40*

St. Louis Cardinals -137

40* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves OVER 9

Quite honestly, you could blindly bet the over when these two teams meet each other and make a tiny fortune. The over is now an incredible, 40-18-3 in the last 61 meetings. I fully expect this game to go over tonight as well since both teams know each other's pitchers like the back of their hands. The over has cashed in 6 straight starts for Chen vs. the Braves and 5 straight starts for Teheran vs. the Marlins at home. It's supposed to be a hot and humid day so we should see a few balls carry over the fence tonight.

50* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH

Oakland Athletics -118

The Texas Rangers were 429-0 in franchise history when having a 8+ run heading into the 7th inning. In fact, the entire MLB hasn't blown a lead of that nature since 2012. Not anymore...I expect the Rangers to mail it in tonight. It would be one thing if the Rangers were in the playoff hunt or were a solid team...this team has really nothing to play for and will be sellers during the deadline. The pitching has just been dreadful for Texas. They have given up 53 runs in their last 4 losses and have let the A's score 28. I don't think it's going to get any better with Perez on the mound and with all the tired arms out of the bullpen. The A's are rolling it's always a great bet to back a team that is on fire since baseball is the streakiest sport in the world.

50* MLB American League TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers OVER 10.5

This game has all the makings of an over. Both Carrasco and Colon have been torched by the opposing lineups. Both teams last night scored a combined 17 runs and used several bullpen arms as well. It's expected to be over 100 degrees in Arlington tonight which should allow the ball to carry out for some home runs. The Indians and Rangers have now seen 4 straight meetings fly over the total. The X-Factor for this game is the man calling the balls and strikes. Jim Wolf has now called 6 straight overs behind the plate. Bartolo Colon simply can not be squeezed by an umpire. He doesn't throw hard enough and if he can't buy some strikes on the corners, these hitters will destroy him since he will be throwing high 80s fastballs over the middle of the plate.

40*

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees OVER 9

40* 

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5

40* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres OVER 7

Make sure you get the 7 here as a 3-3 game means we can't lose. This play is mainly a fade of Clayton Richard. I loved fading him last year and I expect him to be in for a letdown here, coming off his best performance on Opening Day. These Rockies FEAST off of Richard. The Colorado lineup bats .330 against the lefty and the top bats are crushing, hitting over .500! We also have Fairchild calling the balls and strikes, who is 8-2 to the over calling Padres games. I expect the Padres to do some work here as well. They're hitting over .300 against Gray and have gone over the total in 4 straight.

40* A.L. Wild Card BEST BET

Minnesota Twins +240

You simply have to make this play solely based on a value perspective. We all know that baseball is a strange game and that anything can happen. When playing 3 or 4 game sets, usually the better team does prevail. However, this is winner take all. These Wild Card games are near coin flips when considering an entire 162 game season comes down to ONE game and you're giving me +240!!!! The underdogs have dynamite in these Wild Card games since inception and I believe ALL the pressure is on the Yankees tonight and that is not a good thing.

Luis Severino is going to be making his first start in a playoff game EVER. Not just in the Bigs but in his life. That includes any level of ball. EVERYTHING is riding on Severino here. He has to perform well at HOME at Yankee Stadium in a game they're supposed to roll in. We've seen what the playoff atmosphere can do to great pitchers in the past. Let's not forget that the Twins are a good ball club. This isn't just some cellar team. This team made the playoffs and has their ace on the mound, Ervin Santana, who has been superb on the road. Usually you see this kind of price when Kershaw or Mad Max take on the Padres. Bottomline is that you have to take a chance at +240 in a winner take all scenario. Should the Yankees win? Yes, they're the Yankees. But betting is all about the number and I would make this play every single time if I had to with no regrets.

50* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH

St. Louis Cardinals -150

This is all about fading the Pittsburgh Pirates. Our last MLB release with the Brewers on Wednesday was for the same reasoning and they cashed for us. The Pirates have quit. They are 2-12 in their last 14 games. However, they did win yesterday so they were 1-12...that doesn't sound like a team to me that is motivated. Furthermore, they ARE going to take on a team that is highly motivated in the St. Louis Cardinals.

I love the pitching match up in this one with Wacha and Nova. Wacha has done extremely well against the Pirates this season posting a 2.79 ERA and he shut them down the last meeting on the 10th. Ivan Nova has been lit up his last 4 starts, allowing 16 runs in just 19 innings of work. 

Bottomline is that the Cardinals and Wacha take care of business when playing the bad teams of the MLB. St. Louis is 14-3 their last 17 facing a team with a losing record and Wacha is 20-7.

40* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

Texas Rangers -109

This pay mainly is a fade of Felix Hernandez. He's coming off another shoulder surgery and its usually a great bet to play against pitchers returning from the DL. Regardless of the injury, Felix has been dreadful this season. He's been prone to the long ball and has really struggled going deep into games. 

Although Andrew Cashner isn't my favorite pitcher by any standards, he has pitched well in recent form posting a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. Several books I have checked with have high ticket counts on the Mariners tonight but the big money is coming in on the home team here.

40* 

San Diego Padres -109

50*

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds OVER 10.5

50* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH

Arizona Diamondbacks -109

40* MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY

San Diego Padres -108

40* MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY

Pittsburgh Pirates -135

40* MLB UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Rays +110

40*

Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics OVER 9.5

40*

New York Yankees +108

50* One & Only A.L. GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas City Royals -132

This game is a no brainer for me. We get the hottest team in baseball against my favorite play against pitcher in the game, Ubaldo Jimenez. At any moment, Ubaldo can lose command and get totally rocked. 

Everything here says KC. Their bats are coming alive and they have won 10 of their last 11 games. They've also won 8 straight vs. teams with a losing record, whereas the Orioles are just 8-21 facing a team with a winning record.

Another key here is that many of the big bats for the Orioles are ice cold against KC starter Duffy Duffy. The current Orioles are batting .182 as team. Smith, Machado, Jones, and Davis are a combined 4 for 46 against the Lefty.

40* MLB ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE OF THE MONTH

Kansas City Royals +165

How on earth is a team that has won 8 in a row nearly a 2 to 1 underdog? You have to take this bet simply on a value perspective. If it makes you feel more comfortable, go ahead and take the insurance on the run line.

Like I said before, The Royals have reeled of 8 straight wins. Baseball is as streaky as it gets and I love to fade the losing streaks and play on the winning streaks. Their bats are hot as a firecracker right now. They're averaging nearly 8 runs a game during their win streak. What makes it even better is that KC sends their best starter to the mound tonight in Jason Vargas. Kansas City has won 22 of Jason's last 29 starts and they have also won 4 straight on the road.

As for Boston, we're fading the cold. They are 1-4 their last 5 games and are just 1-6 in the next game following a win. 

*There was a pitching change in this game. For what it's worth, we like this game even better now with Price out and Porcello in*

50* A.L. East GAME OF THE YEAR

New York Yankees -112

Chris Archer has become an auto fade when facing winning teams on the road, especially the Yankees. The Rays are 3-13 in Archer's last 16 starts on the road when facing a team with a winning record. Archer is also just 1-6 with an ERA close to 4 in his last 8 starts vs. the Yankees.

Sabathia has been the polar opposite when facing the Rays. He is 2-0 with this season vs. Tampa Bay, allowing just 1 run. C.C. and the Yankees have also won 7 straight of his starts against the Rays. Furthermore, Tampa Bay is the 7th worst team in baseball against the southpaws.

I also like the fact the Yankees got to stay home after a day game yesterday while Tampa Bay had to travel to New York where they have been dreadful, losers of 18 of their last 24 there.

40*

Kansas City Royals +109

50* MLB VEGAS INSIDER

Miami Marlin +120

40* MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY

New York Mets -160

40* MLB TOP PLAY PARLAY

Houston Astros -145

40* MLB TOP PLAY TRIFECTA

Arizona Diamondbacks -105

40* MLB TOP PLAY TRIFECTA

Baltimore Orioles +112

40* MLB TOP PLAY TRIFECTA

Toronto Blue Jays +113

40*

Kansas City Royals +100

50* N.L TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals OVER 9

Familiarity is usually a great recipe for an over and that's what we have tonight. Both the Nats and the Braves have seen a ton of the opposing pitchers and have had great success. Both lineups are crushing these hurlers as the Nats are hitting .371 off of Foltynewicz and the Braves are hitting .320 off Gio.

Another key is that Gio has thrown a ton of pitches lately and that Nationals bullpen is a complete train wreck. Add in the fact that Gio has gone over the total in 4 straight starts against the Braves and Atlanta and Washington have eclipsed the total in 19 of the 26 meetings.

40*

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5

50* MLB Day Game MAX BET

Washington Nationals -110

50* I.L. GAME OF THE MONTH

Pittsburgh Pirates -125

40* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

San Diego Padres -105

40* MLB TOP PLAY TOTAL

Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres OVER 8.5

50* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 8

40* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

New York Yankees -123

50* National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies OVER 11.5

40*

Colorado Rockies -156

40* MLB SLUGFEST OF THE WEEK

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves OVER 9.5

50* A.L. GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Astros -126

We're going with the oldest trick in the book here. You ride the hot streaks and fade the cold spells. Well, the Astros are the best team in baseball right now, reeling off 10 straight wins and are a 21-6 on the road. This team has video game numbers. They are ranked #1 or #2 in almost ALL of the offensive AND pitching categories. They are going up against a Royals team that can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag and their starter tonight (Kennedy) is dreadful. The Royals are in a 3-26 combined spot with Kennedy on the mound tonight. Remember what we said about riding the hot and fading the cold? This game is both and we're going large on it.

40*

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 6.5

40* MLB TOP PLAY

Colorado Rockies -127

50* MLB MAX BET

Detroit Tigers -121

The Orioles are in a bit of a skid right now, losers of 4 straight. They are also just 1-4 their last 5 games facing southpaws. The big key to this play is Wade Miley. He always has the ability to get rocked and even more so tonight, as he threw nearly 120 pitches his last outing. 

The Tigers have the advantage on the mound with Boyd as he has much better numbers at home and NONE of the Orioles hitters have seen him. Always have preached that the pitcher has upper hand the first time. Detroit is also rested and they are 14-3 following an off day.

50* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH

Chicago White Sox -128

Loving this cheap price to fade the Padres on the road. It's been one of the safest bets you can make in the MLB. San Diego is currently 17-43 in their last 60 games on the road and they have lost 7 of their last 8. Jhoulys Chacin gets the nod for the Padres and although he has been exceptional at Petco park, he has been getting torched on the road. He has an ERA of 10.71 in 4 road starts this year and what's remarkable is that 3 of these parks are known as pitcher friendly. 

The White Sox send Miguel Gonzalez to the mound and just like Chacin, he has completely different home and road splits. He hasn't done that great on the road but we get him at home, where he has been stellar. Gonzalez's is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.29 at US Cellular Field. Chicago has also won 5 straight home starts by Gonzalez. 

50* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5

I like UNDER 3.5 1st Five Innings and UNDER 23.5 Hits + Runs + Errors, as well.

We have Kershaw on the bump and he obviously doesn't need a huge explanation but I will say this; The Dodgers have gone under the total in 15 of Kershaw's last 17 starts in San Francisco and 21-4-2 overall. The Giants send lefty Ty Blach to the mound tonight and my long term guys know that we love fading the Dodgers against LHP. The current Dodgers batters are batting an abysmal 1-18 vs. Blach. In fact, both teams rank in the Bottom 10 in the MLB against left handed pitching. To top this all off, we have an under umpire behind the dish as well.

40* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

Colorado Rockies +102

Taking another NL West home underdog here. This game is almost a mirror image of our NL GOM winner on the Diamondbacks last night. The visitors have not been playing well and aren't hitting southpaws, going 5-11. The Giants send Jeff Samardzija to the mound and this has not been a recipe for success, especially against the Rockies. The Giants are 1-10 in Samardzijas last 11 starts facing a team with a winning record and they are 5-16 in his last 21 starts overall. The big Rockies bats have FEASTED off of Jeff in his career. The top part of this lineup are all batting .300+ against the right hander. 

Final note. Giants are 6-12 and 3-8 on the road. The Rockies are 12-6 and 5-3 at home and they're PLUS money. We LOVE home underdogs and we're taking another one this weekend heavy. 

50* N.L. GAME OF THE MONTH

Arizona Diamondbacks +105

The Diamondbacks are 7-1 at home this season and 15-3 their last 18 overall, facing a team that's 2-5 on the road, and we get them at plus money. Arizona is hot out of the gates, boasting the #1 offense in the Majors.

A big part of this play is that they have a southpaw on the hill. The Dodgers are down right anemic facing LHP and have become auto-fade material. They are 3-12 their last 15 games facing left handed pitching.

Maeda got off to a hot start last year but I believe he is due to regress. We are big believers of the pitcher having the advantage the first time an opposing team sees them and that's why he had so much success last year. The D'backs torched the Dodgers pen last night so they won't have fresh arms late in the game. I love taking home underdogs in baseball and what better one to take than an underdog that is 7-1. 

40*

Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres OVER 7.5

40*

Oakland Athletics +132

40*

Seattle Mariners -136

40*

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees OVER 8

40*

Arizona Diamondbacks -106

40*

Baltimore Orioles +102

50*

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5

This is a really rare day. Not only does today feature 4 of my favorite over pitchers, but they are FACING each other. It doesn't get much better than that. We have 4 great lineups as well. Only reason the Indians game is rated a 4% play and the Angels game is 5% because of the Indians bullpen. However, Chase Field is my 2nd favorite hitter friendly park (#1 Coors Field) and that should greatly benefit us here.

40*

Cleveland Indians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

This is a really rare day. Not only does today feature 4 of my favorite over pitchers, but they are FACING each other. It doesn't get much better than that. We have 4 great lineups as well. Only reason the Indians game is rated a 4% play and the Angels game is 5% because of the Indians bullpen. However, Chase Field is my 2nd favorite hitter friendly park (#1 Coors Field) and that should greatly benefit us here.

5* MLB MAX BET

Chicago Cubs -111

5* One & Only MLB GAME OF THE YEAR

Chicago Cubs -195

I know this is a lot of juice and if you don't want to lay this price, there are plenty of solid ML parlay positions to take. Alabama/New England are a couple.

The Dodgers threw everything and the kitchen sink at the Nationals on Thursday and they barely escaped with the victory. Their bullpen has got to be shot with how much they were used in Game 5 and the NLDS. I also expect them to suffer a bit of a letdown coming off a huge road win.

The monumental factor that has us on the Cubs tonight is the Dodger's inability against LHP. This team is historically bad against lefties. They rank dead last in almost every offensive category by a wide margin. They go up against one of the best southpaws in the game tonight in Jon Lester. This guy has allowed just 1 earned run in 15 innings pitched this season vs. the Dodgers. Los Angeles has lost 10 of their last 11 road games against a left hand starter and 8 straight NLCS road games. The Cubs and Lester have won 8 straight home games facing a team with a winning record.

5* MLB MAX BET

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6

Like the NL Wild Card game, I believe the better play here is the Hits+Runs+Errors UNDER 22. For grading purposes, it will be the under 6. 

Arrieta vs. Bumgarner. Need I say more? I could go on for days with stats and trends about these two pitchers but why? We know Bumgarner is the KING of the playoffs. Another huge key here is that the man calling the balls and strikes is on an under tear, with 7 straight unders. Look, some may fear about Jake Arrieta struggling a bit lately as he is coming off his worst start of the season. More often than not, big league pitchers bounce back well after their worst start of the year. This is the playoffs and you must bring your A game against MadBum. Expect a pitchers duel in this one.

4* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

San Francisco Giants +166

This game is all about the price. Johnny Cueto and the Giants are +166 in the playoffs?! That is just way too high. ALL the pressure is on the Cubs here to perform in front of their home fans and have the "curse" swirling over their heads. We have seen it too often in the MLB Post-season where the Wild Card team comes in hot and steals game 1, or even the series, from the Top Seed. Just look at what happened to the Rangers Thursday.

The Cubs haven't played meaningful baseball in a while, having the best record early on. They could be a bit sluggish/jumpy in this game. The Giants have been playing "playoff" baseball since the last week of the season and come in with a TON of confidence. One thing I have learned over the last few seasons is that you don't bet against Bruce Bochy in October. The Giants have won 7 straight Divisional road Playoff games. This team excels away from home and I expect that streak to stay alive after tonight.

5* N.L. WILD CARD MAX BET

San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets UNDER 6

For record keeping purposes, the under 6 runs for the game will be graded. However, the better play here is taking the UNDER Hit+Runs+Errors. 

Madison Bumgarner is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.80 lifetime against the Mets. Noah Syndergaard's last outing against the Giants was as good as it gets. He had 11 strikeouts through 8 shutout innings. These guys are close to untouchable and they are facing two anemic offenses. Both teams rank towards the bottom in almost every hitting category. This includes: Runs per game, team batting average, batting average with RISP,  and runners LOB (left of base) per game. The Giants rank 26th in baseball hitting on the road and the Mets rank 26th hitting at home. 

Although I expect both starters to go deep into this game, the season is on the line with this being winner-take-all. Both managers won't worry about "wasting" arms out of the bullpen and will pull out all the stops to survive and advance.

I do like the Giants also simply because of Bumgarner. This guy could be the best post-season pitcher of the last 30 years. How can you bet against him? 

5* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins UNDER 7

Guess who has tossed the most games with 7 shutout innings in baseball? Yup, its TANNER ROARK! This guy has flown completely under the radar. He is sporting the 5th best ERA in the Majors. He is in spectacular form of late. In his last 4 starts, he has 23 strikeouts and an ERA of 1.08. Also, in his last 10 starts, he has allowed more than 3 runs just once. 

We all know how dominant Jose Fernandez can be, especially at home. He is 11-2 with an ERA of 1.77. He has done even better against Washington. In 3 starts this year, he has allowed 3 runs vs. the Nationals. That's 3 runs in 19 innings pitched.

From a trends stand point, they are loud and clear for the under. The Nationals have gone under in 4 straight starts for Roark in Miami. Fernandez and the Marlins have gone under in 4 straight home games against Washington. The Nationals have gone under in 11 of their last 13 road games and the Marlins have gone under in 15 of their last 19 home games. The under is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings in Miami and the under is 11-2-1 in the last 14 meetings overall. 

Bottomline here is that when these two teams play each other, pitching is on display and its tough to score runs. It takes 8 runs to beat us here in this pitcher friendly park. All signs point to the under and we're making this our strongest totals bet of the year.

4* MLB TOP PLAY DESTRUCTION

Colorado Rockies -154

It's gone a bit under the radar but Chad Bettis has been a superstar lately for the Rockies and the lone bright spot in their rotation. In his last 3 starts, the Rockies are 3-0 and he has posted a WHIP of .57! It doesn't get any better than that folks. Cosart, on the other hand, has been a train wreck. He really struggles with his command and gets bit by the long ball a ton. That's a recipe for disaster in Colorado.

Bottomline here is that the Padres lose when Cosart pitches and the Rockies win the Bettis takes the mound. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 6 with Cosart; Bettis and the Rockies are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 at home.

4*

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers OVER 9

Two terrific offenses and two over pitchers. There are always a ton of runs scored when either Duffey or Sanchez takes the mound but tonight they face each other. They are a combined 33-15 to the over and each team is a combined 76-29 to the over in 105 games. How is this not a slugfest? The Twins are one of the best over teams in the league, going 89-48-8 on the season. 

5* MLB Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH

Cleveland Indians +108

I like the Indians to bounce back tonight off a loss. The big key here is that the Tribe dominates LHP. They are 29-16 on the year and 26-10 in their last 36, against lefties. They face southpaw, Jose Quintana tonight. Quintana has struggled of late, giving up 11 runs in his last 2 starts. The Indians have also won 4 of their last 5 games against him. Another eye opening stat here is that the White Sox are just 6-13 following a win but the Indians are 11-4 following a loss. Cleveland usually bounces back and the White Sox usually fall flat. It's not often you get the Indians as an underdog vs. LHP but we do tonight and we'll gladly take them as your top dog of the month.

4* TOP PLAY

Miami Marlins RL +1.5

I also LOVE the UNDER (3.5) 1st FIVE innings here.

This game is almost certain to be low scoring and a 1 run game either way. Taking the +1.5 with a projected low scoring game is the way to go. Kershaw has been known to get ZERO run support.

4* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5

The game is a trend lovers dream. Every, and I mean every, trend says over here. Even the umpire, Adrian Johnson, is the king of overs. His games are 20-5-3 to the over, which includes 6 straight. The umpire is extremely important with totals because the difference between a 2-1 and a 1-2 count in astronomical. The Braves have become an over team with 15 of their last 19 games eclipsing the number and both pitchers tonight are a combined 10-2 to the over in their last 12 starts. With this being a hot, less humid, day game with the wind blowing out in Atlanta, these home run prone pitchers should get rocked today.

5* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH

St. Louis Cardinals -135

It's really a strange thing but the St. Louis Cardinals are much better on the road than they are at home. They are actually the best in the bigs as the visitors this season. What makes this even more strange is that Carlos Martinez, tonight's probable starter, is a much better pitcher on the road as well. The Cardinals favorite place to play is Miller Park. They have enjoyed a ton of success there over the years. They are 29-12 there and 57-27 in the last 84 meetings overall.

St. Louis needs a big series win here against Milwaukee after dropping the series to Oakland. I expect them to blowout the Brew Crew tonight with Davies on the mound. Davies is in terrible form of late as he is sporting a WHIP of 1.87 and an ERA of 7.80 in his last 3 starts. With Martinez going 4-0 in his last 4 starts at Miller Park, this price is cheap and good enough for our top NL play of the month.

4* MLB SLUGFEST

Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10

You would be foolish to take an under in any Diamondbacks game now. All aspects of their pitching is terrible from their starters to that awful bullpen. The over is 21-5 in the D'backs last 26 home games and 12-4 when facing LHP. Another key trend here is that they have gone over the total in 6 straight games after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. This shows that the offense really steps it up after a poor effort. 

The Reds have turned into a dead nuts over team as well. 11 of their last 12 games have flown over facing RHP and Cincy is 10-3 to the over their last 13 games. Both starting pitchers have two glaring issues. Finnegan struggles with command and gives up too many walks and Shipley constantly gets taken deep. He's also allowed 13 runs in his last 2 starts. Two high powered offenses and two terrible pitching staffs puts us on this over tonight.

5* MAX BET PARLAY

THIS IS A PARLAY

Washington Nationals -205 + Toronto Blue Jays -255 = +107 odds

Two gigantic pitching mismatches and two teams coming off bad losses last night. I've always loved fading Weaver and Ubaldo, especially on the road and that's what we have here tonight.

If you don't want to do the parlay, I believe Toronto has the best chance to cover the run-line because Weaver is the worst veteran starter in the game.

4* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9

We're fading two pitchers here that have been in dreadful form of late. Both Nelson and Bettis are allowing nearly 2 runners to reach an inning in their last 3 starts and their ERAs are 6.43 and 9.42 respectively. The Brewers have lost 6 straight of Nelson's starts and he has allowed 21 runs in his last 4, which includes three, 6 run outings. Bettis has not done well on the road. He has allowed 17 runs in his last 5 road starts. 

As for the trends, The Rockies have gone over the total in 4 straight road games and the Brewers have gone over in 4 straight home games. The Rockies are averaging nearly 7 runs a game in their last 5 and 10 games. The Rockies have seen 7 of their last 8 games go over the total facing right handers. The over has cashed in 8 of the last 10 games in Milwaukee between these two clubs and is 33-15-4 in the last 52.

5* AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR

Texas Rangers -135

A big key here is how each team performs, with their pitchers, in this situation. The Rangers have won 10 of their last 11 games facing a team with a losing record and Cole Hamels has won 17 of his last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rays are just 15-36 facing a team with a winning record and Matt Andriese has lost 7 straight vs. a team with a winning record.

Cole Hamels comes off one of his worst performances of the season. Although he only allowed 2 runs, he gave up a ridiculous 14 hits. I expect Hamels to bounce back in a big way tonight, especially against this inept Rays' lineup that only has 2 guys batting over .280. The Rays are only batting .194 over their 5 games and .182 over their last 10 games facing southpaws.

Since returning to the rotation, Andriese has been awful. He doesn't go deep into ball games and he is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.59. He gave up 4 home runs in his last outing and that is a recipe for disaster against this powerful Rangers lineup.

Bottomline here is that the Rangers win when Hamels pitches and the Rays lose when Andriese takes the mound. This price is cheap and anything less than -150 is a steal. 

4* MLB TOP PLAY SHOCKER

Kansas City Royals -102

Don't know Animal Sanchez can be a favorite. His team has lost 12 of his last 13 starts. KC is hot right now and Detroit is not. KC has won 3 straight and 8 of 10. The Tigers have gone 2-7 over their last 9 games. Detroit is also banged up and their lineup is pretty feeble at best.

5* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians OVER 9

Two pitchers in dreadful form right now in Bauer and Weaver. I've always loved fading Weaver or taking the over when he pitches. Weaver has allowed 10 runs in his past 2 road starts and is currently sporting a WHIP of 1.47 on the season and 1.62 in his lat 3 games. Allowing nearly 2 runners to reach an inning against the hot hotting Indians right now, who have scored 32 runs in their last 3 games, is a recipe for disaster. 

Trevor Bauer did have a solid outing his last start but he has been down right dreadful prior to that.  He allowed 7 runs in his last home start and 22 runs in his last 5 starts. His WHIP in those games in 1.82. That's Timmy Lincecum type numbers haha (Means awful.) The over is 6-2 the last 8 meetings and both lineups have had tremendous success against each starting pitcher today. 

5* AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners OVER 8.5

When's the last time you have seen King Felix with a total this high at home? Right there it should tell you something's up with this game. The obvious reason is Tim Lincecum. He has been the worst starter in the big leagues. His numbers are some of the worst I've ever seen. Post All-Star Break, Tim has an ERA of 11.91, a WHIP of 2.74, 10 walks, and opponents are hitting .404 off him. 

Felix Hernandez is typically known for being the total shut down ace but lately he has been anything but. He has given up 17 runs in his last 4 starts which includes 9 walks. He has also faced the Halos twice this season and each time he surrendered 3 runs, so this Angels lineup knows him well.

Given the recent form of these two pitchers and the amount their bullpens have been used the last few games, it's hard not to see a ton of runs being put up by these offenses tonight.

5* MLB VEGAS INSIDER

Oakland Athletics +113

Simply put, the A's win with Graveman on the mound and the Angels lose with Weaver toeing the rubber. The Athletics are 8-1 in Graveman's last 9 starts and they are 5-0 when facing a team with a losing record. The Angels are just 2-7 in Weaver's last 9 starts facing a team with a losing record and are 1-4 in his last 5 starts against Oakland. 

Jared Weaver just doesn't have it any more. He has lost a ton of velocity and control of his fastball. He has struggled with walking batters and it's caused him to be prone to the blowup inning. Weaver either gets destroyed or gets lucky. He did give up only 1 run in his last start but he got hit HARD against Boston. Weaver's WHIP is telling on how well he is actually pitching. He is allowing almost 2 runners to reach base an inning. That's going to catch up too you. When he hasn't been so lucky, he has given up 4+ runs in 5 of his last 9 starts, which includes a 5 run and 3 six run outings.

I will update the market move on this game in the morning but currently this line opened at -130 and has dropped 10 cents in some spots with 70% of the action on the home team and I expect it to drop even more.

5* American League GAME OF THE MONTH

Detroit Tigers -137

We've been riding the Tigers lately when they face opposing pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30+. You know why? It's because they are 15-3. Detroit is starting to heat up. They have scored 31 runs during their current four game win streak. Justin Verlander is starting to find his old form again as well. He is now 3-0 with an ERA of 1.60 in his last 5 starts and he has also been stellar against Houston in his career (3-0 and BAA of .203.)  

The Astros have been historically terrible facing good teams on the road and in Detroit. They have lost 12 of their last 16 in Detroit and are 57-130 facing a team with a winning record on the road. 

4* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5

These two pitchers are STUDS and they both have had 6 days off before today's start. Strasburg got shelled his last outing, so I expect him to come out on fire for this one. Carrasco has been one of the best starters in the game lately. He has an ERA of 1.56 in his last 8 starts. This is also his first appearance against the Nats and the advantage almost always goes to the pitcher in that spot. We have an under (pitcher friendly) umpire for this game and I expect both guys to really step up their games here, knowing that just a couple of runs could mean an L for them.

4* MLB TOP PLAY SHOCKER

Cincinnati Reds +137

The San Francisco Giants are ice cold right now. They have 1 win since returning from the break and clearly should have lost that game as well. A big problem is their offense. Their hitting is just atrocious right now, going 9-72 with RISP (runners in scoring position.) I don't think they're going to have much success tonight either going up against the Reds' best starter in Anthony Desclafani. This guy has been money. He is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.50.  

The Giants send out Jake Peavy and he is a ticking time bomb. I don't know how anyone can confidently put money on this guy. Yes, the Giants could win this game but it would make you sweat bullets backing him. The Reds have been knocking the cover off the ball lately and that is not a good sign for Peavy because they handed him his worst loss of the season this year, allowing 7 earned runs. 

As strange as it may seem, the Reds have won 10 of the their last 12 and 12 of their last 16 games in San Francisco. I'll gladly back the better pitcher and hotter hitting team here for plus money. 

5* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Astros -147

Where do I even begin with this game? Everything here tells me the Astros are the right side. Even all of my close sources have said "Astros heavy" when discussing Monday's card. Houston is clicking on all cylinders right now and are hitting the crap out of the ball. They have currently won 21 of their last 27 home games and they are unstoppable at home with Keuchel on the mound. The Astros are 13-3 vs. winning competition and are 24-6 at Minute Maid Park with Dallas toeing the rubber. 

Now let's talk about the Yankees. This team struggles on the road, both against winning teams and versus southpaws. They are 6-13 and 5-12 respectively. They are sending out Pineda to the mound and he has a very hard time putting back to back solid outings together. He is just 2-7 following a Quality Start in his last appearance. 

Bottomline here is that even though this game is a bit chalky, I feel that it's a steal with the hot Astros and Keuchel. If Dallas Keuchel didn't start off the season in a rough patch, this game would easily be close to -200. All of last year he was in that price range at home. Remember, this team is good guys. They were oh so close from taking out the World Champs in the ALDS in 2015. When this team is rolling, they are for sure Title Contenders.

50* MLB MAX BET

Detroit Tigers -145

This is a monumental pitching mis-match. Michael Fulmer has been outstanding for the Tigers. This A.L. ROY Front Runner is sporting an ERA of 0.69 and is 7-1 over his last 10 starts. He is also stellar on the road with an ERA of just above 2. Countering is Jacob Turner for the White Sox, who is filling in for Rodon. This kid got shelled his first outing and should get pummeled here by this potent Tigers line-up.

Detroit continues to dominate mediocre pitching as they are 11-2 facing a pitcher with a WHIP above 1.30. They have also won 11 of their last 12 games with Fulmer on the bump. The White Sox are currently in a downward spiral, losers of 7 of their last 8 and there's nothing here that supports the South side.

50* MLB Run-Line GAME OF THE YEAR

St. Louis Cardinals RL -1.5

Nothing here says San Diego to me. St. Louis has now won 3 straight vs. the Padres, outscoring them 17-6 in the process. Thursday brings Game 4 of the series and San Diego has been extremely bad in Game 4's. They have won just 1 of their last 10. Just look at the pitching match-up here. Andrew Cashner? Yes, he had a solid outing against Bumgarner his last start but I expect a big time regression tonight. Cashner has lost 5 straight road starts against winning competition and is 1-4 following a Quality start. I love this stat for pitchers because it shows how well they do after a solid outing. Clearly Cashner can't put back to back good starts together. Guess who is 39-14 following a Quality start? Yup, Adam Wainwright.

The 2nd half of the season is where the St. Louis Cardinals shine. We see it year after year. The Red Birds turn it on and make an outstanding run into the post-season. Both long term and short term numbers show that St. Louis has always been great at taking care of business against the teams they should beat (opponents with losing record.) Wainwright has now won 5 straight home starts against San Diego and I fully expect him to be 6-0 after tonight. 

40* MLB BEST BET (NY/BAL)

New York Yankees -158

A lot of talk around will the Yankees be buyers or sellers on this upcoming trade deadline. The Yankees have now won 3 straight and 5 of 7. It looks like the players want to keep going. The Bronx Bombers have completely shut down the division leading Orioles the last 2 games as they can not hit their way out of a wet paper bag right now. Pineda gets the call for the Yankees and even though he hasn't done well lately, I expect a solid performance from him tonight because his job is on the line. He's been quoted saying he wants to stay in New York and the perfect way to convince the front office to keep you is to shut down the division leaders. If he gets roughed up tonight, bye-bye Pineda. Sources and other handicappers I have spoken with LOVE the Yankees here.

This line has jumped nearly a dollar now. Consider doing a ML Parlay with New York and Boston

40* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Boston Red Sox RL -1.5

Consider laying part of your wager on the money-line. I like to do that when laying the RL because it's like you're getting -1 instead of -1.5.

Jake Peavy is a ticking time bomb. Every once in awhile he can pull out a solid performance, but more often than not, this guy gets lit up. He really needs to pitch in a big park. Fenway in the summer is the last place he needs to be. Peavy is 0-9 on the road facing a team with a winning record. Guess who is 9-0 at home? Yup, Porcello and the Sox. That's an 18-0 combined spot. The Giants are also just 5-22 on the road facing a team with a winning record. We have a team and pitcher that struggles mightily on the road facing a team that leads the league in offense and is dynamite at home...Red Sox big.

40* MLB VEGAS INSIDER

Kansas City Royals +131

It's almost always a good bet to back KC at home (28-13), especially as an underdog. What makes this even better is that the Royals own Kluber at the K, winning 5 straight starts. Kluber has also won just 4 road starts, out of his last 15 tries, facing a team with a winning record. Another thing going for us is the tough spot for Cleveland, having to play until 2am Saturday Night from the rain delay and then an early game Sunday. The Tribe was rolling a few weeks ago, as they won 14 in a row but since then, they have cooled off and are just 5-7. Almost every handicapper or "source" that I have spoken with have the Royals as their best dog on Monday's MLB card. Can't pass up this opportunity for a plus money score.

50* Sunday Night Baseball TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees OVER 8

When first checking this total, it looks as if the bookmakers are begging you to take the under. Two well known Ace pitchers typically have games lined at 6.5 and maybe 7. My long term guys know that I typically follow the pattern of "When a line looks too good to be true or easy, you go the other way." I believe that's what we have here and the numbers back it up.

The Yankees have lit up David Price in his career and the Red Sox have beaten up on Tanaka as well. 6 of the Yankees are hitting over .300 against Price with Headley and Castro feasting off him. New York touched up Price for 12 runs in back-to-back starts in May on 15 hits. Another thing we have going for us over bettors is that AWFUL Red Sox bullpen.

Boston has gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 times facing Tanaka and Tanaka clearly isn't in good form right now. Even though the Yankees have won the last 3 of his starts, he is sporting a WHIP above 1.50 and an ERA of nearly 5. He is benefitting from a ton of run support and that's exactly what we want here tonight. 

It should be a clear hot night in the Bronx to allow balls to carry and we also have an over umpire behind the dish tonight as 5 of his last 6 games have gone over the total. Typically this means he is a batter friendly umpire and doesn't expand the zone too often.

40* MLB VEGAS INSIDER

Kansas City Royals +101

40* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

New York Mets -150

Awful spot here for the Fish as they had the Sunday Night Baseball game at Fort Bragg last night. They have been to 3 different cities in 3 nights. Atlanta, Fort. Bragg (NC), and New York. They now get to face the red hot Mets, who just swept the Cubbies in four straight, winning 14-3 on Sunday. The Marlins send Koehler to the mound and he has not faired well in his last couple starts, allowing 9 runs and 15 hits in 9 innings. He is also just 2-6 in 15 starts against the Mets. A big key here is that Koehler has lost 6 straight starts facing a team with a winning record and the Mets have won 8 straight in that same situation. I know it has been tough backing Harvey lately but his numbers aren't that bad. Although he hasn't won a game since 6 starts ago, he has given up more than 2 runs just once in those 6 games. I expect Harvey to pitch well here as he has got to be dying for a W. 

40* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Indians -123

Got to ride the hot streak here with the "WINdians." Always a good bet in baseball to ride the hot streaks and fade the cold ones. Cleveland has now won 12 in a row and most of them are blowouts. They get to face RA Dickey tonight who has been dreadful at Rogers Centre of late. The Blue Jays have lost 8 straight home starts of Dickey's. To make matters worse for Toronto, they have to fly back to Toronto from Colorado, playing a very late game (rain delay) on Tuesday and then a day game on Wednesday. Carrasco does have some alarming numbers against the Blue Jays in his career but he is in stellar form and I think he does well tonight as he is sporting an ERA of just 1.95 on the road this season.

50* MLB MAX BET

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8

A big key here is that this game is being played in St. Louis. KC will not have a DH and both pitchers will be forced to bat. Both these teams have been big time under clubs when playing interleague games. They are a combined 29-9 to the under in that situation. 

Carlos Martinez has been close to untouchable recently, going 4-0 with an ERA of 1.93. His last 2 outings he has allowed 1 run but thanks to Rosenthal, he got a no decision in those starts. Another huge advantage for him tonight is that only 2 of the Royals starters have seen him and they both don't have any hits. Lorenzo Cain left Tuesday night's game and is questionable for this one. That's a big blow to this anemic Royals offense, who rank last in the Majors in away runs.

Edinson Volquez was horrific in his last start but I like him to bounce back here. Typically it's a good bet backing a pitcher after a career bad performance. What should help both of our pitchers here is that Ryan Blakney is behind the dish. He is a pitcher friendly umpire and is notorious for his games going under. Right now he is on a 5-1 under run.

40* MLB SLUG-FEST OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres OVER 8.5

Without sugar coating it, these two pitchers are terrible. Before his last outing against the Padres, Jimenez was sporting an ERA of nearly TWELVE, that's right, 12 in his last 7 starts. Johnson isn't much better, he is now 0-3 with an ERA of 9.82, since joining San Diego. He has given up a HR in every start he has had this season and he is facing the historically great home-run hitting team in the Baltimore Orioles. These guys are just 4 long balls away from tying the MLB record for most in June. The O's got him for 2 their last meeting and they shouldn't have any trouble doing that again here. The over has cashed in 11 of 12 interleague home games for the Padres and 7 of the last 8 starts for Ubaldo Jimenez.

50* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH

St. Louis Cardinals -131

Just like our last 50* winner, we're backing a team that is hot and fading a team that is cold. The Cardinals just pulled off the sweep of the Cubbies and have been tearing the cover off the ball away from Busch Stadium. They lead the league in that category, averaging 6.1 runs a game. They also have Carlos Martinez on the bump for tonight's matchup and he has been lights out in recent form. Martinez is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.23 in his last 4 starts and could easily be 4-0 if his bullpen didn't explode and give him the no decision his last outing. He is also 4-1 with an ERA of 1.78 and a WHIP of less than 1 on the road this season.

Seattle has now lost 6 in a row and 10 of their last 12 games. They send journeyman Wade LeBlanc to the mound and even the General Manager doesn't show much confidence in him right now. He was quoted saying "He may not pitch well, but we won't panic." This could get ugly with how hot the Cardinals bat are recently. St. Louis has also won 5 of their last 6 games facing LHP.  

40*

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins OVER 9

40* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

Chicago Cubs -133

Two big keys to this game. Adam Wainwright's road numbers and the exceptional play of the Cubbies after a loss. Wainwright has been dreadful away from Busch Stadium this year. He has given up 17 runs in his last 23 innings pitched and 28 runs in his last 40 innings pitched. 

Chicago is 25-9 at home and haven't lost back-to-back games in a month. They are also 6-0 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. This team is exceptional at bouncing back.

40* MLB UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Royals +100

Well we took a chance with the Indians last night and boy was I wrong. Not making the mistake going against the Royals again, who are 22-7 at home. There is a stat that I dug up about these Royals that is pretty eye opening. KANSAS CITY is 32-11 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in home games when the total is 7.5 or less over the last 2 seasons. KC average margin of victory is 2 runs per game. The KC bats are starting to wake up and they didn't have to use their good arms out of the pen last night. Big time advantage for KC with their bullpen as the Tigers pen is atrocious. Duffy has been stellar going against winning teams as the Royals are 4-0 at home and 6-1 overall. The Tigers have lost 4 straight against LHP as well.

50* MLB INTER-LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR

Toronto Blue Jays -150

Well my long-term guys know what's coming. Jeremy Hellickson may be my all-time favorite pitcher to fade. The Phillies have now lost 4 straight of his starts and has an ERA of just under 6 in that span. What's alarming for Hellickson is his Inter-League play. The Righty is 1-10 with an ERA of 6.69 in 15 starts.

Marco Estrada has been phenomenal, sporting an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.00. This is a big time pitching mis-match here. The Blue Jays have owned the Phillies of late, winning 9 of their last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. The Phillies have also just 2 victories in their last 14 games against winning competition. Hard not to see the hot bats of the Jays get to Hellickson early and often and then destroy their tired bullpen as well.

40* MLB VEGAS INSIDER

New York Yankees -134

The Yankees are hot, winners of 5 straight, and have scored 33 runs during their win streak. Their success should continue here tonight as they have dominated Verlander. Justin Verlander has now lost 8 straight starts in the Bronx. The Yankees counter with Tanaka, who has been terrific this season. New York has now won 5 straight when he's on the bump and he has posted an ERA of 2.76 and has an excellent WHIP of 1.01. The Yankee's bullpen has also been outstanding and if Tanaka gives his guys a solid 6/7 innings, you can pretty much wrap this one up as it's nearly impossible to get a rally going against these guys.

50* AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Orioles -142

This is basic MLB handicapping fundamentals right here folks. Fade the cold streak and ride the hot streak. The Kansas City Royals have now lost 6 straight games and they simply can't get out of their own way. Watching that game last night (we had the over) KC did whatever they could, NOT to score. They have now scored 1 or ZERO runs in 5 straight ball games. The Royals are just 7-19 on the road and have been struggling to beat winning competition. Their bullpen has been over worked in the last few games as well.

The Baltimore Orioles are the exact opposite right now. They are hot, winners of 6 of their last 7 and they are knocking the cover off the ball. A recipe for success has been backing the Orioles when Tillman is on the mound. The O's are 13-3 in Chris Tillman's last 16 starts.

40*

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9

I know they burned us last night with the over but I like them to bounce back offensively here tonight. The Orioles crush fastball throwing RHPs and Jimenez has been awful for the Orioles. Each starter is combined 10-1 to the over. I'm expecting a ton of HRs here and we have an over umpire that has seen 19 of his last 26 games soar over the posted total. The over has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings as well.

40*

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5

When playing MLB totals, my long term clients know that we usually look for solid weather, an umpire that trends towards our selection, and the total trends favor our side. The over has cashed in 9 of the last 10 games with Archer on the mound following a quality start. This shows that he doesn't put back to back solid outings together. The over has also cashed in 7 straight meetings between these clubs. This is also the consensus sharp play of the day.