less than 100%, can the Heat score enough to cover this spread? I don’t think so. Harden should put up monster numbers for Philadelphia and it’s worth noting he averaged 10.5 assists per game in the first round vs. Toronto. Tyrese Maxey can also help fill the scoring void left by Embiid’s absence. Maxey scored 38 in Game 1 vs. Toronto, and is third in the league in three-point efficiency. 

Only six players took part in all four 76ers-Heat regular season matchups. I think it is worth noting though that without Embiid and Harden, the Sixers defeated the Heat 113-106 (as eight-point underdogs) back on March 21st. Now that was at home. But they shot 50% overall as a team and were 40% from three-point range. Also, the Sixers’ defense was outstanding against the Heat in the regular season as Gabe Vincent was the only Miami player to average more than 20 PPG against them. The four games saw the Heat only outscore the Sixers by four total points. Expect Game 1 to be close. 8* Philadelphia

8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (3:30 ET): Memphis’ series vs. Minnesota was lower scoring than anticipated with four of the six games going Under. But there was still an average of 223.9 points per game scored between the two teams. Quite frankly, I thought the Grizzlies were a bit fortunate to advance - at least in six games - as they trailed by double digits (in the fourth quarter!) in three of their four wins. Now they are set to face a Golden State team that is looking like it should be considered the favorite to come out of the West. The Warriors averaged 118 PPG in eliminating the Nuggets in five games. 

I like Game 1 of this series to go Over the total. These were the two highest scoring teams in the first round, combining to average 232.7 PPG. Golden State shot 51.5% overall from the field and 42.2% from three-point range. I think the fact Memphis gave up only 109 PPG to Minnesota was a bit fortunate as the T’wolves would constantly fall apart late. Over the L5 games of the series, the T’wolves would average less than 21 PPG in the 4Q. The Warriors simply will not melt down like that. Go ahead and throw out that 28-point loss the Dubs had here in Memphis back in March. Curry, Thompson and Green all didn’t play. With its “death lineup” now in full force, Golden State is as strong as it has been all year. 

No player has hit more threes in the playoffs so far than has Memphis’ Desmond Bane (27). While Golden State has an excellent defensive efficiency rating, it should be pointed out that they allowed 113 and 126 points in the two road games vs. Denver. Only Game 5 of that series stayed Under. This would be the lowest total for either team so far in the playoffs. The Over is 11-1 in Memphis’ last 12 playoff games as an underdog. We’re going to see a lot of three-point attempts in this series. Golden State was third in 3PA during the regular seasons while Memphis averaged 34.5 3PA per game vs. the Warriors in the four reg season matchups. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (1:00 ET): This series pits the reigning NBA Champs (Milwaukee) against the team I feel is the favorite to come out of the East this year (Boston). By virtue of finishing second in the conference standings, the Celtics have the home court advantage. They made quick work of Brooklyn in Round 1, shockingly sweeping the Nets in what was expected to be a competitive series. As for the Bucks, they were widely expected to eliminate the Bulls and did so in five games. The two teams are obviously now anticipating a much more competitive series here in the conference semifinals. 

All five games in the Bucks-Bulls series stayed Under the total. The series started with a Game 1 total of 230.5 and steadily declined down to 217.5 for Game 5. Milwaukee held Chicago to 95.2 PPG on 40.4% shooting, but they won’t be able to do that against Boston, who averaged 113.5 PPG on 49.1% shooting in the first round. The Bucks averaged 109.8 PPG on 47.1% shooting. That PPG average was below what they averaged for the season (115.2), which led the Eastern Conference. This is going to be a higher scoring series.

These teams met four times in the regular season. All four games saw at least 220 total points scored. The last two meetings had O/U lines of 231.5 and 227.5. Yes, scoring does go down in the playoffs, but I think we’re getting a solid value on the Game 1 total. Only one of the four Celtics-Nets games had less than 221 total points scored. Milwaukee scored 110 or more in each of the last four games vs. Chicago. I think that it’s quite reasonable to expect both teams to score 110 in this game. They combine to average 227 PPG for the year. The Over is 8-1 the L9 meetings, only one of which had a lower O/U line than what we are presented with here. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz are facing elimination at home in Game 6, something they would not have expected after previously “stealing” the home court advantage away with a Game 1 win in Dallas. The Mavericks played the first three games of this series without superstar Luka Doncic, but won two of the three. After losing Game 4 (here in Salt Lake City) by a single points, the Mavs bounced back and romped to a 102-77 victory as three-point favorites. I know it was a terrible call by me taking Utah in that game, but I still believe they are the better team and we are getting a great price on them at home. 

After some concern he’d miss Game 6, Jazz PG Deron Williams is likely to play tonight. But I think that the bigger boost comes from returning home where the team is 30-13 SU on the year and outscoring visiting teams by 9.2 PPG. Dallas is not as staunch defensively on the road as it is at home and the Jazz are going to shoot MUCH better from three-point land tonight than they did in Game 5. How could they not? Their 3 of 30 performance on Tuesday was the worst percentage in NBA Playoff history! 

In the regular season, Utah was tied for the most efficient offense in the NBA and they average 116.4 PPG at home. It has been rather shocking to see them get held to 104 points or less in four of the five games in this series. They did shoot 56.5% from the floor here in Game 3 though, so they’ve shown to be capable. Game 5 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz were underdogs. Considering where the lines were set in the first four games, needing only a SU win tonight seems like a great value. I look for Utah to force a Game 7. 10* Utah

8* Under Suns/Pelicans (7:30 ET): Still without Devin Booker, top seed Phoenix looks to close out New Orleans on Thursday. The Suns got a career playoff-high 31 points from Mikal Bridges in the Game 5 victory, which snapped a three-game run for the Over in the series. The final score was 112-97 and obviously had as much to do with what the Suns accomplished at the defensive end. They held CJ McCollum, the Pelicans’ leading scorer, to just 7 of 22 shooting. With Bridges highly unlikely to match his production from Tuesday, look for Game 6 to stay Under as well. 

Chris Paul also had a nice bounce back in Game 5, scoring 22 points and dishing out 11 assists. Only Magic Johnson and LeBron James have more 20-10 (points-assists) games in NBA playoff history than Paul’s 31. But he had just four points the last time the teams played in New Orleans and the team finished with just 103. Phoenix was quite dreadful from three-point range in the two games here, making only 11 of 53 attempts. They really miss Booker in that regard. 

Now there are reports that Booker may return tonight. But I wouldn’t expect him to be a dominant player in his first game back. With Paul and Bridges also likely to regress, that means less points than usual from Phoenix, who is 7-3 Under its L10 games. New Orleans might be slightly better on offense than they were in Game 5, but I’m also not expecting them to get to the free throw line as much. The L2 games have seen them get 77 attempts. 8* Under Suns/Pelicans

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (7:30 ET): Of all the first round series, East or West, this is the one where I was most confident in who the winner would be. Defending champion Milwaukee came in as huge favorites and though they dropped Game 2 here at home (114-110), they made short work of the Bulls in Chicago, winning the two games by a combined 54 points. That was even without Khris Middleton, who remains out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury in Game 2. The odds are high that the Bucks finish this series Wednesday night at home and honestly I’m a little leery of laying this many points. But I do see value on the Game 5 total. 

The previous four games have all stayed Under. But we’re now a long way from the Game 1 total, which closed at 230.5. While Chicago has been held to 95 points or less in each of its three losses, I do see them scoring more here with the season hanging in the balance. Game 4 just barely stayed Under and that was with the Bulls shooting just 38.9% overall and 9 of 36 from behind the arc. DeRozan, Vucevic & LaVine were a combined 3 of 17 from downtown. I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to improve upon those percentages here tonight. They are 13-5 Over this season after being held to 100 or less this season. 

But the Bulls’ problem is going to be on the defensive end. Milwaukee has scored 110 or more in three straight, but Game 4 marked the first time they exceeded their season average of 115.2 PPG (which led the Eastern Conference). They’ve made 46 threes over the L3 games and shot 51% from long range in Game 4. Alex Caruso left the last game with a concussion and is questionable for Game 5. Back in the regular season, we saw how bad the Bulls were defensively when both Caruso and Lonzo Ball (season over) were out. The Bucks are 20-8 Over L28 as home favorites. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

10* Atlanta (7:30 ET): The Raptors, who were facing elimination, treated us well last night. So give me the Hawks plus the points, in the same situation on Tuesday. Now it’s not been a great series for Trae Young thus far as he’s averaging just 16.5 PPG and hitting only 20.8% from three-point range. But he is responsible for the Hawks’ only win here vs. Miami (hit the game-winning basket in Game 3) and you’ve got to believe he’s got one good game in him. With the team’s season on the line tonight, now is the perfect time for Young to “show up” and I think he will.

As a team, the Hawks have not been held under 100 pts in B2B games since early January. They finished the regular season tied with Utah for #1 in offensive efficiency. So I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to rebound from the dismal 86-point effort in Game 4. Recall I had the Heat in that game. What’s changed here is that Atlanta’s season is now on the line and we’re getting a healthy amount of points. I know they failed to cover the spread in the first two games here in Miami, but it seems as if the public sentiment is totally against them coming into tonight and it’s a great chance to fire on an undervalued underdog. 

Remember that Miami is without PG Kyle Lowry. It didn’t seem to matter in Game 4, but not having Lowry is significant. Clint Capella returned for Atlanta in the last game and while he had just two points and seven rebounds, I expect him to play better tonight. It goes without saying that you should expect more points here from Young, who had only nine points in Game 4 and didn’t make a single free throw or two-point basket. Jimmy Butler had 36 for the Heat, but he typically follows up a big game with a subpar one. That’s a bigger deal now that Lowry is out. I can’t guarantee that the Hawks keep their season alive, but they’ll at least cover tonight. 10* Atlanta

8* Utah (9:30 ET): This will be the first time in the series that the Jazz are underdogs, so I’ll pounce on the opportunity as a win tonight would mean they can close the Mavs out in Salt Lake City on Thursday. Utah has failed to cover each of the last three games in this series, and 12 of 15 going back to the end of the regular season. But again, this is a rare opportunity where you’re getting them plus the points. Not since a game at Boston on 3/23 have the Jazz been more than a one-point underdog against anybody. This will be just the 12th time all season that they check in as dogs! 

Dallas got Luka Doncic back for Game 4, but it just wasn’t enough as they lost 100-99 on a Rudy Gobert dunk in the closing seconds. The Mavericks shot better than the Jazz on Saturday, from all ranges, so that’s a pretty brutal loss with their star returning. Utah has not shot well from three-point range in this series, going 32% or worse in three of the four games. Perhaps you’ve got to credit the Dallas’ defense, but my gut says the Jazz will fire efficiently from long-range tonight. They were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this year and also finished tied (w/ Atlanta) for the league-lead in offensive efficiency. 

Doncic had 30 points in his return, but it really wasn’t that great of a game and he seemed to have a NEGATIVE effect on the Mavs’ offensive flow. Only one of Doncic’s teammates (Jalen Brunson) scored more than 11 points and the entire bench contributed just 13 points. I’m a little shocked that Dallas is +51 in three-point attempts for the series, considering Utah was a top-two team in that category during the regular season. The Mavs are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as a playoff favorite. Considering that Utah was favored here in the first two games (granted, no Doncic) and how many they were favored by in the two games at home, this seems to be an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. 8* Utah

10* Toronto (8:00 ET): The Raptors were able to fend off elimination on Saturday, taking Game 4 (at home) by a score of 110-102 as 2.5-point underdogs. As you know, no team in NBA history has ever come back to win a series after losing the first three games. So history is not on Toronto’s side as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. But I do like the points tonight as Scottie Barnes (NBA’s Rookie of the Year) has returned for the Raptors and you know that the team will be giving 100% with their season on the line. 

Now unfortunately, Barnes’ return for Game 4 coincided with the loss of PG Fred Van Vleet to a hip injury. However, I’m not sweating Van Vleet’s questionable status for this game. He’d become a bit of a defensive liability for the Raptors. That said, they did hold the 76ers to an average of 103 points in the two games in Toronto. I also expect the Raptors to shoot much better from three-point range than they did on Saturday. Winning - in spite of going 8 of 34 from behind the arc - was pretty impressive, if you think about it. Pascal Siakam played a heck of a game, scoring 15 of his team-high 34 points in the fourth quarter. 

Perhaps the biggest injury to make note of heading into Game 5 is on the Philly side as Joel Embiid has a torn ligament in his right thumb and it clearly affected him in the Game 4 loss when he went 7 of 16 from the field. It also didn’t help that James Harden was 5 of 17, including 2 of 8 on three-point attempts. Or that Tyrese Maxey, who had that 38-point effort in Game 1, has seen his own production drop in every game. He scored just 11 points in Game 4. While it’s certainly possible that Harden and/or Maxey play better tonight at home, I think that gets canceled out by the fact the Sixers won’t be +15 again from three-point land. In what oddsmakers project to be a fairly low-scoring tussle, taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Toronto

8* New Orleans (9:30 ET): The top-seeded Suns may look like a bargain at this number, but remember they are without leading scorer Devin Booker and won Game 3 by only three points. It was a close game most of the way and the Pelicans caught a tough break in the second quarter when forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected. That led to the Suns dominating points in the paint. The loss of Booker really can’t be understated and I expect New Orleans to spring an upset here, just like they did in Game 2 at Phoenix. 

New Orleans’ overall record this season is a little misleading as they started 3-16 SU. The acquisition of CJ McCollum proved to be a difference maker as he and Brandon Ingram form an excellent scoring tandem that’s averaged 55.7 PPG in this series. I expect that duo to get more help tonight from Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr, who combined to make only two shots in Game 3. The Pelicans have lost B2B home games just once since the All-Star Break. They are 6-1 ATS L7 games off an ATS loss. 

The loss of Booker was clearly felt as the Suns were a horrid 4 of 26 from three-point range in Game 3. They’ll surely improve upon that percentage tonight, but I wouldn’t look for them to go 40 of 61 (66%!) from two-point range again. The Suns have struggled to defend the three-point line in this series as the Pelicans are shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. Winning twice on the road is tough in the playoffs, especially when you are without your best player. Take the points. 8* New Orleans

10* Miami (7:00 ET): The Heat are one Trae Young floater away from being up 3-0 in this first round series and thus they could have been in position to close the Hawks out here on Sunday. But Young made that floater, giving Atlanta a much needed 111-110 win on Friday as they rallied back from a 14-point 4Q deficit. Still, I don’t think there’s any dispute who the better team is and I expect that team (the Heat!) to bounce back with a win in Game 4. 

Kyle Lowry left Game 3 with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Saturday. But even if he can’t go, I fully anticipate the Heat putting plenty of points on the board tonight. They’ve scored 110 or more in eight straight games and are up against a team with the worst regular season defensive efficiency rating among playoff qualifiers. After shooting 43.2% from three-point range in the first two games, the Heat were down to 31.1% (14 of 45) in Game 3. While some of that has to do with the change in venue, I’d expect improved shooting from behind the arc tonight.

Despite the late heroics in the last game, Young is not having a great series. He scored only eight points in Game 1, then had 10 turnovers (career-high) in Game 2. Through three quarters in Game 3, Young had just 14 pts on 3 of 9 shooting. Over his L9 games vs. Miami, Young has averaged only 21.3 points in large part to the Heat’s ability to defend on-ball picks. I realize that Atlanta is a much better team at home (21-3 SU here since 1/17) but they are just 2-9 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. Lay the short number. 10* Miami

8* 1st Half Brooklyn (7:30 ET): First off, note that this is a first half play only where I’m backing the Nets. The Nets are the fourth team this postseason to return home down 0-2 in the series. Of the previous three, only Atlanta (last night) was able to emerge victorious. But two of the three (Atlanta & Toronto) were leading their games at halftime. What sets Brooklyn apart from the previous three teams in this spot is that they are favored to win. The first two games of this series have been close with Game 1 decided on a buzzer-beater and Game 2 seeing the Nets up 10 at the half. This team is too good to fall down 0-3 to the Celtics. I expect them to be leading comfortably at the halftime break.

After losing Game 1 at the buzzer, the Nets led by as many as 17 points in Game 2. That was late in the first half. They were still up seven in the fourth quarter before wilting down the stretch and getting outscored 16-2 over a seven-minute stretch. Boston did not take its first lead until there were less than eight minutes left in the game. I can’t see Kevin Durant having a third straight sub-standard game. He’s averaging 25 PPG, but on 13 of 41 from the field and he’s made only two three-pointers. The Celtics have done an excellent job defending Durant, but eventually a player that great is going to have a great game. It happens here.

Boston also probably won’t shoot 52% from the field again like it did in Game 2. Even with Durant’s struggles, Brooklyn is averaging 114.5 points in the series and shooting north of 50 percent. Kyrie Irving, after an incredible Game 1 performance with 39 points, cooled off dramatically in Game 2, scoring only 10 and didn’t have a made three. He, like Durant, will have a better effort tonight and I expect the same from the Nets’ role players as well as this game is at home. It would be shocking to me if the home team didn’t get off to another fast start in this game. 8* 1st Half Brooklyn

10* Over Mavs/Jazz (4:30 ET): With the potential for Luka Doncic’s return on Saturday, I’m surprised this total isn’t higher. Both Games 2 and 3 went Over the total, the latter by a significant margin (36.5 points!) Now Utah shot 56.5% in Game 3 (and still lost!), a clip we probably can’t expect them to match this afternoon. But I do expect the host Jazz to be more efficient from three-point range where they were just 9 of 28 on Thursday. This is a team that averages 15 made threes per game at home where they average 116.8 PPG. Not only is Utah the league’s third highest scoring home team, don’t forget they finished the regular season tied for the league lead (with Atlanta) in offensive efficiency.

I had Dallas plus the points in Game 3 and the cover was never really in doubt as they raced out to a 68-51 halftime lead. Once again, Jalen Brunson led the way, this time with 31 points. That followed a career-high 41 points in Game 2. He’s averaging 32 PPG for the series, clearly filling the void left by Doncic’s absence. While I don’t think the Mavs will score 126 again, even if Doncic returns, hitting their season average of 108.1 PPG is certainly realistic and probably all that we need. The Mavs are 6-2 Over their last 8 games.

Utah is on a 16-5 Over run in playoff action the last three seasons, including 12-3 in the first round. They are 3-0 to the Over when trailing in a series. Today is certainly shaping up to be a “must-win” for the Jazz as a loss means they head back to Dallas down three games to one. Things were looking up when they temporarily “stole” home court advantage by winning Game 1, but B2B outright losses have changed things in a hurry. Jazz home games have averaged 224.2 points this season. So, once again, I say this number looks low. Both teams had a 40-point quarter on Thursday. 10* Over Mavs/Jazz

10* Under Suns/Pelicans (9:30 ET): Both of last year’s NBA Finalists (Bucks & Suns) have had a trying 48 hours, not only losing Game 2 of their respective series, but also losing a key player in the process. For Phoenix, that key player is Devin Booker, who has a “Grade 1” hamstring injury. Booker leads his team with 26.8 points per game, so to say his injury is significant is no understatement. Now the Suns may very well have enough talent on hand to still get by the 8th seeded Pelicans, but expect Game 3 of this series to be low-scoring, along the lines of Game 1. Take the Under here. 

Game 2 was a wild affair with New Orleans coming from behind to win 125-114 as 9.5-point underdogs. Now Phoenix was behind, by three points, when Booker left the game. But considering Booker poured in 31 points himself in the first half, then the Suns could only manage 53 as a team in the entire second half, his absence was absolutely felt. Honestly, the bigger issue for the top seed may have been their transition defense. "That was probably, for us, the worst we have ever looked in transition since I have been here," coach Monty Williams said. "For that to happen in a playoff game was a bit unsettling for everybody. 

Now I do not expect New Orleans to shoot 54.8% from the field again like they did in Game 2. They were also 17 of 30 from three-point range, an absurd 56.7%. There’s no way they are matching those numbers tonight, even though the game is at home. Brandon Ingram was 13 of 21 shooting overall. He was perfect on threes and finished with 37-11-9. Can’t see him replicating that. Then you have the fact the Suns can’t possibly replace Booker’s production as he hit seven threes in the first half alone Wednesday. The Suns are 8-1 Under following a double digit loss this season. 10* Under Suns/Pelicans

9* Under Bucks/Bulls (8:30 ET): This is my first foray into this series, which has taken a bit of a dramatic turn in the last 48 hours. Of all the first round series in the Eastern Conference, this was the one where projecting a winner seemed to be the most obvious (and that was reaffirmed by the odds), however, not only did Milwaukee lose Game 2 at home Weds night (114-110 as a 10-point favorite), but they are now going to be without Khris Middleton for at least two weeks, which is a huge loss. Both games in Milwaukee did stay Under and now things move to Chicago. I think the Under is likely to hit again. 

Middleton is the Bucks’ second leading scorer this season (20.1 PPG), obviously trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. He had averaged just 14.5 points in the first two games of this series, but is obviously going to be missed moving forward. Middleton wasn’t the only Bucks player to leave Game 2 with an injury; Bobby Portis had to exit with an eye injury, though it’s expected he will play tonight. So far, the Bucks have averaged just 101.5 PPG in this series (on 43.1% shooting), well below their regular season average. It doesn’t help that they are only shooting 65% from the free throw line. 

Chicago’s “big three” of DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine combined to shoot 21 of 71 (29.6%) in Game 1, but then rebounded to 33 of 62 (53.2%) in Game 2, led by DeRozan’s 41 points. Expect them to finish somewhere “in the middle” for Game 3. I can’t see the Bulls scoring 63 points in the first half again, like they did Wednesday. Nor do I see them shooting 48% from three-point range again. All season long, Bulls’ division games have been lower scoring than non-division games, averaging just 208 PPG. The Under is 14-4 in division games. Before the Game 2 win, they’d faced Milwaukee five times (lost all five) and averaged just 98.4 PPG. 9* Under Bucks/Bulls

8* Denver (10:05 ET): I expect the Nuggets to come out hot. As you probably know, there has never been a team in NBA history to come back from an 0-3 series deficit. So there’s a natural sense of “urgency” for teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series and when you throw in the fact they are back at home, it’s rather reasonable to expect a strong performance. Interestingly enough, despite losing each of the first two games by double digits, Denver has gotten off to good starts. They’ve lead after the 1Q in both games. 

It was late in the first half - when GS unveiled its so-called “death lineup” - when Game 1 turned in the Warriors’ favor. It wasn’t until after the halftime break when things unraveled for the Nuggets in Game 2 as they allowed 44 points in the third quarter. Note Denver only shot 31.4% from behind the arc in Game 1 and 42.5% overall in Game 2. Back at home, I certainly expect better shooting from them as they average 114.8 PPG here (59.3 in the 1H) on 48.2% shooting. Golden State, who shot very well in the first two games, should see an offensive decrease here in Game 3. Their number of points per game scored on the road this year is down from what they average at home while the amount of PPG allowed rises. 

In fact, Golden State has a negative point differential on the road in the first half this season. They are 22-19 SU on the road this season, but that’s a far cry from their 33-10 SU home record. Steph Curry has come off the bench in the first two games; that could change for Game 3, but regardless I think it’s the Nuggets that come out stronger. Going back to the regular season, Golden State has now beaten Denver three straight times, but before that the Nuggets had won the season’s first three meetings, including 131-124 here in the Mile High City back in March. Remember they were up 43-31 in the 2Q in Game 2. 8* Denver

10* Dallas (9:05 ET): Without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were able to get a split at home with the Jazz. Now the series moves to Salt Lake City and Doncic is listed as questionable for Game 3 tonight. Doncic averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the regular season vs. Utah. I probably don’t need to tell you that his return would be gigantic for the Mavs. But, even if he can’t go, I still like the underdog (plus the points) in this one as the Jazz have been big money-burners over the last month or so, going 3-9-1 ATS L13 games. This is too many points that they are laying. 

In Game 2, the Mavs got a career-high 41 points from Jalen Brunson, made 22 three-pointers (a franchise record for a playoff game) and turned the ball over three times. When you consider that, it’s surprising they only won by six points, but beating the Jazz without Doncic is what counts. While I don’t think we can count on Dallas hitting 22 threes again, Utah’s poor perimeter defense tells me that the Mavs will still make a lot of threes in this game and, defensively, the Jazz have really struggled to contain Dallas’ small-ball lineup. Again, this is a lot of points to lay in a playoff game, especially if Doncic is coming back.

The fact Doncic was upgraded to questionable seems like a sign he will play, but regardless, Dallas proved they can stick with Utah even without their best player. Remember that Game 1 was close most of the way with the Jazz only pulling away late. Utah has averaged just 101.5 PPG in the series so far and after a SU loss they are only 10-21-2 ATS this season. Donovan Mitchell needed 30 shots to get to 34 points in Game 2 while Rudy Gobert (save for rebounding) was poor at both ends. Mike Conley didn’t even score a single point as he was in foul trouble. Not saying the Mavs pull the upset, but they’ll at least keep it close. 10* Dallas

9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Though it’s officially a best of seven series, Game 3 is pretty much “do or die” for the Raptors as no one has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history. It’ll be a boost being back at home and remember because of COVID-19 protocol up in Canada, Philadelphia is going to be without one of its key reserves (Matisse Thybulle) who is unvaccinated. While that may not sound like a big deal, based on the fact Thybulle scored just eight total points in the first two games, I think the Raptors come out hot in Game 3 and make this an interesting series. Take the points.

Since 2005, teams down 0-2 in a series and returning home for Game 3 have covered roughly two-thirds of the time. So historically this is a profitable spot to back the Raptors, who are better than what they’ve shown in the first two games vs. the 76ers. In both games at Philly, things somewhat unraveled in the second quarter, leaving the Raptors to face large halftime deficits. Don’t see that happening at home where the team sees its scoring rise and number of points per game allowed go down (compared to the road). Toronto won seven of its final eight regular season home games, the lone loss coming by five to top seed Miami.

The Sixers had a surprisingly good road record in the regular season (27-14 SU), but only outscored opponents by about two points per game. As an away favorite, they are 11-12-1 ATS. In the first two games, the Sixers lived at the free throw line, getting 64 attempts and making 55. On the road, the refs are unlikely to be quite so generous. Over the course of the year, the team averaged 20 made FTs per game. So I expect a decrease in production from the charity stripe in Game 3. Perhaps most pertinent of all is the fact the Raptors are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season off three consecutive losses (they lost reg season finale). 9* Toronto

10* Under Nets/Celtics (7:05 ET): It was a Game 1 thriller on Sunday as the Celtics, after blowing a double digit lead, got the 115-114 win on a Jayson Tatum layup as time expired. As exciting as that finish was, I was a little “down in the dumps” due to the fact I was holding an Under ticket, which was a loser at 224.5. Oddsmakers have bumped the number up for Game 2 though and I’m seeing lots of value on the same bet (Under) as this is a Boston team that ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense during the regular season. I do not believe Brooklyn is going to shoot 53.8% again like they did in Game 1. 

Kyrie Irving seemingly could not miss down the stretch for the Nets as he ended up with 39 points on 12/20 shooting from the field and 9/9 from the free throw line. Kevin Durant had “only” 23 points as he shot 9/24 overall, including 1 of 5 from three-point range. Certainly, the combo of Irving and Durant is capable of producing 60+ points every night. But only two other Nets finished Game 1 in double figures and both were reserves (Claxton and Dragic). Meanwhile, four Boston starters (led by Tatum’s 31) scored 20 or more points, but the rest of the team combined for a paltry 21 points. 

I’m well aware that the Over is now 5-0 in the season series between the Nets & Celtics. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record” (from previous analysis), the playoffs are most certainly a “different animal.” There’s a good chance this could close as the highest O/U line of any of the six times the teams have met and three of the previous five closed with an O/U line of 217 pts or lower. I think that the Celtics are also due for some offensive regression (they’ve averaged 127.2 pts their L5 games) and the Under is 9-3 this season when they play with exactly two days rest. Game 2 will be lower scoring than Game 1.  10* Under Nets/Celtics

10* Over Hawks/Heat (7:35 ET): I went with the Over in Game 1 of this series, which did not hit due to Atlanta only scoring 91 points on 38.7% shooting. The team was just 10 of 36 on three-pointers with Trae Young’s 0 for 7 sticking out like a sore thumb. You may recall Young having similar struggles (1 for 7 on 3PA) in the play-in game vs. Charlotte, only to bounce back the next game (vs. Cleveland) and score 38 points. He’s only 5 for 25 from behind the arc in the L3 games, so I’m sensing Young regaining his “touch” tonight and for the Hawks to come closer to their season average of 113.8 points per game. This was the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season! 

Miami didn’t really have much trouble making shots in Game 1 as they finished at 52.4% overall, including 18 of 38 from three-point range. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, this Heat team has a variety of scoring options and on Sunday, it turned out to be Duncan Robinson leading the way as he went 8 of 9 from three-point range for a team-high 27 points. Robinson probably won’t be repeating that performance tonight, but the good news is the Heat have enough options to fill the void left by Robinson regression. Also, Atlanta is not a good defensive team; they are 26th in efficiency, which is the lowest ranking of any of the 16 playoff teams. 

I’m very surprised to see that the Hawks have gone Under nine straight times as underdogs. Look for that trend to end here though as they’ll easily top their Game 1 point total while very likely still giving up a similar number. Miami has shot better than 50% from the field in five of its last six games, never scoring fewer than 111 points in that stretch. Young’s point total (8) from Game 1 marked a season-low. It was just the sixth time that he scored 15 pts or less this season. He’s averaged 31.2 PPG after the previous five times. 10* Over Hawks/Heat

10* Under Raptors/76ers (7:30 ET): It wasn’t Joel Embiid or James Harden leading the way for the 76ers in Game 1. It was Tyrese Maxey, who had 38 points in a breakout performance. Now Maxey didn’t do it all himself as it was a huge offensive night with four players scoring 19+ and the team finishing with 131 points on 51.2% shooting, including 16 of 32 from three-point range. I can’t imagine we’ll see that kind of shooting again from Philadelphia, who is overdue for some offensive regression after averaging 125.4 points over their last five games (5-0 Over). The Sixers also made 29 free throws in Game 1, which is more than usual. 

Meanwhile, Game 1 was a largely miserable experience for Toronto, who are now likely to be without Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young for Game 2. Now the team did shoot 48.8% on Saturday and went 12 of 30 from behind the arc. That’s better than average for the Raptors. Trent, dealing with a non-COVID illness, was 2 for 11 in Game 1. Barnes and Young’s absences will be felt, however. Clearly though, if the Raptors are to have any chances of evening up this series, it has to come on the defensive end. Game 1 was just the third time all season that they allowed 130+ points. 

I’m looking for worse all-around shooting in Game 2 - from both teams. The last two times they have played, three-point shooting has been through the roof. That just can’t continue. Toronto’s only chance here is to slow the game down. Both teams ranked in the bottom six in tempo during the regular season. They also both ranked just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors’ previous six road games (before Game 1) had all stayed Under and the Under is also 5-2 the last seven times that they have been off a loss. During the regular season, the teams combined to average 36 made free throws per game. They made 48 in Game 1. 10* Under Raptors/76ers 

10* Under Nets/Celtics (3:30 ET): Unders certainly “ruled the day” in the NBA’s “Play-In Tournament,” cashing in all six games. Here we’ve got a matchup of division foes, Brooklyn and Boston, who very well could be considered the top two favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. The Nets are the seven seed, far lower than expected, but any team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving must be considered dangerous. They easily extinguished Cleveland in the play-in round, jumping out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter and winning 115-108. But they did not cover the spread.

Boston ended up with the best net efficiency and point differential among Eastern Conference teams at the end of the regular season. They are the highest rated team, in my own power rankings, in the East heading into the postseason. They ended up #2 overall in defensive efficiency and #1 in scoring defense (104.5 PPG allowed). Now this team was a bit of a scoring juggernaut down the stretch, averaging 129.8 points over its final five regular season games and going Over in 9 of the last 11. But I can’t see that continuing now that it’s playoff-time. We’ve seen similar trends so far with the play-in teams that ended the regular season in high scoring fashion. 

Over the last seven games, the only time Brooklyn went Over was the regular season finale against an Indiana team that is quite poor defensively. They are 36-19 Under this season when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. I just can’t see the Nets shooting as well here as they have in their last two games (64.2% vs. IND and 53.6% vs. CLE). The Celtics are allowing a 43.5 FG% for the year. Yes, I know all four regular season meetings did go Over the total. But at the risk of sounding like a “broken record,” the playoffs are a different animal. 10* Under Nets/Celtics

8* Over Hawks/Heat (1:00 ET): Overs made a bit of a “comeback” in the NBA playoffs on Saturday, cashing in three of the four games. That was after the first seven playoff games all stayed Under. I expect the Over “comeback” to continue in this game as division rivals Atlanta & Miami open their best of seven series. The Hawks had to win two “do or die” games just to get to this point, 132-103 over Charlotte (at home) and then 107-101 at Cleveland. I cashed the Under on both of those games. But with a lower total on this game, I’m expecting a different result. 

Despite an off-shooting night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range, Atlanta still put together a huge offensive performance against Charlotte. Of course, that was at home. Collectively, they didn’t shoot very well from three against Cleveland, making only 9 of 31 attempts. But this time Young rescued them with a 38-point performance. I obviously expect better three-point shooting Sunday from the Hawks. This is a high-scoring team (114.1 PPG) that is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency! I just can’t see them going Under for a ninth straight time as underdogs. 

Miami is the top seed in the East, boasting tremendous depth and a variety of scorers. They led the NBA in three-point shooting during the regular season (37.9%) and in four games vs. Atlanta this season, the Heat shot better than 50% overall. The Hawks aren’t a very good defensive team (they allow 112.8 PPG on the road) and after holding Charlotte/Cleveland to an average of 102 PPG, I think there’s some natural regression at that end of the floor. Four of the Heat’s last five regular season games went Over. 8* Over Hawks/Heat

10* Golden State (8:35 ET): The Warriors won their last five regular season games, all without Steph Curry, and now the former league MVP is expected back for Game 1 of this best of seven series vs. Denver. Relative to some of the other first round series, the Warriors aren’t that large of a favorite to advance here, but I see them doing so without much issue. At full strength, the Dubs are clearly a Top 5 team in the NBA and I see them rolling in Game 1 Saturday night over a Denver team that I just don’t believe in, even though they have reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic among their ranks. Lay the points. 

Curry (foot) is officially listed as probable. Note that I’m rolling with Golden State regardless. If Curry doesn’t play, then the opportunity to get a better number will be there. But barring something unforeseen, it appears he WILL play. “We expect him to play,” said Warriors’ HC Steve Kerr. The team won its last five games by an average of 13.2 PPG and its outscoring foes by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. So home court advantage for this series certainly seems significant, even though the Nuggets had a better win percentage on the road. Also key is that the Warriors finished the regular season #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That will serve them well in the playoffs. 

While the Warriors’ core of Curry-Thompson-Green SHOULD be together on the floor for Game 1, Denver will continue to be without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. While Jokic carried the team with those two out, doing so in a series against Golden State seems a lot more problematic. Yes, the Nuggets did win three of the four regular season matchups. But Golden State won the last one, led by Curry’s 34 points. Denver is just nowhere as good defensively (18th in efficiency) and they are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Golden State

9* Under Raptors/76ers (6:05 ET): Taking the full advantage of both Chicago & Cleveland falling apart down the stretch, Toronto moved up into fifth place in the East and will now face a Philadelphia team they were victorious against three times in four regular season meetings. The Raptors have lost only four times since March 7th and one of those came in the utterly meaningless regular season finale. Let it be known the Raptors beat the 76ers in both meetings after the latter acquired James Harden. So the team from “North of the Border” certainly seems like a “live dog” in Game 1. But I’m not sure they’re going to score a ton of points on Saturday. 

Philadelphia's last four regular season games all went Over, one of them being a 119-114 loss in Toronto. The total here is lower, somewhat curiously, but I seriously doubt we’ll see the teams shoot as well from three-point range here as they did in that last matchup when they combined to make nearly 50 percent from behind the arc. Two of the Sixers’ last four games saw them top 130 points, but both of those were against the horrendous Pacers. It’s playoff time, and even with Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are due for a bit of a scoring decline. 

Both teams rank just outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency and are bottom six in pace. That combo leads me to believe that Game 1 will be lower scoring than expected. Both teams scored less this season when matched up with division opponents. The last time they met here in Philly, which was less than a month ago, the final score was 93-88. Harden has averaged just 15.0 PPG against the Raptors as a member of the Sixers. Toronto is 19-7 Under its L26 road games. 9* Under Raptors/76ers

8* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:05 ET): I hit side and total when the Clippers lost 109-104 in Minnesota on Tuesday. The Under was never really in doubt as the O/U line closed at 231. The Clippers thought they were on their way to the playoffs when they were up 10 in the fourth quarter and Karl Anthony-Towns fouled out. But it was not to be as they finished with just 20 points in the 4Q. As I said in the previous writeup, they were due for an “off-night” offensively after closing the regular season with five straight wins where they averaged 128 PPG. I think that carries over to tonight. 

New Orleans was able to run away from San Antonio early and hold on for a 113-103 win Wednesday. That was my only loss in the play-in round as I took the Spurs plus the points. That play had more to do with what I thought was an underrated Spurs’ side. Tip your cap to the Pelicans for their performance, but I don’t think the team’s three leading scorers (McCollum, Ingram, Valanciunas) will be as efficient as they were in the last game when they combined to shoot 32 of 56 from the field (57.1%) and score 81 points. Note the rest of the team scored just 32 points. On the road, role players contribute less and the Under is 26-15 in Pelicans’ away games this season.

The Under has cashed in four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams, both of whom surprisingly ranked OUTSIDE the top 10 in the Western Conference in points per game. Looking back to the regular season, the two games here in Los Angeles were higher scoring than the two in New Orleans, but the Clips were only able to top 104 pts against the Pelicans once and that was a relatively meaningless affair late in the year. The Pelicans will NOT shoot 54% again (like they did vs. SA) as the Clips have held their L5 opponents to 40.7% shooting and 100.8 PPG. 8* Under Pelicans/Clippers

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Home teams won each of the first four play-in games, but bettors sure don’t seem to like Cleveland’s chances here. That’s probably because, in addition to a poor finish to the regular season, the Cavaliers fell into an early 20-point hole against the Nets (by the end of the first quarter) and never really recovered on Tuesday. But they did cover the spread in that game (only road team to cover this week) and they have an added day of preparation here, plus the home court edge. There’s also the possibility that All-Star Jarrett Allen returns, which would be significant for the Cavs. 

Atlanta blew out Charlotte 132-103 in their first play-in matchup, but unlike Cleveland, the Hawks have to win twice to make the playoffs. The Hawks scored 132 despite an off-night from leading scorer Trae Young, who was 8 of 24 overall and 1 of 7 from three-point range. That has to be terrifying for a Cleveland team that let Young, who averaged 32.5 PPG in the four regular season meetings. But while Young’s overall shooting is bound to improve (compared to Wednesday), I don’t think you can expect the Hawks’ supporting cast to shoot as well as they did Wednesday now that they’re on the road.

Atlanta is not a particularly good road team (16-25 SU) and sees its scoring average dip to 111.2 PPG. They go from facing a Hornets team that was dead last in the East in scoring defense to a Cleveland team that is top five in the NBA in scoring defense. The Under is 25-15-1 in Cavs’ home games this season with them allowing just 103.7 PPG. Allen’s return (he is questionable) would be huge at the defensive end. Home teams aren’t the only thing that have been perfect so far in the play-in round; Unders are 4-0 as well. Atlanta did a good job defensively Weds against a Charlotte team that is 4th in the league in scoring. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

10* San Antonio (9:30 ET): The winner of this game will move on to face the LOSER of Clippers-T’wolves (played on Tuesday) to determine who is the #8 seed (and face Phoenix in the first round) for the Western Conference playoffs. Despite finishing with their second worst win percentage EVER under HC Gregg Popovich, the Spurs should have finished with a far better record. Based on their point differential, they should have a winning record, not be 14 games below .500. Only Boston and Utah underperformed their Pythagorean win total more. I’m on the Spurs Weds to at least cover. Honestly, I expect them to win here. 

The Spurs won and covered three of the four regular season matchups with the Pelicans. Significant is that they were 2-1 SU/ATS in the three matchups after NO acquired CJ McCollum. The Pelicans were definitely a better team after the All-Star Break, but they have the worst expected win percentage of any team still playing. They are also a bottom five team in three-point shooting. Both Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas remain on the injury report (as questionable) for Weds. While I expect one or both to play, those would be massive losses for a game of this magnitude.

The Spurs should enter this game relatively healthy. Leading scorer Dejounte Murray is the first player in NBA HISTORY to average 20-9-8 (points-rebounds-assists) over the course of an entire season. The Spurs are 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, the third best record in that situation in the league. They also have the best money line record as road dogs, having posted 12 outright wins. The Spurs’ losing record on the road (straight up) is highly misleading as they scored more than they allowed in those games. They are the better team in this matchup, so I’m definitely taking the points. 10* San Antonio

9* Under Hornets/Hawks (7:05 ET): A win here does not guarantee either the Hornets or Hawks a playoff opportunity, rather the winner will head to Cleveland Friday for a game to determine the East’s 8-seed. Charlotte is back in the play-in tournament for a second straight year. Last year, they lost in this 9-10 game, 144-117 to Indiana, ending their season. For Atlanta, being here is a drop from last year when they entered the playoffs as a 5-seed and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a VERY high total for two teams familiar with one another and I’m playing the Under. 

Hornets’ games - on average - are the highest scoring in the entire NBA. They average 230.2 PPG, but even that wouldn’t be enough to go Over this number. During the regular season, the Hornets went Over 41 times and Under 41 times. But when facing a team with a winning record (Atlanta is 43-39 SU), the Under is 27-13. I don’t expect Charlotte to shoot as well as they did over the L5 regular season games (53.5%) nor do I believe they’ll allow Atlanta to shoot 50.9%, which was the FG% allowed by the Hornets to those same L5 opponents. 

Three of the four regular season meetings between the Hawks & Hornets stayed Under, including the most recent one (a 116-106 Charlotte win). Only once did these Southeast Division rivals combine for more than 222 points in the regular season. Similar to Charlotte, Atlanta is 12-2 Under its last 14 games vs. teams with winning records. Do the Hawks score a lot at home? Yes. But their home games still only average 228.4 PPG. In the playoffs, scoring goes down. 9* Under Hornets/Hawks

10* Minnesota (9:30 ET): The Timberwolves did not finish the regular season particularly strong (3-4 SU/1-6 ATS L7) but that’s not at all indicative of how they played most of the way. This team’s statistical profile is much more “on par” with the likes of Dallas and Denver than it is with the rest of the “play-in” teams. Case in point, the T’wolves had a better point differential and net efficiency rating compared to the sixth placed Nuggets. Getting this game at home is huge for a young team and I expect them to advance by defeating the Clippers Tuesday. 

Conversely, the Clippers did finish the regular season quite well, winning their final five games by an average of more than 25 PPG. While that’s obviously quite impressive, consider four of the wins were at home, the last three all coming against non-contending (Sacramento, OKC) or disinterested (Phoenix) teams. The return of Paul George obviously makes this a stronger team, but it’s hard to look past the fact that even with the strong finish, LA was downright mediocre this year. They are 2-8 ATS in their L10 games against teams that are .500 or better. 

Of the eight teams (East & West) involved in the play-in tournament, I’ve got Minnesota rated as the best. They were 1-3 SU/ATS head to head vs. LA in the regular season, but the three losses were all before Thanksgiving and that’s a long time ago. They won in LA 122-104 on January 3rd. Since the New Year, the T’wolves are 30-16 SU and they have the fifth best SU record in the league since the All-Star Break. It would be a shame if this team didn’t make the playoffs proper. They are 25-18-1 ATS when favored, so whether or not D’Angelo Russell plays, I’m laying the short number. 10* Minnesota

8* Under Clippers/T’wolves (9:30 ET): Getting this game at home is big for Minnesota, but also for the Under. T’wolves’ games are simply far lower scoring at home than on the road. While their road games average a somewhat stunning 236.6 points per game, at home that number drops down to 221.8. Most of that scoring decline can be traced to the team’s improved play at the defensive end. They allow just 108.4 PPG at home, nearly 10 PPG less than what they allow on the road. They also allow 5.0 PPG less. So I’m going with the Under Tuesday. 

The Clippers have seen a huge uptick in their scoring over the last five games, all of which they won. They’ve averaged 128 PPG during the win streak, which began with a stunning 153-point effort against the Bucks. Shockingly, that was a game where both teams rested star players. Most of the Clippers’ games down the stretch lacked “playoff intensity” as the opponent was either a non-contender (Sacramento, OKC) or had nothing to play for (Phoenix). 

If this O/U line holds, it will be just the second time all season that a Clippers’ game closes with a 230+ point total. So I think there’s value in the Under. Bottom line: the Clippers are due for an “off-night” at the offensive end and I’ve already gone through the huge difference in scoring between Minnesota home and road games. The T’wolves last five opponents have combined to shoot 53.4%, but that’s not going to hold here as they allow a FG% of just 43.7% at home for the year. Keep an eye on the status of PG Russell (illness), obviously. 8* Under Clippers/T’wolves

10* Oklahoma City (9:40 ET): The Clippers seem to be on a bit of a roll as they head towards the play-in tournament. They’ve won four straight, the latest coming yesterday when they defeated Sacramento 117-98 as a 12-point favorite. I cashed the Under in that game, a play which was never really in doubt. What is in doubt for today, however, is the Clips’ motivation. This is the second game of a back to back, plus they know they are heading to Minnesota Tuesday for their shot to make the playoffs. I do not think the home team will be in the mindset to win their regular season finale by double digits. 

Meanwhile, I know that the Thunder have NOTHING to play for here, but I also think that makes them a somewhat “dangerous” dog in this spot. As was expected, it was another long season in OKC as the Thunder will finish second to last in the Western Conference, ahead of only Houston. They’ve been blown out in back to back games, but look for there to be a sense of pride here in avoiding that fate a third straight time. There are a good number of Thunder players unavailable, but it’s not like the Clippers are going all out Sunday. 

In three of the last four games, the Clippers have made 20+ three pointers. They were 21 of 43 from behind the arc yesterday. I just can’t see the shots continuing to fall at that high of a percentage, even in a game where defensive intensity may not be at its highest. I am anticipating a disinterested favorite in this one, and laying such a big number makes them a prime fade opportunity. Especially with this being the second night of a back to back. The Clips are just 5-8 SU this season in the 2nd night of a B2B. They may want to win (to finish the reg season above .500), but not by double digits. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Under Kings/Clippers (9:40 ET): With three games still to play, the Clippers are already locked into the 8-seed in the Western Conference. They know that they’ll be facing the T’wolves in the play-in tournament with the winner moving on to the playoffs proper. The loser will get a second chance against the Pelicans-Spurs winner. Sacramento, as per usual, fell out of contention long ago. It’s all about pride for them at this point, but they’ve shown little of that lately with B2B double digit losses at home.

The Kings actually haven’t played since Tuesday when they fell 123-109 to New Orleans. They shot 51% from the field, but it wasn’t enough as they allowed the Pelicans to shoot the same percentage with more attempts. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of combined shooting in this game. Sacramento is without De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are their top two scorers.

These division rivals haven’t met since December when they played three times. This total is much higher than any of those three previous meetings. The total number of points scored across the three meetings decreased every game, culminating with only 194 being scored in the last one. The Clippers, who are due for some offensive regression, have also held their last two opponents to a combined FG% below 40.0. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Kings/Clippers

10* Over Wizards/Knicks (7:10 ET): Consider this a “battle for 11th place” in the Eastern Conference, although that’s a relatively meaningless distinction as you need to finish top 10 to qualify for the play-in round. So it’s little more than “pride” on the line Friday night when the Knicks and Wizards take the court. These teams have met two times previously this season. The first was on X-Mas Day and they blew past the total (208) with the Wiz winning 124-117 as 2.5-point underdogs. The total was much higher for the rematch last month (225.5) and that time they didn’t come close to matching it as the Knicks won 100-97. 

Now this play is a departure from the last time I played the total with the Knicks, which was just two days ago when they lost to the Knicks 110-98. That didn’t even come close to going Over as the number closed at 230. Glad I had the Under then. The Under is now 6-1 in the Knicks’ last seven games as they remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA. But here they’re matched up with a team that plays little to no defense. Washington is allowing 117.8 PPG over its last five contests and like the Knicks, the O/U line for the Wizards’ last game was much higher than this one. So was the previous game, for that matter. 

Washington had gone Over in four straight before losing to Atlanta 118-103 on Wednesday. Now that final score would have obviously gone over this total. The previous four Wizards’ games all saw a minimum of 237 total points scored. In four of their last seven games, they have scored 123+ pts. Expect the Knicks to shoot better here than they did on Wednesday (just 38.6%) when they scored just 31 points in the second half. The Over is 7-1 the L8 times NY has been off a DD loss at home. The Wizards will shoot better from three tonight compared to the Atlanta game when they were just 10 of 35. They also attempted only 11 free throws in that game. They are 9-1 Over L10 home games. 10* Over Wizards/Knicks

10* Denver (9:10 ET): This is a critical game for the Nuggets, who need one win in their last two games to avoid falling into the play-in round. On Tuesday, they blew their first chance at clinching with a horrendous effort here at home, losing 116-97 to short-handed San Antonio, a game where the Nuggets closed as nine-point favorites! In addition to trying to avoid the play-in round, Denver can still move up to fifth in the West. That would be advantageous as it’s likely Golden State will finish third and the Nuggets would like to avoid them seeing as Steph Curry is expected back for the start of the playoffs. 

Not only did Denver shoot itself in the foot Tuesday night, their task of moving up the standings was made more difficult when both Dallas and Utah (the two teams in front of them) both won. The Nuggets can no longer earn home court advantage in the first round, but like I said earlier they can pass Utah and move into fifth. The current gap between the Jazz and Nuggets is one game. I see Denver being tremendously motivated to win on Thursday; not just for playoff seeding purposes, but they are also 0-3 this season vs. Memphis, so there’s some revenge in the Rocky Mountain air tonight. 

The Grizzlies team that takes the floor this evening won’t really resemble the one that’s previously beaten the Nuggets three teams. Already locked into the 2-seed in the West, the Grizzlies are letting several injured players rest, most notably Ja Morant. The Grizz have a shockingly good SU record w/o Morant so far, but Brooks, Tillie and Terry are also all out and the team could not overcome all the absences Tuesday (when we faded them) in an OT loss at Utah. I don’t see Memphis’ intensity matching Denver’s tonight. Despite being 0-3 SU vs. the Grizz in 2021-22, the Nuggets led at the half in all three games. 10* Denver

9* Over Magic/Hornets (7:10 ET): I don’t expect much defense to be played in this Thursday NBA tilt. Certainly Charlotte hasn’t been playing good defense recently. They’ve allowed 144 points in B2B games, which is absolutely abysmal yet this is the team with the worst scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets allow 115.1 PPG for the season, so they should feel rather fortunate to be heading for the play-in tournament next week where they’ll likely have to win twice. Of course, being a top five team offensively (114.8 PPG) is why they’ve still got a shot at making the playoffs. 

Orlando just hung 120 on Cleveland Tuesday in an admittedly uncharacteristic show of offensive strength. The Magic will NOT be heading to the postseason this year; in fact they’re all but guaranteed at finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference. That win over Cleveland snapped a six-game losing streak and came on the heels of two sorry offensive efforts where they failed to score 90 points in consecutive games. We probably can’t count on the Magic scoring 120 again tonight, but consider their defense is lousy (112.0 PPG allowed this season) and five of their last seven opponents have scored at least 114. 

Whomever the road team has been, they have won the previous three head to head meetings this season. After losing to the Hornets twice at home early in the season, the Magic returned the favor with a 116-109 win here in Charlotte back in January (as 11-point underdogs!) While the Magic are not an offensive juggernaut, it should be pointed out that the Hornets have allowed the last two opponents to shoot 59% from the field overall and make 44 three-pointers. On average, no other team in the league plays higher scoring games than Charlotte (229.9 PPG). 9* Over Magic/Hornets

10* Under Celtics/Bulls (8:10 ET): Boston has been scoring A LOT of points recently. They are coming off a 144-point effort (against Washington) on Sunday (I won with the Over) and before that won 128-123 over Indiana. Robert Williams is out (until at least the second round of the playoffs), but the Celtics certainly haven’t skipped a beat offensively as they shot a blistering 61.5% vs. the Wizards and made 23 three-pointers! They can’t possibly repeat that performance tonight in Chicago as it’s a “packed” injury report for this evening. Brown, Tatum and Horford are probable. But, in addition to Williams, Morgan and Stauskas are also out. Look for some serious offensive regression from the C’s tonight. 

I say that knowing full well how the Bulls have struggled defensively the last few games, and really the entire second half of the season. Chicago has given up 127+ points in each of its last three games, including a 127-106 loss last night to Milwaukee here at home. Lonzo Ball’s season is likely over with, but it’s not all bad for the Bulls as they did clinch a top six spot in the playoffs (due to Cleveland losing), so they’ll avoid the play-in tournament. But this team has little “momentum” (still hate that word) heading into the postseason. I’d argue they are the weakest of the 10 teams still viable in the East 

Seeding is all that’s on the line for these two teams in the last few remaining games. Chicago is expected to get Zach LaVine back after he sat out last night. But, other than DeMar DeRozan, the rest of LaVine’s teammates did very little against Milwaukee. Take away DeRozan’s numbers and the Bulls shot just 36% last night. Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows only 104.3 PPG. They are 8-2 Under this season when playing on exactly two days' rest. The Bulls are 4-0 Under their L4 times in a back to back. 10* Under Celtics/Bulls.

8* Under Nets/Knicks (7:40 ET): I’m going with the Nets Under again after cashing that particular wager last night. The total closed at a very high 244.5 last night vs. Houston, a season-high for the Nets. The O/U result was never really in doubt as the game ended 118-105 in Brooklyn’s favor. That was a needed win for the Nets, who are looking to finish 8th in the East as that would mean they’d only need to win once in the play-in tournament (which they are now guaranteed to be a part of). It’s another also-ran on the docket for tonight as the Nets will face a Knicks team that is eliminated from playoff contention.

New York hasn’t played since Sunday - when they crushed Orlando 118-88 in an utterly meaningless game. So they’ll have the significant rest advantage coming into this game. Despite losing all three times, the Knicks have played the Nets tough this year as the three losses have been by a combined 10 points, none greater than five. Also, the most combined points in any of the games was 222. Tonight’s O/U line is notably higher than any of the three previous meetings. Now Kyrie Irving, coming off a 42-point game last night is now in the mix. But let’s see how he does in a rare back to back. My guess is that he won’t be as prolific as last night. He’d shot just 26% the previous five games.

The Nets are also short-handed right now without Curry, Dragic and Johnson. (Note: there is a chance Dragic and/or Johnson could suit up). This team has been really bad on the second night of a back to back this season, going just 2-11 SU and averaging 106.7 PPG. The Knicks are one of the league’s lowest scoring teams at 106.5 PPG (27th) and also are tied for 27th in pace. For both teams, the Under is 5-1 in their last six games. 8* Under Nets/Knicks

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A San Antonio team that has actually outscored its opponents this season (despite being 12 games below .500!) deserves to make the play-in round. After winning six of seven, the Spurs are now 10th in the West, two games up on the floundering Lakers. The remaining schedule will not be easy though; as they face four of the top six teams in the Conference. The status of leading scorer Dejounte Murray (illness) remains in question for tonight. While the Spurs won their last game without him, they won’t have the luxury of facing Portland again here on Tuesday.

While the Spurs are simply trying to scrape their way into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are hoping to avoid that exercise entirely. Denver is currently fifth, two games up on seventh place Minnesota. All they are looking to do is finish in the top six. Led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, points have been plentiful of late as the Nuggets have scored 125+ points in five of the last seven games. The Over is 8-2 the L10 games. But the shooting we’ve seen from them over the L3 games (62.5%, 53.5% and 57.3%) is certainly due to subside. For the year, their games average 222.3 PPG, which is well below tonight’s O/U line. 

San Antonio hopes to have both Murray and Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I don’t think the Spurs will keep scoring at the level we’ve seen recently. They’ve gotten to face Portland three times in the last seven games, not to mention Houston (who is 30th in scoring defense). The Under is 16-5 in the Spurs’ last 21 games following an ATS win and 6-1 the L7 times they’ve been off a double digit win. As I already mentioned, Denver is unlikely to keep up its FG% from the L3 games, so I’m rolling with the Under on this high total. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

8* Utah (9:10 ET): This is a huge game for the Jazz, who have fallen to sixth in the Western Conference despite having the league’s fourth best point differential. They have lost six of their last seven games, also going 1-6 ATS (0-7 ATS for some, depending on the result of the game against the Lakers). An inability to hold big leads has cost Utah dearly this season as Sunday marked the 15th time they had a double digit lead and lost. That was to a Steph Curry-less Warriors team and they were up by as many as 21 before losing 111-107. I am expecting a big bounce back performance from the Jazz, at home, here tonight. 

The last time Utah was off a stunning loss like what happened Sunday, I took them the next time out and they covered for me. That was against the Lakers as I had the Jazz -12 and they won 122-109. Here, the line is a lot shorter. While that’s for good reason (Memphis is very good), the opponent has nothing to play for on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are already locked into the second seed for the playoffs and will also be playing short-handed. Not only is Ja Morant out, but five other players are listed as questionable on the injury report, including Tillie, Bane, Jackson, Adams and Jones.

Having to worry about 7th place Minnesota (1.5 games back) will have the Jazz supremely motivated for this one. It would be almost incomprehensible for the Jazz to fall into the play-in tournament. I still have them rated as a top five team in the league. I think their goal would be to avoid the Warriors (who are currently third) in the first round, so finishing fifth would have its benefits. I know Memphis has won seven straight and 10 of 11, but Utah will be the more motivated team on Tuesday, especially after blowing that big lead Sunday, so I am laying the points. The Jazz outscore teams by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. 8* Utah

10* Under Rockets/Nets (7:40 ET): This is an absurdly high total, even for a matchup of the team that plays the worst defense in the NBA (Houston) and one of the more prolific offensive squads (Brooklyn). We’ve obviously seen some high scoring games involving the Nets recently. However, with these high totals, the Under is actually 4-1 their L5 games. Only one of those five contests would have gone Over tonight’s total, which is the highest O/U line yet for a Nets game this season! I’m taking the Under here. 

Even Houston having given up an average of 120.6 points over its last five games doesn’t have me too concerned here. For the season, they give up 118.1, most in the league. The last four games have all gone Over, but that’s with the Rockets averaging over 120 PPG themselves, which is well above their season average. For the year, the team is averaging 107.4 PPG on the road. So I expect some real offensive regression from the road team in this one. In their last game, they shot 56.5% from the field. That won’t happen again here. The Rockets are 17-4 Under after a game where they scored 130+ points, including 3-0 this season. 

 Speaking of “offensive regression,” Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant will not be matching his scoring output from Saturday’s game in Atlanta where he had 55 points (in a loss!). The Nets also could be without Seth Curry, Bruce Brown and Goran Dragic for tonight’s game. Kyrie Irving is shooting just 26.6% his L5 games. As a team, Brooklyn averages fewer PPG at home than on the road. On the bright side, the Nets won’t be sending Houston to the free throw line 49 times like they did against Atlanta. The Nets should win this one easily and the game likely being a blowout should mean fewer points in the fourth quarter, helping our cause. 10* Under Rockets/Nets

10* Kansas (9:20 ET): Ok. As previously noted, only one of the previous 20 NCAAB National Champions (2014 UConn) didn’t rank in the top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. The Jayhawks are the team that fits the bill here in 2022 as they are sixth in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency. So if the trend holds, then Bill Self will bring another title to Lawrence. North Carolina has been a tremendous story, ending Coach K’s run on Saturday, but they were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament and 39th in defensive efficiency. I’m laying the points Monday night. 

Though their lead was cut to six in the second half, I never sensed Kansas was in any real danger Saturday night against Villanova. They raced out to a 10-0 lead to start the game and were up 38-19 before halftime. While ‘Nova was without Justin Moore, beating them wire to wire is a real feather in the cap for the Jayhawks, who have been incredible defensively in this tournament, holding all five opponents below 40% shooting. Only Villanova shot better than 36% from the floor. 

I mentioned earlier that KU got to face Villanova without Justin Moore. Here they’ll get UNC with a hobbled Armando Bacot. Bacot is the Tar Heels’ leading scorer and rebounder. He’s third in the country in rebounding. Hubert Davis doesn’t have a lot of depth down low, so an injured Bacot is certainly ill-timed. He’s going to play, but won’t be 100 percent and was clearly bothered by the injured ankle in the second half vs. Duke. It honestly shocks me that UNC has made it thus far and they easily could have lost three of their last four games. Kansas has been the better team all season and it would be downright stunning to me if they didn’t win here. 10* Kansas

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Here we’ve got two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the second game of a back to back. Both won yesterday afternoon. Philadelphia blew out Charlotte 144-114. Cleveland was a 119-101 winner in New York. At this point, the 76ers are just trying to ensure they finish in the top four and have home court advantage for the first round. They are 2.5 games behind top seed Miami. The Cavaliers’ current standing is more perilous as they are facing the prospect of the play-in round. They’ve fallen to 7th place and are two games back of sixth place Chicago. 

I think the Cavs, at home, will want this one more. There’s obviously a huge benefit to finishing in the top six. Philly is going to be in the top four and that’s all that they care about. James Harden and Joel Embiid may both sit tonight. The Cavs will definitely be without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but that’s not as significant as Harden and Embiid. The real key for Cleveland is getting back to the kind of defense we saw from them in the first half of the season. At home, they are giving up just 103.2 PPG, third fewest in the league. I think we’ll see a strong effort at the defensive end here. 

The Cavs are 0-3 SU vs. the Sixers this year, including a pair of losses in March. But for this triple revenge spot, they are getting points at home and I like that. Philadelphia had lost three in a row before yesterday’s win. In the last two meetings, Cleveland led by eight at the half the first time and then only lost by four the second time. Fingers crossed that Harden and/or Embiid sits, but either way I like Cleveland getting points in this matchup, which is quite critical for them. They are top six in the East in net efficiency and point differential. 10* Cleveland

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (1:10 ET): I believe Boston is the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference (for the NBA Finals), but for now the team is going to miss Robert Williams, who was one of their best defenders. Williams is out until at least the start of the second round of the playoffs after suffering a torn meniscus last weekend. Without him, the Celtics dropped two in a row, losing to Toronto (in OT) and Miami. But they bounced back on Friday with a 128-123 win over Indiana. Still, in three of the last four games, Boston has surrendered 110 or more points. They’ll be challenged again defensively here, facing a team that has put up 262 points its last two games. 

While Boston is battling for a high seed in the East, Washington has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. But the Wizards aren’t rolling over. They’ve won four of five and just destroyed Dallas 135-103 on Friday. They had a pair of 41-point quarters in that game and got a season-high 35 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While I do not anticipate the team will be able to match its hot three-point shooting from the last game (17 of 33), at the same time the Wiz are also probably due for some defensive regression. Dallas shot only 29% from beyond the arc on Friday. The Wiz typically allow a much higher percentage. 

I know that none of the previous nine head to head meetings have gone Over in regulation. But this is a prolific Boston team still hoping to finish first in the East. They are currently third in the East, two games behind first place Miami and just a half game behind second place Milwaukee. They are also just a half game ahead of fourth place Philadelphia. The Celtics have scored 124 or more points in six of its last eight games. Washington has scored 123 or more in three of its last four games. The Celtics are 3-0 Over as home favorites of 12.5 or more points this season while the Wizards are 4-0 Over their L4 games following a SU win by 10+ points. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (8:49 ET): Think this game might have some interest? Improbably, in the midst of Coach K’s final run, we’ve got a Duke-North Carolina National Semifinal. This is a rematch from the regular season finale, also Coach K’s final ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Tar Heels came in and ruined the party with a 94-81 upset (as 11-point underdogs!). I made a “wrong call” with the Under that night. (Total was 153). For the sixth straight time, a Duke-UNC meeting went Over the total. But, perhaps stubbornly, I feel this one will be different. I cashed a Duke Under in Round 1. That’s the play here. 

Duke has been the exception to the “Tournament rule” to this point. The Under went 10-1-1 last weekend in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The Blue Devils’ 78-73 win over Texas Tech was the lone Over. Their 78-69 win over Arkansas was the push. The Over is now 8-1-1 in Duke’s L10 games. But again, given the shooting we’ve seen in this tournament so far, can the Blue Devils really continue to be immune from an “off-shooting” night? This is the highest O/U line for any Duke tournament game thus far and three of the previous four would have stayed Under. Shooting in the cavernous Superdome (New Orleans) could be a problem - for both teams. 

Carolina did allow 80 in regulation to Baylor in Round 2. But other than that, they have not allowed more than 66 in any other game. Three of the four opponents have shot 25% or worse from three-point range. The Tar Heels have not shot all that well themselves in the last two games, both of which stayed Under. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

10* Miami (8:10 ET): Though I don’t think they deserve to, it looks as if Chicago is likely to finish in the Eastern Conference’s top six and thus avoid the play-in round. Of the top six, the Bulls easily have the worst YTD point differential and net efficiency. In fact, they are behind 7th place Cleveland as well as Brooklyn and Atlanta in both regards. Though the Bulls did manage to come from behind and beat the Clippers in OT on Thursday, their ATS record since the All-Star remains a poor 5-12 ATS. 

It’s not just the underlying metrics that make me skeptical of this Bulls team. They have also been PUTRID against the league’s best teams. They are 1-19 SU in their L20 games against teams with the top nine records in the league. That includes 0-3 vs. the Heat, who they host here. The last four times that Chicago has faced a team with a win percentage of .600 or better, they have lost by at least 15 points. Don’t look for tonight to go any different as the last two meetings with the Heat have been decided by a total of 29 points.

After going cold for a bit, Miami posted B2B wins to end March and thus continues to lead the East with a 49-28 SU record. They are now one game up on the Bucks, who got crushed last night. But two other teams (Celtics, Sixers) are within 2.5 games as well. So the Heat can’t afford to take any nights off here. They are off a huge win in Boston on Thursday as four of the five starters scored 14 or more points. The Heat also held the Celtics to 15 points in the fourth quarter. With that win, they are now 8-1-1 ATS L10 road games. Lay the points. 10* Miami

10* Over Villanova/Kansas (6:09 ET): So Villanova’s last three games have all gone Under. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, the number of total points scored in games involving the Wildcats has steadily decreased (140-132-118-94). So has Nova’s three point shooting (46.4%-34.8%-30.0%-23.8%). Though their Final Four opponent is holding teams below 35% overall shooting for the Tournament, I believe Nova’s shooting and the number of total points per game here are due to INCREASE. For the season, Jay Wright’s team averages 71.9 PPG. This team (and this Tournament) is due for an uptick in scoring. 

When it comes to the expectation of how Kansas will shoot the basketball on Saturday, I have the same view as I do for Villanova. The Jayhawks have already scored 76+ points in three of their four tourney wins, so I really have less of a concern about their offense. I know that Villanova’s last two opponents have shot 34.4% and 29.8% respectively. But can the Wildcats REALLY count on such putrid three-point shooting from their opponents again? Houston missed 19 of 20 3PA against them in the Elite 8! Kansas averages 78.3 PPG for the season and is #7 in the country in offensive efficiency.

Villanova is not far behind, ranking 9th nationally in offensive efficiency. Their three-point shooting, like I said earlier, HAS to get better on Saturday. At the same time, Kansas can’t count on the sort of good fortune they’ve had from the last two opponents putting up bricks. Providence and Miami missed 37 of 44 three-point tries, a stunning bit of futility. This is the lowest O/U line of the tournament for Kansas. Three regular season totals were lower and all either went Over or pushed. I think we’ll see MUCH better shot making in this particular Final Four matchup. 10* Over Villanova/Kansas

10* Minnesota (9:10 ET): I’ve got the T’wolves rated as the better team here, despite recent form. Since the All-Star Break, they had posted the NBA’s second best net efficiency rating. That was until dropping four of their last five games, which seemingly leaves them resigned to the 7-seed and play-in round in the Western Conference. Right now, Minnesota faces a three-game deficit with five to play. The team they are chasing (Denver) is the opponent tonight and a win here would not only close the gap, but ensures Minny holds the tiebreaker. They should be favored in the last four games, so look for a top-notch effort on Friday. 

The Nuggets have won their last three games, so not only are they thinking about holding onto the 6-seed, they’ve got the potential for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs on their mind. They are only two games back of third place, a tighter gap than what exists between them and the T’wolves, in what could be a wild finish. Note however that Denver’s three-game win streak has come at the expense of two bad teams (OKC, Indiana) and Charlotte. All three wins were by seven points or less, although they did have a huge early lead on Indiana Wednesday. But they shot 62.5% in that game, a number they won’t come close to matching here. 

Minnesota also had a big 1H lead on Weds, but could not hold it and ended up losing in a blowout to Toronto. That game saw a massive 40-point swing. Karl-Anthony Towns scored only 16 points on just 13 field goal attempts, so I think it’s more than reasonable to expect a bounce back performance from the T’wolves’ leading scorer tonight. Something worth noting is that the team averages more PPG on the road (117.5) than they do at home (112.9). They are actually the league’s highest scoring road team! Take the points. 10* Minnesota

8* Under Suns/Grizzlies (8:10 ET): These teams will be the top two seeds in the Western Conference come playoff time. Phoenix, who is way out in front of everybody, has already clinched the top spot and matched a franchise record for wins (62) after prevailing in each of their last nine games. Clearly, the Suns have been the best team in the league this season. Memphis is second in the West, 8.5 games back of the Suns, and is on its own win streak right now (six in a row). Even more impressive is that they are doing it without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are an incredible 19-2 SU this season when Morant is NOT in the lineup.

With the lack of stakes, this game will hardly resemble a “playoff-like atmosphere.” However, I still expect strong defensive efforts and this one to go Under the total. The last three Grizzlies’ games have all stayed Under. One would think that with Morant out, the scoring would suffer. But the key to the win streak has been holding four of the last six opponents to 103 points or less. I do think that not having Morant will hurt the Grizz in this matchup, at the offensive end. The team has shot better than its average from three-point range in five of the last six games and I don’t see that continuing here. 

It appears as if Memphis will be sitting several players tonight. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Killian Tillie are all listed as doubtful or OUT. This is a team that relies on its depth, but I have little faith in the “skeleton crew” that will take the floor in this game. Phoenix has to be happy about it, especially after holding Philadelphia and Golden State to 104 and 103 points respectively in the last two games. None of the previous five Suns-Grizzlies encounters have seen more than 227 total points scored. This one won’t either. 8* Under Suns/Grizzlies

10* Over Fresno St/Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): Lacking in the pageantry of tomorrow’s Final Four, or even last night’s NIT Final, we’ve got the Championship Game in the inaugural “Basketball Classic” on tap tonight. Fresno State has beaten Eastern Washington, Youngstown State and Southern Utah to get here. That’s a real “rogue’s gallery” of opponents and all three wins were at home. While still favored, the Bulldogs now have to hit the road to face a Coastal Carolina team that’s beaten MD-Eastern Shore, Florida Gulf Coast and South Alabama in this tournament. The Chanticleers’ last win was as close as it gets as they won at South Alabama, in overtime, on a three-pointer with one second remaining. 

Both these teams have solid defensive numbers. Coastal Carolina gives up only 62.2 PPG at home this season and held South Alabama to 60 in regulation on Monday. But this team can score as well. They average 76.7 PPG at home and this one is in Conway where we last saw them put up 84 on Florida Gulf Coast. This will almost certainly close as the lowest O/U line for any CC game all season, home or road. 

Fresno State is actually top four in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.9 PPG. But they give up slightly more per game on the road. Though they ended up scoring “only” 67 pts in the semifinal win against Southern Utah, the Bulldogs did shoot 50% overall from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. In the first two games of this tournament, they scored 80 and 83 points. I don’t think that FSU is going to be able to hold Coastal Carolina to the kind of numbers we saw against Southern Utah, who shot just 31.1% overall and 4 of 20 from three-point range. This is the lowest O/U of the tournament for FSU. 10* Over Fresno State/Coastal Carolina

8* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz have somehow fallen down into sixth place in the Western Conference, despite possessing the fourth best YTD point differential in the entire NBA. They are, not coincidentally, in the top four of my own personal power rankings (3rd). However, a win would be nice after a disastrous road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU/ATS overall and lose the last five games. Without question, the most demoralizing defeat of the bunch occurred Tuesday when they blew a 25-point lead and lost 121-115 to the Clippers. I believe the Jazz will be “out for blood” in their return home Thursday against the Lakers. 

The Lakers are in trouble. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both remain out and the team holds a tenuous half game lead over San Antonio for the final spot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Lakers are getting in. They have a worse statistical profile than the Spurs and have just FOUR wins since the All-Star Break. Five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field and they just gave up 128 points to Dallas on Tuesday. Whereas I think Utah is much better than its won-loss record, the Lakers are worse than their WL record, a damning statement considering they are already 13 games below .500. 

If you can believe this, the Lakers are going for their second season sweep of the Jazz in the last 37 years. But the previous two wins were both at home. The Lakers’ road record is 11-26 SU and they are without their two superstars right now. I know this is a big number to lay with a team on a five-game losing streak, but Utah should be supremely motivated to handle its business here and is #2 in points per game at home in the league (116.3). Again, they were up 25 on the Clippers the other night. The Lakers just lost by 18. This should be a massive beatdown. 8* Utah

10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): It promises to be a VERY interesting finish at the top of the Eastern Conference. Four teams are separated by two games and the defending NBA Champs are right in the mix, one game out of the top spot. I had Milwaukee Tuesday night in Philadelphia as they escaped with a 118-116 win. This team has now won 11 of its last 14, but all three losses have been on the road and four times in the last six games they’ve given up at least 116 points. This time, I’m going to fade the Bucks on the road as they head to Brooklyn to face a Nets team that’s also battling for playoff position. 

Brooklyn is now 8-3 SU its last 11 games after running out to a 130-123 win over Detroit on Tuesday. They didn’t cover the spread, which was 14 points, dropping to 8-28 ATS at home this season. But that record is a little misleading in that - until recently - Kyrie Irving was ineligible to play here. But Irving is “in the clear” now. It was Kevin Durant leading the way with 41 points on Tuesday. This is a team that has no issue scoring and will be a very dangerous first round matchup, presuming they make it out of the play-in round. Currently, the Nets are 8th and they want to at least maintain that position so they would only need to win once in the play-in round to make the playoffs proper. 

The Nets won the last meeting, 126-123 in Milwaukee, and that was without Durant. Despite the woeful ATS record at home (it’s a league-worst), I really like the Nets in this spot as I actually think they’re being drastically undervalued on their own floor.  Milwaukee is playing its third straight road game while this will be the third straight game at home for Brooklyn. The Bucks are just 4-9 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. I think they are far more desperate to finish in the top eight than Milwaukee is to finish first. 10* Brooklyn

9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:40 ET): Memphis is clearly now the second best team in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have clinched a playoff spot, surpassed both the Warriors and Jazz in YTD point differential and hold a five-game lead (with six to play) over third place. So this will be the #2 seed in the Western Conference, barring a miracle. That means they’ll face a team that escapes the play-in round in Round 1. Speaking of the play-in round, that’s all the Spurs are hoping for at this point. Last night’s loss by the Lakers moved SA into 10th in the West, a spot they’ll try and hold onto over the next two weeks. 

If you can believe it, Memphis is 18-2 SU this season when Ja Morant doesn’t play. That’s insane. Morant is out again tonight, but it hasn’t mattered as the Grizzlies are averaging a stunning 127.4 points their last five games, all without Morant. They’ve shot better than normal during that stretch, but not astronomically better (48.4%). A big key to the Grizzlies’ success is that they are obviously a deep team. Their second unit logs more minutes per game than any other second unit in the league. You’ve also got Desmond Bane, who has scored 22 or more points in every game since Morant went down. 

San Antonio is NOT a great defensive team, so they should struggle to stop Memphis here. But the Spurs can trade buckets. They are coming off a 123-120 win the other night (in Houston). Dejounte Murray scored a career-high 33 in that game and the thing is the team didn’t shoot all that well (47.0% overall), especially from three-point range (21%). So both teams should be able to maintain recent scoring levels tonight. The total was several points higher when they met last month. There were 126 points scored in the 1H of that last meeting, but it ended up just staying under because of a low-scoring 4Q. Not this time. 9* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over T’wolves/Raptors (7:40 ET): Minnesota has undoubtedly been one of the best teams in the NBA since the All-Star Break. However, having dropped three of their last four games, they seem destined for the play-in round as the seven seed. Entering Wednesday, the T’wolves are two games back of Denver (with six to play) in the race for the six seed. It didn’t help that the T’wolves gave up 134 points in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Defense has not been this team’s strong suit, at least when playing on the road where they have allowed an average of 117.7 PPG this season. That’s a big reason why I’m on the Over here.

Over in the Eastern Conference, Toronto’s prospects of avoiding the play-in round are looking good. They’ve passed Cleveland into sixth and can move back into a fifth place tie with Chicago with a win tonight. The Raptors have won three straight, scoring 115 or more points in every game, and have just two losses over the last three weeks. Now they needed overtime to get the win on Monday, over a short-handed Celtics team that had just beaten Minnesota the day before. But while Pascal Siakam may not match his individual effort (40 points) from Monday here, the team should shoot better than 43.4%. 

Toronto also made just 10 of 39 three-point attempts against Boston, well below their season average of 35%. They shouldn’t have much trouble draining threes here against a Minnesota team that allows opponents to hit 36% from behind the arc, on the road. The T’wolves let Boston shoot 56.3% overall on Sunday. But at the same time, the Raptors will probably also struggle defensively in this matchup. Minnesota averages 117.9 PPG itself on the road, so it should be no shock that the Over is 28-10 in all of their away games this season. The Over is 15-7 in Toronto’s last 22 home games. 10* Over T’wolves/Raptors

10* Under Washington St/Texas A&M (9:30 ET): So I’ve had success so far playing Washington State games in the NIT. I took the Under when they beat Santa Clara 63-50 in the opening round, which was quite the defensive performance by Wazzu as they held the Broncos to 26.5 points below their season average. Then came a 75-63 win at SMU, a tough place to play at. Last Wednesday, I was back on the Under train with Wazzu as they beat another WCC team (BYU), 77-58 as a 2.5-point underdog. Pretty clearly, the Cougars have been “locked in” defensively in the NIT, giving up just 57 PPG! 

Texas A&M, who many felt was “snubbed” by the NCAA Tournament, has also seen the Under hit in all three NIT games. The Under has actually hit four straight times for the Aggies, going back to the SEC Tournament Final vs. Tennessee. The difference between them and Wazzu is that all of A&M’s NIT games (previous to this) were played at home. The Aggies have held Alcorn State, Oregon and Wake Forest to an average of 58 PPG, basically right on par with Wazzu. Not overly concerned with A&M’s transition away from College Station as they held Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee all to 65 points or fewer in the SEC Tournament. 

Look for the Under to hit again in this NIT semifinal battle. Washington State is allowing under 20% shooting from behind the three-point line in this tournament, which is just incredible. Texas A&M is not particularly adept at three-point shooting as is evident by the fact they’re down around 25% for the tournament. On the flip side, Washington State isn’t a great shooting team either; they’re hitting just over 40% overall from the field this season and A&M also happens to defend the three-point line well. Both teams play slow and are top 32 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Wash St/Texas A&M

8* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): The Bucks and Sixers are embroiled in what is a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Although I played against Boston last night, I’ve got the Celtics rated as the best of the bunch, followed by the Heat. But then comes the Bucks, the reigning NBA Champs, who will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-102 loss to a Memphis team that was without Ja Morant. Previously, the Bucks had won 10 of 12. I’ve got them rated as the better team than the Sixers, so this short line is not a surprise and I’ll play accordingly. 

Philadelphia has the same 46-28 SU record as Milwaukee, but with an inferior YTD point differential. The Sixers’ point differential is actually worse than seventh place Cleveland, but they are obviously a different team now with James Harden in the mix. Still, they did just lose by 10 at Phoenix on Sunday with Harden shooting 2 of 11 and finishing with only 14 points. I’ll concede the fact that the Sixers have yet to lose B2B games since acquiring Harden, but they’ve also generally faced weak/undermanned opponents when previously in this situation. For what it’s worth, the Sixers are 0-7 ATS on Tuesdays this season. 

Milwaukee has not been healthy most of this season, but they are close to 100 percent right now, which should be concerning for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Like the Sixers, the Bucks have not lost B2B games since February. They are 8-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Off a loss, the Bucks have been better (in terms of scoring differential) than when off a win. When off a double digit loss, the team’s ATS record is 8-4 in 2021-22. I simply believe the road team to be better in this matchup and am banking on them finishing higher in the standings. Therefore, taking the points is a no-brainer (obviously, given the line, I think the Bucks will win SU). 8* Milwaukee

10* Washington (7:10 ET): While there’s a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, also keep an eye on the “next tier” where three teams (Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland) are battling to avoid the play-in round. One of the three will be “odd team out” and finish seventh. As of now, that “odd team out” is Cleveland, though they won last night and are just a game behind the other two. Toronto was also a winner on Monday. Chicago was a loser, blowing a double digit lead and going down 109-104 at the hands of the Knicks. The Bulls are the team I believe will finish as “odd team out.” 

Chicago is lower than Toronto and Cleveland in my power rankings and has the worst YTD point differential of the three. The Bulls, who overachieved in the first half of the season, have only outscored opponents by 0.4 PPG. That gives them an “expected” won-loss record of 38-37 SU. With five more wins than their “expected” win total, the Bulls are actually the biggest overachiever in the league in that regard. Defensively, they’ve fallen off a cliff since the All-Star Break, and the result is a 4-11 SU record in their L15 games. On the second night of a back to back, I can’t see how this team is favored on the road. 

Washington has won B2B games for the first time in forever. They shot a season-best 57.1% from three-point range in the 123-115 victory over Golden State on Sunday. While I do not think the Wizards will be able to match that lofty percentage here, they should still shoot well against a Bulls team that is giving up 112.5 PPG on the road this season. The Wiz are still technically alive for the playoffs, so don’t expect them to roll over. They’ve won two in a row as dogs and now have two more winnable home games on the docket (host Orlando tomorrow). Take the points. 10* Washington

8* Portland (10:10 ET): The Blazers may officially be at “rock-bottom” right now as they are coming off back to back losses, both at home, to Houston. The team has won just twice since the All-Star Break (in 15 tries), is without Damian Lillard for the rest of the season, and is now bottom five in my power ratings. But something will have to give here as Portland hosts an Oklahoma City team that has just three wins since the Break and two of them came before March 3rd. The Thunder have lost 11 of their last 12. 

Now OKC has been covering the spread pretty regularly. They come into tonight on a six-game ATS win streak. However, they were underdogs in all six of those contests. Tonight will be just the THIRD time all season that the Thunder are favored to win and the FIRST on the road. This is a team that is 11-26 SU away from home and scoring just 102.5 PPG. The Thunder are 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in scoring. GETTING points to go against them on the road is a gift, no matter who the opponent may be. 

Earlier I mentioned that the Blazers don’t have Lillard. Well, OKC has been without its top scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for three of the past four games and there is talk the team may “shut him down” for the remainder of the regular season. The Thunder had just nine players available on Saturday when they lost 113-107 in Denver. The only win for the Thunder in the last three weeks came at home against an Orlando team that is tied for the worst record in the league. At home, Portland plays with pride tonight. 8* Portland

10* Toronto (7:40 ET): By virtue of picking up their sixth consecutive win last night, 134-112 over Minnesota, Boston is now in first place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won 10 of 11 overall and are #2 overall (behind the Suns) in my personal power rankings. But they probably wish they had Monday off as they come into this game at Toronto with the potential of being extremely short-handed. Al Horford and Robert Williams are already listed as out while both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (65 combined points Sunday) are dealing with sore knees. 

If Boston is the hottest team in the East, then Toronto is not far behind. The Raptors have won 8 of their last 10 games to climb into the top six. With six of their final eight regular season games in Canada, they’ve got an excellent shot at avoiding the play-in round. The team is off one of its highest scoring efforts of the season on Saturday as they destroyed Indiana by a score of 131-91. They were up 28 in the first half and never looked back. 

Though Boston is trying to hold on to the top spot, they are in a tougher spot (back to back) and this one might mean more to the Raptors, who are in a tight three-way race to avoid the play-in round. Toronto also has double revenge after losing the last two meetings to the Celtics. The teams have not met since November. Another key edge for the home team is that they will be at full strength. Everything sets up beautifully for the Raptors. 10* Toronto

8* Under Celtics/Raptors (7:40 ET): I also like the Under here. The Celtics shot 56.3% from the floor last night and made 17 threes. Don’t expect them to match those numbers in the second night of a back to back, especially if they end up being extremely undermanned. On the flip side, the Raptors are off their third highest-scoring effort of the season and won’t be able to match their offensive output from the last game either. They shot 60.9% from the field and were 15 of 32 from three-point range. 

While I do like Toronto to cover the spread here, look for Boston to play better defense than they did last night vs. Minnesota. The Celtics are #1 in the league in scoring defense and efficiency. The T’wolves, who play at the fastest pace in the league, shot 53.6% overall and were 14 of 32 from behind the arc last night. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in the league in pace. Toronto has held three of its last four opponents to 104 points or less. The Under is 10-4 their L14 games and 2-0 this season after their previous two 130+ point efforts. The Under has also hit in all three previous head to head meetings between these teams this season. 8* Under Celtics/Raptors

10* Charlotte (7:40 ET): Brooklyn treated me to a win last night as they routed Miami, 110-95, on the road. But I wouldn’t trust the Nets laying this many points in the second half of a back to back, even though Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) is now eligible to play home games. Credit the Nets for winning seven of their last nine games, but this is a team still destined for the play-in round, same as Sunday’s opponent, who has won six of its last seven games. This seems like a great spot to take the points. 

The Hornets just beat Utah on Friday night, 107-101 as a four-point underdog. That was a game where I cashed the Under. It capped a solid homestand for Charlotte, but the team has also won its last three road games - by an average of more than 20 PPG! The Hornets continued to be underrated by oddsmakers and overlooked by the public. But they are one of the league’s top five scoring teams and when you average 114.7 PPG, you’ll cover more often than not, especially as an underdog. On the road, Charlotte’s scoring average actually goes up to 116.6! 

Brooklyn has been a disaster at home this season, going 8-26 ATS. Most will attribute that to not having Irving, but overall the Nets are just 15-30 ATS when favored, home or road. They are 4-12 ATS when off a double digit win and 3-8 ATS in the second night of a back to back (2-10 straight up). So, no matter what way you look at it, this is a bad spot for the home favorite. They had two days off prior to last night’s game, after previously losing to Ja Morant-less Grizzlies. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Jazz/Mavericks (7:40 ET): Utah has lost three straight, its worst losing streak since a stretch in January when it dropped 11 of 13 games (had a 5-game and 4-game losing skid during that stretch). This recent skid has dropped the Jazz into a fourth place tie with the team they’ll face tonight, Dallas, who is also entering in off a loss. You may recall that I played the Jazz Under the total their last time out and that was an easy win as they and the Hornets combined for only 208 points (O/U line closed at 228). Tonight’s O/U line isn’t quite as high, but the opponent is also better defensively. Going Under again. 

Dallas has seen the Under hit in each of its last three games. As mentioned above, the Mavs’ most recent game was a loss. They fell 116-95 in Minnesota, a result which was doubly bad as it means no ground was gained on Utah and the T’wolves (and Nuggets) are breathing down the Mavs’ neck. Unders are nothing new for Dallas as they are the #1 Under team in the NBA this season and it’s been home games mostly responsible for that. The Under is 26-10-1 in Mavericks’ home games and the primary reason for that is they are allowing an average of just 102.1 PPG here. 

Utah has failed to score its season average in four consecutive contests, which is likely tied to them being without Bojan Bogdanovic, who is their second leading scorer. He’ll again be out on Sunday. The Jazz’s scoring has also always been lower on the road (110.7) compared to the road (116.3). Dallas did not shoot well in Minnesota Friday night, but any gains made at the offensive end tonight will be offset by improvement at the defensive end. They let the T’wolves shoot 51.2%, which was the highest percentage by any Mavs’ opponent since 2/25. When these teams met here in Dallas three weeks ago, the Mavs won 111-103. 8* Under Jazz/Mavericks

10* Over Miami FL/Kansas (2:20 ET): Well, Kansas is certainly the team we expected to be here. The Jayhawks are the only remaining 1-seed in the Tournament after both Gonzaga and Arizona met their demise in the Sweet 16. KU was able to outlast Providence on Friday, winning 66-61. But for the second straight time they did not cover. Against Creighton, Bill Self’s team won 79-72 as a 12.5-point favorite. They closed as 6.5-point favorites against Providence. Here they’ll find themselves in a similar price range against an unlikely upstart, that being 10-seed Miami. 

Honestly, I expected that “The U” would lose in the first round to USC. Boy have the Hurricanes proven me wrong. They beat the Trojans 68-66, holding on after taking a double digit lead in the 1H. Then came a shocking upset of 2-seed Auburn, 79-61 as 6.5-point dogs, thanks to a 2H surge. In the Sweet 16, the Canes were short favorites in an unlikely matchup with Iowa State and controlled from start to finish in a 70-56 win and cover. The team is now 10-3 ATS over its last 13 games, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament and also 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a neutral site underdog. They’ll relish the role they are in on Sunday. 

Over their last six games, Kansas has alternated Overs and Unders. I had the Over in the matchup with Creighton, which ended up 79-72. Shooting was not good - for either side - when the Jayhawks faced Providence. The teams combined to shoot 36.2% overall, including an unsightly 6 of 38 from three-point range. I expect better overall shooting in this game and Kansas probably can’t maintain its current tournament average where opponents are shooting just 34% against them. Similarly, Miami’s last two opponents have shot a woeful 9 of 48 from three-point range! Iowa State attempted only FOUR free throws the entire game, a number Kansas will crush. 10* Over Miami FL/Kansas

10* Over Thunder/Nuggets (9:10 ET): At this point, Denver’s main goal is to hold onto sixth place in the Western Conference. Their lead over seventh place Minnesota is down to one-half game after the T’wolves beat the fifth place Mavs Friday night. Those three teams (Mavs, Nuggets, T’wolves) are all separated by 2.5 games and obviously one of them is going to be “odd team out” when it comes to having to win in the play-in round. For tonight’s game vs. OKC however, I’m more focused on the fact that the Nuggets have gone Over in each of their last five contests. 

Defensively, the Nuggets are allowing 121.4 PPG during the 5-0 Over stretch. They are just 2-3 SU after being blitzed 140-130 here at home by Phoenix Thursday night. I had the Over in that one and obviously it was a (very) easy winner. On the bright side for Denver, they are averaging 120.8 PPG over the L5 games. They shot 59.3% against the Suns (only to allow 60.5% shooting). There should be little issue scoring tonight on a Thunder team that has allowed 120 or more points eight different times here in March, including seven of the last nine games. 

OKC were 118-102 winners in their last game, which was at home against Orlando. That was a much higher scoring game than the previous time the Thunder faced the Magic (on 3/20) where there were just 175 total pts scored (and I cashed the Under). In between the games vs. Orlando, the Thunder got beat 132-123 by Boston. Since March 8th, Orlando is the only team not to score at least 120 against OKC. On the bright side, leading scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could return tonight. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as the Over is 13-3-1 in the Thunder’s L17 games. 10* Over Thunder/Nuggets

9* Over Bulls/Cavs (8:10 ET): This is a critically important game for both teams as it really does feel like one of them is poised to drop out of the top six in the East. Chicago was once on top of the “conference heap” but they have had a brutal second half of the season, losing 10 of their last 13 games. Interestingly, two of the wins came against the Cavs and Raptors, the two teams now directly below them in the standings. Cleveland is tied with Toronto for sixth place as they’ve dropped B2B games. 

Key to the Bulls’ decline has been the defensive end of the floor. Injuries to Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso had a major hand in the defensive decline. Caruso is probable for tonight, but Ball remains out. A bit of positive news is that leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (27.6 PPG) is listed as probable as well. DeRozan missed Thursday’s loss to New Orleans where the team put up only 109 points. Of course, the Bulls also gave up 126 in that game, which was the fourth time in the last five games they allowed 125+ points. 

Cleveland’s last six games have all gone Over the total as there has been major regression on the defensive end here as well. The Cavs have allowed 118.2 PPG their L5 games. At least they are scoring though. Before suffering a 117-104 loss in Toronto on Thursday, the team had scored 113+ in five consecutive games. Given how both teams have been playing at the defensive end of late, I’ve got no choice but to go Over in this one. 9* Over Bulls/Cavs

8* Brooklyn (8:10 ET): The way things stand now in the Eastern Conference, this could be a potential first round playoff series and I think that would be a nightmare matchup for the top-seeded Heat. Brooklyn has obviously underperformed in 2021-22 and just lost to Memphis, who didn’t have Ja Morant available. But the Nets had won six of seven before that, the lone loss coming by two points at home to Dallas on a buzzer-beater (a game the Nets led by double digits going into the 4Q. Kyrie Irving has now been cleared to play in ALL games (NYC has lifted vaccination requirements), so look out for the Nets. 

Irving was always going to be able to play tonight regardless and the Nets will definitely be looking for a similar performance to Thursday when he scored a team-high 43 points. Kevin Durant, who is averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists this year, added 35 in the loss to Memphis. The problem was the Nets’ bench combined to go just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only 11 points. For tonight, it’s looking like Goran Dragic and Seth Curry will be in the lineup, a big boost. 

Of course, it’s hard to win in the NBA when you give up 132 points, which is what Brooklyn did against Memphis. I expect vast improvement at that end of the floor here vs. Miami, who is in a terrible spot after blowing a 17-point 4Q lead last night and losing to the Knicks 111-103. That was the Heat’s third straight loss and they are also 0-6 ATS L6 games. A bad time to go cold on South Beach and second-leading scorer Tyler Herro remains out. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU vs. Miami this year, so this is a huge revenge spot that they’ll be up for. 8* Brooklyn

10* Over Houston/Villanova (6:09 ET): These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the entire country. Both are in the bottom in adjusted tempo per KenPom. So it makes sense that we have a low total for the South Regional Final between Houston and Villanova. But might it be too low? I think so. Houston has had only five games with a lower total, all January 5th or earlier. The last three all went Over. One of the two that didn’t came against Virginia, who plays at an even slower tempo than Villanova. As for ‘Nova, they’ve had only ONE game all year with an O/U line lower than 128. It pushed as they only gave up 42 points. The Wildcats will not hold Houston to 42 points here. 

Villanova has seen its own overall shooting percentage decline with each passing game in this tournament. They shot 50.9% vs. Delaware, then 44.2% vs. Ohio State and finally 37.3% vs. Michigan. Total points have declined from 80 to 71 to 63 as has three point shooting 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0%. Do we really expect offensive numbers to decline across the board for a fourth consecutive game? It hasn’t happened all year. The average number of total points scored in Villanova games this season is 135.2. I believe the Wildcats can score at least 64 here. 

While Villanova’s overall FG% defense has improved with each passing game, teams are hitting better from three, peaking with Michigan’s 34.4% on Thursday. That’s good news for a Houston team that has made over 45% of its threes in two of three tourney games so far. The Cougars are averaging 74 PPG in the tournament. In the last 13 games, the fewest points scored by UH is 61. In the other 12, they scored at least 69. Their average number of total points per game scored this season is 134.7. Looking at the numbers, I simply feel that the value is on the Over here. 10* Over Houston/Villanova